WorldWideScience

Sample records for reached pandemic proportions

  1. A solution to the online guidance problem for targeted reaches: proportional rate control using relative disparity tau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Joe; Bingham, Geoffrey P

    2010-09-01

    We provide a solution to a major problem in visually guided reaching. Research has shown that binocular vision plays an important role in the online visual guidance of reaching, but the visual information and strategy used to guide a reach remains unknown. We propose a new theory of visual guidance of reaching including a new information variable, tau(alpha) (relative disparity tau), and a novel control strategy that allows actors to guide their reach trajectories visually by maintaining a constant proportion between tau(alpha) and its rate of change. The dynamical model couples the information to the reaching movement to generate trajectories characteristic of human reaching. We tested the theory in two experiments in which participants reached under conditions of darkness to guide a visible point either on a sliding apparatus or on their finger to a point-light target in depth. Slider apparatus controlled for a simple mapping from visual to proprioceptive space. When reaching with their finger, participants were forced, by perturbation of visual information used for feedforward control, to use online control with only binocular disparity-based information for guidance. Statistical analyses of trajectories strongly supported the theory. Simulations of the model were compared statistically to actual reaching trajectories. The results supported the theory, showing that tau(alpha) provides a source of information for the control of visually guided reaching and that participants use this information in a proportional rate control strategy.

  2. Pandemic Flu

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Pandemic Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook ... Planning State and Local Government Planning More 1918 Pandemic Flu Commemoration 100 years later, read about the ...

  3. Pandemics and vaccines: perceptions, reactions, and lessons learned from hard-to-reach Latinos and the H1N1 campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassady, Diana; Castaneda, Xochitl; Ruelas, Magdalena Ruiz; Vostrejs, Meredith Miller; Andrews, Teresa; Osorio, Liliana

    2012-08-01

    This paper examines knowledge, risk perception, and attitudes around the H1N1 pandemic among Latino hard-to-reach (HTR) populations in the United States. Ten focus groups were conducted throughout California (N=90), representing Latino immigrants disproportionately affected by H1N1: farmworkers, indigenous Mexicans, pregnant women, and children. Overall, participants were aware of the H1N1 epidemic and common prevention practices. However, many expressed doubts that the H1N1 outbreak constituted an epidemic because the U.S. media reports of the epidemic in Mexico did not match reports from participants' families in Mexico and because of participants' absence of personal experience with the disease. Participants mistrusted the H1N1 vaccine due to its novelty, conspiracy theories, and inconsistent information. Study findings confirm that vaccination campaign strategies should reflect the diversity of meaning, experiences, and socio-economic realities among target populations. Key findings inform future emergency response activities targeting HTR Latino communities.

  4. Pandemic planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dietz, J. Eric; Black, David R

    2012-01-01

    ... that may arise throughout the process. The book details the threat of pandemic illness and the need and actions required for efficient and effective preparation, prevention, response, and recovery to a pandemic threat at all levels...

  5. Proportionality lost - proportionality regained?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werlauff, Erik

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, the European Court of Justice (the ECJ) seems to have accepted restrictions on the freedom of establishment and other basic freedoms, despite the fact that a more thorough proportionality test would have revealed that the restriction in question did not pass the 'rule of reason' ...

  6. A method for calculating the gas volume proportions and inhalation temperature of inert gas mixtures allowing reaching normothermic or hypothermic target body temperature in the awake rat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques H Abraini

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The noble gases xenon (Xe and helium (He are known to possess neuroprotective properties. Xe is considered the golden standard neuroprotective gas. However, Xe has a higher molecular weight and lower thermal conductivity and specific heat than those of nitrogen, the main diluent of oxygen (O2 in air, conditions that could impair or at least reduce the intrinsic neuroprotective properties of Xe by increasing the critical care patient's respiratory workload and body temperature. In contrast, He has a lower molecular weight and higher thermal conductivity and specific heat than those of nitrogen, but is unfortunately far less potent than Xe at providing neuroprotection. Therefore, combining Xe with He could allow obtaining, depending on the gas inhalation temperature and composition, gas mixtures with neutral or hypothermic properties, the latter being advantageous in term of neuroprotection. However, calculating the thermal properties of a mixture, whatever the substances – gases, metals, rubbers, etc. – is not trivial. To answer this question, we provide a graphical method to assess the volume proportions of Xe, He and O2 that a gas mixture should contain, and the inhalation temperature to which it should be administered to allow a clinician to maintain the patient at a target body temperature.

  7. CRISIS UNDER THE RADAR: ILLICIT AMPHETAMINE USE IS REACHING EPIDEMIC PROPORTIONS AND CONTRIBUTING TO RESOURCE OVER-UTILIZATION AT A LEVEL 1 TRAUMA CENTER.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemma, Vincent A; Chapple, Kristina A; Goslar, Pamela W; Israr, Sharjeel; Petersen, Scott R; Weinberg, Jordan A

    2018-05-21

    Trauma centers reported illicit amphetamine use in approximately 10% of trauma admissions in the previous decade. From experience at a trauma center located in a southwestern metropolis, our perception is that illicit amphetamine use is on the rise, and that these patients utilize in-hospital resources beyond what would be expected for their injuries. The purpose of this study was to document the incidence of illicit amphetamine use among our trauma patients and to evaluate its impact on resource utilization. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using 7 consecutive years of data (starting July 2010) from our institution's trauma registry. Toxicology screenings were used to categorize patients into one of three groups: illicit amphetamine, other drugs, or drug free. Adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used to predict hospital cost, length of stay, ICU admission and ventilation between drug groups. Models were conducted with combined injury severity (ISS) and then repeated for ISS <9, ISS 9-15 and ISS 16 and above. 8,589 patients were categorized into the following three toxicology groups: 1255 (14.6%) illicit amphetamine, 2214 (25.8%) other drugs, and 5120 (59.6%) drug free. Illicit amphetamine use increased threefold over the course of the study (from 7.85% to 25.0% of annual trauma admissions). Adjusted linear models demonstrated that illicit amphetamine among patients with ISS<9 was associated with 4.6% increase in hospital cost (P=.019) and 7.4% increase in LOS (P=.043). Logistic models revealed significantly increased odds of ventilation across all ISS groups and increased odds of ICU admission when all ISS groups were combined (P=.001) and within the ISS<9 group (P=.002). Hospital resource utilization of amphetamine patients with minor injuries is significant. Trauma centers with similar epidemic growth in proportion of amphetamine patients face a potentially significant resource strain relative to other centers. Prognostic and

  8. Proportional reasoning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dole, Shelley; Hilton, Annette; Hilton, Geoff

    2015-01-01

    Proportional reasoning is widely acknowledged as a key to success in school mathematics, yet students’ continual difficulties with proportion-related tasks are well documented. This paper draws on a large research study that aimed to support 4th to 9th grade teachers to design and implement tasks...

  9. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  10. Preparing ICUs for pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Lucinda E K; Webb, Steve A R

    2013-10-01

    Influenza pandemics occur intermittently and represent an existential global infectious diseases threat. The purpose of this review is to describe clinical and research preparedness for future pandemics. Pandemic influenza typically results in large numbers of individuals with life-threatening pneumonia requiring treatment in ICUs. Clinical preparedness of ICUs relates to planning to provide increased 'surge' capacity to meet increased demand and requires consideration of staffing, equipment and consumables, bed-space availability and management systems. Research preparedness is also necessary, as timely clinical research has the potential to change the trajectory of a pandemic. The clinical research response during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic was suboptimal. Better planning is necessary to optimize both clinical and research responses to future pandemics.

  11. Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

    2009-07-01

    Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15(th) June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation.The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with

  12. Mitigation Approaches to Combat the Flu Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

    2009-01-01

    Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15th June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its

  13. The Pandemic and its Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Qiu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Pandemic has a long history, but the term of “pandemic” is still not been defined by many medical texts. There have been many significant pandemics recorded in human history, and the pandemic related crises have caused enormous negative impacts on health, economies, and even national security in the world. This article will explore the literature for the concept and history of pandemics; summarises the key features of a pandemics, and discusses the negative impacts on health, economy, social and global security of pandemics and disease outbreaks.

  14. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  15. Influenza pandemic planning guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-15

    An influenza pandemic will have serious economic impacts on the natural gas industry due to absenteeism as well as downstream effects due to supply disruption.This guide was prepared to assist gas distribution companies in planning for an influenza epidemic. The guide aimed to minimize the risks that an influenza pandemic might pose to the health and safety of employees and the continuity of business operations. The guide discussed 5 critical aspects of emergency planning: (1) prevention and threat mitigation; (2) preparedness; (3) response; (4) business continuity; and (5) communication. The legal context of the emergency plans were discussed. The plans were also discussed to other essential infrastructure emergency response plans. Recommendations were presented for infection control, decentralization and access restriction. Outlines for pandemic response planning teams and training and exercise programs were provided. Issues related to alert, mobilization, and response procedures were also discussed. 10 refs., 3 tabs., 1 fig.

  16. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Lipsitch

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir, combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness. Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance

  17. Characteristic of pandemic virus

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Characteristic of pandemic virus. The virus was highly transmissible. Risk of hospitalization was 2X and risk of death was about 11X more in comparison to seasonal influenza. Virus continues to be susceptible to Osaltamivir, the only drug available. Vaccines are available but ...

  18. Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-09-01

    Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Multiwire proportional chamber development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolittle, R. F.; Pollvogt, U.; Eskovitz, A. J.

    1973-01-01

    The development of large area multiwire proportional chambers, to be used as high resolution spatial detectors in cosmic ray experiments is described. A readout system was developed which uses a directly coupled, lumped element delay-line whose characteristics are independent of the MWPC design. A complete analysis of the delay-line and the readout electronic system shows that a spatial resolution of about 0.1 mm can be reached with the MWPC operating in the strictly proportional region. This was confirmed by measurements with a small MWPC and Fe-55 X-rays. A simplified analysis was carried out to estimate the theoretical limit of spatial resolution due to delta-rays, spread of the discharge along the anode wire, and inclined trajectories. To calculate the gas gain of MWPC's of different geometrical configurations a method was developed which is based on the knowledge of the first Townsend coefficient of the chamber gas.

  20. Social justice in pandemic preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBruin, Debra; Liaschenko, Joan; Marshall, Mary Faith

    2012-04-01

    Pandemic influenza planning in the United States violates the demands of social justice in 2 fundamental respects: it embraces the neutrality of procedural justice at the expense of more substantive concern with health disparities, thus perpetuating a predictable and preventable social injustice, and it fails to move beyond lament to practical planning for alleviating barriers to accessing care. A pragmatic social justice approach, addressing both health disparities and access barriers, should inform pandemic preparedness. Achieving social justice goals in pandemic response is challenging, but strategies are available to overcome the obstacles. The public engagement process of one state's pandemic ethics project influenced the development of these strategies.

  1. Inpatient capacity at children's hospitals during pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sills, Marion R; Hall, Matthew; Fieldston, Evan S; Hain, Paul D; Simon, Harold K; Brogan, Thomas V; Fagbuyi, Daniel B; Mundorff, Michael B; Shah, Samir S

    2011-09-01

    Quantifying how close hospitals came to exhausting capacity during the outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 can help the health care system plan for more virulent pandemics. This ecologic analysis used emergency department (ED) and inpatient data from 34 US children's hospitals. For the 11-week pandemic (H1N1) 2009 period during fall 2009, inpatient occupancy reached 95%, which was lower than the 101% occupancy during the 2008-09 seasonal influenza period. Fewer than 1 additional admission per 10 inpatient beds would have caused hospitals to reach 100% occupancy. Using parameters based on historical precedent, we built 5 models projecting inpatient occupancy, varying the ED visit numbers and admission rate for influenza-related ED visits. The 5 scenarios projected median occupancy as high as 132% of capacity. The pandemic did not exhaust inpatient bed capacity, but a more virulent pandemic has the potential to push children's hospitals past their maximum inpatient capacity.

  2. Natality Decline and Miscarriages Associated With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: The Scandinavian and United States Experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bloom-Feshbach, Kimberly; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cecile

    2011-01-01

    Background. Although pregnancy is a recognized risk factor for severe influenza infection, the effect of influenza on miscarriages and births remains unclear. We examined the relationship between influenza and birth rates during the 1918 pandemic in the United States, Denmark, Sweden, and Norway...... of peak pandemic exposure and depressions in birth rates, and identified pregnancy stages at risk of influenza-related miscarriage. Results. Birth rates declined in all study populations in spring 1919 by a mean of 2.2 births per 1000 persons, representing a 5%–15% drop below baseline levels (P ...). The 1919 natality depression reached its trough 6.1–6.8 months after the autumn pandemic peak, suggesting that missing births were attributable to excess first trimester miscarriages in ∼1 in 10 women who were pregnant during the peak of the pandemic. Pandemic-related mortality was insufficient to explain...

  3. Influenza pandemics and avian flu

    OpenAIRE

    Fleming, Douglas

    2005-01-01

    Douglas Fleming is general practitioner in a large suburban practice in Birmingham. In this article he seeks to clarify clinical issues relating to potential pandemics of influenza, including avian influenza

  4. Pandemic Influenza: Domestic Preparedness Efforts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lister, Sarah A

    2005-01-01

    .... Though influenza pandemics occur with some regularity, and the United States has been involved in specific planning efforts since the early 1990s, the H5N1 situation has created a sense of urgency...

  5. Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-06-01

    In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.

  6. Why Pandemic Response is Unique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækkeskov, Erik; Rubin, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    , the case studies of media coverage in the USA and Denmark demonstrate that the response was bureaucratized in the public health agencies (CDC and DMHA, respectively). Hence, while natural disaster responses appear to follow a political logic, the response to pandemics appears to be more strongly instituted......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show that 2009 H1N1 “swine” influenza pandemic vaccination policies deviated from predictions established in the theory of political survival, and to propose that pandemic response deviated because it was ruled by bureaucratized experts rather than...... by elected politicians. Design/methodology/approach – Focussing on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the paper employs descriptive statistical analysis of vaccination policies in nine western democracies. To probe the plausibility of the novel explanation, it uses quantitative and qualitative content analyses of media...

  7. Proportionality for Military Leaders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Brown, Gary D

    2000-01-01

    .... Especially lacking is a realization that there are four distinct types of proportionality. In determining whether a particular resort to war is just, national leaders must consider the proportionality of the conflict (i.e...

  8. Reaching the hard to reach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhiwandi, P; Campbell, M; Potts, M

    1994-01-01

    The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development proposed increasing contraceptive couple protection from 550 million in 1995 to 880 million in 2015. The task for family planning (FP) programs is to provide access to services for, sometimes, inaccessible rural populations. FP need based on desire for no more children has ranged from under 20% in Senegal to almost 80% in Peru. Socioeconomic development was found not to be a prerequisite for fertility change. Gender inequalities in education and social autonomy must be changed. FP access is very important among women with a disadvantaged background or among women unsure about FP. Bangladesh is a good example of a country with increased contraceptive prevalence despite low income. The rule of thumb is that contraception increases of 15% contribute to a drop in family size of about one child. Program effectiveness is related to a variety of factors: contraceptive availability at many locations, acceptable price of contraception, delivery of the oral contraceptives without prescriptions, and other strategies. FP is a service not a medical treatment. A range of methods must be promoted and available from a range of facilities. Contraceptive use is dependent on the woman's stage in her lifecycle and is dependent on informed choice. Community-based distribution systems are effective, whereas free distribution by poorly-trained field workers is not always very effective because patient payment of all or part of the cost assures quality and freedom of choice. Effective programs for underprivileged groups involve aggressive, easy to manage programs that can be replicated rapidly. FP serves a useful function in depressing maternal mortality among the poor in Africa, who have no access to quality health services. Social marketing is an effective strategy for reaching remote areas. Political will and robust management are necessary commodities.

  9. [Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

    2011-10-01

    To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the

  10. Preparing for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittbenner, Richard

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses the things college leaders should know and do in case of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The author talks about four principles that will guide college leaders in developing a pandemic influenza plan and presents the 10 elements of an effective college pandemic planning process.

  11. The Principle of Proportionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Morten; Meisner Nielsen, Kasper

    2005-01-01

    Recent policy initiatives within the harmonization of European company laws have promoted a so-called "principle of proportionality" through proposals that regulate mechanisms opposing a proportional distribution of ownership and control. We scrutinize the foundation for these initiatives...... in relationship to the process of harmonization of the European capital markets.JEL classifications: G30, G32, G34 and G38Keywords: Ownership Structure, Dual Class Shares, Pyramids, EU companylaws....

  12. Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

    2013-11-01

    Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Pandemic ventilator rationing and appeals processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

    2011-06-01

    In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans.

  14. The cost effectiveness of pandemic influenza interventions: a pandemic severity based analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. METHODS: A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR, using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. RESULTS: Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5% the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1% this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03% the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75% the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. CONCLUSIONS: The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in

  15. The Cost Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, George J.; Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K.

    2013-01-01

    Background The impact of a newly emerged influenza pandemic will depend on its transmissibility and severity. Understanding how these pandemic features impact on the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies is important for pandemic planning. Methods A cost effectiveness analysis of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies intended to mitigate a future pandemic was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ∼30,000 in Australia. Six pandemic severity categories were defined based on case fatality ratio (CFR), using data from the 2009/2010 pandemic to relate hospitalisation rates to CFR. Results Intervention strategies combining school closure with antiviral treatment and prophylaxis are the most cost effective strategies in terms of cost per life year saved (LYS) for all severity categories. The cost component in the cost per LYS ratio varies depending on pandemic severity: for a severe pandemic (CFR of 2.5%) the cost is ∼$9 k per LYS; for a low severity pandemic (CFR of 0.1%) this strategy costs ∼$58 k per LYS; for a pandemic with very low severity similar to the 2009 pandemic (CFR of 0.03%) the cost is ∼$155 per LYS. With high severity pandemics (CFR >0.75%) the most effective attack rate reduction strategies are also the most cost effective. During low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, while for high severity pandemics costs are dominated by hospitalisation costs and productivity losses due to death. Conclusions The most cost effective strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic involve combining sustained social distancing with the use of antiviral agents. For low severity pandemics the most cost effective strategies involve antiviral treatment, prophylaxis and short durations of school closure; while these are cost effective they are less effective than other strategies in reducing the

  16. Swine flu - A pandemic outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jini George

    Full Text Available Hippocrates had described influenza like outbreak in 412 B.C. and since then repeated influenza like epidemics and pandemics have been recorded in recent times. One of the greatest killers of all time was the pandemic of swine flu (Spanish flu of 1918-1919, when 230 million people died. Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5–15% of the global population, resulting in severe illness in 3–5 million patients causing 250,000–500,000 deaths worldwide. Severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly and chronically ill patients. The 2009 outbreak of swine flu is thought to be a mutation more specifically a reassortment of four known strains of influenza A virus subtype H1N1; one endemic in humans, one endemic in birds, and two endemic in pigs. WHO officially declared the outbreak to be a pandemic on June 11, 2009, but stressed that the new designation was a result of the global "spread of the virus," not its severity. [Vet World 2009; 2(12.000: 472-474

  17. School Absenteeism As an Adjunct Surveillance Indicator: Experience during the Second Wave of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in Quebec, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kom Mogto, Christelle Aïcha; De Serres, Gaston; Douville Fradet, Monique; Lebel, Germain; Toutant, Steve; Gilca, Rodica; Ouakki, Manale; Janjua, Naveed Zafar; Skowronski, Danuta M.

    2012-01-01

    Background A school absenteeism surveillance system was implemented in the province of Quebec, Canada during the second wave of the 2009 H1N1pandemic. This paper compares this surveillance approach with other available indicators. Method All (3432) elementary and high schools from Quebec were included. Each school was required to report through a web-based system any day where the proportion of students absent for influenza-like illness (ILI) exceeded 10% of current school enrolment. Results Between October 18 and December 12 2009, 35.6% of all schools met the 10% absenteeism threshold. This proportion was greater in elementary compared to high schools (40% vs 19%) and in smaller compared to larger schools (44% vs 22%). The maximum absenteeism rate was reached the first day of reporting or within the next two days in 55% and 31% of schools respectively. The first reports and subsequent peak in school absenteeism provincially preceded the peak in paediatric hospitalization by two and one weeks, respectively. Trends in school surveillance otherwise mirrored other indicators. Conclusion During a pandemic, school outbreak surveillance based on a 10% threshold appears insufficient to trigger timely intervention within a given affected school. However, school surveillance appears well-correlated and slightly anticipatory compared to other population indicators. As such, school absenteeism warrants further evaluation as an adjunct surveillance indicator whose overall utility will depend upon specified objectives, and other existing capacity for monitoring and response. PMID:22479531

  18. Virulence determinants of pandemic influenza viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tscherne, Donna M.; García-Sastre, Adolfo

    2011-01-01

    Influenza A viruses cause recurrent, seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics with devastating levels of morbidity and mortality. The ability of influenza A viruses to adapt to various hosts and undergo reassortment events ensures constant generation of new strains with unpredictable degrees of pathogenicity, transmissibility, and pandemic potential. Currently, the combination of factors that drives the emergence of pandemic influenza is unclear, making it impossible to foresee the details of a future outbreak. Identification and characterization of influenza A virus virulence determinants may provide insight into genotypic signatures of pathogenicity as well as a more thorough understanding of the factors that give rise to pandemics. PMID:21206092

  19. Prisons' preparedness for pandemic flu and the ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van't Hoff, G; Fedosejeva, R; Mihailescu, L

    2009-06-01

    In Europe at any given time there are about 1,8 million people imprisoned in penal institutions. About 1 million personnel are working in prisons. With prisons, from the start there are fundamental problems in many parts of Europe. Poor housing conditions in prisons and a high proportion of prisoners who already suffer from severe health problems mean the chance of an outbreak in prison during a pandemic must be quite high. We expect it can be up to 90%. In this article we explain what the characteristics are of the prison population from a health point of view. A high rate of detainees suffers from mental health disorders and/or addiction. A high prevalence of communicable and infectious diseases is the rule, not an exception. According to the European Prison Rules and many other international rules, statements and documents prison health care should be an integral part of the public health system of any country. However, it has to be accepted that the prison population is the least popular in society and in politics. In reality in many countries in Europe the situation in prison cannot meet the level strived for by the European Prison Rules. We compare preparedness on pandemic flu in The Netherlands, Latvia and Romania. We explore the problems and ethical issues that may arise if a pandemic breaks out. There are three ethical dilemmas that require consideration: equivalence of care and prisoners' right to health care; prisoners' interests verses society's interests; countries in need and calls for bilateral help.

  20. Biochemical fingerprinting of Vibrio parahaemolyticus by the PhenePlate system: comparison between pandemic and non-pandemic serotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mokhlasur; Bhuiyan, N A; Kuhn, I; Ramamurthy, T; Rahman, M; Mollby, R; Nair, G Balakrish

    2006-10-01

    During recent years a pandemic clone of Vibrio parahaemolyticus has emerged. Isolates of this clone are distributed among several serotypes, but are genotypically related. In the present study, a phenotyping method (biochemical fingerprinting) was used to characterize pandemic and non-pandemic isolates belonging to V. parahaemolyticus. It was found that the pandemic isolates showed a high level of phenotypic homogeneity and a majority of the pandemic isolates belonged to the same biochemical phenotype, whereas non-pandemic V. parahemolyticus isolates were more heterogeneous. In conclusion, biochemical fingerprinting of V. parahaemolyticus can be used as a first screening method to differentiate between pandemic and non-pandemic isolates of V. parahaemolyticus.

  1. Economic and policy implications of pandemic influenza.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.; Brown, Theresa Jean; Warren, Drake E.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-03-01

    Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.

  2. Reflections on pandemics, past and present.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchat, Anne

    2011-06-01

    The author reflects on her personal experiences during the 2009 H1N1 influenza, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemics. The roles played by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention related to pregnancy-associated influenza during the 2009 pandemic are described. Risk communication principles are summarized and resources provided. Published by Mosby, Inc.

  3. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.

  4. Pandemic Influenza Pediatric Office Plan Template

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    This is a planning tool developed by pediatric stakeholders that is intended to assist pediatric medical offices that have no pandemic influenza plan in place, but may experience an increase in patient calls/visits or workload due to pandemic influenza.

  5. Restrictions and Proportionality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werlauff, Erik

    2009-01-01

    The article discusses three central aspects of the freedoms under European Community law, namely 1) the prohibition against restrictions as an important extension of the prohibition against discrimination, 2) a prohibition against exit restrictions which is just as important as the prohibition...... against host country restrictions, but which is often not recognised to the same extent by national law, and 3) the importance of also identifying and recognising an exit restriction, so that it is possible to achieve the required test of appropriateness and proportionality in relation to the rule...

  6. The divine proportion

    CERN Document Server

    Huntley, H E

    1970-01-01

    Using simple mathematical formulas, most as basic as Pythagoras's theorem and requiring only a very limited knowledge of mathematics, Professor Huntley explores the fascinating relationship between geometry and aesthetics. Poetry, patterns like Pascal's triangle, philosophy, psychology, music, and dozens of simple mathematical figures are enlisted to show that the ""divine proportion"" or ""golden ratio"" is a feature of geometry and analysis which awakes answering echoes in the human psyche. When we judge a work of art aesthetically satisfying, according to his formulation, we are making it c

  7. A nuclear proportional counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1973-01-01

    The invention relates to a nuclear proportional counter comprising in a bulb filled with a low-pressure gas, a wire forming an anode and a cathode, characterized in that said cathode is constituted by two plane plates parallel to each other and to the anode wire, and in that two branches of a circuit are connected to the anode wire end-portions, each branch comprising a pre-amplifier, a measuring circuit consisting of a differentiator-integrator-differentiator amplifier and a zero detector, one of the branches comprising an adjustable delay circuit, both branches jointly attacking a conversion circuit for converting the pulse duration into amplitudes said conversion circuit being followed by a multi-channel analyzer, contingently provided with a recorder [fr

  8. Load proportional safety brake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacciola, M. J.

    1979-01-01

    This brake is a self-energizing mechanical friction brake and is intended for use in a rotary drive system. It incorporates a torque sensor which cuts power to the power unit on any overload condition. The brake is capable of driving against an opposing load or driving, paying-out, an aiding load in either direction of rotation. The brake also acts as a no-back device when torque is applied to the output shaft. The advantages of using this type of device are: (1) low frictional drag when driving; (2) smooth paying-out of an aiding load with no runaway danger; (3) energy absorption proportional to load; (4) no-back activates within a few degrees of output shaft rotation and resets automatically; and (5) built-in overload protection.

  9. Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to �the basic relationship of the economic growth� by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

  10. Macroeconomic Proportions and Corellations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Mitrut

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The work is focusing on the main proportions and correlations which are being set up between the major macroeconomic indicators. This is the general frame for the analysis of the relations between the Gross Domestic Product growth rate and the unemployment rate; the interaction between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate; the connection between the GDP growth rate and the inflation rate. Within the analysis being performed, a particular attention is paid to “the basic relationship of the economic growth” by emphasizing the possibilities as to a factorial analysis of the macroeconomic development, mainly as far as the Gross Domestic Product is concerned. At this point, the authors are introducing the mathematical relations, which are used for modeling the macroeconomic correlations, hence the strictness of the analysis being performed.

  11. Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nargesalsadat Dorratoltaj

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0-19, 20-64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%, strong (21.96%, and moderate (11.73% influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20-64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous

  12. Influenza in the immediate post-pandemic era : A comparison with seasonal and pandemic influenza in hospitalized patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahamat-Langendoen, J. C.; Tutuhatunewa, E. D.; Scholvinck, E. H.; Hak, E.; Koopmans, M.; Niesters, H. G. M.; Riezebos-Brilman, A.

    Background: Comparative data on severity and treatment of seasonal, pandemic and post-pandemic influenza virus infections are scarce. Objectives: To systematically analyze characteristics of hospitalized patients with influenza in the post-pandemic period compared to seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  13. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schanzer, Dena L; Zheng, Hui; Gilmore, Jason

    2011-04-12

    As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  14. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Hui

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS. Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

  15. Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza. PMID:21486453

  16. Reach Address Database (RAD)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Reach Address Database (RAD) stores the reach address of each Water Program feature that has been linked to the underlying surface water features (streams,...

  17. Preparing for an influenza pandemic: ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotalik, Jaro

    2005-08-01

    In the near future, experts predict, an influenza pandemic will likely spread throughout the world. Many countries have been creating a contingency plan in order to mitigate the severe health and social consequences of such an event. Examination of the pandemic plans of Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, from an ethical perspective, raises several concerns. One: scarcity of human and material resources is assumed to be severe. Plans focus on prioritization but do not identify resources that would be optimally required to reduce deaths and other serious consequences. Hence, these plans do not facilitate a truly informed choice at the political level where decisions have to be made on how much to invest now in order to reduce scarcity when a pandemic occurs. Two: mass vaccination is considered to be the most important instrument for reducing the impact of infection, yet pandemic plans do not provide concrete estimates of the benefits and burdens of vaccination to assure everyone that the balance is highly favorable. Three: pandemic plans make extraordinary demands on health care workers, yet professional organizations and unions may not have been involved in the plans' formulation and they have not been assured that authorities will aim to protect and support health care workers in a way that corresponds to the demands made on them. Four: all sectors of society and all individuals will be affected by a pandemic and everyone's collaboration will be required. Yet, it appears that the various populations have been inadequately informed by occasional media reports. Hence, it is essential that plans are developed and communication programs implemented that will not only inform but also create an atmosphere of mutual trust and solidarity; qualities that at the time of a pandemic will be much needed.

  18. Reaching the hard-to-reach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdes, C

    1992-01-01

    Guatemala's family planning (FP) programs are innovative but contraceptive use is only 23%. Total fertility is 5.3 children/woman, and the 9.5 million population will double in 23 years. The problem is poverty and illiteracy among rural residents removed from health services. 80% live in poverty and 80% are illiterate. Government effort is devoted to combating diseases such as diarrhea so there are few funds for implementing a comprehensive population policy. There is support within the national government but FP lacks priority status. APROFAM's goals are to use innovative marketing methods to inform the rural population who lack access to and knowledge about FP. Service delivery is constrained by the difficulty in reaching remote areas where 4 out of 10 indigenous Guatemalans live. Infant mortality can reach as high as 200/1000 live births. Population growth has slowed, and APROFAM plans to reach 16,000 more in the future. Promotions are conducted in several languages and aired on radio, television, and in the print media. It has been found that market research is the most effective strategy in reaching indigenous families. APROFAM has also been effective in upgrading service facilities through training, client surveys, and setting improved clinic standards. Breastfeeding, training, and voluntary sterilization programs contribute to the primary care effort. The example is given of Paulina Lebron from a very poor area who has learned how to space her children and thus improve the standard of living for her family. Eventually, she convinced herself and her family that sterilization was necessary, and now the couple enjoy the bliss of newlyweds without fear of pregnancy.

  19. Global Mortality Impact of the 1957-1959 Influenza Pandemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Quantitative estimates of the global burden of the 1957 influenza pandemic are lacking. Here we fill this gap by modeling historical mortality statistics. METHODS: We used annual rates of age- and cause-specific deaths to estimate pandemic-related mortality in excess of background...... levels in 39 countries in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Americas. We modeled the relationship between excess mortality and development indicators to extrapolate the global burden of the pandemic. RESULTS: The pandemic-associated excess respiratory mortality rate was 1.9/10,000 population (95...... excess deaths (95% CI, .7 million-1.5 million excess deaths) globally to the 1957-1959 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The global mortality rate of the 1957-1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that of the 2009 pandemic. The impact...

  20. How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Past Issues How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu? Past Issues / Fall 2006 Table of Contents ... this page please turn Javascript on. Seasonal Flu Pandemic Flu Outbreaks follow predictable seasonal patterns; occurs annually, ...

  1. Canadian survey on pandemic flu preparations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy CS

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The management of pandemic influenza creates public health challenges. An ethical framework, 'Stand on Guard for Thee: ethical considerations in pandemic influenza preparedness' that served as a template for the World Health Organization's global consultation on pandemic planning, was transformed into a survey administered to a random sample of 500 Canadians to obtain opinions on key ethical issues in pandemic preparedness planning. Methods All framework authors and additional investigators created items that were pilot-tested with volunteers of both sexes and all socioeconomic strata. Surveys were telephone administered with random sampling achieved via random digit dialing (RDD. Eligible participants were adults, 18 years or older, with per province stratification equaling provincial percent of national population. Descriptive results were tabulated and logistic regression analyses were used to assess whether demographic factors were significantly associated with outcomes. Results 5464 calls identified 559 eligible participants of whom 88.5% completed surveys. Over 90% of subjects agreed the most important goal of pandemic influenza preparations was saving lives, with 41% endorsing saving lives solely in Canada and 50% endorsing saving lives globally as the highest priority. Older age (OR = 8.51, p Conclusions Results suggest trust in public health officials to make difficult decisions, providing emphasis on reciprocity and respect for individual rights.

  2. Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaw, J M; Glass, K; Mercer, G N; McVernon, J

    2014-03-01

    The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.

  3. 77 FR 13329 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-06

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... Secretary issued a declaration for pandemic influenza vaccines, which has been amended a number of times. The original pandemic influenza vaccine declaration was published on January 26, 2007,\\1\\ and was...

  4. 75 FR 10268 - Pandemic Influenza Vaccines-Amendment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Office of the Secretary Pandemic Influenza Vaccines... potential to cause, sporadic human infections or have mutated to cause pandemics in humans; Whereas, these viruses may evolve into virus strains capable of causing a pandemic of human influenza because these...

  5. Modelling pandemics of quarantine pests and diseases: problems and perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heesterbeek, J.A.P.; Zadoks, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    To develop a general framework for a mathematical theory of pandemics, known facts about pandemics of plant diseases are reconsidered. A pandemic is thought to consist of three parts called zero-order, first-order and second-order epidemics. The zero-order epidemic is the spread of a disease within

  6. Workplace health and safety during pandemic influenza : CAGC guideline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    Pandemic influenza is a possible biological hazard that employers must take into account during hazard assessment and emergency planning. This report presented a guideline to all workplaces in Alberta and provided information on legislated requirements, best practices, guidelines and strategies in workplace health and safety and employment standards in the event of a pandemic influenza. The report explained the difference between a pandemic and a pandemic influenza, and why scientists expect another pandemic influenza. Pandemic influenza was described as being different from seasonal influenza. This document also explained how pandemic influenza relates to the worker and the workplace, and how the workplace can prepare for and respond to pandemic influenza. Pandemic influenza hazard categories were also listed along with steps in the hazard assessment and control of pandemic influenza. The steps involve listing the types of work and work-related activities; identifying the hazard; assessing the hazards; implementing controls; communicating the information to workers and providing training; and evaluating the effectiveness of controls. The guide also addressed emergency response plan development for pandemic influenza; first aid; and employment standards during pandemic influenza. refs., tabs.

  7. The Global Physical Inactivity Pandemic: An Analysis of Knowledge Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piggin, Joe; Bairner, Alan

    2016-01-01

    In July 2012, "The Lancet" announced a pandemic of physical inactivity and a global call to action to effect change. The worldwide pandemic is said to be claiming millions of lives every year. Asserting that physical inactivity is pandemic is an important moment. Given the purported scale and significance of physical inactivity around…

  8. Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu'): diagnostic and other challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkardt, Hans-Joachim

    2011-01-01

    Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu') virus was 'the virus of the year 2009' because it affected the lives of many people in this year. H1N1 was first described in California in April 2009 and spread very rapidly all over the globe. The fast global penetration of the swine flu caused the WHO in Geneva to call the infection with H1N1 a new pandemic with a rapid escalation of the different pandemic phases that ended on 11 June 2009, with the declaration of phase 6 (full-blown pandemic). This had far-reaching consequences for the local health authorities in the different affected countries and created awareness in the public and fear in the experts and even more so in many lay people. The consequences were: setting up reliable diagnostic tests as soon as possible; enhanced production, distribution and stock creation of the few drugs that were available to treat newly infected persons; and development, production, distribution and stock creation of new and appropriate anti-H1N1 swine flu vaccines. This all resulted in enormous costs in the local healthcare systems and also required smart and diligent logistics, because demand for all this was, in most cases, much higher than availability. Fortunately, the pandemic ended quite quickly (there was no 'second wave' as had been anticipated by some experts) and the death toll was moderate, compared with other influenza pandemic in the past and even to the regular annual appearance of the seasonal flu. This favorable outcome, however, provoked some harsh criticism that the WHO and healthcare systems in general had over-reacted and by doing so, a lot of money was thrown out of the window. This article describes the history of the H1N1 pandemic, the diagnostic challenges and resolutions, touches on treatment and vaccination very briefly and also comments on the criticism and arguments that came up immediately at the end and following the termination of the pandemic situation.

  9. Management of natural and bioterrorism induced pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyshenko, Michael G

    2007-09-01

    A recent approach for bioterrorism risk management calls for stricter regulations over biotechnology as a way to control subversion of technology that may be used to create a man-made pandemic. This approach is largely unworkable given the increasing pervasiveness of molecular techniques and tools throughout society. Emerging technology has provided the tools to design much deadlier pathogens but concomitantly the ability to respond to emerging pandemics to reduce mortality has also improved significantly in recent decades. In its historical context determining just how 'risky' biological weapons is an important consideration for decision making and resource allocation. Management should attempt to increase capacity, share resources, provide accurate infectious disease reporting, deliver information transparency and improve communications to help mitigate the magnitude of future pandemics.

  10. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Denise E.; Cleary, David W.; Clarke, Stuart C.

    2017-01-01

    Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic. PMID:28690590

  11. Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise E. Morris

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012. Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic.

  12. Guaranteed performance in reaching mode of sliding mode ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    addresses the design of constant plus proportional rate reaching law-based SMC for second-order ... Reaching mode; sliding mode controlled systems; output tracking ... The uncertainty in the input distribution function g is expressed as.

  13. Influenza Pandemic Infrastructure Response in Thailand

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-03-05

    Influenza viruses change antigenic properties, or drift, every year and they create seasonal outbreaks. Occasionally, influenza viruses change in a major way, called a “shift." If an influenza virus shifts, the entire human population is susceptible to the new influenza virus, creating the potential for a pandemic. On this podcast, CDC's Dr. Scott Dowell discusses responding to an influenza pandemic.  Created: 3/5/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/5/2009.

  14. Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raman Chawla

    2009-01-01

    The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA, Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies, nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels.

  15. Proportioning of light weight concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palmus, Lars

    1996-01-01

    Development of a method to determine the proportions of the raw materials in light weight concrete made with leight expanded clay aggregate. The method is based on composite theory......Development of a method to determine the proportions of the raw materials in light weight concrete made with leight expanded clay aggregate. The method is based on composite theory...

  16. A home health agency's pandemic preparedness and experience with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebmann, Terri; Citarella, Barbara; Subramaniam, Divya S; Subramaniam, Dipti P

    2011-11-01

    Adequate pandemic preparedness is imperative for home health agencies. A 23-item pandemic preparedness survey was administered to home health agencies in the spring of 2010. The Kruskal-Wallis (KW) test was used to evaluate the relationships between agency size and preparedness indicators. Significant findings were further analyzed by the Mann-Whitney (MW) U post hoc test. The response rate was 25% (526/2,119). Approximately one-third of respondents (30.4%; n = 131) reported experiencing trouble obtaining supplies during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Small agencies were significantly more likely (Krusal-Wallis [KW] = 9.2; P agency pandemic preparedness, including surge capacity and participation in disaster drills, that need to be addressed. Copyright © 2011 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence

  18. Lessons from pandemic influenza A(H1N1): the research-based vaccine industry's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelin, Atika; Colegate, Tony; Gardner, Stephen; Hehme, Norbert; Palache, Abraham

    2011-02-01

    As A(H1N1) influenza enters the post-pandemic phase, health authorities around the world are reviewing the response to the pandemic. To ensure this process enhances future preparations, it is essential that perspectives are included from all relevant stakeholders, including vaccine manufacturers. This paper outlines the contribution of R&D-based influenza vaccine producers to the pandemic response, and explores lessons that can be learned to improve future preparedness. The emergence of 2009 A(H1N1) influenza led to unprecedented collaboration between global health authorities, scientists and manufacturers, resulting in the most comprehensive pandemic response ever undertaken, with a number of vaccines approved for use three months after the pandemic declaration. This response was only possible because of the extensive preparations undertaken during the last decade. During this period, manufacturers greatly increased influenza vaccine production capacity, and estimates suggest a further doubling of capacity by 2014. Producers also introduced cell-culture technology, while adjuvant and whole virion technologies significantly reduced pandemic vaccine antigen content. This substantially increased pandemic vaccine production capacity, which in July 2009 WHO estimated reached 4.9 billion doses per annum. Manufacturers also worked with health authorities to establish risk management plans for robust vaccine surveillance during the pandemic. Individual producers pledged significant donations of vaccine doses and tiered-pricing approaches for developing country supply. Based on the pandemic experience, a number of improvements would strengthen future preparedness. Technical improvements to rapidly select optimal vaccine viruses, and processes to speed up vaccine standardization, could accelerate and extend vaccine availability. Establishing vaccine supply agreements beforehand would avoid the need for complex discussions during a period of intense time pressure. Enhancing

  19. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1)

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... in Port Shepstone, South Africa. Introduction. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 'swine flu' variant is currently a global pandemic.1 The infection associated with this virus is usually a mild, self-limiting illness. However, it may progress to severe pneumonia requiring intensive care unit (ICU) therapy in 31% of patients.2 This may.

  20. Pandemic swine influenza virus: Preparedness planning | Ojogba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The novel H1N1 influenza virus that emerged in humans in Mexico in early 2009 and transmitted efficiently in the human population with global spread was declared a pandemic strain. The introduction of different avian and human influenza virus genes into swine influenza viruses often result in viruses of increased fitness ...

  1. The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shweta Bansal

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As Pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.

  2. Pandemic Planning: Are Universities Really Prepared?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokrywka, Francis J.

