WorldWideScience

Sample records for real options analysis

  1. Real Options Analysis of Mining Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Rudolf Zdravlje

    2011-01-01

    When long life assets are being evaluated based on constant predictions of future variables and the assumptions of zero management flexibility, is value being missed? In project evaluation today, the most common evaluation methods that calculate a net present value are discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. A fourth method, which is beginning to gain ground in terms of its use in the mining industry, is real option analysis (ROA). ROA utilizes ...

  2. Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heggedal, Ane Marte

    2012-07-01

    This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

  3. Real option analysis in a replicating portfolio perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heeswijk, W.J.A.; Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Huisman, Kuno; Bos, Christian

    2013-01-01

    In the last decades, a vast body of literature has arisen on real option analysis (ROA). The use of di¤erent approaches and the often implicit adoption of major assumptions may cause confusion on what ROA precisely entails, or in which situations it may be applied. We assess the �eld of real option

  4. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  5. Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

    2015-04-01

    means that a real option can be deferred or exercised depending on the climate future that has been realised. The real option value is defined as the maximum positive NPV value that is found across the range of potential SLR "futures". Real Options add value in that flood defences may not be built when there is real value in doing so. The cost modelling output is in the form of an accessible database that has detailed real option values varying spatially across the model domain (for each critical infrastructure) and temporally up to 2100. The analysis has shown that in 2100, 8.2% of the substations analysed have a greater than a 1 in 2 chance of exercising the real option to build flood defences against coastal flooding. The cost modelling tool and flood maps that have been developed will help stakeholders in deciding where and when to invest in mitigating against coastal flooding.

  6. Sequencing Infrastructure Investments under Deep Uncertainty Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishtha Manocha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The adaptation tipping point and adaptation pathway approach developed to make decisions under deep uncertainty do not shed light on which among the multiple available pathways should be chosen as the preferred pathway. This creates the need to extend these approaches by means of suitable tools that can help sequence actions and subsequently enable the outlining of relevant policies. This paper presents two sequencing approaches, namely, the “Build to Target” and “Build Up” approach, to aid in sub-selecting a set of preferred pathways. Both approaches differ in the levels of flexibility they offer. They are exemplified by means of two case studies wherein the Net Present Valuation and the Real Options Analysis are employed as selection criterions. The results demonstrate the benefit of these two approaches when used in conjunction with the adaptation pathways and show how the pathways selected by means of a Build to Target approach generally have a value greater than, or at least the same as, the pathways selected by the Build Up approach. Further, this paper also demonstrates the capacity of Real Options to quantify and capture the economic value of flexibility, which cannot be done by traditional valuation approaches such as Net Present Valuation.

  7. Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Ching-Tsung; Lo, Shang-Lien; Lin, Tyrone T.

    2011-01-01

    The energy industry, accounts for the largest portion of CO 2 emissions, is facing the issue of compliance with the national clean energy policy. The methodology for evaluating the energy mix policy is crucial because of the characteristics of lead time embedded with the power generation facilities investment and the uncertainty of future electricity demand. In this paper, a modified binomial model based on sequential compound options, which may account for the lead time and uncertainty as a whole is established, and a numerical example on evaluating the optional strategies and the strategic value of the cleaner energy policy is also presented. It is found that the optimal decision at some nodes in the binomial tree is path dependent, which is different from the standard sequential compound option model with lead time or time lag concept. The proposed modified binomial sequential compound real options model can be generalized and extensively applied to solve the general decision problems that deal with the long lead time of many government policies as well as capital intensive investments. - Highlights: → Introducing a flexible strategic management approach for government policy making. → Developing a modified binomial real options model based on sequential compound options. → Proposing an innovative model for managing the long term policy with lead time. → Applying to evaluate the options of various scenarios of cleaner energy strategies.

  8. New perspective of real options theory for policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sadowski, B.M.

    2007-01-01

    In deze Reflectie geeft Sadowski een alternatief, of eigenlijk een aanvulling op de KBA, vanuit de real options theory, zoals die ook in de financiële sector gebruikt wordt. Het idee is dat er in dynamische markten veel ontwikkelingen zijn: technologisch, een markt in beweging of industriële

  9. A Real Options Analysis of Coffee Planting in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Luong, Quoc; Tauer, Loren W.

    2004-01-01

    Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world’s second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this paper examines Vietnamese coffee growers’ investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continu...

  10. Getting real with real options

    OpenAIRE

    M. R Grasselli

    2006-01-01

    We apply a utility-based method to obtain the value of a finite-time investment opportunity when the underlying real asset is not perfectly correlated to a traded financial asset. Using a discrete-time algorithm to calculate the indifference price for this type of real option, we present numerical examples for the corresponding investment thresholds, in particular highlighting their dependence with respect to correlation and risk aversion.

  11. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MAFTEI DANIEL

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

  12. Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

    2015-09-15

    Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rios, Jr., Cesar G; Housel, Thomas; Mun, Johnathan

    2006-01-01

    ...) on individual projects, programs, and processes within a portfolio of IT investments. Using KVA historical data as a platform, the authors evaluate potential strategic investments with real options analysis...

  14. THE THEORY OF REAL OPTIONS in investment ANALYSIS of agroforestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maísa Santos Joaquim

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study we compared the values generated by traditional economic analysis (Net Present Value - NPV with Real Options Method. The objective was to apply the method proposed by Copeland & Antikarov for rainbow options, due to three stochastic variables selected with decision of abandonment if the project value with flexibility was less than the value of the underlying stock. It enabled the flexibility value generation in order to entrepreneurs to have more confidence in their decision when they are investing in a project with Agroforestry System, with different scenarios visualization in a single analysis. The results evidenced that the economic viability analysis, using Real Options, provided the best view of the possible scenarios, within a range generated by the prices volatility. The Net Present Value adopted as the underlying stock value was R$ 5,684.32, using the discount rate (WACC of 9.95% and risk-free interest rate of 7.5%. To determine the volatility were calculated: the logarithmic return standard deviation (27.06, the average (0.0883, upward movements values (u (1.3107 with 61.34% of probability and downward movements values (d(0.7628 with 38.66%  of probability. The option value in case of abandonment was R$ 2,059.01/ha positive. The results showed that the NPV overestimated the project return and that it would be viable to abandon it.

  15. A real option analysis of investments in hydropower-The case of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjaerland, Frode

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a valuation study of hydropower investment opportunities in the Norwegian context. According to NVE (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, the regulator), there is a potential of 39 TWh not yet developed (generation in a normal year is approximately 120 TWh). By using the conceptual real option framework of Dixit and Pindyck [1994. Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] one can estimate the value of investment opportunities to NOK 11 million/GWh (EUR 1.4 million/GWh). Furthermore, the optimal trigger price for initiating an investment based on electricity forward prices is calculated to NOK 0.32/kWh (EUR 0.04/kWh). The analysis shows consistency between real option theory and aggregate investment behaviour in Norwegian hydropower

  16. Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Náplava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

  17. Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, G.; Owens, B.

    2003-02-01

    One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

  18. When to Wait for More Evidence? Real Options Analysis in Proton Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrams, Keith R.; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Pijls-Johannesma, Madelon; Peters, Hans J.M.; Beutner, Eric; Lambin, Philippe; Joore, Manuela A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. Trends suggest that cancer spending growth will accelerate. One method for controlling costs is to examine whether the benefits of new technologies are worth the extra costs. However, especially new and emerging technologies are often more costly, while limited clinical evidence of superiority is available. In that situation it is often unclear whether to adopt the new technology now, with the risk of investing in a suboptimal therapy, or to wait for more evidence, with the risk of withholding patients their optimal treatment. This trade-off is especially difficult when it is costly to reverse the decision to adopt a technology, as is the case for proton therapy. Real options analysis, a technique originating from financial economics, assists in making this trade-off. Methods. We examined whether to adopt proton therapy, as compared to stereotactic body radiotherapy, in the treatment of inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. Three options are available: adopt without further research; adopt and undertake a trial; or delay adoption and undertake a trial. The decision depends on the expected net gain of each option, calculated by subtracting its total costs from its expected benefits. Results. In The Netherlands, adopt and trial was found to be the preferred option, with an optimal sample size of 200 patients. Increase of treatment costs abroad and costs of reversal altered the preferred option. Conclusion. We have shown that real options analysis provides a transparent method of weighing the costs and benefits of adopting and/or further researching new and expensive technologies. PMID:22147003

  19. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

  20. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Shashi; Roelofs, Ferry; Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs

  1. Cost-effective design of ringwall storage hybrid power plants: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weibel, Sebastian; Madlener, Reinhard

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic viability, optimal size, and siting of a hybrid ringwall hydro power plant. • Real options analysis for optimal investment timing and stochastic storage volumes. • Stochastic PV and solar power production affects optimal size of the storage device. • Monte Carlo simulation is used for wind/solar power, el. price, and investment cost. • Numerical computations for two different hybrid ringwall storage plant scenarios. - Abstract: We study the economic viability and optimal sizing and siting of a hybrid plant that combines a ringwall hydro storage system with wind and solar power plants (ringwall storage hybrid power plant, RSHPP). A real options model is introduced to analyze the economics of an onshore RSHPP, and in particular of the varying storage volume in light of the stochastic character of wind and solar power, as well as the optimal investment timing under uncertainty. In fact, many uncertainties arise in such a project. Energy production is determined by the stochastic character of wind and solar power, and affects the optimal size of the storage device. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to analyze the following sources of uncertainty: (i) wind intensity and solar irradiation; (ii) future electricity price; and (iii) investment costs. The results yield the optimal size of the storage device; the energy market on which the operator should sell the electricity generated; numerical examples for two different RSHPP scenarios; and a real options model for analyzing the opportunity to defer the project investment and thus to exploit the value of waiting

  2. Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission investments in order to develop the system at minimum cost meeting the requirements of generators and consumers, while keeping adequate levels of service quality and reliability. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on real options analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that would lead transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of a transmission investor trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission system. - Highlights: • Regulatory frameworks for efficient and timely transmission expansions are designed. • Irreversibility and uncertainty of transmission investment is properly accounted for. • Response of network investors to regulatory incentives is quantitatively established

  3. Benefits and Limitations of Real Options Analysis for the Practice of River Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kind, Jarl M.; Baayen, Jorn H.; Botzen, W. J. Wouter

    2018-04-01

    Decisions on long-lived flood risk management (FRM) investments are complex because the future is uncertain. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. Real options analysis (ROA) provides a welfare-economics framework to design and evaluate robust and flexible FRM strategies under risk or uncertainty. Although its potential benefits are large, ROA is hardly used in todays' FRM practice. In this paper, we investigate benefits and limitations of a ROA, by applying it to a realistic FRM case study for an entire river branch. We illustrate how ROA identifies optimal short-term investments and values future options. We develop robust dike investment strategies and value the flexibility offered by additional room for the river measures. We benchmark the results of ROA against those of a standard cost-benefit analysis and show ROA's potential policy implications. The ROA for a realistic case requires a high level of geographical detail, a large ensemble of scenarios, and the inclusion of stakeholders' preferences. We found several limitations of applying the ROA. It is complex. In particular, relevant sources of uncertainty need to be recognized, quantified, integrated, and discretized in scenarios, requiring subjective choices and expert judgment. Decision trees have to be generated and stakeholders' preferences have to be translated into decision rules. On basis of this study, we give general recommendations to use high discharge scenarios for the design of measures with high fixed costs and few alternatives. Lower scenarios may be used when alternatives offer future flexibility.

  4. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-30

    14 IV. Proof-of-Concept: USS Readiness Case Study 16 A. Background 17 B. Applying KVA Methodology 19 C. KVA Results 20 D. Real Options Analysis 23...technology assets. • Quantifying intangible human capital assets (i.e., training, skills, knowledge). The average large company spends the equivalent of...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

  5. Investment opportunity in China's overseas oil project: An empirical analysis based on real option approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Bao-Jun; Zhou, Hui-Ling; Chen, Hao; Wang, Kai; Cao, Hong

    2017-01-01

    China's overseas oil investments uphold national energy security. Located in the complex international economic and political environment, the benefits of overseas oil projects are affected by various uncertainties. Oil companies call for a set of evaluation method dealing with these uncertainties, especially when encountering low-oil-price conditions. It is much more crucial to answer when to optimally invest rather than whether to invest. This paper analyzes the investment opportunity of an oil project in the development and production phase considering uncertainty, irreversibility and management flexibility. The decision-making process combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method and the trinomial tree model of Real Option Approach (ROA). For practical purposes, tools of hurdle price, cumulative probability and decision tree are adopted. In addition, results of the case project show the economic feasibility at present and optimal start-up timing at the end of 2016. Besides, the lower cost parameters generally make it easier to meet the opportunity. The scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contributes to an earlier start-up. Furthermore, the issues of method applicability, investment signals and decision-lag effects are discussed. - Highlights: • Volatility is combined with fluctuations in oil price, exchange rate and political situation. • Hurdle price is adopted as a critical price to measure investment opportunity. • Scenario analysis suggests the higher risk contribute to earlier investment timing.

  6. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-09-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  7. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, Giorgio; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni

    2014-01-01

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  8. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

    2014-03-15

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  9. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres R. Jácome

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H and exit (L prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  10. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-01-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  11. A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria

    OpenAIRE

    Seyoum, Emayenesh; Chan, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a use of a real-options valuation methodology to analyse wine grape farm investment under price and yield uncertainty. Revenue levels to incentivise entry and exit were calculated for three different sizes of wine grape farms in North West Victoria. The modelling identified lower exit and higher entry triggers than indicated by conventional net present value calculation. The wide gap of estimated indeterminacy in farm investment highlights the intertwined influence of numer...

  12. Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arasteh, Abdollah

    2016-09-01

    Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

  13. The value of product flexibility in nuclear hydrogen technologies: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Yildiz, Bilge; Conzelmann, Guenter; Petri, Mark C.

    2009-01-01

    Previous economic studies of nuclear hydrogen technologies focused on levelized costs without accounting for risks and uncertainties faced by potential investors. To address some of these risks and uncertainties, we used real options theory to assess the profitability of three nuclear hydrogen production technologies in evolving electricity and hydrogen markets. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to represent the uncertainty in hydrogen and electricity prices. The model computes both the expected value and the distribution of discounted profits from the production plant. It also quantifies the value of the option to switch between hydrogen and electricity production. Under these assumptions, we conclude that investors will find significant value in the capability to switch plant output between electricity and hydrogen. (author)

  14. Research into real-option evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Wakamatsu, Hitoshi

    2002-03-01

    As an evaluational method for valuation of a corporation, an investment project, a research and development, or the evaluation technique of an enterprise strategy, a real option analysis attracts attention instead of conventional Discount Cash Flow method. The reason is that it can divert the technique for the option valuation in financial engineering to the decision-making process performed according to change in investment environment. Related references, the analysis tools, the application examples, etc. were investigated about the decision-making technique using real option analysis, and this investigation considered the application method to decision-making of the research and development at Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute. Consequently, since the feature is in real option analysis being the evaluation technique on condition of that business conditions and business itself also change, the real option analysis fits for evaluation of a research and development that business conditions were opaque and it turns out that the businesses are highly flexible. Moreover, it turns out that it fits also for evaluation of a capital concentration type investment issue like power plants. (author)

  15. Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    the sale of assets for salvage value. However, for defense R&D projects, since there is no secondhand market for the projects, this option is...Peli, 2001; Panayi & Trigeorgis, 1998; Perlitz et al., 1999). Moreover, there are also very comprehensive books on the theory and practice of

  16. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casper Agaton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

  17. Optimal feed-in tariff for solar photovoltaic power generation in China: A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, M.M.; Zhou, D.Q.; Zhou, P.; Liu, G.Q.

    2016-01-01

    The feed-in tariff policy is widely used to promote the development of renewable energy. China also adopts feed-in tariff policy to attract greater investment in solar photovoltaic power generation. This study employs real options method to assess the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs in 30 provinces of China. The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. A method that integrates the backward dynamic programming algorithm and Least-Squares Monte Carlo method is used to solve the model. The results demonstrate that the feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh. On this basis, we find that the levels of sub-regional feed-in tariff announced in 2013 are no longer appropriate and should be adjusted as soon as possible. We have also identified the implications of technological progress and carbon emission trading schemes, as well as the importance of strengthening electricity transmission. It has been suggested that the Chinese government takes diverse measures, including increasing research and development investment, establishing and improving a nationwide carbon emission trading scheme and accelerating the construction of electricity-transmission infrastructure, to reduce the required feed-in tariff and promote the development of solar photovoltaic power generation. - Highlights: • We estimate the optimal levels of feed-in tariffs for 30 provinces in China by using real options method. • The uncertainties in CO_2 price and investment cost are considered. • The feed-in tariffs of 30 provinces range from 0.68 RMB/kWh to 1.71 RMB/kWh, and the average level is 1.01 RMB/kWh.

  18. THE REAL OPTIONS OF CAPITAL BUDGET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martins

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional techniques of capital budget, as the deducted cash flow and the net value present, do not incorporate existing flexibilities in an investment project, they tend to distort the value of certain investments, mainly those that are considered in scenes of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, this study intends to demonstrate that the Real Options Theory (TOR is a useful methodology to evaluate and to indicate the best option for project of expansion investment. To reach the considered objective the procedure method was used a case study, having as unit of case the Resort Praia Hotel do Litoral Norte of Salvador. This study was developed of the following form: first it identified the traditional net value present and later it was incorporated the volatileness of each analyzed uncertainty. Second, as the real options are analogous to the financial options, it was necessary to identify elements that composed the terminologies of the financial options with intention to get the value of the real option. For this model of options pricing of Black & Scholes jointly with a computational simulator was used (SLS to get the expanded net value present. As a result of this study it was possible to evidence that using the traditional tool of capital budget Net Value Present (VPL is negative, therefore the project of expansion of the Hotel would be rejected. While for the application of methodology TOR the project presents positive Expanded Present Value which would represent an excellent chance of investment. Key-word: Capital budget, Real options, Analysis of investments.

  19. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    Offshore wind farms in future meshed offshore grids could be subject to different regulatory regimes. Feed-in tariffs would absorb market risk from wind farm operators, whereas price premium mechanisms leave operators exposed to market price signals. In this case, it plays a decisive role which...... price applies to a node in an offshore grid. The offshore node will either be integrated into any of the neighbouring markets, with access to the respective maximum price, or be subject to separate nodal pricing. We investigate the different regulatory regimes for connections to one to four countries...... based on a stochastic model capturing uncertainties in prices and line failures. The stochastic analysis shows that in case the wind park is granted access to the respective maximum price, there is a significant option value connected to the operational flexibility of accessing several markets: The wind...

  20. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    based on a stochastic model capturing uncertainties in prices and line failures. The stochastic analysis shows that in case the wind park is granted access to the respective maximum price, there is a significant option value connected to the operational flexibility of accessing several markets: The wind......Offshore wind farms in future meshed offshore grids could be subject to different regulatory regimes. Feed-in tariffs would absorb market risk from wind farm operators, whereas price premium mechanisms leave operators exposed to market price signals. In this case, it plays a decisive role which...... price applies to a node in an offshore grid. The offshore node will either be integrated into any of the neighbouring markets, with access to the respective maximum price, or be subject to separate nodal pricing. We investigate the different regulatory regimes for connections to one to four countries...

  1. Valuing of research project in energy field with real options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Blasio, N.; Marzo, G.; Turatto, R.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents an application of real options theory for valuing a research project in the field of stranded gas valorisation. After a presentation of the theory, the analysis addresses the use of real options evaluation for generating alternative pathways in order to add new value to the R D projects. It also shows how real option approach may be important for selecting among competitive projects, but also for providing a system for valorisation of decision-maker flexibility [it

  2. INVESTMENT IN ANTIVIRAL DRUGS : A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, Arthur E.; Lugner, Anna K.; Feenstra, Talitha L.

    2010-01-01

    Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations

  3. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  4. Valuing real options: frequently made errors

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández, Pablo

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we analyze frequently made errors when valuing real options. The best way of doing it is through examples. We start by analyzing Damodaran's proposal to value the option to expand the business of Home Depot. Some of the errors and problems of this and other approaches are: - Assuming that the option is replicable and using Black and Scholes' formula. - The estimation of the option's volatility is arbitrary and has a decisive effect on the option's value. - As there is no riskles...

  5. Franchise ownership redirection: real options perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Nugroho, Lukito Adi

    2016-01-01

    Background: For over 40 years, the franchise ownership redirection hypothesis has attracted the attention of many scholars. This study, differing from previous ones, proposes an alternative approach for this hypothesis using a real options framework with the extension of agency theory. Method: The real options model is built using the least square Monte Carlo method, where the franchisor's decision to franchise is perceived as a deferred investment while maintaining the right of future acquis...

  6. Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

  7. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C.

    2011-11-01

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  8. Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2007-01-01

    -adopters (UK, Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The study furthermore shows that small, profitable and financially constrained firms...... are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro. The results go beyond the immediate trade effects, which empirical studies have shown to be weak and without trade diversion as to the three non-adopters, and provide important insights about the potential long...

  9. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    McShane, Edward James

    2013-01-01

    This text surveys practical elements of real function theory, general topology, and functional analysis. Discusses the maximality principle, the notion of convergence, the Lebesgue-Stieltjes integral, function spaces and harmonic analysis. Includes exercises. 1959 edition.

  10. Real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to perform a real options valuation of fusion energy R and D programme. Strategic value of thermonuclear fusion technology is estimated here based on the expected cash flows from construction and operation of fusion power plants and the real options value arising due to managerial flexibility and the underlying uncertainty. First, a basic investment option model of Black-Scholes type is being considered. Then, a fuzzy compound real R and D option model is elaborated, which reflects in a better way the multi-stage nature of the programme and takes into account the imprecision of information as one of the components of the overall programme uncertainty. Two different strategies are compared: 'Baseline' corresponding to a relatively moderate pace of fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment activities vs. 'Accelerated' strategy, which assumes a rapid demonstration and massive deployment of fusion. The conclusions are drawn from the model calculations regarding the strategic value of fusion energy R and D and the advantages of accelerated development path. - Research highlights: → Real options analysis of fusion R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) programme. → ENPV of fusion RDDD programme is calculated using stochastic probabilistic simulation. → Fusion RDDD programme exhibits substantial positive real options value: Euro 245 billion. → Fuzzy compound real option valuation method provides more robust results.

  11. Acquisitions and Real Options : The Greenfield Alternative

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouthers, Keith D.; Dikova, Desislava

    P>Although acquisitions are a popular way to enter new markets, empirical evidence tends to indicate few benefits accrue to acquiring firms. This might be the case because firms use acquisitions when they should be employing an alternative mode of expansion. Applying real options theory to this

  12. The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, James S.

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

  13. Capacity payment impact on gas-fired generation investments under rising renewable feed-in — A real options analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hach, Daniel; Spinler, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    We assess the effect of capacity payments on investments in gas-fired power plants in the presence of different degrees of renewable energy technology (RET) penetration. Low variable cost renewables increasingly make investments in gas-fired generation unprofitable. At the same time, growing feed-in from intermittent RETs amplifies fluctuations in power generation, thus entailing the need for flexible buffer capacity—currently mostly gas-fired power plants. A real options approach is applied to evaluate investment decisions and timing of a single investor in gas-fired power generation. We investigate the necessity and effectiveness of capacity payments. Our model incorporates multiple uncertainties and assesses the effect of capacity payments under different degrees of RET penetration. In a numerical study, we implement stochastic processes for peak-load electricity prices and natural gas prices. We find that capacity payments are an effective measure to promote new gas-fired generation projects. Especially in times of high renewable feed-in, capacity payments are required to incentivize peak-load investments. - Highlights: • We assess capacity payments under the specific focus of the influence of different degrees of renewable feed-in. • We use a real options approach to analyze investment decision and timing. • Our model reflects stochastic gas prices and stochastic electricity prices. • The case study shows the value of capacity payments to investors especially under high renewable feed-in.

  14. Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pringles, Rolando; Olsina, Fernando; Garcés, Francisco

    2015-01-01

    Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that enables planners to take advantage of market opportunities while preventing or mitigating losses if future conditions evolve unfavorably. In the past, many approaches for valuing real options have been developed. However, applying these methods to value transmission projects is often inappropriate as revenue cash flows are path-dependent and affected by a myriad of uncertain variables. In this work, a valuation technique based on stochastic simulation and recursive dynamic programming, called Least-Square Monte Carlo, is applied to properly value the deferral option in a transmission investment. The effect of option's maturity, the initial outlay and the capital cost upon the value of the postponement option is investigated. Finally, sensitivity analysis determines optimal decision regions to execute, postpone or reject the investment projects. - Highlights: • A modern investment appraisal method is applied to value power transmission projects. • The value of the option to postpone decision to invest in transmission projects is assessed. • Simulation methods are best suited for valuing real options in transmission investments

  15. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Loeb, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    This textbook is designed for a year-long course in real analysis taken by beginning graduate and advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and other areas such as statistics, engineering, and economics. Written by one of the leading scholars in the field, it elegantly explores the core concepts in real analysis and introduces new, accessible methods for both students and instructors. The first half of the book develops both Lebesgue measure and, with essentially no additional work for the student, general Borel measures for the real line. Notation indicates when a result holds only for Lebesgue measure. Differentiation and absolute continuity are presented using a local maximal function, resulting in an exposition that is both simpler and more general than the traditional approach. The second half deals with general measures and functional analysis, including Hilbert spaces, Fourier series, and the Riesz representation theorem for positive linear functionals on continuous functions with compact support....

  16. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DiBenedetto, Emmanuele

    2016-01-01

    The second edition of this classic textbook presents a rigorous and self-contained introduction to real analysis with the goal of providing a solid foundation for future coursework and research in applied mathematics. Written in a clear and concise style, it covers all of the necessary subjects as well as those often absent from standard introductory texts. Each chapter features a “Problems and Complements” section that includes additional material that briefly expands on certain topics within the chapter and numerous exercises for practicing the key concepts. The first eight chapters explore all of the basic topics for training in real analysis, beginning with a review of countable sets before moving on to detailed discussions of measure theory, Lebesgue integration, Banach spaces, functional analysis, and weakly differentiable functions. More topical applications are discussed in the remaining chapters, such as maximal functions, functions of bounded mean oscillation, rearrangements, potential theory, a...

  17. Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

    works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option....... It is thus important for ship owners to consider the available options before proceeding with abandoning or investing strategy. The proposed framework can be widely applied to other ship retrofitting investment evaluations, which include similar investment alternatives and uncertainties....

  18. Acquisitions Through a Behavioral and Real Options Lens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C.M. Kil (Joris)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis combines four studies that contribute to our understanding of corporate acquisitions by taking a behavioral and real options perspective. Chapter 2 classifies acquisitions based on real option characteristics and shows option type (single vs. compound) and option nature

  19. Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

    2006-07-01

    This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

  20. Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

    2005-08-01

    Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

  1. Some new features of Direct Analysis in Real Time mass spectrometry utilizing the desorption at an angle option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernetsova, Elena S; Revelsky, Alexander I; Morlock, Gertrud E

    2011-08-30

    The present study is a first step towards the unexplored capabilities of Direct Analysis in Real Time (DART) mass spectrometry (MS) arising from the possibility of the desorption at an angle: scanning analysis of surfaces, including the coupling of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) with DART-MS, and a more sensitive analysis due to the preliminary concentration of analytes dissolved in large volumes of liquids on glass surfaces. In order to select the most favorable conditions for DART-MS analysis, proper positioning of samples is important. Therefore, a simple and cheap technique for the visualization of the impact region of the DART gas stream onto a substrate was developed. A filter paper or TLC plate, previously loaded with the analyte, was immersed in a derivatization solution. On this substrate, owing to the impact of the hot DART gas, reaction of the analyte to a colored product occurred. An improved capability of detection of DART-MS for the analysis of liquids was demonstrated by applying large volumes of model solutions of coumaphos into small glass vessels and drying these solutions prior to DART-MS analysis under ambient conditions. This allowed the introduction of, by up to more than two orders of magnitude, increased quantities of analyte compared with the conventional DART-MS analysis of liquids. Through this improved detectability, the capabilities of DART-MS in trace analysis could be strengthened. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Development of real options model for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kenji

    2004-01-01

    As the Japanese electricity market is deregulated, it becomes more important for electric utilities to recognize their financial risks and to adopt strategic and scientific decision making methodology. We have developed two models for valuation of Japanese nuclear power plants to support utilities' decision making. One is a net present value (NPV) model using discounted cash flow analysis method. Another is a real options model. This model is based on strict financial technology theory and can calculate value of early retirement, life extension and new unit addition options of nuclear units under electricity price uncertainty. This can also derive an optimal period for retirement, life extension and new unit addition. (author)

  3. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Havlíček

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

  4. Retrospective insights from real options in R&D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    Absent empirical validation of real option pricing in R&D, we discuss the evolution of three cases in R&D option valuation. The first case concerns an option on conversion of an existing production process. The other two cases concern R&D to develop new product technology in the consumer electronics

  5. Towards phronetic knowledge for strategic planning in corporate real estate management: A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A promising approach to classifying and evaluating flexibility in real estate is the real options approach. Most

  6. Flexibility and Project Value: Interactions and Multiple Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Čulík, Miroslav

    2010-06-01

    This paper is focused on a project valuation with embedded portfolio of real options including their interactions. Valuation is based on the criterion of Net Present Value on the simulation basis. Portfolio includes selected types of European-type real options: option to expand, contract, abandon and temporarily shut down and restart a project. Due to the fact, that in reality most of the managerial flexibility takes the form of portfolio of real options, selected types of options are valued not only individually, but also in combination. The paper is structured as follows: first, diffusion models for forecasting of output prices and variable costs are derived. Second, project value is estimated on the assumption, that no real options are present. Next, project value is calculated with the presence of selected European-type options; these options and their impact on project value are valued first in isolation and consequently in different combinations. Moreover, intrinsic value evolution of given real options with respect to the time of exercising is analysed. In the end, results are presented graphically; selected statistics and risk measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the NPV's distributions are calculated and commented.

  7. The Real Options Attached to an Investment Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai-Cristian DINICĂ

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The real options capture the importance of the managerial team’s role in creating value through investment projects. The investments in real assets have a set of options that managers can exercise during the period of the project to increase the value of the assets or to limit the eventual losses. This options have their own value.The traditional methods for investment project evaluatioan, based on discounted cash flows, have some major disadvantages: they assume the irreversibility of a decision, do not take into account the interactions between decisions in several periods and treat the investment as pasive. The evaluation using real options undertake this disadvantage. The paper shows the main types of real options, together with their elements and captures the impact of these options on the value of the investment. The main two models used to evaluate real options, the binomial model and Black-Scholes model, are explained and used to compute the value of real options attached to an investment project.

  8. Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Tyrone T. [Department of International Business, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Road, Shou-Feng, Hualien 974, Taiwan (China)]. E-mail: tjlin@mail.ndhu.edu.tw; Ko, C.-C. [Department of International Trade, Jin Wen Institute of Technology, Taiwan (China); Yeh, H.-N. [Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, Taiwan (China)

    2007-04-15

    This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions.

  9. Applying real options in investment decisions relating to environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Ko, C.-C.; Yeh, H.-N.

    2007-01-01

    This study focuses on how to assess the optimal environmental investment decisions under economic and ecological uncertainty, and establishes the continuous time model using the real option approach to optimize environmental pollution policy. Unlike traditional cost benefit analysis, this work extends the model of [Pindyck, R.S., 2002. Optimal timing problems in environmental economics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26(9-10), 1677-1697], and attempts to identify the storage threshold of pollution stocks and the optimal timing for implementing environmental pollution decisions

  10. Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

    2017-05-01

    The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

  11. Capital renewal as a real option

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reindorp, M.J.; Fu, M.C.

    2011-01-01

    We consider the timing of replacement of obsolete subsystems within an extensive, complex infrastructure. Such replacement action, known as capital renewal, must balance uncertainty about future profitability against uncertainty about future renewal costs. Treating renewal investments as real

  12. Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

    2017-02-01

    This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. MODERN OPTIONS FOR THE FINANCING OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiriac Silviu-Cornel-Virgil

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The investments represent one of the most important elements in the national economy development strategies, as well as in all the business fields and branches. The notion of investment is extremely complex, perceived with different meanings and significates. In a general, wider meaning the investments represent a capital placement which is made with the purpose of obtaining profit bearing incomes in the future. In a narrower meaning, investments mean the totality of expenses made for obtaining capital assets which are future potential factors in the formation of incomes. Investments represent the most important factor in the development strategies of the national economy as well as in all the business fields and branches. The investment strategy represents an important element in the management of the investments and a component of the general strategy of the entity. The use of investment strategies in the management activity implies the application of scientific techniques and methods. The great number of studies carried out shows that there were no certain answers formed, very often the option for a form of financing or the other is influenced only by the “level of accessibility” of the resources available on the financial market and the financing policy of many companies is guided rather by the constraints of the financial market than a coherent company strategy In order to ensure a constant economic growth it is necessary to prepare investment projects. In practice the predominant one is the investment activity based on real investments performed for the modernising of assets, in order to ensure their physical and moral wear and tear. The analysis of real estate investments can be made using a various range of indicators, from the traditional ones to those based on the updated cash flow, using traditional analysis techniques or complex techniques used by specialists with training in the analysis of real estate investment. The

  14. Corporate investment under uncertainty and competition : A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.

    2003-01-01

    Corporate investment opportunities can be represented as a set of (real) options to acquire productive assets. Identification of the optimal exercise strategies for these options plays a crucial role in improving the quality of capital budgeting decisions and, as a consequence, in maximizing

  15. The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwankpa, Joseph K.

    2012-01-01

    Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

  16. Real Options in Capital Budgeting. Pricing the Option to Delay and the Option to Abandon a Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Vintila

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional discounted cash-flows method for assessing projects assumes that investment decision is an irreversible one, which is not correct. Managers can and must reconsider their initial decision as the new information arises during the project life. This is managerial flexibility and it creates strategic value for a project, only if management takes advantage of the opportunities associated with an analyzed project. Real options represent a new approach in capital budgeting, using the theory of pricing financial options for investments in real assets. In this paper, we emphasize the characteristics and valuation methodologies of real options. The objective in the last section is pricing the option to delay and the option to abandon a project in construction materials field.

  17. The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The use of fuzzy real option valuation method to rank Giga Investment Projects on Iran's natural gas reserves. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... methodology – discounted cash flow analysis – in valuation of Giga investments.

  18. Real options and volume uncertainty by field development projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekern, S.; Stensland, G.

    1993-12-01

    The report concerns a study on the use of option methodology in field development projects. The report shows how the value of flexibility in the different decision processes is to be found by means of real option methodology. Particular attention is laid on the uncertainty concerning the volume of reserves and production capacity. The results from the study were based on the research project dubbed ''Use of real options in field development projects''. The project is partially connected to another project dubbed ''Decisive behaviour and alternative action under uncertainty in the petroleum sector''. Main topics cover as follow: Example with volume uncertainty; real options and volume uncertainty; gradual disclosure of uncertainty in the production; value of flexible production equipment. 33 refs., 19 figs., 17 tabs

  19. Quantifying the value of investing in distributed natural gas and renewable electricity systems as complements: Applications of discounted cash flow and real options analysis with stochastic inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pless, Jacquelyn; Arent, Douglas J.; Logan, Jeffrey; Cochran, Jaquelin; Zinaman, Owen

    2016-01-01

    One energy policy objective in the United States is to promote the adoption of technologies that provide consumers with stable, secure, and clean energy. Recent work provides anecdotal evidence of natural gas (NG) and renewable electricity (RE) synergies in the power sector, however few studies quantify the value of investing in NG and RE systems together as complements. This paper uses discounted cash flow analysis and real options analysis to value hybrid NG-RE systems in distributed applications, focusing on residential and commercial projects assumed to be located in the states of New York and Texas. Technology performance and operational risk profiles are modeled at the hourly level to capture variable RE output and NG prices are modeled stochastically as geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic processes to capture NG price uncertainty. The findings consistently suggest that NG-RE hybrid distributed systems are more favorable investments in the applications studied relative to their single-technology alternatives when incentives for renewables are available. In some cases, NG-only systems are the favorable investments. Understanding the value of investing in NG-RE hybrid systems provides insights into one avenue towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions, given the important role of NG and RE in the power sector. - Highlights: • Natural gas and renewable electricity can be viewed as complements. • We model hybrid natural gas and renewable electricity systems at the hourly level. • We incorporate variable renewable power output and uncertain natural gas prices. • Hybrid natural gas and renewable electricity systems can be valuable investments.

  20. Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

    2016-01-01

    Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies with multinat......Previous literature provides multiple conflicting arguments on why and when multinationality should enhance or impede the value-relevance of firms’ real options. We address this issue by examining whether the relationship between stock returns and changes in return volatility varies...... with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

  1. Real Option--A New Approach in the Evaluation of Telecom Investment Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Hong

    2005-01-01

    This paper gives a new method into the evaluating system of telecom investment projects, I.e. Real Option. This may overcome the defects resulted from employing Net Present Value (NPV), which is now used in the evaluation of telecom projects. A theoretical analysis of Real Option is provided, followed by an example of telecom investment project to illustrate the differences between the two methods.

  2. Estimating the influence of U.S. ethanol policy on plant investment decisions: A real options analysis with two stochastic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmit, T.M.; Luo, J.; Conrad, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    U.S. ethanol policies have contributed to changes in the levels and the volatilities of revenues and costs facing ethanol firms. The implications of these policies for optimal investment behavior are investigated through an extension of the real options framework that allows for the consideration of volatility in both revenue and cost components, as well as the correlation between them. The effects of policy affecting plant revenues dominate the effects of those policies affecting production costs. In the absence of these policies, much of the recent expansionary periods would have not existed and market conditions in the late-1990s would have led to some plant closures. We also show that, regardless of plant size, U.S. ethanol policy has narrowed the distance between the optimal entry and exit curves, implying a more narrow range of inactivity and indicative of a more volatile evolution for the industry than would have existed otherwise. - Highlights: ► An extended real options framework with two stochastic variables is developed. ► Ethanol expansion largely induced by the revenue-enhancing effects of policy. ► Removing effects of policy changes optimal entry/exit environment considerably. ► To expand US ethanol industry, size of policy contributions needs to grow. ► US ethanol policy has fostered more volatile industry development.

  3. Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Yung Medeiros

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

  4. How Do Real Options Concepts Fit in Agile Requirements Engineering?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Racheva, Z.; Daneva, Maia

    Agile requirements engineering is driven by creating business value for the client and heavily involves the client in decision-making under uncertainty. Real option thinking seems to be suitable in supporting the client’s decision making process at inter-iteration time. This paper investigates the

  5. A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

  6. Capacity choice in (strategic) real options models : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huberts, Nick; Huisman, Kuno; Kort, Peter; Lavrutich, Maria

    2015-01-01

    The theory of real options determines the optimal time to invest in a project of given size. As a main result, it is found that in a more uncertain environment, it is optimal for a firm to delay its investment. In other words, uncertainty generates a “value of waiting.” Recently, contributions

  7. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model; Analisis de viabilidad en la propuesta de expansion de la central nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde: aplicacion de opciones reales, modelo binomial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C., E-mail: lunitza@gmail.com [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Circuito Interior, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  8. Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

    2017-08-01

    Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

  9. Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakić Biljana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

  10. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  11. Real analysis and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Botelho, Fabio Silva

    2018-01-01

    This textbook introduces readers to real analysis in one and n dimensions. It is divided into two parts: Part I explores real analysis in one variable, starting with key concepts such as the construction of the real number system, metric spaces, and real sequences and series. In turn, Part II addresses the multi-variable aspects of real analysis. Further, the book presents detailed, rigorous proofs of the implicit theorem for the vectorial case by applying the Banach fixed-point theorem and the differential forms concept to surfaces in Rn. It also provides a brief introduction to Riemannian geometry. With its rigorous, elegant proofs, this self-contained work is easy to read, making it suitable for undergraduate and beginning graduate students seeking a deeper understanding of real analysis and applications, and for all those looking for a well-founded, detailed approach to real analysis.

