WorldWideScience

Sample records for real options evaluation

  1. Research into real-option evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Wakamatsu, Hitoshi

    2002-03-01

    As an evaluational method for valuation of a corporation, an investment project, a research and development, or the evaluation technique of an enterprise strategy, a real option analysis attracts attention instead of conventional Discount Cash Flow method. The reason is that it can divert the technique for the option valuation in financial engineering to the decision-making process performed according to change in investment environment. Related references, the analysis tools, the application examples, etc. were investigated about the decision-making technique using real option analysis, and this investigation considered the application method to decision-making of the research and development at Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Consequently, since the feature is in real option analysis being the evaluation technique on condition of that business conditions and business itself also change, the real option analysis fits for evaluation of a research and development that business conditions were opaque and it turns out that the businesses are highly flexible. Moreover, it turns out that it fits also for evaluation of a capital concentration type investment issue like power plants. (author)

  2. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Havlíček

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

  3. Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

    This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

  4. Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

  5. Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

  6. Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

  7. Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Hong

    2005-01-01

    This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

  8. An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

  9. Getting real with real options

    OpenAIRE

    M. R Grasselli

    2006-01-01

    We apply a utility-based method to obtain the value of a finite-time investment opportunity when the underlying real asset is not perfectly correlated to a traded financial asset. Using a discrete-time algorithm to calculate the indifference price for this type of real option, we present numerical examples for the corresponding investment thresholds, in particular highlighting their dependence with respect to correlation and risk aversion.

  10. The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

    2018-03-01

    The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

  11. A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muche, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

  12. Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Náplava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

  13. Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

  14. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  15. Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

  16. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

  17. Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

  18. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

    2012-07-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  19. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

    2012-01-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  20. Real Options Analysis of Mining Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Rudolf Zdravlje

    2011-01-01

    When long life assets are being evaluated based on constant predictions of future variables and the assumptions of zero management flexibility, is value being missed? In project evaluation today, the most common evaluation methods that calculate a net present value are discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. A fourth method, which is beginning to gain ground in terms of its use in the mining industry, is real option analysis (ROA). ROA utilizes ...

  1. THE REAL OPTIONS OF CAPITAL BUDGET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martins

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional techniques of capital budget, as the deducted cash flow and the net value present, do not incorporate existing flexibilities in an investment project, they tend to distort the value of certain investments, mainly those that are considered in scenes of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, this study intends to demonstrate that the Real Options Theory (TOR is a useful methodology to evaluate and to indicate the best option for project of expansion investment. To reach the considered objective the procedure method was used a case study, having as unit of case the Resort Praia Hotel do Litoral Norte of Salvador. This study was developed of the following form: first it identified the traditional net value present and later it was incorporated the volatileness of each analyzed uncertainty. Second, as the real options are analogous to the financial options, it was necessary to identify elements that composed the terminologies of the financial options with intention to get the value of the real option. For this model of options pricing of Black & Scholes jointly with a computational simulator was used (SLS to get the expanded net value present. As a result of this study it was possible to evidence that using the traditional tool of capital budget Net Value Present (VPL is negative, therefore the project of expansion of the Hotel would be rejected. While for the application of methodology TOR the project presents positive Expanded Present Value which would represent an excellent chance of investment. Key-word: Capital budget, Real options, Analysis of investments.

  2. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  3. The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, James S.

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

  4. Valuing of research project in energy field with real options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Blasio, N.; Marzo, G.; Turatto, R.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents an application of real options theory for valuing a research project in the field of stranded gas valorisation. After a presentation of the theory, the analysis addresses the use of real options evaluation for generating alternative pathways in order to add new value to the R D projects. It also shows how real option approach may be important for selecting among competitive projects, but also for providing a system for valorisation of decision-maker flexibility [it

  5. Towards phronetic knowledge for strategic planning in corporate real estate management: A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A promising approach to classifying and evaluating flexibility in real estate is the real options approach. Most

  6. Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heggedal, Ane Marte

    2012-07-01

    This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

  7. Valuing real options: frequently made errors

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández, Pablo

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we analyze frequently made errors when valuing real options. The best way of doing it is through examples. We start by analyzing Damodaran's proposal to value the option to expand the business of Home Depot. Some of the errors and problems of this and other approaches are: - Assuming that the option is replicable and using Black and Scholes' formula. - The estimation of the option's volatility is arbitrary and has a decisive effect on the option's value. - As there is no riskles...

  8. Franchise ownership redirection: real options perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Nugroho, Lukito Adi

    2016-01-01

    Background: For over 40 years, the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars. This study, differing from previous ones, proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory. Method: The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method, where the franchisor's decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquis...

  9. The Real Options Attached to an Investment Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai-Cristian DINICĂ

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The real options capture the importance of the managerial team’s role in creating value through investment projects. The investments in real assets have a set of options that managers can exercise during the period of the project to increase the value of the assets or to limit the eventual losses. This options have their own value.The traditional methods for investment project evaluatioan, based on discounted cash flows, have some major disadvantages: they assume the irreversibility of a decision, do not take into account the interactions between decisions in several periods and treat the investment as pasive. The evaluation using real options undertake this disadvantage. The paper shows the main types of real options, together with their elements and captures the impact of these options on the value of the investment. The main two models used to evaluate real options, the binomial model and Black-Scholes model, are explained and used to compute the value of real options attached to an investment project.

  10. Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2007-01-01

    -adopters (UK, Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The study furthermore shows that small, profitable and financially constrained firms...... are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro. The results go beyond the immediate trade effects, which empirical studies have shown to be weak and without trade diversion as to the three non-adopters, and provide important insights about the potential long...

  11. Acquisitions and Real Options : The Greenfield Alternative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouthers, Keith D.; Dikova, Desislava

    P>Although acquisitions are a popular way to enter new markets, empirical evidence tends to indicate few benefits accrue to acquiring firms. This might be the case because firms use acquisitions when they should be employing an alternative mode of expansion. Applying real options theory to this

  12. Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

    2011-01-01

    The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

  13. Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

    works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

  14. Acquisitions Through a Behavioral and Real Options Lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C.M. Kil (Joris)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis combines four studies that contribute to our understanding of corporate acquisitions by taking a behavioral and real options perspective. Chapter 2 classifies acquisitions based on real option characteristics and shows option type (single vs. compound) and option nature

  15. Evaluating technology service options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumberg, D F

    1997-05-01

    Four service and support options are available to healthcare organizations for maintaining their growth arsenals of medical and information technology. These options include maintaining and servicing all equipment using a facility-based biomedical engineering and MIS service department; using a combination of facility-based service and subcontracted service; expanding facility-based biomedical and MIS service departments to provide service to other healthcare organizations to achieve economies of scale; and outsourcing all maintenance, repair, and technical support services. Independent service companies and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are offering healthcare organizations a wider array of service and support capabilities than ever before. However, some health systems have successfully developed their own independent service organizations to take care of their own--and other healthcare organizations'--service and support needs.

  16. Evaluating Virtual Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Allen Conover

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Com opções virtuais os ativos subjacentes são informação e as regras que governam o exercício são baseadas nas realidades do reino da informação (infosphere. As opções virtuais podem ser modeladas como opções para comprar alguma informação pagando o custo das operações da informação envolvida. As opções virtuais surgem em diversos estágios da criação do valor. O estágio inicial envolve a observação de fenômenos físicos, com acompanhamento da captação de dados. O refinamento seguinte deve organizar os dados, em bases de dados estruturadas. A informação é selecionada, a partir do armazenamento e sintetizada em um produto da informação (tal como um relatório, um artigo, ou desenho de especificações do produto a ser fabricado no mundo físico. O produto da informação é apresentado, então, ao usuário por meio de uma relação eficiente que não requeira que o usuário seja um perito do campo. As opções virtuais são similares em conceito às opções reais mas, substancialmente, diferentes em seus detalhes, porque as opções reais têm objetos físicos, enquanto os ativos subjacentes e as regras que governam o exercício são baseados nas realidades do mundo físico. Também, quando se exercita uma opção financeira mata-se, tipicamente, a opção, as opções virtuais podem incluir o exercício múltiplo. As opções virtuais podem envolver a volatilidade elevada ou saltar processos e, também, adicionar além, realçando seu valor. A aplicação da teoria de preço das opçãos às opções reais criou ferramentas de análise de valor para tomada de decisão disciplinada, e o potencial e, também, é grande para os instrumentos de apoio para análise de valor de decisão baseada em opções virtuais. Este artigo trata diversas aplicações reais e importantes análises de opções no mundo da informação, incluindo modelos de processo do jump e os modelos para avaliar opções e sintetizar alguns

  17. Retrospective insights from real options in R&D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics

  18. Real option analysis in a replicating portfolio perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heeswijk, W.J.A.; Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Huisman, Kuno; Bos, Christian

    2013-01-01

    In the last decades, a vast body of literature has arisen on real option analysis (ROA). The use of di¤erent approaches and the often implicit adoption of major assumptions may cause confusion on what ROA precisely entails, or in which situations it may be applied. We assess the �eld of real option

  19. INVESTMENT IN ANTIVIRAL DRUGS : A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, Arthur E.; Lugner, Anna K.; Feenstra, Talitha L.

    2010-01-01

    Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations

  20. Document Delivery: Evaluating the Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Suzanne M.

    1997-01-01

    Discusses options available to libraries for document delivery. Topics include users' needs; cost; copyright compliance; traditional interlibrary loan; types of suppliers; selection criteria, including customer service; new developments in interlibrary loan, including outsourcing arrangements; and the need to evaluate suppliers. (LRW)

  1. Flexibility and Project Value: Interactions and Multiple Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čulík, Miroslav

    2010-06-01

    This paper is focused on a project valuation with embedded portfolio of real options including their interactions. Valuation is based on the criterion of Net Present Value on the simulation basis. Portfolio includes selected types of European-type real options: option to expand, contract, abandon and temporarily shut down and restart a project. Due to the fact, that in reality most of the managerial flexibility takes the form of portfolio of real options, selected types of options are valued not only individually, but also in combination. The paper is structured as follows: first, diffusion models for forecasting of output prices and variable costs are derived. Second, project value is estimated on the assumption, that no real options are present. Next, project value is calculated with the presence of selected European-type options; these options and their impact on project value are valued first in isolation and consequently in different combinations. Moreover, intrinsic value evolution of given real options with respect to the time of exercising is analysed. In the end, results are presented graphically; selected statistics and risk measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the NPV's distributions are calculated and commented.

  2. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MAFTEI DANIEL

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

  3. Depleted uranium disposal options evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hertzler, T.J.; Nishimoto, D.D.; Otis, M.D.

    1994-05-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management, has chartered a study to evaluate alternative management strategies for depleted uranium (DU) currently stored throughout the DOE complex. Historically, DU has been maintained as a strategic resource because of uses for DU metal and potential uses for further enrichment or for uranium oxide as breeder reactor blanket fuel. This study has focused on evaluating the disposal options for DU if it were considered a waste. This report is in no way declaring these DU reserves a ''waste,'' but is intended to provide baseline data for comparison with other management options for use of DU. To PICS considered in this report include: Retrievable disposal; permanent disposal; health hazards; radiation toxicity and chemical toxicity

  4. Capital renewal as a real option

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reindorp, M.J.; Fu, M.C.

    2011-01-01

    We consider the timing of replacement of obsolete subsystems within an extensive, complex infrastructure. Such replacement action, known as capital renewal, must balance uncertainty about future profitability against uncertainty about future renewal costs. Treating renewal investments as real

  5. Real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black-Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R and D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: 'Baseline' corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. 'Accelerated' strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R and D and the advantages of accelerated development path. - Research highlights: → Real options analysis of fusion R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme. → ENPV of fusion RDDD programme is calculated using stochastic probabilistic simulation. → Fusion RDDD programme exhibits substantial positive real options value: Euro 245 billion. → Fuzzy compound real option valuation method provides more robust results.

  6. Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.

    2003-01-01

    Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

  7. The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwankpa, Joseph K.

    2012-01-01

    Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

  8. Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Vintila

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.

  9. Real options and volume uncertainty by field development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekern, S.; Stensland, G.

    1993-12-01

    The report concerns a study on the use of option methodology in field development projects. The report shows how the value of flexibility in the different decision processes is to be found by means of real option methodology. Particular attention is laid on the uncertainty concerning the volume of reserves and production capacity. The results from the study were based on the research project dubbed ''Use of real options in field development projects''. The project is partially connected to another project dubbed ''Decisive behaviour and alternative action under uncertainty in the petroleum sector''. Main topics cover as follow: Example with volume uncertainty; real options and volume uncertainty; gradual disclosure of uncertainty in the production; value of flexible production equipment. 33 refs., 19 figs., 17 tabs

  10. Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2015-01-01

    Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

  11. Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

    2016-01-01

    Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies with multinat......Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies...... with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

  12. How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

    Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

  13. A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

  14. New perspective of real options theory for policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sadowski, B.M.

    2007-01-01

    In deze Reflectie geeft Sadowski een alternatief, of eigenlijk een aanvulling op de KBA, vanuit de real options theory, zoals die ook in de financiële sector gebruikt wordt. Het idee is dat er in dynamische markten veel ontwikkelingen zijn: technologisch, een markt in beweging of industriële

  15. Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

  16. Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

    2017-08-01

    Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

  17. Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakić Biljana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

  18. Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

  19. Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

    2001-01-01

    Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

  20. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  1. Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

    2015-09-15

    Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. What is the (Real Option) Value of a College Degree?

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey R. Stokes

    2013-01-01

    The value of a college degree is often quantified as the difference in earnings between those with and without a degree. The research presented here operationalizes this idea in two important ways. First, since future income and tuition are uncertain, a contingent claims model is developed and the appropriate discount rate for valuing future earnings is, therefore, endogenized given an economy that does not permit arbitrage. Second, the model is sensitive to the valuation of the real option t...

  3. Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

    2015-04-01

    Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this

  4. Mouse-tracking evidence for parallel anticipatory option evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranford, Edward A; Moss, Jarrod

    2017-12-23

    In fast-paced, dynamic tasks, the ability to anticipate the future outcome of a sequence of events is crucial to quickly selecting an appropriate course of action among multiple alternative options. There are two classes of theories that describe how anticipation occurs. Serial theories assume options are generated and evaluated one at a time, in order of quality, whereas parallel theories assume simultaneous generation and evaluation. The present research examined the option evaluation process during a task designed to be analogous to prior anticipation tasks, but within the domain of narrative text comprehension. Prior research has relied on indirect, off-line measurement of the option evaluation process during anticipation tasks. Because the movement of the hand can provide a window into underlying cognitive processes, online metrics such as continuous mouse tracking provide more fine-grained measurements of cognitive processing as it occurs in real time. In this study, participants listened to three-sentence stories and predicted the protagonists' final action by moving a mouse toward one of three possible options. Each story was presented with either one (control condition) or two (distractor condition) plausible ending options. Results seem most consistent with a parallel option evaluation process because initial mouse trajectories deviated further from the best option in the distractor condition compared to the control condition. It is difficult to completely rule out all possible serial processing accounts, although the results do place constraints on the time frame in which a serial processing explanation must operate.

  5. A Real Options Approach to Nuclear Waste Disposal in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederkvist, Jonas; Joensson, Kristian

    2004-04-01

    This report is concerned with an investigation of how the real options approach can be useful for managerial decisions regarding the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden. The problem of interest is the optimal time-schedule for phase-out activities, where the optimal time-schedule is defined in purely economical terms. The approach taken is actual construction and application of three real options models, which capture different aspects of managerial decisions. The first model concerns when investments in deep disposal facilities should optimally be made. Although the model is a rough simplification of reality, the result is clear. It is economically advantageous to postpone deep disposal forever. The second model focuses on how the uncertainty of future costs relates to managerial investment decisions. Construction of this model required some creativity, as the nuclear phase-out turns out to be quite a special project. The result from the second model is that there can be a value associated with deferral of investments due to the uncertainty of future costs, but the result is less clear-cut compared to the first model. In the third model, we extend an approach suggested by Louberge, Villeneuve and Chesney. The risk of a nuclear accident is introduced through this model and we develop its application to investigate the Swedish phase-out in particular, which implies that waste continuously disposed. In the third model, focus is shifted from investment timing to implementation timing. The results from the third model are merely qualitative, as it is considered beyond the scope of this work to quantitatively determine all relevant inputs. It is concluded that the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden is not just another area of application for standard real options techniques. A main reason is that although there are a lot of uncertain issues regarding the phase-out, those uncertainties do not leave a lot of room for managerial flexibility if

  6. Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novotný Josef

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

  7. Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

  8. Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Tyrone T. [Department of International Business, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Road, Shou-Feng, Hualien 974, Taiwan (China)]. E-mail: tjlin@mail.ndhu.edu.tw; Ko, C.-C. [Department of International Trade, Jin Wen Institute of Technology, Taiwan (China); Yeh, H.-N. [Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan (China)

    2007-04-15

    This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions.

  9. A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Luong, Quoc; Tauer, Loren W.

    2004-01-01

    Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world’s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this paper examines Vietnamese coffee growers’ investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continu...

  10. Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Ko, C.-C.; Yeh, H.-N.

    2007-01-01

    This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

  11. MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

  12. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

    2006-01-01

    ...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

  13. Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishtha Manocha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

  14. Evaluation of capital investment in thermoelectric generation projects in the Brazilian electric sector using the real options theory; Avaliacao de investimento de capital em projetos de geracao termoeletrica no setor eletrico brasileiro usando teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Alessandro de Lima

    2000-04-01

    In the Brazilian Electric System about 92% of the generated electricity is of hydraulic origin. Today the system is operating practically in the limit of your capacity. Solutions of short time to make possible the expansion of the offer of electricity generation go by the installation of cycle combining thermal using natural gas as fuel. In this dissertation, it was used the real options theory to evaluate generation assets in the Brazilian electricity sector. In Brazil, central operator dispatches a flexible thermal when the electricity spot price is larger than the operation costs. The operation decision is like an European call, where underlying asset is the electricity and the strike price is the operation cost. The value of the capacity is the sum of all decisions to operate the thermal unit, in the remaining life of unit. It was used Monte Carlo Simulation and Dynamic Programming to evaluate this model. The problem is divided in two parts. In the first part, the base case is fixed and evaluated and the expected NPV and project risk are calculated in function of contract level. In the second part, many sensibilities are done in relation to base case. At the end, the value of flexibility is calculated for each contract level. (author)

  15. Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Huan Ran

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

  16. Evaluating State Options for Reducing Medicaid Churning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swartz, Katherine; Short, Pamela Farley; Graefe, Deborah R.; Uberoi, Namrata

    2015-01-01

    Medicaid churning - the constant exit and re-entry of beneficiaries as their eligibility changes - has long been a problem for both Medicaid administrators and recipients. Churning will continue under the Affordable Care Act, because despite new federal rules, Medicaid eligibility will continue to be based on current monthly income. We developed a longitudinal simulation model to evaluate four policy options for modifying or extending Medicaid eligibility to reduce churning. The simulations suggest that two options, extending Medicaid eligibility either to the end of a calendar year or for twelve months after enrollment, would be far more effective in reducing churning than the other options of a three-month extension or eligibility based on projected annual income. States should consider implementation of the option that best balances costs, including both administration and services, with improved health of Medicaid enrollees. PMID:26153313

  17. Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

    The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation

  18. The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

    2016-01-01

    In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

  19. Real options valuation and optimization of energy assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Matthew

    In this thesis we present algorithms for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities, hydro-electric power plants and thermal power generators in competitive markets. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial-integro-differential equations (PIDEs) for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of all types of facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time-dependent, mean-reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real energy assets. For natural gas storage facilities these characteristics include: working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates and cycling limitations. For thermal power plants relevant operational characteristics include variable start-up times and costs, control response time lags, minimum generating levels, nonlinear output functions, structural limitations on ramp rates, and minimum up/down time restrictions. For hydro-electric units, head effects and environmental constraints are addressed. We illustrate the models with numerical examples of a gas storage facility, a hydro-electric pump storage facility and a thermal power plant. This PIDE framework is the first in the literature to achieve second order accuracy in characterizing the operating states of hydro-electric and hydro-thermal power plants. The continuous state space representation derived in this thesis can therefore achieve far greater realism in terms of operating state specification than any other method in the literature to date. This thesis is also the first and only to allow for any continuous time jump diffusion processes in order to account for price spikes.

  20. Process to identify and evaluate restoration options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, J.; Senner, S.; Weiner, A.; Rabinowitch, S.; Brodersen, M.; Rice, K.; Klinge, K.; MacMullin, S.; Yender, R.; Thompson, R.

    1993-01-01

    The restoration planning process has yielded a number of possible alternatives for restoring resources and services injured by the Exxon Valdez oil spill. They were developed by resource managers, scientists, and the public, taking into consideration the results of damage assessment and restoration studies and information from the scientific literature. The alternatives thus far identified include no action natural recovery, management of human uses, manipulation of resources, habitat protection and acquisition, acquisition of equivalent resources, and combinations of the above. Each alternative consists of a different mix of resource- or service-specific restoration options. To decide whether it was appropriate to spend restoration funds on a particular resource or service, first criteria had to be developed that evaluated available evidence for consequential injury and the adequacy and rate of natural recovery. Then, recognizing the range of effective restoration options, a second set of criteria was applied to determine which restoration options were the most beneficial. These criteria included technical feasibility, potential to improve the rate or degree of recovery, the relationship of expected costs to benefits, cost effectiveness, and the potential to restore the ecosystem as a whole. The restoration options considered to be most beneficial will be grouped together in several or more of the above alternatives and presented in a draft restoration plan. They will be further evaluated in a companion draft environmental impact statement

  1. Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Yung Medeiros

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

  2. 48 CFR 552.217-70 - Evaluation of Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 552... Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 517.208(a), insert the following provision: Evaluation of Options... period price. When option year pricing is based on a formula (e.g., changes in the Producer Price Index...

  3. Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system. - Highlights: • Regulatory frameworks for efficient and timely transmission expansions are designed. • Irreversibility and uncertainty of transmission investment is properly accounted for. • Response of network investors to regulatory incentives is quantitatively established

  4. The research for flexible product family manufacturing based on real options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maozhu Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The goal of this paper is to find the best production strategy for product mix, which means the largest value of the options. And finally, give a case and find the solution of the optimal production strategy for product mix. Design/methodology/approach: This article, based on the production with characteristics of a call option and 0-1 integer programming model, build new-products mix strategy, and through case demonstrate that traditional method underestimates the value of the products mix. Finding: According to market being volatility and uncertainty and the production can being delayed, firms can flexibly arrange the best time for products to manufacture. Use real options theory to analyze product decision and the best production timing decision. Find the total options value is higher than the traditional methods. Research limitations/implications: We are not applied to real option pricing theory in modular flexible production system. We just applied real option pricing theory to the product platform. The basic model needs to improve. While the thinking of this paper provides some research ideas for flexible production systems based on real option in further research. Practical Implications: The introduction of the real option make the company can achieve dynamic planning and flexible management for production of products mix and get the better benefit. Originality/value: The central contribution of this paper is to introduce the option mechanism in the production timing for the product mix.

  5. A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

    2013-07-01

    A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15

  6. 48 CFR 52.217-5 - Evaluation of Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Evaluation of Options. 52....217-5 Evaluation of Options. As prescribed in 17.208(c), insert a provision substantially the same as the following: Evaluation of Options (JUL 1990) Except when it is determined in accordance with FAR 17...

  7. A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

  8. Multi-criteria Evaluation of Nuclear Option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feretic, D.; Tomsic, Z.; Jaksic, D.

    2002-01-01

    When evaluating power system expansion scenarios there is a need to take into consideration a range of measurable and non-measurable impacts. Measurable impacts are fixed and variable production costs and, recently, external costs. Non-measurable impacts include public attitude to certain energy technology and investor's risk in achieving the expected profit (regulatory and political risk). Public attitude has a large and sometimes essential impact on decision-making. It is mostly associated with the expected environmental impact of a potential power plant and can be divided in rational and non-rational part. Rational part, which is in proportion with scientifically approved environmental impact of energy options (inversely proportional to external costs) is relatively small, while the other, non-rational category which is not proportional with the actual environmental impact (especially in the case of nuclear power), is much larger. Investor's risk in achieving the expected profit is mostly associated with possible changes of domestic or foreign regulations or policy that can influence power plant operation and long-term fuel availability and price. Two factors that affect decision-making should be distinguished. The first is the total impact of certain non-measurable factor and the other is the impact of certain technology on that non-measurable factor like public impact, for example. The objective of multi-criteria evaluation, after weighting and quantification of all impacts is to determine the most acceptable power system expansion option. In the article a simplified quantification will be made of measurable (investment costs, annual maintenance costs, fuel price, indirect costs of power plants) and non-measurable (public attitude, investor's risk) elements that affect future investment decision. For that purpose possible relative values of non-measurable impacts of different options will be determined (their weights and impact on relative increase of annual

  9. A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options model for wind projects considering investment timing and sizing. • Introducing a capacity constraint in the optimisation. • Addressing several uncertainty factors while still providing analytical solution. • Comparative policy analysis of investment incentives from different support schemes. • Improved quantification of trade-off between fast deployment and large projects. - Abstract: A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment of smaller projects and slower deployment of larger projects is neglected using traditional net present value approaches. In the analysis of such trade-off, previous real options studies did not consider a capacity constraint, which is here shown to decrease the significance of the effect. The impact on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes.

  10. Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

  11. 48 CFR 1552.217-70 - Evaluation of contract options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... options. 1552.217-70 Section 1552.217-70 Federal Acquisition Regulations System ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... 1552.217-70 Evaluation of contract options. As prescribed in 1517.208(a), insert the following solicitation provision in Requests for Proposals when the solicitation contains options. Evaluation of Contract...

  12. The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga Investment Projects on Iran's natural gas reserves. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... methodology – discounted cash flow analysis – in valuation of Giga investments.

  13. DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN NEW ZEALAND: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran, Van

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Real Options (RO has been a universally accepted concept in a number of major industries. However, its use in the construction supply chain management (CSCM sector has been limited. Some rare supply chain management RO studies have shown a number of limitations. First, there is a lack of a rigorous theoretical RO framework pertaining specifically to CSCM. All such supply chain management RO studies are based off RO theories or models developed for other sectors (engineering, infrastructure, natural resources. And second, attempts to extend real option to wider uses in CSCM seem premature at the present. This paper reviews all recent literature pertaining to real options and real options applied specifically to the construction supply chain management area. The study proposes a research programme pertaining to CSCM in New Zealand in order to enhance the current understanding of RO in this area and in the process develop a comprehensive theory for the RO application in New Zealand CSCM.

  14. Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

  15. Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis M. Abadie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

  16. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  17. 48 CFR 52.217-3 - Evaluation Exclusive of Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Options. 52.217-3 Section 52.217-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION....217-3 Evaluation Exclusive of Options. As prescribed in 17.208(a), insert a provision substantially the same as the following in solicitations when the solicitation includes an option clause and does...

  18. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  19. STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

    2003-01-01

    Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

  20. Phytoremediation options for radioactively contaminated sites evaluated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We present an overview of the most important site and environmental radioactive contamination problems encountered. ► The potential role of different phytomanagement options is discussed and illustrated with examples. ► The phytomanagement options considered are: soil phytoextraction, rhizofiltration, wetlands and alternative land use. - Abstract: The application of nuclear energy and the use of radionuclides for industrial, medical and research purposes have caused significant contamination of certain sites and their environment, which could result in health problems for several centuries if nothing is undertaken to remedy these situations. Except for the immediate environment of the facility, where decontamination activities may be feasible and affordable, the contamination often extents over a vast area and decontamination would be costly and could result in vast amounts of waste. Therefore, more realistic yet efficient remediation options should be searched for of which phytomanagement is among the potential options. A number of phytomanagement approaches will be discussed

  1. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  2. Growing short rotation coppice on agricultural land in Germany: A Real Options Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musshoff, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    In many cases decision-makers apparently do not adapt as fast as expected to changing economic conditions. This is also the case for the conversion of farm land to short rotation coppice. From an economic point of view, short rotation coppice has become more interesting in the last few years. Nevertheless, farm land still is rarely used to grow this quite unknown crop. Several explanatory approaches (e.g., traditionalistic behavior and risk aversion) are currently discussed in order to explain this behavior. A relatively new explanatory approach is the Real Options Approach. The Real Options Approach uses a comprehensive dynamic-stochastic model that combines the uncertainty of investment returns, the sunk costs, and the temporal flexibility of the investment implementation. The quintessence of the Real Options Approach is that—compared to the Classical Investment Theory—the investment triggers will be shifted upwards if investments involve intertemporal opportunity costs. This paper develops a real options model which allows the determination of triggers on the basis of realistic assumptions. We examined when farmers, who only dispose of sandy soils with little water-storing capacity, should convert set-aside land to short rotation coppice. The results show that farmers should not convert until the present value of the investment returns exceeds the investment costs considerably. Thus, they confirm the empirically observed reluctance in conversion. Furthermore, it turned out that the magnitude of the difference between the Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach depends heavily on the type of stochastic process that underlies the investment returns. -- Highlights: ► Frequently observed reluctance of farmers to convert to short rotation coppice. ► Risk neutral farmers should convert if the investment multiple exceeds 1.57. ► The Real Options Approach is an explanatory approach for this observation. ► Results depend very much on the

  3. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A.

    2008-01-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  4. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  5. Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

  6. The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon G. Sollars

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available he possibility of a first-mover advantage arises in a variety of strategic choices, including product introductions, business start-ups, and mergers and acquisitions. The strategic management literature reflects ambiguity regarding the likelihood that a first mover can or will capture additional value. This paper uses a real options approach to address the optimal timing of strategic moves. Previous studies have modeled real options using either a perpetual or a European financial option. With these models, a strategic choice could only be made either without respect to a time frame (perpetual or at a fixed point in time (European option. Neither case is realistic. Companies typically have strategic options with only a limited time frame due to market factors, but companies may choose to act at any time within that constraint. To reflect this reality, we adapt a method for valuing an American financial option on a dividend paying stock to the real options context. The method presented in this paper proposes a solution for the optimum value for a project that should trigger a strategic choice, and highlights the value lost by not acting optimally. We use simulation results to show that the time frame available to make a strategic choice has an important effect on both the project value for when action should be taken, as well as on the value of waiting to invest at the optimal time. The results presented in this paper help to clarify the ambiguity that is found in the strategic management literature regarding the possibility of obtaining a first-mover advantage. Indeed, a first mover that acts sub-optimally could incur losses or at least not gain any advantage. A first mover that waits to invest at the right time based on the superior information supplied by models based on real options could be better positioned to obtain the benefits that might come from the first move.

  7. Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

    2018-04-01

    Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

  8. Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

    2014-01-01

    The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

  9. When Do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? : A Real Option Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cassimon, D.; Engelen, P.J.; Liedekerke, L.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the process for firms to decide whether or not to invest in corporate social responsibility is treated from a real option perspective. We extend the Husted (2005) framework with an important extra parameter that allows us to understand the timing of CSR investment and explain why some

  10. Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Vrande, van de V.J.A.; Chesbrough, H.

    2008-01-01

    Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new

  11. Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist and

  12. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  13. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

    2014-03-15

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  14. Evaluation of the confinement option for LMRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Himes, D.A.; Stepnewski, D.D.; Franz, G.R.

    1985-12-01

    The coolant in liquid metal cooled reactors operates at low pressures and therefore contains relatively little stored energy compared to LWR systems. This presents the possibility of using a more conventional building for containment coupled with a confinement system which vents the internal volume of the building through a filter/scrubber. The confinement system would be designed to keep the internal pressure in the containment near atmospheric thereby minimizing unfiltered leakage. The principal benefits of such an arrangement would be lower capital cost and less stringent leaktightness requirements permitting simpler and less disruptive testing. In conclusion, the confinement system assumed here would reduce consequences to the public of an LMR HCDA to acceptable levels. However control room doses are unacceptable due to the noble gas concentration inside the control room. A confinement system is therefore a viable design option for LMR's provided means are included for keeping noble gases out of the control room. Such means are readily available including, for example, selectable remote air intakes, an exhaust stack, or a noble gas filter. Probably the most satisfactory alternative would be a large cryogenic filter on the confinement system exhaust

  15. Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

  16. Comparative evaluation of radioactive waste management options. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appel, D.; Kreusch, J.; Neumann, W.

    2001-05-01

    A comprehensive presentation of the various radioactive waste options under debate has not been made so far, let alone a comparative evaluation of the options with respect to their substantiated or assumed advantages or drawbacks. However, any appropriate discussion about the pros and cons of the specific options for final decision making has to be based on a comprehensive knowledge base drawn from profound comparative evaluation of essential options. Therefore, the study reported in this publication was to serve three major purposes: Presentation of the conditions and waste management policies and approaches in selected countries, in order to compile information about the various policy goals and the full scope of argumentation, as well as the range of individual arguments used for or against specific options. - Derivation of a methodology for evaluation, including development of criteria for a comparative and qualitative evaluation of options. - Identification of possible implications for a waste management strategy for Germany, derived from the results of the comparative evaluation and the examination of the reasonings and argumentation used in the various countries. (orig./CB) [de

  17. A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine developme...

  18. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-09-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  19. Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Bao-Jun; Zhou, Hui-Ling; Chen, Hao; Wang, Kai; Cao, Hong

    2017-01-01

    China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. - Highlights: • Volatility is combined with fluctuations in oil price, exchange rate and political situation. • Hurdle price is adopted as a critical price to measure investment opportunity. • Scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contribute to earlier investment timing.

  20. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres R. Jácome

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H and exit (L prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  1. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-01-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  2. The application of option pricing theory to the evaluation of mining investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Neng-fu(张能福); CAI Si-jing(蔡嗣经); LIU Chao-ma(刘朝马); TANG Rui(唐瑞)

    2003-01-01

    A rational evaluation on an investment project forms the basis of a right investment decision-making. The discounted cash flow (DCF for short) method is usually used as a traditional evaluation method for a project investment. However, as the mining investment is influenced by many uncertainties, DCF method cannot take into account these uncertainties and often underestimates the value of an investment project. Based on the option pricing theory of the modern financial assets, the characteristics of a real project investment are discussed, and the management option of mine managers and its pricing method are described.

  3. A real-life example of choosing an inherently safer process option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Study, Karen

    2007-01-01

    While choosing an inherently safer alternative may seem straightforward, sometimes what seems to be the most obvious alternative may not provide the best risk reduction. The process designer must maintain a broad perspective to be able to recognize all potential hazards when evaluating design options. All aspects of operation such as start-up, shut-down, utility failure, as well as normal operation should be considered. Choosing the inherently safer option is best accomplished early in the option selection phase of a project; however, recycle back to the option selection phase may be needed if an option is not thoroughly evaluated early in the process. In this paper, a project to supply ammonia to a catalytic reactor will be reviewed. During the course of the project, an 'inherently safer' alternative was selected and later discarded due to issues uncovered during the detail design phase. The final option chosen will be compared to (1) the original design and (2) the initial 'inherently safer' alternative. The final option was inherently safer than both the original design and the initial 'inherently safer' alternative even though the design team initially believed that it would not be

  4. In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2011-01-01

    This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

  5. A real option analysis of investments in hydropower-The case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjaerland, Frode

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the Norwegian context. According to NVE (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the regulator), there is a potential of 39 TWh not yet developed (generation in a normal year is approximately 120 TWh). By using the conceptual real option framework of Dixit and Pindyck [1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to NOK 11 million/GWh (EUR 1.4 million/GWh). Furthermore, the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to NOK 0.32/kWh (EUR 0.04/kWh). The analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in Norwegian hydropower

  6. Parking taxes : evaluating options and impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litman, T.A.

    2006-01-01

    In addition to encouraging the use of alternative modes of transport, parking taxes can help to reduce congestion, air pollution, and urban sprawl. Various types of parking taxes were evaluated in this paper, as well as their impacts on parking supply, prices and travel patterns. Examples of various parking tax programs in major cities in Canada, Europe, the United States and Australia were presented. Parking tax programs were divided into 2 main categories: (1) per-space parking levies which distribute cost burdens and encourage property owners to manage parking supply more efficiently and (2) commercial parking taxes on parking rental transactions which discourage the pricing of parking and concentrate impacts in limited areas. Worksite parking levies were discussed, as well stormwater fees and employee parking as a taxable benefit. Typical parking facility financial costs were reviewed and best practices for structuring and implementing parking taxes to increase public acceptability were outlined. It was suggested that the tax base should be broad and well-defined. Local governments should increase parking prices to market rates before imposing special parking taxes, and taxes and fees should be structured to avoid undesirable land use. Parking tax reforms should be part of an overall parking and mobility management program. Stakeholders should be consulted to insure that regulations, administrative procedures and enforcement policies are efficient and fair. The establishment of an evaluation program to determine tax impacts on parking supply and pricing, economic activity, traffic and spillover problems was also recommended. 42 refs., 4 tabs., 1 fig

  7. When to Wait for More Evidence? Real Options Analysis in Proton Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Keith R.; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Peters, Hans J.M.; Beutner, Eric; Lambin, Philippe; Joore, Manuela A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. Trends suggest that cancer spending growth will accelerate. One method for controlling costs is to examine whether the benefits of new technologies are worth the extra costs. However, especially new and emerging technologies are often more costly, while limited clinical evidence of superiority is available. In that situation it is often unclear whether to adopt the new technology now, with the risk of investing in a suboptimal therapy, or to wait for more evidence, with the risk of withholding patients their optimal treatment. This trade-off is especially difficult when it is costly to reverse the decision to adopt a technology, as is the case for proton therapy. Real options analysis, a technique originating from financial economics, assists in making this trade-off. Methods. We examined whether to adopt proton therapy, as compared to stereotactic body radiotherapy, in the treatment of inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. Three options are available: adopt without further research; adopt and undertake a trial; or delay adoption and undertake a trial. The decision depends on the expected net gain of each option, calculated by subtracting its total costs from its expected benefits. Results. In The Netherlands, adopt and trial was found to be the preferred option, with an optimal sample size of 200 patients. Increase of treatment costs abroad and costs of reversal altered the preferred option. Conclusion. We have shown that real options analysis provides a transparent method of weighing the costs and benefits of adopting and/or further researching new and expensive technologies. PMID:22147003

  8. A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria

    OpenAIRE

    Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numer...

  9. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

  10. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

  11. THE THEORY OF REAL OPTIONS in investment ANALYSIS of agroforestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maísa Santos Joaquim

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study we compared the values generated by traditional economic analysis (Net Present Value - NPV with Real Options Method. The objective was to apply the method proposed by Copeland & Antikarov for rainbow options, due to three stochastic variables selected with decision of abandonment if the project value with flexibility was less than the value of the underlying stock. It enabled the flexibility value generation in order to entrepreneurs to have more confidence in their decision when they are investing in a project with Agroforestry System, with different scenarios visualization in a single analysis. The results evidenced that the economic viability analysis, using Real Options, provided the best view of the possible scenarios, within a range generated by the prices volatility. The Net Present Value adopted as the underlying stock value was R$ 5,684.32, using the discount rate (WACC of 9.95% and risk-free interest rate of 7.5%. To determine the volatility were calculated: the logarithmic return standard deviation (27.06, the average (0.0883, upward movements values (u (1.3107 with 61.34% of probability and downward movements values (d(0.7628 with 38.66%  of probability. The option value in case of abandonment was R$ 2,059.01/ha positive. The results showed that the NPV overestimated the project return and that it would be viable to abandon it.

  12. Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arasteh, Abdollah

    2016-09-01

    Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

  13. Cost-effective design of ringwall storage hybrid power plants: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weibel, Sebastian; Madlener, Reinhard

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic viability, optimal size, and siting of a hybrid ringwall hydro power plant. • Real options analysis for optimal investment timing and stochastic storage volumes. • Stochastic PV and solar power production affects optimal size of the storage device. • Monte Carlo simulation is used for wind/solar power, el. price, and investment cost. • Numerical computations for two different hybrid ringwall storage plant scenarios. - Abstract: We study the economic viability and optimal sizing and siting of a hybrid plant that combines a ringwall hydro storage system with wind and solar power plants (ringwall storage hybrid power plant, RSHPP). A real options model is introduced to analyze the economics of an onshore RSHPP, and in particular of the varying storage volume in light of the stochastic character of wind and solar power, as well as the optimal investment timing under uncertainty. In fact, many uncertainties arise in such a project. Energy production is determined by the stochastic character of wind and solar power, and affects the optimal size of the storage device. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the following sources of uncertainty: (i) wind intensity and solar irradiation; (ii) future electricity price; and (iii) investment costs. The results yield the optimal size of the storage device; the energy market on which the operator should sell the electricity generated; numerical examples for two different RSHPP scenarios; and a real options model for analyzing the opportunity to defer the project investment and thus to exploit the value of waiting

  14. Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, G.; Owens, B.

    2003-02-01

    One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

  15. A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2013-01-01

    The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

  16. Identification and evaluation of alternative radioactive waste categorisation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maul, P.R.; Smith, G.M.; Stenhouse, M.J.; Watkins, B.M.

