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Sample records for real options analysis

  1. Real Options Analysis of Electricity Investments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heggedal, Ane Marte

    2012-07-01

    This thesis utilizes real options analysis for evaluating investment opportunities in the electricity sector. It also formally tests how investors in hydropower plants have included uncertainty when considering their investment opportunities. The real options method applies financial options theory to quantify the value of management flexibility and is chosen due to three important characteristics of investments in the electricity sector. First; the investment is completely or partially irreversible, second; the investor can choose when to invest in the facility, and third; there is uncertainty in several factors affecting the cash flows of the investments. Factors of uncertainty include the development of electricity prices, policies, technological advances, and macroeconomics measures.Four papers are included in this thesis. Paper 1, Upgrading hydropower plants with storage: Timing and capacity choice, presents a valuation framework for deciding when to upgrade an existing hydropower plant and which capacity to choose. The second paper, Transmission capacity between Norway and Germany: A real options analysis, sheds light on when two electricity markets, in this case Norway and Germany, should be connected through a sub sea cable. The investor can choose when to invest and the capacity of the cable, and may also choose to invest sequentially. Paper 3, Optimal timing and capacity choice for pumped hydropower storage, investigates when investment in a pumped hydropower plant with storage should be undertaken and what the capacity of the facility should be. Whereas the three first papers investigate investment opportunities, Paper 4, Uncertain climate policy decisions and investment timing: Evidence from small hydropower plants, studies when investors in small hydropower plants chose to invest. The analyses disclose whether the net present value approach or the real options method best describe the investment decisions made by the investors. Viewing investment

  2. Real option analysis in a replicating portfolio perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Heeswijk, W.J.A.; Joosten, Reinoud A.M.G.; Huisman, Kuno; Bos, Christian

    2013-01-01

    In the last decades, a vast body of literature has arisen on real option analysis (ROA). The use of di¤erent approaches and the often implicit adoption of major assumptions may cause confusion on what ROA precisely entails, or in which situations it may be applied. We assess the �eld of real option

  3. Electricity Real Options Valuation

    OpenAIRE

    Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, Ewa

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a real option approach for the valuation of real assets is presented. Two continuous time models used for valuation are described: geometric Brownian motion model and interest rate model. The valuation for electricity spread option under Vasicek interest model is placed and the formulas for parameter estimators are calculated. The theoretical part is confronted with real data from electricity market.

  4. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS – ASSESSMENT METHOD OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN GREEN ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MAFTEI DANIEL

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the importance of real options as a evaluation method of investment in green energy. Article consider several theoretical and practical approaches, the analysis based on real options by many authors who have theorized and used this method. Each approach provides a operationalisation through a steps series of specific evaluation. This paper highlights the different views: academics, financiers, managers and facilitates the access to an accurate evaluation decisions of projects.

  5. Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

    2015-09-15

    Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Making real options really work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Putten, Alexander B; MacMillan, Ian C

    2004-12-01

    As a way to value growth opportunities, real options have had a difficult time catching on with managers. Many CFOs believe the method ensures the overvaluation of risky projects. This concern is legitimate, but abandoning real options as a valuation model isn't the solution. Companies that rely solely on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis underestimate the value of their projects and may fail to invest enough in uncertain but highly promising opportunities. CFOs need not--and should not--choose one approach over the other. Far from being a replacement for DCF analysis, real options are an essential complement, and a project's total value should encompass both. DCF captures a base estimate of value; real options take into account the potential for big gains. This is not to say that there aren't problems with real options. As currently applied, they focus almost exclusively on the risks associated with revenues, ignoring the risks associated with a project's costs. It's also true that option valuations almost always ignore assets that an initial investment in a subsequently abandoned project will often leave the company. In this article, the authors present a simple formula for combining DCF and option valuations that addresses these two problems. Using an integrated approach, managers will, in the long run, select better projects than their more timid competitors while keeping risk under control. Thus, they will outperform their rivals in both the product and the capital markets.

  7. Incorporating Asymmetric Dependency Patterns in the Evaluation of IS/IT projects Using Real Option Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, John C.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of my dissertation is to create a general approach to evaluating IS/IT projects using Real Option Analysis (ROA). This is an important problem because an IT Project Portfolio (ITPP) can represent hundreds of projects, millions of dollars of investment and hundreds of thousands of employee hours. Therefore, any advance in the…

  8. Evaluation of Cloud Computing Hidden Benefits by Using Real Options Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Náplava

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing technologies have brought new attributes to the IT world. One of them is a flexibility of IT resources. It enables effectively both to downsize and upsize the capacity of IT resources in real time. Requirements for IT size change defines business strategy and actual market state. IT costs are not stable but dynamic in this case. Standard investment valuation methods (both static and dynamic are not able to include the flexibility attribute to the evaluation of IT projects. This article describes the application of the Real Options Analysis method for the valuation of the cloud computing flexibility. The method compares costs of the on-premise and cloud computing solutions by combining put and call option valuation. Cloud computing providers can use the method as an advanced tool that explains hidden benefits of cloud computing. Unexperienced cloud computing customers can simulate the market behavior and better plan necessary IT investments.

  9. Optimizing the Level of Renewable Electric R&D Expenditures Using Real Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, G.; Owens, B.

    2003-02-01

    One of the primary objectives of the United States' federal non-hydro renewable electric R&D program is to promote the development of technologies that have the potential to provide consumers with stable and secure energy supplies. In order to quantify the benefits provided by continued federal renewable electric R&D, this paper uses ''real option'' pricing techniques to estimate the value of renewable electric technologies in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices. Within the real options analysis framework, the current value of expected future supply from renewable electric technologies, net of federal R&D expenditures, is estimated to be $30.6 billion. Of this value, 86% can be attributed to past federal R&D efforts, and 14% can be attributed to future federal R&D efforts, assuming continued federal R&D funding at $300 million/year. In addition, real options analysis shows that the value of renewable electric technologies increases as current and future R&D funding levels increase. This indicates that the current level of federal renewable electric R&D funding is sub-optimal low.

  10. Construction strategies and lifetime uncertainties for nuclear projects: A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jain, Shashi, E-mail: s.jain@cwi.nl [TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands); Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Roelofs, Ferry, E-mail: roelofs@nrg.eu [Nuclear Research Group, Petten (Netherlands); Oosterlee, Cornelis W., E-mail: c.w.oosterlee@cwi.nl [CWI – Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica, Amsterdam (Netherlands); TU Delft, Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft (Netherlands)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Real options can be used to value flexibility of modular reactors. • Value of NPPs increases with implementation of long term cost reductions. • Levels of uncertainties affect the choice between projects. -- Abstract: Small and medium sized reactors, SMRs (according to IAEA, ‘small’ are reactors with power less than 300 MWe, and ‘medium’ with power less than 700 MWe) are considered as an attractive option for investment in nuclear power plants. SMRs may benefit from flexibility of investment, reduced upfront expenditure, and easy integration with small sized grids. Large reactors on the other hand have been an attractive option due to economy of scale. In this paper we focus on the advantages of flexibility due to modular construction of SMRs. Using real option analysis (ROA) we help a utility determine the value of sequential modular SMRs. Numerical results under different considerations, like possibility of rare events, learning, uncertain lifetimes are reported for a single large unit and modular SMRs.

  11. Placing the power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers - taking the next step.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Rohan; Howden, Mark; Hayman, Peter

    2013-07-30

    This paper explores heuristic methods with potential to place the analytical power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers. The complexity of real options analysis has led to patchy or ephemeral adoption even by corporate managers familiar with the financial-market origins of valuation methods. Intuitively accessible methods for estimating the value of real options have begun to evolve, but their evaluation has mostly been limited to researcher-driven applications. In this paper we work closely with Bush Heritage Australia to evaluate the potential of real options analysis to support the intuitive judgement of conservation estate managers in covenanting land with uncertain future conservation value due to climate change. The results show that modified decision trees have potential to estimate the option value of covenanting individual properties while time and ongoing research resolves their future conservation value. Complementing this, Luehrman's option space has potential to assist managers with limited budgets to increase the portfolio value of multiple properties with different conservation attributes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Application of Real Options Analysis in the Valuation of Investment in Biodiesel Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    as increases US dependence on imported petroleum. Fortunately, huge quantities of waste vegetable oil (WVO) are disposed of at Military Canteens ...M. and N. Kulatilaka, 1999, Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press. 2

  13. SMR and economics competitiveness in small grids. A real option analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, Giorgio [University of Lincoln - School of Engineering, Lincoln (United Kingdom). Faculty of Science; Mancino, Mauro; Lotti, Giovanni [Politecnico di Milano (Italy). Dept. of Management Economics and Industrial Engineering

    2014-03-15

    The optimal investment in power plants depends on many uncertain parameters (price of electricity, construction costs, cost of emissions, fuel cost..). Traditional approaches based on the Discounted Cash Flows methodologies, like the Net Present Value (NPV), do not properly take into account these uncertainties since they depend on the implicit assumption that all the decisions regarding the investment are evaluated in a specific moment (the time now) and cannot be postponed, waiting to acquire more information. An evolution of these methods is the Real Options Analysis (ROA) that considers a further value into the evaluation: the value of flexibility to choose when to invest. In this paper the ROA will be used to test a hypothesis made in literature, that small-medium sized plants (300-400 MWe) can be a suitable choice for small grids (or markets), thanks to their flexibility in the deployment. The assessment of this hypothesis is based on a ROA model that compares the investment in a Large Reactor (LR) vs. a group of Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Montecarlo simulations are used to approximate the probability distributions of the profitability indicators, both with a static approach, implying that investments are made immediately, and with a dynamic approach, letting the model decide when to invest (optimizing the profitability distribution). The result show as SMR, in small grid, can yield similar profitability in lower risky conditions. (orig.)

  14. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

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    Andres R. Jácome

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H and exit (L prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  15. A Real Option Analysis applied to the production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee in Ecuador

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jácome, A.R.; Garrido, A.

    2017-09-01

    The coffee market is distinguished for being volatile and uncertain in terms of domestic and international prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee are produced in 23 provinces of Ecuador. A decade-long decline of coffee production prompted the Ecuadorian government to launch a public program for replanting coffee trees towards the end of 2011. A grower’s decision to enter, remain in or exit the coffee sector is based on fluctuating profits from each year’s harvest sale. We analyzed the hypothesis whereby the coffee grower’s decision to leave the sector is explained by volatile and uncertain prices. This paper aimed to evaluate the coffee sector with an application of Real Option Analysis for the period 2002-2012. We also defined entry (H) and exit (L) prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee for the analyzed period. Our findings revealed high H and L prices encourage growers to leave the sector for the most part of the analyzed period. High H and L prices resulted from high variable cost due to increasing wages for farm workers. The Ecuadorian government is developing a policy to help growers make production more efficient, encouraging them to remain in the sector in the long run.

  16. Combination of real options and game-theoretic approach in investment analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arasteh, Abdollah

    2016-02-01

    Investments in technology create a large amount of capital investments by major companies. Assessing such investment projects is identified as critical to the efficient assignment of resources. Viewing investment projects as real options, this paper expands a method for assessing technology investment decisions in the linkage existence of uncertainty and competition. It combines the game-theoretic models of strategic market interactions with a real options approach. Several key characteristics underlie the model. First, our study shows how investment strategies rely on competitive interactions. Under the force of competition, firms hurry to exercise their options early. The resulting "hurry equilibrium" destroys the option value of waiting and involves violent investment behavior. Second, we get best investment policies and critical investment entrances. This suggests that integrating will be unavoidable in some information product markets. The model creates some new intuitions into the forces that shape market behavior as noticed in the information technology industry. It can be used to specify best investment policies for technology innovations and adoptions, multistage R&D, and investment projects in information technology.

  17. A real-world way to manage real options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Tom; Tufano, Peter

    2004-03-01

    Each corporate growth project is an option, in the sense that managers face choices--push ahead or pull back--along the way. Yet many companies hesitate to apply options theory to initiatives such as R&D and geographic expansion, partly because these "real" options are highly complex. In this article, the authors make the case that the complexity of real options can be eased through the use of a binomial valuation model. Many of the problems with real-options analysis stem from the use of the Black-Scholes-Merton model, which isn't suited to real options. Binomial models, by contrast, are simpler mathematically, and you can tinker with a binomial model until it closely reflects the project you wish to value. Suppose your company is considering investing in a new plant. To use the binomial model, you must create an "event tree" to figure out the full range of possible values for the plant during the project's lifetime--next year, at the end of the design phase, upon completion. Then you work backward from the value at completion, factoring in the various investments, to determine the value of the project today. These calculations provide you with numbers for all the possible future values of the option at the various points where a decision needs to be made on whether to continue with the project. The authors also address another criticism of real options: that gaps often arise between theoretical and realized values of options of all types. Such gaps may be largely the result of managers exercising options at the wrong time. To improve the way it manages its real options, a company can look out for the decision trigger points that correspond to the nodes on a binomial decision tree. The trigger points should not only tell managers when they need to decide on exercise but also specify rules governing the exercise decisions.

  18. Investment opportunities as real options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Rovčanin

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Opportunity (optional approach to capital investment appraisal represents, completely new theoretical and methodological framework for investment analysis. Compared to traditional, discount cash flow (DCF model of analysis, the optional approach provides opportunity for valuation and managing flexibility, i.e. possibility of approaching (amending the previous decisions in compliance with market changes. Risk and uncertainty are inevitably following the capital investment. Therefore, the importance of optional approach to investments is also that it provides possible better “treatment” of risks in the investment analysis, and also more rational allocation of resources, accordingly. This approach should be of more interest to the Countries in transition, considering the limited financial sources as well as risk and uncertainty are emphasized.

  19. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

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    Casper Agaton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

  20. THE REAL OPTIONS OF CAPITAL BUDGET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martins

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The traditional techniques of capital budget, as the deducted cash flow and the net value present, do not incorporate existing flexibilities in an investment project, they tend to distort the value of certain investments, mainly those that are considered in scenes of uncertainty and risk. Therefore, this study intends to demonstrate that the Real Options Theory (TOR is a useful methodology to evaluate and to indicate the best option for project of expansion investment. To reach the considered objective the procedure method was used a case study, having as unit of case the Resort Praia Hotel do Litoral Norte of Salvador. This study was developed of the following form: first it identified the traditional net value present and later it was incorporated the volatileness of each analyzed uncertainty. Second, as the real options are analogous to the financial options, it was necessary to identify elements that composed the terminologies of the financial options with intention to get the value of the real option. For this model of options pricing of Black & Scholes jointly with a computational simulator was used (SLS to get the expanded net value present. As a result of this study it was possible to evidence that using the traditional tool of capital budget Net Value Present (VPL is negative, therefore the project of expansion of the Hotel would be rejected. While for the application of methodology TOR the project presents positive Expanded Present Value which would represent an excellent chance of investment. Key-word: Capital budget, Real options, Analysis of investments.

  1. INVESTMENT IN ANTIVIRAL DRUGS : A REAL OPTIONS APPROACH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, Arthur E.; Lugner, Anna K.; Feenstra, Talitha L.

    2010-01-01

    Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations

  2. Using expanded real options analysis to evaluate capacity expansion decisions under uncertainty in the construction material industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Momani, Amer Mohammad

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Capacity expansion generally requires large capital expenditure on illiquid assets. Therefore, decisions to enlarge capacity must support the organisation’s strategic objectives and provide valuable input for the budgeting process. This paper applies an expanded form of Real Options Analysis (ROA to generate and evaluate capacity expansion strategies under uncertainty in the construction material industry. ROA is applied to different expansion strategies associated with different demand scenarios. Evaluating a wider variety of strategies can reduce risk and sponsor decisions that maximise the firm’s value. The case study shows that the execution of a lead expansion strategy with 10-year intervals under a 50 per cent demand satisfaction scenario produces superior results.

  3. Real Options Valuation Based on Certainty Equivalents

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    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This purpose of this research is to identify appropriate rates to discount the flows from real options in situations in which the risk-free rate does not apply, in particular, in incomplete markets.  A methodology is proposed for valuing real options based on certainty equivalence, which requires as a principal condition the consideration of preferences represented with utility functions.  A constant relative risk aversion (CRRA utility function is used to represent these preferences. The results indicate that this methodology adequately reflects how the value of a real option changes in accordance with an investor´s preferences.

  4. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997

    OpenAIRE

    José Manuel Campa; P.H. Kevin Chang; James F. Refalo

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange...

  5. Investment in antiviral drugs: a real options approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attema, Arthur E; Lugnér, Anna K; Feenstra, Talitha L

    2010-10-01

    Real options analysis is a promising approach to model investment under uncertainty. We employ this approach to value stockpiling of antiviral drugs as a precautionary measure against a possible influenza pandemic. Modifications of the real options approach to include risk attitude and deviations from expected utility are presented. We show that risk aversion counteracts the tendency to delay investment for this case of precautionary investment, which is in contrast to earlier applications of risk aversion to real options analysis. Moreover, we provide a numerical example using real world data and discuss the implications of real options analysis for health policy. Suggestions for further extensions of the model and a comparison with the expected value of information analysis are put forward.

  6. Feasibility analysis of the development of an oil field: a real options approach in a production sharing agreement

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    Marcelo Nunes Fonseca

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this research is to analyze the feasibility of developing a real oil field in Africa under a production sharing agreement, through the application of the real options theory. Design/methodology/approach – The research was conducted according to the principles of modeling and simulation, based on a structure that consists of three phases, in order to facilitate project feasibility analysis. Findings – Initially, according to the traditional method, we suggest that the decision-maker does not invest in the development of the field. However, by incorporating uncertainty into the decision-making process, other results were obtained. Although reduced, we attested that there is a likelihood of feasibility. Next, by using the binomial model to represent the process of oil barrel price diffusion, the asset value is calculated considering the flexibility of delaying the development of the field. Originality/value – The results show that, if a manager has the right to invest in the future and wait for better oil prices, postponing the development of an oil field adds value to his assets. The proposed method is a contribution that offers subsidies to improve decisionmaking processes to evaluate investments.

  7. Recent Advances in Real Options Signaling Games

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    George Rigopoulos

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial economics have benefited from game theory advances and its application to various domains where competition is present. Following relevant research this paper presents a literature review of recent works on the intersection of real options and game theory, especially on signaling games. A preliminary background is presented initially and next a review of the works is presented. The paper compiles existing works to a useful reference for researchers in the field. Keywords: Signaling games; Capital budgeting, Real options, Game theory, Discrete time games

  8. The Fundamental Uncertainty of Business: Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, James S.

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the manner in which uncertainty is currently evaluated in business, with an emphasis on economic measures. In recent years, the accepted approach for the valuation of capital investment decisions has become one based on the theory of real options. From the standpoint of this workshop, the interesting aspect of real options is its focus on the flexibility of management to respond to changes in the environment as a feature of an alternative that has unique value, known as "option value." While this may not be surprising to most participants in this workshop, it does represent a radical change in traditional thinking about risk in business, where efforts have primarily been focused on the elimination of risk when possible.

  9. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    McShane, Edward James

    2013-01-01

    This text surveys practical elements of real function theory, general topology, and functional analysis. Discusses the maximality principle, the notion of convergence, the Lebesgue-Stieltjes integral, function spaces and harmonic analysis. Includes exercises. 1959 edition.

  10. Investing in Marine Scrubber under Uncertainty with Real Option Thinking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Liping; Hansen, Carsten Ørts

    works that examine the economic feasibility of scrubber retrofitting through the net present value rule, this paper applies the Real Option Analysis to find the optimal investment strategies. The proposed decision-making framework addresses the uncertainty and the value of deferral option embedded...... in the scrubber investment. The multiple sources of investment uncertainties are explicitly analyzed and integrated in the modeling by using Rainbow option. The results demonstrate that the value of the scrubber investment has significantly increased for several cases by considering the deferral option...

  11. Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G.J. Jennen (Maarten); Y. Fu (Yuming)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in

  12. THE COMPARISON OF FINANCIAL AND REAL OPTIONS AND THE USE OF REAL OPTIONS IN AN INVESTMENT PROJECT

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    OKTAY TAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available An option gives its owner the right but not the obligation to buy (Call option or to sell (Put option an underlying security in a predetermined period of time at a predetermined price. The use of options in real asset investments gave birth to real options. Real options and financial options have similar properties. The most important difference is that generally real options are not traded in financial markets. In this study first of all, real options and financial options are defined and compared. Also, information about option pricing methods is given. As a case study, real options approach is applied to a real investment project and value of the option is calculated. Consequently, it has been found out that a project, which is not acceptable according to traditional project valuation approaches, becomes acceptable by using real options approach. In brief, in this study differences between financial options and real options are explained and with an actual case study, the importance of real options in project valuation is shown.

  13. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Loeb, Peter A

    2016-01-01

    This textbook is designed for a year-long course in real analysis taken by beginning graduate and advanced undergraduate students in mathematics and other areas such as statistics, engineering, and economics. Written by one of the leading scholars in the field, it elegantly explores the core concepts in real analysis and introduces new, accessible methods for both students and instructors. The first half of the book develops both Lebesgue measure and, with essentially no additional work for the student, general Borel measures for the real line. Notation indicates when a result holds only for Lebesgue measure. Differentiation and absolute continuity are presented using a local maximal function, resulting in an exposition that is both simpler and more general than the traditional approach. The second half deals with general measures and functional analysis, including Hilbert spaces, Fourier series, and the Riesz representation theorem for positive linear functionals on continuous functions with compact support....

  14. Investment analysis in hydraulic energy generation by using the real options theory; Analise de investimentos em geracao hidraulica utilizando a teoria de opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noronha, J.C. Caminha; Lima, J.W. Marangon [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil)]. E-mails: juliaccn@unifei.edu.br; marangon@unifei.edu.br; Ferreira, T.G. Leite [Associacao Brasileira dos Investidores em Autoproducao de Energia Eletrica (ABIAPE), Brasilia, DF (Brazil)]. E-mail: tiago@abiape.com.br

    2006-07-01

    This paper presents a methodology of investment analysis in power plants using the Real Option Theory. Particularly, the investment opportunity of a hydro plant is valued based on the energy that will be traded at the new energy auction using the Brazilian Development Bank - BNDES financing program for the Generation of electric energy (new energy). Since this kind of project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. The proposed methodology will be described in parallel with an example of a real hydro-plant in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the decision to invest in each step of the project and an build phase abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights after the auction. (author)

  15. Real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    DiBenedetto, Emmanuele

    2016-01-01

    The second edition of this classic textbook presents a rigorous and self-contained introduction to real analysis with the goal of providing a solid foundation for future coursework and research in applied mathematics. Written in a clear and concise style, it covers all of the necessary subjects as well as those often absent from standard introductory texts. Each chapter features a “Problems and Complements” section that includes additional material that briefly expands on certain topics within the chapter and numerous exercises for practicing the key concepts. The first eight chapters explore all of the basic topics for training in real analysis, beginning with a review of countable sets before moving on to detailed discussions of measure theory, Lebesgue integration, Banach spaces, functional analysis, and weakly differentiable functions. More topical applications are discussed in the remaining chapters, such as maximal functions, functions of bounded mean oscillation, rearrangements, potential theory, a...

  16. Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

    2005-08-01

    Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market

  17. A Real-Options Approach for NASA Strategic Technology Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, R.; Ebbeler, D.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the use of real options valuation in the context of prioritizing advanced technologies for NASA funding. Further, we offer a set of computational procedures that quantifies the option value of each technology.

  18. The Pricing of Embedded Options in Real Estate Lease Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gerald Buetow, Jr.; Joseph Albert

    1998-01-01

    Leases and rental agreements often have options attached or embedded in them. These options sometimes depend on a number of economic variables such as the consumer price index (CPI), a real estate index and/or the value of real estate underlying the agreement. The evaluation of these options often involves the solution or approximation to a partial differential equation (PDE). This study analyzes the appropriate PDEs which model the situation where the lessee is granted an option to either pu...

  19. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Real Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Havlíček

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The first part of this paper describes the nuclear fuel cycle. It is divided into three parts. The first part, called Front-End, covers all activities connected with fuel procurement and fabrication. The middle part of the cycle includes fuel reload design activities and the operation of the fuel in the reactor. Back-End comprises all activities ensuring safe separation of spent fuel and radioactive waste from the environment. The individual stages of the fuel cycle are strongly interrelated. Overall economic optimization is very difficult. Generally, NPV is used for an economic evaluation in the nuclear fuel cycle. However the high volatility of uranium prices in the Front-End, and the large uncertainty of both economic and technical parameters in the Back-End, make the use of NPV difficult. The real option method is able to evaluate the value added by flexibility of decision making by a company under conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of applying this method to the nuclear fuel cycle evaluation is studied. 

  20. Using Real Options for the Evaluation of Venture Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Baranov

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the peculiarities of the application of the real options method for assessing the economic efficiency of venture investments in innovative projects from the venture fund’s position. The results of the practical use of the author’s approach for the evaluation of venture investments with real options are analyzed. The paper shows the applicability of the real options concept to the valuation of the effectiveness of venture capital investments. The use of the real options method raises the accuracy of the estimation and enhances the instruments of the venture fund in evaluating the economic efficiency of innovative projects.

  1. Towards phronetic knowledge for strategic planning in corporate real estate management: A real options approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The objective of this paper is to provide insights about the potential of real option thinking for corporate real estate management (CREM) from the owner-user perspective. A promising approach to classifying and evaluating flexibility in real estate is the real options approach. Most

  2. The Real Options Attached to an Investment Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai-Cristian DINICĂ

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The real options capture the importance of the managerial team’s role in creating value through investment projects. The investments in real assets have a set of options that managers can exercise during the period of the project to increase the value of the assets or to limit the eventual losses. This options have their own value.The traditional methods for investment project evaluatioan, based on discounted cash flows, have some major disadvantages: they assume the irreversibility of a decision, do not take into account the interactions between decisions in several periods and treat the investment as pasive. The evaluation using real options undertake this disadvantage. The paper shows the main types of real options, together with their elements and captures the impact of these options on the value of the investment. The main two models used to evaluate real options, the binomial model and Black-Scholes model, are explained and used to compute the value of real options attached to an investment project.

  3. The Completion of Real-Asset Markets by Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos E. Kountzakis

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We combine the theory of finite-dimensional lattice subspaces and the theory of regular values for maps between smooth manifolds in order to study the completion of real asset markets by options. The strike asset of the options is supposed to be a nominal asset. The main result of the paper is like in the case of the completion of a nominal asset market by options that if the strike asset of the options is the riskless asset, then the completion of a real asset market is generically equal to ℝ.

  4. Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Courtney M; Connor, Jeffery D; Raja Segaran, Ramesh; Meyer, Wayne S; Bryan, Brett A; Ostendorf, Bertram

    2017-05-01

    The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted diversification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically diverse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield

  5. Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

    2017-02-01

    This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Implications of Real Options on ERP-Enabled Adoption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwankpa, Joseph K.

    2012-01-01

    Current research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems and real options focuses on valuation and justification issues that manager's face prior to project approval with existing literature attempting to demonstrate that ERP systems as technology positioning investments have option-like characteristics thus making such ERP systems…

  7. Real options in the energy markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Y.

    2007-01-01

    Electricity prices are notoriously hard to model due to their exotic behaviors. The extraordinarily high volatilities, strong mean reversion, pronounced cyclical price patterns, and occasional occurrence of price spikes may demand very complicated models. From the empirical analysis with the Dutch

  8. Real options theory: financial-economic assessment of projects in the ceramics industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Léony Luis Lopes Negrão

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed to evaluate economically the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism in the substitution of non-renewable biomass to renewable biomass in the production process of a red ceramics enterprise. The evaluation intended to show the value of management flexibility, according to adaptations made in the methodology proposed by Copeland & Antikarov (2001, adding to the traditional discounted cash flow the evaluation the Real Options. This procedure follows a routine of essential steps for the analysis of variables that comprises the model and enabled the ordination of the results based both on the Real Options and the present values, including management flexibility evaluation.  It could be concluded that Real Options Theory, and the Option to Delay or Postponement contributed with information that might assist and improve projects investment decisions, since several real-world inherent uncertainties are considered.

  9. A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the conditionality of investment decisions in R&D has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and implies that traditional diversification strategies should be reevaluated when a portfolio is constructed. Real option theory argues that research projects have

  10. Multinationality as real option facilitator – Illusion or reality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Park, Jung Chul

    2016-01-01

    with multinationality. Our results indicate that multinationality does indeed act as a real option facilitator. Furthermore, we show that, consistent with the notion that there are limits to the operating flexibility associated with multinationality this benefit only accrues fully if the firm is not financially...

  11. Temporary Employment Contracts in Academia: A Real Option View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Malcolm

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the strategic use of temporary employment contracts in dealing with supply uncertainty in the form of employee ability that is slow to reveal itself, for example in academia where there exist significant time lags in demonstration of research ability. A temporary contract is modeled as a real option, specifically as a…

  12. Applications of Real Options in the Real Estate Market Focusing the City of Rio de Janeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Yung Medeiros

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available An investment opportunity in the real state market can be compared with an option and, because of this analogy, we can make use of the real options theory to determinate not only the best timing to begin a new property development, but also to determine the optimal density to develop in a specific property. To investigate these two main decisions, we are going to base our research on the model developed by Williams (1991 and extend it in a way to include taxes and a discount in the net cash inflow caused by the times spent in the construction process. An empirical analysis of the of the residential real estate market in the city of Rio de Janeiro is going to be developed in a way to verify the compatibility of the theoretical model developed here according to the reality of this market. We found that the extensions proposed to the basic model of Williams (1991 had significant effects in the theoretical model. We could also confirm empirically that the theoretical results are compatible to the reality of this market.

  13. Feasibility analysis in the expansion proposal of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde: application of real options, binomial model; Analisis de viabilidad en la propuesta de expansion de la central nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde: aplicacion de opciones reales, modelo binomial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez I, S.; Ortiz C, E.; Chavez M, C., E-mail: lunitza@gmail.com [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Circuito Interior, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    At the present time, is an unquestionable fact that the nuclear electrical energy is a topic of vital importance, no more because eliminates the dependence of the hydrocarbons and is friendly with the environment, but because is also a sure and reliable energy source, and represents a viable alternative before the claims in the growing demand of electricity in Mexico. Before this panorama, was intended several scenarios to elevate the capacity of electric generation of nuclear origin with a variable participation. One of the contemplated scenarios is represented by the expansion project of the nuclear power plant Laguna Verde through the addition of a third reactor that serves as detonator of an integral program that proposes the installation of more nuclear reactors in the country. Before this possible scenario, the Federal Commission of Electricity like responsible organism of supplying energy to the population should have tools that offer it the flexibility to be adapted to the possible changes that will be presented along the project and also gives a value to the risk to future. The methodology denominated Real Options, Binomial model was proposed as an evaluation tool that allows to quantify the value of the expansion proposal, demonstrating the feasibility of the project through a periodic visualization of their evolution, all with the objective of supplying a financial analysis that serves as base and justification before the evident apogee of the nuclear energy that will be presented in future years. (Author)

  14. Pricing real estate index options under stochastic interest rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; Dai, Jun

    2017-08-01

    Real estate derivatives as new financial instruments are not merely risk management tools but also provide a novel way to gain exposure to real estate assets without buying or selling the physical assets. Although real estate derivatives market has exhibited a rapid development in recent years, the valuation challenge of real estate derivatives remains a great obstacle for further development in this market. In this paper, we derive a partial differential equation contingent on a real estate index in a stochastic interest rate environment and propose a modified finite difference method that adopts the non-uniform grids to solve this problem. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of the method and indicate that constant interest rate models lead to the mispricing of options and the effects of stochastic interest rates on option prices depend on whether the term structure of interest rates is rising or falling. Finally, we have investigated and compared the different effects of stochastic interest rates on European and American option prices.

  15. Real options methodology in public-private partnership projects valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakić Biljana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available PPP offers numerous benefits to both public and private partners in delivery of infrastructure projects. However this partnership also involves great risks which have to be adequately managed and mitigated. Private partners are especially sensitive to revenue risk, since they are mostly interested in the financial viability of the project. Thus they often expect public partners to provide some kind of risk-sharing mechanism in the form of Minimum Revenue Guarantees or abandonment options. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether the real option of abandoning the project increases its value. Therefore the binominal option pricing model and risk-neutral probability approach have been implemented to price the European and American abandonment options for the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT toll road investment. The obtained results suggest that the project value with the American abandonment option is greater than with the European abandonment option, hence implying that American options offer greater flexibility and are more valuable for private partners. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179066 and III 42006

  16. Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management for Finance: Application of Real Options Method for Disaster Risk Sensitive Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUSDHIANTO SETIAWAN

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the application of real options analysis for a project that is in the process of construction and was affected by a natural disaster. The use of the analytical method has become a way of thinking in making decisions that should be taught to business school students. The case in this paper is based on an MBA thesis at the University of Gadjah Mada that was intended as a showcase for application of real options to address real business problems. It shows one of the strategies in mainstreaming disaster risk management in the business school that also answers the needs of businesses in the disaster-prone country.

  17. Economic Evaluation for Energy Business Using Real Options Pricing Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-11-01

    Recently, facing the new era of restructuring, privatization, and liberalization the energy industry in the world is changing rapidly, and thus the uncertain factors tend to increase. This would imply that energy-related business is now confronted with new market risks as well as the simple price risks. The traditional investment valuation method using the concept of net present value (NPV) or internal rate of revenue (IRR) might not incorporate the managerial alternatives which enable managers to respond flexibly to the changes in business environment. This study pointed out the problems of the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method when evaluating a certain capital investment in energy industry. As an alternative, the real option pricing method (ROPM) was proposed, which is widely adopted in the field of profit projection for the venture business. In addition, when applying to energy sector the feasibility of ROPM was discussed, and the frameworks and major results of previous related studies were described. For those using the ROPM in real business, I explained the detailed procedures and solutions of ROPM, and introduced the log-transformed binomial model which provides a more efficient solution. In order to verify the usefulness of the ROPM, this study performed an empirical analysis for a virtual construction and operation project of power plant. And, the results from the ROPM was compared to those from the traditional DCF method. Based on the empirical results, the values of various investment opportunities were shown to be high. Therefore, the project not justified in terms of traditional DCF would turn into the project with a positive gross project value, properly reflecting managerial flexibilities inherent in the original project. (author). 58 refs., 32 figs., 33 tabs.

  18. Applying Real Options for Evaluating Investments in ERP Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagane, Jun; Sekozawa, Teruji

    This paper intends to verify effectiveness of real options approach for evaluating investments in Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERP) and proves how important it is to disclose shadow options potentially embedded in ERP investment. The net present value (NPV) method is principally adopted to evaluate the value of ERP. However, the NPV method assumes no uncertainties exist in the object. It doesn't satisfy the current business circumstances which are filled with dynamic issues. Since the 1990s the effectiveness of option pricing models for Information System (IS) investment to solve issues in the NPV method has been discussed in the IS literature. This paper presents 3 business cases to review the practical advantages of such techniques for IS investments, especially ERP investments. The first case is EDI development. We evaluate the project by a new approach with lighting one of shadow options, EDI implementation. In the second case we reveal an ERP investment has an “expanding option” in a case of eliminating redundancy. The third case describes an option to contract which is deliberately slotted in ERP development to prepare transferring a manufacturing facility.

  19. GASIFICACIÓN DE CARBÓN PARA GENERACIÓN DE ENERGÍA ELÉCTRICA: ANÁLISIS CON VALORACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES COAL GASIFICATION FOR POWER GENERATION: ANALYSIS WITH REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Concha A

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Se evalúa económicamente la utilización de la tecnología de gasificación de carbón en la generación de energía eléctrica, utilizando información secundaria y el enfoque de valoración de opciones reales mediante árboles binomiales de 2 variables. Se analiza el caso de adaptar una central existente de gas natural de ciclo combinado (NGCC para la utilización de syngas a partir de carbón; en un segundo caso, se evalúa la instalación de una nueva central termoeléctrica de carbón pulverizado (PC o alternativamente una central de gasificación de carbón integrada a ciclo combinado (IGCC. En este último caso, se evalúa la opción de "switching" de combustible. Para los precios de los combustibles se emplean modelos de Movimiento Browniano Geométrico No Homogéneo (IGBM y en ambos casos estudiados se analiza en 2 escenarios de precios, incluyendo análisis de sensibilidad. Respecto al primer caso, la adaptación a syngas de una planta NGCC es conveniente económicamente, teniendo el proyecto una alta sensibilidad respecto a la eficiencia. La sensibilidad a la inversión no es significativa, como tampoco a los gastos de operación. Respecto al segundo caso, la conveniencia económica de la planta IGCC frente a la planta PC no es clara en los escenarios de precios considerados. Pero analizada en diversas combinaciones de precios, la planta IGCC de operación flexible alternando dos combustibles puede lograr ventajas económicas. Respecto a la sensibilidad, se repiten las conclusiones mencionadas para el primer caso.The use of coal gasification technology in the generation of electric power is evaluated economically. Secondary information and valuation of real options approach is used, with two variables binomial lattices. First, the retrofit of an existing natural gas combined cycle plant (NGCC for the utilization of syngas from coal is analyzed; on the second case, an economical evaluation is realized for to compare a new Pulverized

  20. Evaluation of Foreign Investment in Power Plants using Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Moritoshi; Zhou, Yicheng

    This paper proposes new methods for evaluating foreign investment in power plants under market uncertainty using a real options approach. We suppose a thermal power plant project in a deregulated electricity market. One of our proposed methods is that we calculate the cash flow generated by the project in a reference year using actual market data to incorporate periodic characteristics of energy prices into a yearly cash flow model. We make the stochastic yearly cash flow model with the initial value which is the cash flow in the reference year, and certain trend and volatility. Then we calculate the real options value (ROV) of the project which has abandonment options using the yearly cash flow model. Another our proposed method is that we evaluate foreign currency/domestic currency exchange rate risk by representing ROV in foreign currency as yearly pay off and exchanging it to ROV in domestic currency using a stochastic exchange rate model. We analyze the effect of the heat rate and operation and maintenance costs of the power plant on ROV, and evaluate exchange rate risk through numerical examples. Our proposed method will be useful for the risk management of foreign investment in power plants.

  1. Real Silver and Its Investment and Business Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novotný Josef

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with investment and business opportunities offered by silver. Silver is the metal used in industry and for investing at financial markets. The main problem related to this real commodity is the issue of “the undervaluation” of its investment options, if compared to gold. If considering silver as the investment option, its investment potential is significantly enhanced by its industrial usage. The aim of this paper is to highlight business and investment opportunities for both professionals and non professional investors at the commodity markets. The price growth of this investment and industrial metal can generate profits for the investors. And on the other hand, industries which cannot do without silver in their production may efficiently utilize the knowledge of setting up its price at the markets.

  2. A Real Option and a Game Theoretic Approach to Corporate Investment Strategy under Competition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.T.J. Smit (Han); L.A. Ankum

    1993-01-01

    textabstractPresents a real options and game-theoretic approach to corporate investment strategy under competition. Analysis of aspects of competition in a microeconomic framework; Forecasting of operating cash inflows based on economic rents or excess profits; Implications of results obtained.

  3. Strategic Options Development and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackermann, Fran; Eden, Colin

    Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) enables a group or individual to construct a graphical representation of a problematic situation, and thus explore options and their ramifications with respect to a complex system of goals or objectives. In addition the method aims to help groups arrive at a negotiated agreement about how to act to resolve the situation. It is based upon the use of causal mapping - a formally constructed means-ends network - as representation form. Because the picture has been constructed using the natural language of the problem owners it becomes a model of the situation that is ‘owned' by those who define the problem. The use of formalities for the construction of the model makes it amenable to a range of analyses as well as encouraging reflection and a deeper understanding. These analyses can be used in a ‘rough and ready' manner by visual inspection or through the use of specialist causal mapping software (Decision Explorer). Each of the analyses helps a group or individual discover important features of the problem situation, and these features facilitate agreeing agood solution. The SODA process is aimed at helping a group learn about the situation they face before they reach agreements. Most significantly the exploration through the causal map leads to a higher probability of more creative solutions and promotes solutions that are more likely to be implemented because the problem construction process is wider and more likely to include richer social dimensions about the blockages to action and organizational change. The basic theories that inform SODA derive from cognitive psychology and social negotiation, where the model acts as a continuously changing representation of the problematic situation - changing as the views of a person or group shift through learning and exploration. This chapter, jointly written by two leading practitioner academics and the original developers of SODA, Colin Eden and Fran Ackermann

  4. Basic real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Sohrab, Houshang H

    2014-01-01

    This expanded second edition presents the fundamentals and touchstone results of real analysis in full rigor, but in a style that requires little prior familiarity with proofs or mathematical language. The text is a comprehensive and largely self-contained introduction to the theory of real-valued functions of a real variable. The chapters on Lebesgue measure and integral have been rewritten entirely and greatly improved. They now contain Lebesgue’s differentiation theorem as well as his versions of the Fundamental Theorem(s) of Calculus. With expanded chapters, additional problems, and an expansive solutions manual, Basic Real Analysis, Second Edition, is ideal for senior undergraduates and first-year graduate students, both as a classroom text and a self-study guide. Reviews of first edition: The book is a clear and well-structured introduction to real analysis aimed at senior undergraduate and beginning graduate students. The prerequisites are few, but a certain mathematical sophistication is required. ....

  5. Introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Michael J

    2008-01-01

    This text forms a bridge between courses in calculus and real analysis. It focuses on the construction of mathematical proofs as well as their final content. Suitable for upper-level undergraduates and graduate students of real analysis, it also provides a vital reference book for advanced courses in mathematics.The four-part treatment begins with an introduction to basic logical structures and techniques of proof, including discussions of the cardinality concept and the algebraic and order structures of the real and rational number systems. Part Two presents in-depth examinations of the compl

  6. Application of Real Options Valuation to R&D Investments in Pharmaceutical Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Huan Ran

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides an insight into the application of real option valuation method to R&D projects in pharmaceutical companies. As one of the most important corporate finance decision-making methods, real option valuation method has been introduced in the last two decades. By applying option valuation methods, real option valuation is a useful tool to company managers. R&D investments in pharmaceutical companies are subject to considerable uncertainty, which may involve possibilities (i...

  7. A real options approach to biotechnology Investment policy - the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-01-01

    in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages...... of the project – and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage...

  8. Real options and asset valuation in competitive energy markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oduntan, Adekunle Richard

    The focus of this work is to develop a robust valuation framework for physical power assets operating in competitive markets such as peaking or mid-merit thermal power plants and baseload power plants. The goal is to develop a modeling framework that can be adapted to different energy assets with different types of operating flexibilities and technical constraints and which can be employed for various purposes such as capital budgeting, business planning, risk management and strategic bidding planning among others. The valuation framework must also be able to capture the reality of power market rules and opportunities, as well as technical constraints of different assets. The modeling framework developed conceptualizes operating flexibilities of power assets as "switching options' whereby the asset operator decides at every decision point whether to switch from one operating mode to another mutually exclusive mode, within the limits of the equipment constraints of the asset. As a current decision to switch operating modes may affect future operating flexibilities of the asset and hence cash flows, a dynamic optimization framework is employed. The developed framework accounts for the uncertain nature of key value drivers by representing them with appropriate stochastic processes. Specifically, the framework developed conceptualizes the operation of a power asset as a multi-stage decision making problem where the operator has to make a decision at every stage to alter operating mode given currently available information about key value drivers. The problem is then solved dynamically by decomposing it into a series of two-stage sub-problems according to Bellman's optimality principle. The solution algorithm employed is the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. The developed valuation framework was adapted for a gas-fired thermal power plant, a peaking hydroelectric power plant and a baseload power plant. This work built on previously published real options valuation

  9. Essential real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Field, Michael

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a rigorous introduction to the techniques and results of real analysis, metric spaces and multivariate differentiation, suitable for undergraduate courses. Starting from the very foundations of analysis, it offers a complete first course in real analysis, including topics rarely found in such detail in an undergraduate textbook such as the construction of non-analytic smooth functions, applications of the Euler-Maclaurin formula to estimates, and fractal geometry.  Drawing on the author’s extensive teaching and research experience, the exposition is guided by carefully chosen examples and counter-examples, with the emphasis placed on the key ideas underlying the theory. Much of the content is informed by its applicability: Fourier analysis is developed to the point where it can be rigorously applied to partial differential equations or computation, and the theory of metric spaces includes applications to ordinary differential equations and fractals. Essential Real Analysis will appeal t...

  10. Modern real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ziemer, William P

    2017-01-01

    This first year graduate text is a comprehensive resource in real analysis based on a modern treatment of measure and integration. Presented in a definitive and self-contained manner, it features a natural progression of concepts from simple to difficult. Several innovative topics are featured, including differentiation of measures, elements of Functional Analysis, the Riesz Representation Theorem, Schwartz distributions, the area formula, Sobolev functions and applications to harmonic functions. Together, the selection of topics forms a sound foundation in real analysis that is particularly suited to students going on to further study in partial differential equations. This second edition of Modern Real Analysis contains many substantial improvements, including the addition of problems for practicing techniques, and an entirely new section devoted to the relationship between Lebesgue and improper integrals. Aimed at graduate students with an understanding of advanced calculus, the text will also appeal to mo...

  11. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  12. Real mathematical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pugh, Charles C

    2015-01-01

    Based on an honors course taught by the author at UC Berkeley, this introduction to undergraduate real analysis gives a different emphasis by stressing the importance of pictures and hard problems. Topics include: a natural construction of the real numbers, four-dimensional visualization, basic point-set topology, function spaces, multivariable calculus via differential forms (leading to a simple proof of the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem), and a pictorial treatment of Lebesgue theory. Over 150 detailed illustrations elucidate abstract concepts and salient points in proofs. The exposition is informal and relaxed, with many helpful asides, examples, some jokes, and occasional comments from mathematicians, such as Littlewood, Dieudonné, and Osserman. This book thus succeeds in being more comprehensive, more comprehensible, and more enjoyable, than standard introductions to analysis. New to the second edition of Real Mathematical Analysis is a presentation of Lebesgue integration done almost entirely using the un...

  13. A real options approach to biotechnology investment policy-the case of developing a Campylobacter vaccine to poultry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lund, Mogens; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård

    2016-06-01

    The aim of the article is to identify and analyse public-private incentives for the development and marketing of new animal vaccines within a real options methodological framework, and to investigate how real options methodology can be utilized to support economic incentives for vaccine development in a cost-effective way. The development of a vaccine against Campylobacter jejuni in poultry is applied as a case study. Employing the real options methodology, the net present value of the vaccine R&D project becomes larger than a purely probabilistic expected present value throughout the different stages of the project - and the net present value becomes larger, when more types of real options are taken into consideration. The insight from the real options analysis reveals opportunities for new policies to promote the development of animal vaccines. One such approach might be to develop schemes combining stage-by-stage optimized subsidies in the individual development stages, with proper account taken of investors'/developers' economic incentives to proceed, sell or cancel the project in the respective stages. Another way of using the real options approach to support the development of desirable animal vaccines could be to issue put options for the vaccine candidate, enabling vaccine developers to hedge against the economic risk from market volatility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Introductory real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kolmogorov, A N; Silverman, Richard A

    1975-01-01

    Self-contained and comprehensive, this elementary introduction to real and functional analysis is readily accessible to those with background in advanced calculus. It covers basic concepts and introductory principles in set theory, metric spaces, topological and linear spaces, linear functionals and linear operators, and much more. 350 problems. 1970 edition.

  15. Real analysis on intervals

    CERN Document Server

    Choudary, A D R

    2014-01-01

    The book targets undergraduate and postgraduate mathematics students and helps them develop a deep understanding of mathematical analysis. Designed as a first course in real analysis, it helps students learn how abstract mathematical analysis solves mathematical problems that relate to the real world. As well as providing a valuable source of inspiration for contemporary research in mathematics, the book helps students read, understand and construct mathematical proofs, develop their problem-solving abilities and comprehend the importance and frontiers of computer facilities and much more. It offers comprehensive material for both seminars and independent study for readers with a basic knowledge of calculus and linear algebra. The first nine chapters followed by the appendix on the Stieltjes integral are recommended for graduate students studying probability and statistics, while the first eight chapters followed by the appendix on dynamical systems will be of use to students of biology and environmental scie...

  16. Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

    2017-06-01

    Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

  17. Real Time Text Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senthilkumar, K.; Ruchika Mehra Vijayan, E.

    2017-11-01

    This paper aims to illustrate real time analysis of large scale data. For practical implementation we are performing sentiment analysis on live Twitter feeds for each individual tweet. To analyze sentiments we will train our data model on sentiWordNet, a polarity assigned wordNet sample by Princeton University. Our main objective will be to efficiency analyze large scale data on the fly using distributed computation. Apache Spark and Apache Hadoop eco system is used as distributed computation platform with Java as development language

  18. Analysis of Options Contract, Option Pricing in Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Tamidy

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Risk is an essential component in the production and sale of agricultural products. Due to the nature of agricultural products, the people who act in this area including farmers and businesspersons encounter unpredictable fluctuations of prices. On the other hand, the firms that process agricultural products also face fluctuation of price of agricultural inputs. Given that the Canola is considered as one of the inputs of product processing factories, control of unpredictable fluctuations of the price of this product would increase the possibility of correct decision making for farmers and managers of food processing industries. The best available tool for control and management of the price risk is the use of future markets and options. It is evident that the pricing is the main pillar in every trade. Therefore, offering a fair price for the options will be very important. In fact, options trading in the options market create cost insurance stopped. In this way, which can reduce the risks of deflation created in the future, if the person entitled to the benefits of the price increase occurs in the future. Unlike the futures, market where the seller had to deliver the product on time, in the options market, there is no such compulsion. In addition, this is one of the strengths of this option contract, because if there is not enough product for delivery to the futures market as result of chilling, in due course, the farmers suffer, but in the options market there will be a loss. In this study, the setup options of rape, as a product, as well as inputs has been paid for industry. Materials and Methods: In this section. The selection criteria of the disposal of asset base for valuation of European put options and call option is been introduced. That for obtain this purpose, some characteristics of the goods must considered: 1-Unpredictable fluctuations price of underlying asset 2 -large underlying asset cash market 3- The possibility

  19. Identification of the real options in a program of nuclear plants; Identificacion de las opciones reales en un programa de plantas nucleoelectricas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camacho G, D.; Diaz N, M. J.; Reinking C, A. [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, Jiutepec, Morelos 62550 (Mexico)]. e-mail: danielkmacho@yahoo.com.mx

    2008-07-01

    The development of our societies and our economies this intimately related to electric power and this as well with the generating sources, due to the projection of world-wide growth should go associate with a strategy of growth of energy generation. Considering to the nuclear power as an option to satisfy the energy needs that a country can provide two main immediate benefits: The stabilization of prices of security of provision of electric power of the nation. The care of the environment, since the gas discharges greenhouse are almost null. At the moment nuclear energy represents economically a viable option for the capital investment, taking into account the development from technology, the policies implemented by the state and the prices of other fuels. Due to the great investment that its require for the nuclear plants are necessary to use financial tools that allow to analyze the future scenes in which ours investment can be seen affected and to value the flexibility of being able to enlarge, to postpone or to stop our project in order to have majors profits or to diminish the lost ones. This valuation of the flexibility can be obtained from the called method Real Options. By analysis of Real Options the process is understood to apply to the methodology of the Financial Options to the valuation of projects or the management of real assets. The Real Options appear in flexible plans, projects, activities or enterprise investments, like for example, to leave or to sell the investment project before concluding it, changing to their use or its technology, to prolong their life, the option to choose, one or the other capacity, among others possibilities. In this work is an example of the application of the method of Real Options in the decision to invest or to defer the investment for the construction of a nuclear plant following the behavior of the tariffs in the market or the costs of generation of other technologies with which a nuclear plant competes. (Author)

  20. A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Bekkum (Sjoerd); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); J.T.J. Smit (Han)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects

  1. REAL OPTIONS COMPARED TO TRADITIONAL COMPANY VALUATION METHODS: POSSIBILITIES AND CONSTRAINTS IN THEIR USE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulyana Dzyuma

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the article is the presentation of an unconventional method of establishing the value of the company together with investment ventures – basing on the concept of real options (Real Option Valuation – ROV. The option calculation can be applied in many areas, such as: evaluation of investment effectiveness, valuation of the company and its separate parts, estimating the value of company assets and liabilities, credit risk assessment. The concept of real options is very popular all over the world. However, in Poland we rarely use option methods in the above areas, although the method is currently considered a revolutionary solution to the problem of underassessment of huge risk projects.