  12. Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

  13. Costing the EPR Project Using the Real Options Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epaulard, Anne; Gallon, Stephane

    2001-01-01

    Real options theory makes it possible to cost investments which offer flexibility but whose returns are uncertain, such as the construction in 2000 of an EPR prototype; this prototype will enable the European pressurised-water reactor (EPR) to be used to renew EDF's nuclear power stations in 2020 (flexibility) but its economic worth will then depend on the cost of the competing gas-fired power plants (uncertain return). Options theory shows that investing in EPR technology in 2000 provides sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered cost-effective, even though use of EPRs is unlikely by that date. The investment made in 2000 to develop EPR technology therefore actually plays the part of an option or, in other words, insurance (against the risk of high gas prices)

  14. What is the (Real Option) Value of a College Degree?

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey R. Stokes

    2013-01-01

    The value of a college degree is often quantified as the difference in earnings between those with and without a degree. The research presented here operationalizes this idea in two important ways. First, since future income and tuition are uncertain, a contingent claims model is developed and the appropriate discount rate for valuing future earnings is, therefore, endogenized given an economy that does not permit arbitrage. Second, the model is sensitive to the valuation of the real option t...

  15. GASIFICACIÓN DE CARBÓN PARA GENERACIÓN DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA: ANÁLISIS CON VALORACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES COAL GASIFICATION FOR POWER GENERATION: ANALYSIS WITH REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Concha A

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Se evalúa económicamente la utilización de la tecnología de gasificación de carbón en la generación de energía eléctrica, utilizando información secundaria y el enfoque de valoración de opciones reales mediante árboles binomiales de 2 variables. Se analiza el caso de adaptar una central existente de gas natural de ciclo combinado (NGCC para la utilización de syngas a partir de carbón; en un segundo caso, se evalúa la instalación de una nueva central termoeléctrica de carbón pulverizado (PC o alternativamente una central de gasificación de carbón integrada a ciclo combinado (IGCC. En este último caso, se evalúa la opción de "switching" de combustible. Para los precios de los combustibles se emplean modelos de Movimiento Browniano Geométrico No Homogéneo (IGBM y en ambos casos estudiados se analiza en 2 escenarios de precios, incluyendo análisis de sensibilidad. Respecto al primer caso, la adaptación a syngas de una planta NGCC es conveniente económicamente, teniendo el proyecto una alta sensibilidad respecto a la eficiencia. La sensibilidad a la inversión no es significativa, como tampoco a los gastos de operación. Respecto al segundo caso, la conveniencia económica de la planta IGCC frente a la planta PC no es clara en los escenarios de precios considerados. Pero analizada en diversas combinaciones de precios, la planta IGCC de operación flexible alternando dos combustibles puede lograr ventajas económicas. Respecto a la sensibilidad, se repiten las conclusiones mencionadas para el primer caso.The use of coal gasification technology in the generation of electric power is evaluated economically. Secondary information and valuation of real options approach is used, with two variables binomial lattices. First, the retrofit of an existing natural gas combined cycle plant (NGCC for the utilization of syngas from coal is analyzed; on the second case, an economical evaluation is realized for to compare a new Pulverized

  16. Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

    This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

  17. A Real Options Approach to Nuclear Waste Disposal in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederkvist, Jonas; Joensson, Kristian

    2004-04-01

    This report is concerned with an investigation of how the real options approach can be useful for managerial decisions regarding the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden. The problem of interest is the optimal time-schedule for phase-out activities, where the optimal time-schedule is defined in purely economical terms. The approach taken is actual construction and application of three real options models, which capture different aspects of managerial decisions. The first model concerns when investments in deep disposal facilities should optimally be made. Although the model is a rough simplification of reality, the result is clear. It is economically advantageous to postpone deep disposal forever. The second model focuses on how the uncertainty of future costs relates to managerial investment decisions. Construction of this model required some creativity, as the nuclear phase-out turns out to be quite a special project. The result from the second model is that there can be a value associated with deferral of investments due to the uncertainty of future costs, but the result is less clear-cut compared to the first model. In the third model, we extend an approach suggested by Louberge, Villeneuve and Chesney. The risk of a nuclear accident is introduced through this model and we develop its application to investigate the Swedish phase-out in particular, which implies that waste continuously disposed. In the third model, focus is shifted from investment timing to implementation timing. The results from the third model are merely qualitative, as it is considered beyond the scope of this work to quantitatively determine all relevant inputs. It is concluded that the phase-out of nuclear power generation in Sweden is not just another area of application for standard real options techniques. A main reason is that although there are a lot of uncertain issues regarding the phase-out, those uncertainties do not leave a lot of room for managerial flexibility if

  18. Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

  19. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A.

    2008-01-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  20. Elements of real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Sprecher, David A

    2010-01-01

    This classic text in introductory analysis delineates and explores the intermediate steps between the basics of calculus and the ultimate stage of mathematics: abstraction and generalization.Since many abstractions and generalizations originate with the real line, the author has made it the unifying theme of the text, constructing the real number system from the point of view of a Cauchy sequence (a step which Dr. Sprecher feels is essential to learn what the real number system is).The material covered in Elements of Real Analysis should be accessible to those who have completed a course in

  1. Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novotný Josef

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

  2. AEGIS and Ship Self-Defense System (SSDS) Platforms: Using KVA Analysis, Risk Simulation and Strategic Real Options to Assess Operational Effectiveness

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Uchytil, Joseph; Housel, Thomas; Hom, Sandra; Mun, Johnathan; Tarantino, Eric

    2006-01-01

    .... The results of the research demonstrated that the leave and layer approach for incrementally replacing AEGIS system modules was the most valuable strategic option, providing the highest return...

  3. Valuation of exploration and production assets. An overview of real options models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, Marco Antonio Guimaraes

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a set of selected real options models to evaluate investments in petroleum exploration and production (E and P) under market and technical uncertainties. First are presented some simple examples to develop the intuition about concepts like option value and optimal option exercise, comparing them with the concepts from the traditional net present value (NPV) criteria. Next, the classical model of Paddock, Siegel and Smith is presented, including a discussion on the practical values for the input parameters. The modeling of oil price uncertainty is presented by comparing some alternative stochastic processes. Other E and P applications discussed here are the selection of mutually exclusive alternatives under uncertainty, the wildcat drilling decision, the appraisal investment decisions, and the analysis of option to expand the production through optional wells

  4. Basic real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Sohrab, Houshang H

    2014-01-01

    This expanded second edition presents the fundamentals and touchstone results of real analysis in full rigor, but in a style that requires little prior familiarity with proofs or mathematical language. The text is a comprehensive and largely self-contained introduction to the theory of real-valued functions of a real variable. The chapters on Lebesgue measure and integral have been rewritten entirely and greatly improved. They now contain Lebesgue’s differentiation theorem as well as his versions of the Fundamental Theorem(s) of Calculus. With expanded chapters, additional problems, and an expansive solutions manual, Basic Real Analysis, Second Edition, is ideal for senior undergraduates and first-year graduate students, both as a classroom text and a self-study guide. Reviews of first edition: The book is a clear and well-structured introduction to real analysis aimed at senior undergraduate and beginning graduate students. The prerequisites are few, but a certain mathematical sophistication is required. ....

  5. Introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Michael J

    2008-01-01

    This text forms a bridge between courses in calculus and real analysis. It focuses on the construction of mathematical proofs as well as their final content. Suitable for upper-level undergraduates and graduate students of real analysis, it also provides a vital reference book for advanced courses in mathematics.The four-part treatment begins with an introduction to basic logical structures and techniques of proof, including discussions of the cardinality concept and the algebraic and order structures of the real and rational number systems. Part Two presents in-depth examinations of the compl

  6. Strategic Options Development and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Fran; Eden, Colin

    Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) enables a group or individual to construct a graphical representation of a problematic situation, and thus explore options and their ramifications with respect to a complex system of goals or objectives. In addition the method aims to help groups arrive at a negotiated agreement about how to act to resolve the situation. It is based upon the use of causal mapping - a formally constructed means-ends network - as representation form. Because the picture has been constructed using the natural language of the problem owners it becomes a model of the situation that is ‘owned' by those who define the problem. The use of formalities for the construction of the model makes it amenable to a range of analyses as well as encouraging reflection and a deeper understanding. These analyses can be used in a ‘rough and ready' manner by visual inspection or through the use of specialist causal mapping software (Decision Explorer). Each of the analyses helps a group or individual discover important features of the problem situation, and these features facilitate agreeing agood solution. The SODA process is aimed at helping a group learn about the situation they face before they reach agreements. Most significantly the exploration through the causal map leads to a higher probability of more creative solutions and promotes solutions that are more likely to be implemented because the problem construction process is wider and more likely to include richer social dimensions about the blockages to action and organizational change. The basic theories that inform SODA derive from cognitive psychology and social negotiation, where the model acts as a continuously changing representation of the problematic situation - changing as the views of a person or group shift through learning and exploration. This chapter, jointly written by two leading practitioner academics and the original developers of SODA, Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann

  7. Essential real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Field, Michael

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a rigorous introduction to the techniques and results of real analysis, metric spaces and multivariate differentiation, suitable for undergraduate courses. Starting from the very foundations of analysis, it offers a complete first course in real analysis, including topics rarely found in such detail in an undergraduate textbook such as the construction of non-analytic smooth functions, applications of the Euler-Maclaurin formula to estimates, and fractal geometry.  Drawing on the author’s extensive teaching and research experience, the exposition is guided by carefully chosen examples and counter-examples, with the emphasis placed on the key ideas underlying the theory. Much of the content is informed by its applicability: Fourier analysis is developed to the point where it can be rigorously applied to partial differential equations or computation, and the theory of metric spaces includes applications to ordinary differential equations and fractals. Essential Real Analysis will appeal t...

  8. Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Huan Ran

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

  9. Modern real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ziemer, William P

    2017-01-01

    This first year graduate text is a comprehensive resource in real analysis based on a modern treatment of measure and integration. Presented in a definitive and self-contained manner, it features a natural progression of concepts from simple to difficult. Several innovative topics are featured, including differentiation of measures, elements of Functional Analysis, the Riesz Representation Theorem, Schwartz distributions, the area formula, Sobolev functions and applications to harmonic functions. Together, the selection of topics forms a sound foundation in real analysis that is particularly suited to students going on to further study in partial differential equations. This second edition of Modern Real Analysis contains many substantial improvements, including the addition of problems for practicing techniques, and an entirely new section devoted to the relationship between Lebesgue and improper integrals. Aimed at graduate students with an understanding of advanced calculus, the text will also appeal to mo...

  10. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  11. Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

    The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation

  12. Real mathematical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pugh, Charles C

    2015-01-01

    Based on an honors course taught by the author at UC Berkeley, this introduction to undergraduate real analysis gives a different emphasis by stressing the importance of pictures and hard problems. Topics include: a natural construction of the real numbers, four-dimensional visualization, basic point-set topology, function spaces, multivariable calculus via differential forms (leading to a simple proof of the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem), and a pictorial treatment of Lebesgue theory. Over 150 detailed illustrations elucidate abstract concepts and salient points in proofs. The exposition is informal and relaxed, with many helpful asides, examples, some jokes, and occasional comments from mathematicians, such as Littlewood, Dieudonné, and Osserman. This book thus succeeds in being more comprehensive, more comprehensible, and more enjoyable, than standard introductions to analysis. New to the second edition of Real Mathematical Analysis is a presentation of Lebesgue integration done almost entirely using the un...

  13. Introductory real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kolmogorov, A N; Silverman, Richard A

    1975-01-01

    Self-contained and comprehensive, this elementary introduction to real and functional analysis is readily accessible to those with background in advanced calculus. It covers basic concepts and introductory principles in set theory, metric spaces, topological and linear spaces, linear functionals and linear operators, and much more. 350 problems. 1970 edition.

  14. A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-06-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Real analysis on intervals

    CERN Document Server

    Choudary, A D R

    2014-01-01

    The book targets undergraduate and postgraduate mathematics students and helps them develop a deep understanding of mathematical analysis. Designed as a first course in real analysis, it helps students learn how abstract mathematical analysis solves mathematical problems that relate to the real world. As well as providing a valuable source of inspiration for contemporary research in mathematics, the book helps students read, understand and construct mathematical proofs, develop their problem-solving abilities and comprehend the importance and frontiers of computer facilities and much more. It offers comprehensive material for both seminars and independent study for readers with a basic knowledge of calculus and linear algebra. The first nine chapters followed by the appendix on the Stieltjes integral are recommended for graduate students studying probability and statistics, while the first eight chapters followed by the appendix on dynamical systems will be of use to students of biology and environmental scie...

  16. Real options valuation and optimization of energy assets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Matthew

    In this thesis we present algorithms for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities, hydro-electric power plants and thermal power generators in competitive markets. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial-integro-differential equations (PIDEs) for the valuation and optimal operating strategies of all types of facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time-dependent, mean-reverting dynamics and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real energy assets. For natural gas storage facilities these characteristics include: working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates and cycling limitations. For thermal power plants relevant operational characteristics include variable start-up times and costs, control response time lags, minimum generating levels, nonlinear output functions, structural limitations on ramp rates, and minimum up/down time restrictions. For hydro-electric units, head effects and environmental constraints are addressed. We illustrate the models with numerical examples of a gas storage facility, a hydro-electric pump storage facility and a thermal power plant. This PIDE framework is the first in the literature to achieve second order accuracy in characterizing the operating states of hydro-electric and hydro-thermal power plants. The continuous state space representation derived in this thesis can therefore achieve far greater realism in terms of operating state specification than any other method in the literature to date. This thesis is also the first and only to allow for any continuous time jump diffusion processes in order to account for price spikes.

  17. Biomass Power Generation Investment in China: A Real Options Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingming Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a real options model for evaluating the biomass power generation investment in China. The uncertainties in the market price of electricity, CO2 price and straw price are considered. Meanwhile the dynamic relationship between installed capacity and fuel cost, as well as the long-term reduction of subsidy are described. Two scenarios, i.e., with the carbon emission trading scheme existent and non-existent, respectively, is built to empirically analyze the investment of a 25-MW straw-based power generation project. The results show that investors should undertake the investment in 2030 under two scenarios. Investment values are 14,869,254.8 and 37,608,727 Chinese Yuan (RMB, respectively. The implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme theoretically helps improve investment value and advance the most likely optimal investment time. However, the current CO2 price is not sufficient to advance the most likely optimal investment time. The impacts of several factors, including subsidy policy, CO2 price, straw price, installed capacity, correlation structure and the validity period of investment, on the optimal investment strategy are also examined. It is suggested that governments take some measures, including increasing subsidy, setting the growth pattern of subsidy and establishing and perfecting a nationwide carbon trading market, to improve the investment environment and attract more investments.

  18. Real Time Text Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senthilkumar, K.; Ruchika Mehra Vijayan, E.

    2017-11-01

    This paper aims to illustrate real time analysis of large scale data. For practical implementation we are performing sentiment analysis on live Twitter feeds for each individual tweet. To analyze sentiments we will train our data model on sentiWordNet, a polarity assigned wordNet sample by Princeton University. Our main objective will be to efficiency analyze large scale data on the fly using distributed computation. Apache Spark and Apache Hadoop eco system is used as distributed computation platform with Java as development language

  19. Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

    2017-06-01

    Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

  20. Renewable energy policy evaluation using real option model. The case of Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Shun-Chung; Shih, Li-Hsing

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a policy benefit evaluation model that integrates cost efficiency curve information on renewable power generation technologies into real options analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing renewable energy (RE) in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and RE policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for wind power. In addition to revealing the benefits that RE development provides when considering real options, analytical results indicate that ROA is a highly effective means of quantifying how policy planning uncertainty including managerial flexibility influences RE development. In addition to assessing the policy value of current RE development policy, this study also compares policy values in terms of internalized external costs and varying feed-in tariff (FIT). Simulation results demonstrate that the RE development policy with internalized CO 2 emission costs is appropriate policy planning from sustainability point of view. Furthermore, relationship between varying FIT and policy values can be shown quantitatively and appropriate FIT level could be determined accordingly. (author)

  1. Real time spectrum analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blunden, A.; O'Prey, D.G.; Tait, W.H.

    1983-01-01

    A method is described for the separation of a composite pulse-height spectrum into its unresolved component parts, which belong to a set of measured library spectra. The method allows real-time estimation giving running estimates during acquisition of the spectrum, minimises computation space, especially for a number of parallel calculations, estimates in advance the rms errors, and produces a significance measure for the hypothesis that the composite contains only the library spectra. Least squares curve-fitting, and other methods, can be compared, with the formalism developed, allowing analytical comparison of the effect of detector energy resolution and detection efficiency. A rational basis for the choice between the various methods of spectrum analysis follows from the theory, minimising rms estimation errors. The method described is applicable for very low numbers of counts and poor resolution. (orig.)

  2. Probabilistic analysis of modernization options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wunderlich, W.O.; Giles, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on benefit-cost analysis for hydropower operations, a standard procedure for reaching planning decisions. Cost overruns and benefit shortfalls are also common occurrences. One reason for the difficulty of predicting future benefits and costs is that they usually cannot be represented with sufficient reliability by accurate values, because of the many uncertainties that enter the analysis through assumptions on inputs and system parameters. Therefore, ranges of variables need to be analyzed instead of single values. As a consequence, the decision criteria, such as net benefit and benefit-cost ratio, also vary over some range. A probabilistic approach will be demonstrated as a tool for assessing the reliability of the results

  3. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

    2008-07-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  4. The research for flexible product family manufacturing based on real options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maozhu Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The goal of this paper is to find the best production strategy for product mix, which means the largest value of the options. And finally, give a case and find the solution of the optimal production strategy for product mix. Design/methodology/approach: This article, based on the production with characteristics of a call option and 0-1 integer programming model, build new-products mix strategy, and through case demonstrate that traditional method underestimates the value of the products mix. Finding: According to market being volatility and uncertainty and the production can being delayed, firms can flexibly arrange the best time for products to manufacture. Use real options theory to analyze product decision and the best production timing decision. Find the total options value is higher than the traditional methods. Research limitations/implications: We are not applied to real option pricing theory in modular flexible production system. We just applied real option pricing theory to the product platform. The basic model needs to improve. While the thinking of this paper provides some research ideas for flexible production systems based on real option in further research. Practical Implications: The introduction of the real option make the company can achieve dynamic planning and flexible management for production of products mix and get the better benefit. Originality/value: The central contribution of this paper is to introduce the option mechanism in the production timing for the product mix.

  5. A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Real options model for wind projects considering investment timing and sizing. • Introducing a capacity constraint in the optimisation. • Addressing several uncertainty factors while still providing analytical solution. • Comparative policy analysis of investment incentives from different support schemes. • Improved quantification of trade-off between fast deployment and large projects. - Abstract: A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment of smaller projects and slower deployment of larger projects is neglected using traditional net present value approaches. In the analysis of such trade-off, previous real options studies did not consider a capacity constraint, which is here shown to decrease the significance of the effect. The impact on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes.

  6. Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, J.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we extend the real option theory to consider the situation of a large producer and we employ the model to electricity markets. This is important because many producers in these markets affect the market supply and, therefore, also the electricity price. This production price effect influences not only on the assets that the energy company owns but also on its investment opportunities. We show that this production's price effect has to be considered in the investment analysis if the company is not able to hedge the price effect in the financial markets and if there is no competition on the investment opportunity. (author)

  7. Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tamidy

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility

  8. A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

  9. DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN NEW ZEALAND: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran, Van

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Real Options (RO has been a universally accepted concept in a number of major industries. However, its use in the construction supply chain management (CSCM sector has been limited. Some rare supply chain management RO studies have shown a number of limitations. First, there is a lack of a rigorous theoretical RO framework pertaining specifically to CSCM. All such supply chain management RO studies are based off RO theories or models developed for other sectors (engineering, infrastructure, natural resources. And second, attempts to extend real option to wider uses in CSCM seem premature at the present. This paper reviews all recent literature pertaining to real options and real options applied specifically to the construction supply chain management area. The study proposes a research programme pertaining to CSCM in New Zealand in order to enhance the current understanding of RO in this area and in the process develop a comprehensive theory for the RO application in New Zealand CSCM.

  10. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

    2015-01-01

    In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

  11. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

    Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

  12. A novel method to value real options in health care: the case of a multicohort human papillomavirus vaccination strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Baio, Gianluca; Capone, Alessandro; Marcellusi, Andrea; Saverio Mennini, Francesco

    2013-07-01

    years yielded a real option value (€17,723) equivalent to that attributed to a single cohort of 12-year-old girls (€17,460). The payoff method showed distinctive advantages in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions, essentially determined by the replacement of the nonfuzzy numbers that are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis models, with fuzzy numbers as an input to inform the real option pricing method. The real option approach to value uncertainty makes policy making in health care an evolutionary process and creates a new "space" for decision-making choices. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

  14. Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis M. Abadie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

  15. An introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, Derek G

    1973-01-01

    An Introduction to Real Analysis presents the concepts of real analysis and highlights the problems which necessitate the introduction of these concepts. Topics range from sets, relations, and functions to numbers, sequences, series, derivatives, and the Riemann integral. This volume begins with an introduction to some of the problems which are met in the use of numbers for measuring, and which provide motivation for the creation of real analysis. Attention then turns to real numbers that are built up from natural numbers, with emphasis on integers, rationals, and irrationals. The chapters tha

  16. Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2007-01-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD 3 ) programmes for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and non-renewable fuels. The benefits estimate for the programme derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD 3 programme in place. Three deficiencies of this approach are that it ignores: (1) uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE); (2) the possibility of adjustment to the RD 3 effort commensurate with the evolving state of the world; and (3) the underlying technical risk associated with RD 3 . In this paper, an intuitive approach to determining the option value of RE RD 3 is developed. This approach seeks to tackle the first two deficiencies noted above by providing an estimate via a compound real option of an RE RD 3 programme in a future with uncertain NRE costs. A binomial lattice reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process, while a numerical example illustrates the option components embedded in a simplified representation of current US Federal RE RD 3

  17. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  18. STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS:INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kevin ZHU; John WEYANT

    2003-01-01

    Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects of endogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We first develop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise and aggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typical full-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist across firms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering of exercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoff externalities. We also find some surprising but interesting results such as having more information is not necessarily better.

  19. Growing short rotation coppice on agricultural land in Germany: A Real Options Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musshoff, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    In many cases decision-makers apparently do not adapt as fast as expected to changing economic conditions. This is also the case for the conversion of farm land to short rotation coppice. From an economic point of view, short rotation coppice has become more interesting in the last few years. Nevertheless, farm land still is rarely used to grow this quite unknown crop. Several explanatory approaches (e.g., traditionalistic behavior and risk aversion) are currently discussed in order to explain this behavior. A relatively new explanatory approach is the Real Options Approach. The Real Options Approach uses a comprehensive dynamic-stochastic model that combines the uncertainty of investment returns, the sunk costs, and the temporal flexibility of the investment implementation. The quintessence of the Real Options Approach is that—compared to the Classical Investment Theory—the investment triggers will be shifted upwards if investments involve intertemporal opportunity costs. This paper develops a real options model which allows the determination of triggers on the basis of realistic assumptions. We examined when farmers, who only dispose of sandy soils with little water-storing capacity, should convert set-aside land to short rotation coppice. The results show that farmers should not convert until the present value of the investment returns exceeds the investment costs considerably. Thus, they confirm the empirically observed reluctance in conversion. Furthermore, it turned out that the magnitude of the difference between the Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach depends heavily on the type of stochastic process that underlies the investment returns. -- Highlights: ► Frequently observed reluctance of farmers to convert to short rotation coppice. ► Risk neutral farmers should convert if the investment multiple exceeds 1.57. ► The Real Options Approach is an explanatory approach for this observation. ► Results depend very much on the

  20. An Economic Evaluation on Replacement Plan for Aged Thermal Power Plants through a Real Option Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper presents a novel method to evaluate replacement plan for aged thermal power plants under uncertain circumstances through a real option approach. The most economical plan is selected among the three options: an option to operate an existing oil-fired thermal plant, an option to mothball it, and an option to abandon it and to construct an advanced gas combined cycle power plant (ACC) at the same time. Basic ideas of our model are: we use quadranomial approach in order to evaluate an option value consisted by two different uncertain assets; we consider cash flow with a dividend in order to reflect conditions of an aged oil-fired thermal plant and use the sequential compound option approach; we evaluate replacement time using quadranomial decision tree taking into account the options. We also analyze value and time of replacement using numerical examples. Our proposed method will be practically used for generation planning. For example it is possible to make priority quantitatively in replacements of aged thermal power plants by real option values. The target year of replacement may be set as a year when cumulative probability of replacement becomes over certain level.

  1. Elements of real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Al-Gwaiz, MA

    2006-01-01

    PREFACEPRELIMINARIES Sets FunctionsREAL NUMBERSField AxiomsOrder Axioms Natural Numbers, Integers, Rational NumbersCompleteness Axiom Decimal Representation of Real Numbers Countable SetsSEQUENCESSequences and ConvergenceProperties of Convergent Sequences Monotonic SequencesThe Cauchy Criterion Subsequences Upper and Lower Limits Open and Closed Sets INFINITE SERIESBasic Properties Convergence TestsLIMIT OF A FUNCTIONLimit of a Function Basic Theorems Some Extensions of the LimitMonotonic Functions CONTINUITY Continuous Functions Combinations of Continuous Functions Continuity on an IntervalUniformContinuityCompact Sets and ContinuityDIFFERENTIATION The DerivativeTheMean Value TheoremL'Hôpital's RuleTaylor's TheoremTHE RIEMANN INTEGRALRiemann Integrability Darboux's Theorem and Riemann SumsProperties of the Integral The Fundamental Theorem of Calculus Improper IntegralsSEQUENCES AND SERIES OF FUNCTIONSSequences of FunctionsProperties of Uniform ConvergenceSeries of FunctionsPower Series LEBESGUE MEASURE Clas...

  2. Hydrogen storage for wind parks: A real options evaluation for an optimal investment in more flexibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroniger, Daniel; Madlener, Reinhard

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Economic analysis of investing in H 2 storage for excess wind power production. • Use of real options analysis to account for uncertainty and managerial flexibility. • Hourly profits are simulated for profit-maximizing operation of the storage device. • Revenues by load factor increase, offering minute reserve, temporal arbitrage, H 2 sale. • Power-to-power is unprofitable under current techno-political conditions in Germany. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the economic viability of hydrogen storage for excess electricity produced in wind power plants. For the analysis, we define two scenarios (50 MW system with and without re-electrification unit) and apply Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis (ROA) to compute hourly profits under uncertainty regarding wind speed, spot market electricity prices, and call of minute reserve capacity. Hydrogen as a storage medium helps to either (1) increase capacity utilization of the wind park in case of grid disconnection; (2) to offer minute reserve; or (3) to exploit temporal price arbitrage at the electricity spot market; additionally, hydrogen can also be directly sold as a commodity. We find that power-to-power operation is highly uneconomical under current framework conditions in Germany, irrespective of potential energy efficiency gains. Interestingly, due to counterbalancing effects, offshore wind parks are found to have only a modest economic advantage compared to onshore ones. The power-to-fuel plant can be operated profitably (at hydrogen prices of more than 0.36 € m −3 and a 100% utilization of the electrolyzer) if hydrogen is directly marketed instead of used to store and re-generate electrical energy. The ROA recommends investment in a storage device without re-electrification unit beyond an expected project value that is about twice the investment cost of the storage device, a figure which is reduced markedly as conversion efficiency rises, assuming technical change

  3. Real and complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Apelian, Christopher; Taft, Earl; Nashed, Zuhair

    2009-01-01

    The Spaces R, Rk, and CThe Real Numbers RThe Real Spaces RkThe Complex Numbers CPoint-Set Topology Bounded SetsClassification of Points Open and Closed SetsNested Intervals and the Bolzano-Weierstrass Theorem Compactness and Connectedness Limits and Convergence Definitions and First Properties Convergence Results for SequencesTopological Results for Sequences Properties of Infinite SeriesManipulations of Series in RFunctions: Definitions and Limits DefinitionsFunctions as MappingsSome Elementary Complex FunctionsLimits of FunctionsFunctions: Continuity and Convergence Continuity Uniform Continuity Sequences and Series of FunctionsThe DerivativeThe Derivative for f: D1 → RThe Derivative for f: Dk → RThe Derivative for f: Dk → RpThe Derivative for f: D → CThe Inverse and Implicit Function TheoremsReal IntegrationThe Integral of f: [a, b] → RProperties of the Riemann Integral Further Development of Integration TheoryVector-Valued and Line IntegralsComplex IntegrationIntroduction to Complex Integrals Fu...

  4. Real analysis with economic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...

  5. A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumbaroglu, Guerkan; Madlener, Reinhard; Demirel, Mustafa

    2008-01-01

    This study presents a policy planning model that integrates learning curve information on renewable power generation technologies into a dynamic programming formulation featuring real options analysis. The model recursively evaluates a set of investment alternatives on a year-by-year basis, thereby taking into account that the flexibility to delay an irreversible investment expenditure can profoundly affect the diffusion prospects of renewable power generation technologies. Price uncertainty is introduced through stochastic processes for the average wholesale price of electricity and for input fuel prices. Demand for electricity is assumed to be increasingly price-sensitive, as the electricity market deregulation proceeds, reflecting new options of consumers to react to electricity price changes (such as time-of-use pricing, unbundled electricity services, and choice of supplier). The empirical analysis is based on data for the Turkish electricity supply industry. Apart from general implications for policy-making, it provides some interesting insights about the impact of uncertainty and technical change on the diffusion of various emerging renewable energy technologies

  6. From real to complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Dyer, R H

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this book is to provide an integrated course in real and complex analysis for those who have already taken a preliminary course in real analysis. It particularly emphasises the interplay between analysis and topology. Beginning with the theory of the Riemann integral (and its improper extension) on the real line, the fundamentals of metric spaces are then developed, with special attention being paid to connectedness, simple connectedness and various forms of homotopy. The final chapter develops the theory of complex analysis, in which emphasis is placed on the argument, the winding number, and a general (homology) version of Cauchy's theorem which is proved using the approach due to Dixon. Special features are the inclusion of proofs of Montel's theorem, the Riemann mapping theorem and the Jordan curve theorem that arise naturally from the earlier development. Extensive exercises are included in each of the chapters, detailed solutions of the majority of which are given at the end. From Real to...

  7. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  8. Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezhi Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1 investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2 the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3 logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

  9. The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon G. Sollars

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available he possibility of a first-mover advantage arises in a variety of strategic choices, including product introductions, business start-ups, and mergers and acquisitions. The strategic management literature reflects ambiguity regarding the likelihood that a first mover can or will capture additional value. This paper uses a real options approach to address the optimal timing of strategic moves. Previous studies have modeled real options using either a perpetual or a European financial option. With these models, a strategic choice could only be made either without respect to a time frame (perpetual or at a fixed point in time (European option. Neither case is realistic. Companies typically have strategic options with only a limited time frame due to market factors, but companies may choose to act at any time within that constraint. To reflect this reality, we adapt a method for valuing an American financial option on a dividend paying stock to the real options context. The method presented in this paper proposes a solution for the optimum value for a project that should trigger a strategic choice, and highlights the value lost by not acting optimally. We use simulation results to show that the time frame available to make a strategic choice has an important effect on both the project value for when action should be taken, as well as on the value of waiting to invest at the optimal time. The results presented in this paper help to clarify the ambiguity that is found in the strategic management literature regarding the possibility of obtaining a first-mover advantage. Indeed, a first mover that acts sub-optimally could incur losses or at least not gain any advantage. A first mover that waits to invest at the right time based on the superior information supplied by models based on real options could be better positioned to obtain the benefits that might come from the first move.

  10. Optimization of FRAP uncertainty analysis option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1979-10-01

    The automated uncertainty analysis option that has been incorporated in the FRAP codes (FRAP-T5 and FRAPCON-2) provides the user with a means of obtaining uncertainty bands on code predicted variables at user-selected times during a fuel pin analysis. These uncertainty bands are obtained by multiple single fuel pin analyses to generate data which can then be analyzed by second order statistical error propagation techniques. In this process, a considerable amount of data is generated and stored on tape. The user has certain choices to make regarding which independent variables are to be used in the analysis and what order of error propagation equation should be used in modeling the output response. To aid the user in these decisions, a computer program, ANALYZ, has been written and added to the uncertainty analysis option package. A variety of considerations involved in fitting response surface equations and certain pit-falls of which the user should be aware are discussed. An equation is derived expressing a residual as a function of a fitted model and an assumed true model. A variety of experimental design choices are discussed, including the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Finally, a description of the subcodes which constitute program ANALYZ is provided

  11. Strange functions in real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kharazishvili, AB

    2005-01-01

    Weierstrass and Blancmange nowhere differentiable functions, Lebesgue integrable functions with everywhere divergent Fourier series, and various nonintegrable Lebesgue measurable functions. While dubbed strange or "pathological," these functions are ubiquitous throughout mathematics and play an important role in analysis, not only as counterexamples of seemingly true and natural statements, but also to stimulate and inspire the further development of real analysis.Strange Functions in Real Analysis explores a number of important examples and constructions of pathological functions. After introducing the basic concepts, the author begins with Cantor and Peano-type functions, then moves to functions whose constructions require essentially noneffective methods. These include functions without the Baire property, functions associated with a Hamel basis of the real line, and Sierpinski-Zygmund functions that are discontinuous on each subset of the real line having the cardinality continuum. Finally, he considers e...

  12. Constructive real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Goldstein, Allen A

    1967-01-01

    This text introduces the methods of applied functional analysis and applied convexity. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate students of mathematics, science, and technology, it focuses on the solutions to two closely related problems. The first concerns finding roots of systems of equations and operative equations in a given region. The second involves extremal problems of minimizing or maximizing functions defined on subsets of finite and infinite dimensional spaces. Rather than citing practical algorithms for solving problems, this treatment provides the tools for studying problem-related algorithms.Topics include iterations and fixed points, metric spaces, nonlinear programming, polyhedral convex programming, and infinite convex programming. Additional subjects include linear spaces and convex sets and applications to integral equations. Students should be familiar with advanced calculus and linear algebra. As an introduction to elementary functional analysis motivated by application, this vol...

  13. Real Analysis A Historical Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Stahl, Saul

    2011-01-01

    A provocative look at the tools and history of real analysis This new edition of Real Analysis: A Historical Approach continues to serve as an interesting read for students of analysis. Combining historical coverage with a superb introductory treatment, this book helps readers easily make the transition from concrete to abstract ideas. The book begins with an exciting sampling of classic and famous problems first posed by some of the greatest mathematicians of all time. Archimedes, Fermat, Newton, and Euler are each summoned in turn, illuminating the utility of infinite, power, and trigonome

  14. Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

    2014-01-01

    The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

  15. The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

    2018-03-01

    The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

  16. When Do Firms Invest in Corporate Social Responsibility? : A Real Option Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cassimon, D.; Engelen, P.J.; Liedekerke, L.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the process for firms to decide whether or not to invest in corporate social responsibility is treated from a real option perspective. We extend the Husted (2005) framework with an important extra parameter that allows us to understand the timing of CSR investment and explain why some

  17. Understanding the advantages of open innovation practices in corporate venturing in terms of real options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Vrande, van de V.J.A.; Chesbrough, H.

    2008-01-01

    Part of the advantages of using open innovation (compared to closed innovation) in corporate venturing can be explained by applying the real options approach. Open innovation in risk-laden activities such as corporate venturing has the following advantages: (i) benefits from early involvement in new

  18. Real Options in an Aymmetric Duopoly : Who Benefits from your Competitive Disadvantage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of investment cost asymmetry on the value and optimal real option exercise strategies of firms under imperfect competition.Both firms have an opportunity to invest in a project enhancing (ceteris paribus) the profit now.We show that three types of equilibria exist and

  19. The impact of delaying an investment decision on R&D projects in real option game

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Shuhua; Li, Yue; Gao, Fanglu

    2016-01-01

    In a research and development (R&D) investment, the cost and the project value of such an investment are usually uncertain, which thus increases its complexity. Correspondingly, the NPV (Net Present Value) rule fails to evaluate the value of this project exactly, because this method does not take into account the market uncertainty, irreversibility of investment and ability of delay entry. In this paper, we employ the real option theory to evaluate the project value of a R&D investment. Since the cost of a R&D investment is very high and the flow of the information is crowded, an investor cannot make an immediate decision every time. So, the proposed real option model is an exchange option. At the same time, combining the real option and the game theory, we can find the Nash equilibrium which is the optimal strategy. Moreover, we also study how the delayed time influences the price of the project investment and how the different delayed times effect the choice of the optimal strategies.

  20. Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

  1. Elementary real and complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Shilov, Georgi E

    1996-01-01

    In this book the renowned Russian mathematician Georgi E. Shilov brings his unique perspective to real and complex analysis, an area of perennial interest in mathematics. Although there are many books available on the topic, the present work is specially designed for undergraduates in mathematics, science and engineering. A high level of mathematical sophistication is not required.The book begins with a systematic study of real numbers, understood to be a set of objects satisfying certain definite axioms. The concepts of a mathematical structure and an isomorphism are introduced in Chapter 2,

  2. Real time analysis under EDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneberk, D.

    1985-07-01

    This paper describes the analysis component of the Enrichment Diagnostic System (EDS) developed for the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation Program (AVLIS) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Four different types of analysis are performed on data acquired through EDS: (1) absorption spectroscopy on laser-generated spectral lines, (2) mass spectrometer analysis, (3) general purpose waveform analysis, and (4) separation performance calculations. The information produced from this data includes: measures of particle density and velocity, partial pressures of residual gases, and overall measures of isotope enrichment. The analysis component supports a variety of real-time modeling tasks, a means for broadcasting data to other nodes, and a great degree of flexibility for tailoring computations to the exact needs of the process. A particular data base structure and program flow is common to all types of analysis. Key elements of the analysis component are: (1) a fast access data base which can configure all types of analysis, (2) a selected set of analysis routines, (3) a general purpose data manipulation and graphics package for the results of real time analysis. Each of these components are described with an emphasis upon how each contributes to overall system capability. 3 figs

  3. A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine developme...

  4. In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2011-01-01

    This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

  5. A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muche, Thomas

    2009-01-01

    Investments in pump storage plants are expected to grow especially due to their ability to store an excess of supply from wind power plants. In order to evaluate these investments correctly the peculiarities of pump storage plants and the characteristics of liberalized power markets have to be considered. The main characteristics of power markets are the strong power price volatility and the occurrence of prices spikes. In this article a valuation model is developed capturing these aspects using power price simulation, optimization of unit commitment and capital market theory. This valuation model is able to value a future price-based unit commitment planning that corresponds to future scope of actions also called real options. The resulting real option value for the pump storage plant is compared with the traditional net present value approach. Because this approach is not able to evaluate scope of actions correctly it results in strongly smaller investment values and forces wrong investment decisions.

  6. An entry and exit model on the energy-saving investment strategy with real options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, S.-L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an improved decision model based on the real options approach presented by for the firms that have not yet established energy-saving equipment under the entry and exit strategies. Furthermore, the proposed model takes account of the inevitable equipment renewal and the occurrence of unexpected events under the Poisson jump process. The timing for terminating an investment when continuous operations of that business are unprofitable is also explored to realize the optimal timing of implementing the energy-saving strategy. The future discounted benefit B follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. A numerical analysis is followed by a sensitivity study of various parameters to better realize their impacts on the entry and exit thresholds. The results show that for the jump case, the higher probability of occurrence of unfavorable events will result in a higher entry threshold and lower exit threshold. Investors are forced to request higher benefit thresholds to cover the higher probability of losses brought by unfavorable events.