    1996-09-01

    The purpose of the research described in this report was to consider the options for future UK radioactive waste categorisation, to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each option and, as a result, to identify any which might be viable practical alternatives to the current arrangements. The review process included meetings with large and small waste producers, a wider consultation exercise using a questionnaire, a presentation to RWMAC, and discussion with representatives of the UK regulators. These consultations provided the basis for the formulation and evaluation of a number of alternative waste categorisation schemes. (UK)

  17. ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domercant, Jean Charles

    The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

  18. Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

    2017-06-01

    Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

  19. EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián Otero G

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Una respuesta a las falencias de los métodos tradicionales de evaluación de proyectos de inversión corresponde a la metodología de "Opciones Reales" que proviene del análisis de opciones sobre instrumentos financieros desarrollado en la década de los 70. Esta técnica, aplicada inicialmente a activos no financieros o reales, ha sido aplicada con singular éxito en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión y se presenta como una alternativa a los métodos de evaluación tradicionales, pues incluye tanto los aspectos estratégicos como de la teoría financiera. La variación fundamental que experimenta la evaluación de proyectos de inversión mediante opciones reales con respecto a la realizada mediante los métodos tradicionales es la incorporación de la incertidumbre y la flexibilidad como elementos que agregan valor al proyecto. En el presente este trabajo se realiza un recorrido del estado del arte en lo que respecta a la teoría de opciones reales para la evaluación de proyectos de inversión mediante diferencias finitas. Se describe la importancia de los componentes económicos y estratégicos a la hora de evaluar proyectos de inversión ante escenarios de incertidumbre, analizando las características de esta metodología, destacando sus virtudes y defectos e identificándose su aplicabilidad en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión. Finalmente se realiza una implementación del método de diferencias finitas implícitas (DFI para la evaluación de un caso real que cuenta con las opciones de esperar, abandonar, contraer, expandir y cambiar a mejor uso alternativo, evaluándose para todas las opciones y combinaciones de opciones posibles. Los resultados fueron comparados con la metodología tradicional (VAN y el árbol binomial con transformada logarítmica (ABTL. Ambas metodologías (DFI y ABTL entregan valores equivalentes, siendo ambos superiores a los obtenidos mediante la metodología tradicional (VAN, diferencia que

  20. Evaluation of dairy effluent management options using multiple criteria analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajkowicz, Stefan A; Wheeler, Sarah A

    2008-04-01

    This article describes how options for managing dairy effluent on the Lower Murray River in South Australia were evaluated using multiple criteria analysis (MCA). Multiple criteria analysis is a framework for combining multiple environmental, social, and economic objectives in policy decisions. At the time of the study, dairy irrigation in the region was based on flood irrigation which involved returning effluent to the river. The returned water contained nutrients, salts, and microbial contaminants leading to environmental, human health, and tourism impacts. In this study MCA was used to evaluate 11 options against 6 criteria for managing dairy effluent problems. Of the 11 options, the MCA model selected partial rehabilitation of dairy paddocks with the conversion of remaining land to other agriculture. Soon after, the South Australian Government adopted this course of action and is now providing incentives for dairy farmers in the region to upgrade irrigation infrastructure and/or enter alternative industries.

  1. The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

  2. A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-06-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  4. The value of product flexibility in nuclear hydrogen technologies: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

    2009-01-01

    Previous economic studies of nuclear hydrogen technologies focused on levelized costs without accounting for risks and uncertainties faced by potential investors. To address some of these risks and uncertainties, we used real options theory to assess the profitability of three nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to represent the uncertainty in hydrogen and electricity prices. The model computes both the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from the production plant. It also quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production. Under these assumptions, we conclude that investors will find significant value in the capability to switch plant output between electricity and hydrogen. (author)

  5. 76 FR 13404 - Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-11

    ... Option to Collaborator AGENCY: National Institutes of Health, HHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The National... Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program's Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator. [[Page 13405... Evaluation Program (CTEP)'s Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator. The proposed revision represents a...

  6. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture: evaluation of options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolan, A.H.; Smit, B.; Skinner, M.W.; Bradshaw, B.; Bryant, C.R.

    2001-01-01

    Adaptation was defined as the responses by stakeholders to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential, or to realize opportunities associated with climate change. Planned policy initiatives representing change in the agricultural system were discussed in this report. An evaluation of adaptation options needed to be carried out before one could determine which adaptations should be promoted or implemented. The overall merit, suitability, utility or appropriateness of potential adaptation strategies or measures were examined. One interesting methodology was the Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE), which is designed to assess alternatives using more than one criterion. The criteria selected for this evaluation were: effectiveness, economic efficiency, flexibility, institutional compatibility, farmer implementation, and independent benefits. A selection of three adaptation options was made to better illustrate the utility of the evaluation framework., as follows: crop diversification, adoption of irrigation, and increase use of crop insurance. 122 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs

  7. Multi-criteria evaluation for CHP system options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilavachi, P.A.; Roumpeas, C.P.; Minett, S.; Afgan, N.H.

    2006-01-01

    Several Combined Heat and Power (CHP) system options have been considered for evaluation with respect to the end-user requirements. These included Internal Combustion Engines (Otto and Diesel), Gas Turbines, Steam Turbines and Combined Cycles covering a wide range of electrical output. Data have been obtained from literature and the CHP systems have been evaluated using different criteria such as overall efficiency, investment cost, fuel cost, electricity cost, heat cost, CO 2 production and footprint. A multi-criteria method is used with an agglomeration function based on the statistical evaluation of weight factors. The technical, economic and social aspects of each system have been evaluated in an integrated manner and the results have been compared by means of the Sustainability Index. Based on the above criteria and depending on the user requirements, the best CHP system options have been established

  8. Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, J.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we extend the real option theory to consider the situation of a large producer and we employ the model to electricity markets. This is important because many producers in these markets affect the market supply and, therefore, also the electricity price. This production price effect influences not only on the assets that the energy company owns but also on its investment opportunities. We show that this production's price effect has to be considered in the investment analysis if the company is not able to hedge the price effect in the financial markets and if there is no competition on the investment opportunity. (author)

  9. DISPOSITION PATHS FOR ROCKY FLATS GLOVEBOXES: EVALUATING OPTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobdell, D.; Geimer, R.; Larsen, P.; Loveland, K.

    2003-01-01

    The Kaiser-Hill Company, LLC has the responsibility for closure activities at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS). One of the challenges faced for closure is the disposition of radiologically contaminated gloveboxes. Evaluation of the disposition options for gloveboxes included a detailed analysis of available treatment capabilities, disposal facilities, and lifecycle costs. The Kaiser-Hill Company, LLC followed several processes in determining how the gloveboxes would be managed for disposition. Currently, multiple disposition paths have been chosen to accommodate the needs of the varying styles and conditions of the gloveboxes, meet the needs of the decommissioning team, and to best manage lifecycle costs. Several challenges associated with developing a disposition path that addresses both the radiological and RCRA concerns as well as offering the most cost-effective solution were encountered. These challenges included meeting the radiological waste acceptance criteria of available disposal facilities, making a RCRA determination, evaluating treatment options and costs, addressing void requirements associated with disposal, and identifying packaging and transportation options. The varying disposal facility requirements affected disposition choices. Facility conditions that impacted decisions included radiological and chemical waste acceptance criteria, physical requirements, and measurement for payment options. The facility requirements also impacted onsite activities including management strategies, decontamination activities, and life-cycle cost

  10. Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2007-01-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD 3 ) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD 3 programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD 3 effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD 3 . In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD 3 is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD 3 programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD 3

  11. Evaluation of design feature No.20 -- Ground support options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, F.

    2000-01-01

    Ground support options are primarily evaluated for emplacement drifts while ground support systems for non-emplacement openings such as access mains and ventilation drifts are not evaluated against LADS evaluation criteria in this report. Considerations include functional requirements for ground support, the use of a steel-lined system, and the feasibility of using an unlined ground support system principally with grouted rock bolts for permanent ground support. The feature evaluation also emphasizes the postclosure effects of ground support materials on waste isolation and the preclosure aspects such as durability, maintainability, constructibility, safety, engineering acceptability, and cost. This evaluation is to: (A) Review the existing analyses, reports, and studies regarding this design feature, and compile relevant information on performance characteristics. (B) Develop an appropriate evaluation approach for evaluating ground support options against evaluation criteria provided by the LADS team. (C) Evaluate ground support options not only for their preclosure performance in terms of drift stability, material durability, maintenance, constructibility, and cost, but also for their postclosure performance in terms of chemical effects of ground support materials (i.e., concrete, steel) on waste isolation and radionuclide transport. Specifically, the scope for ground support options evaluation include: (1) all steel-lined drifts (no cementitious materials), (2) unlined drifts with minimum cementitious materials (e.g., grout for rockbolts), and (3) concrete-lined drifts, with the focus on the postclosure acceptability evaluation. In addition, unlined drifts with zero cementitious materials (e.g., use of frictional bolts such as split sets, Swellex bolts) are briefly discussed. (D) Identify candidate ground support systems that have the potential to enhance the repository performance based on the feature evaluation. and (E) Provide conclusions and recommendations

  12. Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hach, Daniel; Spinler, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the effect of capacity payments on investments in gas-fired power plants in the presence of different degrees of renewable energy technology (RET) penetration. Low variable cost renewables increasingly make investments in gas-fired generation unprofitable. At the same time, growing feed-in from intermittent RETs amplifies fluctuations in power generation, thus entailing the need for flexible buffer capacity—currently mostly gas-fired power plants. A real options approach is applied to evaluate investment decisions and timing of a single investor in gas-fired power generation. We investigate the necessity and effectiveness of capacity payments. Our model incorporates multiple uncertainties and assesses the effect of capacity payments under different degrees of RET penetration. In a numerical study, we implement stochastic processes for peak-load electricity prices and natural gas prices. We find that capacity payments are an effective measure to promote new gas-fired generation projects. Especially in times of high renewable feed-in, capacity payments are required to incentivize peak-load investments. - Highlights: • We assess capacity payments under the specific focus of the influence of different degrees of renewable feed-in. • We use a real options approach to analyze investment decision and timing. • Our model reflects stochastic gas prices and stochastic electricity prices. • The case study shows the value of capacity payments to investors especially under high renewable feed-in.

  13. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

    2015-01-01

    In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

  14. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

    Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

  15. Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, Shio-Ling

    2011-01-01

    This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO 2 emission reduction, or general investment projects. - Research highlights: → Develops an approach which combines the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. → Applies to general energy-saving project or other investment projects. → Can more authentically response to the project value with strategic entry and exit. → Provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria via modified Tobin's q model. → Reduces the model complexity and increases the flexibility in practice application.

  16. Hydrologic information needs for evaluating waste disposal options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huff, D.D.

    1983-01-01

    Before waste disposal options can be assessed, an objective or set of criteria for evaluation must be established. For hydrologists, the objective is to ensure that ground water and surface water do not become contaminated beyond acceptable limits as a result of waste disposal operations. The focus here is on the information required to quantify hydrologic transport of potential contaminants from the disposal site. It is important to recognize that the composition of the waste, its physical and chemical form, and the intended disposal methods (e.g., surface spreading, incineration, shallow land burial, or interment in a deep geologic repository) must either be specified a priori or set forth as specific options for evaluation, because these factors influence the nature of the hydrologic data needs. The hydrologic information needs of major importance are given together with specific measurable variables to be determined.

  17. Flexibility in using Diesel or biodiesel: an approach via real options; Flexibilidade na utilizacao de Diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem via opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, Edson Daniel Lopes [Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: edson@fgvmail.br; Ferreira, Leonardo Leandro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: leonardo.ferreira@petrobras.com.br

    2008-09-15

    This work will approach the bio diesel development as renewable source fuel in the Brazilian energetic matrix. Essentially, the utilization flexibility will be considered between the traditional petroleum origin Diesel and the vegetable origin Biodiesel. So, our target is the evaluation of the flexibility existent between those two fuels. A consideration will be made via real options, where the fuel choice for supplying is modelled as a an european options sequence. Those switch input real options attributes a value to the project and minimizes the risks associated to the energy offer shortage which is another recurrent problem inside our reality. At least, some comments will be made on the potential gain on the aggregate value for the Brazil, as a consequence of Diesel dependent road transportation.

  18. 75 FR 17412 - Cancer Therapy Evaluation Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-06

    ... Program Intellectual Property Option to Collaborator AGENCY: National Cancer Institute (NCI), National... Evaluation Program (CTEP) INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY OPTION. The proposed policy, if finalized, would establish... recommended Intellectual Property Option and Institution Notification if they wish to be considered for...

  19. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

    2008-07-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  20. Real-use evaluation of effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Jesper; Hertzum, Morten

    2012-01-01

    quantitative and qualitative methods to address various levels of 'use' from overall politics to actual practice. The project concerns the introduction and use of an electronic whiteboard system to support clinical overview and logistics at emergency departments (EDs). The nurses succeed in getting 'warmer......Embracing real use in an iterative approach calls for systematic formative evaluation. Effects-driven IT Development has been suggested as a way of supporting a Participatory Design (PD) process involving implementations that expose mature prototypes to real work practices. This is followed...

  1. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casper Agaton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

  2. Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Meade, Nigel; Fleten, Stein-Erik

    2012-01-01

    -in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher......This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable...... energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed...

  3. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  4. Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, M.M.; Zhou, D.Q.; Zhou, P.; Liu, G.Q.

    2016-01-01

    The feed-in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy. China also adopts feed-in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation. This study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs in 30 provinces of China. The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. A method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and Least-Squares Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model. The results demonstrate that the feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh. On this basis, we find that the levels of sub-regional feed-in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible. We have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes, as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission. It has been suggested that the Chinese government takes diverse measures, including increasing research and development investment, establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity-transmission infrastructure, to reduce the required feed-in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. - Highlights: • We estimate the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs for 30 provinces in China by using real options method. • The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. • The feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh.

  5. Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

    2014-03-01

    This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

  6. Economic assumptions for evaluating reactor-related options for managing plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rothwell, G.

    1996-01-01

    This paper discusses the economic assumptions in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences' report, Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium: Reactor-Related Options (1995). It reviews the Net Present Value approach for discounting and comparing the costs and benefits of reactor-related options. It argues that because risks associated with the returns to plutonium management are unlikely to be constant over time, it is preferable to use a real risk-free rate to discount cash flows and explicitly describe the probability distributions for costs and benefits, allowing decision makers to determine the risk premium of each option. As a baseline for comparison, it assumes that one economic benefit of changing the current plutonium management system is a reduction in on-going Surveillance and Maintenance (S and M) costs. This reduction in the present value of S and M costs can be compared with the discounted costs of each option. These costs include direct construction costs, indirect costs, operating costs minus revenues, and decontamination and decommissioning expenses. The paper also discusses how to conduct an uncertainty analysis. It finishes by summarizing conclusions and recommendations and discusses how these recommendations might apply to the evaluation of Russian plutonium management options. (author)

  7. Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    the sale of assets for salvage value. However, for defense R&D projects, since there is no secondhand market for the projects, this option is...Peli, 2001; Panayi & Trigeorgis, 1998; Perlitz et al., 1999). Moreover, there are also very comprehensive books on the theory and practice of

  8. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CO2 STORAGE AND SINK ENHANCEMENT OPTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bert Bock; Richard Rhudy; Howard Herzog; Michael Klett; John Davison; Danial G. De La Torre Ugarte; Dale Simbeck

    2003-02-01

    This project developed life-cycle costs for the major technologies and practices under development for CO{sub 2} storage and sink enhancement. The technologies evaluated included options for storing captured CO{sub 2} in active oil reservoirs, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep aquifers, coal beds, and oceans, as well as the enhancement of carbon sequestration in forests and croplands. The capture costs for a nominal 500 MW{sub e} integrated gasification combined cycle plant from an earlier study were combined with the storage costs from this study to allow comparison among capture and storage approaches as well as sink enhancements.

  9. Antenatal Hydronephrosis: Differential Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Treatment Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herndon, C.D. Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The diagnosis, evaluation and management of antenatal hydronephrosis has undergone a two stage paradigm shift since the advent of prenatal ultrasonography in the early 1980s. Initially the identification of a large number of asymptomatic infants appeared to afford the surgeon the opportunity for preemptive intervention. However, it has now become apparent that antenatal hydronephrosis (AH) is far more difficult to interpret thanoriginally perceived. The initial enthusiasm for surgery has now been replaced by a much more conservative approach to ureteropelvic junction(UPJ) obstruction, multi-cystic dysplastic kidney(MCDK), vesicoureteral reflux and the non-refluxing megaureter. This review will highlight the postnatal evaluation of AH and include an overview of the Society for Fetal Urology grading system for hydronephrosis. The differential diagnosis and treatment options for UPJ obstruction, vesicoureteral reflux, MCDK, duplication anomalies, megaureter, and posterior urethral valves will be discussed. PMID:17619702

  10. Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

  11. Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchiella, Federica; D'Adamo, Idiano; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

    2014-06-01

    Green supply chain management (GSCM) has emerged as a key approach for enterprises seeking to become environmentally sustainable. This paper aims to evaluate and describe the advantages of a GSCM approach by analysing practices and performance consequences in the battery recycling sector. It seeks to integrate works in supply chain management (SCM), environmental management, performance management and real option (RO) theory into one framework. In particular, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of a battery recycling plant project, and life cycle costing (LCC) is applied to evaluate its economic impact. Firms, also understanding the relevance of GSCM, have often avoided applying the green principles because of the elevated costs that such management involved. Such costs could also seem superior to the potential advantages since standard performance measurement systems are internally and business focused; for these reasons, we consider all the possible value deriving also by uncertainty associated to a green project using the RO theory. This work is one of the few and pioneering efforts to investigate GSCM practices in the battery recycling sector.

  12. Evaluating nuclear power as the next baseload generation option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, K.J.; Sanford, M.O.

    1992-01-01

    Numerous factors must be taken into account when planning to meet baseload generating needs of the next century. Examining nuclear power as an option to meet these needs offers significant challenges with respect to evaluating and managing the business risks. This paper describes one mechanism to accomplish this while continuing to participate in industry activities targeted at advancing the nuclear option. One possible model of pursuing high-risk, long-term projects, like nuclear power, is to spread these risks among the project participants and for each organization to commit slowly. With this model of progressive engagement, participants may invest in early information gathering with the objective of uncertainty reduction at preliminary stages in the project, before large investments must be made. For nuclear power, a partnership between a utility (or utility group) and a supplier team may well be the best means of implementing such a model. A partnership also provides opportunity to develop the long-term relationships within the industry which are imperative

  13. Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

  14. Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes; Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a valuation study of operational flexibility in the complex Brazilian Power System. Thermopower plants represent operational flexibility for the national system operator provided they can be dispatched in dry periods to supply part of the load when reservoir waters are too low. Deficit costs can be avoided as a result. We have adopted a real options approach to calculate the fair value of a financial subsidy to be paid to thermal generators for their availability to the system. A financial subsidy is mandatory for their economic feasibility and, therefore, for increased thermopower capacity in the Brazilian Power System. This is why this policy is currently being studied by Brazil's federal government. In order to illustrate our modeling we have run the model for the southeast subsystem. We found a flexibility value of US$4.52 billion, which represents US$497/MW per year. This means that a 100 MW thermopower plant should receive US$49,700 for each year of its economic lifetime as a fair premium incentive to investments

  15. An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

  16. What makes and what does not make a real option? A study of equity shares in international joint ventures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuypers, I.R.P.; Martin, Xavier

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by

  17. The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

  18.  Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    ) to exercise real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The results are robust after controlling for the size of the firms and their sales in the Euro-area. The results go beyond what...

  19. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  20. What is the best way to enter Florida's real estate market in today's economy? : This may serve as a simple guide which offers options for a startup real estate company to enter any real estate market

    OpenAIRE

    Bryan, Paul

    2011-01-01

    P&I International real estate (PIIRE for short) is a real estate company which left the Florida real estate market in 2006. PIIRE is now seeking the best method to re-enter the Florida’s real estate market within the near future. The owners are seeking the best method to re-establish their real estate business in Florida. At this point the location in Florida has not yet been determined. The determining factors include financing options, business type entry mode, and governmental issues. ...

  1. A multicriteria approach to evaluate district heating system options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghafghazi, S.; Sowlati, T. [Department of Wood Science, University of British Columbia, 2931-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Sokhansanj, S. [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of British Columbia, 2360 East Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Melin, S. [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of British Columbia, 2360 East Mall, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Delta Research Corporation, Delta, BC (Canada)

    2010-04-15

    District energy systems, in which renewable energy sources may be utilized, are centralized systems to provide energy to residential and commercial buildings. The aim of this paper is to evaluate and rank energy sources available for a case of district heating system in Vancouver, Canada, based on multiple criteria and the view points of different stakeholders, and to show how communication would affect the ranking of alternatives. The available energy sources are natural gas, biomass (wood pellets), sewer heat, and geothermal heat. The evaluation criteria include GHG emissions, particulate matter emissions, maturity of technology, traffic load, and local source. In order to rank the energy options the PROMETHEE method is used. In this paper, two different scenarios were developed to indicate how the communication between the stakeholders would affect their preferences about criteria weights and would change the ranking of alternatives. The result of this study shows that without communication the best energy source for the considered district energy system is different for different stakeholders. While, addressing concerns through efficient communication would result in a general consensus. In this case, wood pellet is the best energy alternative for all the stakeholders. (author)

  2. Real-time ultrasonic weld evaluation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katragadda, Gopichand; Nair, Satish; Liu, Harry; Brown, Lawrence M.

    1996-11-01

    Ultrasonic testing techniques are currently used as an alternative to radiography for detecting, classifying,and sizing weld defects, and for evaluating weld quality. Typically, ultrasonic weld inspections are performed manually, which require significant operator expertise and time. Thus, in recent years, the emphasis is to develop automated methods to aid or replace operators in critical weld inspections where inspection time, reliability, and operator safety are major issues. During this period, significant advances wee made in the areas of weld defect classification and sizing. Very few of these methods, however have found their way into the market, largely due to the lack of an integrated approach enabling real-time implementation. Also, not much research effort was directed in improving weld acceptance criteria. This paper presents an integrated system utilizing state-of-the-art techniques for a complete automation of the weld inspection procedure. The modules discussed include transducer tracking, classification, sizing, and weld acceptance criteria. Transducer tracking was studied by experimentally evaluating sonic and optical position tracking techniques. Details for this evaluation are presented. Classification is obtained using a multi-layer perceptron. Results from different feature extraction schemes, including a new method based on a combination of time and frequency-domain signal representations are given. Algorithms developed to automate defect registration and sizing are discussed. A fuzzy-logic acceptance criteria for weld acceptance is presented describing how this scheme provides improved robustness compared to the traditional flow-diagram standards.

  3. “Let’s Wait and See!” The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  4. “Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  5. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C.

    2011-11-01

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  6. Evaluating Options for Civil Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, B.; Carioscia, S. A.

    In recent years, the number of active satellites and human-made orbital space debris has increased dramatically. An expansion of activities in space, as is currently being proposed by many commercial and international entities, is expected to further exacerbate this challenge. The 18th Space Control Squadron under the Department of Defense (DOD) United States Strategic Command provides space situational awareness (SSA) services to users outside the national security community at no cost. International and commercial users demand better SSA service than is currently feasible, and the demand comes at a time when DOD is under pressure to better prepare for and respond to growing space-based threats to national security. Concerned about the possibility of overextending across conflicting missions in a fiscally constrained environment, some DOD officials have publicly noted a desire to move SSA services not related to national security out of DOD purview. Responding to a request from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST), researchers at the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STPI) identified and evaluated potential approaches for providing SSA services for civil and commercial operations in space. In this paper, we summarize the report [1] and present the pros and cons of four approaches to the provision of civil SSA services in the United States: (1) maintaining status quo through continued provision by DOD; (2) provision by a civil government entity; (3) industry self-provision; and (4) provision by an international organization. Within the second approach, assuming the provision of SSA by a civil agency, STPI further identified and discussed four options: (1) civil agency service capability embedded within DOD; (2) independent civil service capability, using DOD software and systems; (3) independent civil service capability, using commercial software and systems; and (4) the government certifies non

  7. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graziani, G; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 - 1999 RTMOD project is a system based on an automated statistical evaluation for the inter-comparison of real-time forecasts produced by long-range atmospheric dispersion models for national nuclear emergency predictions of cross-boundary consequences. The background of RTMOD was the 1994 ETEX project that involved about 50 models run in several Institutes around the world to simulate two real tracer releases involving a large part of the European territory. In the preliminary phase of ETEX, three dry runs (i.e. simulations in real-time of fictitious releases) were carried out. At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax and regular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-based user-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration predictions at the nodes of a regular grid with 0.5 degrees of resolution both in latitude and in longitude, the domain grid extending from 5W to 40E and 40N to 65N. Hypothetical releases were notified around the world to the 28 model forecasters via the web on a one-day warning in advance. They then accessed the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modelers. When additional forecast data arrived, already existing statistical results would be recalculated to include the influence by all available predictions. The new web-based RTMOD concept has proven useful as a practical decision-making tool for realtime

  8. 12 CFR 614.4265 - Real property evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ....4265 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Collateral Evaluation Requirements § 614.4265 Real property evaluations. (a) Real estate shall be valued on... property and operation where the transaction value exceeds $250,000 and the real estate taken as collateral...

  9. EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as ...

  10. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-30

    14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

  11. A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph R. Mason

    2005-01-01

    Literature to date has identified three main aspects of liquidation time: firm size, asset specificity, and industry concentration. The present paper unifies the theory behind these three aspects of bankruptcy costs by treating them as components of a broader option valuation problem faced by the liquidating trustee. In the options valuation framework, at time t the trustee may choose to 1) liquidate at current asset values and incur a known loss, or 2) hold until the next period t+1 at a pos...

  12. Evaluating landscape options for corridor restoration between giant panda reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Wang

    Full Text Available The establishment of corridors can offset the negative effects of habitat fragmentation by connecting isolated habitat patches. However, the practical value of corridor planning is minimal if corridor identification is not based on reliable quantitative information about species-environment relationships. An example of this need for quantitative information is planning for giant panda conservation. Although the species has been the focus of intense conservation efforts for decades, most corridor projects remain hypothetical due to the lack of reliable quantitative researches at an appropriate spatial scale. In this paper, we evaluated a framework for giant panda forest corridor planning. We linked our field survey data with satellite imagery, and conducted species occupancy modelling to examine the habitat use of giant panda within the potential corridor area. We then conducted least-cost and circuit models to identify potential paths of dispersal across the landscape, and compared the predicted cost under current conditions and alternative conservation management options considered during corridor planning. We found that due to giant panda's association with areas of low elevation and flat terrain, human infrastructures in the same area have resulted in corridor fragmentation. We then identified areas with high potential to function as movement corridors, and our analysis of alternative conservation scenarios showed that both forest/bamboo restoration and automobile tunnel construction would significantly improve the effectiveness of corridor, while residence relocation would not significantly improve corridor effectiveness in comparison with the current condition. The framework has general value in any conservation activities that anticipate improving habitat connectivity in human modified landscapes. Specifically, our study suggested that, in this landscape, automobile tunnels are the best means to remove current barriers to giant panda

  13. Was abandonment of the review clause a mistake? Evaluation of management flexibility in the German coal mining industry on the basis of real options; War die Aufgabe der Revisionsklausel ein Fehler? Beurteilung unternehmerischer Flexibilitaet im deutschen Steinkohlenbergbau auf Basis von Realoptionen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bendiek, Ansgar [Hochtief Concessions AG, Essen (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    The author analyses the decision to abandon the co called ''review clause'' (which was the right to revisit the decision to close German hard coal mines in 2012), and thus management flexibility on the basis of the option price theory and use of hedging instruments (derivatives) in coal trading. Only the case of coal production without any subsidies will be taken into account. The original intention of the review clause to subsidise coal production for further years will be left aside. Abandonment of the review clause destroyed a value of the real option of approx. 819 Mio. EUR. It should be agreed with the politicians that the decision concerning potential extension of coal production without subsidies should be made at the end of 2015. At this point in time the coal price for 2019 to 2021 can be locked in by forward contracts. A prerequisite for coal mining without subsidies would be an increase in the coal price of 3.1% p.a., which is only slightly above the inflation rate and seems to be realistic against the background of rising oil prices and increased scarcity of natural resources. (orig.)

  14. Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in

  15. Real Options Valuation of U.S. Federal Renewable Energy Research,Development, Demonstration, and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2005-03-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government funded research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) programs for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and nonrenewable fuels. The benefits estimate for a program derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD3 in place. The deficiencies of the current approach are threefold: (1) it does not consider uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE), and the option or insurance value of deploying RE if and when NRE costs rise; (2) it does not consider the ability of the RD3 manager to adjust the RD3 effort to suit the evolving state of the world, and the option value of this flexibility; and (3) it does not consider the underlying technical risk associated with RD3, and the impact of that risk on the programs optimal level of RD3 effort. In this paper, a rudimentary approach to determining the option value of publicly funded RE RD3 is developed. The approach seeks to tackle the first deficiency noted above by providing an estimate of the options benefit of an RE RD3 program in a future with uncertain NRE costs.While limited by severe assumptions, a computable lattice of options values reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process. An illustrative example indicates how options expose both the insurance and timing values inherent in a simplified RE RD3 program that coarsely approximates the aggregation of current Federal RE RD3.This paper also discusses the severe limitations of this initial approach, and identifies needed model improvements before the approach can adequately respond to the RE RD3 analysis challenge.

  16. Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

    2018-05-01

    The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

  17. Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

    2018-06-01

    This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

  18. Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We calculate the real option value of flexibility from CHP-thermal storage. • Stochastic optimal feedback control problem is solved under uncertain market prices. • Efficient real-time numerical solutions combine simulation, regression and recursion. • Clear, interpretable feedback control maps are produced for each hour of the day. • We give a realistic UK case study using projected market gas and electricity prices. - Abstract: In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions

  19. Estimating spillover benefits of large R and D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2012-01-01

    This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R and D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R and D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD and D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. - Highlights: ► Evaluate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme. ► Consider different types of spillover effects. ► Economic value of spillovers is estimated with a compound real options model. ► Spillover benefits could represent up to 20% of the value of fusion RDDD programme.

  20. Representing value judgements in the evaluation options for nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, S.R.

    1985-08-01

    In this report we show how the concept of Best Practical Environmental Option for nuclear waste management may be articulated using the methods of Multi-attribute Value Analysis. The concept of characteristic weights is introduced to represent differences of opinion on the relative importance of different factors that may reasonably be held, and show how these may be used to summarise information for decision-makers in a concise way. (author)

  1. Incorporation of Outcome-Based Contract Requirements in a Real Options Approach for Maintenance Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    corrective maintenance (which increases as the RUL is used up), while maximizing the revenue earned during the RUL (which increases as the RUL is used up...running the system to failure, then performing corrective maintenance The value from exercising the option is the sum of the cumulative revenue loss...and the avoided corrective maintenance cost. The cumulative revenue loss is what the system would earn between the predictive maintenance event and

  2. D0 HVAC System Controls Evaluation of Upgrade Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markley, D.; Simon, P.

    1998-01-01

    This engineering note documents three different options for upgrading the Dzero HVAC control system. All three options leave the current field hardware and field devices intact and upgrade the computer control hardware and software. Dzero will be heading into a physics run starting in 2000. This physics run could last several years. The Dzero HVAC system is an integral part of climate control and electronics cooling. The current HVAC control system is based upon a 1985 Johnson Controls System. In order to enter the next long-term physics run with a solid HVAC control system, the current control system needs to be upgraded. This proposal investigates three options: (1) Replacement to the next generation of Johnson Controls Hardware and Software with the Johnson Controls operator interface - FESS; (2) Replacement to the next generation of Johnson Controls Hardware and Software with the FIX32 Operator Interface - FESS/Dzero; and (3) Replacement with a commercially available Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) WITH THE FIX 32 Operator Interface - Dzero.

  3. The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

    2007-07-01

    Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  4. The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

    2007-01-01

    Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  5. The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

  6. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind farms in future meshed offshore grids could be subject to different regulatory regimes. Feed-in tariffs would absorb market risk from wind farm operators, whereas price premium mechanisms leave operators exposed to market price signals. In this case, it plays a decisive role which...... price applies to a node in an offshore grid. The offshore node will either be integrated into any of the neighbouring markets, with access to the respective maximum price, or be subject to separate nodal pricing. We investigate the different regulatory regimes for connections to one to four countries...... based on a stochastic model capturing uncertainties in prices and line failures. The stochastic analysis shows that in case the wind park is granted access to the respective maximum price, there is a significant option value connected to the operational flexibility of accessing several markets: The wind...

  7. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    based on a stochastic model capturing uncertainties in prices and line failures. The stochastic analysis shows that in case the wind park is granted access to the respective maximum price, there is a significant option value connected to the operational flexibility of accessing several markets: The wind......Offshore wind farms in future meshed offshore grids could be subject to different regulatory regimes. Feed-in tariffs would absorb market risk from wind farm operators, whereas price premium mechanisms leave operators exposed to market price signals. In this case, it plays a decisive role which...... price applies to a node in an offshore grid. The offshore node will either be integrated into any of the neighbouring markets, with access to the respective maximum price, or be subject to separate nodal pricing. We investigate the different regulatory regimes for connections to one to four countries...

  8. Evaluation of real time operating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung

    2006-02-01

    An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies

  9. Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

    My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

  10. Performance evaluation of real time radiographic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkatraman, B.; Saravanan, S.; Jayakumar, T.; Kalyanasundaram, P.; Baldev Raj

    1996-01-01

    The Real Time Radiography (RTR) system can be studied completely by knowing the modulation transfer function (MTF) of the whole system. The MTF curve is a special form of contrast/detail-size diagram in which the image contrast is plotted against the spatial frequency of a test object measured in line-pairs per millimetre (lp/mm). MTF curves are widely used to measure the characteristics of optical equipment, particularly for assessing the contribution of individual items in a complex imaging transfer system. Codes of practice indicate that the image intensifier systems should be checked periodically to assess its performance through the use of MTF curves and step wedges for contrast ratio. Authors, instead, suggest the use of performance curves which are simple to obtain and can be easily interpreted by radiographers. (author)

  11. Evaluation of real time operating system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Cheol Hoon; Cho, Moon Heang; Choi, In Bum; Lee, Jung Won; Kang, Hui Sung [Chungnam National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-02-15

    An hard RTOS used in the Nuclear Power Plants must satisfy severe performance requirements even in a worst case scenario. Since operating systems are becoming more complicated, it is not an easy job to evaluate them. So it becomes more important how to evaluate the RTOS's used in the Nuclear Power Plants. The purpose of this work is to survey design examples and performance models of RTOS's used in the nuclear power plants and based on this survey, develop a evaluation technologies.

  12. Screening options for Down syndrome: how women choose in real clinical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, T K; Lai, F K; Leung, W C; Lau, W L; Ng, L S; Wong, W C; Tam, S S; Yee, Y C; Choi, H; Lam, H S W; Sham, A S Y; Tang, L C H; Chin, R K H

    2009-09-01

    To study pregnant women's preference among various screening options for Down syndrome (DS) in routine clinical setting, and its potential association with women's demographic characteristics. Women aged 35 years and older carrying singleton pregnancy were offered a variety of screening tests for DS before 14 weeks of gestation. Their preference was confirmed by the test they actually underwent. The association between women's choice of test and a number of demographic characteristics was studied using multinomial regression. Among 1967 eligible women, 619 opted for first-trimester screening test (FTS), 924 for partial integrated test (PIT), and 424 for full integrated test (FIT). Nulliparous women and working mothers were more likely to choose FTS and FIT. Women with history of subfertility were more likely to choose FIT. Women with family history of chromosomal abnormalities were more likely to choose FTS. The choice of screening test could be predicted for 49.9% of women using four demographic characteristics. Among older women of predominantly Chinese ethnicity, integrated test is a favorite alternative to FTS. Their choice of DS screening test can be predicted by their obstetric and socioeconomic characteristics. Many women show willingness to pay for a test with a lower false-positive rate.

  13. EU ETS Allocation. Evaluation of present system and options beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sijm, J.P.M. (ed.) [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Berk, M.M.; Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Van den Wijngaart, R.A. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency NMP, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2007-03-15

    This study assesses various options for EU (European Union) burden sharing and EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) allocation beyond 2012, based on a sample of policy evaluation criteria and a review of the literature on (1) international and EU burden sharing of future GHG mitigation commitments, and (2) allocation of GHG emission allowances among countries, sectors and emitting installations. It shows that these options score differently with regard to a variety of individual evaluation criteria (such as environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, social equity or political acceptability), while the overall performance of these options depends on both the selection, interpretation, weighing and adding of these criteria.

  14. Evaluation of the expression of internal control transcripts by real ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evaluation of the expression of internal control transcripts by real-time RT-PCR analysis during tomato flower abscission. Song Gao, Tao Xu, Mingfang Qi, Yufeng Liu, Hong Li, Shuangshuang Lv, Jinhong Li, Tianlai Li ...

  15. Carbon flows and economic evaluation of mitigation options in Tanzania's forest sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makundi, W.; Okiting'ati, Aku

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents estimates of the rate of forest use, deforestation and forest degradation, as well as the corresponding carbon flows, in the Tanzanian forest sector. It is estimated that the country lost 525,000 ha of forests in 1990, with associated committed emissions of 31.5 Mt carbon (MtC), and 7.05 MtC of committed carbon sequestration. The paper then describes the possible response options in the forest sector to mitigate GHG emissions, and evaluates the most stable subset of these - i.e. forest conservation, woodfuel plantations and agroforestry. The conservation options were found to cost an average of US$1.27 per tonne of carbon (tC) conserved. Five options for fuelwood plantations and agroforestry, with two different ownership regimes were evaluated. Each one of the options gives a positive net present value at low rates of discount, ranging from U.S.$1.06 to 3.4/tC of avoided emissions at 0% discount rate. At 10% discount, the eucalyptus and maize option has a highest PNV of U.S.$1.73/tC, and the government plantation gives a negative PNV (loss) of U.S.$ 0.13 tC sequestered. The options with a private/community type of ownership scheme fared better than government run options. This conclusion also held true when ranking the options by the BRAC indicator, with the government fuelwood plantation ranked the lowest, and the private agroforestry option of eucalyptus and corn performing best. The mitigation options evaluated here show that the forest sector in Tanzania has one of the most cost-effective GHG mitigation opportunities in the world, and they are within the development aspirations of the country. (Author)

  16. Mercury contaminated sediment sites—An evaluation of remedial options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randall, Paul M., E-mail: randall.paul@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, 26 West Martin Luther King Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45268 (United States); Chattopadhyay, Sandip, E-mail: Sandip.Chattopadhyay@tetratech.com [Tetra Tech, Inc., 250 West Court Street, Suite 200W, Cincinnati, OH 45202 (United States)

    2013-08-15

    Mercury (Hg) is a naturally-occurring element that is ubiquitous in the aquatic environment. Though efforts have been made in recent years to decrease Hg emissions, historically-emitted Hg can be retained in the sediments of aquatic bodies where they may be slowly converted to methylmercury (MeHg). Consequently, Hg in historically-contaminated sediments can result in high levels of significant exposure for aquatic species, wildlife and human populations consuming fish. Even if source control of contaminated wastewater is achievable, it may take a very long time, perhaps decades, for Hg-contaminated aquatic systems to reach relatively safe Hg levels in both water and surface sediment naturally. It may take even longer if Hg is present at higher concentration levels in deep sediment. Hg contaminated sediment results from previous releases or ongoing contributions from sources that are difficult to identify. Due to human activities or physical, chemical, or biological processes (e.g. hydrodynamic flows, bioturbation, molecular diffusion, and chemical transformation), the buried Hg can be remobilized into the overlying water. Hg speciation in the water column and sediments critically affect the reactivity (i.e. conversion of inorganic Hg(II) to MeHg), transport, and its exposure to living organisms. Also, geochemical conditions affect the activity of methylating bacteria and its availability for methylation. This review paper discusses remedial considerations (e.g. key chemical factors in fate and transport of Hg, source characterization and control, environmental management procedures, remediation options, modeling tools) and includes practical case studies for cleaning up Hg-contaminated sediment sites. -- Highlights: ► Managing mercury-contaminated sediment sites are challenging to remediate. ► Remediation technologies are making a difference in managing these sites. ► Partitioning plays a dominant role in the distribution of mercury species. ► Mathematical

  17. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  18. Using real options to determine optimal funding strategies for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckhause, Jeremy; Herold, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    Several projects in the European Union (EU) are currently under development to implement the carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) technology on a large scale and may be subject to public funding under EU support initiatives. These CCS projects may develop any combination of three types of operating levels: pilot, demonstration and full-scale, representing progressing levels of electric power generation capability. Several projects have commenced at the demonstration level, with full-scale commercial levels planned for approximately 2020. Taking the perspective of a funding agency, we employ a real options framework for determining an optimal project selection and funding strategy for the development of full-scale CCS plants. Specifically, we formulate and solve a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) for obtaining optimal funding solutions in order to achieve at least one successfully operating full-scale CCS plant by a target year. The model demonstrates the improved risk reduction by employing such a multi-stage competition. We then extend the model to consider two sensitivities: (1) the flexibility to spend that budget among the time periods and (2) optimizing the budget, but specifying each time period's allocation a priori. State size and runtimes of the SDP model are provided. - Highlights: • Projects implementing three different CCS technology types are described. • We obtain projects’ transition probabilities and costs from expert interviews. • We use a multi-stage real options model to obtain optimal funding strategies. • Using this approach, actual decision-makers could reduce risks in CCS development

  19. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission; Teoria de opcoes reais para a precificacao de contrato de permissoes de emissao de carbono

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IEE/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  20. A Process For Performance Evaluation Of Real-Time Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Kornecki

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Real-time developers and engineers must not only meet the system functional requirements, but also the stringent timing requirements. One of the critical decisions leading to meeting these timing requirements is the selection of an operating system under which the software will be developed and run. Although there is ample documentation on real-time systems performance and evaluation, little can be found that combines such information into an efficient process for use by developers. As the software industry moves towards clearly defined processes, creation of appropriate guidelines describing a process for performance evaluation of real-time system would greatly benefit real-time developers. This technology transition research focuses on developing such a process. PROPERT (PROcess for Performance Evaluation of Real Time systems - the process described in this paper - is based upon established techniques for evaluating real-time systems. It organizes already existing real-time performance criteria and assessment techniques in a manner consistent with a well-formed process, based on the Personal Software Process concepts.

  1. Evaluation of five guidelines for option development in multiple-choice item-writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Rafael J; Moreno, Rafael; Martín, Irene; Trigo, M Eva

    2009-05-01

    This paper evaluates certain guidelines for writing multiple-choice test items. The analysis of the responses of 5013 subjects to 630 items from 21 university classroom achievement tests suggests that an option should not differ in terms of heterogeneous content because such error has a slight but harmful effect on item discrimination. This also occurs with the "None of the above" option when it is the correct one. In contrast, results do not show the supposedly negative effects of a different-length option, the use of specific determiners, or the use of the "All of the above" option, which not only decreases difficulty but also improves discrimination when it is the correct option.

  2. An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Dufek, Eric J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-06-01

    examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

  3. An Evaluation of Energy Storage Options for Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.; Dufek, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    examination of energy storage options that could be integrated with nuclear generation. Figure 1 provides an overview of the 2015 energy mix by sector, which shows that NPPs are currently used exclusively for electricity generation that is ultimately consumed in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Some areas for NPP energy growth in the future include power generation for electrified transportation and thermal generation for storage and industrial applications. Currently, most industrial thermal energy users combust fossil resources (i.e., coal or natural gas) to meet the energy needs of the processes, but heat from nuclear operations could also be used in certain specific applications.

  4. Evaluation of Optional and/or Replacement Concrete Sealers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-01

    This is an In-House evaluation of products performed by ODOTs Office of Materials Management. ODOT Spends about $8M per year on coating concrete for esthetic purposes. Built into the coating is sealing capability to help protect the concrete and t...

  5. Real option valuation of a decremental regulation service provided by electricity storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Dávid Zoltán; Martyr, Randall

    2017-08-13

    This paper is a quantitative study of a reserve contract for real-time balancing of a power system. Under this contract, the owner of a storage device, such as a battery, helps smooth fluctuations in electricity demand and supply by using the device to increase electricity consumption. The battery owner must be able to provide immediate physical cover, and should therefore have sufficient storage available in the battery before entering the contract. Accordingly, the following problem can be formulated for the battery owner: determine the optimal time to enter the contract and, if necessary, the optimal time to discharge electricity before entering the contract. This problem is formulated as one of optimal stopping, and is solved explicitly in terms of the model parameters and instantaneous values of the power system imbalance. The optimal operational strategies thus obtained ensure that the battery owner has positive expected economic profit from the contract. Furthermore, they provide explicit conditions under which the optimal discharge time is consistent with the overall objective of power system balancing. This paper also carries out a preliminary investigation of the 'lifetime value' aggregated from an infinite sequence of these balancing reserve contracts. This lifetime value, which can be viewed as a single project valuation of the battery, is shown to be positive and bounded. Therefore, in the long run such reserve contracts can be beneficial to commercial operators of electricity storage, while reducing some of the financial and operational risks in power system balancing.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  6. Evaluating RAID in the real world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ian Bird; Rita Chambers; Mark Davis; Andy Kowalski; Bob Lukens; Sandy Philpott; Roy Whitney

    1998-01-01

    High energy nuclear physics experiments at Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (''Jefferson Lab'') will have a data collection rate of 10 MB/second, generating 1 Terabyte (TB) of raw data per day of accelerator running, and a similar amount after processing. The requirement for on-line disk storage for raw and reduced data sets will exceed 1 TB during 1998. This paper discusses the on-line storage strategy that provides both high performance as well as high capacity, and focuses on the in-house evaluation of RAID (Redundant Arrays of Independent Disks) systems to fulfill the needs of both data acquisition and analysis

  7. Real Time Oil Reservoir Evaluation Using Nanotechnology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing (Inventor); Meyyappan, Meyya (Inventor)

    2011-01-01

    A method and system for evaluating status and response of a mineral-producing field (e.g., oil and/or gas) by monitoring selected chemical and physical properties in or adjacent to a wellsite headspace. Nanotechnology sensors and other sensors are provided for one or more underground (fluid) mineral-producing wellsites to determine presence/absence of each of two or more target molecules in the fluid, relative humidity, temperature and/or fluid pressure adjacent to the wellsite and flow direction and flow velocity for the fluid. A nanosensor measures an electrical parameter value and estimates a corresponding environmental parameter value, such as water content or hydrocarbon content. The system is small enough to be located down-hole in each mineral-producing horizon for the wellsite.

  8. Acne Scarring—Pathogenesis, Evaluation, and Treatment Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Deirdre; Vu, Ha Linh; Mariwalla, Kavita

    2017-01-01

    Acne vulgaris is a ubiquitous problem affecting 80 percent of people ages 11 to 30 years, with many patients experiencing some degree of scarring. This review focuses on atrophic scars, the most common type of acne scar. We briefly address the cellular sequelae that lead to scar formation and the initial evaluation of patients with acne scars. We then discuss an algorithmic approach to the treatment of acne scarring based on the classification of scars into erythematous and atrophic types. Lastly, we discuss the future treatment of acne scars and ongoing clinical trials. PMID:29344322

  9. Methodology for the economic evaluation of cogeneration/desalination options: A user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Cogeneration/Desalination Options is suitable for economic evaluations and screening analyses of various desalination and energy source options. The methodology, based on the spreadsheet, includes simplified models of several types of nuclear/fossil power plants, nuclear/fossil heat sources, and both distillation and membrane desalination plants. Current cost and performance data have already been incorporated so that the spreadsheet can be quickly adapted to analyze a large variety of options with very little new input data required. The spreadsheet output includes the levelized cost of water and power, breakdowns of cost components, energy consumption and net saleable power for each selected option. Specific power plants can be modeled by adjustment of input data including design power, power cycle parameters and costs

  10. La scelta della Fair Value Option nello IAS 40: evidenze empiriche sul settore Real Estate

    OpenAIRE

    Porta, Silvia

    2016-01-01

    The adoption of IAS/IFRS by the European Union has represented a key accounting change for European companies and offers a rich source of analysis to the scientific community. This thesis is part of the debate on-going on the choice between fair value and historical cost as the optimal evaluation criterium. The empirical research focuses on the accounting standard IAS 40, which is particularly suitable for this type of investigation as it is one of the few principles that allow the right to c...

  11. Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yessica González Londoño

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

  12. THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adhy Listya Paramitha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

  13. Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Ranieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

  14. Dedicating new real estate transfer taxes for energy efficiency: A revenue option for scaling up Green Retrofit Programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lester, T. William

    2013-01-01

    As the labor market in the U.S. remains weak, with high unemployment and sluggish job growth, policymakers at various levels of government are looking for new ways to support job growth and investment during an increasingly tight fiscal climate. Policies that promote the “Green Economy” in general and energy efficiency in particular remain politically popular as potential win–win solutions that will create jobs and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, efforts to promote energy efficiency in the residential sector through rebates and incentives alone have yet to reach critical mass. This paper outlines a policy option for state and local governments to use real estate transfer taxes to generate stronger incentives for home buyers to undertake significant retrofit projects at the time of sale. The economic impact of the proposed energy efficiency transfer tax (EETT) is then modeled for the State of North Carolina, using standard input–output techniques. Ultimately, based on housing sales figures from 2010, a new EETT of 2.5 percent on home purchases would generate a net positive increase of approximately 3485 direct construction jobs and 5900 annually total jobs for the state. -- Highlights: •Proposes an Energy Efficiency Transfer Tax (EETT) to catalyze residential retrofits. •Models household behavioral response to an EETT. •Estimates induced energy efficiency investment levels in North Carolina. •Calculates net employment impacts of a hypothetical EETT. •Finds net impact of 5900 jobs and over $350 million in additional investment

  15. A Real Options Method for Estimating the Adoption Potential of Forestry and Agroforestry Systems on Private Lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2010-01-01

    The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV), once was the largest forested bottom-land area in the continental United States, but has undergone widespread loss of forest through conversion to farmland. Restoration of forest functions and values has been a key conservation goal in the LMAV since the 1970s. This study utilizes a partial differential real options...

  16. Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, T.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

  17. Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

    2017-05-01

    The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

  18. An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

    2016-01-01

    A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

  19. Evaluating Nitrogen Management Options for Reducing Nitrate Leaching from Northeast U.S. Pastures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William L. Stout

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Substantial amounts of nitrate nitrogen NO3-N can leach from intensively grazed pasture in the northeast U.S. where there is about 30 cm of groundwater recharge, annually. Management options for reducing NO3-N leaching were evaluated for this environment using the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System Model and a recently developed nitrogen leaching index. Management options utilizing energy supplementation of grazing dairy cows could improve nitrogen efficiency within the cow, but would not necessarily reduce NO3-N leaching at the pasture scale if stocking rate was not controlled. The management option of using white clover to supply nitrogen to the pasture decreased NO3-N leaching, but produced less dry matter yield, which in turn reduced stocking rate. The economic returns of reducing NO3-N with these options need to be evaluated in light of milk prices and commodity and fertilizer nitrogen costs. At current prices and costs, the economic benefit from the energy supplementation options is substantial.

  20. An open-label Optional Titration Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An eight-week open-label optional titration trial to evaluate the efficacy, tolerability and safety of Valsartan 80 mg/ & 160 mg once daily was carried out in patients with mild to moderate essential hypertension at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital. There was a significant reduction in both systolic and diastolic blood ...

  1. Applicability of line outage distribution factors to evaluate distribution network expansion options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grond, M.O.W.; Pouw, J.I.P.; Morren, J.; Slootweg, J.G.

    2014-01-01

    Distribution network operators require more advanced planning tools to deal with the challenges of future network planning. An appropriate planning and optimization tool can identify which option for network extension should be selected from available alternatives. However, the evaluation part in

  2. Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

    2005-08-01

    Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

  3. An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

    2012-11-01

    Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is

  4. Evaluation of retention and disposal options for tritium in fuel reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grimes, W.R.; Hampson, D.C.; Larkin, D.J.; Skolrud, J.O.; Benjamin, R.W.

    1982-08-01

    Five options were evaluated as means of retaining tritium released from light-water reactor or fast breeder reactor fuel during the head-end steps of a typical Purex reprocessing scheme. Cost estimates for these options were compared with a base case in which no retention of tritium within the facility was obtained. Costs were also estimated for a variety of disposal methods of the retained tritium. The disposal costs were combined with the retention costs to yield total costs (capital plus operating) for retention and disposal of tritium under the conditions envisioned. The above costs were converted to an annual basis and to a dollars per curie retained basis. This then was used to estimate the cost in dollars per man-rem saved by retaining the tritium. Only the options that used the least expensive disposal costs could approach the $1000/man-rem cost used as a guide by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  5. Evaluation of cleaner production options in dyeing and printing industry: Using combination weighting method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Hong; Zhang, Yun; Hou, Haochen; Sun, Xiaoyang; Qin, Chenglu

    2018-03-01

    The textile industry has a high environmental impact so that implementing cleaner production audit is an effective way to achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction. But the evaluation method in current cleaner production audit divided the evaluation of CPOs into two parts: environment and economy. The evaluation index system was constructed from three criteria of environment benefits, economy benefits and product performance; weights of five indicators were determined by combination weights of entropy method and factor weight sorting method. Then efficiencies were evaluated comprehensively. The results showed that the best alkali recovery option was the nanofiltration membrane method (S=0.80).

  6. Modelling approach to LILW-SL repository safety evaluation for different waste packing options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perko, Janez; Mallants, Dirk; Volckaert, Geert; Towler, George; Egan, Mike; Virsek, Sandi; Hertl, Bojan

    2007-01-01

    The key objective of the work described here was to support the identification of a preferred disposal concept and packaging option for low and short-lived intermediate level waste (LILW-SL). The emphasis of the assessment, conducted on behalf of the Slovenian radioactive waste management agency (ARAO), was the consideration of several waste treatment and packaging options in an attempt to identify optimised containment characteristics that would result in safe disposal, taking into account the cost-benefit of alternative safety measures. Waste streams for which alternative treatment and packaging solutions were developed and evaluated include decommissioning waste and NPP operational wastes, including drums with unconditioned ion exchange resins in over-packed tube type containers (TTCs). For decommissioning wastes, the disposal options under consideration were either direct disposal of loose pieces grouted into a vault or use of high integrity containers (HIC). In relation to operational wastes, three main options were foreseen. The first is over-packing of resin containing TTCs grouted into high integrity containers, the second option is complete treatment with hydration, neutralization, and cementation of the dry resins into drums grouted into high integrity containers and the third is direct disposal of TTCs into high integrity containers without additional treatment. The long-term safety of radioactive waste repositories is usually demonstrated with the support of a safety assessment. This normally includes modelling of radionuclide release from a multi-barrier near-surface or deep repository to the geosphere and biosphere. For the current work, performance assessment models were developed for each combination of siting option, repository design and waste packaging option. Modelling of releases from the engineered containment system (the 'near-field') was undertaken using the AMBER code. Detailed unsaturated water flow modelling was undertaken using the

  7. Efficient Evaluation of Wireless Real-Time Control Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Horvath

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a system simulation framework for the design and performance evaluation of complex wireless cyber-physical systems. We describe the simulator architecture and the specific developments that are required to simulate cyber-physical systems relying on multi-channel, multihop mesh networks. We introduce realistic and efficient physical layer models and a system simulation methodology, which provides statistically significant performance evaluation results with low computational complexity. The capabilities of the proposed framework are illustrated in the example of WirelessHART, a centralized, real-time, multi-hop mesh network designed for industrial control and monitor applications.

  8. An Application of the Real Options Method to the Valuation of a License to Operate 3G Mobile Phone Service in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Stille

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

  9. Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

    2018-05-02

    The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that

  10. Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects Las opciones reales como metodología alternativa en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Enrique Aristizábal Velásquez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making. Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented. A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method. Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options.Este trabajo busca ampliar la aplicabilidad de la metodología de valoración de proyectos de inversión por medio de opciones reales como un elemento fundamental al momento de tomar una decisión de si se debe invertir o no. Se hace un recorrido por las técnicas tradicionales para valorar un proyecto de inversión y se plantean los vacíos que estos dejan, con respecto a proyectos en los que su principal característica es la incertidumbre. Se realiza un paralelo entre las opciones financieras y las opciones reales que per- mita valorar, utilizando la metodología de los árboles binomiales. Por último, se elabora un caso del que se plantea valorar una opción de espera y una opción de expandir de manera conjunta en el sector de la construcción.

  11. Quantitative Framework to Evaluate Alternative Dispute Resolution Investments in Architecture Engineering and Construction Projects Using Option and Real Option Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menassa, Carol Chukri

    2009-01-01

    A project-specific dispute resolution ladder (DRL) typically consists of multiple alternative dispute resolution (ADR) techniques that are chosen to assist in mitigating the impact of change orders and claims (CCO) occurring during the project construction phase, and avoid their escalation to protracted disputes that adversely affect a…

  12. National Options for a Sustainable Nuclear Energy System: MCDM Evaluation Using an Improved Integrated Weighting Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruxing Gao

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While the prospects look bright for nuclear energy development in China, no consensus about an optimum transitional path towards sustainability of the nuclear fuel cycle has been achieved. Herein, we present a preliminary study of decision making for China’s future nuclear energy systems, combined with a dynamic analysis model. In terms of sustainability assessment based on environmental, economic, and social considerations, we compared and ranked the four candidate options of nuclear fuel cycles combined with an integrated evaluation analysis using the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM method. An improved integrated weighting method was first applied in the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation study. This method synthesizes diverse subjective/objective weighting methods to evaluate conflicting criteria among the competing decision makers at different levels of expertise and experience. The results suggest that the fuel cycle option of direct recycling of spent fuel through fast reactors is the most competitive candidate, while the fuel cycle option of direct disposal of all spent fuel without recycling is the least attractive for China, from a sustainability perspective. In summary, this study provided a well-informed decision-making tool to support the development of national nuclear energy strategies.

  13. A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy David Ramm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans.

  14. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model; Analisis de viabilidad en la propuesta de expansion de la central nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde: aplicacion de opciones reales, modelo binomial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C., E-mail: lunitza@gmail.com [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Circuito Interior, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  15. ASTM STANDARD GUIDE FOR EVALUATING DISPOSAL OPTIONS FOR REUSE OF CONCRETE FROM NUCLEAR FACILITY DECOMMISSIONING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, Ann Marie; Meservey, Richard H.

    2003-01-01

    Within the nuclear industry, many contaminated facilities that require decommissioning contain huge volumes of concrete. This concrete is generally disposed of as low-level waste at a high cost. Much of the concrete is lightly contaminated and could be reused as roadbed, fill material, or aggregate for new concrete, thus saving millions of dollars. However, because of the possibility of volumetric contamination and the lack of a method to evaluate the risks and costs of reusing concrete, reuse is rarely considered. To address this problem, Argonne National Laboratory-East (ANL-E) and the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory teamed to write a ''concrete protocol'' to help evaluate the ramifications of reusing concrete within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This document, titled the Protocol for Development of Authorized Release Limits for Concrete at U.S. Department of Energy Site (1) is based on ANL-E's previously developed scrap metal recycle protocols; on the 10-step method outlined in DOE's draft handbook, Controlling Release for Reuse or Recycle of Property Containing Residual Radioactive Material (2); and on DOE Order 4500.5, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment (3). The DOE concrete protocol was the basis for the ASTM Standard Guide for Evaluating Disposal Options for Concrete from Nuclear Facility Decommissioning, which was written to make the information available to a wider audience outside DOE. The resulting ASTM Standard Guide is a more concise version that can be used by the nuclear industry worldwide to evaluate the risks and costs of reusing concrete from nuclear facility decommissioning. The bulk of the ASTM Standard Guide focuses on evaluating the dose and cost for each disposal option. The user calculates these from the detailed formulas and tabulated data provided, then compares the dose and cost for each disposal option to select the best option that meets regulatory requirements. With this information

  16. The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

    2013-09-30

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

  17. Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

    2006-07-01

    This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

  18. The primary assessment tool at Philips electronics : capturing real options and organizational risk in technology portfolio management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    I develop an extended scoring approach to build a balanced portfolio of new technology projects under uncertainty at early stages of development. My contribution is twofold. First, I show how the tool incorporates the option approach to decision making to create contingent claims on future market

  19. Technical and economic evaluation of controlled disposal options for very low level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.J.; Vance, J.N.

    1990-08-01

    Over the past several years, there has been considerable interest by the nuclear industry in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) explicitly defined an activity level in plant waste materials at which the radiological impacts would be so low as to be considered Below Regulatory Concern (BRC). In January 1989, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) completed an extensive industry research effort to develop the technical bases for establishing criteria for the disposal of very low activity wastes in ordinary disposal facilities. The Nuclear Management and Resources Council (NUMARC), with assistance from the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), drafted a petition titled: ''Petition for Rulemaking Regarding Disposal of Below Regulatory Concern Radioactive Wastes from Commercial Nuclear Power Plants.'' Subsequent to the industry making a final decision for submittal of the drafted BRC petition, EPRI was requested to evaluate the technical and economic impact of six BRC options. These options are: take no action in pursuing a BRC waste exemption, petition the NRC for authorization to disposal of any BRC waste in any ordinary disposal facility, limit disposal of BRC waste to the nuclear power plant site, limit disposal of BRC waste to the nuclear power plant site and other utility owned property, petition for a mixed waste exemption, and petition for single waste stream exemptions in sequence (i.e. soil, followed by sewage sludge, etc.). The petition and technical bases were written to support the disposal of any BRC waste type in any ordinary disposal facility. These documents do not provide all of the technical and economic information needed to completely assessment the BRC options. This report provides the technical and economic basis for a range of options concerning disposal of very low activity wastes. 3 figs., 20 tabs

  20. Low level radioactive waste disposal: An evaluation of reports comparing ocean and land based disposal options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-05-01

    This document evaluates reports presenting comparative assessments of land and sea disposal options for low and intermediate level radioactive waste. It was performed following a request by the LDC to the IAEA. In this evaluation, IAEA Safety Series No. 65 ''Environmental Assessment Methodologies for Sea Dumping of Radioactive Wastes'', was used as the main reference in reviewing the comparative assessments made to date. IAEA Safety Series No. 65 gives guidance on the performance of comparative assessments of the different options, and provides a list and scheme of factors to be considered. 5 studies were transmitted by the Contracting Parties and considered in this review. A larger number of reports was not considered in this effort on the basis that the evaluation would be most effective if directed at those studies which specifically compared ocean disposal with land based disposal in a consistent manner. It is not the purpose of this report to state whether one document is better than another or whether one report forms a good blueprint for future assessments. This would require a different type of review and is outside the scope of this document. Indeed since the purposes of the five reports were originally so different it would not be possible to produce such a ranking and any attempts in that direction would be very misleading. 11 refs, 3 tabs

  1. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft 2 per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft 2 per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements

  2. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft/sup 2/ per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft/sup 2/ per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements.

  3. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 1. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-03-01

    This report, prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), presents a summary evaluation of various shelter options for use in the case where the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft 2 per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft 2 per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The authors find that the FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. The authors also find that, in terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements

  4. Field study evaluation of diffuse ceiling ventilation in classroom during real operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Martin Heine; Jensen, Jakob Søland; Heiselberg, Per Kvols

    2017-01-01

    Highlights •Field experimental measurements during real operating conditions. •Evaluation of pressure chamber effect. •Evaluation of displacement effect. •Evaluation of thermal comfort.......Highlights •Field experimental measurements during real operating conditions. •Evaluation of pressure chamber effect. •Evaluation of displacement effect. •Evaluation of thermal comfort....

  5. Should France invest in new nuclear technology? The enhancement of the EPR project using 'real option' method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epaulard, A.; Gallon, St.

    2000-01-01

    The mathematical tools developed to enhance financial options can also be used to calculate the economics value of investment projects which offer flexibility but whose return is uncertain (like options offered on the stock exchange). In this article, an enhancement method of this kind is applied to a construction project (in 2000) for an EPR nuclear prototype. This prototype will make it possible to use EPR to renew the French electrical infrastructure in 2020 (flexibility), but its economic value will depend upon competitiveness vis-a-vis other production methods available at this time (hence an uncertain return). We demonstrate that investing in EPR technology in 2000 will provide sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered profitable, even though it is improbable that the EPR technology will be used at the end of this period. The investment agreed in 2000 to expand EPR technology therefore effectively has the role of an option, or of an insurance policy (guaranteeing against the risk that traditional electricity production methods will be expensive in 2020). (authors)

  6. Economic assessment of R and D with real options in the field of fast reactors taking into account uncertainty on their competitiveness: the case of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taverdet-Popiolek, Nathalie; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka

    2013-01-01

    In a context of potential worldwide nuclear development, this paper aims at assessing the economic value of pursuing research in Generation IV fast reactors today, given that it would allow industrial deployment around 2040 in case of high uranium prices. Two key variables shall be considered as inputs for the assessment: the price of uranium and the over-cost of Generation IV reactors compared to the previous generation. Our model based on real options theory demonstrates that this value is positive and outweighs the risks associated with the competitiveness of Generation IV. (authors)

  7. GASIFICACIÓN DE CARBÓN PARA GENERACIÓN DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA: ANÁLISIS CON VALORACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES COAL GASIFICATION FOR POWER GENERATION: ANALYSIS WITH REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Concha A

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Se evalúa económicamente la utilización de la tecnología de gasificación de carbón en la generación de energía eléctrica, utilizando información secundaria y el enfoque de valoración de opciones reales mediante árboles binomiales de 2 variables. Se analiza el caso de adaptar una central existente de gas natural de ciclo combinado (NGCC para la utilización de syngas a partir de carbón; en un segundo caso, se evalúa la instalación de una nueva central termoeléctrica de carbón pulverizado (PC o alternativamente una central de gasificación de carbón integrada a ciclo combinado (IGCC. En este último caso, se evalúa la opción de "switching" de combustible. Para los precios de los combustibles se emplean modelos de Movimiento Browniano Geométrico No Homogéneo (IGBM y en ambos casos estudiados se analiza en 2 escenarios de precios, incluyendo análisis de sensibilidad. Respecto al primer caso, la adaptación a syngas de una planta NGCC es conveniente económicamente, teniendo el proyecto una alta sensibilidad respecto a la eficiencia. La sensibilidad a la inversión no es significativa, como tampoco a los gastos de operación. Respecto al segundo caso, la conveniencia económica de la planta IGCC frente a la planta PC no es clara en los escenarios de precios considerados. Pero analizada en diversas combinaciones de precios, la planta IGCC de operación flexible alternando dos combustibles puede lograr ventajas económicas. Respecto a la sensibilidad, se repiten las conclusiones mencionadas para el primer caso.The use of coal gasification technology in the generation of electric power is evaluated economically. Secondary information and valuation of real options approach is used, with two variables binomial lattices. First, the retrofit of an existing natural gas combined cycle plant (NGCC for the utilization of syngas from coal is analyzed; on the second case, an economical evaluation is realized for to compare a new Pulverized

  8. 12 CFR 560.172 - Re-evaluation of real estate owned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Re-evaluation of real estate owned. 560.172... of real estate owned. A savings association shall appraise each parcel of real estate owned at the... under the particular circumstances. The foregoing requirement shall not apply to any parcel of real...

  9. REIT Performance and Option of Financing Real Estate Project in Developing Countries - (A Case of M-REIT and NREIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olaopin Olanrele Olusegun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance of REITs have been largely measured using benchmark from the stock market indices (S&P500, Sharpe ratio, KLCI, etc or correlation studies. The real world of REIT shows that both economic and environmental factors exert influence on REIT performance on a simultaneous nature. Adopting quantitative method, where secondary data were statistically analysed. We proposed the use of multivariate regression where REIT performance (Y is the independent variable to be predicted by predictor variables of internal and external factors (X1–Xn. We equally proposed a possibility of REIT financing real estate project, against the existing regulations which prohibit such, using average return method of portfolio analysis on assumed numerical data. The study finds that economic factors jointly have a significant effect on REIT performance at P =0.044 while none of the factors has significant contribution individually. A benchmark REIT return of 5.3% is predicted. The study recommends a linear regression model analysis for REITs benchmark based on past performance for return measurement. REIT can only finance real estate project in the countries where there is acute shortage of fund and property stock. We suggest a modification of REIT laws to accommodate real estate financing by REITs.

  10. OIL UPSTREAM PROJECT EVALUATION WITH REAL OPTIONS: APPROACH BY LEAST SQUARES MONTE CARLOS

    OpenAIRE

    MARCIO AUGUSTO LEONE KOENIGSDORF

    2009-01-01

    No mundo competitivo e globalizado, dadas as inúmeras possibilidades de alocação de capital e as incertezas econômicas intrínsecas às decisões de investimento, a seleção de projetos lucrativos é um elemento de fundamental importância para o sucesso das empresas. Os métodos tradicionais de avaliação de investimentos, como o fluxo de caixa descontado (FCD), vêm sendo muito criticados por não capturarem de maneira adequada as flexibilidades existentes nos projetos. As vantagens...

  11. Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmit, T.M.; Luo, J.; Conrad, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    U.S. ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the consideration of volatility in both revenue and cost components, as well as the correlation between them. The effects of policy affecting plant revenues dominate the effects of those policies affecting production costs. In the absence of these policies, much of the recent expansionary periods would have not existed and market conditions in the late-1990s would have led to some plant closures. We also show that, regardless of plant size, U.S. ethanol policy has narrowed the distance between the optimal entry and exit curves, implying a more narrow range of inactivity and indicative of a more volatile evolution for the industry than would have existed otherwise. - Highlights: ► An extended real options framework with two stochastic variables is developed. ► Ethanol expansion largely induced by the revenue-enhancing effects of policy. ► Removing effects of policy changes optimal entry/exit environment considerably. ► To expand US ethanol industry, size of policy contributions needs to grow. ► US ethanol policy has fostered more volatile industry development.

  12. Evaluation of storage/transportation options to support criteria development for the Phase I MRS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorenson, K.B.; Brown, N.N.; Bennett, P.C.; Lake, W.

    1991-01-01

    The DOE's Office of Civilian Waste Management (OCRWM) plans to develop an interim storage facility to enable acceptance of spent fuel in 1998. It is estimated that this interim storage facility would be needed for about two years. A Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility is anticipated in 2000 and a repository in 2010. Acceptance and transport of spent fuel by DOE/OCRWM in 1998 will require an operating transportation system. Because this interim storage facility is not yet defined, development of an optimally compatible transportation system is not a certainty. In order to assure a transport capability for 1998 acceptance of spent fuel, it was decided that the OCRWM transportation program had to identify likely options for an interim storage facility, including identification of the components needed for compatibility between likely interim storage facility options and transportation. Primary attention was given to existing hardware, although conceptual designs were also considered. A systems-based probabilistic decision model was suggested by Sandia National Labs. and accepted by DOE/OCRWM's transportation program. Performance of the evaluation task involved several elements of the transportation program. This paper describes the decision model developed to accomplish this task, along with some of the results and conclusions

  13. Standard Guide for Evaluating Disposal Options for Concrete from Nuclear Facility Decommissioning

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2002-01-01

    1.1 This standard guide defines the process for developing a strategy for dispositioning concrete from nuclear facility decommissioning. It outlines a 10-step method to evaluate disposal options for radioactively contaminated concrete. One of the steps is to complete a detailed analysis of the cost and dose to nonradiation workers (the public); the methodology and supporting data to perform this analysis are detailed in the appendices. The resulting data can be used to balance dose and cost and select the best disposal option. These data, which establish a technical basis to apply to release the concrete, can be used in several ways: (1) to show that the release meets existing release criteria, (2) to establish a basis to request release of the concrete on a case-by-case basis, (3) to develop a basis for establishing release criteria where none exists. 1.2 This standard guide is based on the “Protocol for Development of Authorized Release Limits for Concrete at U.S. Department of Energy Sites,” (1) from ...

  14. Requirements of Integrated Design Teams While Evaluating Advanced Energy Retrofit Design Options in Immersive Virtual Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Yang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the significant ways to save energy use in buildings is to implement advanced energy retrofits in existing buildings. Improving energy performance of buildings through advanced energy retrofitting requires a clear understanding of the cost and energy implications of design alternatives from various engineering disciplines when different retrofit options are considered. The communication of retrofit design alternatives and their energy implications is essential in the decision-making process, as it affects the final retrofit selections and hence the energy efficiency of the retrofitted buildings. The objective of the research presented here was to identify a generic list of information requirements that are needed to be shared and collectively analyzed by integrated design teams during advanced energy retrofit design review meetings held in immersive settings. While identifying such requirements, the authors used an immersive environment based iterative requirements elicitation approach. The technology was used as a means to better identify the information requirements of integrated design teams to be analyzed as a group. This paper provides findings on information requirements of integrated design teams when evaluating retrofit options in immersive virtual environments. The information requirements were identified through interactions with sixteen experts in design and energy modeling domain, and validated with another group of participants consisting of six design experts who were experienced in integrated design processes. Industry practitioners can use the findings in deciding on what information to share with integrated design team members during design review meetings that utilize immersive virtual environments.

  15. Underground storage tank integrated demonstration: Evaluation of pretreatment options for Hanford tank wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lumetta, G.J.; Wagner, M.J.; Colton, N.G.; Jones, E.O.

    1993-06-01

    Separation science plays a central role inn the pretreatment and disposal of nuclear wastes. The potential benefits of applying chemical separations in the pretreatment of the radioactive wastes stored at the various US Department of Energy sites cover both economic and environmental incentives. This is especially true at the Hanford Site, where the huge volume (>60 Mgal) of radioactive wastes stored in underground tanks could be partitioned into a very small volume of high-level waste (HLW) and a relatively large volume of low-level waste (LLW). The cost associated with vitrifying and disposing of just the HLW fraction in a geologic repository would be much less than those associated with vitrifying and disposing of all the wastes directly. Futhermore, the quality of the LLW form (e.g., grout) would be improved due to the lower inventory of radionuclides present in the LLW stream. In this report, we present the results of an evaluation of the pretreatment options for sludge taken from two different single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site-Tanks 241-B-110 and 241-U-110 (referred to as B-110 and U-110, respectively). The pretreatment options examined for these wastes included (1) leaching of transuranic (TRU) elements from the sludge, and (2) dissolution of the sludge followed by extraction of TRUs and 90 Sr. In addition, the TRU leaching approach was examined for a third tank waste type, neutralized cladding removal waste

  16. Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2014-01-01

    In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler...

  17. Is 'Opt-Out HIV Testing' a real option among pregnant women in rural districts in Kenya?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wamalwa David

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An 'opt-out' policy of routine HIV counseling and testing (HCT is being implemented across sub-Saharan Africa to expand prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT. Although the underlying assumption is that pregnant women in rural Africa are able to voluntarily consent to HIV testing, little is known about the reality and whether 'opt-out' HCT leads to higher completion rates of PMTCT. Factors associated with consent to HIV testing under the 'opt-out' approach were investigated through a large cross-sectional study in Kenya. Methods Observations during HIV pre-test information sessions were followed by a cross-sectional survey of 900 pregnant women in three public district hospitals carrying out PMTCT in the Busia district. Women on their first antenatal care (ANC visit during the current pregnancy were interviewed after giving blood for HIV testing but before learning their test results. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis were performed. Results Of the 900 women participating, 97% tested for HIV. Lack of testing kits was the only reason for women not being tested, i.e. nobody declined HIV testing. Despite the fact that 96% had more than four earlier pregnancies and 37% had been tested for HIV at ANC previously, only 17% of the women surveyed knew that testing was optional. Only 20% of those surveyed felt they could make an informed decision to decline HIV testing. Making an informed decision to decline HIV testing was associated with knowing that testing was optional (OR = 5.44, 95%CI 3.44-8.59, not having a stable relationship with the child's father (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.02-3.03, and not having discussed HIV testing with a partner before the ANC visit (OR = 2.64 95%CI 1.79-3.86. Conclusion High coverage of HIV testing appears to be achieved at the cost of pregnant women not understanding that testing is optional. Good quality HIV pre-test information is central to ensure that pregnant women

  18. Performance evaluation of near-real-time accounting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1981-01-01

    Examples are given illustrating the application of near-real-time accounting concepts and principles to actual nuclear facilities. Experience with prototypical systems at the AGNS reprocessing plant and the Los Alamos plutonium facility is described using examples of actual data to illustrate the performance and effectiveness of near-real-time systems. The purpose of the session is to enable participants to: (1) identify the major components of near-real-time accounting systems; (2) describe qualitatively the advantages, limitations, and performance of such systems in real nuclear facilities; (3) identify process and facility design characteristics that affect the performance of near-real-time systems; and (4) describe qualitatively the steps necessary to implement a near-real-time accounting and control system in a nuclear facility

  19. Evaluation of Landfill Cover Design Options for Waste Disposal Sites in the Coastal Regions of Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kodwo Beedu Keelson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncontrolled leachate generation from operational and closed waste disposal sites is a major environmental concern in the coastal regions of Ghana which have abundant surface water and groundwater resources. The Ghana Landfill Guidelines requires the provision of a final cover or capping system as part of a final closure plan for waste disposal sites in the country as a means of minimizing the harmful environmental effects of these emissions. However, this technical manual does not provide explicit guidance on the material types or configuration for landfill covers that would be suitable for the different climatic conditions in the country. Four landfill cover options which are based on the USEPA RCRA-type and evapotranspirative landfill cover design specifications were evaluated with the aid of the HELP computer program to determine their suitability for waste disposal sites located in the Western, Central and Greater Accra regions. The RCRA Subtitle C cover which yielded flux rates of less than 0.001 mm/yr was found to be suitable for the specific climatic conditions. The RCRA Subtitle D cover was determined to be unsuitable due to the production of very large flux rates in excess of 200 mm/yr. The results for the anisotropic barrier and capillary barrier covers were inconclusive. Recommendations for further study include a longer simulation period as well the study of the combined effects of different topsoil vegetative conditions and evaporative zone depths on the landfill water balance. The use of other water balance models such as EPIC, HYDRUS-2D and UNSAT-H for the evaluation of the evapotranspirative landfill cover design options should also be considered.

  20. Informed public opinion in the Netherlands. Evaluation of CO2 capture and storage technologies in comparison with other CO2 mitigation options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Best-Waldhober, M. [Energy Research of the Netherlands ECN, Unit Policy Studies, Radarweg 60, 1043 NT Amsterdam (Netherlands); Daamen, D.D.L. [Centre for Energy and Environmental Studies, Dept. of Psychology, Leiden University, Wassenaarseweg 52, 2333 AK Leiden (Netherlands); Ramirez-Ramirez, A.; Faaij, A. [Copernicus Institute, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaat 6, 3584 CD Utrecht (Netherlands); Hendriks, C.; De Visser, E. [Ecofys Netherlands, Kanaalweg 16-a, 3526 KL Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-09-15

    In this study, 995 respondents in a representative sample of the Dutch general population are set in the situation of policymakers: they are faced with the issue of fulfilling the Dutch demand for energy in 2030 in such a way that emissions of carbon dioxide will be reduced by 50%. In the Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ) that was developed for this, respondents evaluated information from experts on seven options for CO2 emission reduction and their consequences. Two CCS options were compared to two energy efficiency options, a wind energy option, a biomass energy option, and a nuclear energy option. Results show that people are not that enthusiastic regarding the two CCS options. These are evaluated 5.3 and 5.9 on average on a scale of 1-10 and not often chosen as one of the three preferred options, but they are also rarely rejected. Most of the other options in the questionnaire were evaluated rather positively, except nuclear energy and the more ambitious efficiency option. Analysis shows that the evaluation of the information regarding consequences moderately influences how options are evaluated overall. The results further indicate that the CCS options are evaluated less positively due to the comparison with other options.

  1. Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

    2007-05-15

    This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

  2. Evaluating Space Weather Architecture Options to Support Human Deep Space Exploration of the Moon and Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, L.; Minow, J.; Pulkkinen, A.; Fry, D.; Semones, E.; Allen, J.; St Cyr, C.; Mertens, C.; Jun, I.; Onsager, T.; Hock, R.

    2018-02-01

    NASA's Engineering and Space Center (NESC) is conducting an independent technical assessment of space environment monitoring and forecasting architecture options to support human and robotic deep space exploration.

  3. Integrated planning and spatial evaluation of megasite remediation and reuse options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schädler, Sebastian; Morio, Maximilian; Bartke, Stephan; Finkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Redevelopment of large contaminated brownfields (megasites) is often hampered by a lack of communication and harmonization among diverse stakeholders with potentially conflicting interests. Decision support is required to provide integrative yet transparent evaluation of often complex spatial information to stakeholders with different areas of expertise. It is considered crucial for successful redevelopment to identify a shared vision of how the respective contaminated site could be remediated and redeveloped. We describe a framework of assessment methods and models that analyzes and visualizes site- and land use-specific spatial information at the screening level, with the aim to support the derivation of recommendable land use layouts and to initiate further and more detailed planning. The framework integrates a GIS-based identification of areas to be remediated, an estimation of associated clean-up costs, a spatially explicit market value appraisal, and an assessment of the planned future land use's contribution to sustainable urban and regional development. Case study results show that derived options are potentially favorable in both a sustainability and an economic sense and that iterative re-planning is facilitated by the evaluation and visualization of economic, ecological and socio-economic aspects. The framework supports an efficient early judgment about whether and how abandoned land may be assigned a sustainable and marketable land use.

  4. Lagoa Real design. Description and evaluation of sampling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashizume, B.K.

    1982-10-01

    This report describes the samples preparation system of drilling from Lagoa Real Design, aiming obtainment representative fraction of the half from drilling outlier. The error of sampling + analysis and analytical accuracy was obtainment by delayed neutron analysis. (author)

  5. An Experimental Evaluation of Real-Time DVFS Scheduling Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Saha, Sonal

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS) is an extensively studied energy manage- ment technique, which aims to reduce the energy consumption of computing platforms by dynamically scaling the CPU frequency. Real-Time DVFS (RT-DVFS) is a branch of DVFS, which reduces CPU energy consumption through DVFS, while at the same time ensures that task time constraints are satisfied by constructing appropriate real-time task schedules. The literature presents numerous RT-DVFS schedul...

  6. Sustainability Evaluation Framework of Urban Stormwater Drainage Options for Arid Environments Using Hydraulic Modeling and Multicriteria Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Alhumaid

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Stormwater drainage systems in urban areas located in arid environmental regions generally consist of storm-sewer networks and man-made ponds for the collection and disposal of runoff, respectively. Due to expansion in cities’ boundaries as a result of population growth, the capacity of existing drainage systems has been exhausted. Therefore, such systems overflow even during the smaller (than the design return period floods. At the same time, changing rainfall patterns and flash floods due to climate change are other phenomena that need appropriate attention. Consequently, the municipalities in arid environmental regions are facing challenges for effective decision-making concerning (i improvement needs for drainage networks for safe collection of stormwater, (ii selection of most feasible locations for additional ponds, and (iii evaluation of other suitable options, such as micro-tunneling. In this research, a framework has been developed to evaluate different stormwater drainage options for urban areas of arid regions. Rainfall-runoff modeling was performed with the help of Hydrological-Engineering-Centre, Hydrological-Modelling-System (HEC-HMS. To evaluate the efficacy of each option for handling a given design flood, hydraulic-modeling was performed using SewerGEMS. Meteorological and topographical data was gathered from the Municipality of Buraydah and processed to generate different inputs required for hydraulic modeling. Finally, multicriteria decision-making (MCDM was performed to evaluate all the options on the basis of four sustainability criteria, i.e., flood risk, economic viability, environmental impacts, and technical constraints. Criteria weights were established through group decision-making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. Preference-Ranking-Organization-Method for Enrichment-Evaluation (PROMETHEE II was used for final ranking of stormwater drainage options. The proposed framework has been implemented on a case of

  7. Some new features of Direct Analysis in Real Time mass spectrometry utilizing the desorption at an angle option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernetsova, Elena S; Revelsky, Alexander I; Morlock, Gertrud E

    2011-08-30

    The present study is a first step towards the unexplored capabilities of Direct Analysis in Real Time (DART) mass spectrometry (MS) arising from the possibility of the desorption at an angle: scanning analysis of surfaces, including the coupling of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) with DART-MS, and a more sensitive analysis due to the preliminary concentration of analytes dissolved in large volumes of liquids on glass surfaces. In order to select the most favorable conditions for DART-MS analysis, proper positioning of samples is important. Therefore, a simple and cheap technique for the visualization of the impact region of the DART gas stream onto a substrate was developed. A filter paper or TLC plate, previously loaded with the analyte, was immersed in a derivatization solution. On this substrate, owing to the impact of the hot DART gas, reaction of the analyte to a colored product occurred. An improved capability of detection of DART-MS for the analysis of liquids was demonstrated by applying large volumes of model solutions of coumaphos into small glass vessels and drying these solutions prior to DART-MS analysis under ambient conditions. This allowed the introduction of, by up to more than two orders of magnitude, increased quantities of analyte compared with the conventional DART-MS analysis of liquids. Through this improved detectability, the capabilities of DART-MS in trace analysis could be strengthened. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Quantitative Evaluation of Biologic Therapy Options for Psoriasis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbar-Lopez, Zarif K; Yiu, Zenas Z N; Ward, Victoria; Exton, Lesley S; Mohd Mustapa, M Firouz; Samarasekera, Eleanor; Burden, A David; Murphy, Ruth; Owen, Caroline M; Parslew, Richard; Venning, Vanessa; Warren, Richard B; Smith, Catherine H

    2017-08-01

    Multiple biologic treatments are licensed for psoriasis. The lack of head-to-head randomized controlled trials makes choosing between them difficult for patients, clinicians, and guideline developers. To establish their relative efficacy and tolerability, we searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for randomized controlled trials of licensed biologic treatments for skin psoriasis. We performed a network meta-analysis to identify direct and indirect evidence comparing biologics with one another, methotrexate, or placebo. We combined this with hierarchical cluster analysis to consider multiple outcomes related to efficacy and tolerability in combination for each treatment. Study quality, heterogeneity, and inconsistency were evaluated. Direct comparisons from 41 randomized controlled trials (20,561 participants) were included. All included biologics were efficacious compared with placebo or methotrexate at 3-4 months. Overall, cluster analysis showed adalimumab, secukinumab, and ustekinumab were comparable in terms of high efficacy and tolerability. Ixekizumab and infliximab were differentiated by very high efficacy but poorer tolerability. The lack of longer term controlled data limited our analysis to short-term outcomes. Trial performance may not equate to real-world performance, and so results need to be considered alongside real-world, long-term safety and effectiveness data. These data suggest that it is possible to discriminate between biologics to inform clinical practice and decision making (PROSPERO 2015:CRD42015017538). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluation of waste management options in view of long-term maintenance-free landfills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brunner, P.H.; Doeberl, G.; Huber, R.; Eder, M.; Pierrard, R.; Schoenbaeck, W.; Fruehwirth, W.; Hutterer, H.; Woeginger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The present case study compares and evaluates different waste management options with special consideration to their long-term implications. Multiple scenarios of these options were created and investigated as to which of term best fulfilled the goals of the Austrian waste management act (Abfallwirtschaftgesetz, AWG). Serving as a basis for this study, an elaborated model of the Austrian waste management, as described in GUA and IFIP (1998, 'Management of Household and Household-like Waste in Austria'), was used. Alterations to the GUA and IFIP study were done in order to best fulfill the needs of this assessment. Household and household-like waste, as well as municipal sewage sludge have been defined as the system input. The following list of scenarios were investigated against an up-dated status-quo (P0): M1 maximum landfilling of untreated waste; M2a maximum incineration without any after treatment; M2b maximum incineration with cement stabilization of the residual material; M2c maximum high temperature process; M3a maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the light fraction from sorting and splitting processed in a fluidized-bed furnace; M3b maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the light fraction from sorting and splitting processed in a rotary kiln for use in the cement industry; M3c maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the high caloric heavy fraction after decomposition processed in a fluidized-bed furnace; M3d maximum mechanical-biological treatment with the high caloric heavy fraction after decomposition processed in a rotary kiln for use in the cement industry. In order to oblige to the precautionary principle of the AWG, each of the scenarios were investigated, with regards to the short, middle, and long-term landfills behaviors of the deposited residual material. The macro-economical Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) was used in the assessment. Additionally a so-called 'modified-Cost-Effect-Analysis' (MCEA) was developed. Unlike the

  10. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for Southeast and Central Europe: Part 2. Multi-criteria assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    Decision making methods are used as a tool for the selection of alternatives to be evaluated on the basis of several criteria. Evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the Southeast and Central European countries is studied using single and multi-criteria evaluation. The potential options included in this analysis are the: Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG Neum Route; and Gas by Wire Route. In part 1, the paper was devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. In part 2, the analysis is based on multi-criteria evaluation, which comprises the possibility to assess the options under predefined constraints amongst indicators. The paper also describes different methods used for multi-criteria evaluation. This analysis focuses on cases with different priorities defined among individual weighting coefficients with the others having the same value. It was shown that all options under specific constraints can be qualified as promising in the decision making process. It is also concluded that favourite indicator constraints may exaggerate some options

  11. An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

  12. Evaluation of Real-time operating systems for FGC controls

    CERN Document Server

    Chalas, Konstantinos

    2015-01-01

    Power Converter Control for various experiments at CERN, is con- ducted using a machine called Function Generator Controller. The cur- rent generation of FGCs being deployed is FGC3. A certain number of FGCs require very fast and precise control, and for these systems, there is uncertainty of whether the existing hardware will be able to provide the level of determinism required. I have worked in the CCS section as a summer student on a project to study the potential of ARM-based CPUs to provide a real time behaviour fit for a future high-performance FGC4. In this paper, i will present the results of my research into real-time vari- ants of Linux and other real-time operating systems on two different ARM CPUs.

  13. Evaluation of supplier obligation policy options: Report for DTI and DEFRA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radov, Daniel; Klevnas, Per; Nagler, David

    2007-05-23

    This report examines various policy design options for a future 'Supplier Obligation' to promote energy efficiency in the domestic sector. It examines possible reasons that low-cost energy efficiency measures have not been taken up to the extent predicted by simple models of household financial decision-making. Having characterised these 'barriers' to energy efficiency we review a range of policy designs that could be considered to reduce household CO{sub 2} emissions. We then evaluate these options against a range of criteria and suggest areas for further research. There is a substantial literature on the barriers to energy efficiency both within households and more generally across the economy. Based on this literature, w e have identified seven categories of 'barriers'. Briefly, these include: Basic financial barriers: These include the potentially higher (upfront) costs of energy efficient products and the interest rates available to households; Hidden costs: These include 'transaction costs' associated with finding reputable providers, time costs of disruption, and the costs of differences in quality of product or service - all of which may reduce the net benefit derived from efficiency measures. Lack of information: If households do not know their level of energy expenditure, how energy use can be reduced, by how much, or at what cost, they are unlikely to consider investing in energy efficiency. Risks and uncertainty: Uncertainty about future energy prices or period of tenure may deter households from investing, since they cannot be assured of future savings. In addition, households may be wary of the risk associated with new (or unfamiliar) products or services. Poorly aligned incentives: The most commonly cited barrier of this kind is the 'landlord-tenant split, whereby landlords under-invest in energy-efficiency because tenants pay energy bills, or tenants do not economise on energy because the landlord pays

  14. Evaluation of real-time location systems in their hospital contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jill A; Monahan, Torin

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of the research was to assess real-time location systems (RTLS) that have been implemented in U.S. hospitals. We examined the type of uses to which RTLS have been put, the degree of functionality of the various technologies and software, and the organizational effects of implementing RTLS. The project was a 3-year qualitative study of 23 U.S. hospitals that had implemented RTLS for the purpose of tracking assets, personnel, and/or patients. We observed the systems in use and conducted 80 semi-structured interviews with hospital personnel and vendors. In order to protect the confidentiality of the hospitals and vendors in our sample, we conducted an aggregate analysis of our findings rather than providing evaluations of specific technologies or hospital case studies. The most important findings from our research were (1) substandard functionality of most real-time location systems in use and (2) serious obstacles to effective deployment of the systems due to the material and organizational constraints of the hospitals themselves. We found that the current best use of RTLS is for asset tracking, but importantly it requires whole-hospital deployment as well as centralized control of the system, preferably by materials management or biomedical engineering departments. There are serious technological, material, and organizational barriers to the implementation of RTLS, and these barriers need to be overcome if hospitals are to maximize the potential benefits of these systems. In addition to considering the available technological options, hospitals must assess their unique environments, including the myriad material and organizational constraints that will affect the success of RTLS implementation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Modelling approach to evaluate safety of LILW-SL disposal in slovenia considering different waste packaging options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perko, J.; Mallants, D.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term safety of radioactive waste repositories is usually demonstrated by means of a safety assessment which normally includes modelling of radionuclide release from a multi-barrier surface or deep repository to the geosphere and biosphere. The present quantitative evaluation performed emphasizes on contrasting disposal options under consideration in Slovenia and concerns siting, disposal concept (deep versus surface), and waste packaging. The assessment has identified a number of conditions that would lead to acceptable waste disposal solutions, while at the same time results also revealed options that would result in exceeding the radiological criteria. Results presented are the output of a collective effort of a Quintessa-led Consortium with SCK-CEN and Belgatom, in the framework of a recent PHARE project. The key objective of this work was to identify the preferred disposal concept and packaging option from a number of alternatives being considered by the Slovenian radioactive waste management agency (ARAO) for low and intermediate level short-lived waste (LILW-SL). The emphasis of the assessment was the consideration of several waste treatment and packaging options in an attempt to identify the minimum required containment characteristics which would result in safe disposal and the cost-benefit of additional safety measures. Waste streams for which alternative treatment and packaging solutions were developed and evaluated include decommissioning waste and NPP operational wastes containing drums with unconditioned ion exchange resins in overpacked tube type containers (TTCs). For the former the disposal options under consideration were either direct disposal of loose pieces grouted into a vault or use of high integrity containers. For the latter three options were foreseen. The first is overpacking of resin containing TTCs grouted into high integrity containers, the second option is complete treatment with hydration, neutralisation, and cementation of

  16. Evaluation of forward sales and options created through natural gas storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1994-01-01

    The deregulation of natural gas markets in North America has resulted in greater quantities of gas being sold under indexed price agreements. As this is occurring, natural gas storage facilities are being developed and opened up for the use of natural gas producers and marketers. While natural gas spot prices continue to exhibit some strong seasonality reflecting higher demand peak in winter, traded futures contract prices tend to discount the expected market price. The elements which contribute to this differential are examined and some of the possible opportunities for the use of gas storage in tandem with other risk management instruments are demonstrated. The specific scenario to be evaluated takes the viewpoint of a natural gas producer considering the storage and later withdrawal of gas to take some advantage of an anticipated seasonal and/or secular price increase, with the objective of locking in future prices for current production. Gas would be stored in a low season and later withdrawn and sold, with the price covered by a futures contract or by a dynamic hedging strategy. The expected returns from a natural gas storage/withdrawal scheme are analyzed and the implications of market volatility, price of risk, the local cost of storage, and observations regarding the convenience yield (a difference between the current spot market price and futures market price for future periods) are presented. Analysis of gas storage proposals of specific duration is included as well as evaluation of potential put options created when the storage duration is not fixed. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  17. Implementing Run-Time Evaluation of Distributed Timing Constraints in a Real-Time Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, C. H.; Drejer, N.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper we describe a solution to the problem of implementing run-time evaluation of timing constraints in distributed real-time environments......In this paper we describe a solution to the problem of implementing run-time evaluation of timing constraints in distributed real-time environments...

  18. RealWorld evaluation: working under budget, time, data, and political constraints

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bamberger, Michael; Rugh, Jim; Mabry, Linda

    2012-01-01

    This book addresses the challenges of conducting program evaluations in real-world contexts where evaluators and their clients face budget and time constraints and where critical data may be missing...

  19. A step function model to evaluate the real monetary value of man-sievert with real GDP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Na, Seong H.; Kim, Sun G.

    2009-01-01

    For use in a cost-benefit analysis to establish optimum levels of radiation protection in Korea under the ALARA principle, we introduce a discrete step function model to evaluate man-sievert monetary value in the real economic value. The model formula, which is unique and country-specific, is composed of real GDP, the nominal risk coefficient for cancer and hereditary effects, the aversion factor against radiation exposure, and average life expectancy. Unlike previous researches on alpha-value assessment, we show different alpha values in the real term, differentiated with respect to the range of individual doses, which would be more realistic and informative for application to the radiation protection practices. GDP deflators of economy can reflect the society's situations. Finally, we suggest that the Korean model can be generalized simply to other countries without normalizing any country-specific factors.

  20. A step function model to evaluate the real monetary value of man-sievert with real GDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, Seong H. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, 19 Guseong-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: shna@kins.re.kr; Kim, Sun G. [School of Business, Daejeon University, Yong Woon-dong, Dong-gu, Daejeon 300-716 (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: sunkim@dju.ac.kr

    2009-07-15

    For use in a cost-benefit analysis to establish optimum levels of radiation protection in Korea under the ALARA principle, we introduce a discrete step function model to evaluate man-sievert monetary value in the real economic value. The model formula, which is unique and country-specific, is composed of real GDP, the nominal risk coefficient for cancer and hereditary effects, the aversion factor against radiation exposure, and average life expectancy. Unlike previous researches on alpha-value assessment, we show different alpha values in the real term, differentiated with respect to the range of individual doses, which would be more realistic and informative for application to the radiation protection practices. GDP deflators of economy can reflect the society's situations. Finally, we suggest that the Korean model can be generalized simply to other countries without normalizing any country-specific factors.

  1. A step function model to evaluate the real monetary value of man-sievert with real GDP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Seong H; Kim, Sun G

    2009-01-01

    For use in a cost-benefit analysis to establish optimum levels of radiation protection in Korea under the ALARA principle, we introduce a discrete step function model to evaluate man-sievert monetary value in the real economic value. The model formula, which is unique and country-specific, is composed of real GDP, the nominal risk coefficient for cancer and hereditary effects, the aversion factor against radiation exposure, and average life expectancy. Unlike previous researches on alpha-value assessment, we show different alpha values in the real term, differentiated with respect to the range of individual doses, which would be more realistic and informative for application to the radiation protection practices. GDP deflators of economy can reflect the society's situations. Finally, we suggest that the Korean model can be generalized simply to other countries without normalizing any country-specific factors.

  2. 78 FR 28864 - Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: In Vitro Diagnostics...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-16

    ... of new blood vessels) and metastasis (spread of cancer). The co-culture system is designed to mimic... contemplating the grant of a Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement to Advanced Personalized... Angiogenesis and Metastasis in Three Dimensional Co- Cultures'', filed June 10, 2010 (HHS Ref. No. E-281-2007/1...

  3. 78 FR 26794 - Prospective Grant of Start-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: Gene Therapy and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-08

    ... embryonic stem cells or mesenchymal stem cells, which are suitable for cell-based therapy. In contrast to...-Up Exclusive Evaluation Option License Agreement: Gene Therapy and Cell-Based Therapy for Cardiac... the field of use may be limited to ``Gene therapy and cell-based therapy for cardiac arrhythmias in...

  4. An initial evaluation of potential options for managing riparian reserves of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon H. Reeves; Brian R. Pickard; K. Norman. Johnson

    2016-01-01

    The Aquatic Conservation Strategy (ACS) of the Northwest Forest Plan guides management of riparian and aquatic ecosystems on federal lands in western Oregon, western Washington, and northern California. We applied new scientific findings and tools to evaluate two potential options, A and B, for refining interim riparian reserves to meet ACS goals and likely challenges...

  5. A rational approach for evaluation and screening of treatment and disposal options for the solar pond sludges at Rocky Flats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickerson, K.S.

    1995-01-01

    This document consists of information about the treatment options for the sludge that is located in the evaporation ponds at the Rocky Flats Plant. The sludges are mixed low-level radioactive wastes whose composition and character were variable. Sludges similar to these are typically treated prior to ultimate disposal. Disposal of treated sludges includes both on-site and off-site options. The rational approach described in this paper is useful for technology evaluation and screening because it provides a format for developing objectives, listing alternatives, and weighing the alternatives against the objectives and against each other

  6. A rational approach for evaluation and screening of treatment and disposal options for the solar pond sludges at Rocky Flats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickerson, K.S.

    1995-12-31

    This document consists of information about the treatment options for the sludge that is located in the evaporation ponds at the Rocky Flats Plant. The sludges are mixed low-level radioactive wastes whose composition and character were variable. Sludges similar to these are typically treated prior to ultimate disposal. Disposal of treated sludges includes both on-site and off-site options. The rational approach described in this paper is useful for technology evaluation and screening because it provides a format for developing objectives, listing alternatives, and weighing the alternatives against the objectives and against each other.

  7. Changing Climate, Challenging Choices: Identifying and Evaluating Climate Change Adaptation Options for Protected Areas Management in Ontario, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux, Christopher J.; Scott, Daniel J.

    2011-10-01

    Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

  8. Evaluation of nasal and oropharyngeal flora in patients with acne vulgaris according to treatment options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozuguz, Pınar; Callioglu, Elif E; Tulaci, Kamil G; Kacar, Seval D; Balta, Ilknur; Asik, Gulsah; Karatas, Serap; Karaca, Semsettin

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate changes in nasal and oropharyngeal flora in patients with acne during treatments with tetracycline and isotretinoin. Swab specimens were taken from the right and left nasal cavities and oropharynx of 55 patients with acne and 20 healthy volunteers who were admitted to the dermatology department (Etlik Educational and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey) before the administration of treatment and in the third month of treatment. Study participants were divided into four groups as follows: patients with acne on topical treatment only, systemic isotretinoin, and systemic tetracycline, and the control group. Of 55 patients with acne, 18 were male and 37 were female. The mean age of the patients and the control group was 22.21 ± 4.22 and 21.95 ± 7.64, respectively. Staphylococcus aureus was isolated from the nasal flora of five patients, normal flora was suppressed in the oropharyngeal cultures of seven patients, and normal flora grew in the cultures of the other 20 patients who were on tetracycline treatment. On the other hand, normal flora grew in the nasal and oropharyngeal cultures of all the patients who were on isotretinoin treatment. Treatment options and follow-up procedures for acne vulgaris may lead to the development of bacterial resistance and damage to flora. In particular, systemic tetracycline treatment leads to changes in flora of the nose and throat in patients with acne with an increased carriage of S. aureus. Therefore, careful attention should be paid to the duration of tetracycline treatment in order to not increase the risk of disturbance of microbial flora. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  9. Use of population viability analysis to evaluate CITES trade-management options for threatened marine fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Janelle M R; Vincent, Amanda C J

    2008-10-01

    Achieving multiple conservation objectives can be challenging, particularly under high uncertainty. Having agreed to limit seahorse (Hippocampus) exports to sustainable levels, signatories to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) were offered the option of a single 10-cm minimum size limit (MSL) as an interim management measure for all Hippocampus species (> or =34). Although diverse stakeholders supported the recommended MSL, its biological and socioeconomic implications were not assessed quantitatively. We combined population viability analysis, model sensitivity analysis, and economic information to evaluate the trade-off between conservation threat to and long-term cumulative income from these exploited marine fishes of high conservation concern. We used the European long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) as a representative species to compare the performance of MSLs set at alternative biological reference points. Our sensitivity analyses showed that in most of our scenarios, setting the MSL just above size at maturity (9.7 cm in H. guttulatus) would not prevent exploited populations from becoming listed as vulnerable. By contrast, the relative risk of decline and extinction were almost halved--at a cost of only a 5.6% reduction in long-term catches--by increasing the MSL to the size reached after at least one full reproductive season. On the basis of our analysis, a precautionary increase in the MSL could be compatible with sustaining fishers' livelihoods and international trade. Such management tactics that aid species conservation and have minimal effects on long term catch trends may help bolster the case for CITES trade management of other valuable marine fishes.

  10. Noninvasive Medical Tools for Evaluating Voiding Pattern in Real Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwonsoo Chun

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Voiding dysfunction is a common disease that contributes to a lower quality of life and has an increased prevalence in the elderly population. Noninvasive and objective methods such as uroflowmetry (UFM and voiding diaries (VDs are essential for exact diagnosis and effective treatment of this condition because patients with different causes of voiding dysfunction can complain of the same lower urinary tract symptoms. Further, different treatment options can be determined based on the diagnosis made from these symptoms. In order to improve the quality of UFM and VDs and to provide a convenient testing environment, several advances have been made by previous investigators. In this study, we investigate the history and technological mechanisms of UFM and VDs. We also aim to review UFM from the viewpoint of clinical and at-home uses, including the recently proposed toilet-shaped UFM and electronic VDs.

  11. VALORACIÓN DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO (CFAR EN LAS EPS A TRAVÉS DE OPCIONES REALES: UNA APLICACIÓN AL NIVEL DE ATENCIÓN IV Financial Risk Valuation (CFARin EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica A. Arango Arango

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available El número de pacientes tratados por insuficiencia renal en Colombia es cada vez mayor; por esta razón conocer los costos asociados a esta enfermedad es una necesidad manifiesta de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud con el fin de garantizar la estabilidad del Sistema de Seguridad Social en Salud. Este trabajo evalúa financieramente, mediante opciones reales, la posibilidad de hacer un trasplante de riñón en un paciente bajo tratamiento de insuficiencia renal y el Flujo de Caja en Riesgo al tener en cuenta esta opción. Se encontró que al hacer un análisis periódico de los costos asociados a continuar con el tratamiento, existen casos en los que es más eficiente hacer el trasplante, disminuyendo el valor presente de las erogaciones del paciente, mejorando el flujo de caja en riesgo y controlando los gastos futuros de la entidad que lo atiende.Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

  12. Environmental evaluation Methodology as part, of the project multi-aspect evaluation of the portfolio of ISAGEN options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayala R, Ana Victoria

    2001-01-01

    ISAGEN designed and applied a multi-aspect methodology to classify and compare projects of the company's electricity generation options portfolio. It was developed from a holistic vision, integrating multidisciplinary information from the economic, environmental and technical aspects. This helped to classify the alternatives based on the sum of the values obtained for the different considered aspects. This document presents, in general form, the procedure adopted for the index formulation and selection of factors including the variables corresponding to the sub-aspects (or environmental dimensions) physical, biotic and social. The investigation's work, selection and classification of the variables were developed by an interdisciplinary group of experimented professionals in the environmental evaluation of projects. The integration of the three sub-aspects (physical, biotic and social) resulted in a hierarchy of projects based on environmental considerations, which were finally articulated with the respective values obtained from the technical and economical aspects. In general, the results obtained in each sub-aspect agreed with the hierarchy of projects based on an expert concept previous to the method application. In synthesis, it was observed that this technique is of great utility to make comparisons and general classifications because it allows to take advantage of information with different characteristics and include assumptions or artificial modifiable methodological items that reflect the structure of the deciding agents preferences at any given time

  13. A Metrics-Based Approach to Intrusion Detection System Evaluation for Distributed Real-Time Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-04-01

    Based Approach to Intrusion Detection System Evaluation for Distributed Real - Time Systems Authors: G. A. Fink, B. L. Chappell, T. G. Turner, and...Distributed, Security. 1 Introduction Processing and cost requirements are driving future naval combat platforms to use distributed, real - time systems of...distributed, real - time systems . As these systems grow more complex, the timing requirements do not diminish; indeed, they may become more constrained

  14. Comparative Evaluations of Four Specification Methods for Real-Time Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-12-01

    December 1989 Comparative Evaluations of Four Specification Methods for Real - Time Systems David P. Wood William G. Wood Specification and Design Methods...Methods for Real - Time Systems Abstract: A number of methods have been proposed in the last decade for the specification of system and software requirements...and software specification for real - time systems . Our process for the identification of methods that meet the above criteria is described in greater

  15. Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

    2017-02-01

    This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. An evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation options for coal-fired power plants in the US Great Lakes States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froese, Robert E.; Shonnard, David R.; Miller, Chris A.; Koers, Ken P.; Johnson, Dana M.

    2010-01-01

    We assessed options for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in the US Great Lakes States, a region heavily dependent on coal-fired power plants. A proposed 600 MW power plant in northern Lower Michigan, USA provided context for our evaluation. Options to offset fossil CO 2 emissions by 20% included biomass fuel substitution from (1) forest residuals, (2) short-rotation woody crops, or (3) switchgrass; (4) biologic sequestration in forest plantations; and (5) geologic sequestration using CO 2 capture. Review of timber product output data, land cover data, and expected energy crop productivity on idle agriculture land within 120 km of the plant revealed that biomass from forestry residuals has the potential to offset 6% and from energy crops 27% of the annual fossil fuel requirement. Furthermore, annual forest harvest in the region is only 26% of growth and the surplus represents a large opportunity for forest products and bioenergy applications. We used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare mitigation options, using fossil energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions per unit electricity generation as criteria. LCA results revealed that co-firing with forestry residuals is the most attractive option and geologic sequestration is the least attractive option, based on the two criteria. Biologic sequestration is intermediate but likely infeasible because of very large land area requirements. Our study revealed that biomass feedstock potentials from land and forest resources are not limiting mitigation activities, but the most practical approach is likely a combination of options that optimize additional social, environmental and economic criteria.

  17. A conceptual framework for evaluating variable speed generator options for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddoch, T. W.; Lipo, T. A.; Hinrichsen, E. N.; Hudson, T. L.; Thomas, R. J.

    1995-01-01

    Interest in variable speed generating technology has accelerated as greater emphasis on overall efficiency and superior dynamic and control properties in wind-electric generating systems are sought. This paper reviews variable speed technology options providing advantages and disadvantages of each. Furthermore, the dynamic properties of variable speed systems are contrasted with synchronous operation. Finally, control properties of variable speed systems are examined.

  18. Evaluation of real time ultrasonography of the normal pancreas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H. K.; Ko, Y. T.; Kim, S. Y.; Ahn, C. Y.

    1981-01-01

    91 cases who were free of pancreatic disease and the related conditions, were studied by high resolution and wide field real time ultrasonographic scanner with 3.5 MHz linear array electronically focusing transducers. The pancreatic examination method and the anatomic structures in and around the pancreas were investigated, and the normal pancreatic findings by real time ultrasonography were as follows: 1. Among all 91 cases, 44 cases were male and 47 cases female, and the frequent age groups were the 4th to the sixth decade. 2. The pancreatic images were obtained in 86% and the good images in 65%. 3. The shapes of pancreas were sausage (40%), dumb-bell (34%), tadpole (9%), and club (17%). 4. Pancreatic size was 1.56 ± 0.37, 2.4, 0.8 cm (Mean ± SD, Max., Min.) in head, 1.32 ± 0.29, 2.0, 0.8 cm in isthmus, and 1.62 ± 0.31, 2.4, 1.0 cm in tail. 5. The successful rate of pancreatic duct visualization was 46%. The shapes of pancreatic duct were linear (22%), tramline (16%), and tubular (8%). 6. The pancreatic echogenecity is greater than that of the liver in 68%, and equivalent to that of the liver in 32%, and no normal pancreas displayed less echogenecity than the liver. 7. Pancreatic echogenecity is lesser than that of adjacent soft tissue in 79% and equivalent to that of adjacent soft tissue in 21%. 8. The pancreatic echogenecity is homogenous in 79%. 9. The pancreatic margin is smooth in 62%, undulated in 11%, and ill defined in 27%

  19. An evaluation of the Aerie Real campaign: Potential for promoting positive body image?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Alexandra D; Rodgers, Rachel F; Franko, Debra L; Jodoin, Adriana

    2016-11-01

    This study evaluated the impact on young women's body satisfaction of an advertising campaign: Aerie Real, which included images of models who were not digitally modified. In total, 200 female students were randomly allocated to view either Aerie Real images or digitally modified images from previous campaigns. In the total sample, no condition differences appeared. However, participants with high appearance comparison reported a smaller decrease in body satisfaction after viewing the Aerie Real images as compared to those viewing previous images ( p = .003). Findings provide preliminary support for the Aerie Real campaign as less deleterious form of media for body image.

  20. A decision methodology for the evaluation of mixed low-level radioactive waste management options for DOE sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bassi, J. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Abashian, M.S.; Chakraborti, S.; Devarakonda, M.; Djordjevic, S.M. [IT Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1993-03-01

    Currently, many DOE sites are developing site-specific solutions to manage their mixed low-level wastes. These site-specific MLLW programs often result in duplication of efforts between the different sites, and consequently, inefficient use of DOE system resources. A nationally integrated program for MLLW eliminates unnecessary duplication of effort, but requires a comprehensive analysis of waste management options to ensure that all site issues are addressed. A methodology for comprehensive analysis of the complete DOE MLLW system is being developed by DOE-HQ to establish an integrated and standardized solution for managing MLLW. To be effective, the comprehensive systems analysis must consider all aspects of MLLW management from cradle-to-grave (i.e. from MLLW generation to disposal). The results of the analysis will include recommendations for alternative management options for the complete DOE MLLW system based on various components such as effectiveness, cost, health and safety risks, and the probability of regulatory acceptance for an option. Because of the diverse nature of these various components and the associated difficulties in comparing between them, a decision methodology is being developed that will integrate the above components into a single evaluation scheme for performing relative comparisons between different MLLW management options. The remainder of this paper provides an overview of the roles and responsibilities of the various participants of the DOE MLLW Program, and discusses in detail the components involved in the development of the decision methodology for a comprehensive systems analysis.

  1. Energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, Michael

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

  2. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Evaluation of fuel cycle options for plutonium utilization: 1977 study. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pardue, W.M.; Madia, W.J.; Pobereskin, M.; Tripplett, M.B.; Waddell, J.D.

    1977-05-01

    This is the third in a series of three reports on the analysis of plutonium recycle. Analyses are based upon an October, 1976, middle case ERDA forecast of nuclear growth which predicts 510 GWe of nuclear capacity in the year 2000. Four fuel cycle options were reviewed, ranging from no LWR recycle of uranium of plutonium to recycle options both with and without breeder reactors. A special effort was devoted to the review of various estimates of the costs of reprocessing nuclear fuels, with a resulting value of $190/kg of heavy metal (deflated 1975 dollars). The associated range is estimated to $125/kg to $250/kg. Sensitivity analysis of reprocessing costs, uranium consumption, average generation costs, and total discounted costs of electricity indicate that the long-term economic advantages of plutonium recycle are quite conclusive. Nuclear scenarios which project low growth rates and which delay the start of recycle and introduction of a breeder reactor postpone the apparent economic advantages

  4. Evaluation of real-time operating system for small-scale embedded systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dayang Norhayati Abang Jawawi; Rosbi Mamat

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, the performance of some real-time operating systems for small-scale embedded systems are evaluated based on some criteria. The evaluation is performed qualitatively and quantitatively. The evaluation results based on a case study on an engineering application will be presented. (author)

  5. Evaluation and suggestions for optional electrical engineering classes curriculum changes in elementary school

    OpenAIRE

    Štulac, Anja

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the thesis is to make a survey about teaching of elective subject in the 8th or 9th grade named electrical engineering. The findings could be helpful to teachers of electrical engineering, engineering and technology, physics, as well as for amateur electrical engineering enthusiasts. It is also aimed at those who seek to make changes in the optional electrical engineering course curriculum which represents a plan of work for teachers of this course. It is therefore an important fac...

  6. Agricultural land management options following large-scale environmental contamination - evaluation for Fukushima affected agricultural land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde

    2013-01-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the food chain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident. (authors)

  7. Evaluating authentication options for mobile health applications in younger and older adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Hassan; Hengartner, Urs; Ong, Stephanie; Logan, Alexander G.; Vogel, Daniel; Gebotys, Robert; Yang, Jilan

    2018-01-01

    Objective Apps promoting patient self-management may improve health outcomes. However, methods to secure stored information on mobile devices may adversely affect usability. We tested the reliability and usability of common user authentication techniques in younger and older adults. Methodology Usability testing was conducted in two age groups, 18 to 30 years and 50 years and older. After completing a demographic questionnaire, each participant tested four authentication options in random order: four-digit personal identification number (PIN), graphical password (GRAPHICAL), Android pattern-lock (PATTERN), and a swipe-style Android fingerprint scanner (FINGERPRINT). Participants rated each option using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS). Results A total of 59 older and 43 younger participants completed the study. Overall, PATTERN was the fastest option (3.44s), and PIN had the fewest errors per attempt (0.02). Participants were able to login using PIN, PATTERN, and GRAPHICAL at least 98% of the time. FINGERPRINT was the slowest (26.97s), had an average of 1.46 errors per attempt, and had a successful login rate of 85%. Overall, PIN and PATTERN had higher SUS scores than FINGERPRINT and GRAPHICAL. Compared to younger participants, older participants were also less likely to find PATTERN to be tiring, annoying or time consuming and less likely to consider PIN to be time consuming. Younger participants were more likely to rate GRAPHICAL as annoying, time consuming and tiring than older participants. Conclusions On mobile devices, PIN and pattern-lock outperformed graphical passwords and swipe-style fingerprints. All participants took longer to authenticate using the swipe-style fingerprint compared to other options. Older participants also took two to three seconds longer to authenticate using the PIN, pattern and graphical passwords though this did not appear to affect perceived usability. PMID:29300736

  8. Agricultural land management options following large-scale environmental contamination - evaluation for Fukushima affected agricultural land

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vandenhove, Hildegarde [Biosphere Impact Studies, Belgian Nuclear Research Center SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium)

    2013-07-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant has raised questions about the accumulation of radionuclides in soils, the transfer in the food chain and the possibility of continued restricted future land use. This paper summarizes what is generally understood about the application of agricultural countermeasures as a land management option to reduce the radionuclides transfer in the food chain and to facilitate the return of potentially affected soils to agricultural practices in areas impacted by a nuclear accident. (authors)

  9. Evaluating authentication options for mobile health applications in younger and older adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Grindrod

    Full Text Available Apps promoting patient self-management may improve health outcomes. However, methods to secure stored information on mobile devices may adversely affect usability. We tested the reliability and usability of common user authentication techniques in younger and older adults.Usability testing was conducted in two age groups, 18 to 30 years and 50 years and older. After completing a demographic questionnaire, each participant tested four authentication options in random order: four-digit personal identification number (PIN, graphical password (GRAPHICAL, Android pattern-lock (PATTERN, and a swipe-style Android fingerprint scanner (FINGERPRINT. Participants rated each option using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS.A total of 59 older and 43 younger participants completed the study. Overall, PATTERN was the fastest option (3.44s, and PIN had the fewest errors per attempt (0.02. Participants were able to login using PIN, PATTERN, and GRAPHICAL at least 98% of the time. FINGERPRINT was the slowest (26.97s, had an average of 1.46 errors per attempt, and had a successful login rate of 85%. Overall, PIN and PATTERN had higher SUS scores than FINGERPRINT and GRAPHICAL. Compared to younger participants, older participants were also less likely to find PATTERN to be tiring, annoying or time consuming and less likely to consider PIN to be time consuming. Younger participants were more likely to rate GRAPHICAL as annoying, time consuming and tiring than older participants.On mobile devices, PIN and pattern-lock outperformed graphical passwords and swipe-style fingerprints. All participants took longer to authenticate using the swipe-style fingerprint compared to other options. Older participants also took two to three seconds longer to authenticate using the PIN, pattern and graphical passwords though this did not appear to affect perceived usability.

  10. Evaluating authentication options for mobile health applications in younger and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grindrod, Kelly; Khan, Hassan; Hengartner, Urs; Ong, Stephanie; Logan, Alexander G; Vogel, Daniel; Gebotys, Robert; Yang, Jilan

    2018-01-01

    Apps promoting patient self-management may improve health outcomes. However, methods to secure stored information on mobile devices may adversely affect usability. We tested the reliability and usability of common user authentication techniques in younger and older adults. Usability testing was conducted in two age groups, 18 to 30 years and 50 years and older. After completing a demographic questionnaire, each participant tested four authentication options in random order: four-digit personal identification number (PIN), graphical password (GRAPHICAL), Android pattern-lock (PATTERN), and a swipe-style Android fingerprint scanner (FINGERPRINT). Participants rated each option using the Systems Usability Scale (SUS). A total of 59 older and 43 younger participants completed the study. Overall, PATTERN was the fastest option (3.44s), and PIN had the fewest errors per attempt (0.02). Participants were able to login using PIN, PATTERN, and GRAPHICAL at least 98% of the time. FINGERPRINT was the slowest (26.97s), had an average of 1.46 errors per attempt, and had a successful login rate of 85%. Overall, PIN and PATTERN had higher SUS scores than FINGERPRINT and GRAPHICAL. Compared to younger participants, older participants were also less likely to find PATTERN to be tiring, annoying or time consuming and less likely to consider PIN to be time consuming. Younger participants were more likely to rate GRAPHICAL as annoying, time consuming and tiring than older participants. On mobile devices, PIN and pattern-lock outperformed graphical passwords and swipe-style fingerprints. All participants took longer to authenticate using the swipe-style fingerprint compared to other options. Older participants also took two to three seconds longer to authenticate using the PIN, pattern and graphical passwords though this did not appear to affect perceived usability.

  11. A Study on Evaluation Issues of Real-Time Operating System in Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Y. M.; Jeong, C. H.; Koh, J. S. [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-07-01

    Control applications such as aircraft, robotics and nuclear power plant have to maintain a very high level of safety, typically defined as the avoidance of unplanned events resulting in hazard. These applications usually operate with hard real-time operating system (RTOS). In this case, hard RTOS software should be reliable and safe. RTOS used in safety-critical I and C system is the base software for the purpose of satisfying the real-time constraints. So, careful evaluation of its safety and functionality is very important. In this paper, we present the case study for RTOSs used in real nuclear power plants (NPP), and suggest the evaluation approach for the RTOS.

  12. A Study on Evaluation Issues of Real-Time Operating System in Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y. M.; Jeong, C. H.; Koh, J. S.

    2006-01-01

    Control applications such as aircraft, robotics and nuclear power plant have to maintain a very high level of safety, typically defined as the avoidance of unplanned events resulting in hazard. These applications usually operate with hard real-time operating system (RTOS). In this case, hard RTOS software should be reliable and safe. RTOS used in safety-critical I and C system is the base software for the purpose of satisfying the real-time constraints. So, careful evaluation of its safety and functionality is very important. In this paper, we present the case study for RTOSs used in real nuclear power plants (NPP), and suggest the evaluation approach for the RTOS

  13. Nominal and real price convergence in Romania – Statistical evaluation -

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Gheorghe

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The creation of both the Economic and Monetary Union and of the single common market have meant two very important steps in getting a more and more compact Union. The first step regarding EMU lead to the adoption of a single currency and to the elimination of the exchange rates fluctuations, while the second one lead to the elimination of physical, administrative and technical barriers in order to achieve a sustainable economic growth and a stimulation of competition. Romanian authorities set out a new target year for the Euro adoption. Technically, the euro adoption as of 1 January 2019 would imply participation in the ERM II starting 1 January 2016 for the minimum 2-year stay. During this period the EU authorities will assess whether Romania meet the determined criteria for entering the third stage of EMU. The purpose of the paper is to assess the nominal and real convergence of Romanian prices, before and after the admission to the European Union (EU. The paper provides a short presentation of technical consideration of the both indices used to measure the price convergence, namely Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP and the price level estimated in the PEC framework. A retrospective analysis since the EU admission show that in Romania, the inflation measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices has been on a downward trend, but is still relatively high, at an average rate of 3,2% in 2013. In Romania the price level is significantly lower as compared to the EU 15 average (46%, most probably this is due to the low per capita income level. In addition, the poor marketing and the low reputation of the domestic goods and services can also be regarded as factors reducing the convergence of prices in Romania and the EU.

