Valuing of research project in energy field with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Blasio, N.; Marzo, G.; Turatto, R.

2008-01-01

This article presents an application of real options theory for valuing a research project in the field of stranded gas valorisation. After a presentation of the theory, the analysis addresses the use of real options evaluation for generating alternative pathways in order to add new value to the R D projects. It also shows how real option approach may be important for selecting among competitive projects, but also for providing a system for valorisation of decision-maker flexibility [it

Retrospective insights from real options in R&D

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lint, L.J.O.

2000-01-01

Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics

The synchrotron option for a multi-megawatt proton driver

CERN Document Server

Prior, C R

2006-01-01

Of the three main options for a proton driver for a neutrino facility, synchrotron-based designs feature in proposals from J-PARC, Brookhaven and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory. There are also synchrotron and linac options being considered in parallel at Fermilab. The Japanese machine has been developed from initial plans for a 3 GeV neutron source into a multi-purpose facility, with the addition of a 50 GeV proton synchrotron in a phased programme of construction. Brookhaven's ideas are based on upgrading the AGS, first to 1 MW and then to 4 MW. Fermilab is looking for a design to bypass the bottleneck that is the existing booster. At RAL, several designs have emerged, including one specifically based on upgrading the ISIS spallation neutron source into a possible dual neutron- neutrino facility.

Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

2017-08-01

Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

Can We Model Driver Perceptions? An In-Situ Experiment in Real-World Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aly M. Tawfik, PhD

2014-06-01

Full Text Available It is clear that perceptions play a significant role in traveler decisions. Consequently, traveler perceptions are a corner stone in the feasibility of traveler information systems; for traveler information systems are only valuable if the drivers are incapable of accurately acquiring the provided information on their own, and if the provided information is relevant for the drivers' decision criteria. Accuracy of traveler perceptions has been repeatedly researched in public transportation, and has been found to vary according to different reasons. However, in spite of the clear significance of traveler perceptions, minimal effort has been put into modeling it. Almost all travel behavior models are based on traveler experiences, which are assumed to reflect traveler perceptions via the addition of some random error component. This works introduces an alternative approach: instead of adding an error component to represent driver perceptions, it proposes to model driver perceptions. This work is based on a real-world route choice experiment of a sample of 20 drivers who made more than 2,000 real-world route choices. Each of the drivers' experiences, perceptions, and choices were recorded, analyzed and cross examined. The paper demonstrates that: i driver experiences are different from driver perceptions, ii driver perceptions explain driver choices better than driver experiences, iii it is possible to model and predict driver perceptions of travel distance, time and speed.

Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

2016-01-01

Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies with multinat......Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies...... with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

The research for flexible product family manufacturing based on real options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maozhu Jin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The goal of this paper is to find the best production strategy for product mix, which means the largest value of the options. And finally, give a case and find the solution of the optimal production strategy for product mix. Design/methodology/approach: This article, based on the production with characteristics of a call option and 0-1 integer programming model, build new-products mix strategy, and through case demonstrate that traditional method underestimates the value of the products mix. Finding: According to market being volatility and uncertainty and the production can being delayed, firms can flexibly arrange the best time for products to manufacture. Use real options theory to analyze product decision and the best production timing decision. Find the total options value is higher than the traditional methods. Research limitations/implications: We are not applied to real option pricing theory in modular flexible production system. We just applied real option pricing theory to the product platform. The basic model needs to improve. While the thinking of this paper provides some research ideas for flexible production systems based on real option in further research. Practical Implications: The introduction of the real option make the company can achieve dynamic planning and flexible management for production of products mix and get the better benefit. Originality/value: The central contribution of this paper is to introduce the option mechanism in the production timing for the product mix.

STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

2003-01-01

Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Huan Ran

2006-01-01

This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

2015-04-01

Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this

Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

2015-01-01

Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

Driver trust in five driver assistance technologies following real-world use in four production vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Kidd, David G; Cicchino, Jessica B; Reagan, Ian J; Kerfoot, Laura B

2017-05-29

Information about drivers' experiences with driver assistance technologies in real driving conditions is sparse. This study characterized driver interactions with forward collision warning, adaptive cruise control, active lane keeping, side-view assist, and lane departure warning systems following real-world use. Fifty-four Insurance Institute for Highway Safety employees participated and drove a 2016 Toyota Prius, 2016 Honda Civic, 2017 Audi Q7, or 2016 Infiniti QX60 for up to several weeks. Participants reported mileage and warnings from the technologies in an online daily-use survey. Participants reported their level of agreement with five statements regarding trust in an online post-use survey. Responses were averaged to create a composite measure of trust ranging from -2 (strongly disagree) to +2 (strongly agree) for each technology. Mixed-effect regression models were constructed to compare trust among technologies and separately among the study vehicles. Participants' free-response answers about what they liked least about each system were coded and examined. Participants reported driving 33,584 miles during 4 months of data collection. At least one forward collision warning was reported in 26% of the 354 daily reports. The proportion of daily reports indicating a forward collision warning was much larger for the Honda (70%) than for the Audi (18%), Infiniti (15%), and Toyota (10%). Trust was highest for side-view assist (0.98) and lowest for active lane keeping (0.20). Trust in side-view assist was significantly higher than trust in active lane keeping and lane departure warning (0.53). Trust in active lane keeping was significantly lower than trust in adaptive cruise control (0.67) and forward collision warning (0.71). Trust in adaptive cruise control was higher for the Audi (0.72) and Toyota (0.75) compared with the Honda (0.30), and significantly higher for the Infiniti (0.93). Trust in Infiniti's side-view assist (0.58) was significantly lower than

The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Maya Ochoa

2006-12-01

Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

Driver headway choice : A comparison between driving simulator and real-road driving

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Risto, M.; Martens, M.H.

2014-01-01

Driving simulators have become an established tool in driver behaviour research by offering a controllable, safe and cost-effective alternative to real world driving. A challenge for using driving simulators as a research tool has been to elicit driving behaviour that equals real world driving. With

Driver headway choice: a comparison between driving simulator and real-road driving

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Risto, Malte; Martens, Marieke Hendrikje

2014-01-01

Driving simulators have become an established tool in driver behaviour research by offering a controllable, safe and cost-effective alternative to real world driving. A challenge for using driving simulators as a research tool has been to elicit driving behaviour that equals real world driving. With

The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

Science.gov (United States)

Nwankpa, Joseph K.

2012-01-01

Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A.

2008-01-01

The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

Acquisitions and Real Options : The Greenfield Alternative

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouthers, Keith D.; Dikova, Desislava

P>Although acquisitions are a popular way to enter new markets, empirical evidence tends to indicate few benefits accrue to acquiring firms. This might be the case because firms use acquisitions when they should be employing an alternative mode of expansion. Applying real options theory to this

Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.

2003-01-01

Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

2001-01-01

Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gordon G. Sollars

2012-01-01

Full Text Available he possibility of a first-mover advantage arises in a variety of strategic choices, including product introductions, business start-ups, and mergers and acquisitions. The strategic management literature reflects ambiguity regarding the likelihood that a first mover can or will capture additional value. This paper uses a real options approach to address the optimal timing of strategic moves. Previous studies have modeled real options using either a perpetual or a European financial option. With these models, a strategic choice could only be made either without respect to a time frame (perpetual or at a fixed point in time (European option. Neither case is realistic. Companies typically have strategic options with only a limited time frame due to market factors, but companies may choose to act at any time within that constraint. To reflect this reality, we adapt a method for valuing an American financial option on a dividend paying stock to the real options context. The method presented in this paper proposes a solution for the optimum value for a project that should trigger a strategic choice, and highlights the value lost by not acting optimally. We use simulation results to show that the time frame available to make a strategic choice has an important effect on both the project value for when action should be taken, as well as on the value of waiting to invest at the optimal time. The results presented in this paper help to clarify the ambiguity that is found in the strategic management literature regarding the possibility of obtaining a first-mover advantage. Indeed, a first mover that acts sub-optimally could incur losses or at least not gain any advantage. A first mover that waits to invest at the right time based on the superior information supplied by models based on real options could be better positioned to obtain the benefits that might come from the first move.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

2011-01-01

The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

The solenoidal transport option: IFE drivers, near term research facilities, and beam dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, E.P.; Briggs, R.J.

1997-09-01

Solenoidal magnets have been used as the beam transport system in all the high current electron induction accelerators that have been built in the past several decades. They have also been considered for the front end transport system for heavy ion accelerators for Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) drivers, but this option has received very little attention in recent years. The analysis reported here was stimulated mainly by the recent effort to define an affordable open-quotes Integrated Research Experimentclose quotes (IRE) that can meet the near term needs of the IFE program. The 1996 FESAC IFE review panel agreed that an integrated experiment is needed to fully resolve IFE heavy ion driver science and technology issues; specifically, open-quotes the basic beam dynamics issues in the accelerator, the final focusing and transport issues in a reactor-relevant beam parameter regime, and the target heating phenomenologyclose quotes. The development of concepts that can meet these technical objectives and still stay within the severe cost constraints all new fusion proposals will encounter is a formidable challenge. Solenoidal transport has a very favorable scaling as the particle mass is decreased (the main reason why it is preferred for electrons in the region below 50 MeV). This was recognized in a recent conceptual study of high intensity induction linac-based proton accelerators for Accelerator Driven Transmutation Technologies, where solenoidal transport was chosen for the front end. Reducing the ion mass is an obvious scaling to exploit in an IRE design, since the output beam voltage will necessarily be much lower than that of a full scale driver, so solenoids should certainly be considered as one option for this experiment as well

Growing short rotation coppice on agricultural land in Germany: A Real Options Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musshoff, Oliver

2012-01-01

In many cases decision-makers apparently do not adapt as fast as expected to changing economic conditions. This is also the case for the conversion of farm land to short rotation coppice. From an economic point of view, short rotation coppice has become more interesting in the last few years. Nevertheless, farm land still is rarely used to grow this quite unknown crop. Several explanatory approaches (e.g., traditionalistic behavior and risk aversion) are currently discussed in order to explain this behavior. A relatively new explanatory approach is the Real Options Approach. The Real Options Approach uses a comprehensive dynamic-stochastic model that combines the uncertainty of investment returns, the sunk costs, and the temporal flexibility of the investment implementation. The quintessence of the Real Options Approach is that—compared to the Classical Investment Theory—the investment triggers will be shifted upwards if investments involve intertemporal opportunity costs. This paper develops a real options model which allows the determination of triggers on the basis of realistic assumptions. We examined when farmers, who only dispose of sandy soils with little water-storing capacity, should convert set-aside land to short rotation coppice. The results show that farmers should not convert until the present value of the investment returns exceeds the investment costs considerably. Thus, they confirm the empirically observed reluctance in conversion. Furthermore, it turned out that the magnitude of the difference between the Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach depends heavily on the type of stochastic process that underlies the investment returns. -- Highlights: ► Frequently observed reluctance of farmers to convert to short rotation coppice. ► Risk neutral farmers should convert if the investment multiple exceeds 1.57. ► The Real Options Approach is an explanatory approach for this observation. ► Results depend very much on the

Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

WU Hong

2005-01-01

This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

Real Options Analysis of Mining Projects

OpenAIRE

Rudolf Zdravlje

2011-01-01

When long life assets are being evaluated based on constant predictions of future variables and the assumptions of zero management flexibility, is value being missed? In project evaluation today, the most common evaluation methods that calculate a net present value are discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. A fourth method, which is beginning to gain ground in terms of its use in the mining industry, is real option analysis (ROA). ROA utilizes ...

A Real Options Approach to Nuclear Waste Disposal in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soederkvist, Jonas; Joensson, Kristian

2004-04-01

This report is concerned with an investigation of how the real options approach can be useful for managerial decisions regarding the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden. The problem of interest is the optimal time-schedule for phase-out activities, where the optimal time-schedule is defined in purely economical terms. The approach taken is actual construction and application of three real options models, which capture different aspects of managerial decisions. The first model concerns when investments in deep disposal facilities should optimally be made. Although the model is a rough simplification of reality, the result is clear. It is economically advantageous to postpone deep disposal forever. The second model focuses on how the uncertainty of future costs relates to managerial investment decisions. Construction of this model required some creativity, as the nuclear phase-out turns out to be quite a special project. The result from the second model is that there can be a value associated with deferral of investments due to the uncertainty of future costs, but the result is less clear-cut compared to the first model. In the third model, we extend an approach suggested by Louberge, Villeneuve and Chesney. The risk of a nuclear accident is introduced through this model and we develop its application to investigate the Swedish phase-out in particular, which implies that waste continuously disposed. In the third model, focus is shifted from investment timing to implementation timing. The results from the third model are merely qualitative, as it is considered beyond the scope of this work to quantitatively determine all relevant inputs. It is concluded that the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden is not just another area of application for standard real options techniques. A main reason is that although there are a lot of uncertain issues regarding the phase-out, those uncertainties do not leave a lot of room for managerial flexibility if

Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakić Biljana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MAFTEI DANIEL

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

Towards Real-Time, Nonintrusive Estimation of Driver Workload: A Simulator Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Gent, P.; Farah, H.; Nes, Nicole Van; van Arem, B.

2017-01-01

The aim of this research is to work towards building an open-source, platform-independent algorithm capable of predicting driver workload in real-time and in a non-intrusive way. To work towards a system that can also be implemented in on-road settings, we aimed at using off-the-shelf, non-intrusive

Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

Online Detection of Driver Fatigue Using Steering Wheel Angles for Real Driving Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zuojin Li

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a drowsiness on-line detection system for monitoring driver fatigue level under real driving conditions, based on the data of steering wheel angles (SWA collected from sensors mounted on the steering lever. The proposed system firstly extracts approximate entropy (ApEnfeaturesfromfixedslidingwindowsonreal-timesteeringwheelanglestimeseries. Afterthat, this system linearizes the ApEn features series through an adaptive piecewise linear fitting using a given deviation. Then, the detection system calculates the warping distance between the linear features series of the sample data. Finally, this system uses the warping distance to determine the drowsiness state of the driver according to a designed binary decision classifier. The experimental data were collected from 14.68 h driving under real road conditions, including two fatigue levels: “wake” and “drowsy”. The results show that the proposed system is capable of working online with an average 78.01% accuracy, 29.35% false detections of the “awake” state, and 15.15% false detections of the “drowsy” state. The results also confirm that the proposed method based on SWA signal is valuable for applications in preventing traffic accidents caused by driver fatigue.

A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

2009-01-01

textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arasteh, Abdollah

2016-09-01

Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

2001-01-01

Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN NEW ZEALAND: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tran, Van

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Real Options (RO has been a universally accepted concept in a number of major industries. However, its use in the construction supply chain management (CSCM sector has been limited. Some rare supply chain management RO studies have shown a number of limitations. First, there is a lack of a rigorous theoretical RO framework pertaining specifically to CSCM. All such supply chain management RO studies are based off RO theories or models developed for other sectors (engineering, infrastructure, natural resources. And second, attempts to extend real option to wider uses in CSCM seem premature at the present. This paper reviews all recent literature pertaining to real options and real options applied specifically to the construction supply chain management area. The study proposes a research programme pertaining to CSCM in New Zealand in order to enhance the current understanding of RO in this area and in the process develop a comprehensive theory for the RO application in New Zealand CSCM.

Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

2013-12-15

Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2016-06-01

The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design and Implementation of Real-Time Vehicular Camera for Driver Assistance and Traffic Congestion Estimation.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Sanghyun; Baek, Yunju

2015-08-18

As society has developed, the number of vehicles has increased and road conditions have become complicated, increasing the risk of crashes. Therefore, a service that provides safe vehicle control and various types of information to the driver is urgently needed. In this study, we designed and implemented a real-time traffic information system and a smart camera device for smart driver assistance systems. We selected a commercial device for the smart driver assistance systems, and applied a computer vision algorithm to perform image recognition. For application to the dynamic region of interest, dynamic frame skip methods were implemented to perform parallel processing in order to enable real-time operation. In addition, we designed and implemented a model to estimate congestion by analyzing traffic information. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using images of a real road environment. We found that the processing time improved by 15.4 times when all the proposed methods were applied in the application. Further, we found experimentally that there was little or no change in the recognition accuracy when the proposed method was applied. Using the traffic congestion estimation model, we also found that the average error rate of the proposed model was 5.3%.

Design and Implementation of Real-Time Vehicular Camera for Driver Assistance and Traffic Congestion Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanghyun Son

2015-08-01

Full Text Available As society has developed, the number of vehicles has increased and road conditions have become complicated, increasing the risk of crashes. Therefore, a service that provides safe vehicle control and various types of information to the driver is urgently needed. In this study, we designed and implemented a real-time traffic information system and a smart camera device for smart driver assistance systems. We selected a commercial device for the smart driver assistance systems, and applied a computer vision algorithm to perform image recognition. For application to the dynamic region of interest, dynamic frame skip methods were implemented to perform parallel processing in order to enable real-time operation. In addition, we designed and implemented a model to estimate congestion by analyzing traffic information. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated using images of a real road environment. We found that the processing time improved by 15.4 times when all the proposed methods were applied in the application. Further, we found experimentally that there was little or no change in the recognition accuracy when the proposed method was applied. Using the traffic congestion estimation model, we also found that the average error rate of the proposed model was 5.3%.

Development of device drivers embedded in real time OS for SPring-8 SR control system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masuda, T.; Fujiwara, S.; Nakamura, T.; Takebe, H.; Wada, T.

1994-01-01

A distributed computer system has been adopted for the SPring-8 SR control system. For lower level computers, we intend to adopt VMEbus computer systems with the real time OS which are compliant with POSIX. For R and D study, we introduced LynxOS and wrote device drivers for Digital Output(DO), Digital Input(DI) and Analog Input(AI) boards on VMEbus. They were successfully operated with device drivers. (author)

Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezhi Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

New perspective of real options theory for policy analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sadowski, B.M.

2007-01-01

In deze Reflectie geeft Sadowski een alternatief, of eigenlijk een aanvulling op de KBA, vanuit de real options theory, zoals die ook in de financiële sector gebruikt wordt. Het idee is dat er in dynamische markten veel ontwikkelingen zijn: technologisch, een markt in beweging of industriële

Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

2008-07-01

The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

2015-01-01

The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Priscilla Yung Medeiros

2003-06-01

Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kenji

2004-01-01

As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Novotný Josef

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

Science.gov (United States)

Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

2017-06-01

Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

Comparison of Microscopic Drivers' Probabilistic Lane-changing Models With Real Traffic Microscopic Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyyed Mohammad Sadat Hoseini

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The difficulties of microscopic-level simulation models to accurately reproduce real traffic phenomena stem not only from the complexity of calibration and validation operations, but also from the structural inadequacies of the sub-models themselves. Both of these drawbacks originate from the scant information available on real phenomena because of the difficulty in gathering accurate field data. This paper studies the traffic behaviour of individual drivers utilizing vehicle trajectory data extracted from digital images collected from freeways in Iran. These data are used to evaluate the four proposed microscopic traffic models. One of the models is based on the traffic regulations in Iran and the three others are probabilistic models that use a decision factor for calculating the probability of choosing a position on the freeway by a driver. The decision factors for three probabilistic models are increasing speed, decreasing risk of collision, and increasing speed combined with decreasing risk of collision. The models are simulated by a cellular automata simulator and compared with the real data. It is shown that the model based on driving regulations is not valid, but that other models appear useful for predicting the driver’s behaviour on freeway segments in Iran during noncongested conditions.

Electrodermal Activity Based Wearable Device for Drowsy Drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Malathi, D.; Dorathi Jayaseeli, JD; Madhuri, S.; Senthilkumar, K.

2018-04-01

Road safety and road accident mortality rate are a serious concern for the government. With rise in fatal road accidents, who’s leading cause is the driver being drowsy behind the wheel, measures to alleviate this problem becomes the prime task. To meet the purpose, methods adopted must be of minimum discomfort for the driver, easy to install, provide good detection accuracy and timely alert to circumvent a probable accident. A good candidate to meet these specifications is EDA. As it detects the level of sweat which directly corresponds to the mental state of the person, using EDA for the purposes of driver safety forms a good option. The novelty of this project lies in making use of EDA as a measure to detect if a person is drowsy or not. Much of the challenge lies in building a device equipped with the necessary sensors and processing the data on real-time. The novelty of this work lies in development of an embedded device interfaced with sensors and actuators to detect and alert a driver when found drowsy using sweat as a parameter.

Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, G.; Owens, B.

2003-02-01

One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga Investment Projects on Iran's natural gas reserves. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... methodology – discounted cash flow analysis – in valuation of Giga investments.

THE THEORY OF REAL OPTIONS in investment ANALYSIS of agroforestry systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maísa Santos Joaquim

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this study we compared the values generated by traditional economic analysis (Net Present Value - NPV with Real Options Method. The objective was to apply the method proposed by Copeland & Antikarov for rainbow options, due to three stochastic variables selected with decision of abandonment if the project value with flexibility was less than the value of the underlying stock. It enabled the flexibility value generation in order to entrepreneurs to have more confidence in their decision when they are investing in a project with Agroforestry System, with different scenarios visualization in a single analysis. The results evidenced that the economic viability analysis, using Real Options, provided the best view of the possible scenarios, within a range generated by the prices volatility. The Net Present Value adopted as the underlying stock value was R$ 5,684.32, using the discount rate (WACC of 9.95% and risk-free interest rate of 7.5%. To determine the volatility were calculated: the logarithmic return standard deviation (27.06, the average (0.0883, upward movements values (u (1.3107 with 61.34% of probability and downward movements values (d(0.7628 with 38.66%  of probability. The option value in case of abandonment was R$ 2,059.01/ha positive. The results showed that the NPV overestimated the project return and that it would be viable to abandon it.

A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

2016-01-01

The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine developme...

Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

2004-01-01

This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

2016-01-01

In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

When to Wait for More Evidence? Real Options Analysis in Proton Therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Abrams, Keith R.; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Peters, Hans J.M.; Beutner, Eric; Lambin, Philippe; Joore, Manuela A.

2011-01-01

Purpose. Trends suggest that cancer spending growth will accelerate. One method for controlling costs is to examine whether the benefits of new technologies are worth the extra costs. However, especially new and emerging technologies are often more costly, while limited clinical evidence of superiority is available. In that situation it is often unclear whether to adopt the new technology now, with the risk of investing in a suboptimal therapy, or to wait for more evidence, with the risk of withholding patients their optimal treatment. This trade-off is especially difficult when it is costly to reverse the decision to adopt a technology, as is the case for proton therapy. Real options analysis, a technique originating from financial economics, assists in making this trade-off. Methods. We examined whether to adopt proton therapy, as compared to stereotactic body radiotherapy, in the treatment of inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. Three options are available: adopt without further research; adopt and undertake a trial; or delay adoption and undertake a trial. The decision depends on the expected net gain of each option, calculated by subtracting its total costs from its expected benefits. Results. In The Netherlands, adopt and trial was found to be the preferred option, with an optimal sample size of 200 patients. Increase of treatment costs abroad and costs of reversal altered the preferred option. Conclusion. We have shown that real options analysis provides a transparent method of weighing the costs and benefits of adopting and/or further researching new and expensive technologies. PMID:22147003

A real option analysis of investments in hydropower-The case of Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kjaerland, Frode

2007-01-01

This paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the Norwegian context. According to NVE (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the regulator), there is a potential of 39 TWh not yet developed (generation in a normal year is approximately 120 TWh). By using the conceptual real option framework of Dixit and Pindyck [1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to NOK 11 million/GWh (EUR 1.4 million/GWh). Furthermore, the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to NOK 0.32/kWh (EUR 0.04/kWh). The analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in Norwegian hydropower

An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

A real time status monitor for transistor bank driver power limit resistor in boost injection kicker power supply

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mi, J.; Tan, Y.; Zhang, W.

2011-03-28

For years suffering of Booster Injection Kicker transistor bank driver regulator troubleshooting, a new real time monitor system has been developed. A simple and floating circuit has been designed and tested. This circuit monitor system can monitor the driver regulator power limit resistor status in real time and warn machine operator if the power limit resistor changes values. This paper will mainly introduce the power supply and the new designed monitoring system. This real time resistor monitor circuit shows a useful method to monitor some critical parts in the booster pulse power supply. After two years accelerator operation, it shows that this monitor works well. Previously, we spent a lot of time in booster machine trouble shooting. We will reinstall all 4 PCB into Euro Card Standard Chassis when the power supply system will be updated.

Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel Náplava

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

2010-01-01

This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam

OpenAIRE

Luong, Quoc; Tauer, Loren W.

2004-01-01

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world’s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this paper examines Vietnamese coffee growers’ investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continu...

MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cecilia Maya Ochoa

2004-12-01

Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

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Nishtha Manocha

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

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KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

2013-07-01

A large number of economic evaluations have already confirmed the cost-effectiveness of different human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Standard analyses might not capture the full economic value of novel vaccination programs because the cost-effectiveness paradigm fails to take into account the value of active management. Management decisions can be seen as real options, a term used to refer to the application of option pricing theory to the valuation of investments in nonfinancial assets in which much of the value is attributable to flexibility and learning over time. The aim of this article was to discuss the potential advantages shown by using the payoff method in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing HPV immunization programs. This was the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use the payoff method to determine the real option values of 4 different HPV vaccination strategies targeting female subjects aged 12, 15, 18, and 25 years. The payoff method derives the real option value from the triangular payoff distribution of the project's net present value, which is treated as a triangular fuzzy number. To inform the real option model, cost-effectiveness data were derived from an empirically calibrated Bayesian model designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a multicohort HPV vaccination strategy in the context of the current cervical cancer screening program in Italy. A net health benefit approach was used to calculate the expected fuzzy net present value for each of the 4 vaccination strategies evaluated. Costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained seemed to be related to the number of cohorts targeted: a single cohort of girls aged 12 years (€10,955 [95% CI, -1,021 to 28,212]) revealed the lowest cost among the 4 alternative strategies evaluated. The real option valuation challenged the cost-effectiveness dominance of a single cohort of 12-year-old girls. The simultaneous vaccination of 2 cohorts of girls aged 12 and 15

Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

2001-01-01

This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist and

EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

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Sebastián Otero G

2008-06-01

representa su capacidad de incorporar en el análisis el valor de la flexibilidad operativa del proyecto.In the past few years, real options, an extension of financial derivatives, have arisen as an alternative to traditional valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV. The key attribute of real options is that they take into consideration the uncertainty and flexibility involved in investment valuation. This article provides an overview of the finite difference method, by presenting an application to the real options valuation. The empirical section of the article, which makes use of the implicit finite difference method (IFD, analyzes the options of waiting, abandoning, contracting, expanding and switching, by valuing all the options involved and their possible combinations. The results are compared with those of the NPV method and the binomial tree with a logarithmic transformation (BTLT. Both methods (IFD and BTLT yield similar results, being both greater than those provided by the NPV. This difference comes to no surprise as it represents the value of the flexibility associated to an investment opportunity.

When Do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? : A Real Option Framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cassimon, D.; Engelen, P.J.; Liedekerke, L.

2014-01-01

In this paper, the process for firms to decide whether or not to invest in corporate social responsibility is treated from a real option perspective. We extend the Husted (2005) framework with an important extra parameter that allows us to understand the timing of CSR investment and explain why some

Online driver's license renewal.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-01

The Kentucky Department of Vehicle Regulation is exploring the possibility of developing and implementing online : drivers license renewal. The objective of this project was to: 1) evaluate online drivers license and REAL ID renewal : programs ...

What is the (Real Option) Value of a College Degree?

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey R. Stokes

2013-01-01

The value of a college degree is often quantified as the difference in earnings between those with and without a degree. The research presented here operationalizes this idea in two important ways. First, since future income and tuition are uncertain, a contingent claims model is developed and the appropriate discount rate for valuing future earnings is, therefore, endogenized given an economy that does not permit arbitrage. Second, the model is sensitive to the valuation of the real option t...

Real-time Alarm Monitoring System for Detecting Driver Fatigue in Wireless Areas

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Rongrong Fu

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to develop a real-time alarm monitoring system that can detect the fatigue driving state through wireless communication. The drivers’ electroencephalogram (EEG signals were recorded from occipital electrodes. Seven EEG rhythms with different frequency bands as gamma, hbeta, beta, sigma, alpha, theta and delta waves were extracted. They were simultaneously assessed using relative operating characteristic (ROC curves and grey relational analysis to select one as the fatigue feature. The research results showed that the performance of theta wave was the best one. Therefore, theta wave was used as fatigue feature in the following alarm device. The real-time alarm monitoring system based on the result has been developed, once the threshold was settled by using the data of the first ten minutes driving period. The developed system can detect driver fatigue and give alarm to indicate the onset of fatigue automatically.

Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

2014-01-01

In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system. - Highlights: • Regulatory frameworks for efficient and timely transmission expansions are designed. • Irreversibility and uncertainty of transmission investment is properly accounted for. • Response of network investors to regulatory incentives is quantitatively established

Cost-effective design of ringwall storage hybrid power plants: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weibel, Sebastian; Madlener, Reinhard

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Economic viability, optimal size, and siting of a hybrid ringwall hydro power plant. • Real options analysis for optimal investment timing and stochastic storage volumes. • Stochastic PV and solar power production affects optimal size of the storage device. • Monte Carlo simulation is used for wind/solar power, el. price, and investment cost. • Numerical computations for two different hybrid ringwall storage plant scenarios. - Abstract: We study the economic viability and optimal sizing and siting of a hybrid plant that combines a ringwall hydro storage system with wind and solar power plants (ringwall storage hybrid power plant, RSHPP). A real options model is introduced to analyze the economics of an onshore RSHPP, and in particular of the varying storage volume in light of the stochastic character of wind and solar power, as well as the optimal investment timing under uncertainty. In fact, many uncertainties arise in such a project. Energy production is determined by the stochastic character of wind and solar power, and affects the optimal size of the storage device. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the following sources of uncertainty: (i) wind intensity and solar irradiation; (ii) future electricity price; and (iii) investment costs. The results yield the optimal size of the storage device; the energy market on which the operator should sell the electricity generated; numerical examples for two different RSHPP scenarios; and a real options model for analyzing the opportunity to defer the project investment and thus to exploit the value of waiting

Field deployment to quantify the value of real-time information by integrating driver routing decisions and route assignment strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-05-01

Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) have been proposed as a mechanism to generate and : distribute real-time travel information to drivers for the purpose of improving travel experience : represented by experienced travel time and enhancing ...

Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

Science.gov (United States)

Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

2014-01-01

The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muche, Thomas

2009-01-01

Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2013-01-01

The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lin, Tyrone T. [Department of International Business, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Road, Shou-Feng, Hualien 974, Taiwan (China)]. E-mail: tjlin@mail.ndhu.edu.tw; Ko, C.-C. [Department of International Trade, Jin Wen Institute of Technology, Taiwan (China); Yeh, H.-N. [Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan (China)

2007-04-15

This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions.

Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Ko, C.-C.; Yeh, H.-N.

2007-01-01

This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Real options model for wind projects considering investment timing and sizing. • Introducing a capacity constraint in the optimisation. • Addressing several uncertainty factors while still providing analytical solution. • Comparative policy analysis of investment incentives from different support schemes. • Improved quantification of trade-off between fast deployment and large projects. - Abstract: A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment of smaller projects and slower deployment of larger projects is neglected using traditional net present value approaches. In the analysis of such trade-off, previous real options studies did not consider a capacity constraint, which is here shown to decrease the significance of the effect. The impact on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes.

ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

Science.gov (United States)

Domercant, Jean Charles

The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

“Let’s Wait and See!” The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

2013-01-01

We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

In-car countermeasures open window and music revisited on the real road: popular but hardly effective against driver sleepiness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schwarz, J.F.A.; Ingre, M.; Fors, C.; Anund, A.; Kecklund, L.G.; Taillard, J.; Philip, P.; Äkerstedt, T.

2012-01-01

This study investigated the effects of two very commonly used countermeasures against driver sleepiness, opening the window and listening to music, on subjective and physiological sleepiness measures during real road driving. In total, 24 individuals participated in the study. Sixteen participants

The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

Science.gov (United States)

We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

Renewable energy policy options for Abu Dhabi: Drivers and barriers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mezher, Toufic; Dawelbait, Gihan; Abbas, Zeina

2012-01-01

Climate change and fossil fuel depletion are the main drivers for the recent focus on Renewable Energy (RE) resources. However, since the high cost of RE technologies is the main obstacle facing the diffusion of RE power generation, economic and political intervention is inevitable. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE) population and economic growth are the main causes of a sharp increase of energy demand. Two key related factors highlight the need to establish a RE sector: first the UAE has one of the highest carbon footprint in the world and second, the rate of depletion of its main energy generation resource – fossil fuel. In this study, we present a review of overall policies in sixty-one countries, focusing on their efforts to adopt RE resources in the power sector, and on their implementation of fundamental policies implemented. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability to Abu Dhabi UAE of the main RE policies implemented worldwide. As a result of our analysis, we recommend the implementation of a mixed policy of Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) and the Quota system for RE electricity generation in order for the UAE to meet its 7% target by 2020. - Highlights: ► Comprehensive review of renewable energy policy mechanisms. ► Summarizes the renewable energy policy adoptions, targets, and installed capacity in many countries. ► Gives recommendations on renewable energy policy options for Abu Dhabi, an oil rich country.

Visual behaviour analysis and driver cognitive model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baujon, J.; Basset, M.; Gissinger, G.L. [Mulhouse Univ., (France). MIPS/MIAM Lab.

2001-07-01

Recent studies on driver behaviour have shown that perception - mainly visual but also proprioceptive perception - plays a key role in the ''driver-vehicle-road'' system and so considerably affects the driver's decision making. Within the framework of the behaviour analysis and studies low-cost system (BASIL), this paper presents a correlative, qualitative and quantitative study, comparing the information given by visual perception and by the trajectory followed. This information will help to obtain a cognitive model of the Rasmussen type according to different driver classes. Many experiments in real driving situations have been carried out for different driver classes and for a given trajectory profile, using a test vehicle and innovative, specially designed, real-time tools, such as the vision system or the positioning module. (orig.)

“Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

2013-01-01

We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

Driver options and burn cycle selection based on power reactor considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehst, D.A.

1983-01-01

Reactor implications for noninductive current drive are presented based on a number of studies. First, the lower hybrid driver for the STARFIRE reactor is discussed and the disadvantages of this driver are reviewed. Next, the results of an extensive search for a better current driver are presented. A large number of alternatives were compared in a common context, the DEMO reactor, in order to examine their suitability on a standard basis. Finally, the methodology of a study, currently in progress, is described. The goals of this last study are to compare tokamak reactor designs optimized for operation under different burn cycles, in order to assess the actual benefits and costs of pulsed versus steady-state operation. (author)

Driver options and burn-cycle selection based on power-reactor considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehst, D.A.

1983-04-01

Reactor implications for noninductive current drive are presented based on a number of studies. First, the lower hybrid driver for the STARFIRE reactor is discussed and the disadvantages of this driver are reviewed. Next, the results of an extensive search for a better current driver are presented. A large number of alternatives were compared in a common context, the DEMO reactor, in order to examine their suitability on a standard basis. Finally, the methodology of a study, currently in progress, is described. The goals of this last study are to compare tokamak reactor designs optimized for operation under different burn cycles, in order to assess the actual benefits and costs of pulsed versus steady-state operation

The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

2013-09-30

We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

The value of product flexibility in nuclear hydrogen technologies: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

2009-01-01

Previous economic studies of nuclear hydrogen technologies focused on levelized costs without accounting for risks and uncertainties faced by potential investors. To address some of these risks and uncertainties, we used real options theory to assess the profitability of three nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to represent the uncertainty in hydrogen and electricity prices. The model computes both the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from the production plant. It also quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production. Under these assumptions, we conclude that investors will find significant value in the capability to switch plant output between electricity and hydrogen. (author)

A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria

OpenAIRE

Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris

2012-01-01

This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numer...

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Havlíček

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

Fusion of optimized indicators from Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) for driver drowsiness detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Daza, Iván García; Bergasa, Luis Miguel; Bronte, Sebastián; Yebes, Jose Javier; Almazán, Javier; Arroyo, Roberto

2014-01-09

This paper presents a non-intrusive approach for monitoring driver drowsiness using the fusion of several optimized indicators based on driver physical and driving performance measures, obtained from ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant Systems) in simulated conditions. The paper is focused on real-time drowsiness detection technology rather than on long-term sleep/awake regulation prediction technology. We have developed our own vision system in order to obtain robust and optimized driver indicators able to be used in simulators and future real environments. These indicators are principally based on driver physical and driving performance skills. The fusion of several indicators, proposed in the literature, is evaluated using a neural network and a stochastic optimization method to obtain the best combination. We propose a new method for ground-truth generation based on a supervised Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). An extensive evaluation of indicators, derived from trials over a third generation simulator with several test subjects during different driving sessions, was performed. The main conclusions about the performance of single indicators and the best combinations of them are included, as well as the future works derived from this study.

Fusion of Optimized Indicators from Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS for Driver Drowsiness Detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iván G. Daza

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a non-intrusive approach for monitoring driver drowsiness using the fusion of several optimized indicators based on driver physical and driving performance measures, obtained from ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant Systems in simulated conditions. The paper is focused on real-time drowsiness detection technology rather than on long-term sleep/awake regulation prediction technology. We have developed our own vision system in order to obtain robust and optimized driver indicators able to be used in simulators and future real environments. These indicators are principally based on driver physical and driving performance skills. The fusion of several indicators, proposed in the literature, is evaluated using a neural network and a stochastic optimization method to obtain the best combination. We propose a new method for ground-truth generation based on a supervised Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS. An extensive evaluation of indicators, derived from trials over a third generation simulator with several test subjects during different driving sessions, was performed. The main conclusions about the performance of single indicators and the best combinations of them are included, as well as the future works derived from this study.

Real-ear acoustical characteristics of impulse sound generated by golf drivers and the estimated risk to hearing: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Fei; Bardsley, Barry

2014-01-21

This study investigated real-ear acoustical characteristics in terms of the sound pressure levels (SPLs) and frequency responses in situ generated from golf club drivers at impact with a golf ball. The risk of hearing loss caused by hitting a basket of golf balls using various drivers was then estimated. Cross-sectional study. The three driver clubs were chosen on the basis of reflection of the commonality and modern technology of the clubs. The participants were asked to choose the clubs in a random order and hit six two-piece range golf balls with each club. The experiment was carried out at a golf driving range in South Wales, UK. 19 male amateur golfers volunteered to take part in the study, with an age range of 19-54 years. The frequency responses and peak SPLs in situ of the transient sound generated from the club at impact were recorded bilaterally and simultaneously using the GN Otometric Freefit wireless real-ear measurement system. A swing speed radar system was also used to investigate the relationship between noise level and swing speed. Different clubs generated significantly different real-ear acoustical characteristics in terms of SPL and frequency responses. However, they did not differ significantly between the ears. No significant correlation was found between the swing speed and noise intensity. On the basis of the SPLs measured in the present study, the percentage of daily noise exposure for hitting a basket of golf balls using the drivers described above was less than 2%. The immediate danger of noise-induced hearing loss for amateur golfers is quite unlikely. However, it may be dangerous to hearing if the noise level generated by the golf clubs exceeded 116 dBA.

Physics at an upgraded Fermilab proton driver

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Geer, S.; /Fermilab

2005-07-01

In 2004 the Fermilab Long Range Planning Committee identified a new high intensity Proton Driver as an attractive option for the future, primarily motivated by the recent exciting developments in neutrino physics. Over the last few months a physics study has developed the physics case for the Fermilab Proton Driver. The potential physics opportunities are discussed.

Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Vrande, van de V.J.A.; Chesbrough, H.

2008-01-01

Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new

32 CFR 644.168 - Exercise of options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Exercise of options. 644.168 Section 644.168... ESTATE HANDBOOK Acquisition Procurement of Options Prior to Real Estate Directives (military) § 644.168 Exercise of options. Upon issuance of a real estate directive for acquisition of the optioned real property...

49 CFR 1572.401 - Fee collection options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Fee collection options. 1572.401 Section 1572.401 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION... ASSESSMENTS Fees for Security Threat Assessments for Hazmat Drivers § 1572.401 Fee collection options. (a...

What is the best way to enter Florida's real estate market in today's economy? : This may serve as a simple guide which offers options for a startup real estate company to enter any real estate market

OpenAIRE

Bryan, Paul

2011-01-01

P&I International real estate (PIIRE for short) is a real estate company which left the Florida real estate market in 2006. PIIRE is now seeking the best method to re-enter the Florida’s real estate market within the near future. The owners are seeking the best method to re-establish their real estate business in Florida. At this point the location in Florida has not yet been determined. The determining factors include financing options, business type entry mode, and governmental issues. ...

Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

U.S. DOE driver development for ICF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sluyter, M.M.

1995-01-01

The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) supported Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) Program is to produce pure fusion ignition with fusion yields of 200 to 1000 millions of joules, which could find several applications in the defence and in the electric power generation. The National Ignition Facility will operate in both direct and indirect driver modes, with a glass laser driver. However two other options have been developed to increase the energy efficiency: the Light Ion Pulsed Power program and the NIKE KrF laser. Heavy ion drivers are also investigated -Abstract only-. (TEC)

Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

2006-01-01

...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

Insert earphone calibration for hear-through options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmann, Pablo F.; Christensen, Flemming; Hammershøi, Dorte

2013-01-01

A hear-through option in earphones exists when the earphone has a microphone mounted on the outside of the earphone thus allowing the user to hear the surroundings - or not. Although routing the microphone signal to the earphone driver is relatively straightforward, the physical presence of the e......A hear-through option in earphones exists when the earphone has a microphone mounted on the outside of the earphone thus allowing the user to hear the surroundings - or not. Although routing the microphone signal to the earphone driver is relatively straightforward, the physical presence...... of the earphone will modify the natural acoustics of the external ear, and some form of compensation is required to make the microphone-earphone combination acoustically transparent. Here we derive a general expression for the design target response of insert earphones with hear-through options emphasizing...

Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects Las opciones reales como metodología alternativa en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raúl Enrique Aristizábal Velásquez

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making. Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented. A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method. Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options.Este trabajo busca ampliar la aplicabilidad de la metodología de valoración de proyectos de inversión por medio de opciones reales como un elemento fundamental al momento de tomar una decisión de si se debe invertir o no. Se hace un recorrido por las técnicas tradicionales para valorar un proyecto de inversión y se plantean los vacíos que estos dejan, con respecto a proyectos en los que su principal característica es la incertidumbre. Se realiza un paralelo entre las opciones financieras y las opciones reales que per- mita valorar, utilizando la metodología de los árboles binomiales. Por último, se elabora un caso del que se plantea valorar una opción de espera y una opción de expandir de manera conjunta en el sector de la construcción.

The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keppo, J.

2003-01-01

In this paper we extend the real option theory to consider the situation of a large producer and we employ the model to electricity markets. This is important because many producers in these markets affect the market supply and, therefore, also the electricity price. This production price effect influences not only on the assets that the energy company owns but also on its investment opportunities. We show that this production's price effect has to be considered in the investment analysis if the company is not able to hedge the price effect in the financial markets and if there is no competition on the investment opportunity. (author)

In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

2011-01-01

This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

2015-01-01

In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

2018-03-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

2007-01-01

Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD 3 ) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD 3 programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD 3 effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD 3 . In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD 3 is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD 3 programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD 3

Reducing the Deficit: Spending and Revenue Options

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-01

Airports 109Option 22 Increase Fees for Aviation Security 110Option 23 Eliminate Intercity Rail Subsidies 111Option 24 Eliminate the Transit Starts...productivity. Charging users—such as drivers on highways, air travelers , users of waterways, and so forth—for services they receive from federal...can travel at high speed through the water from a ship to land. The Marine Corps regards the EFV as essential for the conduct of amphibi- ous warfare

The relative importance of real-time in-cab and external feedback in managing fatigue in real-world commercial transport operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzharris, Michael; Liu, Sara; Stephens, Amanda N; Lenné, Michael G

2017-05-29

Real-time driver monitoring systems represent a solution to address key behavioral risks as they occur, particularly distraction and fatigue. The efficacy of these systems in real-world settings is largely unknown. This article has three objectives: (1) to document the incidence and duration of fatigue in real-world commercial truck-driving operations, (2) to determine the reduction, if any, in the incidence of fatigue episodes associated with providing feedback, and (3) to tease apart the relative contribution of in-cab warnings from 24/7 monitoring and feedback to employers. Data collected from a commercially available in-vehicle camera-based driver monitoring system installed in a commercial truck fleet operating in Australia were analyzed. The real-time driver monitoring system makes continuous assessments of driver drowsiness based on eyelid position and other factors. Data were collected in a baseline period where no feedback was provided to drivers. Real-time feedback to drivers then occurred via in-cab auditory and haptic warnings, which were further enhanced by direct feedback by company management when fatigue events were detected by external 24/7 monitors. Fatigue incidence rates and their timing of occurrence across the three time periods were compared. Relative to no feedback being provided to drivers when fatigue events were detected, in-cab warnings resulted in a 66% reduction in fatigue events, with a 95% reduction achieved by the real-time provision of direct feedback in addition to in-cab warnings (p safety culture of the company in terms of how the information is used. Data were analysed on a per-truck trip basis, and the findings are indicative of fatigue events in a large-scale commercial transport fleet. Future research ought to account for individual driver performance, which was not possible with the available data in this retrospective analysis. Evidence that real-time driver monitoring feedback is effective in reducing fatigue events is

 Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom

) to exercise real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The results are robust after controlling for the size of the firms and their sales in the Euro-area. The results go beyond what...

Real options valuation and optimization of energy assets

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Matthew

In this thesis we present algorithms for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities, hydro-electric power plants and thermal power generators in competitive markets. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial-integro-differential equations (PIDEs) for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of all types of facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time-dependent, mean-reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real energy assets. For natural gas storage facilities these characteristics include: working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates and cycling limitations. For thermal power plants relevant operational characteristics include variable start-up times and costs, control response time lags, minimum generating levels, nonlinear output functions, structural limitations on ramp rates, and minimum up/down time restrictions. For hydro-electric units, head effects and environmental constraints are addressed. We illustrate the models with numerical examples of a gas storage facility, a hydro-electric pump storage facility and a thermal power plant. This PIDE framework is the first in the literature to achieve second order accuracy in characterizing the operating states of hydro-electric and hydro-thermal power plants. The continuous state space representation derived in this thesis can therefore achieve far greater realism in terms of operating state specification than any other method in the literature to date. This thesis is also the first and only to allow for any continuous time jump diffusion processes in order to account for price spikes.

Development of Data Acquisition Card Driver for ICRH System on EAST

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Daming; Luo, Jiarong; Zhao, Yanping; Qin, Chengming

2008-04-01

Presented in this paper is the development of the driver for the data acquisition card with a peripheral component interconnection (PCI) local bus on the ion cyclotron range of frequency heating (ICRH) system. The driver is mainly aimed at the embedded VxWorks system (real-time operating system) which is widely used in various fields of real-time systems. An efficient way is employed to develop this driver, which will advance the real-time control of the ICRH system on the experimental advanced superconductor tokamak (EAST). The driver is designed using the TORNADO integrated development environment (IDE), and implemented in C plus language. The details include the hardware configuration, analogue/digital (A/D) and digital/analogue (D/A) conversion, input and output (I/O) operation of the driver to support over five cards. The data acquisition card can be manipulated in a low-level program and meet the requirements of A/D conversion and D/A outputs.

Driver competence performance indicators using OTMR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassan EL Rashidy, R.A.

2016-07-01

The current practice for assessing driver competence performance is in-cab riding by driver managers. However, this paper investigates whether real-world driving data extracted from on-train monitoring recorders data (OTMR) can be used to assess the driver performance. A number of indicators were used to evaluate the drivers’ performance. These include: their use of the emergency bypass switch, the driver's reminder appliance as well as the driver’s reaction time. A study case illustrated the applicability of OTMR data to estimate the proposed indicators, which suggests that the indicators can be useful in the driver management system in addition to the current indicators. Furthermore, the proposed indicators could be used to tailor the driver training schemes up to their individual needs and evaluate their effectiveness. They could even be used for improving driver competence performance and reducing crash involvement by revealing potentially detrimental driving performance. (Author)

What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Alonso

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

Real-time transmission of work-related data of drivers as an element of fleet management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert MUHA

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The introduction of digital tachographs does not bring much novelty in terms of time limits for drivers involved in road transport, but rather narrows the space for workload restrictions abuse. Combined with the telematic systems (GNSS - Global Navigation Satellite System, which in addition to tracking bring a multitude of data on the vehicle, this device allows for a direct transmission of data on driver’s work in real time (the hours worked and rest-time used into the dispatch centre of the Carrier. The paper will present the importance of monitoring the driver’s activity and the observance of time limits for fleet management.

Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salvador Cruz Rambaud

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

Lane-changing model with dynamic consideration of driver's propensity

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Jianqiang; Zhang, Jinglei; Ban, Xuegang Jeff

2015-07-01

Lane-changing is the driver's selection result of the satisfaction degree in different lane driving conditions. There are many different factors influencing lane-changing behavior, such as diversity, randomicity and difficulty of measurement. So it is hard to accurately reflect the uncertainty of drivers' lane-changing behavior. As a result, the research of lane-changing models is behind that of car-following models. Driver's propensity is her/his emotion state or the corresponding preference of a decision or action toward the real objective traffic situations under the influence of various dynamic factors. It represents the psychological characteristics of the driver in the process of vehicle operation and movement. It is an important factor to influence lane-changing. In this paper, dynamic recognition of driver's propensity is considered during simulation based on its time-varying discipline and the analysis of the driver's psycho-physic characteristics. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to quantify the hierarchy of driver's dynamic lane-changing decision-making process, especially the influence of the propensity. The model is validated using real data. Test results show that the developed lane-changing model with the dynamic consideration of a driver's time-varying propensity and the AHP method are feasible and with improved accuracy.

Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We calculate the real option value of flexibility from CHP-thermal storage. • Stochastic optimal feedback control problem is solved under uncertain market prices. • Efficient real-time numerical solutions combine simulation, regression and recursion. • Clear, interpretable feedback control maps are produced for each hour of the day. • We give a realistic UK case study using projected market gas and electricity prices. - Abstract: In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions

Flexibility in using Diesel or biodiesel: an approach via real options; Flexibilidade na utilizacao de Diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem via opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goncalves, Edson Daniel Lopes [Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: edson@fgvmail.br; Ferreira, Leonardo Leandro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: leonardo.ferreira@petrobras.com.br

2008-09-15

This work will approach the bio diesel development as renewable source fuel in the Brazilian energetic matrix. Essentially, the utilization flexibility will be considered between the traditional petroleum origin Diesel and the vegetable origin Biodiesel. So, our target is the evaluation of the flexibility existent between those two fuels. A consideration will be made via real options, where the fuel choice for supplying is modelled as a an european options sequence. Those switch input real options attributes a value to the project and minimizes the risks associated to the energy offer shortage which is another recurrent problem inside our reality. At least, some comments will be made on the potential gain on the aggregate value for the Brazil, as a consequence of Diesel dependent road transportation.

Physics at a New Fermilab Proton Driver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geer, Steve

2005-01-01

In 2004 the Fermilab Long Range Planning Committee identified a new high intensity Proton Driver as an attractive option for the future, primarily motivated by the recent exciting developments in neutrino physics. The Fermilab Director has requested further development of the physics case for a new Fermilab Proton Driver, exploring both its ability to support a World class neutrino program, and the other physics opportunities it would provide. A physics study has been ongoing for the last 6 months. The emerging physics case will be presented.

Research on driver fatigue detection

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ting; Chen, Zhong; Ouyang, Chao

2018-03-01

Driver fatigue is one of the main causes of frequent traffic accidents. In this case, driver fatigue detection system has very important significance in avoiding traffic accidents. This paper presents a real-time method based on fusion of multiple facial features, including eye closure, yawn and head movement. The eye state is classified as being open or closed by a linear SVM classifier trained using HOG features of the detected eye. The mouth state is determined according to the width-height ratio of the mouth. The head movement is detected by head pitch angle calculated by facial landmark. The driver's fatigue state can be reasoned by the model trained by above features. According to experimental results, drive fatigue detection obtains an excellent performance. It indicates that the developed method is valuable for the application of avoiding traffic accidents caused by driver's fatigue.

Adaptive object placement for augmented reality use in driver assistance systems

OpenAIRE

Bordes, Lucie; Breckon, Toby P.; Katramados, Ioannis; Kheyrollahi, Alireza

2011-01-01

We present an approach for adaptive object placement for Augmented Reality (AR) use in driver assistance systems. Combined vanishing point and road surface detection enable the real-time adaptive emplacement of AR objects within a drivers' natural field of view for on-road information display. This work combines both automotive vision and multimedia production aspects of real-time visual engineering.

REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Casper Agaton

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Meade, Nigel; Fleten, Stein-Erik

2012-01-01

-in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher......This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable...... energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed...

The case for driver science in motorsport: a review and recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Potkanowicz, Edward S; Mendel, Ronald W

2013-07-01

When discussing sports and the athletes who participate in them, it has long been recognized that fitness is a prerequisite for optimal performance. The goal of training to improve fitness levels in athletes is ultimately to minimize the stress that the body experiences during competition. When it comes to the topic of racecar drivers, however, drivers and their trainers have largely been left to their own devices to figure out the stressors and the areas of specific training focus. Unfortunately, racecar drivers have battled the stereotype that they are not athletes, and with little regard for them as athletes, drivers are seldom the focus of scientific research related to their performance. Like the cars they drive, driver-athletes are complex, but from a physiological perspective. However, unlike the cars they drive, driver-athletes have not been examined, evaluated, and tweaked to the same degree. The purpose of this review is two-fold: first, by examining the available literature, to make the case for new research into the driver's role in the driver-car system (i.e. driver science) and the stresses experienced; second, to make the case for more extensive use of microtechnology in the real-time monitoring of driver-athletes. With the miniaturization of sensors and the advent of portable data storage devices, the prospect of quantifying the stresses unique to the driver are no longer as daunting, and the relative impossibility and difficulties associated with measuring the driver-athlete in real-time no longer need to be as challenging. Using microtechnology in the assessment of the driver-athlete and with a more public discussion and dissemination of information on the topic of driver science, the scientific community has the opportunity to quantify that which has been largely assumed and speculated. The current article will offer the following recommendations: first, rather than examining a singular physiological stressor, to examine the interaction of

Towards a real-time driver workload estimator: An on-the-road study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeuwen, P. van; Landman, R.; Buning, L.; Heffelaar, T.; Hogema, J.; Hemert, J.M. van; Winter, J. de; Happee, R.

2017-01-01

Driver distraction is a leading cause of crashes. The introduction of in-vehicle technology in the last decades has added support to the driving task. However, in-vehicle technologies and handheld electronic devices may also be a threat to driver safety due to information overload and distraction.

A novel algorithm for finding optimal driver nodes to target control complex networks and its applications for drug targets identification.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Wei-Feng; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Shi, Qian-Qian; Zhang, Cheng-Ming; Zeng, Tao; Chen, Luonan

2018-01-19

The advances in target control of complex networks not only can offer new insights into the general control dynamics of complex systems, but also be useful for the practical application in systems biology, such as discovering new therapeutic targets for disease intervention. In many cases, e.g. drug target identification in biological networks, we usually require a target control on a subset of nodes (i.e., disease-associated genes) with minimum cost, and we further expect that more driver nodes consistent with a certain well-selected network nodes (i.e., prior-known drug-target genes). Therefore, motivated by this fact, we pose and address a new and practical problem called as target control problem with objectives-guided optimization (TCO): how could we control the interested variables (or targets) of a system with the optional driver nodes by minimizing the total quantity of drivers and meantime maximizing the quantity of constrained nodes among those drivers. Here, we design an efficient algorithm (TCOA) to find the optional driver nodes for controlling targets in complex networks. We apply our TCOA to several real-world networks, and the results support that our TCOA can identify more precise driver nodes than the existing control-fucus approaches. Furthermore, we have applied TCOA to two bimolecular expert-curate networks. Source code for our TCOA is freely available from http://sysbio.sibcb.ac.cn/cb/chenlab/software.htm or https://github.com/WilfongGuo/guoweifeng . In the previous theoretical research for the full control, there exists an observation and conclusion that the driver nodes tend to be low-degree nodes. However, for target control the biological networks, we find interestingly that the driver nodes tend to be high-degree nodes, which is more consistent with the biological experimental observations. Furthermore, our results supply the novel insights into how we can efficiently target control a complex system, and especially many evidences on the

In-car countermeasures open window and music revisited on the real road: popular but hardly effective against driver sleepiness.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Johanna F A; Ingre, Michael; Fors, Carina; Anund, Anna; Kecklund, Göran; Taillard, Jacques; Philip, Pierre; Åkerstedt, Torbjörn

2012-10-01

This study investigated the effects of two very commonly used countermeasures against driver sleepiness, opening the window and listening to music, on subjective and physiological sleepiness measures during real road driving. In total, 24 individuals participated in the study. Sixteen participants received intermittent 10-min intervals of: (i) open window (2 cm opened); and (ii) listening to music, during both day and night driving on an open motorway. Both subjective sleepiness and physiological sleepiness (blink duration) was estimated to be significantly reduced when subjects listened to music, but the effect was only minor compared with the pronounced effects of night driving and driving duration. Open window had no attenuating effect on either sleepiness measure. No significant long-term effects beyond the actual countermeasure application intervals occurred, as shown by comparison to the control group (n = 8). Thus, despite their popularity, opening the window and listening to music cannot be recommended as sole countermeasures against driver sleepiness. © 2012 European Sleep Research Society.

What makes and what does not make a real option? A study of equity shares in international joint ventures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cuypers, I.R.P.; Martin, Xavier

2010-01-01

This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by

Surgical inpatient satisfaction: what are the real drivers?

Science.gov (United States)

Danforth, Rachel M; Pitt, Henry A; Flanagan, Mindy E; Brewster, Benjamin D; Brand, Elizabeth W; Frankel, Richard M

2014-08-01

Inpatient satisfaction is a key element of hospital pay-for-performance programs. Communication and pain management are known to influence results, but additional factors may affect satisfaction scores. We tested the hypothesis that patient factors and outcome parameters not considered previously are clinically important drivers of inpatient satisfaction. Medical records were reviewed for 1,340 surgical patients who returned nationally standardized inpatient satisfaction questionnaires. These patients were managed by 41 surgeons in seven specialties at two academic medical centers. Thirty-two parameters based on the patient, surgeon, outcomes, and survey were measured. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. Inpatients rated their overall experience favorably 75.7% of the time. Less-satisfied patients were more likely to be female, younger, less ill, taking outpatient narcotics, and admitted via the emergency department (all P expectations of patients with cancer, and postoperative complications are important and clinically relevant drivers of surgical inpatient satisfaction. Programs to manage expectations of cancer patient expectations and decrease postoperative morbidity should improve surgical inpatient satisfaction. Further efforts to risk-adjust patient satisfaction scores should be undertaken. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

2010-01-01

The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, T.

2004-01-01

The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

Assessing older drivers: a primary care protocol to evaluate driving safety risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Murden, Robert A; Unroe, Kathleen

2005-08-01

Most articles on elder drivers offer either general advice, or review testing protocols that divide drivers into two distinct groups: safe or unsafe. We believe it is unreasonable to expect any testing to fully separate drivers into just these two mutually exclusive groups, so we offer a protocol for a more practical approach. This protocol can be applied by primary care physicians. We review the justification for the many steps of this protocol, which have branches that lead to identifying drivers as low risk, high risk (for accidents) or needing further evaluation. Options for further evaluation are provided.

THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adhy Listya Paramitha

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

Combining coordination of motion actuators with driver steering interaction.

Science.gov (United States)

Tagesson, Kristoffer; Laine, Leo; Jacobson, Bengt

2015-01-01

A new method is suggested for coordination of vehicle motion actuators; where driver feedback and capabilities become natural elements in the prioritization. The method is using a weighted least squares control allocation formulation, where driver characteristics can be added as virtual force constraints. The approach is in particular suitable for heavy commercial vehicles that in general are over actuated. The method is applied, in a specific use case, by running a simulation of a truck applying automatic braking on a split friction surface. Here the required driver steering angle, to maintain the intended direction, is limited by a constant threshold. This constant is automatically accounted for when balancing actuator usage in the method. Simulation results show that the actual required driver steering angle can be expected to match the set constant well. Furthermore, the stopping distance is very much affected by this set capability of the driver to handle the lateral disturbance, as expected. In general the capability of the driver to handle disturbances should be estimated in real-time, considering driver mental state. By using the method it will then be possible to estimate e.g. stopping distance implied from this. The setup has the potential of even shortening the stopping distance, when the driver is estimated as active, this compared to currently available systems. The approach is feasible for real-time applications and requires only measurable vehicle quantities for parameterization. Examples of other suitable applications in scope of the method would be electronic stability control, lateral stability control at launch and optimal cornering arbitration.

Executive report : toll roads, toll rates, and driver behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

State and federal research has examined toll roads and attempted to identify methods to make toll roads a more attractive option for drivers. Researchers examined various views of toll road transactions and concluded: : Truckers and trucking comp...

An Application of the Real Options Method to the Valuation of a License to Operate 3G Mobile Phone Service in Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Stille

2010-10-01

Full Text Available We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

Driver Drowsiness Warning System Using Visual Information for Both Diurnal and Nocturnal Illumination Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flores MarcoJavier

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Every year, traffic accidents due to human errors cause increasing amounts of deaths and injuries globally. To help reduce the amount of fatalities, in the paper presented here, a new module for Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS which deals with automatic driver drowsiness detection based on visual information and Artificial Intelligence is presented. The aim of this system is to locate, track, and analyze both the drivers face and eyes to compute a drowsiness index, where this real-time system works under varying light conditions (diurnal and nocturnal driving. Examples of different images of drivers taken in a real vehicle are shown to validate the algorithms used.

A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

2008-01-01

This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

S-Band POSIX Device Drivers for RTEMS

Science.gov (United States)

Lux, James P.; Lang, Minh; Peters, Kenneth J.; Taylor, Gregory H.