  7. Multidimensional real analysis I differentiation

    CERN Document Server

    Duistermaat, J J; van Braam Houckgeest, J P

    2004-01-01

    Part one of the authors' comprehensive and innovative work on multidimensional real analysis. This book is based on extensive teaching experience at Utrecht University and gives a thorough account of differential analysis in multidimensional Euclidean space. It is an ideal preparation for students who wish to go on to more advanced study. The notation is carefully organized and all proofs are clean, complete and rigorous. The authors have taken care to pay proper attention to all aspects of the theory. In many respects this book presents an original treatment of the subject and it contains man

  8. The importance of Real Options Theory in the analysis of investment: what is the added value to a GTL (Gas to Liquid) plant considering managerial flexibility; Qual o valor agregado a uma planta 'Gas to Liquid' considerando-se a flexibilidade gerencial: a importancia da teoria das opcoes reais na analise de investimentos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francisco, Marcela Lobo [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The goal of this article is to do an investment analysis applying Real Options Theory in the plant Gas to Liquid (GTL). This analysis is the most indicated, because there are several flexibilities in this plant, related to the inputs (many products can be applied) as well the outputs (there are many possible combinations to use). In order to make the analysis as close as possible of reality and the most accurate it became fundamental to calculate the value that those flexibilities add to final value of the plant. It is going to be calculated the value of switch use of inputs (possibility to each semester to choose different resources) and the value of switch use of outputs (the possibility of the plant to produce more than one combination of outputs). Although in order to be feasible the implementation of the real option of switch use it is necessary to know if the added value is bigger or lesser from the cost of implementation. In the research it is achieve the conclusion that the value of switch use of inputs is lower than the cost of its implementation. (author)

  9. A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyounkyu; Park, Taeil; Kim, Byungil; Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2013-01-01

    The clean development mechanism (CDM) provides a way of assisting sustainable development in developing countries for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite its intended benefits, the primary CDM market decreased from US$5.8 billion in 2006 to US$1.5 billion in 2010. One of the primary reasons for the reduction of market size is that developed countries as investors have a high level of risks caused by the volatility of the market price for certified emission reductions (CERs). Another issue to be resolved is that developing countries as host countries cannot claim any right to the CERs produced on their own land. This paper presents a real option-based model for both parties (developed and developing countries) to have their fair share of profits and risks by controlling the uncertainty associated with the future value of CERs. A case study illustrated that the proposed model can effectively attract investors to CDM projects leading to mitigation of climate change. - Highlights: ► This study focused on the risks associated with the uncertainty of future CER value in CDM projects. ► A real option-based model was developed for both parties in CDM to have fair share of profit and risk. ► Key variables and boundary conditions were identified for application of real option to CDM. ► The model allowed both parties to own options, which have an identical value. ► Hydropower plant projects in Indonesia were used to illustrate the implementation of the model

  10. Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We calculate the real option value of flexibility from CHP-thermal storage. • Stochastic optimal feedback control problem is solved under uncertain market prices. • Efficient real-time numerical solutions combine simulation, regression and recursion. • Clear, interpretable feedback control maps are produced for each hour of the day. • We give a realistic UK case study using projected market gas and electricity prices. - Abstract: In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler. In this outlook, the aim of this paper is to propose a model for optimal and dynamic control and long term valuation of CHP-thermal storage in the presence of uncertain market prices. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic control problem and numerically solved through Least Squares Monte Carlo regression analysis, with integrated investment and operational timescale analysis equivalent to real options valuation models encountered in finance. Outputs are represented by clear and interpretable feedback control strategy maps for each hour of the day, thus suitable for real time demand response under uncertainty. Numerical applications to a realistic UK case study with projected market gas and electricity prices exemplify the proposed approach and quantify the robustness of the selected storage solutions

  11. The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

  12. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  13. Introduction to Real Analysis An Educational Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bauldry, William C

    2011-01-01

    An accessible introduction to real analysis and its connection to elementary calculus Bridging the gap between the development and history of real analysis, Introduction to Real Analysis: An Educational Approach presents a comprehensive introduction to real analysis while also offering a survey of the field. With its balance of historical background, key calculus methods, and hands-on applications, this book provides readers with a solid foundation and fundamental understanding of real analysis. The book begins with an outline of basic calculus, including a close examination of problems illust

  14. Real Options Valuation of U.S. Federal Renewable Energy Research,Development, Demonstration, and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2005-03-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government funded research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) programs for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and nonrenewable fuels. The benefits estimate for a program derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD3 in place. The deficiencies of the current approach are threefold: (1) it does not consider uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE), and the option or insurance value of deploying RE if and when NRE costs rise; (2) it does not consider the ability of the RD3 manager to adjust the RD3 effort to suit the evolving state of the world, and the option value of this flexibility; and (3) it does not consider the underlying technical risk associated with RD3, and the impact of that risk on the programs optimal level of RD3 effort. In this paper, a rudimentary approach to determining the option value of publicly funded RE RD3 is developed. The approach seeks to tackle the first deficiency noted above by providing an estimate of the options benefit of an RE RD3 program in a future with uncertain NRE costs.While limited by severe assumptions, a computable lattice of options values reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process. An illustrative example indicates how options expose both the insurance and timing values inherent in a simplified RE RD3 program that coarsely approximates the aggregation of current Federal RE RD3.This paper also discusses the severe limitations of this initial approach, and identifies needed model improvements before the approach can adequately respond to the RE RD3 analysis challenge.

  15. Multifractal analysis of implied volatility in index options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, GabJin

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we analyze the statistical and the non-linear properties of the log-variations in implied volatility for the CAC40, DAX and S& P500 daily index options. The price of an index option is generally represented by its implied volatility surface, including its smile and skew properties. We utilize a Lévy process model as the underlying asset to deepen our understanding of the intrinsic property of the implied volatility in the index options and estimate the implied volatility surface. We find that the options pricing models with the exponential Lévy model can reproduce the smile or sneer features of the implied volatility that are observed in real options markets. We study the variation in the implied volatility for at-the-money index call and put options, and we find that the distribution function follows a power-law distribution with an exponent of 3.5 ≤ γ ≤ 4.5. Especially, the variation in the implied volatility exhibits multifractal spectral characteristics, and the global financial crisis has influenced the complexity of the option markets.

  16. Reducing uncertainty in load forecasts and using real options for improving capacity dispatch management through the utilization of weather and hydrologic forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, T.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of weather on electricity markets was discussed with particular focus on reducing weather uncertainty by improving short term weather forecasts. The implications of weather for hydroelectric power dispatch and use were also discussed. Although some errors in weather forecasting can result in economic benefits, most errors are associated with more costs than benefits. This presentation described how a real options analysis can make weather a favorable option. Four case studies were presented for exploratory data analysis of regional weather phenomena. These included: (1) the 2001 California electricity crisis, (2) the delta breeze effects on the California ISO, (3) the summer 2002 weather forecast error for ISO New England, and (4) the hydro plant asset valuation using weather uncertainty. It was concluded that there is a need for more economic methodological studies on the effect of weather on energy markets and costs. It was suggested that the real options theory should be applied to weather planning and utility applications. tabs., figs

  17. Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

  18. Activation analysis for ITER design options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attaya, H.

    1995-09-01

    This paper presents a summary of the activation analyses that have been performed for the shielding blanket (SS/water) and for the breeding blanket (Li/V) of ITER design options. The activation code RACC-P, which has been modified for pulsed operation, has been used in these calculations. The spatial distributions of the radioactive inventory, decay heat, biological hazard potential, and the contact dose were calculated for the two designs for different operation modes and targeted fluences. A one-dimensional toroidal cylindrical geometrical model has been utilized to determine the neutron fluxes in the two designs. The results are normalized for an inboard and outboard neutron wall loadings of 0.91 and 1.2 MW/m 2 respectively

  19. Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

  20. Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boomsma, Trine Krogh; Meade, Nigel; Fleten, Stein-Erik

    2012-01-01

    -in tariff encourages earlier investment. Nevertheless, as investment has been undertaken, renewable energy certificate trading creates incentives for larger projects. In our baseline scenario and taking the fixed feed-in tariff as a base, the revenue required to trigger investments is 61% higher......This paper adopts a real options approach to analyze investment timing and capacity choice for renewable energy projects under different support schemes. The main purpose is to examine investment behavior under the most extensively employed support schemes, namely, feed-in tariffs and renewable...... energy certificate trading. We consider both multiple sources of uncertainty under each support scheme and uncertainty with respect to any change of support scheme, and we obtain both analytical (when possible) and numerical solutions. In a Nordic case study based on wind power, we find that the feed...

  1. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  2. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  3. Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

    2014-03-01

    This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

  4. Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

    2012-02-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

  5. Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

    My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

  6. NANA Strategic Energy Plan & Energy Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jay Hermanson; Brian Yanity

    2008-12-31

    Biomass Feasibility analysis in the upper Kobuk; • Run of the river hydroelectric development for the Upper Kobuk; • Solar photovoltaic (PV) power demonstration projects for Noatak, Ambler, Selawik, Kiana, and Noorvik; • Heat Recovery for several communities; In September 2008, the NRC team participated at the Alaska Rural Energy Conference in Girdwood, Alaska In November 2008, the NRC team gave a presentation on the NANA regional energy plans at a DOE Tribal Energy Program conference in Denver, Colorado. In January 2009, the final SEP report was submitted to NRC.

  7. Used fuel rail shock and vibration testing options analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Best, Ralph E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Klymyshyn, Nicholas A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jensen, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Maheras, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-09-25

    The objective of the rail shock and vibration tests is to complete the framework needed to quantify loads of fuel assembly components that are necessary to guide materials research and establish a technical basis for review organizations such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A significant body of experimental and numerical modeling data exists to quantify loads and failure limits applicable to normal conditions of transport (NCT) rail transport, but the data are based on assumptions that can only be verified through experimental testing. The test options presented in this report represent possible paths for acquiring the data that are needed to confirm the assumptions of previous work, validate modeling methods that will be needed for evaluating transported fuel on a case-by-case basis, and inform material test campaigns on the anticipated range of fuel loading. The ultimate goal of this testing is to close all of the existing knowledge gaps related to the loading of used fuel under NCT conditions and inform the experiments and analysis program on specific endpoints for their research. The options include tests that would use an actual railcar, surrogate assemblies, and real or simulated rail transportation casks. The railcar carrying the cradle, cask, and surrogate fuel assembly payload would be moved in a train operating over rail track modified or selected to impart shock and vibration forces that occur during normal rail transportation. Computer modeling would be used to help design surrogates that may be needed for a rail cask, a cask’s internal basket, and a transport cradle. The objective of the design of surrogate components would be to provide a test platform that effectively simulates responses to rail shock and vibration loads that would be exhibited by state-of-the-art rail cask, basket, and/or cradle structures. The computer models would also be used to help determine the placement of instrumentation (accelerometers and strain gauges

  8. Real analysis modern techniques and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Folland, Gerald B

    1999-01-01

    An in-depth look at real analysis and its applications-now expanded and revised.This new edition of the widely used analysis book continues to cover real analysis in greater detail and at a more advanced level than most books on the subject. Encompassing several subjects that underlie much of modern analysis, the book focuses on measure and integration theory, point set topology, and the basics of functional analysis. It illustrates the use of the general theories and introduces readers to other branches of analysis such as Fourier analysis, distribution theory, and probability theory.This edi

  9. Evaluation of dairy effluent management options using multiple criteria analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajkowicz, Stefan A; Wheeler, Sarah A

    2008-04-01

    This article describes how options for managing dairy effluent on the Lower Murray River in South Australia were evaluated using multiple criteria analysis (MCA). Multiple criteria analysis is a framework for combining multiple environmental, social, and economic objectives in policy decisions. At the time of the study, dairy irrigation in the region was based on flood irrigation which involved returning effluent to the river. The returned water contained nutrients, salts, and microbial contaminants leading to environmental, human health, and tourism impacts. In this study MCA was used to evaluate 11 options against 6 criteria for managing dairy effluent problems. Of the 11 options, the MCA model selected partial rehabilitation of dairy paddocks with the conversion of remaining land to other agriculture. Soon after, the South Australian Government adopted this course of action and is now providing incentives for dairy farmers in the region to upgrade irrigation infrastructure and/or enter alternative industries.

  10. Use of real options in nuclear power plant valuation in the presence of uncertainty with CO2 emission credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiriyama, Eriko; Suzuki, Atsuyuki

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the value of an investment in power generation assets that do not emit CO 2 , by using a real option model. This study evaluates the effects of future uncertainty on investment decision-making, by focusing on the uncertainty of CO 2 emission credits [yen/t-CO 2 ] in the fairly near future in Japan. Electric utilities are required to keep plans to prepare for various future uncertainties such as the price of CO 2 emission credits. The real option approach can evaluate the option value of decision-making under uncertainty. This study examined the option value of a power plant [yen/KW] to evaluate the effects of an externality under uncertainty. The results showed that nuclear power would have the most value under the forthcoming CO 2 emission limitations. In order to secure the effectiveness of measures against global warming, we should reconsider the roles of nuclear power plants in Japan. Finally, the real option model is shown to be an effective candidate for a decision-making support tool to deal with problems in energy environmental policy. (author)

  11. Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yepes Rodriguez, Ramon

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a real option model for the valuation of destination flexibility in long-term LNG supplies. Stochastic price dynamics in the different markets is modelled through geometric Brownian motion processes. Mean reversion is considered as well as correlation between markets, but instead of the usual correlation in return shocks, a price convergence term is introduced representing the arbitrage streams between markets. Model parameters are estimated from market data on LNG prices by maximum log-likelihood. The goodness of the fit for the proposed model is tested as well as for two alternative models. Confidence intervals for the parameters are given. Results for the model are calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Frequency distributions for the main results are plotted. The effect of the main parameters of the model is studied (i.e. price volatilities, price convergence, initial prices in the markets, mean reversion, extra transportation costs, number of alternative markets). The value of destination flexibility is found to be an important share of the value of LNG

  12. Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes; Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a valuation study of operational flexibility in the complex Brazilian Power System. Thermopower plants represent operational flexibility for the national system operator provided they can be dispatched in dry periods to supply part of the load when reservoir waters are too low. Deficit costs can be avoided as a result. We have adopted a real options approach to calculate the fair value of a financial subsidy to be paid to thermal generators for their availability to the system. A financial subsidy is mandatory for their economic feasibility and, therefore, for increased thermopower capacity in the Brazilian Power System. This is why this policy is currently being studied by Brazil's federal government. In order to illustrate our modeling we have run the model for the southeast subsystem. We found a flexibility value of US$4.52 billion, which represents US$497/MW per year. This means that a 100 MW thermopower plant should receive US$49,700 for each year of its economic lifetime as a fair premium incentive to investments

  13. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

    2012-07-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  14. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.; Solana, P.

    2012-01-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  15. Set theoretical aspects of real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kharazishvili, Alexander B

    2014-01-01

    This book addresses a number of questions in real analysis and classical measure theory that are of a set-theoretic flavor. Accessible to graduate students, the beginning of the book presents introductory topics on real analysis and Lebesque measure theory. These topics highlight the boundary between fundamental concepts of measurability and non-measurability for point sets and functions. The remainder of the book deals with more specialized material on set-theoretical real analysis. Problems are included at the end of each chapter.

  16. An Analysis of the Real Estate Occupation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harestad, Clifford E.; And Others

    The general purpose of the occupational analysis is to provide workable, basic information dealing with the many and varied duties performed in the real estate occupation. It represents an accounting of what must be done, but not how the entire cycle of a residential sale is completed through the services of a real estate person and the…

  17. What makes and what does not make a real option? A study of equity shares in international joint ventures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuypers, I.R.P.; Martin, Xavier

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the boundaries of real options logic, with an application to joint ventures (JVs). We distinguish between forms of uncertainty that are resolved endogenously and those that are resolved exogenously, and theorize that only exogenous uncertainty will have the impact predicted by

  18. The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...

  19.  Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    ) to exercise real options such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch suppliers, and to generally expand in the Euro-area. The results are robust after controlling for the size of the firms and their sales in the Euro-area. The results go beyond what...

  20. Uranium Resource Availability Analysis of Four Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youn, S. R.; Lee, S. H.; Jeong, M. S.; Kim, S. K.; Ko, W. I.

    2013-01-01

    Making the national policy regarding nuclear fuel cycle option, the policy should be established in ways that nuclear power generation can be maintained through the evaluation on the basis of the following aspects. To establish the national policy regarding nuclear fuel cycle option, that must begin with identification of a fuel cycle option that can be best suited for the country, and the evaluation work for that should be proceeded. Like all the policy decision, however, a certain nuclear fuel cycle option cannot be superior in all aspects of sustain ability, environment-friendliness, proliferation-resistance, economics, technologies, which make the comparison of the fuel cycle options very complicated. For such a purpose, this paper set up four different fuel cycle of nuclear power generation considering 2nd Comprehensive Nuclear Energy Promotion Plan(CNEPP), and analyzed material flow and features in steady state of all four of the fuel cycle options. As a result of an analysis on material flow of each nuclear fuel cycle, it was analyzed that Pyro-SFR recycling is most effective on U resource availability among four fuel cycle option. As shown in Figure 3, OT cycle required the most amount of U and Pyro-SFR recycle consumed the least amount of U. DUPIC recycling, PWR-MOX recycling, and Pyro-SFR recycling fuel cycle appeared to consumed 8.2%, 12.4%, 39.6% decreased amount of uranium respectively compared to OT cycle. Considering spent fuel can be recycled as potential energy resources, U and TRU taken up to be 96% is efficiently used. That is, application period of limited uranium natural resources can be extended, and it brings a great influence on stable use of nuclear energy

  1. An Application of the Real Options Method to the Valuation of a License to Operate 3G Mobile Phone Service in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Stille

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the contributions of the real option method to the decision making process in the telecommunications industry. We study the case of a public auction purchase of the license to operate a 3G mobile phone system in Brazil. The results indicate that the embedded flexibilities increase the value of the project by 64% in relative to the discounted cash flow method, which could justify the high premiums paid by the winning firms, which are incompatible with the value obtained from traditional methods of analysis. This suggests that the real options approach used, which can be easily replicated and is fairly intuitive, can be a useful tool to support the decision making process of these firms.

  2. Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

    KAUST Repository

    Häppölä, Juho

    2016-01-06

    We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). Applying a Fourier transformation to the PIDE yields an ordinary differential equation that can be solved analytically in terms of the characteristic exponent of the Levy process. Then, a numerical inverse Fourier transform allows us to obtain the option price. We present a novel bound for the error and use this bound to set the parameters for the numerical method. We analyze the properties of the bound for a dissipative and pure-jump example. The bound presented is independent of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset prices. The error bound can be decomposed into a product of terms resulting from the dynamics and the option payoff, respectively. The analysis is supplemented by numerical examples that demonstrate results comparable to and superior to the existing literature.

  3. Analysis of federal options to support photovoltaic industry growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennington, G.; Cherdak, A.; Williams, F.

    1979-05-01

    This report presents the methodology and results of an analysis to determine the impact and leverage of federal options for supporting the growth of the photovoltaic industry. Results were projected for combinations of the following: an aggressive federal research and development program, achievement of a technological breakthrough, and immediate or breakthrough-dependent incentives including direct price reductions, keyed-to-breakeven subsidies, and federal puchases. The modeling methodology and market assumptions were also tested to determine their effect on analysis results.

  4. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO 2 emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO 2 -intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  5. What is the best way to enter Florida's real estate market in today's economy? : This may serve as a simple guide which offers options for a startup real estate company to enter any real estate market

    OpenAIRE

    Bryan, Paul

    2011-01-01

    P&I International real estate (PIIRE for short) is a real estate company which left the Florida real estate market in 2006. PIIRE is now seeking the best method to re-enter the Florida’s real estate market within the near future. The owners are seeking the best method to re-establish their real estate business in Florida. At this point the location in Florida has not yet been determined. The determining factors include financing options, business type entry mode, and governmental issues. ...

  6. ACCOUNTING FOR OPTIONS AND ANALYSIS OF USE OF OPTION COMBINATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Derun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with problems of accounting for options in Ukraine, namely: value expression of initial cost of options, their revaluation, accounting of premiums, financial assets and financial liabilities and variation margin. The paper offers ways of solution of these problems which based on harmonization with IAS 32, IAS 39, IFRS 7 and IFRS 9. The study considers option combination strategies (straddle, strangle, strap, strip and approaches of identification of possible financial results for investors which use these strategies. Examples of possible financial results are provided for buyers and sellers of options which use option combination strategies.

  7. Real analysis a constructive approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bridger, Mark

    2012-01-01

    A unique approach to analysis that lets you apply mathematics across a range of subjects This innovative text sets forth a thoroughly rigorous modern account of the theoretical underpinnings of calculus: continuity, differentiability, and convergence. Using a constructive approach, every proof of every result is direct and ultimately computationally verifiable. In particular, existence is never established by showing that the assumption of non-existence leads to a contradiction. The ultimate consequence of this method is that it makes sense-not just to math majors but also to students from a

  8. “Let’s Wait and See!” The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  9. “Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  10. Net energy analysis - powerful tool for selecting elective power options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, S. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

    1995-12-01

    A number of net energy analysis studies have been conducted in recent years for electric power production from coal, oil and uranium fuels; synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale; and heat and electric power from solar energy. This technique is an excellent indicator of investment costs, environmental impact and potential economic competitiveness of alternative electric power systems for energy planners from the Eastern European countries considering future options. Energy conservation is also important to energy planners and the net energy analysis technique is an excellent accounting system on the extent of energy resource conservation. The author proposes to discuss the technique and to present the results of his studies and others in the field. The information supplied to the attendees will serve as a powerful tool to the energy planners considering their electric power options in the future.

  11. A real-life example of choosing an inherently safer process option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Study, Karen

    2007-01-01

    While choosing an inherently safer alternative may seem straightforward, sometimes what seems to be the most obvious alternative may not provide the best risk reduction. The process designer must maintain a broad perspective to be able to recognize all potential hazards when evaluating design options. All aspects of operation such as start-up, shut-down, utility failure, as well as normal operation should be considered. Choosing the inherently safer option is best accomplished early in the option selection phase of a project; however, recycle back to the option selection phase may be needed if an option is not thoroughly evaluated early in the process. In this paper, a project to supply ammonia to a catalytic reactor will be reviewed. During the course of the project, an 'inherently safer' alternative was selected and later discarded due to issues uncovered during the detail design phase. The final option chosen will be compared to (1) the original design and (2) the initial 'inherently safer' alternative. The final option was inherently safer than both the original design and the initial 'inherently safer' alternative even though the design team initially believed that it would not be

  12. Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

    2007-05-15

    This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

  13. EFFECT OF REVENUE INSURANCE ON ENTRY AND EXIT DECISIONS IN TABLE GRAPE PRODUCTION: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, Sangtaek; Salin, Victoria; Mitchell, Paul D.; Leatham, David J.

    2004-01-01

    This study determines the entry and exit thresholds of table grape farming with irreversible investment under uncertainty. Real option approach is adopted to consider the investment and management flexibility. Also revenue insurance is introduced to consider the effect of the risk management programs on the entry and exit thresholds. Results show that revenue insurance increases the entry and exit thresholds by 1% and 4%, respectively, thus discouraging new investment and current farming, as ...

  14. Failure analysis of real-time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalashgar, A.; Stoelen, K.

    1998-01-01

    This paper highlights essential aspects of real-time software systems that are strongly related to the failures and their course of propagation. The significant influence of means-oriented and goal-oriented system views in the description, understanding and analysing of those aspects is elaborated. The importance of performing failure analysis prior to reliability analysis of real-time systems is equally addressed. Problems of software reliability growth models taking the properties of such systems into account are discussed. Finally, the paper presents a preliminary study of a goal-oriented approach to model the static and dynamic characteristics of real-time systems, so that the corresponding analysis can be based on a more descriptive and informative picture of failures, their effects and the possibility of their occurrence. (author)

  15. 1992 Columbia River salmon flow measures Options Analysis/EIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This Options Analysis/Environmental Impact Statement (OA/EIS) identifies, presents effects of, and evaluates the potential options for changing instream flow levels in efforts to increase salmon populations in the lower Columbia and Snake rivers. The potential actions would be implemented during 1992 to benefit juvenile and adult salmon during migration through eight run-of-river reservoirs. The Corps of Engineers (Corps) prepared this document in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FSWS) is a participating agency. The text and appendices of the document describe the characteristics of 10 Federal projects and one private water development project in the Columbia River drainage basin. Present and potential operation of these projects and their effects on the salmon that spawn and rear in the Columbia and Snake River System are presented. The life history, status, and response of Pacific salmon to current environmental conditions are described

  16. 1992 Columbia River Salmon Flow Measures Options Analysis/EIS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-01-01

    This Options Analysis/Environmental Impact Statement (OA/EIS) identifies, presents effects of, and evaluates the potential options for changing instream flow levels in efforts to increase salmon populations in the lower Columbia and Snake rivers. The potential actions would be implemented during 1992 to benefit juvenile and adult salmon during migration through eight run-of-river reservoirs. The Corps of Engineers (Corps) prepared this document in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FSWS) is a participating agency. The text and appendices of the document describe the characteristics of 10 Federal projects and one private water development project in the Columbia River drainage basin. Present and potential operation of these projects and their effects on the salmon that spawn and rear in the Columbia and Snake River System are presented. The life history, status, and response of Pacific salmon to current environmental conditions are described.

  17. An analysis of international nuclear fuel supply options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, J'tia Patrice

    As the global demand for energy grows, many nations are considering developing or increasing nuclear capacity as a viable, long-term power source. To assess the possible expansion of nuclear power and the intricate relationships---which cover the range of economics, security, and material supply and demand---between established and aspirant nuclear generating entities requires models and system analysis tools that integrate all aspects of the nuclear enterprise. Computational tools and methods now exist across diverse research areas, such as operations research and nuclear engineering, to develop such a tool. This dissertation aims to develop methodologies and employ and expand on existing sources to develop a multipurpose tool to analyze international nuclear fuel supply options. The dissertation is comprised of two distinct components: the development of the Material, Economics, and Proliferation Assessment Tool (MEPAT), and analysis of fuel cycle scenarios using the tool. Development of MEPAT is aimed for unrestricted distribution and therefore uses publicly available and open-source codes in its development when possible. MEPAT is built using the Powersim Studio platform that is widely used in systems analysis. MEPAT development is divided into three modules focusing on: material movement; nonproliferation; and economics. The material movement module tracks material quantity in each process of the fuel cycle and in each nuclear program with respect to ownership, location and composition. The material movement module builds on techniques employed by fuel cycle models such as the Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) code developed at the Idaho National Laboratory under the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) for the analysis of domestic fuel cycle. Material movement parameters such as lending and reactor preference, as well as fuel cycle parameters such as process times and material factors are user-specified through a Microsoft Excel(c) data spreadsheet

  18. A Real Options Approach to Bankruptcy Costs: Evidence from Failed Commercial Banks During the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph R. Mason

    2005-01-01

    Literature to date has identified three main aspects of liquidation time: firm size, asset specificity, and industry concentration. The present paper unifies the theory behind these three aspects of bankruptcy costs by treating them as components of a broader option valuation problem faced by the liquidating trustee. In the options valuation framework, at time t the trustee may choose to 1) liquidate at current asset values and incur a known loss, or 2) hold until the next period t+1 at a pos...

  19. Analysis of the REAL-84 intercomparison exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-10-01

    The document presents the conclusions and the recommendations of the specialists' meeting organized by the IAEA and held in Jackson Hole (USA) between 27-29 May 1987 as a result of the analysis of the REAL-84 intercomparison exercise for improving the accuracy in radiation damage predictions in the neutron environment using good quality input data and proper calculation methods. 6 refs

  20. Real-time systems design and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Laplante, Phillip A

    2004-01-01

    "Real-Time Systems Design and Analysis, Third Edition is essential for students and practicing software engineers who want improved designs, faster computation, and ultimate cost savings. Chapters discuss hardware considerations and software requirements, software systems design, the software production process, performance estimation and optimization, and engineering considerations."--Jacket.

  1. p-adic analysis compared with real

    CERN Document Server

    Katok, Svetlana

    2007-01-01

    The book gives an introduction to p-adic numbers from the point of view of number theory, topology, and analysis. Compared to other books on the subject, its novelty is both a particularly balanced approach to these three points of view and an emphasis on topics accessible to undergraduates. In addition, several topics from real analysis and elementary topology which are not usually covered in undergraduate courses (totally disconnected spaces and Cantor sets, points of discontinuity of maps and the Baire Category Theorem, surjectivity of isometries of compact metric spaces) are also included in the book. They will enhance the reader's understanding of real analysis and intertwine the real and p-adic contexts of the book. The book is based on an advanced undergraduate course given by the author. The choice of the topic was motivated by the internal beauty of the subject of p-adic analysis, an unusual one in the undergraduate curriculum, and abundant opportunities to compare it with its much more familiar real...

  2. EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián Otero G

    2008-06-01

    representa su capacidad de incorporar en el análisis el valor de la flexibilidad operativa del proyecto.In the past few years, real options, an extension of financial derivatives, have arisen as an alternative to traditional valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV. The key attribute of real options is that they take into consideration the uncertainty and flexibility involved in investment valuation. This article provides an overview of the finite difference method, by presenting an application to the real options valuation. The empirical section of the article, which makes use of the implicit finite difference method (IFD, analyzes the options of waiting, abandoning, contracting, expanding and switching, by valuing all the options involved and their possible combinations. The results are compared with those of the NPV method and the binomial tree with a logarithmic transformation (BTLT. Both methods (IFD and BTLT yield similar results, being both greater than those provided by the NPV. This difference comes to no surprise as it represents the value of the flexibility associated to an investment opportunity.

  3. Making sense of future uncertainties using real options and scenario planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change is forcing health organizations to deal more efficiently with their real estate, and this increases the need for real estate strategies that are more flexible. In order to support managers in

  4. [Alaskan commodities irradiation project: An options analysis study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarling, J.P.; Swanson, R.B.; Logan, R.R.

    1989-09-01

    The ninety-ninth US Congress commissioned a six-state food irradiation research and development program to evaluate the commercial potential of this technology. Hawaii, Washington, Iowa, Oklahoma and Florida as well as Alaska have participated in the national program; various food products including fishery products, red meats, tropical and citrus fruits and vegetables have been studied. The purpose of the Alaskan study was to review and evaluate those factors related to the technical and economic feasibility of an irradiator in Alaska. This options analysis study will serve as a basis for determining the state's further involvement in the development of food irradiation technology

  5. ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domercant, Jean Charles

    The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

  6. Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

    2018-05-01

    The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

  7. Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

    2018-06-01

    This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

  8. Incorporation of Outcome-Based Contract Requirements in a Real Options Approach for Maintenance Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    corrective maintenance (which increases as the RUL is used up), while maximizing the revenue earned during the RUL (which increases as the RUL is used up...running the system to failure, then performing corrective maintenance The value from exercising the option is the sum of the cumulative revenue loss...and the avoided corrective maintenance cost. The cumulative revenue loss is what the system would earn between the predictive maintenance event and

  9. Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

    KAUST Repository

    Hä ppö lä , Juho

    2016-01-01

    We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE

  10. Estimating spillover benefits of large R and D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R and D programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednyagin, Denis; Gnansounou, Edgard

    2012-01-01

    This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R and D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R and D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R and D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD and D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified. - Highlights: ► Evaluate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme. ► Consider different types of spillover effects. ► Economic value of spillovers is estimated with a compound real options model. ► Spillover benefits could represent up to 20% of the value of fusion RDDD programme.

  11. Gentrification and models for real estate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Brusa

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This research propose a deep analysis of Milanese real estate market, based on data supplied by three real estate organizations; gentrification appears in some neighborhoods, such as Tortona, Porta Genova, Bovisa, Isola Garibaldi: the latest is the subject of the final analysis, by surveying of physical and social state of the area. The survey takes place in two periods (2003 and 2009 to compare the evolution of gentrification. The results of surveys has been employed in a simulation by multi-agent system model, to foresee long term evolution of the phenomenon. These neighborhood micro-indicators allow to put in evidence actual trends, conditioning a local real estate market, which can translate themselves in phenomena such as gentrification. In present analysis, the employ of cellular automata models applied to a neighborhood in Milan (Isola Garibaldi produced the dynamic simulation of gentrification trend during a very long time: the cyclical phenomenon (one loop holds a period of twenty – thirty years appears sometimes during a theoretical time of 100 – 120 – 150 years. Simulation of long period scenarios by multi-agent systems and cellular automata provides estimator with powerful tool, without limits in implementing it, able to support him in appraisal judge. It stands also to reason that such a tool can sustain urban planning and related evaluation processes.

  12. Systems analysis of decontamination options for civilian vehicles.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foltz, Greg W.; Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this project, which was supported by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) Chemical and Biological Division (CBD), was to investigate options for the decontamination of the exteriors and interiors of vehicles in the civilian setting in order to restore those vehicles to normal use following the release of a highly toxic chemical. The decontamination of vehicles is especially challenging because they often contain sensitive electronic equipment, multiple materials some of which strongly adsorb chemical agents, and in the case of aircraft, have very rigid material compatibility requirements (i.e., they cannot be exposed to reagents that may cause even minor corrosion). A systems analysis approach was taken examine existing and future civilian vehicle decontamination capabilities.

  13. Spaces an introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Lindstrøm, Tom L

    2017-01-01

    Spaces is a modern introduction to real analysis at the advanced undergraduate level. It is forward-looking in the sense that it first and foremost aims to provide students with the concepts and techniques they need in order to follow more advanced courses in mathematical analysis and neighboring fields. The only prerequisites are a solid understanding of calculus and linear algebra. Two introductory chapters will help students with the transition from computation-based calculus to theory-based analysis. The main topics covered are metric spaces, spaces of continuous functions, normed spaces, differentiation in normed spaces, measure and integration theory, and Fourier series. Although some of the topics are more advanced than what is usually found in books of this level, care is taken to present the material in a way that is suitable for the intended audience: concepts are carefully introduced and motivated, and proofs are presented in full detail. Applications to differential equations and Fourier analysis ...

  14. The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

  15. The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiozer, R.F. [Getulio Vargas Foundation, Sao Paolo (Brazil). School of Administration de Empresas; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B. [Unicamp, Campinas (Brazil). Center of Petroleum Studies

    2007-07-01

    Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  16. The pitfalls of capital budgeting : when costs correlate to oil price. Is the real-options approach superior to traditional valuation?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiozer, R.F.; Costa Lima, G.A.; Suslick, S.B.

    2007-01-01

    Due to increased demand for drilling rigs, specialized labor force and other resources, the costs of exploration, appraisal, development and production have significantly risen over the last five years. The change in costs has mostly been attributed to the increased activity in the oil and gas exploration and production (EP) industry, as a result of the increase in oil prices. It was hypothesized that operating costs in the EP industry were strongly correlated to the price of oil. However, the correlation between prices and costs has traditionally been overlooked in the capital budgeting process. This paper investigated the economic relationship between oil price and the operating costs in the EP industry. It also explored its implications for the capital budgeting process and decision-making. The paper demonstrated the evaluation of projects under traditional net present value (NPV) and real-option approaches. Empirical evidence was also provided on how costs correlated to oil prices. The differences between project valuation when cost-price correlation was taken into account or not was also discussed. Last, findings, conclusions and general implications of the results obtained for the decision-making process were identified. It was concluded that there was a positive correlation between price and operating costs, and that overlooking this relationship would have significant implications on the valuation of investment projects, both using a traditional NPV methodology, which resulted in undervalued projects, and under real option analysis, which resulted in overvaluing projects. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  17. Participatory groundwater management in Jordan: Development and analysis of options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chebaane, Mohamed; El-Naser, Hazim; Fitch, Jim; Hijazi, Amal; Jabbarin, Amer

    Groundwater over-exploitation has been on the rise in Jordan. Competing demands have grown in the face of perennial water shortages, a situation which has been exacerbated by drought conditions in the past decade. This paper reports findings of a project in which management options to address over-exploitation were developed for one of Jordan's principal aquifer systems, the Amman-Zarqa Basin. Options for addressing the situation were developed through a participatory approach that involved government officials and various public and private sector interest groups. Particular efforts were made to involve well irrigators, who are likely to be heavily impacted by the changes required to reduce groundwater pumping to a sustainable level. With information obtained from a rapid appraisal survey as well as from interviews with farmers, community groups, government officials, and technical experts, an extensive set of options was identified for evaluation. Based on integrated hydrogeologic, social, and economic analysis, five complementary management options were recommended for implementation. These included the establishment of an Irrigation Advisory Service, buying out farm wells, placing firm limits on well ion and irrigated crop areas, exchanging treated wastewater for groundwater, and measures to increase the efficiency of municipal and industrial water use. Various combinations and levels of these options were grouped in scenarios, representing possible implementation strategies. The scenarios were designed to assist decision makers, well owners and other stakeholders in moving gradually towards a sustainable ion regime. Social and economic aspects of each option and scenario were analyzed and presented to stakeholders, together with a of legal, institutional and environmental ramifications. Combining scientific analysis with a participatory approach in the Amman Zarqa Basin groundwater management was devised as a prototype to be used in the management of other

  18. Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, W.; Gao, F.

    2012-01-01

    An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyro processing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC) have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU) for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyro techniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.

  19. Safety of timber : An analysis of quality control options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovryga, A.; Stapel, P.; Van de Kuilen, J.W.G.

    2014-01-01

    The quality assurance of timber properties is important for the safety of timber structures. In the current study, the quality control options of timber are analysed under the prism of the different growth regions. Therefore, these options - machine and output control - are simulated in accordance

  20. Screening options for Down syndrome: how women choose in real clinical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, T K; Lai, F K; Leung, W C; Lau, W L; Ng, L S; Wong, W C; Tam, S S; Yee, Y C; Choi, H; Lam, H S W; Sham, A S Y; Tang, L C H; Chin, R K H

    2009-09-01

    To study pregnant women's preference among various screening options for Down syndrome (DS) in routine clinical setting, and its potential association with women's demographic characteristics. Women aged 35 years and older carrying singleton pregnancy were offered a variety of screening tests for DS before 14 weeks of gestation. Their preference was confirmed by the test they actually underwent. The association between women's choice of test and a number of demographic characteristics was studied using multinomial regression. Among 1967 eligible women, 619 opted for first-trimester screening test (FTS), 924 for partial integrated test (PIT), and 424 for full integrated test (FIT). Nulliparous women and working mothers were more likely to choose FTS and FIT. Women with history of subfertility were more likely to choose FIT. Women with family history of chromosomal abnormalities were more likely to choose FTS. The choice of screening test could be predicted for 49.9% of women using four demographic characteristics. Among older women of predominantly Chinese ethnicity, integrated test is a favorite alternative to FTS. Their choice of DS screening test can be predicted by their obstetric and socioeconomic characteristics. Many women show willingness to pay for a test with a lower false-positive rate.

  1. Problems in real and functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Torchinsky, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    It is generally believed that solving problems is the most important part of the learning process in mathematics because it forces students to truly understand the definitions, comb through the theorems and proofs, and think at length about the mathematics. The purpose of this book is to complement the existing literature in introductory real and functional analysis at the graduate level with a variety of conceptual problems (1,457 in total), ranging from easily accessible to thought provoking, mixing the practical and the theoretical aspects of the subject. Problems are grouped into ten chapters covering the main topics usually taught in courses on real and functional analysis. Each of these chapters opens with a brief reader's guide stating the needed definitions and basic results in the area and closes with a short description of the problems. The Problem chapters are accompanied by Solution chapters, which include solutions to two-thirds of the problems. Students can expect the solutions to be written in ...

  2. Analysis of the real EADGENE data set:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaffrézic, Florence; de Koning, Dirk-Jan; Boettcher, Paul J

    2007-01-01

    A large variety of methods has been proposed in the literature for microarray data analysis. The aim of this paper was to present techniques used by the EADGENE (European Animal Disease Genomics Network of Excellence) WP1.4 participants for data quality control, normalisation and statistical...... methods for the detection of differentially expressed genes in order to provide some more general data analysis guidelines. All the workshop participants were given a real data set obtained in an EADGENE funded microarray study looking at the gene expression changes following artificial infection with two...... quarters. Very little transcriptional variation was observed for the bacteria S. aureus. Lists of differentially expressed genes found by the different research teams were, however, quite dependent on the method used, especially concerning the data quality control step. These analyses also emphasised...

  3. A Cost Analysis of Kidney Replacement Therapy Options in Palestine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Younis Ph.D.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study provides a cost analysis of kidney replacement therapy options in Palestine. It informs evidence-based resource allocation decisions for government-funded kidney disease services where transplant donors are limited, and some of the common modalities, i.e., peritoneal dialysis (PD and home hemodialysis (HD, are not widely available due to shortages of qualified staff, specialists, and centers to follow the patient cases, provide training, make home visits, or provide educational programs for patients. The average cost of kidney transplant was US$16 277 for the first year; the estimated cost of HD per patient averaged US$16 085 per year—nearly as much as a transplant. Consistent with prior literature and experience, while live, related kidney donors are scarce, we found that kidney transplant was more adequate and less expensive than HD. These results have direct resource allocation implications for government-funded kidney disease services under Palestinian Ministry of Health. Our findings strongly suggest that investing in sufficient qualified staff, equipment, and clinical infrastructure to replace HD services with transplantation whenever medically indicated and suitable kidney donors are available, as well as deploying PD programs and Home HD programs, will result in major overall cost savings. Our results provide a better understanding of the costs of kidney disease and will help to inform Ministry of Health and related policy makers as they develop short- and long-term strategies for the population, in terms of both cost savings and enhanced quality of life.