    2016-01-01

    Planning for a pandemic influenza outbreak at a college or university cannot be done in a vacuum. Like any emergency plan, it needs to be a coordinated effort by a dedicated and unselfish group of individuals at the university pulling together a multitude of people and resources focused on a common goal. There is an ongoing struggle among…

  3. Pandemic Influenza: Perception of Medical Students Medical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... vaccination against H1N1and 31.9% refused joining voluntary work during H1N1 pandemic. Gender, age, marital status and family number were predictors r voluntary work. Conclusion: Defective knowledge and the role of the family are the main factors predispose to further attitude of medical students regarding voluntary ...

  4. Ending the HIV/AIDS Pandemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2018-04-26

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at NIH, discusses progress made toward ending HIV/AIDS and other pandemic infectious diseases.  Created: 4/26/2018 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/26/2018.

  5. Proportional Symbol Mapping in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susumu Tanimura

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Visualization of spatial data on a map aids not only in data exploration but also in communication to impart spatial conception or ideas to others. Although recent carto-graphic functions in R are rapidly becoming richer, proportional symbol mapping, which is one of the common mapping approaches, has not been packaged thus far. Based on the theories of proportional symbol mapping developed in cartography, the authors developed some functions for proportional symbol mapping using R, including mathematical and perceptual scaling. An example of these functions demonstrated the new expressive power and options available in R, particularly for the visualization of conceptual point data.

  6. Optical fusions and proportional syntheses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert-Vanel, Michel

    2002-06-01

    A tragic error is being made in the literature concerning matters of color when dealing with optical fusions. They are still considered to be of additive nature, whereas experience shows us somewhat different results. The goal of this presentation is to show that fusions are, in fact, of 'proportional' nature, tending to be additive or subtractive, depending on each individual case. Using the pointillist paintings done in the manner of Seurat, or the spinning discs experiment could highlight this intermediate sector of the proportional. So, let us try to examine more closely what occurs in fact, by reviewing additive, subtractive and proportional syntheses.

  7. Influenza Pandemics: Past, Present and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Chia Hsieh

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Influenza A virus is well known for its capability for genetic changes either through antigen drift or antigen shift. Antigen shift is derived from reassortment of gene segments between viruses, and may result in an antigenically novel virus that is capable of causing a worldwide pandemic. As we trace backwards through the history of influenza pandemics, a repeating pattern can be observed, namely, a limited wave in the first year followed by global spread in the following year. In the 20th century alone, there were three overwhelming pandemics, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, caused by H1N1 (Spanish flu, H2N2 (Asian flu and H3N2 (Hong Kong flu, respectively. In 1957 and 1968, excess mortality was noted in infants, the elderly and persons with chronic diseases, similar to what occurred during interpandemic periods. In 1918, there was one distinct peak of excess death in young adults aged between 20 and 40 years old; leukopenia and hemorrhage were prominent features. Acute pulmonary edema and hemorrhagic pneumonia contributed to rapidly lethal outcome in young adults. Autopsies disclosed multiple-organ involvement, including pericarditis, myocarditis, hepatitis and splenomegaly. These findings are, in part, consistent with clinical manifestations of human infection with avian influenza A H5N1 virus, in which reactive hemophagocytic syndrome was a characteristic pathologic finding that accounted for pancytopenia, abnormal liver function and multiple organ failure. All the elements of an impending pandemic are in place. Unless effective measures are implemented, we will likely observe a pandemic in the coming seasons. Host immune response plays a crucial role in disease caused by newly emerged influenza virus, such as the 1918 pandemic strain and the recent avian H5N1 strain. Sustained activation of lymphocytes and macrophages after infection results in massive cytokine response, thus leading to severe systemic inflammation. Further investigations into how

  8. Teratology testing under REACH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, Steve

    2013-01-01

    REACH guidelines may require teratology testing for new and existing chemicals. This chapter discusses procedures to assess the need for teratology testing and the conduct and interpretation of teratology tests where required.

  9. Global reach and engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Popular culture reflects both the interests of and the issues affecting the general public. As concerns regarding climate change and its impacts grow, is it permeating into popular culture and reaching that global audience?

  10. Proportional counter end effects eliminator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meekins, J.F.

    1976-01-01

    An improved gas-filled proportional counter which includes a resistor network connected between the anode and cathode at the ends of the counter in order to eliminate ''end effects'' is described. 3 Claims, 2 Drawing Figures

  11. Electronics for proportional drift tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fremont, G.; Friend, B.; Mess, K.H.; Schmidt-Parzefall, W.; Tarle, J.C.; Verweij, H.; CERN-Hamburg-Amsterdam-Rome-Moscow Collaboration); Geske, K.; Riege, H.; Schuett, J.; CERN-Hamburg-Amsterdam-Rome-Moscow Collaboration); Semenov, Y.; CERN-Hamburg-Amsterdam-Rome-Moscow Collaboration)

    1980-01-01

    An electronic system for the read-out of a large number of proportional drift tubes (16,000) has been designed. This system measures deposited charge and drift-time of the charge of a particle traversing a proportional drift tube. A second event can be accepted during the read-out of the system. Up to 40 typical events can be collected and buffered before a data transfer to a computer is necessary. (orig.)

  12. Analogical proportions: another logical view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prade, Henri; Richard, Gilles

    This paper investigates the logical formalization of a restricted form of analogical reasoning based on analogical proportions, i.e. statements of the form a is to b as c is to d. Starting from a naive set theoretic interpretation, we highlight the existence of two noticeable companion proportions: one states that a is to b the converse of what c is to d (reverse analogy), while the other called paralogical proportion expresses that what a and b have in common, c and d have it also. We identify the characteristic postulates of the three types of proportions and examine their consequences from an abstract viewpoint. We further study the properties of the set theoretic interpretation and of the Boolean logic interpretation, and we provide another light on the understanding of the role of permutations in the modeling of the three types of proportions. Finally, we address the use of these proportions as a basis for inference in a propositional setting, and relate it to more general schemes of analogical reasoning. The differences between analogy, reverse-analogy, and paralogy is still emphasized in a three-valued setting, which is also briefly presented.

  13. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. Methods An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. Results For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. Conclusions For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal

  14. Development of multiwire proportional chambers

    CERN Multimedia

    Charpak, G

    1969-01-01

    It has happened quite often in the history of science that theoreticians, confronted with some major difficulty, have successfully gone back thirty years to look at ideas that had then been thrown overboard. But it is rare that experimentalists go back thirty years to look again at equipment which had become out-dated. This is what Charpak and his colleagues did to emerge with the 'multiwire proportional chamber' which has several new features making it a very useful addition to the armoury of particle detectors. In the 1930s, ion-chambers, Geiger- Muller counters and proportional counters, were vital pieces of equipment in nuclear physics research. Other types of detectors have since largely replaced them but now the proportional counter, in new array, is making a comeback.

  15. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  16. Pandemic: how to avoid panic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pietro Greco

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The tsunami that took place on 26th December 2004 in the Indian Ocean and hurricane Katrina, that last August struck the Mexican Gulf, are two recent natural events that turned into catastrophes for mankind, causing several thousands victims. One of the reasons behind this can be traced back to the fact that useful information in the hands of scientists and experts did not reach the right people within the right time. A crushing defeat for risk communication was witnessed in these two recent events. All the more paradoxical since we live in what we like to name “the era of communication and information”.

  17. Viral Etiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations during the A/H1N1pdm09 Pandemic and Postpandemic Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Sanz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Viral infections are one of the main causes of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AE-COPD. Emergence of A/H1N1pdm influenza virus in the 2009 pandemic changed the viral etiology of exacerbations that were reported before the pandemic. The aim of this study was to describe the etiology of respiratory viruses in 195 Spanish patients affected by AE-COPD from the pandemic until the 2011-12 influenza epidemic. During the study period (2009–2012, respiratory viruses were identified in 48.7% of samples, and the proportion of viral detections in AE-COPD was higher in patients aged 30–64 years than ≥65 years. Influenza A viruses were the pathogens most often detected during the pandemic and the following two influenza epidemics in contradistinction to human rhino/enteroviruses that were the main viruses causing AE-COPD before the pandemic. The probability of influenza virus detection was 2.78-fold higher in patients who are 30–64 years old than those ≥65. Most respiratory samples were obtained during the pandemic, but the influenza detection rate was higher during the 2011-12 epidemic. There is a need for more accurate AE-COPD diagnosis, emphasizing the role of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, diagnosis requires increased attention to patient age and the characteristics of each influenza epidemic.

  18. Saving Money Using Proportional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Cruz, Jessica A.; Garney, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    It is beneficial for students to discover intuitive strategies, as opposed to the teacher presenting strategies to them. Certain proportional reasoning tasks are more likely to elicit intuitive strategies than other tasks. The strategies that students are apt to use when approaching a task, as well as the likelihood of a student's success or…

  19. Panglobalism and pandemics: ecological and ethical concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolston, Holmes

    2005-10-01

    A pandemic is a human medical problem but must be understood at multiple levels. Analysis of social and commercial forces is vital, and, more comprehensively, an ecological framework is necessary for an inclusive picture. Ecological health webworked with political and social determinants surrounds issues of human health. In this constellation of both natural and social factors, ethical concerns will arise at these multiple levels, from human health to the conservation and health of wild nature.

  20. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions.

    OpenAIRE

    Joshua M Epstein; D Michael Goedecke; Feng Yu; Robert J Morris; Diane K Wagener; Georgiy V Bobashev

    2007-01-01

    Background Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration. Methods and Findings A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects ...

  1. Adjuvant solution for pandemic influenza vaccine production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clegg, Christopher H; Roque, Richard; Van Hoeven, Neal; Perrone, Lucy; Baldwin, Susan L; Rininger, Joseph A; Bowen, Richard A; Reed, Steven G

    2012-10-23

    Extensive preparation is underway to mitigate the next pandemic influenza outbreak. New vaccine technologies intended to supplant egg-based production methods are being developed, with recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) as the most advanced program for preventing seasonal and avian H5N1 Influenza. Increased efforts are being focused on adjuvants that can broaden vaccine immunogenicity against emerging viruses and maximize vaccine supply on a worldwide scale. Here, we test protection against avian flu by using H5N1-derived rHA and GLA-SE, a two-part adjuvant system containing glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant (GLA), a formulated synthetic Toll-like receptor 4 agonist, and a stable emulsion (SE) of oil in water, which is similar to the best-in-class adjuvants being developed for pandemic flu. Notably, a single submicrogram dose of rH5 adjuvanted with GLA-SE protects mice and ferrets against a high titer challenge with H5N1 virus. GLA-SE, relative to emulsion alone, accelerated induction of the primary immune response and broadened its durability against heterosubtypic H5N1 virus challenge. Mechanistically, GLA-SE augments protection via induction of a Th1-mediated antibody response. Innate signaling pathways that amplify priming of Th1 CD4 T cells will likely improve vaccine performance against future outbreaks of lethal pandemic flu.

  2. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Jiangwen

    2016-09-01

    The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Updated preparedness and response framework for influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Rachel; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Zaza, Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2014-09-26

    The complexities of planning for and responding to the emergence of novel influenza viruses emphasize the need for systematic frameworks to describe the progression of the event; weigh the risk of emergence and potential public health impact; evaluate transmissibility, antiviral resistance, and severity; and make decisions about interventions. On the basis of experience from recent influenza responses, CDC has updated its framework to describe influenza pandemic progression using six intervals (two prepandemic and four pandemic intervals) and eight domains. This updated framework can be used for influenza pandemic planning and serves as recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action in the United States. The updated framework replaces the U.S. federal government stages from the 2006 implementation plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (US Homeland Security Council. National strategy for pandemic influenza: implementation plan. Washington, DC: US Homeland Security Council; 2006. Available at http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf). The six intervals of the updated framework are as follows: 1) investigation of cases of novel influenza, 2) recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission, 3) initiation of a pandemic wave, 4) acceleration of a pandemic wave, 5) deceleration of a pandemic wave, and 6) preparation for future pandemic waves. The following eight domains are used to organize response efforts within each interval: incident management, surveillance and epidemiology, laboratory, community mitigation, medical care and countermeasures, vaccine, risk communications, and state/local coordination. Compared with the previous U.S. government stages, this updated framework provides greater detail and clarity regarding the potential timing of key decisions and actions aimed at slowing the spread and mitigating the impact of an emerging pandemic. Use of this updated framework is

  4. Searching PubMed during a pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ole Norgaard

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The 2009 influenza A(H1N1 pandemic has generated thousands of articles and news items. However, finding relevant scientific articles in such rapidly developing health crises is a major challenge which, in turn, can affect decision-makers' ability to utilise up-to-date findings and ultimately shape public health interventions. This study set out to show the impact that the inconsistent naming of the pandemic can have on retrieving relevant scientific articles in PubMed/MEDLINE. METHODOLOGY: We first formulated a PubMed search algorithm covering different names of the influenza pandemic and simulated the results that it would have retrieved from weekly searches for relevant new records during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic. To assess the impact of failing to include every term in this search, we then conducted the same searches but omitted in turn "h1n1," "swine," "influenza" and "flu" from the search string, and compared the results to those for the full string. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: On average, our core search string identified 44.3 potentially relevant new records at the end of each week. Of these, we determined that an average of 27.8 records were relevant. When we excluded one term from the string, the percentage of records missed out of the total number of relevant records averaged 18.7% for omitting "h1n1," 13.6% for "swine," 17.5% for "influenza," and 20.6% for "flu." CONCLUSIONS: Due to inconsistent naming, while searching for scientific material about rapidly evolving situations such as the influenza A(H1N1 pandemic, there is a risk that one will miss relevant articles. To address this problem, the international scientific community should agree on nomenclature and the specific name to be used earlier, and the National Library of Medicine in the US could index potentially relevant materials faster and allow publishers to add alert tags to such materials.

  5. Disease proportions attributable to environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vineis Paolo

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Population disease proportions attributable to various causal agents are popular as they present a simplified view of the contribution of each agent to the disease load. However they are only summary figures that may be easily misinterpreted or over-interpreted even when the causal link between an exposure and an effect is well established. This commentary discusses several issues surrounding the estimation of attributable proportions, particularly with reference to environmental causes of cancers, and critically examines two recently published papers. These issues encompass potential biases as well as the very definition of environment and of environmental agent. The latter aspect is not just a semantic question but carries implications for the focus of preventive actions, whether centred on the material and social environment or on single individuals.

  6. PEP quark search proportional chambers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parker, S I; Harris, F; Karliner, I; Yount, D [Hawaii Univ., Honolulu (USA); Ely, R; Hamilton, R; Pun, T [California Univ., Berkeley (USA). Lawrence Berkeley Lab.; Guryn, W; Miller, D; Fries, R [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (USA)

    1981-04-01

    Proportional chambers are used in the PEP Free Quark Search to identify and remove possible background sources such as particles traversing the edges of counters, to permit geometric corrections to the dE/dx and TOF information from the scintillator and Cerenkov counters, and to look for possible high cross section quarks. The present beam pipe has a thickness of 0.007 interaction lengths (lambdasub(i)) and is followed in both arms each with 45/sup 0/ <= theta <= 135/sup 0/, ..delta..phi=90/sup 0/ by 5 proportional chambers, each 0.0008 lambdasub(i) thick with 32 channels of pulse height readout, and by 3 thin scintillator planes, each 0.003 lambdasub(i) thick. Following this thin front end, each arm of the detector has 8 layers of scintillator (one with scintillating light pipes) interspersed with 4 proportional chambers and a layer of lucite Cerenkov counters. Both the calculated ion statistics and measurements using He-CH/sub 4/ gas in a test chamber indicate that the chamber efficiencies should be >98% for q=1/3. The Landau spread measured in the test was equal to that observed for normal q=1 traversals. One scintillator plane and thin chamber in each arm will have an extra set of ADC's with a wide gate bracketing the normal one so timing errors and tails of earlier pulses should not produce fake quarks.

  7. Reaching the unreached.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariyaratne, A T

    1989-01-01

    Embodied in the child survival revolution are ideological, methodological, and organizational innovations aimed at radical change in the condition of the world's children as rapidly as possible. In countries such as Sri Lanka, child survival and health for all by the year 2000 often seem to be impossible goals, given the tumultuous socioeconomic and political conditions. In Sri Lanka, the quality of life has been eroded, not enhanced, by the importation of Western technology and managerial capitalism and the destruction of indigenous processes. The chaos and violence that have been brought into the country have made it difficult to reach the poor children, women, and refugees in rural areas with primary health care interventions. Sri Lanka's unreachable--the decision making elites--have blocked access to the unreached--the urban and rural poor. If governments are to reach the unreached, they must remove the obstacles to a people-centered, community development process. It is the people themselves, and the institutions of their creation, that can reach the children amidst them in greatest need. To achieve this task, local communities must be provided with basic human rights, the power to make decisions that affect their lives, necessary resources, and appropriate technologies. Nongovernmental organizations can play a crucial role as bridges between the unreached and the unreachable by promoting community empowerment, aiding in the formation of networks of community organizations, and establishing linkages with government programs. If the ruling elites in developing countries can be persuaded to accommodate the needs and aspirations of those who, to date, have been excluded from the development process, the child survival revolution can be a nonviolent one.

  8. Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adams Elisabeth J

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap Methods School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. Results The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at £0.2 bn – £1.2 bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. Conclusion The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

  9. Solar Hydrogen Reaching Maturity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rongé Jan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasingly vast research efforts are devoted to the development of materials and processes for solar hydrogen production by light-driven dissociation of water into oxygen and hydrogen. Storage of solar energy in chemical bonds resolves the issues associated with the intermittent nature of sunlight, by decoupling energy generation and consumption. This paper investigates recent advances and prospects in solar hydrogen processes that are reaching market readiness. Future energy scenarios involving solar hydrogen are proposed and a case is made for systems producing hydrogen from water vapor present in air, supported by advanced modeling.

  10. A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Chris W; Jennings, Roy

    2011-10-01

    To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Genetic diversity of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 viruses in Finland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niina Ikonen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In Finland, the first infections caused by the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 virus were identified on May 10. During the next three months almost all infections were found from patients who had recently traveled abroad. In September 2009 the pandemic virus started to spread in the general population, leading to localized outbreaks and peak epidemic activity was reached during weeks 43-48. METHODS/RESULTS: The nucleotide sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA and neuraminidase (NA genes from viruses collected from 138 patients were determined. The analyzed viruses represented mild and severe infections and different geographic regions and time periods. Based on HA and NA gene sequences, the Finnish pandemic viruses clustered in four groups. Finnish epidemic viruses and A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus strain varied from 2-8 and 0-5 amino acids in HA and NA molecules, respectively, giving a respective maximal evolution speed of 1.4% and 1.1%. Most amino acid changes in HA and NA molecules accumulated on the surface of the molecule and were partly located in antigenic sites. Three severe infections were detected with a mutation at HA residue 222, in two viruses with a change D222G, and in one virus D222Y. Also viruses with change D222E were identified. All Finnish pandemic viruses were sensitive to oseltamivir having the amino acid histidine at residue 275 of the neuraminidase molecule. CONCLUSIONS: The Finnish pandemic viruses were quite closely related to A/California/07/2009 vaccine virus. Neither in the HA nor in the NA were changes identified that may lead to the selection of a virus with increased epidemic potential or exceptionally high virulence. Continued laboratory-based surveillance of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1 is important in order to rapidly identify drug resistant viruses and/or virus variants with potential ability to cause severe forms of infection and an ability to circumvent vaccine-induced immunity.

  12. The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Basta, Nicole E; Chao, Dennis L; Matrajt, Laura; Potter, Gail; Kenah, Eben; Longini, Ira M

    2009-10-30

    Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

  13. Toward a collaborative model of pandemic preparedness and response: Taiwan's changing approach to pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Schwartz

    2017-04-01

    Conclusion: The Taiwan case provides evidence that by implementing the whole-of-society approach to pandemic preparedness and response governments can enhance their ability to manage future outbreaks. We recommend that governments beyond Taiwan's borders seriously consider adopting this approach.

  14. BROOKHAVEN: Proton goal reached

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    On March 30 the 35-year old Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) exceeded its updated design goal of 6 x 10 13 protons per pulse (ppp), by accelerating 6.3 x 10 13 ppp, a world record intensity. This goal was set 11 years ago and achieving it called for the construction of a new booster and the reconstruction of much of the AGS. The booster was completed in 1991, and reached its design intensity of 1.5 x 10 13 ppp in 1993. The AGS reconstruction was finished in 1994, and by July of that year the AGS claimed a new US record intensity for a proton synchrotron of 4 x 10 13 ppp, using four booster pulses. Reaching the design intensity was scheduled for 1995. In 1994, the AGS had seemed to be solidly limited to 4 x 10 13 ppp, but in 1995 the operations crew, working on their own in the quiet of the owl shift, steadily improved the intensity, regularly setting new records, much to the bemusement of the machine physicists. The physicists, however, did contribute. A second harmonic radiofrequency cavity in the booster increased the radiofrequency bucket area for capture, raising the booster intensity from 1.7 to 2.1 x 10 13 ppp. In the AGS, new radiofrequency power supplies raised the available voltage from 8 to 13 kV, greatly enhancing the beam loading capabilities of the system. A powerful new transverse damping system successfully controlled instabilities that otherwise would have destroyed the beam in less than a millisecond. Also in the AGS, 35th harmonic octupole resonances were found

  15. BROOKHAVEN: Proton goal reached

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1995-09-15

    On March 30 the 35-year old Alternating Gradient Synchrotron (AGS) exceeded its updated design goal of 6 x 10{sup 13} protons per pulse (ppp), by accelerating 6.3 x 10{sup 13} ppp, a world record intensity. This goal was set 11 years ago and achieving it called for the construction of a new booster and the reconstruction of much of the AGS. The booster was completed in 1991, and reached its design intensity of 1.5 x 10{sup 13} ppp in 1993. The AGS reconstruction was finished in 1994, and by July of that year the AGS claimed a new US record intensity for a proton synchrotron of 4 x 10{sup 13} ppp, using four booster pulses. Reaching the design intensity was scheduled for 1995. In 1994, the AGS had seemed to be solidly limited to 4 x 10{sup 13} ppp, but in 1995 the operations crew, working on their own in the quiet of the owl shift, steadily improved the intensity, regularly setting new records, much to the bemusement of the machine physicists. The physicists, however, did contribute. A second harmonic radiofrequency cavity in the booster increased the radiofrequency bucket area for capture, raising the booster intensity from 1.7 to 2.1 x 10{sup 13} ppp. In the AGS, new radiofrequency power supplies raised the available voltage from 8 to 13 kV, greatly enhancing the beam loading capabilities of the system. A powerful new transverse damping system successfully controlled instabilities that otherwise would have destroyed the beam in less than a millisecond. Also in the AGS, 35th harmonic octupole resonances were found.

  16. Incisors’ proportions in smile esthetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsulaimani, Fahad F; Batwa, Waeil

    2013-01-01

    Aims: To determine whether alteration of the maxillary central and lateral incisors’ length and width, respectively, would affect perceived smile esthetics and to validate the most esthetic length and width, respectively, for the central and lateral incisors. Materials and Methods: Photographic manipulation was undertaken to produce two sets of photographs, each set of four photographs showing the altered width of the lateral incisor and length of the central length. The eight produced photographs were assessed by laypeople, dentists and orthodontists. Results: Alteration in the incisors’ proportion affected the relative smile attractiveness for laypeople (n=124), dentists (n=115) and orthodontists (n=68); dentists and orthodontists did not accept lateral width reduction of more than 0.5 mm (P<0.01), which suggests that the lateral to central incisor width ratio ranges from 54% to 62%. However, laypeople did not accept lateral width reduction of more than 1 mm (P<0.01), widening the range to be from 48% to 62%. All groups had zero tolerance for changes in central crown length (P<0.01). Conclusion: All participants recognized that the central incisors’ length changes. For lateral incisors, laypeople were more tolerant than dentists and orthodontists. This suggests that changing incisors’ proportions affects the relative smile attractiveness. PMID:24987650

  17. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: A novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in ...

  18. Including the public in pandemic planning: a deliberative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Braunack-Mayer Annette J

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Against a background of pandemic threat posed by SARS and avian H5N1 influenza, this study used deliberative forums to elucidate informed community perspectives on aspects of pandemic planning. Methods Two deliberative forums were carried out with members of the South Australian community. The forums were supported by a qualitative study with adults and youths, systematic reviews of the literature and the involvement of an extended group of academic experts and policy makers. The forum discussions were recorded with simultaneous transcription and analysed thematically. Results Participants allocated scarce resources of antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccine based on a desire to preserve society function in a time of crisis. Participants were divided on the acceptability of social distancing and quarantine measures. However, should such measures be adopted, they thought that reasonable financial, household and psychological support was essential. In addition, provided such support was present, the participants, in general, were willing to impose strict sanctions on those who violated quarantine and social distancing measures. Conclusions The recommendations from the forums suggest that the implementation of pandemic plans in a severe pandemic will be challenging, but not impossible. Implementation may be more successful if the public is engaged in pandemic planning before a pandemic, effective communication of key points is practiced before and during a pandemic and if judicious use is made of supportive measures to assist those in quarantine or affected by social isolation measures.

  19. Strategies for Fighting Pandemic Flu in Developing Countries

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Countries throughout the world are preparing for the next influenza pandemic. Developing countries face special challenges because they don't have antiviral drugs or vaccines that more developed countries have. In this podcast, CDC's Dr. Dan Jernigan discusses new and innovative approaches that may help developing countries fight pandemic flu when it emerges.

  20. Epidemiological characteristics of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... novel influenza A virus strain (H1N1-2009) spread first in Mexico and the United Stated in late April 2009, leading to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The objective of this study was to determine the epidemiological and virological characteristics of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in Zhanjiang, China ...

  1. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  2. The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

    2011-01-01

    Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess

  3. H1N1 pandemic preparedness and business continuity plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-10-15

    SaskPower's H1N1 pandemic preparedness and business continuity plan was designed to prepare SaskPower employees for elevated levels of absenteeism during a potential pandemic. Emergency management and business continuity will be facilitated if critical duties and essential services are maintained without interruption. A layered approach was used to develop a range of response measures designed to meet a range of possible pandemic threats. The plan identified essential activities, tasks and functions and outlined methods of mitigating supply disruptions and possible shortages. Methods of minimizing illness in employees were discussed, as well as methods of maintaining a safe and secure work environment. The measures were developed in accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) 6 phases of pandemic alert. The plan was also designed to be read by SaskPower's key suppliers in order to ensure their pandemic readiness. 5 tabs.

  4. Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Simonsen, Lone; Fuentes, Rodrigo

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings. METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city...... with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record...... for this pandemic - about 3-5 times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high-income countries....

  5. Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cont, Rama; Jessen, Cathrine

    2012-01-01

    be made arbitrarily small—and thus the credit rating arbitrarily high—by increasing leverage, but the ratings obtained strongly depend on assumptions on the credit environment (high spread or low spread). More importantly, CPDO loss distributions are found to exhibit a wide range of tail risk measures......Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) are structured credit derivatives that generate high coupon payments by dynamically leveraging a position in an underlying portfolio of investment-grade index default swaps. CPDO coupons and principal notes received high initial credit ratings from...... the major rating agencies, based on complex models for the joint transition of ratings and spreads for all names in the underlying portfolio. We propose a parsimonious model for analysing the performance of CPDO strategies using a top-down approach that captures the essential risk factors of the CPDO. Our...

  6. Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Maxwell J; Silva, Diego S

    2015-01-01

    The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

  7. Reaching Beyond The Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Mariah; Rosenthal, L.; Gaughan, A.; Hopkins, E.

    2014-01-01

    Strawbridge Observatory at Haverford College is home to a undergraduate-led public observing program. Our program holds ~once monthly public events throughout the academic year that take advantage of eyepiece observing on our 16-inch and 12-inch telescopes as well as of the classroom, library, and projection system. These resources allow us to organize a variety of astronomy related activities that are engaging for individuals of all ages: accessible student talks, current film screenings and even arts and crafts for the families who attend with young children. These events aim to spark curiosity in others about scientific discovery and about the remarkable nature of the world in which we live. In addition to exciting local families about astronomy, this program has excited Haverford students from a range of disciplines about both science and education. Being entirely student led means that we are able to take the initiative in planning, coordinating and running all events, fostering an atmosphere of collaboration, experimentation and commitment amongst our volunteers. Additionally, this program is one of the few at Haverford that regularly reaches beyond the campus walls to promote and build relationships with the outside community. In light of this, our program presents a distinctive and enlightening opportunity for student volunteers: we get to use our scientific backgrounds to educate a general audience, while also learning from them about how to communicate and inspire in others the excitement we feel about the subject of astronomy. The work on this project has been supported by NSF AST-1151462.

  8. GAP-REACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Fernández, Roberto; Raggio, Greer A.; Gorritz, Magdaliz; Duan, Naihua; Marcus, Sue; Cabassa, Leopoldo J.; Humensky, Jennifer; Becker, Anne E.; Alarcón, Renato D.; Oquendo, María A.; Hansen, Helena; Like, Robert C.; Weiss, Mitchell; Desai, Prakash N.; Jacobsen, Frederick M.; Foulks, Edward F.; Primm, Annelle; Lu, Francis; Kopelowicz, Alex; Hinton, Ladson; Hinton, Devon E.

    2015-01-01

    Growing awareness of health and health care disparities highlights the importance of including information about race, ethnicity, and culture (REC) in health research. Reporting of REC factors in research publications, however, is notoriously imprecise and unsystematic. This article describes the development of a checklist to assess the comprehensiveness and the applicability of REC factor reporting in psychiatric research publications. The 16-itemGAP-REACH© checklist was developed through a rigorous process of expert consensus, empirical content analysis in a sample of publications (N = 1205), and interrater reliability (IRR) assessment (N = 30). The items assess each section in the conventional structure of a health research article. Data from the assessment may be considered on an item-by-item basis or as a total score ranging from 0% to 100%. The final checklist has excellent IRR (κ = 0.91). The GAP-REACH may be used by multiple research stakeholders to assess the scope of REC reporting in a research article. PMID:24080673

  9. UX-15 Reaches LEP

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    The creation of the world's largest sandstone cavern, not a small feat! At the bottom, cave-in preventing steel mesh can be seen clinging to the top of the tunnel. The digging of UX-15, the cavern that will house ATLAS, reached the upper ceiling of LEP on October 10th. The breakthrough which took place nearly 100 metres underground occurred precisely on schedule and exactly as planned. But much caution was taken beforehand to make the LEP breakthrough clean and safe. To prevent the possibility of cave-ins in the side tunnels that will eventually be attached to the completed UX-15 cavern, reinforcing steel mesh was fixed into the walls with bolts. Obviously no people were allowed in the LEP tunnels below UX-15 as the breakthrough occurred. The area was completely evacuated and fences were put into place to keep all personnel out. However, while personnel were being kept out of the tunnels below, this has been anything but the case for the work taking place up above. With the creation of the world's largest...

  10. Increasing pandemic vaccination rates with effective communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrich, Natalie J

    2011-06-01

    Communicating effectively with the public about the importance of vaccination during a pandemic poses a challenge to health communicators. The public's concerns about the safety, effectiveness and necessity of vaccines lead many people to refuse vaccination and the current communication strategies are often unsuccessful at overcoming the public's resistance to vaccinate. Convincing the public to receive a vaccination, especially during a pandemic when there can be so much uncertainty about the vaccine and the disease, requires a revised communication approach. This revised approach should integrate into messages information that the public identifies as important, as well as presenting messages in a way that is consistent with our evolved social learning biases. These biases will impact both the content of the message and who delivers the message to different target populations. Additionally, an improved understanding between media and health communicators about the role each plays during a crisis may increase the effectiveness of messages disseminated to the public. Lastly, given that the public is increasingly seeking health information from on-line and other electronic sources, health communication needs to continue to find ways to integrate new technologies into communication strategies.

  11. [History of pandemic influenza in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Keizo

    2010-09-01

    In Japan, influenza like epidemics were described many times since Heian era. However, Spanish flu as the modern medicine invaded Japan in 1918, thus almost infected 390,000 patients died with associated pneumonia. After the discovery of influenza virus in 1933, Japan experienced pandemic influenza--Asian flu(H2N2) in 1957. After about 10 years, Hong Kong flu (H3N2) came to Japan at 1968. However, we had many reliable antibiotics but had not any antiviral drug at the early time. After year 2000, we fortunately obtained reliable three antiviral drugs such as amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir. Moreover, very useful rapid test kits for influenza A and B viruses were developed and used in Japan. 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic occured in Japan after the great epidemic in Mexico and North America but elderly patient was few. With together, host conditions regarding with high risk are changing. Lessons from past several pandemic influenza are those that many issues for changing high risk conditions, viral genetic changes, developing antiviral agents, developing new useful vaccins and determinating bacterial secondary pathogens are important.

  12. Position-sensitive proportional counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopp, M.K.

    1980-01-01

    A position-sensitive proportional counter circuit uses a conventional (low-resistance, metal-wire anode) counter for spatial resolution of an ionizing event along the anode, which functions as an RC line. A pair of preamplifiers at the anode ends act as stabilized active-capacitance loads, each comprising a series-feedback, low-noise amplifier and a unity-gain, shunt-feedback amplifier whose output is connected through a feedback capacitor to the series-feedback amplifier input. The stabilized capacitance loading of the anode allows distributed RC-line position encoding and subsequent time difference decoding by sensing the difference in rise times of pulses at the anode ends where the difference is primarily in response to the distributed capacitance along the anode. This allows the use of lower resistance wire anodes for spatial radiation detection which simplifies the counter construction of handling of the anodes, and stabilizes the anode resistivity at high count rates (>10 6 counts/sec). (author)

  13. [Paleopathology and the history of medicine: the example of influenza pandemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fangerau, H

    2010-11-01

    The paper examines the history of former influenza pandemics from the perspective of changing nosographic categories. Special emphasis is put on the so-called Spanish flu of 1918. Due to its high mortality rates this pandemic is often highlighted as a warning sign for what may happen during a future pandemic. After a short introduction into the problematic status of the validity of retrospective diagnoses the history of influenza pandemics is discussed. The pandemic of 1918 is analysed from the perspective of the public health system being connected to and relying on medical and scientific debates. The reasons for this pandemic's rank as the long forgotten pandemic are discussed.

  14. Hospital Employee Willingness to Work during Earthquakes Versus Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Rachel L; Rebmann, Terri; Flood, Robert G

    2015-11-01

    Research indicates that licensed health care workers are less willing to work during a pandemic and that the willingness of nonlicensed staff to work has had limited assessment. We sought to assess and compare the willingness to work in all hospital workers during pandemics and earthquakes. An online survey was distributed to Missouri hospital employees. Participants were presented with 2 disaster scenarios (pandemic influenza and earthquake); willingness, ability, and barriers to work were measured. T tests compared willingness to work during a pandemic vs. an earthquake. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to describe factors associated with a higher willingness to work. One thousand eight hundred twenty-two employees participated (15% response rate). More willingness to work was reported for an earthquake than a pandemic (93.3% vs. 84.8%; t = 17.1; p pandemic (83.5%; t = 17.1; p pandemic willingness to work were as follows: 1) no children ≤3 years of age; 2) older children; 3) working full-time; 4) less concern for family; 5) less fear of job loss; and 6) vaccine availability. Earthquake willingness factors included: 1) not having children with special needs and 2) not working a different role. Improving care for dependent family members, worker protection, cross training, and job importance education may increase willingness to work during disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Pandemic pharmaceutical dosing effects on wastewater treatment: no adaptation of activated sludge bacteria to degrade the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) and loss of nutrient removal performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Frances R; Singer, Andrew C; Turner, Susan; Barr, Jeremy J; Bond, Philip L

    2011-02-01

    The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic saw many people treated with antivirals and antibiotics. High proportions of both classes of drugs are excreted and enter wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in biologically active forms. To date, there has been no study into the potential for influenza pandemic-scale pharmaceutical use to disrupt WWTP function. Furthermore, there is currently little indication as to whether WWTP microbial consortia can degrade antiviral neuraminidase inhibitors when exposed to pandemic-scale doses. In this study, we exposed an aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactor, operated for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR), to a simulated influenza-pandemic dosing of antibiotics and antivirals for 8 weeks. We monitored the removal of the active form of Tamiflu(®), oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), bacterial community structure, granule structure and changes in EBPR and nitrification performance. There was little removal of OC by sludge and no evidence that the activated sludge community adapted to degrade OC. There was evidence of changes to the bacterial community structure and disruption to EBPR and nitrification during and after high-OC dosing. This work highlights the potential for the antiviral contamination of receiving waters and indicates the risk of destabilizing WWTP microbial consortia as a result of high concentrations of bioactive pharmaceuticals during an influenza pandemic. © 2010 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The Pandemic Pendulum: A Critical Analysis of Federal and State Preparedness for a Pandemic Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-01

    of employee illness and absenteeism , coupled with the closely meshed and interdependent systems of trade and commerce.18 WHO also proclaimed it...outbreak of Ebola, a naturally occurring pathogen with no known cure .20 The manifestation of Pandemic Influenza in Indonesia and Ebola in Congo are but...event of significant and sustained absenteeism ? (Transportation) Does the state anticipate need for supplementation of local government

  17. Pandemic influenza: is there a corporate duty to prepare?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMenamin, Joseph P

    2009-01-01

    This article considers whether in the wake of an influenza pandemic companies may be exposed to claims of legal liability for failing to provide employees with access to antiviral medications, as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now encourages businesses to do. It begins by describing influenza and influenza pandemics. It then discusses the benefits and limitations of antiviral therapies and the recent creation of antiviral option programs. It concludes by considering whether claims may be brought on the theory that corporate leadership is under a duty to prepare for a pandemic by considering whether to provide access to antiviral protection for employees.

  18. [Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

    2012-01-01

    The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

  19. Insight Into the Origin and Evolution of the Vibrio parahaemolyticus Pandemic Strain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romilio T. Espejo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A strain of Vibrio parahaemolyticus that emerged in 1995 caused the first known pandemic involving this species. This strain comprises clonal autochthonous ocean-dwelling bacteria whose evolution has occurred in the ocean environment. The low sequence diversity in this population enabled the discovery of information on its origin and evolution that has been hidden in bacterial clones that have evolved over a long period. Multilocus sequencing and microarray analysis, together with phylogenetic analysis, of pandemic and pre-pandemic isolates has suggested that the founder clone was an O3:K6 non-pathogenic strain that initially acquired a toxRS/new region and subsequently acquired at least seven novel genomic islands. Sequencing and comparison of whole genomes later confirmed these early observations, and it confirmed that most of the genetic changes occurred via gene conversion involving horizontally transmitted DNA. The highly clonal population rapidly diversified, especially in terms of antigenicity, and 27 serotypes have already been reported. Comparisons of the core genomes derived from the founder clone indicate that there are only a few hundred single-nucleotide variations between isolates. However, when the whole genome is considered (the core plus non-core genome and from any clonal frame, the amount of DNA with a different clonal frame can reach up to 4.2% and the number of single-nucleotide variations can reach several hundred thousand. Altogether, these and previous observations based on multilocus sequence typing, microarray analysis, and whole-genome sequencing indicate the large contribution made by DNA with different clonal genealogy to genome diversification. The evidence also indicates that horizontal gene transfer (HGT caused the emergence of new pathogens. Furthermore, the extent of HGT seems to depend on the vicissitudes of the life of each bacterium, as exemplified by differences in thousands of base pairs acquired by HGT

  20. Biocommunicability and the biopolitics of pandemic threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Charles L; Nichter, Mark

    2009-07-01

    In this article we assess accounts of the H1N1 virus or "swine flu" to draw attention to the ways in which discourse about biosecurity and global health citizenship during times of pandemic alarms supports calls for the creation of global surveillance systems and naturalizes forms of governance. We propose a medical anthropology of epidemics to complement an engaged anthropology aimed at better and more critical forms of epidemic surveillance. A medical anthropology of epidemics provides insights into factors and actors that shape the ongoing production of knowledge about epidemics, how dominant and competing accounts circulate and interact, how different stakeholders (citizens, politicians, journalists, and policymakers) access and interpret information available from different sources-including through a variety of new digital venues-and what they do with it. These insights together provide a compelling agenda for medical anthropology and anyone working in health-related fields.

  1. Reducing Biosecurity Threats from Infectious Diseases of Pandemic ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The emergence of the H7N9 avian influenza virus and the Middle East Respiratory ... develop and implement pandemic preparedness and response policies. ... available to support partnered teams of Canadian and African Ebola researchers.

  2. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable...

  3. Public Health Planning for Vulnerable Populations and Pandemic Influenza

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cameron, Wendy K

    2008-01-01

    This thesis addresses planning for vulnerable populations, those segments of each community that are normally independent but that may require special assistance during a health emergency such as an influenza pandemic...

  4. The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready? : workshop summary

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Knobler, Stacey

    2005-01-01

    .... Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic...

  5. Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS): an immune dysregulatory pandemic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Butler, J. E.; Lager, K.; Golde, W.; Faaberg, K. S.; Šinkora, Marek; Loving, C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 59, 1-3 (2014), s. 81-108 ISSN 0257-277X Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : Immune dysregulation * Pandemic * Economic loss Subject RIV: EC - Immunology Impact factor: 3.098, year: 2014

  6. Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance...... systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model...... with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage...