  2. DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT RESEARCH IN NEW ZEALAND: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tran, Van

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Real Options (RO has been a universally accepted concept in a number of major industries. However, its use in the construction supply chain management (CSCM sector has been limited. Some rare supply chain management RO studies have shown a number of limitations. First, there is a lack of a rigorous theoretical RO framework pertaining specifically to CSCM. All such supply chain management RO studies are based off RO theories or models developed for other sectors (engineering, infrastructure, natural resources. And second, attempts to extend real option to wider uses in CSCM seem premature at the present. This paper reviews all recent literature pertaining to real options and real options applied specifically to the construction supply chain management area. The study proposes a research programme pertaining to CSCM in New Zealand in order to enhance the current understanding of RO in this area and in the process develop a comprehensive theory for the RO application in New Zealand CSCM.

  3. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia

    Full Text Available In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR.The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying

  4. Corporate social responsibility: a real options approach to the challenge of financial sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosch-Badia, Maria-Teresa; Montllor-Serrats, Joan; Tarrazon-Rodon, Maria-Antonia

    2015-01-01

    In contemporary complex societies, social values like ethics, corporate social responsibility, and being respectful with the environment, among others, are becoming social requirements. Corporations are expected to fulfill them and, according to empirical evidence, an overwhelming majority aspires to good social valuation. At the same time, the maximization of market share value in the long run continues to be the central corporate goal. Making environmental and social expenses compatible with value creation is a central challenge for corporations since it implies the financial sustainability of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The value creation capacity of CSR projects, mainly through innovation, is widely acknowledged in economic literature and corporate practice. This fact arouses the need of having a quantitative framework capable of summarizing the value creation capacity of the variables involved in CSR projects. With this aim we build up a sensitivity analysis of real option ratios that studies and quantifies the value creation capacity of CSR projects connected with innovation. Ratio analysis has the advantage of being scale independent. Hence, it furnishes a homogeneous framework to express the interaction of value creation variables and, thus, supports strategic thinking quantitatively. Often, CSR expenses can be regarded as preliminary projects that create the opportunity to undertake a full future project. For them, we obtain the minimum expectations scenario that makes financially sustainable a preliminary project that can be interpreted as a call option. We propose a classification of CSR projects from the decision analysis perspective following a two-fold approach: Their relationship with value creation and their links with existing corporate activities. This classification of CSR projects aims at contributing to choose the best capital budgeting method to study the financial sustainability of the project and identifying those CSR projects

  5. Influence of Transaction costs and real options on firms' own-or-rent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on secondary data on 79 companies in Mekelle, Ethiopia, this paper investigates the influence of transaction cost and real option factors on firms' own or rent decision for building resources. Empirical results suggest that both transaction cost and option factors have significant influence on firms' own or rent decision.

  6. Real Option Games with R&D and Learning Spillovers

    OpenAIRE

    Martzoukos, Spiros H; Zacharias, Eleftherios

    2008-01-01

    We model pre-investment R&D decisions in the presence of spillover effects in an option pricing framework with analytic tractability. Two firms face two decisions that are solved for interdependently in a two-stage game. The first-stage decision is: what is the optimal level of coordination (optimal policy/technology choice)? The second-stage decision is: what is the optimal effort for a given level of the spillover effects and the cost of information acquisition? The framework is extende...

  7. Acquiring Enterprise Systems as a Portfolio of Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-30

    0.15 a3 Option for HR,  CRM , and ERP (growth) 0 0 0 0.35 0 1.1 0.15 P3 a1 delay 0 0.45 0.55 0.3 0 0 0.3 a2 SolidWorks upgrade to SW Simulation Premium...information required by Marine Air ground Task Forces (MAGTFs). Oracle 11i business suite. Global Combat Support System Marine Corps (GCSS-MC...Technology enabler for Logistics Modernization strategy; An Oracle 11i e- business suite to replace multiple legacy systems. Converting Project to

  8. Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis M. Abadie

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We address the valuation of an operating wind farm and the finite-lived option to invest in it under different reward/support schemes: a constant feed-in tariff, a premium on top of the electricity market price (either a fixed premium or a variable subsidy such as a renewable obligation certificate or ROC, and a transitory subsidy, among others. Futures contracts on electricity with ever longer maturities enable market-based valuations to be undertaken. The model considers up to three sources of uncertainty: the electricity price, the level of wind generation, and the certificate (ROC price where appropriate. When analytical solutions are lacking, we resort to a trinomial lattice combined with Monte Carlo simulation; we also use a two-dimensional binomial lattice when uncertainty in the ROC price is considered. Our data set refers to the UK. The numerical results show the impact of several factors involved in the decision to invest: the subsidy per MWh generated, the initial lump-sum subsidy, the maturity of the investment option, and electricity price volatility. Different combinations of variables can help bring forward investments in wind generation. One-off policies, e.g., a transitory initial subsidy, seem to have a stronger effect than a fixed premium per MWh produced.

  9. A quadranomial real options model for evaluation of emissions trading and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkis, Joseph; Tamarkin, Maurry

    2005-11-01

    Green house gas (GHG) emissions have been tied to global climate change. One popular policy instrument that seems to have gained credibility with explicit mention of its application in the Kyoto Protocol is the use of permit trading and cap-and-trade mechanisms. Organizations functioning within this environment will need to manage their resources appropriately to remain competitive. Organizations will either have the opportunity to purchase emissions credits (offsets) from a market trading scheme or seek to reduce their emissions through different measures. Some measures may include investment in new technologies that will reduce their reliance on GHG emitting practices. In many countries, large organizations and institutions generate their own power to operate their facilities. Much of this power is generated (or bought) from GHG producing technology. Specific renewable energy sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic technology may become more feasible alternatives available to a large percentage of these organizations if they are able to take advantage and incorporate the market for GHG emissions trading in their analyses. To help organizations evaluate investment in these renewable energy technologies we introduce a real options based model that will take into consideration uncertainties associated with the technology and those associated with the GHG trading market. The real options analysis will consider both the stochastic (uncertainty) nature of the exercise price of the technology and the stochastic nature of the market trading price of the GHG emissions.

  10. An introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, Derek G

    1973-01-01

    An Introduction to Real Analysis presents the concepts of real analysis and highlights the problems which necessitate the introduction of these concepts. Topics range from sets, relations, and functions to numbers, sequences, series, derivatives, and the Riemann integral. This volume begins with an introduction to some of the problems which are met in the use of numbers for measuring, and which provide motivation for the creation of real analysis. Attention then turns to real numbers that are built up from natural numbers, with emphasis on integers, rationals, and irrationals. The chapters tha

  11. Elements of real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Al-Gwaiz, MA

    2006-01-01

    PREFACEPRELIMINARIES Sets FunctionsREAL NUMBERSField AxiomsOrder Axioms Natural Numbers, Integers, Rational NumbersCompleteness Axiom Decimal Representation of Real Numbers Countable SetsSEQUENCESSequences and ConvergenceProperties of Convergent Sequences Monotonic SequencesThe Cauchy Criterion Subsequences Upper and Lower Limits Open and Closed Sets INFINITE SERIESBasic Properties Convergence TestsLIMIT OF A FUNCTIONLimit of a Function Basic Theorems Some Extensions of the LimitMonotonic Functions CONTINUITY Continuous Functions Combinations of Continuous Functions Continuity on an IntervalUniformContinuityCompact Sets and ContinuityDIFFERENTIATION The DerivativeTheMean Value TheoremL'Hôpital's RuleTaylor's TheoremTHE RIEMANN INTEGRALRiemann Integrability Darboux's Theorem and Riemann SumsProperties of the Integral The Fundamental Theorem of Calculus Improper IntegralsSEQUENCES AND SERIES OF FUNCTIONSSequences of FunctionsProperties of Uniform ConvergenceSeries of FunctionsPower Series LEBESGUE MEASURE Clas...

  12. A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Juul, Nina; Drud, Michael Stolbjerg Leni

    2016-01-01

    A real options model is developed to evaluate wind energy investments in a realistic and easily applicable way. Considering optimal investment timing and sizing (capacity choice), the model introduces a capacity constraint as part of the optimisation. Several correlated uncertainty factors...... are combined into a single stochastic process, which allows for analytical (closed-form) solutions. The approach is well suited for quantitative policy analysis, such as the comparison of different support schemes. A case study for offshore wind in the Baltic Sea quantifies differences in investment incentives...... under feed-in tariffs, feed-in premiums and tradable green certificates. Investors can under certificate schemes require up to 3% higher profit margins than under tariffs due to higher variance in profits. Feed-in tariffs may lead to 15% smaller project sizes. This trade-off between faster deployment...

  13. Real and complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Apelian, Christopher; Taft, Earl; Nashed, Zuhair

    2009-01-01

    The Spaces R, Rk, and CThe Real Numbers RThe Real Spaces RkThe Complex Numbers CPoint-Set Topology Bounded SetsClassification of Points Open and Closed SetsNested Intervals and the Bolzano-Weierstrass Theorem Compactness and Connectedness Limits and Convergence Definitions and First Properties Convergence Results for SequencesTopological Results for Sequences Properties of Infinite SeriesManipulations of Series in RFunctions: Definitions and Limits DefinitionsFunctions as MappingsSome Elementary Complex FunctionsLimits of FunctionsFunctions: Continuity and Convergence Continuity Uniform Continuity Sequences and Series of FunctionsThe DerivativeThe Derivative for f: D1 → RThe Derivative for f: Dk → RThe Derivative for f: Dk → RpThe Derivative for f: D → CThe Inverse and Implicit Function TheoremsReal IntegrationThe Integral of f: [a, b] → RProperties of the Riemann Integral Further Development of Integration TheoryVector-Valued and Line IntegralsComplex IntegrationIntroduction to Complex Integrals Fu...

  14. Strategic real options : Entry deterrence and exit inducement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lavrutich, Maria

    2016-01-01

    The focus of this thesis is the analysis of the strategic behavior of the firms undertaking an irreversible investment decision in an uncertain environment. In particular, this thesis contains three studies, in which we develop continuous-time investment models under uncertainty with lumpy

  15. The Optimal Timing of Strategic Action – A Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon G. Sollars

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available he possibility of a first-mover advantage arises in a variety of strategic choices, including product introductions, business start-ups, and mergers and acquisitions. The strategic management literature reflects ambiguity regarding the likelihood that a first mover can or will capture additional value. This paper uses a real options approach to address the optimal timing of strategic moves. Previous studies have modeled real options using either a perpetual or a European financial option. With these models, a strategic choice could only be made either without respect to a time frame (perpetual or at a fixed point in time (European option. Neither case is realistic. Companies typically have strategic options with only a limited time frame due to market factors, but companies may choose to act at any time within that constraint. To reflect this reality, we adapt a method for valuing an American financial option on a dividend paying stock to the real options context. The method presented in this paper proposes a solution for the optimum value for a project that should trigger a strategic choice, and highlights the value lost by not acting optimally. We use simulation results to show that the time frame available to make a strategic choice has an important effect on both the project value for when action should be taken, as well as on the value of waiting to invest at the optimal time. The results presented in this paper help to clarify the ambiguity that is found in the strategic management literature regarding the possibility of obtaining a first-mover advantage. Indeed, a first mover that acts sub-optimally could incur losses or at least not gain any advantage. A first mover that waits to invest at the right time based on the superior information supplied by models based on real options could be better positioned to obtain the benefits that might come from the first move.

  16. THE ROLE OF VENTURE CAPITAL IN THE BRIDGING OF FUNDING GAPS – A REAL OPTIONS REASONING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazekas Balazs

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Funding gaps occur when for a particular group of enterprises there are not enough available funds to finance their growth. Such enterprises are typically young, innovative and technology-oriented startup companies. These companies do not have significant revenues or collaterals; hence they are not suitable for bank financing. On the other hand the information problems decrease their chances to attract investors and also there is high uncertainty involved in these companies. The method of venture capital financing was established to operate in this financing gap and to provide funds for these technology-oriented, young startup enterprises. There is an extensive literature that highlights that venture capitalists are capable and willing to provide financing for these enterprises as a result of their special expertise and business experience and their sophisticated value creation methods. In this article the authors introduce a real options reasoning in order to give an interpretation of venture capital decision-making method and why venture capital is willing to operate in funding gaps and how it is able to bridge them. With the involvement in the operation of the invested companies venture capitalists create options that increase the value of the firm. Also in option-valuation the higher the uncertainty of the asset is, the higher the value of the option is. That is the reason, why other passive funding forms reject the financing of startup enterprises, while venture capital is willing to provide funds for them. In this article we will describe the problem of funding gaps, than we will introduce real options and their effect on investment decision. In the last part of the article we will demonstrate how real options appear and are created in venture capital financing as a result of its special characteristics and how the real options approach can explain the ability of venture capitalist of bridging funding gaps.

  17. Strange functions in real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kharazishvili, AB

    2005-01-01

    Weierstrass and Blancmange nowhere differentiable functions, Lebesgue integrable functions with everywhere divergent Fourier series, and various nonintegrable Lebesgue measurable functions. While dubbed strange or "pathological," these functions are ubiquitous throughout mathematics and play an important role in analysis, not only as counterexamples of seemingly true and natural statements, but also to stimulate and inspire the further development of real analysis.Strange Functions in Real Analysis explores a number of important examples and constructions of pathological functions. After introducing the basic concepts, the author begins with Cantor and Peano-type functions, then moves to functions whose constructions require essentially noneffective methods. These include functions without the Baire property, functions associated with a Hamel basis of the real line, and Sierpinski-Zygmund functions that are discontinuous on each subset of the real line having the cardinality continuum. Finally, he considers e...

  18. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...

  19. Hydrogen-Fuel Infrastructure Investment with Endogenous Demand : A Real Options Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31485021X; Kool, C.J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/074563335; Engelen, P.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304832227

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the impact that realized investment in new infrastructure has on adoption speed in a real options framework for investment decisions and analyze the consequences of this dependence for optimal investment. For the adoption diffusion process, we use a modified

  20. Real options approach to inter-sectoral migration of U.S.farm labor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulcan Onel; Barry K. Goodwin

    2014-01-01

    The core of the literature on inter-sectoral labor migration is based on net present value models of investment in which individuals are assumed to migrate to take advantage of positive wage differentials. In this article, we argue that a real options approach, taken together with the adjustment costs associated with sectoral relocation, may provide a basis for...

  1. A Real Option Model with Uncertain, Sequential Investment and with Time to Build

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Eugênio da Silva

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available This article develops a real option model with uncertain and sequential investment and with time to build. The model includes options to entry and to exit the activity and addresses the maximization problem of a company in view of the investment opportunity. The differential equation of the asset is obtained by using dynamic programming and risk neutral evaluation. Particularly, for the construction period, the differential equation is partial and elliptical, which demands the use of numeric methods. The main results of the article are that (i with uncertain and sequential investment and with time to build, the waiting value, which creates a gap between the investment decision rule based on NPV and that based on a real option model, may not very significant and (ii the increase in uncertainty may anticipate the decision to investment.

  2. Constructive real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Goldstein, Allen A

    1967-01-01

    This text introduces the methods of applied functional analysis and applied convexity. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate students of mathematics, science, and technology, it focuses on the solutions to two closely related problems. The first concerns finding roots of systems of equations and operative equations in a given region. The second involves extremal problems of minimizing or maximizing functions defined on subsets of finite and infinite dimensional spaces. Rather than citing practical algorithms for solving problems, this treatment provides the tools for studying problem-related algorithms.Topics include iterations and fixed points, metric spaces, nonlinear programming, polyhedral convex programming, and infinite convex programming. Additional subjects include linear spaces and convex sets and applications to integral equations. Students should be familiar with advanced calculus and linear algebra. As an introduction to elementary functional analysis motivated by application, this vol...

  3. Real Analysis A Historical Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Stahl, Saul

    2011-01-01

    A provocative look at the tools and history of real analysis This new edition of Real Analysis: A Historical Approach continues to serve as an interesting read for students of analysis. Combining historical coverage with a superb introductory treatment, this book helps readers easily make the transition from concrete to abstract ideas. The book begins with an exciting sampling of classic and famous problems first posed by some of the greatest mathematicians of all time. Archimedes, Fermat, Newton, and Euler are each summoned in turn, illuminating the utility of infinite, power, and trigonome

  4. The Interaction between Real Options and Financial Hedging: An Empirical Study of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    The interaction between real options and financial hedging is analyzed empirically. A majority of Danish non-financial companies either (1) chooses at times not to hedge an exchange rate operating exposure financially due to the possibility of the company to react to changes in exchange rates...... by undertaking real actions (exercising real options) such as to abandon a market or establish production in a foreign country or (2) thinks it is likely that they will actually react to changes in exchange rates by undertaking such real actions. The role of real options in actual management of exchange rate...

  5. Dynamic reservoir management with real-option risk hedging as a robust adaptation to nonstationary climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinschneider, Scott; Brown, Casey

    2012-05-01

    The implications of climate change and the potential nonstationarity of the hydrologic record necessitate innovative approaches to water management. This study presents a novel adaptation strategy for water reservoir management under nonstationary hydrologic conditions. Seasonal hydrologic forecasts and a real-option instrument allow reservoir operations that dynamically adapt to an evolving hydrologic record. System operating policies are conditioned on seasonal hydrologic forecasts to account for year-to-year variability and climate change and a real option is established to hedge against the risk associated with operational forecasts and unexpected climate outcomes. This scheme is implemented over an ensemble of climate futures based on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Two alternative management strategies are considered, one in which system operations are optimized for the GCM-based ensemble mean projection of the future and a baseline strategy in which assumptions of stationarity are maintained and operations are left unchanged from historic norms. The approach is evaluated for a water supply-hydropower facility on the Westfield River in the northeast United States. Results suggest that seasonal hydrologic forecasts are a promising adaptation to nonstationary hydrology, even without the support of a risk hedging option. Surprisingly, the option approach enabled even a stationary assumption to perform well in the future, suggesting that option instruments alone can act as a robust adaptation mechanism.

  6. Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA Valuation: From The Discounted Cash Flows (DCF Approach To The Real Options Approach (ROA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available There exists an abysm between market prices and traditional valuation approaches such as Discounted Cash Flows (DCF, a fact that neither academics nor practitioners could continue ignoring. Recently, a complementary approach has taken a foothold into the valuation world. Building on the DCF approach yet going further in the sense of incorporating flexibility in management investment decisions, and taking advantage of the advances in option pricing theory, the real options approach (ROA has become the alternative to capital budgeting and, lately, to corporate valuation. Empirical evidence shows that ROA explains actual prices better than DCF approaches and nowadays there is no question that from a theoretical point of view, ROA is a much more appealing concept than passive NPV. However, its acceptance by practitioners has been very slow due to the complexity of real options pricing.Existe un abismo entre precios de Mercado y la valoración estimada por métodos tradicionales tales como Flujos de Caja Descontados, un hecho que ni académicos ni practicantes pueden continuar ignorando. Recientemente, una metodología complementaria ha tomado gran fuerza. Partiendo de los Flujos de Caja Descontados, pero incorporando flexibilidad en las decisiones de inversión y aprovechando los avances en la teoría de valoración de opciones, el enfoque de opciones reales (ROA se ha convertido en la alternativa para presupuestación de capital y valoración de empresas. La evidencia empírica muestra que ROA explica los precios de mercado mejor que los enfoques basados en flujos de caja descontados y, hoy en día, no hay discusión de que es más atractivo desde un punto de vista teórico; sin embargo, su utilización en la práctica ha sido muy limitada debido a las dificultades que presenta la valoración de las opciones reales.

  7. "Let’s Wait and See!": The Real Option to Switch as a Value Component of Customer Relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, J.; Roemer, E.

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  8. In or Out: The Effect of Euro Membership on the Exercise of Real Business Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos

    2011-01-01

    This empirical study of manufacturing firms (NAICS 33) in the EU15 countries goes beyond the trade statistics that have indicated only a small to negligible effect from the introduction of the Euro and shows that the introduction of the Euro has made Euro firms (firms based in one of the twelve...... Euro countries) more inclined than non-Euro firms (firms based in one of the three non-Euro countries: UK, Sweden and Denmark) to undertake various forms of real actions (exercise real business options) such as to establish alliances / partnerships, to enter new markets / market segments, to switch...

  9. Bilişim Teknolojisi Projelerinde Reel Opsiyonlar (Real Options in Information Technology Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İpek Deveci KOCAKOÇ

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Many sources such as the immaturity, complexity and unpredictable evolution of the technologies themselves, and the difficulty of predicting the market demand generally cause uncertainty in the Information Technology (IT projects. Managerial flexibility has value in the context of uncertain IT projects, as management can continuously gather information about uncertain project and market characteristics and, based on this information, change its course of action. As traditional capital budgeting (or project appraisal approaches fail to consider embedded managerial flexibility in projects, the new investment evaluation approach called “real options” has come on the scene recently. “Options thinking,” an emerging investment management philosophy based on the theory of financial options can provide a promising foundation for hedging the risks under uncertainty. This paper aims at analyzing a real IT investment having growth opportunities by using real options approach. Specifically, the value of investing in a software project as well as embedded flexibility in this opportunity is modeled as an option contract. The expected costs required for completing the project and thereafter the resulting asset value are considered as the base-case parameters of this contract. Option values derived from Binomial method are used for evaluating the project and the optimal investment policy is determined based on these values. As a result, it is shown that the value of an IT project having flexibility can differ from one obtained with traditional capital budgeting methods and a rejected project which was seen as unprofitable before can turn a profitable one through embedded flexibilities.

  10. Elementary real and complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Shilov, Georgi E

    1996-01-01

    In this book the renowned Russian mathematician Georgi E. Shilov brings his unique perspective to real and complex analysis, an area of perennial interest in mathematics. Although there are many books available on the topic, the present work is specially designed for undergraduates in mathematics, science and engineering. A high level of mathematical sophistication is not required.The book begins with a systematic study of real numbers, understood to be a set of objects satisfying certain definite axioms. The concepts of a mathematical structure and an isomorphism are introduced in Chapter 2,

  11. A Real Options Approach to Quantity and Cost Optimization for Lifetime and Bridge Buys of Parts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    risk-free rate should be used when assessing buy sizes. 4.1 The Rochester Electronics Problem Rochester Electronics suggested a practical case study ...quantity by 10%-50%. Over time, the buffers often increase due to pain experienced by engineers.1 Quantitative approaches to the lifetime/bridge buy ...provides a demonstration case . 2.1 Valuation Methodology A real option is the right, but not the obligation, to undertake certain business

  12. ANALYSIS OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY OPTIONAL COURSE: GEOINFORMTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CRISTIAN STĂNILĂ

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the first part, we presented the concept of curriculum and analysed aspects related to the introduction of school-based curriculum in secondary education in Romania. The objective of this study was to analyse the curriculum of a Geoinformatics optional course, the “annual plan”, the “learning unit plan”, the learning activities included in the Geoinformatics optional course, the students’ achievement in this course and their views on the subject matter. In order to identify the students’ opinions about the course, we used the questionnaire as the survey method. We concluded that this optional course met the students’ expectations and interests, being correlated to the prospects of evolution of the knowledge-based society.

  13. The importance of Real Options Theory in the analysis of investment: what is the added value to a GTL (Gas to Liquid) plant considering managerial flexibility; Qual o valor agregado a uma planta 'Gas to Liquid' considerando-se a flexibilidade gerencial: a importancia da teoria das opcoes reais na analise de investimentos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Francisco, Marcela Lobo [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The goal of this article is to do an investment analysis applying Real Options Theory in the plant Gas to Liquid (GTL). This analysis is the most indicated, because there are several flexibilities in this plant, related to the inputs (many products can be applied) as well the outputs (there are many possible combinations to use). In order to make the analysis as close as possible of reality and the most accurate it became fundamental to calculate the value that those flexibilities add to final value of the plant. It is going to be calculated the value of switch use of inputs (possibility to each semester to choose different resources) and the value of switch use of outputs (the possibility of the plant to produce more than one combination of outputs). Although in order to be feasible the implementation of the real option of switch use it is necessary to know if the added value is bigger or lesser from the cost of implementation. In the research it is achieve the conclusion that the value of switch use of inputs is lower than the cost of its implementation. (author)

  14. Multidimensional real analysis I differentiation

    CERN Document Server

    Duistermaat, J J; van Braam Houckgeest, J P

    2004-01-01

    Part one of the authors' comprehensive and innovative work on multidimensional real analysis. This book is based on extensive teaching experience at Utrecht University and gives a thorough account of differential analysis in multidimensional Euclidean space. It is an ideal preparation for students who wish to go on to more advanced study. The notation is carefully organized and all proofs are clean, complete and rigorous. The authors have taken care to pay proper attention to all aspects of the theory. In many respects this book presents an original treatment of the subject and it contains man

  15. The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach The Value of a Biotechnology Start-up: Creative Destruction and Real Options Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Maya Ochoa

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The value of investments in high growth start-up firms is difficult to assess because payments are far in the future and their arrival is uncertain. Some of these firms may seem overvalued according to traditional methods, such as the Net Present Value, which fails to account for three drivers of value for highly innovative industries: intellectual capital as the engine of innovation, market power as the expectation of monopolistic power when innovating, and a growth option which may be exercised in the case of success.This paper presents a case study on a biotechnology start-up and applies the Creative Destruction – Real Options approach (CD-ROA (Maya, 2004 which takes into account all three drivers of value and is able to explain the high prices investors pay for shares of a company in this industry. It proves that such prices are not cases of overpricing but of recognition of the large growth potential of firms which are part of highly innovative industries.La valoración de la inversión en compañías nacientes de alto crecimiento no estarea fácil, pues los ingresos esperados se generan en un futuro lejano y bajo granincertidumbre. De acuerdo con métodos tradicionales de valoración como el ValorPresente Neto, el mercado parece sobrevalorar algunas de estas compañías. Ello sedebe a que estos métodos tradicionales no tienen en cuenta tres elementos esencialesque determinan el valor en estos casos: el capital intelectual como el motor de lainnovación, el poder de mercado por la expectativa de ingresos monopolísticos sise da la innovación y una opción real de crecimiento que puede ser ejercida en casode éxito.Este artículo aplica a una empresa de biotecnología el enfoque de opciones realesy destrucción creativa (Maya, 2004, el cual incluye estos tres determinantes delvalor y logra explicar el alto precio que los inversionistas pagan por una acción deeste tipo de empresas. Se demuestra que éste no es un caso de

  16. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  17. The Decision of Enterprises during the Process of Technological Innovation Diffusion Based on Real Option Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guozhong Yang

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on real option theory, the article analyses the decision-making of enterprises during the process of technological innovation diffusion under an uncertain circumstance. Under the assumption that the returns of enterprises follow geometric Brownian motion, the article firstly estimates the transition value of imitating technology innovators and the average latency of imitation, then it analyses the influence of every parameter on the diffusion process. It can be concluded that both the market demand and the rate have significant effects on the diffusion rate of innovative technology.

  18. The impact of real options on willingness to pay for mortality risk reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Niclas A; Svensson, Mikael

    2009-05-01

    Public investments are dynamic in nature, and decision making must account for the uncertainty, irreversibility and potential for future learning. In this paper we adapt the theory for investment under uncertainty for a public referendum setting and perform the first empirical test to show that estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) from stated preference surveys are highly dependent on the inclusion of the option value. Our results indicate an option value of a major economic magnitude. This implies that previously reported VSL estimates, used in societal benefit-cost analysis of health investments, are exaggerated.

  19. Real-time analysis keratometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, Iwao P. (Inventor); Adachi, Yoshifumi (Inventor); Frazer, Robert E. (Inventor)

    1987-01-01

    A computer assisted keratometer in which a fiducial line pattern reticle illuminated by CW or pulsed laser light is projected on a corneal surface through lenses, a prismoidal beamsplitter quarterwave plate, and objective optics. The reticle surface is curved as a conjugate of an ideal corneal curvature. The fiducial image reflected from the cornea undergoes a polarization shift through the quarterwave plate and beamsplitter whereby the projected and reflected beams are separated and directed orthogonally. The reflected beam fiducial pattern forms a moire pattern with a replica of the first recticle. This moire pattern contains transverse aberration due to differences in curvature between the cornea and the ideal corneal curvature. The moire pattern is analyzed in real time by computer which displays either the CW moire pattern or a pulsed mode analysis of the transverse aberration of the cornea under observation, in real time. With the eye focused on a plurality of fixation points in succession, a survey of the entire corneal topography is made and a contour map or three dimensional plot of the cornea can be made as a computer readout in addition to corneal radius and refractive power analysis.

  20. Real Options Valuation of U.S. Federal Renewable Energy Research,Development, Demonstration, and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2005-03-01

    Benefits analysis of US Federal government funded research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) programs for renewable energy (RE) technology improvement typically employs a deterministic forecast of the cost and performance of renewable and nonrenewable fuels. The benefits estimate for a program derives from the difference between two forecasts, with and without the RD3 in place. The deficiencies of the current approach are threefold: (1) it does not consider uncertainty in the cost of non-renewable energy (NRE), and the option or insurance value of deploying RE if and when NRE costs rise; (2) it does not consider the ability of the RD3 manager to adjust the RD3 effort to suit the evolving state of the world, and the option value of this flexibility; and (3) it does not consider the underlying technical risk associated with RD3, and the impact of that risk on the programs optimal level of RD3 effort. In this paper, a rudimentary approach to determining the option value of publicly funded RE RD3 is developed. The approach seeks to tackle the first deficiency noted above by providing an estimate of the options benefit of an RE RD3 program in a future with uncertain NRE costs.While limited by severe assumptions, a computable lattice of options values reveals the economic intuition underlying the decision-making process. An illustrative example indicates how options expose both the insurance and timing values inherent in a simplified RE RD3 program that coarsely approximates the aggregation of current Federal RE RD3.This paper also discusses the severe limitations of this initial approach, and identifies needed model improvements before the approach can adequately respond to the RE RD3 analysis challenge.

  1. Valuing synergies in strategic mergers and acquisitions using the real options approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Loukianova

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the current paper is to elaborate the model for assessing cumulative synergetic effect in M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions deals on the basis of a real options approach. The majority of papers on the synergetic effects of M&A deals typically focus on a particular type of synergy, while the current paper proposes a model that accounts for the cumulative simultaneous effect of different types of operating and financial synergies. The methodology of our research is loosely based on Datar-Mathews real option valuation model, which is flexible and intuitive for practitioners. Formulae for assessing eight types of synergy typically arising from M&A deals are developed. They are integrated into a single model to assess their cumulative effect on the M&A deal using a simulation modelling approach. The method was used ex post to find synergy values in two recent M&A deals in the pharmaceutical industry, and produced sound results. The proposed approach to value target companies could be used by firms before an M&A deal in the due diligence process. Using this tool a company can build a bidding strategy and define the maximum premium it can pay for the target.

  2. Introduction to Real Analysis An Educational Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bauldry, William C

    2011-01-01

    An accessible introduction to real analysis and its connection to elementary calculus Bridging the gap between the development and history of real analysis, Introduction to Real Analysis: An Educational Approach presents a comprehensive introduction to real analysis while also offering a survey of the field. With its balance of historical background, key calculus methods, and hands-on applications, this book provides readers with a solid foundation and fundamental understanding of real analysis. The book begins with an outline of basic calculus, including a close examination of problems illust

  3. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the relative efficacy and safety of treatment regimens for HIV-associated cerebral toxoplasmosis: is trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole a real option?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, A V; Thota, P; Pellegrino, D; Pasupuleti, V; Benites-Zapata, V A; Deshpande, A; Penalva de Oliveira, A C; Vidal, J E

    2017-02-01

    The objective of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature to evaluate the efficacy and safety of therapies for cerebral toxoplasmosis in HIV-infected adults. The pyrimethamine plus sulfadiazine (P-S) combination is considered the mainstay therapy for cerebral toxoplasmosis and pyrimethamine plus clindamycin (P-C) is the most common alternative treatment. Although trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) has potential advantages, its use is infrequent. We searched PubMed and four other databases to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies. Two independent reviewers searched the databases, identified studies and extracted data. Risk ratios (RRs) were pooled across studies using random-effects models. Nine studies were included (five RCTs, three retrospective cohort studies and one prospective cohort study). In comparison to P-S, treatment with P-C or TMP-SMX was associated with similar rates of partial or complete clinical response [P-C: RR 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-1.08; TMP-SMX: RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.78-1.21], radiological response (P-C: RR 0.92; 95% CI 0.82-1.03), skin rash (P-C: RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.56-1.17; TMP-SMX: RR 0.17; 95% CI 0.02-1.29), gastrointestinal impairment (P-C: RR 5.16; 95% CI 0.66-40.11), and drug discontinuation because of adverse events (P-C: RR 0.32; 95% CI 0.07-1.47). Liver impairment was more frequent with P-S than P-C (P-C vs. P-S: RR 0.48; 95% CI 0.24-0.97). The current evidence fails to identify a superior regimen in terms of relative efficacy or safety for the treatment of HIV-associated cerebral toxoplasmosis. Use of TMP-SMX as preferred treatment may be consistent with the available evidence and other real-world considerations. Larger comparative studies are needed. © 2016 British HIV Association.

  4. Design Thinking and the Development of Real Options for Decision-Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-16

    the given circumstances. This essay proposes integrating elements of design thinking into the Mission Analysis and COA Development steps of the JOPP...briefly to show how design thinking can be integrated into the planning process and how continuing that line of thinking into the COA Development step is...a natural and necessary extension to develop options. Finally, the essay will show how design thinking informs decision-makers of the competing

  5. Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The amount of cash a firm should maintain is an old problem tackled by finance literature. The recent advances in finance, mainly in the derivatives area, has opened the opportunity to revisit this subject. Cossin and Hricko (2004 studied the benefits of cash holdings using the Real Options approach. We follow their ideas extending the problem to a specific commodity producer firm in an emerging economy. We evaluate the benefits considering that raising capital takes time (timing benefit and also the benefit of avoiding the issue of securities at unfavorable moments (underpricing benefit. We use numerical procedures to solve the problem. Despite the fact that the results are not totally intuitive, we verify that the timing benefit is much more relevant than that of avoiding the underpricing benefit and that firms in emerging economies have greater advantage holding cash than those in developed economies. There is empirical evidence of this last result in the literature.

  6. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  7. Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuland, Marc; Whittington, Dale

    2014-03-01

    This article presents a methodology for planning new water resources infrastructure investments and operating strategies in a world of climate change uncertainty. It combines a real options (e.g., options to defer, expand, contract, abandon, switch use, or otherwise alter a capital investment) approach with principles drawn from robust decision-making (RDM). RDM comprises a class of methods that are used to identify investment strategies that perform relatively well, compared to the alternatives, across a wide range of plausible future scenarios. Our proposed framework relies on a simulation model that includes linkages between climate change and system hydrology, combined with sensitivity analyses that explore how economic outcomes of investments in new dams vary with forecasts of changing runoff and other uncertainties. To demonstrate the framework, we consider the case of new multipurpose dams along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. We model flexibility in design and operating decisions—the selection, sizing, and sequencing of new dams, and reservoir operating rules. Results show that there is no single investment plan that performs best across a range of plausible future runoff conditions. The decision-analytic framework is then used to identify dam configurations that are both robust to poor outcomes and sufficiently flexible to capture high upside benefits if favorable future climate and hydrological conditions should arise. The approach could be extended to explore design and operating features of development and adaptation projects other than dams.

  8. NANA Strategic Energy Plan & Energy Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jay Hermanson; Brian Yanity

    2008-12-31

    Biomass Feasibility analysis in the upper Kobuk; • Run of the river hydroelectric development for the Upper Kobuk; • Solar photovoltaic (PV) power demonstration projects for Noatak, Ambler, Selawik, Kiana, and Noorvik; • Heat Recovery for several communities; In September 2008, the NRC team participated at the Alaska Rural Energy Conference in Girdwood, Alaska In November 2008, the NRC team gave a presentation on the NANA regional energy plans at a DOE Tribal Energy Program conference in Denver, Colorado. In January 2009, the final SEP report was submitted to NRC.

  9. Used fuel rail shock and vibration testing options analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Best, Ralph E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Klymyshyn, Nicholas A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jensen, Philip J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Maheras, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-09-25

    The objective of the rail shock and vibration tests is to complete the framework needed to quantify loads of fuel assembly components that are necessary to guide materials research and establish a technical basis for review organizations such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A significant body of experimental and numerical modeling data exists to quantify loads and failure limits applicable to normal conditions of transport (NCT) rail transport, but the data are based on assumptions that can only be verified through experimental testing. The test options presented in this report represent possible paths for acquiring the data that are needed to confirm the assumptions of previous work, validate modeling methods that will be needed for evaluating transported fuel on a case-by-case basis, and inform material test campaigns on the anticipated range of fuel loading. The ultimate goal of this testing is to close all of the existing knowledge gaps related to the loading of used fuel under NCT conditions and inform the experiments and analysis program on specific endpoints for their research. The options include tests that would use an actual railcar, surrogate assemblies, and real or simulated rail transportation casks. The railcar carrying the cradle, cask, and surrogate fuel assembly payload would be moved in a train operating over rail track modified or selected to impart shock and vibration forces that occur during normal rail transportation. Computer modeling would be used to help design surrogates that may be needed for a rail cask, a cask’s internal basket, and a transport cradle. The objective of the design of surrogate components would be to provide a test platform that effectively simulates responses to rail shock and vibration loads that would be exhibited by state-of-the-art rail cask, basket, and/or cradle structures. The computer models would also be used to help determine the placement of instrumentation (accelerometers and strain gauges

  10. Supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mulan Xiaofeng

    My dissertation concentrates on several aspects of supply chain management and economic valuation of real options in the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, including gas pipeline transportations, ocean LNG shipping logistics, and downstream storage. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the natural gas and LNG industries, and the topics studied in this thesis. Chapter 2 studies how to value U.S. natural gas pipeline network transport contracts as real options. It is common for natural gas shippers to value and manage contracts by simple adaptations of financial spread option formulas that do not fully account for the implications of the capacity limits and the network structure that distinguish these contracts. In contrast, we show that these operational features can be fully captured and integrated with financial considerations in a fairly easy and managerially significant manner by a model that combines linear programming and simulation. We derive pathwise estimators for the so called deltas and structurally characterize them. We interpret them in a novel fashion as discounted expectations, under a specific weighing distribution, of the amounts of natural gas to be procured/marketed when optimally using pipeline capacity. Based on the actual prices of traded natural gas futures and basis swaps, we show that an enhanced version of the common approach employed in practice can significantly underestimate the true value of natural gas pipeline network capacity. Our model also exhibits promising financial (delta) hedging performance. Thus, this model emerges as an easy to use and useful tool that natural gas shippers can employ to support their valuation and delta hedging decisions concerning natural gas pipeline network transport capacity contracts. Moreover, the insights that follow from our data analysis have broader significance and implications in terms of the management of real options beyond our specific application. Motivated by current developments

  11. Evaluation of dairy effluent management options using multiple criteria analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajkowicz, Stefan A; Wheeler, Sarah A

    2008-04-01

    This article describes how options for managing dairy effluent on the Lower Murray River in South Australia were evaluated using multiple criteria analysis (MCA). Multiple criteria analysis is a framework for combining multiple environmental, social, and economic objectives in policy decisions. At the time of the study, dairy irrigation in the region was based on flood irrigation which involved returning effluent to the river. The returned water contained nutrients, salts, and microbial contaminants leading to environmental, human health, and tourism impacts. In this study MCA was used to evaluate 11 options against 6 criteria for managing dairy effluent problems. Of the 11 options, the MCA model selected partial rehabilitation of dairy paddocks with the conversion of remaining land to other agriculture. Soon after, the South Australian Government adopted this course of action and is now providing incentives for dairy farmers in the region to upgrade irrigation infrastructure and/or enter alternative industries.

  12. Evaluation of Dairy Effluent Management Options Using Multiple Criteria Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajkowicz, Stefan A.; Wheeler, Sarah A.

    2008-04-01

    This article describes how options for managing dairy effluent on the Lower Murray River in South Australia were evaluated using multiple criteria analysis (MCA). Multiple criteria analysis is a framework for combining multiple environmental, social, and economic objectives in policy decisions. At the time of the study, dairy irrigation in the region was based on flood irrigation which involved returning effluent to the river. The returned water contained nutrients, salts, and microbial contaminants leading to environmental, human health, and tourism impacts. In this study MCA was used to evaluate 11 options against 6 criteria for managing dairy effluent problems. Of the 11 options, the MCA model selected partial rehabilitation of dairy paddocks with the conversion of remaining land to other agriculture. Soon after, the South Australian Government adopted this course of action and is now providing incentives for dairy farmers in the region to upgrade irrigation infrastructure and/or enter alternative industries.

  13. Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool, Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Ruiz, F.; Solana, P. [Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Dep. de Ingenieria de Organizacion, Administracion de Empresas y Estadistica, C/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2, 28006-Madrid (Spain)

    2012-07-01

    According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real option theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)

  14. Land tenure reforms and land conservation investments in China – what does real option value theory tell us?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ma Xian lei, Xianlei; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Heerink, N.; Qu, F.

    2013-01-01

    Land conservation investments can make an important contribution to avoidance and mitigation of land degradation. Lack of tenure security and land transferability may, however, limit the extent to which farmers undertake such investments. Using real option value theory, this paper investigates the

  15. Error Analysis for Fourier Methods for Option Pricing

    KAUST Repository

    Häppölä, Juho

    2016-01-06

    We provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options when the underlying follows an exponential Levy dynamic. The price of the option is described by a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE). Applying a Fourier transformation to the PIDE yields an ordinary differential equation that can be solved analytically in terms of the characteristic exponent of the Levy process. Then, a numerical inverse Fourier transform allows us to obtain the option price. We present a novel bound for the error and use this bound to set the parameters for the numerical method. We analyze the properties of the bound for a dissipative and pure-jump example. The bound presented is independent of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset prices. The error bound can be decomposed into a product of terms resulting from the dynamics and the option payoff, respectively. The analysis is supplemented by numerical examples that demonstrate results comparable to and superior to the existing literature.

  16. Analysis of federal options to support photovoltaic industry growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennington, G.; Cherdak, A.; Williams, F.

    1979-05-01

    This report presents the methodology and results of an analysis to determine the impact and leverage of federal options for supporting the growth of the photovoltaic industry. Results were projected for combinations of the following: an aggressive federal research and development program, achievement of a technological breakthrough, and immediate or breakthrough-dependent incentives including direct price reductions, keyed-to-breakeven subsidies, and federal puchases. The modeling methodology and market assumptions were also tested to determine their effect on analysis results.

  17. Real analysis modern techniques and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Folland, Gerald B

    1999-01-01

    An in-depth look at real analysis and its applications-now expanded and revised.This new edition of the widely used analysis book continues to cover real analysis in greater detail and at a more advanced level than most books on the subject. Encompassing several subjects that underlie much of modern analysis, the book focuses on measure and integration theory, point set topology, and the basics of functional analysis. It illustrates the use of the general theories and introduces readers to other branches of analysis such as Fourier analysis, distribution theory, and probability theory.This edi

  18. Set theoretical aspects of real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kharazishvili, Alexander B

    2014-01-01

    This book addresses a number of questions in real analysis and classical measure theory that are of a set-theoretic flavor. Accessible to graduate students, the beginning of the book presents introductory topics on real analysis and Lebesque measure theory. These topics highlight the boundary between fundamental concepts of measurability and non-measurability for point sets and functions. The remainder of the book deals with more specialized material on set-theoretical real analysis. Problems are included at the end of each chapter.

  19. Real-time flutter analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, R.; Gupta, N.

    1984-01-01

    The important algorithm issues necessary to achieve a real time flutter monitoring system; namely, the guidelines for choosing appropriate model forms, reduction of the parameter convergence transient, handling multiple modes, the effect of over parameterization, and estimate accuracy predictions, both online and for experiment design are addressed. An approach for efficiently computing continuous-time flutter parameter Cramer-Rao estimate error bounds were developed. This enables a convincing comparison of theoretical and simulation results, as well as offline studies in preparation for a flight test. Theoretical predictions, simulation and flight test results from the NASA Drones for Aerodynamic and Structural Test (DAST) Program are compared.

  20. ACCOUNTING FOR OPTIONS AND ANALYSIS OF USE OF OPTION COMBINATION STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Derun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with problems of accounting for options in Ukraine, namely: value expression of initial cost of options, their revaluation, accounting of premiums, financial assets and financial liabilities and variation margin. The paper offers ways of solution of these problems which based on harmonization with IAS 32, IAS 39, IFRS 7 and IFRS 9. The study considers option combination strategies (straddle, strangle, strap, strip and approaches of identification of possible financial results for investors which use these strategies. Examples of possible financial results are provided for buyers and sellers of options which use option combination strategies.

  1. Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuss, Sabine [International Institute of Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Szolgayova, Jana [International Institute of Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria); Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University, Bratislava (Slovakia)

    2010-09-15

    Electricity generation is an important source of total CO{sub 2} emissions, which in turn have been found to relate to an acceleration of global warming. Given that many OECD countries have to replace substantial portions of their electricity-generating capacity over the next 10-20 years, investment decisions today will determine the CO{sub 2}-intensity of the future energy mix. But by what type of power plants will old (mostly fossil-fuel-fired) capacity be replaced? Given that modern, less carbon-intensive technologies are still expensive but can be expected to undergo improvements due to technical change in the near future, they may become more attractive, especially if fossil fuel price volatility makes traditional technologies more risky. At the same time, technological progress is an inherently uncertain process itself. In this paper, we use a real options model with stochastic technical change and stochastic fossil fuel prices in order to investigate their impact on replacement investment decisions in the electricity sector. We find that the uncertainty associated with the technological progress of renewable energy technologies leads to a postponement of investment. Even the simultaneous inclusion of stochastic fossil fuel prices in the same model does not make renewable energy competitive compared to fossil-fuel-fired technology in the short run based on the data used. This implies that policymakers have to intervene if renewable energy is supposed to get diffused more quickly. Otherwise, old fossil-fuel-fired equipment will be refurbished or replaced by fossil-fuel-fired capacity again, which enforces the lock-in of the current system into unsustainable electricity generation. (author)

  2. Towards a decision support tool for real estate management in the health sector using real options and scenario planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – Uncertainties affecting health organizations inevitably influence real estate decisions since real estate is required to facilitate the primary health process. The purpose of this study is to develop a decision support tool that supports health organisations in defining what flexibility

  3. Net energy analysis: Powerful tool for selecting electric power options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, S.

    A number of net energy analysis studies have been conducted in recent years for electric power production from coal, oil and uranium fuels; synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale; and heat and electric power from solar energy. This technique is an excellent indicator of investment costs, environmental impact and potential economic competitiveness of alternative electric power systems for energy planners from the Eastern European countries considering future options. Energy conservation is also important to energy planners and the net energy analysis technique is an excellent accounting system on the extent of energy resource conservation. The author proposes to discuss the technique and to present the results of his studies and others in the field. The information supplied to the attendees will serve as a powerful tool to the energy planners considering their electric power options in the future.

  4. Net energy analysis - powerful tool for selecting elective power options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baron, S. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

    1995-12-01

    A number of net energy analysis studies have been conducted in recent years for electric power production from coal, oil and uranium fuels; synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale; and heat and electric power from solar energy. This technique is an excellent indicator of investment costs, environmental impact and potential economic competitiveness of alternative electric power systems for energy planners from the Eastern European countries considering future options. Energy conservation is also important to energy planners and the net energy analysis technique is an excellent accounting system on the extent of energy resource conservation. The author proposes to discuss the technique and to present the results of his studies and others in the field. The information supplied to the attendees will serve as a powerful tool to the energy planners considering their electric power options in the future.

  5. “Let’s Wait and See!” – The Real Option to Switch as a New Element of Customer Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Henseler, Jörg; Roemer, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    We suggest that a customer’s option to switch suppliers, and to wait and see before switching, adds to customer value in uncertain markets, and affects the customer’s switching behavior. We use a real options model to examine the value of this option and conduct sensitivity analyses based on data

  6. "Real" and Apparent Optionality in Second Language Grammars: Finiteness and Pronouns in Null Operator Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, Teresa; Tsimpli, Ianthi-Maria

    2005-01-01

    The existence of optionality in acquisitional data presents a problem to the view that developing grammars do not include more than one grammatical system at any stage. In this article data from Greek and Spanish, on the one hand, and English, on the other, constitute the background for the discussion of the existence of "true" optionality in…

  7. An analysis of international nuclear fuel supply options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, J'tia Patrice

    As the global demand for energy grows, many nations are considering developing or increasing nuclear capacity as a viable, long-term power source. To assess the possible expansion of nuclear power and the intricate relationships---which cover the range of economics, security, and material supply and demand---between established and aspirant nuclear generating entities requires models and system analysis tools that integrate all aspects of the nuclear enterprise. Computational tools and methods now exist across diverse research areas, such as operations research and nuclear engineering, to develop such a tool. This dissertation aims to develop methodologies and employ and expand on existing sources to develop a multipurpose tool to analyze international nuclear fuel supply options. The dissertation is comprised of two distinct components: the development of the Material, Economics, and Proliferation Assessment Tool (MEPAT), and analysis of fuel cycle scenarios using the tool. Development of MEPAT is aimed for unrestricted distribution and therefore uses publicly available and open-source codes in its development when possible. MEPAT is built using the Powersim Studio platform that is widely used in systems analysis. MEPAT development is divided into three modules focusing on: material movement; nonproliferation; and economics. The material movement module tracks material quantity in each process of the fuel cycle and in each nuclear program with respect to ownership, location and composition. The material movement module builds on techniques employed by fuel cycle models such as the Verifiable Fuel Cycle Simulation (VISION) code developed at the Idaho National Laboratory under the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI) for the analysis of domestic fuel cycle. Material movement parameters such as lending and reactor preference, as well as fuel cycle parameters such as process times and material factors are user-specified through a Microsoft Excel(c) data spreadsheet

  8. 1992 Columbia River Salmon Flow Measures Options Analysis/EIS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-01-01

    This Options Analysis/Environmental Impact Statement (OA/EIS) identifies, presents effects of, and evaluates the potential options for changing instream flow levels in efforts to increase salmon populations in the lower Columbia and Snake rivers. The potential actions would be implemented during 1992 to benefit juvenile and adult salmon during migration through eight run-of-river reservoirs. The Corps of Engineers (Corps) prepared this document in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FSWS) is a participating agency. The text and appendices of the document describe the characteristics of 10 Federal projects and one private water development project in the Columbia River drainage basin. Present and potential operation of these projects and their effects on the salmon that spawn and rear in the Columbia and Snake River System are presented. The life history, status, and response of Pacific salmon to current environmental conditions are described.