  4. Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Tyrone T.; Huang, Shio-Ling

    2011-01-01

    This paper is to develop a modified Tobin's q evaluation method which successfully combines the evaluation criteria of the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. This study provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria. That is, it clearly provides decision-makers with a reference in choosing enter or exit strategies, such as quantitative indicators references. The proposed model introduces two variables stochastic process in continuous time and explores the impact of the occurrence of unexpected events on the project value, so that, it can more authentically response to the project value. The studied issue deals with the firms that have not established energy-saving equipment yet. It attempts to figure out the optimal timing to adopt an energy-saving investment project when it is beneficial and the optimal timing to terminate it when the continuous operation of that business is unprofitable. The future discounted benefit-cost ratio, Q, follows the geometric Brownian motion with the Poisson jump process and the replacement of investment equipment. Except for the evaluation of energy-saving equipment investment project, the proposed model can be applied to other related project evaluation issues, such as energy-saving, CO 2 emission reduction, or general investment projects. - Research highlights: → Develops an approach which combines the traditional Tobin's q and the real options. → Applies to general energy-saving project or other investment projects. → Can more authentically response to the project value with strategic entry and exit. → Provides flexible thinking for decision making criteria via modified Tobin's q model. → Reduces the model complexity and increases the flexibility in practice application.

  5. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  6. Using real options to determine optimal funding strategies for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects in the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckhause, Jeremy; Herold, Johannes

    2014-01-01

    Several projects in the European Union (EU) are currently under development to implement the carbon capture, transport and storage (CCS) technology on a large scale and may be subject to public funding under EU support initiatives. These CCS projects may develop any combination of three types of operating levels: pilot, demonstration and full-scale, representing progressing levels of electric power generation capability. Several projects have commenced at the demonstration level, with full-scale commercial levels planned for approximately 2020. Taking the perspective of a funding agency, we employ a real options framework for determining an optimal project selection and funding strategy for the development of full-scale CCS plants. Specifically, we formulate and solve a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) for obtaining optimal funding solutions in order to achieve at least one successfully operating full-scale CCS plant by a target year. The model demonstrates the improved risk reduction by employing such a multi-stage competition. We then extend the model to consider two sensitivities: (1) the flexibility to spend that budget among the time periods and (2) optimizing the budget, but specifying each time period's allocation a priori. State size and runtimes of the SDP model are provided. - Highlights: • Projects implementing three different CCS technology types are described. • We obtain projects’ transition probabilities and costs from expert interviews. • We use a multi-stage real options model to obtain optimal funding strategies. • Using this approach, actual decision-makers could reduce risks in CCS development

  7. Real option valuation of a decremental regulation service provided by electricity storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Dávid Zoltán; Martyr, Randall

    2017-08-13

    This paper is a quantitative study of a reserve contract for real-time balancing of a power system. Under this contract, the owner of a storage device, such as a battery, helps smooth fluctuations in electricity demand and supply by using the device to increase electricity consumption. The battery owner must be able to provide immediate physical cover, and should therefore have sufficient storage available in the battery before entering the contract. Accordingly, the following problem can be formulated for the battery owner: determine the optimal time to enter the contract and, if necessary, the optimal time to discharge electricity before entering the contract. This problem is formulated as one of optimal stopping, and is solved explicitly in terms of the model parameters and instantaneous values of the power system imbalance. The optimal operational strategies thus obtained ensure that the battery owner has positive expected economic profit from the contract. Furthermore, they provide explicit conditions under which the optimal discharge time is consistent with the overall objective of power system balancing. This paper also carries out a preliminary investigation of the 'lifetime value' aggregated from an infinite sequence of these balancing reserve contracts. This lifetime value, which can be viewed as a single project valuation of the battery, is shown to be positive and bounded. Therefore, in the long run such reserve contracts can be beneficial to commercial operators of electricity storage, while reducing some of the financial and operational risks in power system balancing.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. La scelta della Fair Value Option nello IAS 40: evidenze empiriche sul settore Real Estate

    OpenAIRE

    Porta, Silvia

    2016-01-01

    The adoption of IAS/IFRS by the European Union has represented a key accounting change for European companies and offers a rich source of analysis to the scientific community. This thesis is part of the debate on-going on the choice between fair value and historical cost as the optimal evaluation criterium. The empirical research focuses on the accounting standard IAS 40, which is particularly suitable for this type of investigation as it is one of the few principles that allow the right to c...

  9. A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael Stolbjerg Leni

    2016-01-01

    are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives...... under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment...... on investment incentives also depends on correlations between the underlying stochastic factors. The results may help investors to make informed investment decisions and policy makers to strategically design renewable support and develop tailor-made incentive schemes....

  10. Real analysis a comprehensive course in analysis, part 1

    CERN Document Server

    Simon, Barry

    2015-01-01

    A Comprehensive Course in Analysis by Poincaré Prize winner Barry Simon is a five-volume set that can serve as a graduate-level analysis textbook with a lot of additional bonus information, including hundreds of problems and numerous notes that extend the text and provide important historical background. Depth and breadth of exposition make this set a valuable reference source for almost all areas of classical analysis. Part 1 is devoted to real analysis. From one point of view, it presents the infinitesimal calculus of the twentieth century with the ultimate integral calculus (measure theory)

  11. Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yessica González Londoño

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

  12. REIT Performance and Option of Financing Real Estate Project in Developing Countries - (A Case of M-REIT and NREIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olaopin Olanrele Olusegun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance of REITs have been largely measured using benchmark from the stock market indices (S&P500, Sharpe ratio, KLCI, etc or correlation studies. The real world of REIT shows that both economic and environmental factors exert influence on REIT performance on a simultaneous nature. Adopting quantitative method, where secondary data were statistically analysed. We proposed the use of multivariate regression where REIT performance (Y is the independent variable to be predicted by predictor variables of internal and external factors (X1–Xn. We equally proposed a possibility of REIT financing real estate project, against the existing regulations which prohibit such, using average return method of portfolio analysis on assumed numerical data. The study finds that economic factors jointly have a significant effect on REIT performance at P =0.044 while none of the factors has significant contribution individually. A benchmark REIT return of 5.3% is predicted. The study recommends a linear regression model analysis for REITs benchmark based on past performance for return measurement. REIT can only finance real estate project in the countries where there is acute shortage of fund and property stock. We suggest a modification of REIT laws to accommodate real estate financing by REITs.

  13. THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adhy Listya Paramitha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

  14. Lifecycle analysis of different urban transport options for Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossain, Ijaz; Guelen, Guercan

    2007-01-01

    Once again, sustained high oil prices are forcing policy makers in oil importing countries to consider alternatives to oil products as transportation fuels. Unlike in the past, advancements in technology, relative success of some experiments and increased familiarity among and acceptance by the public of some alternatives indicate a higher likelihood of success. In particular, natural gas offers a couple of the best options as compressed natural gas (CNG) and chemical conversion of natural gas into diesel (gas-to-liquids, GTL). These options are likely to be most attractive in countries that have cheap access to natural gas. We compare lifetime costs of several individual transportation options for Bangladesh, an oil importer with natural gas reserves. The results are then used to inform the natural gas policy debate in the country. Assuming a natural gas price of 1.5 per million Btu, both the CNG and GTL options are competitive with conventional gasoline/diesel cars if the oil price stays higher than 35-40 per barrel. If natural gas price increases after new upstream developments, CNG becomes less attractive while GTL remains competitive up to 2.5 if capital costs of GTL facilities decline as expected. Under a government policy push (lower discounting), the breakeven price of oil falls to 30-35 per barrel. (author)

  15. Commercial real estate analysis and investments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geltner, D.; Miller, N.; Clayton, J.; Eichholtz, P.M.A.

    2013-01-01

    The well-known and respected authorship team of Geltner and Miller bring you a new edition of what has become the undisputed and authoritative resource on commercial real estate investment. Streamlined and completely updated with expanded coverage of corporate and international real estate

  16. Multirole cargo aircraft options and configurations. [economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, D. W.; Vaughan, J. C., III

    1979-01-01

    A future requirements and advanced market evaluation study indicates derivatives of current wide-body aircraft, using 1980 advanced technology, would be economically attractive through 2008, but new dedicated airfreighters incorporating 1990 technology, would offer little or no economic incentive. They would be economically attractive for all payload sizes, however, if RD and T costs could be shared in a joint civil/military arrangement. For the 1994-2008 cargo market, option studies indicate Mach 0.7 propfans would be economically attractive in trip cost, aircraft price and airline ROI. Spanloaders would have an even lower price and higher ROI but would have a relatively high trip cost because of aerodynamic inefficiencies. Dedicated airfreighters using propfans at Mach 0.8 cruise, laminar flow control, or cryofuels, would not provide any great economic benefits. Air cushion landing gear configurations are identified as an option for avoiding runway constraints on airport requirements and/or operational constraints are noted.

  17. Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchiella, Federica; D'Adamo, Idiano; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

    2014-06-01

    Green supply chain management (GSCM) has emerged as a key approach for enterprises seeking to become environmentally sustainable. This paper aims to evaluate and describe the advantages of a GSCM approach by analysing practices and performance consequences in the battery recycling sector. It seeks to integrate works in supply chain management (SCM), environmental management, performance management and real option (RO) theory into one framework. In particular, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of a battery recycling plant project, and life cycle costing (LCC) is applied to evaluate its economic impact. Firms, also understanding the relevance of GSCM, have often avoided applying the green principles because of the elevated costs that such management involved. Such costs could also seem superior to the potential advantages since standard performance measurement systems are internally and business focused; for these reasons, we consider all the possible value deriving also by uncertainty associated to a green project using the RO theory. This work is one of the few and pioneering efforts to investigate GSCM practices in the battery recycling sector.

  18. Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Ranieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

  19. Dedicating new real estate transfer taxes for energy efficiency: A revenue option for scaling up Green Retrofit Programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lester, T. William

    2013-01-01

    As the labor market in the U.S. remains weak, with high unemployment and sluggish job growth, policymakers at various levels of government are looking for new ways to support job growth and investment during an increasingly tight fiscal climate. Policies that promote the “Green Economy” in general and energy efficiency in particular remain politically popular as potential win–win solutions that will create jobs and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, efforts to promote energy efficiency in the residential sector through rebates and incentives alone have yet to reach critical mass. This paper outlines a policy option for state and local governments to use real estate transfer taxes to generate stronger incentives for home buyers to undertake significant retrofit projects at the time of sale. The economic impact of the proposed energy efficiency transfer tax (EETT) is then modeled for the State of North Carolina, using standard input–output techniques. Ultimately, based on housing sales figures from 2010, a new EETT of 2.5 percent on home purchases would generate a net positive increase of approximately 3485 direct construction jobs and 5900 annually total jobs for the state. -- Highlights: •Proposes an Energy Efficiency Transfer Tax (EETT) to catalyze residential retrofits. •Models household behavioral response to an EETT. •Estimates induced energy efficiency investment levels in North Carolina. •Calculates net employment impacts of a hypothetical EETT. •Finds net impact of 5900 jobs and over $350 million in additional investment

  20. Preliminary Analysis of Helicopter Options to Support Tunisian Counterterrorism Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-27

    helicopters from Sikorsky to fulfill a number of roles in counterterrorism operations. Rising costs and delays in delivery raised the question of...whether other cost-effective options exist to meet Tunisia’s helicopter requirement. Approach Our team conducted a preliminary assessment of...alternative helicopters for counterterrorism air assault missions. Any decision to acquire an aircraft must consider many factors, including technical

  1. ENVI Model Development for Korean Nuclear Spent Fuel Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Sunyoung; Jeong, Yon Hong; Han, Jae-Jun; Lee, Aeri; Hwang, Yong-Soo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The disposal facility of the spent nuclear fuel will be operated from 2051. This paper presents the ENVI code developed by GoldSim Software to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. The ENVI is a simulator to allow decision-makers to assist to evaluate the performance for spent nuclear fuel management. The multiple options for managing the spent nuclear fuel including the storage and transportation are investigated into interim storage, permanent disposal in geological repositories and overseas and domestic reprocessing. The ENVI code uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities. The result by the ENVI model not only produces the total cost to compare among the multiple options but also predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. In order to decide the policy for spent nuclear management this purpose of this paper is to draw the optimum management plan to solve the nuclear spent fuel issue in the economical aspects. This paper is focused on the development of the ENVI's logic and calculations to simulate four options(No Reprocessing, Overseas Reprocessing, Domestic Reprocessing, and Overseas and Domestic Reprocessing) for managing the spent nuclear fuel in South Korea. The time history of the spent nuclear fuel produced from both the existing and future NPP's can be predicted, based on the Goldsim software made available very user friendly model. The simulation result will be used to suggest the strategic plans for the spent nuclear fuel management.

  2. Analysis of international practice patterns regarding postvasectomy fertility options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blach, Ola; Shridharani, Anand N; Sandlow, Jay I

    2014-05-01

    To review the management of postvasectomy fertility options by urologists with vs without andrology fellowship and compare the features of practice in the USA vs UK. We conducted an audit of all American Urological Association-affiliated urologists regarding their practice in managing men requesting vasectomy reversal (VR). Standards of practice were assessed against 10 index parameters deemed, by 1 UK study, to reflect best practice. Fisher exact test was used to test the hypothesis that management of postvasectomy fertility options and practice of VR are no different when undertaken by urologists with vs without andrology training and no different in the USA vs UK. Three hundred twenty-five of 645 US respondents (50.4%) practiced VR vs 178 of 213 (83.6%) in the UK; only 11.9% in the US and 10% in the UK performed >25 and >15 (P <.0001) VR/year, respectively. Compared with the UK urologists the US urologists offered more detailed information on all fertility options and/or outcomes, used microsurgical techniques more often, but less frequently counseled couples together, and referred patients to specialist centers for in vitro fertilization with intracytoplasmic sperm injection (P <.0001-.05). Only 74 of the US and 61 of the UK urologists were fellowship-trained in andrology. Most non-fellowship-trained urologists, in both the countries, performed <5 VR/year and were, statistically, significantly less likely to counsel couples about all fertility options, be conversant in in vitro fertilization with intracytoplasmic sperm injection, provide individualized outcomes data, and use microsurgical techniques (P <.0001-.05). Significant differences exist in the standards of practice between both the US and UK urologists performing VR. Concordance with the indices of "best practice" improves with andrology training and increasing number of procedures performed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. ENVI Model Development for Korean Nuclear Spent Fuel Options Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Sunyoung; Jeong, Yon Hong; Han, Jae-Jun; Lee, Aeri; Hwang, Yong-Soo

    2015-01-01

    The disposal facility of the spent nuclear fuel will be operated from 2051. This paper presents the ENVI code developed by GoldSim Software to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. The ENVI is a simulator to allow decision-makers to assist to evaluate the performance for spent nuclear fuel management. The multiple options for managing the spent nuclear fuel including the storage and transportation are investigated into interim storage, permanent disposal in geological repositories and overseas and domestic reprocessing. The ENVI code uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities. The result by the ENVI model not only produces the total cost to compare among the multiple options but also predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. In order to decide the policy for spent nuclear management this purpose of this paper is to draw the optimum management plan to solve the nuclear spent fuel issue in the economical aspects. This paper is focused on the development of the ENVI's logic and calculations to simulate four options(No Reprocessing, Overseas Reprocessing, Domestic Reprocessing, and Overseas and Domestic Reprocessing) for managing the spent nuclear fuel in South Korea. The time history of the spent nuclear fuel produced from both the existing and future NPP's can be predicted, based on the Goldsim software made available very user friendly model. The simulation result will be used to suggest the strategic plans for the spent nuclear fuel management

  4. A Real Options Method for Estimating the Adoption Potential of Forestry and Agroforestry Systems on Private Lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2010-01-01

    The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV), once was the largest forested bottom-land area in the continental United States, but has undergone widespread loss of forest through conversion to farmland. Restoration of forest functions and values has been a key conservation goal in the LMAV since the 1970s. This study utilizes a partial differential real options...

  5. Flexibility in using Diesel or biodiesel: an approach via real options; Flexibilidade na utilizacao de Diesel ou biodiesel: uma abordagem via opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goncalves, Edson Daniel Lopes [Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: edson@fgvmail.br; Ferreira, Leonardo Leandro [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: leonardo.ferreira@petrobras.com.br

    2008-09-15

    This work will approach the bio diesel development as renewable source fuel in the Brazilian energetic matrix. Essentially, the utilization flexibility will be considered between the traditional petroleum origin Diesel and the vegetable origin Biodiesel. So, our target is the evaluation of the flexibility existent between those two fuels. A consideration will be made via real options, where the fuel choice for supplying is modelled as a an european options sequence. Those switch input real options attributes a value to the project and minimizes the risks associated to the energy offer shortage which is another recurrent problem inside our reality. At least, some comments will be made on the potential gain on the aggregate value for the Brazil, as a consequence of Diesel dependent road transportation.

  6. A basic course in real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Ajit

    2014-01-01

    Real Number SystemAlgebra of the Real Number System Upper and Lower Bounds LUB Property and Its Applications Absolute Value and Triangle Inequality Sequences and Their Convergence Sequences and Their Convergence Cauchy Sequences Monotone Sequences Sandwich Lemma Some Important Limits Sequences Diverging to Subsequences Sequences Defined Recursively Continuity Continuous Functions Definition of Continuity Intermediate Value Theorem .Extreme Value Theorem Monotone Functions Limits Uniform Continuity Continuous Extensions Differentiation Differentiability of Functions Mean Value Theorems L'Hospit

  7. An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

    2016-01-01

    A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

  8. Real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, F.; Daniell, J.; Khazai, B.; Mühr, B.; Kunz-Plapp, T.; Markus, M.; Vervaeck, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM, www.cedim.de) - an interdisciplinary research center founded by the German Research Centre for Geoscience (GFZ) and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - has embarked on a new style of disaster research known as Forensic Disaster Analysis. The notion has been coined by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk initiative (IRDR, www.irdrinternational.org) launched by ICSU in 2010. It has been defined as an approach to studying natural disasters that aims at uncovering the root causes of disasters through in-depth investigations that go beyond the reconnaissance reports and case studies typically conducted after disasters. In adopting this comprehensive understanding of disasters CEDIM adds a real-time component to the assessment and evaluation process. By comprehensive we mean that most if not all relevant aspects of disasters are considered and jointly analysed. This includes the impact (human, economy, and infrastructure), comparisons with recent historic events, social vulnerability, reconstruction and long-term impacts on livelihood issues. The forensic disaster analysis research mode is thus best characterized as "event-based research" through systematic investigation of critical issues arising after a disaster across various inter-related areas. The forensic approach requires (a) availability of global data bases regarding previous earthquake losses, socio-economic parameters, building stock information, etc.; (b) leveraging platforms such as the EERI clearing house, relief-web, and the many sources of local and international sources where information is organized; and (c) rapid access to critical information (e.g., crowd sourcing techniques) to improve our understanding of the complex dynamics of disasters. The main scientific questions being addressed are: What are critical factors that control loss of life, of infrastructure, and for economy? What are the critical interactions

  9. An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

    2012-11-01

    Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is

  10. Is 'Opt-Out HIV Testing' a real option among pregnant women in rural districts in Kenya?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wamalwa David

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An 'opt-out' policy of routine HIV counseling and testing (HCT is being implemented across sub-Saharan Africa to expand prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT. Although the underlying assumption is that pregnant women in rural Africa are able to voluntarily consent to HIV testing, little is known about the reality and whether 'opt-out' HCT leads to higher completion rates of PMTCT. Factors associated with consent to HIV testing under the 'opt-out' approach were investigated through a large cross-sectional study in Kenya. Methods Observations during HIV pre-test information sessions were followed by a cross-sectional survey of 900 pregnant women in three public district hospitals carrying out PMTCT in the Busia district. Women on their first antenatal care (ANC visit during the current pregnancy were interviewed after giving blood for HIV testing but before learning their test results. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis were performed. Results Of the 900 women participating, 97% tested for HIV. Lack of testing kits was the only reason for women not being tested, i.e. nobody declined HIV testing. Despite the fact that 96% had more than four earlier pregnancies and 37% had been tested for HIV at ANC previously, only 17% of the women surveyed knew that testing was optional. Only 20% of those surveyed felt they could make an informed decision to decline HIV testing. Making an informed decision to decline HIV testing was associated with knowing that testing was optional (OR = 5.44, 95%CI 3.44-8.59, not having a stable relationship with the child's father (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.02-3.03, and not having discussed HIV testing with a partner before the ANC visit (OR = 2.64 95%CI 1.79-3.86. Conclusion High coverage of HIV testing appears to be achieved at the cost of pregnant women not understanding that testing is optional. Good quality HIV pre-test information is central to ensure that pregnant women

  11. The impact of "Option B" on HIV transmission from mother to child in Rwanda: An interrupted time series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abimpaye, Monique; Kirk, Catherine M; Iyer, Hari S; Gupta, Neil; Remera, Eric; Mugwaneza, Placidie; Law, Michael R

    2018-01-01

    Nearly a quarter of a million children have acquired HIV, prompting the implementation of new protocols-Option B and B+-for treating HIV+ pregnant women. While efficacy has been demonstrated in randomized trials, there is limited real-world evidence on the impact of these changes. Using longitudinal, routinely collected data we assessed the impact of the adoption of WHO Option B in Rwanda on mother to infant transmission. We used interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of Option B on mother-to-child HIV transmission in Rwanda. Our primary outcome was the proportion of HIV tests in infants with positive results at six weeks of age. We included data for 20 months before and 22 months after the 2010 policy change. Of the 15,830 HIV tests conducted during our study period, 392 tested positive. We found a significant decrease in both the level (-2.08 positive tests per 100 tests conducted, 95% CI: -2.71 to -1.45, p Option B in Rwanda contributed to an immediate decrease in the rate of HIV transmission from mother to child. This suggests other countries may benefit from adopting these WHO guidelines.

  12. Market segmentation for multiple option healthcare delivery systems--an application of cluster analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarboe, G R; Gates, R H; McDaniel, C D

    1990-01-01

    Healthcare providers of multiple option plans may be confronted with special market segmentation problems. This study demonstrates how cluster analysis may be used for discovering distinct patterns of preference for multiple option plans. The availability of metric, as opposed to categorical or ordinal, data provides the ability to use sophisticated analysis techniques which may be superior to frequency distributions and cross-tabulations in revealing preference patterns.

  13. Combinations of options: Methodology for impact analysis. Development plan 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The orientations favored by Hydro-Quebec in terms of electricity supply and demand are based on a few key selection criteria. These criteria, as described in its development plan, pertain to economic benefit for the utility and its customers, compatibility with sustainable development, minimization of costs to customers, preservation of the utility's financial health, generation of economic spinoffs, and ease of adaptation. Impacts are calculated to illustrate the selection criteria. The main methods, assumptions, and components used in evaluating the various impacts are described. The discounted overall cost for Hydro-Quebec and all of its customers, means of meeting electricity requirements, and the economic benefit for Hydro-Quebec of the various market development options are discussed. The indicators chosen for environmental impact assessment are set forth and the method used to calculate long-term supply costs is presented, along with the methods for calculating economic spinoffs. Finally, the concepts of energy mix and energy self-sufficiency are outlined. 1 tab

  14. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-03-01

    The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Delaying investments in sensor technology: The rationality of dairy farmers' investment decisions illustrated within the framework of real options theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutten, C J; Steeneveld, W; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Hogeveen, H

    2018-05-02

    The adoption rate of sensors on dairy farms varies widely. Whereas some sensors are hardly adopted, others are adopted by many farmers. A potential rational explanation for the difference in adoption may be the expected future technological progress in the sensor technology and expected future improved decision support possibilities. For some sensors not much progress can be expected because the technology has already made enormous progress in recent years, whereas for sensors that have only recently been introduced on the market, much progress can be expected. The adoption of sensors may thus be partly explained by uncertainty about the investment decision, in which uncertainty lays in the future performance of the sensors and uncertainty about whether improved informed decision support will become available. The overall aim was to offer a plausible example of why a sensor may not be adopted now. To explain this, the role of uncertainty about technological progress in the investment decision was illustrated for highly adopted sensors (automated estrus detection) and hardly adopted sensors (automated body condition score). This theoretical illustration uses the real options theory, which accounts for the role of uncertainty in the timing of investment decisions. A discrete event model, simulating a farm of 100 dairy cows, was developed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of investing now and investing in 5 yr in both sensor systems. The results show that investing now in automated estrus detection resulted in a higher NPV than investing 5 yr from now, whereas for the automated body condition score postponing the investment resulted in a higher NPV compared with investing now. These results are in line with the observation that farmers postpone investments in sensors. Also, the current high adoption of automated estrus detection sensors can be explained because the NPV of investing now is higher than the NPV of investing in 5 yr. The results confirm that

  16. Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects Las opciones reales como metodología alternativa en la evaluación de proyectos de inversión

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Enrique Aristizábal Velásquez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making. Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented. A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method. Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options.Este trabajo busca ampliar la aplicabilidad de la metodología de valoración de proyectos de inversión por medio de opciones reales como un elemento fundamental al momento de tomar una decisión de si se debe invertir o no. Se hace un recorrido por las técnicas tradicionales para valorar un proyecto de inversión y se plantean los vacíos que estos dejan, con respecto a proyectos en los que su principal característica es la incertidumbre. Se realiza un paralelo entre las opciones financieras y las opciones reales que per- mita valorar, utilizando la metodología de los árboles binomiales. Por último, se elabora un caso del que se plantea valorar una opción de espera y una opción de expandir de manera conjunta en el sector de la construcción.

  17. A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    E-Khatib, Youssef

    2012-09-01

    One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

  18. Real analysis an introduction to the theory of real functions and integration

    CERN Document Server

    Dshalalow, Jewgeni H

    2000-01-01

    Designed for use in a two-semester course on abstract analysis, REAL ANALYSIS: An Introduction to the Theory of Real Functions and Integration illuminates the principle topics that constitute real analysis. Self-contained, with coverage of topology, measure theory, and integration, it offers a thorough elaboration of major theorems, notions, and constructions needed not only by mathematics students but also by students of statistics and probability, operations research, physics, and engineering.Structured logically and flexibly through the author''s many years of teaching experience, the material is presented in three main sections:Part 1, chapters 1through 3, covers the preliminaries of set theory and the fundamentals of metric spaces and topology. This section can also serves as a text for first courses in topology.Part II, chapter 4 through 7, details the basics of measure and integration and stands independently for use in a separate measure theory course.Part III addresses more advanced topics, includin...

  19. Analysis and Synthesis of Distributed Real-Time Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    like automotive electronics, real-time multimedia, avionics, medical equipment, and factory systems. The proposed analysis and synthesis techniques derive optimized implementations that fulfill the imposed design constraints. An important part of the implementation process is the synthesis...

  20. Analysis and optimisation of heterogeneous real-time embedded systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2005-01-01

    . The success of such new design methods depends on the availability of analysis and optimisation techniques. Analysis and optimisation techniques for heterogeneous real-time embedded systems are presented in the paper. The authors address in more detail a particular class of such systems called multi...... of application messages to frames. Optimisation heuristics for frame packing aimed at producing a schedulable system are presented. Extensive experiments and a real-life example show the efficiency of the frame-packing approach....

  1. Analysis and optimisation of heterogeneous real-time embedded systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2006-01-01

    . The success of such new design methods depends on the availability of analysis and optimisation techniques. Analysis and optimisation techniques for heterogeneous real-time embedded systems are presented in the paper. The authors address in more detail a particular class of such systems called multi...... of application messages to frames. Optimisation heuristics for frame packing aimed at producing a schedulable system are presented. Extensive experiments and a real-life example show the efficiency of the frame-packing approach....

  2. Analysis and Optimization of Heterogeneous Real-Time Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2005-01-01

    . The success of such new design methods depends on the availability of analysis and optimization techniques. In this paper, we present analysis and optimization techniques for heterogeneous real-time embedded systems. We address in more detail a particular class of such systems called multi-clusters, composed...... to frames. Optimization heuristics for frame packing aiming at producing a schedulable system are presented. Extensive experiments and a real-life example show the efficiency of the frame-packing approach....

  3. Quantitative analysis of natural resource management options at different scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keulen, van H.

    2007-01-01

    Natural capital (land, water, air) consists of many resources, each with its own quality, dynamics and renewability, but with strong interactions. The increasing competition for the natural resources, especially land and water, calls for a basic redirection in the analysis of land use. In this

  4. Macroeconomics of natural disasters : Meta-analysis and policy options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Peter); S. Lazzaroni (Sara)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe use the case of the impact of natural disasters to analyse strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis in an emerging research field. Macroeconomists have published on this issue since 2002 (we identified 22 studies to date). The results of the studies are contradictory and

  5. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making

  6. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  7. PIXE analysis: an option for the study of atmospheric pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aldape, U.F.

    1989-01-01

    Several techniques have been utilized in studying atmospheric contamination samples. However, each lack some characteristics required for these studies. Spectroscopy of X-rays particularly where excitation models are produced using charged particles (Particle Induced X-ray Emission, PIXE), for its high sensitivity, is the one that best fitting itself to the scheme of analysis required. In this paper we report some qualitative results of the atmospheric aerosol samples collected in Mexico City. (Author)

  8. Is recycling the best policy option? Insights from life cycle analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaines, L.L.; Stodolsky, F.

    1996-03-01

    The public perceives that the more we recycle, the better off we are. However, both the concept of recycling and the benefits to be achieved from recycling are somewhat vague. To determine the best option for disposition of a material at the end of its first use, we need to first define the available options and then clarify the possible goals that can be achieved by them. The best option will depend on the material, goals to be achieved, and location-dependent factors, such as costs, resources, and regulations. This paper presents the results of a life-cycle energy analysis of kraft paper and newsprint by Argonne National Laboratory. They indicate that under some circumstances, the option of fiber-energy recovery will maximize the benefits that can. be realized from the U.S. used paper resource.

  9. ANALYSIS OF OPTION FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF STUDENTS STUDYING ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia, VECHIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is important, entrepreneur plays a major role at micro and maroeconomic level. Entrepreneur is the manager and employee at the same time, is leader and innovator, his company provides products and services that society needs. Europe needs more entrepreneurs and those who want to follow the path of entrepreneurship needs to face multiple challenges that can be overcome when the future entrepreneur benefit from a complex entrepreneurship education. This paper aims, through applied questionnaire, to identify whether future economists are determined to choose the path of entrepreneurship and start a business on their own. Also, we wanted to identify the obstacles that interviewees consider that you have to struggle to start their business. We applied a questionnaire to students, final year bachelor's degree, studying economics. They were chosen because during the three years study several economic disciplines: microeconomics, macroeconomics, management, accounting, finance, law, economic analysis, the national economy, European policy.

  10. IPv4 and IPv6 protocol compatibility options analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina Misevičienė

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The popularity of the internet has led to a very rapid growth of IPv4 (Internet Protocol v4 users. This caused a shortage of IP addresses, so it was created a new version – IPv6 (Internet Protocol v6. Currently, there are two versions of IP for IPv4 and IPv6. Due to the large differences in addressing the protocols IPv4 and IPv6 are incompatible. It is therefore necessary to find ways to move from IPv4 to IPv6. To facilitate the transition from one version to another are developed various mechanisms and strategies. Comparative analysis is done for dual stack, 6to4 tunnel and NAT64 mechanisms in this work. It has helped to reveal the shortcomings of these mechanisms and their application in selection of realization decisions.

  11. The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

    2013-09-30

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

  12. Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 2: Options development, DR-5. Volume 2: Design options

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    The primary objective of Task 2 is the development of an information base that will support the conduct of trade studies and provide sufficient data to make key design/programmatic decisions. This includes: (1) the establishment of option categories that are most likely to influence Space Station Data System (SSDS) definition; (2) the identification of preferred options in each category; and (3) the characterization of these options with respect to performance attributes, constraints, cost and risk. This volume contains the options development for the design category. This category comprises alternative structures, configurations and techniques that can be used to develop designs that are responsive to the SSDS requirements. The specific areas discussed are software, including data base management and distributed operating systems; system architecture, including fault tolerance and system growth/automation/autonomy and system interfaces; time management; and system security/privacy. Also discussed are space communications and local area networking.

  13. Enabling Real-Time Analysis at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Govorkova, Katya

    2017-01-01

    A new streaming strategy of the LHCb experiment includes the possibility to perform the physics analysis with candidates reconstructed in the trigger, thus bypassing the offline reconstruction. In the Turbo stream the trigger writes out a compact summary of physics objects containing all information necessary for analyses. This allows an increased output rate and thus higher average efficiencies. The Turbo stream was introduced in 2015 and has allowed for and expanded physics program in Run 2 of the LHC.

  14. An analysis of evacuation options for nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tawil, J J; Strenge, D L; Schultz, R W

    1987-11-01

    The threat of release of a hazardous substance into the atmosphere will sometimes require that the population at risk be evacuated. If the substance is particularly hazardous or the release is exceptionally large, then an extensive area may have to be evacuated at substantial cost. In this report we consider the threat posed by the accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant. The report's objective is to establish relationships between radiation dose and the cost of evacuation under a wide variety of conditions. The dose can almost always be reduced by evacuating the population from a larger area. However, extending the evacuation zone outward will cause evacuation costs to increase. The purpose of this analysis was to provide the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a data base for evaluating whether implementation costs and risks averted could be used to justify evacuation at lower doses than would be required based on acceptable risk of health effects alone. The procedures used and results of these analyses are being made available as background information for use by others. In this report we develop cost/dose relationships for 54 scenarios that are based upon the severity of the reactor accident, meteorological conditions during the release of radionuclides into the environment, and the angular width of the evacuation zone. The 54 scenarios are derived from combinations of three accident severity levels, six meteorological conditions and evacuation zone widths of 70 deg, 90 deg, and 180 deg. Appendix tables are provided to allow acceptable evaluation of the cost/dose relationships for a wide variety of scenarios. Guidance and examples are provided in the text to show how these tables can be used.

  15. Budget impact analysis of 8 hormonal contraceptive options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespi, Simone; Kerrigan, Matthew; Sood, Vipan

    2013-07-01

    To develop a model comparing costs of 8 hormonal contraceptives and determine whether acquisition costs for implants and intrauterine devices (IUDs) were offset by decreased pregnancy-related costs over a 3-year time horizon from a managed care perspective. A model was developed to assess the budget impact of branded or generic oral contraceptives (OCs), quarterly intramuscular depot medroxyprogesterone, etonogestrel/ethinyl estradiol vaginal ring, etonogestrel implant, levonorgestrel IUD, norelgestromin/ethinyl estradiol transdermal contraceptive, and ethinyl estradiol/levonorgestrel extended-cycle OC. Major variables included drug costs, typical use failure rates, discontinuation rates, and pregnancy costs. The base case assessed costs for 1000 women initiating each of the hormonal contraceptives. The etonogestrel implant and levonorgestrel IUD resulted in the fewest pregnancies, 63 and 85, respectively, and the least cost, $1.75 million and $2.0 million, respectively. In comparison, generic OC users accounted for a total of 243 pregnancies and $3.4 million in costs. At the end of year 1, costs for the etonogestrel implant ($800,471) and levonorgestrel IUD ($949,721) were already lower than those for generic OCs ($1,146,890). Sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of pregnancies, not product acquisition cost, was the primary cost driver. Higher initial acquisition costs for the etonogestrel implant and levonorgestrel IUD were offset within 1 year by lower contraceptive failure rates and consequent pregnancy costs. Thus, after accounting for typical use failure rates of contraceptive products, the etonogestrel implant and levonorgestrel IUD emerged as the least expensive hormonal contraceptives.

  16. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  17. The primary assessment tool at Philips electronics : capturing real options and organizational risk in technology portfolio management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    I develop an extended scoring approach to build a balanced portfolio of new technology projects under uncertainty at early stages of development. My contribution is twofold. First, I show how the tool incorporates the option approach to decision making to create contingent claims on future market

  18. Multifractal analysis of real and imaginary movements: EEG study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, Alexey N.; Maksimenko, Vladimir A.; Runnova, Anastasiya E.; Khramova, Marina V.; Pisarchik, Alexander N.

    2018-04-01

    We study abilities of the wavelet-based multifractal analysis in recognition specific dynamics of electrical brain activity associated with real and imaginary movements. Based on the singularity spectra we analyze electroencephalograms (EEGs) acquired in untrained humans (operators) during imagination of hands movements, and show a possibility to distinguish between the related EEG patterns and the recordings performed during real movements or the background electrical brain activity. We discuss how such recognition depends on the selected brain region.

  19. Real Time Engineering Analysis Based on a Generative Component Implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Klitgaard, Jens

    2007-01-01

    The present paper outlines the idea of a conceptual design tool with real time engineering analysis which can be used in the early conceptual design phase. The tool is based on a parametric approach using Generative Components with embedded structural analysis. Each of these components uses the g...

  20. Should France invest in new nuclear technology? The enhancement of the EPR project using 'real option' method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epaulard, A.; Gallon, St.

    2000-01-01

    The mathematical tools developed to enhance financial options can also be used to calculate the economics value of investment projects which offer flexibility but whose return is uncertain (like options offered on the stock exchange). In this article, an enhancement method of this kind is applied to a construction project (in 2000) for an EPR nuclear prototype. This prototype will make it possible to use EPR to renew the French electrical infrastructure in 2020 (flexibility), but its economic value will depend upon competitiveness vis-a-vis other production methods available at this time (hence an uncertain return). We demonstrate that investing in EPR technology in 2000 will provide sufficient flexibility in 2020 to be considered profitable, even though it is improbable that the EPR technology will be used at the end of this period. The investment agreed in 2000 to expand EPR technology therefore effectively has the role of an option, or of an insurance policy (guaranteeing against the risk that traditional electricity production methods will be expensive in 2020). (authors)

  1. Economic assessment of R and D with real options in the field of fast reactors taking into account uncertainty on their competitiveness: the case of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taverdet-Popiolek, Nathalie; Shoai Tehrani, Bianka

    2013-01-01

    In a context of potential worldwide nuclear development, this paper aims at assessing the economic value of pursuing research in Generation IV fast reactors today, given that it would allow industrial deployment around 2040 in case of high uranium prices. Two key variables shall be considered as inputs for the assessment: the price of uranium and the over-cost of Generation IV reactors compared to the previous generation. Our model based on real options theory demonstrates that this value is positive and outweighs the risks associated with the competitiveness of Generation IV. (authors)

  2. Pattern theory the stochastic analysis of real-world signals

    CERN Document Server

    Mumford, David

    2010-01-01

    Pattern theory is a distinctive approach to the analysis of all forms of real-world signals. At its core is the design of a large variety of probabilistic models whose samples reproduce the look and feel of the real signals, their patterns, and their variability. Bayesian statistical inference then allows you to apply these models in the analysis of new signals. This book treats the mathematical tools, the models themselves, and the computational algorithms for applying statistics to analyze six representative classes of signals of increasing complexity. The book covers patterns in text, sound

  3. Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Shanahan

    Full Text Available AIMS: To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. METHOD: A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events. The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB. FINDINGS: The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. CONCLUSION: Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

  4. Cost benefit analysis of two policy options for cannabis: status quo and legalisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Marian; Ritter, Alison

    2014-01-01

    To date there has been limited analysis of the economic costs and benefits associated with cannabis legalisation. This study redresses this gap. A cost benefit analysis of two cannabis policy options the status quo (where cannabis use is illegal) and a legalised-regulated option was conducted. A cost benefit analysis was used to value the costs and benefits of the two policies in monetary terms. Costs and benefits of each policy option were classified into five categories (direct intervention costs, costs or cost savings to other agencies, benefits or lost benefits to the individual or the family, other impacts on third parties, and adverse or spill over events). The results are expressed as a net social benefit (NSB). The mean NSB per annum from Monte Carlo simulations (with the 5 and 95 percentiles) for the status quo was $294.6 million AUD ($201.1 to $392.7 million) not substantially different from the $234.2 million AUD ($136.4 to $331.1 million) for the legalised-regulated model which excludes government revenue as a benefit. When government revenue is included, the NSB for legalised-regulated is higher than for status quo. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate the significant impact of educational attainment and wellbeing as drivers for the NSB result. Examining the percentiles around the two policy options, there appears to be no difference between the NSB for these two policy options. Economic analyses are essential for good public policy, providing information about the extent to which one policy is substantially economically favourable over another. In cannabis policy, for these two options this does not appear to be the case.

  5. Analysis on one type of swing option in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mistry, Hetal A.

    2005-01-01

    In the Nordic electricity market most of the trading takes place in derivates and options. To describe these products theoretically one needs to have knowledge from stochastic analysis. This thesis will derive a price model for one type of swing option in energy market. The main aim of writing this thesis is to introduce coal power plant and how to approach the problem if such power plant is built in Norway. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price of electricity and coal, and then derive theoretical option prices. I use a Schwartz process for model and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity and coal. This model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the Schwartz model. The main objectives of this thesis were to find the price for a tolling contract in energy market and production volume that is producers control function. The first chapters gives an over view about the agreement and the formula used to derive the price. The second chapter provided me with the material I needed to derive these price and production volume such as dynamics for the spot prices for electricity and coal and their solution. Third chapter gives a statistical look on these stochastic processes. In the last chapter I tested the price model for stochastic control problem and found that the swing option can be bound in two ways: 1. Swing option limited as Margrabes solution. 2. Swing option limited as spread option. The use of the model is discussed. (Author)

  6. Macro-economic analysis of forestry options on carbon sequestration in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadekodi, Gopal K.; Ravindranath, N.H.