  7. Early Detection of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mustafizur; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Haider, Mohammad Sabbir; Zaman, Rashid Uz; Karmakar, Polash Chandra; Nasreen, Sharifa; Muneer, Syeda Mah-E; Homaira, Nusrat; Goswami, Doli Rani; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Husain, Mohammad Mushtuq; Jamil, Khondokar Mahbuba; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Chakraborty, Apurba; Fry, Alicia; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Bresee, Joseph; Azim, Tasnim; Alamgir, A.S.M.; Brooks, Abdullah; Hossain, Mohamed Jahangir; Klimov, Alexander; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    To explore Bangladesh’s ability to detect novel influenza, we examined a series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases. During June–July 2009, event-based surveillance identified 30 case-patients (57% travelers); starting July 29, sentinel sites identified 252 case-patients (1% travelers). Surveillance facilitated response weeks before the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection to the general population. PMID:22257637

  8. Mathematical Assessment of Canada’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba B Gumel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

  9. Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumel, Abba B; Nuño, Miriam; Chowell, Gerardo

    2008-03-01

    The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan. A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed or infectious). The model was parametrized using available Canadian demographic data. The model was then used to evaluate the key components outlined in the Canadian plan. The results indicated that the number of cases, mortalities and hospitalizations estimated in the Canadian plan may have been underestimated; the use of antivirals, administered therapeutically, prophylactically or both, is the most effective single intervention followed by the use of a vaccine and basic public health measures; and the combined use of pharmaceutical interventions (antivirals and vaccine) can dramatically minimize the burden of the pending influenza pandemic in Canada. Based on increasing concerns of Oseltamivir resistance (wide-scale implementation), coupled with the expected unavailability of a suitable vaccine during the early stages of a pandemic, the present study evaluated the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which were not emphasized in the current Canadian plan. To this end, the findings suggest that the use of NPIs can drastically reduce the burden of a pandemic in Canada. A deterministic model was designed and used to assess Canada's pandemic preparedness plan. The study showed that the estimates of pandemic influenza burden given in the Canada pandemic preparedness plan may be an underestimate, and that Canada

  10. Waves of El Nino-southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggests that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO. ENSO cycles from 1871–2015 which had El Niño phases were windowed from Multivariate El Niño Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to nonstationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Niño. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Niño peaks, with lags of 0–5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Nonstationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Niños, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889–1900, 1957–1958, and 1968–1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7–16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Surveillance for El Niño events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.

  11. Department of Defense Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-08-01

    and Low Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC)) will provide policy oversight of the DoD Pandemic Influenza bilateral and multilateral international...flexible worksites (e.g., telecommuting ) and flexible work hours (e.g., staggered shifts) in the event of a pandemic. o Ensure development of active...however, special consideration must be given to “social distancing” in the workplace through 74 telecommuting , or other means, as an

  12. A knowledge representation of local pandemic influenza planning models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Runa; Brandeau, Margaret L; Das, Amar K

    2007-10-11

    Planning for pandemic flu outbreak at the small-government level can be aided through the use of mathematical policy models. Formulating and analyzing policy models, however, can be a time- and expertise-expensive process. We believe that a knowledge-based system for facilitating the instantiation of locale- and problem-specific policy models can reduce some of these costs. In this work, we present the ontology we have developed for pandemic influenza policy models.

  13. Strategies for Fighting Pandemic Flu in Developing Countries

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-03-04

    Countries throughout the world are preparing for the next influenza pandemic. Developing countries face special challenges because they don't have antiviral drugs or vaccines that more developed countries have. In this podcast, CDC's Dr. Dan Jernigan discusses new and innovative approaches that may help developing countries fight pandemic flu when it emerges.  Created: 3/4/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 3/4/2009.

  14. Investing in Immunity: Prepandemic Immunization to Combat Future Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Jesse L

    2016-02-15

    We are unlikely, with current technologies, to have sufficient pandemic influenza vaccine ready in time to impact the first wave of the next pandemic. Emerging data show that prior immunization with an immunologically distinct hemagglutinin of the same subtype offers the potential to "prime" recipients for rapid protection with a booster dose, years later, of a vaccine then manufactured to match the pandemic strain. This article proposes making prepandemic priming vaccine(s) available for voluntary use, particularly to those at high risk of early occupational exposure, such as first responders and healthcare workers, and to others maintaining critical infrastructure. In addition to providing faster protection and potentially reducing social disruption, being able, early in a pandemic, to immunize those who had received prepandemic vaccine with one dose of the pandemic vaccine, rather than the 2 doses typically required, would reduce the total doses of pandemic vaccine then needed, extending vaccine supplies. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  15. The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic: effects on pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptake and lessons learned for seasonal vaccination campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Gregory A

    2010-09-07

    Individual and national/cultural differences were apparent in response to the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic. Overall pandemic influenza immunization rates were low across all nations, including among healthcare workers. Among the reasons for the low coverage rates may have been a lack of concern about the individual risk of influenza, which may translate into a lack of willingness or urgency to be vaccinated, particularly if there is mistrust of information provided by public health or governmental authorities. Intuitively, a link between willingness to be vaccinated against seasonal influenza and against pandemic influenza exists, given the similarities in decision-making for this infection. As such, the public is likely to share common concerns regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly in the areas of vaccine safety and side effects, and personal risk. Given the public's perception of the low level of virulence of the recent pandemic influenza virus, there is concern that the perception of a lack of personal risk of infection and risk of vaccine side effects could adversely affect seasonal vaccine uptake. While governments are more often concerned about public anxiety and panic, as well as absenteeism of healthcare and other essential workers during a pandemic, convincing the public of the threat posed by pandemic or seasonal influenza is often the more difficult, and underappreciated task. Thus, appropriate, timely, and data-driven health information are very important issues in increasing influenza vaccine coverage, perhaps even more so in western societies where trust in government and public health reports may be lower than in other countries. This article explores what has been learned about cross-cultural responses to pandemic influenza, and seeks to apply those lessons to seasonal influenza immunization programs. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Social capital and health-protective behavior intentions in an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ying-Chih; Huang, Ya-Li; Tseng, Kuo-Chien; Yen, Chia-Hsin; Yang, Lin-hui

    2015-01-01

    Health-protective behaviors, such as receiving a vaccine, wearing a face mask, and washing hands frequently, can reduce the risk of contracting influenza. However, little is known about how social capital may influence health-protective behavior in the general population. This study examined whether each of the social capital dimensions (bonding, bridging, and linking) contributed to the intention to adopt any of the health-protective behaviors in an influenza pandemic. The data of this study were from the 2014 Taiwan Social Change Survey. A stratified, three-stage probability proportional-to-size sampling from across the nation, was conducted to select adults aged 20 years and older (N = 1,745). Bonding social capital was measured by the frequency of neighborly contact and support. Bridging social capital was measured based on association membership. Linking social capital was measured according to general government trust and trust in the government's capacity to counter an influenza pandemic. Binary logistic regressions were used to assess the multivariate associations between social capital and behavioral intention. The study results indicate that social capital may influence the response to influenza pandemic. Specifically, the intention to receive a vaccine and to wash hands more frequently were associated with the linking dimension and the bonding dimension of social capital, while the intention to wear a face mask was associated with all forms of social capital. The findings of this study suggest that government credibility and interpersonal networks may play a crucial role in health-protective behavior. This study provides new insights into how to improve the effectiveness of influenza prevention campaigns.

  17. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  18. Impossibility Theorem in Proportional Representation Problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karpov, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    The study examines general axiomatics of Balinski and Young and analyzes existed proportional representation methods using this approach. The second part of the paper provides new axiomatics based on rational choice models. New system of axioms is applied to study known proportional representation systems. It is shown that there is no proportional representation method satisfying a minimal set of the axioms (monotonicity and neutrality).

  19. Cognitive and Metacognitive Aspects of Proportional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modestou, Modestina; Gagatsis, Athanasios

    2010-01-01

    In this study we attempt to propose a new model of proportional reasoning based both on bibliographical and research data. This is impelled with the help of three written tests involving analogical, proportional, and non-proportional situations that were administered to pupils from grade 7 to 9. The results suggest the existence of a…

  20. Evaluating Middle Years Students' Proportional Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, Annette; Dole, Shelley; Hilton, Geoff; Goos, Merrilyn; O'Brien, Mia

    2012-01-01

    Proportional reasoning is a key aspect of numeracy that is not always developed naturally by students. Understanding the types of proportional reasoning that students apply to different problem types is a useful first step to identifying ways to support teachers and students to develop proportional reasoning in the classroom. This paper describes…

  1. Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2016-04-01

    A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Treatment and Prevention of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rewar, Suresh; Mirdha, Dashrath; Rewar, Prahlad

    2015-01-01

    Swine influenza is a respiratory infection common to pigs worldwide caused by type A influenza viruses, principally subtypes H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, and H2N3. Swine influenza viruses also can cause moderate to severe illness in humans and affect persons of all age groups. People in close contact with swine are at especially high risk. Until recently, epidemiological study of influenza was limited to resource-rich countries. The World Health Organization declared an H1N1 pandemic on June 11, 2009, after more than 70 countries reported 30,000 cases of H1N1 infection. In 2015, incidence of swine influenza increased substantially to reach a 5-year high. In India in 2015, 10,000 cases of swine influenza were reported with 774 deaths. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend real-time polymerase chain reaction as the method of choice for diagnosing H1N1. Antiviral drugs are the mainstay of clinical treatment of swine influenza and can make the illness milder and enable the patient to feel better faster. Antiviral drugs are most effective when they are started within the first 48 hours after the clinical signs begin, although they also may be used in severe or high-risk cases first seen after this time. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu, Genentech) or zanamivir (Relenza, GlaxoSmithKline). Prevention of swine influenza has 3 components: prevention in swine, prevention of transmission to humans, and prevention of its spread among humans. Because of limited treatment options, high risk for secondary infection, and frequent need for intensive care of individuals with H1N1 pneumonia, environmental control, including vaccination of high-risk populations and public education are critical to control of swine influenza out breaks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. [Predicting spread of new pandemic swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in local mid-size city: evaluation of hospital bed shortage and effectiveness of vaccination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Shouhei; Kuroda, Yoshiki

    2010-01-01

    On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan. We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios. Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total. We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.

  4. The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Proportioning of U3O8 powder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cermak, V.; Markvart, M.; Novy, P.; Vanka, M.

    1989-01-01

    The tests are briefly described or proportioning U 3 O 8 powder of a granulometric grain size range of 0-160 μm using a vertical screw, a horizontal dual screw and a vibration dispenser with a view to proportioning very fine U 3 O 8 powder fractions produced in the oxidation of UO 2 fuel pellets. In the tests, the evenness of proportioning was assessed by the percentage value of the proportioning rate spread measured at one-minute intervals at a proportioning rate of 1-3 kg/h. In feeding the U 3 O 3 in a flame fluorator, it is advantageous to monitor the continuity of the powder column being proportioned and to assess it radiometrically by the value of the proportioning rate spread at very short intervals (0.1 s). (author). 10 figs., 1 tab., 12 refs

  6. Spatial association between malaria pandemic and mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B M Dansu

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Malaria pandemic (MP has been linked to a range of serious health problems including premature mortality. The main objective of this research is to quantify uncertainties about impacts of malaria on mortality. A multivariate spatial regression model was developed for estimation of the risk of mortality associated with malaria across Ogun State in Nigeria, West Africa. We characterize different local governments in the data and model the spatial structure of the mortality data in infants and pregnant women. A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model was considered for a space-time series of counts (mortality by constructing a likelihood-based version of a generalized Poisson regression model that combines methods for point-level misaligned data and change of support regression. A simple two-stage procedure for producing maps of predicted risk is described. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine an approximate risk on a larger scale, and geo-statistical ("Kriging" approaches were used to improve prediction at a local level. The results suggest improvement of risk prediction brought about in the second stage. The advantages and shortcomings of this approach highlight the need for further development of a better analytical methodology.

  7. The AIDS pandemic in historic perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazanjian, Powel

    2014-07-01

    Potent antiretroviral drugs (ART) have changed the nature of AIDS, a once deadly disease, into a manageable illness and offer the promise of reducing the spread of HIV. But the pandemic continues to expand and cause significant morbidity and devastation to families and nations as ART cannot be distributed worldwide to all who need the drugs to treat their infections, prevent HIV transmission, or serve as prophylaxis. Furthermore, conventional behavioral prevention efforts based on theories that individuals can be taught to modify risky behaviors if they have the knowledge to do so have been ineffective. Noting behavioral strategies targeting individuals fail to address broader social and political structures that create environments vulnerable to HIV spread, social scientists and public health officials insist that HIV policies must be comprehensive and also target a variety of structures at the population and environmental level. Nineteenth-century public health programs that targeted environmental susceptibility are the historical analogues to today's comprehensive biomedical and structural strategies to handle AIDS. Current AIDS policies underscore that those fighting HIV using scientific advances in virology and molecular biology cannot isolate HIV from its broader environment and social context any more than their nineteenth-century predecessors who were driven by the filth theory of disease. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George J Milne

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

  9. Anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus potential of catechin and gallic acid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Huey-Ling; Huang, Chao-Chun; Chen, Chung-Jen; Chang, Cheng-Chin; Liao, Pei-Lin; Huang, Sheng-Teng

    2018-05-01

    The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread worldwide and infected a large proportion of the human population. Discovery of new and effective drugs for the treatment of influenza is a crucial issue for the global medical community. According to our previous study, TSL-1, a fraction of the aqueous extract from the tender leaf of Toonasinensis, has demonstrated antiviral activities against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) through the down-regulation of adhesion molecules and chemokine to prevent viral attachment. The aim of the present study was to identify the active compounds in TSL-1 which exert anti-influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. XTT assay was used to detect the cell viability. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect on the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was analyzed by observing plaque formation, qRT-PCR, neuraminidase activity, and immunofluorescence staining of influenza A-specific glycoprotein. Both catechin and gallic acid were found to be potent inhibitors in terms of influenza virus mRNA replication and MDCK plaque formation. Additionally, both compounds inhibited neuraminidase activities and viral glycoprotein. The 50% effective inhibition concentration (EC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid for the influenza A (H1N1) virus were 18.4 μg/mL and 2.6 μg/mL, respectively; whereas the 50% cytotoxic concentrations (CC 50 ) of catechin and gallic acid were >100 μg/mL and 22.1 μg/mL, respectively. Thus, the selectivity indexes (SI) of catechin and gallic acid were >5.6 and 22.1, respectively. The present study demonstrates that catechin might be a safe reagent for long-term use to prevent influenza A (H1N1) virus infection; whereas gallic acid might be a sensitive reagent to inhibit influenza virus infection. We conclude that these two phyto-chemicals in TSL-1 are responsible for exerting anti-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.

  10. Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sherod, II, Frank W

    2006-01-01

    .... The next national disaster facing the U.S. could be an influenza pandemic. The bird flu virus H5N1 currently threatening Asia and Europe can potentially mutate into a deadly human influenza pandemic with global consequences...

  11. Public health intelligence and the detection of potential pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Martin; Mykhalovskiy, Eric

    2013-02-01

    This article considers contemporary developments in public health intelligence (PHI), especially their focus on health events of pandemic potential. It argues that the sociological study of PHI can yield important insights for the sociology of pandemics. PHI aims to detect health events as (or even before) they unfold. Whilst its apparatuses envelope traditional public health activities, such as epidemiological surveillance, they increasingly extend to non-traditional public health activities such as data-mining in electronically mediated social networks. With a focus on non-traditional PHI activities, the article first situates the study of PHI in relation to the sociology of public health. It then discusses the conceptualisation and actualisation of pandemics, reflecting on how public health professionals and organisations must equip themselves with diverse allies in order to realise the claims they make about pandemic phenomena. Finally, using the analytic tools of actor-network theory, sites for future empirical research that can contribute to the sociology of pandemics are suggested. © 2012 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2012 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Pandemic influenza communication: views from a deliberative forum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Wendy A; Street, Jackie M; Braunack-Mayer, Annette J; Hiller, Janet E

    2009-09-01

    To use a deliberative forum to elicit community perspectives on communication about pandemic influenza planning, and to compare these findings with the current Australian national communication strategy. Deliberative forum of 12 persons randomly selected from urban South Australia. Forum members were briefed by experts in infection control, virology, ethics and public policy before deliberating on four key questions: what, how and when should the community be told about pandemic influenza and by whom? The forum recommended provision of detailed and comprehensive information by credible experts, rather than politicians, using a variety of media including television and internet. Recommendations included cumulative communication to build expertise in the community, and specific strategies to include groups such as young people, people with physical or mental disabilities, and rural and remote communities. Information provided should be practical, accurate, and timely, with no 'holding back' about the seriousness of a pandemic. The forum expressed confidence in the expert witnesses, despite the acknowledged uncertainty of many of the predictions. The deliberative forum's recommendations were largely consistent with the Australian national pandemic influenza communication strategy and the relevant literature. However, the forum recommended: release of more detailed information than currently proposed in the national strategy; use of non-political spokespersons; and use of novel communication methods. Their acceptance of uncertainty suggests that policy makers should be open about the limits of knowledge in potentially threatening situations. Our findings show that deliberative forums can provide community perspectives on topics such as communication about pandemic influenza.

  13. Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Araz Ozgur M

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000, we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP with the longest duration closure (24 weeks considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic.

  14. Pandemic influenza: human rights, ethics and duty to treat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahlman, I; Tohmo, H; Gylling, H

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic seems to be only moderately severe. In the future, a pandemic influenza with high lethality, such as the Spanish influenza in 1918-1919 or even worse, may emerge. In this kind of scenario, lethality rates ranging roughly from 2% to 30% have been proposed. Legal and ethical issues should be discussed before the incident. This article aims to highlight the legal, ethical and professional aspects that might be relevant to anaesthesiologists in the case of a high-lethality infectious disease such as a severe pandemic influenza. The epidemiology, the role of anaesthesiologists and possible threats to the profession and colleagueship within medical specialties relevant to anaesthesiologists are reviewed. During historical plague epidemics, some doctors have behaved like 'deserters'. However, during the Spanish influenza, physicians remained at their jobs, although many perished. In surveys, more than half of the health-care workers have reported their willingness to work in the case of severe pandemics. Physicians have the same human rights as all citizens: they have to be effectively protected against infectious disease. However, they have a duty to treat. Fair and responsible colleagueship among the diverse medical specialties should be promoted. Until disaster threatens humanity, volunteering to work during a pandemic might be the best way to ensure that physicians and other health-care workers stay at their workplace. Broad discussion in society is needed.

  15. Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pete Riley

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0 and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics.

  16. Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D B C; Chaiyakunapruk, N; Pratoomsoot, C; Lee, K K C; Chong, H Y; Nelson, R E; Smith, P F; Kirkpatrick, C M; Kamal, M A; Nieforth, K; Dall, G; Toovey, S; Kong, D C M; Kamauu, A; Rayner, C R

    2018-03-01

    Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

  17. Epidemiological survey on pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in Kurdistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran, 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afrasiabian, S; Mohsenpour, B; Bagheri, K H; Barari, M; Ghaderi, E; Hashemi, R; Garibi, F

    2014-04-03

    This study evaluated the epidemiology of suspected cases of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in 2009-2010 in Kurdistan province, a frontier province of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, clinical presentation and outcome, and history of exposure and travel was completed by patients attending health centres and hospitals in the province. Nasal and throat swabs were analysed by RT-PCR. A total of 1059 suspected cases were assessed; H1N1 influenza A was confirmed in 157 (14.8%). The highest proportion of confirmed cases was 30.0%, among children aged Kurdistan.

  18. Why do card issuers charge proportional fees?

    OpenAIRE

    Oz Shy; Zhu Wang

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains why payment card companies charge consumers and merchants fees which are proportional to the transaction values instead of charging a fixed per-transaction fee. Our theory shows that, even in the absence of any cost considerations, card companies earn much higher profit when they charge proportional fees. It is also shown that competition among merchants reduces card companies' gains from using proportional fees relative to a fixed per-transaction fee. Merchants are found ...

  19. Relating arithmetical techniques of proportion to geometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wijayanti, Dyana

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate how textbooks introduce and treat the theme of proportion in geometry (similarity) and arithmetic (ratio and proportion), and how these themes are linked to each other in the books. To pursue this aim, we use the anthropological theory of the didactic....... Considering 6 common Indonesian textbooks in use, we describe how proportion is explained and appears in examples and exercises, using an explicit reference model of the mathematical organizations of both themes. We also identify how the proportion themes of the geometry and arithmetic domains are linked. Our...

  20. 77 FR 6625 - Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and Health Care...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-08

    ... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for... guidance document entitled ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and... should indicate that they are submitted in response to ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza...

  1. Prevention and control of infectious diseases with pandemic potential: The EU-project SARSControl

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.A. Ahmad (Riris); R. Krumkamp (R.); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); R. Reintjes (R.)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIntroduction: The influenza pandemics of the 20 th century, the SARS epidemic in 2002 / 03 and the growing number of human cases infected with the H5N1 avian infl uenza virus clearly demonstrate that the threat of new pandemics is very real. These events have intensifi ed pandemic

  2. 5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

  3. 75 FR 55776 - Request for Comments on Vaccine Production and Additional Planning for Future Possible Pandemic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-14

    ... Production and Additional Planning for Future Possible Pandemic Influenza AGENCY: International Trade... additional planning for future possible pandemic influenza. DATES: Written comments must be submitted on or... influenza pandemic (see World Health Organization announcement of August 10, 2010) and the need to plan for...

  4. Optimal Allocation of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Depends on Age, Risk and Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mylius, S.D.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Lugner, A.K.; Wallinga, J.

    2008-01-01

    The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two

  5. Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

  6. Reaching ignition in the tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furth, H.P.

    1985-06-01

    This review covers the following areas: (1) the physics of burning plasmas, (2) plasma physics requirements for reaching ignition, (3) design studies for ignition devices, and (4) prospects for an ignition project

  7. Hospital capacity and management preparedness for pandemic influenza in Victoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewar, Ben; Barr, Ian; Robinson, Priscilla

    2014-04-01

    This study was designed to investigate acute hospital pandemic influenza preparedness in Victoria, Australia, particularly focussing on planning and management efforts. A prospective study was conducted by questionnaire and semi-structured interview of health managers across the Victorian hospital system from July to October 2011. Participants with responsibility for emergency management, planning and operations were selected from every hospital in Victoria with an emergency department to complete a questionnaire (response rate 22/43 = 51%). Each respondent was invited to participate in a phone-based semi-structured interview (response rate 11/22 = 50%). Rural/regional hospitals demonstrated higher levels of clinical (86%) and non-clinical (86%) staff contingency planning than metropolitan hospitals (60% and 40% respectively). Pandemic plans were not being sufficiently tested in exercises or drills, which is likely to undermine their effectiveness. All respondents reported hand hygiene and standard precautions programs in place, although only one-third (33%) of metropolitan respondents and no rural/regional respondents reported being able to meet patient needs with high levels of staff absenteeism. Almost half Victoria's healthcare workers were unvaccinated against influenza. Hospitals across Victoria demonstrated different levels of influenza pandemic preparedness and planning. If a more severe influenza pandemic than that of 2009 arose, Victorian hospitals would struggle with workforce and infrastructure problems, particularly in rural/regional areas. Staff absenteeism threatens to undermine hospital pandemic responses. Various strategies, including education and communication, should be included with in-service training to provide staff with confidence in their ability to work safely during a future pandemic. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  8. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

  9. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza A: balancing conflicting policy objectives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T Déirdre Hollingsworth

    Full Text Available Mitigation of a severe influenza pandemic can be achieved using a range of interventions to reduce transmission. Interventions can reduce the impact of an outbreak and buy time until vaccines are developed, but they may have high social and economic costs. The non-linear effect on the epidemic dynamics means that suitable strategies crucially depend on the precise aim of the intervention. National pandemic influenza plans rarely contain clear statements of policy objectives or prioritization of potentially conflicting aims, such as minimizing mortality (depending on the severity of a pandemic or peak prevalence or limiting the socio-economic burden of contact-reducing interventions. We use epidemiological models of influenza A to investigate how contact-reducing interventions and availability of antiviral drugs or pre-pandemic vaccines contribute to achieving particular policy objectives. Our analyses show that the ideal strategy depends on the aim of an intervention and that the achievement of one policy objective may preclude success with others, e.g., constraining peak demand for public health resources may lengthen the duration of the epidemic and hence its economic and social impact. Constraining total case numbers can be achieved by a range of strategies, whereas strategies which additionally constrain peak demand for services require a more sophisticated intervention. If, for example, there are multiple objectives which must be achieved prior to the availability of a pandemic vaccine (i.e., a time-limited intervention, our analysis shows that interventions should be implemented several weeks into the epidemic, not at the very start. This observation is shown to be robust across a range of constraints and for uncertainty in estimates of both R(0 and the timing of vaccine availability. These analyses highlight the need for more precise statements of policy objectives and their assumed consequences when planning and implementing strategies

  10. Genome plasticity of Vibrio parahaemolyticus: microevolution of the 'pandemic group'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiumei

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Outbreak of V. parahaemolyticus infections occurred since 1996 was linked to a proposed clonal complex, the pandemic group. The whole genome sequence provides an unprecedented opportunity for dissecting genome plasticity and phylogeny of the populations of V. parahaemolyticus. In the present work, a whole-genome cDNA microarray was constructed to compare the genomic contents of a collection of 174 strains of V. parahaemolyticus. Results Genes that present variably in the genome accounted for about 22% of the whole gene pool on the genome. The phylogenetic analysis of microarray data generated a minimum spanning tree that depicted the phylogenetic structure of the 174 strains. Strains were assigned into five complexes (C1 to C5, and those in each complex were related genetically and phylogenetically. C3 and C4 represented highly virulent clinical clones. C2 and C3 constituted two different clonal complexes 'old-O3:K6 clone' and 'pandemic clone', respectively. C3 included all the 39 pandemic strains tested (trh-, tdh+ and GS-PCR+, while C2 contained 12 pre-1996 'old' O3:K6 strains (trh+, tdh- and GS-PCR- tested herein. The pandemic clone (post-1996 'new' O3:K6 and its derivates O4:K68, O1:K25, O1:KUT and O6:K18 might be emerged from the old-O3:K6 clone, which was promoted by acquisition of toxRS/new sequence and genomic islands. A phylogenetic intermediate O3:K6 clade (trh-, tdh- and GS-PCR+ was identified between the pandemic and old-O3:K6 clones. Conclusion A comprehensive overview of genomic contents in a large collection of global isolates from the microarray-based comparative genomic hybridization data enabled us to construct a phylogenetic structure of V. parahaemolyticus and an evolutionary history of the pandemic group (clone of this pathogen.

  11. Assessing the ecotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Andrew C; Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E; Keller, Virginie D J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J

    2011-08-01

    The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 5-32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 0-30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity.

  12. Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

    2011-01-01

    Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

  13. Continuity of Accelerator Operations during an Extended Pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel Okay

    2010-01-01

    The Operations group for the Continuous Electron Accelerator Facility in Newport News Virginia has developed a Continuity of Operations plan for pandemic conditions when high absenteeism may impact accelerator control room operations. Protocols to address both the potential spread of illnesses in the control room environment as well as maintaining minimum staffing requirements for contiguous accelerator operation will be presented. During acute pandemic conditions local government restrictions may prevent continued operations but during extended periods of high absenteeism accelerator operations can continue when some added precautionary measures and staffing adjustments are made in the way business is done.

  14. Proportional Reasoning and the Visually Impaired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilton, Geoff; Hilton, Annette; Dole, Shelley L.; Goos, Merrilyn; O'Brien, Mia

    2012-01-01

    Proportional reasoning is an important aspect of formal thinking that is acquired during the developmental years that approximate the middle years of schooling. Students who fail to acquire sound proportional reasoning often experience difficulties in subjects that require quantitative thinking, such as science, technology, engineering, and…

  15. Adaptive bayesian analysis for binomial proportions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available of testing the proportion of some trait. For example, say, we are interested to infer about the effectiveness of a certain intervention teaching strategy, by comparing proportion of ‘proficient’ teachers, before and after an intervention. The number...

  16. Mix Proportion Design of Asphalt Concrete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xianhu; Gao, Lingling; Du, Shoujun

    2017-12-01

    Based on the gradation of AC and SMA, this paper designs a new type of anti slide mixture with two types of advantages. Chapter introduces the material selection, ratio of ore mixture ratio design calculation, and determine the optimal asphalt content test and proportioning design of asphalt concrete mix. This paper introduces the new technology of mix proportion.

  17. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Elson H Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Cook, Alex R; Wong, Jessica Y T; Lau, Max S Y; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2011-11-11

    Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult

  18. The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lam Elson HY

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99% would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined. Methods A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009. Results Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks. Conclusions Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less

  19. Proportional gas scintillation detectors and their applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petr, I.

    1978-01-01

    The principle is described of a gas proportional scintillation detector and its function. Dependence of Si(Li) and xenon proportional detectors energy resolution on the input window size is given. A typical design is shown of a xenon detector used for X-ray spetrometry at an energy of 277 eV to 5.898 keV and at a gas pressure of 98 to 270 kPa. Gas proportional scintillation detectors show considerable better energy resolution than common proportional counters and even better resolution than semiconductor Si(Li) detectors for low X radiation energies. For detection areas smaller than 25 mm 2 Si(Li) detectors show better resolution, especially for higher X radiation energies. For window areas 25 to 190 mm 2 both types of detectors are equal, for a window area exceeding 190 mm 2 the proportional scintillation detector has higher energy resolution. (B.S.)

  20. The Evaluations of Swine Flu Magnitudes in TV News: A Comparative Analysis of Paired Influenza Pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Po-Lin; Meng, Juan

    2015-01-01

    This study examined how major TV news networks covered two flu pandemics in 1976 and 2009 in terms of news frames, mortality exemplars, mortality subject attributes, vaccination, evaluation approaches, and news sources. Results showed that the first pandemic was frequently framed with the medical/scientific and political/legal issues, while the second pandemic was emphasized with the health risk issue in TV news. Both flu pandemics were regularly reported with mortality exemplars, but the focus in the first pandemic was on the flu virus threat and vaccination side effects, while the vaccination shortage was frequently revealed in the second outbreak.

  1. Icon arrays help younger children's proportional reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggeri, Azzurra; Vagharchakian, Laurianne; Xu, Fei

    2018-06-01

    We investigated the effects of two context variables, presentation format (icon arrays or numerical frequencies) and time limitation (limited or unlimited time), on the proportional reasoning abilities of children aged 7 and 10 years, as well as adults. Participants had to select, between two sets of tokens, the one that offered the highest likelihood of drawing a gold token, that is, the set of elements with the greater proportion of gold tokens. Results show that participants performed better in the unlimited time condition. Moreover, besides a general developmental improvement in accuracy, our results show that younger children performed better when proportions were presented as icon arrays, whereas older children and adults were similarly accurate in the two presentation format conditions. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? There is a developmental improvement in proportional reasoning accuracy. Icon arrays facilitate reasoning in adults with low numeracy. What does this study add? Participants were more accurate when they were given more time to make the proportional judgement. Younger children's proportional reasoning was more accurate when they were presented with icon arrays. Proportional reasoning abilities correlate with working memory, approximate number system, and subitizing skills. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

  2. The Benefits and Risks of Pandemic Influenza Vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G. Wijnans (Leonoor)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractIn 2009 and 2010 the world experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. As the new influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus spread across the world, vaccines were being produced and licensed at an unprecedented scale and speed. In Europe, adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted H1N1pdm09

  3. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: A discrete choice experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Determann (Domino); I.J. Korfage (Ida); A.C. Lambooij (Antoinette); M.C.J. Bliemer (Michiel); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); E.W. de Bekker-Grob (Esther)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general

  4. Highlight: Dr David Butler-Jones on fighting pandemics | CRDI ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    15 avr. 2016 ... Dr David Butler-Jones, professor in the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Manitoba and former Chief Medical Health Officer of Canada, delivered a lecture on lessons learned from the 2009 flu pandemic in Canada. He also commented on India's draft National Health Policy 2015 at the India ...

  5. Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2005-05-21

    In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.

  6. Influenza: the next pandemic?: a review | Adungo, | East African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Due to the diversity of susceptible reservoirs of influenza viruses and the interspecies transmission recently reported, a mutated strain of the virus to which people have no immunity could cause an influenza pandemic once the virus gains efficient and sustained human-to-human transmission. The fear that avian influenza ...

  7. Avian influenza A viruses: From zoonosis to pandemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Richard (Mathilde); M.T. de Graaf (Marieke); S. Herfst (Sander)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractZoonotic influenza A viruses originating from the animal reservoir pose a threat for humans, as they have the ability to trigger pandemics upon adaptation to and invasion of an immunologically naive population. Of particular concern are the H5N1 viruses that continue to circulate in

  8. Deciphering the Swine-Flu Pandemics of 1918 and 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Richard; Dos Reis, Mario; Tamuri, Asif; Hay, Alan

    The devastating "Spanish flu" of 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, ranking it as the deadliest pandemic in recorded human history. It is generally believed that the virus transferred from birds directly to humans shortly before the start of the pandemic, subsequently jumping from humans to swine. By developing 'non-homogeneous' substitution models that consider that substitution patterns may be different in human, avian, and swine hosts, we can determine the timing of the host shift to mammals. We find it likely that the Spanish flu of 1918, like the current 2009 pandemic, was a 'swine-origin' influenza virus. Now that we are faced with a new pandemic, can we understand how influenza is able to change hosts? Again by modelling the evolutionary process, considering the different selective constraints for viruses in the different hosts, we can identify locations that seem to be under different selective constraints in humans and avian hosts. This allows us to identify changes that may have facilitated the establishment of the 2009 swine-origin flu in humans.

  9. Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Planning Template for Primary Care Offices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The Abbreviated Pandemic Influenza Plan Template for Primary Care Provider Offices is intended to assist primary care providers and office managers with preparing their offices for quickly putting a plan in place to handle an increase in patient calls and visits, whether during the 2009-2010 influenza season or future influenza seasons.

  10. Considerable progress in European preparations for a potential influenza pandemic.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paget, J.

    2005-01-01

    The threat of an influenza pandemic has been heightened in the past two years by outbreaks of avian influenza concentrated in South East Asia which have resulted in human deaths. So far, the avian influenza virus seems difficult to transmit from human to human, but changes in the virus genome may

  11. Pneumococcal Pneumonia and Pandemic H1N1

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-06-06

    Dr. George Nelson, a CDC medical officer, discusses the relationship between pneumococcal pneumonia and Pandemic H1N1.  Created: 6/6/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/6/2012.

  12. Count rate effect in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednarek, B.

    1980-01-01

    A critical evaluaton is presented of the actual state of investigations and explanations of the resolution and pulse height changes resulted in proportional counters from radiation intensity variations. (author)

  13. A multiwire proportional counter for very high counting rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbosa, A.F.; Guedes, G.P.; Tamura, E.; Pepe, I.M.; Oliveira, N.B.

    1997-12-01

    Preliminary measurements in a proportional counter with two independently counting wires showed that counting rates up to 10 6 counts/s per wire can be reached without critical loss in the true versus measured linearity relation. Results obtained with a detector containing 30 active wires (2 mm pitch) are presented. To each wire is associated a fast pre-amplifier and a discriminator channel. Global counting rates in excess to 10 7 events/s are reported. Data acquisition systems are described for 1D (real time) and 2D (off-line) position sensitive detection systems. (author)

  14. A multiwire proportional counter for very high counting rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbosa, A F; Guedes, G P [Centro Brasileiro de Pesquisas Fisicas (CBPF), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Tamura, E [Laboratorio Nacional de Luz Sincrotron (LNLS), Campinas, SP (Brazil); Pepe, I M; Oliveira, N B [Bahia Univ., Salvador, BA (Brazil). Inst. de Fisica

    1997-12-01

    Preliminary measurements in a proportional counter with two independently counting wires showed that counting rates up to 10{sup 6} counts/s per wire can be reached without critical loss in the true versus measured linearity relation. Results obtained with a detector containing 30 active wires (2 mm pitch) are presented. To each wire is associated a fast pre-amplifier and a discriminator channel. Global counting rates in excess to 10{sup 7} events/s are reported. Data acquisition systems are described for 1D (real time) and 2D (off-line) position sensitive detection systems. (author) 13 refs., 6 figs.

  15. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: a discrete choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Determann, Domino; Korfage, Ida J; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Bliemer, Michiel; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Steyerberg, Ewout W; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W

    2014-01-01

    Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations. In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make. All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents' preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6-€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake. We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents' preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks

  16. Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: a discrete choice experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domino Determann

    Full Text Available Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations.In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs. The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make.All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents' preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6-€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine. Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake.We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents' preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic

  17. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua M Epstein

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration.A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product.International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while

  18. Pandemics and immune memory in the noisy Penna model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cebrat, Stanisław; Bonkowska, Katarzyna; Biecek, Przemysław

    2007-06-01

    In the noisy Penna model of ageing, instead of counting the number of defective loci which eventually kill an individual, the noise describing the health status of individuals is introduced. This white noise is composed of two components: the environmental one and the personal one. If the sum of both trespasses the limit set for the individuals homeodynamics the individual dies. The energy of personal fluctuations depends on the number of defective loci expressed in the individuals genome. Environmental fluctuations, the same for all individuals can include some signals, corresponding to the exposition to pathogens which could be dangerous for a fraction of the organisms. Personal noise and the component of random environmental fluctuations, when superimposed on the signal can be life threatening if they are stronger than the limit set for individuals homeodynamics. Nevertheless, some organisms survive the period of dangerous signal and they may remember the signal in the future, like antigens are remembered by our immune systems. Unfortunately, this memory weakens with time and, even worse, some additional defective genes are switched on during the ageing. If the same pathogens (signals) emerge during the lifespan of the population, a fraction of the population could remember it and could respond by increasing the resistance to it. Again, unfortunately for some individuals, their memory could be too weak and their own health status has worsened due to the accumulated mutations, they have to die. Though, a fraction of individuals can survive the pandemics due to the immune memory, but a fraction of population has no such a memory because they were born after the last pandemic or they didnt notice this pandemic. Our simple model, by implementing the noise instead of deterministic threshold of genetic defects, describes how the impact of pandemics on populations depends on the time which elapsed between the two incidents and how the different age groups of

  19. Genome assortment, not serogroup, defines Vibrio cholerae pandemic strains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brettin, Thomas S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bruce, David C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Challacombe, Jean F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Detter, John C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Han, Cliff S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Munik, A C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chertkov, Olga [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Meincke, Linda [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Saunders, Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Choi, Seon Y [SEOUL NATL. UNIV.; Haley, Bradd J [U. MARYLAND; Taviani, Elisa [U. MARYLAND; Jeon, Yoon - Seong [INTL. VACCINE INST. SEOUL; Kim, Dong Wook [INTL. VACCINE INST. SEOUL; Lee, Jae - Hak [SEOUL NATL. UNIV.; Walters, Ronald A [PNNL; Hug, Anwar [NATL. INST. CHOLERIC ENTERIC DIS.; Colwell, Rita R [U. MARYLAND

    2009-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, and a serious public health threat. V. cholerae serogroup O1 is responsible for the previous two cholera pandemics, in which classical and El Tor biotypes were dominant in the 6th and the current 7th pandemics, respectively. Cholera researchers continually face newly emerging and re-emerging pathogenic clones carrying combinations of new serogroups as well as of phenotypic and genotypic properties. These genotype and phenotype changes have hampered control of the disease. Here we compare the complete genome sequences of 23 strains of V. cholerae isolated from a variety of sources and geographical locations over the past 98 years in an effort to elucidate the evolutionary mechanisms governing genetic diversity and genesis of new pathogenic clones. The genome-based phylogeny revealed 12 distinct V. cholerae phyletic lineages, of which one, designated the V. cholerae core genome (CG), comprises both O1 classical and EI Tor biotypes. All 7th pandemic clones share nearly identical gene content, i.e., the same genome backbone. The transition from 6th to 7th pandemic strains is defined here as a 'shift' between pathogenic clones belonging to the same O1 serogroup, but from significantly different phyletic lineages within the CG clade. In contrast, transition among clones during the present 7th pandemic period can be characterized as a 'drift' between clones, differentiated mainly by varying composition of laterally transferred genomic islands, resulting in emergence of variants, exemplified by V.cholerae serogroup O139 and V.cholerae O1 El Tor hybrid clones that produce cholera toxin of classical biotype. Based on the comprehensive comparative genomics presented in this study it is concluded that V. cholerae undergoes extensive genetic recombination via lateral gene transfer, and, therefore, genome assortment, not serogroup, should be used to

  20. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT-CHE

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.

  1. University life and pandemic influenza: Attitudes and intended behaviour of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacIntyre C Raina

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a pandemic young adults are more likely to be infected, increasing the potential for Universities to be explosive disease outbreak centres. Outbreak management is essential to reduce the impact in both the institution and the surrounding community. Through the use of an online survey, we aimed to measure the perceptions and responses of staff and students towards pandemic (H1N1 2009 at a major university in Sydney, Australia. Methods The survey was available online from 29 June to 30 September 2009. The sample included academic staff, general staff and students of the University. Results A total of 2882 surveys were completed. Nearly all respondents (99.6%, 2870/2882 were aware of the Australian pandemic situation and 64.2% (1851/2882 reported either "no anxiety" or "disinterest." Asian-born respondents were significantly (p Conclusions Responses to a pandemic are subject to change in its pre-, early and mid-outbreak stages. Lessons for these institutions in preparation for a second wave and future disease outbreaks include the need to promote positive public health behaviours amongst young people and students.

  2. Proportion congruency effects: Instructions may be enough

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga eEntel

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Learning takes time, namely, one needs to be exposed to contingency relations between stimulus dimensions in order to learn, whereas intentional control can be recruited through task demands. Therefore showing that control can be recruited as a function of experimental instructions alone, that is, adapting the processing according to the instructions before the exposure to the task, can be taken as evidence for existence of control recruitment in the absence of learning. This was done by manipulating the information given at the outset of the experiment. In the first experiment, we manipulated list-level congruency proportion. Half of the participants were informed that most of the stimuli would be congruent, whereas the other half were informed that most of the stimuli would be incongruent. This held true for the stimuli in the second part of each experiment. In the first part, however, the proportion of the two stimulus types was equal. A proportion congruent effect was found in both parts of the experiment, but it was larger in the second part. In our second experiment, we manipulated the proportion of the stimuli within participants by applying an item-specific design. This was done by presenting some color words most often in their congruent color, and other color words in incongruent colors. Participants were informed about the exact word-color pairings in advance. Similar to Experiment 1, this held true only for the second experimental part. In contrast to our first experiment, informing participants in advance did not result in an item-specific proportion effect, which was observed only in the second part. Thus our results support the hypothesis that instructions may be enough to trigger list-level control, yet learning does contribute to the proportion congruent effect under such conditions. The item-level proportion effect is apparently caused by learning or at least it is moderated by it.

  3. Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Lemaitre

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

  4. Did pandemic preparedness aid the response to pandemic (H1N1) 2009? A qualitative analysis in seven countries within the WHO European Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashim, Ahmed; Jean-Gilles, Lucie; Hegermann-Lindencrone, Michala; Shaw, Ian; Brown, Caroline; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan

    2012-08-01

    Although the 2009-2010 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was of low severity compared with other pandemics of the 20th century, this pandemic was the first opportunity for countries to implement a real-life pandemic response. The aim of the project was to review the extent to which these plans and planning activities proved useful and to identify areas of pandemic planning that require further strengthening. We randomly selected seven countries within the WHO European Region to participate in a comprehensive, qualitative study to evaluate the pandemic preparedness activities undertaken prior to March 2009 compared with the subsequent pandemic responses mounted from May 2009 onwards. Research teams visited each country and interviewed stakeholders from health and civil response ministries, national public health authorities, regional authorities and family and hospital doctors. The following six consistent themes were identified as essential elements of successful pandemic preparedness activities: communication, coordination, capacity building, adaptability/flexibility, leadership and mutual support. Regarding future pandemic preparedness activities, an emphasis on these areas should be retained and planning for the following activities should be improved: communication (i.e., with the public and health professionals); coordination of vaccine procurement and logistics; flexibility of response and hospital surveillance. Pandemic preparedness activities were successfully undertaken in the WHO European Region prior to the 2009 pandemic. These activities proved to be effective and were generally appropriate for the response provided in 2009. Nevertheless, consistent themes also emerged regarding specific areas of under planning that were common to most of the surveyed countries. Copyright © 2012 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. RECORDS REACHING RECORDING DATA TECHNOLOGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. L. Gresik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The goal of RECORDS (Reaching Recording Data Technologies is the digital capturing of buildings and cultural heritage objects in hard-to-reach areas and the combination of data. It is achieved by using a modified crane from film industry, which is able to carry different measuring systems. The low-vibration measurement should be guaranteed by a gyroscopic controlled advice that has been , developed for the project. The data were achieved by using digital photography, UV-fluorescence photography, infrared reflectography, infrared thermography and shearography. Also a terrestrial 3D laser scanner and a light stripe topography scanner have been used The combination of the recorded data should ensure a complementary analysis of monuments and buildings.

  6. Records Reaching Recording Data Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gresik, G. W. L.; Siebe, S.; Drewello, R.

    2013-07-01

    The goal of RECORDS (Reaching Recording Data Technologies) is the digital capturing of buildings and cultural heritage objects in hard-to-reach areas and the combination of data. It is achieved by using a modified crane from film industry, which is able to carry different measuring systems. The low-vibration measurement should be guaranteed by a gyroscopic controlled advice that has been , developed for the project. The data were achieved by using digital photography, UV-fluorescence photography, infrared reflectography, infrared thermography and shearography. Also a terrestrial 3D laser scanner and a light stripe topography scanner have been used The combination of the recorded data should ensure a complementary analysis of monuments and buildings.

  7. Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S; Kreijtz, Joost H C M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Claassen, E

    2015-08-20

    A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT-AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Proportional hazards models of infrastructure system recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barker, Kash; Baroud, Hiba

    2014-01-01

    As emphasis is being placed on a system's ability to withstand and to recover from a disruptive event, collectively referred to as dynamic resilience, there exists a need to quantify a system's ability to bounce back after a disruptive event. This work applies a statistical technique from biostatistics, the proportional hazards model, to describe (i) the instantaneous rate of recovery of an infrastructure system and (ii) the likelihood that recovery occurs prior to a given point in time. A major benefit of the proportional hazards model is its ability to describe a recovery event as a function of time as well as covariates describing the infrastructure system or disruptive event, among others, which can also vary with time. The proportional hazards approach is illustrated with a publicly available electric power outage data set

  9. The Origins of Scintillator Non-Proportionality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, W. W.; Bizarri, G. A.; Williams, R. T.; Payne, S. A.; Vasil'ev, A. N.; Singh, J.; Li, Q.; Grim, J. Q.; Choong, W.-S.

    2012-10-01

    Recent years have seen significant advances in both theoretically understanding and mathematically modeling the underlying causes of scintillator non-proportionality. The core cause is that the interaction of radiation with matter invariably leads to a non-uniform ionization density in the scintillator, coupled with the fact that the light yield depends on the ionization density. The mechanisms that lead to the luminescence dependence on ionization density are incompletely understood, but several important features have been identified, notably Auger-like processes (where two carriers of excitation interact with each other, causing one to de-excite non-radiatively), the inability of excitation carriers to recombine (caused either by trapping or physical separation), and the carrier mobility. This paper reviews the present understanding of the fundamental origins of scintillator non-proportionality, specifically the various theories that have been used to explain non-proportionality.

  10. "Is it Going to be Real?" Narrative and Media on a Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Davis

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I examine the narrative-media nexus as it relates to pandemics. Communications feature in global public health efforts to address the emergence of a pandemic, an event typically marked by the proliferation of news stories. Pandemics are also a perennial subject of film, television, literature and online games and pandemic narratives travel across and blend the genres of science fiction, alien invasion and zombie horror. Underlining this genre-blending, public health communication on pandemics has appropriated the figure of the zombie to encourage interest in preparation for pandemic threats. Drawing on examples from public communications and popular culture in dialogue with interviews and focus groups conducted with health professionals and members of the general public, I advance an account of the transmediated knowledge and meanings of pandemic narrative. I examine how pandemics become objects of knowledge in narrative, the ways in which narrative is appropriated to communicate a pandemic's temporal and affective qualities, and how, in the circumstances of an actual outbreak, publics are invited to consider themselves as the ideal, "alert, but not alarmed" subjects of the pandemic storyworld. URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs1701187

  11. Pandemic influenza – including a risk assessment of H5N1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubenberger, J.K.; Morens, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    Summary Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses. PMID:19618626

  12. Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubenberger, J K; Morens, D M

    2009-04-01

    Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses.

  13. Toward a collaborative model of pandemic preparedness and response: Taiwan's changing approach to pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Jonathan; Yen, Muh-Yong

    2017-04-01

    Over time, as newly emerging infectious diseases have become increasingly common and more easily spread, it has become clear that traditional response mechanisms have proven inadequate to the task of prevention and control. To explore whether enhanced cooperation with local government and community institutions can effectively supplement traditional state-centric public health epidemic responses. Drawing on Taiwan as a case study, we assess the role of the whole-of-society approach to epidemic response as arises from the collaborative governance literature. The approach calls for enhanced cooperation, trust building, resource sharing and consensus-oriented decision making among multiple levels of government, business, non-profits, and the public in general. The Taiwan case illustrates the benefits of the whole-of-society approach. Enhanced cooperation between state, local government and non-state institutions, particularly neighborhood committees, has resulted in a strengthened, holistic epidemic preparedness and response infrastructure. The Taiwan case provides evidence that by implementing the whole-of-society approach to pandemic preparedness and response governments can enhance their ability to manage future outbreaks. We recommend that governments beyond Taiwan's borders seriously consider adopting this approach. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Large-Scale Analysis of Art Proportions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karl Kristoffer

    2014-01-01

    While literature often tries to impute mathematical constants into art, this large-scale study (11 databases of paintings and photos, around 200.000 items) shows a different truth. The analysis, consisting of the width/height proportions, shows a value of rarely if ever one (square) and with majo......While literature often tries to impute mathematical constants into art, this large-scale study (11 databases of paintings and photos, around 200.000 items) shows a different truth. The analysis, consisting of the width/height proportions, shows a value of rarely if ever one (square...

  15. Hospital-based pandemic influenza preparedness and response: strategies to increase surge capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarfone, Richard J; Coffin, Susan; Fieldston, Evan S; Falkowski, Grace; Cooney, Mary G; Grenfell, Stephanie

    2011-06-01

    In the spring of 2009, the first patients infected with 2009 H1N1 virus were arriving for care in hospitals in the United States. Anticipating a second wave of infection, our hospital leaders initiated multidisciplinary planning activities to prepare to increase capacity by expansion of emergency department (ED) and inpatient functional space and redeployment of medical personnel. During the fall pandemic surge, this urban, tertiary-care children's hospital experienced a 48% increase in ED visits and a 12% increase in daily peak inpatient census. However, several strategies were effective in mitigating the pandemic's impact including using a portion of the hospital's lobby for ED waiting, using a subspecialty clinic and a 24-hour short stay unit to care for ED patients, and using physicians not board certified in pediatric emergency medicine and inpatient-unit medical nurses to care for ED patients. The average time patients waited to be seen by an ED physician and the proportion of children leaving the ED without being seen by a physician was less than for the period when seasonal influenza peaked in the winter of 2008-2009. Furthermore, the ED did not go on divert status, no elective medical or surgical admissions required cancellation, and there were no increases in serious patient safety events. Our health center successfully met the challenges posed by the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. The intent in sharing the details of our planning and experience is to allow others to determine which elements of this planning might be adapted for managing a surge of patients in their setting.

  16. Decision Making with Regard to Antiviral Intervention during an Influenza Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Eunha; Chapman, Gretchen B.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2012-01-01

    Background Antiviral coverage is defined by the proportion of the population that takes antiviral prophylaxis or treatment. High coverage of an antiviral drug has epidemiological and evolutionary repercussions. Antivirals select for drug resistance within the population, and individuals may experience adverse effects. To determine optimal antiviral coverage in the context of an influenza outbreak, we compared 2 perspectives: 1) the individual level (the Nash perspective), and 2) the population level (utilitarian perspective). Methods We developed an epidemiological game-theoretic model of an influenza pandemic. The data sources were published literature and a national survey. The target population was the US population. The time horizon was 6 months. The perspective was individuals and the population overall. The interventions were antiviral prophylaxis and treatment. The outcome measures were the optimal coverage of antivirals in an influenza pandemic. Results At current antiviral pricing, the optimal Nash strategy is 0% coverage for prophylaxis and 30% coverage for treatment, whereas the optimal utilitarian strategy is 19% coverage for prophylaxis and 100% coverage for treatment. Subsidizing prophylaxis by $440 and treatment by $85 would bring the Nash and utilitarian strategies into alignment. For both prophylaxis and treatment, the optimal antiviral coverage decreases as pricing of antivirals increases. Our study does not incorporate the possibility of an effective vaccine and lacks probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Our survey also does not completely represent the US population. Because our model assumes a homogeneous population and homogeneous antiviral pricing, it does not incorporate heterogeneity of preference. Conclusions The optimal antiviral coverage from the population perspective and individual perspectives differs widely for both prophylaxis and treatment strategies. Optimal population and individual strategies for prophylaxis and treatment might

  17. Efficacy of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus vaccine in pigs against the pandemic influenza virus is superior to commercially available swine influenza vaccines.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loeffen, W.L.A.; Stockhofe-Zurwieden, N.; Weesendorp, E.; Zoelen-Bos, van D.J.; Heutink, R.; Quak, J.; Goovaerts, D.; Heldens, J.; Maas, H.A.; Moormann, R.J.M.; Koch, G.

    2011-01-01

    In April 2009 a new influenza A/H1N1 strain, currently named “pandemic (H1N1) influenza 2009¿ (H1N1v), started the first official pandemic in humans since 1968. Several incursions of this virus in pig herds have also been reported from all over the world. Vaccination of pigs may be an option to

  18. Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhardt, Bernice

    2009-01-01

    As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

  19. Epidemiological characteristics and underlying risk factors for mortality during the autumn 2009 pandemic wave in Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Chowell

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Elucidating the role of the underlying risk factors for severe outcomes of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic could be crucial to define priority risk groups in resource-limited settings in future pandemics. METHODS: We use individual-level clinical data on a large series of ARI (acute respiratory infection hospitalizations from a prospective surveillance system of the Mexican Social Security medical system to analyze clinical features at presentation, admission delays, selected comorbidities and receipt of seasonal vaccine on the risk of A/H1N1-related death. We considered ARI hospitalizations and inpatient-deaths, and recorded demographic, geographic, and medical information on individual patients during August-December, 2009. RESULTS: Seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of death among A/H1N1 inpatients (OR = 0.43 (95% CI: 0.25, 0.74 after adjustment for age, gender, geography, antiviral treatment, admission delays, comorbidities and medical conditions. However, this result should be interpreted with caution as it could have been affected by factors not directly measured in our study. Moreover, the effect of antiviral treatment against A/H1N1 inpatient death did not reach statistical significance (OR = 0.56 (95% CI: 0.29, 1.10 probably because only 8.9% of A/H1N1 inpatients received antiviral treatment. Moreover, diabetes (OR = 1.6 and immune suppression (OR = 2.3 were statistically significant risk factors for death whereas asthmatic persons (OR = 0.3 or pregnant women (OR = 0.4 experienced a reduced fatality rate among A/H1N1 inpatients. We also observed an increased risk of death among A/H1N1 inpatients with admission delays >2 days after symptom onset (OR = 2.7. Similar associations were also observed for A/H1N1-negative inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical variation in identified medical risk factors including prevalence of diabetes and immune suppression may in part

  20. Investigation of a multiwire proportional chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konijn, J.

    1976-01-01

    The article discusses some aspects of a prototype multiwire proportional chamber for electron detection located at IKO in Amsterdam, i.e. voltage, counting rates, noise and gas mixture (argon, ethylene bromide). The efficiency and performance of the chamber have been investigated and an error analysis is given

  1. Author: IM Rautenbach PROPORTIONALITY AND THE LIMITATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    10332324

    public law, it is not clear to me that there are any differences at this more abstract ... Bills of Rights entrench "basic principles of rationality and proportionality – of ..... Sweet Europe of Rights 10-11; Van Dijk and Van Hoof Theory and Practice.

  2. Obtaining a Proportional Allocation by Deleting Items

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dorn, B.; de Haan, R.; Schlotter, I.; Röthe, J.

    2017-01-01

    We consider the following control problem on fair allocation of indivisible goods. Given a set I of items and a set of agents, each having strict linear preference over the items, we ask for a minimum subset of the items whose deletion guarantees the existence of a proportional allocation in the

  3. Proportional green time scheduling for traffic lights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Kovacs; Le, T. (Tung); R. Núñez Queija (Rudesindo); Vu, H. (Hai); N. Walton

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe consider the decentralized scheduling of a large number of urban traffic lights. We investigate factors determining system performance, in particular, the length of the traffic light cycle and the proportion of green time allocated to each junction. We study the effect of the length

  4. Triangular tube proportional wire chamber system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badtke, D H; Bakken, J A; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B J; Chien, C Y; Madansky, L; Matthews, J A.J.; Pevsner, A; Spangler, W J [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (USA); Lee, K L [California Univ., Berkeley (USA). Lawrence Berkeley Lab.

    1981-10-15

    We report on the characteristics of the proportional tube chamber system which has been constructed for muon identification in the PEP-4 experiment at SLAC. The mechanical and electrical properties of the extruded aluminum triangular tubes allow these detectors to be used as crude drift chambers.

  5. Commanding to 'Nudge' via the Proportionality Principle?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.P. Purnhagen (Kai); E. van Kleef (Ellen)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThis piece assesses whether nudging techniques can be argued to be a less restrictive but equally effective way to regulate diets in EU law. It has been argued that nudging techniques, due to their freedom-preserving nature, might influence the proportionality test in such a way that

  6. Proportionality in enterprise development of South African towns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maitland T. Seaman

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We investigated proportionalities in the enterprise structures of 125 South African towns through examining four hypotheses, (1 the magnitude of enterprise development in a town is a function of the population size of the town; (2 the size of an enterprise assemblage of a town is a function of the town’s age; (3 there are statistically significant relationships, and hence proportionalities, between the total number of enterprises in towns and some, if not all, of the enterprise numbers of different business sectors in towns; and (4 the implications of proportionalities have far-reaching implications for rural development and job creation. All hypotheses were accepted on the basis of statistically significant (p < 0.05 correlations, except for the second hypothesis – the age of a town does not determine the size of its enterprise assemblage. Analysis for the fourth hypothesis suggested that there are two broad entrepreneurial types in South African towns: ‘run-of-the-mill’ entrepreneurs and ‘special’ entrepreneurs, which give rise to different enterprise development dynamics. ‘Run-of-the-mill’ enterprises are dependent on, and limited by, local demand and if there is only a small demand, the entrepreneurial space is small. By comparison, ‘special’ enterprises have much larger markets because their products and/or services are exportable. We propose that the fostering of ‘special’ entrepreneurs is an imperative for local economic development in South African towns.

  7. REACH and nanomaterials: current status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alessandrelli, Maria; Di Prospero Fanghella, Paola; Polci, Maria Letizia; Castelli, Stefano; Pettirossi, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    New challenges for regulators are emerging about a specific assessment and appropriate management of the potential risks of nanomaterials. In the framework of European legislation on chemicals, Regulation (EC) No. 1907/2006 REACH aims to ensure the safety of human health and the environment through the collection of information on the physico-chemical characteristics of the substances and on their profile (eco) toxicological and the identification of appropriate risk management linked to 'exposure to these substances without impeding scientific progress and the competitiveness of industry. In order to cover the current shortage of information on the safety of nanomaterials and tackle the acknowledged legal vacuum, are being a rich activities, carried out both by regulators both by stake holders, and discussions on the proposals for adapting the European regulatory framework for chemicals . The European Commission is geared to strengthen the REACH Regulation by means of updates of its annexes. The importance of responding to the regulatory requirements has highlighted the need for cooperation between European organizations, scientists and industries to promote and ensure the safe use of nanomaterials. [it

  8. Preparedness for pandemics: does variation among states affect the nation as a whole?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Margaret A; Brown, Shawn T; Lee, Bruce Y; Grefenstette, John; Keane, Christopher R; Lin, Chyongchiou J; Quinn, Sandra C; Stebbins, Samuel; Sweeney, Patricia M; Burke, Donald S

    2012-01-01

    Since states' public health systems differ as to pandemic preparedness, this study explored whether such heterogeneity among states could affect the nation's overall influenza rate. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention produced a uniform set of scores on a 100-point scale from its 2008 national evaluation of state preparedness to distribute materiel from the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). This study used these SNS scores to represent each state's relative preparedness to distribute influenza vaccine in a timely manner and assumed that "optimal" vaccine distribution would reach at least 35% of the state's population within 4 weeks. The scores were used to determine the timing of vaccine distribution for each state: each 10-point decrement of score below 90 added an additional delay increment to the distribution time. A large-scale agent-based computational model simulated an influenza pandemic in the US population. In this synthetic population each individual or agent had an assigned household, age, workplace or school destination, daily commute, and domestic intercity air travel patterns. Simulations compared influenza case rates both nationally and at the state level under 3 scenarios: no vaccine distribution (baseline), optimal vaccine distribution in all states, and vaccine distribution time modified according to state-specific SNS score. Between optimal and SNS-modified scenarios, attack rates rose not only in low-scoring states but also in high-scoring states, demonstrating an interstate spread of infections. Influenza rates were sensitive to variation of the SNS-modified scenario (delay increments of 1 day versus 5 days), but the interstate effect remained. The effectiveness of a response activity such as vaccine distribution could benefit from national standards and preparedness funding allocated in part to minimize interstate disparities.

  9. Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baguelin, Marc; Hoek, Albert Jan Van; Jit, Mark; Flasche, Stefan; White, Peter J; Edmunds, W John

    2010-03-11

    Decisions on how to mitigate an evolving pandemic are technically challenging. We present a real-time assessment of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative influenza A/H1N1v vaccination strategies. A transmission dynamic model was fitted to the estimated number of cases in real-time, and used to generate plausible autumn scenarios under different vaccination options. The proportion of these cases by age and risk group leading to primary care consultations, National Pandemic Flu Service consultations, emergency attendances, hospitalisations, intensive care and death was then estimated using existing data from the pandemic. The real-time model suggests that the epidemic will peak in early November, with the peak height being similar in magnitude to the summer wave. Vaccination of the high-risk groups is estimated to prevent about 45 deaths (80% credibility interval 26-67), and save around 2900 QALYs (80% credibility interval 1600-4500). Such a programme is very likely to be cost-effective if the cost of vaccine purchase itself is treated as a sunk cost. Extending vaccination to low-risk individuals is expected to result in more modest gains in deaths and QALYs averted. Extending vaccination to school-age children would be the most cost-effective extension. The early availability of vaccines is crucial in determining the impact of such extensions. There have been a considerable number of cases of H1N1v in England, and so the benefits of vaccination to mitigate the ongoing autumn wave are limited. However, certain groups appear to be at significantly higher risk of complications and deaths, and so it appears both effective and cost-effective to vaccinate them. The United Kingdom was the first country to have a major epidemic in Europe. In countries where the epidemic is not so far advanced vaccination of children may be cost-effective. Similar, detailed, real-time modelling and economic studies could help to clarify the situation.

  10. Natural T Cell-mediated Protection against Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Results of the Flu Watch Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayward, Andrew C; Wang, Lili; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Fragaszy, Ellen B; Bermingham, Alison; Copas, Andrew; Dukes, Oliver; Millett, Elizabeth R C; Nazareth, Irwin; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Watson, John M; Zambon, Maria; Johnson, Anne M; McMichael, Andrew J

    2015-06-15

    A high proportion of influenza infections are asymptomatic. Animal and human challenge studies and observational studies suggest T cells protect against disease among those infected, but the impact of T-cell immunity at the population level is unknown. To investigate whether naturally preexisting T-cell responses targeting highly conserved internal influenza proteins could provide cross-protective immunity against pandemic and seasonal influenza. We quantified influenza A(H3N2) virus-specific T cells in a population cohort during seasonal and pandemic periods between 2006 and 2010. Follow-up included paired serology, symptom reporting, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) investigation of symptomatic cases. A total of 1,414 unvaccinated individuals had baseline T-cell measurements (1,703 participant observation sets). T-cell responses to A(H3N2) virus nucleoprotein (NP) dominated and strongly cross-reacted with A(H1N1)pdm09 NP (P < 0.001) in participants lacking antibody to A(H1N1)pdm09. Comparison of paired preseason and post-season sera (1,431 sets) showed 205 (14%) had evidence of infection based on fourfold influenza antibody titer rises. The presence of NP-specific T cells before exposure to virus correlated with less symptomatic, PCR-positive influenza A (overall adjusted odds ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.68; P = 0.005, during pandemic [P = 0.047] and seasonal [P = 0.049] periods). Protection was independent of baseline antibodies. Influenza-specific T-cell responses were detected in 43%, indicating a substantial population impact. Naturally occurring cross-protective T-cell immunity protects against symptomatic PCR-confirmed disease in those with evidence of infection and helps to explain why many infections do not cause symptoms. Vaccines stimulating T cells may provide important cross-protective immunity.

  11. Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lulla Opatowski

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available While in Northern hemisphere countries, the pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm was introduced outside of the typical influenza season, Southern hemisphere countries experienced a single wave of transmission during their 2009 winter season. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the spread of a single virus in different countries and study the factors influencing its transmission. Here, we estimate and compare transmission characteristics of H1N1pdm for eight Southern hemisphere countries/states: Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa and Victoria (Australia. Weekly incidence of cases and age-distribution of cumulative cases were extracted from public reports of countries' surveillance systems. Estimates of the reproduction numbers, R(0, empirically derived from the country-epidemics' early exponential phase, were positively associated with the proportion of children in the populations (p = 0.004. To explore the role of demography in explaining differences in transmission intensity, we then fitted a dynamic age-structured model of influenza transmission to available incidence data for each country independently, and for all the countries simultaneously. Posterior median estimates of R₀ ranged 1.2-1.8 for the country-specific fits, and 1.29-1.47 for the global fits. Corresponding estimates for overall attack-rate were in the range 20-50%. All model fits indicated a significant decrease in susceptibility to infection with age. These results confirm the transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus was relatively low compared with past pandemics. The pattern of age-dependent susceptibility found confirms that older populations had substantial--though partial--pre-existing immunity, presumably due to exposure to heterologous influenza strains. Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography.

  12. The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Pengyi; Keskinocak, Pinar; Swann, Julie L; Lee, Bruce Y

    2010-12-21

    During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, concerns arose about the potential negative effects of mass public gatherings and travel on the course of the pandemic. Better understanding the potential effects of temporal changes in social mixing patterns could help public officials determine if and when to cancel large public gatherings or enforce regional travel restrictions, advisories, or surveillance during an epidemic. We develop a computer simulation model using detailed data from the state of Georgia to explore how various changes in social mixing and contact patterns, representing mass gatherings and holiday traveling, may affect the course of an influenza pandemic. Various scenarios with different combinations of the length of the mass gatherings or traveling period (range: 0.5 to 5 days), the proportion of the population attending the mass gathering events or on travel (range: 1% to 50%), and the initial reproduction numbers R0 (1.3, 1.5, 1.8) are explored. Mass gatherings that occur within 10 days before the epidemic peak can result in as high as a 10% relative increase in the peak prevalence and the total attack rate, and may have even worse impacts on local communities and travelers' families. Holiday traveling can lead to a second epidemic peak under certain scenarios. Conversely, mass traveling or gatherings may have little effect when occurring much earlier or later than the epidemic peak, e.g., more than 40 days earlier or 20 days later than the peak when the initial R0 = 1.5. Our results suggest that monitoring, postponing, or cancelling large public gatherings may be warranted close to the epidemic peak but not earlier or later during the epidemic. Influenza activity should also be closely monitored for a potential second peak if holiday traveling occurs when prevalence is high.

  13. Oseltamivir for treatment and prevention of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus infection in households, Milwaukee, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miller Joel C

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During an influenza pandemic, a substantial proportion of transmission is thought to occur in households. We used data on influenza progression in individuals and their contacts collected by the City of Milwaukee Health Department (MHD to study the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus in 362 households in Milwaukee, WI, and the effects of oseltamivir treatment and chemoprophylaxis. Methods 135 households had chronological information on symptoms and oseltamivir usage for all household members. The effect of oseltamivir treatment and other factors on the household secondary attack rate was estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with households as the unit of analysis. The effect of oseltamivir treatment and other factors on the individual secondary attack rate was estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with individual household contacts as the unit of analysis, and a generalized estimating equations approach was used to fit the model to allow for clustering within households. Results Oseltamivir index treatment on onset day or the following day (early treatment was associated with a 42% reduction (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.19, 1.73 in the odds of one or more secondary infections in a household and a 50% reduction (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.17, 1.46 in the odds of a secondary infection in individual contacts. The confidence bounds are wide due to a small sample of households with early oseltamivir index usage - in 29 such households, 5 had a secondary attack. Younger household contacts were at higher risk of infection (OR: 2.79, 95% CI: 1.50-5.20. Conclusions Early oseltamivir treatment may be beneficial in preventing H1N1pdm influenza transmission; this may have relevance to future control measures for influenza pandemics. Larger randomized trials are needed to confirm this finding statistically.

  14. Hygiene perception changes during the influenza A H1N1 pandemic in Germany: incorporating the results of two cross-sectional telephone surveys 2008-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meilicke, Gerald; Riedmann, Klaus; Biederbick, Walter; Müller, Ute; Wierer, Traugott; Bartels, Cornelius

    2013-10-16

    The federal campaign Wir gegen Viren [Us against viruses] promoted hygiene in Germany during the influenza A H1N1 pandemic in 2009. The intervention aimed to encourage people to protect themselves against respiratory infections by simple means of hygiene behaviour. Quantitative research was carried out to outline changes in hygiene perception of the population over time, and to find out whether the potential hygiene perception changes were consistent to the federal campaign about hygiene or not. To determine changes in the hygiene perception of the population, two cross-sectional telephone surveys were held, each one with n = 2006 participants. The initial survey was carried out before the influenza A H1N1 pandemic in calendar week 49-51 in 2008 and the second in week 48 in 2009 directly after the peak of the pandemic in Germany. The questionnaire contained indicators about perceived hand hygiene efficacy, preference for coughing into the sleeve, propensity for presenteeism while showing symptoms of a cold and acceptance of hygiene masks. The proportion of people who perceive the efficacy of hand washing as "very good" increased significantly from 50.9% in 2008 to 61.1% in 2009. The proportion of people who perceive coughing into the sleeve as the best way to cough increased even more dramatically from 4.8% in 2008 to 38.3% in 2009. In contrast the propensity for presenteeism decreased significantly: The proportion of people who state that they always report to work while they show symptoms of a cold decreased from 50.8% in 2008 to 40.9% in 2009. Acceptance of hygiene masks has not changed significantly from 2008 to 2009. The results revealed changes in hygiene perception during influenza A H1N1 pandemic in Germany. The changes we found are in accordance with the hygiene recommendations given by the federal campaign Wir gegen Viren [Us against viruses]. Results can constitute a practical benchmark for future research about hygiene perception and hygiene promotion

  15. [Importance of health CRM in pandemics and health alerts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cubillas, Juan José; Ramos, María Isabel; Feito, Francisco R; González, José María; Gersol, Rafael; Ramos, María Belén

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this article is to demonstrate the importance of the role a health CRM can play in a pandemic or health alert. During the influenza-A pandemic, Salud Responde played a very important role. Its main objective was to establish protocols and citizens advice lines that would avoid patients with mild influenza-A symptoms going to health centre. A triage system was developed around the Siebel CRM (software tool) to achieve this objective. This allowed the Salud Responde staff to establish the severity of the patient depending on the symptoms and the risk factors of the patient, as well as being able to inform, give health advice or refer the patient to medical centres if necessary. All patients (a total of 56,497) who were attended by Salud Responde within its influenza-A service portfolio have been included. Patients who were attended by Salud Responde. The data have been extracted from the Salud Responde data base. Salud Responde attended to 56,497 patients during the influenza-A pandemic, of whom 48,287 patients did not require health care. Salud Responde attended to 56,497 patients, of whom 48,287 patients did not require health care. Apart from any financial savings that this could entail, it contributed to minimising the pandemic, avoiding the patient having to go to a health centre to receive medical care or information, and prevented, to a great extent, the flooding of casualty departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Slowing the Next Pandemic: Survey of Community Mitigation Strategies

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    During the next influenza pandemic, it will take time to develop a vaccine and there may be limited medication to treat or prevent illness. To slow the spread of disease, CDC and other public health officials will likely ask Americans to decrease contact with others through altering work schedules, school dismissals and other measures. Researchers recently surveyed the public to see whether people could follow those recommendations and what kind of impact they might have.

  17. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). Results At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to...

  18. Were equatorial regions less affected by the 2009 influenza pandemic? The Brazilian experience.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Schuck-Paim

    Full Text Available Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5(°N to -35(°S by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the

  19. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selim Kilic

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2007; 6(4: 285-290

  20. Intravenous Immunoglobulin Protects Against Severe Pandemic Influenza Infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Rockman

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Influenza is a highly contagious, acute, febrile respiratory infection that can have fatal consequences particularly in individuals with chronic illnesses. Sporadic reports suggest that intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg may be efficacious in the influenza setting. We investigated the potential of human IVIg to ameliorate influenza infection in ferrets exposed to either the pandemic H1N1/09 virus (pH1N1 or highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1. IVIg administered at the time of influenza virus exposure led to a significant reduction in lung viral load following pH1N1 challenge. In the lethal H5N1 model, the majority of animals given IVIg survived challenge in a dose dependent manner. Protection was also afforded by purified F(ab′2 but not Fc fragments derived from IVIg, supporting a specific antibody-mediated mechanism of protection. We conclude that pre-pandemic IVIg can modulate serious influenza infection-associated mortality and morbidity. IVIg could be useful prophylactically in the event of a pandemic to protect vulnerable population groups and in the critical care setting as a first stage intervention.

  1. Modeling emergent border-crossing behaviors during pandemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene; Korah, John; Thompson, Jeremy E.; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keum Joo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh; Zhang, Yuxi; Zhao, Yan

    2013-06-01

    Modeling real-world scenarios is a challenge for traditional social science researchers, as it is often hard to capture the intricacies and dynamisms of real-world situations without making simplistic assumptions. This imposes severe limitations on the capabilities of such models and frameworks. Complex population dynamics during natural disasters such as pandemics is an area where computational social science can provide useful insights and explanations. In this paper, we employ a novel intent-driven modeling paradigm for such real-world scenarios by causally mapping beliefs, goals, and actions of individuals and groups to overall behavior using a probabilistic representation called Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs). To validate our framework we examine emergent behavior occurring near a national border during pandemics, specifically the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. The novelty of the work in this paper lies in representing the dynamism at multiple scales by including both coarse-grained (events at the national level) and finegrained (events at two separate border locations) information. This is especially useful for analysts in disaster management and first responder organizations who need to be able to understand both macro-level behavior and changes in the immediate vicinity, to help with planning, prevention, and mitigation. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework in uncovering previously hidden connections and explanations by comparing independent models of the border locations with their fused model to identify emergent behaviors not found in either independent location models nor in a simple linear combination of those models.

  2. Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ORAU' s Oak Ridge Institute for Science Education (HCTT-CHE)

    2011-04-14

    The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster - readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that - help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. This tool has been reviewed by a variety of key subject matter experts from federal, state, and local agencies and organizations. It also has been piloted with various communities that consist of different population sizes, to include large urban to small rural communities.

  3. Multistate cohort models with proportional transfer rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2006-01-01

    of transfer rates. The two living state case and hierarchical multistate models with any number of living states are analyzed in detail. Applying our approach to 1997 U.S. fertility data, we find that observed rates of parity progression are roughly proportional over age. Our proportional transfer rate...... approach provides trajectories by parity state and facilitates analyses of the implications of changes in parity rate levels and patterns. More women complete childbearing at parity 2 than at any other parity, and parity 2 would be the modal parity in models with total fertility rates (TFRs) of 1.40 to 2......We present a new, broadly applicable approach to summarizing the behavior of a cohort as it moves through a variety of statuses (or states). The approach is based on the assumption that all rates of transfer maintain a constant ratio to one another over age. We present closed-form expressions...

  4. Pulse triggering mechanism of air proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyama, T.; Mori, T.; Watanabe, T.

    1983-01-01

    This paper describes the pulse triggering mechanism of a cylindrical proportional counter filled with air at atmospheric pressure for the incidence of β-rays. Experimental results indicate that primary electrons created distantly from the anode wire by a β-ray are transformed into negative ions, which then detach electrons close to the anode wire and generate electron avalanches thus triggering pulses, while electrons created near the anode wire by a β-ray directly trigger a pulse. Since a negative ion pulse is triggered by a single electron detached from a negative ion, multiple pulses are generated by a large number of ions produced by the incidence of a single β-ray. It is therefore necessary not to count pulses triggered by negative ions but to count those by primary electrons alone when use is made of air proportional counters for the detection of β-rays. (orig.)

  5. Very large area multiwire spectroscopic proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ubertini, P.; Bazzano, A.; Boccaccini, L.; Mastropietro, M.; La Padula, C.D.; Patriarca, R.; Polcaro, V.F.

    1981-01-01

    As a result of a five year development program, a final prototype of a Very Large Area Spectroscopic Proportional Counter (VLASPC), to be employed in space borne payloads, was produced at the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale, Frascati. The instrument is the last version of a new generation of Multiwire Spectroscopic Proportional Counters (MWSPC) succesfully employed in many balloon borne flights, devoted to hard X-ray astronomy. The sensitive area of this standard unit is 2700 cm 2 with an efficiency higher than 10% in the range 15-180 keV (80% at 60 keV). The low cost and weight make this new type of VLASPC competitive with Nal arrays, phoswich and GSPC detectors in terms of achievable scientific results. (orig.)

  6. Very large area multiwire spectroscopic proportional counters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ubertini, P.; Bazzano, A.; Boccaccini, L.; Mastropietro, M.; La Padula, C.D.; Patriarca, R.; Polcaro, V.F. (Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale, Frascati (Italy))

    1981-07-01

    As a result of a five year development program, a final prototype of a Very Large Area Spectroscopic Proportional Counter (VLASPC), to be employed in space borne payloads, was produced at the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale, Frascati. The instrument is the last version of a new generation of Multiwire Spectroscopic Proportional Counters (MWSPC) successfully employed in many balloon borne flights, devoted to hard X-ray astronomy. The sensitive area of this standard unit is 2700 cm/sup 2/ with an efficiency higher than 10% in the range 15-180 keV (80% at 60 keV). The low cost and weight make this new type of VLASPC competitive with Nal arrays, phoswich and GSPC detectors in terms of achievable scientific results.

  7. Cylindrical geometry for proportional and drift chambers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadoulet, B.

    1975-06-01

    For experiments performed around storage rings such as e + e - rings or the ISR pp rings, cylindrical wire chambers are very attractive. They surround the beam pipe completely without any dead region in the azimuth, and fit well with the geometry of events where particles are more or less spherically produced. Unfortunately, cylindrical proportional or drift chambers are difficult to make. Problems are discussed and two approaches to fabricating the cathodes are discussed. (WHK)

  8. 2 π gaseous flux proportional detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guevara, E.A.; Costello, E.D.; Di Carlo, R.O.

    1986-01-01

    A counting system has been developed in order to measure carbon-14 samples obtained in the course of a study of a plasmapheresis treatment for diabetic children. The system is based on the use of a 2π gaseous flux proportional detector especially designed for the stated purpose. The detector is described and experiment results are given, determining the characteristic parameters which set up the working conditions. (Author) [es

  9. General methods for analyzing bounded proportion data

    OpenAIRE

    Hossain, Abu

    2017-01-01

    This thesis introduces two general classes of models for analyzing proportion response variable when the response variable Y can take values between zero and one, inclusive of zero and/or one. The models are inflated GAMLSS model and generalized Tobit GAMLSS model. The inflated GAMLSS model extends the flexibility of beta inflated models by allowing the distribution on (0,1) of the continuous component of the dependent variable to come from any explicit or transformed (i.e. logit or truncated...

  10. Commanding to 'Nudge' via the Proportionality Principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Purnhagen, Kai; van Kleef, Ellen

    2017-01-01

    textabstractThis piece assesses whether nudging techniques can be argued to be a less restrictive but equally effective way to regulate diets in EU law. It has been argued that nudging techniques, due to their freedom-preserving nature, might influence the proportionality test in such a way that authorities need to give preference to nudging techniques over content-related or information regulation. We will illustrate on the example of EU food law how behavioural sciences have first altered t...

  11. La Grippe and World War I: conflict participation and pandemic confrontation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, B J; Collins, C D

    2009-01-01

    This paper assesses whether a nation-state's participation in conflict influences its ability to confront global pandemic or disease. Two alternative hypotheses are proposed. First, increased levels of conflict participation lead to increased abilities of states to confront pandemics. A second and alternative hypothesis is that increased conflict participation decreases the ability of states to confront pandemics. The hypotheses are tested through the ultimate case of war and pandemic: the 1918 Influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu or 'La Grippe') that killed 20-100 million people worldwide. Using simple correlation and case illustrations, we test these hypotheses with special focus upon the ability of the participant countries to confront the pandemic. The findings suggest, in a limited and varied fashion, that while neutral countries enjoyed the lowest levels of pandemic deaths, of the participant countries greater levels of conflict participation correlate with lower levels of pandemic deaths. The paper concludes with some propositions regarding the relationship between the current 'war on terror' and prospective pandemics such as avian flu.

  12. Contingency proportion systematically influences contingency learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrin, Noah D; MacLeod, Colin M

    2018-01-01

    In the color-word contingency learning paradigm, each word appears more often in one color (high contingency) than in the other colors (low contingency). Shortly after beginning the task, color identification responses become faster on the high-contingency trials than on the low-contingency trials-the contingency learning effect. Across five groups, we varied the high-contingency proportion in 10% steps, from 80% to 40%. The size of the contingency learning effect was positively related to high-contingency proportion, with the effect disappearing when high contingency was reduced to 40%. At the two highest contingency proportions, the magnitude of the effect increased over trials, the pattern suggesting that there was an increasing cost for the low-contingency trials rather than an increasing benefit for the high-contingency trials. Overall, the results fit a modified version of Schmidt's (2013, Acta Psychologica, 142, 119-126) parallel episodic processing account in which prior trial instances are routinely retrieved from memory and influence current trial performance.

  13. Household transmission of influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itziar Casado

    Full Text Available The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.During the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14-19% presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009-2010 and 19% in the 2010-2011 season (p=0.049, an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010-2011 season than in the 2009-2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17-2.54, and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08-1.03.The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.

  14. Whole Genome Characterization, Phylogenetic and Genome Signature Analysis of Human Pandemic H1N1 Virus in Thailand, 2009–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makkoch, Jarika; Suwannakarn, Kamol; Payungporn, Sunchai; Prachayangprecha, Slinporn; Cheiocharnsin, Thaweesak; Linsuwanon, Piyada; Theamboonlers, Apiradee; Poovorawan, Yong

    2012-01-01

    Background Three waves of human pandemic influenza occurred in Thailand in 2009–2012. The genome signature features and evolution of pH1N1 need to be characterized to elucidate the aspects responsible for the multiple waves of pandemic. Methodology/Findings Forty whole genome sequences and 584 partial sequences of pH1N1 circulating in Thailand, divided into 1st, 2nd and 3rd wave and post-pandemic were characterized and 77 genome signatures were analyzed. Phylogenetic trees of concatenated whole genome and HA gene sequences were constructed calculating substitution rate and dN/dS of each gene. Phylogenetic analysis showed a distinct pattern of pH1N1 circulation in Thailand, with the first two isolates from May, 2009 belonging to clade 5 while clades 5, 6 and 7 co-circulated during the first wave of pH1N1 pandemic in Thailand. Clade 8 predominated during the second wave and different proportions of the pH1N1 viruses circulating during the third wave and post pandemic period belonged to clades 8, 11.1 and 11.2. The mutation analysis of pH1N1 revealed many adaptive mutations which have become the signature of each clade and may be responsible for the multiple pandemic waves in Thailand, especially with regard to clades 11.1 and 11.2 as evidenced with V731I, G154D of PB1 gene, PA I330V, HA A214T S160G and S202T. The substitution rate of pH1N1 in Thailand ranged from 2.53×10−3±0.02 (M2 genes) to 5.27×10−3±0.03 per site per year (NA gene). Conclusions All results suggested that this virus is still adaptive, maybe to evade the host's immune response and tends to remain in the human host although the dN/dS were under purifying selection in all 8 genes. Due to the gradual evolution of pH1N1 in Thailand, continuous monitoring is essential for evaluation and surveillance to be prepared for and able to control future influenza activities. PMID:23251479

  15. Reaching for the red planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, L

    1996-05-01

    The distant shores of Mars were reached by numerous U.S. and Russian spacecraft throughout the 1960s to mid 1970s. Nearly 20 years have passed since those successful missions which orbited and landed on the Martian surface. Two Soviet probes headed for the planet in July, 1988, but later failed. In August 1993, the U.S. Mars Observer suddenly went silent just three days before it was to enter orbit around the planet and was never heard from again. In late 1996, there will be renewed activity on the launch pads with three probes departing for the red planet: 1) The U.S. Mars Global Surveyor will be launched in November on a Delta II rocket and will orbit the planet for global mapping purposes; 2) Russia's Mars '96 mission, scheduled to fly in November on a Proton launcher, consists of an orbiter, two small stations which will land on the Martian surface, and two penetrators that will plow into the terrain; and finally, 3) a U.S. Discovery-class spacecraft, the Mars Pathfinder, has a December launch date atop a Delta II booster. The mission features a lander and a microrover that will travel short distances over Martian territory. These missions usher in a new phase of Mars exploration, setting the stage for an unprecedented volley of spacecraft that will orbit around, land on, drive across, and perhaps fly at low altitudes over the planet.

  16. Metasurface holograms reaching 80% efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Guoxing; Mühlenbernd, Holger; Kenney, Mitchell; Li, Guixin; Zentgraf, Thomas; Zhang, Shuang

    2015-04-01

    Surfaces covered by ultrathin plasmonic structures--so-called metasurfaces--have recently been shown to be capable of completely controlling the phase of light, representing a new paradigm for the design of innovative optical elements such as ultrathin flat lenses, directional couplers for surface plasmon polaritons and wave plate vortex beam generation. Among the various types of metasurfaces, geometric metasurfaces, which consist of an array of plasmonic nanorods with spatially varying orientations, have shown superior phase control due to the geometric nature of their phase profile. Metasurfaces have recently been used to make computer-generated holograms, but the hologram efficiency remained too low at visible wavelengths for practical purposes. Here, we report the design and realization of a geometric metasurface hologram reaching diffraction efficiencies of 80% at 825 nm and a broad bandwidth between 630 nm and 1,050 nm. The 16-level-phase computer-generated hologram demonstrated here combines the advantages of a geometric metasurface for the superior control of the phase profile and of reflectarrays for achieving high polarization conversion efficiency. Specifically, the design of the hologram integrates a ground metal plane with a geometric metasurface that enhances the conversion efficiency between the two circular polarization states, leading to high diffraction efficiency without complicating the fabrication process. Because of these advantages, our strategy could be viable for various practical holographic applications.

  17. Effectiveness of non-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A vaccines for preventing pandemic influenza acute respiratory illness visits in 4 U.S. communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie R Griffin

    Full Text Available We estimated the effectiveness of four monovalent pandemic influenza A (H1N1 vaccines (three unadjuvanted inactivated, one live attenuated available in the U.S. during the pandemic. Patients with acute respiratory illness presenting to inpatient and outpatient facilities affiliated with four collaborating institutions were prospectively recruited, consented, and tested for influenza. Analyses were restricted to October 2009 through April 2010, when pandemic vaccine was available. Patients testing positive for pandemic influenza by real-time RT-PCR were cases; those testing negative were controls. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated in logistic regression models adjusted for study community, patient age, timing of illness, insurance status, enrollment site, and presence of high-risk medical conditions. Pandemic virus was detected in 1,011 (15% of 6,757 enrolled patients. Fifteen (1% of 1,011 influenza positive cases and 1,042 (18% of 5,746 test-negative controls had record-verified pandemic vaccination >14 days prior to illness onset. Adjusted effectiveness (95% confidence interval for pandemic vaccines combined was 56% (23%, 75%. Adjusted effectiveness for inactivated vaccines alone (79% of total was 62% (25%, 81% overall and 32% (-92%, 76%, 89% (15%, 99%, and -6% (-231%, 66% in those aged 0.5 to 9, 10 to 49, and 50+ years, respectively. Effectiveness for the live attenuated vaccine in those aged 2 to 49 years was only demonstrated if vaccination >7 rather than >14 days prior to illness onset was considered (61%∶ 12%, 82%. Inactivated non-adjuvanted pandemic vaccines offered significant protection against confirmed pandemic influenza-associated medical care visits in young adults.

  18. Using Facebook to Reach People Who Experience Auditory Hallucinations

    OpenAIRE

    Crosier, Benjamin Sage; Brian, Rachel Marie; Ben-Zeev, Dror

    2016-01-01

    Background Auditory hallucinations (eg, hearing voices) are relatively common and underreported false sensory experiences that may produce distress and impairment. A large proportion of those who experience auditory hallucinations go unidentified and untreated. Traditional engagement methods oftentimes fall short in reaching the diverse population of people who experience auditory hallucinations. Objective The objective of this proof-of-concept study was to examine the viability of leveraging...

  19. Designing an optimally proportional inorganic scintillator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Jai, E-mail: jai.singh@cdu.edu.au [School of Engineering and IT, B-Purple-12, Faculty of EHSE, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909 (Australia); Koblov, Alexander [School of Engineering and IT, B-Purple-12, Faculty of EHSE, Charles Darwin University, NT 0909 (Australia)

    2012-09-01

    The nonproportionality observed in the light yield of inorganic scintillators is studied theoretically as a function of the rates of bimolecular and Auger quenching processes occurring within the electron track initiated by a gamma- or X-ray photon incident on a scintillator. Assuming a cylindrical track, the influence of the track radius and concentration of excitations created within the track on the scintillator light yield is also studied. Analysing the calculated light yield a guideline for inventing an optimally proportional scintillator with optimal energy resolution is presented.

  20. Designing an optimally proportional inorganic scintillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Jai; Koblov, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The nonproportionality observed in the light yield of inorganic scintillators is studied theoretically as a function of the rates of bimolecular and Auger quenching processes occurring within the electron track initiated by a gamma- or X-ray photon incident on a scintillator. Assuming a cylindrical track, the influence of the track radius and concentration of excitations created within the track on the scintillator light yield is also studied. Analysing the calculated light yield a guideline for inventing an optimally proportional scintillator with optimal energy resolution is presented.

  1. Rate dependent image distortions in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trow, M.W.; Bento, A.C.; Smith, A.

    1994-01-01

    The positional linearity of imaging proportional counters is affected by the intensity distribution of the incident radiation. A mechanism for this effect is described, in which drifting positive ions in the gas produce a distorting electric field which perturbs the trajectories of the primary electrons. In certain cases, the phenomenon causes an apparent improvement of the position resolution. We demonstrate the effect in a detector filled with a xenon-argon-CO 2 mixture. The images obtained are compared with the results of a simulation. If quantitative predictions for a particular detector are required, accurate values of the absolute detector gain, ion mobility and electron drift velocity are needed. ((orig.))

  2. Hydrogen high pressure proportional drift detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arefiev, A.; Balaev, A.

    1983-01-01

    The design and operation performances of a proportional drift detector PDD are described. High sensitivity of the applied PAD makes it possible to detect the neutron-proton elastic scattering in the energy range of recoil protons as low as 1 keV. The PDD is filled with hydrogen up to the pressure at 40 bars. High purity of the gas is maintained by a continuously operating purification system. The detector has been operating for several years in a neutron beam at the North Area of the CERN SPS

  3. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Rochelle E; Cooke, Feonagh C; Donovan, Robert J; MacIntyre, C Raina; Itzwerth, Ralf; Plant, Aileen J

    2007-07-17

    Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium businesses should emphasise the severity of the consequences to their

  4. Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacIntyre C Raina

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Methods Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Results Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Conclusion Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium

  5. Vaccination strategies for future influenza pandemics: a severity-based cost effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, Joel K; Halder, Nilimesh; Milne, George J

    2013-02-11

    A critical issue in planning pandemic influenza mitigation strategies is the delay between the arrival of the pandemic in a community and the availability of an effective vaccine. The likely scenario, born out in the 2009 pandemic, is that a newly emerged influenza pandemic will have spread to most parts of the world before a vaccine matched to the pandemic strain is produced. For a severe pandemic, additional rapidly activated intervention measures will be required if high mortality rates are to be avoided. A simulation modelling study was conducted to examine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of plausible combinations of social distancing, antiviral and vaccination interventions, assuming a delay of 6-months between arrival of an influenza pandemic and first availability of a vaccine. Three different pandemic scenarios were examined; mild, moderate and extreme, based on estimates of transmissibility and pathogenicity of the 2009, 1957 and 1918 influenza pandemics respectively. A range of different durations of social distancing were examined, and the sensitivity of the results to variation in the vaccination delay, ranging from 2 to 6 months, was analysed. Vaccination-only strategies were not cost effective for any pandemic scenario, saving few lives and incurring substantial vaccination costs. Vaccination coupled with long duration social distancing, antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis was cost effective for moderate pandemics and extreme pandemics, where it saved lives while simultaneously reducing the total pandemic cost. Combined social distancing and antiviral interventions without vaccination were significantly less effective, since without vaccination a resurgence in case numbers occurred as soon as social distancing interventions were relaxed. When social distancing interventions were continued until at least the start of the vaccination campaign, attack rates and total costs were significantly lower, and increased rates of vaccination

  6. Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Among Child Care Center Directors in 2008 and 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, Timothy R; Walker, Benjamin H; Aird, Laura D; Southward, Linda; McCown, John S; Martin, Judith M

    2017-06-01

    Children in child care centers represent an important population to consider in attempts to mitigate the spread of an influenza pandemic. This national survey, conducted in 2008 and 2016, assessed directors' reports of their child care centers' pandemic influenza preparation before and after the 2009 H1N1 novel influenza pandemic. This was a telephone-based survey of child care center directors randomly selected from a national database of licensed US child care centers who were queried about their preparedness for pandemic influenza. We grouped conceptually related items in 6 domains into indexes: general infection control, communication, seasonal influenza control, use of health consultants, quality of child care, and perceived barriers. These indexes, along with other center and director characteristics, were used to predict pandemic influenza preparedness. Among 1500 and 518 child care center directors surveyed in 2008 and 2016, respectively, preparation for pandemic influenza was low and did not improve. Only 7% of directors had taken concrete actions to prepare their centers. Having served as a center director during the 2009 influenza pandemic did not influence preparedness. After adjusting for covariates, child care health consultation and years of director's experience were positively associated with pandemic influenza preparation, whereas experiencing perceived barriers such as lack of knowing what to do in the event of pandemic influenza, was negatively associated with pandemic influenza preparedness. Pandemic influenza preparedness of child care center's directors needs to improve. Child care health consultants are likely to be important collaborators in addressing this problem. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  7. Measuring the potential of individual airports for pandemic spread over the world airline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawyer, Glenn

    2016-02-09

    Massive growth in human mobility has dramatically increased the risk and rate of pandemic spread. Macro-level descriptors of the topology of the World Airline Network (WAN) explains middle and late stage dynamics of pandemic spread mediated by this network, but necessarily regard early stage variation as stochastic. We propose that much of this early stage variation can be explained by appropriately characterizing the local network topology surrounding an outbreak's debut location. Based on a model of the WAN derived from public data, we measure for each airport the expected force of infection (AEF) which a pandemic originating at that airport would generate, assuming an epidemic process which transmits from airport to airport via scheduled commercial flights. We observe, for a subset of world airports, the minimum transmission rate at which a disease becomes pandemically competent at each airport. We also observe, for a larger subset, the time until a pandemically competent outbreak achieves pandemic status given its debut location. Observations are generated using a highly sophisticated metapopulation reaction-diffusion simulator under a disease model known to well replicate the 2009 influenza pandemic. The robustness of the AEF measure to model misspecification is examined by degrading the underlying model WAN. AEF powerfully explains pandemic risk, showing correlation of 0.90 to the transmission level needed to give a disease pandemic competence, and correlation of 0.85 to the delay until an outbreak becomes a pandemic. The AEF is robust to model misspecification. For 97 % of airports, removing 15 % of airports from the model changes their AEF metric by less than 1 %. Appropriately summarizing the size, shape, and diversity of an airport's local neighborhood in the WAN accurately explains much of the macro-level stochasticity in pandemic outcomes.

  8. Responding to the Pandemic of Falsified Medicines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayyar, Gaurvika M. L.; Attaran, Amir; Clark, John P.; Culzoni, M. Julia; Fernandez, Facundo M.; Herrington, James E.; Kendall, Megan; Newton, Paul N.; Breman, Joel G.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past decade, the number of countries reporting falsified (fake, spurious/falsely labeled/counterfeit) medicines and the types and quantities of fraudulent drugs being distributed have increased greatly. The obstacles in combating falsified pharmaceuticals include 1) lack of consensus on definitions, 2) paucity of reliable and scalable technology to detect fakes before they reach patients, 3) poor global and national leadership and accountability systems for combating this scourge, and 4) deficient manufacturing and regulatory challenges, especially in China and India where fake products often originate. The major needs to improve the quality of the world's medicines fall into three main areas: 1) research to develop and compare accurate and affordable tools to identify high-quality drugs at all levels of distribution; 2) an international convention and national legislation to facilitate production and utilization of high-quality drugs and protect all countries from the criminal and the negligent who make, distribute, and sell life-threatening products; and 3) a highly qualified, well-supported international science and public health organization that will establish standards, drug-quality surveillance, and training programs like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Such leadership would give authoritative guidance for countries in cooperation with national medical regulatory agencies, pharmaceutical companies, and international agencies, all of which have an urgent interest and investment in ensuring that patients throughout the world have access to good quality medicines. The organization would also advocate strongly for including targets for achieving good quality medicines in the United Nations Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. PMID:25897060

  9. Viking-Age Sails: Form and Proportion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischoff, Vibeke

    2017-04-01

    Archaeological ship-finds have shed much light on the design and construction of vessels from the Viking Age. However, the exact proportions of their sails remain unknown due to the lack of fully preserved sails, or other definite indicators of their proportions. Key Viking-Age ship-finds from Scandinavia—the Oseberg Ship, the Gokstad Ship and Skuldelev 3—have all revealed traces of rigging. In all three finds, the keelson—with the mast position—is preserved, together with fastenings for the sheets and the tack, indicating the breadth of the sail. The sail area can then be estimated based on practical experience of how large a sail the specific ship can carry, in conjunction with hull form and displacement. This article presents reconstructions of the form and dimensions of rigging and sail based on the archaeological finds, evidence from iconographic and written sources, and ethnographic parallels with traditional Nordic boats. When these sources are analysed, not only do the similarities become apparent, but so too does the relative disparity between the archaeological record and the other sources. Preferential selection in terms of which source is given the greatest merit is therefore required, as it is not possible to afford them all equal value.

  10. Amplifier Design for Proportional Ionization Chambers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W. H.

    1950-08-24

    This paper presents the requirements of a nuclear amplifier of short resolving time, designed to accept pulses of widely varying amplitudes. Data are given which show that a proportional ionization chamber loaded with a 1,000-ohm resistor develops pulses of 0.5 microsecond duration and several volts amplitude. Results indicate that seven basic requirements are imposed on the amplifier when counting soft beta and gamma radiation in the presence of alpha particles, without absorbers. It should, (1) have a fast recovery time, (2) have a relatively good low frequency response, (3) accept pulses of widely varying heights without developing spurious pulsed, (4) have a limiting output stage, (5) preserve the inherently short rise time of the chamber, (6) minimize pulse integration, and (7) have sufficient gain to detect the weak pulses well below the chamber voltage at which continuous discharge takes place. The results obtained with an amplifier which meets these requirements is described. A formula is derived which indicates that redesign of the proportional ionization chamber might eliminate the need for an amplifier. This may be possible if the radioactive particles are collimated parallel to the collecting electrode.

  11. Divine proportions in attractive and nonattractive faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancherz, Hans; Knapp, Verena; Erbe, Christina; Heiss, Anja Melina

    2010-01-01

    To test Ricketts' 1982 hypothesis that facial beauty is measurable by comparing attractive and nonattractive faces of females and males with respect to the presence of the divine proportions. The analysis of frontal view facial photos of 90 cover models (50 females, 40 males) from famous fashion magazines and of 34 attractive (29 females, five males) and 34 nonattractive (13 females, 21 males) persons selected from a group of former orthodontic patients was carried out in this study. Based on Ricketts' method, five transverse and seven vertical facial reference distances were measured and compared with the corresponding calculated divine distances expressed in phi-relationships (f=1.618). Furthermore, transverse and vertical facial disproportion indices were created. For both the models and patients, all the reference distances varied largely from respective divine values. The average deviations ranged from 0.3% to 7.8% in the female groups of models and attractive patients with no difference between them. In the male groups of models and attractive patients, the average deviations ranged from 0.2% to 11.2%. When comparing attractive and nonattractive female, as well as male, patients, deviations from the divine values for all variables were larger in the nonattractive sample. Attractive individuals have facial proportions closer to the divine values than nonattractive ones. In accordance with the hypothesis of Ricketts, facial beauty is measurable to some degree. COPYRIGHT © 2009 BY QUINTESSENCE PUBLISHING CO, INC.

  12. Kalman-predictive-proportional-integral-derivative (KPPID)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fluerasu, A.; Sutton, M.

    2004-01-01

    With third generation synchrotron X-ray sources, it is possible to acquire detailed structural information about the system under study with time resolution orders of magnitude faster than was possible a few years ago. These advances have generated many new challenges for changing and controlling the state of the system on very short time scales, in a uniform and controlled manner. For our particular X-ray experiments on crystallization or order-disorder phase transitions in metallic alloys, we need to change the sample temperature by hundreds of degrees as fast as possible while avoiding over or under shooting. To achieve this, we designed and implemented a computer-controlled temperature tracking system which combines standard Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) feedback, thermal modeling and finite difference thermal calculations (feedforward), and Kalman filtering of the temperature readings in order to reduce the noise. The resulting Kalman-Predictive-Proportional-Integral-Derivative (KPPID) algorithm allows us to obtain accurate control, to minimize the response time and to avoid over/under shooting, even in systems with inherently noisy temperature readings and time delays. The KPPID temperature controller was successfully implemented at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratories and was used to perform coherent and time-resolved X-ray diffraction experiments.

  13. Proportional-Integral-Resonant AC Current Controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STOJIC, D.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an improved stationary-frame AC current controller based on the proportional-integral-resonant control action (PIR is proposed. Namely, the novel two-parameter PIR controller is applied in the stationary-frame AC current control, accompanied by the corresponding parameter-tuning procedure. In this way, the proportional-resonant (PR controller, common in the stationary-frame AC current control, is extended by the integral (I action in order to enable the AC current DC component tracking, and, also, to enable the DC disturbance compensation, caused by the voltage source inverter (VSI nonidealities and by nonlinear loads. The proposed controller parameter-tuning procedure is based on the three-phase back-EMF-type load, which corresponds to a wide range of AC power converter applications, such as AC motor drives, uninterruptible power supplies, and active filters. While the PIR controllers commonly have three parameters, the novel controller has two. Also, the provided parameter-tuning procedure needs only one parameter to be tuned in relation to the load and power converter model parameters, since the second controller parameter is directly derived from the required controller bandwidth value. The dynamic performance of the proposed controller is verified by means of simulation and experimental runs.

  14. Economic evaluation of the vaccination program against seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza among customs officers in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamma, Maria; Spandidos, Demetrios A

    2013-01-01

    Health policies from many countries recommend influenza vaccination of "high-priority" professional groups, including customs officers. Our aim was to estimate the economic impact of the vaccination program against influenza among customs officers in Greece during the 2009/2010 period. We developed a decision analytical computational simulation model including dynamic transmission elements that estimated the economic impact of various scenarios with different attack rates, symptomatic percentages and vaccination participation among customs officers. We also assessed in real-time the economic impact of the national 2009/2010 campaign against seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza. Implementing a seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza vaccination program among customs officers in Greece with a participation rate of 30%, influenza vaccination was not cost-saving in any of the studied influenza scenarios. When the participation rate reached 100%, the program was cost-saving, when the influenza attack rate was 30% and the symptomatic rate 65%. The real-time estimated mean net cost-benefit value in 2009/2010 period was -7.3 euros/custom officer. With different clinical scenarios, providing a vaccination program against seasonal and pandemic A/H1N1 influenza can incur a substantial net benefit for customs offices. However, the size of the benefit strongly depends upon the attack rate of influenza, the symptomatic rate as well as the participation rate of the customs officers in the program. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. US school/academic institution disaster and pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebmann, Terri; Elliott, Michael B; Reddick, Dave; D Swick, Zachary

    2012-09-01

    School pandemic preparedness is essential, but has not been evaluated. An online survey was sent to school nurses (from state school nurse associations and/or state departments of education) between May and July 2011. Overall school pandemic preparedness scores were calculated by assigning 1 point for each item in the school's pandemic plan; the maximum score was 11. Linear regression was used to describe factors associated with higher school pandemic preparedness scores. Nurse influenza vaccine uptake was assessed as well. A total of 1,997 nurses from 26 states completed the survey. Almost three-quarters (73.7%; n = 1,472) reported receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2010-11 season. Very few (2.2%; n = 43) reported that their school/district had a mandatory influenza vaccination policy. Pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0 to 10 points, with an average score of 4.3. Determinants of school pandemic preparedness were as follows: planning to be a point of dispensing during a future pandemic (P nurse complete the survey (P school nurse study participant be a member of the school disaster planning committee (P schools must continue to address gaps in pandemic planning. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Transmission of Hemagglutinin D222G Mutant Strain of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facchini, Marzia; Spagnolo, Domenico; De Marco, Maria A.; Calzoletti, Laura; Zanetti, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Roberto; Tanzi, Maria L.; Cassone, Antonio; Rezza, Giovanni; Donatelli, Isabella

    2010-01-01

    A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus strain carrying the D222G mutation was identified in a severely ill man and was transmitted to a household contact. Only mild illness developed in the contact, despite his obesity and diabetes. The isolated virus reacted fully with an antiserum against the pandemic vaccine strain. PMID:20409386

  17. Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoldascan, Elcin; Kurtaran, Behice; Koyuncu, Melik; Koyuncu, Esra

    2010-04-01

    Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.

  18. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Bal Ram; Shakya, Geeta; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Prakash Kc, Khagendra; Shrestha, Sirjana Devi; Dhungana, Guna Raj

    2011-03-23

    The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3%) were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3%) were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53%) were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type. The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type.

  19. Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C; Daszak, Peter

    2014-12-30

    Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral "One Health" pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual.

  20. Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R.; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop. PMID:27929449

  1. Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C.; Daszak, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral “One Health” pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual. PMID:25512538

  2. Resilience Training for Hospital Workers in Anticipation of an Influenza Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiello, Andria; Khayeri, Michelle Young-Eun; Raja, Shreyshree; Peladeau, Nathalie; Romano, Donna; Leszcz, Molyn; Maunder, Robert G.; Rose, Marci; Adam, Mary Anne; Pain, Clare; Moore, Andrea; Savage, Diane; Schulman, Rabbi Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Background: Well before the H1N1 influenza, health care organizations worldwide prepared for a pandemic of unpredictable impact. Planners anticipated the possibility of a pandemic involving high mortality, high health care demands, rates of absenteeism rising up to 20-30% among health care workers, rationing of health care, and extraordinary…

  3. How integration of global omics-data could help preparing for pandemics - a scent of influenza

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Lieuwe D. J.; de Jong, Menno D.; Sterk, Peter J.; Schultz, Marcus J.

    2014-01-01

    Pandemics caused by novel emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases could lead to high mortality and morbidity world-wide when left uncontrolled. In this perspective, we evaluate the possibility of integration of global omics-data in order to timely prepare for pandemics. Such an approach requires

  4. Safety of pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children and adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G. Wijnans (Leonoor); S. de Bie (Sandra); J.P. Dieleman (Jeanne); J. Bonhoeffer (Jan); M.C.J.M. Sturkenboom (Miriam)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractDuring the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic several pandemic H1N1 vaccines were licensed using fast track procedures, with relatively limited data on the safety in children and adolescents. Different extensive safety monitoring efforts were put in place to ensure timely detection of

  5. Hospitalizations for Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among Maori and Pacific Islanders, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrall, Ayesha; Norton, Katherine; Rooker, Serena; Dee, Stephen; Olsen, Leeanne; Tan, Chor Ee; Paull, Sharon; Allen, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Community transmission of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was followed by high rates of hospital admissions in the Wellington region of New Zealand, particularly among Maori and Pacific Islanders. These findings may help health authorities anticipate the effects of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in other communities. PMID:20031050

  6. Data for decision making: strategic information tools for hospital management during a pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farias, Daniel R; Raffo, Lucrecia; Bacigalupo, Silvia; Cremaschi, Maria; Vence, Liliana; Ramos, Susana; Salguero, Ana; Claudio, Martin; Meites, Elissa; Cubito, Alejandro

    2010-10-01

    During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Argentina's Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas, a referral center in the capital province of Buenos Aires, treated a large urban patient population. Beginning in April, after severe influenza had been reported in North America but before any suspected cases of H1N1 had been reported in Argentina, the authors formed a pandemic planning committee to direct our hospital's response. An important strategy of the management team was to create a single daily monitoring tool that could integrate multiple information sources. We describe our pandemic planning strategy so that it may serve as a template for other hospitals. We describe our integrated data management system and the indicators it measured. We also describe the iterative process used to develop these tools and the current versions we use in surveillance for possible new waves of pandemic influenza. We present 3 examples of strategic decision making applied to data from our integrated information system. Daily pandemic surveillance data motivated the planning committee to reallocate hospital resources to care for patients during the peak pandemic period. This report illustrates the importance of pandemic planning and advanced integrated information tools for management of a health care facility during a pandemic.

  7. Age as Risk Factor for Death from Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dabanch, Jeannette; Nájera, Manuel; González, Claudia; Guerrero, Andrea; Olea, Andrea; Fasce, Rodrigo; Morales, Cecilia; Vega, Jeanette

    2011-01-01

    Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 affected Chile during the winter of 2009. The hospitalization rate was 0.56% overall and 3.47% for persons >60 years of age at risk for severe disease and death independent of concurrent conditions. Age >60 years was the major risk factor for death from pandemic (H1N1) 2009. PMID:21762580

  8. Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrestha Sirjana

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Results Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6% were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3% were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3% were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53% were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type. Conclusion The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1v type.

  9. [Risk communication during health crises: results of a cross-sectional study to evaluate the effectiveness of adopted corporate communication strategies during the H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy and on the training needs of health professionals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Giusti, Maria; Mannocci, Alice; Miccoli, Silvia; Palazzo, Caterina; Di Thiene, Domitilla; Scalmato, Valeria; Ursillo, Paolo; Monteduro, Maria Antonietta; Turri, Alberto; Mazzoli, Pier Giovanni; Boccia, Antonio; La Torre, Giuseppe

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness of corporate communication activities carried out during the A(H1N1) pandemic influenza in Italy and to identify educational needs of health professionals with regards to crisis communication. The study compared two samples representing respectively the general population and health professionals, living in different regions of northern, central and southern Italy. A self-administered questionnaire was used, with questions on knowledge about preventive measures during a pandemic and on satisfaction with the adopted communication campaigns. Study results highlight that both samples had very little knowledge of appropriate preventive behaviors to be adopted during a pandemic. The sample of health professionals received a greater amount of information about the pandemic with respect to the general population and showed a strong interest toward the problem of receiving adequate training in risk communication. The degree of knowledge about preventive measures is directly proportional to the existence of institutional communication activities and to having consulted a health professional.

  10. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. Van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.; Teams, G.L.C.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  11. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 influenza pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: a modeling study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simonsen, L.; Spreeuwenberg, P.; Lustig, R.; Taylor, R.J.; Fleming, D.M.; Kroneman, M.; Kerkhove, M.D. van; Mounts, A.W.; Paget, W.J.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was

  12. Simplifying influenza vaccination during pandemics : sublingual priming and intramuscular boosting of immune responses with heterologous whole inactivated influenza vaccine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Murugappan, Senthil; Patil, Harshad P; Frijlink, Henderik W; Huckriede, Anke; Hinrichs, Wouter L J

    2014-01-01

    The best approach to control the spread of influenza virus during a pandemic is vaccination. Yet, an appropriate vaccine is not available early in the pandemic since vaccine production is time consuming. For influenza strains with a high pandemic potential like H5N1, stockpiling of vaccines has been

  13. BCE selector valves and flow proportional sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rippy, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    This Acceptance Test Procedure (ATP) has been prepared to demonstrate that the Electrical/Instrumentation systems for the B-Plant Process Condensate Treatment Facility (BCE) function as required by project criteria. Tests will be run to: Verify the operation of the solenoid valve and associated limit switches installed for the BCE portion of W-007H; Operate the solenoid valve and verify the proper operation of the associated limit switches based on the position of the solenoid valve;and, Demonstrate the integrity of the Sample Failure Alarm Relay XFA-211BA-BCE-1, and Power Failure ALarm Relay JFA-211BA-BCE-1 located inside the Flow Proportional Sampler in Building 211 BA

  14. Absolute calibration of TFTR helium proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strachan, J.D.; Diesso, M.; Jassby, D.; Johnson, L.; McCauley, S.; Munsat, T.; Roquemore, A.L.; Loughlin, M.

    1995-06-01

    The TFTR helium proportional counters are located in the central five (5) channels of the TFTR multichannel neutron collimator. These detectors were absolutely calibrated using a 14 MeV neutron generator positioned at the horizontal midplane of the TFTR vacuum vessel. The neutron generator position was scanned in centimeter steps to determine the collimator aperture width to 14 MeV neutrons and the absolute sensitivity of each channel. Neutron profiles were measured for TFTR plasmas with time resolution between 5 msec and 50 msec depending upon count rates. The He detectors were used to measure the burnup of 1 MeV tritons in deuterium plasmas, the transport of tritium in trace tritium experiments, and the residual tritium levels in plasmas following 50:50 DT experiments

  15. CWRU multiwire proportional counter readout system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bevington, P.R.; Leskovec, R.A.

    1977-01-01

    An electronic system is described which translates pulses from individual wires of multiwire proportional counters into binary addresses indicating the location of the wires in the chambers. The system combines a fast (<100 ns) serial scan of an event buffer with parallel encoding to provide fast transfer of addresses (250 ns per hit). The buffer has provision for disabling the input less than 40 ns after detection of an event to suppress recording of multiple hits caused by individual events. The encoder can digitize the address of every hit encountered or just the first addresses of contiguous hits. The system includes a coincidence trigger for determining whether timing criteria have been satisfied between chambers and with external devices. Events which do not meet the coincidence criteria are typically reset within 400 ns. The addresses are transferred to a computer interface through CAMAC modules. Multiple buffering permits further data acquisition during CAMAC transfer cycles. (Auth.)

  16. Fabrication of preamplifier for proportional counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lotfi, Y.; Yazdanpanah, M.; Talebi, B.; Mohammadi, A.; Etaati, Gh.

    2002-01-01

    We have tried to describe techniques of preamplifier fabrication for proportional counter. At first electronic circuit of preamplifier has been analyzed by means of Or cad 9.1. Then we assembled the circuit. Thereafter essential and standard parameters of preamplifier has been measured and compared with foreign made one, according to IEEE standard method. (IEEE Std 301-1988) Specification for our preamplifier is: 1. Rise time of output plus: 25 nsec. 2. Fall time of output pulse: 50μ sec. 3. Charge sensitive: 46.3 mV/pc. 4. Average noise: 500 ion pair (rms) 5. Count R ate L imit: 9.14*10 10 Count/sec. 6. Resolution: %1.3 7. Spectrum of Bf3 detector to 300μ Ci Am-Be source for this preamplifier is the same as foreign one. On the Whole comparison of this preamplifier with the foreign one shows that their parameters similarity is about %95

  17. Tables of Confidence Limits for Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-01

    0.972 180 49 0.319 0.332 0,357 175 165 0.964 0.969 0.976 ISO 50 0.325 0.338 0.363 175 166 0.969 0.973 0.980 180 51 0.331 0.344 0.368 175 167 0.973 0.977...0.528 180 18 0.135 0 145 0.164 180 19 0.141 0.151 0.171 ISO 80 0.495 0,508 0.534 347 UPPER CONFIDENCE LIMIT FOR PROPORTIONS CONFIDENCE LEVEL...500 409 0.8401 0.8459 0.8565 500 355 0.7364 0.7434 0.7564 500 356 0.7383 0.7453 0.7582 500 410 0.8420 0.8478 0 8583 500 357 0.7402 0.7472 0.7602 500

  18. Proportional chamber with data analog output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popov, V.E.; Prokof'ev, A.N.

    1977-01-01

    A proportional multiwier chamber is described. The chamber makes it possible to determine angles at wich a pion strikes a polarized target. A delay line, made of 60-core flat cable is used for removing signals from the chamber. From the delay line, signals are amplified and successively injected into shapers and a time-to-amplitude converter. An amplitude of the time-to amplitude converter output signal unambiguously determines the coordinate of a point at which a particle strikes the chamber plane. There are also given circuits of amplifiers, which consist of a preamplifier with gain 30 and a main amplifier with adjustable gain. Data on testing the chamber with the 450 MeV pion beam is demonstrated. The chamber features an efficiency of about 98 per cent under load of 2x10 5 s -1

  19. Proportional representation apportionment methods and their applications

    CERN Document Server

    Pukelsheim, Friedrich

    2017-01-01

    The book offers an in-depth study of the translation of vote counts into seat numbers in proportional representation systems  – an approach guided by practical needs. It also provides plenty of empirical instances illustrating the results. It analyzes in detail the 2014 elections to the European Parliament in the 28 member states, as well as the 2009 and 2013 elections to the German Bundestag. This second edition is a complete revision and expanded version of the first edition published in 2014, and many empirical election results that serve as examples have been updated. Further, a final chapter has been added assembling biographical sketches and authoritative quotes from individuals who pioneered the development of apportionment methodology. The mathematical exposition and the interrelations with political science and constitutional jurisprudence make this an apt resource for interdisciplinary courses and seminars on electoral systems and apportionment methods.

  20. Quality measurement by proportional counter with B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onizuka, Yoshihiko; Endo, Satoru; Tanaka, Kenichi

    2005-01-01

    The dosimetry of air and the tissue-equivalent phantom made of acryl are carried out by the tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) and TEPC with wall contained B, and both results were compared. The changes of quality with distance from the beam center are determined by the frequency mean renewal energy y F (y)and the dose mean renewal energy y D (y) as indicators of quality. Both y F (y)and y D (y) of tissue-equivalent phantom are larger than air, but very large change was not observed in all distance. The dose rate is determined by y D (y), the number of events and measurement time. Change of dose rate was larger than the change of quality. The maximum value of dose rate depended on γray and neutron beam showed at the point 2 cm away from the center. (S.Y.)

  1. Proportional counter system for radiation measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sugimoto, M; Okudera, S

    1970-11-21

    A gas such as Xe or Kr employed in counter tubes is charged into the counter tube of a gas-flow type proportional counter for radiation measurement and into a vessel having a volume larger than that of the counter tube. The vessel communicates with the counter tube to circulate the gas via a pump through both the vessel and tube during measurement. An organic film such as a polyester synthetic resin film is used for the window of the counter tube to measure X-rays in the long wavelength range. Accordingly, a wide range of X-rays can be measured including both long and short wavelengths ranges by utilizing only one counter tube, thus permitting the gases employed to be effectively used.

  2. Count rate effect in proportional counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bednarek, B.

    1980-01-01

    A new concept is presented explaining changes in spectrometric parameters of proportional counters which occur due to varying count rate. The basic feature of this concept is that the gas gain of the counter remains constant in a wide range of count rate and that the decrease in the pulse amplitude and the detorioration of the energy resolution observed are the results of changes in the shape of original current pulses generated in the active volume of the counter. In order to confirm the validity of this statement, measurements of the gas amplification factor have been made in a wide count rate range. It is shown that above a certain critical value the gas gain depends on both the operating voltage and the count rate. (author)

  3. Pathogens gone wild? Medical anthropology and the "swine flu" pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Merrill

    2009-07-01

    Beginning in April 2009, global attention began focusing on the emergence in Mexico of a potentially highly lethal new influenza strain of porcine origin that has successfully jumped species barriers and is now being transmitted around the world. Reported on extensively by the mass media, commented on by public health and government officials across the globe, and focused on with nervous attention by the general public, the so-called swine flu pandemic raises important questions, addressed here, concerning the capacity of medical anthropology to respond usefully to such disease outbreaks and their health and social consequences.

  4. Slowing the Next Pandemic: Survey of Community Mitigation Strategies

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-04-15

    During the next influenza pandemic, it will take time to develop a vaccine and there may be limited medication to treat or prevent illness. To slow the spread of disease, CDC and other public health officials will likely ask Americans to decrease contact with others through altering work schedules, school dismissals and other measures. Researchers recently surveyed the public to see whether people could follow those recommendations and what kind of impact they might have.  Created: 4/15/2008 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 4/29/2008.

  5. [Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

  6. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

    2013-01-01

    The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

  7. Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A; Shanks, G Dennis; Baker, Michael G

    2012-01-01

    Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

  8. ALMA Telescope Reaches New Heights

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-01

    ball at a distance of nine miles, and to keep their smooth reflecting surfaces accurate to less than the thickness of a human hair. Once the transporter reached the high plateau it carried the antenna to a concrete pad -- a docking station with connections for power and fiber optics -- and positioned it with an accuracy of a small fraction of an inch. The transporter is guided by a laser steering system and, just like some cars, also has ultrasonic collision detectors. These sensors ensure the safety of the state-of-the-art antennas as the transporter drives them across what will soon be a rather crowded plateau. Ultimately, ALMA will have at least 66 antennas distributed over about 200 pads, spread over distances of up to 11.5 miles and operating as a single, giant telescope. Even when ALMA is fully operational, the transporters will be used to move the antennas between pads to reconfigure the telescope for different kinds of observations. This first ALMA antenna at the high site will soon be joined by others, and the ALMA team looks forward to making their first observations from the Chajnantor plateau. They plan to link three antennas by early 2010, and to make the first scientific observations with ALMA in the second half of 2011. ALMA will help astronomers answer important questions about our cosmic origins. The telescope will observe the Universe using light with millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths, between infrared light and radio waves in the electromagnetic spectrum. Light at these wavelengths comes from some of the coldest, and from some of the most distant objects in the cosmos. These include cold clouds of gas and dust where new stars are being born, or remote galaxies towards the edge of the observable universe. The Universe is relatively unexplored at submillimeter wavelengths, as the telescopes need extremely dry atmospheric conditions, such as those at Chajnantor, and advanced detector technology. The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array

  9. Knowledge about pandemic influenza and compliance with containment measures among Australians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David; Francis, J Lynn; d'Espaignet, Edouard Tursan; Duncan, Sarah; Islam, Fakhrul; Speare, Rick

    2009-08-01

    To examine the level of stated compliance with public health pandemic influenza control measures and explore factors influencing cooperation for pandemic influenza control in Australia. A computer-assisted telephone interview survey was conducted by professional interviewers to collect information on the Australian public's knowledge of pandemic influenza and willingness to comply with public health control measures. The sample was randomly selected using an electronic database and printed telephone directories to ensure sample representativeness from all Australian states and territories. After we described pandemic influenza to the respondents to ensure they understood the significance of the issue, the questions on compliance were repeated and changes in responses were analysed with McNemar's test for paired data Only 23% of the 1166 respondents demonstrated a clear understanding of the term 'pandemic influenza'. Of those interviewed, 94.1% reported being willing to comply with home quarantine; 94.2%, to avoid public events; and 90.7%, to postpone social gatherings. After we explained the meaning of 'pandemic' to interviewees, stated compliance increased significantly (to 97.5%, 98.3% and 97.2% respectively). Those who reported being unfamiliar with the term 'pandemic influenza,' male respondents and employed people not able to work from home were less willing to comply. In Australia, should the threat arise, compliance with containment measures against pandemic influenza is likely to be high, yet it could be further enhanced through a public education programme conveying just a few key messages. A basic understanding of pandemic influenza is associated with stated willingness to comply with containment measures. Investing now in promoting measures to prepare for a pandemic or other health emergency will have considerable value.

  10. Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina H Chan

    Full Text Available Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham's 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0 (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9 and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%. Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models.

  11. Comparison between pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza pneumonia and seasonal influenza pneumonia in adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishiguro, Takashi; Takayanagi, Noboru; Yoneda, Koichiro

    2011-01-01

    We compared 126 cases of seasonal influenza pneumonia (seasonal flu) reported between January, 1996 and March, 2009, with 10 cases of laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus pneumonia (novel flu), based on clinical condition, computed tomography (CT) findings, severity, treatment, and prognosis, to clarify the characteristics of this novel flu. The mean age of subjects was 52.4 years in the novel flu group and 64 years in the seasonal flu group, and novel flu patients were younger than seasonal flu patients. Seasonal flu patients had more underlying diseases than did novel flu patients. The median duration from illness onset to hospitalization was 4 days in both groups. Primary viral pneumonia was present in 70% of novel flu cases and 31% of seasonal flu cases. The proportion of primary virus pneumonia was higher in novel flu patients, and the disease severity of the seasonal flu group was more severe than that of the novel flu group. White blood cell and lymphocyte counts were lower in novel flu patients, and chest CT images showed bilateral shadows and pure ground-glass opacities more frequently in the novel flu cases. There were no differences in treatment, number of days required for the fever to subside, or mortality between the groups. (author)

  12. A phenomenological SMA model for combined axial–torsional proportional/non-proportional loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodaghi, M.; Damanpack, A.R.; Aghdam, M.M.; Shakeri, M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a simple and robust phenomenological model for shape memory alloys (SMAs) is proposed to simulate main features of SMAs under uniaxial as well as biaxial combined axial–torsional proportional/non-proportional loadings. The constitutive model for polycrystalline SMAs is developed within the framework of continuum thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The model nominates the volume fractions of self-accommodated and oriented martensite as scalar internal variables and the preferred direction of oriented martensitic variants as directional internal variable. An algorithm is introduced to develop explicit relationships for the thermo-mechanical behavior of SMAs under uniaxial and biaxial combined axial–torsional proportional/non-proportional loading conditions and also thermal loading. It is shown that the model is able to simulate main aspects of SMAs including self-accommodation, martensitic transformation, orientation and reorientation of martensite, shape memory effect, ferro-elasticity and pseudo-elasticity. A description of the time-discrete counterpart of the proposed SMA model is presented. Experimental results of uniaxial tension and biaxial combined tension–torsion non-proportional tests are simulated and a good qualitative correlation between numerical and experimental responses is achieved. Due to simplicity and accuracy, the model is expected to be used in the future studies dealing with the analysis of SMA devices in which two stress components including one normal and one shear stress are dominant

  13. The multi-stage proportional chamber in the detection of Cherenkov rings for particle recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauli, F.

    1979-01-01

    The multi-stage proportional chamber enables very high gains of 10 6 or more to be reached in gaseous mixtures offering a very good quantum efficiency in the far ultra-violet range. This makes it an ideal instrument for detecting and locating the photons emitted by Cerenkov effect in appropriate radiators [fr

  14. The commercial marketing of healthy lifestyles to address the global child and adolescent obesity pandemic: prospects, pitfalls and priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraak, Vivica I; Kumanyika, Shiriki K; Story, Mary

    2009-11-01

    Public- and private-sector initiatives to promote healthy eating and physical activity, called 'healthy lifestyles', are a relatively recent response to the global obesity pandemic. The present paper explores different views about marketing healthy lifestyles with a special emphasis on private-sector initiatives and public-private partnerships designed to reach young people. We discuss aspects of these initiatives and partnerships from three perspectives: (i) the potential for commercial marketing practices to have a favourable influence on reversing global obesity trends (termed prospects); (ii) unresolved dilemmas and challenges that may hinder progress (termed pitfalls); and (iii) the implementation and evaluation of coordinated and systematic actions (termed priorities) that may increase the likelihood that commercially marketed healthy-lifestyle initiatives and public-private partnerships can make a positive contribution to reverse the rise in overweight and obesity among young people globally.

  15. Calibration of proportional counters in microdosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varma, M.N.

    1982-01-01

    Many microdosimetric spectra for low LET as well as high LET radiations are measured using commercially available (similar to EG and G) Rossi proportional counters. This paper discusses the corrections to be applied to data when calibration of the counter is made using one type of radiation, and then the counter is used in a different radiation field. The principal correction factor is due to differences in W-value of the radiation used for calibration and the radiation for which microdosimetric measurements are made. Both propane and methane base tissue-equivalent (TE) gases are used in these counters. When calibrating the detectors, it is important to use the correct stopping power value for that gas. Deviations in y-bar/sub F/ and y-bar/sub D/ are calculated for 60 Co using different extrapolation procedures from 0.15 keV/μm to zero event size. These deviations can be as large as 30%. Advantages of reporting microdosimetric parameters such as y-bar/sub F/ and y-bar/sub D/ above a certain minimum cut-off are discussed

  16. Environmental drivers of sapwood and heartwood proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Recent advances combining information on stem volume from remote sensing with allometric relationships derived from forest inventory databases have led to spatially continuous estimates of stem, branch, root and foliage biomass in northern boreal and temperate forests. However, a separation of stem biomass into sapwood and heartwood mass has remained unsolved, despite their important differences in biogeochemical function, for instance concerning their contribution to tree respiratory costs. Although relationships between sapwood cross-sectional area and supported leaf area are well established, less is known about relations between sapwood or heartwood mass and other traits (e.g. stem mass), since these biomass compartments are more difficult to measure in practice. Here we investigate the variability in sapwood and heartwood proportions and determining environmental factors. For this task we explore an available biomass and allometry database (BAAD) and study relative sapwood and heartwood area, volume, mass and density in dependence of tree species, age and climate. First, a theoretical framework on how to estimate sap- and heartwood mass from stem mass is developed. Subsequently, the underlying assumptions and relationships are explored with the help of the BAAD. The established relationships can be used to derive spatially continuous sapwood and heartwood mass estimates by applying them to remote sensing based stem volume products. This would be a fundamental step forward to a data-driven estimate of autotrophic respiration.

  17. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Gerjo; Jonkers, Ruud; Gelissen, Roger; Meertens, Ree; Schaalma, Herman; de Zwart, Onno

    2010-03-30

    Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  18. Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schaalma Herman

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. Methods A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Results Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Conclusions Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

  19. The ENSO-pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.; Lipsitch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific, which affects weather conditions, including temperatures, precipitation, winds and storm activity, across the planet. ENSO has two extreme phases marked by either warmer (El Niño) or cooler (La Niña) than average sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific. We find that the 4 most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in ENSO have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.

  20. The zombie thermographer apocalypse preparedness 101: zombie thermographer pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbert, Fred

    2013-05-01

    Fact: The U.S Government Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response, rather remarkably has dedicated part of their web site to" Zombie Preparedness". See: http://www.cdc.gov/phpr/zombies.htm for more information. This is a tongue-incheek campaign with messages to engage audiences with the hazards of unpreparedness. The CDC director, U.S. Assistant Surgeon General Ali S. Khan (RET), MD, MPH notes, "If you are generally well equipped to deal with a zombie apocalypse you will be prepared for a hurricane, pandemic, earthquake, or terrorist attack. Make a plan, and be prepared!" (CDC Website, April 26th, 2013). Today we can make an easy comparison between the humor that the CDC is bringing to light, and what is actually happening in the Thermographic Industry. It must be acknowledge there are "Zombie Thermographers" out there. At times, it can be observed from the sidelines as a pandemic apocalypse attacking the credibility and legitimacy of the science and the industry that so many have been working to advance for over 30 years. This paper outlines and explores the trends currently taking place, the very real risks to facility plant, property, and human life as a result, and the strategies to overcome these problems.

  1. Operational Reach: Is Current Army Doctrine Adequate?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Heintzelman, Scott

    2003-01-01

    The term operational reach, an element of operational design, is new to U.S. Army doctrine. Operational reach is not found in the previous edition of the Army's basic operational doctrine, Field Manual...

  2. Stream Habitat Reach Summary - NCWAP [ds158

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Stream Habitat - NCWAP - Reach Summary [ds158] shapefile contains in-stream habitat survey data summarized to the stream reach level. It is a derivative of the...

  3. Introduction of oral vitamin D supplementation and the rise of the allergy pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wjst Matthias

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The history of the allergy pandemic is well documented, enabling us to put the vitamin D hypothesis into its historical context. The purpose of this study is to compare the prevalence of rickets, vitamin D supply, and allergy prevalence at 50-year intervals by means of a retrospective analysis of the literature since 1880. English cities in 1880 were characterized by an extremely high rickets prevalence, the beginning of commercial cod liver oil production, and the near absence of any allergic diseases. By 1930 hay fever prevalence had risen to about 3% in English-speaking countries where cod liver oil was preferentially used for the treatment of rickets. In 1980 vitamin D was used nation-wide in all industrialized countries as supplement to industrial baby food, thus eradicating nearly all cases of rickets. At the same time the allergy prevalence reached an all-time high, affecting about 30% of the population. Time trends are therefore compatible with the vitamin D hypothesis although direct conclusions cannot be drawn. It is interesting, however, to note that there are at least two earlier research papers linking synthesized vitamin D intake and allergy (Reed 1930 and Selye 1962 published prior to the modern vitamin D hypothesis first proposed in 1999.

  4. When Advocacy Obscures Accuracy Online: Digital Pandemics of Public Health Misinformation Through an Antifluoride Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getman, Rebekah; Saraf, Avinash; Zhang, Lily H.; Kalenderian, Elsbeth

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. In an antifluoridation case study, we explored digital pandemics and the social spread of scientifically inaccurate health information across the Web, and we considered the potential health effects. Methods. Using the social networking site Facebook and the open source applications Netvizz and Gephi, we analyzed the connectedness of antifluoride networks as a measure of social influence, the social diffusion of information based on conversations about a sample scientific publication as a measure of spread, and the engagement and sentiment about the publication as a measure of attitudes and behaviors. Results. Our study sample was significantly more connected than was the social networking site overall (P Social diffusion was evident; users were forced to navigate multiple pages or never reached the sample publication being discussed 60% and 12% of the time, respectively. Users had a 1 in 2 chance of encountering negative and nonempirical content about fluoride unrelated to the sample publication. Conclusions. Network sociology may be as influential as the information content and scientific validity of a particular health topic discussed using social media. Public health must employ social strategies for improved communication management. PMID:25602893

  5. The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

    2010-11-01

    Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gibson Jennifer L

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. Discussion In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. Summary The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

  7. A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination: A retrospective evaluation of adverse maternal, fetal and neonatal outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabiani, Massimo; Bella, Antonino; Rota, Maria C; Clagnan, Elena; Gallo, Tolinda; D'Amato, Maurizio; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Ferrara, Lorenza; Demicheli, Vittorio; Martinelli, Domenico; Prato, Rosa; Rizzo, Caterina

    2015-05-05

    Although concerns about safety of influenza vaccination during pregnancy have been raised in the past, vaccination of pregnant women was recommended in many countries during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the risk of adverse maternal, fetal and neonatal outcomes among pregnant women vaccinated with a MF59-adjuvanted A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine. The study was carried out in four Italian regions (Piemonte, Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, Lazio, and Puglia) among 102,077 pregnant women potentially exposed during the second or third trimester of gestation to the vaccination campaign implemented in 2009/2010. Based on data retrieved from the regional administrative databases, the statistical analysis was performed using the Cox proportional-hazards model, adjusting for the propensity score to account for the potential confounding effect due to the socio-demographic characteristics and the clinical and reproductive history of women. A total of 100,332 pregnant women were eligible for the analysis. Of these, 2003 (2.0%) received the A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination during the second or third trimester of gestation. We did not observe any statistically significant association between the A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination and different maternal outcomes (hospital admissions for influenza, pneumonia, hypertension, eclampsia, diabetes, thyroid disease, and anaemia), fetal outcomes (fetal death after the 22nd gestational week) and neonatal outcomes (pre-term birth, low birth weight, low 5-min Apgar score, and congenital malformations). Pre-existing health-risk conditions (hospital admissions and drug prescriptions for specific diseases before the onset of pregnancy) were observed more frequently among vaccinated women, thus suggesting that concomitant chronic conditions increased vaccination uptake. The results of this study add some evidence on the safety of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination during

  8. Characteristics of atopic children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection: pandemic H1N1 influenza reveals 'occult' asthma of childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Shunji; Hirano, Reiji; Hashimoto, Kunio; Haneda, Yasuhiro; Shirabe, Komei; Ichiyama, Takashi

    2011-02-01

    The number of human cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection has increased in Japan since April 2009, as it has worldwide. This virus is widespread in the Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan, where most infected children exhibited respiratory symptoms. Bronchial asthma is thought to be one of the risk factors that exacerbate respiratory symptoms of pandemic H1N1-infected patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the records of 33 children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection who were admitted to our hospital between October and December 2009 and analyzed their clinical features. The percentage of children with asthma attack, with or without abnormal findings on chest radiographs (pneumonia, atelectasis, etc.), caused by pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was significantly higher than that of children with asthma attack and 2008-2009 seasonal influenza infection. Of the 33 children in our study, 22 (66.7%) experienced an asthma attack. Among these children, 20 (90.9%) did not receive long-term management for bronchial asthma, whereas 7 (31.8%) were not diagnosed with bronchial asthma and had experienced their first asthma attack. However, the severity of the attack did not correlate with the severity of the pulmonary complications of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection. The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus greatly increases the risk of lower respiratory tract complications such as asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis, when compared to the seasonal influenza virus. Furthermore, our results suggest that pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection can easily induce a severe asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis in atopic children without any history of either an asthma attack or asthma treatment. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  9. Pandemic risk prevention in European countries: role of the ECDC in preparing for pandemics. Development and experience with a national self-assessment procedure, 2005-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoll, A

    2010-12-01

    To be effective risk prevention work takes place well before pandemics through the three Ps: Planning, Preparedness and Practise. Between 2005 and 2008 the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) worked with the European Commission (EC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe (WHO-Euro) to assist European countries in preparing themselves for a future influenza pandemic. All eligible countries in the European Union and European Economic Area participated with energy and commitment. Indicators of preparedness were developed based on WHO planning guidance and these were set within a simple assessment which included a formal country visit. The procedure evolved considerably with field experience. As the complexity of pandemic preparedness was appreciated it changed from being a classical short external assessment to longer national self-assessments with demonstrable impact, especially when self-assessments were published. There were essential supporting activities undertaken including a series of pan-European pandemic preparedness workshops organised by EC, WHO-Euro, ECDC and countries holding the European Union Presidency. The self-assessments highlighted additional work and documentation that was needed by national authorities from the ECDC. This work was undertaken and the document produced. The benefits of the self-assessments were seen in the 2009 pandemic in that EU/EEA countries performed better than some others. A number of the guidance documents were updated to fit the specific features of the pandemic. However the pandemic revealed many weaknesses and brought new challenges for European countries, notably over communication and vaccines, the need to prepare for a variety of scenarios and to factor severity estimates into preparedness, to improve surveillance for severe disease and to deliver seroepidemiology. Any revised self-assessment procedure will need to respond to these challenges.

  10. REACH: impact on the US cosmetics industry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Anne; Polla, Barbara; Polla, Ada

    2009-03-01

    The Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and restriction of Chemicals (REACH) is a recent European regulation on chemical substances meant to protect human health and the environment. REACH imposes the "precautionary principle" where additional data and definitive action are required when uncertainty is identified. The cosmetics industry is only partially concerned by REACH: while the stages of registration and evaluation apply to cosmetics, those of authorization and restriction most likely will not, as cosmetic ingredients are already subject to regulation by various agencies and directives. REACH has potential benefits to the industry including the possibility of reassuring consumers and improving their image of chemicals and cosmetics. However, REACH also has potential disadvantages, mainly with regard to impeding innovation. The American cosmetics industry will be affected by REACH, because all US manufacturers who export substances to Europe will have to fully comply with REACH.

  11. The health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) during an annual influenza epidemic and influenza pandemic in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Ronald; Roberts, Craig S; An, Zhijie; Chen, Chieh-I; Wang, Bruce

    2015-07-24

    China has experienced several severe outbreaks of influenza over the past century: 1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009. Influenza itself can be deadly; however, the increase in mortality during an influenza outbreak is also attributable to secondary bacterial infections, specifically pneumococcal disease. Given the history of pandemic outbreaks and the associated morbidity and mortality, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of a PCV7 vaccination program in China from the context of typical and pandemic influenza seasons. A decision-analytic model was employed to evaluate the impact of a 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) infant vaccination program on the incidence, mortality, and cost associated with pneumococcal disease during a typical influenza season (15% flu incidence) and influenza pandemic (30% flu incidence) in China. The model incorporated Chinese data where available and included both direct and indirect (herd) effects on the unvaccinated population, assuming a point in time following the initial introduction of the vaccine where the impact of the indirect effects has reached a steady state, approximately seven years following the implementation of the vaccine program. Pneumococcal disease incidence, mortality, and costs were evaluated over a one year time horizon. Healthcare costs were calculated using a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal disease. The model predicted that routine PCV7 vaccination of infants in China would prevent 5,053,453 cases of pneumococcal disease and 76,714 deaths in a single year during a normal influenza season.The estimated incremental-cost-effectiveness ratios were ¥12,281 (US$1,900) per life-year saved and ¥13,737 (US$2,125) per quality-adjusted-life-year gained. During an influenza pandemic, the model estimated that routine vaccination with PCV7 would prevent 8,469,506 cases of pneumococcal disease and 707,526 deaths, and would be cost-saving. Routine

  12. A model for HIV/AIDS pandemic with optimal control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sule, Amiru; Abdullah, Farah Aini

    2015-05-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is pandemic. It has affected nearly 60 million people since the detection of the disease in 1981 to date. In this paper basic deterministic HIV/AIDS model with mass action incidence function are developed. Stability analysis is carried out. And the disease free equilibrium of the basic model was found to be locally asymptotically stable whenever the threshold parameter (RO) value is less than one, and unstable otherwise. The model is extended by introducing two optimal control strategies namely, CD4 counts and treatment for the infective using optimal control theory. Numerical simulation was carried out in order to illustrate the analytic results.

  13. Substantial proportion of global streamflow less than three months old

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasechko, Scott; Kirchner, James W.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.

    2016-02-01

    Biogeochemical cycles, contaminant transport and chemical weathering are regulated by the speed at which precipitation travels through landscapes and reaches streams. Streamflow is a mixture of young and old precipitation, but the global proportions of these young and old components are not known. Here we analyse seasonal cycles of oxygen isotope ratios in rain, snow and streamflow compiled from 254 watersheds around the world, and calculate the fraction of streamflow that is derived from precipitation that fell within the past two or three months. This young streamflow accounts for about a third of global river discharge, and comprises at least 5% of discharge in about 90% of the catchments we investigated. We conclude that, although typical catchments have mean transit times of years or even decades, they nonetheless can rapidly transmit substantial fractions of soluble contaminant inputs to streams. Young streamflow is less prevalent in steeper landscapes, which suggests they are characterized by deeper vertical infiltration. Because young streamflow is derived from less than 0.1% of global groundwater storage, we conclude that this thin veneer of aquifer storage will have a disproportionate influence on stream water quality.

  14. A perspective on multiple waves of influenza pandemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummert, Anna; Weiss, Howard; Long, Li-Ping; Amigó, José M; Wan, Xiu-Feng

    2013-01-01

    A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies. We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography), where each wave spreads through one sub-population. The fourth mechanism is virus mutation which causes delayed susceptibility of individuals. The fifth mechanism is waning immunity. Each mechanism is incorporated into separate mathematical models, and outbreaks are then simulated. We use the models to examine the effects of the initial number of infected individuals (e.g., border control at the beginning of the outbreak) and the timing of and amount of available vaccinations. Four models, individually or in any combination, reproduce the two waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the United States, both qualitatively and quantitatively. One model reproduces the two waves only qualitatively. All models indicate that significantly reducing or delaying the initial numbers of infected individuals would have little impact on the attack rate. Instead, this reduction or delay results in a single wave as opposed to two waves. Furthermore, four of these models also indicate that a vaccination program started earlier than October 2009 (when the H1N1 vaccine was initially distributed) could have eliminated the second wave of infection, while more vaccine available starting in October would not have eliminated the second wave.

  15. A perspective on multiple waves of influenza pandemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Mummert

    Full Text Available A striking characteristic of the past four influenza pandemic outbreaks in the United States has been the multiple waves of infections. However, the mechanisms responsible for the multiple waves of influenza or other acute infectious diseases are uncertain. Understanding these mechanisms could provide knowledge for health authorities to develop and implement prevention and control strategies.We exhibit five distinct mechanisms, each of which can generate two waves of infections for an acute infectious disease. The first two mechanisms capture changes in virus transmissibility and behavioral changes. The third mechanism involves population heterogeneity (e.g., demography, geography, where each wave spreads through one sub-population. The fourth mechanism is virus mutation which causes delayed susceptibility of individuals. The fifth mechanism is waning immunity. Each mechanism is incorporated into separate mathematical models, and outbreaks are then simulated. We use the models to examine the effects of the initial number of infected individuals (e.g., border control at the beginning of the outbreak and the timing of and amount of available vaccinations.Four models, individually or in any combination, reproduce the two waves of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the United States, both qualitatively and quantitatively. One model reproduces the two waves only qualitatively. All models indicate that significantly reducing or delaying the initial numbers of infected individuals would have little impact on the attack rate. Instead, this reduction or delay results in a single wave as opposed to two waves. Furthermore, four of these models also indicate that a vaccination program started earlier than October 2009 (when the H1N1 vaccine was initially distributed could have eliminated the second wave of infection, while more vaccine available starting in October would not have eliminated the second wave.

  16. Pulmonary function in patients with pandemic H1N1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soraia Koppe

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: The influenza A (H1N1 was responsible for the 2009 pandemic, especially with severe pulmonary complications. Objective: To describe characteristics of patients in a university hospital in Curitiba - PR with laboratory diagnosis of influenza A (H1N1 and its post hospital discharge in the 2009 lung function pandemic. Methodology: A retrospective observational study. It was used as a data source the institution Epidemiology Service (SEPIH and spirometry tests of patients who were admitted in 2009, 18 years without lung disease associated and non-pregnant. Descriptive statistics were used and applied Fisher's exact test for relationship between comorbidity and spirometry tests. Results: There were 84 confirmed cases, of these 11 were eligible for the study with a mean age of 44.27 years (± 9.63 and 63.63% males. 54.54% of the 11 patients had comorbidities associated with systemic arterial hypertension (54.54%, diabetes (18.18% and late postoperative period of kidney transplantation (18.18% were the most frequent. Most patients (81.81% had BMI ≥ 25kg / m². The Spirometry test was performed approximately 40.09 (± 15.27 days after discharge, of these, 5 had restrictive pattern and all had abnormal chest radiograph results. There was no statistically significant difference between the results of Spirometry and comorbidities (p=0.24. Conclusions: The group evaluated in this research did not show a direct relationship between Spirometry and comorbidities, but changes in Spirometry in some patients after hospital discharge stood out, suggesting changes in lung function due to influenza A (H1N1.

  17. Burden of hospitalizations for pandemic influenza in Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sočan, Maja

    2011-01-01

    Aim To analyze the 2009/2010 epidemiological data of patients hospitalized for confirmed pandemic influenza in Slovenia. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of health statistical data collected in an electronic data set Diagnosis-related Group system. Data on age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses, duration of hospital stay, admission to the intensive care unit, disease outcome, and the week of the admission to the hospital were extracted for patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza virus infection. Results A total of 748 (hospitalization rate 37.4/100,000) patients diagnosed with confirmed influenza virus infection were admitted to 19 public hospitals and 7 private acute care providers during the period from September 28, 2009 to April 11, 2010. The highest admission rate was recorded for mid-November 2009. Out of 748 hospitalized patients, 411 (55%) were children younger than 15 years. Influenza was coded as the primary diagnosis in 536 patients. In 35% of the patients, influenza caused viral pneumonia. Fewer than one third of patients (28%) had a pre-existing chronic disease and/or condition predisposing them to complicated or adverse outcomes of influenza, most frequently chronic lung diseases, mainly asthma. A median hospital stay was 2 days for children and 5 days for adult patients. Longer hospitalization was required in patients who had a secondary diagnosis of influenza. Older male individuals suffering from pneumonia and chronic diseases were overrepresented among cases admitted to the intensive care units. Conclusions The epidemiological data extracted from the Diagnosis-related Group system in Slovenia were comparable with the data on pandemic patients published elsewhere. PMID:21495197

  18. Natural T Cell–mediated Protection against Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza. Results of the Flu Watch Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lili; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Fragaszy, Ellen B.; Bermingham, Alison; Copas, Andrew; Dukes, Oliver; Millett, Elizabeth R. C.; Nazareth, Irwin; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S.; Watson, John M.; Zambon, Maria; Johnson, Anne M.; McMichael, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: A high proportion of influenza infections are asymptomatic. Animal and human challenge studies and observational studies suggest T cells protect against disease among those infected, but the impact of T-cell immunity at the population level is unknown. Objectives: To investigate whether naturally preexisting T-cell responses targeting highly conserved internal influenza proteins could provide cross-protective immunity against pandemic and seasonal influenza. Methods: We quantified influenza A(H3N2) virus–specific T cells in a population cohort during seasonal and pandemic periods between 2006 and 2010. Follow-up included paired serology, symptom reporting, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) investigation of symptomatic cases. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 1,414 unvaccinated individuals had baseline T-cell measurements (1,703 participant observation sets). T-cell responses to A(H3N2) virus nucleoprotein (NP) dominated and strongly cross-reacted with A(H1N1)pdm09 NP (P < 0.001) in participants lacking antibody to A(H1N1)pdm09. Comparison of paired preseason and post-season sera (1,431 sets) showed 205 (14%) had evidence of infection based on fourfold influenza antibody titer rises. The presence of NP-specific T cells before exposure to virus correlated with less symptomatic, PCR-positive influenza A (overall adjusted odds ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.11–0.68; P = 0.005, during pandemic [P = 0.047] and seasonal [P = 0.049] periods). Protection was independent of baseline antibodies. Influenza-specific T-cell responses were detected in 43%, indicating a substantial population impact. Conclusions: Naturally occurring cross-protective T-cell immunity protects against symptomatic PCR-confirmed disease in those with evidence of infection and helps to explain why many infections do not cause symptoms. Vaccines stimulating T cells may provide important cross-protective immunity. PMID:25844934

  19. Patterns of arm muscle activation involved in octopus reaching movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutfreund, Y; Flash, T; Fiorito, G; Hochner, B

    1998-08-01

    The extreme flexibility of the octopus arm allows it to perform many different movements, yet octopuses reach toward a target in a stereotyped manner using a basic invariant motor structure: a bend traveling from the base of the arm toward the tip (Gutfreund et al., 1996a). To study the neuronal control of these movements, arm muscle activation [electromyogram (EMG)] was measured together with the kinematics of reaching movements. The traveling bend is associated with a propagating wave of muscle activation, with maximal muscle activation slightly preceding the traveling bend. Tonic activation was occasionally maintained afterward. Correlation of the EMG signals with the kinematic variables (velocities and accelerations) reveals that a significant part of the kinematic variability can be explained by the level of muscle activation. Furthermore, the EMG level measured during the initial stages of movement predicts the peak velocity attained toward the end of the reaching movement. These results suggest that feed-forward motor commands play an important role in the control of movement velocity and that simple adjustment of the excitation levels at the initial stages of the movement can set the velocity profile of the whole movement. A simple model of octopus arm extension is proposed in which the driving force is set initially and is then decreased in proportion to arm diameter at the bend. The model qualitatively reproduces the typical velocity profiles of octopus reaching movements, suggesting a simple control mechanism for bend propagation in the octopus arm.

  20. Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry scrreening of passengers for pandemic influenza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mcmahon, Benjamin [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states -- not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimately exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.

  1. 76 FR 58466 - Request for Comments on World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    ... response, including implementation of the World Health Organization Pandemic Influenza Preparedness... INFORMATION: Written comments are sought in light of the approval of the World Health Organization (WHO... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration Request for Comments on World Health...

  2. Identification of reassortant pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in Korean pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jae Yeon; Park, Sung Jun; Kim, Hye Kwon; Rho, Semi; Nguyen, Giap Van; Song, Daesub; Kang, Bo Kyu; Moon, Hyung Jun; Yeom, Min Joo; Park, Bong Kyun

    2012-05-01

    Since the 2009 pandemic human H1N1 influenza A virus emerged in April 2009, novel reassortant strains have been identified throughout the world. This paper describes the detection and isolation of reassortant strains associated with human pandemic influenza H1N1 and swine influenza H1N2 (SIV) viruses in swine populations in South Korea. Two influenza H1N2 reassortants were detected, and subtyped by PCR. The strains were isolated using Madin- Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells, and genetically characterized by phylogenetic analysis for genetic diversity. They consisted of human, avian, and swine virus genes that were originated from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus and a neuraminidase (NA) gene from H1N2 SIV previously isolated in North America. This identification of reassortment events in swine farms raises concern that reassortant strains may continuously circulate within swine populations, calling for the further study and surveillance of pandemic H1N1 among swine.

  3. A Coordinated Approach to Communicating Pediatric-Related Information on Pandemic Influenza at the Community Level

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2009-12-16

    The purpose of this document is to provide a suggested approach, based on input from pediatric stakeholders, to communicating pediatric-related information on pandemic influenza at the community level in a step-by-step manner.

  4. Pediatric Healthcare Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Stakeholder Meeting - Summary of Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HCTT CHE

    2010-01-01

    The goal of the meeting was to bring together subject matter experts to develop tools and resources for use by the pediatric healthcare community in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza activity during the 2009 influenza season.

  5. A study to identify winning strategies for the business community during the next pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spriggs, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between the healthcare system and the corporate sector to answer the following research question: how does the healthcare system best prepare small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza? Data were collected and collated through a literature review, electronic survey and semi-structured follow-up telephone interviews. The participants were businesses with membership in the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, a provincial lobby group in Alberta, Canada. The findings indicate strategies that were effective in minimising impact to the business community during the H1N1 pandemic and suggest areas for the business community to improve in preparation for the next pandemic influenza. Recommendations focus on establishing new links for communication between the business community and the healthcare sector and improving strategies to increase the resilience of small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza.

  6. Circulating avian influenza viruses closely related to the 1918 virus have pandemic potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Tokiko; Zhong, Gongxun; Russell, Colin A.; Nakajima, Noriko; Hatta, Masato; Hanson, Anthony; McBride, Ryan; Burke, David F.; Takahashi, Kenta; Fukuyama, Satoshi; Tomita, Yuriko; Maher, Eileen A.; Watanabe, Shinji; Imai, Masaki; Neumann, Gabriele; Hasegawa, Hideki; Paulson, James C.; Smith, Derek J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

    2014-01-01

    Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential. PMID:24922572

  7. Health Care Workers’ Risk Perceptions and Willingness to Report for Work during an Influenza Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Dionne

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The ability and willingness of health care workers to report for work during a pandemic are essential to pandemic response. The main contribution of this article is to examine the relationship between risk perception of personal and work activities and willingness to report for work during an influenza pandemic. Data were collected through a quantitative Web-based survey sent to health care workers on the island of Montreal. Respondents were asked about their perception of various risks to obtain index measures of risk perception. A multinomial logit model was applied for the probability estimations, and a factor analysis was conducted to compute risk perception indexes (scores. Risk perception associated with personal and work activities is a significant predictor of intended presence at work during an influenza pandemic. This means that correcting perceptual biases should be a public policy concern. These results have not been previously reported in the literature. Many organizational variables are also significant.

  8. Economic Analysis of HIV/AIDS Pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Nýdrle, Tomáš

    2009-01-01

    HIV/AIDS is a real threat for Sub-Saharan Countries. It increased adult mortality substantially. HIV/AIDS pandemic causes the death of the most productive part of affected population. Human capital passing on to future generations is limited. Low economic performance and income inequality induce higher HIV vulnerability. Contra wise HIV/AIDS has significant negative effect on the welfare of affected population. The sources of pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa are not only social and cultural. He...

  9. Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Prior to Pandemic Spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    equally closely strains of both H1N2 influenza A virus of swine origin and H3N2 influenza A virus of avian origin. The expected matches for each of...Naval Health Research Center Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Virus Prior to Pandemic Spread...10.1128/JCM.01336-10 PMCID: PMC3020883 Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Virus Prior to Pandemic

  10. Short and long-term safety of the 2009 AS03-adjuvanted pandemic vaccine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaston De Serres

    Full Text Available This study assessed the short and the long term safety of the 2009 AS03 adjuvanted monovalent pandemic vaccine through an active web-based electronic surveillance. We compared its safety profile to that of the seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV for 2010-2011.Health care workers (HCW vaccinated in 2009 with the pandemic vaccine (Arepanrix ® from GSK or HCW vaccinated in 2010 with the 2010-2011 TIV were invited to participate in a web-based active surveillance of vaccine safety. They completed two surveys the day-8 survey covered the first 7 days post-vaccination and the day-29 survey covered events occurring 8 to 28 days after vaccination. Those who reported a problem were called by a nurse to obtain details. The main outcome was the occurrence of a new health problem or the worsening of an existing health condition that resulted in a medical consultation or work absenteeism. For the pandemic vaccine, a six-month follow-up for the occurrence of serious adverse events (SAE was conducted. Among the 6242 HCW who received the pandemic vaccine, 440 (7% reported 468 events compared to 328 of the 7645 HCW (4.3% who reported 339 events after the seasonal vaccine. The 2009 pandemic vaccine was associated with significantly more local reactions than the 2010-2011 seasonal vaccine (1% vs. 0.03%, p<0.001. Paresthesia was reported by 7 HCW (0.1% after the pandemic vaccine but by none after the seasonal vaccine. For the pandemic vaccine, no clustering of SAE was found in the 6 month follow-up.The 2009 pandemic vaccine seems to have a good safety profile, similar to the 2010-2011 TIV, with the exception of local reactions. This surveillance was adequately powered to identify AE associated with an excess risk ≥1 per 1000 vaccinations but is insufficient to detect rare AE.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01289418, NCT01318876.

  11. Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

    2016-03-01

    The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  12. Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, VJ; Chen, MI

    2007-01-01

    We used a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) meta-population model, together with scenario, sensitivity, and simulation analyses, to determine stockpiling strategies for neuraminidase inhibitors that would minimize absenteeism among healthcare workers. A pandemic with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.5 resulted in peak absenteeism of 10%. Treatment decreased peak absenteeism to 8%, while 8 weeks' prophylaxis reduced it to 2%. For pandemics with higher R0, peak ab...

  13. A conceptual approach to improving care in pandemics and beyond: severe lung injury centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adalja, Amesh A; Watson, Matthew; Waldhorn, Richard E; Toner, Eric S

    2013-06-01

    The events of the 2009 influenza pandemic sparked discussion regarding the need to optimize delivery of care to those most severely ill. We propose in this conceptual study that a tiered regionalization care system be instituted for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Such system would be a component of national pandemic plans and could also be used in day-to-day operations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The Prioritization of Critical Infrastructure for a Pandemic Outbreak in the United States Working Group

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-16

    stems mostly from a lack of common understanding and oversight mechanism in government or business for what fully constitutes most sectors and sub...and priorities during a pandemic event. This alignment will require substantial executive-level sponsorship, governance, and oversight to ensure...increase in telecommuting during a pandemic. The sector continues to work diligently refining best practices, business continuity plans, and homeland

  15. Alberta family physicians? willingness to work during an influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study

    OpenAIRE

    Dickinson, James A; Bani-Adam, Gisoo; Williamson, Tyler; Berzins, Sandy; Pearce, Craig; Ricketson, Leah; Medd, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Objective Effective pandemic responses rely on frontline healthcare workers continuing to work despite increased risk to themselves. Our objective was to investigate Alberta family physicians willingness to work during an influenza pandemic. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Alberta prior to the fall wave of the H1N1 epidemic. Participants: 192 participants from a random sample of 1000 Alberta family physicians stratified by region. Main Outcome Measures: Willingness to work through di...

  16. Epidemiology of Travel-associated Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Infection in 116 Patients, Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Mukherjee, Pratik; Lim, Poh Lian; Chow, Angela; Barkham, Timothy; Seow, Eillyne; Win, Mar Kyaw; Chua, Arlene; Leo, Yee Sin; Chen, Mark I-Cheng

    2010-01-01

    In June 2009, during Singapore?s pandemic influenza plan containment phase, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was introduced into the country through imported cases. To understand how travel patterns affected the initial outbreak, we examined epidemiologic and travel data for the first 116 case-patients admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, with travel-associated infection. Sixty-one percent and 54% of patients, respectively, met US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and World Health Orga...

  17. REACH: Evaluation Report and Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibieta, Luke

    2016-01-01

    REACH is a targeted reading support programme designed to improve reading accuracy and comprehension in pupils with reading difficulties in Years 7 and 8. It is based on research by the Centre for Reading and Language at York and is delivered by specially trained teaching assistants (TAs). This evaluation tested two REACH interventions, one based…

  18. [Characteristics of cases hospitalized for severe pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Catalonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoy, Pere; Rodés, Anna; Alvarez, Josep; Camps, Neus; Barrabeig, Irene; Sala, María Rosa; Minguell, Sofía; Lafuente, Sarah; Pumarola, Tomás; Domínguez, Angela; Plasència, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    Influenza pandemics may cause more severe cases. The objective was to determine the characteristics of hospitalized severe cases of pandemic influenza in Catalonia and to study risk factors for admission to intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective epidemiologic study of new cases of pandemic influenza hospitalized by their severity between June 2009 and May 2010. Hospitals were asked to declare laboratory confirmed pandemic influenza cases that met the case specific case definition for severe case. A standardized epidemiological survey was conducted to collect information on demographics, clinical characteristics, risk factors, treatment and outcome. Differences between the cases in ICU compared to other severe cases were studied with the odds ratio (OR), which were adjusted using a logistic regression model. We detected total of 773 pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 severe cases; 465 (60.2%) of them had at least one risk factor and the most prevalent were: pregnancy 19 (13%), asthma 87 (12%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 87 (11.4%) and heart disease 80 (10.5%). Required admission to ICU 293 patients (37.9%). Factors associated with ICU admission were obesity BMI>40 (adjusted OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.5) and chronic liver disease (adjusted OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.8). This study confirms the high prevalence of pregnancy, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes and obesity among pandemic influenza severe cases. Obesity acts as a risk factor for ICU admission and should therefore be considered as an indicator for influenza vaccination.

  19. Corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza: a survey of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in Montgomery County, Maryland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, Rissah J; Barnett, Daniel J; Links, Jonathan M

    2008-09-01

    We conducted a survey of corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza among biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in Montgomery County, Maryland, to determine the level of preparedness for this industry and geographic region. The survey, based on the HHS Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist, established whether a company had a preparedness plan specific to pandemic influenza, the contents of its plan, or its reasons for a lack of a plan. A total of 50 companies participated in the survey. Of these, 40 did not have any type of preparedness plan, 3 were drafting plans, 6 had general preparedness plans that could be applied to an influenza pandemic, and only 1 company had a preparedness plan specifically designed to address pandemic influenza. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in this geographic region are currently not well prepared for pandemic influenza. Public health officials should offer more help, possibly in the form of a model small business preparedness plan, and collaboration between companies should be encouraged to foster sharing of preparedness plans.

  20. Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

    2014-05-01

    During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

  1. The database for reaching experiments and models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Walker

    Full Text Available Reaching is one of the central experimental paradigms in the field of motor control, and many computational models of reaching have been published. While most of these models try to explain subject data (such as movement kinematics, reaching performance, forces, etc. from only a single experiment, distinct experiments often share experimental conditions and record similar kinematics. This suggests that reaching models could be applied to (and falsified by multiple experiments. However, using multiple datasets is difficult because experimental data formats vary widely. Standardizing data formats promises to enable scientists to test model predictions against many experiments and to compare experimental results across labs. Here we report on the development of a new resource available to scientists: a database of reaching called the Database for Reaching Experiments And Models (DREAM. DREAM collects both experimental datasets and models and facilitates their comparison by standardizing formats. The DREAM project promises to be useful for experimentalists who want to understand how their data relates to models, for modelers who want to test their theories, and for educators who want to help students better understand reaching experiments, models, and data analysis.

  2. Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection: Evidence of competitive advantage of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

    2009-08-24

    On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains.

  3. Enhancing US Operational Reach in Southeast Asia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hitchcock, David

    2003-01-01

    .... While this treat continues to exist, the US Pacific Command (PACOM) must also pursue a neat term methodology to expand its operational reach and ability to respond to contingencies throughout the East Asian littoral, especially within Southeast Asia...

  4. Reaching the Overlooked Student in Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esslinger, Keri; Esslinger, Travis; Bagshaw, Jarad

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the use of live action role-playing, or "LARPing," as a non-traditional activity that has the potential to reach students who are not interested in traditional physical education.

  5. Compact muon solenoid magnet reaches full field

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Scientist of the U.S. Department of Energy in Fermilab and collaborators of the US/CMS project announced that the world's largest superconducting solenoid magnet has reached full field in tests at CERN. (1 apge)

  6. PROPORTIONS AND HUMAN SCALE IN DAMASCENE COURTYARD HOUSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Salim Ferwati

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Interior designers, architects, landscape architects, and even urban designers, agree that environment, as a form of non-verbal communication means, has a symbolic dimension to it. As for its aesthetic dimension, it seems that beauty is related to a certain proportion, partially and as a whole. Suitable proportion leaves a good impression upon the beholders, especially when it matches human proportion. That in fact was the underlining belief of LeCorbusier, according to which he developed his Modular concept. The study searches for a modular, or proportion, system that governs the design of Damascene traditional house. By geometrical and mathematical examinations of 28 traditional houses, it was found that a certain proportional relationship existed; however, these proportional relationships were not fixed ones. The study relied on analyzing the Iwan elevation as well as the inner courtyard proportion in relation to the building area. Charts, diagrams and tables were produced to summarize the results.

  7. Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Using Historical Examples to Inform the Department of Defense’s Response to the Next Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    be cured , or effectively treated, the best way to stop the spread of the 1918 pandemic was through quarantine. Quarantine was a common protective... absentee rate of over 850. The company barely maintained the capacity to service emergency calls, and all other customers went without access to

  8. Vaccines for pandemic influenza. The history of our current vaccines, their limitations and the requirements to deal with a pandemic threat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampson, Alan W

    2008-06-01

    Fears of a potential pandemic due to A(H5N1) viruses have focussed new attention on our current vaccines, their shortcomings, and concerns regarding global vaccine supply in a pandemic. The bulk of current vaccines are inactivated split virus vaccines produced from egg-grown virus and have only modest improvements compared with those first introduced over 60 years ago. Splitting, which was introduced some years ago to reduce reactogenicity, also reduces the immunogenicity of vaccines in immunologically naïve recipients. The A(H5N1) viruses have been found poorly immunogenic and present other challenges for vaccine producers which further exacerbate an already limited global production capacity. There have been some recent improvements in vaccine production methods and improvements to immunogenicity by the development of new adjuvants, however, these still fall short of providing timely supplies of vaccine for all in the face of a pandemic. New approaches to influenza vaccines which might fulfil the demands of a pandemic situation are under evaluation, however, these remain some distance from clinical reality and face significant regulatory hurdles.

  9. Zika threatens to become a huge worldwide pandemic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alcides Troncoso

    2016-01-01

    The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika virus (as well as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever) represents a high risk for global transmission. This virus comes from Africa, the Zika forest in Uganda, where it was discovered in 1947 in a rhesus monkey. In May 2015, the first local cases were recorded in Brazil, surpassing 1.5 million cases in December of the same year. By March 2016, local transmission of Zika was recognized in 34 countries. Its clinical condition is similar to dengue febrile illness, although milder. The final geographical distribution area is constantly expanding. Recently, it has been associated with cases of Guillain-Barr ´e syndrome in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Venezuela and Suriname. Microcephaly was documented in Brazil. This article discusses some factors that contributed to the spread of Zika virus in South America. Climate change associated with the events of the phenomenon of“El Niño”is also analyzed. The biggest concern is how quickly Zika is spreading around the world and that it could be far more dangerous than previously thought. Zika virus infection, by its explosive potential, has every chance of becoming a global pandemic.

  10. Zika threatens to become a huge worldwide pandemic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Alcides Troncoso

    2016-01-01

    The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika virus(as well as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever) represents a high risk for global transmission. This virus comes from Africa, the Zika forest in Uganda, where it was discovered in 1947 in a rhesus monkey. In May 2015, the first local cases were recorded in Brazil, surpassing 1.5 million cases in December of the same year. By March 2016, local transmission of Zika was recognized in 34 countries. Its clinical condition is similar to dengue febrile illness, although milder.The final geographical distribution area is constantly expanding. Recently, it has been associated with cases of Guillain-Barre′ syndrome in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador,Venezuela and Suriname. Microcephaly was documented in Brazil. This article discusses some factors that contributed to the spread of Zika virus in South America. Climate change associated with the events of the phenomenon of "El Ni?o" is also analyzed. The biggest concern is how quickly Zika is spreading around the world and that it could be far more dangerous than previously thought. Zika virus infection, by its explosive potential,has every chance of becoming a global pandemic.

  11. Epidemiological Characteristics of HIV/AIDS Pandemic in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corina-Liana MANIU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: A comparative research regarding the occurrence and evolution patterns of the HIV-AIDS epidemic between Romania and the major areas (Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA and the USA, respectively in order to establish the current trends of the diseases and the specific prognosis. Material and Methods: The research represents a systematic study over the entire period, of the HIV-AIDS pandemic from 1981-2008, based on specialty literature published in English or Romanian. In addition to theses, published articles, materials presented at conferences and congresses, reports and information from the main governmental and international organizations such as WHO, CDC, UNAIDS have been consulted. Results: Romania was the first country in Central and Eastern Europe to announce the diagnosis of an AIDS case in 1985. Since then, the prevalence per 100000 population of HIV infection cases, has demonstrated an ascending trend from 0.27 in 1992 to 19.67 in 2007. HIV-AIDS infection in children from Romania is unique worldwide. Therefore, from the cumulative total of 7606 AIDS pediatric cases between 1989-2007, 4885 have had a nosocomial transmission. The mother-to-child transmission is well controlled in Romania, similar to the USA. High-risk groups (injecting drug users or men having sex with men, represent a small percentage among the Romanian HIV-AIDS and SSA cases, compared to the USA. Romania, similar to the rest of Europe and USA, has not experienced in general population.

  12. Safeguarding against substandard/counterfeit drugs: mitigating a macroeconomic pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheimer, Albert I; Norris, Jeremiah

    2009-03-01

    Counterfeiting and the sale of substandard pharmaceutical products can no longer be ignored. At 10% of global trade, counterfeiting is affecting many countries, causing serious downstream expenses and resource shortages. To describe the nature and impact of drug product counterfeiting and substandard product sale and to present strategies that may have value in ameliorating these phenomena. A literature review was conducted, supplemented by interviews of key leaders/experts in the field and the search of relevant web sites. All of the data were combined, integrated, and coordinated to present the complete picture of this problem. In addition to known corruption in some of the least developed countries, the trail through developed countries was detected. This report identifies means to detect faulty products and describes efforts toward resisting and ending these corrupt practices. Counterfeit drugs, if not stopped, can be responsible for a macroeconomic pandemic where major portions of some populations may be too ill to work and where the health sector resources are completely overwhelmed, as with the case of HIV/AIDS.

  13. Zika threatens to become a huge worldwide pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alcides Troncoso

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Aedes aegypti mosquito which transmits Zika virus (as well as dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever represents a high risk for global transmission. This virus comes from Africa, the Zika forest in Uganda, where it was discovered in 1947 in a rhesus monkey. In May 2015, the first local cases were recorded in Brazil, surpassing 1.5 million cases in December of the same year. By March 2016, local transmission of Zika was recognized in 34 countries. Its clinical condition is similar to dengue febrile illness, although milder. The final geographical distribution area is constantly expanding. Recently, it has been associated with cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome in Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Venezuela and Suriname. Microcephaly was documented in Brazil. This article discusses some factors that contributed to the spread of Zika virus in South America. Climate change associated with the events of the phenomenon of “El Niño” is also analyzed. The biggest concern is how quickly Zika is spreading around the world and that it could be far more dangerous than previously thought. Zika virus infection, by its explosive potential, has every chance of becoming a global pandemic.

  14. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Involved in Severe Acute Respiratory Disease in Northern Italy during the Pandemic and Postpandemic Period (2009–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Pariani

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since 2009 pandemic, international health authorities recommended monitoring severe and complicated cases of respiratory disease, that is, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. We evaluated the proportion of SARI/ARDS cases and deaths due to influenza A(H1N1pdm09 infection and the impact of other respiratory viruses during pandemic and postpandemic period (2009–2011 in northern Italy; additionally we searched for unknown viruses in those cases for which diagnosis remained negative. 206 respiratory samples were collected from SARI/ARDS cases and analyzed by real-time RT-PCR/PCR to investigate influenza viruses and other common respiratory pathogens; also, a virus discovery technique (VIDISCA-454 was applied on those samples tested negative to all pathogens. Influenza A(H1N1pdm09 virus was detected in 58.3% of specimens, with a case fatality rate of 11.3%. The impact of other respiratory viruses was 19.4%, and the most commonly detected viruses were human rhinovirus/enterovirus and influenza A(H3N2. VIDISCA-454 enabled the identification of one previously undiagnosed measles infection. Nearly 22% of SARI/ARDS cases did not obtain a definite diagnosis. In clinical practice, great efforts should be dedicated to improving the diagnosis of severe respiratory disease; the introduction of innovative molecular technologies, as VIDISCA-454, will certainly help in reducing such “diagnostic gap.”

  15. Knowledge, motivation, and attitudes of Hungarian family physicians toward pandemic influenza vaccination in the 2009/10 influenza season: questionnaire study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rurik, Imre; Langmár, Zoltán; Márton, Hajnalka; Kovács, Eszter; Szigethy, Endre; Ilyés, István

    2011-04-15

    To evaluate the knowledge, motivation, and attitudes of Hungarian family physicians toward pandemic influenza vaccination in the 2009/10 influenza season. A questionnaire with 20 questions was developed and sent to 232 family physicians in 3 largest Hungarian cities: Budapest, Debrecen, and Miskolc. The study was conducted in December 2009 and January 2010. A hundred and ninety eight (85%) physicians answered the questionnaire adequately. Respondents believed that the influenza outbreak represented less of a threat to their practices than to Hungary or the world as a whole. They mostly agreed that vaccination was important and were frequently dissatisfied with the support from health authorities. The proportion of vaccinated patients ranged between 2% and 53%, without differences according to geographical region, age, sex, and duration of physicians' employment in family practice. Physicians who were satisfied with the payment for procedures and underwent vaccination themselves were more active in vaccination. Health authorities should provide clear and evidence-based professional support to family physicians and should encourage them to get vaccinated against pandemic influenza, while insurance funds have to establish appropriate reimbursement system.

  16. PD-L1 Expression Induced by the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1 Virus Impairs the Human T Cell Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuriban Valero-Pacheco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available PD-L1 expression plays a critical role in the impairment of T cell responses during chronic infections; however, the expression of PD-L1 on T cells during acute viral infections, particularly during the pandemic influenza virus (A(H1N1pdm09, and its effects on the T cell response have not been widely explored. We found that A(H1N1pdm09 virus induced PD-L1 expression on human dendritic cells (DCs and T cells, as well as PD-1 expression on T cells. PD-L1 expression impaired the T cell response against A(H1N1pdm09 by promoting CD8+ T cell death and reducing cytokine production. Furthermore, we found increased PD-L1 expression on DCs and T cells from influenza-infected patients from the first and second 2009 pandemic waves in Mexico City. PD-L1 expression on CD8+ T cells correlated inversely with T cell proportions in patients infected with A(H1N1pdm09. Therefore, PD-L1 expression on DCs and T cells could be associated with an impaired T cell response during acute infection with A(H1N1pdm09 virus.

  17. Epidemiological aspects of influenza A related to climatic conditions during and after a pandemic period in the city of Salvador, northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosangela de Castro Silva

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available During the influenza pandemic of 2009, the A(H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2 seasonal and influenza B viruses were observed to be co-circulating with other respiratory viruses. To observe the epidemiological pattern of the influenza virus between May 2009-August 2011, 467 nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected from children less than five years of age in the city of Salvador. In addition, data on weather conditions were obtained. Indirect immunofluorescence, real-time transcription reverse polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, and sequencing assays were performed for influenza virus detection. Of all 467 samples, 34 (7% specimens were positive for influenza A and of these, viral characterisation identified Flu A/H3N2 in 25/34 (74% and A(H1N1pdm09 in 9/34 (26%. Influenza B accounted for a small proportion (0.8% and the other respiratory viruses for 27.2% (127/467. No deaths were registered and no pattern of seasonality or expected climatic conditions could be established. These observations are important for predicting the evolution of epidemics and in implementing future anti-pandemic measures.

  18. Factors associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1 vaccination acceptance among university students from India during the post-pandemic phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thejaswini Venkatesh

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There was a low adherence to influenza A (H1N1 vaccination program among university students and health care workers during the pandemic influenza in many parts of the world. Vaccination of high risk individuals is one of the recommendations of World Health Organization during the post-pandemic period. It is not documented about the student's knowledge, attitude and willingness to accept H1N1 vaccination during the post-pandemic period. We aimed to analyze the student's knowledge, attitude and willingness to accept H1N1 vaccination during the post-pandemic period in India. Methods Vaccine against H1N1 was made available to the students of Vellore Institute of Technology, India from September 2010. The data are based on a cross-sectional study conducted during October 2010 to January 2011 using a self-administered questionnaire with a representative sample of the student population (N = 802. Results Of the 802 respondents, only 102/802 (12.7% had been vaccinated and 105/802 (13% planned to do so in the future, while 595/802 (74% would probably or definitely not get vaccinated in the future. The highest coverage was among the female (65/102, 63.7% and non-compliance was higher among men in the group (384/595; 64.5% (p Conclusions Our study shows that the vaccination coverage among university students remains very low in the post-pandemic period and doubts about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine are key elements in their rejection. Our results indicate a need to provide accessible information about the vaccine safety by scientific authorities and fill gaps and confusions in this regard.

  19. ICU-treated influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 infections more severe post pandemic than during 2009 pandemic: a retrospective analysis

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    Pekka Ylipalosaari

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We compared in a single mixed intensive care unit (ICU patients with influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 between pandemic and postpandemic periods. Methods Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in 2009–2016. Data are expressed as median (25th–75th percentile or number (percentile. Results Seventy-six influenza A(H1N1 pdm09 patients were admitted to the ICU: 16 during the pandemic period and 60 during the postpandemic period. Postpandemic patients were significantly older (60 years vs. 43 years, p < 0.001 and less likely to have epilepsy or other neurological diseases compared with pandemic patients (5 [8.3%] vs. 6 [38%], respectively; p = 0.009. Postpandemic patients were more likely than pandemic patients to have cardiovascular disease (24 [40%] vs. 1 [6%], respectively; p = 0.015, and they had higher scores on APACHE II (17 [13–22] vs. 14 [10–17], p = 0.002 and SAPS II (40 [31–51] vs. 31 [25–35], p = 0.002 upon admission to the ICU. Postpandemic patients had higher maximal SOFA score (9 [5–12] vs. 5 [4–9], respectively; p = 0.03 during their ICU stay. Postpandemic patients had more often septic shock (40 [66.7%] vs. 8 [50.0%], p = 0.042, and longer median hospital stays (15.0 vs. 8.0 days, respectively; p = 0.006. During 2015–2016, only 18% of the ICU- treated patients had received seasonal influenza vaccination. Conclusions Postpandemic ICU-treated A(H1N1 pdm09 influenza patients were older and developed more often septic shock and had longer hospital stays than influenza patients during the 2009 pandemic.

  20. Do working environment interventions reach shift workers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Garde, Anne Helene; Clausen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Shift workers are exposed to more physical and psychosocial stressors in the working environment as compared to day workers. Despite the need for targeted prevention, it is likely that workplace interventions less frequently reach shift workers. The aim was therefore to investigate whether the reach of workplace interventions varied between shift workers and day workers and whether such differences could be explained by the quality of leadership exhibited at different times of the day. We used questionnaire data from 5361 female care workers in the Danish eldercare sector. The questions concerned usual working hours, quality of leadership, and self-reported implementation of workplace activities aimed at stress reduction, reorganization of the working hours, and participation in improvements of working procedures or qualifications. Compared with day workers, shift workers were less likely to be reached by workplace interventions. For example, night workers less frequently reported that they had got more flexibility (OR 0.5; 95 % CI 0.3-0.7) or that they had participated in improvements of the working procedures (OR 0.6; 95 % CI 0.5-0.8). Quality of leadership to some extent explained the lack of reach of interventions especially among fixed evening workers. In the light of the evidence of shift workers' stressful working conditions, we suggest that future studies focus on the generalizability of results of the present study and on how to reach this group and meet their needs when designing and implementing workplace interventions.

  1. Information technology systems for critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic: a review of current systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandayrel, Kristofer; Lapinsky, Stephen; Christian, Michael

    2013-06-01

    To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

  2. Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

    2013-11-01

    Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  3. Pressure control valve using proportional electro-magnetic solenoid actuator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, So Nam; Ham, Young Bog; Park, Pyoung Won

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental characteristics of electro-hydraulic proportional pressure control valve. In this study, poppet and valve body which are assembled into the proportional solenoid were designed and manufactured. The constant force characteristics of proportional solenoid actuator in the control region should be independent of the plunger position in order to be used to control the valve position in the fluid flow control system. The stroke-force characteristics of the proportional solenoid actuator is determined by the shape (or parameters) of the control cone. In this paper, steady state and transient characteristics of the solenoid actuator for electro-hydraulic proportional valve are analyzed using finite element method and it is confirmed that the proportional solenoid actuator has a constant attraction force in the control region independently on the stroke position. The effects of the parameters such as control cone length, thickness and taper length are also discussed

  4. Swine influenza and vaccines: an alternative approach for decision making about pandemic prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basili, Marcello; Ferrini, Silvia; Montomoli, Emanuele

    2013-08-01

    During the global pandemic of A/H1N1/California/07/2009 (A/H1N1/Cal) influenza, many governments signed contracts with vaccine producers for a universal influenza immunization program and bought hundreds of millions of vaccines doses. We argue that, as Health Ministers assumed the occurrence of the worst possible scenario (generalized pandemic influenza) and followed the strong version of the Precautionary Principle, they undervalued the possibility of mild or weak pandemic wave. An alternative decision rule, based on the non-extensive entropy principle, is introduced, and a different Precautionary Principle characterization is applied. This approach values extreme negative results (catastrophic events) in a different way and predicts more plausible and mild events. It introduces less pessimistic forecasts in the case of uncertain influenza pandemic outbreaks. A simplified application is presented using seasonal data of morbidity and severity among Italian children influenza-like illness for the period 2003-10. Established literature results predict an average attack rate of not less than 15% for the next pandemic influenza [Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: implications for setting priorities for interventions. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5:659-71; Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Implications for Setting Priorities for Intervention. Background paper. Atlanta, GA: CDC, 1999. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm (7 January 2011, date last accessed))]. The strong version of the Precautionary Principle would suggest using this prediction for vaccination campaigns. On the contrary, the non-extensive maximum entropy principle predicts a lower attack rate, which induces a 20% saving in public funding for vaccines doses. The need for an effective influenza pandemic prevention program, coupled with an efficient use of public

  5. Comparing the regional epidemiology of the cassava mosaic and cassava brown streak virus pandemics in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, J P; Jeremiah, S C; Obiero, H M; Maruthi, M N; Ndyetabula, I; Okao-Okuja, G; Bouwmeester, H; Bigirimana, S; Tata-Hangy, W; Gashaka, G; Mkamilo, G; Alicai, T; Lava Kumar, P

    2011-08-01

    The rapid geographical expansion of the cassava mosaic disease (CMD) pandemic, caused by cassava mosaic geminiviruses, has devastated cassava crops in 12 countries of East and Central Africa since the late 1980s. Region-level surveys have revealed a continuing pattern of annual spread westward and southward along a contiguous 'front'. More recently, outbreaks of cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) were reported from Uganda and other parts of East Africa that had been hitherto unaffected by the disease. Recent survey data reveal several significant contrasts between the regional epidemiology of these two pandemics: (i) severe CMD radiates out from an initial centre of origin, whilst CBSD seems to be spreading from independent 'hot-spots'; (ii) the severe CMD pandemic has arisen from recombination and synergy between virus species, whilst the CBSD pandemic seems to be a 'new encounter' situation between host and pathogen; (iii) CMD pandemic spread has been tightly linked with the appearance of super-abundant Bemisia tabaci whitefly vector populations, in contrast to CBSD, where outbreaks have occurred 3-12 years after whitefly population increases; (iv) the CMGs causing CMD are transmitted in a persistent manner, whilst the two cassava brown streak viruses appear to be semi-persistently transmitted; and (v) different patterns of symptom expression mean that phytosanitary measures could be implemented easily for CMD but have limited effectiveness, whereas similar measures are difficult to apply for CBSD but are potentially very effective. An important similarity between the pandemics is that the viruses occurring in pandemic-affected areas are also found elsewhere, indicating that contrary to earlier published conclusions, the viruses per se are unlikely to be the key factors driving the two pandemics. A diagrammatic representation illustrates the temporal relationship between B. tabaci abundance and changing incidences of both CMD and CBSD in the Great Lakes region

  6. Memory immune responses against pandemic (H1N1 2009 influenza virus induced by a whole particle vaccine in cynomolgus monkeys carrying Mafa-A1*052:02.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiko Arikata

    Full Text Available We made an H1N1 vaccine candidate from a virus library consisting of 144 ( = 16 HA×9 NA non-pathogenic influenza A viruses and examined its protective effects against a pandemic (2009 H1N1 strain using immunologically naïve cynomolgus macaques to exclude preexisting immunity and to employ a preclinical study since preexisting immunity in humans previously vaccinated or infected with influenza virus might make comparison of vaccine efficacy difficult. Furthermore, macaques carrying a major histocompatibility complex class I molecule, Mafa-A1*052:02, were used to analyze peptide-specific CD8(+ T cell responses. Sera of macaques immunized with an inactivated whole particle formulation without addition of an adjuvant showed higher neutralization titers against the vaccine strain A/Hokkaido/2/1981 (H1N1 than did sera of macaques immunized with a split formulation. Neutralization activities against the pandemic strain A/Narita/1/2009 (H1N1 in sera of macaques immunized twice with the split vaccine reached levels similar to those in sera of macaques immunized once with the whole particle vaccine. After inoculation with the pandemic virus, the virus was detected in nasal samples of unvaccinated macaques for 6 days after infection and for 2.67 days and 5.33 days on average in macaques vaccinated with the whole particle vaccine and the split vaccine, respectively. After the challenge infection, recall neutralizing antibody responses against the pandemic virus and CD8(+ T cell responses specific for nucleoprotein peptide NP262-270 bound to Mafa-A1*052:02 in macaques vaccinated with the whole particle vaccine were observed more promptly or more vigorously than those in macaques vaccinated with the split vaccine. These findings demonstrated that the vaccine derived from our virus library was effective for pandemic virus infection in macaques and that the whole particle vaccine conferred more effective memory and broader cross-reactive immune responses

  7. Development of extruded resistive plastic tubes for proportional chamber cathodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, K.

    1982-01-01

    Carbon mixed plastic tubes with resistivity of 10 3 approx. 10 4 Ωcm have been molded with an extrusion method and used for the d.c. cathode of a proportional counter and a multi-wire proportional chamber. The signal by gas multiplication was picked up from a strip r.f. cathode set outside the tube. The characteristics of the counter in the proportional and limited streamer modes have been studied

  8. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce

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    Crampton Peter

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. Methods The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners. Results At its peak (week 4 the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88% would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%, and then premature death (4%. Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64% of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%, hospitalisation (4%, and then premature death (1%. Conclusion Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

  9. The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

    2005-08-11

    Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88%) would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%), and then premature death (4%). Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64%) of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%), hospitalisation (4%), and then premature death (1%). Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

  10. Multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis of 7th pandemic Vibrio cholerae

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    Lam Connie

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Seven pandemics of cholera have been recorded since 1817, with the current and ongoing pandemic affecting almost every continent. Cholera remains endemic in developing countries and is still a significant public health issue. In this study we use multilocus variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs analysis (MLVA to discriminate between isolates of the 7th pandemic clone of Vibrio cholerae. Results MLVA of six VNTRs selected from previously published data distinguished 66 V. cholerae isolates collected between 1961–1999 into 60 unique MLVA profiles. Only 4 MLVA profiles consisted of more than 2 isolates. The discriminatory power was 0.995. Phylogenetic analysis showed that, except for the closely related profiles, the relationships derived from MLVA profiles were in conflict with that inferred from Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP typing. The six SNP groups share consensus VNTR patterns and two SNP groups contained isolates which differed by only one VNTR locus. Conclusions MLVA is highly discriminatory in differentiating 7th pandemic V. cholerae isolates and MLVA data was most useful in resolving the genetic relationships among isolates within groups previously defined by SNPs. Thus MLVA is best used in conjunction with SNP typing in order to best determine the evolutionary relationships among the 7th pandemic V. cholerae isolates and for longer term epidemiological typing.

  11. Economic Evaluation of Individual School Closure Strategies: The Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.

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    Zoie Shui-Yee Wong

    Full Text Available School closures as a means of containing the spread of disease have received considerable attention from the public health community. Although they have been implemented during previous pandemics, the epidemiological and economic effects of the closure of individual schools remain unclear.This study used data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong to develop a simulation model of an influenza pandemic with a localised population structure to provide scientific justifications for and economic evaluations of individual-level school closure strategies.The estimated cost of the study's baseline scenario was USD330 million. We found that the individual school closure strategies that involved all types of schools and those that used a lower threshold to trigger school closures had the best performance. The best scenario resulted in an 80% decrease in the number of cases (i.e., prevention of about 830,000 cases, and the cost per case prevented by this intervention was USD1,145; thus, the total cost was USD1.28 billion.This study predicts the effects of individual school closure strategies on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. Further research could determine optimal strategies that combine various system-wide and district-wide school closures with individual school triggers across types of schools. The effects of different closure triggers at different phases of a pandemic should also be examined.

  12. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  13. Pandemic Influenza A (N1H1: what to learn from it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Rolim Neumann

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Influenza pandemics are natural events that occur periodically. The pandemic’s current agent, Influenza virus A (H1N1 was first identified in Mexico in April 2009, spread rapidly and has caused deaths mainly among young adults. The objective of this manuscript is to present the biological aspects involved in the outbreak of this pandemic, as well as population-control strategies for pandemic influenza. In addition to the population mitigation measures, whose efficacy has been described by theoretical models, today we also have drugs with efficacy valued in some patient groups. These drugs reduce moderately the duration and severity of symptoms, as long as they are started early. This pandemic, with a large number of cases, but caused by a virus of low lethality, could be managed preferably in Units of Primary Health Care, that would treat the wild cases and forward the severe ones to the hospitals. However, what occurred in numerous cities was the burden on emergency care with triage situations, forcing managers to improvise field hospitals, tents and containers to house the extra work in services that were already at the limit of physical infrastructure and human resources. Pandemic Influenza exposed the fragility of our network of primary care and lack of ICU beds.

  14. Influenza mortality in the United States, 2009 pandemic: burden, timing and age distribution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann M Nguyen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In April 2009, the most recent pandemic of influenza A began. We present the first estimates of pandemic mortality based on the newly-released final data on deaths in 2009 and 2010 in the United States. METHODS: We obtained data on influenza and pneumonia deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS. Age- and sex-specific death rates, and age-standardized death rates, were calculated. Using negative binomial Serfling-type methods, excess mortality was calculated separately by sex and age groups. RESULTS: In many age groups, observed pneumonia and influenza cause-specific mortality rates in October and November 2009 broke month-specific records since 1959 when the current series of detailed US mortality data began. Compared to the typical pattern of seasonal flu deaths, the 2009 pandemic age-specific mortality, as well as influenza-attributable (excess mortality, skewed much younger. We estimate 2,634 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009-10; the excess death rate in 2009 was 0.79 per 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic influenza mortality skews younger than seasonal influenza. This can be explained by a protective effect due to antigenic cycling. When older cohorts have been previously exposed to a similar antigen, immune memory results in lower death rates at older ages. Age-targeted vaccination of younger people should be considered in future pandemics.

  15. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  16. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpka, Toomas; Eriksson, Henrik; Strömgren, Magnus; Eriksson, Olle; Ekberg, Joakim; Grimvall, Anders; Nyce, James; Gursky, Elin; Holm, Einar

    2010-01-01

    The global spread of a novel A (H1N1) influenza virus in 2009 has highlighted the possibility of a devastating pandemic similar to the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1917–1918. Responding to such pandemics requires careful planning for the early phases where there is no availability of pandemic vaccine. We set out to compute a Neighborhood Influenza Susceptibility Index (NISI) describing the vulnerability of local communities of different geo-socio-physical structure to a pandemic influenza outbreak. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model of Linköping municipality (pop. 136,240) in Sweden, and employed an ontology-modeling tool to define simulation models and transmission settings. We found considerable differences in NISI between neighborhoods corresponding to primary care areas with regard to early progress of the outbreak, as well as in terms of the total accumulated share of infected residents counted after the outbreak. The NISI can be used in local preparations of physical response measures during pandemics. PMID:21347087

  18. Just-in-time training of dental responders in a simulated pandemic immunization response exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colvard, Michael D; Hirst, Jeremy L; Vesper, Benjamin J; DeTella, George E; Tsagalis, Mila P; Roberg, Mary J; Peters, David E; Wallace, Jimmy D; James, James J

    2014-06-01

    The reauthorization of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act in 2013 incorporated the dental profession and dental professionals into the federal legislation governing public health response to pandemics and all-hazard situations. Work is now necessary to expand the processes needed to incorporate and train oral health care professionals into pandemic and all-hazard response events. A just-in-time (JIT) training exercise and immunization drill using an ex vivo porcine model system was conducted to demonstrate the rapidity to which dental professionals can respond to a pandemic influenza scenario. Medical history documentation, vaccination procedures, and patient throughput and error rates of 15 dental responders were evaluated by trained nursing staff and emergency response personnel. The average throughput (22.33/hr) and medical error rates (7 of 335; 2.08%) of the dental responders were similar to those found in analogous influenza mass vaccination clinics previously conducted using certified public health nurses. The dental responder immunization drill validated the capacity and capability of dental professionals to function as a valuable immunization resource. The ex vivo porcine model system used for JIT training can serve as a simple and inexpensive training tool to update pandemic responders' immunization techniques and procedures supporting inoculation protocols.

  19. Multiwire proportional chamber for Moessbauer spectroscopy: development and results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, M.S. da.

    1985-12-01

    A new Multiwere proportional Chamber designed for Moessbauer Spectroscopy is presented. This detector allows transmission backscattering experiments using either photons or electrons. The Moessbauer data acquisition system, partially developed for this work is described. A simple method for determining the frontier between true proportional and semi-proportional regions of operation in gaseous detectors is proposed. The study of the tertiary gas mixture He-Ar-CH 4 leads to a straight forward way of energy calibration of the electron spectra. Moessbauer spectra using Fe-57 source are presented. In particular those obtained with backsattered electrons show the feasibility of depth selective analysis with gaseous proportional counters. (author) [pt

  20. Do WHO guidelines on pandemic influenza follow biomedical ethics? : E-letter responses to Martin Enserink and Jocelyn Kaiser : Devilish dilemmas surround pandemic flu vaccine : Science 2009; 324: 702-705

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterson, M.B.

    2009-01-01

    If and when a pandemic of H1N1 swine flu hits, vaccines might be the world's best hope for softening the blow. But major uncertainties cloud the prospects for vaccines against the new strain. No pandemic vaccine yet exists, and it is unclear how much vaccine would have to be available, and by what

  1. Estimating infection attack rates and severity in real time during an influenza pandemic: analysis of serial cross-sectional serologic surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph T Wu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In an emerging influenza pandemic, estimating severity (the probability of a severe outcome, such as hospitalization, if infected is a public health priority. As many influenza infections are subclinical, sero-surveillance is needed to allow reliable real-time estimates of infection attack rate (IAR and severity.We tested 14,766 sera collected during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong using viral microneutralization. We estimated IAR and infection-hospitalization probability (IHP from the serial cross-sectional serologic data and hospitalization data. Had our serologic data been available weekly in real time, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates 1 wk after, 1-2 wk before, and 3 wk after epidemic peak for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-29 y, and 30-59 y. The ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence, which decreased with age, was a major determinant for the timeliness of reliable estimates. If we began sero-surveillance 3 wk after community transmission was confirmed, with 150, 350, and 500 specimens per week for individuals aged 5-14 y, 15-19 y, and 20-29 y, respectively, we would have obtained reliable IHP estimates for these age groups 4 wk before the peak. For 30-59 y olds, even 800 specimens per week would not have generated reliable estimates until the peak because the ratio of IAR to pre-existing seroprevalence for this age group was low. The performance of serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance substantially deteriorates if test specificity is not near 100% or pre-existing seroprevalence is not near zero. These potential limitations could be mitigated by choosing a higher titer cutoff for seropositivity. If the epidemic doubling time is longer than 6 d, then serial cross-sectional sero-surveillance with 300 specimens per week would yield reliable estimates when IAR reaches around 6%-10%.Serial cross-sectional serologic data together with clinical surveillance data can allow reliable real-time estimates of IAR and

  2. Guiding Warfare to Reach Sustainable Peace

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestenskov, David; Drewes, Line

    The conference report Guiding Warfare to Reach Sustainable Peace constitutes the primary outcome of the conference It is based on excerpts from the conference presenters and workshop discussions. Furthermore, the report contains policy recommendations and key findings, with the ambition of develo......The conference report Guiding Warfare to Reach Sustainable Peace constitutes the primary outcome of the conference It is based on excerpts from the conference presenters and workshop discussions. Furthermore, the report contains policy recommendations and key findings, with the ambition...... of developing best practices in the education and implementation of IHL in capacity building of security forces....

  3. Do working environment interventions reach shift workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Garde, Anne Helene

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: Shift workers are exposed to more physical and psychosocial stressors in the working environment as compared to day workers. Despite the need for targeted prevention, it is likely that workplace interventions less frequently reach shift workers. The aim was therefore to investigate whether...... the reach of workplace interventions varied between shift workers and day workers and whether such differences could be explained by the quality of leadership exhibited at different times of the day. METHODS: We used questionnaire data from 5361 female care workers in the Danish eldercare sector...

  4. Determination of preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 based on protection motivation theory among female high school students in Isfahan, Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Yarmohammadi, Parastoo; Sharifabad, Mohammad Ali Morowati; Rahaei, Zohreh

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic has recently threatened the health of world's population more than ever. Non-pharmaceutical measures are important to prevent the spread of influenza A/H1N1 and to prevent a pandemic. Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing preventive behavioral. This study reports on predictors of students’ preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 using variables based on the protection motivation theory (PMT)...

  5. The development of antiretroviral therapy and its impact on the HIV-1/AIDS pandemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder, Samuel

    2010-01-01

    infections in many parts of the world. All of these factors make refining current therapies and developing new therapeutic paradigms essential priorities, topics covered in articles within this special issue of Antiviral Research. Fortunately, there are exciting new insights into the biology of HIV-1, its interaction with cellular resistance factors, and novel points of attack for future therapies. Moreover, it is a short journey from basic research to public health benefit around the world. The current science will lead to new therapeutic strategies with far-reaching implications in the HIV-1/AIDS pandemic. This article forms part of a special issue of Antiviral Research marking the 25th anniversary of antiretroviral drug discovery and development, Vol. 85, issue 1, 2010. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Reaching Reluctant Students: Insights from Torey Hayden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlowe, Mike

    1999-01-01

    Illustrates principles of reaching students who fight or avoid adults by using examples drawn from the writings of Torey Hayden. Presents ten concepts that can serve as guidelines for building relationships with resistant children, and gives excerpts from Hayden's works to illustrate each concept. Demonstrates how books provide teachers with…

  7. ATLAS Barrel Toroid magnet reached nominal field

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

     On 9 November the barrel toroid magnet reached its nominal field of 4 teslas, with an electrical current of 21 000 amperes (21 kA) passing through the eight superconducting coils as shown on this graph

  8. An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Colin J; Dougherty, Eric R; Getz, Wayne

    2016-08-01

    The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a severe threat to human health. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain. Moreover, many studies rely on its similarity to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown ecological comparability. Here we compile a comprehensive spatially-explicit occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys based in its native range, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the native ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to either genetic shifts between strains, or El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining autochthonous non-sexual transmission to the tropics without significant evolutionary change. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with three major vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, our models indicate Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy, and public fear of a vector-borne Zika epidemic in the mainland United States is potentially informed by biased or limited scientific knowledge. With recent sexual transmission of the virus globally, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne transmission route of the pathogen, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media

  9. Diabetes type 2 pandemic in 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginter, E; Simko, V

    2010-01-01

    In the second half of the 20th century it became obvious that a relentless increase in diabetes type 2 (DM) affecting the economically affluent countries, is gradually afflicting also the developing world. This review juxtaposes the threat that the DM epidemic represents to mankind, with the astonishing recent discoveries on the role of obesity and of the body fat in this metabolic disorder. Presently, the highest prevalence of DM is in Saudi Arabia, a country deep in riches generated by its oil wells. DM is very high, in over 10% of adults in the USA, Switzerland and Austria. Prevalence is low in Norway, China and in Iceland. Predictions of epidemiologists for the first third of the 21st century claim up to 2.5 times increase in DM in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, rest of Asia and in the Latin America. In China the number of patients with DM will double but in the economically advanced countries that experienced rise in DM in the 20th century, the increase will be only about 50%. Remarkably, a lowest increase in DM is expected in the countries that formerly belonged to the Soviet political space. Increasing urbanization, aging populations, obesity, and falling levels of physical activity are all contributing to the rise of DM worldwide. The main cause of DM pandemic is growing prevalence of obesity, in Europe and in the Latin America. In the North America obesity is considered to be responsible for 90% of DM in females. Male obesity is associated with DM slightly less, at 70-80% in the European Union and in the US. The precise mechanism by which obesity leads to insulin resistance and to DM is not completely described but it may be related to several biochemical factors, such as abnormalities in free fatty acids, adipokines, leptin and other substances (Tab. 1, Fig. 4, Ref. 24).

  10. Type 2 diabetes mellitus, pandemic in 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginter, Emil; Simko, Vlado

    2012-01-01

    In the second half of the 20th century it became obvious that a relentless increase in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), affecting the economically affluent countries, is gradually afflicting also the developing world. This chapter shows the threat that the T2DM epidemic represents to mankind, with the astonishing recent discoveries on the role of obesity and of body fat in this metabolic disorder. Presently, the highest prevalence of T2DM is in Saudi Arabia. T2DM is very high in over 10% of adults in the USA, Switzerland and Austria. Prevalence is low in Norway, China and in Iceland. Predictions of epidemiologists for the first third of the 21st century claim up to 2.5 times increase in the prevalence of T2DM in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, rest of Asia and in the Latin America. In China the number of patients with T2DM will double in 2030. In the economically advanced countries the increase will be about 50% in 2030. Increasing urbanization, aging populations, obesity and falling levels of physical activity are all contributing to the rise of T2DM worldwide. The main cause of T2DM pandemic is growing prevalence of obesity in Europe and USA. In the North America and European Union countries obesity is considered to be responsible for up to 70-90% of T2DM in adult population. The precise mechanism by which obesity leads to insulin resistance and to T2DM is not completely known but it may be related to several biochemical factors such as abnormalities in free fatty acids, adipokines, leptin and other substances.

  11. Aplikasi Kontrol PI (Proportional Integral pada Katup Ekspansi Mesin Pendingin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayu Rudiyanto

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan proses perancangan dan pembuatan kontrol katup ekspansi otomatis dengan menggunakan sistem kontrol PI, untuk melakukan proses pengontrolan temperatur ruang evaporator agar didapatkan hasil pembekuan yang lebih optimal. Sensor temperatur LM35 digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk melakukan pembacaan temperatur pada ruang evaporator, yang mana dari hasil pembacaan sensor tersebut digunakan sebagai sinyal masukan untuk sistem kontrol PI. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian sensor LM35 mempunyai sensitivitas pembacaan sebesar 0,009335 V/oC.  Unjuk kerja sistem kontrol PI pada penelitian ini didapatkan respon yang baik pada nilai Kp = 20 dan Ki = 10, dimana dengan nilai berikut untuk mencapai temperatur set point waktu yang dibutuhkan selama 251 detik dengan nilai maximum overshoot lebih rendah yaitu -2,4 oC. Hasil pendinginan yang didapatkan pada penelitian ini dengan menggunakan sistem kontrol katup ekspansi otomatis didapat proses pendinginan yang lebih cepat dan energi yang dibutuhkan jauh lebih hemat yaitu sebesar 0,265 kWh.   The Application of A Control PI (Proportional Integral on Expansion Valves Refrigeration Machine  Abstract. This research aim to do design process and making control valve expansion automatic by using control system PI, which then applied on refrigerator plates touch to perform the process of control freezing temperatures. Censor temperature LM35 used in this research to do reading the temperature at evaporator room, of results reading sensors is used as input signal to control system PI. Based on the test result of testing censor LM35 have the sensitivity reading of almost accordance with the datav sheet is as much as 0,009335 V/oC. Were control sistem works PI the research this obtained response good to value center Kp = 20 and Ki =10. In which value, to reach set temperature point , the time it takes 251 seconds by value maximum overshoot point lower then -2.4°C. The result

  12. Organizational collaborative capacity in fighting pandemic crises: a literature review from the public management perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Allen Y

    2012-01-01

    Collaborative capacity serves for organizations as the capacity to collaborate with other network players. Organizational capacity matters as collaboration outcomes usually go beyond single-shot implementation efforts or a single-minded focus on either the vertical dimension of program or the horizontal component. This review article explores organizational collaborative capacities from the perspective of public management, in particular, network theory. By applying the 5 attributes of network theory-interdependence, membership, resources, information, and learning-to the explanation of collaborative capacity in fighting pandemic crises, I argue in some ways organizational collaborative capacity is very much like an organization in its own right. Studying collaborative capacity in the battle against pandemics facilitate our understanding of multisectoral collaboration in technical, political, and institutional dimensions, and greatly advances the richness of capacity vocabulary in pandemic response and preparedness.

  13. Applying social science and public health methods to community-based pandemic planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danforth, Elizabeth J; Doying, Annette; Merceron, Georges; Kennedy, Laura

    2010-11-01

    Pandemic influenza is a unique threat to communities, affecting schools, businesses, health facilities and individuals in ways not seen in other emergency events. This paper aims to outline a local government project which utilised public health and social science research methods to facilitate the creation of an emergency response plan for pandemic influenza coincidental to the early stages of the 2009 H1N1 ('swine flu') outbreak. A multi-disciplinary team coordinated the creation of a pandemic influenza emergency response plan which utilised emergency planning structure and concepts and encompassed a diverse array of county entities including schools, businesses, community organisations, government agencies and healthcare facilities. Lessons learned from this project focus on the need for (1) maintaining relationships forged during the planning process, (2) targeted public health messaging, (3) continual evolution of emergency plans, (4) mutual understanding of emergency management concepts by business and community leaders, and (5) regional coordination with entities outside county boundaries.

  14. The Association of H1N1 Pandemic Influenza with Congenital Anomaly Prevalence in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luteijn, Johannes Michiel; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the context of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) surveillance response to the 2009 influenza pandemic, we sought to establish whether there was a detectable increase of congenital anomaly prevalence among pregnancies exposed to influenza seasons in general......, and whether any increase was greater during the 2009 pandemic than during other seasons. METHODS: We performed an ecologic time series analysis based on 26,967 pregnancies with nonchromosomal congenital anomaly conceived from January 2007 to March 2011, reported by 15 EUROCAT registries. Analysis...... and tricuspid atresia and stenosis during pandemic influenza season 2009, but not during 2007-2011 influenza seasons. For congenital anomalies, where there was no prior hypothesis, the prevalence of tetralogy of Fallot was strongly reduced during influenza seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Our data do not suggest...

  15. Pandemic preparedness - Risk management and infection control for all respiratory infection outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nori, Annapurna; Williams, Mary-Anne

    2009-11-01

    There has been substantial effort and activity in regards to pandemic planning, preparedness and response, mainly in the realm of public health. However, general practitioners and other primary care providers are important players in the health response to a pandemic. To discuss the importance of general practice preparedness for managing respiratory infection outbreaks and to provide a model for the general practice response. Pandemic planning and preparedness in general practice is ultimately a crucial risk management exercise, the cornerstone of which is sound infection control. As planning will be significantly aided by, and should extend to, other respiratory outbreaks, we propose a framework for managing outbreaks of respiratory infections with a focus on planned, practised and habitual infection control measures, and a stepwise response according to the extent and severity of the outbreak.

  16. Communicating during a pandemic: information the public wants about the disease and new vaccines and drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrich, Natalie; Holmes, Bev

    2011-07-01

    To prepare for pandemics, countries are creating pandemic preparedness plans. These plans frequently include crisis communication strategies that recommend conducting pre-crisis audience research to increase the effectiveness and relevance of communication with the public. To begin understanding the communication needs of the public and health care workers, 11 focus groups were conducted in Vancouver, Canada, in 2006 and 2007 to identify what information people want to receive and how they want to receive it. In the event of a pandemic, participants want to know their risk of infection and how sick they could become if infected. To make decisions about using vaccines and drugs, they want information that enables them to assess the risks of using the products. The public prefers to receive this information from family doctors, the Internet, and schools. Health care workers prefer to receive information in e-mails and in-services.

  17. Revisiting public health preparedness: Incorporating social justice principles into pandemic preparedness planning for influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayman, Harvey; Ablorh-Odjidja, Angela

    2006-01-01

    Public health professionals are responsible for ensuring the health of the nation, which requires that planners for public health emergencies recognize that not including protection for underserved or marginalized communities poses a risk to the entire population. To assure the protection of these populations in the event of a pandemic outbreak, preparedness planning will benefit from the application of several principles of social justice in assuring the protection of all individuals. This article will review the history between public health and social justice, provide a brief review of pandemic preparedness planning efforts, discuss the importance of and make recommendations for the incorporation of principles of social justice in the development of pandemic preparedness plans, and highlight some of the challenges faced by public health in effectively and equitably meeting its charge to protect the nation's health.

  18. X-ray proportional counter for the Viking Lander

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glesius, F.L.; Kroon, J.C.; Castro, A.J.; Clark, B.C.

    1978-01-01

    A set of four sealed proportional counters with optimized energy response is employed in the X-ray fluorescence spectrometer units aboard the two Viking Landers. The instruments have provided quantitative elemental analyses of soil samples taken from the Martian surface. This paper discusses the design and development of these miniature proportional counters, and describes their performance on Mars

  19. Putative golden proportions as predictors of facial esthetics in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiekens, Rosemie M A; Kuijpers-Jagtman, Anne Marie; van 't Hof, Martin A; van 't Hof, Bep E; Maltha, Jaap C

    2008-10-01

    In orthodontics, facial esthetics is assumed to be related to golden proportions apparent in the ideal human face. The aim of the study was to analyze the putative relationship between facial esthetics and golden proportions in white adolescents. Seventy-six adult laypeople evaluated sets of photographs of 64 adolescents on a visual analog scale (VAS) from 0 to 100. The facial esthetic value of each subject was calculated as a mean VAS score. Three observers recorded the position of 13 facial landmarks included in 19 putative golden proportions, based on the golden proportions as defined by Ricketts. The proportions and each proportion's deviation from the golden target (1.618) were calculated. This deviation was then related to the VAS scores. Only 4 of the 19 proportions had a significant negative correlation with the VAS scores, indicating that beautiful faces showed less deviation from the golden standard than less beautiful faces. Together, these variables explained only 16% of the variance. Few golden proportions have a significant relationship with facial esthetics in adolescents. The explained variance of these variables is too small to be of clinical importance.

  20. Putative golden proportions as predictors of facial esthetics in adolescents.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiekens, R.M.A.; Kuijpers-Jagtman, A.M.; Hof, M.A. van 't; Hof, B.E. van 't; Maltha, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In orthodontics, facial esthetics is assumed to be related to golden proportions apparent in the ideal human face. The aim of the study was to analyze the putative relationship between facial esthetics and golden proportions in white adolescents. METHODS: Seventy-six adult laypeople

  1. The principle of proportionality and European contract law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cauffman, C.; Rutgers, J.; Sirena, P.

    2015-01-01

    The paper investigates the role of the principle of proportionality within contract law, in balancing the rights and obligations of the contracting parties. It illustrates that the principle of proportionality is one of the general principles which govern contractual relations, and as such it is an

  2. The Improved Estimation of Ratio of Two Population Proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Ramkrishna S.; Singh, Housila P.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, first we obtained the correct mean square error expression of Gupta and Shabbir's linear weighted estimator of the ratio of two population proportions. Later we suggested the general class of ratio estimators of two population proportions. The usual ratio estimator, Wynn-type estimator, Singh, Singh, and Kaur difference-type…

  3. Attention Modulation by Proportion Congruency: The Asymmetrical List Shifting Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamse, Elger L.; Duthoo, Wout; Notebaert, Wim; Risko, Evan F.

    2013-01-01

    Proportion congruency effects represent hallmark phenomena in current theorizing about cognitive control. This is based on the notion that proportion congruency determines the relative levels of attention to relevant and irrelevant information in conflict tasks. However, little empirical evidence exists that uniquely supports such an attention…

  4. 16 CFR 240.9 - Proportionally equal terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proportionally equal terms. 240.9 Section 240.9 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES FOR ADVERTISING ALLOWANCES AND OTHER MERCHANDISING PAYMENTS AND SERVICES § 240.9 Proportionally equal terms. (a...

  5. Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laar, Amos; DeBruin, Debra

    2015-05-07

    Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the risk of rolling out unjust and ethically

  6. Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James W Rudge

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities, particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way

  7. Differences in pandemic influenza vaccination policies for pregnant women in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marnoch Gordon J

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important component of the policy to deal with the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 was to develop and implement vaccination. Since pregnant women were found to be at particular risk of severe morbidity and mortality, the World Health Organization and the European Centers for Disease Control advised vaccinating pregnant women, regardless of trimester of pregnancy. This study reports a survey of vaccination policies for pregnant women in European countries. Methods Questionnaires were sent to European competent authorities of 27 countries via the European Medicines Agency and to leaders of registries of European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies in 21 countries. Results Replies were received for 24 out of 32 European countries of which 20 had an official pandemic vaccination policy. These 20 countries all had a policy targeting pregnant women. For two of the four countries without official pandemic vaccination policies, some vaccination of pregnant women took place. In 12 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate only second and third trimester pregnant women and in 8 out of 20 countries the policy was to vaccinate pregnant women regardless of trimester of pregnancy. Seven different vaccines were used for pregnant women, of which four contained adjuvants. Few countries had mechanisms to monitor the number of vaccinations given specifically to pregnant women over time. Vaccination uptake varied. Conclusions Differences in pandemic vaccination policy and practice might relate to variation in perception of vaccine efficacy and safety, operational issues related to vaccine manufacturing and procurement, and vaccination campaign systems. Increased monitoring of pandemic influenza vaccine coverage of pregnant women is recommended to enable evaluation of the vaccine safety in pregnancy and pandemic vaccination campaign effectiveness.

  8. Business continuity and pandemic preparedness: US health care versus non-health care agencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebmann, Terri; Wang, Jing; Swick, Zachary; Reddick, David; delRosario, John Leon

    2013-04-01

    Only limited data are available on US business continuity activities related to biologic events. A questionnaire was administered to human resource professionals during May-July 2011 to assess business continuity related to biologic events, incentives businesses are providing to maximize worker surge capacity, and seasonal influenza vaccination policy. Linear regressions were used to describe factors associated with higher business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores. The χ(2) and Fisher exact tests compared health care versus non-health care businesses on preparedness indicators. Possible business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0.5 to 27 and 0 to 15, with average resulting scores among participants at 13.2 and 7.3, respectively. Determinants of business continuity and pandemic preparedness were (1) business size (larger businesses were more prepared), (2) type of business (health care more prepared), (3) having human resource professional as company disaster planning committee member, and (4) risk perception of a pandemic in the next year. Most businesses (63.3%, n = 298) encourage staff influenza vaccination; 2.1% (n = 10) mandate it. Only 10% of businesses (11.0%, n = 52) provide employee incentives, and fewer than half (41.0%, n = 193) stockpile personal protective equipment. Despite the recent H1N1 pandemic, many US businesses lack adequate pandemic plans. It is critical that businesses of all sizes and types become better prepared for a biologic event. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Safety of pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnans, Leonoor; de Bie, Sandra; Dieleman, Jeanne; Bonhoeffer, Jan; Sturkenboom, Miriam

    2011-10-06

    During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic several pandemic H1N1 vaccines were licensed using fast track procedures, with relatively limited data on the safety in children and adolescents. Different extensive safety monitoring efforts were put in place to ensure timely detection of adverse events following immunization. These combined efforts have generated large amounts of data on the safety of the different pandemic H1N1 vaccines, also in children and adolescents. In this overview we shortly summarize the safety experience with seasonal influenza vaccines as a background and focus on the clinical and post marketing safety data of the pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children. We identified 25 different clinical studies including 10,505 children and adolescents, both healthy and with underlying medical conditions, between the ages of 6 months and 23 years. In addition, large monitoring efforts have resulted in large amounts of data, with almost 13,000 individual case reports in children and adolescents to the WHO. However, the diversity in methods and data presentation in clinical study publications and publications of spontaneous reports hampered the analysis of safety of the different vaccines. As a result, relatively little has been learned on the comparative safety of these pandemic H1N1 vaccines - particularly in children. It should be a collective effort to give added value to the enormous work going into the individual studies by adhering to available guidelines for the collection, analysis, and presentation of vaccine safety data in clinical studies and to guidance for the clinical investigation of medicinal products in the pediatric population. Importantly the pandemic has brought us the beginning of an infrastructure for collaborative vaccine safety studies in the EU, USA and globally. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Using evidence-based medicine to protect healthcare workers from pandemic influenza: Is it possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gralton, Jan; McLaws, Mary-Louise

    2011-01-01

    To use evidence-based principles to develop infection control algorithms to ensure the protection of healthcare workers and the continuity of health service provision during a pandemic. : Evidence-based algorithms were developed from published research as well as "needs and values" assessments. Research evidence was obtained from 97 studies reporting the protectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal vaccination, and mask use. Needs and values assessments were undertaken by international experts in pandemic infection control and local healthcare workers. Opportunity and resources costs were not determined. The Australian government commissioned the development of an evidence-based algorithm for inclusion in the 2008 revision of the Australian Health and Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Two international infection control teams responsible for healthcare worker safety during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak reviewed the evidence-based algorithms. The algorithms were then reviewed for needs and values by eight local clinicians who were considered key frontline clinicians during the contain and sustain phases. The international teams reviewed for practicability of implementation, whereas local clinicians reviewed for clinician compliance. Despite strong evidence for vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis providing significant protection, clinicians believed they required the additional combinations of both masks and face shields. Despite the equivocal evidence for the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks and the provision of algorithms appropriate for the level of risk according to clinical care during a pandemic, clinicians still demanded N95 masks plus face shields in combination with prophylaxis and novel vaccination. Conventional evidence-based principles could not be applied to formulate recommendations due to the lack of pandemic-specific efficacy data of protection tools and the inherent unpredictability of pandemics. As an alternative

  11. Legal rights during pandemics: federalism, rights and public health laws--a view from Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B

    2009-03-01

    Pandemic influenza will cause significant social and economic disruption. Legal frameworks can play an important role in clarifying the rights and duties of individuals, communities and governments for times of crisis. In addressing legal frameworks, there is a need for jurisdictional clarity between different levels of government in responding to public health emergencies. Public health laws are also informed by our understandings of rights and responsibilities for individuals and communities, and the balancing of public health and public freedoms. Consideration of these issues is an essential part of planning for pandemic influenza.

  12. Are we prepared to help low-resource communities cope with a severe influenza pandemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starbuck, Eric S; von Bernuth, Rudolph; Bolles, Kathryn; Koepsell, Jeanne

    2013-11-01

    Recent research involving lab-modified H5N1 influenza viruses with increased transmissibility and the ongoing evolution of the virus in nature should remind us of the continuing importance of preparedness for a severe influenza pandemic. Current vaccine technology and antiviral supply remain inadequate, and in a severe pandemic, most low-resource communities will fail to receive adequate medical supplies. However, with suitable guidance, these communities can take appropriate actions without substantial outside resources to reduce influenza transmission and care for the ill. Such guidance should be completed, and support provided to developing countries to adapt it for their settings and prepare for implementation. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Healthcare workers' attitudes to working during pandemic influenza: a qualitative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petts Judith I

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Healthcare workers (HCWs will play a key role in any response to pandemic influenza, and the UK healthcare system's ability to cope during an influenza pandemic will depend, to a large extent, on the number of HCWs who are able and willing to work through the crisis. UK emergency planning will be improved if planners have a better understanding of the reasons UK HCWs may have for their absenteeism, and what might motivate them to work during an influenza pandemic. This paper reports the results of a qualitative study that explored UK HCWs' views (n = 64 about working during an influenza pandemic, in order to identify factors that might influence their willingness and ability to work and to identify potential sources of any perceived duty on HCWs to work. Methods A qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 9 and interviews (n = 5. Results HCWs across a range of roles and grades tended to feel motivated by a sense of obligation to work through an influenza pandemic. A number of significant barriers that may prevent them from doing so were also identified. Perceived barriers to the ability to work included being ill oneself, transport difficulties, and childcare responsibilities. Perceived barriers to the willingness to work included: prioritising the wellbeing of family members; a lack of trust in, and goodwill towards, the NHS; a lack of information about the risks and what is expected of them during the crisis; fear of litigation; and the feeling that employers do not take the needs of staff seriously. Barriers to ability and barriers to willingness, however, are difficult to separate out. Conclusion Although our participants tended to feel a general obligation to work during an influenza pandemic, there are barriers to working, which, if generalisable, may significantly reduce the NHS workforce during a pandemic. The barriers identified are both barriers to willingness and to ability. This suggests that pandemic planning

  14. Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Merler

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A common pattern emerging from several studies evaluating the impact of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza (A/H1N1pdm conducted in countries worldwide is the low attack rate observed in elderly compared to that observed in children and young adults. The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated. METHODS: The level of immunity against the A/H1N1pdm in pre and post pandemic sera was determined using left over sera taken for diagnostic purposes or routine ascertainment obtained from clinical laboratories. The antibody titres were measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI assay. To investigate whether certain age groups had higher risk of infection the presence of protective antibody (≥1∶40, was calculated using exact binomial 95% CI on both pre- and post- pandemic serological data in the age groups considered. To estimate age-specific susceptibility to infection we used an age-structured SEIR model. RESULTS: By comparing pre- and post-pandemic serological data in Italy we found age- specific attack rates similar to those observed in other countries. Cumulative attack rate at the end of the first A/H1N1pdm season in Italy was estimated to be 16.3% (95% CI 9.4%-23.1%. Modeling results allow ruling out the hypothesis that only age-specific characteristics of the contact network and levels of pre-pandemic immunity are responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection. This means that age-specific susceptibility to infection, suspected to play an important role in the pandemic, was not only determined by pre-pandemic levels of H1N1pdm antibody measured by HI. CONCLUSIONS: Our results claim for new studies to better identify the biological mechanisms, which might have determined the observed pattern of susceptibility with age. Moreover, our results highlight the need to obtain early estimates of differential susceptibility with age in

  15. Adaptation to delayed force perturbations in reaching movements.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noa Levy

    Full Text Available Adaptation to deterministic force perturbations during reaching movements was extensively studied in the last few decades. Here, we use this methodology to explore the ability of the brain to adapt to a delayed velocity-dependent force field. Two groups of subjects preformed a standard reaching experiment under a velocity dependent force field. The force was either immediately proportional to the current velocity (Control or lagged it by 50 ms (Test. The results demonstrate clear adaptation to the delayed force perturbations. Deviations from a straight line during catch trials were shifted in time compared to post-adaptation to a non-delayed velocity dependent field (Control, indicating expectation to the delayed force field. Adaptation to force fields is considered to be a process in which the motor system predicts the forces to be expected based on the state that a limb will assume in response to motor commands. This study demonstrates for the first time that the temporal window of this prediction needs not to be fixed. This is relevant to the ability of the adaptive mechanisms to compensate for variability in the transmission of information across the sensory-motor system.

  16. Inactivation of Parietal Reach Region Affects Reaching But Not Saccade Choices in Internally Guided Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopoulos, Vassilios N; Bonaiuto, James; Kagan, Igor; Andersen, Richard A

    2015-08-19

    The posterior parietal cortex (PPC) has traditionally been considered important for awareness, spatial perception, and attention. However, recent findings provide evidence that the PPC also encodes information important for making decisions. These findings have initiated a running argument of whether the PPC is critically involved in decision making. To examine this issue, we reversibly inactivated the parietal reach region (PRR), the area of the PPC that is specialized for reaching movements, while two monkeys performed a memory-guided reaching or saccade task. The task included choices between two equally rewarded targets presented simultaneously in opposite visual fields. Free-choice trials were interleaved with instructed trials, in which a single cue presented in the peripheral visual field defined the reach and saccade target unequivocally. We found that PRR inactivation led to a strong reduction of contralesional choices, but only for reaches. On the other hand, saccade choices were not affected by PRR inactivation. Importantly, reaching and saccade movements to single instructed targets remained largely intact. These results cannot be explained as an effector-nonspecific deficit in spatial attention or awareness, since the temporary "lesion" had an impact only on reach choices. Hence, the PPR is a part of a network for reach decisions and not just reach planning. There has been an ongoing debate on whether the posterior parietal cortex (PPC) represents only spatial awareness, perception, and attention or whether it is also involved in decision making for actions. In this study we explore whether the parietal reach region (PRR), the region of the PPC that is specialized for reaches, is involved in the decision process. We inactivated the PRR while two monkeys performed reach and saccade choices between two targets presented simultaneously in both hemifields. We found that inactivation affected only the reach choices, while leaving saccade choices intact

  17. Which Mixed-Member Proportional Electoral Formula Fits You Best? Assessing the Proportionality Principle of Positive Vote Transfer Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bochsler, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Mixed-member proportional systems (MMP) are a family of electoral systems which combine district-based elections with a proportional seat allocation. Positive vote transfer systems belong to this family. This article explains why they might be better than their siblings, and examines under which ...

  18. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    In recent years, the paradigm of chemical management system has changed from being toxicity oriented and media based to being risk oriented and receptor based. This trend is evident not only regarding environmental quality standards, but also for industrial chemical regulations. Political...... instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... and managing the risks posed by industrial chemicals and providing appropriate safety information to their users (EC, 2007). However, to ensure a high level of protection of human health and the environment, there is a need to consider ‘aggregate exposure’ including background exposures from environment which...

  19. Does workplace health promotion reach shift workers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Garde, Anne Helene; Clausen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: One reason for health disparities between shift and day workers may be that workplace health promotion does not reach shift workers to the same extent as it reaches day workers. This study aimed to investigate the association between shift work and the availability of and participation...... in workplace health promotion. METHODS: We used cross-sectional questionnaire data from a large representative sample of all employed people in Denmark. We obtained information on the availability of and participation in six types of workplace health promotion. We also obtained information on working hours, ie......). RESULTS: In the general working population, fixed evening and fixed night workers, and employees working variable shifts including night work reported a higher availability of health promotion, while employees working variable shifts without night work reported a lower availability of health promotion...

  20. Olefins and chemical regulation in Europe: REACH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, Mike; Banton, Marcy; Erler, Steffen; Moore, Nigel; Semmler, Klaus

    2015-11-05

    REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) is the European Union's chemical regulation for the management of risk to human health and the environment (European Chemicals Agency, 2006). This regulation entered into force in June 2007 and required manufacturers and importers to register substances produced in annual quantities of 1000 tonnes or more by December 2010, with further deadlines for lower tonnages in 2013 and 2018. Depending on the type of registration, required information included the substance's identification, the hazards of the substance, the potential exposure arising from the manufacture or import, the identified uses of the substance, and the operational conditions and risk management measures applied or recommended to downstream users. Among the content developed to support this information were Derived No-Effect Levels or Derived Minimal Effect Levels (DNELs/DMELs) for human health hazard assessment, Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs) for environmental hazard assessment, and exposure scenarios for exposure and risk assessment. Once registered, substances may undergo evaluation by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) or Member State authorities and be subject to requests for additional information or testing as well as additional risk reduction measures. To manage the REACH registration and related activities for the European olefins and aromatics industry, the Lower Olefins and Aromatics REACH Consortium was formed in 2008 with administrative and technical support provided by Penman Consulting. A total of 135 substances are managed by this group including 26 individual chemical registrations (e.g. benzene, 1,3-butadiene) and 13 categories consisting of 5-26 substances. This presentation will describe the content of selected registrations prepared for 2010 in addition to the significant post-2010 activities. Beyond REACH, content of the registrations may also be relevant to other European activities, for

  1. Performance reach in the LHC for 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arduini, G.

    2012-01-01

    Based on the 2011 experience and Machine Development study results, the performance reach of the LHC with 25 and 50 ns beams will be addressed for operation at 3.5 and 4 TeV. The possible scrubbing scenarios and potential intensity limitations resulting from vacuum, heating will be taken into account wherever possible. The paper mainly covers the performance of the two high luminosity regions in IR1 and IR5. (author)

  2. The proportionate value of proportionality in palliative sedation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Jeffrey T

    2014-01-01

    Proportionality, as it pertains to palliative sedation, is the notion that sedation should be induced at the lowest degree effective for symptom control, so that the patient's consciousness may be preserved. The pursuit of proportionality in palliative sedation is a widely accepted imperative advocated in position statements and guidelines on this treatment. The priority assigned to the pursuit of proportionality, and the extent to which it is relevant for patients who qualify for palliative sedation, have been overstated. Copyright 2014 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

  3. An integrated photosensor readout for gas proportional scintillation counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopes, J.A.M.; Santos, J.M.F. dos; Conde, C.A.N.

    1996-01-01

    A xenon gas proportional scintillation counter has been instrumented with a novel photosensor that replaces the photomultiplier tube normally used to detect the VUV secondary scintillation light. In this implementation, the collection grid of a planar gas proportional scintillation counter also functions as a multiwire proportional chamber to amplify and detect the photoelectrons emitted by a reflective CsI photocathode in direct contact with the xenon gas. This integrated concept combines greater simplicity, compactness, and ruggedness (no optical window is used) with low power consumption. An energy resolution of 12% was obtained for 59.6 keV x-rays

  4. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, Victor A

    2011-01-01

    Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6-2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3-1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected

  5. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V.; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, Victor A.

    2011-01-01

    Background Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. Methods We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. Results The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Conclusions Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school

  6. Large-proportional shrunken bio-replication of shark skin based on UV-curing shrinkage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Huawei; Che, Da; Zhang, Xin; Yue, Yue; Zhang, Deyuan

    2015-01-01

    The shark skin effect has attracted worldwide attention because of its superior drag reduction. As the product of natural selection, the maximum drag reduction of shark skin is found in its normal living environment. Large-proportional shrinkage of shark skin morphology is greatly anticipated for its adaptation to faster fluid flow. One novel approach, large-proportional shrunken bio-replication, is proposed as a method to adjust the optimal drag reduction region of shark skin based on the shrinkage of UV-cured material. The shark skin is taken as a replica template to allow large-proportional shrinking in the drag reduction morphology by taking advantage of the shrinkage of UV-curable material. The accuracy of the large-proportional shrunken bio-replication approach is verified by a comparison between original and shrunken bio-replicated shark skin, which shows that the shrinking ratio can reach 23% and the bio-replication accuracy is higher than 95%. In addition, the translation of the optimum drag reduction peak of natural surface function to various applications and environments is proved by drag reduction experiments. (technical note)

  7. Post-pandemic assessment of public knowledge, behavior, and skill on influenza prevention among the general population of Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Seale, Holly; Wu, Shuangsheng; Yang, Peng; Zheng, Yang; Ma, Chunna; MacIntyre, Raina; Wang, Quanyi

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the knowledge, behavioral, and skill responses toward influenza in the general population of Beijing after pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Beijing, China, in January 2011. A survey was conducted in which information was collected using a standardized questionnaire. A comprehensive evaluation index system of health literacy related to influenza was built to evaluate the level of health literacy regarding influenza prevention and control among residents in Beijing. Thirteen thousand and fifty-three valid questionnaires were received. The average score for the sum of knowledge, behavior, and skill was 14.12±3.22, and the mean scores for knowledge, behavior, and skill were 4.65±1.20, 7.25±1.94, and 2.21±1.31, respectively. The qualified proportions of these three sections were 23.7%, 11.9%, and 43.4%, respectively, and the total proportion with a qualified level was 6.7%. There were significant differences in health literacy level related to influenza among the different gender, age, educational level, occupational status, and location groups (ppopulation in Beijing and the extent of relativities in knowledge, behavior, and skill about influenza was found to be weak. Therefore, improvements are needed in terms of certain aspects, particularly for the elderly and the population of rural districts. Educational level, as a significant factor in reducing the spread of influenza, should be considered seriously when intervention strategies are implemented. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Balancing equity and efficiency in the Dutch basic benefits package using the principle of proportional shortfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wetering, E J; Stolk, E A; van Exel, N J A; Brouwer, W B F

    2013-02-01

    Economic evaluations are increasingly used to inform decisions regarding the allocation of scarce health care resources. To systematically incorporate societal preferences into these evaluations, quality-adjusted life year gains could be weighted according to some equity principle, the most suitable of which is a matter of frequent debate. While many countries still struggle with equity concerns for priority setting in health care, the Netherlands has reached a broad consensus to use the concept of proportional shortfall. Our study evaluates the concept and its support in the Dutch health care context. We discuss arguments in the Netherlands for using proportional shortfall and difficulties in transitioning from principle to practice. In doing so, we address universal issues leading to a systematic consideration of equity concerns for priority setting in health care. The article thus has relevance to all countries struggling with the formalization of equity concerns for priority setting.

  9. A reduced feedback proportional fair multiuser scheduling scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Alnuweiri, Hussein M.; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2011-01-01

    . A slight reduction in the prospected multiuser diversity gains is an acceptable trade-off for great savings in terms of required channel-state-information feedback messages. In this work, we propose a novel proportional fair multiuser switched

  10. DC motor proportional control system for orthotic devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaise, H. T.; Allen, J. R.

    1972-01-01

    Multi-channel proportional control system for operation of dc motors for use with externally-powered orthotic arm braces is described. Components of circuitry and principles of operation are described. Schematic diagram of control circuit is provided.

  11. Proportional feedback control of laminar flow over a hemisphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jung Il [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Dong Gun [Severe Accident and PHWR Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-08-15

    In the present study, we perform a proportional feedback control of laminar flow over a hemisphere at Re = 300 to reduce its lift fluctuations by attenuating the strength of the vortex shedding. As a control input, blowing/suction is distributed on the surface of hemisphere before the separation, and its strength is linearly proportional to the transverse velocity at a sensing location in the centerline of the wake. The sensing location is determined based on a correlation function between the lift force and the time derivative of sensing velocity. The optimal proportional gains for the proportional control are obtained for the sensing locations considered. The present control successfully attenuates the velocity fluctuations at the sensing location and three dimensional vertical structures in the wake, resulting in the reduction of lift fluctuations of hemisphere.

  12. Operability test report for 211BA flow proportional sampler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weissenfels, R.D.

    1995-01-01

    This operability report will verify that the 211-BA flow proportional sampler functions as intended by design. The sampler was installed by Project W-007H and is part of BAT/AKART for the BCE liquid effluent stream

  13. A parsimonious model for the proportional control valve

    OpenAIRE

    Elmer, KF; Gentle, CR

    2001-01-01

    A generic non-linear dynamic model of a direct-acting electrohydraulic proportional solenoid valve is presented. The valve consists of two subsystems-s-a spool assembly and one or two unidirectional proportional solenoids. These two subsystems are modelled separately. The solenoid is modelled as a non-linear resistor-inductor combination, with inductance parameters that change with current. An innovative modelling method has been used to represent these components. The spool assembly is model...

  14. Reduction of degraded events in miniaturized proportional counters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaga, R.; Kirsten, T. (Max Planck Inst. fuer Kernphysik, Heidelberg (Germany))

    1991-11-15

    A method to reduce the number of degraded events in miniaturized proportional counters is described. A shaping of the outer cathode leads to a more uniform gas gain along the counter axis. The method is useful in situations in which the total number of decay events is very low. The effects leading to degraded events are studied theoretically and experimentally. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated by using it for the proportional counter of the GALLEX solar neutrino experiment. (orig.).

  15. Modelling and analysis of piezoelectric cantilever energy harvester for different proof mass and material proportion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shashank, R.; Harisha, S. K., Dr; Abhishek, M. C.

    2018-02-01

    Energy harvesting using ambient energy sources is one of the fast growing trends in the world, research and development in the area of energy harvesting is moving progressively to get maximum power output from the existing resources. The ambient sources of energy available in the nature are solar energy, wind energy, thermal energy, vibrational energy etc. out of these methods energy harvesting by vibrational energy sources gain more importance due to its nature of not getting influenced by any environmental parameters and its free availability at anytime and anywhere. The project mainly deals with validating the values of voltage and electrical power output of experimentally conducted energy harvester, varying the parameters of the energy harvester and analyse the effect of the parameters on the performance of the energy harvester and compare the results. The cantilever beam was designed, analysed and simulated using COMSOL multi-physics software. The energy harvester gives an electrical output voltage of the 2.75 volts at a natural frequency of 37.2 Hz and an electrical power of 29μW. Decreasing the percentage of the piezoelectric material and simultaneously increasing the percentage of polymer material (so that total percentage of proportion remains same) increases the electrical voltage and decreases the natural frequency of the beam linearly upto 3.9V and 28.847 Hz till the percentage proportion of the beam was 24% piezoelectric beam and 76% polymer beam when the percentage proportion increased to 26% and 74% natural frequency goes on decreases further but voltage suddenly drops to 2.8V. The voltage generated by energy harvester increases proportionally and reaches 3.7V until weight of the proof mass reaches 4 grams and further increase in the weight of the proof mass decreases the voltage generated by energy harvester. Thus the investigation conveys that the weight of the proof mass and the length of the cantilever beam should be optimised to obtain maximum

  16. Riparian Vegetation Mapping Along the Hanford Reach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FOGWELL, T.W.

    2003-01-01

    During the biological survey and inventory of the Hanford Site conducted in the mid-1990s (1995 and 1996), preliminary surveys of the riparian vegetation were conducted along the Hanford Reach. These preliminary data were reported to The Nature Conservancy (TNC), but were not included in any TNC reports to DOE or stakeholders. During the latter part of FY2001, PNNL contracted with SEE Botanical, the parties that performed the original surveys in the mid 1990s, to complete the data summaries and mapping associated with the earlier survey data. Those data sets were delivered to PNNL and the riparian mapping by vegetation type for the Hanford Reach is being digitized during the first quarter of FY2002. These mapping efforts provide the information necessary to create subsequent spatial data layers to describe the riparian zone according to plant functional types (trees, shrubs, grasses, sedges, forbs). Quantification of the riparian zone by vegetation types is important to a number of DOE'S priority issues including modeling contaminant transport and uptake in the near-riverine environment and the determination of ecological risk. This work included the identification of vegetative zones along the Reach by changes in dominant plant species covering the shoreline from just to the north of the 300 Area to China Bar near Vernita. Dominant and indicator species included Agropyron dasytachyudA. smithii, Apocynum cannabinum, Aristida longiseta, Artemisia campestris ssp. borealis var scouleriana, Artemisa dracunculus, Artemisia lindleyana, Artemisia tridentata, Bromus tectorum, Chrysothamnus nauseosus, Coreopsis atkinsoniana. Eleocharis palustris, Elymus cinereus, Equisetum hyemale, Eriogonum compositum, Juniperus trichocarpa, Phalaris arundinacea, Poa compressa. Salk exigua, Scirpus acutus, Solidago occidentalis, Sporobolus asper,and Sporobolus cryptandrus. This letter report documents the data received, the processing by PNNL staff, and additional data gathered in FY2002

  17. Long-reach manipulators for decommissioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, D.A.; Challinor, S.F.

    1993-01-01

    A survey of redundant facilities at Sellafield has identified that in many cases the conventional means of deploying remote handling equipment are not appropriate and that novel means must be employed. However, decommissioning is not a value adding activity and so expensive one off designs must be avoided. The paper will describe BNFL's approach to the synthesis from proprietary parts of a manipulator which can lift 3 te at a horizontal reach of over 5 metres and yet can still perform the dextrous manipulation necessary to remove small items. It will also cover the development of the manipulator control systems and the adaption of commercial handtools to be manipulator friendly. (author)

  18. Luminosity performance reach after LS1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herr, W.

    2012-01-01

    Based on past experience (2010/2011), in particular expected limitations from beam-beam effects, and taking into account the expected beam quality from the LHC injectors, the peak and integrated luminosity at top energy is discussed for different scenarios (e.g. bunch spacing, beta*). In particular it will be shown which are the key parameters to reach the nominal luminosity and it is also shown that peak luminosities two times larger than nominal (or higher) are possible. Possible test in 2012 are discussed

  19. City Reach Code Technical Support Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athalye, Rahul A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chen, Yan [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Liu, Bing [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Frankel, Mark [New Buildings Inst., Portland, OR (United States); Lyles, Mark [New Buildings Inst., Portland, OR (United States)

    2017-10-31

    This report describes and analyzes a set of energy efficiency measures that will save 20% energy over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013. The measures will be used to formulate a Reach Code for cities aiming to go beyond national model energy codes. A coalition of U.S. cities together with other stakeholders wanted to facilitate the development of voluntary guidelines and standards that can be implemented in stages at the city level to improve building energy efficiency. The coalition's efforts are being supported by the U.S. Department of Energy via Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and in collaboration with the New Buildings Institute.

  20. Provision of pandemic disease information by health sciences librarians: a multisite comparative case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Featherstone, Robin M; Boldt, R Gabriel; Torabi, Nazi; Konrad, Shauna-Lee

    2012-04-01

    The research provides an understanding of pandemic information needs and informs professional development initiatives for librarians in disaster medicine. Utilizing a multisite, comparative case series design, the researchers conducted semi-structured interviews and examined supplementary materials in the form of organizational documents, correspondence, and websites to create a complete picture of each case. The rigor of the case series was ensured through data and investigator triangulation. Interview transcripts were coded using NVivo to identify common themes and points of comparison. Comparison of the four cases revealed a distinct difference between "client-initiated" and "librarian-initiated" provision of pandemic information. Librarian-initiated projects utilized social software to "push" information, whereas client-initiated projects operated within patron-determined parameters to deliver information. Health care administrators were identified as a key audience for pandemic information, and news agencies were utilized as essential information sources. Librarians' skills at evaluating available information proved crucial for selecting best-quality evidence to support administrative decision making. Qualitative analysis resulted in increased understanding of pandemic information needs and identified best practices for disseminating information during periods of high organizational stress caused by an influx of new cases of an unknown infectious disease.

  1. Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus incursion into Africa: countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus incursion into Africa: countries, hosts and ... features are important for planning control measures between countries and to ... in humans, infections in pigs earlier reported in America, Europe and Asia were ...

  2. The Influenza A(H1N1)v Pandemic : An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Hamarat, C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a small exploratory System Dynamics model related to the dynamics of the 2009 flu pandemic, also known as the Mexican flu, swine flu, or A(H1N1)v. The model was developed in May 2009 in order to quickly foster understanding about the possible dynamics of this new flu variant and

  3. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  4. Law, ethics and pandemic preparedness: the importance of cross-jurisdictional and cross-cultural perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Belinda; Carney, Terry

    2010-04-01

    To explore social equity, health planning, regulatory and ethical dilemmas in responding to a pandemic influenza (H5N1) outbreak, and the adequacy of protocols and standards such as the International Health Regulations (2005). This paper analyses the role of legal and ethical considerations for pandemic preparedness, including an exploration of the relevance of cross-jurisdictional and cross-cultural perspectives in assessing the validity of goals for harmonisation of laws and policies both within and between nations. Australian and international experience is reviewed in various areas, including distribution of vaccines during a pandemic, the distribution of authority between national and local levels of government, and global and regional equity issues for poorer countries. This paper finds that questions such as those of distributional justice (resource allocation) and regulatory frameworks raise important issues about the cultural and ethical acceptability of planning measures. Serious doubt is cast on a 'one size fits all' approach to international planning for managing a pandemic. It is concluded that a more nuanced approach than that contained in international guidelines may be required if an effective response is to be constructed internationally. The paper commends the wisdom of reliance on 'soft law', international guidance that leaves plenty of room for each nation to construct its response in conformity with its own cultural and value requirements. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.

  5. Pandemic Fear and Literature: Observations from Jack London’s The Scarlet Plague

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-11-18

    Sarah Gregory reads an abridged version of the essay, Pandemic Fear and Literature: Observations from Jack London’s The Scarlet Plague.  Created: 11/18/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 11/20/2014.

  6. Incorporating Research and Evaluation into Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-03-27

    Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a medical officer at CDC, discusses Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Preparedness and Response.  Created: 3/27/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 3/27/2014.

  7. Public perceptions of pandemic influenza resource allocation: A deliberativeforum using Grid/Group analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Docter, S.P.; Street, J.; Braunack-Mayer, A.J.; van der Wilt, G.J.

    2011-01-01

    The emergence of virulent avian influenza A subtypes with potential to evolve into novel human subtypes prompted directives from the World Health Organisation recommending that countries prepare for a pandemic. In response the Australian government developed the Australian Health Management Plan for

  8. Antivirals Use During the Pandemic H1N1 2009 Outbreak

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-01-23

    Charisma Atkins, CDC public health analyst, discusses antiviral use during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic flu outbreak.  Created: 1/23/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 1/23/2012.

  9. Adoption of Preventive Measures and Attitudes toward the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Anna; Rodríguez, Tània; López, Maria José; Continente, Xavier; Nebot, Manel

    2016-01-01

    Background: This study describes the perceived impact of H1N1 influenza and the adoption of the recommended measures to address the pandemic in schools. Methods: A cross-sectional self-reported survey was conducted in 433 schools in Barcelona addressed to the school principal or the H1N1 influenza designated person. A descriptive analysis was…

  10. Knowledge about Pandemic Influenza in Healthcare and Non-Healthcare Students in London

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purssell, Edward; While, Alison

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the knowledge of university students regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza. Design: Online questionnaire-based survey of undergraduate and postgraduate students, including those on nursing, medical, other health and non-health related courses. Method: The sample was recruited using the university email system, and the…

  11. Public Health Control Measures in Response to Global Pandemics and Drug Resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Polly J

    2015-01-01

    These teaching materials provide problem-based exercises exploring the specific powers of governments to implement control measures in response to communicable disease. Topics include global pandemic disease and, in the United States, legal issues in tuberculosis control. © 2015 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  12. Pandemic planning : oilsands operators and the regional municipality constantly refine strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ball, C.G.

    2008-06-15

    The Alberta government anticipates that between 17 to 43 per cent of the province's population will be affected during a potential influenza pandemic. It is expected that between 3 and 12,000 Albertans will be hospitalized and up to 3000 will die. This article discussed emergency plans made by the oil and gas industry for future pandemics. Oil sands operators in the Wood Buffalo municipality prepared plans based on guidelines made by the World Health Organization (WHO) and various government bodies. The transient nature of the region's population and its limited health resources may increase the level of risk associated with a pandemic. The planning process adopted by the region has been designed to provide staff with the ability to deal with increased numbers of people visiting the hospital. The planning process includes training exercises that range from desktop drills to the setting up of triage areas. Other plans include the identification of operations and processes that would be at risk in the event of a pandemic, as well the identification of key operations and roles. Plans are constantly being refined in order to identify new areas of risk. 1 fig.

  13. Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towers, S

    2017-10-01

    Since 1978, a series of papers in the literature have claimed to find a significant association between sunspot activity and the timing of influenza pandemics. This paper examines these analyses, and attempts to recreate the three most recent statistical analyses by Ertel (1994), Tapping et al. (2001), and Yeung (2006), which all have purported to find a significant relationship between sunspot numbers and pandemic influenza. As will be discussed, each analysis had errors in the data. In addition, in each analysis arbitrary selections or assumptions were also made, and the authors did not assess the robustness of their analyses to changes in those arbitrary assumptions. Varying the arbitrary assumptions to other, equally valid, assumptions negates the claims of significance. Indeed, an arbitrary selection made in one of the analyses appears to have resulted in almost maximal apparent significance; changing it only slightly yields a null result. This analysis applies statistically rigorous methodology to examine the purported sunspot/pandemic link, using more statistically powerful un-binned analysis methods, rather than relying on arbitrarily binned data. The analyses are repeated using both the Wolf and Group sunspot numbers. In all cases, no statistically significant evidence of any association was found. However, while the focus in this particular analysis was on the purported relationship of influenza pandemics to sunspot activity, the faults found in the past analyses are common pitfalls; inattention to analysis reproducibility and robustness assessment are common problems in the sciences, that are unfortunately not noted often enough in review.

  14. Supporting Lesotho Teachers to Develop Resilience in the Face of the HIV and AIDS Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lesley; Ntaote, Grace Makeletso; Theron, Linda

    2012-01-01

    HIV and AIDS threaten to erode the wellbeing of teachers who are faced with an increasing number of children rendered vulnerable by the pandemic. This article explores the usefulness of a supportive group intervention, Resilient Educators (REds), in supporting Lesotho teachers to respond to the HIV and AIDS-related challenges. A time-series pre-…

  15. Coordination Costs for School-Located Influenza Vaccination Clinics, Maine, 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asay, Garrett R. Beeler; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Lorick, Suchita A.; Tipton, Meredith L.; Dube, Nancy L.; Messonnier, Mark L.

    2012-01-01

    School nurses played a key role in Maine's school-located influenza vaccination (SLV) clinics during the 2009-2010 pandemic season. The objective of this study was to determine, from the school district perspective, the labor hours and costs associated with outside-clinic coordination activities (OCA). The authors defined OCA as labor hours spent…

  16. Globalization, Public Policy, and "Knowledge Gap": Ethiopian Youth and the HIV/AIDS Pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetene, Getnet Tizazu; Dimitriadis, Greg

    2010-01-01

    Set against trans- or supra-national policy initiatives which have framed the HIV/AIDS pandemic as in part a pedagogical issue, this paper critically explores local understandings of sexual practices (generally) as well as of HIV/AIDS (more specifically) among young people in the sub-Saharan African country of Ethiopia. Ethiopia has the third…

  17. Pandemic H1N1 2009 virus in Danish pigs: Diagnosis and lack of surveillance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lars Erik; Nielsen, L. P.; Breum, Solvej Østergaard

    In March-April 2009, a novel pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1v) of likely swine origin emerged in the human population globally. The first case in pigs was reported from Canada in May 2009 and presently almost all countries with pig production have reported cases. The emergence of a new influenza subtype...

  18. Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, ppandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, ppandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

  19. Risk factors for death from pandemic (H1N1) 2009, southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokota, Renata T C; Skalinski, Lacita M; Igansi, Cristine N; de Souza, Libia R O; Iser, Betine P M; Reis, Priscilleyne O; Barros, Eliana N C; Macário, Eduardo M; Bercini, Marilina A; Ranieri, Tani M S; Araújo, Wildo N

    2011-08-01

    To identify risk factors for death from pandemic (H1N1) 2009, we obtained data for 157 hospitalized patients with confirmed cases of this disease. Multivariate analysis showed that diabetes and class III obesity were associated with death. These findings helped define priority vaccination groups in Brazil.

  20. Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpka, T; Eriksson, H; Holm, E; Strömgren, M; Ekberg, J; Spreco, A; Dahlström, Ö

    2016-07-01

    Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.