2011-01-01

This is a set of POSIX device driver level abstractions in the RTEMS RTOS (Real-Time Executive for Multiprocessor Systems real-time operating system) to SBand radio hardware devices that have been instantiated in an FPGA (field-programmable gate array). These include A/D (analog-to-digital) sample capture, D/A (digital-to-analog) sample playback, PLL (phase-locked-loop) tuning, and PWM (pulse-width-modulation)-controlled gain. This software interfaces to Sband radio hardware in an attached Xilinx Virtex-2 FPGA. It uses plug-and-play device discovery to map memory to device IDs. Instead of interacting with hardware devices directly, using direct-memory mapped access at the application level, this driver provides an application programming interface (API) offering that easily uses standard POSIX function calls. This simplifies application programming, enables portability, and offers an additional level of protection to the hardware. There are three separate device drivers included in this package: sband_device (ADC capture and DAC playback), pll_device (RF front end PLL tuning), and pwm_device (RF front end AGC control).

EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J.

2004-01-01

This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as ...

Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

2017-12-01

In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.

A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

2011-01-01

Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

6 CFR 37.19 - Machine readable technology on the driver's license or identification card.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Machine readable technology on the driver's..., Verification, and Card Issuance Requirements § 37.19 Machine readable technology on the driver's license or identification card. For the machine readable portion of the REAL ID driver's license or identification card...

Drowsiness detection by thoracic effort signal analysis in real driving environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrígue-Ibáñez, N; García-González, M A; Fernández-Chimeno, M; Ramos-Castro, J

2011-01-01

Detection of drowsiness while driving is a leading objective in advanced driver assistance systems. This work presents a new index to assess the alertness state of drivers based on the respiratory dynamics derived from an inductive band. More than 100 hours of driving in real environments from 13 healthy subjects were analyzed. The proposed method has a sensitivity of 93.7% and specificity of 86.3% in detecting full awake drivers while it has a sensitivity of 83.1% and specificity of 95.3% in detecting drowsy drivers. The results show that the proposed index may be promising to assess the alertness state of real drivers.

Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

2001-11-01

Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

Systems analysis for modular versus multi-beam HIF drivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meier, W.R.; Logan, B.G.

2004-01-01

Previous modeling for HIF drivers concentrated on designs in which 100 or more beams are grouped in an array and accelerated through a common set of induction cores. The total beam energy required by the target is achieved by the combination of final ion energy, current per beam and number of beams. Economic scaling favors a large number of small (∼1 cm dia.) beams. An alternative architecture has now been investigated, which we refer to as a modular driver. In this case, the driver is subdivided into many (>10) independent accelerators with one or many beams each. A key objective of the modular driver approach is to be able to demonstrate all aspects of the driver (source-to-target) by building a single, lower cost module compared to a full-scale, multi-beam driver. We consider and compare several design options for the modular driver including single-beam designs with solenoid instead of quadrupole magnets in order to transport the required current per module in a single beam, solenoid/quad combinations, and multi-beam, all-quad designs. The drivers are designed to meet the requirements of the hybrid target, which can accommodate a larger spot size than the distributed radiator target that was used for the Robust Point Design. We compare the multi-beam and modular driver configuration for a variety and assumptions and identify key technology advances needed for the modular design

Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-30

14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

Study on driver model for hybrid truck based on driving simulator experimental results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dam Hoang Phuc

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a proposed car-following driver model taking into account some features of both the compensatory and anticipatory model representing the human pedal operation has been verified by driving simulator experiments with several real drivers. The comparison between computer simulations performed by determined model parameters with the experimental results confirm the correctness of this mathematical driver model and identified model parameters. Then the driver model is joined to a hybrid vehicle dynamics model and the moderate car following maneuver simulations with various driver parameters are conducted to investigate influences of driver parameters on vehicle dynamics response and fuel economy. Finally, major driver parameters involved in the longitudinal control of drivers are clarified. Keywords: Driver model, Driver-vehicle closed-loop system, Car Following, Driving simulator/hybrid electric vehicle (B1

Incorporating antenna beamswitching technique into drivers for IEEE802.11 WLAN devices

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Mofolo, M

2015-11-23

Full Text Available the beamswitching technique for switched parasitic array (SPA) and electronically steerable parasitic array radiator (ESPAR) antennas in the drivers for IEEE802.11 WLAN devices. The modifications of the open source drivers (ath5k and ath9k) to enable real...

Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marreco, Juliana de Moraes; Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia

2006-01-01

This paper presents a valuation study of operational flexibility in the complex Brazilian Power System. Thermopower plants represent operational flexibility for the national system operator provided they can be dispatched in dry periods to supply part of the load when reservoir waters are too low. Deficit costs can be avoided as a result. We have adopted a real options approach to calculate the fair value of a financial subsidy to be paid to thermal generators for their availability to the system. A financial subsidy is mandatory for their economic feasibility and, therefore, for increased thermopower capacity in the Brazilian Power System. This is why this policy is currently being studied by Brazil's federal government. In order to illustrate our modeling we have run the model for the southeast subsystem. We found a flexibility value of US$4.52 billion, which represents US$497/MW per year. This means that a 100 MW thermopower plant should receive US$49,700 for each year of its economic lifetime as a fair premium incentive to investments

A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

A real-life example of choosing an inherently safer process option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Study, Karen

2007-01-01

While choosing an inherently safer alternative may seem straightforward, sometimes what seems to be the most obvious alternative may not provide the best risk reduction. The process designer must maintain a broad perspective to be able to recognize all potential hazards when evaluating design options. All aspects of operation such as start-up, shut-down, utility failure, as well as normal operation should be considered. Choosing the inherently safer option is best accomplished early in the option selection phase of a project; however, recycle back to the option selection phase may be needed if an option is not thoroughly evaluated early in the process. In this paper, a project to supply ammonia to a catalytic reactor will be reviewed. During the course of the project, an 'inherently safer' alternative was selected and later discarded due to issues uncovered during the detail design phase. The final option chosen will be compared to (1) the original design and (2) the initial 'inherently safer' alternative. The final option was inherently safer than both the original design and the initial 'inherently safer' alternative even though the design team initially believed that it would not be

Visualization drivers for Geant4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beretvas, Andy

2005-01-01

This document is on Geant 4 visualization tools (drivers), evaluating pros and cons of each option, including recommendations on which tools to support at Fermilab for different applications. Four visualization drivers are evaluated. They re OpenGL, HepRep, DAWN and VRML. They all have good features, OpenGL provides graphic output with out an intermediate file. HepRep provides menus to assist the user. DAWN provides high quality plots and even for large files produces output quickly. VRML uses the smallest disk space for intermediate files. Large experiments at Fermilab will want to write their own display. They should proceed to make this display graphics independent. Medium experiment will probably want to use HepRep because of it's menu support. Smaller scale experiments will want to use OpenGL in the spirit of having immediate response, good quality output and keeping things simple

Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

2006-07-01

This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

Wireless and wearable EEG system for evaluating driver vigilance.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Chin-Teng; Chuang, Chun-Hsiang; Huang, Chih-Sheng; Tsai, Shu-Fang; Lu, Shao-Wei; Chen, Yen-Hsuan; Ko, Li-Wei

2014-04-01

Brain activity associated with attention sustained on the task of safe driving has received considerable attention recently in many neurophysiological studies. Those investigations have also accurately estimated shifts in drivers' levels of arousal, fatigue, and vigilance, as evidenced by variations in their task performance, by evaluating electroencephalographic (EEG) changes. However, monitoring the neurophysiological activities of automobile drivers poses a major measurement challenge when using a laboratory-oriented biosensor technology. This work presents a novel dry EEG sensor based mobile wireless EEG system (referred to herein as Mindo) to monitor in real time a driver's vigilance status in order to link the fluctuation of driving performance with changes in brain activities. The proposed Mindo system incorporates the use of a wireless and wearable EEG device to record EEG signals from hairy regions of the driver conveniently. Additionally, the proposed system can process EEG recordings and translate them into the vigilance level. The study compares the system performance between different regression models. Moreover, the proposed system is implemented using JAVA programming language as a mobile application for online analysis. A case study involving 15 study participants assigned a 90 min sustained-attention driving task in an immersive virtual driving environment demonstrates the reliability of the proposed system. Consistent with previous studies, power spectral analysis results confirm that the EEG activities correlate well with the variations in vigilance. Furthermore, the proposed system demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the driver's vigilance in real time.

Progress in heavy-ion drivers for inertial fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedman, A.; Bangerter, R.O.; Herrmannsfeldt, W.B.

1994-01-01

Heavy-ion induction accelerators are being developed as fusion drivers for ICF power production in the US Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) program, in the Office of Fusion Energy of the US Department of Energy. In addition, they represent an attractive driver option for a high-yield microfusion facility for defense research. This paper describes recent progress in induction drivers for Heavy-Ion Fusion (HIF), and plans for future work. It presents research aimed at developing drivers having reduced cost and size, specifically advanced induction linacs and recirculating induction accelerators (recirculators). The goals and design of the Elise accelerator being built at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL), as the first stage of the ILSE (Induction Linac Systems Experiments) program, are described. Elise will accelerate, for the first time, space-charge-dominated ion beams which are of full driver scale in line-charge density and diameter. Elise will be a platform on which the critical beam manipulations of the induction approach can be explored. An experimental program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) exploring the recirculator principle on a small scale is described in some detail; it is expected that these studies will result ultimately in an operational prototype recirculating induction accelerator. In addition, other elements of the US HIF program are described

Challenges for Older Drivers in Urban, Suburban, and Rural Settings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rashmi P. Payyanadan

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Along with age-related factors, geographical settings—urban, suburban, and rural areas—also contribute to the differences in fatal crashes among older drivers. These differences in crash outcomes might be attributed to the various driving challenges faced by older drivers residing in different locations. To understand these challenges from the perspective of the older driver, a focus group study was conducted with drivers 65 and older from urban, suburban, and rural settings. Guided-group interviews were used to assess driving challenges, mobility options, opportunities for driver support systems (DSS, and alternate transportation needs. Content analysis of the interview responses resulted in four categories representing common challenges faced by older drivers across the settings: behavior of other drivers on the road, placement of road signs, reduced visibility of road signs due to age-related decline, and difficulties using in-vehicle technologies. Six categories involved location-specific challenges such as heavy traffic situations for urban and suburban drivers, and multi-destination trips for rural drivers. Countermeasures implemented by older drivers to address these challenges primarily involved route selection and avoidance. Technological advances of DSS systems provide a unique opportunity to support the information needs for route selection and avoidance preferences of drivers. Using the content analysis results, a framework was built to determine additional and modified DSS features to meet the specific challenges of older drivers in urban, suburban, and rural settings. These findings suggest that there is heterogeneity in the driving challenges and preferences of older drivers based on their location. Consequently, DSS technologies and vehicle automation need to be tailored to not only meet the driving safety and mobility needs of older drivers as a population, but also to their driving environment.

EPICS: operating system independent device/driver support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraimer, M.R.

2003-01-01

Originally EPICS input/output controllers (IOCs) were only supported on VME-based systems running the vxWorks operating system. Now IOCs are supported on many systems: vxWorks, RTEMS, Solaris, HPUX, Linux, WIN32, and Darwin. A challenge is to provide operating-system-independent device and driver support. This paper presents some techniques for providing such support. EPICS (Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System) is a set of software tools, libraries, and applications developed collaboratively and used worldwide to create distributed, real-time control systems for scientific instruments such as particle accelerators, telescopes, and other large scientific experiments. An important component of all EPICS-based control systems is a collection of input/output controllers (IOCs). An IOC has three primary components: (1) a real-time database; (2) channel access, which provides network access to the database; and (3) device/driver support for interfacing to equipment. This paper describes some projects related to providing device/driver support on non-vxWorks systems. In order to support IOCs on platforms other than vxWorks, operating-system-independent (OSI) application program interfaces (APIs) were defined for threads, semaphores, timers, etc. Providing support for a new platform consists of providing an operating-system-dependent implementation of the OSI APIs.

Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, M.M.; Zhou, D.Q.; Zhou, P.; Liu, G.Q.

2016-01-01

The feed-in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy. China also adopts feed-in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation. This study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs in 30 provinces of China. The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. A method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and Least-Squares Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model. The results demonstrate that the feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh. On this basis, we find that the levels of sub-regional feed-in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible. We have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes, as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission. It has been suggested that the Chinese government takes diverse measures, including increasing research and development investment, establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity-transmission infrastructure, to reduce the required feed-in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. - Highlights: • We estimate the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs for 30 provinces in China by using real options method. • The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. • The feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh.

Capital renewal as a real option

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reindorp, M.J.; Fu, M.C.

2011-01-01

We consider the timing of replacement of obsolete subsystems within an extensive, complex infrastructure. Such replacement action, known as capital renewal, must balance uncertainty about future profitability against uncertainty about future renewal costs. Treating renewal investments as real

An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

Science.gov (United States)

Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

2016-01-01

A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hach, Daniel; Spinler, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the effect of capacity payments on investments in gas-fired power plants in the presence of different degrees of renewable energy technology (RET) penetration. Low variable cost renewables increasingly make investments in gas-fired generation unprofitable. At the same time, growing feed-in from intermittent RETs amplifies fluctuations in power generation, thus entailing the need for flexible buffer capacity—currently mostly gas-fired power plants. A real options approach is applied to evaluate investment decisions and timing of a single investor in gas-fired power generation. We investigate the necessity and effectiveness of capacity payments. Our model incorporates multiple uncertainties and assesses the effect of capacity payments under different degrees of RET penetration. In a numerical study, we implement stochastic processes for peak-load electricity prices and natural gas prices. We find that capacity payments are an effective measure to promote new gas-fired generation projects. Especially in times of high renewable feed-in, capacity payments are required to incentivize peak-load investments. - Highlights: • We assess capacity payments under the specific focus of the influence of different degrees of renewable feed-in. • We use a real options approach to analyze investment decision and timing. • Our model reflects stochastic gas prices and stochastic electricity prices. • The case study shows the value of capacity payments to investors especially under high renewable feed-in.

The influence of ambient light on the driver

Science.gov (United States)

Klinger, Karsten D.; Lemmer, Uli

2008-04-01

Increasingly, cars are fitted with interior ambient lighting which is switched on while driving. This special kind of interior light emphasizes the interior design of the car, it makes a car look special and gives the buyers a new option to personalize their automobiles. But how does ambient interior light influence the driver? We conducted a series of over 50 tests to study the influence of interior ambient light on contrast perception under different illumination levels, colors and positions of the illuminated areas. Our tests show that in many cases the ambient lighting can improve the visual contrast for seeing objects in the headlamp beam. But the test persons mentioned that the tested brightness looked too bright and that they felt glared. The measured values instead proved that no disability glare exists. Therefore, provided that the drivers can adjust the intensity of the ambient light to avoid glare, the ambient light has no negative effect on the drivers' contrast perception.

Recirculating induction accelerator as a low-cost driver for heavy ion fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, J.J.; Newton, M.A.; Reginato, L.L.; Sharp, W.M.; Shay, H.D.; Yu, S.S.

1991-09-01

As a fusion driver, a heavy ion accelerator offers the advantages of efficient target coupling, high reliability, and long stand-off focusing. While the projected cost of conventional heavy ion fusion (HIF) drivers based on multiple beam induction linacs are quite competitive with other inertial driver options, a driver solution which reduces the cost by a factor of two or more will make the case for HIF truly compelling. The recirculating induction accelerator has the potential of large cost reductions. For this reason, an intensive study of the recirculator concept was performed by a team from LLNL and LBL over the past year. We have constructed a concrete point design example of a 4 MJ driver with a projected efficiency of 35% and projected cost of less than 500 million dollars. A detailed report of our findings during this year of intensive studies has been recently completed. 3 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Prospect balancing theory: Bounded rationality of drivers' speed choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt-Daffy, Martin

2014-02-01

This paper introduces a new approach to model the psychological determinants of drivers' speed choice: prospect-balancing theory. The theory transfers psychological insight into the bounded rationality of human decision-making to the field of driving behaviour. Speed choice is conceptualized as a trade-off between two options for action: the option to drive slower and the option to drive faster. Each option is weighted according to a subjective value and a subjectively weighted probability attributed to the achievement of the associated action goal; e.g. to avoid an accident by driving more slowly. The theory proposes that the subjective values and weightings of probability differ systematically from the objective conditions and thereby usually favour a cautious speed choice. A driving simulation study with 24 male participants supports this assumption. In a conflict between a monetary gain in case of fast arrival and a monetary loss in case of a collision with a deer, participants chose a velocity lower than that which would maximize their pay-out. Participants' subjective certainty of arriving in time and of avoiding a deer collision assessed at different driving speeds diverged from the respective objective probabilities in accordance with the observed bias in choice of speed. Results suggest that the bounded rationality of drivers' speed choice might be used to support attempts to improve road safety. Thus, understanding the motivational and perceptual determinants of this intuitive mode of decision-making might be a worthwhile focus of future research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sliding Mode Pulsed Averaging IC Drivers for High Brightness Light Emitting Diodes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dr. Anatoly Shteynberg, PhD

2006-08-17

This project developed new Light Emitting Diode (LED) driver ICs associated with specific (uniquely operated) switching power supplies that optimize performance for High Brightness LEDs (HB-LEDs). The drivers utilize a digital control core with a newly developed nonlinear, hysteretic/sliding mode controller with mixed-signal processing. The drivers are flexible enough to allow both traditional microprocessor interface as well as other options such as “on the fly” adjustment of color and brightness. Some other unique features of the newly developed drivers include • AC Power Factor Correction; • High power efficiency; • Substantially fewer external components should be required, leading to substantial reduction of Bill of Materials (BOM). Thus, the LED drivers developed in this research : optimize LED performance by increasing power efficiency and power factor. Perhaps more remarkably, the LED drivers provide this improved performance at substantially reduced costs compared to the present LED power electronic driver circuits. Since one of the barriers to market penetration for HB-LEDs (in particular “white” light LEDs) is cost/lumen, this research makes important contributions in helping the advancement of SSL consumer acceptance and usage.

A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

2007-05-15

This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingming Zhang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

Irregular grid methods for pricing high-dimensional American options

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berridge, S.J.

2004-01-01

This thesis proposes and studies numerical methods for pricing high-dimensional American options; important examples being basket options, Bermudan swaptions and real options. Four new methods are presented and analysed, both in terms of their application to various test problems, and in terms of

2.5 Gb/s laser-driver GaAS IC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riishøj, Jesper

1993-01-01

A laser-diode driver GaAs IC incorporating an optional NRZ/RZ (non-return-to-zero/return-to-zero) conversion facility, having ECL (emitter-coupled logic) and SCFL (source-coupled FET logic)-compatible inputs and providing a 0-60-mA adjustable output current into a 50-Ω/5-V termination at bit rates...... obtained. To verify laser driving performance a back-to-back optical-fiber transmission experiment was performed, giving good optical eye diagrams at 2.5 Gb/s. The electrooptical interplay between laser-diode driver and laser-diode has been demonstrated using SPICE simulations...... up to 2 Gb/s NRZ and maintaining a clear eye opening of 50 mA at 2.5 Gb/s NRZ bit rate has been designed, using a commercial 1-μm gate-length (Fτ=12 GHz) GaAs MESFET foundry service. The high maximum output current is obtained by implementing the output driver as a cascode differential amplifier...

Real Islamic Logic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.

2011-01-01

Four options for assigning a meaning to Islamic Logic are surveyed including a new proposal for an option named "Real Islamic Logic" (RIL). That approach to Islamic Logic should serve modern Islamic objectives in a way comparable to the functionality of Islamic Finance. The prospective role of RIL

Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierangelo Ciurlia

2012-01-01

Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.

Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimin Heng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, Shio-Ling

2011-01-01

This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO 2 emission reduction, or general investment projects. - Research highlights: → Develops an approach which combines the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. → Applies to general energy-saving project or other investment projects. → Can more authentically response to the project value with strategic entry and exit. → Provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria via modified Tobin's q model. → Reduces the model complexity and increases the flexibility in practice application.

The Train Driver Recovery Problem - a Set Partitioning Based Model and Solution Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rezanova, Natalia Jurjevna; Ryan, David

The need to recover a train driver schedule occurs during major disruptions in the daily railway operations. Using data from the train driver schedule of the Danish passenger railway operator DSB S-tog A/S, a solution method to the Train Driver Recovery Problem (TDRP) is developed. The TDRP...... the depth-first search of the Branch & Bound tree. Preliminarily results are encouraging, showing that nearly all tested real-life instances produce integer solutions to the LP relaxation and solutions are found within a few seconds....

Fuel options for oil sands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, T.

2005-01-01

This presentation examined fuel options in relation to oil sands production. Options include steam and hydrogen (H 2 ) for upgrading; natural gas by pipeline; bitumen; petroleum coke; and coal. Various cost drivers were also considered for each of the fuel options. It was noted that natural gas has high energy value but the capital cost is low, and that coke's energy value is very low but the capital cost is high. A chart forecasting energy prices was presented. The disposition of Western Canada's northern gas situation was presented. Issues concerning rail transportation for coal were considered. Environmental concerns were also examined. A chart of typical gas requirements for 75,000 B/D oil sands projects was presented. Issues concerning steam generation with gas and mining cogeneration with gas fuel and steam turbines were discussed, as well as cogeneration and H 2 with gas fuels and steam turbines. Various technology and fuel utility options were examined, along with details of equipment and processes. Boiler technologies were reviewed by type as well as fuel and steam quality and pressure. Charts of cogeneration with gas turbine and circulation fluid bed boilers were presented. Gasification processes were reviewed and a supply cost basis was examined. Cost drivers were ranked according to energy, operating considerations and capital investment. Results indicated that fuel costs were significant for gas and coal. Capital costs and capital recovery charge was most significant with coal and gasification technology. Without capital recovery, cash costs favour the use of bitumen and coke. Gasification would need lower capital and lower capital recovery to compete with direct burning. It was concluded that direct burning of bitumen can compete with natural gas. With price volatility anticipated, dual fuel capability for bitumen and gas has merit. Petroleum coke can be produced or retrieved from stockpiles. Utility supply costs of direct burning of coke is

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

2012-07-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

2012-01-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

Estimating spillover benefits of large R and D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R and D programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

2012-01-01

This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R and D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R and D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD and D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. - Highlights: ► Evaluate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme. ► Consider different types of spillover effects. ► Economic value of spillovers is estimated with a compound real options model. ► Spillover benefits could represent up to 20% of the value of fusion RDDD programme.

Implementation Of CAN Based Intelligent Driver Alert System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yin Mar Win Kyaw Myo Maung Maung

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This system is an attempt to analyze Intelligent Driver Alert System Using CAN Protocol. CAN Controller Area Network offer an efficient communication protocol among sensors actuators controllers and other nodes in real-time applications and is known for its simplicity reliability and high performance. It has given an effective way by which can increase the car and driver safety. This system presents the development and implementation of a digital driving system for a semi-autonomous vehicle to improve the driver-vehicle interface using microcontroller based data acquisition system that uses ADC to bring all control data from analog to digital format. In this system the signal information like temperature LM35 sensor if the temperature increase above the 60 o C and ultrasonic sensor is adapted to measure the distance between the object and vehicle if obstacle is detected within 75cm from the vehicle the controller gives buzzer to the driver speed measure using RPM sensor if revolution increase up to 1200 per minute controller act and to avoid the maximum revolution and to check the fuel level continuously and display in the percentage if fuel level below 20 percent the controller also gives buzzer to the driver and distance fuel level and temperature continuously display on the LCD.

Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yessica González Londoño

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

Development of a real-time prediction model of driver behavior at intersections using kinematic time series data.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Yaoyuan V; Elliott, Michael R; Flannagan, Carol A C

2017-09-01

As connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) enter the fleet, there will be a long period when these vehicles will have to interact with human drivers. One of the challenges for CAVs is that human drivers do not communicate their decisions well. Fortunately, the kinematic behavior of a human-driven vehicle may be a good predictor of driver intent within a short time frame. We analyzed the kinematic time series data (e.g., speed) for a set of drivers making left turns at intersections to predict whether the driver would stop before executing the turn. We used principal components analysis (PCA) to generate independent dimensions that explain the variation in vehicle speed before a turn. These dimensions remained relatively consistent throughout the maneuver, allowing us to compute independent scores on these dimensions for different time windows throughout the approach to the intersection. We then linked these PCA scores to whether a driver would stop before executing a left turn using the random intercept Bayesian additive regression trees. Five more road and observable vehicle characteristics were included to enhance prediction. Our model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.84 at 94m away from the center of an intersection and steadily increased to 0.90 by 46m away from the center of an intersection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

2008-01-01

This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmit, T.M.; Luo, J.; Conrad, J.M.

2011-01-01

U.S. ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the consideration of volatility in both revenue and cost components, as well as the correlation between them. The effects of policy affecting plant revenues dominate the effects of those policies affecting production costs. In the absence of these policies, much of the recent expansionary periods would have not existed and market conditions in the late-1990s would have led to some plant closures. We also show that, regardless of plant size, U.S. ethanol policy has narrowed the distance between the optimal entry and exit curves, implying a more narrow range of inactivity and indicative of a more volatile evolution for the industry than would have existed otherwise. - Highlights: ► An extended real options framework with two stochastic variables is developed. ► Ethanol expansion largely induced by the revenue-enhancing effects of policy. ► Removing effects of policy changes optimal entry/exit environment considerably. ► To expand US ethanol industry, size of policy contributions needs to grow. ► US ethanol policy has fostered more volatile industry development.

Real-Time Eye Detection and Tracking under Various Light Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Feng Jiao

2007-10-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a real-time online prototype automobile and truck driver-fatigue monitor. It uses remotely located charge-coupled-device cameras equipped with active infrared illuminators to acquire video images of the driver. Various visual cues that typically characterize the level of alertness of a person are extracted in real time and systematically combined to infer the fatigue level of the driver. The visual cues employed characterize eyelid movement, gaze movement, head movement, and facial expression. A probabilistic model is developed to model human fatigue and to predict fatigue based on the visual cues obtained. The simultaneous use of multiple visual cues and their systematic combination yields a much more robust and accurate fatigue characterization than using a single visual cue. This system was validated under real-life fatigue conditions with human subjects of different ethnic backgrounds, genders, and ages; with/without glasses; and under different illumination conditions. It was found to be reasonably robust, reliable, and accurate in fatigue characterization.

SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

2014-03-15

The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni

2014-01-01

The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

2009-07-01

Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

Manager’s Flexibility & Cancellation Option: Insights of a Case Study in the Latin American Oil Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arthur Ridolfo Neto

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This article focused on the main business insights of the use of Real Options valuation analysis in the eyes of a finance professional. It used a case study of an investment opportunity in the oil and gas field services industry in Latin America to discuss the methodology implementation and its insights. As a secondary objective, it discussed the insights and options embedded in this investment opportunity.Methodology: The investment opportunity was examined using the Real Options Analysis (ROA framework and the results compared to the traditional methodology of Net Present Value. The valuation technique was performed as if it had been applied at the time the project was approved.Findings: The most important of Real Option valuation is not the results, but how one arrives at them. After the project value is calculated and the project approved or not, the Real Option valuation requires and supports the monitoring of the project. By understanding how the options are created, managers can make better decisions about the project after it was approved.Practical implications: A relevant contribution from the study was the discussion, as a practitioner, of the methodology implementation in a real world corporation. Originality & value: The case study evaluated two types of real options: first, the effect of an option to cancel a contract that was assessed from the perspective of the client contracting the project; and second, the option to abandon and defer, from the perspective of the company that will perform the investment to provide the services. By incorporating the cost of the put option that the company puts forth for the client (cancellation option it reduces the project value by giving flexibility to its clients.

Buridan's Ass and a Menu of Options.

OpenAIRE

Svetlana Boyarchenko

2005-01-01

The goal of the paper is to study how a menu of options affects decisions of a rational agent facing uncertainty over future payoff streams. Using the real options approach, we demonstrate that multiple options not only increase the barrier which the underlying stochastic variable has to reach in order investment became optimal, but cause the investor to be inactive even when the cost of investment is vanishing. As a technical contribution, the paper suggests a robust method of solution of a ...

Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Momani, Amer Mohammad

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

Video-based real-time on-street parking occupancy detection system

Science.gov (United States)

Bulan, Orhan; Loce, Robert P.; Wu, Wencheng; Wang, YaoRong; Bernal, Edgar A.; Fan, Zhigang

2013-10-01

Urban parking management is receiving significant attention due to its potential to reduce traffic congestion, fuel consumption, and emissions. Real-time parking occupancy detection is a critical component of on-street parking management systems, where occupancy information is relayed to drivers via smart phone apps, radio, Internet, on-road signs, or global positioning system auxiliary signals. Video-based parking occupancy detection systems can provide a cost-effective solution to the sensing task while providing additional functionality for traffic law enforcement and surveillance. We present a video-based on-street parking occupancy detection system that can operate in real time. Our system accounts for the inherent challenges that exist in on-street parking settings, including illumination changes, rain, shadows, occlusions, and camera motion. Our method utilizes several components from video processing and computer vision for motion detection, background subtraction, and vehicle detection. We also present three traffic law enforcement applications: parking angle violation detection, parking boundary violation detection, and exclusion zone violation detection, which can be integrated into the parking occupancy cameras as a value-added option. Our experimental results show that the proposed parking occupancy detection method performs in real-time at 5 frames/s and achieves better than 90% detection accuracy across several days of videos captured in a busy street block under various weather conditions such as sunny, cloudy, and rainy, among others.

Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

2008-01-01

textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

Volvo drivers' experiences with advanced crash avoidance and related technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Eichelberger, Angela H; McCartt, Anne T

2014-01-01

Crash avoidance technologies can potentially prevent or mitigate many crashes, but their success depends in part on driver acceptance. Owners of 2010-2012 model Volvo vehicles with several technologies were interviewed about their experiences. Interviews were conducted in summer 2012 with 155 owners of vehicles with City Safety as a standard feature; 145 owners with an optional technology package that included adaptive cruise control, distance alert, collision warning with full auto brake (and pedestrian detection on certain models), driver alert control, and lane departure warning; and 172 owners with both City Safety and the technology package. The survey response rates were 21 percent for owners with City Safety, 30 percent for owners with the technology package, and 27 percent for owners with both. Ten percent of owners opted out before the telephone survey began, and 18 percent declined to participate when called. Despite some annoyance, most respondents always leave the systems on, although fewer do so for lane departure warning (59%). For each of the systems, at least 80 percent of respondents with the system would want it on their next vehicle. Many respondents reported safer driving habits with the systems (e.g., following less closely with adaptive cruise control, using turn signals more often with lane departure warning). Fewer respondents reported potentially unsafe behavior, such as allowing the vehicle to brake for them at least some of the time. About one third of respondents experienced autonomous braking when they believed they were at risk of crashing, and about one fifth of respondents thought it had prevented a crash. About one fifth of respondents with the technology package reported that they were confused or misunderstood which safety system had activated in their vehicle. Consistent with the results for early adopters in the previous survey of Volvo and Infiniti owners, the present survey found that driver acceptance of the technologies

A Real Options Method for Estimating the Adoption Potential of Forestry and Agroforestry Systems on Private Lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

2010-01-01

The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV), once was the largest forested bottom-land area in the continental United States, but has undergone widespread loss of forest through conversion to farmland. Restoration of forest functions and values has been a key conservation goal in the LMAV since the 1970s. This study utilizes a partial differential real options...