    1997-01-01

    There is a need to evaluate the additional spending on forestry by analysing the environmental (particularly carbon abatement), social and economic benefits. The biomass needs for India are expected to increase by two to three times by 2020. Depending upon the forest types, ownership patterns and land use patterns, feasible forestry options are identified. It is found among many supply options to be feasible to meet the 'demand based needs' with a mix of management options, species choices and organisational set up. A comparative static framework is used to analyze the macro-economic impacts. Forestry accounts for 1.84% of GNP in India. It is characterized by significant forward industrial linkages and least backward linkage. Forestry generates about 36 million person years of employment annually. India imports Rs. 15 billion worth of forest based materials annually. Implementation of the demand based forestry options can lead to a number of ecological, economic and institutional changes. The notable ones are: enhancement of C stock from 9578 to 17094 Mt and a net annual C-sequestration from 73 to 149 Mt after accounting for all emissions; a trebling of the output of forestry sector from Rs. 49 billion to Rs. 146 billion annually; an increase in GDP contribution of forestry from Rs. 32 billion to Rs. 105 billion over a period of 35 years; an increase in annual employment level by 23 million person years; emergence of forestry as a net contributor of foreign exchange through trading of forestry products; and an increase in economic value of forest capital stock by Rs. 7260 billion with a cost benefit analysis showing forestry as a profitable option. Implementation of forestry options calls for an understanding of current forest policies and barriers which are analyzed and a number of policy options are suggested

  7. Modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivero, A

    1994-09-29

    This work deals with the modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems. We first present the timed-graphs as model for the real-time systems and we recall the basic notions of the analysis of real-time systems. We describe the temporal properties on the timed-graphs using TCTL formulas. We consider two methods for property verification: in one hand we study the symbolic model-checking (based on backward analysis) and in the other hand we propose a verification method derived of the construction of the simulation graph (based on forward analysis). Both methods have been implemented within the KRONOS verification tool. Their application for the automatic verification on several real-time systems confirms the practical interest of our approach. In a second part we study the hybrid systems, systems combining discrete components with continuous ones. As in the general case the analysis of this king of systems is not decidable, we identify two sub-classes of hybrid systems and we give a construction based method for the generation of a timed-graph from an element into the sub-classes. We prove that in one case the timed-graph obtained is bi-similar with the considered system and that there exists a simulation in the other case. These relationships allow the application of the described technics on the hybrid systems into the defined sub-classes. (authors). 60 refs., 43 figs., 8 tabs., 2 annexes.

  8. A Decision Support Framework for Feasibility Analysis of International Space Station (ISS) Research Capability Enhancing Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, James N.; Scott,Kelly; Smith, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The assembly and operation of the ISS has generated significant challenges that have ultimately impacted resources available to the program's primary mission: research. To address this, program personnel routinely perform trade-off studies on alternative options to enhance research. The approach, content level of analysis and resulting outputs of these studies vary due to many factors, however, complicating the Program Manager's job of selecting the best option. To address this, the program requested a framework be developed to evaluate multiple research-enhancing options in a thorough, disciplined and repeatable manner, and to identify the best option on the basis of cost, benefit and risk. The resulting framework consisted of a systematic methodology and a decision-support toolset. The framework provides quantifiable and repeatable means for ranking research-enhancing options for the complex and multiple-constraint domain of the space research laboratory. This paper describes the development, verification and validation of this framework and provides observations on its operational use.

  9. The Land Value Tax in Jamaica:An Analysis and Options for Reform

    OpenAIRE

    David L. Sjoquist

    2004-01-01

    This Working Paper on the property tax contains an Executive Summary and four chapters. In Chapter One we describe how the Jamaican property tax functions. In Chapter Two we present an analysis of various problems and issues that surround of the property tax. Chapter Three, which was co-authored with Ki-Whan Choi, presents an analysis of a land value tax versus a capital value tax. Finally, in Chapter Four we present options for reform.

  10. An Analysis of the Real Estate Property Managing Occupation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, James E.

    The general purpose of the occupational analysis is to provide workable, basic information dealing with the many and varied duties performed in the real estate property manager occupation. The document opens with a brief introduction followed by a job description. The bulk of the document is presented in table form. Eleven duties are broken down…

  11. DEVELOPMENT TOOLKIT FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS OF MOSCOW REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Yu. Yushin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the developmentdirection of the tools of the secondary realestate market analysis associated withthe identification of market. Assessment of their quality, the relationship with each other and real estate, will improve thealgorithms for identifying repetitive objectsto exclude unreliable supply of assessment activities and a new perspective onthe dynamics of the market.

  12. Resource-Parameterized Timing Analysis of Real-Time Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Jin Hyun; Legay, Axel; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2015-01-01

    on a specic platform. For the same reason, a configuration of platforms cannot be independent from applications in most cases. This paper proposes a new analysis framework of real-time systems where an application and a platform can be analyzed in a fully independent way such that not only the application...

  13. Real-time regression analysis with deep convolutional neural networks

    OpenAIRE

    Huerta, E. A.; George, Daniel; Zhao, Zhizhen; Allen, Gabrielle

    2018-01-01

    We discuss the development of novel deep learning algorithms to enable real-time regression analysis for time series data. We showcase the application of this new method with a timely case study, and then discuss the applicability of this approach to tackle similar challenges across science domains.

  14. Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kitapbayev, Yerkin; Moriarty, John; Mancarella, Pierluigi

    2014-01-01

    In district energy systems powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants, thermal storage can significantly increase CHP flexibility to respond to real time market signals and therefore improve the business case of such demand response schemes in a Smart Grid environment. However, main challenges remain as to what is the optimal way to control inter-temporal storage operation in the presence of uncertain market prices, and then how to value the investment into storage as flexibility enabler...

  15. Real analysis measure theory, integration, and Hilbert spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Stein, Elias M

    2005-01-01

    Real Analysis is the third volume in the Princeton Lectures in Analysis, a series of four textbooks that aim to present, in an integrated manner, the core areas of analysis. Here the focus is on the development of measure and integration theory, differentiation and integration, Hilbert spaces, and Hausdorff measure and fractals. This book reflects the objective of the series as a whole: to make plain the organic unity that exists between the various parts of the subject, and to illustrate the wide applicability of ideas of analysis to other fields of mathematics and science. After

  16. Policies and design elements for the repowering of wind farms: A qualitative analysis of different options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rio, Pablo del; Calvo Silvosa, Anxo; Iglesias Gomez, Guillermo

    2011-01-01

    Repowering of a wind farm is the process of replacing existing wind turbines with new turbines that either have a larger nameplate capacity or more efficiency, resulting in a net increase of the power generated. Although repowering brings, both, social and private benefits, there are also several obstacles to repowering which justify public support. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview and a qualitative analysis of instruments and design options to support repowering of on-shore wind farms. The multicriteria analysis carried out in this paper shows that all instruments have their advantages and drawbacks. However, feed-in tariffs and investment subsidies seem to be particularly appropriate instruments in this regard. Furthermore, we provide an assessment of different design options to promote repowering according to key assessment criteria. The relevance of design elements hinges on the fact that these are the ones directly affecting the variables that are relevant in the decision to repower (capacity factors and investment costs). - Research highlights: → This paper provides a qualitative analysis of instruments and design options to support repowering in wind farms. → The multicriteria analysis has shown that all instruments have their advantages and drawbacks regarding promotion of repowering. → However, feed-in tariffs and investment subsidies seem to be particularly appropriate instruments in this regard. → The choice of design elements within instruments is at least as important to promote repowering as the choice of specific instruments.

  17. Application of RELAP/SCDAPSIM with integrated uncertainty options to research reactor systems thermal hydraulic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allison, C.M.; Hohorst, J.K.; Perez, M.; Reventos, F.

    2010-01-01

    The RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 code, designed to predict the behavior of reactor systems during normal and accident conditions, is being developed as part of the international SCDAP Development and Training Program (SDTP). RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0, which is the first version of RELAP5 completely rewritten to FORTRAN 90/95/2000 standards, uses publicly available RELAP5 and SCDAP models in combination with advanced programming and numerical techniques and other SDTP-member modeling/user options. One such member developed option is an integrated uncertainty analysis package being developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and Innovative Systems Software (ISS). This paper briefly summarizes the features of RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD4.0 and the integrated uncertainty analysis package, and then presents an example of how the integrated uncertainty package can be setup and used for a simple pipe flow problem. (author)

  18. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management-The inherency risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, Aasgeir

    2009-01-01

    Current regulatory systems focus on the state of scientific evidence as the predominant factor for how to handle risks to human health and the environment. However, production and assessment of risk information are costly and time-consuming, and firms have an intrinsic disincentive to produce and distribute information about risks of their products as this could endanger their production opportunities and sales. An emphasis on more or better science may result in insufficient thought and attention going into the exploration of technology alternatives, and that risk management policies miss out on the possible achievement of a more favorable set of consequences. In this article, a method is proposed that combines risk assessment with the search for alternative technological options as a part of the risk management procedure. The method proposed is the inherency risk analysis where the first stage focuses on the original agent subject to investigation, the second stage focuses on identifying technological options whereas the third stage reviews the different alternatives, searching for the most attractive tradeoffs between costs and inherent safety. This is then used as a fundament for deciding which technology option to pursue. This method aims at providing a solution-focused, systematic technology-based approach for addressing and setting priorities for environmental problems. By combining risk assessment with a structured approach to identify superior technology options within a risk management system, the result could very well be a win-win situation for both company and the environment.

  19. Advances in real and complex analysis with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cho, Yeol; Agarwal, Praveen; Area, Iván

    2017-01-01

    This book discusses a variety of topics in mathematics and engineering as well as their applications, clearly explaining the mathematical concepts in the simplest possible way and illustrating them with a number of solved examples. The topics include real and complex analysis, special functions and analytic number theory, q-series, Ramanujan’s mathematics, fractional calculus, Clifford and harmonic analysis, graph theory, complex analysis, complex dynamical systems, complex function spaces and operator theory, geometric analysis of complex manifolds, geometric function theory, Riemannian surfaces, Teichmüller spaces and Kleinian groups, engineering applications of complex analytic methods, nonlinear analysis, inequality theory, potential theory, partial differential equations, numerical analysis , fixed-point theory, variational inequality, equilibrium problems, optimization problems, stability of functional equations, and mathematical physics.  It includes papers presented at the 24th International Confe...

  20. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission; Teoria de opcoes reais para a precificacao de contrato de permissoes de emissao de carbono

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IEE/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  1. Emergy analysis of the recycling options for construction and demolition waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Fang; Shen, Li-yin; Li, Qi-ming

    2011-12-01

    Construction and demolition (C&D) waste is becoming a major contributor to environmental pollution. In Shanghai, China, the quantity of C&D waste is 2.11E+07 t/yr, which accounts for 45% of the total quantity of solid waste. There has been a growing promotion of recycling C&D waste as an effective way to solve this waste problem. However, the evaluation of the efficiency of recycling C&D waste as a potential source of resources is largely based on traditional economic analysis. The economic analysis emphasizes money instead of the harmony between economic benefit and environmental effects. There is a need for a new strategic approach to investigate the efficiency of recycling C&D waste to achieve the integration between economic, social and environmental effects. Emergy theory can be employed to analyze different recycling options for C&D waste. With reference to the Chinese construction industry, this paper demonstrates that the close-loop recycling option is better than the open-loop recycling option for C&D waste in terms of the integration of social, environmental and sustainable aspects. To evaluate different technology solutions for C&D waste recycling, the emergy theory and method is not limited to a cost-benefit balance but can include economic, social, environmental and sustainable effects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

    2012-01-01

    on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

  3. Low-level processing for real-time image analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eskenazi, R.; Wilf, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A system that detects object outlines in television images in real time is described. A high-speed pipeline processor transforms the raw image into an edge map and a microprocessor, which is integrated into the system, clusters the edges, and represents them as chain codes. Image statistics, useful for higher level tasks such as pattern recognition, are computed by the microprocessor. Peak intensity and peak gradient values are extracted within a programmable window and are used for iris and focus control. The algorithms implemented in hardware and the pipeline processor architecture are described. The strategy for partitioning functions in the pipeline was chosen to make the implementation modular. The microprocessor interface allows flexible and adaptive control of the feature extraction process. The software algorithms for clustering edge segments, creating chain codes, and computing image statistics are also discussed. A strategy for real time image analysis that uses this system is given.

  4. Real-time analysis of water movement in plant sample

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokota, Harumi; Furukawa, Jun; Tanoi, Keitaro

    2000-01-01

    To know the effect of drought stress on two cultivars of cowpea, drought tolerant (DT) and drought sensitive (DS), and to estimate vanadium treatment on plant activity, we performed real time 18 F labeled water uptake measurement by PETIS. Fluoride-18 was produced by bombarding a cubic ice target with 50 MeV protons using TIARA AVF cyclotron. Then 18 F labeled water was applied to investigate water movement in a cowpea plant. Real time water uptake manner could be monitored by PETIS. After the analysis by PETIS, we also measured the distribution of 18 F in a whole plant by BAS. When a cowpea plant was treated with drought stress, there was a difference in water uptake manner between DT and DS cultivar. When a cowpea plant was treated with V for 20 hours before the water uptake experiment, the total amount of 18 F labeled water absorption was found to be drastically decreased. (author)

  5. Real-time analysis of water movement in plant sample

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokota, Harumi; Furukawa, Jun; Tanoi, Keitaro [Graduate School, Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    2000-07-01

    To know the effect of drought stress on two cultivars of cowpea, drought tolerant (DT) and drought sensitive (DS), and to estimate vanadium treatment on plant activity, we performed real time{sup 18}F labeled water uptake measurement by PETIS. Fluoride-18 was produced by bombarding a cubic ice target with 50 MeV protons using TIARA AVF cyclotron. Then {sup 18}F labeled water was applied to investigate water movement in a cowpea plant. Real time water uptake manner could be monitored by PETIS. After the analysis by PETIS, we also measured the distribution of {sup 18}F in a whole plant by BAS. When a cowpea plant was treated with drought stress, there was a difference in water uptake manner between DT and DS cultivar. When a cowpea plant was treated with V for 20 hours before the water uptake experiment, the total amount of {sup 18}F labeled water absorption was found to be drastically decreased. (author)

  6. Real-time breath analysis with active capillary plasma ionization-ambient mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bregy, Lukas; Sinues, Pablo Martinez-Lozano; Nudnova, Maryia M; Zenobi, Renato

    2014-06-01

    On-line analysis of exhaled human breath is a growing area in analytical science, for applications such as fast and non-invasive medical diagnosis and monitoring. In this work, we present a novel approach based on ambient ionization of compounds in breath and subsequent real-time mass spectrometric analysis. We introduce a plasma ionization source for this purpose, which has no need for additional gases, is very small, and is easily interfaced with virtually any commercial atmospheric pressure ionization mass spectrometer (API-MS) without major modifications. If an API-MS instrument exists in a laboratory, the cost to implement this technology is only around [Formula: see text]500, far less than the investment for a specialized mass spectrometric system designed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) analysis. In this proof-of-principle study we were able to measure mass spectra of exhaled human breath and found these to be comparable to spectra obtained with other electrospray-based methods. We detected over 100 VOCs, including relevant metabolites like fatty acids, with molecular weights extending up to 340 Da. In addition, we were able to monitor the time-dependent evolution of the peaks and show the enhancement of the metabolism after a meal. We conclude that this approach may complement current methods to analyze breath or other types of vapors, offering an affordable option to upgrade any pre-existing API-MS to a real-time breath analyzer.

  7. Therapeutic Success of the Ketogenic Diet as a Treatment Option for Epilepsy: a Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-feng; Zou, Yan; Ding, Gangqiang

    2013-01-01

    Objective To systematically evaluate therapeutic success of the ketogenic diet (KD) as a treatment option for epilepsy. Methods Using MEDLINE and Google Scholar search, we searched for studies investigating the therapeutic success of ketogenic diet for epilepsy. We estimated therapeutic success rate for ketogenic diet as a treatment option for epilepsy and its 95% CIs using generic inverse variance method. Findings A total of 38 studies met the inclusion criteria. In retrospective studies, the weighted success rate of the patients who take the KD as a treatment option for epilepsy was 58.4% (95% confidence interval (95%CI)=48.7% – 69.9%) at 3 months (n=336); 42.8% (95%CI =36.3% – 50.3%) at 6 months (n=492), and 30.1% (95%CI =24.3% – 37.2%) at 12 months (n=387); in prospective studies, weighted success rate was 53.9% (95%CI 45.5% – 63.8%) at 3 months (n=474); 53.2% (95%CI =44.0% – 64.2%) at 6 months (n=321), and 55.0% (95%CI =45.9% – 65.9%) at 12 months (n=347). Conclusion This meta-analysis provides formal statistical support for the efficacy of the ketogenic diet in the treatment of epileptic patients. PMID:24910737

  8. Real analysis foundations and functions of one variable

    CERN Document Server

    Laczkovich, Miklós

    2015-01-01

    Based on courses given at Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) over the past 30 years, this introductory textbook develops the central concepts of the analysis of functions of one variable - systematically, with many examples and illustrations, and in a manner that builds upon, and sharpens, the students' mathematical intuition. The modular organization of the book makes it adaptable for either semester or year-long introductory courses, while the wealth of material allows for it to be used at various levels of student sophistication in all programs where analysis is a part of the curriculum, including teachers' education. In the spirit of learning-by-doing, Real Analysis includes more than 500 engaging exercises for the student keen on mastering the basics of analysis. There are frequent hints and occasional complete solutions provided for the more challenging exercises making it an ideal choice for independent study. The book includes a solid grounding in the basics of logic and proofs, sets, and real numb...

  9. Efficient option valuation of single and double barrier options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Milev, Mariyan; Koleva-Petkova, Dessislava; Vladev, Veselin

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we present an implementation of pricing algorithm for single and double barrier options using Mellin transformation with Maximum Entropy Inversion and its suitability for real-world applications. A detailed analysis of the applied algorithm is accompanied by implementation in C++ that is then compared to existing solutions in terms of efficiency and computational power. We then compare the applied method with existing closed-form solutions and well known methods of pricing barrier options that are based on finite differences.

  10. Real Options Analysis of Renewable Energy Investment Scenarios in the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    Agaton, Casper

    2017-01-01

    Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these probl...

  11. Innovation subsidies versus consumer subsidies: A real options analysis of solar energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torani, Kiran; Rausser, Gordon; Zilberman, David

    2016-01-01

    Given the interest in the commercialization of affordable, clean energy technologies, we examine the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV). We consider the question of how to transition to a meaningful percentage of solar energy in a sustainable manner and which policies are most effective in accelerating adoption. This paper develops a stochastic dynamic model of the adoption of solar PV in the residential and commercial sector under two sources of uncertainty – the price of electricity and cost of solar. The analytic results suggest that a high rate of innovation may delay adoption of a new technology if the consumer has rational price expectations. We simulate the model across alternative rates technological change, electricity prices, subsidies and carbon taxes. It is shown that there will be a displacement of incumbent technologies and a widespread shift towards solar PV in under 30 years – and that this can occur without consumer incentives and carbon pricing. We show that these policies have a modest impact in accelerating adoption, and that they may not be an effective part of climate policy. Instead, results demonstrate that further technological change is the crucial determinant and main driver of adoption. Further, results indicate that subsidies and taxes become increasingly ineffective with higher rates of technological change. - Highlights: •Stochastic dynamic model of solar PV adoption under two sources of uncertainty. •Simulation across electricity prices, technical change, subsidies and CO_2 taxes. •Rate of technical change indicates shift to solar in 25–28 years without incentives. •Modest impact of consumer subsidies and CO_2 taxes (up to $150/ton CO_2) in adoption. •R&D support/further technological change is the main driver of adoption of solar.

  12. GNSS global real-time augmentation positioning: Real-time precise satellite clock estimation, prototype system construction and performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang

    2018-01-01

    Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm

  13. Real analysis series, functions of several variables, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Laczkovich, Miklós

    2017-01-01

    This book develops the theory of multivariable analysis, building on the single variable foundations established in the companion volume, Real Analysis: Foundations and Functions of One Variable. Together, these volumes form the first English edition of the popular Hungarian original, Valós Analízis I & II, based on courses taught by the authors at Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary, for more than 30 years. Numerous exercises are included throughout, offering ample opportunities to master topics by progressing from routine to difficult problems. Hints or solutions to many of the more challenging exercises make this book ideal for independent study, or further reading. Intended as a sequel to a course in single variable analysis, this book builds upon and expands these ideas into higher dimensions. The modular organization makes this text adaptable for either a semester or year-long introductory course. Topics include: differentiation and integration of functions of several variables; infinite numerica...

  14. Analysis of the options - rationale for servomanipulator maintenance in future reprocessing plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herndon, J.N.; Hamel, W.R.

    1984-04-01

    The currently available maintenance systems which can be applied, in various combinations, to large-volume in-cell maintenance operations are: (1) contact, (2) overhead cranes, (3) power manipulators, (4) mechanical master/slave manipulators, and (5) servomanipulators. The requirements for reprocessing plant maintenance are reviewed, and the capabilities of remote maintenance systems are described. A basic trade-off analysis of these remote maintenance systems considering reprocessing plant requirements is given. Justification is given for selecting the overhead crane/servomanipulator-based maintenance concept as the option most desirable for future large reprocessing plant maintenance. 23 references, 6 tables

  15. Staging Options for the Air Force’s Electronic Combat Test Capability: a Cost Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    strategic in nature and completely different than daily operating decisions (20:6). Horngren , in his book Cost Accounting : A Managerial Emphasis...AFIT/GCA/LSY/90S-3 DTTC S E-191 J) C, STAGING OPTIONS FOR THE AIR FORCE’S ELECTRONIC COMBAT TEST CAPABILITY: A COST ANALYSIS THESIS Joseph J. Landino...Alternative Costs ......... 56 v AFIT/GCA/LSY/90S-3 Abstract This study’s purpose was to identify the lowest cost aircraft staging base( s ) for the Air

  16. ACCIDENT ANALYSES & CONTROL OPTIONS IN SUPPORT OF THE SLUDGE WATER SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WILLIAMS, J.C.

    2003-11-15

    This report documents the accident analyses and nuclear safety control options for use in Revision 7 of HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062, ''K Basins Safety Analysis Report'' and Revision 4 of HNF-SD-SNF-TSR-001, ''Technical Safety Requirements - 100 KE and 100 KW Fuel Storage Basins''. These documents will define the authorization basis for Sludge Water System (SWS) operations. This report follows the guidance of DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports'', for calculating onsite and offsite consequences. The accident analysis summary is shown in Table ES-1 below. While this document describes and discusses potential control options to either mitigate or prevent the accidents discussed herein, it should be made clear that the final control selection for any accident is determined and presented in HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062.

  17. Communications data delivery system analysis task 2 report : high-level options for secure communications data delivery systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-16

    This Communications Data Delivery System Analysis Task 2 report describes and analyzes options for Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) communications data delivery systems using various communication media (Dedicated Short Ra...

  18. Dynamic performances analysis of a real vehicle driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, M. A.; Jamil, J. F.; Salim, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Vehicle dynamic is the effects of movement of a vehicle generated from the acceleration, braking, ride and handling activities. The dynamic behaviours are determined by the forces from tire, gravity and aerodynamic which acting on the vehicle. This paper emphasizes the analysis of vehicle dynamic performance of a real vehicle. Real driving experiment on the vehicle is conducted to determine the effect of vehicle based on roll, pitch, and yaw, longitudinal, lateral and vertical acceleration. The experiment is done using the accelerometer to record the reading of the vehicle dynamic performance when the vehicle is driven on the road. The experiment starts with weighing a car model to get the center of gravity (COG) to place the accelerometer sensor for data acquisition (DAQ). The COG of the vehicle is determined by using the weight of the vehicle. A rural route is set to launch the experiment and the road conditions are determined for the test. The dynamic performance of the vehicle are depends on the road conditions and driving maneuver. The stability of a vehicle can be controlled by the dynamic performance analysis.

  19. Measure and integral an introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Wheeden, Richard L

    2015-01-01

    Now considered a classic text on the topic, Measure and Integral: An Introduction to Real Analysis provides an introduction to real analysis by first developing the theory of measure and integration in the simple setting of Euclidean space, and then presenting a more general treatment based on abstract notions characterized by axioms and with less geometric content.Published nearly forty years after the first edition, this long-awaited Second Edition also:Studies the Fourier transform of functions in the spaces L1, L2, and Lp, 1 p Shows the Hilbert transform to be a bounded operator on L2, as an application of the L2 theory of the Fourier transform in the one-dimensional caseCovers fractional integration and some topics related to mean oscillation properties of functions, such as the classes of Hölder continuous functions and the space of functions of bounded mean oscillationDerives a subrepresentation formula, which in higher dimensions plays a role roughly similar to the one played by the fundamental theor...

  20. Numerical analysis of rapid drawdown: Applications in real cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo E. Alonso

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, rapid drawdown scenarios were analyzed by means of numerical examples as well as modeling of real cases with in situ measurements. The aim of the study was to evaluate different approaches available for calculating pore water pressure distributions during and after a drawdown. To do that, a single slope subjected to a drawdown was first analyzed under different calculation alternatives, and numerical results were discussed. Simple methods, such as undrained analysis and pure flow analysis, implicitly assuming a rigid soil skeleton, lead to significant errors in pore water pressure distributions when compared with coupled flow-deformation analysis. A similar analysis was performed for the upstream slope of the Glen Shira Dam, Scotland, and numerical results were compared with field measurements during a controlled drawdown. Field records indicate that classical undrained calculations are conservative but unrealistic. Then, a recent case of a major landslide triggered by a rapid drawdown in a reservoir was interpreted. A key aspect of the case was the correct characterization of permeability of a representative soil profile. This was achieved by combining laboratory test results and a back analysis of pore water pressure time records during a period of reservoir water level fluctuations. The results highlight the difficulty of predicting whether the pore water pressure is overestimated or underestimated when using simplified approaches, and it is concluded that predicting the pore water pressure distribution in a slope after a rapid drawdown requires a coupled flow-deformation analysis in saturated and unsaturated porous media.

  1. Portable real time analysis system for regional cerebral blood flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiernan, T.; Entine, G.; Stump, D.A.; Prough, D.S.

    1988-01-01

    A very portable, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) analysis instrument system suitable for use in the operating theater during surgery is under development. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) solid state radiation detectors, an 8086 based data acquisition and communications module and a DEC Microvax computer are used so that the instrument is very compact, yet has the computational power to provide real time data analysis in the clinical environment. The instrument is currently being used at Bowman Gray School of Medicine to study rCBF during cardiopulmonary bypass surgery (CPB). Preliminary studies indicate that monitoring rCBF during this surgical procedure may provide insights into the mechanism that causes a significant fraction of these patients to suffer post operative neuropsychological deficit

  2. Real-time analysis of nitrogen translocation in plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Hiroaki

    2000-01-01

    Nitrogen absorbed by roots is transported to the leaves through xylem vessels and then retranslocated to the new leaves, such as root and storage organs through sieve tubes. It is very important to know how this nitrogen movement occurs in the plants and what mechanisms are involved in controlling this movement in order to increase the efficiency of fertilizer. In this experiments, 13 N and 15 N was used to detect the nitrogen circulation in plants, in combination with the technique for positron detection in real time and for collection of sap in sieve tubes and analysis of 15 N in it. By using 13 N, nitrogen movement from root to shoot was analyzed within 10 min after 13 N was applied to the roots. On the other hand, nitrogen retranslocation through sieve tubes was detected by the analysis of 15 N in the phloem sap over 6 hrs. All data suggest the dynamic translocation of nitrogen in rice plants. (author)

  3. VALORACIÓN DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO (CFAR EN LAS EPS A TRAVÉS DE OPCIONES REALES: UNA APLICACIÓN AL NIVEL DE ATENCIÓN IV Financial Risk Valuation (CFARin EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica A. Arango Arango

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available El número de pacientes tratados por insuficiencia renal en Colombia es cada vez mayor; por esta razón conocer los costos asociados a esta enfermedad es una necesidad manifiesta de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud con el fin de garantizar la estabilidad del Sistema de Seguridad Social en Salud. Este trabajo evalúa financieramente, mediante opciones reales, la posibilidad de hacer un trasplante de riñón en un paciente bajo tratamiento de insuficiencia renal y el Flujo de Caja en Riesgo al tener en cuenta esta opción. Se encontró que al hacer un análisis periódico de los costos asociados a continuar con el tratamiento, existen casos en los que es más eficiente hacer el trasplante, disminuyendo el valor presente de las erogaciones del paciente, mejorando el flujo de caja en riesgo y controlando los gastos futuros de la entidad que lo atiende.Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

  4. Benefit/cost analysis of plutonium recycle options in the United States of America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowenberg, H.; Burnham, J.B.; Fisher, F.D.; Ray, W.H.

    1977-01-01

    Beginning in 1973, the USAEC started the analysis of the benefit/cost balance of Pu recycling in light-water reactors and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has continued this effort to the present time. A study of the United States nuclear industry from 1975 until 2000 was summarized in a final environmental statement called GESMO - Generic Environmental Statement on Mixed Oxide, NUREG-0002. Cumulative environmental and economic effects for several industry growth patterns were determined. Five alternatives were evaluated, covering the basic options of recycling uranium and plutonium; recycling uranium; and no recycling. The NRC findings, excluding consideration of proliferation and safeguards questions, are: the safety of reactors and fuel-cycle facilities are not significantly affected by recycle; excluding consideration of radiological effects, the environmental effects of recycle are slightly less than those from a non-recycle system; plutonium recycling extends uranium resources and reduces environmental impacts at the same time requiring reprocessing and Pu-handling facilities; despite uncertainties, recycling has probable economic advantages over other fuel concepts; differences in health effects attributable to recycling provide no basis for selecting a particular fuel-cycle option; no waste-management considerations appear that could be a basis for the selection of any particular option. The NRC studies on health, safety and environmental considerations of Pu recycling in the United States of America show that the differences in benefits/costs between the alternative fuel cycles are small and hence do not provide a clear basis for a decision on Pu recycle at this time. Safeguards and international proliferation implications appear to be the controlling factors in reaching a decision. President Carter's statement indefinitely deferring reprocessing and Pu recycle in the United States of America has resulted in a re-evaluation by NRC of its programme to

  5. Environmental analysis of closure options for waste sites at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gordon, D.E.; King, C.M.; Looney, B.B.; Stephenson, D.E.; Johnson, W.F.

    1987-01-01

    Previously acceptable waste management practices (e.g., the use of unlined seepage basins) for discarding of wastes from nuclear materials production has resulted in occasional cases of groundwater contamination beneath some disposal sites, mainly in water-table aquifers. Groundwater contaminants include volatile organic compounds, heavy metals, radionuclides, and other chemicals. The closure of active and inactive waste sites that have received hazardous and/or low-level radioactive materials at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) is planned as part of an overall program to protect groundwater quality. DOE developed and submitted to Congress a groundwater protection plan for SRP. This initial plan and subsequent revisions provide the basis for closure of SRP waste sites to comply with applicable groundwater protection requirements. An environmental analysis of the closure options for the criteria waste sites that have received hazardous and/or low-level radioactive wastes was conducted to provide technical support. The several parts of this environmental analysis include description of geohydrologic conditions; determination of waste inventories; definition of closure options; modeling of environmental pathways; assessment of risk; and analysis of project costs. Each of these components of the overall analysis is described in turn in the following paragraphs. Production operations at SRP have generated a variety of solid, hazardous, and low-level radioactive waste materials. Several locations onplant have been used as waste disposal sites for solid and liquid wastes. Seventy-six individual waste sites at 45 distinct geographical locations on SRP have received hazardous, low-level radioactive, or mixed wastes. These waste sites can be categorized into 26 groupings according to the function of the waste disposed. 15 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  6. Implementation and Analysis of Real-Time Streaming Protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-González, Iván; Rivero-García, Alexandra; Molina-Gil, Jezabel; Caballero-Gil, Pino

    2017-04-12

    Communication media have become the primary way of interaction thanks to the discovery and innovation of many new technologies. One of the most widely used communication systems today is video streaming, which is constantly evolving. Such communications are a good alternative to face-to-face meetings, and are therefore very useful for coping with many problems caused by distance. However, they suffer from different issues such as bandwidth limitation, network congestion, energy efficiency, cost, reliability and connectivity. Hence, the quality of service and the quality of experience are considered the two most important issues for this type of communication. This work presents a complete comparative study of two of the most used protocols of video streaming, Real Time Streaming Protocol (RTSP) and the Web Real-Time Communication (WebRTC). In addition, this paper proposes two new mobile applications that implement those protocols in Android whose objective is to know how they are influenced by the aspects that most affect the streaming quality of service, which are the connection establishment time and the stream reception time. The new video streaming applications are also compared with the most popular video streaming applications for Android, and the experimental results of the analysis show that the developed WebRTC implementation improves the performance of the most popular video streaming applications with respect to the stream packet delay.

  7. An analysis of the economic impact of non-pipeline options for developing Newfoundland's offshore natural gas resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, W.; Millan, S.; Rodgers, B.

    2001-06-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of four non-pipeline development options for Newfoundland's offshore natural gas resources are examined. The options are: compressed natural gas (CNG) that is incremental to FPSO oil development (CNG FPSO Incremental); CNG as part of a Grand Bank System Gas Hub( CNG GBS Gas Hub); liquefied natural gas (LNG) that is incremental to FPSO oil development (LNG FPSO Incremental) and combined Fischer-Tropsch (gas-to-liquid technology) that is incremental to FPSO oil development (combined methanol/F-T). The economic impacts of each development option were considered in terms of project viability, employment and income impacts created through the supply of goods and services, employment effects resulting from project expenditures, incomes generated to Newfoundland factors of production, GDP impacts, and provincial treasury impacts, net of equalization losses. Results indicate that the largest employment and income impacts on the Newfoundland economy would be generated by the CNG GBS Gas Hub option (2,000 person-years of employment per year and $110 million income annually). The other three cases provide an equivalent level of benefits with an annual average of 1,650 person-years of employment and $90 million in incomes to business and labour. Each option is expected to generate between $16 and $21 million per annum to the Newfoundland treasury, net of equalization losses. GDP impacts are also close for all all four options, and provide no basis for preference of any option. In terms of project viability, the CNG FPSO Incremental option is considered by far the most attractive with a 33.7 per cent rate of return and a net present value of $1 billion, followed by the CNG GBS Gas Hub option at 18.3 per cent rate of return and a net present value of $317 million. The LNG FPSO incremental option has an internal rate of return of 17.8 per cent and a net present value of $263 million. The combined methanol/F-T option is not considered

  8. 1992 Columbia River Salmon Flow Measures Options Analysis/EIS : Appendices.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-01-01

    This Options Analysis/Environmental Impact Statement (OA/EIS) identifies, presents effects of, and evaluates the potential options for changing instream flow levels in efforts to increase salmon populations in the lower Columbia and Snake rivers. The potential actions would be implemented during 1992 to benefit juvenile and adult salmon during migration through eight run-of-river reservoirs. The Corps of Engineers (Corps) prepared this document in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is a participating agency. The text and appendices of the document describe the characteristics of 10 Federal projects and one private water development project in the Columbia River drainage basin. Present and potential operation of these projects and their effects on the salmon that spawn and rear in the Columbia and Snake River System are presented. The life history, status, and response of Pacific salmon to current environmental conditions are described. The document concludes with an evaluation of the potential effects that could result from implementing proposed actions. The conclusions are based on evaluation of existing data, utilization of numerical models, and application of logical inference. This volume contains the appendices.

  9. 1992 Columbia River salmon flow measures Options Analysis/EIS: Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This Options Analysis/Environmental Impact Statement (OA/EIS) identifies, presents effects of, and evaluates the potential options for changing instream flow levels in efforts to increase salmon populations in the lower Columbia and Snake rivers. The potential actions would be implemented during 1992 to benefit juvenile and adult salmon during migration through eight run-of-river reservoirs. The Corps of Engineers (Corps) prepared this document in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is a participating agency. The text and appendices of the document describe the characteristics of 10 Federal projects and one private water development project in the Columbia River drainage basin. Present and potential operation of these projects and their effects on the salmon that spawn and rear in the Columbia and Snake River System are presented. The life history, status, and response of Pacific salmon to current environmental conditions are described. The document concludes with an evaluation of the potential effects that could result from implementing proposed actions. The conclusions are based on evaluation of existing data, utilization of numerical models, and application of logical inference. This volume contains the appendices

  10. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED OPTIONS OF STRAW USE DEPENDING ON HARVESTING TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukasz KUTA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Post-harvest straw deserves particular attention among agricultural raw materials. It can be intended for sale, applied as litter material in animal husbandry or used in field fertilization. To a lesser extent it can be used for fodder production, covering mounds of roots and tubers and the production of insulation materials in horticulture and building construction. Using surplus straw directly for energy generation, including production of pellets and briquettes, should also be considered rational. Several applications were analyzed. The main purpose of the research is to determine the profitability level of winter wheat cultivation and of energy use of the straw obtained. Among others, they included situations in which obtained straw was used in the production of pellets, in fertilization after prior grinding and mixing with manure or used for direct sale. For our calculations, the costs/ha of wheat cultivation and then straw collection were estimated. The comparative analysis of various options of wheat straw utilization shows the highest profitability in the option of selling the straw and mineral fertilization.

  11. Petroleomics by Direct Analysis in Real Time-Mass Spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romão, Wanderson; Tose, Lilian V; Vaz, Boniek G; Sama, Sara G; Lobinski, Ryszard; Giusti, Pierre; Carrier, Hervé; Bouyssiere, Brice

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of crude oil and its fractions by applying ambient ionization techniques remains underexplored in mass spectrometry (MS). Direct analysis in real time (DART) in the positive-ion mode was coupled to a linear quadrupole ion trap Orbitrap mass spectrometer (LTQ Orbitrap) to analyze crude oil, paraffin samples, and porphyrin standard compounds. The ionization parameters of DART-MS were optimized for crude oil analysis. DART-MS rendered the optimum conditions of the operation using paper as the substrate, T = 400°C, helium as the carrier gas, and a sample concentration ≥6 mg mL(-1). In the crude oils analysis, the DART(+)-Orbitrap mass spectra detected the typical N, NO, and O-containing compounds. In the paraffin samples, oxidized hydrocarbon species (Ox classes, where x = 1-4) with double-bond equivalent of 1-4 were detected, and their structures and connectivity were confirmed by collision-induced dissociation (CID) experiments. DART(+)-MS has identified the porphyrin standard compounds as [M + H](+) ions of m/z 615.2502 and 680.1763, where M = C44H30N4 and C44H28N4OV, respectively, based on the formula assignment and by phenyl losses observed on CID experiments.