  9. Measuring the Return on Investment and Real Option Value of Weather Sensor Bundles for Air Force Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    measured in terms agriculture yields and/or frost damage mitigation efforts. Beckwith, Teibel, Bowen (2004) measured the value of a sensor network...qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= tÉÇåÉëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=f= = Measuring the Return on Investment and Real Option Value of Weather Sensor ...Maryland Peter Sandborn, Professor, University of Maryland Measuring the Return on Investment and Real Option Value of Weather Sensor Bundles for

  10. A real-life example of choosing an inherently safer process option.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Study, Karen

    2007-04-11

    While choosing an inherently safer alternative may seem straightforward, sometimes what seems to be the most obvious alternative may not provide the best risk reduction. The process designer must maintain a broad perspective to be able to recognize all potential hazards when evaluating design options. All aspects of operation such as start-up, shut-down, utility failure, as well as normal operation should be considered. Choosing the inherently safer option is best accomplished early in the option selection phase of a project; however, recycle back to the option selection phase may be needed if an option is not thoroughly evaluated early in the process. In this paper, a project to supply ammonia to a catalytic reactor will be reviewed. During the course of the project, an "inherently safer" alternative was selected and later discarded due to issues uncovered during the detail design phase. The final option chosen will be compared to (1) the original design and (2) the initial "inherently safer" alternative. The final option was inherently safer than both the original design and the initial "inherently safer" alternative even though the design team initially believed that it would not be.

  11. Long expansion planning of electrical power availability in Brazil under the real options theoretical approach; Planejamento de longo prazo da expansao da oferta de energia eletrica no Brasil sob uma perspectiva da teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marreco, Juliana de Moraes

    2007-05-15

    This thesis considers uncertainty on the long term generation expansion planning in the Brazilian Electric System, under a Real Options Approach . First, Real Options Theory is used to demonstrate the importance of thermo power plants insertion in Brazil, through a flexibility valuation on hydrothermal system. This is the first objective of this thesis. In the second part a Real Options Model is proposed to support long term expansion studies, based in a levelized costs analysis. The adequacy of proposed models to real problem is illustrated by a case study of the Brazilian Power System. The results show the importance of the energetic matrix diversification on the Long Term Planning. In the expansion model proposed, results are in favor of higher participation of biomass, nuclear power and coal in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. (author)

  12. MATHEMATICAL JUSTIFICATION OF RESERACH METODOLOGY OF FUZZY SET PROPERTIES OF THE GESKE MODEL AND ITS MODIFICAIONS TO REAL OPTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to adapt methods of fuzzy sets to analyze the effectiveness of multistage investment projects. The problem solved by the study is as follows. Some innovative projects are characterized by the lack of profitability in the early stages of implementation and high risk associated with high uncertainty of assessment of expected future cash flows generated by the project. In this situation, the use of standard methods of analysis of economic efficiency of investment projects in high-tech industries, does not provide a comprehensive assessment of the appropriateness of investing, as well as to quantify the accuracy of the dynamics of the projected figures. All this requires the development of theory and methods of analysis of economic efficiency of innovation. Application of real options, as well as the fuzzy sets is, in our view, the direction of improving these methods. The fuzzy random pairs approach is developed in order to study fuzzy set properties of random pointwise set mappings. The articles proposes generalization of the fuzzy random pairs approach for research of stochastic processes. The generalization is initiated by an approach to exploration of uncertainty in research project supported with an RFBR grant no. 15-06-06914, which is based on application of the Geske model modification. Mathematical description of the generalization is carried out for an example of a real venture-backed investment project aimed at organization of methyl chloride to ethylene processing. The generalization essence is in the following: 1 time variable t in a random process ξ ( t is replaced with a random value u , distributed uniformly within a segment [0; T ], which turns the process ξ ( t into a bidimensional random value V = u ,ξ( 0;( u , defined on [ T ]× R ; 2 the random value V value is translated into a random pointwise set mapping using the interval translation; 3 in order to translate the random pointwise set mapping

  13. A Real Options Approach to Valuing the Risk Transfer in a Multi-Year Procurement Contract

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    to the option holder when it is exercised before the expiry and the exercise price is greater than the market or spot price of the underlying asset...or prior to the expiry . Once exercised, options are zero-sum contracts: the writer “loses” and the holder gains or vice versa. If the option expires...and X are Company A’s stock spot price at valuation and strike (at expiry T) per share, respectively. N(d1) and N(d2) are the cumulative normal

  14. Real analysis a constructive approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bridger, Mark

    2012-01-01

    A unique approach to analysis that lets you apply mathematics across a range of subjects This innovative text sets forth a thoroughly rigorous modern account of the theoretical underpinnings of calculus: continuity, differentiability, and convergence. Using a constructive approach, every proof of every result is direct and ultimately computationally verifiable. In particular, existence is never established by showing that the assumption of non-existence leads to a contradiction. The ultimate consequence of this method is that it makes sense-not just to math majors but also to students from a

  15. Analysis of real-time vibration data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, E.

    2005-01-01

    In recent years, a few structures have been instrumented to provide continuous vibration data in real time, recording not only large-amplitude motions generated by extreme loads, but also small-amplitude motions generated by ambient loads. The main objective in continuous recording is to track any changes in structural characteristics, and to detect damage after an extreme event, such as an earthquake or explosion. The Fourier-based spectral analysis methods have been the primary tool to analyze vibration data from structures. In general, such methods do not work well for real-time data, because real-time data are mainly composed of ambient vibrations with very low amplitudes and signal-to-noise ratios. The long duration, linearity, and the stationarity of ambient data, however, allow us to utilize statistical signal processing tools, which can compensate for the adverse effects of low amplitudes and high noise. The analysis of real-time data requires tools and techniques that can be applied in real-time; i.e., data are processed and analyzed while being acquired. This paper presents some of the basic tools and techniques for processing and analyzing real-time vibration data. The topics discussed include utilization of running time windows, tracking mean and mean-square values, filtering, system identification, and damage detection.

  16. Dynamic Reservoir Management with Real Options Risk Hedging as a Robust Adaptation to Nonstationary Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinschneider, S.

    2011-12-01

    The implications of climate change and the potential nonstationarity of the hydrologic record necessitate innovative approaches to water management. This study presents a novel adaptation strategy for water reservoir management under nonstationary hydrologic conditions. Seasonal hydrologic forecasts and an option instrument allow reservoir operations that dynamically adapt to an evolving hydrologic record. System operating policies are conditioned on seasonal hydrologic forecasts to account for year-to-year variability and climate change and option instruments are exercised to hedge against the risk associated with operational forecasts and unexpected climate outcomes. This scheme is implemented over an ensemble of climate futures based on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Two alternative management strategies are considered, one in which system operations are optimized for the GCM-based ensemble mean projection of the future and a baseline strategy in which assumptions of stationarity are maintained and operations are left unchanged from historic norms. The approach is evaluated for a water supply/hydropower facility on the Westfield River in the Northeast United States. Results suggest that seasonal hydrologic forecasts are a promising adaptation to nonstationary hydrology, even without the support of a risk hedging option. Surprisingly, the option approach enabled even a stationary assumption to perform well in the future, suggesting that option instruments alone can act as a robust adaptation mechanism.

  17. EL MÉTODO DE DIFERENCIAS FINITAS EN EVALUACIÓN DE OPCIONES REALES THE FINITE DIFFERENCE METHOD IN REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastián Otero G

    2008-06-01

    representa su capacidad de incorporar en el análisis el valor de la flexibilidad operativa del proyecto.In the past few years, real options, an extension of financial derivatives, have arisen as an alternative to traditional valuation methods, such as net present value (NPV. The key attribute of real options is that they take into consideration the uncertainty and flexibility involved in investment valuation. This article provides an overview of the finite difference method, by presenting an application to the real options valuation. The empirical section of the article, which makes use of the implicit finite difference method (IFD, analyzes the options of waiting, abandoning, contracting, expanding and switching, by valuing all the options involved and their possible combinations. The results are compared with those of the NPV method and the binomial tree with a logarithmic transformation (BTLT. Both methods (IFD and BTLT yield similar results, being both greater than those provided by the NPV. This difference comes to no surprise as it represents the value of the flexibility associated to an investment opportunity.

  18. Real options in project coalitions in Dutch health care: two case studies of construction projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Reedt Dortland, Maartje; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainties affecting health organizations inevitably influence real estate decisions since real estate is required to facilitate the primary process in cure and care. Decisions have to be taken when there is little knowledge about the future. Therefore, flexibility is needed in the process of

  19. Participatory groundwater management in Jordan: Development and analysis of options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chebaane, Mohamed; El-Naser, Hazim; Fitch, Jim; Hijazi, Amal; Jabbarin, Amer

    Groundwater over-exploitation has been on the rise in Jordan. Competing demands have grown in the face of perennial water shortages, a situation which has been exacerbated by drought conditions in the past decade. This paper reports findings of a project in which management options to address over-exploitation were developed for one of Jordan's principal aquifer systems, the Amman-Zarqa Basin. Options for addressing the situation were developed through a participatory approach that involved government officials and various public and private sector interest groups. Particular efforts were made to involve well irrigators, who are likely to be heavily impacted by the changes required to reduce groundwater pumping to a sustainable level. With information obtained from a rapid appraisal survey as well as from interviews with farmers, community groups, government officials, and technical experts, an extensive set of options was identified for evaluation. Based on integrated hydrogeologic, social, and economic analysis, five complementary management options were recommended for implementation. These included the establishment of an Irrigation Advisory Service, buying out farm wells, placing firm limits on well ion and irrigated crop areas, exchanging treated wastewater for groundwater, and measures to increase the efficiency of municipal and industrial water use. Various combinations and levels of these options were grouped in scenarios, representing possible implementation strategies. The scenarios were designed to assist decision makers, well owners and other stakeholders in moving gradually towards a sustainable ion regime. Social and economic aspects of each option and scenario were analyzed and presented to stakeholders, together with a of legal, institutional and environmental ramifications. Combining scientific analysis with a participatory approach in the Amman Zarqa Basin groundwater management was devised as a prototype to be used in the management of other

  20. ARC-VM: An architecture real options complexity-based valuation methodology for military systems-of-systems acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domercant, Jean Charles

    The combination of today's national security environment and mandated acquisition policies makes it necessary for military systems to interoperate with each other to greater degrees. This growing interdependency results in complex Systems-of-Systems (SoS) that only continue to grow in complexity to meet evolving capability needs. Thus, timely and affordable acquisition becomes more difficult, especially in the face of mounting budgetary pressures. To counter this, architecting principles must be applied to SoS design. The research objective is to develop an Architecture Real Options Complexity-Based Valuation Methodology (ARC-VM) suitable for acquisition-level decision making, where there is a stated desire for more informed tradeoffs between cost, schedule, and performance during the early phases of design. First, a framework is introduced to measure architecture complexity as it directly relates to military SoS. Development of the framework draws upon a diverse set of disciplines, including Complexity Science, software architecting, measurement theory, and utility theory. Next, a Real Options based valuation strategy is developed using techniques established for financial stock options that have recently been adapted for use in business and engineering decisions. The derived complexity measure provides architects with an objective measure of complexity that focuses on relevant complex system attributes. These attributes are related to the organization and distribution of SoS functionality and the sharing and processing of resources. The use of Real Options provides the necessary conceptual and visual framework to quantifiably and traceably combine measured architecture complexity, time-valued performance levels, as well as programmatic risks and uncertainties. An example suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability demonstrates the development and usefulness of the resulting architecture complexity & Real Options based valuation methodology. Different

  1. Executive Stock Options Compensation: An Empirical Analysis Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pothesizes that the equity held by ... and when firms show levels of risk. Additionally, results suggest a non-linear negative relationship between board size and stock options attribution. Keywords: Agency Theory; Incentives; Stock Options.

  2. Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerestecioğlu, Merih

    2016-09-01

    The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (i) development of a global risk matrix; (ii) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (iii) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (iv) reduction of the main risk elements; and (v) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (i) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ii) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (iii) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow. © The Author(s) 2016.

  3. An introduction to classical real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Stromberg, Karl R

    2015-01-01

    This classic book is a text for a standard introductory course in real analysis, covering sequences and series, limits and continuity, differentiation, elementary transcendental functions, integration, infinite series and products, and trigonometric series. The author has scrupulously avoided any presumption at all that the reader has any knowledge of mathematical concepts until they are formally presented in the book. One significant way in which this book differs from other texts at this level is that the integral which is first mentioned is the Lebesgue integral on the real line. There are

  4. Incorporation of Outcome-Based Contract Requirements in a Real Options Approach for Maintenance Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    focus on novel onshore/offshore and small/large scale wind turbine designs for expanding their operational range and increasing their efficiency at...of maintenance options created by the implementation of PHM in wind turbines . When an RUL is predicted for a subsystem, there are multiple choices...The section titled Example— Wind Turbine With an Outcome-Based Contract presents a case study for a PHM enabled wind turbine with and without an

  5. Systems analysis of decontamination options for civilian vehicles.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foltz, Greg W.; Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2010-11-01

    The objective of this project, which was supported by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) Chemical and Biological Division (CBD), was to investigate options for the decontamination of the exteriors and interiors of vehicles in the civilian setting in order to restore those vehicles to normal use following the release of a highly toxic chemical. The decontamination of vehicles is especially challenging because they often contain sensitive electronic equipment, multiple materials some of which strongly adsorb chemical agents, and in the case of aircraft, have very rigid material compatibility requirements (i.e., they cannot be exposed to reagents that may cause even minor corrosion). A systems analysis approach was taken examine existing and future civilian vehicle decontamination capabilities.

  6. Real-time analysis of telemetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Simon A.; Laffey, Thomas J.; Schmidt, James L.; Read, Jackson Y.; Dunham, Larry L.

    1987-01-01

    This paper descibes a knowledge-based system for performing real-time monitoring and analysis of telemetry data from the NASA Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In order to handle asynchronous inputs and perform in real time the system consists of three or more separate processes, which run concurrently and communicate via a message passing scheme. The data management process gathers, compresses, and scales the incoming telemetry data befoe sending it to the other tasks. The inferencing process uses the incoming data to perform a real-time analysis of the state and health of the Space Telescope. The I/O process receives telemetry monitors from the data management process, updates its graphical displays in real time, and acts as the interface to the console operator. The three processes may run on the same or different computers. This system is currently under development and is being used to monitor testcases produced by the Bass Telemetry System in the Hardware/Software Integration Facility at Lockheed Missile and Space Co. in Sunnyvale, California.

  7. Real time analysis of voiced sounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, J. P. (Inventor)

    1976-01-01

    A power spectrum analysis of the harmonic content of a voiced sound signal is conducted in real time by phase-lock-loop tracking of the fundamental frequency, (f sub 0) of the signal and successive harmonics (h sub 1 through h sub n) of the fundamental frequency. The analysis also includes measuring the quadrature power and phase of each frequency tracked, differentiating the power measurements of the harmonics in adjacent pairs, and analyzing successive differentials to determine peak power points in the power spectrum for display or use in analysis of voiced sound, such as for voice recognition.

  8. The RealGas and RealGasH2O options of the TOUGH+ code for the simulation of coupled fluid and heat flow in tight/shale gas systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas. The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and sh...

  9. Low cost real time interactive analysis system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stetina, F.

    1988-01-01

    Efforts continue to develop a low cost real time interactive analysis system for the reception of satellite data. A multi-purpose ingest hardware software frame formatter was demonstrated for GOES and TIROS data and work is proceeding on extending the capability to receive GMS data. A similar system was proposed as an archival and analysis system for use with INSAT data and studies are underway to modify the system to receive the planned SeaWiFS (ocean color) data. This system was proposed as the core of a number of international programs in support of U.S. AID activities. Systems delivered or nearing final testing are listed.

  10. Spaces an introduction to real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Lindstrøm, Tom L

    2017-01-01

    Spaces is a modern introduction to real analysis at the advanced undergraduate level. It is forward-looking in the sense that it first and foremost aims to provide students with the concepts and techniques they need in order to follow more advanced courses in mathematical analysis and neighboring fields. The only prerequisites are a solid understanding of calculus and linear algebra. Two introductory chapters will help students with the transition from computation-based calculus to theory-based analysis. The main topics covered are metric spaces, spaces of continuous functions, normed spaces, differentiation in normed spaces, measure and integration theory, and Fourier series. Although some of the topics are more advanced than what is usually found in books of this level, care is taken to present the material in a way that is suitable for the intended audience: concepts are carefully introduced and motivated, and proofs are presented in full detail. Applications to differential equations and Fourier analysis ...

  11. A Cost Analysis of Kidney Replacement Therapy Options in Palestine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Younis Ph.D.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study provides a cost analysis of kidney replacement therapy options in Palestine. It informs evidence-based resource allocation decisions for government-funded kidney disease services where transplant donors are limited, and some of the common modalities, i.e., peritoneal dialysis (PD and home hemodialysis (HD, are not widely available due to shortages of qualified staff, specialists, and centers to follow the patient cases, provide training, make home visits, or provide educational programs for patients. The average cost of kidney transplant was US$16 277 for the first year; the estimated cost of HD per patient averaged US$16 085 per year—nearly as much as a transplant. Consistent with prior literature and experience, while live, related kidney donors are scarce, we found that kidney transplant was more adequate and less expensive than HD. These results have direct resource allocation implications for government-funded kidney disease services under Palestinian Ministry of Health. Our findings strongly suggest that investing in sufficient qualified staff, equipment, and clinical infrastructure to replace HD services with transplantation whenever medically indicated and suitable kidney donors are available, as well as deploying PD programs and Home HD programs, will result in major overall cost savings. Our results provide a better understanding of the costs of kidney disease and will help to inform Ministry of Health and related policy makers as they develop short- and long-term strategies for the population, in terms of both cost savings and enhanced quality of life.

  12. Options for quantitative assessment of types of commercial real estate leases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ginevičius Tomas

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Facing increasing business volumes and internationalisation, office lease issue is becoming increasingly relevant to business enterprises. They become an integral part of the business which determines the outcome of commercial activities. Current assessment methodologies for types of office leases are flawed because they lack comprehensiveness and they are not linked to the objective of a lease, that is improvement of business deliverables. The methods for quantitative assessment of lease types are flawed. The objective of this article is developing a hierarchical system of indicators in connection with commercial real estate (office leases adapted for quantitative assessment using multi-criteria methods. As a result of the research, it has been obtained that such system contains three categories: economic, premises and environmental. 12 indicators fall into the first one, 24 - into the second and 16 - into the third one.

  13. The real option to fuel switch in the presence of expected windfall profits under the EU Emission Trading Scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luca Taschini; Simon Urech [London School of Economics, London (United Kingdom). Grantham Research Institute

    2010-07-01

    This paper develops a simple model to evaluate the value and the activation frequencies of a generation system consisting of coal-fired and a gas-fired power plants using a real options approach, and the notions of clean-spark and clean-dark spreads. Under a cap-and-trade scheme, the use of emission permits represents an opportunity cost. In the energy industry different generation technologies produce different levels of CO{sub 2} emissions and, therefore, different opportunity costs. Addressing the question of how expected windfall profits affect the profitability of a generation plant and its activation frequencies, the paper shows that conventional findings are reversed. When the opportunity cost is internalized, the rate of activation of the gas plant decreases while that of the coal plant increases.

  14. Problems in real and functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Torchinsky, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    It is generally believed that solving problems is the most important part of the learning process in mathematics because it forces students to truly understand the definitions, comb through the theorems and proofs, and think at length about the mathematics. The purpose of this book is to complement the existing literature in introductory real and functional analysis at the graduate level with a variety of conceptual problems (1,457 in total), ranging from easily accessible to thought provoking, mixing the practical and the theoretical aspects of the subject. Problems are grouped into ten chapters covering the main topics usually taught in courses on real and functional analysis. Each of these chapters opens with a brief reader's guide stating the needed definitions and basic results in the area and closes with a short description of the problems. The Problem chapters are accompanied by Solution chapters, which include solutions to two-thirds of the problems. Students can expect the solutions to be written in ...

  15. A cost analysis of kidney replacement therapy options in Palestine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younis, Mustafa; Jabr, Samer; Al-Khatib, Abdallah; Forgione, Dana; Hartmann, Michael; Kisa, Adnan

    2015-01-01

    This study provides a cost analysis of kidney replacement therapy options in Palestine. It informs evidence-based resource allocation decisions for government-funded kidney disease services where transplant donors are limited, and some of the common modalities, i.e., peritoneal dialysis (PD) and home hemodialysis (HD), are not widely available due to shortages of qualified staff, specialists, and centers to follow the patient cases, provide training, make home visits, or provide educational programs for patients. The average cost of kidney transplant was US$16,277 for the first year; the estimated cost of HD per patient averaged US$16,085 per year--nearly as much as a transplant. Consistent with prior literature and experience, while live, related kidney donors are scarce, we found that kidney transplant was more adequate and less expensive than HD. These results have direct resource allocation implications for government-funded kidney disease services under Palestinian Ministry of Health. Our findings strongly suggest that investing in sufficient qualified staff, equipment, and clinical infrastructure to replace HD services with transplantation whenever medically indicated and suitable kidney donors are available, as well as deploying PD programs and Home HD programs, will result in major overall cost savings. Our results provide a better understanding of the costs of kidney disease and will help to inform Ministry of Health and related policy makers as they develop short- and long-term strategies for the population, in terms of both cost savings and enhanced quality of life. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Real option valuation of a decremental regulation service provided by electricity storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Dávid Zoltán; Martyr, Randall

    2017-08-13

    This paper is a quantitative study of a reserve contract for real-time balancing of a power system. Under this contract, the owner of a storage device, such as a battery, helps smooth fluctuations in electricity demand and supply by using the device to increase electricity consumption. The battery owner must be able to provide immediate physical cover, and should therefore have sufficient storage available in the battery before entering the contract. Accordingly, the following problem can be formulated for the battery owner: determine the optimal time to enter the contract and, if necessary, the optimal time to discharge electricity before entering the contract. This problem is formulated as one of optimal stopping, and is solved explicitly in terms of the model parameters and instantaneous values of the power system imbalance. The optimal operational strategies thus obtained ensure that the battery owner has positive expected economic profit from the contract. Furthermore, they provide explicit conditions under which the optimal discharge time is consistent with the overall objective of power system balancing. This paper also carries out a preliminary investigation of the 'lifetime value' aggregated from an infinite sequence of these balancing reserve contracts. This lifetime value, which can be viewed as a single project valuation of the battery, is shown to be positive and bounded. Therefore, in the long run such reserve contracts can be beneficial to commercial operators of electricity storage, while reducing some of the financial and operational risks in power system balancing.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Using Real Options to Help Build the Business Case for CRM Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Maklan, Stan; Knox, Simon; Ryals, Lynette

    2005-01-01

    The long-term benefits of implementing a Customer Relationship Management programme are widely accepted as being: learning from customers, building customer retention, and reduced market uncertainty. Yet high rates of failure in CRM can originate right at the stage where the investment decisions are made. Traditional discounted cashflow analysis alone does not value or focus managerial attention upon the strategic long-term benefits of CRM. Through a simulated case study ana...

  18. Space station data system analysis/architecture study. Task 2: Options development DR-5. Volume 1: Technology options

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    The second task in the Space Station Data System (SSDS) Analysis/Architecture Study is the development of an information base that will support the conduct of trade studies and provide sufficient data to make key design/programmatic decisions. This volume identifies the preferred options in the technology category and characterizes these options with respect to performance attributes, constraints, cost, and risk. The technology category includes advanced materials, processes, and techniques that can be used to enhance the implementation of SSDS design structures. The specific areas discussed are mass storage, including space and round on-line storage and off-line storage; man/machine interface; data processing hardware, including flight computers and advanced/fault tolerant computer architectures; and software, including data compression algorithms, on-board high level languages, and software tools. Also discussed are artificial intelligence applications and hard-wire communications.

  19. An economic analysis of oil sands mining options | Suglo | Ghana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    or investments options. Various economic evaluation criteria such as the Net Present Value, Profitability Index, Internal Rate of Return and Discounted Payback Period are commonly used, alone or in combination, to determine the acceptability or attractiveness of projects and to aid in the selection of the best investment ...

  20. THE VALUATION OF INITIAL SHARE PRICE USING THE FREE CASH FLOW TO FIRM METHOD AND THE REAL OPTION METHOD IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adhy Listya Paramitha

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The purposes of this study were to determine fair share value, to analyze the factors that influence undervalue and overvalue, and to determine the best valuation method. This study made valuation using real options method and free cash flow to firm method. The results of partial logistic regression on Free Cash Flow to Firm showed that tenor variable and equity variable had positive and significant effects, while dummy variable had a negative and significant effect. In the real option model, tenor variable and implied volatility variable had positive and significant effects, while sheets of share variable had a negative and significant effect

  1. mu analysis with real parametric uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Peter M.; Newlin, Matthew P.; Doyle, John C.

    1991-01-01

    The authors give a broad overview, from a LFT (linear fractional transformation)/mu perspective, of some of the theoretical and practical issues associated with robustness in the presence of real parametric uncertainty, with a focus on computation. Recent results on the properties of mu in the mixed case are reviewed, including issues of NP completeness, continuity, computation of bounds, the equivalence of mu and its bounds, and some direct comparisons with Kharitonov-type analysis methods. In addition, some advances in the computational aspects of the problem, including a novel branch and bound algorithm, are briefly presented together with numerical results. The results suggest that while the mixed mu problem may have inherently combinatoric worst-case behavior, practical algorithms with modest computational requirements can be developed for problems of medium size (less than 100 parameters) that are of engineering interest.

  2. REIT Performance and Option of Financing Real Estate Project in Developing Countries - (A Case of M-REIT and NREIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olaopin Olanrele Olusegun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance of REITs have been largely measured using benchmark from the stock market indices (S&P500, Sharpe ratio, KLCI, etc or correlation studies. The real world of REIT shows that both economic and environmental factors exert influence on REIT performance on a simultaneous nature. Adopting quantitative method, where secondary data were statistically analysed. We proposed the use of multivariate regression where REIT performance (Y is the independent variable to be predicted by predictor variables of internal and external factors (X1–Xn. We equally proposed a possibility of REIT financing real estate project, against the existing regulations which prohibit such, using average return method of portfolio analysis on assumed numerical data. The study finds that economic factors jointly have a significant effect on REIT performance at P =0.044 while none of the factors has significant contribution individually. A benchmark REIT return of 5.3% is predicted. The study recommends a linear regression model analysis for REITs benchmark based on past performance for return measurement. REIT can only finance real estate project in the countries where there is acute shortage of fund and property stock. We suggest a modification of REIT laws to accommodate real estate financing by REITs.

  3. Enfoque de opciones reales para la valoración financiera de marcas Real Options Approach to Financial Valuation of Brands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yessica González Londoño

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Los activos intangibles, especialmente las marcas, son parte fundamental del valor de mercado de las compañías, pues representan su ventaja competitiva; sin embargo, la Contabilidad y las Finanzas se enfrentan ante un reto difícil al momento de valorarlos. Los métodos de medición de intangibles en la literatura revisada se caracterizan por ser limitados y subjetivos, e incluso presentan algunos errores conceptuales, encontrándose su utilidad principal en el campo de la gestión. Este artículo propone una metodología para la valoración financiera de marcas a partir de una extensión de la aplicación de opciones reales compuestas de las patentes, aprovechando las similitudes en su construcción. Su aplicación se ilustra mediante la valoración de la marca de una compañía aseguradora.Intangible assets are an important component of the market value of a company, particularly in brands which represent the competitive advantage of the company; however, both Accounting and Finance face a great challenge when trying to value them. The methods which have been proposed by the literature appear to be subjective, limited, and based on some theoretical errors. Their use is mainly circumscribed to the management of intangibles. This paper proposes a methodology for the financial valuation of brands based on the application of a compound real option model to a patent valuation, acknowledging the similarities in their construction. Later, an application to an insurance company is presented.

  4. Options for improving evacuation: Investigating an unconventional strategy and expanding route options using TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Carol Abel; Onyejekwe, Sandra; Wynn, Garlin; Mosley, Brandon

    2015-01-01

    Various agencies including state departments of transportation, emergency management offices, a municipal works agency, or a highway patrol agency may prepare evacuation plans. Storm strength and landfall predictions determine procedures and strategies. Studies have been conducted that examined various methods considering evacuees' behaviors, traffic control, safety, and preferential routing. The occasions when a hurricane is imminent require residents to make a choice between sheltering-in-place or evacuating. Tremendous growth is anticipated in many US coastal communities and that will place greater pressure on evacuation strategies in future years. Given the inevitability of future hurricane evacuations and the intensive growth projections for US coastal areas, this research examines evacuation options with a focus on the Houston-Galveston region. The research examines two scenarios using the TRansportation ANalysis and SIMulation System simulation model which relies on a GIS base. Study results showed that both scenarios perform well as alternative options for inclusion in regional planning. It is recommended that these two scenarios be included in the array of responses available for decision makers depending on the myriad of variables-citizen response, congestion levels on the roadways and location, and prediction of an impending storm. The options may be applied independently or in concert with other strategies.

  5. Robustness analysis for real parametric uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sideris, Athanasios

    1989-01-01

    Some key results in the literature in the area of robustness analysis for linear feedback systems with structured model uncertainty are reviewed. Some new results are given. Model uncertainty is described as a combination of real uncertain parameters and norm bounded unmodeled dynamics. Here the focus is on the case of parametric uncertainty. An elementary and unified derivation of the celebrated theorem of Kharitonov and the Edge Theorem is presented. Next, an algorithmic approach for robustness analysis in the cases of multilinear and polynomic parametric uncertainty (i.e., the closed loop characteristic polynomial depends multilinearly and polynomially respectively on the parameters) is given. The latter cases are most important from practical considerations. Some novel modifications in this algorithm which result in a procedure of polynomial time behavior in the number of uncertain parameters is outlined. Finally, it is shown how the more general problem of robustness analysis for combined parametric and dynamic (i.e., unmodeled dynamics) uncertainty can be reduced to the case of polynomic parametric uncertainty, and thus be solved by means of the algorithm.

  6. Analysis of Coolant Options for Advanced Metal Cooled Nuclear Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    geothermal , are far from being viable options due to limited supply and economic considerations. For these reasons, it is reasonable to expect that...1 Solution Attack 5 Corrosion Erosion 2 Direct Alloying 6 Thermal Gradient Transfer 3 Inter-angular Penetration 7 Concentration Gradient Transfer...Fundamental Issues In LBE Corrosion”, 2001, Los Alamos, New Mexico , USA: Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-UR- 04-0869. 71 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION

  7. ENVI Model Development for Korean Nuclear Spent Fuel Options Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Sunyoung; Jeong, Yon Hong; Han, Jae-Jun; Lee, Aeri; Hwang, Yong-Soo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The disposal facility of the spent nuclear fuel will be operated from 2051. This paper presents the ENVI code developed by GoldSim Software to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea. The ENVI is a simulator to allow decision-makers to assist to evaluate the performance for spent nuclear fuel management. The multiple options for managing the spent nuclear fuel including the storage and transportation are investigated into interim storage, permanent disposal in geological repositories and overseas and domestic reprocessing. The ENVI code uses the GoldSim software to simulate the logistics of the associated activities. The result by the ENVI model not only produces the total cost to compare among the multiple options but also predict the sizes and timings of different facilities required. In order to decide the policy for spent nuclear management this purpose of this paper is to draw the optimum management plan to solve the nuclear spent fuel issue in the economical aspects. This paper is focused on the development of the ENVI's logic and calculations to simulate four options(No Reprocessing, Overseas Reprocessing, Domestic Reprocessing, and Overseas and Domestic Reprocessing) for managing the spent nuclear fuel in South Korea. The time history of the spent nuclear fuel produced from both the existing and future NPP's can be predicted, based on the Goldsim software made available very user friendly model. The simulation result will be used to suggest the strategic plans for the spent nuclear fuel management.

  8. Ground coupled solar heat pumps: analysis of four options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, J.W.

    1981-01-01

    Heat pump systems which utilize both solar energy and energy withdrawn from the ground are analyzed using a simplified procedure which optimizes the solar storage temperature on a monthly basis. Four ways of introducing collected solar energy to the system are optimized and compared. These include use of actively collected thermal input to the heat pump; use of collected solar energy to heat the load directly (two different ways); and use of a passive option to reduce the effective heating load.

  9. Real analysis a comprehensive course in analysis, part 1

    CERN Document Server

    Simon, Barry

    2015-01-01

    A Comprehensive Course in Analysis by Poincaré Prize winner Barry Simon is a five-volume set that can serve as a graduate-level analysis textbook with a lot of additional bonus information, including hundreds of problems and numerous notes that extend the text and provide important historical background. Depth and breadth of exposition make this set a valuable reference source for almost all areas of classical analysis. Part 1 is devoted to real analysis. From one point of view, it presents the infinitesimal calculus of the twentieth century with the ultimate integral calculus (measure theory)

  10. Real-Time Principal-Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duong, Vu; Duong, Tuan

    2005-01-01

    A recently written computer program implements dominant-element-based gradient descent and dynamic initial learning rate (DOGEDYN), which was described in Method of Real-Time Principal-Component Analysis (NPO-40034) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 29, No. 1 (January 2005), page 59. To recapitulate: DOGEDYN is a method of sequential principal-component analysis (PCA) suitable for such applications as data compression and extraction of features from sets of data. In DOGEDYN, input data are represented as a sequence of vectors acquired at sampling times. The learning algorithm in DOGEDYN involves sequential extraction of principal vectors by means of a gradient descent in which only the dominant element is used at each iteration. Each iteration includes updating of elements of a weight matrix by amounts proportional to a dynamic initial learning rate chosen to increase the rate of convergence by compensating for the energy lost through the previous extraction of principal components. In comparison with a prior method of gradient-descent-based sequential PCA, DOGEDYN involves less computation and offers a greater rate of learning convergence. The sequential DOGEDYN computations require less memory than would parallel computations for the same purpose. The DOGEDYN software can be executed on a personal computer.

  11. Energy Recovery from the Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste: A Real Options-Based Facility Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Ranieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, due to the strict regulations on waste landfilling, anaerobic digestion (AD of the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW is increasingly considered a sustainable alternative for waste stabilization and energy recovery. AD can reduce the volume of OFMSW going to landfill and produce, at the same time, biogas and compost, all at a profit. The uncertainty about the collected quantity of organic fraction, however, may undermine the economic-financial sustainability of such plants. While the flexibility characterizing some AD technologies may prove very valuable in uncertain contexts since it allows adapting plant capacity to changing environments, the investment required for building flexible systems is generally higher than the investment for dedicated equipment. Hence, an adequate justification of investments in these flexible systems is needed. This paper presents the results of a study aimed at investigating how different technologies may perform from technical, economic and financial standpoints, in presence of an uncertain organic fraction quantity to be treated. Focusing on two AD treatment plant configurations characterized by a technological process with different degree of flexibility, a real options-based model is developed and then applied to the case of the urban waste management system of the Metropolitan Area of Bari (Italy. Results show the importance of pricing the flexibility of treatment plants, which becomes a critical factor in presence of an uncertain organic fraction. Hence, it has to be taken into consideration in the design phase of these plants.

  12. Implementation of a real option in a sustainable supply chain: an empirical study of alkaline battery recycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucchiella, Federica; D'Adamo, Idiano; Gastaldi, Massimo; Lenny Koh, S. C.

    2014-06-01

    Green supply chain management (GSCM) has emerged as a key approach for enterprises seeking to become environmentally sustainable. This paper aims to evaluate and describe the advantages of a GSCM approach by analysing practices and performance consequences in the battery recycling sector. It seeks to integrate works in supply chain management (SCM), environmental management, performance management and real option (RO) theory into one framework. In particular, life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of a battery recycling plant project, and life cycle costing (LCC) is applied to evaluate its economic impact. Firms, also understanding the relevance of GSCM, have often avoided applying the green principles because of the elevated costs that such management involved. Such costs could also seem superior to the potential advantages since standard performance measurement systems are internally and business focused; for these reasons, we consider all the possible value deriving also by uncertainty associated to a green project using the RO theory. This work is one of the few and pioneering efforts to investigate GSCM practices in the battery recycling sector.

  13. A Real Options Method for Estimating the Adoption Potential of Forestry and Agroforestry Systems on Private Lands in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2010-01-01

    The Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (LMAV), once was the largest forested bottom-land area in the continental United States, but has undergone widespread loss of forest through conversion to farmland. Restoration of forest functions and values has been a key conservation goal in the LMAV since the 1970s. This study utilizes a partial differential real options...

  14. Commercial real estate analysis and investments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geltner, D.; Miller, N.; Clayton, J.; Eichholtz, P.M.A.

    2013-01-01

    The well-known and respected authorship team of Geltner and Miller bring you a new edition of what has become the undisputed and authoritative resource on commercial real estate investment. Streamlined and completely updated with expanded coverage of corporate and international real estate

  15. An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

    2016-01-01

    A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

  16. CRANS - CONFIGURABLE REAL-TIME ANALYSIS SYSTEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccluney, K.

    1994-01-01

    In a real-time environment, the results of changes or failures in a complex, interconnected system need evaluation quickly. Tabulations showing the effects of changes and/or failures of a given item in the system are generally only useful for a single input, and only with regard to that item. Subsequent changes become harder to evaluate as combinations of failures produce a cascade effect. When confronted by multiple indicated failures in the system, it becomes necessary to determine a single cause. In this case, failure tables are not very helpful. CRANS, the Configurable Real-time ANalysis System, can interpret a logic tree, constructed by the user, describing a complex system and determine the effects of changes and failures in it. Items in the tree are related to each other by Boolean operators. The user is then able to change the state of these items (ON/OFF FAILED/UNFAILED). The program then evaluates the logic tree based on these changes and determines any resultant changes to other items in the tree. CRANS can also search for a common cause for multiple item failures, and allow the user to explore the logic tree from within the program. A "help" mode and a reference check provide the user with a means of exploring an item's underlying logic from within the program. A commonality check determines single point failures for an item or group of items. Output is in the form of a user-defined matrix or matrices of colored boxes, each box representing an item or set of items from the logic tree. Input is via mouse selection of the matrix boxes, using the mouse buttons to toggle the state of the item. CRANS is written in C-language and requires the MIT X Window System, Version 11 Revision 4 or Revision 5. It requires 78K of RAM for execution and a three button mouse. It has been successfully implemented on Sun4 workstations running SunOS, HP9000 workstations running HP-UX, and DECstations running ULTRIX. No executable is provided on the distribution medium; however

  17. A basic course in real analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Ajit

    2014-01-01

    Real Number SystemAlgebra of the Real Number System Upper and Lower Bounds LUB Property and Its Applications Absolute Value and Triangle Inequality Sequences and Their Convergence Sequences and Their Convergence Cauchy Sequences Monotone Sequences Sandwich Lemma Some Important Limits Sequences Diverging to Subsequences Sequences Defined Recursively Continuity Continuous Functions Definition of Continuity Intermediate Value Theorem .Extreme Value Theorem Monotone Functions Limits Uniform Continuity Continuous Extensions Differentiation Differentiability of Functions Mean Value Theorems L'Hospit

  18. An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

    2012-11-01

    Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is

  19. Is 'Opt-Out HIV Testing' a real option among pregnant women in rural districts in Kenya?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wamalwa David

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An 'opt-out' policy of routine HIV counseling and testing (HCT is being implemented across sub-Saharan Africa to expand prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT. Although the underlying assumption is that pregnant women in rural Africa are able to voluntarily consent to HIV testing, little is known about the reality and whether 'opt-out' HCT leads to higher completion rates of PMTCT. Factors associated with consent to HIV testing under the 'opt-out' approach were investigated through a large cross-sectional study in Kenya. Methods Observations during HIV pre-test information sessions were followed by a cross-sectional survey of 900 pregnant women in three public district hospitals carrying out PMTCT in the Busia district. Women on their first antenatal care (ANC visit during the current pregnancy were interviewed after giving blood for HIV testing but before learning their test results. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analysis were performed. Results Of the 900 women participating, 97% tested for HIV. Lack of testing kits was the only reason for women not being tested, i.e. nobody declined HIV testing. Despite the fact that 96% had more than four earlier pregnancies and 37% had been tested for HIV at ANC previously, only 17% of the women surveyed knew that testing was optional. Only 20% of those surveyed felt they could make an informed decision to decline HIV testing. Making an informed decision to decline HIV testing was associated with knowing that testing was optional (OR = 5.44, 95%CI 3.44-8.59, not having a stable relationship with the child's father (OR = 1.76, 95%CI 1.02-3.03, and not having discussed HIV testing with a partner before the ANC visit (OR = 2.64 95%CI 1.79-3.86. Conclusion High coverage of HIV testing appears to be achieved at the cost of pregnant women not understanding that testing is optional. Good quality HIV pre-test information is central to ensure that pregnant women

  20. Real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, F.; Daniell, J.; Khazai, B.; Mühr, B.; Kunz-Plapp, T.; Markus, M.; Vervaeck, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM, www.cedim.de) - an interdisciplinary research center founded by the German Research Centre for Geoscience (GFZ) and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) - has embarked on a new style of disaster research known as Forensic Disaster Analysis. The notion has been coined by the Integrated Research on Disaster Risk initiative (IRDR, www.irdrinternational.org) launched by ICSU in 2010. It has been defined as an approach to studying natural disasters that aims at uncovering the root causes of disasters through in-depth investigations that go beyond the reconnaissance reports and case studies typically conducted after disasters. In adopting this comprehensive understanding of disasters CEDIM adds a real-time component to the assessment and evaluation process. By comprehensive we mean that most if not all relevant aspects of disasters are considered and jointly analysed. This includes the impact (human, economy, and infrastructure), comparisons with recent historic events, social vulnerability, reconstruction and long-term impacts on livelihood issues. The forensic disaster analysis research mode is thus best characterized as "event-based research" through systematic investigation of critical issues arising after a disaster across various inter-related areas. The forensic approach requires (a) availability of global data bases regarding previous earthquake losses, socio-economic parameters, building stock information, etc.; (b) leveraging platforms such as the EERI clearing house, relief-web, and the many sources of local and international sources where information is organized; and (c) rapid access to critical information (e.g., crowd sourcing techniques) to improve our understanding of the complex dynamics of disasters. The main scientific questions being addressed are: What are critical factors that control loss of life, of infrastructure, and for economy? What are the critical interactions

  1. Market segmentation for multiple option healthcare delivery systems--an application of cluster analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarboe, G R; Gates, R H; McDaniel, C D

    1990-01-01

    Healthcare providers of multiple option plans may be confronted with special market segmentation problems. This study demonstrates how cluster analysis may be used for discovering distinct patterns of preference for multiple option plans. The availability of metric, as opposed to categorical or ordinal, data provides the ability to use sophisticated analysis techniques which may be superior to frequency distributions and cross-tabulations in revealing preference patterns.

  2. Policy Options Analysis of Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    multi-goal policy analysis. Professor Eugene Bardach , at the University of California, Berkeley, summarizes a multi-goal policy analysis as...much as four years of war. Retrieved March 3, 2011, from http:/www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9281409/ Bardach , E. (2009). A practical guide for policy analysis

  3. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

    2013-03-01

    The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    E-Khatib, Youssef

    2012-09-01

    One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

  5. Sjögren's syndrome: managed care data from a large United States population highlight real-world health care burden and lack of treatment options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birt, Julie A; Tan, YingMeei; Mozaffarian, Neelufar

    2017-01-01

    To better understand the real-world characteristics and costs of Sjögren's syndrome (SS). Analysing the MarketScan Commercial Claims database from Jan. 1, 2006 to Dec. 31, 2011, we identified 10,414 patients ≥18 years old newly diagnosed with SS. Patient characteristics, drugs (commonly used for SS), resource utilisation, and medical costs were evaluated for 12 months pre- and post-diagnosis. Mean age was 55 years; 90% were female. At diagnosis, SS patients were most often seen by rheumatologists (39%) or internists (14.2%); the most common concurrent autoimmune conditions were rheumatoid arthritis (17.9%) and systemic lupus erythematosus (14.6%). Other common comorbidities were hypertension (37.6%), osteoarthritis (31.4%), and hyperlipidaemia/dyslipidaemia (30.3%). Post diagnosis of SS, claims for myocardial infarction and coronary artery bypass graft doubled. Medications of interest prescribed post-diagnosis were eye/mouth drugs (32.2%) and synthetic immunosuppressants (32.1%). Biologic drugs were prescribed to a minority (TNF inhibitors, ~5.0%; non-TNF inhibitors, 1%). Of note, prescriptions for all systemic immunotherapies (synthetic and biologic) were significantly lower in the subgroup without concurrent autoimmune disease, and 15.1% of the overall population had no SS-related prescriptions. Post diagnosis, total medical resource utilisation and total medical costs increased (1.2 and 1.4-fold, respectively). In this retrospective, real-world analysis, medical claims in the first year after SS diagnosis revealed that cardiovascular (CV) events increased and all-cause healthcare costs grew by 40%. Pharmacologic management consisted primarily of low potency immunomodulation and symptomatic treatments. Systemic disease-modifying therapies were used mostly in patients who had another concurrent autoimmune disease, suggesting a lack of treatment options for SS.

  6. A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

    2013-03-15

    Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

  7. Amplification of real-time high resolution melting analysis PCR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, we assessed the usefulness of eight common primers amplifying the respective genes in real-time high resolution melting analysis PCR (real-time HRMA PCR) in terms of time, cost and sensitivity with respect to PCR-SSCP method. We found that case sample can easily be differentiated from control sample by ...

  8. IPv4 and IPv6 protocol compatibility options analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina Misevičienė

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The popularity of the internet has led to a very rapid growth of IPv4 (Internet Protocol v4 users. This caused a shortage of IP addresses, so it was created a new version – IPv6 (Internet Protocol v6. Currently, there are two versions of IP for IPv4 and IPv6. Due to the large differences in addressing the protocols IPv4 and IPv6 are incompatible. It is therefore necessary to find ways to move from IPv4 to IPv6. To facilitate the transition from one version to another are developed various mechanisms and strategies. Comparative analysis is done for dual stack, 6to4 tunnel and NAT64 mechanisms in this work. It has helped to reveal the shortcomings of these mechanisms and their application in selection of realization decisions.

  9. ANALYSIS OF OPTION FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF STUDENTS STUDYING ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia, VECHIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is important, entrepreneur plays a major role at micro and maroeconomic level. Entrepreneur is the manager and employee at the same time, is leader and innovator, his company provides products and services that society needs. Europe needs more entrepreneurs and those who want to follow the path of entrepreneurship needs to face multiple challenges that can be overcome when the future entrepreneur benefit from a complex entrepreneurship education. This paper aims, through applied questionnaire, to identify whether future economists are determined to choose the path of entrepreneurship and start a business on their own. Also, we wanted to identify the obstacles that interviewees consider that you have to struggle to start their business. We applied a questionnaire to students, final year bachelor's degree, studying economics. They were chosen because during the three years study several economic disciplines: microeconomics, macroeconomics, management, accounting, finance, law, economic analysis, the national economy, European policy.

  10. Eye tracker uncertainty analysis and modelling in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fornaser, A.; De Cecco, M.; Leuci, M.; Conci, N.; Daldoss, M.; Armanini, A.; Maule, L.; De Natale, F.; Da Lio, M.

    2017-01-01

    Techniques for tracking the eyes took place since several decades for different applications that range from military, to education, entertainment and clinics. The existing systems are in general of two categories: precise but intrusive or comfortable but less accurate. The idea of this work is to calibrate an eye tracker of the second category. In particular we have estimated the uncertainty both in nominal and in case of variable operating conditions. We took into consideration different influencing factors such as: head movement and rotation, eyes detected, target position on the screen, illumination and objects in front of the eyes. Results proved that the 2D uncertainty can be modelled as a circular confidence interval as far as there is no stable principal directions in both the systematic and the repeatability effects. This confidence region was also modelled as a function of the current working conditions. In this way we can obtain a value of the uncertainty that is a function of the operating condition estimated in real time opening the field to new applications that reconfigure the human machine interface as a function of the operating conditions. Examples can range from option buttons reshape, local zoom dynamically adjusted, speed optimization to regulate interface responsiveness, the possibility to take into account the uncertainty associated to a particular interaction. Furthermore, in the analysis of visual scanning patterns, the resulting Point of Regard maps would be associated with proper confidence levels thus allowing to draw accurate conclusions. We conducted an experimental campaign to estimate and validate the overall modelling procedure obtaining valid results in 86% of the cases.

  11. An analysis of evacuation options for nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tawil, J.J.; Strenge, D.L.; Schultz, R.W. [Battelle Memorial Inst., Richland, WA (United States)

    1987-11-01

    In this report we consider the threat posed by the accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant. The objective is to establish relationships between radiation dose and the cost of evacuation under a wide variety of conditions. The dose can almost always be reduced by evacuating the population from a larger area. However, extending the evacuation zone outward will cause evacuation costs to increase. The purpose of this analysis was to provide the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) a data base for evaluating whether implementation costs and risks averted could be used to justify evacuation at lower doses. The procedures used and results of these analyses are being made available as background information for use by others. We develop cost/dose relationships for 54 scenarios that are based upon the severity of the reactor accident, meteorological conditions during the release of radionuclides into the environment, and the angular width of the evacuation zone. The 54 scenarios are derived from combinations of three accident severity levels, six meteorological conditions and evacuation zone widths of 70{degree}, 90{degree}, and 180{degree}.