Distracted driving in elderly and middle-aged drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Kelsey R; Johnson, Amy M; Emerson, Jamie L; Dawson, Jeffrey D; Boer, Erwin R; Rizzo, Matthew

2012-03-01

Automobile driving is a safety-critical real-world example of multitasking. A variety of roadway and in-vehicle distracter tasks create information processing loads that compete for the neural resources needed to drive safely. Drivers with mind and brain aging may be particularly susceptible to distraction due to waning cognitive resources and control over attention. This study examined distracted driving performance in an instrumented vehicle (IV) in 86 elderly (mean=72.5 years, SD=5.0 years) and 51 middle-aged drivers (mean=53.7 years, SD=9.3 year) under a concurrent auditory-verbal processing load created by the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task (PASAT). Compared to baseline (no-task) driving performance, distraction was associated with reduced steering control in both groups, with middle-aged drivers showing a greater increase in steering variability. The elderly drove slower and showed decreased speed variability during distraction compared to middle-aged drivers. They also tended to "freeze up", spending significantly more time holding the gas pedal steady, another tactic that may mitigate time pressured integration and control of information, thereby freeing mental resources to maintain situation awareness. While 39% of elderly and 43% of middle-aged drivers committed significantly more driving safety errors during distraction, 28% and 18%, respectively, actually improved, compatible with allocation of attention resources to safety critical tasks under a cognitive load. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated deployment architecture for predictive real-time traffic routing incorporating human factors considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-05-01

As Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) are being more widely accessed by drivers, understanding drivers behavioral responses to real-time travel information through ATIS and its consequential benefits are important to the widespread deplo...

Designing Pareto-superior demand-response rate options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, I.; Woo, C.K.

2006-01-01

We explore three voluntary service options-real-time pricing, time-of-use pricing, and curtailable/interruptible service-that a local distribution company might offer its customers in order to encourage them to alter their electricity usage in response to changes in the electricity-spot-market price. These options are simple and practical, and make minimal information demands. We show that each of the options is Pareto-superior ex ante, in that it benefits both the participants and the company offering it, while not affecting the non-participants. The options are shown to be Pareto-superior ex post as well, except under certain exceptional circumstances. (author)

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

2007-07-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

2007-01-01

Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

Analyzing Vehicle Fuel Saving Opportunities through Intelligent Driver Feedback

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonder, J.; Earleywine, M.; Sparks, W.

2012-06-01

Driving style changes, e.g., improving driver efficiency and motivating driver behavior changes, could deliver significant petroleum savings. This project examines eliminating stop-and-go driving and unnecessary idling, and also adjusting acceleration rates and cruising speeds to ideal levels to quantify fuel savings. Such extreme adjustments can result in dramatic fuel savings of over 30%, but would in reality only be achievable through automated control of vehicles and traffic flow. In real-world driving, efficient driving behaviors could reduce fuel use by 20% on aggressively driven cycles and by 5-10% on more moderately driven trips. A literature survey was conducted of driver behavior influences, and pertinent factors from on-road experiments with different driving styles were observed. This effort highlighted important driver influences such as surrounding vehicle behavior, anxiety over trying to get somewhere quickly, and the power/torque available from the vehicle. Existing feedback approaches often deliver efficiency information and instruction. Three recommendations for maximizing fuel savings from potential drive cycle improvement are: (1) leveraging applications with enhanced incentives, (2) using an approach that is easy and widely deployable to motivate drivers, and (3) utilizing connected vehicle and automation technologies to achieve large and widespread efficiency improvements.

Option pricing: a flexible tool to disseminate shared savings contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedberg, Mark W; Buendia, Anthony M; Lauderdale, Katherine E; Hussey, Peter S

2013-08-01

Due to volatility in healthcare costs, shared savings contracts can create systematic financial losses for payers, especially when contracting with smaller providers. To improve the business case for shared savings, we calculated the prices of financial options that payers can "sell" to providers to offset these losses. Using 2009 to 2010 member-level total cost of care data from a large commercial health plan, we calculated option prices by applying a bootstrap simulation procedure. We repeated these simulations for providers of sizes ranging from 500 to 60,000 patients and for shared savings contracts with and without key design features (minimum savings thresholds,bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk) and under assumptions of zero, 1%, and 2% real cost reductions due to the shared savings contracts. Assuming no real cost reduction and a 50% shared savings rate, per patient option prices ranged from $225 (3.1% of overall costs) for 500-patient providers to $23 (0.3%) for 60,000-patient providers. Introducing minimum savings thresholds, bonus caps, cost outlier truncation, and downside risk reduced these option prices. Option prices were highly sensitive to the magnitude of real cost reductions. If shared savings contracts cause 2% reductions in total costs, option prices fall to zero for all but the smallest providers. Calculating the prices of financial options that protect payers and providers from downside risk can inject flexibility into shared savings contracts, extend such contracts to smaller providers, and clarify the tradeoffs between different contract designs, potentially speeding the dissemination of shared savings.

American options under stochastic volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chockalingam, A.; Muthuraman, K.

2011-01-01

The problem of pricing an American option written on an underlying asset with constant price volatility has been studied extensively in literature. Real-world data, however, demonstrate that volatility is not constant, and stochastic volatility models are used to account for dynamic volatility

In Patients with Cirrhosis, Driving Simulator Performance is Associated With Real-life Driving

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauridsen, Mette Enok Munk; Thacker, Leroy R; White, Melanie B

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) has been linked to higher real-life rates of automobile crashes and poor performance in driving simulation studies, but the link between driving simulator performance and real-life automobile crashes has not been clearly established. Further......, not all patients with MHE are unsafe drivers, but it is unclear how to distinguish them from unsafe drivers. We investigated the link between performance on driving simulators and real-life automobile accidents and traffic violations. We also aimed to identify features of unsafe drivers with cirrhosis...... and evaluated changes in simulated driving skills and MHE status after 1 year. METHODS: We performed a study of outpatients with cirrhosis (n=205; median 55 years old; median model for end-stage liver disease score, 9.5; none with overt hepatic encephalopathy or alcohol or illicit drug use within previous 6...

VAMOS: The verification and monitoring options study: Current research options for in-situ monitoring and verification of contaminant remediation and containment within the vadose zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Betsill, J.D.; Gruebel, R.D.

1995-09-01

The Verification and Monitoring Options Study Project (VAMOS) was established to identify high-priority options for future vadose-zone environmental research in the areas of in-situ remediation monitoring, post-closure monitoring, and containment emplacement and verification monitoring. VAMOS examined projected needs not currently being met with applied technology in order to develop viable monitoring and verification research options. The study emphasized a compatible systems approach to reinforce the need for utilizing compatible components to provide user friendly site monitoring systems. To identify the needs and research options related to vadose-zone environmental monitoring and verification, a literature search and expert panel forums were conducted. The search included present drivers for environmental monitoring technology, technology applications, and research efforts. The forums included scientific, academic, industry, and regulatory environmental professionals as well as end users of environmental technology. The experts evaluated current and future monitoring and verification needs, methods for meeting these needs, and viable research options and directions. A variety of high-priority technology development, user facility, and technology guidance research options were developed and presented as an outcome of the literature search and expert panel forums

Individual differences in peripheral physiology and implications for the real-time assessment of driver state (phase I & II).

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

Cognitively oriented in-vehicle activities (cell-phone calls, speech interfaces, audio translations of text : messages, etc.) increasingly place non-visual demands on a drivers attention. While a drivers eyes may : remain oriented towards the r...

Underbelly injury based identification of the driver in a three-rider motorcycle accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shengxiong; Yin, Zhiyong; Su, Sen; Li, Kui

2016-01-01

This paper presents a three-rider motorcycle accident which took place in a suburb of Chongqing China. In the accident, the motorcycle impacted the terminal of a bridge footpath and led to two riders died and one rider injured. After the accident, one rider received injuries around the groin area including the underbelly area and the perineum area. Another rider suffered from injuries only on the perineum areas. In medico-legal judgments, injuries around the groin area also called groin injuries in victims of motorcycle accidents are usually regarded as "fuel tank injuries" which are commonly found in drivers. But, the injuries around the groin area are sometimes confused with the perineum injuries. Therefore, the perineum injuries are often wrongly reckoned as the "fuel tank injuries" and used to identify the drivers too. Actually, passengers can sometimes suffer from perineum injuries in many head-on impacting motorcycle accidents. It is of vital matters to understand the differences between groin injuries and perineum injuries so that the real driver who should be responsible for the accident can be recognized. In this paper, the three-rider motorcycle accident was presented and the injury information of the three riders was studied in order to distinguish the real driver from the riders. We consider that the groin injury has some differences with the perineum injury and the latter should not always be related to the driver especially in high-speed head-on impacting motorcycle accidents. In addition, the injury on underbelly areas is important to identify the driver. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated feedback to foster safe driving in young drivers : Phase 2.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) represents a promising approach to reduce speeding. A core principle for ISA systems is that they provide real-time feedback to drivers, prompting them to reduce speed when some threshold at or above the limit is re...

Nonlinear Schrödinger approach to European option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Wróblewski, Marcin

2017-05-01

This paper deals with numerical option pricing methods based on a Schrödinger model rather than the Black-Scholes model. Nonlinear Schrödinger boundary value problems seem to be alternatives to linear models which better reflect the complexity and behavior of real markets. Therefore, based on the nonlinear Schrödinger option pricing model proposed in the literature, in this paper a model augmented by external atomic potentials is proposed and numerically tested. In terms of statistical physics the developed model describes the option in analogy to a pair of two identical quantum particles occupying the same state. The proposed model is used to price European call options on a stock index. the model is calibrated using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm based on market data. A Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the discretized boundary value problem numerically. Numerical results are provided and discussed. It seems that our proposal more accurately models phenomena observed in the real market than do linear models.

Examination of Supplemental Driver Training and Online Basic Driver Education

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

This report describes supplemental driver training programs and online basic driver education. It coves supplemental driver training that : focused on knowledge and skills beyond those normally found in traditional driver education delivered in the U...

An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

2010-01-01

This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

Development of a Real-Time Detection System for Augmented Reality Driving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuei-Shu Hsu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Augmented reality technology is applied so that driving tests may be performed in various environments using a virtual reality scenario with the ultimate goal of improving visual and interactive effects of simulated drivers. Environmental conditions simulating a real scenario are created using an augmented reality structure, which guarantees the test taker’s security since they are not subject to real-life elements and dangers. Furthermore, the accuracy of tests conducted through virtual reality is not influenced by either environmental or human factors. Driver posture is captured in real time using Kinect’s depth perception function and then applied to driving simulation effects that are emulated by Unity3D’s gaming technology. Subsequently, different driving models may be collected through different drivers. In this research, nearly true and realistic street environments are simulated to evaluate driver behavior. A variety of different visual effects are easily available to effectively reduce error rates, thereby significantly improving test security as well as the reliability and reality of this project. Different situation designs are simulated and evaluated to increase development efficiency and build more security verification test platforms using such technology in conjunction with driving tests, vehicle fittings, environmental factors, and so forth.

Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

2018-04-01

Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

Are professional drivers less sleepy than non-professional drivers?

Science.gov (United States)

Anund, Anna; Ahlström, Christer; Fors, Carina; Åkerstedt, Torbjörn

2018-01-01

Objective It is generally believed that professional drivers can manage quite severe fatigue before routine driving performance is affected. In addition, there are results indicating that professional drivers can adapt to prolonged night shifts and may be able to learn to drive without decreased performance under high levels of sleepiness. However, very little research has been conducted to compare professionals and non-professionals when controlling for time driven and time of day. Method The aim of this study was to use a driving simulator to investigate whether professional drivers are more resistant to sleep deprivation than non-professional drivers. Differences in the development of sleepiness (self-reported, physiological and behavioral) during driving was investigated in 11 young professional and 15 non-professional drivers. Results Professional drivers self-reported significantly lower sleepiness while driving a simulator than non-professional drivers. In contradiction, they showed longer blink durations and more line crossings, both of which are indicators of sleepiness. They also drove faster. The reason for the discrepancy in the relation between the different sleepiness indicators for the two groups could be due to more experience to sleepiness among the professional drivers or possibly to the faster speed, which might unconsciously have been used by the professionals to try to counteract sleepiness. Conclusion Professional drivers self-reported significantly lower sleepiness while driving a simulator than non-professional drivers. However, they showed longer blink durations and more line crossings, both of which are indicators of sleepiness, and they drove faster.

Best practices for the implementation of the REAL ID Act.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-01

The REAL ID Act specifies the minimum standards that must be used to produce and issue drivers license and : identification cards that are REAL ID compliant. Beginning in 2020, if a person does not possess a form of : identification that meets REA...

Hardware Approach for Real Time Machine Stereo Vision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Tornow

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Image processing is an effective tool for the analysis of optical sensor information for driver assistance systems and controlling of autonomous robots. Algorithms for image processing are often very complex and costly in terms of computation. In robotics and driver assistance systems, real-time processing is necessary. Signal processing algorithms must often be drastically modified so they can be implemented in the hardware. This task is especially difficult for continuous real-time processing at high speeds. This article describes a hardware-software co-design for a multi-object position sensor based on a stereophotogrammetric measuring method. In order to cover a large measuring area, an optimized algorithm based on an image pyramid is implemented in an FPGA as a parallel hardware solution for depth map calculation. Object recognition and tracking are then executed in real-time in a processor with help of software. For this task a statistical cluster method is used. Stabilization of the tracking is realized through use of a Kalman filter. Keywords: stereophotogrammetry, hardware-software co-design, FPGA, 3-d image analysis, real-time, clustering and tracking.

Driver fatigue alarm based on eye detection and gaze estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xinghua; Xu, Lu; Yang, Jingyu

2007-11-01

The driver assistant system has attracted much attention as an essential component of intelligent transportation systems. One task of driver assistant system is to prevent the drivers from fatigue. For the fatigue detection it is natural that the information about eyes should be utilized. The driver fatigue can be divided into two types, one is the sleep with eyes close and another is the sleep with eyes open. Considering that the fatigue detection is related with the prior knowledge and probabilistic statistics, the dynamic Bayesian network is used as the analysis tool to perform the reasoning of fatigue. Two kinds of experiments are performed to verify the system effectiveness, one is based on the video got from the laboratory and another is based on the video got from the real driving situation. Ten persons participate in the test and the experimental result is that, in the laboratory all the fatigue events can be detected, and in the practical vehicle the detection ratio is about 85%. Experiments show that in most of situations the proposed system works and the corresponding performance is satisfying.

Drivers' Visual Behavior-Guided RRT Motion Planner for Autonomous On-Road Driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Mingbo; Mei, Tao; Liang, Huawei; Chen, Jiajia; Huang, Rulin; Zhao, Pan

2016-01-15

This paper describes a real-time motion planner based on the drivers' visual behavior-guided rapidly exploring random tree (RRT) approach, which is applicable to on-road driving of autonomous vehicles. The primary novelty is in the use of the guidance of drivers' visual search behavior in the framework of RRT motion planner. RRT is an incremental sampling-based method that is widely used to solve the robotic motion planning problems. However, RRT is often unreliable in a number of practical applications such as autonomous vehicles used for on-road driving because of the unnatural trajectory, useless sampling, and slow exploration. To address these problems, we present an interesting RRT algorithm that introduces an effective guided sampling strategy based on the drivers' visual search behavior on road and a continuous-curvature smooth method based on B-spline. The proposed algorithm is implemented on a real autonomous vehicle and verified against several different traffic scenarios. A large number of the experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm is feasible and efficient for on-road autonomous driving. Furthermore, the comparative test and statistical analyses illustrate that its excellent performance is superior to other previous algorithms.

DRIVER INATTENTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard TAY

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Driver inattention, especially driver distraction, is an extremely influential but generally neglected contributing factor of road crashes. This paper explores some of the common behaviours associated with several common forms of driver inattention, with respect to their perceived crash risks, rates of self-reported behaviours and whether drivers regulate such behaviours depending on the road and traffic environment, and provides some policy recommendations to address issues raised.

Design drivers for a wide-field multi-object spectrograph for the William Herschel Telescope

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Balcells, Marc; Benn, Chris R.; Carter, David; Dalton, Gavin B.; Trager, Scott C.; Feltzing, Sofia; Verheijen, M.A.W.; Jarvis, Matt; Percival, Will; Abrams, Don C.; Agocs, Tibor; Brown, Anthony G. A.; Cano, Diego; Evans, Chris; Helmi, Amina; Lewis, Ian J.; McLure, Ross; Peletier, Reynier F.; Pérez-Fournon, Ismael; Sharples, Ray M.; Tosh, Ian A. J.; Trujillo, Ignacio; Walton, Nic; Westhall, Kyle B.

Wide-field multi-object spectroscopy is a high priority for European astronomy over the next decade. Most 8-10m telescopes have a small field of view, making 4-m class telescopes a particularly attractive option for wide-field instruments. We present a science case and design drivers for a

Optimization of steering elements in the RIA driver linac

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lessner, E. S.; Aseev, V. S.; Ostroumov, P. N.; Physics

2005-01-01

The driver linac of the projected RIA facility is a versatile accelerator, a 1.4-GV, CW superconducting (SC) linac designed to simultaneously accelerate several heavy-ion charge states, providing beams from proton to uranium at 400 MeV/u at power levels at a minimum of 100 kW and up to 400 kW for most beams. Acceleration of multiple-charge-state uranium beams places stringent requirements on the linac design. A steering algorithm was derived that fulfilled the driver's real estate requirements, such as placement of steering dipole coils on SC solenoids and of beam position monitors outside cryostats, and beam-dynamics requirements, such as coupling effects induced by the focusing solenoids. The algorithm has been fully integrated into the tracking code TRACK and it is used to study and optimize the number and position of steering elements that minimize the multiple-beam centroid oscillations and preserve the beam emittance under misalignments of accelerating and transverse focusing elements in the driver linac

Using real options to determine optimal funding strategies for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects in the European Union

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eckhause, Jeremy; Herold, Johannes

2014-01-01

Several projects in the European Union (EU) are currently under development to implement the carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) technology on a large scale and may be subject to public funding under EU support initiatives. These CCS projects may develop any combination of three types of operating levels: pilot, demonstration and full-scale, representing progressing levels of electric power generation capability. Several projects have commenced at the demonstration level, with full-scale commercial levels planned for approximately 2020. Taking the perspective of a funding agency, we employ a real options framework for determining an optimal project selection and funding strategy for the development of full-scale CCS plants. Specifically, we formulate and solve a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) for obtaining optimal funding solutions in order to achieve at least one successfully operating full-scale CCS plant by a target year. The model demonstrates the improved risk reduction by employing such a multi-stage competition. We then extend the model to consider two sensitivities: (1) the flexibility to spend that budget among the time periods and (2) optimizing the budget, but specifying each time period's allocation a priori. State size and runtimes of the SDP model are provided. - Highlights: • Projects implementing three different CCS technology types are described. • We obtain projects’ transition probabilities and costs from expert interviews. • We use a multi-stage real options model to obtain optimal funding strategies. • Using this approach, actual decision-makers could reduce risks in CCS development

Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

Science.gov (United States)

Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

2014-03-01

This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

How does a collision warning system shape driver's brake response time? The influence of expectancy and automation complacency on real-life emergency braking.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruscio, Daniele; Ciceri, Maria Rita; Biassoni, Federica

2015-04-01

Brake Reaction Time (BRT) is an important parameter for road safety. Previous research has shown that drivers' expectations can impact RT when facing hazardous situations, but driving with advanced driver assistance systems, can change the way BRT are considered. The interaction with a collision warning system can help faster more efficient responses, but at the same time can require a monitoring task and evaluation process that may lead to automation complacency. The aims of the present study are to test in a real-life setting whether automation compliancy can be generated by a collision warning system and what component of expectancy can impact the different tasks involved in an assisted BRT process. More specifically four component of expectancy were investigated: presence/absence of anticipatory information, previous direct experience, reliability of the device, and predictability of the hazard determined by repeated use of the warning system. Results supply indication on perception time and mental elaboration of the collision warning system alerts. In particular reliable warning quickened the decision making process, misleading warnings generated automation complacency slowing visual search for hazard detection, lack of directed experienced slowed the overall response while unexpected failure of the device lead to inattentional blindness and potential pseudo-accidents with surprise obstacle intrusion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Value drivers: an approach for estimating health and disease management program savings.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, V L; Becker, Edmund R; Howard, David H

2013-12-01

Health and disease management (HDM) programs have faced challenges in documenting savings related to their implementation. The objective of this eliminate study was to describe OptumHealth's (Optum) methods for estimating anticipated savings from HDM programs using Value Drivers. Optum's general methodology was reviewed, along with details of 5 high-use Value Drivers. The results showed that the Value Driver approach offers an innovative method for estimating savings associated with HDM programs. The authors demonstrated how real-time savings can be estimated for 5 Value Drivers commonly used in HDM programs: (1) use of beta-blockers in treatment of heart disease, (2) discharge planning for high-risk patients, (3) decision support related to chronic low back pain, (4) obesity management, and (5) securing transportation for primary care. The validity of savings estimates is dependent on the type of evidence used to gauge the intervention effect, generating changes in utilization and, ultimately, costs. The savings estimates derived from the Value Driver method are generally reasonable to conservative and provide a valuable framework for estimating financial impacts from evidence-based interventions.

Performance of the BATMAN RF source with a large racetrack shaped driver

Science.gov (United States)

Kraus, W.; Schiesko, L.; Wimmer, C.; Fantz, U.; Heinemann, B.

2017-08-01

In the negative ion sources in neutral beam injection systems (NBI) of future fusion reactors the plasma is generated in up to eight cylindrical RF sources ("drivers") from which it expands into the main volume. For these large sources, in particular those used in the future DEMO NBI, a high RF efficiency and operational reliability is required. To achieve this it could be favorable to substitute each pair of drivers by one larger one. To investigate this option the cylindrical driver of the BATMAN source at IPP Garching has been replaced by a large source with a racetrack shaped base area and tested using the same extraction system. The main differences are a five times larger source volume and another position of the Cs oven which is mounted onto the driver`s back plate and not onto the expansion volume. The conditioning characteristics and the plasma symmetry in front of the plasma grid were very similar. The extracted H- current densities jex are comparable to that achieved with the small driver at the same power. Because no saturation of jex occurred at 0.6 Pa at high power and the source allows high power operation, a maximum value 45.1 mA/cm2 at 103 kW has been reached. Sputtered Cu from the walls of the expansion volume affected the performance at low pressure, particularly in deuterium. The experiments will be therefore continued with Mo coating of all inner walls.

The Train Driver Recovery Problem - Solution Method and Decision Support System Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rezanova, Natalia Jurjevna

2009-01-01

the proposed model and solution method is suitable for solving in real-time. Recovery duties are generated as resource constrained paths in duty networks, and the set partitioning problem is solved with a linear programming based branch-and-price algorithm. Dynamic column generation and problem space expansion...... driver decision support system in their operational environment. Besides solving a particular optimization problem, this thesis contributes with a description of the railway planning process, tactical crew scheduling and the real-time dispatching solutions, taking a starting point in DSB S....... Rezanova NJ, Ryan DM. The train driver recovery problem–A set partitioning based model and solution method. Computers and Operations Research, in press, 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.cor.2009.03.023. 2. Clausen J, Larsen A, Larsen J, Rezanova NJ. Disruption management in the airline industry–Concepts, models...

Driving fatigue in professional drivers: a survey of truck and taxi drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Li, Musen; Peng, Qijia; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei

2015-01-01

Fatigue among truck drivers has been studied extensively; however, less is known regarding the fatigue experience of taxi drivers in heavily populated metropolitan areas. This study aimed to compare the differences and similarities between truck and taxi driver fatigue to provide implications for the fatigue management and education of professional drivers. A sample of 274 truck drivers and 286 taxi drivers in Beijing was surveyed via a questionnaire, which included items regarding work characteristics, fatigue experience, accident information, attitude toward fatigue, and methods of counteracting fatigue. Driver fatigue was prevalent among professional drivers, and it was even more serious for taxi drivers. Taxi drivers reported more frequent fatigue experiences and were involved in more accidents. Among the contributing factors to fatigue, prolonged driving time was the most important factor identified by both driver groups. Importantly, the reason for the engagement in prolonged driving was neither due to the lack of awareness concerning the serious outcome of fatigue driving nor because of their poor detection of fatigue. The most probable reason was the optimism bias, as a result of which these professional drivers thought that fatigue was more serious for other drivers than for themselves, and they thought that they were effective in counteracting the effect of fatigue on their driving performance. Moreover, truck drivers tended to employ methods that require stopping to counteract fatigue, whereas taxi drivers preferred methods that were simultaneous with driving. Although both driver groups considered taking a nap as one of the most effective means to address fatigue, this method was not commonly used. Interestingly, these drivers were aware that the methods they frequently used were not the most effective means to counteract fatigue. This study provides knowledge on truck and taxi drivers' characteristics in fatigue experience, fatigue attitude, and

The address in real time data driver card for the MicroMegas detector of the ATLAS muon upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao, L.; Polychronakos, V.; Chen, H.; Chen, K.; Xu, H.; Martoiu, S.; Felt, N.; Lazovich, T.

2017-01-01

The ART Data Driver Card (ADDC) will be used in the ATLAS muon upgrade to process and transmit the Address in Real Time (ART) signals, which are generated by the front end chip (VMM) to indicate the location of the first above-threshold event. This ART signal is encoded to represent the address of the first threshold-crossing strip for trigger processing and the magnitude information is not included. The ADDC will be installed on the detector with high radiation and magnetic field thus a custom ASIC (ART ASIC) will be used to receive the ART signals from VMM and do the hit-selection processing. Processed data from ART ASIC will be transmitted out of the detector to the trigger processor through fiber connection. To evaluate the performance of the ADDC before the ART ASIC is produced, an FPGA based prototype was built. This prototype includes most of the major components of the ADDC, while a Xilinx Artix-7 FPGA is used to emulate the ART ASIC. The bench test and integration test results of this prototype will also be described.

Design of laser diode driver with constant current and temperature control system

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ming-cai; Yang, Kai-yong; Wang, Zhi-guo; Fan, Zhen-fang

2017-10-01

A laser Diode (LD) driver with constant current and temperature control system is designed according to the LD working characteristics. We deeply researched the protection circuit and temperature control circuit based on thermos-electric cooler(TEC) cooling circuit and PID algorithm. The driver could realize constant current output and achieve stable temperature control of LD. Real-time feedback control method was adopted in the temperature control system to make LD work on its best temperature point. The output power variety and output wavelength shift of LD caused by current and temperature instability were decreased. Furthermore, the driving current and working temperature is adjustable according to specific requirements. The experiment result showed that the developed LD driver meets the characteristics of LD.

A Novel GMM-Based Behavioral Modeling Approach for Smartwatch-Based Driver Authentication.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ching-Han; Chang, Chin-Chun; Liang, Deron

2018-03-28

All drivers have their own distinct driving habits, and usually hold and operate the steering wheel differently in different driving scenarios. In this study, we proposed a novel Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based method that can improve the traditional GMM in modeling driving behavior. This new method can be applied to build a better driver authentication system based on the accelerometer and orientation sensor of a smartwatch. To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method, we created an experimental system that analyzes driving behavior using the built-in sensors of a smartwatch. The experimental results for driver authentication-an equal error rate (EER) of 4.62% in the simulated environment and an EER of 7.86% in the real-traffic environment-confirm the feasibility of this approach.

Expensing options solves nothing.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahlman, William A

2002-12-01

The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

Driver-Array Based Flat-Panel Loudspeakers: Theoretical Background and Design Guidelines

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, David Allan

This thesis relates to the simulation and design of flat-panel loudspeakers using moving-coil driver elements. A brief history of the industry is given, including a collection of products and patents from 1925 until the present, an overview of research papers, and a discussion of current products available. The mechanics of bending flat panels are developed with respect to localized driving forces, both in the frequency domain and the time domain as an impulse response. These simulations are compared to measurements on prototype panels. Additional resonant elements influence the behavior of the system: an optional ported rear enclosure and the resonant characteristics of the drivers. The governing equations for these systems are derived and solutions are implemented using equivalent mechanical circuits and numerical methods. The idea of using driver arrays to independently actuate modes of the panel is discussed at length with respect to modal addressability, modal spillover, and experimental validation. The numerical approach to determining the optimal driver placement for a given set of modes is derived and experimentally validated. An investigation of the acoustic behavior of flat panel loudspeakers is presented, using mechanical simulation results to predict the acoustic radiation. The simulations are compared to measurements and found to accurately predict important mechanical and acoustical behaviors. It is demonstrated that a driver array, with the proper biasing, is capable of creating a flat panel loudspeaker which acts more like a piston than a "diffuse radiator" flat panel loudspeaker. The techniques of "Modal Crossover Networks" are introduced, which use multi-band filters to bias the driver array differently for different frequency bands, optimized for audio reproduction. The question of how many drivers are necessary for a modal crossover network is addressed and found to be dependent on the estimated quality factor (Q) of the panel material and edge

In Patients With Cirrhosis, Driving Simulator Performance Is Associated With Real-life Driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauridsen, Mette M; Thacker, Leroy R; White, Melanie B; Unser, Ariel; Sterling, Richard K; Stravitz, Richard T; Matherly, Scott; Puri, Puneet; Sanyal, Arun J; Gavis, Edith A; Luketic, Velimir; Siddiqui, Muhammad S; Heuman, Douglas M; Fuchs, Michael; Bajaj, Jasmohan S

2016-05-01

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) has been linked to higher real-life rates of automobile crashes and poor performance in driving simulation studies, but the link between driving simulator performance and real-life automobile crashes has not been clearly established. Furthermore, not all patients with MHE are unsafe drivers, but it is unclear how to distinguish them from unsafe drivers. We investigated the link between performance on driving simulators and real-life automobile accidents and traffic violations. We also aimed to identify features of unsafe drivers with cirrhosis and evaluated changes in simulated driving skills and MHE status after 1 year. We performed a study of outpatients with cirrhosis (n = 205; median 55 years old; median model for end-stage liver disease score, 9.5; none with overt hepatic encephalopathy or alcohol or illicit drug use within previous 6 months) seen at the Virginia Commonwealth University and McGuire Veterans Administration Medical Center, from November 2008 through April 2014. All participants were given paper-pencil tests to diagnose MHE (98 had MHE; 48%), and 163 patients completed a standardized driving simulation. Data were collected on traffic violations and automobile accidents from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles and from participants' self-assessments when they entered the study, and from 73 participants 1 year later. Participants also completed a questionnaire about alcohol use and cessation patterns. The driving simulator measured crashes, run-time, road center and edge excursions, and illegal turns during navigation; before and after each driving simulation session, patients were asked to rate their overall driving skills. Drivers were classified as safe or unsafe based on crashes and violations reported on official driving records; simulation results were compared with real-life driving records. Multivariable regression analyses of real-life crashes and violations was performed using data on

Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

2014-12-01

This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Train Driver Recovery Problem - a Set Partitioning Based Model and Solution Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rezanova, Natalia Jurjevna; Ryan, David

2010-01-01

The need to recover a train driver schedule occurs during major disruptions in the daily railway operations. Based on data from the Danish passenger railway operator DSB S-tog A/S, a solution method to the train driver recovery problem (TDRP) is developed. The TDRP is formulated as a set...... branching strategy using the depth-first search of the Branch & Bound tree. The LP relaxation of the TDRP possesses strong integer properties. We present test scenarios generated from the historical real-life operations data of DSB S-tog A/S. The numerical results show that all but one tested instances...... partitioning problem. We define a disruption neighbourhood by identifying a small set of drivers and train tasks directly affected by the disruption. Based on the disruption neighbourhood, the TDRP model is formed and solved. If the TDRP solution provides a feasible recovery for the drivers within...

The Pricing of Tail Risk and the Equity Premium: Evidence from International Option Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

We explore the pricing of tail risk as manifest in index options across international equity markets. The risk premium associated with negative tail events displays persistent shifts, unrelated to volatility. This tail risk premium is a potent predictor of future equity returns, while option......-implied volatility only forecasts the future return variation. Hence, compensation for negative jump risk is the primary driver of the equity premium across all indices, whereas the reward for pure diffusive variance risk is largely unrelated to future equity returns. We also document pronounced commonalities...

The effects of anti-speeding advertisements on the simulated driving behaviour of young drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, Bernice R C; Irwin, Julia D; Chekaluk, Eugene

2017-03-01

Recent examinations of road safety communications, including anti-speeding advertisements, have considered the differential effects of positive and negative emotional appeals on driver behaviour. However, empirical evaluations of anti-speeding messages have largely relied on measures of viewers' reported intentions to comply with speed limits and the self-reported driving behaviour of viewers post-exposure, which might not be indicative of the direct effects that these messages have on real-world driving behaviour. The current research constitutes a first empirical evaluation of different real-world anti-speeding advertisements, as measured by their effects on young drivers' speeding behaviour, using a driving simulator. Licensed drivers (N=116) aged 17-25 years completed driving measures prior to, immediately following, and 7-10days after viewing one of four social marketing advertisements. Results indicated that young drivers' average driving speeds were modestly reduced immediately after they viewed an anti-speeding advertisement that depicted social consequences for speeding and employed a positive emotional appeal when compared to an emotion-matched control advertisement; however, this effect was not found for the anti-speeding advertisement depicting a crash. Interestingly, the results based on reported intentions to reduce speeding predicted the opposite pattern of results. However, there was no evidence that the immediate changes to speeding were maintained 7-10days later, and prompts during Phase 2 did not appear to have an effect. The implications of these findings for road safety advertisements targeting young drivers are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis M. Abadie

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

Solar PV leasing in Singapore: enhancing return on investments with options

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Shuang; Poh, K. L.

2017-05-01

Renewable energy is getting more important nowadays as an alternative to traditional energies. Solar energy, according to Energy Market Authority, is the most viable in the context of Singapore compared to other renewable energy sources due to land constraints. In light of the increasing adoption of solar power in Singapore, this paper focuses on solar PV leasing using a case study. This paper assesses the prospect for solar PV leasing companies in Singapore through the lens of embedded real options. The recent news that solar power is becoming the cheapest form of new electricity presents the leasing company an option to expand the scale of solar PV system. Taking into account this option, the Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment increased significantly compared to the case without real options. Technological developments result in a continuously changing environment with uncertainties. Thus, decision makers need to be aware of the inherent risk associated and identify options to maximize NPV. This upside potential is realized by exercising the managerial flexibility and exploiting the uncertainty. The paper enables solar energy planners to consider possible managerial flexibilities under uncertainties, showing how option thinking can be incorporated in the valuation of solar energy.

Heavy ion induction linac drivers for inertial confinement fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, E.P.; Hovingh, J.

1988-10-01

Intense beams of high energy heavy ions (e.g., 10 GeV Hg) are an attractive option for an ICF driver because of their favorable energy deposition characteristics. The accelerator systems to produce the beams at the required power level are a development from existing technologies of the induction linac, rf linac/storage ring, and synchrotron. The high repetition rate of the accelerator systems, and the high efficiency which can be realized at high current make this approach especially suitable for commercial ICF. The present report gives a summary of the main features of the induction linac driver system, which is the approach now pursued in the USA. The main subsystems, consisting of injector, multiple beam accelerator at low and high energy, transport and pulse compression lines, and final focus are described. Scale relations are given for the current limits and other features of these subsystems. 17 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Locomotor diseases among male long-haul truck drivers and other professional drivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Anker; Kaerlev, Linda; Tüchsen, Finn

2007-01-01

-249) and for other truck drivers (SHR: 130, 95% CI: 108-156) compared to bus drivers (SHR: 110, 95% CI: 79-149). All drivers had high SHR for lesions of the ulnar nerve (SHR: 159, 95% CI: 119-207), especially bus drivers (SHR: 197, 95% CI: 116-311). Long-haul truck drivers had high SHRs for synovitis and bursitis...

Analyzing the Risks Embedded in Option Prices with rndfittool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

2018-01-01

This paper introduces a new computational tool for the analysis of the risks embedded in a set of prices of European-style options. The software enables the estimation of the risk-neutral density (RND) from the observed option prices by means of orthogonal polynomial expansions. Orthogonal...... polynomials offer a viable alternative to more standard techniques based on interpolation and estimation of the second-order derivatives of option prices. The app rndfittool is available on GitHub and its usage is illustrated with examples based on real data....

Development of Ethernet emulation driver for reflective memory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seo, Seong-Heon

2010-01-01

Reflective memory (RFM) is adopted as a real time network in the KSTAR plasma control system (PCS). Since the data uploaded from any computer are automatically shared among all the computers on the RFM network, the design of a distributed control system based on RFM is easily implemented through the management of memory mapping. The data providers and consumers are logically well seperated so that, if memory mapping information is given, a new control unit can be added without any modification to the existing system except connecting a new RFM module through an optical cable. The KSTAR PCS is also connected with the Ethernet in addition to the RFM because the RFM does not support the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) and many network services of the operating system such as the Network File System (NFS) and the Secure Shell (SSH) are based on the TCP/IP. Therefore we developed an Ethernet emulation driver for the RFM to eliminate the need for a separate Ethernet network. The driver was tested on the Linux kernel 2.6.31. The algorithm of the emulation driver is explained and the experimental setup is presented.

Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorella Fatone

2012-01-01

model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

Automated feedback to foster safe driving in young drivers: phase 2 : traffic tech.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) provides a promising approach to reduce speeding. A core principle of ISA is real-time feedback that lets drivers know when they are driving over the speed limit. The overall goal of the study was to provide insight...

How to choose the right capitalization option.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, J; Wise, J

1996-12-01

Physician group practices and networks must have ready access to capital to finance their working capital needs, capital equipment acquisitions, and real estate purchases, as well as to fund the acquisition of additional practices. At least three options for capitalization are available to group practices and networks: debt financing, equity financing, or a combination of the two. The best option for physician group practices and networks depends on the costs of capital and the impact the strategy will have on decision making and governance.

Estimation of Subjective Mental Work Load Level with Heart Rate Variability by Tolerance to Driver's Mental Load

Science.gov (United States)

Yokoi, Toshiyuki; Itoh, Michimasa; Oguri, Koji

Most of the traffic accidents have been caused by inappropriate driver's mental state. Therefore, driver monitoring is one of the most important challenges to prevent traffic accidents. Some studies for evaluating the driver's mental state while driving have been reported; however driver's mental state should be estimated in real-time in the future. This paper proposes a way to estimate quantitatively driver's mental workload using heart rate variability. It is assumed that the tolerance to driver's mental workload is different depending on the individual. Therefore, we classify people based on their individual tolerance to mental workload. Our estimation method is multiple linear regression analysis, and we compare it to NASA-TLX which is used as the evaluation method of subjective mental workload. As a result, the coefficient of correlation improved from 0.83 to 0.91, and the standard deviation of error also improved. Therefore, our proposed method demonstrated the possibility to estimate mental workload.

Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, GabJin

2014-06-01

In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.

Application of Binomial Model and Market Asset Declaimer Methodology for Valuation of Abandon and Expand Options. The Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paweł Mielcarz

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents a case study of valuation of real options included in a investment project. The main goal of the article is to present the calculation and methodological issues of application the methodology for real option valuation. In order to do it there are used the binomial model and Market Asset Declaimer methodology. The project presented in the article concerns the introduction of radio station to a new market. It includes two valuable real options: to abandon the project and to expand.

DFB laser array driver circuit controlled by adjustable signal

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Weikang; Du, Yinchao; Guo, Yu; Li, Wei; Wang, Hao

2018-01-01

In order to achieve the intelligent controlling of DFB laser array, this paper presents the design of an intelligence and high precision numerical controlling electric circuit. The system takes MCU and FPGA as the main control chip, with compact, high-efficiency, no impact, switching protection characteristics. The output of the DFB laser array can be determined by an external adjustable signal. The system transforms the analog control model into a digital control model, which improves the performance of the driver. The system can monitor the temperature and current of DFB laser array in real time. The output precision of the current can reach ± 0.1mA, which ensures the stable and reliable operation of the DFB laser array. Such a driver can benefit the flexible usage of the DFB laser array.

A Driver Behavior Learning Framework for Enhancing Traffic Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramona Maria Paven

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Traffic simulation provides an essential support for developing intelligent transportation systems. It allows affordable validation of such systems using a large variety of scenarios that involves massive data input. However, realistic traffic models are hard to be implemented especially for microscopic traffic simulation. One of the hardest problems in this context is to model the behavior of drivers, due the complexity of human nature. The work presented in this paper proposes a framework for learning driver behavior based on a Hidden Markov Model technique. Moreover, we propose also a practical method to inject this behavior in a traffic model used by the SUMO traffic simulator. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method we present a case study involving real traffic collected from Timisoara city area.

Driving and Low Vision: Validity of Assessments for Predicting Performance of Drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Strong, J. Graham; Jutai, Jeffrey W.; Russell-Minda, Elizabeth; Evans, Mal

2008-01-01

The authors conducted a systematic review to examine whether vision-related assessments can predict the driving performance of individuals who have low vision. The results indicate that measures of visual field, contrast sensitivity, cognitive and attention-based tests, and driver screening tools have variable utility for predicting real-world…

Driver style and driver skill – Clustering sub-groups of drivers differing in their potential danger in traffic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Laila Marianne; Møller, Mette; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

The Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) and the Driver Skill Inventory (DSI) are two of the most frequently used measures of self-reported driving style and driving skill. The motivation behind the present study was to test drivers’ consistency or judgment of their own self-reported driving ability...... based on a combined use of the DBQ and the DSI. Moreover, the joint use of the two instruments was applied to identify sub-groups of drivers that differ in their potential danger in traffic (as measured by frequency of aberrant driving behaviors and level of driving skills), as well as to test whether...... the sub-groups of drivers differed in characteristics such as age, gender, annual mileage and accident involvement. 3908 drivers aged 18–84 participated in the survey. The results suggested that the drivers are consistent in their reporting of driving ability, as the self-reported driving skill level...

Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K.

2004-01-01

Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

A New Method to Detect Driver Fatigue Based on EMG and ECG Collected by Portable Non-Contact Sensors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Wang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Recently, detection and prediction on driver fatigue have become interest of research worldwide. In the present work, a new method is built to effectively evaluate driver fatigue based on electromyography (EMG and electrocardiogram (ECG collected by portable real-time and non-contact sensors. First, under the non-disturbance condition for driver’s attention, mixed physiological signals (EMG, ECG and artefacts are collected by non-contact sensors located in a cushion on the driver’s seat. EMG and ECG are effectively separated by FastICA, and de-noised by empirical mode decomposition (EMD. Then, three physiological features, complexity of EMG, complexity of ECG, and sample entropy (SampEn of ECG, are extracted and analysed. Principal components are obtained by principal components analysis (PCA and are used as independent variables. Finally, a mathematical model of driver fatigue is built, and the accuracy of the model is up to 91%. Moreover, based on the questionnaire, the calculation results of model are consistent with real fatigue felt by the participants. Therefore, this model can effectively detect driver fatigue.

Probabilistic Cash Flow-Based Optimal Investment Timing Using Two-Color Rainbow Options Valuation for Economic Sustainability Appraisement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonggu Kim

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This research determines the optimal investment timing using real options valuation to support decision-making for economic sustainability assessment. This paper illustrates an option pricing model using the Black-Scholes model applied to a case project to understand the model performance. Applicability of the project to the model requires two Monte Carlo simulations to satisfy a Markov process and a Wiener process. The position of project developers is not only the seller of products, but it is also the buyer of raw materials. Real options valuation can be influenced by the volatility of cash outflow, as well as the volatility of cash inflow. This study suggests two-color rainbow options valuation to overcome this issue, which is demonstrated for a steel plant project. The asymmetric results of the case study show that cash outflow (put option influences the value of the steel plant project more than cash inflow (call option does of which the discussion of the results is referred to a sensitivity analysis. The real options valuation method proposed in this study contributes to the literature on applying the new model, taking into consideration that investors maximize project profitability for economic sustainable development.

Kin-Driver: a database of driver mutations in protein kinases.

Science.gov (United States)

Simonetti, Franco L; Tornador, Cristian; Nabau-Moretó, Nuria; Molina-Vila, Miguel A; Marino-Buslje, Cristina

2014-01-01

Somatic mutations in protein kinases (PKs) are frequent driver events in many human tumors, while germ-line mutations are associated with hereditary diseases. Here we present Kin-driver, the first database that compiles driver mutations in PKs with experimental evidence demonstrating their functional role. Kin-driver is a manual expert-curated database that pays special attention to activating mutations (AMs) and can serve as a validation set to develop new generation tools focused on the prediction of gain-of-function driver mutations. It also offers an easy and intuitive environment to facilitate the visualization and analysis of mutations in PKs. Because all mutations are mapped onto a multiple sequence alignment, analogue positions between kinases can be identified and tentative new mutations can be proposed for studying by transferring annotation. Finally, our database can also be of use to clinical and translational laboratories, helping them to identify uncommon AMs that can correlate with response to new antitumor drugs. The website was developed using PHP and JavaScript, which are supported by all major browsers; the database was built using MySQL server. Kin-driver is available at: http://kin-driver.leloir.org.ar/ © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

Giga-Investments: Modelling the Valuation of Very Large Industrial Real Investments

OpenAIRE

Collan, Mikael

2004-01-01

In this doctoral dissertation characteristics of very large industrial real investments (VLIRI) are investigated and a special group of VLIRI is defined as giga-investments. The investment decision-making regarding to giga-investments is discussed from the points of view of discounted cash-flow based methods and real option valuation. Based on the bacground of establishing giga-investments, state-of-the-art in capital budgeting (including real options) and by applying fuzzy numbers a novel me...

An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

Science.gov (United States)

Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

2012-11-01

Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is

The Effects of Abandonment Options on Investment Timing and Profit Sharing of FDI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weiwei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper incorporates cooperative game theory into a real option method in a foreign direct investment setting and examines the operational decisions of a multinational corporation in a cooperative framework, where the corporation is endowed with an abandonment option and shares its profit with the host country. In particular, we investigate how the abandonment options affect the optimal investment timing and the optimal profit share of a foreign direct investment using a real option game method. We show that the flexibility of the abandonment option induces the corporation to investment earlier, which indicates the negative effects on investment trigger. The result is consistent with intuition since the abandonment option provides insurance and thus reduces the overall risk of the project. We also find that the introduction of the abandonment option reduces the optimal profit share in a cooperative framework and in turn the lower profit share increases the investment trigger, thereby having a positive effect on the investment threshold to hinder the investment. By numerical analysis, we find that the overall effect of the abandonment options is inversely related to the investment trigger. These findings provide quantitative analysis about the decisions regarding cooperation in international investment extraction projects.

Drivers of atmospheric evaporative demand during African droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Blakeley, S. L.; Harrison, L.; Hobbins, M.; Dewes, C.; Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.

2017-12-01

Seeking to advance the practice of famine early warning across sub-Saharan Africa we illuminate past drivers of high-impact droughts to gain a better understanding of the evaporative processes involved in drought dynamics. Atmospheric evaporative demand (ETo) is often used to estimate plant water balance and drought impacts to vegetation, and previously demonstrated linkages between precipitation, temperature, and ETo need to be better understood. This work is timely as new data streams will enable near-real-time monitoring of ETo and incorporation of ETo forecasts into seasonal outlooks for African growing seasons. For historical droughts during major growing seasons in sub-Saharan Africa, we evaluate ETo and identify main drivers for drought cases-identified based on below-normal precipitation during the wettest three months of the growing season-and contrast these with the ETo drivers that dominate in wetter years (we also consider droughts triggered by above normal ETo). Our focus is on regions of Africa where adequate precipitation is important for productive agriculture and pastoral activities and where evaporative demand might exacerbate moisture limitations. It is expected that important ETo drivers are partly connected with precipitation-related processes but that there are variations between regions and events. The goal here is to provide a generalized understanding of what aspects of evaporative demand historically have posed an additional hazard to plant stress and how precipitation outcomes are responsible for the ETo drivers. In addition, we explore whether there have been discernible changes through time in regard to ETo drivers during below-normal precipitation seasons. Upper and lower terciles of CHIRPS precipitation are used to identify anomalous dry and wet cases. The ETo dataset spans the 1980-near present period and is calculated following ASCE's formulation of Penman-Monteith method driven by daily temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar

Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

2014-01-01

Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in

Driver Behavior and Performance with Augmented Reality Pedestrian Collision Warning: An Outdoor User Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyungil; Gabbard, Joseph L; Anon, Alexandre Miranda; Misu, Teruhisa

2018-04-01

This article investigates the effects of visual warning presentation methods on human performance in augmented reality (AR) driving. An experimental user study was conducted in a parking lot where participants drove a test vehicle while braking for any cross traffic with assistance from AR visual warnings presented on a monoscopic and volumetric head-up display (HUD). Results showed that monoscopic displays can be as effective as volumetric displays for human performance in AR braking tasks. The experiment also demonstrated the benefits of conformal graphics, which are tightly integrated into the real world, such as their ability to guide drivers' attention and their positive consequences on driver behavior and performance. These findings suggest that conformal graphics presented via monoscopic HUDs can enhance driver performance by leveraging the effectiveness of monocular depth cues. The proposed approaches and methods can be used and further developed by future researchers and practitioners to better understand driver performance in AR as well as inform usability evaluation of future automotive AR applications.

Driver style and driver skills – clustering drivers differing in their potential danger in traffic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Laila Marianne; Møller, Mette; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

The Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) and the Driver Skill Inventory (DSI) are two of the most frequently used measures of driving style and driving skill. The motivation behind the present study was to test drivers’ insight into their own driving ability based on a combined use of the DBQ......, annual mileage and accident involvement. 3908 drivers aged 18–84 participated in the survey. The results suggested that the drivers have good insight into their own driving ability, as the driving skill level mirrored the frequency of aberrant driving behaviors. K-means cluster analysis revealed four...... distinct clusters that differed in the frequency of aberrant driving behavior and driving skills, as well as individual characteristics and driving related factors such as annual mileage, accident frequency and number of tickets and fines. Thus, two sub-groups were identified as more unsafe than the two...

Investigating the potential of employer-based "real-time" ridesharing.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

The reemergence of ridesharing as a desirable means of travel is partly attributed to the role mobile phone and social networking technologies could play in enabling the real-time (or dynamic) matching of passengers and drivers producing ...

Impact of gender, organized athletics, and video gaming on driving skills in novice drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Wayne, Nancy L; Miller, Gregory A

2018-01-01

Given that novice drivers tend to be young, and teenagers and young adult drivers are involved in the greatest number of accidents, it is important that we understand what factors impact the driving skills of this population of drivers. The primary aim of the present study was to understand the impact of gender, organized athletics, and video gaming on driving skills of novice drivers under real-world driving conditions. Novice driving students having less than five hours driving experience previous to a normal driving lesson were evaluated on their self-confidence (self-reported) prior to the lesson and driving skill evaluated by their instructor during the course of the lesson. Information was collected about gender, age, whether or not the students were involved in organized athletics, and the extent of their video game playing. There was no impact of gender or extent of video game playing on driving skills. Females were significantly less self-confident with driving than males, but this did not translate to gender differences in driving skills. Being involved in organized athletics-either currently or in the past-significantly enhanced driving skills in both females and males. Finally, novice drivers' age was negatively correlated with driving skills. That is, younger novice drivers (especially males) had better driving skills than older novice drivers. This is counter to popular belief that young drivers lack technical driving skills because they have less experience behind the wheel. Based on the results of the current study, we hypothesize that the relatively high accident rate of younger drivers (especially male drivers) is most likely due to inattention to safety considerations rather than lack of technical driving ability.

On pricing futures options on random binomial tree

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayram, Kamola; Ganikhodjaev, Nasir

2013-01-01

The discrete-time approach to real option valuation has typically been implemented in the finance literature using a binomial tree framework. Instead we develop a new model by randomizing the environment and call such model a random binomial tree. Whereas the usual model has only one environment (u, d) where the price of underlying asset can move by u times up and d times down, and pair (u, d) is constant over the life of the underlying asset, in our new model the underlying security is moving in two environments namely (u 1 , d 1 ) and (u 2 , d 2 ). Thus we obtain two volatilities σ 1 and σ 2 . This new approach enables calculations reflecting the real market since it consider the two states of market normal and extra ordinal. In this paper we define and study Futures options for such models.

The Decoy Effect as a Nudge: Boosting Hand Hygiene With a Worse Option.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Meng; Sun, Yan; Chen, Hui

2018-05-01

This article provides the first test of the decoy effect as a nudge to influence real-world behavior. The decoy effect is the phenomenon that an additional but worse option can boost the appeal of an existing option. It has been widely demonstrated in hypothetical choices, but its usefulness in real-world settings has been subject to debate. In three longitudinal experiments in food-processing factories, we tested two decoy sanitation options that were worse than the existing sanitizer spray bottle. Results showed that the presence of a decoy, but not an additional copy of the original sanitizer bottle in a different color, drastically increased food workers' hand sanitizer use from the original sanitizer bottle and, consequently, improved workers' passing rate in hand sanitary tests from 60% to 70% to above 90% for 20 days. These findings indicate that the decoy effect can be a powerful nudge technique to influence real-world behavior.

Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

2017-01-01

calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

Physician input and licensing of at-risk drivers: a review of all-inclusive medical evaluation forms in the US and Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Meuser, Thomas M; Berg-Weger, Marla; Niewoehner, Patricia M; Harmon, Annie C; Kuenzie, Jill C; Carr, David B; Barco, Peggy P

2012-05-01

This article details a systematic review of medical evaluation forms in support of licensing decisions for medically at-risk drivers. Comparisons were made between all-inclusive forms utilized by 52 State and Provincial Departments of Motor Vehicles (DMVs) in the US and Canada. Comparisons focused on length, format, content, instructional quality, medical coverage, ease of use, and other qualitative characteristics. Median page length was 2 (range 1-10), and mean word count was 1083 (494-3884). Common response options included open-ended (98%), forced choice (87%), and check box (81%). While the majority of forms (77%) required driver consent, only 24% requested information from the driver. Less than half (46%) included text on confidentiality protection. While all forms requested general medical information, just over half included specific sections for vision (54%) and cognitive/neurological conditions (56%). Most forms (81%) required that a judgment be made concerning driver safety, and half prompted for possible license restrictions. Criterion-based quality ratings were assigned on a five-point Likert scale by group consensus. One third of forms were rated as marginal or poor in comprehensiveness and utility, and just two garnered an excellent overall rating. Findings are discussed relative to current research on driver fitness and elements of a proposed model form. Best practice recommendations include a page length limitation, emphasis on in-person evaluation (i.e., as opposed to a records-only review), prompts to collect crash and other driving history information, clear instructions and stepwise format, content prompts across relevant medical categories, documentation of functional status and impairment levels, options for driving with restrictions in lieu of de-licensing, and emphasis on relative (vs. absolute) clinical judgments of overall driver safety. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Schoolbus driver performance can be improved with driver training ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

and compares the school transport driver performance with that of general motorists. Despite concerns that ... To compare Safe Travel to School Programme driver safety perfor- .... The SA government has recognised the challenges faced with.

Strategic Options for Vietnamese Tea Processors in the Global Value Chain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Olav Jull; Luong Thi Ngoc, Oanh; Nguyen Thi Hai, Yen

2009-01-01

The aim of the chapter is to study the position of Vietnamese tea producers, processors and traders in the Global Value CHain for tea and analyse the strategic options at various levels of the chain. The dominant governance at the Vietnamese level is found to be the market and this puts constraints...... on the possibilities for upgrading and for identifying a local driver of the chain. A few transnational companies dominate the global value chain for tea....

Heavy-ion driver parametric studies and choice of a base 5 mega-joule driver design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bieri, R.; Meier, W.

1992-01-01

Parametric studies to optimize heavy-ion driver designs are described and an optimized 5 MJ driver design is described. Parametric studies are done on driver parameters including driver energy, number of beams, type of superconductor used in focusing magnets, maximum magnetic field allowed at the superconducting windings, axial quadrupole field packing fraction, ion mass, and ion charge state. All modeled drivers use the maximum beam currents allowed by the Maschke limits; driver scaling is described in a companion paper. The optimized driver described is conservative and cost effective. The base driver direct costs are only $120/Joule, and the base driver uses no recirculation, beam combination, or beam separation. The low driver cost achieved is due, in part, to the use of compact Nb 3 Sn quadrupole arrays, but results primarily from optimization over the large, multi-dimensional, parameter space available for heavy-ion drivers

Estimation of petroleum assets: contribution of the options theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chesney, M.

1999-01-01

With the development of data on real options, the theoretical and practical research on projects estimation has advanced considerably. The analogy between investment advisabilities and options allow to take into account the flexibility which is inherent in any project as well as the choices which are available to investors. The advantages of this approach are shown in this paper. An example of application in the field of petroleum industry is given. (O.M.)

Development of a Real-Time Detection System for Augmented Reality Driving

OpenAIRE

Hsu, Kuei-Shu; Wang, Chia-Sui; Jiang, Jinn-Feng; Wei, Hung-Yuan

2015-01-01

Augmented reality technology is applied so that driving tests may be performed in various environments using a virtual reality scenario with the ultimate goal of improving visual and interactive effects of simulated drivers. Environmental conditions simulating a real scenario are created using an augmented reality structure, which guarantees the test taker’s security since they are not subject to real-life elements and dangers. Furthermore, the accuracy of tests conducted through virtual real...

Real Options Valuation of U.S. Federal Renewable Energy Research,Development, Demonstration, and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

2005-03-01

Benefits analysis of US Federal government funded research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) programs for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and nonrenewable fuels. The benefits estimate for a program derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD3 in place. The deficiencies of the current approach are threefold: (1) it does not consider uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE), and the option or insurance value of deploying RE if and when NRE costs rise; (2) it does not consider the ability of the RD3 manager to adjust the RD3 effort to suit the evolving state of the world, and the option value of this flexibility; and (3) it does not consider the underlying technical risk associated with RD3, and the impact of that risk on the programs optimal level of RD3 effort. In this paper, a rudimentary approach to determining the option value of publicly funded RE RD3 is developed. The approach seeks to tackle the first deficiency noted above by providing an estimate of the options benefit of an RE RD3 program in a future with uncertain NRE costs.While limited by severe assumptions, a computable lattice of options values reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process. An illustrative example indicates how options expose both the insurance and timing values inherent in a simplified RE RD3 program that coarsely approximates the aggregation of current Federal RE RD3.This paper also discusses the severe limitations of this initial approach, and identifies needed model improvements before the approach can adequately respond to the RE RD3 analysis challenge.

7 CFR 1781.14 - Planning, options, and appraisals.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... designated agent when a WS loan, WS advance or RCD loan is made. (d) Options and appraisals related to the purchase of real estate for which a WS loan, WS advance, or RCD loan is made must be developed in...

The drivers of the nuclear renaissance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dias, Marcio Soares; Mattos, Joao Roberto Loureiro de

2008-01-01

The renaissance of the nuclear option for generating electric energy is stimulated by its economic competitiveness and its social and environmental benefits. Presently, nuclear energy is a key component to the rapid expansion of world electricity consumption. Drivers of the nuclear renaissance are: the growth of public acceptance as result of the historic demonstration of safety; the economic competitiveness in the costs of generation; the incorporation of innovations and technological advances with impacts on main barriers like the reducing of the capital investments and technological solutions for destination of the radioactive wastes. The nuclear retaken already affects the international Uranium market with records of negotiated volumes and a rise of prices. Brazil as detainer of some of the biggest reserves of Uranium in the world has much to profit with this retaken. (author)

Some thoughts about millimeter-wave drivers for future linear colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nusinovich, Gregory S.

2001-01-01

In this paper, an attempt is made to overview some problems important for the development of high-power millimeter-wave drivers for future linear colliders. Since the microwave pulse duration required at high frequencies is much shorter than at low ones, two options seem possible. The first one is to develop 'moderate' power level, long-pulse tubes based on relatively reliable technology and then greatly compress these microwave pulses. The second one is to operate at much higher voltages and to directly generate very high-power pulses of the required length. Besides discussing pros and cons of these options, an overview of the methods of mode selection in oversized microwave circuits required for producing multimegawatt power at millimeter wavelengths is presented. Also the issue of thermal limitations caused by microwave losses in circuit walls is discussed, and some scaling laws for the maximum power and pulse duration are given

A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

Far-infrared pedestrian detection for advanced driver assistance systems using scene context

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guohua; Liu, Qiong; Wu, Qingyao

2016-04-01

Pedestrian detection is one of the most critical but challenging components in advanced driver assistance systems. Far-infrared (FIR) images are well-suited for pedestrian detection even in a dark environment. However, most current detection approaches just focus on pedestrian patterns themselves, where robust and real-time detection cannot be well achieved. We propose a fast FIR pedestrian detection approach, called MAP-HOGLBP-T, to explicitly exploit the scene context for the driver assistance system. In MAP-HOGLBP-T, three algorithms are developed to exploit the scene contextual information from roads, vehicles, and background objects of high homogeneity, and we employ the Bayesian approach to build a classifier learner which respects the scene contextual information. We also develop a multiframe approval scheme to enhance the detection performance based on spatiotemporal continuity of pedestrians. Our empirical study on real-world datasets has demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method. The performance is shown to be better than that of state-of-the-art low-level feature-based approaches.

LabVIEW Real-Time

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Flockhart, Ronald Bruce; Seppey, P

2003-01-01

With LabVIEW Real-Time, you can choose from a variety of RT Series hardware. Add a real-time data acquisition component into a larger measurement and automation system or create a single stand-alone real-time solution with data acquisition, signal conditioning, motion control, RS-232, GPIB instrumentation, and Ethernet connectivity. With the various hardware options, you can create a system to meet your precise needs today, while the modularity of the system means you can add to the solution as your system requirements grow. If you are interested in Reliable and Deterministic systems for Measurement and Automation, you will profit from this seminar. Agenda: Real-Time Overview LabVIEW RT Hardware Platforms - Linux on PXI Programming with LabVIEW RT Real-Time Operating Systems concepts Timing Applications Data Transfer

Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Chai

Full Text Available The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes.

Impact of gender, organized athletics, and video gaming on driving skills in novice drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Gregory A.