  12. Policy options to improve the effectiveness of the EU emissions trading system: A multi-criteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clò, Stefano; Battles, Susan; Zoppoli, Pietro

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers several policy options which have been proposed to improve the functioning of the ETS. These options require an intervention either on the ETS cap (−30% target, set-aside, carbon central bank, long-term target) or on the carbon price (European and national price floor). We analyse the impact of each policy on the ETS carbon price and emissions. A multi-criteria evaluation method is applied to compare the policy options against a plurality of environmental, economic and procedural criteria. We find that the final ranking depends on the goals to be achieved, i.e., the relative weights attributed to the criteria. When policymakers want mainly to support the carbon price both in the short and long-run, while improving ETS flexibility and harmonization, the CCB and the EU price floor are, respectively ranked as first and second-best options. As the preference for environmental and implementation goals gradually increases, the position of the EU price floor and CCB options tend to invert. The −30% target should be adopted when reducing emissions is the priority goal, while a national price floor is the worst option, in this case. Nevertheless, self-interested States looking for a relatively quick, feasible solution, may find it optimal. - Highlights: ► A multi-criteria analysis is adopted to compare policy options to improve the ETS effectiveness. ► An ETS cap reversible adjustment by a carbon central bank is the first-best option. ► The establishment of a EU-wide price floor would represent a second-best solution. ► A national price floor is the worst option but self-interest states may find it optimal. ► A post-2020 target is not a mutually exclusive option and should be set

  13. Quantitative Evaluation of Biologic Therapy Options for Psoriasis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbar-Lopez, Zarif K; Yiu, Zenas Z N; Ward, Victoria; Exton, Lesley S; Mohd Mustapa, M Firouz; Samarasekera, Eleanor; Burden, A David; Murphy, Ruth; Owen, Caroline M; Parslew, Richard; Venning, Vanessa; Warren, Richard B; Smith, Catherine H

    2017-08-01

    Multiple biologic treatments are licensed for psoriasis. The lack of head-to-head randomized controlled trials makes choosing between them difficult for patients, clinicians, and guideline developers. To establish their relative efficacy and tolerability, we searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for randomized controlled trials of licensed biologic treatments for skin psoriasis. We performed a network meta-analysis to identify direct and indirect evidence comparing biologics with one another, methotrexate, or placebo. We combined this with hierarchical cluster analysis to consider multiple outcomes related to efficacy and tolerability in combination for each treatment. Study quality, heterogeneity, and inconsistency were evaluated. Direct comparisons from 41 randomized controlled trials (20,561 participants) were included. All included biologics were efficacious compared with placebo or methotrexate at 3-4 months. Overall, cluster analysis showed adalimumab, secukinumab, and ustekinumab were comparable in terms of high efficacy and tolerability. Ixekizumab and infliximab were differentiated by very high efficacy but poorer tolerability. The lack of longer term controlled data limited our analysis to short-term outcomes. Trial performance may not equate to real-world performance, and so results need to be considered alongside real-world, long-term safety and effectiveness data. These data suggest that it is possible to discriminate between biologics to inform clinical practice and decision making (PROSPERO 2015:CRD42015017538). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. ClockWork: a Real-Time Feasibility Analysis Tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, P.G.; Hanssen, F.T.Y.; Mullender, Sape J.

    ClockWork shows that we can improve the flexibility and efficiency of real-time kernels. We do this by proposing methods for scheduling based on so-called Real-Time Transactions. ClockWork uses Real-Time Transactions which allow scheduling decisions to be taken by the system. A programmer does not

  15. Economic potential of fuel recycling options: A lifecycle cost analysis of future nuclear system transition in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, Ruxing; Choi, Sungyeol; Il Ko, Won; Kim, Sungki

    2017-01-01

    In today's profit-driven market, how best to pursue advanced nuclear fuel cycle technologies while maintaining the cost competitiveness of nuclear electricity is of crucial importance to determine the implementation of spent fuel reprocessing and recycling in China. In this study, a comprehensive techno-economic analysis is undertaken to evaluate the economic feasibility of ongoing national projects and the technical compatibility with China's future fuel cycle transition. We investigated the dynamic impacts of technical and economic uncertainties in the lifecycle of a nuclear system. The electricity generation costs associated with four potential fuel cycle transition scenarios were simulated by probabilistic and deterministic approaches and then compared in detail. The results showed that the total cost of a once-through system is lowest compared those of other advanced systems involving reprocessing and recycling. However, thanks to the consequential uncertainties caused by the further progress toward technology maturity, the economic potential of fuel recycling options was proven through a probabilistic uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, it is recommended that a compulsory executive of closed fuel cycle policy would pose some investment risk in the near term, though the execution of a series of R&D initiatives with a flexible roadmap would be valuable in the long run. - Highlights: • Real-time economic performance of the four scenarios of China's nuclear fuel cycle system transition until 2100. • Systematic assessments of techno-economic feasibility for ongoing national reprocessing projects. • Investigation the cost impact on nuclear electricity generation caused by uncertainties through probabilistic analysis. • Recommendation for sustainable implementation of fuel cycle R&D initiative ingrate with flexible roadmap in the long run.

  16. Energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, Michael

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on energy options as a means of managing exposure to energy prices. An intuitive approach to energy options is presented, and traditional definitions of call and put options are given. The relationship between options and swaps, option value and option exercises, commodity options, and option pricing are described. An end-user's guide to energy option strategy is outlined, and straight options, collars, participating swaps and collars, bull and bear spreads, and swaption are examined. Panels explaining the defining of basis risk, and discussing option pricing and the Greeks, delta hedging, managing oil options using the Black-Scholes model, caps, floors and collars, and guidelines on hedging versus speculation with options are included in the paper

  17. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case......Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused...

  18. Life-cycle cost analysis of energy efficiency design options for residential furnaces and boilers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lutz, J.; Lekov, A.; Chan, P.; Dunham Whitehead, C.; Meyers, S.; McMahon, J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Energy Technologies Div.

    2006-03-01

    In 2001, the US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a rulemaking process to consider whether to amend the existing energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers. A key factor in DOE's consideration of new standards is the economic impacts on consumers of possible revisions to energy-efficiency standards. Determining cost-effectiveness requires an appropriate comparison of the additional first cost of energy efficiency design options with the savings in operating costs. DOE's preferred approach involves comparing the total life-cycle cost (LCC) of owning and operating a more efficient appliance with the LCC for a baseline design. This study describes the method used to conduct the LCC analysis and presents the estimated change in LCC associated with more energy-efficient equipment. The results indicate that efficiency improvement relative to the baseline design can reduce the LCC in each of the product classes considered. (author)

  19. Canonical Least-Squares Monte Carlo Valuation of American Options: Convergence and Empirical Pricing Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xisheng Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper by Liu (2010 introduces a method termed the canonical least-squares Monte Carlo (CLM which combines a martingale-constrained entropy model and a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to price American options. In this paper, we first provide the convergence results of CLM and numerically examine the convergence properties. Then, the comparative analysis is empirically conducted using a large sample of the S&P 100 Index (OEX puts and IBM puts. The results on the convergence show that choosing the shifted Legendre polynomials with four regressors is more appropriate considering the pricing accuracy and the computational cost. With this choice, CLM method is empirically demonstrated to be superior to the benchmark methods of binominal tree and finite difference with historical volatilities.

  20. Life-cycle cost analysis of energy efficiency design options for residential furnaces and boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, James; Lekov, Alex; Chan, Peter; Whitehead, Camilla Dunham; Meyers, Steve; McMahon, James

    2006-01-01

    In 2001, the US Department of Energy (DOE) initiated a rulemaking process to consider whether to amend the existing energy efficiency standards for furnaces and boilers. A key factor in DOE's consideration of new standards is the economic impacts on consumers of possible revisions to energy-efficiency standards. Determining cost-effectiveness requires an appropriate comparison of the additional first cost of energy efficiency design options with the savings in operating costs. DOE's preferred approach involves comparing the total life-cycle cost (LCC) of owning and operating a more efficient appliance with the LCC for a baseline design. This study describes the method used to conduct the LCC analysis and presents the estimated change in LCC associated with more energy-efficient equipment. The results indicate that efficiency improvement relative to the baseline design can reduce the LCC in each of the product classes considered

  1. A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

    2015-01-01

    We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

  2. Neutronic Analysis on Coolant Options in a Hybrid Reactor System for High Level Waste Transmutation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Seong Hee; Kim, Myung Hyun [Kyung Hee University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    A fusion-fission hybrid reactor (FFHR) which is a combination of plasma fusion tokamak as a fast neutron source and a fission reactor as of fusion blanket is another potential candidate. In FFHR, fusion plasma machine can supply high neutron-rich and energetic 14.1MeV (D, T) neutrons compared to other options. Therefore it has better capability in HLW incineration. While, it has lower requirements compared to pure fusion. Much smaller-sized tokamak can be achievable in a near term because it needs relatively low plasma condition. FFHR has also higher safety potential than fast reactors just as ADSR because it is subcritical reactor system. FFHR proposed up to this time has many design concepts depending on the design purpose. FFHR may also satisfy many design requirement such as energy multiplication, tritium production, radiation shielding for magnets, fissile breeding for self-sustain ability also waste transmutation. Many types of fuel compositions and coolant options have been studied. Effect of choices for fuel and coolant was studied for the transmutation purpose FFHR by our team. In this study LiPb coolant was better than pure Li coolant both for neutron multiplication and tritium breeding. However, performance of waste transmutation was reduced with increased neutron absorption at coolant caused by tritium breeding. Also, LiPb as metal coolant has a problem of massive MHD pressure drop in coolant channels. Therefore, in a previous study, waste transmutation performance was evaluated with light water coolant option which may be a realistic choice. In this study, a neutronic analysis was done for the various coolant options with a detailed computation. One of solutions suggested is to use the pressure tubes inside of first wall and second wall In this work, performance of radioactive waste transmutation was compared with various coolant options. On the whole, keff increases with all coolants except for FLiBe, therefore required fusion power is decreased. In

  3. Exploring Valid Reference Genes for Quantitative Real-time PCR Analysis in Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Wei; Xie, Wen; Zhang, Zhuo; Wang, Shaoli; Wu, Qingjun; Liu, Yong; Zhou, Xiaomao; Zhou, Xuguo; Zhang, Youjun

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR), a primary tool in gene expression analysis, requires an appropriate normalization strategy to control for variation among samples. The best option is to compare the mRNA level of a target gene with that of reference gene(s) whose expression level is stable across various experimental conditions. In this study, expression profiles of eight candidate reference genes from the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, were evaluated under diverse experimental conditions. RefFinder, a web-based analysis tool, integrates four major computational programs including geNorm, Normfinder, BestKeeper, and the comparative ΔCt method to comprehensively rank the tested candidate genes. Elongation factor 1 (EF1) was the most suited reference gene for the biotic factors (development stage, tissue, and strain). In contrast, although appropriate reference gene(s) do exist for several abiotic factors (temperature, photoperiod, insecticide, and mechanical injury), we were not able to identify a single universal reference gene. Nevertheless, a suite of candidate reference genes were specifically recommended for selected experimental conditions. Our finding is the first step toward establishing a standardized qRT-PCR analysis of this agriculturally important insect pest. PMID:23983612

  4. Assessment of alternative fuel and powertrain transit bus options using real-world operations data: Life-cycle fuel and emissions modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yanzhi; Gbologah, Franklin E.; Lee, Dong-Yeon; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall L.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a practical fuel and emissions modeling tool for alternative fuel buses. • The model assesses well-to-wheels emissions impacts of bus fleet decisions. • Mode-based approach is used to account for duty cycles and local conditions. • A case study using real-world operations data from Atlanta, GA is presented. • Impacts of alternative bus options depend on operating and geographic features. - Abstract: Hybrid and electric powertrains and alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas (CNG), biodiesel, or hydrogen) can often reduce energy consumption and emissions from transit bus operations relative to conventional diesel. However, the magnitude of these energy and emissions savings can vary significantly, due to local conditions and transit operating characteristics. This paper introduces the transit Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC), a mode-based life-cycle emissions modeling tool for transit bus and rail technologies that compares the performance of multiple alternative fuels and powertrains across a range of operational characteristics and conditions. The purpose of the FEC is to provide a practical, yet technically sophisticated tool for regulatory agencies and policy analysts in assessing transit fleet options. The FEC’s modal modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of transit service parameters, including duty cycle (idling and speed-acceleration profile), road grade, and passenger loading. This approach allows for customized assessments that account for local conditions. Direct emissions estimates are derived from the scaled tractive power (STP) operating mode bins and emissions factors employed in the U.S. EPA’s MOVES (MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. Life-cycle emissions estimates are calculated using emissions factors from the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model. The case study presented in this paper

  5. Valuing and timing R and D using a real options pricing framework; including an application to the development of Lunar Helium-3 fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, S.H.

    1992-01-01

    This dissertation uses the real options framework to study the valuation and optimal investment policies for R and D projects. The models developed integrate and extend the literature by taking into account the unique characteristics of such projects including uncertain investment in R and D, time-to-build, and multiple investment opportunities. The models were developed to examine the optimal R and D investment policy for the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project but have general applicability. Models are development which model R and D investment as an information gathering process where R and D investment remaining changes as investment is expended. The value of the project increased as the variance of required investment increases. An extension of this model combines a stochastic benefit with stochastic investment. Both the value of the R and D project and the region prescribing continued investment increased. The policy implications are significant: When uncertainty of R and D investment is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment in R and D will result; the existence of uncertainty in R and D investment will cause R and D projects to experience larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment. The model combining stochastic investment with the stochastic benefit is applied to the Lunar Helium-3 fusion project. Investment in fusion should continue at the maximum level of $1 billion annually given current levels of costs of alternative fuels and the perceived uncertainty of R and D investment in the project. A model is developed to examine the valuation and optimal split of funding between R and D projects when there are two competing new technologies. Without interaction between research expenditures and benefits across technologies, the optimal investment strategy is to invest in one or the other technology or neither. The multiple technology model is applied to analyze competing R and D projects, namely

  6. Real time physics analysis with the ATLAS tau trigger system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casado Lechuga, M. P.

    2009-01-01

    The scope of the ATLAS tau trigger system at the LHC is most ambitious. It aims at reconstructing in real time, a matter of seconds, a detailed picture of the high energy proton proton collisions at the LHC. Such system is mandatory in order to select efficiently data needed for discovery of new physics in a proton proton collision environment where the rates of jets observed in the detector are high and the tau identification is difficult. New physics scenarios targeted specifically by the the ATLAS tau trigger system are Standard Model or Supersymmetric Higgs production, and production of new exotic resonances. This contribution will detail how the analysis techniques developed offline for efficient data analysis have been implemented in the algorithms which run online at the trigger. In particular, the focus will be on how to satisfy the requirements imposed by the physics goals while addressing the limitations from the overall event rate and latency allowed. The prospects for early running during the first LHC collisions and trigger evolution from first collisions to stable running will be also summarized, following change of trigger goals from commissioning of detector to measurement of Standard Model physics and discoveries. (author)

  7. A Study on the Economic Analysis for Overseas Project of New Nuclear Power Plant Using Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.

  8. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  9. Analysis of Nuclear Option in Planning on Java Bali Integrated Electricity System By Using Message Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masdin; Sudi-Ariyanto; Nuryanti

    2004-01-01

    The growth of national energy demand in the future still become a great challenge for energy supply sector in Indonesia. The current energy supply strategy focuses the development and diversification of all energy options including fossil fuel, renewable energy and nuclear energy. Based on the Comprehensive Assessment Of Different Energy Source For Electricity Demand Study (CADES), final energy demand will grow from 4,065 PJ in 2000 to about 8,200 PJ in 2025. In this paper, the analysis of national energy system network will be divided into 2 regions, namely Java Bali region and Outside Java Bali region. Period of time horizon chosen in this study is 25 years (2000 to 2025). Simulation of network system configuration based on minimum objective function criteria was done by using MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) computer program. The focus of the analysis in this paper is simulation of electricity planning sector for Java Bali region. The result of simulation shows that for scenarios with no limitation on all fuel for power plant, scenario where fuel oil as constant supply for power plant and also configuration with limitation on gas supply, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) does not appear during the study period using cost parameter set in this study. If there are limitations on gas supply and constrains of emissions (SO 2 and CO 2 ) due to coal combustion, NPP would become competitive and appear at about year 2015. (author)

  10. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jallow, B.P.

    1996-12-31

    Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

  11. Techno-economical Analysis of High Level Waste Storage and Disposal Options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bace, M.; Trontl, K.; Vrankic, K.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming and instability of gas and oil prices are redefining the role of nuclear energy in electrical energy production. A production of high-level radioactive waste (HLW), during the nuclear power plant operation and a danger of high level waste mitigation to the environment are considered by the public as a main obstacle of accepting the nuclear option. As economical and technical aspects of the back end of fuel cycle will affect the nuclear energy acceptance the techno-economical analysis of different methods for high level waste storage and disposal has to be performed. The aim of this paper is to present technical and economical characteristics of different HLW storage and disposal technologies. The final choice of a particular HLW management method is closely connected to the selection of a fuel cycle type: open or closed. Wet and dry temporary storage has been analyzed including different types of spent fuel pool capacity increase methods, different pool location (at reactor site and away from reactor site) as well as casks and vault system of dry storage. Since deep geological deposition is the only disposal method with a realistic potential, we focused our attention on that disposal technology. Special attention has been given to the new idea of international and regional disposal location. The analysis showed that a coexistence of different storage methods and deep geological deposition is expected in the future, regardless of the fuel cycle type. (author)

  12. Long term energy system analysis of Japan based on 'options for energy and environment' by the energy and environmental council

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagiwara, Naoto; Kurosawa, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    Implications to Japanese energy system are discussed especially in terms of primary energy supply and power generation portfolio, using sensitivity analysis results by an optimization type energy model based on TIMES modeling framework. We updated energy service demand, efficiency in energy conversion and consumption, and power generation costs based on the recent energy policy document called 'Options for Energy and Environment'. The time horizon of the model is 2050. The sensitivity analysis results are presented for 'Three scenarios for 2030' including nuclear phase out scenarios with/without CO 2 emission constraint. The results are compared with 'Options for Energy and Environment'. (author)

  13. Analysis of Income/Commercial Real Estate Transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apfelberg, Robert S.

    Basic concepts in long- and short-term financing of real estate property are discussed in this text for real estate personnel. Two of the more important of these are leverage, the relationship between the return received by the equity and mortgage investors, and risk, the assessment of the probability that all or part of the investment may be…

  14. DFSIM with economics: A financial analysis option for the DFSIM Douglas-fir simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger O. Fight; Judith M. Chittester; Gary W. Clendenen

    1984-01-01

    A modified version of the DFSIM Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii) growth and yield simulator, DFSIM WITH ECONOMICS, now has an economics option that allows the user to estimate present net worth at the same time a silvicultural regime is simulated. If desired, the economics option will apply a...

  15. Noncontact optical motion sensing for real-time analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetzer, Bradley R.; Imai, Hiromichi

    1990-08-01

    The adaptation of an image dissector tube (IDT) within the OPTFOLLOW system provides high resolution displacement measurement of a light discontinuity. Due to the high speed response of the IDT and the advanced servo loop circuitry, the system is capable of real time analysis of the object under test. The image of the discontinuity may be contoured by direct or reflected light and ranges spectrally within the field of visible light. The image is monitored to 500 kHz through a lens configuration which transposes the optical image upon the photocathode of the IDT. The photoelectric effect accelerates the resultant electrons through a photomultiplier and an enhanced current is emitted from the anode. A servo loop controls the electron beam, continually centering it within the IDT using magnetic focusing of deflection coils. The output analog voltage from the servo amplifier is thereby proportional to the displacement of the target. The system is controlled by a microprocessor with a 32kbyte memory and provides a digital display as well as instructional readout on a color monitor allowing for offset image tracking and automatic system calibration.

  16. Resistive MHD Stability Analysis in Near Real-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasser, Alexander; Kolemen, Egemen

    2017-10-01

    We discuss the feasibility of a near real-time calculation of the tokamak Δ' matrix, which summarizes MHD stability to resistive modes, such as tearing and interchange modes. As the operational phase of ITER approaches, solutions for active feedback tokamak stability control are needed. It has been previously demonstrated that an ideal MHD stability analysis is achievable on a sub- O (1 s) timescale, as is required to control phenomena comparable with the MHD-evolution timescale of ITER. In the present work, we broaden this result to incorporate the effects of resistive MHD modes. Such modes satisfy ideal MHD equations in regions outside narrow resistive layers that form at singular surfaces. We demonstrate that the use of asymptotic expansions at the singular surfaces, as well as the application of state transition matrices, enable a fast, parallelized solution to the singular outer layer boundary value problem, and thereby rapidly compute Δ'. Sponsored by US DOE under DE-SC0015878 and DE-FC02-04ER54698.

  17. Options analysis of managed care contracting and regulation: theory and evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, R A; Magiera, F T

    2000-08-01

    Managed care contracts can be represented as bundles of options. In particular, the managed care provider is short a call option. To hedge the risk involved in such contracts, managed care contractors can construct several types of virtual put options, among them the ownership of facilities. Agency theory and options theory suggest that for-profit managed care plans, in the presence of debt, will engage in less hedging activity than will other managed care plans. Here, the authors test that hypothesis, using data for Florida HMOs in 1995, and they reject the null hypothesis. That managed care organizations act as if they are short a call option raises interesting regulatory issues, including the possibility of using a hedge-based regulatory scheme in place of a net-worth-based scheme.

  18. The Strategic Exercise of Options Using Government Subsidies: An Analysis of Production Subsidies for the Ground Source Heat Pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Sheng-Hau; Li, Jia-Hsun; Hsu, Chih-Chen; Hsieh, Jing-Chzi; Liao, Pin-Chao

    2018-04-01

    This study utilizes consolidation investment theory to incorporate with business strategies and government subsidy to develop a strategic exercise of options model. This empirical investigation examines the ground source heat pump (GSHP) government subsidy program, which is part of China’s 12th Five Year Plan. The developed model is applied to explain the behaviours of business investment with regard to strategic investment timing, option values, and the influence of government subsidies in duopolistic real-world investment decisions. The results indicate that subsidy policy can reduce the differences of investment timing among GSHP investors and has clearly evidenced the positive benefit–cost ratio of government subsidy, which facilitates China’s GSHP industry development.

  19. Cluster Computing For Real Time Seismic Array Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, M.; Giudicepietro, F.

    A seismic array is an instrument composed by a dense distribution of seismic sen- sors that allow to measure the directional properties of the wavefield (slowness or wavenumber vector) radiated by a seismic source. Over the last years arrays have been widely used in different fields of seismological researches. In particular they are applied in the investigation of seismic sources on volcanoes where they can be suc- cessfully used for studying the volcanic microtremor and long period events which are critical for getting information on the volcanic systems evolution. For this reason arrays could be usefully employed for the volcanoes monitoring, however the huge amount of data produced by this type of instruments and the processing techniques which are quite time consuming limited their potentiality for this application. In order to favor a direct application of arrays techniques to continuous volcano monitoring we designed and built a small PC cluster able to near real time computing the kinematics properties of the wavefield (slowness or wavenumber vector) produced by local seis- mic source. The cluster is composed of 8 Intel Pentium-III bi-processors PC working at 550 MHz, and has 4 Gigabytes of RAM memory. It runs under Linux operating system. The developed analysis software package is based on the Multiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm and is written in Fortran. The message-passing part is based upon the LAM programming environment package, an open-source imple- mentation of the Message Passing Interface (MPI). The developed software system includes modules devote to receiving date by internet and graphical applications for the continuous displaying of the processing results. The system has been tested with a data set collected during a seismic experiment conducted on Etna in 1999 when two dense seismic arrays have been deployed on the northeast and the southeast flanks of this volcano. A real time continuous acquisition system has been simulated by

  20. Use of population viability analysis to evaluate CITES trade-management options for threatened marine fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Janelle M R; Vincent, Amanda C J

    2008-10-01

    Achieving multiple conservation objectives can be challenging, particularly under high uncertainty. Having agreed to limit seahorse (Hippocampus) exports to sustainable levels, signatories to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) were offered the option of a single 10-cm minimum size limit (MSL) as an interim management measure for all Hippocampus species (> or =34). Although diverse stakeholders supported the recommended MSL, its biological and socioeconomic implications were not assessed quantitatively. We combined population viability analysis, model sensitivity analysis, and economic information to evaluate the trade-off between conservation threat to and long-term cumulative income from these exploited marine fishes of high conservation concern. We used the European long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) as a representative species to compare the performance of MSLs set at alternative biological reference points. Our sensitivity analyses showed that in most of our scenarios, setting the MSL just above size at maturity (9.7 cm in H. guttulatus) would not prevent exploited populations from becoming listed as vulnerable. By contrast, the relative risk of decline and extinction were almost halved--at a cost of only a 5.6% reduction in long-term catches--by increasing the MSL to the size reached after at least one full reproductive season. On the basis of our analysis, a precautionary increase in the MSL could be compatible with sustaining fishers' livelihoods and international trade. Such management tactics that aid species conservation and have minimal effects on long term catch trends may help bolster the case for CITES trade management of other valuable marine fishes.

  1. Treatment options for patients with acute myeloid leukemia with a matched sibling donor: a decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Lillian; Buckstein, Rena; Doyle, John J; Crump, Michael; Detsky, Allan S

    2003-02-01

    The role of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) in the consolidation of young adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with matched sibling donors (MSD) is controversial. Although BMT is associated with increased event free survival compared with intensive chemotherapy (CT) consolidation, BMT also is associated with increased treatment-related mortality and likely decreased quality of life and life expectancy in patients who do not develop recurrent disease. The authors used decision analysis to compare three strategies for maximizing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in patients with AML in first remission with an MSD: BMT All, BMT None (consolidation CT only), or BMT in high-risk patients, as defined by baseline cytogenetic testing (Test strategy). A second decision-analysis tree was then constructed that compared BMT with CT specifically for patients with intermediate cytogenetics. Using expected QALYs as the outcome measure, the Test, BMT All, and BMT None strategies were associated with 20.10 QALYs, 19.63 QALYs, and 18.38 QALYs, respectively. Thus, the Test strategy, with CT for low-risk patients and BMT for intermediate risk and high-risk patients, was expected to be the optimal strategy. In the intermediate cytogenetic decision analysis, although the expected QALY for BMT recipients was higher compared with CT recipients (19.78 QALYs vs. 18.75 QALYs), because of uncertainty in variable estimates, the optimal choice was less clear. CT consolidation is a reasonable option for patients with AML who have favorable cytogenetics, even if an MSD is available. This model provides a framework from which patients with AML and their physicians can make decisions about consolidation therapy. Copyright 2003 American Cancer Society.DOI 10.1002/cncr.11098

  2. Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

    2002-01-01

    Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

  3. Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes

    KAUST Repository

    Crocce, Fabian

    2015-01-07

    We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a L? bound that separates the dynamical contribution from that arising from the type of the option n in question. The bound achieved does not rely on information of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset values. In addition, we demonstrate improved numerical performance for select examples of practical relevance when compared to established bounding methods.

  4. An exploration of the option space in student design projects for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with performance simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struck, C.; Wilde, de P.J.C.J.; Hopfe, C.J.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted to gather empirical evidence on extent, character and content of the option space in building design projects, from the perspective of a climate engineer using building performance simulation for concept evaluation. The goal is to support uncertainty analysis

  5. Comparison of the Effect of 5 Different Treatment Options for Managing Patellar Tendinopathy: A Secondary Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rijn, Dafne; van den Akker-Scheek, Inge; Steunebrink, Mirjam; Diercks, Ron L; Zwerver, Johannes; van der Worp, Henk

    2017-10-10

    Currently, no treatments exist for patellar tendinopathy (PT) that guarantee quick and full recovery. Our objective was to assess which treatment option provides the best chance of clinical improvement and to assess the influence of patient and injury characteristics on the clinical effect of these treatments. A secondary analysis was performed on the combined databases of 3 previously performed double-blind randomized controlled trials. In total, 138 patients with PT were included in the analysis. Participants were divided into 5 groups, based on the treatment they received: Extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ESWT) (n = 31), ESWT plus eccentric training (n = 43), eccentric training (n = 17), topical glyceryl trinitrate patch plus eccentric training (n = 16), and placebo treatment (n = 31). Clinical improvement (increase of ≥13 points on the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Patella score) after 3 months of treatment. Fifty-two patients (37.7%) improved clinically after 3 months of treatment. Odds ratios (ORs) for clinical improvement were significantly higher in the eccentric training group (OR 6.68, P = 0.009) and the ESWT plus eccentric training group (OR 5.42, P = 0.015) compared with the other groups. We found evidence that a high training volume, a longer duration of symptoms, and older age negatively influence a treatment's clinical outcome (trend toward significance). Our study confirmed the importance of exercise, and eccentric training in particular, in the management of PT. The role of ESWT remains uncertain. Further research focusing on the identified prognostic factors is needed to be able to design patient-specific treatment protocols for the management of PT.

  6. Autologous stem-cell transplantation in Hodgkin’s lymphoma: analysis of a therapeutic option

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano de Moraes Arantes

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To report the clinical progress of patients with Hodgkin’slymphoma treated with autologous transplantation after failure orrelapse of first-line treatment with chemotherapy and/or radiationtherapy. Methods: The results of a retrospective analysis of 31patients submitted to autologous transplantation as second-linetreatment, between April 2000 and December 2008, were analyzed.Fourteen men and seventeen women, with a median age of 27 years,were submitted to autologous transplantation for relapsed (n = 21or refractory (n = 10 Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Results: Mortalityrelated to treatment in the first 100 days after transplant was 3.2%.With a mean follow-up period of 18 months (range: 1 to 88 months,the probability of global survival and progression-free survival in18 months was 84 and 80%, respectively. The probability of globalsurvival and progression-free survival at 18 months for patients withchemosensitive relapses (n = 21 was 95 and 90%, respectively,versus 60 and 45% for patients with relapses resistant to chemotherapy(n = 10 (p = 0.001 for global survival; p = 0.003 for progressionfreesurvival. In the multivariate analysis, absence of disease or pretransplant disease < 5 cm were favorable factors for global survival (p= 0.02; RR: 0.072; 95%CI: 0.01-0.85 and progression-free survival (p= 0.01; RR: 0.040; 95%CI: 0.007-0.78. Conclusion: Autologous transplantation of stem-cells is a therapeutic option for Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients after the first relapse. Promising results were observed in patients with a low tumor burden at transplant.

  7. Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes

    KAUST Repository

    Crocce, Fabian; Hä ppö lä , Juho; Keissling, Jonas; Tempone, Raul

    2015-01-01

    We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions

  8. Real analysis for the undergraduate with an invitation to functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pons, Matthew A

    2014-01-01

    This undergraduate textbook introduces students to the basics of real analysis, provides an introduction to more advanced topics including measure theory and Lebesgue integration, and offers an invitation to functional analysis. While these advanced topics are not typically encountered until graduate study, the text is designed for the beginner. The author’s engaging style makes advanced topics approachable without sacrificing rigor. The text also consistently encourages the reader to pick up a pencil and take an active part in the learning process. Key features include: - examples to reinforce theory; - thorough explanations preceding definitions, theorems and formal proofs; - illustrations to support intuition; - over 450 exercises designed to develop connections between the concrete and abstract. This text takes students on a journey through the basics of real analysis and provides those who wish to delve deeper the opportunity to experience mathematical ideas that are beyond the standard undergraduate c...

  9. Rehabilitation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ... Speech Pathology Occupational Therapy Art Therapy Recreational therapy Neuropsychology Home Care Options Advanced Care Planning Palliative Care ...

  10. Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

    2006-11-01

    The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensor packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging

  11. Analysis of an option to finance the investment in a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villanueva M, C.

    2011-11-01

    According to the recent projection of costs of electric generation published by the International Atomic Energy Agency, with a rate of discount of 10% annual the even unitary cost of a nuclear power station of 1,400 MW of capacity would be 98. 75 USD 2010 /MWh, while for a combined cycle of same capacity that burns natural gas the cost it would be 92. 11 USD 2010 /MWh, operating the power stations with a capacity factor of 85% to generate 10,424 annual G Wh. To 5% annual, the costs would decrease at 58. 53 USD 2010 /MWh for the nuclear energy and at 85. 77 USD 2010 /MWh for the combined cycle. In an indifference analysis of the price of natural gas against the investment cost in the nuclear, with a rate of discount of 10% annual the common cost would be 97. 31 USD 2010 /MWh, when the even price of the natural gas was 10. 50 USD 2010 /G J and simultaneously the unitary cost of investment of the nuclear was 4,023 USD 2010 /kw. Under similar conditions, if the investment in the nuclear power station was 4,163 USD 2010 /Kw to redeem it in 60 years of economic useful life the equivalent annuity would be of USD 2010 790.060 millions that would have the same value of the annual invoice of the natural gas consumed by the combined cycle power station to the price of 12. 00 USD 2010 /G J. Then, as example of an excellent option of the Federal Commission of Electricity to finance with own resources budget them a new nuclear power station, the investment could redeem annually with the savings that it would represent to stop to burn natural gas when displacing the equivalent generation in central of combined cycle. (Author)

  12. Analysis of federal policy options for improving US lighting energy efficiency: Commercial and residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atkinson, B.A.; McMahon, J.E.; Mills, E.; Chan, P.; Chan, T.W.; Eto, J.H.; Jennings, J.D.; Koomey, J.G.; Lo, K.W.; Lecar, M.; Price, L.; Rubinstein, F.; Sezgen, O.; Wenzel, T.

    1992-12-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has recognized the opportunity to achieve energy, economic, and environmental benefits by promoting energy-efficient lighting through federal policies, including lighting standards, financial incentives, and information programs. To assist in this process, the Office of Conservation and Renewable Energy's Office of Codes and Standards invited Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to assess prospective national impacts for a variety of policy options. Some progress has already been made in developing lighting policies at both the federal and state levels. The US DOE's Office of Building Technologies has evaluated lighting efficiency incentives as part of its analysis for the National Energy Strategy. Fluorescent and incandescent lamp standards are included in the national Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-486, October 24, 1992). A few states have analyzed or implemented lamp and luminaire standards. Many policy-related issues merit further investigation. For example, there is considerable debate over issues such as mandatory or voluntary standards versus component labeling and other education-oriented strategies. Several different technologies are involved that interact with each other-lamps (incandescent, compact fluorescent, and HID), ballasts (for fluorescent and HID lamps), and fixtures with reflectors and lenses. Control systems and operation patterns must also be considered (timers, automated dimming, or occupancy sensors). Lighting applications are diverse, ranging from offices, restaurants, hallways, hospital operating rooms, to exterior lights. Lighting energy use influences heating and cooling requirements in buildings. Successful lighting system design must also address interactions between architectural design elements and daylighting availability. Proper system installation and ongoing operation and maintenance are crucial. The economic aspects of the preceding points must also be considered for policy making.

  13. Analysis of federal policy options for improving US lighting energy efficiency: Commercial and residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atkinson, B.A.; McMahon, J.E.; Mills, E.; Chan, P.; Chan, T.W.; Eto, J.H.; Jennings, J.D.; Koomey, J.G.; Lo, K.W.; Lecar, M.; Price, L.; Rubinstein, F.; Sezgen, O.; Wenzel, T.

    1992-12-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has recognized the opportunity to achieve energy, economic, and environmental benefits by promoting energy-efficient lighting through federal policies, including lighting standards, financial incentives, and information programs. To assist in this process, the Office of Conservation and Renewable Energy`s Office of Codes and Standards invited Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to assess prospective national impacts for a variety of policy options. Some progress has already been made in developing lighting policies at both the federal and state levels. The US DOE`s Office of Building Technologies has evaluated lighting efficiency incentives as part of its analysis for the National Energy Strategy. Fluorescent and incandescent lamp standards are included in the national Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-486, October 24, 1992). A few states have analyzed or implemented lamp and luminaire standards. Many policy-related issues merit further investigation. For example, there is considerable debate over issues such as mandatory or voluntary standards versus component labeling and other education-oriented strategies. Several different technologies are involved that interact with each other-lamps (incandescent, compact fluorescent, and HID), ballasts (for fluorescent and HID lamps), and fixtures with reflectors and lenses. Control systems and operation patterns must also be considered (timers, automated dimming, or occupancy sensors). Lighting applications are diverse, ranging from offices, restaurants, hallways, hospital operating rooms, to exterior lights. Lighting energy use influences heating and cooling requirements in buildings. Successful lighting system design must also address interactions between architectural design elements and daylighting availability. Proper system installation and ongoing operation and maintenance are crucial. The economic aspects of the preceding points must also be considered for policy making.

  14. Una aplicación de opciones reales a la valoración de contratos de leasing An application of real options to the assessment of leasing contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Andrea Arango Arango

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es el resultado de una investigación que desarrolla un modelo para la determinación del canon de arrendamiento en un contrato de leasing sobre vehículos, incluyendo la valoración de la opción de compra implícita en éste. Para realizar esta valoración se utilizaron como base los modelos propuestos por Giaccotto et al. [1] y Gamba y Rigon [2] (en tres marcas de vehículos en Colombia para el período comprendido entre Enero de 2004 y Diciembre de 2007. Se identificó el proceso ARMA de las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos. Se realizaron pruebas para identificar posibles efectos ARCH en las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos analizados. La estimación del valor de la opción de compra del vehículo al finalizar el contrato de leasing se realiza mediante la implementación del modelo de black-scholes y de simulación Monte Carlo.This article is the result of a research that develops a model related to the determination of the rent on a leasing vehicle contract and the valuation of the call option that gives the lessee the right but not the obligation to buy the used car at the end of the contract at a specified price. We used models proposed by [1] and by [2] in three brands of vehicles in Colombia for the period between January of 2004 and December of 2007. The analysis of the time series of returns of the prices vehicles displayed an ARMA process. We also developed further tests to identify possible ARCH effects in the series of returns of prices of the vehicles analyzed. The estimation of the value of the option to purchase the vehicle at the end of the leasing contract is done by the implementation of the model of Black Scholes and Montecarlo Simulation.

  15. An Analysis of Discrimination by Real Estate Brokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yinger, John

    This paper focuses on designing policies to eliminate discrimination in the sale of single-family houses by analyzing the behavior of the agents who actually do most of the discriminating, namely real estate agents. Discriminatory practices are said to be supported by policies of house builders, lending institutions, and government, and by the…

  16. Modelling and analysis of real-time coordination patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemper, Stephanie

    2011-01-01

    Present-day embedded software systems need to support an increasing number of features and formalisms; the two most important ones being handling of real-time, and the possibility to develop the system in a modular, component-based way. To ensure that the behaviour of the final system is correct

  17. Real SQL queries 50 challenges : practice for reporting and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cohen, Brian; Mishra, Neerja

    2015-01-01

    Queries improve when challenges are authentic. This book sets your learning on the fast track with realistic problems to solve. Topics span sales, marketing, human resources, purchasing, and production. Real SQL Queries: 50 Challenges is perfect for analysts, report writers, or anyone searching for a hands-on approach to learning SQL Server.

  18. ANALYSIS OF REAL-TIME VEHICLE HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS DATA

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report gives results of analyses using real-time dynamometer test emissions data from 13 passenger cars to examine variations in emissions during different speeds or modes of travel. The resulting data provided a way to separately identify idle, cruise, acceleration, and dece...

  19. Life cycle analysis of management options for organic waste collected in an urban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Maria, Francesco; Micale, Caterina

    2015-01-01

    Different options for managing the organic fraction (OF) of municipal solid waste generated in a given urban area were analyzed by life cycle assessment (LCA) for different source segregation (SS) intensities ranging from 0 to 52%. The best management option for processing the OF remaining in the residual organic fraction (ROF) for the different SS intensities was by incineration. Landfilling and mechanical biological treatment (MBT) of ROF gave higher impacts. Aerobic treatment alone or combined with anaerobic digestion (AD) for processing the source-segregated organic fraction (SSOF) led to relevant environmental impact reduction even if the difference between the two options was quite negligible. The weighted impact showed that scenarios using incineration always gave environmental gains, whereas there was a higher environmental burden with the scenarios using MBT.

  20. Analysis of edible oil processing options for the BIO-Plex advanced life support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwalt, C. J.; Hunter, J.

    2000-01-01

    Edible oil is a critical component of the proposed plant-based Advanced Life Support (ALS) diet. Soybean, peanut, and single-cell oil are the oil source options to date. In terrestrial manufacture, oil is ordinarily extracted with hexane, an organic solvent. However, exposed solvents are not permitted in the spacecraft environment or in enclosed human tests by National Aeronautics and Space Administration due to their potential danger and handling difficulty. As a result, alternative oil-processing methods will need to be utilized. Preparation and recovery options include traditional dehulling, crushing, conditioning, and flaking, extrusion, pressing, water extraction, and supercritical extraction. These processing options were evaluated on criteria appropriate to the Advanced Life Support System and BIO-Plex application including: product quality, product stability, waste production, risk, energy needs, labor requirements, utilization of nonrenewable resources, usefulness of by-products, and versatility and mass of equipment to determine the most appropriate ALS edible oil-processing operation.

  1. Least cost analysis of Belarus electricity generation system with focus on nuclear option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikhalevich, A.; Yakushau, A.