  12. Budget impact analysis of 8 hormonal contraceptive options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespi, Simone; Kerrigan, Matthew; Sood, Vipan

    2013-07-01

    To develop a model comparing costs of 8 hormonal contraceptives and determine whether acquisition costs for implants and intrauterine devices (IUDs) were offset by decreased pregnancy-related costs over a 3-year time horizon from a managed care perspective. A model was developed to assess the budget impact of branded or generic oral contraceptives (OCs), quarterly intramuscular depot medroxyprogesterone, etonogestrel/ethinyl estradiol vaginal ring, etonogestrel implant, levonorgestrel IUD, norelgestromin/ethinyl estradiol transdermal contraceptive, and ethinyl estradiol/levonorgestrel extended-cycle OC. Major variables included drug costs, typical use failure rates, discontinuation rates, and pregnancy costs. The base case assessed costs for 1000 women initiating each of the hormonal contraceptives. The etonogestrel implant and levonorgestrel IUD resulted in the fewest pregnancies, 63 and 85, respectively, and the least cost, $1.75 million and $2.0 million, respectively. In comparison, generic OC users accounted for a total of 243 pregnancies and $3.4 million in costs. At the end of year 1, costs for the etonogestrel implant ($800,471) and levonorgestrel IUD ($949,721) were already lower than those for generic OCs ($1,146,890). Sensitivity analysis showed that the cost of pregnancies, not product acquisition cost, was the primary cost driver. Higher initial acquisition costs for the etonogestrel implant and levonorgestrel IUD were offset within 1 year by lower contraceptive failure rates and consequent pregnancy costs. Thus, after accounting for typical use failure rates of contraceptive products, the etonogestrel implant and levonorgestrel IUD emerged as the least expensive hormonal contraceptives.

  13. The RealGas and RealGasH2O Options of the TOUGH+ Code for the Simulation of Coupled Fluid and Heat Flow in Tight/Shale Gas Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moridis, George; Freeman, Craig

    2013-09-30

    We developed two new EOS additions to the TOUGH+ family of codes, the RealGasH2O and RealGas . The RealGasH2O EOS option describes the non-isothermal two-phase flow of water and a real gas mixture in gas reservoirs, with a particular focus in ultra-tight (such as tight-sand and shale gas) reservoirs. The gas mixture is treated as either a single-pseudo-component having a fixed composition, or as a multicomponent system composed of up to 9 individual real gases. The RealGas option has the same general capabilities, but does not include water, thus describing a single-phase, dry-gas system. In addition to the standard capabilities of all members of the TOUGH+ family of codes (fully-implicit, compositional simulators using both structured and unstructured grids), the capabilities of the two codes include: coupled flow and thermal effects in porous and/or fractured media, real gas behavior, inertial (Klinkenberg) effects, full micro-flow treatment, Darcy and non-Darcy flow through the matrix and fractures of fractured media, single- and multi-component gas sorption onto the grains of the porous media following several isotherm options, discrete and fracture representation, complex matrix-fracture relationships, and porosity-permeability dependence on pressure changes. The two options allow the study of flow and transport of fluids and heat over a wide range of time frames and spatial scales not only in gas reservoirs, but also in problems of geologic storage of greenhouse gas mixtures, and of geothermal reservoirs with multi-component condensable (H2O and CH4) and non-condensable gas mixtures. The codes are verified against available analytical and semi-analytical solutions. Their capabilities are demonstrated in a series of problems of increasing complexity, ranging from isothermal flow in simpler 1D and 2D conventional gas reservoirs, to non-isothermal gas flow in 3D fractured shale gas reservoirs involving 4 types of fractures, micro-flow, non-Darcy flow and gas

  14. Space Shuttle Main Engine real time stability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, F. Y.

    1993-01-01

    The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is a reusable, high performance, liquid rocket engine with variable thrust. The engine control system continuously monitors the engine parameters and issues propellant valve control signals in accordance with the thrust and mixture ratio commands. A real time engine simulation lab was installed at MSFC to verify flight software and to perform engine dynamic analysis. A real time engine model was developed on the AD100 computer system. This model provides sufficient fidelity on the dynamics of major engine components and yet simplified enough to be executed in real time. The hardware-in-the-loop type simulation and analysis becomes necessary as NASA is continuously improving the SSME technology, some with significant changes in the dynamics of the engine. The many issues of interfaces between new components and the engine can be better understood and be resolved prior to the firing of the engine. In this paper, the SSME real time simulation Lab at the MSFC, the SSME real time model, SSME engine and control system stability analysis, both in real time and non-real time is presented.

  15. Analysis of the real EADGENE data set:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaffrézic, Florence; de Koning, Dirk-Jan; Boettcher, Paul J

    2007-01-01

    A large variety of methods has been proposed in the literature for microarray data analysis. The aim of this paper was to present techniques used by the EADGENE (European Animal Disease Genomics Network of Excellence) WP1.4 participants for data quality control, normalisation and statistical meth...

  16. Cost effectiveness analysis of graft options in spinal fusion surgery using a Markov model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virk, Sohrab; Sandhu, Harvinder S; Khan, Safdar N

    2012-10-01

    Statistical decision model. To determine the most cost-effective graft option in spinal fusion. Spinal fusion has been shown to be an effective technique to treat lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis. There have been significant advances in bone graft options to improve outcomes related to spinal fusion. RhBMP-2 (RhBMP), iliac crest bone graft (ICBG), local bone alone (LBG), demineralized bone matrix with local bone (DBM), local bone with corticocancellous allograft chips (CCA) have all been used as graft options. There has not been significant research in which graft option is most cost effective. A Markov decision model has been created to identify the most cost-effective graft option for use in spinal fusion to treat 1-level (L4-L5) degenerative spondylolisthesis in a cohort of 60-year-old patients. Costs and effectiveness of successful spinal fusion surgery and revision surgery associated with each graft option was estimated through published data. The quality adjusted life years (QALYs) from these surgeries were compared with the amount of QALYs associated with living with chronic back pain. : In the base case, the incremental cost-effective ratio for each graft option when compared with living with chronic back pain was $21,308/QALY for ICBG, $16,595/QALY for RhBMP, $21,204/QALY for LBG, $21,287/QALY for DBM, and $28,153/QALY for CCA. Therefore, the most cost-effective graft option in the base case was RhBMP. Sensitivity analysis shows that RhBMP is not the most cost-effective option if the revision rate is significantly raised. If the cost of treatment with RhBMP rises >$42,250 then LBG becomes the likely cost-effective treatment. RhBMP is the most cost-effective graft option for L4-L5 fusion for degenerative spondylolisthesis largely due to the reduced rate of revision spine surgery. The increased upfront cost and list of complications associated with RhBMP is offset by the reduced rate of revision surgery.

  17. Enabling Real-Time Analysis at LHCb

    CERN Multimedia

    Govorkova, Katya

    2017-01-01

    A new streaming strategy of the LHCb experiment includes the possibility to perform the physics analysis with candidates reconstructed in the trigger, thus bypassing the offline reconstruction. In the Turbo stream the trigger writes out a compact summary of physics objects containing all information necessary for analyses. This allows an increased output rate and thus higher average efficiencies. The Turbo stream was introduced in 2015 and has allowed for and expanded physics program in Run 2 of the LHC.

  18. Development of automated system for real-time LIBS analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazalan, Elham; Ali, Jalil; Tufail, Kashif; Haider, Zuhaib

    2017-03-01

    Recent developments in Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) instrumentation allow the acquisition of several spectra in a second. The dataset from a typical LIBS experiment can consist of a few thousands of spectra. To extract the useful information from that dataset is painstaking effort and time consuming process. Most of the currently available softwares for spectral data analysis are expensive and used for offline data analysis. LabVIEW software compatible with spectrometer (in this case Ocean Optics Maya pro spectrometer), can be used to for data acquisition and real time analysis. In the present work, a LabVIEW based automated system for real-time LIBS analysis integrated with spectrometer device is developed. This system is capable of performing real time analysis based on as-acquired LIBS spectra. Here, we have demonstrated the LIBS data acquisition and real time calculations of plasma temperature and electron density. Data plots and variations in spectral intensity in response to laser energy were observed on LabVIEW monitor interface. Routine laboratory samples of brass and calcine bone were utilized in this experiment. Developed program has shown impressive performance in real time data acquisition and analysis.

  19. Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

    2017-04-01

    Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.

  20. Fourier analysis of real-world data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Michael L.; Straume, Martin

    1997-05-01

    Biological time-series data pertaining to human circadian and ultradian hormonal rhythms are often short, sparse, irregularly spaced, and noisy. In addition, they often have missing data points and have variable experimental uncertainties. The objective of collecting and analyzing such data is to find the amplitude, phase, and period of the primary rhythmic component contained within the data. Often the question is simply: Does a rhythm exist. The theoretical aspects of some Fourier techniques are discussed, including methods for detrending non-stationary time-series and the evaluation of confidence intervals. Analysis of typical biological data are also presented.

  1. A Decision Support Framework for Feasibility Analysis of International Space Station (ISS) Research Capability Enhancing Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, James N.; Scott,Kelly; Smith, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The assembly and operation of the ISS has generated significant challenges that have ultimately impacted resources available to the program's primary mission: research. To address this, program personnel routinely perform trade-off studies on alternative options to enhance research. The approach, content level of analysis and resulting outputs of these studies vary due to many factors, however, complicating the Program Manager's job of selecting the best option. To address this, the program requested a framework be developed to evaluate multiple research-enhancing options in a thorough, disciplined and repeatable manner, and to identify the best option on the basis of cost, benefit and risk. The resulting framework consisted of a systematic methodology and a decision-support toolset. The framework provides quantifiable and repeatable means for ranking research-enhancing options for the complex and multiple-constraint domain of the space research laboratory. This paper describes the development, verification and validation of this framework and provides observations on its operational use.

  2. Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    comprise[s] creative and systematic work undertaken in order to increase the stock of knowledge—including knowledge of humankind, culture and society—and...supply data (OECD, 2016). (4) Countries, such as Iceland , Ireland, Israel, Luxembourg, Mexico, and New Zealand, are excluded from the table because they...OECD, 2016). (4) Countries, such as Iceland , Ireland, Israel, Luxembourg, Mexico, and New Zealand, are excluded from the table because they had no

  3. Cost-effectiveness analysis of diagnostic options for pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie R Harris

    Full Text Available Diagnosis of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP is challenging, particularly in developing countries. Highly sensitive diagnostic methods are costly, while less expensive methods often lack sensitivity or specificity. Cost-effectiveness comparisons of the various diagnostic options have not been presented.We compared cost-effectiveness, as measured by cost per life-years gained and proportion of patients successfully diagnosed and treated, of 33 PCP diagnostic options, involving combinations of specimen collection methods [oral washes, induced and expectorated sputum, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL] and laboratory diagnostic procedures [various staining procedures or polymerase chain reactions (PCR], or clinical diagnosis with chest x-ray alone. Our analyses were conducted from the perspective of the government payer among ambulatory, HIV-infected patients with symptoms of pneumonia presenting to HIV clinics and hospitals in South Africa. Costing data were obtained from the National Institutes of Communicable Diseases in South Africa. At 50% disease prevalence, diagnostic procedures involving expectorated sputum with any PCR method, or induced sputum with nested or real-time PCR, were all highly cost-effective, successfully treating 77-90% of patients at $26-51 per life-year gained. Procedures using BAL specimens were significantly more expensive without added benefit, successfully treating 68-90% of patients at costs of $189-232 per life-year gained. A relatively cost-effective diagnostic procedure that did not require PCR was Toluidine Blue O staining of induced sputum ($25 per life-year gained, successfully treating 68% of patients. Diagnosis using chest x-rays alone resulted in successful treatment of 77% of patients, though cost-effectiveness was reduced ($109 per life-year gained compared with several molecular diagnostic options.For diagnosis of PCP, use of PCR technologies, when combined with less-invasive patient specimens such as

  4. Pattern theory the stochastic analysis of real-world signals

    CERN Document Server

    Mumford, David

    2010-01-01

    Pattern theory is a distinctive approach to the analysis of all forms of real-world signals. At its core is the design of a large variety of probabilistic models whose samples reproduce the look and feel of the real signals, their patterns, and their variability. Bayesian statistical inference then allows you to apply these models in the analysis of new signals. This book treats the mathematical tools, the models themselves, and the computational algorithms for applying statistics to analyze six representative classes of signals of increasing complexity. The book covers patterns in text, sound

  5. Business and regulation of access networks of new generation. an approximation to the Spanish case using real options; Negocio y regulacion de las redes de acceso de nueva generacion. Aproximacion al caso espanol aplicando opciones reales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallardo Olmedo, F.; Perez Amaral, T.

    2010-07-01

    Telecommunications carriers are deploying the so called New Generation Access (NGA) networks. These networks consist in substituting the last part of the network (the one that ends in the premises of the client) with optical fiber. This part of the network used to be made of copper. The investments in NGA imply considerable risks but can also constitute an impulse for other sectors. This research proposes a method for the evaluation of these investments including the implied real options. We also consider the regulatory implications of the obligations of renting the network to competitors. (Author) 22 refs.

  6. Real Time Analysis and Display of Aircraft Approach Maneuvers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Robert E. (Inventor); Chidester, Thomas R. (Inventor); Lawrence, Robert E. (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    Method and system for monitoring and comparing, in real time, performance of an aircraft during an approach to touchdown along a conventional approach path and along a contemplated modified approach path to touchdown. In a first procedure, a flight parameter value at a selected location is compared and displayed, for the planned path and for the modified path. In a second procedure, flight parameter values FP(t(sub m)) at a sequence (t(sub n)}n, of measurement times is compared and displayed, for the planned path and for a contemplated or presently-executed modified path. If the flight parameter for the planned path and for the modified path differ too much from each other, the pilot in command has an option of terminating the approach along the modified path.

  7. Modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivero, A.

    1994-09-29

    This work deals with the modelling and analysis of real-time and hybrid systems. We first present the timed-graphs as model for the real-time systems and we recall the basic notions of the analysis of real-time systems. We describe the temporal properties on the timed-graphs using TCTL formulas. We consider two methods for property verification: in one hand we study the symbolic model-checking (based on backward analysis) and in the other hand we propose a verification method derived of the construction of the simulation graph (based on forward analysis). Both methods have been implemented within the KRONOS verification tool. Their application for the automatic verification on several real-time systems confirms the practical interest of our approach. In a second part we study the hybrid systems, systems combining discrete components with continuous ones. As in the general case the analysis of this king of systems is not decidable, we identify two sub-classes of hybrid systems and we give a construction based method for the generation of a timed-graph from an element into the sub-classes. We prove that in one case the timed-graph obtained is bi-similar with the considered system and that there exists a simulation in the other case. These relationships allow the application of the described technics on the hybrid systems into the defined sub-classes. (authors). 60 refs., 43 figs., 8 tabs., 2 annexes.

  8. Software Tool for Real-Time Power Quality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CZIKER, A. C.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A software tool dedicated for the analysis of power signals containing harmonic and interharmonic components, unbalance, voltage dips and voltage swells is presented. The software tool is a virtual instrument, which uses innovative algorithms based on time and frequency domains analysis to process power signals. In order to detect the temporary disturbances, edge detection is proposed, whereas for the harmonic analysis Gaussian filter banks are implemented. Considering that a signal recovery algorithm is applied, the harmonic analysis can be made even if voltage dips or swells appear. The virtual instrument input data can be recorded or online signals; the last ones being get through a data acquisition board. The virtual instrument was tested using both virtually created and real signals from measurements performed in distribution networks. The paper contains a numeric example made on a synthetic digital signal and an analysis made in real-time.

  9. Policies and design elements for the repowering of wind farms: A qualitative analysis of different options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rio, Pablo del, E-mail: pablo.delrio@cchs.csic.e [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Calle Albasanz 26-28, Madrid 28037 (Spain); Calvo Silvosa, Anxo, E-mail: calvo@udc.e [Universidade da Coruna, Departamento de Economia Financeira e Contabilidade, Campus de Elvina s/n, A Coruna 15071 (Spain); Iglesias Gomez, Guillermo, E-mail: gwig@udc.e [Universidade da Coruna, Departamento de Economia Aplicada I, Campus de Elvina s/n, A Coruna 15071 (Spain)

    2011-04-15

    Repowering of a wind farm is the process of replacing existing wind turbines with new turbines that either have a larger nameplate capacity or more efficiency, resulting in a net increase of the power generated. Although repowering brings, both, social and private benefits, there are also several obstacles to repowering which justify public support. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview and a qualitative analysis of instruments and design options to support repowering of on-shore wind farms. The multicriteria analysis carried out in this paper shows that all instruments have their advantages and drawbacks. However, feed-in tariffs and investment subsidies seem to be particularly appropriate instruments in this regard. Furthermore, we provide an assessment of different design options to promote repowering according to key assessment criteria. The relevance of design elements hinges on the fact that these are the ones directly affecting the variables that are relevant in the decision to repower (capacity factors and investment costs). - Research highlights: {yields} This paper provides a qualitative analysis of instruments and design options to support repowering in wind farms. {yields} The multicriteria analysis has shown that all instruments have their advantages and drawbacks regarding promotion of repowering. {yields} However, feed-in tariffs and investment subsidies seem to be particularly appropriate instruments in this regard. {yields} The choice of design elements within instruments is at least as important to promote repowering as the choice of specific instruments.

  10. On ∞-entropy points in real analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewa Korczak-Kubiak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We will consider \\(\\infty\\-entropy points in the context of the possibilities of approximation mappings by the functions having \\(\\infty\\-entropy points and belonging to essential (from the point of view of real analysis theory classes of functions: almost continuous, Darboux Baire one and approximately continuous functions.

  11. DEVELOPMENT TOOLKIT FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS OF MOSCOW REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Yu. Yushin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the developmentdirection of the tools of the secondary realestate market analysis associated withthe identification of market. Assessment of their quality, the relationship with each other and real estate, will improve thealgorithms for identifying repetitive objectsto exclude unreliable supply of assessment activities and a new perspective onthe dynamics of the market.

  12. Integration of Guided Discovery in the Teaching of Real Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitrascu, Dorin

    2009-01-01

    I discuss my experience with teaching an advanced undergraduate Real Analysis class using both lecturing and the small-group guided discovery method. The article is structured as follows. The first section is about the organizational and administrative components of the class. In the second section I give examples of successes and difficulties…

  13. Neural network analysis of varying trends in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper neural networks are fitted to the real exchange rates of seven industrialized countries. The size and topology of the used networks is found by reducing the size of the network through the use of multiple correlation coefficients, principal component analysis of residuals

  14. Constructive real analysis : a type-theoretical formalization and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cruz Filipe, Luís Calhorda

    2004-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with the formalization of mathematics in the proof assistant Coq, in particular the formalization of Bishop's constructive development of Real Analysis. In order to do this, serious thought had to be given to several important issues which had not previously been addressed

  15. A structured participatory method to support policy option analysis in a social-ecological system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehryar, Sara; Sliuzas, Richard; Sharifi, Ali; Reckien, Diana; van Maarseveen, Martin

    2017-07-15

    In this study we demonstrate how to support policy option analysis for a problematic Social-Ecological System (SES) with the help of stakeholder participation. SES sustainability problems 1) are highly complex, 2) may lack reliable data, 3) encompass conflicting interests and 4) may require contradictory management interventions. Our approach uses a structured participatory method combining the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model together with Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to capture the complexity of the system and simplify its representation for simulation and policy option analysis. Using this novel mixed-method was useful in dealing with above-mentioned characteristics of the complex SES problems. The method was applied in a case study of water scarcity in Rafsanjan, Iran. FCMs were produced for 60 individual farmers and 40 individual researchers and policy makers. Our mixed-method analysis reveals similarities and differences of stakeholder knowledge and problem perception, and simulates the impacts of alternative policy options according to each group's perception. The final result of our case study indicates that farmers in Rafsanjan strongly believe in the impact of economic diversification on reducing water shortage, but they have a low level of trust in the ability of the government to regulate and control water usage, whereas the policy makers and researchers still believe in the role of government control and monitoring policies to deal with water scarcity in Rafsanjan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Automatic Analysis of Players Behavior in Real Dyadic Chess Situations

    OpenAIRE

    Küchelmann, Thomas; Torche, Paola,; Prasad, Manjunath; Essig, Kai; Schack, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    International audience; The present paper brings together solutions for full-automatic analysis of chess moves and eye tracking data for real dyadic chess games. We combine an electronic chessboard with marker detection in order to automatically protocol relevant and situation-related chess moves and visual attention patterns on pieces and squares. Very first results from initial evaluation studies indicate that the presented solution allows for a reliable automatic offline analysis of the un...

  17. Real analysis measure theory, integration, and Hilbert spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Stein, Elias M

    2005-01-01

    Real Analysis is the third volume in the Princeton Lectures in Analysis, a series of four textbooks that aim to present, in an integrated manner, the core areas of analysis. Here the focus is on the development of measure and integration theory, differentiation and integration, Hilbert spaces, and Hausdorff measure and fractals. This book reflects the objective of the series as a whole: to make plain the organic unity that exists between the various parts of the subject, and to illustrate the wide applicability of ideas of analysis to other fields of mathematics and science. After

  18. Emergy analysis of the recycling options for construction and demolition waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Fang; Shen, Li-yin; Li, Qi-ming

    2011-12-01

    Construction and demolition (C&D) waste is becoming a major contributor to environmental pollution. In Shanghai, China, the quantity of C&D waste is 2.11E+07 t/yr, which accounts for 45% of the total quantity of solid waste. There has been a growing promotion of recycling C&D waste as an effective way to solve this waste problem. However, the evaluation of the efficiency of recycling C&D waste as a potential source of resources is largely based on traditional economic analysis. The economic analysis emphasizes money instead of the harmony between economic benefit and environmental effects. There is a need for a new strategic approach to investigate the efficiency of recycling C&D waste to achieve the integration between economic, social and environmental effects. Emergy theory can be employed to analyze different recycling options for C&D waste. With reference to the Chinese construction industry, this paper demonstrates that the close-loop recycling option is better than the open-loop recycling option for C&D waste in terms of the integration of social, environmental and sustainable aspects. To evaluate different technology solutions for C&D waste recycling, the emergy theory and method is not limited to a cost-benefit balance but can include economic, social, environmental and sustainable effects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Analysis and Optimization of Distributed Real-Time Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2006-01-01

    characteristic to this class of systems: mapping of functionality, the optimization of the access to the communication channel, and the assignment of scheduling policies to processes. Optimization heuristics aiming at producing a schedulable system, with a given amount of resources, are presented....... and scheduling policies. In this context, the task of designing such systems is becoming increasingly difficult. The success of new adequate design methods depends on the availability of efficient analysis as well as optimization techniques. In this paper, we present both analysis and optimization approaches...... for such heterogeneous distributed real-time embedded systems. More specifically, we discuss the schedulability analysis of hard real-time systems, highlighting particular aspects related to the heterogeneous and distributed nature of the applications. We also introduce several design optimization problems...

  20. Real options theory to the pricing of allowances contract to carbon emission; Teoria de opcoes reais para a precificacao de contrato de permissoes de emissao de carbono

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horii, Leticia Takahashi; Parente, Virginia; Goldemberg, Jose [Universidade de Sao Paulo (IEE/USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this work is to develop a pricing model contract for allowances to emit carbon through Real Options. Emissions allowances are equivalent tons of carbon traded between Annex I countries from companies that have the ability to reduce their emissions beyond what is assigned to it. The surplus of emission reductions produced by these companies may be sold in the emissions market. Thus, this work can contribute to improving the management of contractual risk and enable companies estimated the price at which a contract can be signed. Properly evaluate the contracts that the market environment is a challenge for companies. The historic low of information and randomness in the price of carbon allowances in the spot market suggest extreme caution in its use. (author)

  1. Therapeutic Success of the Ketogenic Diet as a Treatment Option for Epilepsy: a Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-feng; Zou, Yan; Ding, Gangqiang

    2013-01-01

    Objective To systematically evaluate therapeutic success of the ketogenic diet (KD) as a treatment option for epilepsy. Methods Using MEDLINE and Google Scholar search, we searched for studies investigating the therapeutic success of ketogenic diet for epilepsy. We estimated therapeutic success rate for ketogenic diet as a treatment option for epilepsy and its 95% CIs using generic inverse variance method. Findings A total of 38 studies met the inclusion criteria. In retrospective studies, the weighted success rate of the patients who take the KD as a treatment option for epilepsy was 58.4% (95% confidence interval (95%CI)=48.7% – 69.9%) at 3 months (n=336); 42.8% (95%CI =36.3% – 50.3%) at 6 months (n=492), and 30.1% (95%CI =24.3% – 37.2%) at 12 months (n=387); in prospective studies, weighted success rate was 53.9% (95%CI 45.5% – 63.8%) at 3 months (n=474); 53.2% (95%CI =44.0% – 64.2%) at 6 months (n=321), and 55.0% (95%CI =45.9% – 65.9%) at 12 months (n=347). Conclusion This meta-analysis provides formal statistical support for the efficacy of the ketogenic diet in the treatment of epileptic patients. PMID:24910737

  2. Analysis and optimisation of heterogeneous real-time embedded systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2006-01-01

    An increasing number of real-time applications are today implemented using distributed heterogeneous architectures composed of interconnected networks of processors. The systems are heterogeneous, not only in terms of hardware components, but also in terms of communication protocols and scheduling...... policies. Each network has its own communication protocol, each processor in the architecture can have its own scheduling policy, and several scheduling policies can share a processor. In this context, the task of designing such systems is becoming increasingly important and difficult at the same time....... The success of such new design methods depends on the availability of analysis and optimisation techniques. Analysis and optimisation techniques for heterogeneous real-time embedded systems are presented in the paper. The authors address in more detail a particular class of such systems called multi...

  3. Analysis and optimisation of heterogeneous real-time embedded systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2005-01-01

    An increasing number of real-time applications are today implemented using distributed heterogeneous architectures composed of interconnected networks of processors. The systems are heterogeneous, not only in terms of hardware components, but also in terms of communication protocols and scheduling...... policies. Each network has its own communication protocol, each processor in the architecture can have its own scheduling policy, and several scheduling policies can share a processor. In this context, the task of designing such systems is becoming increasingly important and difficult at the same time....... The success of such new design methods depends on the availability of analysis and optimisation techniques. Analysis and optimisation techniques for heterogeneous real-time embedded systems are presented in the paper. The authors address in more detail a particular class of such systems called multi...

  4. Analysis and Optimization of Heterogeneous Real-Time Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    2005-01-01

    An increasing number of real-time applications are today implemented using distributed heterogeneous architectures composed of interconnected networks of processors. The systems are heterogeneous not only in terms of hardware components, but also in terms of communication protocols and scheduling...... policies. Each network has its own communication protocol, each processor in the architecture can have its own scheduling policy, and several scheduling policies can share a processor. In this context, the task of designing such systems is becoming increasingly important and difficult at the same time....... The success of such new design methods depends on the availability of analysis and optimization techniques. In this paper, we present analysis and optimization techniques for heterogeneous real-time embedded systems. We address in more detail a particular class of such systems called multi-clusters, composed...

  5. Advances in real and complex analysis with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Cho, Yeol; Agarwal, Praveen; Area, Iván

    2017-01-01

    This book discusses a variety of topics in mathematics and engineering as well as their applications, clearly explaining the mathematical concepts in the simplest possible way and illustrating them with a number of solved examples. The topics include real and complex analysis, special functions and analytic number theory, q-series, Ramanujan’s mathematics, fractional calculus, Clifford and harmonic analysis, graph theory, complex analysis, complex dynamical systems, complex function spaces and operator theory, geometric analysis of complex manifolds, geometric function theory, Riemannian surfaces, Teichmüller spaces and Kleinian groups, engineering applications of complex analytic methods, nonlinear analysis, inequality theory, potential theory, partial differential equations, numerical analysis , fixed-point theory, variational inequality, equilibrium problems, optimization problems, stability of functional equations, and mathematical physics.  It includes papers presented at the 24th International Confe...

  6. Real-Time Analysis of Political Violence, October 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    active month to date in 2012 (see Figure 6). They were active for 21 days of the month. Seven- teen events produced fatalities, at an average of... height of the Algerian Civil War. CONFLICT TRENDS (NO. 7): REAL-TIME ANALYSIS OF AFRICAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE, OCTOBER 2012 *Ongoing quality review...Figure 10: Violent Islamist activity by country, excluding Somalia, Nige- ria and Algeria, 1997 - July 2012. Much of the growth in violent activity

  7. Proof Validation in Real Analysis: Inferring and Checking Warrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcock, Lara; Weber, Keith

    2005-01-01

    In the study reported here, we investigate the skills needed to validate a proof in real analysis, i.e., to determine whether a proof is valid. We first argue that when one is validating a proof, it is not sufficient to make certain that each statement in the argument is true. One must also check that there is good reason to believe that each…

  8. Analysis and Synthesis of Distributed Real-Time Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul; Eles, Petru; Peng, Zebo

    Embedded computer systems are now everywhere: from alarm clocks to PDAs, from mobile phones to cars, almost all the devices we use are controlled by embedded computers. An important class of embedded computer systems is that of hard real-time systems, which have to fulfill strict timing requireme......Embedded computer systems are now everywhere: from alarm clocks to PDAs, from mobile phones to cars, almost all the devices we use are controlled by embedded computers. An important class of embedded computer systems is that of hard real-time systems, which have to fulfill strict timing....... The systems are heterogeneous not only in terms of hardware components, but also in terms of communication protocols and scheduling policies. Regarding this last aspect, time-driven and event-driven systems, as well as a combination of the two, are considered. Such systems are used in many application areas...... of the communication infrastructure, which has a significant impact on the overall system performance and cost. Analysis and Synthesis of Distributed Real-Time Embedded Systems considers the mapping and scheduling tasks within an incremental design process. To reduce the time-to-market of products, the design of real...

  9. Real analysis proof of Fundamental Theorem of Algebra using polynomial interlacing

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Soham

    2017-01-01

    The existence of a real quadratic polynomial factor, given any polynomial with real coefficients, is proven using only elementary real analysis. The aim is to provide an approachable proof to anyone familiar with the least upper property for real numbers, continuity and growth property of polynomials. Complex numbers naturally arise as solutions to the general real quadratic divisors of any polynomial.

  10. Lie Symmetry Analysis of a First-Order Feedback Model of Option Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winter Sinkala

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A first-order feedback model of option pricing consisting of a coupled system of two PDEs, a nonliner generalised Black-Scholes equation and the classical Black-Scholes equation, is studied using Lie symmetry analysis. This model arises as an extension of the classical Black-Scholes model when liquidity is incorporated into the market. We compute the admitted Lie point symmetries of the system and construct an optimal system of the associated one-dimensional subalgebras. We also construct some invariant solutions of the model.

  11. ACCIDENT ANALYSES & CONTROL OPTIONS IN SUPPORT OF THE SLUDGE WATER SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WILLIAMS, J.C.

    2003-11-15

    This report documents the accident analyses and nuclear safety control options for use in Revision 7 of HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062, ''K Basins Safety Analysis Report'' and Revision 4 of HNF-SD-SNF-TSR-001, ''Technical Safety Requirements - 100 KE and 100 KW Fuel Storage Basins''. These documents will define the authorization basis for Sludge Water System (SWS) operations. This report follows the guidance of DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports'', for calculating onsite and offsite consequences. The accident analysis summary is shown in Table ES-1 below. While this document describes and discusses potential control options to either mitigate or prevent the accidents discussed herein, it should be made clear that the final control selection for any accident is determined and presented in HNF-SD-WM-SAR-062.

  12. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

    2012-01-01

    on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

  13. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    farm’s IRR can increase by up to 33% in the analysed (fictive) cases when connected to four neighbouring countries. Contrarily, in case of nodal pricing, the wind farm will have to cope with IRRs that are up to 15% lower when connected to more than one country. These effects can either hamper adequate...... investment or lead to windfall profits, if the level of support were not adjusted according to the choice of regulatory regime. This should therefore be considered when designing the regulatory regime and level of support in the offshore grid in order to maintain an effective and efficient development...

  14. The effects of meshed offshore grids on offshore wind investment – a real options analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schröder, Sascha Thorsten; Kitzing, Lena

    2012-01-01

    farm’s IRR can increase by up to 33% in the analysed (fictive) cases when connected to four neighbouring countries. Contrarily, in case of nodal pricing, the wind farm will have to cope with IRRs that are up to 15% lower when connected to more than one country. These effects can either hamper adequate...... investment or lead to windfall profits, if the level of support were not adjusted according to the choice of regulatory regime. This should therefore be considered when designing the regulatory regime and level of support in the offshore grid in order to maintain an effective and efficient development...

  15. Real-time analysis of water movement in plant sample

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokota, Harumi; Furukawa, Jun; Tanoi, Keitaro [Graduate School, Tokyo Univ. (Japan)

    2000-07-01

    To know the effect of drought stress on two cultivars of cowpea, drought tolerant (DT) and drought sensitive (DS), and to estimate vanadium treatment on plant activity, we performed real time{sup 18}F labeled water uptake measurement by PETIS. Fluoride-18 was produced by bombarding a cubic ice target with 50 MeV protons using TIARA AVF cyclotron. Then {sup 18}F labeled water was applied to investigate water movement in a cowpea plant. Real time water uptake manner could be monitored by PETIS. After the analysis by PETIS, we also measured the distribution of {sup 18}F in a whole plant by BAS. When a cowpea plant was treated with drought stress, there was a difference in water uptake manner between DT and DS cultivar. When a cowpea plant was treated with V for 20 hours before the water uptake experiment, the total amount of {sup 18}F labeled water absorption was found to be drastically decreased. (author)

  16. Real-time analysis for Stochastic errors of MEMS gyro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Zhiyong; Shi, Hongyang; Zhang, Yi

    2017-10-01

    Since a good knowledge of MEMS gyro stochastic errors is important and critical to MEMS INS/GPS integration system. Therefore, the stochastic errors of MEMS gyro should be accurately modeled and identified. The Allan variance method is IEEE standard method in the filed of analysis stochastic errors of gyro. This kind of method can fully characterize the random character of stochastic errors. However, it requires a large amount of data to be stored, resulting in large offline computational burden. Moreover, it has a painful procedure of drawing slope lines for estimation. To overcome the barriers, a simple linear state-space model was established for MEMS gyro. Then, a recursive EM algorithm was implemented to estimate the stochastic errors of MEMS gyro in real time. The experimental results of ADIS16405 IMU show that the real-time estimations of proposed approach are well within the error limits of Allan variance method. Moreover, the proposed method effectively avoids the storage of data.

  17. Real analysis foundations and functions of one variable

    CERN Document Server

    Laczkovich, Miklós

    2015-01-01

    Based on courses given at Eötvös Loránd University (Hungary) over the past 30 years, this introductory textbook develops the central concepts of the analysis of functions of one variable - systematically, with many examples and illustrations, and in a manner that builds upon, and sharpens, the students' mathematical intuition. The modular organization of the book makes it adaptable for either semester or year-long introductory courses, while the wealth of material allows for it to be used at various levels of student sophistication in all programs where analysis is a part of the curriculum, including teachers' education. In the spirit of learning-by-doing, Real Analysis includes more than 500 engaging exercises for the student keen on mastering the basics of analysis. There are frequent hints and occasional complete solutions provided for the more challenging exercises making it an ideal choice for independent study. The book includes a solid grounding in the basics of logic and proofs, sets, and real numb...

  18. GNSS global real-time augmentation positioning: Real-time precise satellite clock estimation, prototype system construction and performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang

    2018-01-01

    Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm

  19. Real analysis series, functions of several variables, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Laczkovich, Miklós

    2017-01-01

    This book develops the theory of multivariable analysis, building on the single variable foundations established in the companion volume, Real Analysis: Foundations and Functions of One Variable. Together, these volumes form the first English edition of the popular Hungarian original, Valós Analízis I & II, based on courses taught by the authors at Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary, for more than 30 years. Numerous exercises are included throughout, offering ample opportunities to master topics by progressing from routine to difficult problems. Hints or solutions to many of the more challenging exercises make this book ideal for independent study, or further reading. Intended as a sequel to a course in single variable analysis, this book builds upon and expands these ideas into higher dimensions. The modular organization makes this text adaptable for either a semester or year-long introductory course. Topics include: differentiation and integration of functions of several variables; infinite numerica...

  20. Self-Timed Scheduling Analysis for Real-Time Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco J. G. Bekooij

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the scheduling analysis of hard real-time streaming applications. These applications are mapped onto a heterogeneous multiprocessor system-on-chip (MPSoC, where we must jointly meet the timing requirements of several jobs. Each job is independently activated and processes streams at its own rate. The dynamic starting and stopping of jobs necessitates the usage of self-timed schedules (STSs. By modeling job implementations using multirate data flow (MRDF graph semantics, real-time analysis can be performed. Traditionally, temporal analysis of STSs for MRDF graphs only aims at evaluating the average throughput. It does not cope well with latency, and it does not take into account the temporal behavior during the initial transient phase. In this paper, we establish an important property of STSs: the initiation times of actors in an STS are bounded by the initiation times of the same actors in any static periodic schedule of the same job; based on this property, we show how to guarantee strictly periodic behavior of a task within a self-timed implementation; then, we provide useful bounds on maximum latency for jobs with periodic, sporadic, and bursty sources, as well as a technique to check latency requirements. We present two case studies that exemplify the application of these techniques: a simplified channel equalizer and a wireless LAN receiver.

  1. Self-Timed Scheduling Analysis for Real-Time Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Orlando M.; Bekooij, Marco J. G.

    2007-12-01

    This paper deals with the scheduling analysis of hard real-time streaming applications. These applications are mapped onto a heterogeneous multiprocessor system-on-chip (MPSoC), where we must jointly meet the timing requirements of several jobs. Each job is independently activated and processes streams at its own rate. The dynamic starting and stopping of jobs necessitates the usage of self-timed schedules (STSs). By modeling job implementations using multirate data flow (MRDF) graph semantics, real-time analysis can be performed. Traditionally, temporal analysis of STSs for MRDF graphs only aims at evaluating the average throughput. It does not cope well with latency, and it does not take into account the temporal behavior during the initial transient phase. In this paper, we establish an important property of STSs: the initiation times of actors in an STS are bounded by the initiation times of the same actors in any static periodic schedule of the same job; based on this property, we show how to guarantee strictly periodic behavior of a task within a self-timed implementation; then, we provide useful bounds on maximum latency for jobs with periodic, sporadic, and bursty sources, as well as a technique to check latency requirements. We present two case studies that exemplify the application of these techniques: a simplified channel equalizer and a wireless LAN receiver.

  2. Cost-effectiveness analysis of therapeutic options for chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infected patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimeno-Ballester, Vicente; Mar, Javier; O'Leary, Aisling; Adams, Róisín; San Miguel, Ramón

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a cost-effectiveness analysis of therapeutic strategies for chronic hepatitis C genotype 3 infected patients in Spain. A Markov model was designed to simulate the progression in a cohort of patients aged 50 years over a lifetime horizon. Sofosbuvir (SOF) plus peginterferon and ribavirin for 12 weeks was a cost-effective option when compared to standard of care (SoC) in the treatment of both 'moderate fibrosis' and 'cirrhotic' patients. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were €35,276/QALY and €18,374/QALY respectively. ICERs for SOF plus daclatasvir (DCV) regimens versus SoC were over the threshold limit considered, at €56,178/QALY and €77,378/QALY for 'moderate fibrosis' and 'cirrhotic' patients respectively. Addition of SOF to IFN-based regimens for genotype 3 was cost-effective for both 'moderate fibrosis' and 'cirrhotic' patients. IFN-free options including SOF and DCV association required price reductions lower than the list prices to be considered cost-effective.

  3. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED OPTIONS OF STRAW USE DEPENDING ON HARVESTING TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukasz KUTA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Post-harvest straw deserves particular attention among agricultural raw materials. It can be intended for sale, applied as litter material in animal husbandry or used in field fertilization. To a lesser extent it can be used for fodder production, covering mounds of roots and tubers and the production of insulation materials in horticulture and building construction. Using surplus straw directly for energy generation, including production of pellets and briquettes, should also be considered rational. Several applications were analyzed. The main purpose of the research is to determine the profitability level of winter wheat cultivation and of energy use of the straw obtained. Among others, they included situations in which obtained straw was used in the production of pellets, in fertilization after prior grinding and mixing with manure or used for direct sale. For our calculations, the costs/ha of wheat cultivation and then straw collection were estimated. The comparative analysis of various options of wheat straw utilization shows the highest profitability in the option of selling the straw and mineral fertilization.

  4. 1992 Columbia River Salmon Flow Measures Options Analysis/EIS : Appendices.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-01-01

    This Options Analysis/Environmental Impact Statement (OA/EIS) identifies, presents effects of, and evaluates the potential options for changing instream flow levels in efforts to increase salmon populations in the lower Columbia and Snake rivers. The potential actions would be implemented during 1992 to benefit juvenile and adult salmon during migration through eight run-of-river reservoirs. The Corps of Engineers (Corps) prepared this document in cooperation with the Bonneville Power Administration and the Bureau of Reclamation. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is a participating agency. The text and appendices of the document describe the characteristics of 10 Federal projects and one private water development project in the Columbia River drainage basin. Present and potential operation of these projects and their effects on the salmon that spawn and rear in the Columbia and Snake River System are presented. The life history, status, and response of Pacific salmon to current environmental conditions are described. The document concludes with an evaluation of the potential effects that could result from implementing proposed actions. The conclusions are based on evaluation of existing data, utilization of numerical models, and application of logical inference. This volume contains the appendices.

  5. VALORACIÓN DEL RIESGO FINANCIERO (CFAR EN LAS EPS A TRAVÉS DE OPCIONES REALES: UNA APLICACIÓN AL NIVEL DE ATENCIÓN IV Financial Risk Valuation (CFARin EPS's through Real Options: An Application at the IV Assistance Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica A. Arango Arango

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available El número de pacientes tratados por insuficiencia renal en Colombia es cada vez mayor; por esta razón conocer los costos asociados a esta enfermedad es una necesidad manifiesta de las Entidades Promotoras de Salud con el fin de garantizar la estabilidad del Sistema de Seguridad Social en Salud. Este trabajo evalúa financieramente, mediante opciones reales, la posibilidad de hacer un trasplante de riñón en un paciente bajo tratamiento de insuficiencia renal y el Flujo de Caja en Riesgo al tener en cuenta esta opción. Se encontró que al hacer un análisis periódico de los costos asociados a continuar con el tratamiento, existen casos en los que es más eficiente hacer el trasplante, disminuyendo el valor presente de las erogaciones del paciente, mejorando el flujo de caja en riesgo y controlando los gastos futuros de la entidad que lo atiende.Number of patients treated for renal failure in Colombia is increasingly high; for this reason, knowing the costs associated to this disease is a clear need for Health Promoting Entities with the purpose of assuring stability of the Health Social Security System. Through real options, this article is a financial evaluation of the possibility of conducting a kidney transplant in a patient being under a renal failure treatment and the cash flow at risk when having this as an option. It was found that when a periodical analysis of costs associated to continuation of treatment is made, there are cases where transplant is a more efficient option to be executed since the present value of the patient's expenses is decreased, thus improving the cash flow at risk and controlling future expenses of the entity treating the patient.

  6. Quantitative Evaluation of Biologic Therapy Options for Psoriasis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbar-Lopez, Zarif K; Yiu, Zenas Z N; Ward, Victoria; Exton, Lesley S; Mohd Mustapa, M Firouz; Samarasekera, Eleanor; Burden, A David; Murphy, Ruth; Owen, Caroline M; Parslew, Richard; Venning, Vanessa; Warren, Richard B; Smith, Catherine H

    2017-08-01

    Multiple biologic treatments are licensed for psoriasis. The lack of head-to-head randomized controlled trials makes choosing between them difficult for patients, clinicians, and guideline developers. To establish their relative efficacy and tolerability, we searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for randomized controlled trials of licensed biologic treatments for skin psoriasis. We performed a network meta-analysis to identify direct and indirect evidence comparing biologics with one another, methotrexate, or placebo. We combined this with hierarchical cluster analysis to consider multiple outcomes related to efficacy and tolerability in combination for each treatment. Study quality, heterogeneity, and inconsistency were evaluated. Direct comparisons from 41 randomized controlled trials (20,561 participants) were included. All included biologics were efficacious compared with placebo or methotrexate at 3-4 months. Overall, cluster analysis showed adalimumab, secukinumab, and ustekinumab were comparable in terms of high efficacy and tolerability. Ixekizumab and infliximab were differentiated by very high efficacy but poorer tolerability. The lack of longer term controlled data limited our analysis to short-term outcomes. Trial performance may not equate to real-world performance, and so results need to be considered alongside real-world, long-term safety and effectiveness data. These data suggest that it is possible to discriminate between biologics to inform clinical practice and decision making (PROSPERO 2015:CRD42015017538). Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Real time video analysis to monitor neonatal medical condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirvaikar, Mukul; Paydarfar, David; Indic, Premananda

    2017-05-01

    One in eight live births in the United States is premature and these infants have complications leading to life threatening events such as apnea (pauses in breathing), bradycardia (slowness of heart) and hypoxia (oxygen desaturation). Infant movement pattern has been hypothesized as an important predictive marker for these life threatening events. Thus estimation of movement along with behavioral states, as a precursor of life threatening events, can be useful for risk stratification of infants as well as for effective management of disease state. However, more important and challenging is the determination of the behavioral state of the infant. This information includes important cues such as sleep position and the status of the eyes, which are important markers for neonatal neurodevelopment state. This paper explores the feasibility of using real time video analysis to monitor the condition of premature infants. The image of the infant can be segmented into regions to localize and focus on specific areas of interest. Analysis of the segmented regions can be performed to identify different parts of the body including the face, arms, legs and torso. This is necessary due to real-time processing speed considerations. Such a monitoring system would be of great benefit as an aide to medical staff in neonatal hospital settings requiring constant surveillance. Any such system would have to satisfy extremely stringent reliability and accuracy requirements, before it can be deployed in a hospital care unit, due to obvious reasons. The effect of lighting conditions and interference will have to be mitigated to achieve such performance.

  8. Real Time Engineering Analysis Based on a Generative Component Implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Klitgaard, Jens

    2007-01-01

    The present paper outlines the idea of a conceptual design tool with real time engineering analysis which can be used in the early conceptual design phase. The tool is based on a parametric approach using Generative Components with embedded structural analysis. Each of these components uses...... the geometry, material properties and fixed point characteristics to calculate the dimensions and subsequent feasibility of any architectural design. The proposed conceptual design tool provides the possibility for the architect to work with both the aesthetic as well as the structural aspects of architecture...... with a static determinate roof structure modelled by beam components is given. The example outlines the idea of the tool for conceptual design in early phase of a multidisciplinary design process between architecture and structural engineering....

  9. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations...... study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil...

  10. Canonical Least-Squares Monte Carlo Valuation of American Options: Convergence and Empirical Pricing Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xisheng Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper by Liu (2010 introduces a method termed the canonical least-squares Monte Carlo (CLM which combines a martingale-constrained entropy model and a least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to price American options. In this paper, we first provide the convergence results of CLM and numerically examine the convergence properties. Then, the comparative analysis is empirically conducted using a large sample of the S&P 100 Index (OEX puts and IBM puts. The results on the convergence show that choosing the shifted Legendre polynomials with four regressors is more appropriate considering the pricing accuracy and the computational cost. With this choice, CLM method is empirically demonstrated to be superior to the benchmark methods of binominal tree and finite difference with historical volatilities.

  11. Media in the formation in Physical Education: analysis of a optional discipline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galdino Rodrigues de Sousa

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The contemporary society has shown us more and more the need for education to the media or the media-education. Because of that there is a new challenge for the degree courses in general: the deployment of political strategies/educational qualified and spaces in initial and continued training in view of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT, Seeking for the preparation of teachers to teach with, in and for the media (BIANCHI, 2009. This article search collaborate with such discussion from the analysis of a optional discipline of the degree course in Physical Education at the Federal University of Sao Joao del Rei call Media and Physical Education  during the months of December 2012 to April 2013.

  12. Analysis of options for management of spent Stretford solution. [Purge of Stretford solution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tallon, J.T.; Rittmeyer, R.W.; Maruhnich, E.D.

    1984-06-01

    During each cycle of the Stretford process a small percentage of the sulfide present in the feed gas is irreversibly converted to thiosulfate and sulfate, and cyanide is irreversibly convertd to thiocyanate. The accumulation of sulfates in the Stretford solution reduces the solubility of the active Stretford chemicals (i.e., sodium vanadate and anthraquinone-disulfonic acid (ADA)). This decreases the rate of oxidative regeneration. To maintain the thiosulfate, sulfate and thiocyanate concentrations at acceptable levels, a continuous purge, or blowdown, of the Stretford solution is required. The continuous purge of Stretford solution results in a loss of active chemicals which must be replaced and ultimately increases Stretford operating costs. In addition, the blowdown must be reclaimed, treated, and/or disposed which also adds to the operating costs. This report presents an analysis of waste-management alternatives for handling the blowdown stream produced from the Stretford process. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative economics of the most promising alternatives available for managing spent Stretford solution by comparing technical feasibility, performance, and costs associated with the alternatives. The available Stretford solution-characterization data and waste-management options were identified by reviewing literature sources. The waste-management options identified were then screened based on technical, economic and environmental criteria to identify the most promising set of alternatives. Finally, a comparative economic analysis was performed on the most promising set of alternatives using the Stretford process at the Great Plains Gasification Associates (GPGA) facilty as the basis for comparison. 23 refs., 5 figs., 29 tabs.

  13. A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

    2015-01-01

    We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

  14. Rehabilitation Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for e-updates Please leave this field empty Rehabilitation Options SHARE Home > Treatment and Care > Continuum of Care > Rehabilitation Options Listen Beginning the Healing Process After undergoing ...

  15. Implementation and Analysis of Real-Time Streaming Protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-González, Iván; Rivero-García, Alexandra; Molina-Gil, Jezabel; Caballero-Gil, Pino

    2017-04-12

    Communication media have become the primary way of interaction thanks to the discovery and innovation of many new technologies. One of the most widely used communication systems today is video streaming, which is constantly evolving. Such communications are a good alternative to face-to-face meetings, and are therefore very useful for coping with many problems caused by distance. However, they suffer from different issues such as bandwidth limitation, network congestion, energy efficiency, cost, reliability and connectivity. Hence, the quality of service and the quality of experience are considered the two most important issues for this type of communication. This work presents a complete comparative study of two of the most used protocols of video streaming, Real Time Streaming Protocol (RTSP) and the Web Real-Time Communication (WebRTC). In addition, this paper proposes two new mobile applications that implement those protocols in Android whose objective is to know how they are influenced by the aspects that most affect the streaming quality of service, which are the connection establishment time and the stream reception time. The new video streaming applications are also compared with the most popular video streaming applications for Android, and the experimental results of the analysis show that the developed WebRTC implementation improves the performance of the most popular video streaming applications with respect to the stream packet delay.

  16. Quantitative real-time single particle analysis of virions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heider, Susanne; Metzner, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.metzner@vetmeduni.ac.at

    2014-08-15

    Providing information about single virus particles has for a long time been mainly the domain of electron microscopy. More recently, technologies have been developed—or adapted from other fields, such as nanotechnology—to allow for the real-time quantification of physical virion particles, while supplying additional information such as particle diameter concomitantly. These technologies have progressed to the stage of commercialization increasing the speed of viral titer measurements from hours to minutes, thus providing a significant advantage for many aspects of virology research and biotechnology applications. Additional advantages lie in the broad spectrum of virus species that may be measured and the possibility to determine the ratio of infectious to total particles. A series of disadvantages remain associated with these technologies, such as a low specificity for viral particles. In this review we will discuss these technologies by comparing four systems for real-time single virus particle analysis and quantification. - Highlights: • We introduce four methods for virus particle-based quantification of viruses. • They allow for quantification of a wide range of samples in under an hour time. • The additional measurement of size and zeta potential is possible for some.

  17. Method of Real-Time Principal-Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duong, Tuan; Duong, Vu

    2005-01-01

    Dominant-element-based gradient descent and dynamic initial learning rate (DOGEDYN) is a method of sequential principal-component analysis (PCA) that is well suited for such applications as data compression and extraction of features from sets of data. In comparison with a prior method of gradient-descent-based sequential PCA, this method offers a greater rate of learning convergence. Like the prior method, DOGEDYN can be implemented in software. However, the main advantage of DOGEDYN over the prior method lies in the facts that it requires less computation and can be implemented in simpler hardware. It should be possible to implement DOGEDYN in compact, low-power, very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) circuitry that could process data in real time.

  18. ClockWork: a Real-Time Feasibility Analysis Tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, P.G.; Hanssen, F.T.Y.; Mullender, Sape J.

    ClockWork shows that we can improve the flexibility and efficiency of real-time kernels. We do this by proposing methods for scheduling based on so-called Real-Time Transactions. ClockWork uses Real-Time Transactions which allow scheduling decisions to be taken by the system. A programmer does not

  19. Greenhouse gas mitigation options in the forestry sector of The Gambia: Analysis based on COMAP model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jallow, B.P.

    1996-12-31

    Results of the 1993 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory of The Gambia showed net CO{sub 2} emissions of over (1.66 x 10{sup 6} tons) and 1% was due to uptake by plantations (0.01 x 10{sup 6} tons). This is a clear indication that there is need to identify changes in the land-use policy, law and tenure that discourages forest clearing at the same time significantly influencing the sustainable distribution of land among forestry, rangeland and livestock, and agriculture. About 11% of the total area of The Gambia is either fallow or barren flats that once supported vegetation and hence is still capable of supporting vegetation. The US Country Study Programme has provided the Government of The Gambia through the National Climate Committee funds to conduct Assessment of Mitigation Options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The Forestry Sector is one area for which assessment is being conducted. The assessment is expected to end in September 1996. The Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) is one of the Models supplied to the National Climate Committee by the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, on behalf of the US Country Study Programme, and is being used to conduct the analysis in The Gambia.

  20. DFSIM with economics: A financial analysis option for the DFSIM Douglas-fir simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger O. Fight; Judith M. Chittester; Gary W. Clendenen

    1984-01-01

    A modified version of the DFSIM Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii) growth and yield simulator, DFSIM WITH ECONOMICS, now has an economics option that allows the user to estimate present net worth at the same time a silvicultural regime is simulated. If desired, the economics option will apply a...

  1. Technoeconomic analysis of different options for the production of hydrogen from sunlight, wind, and biomass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mann, M.K.; Spath, P.L.; Amos, W.A. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1998-08-01

    To determine their technical and economic viability and to provide insight into where each technology is in its development cycle, different options to produce hydrogen from sunlight, wind, and biomass were studied. Additionally, costs for storing and transporting hydrogen were determined for different hydrogen quantities and storage times. The analysis of hydrogen from sunlight examined the selling price of hydrogen from two technologies: direct photoelectrochemical (PEC) conversion of sunlight and photovoltaic (PV)-generated electricity production followed by electrolysis. The wind analysis was based on wind-generated electricity production followed by electrolysis. In addition to the base case analyses, which assume that hydrogen is the sole product, three alternative scenarios explore the economic impact of integrating the PV- and wind-based systems with the electric utility grid. Results show that PEC hydrogen production has the potential to be economically feasible. Additionally, the economics of the PV and wind electrolysis systems are improved by interaction with the grid. The analysis of hydrogen from biomass focused on three gasification technologies. The systems are: low pressure, indirectly-heated gasification followed by steam reforming; high pressure, oxygen-blown gasification followed by steam reforming; and pyrolysis followed by partial oxidation. For each of the systems studied, the downstream process steps include shift conversion followed by hydrogen purification. Only the low pressure system produces hydrogen within the range of the current industry selling prices (typically $0.7--$2/kg, or $5--14/GJ on a HHV basis). A sensitivity analysis showed that, for the other two systems, in order to bring the hydrogen selling price down to $2/kg, negative-priced feedstocks would be required.

  2. Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing for exponential Lévy processes

    KAUST Repository

    Crocce, Fabian

    2015-01-07

    We derive an error bound for utilising the discrete Fourier transform method for solving Partial Integro-Differential Equations (PIDE) that describe european option prices for exponential Lévy driven asset prices. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of a L? bound that separates the dynamical contribution from that arising from the type of the option n in question. The bound achieved does not rely on information of the asymptotic behaviour of option prices at extreme asset values. In addition, we demonstrate improved numerical performance for select examples of practical relevance when compared to established bounding methods.

  3. Autologous stem-cell transplantation in Hodgkin’s lymphoma: analysis of a therapeutic option

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano de Moraes Arantes

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To report the clinical progress of patients with Hodgkin’slymphoma treated with autologous transplantation after failure orrelapse of first-line treatment with chemotherapy and/or radiationtherapy. Methods: The results of a retrospective analysis of 31patients submitted to autologous transplantation as second-linetreatment, between April 2000 and December 2008, were analyzed.Fourteen men and seventeen women, with a median age of 27 years,were submitted to autologous transplantation for relapsed (n = 21or refractory (n = 10 Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Results: Mortalityrelated to treatment in the first 100 days after transplant was 3.2%.With a mean follow-up period of 18 months (range: 1 to 88 months,the probability of global survival and progression-free survival in18 months was 84 and 80%, respectively. The probability of globalsurvival and progression-free survival at 18 months for patients withchemosensitive relapses (n = 21 was 95 and 90%, respectively,versus 60 and 45% for patients with relapses resistant to chemotherapy(n = 10 (p = 0.001 for global survival; p = 0.003 for progressionfreesurvival. In the multivariate analysis, absence of disease or pretransplant disease < 5 cm were favorable factors for global survival (p= 0.02; RR: 0.072; 95%CI: 0.01-0.85 and progression-free survival (p= 0.01; RR: 0.040; 95%CI: 0.007-0.78. Conclusion: Autologous transplantation of stem-cells is a therapeutic option for Hodgkin’s lymphoma patients after the first relapse. Promising results were observed in patients with a low tumor burden at transplant.

  4. MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1991-01-01

    The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  5. MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsham, Gary A. P.

    1992-01-01

    This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

  6. Cluster Computing For Real Time Seismic Array Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, M.; Giudicepietro, F.

    A seismic array is an instrument composed by a dense distribution of seismic sen- sors that allow to measure the directional properties of the wavefield (slowness or wavenumber vector) radiated by a seismic source. Over the last years arrays have been widely used in different fields of seismological researches. In particular they are applied in the investigation of seismic sources on volcanoes where they can be suc- cessfully used for studying the volcanic microtremor and long period events which are critical for getting information on the volcanic systems evolution. For this reason arrays could be usefully employed for the volcanoes monitoring, however the huge amount of data produced by this type of instruments and the processing techniques which are quite time consuming limited their potentiality for this application. In order to favor a direct application of arrays techniques to continuous volcano monitoring we designed and built a small PC cluster able to near real time computing the kinematics properties of the wavefield (slowness or wavenumber vector) produced by local seis- mic source. The cluster is composed of 8 Intel Pentium-III bi-processors PC working at 550 MHz, and has 4 Gigabytes of RAM memory. It runs under Linux operating system. The developed analysis software package is based on the Multiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm and is written in Fortran. The message-passing part is based upon the LAM programming environment package, an open-source imple- mentation of the Message Passing Interface (MPI). The developed software system includes modules devote to receiving date by internet and graphical applications for the continuous displaying of the processing results. The system has been tested with a data set collected during a seismic experiment conducted on Etna in 1999 when two dense seismic arrays have been deployed on the northeast and the southeast flanks of this volcano. A real time continuous acquisition system has been simulated by

  7. Ambient Surface Analysis of Organic Monolayers using Direct Analysis in Real Time Orbitrap Mass Spectrometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manova, R.K.; Joshi, S.; Debrassi, A.; Bhairamadgi, N.S.; Roeven, E.; Gagnon, J.; Tahir, M.N.; Claassen, F.W.; Scheres, L.M.W.; Wennekes, T.; Schroën, C.G.P.H.; Beek, van T.A.; Zuilhof, H.; Nielen, M.W.F.

    2014-01-01

    A better characterization of nanometer-thick organic layers (monolayers) as used for engineering surface properties, biosensing, nanomedicine, and smart materials will widen their application. The aim of this study was to develop direct analysis in real time high-resolution mass spectrometry

  8. Effect of Different Treatment Options on Biomechanics of Immature Teeth: A Finite Element Stress Analysis Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belli, Sema; Eraslan, Oğuz; Eskitaşcıoğlu, Gürcan

    2017-12-16

    Immature teeth (IT) can be managed by using several treatment options, depending on the vitality of the tooth. The aim of this finite element stress analysis study was to evaluate the effect of different treatment procedures on the stresses in three-dimensional IT models. Three-dimensional finite element stress analysis premolar tooth model was created as control (model 1), modified to simulate IT. Eleven models were created to simulate IT filled with (model 2) calcium hydroxide (CH), (model 3) mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA), (model 4) Biodentine (B), (models 5 and 6) MTA plug and B plug without root-filling, (models 7 and 8) MTA plug and B plug with root-filling with composite restoration, and amputation by using (model 9) CH, (model 10) MTA, and (model 11) B. Materials and structures were assumed to be homogenous and isotropic. A 300 N load was applied to the models from the functional cusps and central fossa with a 135° angle. Cosmosworks structural analysis program was used. The results were presented considering the von Mises criteria, and the scale range was limited to 0-10 + MPa. CH use in comparison with temporary filling increased the stresses within the root. MTA filling showed less stresses when compared with B filling. MTA and B plug increased the stresses at apical and root; however, when the roots were filled using gutta-percha and the crowns were restored with composite resin, the stresses at the coronal side of the roots were reduced. The stresses were distributed more favorably in the models simulating CH, MTA, or B amputation. Amputation by using MTA and B showed similar stresses with natural tooth model. CH is not a favorable dressing material for IT when compared with MTA and B. MTA or B plug increases the stresses at apical, whereas root-filling reduces the stresses within the root. Amputation by using CH, MTA, and B in combination with composite resin restoration may save both the coronal and root structure of IT. Copyright © 2017

  9. Analysis of federal policy options for improving US lighting energy efficiency: Commercial and residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atkinson, B.A.; McMahon, J.E.; Mills, E.; Chan, P.; Chan, T.W.; Eto, J.H.; Jennings, J.D.; Koomey, J.G.; Lo, K.W.; Lecar, M.; Price, L.; Rubinstein, F.; Sezgen, O.; Wenzel, T.

    1992-12-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has recognized the opportunity to achieve energy, economic, and environmental benefits by promoting energy-efficient lighting through federal policies, including lighting standards, financial incentives, and information programs. To assist in this process, the Office of Conservation and Renewable Energy`s Office of Codes and Standards invited Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to assess prospective national impacts for a variety of policy options. Some progress has already been made in developing lighting policies at both the federal and state levels. The US DOE`s Office of Building Technologies has evaluated lighting efficiency incentives as part of its analysis for the National Energy Strategy. Fluorescent and incandescent lamp standards are included in the national Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-486, October 24, 1992). A few states have analyzed or implemented lamp and luminaire standards. Many policy-related issues merit further investigation. For example, there is considerable debate over issues such as mandatory or voluntary standards versus component labeling and other education-oriented strategies. Several different technologies are involved that interact with each other-lamps (incandescent, compact fluorescent, and HID), ballasts (for fluorescent and HID lamps), and fixtures with reflectors and lenses. Control systems and operation patterns must also be considered (timers, automated dimming, or occupancy sensors). Lighting applications are diverse, ranging from offices, restaurants, hallways, hospital operating rooms, to exterior lights. Lighting energy use influences heating and cooling requirements in buildings. Successful lighting system design must also address interactions between architectural design elements and daylighting availability. Proper system installation and ongoing operation and maintenance are crucial. The economic aspects of the preceding points must also be considered for policy making.

  10. Analysis of federal policy options for improving US lighting energy efficiency: Commercial and residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atkinson, B.A.; McMahon, J.E.; Mills, E.; Chan, P.; Chan, T.W.; Eto, J.H.; Jennings, J.D.; Koomey, J.G.; Lo, K.W.; Lecar, M.; Price, L.; Rubinstein, F.; Sezgen, O.; Wenzel, T.

    1992-12-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has recognized the opportunity to achieve energy, economic, and environmental benefits by promoting energy-efficient lighting through federal policies, including lighting standards, financial incentives, and information programs. To assist in this process, the Office of Conservation and Renewable Energy's Office of Codes and Standards invited Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to assess prospective national impacts for a variety of policy options. Some progress has already been made in developing lighting policies at both the federal and state levels. The US DOE's Office of Building Technologies has evaluated lighting efficiency incentives as part of its analysis for the National Energy Strategy. Fluorescent and incandescent lamp standards are included in the national Energy Policy Act of 1992 (P.L. 102-486, October 24, 1992). A few states have analyzed or implemented lamp and luminaire standards. Many policy-related issues merit further investigation. For example, there is considerable debate over issues such as mandatory or voluntary standards versus component labeling and other education-oriented strategies. Several different technologies are involved that interact with each other-lamps (incandescent, compact fluorescent, and HID), ballasts (for fluorescent and HID lamps), and fixtures with reflectors and lenses. Control systems and operation patterns must also be considered (timers, automated dimming, or occupancy sensors). Lighting applications are diverse, ranging from offices, restaurants, hallways, hospital operating rooms, to exterior lights. Lighting energy use influences heating and cooling requirements in buildings. Successful lighting system design must also address interactions between architectural design elements and daylighting availability. Proper system installation and ongoing operation and maintenance are crucial. The economic aspects of the preceding points must also be considered for policy making.

  11. The cognitive and neural basis of option generation and subsequent choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Stefan; Simon, Joe J; Kalis, Annemarie; Schweizer, Sophie; Tobler, Philippe N; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2013-12-01

    Decision-making research has thoroughly investigated how people choose from a set of externally provided options. However, in ill-structured real-world environments, possible options for action are not defined by the situation but have to be generated by the agent. Here, we apply behavioral analysis (Study 1) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (Study 2) to investigate option generation and subsequent choice. For this purpose, we employ a new experimental task that requires participants to generate options for simple real-world scenarios and to subsequently decide among the generated options. Correlational analysis with a cognitive test battery suggests that retrieval of options from long-term memory is a relevant process during option generation. The results of the fMRI study demonstrate that option generation in simple real-world scenarios recruits the anterior prefrontal cortex. Furthermore, we show that choice behavior and its neural correlates differ between self-generated and externally provided options. Specifically, choice between self-generated options is associated with stronger recruitment of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex. This impact of option generation on subsequent choice underlines the need for an expanded model of decision making to accommodate choice between self-generated options.

  12. Real-Time Course of Action Analysis (Briefing Charts)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gilmour, Duane; Hanna, Jim; McKeever, Bill; Walter, Mart

    2005-01-01

    .... The challenge is to be able to process real-time situational data and at the same time use that data to generate force structure simulations for multiple predictive effects based courses of action...

  13. Analysis of edible oil processing options for the BIO-Plex advanced life support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwalt, C. J.; Hunter, J.

    2000-01-01

    Edible oil is a critical component of the proposed plant-based Advanced Life Support (ALS) diet. Soybean, peanut, and single-cell oil are the oil source options to date. In terrestrial manufacture, oil is ordinarily extracted with hexane, an organic solvent. However, exposed solvents are not permitted in the spacecraft environment or in enclosed human tests by National Aeronautics and Space Administration due to their potential danger and handling difficulty. As a result, alternative oil-processing methods will need to be utilized. Preparation and recovery options include traditional dehulling, crushing, conditioning, and flaking, extrusion, pressing, water extraction, and supercritical extraction. These processing options were evaluated on criteria appropriate to the Advanced Life Support System and BIO-Plex application including: product quality, product stability, waste production, risk, energy needs, labor requirements, utilization of nonrenewable resources, usefulness of by-products, and versatility and mass of equipment to determine the most appropriate ALS edible oil-processing operation.

  14. Feasibility Study for the Ivano-Frankivsk District Heating Repowering: Analysis of Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markel, L.; Popelka, A.; Laskarevsky, V.

    2002-03-20

    Part of the U.S. Initiative on Joint Implementation with the Ukraine Inter-Ministerial Commission on Climate Change, financed by the US Department of Energy. The project was implemented by a team consisting of the US company SenTech, Inc. and the Ukrainian company Esco-West. The main objective of the effort was to assess available alternatives of Ivano-Frankivsk (I-F) District Heating repowering and provide information for I-F's investment decision process. This study provides information on positive and negative technical and economic aspects of available options. Three options were analyzed for technical merit and economic performance: 1. Installation of cogeneration system based on Gas Turbine (GT) and Heat Recovery Heat Exchanger with thermal capacity of 30 MW and electrical capacity of 13.5 MW. This Option assumes utilization of five existing boilers with total capacity of 221 MW. Existing boilers will be equipped with modern controls. Equipment in this Option was sized for longest operating hours, about 8000 based on the available summer baseload. 2. Installation of Gas Turbine Combined Cycle (GTCC) and Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) with thermal capacity 45 MW and electrical capacity of 58.7 MW. This Option assumes utilization of five existing boilers with total capacity of 221 MW. Existing boilers will be equipped with modern controls. The equipment was sized for medium, shoulder season thermal load, and some cooling was assumed during the summer operation for extension of operating hours for electricity production. 3. Retrofit of six existing boilers (NGB) with total thermal capacity of 255.9 MW by installation of modern control system and minor upgrades. This option assumes only heat production with minimum investment. The best economic performance and the largest investment cost would result from alternative GTCC. This alternative has positive Net Present Value (NPV) with discount rate lower than about 12%, and has IRR slightly above 12%. The

  15. Real analysis for the undergraduate with an invitation to functional analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Pons, Matthew A

    2014-01-01

    This undergraduate textbook introduces students to the basics of real analysis, provides an introduction to more advanced topics including measure theory and Lebesgue integration, and offers an invitation to functional analysis. While these advanced topics are not typically encountered until graduate study, the text is designed for the beginner. The author’s engaging style makes advanced topics approachable without sacrificing rigor. The text also consistently encourages the reader to pick up a pencil and take an active part in the learning process. Key features include: - examples to reinforce theory; - thorough explanations preceding definitions, theorems and formal proofs; - illustrations to support intuition; - over 450 exercises designed to develop connections between the concrete and abstract. This text takes students on a journey through the basics of real analysis and provides those who wish to delve deeper the opportunity to experience mathematical ideas that are beyond the standard undergraduate c...

  16. Integrated Portfolio Analysis: Return on Investment and Real Options Analysis of Intelligence Information Systems (Cryptologic Carry On Program)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-30

    KVA Methodology 33 Appendix 3. Select List of Organizations Who Have Applied KVA Methodology 35 Appendix 4. Case Study Handout 37 Initial...funding be allocated towards intelligence collection or processing? To evaluate and select projects returning maximum benefits, new measurement...Portfolios/Motorola, Unilever • IT Infrastructure/Credit Suisse • Electricity/Peaker-Plants • Acquisitions/Seagate • Contracts/Syngenta, GM Although

  17. Time-Stretch Accelerated Processor for Real-time, In-service, Signal Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lonappan, Cejo K.; Buckley, Brandon W.; Adam, Jost

    2014-01-01

    We demonstrate real-time, in-service, digital signal analysis of 10 Gbit/s data using a 1.2 Tbit/s burst-mode digital processor. The processor comprises a time-stretch front-end and a custom data acquisition and real-time signal processing back- end. Experimental demonstration of real-time, in......-service, signal integrity analysis of streaming video packets at 10 Gbit/s is presented....

  18. Una aplicación de opciones reales a la valoración de contratos de leasing An application of real options to the assessment of leasing contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Andrea Arango Arango

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo es el resultado de una investigación que desarrolla un modelo para la determinación del canon de arrendamiento en un contrato de leasing sobre vehículos, incluyendo la valoración de la opción de compra implícita en éste. Para realizar esta valoración se utilizaron como base los modelos propuestos por Giaccotto et al. [1] y Gamba y Rigon [2] (en tres marcas de vehículos en Colombia para el período comprendido entre Enero de 2004 y Diciembre de 2007. Se identificó el proceso ARMA de las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos. Se realizaron pruebas para identificar posibles efectos ARCH en las series de los retornos de los precios de los vehículos analizados. La estimación del valor de la opción de compra del vehículo al finalizar el contrato de leasing se realiza mediante la implementación del modelo de black-scholes y de simulación Monte Carlo.This article is the result of a research that develops a model related to the determination of the rent on a leasing vehicle contract and the valuation of the call option that gives the lessee the right but not the obligation to buy the used car at the end of the contract at a specified price. We used models proposed by [1] and by [2] in three brands of vehicles in Colombia for the period between January of 2004 and December of 2007. The analysis of the time series of returns of the prices vehicles displayed an ARMA process. We also developed further tests to identify possible ARCH effects in the series of returns of prices of the vehicles analyzed. The estimation of the value of the option to purchase the vehicle at the end of the leasing contract is done by the implementation of the model of Black Scholes and Montecarlo Simulation.

  19. Stochastic Volatility and Option Pricing in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Term Structure Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Konaris, George; Nicolato, Elisa

    We consider a generalized Heath-Jarrow-Morton bond market model which allows both for jumps and stochastic volatility. Specifications with affine and quadratic volatility are studied and explicit option pricing formulas (in the Heston (1993) sense) are derived and implemented....

  20. Lie Symmetry Analysis of the Black-Scholes-Merton Model for European Options with Stochastic Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andronikos Paliathanasis

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available We perform a classification of the Lie point symmetries for the Black-Scholes-Merton Model for European options with stochastic volatility, σ, in which the last is defined by a stochastic differential equation with an Orstein-Uhlenbeck term. In this model, the value of the option is given by a linear (1 + 2 evolution partial differential equation in which the price of the option depends upon two independent variables, the value of the underlying asset, S, and a new variable, y. We find that for arbitrary functional form of the volatility, σ ( y , the (1 + 2 evolution equation always admits two Lie point symmetries in addition to the automatic linear symmetry and the infinite number of solution symmetries. However, when σ ( y = σ 0 and as the price of the option depends upon the second Brownian motion in which the volatility is defined, the (1 + 2 evolution is not reduced to the Black-Scholes-Merton Equation, the model admits five Lie point symmetries in addition to the linear symmetry and the infinite number of solution symmetries. We apply the zeroth-order invariants of the Lie symmetries and we reduce the (1 + 2 evolution equation to a linear second-order ordinary differential equation. Finally, we study two models of special interest, the Heston model and the Stein-Stein model.

  1. Modular Sampling and Analysis Techniques for the Real-Time Analysis of Human Breath

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, M; Farquar, G; Adams, K; Bogan, M; Martin, A; Benner, H; Spadaccini, C; Steele, P; Davis, C; Loyola, B; Morgan, J; Sankaran, S

    2007-07-09

    At LLNL and UC Davis, we are developing several techniques for the real-time sampling and analysis of trace gases, aerosols and exhaled breath that could be useful for a modular, integrated system for breath analysis. Those techniques include single-particle bioaerosol mass spectrometry (BAMS) for the analysis of exhaled aerosol particles or droplets as well as breath samplers integrated with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS) or MEMS-based differential mobility spectrometry (DMS). We describe these techniques and present recent data obtained from human breath or breath condensate, in particular, addressing the question of how environmental exposure influences the composition of breath.

  2. Analysis of hybrid viscous damper by real time hybrid simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodersen, Mark Laier; Ou, Ge; Høgsberg, Jan Becker

    2016-01-01

    Results from real time hybrid simulations are compared to full numerical simulations for a hybrid viscous damper, composed of a viscous dashpot in series with an active actuator and a load cell. By controlling the actuator displacement via filtered integral force feedback the damping performance...... of the hybrid viscous damper is improved, while for pure integral force feedback the damper stroke is instead increased. In the real time hybrid simulations viscous damping is emulated by a bang-bang controlled Magneto-Rheological (MR) damper. The controller activates high-frequency modes and generates drift...... in the actuator displacement, and only a fraction of the measured damper force can therefore be used as input to the investigated integral force feedback in the real time hybrid simulations....

  3. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Waste Treatment Options for Food and Biodegradable Waste Management in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micky A. Babalola

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Dealing with large-scale Food and Biodegradable Waste (FBW often results in many logistical problems and environmental impacts to be considered. These can become great hindrances when the integration of solid waste management is concerned. Extra care is needed to plan such waste disposal or treatment services and facilities, especially with respect to the ecological impact. Decision-making with regards to the sustainable use of these facilities also involves tradeoffs between a number of conflicting objectives, since increasing one benefit may decrease the others. In this study a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA is presented to evaluate different waste management options and their applicability in Japan. The analytical process aims at selecting the most suitable waste treatment option, using pairwise comparisons conducted within a decision hierarchy that was developed through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP. The results of this study show that anaerobic digestion should be chosen as the best FBW treatment option with regards to resource recovery. The study also presents some conditions and recommendations that can enhance the suitability of other options like incineration and composting.

  4. Infrared Signature Analysis: Real Time Monitoring Of Manufacturing Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangs, Edmund R.

    1988-01-01

    The ability to monitor manufacturing processes in an adaptive control mode and perform an inspection in real time is of interest to fabricators in the pressure vessel, aerospace, automotive, nuclear and shipbuilding industries. Results of a series of experiments using infrared thermography as the principal sensing mode are presented to show how artificial intelligence contained in infrared isotherm, contains vast critical process variables. Image processing computer software development has demonstrated in a spot welding application how the process can be monitored and controlled in real time. The IR vision sensor program is now under way. Research thus far has focused on fusion welding, resistance spot welding and metal removal.

  5. The real and the complex a history of analysis in the 19th century

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    This book contains a history of real and complex analysis in the nineteenth century, from the work of Lagrange and Fourier to the origins of set theory and the modern foundations of analysis. It studies the works of many contributors including Gauss, Cauchy, Riemann, and Weierstrass. This book is unique owing to the treatment of real and complex analysis as overlapping, inter-related subjects, in keeping with how they were seen at the time. It is suitable as a course in the history of mathematics for students who have studied an introductory course in analysis, and will enrich any course in undergraduate real or complex analysis.

  6. Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

    2006-11-01

    The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensor packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging

  7. Options from life-cycle analysis for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from crop and livestock production systems

    OpenAIRE

    Wilkinson, J.M.; Audsley, Eric

    2013-01-01

    Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), measured as global warming potential, in twelve crop and seven livestock systems were explored using a systems model-based life-cycle analysis of environmental burdens and resource use. Differences between crops in GHGE per kg product reflected differences in yield per hectare. Technological changes found to reduce GHGE per kg of crop were: (i) 20% decrease in total N (all crops except legumes); (ii) no-till (cereals and legumes only) and ...

  8. A real options model to assess the role of flexibility in forestry and agroforestry adoption and disadoption in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory E. Frey; D. Evan Mercer; Frederick W. Cubbage; Robert C. Abt

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to restore the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley’s forests have not achieved desired levels of ecosystem services production.We examined how the variability of returns and the flexibility to change or postpone decisions (option value) affects the economic potential of forestry and agroforestry systems to keep private land in production while still providing...

  9. Optimal capacitor sizing and placement based on real time analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, optimal capacitor sizing and placement method was used to improve energy efficiency. It involves the placement of capacitors in a specific location with suitable sizing based on the current load of the electrical system. The optimization is done in real time scenario where the sizing and placement of the ...

  10. Real SQL queries 50 challenges : practice for reporting and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cohen, Brian; Mishra, Neerja

    2015-01-01

    Queries improve when challenges are authentic. This book sets your learning on the fast track with realistic problems to solve. Topics span sales, marketing, human resources, purchasing, and production. Real SQL Queries: 50 Challenges is perfect for analysts, report writers, or anyone searching for a hands-on approach to learning SQL Server.

  11. Real-Time Case Method: Analysis of a Second Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theroux, James M.

    2009-01-01

    In 2005, M. Hopkins and J. Theroux implemented the second example of an experimental case study, at 11 business schools in the United States and Canada. The new type of case study, named the "real-time case (RTC) study," uses the Internet to bring business reality to business courses and to facilitate communication among faculty,…

  12. Presenting the Straddle Lemma in an Introductory Real Analysis Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, A.; dos Santos, A. L.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we revisit the concept of strong differentiability of real functions of one variable, underlying the concept of differentiability. Our discussion is guided by the Straddle Lemma, which plays a key role in this context. The proofs of the results presented are designed to meet a young audience in mathematics, typical of students in…

  13. Parametric analysis of turbomachinery options for compressed air energy storage plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, C.S.; Kartsounes, G.T.

    1978-01-01

    A parametric study of possible turbomachinery options for compressed air energy storage plants is presented. The plant is divided into the four subsystems: a turbine system, compressor system, motor/generator, and an underground air storage reservoir. The turbine system comprises a high-pressure turbine, a low-pressure turbine, two combustors, and a recuperator. The compressor system comprises a low-pressure compressor, high-pressure compressor, booster compressor, intercoolers, and an aftercooler. A water-compensated mined cavern constitutes the underground air-storage reservoir. Plant performance is presented in terms of five parameters: specific air flow rate, specific heat rate, specific storage volume, specific compression rate, and overall plant efficiency. The capital and operating costs of the plant as a function of the turbomachinery options are presented. Design variables of the turbomachinery are the reservoir pressure and inlet gas temperatures to the turbines.

  14. Trading in Target Stocks Before Takeover Announcements: An Analysis of Stock and Option Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Marcus Clements; Harminder Singh; Antonie Van Eekelen

    2007-01-01

    In this study we examine both informed trading and contraire trading preceding takeover announcements on US target firms. Our findings suggest that both informed trading and contraire trading exists within the period preceding takeover announcements on both the stock and option markets as evident through abnormal returns and trading volumes. In regard to contraire trading, this study investigates possible explanations for its existence including liquidity clustering, falsely informed trading ...

  15. Flexibility in Early Stage Design of U. S. Navy Ships: An Analysis of Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    system. After earning his Surface Warfare qualification, Jon transferred to the Engineering Duty Officer ( EDO ) community. He reported to Southwest...in projects lies in the myriad of design variables and parameters present for possible evaluation of options (de Neufville and Wang 2006). The design...concerns as a variable in the comparison and allows for comparison of installed capability under constant budget terms. This choice model also only

  16. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  17. Declassification, an actual operating materials management option in Cofrentes; La descalsificacion, una opcion operativa real de gestion de materiales en C. N. Cofrentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Diego compadre, J. L. de; Lopez Alvarez, L.; Analya Lazaro, M.

    2014-07-01

    Methods and procedures developed for declassification feature a series of methodological options and innovative technology, including the systematic use of the spatial random variable named index of Residual activity, level specific factors for declassification determined empirically for each unit of characterization and contrasts of hypothesis not parametric which are used in the demonstration of compliance of the levels of declassification Decision rules authorized by the CSN. (Author)

  18. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  19. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  20. An Analysis of Fuel Cell Options for an All-electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohout, Lisa L.; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2007-01-01

    A study was conducted to assess the performance characteristics of both PEM and SOFC-based fuel cell systems for an all-electric high altitude, long endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Primary and hybrid systems were considered. Fuel options include methane, hydrogen, and jet fuel. Excel-based models were used to calculate component mass as a function of power level and mission duration. Total system mass and stored volume as a function of mission duration for an aircraft operating at 65 kft altitude were determined and compared.

  1. Symmetry analysis of a model for the exercise of a barrier option

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, J. G.; Sophocleous, C.; Leach, P. G. L.

    2013-09-01

    A barrier option takes into account the possibility of an unacceptable change in the price of the underlying stock. Such a change could carry considerable financial loss. We examine one model based upon the Black-Scholes-Merton Equation and determine the functional forms of the barrier function and rebate function which are consistent with a solution of the underlying evolution partial differential equation using the Lie Theory of Extended Groups. The solution is consistent with the possibility of no rebate and the barrier function is very similar to one adopted on an heuristic basis.

  2. Geoinformatic subsystem for real estate market analysis). (Polish Title: Podsystem geoinformatyczny do analizy rynku nieruchomosci)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basista, A.

    2013-12-01

    There are many tools to manage spatial data. They called Geographic Information System (GIS), which apart from data visualization in space, let users make various spatial analysis. Thanks to them, it is possible to obtain more, essential information for real estate market analysis. Many scientific research present GIS exploitation to future mass valuation, because it is necessary to use advanced tools to manage such a huge real estates' data sets gathered for mass valuation needs. In practice, appraisers use rarely these tools for single valuation, because there are not many available GIS tools to support real estate valuation. The paper presents the functionality of geoinformatic subsystem, that is used to support real estate market analysis and real estate valuation. There are showed a detailed description of the process relied to attributes' inputting into the database and the attributes' values calculation based on the proposed definition of attributes' scales. This work presents also the algorithm of similar properties selection that was implemented within the described subsystem. The main stage of this algorithm is the calculation of the price creative indicator for each real estate, using their attributes' values. The set of properties, chosen in this way, are visualized on the map. The geoinformatic subsystem is used for the un-built real estates and living premises. Geographic Information System software was used to worked out this project. The basic functionality of gvSIG software (open source software) was extended and some extra functions were added to support real estate market analysis.

  3. Near real-time analysis of tritium in treated water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skibo, A. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2017-09-27

    The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) is managing large quantities of treated water at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. Moving forward, TEPCO will be discharging from the site clean water that meets agreed criteria. As part of agreements with stakeholders, TEPCO is planning to carefully monitor the water prior to discharge to assure compliance. The objective of this proposal is to support implementation of an on-line “real-time” (continuous or semi-continuous) tritium monitor that will reliably measure levels down to the agreed target 1500 Becquerels per liter (Bq/L).

  4. Correlation Analysis between Nominal and Real Convergence. The Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu Marinas

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the sources of the correlation between the nominal and real convergence, as well as the impact of the macroeconomic politics on it. The perspective of Euro adoption will impose stricter management of monetary and budgetary politics, which will affect negatively the catching up process of the economic delays given the lack of higher economic flexibility. This enables a more rapid adjustment of the economy to some persistent shocks as a result of applying growth aggregate supply politics.

  5. Correlation Analysis between Nominal and Real Convergence. The Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu Marinas

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the sources of the correlation between the nominal and real convergence, as well as the impact of the macroeconomic politics on it. The perspective of Euro adoption will impose stricter management of monetary and budgetary politics, which will affect negatively the catching up process of the economic delays given the lack of higher economic flexibility. This enables a more rapid adjustment of the economy to some persistent shocks as a result of applying growth aggregate supply politics.

  6. A Policy Alternative Analysis and Simplified Scoring Method to Assess Policy Options for Marine Conservation Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharuga, S. M.; Reams, M.

    2016-12-01

    Traditional approaches to marine conservation and management are increasingly being found as inadequate; and, consequently, more complex ecosystem-based approaches to protecting marine ecosystems are growing in popularity. Ecosystem-based approaches, however, can be particularly challenging at a local level where resources and knowledge of specific marine conservation components may be limited. Marine conservation areas are known by a variety of names globally, but can be divided into four general types: Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), Marine Reserves, Fishery Reserves, and Ecological Reserves (i.e. "no take zones"). Each type of conservation area involves specific objectives, program elements and likely socioeconomic consequences. As an aid to community stakeholders and decision makers considering establishment of a marine conservation area, a simple method to compare and score the objectives and attributes of these four approaches is presented. A range of evaluation criteria are considered, including conservation of biodiversity and habitat, effective fishery management, overall cost-effectiveness, fairness to current users, enhancement of recreational activities, fairness to taxpayers, and conservation of genetic diversity. Environmental and socioeconomic costs and benefits of each type of conservation area are also considered. When exploring options for managing the marine environment, particular resource conservation needs must be evaluated individually on a case-by-case basis and the type of conservation area established must be tailored accordingly. However, MPAs are often more successful than other conservation areas because they offer a compromise between the needs of society and the environment, and therefore represent a viable option for ecosystem-based management.

  7. Preliminary evaluation of crisis-relocation fallout-shelter options. Volume 2. Detailed analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D.J.; Clinch, J.M.; Davis, F.H.; Hill, L.G.; Lynch, E.P.; Tanzman, E.A.; Wernette, D.R.

    1982-12-01

    This report presents a preliminary, detailed evaluation of various shelter options for use if the President orders crisis relocation of the US urban population because of strong expectation of a nuclear war. The availability of livable shelter space at 40 ft/sup 2/ per person (congregate-care space) by state is evaluated. Options are evaluated for construction of fallout shelters allowing 10 ft/sup 2/ per person - such shelters are designed to provide 100% survival at projected levels of radioactive fallout. The FEMA concept of upgrading existing buildings to act as fallout shelters can, in principle, provide adequate shelter throughout most of the US. Exceptions are noted and remedies proposed. In terms of upgrading existing buildings to fallout shelter status, great benefits are possible by turning away from a standard national approach and adopting a more site-specific approach. Existing FEMA research provides a solid foundation for successful crisis relocation planning, but the program can be refined by making suitable modifications in its locational, engineering, and institutionally specific elements.

  8. Do healthier foods and diet patterns cost more than less healthy options? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mayuree; Afshin, Ashkan; Singh, Gitanjali; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2013-12-05

    To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prices of healthier versus less healthy foods/diet patterns while accounting for key sources of heterogeneity. MEDLINE (2000-2011), supplemented with expert consultations and hand reviews of reference lists and related citations. Studies reviewed independently and in duplicate were included if reporting mean retail price of foods or diet patterns stratified by healthfulness. We extracted, in duplicate, mean prices and their uncertainties of healthier and less healthy foods/diet patterns and rated the intensity of health differences for each comparison (range 1-10). Prices were adjusted for inflation and the World Bank purchasing power parity, and standardised to the international dollar (defined as US$1) in 2011. Using random effects models, we quantified price differences of healthier versus less healthy options for specific food types, diet patterns and units of price (serving, day and calorie). Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using I(2) statistics. 27 studies from 10 countries met the inclusion criteria. Among food groups, meats/protein had largest price differences: healthier options cost $0.29/serving (95% CI $0.19 to $0.40) and $0.47/200 kcal ($0.42 to $0.53) more than less healthy options. Price differences per serving for healthier versus less healthy foods were smaller among grains ($0.03), dairy (-$0.004), snacks/sweets ($0.12) and fats/oils ($0.02; pchallenges and opportunities for reducing financial barriers to healthy eating.

  9. Real-time video analysis for retail stores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Ehtesham; Maurya, Avinash K.

    2015-03-01

    With the advancement in video processing technologies, we can capture subtle human responses in a retail store environment which play decisive role in the store management. In this paper, we present a novel surveillance video based analytic system for retail stores targeting localized and global traffic estimate. Development of an intelligent system for human traffic estimation in real-life poses a challenging problem because of the variation and noise involved. In this direction, we begin with a novel human tracking system by an intelligent combination of motion based and image level object detection. We demonstrate the initial evaluation of this approach on available standard dataset yielding promising result. Exact traffic estimate in a retail store require correct separation of customers from service providers. We present a role based human classification framework using Gaussian mixture model for this task. A novel feature descriptor named graded colour histogram is defined for object representation. Using, our role based human classification and tracking system, we have defined a novel computationally efficient framework for two types of analytics generation i.e., region specific people count and dwell-time estimation. This system has been extensively evaluated and tested on four hours of real-life video captured from a retail store.

  10. Survival of melanoma patients treated with novel drugs: retrospective analysis of real-world data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polkowska, Marta; Ekk-Cierniakowski, Paweł; Czepielewska, Edyta; Wysoczański, Wojciech; Matusewicz, Wojciech; Kozłowska-Wojciechowska, Małgorzata

    2017-10-01

    Recently, several new drugs have been licensed for advanced melanoma therapy, significantly changing the therapeutic landscape. Ipilimumab and vemurafenib were the first drugs that demonstrated a survival benefit over the long-standing standard therapy with dacarbazine. However, the comparative efficacy of these novel drugs has not been properly assessed yet. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all the Polish population treated between January 2012 and October 2016 with one of the following agents: ipilimumab (IPI), vemurafenib (VEM), dabrafenib (DAB), and classic chemotherapy (CTH). The main objective was to assess the overall survival of melanoma patients treated in real-world conditions, taking into account sequences of treatment. We identified 3397 patients with malignant melanoma treated for the first line and the second line. Patients receiving CTH were significantly older than those treated with the novel drugs. At the same time, the population treated with immunotherapy and targeted therapy was well balanced. Overall survival was significantly better for the novel drugs compared to classic chemotherapy in both lines (for the first line, VEM vs CTH HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.81; p melanoma provide a significant advantage in survival over classic chemotherapy. Comparative assessment of IPI and VEM indicated no difference, but only immunotherapy-treated patients achieved long-lasting results. Our data on sequential treatment indicate that immunotherapy might be a better option for the first line rather than targeted therapy, but that conclusion requires further studies of the best way to manage the treatment of melanoma patients.

  11. Comparison of Different Surgical Options in the Treatment of Pilonidal Disease: Retrospective Analysis of 175 Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omer Faik Ersoy

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Pilonidal sinus disease is a benign disorder with an unidentified etiology and is observed mainly in young adults. It is an important health problem because it causes work loss. Although various nonsurgical treatment options have been tried up to date, there is a consensus on surgical intervention to treat the disease today. The optimal surgical method should be simple, associated with short hospital stay and low recurrence rates. In this study, patients who have undergone different surgical treatment methods due to pilonidal disease were retrospectively analyzed. The medical records of 175 patients who were operated on between 2002 and 2005 at the General Surgery Departments of Gaziosmanpasa University Medical School and Bartin State Hospital for pilonidal disease were reviewed for treatment option, postoperative complications, hospitalization time, work-off periods, and recurrence rates. The patients consisted of 150 (85.3% males with a mean age of 26.47 ± 7.78 years. Marsupialization was applied to 82 (46.9%, unroofing to 20 (14.7%, primary closure to 29 (16.6%, and Limberg flap to 44 (25.1% patients. The longest hospitalization period of 3.61 ± 1.08 days was observed in the Limberg flap group. The longest return to work period (20.12 ± 5.1 days was observed in the marsupialization group. Both differences were significant. The highest complication rate was observed among the primary closure group (31% followed by the patients treated by Limberg flap technique (15.8%. In the primary closure group, infection was detected in five (17.2% and wound dehiscence in four (13.8% individuals. The highest complication rates (31.03% and recurrences (13.8% were observed in the primary closure group. Various operative methods utilized in the treatment of pilonidal disease are associated with a number of advantages and disadvantages. Postoperative complication rates of unroofing and marsupialization are low, but require long wound care. In our study, we

  12. ANALYSIS OF PRICE BUBBLES ON THE CZECH REAL ESTATE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gevorgyan Kristine

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This thesis deals with the issue of price bubbles on the Czech real estate market. The theoretical part explains the price bubble in terms of behavioural finance, and describes the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices from the perspective of the Austrian school and representatives of traditional economics. In the empirical part, it presents ways of identifying bubbles on the property market using relative indicators and econometric models. By means of econometric methods, this thesis analyses specific factors that influence housing prices in the Czech Republic. It puts a particular emphasis on the impact of interest rates on asset prices, because low inflation and expansionary monetary policy can create conditions for the formation of price bubbles.

  13. Raman spectroscopic analysis of real samples: Brazilian bauxite mineralogy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulstich, Fabiano Richard Leite; Castro, Harlem V; de Oliveira, Luiz Fernando Cappa; Neumann, Reiner

    2011-10-01

    In this investigation, Raman spectroscopy with 1064 and 632.8 nm excitation was used to investigate real mineral samples of bauxite ore from mines of Northern Brazil, together with Raman mapping and X-rays diffraction. The obtained results show clearly that the use of microRaman spectroscopy is a powerful tool for the identification of all the minerals usually found in bauxites: gibbsite, kaolinite, goethite, hematite, anatase and quartz. Bulk samples can also be analysed, and FT-Raman is more adequate due to better signal-to-noise ratio and representativity, although not efficient for kaolinite. The identification of fingerprinting vibrations for all the minerals allows the acquisition of Raman-based chemical maps, potentially powerful tools for process mineralogy applied to bauxite ores. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Property Analysis and Suppression Method of Real Measured Sea Spikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Yong

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In case of high-resolution, low grazing angle, high sea state, and horizontal transmitting, horizontal receiving polarization, the radar returns are strengthened, resulting in sea spikes. The sea spikes have the characteristics of high amplitudes, nonstationary, and non-Gaussian, which have a strong impact on the radar detection of weak marine moving targets. This study proposes a method for sea clutter suppression. Firstly, based on the sea spikes identification and selection method, the amplitude, temporal correlation, Doppler spectrum, and fractional power spectrum properties of sea spikes are analyzed. Secondly, the data to be detected are chosen by selecting the background clutter with minimum mean power, which can also eliminate the sea spikes. Correspondingly, sea clutter is suppressed with improved Signal-to-Clutter Ratio (SCR. Finally, the results of experiment with real radar data verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  15. Analysis of radwaste material management options for experimental DUPIC fuel fabrication process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, H. H.; Park, J. J.; Yang, M. S.; Kim, K. H.; Shin, J. M.; Lee, H. S.; Ko, W. I.; Lee, J. W.; Yim, S. P.; Hong, D. H.; Lee, J. Y.; Baik, S. Y.; Song, W. S.; Yoo, B. O.; Lee, E. P.; Kang, I. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-03-01

    This report is desirable to review management options in advance for radioactive waste generated from manufacturing experiment of DUPIC nuclear fuel as well as residual nuclear material and dismantled equipment. This report was written for helping researchers working in related facilities to DUPIC project understanding management of DUPIC radioactive waste as well as fellows in DUPIC project. Also, it will be used as basic material to prove transparency and safeguardability of DUPIC fuel cycle. In order to meet these purposes, this report includes basic experiment plan for manufacturing DUPIC nuclear fuel, outlines for DUPIC manufacturing facility and equipment, arising source and estimated amount of radioactive waste, waste classification and packing, transport cask, transport procedures. 15 refs., 31 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  16. Removing the Correlation Term in Option Pricing Heston Model: Numerical Analysis and Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Company

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the numerical solution of option pricing stochastic volatility model described by a time-dependent, two-dimensional convection-diffusion reaction equation. Firstly, the mixed spatial derivative of the partial differential equation (PDE is removed by means of the classical technique for reduction of second-order linear partial differential equations to canonical form. An explicit difference scheme with positive coefficients and only five-point computational stencil is constructed. The boundary conditions are adapted to the boundaries of the rhomboid transformed numerical domain. Consistency of the scheme with the PDE is shown and stepsize discretization conditions in order to guarantee stability are established. Illustrative numerical examples are included.

  17. A choice experiment analysis for solid waste disposal option: a case study in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pek, Chuen-Khee; Jamal, Othman

    2011-11-01

    In Malaysia, most municipal wastes currently are disposed into poorly managed 'controlled tipping' systems with little or no pollution protection measures. This study was undertaken to assist the relevant governmental bodies and service providers to identify an improved waste disposal management strategy. The study applied the choice experiment technique to estimate the nonmarket values for a number of waste disposal technologies. Implicit prices for environmental attributes such as psychological fear, land use, air pollution, and river water quality were estimated. Compensating surplus estimates incorporating distance from the residences of the respondents to the proposed disposal facility were calculated for a number of generic and technology-specific choice sets. The resulting estimates were higher for technology-specific options, and the distance factor was a significant determinant in setting an equitable solid waste management fee. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Linking renewable energy CDM projects and TGC schemes: An analysis of different options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Del Rio, Pablo [Department of Economics and Business, Facultad de Ciencias Juridicas y Sociales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, C/ Cobertizo de S. Pedro Martir s/n., Toledo-45071 (Spain)]. E-mail: pablo.rio@uclm.es

    2006-11-15

    Renewable energy CDM (RE-CDM) projects encourage cost-effective GHG mitigation and enhanced sustainable development opportunities for the host countries. CERs from CDM projects include the value of the former benefits (i.e., 'climate change benefits'), whereas the second can be given value through the issuing and trading of tradable green certificates (TGCs). Countries could agree to trade these TGCs, leading to additional revenues for the investors in renewable energy projects and, therefore, further encouraging the deployment of CDM projects, currently facing significant barriers. However, the design of a combination of CDM projects and TGC schemes raises several conflicting issues and leads to trade-offs. This paper analyses these issues, identifies the alternatives that may exist to link TGC schemes with RE-CDM projects and analyses the impacts of those options on different variables and actors.

  19. Analysis of options of production and access ways in underground mines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro de Vilhena Costa

    Full Text Available Abstract This article aims to review the issues to be considered in choosing primary access and transportation options for underground mines. The main accesses to underground orebodies are declines or vertical shafts. They serve both as a way to transport ore or waste, and move people, equipment or supplies. In underground mines, the ore transport option significantly affects the productivity and profitability of the company. Then, choice of access is a way to reduce costs and improve production. This study is primarily based on some case studies of Brazilian, South African, Australian and Turkish mines, among others. Literature review shows that the depth at which shaft hoisting becomes a more economically attractive alternative to decline truck haulage is changing from being previously 350 m to present 1000 m, depending on the mining country and cultural underground mine development. For some of them the depth of 1000 m would be the threshold for use of the access by decline. The main criteria in determining access are depth, rate of production and mine life. In South Africa, mines reach depths greater than 3000 m and shaft access is more common. In Australia there are mines that use a ramp (decline to a depth greater than 1000 m. In Brazil, underground mines are still shallow (depth up to 800 m and feature short mine life and, most of them have chosen access by decline. Results of this study corroborate the statement that decline is ideal for shallow mines and low production rates and that shaft is for deep mines, high production rate and long mine life.

  20. Real eigenvalue analysis in NASTRAN by the tridiagonal reduction (FEER) method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M.; Flanagen, P. F.; Rogers, J. L., Jr.

    1976-01-01

    Implementation of the tridiagonal reduction method for real eigenvalue extraction in structural vibration and buckling problems is described. The basic concepts underlying the method are summarized and special features, such as the computation of error bounds and default modes of operation are discussed. In addition, the new user information and error messages and optional diagnostic output relating to the tridiagonal reduction method are presented. Some numerical results and initial experiences relating to usage in the NASTRAN environment are provided, including comparisons with other existing NASTRAN eigenvalue methods.

  1. Software Tool for Real-Time Power Quality Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    CZIKER, A. C.; CHINDRIS, M. D.; Miron, A

    2013-01-01

    A software tool dedicated for the analysis of power signals containing harmonic and interharmonic components, unbalance, voltage dips and voltage swells is presented. The software tool is a virtual instrument, which uses innovative algorithms based on time and frequency domains analysis to process power signals. In order to detect the temporary disturbances, edge detection is proposed, whereas for the harmonic analysis Gaussian filter banks are implemented. Considering that a signal recov...

  2. Timing Analysis of Mixed-Criticality Hard Real-Time Applications Implemented on Distributed Partitioned Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinescu, Sorin Ovidiu; Tamas-Selicean, Domitian; Acretoaie, Vlad

    In this paper we are interested in the timing analysis of mixed-criticality embedded real-time applications mapped on distributed heterogeneous architectures. Mixedcriticality tasks can be integrated onto the same architecture only if there is enough spatial and temporal separation among them. We...... in partitions using fixedpriority preemptive scheduling. We have extended the stateof- the-art algorithms for schedulability analysis to take into account the partitions. The proposed algorithm has been evaluated using several synthetic and real-life benchmarks....

  3. Real-Time Audio-Visual Analysis for Multiperson Videoconferencing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Motlicek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe the design of a system consisting of several state-of-the-art real-time audio and video processing components enabling multimodal stream manipulation (e.g., automatic online editing for multiparty videoconferencing applications in open, unconstrained environments. The underlying algorithms are designed to allow multiple people to enter, interact, and leave the observable scene with no constraints. They comprise continuous localisation of audio objects and its application for spatial audio object coding, detection, and tracking of faces, estimation of head poses and visual focus of attention, detection and localisation of verbal and paralinguistic events, and the association and fusion of these different events. Combined all together, they represent multimodal streams with audio objects and semantic video objects and provide semantic information for stream manipulation systems (like a virtual director. Various experiments have been performed to evaluate the performance of the system. The obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed design, the various algorithms, and the benefit of fusing different modalities in this scenario.

  4. An environmental analysis of options for utilising wasted food and food residue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfield, Thomas L; White, Eoin; Holden, Nicholas M

    2016-12-01

    The potential environmental impact of wasted food minimisation versus its utilisation in a circular bioeconomy is investigated based on a case study of Ireland. The amount of wasted food and food residue (WFFR) produced in 2010 was used for business-as-usual, (a) and four management options were assessed, (b) minimisation, (c) composting, (d) anaerobic digestion and (e) incineration. The environmental impacts Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP) and Eutrophication Potential (EP) were considered. A carbon return on investment (CRoI) was calculated for the three processing technologies (c-e). The results showed that a minimisation strategy for wasted food would result in the greatest reduction of all three impacts, -4.5 Mt CO2-e (GWP), -11.4 kt PO43-e (EP) and -43.9 kt SO2-e (AP) compared to business as usual. For WFFR utilisation in the circular bioeconomy, anaerobic digestion resulted in the lowest environmental impact and best CRoI of -0.84 kg CO2-e per Euro. From an economic perspective, for minimisation to be beneficial, 0.15 kg of wasted food would need to be reduced per Euro spent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Annex 34 : task 1 : analysis of biodiesel options : biomass-derived diesel fuels : final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGill, R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States); Aakko-Saksa, P.; Nylund, N.O. [TransEnergy Consulting Ltd., Helsinki (Finland)

    2009-06-15

    Biofuels are derived from woody biomass, non-woody biomass, and organic wastes. The properties of vegetable oil feedstocks can have profound effects on the properties of the finished biodiesel product. However, all biodiesel fuels have beneficial effects on engine emissions. This report discussed the use of biodiesel fuels as replacements for part of the diesel fuel consumed throughout the world. Biodiesel fuels currently being produced from fatty acid esters today were reviewed, as well as some of the more advanced diesel replacement fuels. The report was produced as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Advanced Motor Fuels (AMF) Implementing Agreement Annex 34, and was divided into 14 sections: (1) an introduction, (2) biodiesel and biomass, (3) an explanation of biodiesel, (4) properties of finished biodiesel fuels, (5) exhaust emissions of finished biodiesel fuels and blends, (6) life-cycle emissions and energy, (7) international biodiesel (FAME) technical standards and specifications, (8) growth in production and use of biodiesel fuels, (9) biofuel refineries, (10) process technology, (11) development and status of biorefineries, (12) comparison of options to produce biobased diesel fuels, (13) barriers and gaps in knowledge, and (14) references. 113 refs., 37 tabs., 74 figs.

  6. Analysis of Technology Options to Reduce the Fuel Consumption of Idling Trucks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F. Stodolsky; L. Gaines; A. Vyas

    2000-06-01

    Long-haul trucks idling overnight consume more than 838 million gallons (20 million barrels) of fuel annually. Idling also emits pollutants. Truck drivers idle their engines primarily to (1) heat or cool the cab and/or sleeper, (2) keep the fuel warm in winter, and (3) keep the engine warm in the winter so that the engine is easier to start. Alternatives to overnight idling could save much of this fuel, reduce emissions, and cut operating costs. Several fuel-efficient alternatives to idling are available to provide heating and cooling: (1) direct-fired heater for cab/sleeper heating, with or without storage cooling; (2) auxiliary power units; and (3) truck stop electrification. Many of these technologies have drawbacks that limit market acceptance. Options that supply electricity are economically viable for trucks that are idled for 1,000-3,000 or more hours a year, while heater units could be used across the board. Payback times for fleets, which would receive quantity discounts on the prices, would be somewhat shorter.

  7. An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

  8. REAL TIME ANALYSIS OF WIRELESS CONTROLLER AREA NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardine Immaculate Mary

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available It is widely known that Control Area Networks (CAN are used in real-time, distributed and parallel processing which cover manufacture plants, humanoid robots, networking fields, etc., In applications where wireless conditions are encountered it is convenient to continue the exchange of CAN frames within the Wireless CAN (WCAN. The WCAN considered in this research is based on wireless token ring protocol (WTRP; a MAC protocol for wireless networks to reduce the number of retransmissions due to collision and the wired counterpart CAN attribute on message based communication. WCAN uses token frame method to provide channel access to the nodes in the system. This method allow all the nodes to share common broadcast channel by taken turns in transmitting upon receiving the token frame which is circulating within the network for specified amount of time. This method provides high throughput in bounded latency environment, consistent and predictable delays and good packet delivery ratio. The most important factor to consider when evaluating a control network is the end-to-end time delay between sensors, controllers, and actuators. The correct operation of a control system depends on the timeliness of the data coming over the network, and thus, a control network should be able to guarantee message delivery within a bounded transmission time. The proposed WCAN is modeled and simulated using QualNet, and its average end to end delay and packet delivery ratio (PDR are calculated. The parameters boundaries of WCAN are evaluated to guarantee a maximum throughput and a minimum latency time, in the case of wireless communications, precisely WCAN.

  9. Simple yet Hidden Counterexamples in Undergraduate Real Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipman, Barbara A.; Shipman, Patrick D.

    2013-01-01

    We study situations in introductory analysis in which students affirmed false statements as true, despite simple counterexamples that they easily recognized afterwards. The study draws attention to how simple counterexamples can become hidden in plain sight, even in an active learning atmosphere where students proposed simple (as well as more…

  10. Northern Cheyenne Reservation Coal Bed Natural Resource Assessment and Analysis of Produced Water Disposal Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaochang Wo; David A. Lopez; Jason Whiteman Sr.; Bruce A. Reynolds

    2004-07-01

    Coalbed methane (CBM) development in the Powder River Basin (PRB) is currently one of the most active gas plays in the United States. Monthly production in 2002 reached about 26 BCF in the Wyoming portion of the basin. Coalbed methane reserves for the Wyoming portion of the basin are approximately 25 trillion cubic feet (TCF). Although coal beds in the Powder River Basin extend well into Montana, including the area of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, the only CBM development in Montana is the CX Field, operated by the Fidelity Exploration, near the Wyoming border. The Northern Cheyenne Reservation is located on the northwest flank of the PRB in Montana with a total land of 445,000 acres. The Reservation consists of five districts, Lame Deer, Busby, Ashland, Birney, and Muddy Cluster and has a population of 4,470 according to the 2000 Census. The CBM resource represents a significant potential asset to the Northern Cheyenne Indian Tribe. Methane gas in coal beds is trapped by hydrodynamic pressure. Because the production of CBM involves the dewatering of coalbed to allow the release of methane gas from the coal matrix, the relatively large volume of the co-produced water and its potential environmental impacts are the primary concerns for the Tribe. Presented in this report is a study conducted by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology (MBMG) in partnership with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe to assess the Tribe’s CBM resources and evaluate applicable water handling options. The project was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Native American Initiative of the National Petroleum Technology Office, under contract DEAC07- 99ID13727. Matching funds were granted by the MBMG in supporting the work of geologic study and mapping conducted at MBMG.

  11. Cost-effectiveness of available treatment options for patients suffering from severe COPD in the UK: a fully incremental analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hertel N

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Nadine Hertel1, Robert W Kotchie1, Yevgeniy Samyshkin1, Matthew Radford1, Samantha Humphreys2, Kevin Jameson21IMS Consulting Group, London, UK; 2MSD Ltd, Hoddesdon, UKPurpose: Frequent exacerbations which are both costly and potentially life-threatening are a major concern to patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, despite the availability of several treatment options. This study aimed to assess the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with alternative treatment regimens for patients with severe COPD in the UK setting.Patients and methods: A Markov cohort model was developed to predict lifetime costs, outcomes, and cost-effectiveness of various combinations of a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA, a long-acting beta agonist (LABA, an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS, and roflumilast in a fully incremental analysis. Patients willing and able to take ICS, and those refusing or intolerant to ICS were analyzed separately. Efficacy was expressed as relative rate ratios of COPD exacerbation associated with alternative treatment regimens, taken from a mixed treatment comparison. The analysis was conducted from the UK National Health Service (NHS perspective. Parameter uncertainty was explored using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: Based on the results of the fully incremental analysis a cost-effectiveness frontier was determined, indicating those treatment regimens which represent the most cost-effective use of NHS resources. For ICS-tolerant patients the cost-effectiveness frontier suggested LAMA as initial treatment. Where patients continue to exacerbate and additional therapy is required, LAMA + LABA/ICS can be a cost-effective option, followed by LAMA + LABA/ICS + roflumilast (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] versus LAMA + LABA/ICS: £16,566 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained. The ICER in ICS-intolerant patients, comparing LAMA + LABA + roflumilast versus LAMA + LABA, was £13

  12. Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shivanjli; Fergus, John

    2017-01-01

    A real time dashboard was developed in order to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. In addition to shared situational awareness the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial set of metrics computed on operational data. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017; Charlotte-Douglas International Airport. Analysis and metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of metrics across delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

  13. Cost Analysis for Real-time Java Scoped-memory Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delvin Defoe

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Java has recently joined C and C++ as a development platform for real-time and embedded applications. Java's garbage collection, while generally a useful feature, can be problematic for these applications: garbage collection occurs at unpredictable times and its latency is typically unbounded. This can compromise necessary real-time guarantees. To overcome these limitations, the Real-Time for Java Expert Group (RTJEG proposed the Real-Time Specification for Java (RTSJ, which introduced new memory models and new threads to utilize those models. One such memory model uses scoped-memory areas, which work best in the context of a NoHeapRealtimeThread (NHRT. Although much work has been done with scoped-memory areas and NHRTs, there is no system-independent analysis of their costs. In this article we present an asymptotic analysis for RTSJ scoped-memory areas and NHRTs.

  14. A Review of the Capability Options Development and Analysis System and the Role of Risk Management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gaidow, Svetoslav; Boey, Seng; Egudo, Richard

    2006-01-01

    ... and its role as an analytical support framework for capability development in the Army. It also aims to reveal the potential of risk management as a valuable analysis and decision-making support tool belonging to CODAS...

  15. Microchips for CE: breakthroughs in real-world food analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escarpa, Alberto; González, María Cristina; López Gil, Miguel Angel; Crevillén, Agustín G; Hervás, Miriam; García, Miguel

    2008-12-01

    The well-known complexity of food matrices is approached using CE microchips with different strategies to improve the selectivity and sensitivity of the analysis by avoiding and/or making the sample preparation as simple as possible: (i) enhancing the peak capacity in order to perform direct injection, (ii) using the microchip platform to measure one target analyte/group of analytes with or without separating other related interferences, (iii) integrating sample preparation steps on the microchip platform, and (iv) integrating new analytical tools from nanotechnology in the detection stage. New analyte separations of food significance involving DNA probes, biogenic amines, vanilla flavors, and dyes have been reported as successfully breaking new barriers in areas of high impact in the market, such as transgenic food analysis, as well as the detection of frauds and toxins. Simple microchip layouts are still the most common designs used, though sophisticated new ones are emerging. In contrast to other application areas, electrochemical detection continues to be the most common detection route, followed by LIF, though non-conventional detection routes are also emerging, such as chemiluminescence or UV. In terms of analytical performance, the integration of calibration and quality control on a microchip platform, and remarkable accuracy and precision are being obtained using creative analytical methodologies that enhance the analytical potency of microfluidic chips for their future commercialization. This review critically states the most important advances derived from work done in the field over the past 2-3 years.

  16. Clean Energy Policy Analysis: Impact Analysis of Potential Clean Energy Policy Options for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busche, S.; Doris, E.; Braccio, R.; Lippert, D.; Finch, P.; O' Toole, D.; Fetter, J.

    2010-04-01

    This report provides detailed analyses of 21 clean energy policy options considered by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative working groups for recommendation to the 2010 Hawaii State Legislature. The report considers the impact each policy may have on ratepayers, businesses, and the state in terms of energy saved, clean energy generated, and the financial costs and benefits. The analyses provide insight into the possible impacts, both qualitative and quantitative, that these policies may have in Hawaii based on the experience with these policies elsewhere. As much as possible, the analyses incorporate Hawaii-specific context to reflect the many unique aspects of energy use in the State of Hawaii.

  17. Multi-channel holographic birfurcative neural network system for real-time adaptive EOS data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hua-Kuang; Diep, J.; Huang, K.

    1991-01-01

    Viewgraphs on multi-channel holographic bifurcative neural network system for real-time adaptive Earth Observing System (EOS) data analysis are presented. The objective is to research and develop an optical bifurcating neuromorphic pattern recognition system for making optical data array comparisons and to evaluate the use of the system for EOS data classification, reduction, analysis, and other applications.

  18. Interactive Construction Digital Tools With Real Time Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klitgaard, Jens; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2007-01-01

    The recent developments in computational design tools have evolved into a sometimes purely digital process which opens up for new perspectives and problems in the sketching process. One of the interesting possibilities lay within the hybrid practitioner- or architect-engineer approach, where an a...... provide the possibility for the designer to work both with the aesthetics as well as the technical aspects of architectural design.......The recent developments in computational design tools have evolved into a sometimes purely digital process which opens up for new perspectives and problems in the sketching process. One of the interesting possibilities lay within the hybrid practitioner- or architect-engineer approach, where...... an architect-engineer or hybrid practitioner works simultaneously with both aesthetic and technical design requirements. In this paper the problem of a vague or not existing link between digital design tools, used by architects and designers, and the analysis tools developed by and for engineers is considered...

  19. Resource-Parameterized Timing Analysis of Real-Time Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Jin Hyun; Legay, Axel; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2015-01-01

    Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are subject to platform-given resource constraints upon such resources as CPU, memory, and bus, in executing their functionalities. This causes the behavior of a verified application to deviate from its intended timing behavior when the application is integrated...... but also the platform once verfiied can be exploited by various applications. The dependent behaviors of application and platform are also analyzed by exploiting their individual models transformed from their independent models. To the end, we provide a highly configurable platform model that can...... be parameterized by various resource congurations. For analysis of application and platform models, we use two model checking techniques: symbolic and statistical model checking techniques of Uppaal. Our framework is demonstrated by a case study where a turn indicator system is analyzed with respect to various...

  20. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities of real-time acceleration gait analysis system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, Hiroshi; Shinkoda, Koichi; Watanabe, Susumu; Fujita, Daisuke; Kobara, Kenichi; Yoshimura, Yosuke; Ito, Tomotaka

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to construct a real-time acceleration gait analysis system equipped with software to analyse real-time trunk acceleration during walking and to examine the intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities of the this system. This system has been comprised of an accelerometer, an acceleration amplifier, a transmitter, two foot switches, a receiver and a personal computer installed with the real-time acceleration analysis software. The acceleration signals received were analysed using the real-time acceleration analysis software, and gait parameters were calculated. The subjects were 20 healthy individuals and two raters. The intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities of the measurement results obtained from this system were examined by performing intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman analysis. The intra-rater and inter-rater ICCs ranged from 0.61 to 0.92 in any gait parameters. In the Bland-Altman analysis, neither fixed nor proportional bias was found in any of the gait parameters. From the ICC and Bland-Altman analysis results, the gait measurement using this system clearly demonstrates that the intra-rater and inter-rater measurements had good reproducibility. Owing to this system, we can improve the clinical efficiency of gait analysis and gait training for physiotherapy. Implication for Rehabilitation This study focused on the advantage of a gait analysis method using an accelerometer and constructed a gait analysis system that calculates real-time gait parameters from trunk acceleration measurements during walking. The gait analysis using this system has good intra-rater and inter-rater reliabilities, and using this system can improve the clinical efficiency of gait analysis and gait training.

  1. ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS FOR GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaitsev D.A.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The paperwork deals with analysis of scenario concerning integration of Moldova’s right bank power system to ENTSO-E. In the paperwork are proposed and analyzed different variants of generation capacity development on the territory of republic’s right bank considering tasks mentioned in the Energy Strategy of Republic Moldova by 2030. For every proposed variant of generation capacity development the analysis of normal modes regarding active power losses was performed for both in whole power system and separately in every of their elements with differentiation by voltage levels. There were performed the computation and estimation of coefficients of static stability reserve by active power and by voltage and also were estimated the import/export of electrical energy as well as were analyzed many other modes of indicators. As result of comparative analysis, the more technical effective variants (in author’s opinion were selected.

  2. RUSHMAPS: Real-Time Uploadable Spherical Harmonic Moment Analysis for Particle Spectrometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa-Vinas, Adolfo

    2013-01-01

    RUSHMAPS is a new onboard data reduction scheme that gives real-time access to key science parameters (e.g. moments) of a class of heliophysics science and/or solar system exploration investigation that includes plasma particle spectrometers (PPS), but requires moments reporting (density, bulk-velocity, temperature, pressure, etc.) of higher-level quality, and tolerates a lowpass (variable quality) spectral representation of the corresponding particle velocity distributions, such that telemetry use is minimized. The proposed methodology trades access to the full-resolution velocity distribution data, saving on telemetry, for real-time access to both the moments and an adjustable-quality (increasing quality increases volume) spectral representation of distribution functions. Traditional onboard data storage and downlink bandwidth constraints severely limit PPS system functionality and drive cost, which, as a consequence, drives a limited data collection and lower angular energy and time resolution. This prototypical system exploit, using high-performance processing technology at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center), uses a SpaceCube and/or Maestro-type platform for processing. These processing platforms are currently being used on the International Space Station as a technology demonstration, and work is currently ongoing in a new onboard computation system for the Earth Science missions, but they have never been implemented in heliospheric science or solar system exploration missions. Preliminary analysis confirms that the targeted processor platforms possess the processing resources required for realtime application of these algorithms to the spectrometer data. SpaceCube platforms demonstrate that the target architecture possesses the sort of compact, low-mass/power, radiation-tolerant characteristics needed for flight. These high-performing hybrid systems embed unprecedented amounts of onboard processing power in the CPU (central processing unit), FPGAs (field

  3. Towards Real-Time Detection of Gait Events on Different Terrains Using Time-Frequency Analysis and Peak Heuristics Algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hui; Ji, Ning; Samuel, Oluwarotimi Williams; Cao, Yafei; Zhao, Zheyi; Chen, Shixiong; Li, Guanglin

    2016-10-01

    Real-time detection of gait events can be applied as a reliable input to control drop foot correction devices and lower-limb prostheses. Among the different sensors used to acquire the signals associated with walking for gait event detection, the accelerometer is considered as a preferable sensor due to its convenience of use, small size, low cost, reliability, and low power consumption. Based on the acceleration signals, different algorithms have been proposed to detect toe off (TO) and heel strike (HS) gait events in previous studies. While these algorithms could achieve a relatively reasonable performance in gait event detection, they suffer from limitations such as poor real-time performance and are less reliable in the cases of up stair and down stair terrains. In this study, a new algorithm is proposed to detect the gait events on three walking terrains in real-time based on the analysis of acceleration jerk signals with a time-frequency method to obtain gait parameters, and then the determination of the peaks of jerk signals using peak heuristics. The performance of the newly proposed algorithm was evaluated with eight healthy subjects when they were walking on level ground, up stairs, and down stairs. Our experimental results showed that the mean F1 scores of the proposed algorithm were above 0.98 for HS event detection and 0.95 for TO event detection on the three terrains. This indicates that the current algorithm would be robust and accurate for gait event detection on different terrains. Findings from the current study suggest that the proposed method may be a preferable option in some applications such as drop foot correction devices and leg prostheses.

  4. Towards Real-Time Detection of Gait Events on Different Terrains Using Time-Frequency Analysis and Peak Heuristics Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Zhou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Real-time detection of gait events can be applied as a reliable input to control drop foot correction devices and lower-limb prostheses. Among the different sensors used to acquire the signals associated with walking for gait event detection, the accelerometer is considered as a preferable sensor due to its convenience of use, small size, low cost, reliability, and low power consumption. Based on the acceleration signals, different algorithms have been proposed to detect toe off (TO and heel strike (HS gait events in previous studies. While these algorithms could achieve a relatively reasonable performance in gait event detection, they suffer from limitations such as poor real-time performance and are less reliable in the cases of up stair and down stair terrains. In this study, a new algorithm is proposed to detect the gait events on three walking terrains in real-time based on the analysis of acceleration jerk signals with a time-frequency method to obtain gait parameters, and then the determination of the peaks of jerk signals using peak heuristics. The performance of the newly proposed algorithm was evaluated with eight healthy subjects when they were walking on level ground, up stairs, and down stairs. Our experimental results showed that the mean F1 scores of the proposed algorithm were above 0.98 for HS event detection and 0.95 for TO event detection on the three terrains. This indicates that the current algorithm would be robust and accurate for gait event detection on different terrains. Findings from the current study suggest that the proposed method may be a preferable option in some applications such as drop foot correction devices and leg prostheses.

  5. The Importance of Recovery Analysis and Exit Options in Emerging Markets' Real Estate Project Financing - A Credit Risk Manager's View

    OpenAIRE

    Kuhs, Cosette

    2017-01-01

    von Cosette Kuhs Arbeit an der Bibliothek noch nicht eingelangt - Daten nicht geprueft - Abweichender Titel nach Übersetzung der Verfasserin/des Verfassers Technische Universität Wien, Univ., Masterarbeit, 2017

  6. A Methodology for Improving the Shipyard Planning Process: Using KVA Analysis, Risk Simulation and Strategic Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-30

    of future earnings or wages Value Chain Scoreboard Originated in 2001 by Baruch Lev , Philip Bardes, Professors of Accounting and Finance...October). Figure 2. Market Value vs. Book Value over Time (S&P 500) (Source: Ballow, Burgman, & Burgoz, 2004, October; Adapted from Lev , 2001... Lev , 2003, September) Further indicators include two of the largest corporate acquisitions in 2005, involving intangible assets valued at above 50

  7. A Primer on Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Knowledge Value Added, Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-08

    Certified Risk Analyst (CRA) programs. His books and software are being used at top universities around the world (including the Bern Institute in...astounding accuracy or the escape velocity required to shoot a man from the Earth to the Moon, or drop a smart bomb within a few feet of its target...Enrico Fermi (sometimes referred to as the father of the atomic bomb ) in 1930, when he used a random method to calculate the properties of the newly

  8. The Development and Application of a Value-Driven Aircraft Maintenance Operations Performance Assessment Model combined with Real Options Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goossens, H.G.; Beelaerts van Blokland, W.W.A.; Curran, R.

    2011-01-01

    This research paper presents the results from the development of an Aircraft Maintenance Operations Performance Assessment Model (AMOPAM). The AMOPAM is able to assess the differences in performance in between two different states or scenarios of aircraft maintenance operations and is able to

  9. Human movement analysis with image processing in real time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauvet, Eric; Paindavoine, Michel; Cannard, F.

    1991-04-01

    In the field of the human sciences, a lot of applications needs to know the kinematic characteristics of the human movements Psycology is associating the characteristics with the control mechanism, sport and biomechariics are associating them with the performance of the sportman or of the patient. So the trainers or the doctors can correct the gesture of the subject to obtain a better performance if he knows the motion properties. Roherton's studies show the children motion evolution2 . Several investigations methods are able to measure the human movement But now most of the studies are based on image processing. Often the systems are working at the T.V. standard (50 frame per secund ). they permit only to study very slow gesture. A human operator analyses the digitizing sequence of the film manually giving a very expensive, especially long and unprecise operation. On these different grounds many human movement analysis systems were implemented. They consist of: - markers which are fixed to the anatomical interesting points on the subject in motion, - Image compression which is the art to coding picture data. Generally the compression Is limited to the centroid coordinates calculation tor each marker. These systems differ from one other in image acquisition and markers detection.

  10. THE EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF SINGAPORE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Chen Chiang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the REIT industry is relatively new in Singapore, the objective of this research is to examine the operation efficiency among firms in the industry through the method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA. In addition, the method of Tobit regression is applied to investigate the impact factors on efficiency. The results are as follows. First, none of 14 firms analyzed performs relatively efficiently based on the average efficiency scores over the sample periods of 2007 to first quarter of 2015. Nevertheless, it is found that First REIT and Suntec REIT are the most efficient and least efficient REITs respectively. Second, ROA is positively correlated to efficiency scores while the negative relationship is found with the debt ratio. Third, regarding property-type, retail REITSs perform better than commercial ones on average. However, the most efficient group is “others” which consists of one hospitality/residential REITs, one healthcare REITs, and three industrial REITs. Fourth, geographical diversification may not affect REIT’s efficiency. Meanwhile, REITs holding more properties overseas perform better than their counterparts on average. Last, in regards to size, small-size REITs significantly perform better in efficiency than those in other categories. Especially, medium-size and largesize REITs do not have significant differences on average in efficiency.

  11. Real Time Intelligent Target Detection and Analysis with Machine Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Ayanna; Padgett, Curtis; Brown, Kenneth

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm for detecting a specified set of targets for an Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) application. ATR involves processing images for detecting, classifying, and tracking targets embedded in a background scene. We address the problem of discriminating between targets and nontarget objects in a scene by evaluating 40x40 image blocks belonging to an image. Each image block is first projected onto a set of templates specifically designed to separate images of targets embedded in a typical background scene from those background images without targets. These filters are found using directed principal component analysis which maximally separates the two groups. The projected images are then clustered into one of n classes based on a minimum distance to a set of n cluster prototypes. These cluster prototypes have previously been identified using a modified clustering algorithm based on prior sensed data. Each projected image pattern is then fed into the associated cluster's trained neural network for classification. A detailed description of our algorithm will be given in this paper. We outline our methodology for designing the templates, describe our modified clustering algorithm, and provide details on the neural network classifiers. Evaluation of the overall algorithm demonstrates that our detection rates approach 96% with a false positive rate of less than 0.03%.

  12. Spatial analysis of fuel treatment options for chaparral on the Angeles national forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Jones; J. Chew; R. Silverstein; C. Stalling; J. Sullivan; J. Troutwine; D. Weise; D. Garwood

    2008-01-01

    Spatial fuel treatment schedules were developed for the chaparral vegetation type on the Angeles National Forest using the Multi-resource Analysis and Geographic Information System (MAGIS). Schedules varied by the priority given to various wildland urban interface areas and the general forest, as well as by the number of acres treated per decade. The effectiveness of...

  13. Exercising options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    In a recent speech to graduates of the College of Computer, Mathematical, and Physical Sciences at the University of Maryland, Anne Petersen, deputy director of the National Science Foundation, encouraged a new generation of scientists to embrace opportunity and choice, and to use their scientific training as an employment credential, not a limit. In her May 23 commencement address, Petersen exhorted students to view their freshly minted diplomas as tickets to a broad and diverse job market, not just one-way trips to the laboratory.“Looking for the options and alternatives open to us—and creating options for ourselves where they are not apparent—can give us a sense of direction and volition that enriches our lives immensely…

  14. Time on drug analysis based on real life data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen Schülter

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The health condition of HIV-1 infected patients has improved during the last years, but lifelong antiretroviral treatment is still needed. However resistance, multiple side effects and drug to drug interactions of antiretrovirals challenge the establishment of a long lasting regimen. The average running time of each antiretroviral drug composing the therapy episodes combination antiretroviral therapy (cART may be seen as an indicator of effectiveness and tolerability. Materials and Methods: To evaluate the running time of each drug used in HIV-1 treatment, we extracted therapy episodes from the latest release of the EuResist database (www.euresist.org. The evaluation period was from Oct 2006 to Oct 2012. Inclusion criteria for this analysis were continuous patient monitoring for at least two years (i.e. latest therapy start in Oct 2010, and the extraction of at least 100 cases per drug analyzed. Drug intake interruptions of less than a month were ignored. Results: At the time of data extraction (Feb 2013, the EuResist database contained data from 61,953 patients of which 11,499 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We obtained 37,035 drug treatment lines from 38,153 cARTs and the overall average length of drug intake was 18.7 months. For each single drug these average durations measured in months were: 18.3 (3TC; 20.8 (ABC; 12.3 (d4T; 14.3 (ddI; 23.2 (FTC; 23.0 (TDF; 13.4 (ZDV; 19.8 (EFV; 21.9 (ETR; 17.7 (NVP; 19.2 (ATV; 22.7 (DRV; 18.7 (FPV; 17.9 (LPV; 15.2 (SQV; 14.6 (TPV; 22.6 (RAL; 21.9 (MVC and 8.9 (T20. Overall drug discontinuation rates at one, two and three years were 35.0, 48.8 and 95.8%, respectively. Average discontinuation rates for the different drug classes at two years these were: 46.2% for NRTIs; 49.7% for NNRTIs; 55.4% for PIs and 37.6% for Raltegravir/Maraviroc. Conclusions: In this cohort the overall frequency of therapy changes is high. After two years of treatment, on average 49% of the patients change at least one

  15. Do healthier foods and diet patterns cost more than less healthy options? A systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Mayuree; Afshin, Ashkan; Singh, Gitanjali; Mozaffarian, Dariush

    2013-01-01

    Objective To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of prices of healthier versus less healthy foods/diet patterns while accounting for key sources of heterogeneity. Data sources MEDLINE (2000–2011), supplemented with expert consultations and hand reviews of reference lists and related citations. Design Studies reviewed independently and in duplicate were included if reporting mean retail price of foods or diet patterns stratified by healthfulness. We extracted, in duplicate, mean prices and their uncertainties of healthier and less healthy foods/diet patterns and rated the intensity of health differences for each comparison (range 1–10). Prices were adjusted for inflation and the World Bank purchasing power parity, and standardised to the international dollar (defined as US$1) in 2011. Using random effects models, we quantified price differences of healthier versus less healthy options for specific food types, diet patterns and units of price (serving, day and calorie). Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using I2 statistics. Results 27 studies from 10 countries met the inclusion criteria. Among food groups, meats/protein had largest price differences: healthier options cost $0.29/serving (95% CI $0.19 to $0.40) and $0.47/200 kcal ($0.42 to $0.53) more than less healthy options. Price differences per serving for healthier versus less healthy foods were smaller among grains ($0.03), dairy (−$0.004), snacks/sweets ($0.12) and fats/oils ($0.02; p<0.05 each) and not significant for soda/juice ($0.11, p=0.64). Comparing extremes (top vs bottom quantile) of food-based diet patterns, healthier diets cost $1.48/day ($1.01 to $1.95) and $1.54/2000 kcal ($1.15 to $1.94) more. Comparing nutrient-based patterns, price per day was not significantly different (top vs bottom quantile: $0.04; p=0.916), whereas price per 2000 kcal was $1.56 ($0.61 to $2.51) more. Adjustment for intensity of differences in healthfulness yielded similar results. Conclusions

  16. Numerical analysis of additive, Lévy and Feller processes with applications to option pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Schwab, Christoph; Reichmann, Oleg

    2010-01-01

    We review the design and analysis of multiresolution (wavelet) methods for the numerical solution of the Kolmogoroff equations arising, among others, in financial engineering when Lévy and Feller or Additive processes are used to model the dynamics of the risky assets. In particular, the Dirichlet and free boundary problems connected to barrier and American style contracts are specified and solution algorithms based on wavelet representations of the Feller Processes' Dirichlet Forms are prese...

  17. Noninvasive Strategy Based on Real-Time in Vivo Cataluminescence Monitoring for Clinical Breath Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Runkun; Huang, Wanting; Li, Gongke; Hu, Yufei

    2017-03-21

    The development of noninvasive methods for real-time in vivo analysis is of great significant, which provides powerful tools for medical research and clinical diagnosis. In the present work, we described a new strategy based on cataluminescence (CTL) for real-time in vivo clinical breath analysis. To illustrate such strategy, a homemade real-time CTL monitoring system characterized by coupling an online sampling device with a CTL sensor for sevoflurane (SVF) was designed, and a real-time in vivo method for the monitoring of SVF in exhaled breath was proposed. The accuracy of the method was evaluated by analyzing the real exhaled breath samples, and the results were compared with those obtained by GC/MS. The measured data obtained by the two methods were in good agreement. Subsequently, the method was applied to real-time monitoring of SVF in exhaled breath from rat models of the control group to investigate elimination pharmacokinetics. In order to further probe the potential of the method for clinical application, the elimination pharmacokinetics of SVF from rat models of control group, liver fibrosis group alcohol liver group, and nonalcoholic fatty liver group were monitored by the method. The raw data of pharmacokinetics of different groups were normalized and subsequently subjected to linear discriminant analysis (LDA). These data were transformed to canonical scores which were visualized as well-clustered with the classification accuracy of 100%, and the overall accuracy of leave-one-out cross-validation procedure is 88%, thereby indicating the utility of the potential of the method for liver disease diagnosis. Our strategy undoubtedly opens up a new door for real-time clinical analysis in a pain-free and noninvasive way and also guides a promising development direction for CTL.

  18. Polish Toxic Currency Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Gontarski

    2009-04-01

    call options confers an absolute obligation to deliver to the other party to the option contract a specified amount in euro at exchange rate set in advance. This latter position (short call means unlimited loss in the case of appreciation of euro. This was the situation faced by some Polish exporters in the second half of 2008 who in the middle of 2008 issued the most risky call options for banks and, thus, they bought a currency risk from the banks. Issuing any option always means also buying someone others risk, in exchange for a relatively small option premium which might trigger a relatively huge and actually unlimited risk of losses, if the assumed forecast does not come true. This is not the economic analysis of law to be relied on any more in respect of the cost of preventing the risk of loss being higher or lower than the amount of damage. The manager of an exporting company, unlike the speculator who sells options (buys risk, usually has no knowledge of financial engineering, which is essential to safely manage such excessive risk through creating a hedging portfolio.

  19. Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

  20. Comparative Analysis of Power Plant Options for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengying Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS extract heat from underground hot dry rock (HDR by first fracturing the HDR and then circulating a geofluid (typically water into it and bringing the heated geofluid to a power plant to generate electricity. This study focuses on analysis, examination, and comparison of leading geothermal power plant configurations with a geofluid temperature from 200 to 800 °C, and also analyzes the embodied energy of EGS surface power plants. The power generation analysis is focused on flash type cycles for using subcritical geofluid (<374 °C and expansion type cycles for using supercritical geofluid (>374 °C. Key findings of this study include: (i double-flash plants have 24.3%–29.0% higher geofluid effectiveness than single-flash ones, and 3%–10% lower specific embodied energy; (ii the expansion type plants have geofluid effectiveness > 750 kJ/kg, significantly higher than flash type plants (geofluid effectiveness < 300 kJ/kg and the specific embodied energy is lower; (iii to increase the turbine outlet vapor fraction from 0.75 to 0.90, we include superheating by geofluid but that reduces the geofluid effectiveness by 28.3%; (iv for geofluid temperatures above 650 °C, double-expansion plants have a 2% higher geofluid effectiveness and 5%–8% lower specific embodied energy than single-expansion ones.

  1. Model based analysis of real-time PCR data from DNA binding dye protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salibe Mariano C

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse transcription followed by real-time PCR is widely used for quantification of specific mRNA, and with the use of double-stranded DNA binding dyes it is becoming a standard for microarray data validation. Despite the kinetic information generated by real-time PCR, most popular analysis methods assume constant amplification efficiency among samples, introducing strong biases when amplification efficiencies are not the same. Results We present here a new mathematical model based on the classic exponential description of the PCR, but modeling amplification efficiency as a sigmoidal function of the product yield. The model was validated with experimental results and used for the development of a new method for real-time PCR data analysis. This model based method for real-time PCR data analysis showed the best accuracy and precision compared with previous methods when used for quantification of in-silico generated and experimental real-time PCR results. Moreover, the method is suitable for the analyses of samples with similar or dissimilar amplification efficiency. Conclusion The presented method showed the best accuracy and precision. Moreover, it does not depend on calibration curves, making it ideal for fully automated high-throughput applications.

  2. Integration of marine transport into the European Emissions Trading System. Environmental, economic and legal analysis of different options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeuerle, Tim [Rechtsanwaelte Zimmermann - Gretz - Trautmann - Baeuerle, Heidelberg (Germany); Graichen, Jakob; Meyer, Kristin; Seum, Stefan [Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin (Germany); Kulessa, Margareta [Mainz Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany); Oschinski, Matthias

    2010-05-15

    Marine vessels globally contribute to carbon dioxide emissions with approximately 3.3% (IMO 2009). Interna-tional ocean shipping has been growing significantly over recent years. To date international marine emissions are not part of the Kyoto obligations and the member states at IMO have not implemented instruments that would have limited or reduced the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from ships. The European Union has announced that if no international agreement including reduction targets for seaborne emissions has been approved by the UNFCCC by December 31, 2011, the EC is tasked to submit a proposal for including international marine transport in Euro-pean reduction targets and policy measures. An inclusion of international marine transport in the European Emis-sions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a likely scenario. The study investigates three options for integrating international ocean shipping into the EU ETS based on: a last period; the last distance travelled and the distance the cargo has travelled. Basing the system on a last period is superior to basing it on last trip or cargo in terms of environmental effectiveness. However, the system would cover vessel activities in international waters, even potentially between two non-European ports, and thus the legal feasi-bility of this challenge is discussed. Another element of the study is the analysis of the economic effects of the inte-gration of international seaborne greenhouse gas emissions into the EU ETS. Overall it can be concluded that the integration of international ocean shipping into the EU ETS is a legally and technically feasible option with no significantly negative or even beneficial economic effects. The extension to vessel activity in international waters secures adequate coverage and environmental effectiveness. This extension to vessel activity in international waters is not only a prerequisite for adequate emissions coverage, but is also associated with the least legal obstacles, is

  3. Twitter data analysis: temporal and term frequency analysis with real-time event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Garima; Joshi, Mansi; Sasikala, R.

    2017-11-01

    From the past few years, World Wide Web (www) has become a prominent and huge source for user generated content and opinionative data. Among various social media, Twitter gained popularity as it offers a fast and effective way of sharing users’ perspective towards various critical and other issues in different domain. As the data is hugely generated on cloud, it has opened doors for the researchers in the field of data science and analysis. There are various domains such as ‘Political’ domain, ‘Entertainment’ domain and ‘Business’ domain. Also there are various APIs that Twitter provides for developers 1) Search API, focus on the old tweets 2) Rest API, focuses on user details and allow to collect the user profile, friends and followers 3) Streaming API, which collects details like tweets, hashtags, geo locations. In our work we are accessing Streaming API in order to fetch real-time tweets for the dynamic happening event. For this we are focusing on ‘Entertainment’ domain especially ‘Sports’ as IPL-T20 is currently the trending on-going event. We are collecting these numerous amounts of tweets and storing them in MongoDB database where the tweets are stored in JSON document format. On this document we are performing time-series analysis and term frequency analysis using different techniques such as filtering, information extraction for text-mining that fulfils our objective of finding interesting moments for temporal data in the event and finding the ranking among the players or the teams based on popularity which helps people in understanding key influencers on the social media platform.

  4. Methodology for object-oriented real-time systems analysis and design: Software engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeffler, James D.

    1991-01-01

    Successful application of software engineering methodologies requires an integrated analysis and design life-cycle in which the various phases flow smoothly 'seamlessly' from analysis through design to implementation. Furthermore, different analysis methodologies often lead to different structuring of the system so that the transition from analysis to design may be awkward depending on the design methodology to be used. This is especially important when object-oriented programming is to be used for implementation when the original specification and perhaps high-level design is non-object oriented. Two approaches to real-time systems analysis which can lead to an object-oriented design are contrasted: (1) modeling the system using structured analysis with real-time extensions which emphasizes data and control flows followed by the abstraction of objects where the operations or methods of the objects correspond to processes in the data flow diagrams and then design in terms of these objects; and (2) modeling the system from the beginning as a set of naturally occurring concurrent entities (objects) each having its own time-behavior defined by a set of states and state-transition rules and seamlessly transforming the analysis models into high-level design models. A new concept of a 'real-time systems-analysis object' is introduced and becomes the basic building block of a series of seamlessly-connected models which progress from the object-oriented real-time systems analysis and design system analysis logical models through the physical architectural models and the high-level design stages. The methodology is appropriate to the overall specification including hardware and software modules. In software modules, the systems analysis objects are transformed into software objects.

  5. Manager’s Flexibility & Cancellation Option: Insights of a Case Study in the Latin American Oil Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Ridolfo Neto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This article focused on the main business insights of the use of Real Options valuation analysis in the eyes of a finance professional. It used a case study of an investment opportunity in the oil and gas field services industry in Latin America to discuss the methodology implementation and its insights. As a secondary objective, it discussed the insights and options embedded in this investment opportunity.Methodology: The investment opportunity was examined using the Real Options Analysis (ROA framework and the results compared to the traditional methodology of Net Present Value. The valuation technique was performed as if it had been applied at the time the project was approved.Findings: The most important of Real Option valuation is not the results, but how one arrives at them. After the project value is calculated and the project approved or not, the Real Option valuation requires and supports the monitoring of the project. By understanding how the options are created, managers can make better decisions about the project after it was approved.Practical implications: A relevant contribution from the study was the discussion, as a practitioner, of the methodology implementation in a real world corporation. Originality & value: The case study evaluated two types of real options: first, the effect of an option to cancel a contract that was assessed from the perspective of the client contracting the project; and second, the option to abandon and defer, from the perspective of the company that will perform the investment to provide the services. By incorporating the cost of the put option that the company puts forth for the client (cancellation option it reduces the project value by giving flexibility to its clients.

  6. Best option for preoperative biliary drainage in Klatskin tumor: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zengwei; Yang, Yuan; Meng, Wenbo; Li, Xun

    2017-10-01

    The operative treatment combined with preoperative biliary drainage (PBD) has been established as a safe Klatskin tumor (KT) treatment strategy. However, there has always been a dispute for the preferred technique for PBD technique. This meta-analysis was conducted to compare the biliary drainage-related cholangitis, pancreatitis, hemorrhage, and the success rates of palliative relief of cholestasis between percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) and endoscopic biliary drainage (EBD), to identify the best technique in the management of KT.PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched systematically for prospective or retrospective studies reporting the biliary drainage-related cholangitis, pancreatitis, hemorrhage, and the success rates of palliative relief of cholestasis in patients with KT. A meta-analysis was performed, using the fixed or random-effect model, with Review Manager 5.3.PTBD was associated with lower risk of cholangitis (risk ratio [RR] = 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36-0.67; P < .00001), particularly in patients with Bismuth-Corlette type II, III, IV KT (RR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.33-0.77; P = .05). Compared with EBD, PTBD was also associated with a lower risk of pancreatitis (RR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.17-0.69; P = 0.003) and with higher successful rates of palliative relief of cholestasis (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.10-1.31; P < .0001). The incidence of hemorrhage was similar in these 2 groups (RR 1.29, 95% CI: 0.51-3.27; P = .59). The risk of biliary drainage-related cholangitis (RR = 1.96, 95% CI: 0.96-4.01; P = .06) and pancreatitis (RR = 1.62, 95% CI: 0.76-3.47; P = .21) was similar between endoscopic nasobiliary drainage groups and biliary stenting.In patients with type II or type III or IV KT who need to have PBD, PTBD should be performed as an initial method of biliary drainage in terms of reducing the incidence of procedure related cholangitis, pancreatitis, and improving the rates

  7. Health services financing and delivery: analysis of policy options for Dubai, United Arab Emirates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidi S

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Samer Hamidi School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates Introduction: A national health account (NHA provides a systematic approach to mapping the flow of health sector funds within a specified health system over a defined time period. This article attempts to present a profile of health system financing in Dubai, United Arab Emirates using data from NHAs, and to compare the functional structures of financing schemes in Dubai with schemes in Qatar and selected member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD. Methods: The author analyzed secondary data published in NHAs of Dubai and Qatar and data collected by the OECD countries and publicly available from Eurostat (Statistical Office of the European Union of 25 OECD countries for comparative analysis. All health financing indicators used were as defined in the international System of Health Accounts (SHA. Results: In Dubai, spending on inpatient care was the highest-costing component, with 30% of current health expenditures (CHE. Spending on outpatient care was the second highest-costing component and accounted for about 23% of the CHE. Household spending accounted for about 22% of CHE (equivalent to US$187 per capita, compared to an average of 20% of CHE of OECD countries. Dubai spent 0.02% of CHE on long-term care, compared to an average of 11% of CHE of OECD countries. Dubai spent about 6% of CHE on prevention and public health services, compared to an average of 3.2% of CHE of OECD countries. Conclusion: The findings point to potential opportunities for growth and improvement in several health policy issues in Dubai, including increasing focus and funding of preventive services; shifting from inpatient care to day surgery, outpatient, and home-based services and strengthening long-term care; and introducing cost-containment measures for pharmaceuticals. More investment in the translation of

  8. Assumption-free analysis of quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramakers, Christian; Ruijter, Jan M.; Deprez, Ronald H. Lekanne; Moorman, Antoon F. M.

    2003-01-01

    Quantification of mRNAs using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) by monitoring the product formation with the fluorescent dye SYBR Green I is being extensively used in neurosciences, developmental biology, and medical diagnostics. Most PCR data analysis procedures assume that the PCR

  9. Stacker’s Crane Position Fixing Based on Real Time Image Processing and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kmeid Saad

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study illustrates the usage of stacker cranes and image processing in automated warehouse systems. The aim is to use real time image processing and analysis for a stacker’s crane position fixing in order to use it as a pick-up and delivery system (P/D, to be controlled by a programmable logic controller unit (PLC.

  10. Non-Traditional Socio-Mathematical Norms in Undergraduate Real Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawkins, Paul Christian

    2009-01-01

    This study builds upon the framework of classroom norms (Cobb, Wood, & Yackel, 1993) and socio-mathematical norms (Cobb & Yackel, 1996) to understand how non-traditional socio-mathematical norms influence student reasoning and transitions to advanced mathematical thinking in undergraduate real analysis. The research involves a qualitative…

  11. Using a Wiki to Enhance Cooperative Learning in a Real Analysis Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Elisha

    2009-01-01

    This article describes how the author used a wiki-based website in a real analysis course, and assesses its effectiveness. The wiki was used to post course materials, maintain a forum, enable students to write collaborative projects, and enable students to develop a glossary of important terms. The wiki proved to be very successful; it facilitated…

  12. Static probabilistic timing analysis for real-time systems using random replacement caches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altmeyer, S.; Cucu-Grosjean, L.; Davis, R.I.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate static probabilistic timing analysis (SPTA) for single processor real-time systems that use a cache with an evict-on-miss random replacement policy. We show that previously published formulae for the probability of a cache hit can produce results that are optimistic and

  13. Protein Analysis Using Real-Time PCR Instrumentation: Incorporation in an Integrated, Inquiry-Based Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southard, Jonathan N.

    2014-01-01

    Instrumentation for real-time PCR is used primarily for amplification and quantitation of nucleic acids. The capability to measure fluorescence while controlling temperature in multiple samples can also be applied to the analysis of proteins. Conformational stability and changes in stability due to ligand binding are easily assessed. Protein…

  14. Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K. [University of Strathclyde, Glasgow (United Kingdom). Power Systems Research Group

    2004-07-01

    Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

  15. Model-based schedulability analysis of safety critical hard real-time Java programs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgholm, Thomas; Kragh-Hansen, Henrik; Olsen, Petur

    2008-01-01

    has been implemented in a tool, named SARTS, successfully used to verify the schedulability of a real-time sorting machine consisting of two periodic and two sporadic tasks. SARTS has also been applied on a number of smaller examples to investigate properties of our approach.......In this paper, we present a novel approach to schedulability analysis of Safety Critical Hard Real-Time Java programs. The approach is based on a translation of programs, written in the Safety Critical Java profile introduced in [21] for the Java Optimized Processor [18], to timed automata models...

  16. An analysis of flux-split algorithms for Euler's equations with real gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, B.; Walters, R. W.

    1987-01-01

    An analysis of flux-splitting procedures for the solution of Euler's equations with real gas effects is presented. An alternative real-gas flux-splitting is derived which can easily be implemented into existing codes. This approach, which takes the form of an 'equivalent' gamma representation is not an ad hoc model, but is based on theoretical considerations. Details of this method with the Steger-Warming and Van Leer flux vector splittings and the Roe flux-difference splitting are given. Applications of the method to several high Mach number, high temperature flows are presented for one and two space dimensions.

  17. Real-Time Analysis and Forecasting of Multisite River Flow Using a Distributed Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingdong Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A spatial distributed hydrological forecasting system was developed to promote the analysis of river flow dynamic state in a large basin. The research presented the real-time analysis and forecasting of multisite river flow in the Nakdong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model with radar rainfall forecast data. A real-time calibration algorithm of hydrological distributed model was proposed to investigate the particular relationship between the water storage and basin discharge. Demonstrate the approach of simulating multisite river flow using a distributed hydrological model couple with real-time calibration and forecasting of multisite river flow with radar rainfall forecasts data. The hydrographs and results exhibit that calibrated flow simulations are very approximate to the flow observation at all sites and the accuracy of forecasting flow is gradually decreased with lead times extending from 1 hr to 3 hrs. The flow forecasts are lower than the flow observation which is likely caused by the low estimation of radar rainfall forecasts. The research has well demonstrated that the distributed hydrological model is readily applicable for multisite real-time river flow analysis and forecasting in a large basin.

  18. Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shivanjli; Fergus, John

    2017-01-01

    To address the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) challenge, NASA is developing and demonstrating trajectory-based departure automation under a collaborative effort with the FAA and industry known Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2). ATD-2 builds upon and integrates previous NASA research capabilities that include the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC), and the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) capability. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users of the tools across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. A real time dashboard was developed to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. In addition to shared situational awareness, the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial proposed set of metrics. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017: Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT). The architecture of implementing such a tool as well as potential uses are presented for operations at CLT. Metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of system delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure

  19. The Impact on Family Functioning of Social Media Use by Depressed Adolescents: A Qualitative Analysis of the Family Options Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Andrew J; Knight, Tess; Germanov, Galit; Benstead, Michelle Lisa; Joseph, Claire Ingrid; Poole, Lucinda

    2015-01-01

    Adolescent depression is a prevalent mental health problem, which can have a major impact on family cohesion. In such circumstances, excessive use of the Internet by adolescents may exacerbate family conflict and lack of cohesion. The current study aims to explore these patterns within an intervention study for depressed adolescents. The current study draws upon data collected from parents within the family options randomized controlled trial that examined family based interventions for adolescent depression (12-18 years old) in Melbourne, Australia (2012-2014). Inclusion in the trial required adolescents to meet diagnostic criteria for a major depressive disorder via the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Childhood Disorders. The transcripts of sessions were examined using qualitative thematic analysis. The transcribed sessions consisted of 56 h of recordings in total from 39 parents who took part in the interventions. The thematic analysis explored parental perceptions of their adolescent's use of social media (SM) and access to Internet content, focusing on the possible relationship between adolescent Internet use and the adolescent's depressive disorder. Two overarching themes emerged as follows: the sense of loss of parental control over the family environment and parents' perceived inability to protect their adolescent from material encountered on the Internet and social interactions via SM. Parents within the context of family based treatments felt that prolonged exposure to SM exposed their already vulnerable child to additional stressors and risks. The thematic analysis uncovered a sense of parental despair and lack of control, which is consistent with their perception of SM and the Internet as relentless and threatening to their parental authority and family cohesion.

  20. The impact on family functioning of social media use by depressed adolescents: a qualitative analysis of the Family Options Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew James Lewis

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Adolescent depression is a prevalent mental health problem, which can have a major impact on family cohesion. In such circumstances, excessive use of the Internet by adolescents may exacerbate family conflict and lack of cohesion. The current study aims to explore these patterns within an intervention study for depressed adolescents.Method: The current study draws upon data collected within the Family Options randomized controlled trial that examined family-based interventions for adolescent depression (12-18 years old in Melbourne (2012-2014. Inclusion in the trial required meeting diagnosis for a Major depressive disorder via the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Childhood Disorders (KID-SCID. The transcripts of sessions from 7 group treatments were examined using qualitative thematic analysis. The transcribed sessions consisted of 56 hours of recordings in total from 39 parents who took part in the interventions.Results: The thematic analysis explored parental perceptions of their adolescent’s use of social media and access to Internet content, focusing on the possible relationship between adolescent Internet use and the adolescent’s depressive disorder. Two overarching themes emerged: The sense of loss of parental control over the family environment, and parents’ perceived inability to protect their adolescent from material encountered on the Internet and social interactions via social media.Conclusions: The excessive use of social media often interacted with cyber-bullying and altered the adolescent’s understanding of friendship. Parents within the context of family based treatments felt that prolonged exposure to social media exposed their already vulnerable child to cyber-bullying. The thematic analysis uncovered a sense of parental despair and lack of control, which is consistent with their perception of social media and the internet as relentless and threatening to their parental authority and family cohesion.

  1. Examining mutable reform options for urban schools with multilevel analysis in the National Educational Longitudinal Study:88

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, John Kyle

    2000-11-01

    The present study examined the effects of science course taking and school urbanicity on students' science achievement levels. More specifically, this study analyzed the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS:88) with multilevel techniques to investigate mutable reform options for urban schools in the area of science achievement. This study provided a unique insight into current research because all analyses were conducted with both ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and multilevel modeling techniques. Results from the comparison of OLS and multilevel techniques showed little effect on either overestimation or underestimation between the OLS weighted sample and the multilevel analysis. Although the differences between these two analyses were small, the multilevel techniques were optimized when the differences between schools was largest. Results from the multilevel and weighted analyses produced large differences when compared against the unweighted analysis. The unweighted sample consistently overestimated the coefficients of slope for each of the predictor variables. Because of these findings, researchers should be strongly cautioned against interpreting analyses run with the NELS:88 dataset without a weighted sample or without multilevel techniques. The results from the multiple regression analysis in both multilevel modeling and weighted OLS indicated that students who had parents who attended a school event, were not afraid to ask questions in science class, spent more time on homework each week, did not attend a school where science was taught in a non-English language, and had parents who belonged to a parent/teacher organization scored higher in terms of student science achievement than did their urban counterparts who did not meet these qualifications. From these results, several recommendations were made for schools concerning ways they could improve science education, including fostering attitudes of inquiry in science, increasing the

  2. Analysis of China's real estate prices and macroeconomy based on evolutionary co-spectral method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between the real estate market and the macroeconomic environment of China by use of dynamic coherence function based on co-spectral analysis. Design/methodology/approach: Through a theoretical perspective, the dynamic interrelationship among economic variables at different time intervals (both long and short terms is analyzed. Findings: The empirical results show that China’s real estate market features a high coherence with the change of the long-term interest rate, employment rate and money supply, while there is a moderate coherence between the real estate market and the inflation rate and economic growth rate, and the coherence between the short-term rate of interest and the real estate market is the lowest. Research implications: Previous researches have some shortcomings. They do not consider the dependence between nonlinear series, but the latter is crucial to avoid the deviation of results. In this paper, we proposed a new method of experience to overcome these shortcomings. Originality/value: The paper provides a reasonable explanation accordingly to different coherences between the real estate market and the macroeconomic variables.

  3. Real-Time Shop-Floor Production Performance Analysis Method for the Internet of Manufacturing Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingfeng Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Typical challenges that manufacturing enterprises are facing now are compounded by lack of timely, accurate, and consistent information of manufacturing resources. As a result, it is difficult to analyze the real-time production performance for the shop-floor. In this paper, the definition and overall architecture of the internet of manufacturing things is presented to provide a new paradigm by extending the techniques of internet of things (IoT to manufacturing field. Under this architecture, the real-time primitive events which occurred at different manufacturing things such as operators, machines, pallets, key materials, and so forth can be easily sensed. Based on these distributed primitive events, a critical event model is established to automatically analyze the real-time production performance. Here, the up-level production performance analysis is regarded as a series of critical events, and the real-time value of each critical event can be easily calculated according to the logical and sequence relationships among these multilevel events. Finally, a case study is used to illustrate how to apply the designed methods to analyze the real-time production performance.

  4. The developmental stage of strongyle eggs affects the outcome of real-time PCR analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roust, Tina; Haakansson, Ida T.; Rhod, Maria

    investigated whether the developmental stage of strongyle eggs affects real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results. Mixed species strongyle eggs were obtained from the faeces of a naturally infected horse. Eggs were isolated and placed in microtiter plates with demineralised water. A total of 25 wells...... are significant sources of error in studies based on quantitative real-time PCR analysis performed. For storage more than three days, eggs should be killed and kept on ethanol for further analysis....... as cycle of threshold (Ct) values. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences between days. Results illustrated a significant increase in PCR yield after three days, which was associated with beginning embryonation of the eggs. In conclusion, storage time and developmental stage of strongyle egg...

  5. Development of a new real-time MCE-based quantitative analysis system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Mingqiang; Sun, Fengrong; Yao, Gui-hua

    2009-10-01

    The quantitative analysis system for real time myocardial contrast echocardiography can measure the values of A(microvascular cross-sectional area or myocardial blood volume)and β(myocardial microbubble velocity), AÂ.β(myocardial blood flow), A-EER (endo-epi ratio of A ), β-EER and AÂ.β-EER from the signal intensity of real-time 2-D grayscale images and power Doppler images, draw the time-intensity curves to indicate the variation of the intensity of micro-bubbles scattering in subendocardial layer and subepicardial layer with the varying of myocardial segments, and estimate the hemodynamic parameters by nonlinear regression analysis. The system also conformed to the digital imaging and communications in medicine (DICOM) standard and could be integrated into the picture archiving and communication system (PACS). The examples of clinical study indicated the clinical effectiveness of the system and the reliability of the quantitative analysis techniques employed in the system.

  6. A multi-criteria analysis of options for energy recovery from municipal solid waste in India and the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yap, H Y; Nixon, J D

    2015-12-01

    Energy recovery from municipal solid waste plays a key role in sustainable waste management and energy security. However, there are numerous technologies that vary in suitability for different economic and social climates. This study sets out to develop and apply a multi-criteria decision making methodology that can be used to evaluate the trade-offs between the benefits, opportunities, costs and risks of alternative energy from waste technologies in both developed and developing countries. The technologies considered are mass burn incineration, refuse derived fuel incineration, gasification, anaerobic digestion and landfill gas recovery. By incorporating qualitative and quantitative assessments, a preference ranking of the alternative technologies is produced. The effect of variations in decision criteria weightings are analysed in a sensitivity analysis. The methodology is applied principally to compare and assess energy recovery from waste options in the UK and India. These two countries have been selected as they could both benefit from further development of their waste-to-energy strategies, but have different technical and socio-economic challenges to consider. It is concluded that gasification is the preferred technology for the UK, whereas anaerobic digestion is the preferred technology for India. We believe that the presented methodology will be of particular value for waste-to-energy decision-makers in both developed and developing countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Results of a paired catchment analysis of forest thinning in Turkey in relation to forest management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurtseven, Ibrahim; Serengil, Yusuf; Gökbulak, Ferhat; Şengönül, Kamil; Ozhan, Süleyman; Kılıç, Umit; Uygur, Betül; Ozçelik, Mehmet Said

    2018-03-15

    Adaptation to climate change has become a more serious concern as IPCC assessment reports estimate a rise of up to 2°C in average global temperatures by the end of the century. Several recently published studies have underlined the importance of forest management in mitigating the impacts of climate change and in supporting the adaptation capacity of the ecosystem. This study focuses on the role of water-related forest services in this adaptation process. The effects of forestry practices on streamflow can best be determined by paired watershed analysis. The impact of two cutting treatments on runoff was analyzed by a paired experimental watershed study in the Belgrade Forest and the results were evaluated in relation to similar experiments conducted around the world. Forest thinning treatments at 11% and 18% were carried out in a mature oak-beech forest ecosystem over different time periods. Although the thinning increased the runoff statistically, the amount of surplus water remained <5% of the annual water yield. Evidently, the hydrologic response of the watersheds was low due to the reduced intensity of the timber harvest. Finally, the results were combined with those of global studies on thinning, clearcutting and species conversion with the aim of formulating management options for adaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessment of solar options for small power systems applications. Volume II. Identification and characterization of concepts for analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laity, W.W.; Aase, D.T.; Apley, W.J.; Bird, S.P.; Drost, M.K.; Williams, T.A.

    1980-06-01

    The primary purpose of this study is to provide DOE with an independent, objective assessment of the principal solar thermal conversion concepts that have the potential for achieving commercial success as small electric power sytems in the 1- to 10-MWe range. Seven generic types of collectors, together with associated subsystems for electric power generation, were considered in this study. The collectors can be classified into three categories: (1) two-axis tracking (with compound curvature reflecting surfaces); (2) one-axis tracking (with single-curvature reflecting surfaces); and (3) nontracking (with low-concentration reflecting surfaces). These collectors can be combined with energy transport, energy storage, and power conversion subsystems in a wide variety of ways to formulate conceptual systems for electric power generation. In this study, attention was restricted to configurations that are potentially suitable for development as small power systems (1 to 10 MWe) in the long term (1990 to 2000), with initial commercialization by the mid-1980s. Cogeneration and total energy systems were beyond the scope of this study. All seven types of collectors were analyzed in conceptual system configurations with Rankine-cycle engines. Because they can operate at particularly high concentration ratios, two of the collectors (the Point Focus Central Receiver and the Point Focus Distributed Receiver) were also analyzed with Brayton-cycle engines. In addition, the latter of the two was analyzed with Stirling-cycle engines. With these engine options, 10 conceptual systems were formulated for analysis. Results are presented in detail. (WHK)

  9. Strategic Investment: Real Options and Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.T.J. Smit (Han); L. Trigeorgis (Lenos)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractCorporate finance and corporate strategy have long been seen as different sides of the same coin. Though both focus on the same broad problem, investment decision-making, the gap between the two sides--and between theory and practice--remains embarrassingly large. This book synthesizes

  10. Pregnancy after radical trachelectomy: a real option?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boss, E.A.; Golde, R.J.T. van; Beerendonk, C.C.M.; Massuger, L.F.A.G.

    2005-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Radical trachelectomy is a surgical procedure for early-stage cervical carcinoma with preservation of the childbearing capacity. The current article presents a review of studies describing the results and complications of pregnancies after this procedure. METHODS: Sixteen studies were

  11. Acquiring Technical Data With Renewable Real Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    available.1 The required inputs for this model are: the year-by-year probability of being in a buy position for spare parts , the forecasted buy quantity of...probability of need for each year should be regularly re- evaluated based on changes in the projected forecast for spare parts procurement. For example...data needed for life cycle sustainment functions such as maintenance or competitive spare parts procurement, but this expectation is more complicated

  12. Ocular and cardiac artifact rejection for real-time analysis in MEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, Lukas; Dammers, Jürgen; Roberts, Timothy P L; Shah, N Jon

    2014-08-15

    Recently, magnetoencephalography (MEG) based real-time brain computing interfaces (BCI) have been developed to enable novel and promising methods for neuroscience research. It is well known that artifact rejection prior to source localization largely enhances the localization accuracy. However, many BCI approaches neglect real-time artifact removal due to its time consuming process. The method (referred to as ocular and cardiac artifact rejection for real-time analysis, OCARTA) is based on constrained independent component analysis (cICA), where a priori information of the underlying source signals is used to optimize and accelerate signal decomposition. Thereby, prior information is incorporated by using the subject's individual cardiac and ocular activity. The algorithm automatically uses different separation strategies depending on the underlying source activity. OCARTA was tested and applied to data from three different but most commonly used MEG systems (4D-Neuroimaging, VSM MedTech Inc. and Elekta Neuromag). Ocular and cardiac artifacts were effectively reduced within one iteration at a time delay of 1ms performed on a standard PC (Intel Core i5-2410M). The artifact rejection results achieved with OCARTA are in line with the results reported for offline ICA-based artifact rejection methods. Due to the fast and subject-specific signal decomposition the new approach introduced here is capable of real-time ocular and cardiac artifact rejection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Writing/Thinking in Real Time: Digital Video and Corpus Query Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Park, Kwanghyun

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The advance of digital video technology in the past two decades facilitates empirical investigation of learning in real time. The focus of this paper is the combined use of real-time digital video and a networked linguistic corpus for exploring the ways in which these technologies enhance our capability to investigate the cognitive process of learning. A perennial challenge to research using digital video (e.g., screen recordings has been the method for interfacing the captured behavior with the learners’ cognition. An exploratory proposal in this paper is that with an additional layer of data (i.e., corpus search queries, analyses of real-time data can be extended to provide an explicit representation of learner’s cognitive processes. This paper describes the method and applies it to an area of SLA, specifically writing, and presents an in-depth, moment-by-moment analysis of an L2 writer’s composing process. The findings show that the writer’s composing process is fundamentally developmental, and that it is facilitated in her dialogue-like interaction with an artifact (i.e., the corpus. The analysis illustrates the effectiveness of the method for capturing learners’ cognition, suggesting that L2 learning can be more fully explicated by interpreting real-time data in concert with investigation of corpus search queries.

  14. Risk Analysis and Management for Real-time Flood Control Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Zhong, P. A.; Zhang, Y.; Yeh, W. W. G.

    2016-12-01

    We propose a risk analysis model for the real-time flood control operation of a complex flood control system and a multiobjective risk management model for the real-time flood control optimal operation of a reservoir. The risk analysis model is established by decomposing the original system into three basic subsystems. Risk analysis of each basic subsystem is carried-out independently by a submodel. The results from all subsystems are integrated by the Copula theory to determine the overall risk of the entire flood control system for real-time operation. The multiobjective risk management model determines the optimal operation schedules that satisfy the given flood control objectives and minimizes the overall risks at the same time. The two objectives considered in this study are: 1) to minimize the risk of the reservoir and its upstream area and 2) to minimize the risk of the downstream city protection. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II is used to solve the multiobjective model and generate the Pareto optimal front. Then a comprehensive filter method is proposed to select several representative non-dominated solutions from the Pareto optimal front for the decision makers to make flood control management. The proposed models are applied to the flood control system in the middle reaches of the Huaihe river basin in China. The results show that the proposed method can provide a practical way to estimate the risks in real-time flood control operation of a complex flood control system and provide a new way to conduct the real-time flood control optimal operation and risk management of a reservoir.

  15. Analysis of conditional gene deletion using probe based Real-Time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weis, Britta; Schmidt, Joachim; Lyko, Frank; Linhart, Heinz G

    2010-10-15

    Conditional gene deletion using Cre-lox recombination is frequently used in mouse genetics; however recombination is frequently incomplete, resulting in a mixture of cells containing the functional (2lox) allele and the truncated (1lox) allele. Conventional analysis of 1lox/2lox allele ratios using Southern Blotting is time consuming, requires relatively large amounts of DNA and has a low sensitivity. We therefore evaluated the utility of Real-Time PCR to measure 1lox/2lox allele ratios. We show that SYBR Green based Real-Time PCR analysis of 1lox/2lox allele ratios can generate erroneous peaks in the melting curve that are possibly caused by alternate hybridization products promoted by the palindromic loxP sequence motif. Since abnormal melting curves frequently contribute to dismissal of SYBR Green based data, we developed a convenient method with improved specificity that avoids such erroneous signals. Our data show that probe based Real-Time PCR, using a universal probe directed against the loxP site, can accurately detect small differences in 1lox/2lox allele ratios. We also validated this method in Fabpl4× at -132-Cre transgenic mice, measuring 1lox/2lox allele ratios that are in agreement with published data. Our Real-Time PCR protocol requires the use of one probe only for all reactions. Also the universal probe established in our assay is generally applicable to any experiment analyzing Cre-lox recombination efficiency, such that only primer sequences have to be adapted. Our data show that 1lox/2lox allele ratios are detected with high accuracy and high sensitivity with Real-Time PCR analysis using a probe directed against the loxP site. Due to the generally applicable probe the assay is conveniently adapted to all models of Cre-lox mediated gene deletion.

  16. Analysis of conditional gene deletion using probe based Real-Time PCR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyko Frank

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Conditional gene deletion using Cre-lox recombination is frequently used in mouse genetics; however recombination is frequently incomplete, resulting in a mixture of cells containing the functional (2lox allele and the truncated (1lox allele. Conventional analysis of 1lox/2lox allele ratios using Southern Blotting is time consuming, requires relatively large amounts of DNA and has a low sensitivity. We therefore evaluated the utility of Real-Time PCR to measure 1lox/2lox allele ratios. Results We show that SYBR Green based Real-Time PCR analysis of 1lox/2lox allele ratios can generate erroneous peaks in the melting curve that are possibly caused by alternate hybridization products promoted by the palindromic loxP sequence motif. Since abnormal melting curves frequently contribute to dismissal of SYBR Green based data, we developed a convenient method with improved specificity that avoids such erroneous signals. Our data show that probe based Real-Time PCR, using a universal probe directed against the loxP site, can accurately detect small differences in 1lox/2lox allele ratios. We also validated this method in Fabpl4× at -132-Cre transgenic mice, measuring 1lox/2lox allele ratios that are in agreement with published data. Our Real-Time PCR protocol requires the use of one probe only for all reactions. Also the universal probe established in our assay is generally applicable to any experiment analyzing Cre-lox recombination efficiency, such that only primer sequences have to be adapted. Conclusions Our data show that 1lox/2lox allele ratios are detected with high accuracy and high sensitivity with Real-Time PCR analysis using a probe directed against the loxP site. Due to the generally applicable probe the assay is conveniently adapted to all models of Cre-lox mediated gene deletion.

  17. Evaluation of capital investment in thermoelectric generation projects in the Brazilian electric sector using the real options theory; Avaliacao de investimento de capital em projetos de geracao termoeletrica no setor eletrico brasileiro usando teoria das opcoes reais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Alessandro de Lima

    2000-04-01

    In the Brazilian Electric System about 92% of the generated electricity is of hydraulic origin. Today the system is operating practically in the limit of your capacity. Solutions of short time to make possible the expansion of the offer of electricity generation go by the installation of cycle combining thermal using natural gas as fuel. In this dissertation, it was used the real options theory to evaluate generation assets in the Brazilian electricity sector. In Brazil, central operator dispatches a flexible thermal when the electricity spot price is larger than the operation costs. The operation decision is like an European call, where underlying asset is the electricity and the strike price is the operation cost. The value of the capacity is the sum of all decisions to operate the thermal unit, in the remaining life of unit. It was used Monte Carlo Simulation and Dynamic Programming to evaluate this model. The problem is divided in two parts. In the first part, the base case is fixed and evaluated and the expected NPV and project risk are calculated in function of contract level. In the second part, many sensibilities are done in relation to base case. At the end, the value of flexibility is calculated for each contract level. (author)

  18. Clinical Impact and Implication of Real-Time Oscillation Analysis for Language Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, Hiroshi; Kamada, Kyousuke; Kapeller, Christoph; Prueckl, Robert; Takeuchi, Fumiya; Hiroshima, Satoru; Anei, Ryogo; Guger, Christoph

    2017-01-01

    We developed a functional brain analysis system that enabled us to perform real-time task-related electrocorticography (ECoG) and evaluated its potential in clinical practice. We hypothesized that high gamma activity (HGA) mapping would provide better spatial and temporal resolution with high signal-to-noise ratios. Seven awake craniotomy patients were evaluated. ECoG was recorded during language tasks using subdural grids, and HGA (60-170 Hz) maps were obtained in real time. The patients also underwent electrocortical stimulation (ECS) mapping to validate the suspected functional locations on HGA mapping. The results were compared and calculated to assess the sensitivity and specificity of HGA mapping. For reference, bedside HGA-ECS mapping was performed in 5 epilepsy patients. HGA mapping demonstrated functional brain areas in real time and was comparable with ECS mapping. Sensitivity and specificity for the language area were 90.1% ± 11.2% and 90.0% ± 4.2%, respectively. Most HGA-positive areas were consistent with ECS-positive regions in both groups, and there were no statistical between-group differences. Although this study included a small number of subjects, it showed real-time HGA mapping with the same setting and tasks under different conditions. This study demonstrates the clinical feasibility of real-time HGA mapping. Real-time HGA mapping enabled simple and rapid detection of language functional areas in awake craniotomy. The mapping results were highly accurate, although the mapping environment was noisy. Further studies of HGA mapping may provide the potential to elaborate complex brain functions and networks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Near-Real time analysis of seismic data of active volcanoes: Software implementations of time sequence data analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Vila

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the development and applications of a software-based quality control system that monitors volcano activity in near-real time. On the premise that external seismic manifestations provide information directly related to the internal status of a volcano, here we analyzed variations in background seismic noise. By continuous analysis of variations in seismic waveforms, we detected clear indications of changes in the internal status. The application of this method to data recorded in Villarrica (Chile and Tungurahua (Ecuador volcanoes demonstrates that it is suitable to be used as a forecasting tool. A recent application of this developed software-based quality control to the real-time monitoring of Teide – Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain anticipated external episodes of volcanic activity, thus corroborating the advantages and capacity of the methodology when implemented as an automatic real-time procedure.

  20. Detecting spatial patterns of rivermouth processes using a geostatistical framework for near-real-time analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenzhao; Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bailey, Barbara; Carlson Mazur, Martha L.; Schaeffer, Jeff; Minsker, Barbara

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a geospatial analysis framework and software to interpret water-quality sampling data from towed undulating vehicles in near-real time. The framework includes data quality assurance and quality control processes, automated kriging interpolation along undulating paths, and local hotspot and cluster analyses. These methods are implemented in an interactive Web application developed using the Shiny package in the R programming environment to support near-real time analysis along with 2- and 3-D visualizations. The approach is demonstrated using historical sampling data from an undulating vehicle deployed at three rivermouth sites in Lake Michigan during 2011. The normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of the interpolation averages approximately 10% in 3-fold cross validation. The results show that the framework can be used to track river plume dynamics and provide insights on mixing, which could be related to wind and seiche events.

  1. Pricing and Applications of Digital Installment Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierangelo Ciurlia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For its theoretical interest and strong impact on financial markets, option valuation is considered one of the cornerstones of contemporary mathematical finance. This paper specifically studies the valuation of exotic options with digital payoff and flexible payment plan. By means of the Incomplete Fourier Transform, the pricing problem is solved in order to find integral representations of the upfront price for European call and put options. Several applications in the areas of corporate finance, insurance, and real options are discussed. Finally, a new type of digital derivative named supercash option is introduced and some payment schemes are also presented.

  2. Compression Real-time Elastography for Evaluation of Salivary Gland Lesions: A Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Changtian; Zhang, Changsheng; Li, Nan; Li, Junlai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the performance of compression real-time elastography for differentiation between benign and malignant salivary gland lesions. A systematic literature database search was conducted. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) values for real-time elastography were analyzed. Summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also constructed. Heterogeneity was evaluated by χ(2) and I(2) tests. I(2) > 50% or P analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical utility of real-time elastography. When heterogeneity was found, subgroup analyses were used to explore the sources of heterogeneity. A sensitivity analysis was conducted by omitting 1 study at a time and examining the influence of each individual study on the overall results. Nine articles with 581 lesions were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of real-time elastography for differentiation between benign and malignant lesions were 76% (95% confidence interval [CI], 65%-85%; 95% prediction interval [PI], 29%-95%) and 73% (95% CI, 62%-81%; 95% PI, 24%-96%), respectively. The LR+ and LR- were 2.81 (95% CI, 1.79-4.39; 95% PI, 0.65-12.16) and 0.33 (95% CI, 0.20-0.55; 95% PI, 0.07-1.69). The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.84). No publication bias was detected, according to the Deek funnel plot (P = .51). The Fagan plot showed that when pretest probabilities were 25%, 50%, and 75%, positive posttest probabilities were 48%, 74%, and 89%, and negative probabilities were 10%, 25%, and 50%. Real-time elastography is a novel supplementary adjunct to conventional sonography for evaluation of salivary gland lesions. However, its overall accuracy is less promising, and biopsy may still be necessary in routine clinical practice. © 2016 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

  3. Throughput Analysis for a High-Performance FPGA-Accelerated Real-Time Search Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim Vanderbauwhede

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an FPGA design for the relevancy computation part of a high-throughput real-time search application. The application matches terms in a stream of documents against a static profile, held in off-chip memory. We present a mathematical analysis of the throughput of the application and apply it to the problem of scaling the Bloom filter used to discard nonmatches.

  4. Real time eye blink noise removal from EEG signals using morphological component analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Matiko, Joseph W.; Beeby, Stephen; Tudor, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a method of removing the noise caused by eye blinks from an electroencephalogram (EEG) signal in real time based on morphological component analysis (MCA). This method sparsely represents both the eye blink and the EEG signal basis matrices using a Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT). This approach has two main advantages: 1) fast computation of the estimation of the signal coefficients using the basis pursuit algorithm 2) less memory requirement. The obtained result shows...

  5. A detailed analysis of the actual impact of real-time railway traffic management optimization

    OpenAIRE

    PELLEGRINI, Paola; MARLIERE, Grégory; RODRIGUEZ, Joaquin

    2016-01-01

    Railway traffic is often perturbed by unexpected events causing delays, which may greatly propagate. Nowadays, dispatchers deal with delays trying to limit this propagation with scarce decision support tools. RECIFE-MILP is an optimization algorithm which may be used to support dispatchers' decisions. In this paper, we illustrate the analysis performed in collaboration with the French infrastructure manager (SNCF Réseau) to assess the actual impact of the application of optimization in real-t...

  6. Real-time open-loop frequency response analysis of flight test data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosworth, J. T.; West, J. C.

    1986-01-01

    A technique has been developed to compare the open-loop frequency response of a flight test aircraft real time with linear analysis predictions. The result is direct feedback to the flight control systems engineer on the validity of predictions and adds confidence for proceeding with envelope expansion. Further, gain and phase margins can be tracked for trends in a manner similar to the techniques used by structural dynamics engineers in tracking structural modal damping.

  7. Robust activation detection methods for real-time and offline fMRI analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguz, Kaya; Cinsdikici, Muhammed G; Gonul, Ali Saffet

    2017-06-01

    We propose two contributions with novel approaches to fMRI activation analysis. The first is to apply confidence intervals to locate activations in real-time, and second is a new metric based on robust regression of fMRI signals. These contributions are implemented in our four proposed methods; Instantaneous Activation Method (IAM), Instantaneous Activation Method with Past Blocks (IAMP) for real-time analysis, Task Robust Regression Distance Method (TRRD) for the new metric with robust regression and Instantaneous Robust Regression Distance Method (IRRD) for both contributions. For comparison, a statistical offline method called Task Activation Method (TAM) and a correlation analysis method are also implemented. The methods are initially evaluated with synthetic data generated using two different approaches; first using varying hemodynamic response function signals to simulate a wide range of stimuli responses, along with a Gaussian white noise, and second using no activity state data of a real fMRI experiment, which removes the need to generate noise. The methods are also tested with real fMRI experiments and compared with the results obtained by the widely used SPM tool. The results show that instantaneous methods reveal activations that are lost statistically in an offline analysis. They also reveal further improvements by robust fitting application, which minimizes the outlier effect. TRRD has an area under the ROC curve of 0,7127 for very noisy synthetic images, is reaching up to 0,9608 as the noise decreases, while the instantaneous score is in the range of 0,6124 to 0,8019 in the same noise levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. The analysis of real property registration procedures within the land administration system in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Boh, Maša

    2015-01-01

    Master's thesis presents the results of an analysis of land administration in Slovenia. The data part of the system of land administration in Slovenia represents three basic land records: land cadastre, building cadastre and land registry. In the first part of the thesis we examined the legislative framework where we presented some legal changes, studied processes in the system of land administration that are necessary for real estate registration, we reviewed the content of publi...

  9. Analysis of conditional gene deletion using probe based Real-Time PCR

    OpenAIRE

    Lyko Frank; Schmidt Joachim; Weis Britta; Linhart Heinz G

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Conditional gene deletion using Cre-lox recombination is frequently used in mouse genetics; however recombination is frequently incomplete, resulting in a mixture of cells containing the functional (2lox) allele and the truncated (1lox) allele. Conventional analysis of 1lox/2lox allele ratios using Southern Blotting is time consuming, requires relatively large amounts of DNA and has a low sensitivity. We therefore evaluated the utility of Real-Time PCR to measure 1lox/2lox...

  10. Stability Analysis and Variational Integrator for Real-Time Formation Based on Potential Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengqing Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a framework of real-time formation of autonomous vehicles by using potential field and variational integrator. Real-time formation requires vehicles to have coordinated motion and efficient computation. Interactions described by potential field can meet the former requirement which results in a nonlinear system. Stability analysis of such nonlinear system is difficult. Our methodology of stability analysis is discussed in error dynamic system. Transformation of coordinates from inertial frame to body frame can help the stability analysis focus on the structure instead of particular coordinates. Then, the Jacobian of reduced system can be calculated. It can be proved that the formation is stable at the equilibrium point of error dynamic system with the effect of damping force. For consideration of calculation, variational integrator is introduced. It is equivalent to solving algebraic equations. Forced Euler-Lagrange equation in discrete expression is used to construct a forced variational integrator for vehicles in potential field and obstacle environment. By applying forced variational integrator on computation of vehicles' motion, real-time formation of vehicles in obstacle environment can be implemented. Algorithm based on forced variational integrator is designed for a leader-follower formation.

  11. The greenhouse effects of four land use options on organic soils in Sweden - an economic analysis; Odling paa organogen jord och dess antropogena vaexthuseffekt - en ekonomisk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, Per

    1998-10-01

    This Masters thesis includes a socioeconomic analysis of different land use options on organic soils in Sweden. The eleven hypotheses give together an indication that the socioeconomic profits of farming organic soils are substantially different from the profits of farming mineral soils. The difference in profitability are explained by the fact that farming organic soils cause subsidence. This subsidence has environmental effects since it causes emission of greenhouse gases and nitric dioxide. The method used in the analysis is a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). The unique properties of the greenhouse effect demands some adaption of the CBA. An alternative approach to discounting, by logistic discounting, has been analyzed and used. Given the assumptions made in the analysis, the organic soils should not be used for farming. Even if all analyzed farming alternatives show a profit from the viewpoint of business economics the farming alternatives on organic soils show a large loss from the viewpoint of socio economics. A transition of all organic soils used for farming to wetland would, given the assumptions made in this analysis, decrease the socioeconomic profits by 360 million SEK/year. But at the same time the transition would decrease the Swedish emissions of Greenhouse Warming Potentials (GWPs) by 5 600 million GWPs/year. The average cost of this mitigation of the Greenhouse effect is 0.06 SEK/GWP Masters thesis. 79 refs, 19 figs, 87 tabs

  12. Analysis of 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing options on the Roche/454 next-generation titanium sequencing platform.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideyuki Tamaki

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing approach has revolutionized studies in microbial ecology. While primer selection and short read length can affect the resulting microbial community profile, little is known about the influence of pyrosequencing methods on the sequencing throughput and the outcome of microbial community analyses. The aim of this study is to compare differences in output, ease, and cost among three different amplicon pyrosequencing methods for the Roche/454 Titanium platform METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The following three pyrosequencing methods for 16S rRNA genes were selected in this study: Method-1 (standard method is the recommended method for bi-directional sequencing using the LIB-A kit; Method-2 is a new option designed in this study for unidirectional sequencing with the LIB-A kit; and Method-3 uses the LIB-L kit for unidirectional sequencing. In our comparison among these three methods using 10 different environmental samples, Method-2 and Method-3 produced 1.5-1.6 times more useable reads than the standard method (Method-1, after quality-based trimming, and did not compromise the outcome of microbial community analyses. Specifically, Method-3 is the most cost-effective unidirectional amplicon sequencing method as it provided the most reads and required the least effort in consumables management. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings clearly demonstrated that alternative pyrosequencing methods for 16S rRNA genes could drastically affect sequencing output (e.g. number of reads before and after trimming but have little effect on the outcomes of microbial community analysis. This finding is important for both researchers and sequencing facilities utilizing 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing for microbial ecological studies.

  13. An integrated assessment framework for the analysis of multiple pressures in aquatic ecosystems and the appraisal of management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pistocchi, A; Udias, A; Grizzetti, B; Gelati, E; Koundouri, P; Ludwig, R; Papandreou, A; Souliotis, I

    2017-01-01

    The contribution illustrates an integrated assessment framework aimed at evaluating the relationships between multiple pressures and water body status for the purposes of river basin management. The framework includes the following steps. (1) Understanding how the different pressures affect the status of water bodies. This entails the characterization of biophysical state variables and the definition of a causal relationship between pressures and status. Therefore this step involves interaction between experts bearing ecological understanding and experts providing models to represent the effect of pressures. (2) Identifying the relevant pressures to be addressed through appropriate measures to improve the status of water bodies. (3) Evaluating reduction targets for the relevant pressures identified in a river basin, by weighting the effort associated to reducing individual pressures and the potential benefits in terms of water body status. (4) Designing management measures through a creative process and political discussion of alternative options, balancing costs, benefits and effectiveness based on engineering and economic analysis. (5) Simulating scenarios of implementation of a programme of measures in order to check their effectiveness and robustness against climate and land use change. We discuss the five steps of the assessment framework, and particularly the interaction between science and policy at the different stages. We review the assessment tools required at each step and, for setting optimal pressure reduction targets (step 3), we propose and illustrate a simplified multicriteria approach based on semi-quantitative assessment, which produces frontiers of optimal trade-offs between effort spent on measures, and achievements. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Analysis of 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing options on the Roche/454 next-generation titanium sequencing platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamaki, Hideyuki; Wright, Chris L; Li, Xiangzhen; Lin, Qiaoyan; Hwang, Chiachi; Wang, Shiping; Thimmapuram, Jyothi; Kamagata, Yoichi; Liu, Wen-Tso

    2011-01-01

    16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing approach has revolutionized studies in microbial ecology. While primer selection and short read length can affect the resulting microbial community profile, little is known about the influence of pyrosequencing methods on the sequencing throughput and the outcome of microbial community analyses. The aim of this study is to compare differences in output, ease, and cost among three different amplicon pyrosequencing methods for the Roche/454 Titanium platform The following three pyrosequencing methods for 16S rRNA genes were selected in this study: Method-1 (standard method) is the recommended method for bi-directional sequencing using the LIB-A kit; Method-2 is a new option designed in this study for unidirectional sequencing with the LIB-A kit; and Method-3 uses the LIB-L kit for unidirectional sequencing. In our comparison among these three methods using 10 different environmental samples, Method-2 and Method-3 produced 1.5-1.6 times more useable reads than the standard method (Method-1), after quality-based trimming, and did not compromise the outcome of microbial community analyses. Specifically, Method-3 is the most cost-effective unidirectional amplicon sequencing method as it provided the most reads and required the least effort in consumables management. Our findings clearly demonstrated that alternative pyrosequencing methods for 16S rRNA genes could drastically affect sequencing output (e.g. number of reads before and after trimming) but have little effect on the outcomes of microbial community analysis. This finding is important for both researchers and sequencing facilities utilizing 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing for microbial ecological studies.

  15. Expanding Local Cancer Clinical Trial Options: Analysis of the Economic Impact of the Midwest Cancer Alliance in Kansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafford, J Atlee; Gurley-Calvez, Tami; Krebill, Hope; Lai, Sue Min; Christiadi; Doolittle, Gary C

    2017-09-01

    Patients benefit from receiving cancer treatment closer to home when possible and at high-volume regional centers when specialized care is required. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the economic impact of retaining more patients in-state for cancer clinical trials and care, which might offset some of the costs of establishing broader cancer trial and treatment networks. Kansas Cancer Registry data were used to estimate the number of patients retained in-state for cancer care following the expansion of local cancer clinical trial options through the Midwest Cancer Alliance based at the University of Kansas Medical Center. The 2014 economic impact of this enhanced local clinical trial network was estimated in four parts: Medical spending was estimated on the basis of National Cancer Institute cost-of-care estimates. Household travel cost savings were estimated as the difference between in-state and out-of-state travel costs. Trial-related grant income was calculated from administrative records. Indirect and induced economic benefits to the state were estimated using an economic impact model. The authors estimated that the enhanced local cancer clinical trial network resulted in approximately $6.9 million in additional economic activity in the state in 2014, or $362,000 per patient retained in-state. This estimate includes $3.6 million in direct spending and $3.3 million in indirect economic activity. The enhanced trial network also resulted in 45 additional jobs. Retaining patients in-state for cancer care and clinical trial participation allows patients to remain closer to home for care and enhances the state economy.

  16. Therapeutic options in docetaxel-refractory metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixian Zhong

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Docetaxel is an established first-line therapy to treat metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC. Recently, abiraterone and cabazitaxel were approved for use after docetaxel failure, with improved survival. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE preliminary recommendations were negative for both abiraterone (now positive in final recommendation and cabazitaxel (negative in final recommendation. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of abiraterone, cabazitaxel, mitoxantrone and prednisone for mCRPC treatment in US. METHODS: A decision-tree model was constructed to compare the two mCRPC treatments versus two placebos over 18 months from a societal perspective. Chance nodes include baseline pain as a severity indicator, grade III/IV side-effects, and survival at 18 months. Probabilities, survival and health utilities were from published studies. Model cost inputs included drug treatment, side-effect management and prevention, radiation for pain, and death associated costs in 2010 US dollars. RESULTS: Abiraterone is a cost-effective choice at $94K/QALY (quality adjusted life years compared to placebo in our base-case analysis. Cabazitaxel and abiraterone are the most effective, yet also most expensive agents. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER at base-case are $101K/QALY (extended dominated for mitoxantrone vs. placebo, $91K/QALY for abiraterone vs. mitoxantrone, $956K/QALY for cabazitaxel vs. abiraterone. Abiraterone becomes less cost-effective as its AWP increases, or if the cost of mitoxantrone side-effect management decreases. Increases in the percentage of patients with baseline pain leads to an increased ICER for both mitoxantrone and abiraterone, but mitoxantrone does relatively better. Cabazitaxel remains not cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Our base case model suggests that abiraterone is a cost-effective option in docetaxel-refractory mCRPC patients. Newer treatments will also

  17. Interventions to improve real-world walking after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stretton, Caroline M; Mudge, Suzie; Kayes, Nicola M; McPherson, Kathryn M

    2017-03-01

    This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of current interventions to improve real-world walking for people with stroke and specifically whether benefits are sustained. EBSCO Megafile, AMED, Cochrane, Scopus, PEDRO, OTSeeker and Psychbite databases were searched to identify relevant studies. Proximity searching with keywords such as ambulat*, walk*, gait, mobility*, activit* was used. Randomized controlled trials that used measures of real-world walking were included. Two reviewers independently assessed methodological quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool and extracted the data. Nine studies fitting the inclusion criteria were identified, most of high quality. A positive effect overall was found indicating a small effect of interventions on real-world walking (SMD 0.29 (0.17, 0.41)). Five studies provided follow-up data at >3-6 months, which demonstrated sustained benefits (SMD 0.32 (0.16, 0.48)). Subgroup analysis revealed studies using exercise alone were not effective (SMD 0.19 (-0.11, 0.49)), but those incorporating behavioural change techniques (SMD 0.27 (0.12, 0.41)) were. A small but significant effect was found for current interventions and benefits can be sustained. Interventions that include behaviour change techniques appear more effective at improving real-world walking habits than exercise alone.

  18. Micromagnetic Cancer Cell Immobilization and Release for Real-Time Single Cell Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Devina; Rad, Armin Tahmasbi; Nieh, Mu-Ping; Claffey, Kevin P.; Hoshino, Kazunori

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the interaction of live cells with macromolecules is crucial for designing efficient therapies. Considering the functional heterogeneity found in cancer cells, real-time single cell analysis is necessary to characterize responses. In this study, we have designed and fabricated a microfluidic channel with patterned micromagnets which can temporarily immobilize the cells during analysis and release them after measurements. The microchannel is composed of plain coverslip top and bottom panels to facilitate easy microscopic observation and undisturbed application of analytes to the cells. Cells labeled with functionalized magnetic beads were immobilized in the device with an efficiency of 90.8±3.6%. Since the micromagnets are made of soft magnetic material (Ni), they released cells when external magnetic field was turned off from the channel. This allows the reuse of the channel for a new sample. As a model drug analysis, the immobilized breast cancer cells (MCF7) were exposed to fluorescent lipid nanoparticles and association and dissociation were measured through fluorescence analysis. Two concentrations of nanoparticles, 0.06 μg/ml and 0.08 μg/ml were tested and time lapse images were recorded and analyzed. The microfluidic device was able to provide a microenvironment for sample analysis, making it an efficient platform for real-time analysis.

  19. Micromagnetic Cancer Cell Immobilization and Release for Real-Time Single Cell Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaiswal, Devina; Rad, Armin Tahmasbi [Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269 (United States); Nieh, Mu-Ping [Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269 (United States); Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States); Polymer Program, Institute of Materials Science, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States); Claffey, Kevin P. [Department of Cell Biology, University of Connecticut Health Center, Farmington, CT 06030 (United States); Hoshino, Kazunori, E-mail: hoshino@engr.uconn.edu [Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269 (United States)

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the interaction of live cells with macromolecules is crucial for designing efficient therapies. Considering the functional heterogeneity found in cancer cells, real-time single cell analysis is necessary to characterize responses. In this study, we have designed and fabricated a microfluidic channel with patterned micromagnets which can temporarily immobilize the cells during analysis and release them after measurements. The microchannel is composed of plain coverslip top and bottom panels to facilitate easy microscopic observation and undisturbed application of analytes to the cells. Cells labeled with functionalized magnetic beads were immobilized in the device with an efficiency of 90.8±3.6%. Since the micromagnets are made of soft magnetic material (Ni), they released cells when external magnetic field was turned off from the channel. This allows the reuse of the channel for a new sample. As a model drug analysis, the immobilized breast cancer cells (MCF7) were exposed to fluorescent lipid nanoparticles and association and dissociation were measured through fluorescence analysis. Two concentrations of nanoparticles, 0.06 µg/ml and 0.08 µg/ml were tested and time lapse images were recorded and analyzed. The microfluidic device was able to provide a microenvironment for sample analysis, making it an efficient platform for real-time analysis.

  20. Feasibility of real-time satisfaction surveys through automated analysis of patients' unstructured comments and sentiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemi, Farrokh; Torii, Manabu; Clementz, Laura; Aron, David C

    2012-01-01

    This article shows how sentiment analysis (an artificial intelligence procedure that classifies opinions expressed within the text) can be used to design real-time satisfaction surveys. To improve participation, real-time surveys must be radically short. The shortest possible survey is a comment card. Patients' comments can be found online at sites organized for rating clinical care, within e-mails, in hospital complaint registries, or through simplified satisfaction surveys such as "Minute Survey." Sentiment analysis uses patterns among words to classify a comment into a complaint, or praise. It further classifies complaints into specific reasons for dissatisfaction, similar to broad categories found in longer surveys such as Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems. In this manner, sentiment analysis allows one to re-create responses to longer satisfaction surveys from a list of comments. To demonstrate, this article provides an analysis of sentiments expressed in 995 online comments made at the RateMDs.com Web site. We focused on pediatrician and obstetrician/gynecologist physicians in District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. We were able to classify patients' reasons for dissatisfaction and the analysis provided information on how practices can improve their care. This article reports the accuracy of classifications of comments. Accuracy will improve as the number of comments received increases. In addition, we ranked physicians using the concept of time-to-next complaint. A time-between control chart was used to assess whether time-to-next complaint exceeded historical patterns and therefore suggested a departure from norms. These findings suggest that (1) patients' comments are easily available, (2) sentiment analysis can classify these comments into complaints/praise, and (3) time-to-next complaint can turn these classifications into numerical benchmarks that can trace impact of improvements over time. The procedures described in the

  1. Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kishor, N. Kundan; Koenig, Evan F.

    2010-01-01

    We undertake a real-time VAR analysis of the usefulness of the term spread, the junk-bond spread, the ISM's New Orders Index, and broker/dealer equity for predicting growth in non-farm employment. To get around the "apples and oranges" problem described by Koenig, Dolmas and Piger (2003), we augment each VAR we consider with a flexible state-space model of employment revisions. This methodology produces jobs forecasts consistently superior to those obtained using conventional VAR analysis. Th...

  2. Combining real-time monitoring and knowledge-based analysis in MARVEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwuttke, Ursula M.; Quan, A. G.; Angelino, R.; Veregge, J. R.

    1993-01-01

    Real-time artificial intelligence is gaining increasing attention for applications in which conventional software methods are unable to meet technology needs. One such application area is the monitoring and analysis of complex systems. MARVEL, a distributed monitoring and analysis tool with multiple expert systems, was developed and successfully applied to the automation of interplanetary spacecraft operations at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. MARVEL implementation and verification approaches, the MARVEL architecture, and the specific benefits that were realized by using MARVEL in operations are described.

  3. Analysis of Heuristics in Business Recruitment based on a Portfolio of Real Derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Bou Ysás

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Departing from the notion that labour legislation should be founded in the generation of job stability a model for recruitment is presented in which the employer is likened to the holder of an investment portfolio containing two real derivatives – swap or the option of sale. This model allows us on one hand to analyze sensitivity to the variables that are at play in an employment contract and, on the other, look at the effects that the most recent reforms in Spanish labour laws have had on contracting decisions made by employers. The results are clear: social security benefits are shown to be the most sensitive variable on the work contract, and applying the changes proposed in the latest labour reforms, this effect is upheld. The study concludes that reducing the costs of dismissal does not increase the likelihood of employers’ taking on new staff.

  4. Evaluation of the TRMM real time Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis for global hydrologic prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, H.; Voisin, N.; Minihane, M.; Huffman, G. J.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    The applicability of satellite precipitation products like the TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA) products has been limited in its applicability to real-time hydrologic prediction (e.g., of floods and droughts) by the need for retrospective gauge-based adjustments to correct for biases. However, recent advances in the TMPA algorithms and data streams now offer encouragement regarding their potential use for real-time hydrologic prediction without gauge adjustment. This potential is of particular interest in regions like Africa where in situ gauge networks are sparse. We evaluate how changes in the TMPA real-time (TMPA-RT) precipitation retrieval algorithms have affected the products in the context of flood and drought prediction, and quantify the uncertainty in streamflow predictions resulting from TMPA real-time errors with respect to the TMPA research (gauge corrected) product (TMPA-RP). We conduct hydrologic simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over 11 global river basins within the TMPA domain for the period 2003 to 2011. For evaluation purposes, the model is forced by the newly available TMPA-RP Version 7 TMPA-RT, , and a bias corrected TMPA-RT (adjusted in real-time to correct biases relative to TMPA-RP at the University of Washington). Other meteorological forcings for VIC are taken from an independent global data set. The daily VIC model output is routed to the main river outlet for each basin using a one quarter degree routing network. We evaluate the results both in terms of the evolution of the RT algorithms and the uncertainty of hydrologic prediction associated with the latest (V7) algorithm.

  5. Cervical pregnancy: Diagnosis and management options | Awoleke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Current therapeutic options for cervical pregnancies include conservative management which could be medical, surgical or both, and 'radical' surgery. The advent of real-time transvaginal ultrasound examination has allowed earlier diagnosis which has in turn permitted life-saving and fertility-sparing treatment options.

  6. Real time eye blink noise removal from EEG signals using morphological component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matiko, Joseph W; Beeby, Stephen; Tudor, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a method of removing the noise caused by eye blinks from an electroencephalogram (EEG) signal in real time based on morphological component analysis (MCA). This method sparsely represents both the eye blink and the EEG signal basis matrices using a Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT). This approach has two main advantages: 1) fast computation of the estimation of the signal coefficients using the basis pursuit algorithm 2) less memory requirement. The obtained result shows that the correlation coefficient between the raw EEG and the cleaned EEG is between 0.72 and 0.94 which implies that it is possible to remove eye blink noise from the EEG signal in real time without affecting an underlying brain signal.

  7. Obtaining real-time Bode (analysis of electronic circuits with LabVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akif Akgül

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Bode diagram is a term used in many fields of science and engineering that can be described as frequency response analysis. LabVIEW is a multifunctional program for acquiring, processing and analyzing data. In this paper, real time Bode diagram of electronic circuits are obtained in LabVIEW platform without using special VIs(virtual instruments such as SI Bode Plot VI. In addition to this, the realized study can be easily integrated in to other commonly used platforms such as MATLAB and C to obtain bode diagram results in real time. To evaluate performance of the realized study, Bode diagram results obtained from LabVIEW is compared with the results obtained from ORCAD-PSpice simulations.

  8. Real-time analysis of mechanical and electrical resonances with open-source sound card software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makan, G.; Kopasz, K.; Gingl, Z.

    2014-01-01

    We present an easily reproducible, open-source, sound card based experimental set-up to support transfer function measurement. Our system is able to visualize the signals of mechanical and electrical resonances and their spectra in real time. We give a brief description of the system, and show some examples of electrical and mechanical resonance experiments that are supported by the system. The theoretical background, experimental set-up, component selection and digital signal processing are all discussed, and more detailed information (building instructions, software download) is provided on a dedicated web page (www.noise.inf.u-szeged.hu/edudev/RealTimeAnalysisOfResonances/). The experimental set-up can support the undergraduate and graduate education of students of physics, physics education and engineering by means of experimental demonstrations and laboratory exercises. The very low cost, high efficiency and transparent system provides a scalable experimental environment that can be easily built in several instances.

  9. Multi-layer holographic bifurcative neural network system for real-time adaptive EOS data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hua-Kuang; Huang, K. S.; Diep, J.

    1993-01-01

    Optical data processing techniques have the inherent advantage of high data throughout, low weight and low power requirements. These features are particularly desirable for onboard spacecraft in-situ real-time data analysis and data compression applications. the proposed multi-layer optical holographic neural net pattern recognition technique will utilize the nonlinear photorefractive devices for real-time adaptive learning to classify input data content and recognize unexpected features. Information can be stored either in analog or digital form in a nonlinear photofractive device. The recording can be accomplished in time scales ranging from milliseconds to microseconds. When a system consisting of these devices is organized in a multi-layer structure, a feedforward neural net with bifurcating data classification capability is formed. The interdisciplinary research will involve the collaboration with top digital computer architecture experts at the University of Southern California.

  10. Real-Time Stability Margin Measurements for X-38 Robustness Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosworth, John T.; Stachowiak, Susan J.

    2005-01-01

    A method has been developed for real-time stability margin measurement calculations. The method relies on a tailored-forced excitation targeted to a specific frequency range. Computation of the frequency response is matched to the specific frequencies contained in the excitation. A recursive Fourier transformation is used to make the method compatible with real-time calculation. The method was incorporated into the X-38 nonlinear simulation and applied to an X-38 robustness test. X-38 stability margins were calculated for different variations in aerodynamic and mass properties over the vehicle flight trajectory. The new method showed results comparable to more traditional stability analysis techniques, and at the same time, this new method provided coverage that is more complete and increased efficiency.

  11. The Analysis of the Real Convergence of the Countries from Central and Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Badircea

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This thesis treats extremely present aspects regarding the evolutions of the emerging economies within the new member states of the European Union insisting on the analysis of the convergence process from a real perspective. Beside the achievement of a monetary union, one of the fundamental objectives of the European Union is represented by the reducing of the disparities regarding the level of development among the member states. One of the ways of appreciating the reduction of the disparities between the economies involve a reduction of the gap as far as the GDP level/inhabitant is concerned or in other words, a real convergence. A series of statistic data are analysed in order to point out the extent to which the central ad East-European states have managed to reduce the gap in report to the developed member states of the EMU, using indicators for the appreciation of the real convergence: the GDP per inhabitant, the monthly average salary, the poverty rate, the contribution of the main sectors of the economy in the formation of the GDP and the unemployment rate. From the analysis of the statistic data one can observe that the highest degree of real convergence is held by Slovenia, which distanced a lot from the other EEC states, followed by the Czech Republic. Regarding from the point of view of the evolution of the EEC countries during the entire analysed period, based on the dynamics of the indicators and of the speed of catching up the gaps we can also notice the performance of the Baltic countries. Unfortunately, Romania and Bulgaria are way behind the other EEC countries.

  12. The Analysis of the Real Convergence of the Countries from Central and Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Maria Bădîrcea

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This thesis treats extremely present aspects regarding the evolutions of the emerging economies within the new member states of the European Union insisting on the analysis of the convergence process from a real perspective. Beside the achievement of a monetary union, one of the fundamental objectives of the European Union is represented by the reducing of the disparities regarding the level of development among the member states. One of the ways of appreciating the reduction of the disparities between the economies involve a reduction of the gap as far as the GDP level/inhabitant is concerned or in other words, a real convergence. A series of statistic data are analysed in order to point out the extent to which the central and East-European states have managed to reduce the gap in report to the developed member states of the EMU, using indicators for the appreciation of the real convergence: the GDP per inhabitant, the monthly average salary, the poverty rate, the contribution of the main sectors of the economy in the formation of the GDP and the unemployment rate. From the analysis of the statistic data one can observe that the highest degree of real convergence is held by Slovenia, which distanced a lot from the other EEC states, followed by the Czech Republic. Regarding from the point of view of the evolution of the EEC countries during the entire analysed period, based on the dynamics of the indicators and of the speed of catching up the gaps we can also notice the performance of the Baltic countries. Unfortunately, Romania and Bulgaria are way behind the other EEC countries.

  13. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  14. Real-time data analysis at the LHC: present and future

    CERN Document Server

    Gligorov, V.V.

    2015-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which collides protons at an energy of 14 TeV, produces hundreds of exabytes of data per year, making it one of the largest sources of data in the world today. At present it is not possible to even transfer most of this data from the four main particle detectors at the LHC to "offline" data facilities, much less to permanently store it for future processing. For this reason the LHC detectors are equipped with real-time analysis systems, called triggers, which process this volume of data and select the most interesting proton-proton collisions. The LHC experiment triggers reduce the data produced by the LHC by between 1/1000 and 1/100000, to tens of petabytes per year, allowing its economical storage and further analysis. The bulk of the data-reduction is performed by custom electronics which ignores most of the data in its decision making, and is therefore unable to exploit the most powerful known data analysis strategies. I cover the present status of real-time data analysis ...

  15. Can virtual reality exposure therapy gains be generalized to real life? A meta-analysis of studies applying behavioral assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morina, N.; Ijntema, H.; Meyerbröker, K.; Emmelkamp, P.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    In virtual reality exposure therapy (VRET), patients are exposed to virtual environments that resemble feared real-life situations. The aim of the current study was to assess the extent to which VRET gains can be observed in real-life situations. We conducted a meta-analysis of clinical trials

  16. A Fast Topological Trigger for Real Time Analysis of Nanosecond Phenomena; Opening the Gamma Ray Window to Our Universe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krennrich, Frank [Iowa State University

    2013-09-24

    This work was to enable the development of a proof-of-principle nanosecond trigger system that is designed to perform a real time analysis of fast Cherenkov light flashes from air showers. The basic building blocks of the trigger system have been designed and constructed, and a real world system is now operating in the VERITAS experiment.

  17. Enhancing public participation in natural resource management using Soft OR - an application of strategic option development and analysis in tactical forest planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjortsø, Carsten Nico Portefée

    2004-01-01

    This article presents a case study where a modified version of strategic option development and analysis (SODA) is applied to enhance the level of citizens’ participation in a strategic forest management planning process managed by the Danish Forest and Nature Agency. The case is interesting......, communication of stakeholder perspectives, identification and management of conflicts, decision process transparency, and agency accountability for final planning outcomes. The primary problems encountered relate to the difficulty of reading the cognitive maps, time requirements, and selection of facilitator...

  18. Analysis of the Real-time Compensation for Thermal Error at CNC Milling Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Tsung-Chia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on analyzing and discussing thermal errors at CNC milling machines. The thermal affection makes the deformation of machine tools and is the main problem of accuracy error over than 65%. Effectively improving or controlling thermal errors is helpful for the accuracy of machine. The key point of this paper is the position of tool center point. Firstly, 14 pieces of temperature sensors are used for checking the real field of temperature, and then four sensors with better linearity are chosen for real situations. The test bar and 5 pieces of non-contact sensors are utilized for clearly getting the displacement of the tool center point and head during the process. Based on the theory of MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis, the external zero-point is shifted to build the mathematical module. The database is input to the control board and the PLC is used for real-time compensation for machining. Finally, two work pieces (one compensated and one non-compensated are tested and compensated one presents better precision.

  19. Risk Analysis of Multipurpose Reservoir Real-time Operation based on Probabilistic Hydrologic Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.

    2011-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based probabilistic hydrologic forecasting, which outputs a lot of inflow scenarios or traces, does well in depicting the inflow not only the marginal distribution but also their corrections. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir operating risk by inputting probabilistic hydrologic forecasting into reservoir real-time operation. The proposed procedure involves: (1) based upon the Bayesian inference, two alternative techniques, the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are implemented for producing probabilistic hydrologic forecasting, respectively, (2) the reservoir risk is defined as the ratio of the number of traces that excessive (or below) the critical value to the total number of traces, and (3) a multipurpose reservoir operation model is build to produce Pareto solutions for trade-offs between risks and profits with the inputted probabilistic hydrologic forecasting. With a case study of the China's Three Gorges Reservoir, it is found that the reservoir real-time operation risks can be estimated and minimized based on the proposed methods, and this is great potential benefit in decision and choosing the most realistic one.

  20. Application of probabilistic hydrologic forecasting for risk analysis of multipurpose reservoir real-time operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.

    2012-12-01

    Quantitative analysis of the risk for reservoir real-time operation is a hard task owing to the difficulty of accurate description of inflow uncertainties. The ensemble-based probabilistic hydrologic forecasting depicts the inflow not only the marginal distributions but also their corrections by producing inflow scenarios. This motivates us to analyze the reservoir real-time operating risk with ensemble-based hydrologic forecasting inputs. The proposed procedure involves: (1) based upon the Bayesian inference, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is implemented to produce ensemble-based probabilistic hydrologic forecasting, (2) the reservoir risk is defined as the ratio of the number of scenarios that excessive the critical value to the total number of scenarios, (3) a multipurpose reservoir operation model is built and solved using scenario optimization to produce Pareto solutions for trade-offs between risks and profits. With a case study of the China's Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) for the 2010 and 2012 floods, it is found that the reservoir real-time operation risks can be estimated directly and minimized based on the proposed methods, and is easy of implementation by the reservoir operators.

  1. Portable Dew Point Mass Spectrometry System for Real-Time Gas and Moisture Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkin, C.; Gillespie, Stacey; Ratzel, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    A portable instrument incorporates both mass spectrometry and dew point measurement to provide real-time, quantitative gas measurements of helium, nitrogen, oxygen, argon, and carbon dioxide, along with real-time, quantitative moisture analysis. The Portable Dew Point Mass Spectrometry (PDP-MS) system comprises a single quadrupole mass spectrometer and a high vacuum system consisting of a turbopump and a diaphragm-backing pump. A capacitive membrane dew point sensor was placed upstream of the MS, but still within the pressure-flow control pneumatic region. Pressure-flow control was achieved with an upstream precision metering valve, a capacitance diaphragm gauge, and a downstream mass flow controller. User configurable LabVIEW software was developed to provide real-time concentration data for the MS, dew point monitor, and sample delivery system pressure control, pressure and flow monitoring, and recording. The system has been designed to include in situ, NIST-traceable calibration. Certain sample tubing retains sufficient water that even if the sample is dry, the sample tube will desorb water to an amount resulting in moisture concentration errors up to 500 ppm for as long as 10 minutes. It was determined that Bev-A-Line IV was the best sample line to use. As a result of this issue, it is prudent to add a high-level humidity sensor to PDP-MS so such events can be prevented in the future.

  2. Real-time visualisation and analysis of internal examinations--seeing the unseen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granados, Alejandro; Hald, Niels; Di Marco, Aimee; Ahmed, Shahla; Low-Beer, Naomi; Higham, Jenny; Kneebone, Roger; Bello, Fernando

    2014-01-01

    Internal examinations such as Digital Rectal Examination (DRE) and bimanual Vaginal Examination (BVE) are routinely performed for early diagnosis of cancer and other diseases. Although they are recognised as core skills to be taught on a medical curriculum, they are difficult to learn and teach due to their unsighted nature. We present a framework that combines a visualisation and analysis tool with position and pressure sensors to enable the study of internal examinations and provision of real-time feedback. This approach is novel as it allows for real-time continuous trajectory and pressure data to be obtained for the complete examination, which may be used for teaching and assessment. Experiments were conducted performing DRE and BVE on benchtop models, and BVE on Gynaecological Teaching Assistants (GTA). The results obtained suggest that the proposed methodology may provide an insight into what constitutes an adequate DRE or BVE, provide real-time feedback tools for learning and assessment, and inform haptics-based simulator design.

  3. QPCR: Application for real-time PCR data management and analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabinger, Stephan; Thallinger, Gerhard G; Snajder, René; Eichhorn, Heiko; Rader, Robert; Trajanoski, Zlatko

    2009-08-27

    Since its introduction quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) has become the standard method for quantification of gene expression. Its high sensitivity, large dynamic range, and accuracy led to the development of numerous applications with an increasing number of samples to be analyzed. Data analysis consists of a number of steps, which have to be carried out in several different applications. Currently, no single tool is available which incorporates storage, management, and multiple methods covering the complete analysis pipeline. QPCR is a versatile web-based Java application that allows to store, manage, and analyze data from relative quantification qPCR experiments. It comprises a parser to import generated data from qPCR instruments and includes a variety of analysis methods to calculate cycle-threshold and amplification efficiency values. The analysis pipeline includes technical and biological replicate handling, incorporation of sample or gene specific efficiency, normalization using single or multiple reference genes, inter-run calibration, and fold change calculation. Moreover, the application supports assessment of error propagation throughout all analysis steps and allows conducting statistical tests on biological replicates. Results can be visualized in customizable charts and exported for further investigation. We have developed a web-based system designed to enhance and facilitate the analysis of qPCR experiments. It covers the complete analysis workflow combining parsing, analysis, and generation of charts into one single application. The system is freely available at http://genome.tugraz.at/QPCR.

  4. QPCR: Application for real-time PCR data management and analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eichhorn Heiko

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since its introduction quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR has become the standard method for quantification of gene expression. Its high sensitivity, large dynamic range, and accuracy led to the development of numerous applications with an increasing number of samples to be analyzed. Data analysis consists of a number of steps, which have to be carried out in several different applications. Currently, no single tool is available which incorporates storage, management, and multiple methods covering the complete analysis pipeline. Results QPCR is a versatile web-based Java application that allows to store, manage, and analyze data from relative quantification qPCR experiments. It comprises a parser to import generated data from qPCR instruments and includes a variety of analysis methods to calculate cycle-threshold and amplification efficiency values. The analysis pipeline includes technical and biological replicate handling, incorporation of sample or gene specific efficiency, normalization using single or multiple reference genes, inter-run calibration, and fold change calculation. Moreover, the application supports assessment of error propagation throughout all analysis steps and allows conducting statistical tests on biological replicates. Results can be visualized in customizable charts and exported for further investigation. Conclusion We have developed a web-based system designed to enhance and facilitate the analysis of qPCR experiments. It covers the complete analysis workflow combining parsing, analysis, and generation of charts into one single application. The system is freely available at http://genome.tugraz.at/QPCR

  5. A Tool for Beamforming and Real-Time Link Budget Analysis in Aeronautical Communications Using Kinematics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cenk Erturk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aeronautical Communication (AC systems are likely to be a part of future tiered communication network structures. Therefore maintaining a robust AC link with a minimum power burden on the host platform has a critical importance. In this paper, we analyze the AC systems from a link budget analysis point of view and define the requirements for the parameters of link budget with an emphasize on antenna gains. First, we study the link budget analysis in an AC system. Then, we present a mathematical framework to provide an end-to-end link budget analysis utilizing the platform kinematics. Finally, we present the numerical results for typical AC scenarios and discuss that these results can be used for calculating the real-time link budget and electronic beamforming to provide a robust link.

  6. Analysis and Synthesis of Communication-Intensive Heterogeneous Real-Time Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pop, Paul

    2003-01-01

    Embedded computer systems are now everywhere: from alarm clocks to PDAs, from mobile phones to cars, almost all the devices we use are controlled by embedded computer systems. An important class of embedded computer systems is that of real-time systems, which have to fulfill strict timing...... not only in terms of platforms and communication protocols, but also in terms of scheduling policies. Regarding this last aspect, in this thesis we consider time-driven systems, event-driven systems, and a combination of both, called multi-cluster systems. The analysis takes into account the heterogeneous...... applications, and the design problem is to implement new functionality on top of this system. Hence, in addition to the analysis and synthesis methods proposed, we have also considered mapping and scheduling within such an incremental design process. The analysis and synthesis techniques proposed have been...

  7. MODAL ANALYSIS OF REAL TIMBER FRAME HOUSES WITH DIFFERENT INSULATION MATERIALS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Szczepański

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present the results of a numerical modal analysis of two actual structures of timber frame buildings and the different behaviour due to the used insulation material. One model of the timber structure was filled with mineral wool, while the other with polyurethane foam. During the modal analysis, eigenvalues for both models have been determined. The results of the analysis clearly show the increase of stiffness and damping properties of skeletal constructions achieved by the use of polyurethane foam as the skeleton filling. The numerical model was based on prior experimental test on real scale single frame elements, therefore the result can be assumed to be adequate.

  8. Real-time fMRI processing with physiological noise correction - Comparison with off-line analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misaki, Masaya; Barzigar, Nafise; Zotev, Vadim; Phillips, Raquel; Cheng, Samuel; Bodurka, Jerzy

    2015-12-30

    While applications of real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rtfMRI) are growing rapidly, there are still limitations in real-time data processing compared to off-line analysis. We developed a proof-of-concept real-time fMRI processing (rtfMRIp) system utilizing a personal computer (PC) with a dedicated graphic processing unit (GPU) to demonstrate that it is now possible to perform intensive whole-brain fMRI data processing in real-time. The rtfMRIp performs slice-timing correction, motion correction, spatial smoothing, signal scaling, and general linear model (GLM) analysis with multiple noise regressors including physiological noise modeled with cardiac (RETROICOR) and respiration volume per time (RVT). The whole-brain data analysis with more than 100,000voxels and more than 250volumes is completed in less than 300ms, much faster than the time required to acquire the fMRI volume. Real-time processing implementation cannot be identical to off-line analysis when time-course information is used, such as in slice-timing correction, signal scaling, and GLM. We verified that reduced slice-timing correction for real-time analysis had comparable output with off-line analysis. The real-time GLM analysis, however, showed over-fitting when the number of sampled volumes was small. Our system implemented real-time RETROICOR and RVT physiological noise corrections for the first time and it is capable of processing these steps on all available data at a given time, without need for recursive algorithms. Comprehensive data processing in rtfMRI is possible with a PC, while the number of samples should be considered in real-time GLM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Ranking of office lease options by multi-criteria methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ginevičius Romualdas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the growing scales of business and internationalisation, the issue of the office lease is becoming more and more relevant for companies. They are becoming an inherent part of business, on which the results of the commercial activity depend. Currently existing methodologies for the assessment of the office lease options are imperfect as they lack complexity; they are not associated with the objective of the lease – the improvement of the business results; the methods of the quantitative assessment of lease options are far from perfect. The paper aims at formulating the hierarchical indicator system of commercial real estate facilities (offices adjusted for the multi-criteria assessment and at calculating the lease options based on this indicator system. To achieve this goal, the following methods have been used: scientific literature analysis and multi-criteria assessment methods.

  10. Real-time flight test analysis and display techniques for the X-29A aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, John W.; Petersen, Kevin L.

    1989-01-01

    The X-29A advanced technology demonstrator flight envelope expansion program and the subsequent flight research phase gave impetus to the development of several innovative real-time analysis and display techniques. These new techniques produced significant improvements in flight test productivity, flight research capabilities, and flight safety. These techniques include real-time measurement and display of in-flight structural loads, dynamic structural mode frequency and damping, flight control system dynamic stability and control response, aeroperformance drag polars, and aircraft specific excess power. Several of these analysis techniques also provided for direct comparisons of flight-measured results with analytical predictions. The aeroperformance technique was made possible by the concurrent development of a new simplified in-flight net thrust computation method. To achieve these levels of on-line flight test analysis, integration of ground and airborne systems was required. The capability of NASA Ames Research Center, Dryden Flight Research Facility's Western Aeronautical Test Range was a key factor to enable implementation of these methods.

  11. Real-time whole slide mosaicing for non-automated microscopes in histopathology analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Gherardi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Mosaics of Whole Slides (WS are a valuable resource for pathologists to have the whole sample available at high resolution. The WS mosaic provides pathologists with an overview of the whole sample at a glance, helping them to make a reliable diagnosis. Despite recent solutions exist for creating WS mosaics based, for instance, on automated microscopes with motorized stages or WS scanner, most of the histopathology analysis are still performed in laboratories endowed with standard manual stage microscopes. Nowadays, there are lots of dedicated devices and hardware to achieve WS automatically and in batch, but only few of them are conceived to work tightly connected with a microscope and none of them is capable of working in real-time with common light microscopes. However, there is a need of having low-cost yet effective mosaicing applications even in small laboratories to improve routine histopathological analyses or to perform remote diagnoses. Aims: The purpose of this work is to study and develop a real-time mosaicing algorithm working even using non-automated microscopes, to enable pathologists to achieve WS while moving the holder manually, without exploiting any dedicated device. This choice enables pathologists to build WS in real-time, while browsing the sample as they are accustomed to, helping them to identify, locate, and digitally annotate lesions fast. Materials and Methods: Our method exploits fast feature tracker and frame to frame registration that we implemented on common graphics processing unit cards. The system work with common light microscopes endowed with a digital camera and connected to a commodity personal computer. Result and Conclusion: The system has been tested on several histological samples to test the effectiveness of the algorithm to work with mosaicing having different appearances as far as brightness, contrast, texture, and detail levels are concerned, attaining sub-pixel registration accuracy at real

  12. Fracture analysis of a transversely isotropic high temperature superconductor strip based on real fundamental solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhiwen; Zhou, Youhe

    2015-04-01

    Real fundamental solution for fracture problem of transversely isotropic high temperature superconductor (HTS) strip is obtained. The superconductor E-J constitutive law is characterized by the Bean model where the critical current density is independent of the flux density. Fracture analysis is performed by the methods of singular integral equations which are solved numerically by Gauss-Lobatto-Chybeshev (GSL) collocation method. To guarantee a satisfactory accuracy, the convergence behavior of the kernel function is investigated. Numerical results of fracture parameters are obtained and the effects of the geometric characteristics, applied magnetic field and critical current density on the stress intensity factors (SIF) are discussed.

  13. Method for Hot Real-Time Analysis of Pyrolysis Vapors at Pilot Scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pomeroy, Marc D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-29

    Pyrolysis oils contain more than 400 compounds, up to 60% of which do not re-volatilize for subsequent chemical analysis. Vapor chemical composition is also complicated as additional condensation reactions occur during quenching and collection of the product. Due to the complexity of the pyrolysis oil, and a desire to catalytically upgrade the vapor composition before condensation, online real-time analytical techniques such as Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry (MBMS) are of great use. However, in order to properly sample hot pyrolysis vapors at the pilot scale, many challenges must be overcome.

  14. Adaptive pattern recognition in real-time video-based soccer analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlipsing, Marc; Salmen, Jan; Tschentscher, Marc

    2017-01-01

    Computer-aided sports analysis is demanded by coaches and the media. Image processing and machine learning techniques that allow for "live" recognition and tracking of players exist. But these methods are far from collecting and analyzing event data fully autonomously. To generate accurate results...... collection, annotation, and learning as an offline task. A semi-automatic labeling of training data and robust learning given few examples from unbalanced classes are required. We present a real-time system acquiring and analyzing video sequences from soccer matches. It estimates each player's position...

  15. Schedulability and Memory Interference Analysis of Multicore Preemptive Real-time Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boudjadar, Jalil; Nadjm-Tehrani, Simin

    unpredictability resulting from interference at any shared memory level may lead to violation of the timing properties in safety-critical real-time systems. In this paper, we introduce a formal analysis framework for the schedulability and memory interference of multicore systems with shared caches and DRAM. We...... build a multicore system model with a fine grained application behavior given in terms of periodic preemptible tasks, described with explicit read and write access numbers for shared caches and DRAM. We also provide a method to analyze and recommend candidates for task-to-core reallocation with the goal...

  16. Analysis of Real Estate market Cycles: an application on Italian data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurizio Festa

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Using Italian data, on the basis of economic theoretical approach of the honeycomb cycle by Janssen, Kruijt and Needham in 1994, this article proposes a further development in the study of the dynamics of real estate housing market in Italy. Using the market indicators, we plot the “honeycomb cycle” graph for each region and greatest Italian cities. Regions showing similar patterns are grouped using cluster analysis method. This practical work reaches its particular goal examining the national territory in terms of development and its evolution.

  17. An Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Real Sector Confidence Index: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail Canöz

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Traditional finance theories are not sufficient to explain investor’s sentiment and psychology. This situation leads to emergence of Behavioral Finance. The aim of this paper is to analyze the macroeconomic factors affecting Real Sector Confidence Index (RSCI of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT. Within this scope, monthly data for the period between 2007:01 and 2017:03 is analyzed by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the analysis, CBRT Composite Leading Indicators Index, Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (CURMI, Turkish Lira Reference Interest Rate (TRLIBOR and BIST100 Return Index affect RSCI.

  18. Real time video processing software for the analysis of endoscopic guided-biopsies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordoñez, C.; Bouchet, A.; Pastore, J.; Blotta, E.

    2011-12-01

    The severity in Barrett esophagus disease is, undoubtedly, the possibility of its malignization. To make an early diagnosis in order to avoid possible complications, it is absolutely necessary collect biopsies to make a histological analysis. This should be done under endoscopic control to avoid mucus areas that may co-exist within the columnar epithelial, which could lead to a false diagnosis. This paper presents a video processing software in real-time in order to delineate and enhance areas of interest to facilitate the work of the expert.

  19. Shungnak Energy Configuration Options.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosewater, David Martin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Power systems in rural Alaska villages face a unique combination of challenges that can increase the cost of energy and lowers energy supply reliability. In the case of the remote village of Shungnak, diesel and heating fuel is either shipped in by barge or flown in by aircraft. This report presents a technical analysis of several energy infrastructure upgrade and modification options to reduce the amount of fuel consumed by the community of Shungnak. Reducing fuel usage saves money and makes the village more resilient to disruptions in fuel supply. The analysis considers demand side options, such as energy efficiency, alongside the installation of wind and solar power generation options. Some novel approaches are also considered including battery energy storage and the use of electrical home heating stoves powered by renewable generation that would otherwise be spilled and wasted. This report concludes with specific recommendations for Shungnak based on economic factors, and fuel price sensitivity. General conclusions are also included to support future work analyzing similar energy challenges in remote arctic regions.

  20. Construction and the Analysis of the Models of Mass Appraisal of Residential Real Estate in Riga and Daugavpils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana Ruzha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mass appraisal of real estate is one of the most classical economic tasks in accomplishing of which econometric modeling is successfully applied. The following article dwells upon three models used for estimating the commercial value of residential real estate. For the purposes of the research the market of residential real estate of two cities (i.e. capital of Latvia - Riga and the regional centre – Daugavpils has been studied. The statistical analysis of the sales data for 2010-2011 has allowed distinguishing pricing factors of the residential real estate, both at the regional level, and at the level of a building and object of real estate. Modeling was conducted with the use of correlation and regression and cluster analyses. The additive and multiplicative models based on the regression equation and the model of the cluster analysis based on the method of parallel sectioning have been presented

  1. The impact on family functioning of social media use by depressed adolescents: a qualitative analysis of the Family Options Study

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew James Lewis; Tess eKnight; Galit eGermanov; Michelle Lisa Benstead; Claire Ingrid Joseph; Lucinda ePoole

    2015-01-01

    Background: Adolescent depression is a prevalent mental health problem, which can have a major impact on family cohesion. In such circumstances, excessive use of the Internet by adolescents may exacerbate family conflict and lack of cohesion. The current study aims to explore these patterns within an intervention study for depressed adolescents.Method: The current study draws upon data collected within the Family Options randomized controlled trial that examined family-based interventions for...

  2. A NEAR REAL-TIME BERYLLIUM MONITOR WITH CAM AND WIPE ANALYSIS CAPABILITIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D.T. Kendrick; Steven Saggese

    2002-12-01

    Science & Engineering Associates, Inc. (SEA), under contract No. DE-AC26-00NT40768, was tasked by the US Department of Energy--National Energy Technology Laboratory to develop and test a near real-time beryllium monitor for airborne and surface measurements. Recent public awareness of the health risks associated with exposure to beryllium has underscored the need for better, faster beryllium monitoring capabilities within the DOE. A near real-time beryllium monitor will offer significant improvements over the baseline monitoring technology currently in use. Whereas the baseline technology relies upon collecting an air sample on a filter and the subsequent analysis of the filter by an analytical laboratory, this effort developed a monitor that offers near real-time measurement results while work is in progress. Since the baseline typically only offers after-the-fact documentation of exposure levels, the near real-time capability provides a significant increase in worker protection. The beryllium monitor developed utilizes laser induced breakdown spectroscopy, or LIBS as the fundamental measurement technology. LIBS has been used in a variety of laboratory and field based instrumentation to provide real-time, and near-real-time elemental analysis capabilities. LIBS is an analytical technique where a pulsed high energy laser beam is focused to a point on the sample to be interrogated. The high energy density produces a small high temperature plasma plume, sometimes called a spark. The conditions within this plasma plume result in the constituent atoms becoming excited and emitting their characteristic optical emissions. The emission light is collected and routed to an optical spectrometer for quantitative spectral analysis. Each element has optical emissions, or lines, of a specific wavelength that can be used to uniquely identify that element. In this application, the intensity of the beryllium emission is used to provide a quantitative measure of the abundance of the

  3. Detection of methylation in promoter sequences by melting curve analysis-based semiquantitative real time PCR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lázcoz Paula

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We present two melting curve analysis (MCA-based semiquantitative real time PCR techniques to detect the promoter methylation status of genes. The first, MCA-MSP, follows the same principle as standard MSP but it is performed in a real time thermalcycler with results being visualized in a melting curve. The second, MCA-Meth, uses a single pair of primers designed with no CpGs in its sequence. These primers amplify both unmethylated and methylated sequences. In clinical applications the MSP technique has revolutionized methylation detection by simplifying the analysis to a PCR-based protocol. MCA-analysis based techniques may be able to further improve and simplify methylation analyses by reducing starting DNA amounts, by introducing an all-in-one tube reaction and by eliminating a final gel stage for visualization of the result. The current study aimed at investigating the feasibility of both MCA-MSP and MCA-Meth in the analysis of promoter methylation, and at defining potential advantages and shortcomings in comparison to currently implemented techniques, i.e. bisulfite sequencing and standard MSP. Methods The promoters of the RASSF1A (3p21.3, BLU (3p21.3 and MGMT (10q26 genes were analyzed by MCA-MSP and MCA-Meth in 13 astrocytoma samples, 6 high grade glioma cell lines and 4 neuroblastoma cell lines. The data were compared with standard MSP and validated by bisulfite sequencing. Results Both, MCA-MSP and MCA-Meth, successfully determined promoter methylation. MCA-MSP provided information similar to standard MSP analyses. However the analysis was possible in a single tube and avoided the gel stage. MCA-Meth proved to be useful in samples with intermediate methylation status, reflected by a melting curve position shift in dependence on methylation extent. Conclusion We propose MCA-MSP and MCA-Meth as alternative or supplementary techniques to MSP or bisulfite sequencing.

  4. Real time analysis with the upgraded LHCb trigger in Run III

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szumlak, Tomasz

    2017-10-01

    The current LHCb trigger system consists of a hardware level, which reduces the LHC bunch-crossing rate of 40 MHz to 1.1 MHz, a rate at which the entire detector is read out. A second level, implemented in a farm of around 20k parallel processing CPUs, the event rate is reduced to around 12.5 kHz. The LHCb experiment plans a major upgrade of the detector and DAQ system in the LHC long shutdown II (2018-2019). In this upgrade, a purely software based trigger system is being developed and it will have to process the full 30 MHz of bunch crossings with inelastic collisions. LHCb will also receive a factor of 5 increase in the instantaneous luminosity, which further contributes to the challenge of reconstructing and selecting events in real time with the CPU farm. We discuss the plans and progress towards achieving efficient reconstruction and selection with a 30 MHz throughput. Another challenge is to exploit the increased signal rate that results from removing the 1.1 MHz readout bottleneck, combined with the higher instantaneous luminosity. Many charm hadron signals can be recorded at up to 50 times higher rate. LHCb is implementing a new paradigm in the form of real time data analysis, in which abundant signals are recorded in a reduced event format that can be fed directly to the physics analyses. These data do not need any further offline event reconstruction, which allows a larger fraction of the grid computing resources to be devoted to Monte Carlo productions. We discuss how this real-time analysis model is absolutely critical to the LHCb upgrade, and how it will evolve during Run-II.

  5. Real-Time Earthquake Intensity Estimation Using Streaming Data Analysis of Social and Physical Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kropivnitskaya, Yelena; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Qin, Jinhui; Bauer, Michael A.

    2017-06-01

    Earthquake intensity is one of the key components of the decision-making process for disaster response and emergency services. Accurate and rapid intensity calculations can help to reduce total loss and the number of casualties after an earthquake. Modern intensity assessment procedures handle a variety of information sources, which can be divided into two main categories. The first type of data is that derived from physical sensors, such as seismographs and accelerometers, while the second type consists of data obtained from social sensors, such as witness observations of the consequences of the earthquake itself. Estimation approaches using additional data sources or that combine sources from both data types tend to increase intensity uncertainty due to human factors and inadequate procedures for temporal and spatial estimation, resulting in precision errors in both time and space. Here we present a processing approach for the real-time analysis of streams of data from both source types. The physical sensor data is acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismic network in California and the social sensor data is based on Twitter user observations. First, empirical relationships between tweet rate and observed Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) are developed using data from the M6.0 South Napa, CAF earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. Second, the streams of both data types are analyzed together in simulated real-time to produce one intensity map. The second implementation is based on IBM InfoSphere Streams, a cloud platform for real-time analytics of big data. To handle large processing workloads for data from various sources, it is deployed and run on a cloud-based cluster of virtual machines. We compare the quality and evolution of intensity maps from different data sources over 10-min time intervals immediately following the earthquake. Results from the joint analysis shows that it provides more complete coverage, with better accuracy and higher

  6. Development of a rugged handheld device for real-time analysis of heart rate: entropy in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejaddam, Ali Y; van der Wilden, Gwendolyn M; Chang, Yuchiao; Cropano, Catrina M; Sideris, Antonis C; Hwabejire, John O; Velmahos, George C; Alam, Hasan B; de Moya, Marc A; King, David R

    2013-01-01

    The usefulness of heart rate variability (HRV) and heart rate complexity (HRC) analysis as a potential triage tool has been limited by the inability to perform real-time analysis on a portable, handheld monitoring platform. Through a multidisciplinary effort of academia and industry, we report on the development of a rugged, handheld and noninvasive device that provides HRV and HRC analysis in real-time in critically ill patients. After extensive re-engineering, real-time HRV and HRC analyses were incorporated into an existing, rugged, handheld monitoring platform. Following IRB approval, the prototype device was used to monitor 20 critically ill patients and 20 healthy controls to demonstrate real-world discriminatory potential. Patients were compared to healthy controls using a Student?s t test as well as repeated measures analysis. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for HRV and HRC. Critically ill patients had a mean APACHE-2 score of 15, and over 50% were mechanically ventilated and requiring vasopressor support. HRV and HRC were both lower in the critically ill patients compared to healthy controls (p analysis. The area under the ROC for HRV and HRC was 0.95 and 0.93, respectively. This is the first demonstration of real-time, handheld HRV and HRC analysis. This prototype device successfully discriminates critically ill patients from healthy controls. This may open up possibilities for real-world use as a trauma triage tool, particularly on the battlefield. 2013.

  7. The Factor Structure in Equity Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Jacobs, Kris

    Principal component analysis of equity options on Dow-Jones firms reveals a strong factor structure. The first principal component explains 77% of the variation in the equity volatility level, 77% of the variation in the equity option skew, and 60% of the implied volatility term structure across...... equities. Furthermore, the first principal component has a 92% correlation with S&P500 index option volatility, a 64% correlation with the index option skew, and a 80% correlation with the index option term structure. We develop an equity option valuation model that captures this factor structure...

  8. High sensitivity LPG Mach-Zehnder sensor for real-time fuel conformity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osório, Jonas H.; Mosquera, L.; Gouveia, Carlos J.; Biazoli, Claudecir R.; Hayashi, Juliano G.; Jorge, Pedro A. S.; Cordeiro, Cristiano M. B.

    2013-01-01

    A high sensitivity refractive index sensor based on the combination of mechanically induced long period gratings (LPG) and fiber tapers was developed for real-time fuel quality analysis. The sensor was built in a Mach-Zehnder configuration by employing a pair of in-series gratings. In order to enhance sensor sensitivity, the region between both LPGs was tapered down from 125 to 10 µm. The system was tested by measuring water concentration in ethanol and ethanol concentration in commercial gasoline. The tapered sensor has shown an average sensitivity of 930 nm/RIU, 18 times higher than the non-tapered version. The resolution limit of the system using spectral interrogation was estimated to be 0.06% of ethanol dissolved in gasoline. For the purpose of real-time monitoring, an interrogation system based on white light interferometry (WLI) and virtual instrumentation was employed to evaluate ethanol evaporation in water, avoiding the use of spectral analysis. The WLI system, using phase tracking techniques, enabled us to record the evolution of the ethanol concentration in water with a resolution of 0.005% (v/v).

  9. Analysis of Real Overvoltage Disturbances by Using Nonstationary Signal Processing Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VUJOSEVIC, S.

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Switching surges can cause voltage conditions degradation, and this paper presents a new approach in their analysis. Besides the amplitude properties, regarding to power quality, it is important to know the structure of their harmonic spectrum. For that purpose, characteristic surges (energization and deenergization of an unloaded 35 kV underground cable, energization of an unloaded 10 kV underground cable and deenergization of a 10 kV overhead line, with a multiple appearance of the arc between the circuit breaker contacts were analyzed. The signals were obtained by an experiment, so the occurrence of noise makes them much more complex to analyze than the simulated ones. Their harmonic decomposition was performed by digital signal processing methods - Empirical Mode Decomposition and Short Time Fourier Transform. The obtained results were compared to the calculated ones, which allowed us to draw conclusions related to applied methods efficiency and characteristic harmonics values that occur during the switching surges. The performed analysis allows us to get a deeper insight into transient processes in the real transmission power lines. The obtained results can be especially useful to detect the locations of occurrence of various types of surges and for development of real-time power quality monitoring systems.

  10. Independent component analysis algorithm FPGA design to perform real-time blind source separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Baese, Uwe; Odom, Crispin; Botella, Guillermo; Meyer-Baese, Anke

    2015-05-01

    The conditions that arise in the Cocktail Party Problem prevail across many fields creating a need for of Blind Source Separation. The need for BSS has become prevalent in several fields of work. These fields include array processing, communications, medical signal processing, and speech processing, wireless communication, audio, acoustics and biomedical engineering. The concept of the cocktail party problem and BSS led to the development of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) algorithms. ICA proves useful for applications needing real time signal processing. The goal of this research was to perform an extensive study on ability and efficiency of Independent Component Analysis algorithms to perform blind source separation on mixed signals in software and implementation in hardware with a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). The Algebraic ICA (A-ICA), Fast ICA, and Equivariant Adaptive Separation via Independence (EASI) ICA were examined and compared. The best algorithm required the least complexity and fewest resources while effectively separating mixed sources. The best algorithm was the EASI algorithm. The EASI ICA was implemented on hardware with Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) to perform and analyze its performance in real time.

  11. Rapid differentiation of mycobacteria by simplex real-time PCR with melting temperature calling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, L; Yin, X; Wang, Q

    2015-09-01

    This study aimed to develop a rapid, simple and cost-effective method for the differentiation of Mycobacterium species. A total of 80 clinical mycobacterial isolates belonging to 12 different species and 16 reference strains of 16 different species were differentiated by the simplex real-time PCR coupled with melting temperature calling analysis. By comparing their melting profiles with those of the reference strains, all clinical mycobacterial isolates were differentiated as Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex or nontuberculous mycobacteria, and the latter were further divided into five groups. In comparison with 16S-23S internal transcribed spacer sequencing method as the gold standard method, both sensitivity and specificity of the assay were 100% when it was used for the differentiation between Myco. tuberculosis complex and nontuberculous mycobacteria. The simplex real-time PCR coupled with melting temperature calling analysis could be an alternative method for the differentiation between Myco. tuberculosis complex and nontuberculous mycobacteria. Rapid differentiation of mycobacteria could shorten the diagnostic time of mycobacterial diseases. It is also helpful for achieving optimal therapy and appropriate patient management. © 2015 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  12. FPGA Based Real-time Network Traffic Analysis using Traffic Dispersion Patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, F; Gokhale, M; Chuah, C N

    2010-03-26

    The problem of Network Traffic Classification (NTC) has attracted significant amount of interest in the research community, offering a wide range of solutions at various levels. The core challenge is in addressing high amounts of traffic diversity found in today's networks. The problem becomes more challenging if a quick detection is required as in the case of identifying malicious network behavior or new applications like peer-to-peer traffic that have potential to quickly throttle the network bandwidth or cause significant damage. Recently, Traffic Dispersion Graphs (TDGs) have been introduced as a viable candidate for NTC. The TDGs work by forming a network wide communication graphs that embed characteristic patterns of underlying network applications. However, these patterns need to be quickly evaluated for mounting real-time response against them. This paper addresses these concerns and presents a novel solution for real-time analysis of Traffic Dispersion Metrics (TDMs) in the TDGs. We evaluate the dispersion metrics of interest and present a dedicated solution on an FPGA for their analysis. We also present analytical measures and empirically evaluate operating effectiveness of our design. The mapped design on Virtex-5 device can process 7.4 million packets/second for a TDG comprising of 10k flows at very high accuracies of over 96%.

  13. Real-time automated failure analysis for on-orbit operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Sarah; Lauritsen, Janet; Pack, Ginger; Ha, Anhhoang; Jowers, Steven; Mcnenny, Robert; Truong, The; Dell, James

    1993-01-01

    A system which is to provide real-time failure analysis support to controllers at the NASA Johnson Space Center Control Center Complex (CCC) for both Space Station and Space Shuttle on-orbit operations is described. The system employs monitored systems' models of failure behavior and model evaluation algorithms which are domain-independent. These failure models are viewed as a stepping stone to more robust algorithms operating over models of intended function. The described system is designed to meet two sets of requirements. It must provide a useful failure analysis capability enhancement to the mission controller. It must satisfy CCC operational environment constraints such as cost, computer resource requirements, verification, and validation. The underlying technology and how it may be used to support operations is also discussed.

  14. Surrogate analysis and index developer (SAID) tool and real-time data dissemination utilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domanski, Marian M.; Straub, Timothy D.; Wood, Molly S.; Landers, Mark N.; Wall, Gary R.; Brady, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    The use of acoustic and other parameters as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) in rivers has been successful in multiple applications across the Nation. Critical to advancing the operational use of surrogates are tools to process and evaluate the data along with the subsequent development of regression models from which real-time sediment concentrations can be made available to the public. Recent developments in both areas are having an immediate impact on surrogate research, and on surrogate monitoring sites currently in operation. The Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) standalone tool, under development by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), assists in the creation of regression models that relate response and explanatory variables by providing visual and quantitative diagnostics to the user. SAID also processes acoustic parameters to be used as explanatory variables for suspended-sediment concentrations. The sediment acoustic method utilizes acoustic parameters from fixed-mount stationary equipment. The background theory and method used by the tool have been described in recent publications, and the tool also serves to support sediment-acoustic-index methods being drafted by the multi-agency Sediment Acoustic Leadership Team (SALT), and other surrogate guidelines like USGS Techniques and Methods 3-C4 for turbidity and SSC. The regression models in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water-quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

  15. Valuation Bases and Accounting System Entries in Financial Analysis of the Municipal Real Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Feschiyan

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces a conceptual framework for an accounting of the municipal real property, and defines a respective system of indicators. The development of this framework is seen as an important prerequisite for the efficient property management. It aims to overcome the lack or poor accessibility of the information, and thus to ensure the successful municipal real property management in a strategic context. The developing of the applied approach implies that accounting indicators are divided into three main groups – values, revenues, and costs. Beside the above mentioned classification, the municipal revenues and costs are classified also as existing and proposed. The existing indicators are defined by International Accounting Standards in public sector, and some of them are considered as being appropriate for the inclusion in the financial analysis as accounting system entries. The proposed indicators are perceived as appropriate to carry out a detailed analysis of the municipal property at a lower level of desegregations. The first two paragraphs explain the main bases for the municipal property valuation - historical cost, current price, market value, present value, with a special emphasis on the use of the historical value, and the types of valuation respectively. The next three paragraphs are concentrated mainly on the accounting indicators for the municipal property assessment. The sixth paragraph represents several major accounting bases - an accounting value, a carrying value, a market value, an accumulated depreciation, revenues from the sale of assets and services, costs by economic elements, revenues from future periods and costs for future periods, and revenues from other events and costs for other events. The seventh section presents a brief comparative analysis of accounting systems of 6 municipalities in South-Eastern Europe and the last paragraph highlights the identified “good practices”.

  16. Prospective analysis of the use of OnabotulinumtoxinA (BOTOX) in the treatment of chronic migraine; real-life data in 254 patients from Hull, U.K.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Modar; Zafar, Hassan W; Quarshie, Victoria; Ahmed, Fayyaz

    2014-09-01

    Chronic migraine affects 2% of the population. It results in substantial disability and reduced quality of life. Medications used for prophylaxis in episodic migraine may also work in chronic migraine. The efficacy and safety of OnabotulinumtoxinA (BOTOX) in adults with chronic migraine was confirmed in the PREEMPT programme. However, there are few real-life data of its use. 254 adults with chronic migraine were injected with OnabotulinumtoxinA BOTOX as per PREEMPT Protocol between July 2010 and May 2013, their headache data were collected using the Hull headache diary and analysed to look for headache, migraine days decrements, crystal clear days increment in the month post treatment, we looked at the 50% responder rate as well. Our prospective analysis shows that OnabotulinumtoxinA, significantly, reduced the number of headache and migraine days, and increased the number of headache free days. OnabotulinumtoxinA Botox also improved patients' quality of life. We believe that these results represent the largest post-marketing cohort of patients treated with OnabotulinumtoxinA in the real-life clinical setting. OnabotulinumtoxinA is a valuable addition to current treatment options in patients with chronic migraine. Our results support findings of PREEMPT study in a large cohort of patients, we believe, is representative of the patients seen in an average tertiary headache centre. While it can be used as a first line prophylaxis its cost may restrict its use to more refractory patients who failed three oral preventive treatments.

  17. Analysis of actuator delay and its effect on uncertainty quantification for real-time hybrid simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng; Xu, Weijie; Guo, Tong; Chen, Kai

    2017-10-01

    Uncertainties in structure properties can result in different responses in hybrid simulations. Quantification of the effect of these uncertainties would enable researchers to estimate the variances of structural responses observed from experiments. This poses challenges for real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) due to the existence of actuator delay. Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) projects the model outputs on a basis of orthogonal stochastic polynomials to account for influences of model uncertainties. In this paper, PCE is utilized to evaluate effect of actuator delay on the maximum displacement from real-time hybrid simulation of a single degree of freedom (SDOF) structure when accounting for uncertainties in structural properties. The PCE is first applied for RTHS without delay to determine the order of PCE, the number of sample points as well as the method for coefficients calculation. The PCE is then applied to RTHS with actuator delay. The mean, variance and Sobol indices are compared and discussed to evaluate the effects of actuator delay on uncertainty quantification for RTHS. Results show that the mean and the variance of the maximum displacement increase linearly and exponentially with respect to actuator delay, respectively. Sensitivity analysis through Sobol indices also indicates the influence of the single random variable decreases while the coupling effect increases with the increase of actuator delay.

  18. Real-time breath gas analysis of CO and CO2 using an EC-QCL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghorbani, Ramin; Schmidt, Florian M.

    2017-05-01

    Real-time breath gas analysis is a promising, non-invasive tool in medical diagnostics, and well-suited to investigate the physiology of carbon monoxide (CO), a potential biomarker for oxidative stress and respiratory diseases. A sensor for precise, breath-cycle resolved, simultaneous detection of exhaled CO (eCO) and carbon dioxide (eCO2) was developed based on a continuous wave, external-cavity quantum cascade laser (EC-QCL), a low-volume multi-pass cell and wavelength modulation spectroscopy. The system achieves a noise-equivalent (1σ) sensitivity of 8.5 × 10-8 cm-1 Hz-1/2 and (2σ) detection limits of 9 ± 2 ppbv and 650 ± 7 ppmv at 0.14 s spectrum acquisition time for CO and CO2, respectively. Integration over 15 s yields a precision of 0.6 ppbv for CO. The fact that the eCO2 expirograms measured by capnography and laser spectroscopy have essentially identical shape confirms true real-time detection. It is found that the individual eCO exhalation profiles from healthy non-smokers have a slightly different shape than the eCO2 profiles and exhibit a clear dependence on exhalation flow rate and breath-holding time. Detection of indoor air CO and broadband breath profiling across the 93 cm-1 mode-hop-free tuning range of the EC-QCL are also demonstrated.

  19. XRTD: An X-Windows based, real-time radiometric display and analysis system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollmeier, Vincent M.

    1993-01-01

    XRTD is a graphical user interface (GUI) based tool for monitoring real time radiometric spacecraft data. The tool is designed to allow the navigation analyst to both view and analyze the characteristics of Doppler and ranging data. This capability is critical if ground personnel wish to verify the correct performance of ongoing maneuvers. The raw tracking data is transferred from Deep Space Network (DSN) computers to a local workstation, where the predicted value for the observable is subtracted from the actual observed value to create a residual. The tool then allows the navigation analyst to rescale and replot the data using simple GUI techniques. The navigator may then perform a number of data analysis and modeling techniques on the resulting residuals to allow for the real time characterization of spacecraft events. These techniques include the modeling of maneuvers, the compression and differencing of data, and Fast Fourier transforms of the data. This tool has shortened the amount of time required for initial characterization of spacecraft maneuvers from several hours to a few minutes.

  20. Tendency for interlaboratory precision in the GMO analysis method based on real-time PCR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodama, Takashi; Kurosawa, Yasunori; Kitta, Kazumi; Naito, Shigehiro

    2010-01-01

    The Horwitz curve estimates interlaboratory precision as a function only of concentration, and is frequently used as a method performance criterion in food analysis with chemical methods. The quantitative biochemical methods based on real-time PCR require an analogous criterion to progressively promote method validation. We analyzed the tendency of precision using a simplex real-time PCR technique in 53 collaborative studies of seven genetically modified (GM) crops. Reproducibility standard deviation (SR) and repeatability standard deviation (Sr) of the genetically modified organism (GMO) amount (%) was more or less independent of GM crops (i.e., maize, soybean, cotton, oilseed rape, potato, sugar beet, and rice) and evaluation procedure steps. Some studies evaluated whole steps consisting of DNA extraction and PCR quantitation, whereas others focused only on the PCR quantitation step by using DNA extraction solutions. Therefore, SR and Sr for GMO amount (%) are functions only of concentration similar to the Horwitz curve. We proposed S(R) = 0.1971C 0.8685 and S(r) = 0.1478C 0.8424, where C is the GMO amount (%). We also proposed a method performance index in GMO quantitative methods that is analogous to the Horwitz Ratio.