  14. Assessment of alternative fuel and powertrain transit bus options using real-world operations data: Life-cycle fuel and emissions modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yanzhi; Gbologah, Franklin E.; Lee, Dong-Yeon; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall L.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a practical fuel and emissions modeling tool for alternative fuel buses. • The model assesses well-to-wheels emissions impacts of bus fleet decisions. • Mode-based approach is used to account for duty cycles and local conditions. • A case study using real-world operations data from Atlanta, GA is presented. • Impacts of alternative bus options depend on operating and geographic features. - Abstract: Hybrid and electric powertrains and alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, or hydrogen) can often reduce energy consumption and emissions from transit bus operations relative to conventional diesel. However, the magnitude of these energy and emissions savings can vary significantly, due to local conditions and transit operating characteristics. This paper introduces the transit Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC), a mode-based life-cycle emissions modeling tool for transit bus and rail technologies that compares the performance of multiple alternative fuels and powertrains across a range of operational characteristics and conditions. The purpose of the FEC is to provide a practical, yet technically sophisticated tool for regulatory agencies and policy analysts in assessing transit fleet options. The FEC’s modal modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of transit service parameters, including duty cycle (idling and speed-acceleration profile), road grade, and passenger loading. This approach allows for customized assessments that account for local conditions. Direct emissions estimates are derived from the scaled tractive power (STP) operating mode bins and emissions factors employed in the U.S. EPA’s MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. Life-cycle emissions estimates are calculated using emissions factors from the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model. The case study presented in this paper

  15. Quantifying the value of investing in distributed natural gas and renewable electricity systems as complements: Applications of discounted cash flow and real options analysis with stochastic inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pless, Jacquelyn; Arent, Douglas J.; Logan, Jeffrey; Cochran, Jaquelin; Zinaman, Owen

    2016-01-01

    One energy policy objective in the United States is to promote the adoption of technologies that provide consumers with stable, secure, and clean energy. Recent work provides anecdotal evidence of natural gas (NG) and renewable electricity (RE) synergies in the power sector, however few studies quantify the value of investing in NG and RE systems together as complements. This paper uses discounted cash flow analysis and real options analysis to value hybrid NG-RE systems in distributed applications, focusing on residential and commercial projects assumed to be located in the states of New York and Texas. Technology performance and operational risk profiles are modeled at the hourly level to capture variable RE output and NG prices are modeled stochastically as geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic processes to capture NG price uncertainty. The findings consistently suggest that NG-RE hybrid distributed systems are more favorable investments in the applications studied relative to their single-technology alternatives when incentives for renewables are available. In some cases, NG-only systems are the favorable investments. Understanding the value of investing in NG-RE hybrid systems provides insights into one avenue towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, given the important role of NG and RE in the power sector. - Highlights: • Natural gas and renewable electricity can be viewed as complements. • We model hybrid natural gas and renewable electricity systems at the hourly level. • We incorporate variable renewable power output and uncertain natural gas prices. • Hybrid natural gas and renewable electricity systems can be valuable investments.

  16. Valuing and timing R and D using a real options pricing framework; including an application to the development of Lunar Helium-3 fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, S.H.

    1992-01-01

    This dissertation uses the real options framework to study the valuation and optimal investment policies for R and D projects. The models developed integrate and extend the literature by taking into account the unique characteristics of such projects including uncertain investment in R and D, time-to-build, and multiple investment opportunities. The models were developed to examine the optimal R and D investment policy for the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project but have general applicability. Models are development which model R and D investment as an information gathering process where R and D investment remaining changes as investment is expended. The value of the project increased as the variance of required investment increases. An extension of this model combines a stochastic benefit with stochastic investment. Both the value of the R and D project and the region prescribing continued investment increased. The policy implications are significant: When uncertainty of R and D investment is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment in R and D will result; the existence of uncertainty in R and D investment will cause R and D projects to experience larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment. The model combining stochastic investment with the stochastic benefit is applied to the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project. Investment in fusion should continue at the maximum level of $1 billion annually given current levels of costs of alternative fuels and the perceived uncertainty of R and D investment in the project. A model is developed to examine the valuation and optimal split of funding between R and D projects when there are two competing new technologies. Without interaction between research expenditures and benefits across technologies, the optimal investment strategy is to invest in one or the other technology or neither. The multiple technology model is applied to analyze competing R and D projects, namely

  17. Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case, South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Song, Yul-Eum; Song, Han-Byul; Kim, Jung-Wk; Hwang, Sun-Jin

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Various food waste disposal options were evaluated from the perspective of global warming. → Costs of the options were compared by the methodology of life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis. → Carbon price and valuable by-products were used for analyzing environmental credits. → The benefit-cost ratio of wet feeding scenario was the highest. - Abstract: The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options, dry feeding, wet feeding, composting, anaerobic digestion, co-digestion with sewage sludge, food waste disposer, incineration, and landfilling, were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process, which included discharge, separate collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal stages, all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO 2 reduction by avoided impact, as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed, compost, and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest, followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest.

  18. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texier, Gaetan; Jackson, Michael L; Siwe, Leonel; Meynard, Jean-Baptiste; Deparis, Xavier; Chaudet, Herve

    2017-01-01

    Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler). We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor) on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1) resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak signals.

  19. Building test data from real outbreaks for evaluating detection algorithms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetan Texier

    Full Text Available Benchmarking surveillance systems requires realistic simulations of disease outbreaks. However, obtaining these data in sufficient quantity, with a realistic shape and covering a sufficient range of agents, size and duration, is known to be very difficult. The dataset of outbreak signals generated should reflect the likely distribution of authentic situations faced by the surveillance system, including very unlikely outbreak signals. We propose and evaluate a new approach based on the use of historical outbreak data to simulate tailored outbreak signals. The method relies on a homothetic transformation of the historical distribution followed by resampling processes (Binomial, Inverse Transform Sampling Method-ITSM, Metropolis-Hasting Random Walk, Metropolis-Hasting Independent, Gibbs Sampler, Hybrid Gibbs Sampler. We carried out an analysis to identify the most important input parameters for simulation quality and to evaluate performance for each of the resampling algorithms. Our analysis confirms the influence of the type of algorithm used and simulation parameters (i.e. days, number of cases, outbreak shape, overall scale factor on the results. We show that, regardless of the outbreaks, algorithms and metrics chosen for the evaluation, simulation quality decreased with the increase in the number of days simulated and increased with the number of cases simulated. Simulating outbreaks with fewer cases than days of duration (i.e. overall scale factor less than 1 resulted in an important loss of information during the simulation. We found that Gibbs sampling with a shrinkage procedure provides a good balance between accuracy and data dependency. If dependency is of little importance, binomial and ITSM methods are accurate. Given the constraint of keeping the simulation within a range of plausible epidemiological curves faced by the surveillance system, our study confirms that our approach can be used to generate a large spectrum of outbreak

  20. AEGIS and Ship Self-Defense System (SSDS) Platforms: Using KVA Analysis, Risk Simulation and Strategic Real Options to Assess Operational Effectiveness

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Uchytil, Joseph; Housel, Thomas; Hom, Sandra; Mun, Johnathan; Tarantino, Eric

    2006-01-01

    .... The results of the research demonstrated that the leave and layer approach for incrementally replacing AEGIS system modules was the most valuable strategic option, providing the highest return...

  1. Evaluation of electromagnetic loads on various design options of the ITER diagnostic upper port plug during plasma disruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pak, Sunil; Ku, Duck Young; Oh, Dong-Keun; Jhang, Hogun; Kim, Duck-Hoi; Cheon, Mun-Seong; Seon, Chang Rae; Lee, Hyeon Gon; Pitcher, Spencer

    2011-01-01

    Electromagnetic (EM) loads due to eddy current and halo current during plasma disruptions are evaluated for the ITER diagnostic upper port plug. To reduce strong EM loads acting on the port plug fixed to the vacuum vessel like a cantilever beam, three design options have been considered: removal of the diagnostic first wall, slitting of the diagnostic shield module and recess of the port plug. The main focus of the present study is to examine the efficacy of these options in terms of EM loads on the upper port plug. It is found that making slits is more effective than removing the first wall. It is also shown that the upper port plug needs to be recessed to reduce the EM load induced by halo current.

  2. Options Evaluation for Remediation of the Gunnar Site Using a Decision- Tree Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yankovich, Tamara L. [International Atomic Energy Agency, P.O. Box 100, 1400 Vienna (Austria); Hachkowski, Andrea [CH2M Hill Canada Limited, 1305 Kenaston Blvd, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3P 2P2 (Canada); Klyashtorin, Alexey [Saskatchewan Research Council, 15 Innovation Blvd no.125, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 2X8 (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Current best practice in the nuclear industry involves proactive planning of activities from cradle-to-grave over the entire nuclear life cycle in accordance with national requirements and international guidance. This includes the development of detailed decommissioning plans (DDP) at an early stage to facilitate proactive, responsible decision-making as activities are being planned. It should be noted, however, that the current approach may not be applicable to historic nuclear legacy sites, such as abandoned uranium mines and mills, which had operated in the past under less stringent regulatory regimes. In such cases, records documenting past activities are often not available and monitoring data may not have been collected, thereby limiting knowledge of impacts related to past activities. This can lead to challenges in gaining regulatory and funding approvals related to the remediation of such sites, especially given the costs that can be associated with remediation and the uncertainties in characterizing the existing situation. The Gunnar Site, in northern Saskatchewan, is an example of an abandoned uranium mine/mill site, which was operated between the late 1950's to early 1960's under a different regulatory regime than today. Due to the lack of monitoring data and records for the site, and the corresponding uncertainties, a number of precedent-setting approaches have been developed and applied, as part of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process. Specifically, unlike traditional environmental assessments for planned and operating facilities, it was not possible to identify a preferred and alternative remedial option. Instead, a step-wise decision-tree approach has been developed to identify all potentially feasible remedial options and to map out key decision points, during the licensing phase of the project (following approval of the environmental assessment), when final remedial options will be selected. The presentation will provide

  3. Results of the evaluation of dematerialization options; Resultaten evaluatie dematerialisatie opties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-03-15

    In 2007 and 2008 VKO and SenterNovem commissioned a study of four options for dematerializing masonry bricks with respect to the consequences for the production and use in facades. The study of the production and energy consequences has been conducted by TCKI. The TCKI report has been incorporated in this report as an annex. [Dutch] In 2007 en 2009 zijn in opdracht van VKO en SenterNovem een viertal opties voor dematerialisaties van metselbaksteen onderzocht op hun gevolgen voor de productie en de toepassingen in de gevel. Het onderzoek naar de productie- en energieconsequenties is uitgevoerd door TCKI. Het TCKI rapport is als bijlage bij dit rapport gevoegd.

  4. Evaluation of advanced propulsion options for the next manned transportation system: Propulsion evolution study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spears, L. T.; Kramer, R. D.

    1990-01-01

    The objectives were to examine launch vehicle applications and propulsion requirements for potential future manned space transportation systems and to support planning toward the evolution of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) engines beyond their current or initial launch vehicle applications. As a basis for examinations of potential future manned launch vehicle applications, we used three classes of manned space transportation concepts currently under study: Space Transportation System Evolution, Personal Launch System (PLS), and Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS). Tasks included studies of launch vehicle applications and requirements for hydrogen-oxygen rocket engines; the development of suggestions for STME engine evolution beyond the mid-1990's; the development of suggestions for STME evolution beyond the Advanced Launch System (ALS) application; the study of booster propulsion options, including LOX-Hydrocarbon options; the analysis of the prospects and requirements for utilization of a single engine configuration over the full range of vehicle applications, including manned vehicles plus ALS and Shuttle C; and a brief review of on-going and planned LOX-Hydrogen propulsion technology activities.

  5. Smartphone Apps for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Training and Real Incident Support: A Mixed-Methods Evaluation Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalz, Marco; Lenssen, Niklas; Felzen, Marco; Rossaint, Rolf; Tabuenca, Bernardo; Specht, Marcus; Skorning, Max

    2014-01-01

    Background: No systematic evaluation of smartphone/mobile apps for resuscitation training and real incident support is available to date. To provide medical, usability, and additional quality criteria for the development of apps, we conducted a mixed-methods sequential evaluation combining the

  6. Establish and Evaluate Ada Runtime Features of Interest for Real-Time Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-02-15

    Runtime Features of Interest for Real - Time Systems -,-. CLEARED POR :)E,4 pUEL tCATLON SEP 2 0 19E19 ,CETM ORP t ’R RE LOO O Nt-U~HM- ANDQ SECURITY...ESTABLISH AND EVALUATE py ADA RUNTIME FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR REAL - TIME SYSTEMS CONTRACT NUMBER: MDA 903-87-D-0056 IITRI PROJECT NUMBER: T06168 PREPARED...2 2.0 SELECTION PROCESS OVERVIEW .................................... 3 2.1 REAL - TIME SYSTEMS IDENTIFICATION ........................... 4 2.2

  7. An Agent-Based Approach for Evaluating Basic Design Options of Management Accounting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friederike Wall

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing errors in management accounting systems with respect to organizational performance. In particular, different basic design options of management accounting systems of how to improve the information base by measurements of actual values are analyzed in different organizational contexts. The paper applies an agent-based simulation based on the idea of NK fitness landscapes. The results provide broad, but no universal support for conventional wisdom that lower inaccuracies of accounting information lead to more effective adaptation processes. Furthermore, results indicate that the effectiveness of improving the management accounting system subtly interferes with the complexity of the interactions within the organization and the coordination mode applied

  8. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  9. Comparison and evaluation of nuclear power plant options for geosynchronous power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.R.

    1975-01-01

    A solution to the safety, safeguards, and radwaste disposal problems of nuclear power is to locate the breeder reactor power plants far out in geosynchronous orbit and beam the power to earth with microwaves. The generation of nuclear power in space is technologically feasible and has already been demonstrated on a small scale. It has also been shown that high efficiency microwave transmission of power from synchronous orbit to earth is feasible and is not hazardous. The reactor safety problem would be virtually eliminated because of the remoteness of the satellite power station in geosynchronous orbit. The worst possible accident at such a plant would have negligible effect on the earth, certainly less than the high altitude nuclear explosions which have been conducted in the past. Accidental re-entry from geosynchronous orbit could not occur because of the very large velocity change required. The safeguards problem can be virtually eliminated by adopting the following procedures: 1) The plant is initially started up using U-235 fuel or bred plutonium or U-233 from another geosynchronous power plant, 2) Once the plant is operating, only nonhazardous fertile materials (thorium or depleted uranium) are shipped up from earth, 3) The fissile fuel is bred and used in space, and none of this highly toxic fissile material is ever returned to earth. The radioactive waste could be concentrated and ejected in canisters into deep space away from the earth. The geosynchronous nuclear power plant offers unlimited nuclear power without nuclear hazards or nuclear pollution, but at somewhat higher cost. Whether or not society will be willing to pay these higher costs of nuclear power from space, or whether new energy resources such as nuclear fusion or solar power become feasible, remains to be seen. A prudent course to follow would be to give careful consideration to all future options for large scale energy generation, including the option of nuclear power from space

  10. Carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluation of different EU ETS reform options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brink, Corjan; Vollebergh, Herman R.J.; Werf, Edwin van der

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies various options to support allowance prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as adjusting the cap, an auction reserve price, and fixed and variable carbon taxes in addition to the EU ETS. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that explicitly allows for allowance banking and for a detailed cost-effectiveness analysis at the EU Member State level. We find that tightening the cap provides an ad hoc solution to the fundamental issue of the robustness of the effective carbon price, while introducing a price component to the ETS brings structural carbon price support in times of negative demand shocks for emission allowances. These price-based policies still benefit from the intertemporal flexibility through the banking provision in the EU ETS by re-allocating emissions over time with stronger emission reductions in early years and emission increases in later years. A higher emission price has a larger negative impact on the new Member States' economies than on other Member States. Furthermore, introducing a carbon tax in addition to the EU ETS decreases the price of allowances, resulting in welfare gains for net buyers of allowances while net sellers are worse off. - Highlights: • We analyse reform options for European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) with a CGE model. • Variable carbon tax and auction reserve price support carbon price at least cost. • Price-based reforms decrease early emissions but increase later emissions through banking. • New Member States' economies are affected more than others by higher CO_2 prices. • Lower allowance prices due to a carbon tax are unfavourable to net sellers of allowances.

  11. An approach for assessing development and deployment risks in the DOE fuel cycle options evaluation and screening study - 5267

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gehin, J.C.; Worrall, A.; Oakley, B.; Jenni, K.; Taiwo, T.; Wigeland, R.

    2015-01-01

    One of the key objectives of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Research/development road-map is the development of sustainable nuclear fuel cycles that can improve natural resource utilization and provide solutions to the management of nuclear wastes. Recently, an evaluation and screening (ES) of fuel cycle systems has been conducted to identify those options that provide the best opportunities for obtaining such improvements and also to identify the required research and development activities that can support the development of advanced fuel cycle options. In order to evaluate and screen fuel cycle systems in the ES study, nine criteria were used including Development and Deployment Risk (DDR). More specifically, this criterion was represented by the following metrics: Development time, development cost, deployment cost from prototypic validation to first-of-a-kind commercial, compatibility with the existing nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure, existence of regulations for the fuel cycle and familiarity with licensing, and existence of market incentives and/or barriers to commercial implementation of fuel cycle processes. Given the comprehensive nature of the study, a systematic approach was needed to determine metric data for the DDR criterion. As would be expected, the Evaluation Group representing the once-through use of uranium in thermal reactors is always the highest ranked fuel cycle Evaluation Group for this DDR criterion. Evaluation Groups that consist of once-through fuel cycles that use existing reactor types are consistently ranked very high. The highest ranked limited and continuous recycle fuel cycle Evaluation Groups are those that recycle Pu in thermal reactors. The lowest ranked fuel cycles are predominately continuous recycle single stage and multi-stage fuel cycles that involve TRU and/or U 233 recycle. (authors)

  12. Evaluation of highly accelerated real-time cardiac cine MRI in tachycardia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, Elwin C; Kholmovski, Eugene G; Wilson, Brent D; DiBella, Edward V R; Dosdall, Derek J; Ranjan, Ravi; McGann, Christopher J; Kim, Daniel

    2014-02-01

    Electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated breath-hold cine MRI is considered to be the gold standard test for the assessment of cardiac function. However, it may fail in patients with arrhythmia, impaired breath-hold capacity and poor ECG gating. Although ungated real-time cine MRI may mitigate these problems, commercially available real-time cine MRI pulse sequences using parallel imaging typically yield relatively poor spatiotemporal resolution because of their low image acquisition efficiency. As an extension of our previous work, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic quality and accuracy of eight-fold-accelerated real-time cine MRI with compressed sensing (CS) for the quantification of cardiac function in tachycardia, where it is challenging for real-time cine MRI to provide sufficient spatiotemporal resolution. We evaluated the performances of eight-fold-accelerated cine MRI with CS, three-fold-accelerated real-time cine MRI with temporal generalized autocalibrating partially parallel acquisitions (TGRAPPA) and ECG-gated breath-hold cine MRI in 21 large animals with tachycardia (mean heart rate, 104 beats per minute) at 3T. For each cine MRI method, two expert readers evaluated the diagnostic quality in four categories (image quality, temporal fidelity of wall motion, artifacts and apparent noise) using a Likert scale (1-5, worst to best). One reader evaluated the left ventricular functional parameters. The diagnostic quality scores were significantly different between the three cine pulse sequences, except for the artifact level between CS and TGRAPPA real-time cine MRI. Both ECG-gated breath-hold cine MRI and eight-fold accelerated real-time cine MRI yielded all four scores of ≥ 3.0 (acceptable), whereas three-fold-accelerated real-time cine MRI yielded all scores below 3.0, except for artifact (3.0). The left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) measurements agreed better between ECG-gated cine MRI and eight-fold-accelerated real-time cine MRI

  13. TANK SPACE OPTIONS REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willis, W.L.; Ahrendt, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    Since this report was originally issued in 2001, several options proposed for increasing double-shell tank (DST) storage space were implemented or are in the process of implementation. Changes to the single-shell tank (SST) waste retrieval schedule, completion of DST space saving options, and the DST space saving options in progress have delayed the projected shortfall of DST storage space from the 2007-2011 to the 2018-2025 timeframe (ORP-11242, River Protection Project System Plan). This report reevaluates options from Rev. 0 and includes evaluations of new options for alleviating projected restrictions on SST waste retrieval beginning in 2018 because of the lack of DST storage space.

  14. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Niu, Guo-Yue; Yang, Zong-Liang; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Chen, Fei; Ek, Michael B.; Barlage, Michael; Kumar, Anil; Manning, Kevin; Niyogi, Dev; Rosero, Enrique; Tewari, Mukul; Xia, Youlong

    2011-01-01

    processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP's performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple

  15. Evaluation of policy options to reform the EU Emissions Trading System. Effects on carbon price, emissions and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verdonk, M.; Brink, C.; Vollebergh, H.; Roelfsema, M.

    2013-04-15

    The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a key instrument of EU climate policy, providing a clear reduction pathway for CO2 emissions. The current carbon price (of about 3 euros per tonne of CO2, April 2013) is much lower than previously expected (which was around 30 euros) and is likely to remain low for a long time. This fuels doubts about whether the ETS will remain a key policy instrument in the long term. Such doubts also increase investment uncertainty, which is likely to have a negative impact on further investments in low-carbon technologies needed for a low-carbon economy in 2050. In November 2012, the European Commission put forward six options for a more structural reform of the EU ETS. The proposed options vary from reducing the cap and expanding the ETS to include other sectors, to strengthening the ETS by measures directly affecting allowance prices. The Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (IenM) asked the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency to assess the impact of these options. Four categories of options for reforming the ETS were evaluated: (1) reducing the supply of emission allowances; (2) expanding the ETS by including other sectors; (3) a minimum price for auctioned allowances; and (4) combining ETS with a carbon tax. Recently, the European Parliament voted against the European Commission's proposal to temporarily set aside emission allowances. In an earlier assessment of this proposal, PBL concluded that the impact of this backloading proposal on CO2 prices is likely to be limited, because the total amount of allowances up to 2020 would remain unchanged. All options analysed would reduce emissions and cause the emission price to increase. A minimum price on carbon, however, would provide the best opportunity to make the ETS more robust against unforeseen events, such as a further deterioration of the economy. Such a minimum price would result in more emission reductions if abatement proves to be cheaper

  16. Evaluation of transcranial surgical decompression of the optic canal as a treatment option for traumatic optic neuropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhenhua; Li, Qiang; Yuan, Jingmin; Zhang, Xinding; Gao, Ruiping; Han, Yanming; Yang, Wenzhen; Shi, Xuefeng; Lan, Zhengbo

    2015-07-01

    Traumatic optic neuropathy (TON) is a serious complication of head trauma, with the incidence rate ranging from 0.5% to 5%. The two treatment options widely practiced for TON are: (i) high-dose corticosteroid therapy and (ii) surgical decompression. However, till date, there is no consensus on the treatment protocol. This study aimed to evaluate the therapeutic efficacy of transcranial decompression of optic canal in TON patients. A total of 39 patients with visual loss resulting from TON between January 2005 and June 2013 were retrospectively reviewed for preoperative vision, preoperative image, visual evoked potential (VEP), surgical approach, postoperative visual acuity, complications, and follow-up results. All these patients underwent transcranial decompression of optic canal. During the three-month follow-up period, among the 39 patients, 21 showed an improvement in their eyesight, 6 recovered to standard logarithmic visual acuity chart "visible," 10 could count fingers, 2 could see hand movement, and 3 regained light sensation. Visual evoked potential could be used as an important preoperative and prognostic evaluation parameter for TON patients. Once TON was diagnosed, surgery is a promising therapeutic option, especially when a VEP wave is detected, irrespective of the HRCT scan findings. Operative time between trauma and operation is not necessary reference to assess the therapeutic effect of surgical decompression. The poor results of this procedure may be related to the severity of optic nerve injury. The patient's age is an important factor affecting the surgical outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for south east and central Europe. Part 1: Indicator definitions and single indicator analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2007-01-01

    The need for diversification of energy sources is an immanent goal in long term energy strategy. In particular, this is of great importance for the natural gas supply. In this respect, evaluation and assessment of potential natural gas resources and their relation to consumers is of great importance. The natural gas supply in Europe is one of the main issues of European energy strategy to be followed in the future. In particular, the natural gas supply in the southeast countries is important. This paper provides a framework for understanding how much natural gas is available for use in south east and central Europe as well as the links to the recent supply of natural gas and its transport. The analysis is focused on evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the south east and central European countries. The potential options included in this analysis are the Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG NEUM Route and Gas by Wire Route. In this analysis, attention is focused on the following indicators for assessment of potential options: environmental indicator; NG cost indicator; NG transport and royalty indicator; investment indicator; and NG demand indicator. The first part of this paper is devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. (author)

  18. Evaluation of small wind turbines in distributed arrangement as sustainable wind energy option for Barbados

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bishop, Justin D.K.; Amaratunga, Gehan A.J.

    2008-01-01

    The island of Barbados is 99% dependent on fossil fuel imports to satisfy its energy needs, which is unsustainable. This study proposes a 10 MW distributed wind energy scheme using micro wind turbines (WT) of horizontal (HAWT) and vertical axis (VAWT) configurations. These units are rated less than 500 W, and the scheme is hereafter referred to as mWT10. mWT10 is compared to the proposed 10 MW medium WT farm by the Barbados Light and Power Company (BL and P). The economic bottom line is the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The results highlight the BL and P proposal as the best economic option at BDS$0.19 per kWh, while that of both mWT10 configurations exceeds the conventional cost of BDS$0.25 by two to nine times. This is attributed to significantly higher relative installation and operational costs. However, the financial gap between mWT10 LCOE and the retail price of electricity is much smaller due to a large fuel surcharge passed on to each customer. Annual additional benefits of using wind energy include: greenhouse gas emissions savings of 6-23 kt of carbon dioxide; and anavoided fuel costs of BDS$1.5-5.3 million. The distributed mWT10 using HAWTs competes directly with the BL and P farm, however, it provides these benefits without the visual or ecological impacts of the larger machines. Conversely, VAWTs have features that favour a visually discrete and widely repeatable scheme but suffer relatively high costs. Therefore, this study illustrates the great potential of small wind turbines to be competitive with conventional wind farms, thus challenging the small wind industry to meet its potential by producing reliable and robust machines at lower cost

  19. Rehabilitation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...

  20. Options theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markland, J.T.

    1992-01-01

    Techniques used in conventional project appraisal are mathematically very simple in comparison to those used in reservoir modelling, and in the geosciences. Clearly it would be possible to value assets in mathematically more sophisticated ways if it were meaningful and worthwhile so to do. The DCf approach in common use has recognized limitations; the inability to select a meaningful discount rate being particularly significant. Financial Theory has advanced enormously over the last few years, along with computational techniques, and methods are beginning to appear which may change the way we do project evaluations in practice. The starting point for all of this was a paper by Black and Scholes, which asserts that almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as options of varying degrees of complexity. Although the financial presentation may be unfamiliar to engineers and geoscientists, some of the concepts used will not be. This paper outlines, in plain English, the basis of option pricing theory for assessing the market value of a project. it also attempts to assess the future role of this type of approach in practical Petroleum Exploration and Engineering economics. Reference is made to relevant published Natural Resource literature

  1. Evaluation of selected near-term energy-conservation options for the Midwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, A.R.; Colsher, C.S.; Hamilton, R.W.; Buehring, W.A.

    1978-11-01

    This report evaluates the potential for implementation of near-term energy-conservation practices for the residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial, transportation, and utility sectors of the economy in twelve states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The information used to evaluate the magnitude of achievable energy savings includes regional energy use, the regulatory/legislative climate relating to energy conservation, technical characteristics of the measures, and their feasibility of implementation. This work is intended to provide baseline information for an ongoing regional assessment of energy and environmental impacts in the Midwest. 80 references.

  2. A novel dataset for real-life evaluation of facial expression recognition methodologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siddiqi, Muhammad Hameed; Ali, Maqbool; Idris, Muhammad; Banos Legran, Oresti; Lee, Sungyoung; Choo, Hyunseung

    2016-01-01

    One limitation seen among most of the previous methods is that they were evaluated under settings that are far from real-life scenarios. The reason is that the existing facial expression recognition (FER) datasets are mostly pose-based and assume a predefined setup. The expressions in these datasets

  3. A Real-Time evaluation system for a state-of-charge indication algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pop, V.; Bergveld, H.J.; Notten, P.H.L.; Regtien, Paulus P.L.

    2005-01-01

    The known methods of State-of-Charge (SoC) indication in portable applications are not accurate enough under all practical conditions. This paper describes a real- time evaluation LabVIEW system for an SoC algorithm, that calculates the SoC in [%] and also the remaining run-time available under the

  4. A real-time evaluation system for a state-of-charge indication algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pop, V.; Bergveld, H.J.; Notten, P.H.L.; Regtien, P.P.L.

    2005-01-01

    The known methods of State-of-Charge (SoC) indication in portable applications are not accurate enough under all practical conditions. This paper describes a real- time evaluation LabVIEW system for an SoC algorithm, that calculates the SoC in [%] and also the remaining run-time available under the

  5. A Comparison and Evaluation of Real-Time Software Systems Modeling Languages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evensen, Kenneth D.; Weiss, Kathryn Anne

    2010-01-01

    A model-driven approach to real-time software systems development enables the conceptualization of software, fostering a more thorough understanding of its often complex architecture and behavior while promoting the documentation and analysis of concerns common to real-time embedded systems such as scheduling, resource allocation, and performance. Several modeling languages have been developed to assist in the model-driven software engineering effort for real-time systems, and these languages are beginning to gain traction with practitioners throughout the aerospace industry. This paper presents a survey of several real-time software system modeling languages, namely the Architectural Analysis and Design Language (AADL), the Unified Modeling Language (UML), Systems Modeling Language (SysML), the Modeling and Analysis of Real-Time Embedded Systems (MARTE) UML profile, and the AADL for UML profile. Each language has its advantages and disadvantages, and in order to adequately describe a real-time software system's architecture, a complementary use of multiple languages is almost certainly necessary. This paper aims to explore these languages in the context of understanding the value each brings to the model-driven software engineering effort and to determine if it is feasible and practical to combine aspects of the various modeling languages to achieve more complete coverage in architectural descriptions. To this end, each language is evaluated with respect to a set of criteria such as scope, formalisms, and architectural coverage. An example is used to help illustrate the capabilities of the various languages.

  6. Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthews, R.B.; Kropff, M.J.; Horie, T.; Bachelet, D.

    1997-01-01

    The likely effects of climate change caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on rice production in Asia were evaluated using two rice crop simulation models, ORYZA1 and SIMRIW, running under fixed-change' climate scenarios and scenarios predicted for a doubled-CO2 (2xCO2) atmosphere

  7. Evaluation of storage/transportation options to support criteria development for the Phase I MRS [Monitored Retrievable Storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorenson, K.B.; Brown, N.N.; Bennett, P.C.; Lake, W.

    1991-01-01

    The Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Civilian Waste Management (OCRWM) plans to develop an interim storage facility to enable acceptance of spent fuel in 1998. It is estimated that this interim storage facility would be needed for about two years. A Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) facility is anticipated in 2000 and a repository in 2010. Acceptance and transport of spent fuel by DOE/OCRWM in 1998 will require an operating transportation system. Because this interim storage facility is not yet defined, development of an optimally compatible transportation system is not a certainty. In order to assure a transport capability for 1998 acceptance of spent fuel, it was decided that the OCRWM transportation program had to identify likely options for an interim storage facility, including identification of the components needed for compatibility between likely interim storage facility options and transportation. Primary attention was given to existing hardware, although conceptual designs were also considered. A systems-based probabilistic decision model was suggested by Sandia National Laboratories and accepted by DOE/OCRWM's transportation program. Performance of the evaluation task involved several elements of the transportation program. This paper describes the decision model developed to accomplish this task, along with some of the results and conclusions. 1 ref., 4 figs

  8. Application of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation in Selection of Best Sludge Dewatering Option in Ghods Town WWTP in Tehran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Taheriyoun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The design and upgrade of sludge treatment systems generally depend on the decision made regarding the appropriate system from among the options available. The selection process has become increasingly important and complex due to recent technological developments that have led to increased diversity in the available options which offer a wide variety of capabilities. The multi-criteria decision making method is one of the techniques recently developed which takes into account all the criteria involved in the decision making process. The Ghods Town WWTP in the west of Tehran located in the vicinity of residential areas has given rise to claims by citizens due to the odors emitted by the sludge sand drying bed, which justifies the replacement of the present sludge dewatering system. For this purpose, the multi-criteria decision making method based on the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method was used to identify the optimal sludge dewatering system appropriate for the WWTP under consideration. Furthermore, weighting of the subjective (social, environmental, and administrative criteria was accomplished using the analytical hierarchy process and the objective (i.e., economic criteria were weighted using the entropy concept. In this method, the triangular fuzzy membership function was also used to take into account the uncertainty associated with each of the decision making parameters. Based on the results obtained, the belt filter press dewatering system and the filter press were identified as the preferred solutions.

  9. Evaluating Options for Disposal of Low-Level Waste at LANL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hargis, K.M.; French, S.B.; Boyance, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) generates a wide range of waste types, including solid low-level radioactive waste (LLW), in conducting its national security mission and other science and technology activities. Although most of LANL's LLW has been disposed on-site, limitations on expansion, stakeholder concerns, and the potential for significant volumes from environmental remediation and decontamination and demolition (D and D) have led LANL to evaluate the feasibility of increasing off-site disposal. It appears that most of the LLW generated at LANL would meet the Waste Acceptance Criteria at the Nevada Test Site or available commercial LLW disposal sites. Some waste is considered to be problematic to transport to off-site disposal even though it could meet the off-site Waste Acceptance Criteria. Cost estimates for off-site disposal are being evaluated for comparison to estimated costs under the current plans for continued on-site disposal. An evaluation of risks associated with both on-site and off-site disposal will also be conducted. (authors)

  10. A real options model to assess the role of flexibility in forestry and agroforestry adoption and disadoption in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to restore the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley’s forests have not achieved desired levels of ecosystem services production.We examined how the variability of returns and the flexibility to change or postpone decisions (option value) affects the economic potential of forestry and agroforestry systems to keep private land in production while still providing...

  11. a Real-Time GIS Platform for High Sour Gas Leakage Simulation, Evaluation and Visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Liu, H.; Yang, C.

    2015-07-01

    The development of high-sulfur gas fields, also known as sour gas field, is faced with a series of safety control and emergency management problems. The GIS-based emergency response system is placed high expectations under the consideration of high pressure, high content, complex terrain and highly density population in Sichuan Basin, southwest China. The most researches on high hydrogen sulphide gas dispersion simulation and evaluation are used for environmental impact assessment (EIA) or emergency preparedness planning. This paper introduces a real-time GIS platform for high-sulfur gas emergency response. Combining with real-time data from the leak detection systems and the meteorological monitoring stations, GIS platform provides the functions of simulating, evaluating and displaying of the different spatial-temporal toxic gas distribution patterns and evaluation results. This paper firstly proposes the architecture of Emergency Response/Management System, secondly explains EPA's Gaussian dispersion model CALPUFF simulation workflow under high complex terrain and real-time data, thirdly explains the emergency workflow and spatial analysis functions of computing the accident influencing areas, population and the optimal evacuation routes. Finally, a well blow scenarios is used for verify the system. The study shows that GIS platform which integrates the real-time data and CALPUFF models will be one of the essential operational platforms for high-sulfur gas fields emergency management.

  12. Variation in information use in the evaluation of the social acceptability of nuclear waste management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, P.T.

    1991-01-01

    This article considers how technical information is used in forming judgements about such complex technological phenomena as nuclear waste management. Public understanding and acceptance of innovations is also considered, particularly where health and safety issues are involved. Education of the public is not a total solution. Many problems include political, social or ethical aspects which impinge on how they are judged by non-scientists. In addition, the vested interests of various parties must be weighed. A field-based experiment is described which is designed to illustrate the difference between ''normal'' and ''normative'' evaluation procedures used by both technically experienced and lay participants. (UK)

  13. Pest risk assessment of Monilinia fructicola for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The EFSA Panel on Plant Health has delivered a pest risk assessment on the risk posed by Monilinia fructicola to the EU territory and has identified risk management options and evaluated their effectiveness in reducing the risk to plant health posed by this organism. The Panel has also analysed...... the effectiveness of the special requirements presently listed in Annex IV, Part A, Section I of Council Directive 2000/29/EC, in reducing the risk of introduction of this pest into the EU territory. The Panel concluded that the main pathways for entry into the EU territory are plant material for propagation...... of the risk assessment area. Cultural practices and control measures currently applied and competition with other Monilinia species cannot prevent the establishment of M. fructicola. The probability of spread is very likely because of the multiple ways of dispersal of the pest. The overall impact...

  14. 32 CFR 644.168 - Exercise of options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Exercise of options. 644.168 Section 644.168... ESTATE HANDBOOK Acquisition Procurement of Options Prior to Real Estate Directives (military) § 644.168 Exercise of options. Upon issuance of a real estate directive for acquisition of the optioned real property...

  15. Evaluation of options for disposition of dispersible material in B-Cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokarz, R.D.; Defferding, L.J.; Adickes, M.D.; Keene, K.E.; Pilger, J.P.; Alzheimer, J.M.; Paxton, M.M.

    1993-10-01

    The radioactive contaminants in the dispersible material in B-cell of the 324 Building Radiochemical Energy (RE) hot-cell complex at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington exceed the allowable level. In 1986, there was a spill of 1.3 million curies of concentrated cesium and strontium in B-cell. Cleanup is required, and candidate technologies for cleaning up or otherwise addressing problems associated with the dispersible material are being evaluated by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). The RE hot-cell complex in 324 Building was constructed in the late 1950s. From the early 1960s until today the complex has been the site of numerous research, development, and demonstration programs using radioactive and hazardous materials. In mid-FY 1988, a program to clean B-cell was initiated. At present, dispersible material has been collected from 45% of the cell floor area, and 64% of the equipment and support racks have been removed from the cell. The evaluation of decontamination procedures are described

  16. Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options With Validated Analysis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weitzel, E.; Hoeschele, M.

    2014-09-01

    A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. A full distribution system developed in TRNSYS has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. This study builds upon previous analysis modelling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. Of the configurations evaluated, distribution losses account for 13-29% of the total water heating energy use and water use efficiency ranges from 11-22%. The base case, an uninsulated trunk and branch system sees the most improvement in energy consumption by insulating and locating the water heater central to all fixtures. Demand recirculation systems are not projected to provide significant energy savings and in some cases increase energy consumption. Water use is most efficient with demand recirculation systems, followed by the insulated trunk and branch system with a central water heater. Compact plumbing practices and insulation have the most impact on energy consumption (2-6% for insulation and 3-4% per 10 gallons of enclosed volume reduced). The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.

  17. An Evaluation System for University–Industry Partnership Sustainability: Enhancing Options for Entrepreneurial Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artūras Kaklauskas

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of university–industry partnership sustainability (UIPS stands for well-adjusted progress among key players from universities and industry by sustaining their welfare, both in the present and in the future. This paper sought to develop an evaluation system for UIPS. The need for such a system is justified at three levels: the micro level (i.e., research and innovation performance, transfer and absorptive capability, and technology development, the meso level (i.e., institutional arrangements, communication networks, and local and indigenous rules and the macro level (i.e., supply and demand, regulations, financing, taxes, culture, traditions, market, climate, politics, demographics, and technology. The UIPS evaluation system developed in this study offers the possibility of calculating a fair value of UIPS and providing recommendations for improving university–industry (U–I partnerships. This can be of great importance for entrepreneurial universities that would like to strengthen their corporate links and/or reduce/reverse the “hollowing effect” of globalisation in disadvantaged regions. Additionally, this paper also contains discussions on the advantages, limitations, and managerial implications of this proposal.

  18. The residuals analysis project: Evaluating disposal options for treated mixed low-level waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, R.D.; Gruebel, M.M.; Case, J.T.; Letourneau, M.J.

    1997-01-01

    For almost four years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through its Federal Facility Compliance Act Disposal Workgroup has been working with state regulators and governors' offices to develop an acceptable configuration for disposal of its mixed low-level waste (MLLW). These interactions have resulted in screening the universe of potential disposal sites from 49 to 15 and conducting ''performance evaluations'' for those fifteen sites to estimate their technical capabilities for disposal of MLLW. In the residuals analysis project, we estimated the volume of DOE's MLLW that will require disposal after treatment and the concentrations of radionuclides in the treated waste. We then compared the radionuclide concentrations with the disposal limits determined in the performance evaluation project for each of the fifteen sites. The results are a scoping-level estimate of the required volumetric capacity for MLLW disposal and the identification of waste streams that may pose problems for disposal based on current treatment plans. The analysis provides technical information for continued discussions between the DOE and affected States about disposal of MLLW and systematic input to waste treatment developers on disposal issues

  19. Evaluation of surface water treatment and discharge options for the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goyette, M.L.; MacDonell, M.M.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE), under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program, is responsible for conducting response actions at the Weldon Spring site in St. Charles County, Missouri. The site consists of two noncontiguous areas: (1) the chemical plant area, which includes four raffinate pits and two small ponds, and (2) a 3.6-ha (9-acre) quarry located about 6.4 km (4 mi) southwest of the chemical plant area. Both of these areas became chemically and radioactively contaminated as a result of processing and disposal activities that took place from the 1940s through 1960s. The Weldon Spring site, located about 48 km (30 mi) west of St. Louis, is listed on the National Priorities List of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Nitroaromatic explosives were processed by the Army at the chemical plant area during the 1940s, and radioactive materials were processed by DOE's predecessor agency (the Atomic Energy Commission) during the 1950s and 1960s. Overall remediation of the Weldon Spring site is being addressed through the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project, and it consists of several components. One component is the management of radioactively and chemically contaminated surface water impoundments at the chemical plant area -- i.e., the four raffinate pits, Frog Pond, and Ash Pond which was addressed under a separate action and documented in an engineering evaluation/cost analysis report. This report discusses the evaluation of surface water treatment at the Weldon Spring site

  20. Performance Evaluation of a Synthetic Aperture Real-Time Ultrasound System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stuart, Matthias Bo; Tomov, Borislav Gueorguiev; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2011-01-01

    This paper evaluates the signal-to-noise ratio, the time stability, and the phase difference of the sampling in the experimental ultrasound scanner SARUS: A synthetic aperture, real-time ultrasound system. SARUS has 1024 independent transmit and receive channels and is capable of handling 2D probes...... arrays (FPGAs) making it very flexible and allowing implementation of other real-time ultrasound processing methods in the future. For conventional B-mode imaging, a penetration depth around 7 cm for a 7 MHz transducer is obtained (signal-tonoise ratio of 0 dB), which is comparable to commercial...... for 3D ultrasound imaging. It samples at 12 bits per sample and has a sampling rate of 70 MHz with the possibility of decimating the sampling frequency at the input. SARUS is capable of advanced real-time computations such as synthetic aperture imaging. The system is built using fieldprogrammable gate...

  1. Research on Control Method Based on Real-Time Operational Reliability Evaluation for Space Manipulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yifan Wang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A control method based on real-time operational reliability evaluation for space manipulator is presented for improving the success rate of a manipulator during the execution of a task. In this paper, a method for quantitative analysis of operational reliability is given when manipulator is executing a specified task; then a control model which could control the quantitative operational reliability is built. First, the control process is described by using a state space equation. Second, process parameters are estimated in real time using Bayesian method. Third, the expression of the system's real-time operational reliability is deduced based on the state space equation and process parameters which are estimated using Bayesian method. Finally, a control variable regulation strategy which considers the cost of control is given based on the Theory of Statistical Process Control. It is shown via simulations that this method effectively improves the operational reliability of space manipulator control system.

  2. Ground truth evaluation of computer vision based 3D reconstruction of synthesized and real plant images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael; Andersen, Hans Jørgen; Slaughter, David

    2007-01-01

    and finds the optimal hardware and light source setup before investing in expensive equipment and field experiments. It was expected to be a valuable tool to structure the otherwise incomprehensibly large information space and to see relationships between parameter configurations and crop features. Images...... of real plants with similar structural categories were annotated manually for comparison in order to validate the performance results on the synthesised images. The results showed substantial correlation between synthesized and real plants, but only when all error sources were accounted...... for in the simulation. However, there were exceptions where there were structural differences between the virtual plant and the real plant that were unaccounted for by its category. The test framework was evaluated to be a valuable tool to uncover information from complex data structures....

  3. Performance evaluation of the Champagne source reconstruction algorithm on simulated and real M/EEG data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Julia P; Wipf, David P; Attias, Hagai T; Sekihara, Kensuke; Nagarajan, Srikantan S

    2012-03-01

    In this paper, we present an extensive performance evaluation of a novel source localization algorithm, Champagne. It is derived in an empirical Bayesian framework that yields sparse solutions to the inverse problem. It is robust to correlated sources and learns the statistics of non-stimulus-evoked activity to suppress the effect of noise and interfering brain activity. We tested Champagne on both simulated and real M/EEG data. The source locations used for the simulated data were chosen to test the performance on challenging source configurations. In simulations, we found that Champagne outperforms the benchmark algorithms in terms of both the accuracy of the source localizations and the correct estimation of source time courses. We also demonstrate that Champagne is more robust to correlated brain activity present in real MEG data and is able to resolve many distinct and functionally relevant brain areas with real MEG and EEG data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Smartphone apps for cardiopulmonary resuscitation training and real incident support: a mixed-methods evaluation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalz, Marco; Lenssen, Niklas; Felzen, Marc; Rossaint, Rolf; Tabuenca, Bernardo; Specht, Marcus; Skorning, Max

    2014-03-19

    No systematic evaluation of smartphone/mobile apps for resuscitation training and real incident support is available to date. To provide medical, usability, and additional quality criteria for the development of apps, we conducted a mixed-methods sequential evaluation combining the perspective of medical experts and end-users. The study aims to assess the quality of current mobile apps for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training and real incident support from expert as well as end-user perspective. Two independent medical experts evaluated the medical content of CPR apps from the Google Play store and the Apple App store. The evaluation was based on pre-defined minimum medical content requirements according to current Basic Life Support (BLS) guidelines. In a second phase, non-medical end-users tested usability and appeal of the apps that had at least met the minimum requirements. Usability was assessed with the System Usability Scale (SUS); appeal was measured with the self-developed ReactionDeck toolkit. Out of 61 apps, 46 were included in the experts' evaluation. A consolidated list of 13 apps resulted for the following layperson evaluation. The interrater reliability was substantial (kappa=.61). Layperson end-users (n=14) had a high interrater reliability (intraclass correlation 1 [ICC1]=.83, Ptraining and real incident support are available, very few are designed according to current BLS guidelines and offer an acceptable level of usability and hedonic quality for laypersons. The results of this study are intended to optimize the development of CPR mobile apps. The app ranking supports the informed selection of mobile apps for training situations and CPR campaigns as well as for real incident support.

  5. Evaluations of the new LiF-scintillator and optional brightness enhancement films for neutron imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iikura, H., E-mail: Iikura.hiroshi@jaea.go.jp [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki (Japan); Tsutsui, N. [Chichibu Fuji Co., Ltd., Ogano, Chichibu, Saitama 368-0193 (Japan); Nakamura, T.; Katagiri, M.; Kureta, M. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki (Japan); Kubo, J. [Nissan Motor Co., Ltd., Atsugi, Kanagawa 243-0126 (Japan); Matsubayashi, M. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata-shirane, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2011-09-21

    Japan Atomic Energy Agency has developed the neutron scintillator jointly with Chichibu Fuji Co., Ltd. In this study, we evaluated the new ZnS(Ag):Al/{sup 6}Li scintillator developed for neutron imaging. It was confirmed that the brightness increased by about double while maintaining equal performance for the spatial resolution as compared with a conventional scintillator. High frame-rate imaging using a high-speed video camera system and this new scintillator made it possible to image beyond 10 000 frames per second while still having enough brightness. This technique allowed us to obtain a high-frame-rate visualization of oil flow in a running car engine. Furthermore, we devised a technique to increase the light intensity of reception for a camera by adding brightness enhancement films on the output surface of the scintillator. It was confirmed that the spatial resolution degraded more than double, but the brightness increased by about three times.

  6. Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options with Validated Analysis Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weitzel, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Hoeschele, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States)

    2014-09-01

    A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. Transient System Simulation Tool (TRNSYS) is a full distribution system developed that has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. In this study, the Building America team built upon previous analysis modeling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall, 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.

  7. Economic evaluation of CO2 respone options in the forestry sector: the case of Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wangwacharakul, V.; Bowonwiwat, R.

    1995-01-01

    Using the benefit-cost analysis approach, this paper attempts to evaluate the potential of the forestry sector in Thailand to reduce carbon emissions of the country. Protecting conserved forests can avoid a substantial amount of carbon emission from deforestation, although certain costs are attached. Reforestation also enhances carbon sequestration and, in most cases, incurs no cost to society. Under the present government's commitment to fully protect the conserved forests and reforest the deforested areas in the country, Thailand could reduce the growth of carbon emission by as much as 260 million tons over the next two decades. The costs to society, if any, would be small given other, non-quantifiable, benefits of the forests. (Author)

  8. Evaluation of optional fee structures for solid waste management in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yun-Ga; Chu, Zhu-Jie; Zhuang, Jun

    2018-06-01

    A municipal solid waste fee has become an important means for the implementation of the waste management rendered by the government all around the world. Based on the ecological environmental compensation theory, this article constructs an analytical framework of waste charging from the perspective of public policy evaluation, to carry on the comprehensive comparison and analysis to the operability, feasibility, validity, rationality, and universality of the two modes of waste charging: Ration charge and unit-pricing modes. The results indicate that in the cities with large amounts of waste production, long time of waste charging, and high disposal rate, pilot projects should be carried out; and the government needs to improve the construction of associated laws and regulations.

  9. Treatment option evaluation for liquid effluent secondary streams on the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holter, G.M.; Triplett, M.B.; Fow, C.L.; White, M.K.

    1988-08-01

    This study, conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC), examines the range of secondary waste types and volumes likely to result from treatment of contaminated liquid effluents. Alternatives for treatment of these effluents were considered, taking into account the implementation of the ''best-available technology'' as assumed in current and ongoing engineering studies for treating the various liquid effluent waste streams. These treatment alternatives, and potential variations in the operating schedules for Hanford Site facilities generating contaminated liquid effluents, were evaluated to project an estimated range for the volume of each of the various secondary waste streams that are likely to be generated. The conclusions and recommendations were developed, based on these estimates. 23 refs., 34 figs., 16 tabs

  10. Sustainability of arsenic mitigation interventions – an evaluation of different alternative safe drinking water options provided in Matlab, an arsenic hot spot in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MOHAMMED eHOSSAIN

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The wide spread occurrence of geogenic arsenic (As in Bangladesh groundwater drastically reduced the safe water access across the country. Since its discovery in 1993, different mitigation options tested at household and community scale have resulted in limited success. In an arsenic hotspot of southeastern Bangladesh, 841 arsenic removal filter (ARF, 190 surface water filter membrane, 23 pond sand filter (PSF, 147 rain water harvester (RWH and 59 As-safe tubewell were distributed among the severely exposed population by AsMat, a Sida supported project. After three-four years of providing these safe water options, this study was carried out during 2010-2011 for performance analysis of these options, in terms of technical viability and effectiveness and thus to evaluate the preference of different options to the end users. Household and community based surveys were done to make an assessment of the current water use pattern as impact of the distributed options, overall condition of the options provided and to identify the reasons why these options are in use and/or abandoned. In total, 284 households were surveyed and information was collected for 23 PSF, 147 RWH and 59 tubewells. None of the filters was found in use. Among other options distributed, 13% of PSF, 40% RWH and 93% of tubewell were found functioning. In all cases, tubewells were found As-safe. About 89% of households are currently using tubewell water which was 58% before. Filter was abandoned for high cost and complicated maintenance. The use of RWH and PSF was not found user friendly and ensuring year round water quality is a big challenge. Arsenic-safe tubewell was found as a widely accepted option mainly because of its easy operation and availability of water, good water quality and negligible maintenance. This study validated tubewell as the most feasible option and holds significance for planning water supply projects, improving mitigation policy as well as developing awareness

  11. Evaluation of environmental impacts arising from uranium extraction in Lagoa Real Bahia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Suzicleide L.; Thibes, Ronaldo; Campos, Simara S., E-mail: suzilopes@ig.com.br, E-mail: thibes@uesb.edu.br, E-mail: simaracampos@gmail.com [Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia (UESB), Itapetinga, BA (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Since the beginnings of the industrial era, there has been an increasing use of fossil fuels, causing a rising of about 30% in the level of carbon dioxide concentrations and, consequently, elevating the global temperature. In the present days, we witness a huge worldwide concern about the generation of energy without emitting polluting gases responsible for the global warming, the so called clean energy. In this way, nuclear energy has reemerged as an important efficient means for generating domestic and industrial energy without producing the toxic greenhouse effect gases. Brazil is one of the current highest economic developing countries, with various internal sectors demanding more and more new technologies and energy consumption. Although traditionally Brazil has lain mainly on hydric resources, nuclear energy appears as real option in the current scenario. In the present work we analyse uranium extraction and processing in the Brazilian Region of Lagoa Real Bahia. In the recent literature, there has appeared some localized works, analyzing environmental impacts arising from the uranium extraction in that region. Based on data collection and analysis of soil, water and teeth, these works represent a first effort in the environmental impacts issue. Building upon published technical results we aim at a global understanding of the problem. Considering such different data sets, we look for global answers relating general aspects of the uranium extraction in the region. We present a comparative study, stressing connections and pointing ou different aspects of the common environmental issue. (author)

  12. Evaluation of environmental impacts arising from uranium extraction in Lagoa Real Bahia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Suzicleide L.; Thibes, Ronaldo; Campos, Simara S.

    2013-01-01

    Since the beginnings of the industrial era, there has been an increasing use of fossil fuels, causing a rising of about 30% in the level of carbon dioxide concentrations and, consequently, elevating the global temperature. In the present days, we witness a huge worldwide concern about the generation of energy without emitting polluting gases responsible for the global warming, the so called clean energy. In this way, nuclear energy has reemerged as an important efficient means for generating domestic and industrial energy without producing the toxic greenhouse effect gases. Brazil is one of the current highest economic developing countries, with various internal sectors demanding more and more new technologies and energy consumption. Although traditionally Brazil has lain mainly on hydric resources, nuclear energy appears as real option in the current scenario. In the present work we analyse uranium extraction and processing in the Brazilian Region of Lagoa Real Bahia. In the recent literature, there has appeared some localized works, analyzing environmental impacts arising from the uranium extraction in that region. Based on data collection and analysis of soil, water and teeth, these works represent a first effort in the environmental impacts issue. Building upon published technical results we aim at a global understanding of the problem. Considering such different data sets, we look for global answers relating general aspects of the uranium extraction in the region. We present a comparative study, stressing connections and pointing ou different aspects of the common environmental issue. (author)

  13. Real-time functional MR imaging (fMRI) for presurgical evaluation of paediatric epilepsy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kesavadas, Chandrasekharan; Thomas, Bejoy; Kumar Gupta, Arun [Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Department of Imaging Sciences and Interventional Radiology, Trivandrum (India); Sujesh, Sreedharan [Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Biomedical Technology Wing, Trivandrum (India); Ashalata, Radhakrishnan; Radhakrishnan, Kurupath [Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Department of Neurology, Trivandrum (India); Abraham, Mathew [Sree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and Technology, Department of Neurosurgery, Trivandrum (India)

    2007-10-15

    The role of fMRI in the presurgical evaluation of children with intractable epilepsy is being increasingly recognized. Real-time fMRI allows the clinician to visualize functional brain activation in real time. Since there is no off-line data analysis as in conventional fMRI, the overall time for the procedure is reduced, making it clinically feasible in a busy clinical sitting. (1) To study the accuracy of real-time fMRI in comparison to conventional fMRI with off-line processing; (2) to determine its effectiveness in mapping the eloquent cortex and language lateralization in comparison to invasive procedures such as intraoperative cortical stimulation and Wada testing; and (3) to evaluate the role of fMRI in presurgical decision making in children with epilepsy. A total of 23 patients (age range 6-18 years) underwent fMRI with sensorimotor, visual and language paradigms. Data processing was done in real time using in-line BOLD. The results of real-time fMRI matched those of off-line processing done using the well-accepted standard technique of statistical parametric mapping (SPM) in all the initial ten patients in whom the two techniques were compared. Coregistration of the fMRI data on a 3-D FLAIR sequence rather than a T1-weighted image gave better information regarding the relationship of the lesion to the area of activation. The results of intraoperative cortical stimulation and fMRI matched in six out of six patients, while the Wada test and fMRI had similar results in four out of five patients in whom these techniques were performed. In the majority of patients in this series the technique influenced patient management. Real-time fMRI is an easily performed and reliable technique in the presurgical workup of children with epilepsy. (orig.)

  14. Real-time functional MR imaging (fMRI) for presurgical evaluation of paediatric epilepsy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kesavadas, Chandrasekharan; Thomas, Bejoy; Kumar Gupta, Arun; Sujesh, Sreedharan; Ashalata, Radhakrishnan; Radhakrishnan, Kurupath; Abraham, Mathew

    2007-01-01

    The role of fMRI in the presurgical evaluation of children with intractable epilepsy is being increasingly recognized. Real-time fMRI allows the clinician to visualize functional brain activation in real time. Since there is no off-line data analysis as in conventional fMRI, the overall time for the procedure is reduced, making it clinically feasible in a busy clinical sitting. (1) To study the accuracy of real-time fMRI in comparison to conventional fMRI with off-line processing; (2) to determine its effectiveness in mapping the eloquent cortex and language lateralization in comparison to invasive procedures such as intraoperative cortical stimulation and Wada testing; and (3) to evaluate the role of fMRI in presurgical decision making in children with epilepsy. A total of 23 patients (age range 6-18 years) underwent fMRI with sensorimotor, visual and language paradigms. Data processing was done in real time using in-line BOLD. The results of real-time fMRI matched those of off-line processing done using the well-accepted standard technique of statistical parametric mapping (SPM) in all the initial ten patients in whom the two techniques were compared. Coregistration of the fMRI data on a 3-D FLAIR sequence rather than a T1-weighted image gave better information regarding the relationship of the lesion to the area of activation. The results of intraoperative cortical stimulation and fMRI matched in six out of six patients, while the Wada test and fMRI had similar results in four out of five patients in whom these techniques were performed. In the majority of patients in this series the technique influenced patient management. Real-time fMRI is an easily performed and reliable technique in the presurgical workup of children with epilepsy. (orig.)

  15. A Study on the Safety Evaluation of Real-Time Operating System in Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyung Tae; Jeong, Choong Heui; Kim, Dail Il

    2008-01-01

    Along with the digitalisation of the nuclear Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system, Real-Time Operating System (RTOS) is being widely used. The RTOS used in nuclear I and C system should satisfy strict performance requirements and resolve various technical issues under complicated conditions. In this regard a careful safety evaluation of RTOS is important for the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this study is to provide a guideline for safety evaluation of RTOS appropriate to the nuclear I and C system. In this paper, we suggest evaluation approach for the RTOS

  16. A Study on the Safety Evaluation of Real-Time Operating System in Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyung Tae; Jeong, Choong Heui; Kim, Dail Il [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-10-15

    Along with the digitalisation of the nuclear Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system, Real-Time Operating System (RTOS) is being widely used. The RTOS used in nuclear I and C system should satisfy strict performance requirements and resolve various technical issues under complicated conditions. In this regard a careful safety evaluation of RTOS is important for the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The objective of this study is to provide a guideline for safety evaluation of RTOS appropriate to the nuclear I and C system. In this paper, we suggest evaluation approach for the RTOS.

  17. Evaluating and planning the radioactive waste options for dismantling the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rule, K.; Scott, J.; Larson, S. [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., NJ (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    The Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) is a one-of-a kind tritium fusion research reactor, and is planned to be decommissioned within the next several years. This is the largest fusion reactor in the world and as a result of deuterium-tritum reactions is tritium contaminated and activated from 14 Mev neutrons. This presents many unusual challenges when dismantling, packaging and disposing its components and ancillary systems. Special containers are being designed to accommodate the vacuum vessel, neutral beams, and tritium delivery and processing systems. A team of experienced professionals performed a detailed field study to evaluate the requirements and appropriate methods for packaging the radioactive materials. This team focused on several current and innovative methods for waste minimization that provides the oppurtunmost cost effective manner to package and dispose of the waste. This study also produces a functional time-phased schedule which conjoins the waste volume, weight, costs and container requirements with the detailed project activity schedule for the entire project scope. This study and project will be the first demonstration of the decommissioning of a tritium fusion test reactor. The radioactive waste disposal aspects of this project are instrumental in demonstrating the viability of a fusion power reactor with regard to its environmental impact and ultimate success.

  18. Performance evaluation of an integrated solar water heater as an option for building energy conservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dharuman, C.; Arakeri, J.H.; Srinivasan, K. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalaore (India). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2006-03-15

    Since a majority of residential and industrial building hot water needs are around 50 {sup o}C, an integrated solar water heater could provide a bulk source that blends collection and storage into one unit. This paper describes the design, construction and performance test results of one such water-heating device. The test unit has an absorber area of 1.3 m{sup 2} and can hold 170 l of water, of which extractable volume per day is 100 l. Its performance was evaluated under various typical operating conditions. Every morning at about 7:00 a.m., 100 l of hot water were drawn from the sump and replaced with cold water from the mains. Although, during most of the days, the peak temperatures of water obtained are between 50 and 60 {sup o}C, the next morning temperatures were lower at 45-50 {sup o}C. Daytime collection efficiencies of about 60% and overall efficiencies of about 40% were obtained. Tests were conducted with and without stratification. Night radiation losses were reduced by use of a screen insulation. (author)

  19. Evaluation of real-time digital pulse shapers with various HPGe and silicon radiation detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menaa, N.; D'Agostino, P.; Zakrzewski, B.; Jordanov, V.T.

    2011-01-01

    Real-time digital pulse shaping techniques allow synthesis of pulse shapes that have been difficult to realize using the traditional analog methods. Using real-time digital shapers, triangular/trapezoidal filters can be synthesized in real time. These filters exhibit digital control on the rise time, fall time, and flat-top of the trapezoidal shape. Thus, the trapezoidal shape can be adjusted for optimum performance at different distributions of the series and parallel noise. The trapezoidal weighting function (WF) represents the optimum time-limited pulse shape when only parallel and series noises are present in the detector system. In the presence of 1/F noise, the optimum WF changes depending on the 1/F noise contribution. In this paper, we report on the results of the evaluation of new filter types for processing signals from CANBERRA high purity germanium (HPGe) and passivated, implanted, planar silicon (PIPS) detectors. The objective of the evaluation is to determine improvements in performance over the current trapezoidal (digital) filter. The evaluation is performed using a customized CANBERRA digital signal processing unit that is fitted with new FPGA designs and any required firmware modifications to support operation of the new filters. The evaluated filters include the Cusp, one-over-F (1/F), and pseudo-Gaussian filters. The results are compared with the CANBERRA trapezoidal shaper.

  20. Declassification, an actual operating materials management option in Cofrentes; La descalsificacion, una opcion operativa real de gestion de materiales en C. N. Cofrentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Diego compadre, J. L. de; Lopez Alvarez, L.; Analya Lazaro, M.

    2014-07-01

    Methods and procedures developed for declassification feature a series of methodological options and innovative technology, including the systematic use of the spatial random variable named index of Residual activity, level specific factors for declassification determined empirically for each unit of characterization and contrasts of hypothesis not parametric which are used in the demonstration of compliance of the levels of declassification Decision rules authorized by the CSN. (Author)

  1. Evaluation of two real time PCR assays for the detection of bacterial DNA in amniotic fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girón de Velasco-Sada, Patricia; Falces-Romero, Iker; Quiles-Melero, Inmaculada; García-Perea, Adela; Mingorance, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate two non-commercial Real-Time PCR assays for the detection of microorganisms in amniotic fluid followed by identification by pyrosequencing. We collected 126 amniotic fluids from 2010 to 2015 for the evaluation of two Real-Time PCR assays for detection of bacterial DNA in amniotic fluid (16S Universal PCR and Ureaplasma spp. specific PCR). The method was developed in the Department of Microbiology of the University Hospital La Paz. Thirty-seven samples (29.3%) were positive by PCR/pyrosequencing and/or culture, 4 of them were mixed cultures with Ureaplasma urealyticum. The Universal 16S Real-Time PCR was compared with the standard culture (81.8% sensitivity, 97.4% specificity, 75% positive predictive value, 98% negative predictive value). The Ureaplasma spp. specific Real-Time PCR was compared with the Ureaplasma/Mycoplasma specific culture (92.3% sensitivity, 89.4% specificity, 50% positive predictive value, 99% negative predictive value) with statistically significant difference (p=0.005). Ureaplasma spp. PCR shows a rapid response time (5h from DNA extraction until pyrosequencing) when comparing with culture (48h). So, the response time of bacteriological diagnosis in suspected chorioamnionitis is reduced. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  3. Evaluation of the clinical performance of the Abbott RealTime High-Risk HPV for carcinogenic HPV detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halfon, Philippe; Benmoura, Dominique; Agostini, Aubert; Khiri, Hacene; Penaranda, Guillaume; Martineau, Agnes; Blanc, Bernard

    2010-08-01

    Abbott RealTime (RT) High-Risk (HR) HPV assay is a new qualitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based assay for the detection of 14 HR HPV DNA. The assay can differentiate between the infection by HPV 16, HPV 18 and non-HPV 16/18 types through the distinct fluorescent labels on the type specific probes. To evaluate the clinical performance of the Abbott RT HR HPV test, in comparison with biopsy, Hybrid Capture II (HCII), and Linear Array (LA), for detection of high-grade disease (CIN2+). The study population consisted of 143 women who were included in three referral gynecology clinics in Marseilles (France) between March 2007 and June 2008. The clinical performance of the RT HR HPV assay, performed on the fully automated m2000 system, was compared with HCII and LA. HR HPV positivity rate was similar for all tests (Abbott RT HR HPV and HCII, 62%, and LA 63%). All tests had high sensitivities and negative predictive values for CIN2+ detection (>90%). The agreement between HCII and Abbott RT HR HPV, and between HCII and LA were 93% (k=0.85) and 96% (k=0.91) respectively. As expected, HPV16 or HPV18 positivity was greater in advanced grades of disease, especially in CIN2+ patients: 85% in CIN2+ vs. 33% in Abbott RT HR HPV assay is good and closely correlated with the two other assays. The automation and ability to identify type 16 and 18 make this a very attractive option for HPV testing in laboratories and potentially provides improved patient management. Copyright 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Evaluation of design options for improving the energy efficiency of an environmentally safe domestic refrigerator-freezer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vineyard, E.A.; Sand, J.R. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Bohman, R.H.

    1995-03-01

    In order to reduce greenhouse emissions from power plants and respond to regulatory actions arising from the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA), several design options were investigated for improving the energy efficiency of a conventionally designed, domestic refrigerator-freezer. The options, such as improved cabinet insulation and high-efficiency compressor and fans, were incorporated into a prototype refrigerator-freezer cabinet and refrigeration system to produce a unit that is superior from an environmental viewpoint due to its lower energy consumption and the use of refrigerant HFC-134a as a replacement for CFC-12. Baseline energy performance of the original 1993 production refrigerator-freezer, along with cabinet heat load and compressor calorimeter test results, were extensively documented to provide a firm basis for experimentally measured energy savings. A detailed refrigerator system computer model was used to evaluate the energy savings for several design modifications that, collectively, could achieve a targeted energy consumption of 1.00 kWh/d for a 20 ft{sup 3} (570 l) top-mount, automatic-defrost, refrigerator-freezer. The energy consumption goal represents a 50% reduction in the 1993 NAECA standard for units of this size. Following the modeling simulation, laboratory prototypes were fabricated and tested to experimentally verify the analytical results and aid in improving the model in those areas where discrepancies occurred. While the 1.00 kWh/d goal was not achieved with the modifications, a substantial energy efficiency improvement of 22% (1.41 kWh/d) was demonstrated using near-term technologies. It is noted that each improvement exacts a penalty in terms of increased cost or system complexity/reliability. Further work on this project will analyze cost-effectiveness of the design changes and investigate alternative, more-elaborate, refrigeration system changes to further reduce energy consumption.

  5. New optional IVC filter for percutaneous retrieval - in vitro evaluation of embolus capturing efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guenther, R.W.; Mossdorf, A.; Pfeffer, J.; Buecker, A.; Neuerburg, J.; Hoej, A.R.; Moelgaard-Nielsen, A.; Schmitz-Rode, T.

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: In-vitro evaluation of a new caval filter (Cook Celect Filter) developed for delayed percutaneous retrieval in comparison to the Guenther Tulip filter. Materials and Methods: The new Celect filter is constructed on the basis of the Tulip filter and consists of 4 primary anchoring legs and additional 8 thinner secondary wires to stabilize the filter and to guarantee adequate filtering efficiency. The filtering wires are of the same amount and equal distribution as the filtering wires of the Tulip filter. The secondary wires are arranged in such a way that percutaneous filter retrieval should be possible even if the wires are incorporated into the caval wall. In a flow model (tube size diameter 15-, diameter 22- and diameter 30 mm), the filter was exposed to single and multiple emboli (blood clots) of different sizes (3 x 5, 3 x 10, 5 x 10, 3 x 20, 5 x 20, 7 x 10, 7 x 20 to 10 x 24 mm) to analyse the embolus capturing efficiency under different conditions including eccentric and concentric, horizontal and vertical positions in comparison to the Tulip filter. All testing was carried out in SPSS analytic software; statistical significance was assumed for p-values <0.05. Results: The in-vitro embolus capturing efficiency of the Celect filter proved to be equivalent to the Tulip filter. In the single-embolus test, 91.6% of the clots were captured by the Celect filter and 87.2% by the Tulip filter (p=0.042). Large clots ranging from 7 x 10 to 10 x 24 mm were captured in all cases, whereas the capture rates for the 3 x 5-mm and 3 x 10-mm clots were lower. The filters captured significantly more clots in the concentric than in the eccentric location. There was no significant difference between the overall capture rates of the two filters in the multi-clot test (72.2% vs. 75.1%), which showed deterioration of filter function during multiple clot exposure. With the 15-mm tube, the Celect filter had a significantly higher capture rate than the Tulip filter, whereas it

  6. Evaluation of the real parts of fermion and boson propagators using dispersion relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, K.T.R.; Davies, R.W.

    1991-01-01

    General methods are developed for efficiently evaluating principal-value integrals containing fermion and boson causal propagators. These methods are particularly applicable to integrals containing step functions which appear in the zero temperature limit of infinite nuclear matter. Examples are given for the Green functions that occur in the solution of Dyson's equations, with the inclusion of nucleon-delta-mesonic interactions. It is shown how to discretize in order to evaluate numerically the real parts of the propagators. If the real and purely imaginary self-energies of a propagator obey a dispersion relation, then the propagator itself satisfies such a relation. Finally, we discuss the two types of resonances occurring in the pion Green function. (orig.)

  7. Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Kim, Jung-Wk

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO 2 -eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO 2 -eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO 2 -eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO 2 -eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

  8. Comparison through a LCA evaluation analysis of food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung, E-mail: mhkim9@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung-Wk, E-mail: kimjw@snu.ac.kr [Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Sillim-Dong, Gwanak-Gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-09-01

    This study evaluated feed manufacturing including dry feeding and wet feeding, composting, and landfilling for food waste disposal options from the perspective of global warming and resource recovery. The method of the expanded system boundaries was employed in order to compare different by-products. The whole stages of disposal involved in the systems such as separate discharge, collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal, were included in the system boundary and evaluated. The Global Warming Potential generated from 1 tonne of food wastes for each disposal system was analyzed by the life cycle assessment method. The results showed that 200 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq could be produced from dry feeding process, 61 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from wet feeding process, 123 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from composting process, and 1010 kg of CO{sub 2}-eq from landfilling. Feed manufacturing and composting, the common treatment methods currently employed, have been known to be environment friendlier than other methods. However, this study shows that they can negatively affect the environment if their by-products are not appropriately utilized as intended.

  9. Evaluation of the Abbott Real Time HCV genotype II assay for Hepatitis C virus genotyping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sariguzel, Fatma Mutlu; Berk, Elife; Gokahmetoglu, Selma; Ercal, Baris Derya; Celik, Ilhami

    2015-01-01

    The determination of HCV genotypes and subtypes is very important for the selection of antiviral therapy and epidemiological studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Abbott Real Time HCV Genotype II assay in HCV genotyping of HCV infected patients in Kayseri, Turkey. One hundred patients with chronic hepatitis C admitted to our hospital were evaluated between June 2012 and December 2012, HCV RNA levels were determined by the COBAS® AmpliPrep/COBAS® TaqMan® 48 HCV test. HCV genotyping was investigated by the Abbott Real Time HCV Genotype II assay. With the exception of genotype 1, subtypes of HCV genotypes could not be determined by Abbott assay. Sequencing analysis was used as the reference method. Genotypes 1, 2, 3 and 4 were observed in 70, 4, 2 and 24 of the 100 patients, respectively, by two methods. The concordance between the two systems to determine HCV major genotypes was 100%. Of 70 patients with genotype 1, 66 showed infection with subtype 1b and 4 with subtype 1a by Abbott Real Time HCV Genotype II assay. Using sequence analysis, 61 showed infection with subtype 1b and 9 with subtype 1a. In determining of HCV genotype 1 subtypes, the difference between the two methods was not statistically significant (P>0.05). HCV genotype 4 and 3 samples were found to be subtype 4d and 3a, respectively, by sequence analysis. There were four patients with genotype 2. Sequence analysis revealed that two of these patients had type 2a and the other two had type 2b. The Abbott Real Time HCV Genotype II assay yielded results consistent with sequence analysis. However, further optimization of the Abbott Real Time HCV Genotype II assay for subtype identification of HCV is required.

  10. Evaluation of HVDC interconnection models for considering its impact in real-time voltage stability assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez, Angel; Jóhannsson, Hjörtur; Lund, P.

    2015-01-01

    An approach to evaluate the HVDC interconnectionsmodels to be used in real-time voltage stability assessment is proposed.The existing models for the HVDC interconnections, thatare based on voltage source converter, were studied selecting theones that are suitable for its application in Thevenin...... equivalent ´methods for voltage stability assessment. The proposed methodis to evaluate the validity of the models by using synthetizedPMU measurements from simulations and from PMUs connectedto the danish system. Wide-area measurements are used toestimate the HVDC model parameters which are needed...

  11. EVALUATION OF POLLUTION PREVENTION OPTIONS TO REDUCE STYRENE EMISSIONS FROM FIBER-REINFORCED PLASTIC OPEN MOLDING PROCESSES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollution prevention (P2) options to reduce styrene emissions, such as new materials, and application equipment, are commercially available to the operators of open molding processes. However, information is lacking on the emissions reduction that these options can achieve. To me...

  12. A CAD-CAM prosthodontic option and gingival zenith position for a rotated maxillary right central incisor: An evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukesh Singhal

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: Digital imaging provides an immediate treatment option for the patients. Software also provides an interim aid, for the clinician as well as technician, in the form of two-dimensional photographs. CAD-CAM is entirely a helping instrument against the conservative prosthetic options and gingival zenith position for a rotated central incisor. It helps in patient education and in motivation.

  13. Evaluation of a first mine real time diesel particulate matter (DPM) monitor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart Gillies; Hsin Wei Wu [Gillies Wu Mining Technology (Australia)

    2008-04-15

    The objective of the study was to develop, test and prove up under mine conditions a Diesel Particulate Matter (DPM) real time atmospheric monitoring unit. The design for the new instrument, termed the D-PDM, is based on the recently developed real time respirable dust PDM. The project's main activities were to undertake through internationally recognised laboratory testing an evaluation of the new design and to undertake a comprehensive underground series of tests to establish the robustness and reliability of the new approach. The phases of design, the international laboratory testing and the underground mine evaluation in five operating mines proved that the monitor is capable in normal mine atmospheres of accurately measuring DPM levels in real time. The monitor has successfully reported data when used as a static or stationary instrument, when placed within the cab of a moving vehicle and when worn on a person's belt. The outcomes of the project provide the industry access to an enhanced tool for understanding the presence of DPM in the mine atmosphere.

  14. COMPARISON OF CR MAMMOGRAPHY, SONOMAMMOGRAPHY AND REAL-TIME ELASTOGRAPHY IN EVALUATING BREAST LESIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onteddu Joji Reddy

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths in women worldwide. As early detection can decrease the deaths due to breast cancer, high sensitive and specific tests are necessary to evaluate breast lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS 80 patients with complaint of pain or lump in the breast or nipple discharge were evaluated by mammography, sonomammography and real-time elastography. Imaging studies were compared with the FNAC/biopsy of lesions. RESULTS Mammography has sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV as 80%, 95.5%, 93.3%, 86%, respectively. Sonomammography has sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV as 74.2%, 91%, 86%, 82%, respectively. Real-time elastography has sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV as 91.4%, 94.4%, 94.1%, 91.8%, respectively. Combined mammography and sonomammography has sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV as 82.8%, 93.3%, 90.6%, 87.5%, respectively. Combined sonomammography and elastography has sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV as 91.4%, 97.2%, 96.96%, 92.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Combination of CR mammography, sonomammography and real-time elastography has high diagnostic sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of benign and malignant breast masses obviating the use of higher modalities like MRI, CAD and digital tomosynthesis, which is very useful in resource poor countries like India.

  15. Large-scale machine learning and evaluation platform for real-time traffic surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichel, Justin A.; Mishra, Akshaya; Miller, Nicholas; Jankovic, Nicholas; Thomas, Mohan A.; Abbott, Tyler; Swanson, Douglas; Keller, Joel

    2016-09-01

    In traffic engineering, vehicle detectors are trained on limited datasets, resulting in poor accuracy when deployed in real-world surveillance applications. Annotating large-scale high-quality datasets is challenging. Typically, these datasets have limited diversity; they do not reflect the real-world operating environment. There is a need for a large-scale, cloud-based positive and negative mining process and a large-scale learning and evaluation system for the application of automatic traffic measurements and classification. The proposed positive and negative mining process addresses the quality of crowd sourced ground truth data through machine learning review and human feedback mechanisms. The proposed learning and evaluation system uses a distributed cloud computing framework to handle data-scaling issues associated with large numbers of samples and a high-dimensional feature space. The system is trained using AdaBoost on 1,000,000 Haar-like features extracted from 70,000 annotated video frames. The trained real-time vehicle detector achieves an accuracy of at least 95% for 1/2 and about 78% for 19/20 of the time when tested on ˜7,500,000 video frames. At the end of 2016, the dataset is expected to have over 1 billion annotated video frames.

  16. Expensing options solves nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlman, William A

    2002-12-01

    The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

  17. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  18. Real-time threat evaluation in a ground based air defence environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JN Roux

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In a military environment a ground based air defence operator is required to evaluate the tactical situation in real-time and protect Defended Assets (DAs on the ground against aerial threats by assigning available Weapon Systems (WSs to engage enemy aircraft. Since this aerial environment requires rapid operational planning and decision making in stress situations, the associated responsibilities are typically divided between a number of operators and computerized systems that aid these operators during the decision making processes. One such a Decision Support System (DSS, a threat evaluation and weapon assignment system, assigns threat values to aircraft (with respect to DAs in real-time and uses these values to propose possible engagements of observed enemy aircraft by anti-aircraft WSs. In this paper a design of the threat evaluation part of such a DSS is put forward. The design follows the structured approach suggested in [Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2, pp. 151-187], phasing in a suite of increasingly complex qualitative and quantitative model components as more (reliable data become available.

  19. Budget Options

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...

  20. Identifying and Evaluating Options for Improving Sediment Management and Fish Passage at Hydropower Dams in the Lower Mekong River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, T. B.; Reed, P. M.; Loucks, D. P.

    2015-12-01

    The Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia is undergoing intensive and pervasive hydropower development to satisfy demand for increased energy and income to support its growing population of 60 million people. Just 20 years ago this river flowed freely. Today some 30 large dams exist in the basin, and over 100 more are being planned for construction. These dams will alter the river's natural water, sediment and nutrient flows, thereby impacting river morphology and ecosystems, and will fragment fish migration pathways. In doing so, they will degrade one of the world's most valuable and productive freshwater fish habitats. For those dams that have not yet been constructed, there still exist opportunities to modify their siting, design and operation (SDO) to potentially achieve a more balanced set of tradeoffs among hydropower production, sediment/nutrient passage and fish passage. We introduce examples of such alternative SDO opportunities for Sambor Dam in Cambodia, planned to be constructed on the main stem of the Mekong River. To evaluate the performance of such alternatives, we developed a Python-based simulation tool called PySedSim. PySedSim is a daily time step mass balance model that identifies the relative tradeoffs among hydropower production, and flow and sediment regime alteration, associated with reservoir sediment management techniques such as flushing, sluicing, bypassing, density current venting and dredging. To date, there has been a very limited acknowledgement or evaluation of the significant uncertainties that impact the evaluation of SDO alternatives. This research is formalizing a model diagnostic assessment of the key assumptions and parametric uncertainties that strongly influence PySedSim SDO evaluations. Using stochastic hydrology and sediment load data, our diagnostic assessment evaluates and compares several Sambor Dam alternatives using several performance measures related to energy production, sediment trapping and regime alteration, and

  1. A platform for development and evaluation of real - time wind energy conversion strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toccaceli, G; Cendoya, M; Battaiotto, P

    2005-01-01

    Wind energy is one of the most promising power generation alternatives, and one of the most dynamic scenarios for novel control strategies. The particular characteristics of each geographical zone, and the inherent randomness of the wind impose important constrains for the evaluation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS). This is particularly true for wind turbines and their associated instrumentation. A wind turbine emulator (WTE) can be used to help in the evaluation of hardware-software alternatives, avoiding difficult field tests by recreating real environments on a controlled testbed. It consists of an electrical machine driven by a solid-state converter. WTEs are controlled to provide a desired dynamic Torque-Speed characteristic, equivalent to a real wind turbine under prescribed external conditions. The control system provides a desired torque value as a function of wind and turbine shaft speeds. This work presents the hardware / software development of a WECS emulator to be used in analysis and design of Real-Time control strategies for different types of electric generators. The proposed system is composed by a wind turbine emulator connected to an AC generator. The Wind Turbine Emulator consists of a direct current (DC) motor that is driven by a four-quadrant DC/DC converter or chopper. It is made of a MOSFET H-Bridge, with a current control loop. The generator block consists of an asynchronous AC machine, driven by static converters tailored to particular applications (autonomous or grid-connected WECS).With the objective to have a versatile system, the control of WTE and WECS generator is carried out by a Pentium PC equipped with an I/O multifunction acquisition board. It generates reference values for the current control loop driving the chopper and measures the shaft rotation speed using an incremental optical encoder. Software for the PC is developed in MatLab/Simulink, using Real Time WorkShop (RTW) and Real Time Windows Target (RTWT). This

  2. Evaluating health worker performance in Benin using the simulated client method with real children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Alexander K; Onikpo, Faustin; Lama, Marcel; Deming, Michael S

    2012-10-08

    The simulated client (SC) method for evaluating health worker performance utilizes surveyors who pose as patients to make surreptitious observations during consultations. Compared to conspicuous observation (CO) by surveyors, which is commonly done in developing countries, SC data better reflect usual health worker practices. This information is important because CO can cause performance to be better than usual. Despite this advantage of SCs, the method's full potential has not been realized for evaluating performance for pediatric illnesses because real children have not been utilized as SCs. Previous SC studies used scenarios of ill children that were not actually brought to health workers. During a trial that evaluated a quality improvement intervention in Benin (the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness [IMCI] strategy), we conducted an SC survey with adult caretakers as surveyors and real children to evaluate the feasibility of this approach and used the results to assess the validity of CO. We conducted an SC survey and a CO survey (one right after the other) of health workers in the same 55 health facilities. A detailed description of the SC survey process was produced. Results of the two surveys were compared for 27 performance indicators using logistic regression modeling. SC and CO surveyors observed 54 and 185 consultations, respectively. No serious problems occurred during the SC survey. Performance levels measured by CO were moderately higher than those measured by SCs (median CO - SC difference = 16.4 percentage-points). Survey differences were sometimes much greater for IMCI-trained health workers (median difference = 29.7 percentage-points) than for workers without IMCI training (median difference = 3.1 percentage-points). SC surveys can be done safely with real children if appropriate precautions are taken. CO can introduce moderately large positive biases, and these biases might be greater for health workers exposed to quality improvement

  3. Evaluating health worker performance in Benin using the simulated client method with real children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rowe Alexander K

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The simulated client (SC method for evaluating health worker performance utilizes surveyors who pose as patients to make surreptitious observations during consultations. Compared to conspicuous observation (CO by surveyors, which is commonly done in developing countries, SC data better reflect usual health worker practices. This information is important because CO can cause performance to be better than usual. Despite this advantage of SCs, the method’s full potential has not been realized for evaluating performance for pediatric illnesses because real children have not been utilized as SCs. Previous SC studies used scenarios of ill children that were not actually brought to health workers. During a trial that evaluated a quality improvement intervention in Benin (the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness [IMCI] strategy, we conducted an SC survey with adult caretakers as surveyors and real children to evaluate the feasibility of this approach and used the results to assess the validity of CO. Methods We conducted an SC survey and a CO survey (one right after the other of health workers in the same 55 health facilities. A detailed description of the SC survey process was produced. Results of the two surveys were compared for 27 performance indicators using logistic regression modeling. Results SC and CO surveyors observed 54 and 185 consultations, respectively. No serious problems occurred during the SC survey. Performance levels measured by CO were moderately higher than those measured by SCs (median CO – SC difference = 16.4 percentage-points. Survey differences were sometimes much greater for IMCI-trained health workers (median difference = 29.7 percentage-points than for workers without IMCI training (median difference = 3.1 percentage-points. Conclusion SC surveys can be done safely with real children if appropriate precautions are taken. CO can introduce moderately large positive biases, and these biases might

  4. Performance Evaluation of the Real-Q Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Quantification Kit Using Two Real-Time PCR Systems for Quantifying CMV DNA in Whole Blood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong Eun; Kim, Ji Youn; Yun, Sun Ae; Lee, Myoung Keun; Huh, Hee Jae; Kim, Jong Won; Ki, Chang Seok

    2016-11-01

    Standardized cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA quantification is important for managing CMV disease. We evaluated the performance of the Real-Q CMV Quantification Kit (Real-Q assay; BioSewoom, Korea) using whole blood (WB), with nucleic acid extraction using MagNA Pure 96 (Roche Diagnostics, Germany). Real-time PCR was performed on two platforms: the 7500 Fast real-time PCR (7500 Fast; Applied Biosystems, USA) and CFX96 real-time PCR detection (CFX96; Bio-Rad, USA) systems. The WHO international standard, diluted with CMV-negative WB, was used to validate the analytical performance. We used 90 WB clinical samples for comparison with the artus CMV RG PCR kit (artus assay; Qiagen, Germany). Limits of detections (LODs) in 7500 Fast and CFX96 were 367 and 479 IU/mL, respectively. The assay was linear from the LOD to 10⁶ IU/mL (R² ≥0.9886). The conversion factors from copies to IU in 7500 Fast and CFX96 were 0.95 and 1.06, respectively. Compared with the artus assay, for values 1,000 copies/mL, 73.3% and 80.6% of samples in 7500 Fast and CFX96, respectively, had real-time PCR platforms.

  5. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...

  6. Development of real time visual evaluation system for sodium transient thermohydraulic experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanigawa, Shingo

    1990-01-01

    A real time visual evaluation system, the Liquid Metal Visual Evaluation System (LIVES), has been developed for the Plant Dynamics Test Loop facility at O-arai Engineering Center. This facility is designed to provide sodium transient thermohydraulic experimental data not only in a fuel subassembly but also in a plant wide system simulating abnormal or accident conditions in liquid metal fast breeder reactors. Since liquid metal sodium is invisible, measurements to obtain experimental data are mainly conducted by numerous thermo couples installed at various locations in the test sections and the facility. The transient thermohydraulic phenomena are a result of complicated interactions among global and local scale three-dimensional phenomena, and short- and long-time scale phenomena. It is, therefore, difficult to grasp intuitively thermohydraulic behaviors and to observe accurately both temperature distribution and flow condition solely by digital data or various types of analog data in evaluating the experimental results. For effectively conducting sodium transient experiments and for making it possible to observe exactly thermohydraulic phenomena, the real time visualization technique for transient thermohydraulics has been developed using the latest Engineering Work Station. The system makes it possible to observe and compare instantly the experiment and analytical results while experiment or analysis is in progress. The results are shown by not only the time trend curves but also the graphic animations. This paper shows an outline of the system and sample applications of the system. (author)

  7. Uncertainty evaluation of a regional real-time system for rain-induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas; Yatheendradas, Soni

    2015-04-01

    A new prototype regional model and evaluation framework has been developed over Central America and the Caribbean region using satellite-based information including precipitation estimates, modeled soil moisture, topography, soils, as well as regionally available datasets such as road networks and distance to fault zones. The algorithm framework incorporates three static variables: a susceptibility map; a 24-hr rainfall triggering threshold; and an antecedent soil moisture variable threshold, which have been calibrated using historic landslide events. The thresholds are regionally heterogeneous and are based on the percentile distribution of the rainfall or antecedent moisture time series. A simple decision tree algorithm framework integrates all three variables with the rainfall and soil moisture time series and generates a landslide nowcast in real-time based on the previous 24 hours over this region. This system has been evaluated using several available landslide inventories over the Central America and Caribbean region. Spatiotemporal uncertainty and evaluation metrics of the model are presented here based on available landslides reports. This work also presents a probabilistic representation of potential landslide activity over the region which can be used to further refine and improve the real-time landslide hazard assessment system as well as better identify and characterize the uncertainties inherent in this type of regional approach. The landslide algorithm provides a flexible framework to improve hazard estimation and reduce uncertainty at any spatial and temporal scale.

  8. Neural network evaluation of tokamak current profiles for real time control (abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wróblewski, Dariusz

    1997-01-01

    Active feedback control of the current profile, requiring real-time determination of the current profile parameters, is envisioned for tokamaks operating in enhanced confinement regimes. The distribution of toroidal current in a tokamak is now routinely evaluated based on external (magnetic probes, flux loops) and internal (motional Stark effect) measurements of the poloidal magnetic field. However, the analysis involves reconstruction of magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and is too intensive computationally to be performed in real time. In the present study, a neural network is used to provide a mapping from the magnetic measurements (internal and external) to selected parameters of the safety factor profile. The single-pass, feedforward calculation of output of a trained neural network is very fast, making this approach particularly suitable for real-time applications. The network was trained on a large set of simulated equilibrium data for the DIII-D tokamak. The database encompasses a large variety of current profiles including the hollow current profiles important for reversed central shear operation. The parameters of safety factor profile (a quantity related to the current profile through the magnetic field tilt angle) estimated by the neural network include central safety factor, q0, minimum value of q, qmin, and the location of qmin. Very good performance of the trained neural network both for simulated test data and for experimental data is demonstrated.

  9. Neural network evaluation of tokamak current profiles for real time control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wróblewski, Dariusz

    1997-02-01

    Active feedback control of the current profile, requiring real-time determination of the current profile parameters, is envisioned for tokamaks operating in enhanced confinement regimes. The distribution of toroidal current in a tokamak is now routinely evaluated based on external (magnetic probes, flux loops) and internal (motional Stark effect) measurements of the poloidal magnetic field. However, the analysis involves reconstruction of magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and is too intensive computationally to be performed in real time. In the present study, a neural network is used to provide a mapping from the magnetic measurements (internal and external) to selected parameters of the safety factor profile. The single-pass, feedforward calculation of output of a trained neural network is very fast, making this approach particularly suitable for real-time applications. The network was trained on a large set of simulated equilibrium data for the DIII-D tokamak. The database encompasses a large variety of current profiles including the hollow current profiles important for reversed central shear operation. The parameters of safety factor profile (a quantity related to the current profile through the magnetic field tilt angle) estimated by the neural network include central safety factor, q0, minimum value of q, qmin, and the location of qmin. Very good performance of the trained neural network both for simulated test data and for experimental datais demonstrated.

  10. A Real-time Evaluation Technique of Fatigue Damage in Adhesively Bonded Composite-Metal Joints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Oh Yang; Kim, Tae Hyun

    1999-01-01

    One of the problems for practical use of fiber-reinforced plastics is the performance degradation by fatigue damage in the joints. The study is to develop a nondestructive technique for real-time evaluation of adhesively bonded composite-metal joints. From the prior study we confirmed that the bonding strength can be estimated from the correlation between the qualify of bonded parts and AUP's. We obtained a curve showing the correlation between the degree of fatigue damage and AUP's calculated from signals acquired during fatigue loading of single-lap and double-lap joints of CFRP and Al6061. The curve is an analogy to the one showing stiffness reduction (E/Eo) of polymer matrix composites by fatigue damage. From those facts, it is plausible to predict the degree of fatigue damage in real-time. Amplitude and AUP2 appeared to be optimal parameters to provide more reliable results for single-lap joints whereas Amplitude and AUP2 did for double-lap joints. It is recommended to select optimal parameters for different geometries in the application for real structures

  11. A real time evaluation technique of fatigue damage in adhesively bonded composite metal joints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Tae Hyun; Kwon Oh Yang [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Inje Univesity, Kimhae (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-05-15

    One of the problems for practical use of fiber-reinforced composite material is performance degradation by fatigue damage in the joints. The study is to develope a nondestructive technique for real-time evaluation of adhesively bonded composite-metal joints. From the prior study we confirmed that the bonding strength can be estimated from the correlation between quality of bonded parts and AUP's. We obtained a curve showing the correlation between AUP's calculated from signals obtained from single-lap and double-lap joints and the degree of fatigue damage at bonding interface during fatigue test. The curve is an analogy to the one showing stiffness reduction(E/E{sub 0}) of polymer matrix composites by fatigue damage. From those facts, it is possible to predict degree of damage in real-time. Amplitude and AUP2 appeared to be optimal parameters to provide more reliable results for single-lap joint whereas amplitude and AUP1 did for double-lap joints. It is recommended to select optimal parameters for different geometries in the real structure.

  12. A Real-time Evaluation Technique of Fatigue Damage in Adhesively Bonded Composite-Metal Joints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Oh Yang; Kim, Tae Hyun [Inha University, Incheon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-12-15

    One of the problems for practical use of fiber-reinforced plastics is the performance degradation by fatigue damage in the joints. The study is to develop a nondestructive technique for real-time evaluation of adhesively bonded composite-metal joints. From the prior study we confirmed that the bonding strength can be estimated from the correlation between the qualify of bonded parts and AUP's. We obtained a curve showing the correlation between the degree of fatigue damage and AUP's calculated from signals acquired during fatigue loading of single-lap and double-lap joints of CFRP and Al6061. The curve is an analogy to the one showing stiffness reduction (E/Eo) of polymer matrix composites by fatigue damage. From those facts, it is plausible to predict the degree of fatigue damage in real-time. Amplitude and AUP2 appeared to be optimal parameters to provide more reliable results for single-lap joints whereas Amplitude and AUP2 did for double-lap joints. It is recommended to select optimal parameters for different geometries in the application for real structures

  13. A real time evaluation technique of fatigue damage in adhesively bonded composite metal joints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Hyun; Kwon Oh Yang

    1999-01-01

    One of the problems for practical use of fiber-reinforced composite material is performance degradation by fatigue damage in the joints. The study is to develope a nondestructive technique for real-time evaluation of adhesively bonded composite-metal joints. From the prior study we confirmed that the bonding strength can be estimated from the correlation between quality of bonded parts and AUP's. We obtained a curve showing the correlation between AUP's calculated from signals obtained from single-lap and double-lap joints and the degree of fatigue damage at bonding interface during fatigue test. The curve is an analogy to the one showing stiffness reduction(E/E 0 ) of polymer matrix composites by fatigue damage. From those facts, it is possible to predict degree of damage in real-time. Amplitude and AUP2 appeared to be optimal parameters to provide more reliable results for single-lap joint whereas amplitude and AUP1 did for double-lap joints. It is recommended to select optimal parameters for different geometries in the real structure.

  14. Evaluation of Environmental Impact of Biodiesel Vehicles in Real Traffic Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, Susumu; Mizushima, Norifumi [National Traffic Safety and Environment Laboratory (NTSEL) (Japan); Saito, Akira; Takada, Yutaka [Organization for the Promotion of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVO)(Japan

    2012-01-15

    This report focuses on the comparison of the real-world emissions between the case of using diesel oil and BDF (biodiesel fuel) for fuel. For this purpose, the on-road driving tests were made, by applying BDF, with the latest diesel vehicles complying with the latest emission regulations while avoiding any particular modification to them. For measurement, a PEMS (Portable Emission Measurement System) was used. Note that the heavy diesel vehicles complying with the latest emission gas regulations of Japan also meet the heavy vehicle fuel economy regulations introduced by Japan ahead of other countries of the world. Since application of BDF presents problems not only for the emission gas, but also has non-negligible influence on the fuel economy, the survey was also made for the real-world fuel economy. This report has been produced as the final version deliverable from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) Advanced Motor Fuels (AMF) Implementing Agreement (Annex XXXVIII - Evaluation of Environmental Impact of Biodiesel Vehicle in Real Traffic Conditions).

  15. Neural network evaluation of tokamak current profiles for real time control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wroblewski, D.

    1997-01-01

    Active feedback control of the current profile, requiring real-time determination of the current profile parameters, is envisioned for tokamaks operating in enhanced confinement regimes. The distribution of toroidal current in a tokamak is now routinely evaluated based on external (magnetic probes, flux loops) and internal (motional Stark effect) measurements of the poloidal magnetic field. However, the analysis involves reconstruction of magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and is too intensive computationally to be performed in real time. In the present study, a neural network is used to provide a mapping from the magnetic measurements (internal and external) to selected parameters of the safety factor profile. The single-pass, feedforward calculation of output of a trained neural network is very fast, making this approach particularly suitable for real-time applications. The network was trained on a large set of simulated equilibrium data for the DIII-D tokamak. The database encompasses a large variety of current profiles including the hollow current profiles important for reversed central shear operation. The parameters of safety factor profile (a quantity related to the current profile through the magnetic field tilt angle) estimated by the neural network include central safety factor, q 0 , minimum value of q, q min , and the location of q min . Very good performance of the trained neural network both for simulated test data and for experimental datais demonstrated. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  16. Neural network evaluation of tokamak current profiles for real time control (abstract)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wroblewski, D.

    1997-01-01

    Active feedback control of the current profile, requiring real-time determination of the current profile parameters, is envisioned for tokamaks operating in enhanced confinement regimes. The distribution of toroidal current in a tokamak is now routinely evaluated based on external (magnetic probes, flux loops) and internal (motional Stark effect) measurements of the poloidal magnetic field. However, the analysis involves reconstruction of magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium and is too intensive computationally to be performed in real time. In the present study, a neural network is used to provide a mapping from the magnetic measurements (internal and external) to selected parameters of the safety factor profile. The single-pass, feedforward calculation of output of a trained neural network is very fast, making this approach particularly suitable for real-time applications. The network was trained on a large set of simulated equilibrium data for the DIII-D tokamak. The database encompasses a large variety of current profiles including the hollow current profiles important for reversed central shear operation. The parameters of safety factor profile (a quantity related to the current profile through the magnetic field tilt angle) estimated by the neural network include central safety factor, q 0 , minimum value of q, q min , and the location of q min . Very good performance of the trained neural network both for simulated test data and for experimental data is demonstrated. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  17. Evaluation of the global orbit correction algorithm for the APS real-time orbit feedback system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carwardine, J.; Evans, K. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    The APS real-time orbit feedback system uses 38 correctors per plane and has available up to 320 rf beam position monitors. Orbit correction is implemented using multiple digital signal processors. Singular value decomposition is used to generate a correction matrix from a linear response matrix model of the storage ring lattice. This paper evaluates the performance of the APS system in terms of its ability to correct localized and distributed sources of orbit motion. The impact of regulator gain and bandwidth, choice of beam position monitors, and corrector dynamics are discussed. The weighted least-squares algorithm is reviewed in the context of local feedback

  18. Comprehensive evaluation of attitude and orbit estimation using real earth magnetic field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutschmann, Julie; Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack

    1997-01-01

    A single, augmented extended Kalman filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft attitude and orbit was developed and tested with simulated and real magnetometer and rate data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is accurately known, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft's orbit, are a function of orbit and attitude errors. These differences can be used to estimate the orbit and attitude. The test results of the EKF with magnetometer and gyro data from three NASA satellites are presented and evaluated.

  19. Diaphragmatic paralysis evaluated by phrenic nerve stimulation during fluoroscopy or real-time ultrasound

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCauley, R.G.K.; Labib, K.B.

    1984-10-01

    Stimulation of the phrenic nerve by supplying an electrical impulse to the neck during fluoroscopy or real-time ultrasound (sonoscopy) of the diaphragm allows more precise functional evaluation than fluoroscopy and/or sonoscopy alone. This is especially true of patients who are unable to cooperate because the are on a ventilator, unconscious, or very young. The authors cite cases in which diaphragmatic paralysis was diagnosed by conventional methods but stimulation of the phrenic nerve demonstrated good diaphragmatic motion, leading to a change in prognosis in some cases and a change in therapy in others.

  20. Diaphragmatic paralysis evaluated by phrenic nerve stimulation during fluoroscopy or real-time ultrasound

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCauley, R.G.K.; Labib, K.B.

    1984-01-01

    Stimulation of the phrenic nerve by supplying an electrical impulse to the neck during fluoroscopy or real-time ultrasound (sonoscopy) of the diaphragm allows more precise functional evaluation than fluoroscopy and/or sonoscopy alone. This is especially true of patients who are unable to cooperate because the are on a ventilator, unconscious, or very young. The authors cite cases in which diaphragmatic paralysis was diagnosed by conventional methods but stimulation of the phrenic nerve demonstrated good diaphragmatic motion, leading to a change in prognosis in some cases and a change in therapy in others

  1. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    2011-06-24

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model\\'s weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local- and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the β factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as β the factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world\\'s 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Evaluation of MYBPC3 trans-Splicing and Gene Replacement as Therapeutic Options in Human iPSC-Derived Cardiomyocytes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maksymilian Prondzynski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Gene therapy is a promising option for severe forms of genetic diseases. We previously provided evidence for the feasibility of trans-splicing, exon skipping, and gene replacement in a mouse model of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM carrying a mutation in MYBPC3, encoding cardiac myosin-binding protein C (cMyBP-C. Here we used human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs from an HCM patient carrying a heterozygous c.1358-1359insC MYBPC3 mutation and from a healthy donor. HCM hiPSC-CMs exhibited ∼50% lower MYBPC3 mRNA and cMyBP-C protein levels than control, no truncated cMyBP-C, larger cell size, and altered gene expression, thus reproducing human HCM features. We evaluated RNA trans-splicing and gene replacement after transducing hiPSC-CMs with adeno-associated virus. trans-splicing with 5′ or 3′ pre-trans-splicing molecules represented ∼1% of total MYBPC3 transcripts in healthy hiPSC-CMs. In contrast, gene replacement with the full-length MYBPC3 cDNA resulted in ∼2.5-fold higher MYBPC3 mRNA levels in HCM and control hiPSC-CMs. This restored the cMyBP-C level to 81% of the control level, suppressed hypertrophy, and partially restored gene expression to control level in HCM cells. This study provides evidence for (1 the feasibility of trans-splicing, although with low efficiency, and (2 efficient gene replacement in hiPSC-CMs with a MYBPC3 mutation.

  3. Evaluating performance of MARTe as a real-time framework for feed-back control system at tokamak device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Sangwon; Lee, Woongryol; Lee, Taegu; Park, Mikyung; Lee, Sangil [National Fusion Research Institute (NFRI), Gwahangno 169-148, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of); Neto, André C. [Associação EURATOM/IST, Instituto de Plasmas e Fusão Nuclear, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, P-1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Wallander, Anders [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon sur Verdon, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France); Kim, Young-Kuk, E-mail: ykim@cnu.ac.kr [Chungnam National University, Daejeon 305-764 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: •We measured the performance of MARTe by measuring response time and jitter. •We compared the performance of application with and without MARTe. •We compared the performance of MARTe application on different O/Ss. -- Abstract: The Korea Super conducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) is performing the task of “Demonstration and Evaluation of ITER CODAC Technologies at KSTAR” whose objective is the evaluation of real-time technologies for decision making on real-time operating systems (RTOS), real-time frameworks and 10 GbE networks. In this task, the Multi-threaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) has been evaluated as a real-time framework for real-time feedback control system. The performance of MARTe has been verified by measuring response time and jitter in a path of feedback control from an analog input of a monitoring system to an analog output of an actuator system. In addition, the evaluation has been performed in terms of applicability of MARTe and its performance depending on types of operating system and tuning of CPU affinity and priority. This paper describes the overview of MARTe as a real-time framework, the results of evaluation performance and its implementation.

  4. Evaluating performance of MARTe as a real-time framework for feed-back control system at tokamak device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Sangwon; Lee, Woongryol; Lee, Taegu; Park, Mikyung; Lee, Sangil; Neto, André C.; Wallander, Anders; Kim, Young-Kuk

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: •We measured the performance of MARTe by measuring response time and jitter. •We compared the performance of application with and without MARTe. •We compared the performance of MARTe application on different O/Ss. -- Abstract: The Korea Super conducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) is performing the task of “Demonstration and Evaluation of ITER CODAC Technologies at KSTAR” whose objective is the evaluation of real-time technologies for decision making on real-time operating systems (RTOS), real-time frameworks and 10 GbE networks. In this task, the Multi-threaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) has been evaluated as a real-time framework for real-time feedback control system. The performance of MARTe has been verified by measuring response time and jitter in a path of feedback control from an analog input of a monitoring system to an analog output of an actuator system. In addition, the evaluation has been performed in terms of applicability of MARTe and its performance depending on types of operating system and tuning of CPU affinity and priority. This paper describes the overview of MARTe as a real-time framework, the results of evaluation performance and its implementation

  5. Vulvar and vaginal atrophy in postmenopausal women: findings from the REVIVE (REal Women's VIews of Treatment Options for Menopausal Vaginal ChangEs) survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsberg, Sheryl A; Wysocki, Susan; Magnus, Leslie; Krychman, Michael L

    2013-07-01

    Vulvar and vaginal atrophy (VVA) is a chronic medical condition experienced by many postmenopausal women. Symptoms include dyspareunia (pain with intercourse), vaginal dryness, and irritation and may affect sexual activities, relationships, and activities of daily life. The aim of this study is to characterize postmenopausal women's experience with and perception of VVA symptoms, interactions with healthcare professionals (HCPs), and available treatment options. An online survey was conducted in the United States in women from KnowledgePanel(®) , a 56,000-member probability-selected Internet panel projectable to the overall US population. Altogether, 3,046 postmenopausal women with VVA symptoms (the largest US cohort of recent surveys) responded to questions about their knowledge of VVA, impact of symptoms on their activities, communication with HCPs, and use of available treatments. Percent is calculated as the ratio of response over total responding for each question for all and stratified participants. The most common VVA symptoms were dryness (55% of participants), dyspareunia (44%), and irritation (37%). VVA symptoms affected enjoyment of sex in 59% of participants. Additionally, interference with sleep, general enjoyment of life, and temperament were reported by 24%, 23%, and 23% of participants, respectively. Few women attributed symptoms to menopause (24%) or hormonal changes (12%). Of all participants, 56% had ever discussed VVA symptoms with an HCP and 40% currently used VVA-specific topical treatments (vaginal over-the-counter [OTC] products [29%] and vaginal prescription therapies [11%]). Of those who had discussed symptoms with an HCP, 62% used OTC products. Insufficient symptom relief and inconvenience were cited as major limitations of OTC products and concerns about side effects and cancer risk limited use of topical vaginal prescription therapies. VVA symptoms are common in postmenopausal women. Significant barriers to treatment include lack of

  6. Evaluation issues on real-time operating system in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Y. M.; Jeong, C. H.; Koh, J. S. [Regulatory Research Div., Korea Inst. of Nuclear Safety (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-07-01

    In the recent few years, using the hard real-time operating system (RTOS) of safety-critical applications has gained increased acceptance in the nuclear safety system. Failure of this software could cause catastrophic consequences for human life. The digital I and C systems of nuclear power plants also have used hard RTOSs which are executing a required mission completely within its deadline. Because the nuclear power plants have to maintain a very high level of safety, the hard RTOS software should be reliable and safe. The RTOS used in safety-critical I and C systems is the base software used for the purpose of satisfying the real-time constraints, So, careful evaluation of its safety and functionality is very important, So far, the nuclear power plants of Korea have adopted commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) RTOS software. But, these days the RTOS embedded in safety grade PLC has been developed by KNICS project controlled by Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy of Korea. Whether COTS RTOS or newly developed RTOS, it must be evaluated its safety and reliability. (authors)

  7. Evaluation issues on real-time operating system in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y. M.; Jeong, C. H.; Koh, J. S.

    2006-01-01

    In the recent few years, using the hard real-time operating system (RTOS) of safety-critical applications has gained increased acceptance in the nuclear safety system. Failure of this software could cause catastrophic consequences for human life. The digital I and C systems of nuclear power plants also have used hard RTOSs which are executing a required mission completely within its deadline. Because the nuclear power plants have to maintain a very high level of safety, the hard RTOS software should be reliable and safe. The RTOS used in safety-critical I and C systems is the base software used for the purpose of satisfying the real-time constraints, So, careful evaluation of its safety and functionality is very important, So far, the nuclear power plants of Korea have adopted commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) RTOS software. But, these days the RTOS embedded in safety grade PLC has been developed by KNICS project controlled by Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy of Korea. Whether COTS RTOS or newly developed RTOS, it must be evaluated its safety and reliability. (authors)

  8. Performance Evaluation of RIPng, EIGRPv6 and OSPFv3 for Real Time Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sama Salam Samaan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this modern Internet era and the transition to IPv6, routing protocols must adjust to assist this transformation. RIPng, EIGRPv6 and OSPFv3 are the dominant IPv6 IGRP (Interior Gateway Routing Protocols. Selecting the best routing protocol among the available is a critical task, which depends upon the network requirement and performance parameters of different real time applications. The primary motivation of this paper is to estimate the performance of these protocols in real time applications. The evaluation is based on a number of criteria including: network convergence duration, Http Page Response Time, DB Query Response Time, IPv6 traffic dropped, video packet delay variation and video packet end to end delay. After examining the simulation results, a conclusion will be extracted to reveal the findings of which protocol performs the best upon implementation within a IPv6 WAN. OPNET modeler simulator is used to evaluate the accomplishment of these protocols. To get the results, three scenarios are designed, one for each protocol.

  9. Radiological evaluation of a liver simulator in comparison to a human real liver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toledo, Janine M.; Campos, Tarcisio P.R. de

    2009-01-01

    The present study evaluates the radiological features of a human real healthy liver reproducing its characteristics on a developed liver simulator. The radiological evaluation will be performed through radiological methods such as CT and X-ray images, density and weight measurements, as well as representation of the coloration and texture. According to literature, the liver is the highest weight organ and gland of the body, weighing approximately 1,5 kg. On the liver, the nutrients are absorbed from the digestive tract and are prosecuted and stored for future use by other organs. Also the liver is responsible for the neutralization and elimination of various toxic substances. Thus, it is an interface between the digestive system and the blood. Besides, this organ is the principal source of plasmatic proteins like the albumin, transport of graxos oily acids. Due to its proprieties, the liver holds a large amount of radionuclides on any uptake from external source. The liver simulator was designed to have the same density, weight and corresponding shape. The radiographic image was produced by conventional X-rays machine, in which the radiographic applied parameters were the same applied to abdomen. The result of the radiographic and CT images demonstrates radiological equivalence between the simulator and human real liver. Hounsfield number of the synthetic liver tissue was found on the range of human livers. Therefore, due to its similar shape, chemical composition, radiological response, the liver simulator can be used to investigate ionizing radiation procedures during radiation therapy intervention. (author)

  10. Evaluation of work routines in PET/CT service with and individual tool in real time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, Maryana N.; Oliveira, Fernanda R. de; Fischer, Andreia C.F.S.; Bacelar, Alexandre

    2016-01-01

    This study used a direct monitoring system (RemoteDose) that presents the individual dose and dose rate measurements, plotted instantly, as a tool to evaluate work routines of Individuals Occupationally Exposed (IOE) of a PET/CT Service. With this evaluation was possible to identify the critical tasks performed by each work team (Pharmaceutical/Nursing/Radiology Technician team) for subsequent optimization of patient care processes. It was also possible to assess whether these tasks are properly distributed among this teams. The RemoteDose system proved to be able to assist the optimization of radiation protection of a PET/CT Service, proving to be an important ally of the Radiation Protection Supervisor in this process, since it allows the display of real-time monitoring. (author)

  11. A Formal Approach to Run-Time Evaluation of Real-Time Behaviour in Distributed Process Control Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, C.H.

    This thesis advocates a formal approach to run-time evaluation of real-time behaviour in distributed process sontrol systems, motivated by a growing interest in applying the increasingly popular formal methods in the application area of distributed process control systems. We propose to evaluate...... because the real-time aspects of distributed process control systems are considered to be among the hardest and most interesting to handle....

  12. A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Premovement Active Surveillance Protocol Options for the Managed Movement of Turkeys to Slaughter During an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd Weaver, J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Bonney, Peter J; Patyk, Kelly A; Bergeron, Justin G; Middleton, Jamie L; Alexander, Catherine Y; Goldsmith, Timothy J; Halvorson, David A

    2016-05-01

    Risk management decisions associated with live poultry movement during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak should be carefully considered. Live turkey movements may pose a risk for disease spread. On the other hand, interruptions in scheduled movements can disrupt business continuity. The Secure Turkey Supply (STS) Plan was developed through an industry-government-academic collaboration to address business continuity concerns that might arise during a HPAI outbreak. STS stakeholders proposed outbreak response measure options that were evaluated through risk assessment. The developed approach relies on 1) diagnostic testing of two pooled samples of swabs taken from dead turkeys immediately before movement via the influenza A matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) test; 2) enhanced biosecurity measures in combination with a premovement isolation period (PMIP), restricting movement onto the premises for a few days before movement to slaughter; and 3) incorporation of a distance factor from known infected flocks such that exposure via local area spread is unlikely. Daily exposure likelihood estimates from spatial kernels from past HPAI outbreaks were coupled with simulation models of disease spread and active surveillance to evaluate active surveillance protocol options that differ with respect to the number of swabs per pooled sample and the timing of the tests in relation to movement. Simulation model results indicate that active surveillance testing, in combination with strict biosecurity, substantially increased HPAI virus detection probability. When distance from a known infected flock was considered, the overall combined likelihood of moving an infected, undetected turkey flock to slaughter was predicted to be lower at 3 and 5 km. The analysis of different active surveillance protocol options is designed to incorporate flexibility into HPAI emergency response plans.

  13. Una aplicación de opciones reales a la valoración de contratos de leasing An application of real options to the assessment of leasing contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Andrea Arango Arango

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es el resultado de una investigación que desarrolla un modelo para la determinación del canon de arrendamiento en un contrato de leasing sobre vehículos, incluyendo la valoración de la opción de compra implícita en éste. Para realizar esta valoración se utilizaron como base los modelos propuestos por Giaccotto et al. [1] y Gamba y Rigon [2] (en tres marcas de vehículos en Colombia para el período comprendido entre Enero de 2004 y Diciembre de 2007. Se identificó el proceso ARMA de las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos. Se realizaron pruebas para identificar posibles efectos ARCH en las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos analizados. La estimación del valor de la opción de compra del vehículo al finalizar el contrato de leasing se realiza mediante la implementación del modelo de black-scholes y de simulación Monte Carlo.This article is the result of a research that develops a model related to the determination of the rent on a leasing vehicle contract and the valuation of the call option that gives the lessee the right but not the obligation to buy the used car at the end of the contract at a specified price. We used models proposed by [1] and by [2] in three brands of vehicles in Colombia for the period between January of 2004 and December of 2007. The analysis of the time series of returns of the prices vehicles displayed an ARMA process. We also developed further tests to identify possible ARCH effects in the series of returns of prices of the vehicles analyzed. The estimation of the value of the option to purchase the vehicle at the end of the leasing contract is done by the implementation of the model of Black Scholes and Montecarlo Simulation.

  14. Gender-typing of leadership: evaluations of real and ideal managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuadrado, Isabel; García-Ael, Cristina; Molero, Fernando

    2015-04-01

    This research focuses on female underrepresentation in managerial positions. Specifically, two studies examine gender-typing for managerial roles in Spain using ratings for real and ideal managers. In addition, we analyse the existence of same-gender bias on evaluations of the behavior of actual leaders. In the first study, 195 Spanish workers evaluate the extent to which gender-stereotypical traits are important for becoming a successful middle manager in three conditions (female managers, male managers, and managers in general). In the second study, we explore the degree to which the behavior of real Spanish managers is gender-typed and the existence of same-gender bias on leadership styles - transformational, transactional and avoidant/passive - and on leadership outcomes - effectiveness, extra effort and satisfaction - from the perspective of subordinates (N = 605). Overall, the results demonstrate that masculine characteristics were rated as more important than feminine characteristics for managerial positions, and they were more often assigned to male managers than to female managers. Unexpectedly, this manager-male association is stronger among female participants than among male participants. Our findings also demonstrate that women subordinates evaluate their same-sex supervisors more favorably in transformational leadership, effectiveness, and extra effort. The negative consequences derived from gender-typing managerial positions are highlighted according to the role congruity theory of prejudice toward female leaders. The positive effects of in-group female bias on behavior ratings are also noted. The mixed implications of these results for women's advancement to leadership positions are discussed. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Performance evaluation of an interactive teleradiology system for real-time teleconsultation in different network environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Ping; Gong Jun; Zhuang Jun; Sun Jianyong; Yang Yuanyuan; Zhang Jianguo; Meng Lili

    2004-01-01

    Objective: Measure the performance of self-developed Interoperable teleradiology system at various communication conditions. Methods: Through three different network media ( satellite network, Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Loop (ADSL), and Shanghai health system's private broadband WAN), Digital images in radiology were transmitted and experiments on teleradiology consultation were applied. Results such as transmission time were recorded, effects of real-time consultation were evaluated subjectively, and experimental data were analyzed. Results: In satellite network, time spent on the transmission of images is long and effects of consultation is normal; in broadband network, time spent is short and no delay is observed in interoperation. Conclusion: teleconsultation can be hold on image sets composed of small matrix size images and compressed large matrix size images in satellite narrowband network, optimum transmission bandwidth is 192 kbps; original large matrix size images such as CR can be transmitted through broadband network and be used in teleconsultation. Real-time interoperation of the system doesn't require very high bandwidth. It can be implemented at various communication conditions

  16. Evaluating real-time air-quality data as earthquake indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Yi-Tang; Huang, Jr-Chung; Tu, Jien-Yi; Engling, Guenter; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Lin, Fei-Jan; Huang, Chao-Hao

    2010-01-01

    A catastrophic earthquake, namely the 921-earthquake, occurred with a magnitude of M L = 7.3 in Taiwan on September 21, 1999, causing severe disaster. The evaluation of real-time air-quality data, obtained by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA), revealed a staggering increase in ambient SO 2 concentrations by more than one order of magnitude across the island several hours prior to the earthquake, particularly at background stations. The abrupt increase in SO 2 concentrations likely resulted from seismic-triggered degassing instead of air pollution. An additional case of a large earthquake (M L = 6.8), occurring on March 31, 2002, was examined to confirm our observations of significantly enhanced SO 2 concentrations in ambient air prior to large earthquakes. The coincidence between large earthquakes and increases in trace gases during the pre-quake period (several hours) indicates the potential of employing air-quality monitoring data to forecast catastrophic earthquakes.

  17. Real-Time Communications in Autonomic Networks: System Implementation and Performance Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Tselios

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the design and prototype implementation of a communication platform aiming to provide voice and video communication in a distributed networking environment. Performance considerations and network characteristics have also been taken into account in order to provide the set of properties dictated by the sensitive nature and the real-time characteristics of the targeted application scenarios. The proposed system has been evaluated both by experimental means as well as subjective tests taken by an extensive number of users. The results show that the proposed platform operates seamlessly in two hops, while in the four hops scenario, audio and video are delivered with marginal distortion. The conducted survey indicates that the user experience in terms of Quality of Service has obtained higher scores in the scenario with the two hops.

  18. Heterogeneous photocatalysis of real textile wastewater: evaluation of reaction kinetics and characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, Chittaranjan; Gupta, Ashok K; Pillai, Indu M Sasidharan

    2012-01-01

    Real textile wastewater collected from the cotton dyeing bath of a fabric dyeing and finishing plant was subjected to heterogeneous photocatalysis using Ag(+) doped TiO(2) under UV irradiation in a batch reactor. The photocatalysts were characterized by FESEM, XRD, EDS, FTIR, DRS and BET analyses. The kinetics of the reaction was also evaluated. Colour removal was more than 88%, 94% and 99%, respectively for undiluted, 2 times diluted and 5 times diluted wastewater with Ag(+) doped TiO(2) (2.5 g/L) after UV irradiation for 360 minutes. The COD removal for undiluted, 2 times diluted and 5 times diluted wastewater was 47%, 70% and 92%, respectively under similar conditions. The reaction followed Langmuir-Hinshelwood pseudo first order kinetic model and the data fitted well to polynomial regression analysis.

  19. Nondestructive evaluation of the preservation state of stone columns in the Hospital Real of Granada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno de Jong van Coevorden, C.; Cobos Sánchez, C.; Rubio Bretones, A.; Fernández Pantoja, M.; García, Salvador G.; Gómez Martín, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper describes the results of the employment of two nondestructive evaluation methods for the diagnostic of the preservation state of stone elements. The first method is based on ultrasonic (US) pulses while the second method uses short electromagnetic pulses. Specifically, these methods were applied to some columns, some of them previously restored. These columns are part of the architectonic heritage of the University of Granada, in particular they are located at the patio de la capilla del Hospital Real of Granada. The objective of this work was the application of systems based on US pulses (in transmission mode) and the ground-penetrating radar systems (electromagnetic tomography) in the diagnosis and detection of possible faults in the interior of columns.

  20. Accuracy evaluation of a new real-time continuous glucose monitoring algorithm in hypoglycemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmoudi, Zeinab; Jensen, Morten Hasselstrøm; Johansen, Mette Dencker

    2014-01-01

    UNLABELLED: Abstract Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of a new continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) calibration algorithm and to compare it with the Guardian(®) REAL-Time (RT) (Medtronic Diabetes, Northridge, CA) calibration algorithm in hypoglycemia. SUBJECTS...... AND METHODS: CGM data were obtained from 10 type 1 diabetes patients undergoing insulin-induced hypoglycemia. Data were obtained in two separate sessions using the Guardian RT CGM device. Data from the same CGM sensor were calibrated by two different algorithms: the Guardian RT algorithm and a new calibration...... algorithm. The accuracy of the two algorithms was compared using four performance metrics. RESULTS: The median (mean) of absolute relative deviation in the whole range of plasma glucose was 20.2% (32.1%) for the Guardian RT calibration and 17.4% (25.9%) for the new calibration algorithm. The mean (SD...

  1. Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Rajaratnam, B.

    2014-01-01

    Pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) have become an important framework for evaluating paleoclimate reconstruction methods. Most existing PPE studies assume constant proxy availability through time and uniform proxy quality across the pseudoproxy network. Real multiproxy networks are, however, marked by pronounced disparities in proxy quality, and a steep decline in proxy availability back in time, either of which may have large effects on reconstruction skill. A suite of PPEs constructed from a millennium-length general circulation model (GCM) simulation is thus designed to mimic these various real-world characteristics. The new pseudoproxy network is used to evaluate four climate field reconstruction (CFR) techniques: truncated total least squares embedded within the regularized EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm (RegEM-TTLS), the Mann et al. (2009) implementation of RegEM-TTLS (M09), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and Gaussian graphical models embedded within RegEM (GraphEM). Each method's risk properties are also assessed via a 100-member noise ensemble. Contrary to expectation, it is found that reconstruction skill does not vary monotonically with proxy availability, but also is a function of the type and amplitude of climate variability (forced events vs. internal variability). The use of realistic spatiotemporal pseudoproxy characteristics also exposes large inter-method differences. Despite the comparable fidelity in reconstructing the global mean temperature, spatial skill varies considerably between CFR techniques. Both GraphEM and CCA efficiently exploit teleconnections, and produce consistent reconstructions across the ensemble. RegEM-TTLS and M09 appear advantageous for reconstructions on highly noisy data, but are subject to larger stochastic variations across different realizations of pseudoproxy noise. Results collectively highlight the importance of designing realistic pseudoproxy networks and implementing multiple noise realizations of PPEs

  2. Energy exotic options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

  3. Clinical evaluation of β-tubulin real-time PCR for rapid diagnosis of dermatophytosis, a comparison with mycological methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motamedi, Marjan; Mirhendi, Hossein; Zomorodian, Kamiar; Khodadadi, Hossein; Kharazi, Mahboobeh; Ghasemi, Zeinab; Shidfar, Mohammad Reza; Makimura, Koichi

    2017-10-01

    Following our previous report on evaluation of the beta tubulin real-time PCR for detection of dermatophytosis, this study aimed to compare the real-time PCR assay with conventional methods for the clinical assessment of its diagnostic performance. Samples from a total of 853 patients with suspected dermatophyte lesions were subjected to direct examination (all samples), culture (499 samples) and real-time PCR (all samples). Fungal DNA was extracted directly from clinical samples using a conical steel bullet, followed by purification with a commercial kit and subjected to the Taq-Man probe-based real-time PCR. The study showed that among the 499 specimens for which all three methods were used, 156 (31.2%), 128 (25.6%) and 205 (41.0%) were found to be positive by direct microscopy, culture and real-time PCR respectively. Real-time PCR significantly increased the detection rate of dermatophytes compared with microscopy (288 vs 229) with 87% concordance between the two methods. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the real-time PCR was 87.5%, 85%, 66.5% and 95.2% respectively. Although real-time PCR performed better on skin than on nail samples, it should not yet fully replace conventional diagnosis. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  4. Public health economic evaluation of different European Union-level policy options aimed at reducing population dietary trans fat intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Saborido, Carlos; Mouratidou, Theodora; Livaniou, Anastasia; Caldeira, Sandra; Wollgast, Jan

    2016-11-01

    The adverse relation between dietary trans fatty acid (TFA) intake and coronary artery disease risk is well established. Many countries in the European Union (EU) and worldwide have implemented different policies to reduce the TFA intake of their populations. The aim of this study was to assess the added value of EU-level action by estimating the cost-effectiveness of 3 possible EU-level policy measures to reduce population dietary TFA intake. This was calculated against a reference situation of not implementing any EU-level policy (i.e., by assuming only national or self-regulatory measures). We developed a mathematical model to compare different policy options at the EU level: 1) to do nothing beyond the current state (reference situation), 2) to impose mandatory TFA labeling of prepackaged foods, 3) to seek voluntary agreements toward further reducing industrially produced TFA (iTFA) content in foods, and 4) to impose a legislative limit for iTFA content in foods. The model indicated that to impose an EU-level legal limit or to make voluntary agreements may, over the course of a lifetime (85 y), avoid the loss of 3.73 and 2.19 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), respectively, and save >51 and 23 billion euros when compared with the reference situation. Implementing mandatory TFA labeling can also avoid the loss of 0.98 million DALYs, but this option incurs more costs than it saves compared with the reference option. The model indicates that there is added value of an EU-level action, either via a legal limit or through voluntary agreements, with the legal limit option producing the highest additional health benefits. Introducing mandatory TFA labeling for the EU common market may provide some additional health benefits; however, this would likely not be a cost-effective strategy.

  5. Options Study - Phase II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Wigeland; T. Taiwo; M. Todosow; W. Halsey; J. Gehin

    2010-09-01

    The Options Study has been conducted for the purpose of evaluating the potential of alternative integrated nuclear fuel cycle options to favorably address the issues associated with a continuing or expanding use of nuclear power in the United States. The study produced information that can be used to inform decisions identifying potential directions for research and development on such fuel cycle options. An integrated nuclear fuel cycle option is defined in this study as including all aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, from obtaining natural resources for fuel to the ultimate disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) or radioactive wastes. Issues such as nuclear waste management, especially the increasing inventory of used nuclear fuel, the current uncertainty about used fuel disposal, and the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation have contributed to the reluctance to expand the use of nuclear power, even though it is recognized that nuclear power is a safe and reliable method of producing electricity. In this Options Study, current, evolutionary, and revolutionary nuclear energy options were all considered, including the use of uranium and thorium, and both once-through and recycle approaches. Available information has been collected and reviewed in order to evaluate the ability of an option to clearly address the challenges associated with the current implementation and potential expansion of commercial nuclear power in the United States. This Options Study is a comprehensive consideration and review of fuel cycle and technology options, including those for disposal, and is not constrained by any limitations that may be imposed by economics, technical maturity, past policy, or speculated future conditions. This Phase II report is intended to be used in conjunction with the Phase I report, and much information in that report is not repeated here, although some information has been updated to reflect recent developments. The focus in this Options Study was to

  6. Real-Time Evaluation of Breast Self-Examination Using Computer Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eman Mohammadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide and breast self-examination (BSE is considered as the most cost-effective approach for early breast cancer detection. The general objective of this paper is to design and develop a computer vision algorithm to evaluate the BSE performance in real-time. The first stage of the algorithm presents a method for detecting and tracking the nipples in frames while a woman performs BSE; the second stage presents a method for localizing the breast region and blocks of pixels related to palpation of the breast, and the third stage focuses on detecting the palpated blocks in the breast region. The palpated blocks are highlighted at the time of BSE performance. In a correct BSE performance, all blocks must be palpated, checked, and highlighted, respectively. If any abnormality, such as masses, is detected, then this must be reported to a doctor to confirm the presence of this abnormality and proceed to perform other confirmatory tests. The experimental results have shown that the BSE evaluation algorithm presented in this paper provides robust performance.

  7. Real-time evaluation of breast self-examination using computer vision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Eman; Dadios, Elmer P; Gan Lim, Laurence A; Cabatuan, Melvin K; Naguib, Raouf N G; Avila, Jose Maria C; Oikonomou, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women worldwide and breast self-examination (BSE) is considered as the most cost-effective approach for early breast cancer detection. The general objective of this paper is to design and develop a computer vision algorithm to evaluate the BSE performance in real-time. The first stage of the algorithm presents a method for detecting and tracking the nipples in frames while a woman performs BSE; the second stage presents a method for localizing the breast region and blocks of pixels related to palpation of the breast, and the third stage focuses on detecting the palpated blocks in the breast region. The palpated blocks are highlighted at the time of BSE performance. In a correct BSE performance, all blocks must be palpated, checked, and highlighted, respectively. If any abnormality, such as masses, is detected, then this must be reported to a doctor to confirm the presence of this abnormality and proceed to perform other confirmatory tests. The experimental results have shown that the BSE evaluation algorithm presented in this paper provides robust performance.

  8. Evaluation of Sidestream Darkfield Microscopy for Real-Time Imaging Acellular Dermal Matrix Revascularization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGeorge, Brent R; Olenczak, J Bryce; Cottler, Patrick S; Drake, David B; Lin, Kant Y; Morgan, Raymond F; Campbell, Christopher A

    2016-06-01

    Acellular dermal matrices (ADMs) serve as a regenerative framework for host cell integration and collagen deposition to augment the soft tissue envelope in ADM-assisted breast reconstruction-a process dependent on vascular ingrowth. To date noninvasive intra-operative imaging techniques have been inadequate to evaluate the revascularization of ADM. We investigated the safety, feasibility, and efficacy of sidestream darkfield (SDF) microscopy to assess the status of ADM microvascular architecture in 8 patients at the time of tissue expander to permanent implant exchange during 2-stage ADM-assisted breast reconstruction. The SDF microscopy is a handheld device, which can be used intraoperatively for the real-time assessment of ADM blood flow, vessel density, vessel size, and branching pattern. The SDF microscopy was used to assess the microvascular architecture in the center and border zone of the ADM and to compare the native, non-ADM-associated capsule in each patient as a within-subject control. No incidences of periprosthetic infection, explantation, or adverse events were reported after SDF image acquisition. Native capsules demonstrate a complex, layered architecture with an average vessel area density of 14.9 mm/mm and total vessel length density of 12.3 mm/mm. In contrast to native periprosthetic capsules, ADM-associated capsules are not uniformly vascularized structures and demonstrate 2 zones of microvascular architecture. The ADM and native capsule border zone demonstrates palisading peripheral vascular arcades with continuous antegrade flow. The central zone of the ADM demonstrates punctate perforating vascular plexi with intermittent, sluggish flow, and intervening 2- to 3-cm watershed zones. Sidestream darkfield microscopy allows for real-time intraoperative assessment of ADM revascularization and serves as a potential methodology to compare revascularization parameters among commercially available ADMs. Thr SDF microscopy demonstrates that the

  9. Manager’s Flexibility & Cancellation Option: Insights of a Case Study in the Latin American Oil Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Ridolfo Neto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This article focused on the main business insights of the use of Real Options valuation analysis in the eyes of a finance professional. It used a case study of an investment opportunity in the oil and gas field services industry in Latin America to discuss the methodology implementation and its insights. As a secondary objective, it discussed the insights and options embedded in this investment opportunity.Methodology: The investment opportunity was examined using the Real Options Analysis (ROA framework and the results compared to the traditional methodology of Net Present Value. The valuation technique was performed as if it had been applied at the time the project was approved.Findings: The most important of Real Option valuation is not the results, but how one arrives at them. After the project value is calculated and the project approved or not, the Real Option valuation requires and supports the monitoring of the project. By understanding how the options are created, managers can make better decisions about the project after it was approved.Practical implications: A relevant contribution from the study was the discussion, as a practitioner, of the methodology implementation in a real world corporation. Originality & value: The case study evaluated two types of real options: first, the effect of an option to cancel a contract that was assessed from the perspective of the client contracting the project; and second, the option to abandon and defer, from the perspective of the company that will perform the investment to provide the services. By incorporating the cost of the put option that the company puts forth for the client (cancellation option it reduces the project value by giving flexibility to its clients.

  10. Risk assessment of the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus for the EU territory and identification and evaluation of risk management options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    in its assessment that a) Castanea plants for intended planting represent the main pathway for entry of D. kuriphilus to the EU; b) D. kuriphilus has a very high potential for establishment in the EU and the climate is suitable wherever Castanea sativa is grown in southern, central and western Europe; c......The Panel on Plant Health was requested by the European Commission to deliver a scientific opinion on the risk posed by the oriental chestnut gall wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus to the EU territory and to identify and evaluate risk management options. Additional analyses were conducted by the Panel...... to a) determine the distribution of the endangered area within the EU territory; b) investigate the pattern and rate of pest diffusion and c) consider the environmental risk of introduction of the biological control agent Torymus sinensis identified as a potential management option. The Panel concluded...

  11. Idaho's Energy Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert M. Neilson

    2006-03-01

    This report, developed by the Idaho National Laboratory, is provided as an introduction to and an update of the status of technologies for the generation and use of energy. Its purpose is to provide information useful for identifying and evaluating Idaho’s energy options, and for developing and implementing Idaho’s energy direction and policies.

  12. EVALUATION OF LAND BASED ON MARKET PRICE OBJECTS OF REAL ESTATE IN UKRAINE: PROBLEMS AND WAYS OF THEIR SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARTYN А. G.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Summary. Raising of problem. During the reform of land and property relations, has been carried out in Ukraine since the early 1990s, land plots and buildings received the status of goods, participate in economic turnover, have value and price. At the same time, not the most important prerequisite for the introduction in Ukraine of a mass valuation of real estate, which is intended to become a base for the fair taxation of land plots and other real estate, should be the systematic collection of mass data on the market prices of real estate. Constant changes, additions and improvements to the current normative monetary assessment of land do not give a real change in the methodology of assessment because it is based on regulatory indicators, there is a non-market based assessment. This approach does not give positive results and in the overwhelming majority we distort the evaluation indicators. As a result, there is a situation where in some places the price of a square meter is much lower than the market (real price, while in others it is much higher than the actual price. Thus, the transition to the use of monetary land valuation, which is based on mass market indicators (mass valuation, will get rid of the regulatory indicators by introducing a market valuation base. Purpose. Conduct an analysis of the current state of monetary valuation of land in Ukraine, form the main problems of the modern land assessment area and guide the ways to improve and transition to market valuation of land based on widespread use of mass data on market prices of real estate. Conclusion. The analysis of the current state of the monetary valuation of land shows a significant deviation of the evaluation results with real market prices, indicating the imperfection of the existing method of normative monetary evaluation. Mass evaluation in the short term can solve the problems with the reliability of the estimates and improve the system of land taxation.

  13. Evaluation of an autonomous braking system in real-world PTW crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savino, Giovanni; Pierini, Marco; Rizzi, Matteo; Frampton, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Powered 2-wheelers (PTWs) are becoming increasingly popular in Europe. They have the ability to get around traffic queues, thus lowering fuel consumption and increasing mobility. The risk of rider injury in a traffic crash is however much higher than that associated with car users. The European project, Powered Two Wheeler Integrated Safety (PISa), identified an autonomous braking system (AB) as a priority to reduce the injury consequences of a PTW crash. The aim of this study was to assess the potential effectiveness of the AB system developed in PISa, taking into account the specific system characteristics that emerged during the design, development and testing phases. Fifty-eight PTW cases representing European crash configurations were examined, in which 43 percent of riders sustained a Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 2+ injury. Two of the most common crash types were a PTW impacting a stationary object (car following scenario) 16% and an object pulling across the PTW path (crossing scenario) 54%. An expert team analysed the in-depth material of the sample crashes and determined a posteriori to what extent the AB would have affected the crash. For those cases where the AB was evaluated as applicable, a further quantitative evaluation of the benefits was conducted by considering a set of different possible rider reactions in addition to that exhibited in the actual crash. In 67 percent of cases, the application of AB could have mitigated the crash outcome. Analysis of those real crash cases showed the potential for an expert rider to avoid the collision. An early reaction of the rider, associated with a correct application of the brakes would have avoided 18 of the 37 car following/crossing scenarios. Conversely, according to the analysis, an expert rider would not have been able to avoid 19 of the 37 cases. In 14 of those 19 cases, the AB would have contributed to mitigating the crash outcome. This study demonstrated significant potential for

  14. Comparative evaluation of a laboratory developed real-time PCR assay and the RealStar® HHV-6 PCR Kit for quantitative detection of human herpesvirus 6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C Y; Sridhar, Siddharth; Cheng, Andrew K W; Fung, Ami M Y; Cheng, Vincent C C; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2017-08-01

    HHV-6 reactivation in immunocompromised patients is common and may be associated with serious morbidity and mortality; therefore, early detection and initiation of therapy might be of benefit. Real-time PCR assays allow for early identification of HHV-6 reactivation to assist in providing a timely response. Thus, we compared the performance of an in-house developed HHV-6 quantitative PCR assay with a commercially available kit, the RealStar ® HHV-6 PCR Kit. The analytical sensitivity, analytical specificity, linearity, precision and accuracy of the in-house developed HHV-6 qPCR assay were evaluated. The diagnostic performance of the in-house HHV-6 qPCR assay was compared with the RealStar ® HHV-6 PCR Kit, using 72 clinical specimens and 17 proficiency testing samples. Linear regression analysis of the quantitative results showed a dynamic range from 2 to 10 log 10 copies/ml and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.999 for the in-house assay. A dilution series demonstrated a limit of detection and a limit of quantification of 1.7 log 10 and 2 log 10 copies/ml, respectively. The precision of the assay was highly reproducible among runs with coefficients of variance (CV) ranging from 0.27% to 4.37%. A comparison of 27 matched samples showed an excellent correlation between the quantitative viral loads measured by the in-house HHV-6 qPCR assay and the RealStar ® HHV-6 PCR Kit (R 2 =0.926; PPCR Kit. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of four endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays for common wheat quantification in GMOs detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Huali; Cheng, Fang; Wang, Ruoan; Zhang, Dabing; Yang, Litao

    2013-01-01

    Proper selection of endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays is quite important in genetically modified organisms (GMOs) detection. To find a suitable endogenous reference gene and its real-time PCR assay for common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) DNA content or copy number quantification, four previously reported wheat endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays were comprehensively evaluated for the target gene sequence variation and their real-time PCR performance among 37 common wheat lines. Three SNPs were observed in the PKABA1 and ALMT1 genes, and these SNPs significantly decreased the efficiency of real-time PCR amplification. GeNorm analysis of the real-time PCR performance of each gene among common wheat lines showed that the Waxy-D1 assay had the lowest M values with the best stability among all tested lines. All results indicated that the Waxy-D1 gene and its real-time PCR assay were most suitable to be used as an endogenous reference gene for common wheat DNA content quantification. The validated Waxy-D1 gene assay will be useful in establishing accurate and creditable qualitative and quantitative PCR analysis of GM wheat.

  16. Evaluation of four endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays for common wheat quantification in GMOs detection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huali Huang

    Full Text Available Proper selection of endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays is quite important in genetically modified organisms (GMOs detection. To find a suitable endogenous reference gene and its real-time PCR assay for common wheat (Triticum aestivum L. DNA content or copy number quantification, four previously reported wheat endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays were comprehensively evaluated for the target gene sequence variation and their real-time PCR performance among 37 common wheat lines. Three SNPs were observed in the PKABA1 and ALMT1 genes, and these SNPs significantly decreased the efficiency of real-time PCR amplification. GeNorm analysis of the real-time PCR performance of each gene among common wheat lines showed that the Waxy-D1 assay had the lowest M values with the best stability among all tested lines. All results indicated that the Waxy-D1 gene and its real-time PCR assay were most suitable to be used as an endogenous reference gene for common wheat DNA content quantification. The validated Waxy-D1 gene assay will be useful in establishing accurate and creditable qualitative and quantitative PCR analysis of GM wheat.

  17. Evaluation of Four Endogenous Reference Genes and Their Real-Time PCR Assays for Common Wheat Quantification in GMOs Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Huali; Cheng, Fang; Wang, Ruoan; Zhang, Dabing; Yang, Litao

    2013-01-01

    Proper selection of endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays is quite important in genetically modified organisms (GMOs) detection. To find a suitable endogenous reference gene and its real-time PCR assay for common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) DNA content or copy number quantification, four previously reported wheat endogenous reference genes and their real-time PCR assays were comprehensively evaluated for the target gene sequence variation and their real-time PCR performance among 37 common wheat lines. Three SNPs were observed in the PKABA1 and ALMT1 genes, and these SNPs significantly decreased the efficiency of real-time PCR amplification. GeNorm analysis of the real-time PCR performance of each gene among common wheat lines showed that the Waxy-D1 assay had the lowest M values with the best stability among all tested lines. All results indicated that the Waxy-D1 gene and its real-time PCR assay were most suitable to be used as an endogenous reference gene for common wheat DNA content quantification. The validated Waxy-D1 gene assay will be useful in establishing accurate and creditable qualitative and quantitative PCR analysis of GM wheat. PMID:24098735

  18. Real-Time Evaluation of 26-GBaud PAM-4 Intensity Modulation and Direct Detection Systems for Data-Center Interconnects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eiselt, Nicklas; Griesser, Helmut; Wei, Jinlong

    2016-01-01

    Real-time transmission with 26-GBaud PAM-4 as a promising modulation format for data-center interconnects with operation in C-band is evaluated. For an OSNR penalty below 2 dB a dispersion tolerance of up to 10 km of SSMF is achieved......Real-time transmission with 26-GBaud PAM-4 as a promising modulation format for data-center interconnects with operation in C-band is evaluated. For an OSNR penalty below 2 dB a dispersion tolerance of up to 10 km of SSMF is achieved...

  19. Nevada Transportation Options Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    P. GEHNER; E.M. WEAVER; L. FOSSUM

    2006-01-01

    of rail is restricted to approximately twelve, without upgrading public highways. There is high uncertainty as to what road upgrades and security/escorts the Nevada Department of Transportation would require to obtain an overweight/overdimensional permit. In addition, the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program has indicated that a larger cask weight than that analyzed in the Final Environmental Impact Statement may be required for naval shipments, resulting in additional costs for heavy-haul transport. These uncertainties result in a high cost and schedule risk. Option 3 assumes that the start of rail construction will be delayed until after construction authorization is received from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Similar to Option 2, Option 3 uses legal-weight truck shipments and limited heavy haul truck shipments to meet the same initial waste receipt rates as Option 1, until rail becomes available. By using heavy-haul truck for two years, Option 3 contains the same uncertainties and resultant high cost and schedule risk as Option 2. The cost and schedule of legal-weight truck transport are not included in this report as that will be evaluated in the report on national transportation

  20. Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.T.J. Smit (Han); L. Trigeorgis (Lenos)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractCorporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes

  1. Standards, options and recommends for the external radiotherapy of patients reached by prostate carcinoma: evaluation of dose effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pommier, P.; Fervers, B.; Villers, A.; Bataillard, A.

    2002-01-01

    The 'Standards, Options and Recommendations' (SOR) collaborative project was initiated in 1993 by the Federation of the French Cancer Centres (FNCLCC), with the 20 French Regional Cancer Centres (FNCCLCC), with the 20 French Regional Cancer Centres, several French public university and general hospitals, as well as private clinics and medical specialty societies. Its main objective is the development of serviceable clinical practice guidelines in order to improve the quality of health care and the outcome of cancer patients. The methodology is based on a literature review, followed by critical appraisal by a multidisciplinary group of experts. Draft guidelines for the radiotherapy of prostate cancer using the methodology developed by the Standards, Options and Recommendations project. The FNCLCC and the French Urology Association (AFU) designated the multidisciplinary group of experts. Available data were collected by a search of Medline and lists selected by experts in the group A first draft of the guidelines was written, they validated by independent reviewers. The main recommendations are: a minimal dose of 70 Gy; patients with intermediate prognosis are the ones who benefit most from the dose escalation effect over 74 Gy, provided they receive exclusive radiation therapy; whenever possible, patients should be included in controlled trials designed to assess the effects of dose escalation and hormonotherapy. (author)

  2. Disposal options for radioactive residues. Development of interdisciplinary evaluation principles in ENTRIA; Entsorgungsoptionen fuer hoch radioaktive Abfaelle. Die Schaffung interdisziplinaerer Bewertungsgrundlagen in ENTRIA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, C. [Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Radiooekologie und Strahlenschutz; Chaudry, S.; Plischke, E.; Roehlig, K.J. [TU Clausthal, Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany). Inst. fuer Endlagerforschung; Hocke, P. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Karlsruhe (Germany). Inst. fuer Technikfolgenabschaetzung und Systemanalyse; Eckhardt, A. [risicare GmbH, Zollikerberg (Switzerland); Ott, K. [Kiel Univ. (Germany). Philosophisches Seminar

    2016-07-01

    ENTRIA, short for ''Disposal Options for Radioactive Residues: Interdisciplinary Analyses and Development of Evaluation Principles'', is a joint project of twelve institutes or departments of German universities and research institutions as well as a partner from Switzerland. The fundamentally new approach here is the plurality of represented disciplines. ENTRIA analyzes radioactive waste management subjects from the viewpoint of natural sciences, engineering, arts, law and social science. ENTRIA works independently from politics, operators und interest groups. ENTRIA performs purely scientific research analyzing the three most important radioactive waste management option:''Final disposal in deep geological formations without any arrangements for retrieval (maintenance-free deep geological disposal)'', ''disposal in deep geological formations with arrangements for monitoring and retrieval'' and ''surface storage''. Based on these options ENTRIA developed generic ''reference models'' and generic host-rockdependent container models (ENCON). All these models are of generic character, but are elaborated to an extent, e.g. with respect to reversibility time scales, as is necessary for a comparative differentiated evaluation. Long-term surface storage is considered and evaluated because of the increasingly apparent need to address interim storage not only as (temporary) alternative, but also as a necessary part of the overall process. Besides disciplinary work packages performed in ENTRIA several tasks combine the expertise and perspective of disciplines which could classically be considered ''far apart''. A key task is the creation of interdisciplinary evaluation principles. This article provides insight into interdisciplinary working within ENTERIA and describes the present status of this work from the perspective of the authors. However, this is not

  3. A quantitative method to evaluate mesenchymal stem cell lipofection using real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, S C; Mendes, R; Madeira, C; Monteiro, G A; da Silva, C L; Cabral, J M S

    2010-01-01

    Genetic modification of human mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) is a powerful tool to improve the therapeutic utility of these cells and to increase the knowledge on their regulation mechanisms. In this context, strong efforts have been made recently to develop efficient nonviral gene delivery systems. Although several studies addressed this question most of them use the end product of a reporter gene instead of the DNA uptake quantification to test the transfection efficiency. In this study, we established a method based on quantitative real-time PCR (RT-PCR) to determine the intracellular plasmid DNA copy number in human MSC after lipofection. The procedure requires neither specific cell lysis nor DNA purification. The influence of cell number on the RT-PCR sensitivity was evaluated. The method showed good reproducibility, high sensitivity, and a wide linear range of 75-2.5 x 10⁶ plasmid DNA copies per cell. RT-PCR results were then compared with the percentage of transfected cells assessed by flow cytometry analysis, which showed that flow cytometry-based results are not always proportional to plasmid cellular uptake determined by RT-PCR. This work contributed for the establishment of a rapid quantitative assay to determine intracellular plasmid DNA in stem cells, which will be extremely beneficial for the optimization of gene delivery strategies. © 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

  4. Stochastic, real-space, imaginary-time evaluation of third-order Feynman–Goldstone diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So

    2014-01-01

    A new, alternative set of interpretation rules of Feynman–Goldstone diagrams for many-body perturbation theory is proposed, which translates diagrams into algebraic expressions suitable for direct Monte Carlo integrations. A vertex of a diagram is associated with a Coulomb interaction (rather than a two-electron integral) and an edge with the trace of a Green's function in real space and imaginary time. With these, 12 diagrams of third-order many-body perturbation (MP3) theory are converted into 20-dimensional integrals, which are then evaluated by a Monte Carlo method. It uses redundant walkers for convergence acceleration and a weight function for importance sampling in conjunction with the Metropolis algorithm. The resulting Monte Carlo MP3 method has low-rank polynomial size dependence of the operation cost, a negligible memory cost, and a naturally parallel computational kernel, while reproducing the correct correlation energies of small molecules within a few mE h after 10 6 Monte Carlo steps

  5. Stochastic, real-space, imaginary-time evaluation of third-order Feynman–Goldstone diagrams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willow, Soohaeng Yoo [Department of Chemistry, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 600 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States); Center for Superfunctional Materials, Department of Chemistry, Pohang University of Science and Technology, San 31, Hyojadong, Namgu, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); Hirata, So, E-mail: sohirata@illinois.edu [Department of Chemistry, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 600 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, Illinois 61801 (United States); CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama 332-0012 (Japan)

    2014-01-14

    A new, alternative set of interpretation rules of Feynman–Goldstone diagrams for many-body perturbation theory is proposed, which translates diagrams into algebraic expressions suitable for direct Monte Carlo integrations. A vertex of a diagram is associated with a Coulomb interaction (rather than a two-electron integral) and an edge with the trace of a Green's function in real space and imaginary time. With these, 12 diagrams of third-order many-body perturbation (MP3) theory are converted into 20-dimensional integrals, which are then evaluated by a Monte Carlo method. It uses redundant walkers for convergence acceleration and a weight function for importance sampling in conjunction with the Metropolis algorithm. The resulting Monte Carlo MP3 method has low-rank polynomial size dependence of the operation cost, a negligible memory cost, and a naturally parallel computational kernel, while reproducing the correct correlation energies of small molecules within a few mE{sub h} after 10{sup 6} Monte Carlo steps.

  6. Evaluation of real-time clinical decision support systems for platelet and cryoprecipitate orders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Ryan A; Triulzi, Darrell J; Waters, Jonathan H; Reddy, Vivek; Yazer, Mark H

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate cryoprecipitate and platelet ordering practices after the implementation of real-time clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) in a computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system. Uniform platelet and cryoprecipitate transfusion thresholds were implemented at 11 hospitals in a regional health care system with a common CPOE system. Over 6 months, a variety of information was collected on the ordering physicians and the number of alerts generated by the CDSSs when these products were ordered outside of the institutional guidelines. There were 1,889 orders for platelets and 152 orders for cryoprecipitate placed in 6 months. Of these, 1,102 (58.3%) platelet and 74 (48.7%) cryoprecipitate orders triggered an alert. The proportion of orders canceled after an alert was generated ranged from 13.5% to 17.9% for platelets and 0% to 50.0% for cryoprecipitate orders. CDSS alerts reduce, but do not eliminate, platelet and cryoprecipitate transfusions that do not meet institutional guidelines.

  7. Real-time measurement of relative sensor position changes using ultrasonic signal evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yastrebova, O.; Bulavinov, A.; Kroening, M. [Fraunhofer Institute Nondestructive Testing IZFP, Saarbruecken (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    Ultrasonic testing is considered to be one of the most commonly applied nondestructive testing techniques for flaw detection and material characterization. Traditional Nondestructive Testing (NDT) provides detection of material discontinuities that may cause failure within the designed lifetime of a part or component. In addition, Quantitative Nondestructive Testing (QNDT) provides means to obtain required information about type, size and location of deficiencies to the integrity of the inspected structure and further use under specific, given load conditions. The ''Acoustic Mouse'' technique has been developed as a tool for manual ultrasonic inspection to provide test results that can be evaluated quantitatively. The ultrasonic data are processed by real-time variation methods to extract position information from backscattered acoustic noise and geometric scatter signals in the inspection volume. The position and positional changes of the ''Acoustic Mouse'' sensor (transducer) are determined by the sequential analysis of ultrasonic data (highresolution sector-scans), which are acquired and reconstructed using the Sampling Phased Array technique. The results of first experiments conducted with linear scanning and intentional lift-offs demonstrate sufficient accuracy in position measurements. (orig.)

  8. Performance Evaluation of New Joint EDF-RM Scheduling Algorithm for Real Time Distributed System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Sharma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In Real Time System, the achievement of deadline is the main target of every scheduling algorithm. Earliest Deadline First (EDF, Rate Monotonic (RM, and least Laxity First are some renowned algorithms that work well in their own context. As we know, there is a very common problem Domino's effect in EDF that is generated due to overloading condition (EDF is not working well in overloading situation. Similarly, performance of RM is degraded in underloading condition. We can say that both algorithms are complements of each other. Deadline missing in both events happens because of their utilization bounding strategy. Therefore, in this paper we are proposing a new scheduling algorithm that carries through the drawback of both existing algorithms. Joint EDF-RM scheduling algorithm is implemented in global scheduler that permits task migration mechanism in between processors in the system. In order to check the improved behavior of proposed algorithm we perform simulation. Results are achieved and evaluated in terms of Success Ratio (SR, Average CPU Utilization (ECU, Failure Ratio (FR, and Maximum Tardiness parameters. In the end, the results are compared with the existing (EDF, RM, and D_R_EDF algorithms. It has been shown that the proposed algorithm performs better during overloading condition as well in underloading condition.

  9. Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

    2011-01-01

    of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

  10. Brain physiological state evaluated by real-time multiparametric tissue spectroscopy in vivo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayevsky, Avraham; Barbiro-Michaely, Efrat; Kutai-Asis, Hofit; Deutsch, Assaf; Jaronkin, Alex

    2004-07-01

    The significance of normal mitochondrial function in cellular energy homeostasis as well as its involvement in acute and chronic neurodegenerative disease was reviewed recently (Nicholls & Budd. Physiol Rev. 80: 315-360, 2000). Nevertheless, monitoring of mitochondrial function in vivo and real time mode was not used by many investigators and is very rare in clinical practice. The main principle tool available for the evaluation of mitochondrial function is the monitoring of NADH fluorescence. In order to interpret correctly the changes in NADH redox state in vivo, it is necessary to correlate this signal to other parameters, reflecting O2 supply to the brain. Therefore, we have developed and applied a multiparametric optical monitoring system, by which microcirculatory blood flow and hemoglobin oxygenation is measured, together with mitochondrial NADH fluorescence. Since the calibration of these signals is not in absolute units, the simultaneous monitoring provide a practical tool for the interpretation of brain functional state under various pathophysiological conditions. The monitoring system combines a time-sharing fluorometer-reflectometer for the measurement of NADH fluorescence and hemoglobin oxygenation as well as a laser Doppler flowmeter for the recording of microcirculatory blood flow. A combined fiber optic probe was located on the surface of the brain using a skull cemented cannula. Rats and gerbils were exposed to anoxia, ischemia and spreading depression and the functional state of the brain was evaluated. The results showed a clear correlation between O2 supply/demand as well as, energy balance under the various pathophysiological conditions. This monitoring approach could be adapted to clinical monitoring of tissue vitality.

  11. Field Evaluation of Two Geophysical Techniques for Real-Time Mapping of Smouldering Remediation (STAR)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trento, L. M.; Tsourlos, P.; McMaster, M.; Liefl, D.; Sims, A.; Dominguez, J. L. G.; Vidumsky, J.; Gerhard, J.

    2016-12-01

    Self-sustaining Treatment for Active Remediation (STAR) technology destroys non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) in situ using principles of smouldering combustion. It involves propagating an exothermic (400-1000C) oxidation reaction outwards from an ignition well. A full-scale STAR system is currently being applied at an industrial site contaminated with coal tar below the water table in New Jersey, USA. STAR is typically tracked using multi-level thermocouples, which are discrete and sparse in space and time. This study evaluates two surface-based geophysical methods - Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Self-Potential (SP) - for the ability to map the STAR reaction in real time at the New Jersey site. Both techniques involve placing electrode arrays on the surface and monitoring electrical signals over time (i.e., time-lapse). It is hypothesized that ERT should be able to monitor the resistive dry zone that precedes the reaction front and/or the growing NAPL-depleted zone. SP is expected to be able to detect the potential difference associated with thermal gradients generated by the reaction. Approximately 72 ERT electrodes in a "swiss cross" pattern plus 10 SP electrodes will be emplaced over single STAR treatment cell (six ignition wells). This setup will be employed to monitor both a deep (25 feet) and shallow (8 feet) STAR treatments. The geophysics will be complemented by in situ temperature measurements, continuous gas measurements, and pre- and post-treatment coring. The primary goal of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of using ERT and SP for STAR under field conditions. The tests will be conducted in August 2016.

  12. Online fluorescence spectroscopy for the real-time evaluation of the microbial quality of drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, J P R; Vivanco, A; Ascott, M J; Gooddy, D C; Lapworth, D J; Read, D S; Rushworth, C M; Bucknall, J; Herbert, K; Karapanos, I; Gumm, L P; Taylor, R G

    2018-06-15

    We assessed the utility of online fluorescence spectroscopy for the real-time evaluation of the microbial quality of untreated drinking water. Online fluorimeters were installed on the raw water intake at four groundwater-derived UK public water supplies alongside existing turbidity sensors that are used to forewarn of the presence of microbial contamination in the water industry. The fluorimeters targeted fluorescent dissolved organic matter (DOM) peaks at excitation/emission wavelengths of 280/365 nm (tryptophan-like fluorescence, TLF) and 280/450 nm (humic-like fluorescence, HLF). Discrete samples were collected for Escherichia coli, total bacterial cell counts by flow cytometry, and laboratory-based fluorescence and absorbance. Both TLF and HLF were strongly correlated with E. coli (ρ = 0.71-0.77) and total bacterial cell concentrations (ρ = 0.73-0.76), whereas the correlations between turbidity and E. coli (ρ = 0.48) and total bacterial cell counts (ρ = 0.40) were much weaker. No clear TLF peak was observed at the sites and all apparent TLF was considered to be optical bleed-through from the neighbouring HLF peak. Therefore, a HLF fluorimeter alone would be sufficient to evaluate the microbial water quality at these sources. Fluorescent DOM was also influenced by site operations such as pump start-up and the precipitation of cations on the sensor windows. Online fluorescent DOM sensors are a better indicator of the microbial quality of untreated drinking water than turbidity and they have wide-ranging potential applications within the water industry. Copyright © 2018 British Geological Survey, a component institute of NERC - 'BGS © NERC 2018'. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Evaluation of different enrichment methods for pathogenic Yersinia species detection by real time PCR

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Yersiniosis is a zoonotic disease reported worldwide. Culture and PCR based protocols are the most common used methods for detection of pathogenic Yersinia species in animal samples. PCR sensitivity could be increased by an initial enrichment step. This step is particularly useful in surveillance programs, where PCR is applied to samples from asymptomatic animals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the improvement in pathogenic Yersinia species detection using a suitable enrichment method prior to the real time PCR (rtPCR). Nine different enrichment protocols were evaluated including six different broth mediums (CASO, ITC, PSB, PBS, PBSMSB and PBSSSB). Results The analysis of variance showed significant differences in Yersinia detection by rtPCR according to the enrichment protocol used. These differences were higher for Y. pseudotuberculosis than for Y. enterocolitica. In general, samples incubated at lower temperatures yielded the highest detection rates. The best results were obtained with PBSMSB and PBS2. Application of PBSMSB protocol to free-ranging wild board samples improved the detection of Y. enterocolitica by 21.2% when compared with direct rtPCR. Y. pseudotuberculosis detection was improved by 10.6% when results obtained by direct rtPCR and by PBSMSB enrichment before rtPCR were analyzed in combination. Conclusions The data obtained in the present study indicate a difference in Yersinia detection by rtPCR related to the enrichment protocol used, being PBSMSB enrichment during 15 days at 4°C and PBS during 7 days at 4°C the most efficient. The use of direct rtPCR in combination with PBSMSB enrichment prior to rtPCR resulted in an improvement in the detection rates of pathogenic Yersinia in wild boar and could be useful for application in other animal samples. PMID:25168886

  14. Guidance on methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of options for reducing the risk of introduction and spread of organisms harmful to plant health in the EU territory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2012-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health (PLH Panel) to provide guidance for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the options for plants and plant products for reducing the risk of introduction and spread of harmful organisms in the European Union territory...... and guidance documents for assessing a proposed RRO. In addition, the current document provides recommendations for assessing RROs, specifically: on experimental design; on the use of statistical methods including approaches for studying uncertainty; on the use of quantitative pathway analysis and spread...

  15. Evaluation of a real-time travel time prediction system in a freeway construction work zone : final report, March 2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-03-01

    A real-time travel time prediction system (TIPS) was evaluated in a construction work zone. TIPS includes changeable message signs (CMSs) displaying the travel time and distance to the end of the work zone to motorists. The travel times displayed by ...

  16. Evaluation of a real-time travel time prediction system in a freeway construction work zone : executive summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-03-01

    A real-time travel time prediction system (TIPS) was evaluated in a construction work : zone. TIPS includes changeable message signs (CMSs) displaying the travel time and : distance to the end of the work zone to motorists. The travel times displayed...

  17. American options under stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.

    2011-01-01

    The problem of pricing an American option written on an underlying asset with constant price volatility has been studied extensively in literature. Real-world data, however, demonstrate that volatility is not constant, and stochastic volatility models are used to account for dynamic volatility

  18. Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baguelin, Marc; Hoek, Albert Jan Van; Jit, Mark; Flasche, Stefan; White, Peter J; Edmunds, W John

    2010-03-11

    Decisions on how to mitigate an evolving pandemic are technically challenging. We present a real-time assessment of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative influenza A/H1N1v vaccination strategies. A transmission dynamic model was fitted to the estimated number of cases in real-time, and used to generate plausible autumn scenarios under different vaccination options. The proportion of these cases by age and risk group leading to primary care consultations, National Pandemic Flu Service consultations, emergency attendances, hospitalisations, intensive care and death was then estimated using existing data from the pandemic. The real-time model suggests that the epidemic will peak in early November, with the peak height being similar in magnitude to the summer wave. Vaccination of the high-risk groups is estimated to prevent about 45 deaths (80% credibility interval 26-67), and save around 2900 QALYs (80% credibility interval 1600-4500). Such a programme is very likely to be cost-effective if the cost of vaccine purchase itself is treated as a sunk cost. Extending vaccination to low-risk individuals is expected to result in more modest gains in deaths and QALYs averted. Extending vaccination to school-age children would be the most cost-effective extension. The early availability of vaccines is crucial in determining the impact of such extensions. There have been a considerable number of cases of H1N1v in England, and so the benefits of vaccination to mitigate the ongoing autumn wave are limited. However, certain groups appear to be at significantly higher risk of complications and deaths, and so it appears both effective and cost-effective to vaccinate them. The United Kingdom was the first country to have a major epidemic in Europe. In countries where the epidemic is not so far advanced vaccination of children may be cost-effective. Similar, detailed, real-time modelling and economic studies could help to clarify the situation.

  19. Evaluation of the cognitive effects of travel technique in complex real and virtual environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suma, Evan A; Finkelstein, Samantha L; Reid, Myra; V Babu, Sabarish; Ulinski, Amy C; Hodges, Larry F

    2010-01-01

    We report a series of experiments conducted to investigate the effects of travel technique on information gathering and cognition in complex virtual environments. In the first experiment, participants completed a non-branching multilevel 3D maze at their own pace using either real walking or one of two virtual travel techniques. In the second experiment, we constructed a real-world maze with branching pathways and modeled an identical virtual environment. Participants explored either the real or virtual maze for a predetermined amount of time using real walking or a virtual travel technique. Our results across experiments suggest that for complex environments requiring a large number of turns, virtual travel is an acceptable substitute for real walking if the goal of the application involves learning or reasoning based on information presented in the virtual world. However, for applications that require fast, efficient navigation or travel that closely resembles real-world behavior, real walking has advantages over common joystick-based virtual travel techniques.

  20. Mixed waste management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owens, C.B.; Kirner, N.P.

    1992-01-01

    Currently, limited storage and treatment capacity exists for commercial mixed waste streams. No commercial mixed waste disposal is available, and it has been estimated that if and when commercial mixed waste disposal becomes available, the costs will be high. If high disposal fees are imposed, generators may be willing to apply extraordinary treatment or regulatory approaches to properly dispose of their mixed waste. This paper explores the feasibility of several waste management scenarios and management options. Existing data on commercially generated mixed waste streams are used to identify the realm of mixed waste known to be generated. Each waste stream is evaluated from both a regulatory and technical perspective in order to convert the waste into a strictly low-level radioactive or a hazardous waste. Alternative regulatory approaches evaluated in this paper include a delisting petition) no migration petition) and a treatability variance. For each waste stream, potentially available treatment options are identified that could lead to these variances. Waste minimization methodology and storage for decay are also considered. Economic feasibility of each option is discussed broadly. Another option for mixed waste management that is being explored is the feasibility of Department of Energy (DOE) accepting commercial mixed waste for treatment, storage, and disposal. A study has been completed that analyzes DOE treatment capacity in comparison with commercial mixed waste streams. (author)