    2004-01-01

    accepted in Russia for NPP placement sites. The result of the preliminary studies had shown that there are at least three suitable sites for construction of the NPP. It allows including nuclear power option in the list of possible technologies for electricity generation. Optimal expansion plan of the electricity generation system based on installation new combine cycle units, co-generation units and nuclear power plants has been developed. Optimal least cost expansion plan has been chosen as a result of comparative analysis of the three scenarios: Scenario 1: Steam turbine, Combined cycle, Gas turbine, Co-generation turbine, Natural gas; Scenario 2: Steam turbine, Combined cycle, Gas turbine, Co-generation turbine, Natural gas, Coal; Scenario 3: Steam turbine, Combined cycle, Gas turbine, Co-generation turbine, Natural gas, Nuclear. Using WASP III plus computer code optimal electricity generation system expansion plan for each scenario had been found. Calculations had been carried out for discount rate equaled 8 %. The results of calculation are shown that electricity system expansion plan based on utilization of coal as a fuel has highest generation cost. Otherwise, implementation on nuclear power will allow decreasing generation cost up to 3.26 cents/kWh. In accordance with calculation optimal solution includes construction four nuclear units and first unit has to start up in 2014 year. For Scenario based on natural gas and nuclear fuel mix is expected to be least total electricity generation cost and it is most economically attractive option.(author)

  2. Feasibility Study for the Ivano-Frankivsk District Heating Repowering: Analysis of Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markel, L.; Popelka, A.; Laskarevsky, V.

    2002-03-20

    Part of the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation with the Ukraine Inter-Ministerial Commission on Climate Change, financed by the US Department of Energy. The project was implemented by a team consisting of the US company SenTech, Inc. and the Ukrainian company Esco-West. The main objective of the effort was to assess available alternatives of Ivano-Frankivsk (I-F) District Heating repowering and provide information for I-F's investment decision process. This study provides information on positive and negative technical and economic aspects of available options. Three options were analyzed for technical merit and economic performance: 1. Installation of cogeneration system based on Gas Turbine (GT) and Heat Recovery Heat Exchanger with thermal capacity of 30 MW and electrical capacity of 13.5 MW. This Option assumes utilization of five existing boilers with total capacity of 221 MW. Existing boilers will be equipped with modern controls. Equipment in this Option was sized for longest operating hours, about 8000 based on the available summer baseload. 2. Installation of Gas Turbine Combined Cycle (GTCC) and Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) with thermal capacity 45 MW and electrical capacity of 58.7 MW. This Option assumes utilization of five existing boilers with total capacity of 221 MW. Existing boilers will be equipped with modern controls. The equipment was sized for medium, shoulder season thermal load, and some cooling was assumed during the summer operation for extension of operating hours for electricity production. 3. Retrofit of six existing boilers (NGB) with total thermal capacity of 255.9 MW by installation of modern control system and minor upgrades. This option assumes only heat production with minimum investment. The best economic performance and the largest investment cost would result from alternative GTCC. This alternative has positive Net Present Value (NPV) with discount rate lower than about 12%, and has IRR slightly above 12%. The

  3. A real options model to assess the role of flexibility in forestry and agroforestry adoption and disadoption in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to restore the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley’s forests have not achieved desired levels of ecosystem services production.We examined how the variability of returns and the flexibility to change or postpone decisions (option value) affects the economic potential of forestry and agroforestry systems to keep private land in production while still providing...

  4. 32 CFR 644.168 - Exercise of options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Exercise of options. 644.168 Section 644.168... ESTATE HANDBOOK Acquisition Procurement of Options Prior to Real Estate Directives (military) § 644.168 Exercise of options. Upon issuance of a real estate directive for acquisition of the optioned real property...

  5. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Waste Treatment Options for Food and Biodegradable Waste Management in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micky A. Babalola

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Dealing with large-scale Food and Biodegradable Waste (FBW often results in many logistical problems and environmental impacts to be considered. These can become great hindrances when the integration of solid waste management is concerned. Extra care is needed to plan such waste disposal or treatment services and facilities, especially with respect to the ecological impact. Decision-making with regards to the sustainable use of these facilities also involves tradeoffs between a number of conflicting objectives, since increasing one benefit may decrease the others. In this study a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA is presented to evaluate different waste management options and their applicability in Japan. The analytical process aims at selecting the most suitable waste treatment option, using pairwise comparisons conducted within a decision hierarchy that was developed through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP. The results of this study show that anaerobic digestion should be chosen as the best FBW treatment option with regards to resource recovery. The study also presents some conditions and recommendations that can enhance the suitability of other options like incineration and composting.

  6. Comparative study of standard space and real space analysis of quantitative MR brain data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aribisala, Benjamin S; He, Jiabao; Blamire, Andrew M

    2011-06-01

    To compare the robustness of region of interest (ROI) analysis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain data in real space with analysis in standard space and to test the hypothesis that standard space image analysis introduces more partial volume effect errors compared to analysis of the same dataset in real space. Twenty healthy adults with no history or evidence of neurological diseases were recruited; high-resolution T(1)-weighted, quantitative T(1), and B(0) field-map measurements were collected. Algorithms were implemented to perform analysis in real and standard space and used to apply a simple standard ROI template to quantitative T(1) datasets. Regional relaxation values and histograms for both gray and white matter tissues classes were then extracted and compared. Regional mean T(1) values for both gray and white matter were significantly lower using real space compared to standard space analysis. Additionally, regional T(1) histograms were more compact in real space, with smaller right-sided tails indicating lower partial volume errors compared to standard space analysis. Standard space analysis of quantitative MRI brain data introduces more partial volume effect errors biasing the analysis of quantitative data compared to analysis of the same dataset in real space. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Quantitative analysis of real-time radiographic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, M.D.; Condon, P.E.; Barry, R.C.; Betz, R.A.; Klynn, L.M.

    1988-01-01

    A method was developed which yields quantitative information on the spatial resolution, contrast sensitivity, image noise, and focal spot size from real time radiographic images. The method uses simple image quality indicators and computer programs which make it possible to readily obtain quantitative performance measurements of single or multiple radiographic systems. It was used for x-ray and optical images to determine which component of the system was not operating up to standard. Focal spot size was monitored by imaging a bar pattern. This paper constitutes the second progress report on the development of the camera and radiation image quality indicators

  8. Near real-time analysis of tritium in treated water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skibo, A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-27

    The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) is managing large quantities of treated water at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Moving forward, TEPCO will be discharging from the site clean water that meets agreed criteria. As part of agreements with stakeholders, TEPCO is planning to carefully monitor the water prior to discharge to assure compliance. The objective of this proposal is to support implementation of an on-line “real-time” (continuous or semi-continuous) tritium monitor that will reliably measure levels down to the agreed target 1500 Becquerels per liter (Bq/L).

  9. Correlation Analysis between Nominal and Real Convergence. The Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu Marinas

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the sources of the correlation between the nominal and real convergence, as well as the impact of the macroeconomic politics on it. The perspective of Euro adoption will impose stricter management of monetary and budgetary politics, which will affect negatively the catching up process of the economic delays given the lack of higher economic flexibility. This enables a more rapid adjustment of the economy to some persistent shocks as a result of applying growth aggregate supply politics.

  10. Correlation Analysis between Nominal and Real Convergence. The Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu Marinas

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the sources of the correlation between the nominal and real convergence, as well as the impact of the macroeconomic politics on it. The perspective of Euro adoption will impose stricter management of monetary and budgetary politics, which will affect negatively the catching up process of the economic delays given the lack of higher economic flexibility. This enables a more rapid adjustment of the economy to some persistent shocks as a result of applying growth aggregate supply politics.

  11. Geoinformatic subsystem for real estate market analysis). (Polish Title: Podsystem geoinformatyczny do analizy rynku nieruchomosci)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basista, A.

    2013-12-01

    There are many tools to manage spatial data. They called Geographic Information System (GIS), which apart from data visualization in space, let users make various spatial analysis. Thanks to them, it is possible to obtain more, essential information for real estate market analysis. Many scientific research present GIS exploitation to future mass valuation, because it is necessary to use advanced tools to manage such a huge real estates' data sets gathered for mass valuation needs. In practice, appraisers use rarely these tools for single valuation, because there are not many available GIS tools to support real estate valuation. The paper presents the functionality of geoinformatic subsystem, that is used to support real estate market analysis and real estate valuation. There are showed a detailed description of the process relied to attributes' inputting into the database and the attributes' values calculation based on the proposed definition of attributes' scales. This work presents also the algorithm of similar properties selection that was implemented within the described subsystem. The main stage of this algorithm is the calculation of the price creative indicator for each real estate, using their attributes' values. The set of properties, chosen in this way, are visualized on the map. The geoinformatic subsystem is used for the un-built real estates and living premises. Geographic Information System software was used to worked out this project. The basic functionality of gvSIG software (open source software) was extended and some extra functions were added to support real estate market analysis.

  12. A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Schotman (Peter); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a posterior odds analysis of the hypothesis of a unit root in real exchange rates. From a Bayesian viewpoint the random walk hypothesis for real exchange rates is a posteriori as probable as a stationary AR(1) process for four out of eight time series investigated. The French

  13. Real-time video analysis for retail stores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Ehtesham; Maurya, Avinash K.

    2015-03-01

    With the advancement in video processing technologies, we can capture subtle human responses in a retail store environment which play decisive role in the store management. In this paper, we present a novel surveillance video based analytic system for retail stores targeting localized and global traffic estimate. Development of an intelligent system for human traffic estimation in real-life poses a challenging problem because of the variation and noise involved. In this direction, we begin with a novel human tracking system by an intelligent combination of motion based and image level object detection. We demonstrate the initial evaluation of this approach on available standard dataset yielding promising result. Exact traffic estimate in a retail store require correct separation of customers from service providers. We present a role based human classification framework using Gaussian mixture model for this task. A novel feature descriptor named graded colour histogram is defined for object representation. Using, our role based human classification and tracking system, we have defined a novel computationally efficient framework for two types of analytics generation i.e., region specific people count and dwell-time estimation. This system has been extensively evaluated and tested on four hours of real-life video captured from a retail store.

  14. Declassification, an actual operating materials management option in Cofrentes; La descalsificacion, una opcion operativa real de gestion de materiales en C. N. Cofrentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Diego compadre, J. L. de; Lopez Alvarez, L.; Analya Lazaro, M.

    2014-07-01

    Methods and procedures developed for declassification feature a series of methodological options and innovative technology, including the systematic use of the spatial random variable named index of Residual activity, level specific factors for declassification determined empirically for each unit of characterization and contrasts of hypothesis not parametric which are used in the demonstration of compliance of the levels of declassification Decision rules authorized by the CSN. (Author)

  15. Trading in Target Stocks Before Takeover Announcements: An Analysis of Stock and Option Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Marcus Clements; Harminder Singh; Antonie Van Eekelen

    2007-01-01

    In this study we examine both informed trading and contraire trading preceding takeover announcements on US target firms. Our findings suggest that both informed trading and contraire trading exists within the period preceding takeover announcements on both the stock and option markets as evident through abnormal returns and trading volumes. In regard to contraire trading, this study investigates possible explanations for its existence including liquidity clustering, falsely informed trading ...

  16. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  17. Design optimization of real estate tax and effect analysis in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjiuan Guo

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this research is to reform the current real estate tax system and establish the real estate tax system suitable for China’s national conditions.Design/methodology: Based on the necessity of the real estate tax reform, the paper studies the system optimization and its effects analysis of the real estate tax. At last, the paper uses the system dynamics to demonstrate the feasibility of the real estate tax from an empirical point.Findings: With the system dynamics, we can establish the causal relationship of the influence factors and forecast the impact on the future real estate prices. It can also provide some suggestions for China’s real estate tax reform.Research limitations/implications: The establishment of the model might not be very mature, so we need the further study and improvement.Originality/value: This study was the first to use system dynamics to analyze the impact of real estate taxes on real estate prices, and we hope to provide some suggestions for China’s real estate tax reform.

  18. Generating functional analysis of minority games with real market histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, A C C

    2005-01-01

    It is shown how the generating functional method of De Dominicis can be used to solve the dynamics of the original version of the minority game (MG), in which agents observe real as opposed to fake market histories. Here one again finds exact closed equations for correlation and response functions, but now these are defined in terms of two connected effective non-Markovian stochastic processes: a single effective agent equation similar to that of the 'fake' history models, and a second effective equation for the overall market bid itself (the latter is absent in 'fake' history models). The result is an exact theory, from which one can calculate from first principles both the persistent observables in the MG and the distribution of history frequencies

  19. Raman spectroscopic analysis of real samples: Brazilian bauxite mineralogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulstich, Fabiano Richard Leite; Castro, Harlem V.; de Oliveira, Luiz Fernando Cappa; Neumann, Reiner

    2011-10-01

    In this investigation, Raman spectroscopy with 1064 and 632.8 nm excitation was used to investigate real mineral samples of bauxite ore from mines of Northern Brazil, together with Raman mapping and X-rays diffraction. The obtained results show clearly that the use of microRaman spectroscopy is a powerful tool for the identification of all the minerals usually found in bauxites: gibbsite, kaolinite, goethite, hematite, anatase and quartz. Bulk samples can also be analysed, and FT-Raman is more adequate due to better signal-to-noise ratio and representativity, although not efficient for kaolinite. The identification of fingerprinting vibrations for all the minerals allows the acquisition of Raman-based chemical maps, potentially powerful tools for process mineralogy applied to bauxite ores.

  20. Analysis of policy options and implementation measures promoting electricity from renewable biomass in the EU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kautto, N.

    2005-04-01

    Biomass as a renewable energy source holds a great potential in responding to energy challenges of the future as well as meeting renewable energy targets set by the European Union. The objective of this study was to analyse various policy options and implementation measures promoting electricity from renewable biomass in the European Union, including new Member States (EU-25). The main political driving force behind this investigation was the RES-E Directive (2001/77/EC). The effectiveness of policy instruments regarding the development of electricity from biomass and biogas in the period of 1990-2002, and the framework conditions, i.e. success and risk factors, for this progress were assessed though a 'five-step approach'. Past development in terms of bioelectricity production and generating capacity was assessed based on statistics of Eurostat and the IEA. Policy instruments promoting bioelectricity and the framework factors on the national level in each EU Member State (excluding Cyprus and Malta) were investigated using the EU and governmental documents, independent evaluations and expert contacts as information sources. It became clear that determination of the effectiveness of policy instruments cannot be separated from the environment these mechanisms are applied to: mapping of the frame conditions for development is essential. Instead of selecting distinct policy instruments, successful Member State/bioelectricity combinations were chosen. The most successful combinations were found to be Germany, United Kingdom, Spain and Finland, whereas examples of unsuccessful measures were found in Greece, Luxembourg and the new Member States. Bioelectricity has clearly benefited from feed-in tariff system in countries like Germany but the use of biomass has essentially increased even without this measure in Sweden and Finland, where favourable taxation and strong links between forestry and power industries are defining factors for positive development. This study

  1. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  2. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  3. An image scanner for real time analysis of spark chamber images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cesaroni, F.; Penso, G.; Locci, A.M.; Spano, M.A.

    1975-01-01

    The notes describes the semiautomatic scanning system at LNF for the analysis of spark chamber images. From the projection of the images on the scanner table, the trajectory in the real space is reconstructed

  4. Methods of selecting factors in the analysis of the real estates market

    OpenAIRE

    Jasińska, Elżbieta; Preweda, Edward

    2006-01-01

    In the paper the problem of selecting the method of choosing factors in factorial analysis is presented. For the database of 61 real estates the process of singling out the factors was carried out with the use of all the methods proposed in the STATISTICA 6.0 pack. A particular attention was paid on the number of differentiated factors and the efficiency of subsequent methods for the analysis of the real estates market. Edward Preweda

  5. Categorical data processing for real estate objects valuation using statistical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parygin, D. S.; Malikov, V. P.; Golubev, A. V.; Sadovnikova, N. P.; Petrova, T. M.; Finogeev, A. G.

    2018-05-01

    Theoretical and practical approaches to the use of statistical methods for studying various properties of infrastructure objects are analyzed in the paper. Methods of forecasting the value of objects are considered. A method for coding categorical variables describing properties of real estate objects is proposed. The analysis of the results of modeling the price of real estate objects using regression analysis and an algorithm based on a comparative approach is carried out.

  6. Symmetry analysis of a model for the exercise of a barrier option

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, J. G.; Sophocleous, C.; Leach, P. G. L.

    2013-09-01

    A barrier option takes into account the possibility of an unacceptable change in the price of the underlying stock. Such a change could carry considerable financial loss. We examine one model based upon the Black-Scholes-Merton Equation and determine the functional forms of the barrier function and rebate function which are consistent with a solution of the underlying evolution partial differential equation using the Lie Theory of Extended Groups. The solution is consistent with the possibility of no rebate and the barrier function is very similar to one adopted on an heuristic basis.

  7. On-line real time gamma analysis of primary coolant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalechstein, W.; Kupca, S.; Lipsett, J.J.

    1985-10-01

    The evolution of failed fuel monitoring at CANDU power stations is briefly summarized and the design of the latest system for failed fuel detection at a multi-unit power station is described. At each reactor, the system employs a germanium spectrometer combined with a novel spectrum analyzer that simultaneously accumulates the gamma-ray spectrum of the coolant and provides the control room with the concentration of radioisotope activity in the coolant for the gaseous fission products Xe-133, Xe-135, Kr-88 and I-131 in real time and with statistical precision independent of count rate. A gross gamma monitor is included to provide independent information on the level of radioactivity in the coolant and extend the measurement range at very high count rates. A central computer system archives spectra received from all four spectrum analyzers and provides both the activity concentrations and the release rates of specified isotopes. Compared with previous systems the current design offers improvements in that the activity concentrations are updated much more frequently, improved tools are provided for long term surveillance of the heat transport system and the monitor is more reliable and less costly

  8. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft 2 per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft 2 per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements

  9. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft/sup 2/ per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft/sup 2/ per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements.

  10. A Policy Alternative Analysis and Simplified Scoring Method to Assess Policy Options for Marine Conservation Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharuga, S. M.; Reams, M.

    2016-12-01

    Traditional approaches to marine conservation and management are increasingly being found as inadequate; and, consequently, more complex ecosystem-based approaches to protecting marine ecosystems are growing in popularity. Ecosystem-based approaches, however, can be particularly challenging at a local level where resources and knowledge of specific marine conservation components may be limited. Marine conservation areas are known by a variety of names globally, but can be divided into four general types: Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), Marine Reserves, Fishery Reserves, and Ecological Reserves (i.e. "no take zones"). Each type of conservation area involves specific objectives, program elements and likely socioeconomic consequences. As an aid to community stakeholders and decision makers considering establishment of a marine conservation area, a simple method to compare and score the objectives and attributes of these four approaches is presented. A range of evaluation criteria are considered, including conservation of biodiversity and habitat, effective fishery management, overall cost-effectiveness, fairness to current users, enhancement of recreational activities, fairness to taxpayers, and conservation of genetic diversity. Environmental and socioeconomic costs and benefits of each type of conservation area are also considered. When exploring options for managing the marine environment, particular resource conservation needs must be evaluated individually on a case-by-case basis and the type of conservation area established must be tailored accordingly. However, MPAs are often more successful than other conservation areas because they offer a compromise between the needs of society and the environment, and therefore represent a viable option for ecosystem-based management.

  11. Preliminary Analysis on the Management Options of IRT-DPRK Research Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jung-Hyun; Kim, Minsoo; Hwang, Yongsoo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Although IRT-DPRK was upgraded several times, operation lifetime was already exhausted and thus management policy is needed to deal with the aging of IRT-DPRK. For example, IRT- 2000 type nuclear reactors in Georgia and Bulgaria had been shut down to refurbish or decommissioned to establish new low power facilities. However, the existing negotiations and agreements related to the nuclear issues on North Korea have been focused on the 'denuclearization', and thus the issues on the IRTDPRK were not handled. In recent, a group of USA scientists has suggested that IRT-DPRK should be refurbished to establish the 'Scientific cent for excellence' like the Cooperative Threat Reduction program applied in Russia and the former Soviet Union (FSU). In this paper, we examined the several options to manage the IRT-DPRK through the study of similar foreign cases. Due to the lack of the detailed and standardized information, it is impossible to suggest the best option at this moment. In order to do that, the further research on the detailed procedures, radioactive wastes, the standards of safety and security are needed.

  12. Evaluation of food waste disposal options by LCC analysis from the perspective of global warming: Jungnang case, South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Mi-Hyung; Song, Yul-Eum; Song, Han-Byul; Kim, Jung-Wk; Hwang, Sun-Jin

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Various food waste disposal options were evaluated from the perspective of global warming. → Costs of the options were compared by the methodology of life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis. → Carbon price and valuable by-products were used for analyzing environmental credits. → The benefit-cost ratio of wet feeding scenario was the highest. - Abstract: The costs associated with eight food waste disposal options, dry feeding, wet feeding, composting, anaerobic digestion, co-digestion with sewage sludge, food waste disposer, incineration, and landfilling, were evaluated in the perspective of global warming and energy and/or resource recovery. An expanded system boundary was employed to compare by-products. Life cycle cost was analyzed through the entire disposal process, which included discharge, separate collection, transportation, treatment, and final disposal stages, all of which were included in the system boundary. Costs and benefits were estimated by an avoided impact. Environmental benefits of each system per 1 tonne of food waste management were estimated using carbon prices resulting from CO 2 reduction by avoided impact, as well as the prices of by-products such as animal feed, compost, and electricity. We found that the cost of landfilling was the lowest, followed by co-digestion. The benefits of wet feeding systems were the highest and landfilling the lowest.

  13. Evaluation of natural gas supply options for south east and central Europe. Part 1: Indicator definitions and single indicator analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afgan, Naim H.; Carvalho, Maria G.; Pilavachi, Petros A.; Martins, Nelson

    2007-01-01

    The need for diversification of energy sources is an immanent goal in long term energy strategy. In particular, this is of great importance for the natural gas supply. In this respect, evaluation and assessment of potential natural gas resources and their relation to consumers is of great importance. The natural gas supply in Europe is one of the main issues of European energy strategy to be followed in the future. In particular, the natural gas supply in the southeast countries is important. This paper provides a framework for understanding how much natural gas is available for use in south east and central Europe as well as the links to the recent supply of natural gas and its transport. The analysis is focused on evaluation of the potential routes for natural gas supply to the south east and central European countries. The potential options included in this analysis are the Yamal Route; Nabucco Route; West Balkan Route; LNG NEUM Route and Gas by Wire Route. In this analysis, attention is focused on the following indicators for assessment of potential options: environmental indicator; NG cost indicator; NG transport and royalty indicator; investment indicator; and NG demand indicator. The first part of this paper is devoted to the definition of the indicators and to single indicator analysis. (author)

  14. REAL TIME ANALYSIS OF WIRELESS CONTROLLER AREA NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardine Immaculate Mary

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available It is widely known that Control Area Networks (CAN are used in real-time, distributed and parallel processing which cover manufacture plants, humanoid robots, networking fields, etc., In applications where wireless conditions are encountered it is convenient to continue the exchange of CAN frames within the Wireless CAN (WCAN. The WCAN considered in this research is based on wireless token ring protocol (WTRP; a MAC protocol for wireless networks to reduce the number of retransmissions due to collision and the wired counterpart CAN attribute on message based communication. WCAN uses token frame method to provide channel access to the nodes in the system. This method allow all the nodes to share common broadcast channel by taken turns in transmitting upon receiving the token frame which is circulating within the network for specified amount of time. This method provides high throughput in bounded latency environment, consistent and predictable delays and good packet delivery ratio. The most important factor to consider when evaluating a control network is the end-to-end time delay between sensors, controllers, and actuators. The correct operation of a control system depends on the timeliness of the data coming over the network, and thus, a control network should be able to guarantee message delivery within a bounded transmission time. The proposed WCAN is modeled and simulated using QualNet, and its average end to end delay and packet delivery ratio (PDR are calculated. The parameters boundaries of WCAN are evaluated to guarantee a maximum throughput and a minimum latency time, in the case of wireless communications, precisely WCAN.

  15. Image analysis of multiple moving wood pieces in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weixing

    2006-02-01

    This paper presents algorithms for image processing and image analysis of wood piece materials. The algorithms were designed for auto-detection of wood piece materials on a moving conveyor belt or a truck. When wood objects on moving, the hard task is to trace the contours of the objects in n optimal way. To make the algorithms work efficiently in the plant, a flexible online system was designed and developed, which mainly consists of image acquisition, image processing, object delineation and analysis. A number of newly-developed algorithms can delineate wood objects with high accuracy and high speed, and in the wood piece analysis part, each wood piece can be characterized by a number of visual parameters which can also be used for constructing experimental models directly in the system.

  16. Analysis and Optimization of Distributed Real-Time Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2006-01-01

    and scheduling policies. In this context, the task of designing such systems is becoming increasingly difficult. The success of new adequate design methods depends on the availability of efficient analysis as well as optimization techniques. In this paper, we present both analysis and optimization approaches...... characteristic to this class of systems: mapping of functionality, the optimization of the access to the communication channel, and the assignment of scheduling policies to processes. Optimization heuristics aiming at producing a schedulable system, with a given amount of resources, are presented....

  17. Expensing options solves nothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlman, William A

    2002-12-01

    The use of stock options for executive compensation has become a lightning rod for public anger, and it's easy to see why. Many top executives grew hugely rich on the back of the gains they made on their options, profits they've been able to keep even as the value they were supposed to create disappeared. The supposed scam works like this: Current accounting regulations let companies ignore the cost of option grants on their income statements, so they can award valuable option packages without affecting reported earnings. Not charging the cost of the grants supposedly leads to overstated earnings, which purportedly translate into unrealistically high share prices, permitting top executives to realize big gains when they exercise their options. If an accounting anomaly is the problem, then the solution seems obvious: Write off executive share options against the current year's revenues. The trouble is, Sahlman writes, expensing option grants won't give us a more accurate view of earnings, won't add any information not already included in the financial statements, and won't even lead to equal treatment of different forms of executive pay. Far worse, expensing evades the real issue, which is whether compensation (options and other-wise) does what it's supposed to do--namely, help a company recruit, retain, and provide the right people with appropriate performance incentives. Any performance-based compensation system has the potential to encourage cheating. Only ethical management, sensible governance, adequate internal control systems, and comprehensive disclosure will save the investor from disaster. If, Sahlman warns, we pass laws that require the expensing of options, thinking that's fixed the fundamental flaws in corporate America's accounting, we will have missed a golden opportunity to focus on the much more extensive defects in the present system.

  18. Real Time Analysis: Does Navy Have a Plan?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-12

    our militaries face. Peter Tran, senior director of the worldwide advanced cyber defense practice at RSA , commented that “Historically, the...should look like for analysis on the data Navy needs to analyze when he stated: Computers, communications links, encryption devices, and other IT allow

  19. Mass spectrometry for real-time quantitative breath analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Smith, D.; Španěl, Patrik; Herbig, J.; Beauchamp, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2014), 027101 ISSN 1752-7155 Institutional support: RVO:61388955 Keywords : breath analysis * proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry * selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 4.631, year: 2014

  20. The economic analysis of power market architectures: application to real-time market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saguan, M.

    2007-04-01

    This work contributes to the economic analysis of power market architectures. A modular framework is used to separate problems of market design in different modules. The work's goal is to study real-time market design. A two-stage market equilibrium model is used to analyse the two main real-time designs: the 'market' and the 'mechanism' (with penalty). Numerical simulations show that design applied in real-time is not neutral vis-a-vis of energy markets sequence and the competition dynamic. Designs using penalty (mechanisms) cause distortions, inefficiencies and can create barriers to entry. The size of distortions is given by the temporal position of the gate that closure the forward markets. This model has also allowed us to show the key role of real-time integration between zones and the importance of good harmonization between real-time designs of each zone. (author)

  1. Budget Options

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    This volume-part of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) annual report to the House and Senate Committees on the Budget-is intended to help inform policymakers about options for the federal budget...

  2. Phase-shifting Real-time Holographic Microscopy applied in micro-structures surface analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, I V; Gesualdi, M R R; Muramatsu, M; Ricardo, J

    2011-01-01

    The microscopic real-time analysis of micro structured materials is of great importance in various domains of science and technology. For other hand, the holographic interferometry comprises a group of powerful optical methods for non-destructive testing in surface analysis. The holographic microscopy uses the holographic interferometric techniques to obtain quantitative intensity and phase information of the optical waves by microscopic systems. With the development of CCD cameras, computers (hardware and software), and new materials for holographic recording, these techniques can be used to replace the classical form of registration and became promising tools in surface analysis. In this work, we developed a prototype of Photorefractive and Digital Holographic Microscope for real-time analysis of micro-structured systems based on the phase-shifting real-time holographic interferometry techniques. Using this apparatus, we are made analysis of shapes and surfaces to obtain the phase maps and the 3D profiles of some samples.

  3. Analyzing the Risks Embedded in Option Prices with rndfittool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Andrea; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a new computational tool for the analysis of the risks embedded in a set of prices of European-style options. The software enables the estimation of the risk-neutral density (RND) from the observed option prices by means of orthogonal polynomial expansions. Orthogonal...... polynomials offer a viable alternative to more standard techniques based on interpolation and estimation of the second-order derivatives of option prices. The app rndfittool is available on GitHub and its usage is illustrated with examples based on real data....

  4. Wind power integration using individual heat pumps – Analysis of different heat storage options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Lund, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Significant installations of individual heat pumps are expected in future energy systems due to their economic competitiveness. This case study of the Danish energy system in 2020 with 50% wind power shows that individual heat pumps and heat storages can contribute to the integration of wind power....... Heat accumulation tanks and passive heat storage in the construction are investigated as two alternative storage options in terms of their ability to increase wind power utilisation and to provide cost-effective fuel savings. Results show that passive heat storage can enable equivalent to larger...... reductions in excess electricity production and fuel consumption than heat accumulation tanks. Moreover, passive heat storage is found to be significantly more cost-effective than heat accumulation tanks. In terms of reducing fuel consumption of the energy system, the installation of heat pumps is the most...

  5. Linking renewable energy CDM projects and TGC schemes: An analysis of different options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Del Rio, Pablo [Department of Economics and Business, Facultad de Ciencias Juridicas y Sociales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, C/ Cobertizo de S. Pedro Martir s/n., Toledo-45071 (Spain)]. E-mail: pablo.rio@uclm.es

    2006-11-15

    Renewable energy CDM (RE-CDM) projects encourage cost-effective GHG mitigation and enhanced sustainable development opportunities for the host countries. CERs from CDM projects include the value of the former benefits (i.e., 'climate change benefits'), whereas the second can be given value through the issuing and trading of tradable green certificates (TGCs). Countries could agree to trade these TGCs, leading to additional revenues for the investors in renewable energy projects and, therefore, further encouraging the deployment of CDM projects, currently facing significant barriers. However, the design of a combination of CDM projects and TGC schemes raises several conflicting issues and leads to trade-offs. This paper analyses these issues, identifies the alternatives that may exist to link TGC schemes with RE-CDM projects and analyses the impacts of those options on different variables and actors.

  6. Linking renewable energy CDM projects and TGC schemes: An analysis of different options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Del Rio, Pablo

    2006-01-01

    Renewable energy CDM (RE-CDM) projects encourage cost-effective GHG mitigation and enhanced sustainable development opportunities for the host countries. CERs from CDM projects include the value of the former benefits (i.e., 'climate change benefits'), whereas the second can be given value through the issuing and trading of tradable green certificates (TGCs). Countries could agree to trade these TGCs, leading to additional revenues for the investors in renewable energy projects and, therefore, further encouraging the deployment of CDM projects, currently facing significant barriers. However, the design of a combination of CDM projects and TGC schemes raises several conflicting issues and leads to trade-offs. This paper analyses these issues, identifies the alternatives that may exist to link TGC schemes with RE-CDM projects and analyses the impacts of those options on different variables and actors

  7. Analysis of radwaste material management options for experimental DUPIC fuel fabrication process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, H. H.; Park, J. J.; Yang, M. S.; Kim, K. H.; Shin, J. M.; Lee, H. S.; Ko, W. I.; Lee, J. W.; Yim, S. P.; Hong, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Baik, S. Y.; Song, W. S.; Yoo, B. O.; Lee, E. P.; Kang, I. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-03-01

    This report is desirable to review management options in advance for radioactive waste generated from manufacturing experiment of DUPIC nuclear fuel as well as residual nuclear material and dismantled equipment. This report was written for helping researchers working in related facilities to DUPIC project understanding management of DUPIC radioactive waste as well as fellows in DUPIC project. Also, it will be used as basic material to prove transparency and safeguardability of DUPIC fuel cycle. In order to meet these purposes, this report includes basic experiment plan for manufacturing DUPIC nuclear fuel, outlines for DUPIC manufacturing facility and equipment, arising source and estimated amount of radioactive waste, waste classification and packing, transport cask, transport procedures. 15 refs., 31 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  8. Interactive Construction Digital Tools With Real Time Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klitgaard, Jens; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2007-01-01

    . The aim of this research is to look into integrated digital design and analysis tools in order to find out if it is suited for use by architects and designers or only by specialists and technicians - and if not, then to look at what can be done to make them more available to architects and designers...... an architect-engineer or hybrid practitioner works simultaneously with both aesthetic and technical design requirements. In this paper the problem of a vague or not existing link between digital design tools, used by architects and designers, and the analysis tools developed by and for engineers is considered......The recent developments in computational design tools have evolved into a sometimes purely digital process which opens up for new perspectives and problems in the sketching process. One of the interesting possibilities lay within the hybrid practitioner- or architect-engineer approach, where...

  9. A System of Indicators for Financial Analysis of the Municipal Real Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Feschiyan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a system of financial indicators for the efficiency of use of municipal real property. Such a system must provide for meeting the information needs of a number of internal and external consumers and is of primary significance in the analysis of municipalities’ overall financial condition. The following may be pointed out as the major aspects of the practical analysis: i the analysis of the municipality’s provision with immoveable property; ii the analysis of the efficient use of certain categories of municipal real property. The paper aims at clarifying the major moments in the analysis of the structure, composition, and effective use of municipal real property, and the determination of definite indicators to be applied to this analysis oriented towards its implementation. The wide variety of parameters is reduced to a system of 16 indicators: reporting value, depreciation, ratio of replacement, ratio of cost efficiency, ratio of revenue efficiency, return on total assets, return on revenues, return on expenses, ratio of the fitness, ratio of the repair, ratio of real energy provision, ratio of workload, present value of a series of regular cash flows, equivalent yield model, return on investment, return on investment. The paper presents the structure and content of the indicators of the analysis of the municipal real property, as well as the input of these indicators. The estimation (values necessary to determine the indicators, the indicators themselves and their meaning make it possible to study the effectiveness of the operations (functioning of the municipal real property in terms of description of its physical condition, structure, content, purpose and functions, which generates revenues or brings expenditures to the municipality. The system of indicators provides for decision making with a view to boosting the efficiency of public sector management and more specifically – the management of municipal real property.

  10. Real time computer control of a nonlinear Multivariable System via Linearization and Stability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raza, K.S.M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that if a complicated nonlinear, non-square, state-coupled multi variable system is smartly linearized and subjected to a thorough stability analysis then we can achieve our design objectives via a controller which will be quite simple (in term of resource usage and execution time) and very efficient (in terms of robustness). Further the aim is to implement this controller via computer in a real time environment. Therefore first a nonlinear mathematical model of the system is achieved. An intelligent work is done to decouple the multivariable system. Linearization and stability analysis techniques are employed for the development of a linearized and mathematically sound control law. Nonlinearities like the saturation in actuators are also been catered. The controller is then discretized using Runge-Kutta integration. Finally the discretized control law is programmed in a computer in a real time environment. The programme is done in RT -Linux using GNU C for the real time realization of the control scheme. The real time processes, like sampling and controlled actuation, and the non real time processes, like graphical user interface and display, are programmed as different tasks. The issue of inter process communication, between real time and non real time task is addressed quite carefully. The results of this research pursuit are presented graphically. (author)

  11. Cost Analysis for Real-time Java Scoped-memory Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delvin Defoe

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Java has recently joined C and C++ as a development platform for real-time and embedded applications. Java's garbage collection, while generally a useful feature, can be problematic for these applications: garbage collection occurs at unpredictable times and its latency is typically unbounded. This can compromise necessary real-time guarantees. To overcome these limitations, the Real-Time for Java Expert Group (RTJEG proposed the Real-Time Specification for Java (RTSJ, which introduced new memory models and new threads to utilize those models. One such memory model uses scoped-memory areas, which work best in the context of a NoHeapRealtimeThread (NHRT. Although much work has been done with scoped-memory areas and NHRTs, there is no system-independent analysis of their costs. In this article we present an asymptotic analysis for RTSJ scoped-memory areas and NHRTs.

  12. Hybrid Real-time Zero-day Malware Analysis and Reporting System

    OpenAIRE

    Ratinder Kaur; Maninder Singh

    2016-01-01

    To understand completely the malicious intents of a zero-day malware there is really no automated way. There is no single best approach for malware analysis so it demands to combine existing static, dynamic and manual malware analysis techniques in a single unit. In this paper a hybrid real-time analysis and reporting system is presented. The proposed system integrates various malware analysis tools and utilities in a component-based architecture. The system automatica...

  13. GetReal in network meta-analysis : a review of the methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Efthimiou, Orestis; Debray, Thomas P A; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Trelle, Sven; Panayidou, Klea; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Shang, Aijing; Salanti, Georgia

    2016-01-01

    Pairwise meta-analysis is an established statistical tool for synthesizing evidence from multiple trials, but it is informative only about the relative efficacy of two specific interventions. The usefulness of pairwise meta-analysis is thus limited in real-life medical practice, where many competing

  14. Flipping the analytical coin : closing the information flow loop in high speed (real time) analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.E. Shahroudi

    1997-01-01

    textabstractAnalysis modules tend to be set up as one way flow of information, i.e a clear distinction between cause and effect or input and output. However, as the speed of analysis approaches real time (or faster than movie rate), it becomes increasingly difficult for an external user to

  15. Validation of an intermediate heat exchanger model for real time analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzanos, C.P.

    1986-11-01

    A new method was presented for LMFBR intermediate heat exchanger (IHX) analysis in real time for purposes of continuous on-line data validation, plant state verification and fault identification. For the validation of this methodology the EBR-II IHX transient during Test 8A was analyzed. This paper presents the results of this analysis

  16. Recent Developments in Real and Harmonic Analysis In Honor of Carlos Segovia

    CERN Document Server

    Cabrelli, Carlos A

    2008-01-01

    Featuring a collection of invited chapters dedicated to Carlos Segovia, this volume examines the developments in real and harmonic analysis. It includes topics such as: Vector-valued singular integral equations; Harmonic analysis related to Hermite expansions; Gas flow in porous media; and, Global well-posedness of the KPI Equation

  17. Analysis of writing inks on paper using direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Roger W; McClelland, John F

    2013-09-10

    Ink analysis is central to questioned document examination. We applied direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry (DART MS) to ballpoint, gel, and fluid writing ink analysis. DART MS acquires the mass spectrum of an ink while it is still on a document without altering the appearance of the document. Spectra were acquired from ink on a variety of papers, and the spectrum of the blank paper could be subtracted out to produce a cleanly isolated ink spectrum in most cases. Only certain heavy or heavily processed papers interfered. The time since an ink is written on paper has a large effect on its spectrum. DART spectra change radically during the first few months after an ink is written as the more volatile components evaporate, but the spectra stabilize after that. A library-search study involving 166 well-aged inks assessed the ability to identify inks from their DART spectra. The aggregate success rate was 92%. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Life cycle assessment integrated with thermodynamic analysis of bio-fuel options for solid oxide fuel cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jiefeng; Babbitt, Callie W; Trabold, Thomas A

    2013-01-01

    A methodology that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with thermodynamic analysis is developed and applied to evaluate the environmental impacts of producing biofuels from waste biomass, including biodiesel from waste cooking oil, ethanol from corn stover, and compressed natural gas from municipal solid wastes. Solid oxide fuel cell-based auxiliary power units using bio-fuel as the hydrogen precursor enable generation of auxiliary electricity for idling heavy-duty trucks. Thermodynamic analysis is applied to evaluate the fuel conversion efficiency and determine the amount of fuel feedstock needed to generate a unit of electrical power. These inputs feed into an LCA that compares energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of different fuel pathways. Results show that compressed natural gas from municipal solid wastes is an optimal bio-fuel option for SOFC-APU applications in New York State. However, this methodology can be regionalized within the U.S. or internationally to account for different fuel feedstock options. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis of Technology Options to Reduce the Fuel Consumption of Idling Trucks; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stodolsky, F.; Gaines, L.; Vyas, A.