2018-01-01

Given that novice drivers tend to be young, and teenagers and young adult drivers are involved in the greatest number of accidents, it is important that we understand what factors impact the driving skills of this population of drivers. The primary aim of the present study was to understand the impact of gender, organized athletics, and video gaming on driving skills of novice drivers under real-world driving conditions. Novice driving students having less than five hours driving experience previous to a normal driving lesson were evaluated on their self-confidence (self-reported) prior to the lesson and driving skill evaluated by their instructor during the course of the lesson. Information was collected about gender, age, whether or not the students were involved in organized athletics, and the extent of their video game playing. There was no impact of gender or extent of video game playing on driving skills. Females were significantly less self-confident with driving than males, but this did not translate to gender differences in driving skills. Being involved in organized athletics—either currently or in the past—significantly enhanced driving skills in both females and males. Finally, novice drivers’ age was negatively correlated with driving skills. That is, younger novice drivers (especially males) had better driving skills than older novice drivers. This is counter to popular belief that young drivers lack technical driving skills because they have less experience behind the wheel. Based on the results of the current study, we hypothesize that the relatively high accident rate of younger drivers (especially male drivers) is most likely due to inattention to safety considerations rather than lack of technical driving ability. PMID:29364957

Education and driver-training

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Justinek

1999-12-01

Full Text Available The characteristics of the driver are manifested in his/her behaviour. For safe driving one must have a driver's knowledge. The contents of educational material are determined by law, and are both theoretical and practical, yet frequently they do not suffice to meet the requirements of safe driving. In this paper, the author suggests that, in the training of drivers, more educational elements should be included, such a would have  an effective influence on the driver's moti ves and attitudes. The driver's motives - which may result in incorrect driving­ are diverse: most often, the default is overspeeding, even though the drivers always over-estimate the potential time gain. In fact, over-fast driving is a way of satisfying other, different needs; and, above all, it is a form of compensation for unsettled life problems, and at the same time an indication of the driver's personal inability to cope with stress.

Reducing risky driver behaviour through the implementation of a driver risk management system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rose Luke

2014-11-01

Full Text Available South Africa has one of the highest incidences of road accidents in the world. Most accidents are avoidable and are caused by driver behaviour and errors. The purpose of this article was to identify the riskiest driver behaviours in commercial fleets in South Africa, to determine the business impact of such behaviour, to establish a framework for the management of risky driver behaviour and to test the framework by applying a leading commercial driver behaviour management system as a case study. The case study comprised three South African commercial fleets. Using data from these fleets, critical incident triangles were used to determine the ratio data of risky driver behaviour to near-collisions and collisions. Based on managing the riskiest driver behaviours as causes of more serious incidents and accidents, the results indicated that through the implementation of an effective driver risk management system, risky incidents were significantly reduced.

Assessing drivers' response during automated driver support system failures with non-driving tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Sijun; Neyens, David M

2017-06-01

With the increase in automated driver support systems, drivers are shifting from operating their vehicles to supervising their automation. As a result, it is important to understand how drivers interact with these automated systems and evaluate their effect on driver responses to safety critical events. This study aimed to identify how drivers responded when experiencing a safety critical event in automated vehicles while also engaged in non-driving tasks. In total 48 participants were included in this driving simulator study with two levels of automated driving: (a) driving with no automation and (b) driving with adaptive cruise control (ACC) and lane keeping (LK) systems engaged; and also two levels of a non-driving task (a) watching a movie or (b) no non-driving task. In addition to driving performance measures, non-driving task performance and the mean glance duration for the non-driving task were compared between the two levels of automated driving. Drivers using the automated systems responded worse than those manually driving in terms of reaction time, lane departure duration, and maximum steering wheel angle to an induced lane departure event. These results also found that non-driving tasks further impaired driver responses to a safety critical event in the automated system condition. In the automated driving condition, driver responses to the safety critical events were slower, especially when engaged in a non-driving task. Traditional driver performance variables may not necessarily effectively and accurately evaluate driver responses to events when supervising autonomous vehicle systems. Thus, it is important to develop and use appropriate variables to quantify drivers' performance under these conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Modeling of Driver Steering Operations in Lateral Wind Disturbances toward Driver Assistance System

Science.gov (United States)

Kurata, Yoshinori; Wada, Takahiro; Kamiji, Norimasa; Doi, Shun'ichi

Disturbances decrease vehicle stability and increase driver's mental and physical workload. Especially unexpected disturbances such as lateral winds have severe effect on vehicle stability and driver's workload. This study aims at building a driver model of steering operations in lateral wind toward developing effective driver assistance system. First, the relationship between the driver's lateral motion and its reactive quick steering behavior is investigated using driving simulator with lateral 1dof motion. In the experiments, four different wind patterns are displayed by the simulator. As the results, strong correlation was found between the driver's head lateral jerk by the lateral disturbance and the angular acceleration of the steering wheel. Then, we build a mathematical model of driver's steering model from lateral disturbance input to steering torque of the reactive quick feed-forward steering based on the experimental results. Finally, validity of the proposed model is shown by comparing the steering torque of experimental results and that of simulation results.

A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

2017-09-01

The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andres R. Jácome

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H and exit (L prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

2017-01-01

The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

2010-01-01

Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

Cognitive functioning differentially predicts different dimensions of older drivers' on-road safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Aksan, Nazan; Anderson, Steve W; Dawson, Jeffrey; Uc, Ergun; Rizzo, Matthew

2015-02-01

The extent to which deficits in specific cognitive domains contribute to older drivers' safety risk in complex real-world driving tasks is not well understood. We selected 148 drivers older than 70 years of age both with and without neurodegenerative diseases (Alzheimer disease-AD and Parkinson disease-PD) from an existing driving database of older adults. Participant assessments included on-road driving safety and cognitive functioning in visuospatial construction, speed of processing, memory, and executive functioning. The standardized on-road drive test was designed to examine multiple facets of older driver safety including navigation performance (e.g., following a route, identifying landmarks), safety errors while concurrently performing secondary navigation tasks ("on-task" safety errors), and safety errors in the absence of any secondary navigation tasks ("baseline" safety errors). The inter-correlations of these outcome measures were fair to moderate supporting their distinctiveness. Participants with diseases performed worse than the healthy aging group on all driving measures and differences between those with AD and PD were minimal. In multivariate analyses, different domains of cognitive functioning predicted distinct facets of driver safety on road. Memory and set-shifting predicted performance in navigation-related secondary tasks, speed of processing predicted on-task safety errors, and visuospatial construction predicted baseline safety errors. These findings support broad assessments of cognitive functioning to inform decisions regarding older driver safety on the road and suggest navigation performance may be useful in evaluating older driver fitness and restrictions in licensing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drivers behind the development of forest energy in Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjoerheden, Rolf

2006-01-01

The use of forest fuels has more than doubled in Sweden over the last 25-30 years. Almost a fifth of the utilized energy is now based on forest biomass. Concurrently, real prices of bioenergy have decreased to less than a third of what they were 25 years ago. Some principal driving forces behind this development are identified and discussed in this paper. The origin of this development was equally the result of a foreseen shortage of fibre and a reaction to this vulnerable position, made obvious through the 'oil crises'. Although Sweden has a long tradition of large-scale use of forest energy, 35 years ago she was almost totally dependent on imported oil. Forest mechanisation provided rational solutions to handling small diameter wood and stumps in conventional industrial processes, but also enabled the economical use of such wood for energy. During 3 decades of development, drivers and obstacles have shifted. What started to reduce dependence on fossil fuels was later driven by increased general environmental awareness. An emerging 'green' lobby blocked the development of nuclear power and expanded harnessing of hydropower which were alternative means of self-sufficiency. In the last 10-15 years, focus has changed again. Global concern for climatic change due to emissions of greenhouse gases is a powerful driver, endorsing increased use of CO 2 -neutral energy sources. Sustainability, resource cycling and the welfare of future generations are seen as goals for continued development. Ideals and policies do not, however, automatically induce change in regular operations. A set of drivers is identified, that has played the decisive role in practice. These include the direct technical-operational drivers, as well as indirect drivers through market development, taxation and other legislation

Examination of supplemental driver training and online basic driver education courses : traffic tech.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-01

The first six months of unsupervised driving are the most : hazardous in a novice drivers driving experience. Most : States adopted graduated driver licensing (GDL) systems : to give novice drivers experience in a protective environment, : gradual...

Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

Science.gov (United States)

Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

2018-05-01

The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

An application of the driver behavior questionnaire to Chinese carless young drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Jiang, Zuhua; Zheng, Dongpeng; Wang, Yifan; Man, Dong

2013-01-01

Carless young drivers refers to those drivers aged between 18 and 25 years who have a driver's license but seldom have opportunities to practice their driving skills because they do not have their own cars. Due to China's lower private car ownership, many young drivers turn into carless young drivers after licensure, and the safety issue associated with them has become a matter of great concern in China. Because few studies have examined the driving behaviors of these drivers, this study aims to utilize the Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) to investigate the self-reported driving behaviors of Chinese carless young drivers. A total of 523 Chinese carless young drivers (214 females, 309 males) with an average age of 21.91 years completed a questionnaire including the 27-item DBQ and demographics. The data were first randomized into 2 subsamples for factor analysis and then combined together for the following analyses. Both an exploratory factor analysis (EFA, n = 174) and a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA, n = 349) were performed to investigate the factor structure of the DBQ. Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between the demographics and the DBQ scales' variables. Multivariate linear regression and logistic regression were performed to investigate the prediction of the DBQ scales and crash involvement in the previous year. The EFA produced a 4-factor structure identified as errors, violations, attention lapses, and memory lapses, and the CFA revealed a good model fit after the removal of one item with a low factor loading and the permission of the error covariance between some items. The Chinese carless young drivers reported a comparatively low level of aberrant driving behaviors. The 3 most frequently reported behaviors were all lapses and the 3 least were all violations. Gender was the only significant predictor of the 2 lapses scales and lifetime mileage was the only significant predictor of the violations scale. Only the

[The use of biological age on mental work capacity model in accelerated aging assessment of professional lorry-drivers].

Science.gov (United States)

Bashkireva, A S

2012-01-01

The studies of biological age, aging rate, mental work capacity in professional drivers were conducted. The examination revealed peculiarities of system organization of functions determining the mental work capacity levels. Dynamics of the aging process of professional driver's organism in relation with calendar age and driving experience were shown using the biological age model. The results point at the premature decrease of the mental work capacity in professional drivers. It was proved, that premature age-related changes of physiologic and psychophysiologic indices in drivers are just "risk indicators", while long driving experience is a real risk factor, accelerating the aging process. The "risk group" with manifestations of accelerating aging was observed in 40-49-year old drivers with 15-19 years of professional experience. The expediency of using the following methods for the age rate estimation according to biologic age indices and necessity of prophylactic measures for premature and accelerated aging prevention among working population was demonstrated.

Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling

Science.gov (United States)

Cucchiella, Federica; D'Adamo, Idiano; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

2014-06-01

Green supply chain management (GSCM) has emerged as a key approach for enterprises seeking to become environmentally sustainable. This paper aims to evaluate and describe the advantages of a GSCM approach by analysing practices and performance consequences in the battery recycling sector. It seeks to integrate works in supply chain management (SCM), environmental management, performance management and real option (RO) theory into one framework. In particular, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of a battery recycling plant project, and life cycle costing (LCC) is applied to evaluate its economic impact. Firms, also understanding the relevance of GSCM, have often avoided applying the green principles because of the elevated costs that such management involved. Such costs could also seem superior to the potential advantages since standard performance measurement systems are internally and business focused; for these reasons, we consider all the possible value deriving also by uncertainty associated to a green project using the RO theory. This work is one of the few and pioneering efforts to investigate GSCM practices in the battery recycling sector.

Combining Front Vehicle Detection with 3D Pose Estimation for a Better Driver Assistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Peng

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Driver assistant systems enhance traffic safety and efficiency. The accurate 3D pose of a front vehicle can help a driver to make the right decision on the road. We propose a novel real-time system to estimate the 3D pose of the front vehicle. This system consists of two parallel threads: vehicle rear tracking and mapping. The vehicle rear is first identified in the video captured by an onboard camera, after license plate localization and foreground extraction. The 3D pose estimation technique is then employed with respect to the extracted vehicle rear. Most current 3D pose estimation techniques need prior models or a stereo initialization with user cooperation. It is extremely difficult to obtain prior models due to the varying appearance of vehicles' rears. Moreover, it is unsafe to ask for drivers' cooperation when a vehicle is running. In our system, two initial keyframes for stereo algorithms are automatically extracted by vehicle rear detection and tracking. Map points are defined as a collection of point features extracted from the vehicle's rear with their 3D information. These map points are inferences that relate the 2D features detected in following vehicles' rears with the 3D world. The relative 3D pose of the onboard camera to the front vehicle rear is then estimated through matching the map points with point features detected on the front vehicle rear. We demonstrate the capabilities of our system by testing on real-time and synthesized videos. In order to make the experimental analysis visible, we demonstrated an estimated 3D pose through augmented reality, which needs accurate and real-time 3D pose estimation.

The Drive-Wise Project: Driving Simulator Training increases real driving performance in healthy older drivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gianclaudio eCasutt

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Age-related cognitive decline is often associated with unsafe driving behavior. We hypothesized that 10 active training sessions in a driving simulator increase cognitive and on-road driving performance. In addition, driving simulator training should outperform cognitive training.Methods: Ninety-one healthy active drivers (62 – 87 years were randomly assigned to either (1 a driving simulator training group, (2 an attention training group (vigilance and selective attention, or (3 a control group. The main outcome variables were on-road driving and cognitive performance. Seventy-seven participants (85% completed the training and were included in the analyses. Training gains were analyzed using a multiple regression analysis with planned comparisons.Results: The driving simulator training group showed an improvement in on-road driving performance compared to the attention training group. In addition, both training groups increased cognitive performance compared to the control group. Conclusion: Driving simulator training offers the potential to enhance driving skills in older drivers. Compared to the attention training, the simulator training seems to be a more powerful program for increasing older drivers’ safety on the road.

The effect of lighting conditions and use of headlights on drivers' perception and appraisal of approaching vehicles at junctions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yee Mun; Sheppard, Elizabeth

2018-03-01

Use of Daytime Running Lights (DRL) is mandatory in many countries for motorcycles, and in some for cars. However, in developing countries, DRLs may be optional or compliance low. The effect of car or motorcycle headlights and lighting conditions on Malaysian drivers' ability to perceive and judge the safety of pulling out was investigated. Stimuli were photographs depicting either daytime or nighttime taken at a T-junction with approaching vehicles with headlights on or off. Headlights improved drivers' ability to perceive cars and motorcycles in the nighttime photographs but not the daytime photographs, although this could be due to the bright weather in the photographs. Drivers judged it less safe to pull out when approaching motorcycles had headlights on than off, regardless of the lighting conditions, supporting the utility of DRL for motorcycles. Headlights did not affect judgements for cars, questioning the utility of DRL for cars. Practitioner Summary: The effect of headlights and lighting conditions on drivers' ability to perceive and make judgements about the safety of pulling out was investigated. Daytime Running Lights influenced drivers' decision-making about the safety of pulling out in front of motorcycles, illustrating the importance of having automatic headlights equipped.

Decentralized real-time simulation of forest machines

Science.gov (United States)

Freund, Eckhard; Adam, Frank; Hoffmann, Katharina; Rossmann, Juergen; Kraemer, Michael; Schluse, Michael

2000-10-01

To develop realistic forest machine simulators is a demanding task. A useful simulator has to provide a close- to-reality simulation of the forest environment as well as the simulation of the physics of the vehicle. Customers demand a highly realistic three dimensional forestry landscape and the realistic simulation of the complex motion of the vehicle even in rough terrain in order to be able to use the simulator for operator training under close-to- reality conditions. The realistic simulation of the vehicle, especially with the driver's seat mounted on a motion platform, greatly improves the effect of immersion into the virtual reality of a simulated forest and the achievable level of education of the driver. Thus, the connection of the real control devices of forest machines to the simulation system has to be supported, i.e. the real control devices like the joysticks or the board computer system to control the crane, the aggregate etc. Beyond, the fusion of the board computer system and the simulation system is realized by means of sensors, i.e. digital and analog signals. The decentralized system structure allows several virtual reality systems to evaluate and visualize the information of the control devices and the sensors. So, while the driver is practicing, the instructor can immerse into the same virtual forest to monitor the session from his own viewpoint. In this paper, we are describing the realized structure as well as the necessary software and hardware components and application experiences.

Empirical Study towards the Drivers of Sustainable Economic Growth in EU-28 Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Ştefan Armeanu

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims at empirically investigating the drivers of sustainable economic growth in EU-28 countries. By means of panel data regression models, in the form of fixed and random effects models, alongside system generalized method of moments, we examine several drivers of real gross domestic product (GDP growth rate, as follows: higher education, business environment, infrastructure, technology, communications, and media, population lifestyle, and demographic changes. As regards higher education, the empirical results show that expenditure per student in higher education and traditional 18–22 year-old students are positively linked with sustainable economic growth, whereas science and technology graduates negatively influence real GDP growth. In terms of business environment, total expenditure on research and development and employment rates of recent graduates contributes to sustainable development, but corruption perceptions index revealed a negative association with economic growth. As well, the results provide support for a negative influence of infrastructure abreast technological measures on economic growth. Besides, we found a negative connection between old-age dependency ratio and sustainable economic growth.

Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

the sale of assets for salvage value. However, for defense R&D projects, since there is no secondhand market for the projects, this option is...Peli, 2001; Panayi & Trigeorgis, 1998; Perlitz et al., 1999). Moreover, there are also very comprehensive books on the theory and practice of

VALORACIÓN DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO (CFAR EN LAS EPS A TRAVÉS DE OPCIONES REALES: UNA APLICACIÓN AL NIVEL DE ATENCIÓN IV Financial Risk Valuation (CFARin EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mónica A. Arango Arango

2011-12-01

Full Text Available El número de pacientes tratados por insuficiencia renal en Colombia es cada vez mayor; por esta razón conocer los costos asociados a esta enfermedad es una necesidad manifiesta de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud con el fin de garantizar la estabilidad del Sistema de Seguridad Social en Salud. Este trabajo evalúa financieramente, mediante opciones reales, la posibilidad de hacer un trasplante de riñón en un paciente bajo tratamiento de insuficiencia renal y el Flujo de Caja en Riesgo al tener en cuenta esta opción. Se encontró que al hacer un análisis periódico de los costos asociados a continuar con el tratamiento, existen casos en los que es más eficiente hacer el trasplante, disminuyendo el valor presente de las erogaciones del paciente, mejorando el flujo de caja en riesgo y controlando los gastos futuros de la entidad que lo atiende.Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

Characteristics of Chinese Driver Behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, J.

2014-01-01

The high growth rate of vehicle ownership and many novel drivers in China determine the special features of Chinese driver behavior. This thesis introduces a comparative study on driver behavior by the analysis of saturation flow at urban intersections, Driver Behavior Questionnaire surveys, focus

Novel treatment options for portal hypertension

Science.gov (United States)

Laleman, Wim

2017-01-01

Abstract Portal hypertension is most frequently associated with cirrhosis and is a major driver for associated complications, such as variceal bleeding, ascites or hepatic encephalopathy. As such, clinically significant portal hypertension forms the prelude to decompensation and impacts significantly on the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis. At present, non-selective β-blockers, vasopressin analogues and somatostatin analogues are the mainstay of treatment but these strategies are far from satisfactory and only target splanchnic hyperemia. In contrast, safe and reliable strategies to reduce the increased intrahepatic resistance in cirrhotic patients still represent a pending issue. In recent years, several preclinical and clinical trials have focused on this latter component and other therapeutic avenues. In this review, we highlight novel data in this context and address potentially interesting therapeutic options for the future. PMID:28533907

Can vehicle longitudinal jerk be used to identify aggressive drivers? An examination using naturalistic driving data.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Fred; Bao, Shan; Sayer, James R; Flannagan, Carol; Manser, Michael; Wunderlich, Robert

2017-07-01

This paper investigated the characteristics of vehicle longitudinal jerk (change rate of acceleration with respect to time) by using vehicle sensor data from an existing naturalistic driving study. The main objective was to examine whether vehicle jerk contains useful information that could be potentially used to identify aggressive drivers. Initial investigation showed that there are unique characteristics of vehicle jerk in drivers' gas and brake pedal operations. Thus two jerk-based metrics were examined: (1) driver's frequency of using large positive jerk when pressing the gas pedal, and (2) driver's frequency of using large negative jerk when pressing the brake pedal. To validate the performance of the two metrics, drivers were firstly divided into an aggressive group and a normal group using three classification methods (1) traveling at excessive speed (speeding), (2) following too closely to a front vehicle (tailgating), and (3) their association with crashes or near-crashes in the dataset. The results show that those aggressive drivers defined using any of the three methods above were associated with significantly higher values of the two jerk-based metrics. Between the two metrics the frequency of using large negative jerk seems to have better performance in identifying aggressive drivers. A sensitivity analysis shows the findings were largely consistent with varying parameters in the analysis. The potential applications of this work include developing quantitative surrogate safety measures to identify aggressive drivers and aggressive driving, which could be potentially used to, for example, provide real-time or post-ride performance feedback to the drivers, or warn the surrounding drivers or vehicles using the connected vehicle technologies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of managerial stock option programs in governance: evidence from REIT stock repurchases

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghosh, C.; Giambona, E.; Harding, J.P.; Sezer, O.; Sirmans, C.F.

2010-01-01

This article examines the role of stock option programs and executive holdings of stock options in real estate investment trust (REIT) governance. We study the issue by analyzing how the market reaction to a stock repurchase announcement varies as a function of the individual REIT's governance

Acoustic Levitation With One Driver

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, T. G.; Rudnick, I.; Elleman, D. D.; Stoneburner, J. D.

1985-01-01

Report discusses acoustic levitation in rectangular chamber using one driver mounted at corner. Placement of driver at corner enables it to couple effectively to acoustic modes along all three axes. Use of single driver reduces cost, complexity and weight of levitation system below those of three driver system.

Distraction 'on the buses': a novel framework of ergonomics methods for identifying sources and effects of bus driver distraction.

Science.gov (United States)

Salmon, Paul M; Young, Kristie L; Regan, Michael A

2011-05-01

Driver distraction represents a significant problem in the public transport sector. Various methods exist for investigating distraction; however, the majority are difficult to apply within the context of naturalistic bus driving. This article investigates the nature of bus driver distraction at a major Australian public transport company, including the sources of distraction present, and their effects on driver performance, through the application of a novel framework of ergonomics methods. The framework represents a novel approach for assessing distraction in a real world context. The findings suggest that there are a number of sources of distraction that could potentially distract bus drivers while driving, including those that derive from the driving task itself, and those that derive from the additional requirements associated with bus operation, such as passenger and ticketing-related distractions. A taxonomy of the sources of bus driver distraction identified is presented, along with a discussion of proposed countermeasures designed to remove the sources identified or mitigate their effects on driver performance. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

North American natural gas outlook : does gas remain a fuel option for oil sands?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

George, R.R.

2003-01-01

This paper presents a North America natural gas outlook from Purvin and Gertz, an international energy consulting firm that has 30 years experience in providing strategic, commercial and technical advice to the petroleum industry. In particular, this presentation focuses on natural gas market fundamentals and how they may impact on oil sands development. It includes charts and graphs depicting NYMEX natural gas outlooks to July, 2009 and examines how supply will react to major changes in Canada's supply portfolio. It was noted that oil sands development is a driver for natural gas demand in Alberta. The existing regional gas pipeline infrastructure was presented and the market impact on upgrader options was discussed. The author suggests that if gas prices are too high, there are other fuel options for steam and power generation. These include bitumen, asphalt, coke, coal and nuclear. However, these options have additional costs, uncertainties and environmental issues. A key factor for success would be to have a clear understanding of the benefits and risks between these fuel options. 1 tab., 9 figs

Current trends in laser fusion driver and beam combination laser system using stimulated Brillouin scattering phase conjugate mirrors for a fusion driver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kong, Hong Jin

2008-01-01

Laser fusion energy (LFE) is well known as one of the promising sources if clean energy for mankind. Laser fusion researches have been actively progressed, since Japan and the Soviet Union as well as USA developed ultrahigh power lasers at the beginning of 1970s. At present in USA, NIF (National Ignition Facility), which is the largest laser fusion facility in the world, is under construction and will be completed in 2008. Japan as a leader of the laser fusion research has developed a high energy and high power laser system, Gekko XII, and is under contemplation of FIREX projects for the fast ignition. China also has SG I, II lasers for performing the fusion research, and SG III is under construction as a next step. France is also constructing LMJ (Laser countries, many other developed countries in Europe, such as Russia, Germany, UK, and so on, have their own high energy laser systems for the fusion research. In Korea, the high power laser development started with SinMyung laser in KAIST in 1994, and KLF (KAERI Laser Facility) of KAERI was recently completed in 2007. For the practical use of laser fusion energy, the laser driver should be operated with a high repetition rate around 10Hz. Yet, current high energy laser systems, Such as NIF, Gekko XII, and etc., can be operated with only several shots per day. Some researchers have developed their own techniques to reduce the thermal loads of the laser material, by using laser diodes as pump sources and ceramic laser materials with high thermal energy scaling up for the real fusion driver. For this reason, H. J. Kong et al. proposed the beam combination laser system using stimulated Brillouin scattering phase conjugate mirrors (SBS PCMs) for a fusion driver. Proposed beam combination has many advantages for energy scaling up; it is composed by simple optical systems with small amount of components, there is no interaction between neighbored sub beams, the SBS PCMs can be used for a high energy beam reflection with

Assessing the relationship between the Driver Behavior Questionnaire and the Driver Skill Inventory: Revealing sub-groups of drivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Laila Marianne; Møller, Mette; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2014-01-01

The Driver Behavior Questionnaire and the Driver Skill Inventory are two of the most frequently used measures of self-reported driving style and driving skill. The motivation behind the present study was to identify sub-groups of drivers that potentially act dangerously in traffic (as measured...... self-reported driving skills and whether the reported skill level was reflected in the reported aberrant driving behaviors. 3908 drivers aged 18–84 participated in the survey. K-means cluster analysis revealed four distinct sub-groups that differed in driving skills and frequency of aberrant driving...... by frequency of aberrant driving behaviors and level of driving skills), as well as to test whether the sub-groups differ in characteristics such as age, gender, annual mileage and accident involvement. Furthermore, the joint analysis of the two instruments was used to test drivers’ assessment of their own...

Heavy-ion driver design and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bieri, R.; Monsler, M.; Meier, W.; Stewart, L.

1992-01-01

Parametric models for scaling heavy-ion driver designs are described. Scaling of target performance and driver cost is done for driver parameters including driver energy, number of beams, type of superconductor used in focusing magnets, maximum magnetic field allowed at the superconducting windings, linear quadrupole array packing fraction mass, and ion charge state. The cumulative accelerator voltage and beam currents are determined from the Maschke limits on beam current for each choice of driver energy and post-acceleration pulse duration. The heavy-ion driver is optimized over the large available driver parameter space. Parametric studies and the choice of a base driver model are described in a companion paper

Traffic flow impacts of adaptive cruise control deactivation and (Re)activation with cooperative driver behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klunder, G.; Li, M.; Minderhoud, M.

2009-01-01

In 2006 in the Netherlands, a field operational test was carried out to study the effect of adaptive cruise control (ACC) and lane departure warning on driver behavior and traffic flow in real traffic. To estimate the effect for larger penetration rates, simulations were needed. For a reliable

Mouse-tracking evidence for parallel anticipatory option evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranford, Edward A; Moss, Jarrod

2017-12-23

In fast-paced, dynamic tasks, the ability to anticipate the future outcome of a sequence of events is crucial to quickly selecting an appropriate course of action among multiple alternative options. There are two classes of theories that describe how anticipation occurs. Serial theories assume options are generated and evaluated one at a time, in order of quality, whereas parallel theories assume simultaneous generation and evaluation. The present research examined the option evaluation process during a task designed to be analogous to prior anticipation tasks, but within the domain of narrative text comprehension. Prior research has relied on indirect, off-line measurement of the option evaluation process during anticipation tasks. Because the movement of the hand can provide a window into underlying cognitive processes, online metrics such as continuous mouse tracking provide more fine-grained measurements of cognitive processing as it occurs in real time. In this study, participants listened to three-sentence stories and predicted the protagonists' final action by moving a mouse toward one of three possible options. Each story was presented with either one (control condition) or two (distractor condition) plausible ending options. Results seem most consistent with a parallel option evaluation process because initial mouse trajectories deviated further from the best option in the distractor condition compared to the control condition. It is difficult to completely rule out all possible serial processing accounts, although the results do place constraints on the time frame in which a serial processing explanation must operate.

Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Bao-Jun; Zhou, Hui-Ling; Chen, Hao; Wang, Kai; Cao, Hong

2017-01-01

China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. - Highlights: • Volatility is combined with fluctuations in oil price, exchange rate and political situation. • Hurdle price is adopted as a critical price to measure investment opportunity. • Scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contribute to earlier investment timing.

Older drivers : a review.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hakamies-Blomqvist, L. Sirén, A. & Davidse, R.J.

2004-01-01

The proportion of senior citizens (aged 65+) will grow from about 15 per cent in the year 2000 to about 30 per cent in the year 2050. The share of older drivers in the driver population will grow even faster because of increasing licensing rates among the ageing population. Older drivers do not have

A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

Science.gov (United States)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

Advanced real-time control systems for magnetically confined fusion plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goncalves, B.; Sousa, J.; Fernandes, H.; Rodrigues, A.P.; Carvalho, B.B.; Neto, A.; Varandas, C.A.F.

2008-01-01

Real-time control of magnetically confined plasmas is a critical issue for the safety, operation and high performance scientific exploitation of the experimental devices on regimes beyond the current operation frontiers. The number of parameters and the data volumes used for the plasma properties identification scale normally not only with the machine size but also with the technology improvements, leading to a great complexity of the plant system. A strong computational power and fast communication infrastructure are needed to handle in real-time this information, allowing just-in-time decisions to achieve the fusion critical plasma conditions. These advanced control systems require a tiered infrastructure including the hardware layer, the signal-processing middleware, real-time timing and data transport, the real-time operating system tools and drivers, the framework for code development, simulation, deployment and experiment parameterization and the human real-time plasma condition monitoring and management. This approach is being implemented at CFN by offering a vertical solution for the forthcoming challenges, including ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. A given set of tools and systems are described on this paper, namely: (i) an ATCA based hardware multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) platform, PCI and PCIe acquisition and control modules; (ii) FPGA and DSP parallelized signal processing algorithms; (iii) a signal data and event distribution system over a 2.5/10Gb optical network with sub-microsecond latencies; (iv) RTAI and Linux drivers; and (v) the FireSignal, FusionTalk, SDAS FireCalc application tools. (author)

Innovation subsidies versus consumer subsidies: A real options analysis of solar energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Torani, Kiran; Rausser, Gordon; Zilberman, David

2016-01-01

Given the interest in the commercialization of affordable, clean energy technologies, we examine the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV). We consider the question of how to transition to a meaningful percentage of solar energy in a sustainable manner and which policies are most effective in accelerating adoption. This paper develops a stochastic dynamic model of the adoption of solar PV in the residential and commercial sector under two sources of uncertainty – the price of electricity and cost of solar. The analytic results suggest that a high rate of innovation may delay adoption of a new technology if the consumer has rational price expectations. We simulate the model across alternative rates technological change, electricity prices, subsidies and carbon taxes. It is shown that there will be a displacement of incumbent technologies and a widespread shift towards solar PV in under 30 years – and that this can occur without consumer incentives and carbon pricing. We show that these policies have a modest impact in accelerating adoption, and that they may not be an effective part of climate policy. Instead, results demonstrate that further technological change is the crucial determinant and main driver of adoption. Further, results indicate that subsidies and taxes become increasingly ineffective with higher rates of technological change. - Highlights: •Stochastic dynamic model of solar PV adoption under two sources of uncertainty. •Simulation across electricity prices, technical change, subsidies and CO_2 taxes. •Rate of technical change indicates shift to solar in 25–28 years without incentives. •Modest impact of consumer subsidies and CO_2 taxes (up to $150/ton CO_2) in adoption. •R&D support/further technological change is the main driver of adoption of solar.

Concurrent audio-visual feedback for supporting drivers at intersections : a study using two linked driving simulators.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houtenbos, M. Winter, J.C.F. de Hale, A.R. Wieringa, P.A. & Hagenzieker, M.P.

2016-01-01

A large portion of road traffic crashes occur at intersections for the reason that drivers lack necessary visual information. This research examined the effects of an audio-visual display that provides real-time sonification and visualization of the speed and direction of another car approaching the

Effect of Cognitive Demand on Functional Visual Field Performance in Senior Drivers with Glaucoma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viswa Gangeddula

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To investigate the effect of cognitive demand on functional visual field performance in drivers with glaucoma.Method: This study included 20 drivers with open-angle glaucoma and 13 age- and sex-matched controls. Visual field performance was evaluated under different degrees of cognitive demand: a static visual field condition (C1, dynamic visual field condition (C2, and dynamic visual field condition with active driving (C3 using an interactive, desktop driving simulator. The number of correct responses (accuracy and response times on the visual field task were compared between groups and between conditions using Kruskal–Wallis tests. General linear models were employed to compare cognitive workload, recorded in real-time through pupillometry, between groups and conditions.Results: Adding cognitive demand (C2 and C3 to the static visual field test (C1 adversely affected accuracy and response times, in both groups (p < 0.05. However, drivers with glaucoma performed worse than did control drivers when the static condition changed to a dynamic condition [C2 vs. C1 accuracy; glaucoma: median difference (Q1–Q3 3 (2–6.50 vs. controls: 2 (0.50–2.50; p = 0.05] and to a dynamic condition with active driving [C3 vs. C1 accuracy; glaucoma: 2 (2–6 vs. controls: 1 (0.50–2; p = 0.02]. Overall, drivers with glaucoma exhibited greater cognitive workload than controls (p = 0.02.Conclusion: Cognitive demand disproportionately affects functional visual field performance in drivers with glaucoma. Our results may inform the development of a performance-based visual field test for drivers with glaucoma.

State-of-the-art Versus Time-triggered Object Tracking in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moritz Koplin

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Most state-of-the-art driver assistance systems cannot guarantee that real-time images of object states are updated within a given time interval, because the object state observations are typically sampled by uncontrolled sensors and transmitted via an indeterministic bus system such as CAN. To overcome this shortcoming, a paradigm shift toward time-triggered advanced driver assistance systems based on a deterministic bus system, such as FlexRay, is under discussion. In order to prove the feasibility of this paradigm shift, this paper develops different models of a state-of-the-art and a time-triggered advanced driver assistance system based on multi-sensor object tracking and compares them with regard to their mean performance. The results show that while the state-of-the-art model is advantageous in scenarios with low process noise, it is outmatched by the time-triggered model in the case of high process noise, i.e., in complex situations with high dynamic.

Economic assessment of R and D with real options in the field of fast reactors taking into account uncertainty on their competitiveness: the case of France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taverdet-Popiolek, Nathalie; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka

2013-01-01

In a context of potential worldwide nuclear development, this paper aims at assessing the economic value of pursuing research in Generation IV fast reactors today, given that it would allow industrial deployment around 2040 in case of high uranium prices. Two key variables shall be considered as inputs for the assessment: the price of uranium and the over-cost of Generation IV reactors compared to the previous generation. Our model based on real options theory demonstrates that this value is positive and outweighs the risks associated with the competitiveness of Generation IV. (authors)

An investigation on motor-driven power steering-based crosswind disturbance compensation for the reduction of driver steering effort

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kyuwon; Kim, Boemjun; Go, Youngil; Park, Jaeyong; Park, Joonhong; Suh, Insoo; Yi, Kyongsu

2014-07-01

This paper describes a lateral disturbance compensation algorithm for an application to a motor-driven power steering (MDPS)-based driver assistant system. The lateral disturbance including wind force and lateral load transfer by bank angle reduces the driver's steering refinement and at the same time increases the possibility of an accident. A lateral disturbance compensation algorithm is designed to determine the motor overlay torque of an MDPS system for reducing the manoeuvreing effort of a human driver under lateral disturbance. Motor overlay torque for the compensation of driver's steering torque induced by the lateral disturbance consists of human torque feedback and feedforward torque. Vehicle-driver system dynamics have been investigated using a combined dynamic model which consists of a vehicle dynamic model, driver steering dynamic model and lateral disturbance model. The human torque feedback input has been designed via the investigation of the vehicle-driver system dynamics. Feedforward input torque is calculated to compensate additional tyre self-aligning torque from an estimated lateral disturbance. The proposed compensation algorithm has been implemented on a developed driver model which represents the driver's manoeuvreing characteristics under the lateral disturbance. The developed driver model has been validated with test data via a driving simulator in a crosswind condition. Human-in-the-loop simulations with a full-scale driving simulator on a virtual test track have been conducted to investigate the real-time performance of the proposed lateral disturbance compensation algorithm. It has been shown from simulation studies and human-in-the-loop simulation results that the driver's manoeuvreing effort and a lateral deviation of the vehicle under the lateral disturbance can be significantly reduced via the lateral disturbance compensation algorithm.

Exploring the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception via real-time hazard identification, hazard classification, and rating tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Borowsky, Avinoam; Oron-Gilad, Tal

2013-10-01

This study investigated the effects of driving experience on hazard awareness and risk perception skills. These topics have previously been investigated separately, yet a novel approach is suggested where hazard awareness and risk perception are examined concurrently. Young, newly qualified drivers, experienced drivers, and a group of commercial drivers, namely, taxi drivers performed three consecutive tasks: (1) observed 10 short movies of real-world driving situations and were asked to press a button each time they identified a hazardous situation; (2) observed one of three possible sub-sets of 8 movies (out of the 10 they have seen earlier) for the second time, and were asked to categorize them into an arbitrary number of clusters according to the similarity in their hazardous situation; and (3) observed the same sub-set for a third time and following each movie were asked to rate its level of hazardousness. The first task is considered a real-time identification task while the other two are performed using hindsight. During it participants' eye movements were recorded. Results showed that taxi drivers were more sensitive to hidden hazards than the other driver groups and that young-novices were the least sensitive. Young-novice drivers also relied heavily on materialized hazards in their categorization structure. In addition, it emerged that risk perception was derived from two major components: the likelihood of a crash and the severity of its outcome. Yet, the outcome was rarely considered under time pressure (i.e., in real-time hazard identification tasks). Using hindsight, when drivers were provided with the opportunity to rate the movies' hazardousness more freely (rating task) they considered both components. Otherwise, in the categorization task, they usually chose the severity of the crash outcome as their dominant criterion. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of eye-tracking in the testing of drivers: A review of research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bronisław Kapitaniak

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Recording and analyzing eye movements provide important elements for understanding the nature of the task of driving a vehicle. This article reviews the literature on eye movement strategies employed by drivers of vehicles (vehicle control, evaluation of the situation by analyzing essential visual elements, navigation. Special focus was placed on the phenomenon of conspicuity, the probability of perceiving an object in the visual field and the factors that determine it. The article reports the methods of oculographic examination, with special emphasis on the non-invasive technique using corneal reflections, and the criteria for optimal selection of the test apparatus for drivers in experimental conditions (on a driving simulator and in real conditions. Particular attention was also paid to the helmet – or glass-type devices provided with 1 or 2 high definition (HD camcorders recording the field of vision and the direction of gaze, and the non-contact devices comprising 2 or 3 cameras and an infrared source to record eye and head movements, pupil diameter, eye convergence distance, duration and frequency of eyelid blinking. A review of the studies conducted using driver eye-tracking procedure was presented. The results, in addition to their cognitive value, can be used with success to optimize the strategy of drivers training.

Cognitive characteristics of older Japanese drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Susilowati, Indri H; Yasukouchi, Akira

2012-02-29

Some causes of accidents among older drivers are: not paying attention to traffic signals; missing stop lines; and having to deal with and misjudging emergency situations. These causes of accidents reveal problems with attention and cognition. Such incidents are also related to driver perception and stress-coping mechanisms. It is important to examine the relation of stress reactions to attention and cognition as a factor influencing the causes of accidents commonly involving older drivers. Subjects were 10 young drivers (23.3 ± 3.33 years) and 25 older drivers divided into two groups (older1 [60 to 65 years] and older2 [> 65 years]). This study revealed the correlation within driver stress inventory and driver coping questionnaires parameters was observed only in older drivers. They also needed a longer response time for Trail Making Test A and B. The factors affected the attention and cognition of older drivers by age but not driving experience itself, and coping parameters such as emotion focus, reappraisal, and avoidance were not included as stress inventory parameters. Being prone to fatigue was less for younger drivers than older drivers. Because they have shorter distances, shorter drive times, and no need for expressways, older drivers also had a significantly lower risk of thrill-seeking behaviour and more patience. The intervention addressing their attention skills, aggressive feelings, and emotion focus should be considered. The technological improvements in cars will make older drivers feel safer and make driving easier which might lower the attention paid to the road, and regular driving training might be needed to assess and enhance their safety.

The effect of performance feedback on drivers' hazard perception ability and self-ratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Horswill, Mark S; Garth, Megan; Hill, Andrew; Watson, Marcus O

2017-04-01

Drivers' hazard perception ability has been found to predict crash risk, and novice drivers appear to be particularly poor at this skill. This competency appears to develop only slowly with experience, and this could partially be a result of poor quality performance feedback. We report an experiment in which we provided high-quality artificial feedback on individual drivers' performance in a validated video-based hazard perception test via either: (1) a graph-based comparison of hazard perception response times between the test-taker, the average driver, and an expert driver; (2) a video-based comparison between the same groups; or (3) both. All three types of feedback resulted in both an improvement in hazard perception performance and a reduction in self-rated hazard perception skill, compared with a no-feedback control group. Video-based and graph-based feedback combined resulted in a greater improvement in hazard perception performance than either of the individual components, which did not differ from one another. All three types of feedback eliminated participants' self-enhancement bias for hazard perception skill. Participants judged both interventions involving video feedback to be significantly more likely to improve their real-world driving than the no feedback control group. While all three forms of feedback had some value, the combined video and graph feedback intervention appeared to be the most effective across all outcome measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soft Real-Time PID Control on a VME Computer

Science.gov (United States)

Karayan, Vahag; Sander, Stanley; Cageao, Richard

2007-01-01

microPID (uPID) is a computer program for real-time proportional + integral + derivative (PID) control of a translation stage in a Fourier-transform ultraviolet spectrometer. microPID implements a PID control loop over a position profile at sampling rate of 8 kHz (sampling period 125microseconds). The software runs in a strippeddown Linux operating system on a VersaModule Eurocard (VME) computer operating in real-time priority queue using an embedded controller, a 16-bit digital-to-analog converter (D/A) board, and a laser-positioning board (LPB). microPID consists of three main parts: (1) VME device-driver routines, (2) software that administers a custom protocol for serial communication with a control computer, and (3) a loop section that obtains the current position from an LPB-driver routine, calculates the ideal position from the profile, and calculates a new voltage command by use of an embedded PID routine all within each sampling period. The voltage command is sent to the D/A board to control the stage. microPID uses special kernel headers to obtain microsecond timing resolution. Inasmuch as microPID implements a single-threaded process and all other processes are disabled, the Linux operating system acts as a soft real-time system.

Real-world adjustments of driver seat and head restraint in Saab 9-3 vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlsson, Anna; Pipkorn, Linda; Kullgren, Anders; Svensson, Mats

2017-05-19

Whiplash-associated disorder (WAD), commonly denoted whiplash injury, is a worldwide problem. These injuries occur at relatively low changes of velocity (typically whiplash injury than males.  Improved seat design is the prevailing means of increasing the protection of whiplash injury for occupants in rear impacts. Since 1997, more advanced whiplash protection systems have been introduced on the market, the Saab Active Head Restraint (SAHR) being one of the most prominent. The SAHR-which is height adjustable-is mounted to a pressure plate in the seatback by means of a spring-resisted link mechanism.  Nevertheless, studies have shown that seats equipped with reactive head restraints (such as the SAHR) have a very high injury-reducing effect for males (∼60-70%) but very low or no reduction effect for females. One influencing factor could be the position of the head restraint relative to the head, because a number of studies have reported that adjustable head restraints often are incorrectly positioned by drivers.  The aim was to investigate how female and male Saab drivers adjust the seat in the car they drive the most. The seated positions of drivers in stationary conditions have been investigated in a total of 76 volunteers (34 females, 42 males) who participated in the study. Inclusion criteria incorporated driving a Saab 9-3 on a regularly basis. The majority of the volunteers (89%) adjusted the head restraint to any of the 3 uppermost positions and as many as 59% in the top position.  The average vertical distance between the top of the head and the top of the head restraint (offset) increase linearly with increasing statures, from an average of -26 mm (head below the head restraint) for small females to an average of 82 mm (head above the head restraint) for large males. On average, the offset was 23 mm for females, which is within a satisfactory range and in accordance with recommendations; the corresponding value for males was 72 mm. �

For the last time: stock options are an expense.

Science.gov (United States)

Bodie, Zvi; Kaplan, Robert S; Merton, Robert C

2003-03-01

Should stock options be recorded as an expense on a company's income statement and balance sheet, or should they remain where they are, relegated to footnotes? The extraordinary boom in share prices during the Internet bubble made critics of option expensing look like spoilsports. But since the crash, the debate has returned with a vengeance. And no wonder: The authors believe the case for expensing options is overwhelming. In this article, Nobel Iaureate Robert Merton, one of the inventors of the Black-Scholes option-pricing model; his coauthor on the classic textbook Finance, Zvi Bodie; and Robert Kaplan, creator of the Balanced Scorecard, examine and dismiss the principal claims put forward by those who continue to oppose options expensing. They demonstrate that stock-option grants do indeed have real cash-flow implications that need to be reported. They show that effective ways certainly exist to quantify those implications. They detail the distortions that relegating stock-option accounting to footnotes creates. And they show why reporting option costs should in no way hamper young companies in their efforts to provide incentives. Options are indeed a powerful incentive, the authors agree, and failing to record a transaction that creates such powerful effects is economically indefensible. Worse, it encourages companies to favor options over alternative incentive systems. It is not the proper role of accounting standards, the authors argue, to distort executive and employee compensation by subsidizing one particular form of compensation and no other. Companies should choose compensation methods according to their economic benefits--not the way they are reported.

On the Option Effects of Short-Time Work Arrangements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huisman, Kuno; Thijssen, J.J.J.

2018-01-01

We analyse the short term work (STW) regulations that several OECD countries introduced after the 2007 financial crisis. We view these measures as a collection of real options and study the dynamic effect of STW on the endogenous liquidation decision of the firm. While STW delays a firm’s

Real-time locating systems (RTLS) in healthcare: a condensed primer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamel Boulos, Maged N; Berry, Geoff

2012-06-28

Real-time locating systems (RTLS, also known as real-time location systems) have become an important component of many existing ubiquitous location aware systems. While GPS (global positioning system) has been quite successful as an outdoor real-time locating solution, it fails to repeat this success indoors. A number of RTLS technologies have been used to solve indoor tracking problems. The ability to accurately track the location of assets and individuals indoors has many applications in healthcare. This paper provides a condensed primer of RTLS in healthcare, briefly covering the many options and technologies that are involved, as well as the various possible applications of RTLS in healthcare facilities and their potential benefits, including capital expenditure reduction and workflow and patient throughput improvements. The key to a successful RTLS deployment lies in picking the right RTLS option(s) and solution(s) for the application(s) or problem(s) at hand. Where this application-technology match has not been carefully thought of, any technology will be doomed to failure or to achieving less than optimal results.

Cognitive characteristics of older Japanese drivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susilowati Indri H

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Some causes of accidents among older drivers are: not paying attention to traffic signals; missing stop lines; and having to deal with and misjudging emergency situations. These causes of accidents reveal problems with attention and cognition. Such incidents are also related to driver perception and stress-coping mechanisms. It is important to examine the relation of stress reactions to attention and cognition as a factor influencing the causes of accidents commonly involving older drivers. Finding Subjects were 10 young drivers (23.3 ± 3.33 years and 25 older drivers divided into two groups (older1 [60 to 65 years] and older2 [> 65 years]. This study revealed the correlation within driver stress inventory and driver coping questionnaires parameters was observed only in older drivers. They also needed a longer response time for Trail Making Test A and B. The factors affected the attention and cognition of older drivers by age but not driving experience itself, and coping parameters such as emotion focus, reappraisal, and avoidance were not included as stress inventory parameters. Being prone to fatigue was less for younger drivers than older drivers. Because they have shorter distances, shorter drive times, and no need for expressways, older drivers also had a significantly lower risk of thrill-seeking behaviour and more patience. Conclusion The intervention addressing their attention skills, aggressive feelings, and emotion focus should be considered. The technological improvements in cars will make older drivers feel safer and make driving easier which might lower the attention paid to the road, and regular driving training might be needed to assess and enhance their safety.

Assisting Driver Sovereignty : A Fail-Safe Design Approach to Driver Distraction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Gijssel, A.

2013-01-01

This thesis investigates the potential of a fail-safe approach to driver distraction through novel interface concepts for integrated Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). Traffic accidents are a negative side effect of the universal and economical desire for mobility. The year 2009 saw the

Novice drivers' individual trajectories of driver behavior over the first three years of driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Gabriela D; Poulter, Damian; Barker, Edward; McKenna, Frank P; Rowe, Richard

2015-09-01

Identifying the changes in driving behavior that underlie the decrease in crash risk over the first few months of driving is key to efforts to reduce injury and fatality risk in novice drivers. This study represented a secondary data analysis of 1148 drivers who participated in the UK Cohort II study. The Driver Behavior Questionnaire was completed at 6 months and 1, 2 and 3 years after licensure. Linear latent growth models indicated significant increases across development in all four dimensions of aberrant driving behavior under scrutiny: aggressive violations, ordinary violations, errors and slips. Unconditional and conditional latent growth class analyses showed that the observed heterogeneity in individual trajectories was explained by the presence of multiple homogeneous groups of drivers, each exhibiting specific trajectories of aberrant driver behavior. Initial levels of aberrant driver behavior were important in identifying sub-groups of drivers. All classes showed positive slopes; there was no evidence of a group of drivers whose aberrant behavior decreased over time that might explain the decrease in crash involvement observed over this period. Male gender and younger age predicted membership of trajectories with higher levels of aberrant behavior. These findings highlight the importance of early intervention for improving road safety. We discuss the implications of our findings for understanding the behavioral underpinnings of the decrease in crash involvement observed in the early months of driving. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling Crossing Behavior of Drivers at Unsignalized Intersections with Consideration of Risk Perception

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Miaomiao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Drivers’ risk perception is vital to driving behavior and traffic safety. In the dynamic interaction of a driver-vehicle-environment system, drivers’ risk perception changes dynamically. This study focused on drivers’ risk perception at unsignalized intersections in China and analyzed drivers’ crossing behavior. Based on cognitive psychology theory and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, quantitative models of drivers’ risk perception were established for the crossing processes between two straight-moving vehicles from the orthogonal direction. The acceptable risk perception levels of drivers were identified using a self-developed data analysis method. Based on game theory, the relationship among the quantitative value of drivers’ risk perception, acceptable risk perception level, and vehicle motion state was analyzed. The models of drivers’ crossing behavior were then established. Finally, the behavior models were validated using data collected from real-world vehicle movements and driver decisions. The results showed that the developed behavior models had both high accuracy and good applicability. This study would provide theoretical and algorithmic references for the microscopic simulation and active safety control system of vehicles.

Energy options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hampton, Michael

1999-01-01

This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

2018-06-01

This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

An Induction Linac Driver For A 0.44 MJ Heavy-Ion Direct Drive Target

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seidl, P.A.; Lee, E.P.; Bangerter, R.O.; Faltens, A.

2010-01-01

The conceptual design of a heavy ion fusion driver system is described, including all major components. Particular issues emerging from this exercise are identified and discussed. The most important conclusion of our study is that due to stringent requirements on ion pulse phase space, we are unable to find a credible accelerator design that meets the requirements of the example target. Either the target design must be modified to accept larger ion ranges and larger focal spot sizes, or we must consider other target options.

[Treatment options for patellar tendinopathy].

Science.gov (United States)

Duthon, V B; Borloz, S; Ziltener, J-L

2012-07-25

Patellar tendinopathy is also called jumper's knee because of its high incidence in athletes with jumping or cutting activities as soccer, basketball, volleyball. Many different treatment methods have been described. However, no consensus exists regarding the optimal treatment for this condition. According to the literature, eccentric exercise-based physical therapy should be proposed first because of its strong scientific evidence. Shockwave therapy and injections may be useful but their real efficacy still has to be proven by randomized controlled study. For patients recalcitrant to more conservative options, operative management may be indicated.

"The little squealer" or "the virtual guardian angel"? Young drivers' and their parents' perspective on using a driver monitoring technology and its implications for parent-young driver communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Guttman, Nurit; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat

2011-02-01

In-vehicle driving monitoring technologies have the potential to enable young drivers to learn from self-assessment. However, their use is largely dependent on parental involvement. A total of 79 interviews were conducted with young drivers and parents regarding this technology and its use. Most had the experience of having an in-vehicle data recorder installed in the vehicle driven by the young drivers. Parents and the young drivers expressed both appreciation as well as reservations about its potential as a means to enhance the driving safety of young drivers. A surprising finding was that some parents did not check the feedback and said they relied on the young driver to do so. Main concerns related to privacy, parent-young driver relationship, self-esteem and confidence, constructive use of the feedback data, and the limitations of the documentation that can be done by the technology. Providing parents and young drivers with a support system and tools to discuss and utilize the feedback are underscored. Challenges include addressing the invasion of young drivers' privacy and gender differences, and using the monitoring-capacity of the technology to enhance safe driving practices. Implications for programs to enhance communication and a dialogical approach between parents and young drivers are discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluación socioeconómica de proyectos con el método de opciones reales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Guajardo Thomas

2008-07-01

opciones reales fue superior entre un 25 y un 500%, dependiendo del proyecto en estudio, al calculado a través de los métodos tradicionales. Por ello, se pudo concluir que el enfoque de opciones reales resulta una alternativa viable y útil para las instituciones públicas que buscan en Chile una adecuada valoración de sus proyectos de inversión. This article analyzes the application of the Real Options Theory in the assessment of social projects in Chile to determine their application and limitation conditions. The traditional techniques to assess investment alternatives, due to its static character, does not appropriately capture the  uncertainty inherent in the project, as well as they does not take into account either the capacity of a project to addapt to future scenes, that is to say, its operative flexibility. To correct those faults, appears a complementary methodology called Real Options, which is an analogy to the financial options that allow to reflect in numbers the flexibility value of a project under uncertainty conditions; this way, the real options method gets to join the financial theory and the strategic management of a project avoiding committing inaccuracies regarding the real value of the project. The application of the real options method in private investment alternatives has been the subject of numbers of works and investigations, having a big knowledge related to its limitations and considerations; however, there does not exist clarity about its application in investment alternatives of the public sector. To carry out the analysis, it was developed in a first stage the basic concepts of the real options theory and social economic projects assessment, after that four real cases of study were presented,  which were subjected to assessment with the traditional method of current Net Value and then with the real options method. On comparing the results with the real options method and the traditional ones, for all the cases, the value shown by the

Young novice drivers.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

2013-01-01

In The Netherlands, young novice drivers (18-24 years of age) show a crash rate that is five times higher than that of experienced drivers (30-59 years of age). The rate of young males is even seven times as high. The main reasons are lack of driving experience and hazardous behaviour typical of

The impact of continuous driving time and rest time on commercial drivers' driving performance and recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lianzhen; Pei, Yulong

2014-09-01

This real road driving study was conducted to investigate the effects of driving time and rest time on the driving performance and recovery of commercial coach drivers. Thirty-three commercial coach drivers participated in the study, and were divided into three groups according to driving time: (a) 2 h, (b) 3 h, and (c) 4 h. The Stanford Sleepiness Scale (SSS) was used to assess the subjective fatigue level of the drivers. One-way ANOVA was employed to analyze the variation in driving performance. The statistical analysis revealed that driving time had a significant effect on the subjective fatigue and driving performance measures among the three groups. After 2 h of driving, both the subjective fatigue and driving performance measures began to deteriorate. After 4 h of driving, all of the driving performance indicators changed significantly except for depth perception. A certain amount of rest time eliminated the negative effects of fatigue. A 15-minute rest allowed drivers to recover from a two-hour driving task. This needed to be prolonged to 30 min for driving tasks of 3 to 4 h of continuous driving. Drivers' attention, reactions, operating ability, and perceptions are all affected in turn after over 2 h of continuous driving. Drivers should take a certain amount of rest to recover from the fatigue effects before they continue driving. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Driver behavior analysis for right-turn drivers at signalized intersections using SHRP 2 naturalistic driving study data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianqing; Xu, Hao

2017-12-01

Understanding driver behavior is important for traffic safety and operation, especially at intersections where different traffic movements conflict. While most driver-behavior studies are based on simulation, this paper documents the analysis of driver-behavior at signalized intersections with the SHRP 2 Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) data. This study analyzes the different influencing factors on the operation (speed control) and observation of right-turn drivers. A total of 300 NDS trips at six signalized intersections were used, including the NDS time-series sensor data, the forward videos and driver face videos. Different factors of drivers, vehicles, roads and environments were studied for their influence on driver behavior. An influencing index function was developed and the index was calculated for each influencing factor to quantitatively describe its influencing level. The influencing index was applied to prioritize the factors, which facilitates development and selection of safety countermeasures to improve intersection safety. Drivers' speed control was analyzed under different conditions with consideration of the prioritized influencing factors. Vehicle type, traffic signal status, conflicting traffic, conflicting pedestrian and driver age group were identified as the five major influencing factors on driver observation. This research revealed that drivers have high acceleration and low observation frequency under Right-Turn-On-Red (RTOR), which constituted potential danger for other roadway users, especially for pedestrians. As speed has a direct influence on crash rates and severities, the revealed speed patterns of the different situations also benefit selection of safety countermeasures at signalized intersections. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effect of drivers' age and push button locations on visual time off road, steering wheel deviation and safety perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Dukic, T; Hanson, L; Falkmer, T

2006-01-15

The study examined the effects of manual control locations on two groups of randomly selected young and old drivers in relation to visual time off road, steering wheel deviation and safety perception. Measures of visual time off road, steering wheel deviations and safety perception were performed with young and old drivers during real traffic. The results showed an effect of both driver's age and button location on the dependent variables. Older drivers spent longer visual time off road when pushing the buttons and had larger steering wheel deviations. Moreover, the greater the eccentricity between the normal line of sight and the button locations, the longer the visual time off road and the larger the steering wheel deviations. No interaction effect between button location and age was found with regard to visual time off road. Button location had an effect on perceived safety: the further away from the normal line of sight the lower the rating.

The Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination Revised as a potential screening test for elderly drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Inês S; Simões, Mário R; Marôco, João

2012-11-01

Considerable research has shown that neuropsychological tests are predictive of real-world driving ability. The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) is a brief cognitive test that has been commonly used in the assessment of older drivers. However, this test has inherent problems that limit its validity to evaluate cognitive abilities related to driving and to screen for driving impairments in non-demented people. Therefore, it is useful to test new screening instruments that may predict potential unsafe drivers who require an in-depth neuropsychological assessment in a specialised centre. To date, the utility of the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination Revised (ACE-R) as an indicator of driving ability has not been established. In the current study, fifty older drivers (mean age=73.1 years) who were referred for a psychological assessment, the protocol of which included the ACE-R, underwent an on-road driving test. Using linear discriminant analyses, the results highlighted the higher classification accuracy of the ACE-R compared to the MMSE score, particularly for detecting unsafe drivers. Measures of visuospatial and executive functions, which are not incorporated in the MMSE score, had an incremental value in the prediction of driving ability. This emerging brief cognitive test may warrant additional study for use in the fitness to drive assessment of older adults. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental Research in Boost Driver with EDLCs

Science.gov (United States)

Matsumoto, Hirokazu

The supply used in servo systems tends to have a high voltage in order to reduce loss and improve the response of motor drives. We propose a new boost motor driver that comprises EDLCs. The proposed driver has a simple structure, wherein the EDLCs are connected in series to the supply, and comprises a charge circuit to charge the EDLCs. The proposed driver has three advantages over conventional boost drivers. The first advantage is that the driver can easily attain the stable boost voltage. The second advantage is that the driver can reduce input power peaks. In a servo system, the input power peaks become greater than the rated power in order to accelerate the motor rapidly. This implies that the equipments that supply power to servo systems must have sufficient power capacity to satisfy the power peaks. The proposed driver can suppress the increase of the power capacity of supply facilities. The third advantage is that the driver can store almost all of the regenerative energy. Conventional drivers have a braking resistor to suppress the increase in the DC link voltage. This causes a considerable reduction in the efficiency. The proposed driver is more efficient than conventional drivers. In this study, the experimental results confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed driver and showed that the drive performance of the proposed driver is the same as that of a conventional driver. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the results of the simulation of a model of the EDLC module, whose capacitance is dependent on the frequency, correspond well with the experimental results.

48 CFR 552.217-71 - Notice Regarding Option(s).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notice Regarding Option(s... Notice Regarding Option(s). As prescribed in 517.208(b), insert the following provision: Notice Regarding Option(s) (NOV 1992) The General Services Administration (GSA) has included an option to [Insert...

Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

2016-05-18

Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

Evaluating Older Drivers' Skills

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

Research has demonstrated that older drivers pose a higher risk of involvement in fatal crashes at intersections than : younger drivers. Age-triggered restrictions are problematic as research shows that the majority of older people : have unimpaired ...

Inertial confinement fusion driver enhancements: Final focusing systems and compact heavy-ion driver designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bieri, R.L.

1991-01-01

Required elements of an inertial confinement fusion power plant are modeled and discussed. A detailed analysis of two critical elements of candidate drivers is done, and new component designs are proposed to increase the credibility and feasibility of each driver system. An analysis of neutron damage to the final elements of a laser focusing system is presented, and multilayer -- dielectric mirrors are shown to have damage lifetimes which axe too short to be useful in a commercial power plant. A new final-focusing system using grazing incidence metal mirrors to protect sensitive laser optics is designed and shown to be effective in extending the lifetime of the final focusing system. The reflectivities and damage limits of grazing incidence metal mirrors are examined in detail, and the required mirror sizes are shown to be compatible with the beam sizes and illumination geometries currently envisioned for laser drivers. A detailed design and analysis is also done for compact arrays of superconducting magnetic quadrupoles, which are needed in a multi-beam heavy-ion driver. The new array model is developed in more detail than some previous conceptual designs and models arrays which are more compact than arrays scaled from existing single -- quadrupole designs. The improved integrated model for compact arrays is used to compare the effects of various quadrupole array design choices on the size and cost of a heavy-ion driver. Array design choices which significantly affect the cost of a heavy-ion driver include the choice of superconducting material and the thickness of the collar used to support the winding stresses. The effect of these array design choices on driver size and cost is examined and the array model is used to estimate driver cost savings and performance improvements attainable with aggressive quadrupole array designs with high-performance superconductors

41 CFR 102-73.15 - What real estate acquisition and related services may Federal agencies provide?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What real estate... REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 73-REAL ESTATE ACQUISITION General Provisions § 102-73.15 What real estate... provide real estate acquisition and related services, including leasing (with or without purchase options...

Physician alignment strategies and real estate.

Science.gov (United States)

Czerniak, Thomas A

2012-06-01

When addressing locations of facilities after acquiring physician practices, hospitals should: Acknowledge the hospital's ambulatory plan is the driver rather than real estate assumed with the physician practices, Review the hospital ambulatory service plan for each submarket, Review the location of facilities within the service area and their proximity to one another, Sublease or sell existing facilities that are not appropriate, Ensure that the size and characteristics of each facility in the market are appropriate and consistent with the hospital's image.

How far can various control options take us in terms of increased hydraulic capacity under wet weather conditions?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharma, Anitha Kumari; Guildal, T.; Thomsen, H. A. R.

Many modelling studies have demonstrated that the hydraulic capacity of the WWTP can be improved by introducing various real time control options, however few studies have demonstrated how effective these controls are in the real world....

Real-time multi-camera video acquisition and processing platform for ADAS

Science.gov (United States)

Saponara, Sergio

2016-04-01

The paper presents the design of a real-time and low-cost embedded system for image acquisition and processing in Advanced Driver Assisted Systems (ADAS). The system adopts a multi-camera architecture to provide a panoramic view of the objects surrounding the vehicle. Fish-eye lenses are used to achieve a large Field of View (FOV). Since they introduce radial distortion of the images projected on the sensors, a real-time algorithm for their correction is also implemented in a pre-processor. An FPGA-based hardware implementation, re-using IP macrocells for several ADAS algorithms, allows for real-time processing of input streams from VGA automotive CMOS cameras.

Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecosystem Change: an Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerald C. Nelson

2006-12-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of what the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA calls "indirect and direct drivers" of change in ecosystem services at a global level. The MA definition of a driver is any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely by altering one or more direct drivers. Global driving forces are categorized as demographic, economic, sociopolitical, cultural and religious, scientific and technological, and physical and biological. Drivers in all categories other than physical and biological are considered indirect. Important direct drivers include changes in climate, plant nutrient use, land conversion, and diseases and invasive species. This paper does not discuss natural drivers such as climate variability, extreme weather events, or volcanic eruptions.

Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

Science.gov (United States)

Pierce, Jeff G.

This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høg, Esben; Tsiaras, Leonicas

2011-01-01

of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well...... obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark...

Drivers' reactions to sudden lead car braking under varying workload conditions; towards a driver support system.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaap, Nina; van der Horst, A.R.A.; van Arem, Bart; Brookhuis, K.A.

2008-01-01

At urban intersections drivers handle multiple tasks simultaneously, making urban driving a complex task. An advanced driver assistance system may support drivers in this specific driving task, but the design details of such a system need to be determined before they can be fully deployed. A driving

Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

2017-05-01

The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

A new coupled map car-following model considering drivers' steady desired speed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Tong; Sun Di-Hua; Li Hua-Min; Liu Wei-Ning

2014-01-01

Based on the pioneering work of Konishi et al., in consideration of the influence of drivers' steady desired speed effect on the traffic flow, we develop a new coupled map car-following model in the real world. By use of the control theory, the stability condition of our model is derived. The validity of the present theoretical scheme is verified via numerical simulation, confirming the correctness of our theoretical analysis. (general)

General oilfield driver improvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, G.

1997-01-01

The general oilfield driver improvement (GODI) course was discussed. The course is offered to truckers in the oil and gas industry to help reduce accidents and injuries. Oilfield trucking is one of the most accident and injury prone sectors in the Alberta economy. This paper presented Heck's Trucking company's experience in sending its employees on the course. Drivers were taught (1) the National safety code requirements, (2) Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance requirements, (3) occupational health and safety concerns, (4) vehicle dimension and GVW restrictions, (5) hours of service regulations, (6) log book and pre-trip inspection requirements, (7) workplace hazardous material information, and (8) transportation of dangerous goods. Overall, the course was judged to provide excellent training before sending drivers into the field. The employee, the customer, and the company, all stand to benefit from having rigorous and uniform standards for all drivers in the oil and gas industry

VD-411 branch driver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorbunov, N.V.; Karev, A.G.; Mal'tsev, Eh.I.; Morozov, B.A.

1985-01-01

The VD-411 branch driver for CAMAC moduli control by the SM-4 computer is described. The driver realizes data exchange with moduli disposed in 28 crates grouped in 4 branches. Data exchange can be carried out either in the program regime or in the regime of direct access to the memory. Fulfilment of 11 block regimes and one program regime is provided for. A possibility of individual programming of exchange methods in block regimes is left for users for organisation of quicker and most flexible data removal from the CAMAC moduli. In the regime of direct access the driver provides data transmission at the size up to 64 Kwords placing it in the computer memory of 2 M byte. High rate of data transmission and the developed system of interruptions ensure efficient utilization of the VD-411 branch driver at data removal from facilities in high energy physics experiments

Accounting for the Variation of Driver Aggression in the Simulation of Conventional and Advanced Vehicles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neubauer, J.; Wood, E.

2013-01-01

Hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gases, as well as to offer a financial benefit to the driver. However, assessing these potential benefits is complicated by several factors, including the driving habits of the operator. We focus on driver aggression, i.e., the level of acceleration and velocity characteristic of travel, to (1) assess its variation within large, real-world drive datasets, (2) quantify its effect on both vehicle efficiency and economics for multiple vehicle types, (3) compare these results to those of standard drive cycles commonly used in the industry, and (4) create a representative drive cycle for future analyses where standard drive cycles are lacking.

Frequency and irregularity of heart rate in drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis.

Science.gov (United States)

Khiabani, Hassan Z; Mørland, Jørg; Bramness, Jørgen G

2008-12-01

Delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the major active component of cannabis. Cardiovascular effects of THC have previously been reported: tachycardia after intake, but also bradycardia at higher doses. The purpose of this study was, firstly, to investigate the frequency and irregularity of heart rate in a group of cannabis users in their natural surroundings. We also compared THC-positive drivers with a regular pulse with THC-positive drivers with an irregular pulse. The division of Forensic Toxicology and Drug Abuse (DFTDA) at the Norwegian Institute of Public Heath analyzes blood samples from all drivers suspected of driving under the influence of drugs. We studied pulse rate and regularity in 502 THC-positive drivers who tested negative for other substances. As a control group, we randomly selected 125 drug-negative cases from the database of the DFTDA; no alcohol, narcotics, or medicinal drugs of abuse were detected. The Delta9-THC-positive drivers had a higher mean pulse rate than the control group [82.8 beats/min (SD 16.3) versus 75.6 beats/min (SD 9.2)] and more cases with tachycardia were detected in the Delta9-THC-positive group (19.4% versus 1.6%). There was only one driver with an irregular heart beat in the control group, while there were nine among the Delta9-THC-positive drivers. The drivers with an irregular pulse were over-represented amongst those with the lowest blood Delta9-THC concentrations. This report represents a large study of subjects in a real-life situation and includes observations on pulse frequency, regularity, and blood Delta9-THC concentration. A substantial fraction of Delta9-THC-positive drivers had tachycardia, but there was no correlation between blood Delta9-THC concentration and pulse rate in the present study. We had no further diagnostic information on the cause of the pulse irregularities, but our results indicate that occasional users of cannabis tend to have irregular heart rates at low THC concentrations and at low

Risk management with substitution options: Valuing flexibility in small-scale energy systems

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Karl Eric

Several features of small-scale energy systems make them more easily adapted to a changing operating environment than large centralized designs. This flexibility is often manifested as the ability to substitute inputs. This research explores the value of this substitution flexibility and the marginal value of becoming a "little more flexible" in the context of real project investment in developing countries. The elasticity of substitution is proposed as a stylized measure of flexibility and a choice variable. A flexible alternative (elasticity > 0) can be thought of as holding a fixed-proportions "nflexible" asset plus a sequence of exchange options---the option to move to another feasible "recipe" each period. Substitutability derives value from following a contour of anticipated variations and from responding to new information. Substitutability value, a "cost savings option", increases with elasticity and price risk. However, the required premium to incrementally increase flexibility can in some cases decrease with an increase in risk. Variance is not always a measure of risk. Tools from stochastic dominance are newly applied to real options with convex payoffs to correct some misperceptions and clarify many common modeling situations that meet the criteria for increased variance to imply increased risk. The behavior of the cost savings option is explored subject to a stochastic input price process. At the point where costs are identical for all alternatives, the stochastic process for cost savings becomes deterministic, with savings directly proportional to elasticity of substitution and price variance. The option is also formulated as a derivative security via dynamic programming. The partial differential equation is solved for the special case of Cobb-Douglas (elasticity = 1) (also shown are linear (infinite elasticity), Leontief (elasticity = 0)). Risk aversion is insufficient to prefer a more flexible alternative with the same expected value. Intertemporal

Real-Time (Vision-Based) Road Sign Recognition Using an Artificial Neural Network

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Kh Tohidul; Raj, Ram Gopal

2017-01-01

Road sign recognition is a driver support function that can be used to notify and warn the driver by showing the restrictions that may be effective on the current stretch of road. Examples for such regulations are ‘traffic light ahead’ or ‘pedestrian crossing’ indications. The present investigation targets the recognition of Malaysian road and traffic signs in real-time. Real-time video is taken by a digital camera from a moving vehicle and real world road signs are then extracted using vision-only information. The system is based on two stages, one performs the detection and another one is for recognition. In the first stage, a hybrid color segmentation algorithm has been developed and tested. In the second stage, an introduced robust custom feature extraction method is used for the first time in a road sign recognition approach. Finally, a multilayer artificial neural network (ANN) has been created to recognize and interpret various road signs. It is robust because it has been tested on both standard and non-standard road signs with significant recognition accuracy. This proposed system achieved an average of 99.90% accuracy with 99.90% of sensitivity, 99.90% of specificity, 99.90% of f-measure, and 0.001 of false positive rate (FPR) with 0.3 s computational time. This low FPR can increase the system stability and dependability in real-time applications. PMID:28406471

Real-Time (Vision-Based) Road Sign Recognition Using an Artificial Neural Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Kh Tohidul; Raj, Ram Gopal

2017-04-13

Road sign recognition is a driver support function that can be used to notify and warn the driver by showing the restrictions that may be effective on the current stretch of road. Examples for such regulations are 'traffic light ahead' or 'pedestrian crossing' indications. The present investigation targets the recognition of Malaysian road and traffic signs in real-time. Real-time video is taken by a digital camera from a moving vehicle and real world road signs are then extracted using vision-only information. The system is based on two stages, one performs the detection and another one is for recognition. In the first stage, a hybrid color segmentation algorithm has been developed and tested. In the second stage, an introduced robust custom feature extraction method is used for the first time in a road sign recognition approach. Finally, a multilayer artificial neural network (ANN) has been created to recognize and interpret various road signs. It is robust because it has been tested on both standard and non-standard road signs with significant recognition accuracy. This proposed system achieved an average of 99.90% accuracy with 99.90% of sensitivity, 99.90% of specificity, 99.90% of f-measure, and 0.001 of false positive rate (FPR) with 0.3 s computational time. This low FPR can increase the system stability and dependability in real-time applications.

Energy exotic options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaminski, V.; Gibner, S.; Pinnamaneni, K.

1999-01-01

This chapter with 88 references focuses on the use of exotic options to control exposure to energy prices. Exotic options are defined, and the conversion of a standard option into an exotic option and pricing models are examined. Pricing and hedging exotic options, path-dependent options, multi-commodity options, options on the minimum-or-maximum of two commodities, compound options, digital options, hybrid and complex structures, and natural gas daily options are described. Formulas for option pricing for vanilla, barrier, compound, options on minimum or maximum of two assets, and look back options are given in an appendix

Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luigi Ranieri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

Driver education: Enhancing knowledge of sleep, fatigue and risky behaviour to improve decision making in young drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvaro, Pasquale K; Burnett, Nicole M; Kennedy, Gerard A; Min, William Yu Xun; McMahon, Marcus; Barnes, Maree; Jackson, Melinda; Howard, Mark E

2018-03-01

This study assessed the impact of an education program on knowledge of sleepiness and driving behaviour in young adult drivers and their performance and behaviour during simulated night driving. Thirty-four participants (18-26 years old) were randomized to receive either a four-week education program about sleep and driving or a control condition. A series of questionnaires were administered to assess knowledge of factors affecting sleep and driving before and after the four-week education program. Participants also completed a two hour driving simulator task at 1am after 17 h of extended wakefulness to assess the impact on driving behaviour. There was an increase in circadian rhythm knowledge in the intervention group following the education program. Self-reported risky behaviour increased in the control group with no changes in other aspects of sleep knowledge. There were no significant differences in proportion of intervention and control participants who had microsleeps (p ≤ .096), stopped driving due to sleepiness (p = .107), recorded objective episodes of drowsiness (p = .455), and crashed (p = .761), although there was a trend towards more control participants having microsleeps and stopping driving. Those in the intervention group reported higher subjective sleepiness at the end of the drive [M = 6.25, SD = 3.83, t(31) = 2.15, p = .05] and were more likely to indicate that they would stop driving [M = 3.08, SD = 1.16, t(31) = 2.24, p = .04]. The education program improved some aspects of driver knowledge about sleep and safety. The results also suggested that the education program lead to an increased awareness of sleepiness. Education about sleep and driving could reduce the risk of drowsy driving and associated road trauma in young drivers, but requires evaluation in a broader sample with assessment of real world driving outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Driver Distraction in Public Transport

OpenAIRE

YOUNG, K; SALMON, P; REGAN MICHAEL, M

2007-01-01

There is converging evidence that driver distraction is a contributing factor in car crashes, in Australia and overseas. Surprisingly, no known previous research has attempted to identify and assess the potentially distracting activities undertaken by the drivers of public passenger vehicles. This paper describes research undertaken on this issue. The research was partitioned into three phases: an analysis of the functions and tasks currently undertaken by public passenger vehicle drivers; th...

Criteria for driver impairment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brookhuis, K.A.; De Waard, D.; Fairclough, S.H

2003-01-01

Most traffic accidents can be attributed to driver impairment, e.g. inattention, fatigue, intoxication, etc. It is now technically feasible to monitor and diagnose driver behaviour with respect to impairment with the aid of a limited number of in-vehicle sensors. However, a valid framework for the

49 CFR 396.13 - Driver inspection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY REGULATIONS INSPECTION, REPAIR, AND MAINTENANCE § 396.13 Driver inspection. Before driving a motor vehicle, the driver shall: (a) Be satisfied that the motor vehicle is in safe operating condition; (b) Review the last driver vehicle inspection...

Building Real-Time Collaborative Applications with a Federated Architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Ojanguren-Menendez

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Real-time collaboration is being offered by multiple libraries and APIs (Google Drive Real-time API, Microsoft Real-Time Communications API, TogetherJS, ShareJS, rapidly becoming a mainstream option for webservices developers. However, they are offered as centralised services running in a single server, regardless if they are free/open source or proprietary software. After re-engineering Apache Wave (former Google Wave, we can now provide the first decentralised and federated free/open source alternative. The new API allows to develop new real-time collaborative web applications in both JavaScript and Java environments.

Visual Perception by Drivers of the Advertisements Located at Selected Major Routes

Science.gov (United States)

Bichajło, Lesław

2017-10-01

This article characterizes the research based on the analysis of the eye fixation points on the advertisements. The research has been realized in real road and traffic conditions. The group of 12 drivers was equipped with the glasses occulometric measurement system mounted on the driver’s head. The participants were driving their private cars. The analysis was concentrated on the fixations on the advertisement tables located along the selected national roads in Rzeszów area (Poland). For better recognition if the advertisements have distracted the drivers the number of fixations on the advertisements has been compared with the fixations on the road signs. The active drivers have observed many visual attractors like advertisements, road signs and cars being ahead and on another lane. Passive drivers have low number of fixations on road signs and advertisements. Their fixations typically have been localized on survey and they probably used the peripheral vision in order to recognition of road sign shapes. The results show, that: the percentage of fixations on the advertisement and road signs is different for each participants; the highest percentage of fixated advertisements was on the section with small number of advertisements, but in the city area, when a group of advertisements was on the road, the participants selected some of them, yet no participant fixated all advertisements localized in a small distance between them; the single advertisement visible from the long distance strongly attracts the visual perception; the percentage of the fixated advertisements was higher than road signs.

IFE Power Plant design principles. Drivers. Solid state laser drivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakai, S.; Andre, M.; Krupke, W.F.; Mak, A.A.; Soures, J.M.; Yamanaka, M.

1995-01-01

The present status of solid state laser drivers for an inertial confinement thermonuclear fusion power plant is discussed. In particular, the feasibility of laser diode pumped solid state laser drivers from both the technical and economic points of view is briefly reviewed. Conceptual design studies showed that they can, in principle, satisfy the design requirements. However, development of new solid state materials with long fluorescence lifetimes and good thermal characteristics is a key issue for laser diode pumped solid state lasers. With the advent of laser diode pumping many materials which were abandoned in the past can presently be reconsidered as viable candidates. It is also concluded that it is important to examine the technical requirements for solid state lasers in relation to target performance criteria. The progress of laser diode pumped lasers in industrial applications should also be closely watched to provide additional information on the economic feasibility of this type of driver. 15 refs, 9 figs, 2 tabs

Data and methods for studying commercial motor vehicle driver fatigue, highway safety and long-term driver health.

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, Hal S; Blower, Daniel; Cohen, Michael L; Czeisler, Charles A; Dinges, David F; Greenhouse, Joel B; Guo, Feng; Hanowski, Richard J; Hartenbaum, Natalie P; Krueger, Gerald P; Mallis, Melissa M; Pain, Richard F; Rizzo, Matthew; Sinha, Esha; Small, Dylan S; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Wegman, David H

2018-03-09

This article summarizes the recommendations on data and methodology issues for studying commercial motor vehicle driver fatigue of a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine study. A framework is provided that identifies the various factors affecting driver fatigue and relating driver fatigue to crash risk and long-term driver health. The relevant factors include characteristics of the driver, vehicle, carrier and environment. Limitations of existing data are considered and potential sources of additional data described. Statistical methods that can be used to improve understanding of the relevant relationships from observational data are also described. The recommendations for enhanced data collection and the use of modern statistical methods for causal inference have the potential to enhance our understanding of the relationship of fatigue to highway safety and to long-term driver health. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Driver Evasive Maneuvering Prior to Intersection Crashes Using Event Data Recorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, John M; Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

2015-01-01

Intersection crashes account for over 4,500 fatalities in the United States each year. Intersection Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (I-ADAS) are emerging vehicle-based active safety systems that have the potential to help drivers safely navigate across intersections and prevent intersection crashes and injuries. The performance of an I-ADAS is expected to be highly dependent upon driver evasive maneuvering prior to an intersection crash. Little has been published, however, on the detailed evasive kinematics followed by drivers prior to real-world intersection crashes. The objective of this study was to characterize the frequency, timing, and kinematics of driver evasive maneuvers prior to intersection crashes. Event data recorders (EDRs) downloaded from vehicles involved in intersection crashes were investigated as part of NASS-CDS years 2001 to 2013. A total of 135 EDRs with precrash vehicle speed and braking application were downloaded to investigate evasive braking. A smaller subset of 59 EDRs that collected vehicle yaw rate was additionally analyzed to investigate evasive steering. Each vehicle was assigned to one of 3 precrash movement classifiers (traveling through the intersection, completely stopped, or rolling stop) based on the vehicle's calculated acceleration and observed velocity profile. To ensure that any significant steering input observed was an attempted evasive maneuver, the analysis excluded vehicles at intersections that were turning, driving on a curved road, or performing a lane change. Braking application at the last EDR-recorded time point was assumed to indicate evasive braking. A vehicle yaw rate greater than 4° per second was assumed to indicate an evasive steering maneuver. Drivers executed crash avoidance maneuvers in four-fifths of intersection crashes. A more detailed analysis of evasive braking frequency by precrash maneuver revealed that drivers performing complete or rolling stops (61.3%) braked less often than drivers

A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s

OpenAIRE

Joseph R. Mason

2005-01-01

Literature to date has identified three main aspects of liquidation time: firm size, asset specificity, and industry concentration. The present paper unifies the theory behind these three aspects of bankruptcy costs by treating them as components of a broader option valuation problem faced by the liquidating trustee. In the options valuation framework, at time t the trustee may choose to 1) liquidate at current asset values and incur a known loss, or 2) hold until the next period t+1 at a pos...

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

Science.gov (United States)

Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

2014-01-01

To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marian Shanahan

Full Text Available AIMS: To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. METHOD: A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events. The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB. FINDINGS: The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. CONCLUSION: Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

Renewables-to-reefs? - Decommissioning options for the offshore wind power industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Smyth, Katie; Christie, Nikki; Burdon, Daryl; Atkins, Jonathan P; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

2015-01-15

The offshore wind power industry is relatively new but increasing globally, hence it is important that the whole life-cycle is managed. The construction-operation-decommissioning cycle is likely to take 20-30 years and whilst decommissioning may not be undertaken for many years, its management needs to be addressed in both current and future marine management regimes. This can be defined within a Drivers-Activities-Pressures-State Changes-Impacts (on human Welfare)-Responses framework. This paper considers the main decommissioning options - partial or complete removal of all components. A SWOT analysis shows environmental and economic benefits in partial as opposed to complete removal, especially if habitat created on the structures has conservation or commercial value. Benefits (and repercussions) are defined in terms of losses and gains of ecosystem services and societal benefits. The legal precedents and repercussions of both options are considered in terms of the 10-tenets of sustainable marine management. Finally a 'renewables-to-reefs' programme is proposed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effluent treatment options for nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipers, L.R.; Brockmann, J.E.

1992-01-01

A variety of approaches for handling effluent from nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests in an environmentally acceptable manner are discussed. The functional requirements of effluent treatment are defined and concept options are presented within the framework of these requirements. System concepts differ primarily in the choice of fission-product retention and waste handling concepts. The concept options considered range from closed cycle (venting the exhaust to a closed volume or recirculating the hydrogen in a closed loop) to open cycle (real time processing and venting of the effluent). This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of different methods to handle effluent from nuclear thermal propulsion system ground tests

Drivers' reactions to sudden braking by lead car under varying workload conditions; towards a driver support system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaap, T. W.; van der Horst, A. R. A.; van Arem, B.; Brookhuis, K. A.

2008-01-01

At urban intersections drivers handle multiple tasks simultaneously, making urban driving a complex task. An advanced driver assistance system may support drivers in this specific driving task, but the design details of such a system need to be determined before they can be fully deployed. A driving

Microprocessor-based stepping motor driver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halbig, J.K.; Klosterbuer, S.F.

1979-09-01

The Pion Generation for Medical Irradiations (PIGMI) program at the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory requires a versatile stepping motor driver to do beam diagnostic measurements. A driver controlled by a microprocessor that can move eight stepping motors simultaneously was designed. The driver can monitor and respond to clockwise- and counterclockwise-limit switches, and it can monitor a 0- to 10-V dc position signal. The software controls start and stop ramping and maximum stepping rates. 2 figures, 1 table

Advanced driver assistance systems for teen drivers: Teen and parent impressions, perceived need, and intervention preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Eve; Fisher Thiel, Megan; Sultana, Nahida; Hannan, Chloe; Seacrist, Thomas

2018-02-28

From the advent of airbags to electronic stability control, technological advances introduced into automobile design have significantly reduced injury and death from motor vehicle crashes. These advances are especially pertinent among teen drivers, a population whose leading cause of death is motor vehicle crashes. Recently developed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have the potential to compensate for skill deficits and reduce overall crash risk. Yet, ADAS is only effective if drivers are willing to use it. Limited research has been conducted on the suitability of ADAS for teen drivers. The goal of this study is to identify teen drivers' perceived need for ADAS, receptiveness to in-vehicle technology, and intervention preferences. The long-term goal is to understand public perceptions and barriers to ADAS use and to help determine how these systems must evolve to meet the needs of the riskiest driving populations. Three focus groups (N = 24) were conducted with licensed teen drivers aged 16-19 years and 2 focus groups with parents of teen drivers (N = 12). Discussion topics included views on how ADAS might influence driving skills and behaviors; trust in technology; and data privacy. Discussions were transcribed; the team used conventional content analysis and open coding methods to identify 12 coding domains and code transcripts with NVivo 10. Interrater reliability testing showed moderate to high kappa scores. Overall, participants recognized potential benefits of ADAS, including improved safety and crash reduction. Teens suggested that ADAS is still developing and therefore has potential to malfunction. Many teens reported a greater trust in their own driving ability over vehicle technology. They expressed that novice drivers should learn to drive on non-ADAS-equipped cars and that ADAS should be considered a supplemental aid. Many teens felt that overreliance on ADAS may increase distracted driving or risky behaviors among teens. Parents also

Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

Smart truck driver assistant : a cost effective solution for real time management of container delivery to trucks: [research brief].

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

In this project, we developed a mobile application (app) that utilizes the rich environment and features of smartphones. Our app uses the widely available resources of smartphones (at no additional cost to drivers or terminals) to collect data from p...

Accounting for the Variation of Driver Aggression in the Simulation of Conventional and Advanced Vehicles: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neubauer, J.; Wood, E.

2013-03-01

Hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles offer the potential to reduce both oil imports and greenhouse gases, as well as to offer a financial benefit to the driver. However, assessing these potential benefits is complicated by several factors, including the driving habits of the operator. We focus on driver aggression, i.e., the level of acceleration and velocity characteristic of travel, to (1) assess its variation within large, real-world drive datasets, (2) quantify its effect on both vehicle efficiency and economics for multiple vehicle types, (3) compare these results to those of standard drive cycles commonly used in the industry, and (4) create a representative drive cycle for future analyses where standard drive cycles are lacking.

Factors Contributing to Crashes among Young Drivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lyndel J. Bates

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.

Volvo and Infiniti drivers' experiences with select crash avoidance technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Braitman, Keli A; McCartt, Anne T; Zuby, David S; Singer, Jeremiah

2010-06-01

Vehicle-based crash avoidance systems can potentially reduce crashes, but success depends on driver acceptance and understanding. This study gauged driver use, experience, and acceptance among early adopters of select technologies. Telephone interviews were conducted in early 2009 with 380 owners of Volvo vehicles equipped with forward collision warning with autobrake, lane departure warning, side-view assist, and/or active bi-xenon headlights and 485 owners of Infiniti vehicles with lane departure warning/prevention. Most owners kept systems turned on most of the time, especially forward collision warning with autobrake and side-view assist. The exception was lane departure prevention; many owners were unaware they had it, and the system must be activated each time the vehicle is started. Most owners reported being safer with the technologies and would want them again on their next vehicles. Perceived false or unnecessary warnings were fairly common, particularly with side-view assist. Some systems were annoying, especially lane departure warning. Many owners reported safer driving behaviors such as greater use of turn signals (lane departure warning), increased following distance (forward collision warning), and checking side mirrors more frequently (side-view assist), but some reported driving faster at night (active headlights). Despite some unnecessary or annoying warnings, most Volvo and Infiniti owners use crash avoidance systems most of the time. Among early adopters, the first requirement of effective warning systems (that owners use the technology) seems largely met. Systems requiring activation by drivers for each trip are used less often. Owner experience with the latest technologies from other automobile manufacturers should be studied, as well as for vehicles on which technologies are standard (versus optional) equipment. The effectiveness of technologies in preventing and mitigating crashes and injuries, and user acceptance of interfaces, should be

Important information for drivers in France

CERN Multimedia

2012-01-01

From 1 July 2012, any driver of a motorised road vehicle, excluding two- or three-wheeled vehicles whose engine capacity does not exceed 50cm3, must be in possession of a breathalyser in full working order. With effect from 1 November 2012*, drivers failing to produce a breathalyser run the risk of being served with an 11 euro fine. A breathalyser is used to measure the alcohol content in the motorist's breath. The permissible level of alcohol for drivers is less than 0.5 g of alcohol per litre of blood, or 0.25 mg of alcohol per litre of air exhaled. The obligation to have a breathalyser on board the vehicle also applies to all drivers on the French part of the CERN site. All vehicles belonging to or leased by the Organization must also carry a breathalyser together with all the requisite documentation (cf. Operational Circular No. 4). Drivers of privately owned vehicles can obtain breathalysers from car accessory dealers, service stations or pharmacies, etc. Drivers of vehicles belonging to or l...

20 CFR 416.2035 - Optional supplementation: Additional State options.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional supplementation: Additional State options. 416.2035 Section 416.2035 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION SUPPLEMENTAL... § 416.2035 Optional supplementation: Additional State options. (a) Residency requirement. A State or...

Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Tamidy

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility

Psychological influences for the driver by the changes of running circumstance; Jidosha no soko kankyo henka no driver eno shinriteki eikyo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okura, S; Yokomori, M; Yamaguchi, S [Meijo University, Nagoya (Japan)

1997-10-01

A driver is influenced psychologically by the cars proceeding on the street and the cars parked on the shoulder which come into the front view. The traffic accidents are caused when these influences put a lot of stress on a driver. In this report, we study the relations between the road traffic condition on the streets and the highway and the driver`s psychological and psysiological responses by using the driver`s front view, sweating and pulse rate. 6 refs., 8 figs.

School Bus Accidents and Driver Age.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Judith

The study examines the rates and types of school bus accidents according to the age of the school bus driver. Accident rates in North Carolina for the school year 1971-72 were analyzed using three sources of data: accident reports, driver and mileage data, and questionnaires administered to a sample of school bus drivers. Data were obtained on…

78 FR 76757 - Regulatory Guidance on Hours of Service of Drivers Rest Break Requirement; Drivers Who Become...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-19

... limitations for unforeseen reasons, is the driver in violation of the Sec. 395.3 rest break provision if more... unforeseen reasons, is not in violation of the Sec. 395.3 rest-break requirements if 8 or more hours have... Regulatory Guidance on Hours of Service of Drivers Rest Break Requirement; Drivers Who Become Ineligible for...

Economic assumptions for evaluating reactor-related options for managing plutonium