    2000-01-01

    Long-haul trucks idling overnight consume more than 838 million gallons (20 million barrels) of fuel annually. Idling also emits pollutants. Truck drivers idle their engines primarily to (1) heat or cool the cab and/or sleeper, (2) keep the fuel warm in winter, and (3) keep the engine warm in the winter so that the engine is easier to start. Alternatives to overnight idling could save much of this fuel, reduce emissions, and cut operating costs. Several fuel-efficient alternatives to idling are available to provide heating and cooling: (1) direct-fired heater for cab/sleeper heating, with or without storage cooling; (2) auxiliary power units; and (3) truck stop electrification. Many of these technologies have drawbacks that limit market acceptance. Options that supply electricity are economically viable for trucks that are idled for 1,000-3,000 or more hours a year, while heater units could be used across the board. Payback times for fleets, which would receive quantity discounts on the prices, would be somewhat shorter

  20. An environmental analysis of options for utilising wasted food and food residue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfield, Thomas L; White, Eoin; Holden, Nicholas M

    2016-12-01

    The potential environmental impact of wasted food minimisation versus its utilisation in a circular bioeconomy is investigated based on a case study of Ireland. The amount of wasted food and food residue (WFFR) produced in 2010 was used for business-as-usual, (a) and four management options were assessed, (b) minimisation, (c) composting, (d) anaerobic digestion and (e) incineration. The environmental impacts Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP) and Eutrophication Potential (EP) were considered. A carbon return on investment (CRoI) was calculated for the three processing technologies (c-e). The results showed that a minimisation strategy for wasted food would result in the greatest reduction of all three impacts, -4.5 Mt CO 2 -e (GWP), -11.4 kt PO 4 3 -e (EP) and -43.9 kt SO 2 -e (AP) compared to business as usual. For WFFR utilisation in the circular bioeconomy, anaerobic digestion resulted in the lowest environmental impact and best CRoI of -0.84 kg CO 2 -e per Euro. From an economic perspective, for minimisation to be beneficial, 0.15 kg of wasted food would need to be reduced per Euro spent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Annex 34 : task 1 : analysis of biodiesel options : biomass-derived diesel fuels : final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGill, R [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States); Aakko-Saksa, P; Nylund, N O [TransEnergy Consulting Ltd., Helsinki (Finland)

    2009-06-15

    Biofuels are derived from woody biomass, non-woody biomass, and organic wastes. The properties of vegetable oil feedstocks can have profound effects on the properties of the finished biodiesel product. However, all biodiesel fuels have beneficial effects on engine emissions. This report discussed the use of biodiesel fuels as replacements for part of the diesel fuel consumed throughout the world. Biodiesel fuels currently being produced from fatty acid esters today were reviewed, as well as some of the more advanced diesel replacement fuels. The report was produced as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Advanced Motor Fuels (AMF) Implementing Agreement Annex 34, and was divided into 14 sections: (1) an introduction, (2) biodiesel and biomass, (3) an explanation of biodiesel, (4) properties of finished biodiesel fuels, (5) exhaust emissions of finished biodiesel fuels and blends, (6) life-cycle emissions and energy, (7) international biodiesel (FAME) technical standards and specifications, (8) growth in production and use of biodiesel fuels, (9) biofuel refineries, (10) process technology, (11) development and status of biorefineries, (12) comparison of options to produce biobased diesel fuels, (13) barriers and gaps in knowledge, and (14) references. 113 refs., 37 tabs., 74 figs.

  2. An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

  3. THE EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Chen Chiang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the REIT industry is relatively new in Singapore, the objective of this research is to examine the operation efficiency among firms in the industry through the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. In addition, the method of Tobit regression is applied to investigate the impact factors on efficiency. The results are as follows. First, none of 14 firms analyzed performs relatively efficiently based on the average efficiency scores over the sample periods of 2007 to first quarter of 2015. Nevertheless, it is found that First REIT and Suntec REIT are the most efficient and least efficient REITs respectively. Second, ROA is positively correlated to efficiency scores while the negative relationship is found with the debt ratio. Third, regarding property-type, retail REITSs perform better than commercial ones on average. However, the most efficient group is “others” which consists of one hospitality/residential REITs, one healthcare REITs, and three industrial REITs. Fourth, geographical diversification may not affect REIT’s efficiency. Meanwhile, REITs holding more properties overseas perform better than their counterparts on average. Last, in regards to size, small-size REITs significantly perform better in efficiency than those in other categories. Especially, medium-size and largesize REITs do not have significant differences on average in efficiency.

  4. Towards Real-Time Detection of Gait Events on Different Terrains Using Time-Frequency Analysis and Peak Heuristics Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hui; Ji, Ning; Samuel, Oluwarotimi Williams; Cao, Yafei; Zhao, Zheyi; Chen, Shixiong; Li, Guanglin

    2016-10-01

    Real-time detection of gait events can be applied as a reliable input to control drop foot correction devices and lower-limb prostheses. Among the different sensors used to acquire the signals associated with walking for gait event detection, the accelerometer is considered as a preferable sensor due to its convenience of use, small size, low cost, reliability, and low power consumption. Based on the acceleration signals, different algorithms have been proposed to detect toe off (TO) and heel strike (HS) gait events in previous studies. While these algorithms could achieve a relatively reasonable performance in gait event detection, they suffer from limitations such as poor real-time performance and are less reliable in the cases of up stair and down stair terrains. In this study, a new algorithm is proposed to detect the gait events on three walking terrains in real-time based on the analysis of acceleration jerk signals with a time-frequency method to obtain gait parameters, and then the determination of the peaks of jerk signals using peak heuristics. The performance of the newly proposed algorithm was evaluated with eight healthy subjects when they were walking on level ground, up stairs, and down stairs. Our experimental results showed that the mean F1 scores of the proposed algorithm were above 0.98 for HS event detection and 0.95 for TO event detection on the three terrains. This indicates that the current algorithm would be robust and accurate for gait event detection on different terrains. Findings from the current study suggest that the proposed method may be a preferable option in some applications such as drop foot correction devices and leg prostheses.

  5. Vulvar and vaginal atrophy in postmenopausal women: findings from the REVIVE (REal Women's VIews of Treatment Options for Menopausal Vaginal ChangEs) survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsberg, Sheryl A; Wysocki, Susan; Magnus, Leslie; Krychman, Michael L

    2013-07-01

    Vulvar and vaginal atrophy (VVA) is a chronic medical condition experienced by many postmenopausal women. Symptoms include dyspareunia (pain with intercourse), vaginal dryness, and irritation and may affect sexual activities, relationships, and activities of daily life. The aim of this study is to characterize postmenopausal women's experience with and perception of VVA symptoms, interactions with healthcare professionals (HCPs), and available treatment options. An online survey was conducted in the United States in women from KnowledgePanel(®) , a 56,000-member probability-selected Internet panel projectable to the overall US population. Altogether, 3,046 postmenopausal women with VVA symptoms (the largest US cohort of recent surveys) responded to questions about their knowledge of VVA, impact of symptoms on their activities, communication with HCPs, and use of available treatments. Percent is calculated as the ratio of response over total responding for each question for all and stratified participants. The most common VVA symptoms were dryness (55% of participants), dyspareunia (44%), and irritation (37%). VVA symptoms affected enjoyment of sex in 59% of participants. Additionally, interference with sleep, general enjoyment of life, and temperament were reported by 24%, 23%, and 23% of participants, respectively. Few women attributed symptoms to menopause (24%) or hormonal changes (12%). Of all participants, 56% had ever discussed VVA symptoms with an HCP and 40% currently used VVA-specific topical treatments (vaginal over-the-counter [OTC] products [29%] and vaginal prescription therapies [11%]). Of those who had discussed symptoms with an HCP, 62% used OTC products. Insufficient symptom relief and inconvenience were cited as major limitations of OTC products and concerns about side effects and cancer risk limited use of topical vaginal prescription therapies. VVA symptoms are common in postmenopausal women. Significant barriers to treatment include lack of

  6. Consolidated fuel reprocessing programme: Analysis of various options for the breeder fuel cycle in the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stradley, J.G.; Burch, W.D.; Yook, H.R.

    1986-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has established a programme to develop innovative liquid metal reactor (LMR) designs to assist in developing future U.S. reactor strategy. The paper describes studies in progress to examine various fuel cycle strategies that relate to the reactor strategy. Three potential fuel cycle options that focus on supporting an initial 1300 MW(e) reactor station have been defined: (1) Completion and utilization of the Breeder Reprocessing Engineering Test/Secure Automated Fabrication (BRET/SAF) in the Fuels and Materials Examination Facility (FMEF) at Hanford, Washington; (2) a co-located fuel cycle facility; and (3) delayed closure of the fuel cycle for five to ten years. The BRET, designed as a development facility, has sufficient capacity to service the needs of an initial module at an LMR station. It appears feasible to increase this capacity and to utilize SAF in the FMEF to accommodate the projected output (up to 35 MtHM/year) from the 1300 MW(e) liquid-metal concepts under study. Plans developed within the United States Consolidated Management Office for an initial reactor project have envisioned that cost savings could be realized by delaying the closure of the fuel cycle as long as supplies of plutonium could be obtained relatively inexpensively. This might prove to be only five to ten years, but even that period might be long enough for the fuel cycle costs to be spread over more than one reactor rather than loaded on the initial project. This concept is being explored as is the question of the future coupling of a light water reactor reprocessing industry for plutonium supply to breeder recycle

  7. Northern Cheyenne Reservation Coal Bed Natural Resource Assessment and Analysis of Produced Water Disposal Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaochang Wo; David A. Lopez; Jason Whiteman Sr.; Bruce A. Reynolds

    2004-07-01

    Coalbed methane (CBM) development in the Powder River Basin (PRB) is currently one of the most active gas plays in the United States. Monthly production in 2002 reached about 26 BCF in the Wyoming portion of the basin. Coalbed methane reserves for the Wyoming portion of the basin are approximately 25 trillion cubic feet (TCF). Although coal beds in the Powder River Basin extend well into Montana, including the area of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, the only CBM development in Montana is the CX Field, operated by the Fidelity Exploration, near the Wyoming border. The Northern Cheyenne Reservation is located on the northwest flank of the PRB in Montana with a total land of 445,000 acres. The Reservation consists of five districts, Lame Deer, Busby, Ashland, Birney, and Muddy Cluster and has a population of 4,470 according to the 2000 Census. The CBM resource represents a significant potential asset to the Northern Cheyenne Indian Tribe. Methane gas in coal beds is trapped by hydrodynamic pressure. Because the production of CBM involves the dewatering of coalbed to allow the release of methane gas from the coal matrix, the relatively large volume of the co-produced water and its potential environmental impacts are the primary concerns for the Tribe. Presented in this report is a study conducted by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology (MBMG) in partnership with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe to assess the Tribe’s CBM resources and evaluate applicable water handling options. The project was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Native American Initiative of the National Petroleum Technology Office, under contract DEAC07- 99ID13727. Matching funds were granted by the MBMG in supporting the work of geologic study and mapping conducted at MBMG.

  8. Analysis of fuel options for the breakeven core configuration of the Advanced Recycling Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauff, N.E.; Klim, T.K.; Taiwo, T.A. [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL (United States); Fiorina, C. [Politecnico di Milano, Milan (Italy); Franceschini, F. [Westinghouse Electric Company LLC., Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2013-07-01

    A trade-off study is performed to determine the impacts of various fuel forms on the core design and core physics characteristics of the sodium-cooled Toshiba- Westinghouse Advanced Recycling Reactor (ARR). The fuel forms include oxide, nitride, and metallic forms of U and Th. The ARR core configuration is redesigned with driver and blanket regions in order to achieve breakeven fissile breeding performance with the various fuel types. State-of-the-art core physics tools are used for the analyses. In addition, a quasi-static reactivity balance approach is used for a preliminary comparison of the inherent safety performances of the various fuel options. Thorium-fueled cores exhibit lower breeding ratios and require larger blankets compared to the U-fueled cores, which is detrimental to core compactness and increases reprocessing and manufacturing requirements. The Th cores also exhibit higher reactivity swings through each cycle, which penalizes reactivity control and increases the number of control rods required. On the other hand, using Th leads to drastic reductions in void and coolant expansion coefficients of reactivity, with the potential for enhancing inherent core safety. Among the U-fueled ARR cores, metallic and nitride fuels result in higher breeding ratios due to their higher heavy metal densities. On the other hand, oxide fuels provide a softer spectrum, which increases the Doppler effect and reduces the positive sodium void worth. A lower fuel temperature is obtained with the metallic and nitride fuels due to their higher thermal conductivities and compatibility with sodium bonds. This is especially beneficial from an inherent safety point of view since it facilitates the reactor cool-down during loss of power removal transients. The advantages in terms of inherent safety of nitride and metallic fuels are maintained when using Th fuel. However, there is a lower relative increase in heavy metal density and in breeding ratio going from oxide to metallic

  9. Noninvasive Strategy Based on Real-Time in Vivo Cataluminescence Monitoring for Clinical Breath Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Runkun; Huang, Wanting; Li, Gongke; Hu, Yufei

    2017-03-21

    The development of noninvasive methods for real-time in vivo analysis is of great significant, which provides powerful tools for medical research and clinical diagnosis. In the present work, we described a new strategy based on cataluminescence (CTL) for real-time in vivo clinical breath analysis. To illustrate such strategy, a homemade real-time CTL monitoring system characterized by coupling an online sampling device with a CTL sensor for sevoflurane (SVF) was designed, and a real-time in vivo method for the monitoring of SVF in exhaled breath was proposed. The accuracy of the method was evaluated by analyzing the real exhaled breath samples, and the results were compared with those obtained by GC/MS. The measured data obtained by the two methods were in good agreement. Subsequently, the method was applied to real-time monitoring of SVF in exhaled breath from rat models of the control group to investigate elimination pharmacokinetics. In order to further probe the potential of the method for clinical application, the elimination pharmacokinetics of SVF from rat models of control group, liver fibrosis group alcohol liver group, and nonalcoholic fatty liver group were monitored by the method. The raw data of pharmacokinetics of different groups were normalized and subsequently subjected to linear discriminant analysis (LDA). These data were transformed to canonical scores which were visualized as well-clustered with the classification accuracy of 100%, and the overall accuracy of leave-one-out cross-validation procedure is 88%, thereby indicating the utility of the potential of the method for liver disease diagnosis. Our strategy undoubtedly opens up a new door for real-time clinical analysis in a pain-free and noninvasive way and also guides a promising development direction for CTL.

  10. Development of Transient-Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) for real-time applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niederauer, G.F.; Giguere, P.T.; Lime, J.F.; Knight, T.D.; Ashy, O.; Fakory, R.

    1997-01-01

    This is the final report of a six-month, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Nuclear-plant training simulators employ simplified one-dimensional thermal-hydraulics codes because of the demands to run in real time and with limited computing power. The objective of this project was to investigate the feasibility of using the advanced Transient-Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) in a simulator to increase the fidelity of a simulator. Many issues need to be addressed to take such a complex code from a batch engineering environment to a real-time environment. Working with simulator vendor, GSE, the authors investigated the technical issues relating to integrating TRAC into a real-time environment. They also modified a nuclear power plant model for simulator purposes and investigated its performance in real time

  11. Cost-effectiveness of available treatment options for patients suffering from severe COPD in the UK: a fully incremental analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hertel N

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Nadine Hertel1, Robert W Kotchie1, Yevgeniy Samyshkin1, Matthew Radford1, Samantha Humphreys2, Kevin Jameson21IMS Consulting Group, London, UK; 2MSD Ltd, Hoddesdon, UKPurpose: Frequent exacerbations which are both costly and potentially life-threatening are a major concern to patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, despite the availability of several treatment options. This study aimed to assess the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with alternative treatment regimens for patients with severe COPD in the UK setting.Patients and methods: A Markov cohort model was developed to predict lifetime costs, outcomes, and cost-effectiveness of various combinations of a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA, a long-acting beta agonist (LABA, an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS, and roflumilast in a fully incremental analysis. Patients willing and able to take ICS, and those refusing or intolerant to ICS were analyzed separately. Efficacy was expressed as relative rate ratios of COPD exacerbation associated with alternative treatment regimens, taken from a mixed treatment comparison. The analysis was conducted from the UK National Health Service (NHS perspective. Parameter uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: Based on the results of the fully incremental analysis a cost-effectiveness frontier was determined, indicating those treatment regimens which represent the most cost-effective use of NHS resources. For ICS-tolerant patients the cost-effectiveness frontier suggested LAMA as initial treatment. Where patients continue to exacerbate and additional therapy is required, LAMA + LABA/ICS can be a cost-effective option, followed by LAMA + LABA/ICS + roflumilast (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] versus LAMA + LABA/ICS: £16,566 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained. The ICER in ICS-intolerant patients, comparing LAMA + LABA + roflumilast versus LAMA + LABA, was £13

  12. Savannah River Plant Low-Level Waste Heat Utilization Project preliminary analysis. Volume II. Options for capturing the waste heat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-11-01

    Options for utilizing the heated SRP effluent are investigated. The temperature and availability characteristics of the heated effluent are analyzed. Technical options for energy recovery are discussed. A number of thermodynamic cycles that could generate electrical power using the energy in the heated SRP effluent are described. Conceptual designs for SRP application of two attractive options are presented. Other direct uses for the heated effluent, as heat sources for agriculture and aquaculture options are discussed

  13. Contribution to the analysis of the Czech real-estate development market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Procházková

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Czech economy went through a substantial transformation in last two decades affecting business environments of all fields. This paper presents partial results of the Czech development market ana­ly­sis. It explains the characteristics of real-estate development, real-estate development market and the complexity of the real-estate development process, including market research, site selection (using feasibility analysis, due diligence, property acquisition, project design, obtaining entitlements, financing, construction, lease-up or sale or operation, if the project is retained as and asset.The significant growth in last decade of the analyzed market is slowing down due to current greater circumspection of banks when providing credits for new development projects, drop of real pro­per­ty prices in Western Europe and at the same time greater revenues from real properties in Eastern Europe. The inhibition of the investment in commercial real property (both what number of transactions concerns, and total volume of investment is influenced by so-called mortgage crisis on the U. S. and British real estate market. In Czech market, the factors are reflected in a number of respects.The paper suggests future steps of the intended research, focus on identification of factors affecting decision-making process when preparing real-estate development project, finding interrelationships among these factors, quantification and setting weight of the factors, creation of a decision-making process model and its test on a real case. The model should contribute to decrease waste of time and money investment in these feasibility calculations by providing a tool which helps pre-select projects with higher chance of success in earlier phase.

  14. The Dematel Method in the Analysis of the Residential Real Estate Market in Bialystok

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gołąbeska Elżbieta

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is of a dual character. On the one hand, it concerns the analysis of the real estate market in terms of investment attractiveness and the influence of particular attributes of property on attractiveness itself. On the other hand, it proposes the use as a research tool selected using one of the multicriteria methods (DEMATEL, which is an alternative to commonly used statistical methods. The theoretical part of the work is completed by a brief computational example which deals with the analysis of factors affecting the prices of residential real estate on a local scale.

  15. The Real-time Frequency Spectrum Analysis of Neutron Pulse Signal Series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Yuelin; Ren Yong; Wei Biao; Feng Peng; Mi Deling; Pan Yingjun; Li Jiansheng; Ye Cenming

    2009-01-01

    The frequency spectrum analysis of neutron pulse signal is a very important method in nuclear stochastic signal processing Focused on the special '0' and '1' of neutron pulse signal series, this paper proposes new rotation-table and realizes a real-time frequency spectrum algorithm under 1G Hz sample rate based on PC with add, address and SSE. The numerical experimental results show that under the count rate of 3X10 6 s -1 , this algorithm is superior to FFTW in time-consumption and can meet the real-time requirement of frequency spectrum analysis. (authors)

  16. A Primer on Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Knowledge Value Added, Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-08

    popular pastime. Even in Biblical accounts, Roman soldiers cast lots for Christ’s robes. In earlier times, chance was something that occurred in nature...with the advent of blazing fast computing technology, our modern world of uncertainty can be explained with much more elegance through

  17. The Development and Application of a Value-Driven Aircraft Maintenance Operations Performance Assessment Model combined with Real Options Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goossens, H.G.; Beelaerts van Blokland, W.W.A.; Curran, R.

    2011-01-01

    This research paper presents the results from the development of an Aircraft Maintenance Operations Performance Assessment Model (AMOPAM). The AMOPAM is able to assess the differences in performance in between two different states or scenarios of aircraft maintenance operations and is able to

  18. Options and potentials to mitigate N2O emissions from wheat and maize fields in China: a meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, W.; Li, X.

    2017-12-01

    Upland croplands are the main source of N2O emission. Mitigation of N2O emissions from upland croplands will greatly contribute to an overall reduction of greenhouse gases from agriculture. We performed a meta-analysis to investigate the mitigation options and potential of N2O emissions from wheat and maize fields in China. Results showed that application of inhibitors in wheat and maize fields reduced36‒46% of the N2O emissions with an increase in crop yield. Cutting the application rates of nitrogen fertilizers by no more than 30% could reduce N2O emissions by 10‒18%without crop yield loss. Applications of slow (controlled-) release fertilizer fertilizers and incorporations of crop residues can significantly mitigate N2O emission from wheat fields, but this mitigation is not statistically significant in maize fields. The gross N2O emission could be reduced by 9.3‒13.9Gg N2O-N per wheat season and 10.5‒23.2 Gg N2O-N per maize season when different mitigation options are put into practices. The mitigation potential (MP) in wheat cultivation is particularly notable for Henan, Shandong, Hebei and Anhui Province, contributing 53% to the total MP in wheat fields. Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, Hebei and Henan Province showed high MP in maize cultivation, accounting for approximately 50% of the total MP in maize fields.

  19. Energy supply options for Lithuania: A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environmental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-09-01

    The Technical Co-operation (TC) project Energy Supply Options for Lithuania: A Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Demand, Supply and Environmental Analysis (LIT/0/004) was implemented 2001-2002 by a national team with support from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The principal objective of the project was to conduct a comprehensive assessment of Lithuania's future energy supply options taking into consideration the early closure of the Ignalina nuclear power plant (Ignalina NPP). Lithuania, a country in transition to full membership of the European Union, has to comply with the energy acquis (Chapter 14). The 'acquis communautaire' (the body of common rights and obligations which bind all the Member States together) must be adopted by all applicant countries. Implementing the acquis requires not only adequate legislation, well functioning institutions (e.g. a regulatory body as required in the electricity and gas directives) or schedules for restructuring the energy sector but also measures to enhance energy supply security, improvement of energy networks, efficiency improvements throughout the energy system and compliance with European environmental standards. Within the overall context of the transition to EU membership, this study focuses on the future development of the electricity sector and the impacts on energy supply security and environmental performance of a closure of Ignalina NPP by 2009, a pre-condition for accession stipulated by the European Union. The project coincided with the preparation of the new National Energy Strategy for Lithuania and therefore was set up to support the strategy formulation process

  20. A strategic analysis of future growth options for an established process control company

    OpenAIRE

    Levesque, Sheila Lynne

    2007-01-01

    This project speaks to the prevailing business environment presently encountered at WESTCOAST Controls Ltd (WESTCOAST), a leading process control company in British Columbia, Canada. The scope of the project covers topics such as company overview, external industry analysis, and internal company analysis including strategic tools such as Porter's 5 Forces. The project concludes with a recommendation for the restructuring of the control systems & solutions division for improved performan...

  1. Air source absorption heat pump in district heating: Applicability analysis and improvement options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Wei; Shi, Wenxing; Li, Xianting; Wang, Baolong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Applicability of air source absorption heat pump (ASAHP) district heating is studied. • Return temperature and energy saving rate (ESR) in various conditions are optimized. • ASAHP is more suitable for shorter distance or lower temperature district heating. • Two options can reduce the primary return temperature and improve the applicability. • The maximum ESR is improved from 13.6% to 20.4–25.6% by compression-assisted ASAHP. - Abstract: The low-temperature district heating system based on the air source absorption heat pump (ASAHP) was assessed to have great energy saving potential. However, this system may require smaller temperature drop leading to higher pump consumption for long-distance distribution. Therefore, the applicability of ASAHP-based district heating system is analyzed for different primary return temperatures, pipeline distances, pipeline resistances, supplied water temperatures, application regions, and working fluids. The energy saving rate (ESR) under different conditions are calculated, considering both the ASAHP efficiency and the distribution consumption. Results show that ASAHP system is more suitable for short-distance district heating, while for longer-distance heating, lower supplied hot water temperature is preferred. In addition, the advantages of NH 3 /H 2 O are inferior to those of NH 3 /LiNO 3 , and the advantages for warmer regions and lower pipeline resistance are more obvious. The primary return temperatures are optimized to obtain maximum ESRs, after which the suitable distances under different acceptable ESRs are summarized. To improve the applicability of ASAHP, the integration of cascaded heat exchanger (CHX) and compression-assisted ASAHP (CASAHP) are proposed, which can reduce the primary return temperature. The integration of CHX can effectively improve the applicability of ASAHP under higher supplied water temperatures. As for the utilization of CASAHP, higher compression ratio (CR) is better in

  2. Benefit/cost analysis of plutonium recycle options in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowenberg, H.; Burnham, J.B.; Fisher, F.; Ray, W.H.

    1977-01-01

    Predictable effects of the recycle of plutonium and uranium recovered from spent LWR fuels were assessed in a final environmental statement (GESMO). Five alternative dispositions of LWR-produced plutonium ranging from prompt recycle of recovered plutonium and uranium to no recovery and no recycle are compared. The assessments consider cumulative effects for the period 1975 through 2000, and are centered on a conservative low growth rate resulting in about 500 LWR's in the U.S. in 2000. A more optimistic growth projection resulting in about 800 LWR's in 2000 is also analyzed in order to assess the effects of industry size upon the impacts. Demands for fuel cycle services were calculated with an ERDA program, NUFUEL, which was modified to include penalties for 236 U and 242 Pu. Unit cost data, including a simulation of market place reaction to supply-demand functions for uranium costs, were combined with the NUFUEL demand data in an economics code, NUCOST. Environmental impacts were also based upon NUFUEL demand data and were developed using a model plant industry concept. Using the most likely unit costs with a 10% discount rate, present worth incentives for prompt recycle over no recycle of $3.2 billion for the lower growth and about $6 billion for the higher growth were indicated. Present worth costs of delays in recycle of up to 5 years were less than $1 billion. Sensitivity of the economic assessments to unit cost variations and discount rates were also evaluated. Environmental impacts other than radiological were lowest for prompt Pu recycle and highest for no recycle. Radiological impacts for the total world wide total body exposure from U.S. industry for the 26 year period were estimated to be: - No recycle-8.2 million person-rem; U only recycle-9.5 million person-rem; Pu and U recycle-8.8 million person-rem. Comparison of the decreased radiological impact of the no recycle option with its increased costs relative to prompt plutonium recycle resulted in a

  3. Analysis of Nova 1 strategy formed by barrier options and its application in hedging against a price drop in oil market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Šoltés

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates hedging analysis against an underlying price drop by using the Nova 1 strategy formed by standard vanilla and barrier options. There are used European down and knock-in put options together with barrier call options. Derived income functions from the secured positions in analytical expressions are presented. Based on the theoretical results, the hedged portfolio is applied to SPDR SandP Oil and Gas Exploration and Production ETF. The proposed hedging variants are analysed and compared with the recommendation of the best possibilities for investors.

  4. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  5. Twitter data analysis: temporal and term frequency analysis with real-time event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Garima; Joshi, Mansi; Sasikala, R.

    2017-11-01

    From the past few years, World Wide Web (www) has become a prominent and huge source for user generated content and opinionative data. Among various social media, Twitter gained popularity as it offers a fast and effective way of sharing users’ perspective towards various critical and other issues in different domain. As the data is hugely generated on cloud, it has opened doors for the researchers in the field of data science and analysis. There are various domains such as ‘Political’ domain, ‘Entertainment’ domain and ‘Business’ domain. Also there are various APIs that Twitter provides for developers 1) Search API, focus on the old tweets 2) Rest API, focuses on user details and allow to collect the user profile, friends and followers 3) Streaming API, which collects details like tweets, hashtags, geo locations. In our work we are accessing Streaming API in order to fetch real-time tweets for the dynamic happening event. For this we are focusing on ‘Entertainment’ domain especially ‘Sports’ as IPL-T20 is currently the trending on-going event. We are collecting these numerous amounts of tweets and storing them in MongoDB database where the tweets are stored in JSON document format. On this document we are performing time-series analysis and term frequency analysis using different techniques such as filtering, information extraction for text-mining that fulfils our objective of finding interesting moments for temporal data in the event and finding the ranking among the players or the teams based on popularity which helps people in understanding key influencers on the social media platform.

  6. Direct analysis in real time mass spectrometry for analysis of sexual assault evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musah, Rabi A; Cody, Robert B; Dane, A John; Vuong, Angela L; Shepard, Jason R E

    2012-05-15

    Sexual assault crimes are vastly underreported and suffer from alarmingly low prosecution and conviction rates. The key scientific method to aid in prosecution of such cases is forensic DNA analysis, where biological evidence such as semen collected using a rape test kit is used to determine a suspect's DNA profile. However, the growing awareness by criminals of the importance of DNA in the prosecution of sexual assaults has resulted in increased condom use by assailants as a means to avoid leaving behind their DNA. Thus, other types of trace evidence are important to help corroborate victims' accounts, exonerate the innocent, link suspects to the crime, or confirm penetration. Direct Analysis in Real Time Mass Spectrometry (DART-MS) was employed for the comprehensive characterization of non-DNA trace evidence associated with sexual assault. The ambient ionization method associated with DART-MS is extremely rapid and samples are processed instantaneously, without the need for extraction, sample preparation, or other means that might compromise forensic evidence for future analyses. In a single assay, we demonstrated the ability to identify lubricant formulations associated with sexual assault, such as the spermicide nonoxynol-9, compounds used in condom manufacture, and numerous other trace components as probative evidence. In addition, the method can also serve to identify compounds within trace biological residues, such as fatty acids commonly identified in latent fingerprints. Characterization of lubricant residues as probative evidence serves to establish a connection between the victim and the perpetrator, and the availability of these details may lead to higher rates of prosecution and conviction, as well as more severe penalties. The methodology described here opens the way for the adoption of a comprehensive, rapid, and sensitive analysis for use in crime labs, while providing knowledge that can inform and guide criminal justice policy and practice

  7. Methodology for object-oriented real-time systems analysis and design: Software engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffler, James D.

    1991-01-01

    Successful application of software engineering methodologies requires an integrated analysis and design life-cycle in which the various phases flow smoothly 'seamlessly' from analysis through design to implementation. Furthermore, different analysis methodologies often lead to different structuring of the system so that the transition from analysis to design may be awkward depending on the design methodology to be used. This is especially important when object-oriented programming is to be used for implementation when the original specification and perhaps high-level design is non-object oriented. Two approaches to real-time systems analysis which can lead to an object-oriented design are contrasted: (1) modeling the system using structured analysis with real-time extensions which emphasizes data and control flows followed by the abstraction of objects where the operations or methods of the objects correspond to processes in the data flow diagrams and then design in terms of these objects; and (2) modeling the system from the beginning as a set of naturally occurring concurrent entities (objects) each having its own time-behavior defined by a set of states and state-transition rules and seamlessly transforming the analysis models into high-level design models. A new concept of a 'real-time systems-analysis object' is introduced and becomes the basic building block of a series of seamlessly-connected models which progress from the object-oriented real-time systems analysis and design system analysis logical models through the physical architectural models and the high-level design stages. The methodology is appropriate to the overall specification including hardware and software modules. In software modules, the systems analysis objects are transformed into software objects.

  8. Multi-site magnetotelluric measurement system with real-time data analysis. Final technical report No. 210

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becker, J.D.; Bostick, F.X. Jr.; Smith, H.W.

    1981-09-01

    A magnetotelluric measurement system has been designed to provide a more cost effective electrical method for geothermal and mineral exploration. The theoretical requirements and sensitivities of the magnetotelluric inversion process were specifically addressed in determining system performance requirements. Significantly reduced instrument noise levels provide improved data quality, and simultaneous measurement at up to six locations provides reduced cost per site. Remotely located, battery powered, instrumentation packages return data to a central controlling site through a 2560 baud wire-line or radio link. Each remote package contains preamplifiers, data conditioning filters, and a 12-bit gain ranging A-D converter for frequencies from 0.001 Hz to 8 Hz. Data frequencies above 8 Hz are processed sequentially by a heterodyne receiver to reduce bandwidth to within the limits of the 2560 baud data link. The central data collection site provides overall control for the entire system. The system operator interacts with the system through a CRT terminal, and he receives hard copy from a matrix graphics printer. Data from the remote packages may be recorded in time sequence on a magnetic tape cartridge system, or an optional Hewlett-Packard 21MX minicomputer can be used to perform real-time frequency analysis. The results of this analysis provide feedback to the operator for improved evaluation of system performance and for selection of future measurement sites.

  9. Study on Real-Time Simulation Analysis and Inverse Analysis System for Temperature and Stress of Concrete Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the concrete dam construction, it is very necessary to strengthen the real-time monitoring and scientific management of concrete temperature control. This paper constructs the analysis and inverse analysis system of temperature stress simulation, which is based on various useful data collected in real time in the process of concrete construction. The system can produce automatically data file of temperature and stress calculation and then achieve the remote real-time simulation calculation of temperature stress by using high performance computing techniques, so the inverse analysis can be carried out based on a basis of monitoring data in the database; it fulfills the automatic feedback calculation according to the error requirement and generates the corresponding curve and chart after the automatic processing and analysis of corresponding results. The system realizes the automation and intellectualization of complex data analysis and preparation work in simulation process and complex data adjustment in the inverse analysis process, which can facilitate the real-time tracking simulation and feedback analysis of concrete temperature stress in construction process and enable you to discover problems timely, take measures timely, and adjust construction scheme and can well instruct you how to ensure project quality.

  10. Descriptive Analysis and Strategic Options to Defeat Commodity-Based Threat Financing Methodologies Related to Gold

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    auditing firms. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Counter threat finance, commodity-based money laundering , terrorist financing, social network analysis, bright...51 2. Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering ................................52 3. Caribbean Financial Action Task Force...53 4. Eurasian Group on Combating Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism

  11. Spatial analysis of fuel treatment options for chaparral on the Angeles national forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Jones; J. Chew; R. Silverstein; C. Stalling; J. Sullivan; J. Troutwine; D. Weise; D. Garwood

    2008-01-01

    Spatial fuel treatment schedules were developed for the chaparral vegetation type on the Angeles National Forest using the Multi-resource Analysis and Geographic Information System (MAGIS). Schedules varied by the priority given to various wildland urban interface areas and the general forest, as well as by the number of acres treated per decade. The effectiveness of...

  12. Do healthier foods and diet patterns cost more than less healthy options? A systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mayuree; Afshin, Ashkan; Singh, Gitanjali; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2013-01-01

    Objective To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prices of healthier versus less healthy foods/diet patterns while accounting for key sources of heterogeneity. Data sources MEDLINE (2000–2011), supplemented with expert consultations and hand reviews of reference lists and related citations. Design Studies reviewed independently and in duplicate were included if reporting mean retail price of foods or diet patterns stratified by healthfulness. We extracted, in duplicate, mean prices and their uncertainties of healthier and less healthy foods/diet patterns and rated the intensity of health differences for each comparison (range 1–10). Prices were adjusted for inflation and the World Bank purchasing power parity, and standardised to the international dollar (defined as US$1) in 2011. Using random effects models, we quantified price differences of healthier versus less healthy options for specific food types, diet patterns and units of price (serving, day and calorie). Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics. Results 27 studies from 10 countries met the inclusion criteria. Among food groups, meats/protein had largest price differences: healthier options cost $0.29/serving (95% CI $0.19 to $0.40) and $0.47/200 kcal ($0.42 to $0.53) more than less healthy options. Price differences per serving for healthier versus less healthy foods were smaller among grains ($0.03), dairy (−$0.004), snacks/sweets ($0.12) and fats/oils ($0.02; p<0.05 each) and not significant for soda/juice ($0.11, p=0.64). Comparing extremes (top vs bottom quantile) of food-based diet patterns, healthier diets cost $1.48/day ($1.01 to $1.95) and $1.54/2000 kcal ($1.15 to $1.94) more. Comparing nutrient-based patterns, price per day was not significantly different (top vs bottom quantile: $0.04; p=0.916), whereas price per 2000 kcal was $1.56 ($0.61 to $2.51) more. Adjustment for intensity of differences in healthfulness yielded similar results. Conclusions

  13. Protein Analysis Using Real-Time PCR Instrumentation: Incorporation in an Integrated, Inquiry-Based Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southard, Jonathan N.

    2014-01-01

    Instrumentation for real-time PCR is used primarily for amplification and quantitation of nucleic acids. The capability to measure fluorescence while controlling temperature in multiple samples can also be applied to the analysis of proteins. Conformational stability and changes in stability due to ligand binding are easily assessed. Protein…

  14. Stacker’s Crane Position Fixing Based on Real Time Image Processing and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kmeid Saad

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study illustrates the usage of stacker cranes and image processing in automated warehouse systems. The aim is to use real time image processing and analysis for a stacker’s crane position fixing in order to use it as a pick-up and delivery system (P/D, to be controlled by a programmable logic controller unit (PLC.

  15. Assumption-free analysis of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramakers, Christian; Ruijter, Jan M.; Deprez, Ronald H. Lekanne; Moorman, Antoon F. M.

    2003-01-01

    Quantification of mRNAs using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) by monitoring the product formation with the fluorescent dye SYBR Green I is being extensively used in neurosciences, developmental biology, and medical diagnostics. Most PCR data analysis procedures assume that the PCR

  16. Improved SIRAP analysis for synchronization in hierarchical scheduled real-time systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Behnam, M.; Bril, R.J.; Nolte, T.

    2009-01-01

    We present our ongoing work on synchronization in hierarchical scheduled real-time systems, where tasks are scheduled using fixed-priority pre-emptive scheduling. In this paper, we show that the original local schedulability analysis of the synchronization protocol SIRAP [4] is very pessimistic when

  17. 2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-23

    and the Operational Research Commons This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in...and build a representation of the model using Microsoft Excel 2016, Visual Basics for Applications ( VBA ), and Excel’s Data Analysis Toolkit. The...stream of future income. However, these DOD TSP contributions are not readily accessible to the member until they reach age 59.5 due to IRS

  18. Uruguay Energy Supply Options Study: a Detailed Multi-Sector Integrated Energy Supply and Demand Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conzelmann, G.; Veselka, T.

    1997-01-01

    Uruguay is in the middle of making critical decisions affecting the design of its future energy supply system.Momentum for change is expected to come from several directions including recent and foreseeable upgrades and modifications to energy conversion facilities, the importation of natural gas from Argentina, the possibility for a stronger interconnection of regional electricity systems, the country s membership in MERCOSUR, and the potential for energy sector reforms by the Government of Uruguay.The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of several fuel diversification strategies on Uruguay s energy supply system.The analysis pays special attention to fuel substitution trends due to potential imports of natural gas via a gas pipeline from Argentina and increasing electricity ties with neighboring countries.The Government of Uruguay contracted Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to study several energy development scenario ns with the support of several Uruguayan Institutions.Specifically, ANL was asked to conduct a detailed energy supply and demand analysis, develop energy demand projections based on an analysis of past energy demand patterns with support from local institutions, evaluate the effects of potential natural gas imports and electricity exchanges, and determine the market penetration of natural gas under various scenarios

  19. Modification of the Ladder Rung Walking Task—New Options for Analysis of Skilled Movements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwa Antonow-Schlorke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Method sensitivity is critical for evaluation of poststroke motor function. Skilled walking was assessed in horizontal, upward, and downward rung ladder walking to compare the demands of the tasks and test sensitivity. The complete step sequence of a walk was subjected to analysis aimed at demonstrating the walking pattern, step sequence, step cycle, limb coordination, and limb interaction to complement the foot fault scoring system. Rats (males, n=10 underwent unilateral photothrombotic lesion of the motor cortex of the forelimb and hind limb areas. Locomotion was video recorded before the insult and at postischemic days 7 and 28. Analysis of walking was performed frame-by-frame. Walking along the rung ladder revealed different results that were dependent on ladder inclination. Horizontal walking was found to discriminate lesion-related motor deficits in forelimb, whereas downward walking demonstrates hind limb use most sensitively. A more frequent use of the impaired forelimb that possibly supported poststroke motor learning in rats was shown. The present study provides a novel system for a detailed analysis of the complete walking sequence and will help to provide a better understanding of how rats deal with motor impairments.

  20. Governing Geoengineering Research: A Political and Technical Vulnerability Analysis of Potential Near-Term Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    political strategy (McCann, Marcot, and Ellis, 2006; Jackman , 2004; Marcot et al., 2001; Cain, 2001). However, using such networks does impose some...2009, pp. 635–638. Jackman , Simon, “Bayesian Analysis for Political Research,” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 7, June 2004, pp. 483–505...Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes , Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin