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Sample records for rational expectations hypothesis

  1. Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis on the Retail Trade Sector Using Survey Data from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Puah, Chin-Hong; Chong, Lucy Lee-Yun; Jais, Mohamad

    2011-01-01

    The rational expectations hypothesis states that when people are expecting things to happen, using the available information, the predicted outcomes usually occur. This study utilized survey data provided by the Business Expectations Survey of Limited Companies to test whether forecasts of the Malaysian retail sector, based on gross revenue and capital expenditures, are rational. The empirical evidence illustrates that the decision-makers expectations in the retail sector are biased and too o...

  2. The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: An assessment on its real world application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Tobón

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Rational Expectations Hypothesis was first developed as a theoretical technique aimed at explaining agents’ behavior in a given environment. In particular, it describes how the outcome of a given economic phenomenon depends to a certain degree on what agents expect to happen. Subsequently, it was introduced into macroeconomic models as a way to explain the ineffectiveness of monetary policy. Since then, most of these models have been based on the rational expectations assumption. This paper assesses the real life application of this feature based on two arguments: the determination of an objective reality through beliefs and subjective expectations; and the exclusion of the evolution of human knowledge and innovation in macroeconomic models.

  3. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  4. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  5. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  6. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  7. Hypothesis Testing as an Act of Rationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Statistical hypothesis testing is ad hoc in two ways. First, setting probabilistic rejection criteria is, as Neyman (1957) put it, an act of will rather than an act of rationality. Second, physical theories like conservation laws do not inherently admit probabilistic predictions, and so we must use what are called epistemic bridge principles to connect model predictions with the actual methods of hypothesis testing. In practice, these bridge principles are likelihood functions, error functions, or performance metrics. I propose that the reason we are faced with these problems is because we have historically failed to account for a fundamental component of basic logic - namely the portion of logic that explains how epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data. This component of Cox' (1946) calculitic logic is called information theory (Knuth, 2005), and adding information theory our hypothetico-deductive account of science yields straightforward solutions to both of the above problems. This also yields a straightforward method for dealing with Popper's (1963) problem of verisimilitude by facilitating a quantitative approach to measuring process isomorphism. In practice, this involves data assimilation. Finally, information theory allows us to reliably bound measures of epistemic uncertainty, thereby avoiding the problem of Bayesian incoherency under misspecified priors (Grünwald, 2006). I therefore propose solutions to four of the fundamental problems inherent in both hypothetico-deductive and/or Bayesian hypothesis testing. - Neyman (1957) Inductive Behavior as a Basic Concept of Philosophy of Science. - Cox (1946) Probability, Frequency and Reasonable Expectation. - Knuth (2005) Lattice Duality: The Origin of Probability and Entropy. - Grünwald (2006). Bayesian Inconsistency under Misspecification. - Popper (1963) Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.

  8. Lessons from Learning to Have Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Lindh, Thomas

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews a growing literature investigating how economic agents may learn rational expectations. Fully rational learning requires implausible initial information assumptions, therefore some form of bounded rationality has come into focus. Such learning models often converge to rational expectations equilibria within certain bounds. Convergence analysis has been much simplified by methods from adaptive control theory. Learning stability as a correspondence principle show some promise...

  9. Towards a Characterization of Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Itai Arieli

    2008-01-01

    R. J. Aumann and J. H. Drèze (2008) define a rational expectation of a player i in a game G as the expected payo of some type of i in some belief system for G in which common knowledge of rationality and common priors obtain. Our goal is to characterize the set of rational expectations in terms of the game's payoff matrix. We provide such a characterization for a specific class of strategic games, called semi-elementary, which includes Myerson's "elementary" games.

  10. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

  11. Rational expectations, risk and efficiency in energy futures markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (CA). Dept. of Economics)

    1991-04-01

    Conditional on the hypothesis that energy futures markets are efficient or rational, this paper uses Fama's regression approach to measure the information in energy futures prices about future spot prices and time varying premiums. The paper finds that the premium and expected future spot price components of energy futures prices are negatively correlated and that most of the variation in futures prices is variation in expected premiums. (author).

  12. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  13. Multiple Equilibria in Noisy Rational Expectations Economies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palvolgyi, Domotor; Venter, Gyuri

    This paper studies equilibrium uniqueness in standard noisy rational expectations economies with asymmetric or differential information a la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) and Hellwig (1980). We show that the standard linear equilibrium of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is the unique equilibrium...

  14. Rational Variability in Children's Causal Inferences: The Sampling Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denison, Stephanie; Bonawitz, Elizabeth; Gopnik, Alison; Griffiths, Thomas L.

    2013-01-01

    We present a proposal--"The Sampling Hypothesis"--suggesting that the variability in young children's responses may be part of a rational strategy for inductive inference. In particular, we argue that young learners may be randomly sampling from the set of possible hypotheses that explain the observed data, producing different hypotheses with…

  15. The rational expectations equilibrium inventory model theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    This volume consists of six essays that develop and/or apply "rational expectations equilibrium inventory models" to study the time series behavior of production, sales, prices, and inventories at the industry level. By "rational expectations equilibrium inventory model" I mean the extension of the inventory model of Holt, Modigliani, Muth, and Simon (1960) to account for: (i) discounting, (ii) infinite horizon planning, (iii) observed and unobserved by the "econometrician" stochastic shocks in the production, factor adjustment, storage, and backorders management processes of firms, as well as in the demand they face for their products; and (iv) rational expectations. As is well known according to the Holt et al. model firms hold inventories in order to: (a) smooth production, (b) smooth production changes, and (c) avoid stockouts. Following the work of Zabel (1972), Maccini (1976), Reagan (1982), and Reagan and Weitzman (1982), Blinder (1982) laid the foundations of the rational expectations equilibrium inve...

  16. Learning to Learn: A Case for the Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis in Industrialized Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desmond W. Ng

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A cobweb model is developed where the heterogeneous expectation hypothesis is examined. An agent’s heterogeneous expectation involves the development of a “higher ordered learning” process in which agents over time develop expectations that are consistent with rational expectations. In addition, as cob web models are production based systems, an agents’ heterogeneous expectations are influenced by a specialization of activities. The case of the industrialization of the U.S. hog-pork industry is used to illustrate the influence of these features on the equilibrium and non-equilibrium properties of a modified cob-web model.

  17. Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    1999-01-01

    This paper considers the testing of restrictions implied by rational expectations hypotheses in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model for I(1) variables. If the rational expectations involve one-step-ahead observations only and the coefficients are known, an explicit parameterization...... of the restrictions is found, and the maximum-likelihood estimator is derived by regression and reduced rank regression. An application is given to a present value model....

  18. Multiple Equilibria in Noisy Rational Expectations Economies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pálvölgyi, Dömötör; Venter, Gyuri

    with a continuous price function. However, we also construct a tractable class of equilibria with discontinuous prices that have very different economic implications, including (i) jumps and crashes, (ii) significant revisions in uninformed belief due to small changes in the market price, (iii) “upward......-sloping” demand curves, (iv) higher prices leading to future returns that are higher in expectation (price drift) and (v) more positively skewed. Discontinuous equilibria can be arbitrarily close to being fully-revealing. Finally, discontinuous equilibria with the same construction also exist in Hellwig (1980)....

  19. Exact Rational Expectations, Cointegration, and Reduced Rank Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    We interpret the linear relations from exact rational expectations models as restrictions on the parameters of the statistical model called the cointegrated vector autoregressive model for non-stationary variables. We then show how reduced rank regression, Anderson (1951), plays an important role...

  20. Exact rational expectations, cointegration, and reduced rank regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    We interpret the linear relations from exact rational expectations models as restrictions on the parameters of the statistical model called the cointegrated vector autoregressive model for non-stationary variables. We then show how reduced rank regression, Anderson (1951), plays an important role...

  1. Exact rational expectations, cointegration, and reduced rank regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    2008-01-01

    We interpret the linear relations from exact rational expectations models as restrictions on the parameters of the statistical model called the cointegrated vector autoregressive model for non-stationary variables. We then show how reduced rank regression, Anderson (1951), plays an important role...

  2. Fiscal Effectiveness and Debt Illusion in a Rational Expectations Model

    OpenAIRE

    Basil A. DALAMAGAS

    1993-01-01

    The question of how substitution of debt for taxes affects private sector wealth and consumption has long been an unresolved macroeconomic theory and policy dispute. The present study attempts to address this problem within a modified fiscal-illusion setting, by utilizing an explicit rational expectations optimizing model of consumer behaviour for a sample of six developed countries. The empirical evidence presented is strongly supportive of the assertion that consumers make their consumption...

  3. On the uniqueness of fully informative rational expectations equilibria

    OpenAIRE

    Peter DeMarzo; Costis Skiadas

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes two equivalent equilibrium notions under asymmetric information: risk neutral rational expectations equilibria (rn-REE), and common knowledge equilibria. We show that the set of fully informative rn-REE is a singleton, and we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of partially informative rn-REE. In a companion paper (DeMarzo and Skiadas (1996)) we show that equilibrium prices for the larger class of quasi-complete economies can be characterized as r...

  4. Using survey data on inflation expectations in the estimation of learning and rational expectations models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ormeño, A.

    2012-01-01

    Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational

  5. On a Graphical Technique for Evaluating Some Rational Expectations Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders R.

    2011-01-01

    Campbell and Shiller (1987) proposed a graphical technique for the present value model, which consists of plotting estimates of the spread and theoretical spread as calculated from the cointegrated vector autoregressive model without imposing the restrictions implied by the present value model....... In addition to getting a visual impression of the fit of the model, the purpose is to see if the two spreads are nevertheless similar as measured by correlation, variance ratio, and noise ratio. We extend these techniques to a number of rational expectation models and give a general definition of spread...

  6. The Soft Constraints Hypothesis: A Rational Analysis Approach to Resource Allocation for Interactive Behavior

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gray, Wayne D; Sims, Chris R; Schoelles, Michael J; Fu, Wai-Tat

    2006-01-01

    Soft constraints hypothesis (SCH) is a rational analysis approach that holds that the mixture of perceptual-motor and cognitive resources allocated for interactive behavior is adjusted based on temporal cost-benefit tradeoff...

  7. Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamba, H.; Seaman, T.

    2008-06-01

    This paper modifies a previously introduced class of heterogeneous agent models in a way that allows for the inclusion of different types of agent motivations and behaviours in a consistent manner. The agents operate within a highly simplified environment where they are only able to be long or short one unit of the asset. The price of the asset is influenced by both an external information stream and the demand of the agents. The current strategy of each agent is defined by a pair of moving thresholds straddling the current price. When the price crosses either of the thresholds for a particular agent, that agent switches position and a new pair of thresholds is generated. The threshold dynamics can mimic different sources of investor motivation, running the gamut from purely rational information-processing, through rational (but often undesirable) behaviour induced by perverse incentives and moral hazards, to purely psychological effects. The simplest model of this kind precisely conforms to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and this allows causal relationships to be established between actions at the agent level and violations of EMH price statistics at the global level. In particular, the effects of herding behaviour and perverse incentives are examined.

  8. Monetary and fiscal policy under bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lustenhouwer, J.E.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of this thesis is to use plausible and intuitive models of bounded rationality to give new insights in monetary and fiscal policy. Particular focus is put on the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, forward guidance, and fiscal consolidations. The thesis considers different forms

  9. Federal government and the domestic uranium market: an application of the theory of rational expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, M.W.

    1978-01-01

    Domestic uranium prices began to rise dramatically in 1973 after having experienced virtually no change for nearly seven years. This thesis puts forth the proposal that the cause of the increase was the simultaneous occurrence of several unanticipated events. It is argued here that the government's aboutface decision not to sell uranium from its stockpiles, the sudden unavailability of low-cost foreign uranium, and the coincidental occurrence of the Arab oil embargo and widespread materials shortages, caused uranium prices to rise faster and higher than was or could have been anticipated at the time. A sudden change in the federal government's enrichment contracting procedure triggered the initial increases in early 1973. The sequence of events suggest that the instability witnessed in the market was due to the occurrence of unanticipated events, in general, and unexpected changes in government policies, in particular. The policy problem is due to the fact that the federal government has, from the inception of the domestic uranium industry, shaped its structure and direction. It is clear that this influence is likely to continue. To the extent that the hypothesis is correct, the government needs to better evaluate the indirect impact of its policies upon people's expectations. In order to evaluate the hypothesis an econometric model of the domestic uranium market incorporating the theory of rational expectations is developed

  10. Comprehension priming as rational expectation for repetition: Evidence from syntactic processing

    OpenAIRE

    Myslín, Mark; Levy, Roger

    2015-01-01

    Why do comprehenders process repeated stimuli more rapidly than novel stimuli? We consider an adaptive explanation for why such facilitation may be beneficial: priming is a consequence of expectation for repetition due to rational adaptation to the environment. If occurrences of a stimulus cluster in time, given one occurrence it is rational to expect a second occurrence closely following. Leveraging such knowledge may be particularly useful in online processing of language, where pervasive c...

  11. Rationality, practice variation and person-centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

    2015-12-01

    Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' 'reflective equilibrium/considered judgment'. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. On a Numerical and Graphical Technique for Evaluating some Models Involving Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    Campbell and Shiller (1987) proposed a graphical technique for the present value model which consists of plotting the spread and theoretical spread as calculated from the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. We extend these techniques to a number of rational expectation models and give...

  13. On a numerical and graphical technique for evaluating some models involving rational expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    Campbell and Shiller (1987) proposed a graphical technique for the present value model which consists of plotting the spread and theoretical spread as calculated from the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. We extend these techniques to a number of rational expectation models and give...

  14. The Least Costs Hypothesis: A rational analysis approach to the voluntary symbolic control of attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauszek, Joseph R; Gibson, Bradley S

    2018-04-30

    Here we propose a rational analysis account of voluntary symbolic attention control-the Least Costs Hypothesis (LCH)-that construes voluntary control as a decision between intentional cue use and unguided search. Consistent with the LCH, the present study showed that this decision is sensitive to variations in cue processing efficiency. In Experiment 1, observers demonstrated a robust preference for using "easy-to-process" arrow cues but not "hard-to-process" spatial word cues to satisfy an easy visual search goal; Experiment 2 showed that this preference persisted even when the temporal costs of cue processing were neutralized. Experiment 3 showed that observers reported this cue type preference outside the context of a speeded task, and Experiment 4 showed empirical measures of this bias to be relatively stable over the course of the task. Together with previous evidence suggesting that observers' decision between intentional cue use and unguided search is also influenced by variations in unguided search efficiency, these findings suggest that voluntary symbolic attention control is mediated by ongoing metacognitive evaluations of demand that are sensitive to perceived variations in the time, effort, and opportunity costs associated with each course of action. Thus, voluntary symbolic attention control is far more complex than previously held. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Organization and Information: Firms' Governance Choices in Rational-Expectations Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Gibbons; Richard Holden; Michael Powell

    2012-01-01

    We analyze a rational-expectations model of price formation in an intermediate-good market under uncertainty. There is a continuum of firms, each consisting of a party who can reduce production cost and a party who can discover information about demand. Both parties can make specific investments at private cost, and there is a machine that either party can control. As in incomplete-contracting models, different governance structures (i.e., different allocations of control of the machine) crea...

  16. Alternative Financial Policy Rules in an Open Economy Under Rational and Adaptive Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Blackburn, Keith; Currie, David; Whittaker, R; Wren-Lewis, Simon

    1985-01-01

    The potential instability of a fixed monetary rule combined with automatic fixed stabilisers is a well-established feature of closed economy IS/LM models with wealth effects and asset accumulation. This paper examines the stability issue in a general open economy macromodel with alternative expectations mechanisms (rational or adaptive) in both the labour market and the foreign exchange market. The fixed monetary rule is found to be stabilising only in special cases, notably when post-tax rea...

  17. The impossibility of involuntary unemployment in an overlapping generations model with rational expectation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz, Christian

    1992-01-01

    If there is unemployment no matter how low the wage rate becomes, one speaks of involuntary unemployment. This phenomenon has been shown to arise in a variety of temporary or atemporal macro models with imperfect competition in the goods markets. In this paper we investigate whether the phenomeno...... of involuntary unemployment arises in a Hartian overlapping generations model with rational expectations. It does not, neither in the short nor in the long run...

  18. Comprehension priming as rational expectation for repetition: Evidence from syntactic processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myslín, Mark; Levy, Roger

    2016-02-01

    Why do comprehenders process repeated stimuli more rapidly than novel stimuli? We consider an adaptive explanation for why such facilitation may be beneficial: priming is a consequence of expectation for repetition due to rational adaptation to the environment. If occurrences of a stimulus cluster in time, given one occurrence it is rational to expect a second occurrence closely following. Leveraging such knowledge may be particularly useful in online processing of language, where pervasive clustering may help comprehenders negotiate the considerable challenge of continual expectation update at multiple levels of linguistic structure and environmental variability. We test this account in the domain of structural priming in syntax, making use of the sentential complement-direct object (SC-DO) ambiguity. We first show that sentences containing SC continuations cluster in natural language, motivating an expectation for repetition of this structure. Second, we show that comprehenders are indeed sensitive to the syntactic clustering properties of their current environment. In a series of between-groups self-paced reading studies, we find that participants who are exposed to clusters of SC sentences subsequently process repetitions of SC structure more rapidly than participants who are exposed to the same number of SCs spaced in time, and attribute the difference to the learned degree of expectation for repetition. We model this behavior through Bayesian belief update, showing that (the optimal degree of) sensitivity to clustering properties of syntactic structures is indeed learnable through experience. Comprehension priming effects are thus consistent with rational expectation for repetition based on adaptation to the linguistic environment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. ``From Fundamental Motives to Rational Expectation Equilibrium[REE, henceworth] of Indeterminacy''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksoed, Ssi, Wh-

    For ``Principle of Indeterminacy''from Heisenberg states: ``one of the fundamental cornerstone of quantum mechanics is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle''.whereas canonically conjugate quantities can be determined simultaneously only with a characteristic indeterminacy[M. Arevalo Aguilar, et.al]. Accompanying Alfred North Whitehead conclusion in ``The Aims of Education''that mathematical symbols are artificial before new meanings given, two kinds of fundamental motives: (i) expectation-expectation, (ii) expectation-certainty inherently occurs with determinacy properties of rational expectation equilibrium(REE, henceworth)- Guido Ascari & Tizano Ropele:''Trend inflation, Taylor principle & Indeterminacy'', Kiel Institute, June 2007. Furthers, relative price expression can be compare of their α and (1 - α) configurations in the expression of possible activity. Acknowledgment to Prof[asc]. Dr. Bobby Eka Gunara for ``made a rank through physics'' denotes...

  20. The Link between Health Complaints and Wind Turbines: Support for the Nocebo Expectations Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crichton, Fiona; Chapman, Simon; Cundy, Tim; Petrie, Keith J

    2014-01-01

    The worldwide expansion of wind energy has met with opposition based on concerns that the infrasound generated by wind turbines causes health problems in nearby residents. In this paper, we argue that health complaints are more likely to be explained by the nocebo response, whereby adverse effects are generated by negative expectations. When individuals expect a feature of their environment or medical treatment to produce illness or symptoms, then this may start a process where the individual looks for symptoms or signs of illness to confirm these negative expectations. As physical symptoms are common in healthy people, there is considerable scope for people to match symptoms with their negative expectations. To support this hypothesis, we draw an evidence from experimental studies that show that, during exposure to wind farm sound, expectations about infrasound can influence symptoms and mood in both positive and negative directions, depending on how expectations are framed. We also consider epidemiological work showing that health complaints have primarily been located in areas that have received the most negative publicity about the harmful effects of turbines. The social aspect of symptom complaints in a community is also discussed as an important process in increasing symptom reports. Media stories, publicity, or social discourse about the reported health effects of wind turbines are likely to trigger reports of similar symptoms, regardless of exposure. Finally, we present evidence to show that the same pattern of health complaints following negative information about wind turbines has also been found in other types of environmental concerns and scares.

  1. Peripherality, income inequality, and life expectancy: revisiting the income inequality hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Spencer

    2006-06-01

    Recent criticisms of the income inequality and health hypothesis have stressed the lack of consistent significant evidence for the stronger effects of income inequality among rich countries. Despite such criticisms, little attention has been devoted to the income-based criteria underlying the stratification of countries into rich/poor groups and whether trade patterns and world-system role provide an alternative means of stratifying groups. To compare income-based and trade-based criteria, 107 countries were grouped into four typologies: (I) high/low income, (II) OECD membership/non-membership, (III) core/non-core, and (IV) non-periphery/periphery. Each typology was tested separately for significant differences in the effects of income inequality between groups. Separate group comparison tests and regression analyses were conducted for each typology using Rodgers (1979) specification of income, income inequality, and life expectancy. Interaction terms were introduced into Rodgers specification to test whether group classification moderated the effects of income inequality on health. Results show that the effects of income inequality are stronger in the periphery than non-periphery (IV) (-0.76 vs -0.23; P income inequality and population health have assumed (i) income differences between countries best capture global stratification and (ii) the negative effects of income inequality are stronger in high-income countries. However, present findings emphasize (i) the importance of measuring global stratification according to trading patterns and (ii) the strong, negative effects of income inequality on life expectancy among peripheral populations.

  2. The Soft Constraints Hypothesis: A Rational Analysis Approach to Resource Allocation for Interactive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Gray, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Carnegie Building, 110 8th St., Troy, NY 12180. E-mail: grayw@rpi.edu Psychological Review Copyright 2006 by...the American Psychological Association 2006, Vol. 113, No. 3, 461–482 0033-295X/06/$12.00 DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.113.3.461 461 Report Documentation...analysis approach from signal-detection theorists (Geisler, 2003; Macmillan & Creelman , 2004) with rational analysis (Anderson, 1990, 1991) to present an

  3. Rational expectations and the effects of financial liberalization on price level and output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rangan Gupta

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a generalized short-term model of a small open financially repressed economy, characterized by unorganized money markets, intermediate goods imports, capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and rational expectations, to analyze the price- and output-effects of financial liberalization. The analysis shows that financial deregulation, in the form of increased rate of interest on deposits and higher cash reserve requirements, unambiguously and unconditionally reduces domestic price level, but fails to affect output. Moreover, the result does not depend on the degree of capital mobility. The paper recommends that a small open developing economy should deregulate interest rates and tighten monetary policy if reducing inflation is a priority. Such a policy, however, requires the establishment of a flexible exchange rate regime.

  4. Alcohol expectancies, perceived norms, and drinking behavior among college students: examining the reciprocal determinism hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardell, Jeffrey D; Read, Jennifer P

    2013-03-01

    Social learning mechanisms, such as descriptive norms for drinking behavior (norms) and positive alcohol expectancies (PAEs), play a major role in college student alcohol use. According to the principle of reciprocal determinism (Bandura, 1977), norms and PAEs should be reciprocally associated with alcohol use, each influencing one another over time. However, the nature of these prospective relationships for college students is in need of further investigation. This study provided the first examination of the unique reciprocal associations among norms, PAEs, and drinking together in a single model. PAEs become more stable with age, whereas norms are likely to be more dynamic upon college entry. Thus, we hypothesized that alcohol use would show stronger reciprocal associations with norms than with PAEs for college students. Students (N = 557; 67% women) completed online measures of PAEs, norms, and quantity and frequency of alcohol use in September of their first (T1), second (T2), and third (T3) years of college. Reciprocal associations were analyzed using a cross-lagged panel design. PAEs had unidirectional influences on frequency and quantity of alcohol use, with no prospective effects from alcohol use to PAEs. Reciprocal associations were observed between norms and alcohol use, but only for quantity and not for frequency. Specifically, drinking quantity prospectively predicted quantity norms and quantity norms prospectively predicted drinking quantity. This effect was observed across both years in the model. These findings support the reciprocal determinism hypothesis for norms but not for PAEs in college students and may help to inform norm-based interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Adaptation gap hypothesis: How differences between users’ expected and perceived agent functions affect their subjective impression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takanori Komatsu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available We describe an “adaptation gap” that indicates the differences between the functions of artificial agents that users expect before starting their interactions and the functions they perceive after their interactions. We investigated the effect of this adaptation gap on users’ impressions of artificial agents because any variations in impression before and after the start of an interaction determines whether the user feels that this agent is worth interacting with. The results showed that positive or negative signs of the adaptation gap and subjective impression scores of agents before the experiment significantly affected the users’ final impressions of the agents.

  6. Rational integration of noisy evidence and prior semantic expectations in sentence interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Edward; Bergen, Leon; Piantadosi, Steven T

    2013-05-14

    Sentence processing theories typically assume that the input to our language processing mechanisms is an error-free sequence of words. However, this assumption is an oversimplification because noise is present in typical language use (for instance, due to a noisy environment, producer errors, or perceiver errors). A complete theory of human sentence comprehension therefore needs to explain how humans understand language given imperfect input. Indeed, like many cognitive systems, language processing mechanisms may even be "well designed"--in this case for the task of recovering intended meaning from noisy utterances. In particular, comprehension mechanisms may be sensitive to the types of information that an idealized statistical comprehender would be sensitive to. Here, we evaluate four predictions about such a rational (Bayesian) noisy-channel language comprehender in a sentence comprehension task: (i) semantic cues should pull sentence interpretation towards plausible meanings, especially if the wording of the more plausible meaning is close to the observed utterance in terms of the number of edits; (ii) this process should asymmetrically treat insertions and deletions due to the Bayesian "size principle"; such nonliteral interpretation of sentences should (iii) increase with the perceived noise rate of the communicative situation and (iv) decrease if semantically anomalous meanings are more likely to be communicated. These predictions are borne out, strongly suggesting that human language relies on rational statistical inference over a noisy channel.

  7. Navigating the poverty of heroin addiction treatment and recovery opportunity in Kenya: access work, self-care and rationed expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Tim; Ndimbii, James; Guise, Andy; Cullen, Lucy; Ayon, Sylvia

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on the analyses of qualitative interview accounts of people who inject heroin in Kenya, we describe the narration of addiction treatment access and recovery desire in conditions characterised by a 'poverty of drug treatment opportunity'. We observe the performance of addiction recovery narrative in the face of heavy social constraints limiting access to care. Fee-based residential rehabilitation ('rehab') is the only treatment locally available and inaccessible to most. Its recovery potential is doubted, given normative expectations of relapse. Treating drug use is a product of tightly bounded agency. Individuals enact strategies to maximise their slim chances of treatment access ('access work'), develop self-care alternatives when these fail to materialise and ration their care expectations. The use of rehab as a primary means of respite and harm reduction rather than recovery and the individuation of care in the absence of an enabling recovery environment are key characteristics of drug treatment experience. The recent incorporation of 'harm reduction' into policy discourses may trouble the primacy of recovery narrative in addiction treatment and in how treatment desires are voiced. The diversification of drug treatments in combination with social interventions enabling their access are fundamental.

  8. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  9. Testing bounded rationality against full rationality in job changing behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Contini, Bruno; Morini, Matteo

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we question the hypothesis of full rationality in the context of job changing behaviour, via simple econometric explorations on microdata drawn from WHIP (Worker Histories Italian Panel). Workers' performance is compared at the end of a three-year time window that starts when choices are expressed, under the accepted notion that the main driving forces of job change are future real wages and expected job quality. Bounded rationality suggests that individuals will search for new ...

  10. Testing Bounded Rationality Against Full Rationality in Job Changing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Contini

    2008-01-01

    In this paper I question the hypothesis of full rationality in the context of job changing behaviour, via simple econometric explorations on microdata drawn from WHIP (Worker Histories Italian Panel). Workers’ performance is compared at the end of a three-year time window that starts when choices are expressed, under the accepted notion that the main driving forces of job change are future real wages and expected job quality. Bounded rationality suggests that individuals will search for new o...

  11. Gender and work-family conflict: testing the rational model and the gender role expectations model in the Spanish cultural context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo-Salguero, Antonia; Martínez-de-Lecea, José-María Salinas; del Carmen Aguilar-Luzón, María

    2012-01-01

    Gutek, Searle, and Klepa (1991) proposed two models to explain the gender differences in work-family conflict: the rational model and the gender role expectations model. Both models have mostly been tested on American and Canadian samples, and have obtained partial support. Given the cultural differences between North American countries and Spain, we should question whether the two models are equally applicable to Spanish society or whether one of them captures Spanish men and women's experience of work-family conflict better than the other. So, the aim of this study is to test which of the models better explains the gender differences in work-family conflict in the Spanish cultural context (or if, indeed, the two models apply equally well). Given the typical cultural dimensions of Spanish society, we expected to find greater support for the gender role expectations model than for the rational model. However, the results obtained in this study indicated that, while the rational model can explain the gender differences that were found, the gender role expectations model cannot capture Spanish people's work-family conflict experiences. The results are interpreted in terms of cultural dimensions characteristic of the Spanish context.

  12. Expecting the holistic regulation from Chinese medicine based on the "solar system" hypothesis of ischemic heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing; Wang, An-Lu; Xu, Hao; Shi, Da-Zhuo; Chen, Ke-Ji

    2016-11-01

    Stenosis of the coronary artery has been considered as an essential component of ischemic heart disease (IHD). Consequently, revascularization [e.g., percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass] has been the primary therapeutic approach to IHD. Such strategy has indeed revolutionized the management of IHD patients. However, not all patients with myocardial ischemia have visible coronary stenosis. Moreover, cardiovascular events occur in nearly 20% patients with stable coronary artery disease who have undergone PCI. The recently proposed "solar system" hypothesis of IHD postulates that coronary stenosis is only one (albeit important) of its features. Mechanistic contribution and clinical implication of multiple pathophysiological processes beyond coronary stenosis are highlighted in this hypothesis. On the basis of a holistic regulation and individualized medicine, Chinese medicine (CM) has been used in the real-world setting to manage a variety of diseases, including IHD, for more than two thousands years. In this article, we summarize the evidence of CM that supports the "solar system" IHD hypothesis, and argue for a comprehensive approach to IHD. At the theoretical level, the central features of this approach include a holistic view of disease and human subjects, as well as individualized medicine. At the practical level, this approach emphasizes anoxia-tolerance and self-healing.

  13. Inaugurating Rationalization: Three Field Studies Find Increased Rationalization When Anticipated Realities Become Current.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurin, Kristin

    2018-04-01

    People will often rationalize the status quo, reconstruing it in an exaggeratedly positive light. They will even rationalize the status quo they anticipate, emphasizing the upsides and minimizing the downsides of sociopolitical realities they expect to take effect. Drawing on recent findings on the psychological triggers of rationalization, I present results from three field studies, one of which was preregistered, testing the hypothesis that an anticipated reality becoming current triggers an observable boost in people's rationalizations. San Franciscans rationalized a ban on plastic water bottles, Ontarians rationalized a targeted smoking ban, and Americans rationalized the presidency of Donald Trump, more in the days immediately after these realities became current compared with the days immediately before. Additional findings show evidence for a mechanism underlying these behaviors and rule out alternative accounts. These findings carry implications for scholarship on rationalization, for understanding protest behavior, and for policymakers.

  14. What to expect from an evolutionary hypothesis for a human disease: The case of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watve, Milind; Diwekar-Joshi, Manawa

    2016-10-01

    Evolutionary medicine has a promise to bring in a conceptual revolution in medicine. However, as yet the field does not have the same theoretical rigour as that of many other fields in evolutionary studies. We discuss here with reference to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) what role an evolutionary hypothesis should play in the development of thinking in medicine. Starting with the thrifty gene hypothesis, evolutionary thinking in T2DM has undergone several transitions, modifications and refinements of the thrift family of hypotheses. In addition alternative hypotheses independent of thrift are also suggested. However, most hypotheses look at partial pictures; make selective use of supportive data ignoring inconvenient truths. Most hypotheses look at a superficial picture and avoid getting into the intricacies of underlying molecular, neuronal and physiological processes. Very few hypotheses have suggested clinical implications and none of them have been tested with randomized clinical trials. In the meanwhile the concepts in the pathophysiology of T2DM are undergoing radical changes and evolutionary hypotheses need to take them into account. We suggest an approach and a set of criteria to evaluate the relative merits of the alternative hypotheses. A number of hypotheses are likely to fail when critically evaluated against these criteria. It is possible that more than one selective process are at work in the evolution of propensity to T2DM, but the intercompatibility of the alternative selective forces and their relative contribution needs to be examined. The approach we describe could potentially lead to a sound evolutionary theory that is clinically useful and testable by randomized controlled clinical trials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  15. Why high-risk, non-expected-utility-maximising gambles can be rational and beneficial: the case of HIV cure studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchak, Lara

    2017-02-01

    Some early phase clinical studies of candidate HIV cure and remission interventions appear to have adverse medical risk-benefit ratios for participants. Why, then, do people participate? And is it ethically permissible to allow them to participate? Recent work in decision theory sheds light on both of these questions, by casting doubt on the idea that rational individuals prefer choices that maximise expected utility, and therefore by casting doubt on the idea that researchers have an ethical obligation not to enrol participants in studies with high risk-benefit ratios. This work supports the view that researchers should instead defer to the considered preferences of the participants themselves. This essay briefly explains this recent work, and then explores its application to these two questions in more detail. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  16. Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyrich, Maximilian; Sornette, Didier

    2016-04-01

    We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected traders share the same opinion. The key ingredient is the notion that a shift of position from buyer to seller of a sufficiently large group of traders can trigger a crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size of a power sa (with a>1) of the cluster sizes s, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility. The power sa of cluster sizes emerges from the super-linear dependence of group activity as a function of group size, previously documented in the literature. The crash hazard rate exhibits explosive finite time singular behaviors when the control parameter (fraction of occupied sites, or density of traders in the network) approaches the percolation threshold pc. Realistic dynamics are generated by modeling the density of traders on the percolation network by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, whose memory controls the spontaneous excursion of the control parameter close to the critical region of bubble formation. Our numerical simulations recover the main stylized properties of the JLS model with intermittent explosive super-exponential bubbles interrupted by crashes.

  17. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  18. Traditional finance : behavioral finance distinction in the context of expected utility and prospect theories

    OpenAIRE

    Tekin, Bilgehan

    2016-01-01

    Traditional finance has developed based on two fundamental assumptions, including the expected utility theory and rational choice or decision. However, this hypothesis has been criticized heavily by put forward that are not realistic enough. The basis of behavioral finance theory is based on the “prospect theory”. According to this theory individuals cannot act fully rational, they install more sense to loses than at the same amount of profit and they exhibit risk and loss aversion behaviour....

  19. Pragmatics & rationality.

    OpenAIRE

    Allott, N. E.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis is about the reconciliation of realistic views of rationality with inferential-intentional theories of communication. Grice (1957 1975) argued that working out what a speaker meant by an utterance is a matter of inferring the speaker's intentions on the presumption that she is acting rationally. This is abductive inference: inference to the best explanation for the utterance. Thus an utterance both rationalises and causes the interpretation the hearer constructs. Human rationality...

  20. Bayesian networks and boundedly rational expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Ran Spiegler

    2014-01-01

    I present a framework for analyzing decision makers with an imperfect understanding of their environment's correlation structure. The framework borrows the tool of "Bayesian networks", which is ubiquitous in statistics and artificial intelligence. In the model, a decision maker faces an objective multivariate probability distribution (his own action is one of the random variables). He is characterized by a directed acyclic graph over the set of random variables. His subjective belief filters ...

  1. Rational expectations modelling in O.R

    OpenAIRE

    Phelps, R I; Warwick, J P

    1984-01-01

    The conventional OR approach to managing a system is, in outline, firstly to create a model of the existing system, secondly, to investigate changes in the model which improve or control the behaviour of the model and thirdly, to implement these changes in the system. It is assumed that the model incorporating these changes will be a valid representation of the system after the changes, in as far as the original model was a valid representation of the original system, and can thus be used to ...

  2. Solving rational expectations models using Excel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strulik, Holger

    2004-01-01

    Problems of discrete time optimal control can be solved using backward iteration and Microsoft Excel. The author explains the method in general and shows how the basic models of neoclassical growth and real business cycles are solved......Problems of discrete time optimal control can be solved using backward iteration and Microsoft Excel. The author explains the method in general and shows how the basic models of neoclassical growth and real business cycles are solved...

  3. Baseline rationing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    The standard problem of adjudicating conflicting claims describes a situation in which a given amount of a divisible good has to be allocated among agents who hold claims against it exceeding the available amount. This paper considers more general rationing problems in which, in addition to claims...... to international protocols for the reduction of greenhouse emissions, or water distribution in drought periods. We define a family of allocation methods for such general rationing problems - called baseline rationing rules - and provide an axiomatic characterization for it. Any baseline rationing rule within...... the family is associated with a standard rule and we show that if the latter obeys some properties reflecting principles of impartiality, priority and solidarity, the former obeys them too....

  4. Adolescent rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshman, David

    2013-01-01

    Adolescents are commonly seen as irrational, a position supported to varying degrees by many developmentalists, who often appeal to recent research on adolescent brains. Careful review of relevant evidence, however, shows that (1) adults are less rational than is generally assumed, (2) adolescents (and adults) are categorically different from children with respect to the attainment of advanced levels of rationality and psychological functioning, and (3) adolescents and adults do not differ categorically from each other with respect to any rational competencies, irrational tendencies, brain structures, or neurological functioning. Development often continues in adolescence and beyond but categorical claims about adolescents as distinct from adults cannot be justified. A review of U.S. Supreme Court decisions concerning intellectual freedom, reproductive freedom, and criminal responsibility shows ongoing ambivalence and confusion about the rationality of adolescents. Developmental theory and research suggest that adolescents should be conceptualized as young adults, not immature brains, with important implications for their roles, rights, and responsibilities.

  5. Embodying rationality

    OpenAIRE

    Mastrogiorgio, Antonio; Petracca, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The current notions of bounded rationality in economics share distinctive features with Simon’s original notion, which still influences the theoretical and experimental research in the fields of choice, judgment, decision making, problem solving, and social cognition. All these notions of bounded rationality are in fact equally rooted in the information-processing approach to human cognition, expressing the view that reasoning is disembodied and that it can be reduced to the processing of abs...

  6. Rational BRDF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacanowski, Romain; Salazar Celis, Oliver; Schlick, Christophe; Granier, Xavier; Poulin, Pierre; Cuyt, Annie

    2012-11-01

    Over the last two decades, much effort has been devoted to accurately measuring Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Functions (BRDFs) of real-world materials and to use efficiently the resulting data for rendering. Because of their large size, it is difficult to use directly measured BRDFs for real-time applications, and fitting the most sophisticated analytical BRDF models is still a complex task. In this paper, we introduce Rational BRDF, a general-purpose and efficient representation for arbitrary BRDFs, based on Rational Functions (RFs). Using an adapted parametrization, we demonstrate how Rational BRDFs offer 1) a more compact and efficient representation using low-degree RFs, 2) an accurate fitting of measured materials with guaranteed control of the residual error, and 3) efficient importance sampling by applying the same fitting process to determine the inverse of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) generated from the BRDF for use in Monte-Carlo rendering.

  7. Rational emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshulam, Meir; Winter, Eyal; Ben-Shakhar, Gershon; Aharon, Itzhak

    2012-01-01

    We present here the concept of rational emotions: Emotions may be directly controlled and utilized in a conscious, analytic fashion, enabling an individual to size up a situation, to determine that a certain "mental state" is strategically advantageous and adjust accordingly. Building on the growing body of literature recognizing the vital role of emotions in determining decisions, we explore the complementary role of rational choice in choosing emotional states. Participants played the role of "recipient" in the dictator game, in which an anonymous "dictator" decides how to split an amount of money between himself and the recipient. A subset of recipients was given a monetary incentive to be angry at low-split offers. That subset demonstrated increased physiological arousal at low offers relative to high offers as well as more anger than other participants. These results provide a fresh outlook on human decision-making and contribute to the continuing effort to build more complete models of rational behavior.

  8. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  9. The Drift Burst Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Christensen, Kim; Oomen, Roel; Renò, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    The Drift Burst Hypothesis postulates the existence of short-lived locally explosive trends in the price paths of financial assets. The recent US equity and Treasury flash crashes can be viewed as two high profile manifestations of such dynamics, but we argue that drift bursts of varying magnitude are an expected and regular occurrence in financial markets that can arise through established mechanisms such as feedback trading. At a theoretical level, we show how to build drift bursts into the...

  10. Confucian Rationalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Chi-Ming

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, there is still a widely held view that the Chinese and Western modes of thought are quite distinct from each other. In particular, the Chinese mode of thought derived from Confucianism is considered as comparatively less rational than the Western one. In this article, I first argue that although the analogical mode of argumentation,…

  11. Rational valuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg Spielthenner

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Valuations are ubiquitous. We may be for or against genetically modified food; we find some politicians irresponsible; we prefer Beethoven to rock ‘n’ roll or vice versa; some enjoy bird-watching while others find it boring; and we may think that we have to tighten up on green-house gas emissions. Valuing is pervasive and often we are not even aware that we are valuing. However, many of ourvaluations are ill grounded and rationally defective. They are frequently based on misinformation, sloppy thinking, prejudice, and are biased in many ways as psychological research shows. For this reason there is widespread agreement among phi-losophers that we need an account of substantive valuational rationality, both for the theory of practical reasoning and for ethics as well. My main objectin this paper is to outline such an account and to present a principle that allows a non-technical rational criticism of valuations

  12. Rational decisions

    CERN Document Server

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  13. Rationalization: A Bibliography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrini, D. T.; Pedrini, Bonnie C.

    Rationalization was studied by Sigmund Freud and was specifically labeled by Ernest Jones. Rationalization ought to be differentiated from rational, rationality, logical analysis, etc. On the one hand, rationalization is considered a defense mechanism, on the other hand, rationality is not. Haan has done much work with self-report inventories and…

  14. Rational inattention or rational overreaction?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Browning, Martin; Hansen, Lars Gårn; Smed, Sinne

    We investigate differences in how consumers of fish react to health information in the mass media. We specify a dynamic empirical model that allows for heterogeneity in all basic parameters of consumer behavior as well as in how consumers react to information. We estimate the model using a unique...... houshold panel tracking consumption, prices, news stories and media habits over 24 quarters. We fi nd that the consumers most likely to be ’rationally ignorant’ of health effects react more dramatically to health news than the consumers who most likely are well informed....

  15. Rationality of limited rationality : some aggregate implications

    OpenAIRE

    Uri M. Possen; Mikko Puhakka

    1994-01-01

    In this paper we let economic agents choose whether to become fully rational or stay boundedly rational. Boundedly rational agents are less sophisticated in their information processing abilities. It is costly to acquire information needed to become fully rational, and thus not all agents are willing to incur those costs. We then explore the aggregate effects of endogenizing the decision whether the agent should or should not become fully rational in handling information. Since fully and boun...

  16. Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher D Carroll

    2002-01-01

    Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

  17. Rational kinematics

    CERN Document Server

    Angeles, Jorge

    1988-01-01

    A rational study of kinematics is a treatment of the subject based on invariants, i.e., quantities that remain essentially unchanged under a change of observer. An observer is understood to be a reference frame supplied with a clock (Truesdell 1966). This study will therefore include an introduction to invariants. The language of these is tensor analysis and multilinear algebra, both of which share many isomorphic relations, These subjects are treated in full detail in Ericksen (1960) and Bowen and Wang (1976), and hence will not be included here. Only a short account of notation and definitions will be presented. Moreover, definitions and basic concepts pertaining to the kinematics of rigid bodies will be also included. Although the kinematics of rigid bodies can be regarded as a particular case of the kinematics of continua, the former deserves attention on its own merits for several reasons. One of these is that it describes locally the motions undergone by continua. Another reason is that a whole area of ...

  18. Rationality in Society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flache, Andreas; Dijkstra, Jacob; Wright, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary theories of rational behavior in human society augment the orthodox model of rationality both by adding various forms of bounded rationality and relaxing the assumptions of self-interest and materialistic preferences. This entry discusses how these extensions of the theory of rational

  19. Rational choice in field archaelology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin Pavel

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In the present article I attempt to apply advances in the study of instrumental and epistemic rationality to field archaeology in order to gain insights into the ways archaeologists reason. The cognitive processes, particularly processes of decision making, that enable archaeologists to conduct the excavation in the trench have not been adequately studied so far. I take my cues from two different bodies of theory. I first inquire into the potential that rational choice theory (RCT may have in modeling archaeological behaviour, and I define subjective expected utility, which archaeologists attempt to maximize, in terms of knowledge acquisition and social gain. Following Elster’s criticism of RCT, I conclude that RCT’s standards for rational action do not correspond with those ostensibly used in field archaeology, but that instrumental rationality has a prominent role in the “archaeological experiment”. I further explore if models proposed as reaction to RCT may account for archaeological decision making. I focus on fast and frugal heuristics, and search for archaeological illustrations for some of the cognitive biases that are better documented in psychological literature. I document confirmation and congruence biases, the endowment effect, observer-expectancy bias, illusory correlation, clustering illusion, sunk cost bias, and anchoring, among others and I propose that some of these biases are used as cognitive tools by archaeologists at work and retain epistemic value. However, I find formal logic to be secondary in the development of archaeological reasoning, with default logic and defeasible logic being used instead. I emphasize scientific knowledge as an actively negotiated social product of human inquiry, and conclude that to describe rationality in field archaeology a bounded rationality model is the most promising avenue of investigation.

  20. Suicide mortality and agricultural rationalization in post-war Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäkinen, Ilkka Henrik; Stickley, Andrew

    2006-06-01

    The relationship between agricultural rationalization and suicide mortality has been little researched. On the basis of the hypothesis that agricultural rationalization leads to more suicide, this study investigated whether a general relationship could be found between structural change in agriculture and suicide mortality in post-war Europe. Due to the expected small size of the effect, the data were deliberately collected so as to maximize the variation in the independent variable. Annual national-level data on suicide mortality, the percentage of the work force in agricultural employment, and the unemployment level were collected from those countries and 10-year periods where the structural changes (reductions in employment) in agriculture between 1950 and 1995 had been most and least pronounced. In order to avoid confounders, the annual changes in the variables' values were correlated with each other, adding a control for the level of unemployment, and allowing for lagged effects. The annual changes in the levels of agricultural employment and those of suicide mortality did not covary at all. Controlling for unemployment levels did not change this, nor could any lagged effects be found. At the most general level, no causal relation between agricultural rationalization and suicide mortality was detected. This lack of a universal relation does not, however, preclude the possibility of the relationship existing given certain socio-historical circumstances.

  1. On rationally supported surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens; Juttler, B.; Sir, Z.

    2008-01-01

    We analyze the class of surfaces which are equipped with rational support functions. Any rational support function can be decomposed into a symmetric (even) and an antisymmetric (odd) part. We analyze certain geometric properties of surfaces with odd and even rational support functions....... In particular it is shown that odd rational support functions correspond to those rational surfaces which can be equipped with a linear field of normal vectors, which were discussed by Sampoli et al. (Sampoli, M.L., Peternell, M., Juttler, B., 2006. Rational surfaces with linear normals and their convolutions...... with rational surfaces. Comput. Aided Geom. Design 23, 179-192). As shown recently, this class of surfaces includes non-developable quadratic triangular Bezier surface patches (Lavicka, M., Bastl, B., 2007. Rational hypersurfaces with rational convolutions. Comput. Aided Geom. Design 24, 410426; Peternell, M...

  2. A Rational Approach to Rational Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richman, Joseph

    1992-01-01

    Describes suicide as reaction to internal and external sources of stress and the impact of life events. Notes that, in the elderly, these situations are prevalent in many who are not suicidal. Contends that much more is written about rational suicide than its alternative (rational nonsuicide). Reviews reasons for this and suggests rational…

  3. THE FRACTAL MARKET HYPOTHESIS

    OpenAIRE

    FELICIA RAMONA BIRAU

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the concept of capital market is analysed using Fractal Market Hypothesis which is a modern, complex and unconventional alternative to classical finance methods. Fractal Market Hypothesis is in sharp opposition to Efficient Market Hypothesis and it explores the application of chaos theory and fractal geometry to finance. Fractal Market Hypothesis is based on certain assumption. Thus, it is emphasized that investors did not react immediately to the information they receive and...

  4. Variability: A Pernicious Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noddings, Nel

    1992-01-01

    The hypothesis of greater male variability in test results is discussed in its historical context, and reasons feminists have objected to the hypothesis are considered. The hypothesis acquires political importance if it is considered that variability results from biological, rather than cultural, differences. (SLD)

  5. THE FRACTAL MARKET HYPOTHESIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FELICIA RAMONA BIRAU

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the concept of capital market is analysed using Fractal Market Hypothesis which is a modern, complex and unconventional alternative to classical finance methods. Fractal Market Hypothesis is in sharp opposition to Efficient Market Hypothesis and it explores the application of chaos theory and fractal geometry to finance. Fractal Market Hypothesis is based on certain assumption. Thus, it is emphasized that investors did not react immediately to the information they receive and of course, the manner in which they interpret that information may be different. Also, Fractal Market Hypothesis refers to the way that liquidity and investment horizons influence the behaviour of financial investors.

  6. Rationing medical education.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discussed the pros and cons of the application of rationing to medical education and the different ... Different types of rationing exist in healthcare professional education. ... state-of-the-art resources, technology and tutors con-.

  7. Rationing with baselines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a new operator for general rationing problems in which, besides conflicting claims, individual baselines play an important role in the rationing process. The operator builds onto ideas of composition, which are not only frequent in rationing, but also in related problems...... such as bargaining, choice, and queuing. We characterize the operator and show how it preserves some standard axioms in the literature on rationing. We also relate it to recent contributions in such literature....

  8. CONTRIBUTIONS TO RATIONAL APPROXIMATION,

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some of the key results of linear Chebyshev approximation theory are extended to generalized rational functions. Prominent among these is Haar’s...linear theorem which yields necessary and sufficient conditions for uniqueness. Some new results in the classic field of rational function Chebyshev...Furthermore a Weierstrass type theorem is proven for rational Chebyshev approximation. A characterization theorem for rational trigonometric Chebyshev approximation in terms of sign alternation is developed. (Author)

  9. Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Elqayam, Shira

    2017-10-01

    Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people "should" or "ought to" make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision-making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence-based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision-making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret-based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta-rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is "rational" behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context-poor situations, such as policy decision-making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision-making, whereas in the context

  10. Testing the junk-food hypothesis on marine birds: Effects of prey type on growth and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Marc D.; Piatt, John F.; Roby, D.D.

    2006-01-01

    The junk-food hypothesis attributes declines in productivity of marine birds and mammals to changes in the species of prey they consume and corresponding differences in nutritional quality of those prey. To test this hypothesis nestling Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) were raised in captivity under controlled conditions to determine whether the type and quality of fish consumed by young seabirds constrains their growth and development. Some nestlings were fed rations of Capelin (Mallotus villosus), Herring (Clupea pallasi) or Sand Lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) and their growth was compared with nestlings raised on equal biomass rations of Walleye Pollock (Theragra chalcograma). Nestlings fed rations of herring, sand lance, or capelin experienced higher growth increments than nestlings fed pollock. The energy density of forage fish fed to nestlings had a marked effect on growth increments and could be expected to have an effect on pre- and post-fledging survival of nestlings in the wild. These results provide empirical support for the junk-food hypothesis.

  11. Heterogeneity, Bounded Rationality and Market Dysfunctionality

    OpenAIRE

    Xue-Zhong He; Lei Shi

    2008-01-01

    As the main building blocks of the modern finance theory, homogeneity and rational expectation have faced difficulty in explaining many market anomalies, stylized factors, and market inefficiency in empirical studies. As a result, heterogeneity and bounded rationality have been used as an alterative paradigm of asset price dynamics and this paradigm has been widely recognized recently in both academic and financial market practitioners. Within the framework of Chiarella, Dieci and He (2006a, ...

  12. Physiopathological Hypothesis of Cellulite

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Godoy, José Maria Pereira; de Godoy, Maria de Fátima Guerreiro

    2009-01-01

    A series of questions are asked concerning this condition including as regards to its name, the consensus about the histopathological findings, physiological hypothesis and treatment of the disease. We established a hypothesis for cellulite and confirmed that the clinical response is compatible with this hypothesis. Hence this novel approach brings a modern physiological concept with physiopathologic basis and clinical proof of the hypothesis. We emphasize that the choice of patient, correct diagnosis of cellulite and the technique employed are fundamental to success. PMID:19756187

  13. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  14. Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision‐making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elqayam, Shira

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people “should” or “ought to” make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision‐making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence‐based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision‐making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret‐based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta‐rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is “rational” behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context‐poor situations, such as policy decision‐making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision

  15. Life Origination Hydrate Hypothesis (LOH-Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Ostrovskii

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper develops the Life Origination Hydrate Hypothesis (LOH-hypothesis, according to which living-matter simplest elements (LMSEs, which are N-bases, riboses, nucleosides, nucleotides, DNA- and RNA-like molecules, amino-acids, and proto-cells repeatedly originated on the basis of thermodynamically controlled, natural, and inevitable processes governed by universal physical and chemical laws from CH4, niters, and phosphates under the Earth's surface or seabed within the crystal cavities of the honeycomb methane-hydrate structure at low temperatures; the chemical processes passed slowly through all successive chemical steps in the direction that is determined by a gradual decrease in the Gibbs free energy of reacting systems. The hypothesis formulation method is based on the thermodynamic directedness of natural movement and consists ofan attempt to mentally backtrack on the progression of nature and thus reveal principal milestones alongits route. The changes in Gibbs free energy are estimated for different steps of the living-matter origination process; special attention is paid to the processes of proto-cell formation. Just the occurrence of the gas-hydrate periodic honeycomb matrix filled with LMSEs almost completely in its final state accounts for size limitation in the DNA functional groups and the nonrandom location of N-bases in the DNA chains. The slowness of the low-temperature chemical transformations and their “thermodynamic front” guide the gross process of living matter origination and its successive steps. It is shown that the hypothesis is thermodynamically justified and testable and that many observed natural phenomena count in its favor.

  16. Rational speculative bubbles: A critical view

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radonjić Ognjen

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the theory of rational bubbles, the bubble is present whenever asset prices progressively diverge from their fundamental value, which occurs because agents expect that asset prices will continue to grow exponentially (self-fulfilling prophecies far in the future and consistently, which promises the realization of ever larger capital gains. In our opinion, the basic shortcoming of this theory refers to the assumption that all market agents are perfectly informed and rational and, accordingly, form homogeneous expectations. The model does not explain decision-making processes or expectation formation, nor does it detect potential psychological and institutional factors that might significantly influence decision making processes and market participants’ reactions to news. Since assumptions of the model critically determine its validity, we conclude that comprehensiveness of the rational bubble model is, to put it mildly, limited.

  17. Does knowing that a suicide was "rational" influence grief?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brazda, Geoffrey F; Range, Lillian M; Remley, Theodore P; White, Carolyn C

    2018-03-15

    Counseling professionals and graduate students (N = 117) recruited online read a randomly assigned one-paragraph vignette about either a non-rational or rational suicide involving an imaginary loved one. Then, they completed the Grief Experiences Questionnaire (GEQ) about how they would feel. The non-rational suicide group expected significantly more search for explanation than the rational suicide group, but were not significantly different on the other six GEQ subscales. All participants expected few distressing reactions to either vignette, suggesting a one-paragraph vignette may not be sufficient to induce the kind of grief many experience when a loved one dies by suicide.

  18. Bounded Rationality and Budgeting

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrahim, Mukdad

    2016-01-01

    This article discusses the theory of bounded rationality which had been introduced by Herbert Simon in the 1950s. Simon introduced the notion of bounded rationality stating that while decision-makers strive for rationality, they are limited by the effect of the environment, their information process capacity and by the constraints on their information storage and retrieval capabilities. Moreover, this article tries to specifically blend this notion into budgeting, using the foundations of inc...

  19. Rational Multiparty Computation

    OpenAIRE

    Wallrabenstein, John Ross

    2014-01-01

    The field of rational cryptography considers the design of cryptographic protocols in the presence of rational agents seeking to maximize local utility functions. This departs from the standard secure multiparty computation setting, where players are assumed to be either honest or malicious. ^ We detail the construction of both a two-party and a multiparty game theoretic framework for constructing rational cryptographic protocols. Our framework specifies the utility function assumptions neces...

  20. Rationality and Emotions in Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Markič

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Decision making is traditionally viewed as a rational process where reason calculates the best way to achieve the goal. Investigations from different areas of cognitive science have shown that human decisions and actions are much more influenced by intuition and emotional responses then it was previously thought. In this paper I examine the role of emotion in decision making, particularly Damasio’s hypothesis of somatic markers and Green’s dual process theory of moral judgment. I conclude the paper with the discussion of the threat that deliberation and conscious rationality is an illusion.

  1. Rationality and drug use: an experimental approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blondel, Serge; Lohéac, Youenn; Rinaudo, Stéphane

    2007-05-01

    In rational addiction theory, higher discount rates encourage drug use. We test this hypothesis in the general framework of rationality and behaviour under risk. We do so using an experimental design with real monetary incentives. The decisions of 34 drug addicts are compared with those of a control group. The decisions of drug users (DU) are not any less consistent with standard theories of behaviour over time and under risk. Further, there is no difference in the estimated discount rate between drug users and the control group, but the former do appear to be more risk-seeking.

  2. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  3. Determinants of Actor Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellegaard, Chris

    Industrial companies must exercise influence on their suppliers (or supplier actors). Actor rationality is a central theme connected to this management task. In this article, relevant literature is studied with the purpose of shedding light on determinants of actor rationality. Two buyer-supplier...... relations are investigated in a multiple case study, leading to the proposal of various additional factors that determine and shape actor rationality. Moreover a conceptual model of rationality determinants in the buyer-supplier relation is proposed, a model that may help supply managers analyse...

  4. Hypothesis analysis methods, hypothesis analysis devices, and articles of manufacture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P [Richland, WA; Cowell, Andrew J [Kennewick, WA; Gregory, Michelle L [Richland, WA; Baddeley, Robert L [Richland, WA; Paulson, Patrick R [Pasco, WA; Tratz, Stephen C [Richland, WA; Hohimer, Ryan E [West Richland, WA

    2012-03-20

    Hypothesis analysis methods, hypothesis analysis devices, and articles of manufacture are described according to some aspects. In one aspect, a hypothesis analysis method includes providing a hypothesis, providing an indicator which at least one of supports and refutes the hypothesis, using the indicator, associating evidence with the hypothesis, weighting the association of the evidence with the hypothesis, and using the weighting, providing information regarding the accuracy of the hypothesis.

  5. On the Keyhole Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Kaare B.; Kidmose, Preben; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2017-01-01

    simultaneously recorded scalp EEG. A cross-validation procedure was employed to ensure unbiased estimates. We present several pieces of evidence in support of the keyhole hypothesis: There is a high mutual information between data acquired at scalp electrodes and through the ear-EEG "keyhole," furthermore we......We propose and test the keyhole hypothesis that measurements from low dimensional EEG, such as ear-EEG reflect a broadly distributed set of neural processes. We formulate the keyhole hypothesis in information theoretical terms. The experimental investigation is based on legacy data consisting of 10...

  6. Experiments expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Gorini, B; Meschi, E

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the expectations and the constraints of the experiments relatively to the commissioning procedure and the running conditions for the 2015 data taking period. The views about the various beam parameters for the p-p period, like beam energy, maximum pileup, bunch spacing and luminosity limitation in IP2 and IP8, are discussed. The goals and the constraints of the 2015 physics program are also presented, including the heavy ions period as well as the special...

  7. Towards a classification of rational Hopf algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, J.; Ganchev, A.; Vecsernyes, P.

    1994-02-01

    Rational Hopf algebras, i.e. certain quasitriangular weak quasi-Hopf *-algebras, are expected to describe the quantum symmetry of rational field theories. In this paper methods are developed which allow for a classification of all rational Hopf algebras that are compatible with some prescribed set of fusion rules. The algebras are parametrized by the solutions of the square, pentagon and hexagon identities. As examples, we classify all solutions for fusion rules with not more than three sectors, as well as for the level three affine A 1 (1) fusion rules. We also establish several general properties of rational Hopf algebras and present a graphical description of the coassociator in terms of labelled tetrahedra. The latter construction allows to make contact with conformal field theory fusing matrices and with invariants of three-manifolds and topological lattice field theory. (orig.)

  8. Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The final rules adopted by the President for a Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan are presented. The plan provides that eligibility for ration allotments will be determined primarily on the basis of motor vehicle registrations, taking into account historical differences in the use of gasoline among states. The regulations also provide authority for supplemental allotments to firms so that their allotment will equal a specified percentage of gasoline use during a base period. Priority classifications, i.e., agriculture, defense, etc., are established to assure adequate gasoline supplies for designated essential services. Ration rights must be provided by end-users to their suppliers for each gallon sold. DOE will regulate the distribution of gasoline at the wholesale level according to the transfer by suppliers of redeemed ration rights and the gasoline allocation regulations. Ration rights are transferable. A ration banking system is created to facilitate transfers of ration rights. Each state will be provided with a reserve of ration rights to provide for hardship needs and to alleviate inequities. (DC)

  9. Two Concepts of Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danny Frederick

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The dominant tradition in Western philosophy sees rationality as dictating. Thus rationality may require that we believe the best explanation and simple conceptual truths and that we infer in accordance with evident rules of inference. I argue that, given what we know about the growth of knowledge, this authoritarian concept of rationality leads to absurdities and should be abandoned. I then outline a libertarian concept of rationality, derived from Popper, which eschews the dictates and which sees a rational agent as one who questions, criticises, conjectures and experiments. I argue that, while the libertarian approach escapes the absurdities of the authoritarian, it requires two significant developments and an important clarification to be made fully consistent with itself.

  10. Exploring rationality in schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Revsbech, Rasmus; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Owen, Gareth

    2015-01-01

    Background Empirical studies of rationality (syllogisms) in patients with schizophrenia have obtained different results. One study found that patients reason more logically if the syllogism is presented through an unusual content. Aims To explore syllogism-based rationality in schizophrenia. Meth...... differences became non-significant. Conclusions When taking intelligence and neuropsychological performance into account, patients with schizophrenia and controls perform similarly on syllogism tests of rationality.......Background Empirical studies of rationality (syllogisms) in patients with schizophrenia have obtained different results. One study found that patients reason more logically if the syllogism is presented through an unusual content. Aims To explore syllogism-based rationality in schizophrenia. Method...... Thirty-eight first-admitted patients with schizophrenia and 38 healthy controls solved 29 syllogisms that varied in presentation content (ordinary v. unusual) and validity (valid v. invalid). Statistical tests were made of unadjusted and adjusted group differences in models adjusting for intelligence...

  11. Irrational Rationality of Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Nalbandov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The present article deals with the ontological problem of applying the rational choice frameworks to the study of terrorism. It testing the application of the rational choice to the “old” (before the end of the Cold War and the “new” (after the end of the Cold War terrorisms. It starts with analyzing the fundamentals of rationality and applies it at two levels: the individual (actors and group (collective via two outlooks: tactical (short-term and strategic (long-term. The main argument of the article is that while the “old” terrorism can be explained by the rational choice theory its “new” version represents a substantial departure from rationality.

  12. Respect for rational autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Rebecca L

    2009-12-01

    The standard notion of autonomy in medical ethics does not require that autonomous choices not be irrational. The paper gives three examples of seemingly irrational patient choices and discusses how a rational autonomy analysis differs from the standard view. It then considers whether a switch to the rational autonomy view would lead to overriding more patient decisions but concludes that this should not be the case. Rather, a determination of whether individual patient decisions are autonomous is much less relevant than usually considered in determining whether health care providers must abide by these decisions. Furthermore, respect for rational autonomy entails strong positive requirements of respect for the autonomy of the person as a rational decision maker. The rationality view of autonomy is conceptually stronger than the standard view, allows for a more nuanced understanding of the practical moral calculus involved in respecting patient autonomy, and promotes positive respect for patient autonomy.

  13. Rationality and Emotions in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Markic

    2009-01-01

    Decision making is traditionally viewed as a rational process where reason calculates the best way to achieve the goal. Investigations from different areas of cognitive science have shown that human decisions and actions are much more influenced by intuition and emotional responses then it was previously thought. In this paper I examine the role of emotion in decision making, particularly Damasio’s hypothesis of somatic markers and Green’s dual process theory of moral judgment. I conclude the...

  14. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  15. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  16. Revisiting the Dutch hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Dirkje S.; Weiss, Scott T.; van den Berge, Maarten; Kerstjens, Huib A. M.; Koppelman, Gerard H.

    The Dutch hypothesis was first articulated in 1961, when many novel and advanced scientific techniques were not available, such as genomics techniques for pinpointing genes, gene expression, lipid and protein profiles, and the microbiome. In addition, computed tomographic scans and advanced analysis

  17. The Lehman Sisters Hypothesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.P. van Staveren (Irene)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ This article explores the Lehman Sisters Hypothesis. It reviews empirical literature about gender differences in behavioral, experimental, and neuro-economics as well as in other fields of behavioral research. It discusses gender differences along three dimensions of

  18. History of Economic Rationalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book concentrates upon how economic rationalities have been embedded into particular historical practices, cultures, and moral systems. Through multiple case-studies, situated in different historical contexts of the modern West, the book shows that the development of economic rationalities...... takes place in the meeting with other regimes of thought, values, and moral discourses. The book offers new and refreshing insights, ranging from the development of early economic thinking to economic aspects and concepts in the works of classical thinkers such as Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Karl Marx......, to the role of economic reasoning in contemporary policies of art and health care. With economic rationalities as the read thread, the reader is offered a unique chance of historical self-awareness and recollection of how economic rationality became the powerful ideological and moral force that it is today....

  19. Rationing medical education.

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discussed the pros and cons of the application of rationing to medical education and the different ... Even though some stakeholders in medical education might be taken aback at .... Walsh K. Online educational tools to improve the.

  20. Crab Rationalization Permit Program

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Crab Rationalization Program (Program) allocates BSAI crab resources among harvesters, processors, and coastal communities. The North Pacific Fishery Management...

  1. Community expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraemer, L.

    2004-01-01

    Historically, the relationship between the nuclear generator and the local community has been one of stability and co-operation. However in more recent times (2000-2003) the nuclear landscape has had several major issues that directly effect the local nuclear host communities. - The associations mandate is to be supportive of the nuclear industry through ongoing dialogue, mutual cooperation and education, - To strengthen community representation with the nuclear industry and politically through networking with other nuclear host communities. As a result of these issues, the Mayors of a number of communities started having informal meetings to discuss the issues at hand and how they effect their constituents. These meetings led to the official formation of the CANHC with representation from: In Canada it is almost impossible to discuss decommissioning and dismantling of Nuclear Facilities without also discussing Nuclear Waste disposal for reasons that I will soon make clear. Also I would like to briefly touch on how and why expectation of communities may differ by geography and circumstance. (author)

  2. THE HICKSIAN RATIONAL CONSUMER

    OpenAIRE

    Manuel FERNÁNDEZ-GRELA

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to trace the evolution of the concept of ''rational consumer'' in Hicks's writings. After being one of the pioneers in the introduction of rationality assumptions about consumer behaviour in economic models, Hicks gradually developed a sceptical view about some of the uses to which those assumptions were put into. The focus of the paper is on continuity in Hicksian views, providing a picture of gradual changes in the long series of Hicks's works

  3. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-15

    These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ2 which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H0.

  4. Hypothesis in research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eudaldo Enrique Espinoza Freire

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It is intended with this work to have a material with the fundamental contents, which enable the university professor to formulate the hypothesis, for the development of an investigation, taking into account the problem to be solved. For its elaboration, the search of information in primary documents was carried out, such as thesis of degree and reports of research results, selected on the basis of its relevance with the analyzed subject, current and reliability, secondary documents, as scientific articles published in journals of recognized prestige, the selection was made with the same terms as in the previous documents. It presents a conceptualization of the updated hypothesis, its characterization and an analysis of the structure of the hypothesis in which the determination of the variables is deepened. The involvement of the university professor in the teaching-research process currently faces some difficulties, which are manifested, among other aspects, in an unstable balance between teaching and research, which leads to a separation between them.

  5. Development of rations for the enhanced survival of salmon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.D.; Lagasse, J.P.

    1990-12-01

    The nutritional quality of feed plays an important role in determining the health and ''fitness'' of smolts. Commercial fish meal, the major source of protein in salmon rations, may be reduced in quality from poor drying techniques during manufacture. Dietary stress in the hatchery may result. This investigation tests the hypothesis that protein quality of fish rations can influence the survival of smolts and the ultimate return of adults. The test involves a comparison between performances of coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) reared on rations containing very high quality protein derived from vacuum dried meals and those of fish reared on commercial rations, with commercial fish meal as a source of protein. Survival and return of several brood years of test and control fish are used to measure the influence of ration on survival. This report includes recovery data from these marked fish collected 1982 through September 1990

  6. Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan. Contingency gasoline rationing regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-02-01

    The Economic Regulatory Administration issues final rules with respect to standby gasoline rationing. The plan is designed for and would be used only in the event of a severe gasoline shortage. The plan provides that eligibility for ration allotments will be primarily on the basis of motor vehicle registrations. DOE will mail government ration checks to the parties named in a national vehicle registration file to be maintained by DOE. Ration recipients may cash these checks for ration coupons at various designated coupon issuance points. Retail outlets and other suppliers will be required to redeem the ration coupons received in exchange for gasoline sold. Supplemental gas will be given to high-priority activities. A ration banking system will be established with two separate and distinct of ration accounts: retail outlets and other suppliers will open redemption accounts for the deposit of redeemed ration rights; and individuals or firms may open ration rights accounts, which will operate in much the same manner as monetary checking accounts. A white market will be permitted for the sale of transfer of ration rights. A percentage of the total ration rights to be issued will be reserved for distribution to the states as a State Ration Reserve, to be used by the states primarily for the relief of hardship. A National Ration Reserave will also be established. All sections of the Standby Gasoline Rationing Regulations are analyzed. (MCW)

  7. Game interrupted: The rationality of considering the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brandon Almy

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The ``problem of points'', introduced by Paccioli in 1494 and solved by Pascal and Fermat 160 years later, inspired the modern concept of probability. Incidentally, the problem also shows that rational decision-making requires the consideration of future events. We show that naive responses to the problem of points are more future oriented and thus more rational in this sense when the problem itself is presented in a future frame instead of the canonical past frame. A simple nudge is sufficient to make decisions more rational. We consider the implications of this finding for hypothesis testing and predictions of replicability.

  8. Lying for the Greater Good: Bounded Rationality in a Team

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oktay Sürücü

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the interaction between fully and boundedly rational agents in situations where their interests are perfectly aligned. The cognitive limitations of the boundedly rational agent do not allow him to fully understand the market conditions and lead him to take non-optimal decisions in some situations. Using categorization to model bounded rationality, we show that the fully rational agent can nudge, i.e., he can manipulate the information he sends and decrease the expected loss caused by the boundedly rational agent. Assuming different types for the boundedly rational agent, who differ only in the categories used, we show that the fully rational agent may learn the type of the boundedly rational agent along their interaction. Using this additional information, the outcome can be improved and the amount of manipulated information can be decreased. Furthermore, as the length of the interaction increases the probability that the fully rational agent learns the type of the boundedly rational agent grows

  9. Role Of Expectancy Manipulation In Systematic Desensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, H. Alan

    1973-01-01

    Expectancy, relaxation, and hierarchy content were manipulated. Findings did not support the hypothesis that expectancy was the only factor in desensitization, but did clarify the role of expectancy vis-a-vis the counterconditioning elements typically discussed in the literature. (Author)

  10. Techno-Optimism and Rational Superstition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilson, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    our common understanding of reason and rationality? To adopt rational expectations about the world, after all, should we not attempt to avoid the emotional over-determination of our assessments? I show that applied reason is conceptually entangled with this superstitious optimism in the continued...... of retro-causation, where the future is held to somehow have a retroactive effect on the past. This suggests, I argue, that the underlying mechanism by which techno-optimism is supposed to be instrumental in bringing about the future is fundamentally superstitious. But does this superstition not go against...... successes of technology. The article thus reveals a curious sense in which reason is intrinsically superstitious. I offer an evolutionary explanation for this, showing that the biological origins of reason will by nature tend to produce rational agents which are superstitiously bound to realism...

  11. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  12. A discussion of theoretical and practical rationality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlstroem, B. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland). VTT Automation

    1999-12-01

    Theoretical rationality as defined in Expected Utility Theory and amended with other considerations gives a good basis for decision making. One should however always keep in mind that practical rationality often is far more complicated. People use their everyday experience when placed before new problems and this may lead to apparently irrational choices which on a closer scrutiny may be completely rational. Theories in human decision making unfortunately becomes untestable, firstly because a theory taking all considerations into account would be to complex to be practical and secondly because the data needed to test the theory cannot be collected. The benefit of EUT is that it is simple and straightforward as compared with competing theories. In the natural sciences rationality is often seen simply as a problem of optimisation. This view is practical, but it has to include also psychological and sociological considerations. The apparent controversy between natural and behavioural sciences could at least in principle be resolved by a better understanding of the complexity of human rationality. The human mind does not work in isolation, but it is adapted to a social community and a continuously changing environment. Understanding all components of human rationality is a challenge which cannot be solved on a short term basis. An important part of human rationality is connected to the intricate balance between individual and societal utility. The human mind has over thousands of years learnt to resolve that balance, but in the modern society there are decisions which may not be solvable with an intuitive approach and a strategy of trial and error. For these decisions more solid theories of rationality will be needed. EUT can in spite of its dismerits be used as the backbone for such a theory, but it has to be extended with better explanations of both individual and social rationality. If this understanding of the practical aspects of human rationality can be reached

  13. A discussion of theoretical and practical rationality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahlstroem, B.

    1999-01-01

    Theoretical rationality as defined in Expected Utility Theory and amended with other considerations gives a good basis for decision making. One should however always keep in mind that practical rationality often is far more complicated. People use their everyday experience when placed before new problems and this may lead to apparently irrational choices which on a closer scrutiny may be completely rational. Theories in human decision making unfortunately becomes untestable, firstly because a theory taking all considerations into account would be to complex to be practical and secondly because the data needed to test the theory cannot be collected. The benefit of EUT is that it is simple and straightforward as compared with competing theories. In the natural sciences rationality is often seen simply as a problem of optimisation. This view is practical, but it has to include also psychological and sociological considerations. The apparent controversy between natural and behavioural sciences could at least in principle be resolved by a better understanding of the complexity of human rationality. The human mind does not work in isolation, but it is adapted to a social community and a continuously changing environment. Understanding all components of human rationality is a challenge which cannot be solved on a short term basis. An important part of human rationality is connected to the intricate balance between individual and societal utility. The human mind has over thousands of years learnt to resolve that balance, but in the modern society there are decisions which may not be solvable with an intuitive approach and a strategy of trial and error. For these decisions more solid theories of rationality will be needed. EUT can in spite of its dismerits be used as the backbone for such a theory, but it has to be extended with better explanations of both individual and social rationality. If this understanding of the practical aspects of human rationality can be reached

  14. [Dilemma of null hypothesis in ecological hypothesis's experiment test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ji

    2016-06-01

    Experimental test is one of the major test methods of ecological hypothesis, though there are many arguments due to null hypothesis. Quinn and Dunham (1983) analyzed the hypothesis deduction model from Platt (1964) and thus stated that there is no null hypothesis in ecology that can be strictly tested by experiments. Fisher's falsificationism and Neyman-Pearson (N-P)'s non-decisivity inhibit statistical null hypothesis from being strictly tested. Moreover, since the null hypothesis H 0 (α=1, β=0) and alternative hypothesis H 1 '(α'=1, β'=0) in ecological progresses are diffe-rent from classic physics, the ecological null hypothesis can neither be strictly tested experimentally. These dilemmas of null hypothesis could be relieved via the reduction of P value, careful selection of null hypothesis, non-centralization of non-null hypothesis, and two-tailed test. However, the statistical null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) should not to be equivalent to the causality logistical test in ecological hypothesis. Hence, the findings and conclusions about methodological studies and experimental tests based on NHST are not always logically reliable.

  15. Consumer rationality in choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Conlon, B.J.

    2001-01-01

    The dissertation concentrates on consumer choice and the ability of current modelling approaches to capture the underlying behaviour of the individual decision-makers. The standard assumption of a rational utility maximising individual and its implications for observed behaviour are examined and

  16. Universal and Relative Rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel Goldberg

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I illustrate how a basic kind of universal rationality can be profitably combined with undeniable instances of relativism. I do so by engaging Michael Friedman’s recent response to a challenge from Thomas Kuhn.

  17. The rational complementarity problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Schumacher, J.M.; Weiland, S.

    1999-01-01

    An extension of the linear complementarity problem (LCP) of mathematical programming is the so-called rational complementarity problem (RCP). This problem occurs if complementarity conditions are imposed on input and output variables of linear dynamical input/state/output systems. The resulting

  18. Rational equity bubbles

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Ge

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the existence of a bubble in the pricing of an asset that pays positive dividends. I show that rational bubbles can exist in a growing economy. The existence of bubbles depends on the relative magnitudes of risk aversion to consumption and to wealth. Furthermore, I examine how an exogenous shock in technology might trigger bubbles.

  19. Ideal Theory, Real Rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Understanding rationality and power are key to understanding actual political and administrative behavior. Political and administrative theory that ignores this fact stand in danger of being at best irrelevant or, at worst part of the problem it whishes to solve. The paper presents Jürgen Habermas...

  20. Diagnosis, Dogmatism, and Rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabinowitz, Jonathan; Efron, Noah J.

    1997-01-01

    Presents findings suggesting that misdiagnoses frequently stem from flaws in human information processing, particularly in collecting and using information. Claims that improved diagnostic tools will not remedy the problem. Drawing on the work of Karl Popper and Robin Collingwood, proposes operational principles to ensure a rational diagnostic…

  1. Rational Emotive Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaus, William

    1977-01-01

    Rational Emotive Education--an outgrowth of theories developed by Albert Ellis--is a teaching design of mental health concepts and problem-solving activities designed to help students to approach and cope with their problems through experiential learning, via a structured, thematic sequence of emotive education lessons. (MJB)

  2. Hegel's phenomenology of rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huggler, Jørgen

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this chapter is to elucidate Hegel's conception of rationality in the Phänomenologie des Geistes (1807), and to defend the thesis that he is an author engaged in discussion with a wide variety of sources. He uses sceptical reasoning to form a line of argument with a necessary progression...

  3. Moral Credentialing and the Rationalization of Misconduct

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Ryan P.; Tamborski, Michael; Wang, Xiaoqian; Barnes, Collin D.; Mumford, Michael D.; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D.

    2010-01-01

    Recent studies lead to the paradoxical conclusion that the act of affirming one’s egalitarian or pro-social values and virtues might subsequently facilitate prejudiced or self-serving behavior, an effect previously referred to as “moral credentialing.” The present study extends this paradox to the domain of academic misconduct and investigates the hypothesis that such an effect might be limited by the extent to which misbehavior is rationalizable. Using a paradigm designed to investigate deliberative and rationalized forms of cheating (von Hippel, Lakin, & Shakarchi, 2005), we found that when participants had credentialed themselves (versus a non-close acquaintance) via a set of hypothetical moral dilemmas, they were more likely to cheat on a subsequent math task, but only if cheating was highly rationalizable. When cheating was difficult to rationalize, moral credentialing had almost no impact on cheating. PMID:21503267

  4. Heterogeneity and the (de)stabilizing role of rationality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We analyze Cournot oligopolies with heterogeneous firms of generic size. • Rational and naive players are considered. • Stability with respect to oligopoly composition is studied. • In some settings, increasing the rational firms fraction introduces instability. - Abstract: In this paper we study oligopolies of generic size consisting of heterogeneous firms, which adopt best response adjustment mechanisms with either perfect foresight (rational firms) or static expectations (naive firms). Assuming an isoelastic demand function and possibly different marginal costs for the two groups of firms, we focus on the local stability of the Nash equilibrium. We show that, with respect to the oligopoly composition, described in terms of the fraction of rational firms, different scenarios are possible. We find that a high rationality degree may not always guarantee stability, in particular when rational firms have sufficiently larger marginal costs. In fact, in this situation, increasing the fraction of rational firms can even introduce instability. Besides the usual scenarios in which replacing some naive firms with rational ones leads to a stabilization of (or at least keeps unchanged) the dynamics, we provide a family of situations, characterized by costs ratio favorable to naive firms, in which equilibrium loses its stability when naive firms are replaced by rational ones. The results we present are both analytical and simulative.

  5. The Bergschrund Hypothesis Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, J. W.; Cuffey, K. M.; MacGregor, K. R.

    2009-12-01

    After Willard Johnson descended into the Lyell Glacier bergschrund nearly 140 years ago, he proposed that the presence of the bergschrund modulated daily air temperature fluctuations and enhanced freeze-thaw processes. He posited that glaciers, through their ability to birth bergschrunds, are thus able to induce rapid cirque headwall retreat. In subsequent years, many researchers challenged the bergschrund hypothesis on grounds that freeze-thaw events did not occur at depth in bergschrunds. We propose a modified version of Johnson’s original hypothesis: that bergschrunds maintain subfreezing temperatures at values that encourage rock fracture via ice lensing because they act as a cold air trap in areas that would otherwise be held near zero by temperate glacial ice. In support of this claim we investigated three sections of the bergschrund at the West Washmawapta Glacier, British Columbia, Canada, which sits in an east-facing cirque. During our bergschrund reconnaissance we installed temperature sensors at multiple elevations, light sensors at depth in 2 of the 3 locations and painted two 1 m2 sections of the headwall. We first emphasize bergschrunds are not wanting for ice: verglas covers significant fractions of the headwall and icicles dangle from the base of bödens or overhanging rocks. If temperature, rather than water availability, is the limiting factor governing ice-lensing rates, our temperature records demonstrate that the bergschrund provides a suitable environment for considerable rock fracture. At the three sites (north, west, and south walls), the average temperature at depth from 9/3/2006 to 8/6/2007 was -3.6, -3.6, and -2.0 °C, respectively. During spring, when we observed vast amounts of snow melt trickle in to the bergschrund, temperatures averaged -3.7, -3.8, and -2.2 °C, respectively. Winter temperatures are even lower: -8.5, -7.3, and -2.4 °C, respectively. Values during the following year were similar. During the fall, diurnal

  6. The Drift Burst Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Kim; Oomen, Roel; Renò, Roberto

    are an expected and regular occurrence in financial markets that can arise through established mechanisms such as feedback trading. At a theoretical level, we show how to build drift bursts into the continuous-time Itô semi-martingale model in such a way that the fundamental arbitrage-free property is preserved......, currencies and commodities. We find that the majority of identified drift bursts are accompanied by strong price reversals and these can therefore be regarded as “flash crashes” that span brief periods of severe market disruption without any material longer term price impacts....

  7. Capital Requirements and Credit Rationing

    OpenAIRE

    Itai Agur

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the trade-off between financial stability and credit rationing that arises when increasing capital requirements. It extends the Stiglitz-Weiss model of credit rationing to allow for bank default. Bank capital structure then matters for lending incentives. With default and rationing endogenous, optimal capital requirements can be analyzed. Introducing bank financiers, the paper also shows that uninsured funding raises the sensitivity of rationing to capital requirements. In...

  8. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  9. Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massaro, D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a

  10. Rationality and ritual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wynne, B.

    1982-01-01

    The book concerns the Windscale Public Inquiry, held to investigate the application by British Nuclear Fuels to build a 1200 tonne per year thermal oxide reprocessing plant (THORP) for spent nuclear fuels from Britain and overseas. The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (international dimensions; the Windscale Inquiry; conflict resolution and social drama; public debate and the sociology of knowledge); the decision-making legacy; oxide reprocessing - the background; the public inquiry tradition - a comparative perspective; the emergence of THORP from a private to a public issue (local and national planning politics); the process and impact of the Inquiry (opposition groups); judicial rationality, expert conflict, and political authority); the rationality and politics of analysis (proliferation; radiation risks; relative risks; the Ravenglass issue; discharge targets; general radiation protection arrangements); conclusion. (U.K.)

  11. Rational management of epilepsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Venkataraman

    2014-09-01

    Management of epilepsies in children has improved considerably over the last decade, all over the world due to the advances seen in the understanding of the patho-physiology of epileptogenesis, availability of both structural and functional imaging studies along with better quality EEG/video-EEG recordings and the availability of a plethora of newer anti-epileptic drugs which are tailormade to act on specific pathways. In spite of this, there is still a long way to go before one is able to be absolutely rational about which drug to use for which type of epilepsy. There have been a lot of advances in the area of epilepsy surgery and is certainly gaining ground for specific cases. Better understanding of the genetic basis of epilepsies will hopefully lead to a more rational treatment plan in the future. Also, a lot of work needs to be done to dispel various misunderstandings and myths about epilepsy which still exists in our country.

  12. Multivariate rational data fitting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuyt, Annie; Verdonk, Brigitte

    1992-12-01

    Sections 1 and 2 discuss the advantages of an object-oriented implementation combined with higher floating-point arithmetic, of the algorithms available for multivariate data fitting using rational functions. Section 1 will in particular explain what we mean by "higher arithmetic". Section 2 will concentrate on the concepts of "object orientation". In sections 3 and 4 we shall describe the generality of the data structure that can be dealt with: due to some new results virtually every data set is acceptable right now, with possible coalescence of coordinates or points. In order to solve the multivariate rational interpolation problem the data sets are fed to different algorithms depending on the structure of the interpolation points in then-variate space.

  13. Models for Rational Number Bases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Jean J.; Armbruster, Frank O.

    1975-01-01

    This article extends number bases to negative integers, then to positive rationals and finally to negative rationals. Methods and rules for operations in positive and negative rational bases greater than one or less than negative one are summarized in tables. Sample problems are explained and illustrated. (KM)

  14. Rational Unified Process

    OpenAIRE

    Kopal, Nils

    2016-01-01

    In this German seminar paper, which was written in the year 2011 at the University of Duisburg for a Bachelor Colloquium in Applied computer science, we show a brief overview of the Rational Unified Process (RUP). Thus, interested students or generally interested people in software development gain a first impression of RUP. The paper includes a survey and overview of the underlying process structure, the phases of the process, its workflows, and describes the always by the RUP developers pos...

  15. Maps of Bounded Rationality

    OpenAIRE

    Kahneman, Daniel

    2002-01-01

    The work cited by the Nobel committee was done jointly with the late Amos Tversky (1937-1996) during a long and unusually close collaboration. Together, we explored the psychology of intuitive beliefs and choices and examined their bounded rationality. This essay presents a current perspective on the three major topics of our joint work: heuristics of judgment, risky choice, and framing effects. In all three domains we studied intuitions - thoughts and preferences that come to mind quickly an...

  16. Emotional Theory of Rationality

    OpenAIRE

    Garcés, Mario; Finkel, Lucila

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, it has been definitely established the existence of a close relationship between the emotional phenomena and rational processes, but we still do not have a unified definition, or effective models to describe any of them well. To advance our understanding of the mechanisms governing the behavior of living beings we must integrate multiple theories, experiments and models from both fields. In this paper we propose a new theoretical framework that allows integrating and unders...

  17. On hereditarily rational functions

    OpenAIRE

    Nowak, Krzysztof Jan

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we give a short proof of a theorem by Koll\\'{a}r on hereditarily rational functions. This is an answer to his appeal to find an elementary proof which does not rely so much on resolution of singularities. Our approach does not make use of desingularization techniques. Instead, we apply a stronger version of the \\L{}ojasiewicz inequality. Moreover, this allows us to sharpen Koll\\'{a}r's theorem.

  18. Rationality, Theory Acceptance and Decision Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nicolas Kaufmann

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available Following Kuhn's main thesis according to which theory revision and acceptance is always paradigm relative, I propose to outline some possible consequences of such a view. First, asking the question in what sense Bayesian decision theory could serve as the appropriate (normative theory of rationality examined from the point of view of the epistemology of theory acceptance, I argue that Bayesianism leads to a narrow conception of theory acceptance. Second, regarding the different types of theory revision, i.e. expansion, contraction, replacement and residuals shifts, I extract from Kuhn's view a series of indications showing that theory replacement cannot be rationalized within the framework of Bayesian decision theory, not even within a more sophisticated version of that model. Third, and finally, I will point to the need for a more comprehensive model of rationality than the Bayesian expected utility maximization model, the need for a model which could better deal with the different aspects of theory replacement. I will show that Kuhn's distinction between normal and revolutionary science gives us several hints for a more adequate theory of rationality in science. I will also show that Kuhn is not in a position to fully articulate his main ideas and that he well be confronted with a serious problem concerning collective choice of a paradigm.

  19. Local Choices: Rationality and the Contextuality of Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlaev, Ivo

    2018-01-01

    Rational explanation is ubiquitous in psychology and social sciences, ranging from rational analysis, expectancy-value theories, ideal observer models, mental logic to probabilistic frameworks, rational choice theory, and informal “folk psychological” explanation. However, rational explanation appears to be challenged by apparently systematic irrationality observed in psychological experiments, especially in the field of judgement and decision-making (JDM). Here, it is proposed that the experimental results require not that rational explanation should be rejected, but that rational explanation is local, i.e., within a context. Thus, rational models need to be supplemented with a theory of contextual shifts. We review evidence in JDM that patterns of choices are often consistent within contexts, but unstable between contexts. We also demonstrate that for a limited, though reasonably broad, class of decision-making domains, recent theoretical models can be viewed as providing theories of contextual shifts. It is argued that one particular significant source of global inconsistency arises from a cognitive inability to represent absolute magnitudes, whether for perceptual variables, utilities, payoffs, or probabilities. This overall argument provides a fresh perspective on the scope and limits of human rationality. PMID:29301289

  20. Local Choices: Rationality and the Contextuality of Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlaev, Ivo

    2018-01-02

    Rational explanation is ubiquitous in psychology and social sciences, ranging from rational analysis, expectancy-value theories, ideal observer models, mental logic to probabilistic frameworks, rational choice theory, and informal "folk psychological" explanation. However, rational explanation appears to be challenged by apparently systematic irrationality observed in psychological experiments, especially in the field of judgement and decision-making (JDM). Here, it is proposed that the experimental results require not that rational explanation should be rejected, but that rational explanation is local , i.e., within a context. Thus, rational models need to be supplemented with a theory of contextual shifts. We review evidence in JDM that patterns of choices are often consistent within contexts, but unstable between contexts. We also demonstrate that for a limited, though reasonably broad, class of decision-making domains, recent theoretical models can be viewed as providing theories of contextual shifts. It is argued that one particular significant source of global inconsistency arises from a cognitive inability to represent absolute magnitudes, whether for perceptual variables, utilities, payoffs, or probabilities. This overall argument provides a fresh perspective on the scope and limits of human rationality.

  1. Rationality in children: the first steps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Woodfield

    1991-12-01

    Full Text Available Not all categorization is conceptual. Many of the experimental findings concerning infant and animal categorization invite the hypothesis that the subjects form abstract perceptual representations, mental models or cognitive maps that are not composed of concepts. The paper is a reflection upon the idea that conceptual categorization involves the ability to make categorical judgements under the guidance of norms of rationality. These include a norm of truth-seeking and a norm of good evidence. Acceptance of these norms implies willingness to defer to cognitive authorities, unwillingness to commit oneself to contradictions, and knowledge of how to reorganize one's representational system upon discovering that one has made a mistake. It is proposed that the cognitive architecture required for basic rationality is similar to that which underlies pretend-play. The representational system must be able to make room for separate 'mental spaces' in which alternatives to the actual world are entertained. The same feature underlies the ability to understand modalities, time, the appearance-reality distinction, other minds, and ethics. Each area of understanding admits of degrees, and mastery (up to normal adult level takes years. But rational concept-management, at least in its most rudimentary form, does not require a capacity to form second-order representations. It requires knowledge of how to operate upon, and compare, the contents of different mental spaces.

  2. F-theory and all things rational: surveying U(1) symmetries with rational sections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrie, Craig; Schäfer-Nameki, Sakura; Wong, Jin-Mann

    2015-01-01

    We study elliptic fibrations for F-theory compactifications realizing 4d and 6d supersymmetric gauge theories with abelian gauge factors. In the fibration these U(1) symmetries are realized in terms of additional rational section. We obtain a universal characterization of all the possible U(1) charges of matter fields by determining the corresponding codimension two fibers with rational sections. In view of modelling supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories, one of the main examples that we analyze are U(1) symmetries for SU(5) gauge theories with 5̄ and 10 matter. We use a combination of constraints on the normal bundle of rational curves in Calabi-Yau three- and four-folds, as well as the splitting of rational curves in the fibers in codimension two, to determine the possible configurations of smooth rational sections. This analysis straightforwardly generalizes to multiple U(1)s. We study the flops of such fibers, as well as some of the Yukawa couplings in codimension three. Furthermore, we carry out a universal study of the U(1)-charged GUT singlets, including their KK-charges, and determine all realizations of singlet fibers. By giving vacuum expectation values to these singlets, we propose a systematic way to analyze the Higgsing of U(1)s to discrete gauge symmetries in F-theory.

  3. Are security analysts rational? a literature review

    OpenAIRE

    Peixinho, Rúben; Coelho, Luís; Taffler, Richard J.

    2005-01-01

    Rational choice theory and bounded rationality constitute the basis for the discussion in several areas regarding human rationality. In finance, this discussion has been made between traditional finance and behavioural finance approach, which have different perspectives concerning market agents’ rationality. This paper reviews several studies addressing rationality among security analysts. The analysis shows that analysts’systematic optimism seems to be inconsistent with rationality....

  4. National energy decisionmaking: rationalism and rationalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, M.J.

    1980-01-01

    This paper is an attempt at institutional engineering. Unlike many economic analyses of social choice, it does not explore the implications of various hypothetical voting schemes under highly simplified circumstances. Instead, it considers how current social and political arrangements for making energy policy have actually functioned, and how we might make them function more effectively. The first two sections of this paper present necessary theoretical preliminaries: first, the kinds of relations we can expect between the structure of institutions on the one hand, and social and political decisions on the other, and second, the criteria we can and should use for choosing among institutional alternatives. The third section reviews what is known about the consequences of current decisionmaking arrangements. The final section considers the implications of this review and argues for a series of changes in how we organize our affairs

  5. Is the Aluminum Hypothesis Dead?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The Aluminum Hypothesis, the idea that aluminum exposure is involved in the etiology of Alzheimer disease, dates back to a 1965 demonstration that aluminum causes neurofibrillary tangles in the brains of rabbits. Initially the focus of intensive research, the Aluminum Hypothesis has gradually been abandoned by most researchers. Yet, despite this current indifference, the Aluminum Hypothesis continues to attract the attention of a small group of scientists and aluminum continues to be viewed with concern by some of the public. This review article discusses reasons that mainstream science has largely abandoned the Aluminum Hypothesis and explores a possible reason for some in the general public continuing to view aluminum with mistrust. PMID:24806729

  6. The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India

    OpenAIRE

    Naresh Kumar Sharma; Motilal Bicchal

    2018-01-01

    Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, sugge...

  7. Rational Approximations to Rational Models: Alternative Algorithms for Category Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanborn, Adam N.; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Navarro, Daniel J.

    2010-01-01

    Rational models of cognition typically consider the abstract computational problems posed by the environment, assuming that people are capable of optimally solving those problems. This differs from more traditional formal models of cognition, which focus on the psychological processes responsible for behavior. A basic challenge for rational models…

  8. Realization theory for rational systems: Minimal rational realizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Nemcová (Jana); J.H. van Schuppen (Jan)

    2010-01-01

    htmlabstractThe study of realizations of response maps is a topic of control and system theory. Realization theory is used in system identification and control synthesis. A minimal rational realization of a given response map p is a rational realization of p such that the dimension of its state

  9. Hypothesis Designs for Three-Hypothesis Test Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Yan Li; Xiaolong Pu

    2010-01-01

    As a helpful guide for applications, the alternative hypotheses of the three-hypothesis test problems are designed under the required error probabilities and average sample number in this paper. The asymptotic formulas and the proposed numerical quadrature formulas are adopted, respectively, to obtain the hypothesis designs and the corresponding sequential test schemes under the Koopman-Darmois distributions. The example of the normal mean test shows that our methods are qu...

  10. Tests of the lunar hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, S. R.

    1984-01-01

    The concept that the Moon was fissioned from the Earth after core separation is the most readily testable hypothesis of lunar origin, since direct comparisons of lunar and terrestrial compositions can be made. Differences found in such comparisons introduce so many ad hoc adjustments to the fission hypothesis that it becomes untestable. Further constraints may be obtained from attempting to date the volatile-refractory element fractionation. The combination of chemical and isotopic problems suggests that the fission hypothesis is no longer viable, and separate terrestrial and lunar accretion from a population of fractionated precursor planetesimals provides a more reasonable explanation.

  11. Interstellar colonization and the zoo hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.

    1978-01-01

    Michael Hart and others have pointed out that current estimates of the number of technological civilizations arisen in the Galaxy since its formation is in fundamental conflict with the expectation that such a civilization could colonize and utilize the entire Galaxy in 10 to 20 million years. This dilemma can be called Hart's paradox. Resolution of the paradox requires that one or more of the following are true: we are the Galaxy's first technical civilization; interstellar travel is immensely impractical or simply impossible; technological civilizations are very short-lived; or we inhabit a wildnerness preserve. The latter is the zoo hypothesis

  12. Rational customs clearance technology choice

    OpenAIRE

    Shramenko, N.; Andriets, V.

    2008-01-01

    Issues concerning cargo delivery efficiencyincrease by choice of rational customs clearance technology have been considered. Three possible variants of customs clearance andmethods which allow to define the most rational version of cargo delivery in international road communication based on main efficiency criteria for definite distance have been presented.

  13. Differential Rationality and Personal Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fincher, Cameron

    This publication discusses differential rationality; it asserts that the development of institutions, professions, and individuals involves the differentiation of forms and styles of thinking and knowing that are, in various ways, idiosyncratic. Based on this understanding, differential rationality can be seen as a developmental construct that…

  14. Rationality problem for algebraic tori

    CERN Document Server

    Hoshi, Akinari

    2017-01-01

    The authors give the complete stably rational classification of algebraic tori of dimensions 4 and 5 over a field k. In particular, the stably rational classification of norm one tori whose Chevalley modules are of rank 4 and 5 is given. The authors show that there exist exactly 487 (resp. 7, resp. 216) stably rational (resp. not stably but retract rational, resp. not retract rational) algebraic tori of dimension 4, and there exist exactly 3051 (resp. 25, resp. 3003) stably rational (resp. not stably but retract rational, resp. not retract rational) algebraic tori of dimension 5. The authors make a procedure to compute a flabby resolution of a G-lattice effectively by using the computer algebra system GAP. Some algorithms may determine whether the flabby class of a G-lattice is invertible (resp. zero) or not. Using the algorithms, the suthors determine all the flabby and coflabby G-lattices of rank up to 6 and verify that they are stably permutation. The authors also show that the Krull-Schmidt theorem for G-...

  15. Product differentiation under bounded rationality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, B.; Poutré, La J.A.; Kok, de A.G.; Pyka, A.; Handa, H.; Ishibuchi, H.; Ong, Y.-S.; Tan, K.-C.

    2015-01-01

    We study product differentiation equilibria and dynamics on the Salop circle under bounded rationality. Due to bounded rationality, firms tend to agglomerate in pairs. Upon adding a second tier of component suppliers, downstream assemblers may escape pairwise horizontal agglomeration. Moreover, we

  16. The concept of rational suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, D J

    1986-05-01

    Suicide has been condemned in our culture in one way or another since Augustine offered theological arguments against it in the sixth century. More recently, theological condemnation has given way to the view that suicidal behavior must always be symptomatic of emotional disturbance and mental illness. However, suicide has not always been viewed so negatively. In other times and cultures, it has been held that circumstances might befall a person in which suicide would be a perfectly rational course of action, in the same sense that any other course of action could be rational: that it could be sensible, i.e., defensible by good reasons, or that it could be in keeping with the agent's fundamental interests. Indiscriminate use of modern life-sustaining technologies has renewed interest in the possibility of rational suicide. Today proponents of rational suicide tend to equate the rationality of suicide with the competence of the decision to commit suicide.

  17. Limited rationality and strategic interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fehr, Ernst; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    2008-01-01

    Much evidence suggests that people are heterogeneous with regard to their abilities to make rational, forward-looking decisions. This raises the question as to when the rational types are decisive for aggregate outcomes and when the boundedly rational types shape aggregate results. We examine...... this question in the context of a long-standing and important economic problem: the adjustment of nominal prices after an anticipated monetary shock. Our experiments suggest that two types of bounded rationality-money illusion and anchoring-are important behavioral forces behind nominal inertia. However......, depending on the strategic environment, bounded rationality has vastly different effects on aggregate price adjustment. If agents' actions are strategic substitutes, adjustment to the new equilibrium is extremely quick, whereas under strategic complementarity, adjustment is both very slow and associated...

  18. Evaluating the Stage Learning Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Hoben

    1980-01-01

    A procedure for evaluating the Genevan stage learning hypothesis is illustrated by analyzing Inhelder, Sinclair, and Bovet's guided learning experiments (in "Learning and the Development of Cognition." Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974). (Author/MP)

  19. The Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis:

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-10-02

    Oct 2, 2011 ... reject the unit root hypothesis in real exchange rates may simply be due to the shortness ..... Violations of Purchasing Power Parity and Their Implications for Efficient ... Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market:.

  20. Stability and Hopf bifurcation for a business cycle model with expectation and delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangdong; Cai, Wenli; Lu, Jiajun; Wang, Yangyang

    2015-08-01

    According to rational expectation hypothesis, the government will take into account the future capital stock in the process of investment decision. By introducing anticipated capital stock into an economic model with investment delay, we construct a mixed functional differential system including delay and advanced variables. The system is converted to the one containing only delay by variable substitution. The equilibrium point of the system is obtained and its dynamical characteristics such as stability, Hopf bifurcation and its stability and direction are investigated by using the related theories of nonlinear dynamics. We carry out some numerical simulations to confirm these theoretical conclusions. The results indicate that both capital stock's anticipation and investment lag are the certain factors leading to the occurrence of cyclical fluctuations in the macroeconomic system. Moreover, the level of economic fluctuation can be dampened to some extent if investment decisions are made by the reasonable short-term forecast on capital stock.

  1. [Rational use of medicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helali, A

    2006-12-01

    Every body speaks about inappropriate use of medicines and each one gives his own explanation. Politicians are telling about the waste of medicines and the money of their national budget. Citizens are saying that the physicians prescribe more than necessary for treatment and blame them as one part of the financial burden weighting on their family budget. Physicians give different explanation and think that the rational use of medicines is a sort of pressure to limit their freedom to prescribe what it seems to them necessary and better for their patients. Pharmacists dispensing medicines consider the prescription as a physician's prerogative and prefer to stay neutral in this debate. Within this large range of opinions, it is difficult to find general consensus, so that every body take care to not declare his proper opinion about the subject, the causes and the adequate solutions. Finally no changes take place in this issue. However, neither the government as responsible for the citizen's health, nor the health professionals and international organisations, are facing their complete obligations toward the populations by ensuring to them that the medicines are administered according to the health need of the patients, efficacious and safe , in doses that meet their own individual requirements, for an adequate period of time, and at the lower cost, and be secured against misuse by the pharmacist before the delivery to the patients. This is a worthwhile programme, but unfortunately without designate takers or promoters until now.

  2. Rational points on varieties

    CERN Document Server

    Poonen, Bjorn

    2017-01-01

    This book is motivated by the problem of determining the set of rational points on a variety, but its true goal is to equip readers with a broad range of tools essential for current research in algebraic geometry and number theory. The book is unconventional in that it provides concise accounts of many topics instead of a comprehensive account of just one-this is intentionally designed to bring readers up to speed rapidly. Among the topics included are Brauer groups, faithfully flat descent, algebraic groups, torsors, étale and fppf cohomology, the Weil conjectures, and the Brauer-Manin and descent obstructions. A final chapter applies all these to study the arithmetic of surfaces. The down-to-earth explanations and the over 100 exercises make the book suitable for use as a graduate-level textbook, but even experts will appreciate having a single source covering many aspects of geometry over an unrestricted ground field and containing some material that cannot be found elsewhere. The origins of arithmetic (o...

  3. Plural rationalities and risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, P.; Thompson, M.

    1989-01-01

    Like many social scientists, we attribute public unwillingness to accept certain low probability risks not to 'irrationality' but rather to the everyday application of qualitative as well as quantitative criteria. Just as most people buying a video or hi-fi do not base their decision solely on price or performance data but also consider such intangibles as design and the reputation of the manufacturer, individuals faced with a given risk take into account not merely the probability of harm but also the credibility and trustworthiness of whoever generates the information and manages the safety and other precautions which ensure its accuracy. To analyse these qualitative dimensions we utilise the grid/-group methodology developed by the cultural anthropologist Mary Douglas, and her co-workers. Douglas identifies four basic forms of society and four associated 'thought worlds' which serve to legitimise and reproduce them. Differences in concepts of human cognition, time and many other variables between the different thought worlds are so profound that they can be regarded as different kinds of rationality. The acceptability of risks is partially determined by the extent to which they support or threaten the existence of the different societies. (author)

  4. The (not so) immortal strand hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasetti, Cristian; Bozic, Ivana

    2015-03-01

    Non-random segregation of DNA strands during stem cell replication has been proposed as a mechanism to minimize accumulated genetic errors in stem cells of rapidly dividing tissues. According to this hypothesis, an "immortal" DNA strand is passed to the stem cell daughter and not the more differentiated cell, keeping the stem cell lineage replication error-free. After it was introduced, experimental evidence both in favor and against the hypothesis has been presented. Using a novel methodology that utilizes cancer sequencing data we are able to estimate the rate of accumulation of mutations in healthy stem cells of the colon, blood and head and neck tissues. We find that in these tissues mutations in stem cells accumulate at rates strikingly similar to those expected without the protection from the immortal strand mechanism. Utilizing an approach that is fundamentally different from previous efforts to confirm or refute the immortal strand hypothesis, we provide evidence against non-random segregation of DNA during stem cell replication. Our results strongly suggest that parental DNA is passed randomly to stem cell daughters and provides new insight into the mechanism of DNA replication in stem cells. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Discrete Choice and Rational Inattention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Melo, Emerson; de Palma, André

    2017-01-01

    This paper establishes a general equivalence between discrete choice and rational inattention models. Matejka and McKay (2015, AER) showed that when information costs are modelled using the Shannon entropy, the result- ing choice probabilities in the rational inattention model take the multinomial...... logit form. We show that when information costs are modelled using a class of generalized entropies, then the choice probabilities in any rational inattention model are observationally equivalent to some additive random utility discrete choice model and vice versa. This equivalence arises from convex...

  6. Aligning Resources with Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Samantha

    2006-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses that the ability to clearly link resources, activities and goals in a rational and logical manner is a model that many educators and school leaders would welcome. She also states that in the 1990s, when the state moved in the direction of standards and accountability, part of the thinking was that public…

  7. The atomic hypothesis: physical consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas, Martin

    2008-01-01

    The hypothesis that matter is made of some ultimate and indivisible objects, together with the restricted relativity principle, establishes a constraint on the kind of variables we are allowed to use for the variational description of elementary particles. We consider that the atomic hypothesis not only states the indivisibility of elementary particles, but also that these ultimate objects, if not annihilated, cannot be modified by any interaction so that all allowed states of an elementary particle are only kinematical modifications of any one of them. Therefore, an elementary particle cannot have excited states. In this way, the kinematical group of spacetime symmetries not only defines the symmetries of the system, but also the variables in terms of which the mathematical description of the elementary particles can be expressed in either the classical or the quantum mechanical description. When considering the interaction of two Dirac particles, the atomic hypothesis restricts the interaction Lagrangian to a kind of minimal coupling interaction

  8. Rational reconstructions of modern physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mittelstaedt, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Newton’s classical physics and its underlying ontology are loaded with several metaphysical hypotheses that cannot be justified by rational reasoning nor by experimental evidence. Furthermore, it is well known that some of these hypotheses are not contained in the great theories of Modern Physics, such as the theory of Special Relativity and Quantum Mechanics. This book shows that, on the basis of Newton’s classical physics and by rational reconstruction, the theory of Special Relativity as well as Quantum Mechanics can be obtained by partly eliminating or attenuating the metaphysical hypotheses. Moreover, it is shown that these reconstructions do not require additional hypotheses or new experimental results. In the second edition the rational reconstructions are completed with respect to General Relativity and Cosmology. In addition, the statistics of quantum objects is elaborated in more detail with respect to the rational reconstruction of quantum mechanics. The new material completes the approach of t...

  9. Rational-Emotive Staff Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Susan G.; Forman, Bruce D.

    1980-01-01

    The application of Rational-Emotive Therapy principles and techniques in in-service education for school personnel is discussed. Teacher and counselor participation in a staff development program is described. (Author)

  10. Multiple sclerosis: a geographical hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlyle, I P

    1997-12-01

    Multiple sclerosis remains a rare neurological disease of unknown aetiology, with a unique distribution, both geographically and historically. Rare in equatorial regions, it becomes increasingly common in higher latitudes; historically, it was first clinically recognized in the early nineteenth century. A hypothesis, based on geographical reasoning, is here proposed: that the disease is the result of a specific vitamin deficiency. Different individuals suffer the deficiency in separate and often unique ways. Evidence to support the hypothesis exists in cultural considerations, in the global distribution of the disease, and in its historical prevalence.

  11. Discussion of the Porter hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-11-01

    In the reaction to the long-range vision of RMNO, published in 1996, The Dutch government posed the question whether a far-going and progressive modernization policy will lead to competitive advantages of high-quality products on partly new markets. Such a question is connected to the so-called Porter hypothesis: 'By stimulating innovation, strict environmental regulations can actually enhance competitiveness', from which statement it can be concluded that environment and economy can work together quite well. A literature study has been carried out in order to determine under which conditions that hypothesis is endorsed in the scientific literature and policy documents. Recommendations are given for further studies. refs

  12. The thrifty phenotype hypothesis revisited

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaag, A A; Grunnet, L G; Arora, G P

    2012-01-01

    Twenty years ago, Hales and Barker along with their co-workers published some of their pioneering papers proposing the 'thrifty phenotype hypothesis' in Diabetologia (4;35:595-601 and 3;36:62-67). Their postulate that fetal programming could represent an important player in the origin of type 2...... of the underlying molecular mechanisms. Type 2 diabetes is a multiple-organ disease, and developmental programming, with its idea of organ plasticity, is a plausible hypothesis for a common basis for the widespread organ dysfunctions in type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome. Only two among the 45 known type 2...

  13. Management between Rationality and Irrationality

    OpenAIRE

    Cene Bavec

    2012-01-01

    In the paper, we discuss theoretical and practical aspects of management and its rational and irrational behavior in the light of traditional management theories and contemporary social theories and theories of complexity. We exposed differences between middle and top management, where rationality is ascribed mainly to middle management, while top management often acts on seemingly irrational way. For the part of this irrationality, we cannot blame management because it originates from the na...

  14. Choice, internal consistency, and rationality

    OpenAIRE

    Aditi Bhattacharyya; Prasanta K. Pattanaik; Yongsheng Xu

    2010-01-01

    The classical theory of rational choice is built on several important internal consistency conditions. In recent years, the reasonableness of those internal consistency conditions has been questioned and criticized, and several responses to accommodate such criticisms have been proposed in the literature. This paper develops a general framework to accommodate the issues raised by the criticisms of classical rational choice theory, and examines the broad impact of these criticisms from both no...

  15. Interpolation of rational matrix functions

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, Joseph A; Rodman, Leiba

    1990-01-01

    This book aims to present the theory of interpolation for rational matrix functions as a recently matured independent mathematical subject with its own problems, methods and applications. The authors decided to start working on this book during the regional CBMS conference in Lincoln, Nebraska organized by F. Gilfeather and D. Larson. The principal lecturer, J. William Helton, presented ten lectures on operator and systems theory and the interplay between them. The conference was very stimulating and helped us to decide that the time was ripe for a book on interpolation for matrix valued functions (both rational and non-rational). When the work started and the first partial draft of the book was ready it became clear that the topic is vast and that the rational case by itself with its applications is already enough material for an interesting book. In the process of writing the book, methods for the rational case were developed and refined. As a result we are now able to present the rational case as an indepe...

  16. Momentum effect in stocks’ returns between the rational and the behavioural financial theories: Proposition of the progressive rationality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faten Zoghlami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available     The puzzling momentum strategies’ payoffs defied the rational financial theory asserting the stocks returns’ unpredictability. Moreover, the momentum effect persist the main stocks returns’ anomaly escaping any risk-based explanation. The resilience of this phenomenon had favoured the development of behavioural financial field, which breaks with the investor’ full rationality hypothesis. This paper attempts to reconcile between the rational and behavioural financial theories, through the introduction of the progressive rationality concept. Especially, we argue that recognizing the temporary inappropriate investors’ reactions; can resolve the puzzling momentum anomaly. To fulfil our objective, we identify the appropriate autoregressive level that captures the significant autocorrelations involved by the investors’ over and under reactions. Then, we explore the profitability of the 6/6 momentum strategy implemented on the adjusted stocks’ returns. The adjusted momentum strategy is still profitable but no longer puzzling, since the related excess return is henceforth fully captured by a β and a size effect.Key words: Tunisian momentum effect, the rational finance theory, the behavioural finance theory, the three-factorial model and the autoregressive process.

  17. A Rational Decision Maker with Ordinal Utility under Uncertainty: Optimism and Pessimism

    OpenAIRE

    Han, Ji

    2009-01-01

    In game theory and artificial intelligence, decision making models often involve maximizing expected utility, which does not respect ordinal invariance. In this paper, the author discusses the possibility of preserving ordinal invariance and still making a rational decision under uncertainty.

  18. [Rationalization, rationing, prioritization: terminology and ethical approaches to the allocation of limited resources in hematology/oncology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Eva

    2011-01-01

    The field of oncology with its numerous high-priced innovations contributes considerably to the fact that medical progress is expensive. Additionally, due to the demographic changes and the increasing life expectancy, a growing number of cancer patients want to profit from this progress. Since resources are limited also in the health system, the fair distribution of the available resources urgently needs to be addressed. Dealing with scarcity is a typical problem in the domain of justice theory; therefore, this article first discusses different strategies to manage limited resources: rationalization, rationing, and prioritization. It then presents substantive as well as procedural criteria that assist in the just distribution of effective health benefits. There are various strategies to reduce the utilization of limited resources: Rationalization means that efficiency reserves are being exhausted; by means of rationing, effective health benefits are withheld due to cost considerations. Rationing can occur implicitly and thus covertly, e.g. through budgeting or the implementation of waiting periods, or explicitly, through transparent rules or policies about healthcare coverage. Ranking medical treatments according to their importance (prioritization) is often a prerequisite for rationing decisions. In terms of requirements of justice, both procedural and substantive criteria (e.g. equality, urgency, benefit) are relevant for the acceptance and quality of a decision to limit access to effective health benefits. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  19. Love and rationality: on some possible rational effects of love

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Ortiz-Millán

    Full Text Available In this paper I defend the idea that rather than disrupting rationality, as the common-sense conception has done it, love may actually help us to develop rational ways of thinking and acting. I make the case for romantic or erotic love, since this is the kind of love that is more frequently associated with irrationality in acting and thinking. I argue that this kind of love may make us develop epistemic and practical forms of rationality. Based on an analysis of its characteristic action tendencies, I argue that love may help us to develop an instrumental form of rationality in determining the best means to achieve the object of love. It may also narrow down the number of practical considerations that may help us to achieve our goals. Finally, love may generate rational ways of belief-formation by framing the parameters taken into account in perception and attention, and by bringing into light only a small portion of the epistemic information available. Love may make us perceive reality more acutely.

  20. What You Know About Customer-Perceived Quality: The Role of Customer Expectation Distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Roland T. Rust; J. Jeffrey Inman; Jianmin Jia; Anthony Zahorik

    1999-01-01

    We show that some of the most common beliefs about customer-perceived quality are wrong. For example, 1) it is not necessary to exceed customer expectations to increase preference, 2) receiving an expected level of bad service does not reduce preference, 3) rational customers may rationally choose an option with lower expected quality, even if all non-quality attributes are equal, and 4) paying more attention to loyal, experienced customers can sometimes be counter-productive. These surprisin...

  1. Rational Decision Making as Performative Praxis: Explaining Rationality's Éternel Retour

    OpenAIRE

    Cabantous, L.; Gond, J-P.

    2011-01-01

    Organizational theorists built their knowledge of decision making through a progressive critique of rational choice theory. Their positioning towards rationality, however, is at odds with the observation of rationality persistence in organizational life. This paper addresses this paradox. It proposes a new perspective on rationality that allows the theorizing of the production of rational decisions by organizations. To account for rationality's éternel retour, we approach rational decision ma...

  2. Cooperation, psychological game theory, and limitations of rationality in social interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Andrew M

    2003-04-01

    Rational choice theory enjoys unprecedented popularity and influence in the behavioral and social sciences, but it generates intractable problems when applied to socially interactive decisions. In individual decisions, instrumental rationality is defined in terms of expected utility maximization. This becomes problematic in interactive decisions, when individuals have only partial control over the outcomes, because expected utility maximization is undefined in the absence of assumptions about how the other participants will behave. Game theory therefore incorporates not only rationality but also common knowledge assumptions, enabling players to anticipate their co-players' strategies. Under these assumptions, disparate anomalies emerge. Instrumental rationality, conventionally interpreted, fails to explain intuitively obvious features of human interaction, yields predictions starkly at variance with experimental findings, and breaks down completely in certain cases. In particular, focal point selection in pure coordination games is inexplicable, though it is easily achieved in practice; the intuitively compelling payoff-dominance principle lacks rational justification; rationality in social dilemmas is self-defeating; a key solution concept for cooperative coalition games is frequently inapplicable; and rational choice in certain sequential games generates contradictions. In experiments, human players behave more cooperatively and receive higher payoffs than strict rationality would permit. Orthodox conceptions of rationality are evidently internally deficient and inadequate for explaining human interaction. Psychological game theory, based on nonstandard assumptions, is required to solve these problems, and some suggestions along these lines have already been put forward.

  3. Rationing medical education | Walsh | African Health Sciences

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Even though some stakeholders in medical education might be taken aback at the prospect of rationing, the truth is that rationing has always occurred in one form or another in medical education and in healthcare more broadly. Different types of rationing exist in healthcare professional education. For example rationing may ...

  4. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  5. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  6. Rationality, practice variation and person?centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hamm, Robert M.; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability threshol...

  7. Questioning the social intelligence hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holekamp, Kay E

    2007-02-01

    The social intelligence hypothesis posits that complex cognition and enlarged "executive brains" evolved in response to challenges that are associated with social complexity. This hypothesis has been well supported, but some recent data are inconsistent with its predictions. It is becoming increasingly clear that multiple selective agents, and non-selective constraints, must have acted to shape cognitive abilities in humans and other animals. The task now is to develop a larger theoretical framework that takes into account both inter-specific differences and similarities in cognition. This new framework should facilitate consideration of how selection pressures that are associated with sociality interact with those that are imposed by non-social forms of environmental complexity, and how both types of functional demands interact with phylogenetic and developmental constraints.

  8. Strategy selection as rational metareasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2017-11-01

    Many contemporary accounts of human reasoning assume that the mind is equipped with multiple heuristics that could be deployed to perform a given task. This raises the question of how the mind determines when to use which heuristic. To answer this question, we developed a rational model of strategy selection, based on the theory of rational metareasoning developed in the artificial intelligence literature. According to our model people learn to efficiently choose the strategy with the best cost-benefit tradeoff by learning a predictive model of each strategy's performance. We found that our model can provide a unifying explanation for classic findings from domains ranging from decision-making to arithmetic by capturing the variability of people's strategy choices, their dependence on task and context, and their development over time. Systematic model comparisons supported our theory, and 4 new experiments confirmed its distinctive predictions. Our findings suggest that people gradually learn to make increasingly more rational use of fallible heuristics. This perspective reconciles the 2 poles of the debate about human rationality by integrating heuristics and biases with learning and rationality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Whiplash and the compensation hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B

    2011-12-01

    Review article. To explain why the evidence that compensation-related factors lead to worse health outcomes is not compelling, either in general, or in the specific case of whiplash. There is a common view that compensation-related factors lead to worse health outcomes ("the compensation hypothesis"), despite the presence of important, and unresolved sources of bias. The empirical evidence on this question has ramifications for the design of compensation schemes. Using studies on whiplash, this article outlines the methodological problems that impede attempts to confirm or refute the compensation hypothesis. Compensation studies are prone to measurement bias, reverse causation bias, and selection bias. Errors in measurement are largely due to the latent nature of whiplash injuries and health itself, a lack of clarity over the unit of measurement (specific factors, or "compensation"), and a lack of appreciation for the heterogeneous qualities of compensation-related factors and schemes. There has been a failure to acknowledge and empirically address reverse causation bias, or the likelihood that poor health influences the decision to pursue compensation: it is unclear if compensation is a cause or a consequence of poor health, or both. Finally, unresolved selection bias (and hence, confounding) is evident in longitudinal studies and natural experiments. In both cases, between-group differences have not been addressed convincingly. The nature of the relationship between compensation-related factors and health is unclear. Current approaches to testing the compensation hypothesis are prone to several important sources of bias, which compromise the validity of their results. Methods that explicitly test the hypothesis and establish whether or not a causal relationship exists between compensation factors and prolonged whiplash symptoms are needed in future studies.

  10. DISTRIBUTED RC NETWORKS WITH RATIONAL TRANSFER FUNCTIONS,

    Science.gov (United States)

    A distributed RC circuit analogous to a continuously tapped transmission line can be made to have a rational short-circuit transfer admittance and...one rational shortcircuit driving-point admittance. A subcircuit of the same structure has a rational open circuit transfer impedance and one rational ...open circuit driving-point impedance. Hence, rational transfer functions may be obtained while considering either generator impedance or load

  11. Gaussian Hypothesis Testing and Quantum Illumination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilde, Mark M; Tomamichel, Marco; Lloyd, Seth; Berta, Mario

    2017-09-22

    Quantum hypothesis testing is one of the most basic tasks in quantum information theory and has fundamental links with quantum communication and estimation theory. In this paper, we establish a formula that characterizes the decay rate of the minimal type-II error probability in a quantum hypothesis test of two Gaussian states given a fixed constraint on the type-I error probability. This formula is a direct function of the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the quantum Gaussian states in question. We give an application to quantum illumination, which is the task of determining whether there is a low-reflectivity object embedded in a target region with a bright thermal-noise bath. For the asymmetric-error setting, we find that a quantum illumination transmitter can achieve an error probability exponent stronger than a coherent-state transmitter of the same mean photon number, and furthermore, that it requires far fewer trials to do so. This occurs when the background thermal noise is either low or bright, which means that a quantum advantage is even easier to witness than in the symmetric-error setting because it occurs for a larger range of parameters. Going forward from here, we expect our formula to have applications in settings well beyond those considered in this paper, especially to quantum communication tasks involving quantum Gaussian channels.

  12. [Rational choice, prediction, and medical decision. Contribution of severity scores].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizouarn, P; Fiat, E; Folscheid, D

    2001-11-01

    The aim of this study was to determine what type of representation the medical doctor adopted concerning the uncertainty about the future in critically ill patients in the context of preoperative evaluation and intensive care medicine and to explore through the representation of the patient health status the different possibilities of choice he was able to make. The role played by the severity classification systems in the process of medical decision-making under probabilistic uncertainty was assessed according to the theories of rational behaviour. In this context, a medical rationality needed to be discovered, going beyond the instrumental status of the objective and/or subjective constructions of rational choice theories and reaching a dimension where means and expected ends could be included.

  13. Rational points on elliptic curves

    CERN Document Server

    Silverman, Joseph H

    2015-01-01

    The theory of elliptic curves involves a pleasing blend of algebra, geometry, analysis, and number theory. This book stresses this interplay as it develops the basic theory, thereby providing an opportunity for advanced undergraduates to appreciate the unity of modern mathematics. At the same time, every effort has been made to use only methods and results commonly included in the undergraduate curriculum. This accessibility, the informal writing style, and a wealth of exercises make Rational Points on Elliptic Curves an ideal introduction for students at all levels who are interested in learning about Diophantine equations and arithmetic geometry. Most concretely, an elliptic curve is the set of zeroes of a cubic polynomial in two variables. If the polynomial has rational coefficients, then one can ask for a description of those zeroes whose coordinates are either integers or rational numbers. It is this number theoretic question that is the main subject of this book. Topics covered include the geometry and ...

  14. Rationality in the Cryptographic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubacek, Pavel

    This thesis presents results in the field of rational cryptography. In the first part we study the use of cryptographic protocols to avoid mediation and binding commitment when implementing game theoretic equilibrium concepts. First, we concentrate on the limits of cryptographic cheap talk...... to implement correlated equilibria of two-player strategic games in a sequentially rational way. We show that there exist two-player games for which no cryptographic protocol can implement the mediator in a sequentially rational way; that is, without introducing empty threats. In the context of computational...... with appealing economic applications. Our implementation puts forward a notion of cryptographically blinded games that exploits the power of encryption to selectively restrict the information available to players about sampled action profiles, such that these desirable equilibria can be stably achieved...

  15. Rational Choice Theory and Addiction Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Krstić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore the construct of student satisfaction and analyze its relationship with student loyalty in the context of state and private universities. The rational choice theory assumes that, when deciding whether to consume some goods or not, consumers use analysis in order to estimate the values of individual preference indicators. From this point of view, there are risk and time preferences. The former show aversion to a risk and are expressed through the risk aversion coefficient, while the latter measure the degree of preference for present satisfaction in relation to the same satisfaction in the future. The degree of preference for present satisfaction regarding the same satisfaction in the future is expressed by the time preference rate. Smokers with a low time preference rate and high risk aversion coefficient level can be expected to be successful in cessation. The aim of this paper is to study smokers from the perspective of rational choice theory, in order to detect factors influencing their behavior. The study (investigation found that the significant factors for smokers’ behavior are: gender, age, education, risk aversion coefficient, and the time preference rate. Analysis of smokers’ behavior, with appropriate limits and qualifications, is a well-developed and highly effective tool for exploring and interpreting reality.

  16. Empirical evidence for resource-rational anchoring and adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; M Huys, Quentin J; Goodman, Noah D

    2018-04-01

    People's estimates of numerical quantities are systematically biased towards their initial guess. This anchoring bias is usually interpreted as sign of human irrationality, but it has recently been suggested that the anchoring bias instead results from people's rational use of their finite time and limited cognitive resources. If this were true, then adjustment should decrease with the relative cost of time. To test this hypothesis, we designed a new numerical estimation paradigm that controls people's knowledge and varies the cost of time and error independently while allowing people to invest as much or as little time and effort into refining their estimate as they wish. Two experiments confirmed the prediction that adjustment decreases with time cost but increases with error cost regardless of whether the anchor was self-generated or provided. These results support the hypothesis that people rationally adapt their number of adjustments to achieve a near-optimal speed-accuracy tradeoff. This suggests that the anchoring bias might be a signature of the rational use of finite time and limited cognitive resources rather than a sign of human irrationality.

  17. Rationalizing the Promotion of Non-Rational Behaviors in Organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Peter A. C.; Sharma, Meenakshi

    2002-01-01

    Organizations must balance rational/technical efficiency and emotions. Action learning has been proven to be effective for developing emotional openness in the workplace. Facilitators of action learning should draw upon the disciplines of counseling, Gestalt, psychodynamics, and Eastern philosophies. (Contains 23 references.) (SK)

  18. Re-visions of rationality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Ben R

    2005-01-01

    The appeal of simple algorithms that take account of both the constraints of human cognitive capacity and the structure of environments has been an enduring theme in cognitive science. A novel version of such a boundedly rational perspective views the mind as containing an 'adaptive toolbox' of specialized cognitive heuristics suited to different problems. Although intuitively appealing, when this version was proposed, empirical evidence for the use of such heuristics was scant. I argue that in the light of empirical studies carried out since then, it is time this 'vision of rationality' was revised. An alternative view based on integrative models rather than collections of heuristics is proposed.

  19. Mental health as rational autonomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, R B

    1981-08-01

    Rather than eliminate the terms "mental health and illness" because of the grave moral consequences of psychiatric labeling, conservative definitions are proposed and defended. Mental health is rational autonomy, and mental illness is the sustained loss of such. Key terms are explained, advantages are explored, and alternative concepts are criticized. The value and descriptive components of all such definitions are consciously acknowledged. Where rational autonomy is intact, mental hospitals and psychotherapists should not think of themselves as treating an illness. Instead, they are functioning as applied axiologists, moral educators, spiritual mentors, etc. They deal with what Szasz has called "personal, social, and ethical problems in living." But mental illness is real.

  20. Public policy, rationality and reason

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Canto Sáenz

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work suggests the incorporation of practical reason in the design, implementation and evaluation of public policies, alongside instrumental rationality. It takes two proposals that today point in this direction: Rawls distinction between reasonable (practical reason and rational (instrumental reason and what this author calls the CI Procedure (categorical imperative procedure and Habermas model of deliberative democracy. The main conclusion is that the analysis of public policies can not be limited to rather narrow limits of science, but requires the contribution of political and moral philosophy.

  1. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  2. Why humans deviate from rational choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewig, Johannes; Kretschmer, Nora; Trippe, Ralf H; Hecht, Holger; Coles, Michael G H; Holroyd, Clay B; Miltner, Wolfgang H R

    2011-04-01

    Rational choice theory predicts that humans always optimize the expected utility of options when making decisions. However, in decision-making games, humans often punish their opponents even when doing so reduces their own reward. We used the Ultimatum and Dictator games to examine the affective correlates of decision-making. We show that the feedback negativity, an event-related brain potential that originates in the anterior cingulate cortex that has been related to reinforcement learning, predicts the decision to reject unfair offers in the Ultimatum game. Furthermore, the decision to reject is positively related to more negative emotional reactions and to increased autonomic nervous system activity. These findings support the idea that subjective emotional markers guide decision-making and that the anterior cingulate cortex integrates instances of reinforcement and punishment to provide such affective markers. Copyright © 2010 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  3. Menopause: developing a rational treatment plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitiello, Danielle; Naftolin, Frederick; Naftoilin, Frederick; Taylor, Hugh S

    2007-12-01

    In recent years, growing importance has been afforded to assisting women in coping with the menopausal transition. Menopause is a normal stage of development and a woman's attitude toward this transition embodies biological, psychological and social influences. An enlarging body of conflicting data concerning menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) demands reassessment of established paradigms of disease prevention and menopausal health. Currently, a woman's decision to participate in or abstain from menopausal HT is personal. It involves not only consideration of risk stratification of potential harm and benefit, but also involves her expectations and attitudes toward perceived physical and emotional changes associated with this change. Through the use of extensive patient history, quality-of-life questionnaires and powerful biological profiling, we may be able to develop a rational approach to menopausal HT that safely guides our patients through this transition.

  4. A Molecular–Structure Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan C. A. Boeyens

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The self-similar symmetry that occurs between atomic nuclei, biological growth structures, the solar system, globular clusters and spiral galaxies suggests that a similar pattern should characterize atomic and molecular structures. This possibility is explored in terms of the current molecular structure-hypothesis and its extension into four-dimensional space-time. It is concluded that a quantum molecule only has structure in four dimensions and that classical (Newtonian structure, which occurs in three dimensions, cannot be simulated by quantum-chemical computation.

  5. Antiaging therapy: a prospective hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahidi Bonjar MR

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mohammad Rashid Shahidi Bonjar,1 Leyla Shahidi Bonjar2 1School of Dentistry, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman Iran; 2Department of Pharmacology, College of Pharmacy, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran Abstract: This hypothesis proposes a new prospective approach to slow the aging process in older humans. The hypothesis could lead to developing new treatments for age-related illnesses and help humans to live longer. This hypothesis has no previous documentation in scientific media and has no protocol. Scientists have presented evidence that systemic aging is influenced by peculiar molecules in the blood. Researchers at Albert Einstein College of Medicine, New York, and Harvard University in Cambridge discovered elevated titer of aging-related molecules (ARMs in blood, which trigger cascade of aging process in mice; they also indicated that the process can be reduced or even reversed. By inhibiting the production of ARMs, they could reduce age-related cognitive and physical declines. The present hypothesis offers a new approach to translate these findings into medical treatment: extracorporeal adjustment of ARMs would lead to slower rates of aging. A prospective “antiaging blood filtration column” (AABFC is a nanotechnological device that would fulfill the central role in this approach. An AABFC would set a near-youth homeostatic titer of ARMs in the blood. In this regard, the AABFC immobilizes ARMs from the blood while blood passes through the column. The AABFC harbors antibodies against ARMs. ARM antibodies would be conjugated irreversibly to ARMs on contact surfaces of the reaction platforms inside the AABFC till near-youth homeostasis is attained. The treatment is performed with the aid of a blood-circulating pump. Similar to a renal dialysis machine, blood would circulate from the body to the AABFC and from there back to the body in a closed circuit until ARMs were sufficiently depleted from the blood. The

  6. Optimal public rationing and price response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassi, Simona; Ma, Ching-To Albert

    2011-12-01

    We study optimal public health care rationing and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and illness severity (defined as treatment cost). Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Rationed consumers may purchase from a monopolistic private market. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information (means testing). In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Rationing some poor consumers implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold (cost effectiveness). Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ron Smith; Gylfi Zoega

    2005-01-01

    We consider the hypothesis that a common factor, global expected returns, drives unemployment and investment in 21 OECD countries over the period 1960-2002. We investigate this hypothesis using a panel-factor augmented-vector autoregression (FAVAR). We first estimate the common factors of unemployment and investment by principal components and show that the first principal component of unemployment is almost identical to that of investment and that they both show the pattern one would expect ...

  8. Performance appraisal of expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russkikh G.A.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

  9. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  10. Teaching Rational Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolever, Roberts

    1978-01-01

    Presented is an outline of a college course, "Education in American Society," that focused on teaching students rational decision-making skills while examining current issues in American Education. The outline is followed by student comments, reactions, and evaluations of the course. (JMD)

  11. Rational Suicide among the Elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphry, Derek

    1992-01-01

    Contends that old age, in and of itself, should never need to be a cause for self-destruction. Further argues that suicide and assisted suicide carried out in the face of terminal illness causing unbearable suffering should be ethically and legally acceptable. Outlines a perspective on rational suicide among the elderly. (Author/NB)

  12. On a CO2 ration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Wit, P.

    2003-01-01

    In 2 years all the large energy companies in the European Union will have a CO2 ration, including a system to trade a shortage or surplus of emission rights. A cost effective system to reduce emission, provided that the government does not auction the emission rights [nl

  13. On Counting the Rational Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almada, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    In this study, we show how to construct a function from the set N of natural numbers that explicitly counts the set Q[superscript +] of all positive rational numbers using a very intuitive approach. The function has the appeal of Cantor's function and it has the advantage that any high school student can understand the main idea at a glance…

  14. Personal Autonomy and Rational Suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, May A.; Shulman, Ernest

    That certain suicides (which can be designated as rational) ought not to be interfered with is closely tied to the notion of the "right to autonomy." Specifically it is because the individual in question has this right that interference is prohibited. A proper understanding of the right to autonomy, while essential to understanding why…

  15. Is PMI the Hypothesis or the Null Hypothesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarone, Aaron M; Sanford, Michelle R

    2017-09-01

    Over the past several decades, there have been several strident exchanges regarding whether forensic entomologists estimate the postmortem interval (PMI), minimum PMI, or something else. During that time, there has been a proliferation of terminology reflecting this concern regarding "what we do." This has been a frustrating conversation for some in the community because much of this debate appears to be centered on what assumptions are acknowledged directly and which are embedded within a list of assumptions (or ignored altogether) in the literature and in case reports. An additional component of the conversation centers on a concern that moving away from the use of certain terminology like PMI acknowledges limitations and problems that would make the application of entomology appear less useful in court-a problem for lawyers, but one that should not be problematic for scientists in the forensic entomology community, as uncertainty is part of science that should and can be presented effectively in the courtroom (e.g., population genetic concepts in forensics). Unfortunately, a consequence of the way this conversation is conducted is that even as all involved in the debate acknowledge the concerns of their colleagues, parties continue to talk past one another advocating their preferred terminology. Progress will not be made until the community recognizes that all of the terms under consideration take the form of null hypothesis statements and that thinking about "what we do" as a null hypothesis has useful legal and scientific ramifications that transcend arguments over the usage of preferred terminology. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. The Stoichiometric Divisome: A Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar eVollmer

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Dividing Escherichia coli cells simultaneously constrict the inner membrane, peptidoglycan layer and outer membrane to synthesize the new poles of the daughter cells. For this, more than 30 proteins localize to mid-cell where they form a large, ring-like assembly, the divisome, facilitating division. Although the precise function of most divisome proteins is unknown, it became apparent in recent years that dynamic protein-protein interactions are essential for divisome assembly and function. However, little is known about the nature of the interactions involved and the stoichiometry of the proteins within the divisome. A recent study (Li et al., 2014 used ribosome profiling to measure the absolute protein synthesis rates in E. coli. Interestingly, they observed that most proteins which participate in known multiprotein complexes are synthesized proportional to their stoichiometry. Based on this principle we present a hypothesis for the stoichiometry of the core of the divisome, taking into account known protein-protein interactions. From this hypothesis we infer a possible mechanism for PG synthesis during division.

  17. Children's understanding of the costs and rewards underlying rational action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jara-Ettinger, Julian; Gweon, Hyowon; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Schulz, Laura E

    2015-07-01

    Humans explain and predict other agents' behavior using mental state concepts, such as beliefs and desires. Computational and developmental evidence suggest that such inferences are enabled by a principle of rational action: the expectation that agents act efficiently, within situational constraints, to achieve their goals. Here we propose that the expectation of rational action is instantiated by a naïve utility calculus sensitive to both agent-constant and agent-specific aspects of costs and rewards associated with actions. In four experiments, we show that, given an agent's choices, children (range: 5-6 year olds; N=96) can infer unobservable aspects of costs (differences in agents' competence) from information about subjective differences in rewards (differences in agents' preferences) and vice versa. Moreover, children can design informative experiments on both objects and agents to infer unobservable constraints on agents' actions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The necessity to rationalize library procedures and activities

    OpenAIRE

    Matjaž Žaucer

    2007-01-01

    The necessity of the rationalization of work and procedures in libraries due to the altered requirements and needs of users and due to the expected aggravated demands of the environment are displayed in the article. The causes for the changes in the librarianship and the causes for the changes in the environment are stated. The article analyzes the searching procedure in the Slovenian union bibliographic and catalogue database using the UDC. Upon a practical experiment it was established that...

  19. Testing two mechanisms by which rational and irrational beliefs may affect the functionality of inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, F W; Dryden, W; Briscoe, R

    1999-12-01

    This article describes a role playing experiment that examined the sufficiency hypothesis of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy (REBT). This proposition states that it is sufficient for rational and irrational beliefs to refer to preferences and musts, respectively, if those beliefs are to affect the functionality of inferences (FI). Consistent with the REBT literature (e.g. Dryden, 1994; Dryden & Ellis, 1988; Palmer, Dryden, Ellis & Yapp, 1995) results from this experiment showed that rational and irrational beliefs, as defined by REBT, do affect FI. Specifically, results showed that people who hold a rational belief form inferences that are significantly more functional than those that are formed by people who hold an irrational belief. Contrary to REBT theory, the sufficiency hypothesis was not supported. Thus, results indicated that it is not sufficient for rational and irrational beliefs to refer to preferences and musts, respectively, if those beliefs are to affect the FI. It appears, then, that preferences and musts are not sufficient mechanisms by which rational and irrational beliefs, respectively, affect the FI. Psychotherapeutic implications of these findings are considered.

  20. Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    Behavioural finance theories draw on evidence from psychology that suggest that some people respond to information in a biased manner, and construct theories of inefficient markets. However, these biases are not always robust when tested in economic conditions, which casts doubt on their relevance...... to market efficiency. We design an economic experiment to test a psychological hypothesis of errors in expectations widely cited in finance, which states that, in violations of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of an information signal. The strength of a signal is how saliently...... it supports a specific hypothesis, as opposed to its weight, which is its predictive validity. We find that the strength-weight bias affects expectations, but that its magnitude is three times lower than originally reported in the psychology literature. This suggests that its impact on financial markets...

  1. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  2. Expected Classification Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

  3. Expected utility without utility

    OpenAIRE

    Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

  4. Rationality, mental causation and social sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Ivan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of mental causation in the context of rational choice theory. The author defends psychological aspect of rational explanation against the challenge of contemporary reductive materialism.

  5. Rationality, mental causation and social sciences

    OpenAIRE

    Mladenović Ivan

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of mental causation in the context of rational choice theory. The author defends psychological aspect of rational explanation against the challenge of contemporary reductive materialism.

  6. Dynamic pricing of network goods with boundedly rational consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radner, Roy; Radunskaya, Ami; Sundararajan, Arun

    2014-01-07

    We present a model of dynamic monopoly pricing for a good that displays network effects. In contrast with the standard notion of a rational-expectations equilibrium, we model consumers as boundedly rational and unable either to pay immediate attention to each price change or to make accurate forecasts of the adoption of the network good. Our analysis shows that the seller's optimal price trajectory has the following structure: The price is low when the user base is below a target level, is high when the user base is above the target, and is set to keep the user base stationary once the target level has been attained. We show that this pricing policy is robust to a number of extensions, which include the product's user base evolving over time and consumers basing their choices on a mixture of a myopic and a "stubborn" expectation of adoption. Our results differ significantly from those that would be predicted by a model based on rational-expectations equilibrium and are more consistent with the pricing of network goods observed in practice.

  7. Love and rationality: on some possible rational effects of love

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Ortiz-Millán

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I defend the idea that rather than disrupting rationality, as the common-sense conception has done it, love may actually help us to develop rational ways of thinking and acting. I make the case for romantic or erotic love, since this is the kind of love that is more frequently associated with irrationality in acting and thinking. I argue that this kind of love may make us develop epistemic and practical forms of rationality. Based on an analysis of its characteristic action tendencies, I argue that love may help us to develop an instrumental form of rationality in determining the best means to achieve the object of love. It may also narrow down the number of practical considerations that may help us to achieve our goals. Finally, love may generate rational ways of belief-formation by framing the parameters taken into account in perception and attention, and by bringing into light only a small portion of the epistemic information available. Love may make us perceive reality more acutely.Neste artigo defendo a idéia de que, em vez de perturbar a racionalidade, como a concepção do senso comum o faz, o amor pode, na verdade, ajudar-nos a desenvolver modos racionais de pensar e agir. Dou bons argumentos para o amor romântico ou erótico, uma vez que esse é o tipo de amor que é mais freqüentemente associado à irracionalidade no agir e no pensar. Argumento que esse tipo de amor pode fazer-nos desenvolver formas epistêmicas e práticas de racionalidade. Com base em uma análise de suas tendências características para a ação, argumento que o amor pode ajudar-nos a desenvolver uma forma instrumental de racionalidade para se determinar o melhor meio de atingir o objeto de amor. Ele também pode limitar o número de considerações práticas que podem ajudar-nos a atingir os nossos objetivos. Finalmente, o amor pode gerar modos racionais de formação de crenças ao estruturar os parâmetros considerados na percepção e na aten

  8. The Younger Dryas impact hypothesis: A requiem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinter, Nicholas; Scott, Andrew C.; Daulton, Tyrone L.; Podoll, Andrew; Koeberl, Christian; Anderson, R. Scott; Ishman, Scott E.

    2011-06-01

    consistent with the diffuse, non-catastrophic input of micrometeorite ablation fallout, probably augmented by anthropogenic and other terrestrial spherular grains. Results here also show considerable subjectivity in the reported sampling methods that may explain the purported YD spherule concentration peaks. Fire is a pervasive earth-surface process, and reanalyses of the original YD sites and of coeval records show episodic fire on the landscape through the latest Pleistocene, with no unique fire event at the onset of the YD. Lastly, with YD impact proponents increasingly retreating to nanodiamonds (cubic, hexagonal [lonsdaleite], and the proposed n-diamond) as evidence of impact, those data have been called into question. The presence of lonsdaleite was reported as proof of impact-related shock processes, but the evidence presented was inconsistent with lonsdaleite and consistent instead with polycrystalline aggregates of graphene and graphane mixtures that are ubiquitous in carbon forms isolated from sediments ranging from modern to pre-YD age. Important questions remain regarding the origins and distribution of other diamond forms (e.g., cubic nanodiamonds). In summary, none of the original YD impact signatures have been subsequently corroborated by independent tests. Of the 12 original lines of evidence, seven have so far proven to be non-reproducible. The remaining signatures instead seem to represent either (1) non-catastrophic mechanisms, and/or (2) terrestrial rather than extraterrestrial or impact-related sources. In all of these cases, sparse but ubiquitous materials seem to have been misreported and misinterpreted as singular peaks at the onset of the YD. Throughout the arc of this hypothesis, recognized and expected impact markers were not found, leading to proposed YD impactors and impact processes that were novel, self-contradictory, rapidly changing, and sometimes defying the laws of physics. The YD impact hypothesis provides a cautionary tale for researchers

  9. Psychology and the Rationality of Emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clore, Gerald L

    2011-04-01

    Questions addressed by recent psychological research on emotion include questions about how thought shapes emotion and how emotion, in turn, shapes thought. Research on emotion and cognition paints a somewhat different picture than that seen in traditional discussions of passion and reason. This article reviews several aspects of this research, concentrating specifically on three views of rationality: Rationality as Process, Rationality as Product, and Rationality as Outcome.

  10. Psychology and the Rationality of Emotion*

    OpenAIRE

    Clore, Gerald L.

    2011-01-01

    Questions addressed by recent psychological research on emotion include questions about how thought shapes emotion and how emotion, in turn, shapes thought. Research on emotion and cognition paints a somewhat different picture than that seen in traditional discussions of passion and reason. This article reviews several aspects of this research, concentrating specifically on three views of rationality: Rationality as Process, Rationality as Product, and Rationality as Outcome.

  11. Psychology and the Rationality of Emotion*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clore, Gerald L.

    2014-01-01

    Questions addressed by recent psychological research on emotion include questions about how thought shapes emotion and how emotion, in turn, shapes thought. Research on emotion and cognition paints a somewhat different picture than that seen in traditional discussions of passion and reason. This article reviews several aspects of this research, concentrating specifically on three views of rationality: Rationality as Process, Rationality as Product, and Rationality as Outcome. PMID:25125770

  12. Rational use of diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Racoveanu, N.T.; Volodin, V.

    1992-01-01

    The escalating number of radiodiagnostic investigations has, as a consequence, an increase in medical irradiation of patients and of cost of radiological services. Radiologists in USA and UK have since early 1970 questioned the efficacy of various radiological investigations and produced substantial evidence that more rational approaches are necessary. WHO initiated, in 1977, a programme in this direction which has issued four technical reports which give practical recommendations on how to rationalize the use of radiological examinations. Three main directions are considered: (1) Abandonment of routine radiological examinations, as procedures with no clinical or epidemiologic significance and which represent a waste of resources and patient dose. (2) Patient selection for various radiological investigations based on clinical criteria (high, intermediate, low yield). Selected patients have an increased prevalence of the given disease and the predictive value of radiological investigation is much higher. (3) Use of diagnostic algorithms with higher cost/efficiency and risk/benefit ratios, improving the outcome of radiological examinations

  13. Electricity rationing and public response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Leonardo Rocha; Soares, Lacir Jorge

    2007-01-01

    This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energy crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza [Soares, L.J. and Souza, L.R. (2006), 'Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory', International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 17-28.], making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The structural break, as well as the forecast errors from this model, also permits verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis. (Author)

  14. Rational maps, monopoles and skyrmions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, C.J.; Manton, N.S.

    1998-01-01

    We discuss the similarities between BPS monopoles and skyrmions, and point to an underlying connection in terms of rational maps between Riemann spheres. This involves the introduction of a new ansatz for Skyrme fields. We use this to construct good approximations to several known skyrmions, including all the minimal energy configurations up to baryon number nine, and some new solutions such as a baryon number seventeen Skyrme field with the truncated icosahedron structure of a buckyball. The new approach is also used to understand the low-lying vibrational modes of skyrmions, which are required for quantization. Along the way we discover an interesting Morse function on the space of rational maps which may be of use in understanding the Sen forms on the monopole moduli spaces. (orig.)

  15. Bounded Rationality in Transposition Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vollaard, Hans; Martinsen, Dorte Sindbjerg

    2014-01-01

    Studies explaining the timeliness and correctness of the transposition of EU directives into national legislation have provided rather inconclusive findings. They do not offer a clear-cut prediction concerning the transposition of the patients’ rights directive, which is one of the first that con......Studies explaining the timeliness and correctness of the transposition of EU directives into national legislation have provided rather inconclusive findings. They do not offer a clear-cut prediction concerning the transposition of the patients’ rights directive, which is one of the first...... that concerns the organisation and financing of national healthcare systems. This article applies the perspective of bounded rationality to explain (irregularities in) the timely and correct transposition of EU directives. The cognitive and organisational constraints long posited by the bounded rationality...

  16. Rational approximations for tomographic reconstructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynolds, Matthew; Beylkin, Gregory; Monzón, Lucas

    2013-01-01

    We use optimal rational approximations of projection data collected in x-ray tomography to improve image resolution. Under the assumption that the object of interest is described by functions with jump discontinuities, for each projection we construct its rational approximation with a small (near optimal) number of terms for a given accuracy threshold. This allows us to augment the measured data, i.e., double the number of available samples in each projection or, equivalently, extend (double) the domain of their Fourier transform. We also develop a new, fast, polar coordinate Fourier domain algorithm which uses our nonlinear approximation of projection data in a natural way. Using augmented projections of the Shepp–Logan phantom, we provide a comparison between the new algorithm and the standard filtered back-projection algorithm. We demonstrate that the reconstructed image has improved resolution without additional artifacts near sharp transitions in the image. (paper)

  17. Guidelines for Rational Cancer Therapeutics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byunghee Yoo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, cancer therapy has relied on surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy. In recent years, these interventions have become increasingly replaced or complemented by more targeted approaches that are informed by a deeper understanding of the underlying biology. Still, the implementation of fully rational patient-specific drug design appears to be years away. Here, we present a vision of rational drug design for cancer that is defined by two major components: modularity and image guidance. We suggest that modularity can be achieved by combining a nanocarrier and an oligonucleotide component into the therapeutic. Image guidance can be incorporated into the nanocarrier component by labeling with a specific imaging reporter, such as a radionuclide or contrast agent for magnetic resonance imaging. While limited by the need for additional technological advancement in the areas of cancer biology, nanotechnology, and imaging, this vision for the future of cancer therapy can be used as a guide to future research endeavors.

  18. From receptor balance to rational glucocorticoid therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kloet, E Ron

    2014-08-01

    Corticosteroids secreted as end product of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis act like a double-edged sword in the brain. The hormones coordinate appraisal processes and decision making during the initial phase of a stressful experience and promote subsequently cognitive performance underlying the management of stress adaptation. This action exerted by the steroids on the initiation and termination of the stress response is mediated by 2 related receptor systems: mineralocorticoid receptors (MRs) and glucocorticoid receptors (GRs). The receptor types are unevenly distributed but colocalized in abundance in neurons of the limbic brain to enable these complementary hormone actions. This contribution starts from a historical perspective with the observation that phasic occupancy of GR during ultradian rhythmicity is needed to maintain responsiveness to corticosteroids. Then, during stress, initially MR activation enhances excitability of limbic networks that are engaged in appraisal and emotion regulation. Next, the rising hormone concentration occupies GR, resulting in reallocation of energy to limbic-cortical circuits with a role in behavioral adaptation and memory storage. Upon MR:GR imbalance, dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis occurs, which can enhance an individual's vulnerability. Imbalance is characteristic for chronic stress experience and depression but also occurs during exposure to synthetic glucocorticoids. Hence, glucocorticoid psychopathology may develop in susceptible individuals because of suppression of ultradian/circadian rhythmicity and depletion of endogenous corticosterone from brain MR. This knowledge generated from testing the balance hypothesis can be translated to a rational glucocorticoid therapy.

  19. Rational Thinking in School-Based Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Mary Kristen; Flynn, Perry

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: We reflect on Alan Kamhi's (2011) prologue on balancing certainty and uncertainty as it pertains to school-based practice. Method: In schools, rational thinking depends on effective team processes, much like professional learning communities. We consider the conditions that are required for rational thinking and how rational team dialogue…

  20. Book Selection, Collection Development, and Bounded Rationality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Charles A.

    1989-01-01

    Reviews previously proposed schemes of classical rationality in book selection, describes new approaches to rational choice behavior, and presents a model of book selection based on bounded rationality in a garbage can decision process. The role of tacit knowledge and symbolic content in the selection process are also discussed. (102 references)…

  1. RATGRAPH: Computer Graphing of Rational Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minch, Bradley A.

    1987-01-01

    Presents an easy-to-use Applesoft BASIC program that graphs rational functions and any asymptotes that the functions might have. Discusses the nature of rational functions, graphing them manually, employing a computer to graph rational functions, and describes how the program works. (TW)

  2. Rationality and the Logic of Good Reasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Walter R.

    This paper contends that the rationality of the logic of good reasons is constituted in its use. To support this claim, the paper presents an analysis of the relationship between being reasonable and being rational. It then considers how following the logic of good reasons leads to rationality in the behavior of individuals and groups; the latter…

  3. Information Transmission and Rational Inattention

    OpenAIRE

    Antonella Tutino

    2015-01-01

    We study the problem of optimal communication strategy between a fully informed agent and a rationally inattentive agent. The fully informed agent observes a sequence of shocks and transmits a message to the limited-capacity agent who takes a set of actions in response to the message. The problem of the informed agent is to seek the optimal signaling strategy that induces a behavior consistent with minimal welfare loss, uniformly over a given class of bounded utility functions. We characteriz...

  4. Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Werner

    2012-01-01

    Price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset's fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles when either one of ...

  5. Kant on empiricism and rationalism

    OpenAIRE

    Vanzo, Alberto

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to correct some widely held misconceptions concerning Kant's role in the formation of a widespread narrative of early modern philosophy. According to this narrative, which dominated the English-speaking world throughout the twentieth century, the early modern period was characterized by the development of two rival schools: René Descartes's, Baruch Spinoza's, and G. W. Leibniz's rationalism; and John Locke's, George Berkeley's, and David Hume's empiricism. Empiricists and rati...

  6. Rationing in the NHS: the dance of the seven veils-in reverse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, R; Day, P; Redmayne, S

    1995-10-01

    The 1991 reforms of the National Health Service set up the expectation that rationing would in future be explicit instead of, as in the past, implicit. This has not happened. Research carried out at the University of Bath shows that very few health authorities are rationing by exclusion on the Oregon model. Instead, both central Government and health authorities are continuing to diffuse responsibility among the medical profession. This paper analyses the reasons why. Rationing by delay and dilution are more significant-as well as less visible-than rationing by exclusion. And it is the medical profession which controls the flow of patients through waiting lists and the way in which resources are used during treatment. Similarly, it is in the self-interest of both central Government and health authorities that their resource decisions should continue to be disguised behind the veils of clinical discretion. Despite pressures for greater transparency, Britain's opaque form of rationing may therefore survive.

  7. Rational approximation of vertical segments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar Celis, Oliver; Cuyt, Annie; Verdonk, Brigitte

    2007-08-01

    In many applications, observations are prone to imprecise measurements. When constructing a model based on such data, an approximation rather than an interpolation approach is needed. Very often a least squares approximation is used. Here we follow a different approach. A natural way for dealing with uncertainty in the data is by means of an uncertainty interval. We assume that the uncertainty in the independent variables is negligible and that for each observation an uncertainty interval can be given which contains the (unknown) exact value. To approximate such data we look for functions which intersect all uncertainty intervals. In the past this problem has been studied for polynomials, or more generally for functions which are linear in the unknown coefficients. Here we study the problem for a particular class of functions which are nonlinear in the unknown coefficients, namely rational functions. We show how to reduce the problem to a quadratic programming problem with a strictly convex objective function, yielding a unique rational function which intersects all uncertainty intervals and satisfies some additional properties. Compared to rational least squares approximation which reduces to a nonlinear optimization problem where the objective function may have many local minima, this makes the new approach attractive.

  8. Memory in astrocytes: a hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caudle Robert M

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recent work has indicated an increasingly complex role for astrocytes in the central nervous system. Astrocytes are now known to exchange information with neurons at synaptic junctions and to alter the information processing capabilities of the neurons. As an extension of this trend a hypothesis was proposed that astrocytes function to store information. To explore this idea the ion channels in biological membranes were compared to models known as cellular automata. These comparisons were made to test the hypothesis that ion channels in the membranes of astrocytes form a dynamic information storage device. Results Two dimensional cellular automata were found to behave similarly to ion channels in a membrane when they function at the boundary between order and chaos. The length of time information is stored in this class of cellular automata is exponentially related to the number of units. Therefore the length of time biological ion channels store information was plotted versus the estimated number of ion channels in the tissue. This analysis indicates that there is an exponential relationship between memory and the number of ion channels. Extrapolation of this relationship to the estimated number of ion channels in the astrocytes of a human brain indicates that memory can be stored in this system for an entire life span. Interestingly, this information is not affixed to any physical structure, but is stored as an organization of the activity of the ion channels. Further analysis of two dimensional cellular automata also demonstrates that these systems have both associative and temporal memory capabilities. Conclusion It is concluded that astrocytes may serve as a dynamic information sink for neurons. The memory in the astrocytes is stored by organizing the activity of ion channels and is not associated with a physical location such as a synapse. In order for this form of memory to be of significant duration it is necessary

  9. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  10. Anomalous vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, H.

    1986-01-01

    The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

  11. Robust and distributed hypothesis testing

    CERN Document Server

    Gül, Gökhan

    2017-01-01

    This book generalizes and extends the available theory in robust and decentralized hypothesis testing. In particular, it presents a robust test for modeling errors which is independent from the assumptions that a sufficiently large number of samples is available, and that the distance is the KL-divergence. Here, the distance can be chosen from a much general model, which includes the KL-divergence as a very special case. This is then extended by various means. A minimax robust test that is robust against both outliers as well as modeling errors is presented. Minimax robustness properties of the given tests are also explicitly proven for fixed sample size and sequential probability ratio tests. The theory of robust detection is extended to robust estimation and the theory of robust distributed detection is extended to classes of distributions, which are not necessarily stochastically bounded. It is shown that the quantization functions for the decision rules can also be chosen as non-monotone. Finally, the boo...

  12. The venom optimization hypothesis revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgenstern, David; King, Glenn F

    2013-03-01

    Animal venoms are complex chemical mixtures that typically contain hundreds of proteins and non-proteinaceous compounds, resulting in a potent weapon for prey immobilization and predator deterrence. However, because venoms are protein-rich, they come with a high metabolic price tag. The metabolic cost of venom is sufficiently high to result in secondary loss of venom whenever its use becomes non-essential to survival of the animal. The high metabolic cost of venom leads to the prediction that venomous animals may have evolved strategies for minimizing venom expenditure. Indeed, various behaviors have been identified that appear consistent with frugality of venom use. This has led to formulation of the "venom optimization hypothesis" (Wigger et al. (2002) Toxicon 40, 749-752), also known as "venom metering", which postulates that venom is metabolically expensive and therefore used frugally through behavioral control. Here, we review the available data concerning economy of venom use by animals with either ancient or more recently evolved venom systems. We conclude that the convergent nature of the evidence in multiple taxa strongly suggests the existence of evolutionary pressures favoring frugal use of venom. However, there remains an unresolved dichotomy between this economy of venom use and the lavish biochemical complexity of venom, which includes a high degree of functional redundancy. We discuss the evidence for biochemical optimization of venom as a means of resolving this conundrum. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Alien abduction: a medical hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forrest, David V

    2008-01-01

    In response to a new psychological study of persons who believe they have been abducted by space aliens that found that sleep paralysis, a history of being hypnotized, and preoccupation with the paranormal and extraterrestrial were predisposing experiences, I noted that many of the frequently reported particulars of the abduction experience bear more than a passing resemblance to medical-surgical procedures and propose that experience with these may also be contributory. There is the altered state of consciousness, uniformly colored figures with prominent eyes, in a high-tech room under a round bright saucerlike object; there is nakedness, pain and a loss of control while the body's boundaries are being probed; and yet the figures are thought benevolent. No medical-surgical history was apparently taken in the above mentioned study, but psychological laboratory work evaluated false memory formation. I discuss problems in assessing intraoperative awareness and ways in which the medical hypothesis could be elaborated and tested. If physicians are causing this syndrome in a percentage of patients, we should know about it; and persons who feel they have been abducted should be encouraged to inform their surgeons and anesthesiologists without challenging their beliefs.

  14. The oxidative hypothesis of senescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilca M

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The oxidative hypothesis of senescence, since its origin in 1956, has garnered significant evidence and growing support among scientists for the notion that free radicals play an important role in ageing, either as "damaging" molecules or as signaling molecules. Age-increasing oxidative injuries induced by free radicals, higher susceptibility to oxidative stress in short-lived organisms, genetic manipulations that alter both oxidative resistance and longevity and the anti-ageing effect of caloric restriction and intermittent fasting are a few examples of accepted scientific facts that support the oxidative theory of senescence. Though not completely understood due to the complex "network" of redox regulatory systems, the implication of oxidative stress in the ageing process is now well documented. Moreover, it is compatible with other current ageing theories (e.g., those implicating the mitochondrial damage/mitochondrial-lysosomal axis, stress-induced premature senescence, biological "garbage" accumulation, etc. This review is intended to summarize and critically discuss the redox mechanisms involved during the ageing process: sources of oxidant agents in ageing (mitochondrial -electron transport chain, nitric oxide synthase reaction- and non-mitochondrial- Fenton reaction, microsomal cytochrome P450 enzymes, peroxisomal β -oxidation and respiratory burst of phagocytic cells, antioxidant changes in ageing (enzymatic- superoxide dismutase, glutathione-reductase, glutathion peroxidase, catalase- and non-enzymatic glutathione, ascorbate, urate, bilirubine, melatonin, tocopherols, carotenoids, ubiquinol, alteration of oxidative damage repairing mechanisms and the role of free radicals as signaling molecules in ageing.

  15. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  16. Natural Variation in the Sex Gap in Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Zarulli, Virginia; Christensen, Kaare

    of these environmental factors whereas small differences would reflect a lower action of the factors and approach the ‘natural’ biological level. Here we examine variability in sex differences in life expectancy in 47 historical and contemporary human populations to address our hypothesis: large sex differences in life...... that females withstand harsh environments better then males in terms of survival, partly explaining their higher life expectancy. If this hypothesis is true and females survive environmental stressors better then males then large sex differences in life expectancies could reflect the action...

  17. Emotional see-saw affects rationality of decision-making: Evidence for metacognitive impairments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folwarczny, Michał; Kaczmarek, Magdalena C; Doliński, Dariusz; Szczepanowski, Remigiusz

    2018-05-01

    This research investigated the cognitive mechanisms that underlie impairments in human reasoning triggered by the emotional see-saw technique. It has previously been stated that such manipulation is effective as it presumably induces a mindless state and cognitive deficits in compliant individuals. Based on the dual-system architecture of reasoning (system 2) and affective decision-making (system 1), we challenged the previous theoretical account by indicating that the main source of compliance is impairment of the meta-reasoning system when rapid affective changes occur. To examine this hypothesis, we manipulated affective feelings (system 1 processing) by violating participants' expectations regarding reward and performance in a go/no-go task in which individuals were to inhibit their responses to earn money. Aside from the go/no-go performance, we measured rationality (meta-reasoning system 2) in decision-making by asking participants to comply with a nonsensical request. We found that participants who were exposed to meta-reasoning impairments due to the emotional see-saw phenomenon exhibited mindless behavior. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, Renske; Bos, Annemieke; Hoogstraten, Johan

    2009-12-01

    To investigate the expectations of children and their primary care-givers towards orthodontic treatment and to compare the results with those of a UK sample. A questionnaire survey of children and their primary care-givers attending for their first consultation. The Department of Orthodontics at the Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), the Netherlands. A total of 168 subjects (84 patients and 84 parents) completed the questionnaire. The children were aged 10 to 14 years. The responses of the children and parents and differences between boys and girls were examined using parametric statistical methods. The data from the Dutch sample were compared with a similar UK sample. Patients and parents shared similar expectations of orthodontic treatment, with the exception of expectations of having a brace fitted at the first appointment, orthodontic treatment involving headgear, any problems with orthodontic treatment, duration of orthodontic treatment and concerning reactions from the public. Among the child participants, boys and girls only differed in their expectations of orthodontic treatment involving jaw surgery. Differences between Dutch and English participants were found regarding the first visit, type of orthodontic treatment, reactions from the public, and pain and problems with orthodontic treatment. Since the expectations of patients and their parents differ on several aspects, effective communication between the orthodontist, patient and parent is considered to be essential. Our hypothesis that Dutch patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment differ from the expectations of English patients and parents was supported.

  19. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

    2009-10-01

    What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research.

  20. Behavior, Expectations and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Jr, Murray; Rashotte, Lisa Slattery

    2010-01-01

    We predict effects of behavior patterns and status on performance expectations and group inequality using an integrated theory developed by Fisek, Berger and Norman (1991). We next test those predictions using new experimental techniques we developed to control behavior patterns as independent variables. In a 10-condition experiment, predictions…

  1. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes...

  2. Rekonsiliasi Perseteruan antara Efficient Market Hypothesis dan Behavioral Finance melalui Perspektif Neuroeconomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satia Nur Maharani

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Behavioral finance evaluation on Efficient Market Hypothesis causes debates among scientists supporting both theories. This article describes a comprehensive debate between rational behavior perspective on the Efficient Market Hypothesis with irrational behavior on behavioral finance, and how neuroeconomics shed some light on these two perspectives. This article gives a wider range of colors to represent investors behavior that is very complex, and encourage the growth of new generations of related theory of capital markets through interdisciplinary collaboration. Findings indicated that neuroeconomics perspective identified economic behavior through psychological functions.

  3. Coherent states and rational surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brody, Dorje C; Graefe, Eva-Maria

    2010-01-01

    The state spaces of generalized coherent states associated with special unitary groups are shown to form rational curves and surfaces in the space of pure states. These curves and surfaces are generated by the various Veronese embeddings of the underlying state space into higher dimensional state spaces. This construction is applied to the parameterization of generalized coherent states, which is useful for practical calculations, and provides an elementary combinatorial approach to the geometry of the coherent state space. The results are extended to Hilbert spaces with indefinite inner products, leading to the introduction of a new kind of generalized coherent states.

  4. Emotions and Decisions: Beyond Conceptual Vagueness and the Rationality Muddle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volz, Kirsten G; Hertwig, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    For centuries, decision scholars paid little attention to emotions: Decisions were modeled in normative and descriptive frameworks with little regard for affective processes. Recently, however, an "emotions revolution" has taken place, particularly in the neuroscientific study of decision making, putting emotional processes on an equal footing with cognitive ones. Yet disappointingly little theoretical progress has been made. The concepts and processes discussed often remain vague, and conclusions about the implications of emotions for rationality are contradictory and muddled. We discuss three complementary ways to move the neuroscientific study of emotion and decision making from agenda setting to theory building. The first is to use reverse inference as a hypothesis-discovery rather than a hypothesis-testing tool, unless its utility can be systematically quantified (e.g., through meta-analysis). The second is to capitalize on the conceptual inventory advanced by the behavioral science of emotions, testing those concepts and unveiling the underlying processes. The third is to model the interplay between emotions and decisions, harnessing existing cognitive frameworks of decision making and mapping emotions onto the postulated computational processes. To conclude, emotions (like cognitive strategies) are not rational or irrational per se: How (un)reasonable their influence is depends on their fit with the environment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. A Critical Examination of Kant's Hypothesis that Citizens should have an Interest in Avoiding War

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jarvad, Ib Martin

    In the paper I discuss the hypothesis that citizens of any well ordered republic will put their own rational interests before the ambitions of their rulers  suggesting that it is the hub of the entire project for a pacific federation  which lends some power of enforcement behind otherwise unsanct...... unsanctioned contractual international obligations. If so the premises need critical examination for their apparent simplicity is deceptive....

  6. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  7. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative to...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations....

  8. Expectancy Theory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    accomplish the task, (2) the instrumentality of task performance for job outcomes, and (3) the instrumentality of outcomes for need satisfaction . We...in this discussion: effort, performance , outcomes, and needs. In order to present briefly the conventional approach to the Vroom models, another...Presumably, this is the final event in the sequence of effort, performance , outcome, and need satisfaction . The actual research reported in expectancy

  9. Expectations from the child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Atabek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Transition from agricultural society to industry society, from industrial society to science society has taken place. In all these societies, expectations from children also vary. In the agricultural community, human labor is based on arm power. For this reason, expectation from children is to increase work power. Having more children is the basis for the expectations in this community to see that the boy is valuable because he has increased his work power. In the industrial society, the power of the arm changed its place with the machine power. The knowledgeable person is not a family grown-up but a foreman. Childhood was distinguished during this period. It has been investigated that the child has a separate development.  In the information society, communication and information has never been as fast as it is in this period.  The widespread use of the Internet, and the use of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter are in this period. In this society, families are panicked to prepare a future in their own heads for their children. Because the parents thought of their children, they decided about the child's life instead of the child making these decisions. This has had a negative impact on children's sense of autonomy and their ability to take responsibility. To change this, parents should train their children in auto control and develop children's impulse control skills. The children should be able to understand their emotions and make decisions by reasoning and reasoning.

  10. Effect of rational and irrational statements on intensity and 'inappropriateness' of emotional distress and irrational beliefs in psychotherapy patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, D; Kupshik, G

    1993-09-01

    Ellis's rational-emotive theory postulates that since irrational statements augment emotional distress, replacing irrational with rational statements should lessen distress. This hypothesis was tested in the initial stages of psychotherapy by having 13 and 14 clinical out-patients respectively repeat for one minute either rational or irrational statements about their major presenting psychological problem. The distinction by Ellis & Harper (1975) that 'inappropriate' emotions differ qualitatively from 'appropriate' emotions was also examined. Although the experimental intervention had no effect on a post-test measure of irrational beliefs, patients repeating rational statements had significantly lower appropriate and inappropriate negative emotions at post-test, suggesting that inappropriate emotions do not differ qualitatively from appropriate emotions and that making rational statements may lower emotional distress in patients. Patients reiterating irrational statements showed no change in emotions, implying that these kinds of irrational cognitions may have already been present.

  11. Reappraisal of Rational Choice Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katalin Martinas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The value of rational choice theory (RCT for the social sciences has long been contested. Much time has been spent by economists and critics on the pervasive but elusive concept of rationality. The critiques mainly challenge the basis of the utility theorem. Several articles on the misuse of mathematics in economics have already appeared in the literature. As N. Bouleau stated, “On several occasions, however, one feels that the criticism is that the math is being misused and should be developed in some other direction (e.g. a statistical analysis of the financial tendencies that polarize wealth and income, or a study of the positive feedback mechanisms, etc.. This leaves certain dissatisfaction – on a philosophical level.” The aim of this paper is to present a decision theory, yields intention (logos and valuation (existence. Here we present a new mathematical representation of RCT, which leads to a dynamic economic theory. We discuss the philosophical or meta-economical problems, which are needed for the successful applications of mathematics.

  12. Rationally reduced libraries for combinatorial pathway optimization minimizing experimental effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeschek, Markus; Gerngross, Daniel; Panke, Sven

    2016-03-31

    Rational flux design in metabolic engineering approaches remains difficult since important pathway information is frequently not available. Therefore empirical methods are applied that randomly change absolute and relative pathway enzyme levels and subsequently screen for variants with improved performance. However, screening is often limited on the analytical side, generating a strong incentive to construct small but smart libraries. Here we introduce RedLibs (Reduced Libraries), an algorithm that allows for the rational design of smart combinatorial libraries for pathway optimization thereby minimizing the use of experimental resources. We demonstrate the utility of RedLibs for the design of ribosome-binding site libraries by in silico and in vivo screening with fluorescent proteins and perform a simple two-step optimization of the product selectivity in the branched multistep pathway for violacein biosynthesis, indicating a general applicability for the algorithm and the proposed heuristics. We expect that RedLibs will substantially simplify the refactoring of synthetic metabolic pathways.

  13. Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Richards, Simon; Verstraete, Matthieu

    2016-01-01

    Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. The data are aggregated to construct an inflation expectations index. Results based on the index suggest that expectations are not consistent with the rationality assumption but are, still, more comp...

  14. Referral expectations of radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, W.L.; Altmaier, E.; Berberoglu, L.; Morris, K.

    1989-01-01

    The expectation of the referring physician are key to developing a successful practice in radiology. Structured interviews with 17 clinicians in both community care and academic practice documented that accuracy of the radiologic report was the single most important factor in clinician satisfaction. Data intercorrelation showed that accuracy of report correlated with frequency of referral (r = .49). Overall satisfaction of the referring physician with radiology correlated with accuracy (r = .69), patient satisfaction (r = .36), and efficiency in archiving (r = .42). These data may be weighted by departmental managers to allocate resources for improving referring physician satisfaction

  15. Agreeing on expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Bentsen, Martin Juul

    Commitment and trust are often mentioned as important aspects of creating a perception of reliability between counterparts. In the context of university-industry collaborations (UICs), agreeing on ambitions and expectations are adamant to achieving outcomes that are equally valuable to all parties...... involved. Despite this, our initial probing indicated that such covenants rarely exist. As such, this paper draws on project management theory and proposes the possibility of structuring assessments of potential partners before university-industry collaborations are brought to life. Our analysis suggests...

  16. Testing the stress shadow hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felzer, Karen R.; Brodsky, Emily E.

    2005-05-01

    of a stress shadow following the 1906 San Francisco Bay area earthquake. We find that while Bay Area catalog seismicity rates are lower in the first half of the twentieth century than in the last half of the nineteenth, this seismicity contrast is also true outside of the Bay Area, in regions not expected to contain a stress shadow. This suggests that the rate change is due to a more system wide effect, such as errors in the historical catalog or the decay of aftershocks of the larger 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake.

  17. Simplifications of rational matrices by using UML

    OpenAIRE

    Tasić, Milan B.; Stanimirović, Ivan P.

    2013-01-01

    The simplification process on rational matrices consists of simplifying each entry represented by a rational function. We follow the classic approach of dividing the numerator and denominator polynomials by their common GCD polynomial, and provide the activity diagram in UML for this process. A rational matrix representation as the quotient of a polynomial matrix and a polynomial is also discussed here and illustrated via activity diagrams. Also, a class diagram giving the links between the c...

  18. Freedom and Rationality : Rousseau on Citizenship

    OpenAIRE

    Salvat, Christophe

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with Rousseau's idea of freedom in terms of rationality and deliberation. It gives support to Berlin's interpretation of the general will as a rational and objective will but dismisses the idea that Rousseau's theory necessarily leads to authoritarianism. The general will, publicly expressed by the law, may be defined as the rational and self-regarding will agents would have if put in an independent and objective state, i.e. the state of nature. The general and the particular...

  19. Rational choice, neuroeconomy and mixed emotions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livet, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    Experimental psychology has shown differences between predictions of theory of decision and human choices. Emotions like regret can partly explain these differences. Neuroimagery used in combination with behavioural economics (neuroeconomics) has been used in order to try to disentangle the different emotional and rational factors (regret, rejoicing, reward, costs, uncertainty, trade-off between positive and negative aspects of different options). Emotions then appear as much more complex and mixed affective states than usually assumed. Not only might we feel a positive affect in punishing unfair partners, but mixed emotions can, for example, combine transmutation of previous anxiety into relief and elation by comparison with another less exciting option (elating relief). At the level of complexity of these mixed emotions—which we formally represent by comparisons between ‘unexpected utilities’ and expected ones—the main biases that Kahnemann and Tversky have shown can be explained. In spite of the complexity of these mixed emotions, some of these hypotheses might be partially tested by brain imagery. PMID:20026464

  20. Rational choice, neuroeconomy and mixed emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livet, Pierre

    2010-01-27

    Experimental psychology has shown differences between predictions of theory of decision and human choices. Emotions like regret can partly explain these differences. Neuroimagery used in combination with behavioural economics (neuroeconomics) has been used in order to try to disentangle the different emotional and rational factors (regret, rejoicing, reward, costs, uncertainty, trade-off between positive and negative aspects of different options). Emotions then appear as much more complex and mixed affective states than usually assumed. Not only might we feel a positive affect in punishing unfair partners, but mixed emotions can, for example, combine transmutation of previous anxiety into relief and elation by comparison with another less exciting option (elating relief). At the level of complexity of these mixed emotions--which we formally represent by comparisons between 'unexpected utilities' and expected ones--the main biases that Kahnemann and Tversky have shown can be explained. In spite of the complexity of these mixed emotions, some of these hypotheses might be partially tested by brain imagery.

  1. Nonlinear delay monopoly with bounded rationality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Akio; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamics of a monopolistic firm in a continuous-time framework. The firm is assumed to be boundedly rational and to experience time delays in obtaining and implementing information on output. The dynamic adjustment process is based on the gradient of the expected profit. The paper is divided into three parts: we examine delay effects on dynamics caused by one-time delay and two-time delays in the first two parts. Global dynamics and analytical results on local dynamics are numerically confirmed in the third part. Four main results are demonstrated. First, the stability switch from stability to instability occurs only once in the case of a single delay. Second, the alternation of stability and instability can continue if two time delays are involved. Third, the occurence of Hopf bifurcation is analytically shown if stability is lost. Finally, in a bifurcation process, there are a period-doubling cascade to chaos and a period-halving cascade to the equilibrium point in the case of two time delays if the difference between the two delays is large.

  2. Expected Signal Observability at Future Experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Bartsch, Valeria

    2005-01-01

    Several methods to quantify the ''significance'' of an expected signal at future experiments have been used or suggested in literature. In this note, comparisons are presented with a method based on the likelihood ratio of the ''background hypothesis'' and the ''signal-plus-background hypothesis''. A large number of Monte Carlo experiments are performed to investigate the properties of the various methods and to check whether the probability of a background fluctuation having produced the claimed significance of the discovery is properly described. In addition, the best possible separation between the two hypotheses should be provided, in other words, the discovery potential of a future experiment be maximal. Finally, a practical method to apply a likelihood-based definition of the significance is suggested in this note. Signal and background contributions are determined from a likelihoo d fit based on shapes only, and the probability density distributions of the significance thus determined are found to be o...

  3. Validity of Linder Hypothesis in Bric Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Atabay

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the theory of similarity in preferences (Linder hypothesis has been introduced and trade in BRIC countries has been examined whether the trade between these countries was valid for this hypothesis. Using the data for the period 1996 – 2010, the study applies to panel data analysis in order to provide evidence regarding the empirical validity of the Linder hypothesis for BRIC countries’ international trade. Empirical findings show that the trade between BRIC countries is in support of Linder hypothesis.

  4. Reference-dependent risk sensitivity as rational inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denrell, Jerker C

    2015-07-01

    Existing explanations of reference-dependent risk sensitivity attribute it to cognitive imperfections and heuristic choice processes. This article shows that behavior consistent with an S-shaped value function could be an implication of rational inferences about the expected values of alternatives. Theoretically, I demonstrate that even a risk-neutral Bayesian decision maker, who is uncertain about the reliability of observations, should use variability in observed outcomes as a predictor of low expected value for outcomes above a reference level, and as a predictor of high expected value for outcomes below a reference level. Empirically, I show that combining past outcomes using an S-shaped value function leads to accurate predictions about future values. The theory also offers a rationale for why risk sensitivity consistent with an inverse S-shaped value function should occur in experiments on decisions from experience with binary payoff distributions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Geometric Rationalization for Freeform Architecture

    KAUST Repository

    Jiang, Caigui

    2016-06-20

    The emergence of freeform architecture provides interesting geometric challenges with regards to the design and manufacturing of large-scale structures. To design these architectural structures, we have to consider two types of constraints. First, aesthetic constraints are important because the buildings have to be visually impressive. Sec- ond, functional constraints are important for the performance of a building and its e cient construction. This thesis contributes to the area of architectural geometry. Specifically, we are interested in the geometric rationalization of freeform architec- ture with the goal of combining aesthetic and functional constraints and construction requirements. Aesthetic requirements typically come from designers and architects. To obtain visually pleasing structures, they favor smoothness of the building shape, but also smoothness of the visible patterns on the surface. Functional requirements typically come from the engineers involved in the construction process. For exam- ple, covering freeform structures using planar panels is much cheaper than using non-planar ones. Further, constructed buildings have to be stable and should not collapse. In this thesis, we explore the geometric rationalization of freeform archi- tecture using four specific example problems inspired by real life applications. We achieve our results by developing optimization algorithms and a theoretical study of the underlying geometrical structure of the problems. The four example problems are the following: (1) The design of shading and lighting systems which are torsion-free structures with planar beams based on quad meshes. They satisfy the functionality requirements of preventing light from going inside a building as shad- ing systems or reflecting light into a building as lighting systems. (2) The Design of freeform honeycomb structures that are constructed based on hex-dominant meshes with a planar beam mounted along each edge. The beams intersect without

  6. Rational Drug Use of Nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehtap Sahingoz

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: At this study to be aimed to assess status of the knowledge of nurses who working in public and private health institutions in Sivas province use of medication fort he treatment during their illnesses and patients and the attitudes of rational drug application. Matherials and methods: the researc planned to attend 750 nurses but it has been completed with participation of 641 nurses (Reaching rate 85,5%. This is a descriptive and cross-sectional study. in the study data were collected with a questionaire, percentages stated and chi square test was used for analysis. Results: %95,3 of nurses were females and mean age of them 29.21±4.85 years. The rate of contacting a doktor in case of illness is higher in 39.1% of nurses in the 21-30 age group and 48.6% of nurses working in primary care institutions. The level of self-treating is higher in 45.5 % of nurses working less than a year in profession .In the case of illness, 53% of nurses stated that they had left the medicine when signs of disease over. %98.8 of nurses expressed that they know effects of drugs used and 99.1% of them stated they know the side effects of drugs used. The entire group of postgraduate education status stated that they have not received the drug recommended by others. The level of suggesting a drug to someone else fort he same disease is higher in 65.8% of the group 31 years and older and group working over 40 hours per week. It were determined that used in consultation with the physician 65.2% of nurses antibiotics, 87.5% of them weiht loss drug and 82.7% of them contraceptive . 99.5% of the nurses have expressed that they inform to patients about use of their medications. Among the issues that expressed informations took place the application form of drugs (51.0 %and information of need to consult one if deemed one unexpected effect (59.6% . Also has been identified that of nurses acquired inform about drugs from drug book (vademecum (87.5 % and they

  7. Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-05-29

    survival in a competitive environment , and a minority of rational individuals can sometimes impose rationality on the whole market. Third, the...intuitive appeal of the axioms of rational choice makes it plausible that the theory derived from these axioms should provide an acceptable account of choice...rn-use U? RATIONAL CHOICE AMD THE FINNING OF KCISIOUS(U mi/ STANFORD UNIV CR A TYERSEY ET AL. 29 NAYN4-S4-K-S61SWICLASS IF lED FO 5/10S IL EEEEEEEE

  8. Rationality in Machiavelli and in Kant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vadim Chaly

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper contains interpretation and comparative analysis of Machiavelli’s and Kant’s conceptions on rationality as two prime examples of “realist” and “idealist” modes of agency. Kantian model of rationality is viewed as an augmentation of the Machiavellian one, not an opposition to it. To elaborate the point, Robert Aumann’s model of act-rationality and rulerationality is applied to the two philosophical models. Kantian practical reason is interpreted as an addition to Aumann’s instrumental rationality, providing rules for rules, or “rule-rule-rationality”.

  9. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  10. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  11. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  12. Rational use of diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Racoveanu, N.T.; Volodin, V.

    1992-01-01

    Radiologists in USA and UK have since early 1970 questioned the efficacy of various radiological investigations and produced substantial evidence that more rational approaches are necessary. WHO initiated, in 1977, a programme which has issued four technical reports giving practical recommendations on how to rationalise the use of radiological examinations. Three main directions are considered: (1) Abandonment of routine radiological examinations, as procedures with no clinical or epidemiologic significance and which represent a waste of resources and patient dose. (2) Patient selection for various radiological investigations based on clinical criteria (high, intermediate, low yield). Selected patients have an increased prevalence of the given disease and the predictive value of radiological investigation is much higher. (3) Use of diagnostic algorithms with higher cost/efficiency and risk/benefit ratios, improving the outcome of radiological examinations. (author)

  13. RATIONAL PHARMACOTHERAPY IN TAKOTSUBO CARDIOMYOPATHY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Marchev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Rational pharmacotherapy in Takotsubo cardiomyopathy is based on clinical picture and data of functional and laboratory investigations of concrete patient. In patients with hypotension and moderate-to-severe left ventricle outflow tract obstruction inotropic agents must not to be used because they can worsen the degree of obstruction. In these patients beta blockers can improve hemodynamics by causing resolution of the obstruction. If intraventricular thrombus is detected, anticoagulation for at least 3 months is recommended. The duration of anticoagulant therapy may be modified depending on the extent of cardiac function recovery and thrombus resolution. For patients without thrombus but with severe left ventricular dysfunction, anticoagulation is recommended until the akinesis or dyskinesis has resolved but not more than 3 months.

  14. Max Weber's Types of Rationality: Cornerstones for the Analysis of Rationalization Processes in History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalberg, Stephen

    1980-01-01

    Explores rationality in Max Weber's works and identifies four types of rationality which play major roles in his writing--practical, theoretical, substantive, and formal. Implications for society and education are discussed. (DB)

  15. Life Expectancy in Patients Treated for Osteoporosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Osmond, Clive; Cooper, Cyrus

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a chronic disease, carrying an elevated risk of fractures, morbidity, and death. Long-term treatment may be required, but the long-term risks with osteoporosis drugs remain incompletely understood. The competing risk of death may be a barrier to treating the oldest, yet this may...... not be rational if the risk of death is reduced by treatment. It is difficult to devise goal-directed long-term strategies for managing osteoporosis without firm information about residual life expectancy in treated patients. We conducted an observational study in Danish national registries tracking prescriptions...... for osteoporosis drugs, comorbid conditions, and deaths. We included 58,637 patients and 225,084 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Information on deaths until the end of 2013 was retrieved, providing a follow-up period of 10 to 17 years. In men younger than 80 years and women younger than 60 years...

  16. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  17. Customer experiences and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Customer experiences and expectations from competition and cogeneration in the power industry were reviewed by Charles Morton, Director of Energy at CPC International, by describing Casco's decision to get into cogeneration in the early 1990s in three small corn milling plants in Cardinal, London and Port Colborne, Ontario, mainly as result of the threat of a 40 per cent increase in power prices. He stressed that cost competitiveness of cogeneration is entirely site-specific, but it is generally more attractive in larger facilities that operate 24 hours a day, where grid power is expensive or unreliable. Because it is reliable, cogeneration holds out the prospect of increased production-up time, as well as offering a hedge against higher energy costs, reducing the company's variable costs when incoming revenues fall short of costs, and providing an additional tool in head-to-head competition

  18. Hypothesis Testing in the Real World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    Critics of null hypothesis significance testing suggest that (a) its basic logic is invalid and (b) it addresses a question that is of no interest. In contrast to (a), I argue that the underlying logic of hypothesis testing is actually extremely straightforward and compelling. To substantiate that, I present examples showing that hypothesis…

  19. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  20. Reassessing the Trade-off Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosas, Guillermo; Manzetti, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    Do economic conditions drive voters to punish politicians that tolerate corruption? Previous scholarly work contends that citizens in young democracies support corrupt governments that are capable of promoting good economic outcomes, the so-called trade-off hypothesis. We test this hypothesis based...

  1. Mastery Learning and the Decreasing Variability Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Jennifer A.; Gentile, J. Ronald

    1996-01-01

    This report results from studies that tested two variations of Bloom's decreasing variability hypothesis using performance on successive units of achievement in four graduate classrooms that used mastery learning procedures. Data do not support the decreasing variability hypothesis; rather, they show no change over time. (SM)

  2. Is It Rational to Assume that Infants Imitate Rationally? A Theoretical Analysis and Critique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulus, Markus

    2012-01-01

    It has been suggested that preverbal infants evaluate the efficiency of others' actions (by applying a "principle of rational action") and that they imitate others' actions rationally. The present contribution presents a conceptual analysis of the claim that preverbal infants imitate rationally. It shows that this ability rests on at least three…

  3. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  4. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  5. Beyond rational expectations: the effects of heuristic switching in an overlapping generations model

    OpenAIRE

    Boone, Brecht; Quaghebeur, Ewoud

    2018-01-01

    We explore the transitional dynamics in an Overlapping Generations framework with and without heuristic switching. Agents use simple heuristics to forecast the interest rate and the real wage. The fraction of agents using a specific heuristic depends on its relative forecasting performance. In the absence of heuristic switching, the results indicate that there is a lot of variation in the transitional dynamics over different parameter values and heuristics. They might even oscillate or diverg...

  6. Unanticipated money and the demand for foreign assets : a rational expectations approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1995-01-01

    This paper is an attempt at empirically investigating one of the building blocks of the foreign exchange market - the demand for foreign financial assets - under two alternative monetary policy rules (the fixed rate of growth of money rule and the feedback monetary policy rule) using time series

  7. How Rational Are Inflation Expectations? A Vector Autoregression Decomposition of Inflation Forecasts and Their Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ladvogt, Timothy

    2002-01-01

    ... the persistence of forecast errors. A reduced form VAR is used to identify potential inefficiencies and then calculate the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of forecasts errors to analyze how shocks to the other endogenous...

  8. How Rational Are Inflation Expectations? A Vector Autoregression Decomposition of Inflation Forecasts and Their Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ladvogt, Timothy

    2002-01-01

    ... inflation forecast data from the Livingston Survey and the ASA/NBER Survey of Professional Forecasters over the past 30 years to determine what publicly available macroeconomic information, if any, explains...

  9. Rationing in health systems: A critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keliddar, Iman; Mosadeghrad, Ali Mohammad; Jafari-Sirizi, Mehdi

    2017-01-01

    Background: It is difficult to provide health care services to all those in need of such services due to limited resources and unlimited demands. Thus, priority setting and rationing have to be applied. This study aimed at critically examining the concept of rationing in health sector and identifying its purposes, influencing factors, mechanisms, and outcomes. Methods: The critical interpretive synthesis methodology was used in this study. PubMed, Cochrane, and Proquest databases were searched using the related key words to find related documents published between 1970 and 2015. In total, 161 published reports were reviewed and included in the study. Thematic content analysis was applied for data analysis. Results: Health services rationing means restricting the access of some people to useful or potentially useful health services due to budgetary limitation. The inherent features of the health market and health services, limited resources, and unlimited needs necessitate health services rationing. Rationing can be applied in 4 levels: health care policy- makers, health care managers, health care providers, and patients. Health care rationing can be accomplished through fixed budget, benefit package, payment mechanisms, queuing, copayments, and deductibles. Conclusion: This paper enriched our understanding of health services rationing and its mechanisms at various levels and contributed to the literature by broadly conceptualizing health services rationing.

  10. Fiber sources for complete calf starter rations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, F R; Wallenius, R W

    1980-11-01

    Complete calf starter rations containing either 1) alfalfa hay, 2) cottonseed hulls, or 3) alfalfa-beet pulp as sources of fiber were fed to Holstein heifer calves at two locations on a limited milk program from 3 days to 12 wk of age. Rations were isonitrogenous and similar in content of crude fiber and acid detergent fiber. Although growth and development were normal on all rations, calves fed the cottonseed hull ration consumed more starter and gained more body weight than calves fed the other sources of fiber. The similarity of feed efficiencies, rumen pH, and molar ratios of volatile fatty acids between rations indicated no appreciable differences in rumen development or function. The growth response of calves fed the cottonseed hull ration appeared to be a result of better ration acceptability for which no reason was evident. Calves raised at Puyallup gained more body weight than calves at Pullman, and these gains were made more efficiently. These location effects may be related to seasonal differences and greater demands for production of body heat. Although the incidence of scours was less for calves fed alfalfa hay starter, the incidence and severity of bloat were higher for that ration.

  11. The Problem of Rational Moral Enlistment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillson, John

    2017-01-01

    How can one bring children to recognize the requirements of morality without resorting only to non-rational means of persuasion (i.e. what rational ground can be offered to children for their moral enlistment)? Michael Hand has recently defended a foundationalist approach to answering this question and John White has responded by (a) criticizing…

  12. Neurophysiology and Rationality in Political Thinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Steven A.

    Research both in cognitive psychology and psychobiology suggests that political behavior is often less rational than individuals believe it to be. Information processing, memory, and decision making are interlinked processes. Studies in cognitive psychology reveal that even though decision making requires rationality, individuals often adopt…

  13. Privacy-Enhancing Auctions Using Rational Cryptography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miltersen, Peter Bro; Nielsen, Jesper Buus; Triandopoulos, Nikolaos

    2009-01-01

    show how to use rational cryptography to approximately implement any given ex interim individually strictly rational equilibrium of such an auction without a trusted mediator through a cryptographic protocol that uses only point-to-point authenticated channels between the players. By “ex interim...

  14. The Role of Rationality in University Budgeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffee, Ellen Earle

    1983-01-01

    Although empirical accounts of organizational decision making often show that the process is not a rational one, a study of budgeting at Stanford University during the 1970s, while not conclusive or comprehensive, supported the claim that the institution's process was rational and provided a procedure for testing a decision-making model. (MSE)

  15. Should Teachers Be Taught to Be Rational?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floden, Robert E.; Feiman, Sharon

    1981-01-01

    Teacher education programs have long attempted to teach students to follow a rational mode of thinking. Recent research on teacher thinking has shown that a gap exists between how teachers think and the rational model. Such research should be used to give teacher educators insight into how their students think and learn. (JN)

  16. MARSI: metabolite analogues for rational strain improvement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardoso, João G. R.; Zeidan, Ahmad A; Jensen, Kristian

    2018-01-01

    reactions in an organism can be used to predict effects of MAs on cellular phenotypes. Here, we present the Metabolite Analogues for Rational Strain Improvement (MARSI) framework. MARSI provides a rational approach to strain improvement by searching for metabolites as targets instead of genes or reactions...

  17. RATIONAL APPROXIMATIONS TO GENERALIZED HYPERGEOMETRIC FUNCTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Under weak restrictions on the various free parameters, general theorems for rational representations of the generalized hypergeometric functions...and certain Meijer G-functions are developed. Upon specialization, these theorems yield a sequency of rational approximations which converge to the

  18. The rational maps Fλ(z)

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    It is proved that the rational maps in the family {z → zm +λ/zd : λ ∈ C\\{0}} for integers m, d ≥ 2 ... The problem of the existence of Herman rings of a rational map has been studied by. Lyubich in [9] ..... Surveys 41(4) (1986) 35–95. [10] Milnor J ...

  19. Decision Making: Rational, Nonrational, and Irrational.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Herbert A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the current state of knowledge about human decision-making and problem-solving processes, explaining recent developments and their implications for management and management training. Rational goal-setting is the key to effective decision making and accomplishment. Bounded rationality is a realistic orientation, because the world is too…

  20. Simple market equilibria with rationally inattentive consumers

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 102, č. 3 (2012), s. 24-29 ISSN 0002-8282 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP402/11/P236 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : rational choice theory * bounded rationality * consumer research Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.792, year: 2012

  1. The Emotional and Moral Basis of Rationality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boostrom, Robert

    2013-01-01

    This chapter explores the basis of rationality, arguing that critical thinking tends to be taught in schools as a set of skills because of the failure to recognize that choosing to think critically depends on the prior development of stable sentiments or moral habits that nourish a rational self. Primary among these stable sentiments are the…

  2. A Theory of Rational Junk-Food Consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Levy, Amnon

    2002-01-01

    An expected lifetime-utility maximizing diet of junk and health food is analyzed. The stationary junk-food consumption level is equal to the ratio of the recovery capacity of a perfectly healthy person to the sensitivity of her health to junk food. The greater the difference between the relative taste and the stationary relative price of junk food, rate of time preference, and elasticity of satisfaction from food, the better the stationary health of the rational junk-food consumer. The greate...

  3. Environmental Management: the Ideology of Natural Resource Rational Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolotukhin, V. M.; Gogolin, V. A.; Yazevich, M. Yu; Baumgarten, M. I.; Dyagileva, A. V.

    2017-01-01

    The article presents an analysis of the ontological and methodological principles of environmental management. These principles form the united ideology of natural resource rational use as the environment preservation basis. Consideration of environmental issues from the environmental management point of view is stipulated by the concern of the scientific community about the existence of mankind and the sphere of its inhabiting. The need to overcome the stereotypes existing in mass consciousness about safe and environmentally friendly consumption is stressed. The process of forming environmental management policy should contribute to the stabilization (balancing) of the consumers’ expectations and collective decision-making based on a public ecological consensus.

  4. Rationing in the emergency department: the good, the bad, and the unacceptable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, E; Goodacre, S; O'Cathain, A; Arnold, J

    2005-03-01

    Waiting times in emergency departments (EDs) are an important government priority. Although substantial efforts are currently being made to reduce waiting times, little attention has been paid to the patients' view. We used qualitative methods to explore patients' perspectives on waiting times and other approaches to rationing and prioritisation. Face to face, in depth, qualitative interviews (n = 11) explored how patients valued waiting times for non-urgent ED care. The framework approach (identifying a thematic framework through repeated re-reading) was used to analyse transcripts. Interviewees found some forms of rationing and prioritisation acceptable. They expected rationing by delay, but required explanations or information on the reason for their wait. They valued prioritisation by triage (rationing by selection) and thought that this role could be expanded for the re-direction of non-urgent patients elsewhere (rationing by deflection). Interviewees were mainly unwilling or unable to engage in prioritisation of different types of patients, openly prioritising only those with obvious clinical need, and children. However, some interviewees were willing to ration implicitly, labelling some attenders as inappropriate, such as those causing a nuisance. Others felt it was unacceptable to blame "inappropriate" attenders, as their attendance may relate to lack of information or awareness of service use. Explicit rationing between services was not acceptable, although some believed there were more important priorities for NHS resources than ED waiting times. Interviewees disagreed with the hypothetical notion of paying to be seen more quickly in the ED (rationing by charging). Interviewees expected to wait and accepted the need for prioritisation, although they were reluctant to engage in judgements regarding prioritisation. They supported the re-direction of patients with certain non-urgent complaints. However, they perceived a need for more explanation and

  5. Argumentation, rationality, and psychology of reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Godden

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper explicates an account of argumentative rationality by articulating the common, basic idea of its nature, and then identifying a collection of assumptions inherent in it. Argumentative rationality is then contrasted with dual-process theories of reasoning and rationality prevalent in the psychology of reasoning. It is argued that argumentative rationality properly corresponds only with system-2 reasoning in dual-process theories. This result challenges the prescriptive force of argumentative norms derives if they derive at all from their descriptive accuracy of our cognitive capacities. In response, I propose an activity-based account of reasoning which retains the assumptions of argumentative rationality while recontextualizing the relationship between reasoning as a justificatory activity and the psychological states and processes underlying that activity.

  6. Casebook on rationalization of power use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-06-01

    This book introduces the cases on rationalization of power use, which is divided into four parts. The first part refers the goal of rational use of energy and the result. The second part deals with the excellent cases on rationalization of domestic power use, which list the name of the company, hotel and factory according to the field such as building, textile and food. The third part contains the outstanding cases on rationalization of foreign power use, which were listed by the specific way to reduce electricity use each section. The fourth part is comprised of two chapters, which deals with the cases of domestic technical data and foreign technical data for rational use of energy.

  7. Generalized NLS hierarchies from rational W algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toppan, F.

    1993-11-01

    Finite rational W algebras are very natural structures appearing in coset constructions when a Kac-Moody subalgebra is factored out. The problem of relating these algebras to integrable hierarchies of equations is studied by showing how to associate to a rational W algebra its corresponding hierarchy. Two examples are worked out, the sl(2)/U(1) coset, leading to the Non-Linear Schroedinger hierarchy, and the U(1) coset of the Polyakov-Bershadsky W algebra, leading to a 3-field representation of the KP hierarchy already encountered in the literature. In such examples a rational algebra appears as algebra of constraints when reducing a KP hierarchy to a finite field representation. This fact arises the natural question whether rational algebras are always associated to such reductions and whether a classification of rational algebras can lead to a classification of the integrable hierarchies. (author). 19 refs

  8. Expectations from ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. Patricia Fleming, centred her presentation on ethical expectations in regulating safety for future generations. The challenge is to find a just solution, one that provides for a defensible approach to inter-generational equity. The question on equity is about whether we are permitted to treat generations differently and to still meet the demands of justice. And the question must be asked regarding these differences: 'in what ways do they make a moral difference?' She asked the question regarding the exact meaning of the ethical principle 'Radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way that predicted impacts on the health of future generations will not be greater than relevant levels of impact that are acceptable today'. Some countries have proposed different standards for different time periods, either implicitly or explicitly. In doing so, have they preserved our standards of justice or have they abandoned them? Prof. Fleming identified six points to provide with some moral maps which might be used to negotiate our way to a just solution to the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  9. Ethics of rationing of nursing care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooddehghan, Zahra; Yekta, Zohreh Parsa; Nasrabadi, Alireza N

    2016-09-21

    Rationing of various needed services, for example, nursing care, is inevitable due to unlimited needs and limited resources. Rationing of nursing care is considered an ethical issue since it requires judgment about potential conflicts between personal and professional values. The present research sought to explore aspects of rationing nursing care in Iran. This study applied qualitative content analysis, a method to explore people's perceptions of everyday life phenomena and interpret the subjective content of text data. Data collection was performed through in-depth, unstructured, face-to-face interviews with open-ended questions. The study population included Iranian nurses of all nursing positions, from clinical nurses to nurse managers. Purposive sampling was employed to select 15 female and 3 male nurses (11 clinical nurses, 3 supervisors, 1 matron, 1 nurse, and 2 members of the Nursing Council) working in hospitals of three cities in Iran. The study protocol was approved by Tehran University of Medical Sciences (91D1302870). Written informed consent was also obtained from all participants. According to the participants, rationing of nursing care consisted of two categories, that is, causes of rationing and consequences of rationing. The first category comprised three subcategories, namely, patient needs and demands, routinism, and VIP patients. The three subcategories forming the second category were missed nursing care, patient dissatisfaction, and nurses' feeling of guilt. Levels at which healthcare practices are rationed and clarity of the rationing are important structural considerations in the development of an equal, appropriate, and ethical healthcare system. Moreover, the procedure of rationing is critical as it not only influences people's lives but also reflects the values that dominate in the society. Therefore, in order to minimize the negative consequences of rationing of nursing care, further studies on the ethical dimensions of this phenomenon

  10. Prospective detection of large prediction errors: a hypothesis testing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruan, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Real-time motion management is important in radiotherapy. In addition to effective monitoring schemes, prediction is required to compensate for system latency, so that treatment can be synchronized with tumor motion. However, it is difficult to predict tumor motion at all times, and it is critical to determine when large prediction errors may occur. Such information can be used to pause the treatment beam or adjust monitoring/prediction schemes. In this study, we propose a hypothesis testing approach for detecting instants corresponding to potentially large prediction errors in real time. We treat the future tumor location as a random variable, and obtain its empirical probability distribution with the kernel density estimation-based method. Under the null hypothesis, the model probability is assumed to be a concentrated Gaussian centered at the prediction output. Under the alternative hypothesis, the model distribution is assumed to be non-informative uniform, which reflects the situation that the future position cannot be inferred reliably. We derive the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for this hypothesis testing problem and show that with the method of moments for estimating the null hypothesis Gaussian parameters, the LRT reduces to a simple test on the empirical variance of the predictive random variable. This conforms to the intuition to expect a (potentially) large prediction error when the estimate is associated with high uncertainty, and to expect an accurate prediction when the uncertainty level is low. We tested the proposed method on patient-derived respiratory traces. The 'ground-truth' prediction error was evaluated by comparing the prediction values with retrospective observations, and the large prediction regions were subsequently delineated by thresholding the prediction errors. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to describe the performance of the proposed hypothesis testing method. Clinical implication was represented by miss

  11. Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamatzakis, E.; Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the rationality of the price forecasts for energy commodities of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE), departing from the common assumption in the literature that DOE's forecasts are based on a symmetric underlying loss function with respect to positive vs. negative forecast errors. Instead, we opt for the methodology of Elliott et al. (2005) that allows testing the joint hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function and rationality and reveals the underlying preferences of the forecaster. Results indicate the existence of asymmetries in the shape of the loss function for most energy categories with preferences leaning towards optimism. Moreover, we also examine whether there is a structural break in those preferences over the examined period, 1997–2012. - Highlights: • Examine the rationality of DOE energy forecasts. • Departing from a symmetric underlying loss function. • Asymmetries exist in most energy prices. • Preferences lean towards optimism. • Examine structural breaks in those preferences

  12. Breaking the Bounds of Rationality: Values, Relationships, and Decision-making in Mexican Fishing Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole D Peterson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In fishing communities in Baja California Sur, Mexico, fisheries management is heavily influenced by models of individual economic rationality held by biologists and others involved in management, in which fishermen ′choose′ to overfish because they are motivated by selfish individual rationality. Yet there is much that is neglected by these models, including the pressures of economic markets, family and community expectations, and cultural and personal value systems. Actual decisions about fishing and resource management rarely match the expectations of classical or neoliberal economic models of individual behaviour. I argue here that rational choice theory is a historically and culturally constructed discourse that becomes a taken-for-granted lens for viewing behaviour around the world. The effects of this discourse can be seen in the policies that are derived from them, as shown through this case study.

  13. Expectations from Society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blowers, A.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. A. Blowers observed that the social context within which radioactive waste management is considered has evolved over time. The early period where radioactive waste was a non-issue was succeeded by a period of intense conflict over solutions. The contemporary context is more consensual, in which solutions are sought that are both technically sound and socially acceptable. Among the major issues is that of inter-generational equity embraced in the question: how long can or should our responsibility to the future extend? He pointed out the differences in timescales. On the one hand, geo-scientific timescales are very long term, emphasizing the issue of how far into the future it is possible to make predictions about repository safety. By contrast, socio cultural timescales are much shorter, focusing on the foreseeable future of one or two generations and raising the issue of how far into the future we should be concerned. He listed. the primary expectations from society which are: safety and security to alleviate undue burdens to future generations and flexibility in order to enable the future generations to have a stake in decision making. The need to reconcile the two had led to a contemporary emphasis on phased geological disposal incorporating retrievability. However, the long timescales for implementation of disposal provided for sufficient flexibility without the need for retrievability. Future generations would inevitably have sold stake in decision making. Prof. A.. Blowers pointed out that society is also concerned with participation in decision making for implementation. The key elements for success are: openness and transparency, staged process, participation, partnership, benefits to enhance the well being of communities and a democratic framework for decision making, including the ratification of key decisions and the right for communities to withdraw from the process up to a predetermined point. This approach for decision making may also have

  14. Expected years ever married

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Mogi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM. We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage, location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage, and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion. We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.

  15. Definition of rational antiepileptic polypharmacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilder, B J; Homan, R W

    1996-01-01

    Rational polypharmacy is in its earliest stages of development and will require substantial additional development to realize its full potential. Indeed, despite the powerful appeal of the concept, clinical proof is not yet available that RP is superior to monotherapy. Important questions need to be addressed: 1. Will RP control seizures more effectively than monotherapy? 2. What data are needed to develop RP for a specific patient? 3. Will RP be cost effective? 4. Can RP be developed which will treat or prevent epilepsy while controlling seizures? Possible approaches to these questions could include: 1. The development of a data base for prospective use to monitor patients being treated at Epilepsy Centers using RP principles. 2. Use the data obtained from the above to construct more specific studies to compare identified combination therapies with monotherapy. 3. Prospectively compare in a placebo controlled, blinded study, the effect of the combination of an anti-ictal medication and a laboratory proven antiepileptic drug for prevention of the development of epilepsy in an at risk population such as head trauma or stroke.

  16. Rationality, institutions and environmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vatn, Arild [Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Aas (Norway)

    2005-11-01

    This paper is about how institutions determine choices and the importance of this for environmental policy. The model of individual rational choice from neoclassical economics is compared with the model of socially determined behavior. While in the first case, institutions are either exempted from or understood as mere economizing constraints on behavior, the latter perspective views institutions as basic structures necessary also to enable people to act. The paper develops a way to integrate the individualistic model into the wider perspective of social constructivism by viewing it as a special form of such construction. On the basis of this synthesis three issues with relevance for environmental economics are discussed. First, the role of institutional factors in the process of preference formation is emphasized. Next, the role of institutions for the choice of desired states of the environment is analyzed. Finally, the effect of various policy instruments to motivate people to produce these states is discussed. It is concluded that the core policy issue is to determine which institutional frameworks are most reasonable to apply to which kind of problem. Issues, which from the perspective of neoclassical economics are pure technical, become serious value questions if understood from an institutional perspective.

  17. Explaining Compound Generalization in Associative and Causal Learning Through Rational Principles of Dimensional Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, Fabian A.; Gershman, Samuel J.; Niv, Yael

    2014-01-01

    How do we apply learning from one situation to a similar, but not identical, situation? The principles governing the extent to which animals and humans generalize what they have learned about certain stimuli to novel compounds containing those stimuli vary depending on a number of factors. Perhaps the best studied among these factors is the type of stimuli used to generate compounds. One prominent hypothesis is that different generalization principles apply depending on whether the stimuli in a compound are similar or dissimilar to each other. However, the results of many experiments cannot be explained by this hypothesis. Here we propose a rational Bayesian theory of compound generalization that uses the notion of consequential regions, first developed in the context of rational theories of multidimensional generalization, to explain the effects of stimulus factors on compound generalization. The model explains a large number of results from the compound generalization literature, including the influence of stimulus modality and spatial contiguity on the summation effect, the lack of influence of stimulus factors on summation with a recovered inhibitor, the effect of spatial position of stimuli on the blocking effect, the asymmetrical generalization decrement in overshadowing and external inhibition, and the conditions leading to a reliable external inhibition effect. By integrating rational theories of compound and dimensional generalization, our model provides the first comprehensive computational account of the effects of stimulus factors on compound generalization, including spatial and temporal contiguity between components, which have posed longstanding problems for rational theories of associative and causal learning. PMID:25090430

  18. Expectations from implementers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biurrun, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2008-01-01

    Enrique Biurrun (DBE) presented the expectations from the implementer. He explained that the implementer needs a framework to successfully develop a repository which means the definition of requirements and guidance (for repository system development, analysis, licences, etc.) as well as the decision-making process (stepwise approach, roles of different players, etc.). He also needs a reasonable stability of the regulatory system. The regulatory framework should be developed in a clear, reasonable and consistent manner. In the context of the long duration of the project (100 years) there will be technological progress. In that context E. Biurrun asked what is the meaning of best practice. How can one deal with judgmental issues in a step-wise approach? Regulatory criteria and guidance must deal with the repository system for which an iterative process is necessary where dialogue is needed with the regulator despite the need to maintain his independence. The safety case, which is a periodic documentation of the status of the project, must provide a synthesis of the underlying scientific understanding and evidence and becomes part of the design process through feedback. E. Biurrun pointed out that safety is not calculated or assessed, but designed and built into the repository system (by geological and engineered barriers). He stressed the importance of the operational aspects since the implementer has to build and operate the repository safely. He asked the question: is it 'Ethical' to buy 'peace of mind' of some stakeholders with casualties of the implementer's staff because of mining accidents if the repository is left open during a phase of reversibility. The implementer needs dependable criteria, legal security and investment security. He interpreted the 'Precautionary principle' as meaning 'do it now'. Long-lasting solutions are very uncertain. Will we heave the money and the technology to do it later? He made some reflections regarding the ethical need to

  19. Income inequality, redistribution and poverty: Contrasting rational choices and behavioural perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Luebker, Malte

    2012-01-01

    Based on the standard axiom of individual utility maximization, rational choice has postulated that higher income inequality translates into greater redistribution by shaping the median voter’s preferences. While numerous papers have tested this proposition, the literature has remained divided over the appropriate measure for redistribution. Revisiting the original contribution by Meltzer and Richard, the present paper argues that the median voter hypothesis implies that relative redistributi...

  20. Implications of the Bohm-Aharonov hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, G.C.; Rimini, A.; Weber, T.

    1976-01-01

    It is proved that the Bohm-Aharonov hypothesis concerning largerly separated subsystems of composite quantum systems implies that it is impossible to express the dynamical evolution in terms of the density operator

  1. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2014-01-01

    incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well

  2. The predictive power of dividend yields for future inflation: Money illusion or rational causes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    slope coefficients that increase numerically with the horizon in regressions of future inflation onto the dividend yield, in accordance with the data. A purely rational version of the model with no money illusion, but with a link from expected inflation to real consumption growth, also generates...

  3. INTERNET AMONG STUDENTS – FROM MATHEMATICAL RATIONALITY TO UNREALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarik Bazdalić

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Today’s modern lifestyle and contemporary ways of working and gaining knowledge in schools and universities could not be imagined without high technology – the Internet. Simply said, internet entered all the pores of contemporary life in big style. If used rationally, internet can truly facilitate work in all spheres of modern man’s life. However, internet also has a dark side which comes to light if its excessive use becomes internet addiction, or internet infatuation. We reached this hypothesis through everyday contact with students in class as well as our colleagues teachers. In order to determine if and to what extent internet addiction among students exists, we applied a generic method, that is, we used survey as one of techniques of research. The survey was conducted in October of academic year 2017/2018. Sample of 79 students was selectedfrom first and fourth grades in Secondary school “Muhsin Rizvić” in Kakanj.

  4. The (not so) Immortal Strand Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Tomasetti, Cristian; Bozic, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    Background: Non-random segregation of DNA strands during stem cell replication has been proposed as a mechanism to minimize accumulated genetic errors in stem cells of rapidly dividing tissues. According to this hypothesis, an “immortal” DNA strand is passed to the stem cell daughter and not the more differentiated cell, keeping the stem cell lineage replication error-free. After it was introduced, experimental evidence both in favor and against the hypothesis has been presented. Principal...

  5. Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Danling

    2008-01-01

    This paper develops two competing hypotheses for the relation between the cross-sectional standard deviation of logarithmic firm fundamental-to-price ratios (``dispersion'') and expected aggregate returns. In models with fully rational beliefs, greater dispersion indicates greater risk and higher expected aggregate returns. In models with investor overconfidence, greater dispersion indicates greater mispricing and lower expected aggregate returns. Consistent with the behavioral models, the re...

  6. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  7. Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, B J

    1996-01-01

    Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

  8. Rational Inference of Beliefs and Desires From Emotional Expressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yang; Baker, Chris L; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Schulz, Laura E

    2018-04-01

    We investigated people's ability to infer others' mental states from their emotional reactions, manipulating whether agents wanted, expected, and caused an outcome. Participants recovered agents' desires throughout. When the agent observed, but did not cause the outcome, participants' ability to recover the agent's beliefs depended on the evidence they got (i.e., her reaction only to the actual outcome or to both the expected and actual outcomes; Experiments 1 and 2). When the agent caused the event, participants' judgments also depended on the probability of the action (Experiments 3 and 4); when actions were improbable given the mental states, people failed to recover the agent's beliefs even when they saw her react to both the anticipated and actual outcomes. A Bayesian model captured human performance throughout (rs ≥ .95), consistent with the proposal that people rationally integrate information about others' actions and emotional reactions to infer their unobservable mental states. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  9. Positivity Preserving Interpolation Using Rational Bicubic Spline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samsul Ariffin Abdul Karim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the positivity preserving interpolation for positive surfaces data by extending the C1 rational cubic spline interpolant of Karim and Kong to the bivariate cases. The partially blended rational bicubic spline has 12 parameters in the descriptions where 8 of them are free parameters. The sufficient conditions for the positivity are derived on every four boundary curves network on the rectangular patch. Numerical comparison with existing schemes also has been done in detail. Based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, our partially blended rational bicubic spline is on a par with the established methods.

  10. Rational Verification in Iterated Electric Boolean Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youssouf Oualhadj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Electric boolean games are compact representations of games where the players have qualitative objectives described by LTL formulae and have limited resources. We study the complexity of several decision problems related to the analysis of rationality in electric boolean games with LTL objectives. In particular, we report that the problem of deciding whether a profile is a Nash equilibrium in an iterated electric boolean game is no harder than in iterated boolean games without resource bounds. We show that it is a PSPACE-complete problem. As a corollary, we obtain that both rational elimination and rational construction of Nash equilibria by a supervising authority are PSPACE-complete problems.

  11. Positroids Induced by Rational Dyck Paths

    OpenAIRE

    Gotti, Felix

    2017-01-01

    A rational Dyck path of type $(m,d)$ is an increasing unit-step lattice path from $(0,0)$ to $(m,d) \\in \\mathbb{Z}^2$ that never goes above the diagonal line $y = (d/m)x$. On the other hand, a positroid of rank $d$ on the ground set $[d+m]$ is a special type of matroid coming from the totally nonnegative Grassmannian. In this paper we describe how to naturally assign a rank $d$ positroid on the ground set $[d+m]$, which we name rational Dyck positroid, to each rational Dyck path of type $(m,d...

  12. [Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  13. Beyond rational imitation: learning arbitrary means actions from communicative demonstrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király, Ildikó; Csibra, Gergely; Gergely, György

    2013-10-01

    The principle of rationality has been invoked to explain that infants expect agents to perform the most efficient means action to attain a goal. It has also been demonstrated that infants take into account the efficiency of observed actions to achieve a goal outcome when deciding whether to reenact a specific behavior or not. It is puzzling, however, that they also tend to imitate an apparently suboptimal unfamiliar action even when they can bring about the same outcome more efficiently by applying a more rational action alternative available to them. We propose that this apparently paradoxical behavior is explained by infants' interpretation of action demonstrations as communicative manifestations of novel and culturally relevant means actions to be acquired, and we present empirical evidence supporting this proposal. In Experiment 1, we found that 14-month-olds reenacted novel arbitrary means actions only following a communicative demonstration. Experiment 2 showed that infants' inclination to reproduce communicatively manifested novel actions is restricted to behaviors they can construe as goal-directed instrumental acts. The study also provides evidence that infants' reenactment of the demonstrated novel actions reflects epistemic motives rather than purely social motives. We argue that ostensive communication enables infants to represent the teleological structure of novel actions even when the causal relations between means and end are cognitively opaque and apparently violate the efficiency expectation derived from the principle of rationality. This new account of imitative learning of novel means shows how the teleological stance and natural pedagogy--two separate cognitive adaptations to interpret instrumental versus communicative actions--are integrated as a system for learning socially constituted instrumental knowledge in humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. The Myth of the Rational Decision Maker: A Framework for Applying and Enhancing Heuristic and Intuitive Decision Making by School Leaders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Stephen H.

    2004-01-01

    This article takes a critical look at administrative decision making in schools and the extent to which complex decisions conform to normative models and common expectations of rationality. An alternative framework for administrative decision making is presented that is informed, but not driven, by theories of rationality. The framework assumes…

  15. Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

    2010-11-01

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on

  16. The effectiveness of rational emotive therapy on achievement ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effectiveness of rational emotive therapy on achievement motivation of students. ... PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH ... the effectiveness of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy on Students Achievement Motivation.

  17. Popper, Rationality and the Possibility of Social Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danny Frederick

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Social science employs teleological explanations which depend upon the rationality principle, according to which people exhibit instrumental rationality. Popper points out that people also exhibit critical rationality, the tendency to stand back from, and to question or criticise, their views. I explain how our critical rationality impugns the explanatory value of the rationality principle and thereby threatens the very possibility of social science. I discuss the relationship between instrumental and critical rationality and show how we can reconcile our critical rationality with the possibility of social science if we invoke Popper’s conception of limited rationality and his indeterminism.

  18. Examination of the embargo hypothesis as an explanation for the Great Silence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deardorff, J. W.

    1987-08-01

    The embargo or quarantine hypothesis for explaining the 'Great Silence' is reviewed and found to be more plausible than the view that, at most, earth might expect to receive radio messages from some distant star. The latter hypothesis is shown to be compatible with extraterrestrial technologies only a few hundred years in advance of those on earth, whereas the embargo hypothesis more reasonably infers that they should be tens of thousands of years in advance and in control of any contact with humanity. Reasons why the embargo hypothesis has received insufficient attention are presented; they involve failure to allow for the application of both greatly advanced technology and high ethical values by maturing societies of extraterrestrial intelligence. The implication of the embargo hypothesis for space development is that planets already harboring diverse biota are ethically off-limits for exploitive colonization.

  19. Smooth surfaces from rational bilinear patches

    KAUST Repository

    Shi, Ling; Wang, Jun; Pottmann, Helmut

    2014-01-01

    Smooth freeform skins from simple panels constitute a challenging topic arising in contemporary architecture. We contribute to this problem area by showing how to approximate a negatively curved surface by smoothly joined rational bilinear patches

  20. Bounded rational choice behaviour: applications in transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo

    2016-01-01

    Even though the theory of rational behaviour has been challenged for almost 100 years, the dominant approach within the field of transport has been based upon the assumptions of neoclassical economics that we live in a world of rational decision makers who always have perfect knowledge and aim...... rational choice behaviour focuses on how the latter approach can be seriously taken into account within transport applications. As the editors discuss in the introduction, a true optimal choice can only be made if an individual has full and perfect information of all relevant attributes in his/her choice...... set. An individual is said to demonstrate bounded rational behaviour if he/she does not systematically consider all attributes deemed relevant for the decision problem at hand, does not consider all choice options and/or does not choose the best choice alternative. Such simplified representation...

  1. Principles of Economic Rationality in Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivalan, Marion; Winter, York; Nachev, Vladislav

    2017-12-12

    Humans and non-human animals frequently violate principles of economic rationality, such as transitivity, independence of irrelevant alternatives, and regularity. The conditions that lead to these violations are not completely understood. Here we report a study on mice tested in automated home-cage setups using rewards of drinking water. Rewards differed in one of two dimensions, volume or probability. Our results suggest that mouse choice conforms to the principles of economic rationality for options that differ along a single reward dimension. A psychometric analysis of mouse choices further revealed that mice responded more strongly to differences in probability than to differences in volume, despite equivalence in return rates. This study also demonstrates the synergistic effect between the principles of economic rationality and psychophysics in making quantitative predictions about choices of healthy laboratory mice. This opens up new possibilities for the analyses of multi-dimensional choice and the use of mice with cognitive impairments that may violate economic rationality.

  2. Pandemic ventilator rationing and appeals processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

    2011-06-01

    In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans.

  3. Rationally inattentive seller: sales and discrete pricing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 83, č. 3 (2016), s. 1125-1155 ISSN 0034-6527 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : rational inattention * nominal rigidity * sticky prices Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.030, year: 2016

  4. Rigid pricing and rationally inattentive consumer

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip

    158 B, July (2015), s. 656-678 ISSN 0022-0531 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : rational inattention * imperfect information * nominal rigidity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2015

  5. Rigid pricing and rationally inattentive consumer

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip

    158 B, July (2015), s. 656-678 ISSN 0022-0531 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : rational inattention * imperfect information * nominal rigidity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2015

  6. Intraclutch variation in avian eggshell pigmentation: the anaemia hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Coster, Greet; De Neve, Liesbeth; Lens, Luc

    2012-10-01

    Many passerine species lay eggs that are speckled with dark protoporphyrin pigmentation. Because protoporphyrin is mainly derived from the blood, we here formulate and test a new hypothesis that links an increase in anaemia along the laying sequence to within-clutch variation in egg pigmentation. More intense pigmentation is expected if pigments accumulate during enhanced red blood cell production in response to anaemia. Reduced pigmentation is expected if pigments are derived from the degradation of red blood cells that circulate in smaller numbers due to blood loss. To test this hypothesis, we manipulated anaemia in great tit (Parus major) females by infesting the nests with hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) prior to egg laying. Polychromatophil (i.e., immature red blood cells) percentage, as a measure of blood cell production, was positively correlated with parasite load confirming that female great tits experienced stronger anaemia when infested with haematophagous parasites during egg laying. We found a positive relationship between spot darkness and laying order that weakened under high parasite load. This result suggests that anaemia in females due to blood-sucking parasites led to diminished protoporphyrin from disintegrated red blood cells and hence a decreased deposition of protoporphyrin. However, the overall increase in pigment darkness along the laying sequence suggests that pigments also accumulate by enhanced red blood cell production caused by anaemia due to egg production itself.

  7. Analytic aspects of rational conformal field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiritsis, E.B.; Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA

    1990-01-01

    The problem of deriving linear differential equations for correlation functions of Rational Conformal Field Theories is considered. Techniques from the theory of fuchsian differential equations are used to show that knowledge of the central charge, dimensions of primary fields and fusion rules are enough to fix the differential equations for one- and two-point functions on the tours. Any other correlation function can be calculated along similar lines. The results settle the issue of 'exact solution' of rational conformal field theories. (orig.)

  8. Rational emotive behaviour therapy: distinctive features

    OpenAIRE

    Dryden, Windy

    2008-01-01

    Rational emotive behaviour therapy (REBT) encourages the client to focus on their emotional problems in order to understand, challenge and change the irrational beliefs that underpin these problems. REBT can help clients to strengthen conviction in their alternative rational beliefs by acting in ways that are consistent with them and thus encourage a healthier outlook.\\ud \\ud This accessible and direct guide introduces the reader to REBT while indicating how it is different from other approac...

  9. Rationally Addicted to Drinking and Smoking?

    OpenAIRE

    Bask, Mikael; Melkersson, Maria

    2001-01-01

    When modeling demand for addictive consumption goods, the most widely used framework is the rational addiction model proposed by Becker and Murphy (1988). In the present paper, we extend the rational addiction model to include two addictive consumption goods, alcohol and cigarettes. We estimate the aggregate demand for alcohol and cigarettes in Sweden, using aggregate annual time series on sales volumes for the period 1955-1999. OLS estimates are compared to GMM estimates allowing for possibl...

  10. Changing Conspiracy Beliefs through Rationality and Ridiculing

    OpenAIRE

    Orosz, Gábor; Krekó, Péter; Paskuj, Benedek; Tóth-Király, István; Bőthe, Beáta; Roland-Lévy, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Conspiracy theory (CT) beliefs can be harmful. How is it possible to reduce them effectively? Three reduction strategies were tested in an online experiment using general and well-known CT beliefs on a comprehensive randomly assigned Hungarian sample (N = 813): exposing rational counter CT arguments, ridiculing those who hold CT beliefs, and empathizing with the targets of CT beliefs. Several relevant individual differences were measured. Rational and ridiculing arguments were effective in re...

  11. Risk-Based, Hypothesis-Driven Framework for Hydrological Field Campaigns with Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harken, B.; Rubin, Y.

    2014-12-01

    There are several stages in any hydrological modeling campaign, including: formulation and analysis of a priori information, data acquisition through field campaigns, inverse modeling, and prediction of some environmental performance metric (EPM). The EPM being predicted could be, for example, contaminant concentration or plume travel time. These predictions often have significant bearing on a decision that must be made. Examples include: how to allocate limited remediation resources between contaminated groundwater sites or where to place a waste repository site. Answering such questions depends on predictions of EPMs using forward models as well as levels of uncertainty related to these predictions. Uncertainty in EPM predictions stems from uncertainty in model parameters, which can be reduced by measurements taken in field campaigns. The costly nature of field measurements motivates a rational basis for determining a measurement strategy that is optimal with respect to the uncertainty in the EPM prediction. The tool of hypothesis testing allows this uncertainty to be quantified by computing the significance of the test resulting from a proposed field campaign. The significance of the test gives a rational basis for determining the optimality of a proposed field campaign. This hypothesis testing framework is demonstrated and discussed using various synthetic case studies. This study involves contaminated aquifers where a decision must be made based on prediction of when a contaminant will arrive at a specified location. The EPM, in this case contaminant travel time, is cast into the hypothesis testing framework. The null hypothesis states that the contaminant plume will arrive at the specified location before a critical amount of time passes, and the alternative hypothesis states that the plume will arrive after the critical time passes. The optimality of different field campaigns is assessed by computing the significance of the test resulting from each one

  12. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  13. Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan: public comments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-12-01

    Under the proposed plan, DOE would allocate ration rights (rights to purchase gasoline) to owners of registered vehicles. All vehicles in a given class would receive the same entitlement. Essential services would receive supplemental allotments of ration rights as pririty firms. Once every 3 months, ration checks would be mailed out to all vehicle registrants, allotting them a certain amount of ration rights. These checks would then be cashed at Coupon Issuance Points, where the bearer would receive ration coupons to be used at gasoline stations. Large users of gasoline could deposit their allotment checks in accounts at ration banks. Coupons or checks would be freely exchangeable in a white market. A certain percentage of the gasoline supply would be set aside in reserve for use in national emergencies. When the plan was published in the Federal Register, public comments were requested. DOE also solicited comments from private citizens, public interest groups, business and industry, state and local governments. A total of 1126 responses were reveived and these are analyzed in this paper. The second part of the report describes how the comments were classified, and gives a statistical breakdown of the major responses. The last section is a discussion and analysis of theissue raised by commenting agencies, firms, associations, and individuals. (MCW)

  14. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Martínez-Tur

    Full Text Available The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  15. Intergroup Conflict and Rational Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384

  16. Multiple hypothesis tracking for the cyber domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwoegler, Stefan; Blackman, Sam; Holsopple, Jared; Hirsch, Michael J.

    2011-09-01

    This paper discusses how methods used for conventional multiple hypothesis tracking (MHT) can be extended to domain-agnostic tracking of entities from non-kinematic constraints such as those imposed by cyber attacks in a potentially dense false alarm background. MHT is widely recognized as the premier method to avoid corrupting tracks with spurious data in the kinematic domain but it has not been extensively applied to other problem domains. The traditional approach is to tightly couple track maintenance (prediction, gating, filtering, probabilistic pruning, and target confirmation) with hypothesis management (clustering, incompatibility maintenance, hypothesis formation, and Nassociation pruning). However, by separating the domain specific track maintenance portion from the domain agnostic hypothesis management piece, we can begin to apply the wealth of knowledge gained from ground and air tracking solutions to the cyber (and other) domains. These realizations led to the creation of Raytheon's Multiple Hypothesis Extensible Tracking Architecture (MHETA). In this paper, we showcase MHETA for the cyber domain, plugging in a well established method, CUBRC's INFormation Engine for Real-time Decision making, (INFERD), for the association portion of the MHT. The result is a CyberMHT. We demonstrate the power of MHETA-INFERD using simulated data. Using metrics from both the tracking and cyber domains, we show that while no tracker is perfect, by applying MHETA-INFERD, advanced nonkinematic tracks can be captured in an automated way, perform better than non-MHT approaches, and decrease analyst response time to cyber threats.

  17. Aminoglycoside antibiotics and autism: a speculative hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manev Hari

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Recently, it has been suspected that there is a relationship between therapy with some antibiotics and the onset of autism; but even more curious, some children benefited transiently from a subsequent treatment with a different antibiotic. Here, we speculate how aminoglycoside antibiotics might be associated with autism. Presentation We hypothesize that aminoglycoside antibiotics could a trigger the autism syndrome in susceptible infants by causing the stop codon readthrough, i.e., a misreading of the genetic code of a hypothetical critical gene, and/or b improve autism symptoms by correcting the premature stop codon mutation in a hypothetical polymorphic gene linked to autism. Testing Investigate, retrospectively, whether a link exists between aminoglycoside use (which is not extensive in children and the onset of autism symptoms (hypothesis "a", or between amino glycoside use and improvement of these symptoms (hypothesis "b". Whereas a prospective study to test hypothesis "a" is not ethically justifiable, a study could be designed to test hypothesis "b". Implications It should be stressed that at this stage no direct evidence supports our speculative hypothesis and that its main purpose is to initiate development of new ideas that, eventually, would improve our understanding of the pathobiology of autism.

  18. Effective Entrepreneurial Choice: The Role of Rationality and Non-Rationality in Three Entrepreneurs Success Stories

    OpenAIRE

    Chong, Anne Michele, Siang Yoon

    2007-01-01

    Good entrepreneurship is important for economic growth and productivity in any modern economy. The purpose of this dissertation is to research how good entrepreneurial decisions are made. In theory, optimal or rational decision making means choosing the best alternative in response to the problem. However, in reality, people do not act rationally because they often cannot make rational choices. The reason is that people do not have enough brain power, time or resources to process the compl...

  19. Lying for Strategic Advantage: Rational and Boundedly Rational Misrepresentation of Intentions

    OpenAIRE

    Crawford, Vincent P.

    2001-01-01

    Starting from Hendricks and McAfee's (2000) example of the Allies' decision to feint at Calais and attack at Normandy on D-Day, this paper models misrepresentation of intentions to competitors or enemies. Allowing for the possibility of bounded strategic rationality and rational players' responses to it yields a sensible account of lying via costless, noiseless messages. In many cases the model has generically unique pure-strategy sequential equilibria, in which rational players exploit bound...

  20. The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naresh Kumar Sharma

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Empirical inferences about particular forms of agents’ inflation expectations are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. This paper is an attempt to explore the properties of the Reserve Bank of India’s survey data of households’ inflation expectations. The paper shows that survey respondents do not form expectations rationally, regardless of the reference measures of inflation used. Further, results indicate that inflation expectations are formed purely in backward-looking manner, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI has a low degree of credibility within the survey respondents. The study then formulates a model to identify individual elements of the backward-looking expectations in the data. The results suggest that the respondents’ short term expectations for WPI inflation are purely naïve type of expectations, only influenced by respondents earlier period expectations. In the case of CPIIW inflation, the results however suggest that the short-term expectations are not purely naïve type, but also contain adaptive as well as a static forms of expectations. This means that respondents consider their previous forecast errors about CPIIW inflation and draw recent price developments in the CPIIW while forming their overall short-term inflation expectations. This finding provides some formal evidence that the CPI based inflation measure is better suited, than WPI inflation, as a nominal anchor in the RBI’s recent transition to inflation targeting regime. JEL classification: D84, E31, E52, E37, Keywords: Inflation, Inflation expectations, Survey data, Price index, Monetary policy, Forecasting

  1. Rationality and institutions : an inquiry into the normative implications of rational choice theory

    OpenAIRE

    Engelen, Bart

    2007-01-01

    I aim to analyze in this dissertation what a desirable basic institutional structure looks like from the perspective of rationality. While the main topic is thus normative in nature, I start by clarifying in the first part what the notion of rationality exactly entails. I do so by focusing explicitly on the economic conception of rationality, according to which a rational individual is motivated to serve his self-interest on the basis of cost-benefit calculations. Such a Homo Economicus is ch...

  2. Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

    2007-06-01

    The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

  3. Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical...... ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship...... that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: Internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land...

  4. Rejecting the equilibrium-point hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, G L

    1998-01-01

    The lambda version of the equilibrium-point (EP) hypothesis as developed by Feldman and colleagues has been widely used and cited with insufficient critical understanding. This article offers a small antidote to that lack. First, the hypothesis implicitly, unrealistically assumes identical transformations of lambda into muscle tension for antagonist muscles. Without that assumption, its definitions of command variables R, C, and lambda are incompatible and an EP is not defined exclusively by R nor is it unaffected by C. Second, the model assumes unrealistic and unphysiological parameters for the damping properties of the muscles and reflexes. Finally, the theory lacks rules for two of its three command variables. A theory of movement should offer insight into why we make movements the way we do and why we activate muscles in particular patterns. The EP hypothesis offers no unique ideas that are helpful in addressing either of these questions.

  5. The linear hypothesis and radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, P.B.

    1981-10-01

    An assumption central to most estimations of the carcinogenic potential of low levels of ionising radiation is that the risk always increases in direct proportion to the dose received. This assumption (the linear hypothesis) has been both strongly defended and attacked on several counts. It appears unlikely that conclusive, direct evidence on the validity of the hypothesis will be forthcoming. We review the major indirect arguments used in the debate. All of them are subject to objections that can seriously weaken their case. In the present situation, retention of the linear hypothesis as the basis of extrapolations from high to low dose levels can lead to excessive fears, over-regulation and unnecessarily expensive protection measures. To offset these possibilities, support is given to suggestions urging a cut-off dose, probably some fraction of natural background, below which risks can be deemed acceptable

  6. Rayleigh's hypothesis and the geometrical optics limit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfouhaily, Tanos; Hahn, Thomas

    2006-09-22

    The Rayleigh hypothesis (RH) is often invoked in the theoretical and numerical treatment of rough surface scattering in order to decouple the analytical form of the scattered field. The hypothesis stipulates that the scattered field away from the surface can be extended down onto the rough surface even though it is formed by solely up-going waves. Traditionally this hypothesis is systematically used to derive the Volterra series under the small perturbation method which is equivalent to the low-frequency limit. In this Letter we demonstrate that the RH also carries the high-frequency or the geometrical optics limit, at least to first order. This finding has never been explicitly derived in the literature. Our result comforts the idea that the RH might be an exact solution under some constraints in the general case of random rough surfaces and not only in the case of small-slope deterministic periodic gratings.

  7. Motivational orientation, expectancies, and vulnerability for depression in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Peter; Bissix, Glyn; Sumarah, John; Crouchman, Erin; Bowdrey, Jennifer

    2008-01-01

    In this study, motivational components in the personal styles of sociotropy and autonomy were examined in a sample of 284 women. One hypothesis was that self-validation needs would account for the vulnerability for depressive symptoms in these personal styles. A second hypothesis was that the association of these personal styles with depressive symptoms would be moderated by expectations and perceptions of how likely these validation needs would be met. As predicted, it was found that validation seeking mediated the association of sociotropy and autonomy with depressive symptoms in these women. Another finding was that expectancies moderated the effects of sociotropy and autonomy to predict depressive symptoms. Negative expectancies in women high on these personal styles together further increased the level of depressive symptoms. These findings are compatible with theories emphasizing the importance of situational factors in the onset and maintenance of depression in women.

  8. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  9. Psychometric evaluations of the efficacy expectations and Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scales in African American women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrock, Carolyn J; Gary, Faye

    2014-01-01

    This secondary analysis tested the reliability and validity of the Self-Efficacy for Exercise (SEE) and the Outcome Expectations for Exercise (OEE) scales in 126 community dwelling, middle aged African American women. Social Cognitive Theory postulates self-efficacy is behavior age, gender and culture specific. Therefore, it is important to determine ifself-efficacy scales developed and tested in older Caucasian female adults are reliable and valid in middle aged, minority women. Cronbach's alpha and construct validity using hypothesis testing and confirmatory factor analysis supported the reliability and validity of the SEE and OEE scales in community dwelling, middle aged African American women.

  10. Using Rational-Emotive Therapy to Prevent Classroom Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webber, Jo; Coleman, Maggie

    1988-01-01

    Teachers are encouraged to utilize rational-emotive therapy to prevent and deal with classroom behavior problems. Rational-emotive therapy is defined, the ABC model of rational thinking briefly explained, types of irrational thinking identified, and suggestions for becoming a rational thinker are offered. Classroom examples are given. (DB)

  11. Brain systems underlying encounter expectancy bias in spider phobia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aue, Tatjana; Hoeppli, Marie-Eve; Piguet, Camille; Hofstetter, Christoph; Rieger, Sebastian W; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2015-06-01

    Spider-phobic individuals are characterized by exaggerated expectancies to be faced with spiders (so-called encounter expectancy bias). Whereas phobic responses have been linked to brain systems mediating fear, little is known about how the recruitment of these systems relates to exaggerated expectancies of threat. We used fMRI to examine spider-phobic and control participants while they imagined visiting different locations in a forest after having received background information about the likelihood of encountering different animals (spiders, snakes, and birds) at these locations. Critically, imagined encounter expectancies modulated brain responses differently in phobics as compared with controls. Phobics displayed stronger negative modulation of activity in the lateral prefrontal cortex, precuneus, and visual cortex by encounter expectancies for spiders, relative to snakes or birds (within-participants analysis); these effects were not seen in controls. Between-participants correlation analyses within the phobic group further corroborated the hypothesis that these phobia-specific modulations may underlie irrationality in encounter expectancies (deviations of encounter expectancies from objective background information) in spider phobia; the greater the negative modulation a phobic participant displayed in the lateral prefrontal cortex, precuneus, and visual cortex, the stronger was her bias in encounter expectancies for spiders. Interestingly, irrationality in expectancies reflected in frontal areas relied on right rather than left hemispheric deactivations. Our data accord with the idea that expectancy biases in spider phobia may reflect deficiencies in cognitive control and contextual integration that are mediated by right frontal and parietal areas.

  12. On the generalized gravi-magnetic hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Massa, C.

    1989-01-01

    According to a generalization of the gravi-magnetic hypothesis (GMH) any neutral mass moving in a curvilinear path with respect to an inertial frame creates a magnetic field, dependent on the curvature radius of the path. A simple astrophysical consequence of the generalized GMH is suggested considering the special cases of binary pulsars and binary neutron stars

  13. Remarks about the hypothesis of limiting fragmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, T.T.; Yang, C.N.

    1987-01-01

    Remarks are made about the hypothesis of limiting fragmentation. In particular, the concept of favored and disfavored fragment distribution is introduced. Also, a sum rule is proved leading to a useful quantity called energy-fragmentation fraction. (author). 11 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

  14. Multiple hypothesis clustering in radar plot extraction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizing, A.G.; Theil, A.; Dorp, Ph. van; Ligthart, L.P.

    1995-01-01

    False plots and plots with inaccurate range and Doppler estimates may severely degrade the performance of tracking algorithms in radar systems. This paper describes how a multiple hypothesis clustering technique can be applied to mitigate the problems involved in plot extraction. The measures of

  15. The (not so immortal strand hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Tomasetti

    2015-03-01

    Significance: Utilizing an approach that is fundamentally different from previous efforts to confirm or refute the immortal strand hypothesis, we provide evidence against non-random segregation of DNA during stem cell replication. Our results strongly suggest that parental DNA is passed randomly to stem cell daughters and provides new insight into the mechanism of DNA replication in stem cells.

  16. A Developmental Study of the Infrahumanization Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, John; Bennett, Mark; Murray, Wayne S.

    2008-01-01

    Intergroup attitudes in children were examined based on Leyen's "infrahumanization hypothesis". This suggests that some uniquely human emotions, such as shame and guilt (secondary emotions), are reserved for the in-group, whilst other emotions that are not uniquely human and shared with animals, such as anger and pleasure (primary…

  17. Morbidity and Infant Development: A Hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollitt, Ernesto

    1983-01-01

    Results of a study conducted in 14 villages of Sui Lin Township, Taiwan, suggest the hypothesis that, under conditions of extreme economic impoverishment and among children within populations where energy protein malnutrition is endemic, there is an inverse relationship between incidence of morbidity in infancy and measures of motor and mental…

  18. Diagnostic Hypothesis Generation and Human Judgment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Rick P.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber M.; Harbison, J. Isaiah

    2008-01-01

    Diagnostic hypothesis-generation processes are ubiquitous in human reasoning. For example, clinicians generate disease hypotheses to explain symptoms and help guide treatment, auditors generate hypotheses for identifying sources of accounting errors, and laypeople generate hypotheses to explain patterns of information (i.e., data) in the…

  19. Multi-hypothesis distributed stereo video coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salmistraro, Matteo; Zamarin, Marco; Forchhammer, Søren

    2013-01-01

    for stereo sequences, exploiting an interpolated intra-view SI and two inter-view SIs. The quality of the SI has a major impact on the DVC Rate-Distortion (RD) performance. As the inter-view SIs individually present lower RD performance compared with the intra-view SI, we propose multi-hypothesis decoding...

  20. [Resonance hypothesis of heart rate variability origin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheĭkh-Zade, Iu R; Mukhambetaliev, G Kh; Cherednik, I L

    2009-09-01

    A hypothesis is advanced of the heart rate variability being subjected to beat-to-beat regulation of cardiac cycle duration in order to ensure the resonance interaction between respiratory and own fluctuation of the arterial system volume for minimization of power expenses of cardiorespiratory system. Myogenic, parasympathetic and sympathetic machanisms of heart rate variability are described.

  1. In Defense of Chi's Ontological Incompatibility Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slotta, James D.

    2011-01-01

    This article responds to an article by A. Gupta, D. Hammer, and E. F. Redish (2010) that asserts that M. T. H. Chi's (1992, 2005) hypothesis of an "ontological commitment" in conceptual development is fundamentally flawed. In this article, I argue that Chi's theoretical perspective is still very much intact and that the critique offered by Gupta…

  2. Vacuum counterexamples to the cosmic censorship hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, B.D.

    1981-01-01

    In cylindrically symmetric vacuum spacetimes it is possible to specify nonsingular initial conditions such that timelike singularities will (necessarily) evolve from these conditions. Examples are given; the spacetimes are somewhat analogous to one of the spherically symmetric counterexamples to the cosmic censorship hypothesis

  3. Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

  4. A novel hypothesis splitting method implementation for multi-hypothesis filters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bayramoglu, Enis; Ravn, Ole; Andersen, Nils Axel

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents a multi-hypothesis filter library featuring a novel method for splitting Gaussians into ones with smaller variances. The library is written in C++ for high performance and the source code is open and free1. The multi-hypothesis filters commonly approximate the distribution tran...

  5. The Income Inequality Hypothesis Revisited : Assessing the Hypothesis Using Four Methodological Approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kragten, N.; Rözer, J.

    The income inequality hypothesis states that income inequality has a negative effect on individual’s health, partially because it reduces social trust. This article aims to critically assess the income inequality hypothesis by comparing several analytical strategies, namely OLS regression,

  6. Einstein's Revolutionary Light-Quantum Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuewer, Roger H.

    2005-05-01

    The paper in which Albert Einstein proposed his light-quantum hypothesis was the only one of his great papers of 1905 that he himself termed ``revolutionary.'' Contrary to widespread belief, Einstein did not propose his light-quantum hypothesis ``to explain the photoelectric effect.'' Instead, he based his argument for light quanta on the statistical interpretation of the second law of thermodynamics, with the photoelectric effect being only one of three phenomena that he offered as possible experimental support for it. I will discuss Einstein's light-quantum hypothesis of 1905 and his introduction of the wave-particle duality in 1909 and then turn to the reception of his work on light quanta by his contemporaries. We will examine the reasons that prominent physicists advanced to reject Einstein's light-quantum hypothesis in succeeding years. Those physicists included Robert A. Millikan, even though he provided convincing experimental proof of the validity of Einstein's equation of the photoelectric effect in 1915. The turning point came after Arthur Holly Compton discovered the Compton effect in late 1922, but even then Compton's discovery was contested both on experimental and on theoretical grounds. Niels Bohr, in particular, had never accepted the reality of light quanta and now, in 1924, proposed a theory, the Bohr-Kramers-Slater theory, which assumed that energy and momentum were conserved only statistically in microscopic interactions. Only after that theory was disproved experimentally in 1925 was Einstein's revolutionary light-quantum hypothesis generally accepted by physicists---a full two decades after Einstein had proposed it.

  7. A Dopamine Hypothesis of Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavăl, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) comprises a group of neurodevelopmental disorders characterized by social deficits and stereotyped behaviors. While several theories have emerged, the pathogenesis of ASD remains unknown. Although studies report dopamine signaling abnormalities in autistic patients, a coherent dopamine hypothesis which could link neurobiology to behavior in ASD is currently lacking. In this paper, we present such a hypothesis by proposing that autistic behavior arises from dysfunctions in the midbrain dopaminergic system. We hypothesize that a dysfunction of the mesocorticolimbic circuit leads to social deficits, while a dysfunction of the nigrostriatal circuit leads to stereotyped behaviors. Furthermore, we discuss 2 key predictions of our hypothesis, with emphasis on clinical and therapeutic aspects. First, we argue that dopaminergic dysfunctions in the same circuits should associate with autistic-like behavior in nonautistic subjects. Concerning this, we discuss the case of PANDAS (pediatric autoimmune neuropsychiatric disorder associated with streptococcal infections) which displays behaviors similar to those of ASD, presumed to arise from dopaminergic dysfunctions. Second, we argue that providing dopamine modulators to autistic subjects should lead to a behavioral improvement. Regarding this, we present clinical studies of dopamine antagonists which seem to have improving effects on autistic behavior. Furthermore, we explore the means of testing our hypothesis by using neuroreceptor imaging, which could provide comprehensive evidence for dopamine signaling dysfunctions in autistic subjects. Lastly, we discuss the limitations of our hypothesis. Along these lines, we aim to provide a dopaminergic model of ASD which might lead to a better understanding of the ASD pathogenesis. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Economic Rationality in the Ultimatum Game

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Fiala

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Rigorous application of experimental methodology to the interdisciplinary research of economic decision making is the main purpose of our work. In this paper, we introduce the main decisionmaking theories and outline economic rationality. We explain why we find it useful to discriminate between the “irrational” and “non-rational” components of decision making. We offer an oriented interdisciplinary point of view on economic rationality. In the applied section, we describe the main features of the Ultimatum game and summarize the up-to-date theories explaining the non-rational course of the game. We discuss in detail the reported relations between the nominal value of the stakes and the distribution of the offers and responses. We introduce the blinded, randomized Ultimatum game experiment that we conducted in our laboratory. We stress the importance of anonymity of the study subjects and the difference in salience of a factual reward against a  hypothetical reward. We present the results of our study, showing that a  duly chosen non-monetary reward, directly inconvertible into money, leads to a different offer distribution in the Ultimatum game without the necessity to invest excessive sums of money in the rewards. We compare our results to research published by other authors. According to our theory, the rational, non-rational and irrational components contribute to the decision making in Ultimatum differently depending on the different reward stakes.

  9. Attentional Capture by an Unannounced Color Singleton Depends on Expectation Discrepancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horstmann, Gernot

    2005-01-01

    Eight experiments examined the conditions under which a color singleton that is presented for the 1st time without prior announcement captures attention. The main hypothesis is that an unannounced singleton captures attention to the extent that it deviates from expectations. This hypothesis was tested within a visual-search paradigm in which…

  10. [Rationalization and rationing at the bedside. A normative and empirical status quo analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strech, D

    2014-02-01

    The topic of bedside rationing is increasingly discussed in Germany. Further need for clarification exists for the question how bedside rationing (e.g., in the area of overcare) can be justified despite coexistent inefficiencies. This paper outlines and analyses the relationship of waste avoidance and rationing from an ethical perspective. Empirical findings regarding the status quo of bedside rationing and rationalization are presented. These normative and empirical explorations will then be further specified regarding opportunities for future physician-driven activities to tackle overuse. The self-government partners in Germany should communicate more explicitly within their communities and to the public how and with which benchmarks they aim to reduce inefficient health care (overuse) in an appropriate manner. Physician-driven activities such as the "Choosing Wisely®" initiative in the USA could provide a first step to raise the awareness for overuse among physicians as well as in the public.

  11. Autonomy, rationality and the wish to die.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, D M

    1999-12-01

    Although suicide has traditionally carried a negative sanction in Western societies, this is now being challenged, and while there remains substantial public concern surrounding youth and elder suicide, there is a paradoxical push to relax the prohibition under certain circumstances. Central to the arguments behind this are the principles of respect for autonomy and the importance of rationality. It is argued here that the concepts of rationality and autonomy, while valuable, are not strong enough to substantiate a categorical "right to suicide" and that the concepts of "understandability" and "respect" are more useful and able to provide the foundation for responding to a person expressing a wish to die. Roman suicide, sometimes held as an example of "rational suicide", illustrates the effects of culture, tradition and values on the attitudes to, and the practice of, suicide.

  12. Changing Conspiracy Beliefs through Rationality and Ridiculing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orosz, Gábor; Krekó, Péter; Paskuj, Benedek; Tóth-Király, István; Bőthe, Beáta; Roland-Lévy, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Conspiracy theory (CT) beliefs can be harmful. How is it possible to reduce them effectively? Three reduction strategies were tested in an online experiment using general and well-known CT beliefs on a comprehensive randomly assigned Hungarian sample ( N = 813): exposing rational counter CT arguments, ridiculing those who hold CT beliefs, and empathizing with the targets of CT beliefs. Several relevant individual differences were measured. Rational and ridiculing arguments were effective in reducing CT, whereas empathizing with the targets of CTs had no effect. Individual differences played no role in CT reduction, but the perceived intelligence and competence of the individual who conveyed the CT belief-reduction information contributed to the success of the CT belief reduction. Rational arguments targeting the link between the object of belief and its characteristics appear to be an effective tool in fighting conspiracy theory beliefs.

  13. Expectation-based intelligent control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, Michail

    2006-01-01

    New dynamics paradigms-negative diffusion and terminal attractors-are introduced to control noise and chaos. The applied control forces are composed of expectations governed by the associated Fokker-Planck and Liouville equations. The approach is expanded to a general concept of intelligent control via expectations. Relevance to control in livings is emphasized and illustrated by neural nets with mirror neurons

  14. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  15. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  16. Investigating Miranda waiver decisions: An examination of the rational consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwood, Hayley L; Rogers, Richard; Steadham, Jennifer A; Fiduccia, Chelsea E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of custodial suspects waive their Miranda rights each year without the benefit of legal counsel. Miranda understanding, appreciation, and reasoning abilities are essential to courts' acceptance of Miranda waivers (Grisso, 2003; Rogers & Shuman, 2005). The question posed to forensic psychologists and psychiatrists in the disputed Miranda waivers is whether a particular waiver decision was knowing, intelligent, and voluntary. Despite the remarkable development of Miranda research in recent decades, studies have generally focused on understanding and appreciation of Miranda rights, but with comparatively minimal emphasis on Miranda reasoning and attendant waiver decisions. Research on defendants' decisional capacities constitutes a critical step in further developing theoretical and clinical models for Miranda waiver decisions. The current study evaluated Miranda waiver decisions for 80 pretrial defendants from two Oklahoma jails to study systematically how rational decision abilities affect defendants' personal waiver decisions. In stark contrast to what was expected, many defendants were able to identify a rational decisional process in their own legal cases, yet cast such reasoning aside and chose a completely contradictory Miranda waiver decision. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Demarketing fear: Bring the nuclear issue back to rational discourse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Charles C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper attempts to explore the strategies for breaking the deadlock between the demand for resolving climate crisis and the resistance to deploying nuclear power. Since our present renewable technology is not advanced enough to replace fossil fuel power plants, nuclear power becomes the only available means that can buy us more time to explore better energy sources for coping with the dilemma of global warming and energy security. Therefore, this paper proposes an elaborated fear appeal framework that may shed light on the intervention points for mitigating fear. By examining the influence of fear appeal on the nuclear issue, three strategies for demarketing the nuclear fear of the public are recommended. The paper concludes that only when energy policy makers and the nuclear industry recognize the significance of minimizing fear and begin to work on removing the sources of fear, can we then expect to bring the nuclear issue back to rational discourse. - Highlights: • Both cognition and emotion are critical in decision-making processes. • Dealing with the emotion of fear is essential for resolving the nuclear issue. • Fear should be mitigated to make rational discourses on nuclear power happen. • Fear can be mitigated by manipulating issue familiarity and response feasibility. • Using equivalency and issue framing may alter public perceptions of nuclear power

  18. Risk Judgment by General Dental practitioners: Rational but Uninformed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellervall, Eva; Brehmer, Berndt; Knutsson, Kerstin

    2010-01-01

    Decisions by dentists to administer antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent infectious complications in patients involves professional risk assessment. While recommendations for rational use have been published, several studies have shown that dentists have low adherence to these recommendations. To examine general dental practitioners' (GDPs') assessments of the risk of complications if not administering antibiotic prophylaxis in connection with dental procedures in patients with specific medical conditions. Postal questionnaires in combination with telephone interviews. Risk assessments were made using visual analogue scales (VAS), where zero represented "insignificant risk" and 100 represented a "very significant risk". Response rate: 51%. The mean risk assessments were higher for GDPs who administered antibiotics (mean = 54, SD = 23, range 26-72 mm on the VAS) than those who did not (mean = 14, SD = 12, range 7-31 mm) (P rational but uninformed. They administered antibiotics in a manner that was consistent with their risk assessments. Their risk assessments, however, were overestimated. Inaccurate judgments of risk should not be expected to disappear in the presence of new information. To achieve change, clinicians must be motivated to improve behaviour and an evidence-based implementation strategy is required.

  19. Rationalization with ruled surfaces in architecture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steenstrup, Kasper Hornbak

    This thesis addresses the problems of rationalizing and segmenting large scale 3D models, and how to handle difficult production constraints in this area. The design choices when constructing large scale architecture are influenced by the budget. Therefore I strive to minimize the amount of time...... and material needed for production. This makes advanced free form architecture viable for low cost projects, allowing the architects to realize their designs. By pre-cutting building blocks using hot wire robots, the amount of milling necessary can be reduced drastically. I do this by rationalizing...

  20. Towards a formal logic of design rationalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1997-01-01

    Certain extensions to standard predicate logic are proposed and used as a framework for critical logical study of patterns of inference in design reasoning. It is shown that within this framework a modal logic of design rationalization (suggested by an empirical study reported earlier) can...... be formally defined in terms of quantification over a universe of discourse of ‘relevant points of view’. Five basic principles of the extended predicate logic are listed, on the basis of which the validity of ten modal patterns of inference encountered in design rationalization is tested. The basic idea...

  1. Were Neanderthals Rational? A Stoic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Whiting

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper adopts the philosophical approach of Stoicism as the basis for re-examining the cognitive and ethical relationship between Homo sapiens and Neanderthals. Stoicism sets out a clear criterion for the special moral status of human beings, namely rationality. We explore to what extent Neanderthals were sufficiently rational to be considered “human”. Recent findings in the fields of palaeoanthropology and palaeogenetics show that Neanderthals possessed high-level cognitive abilities and produced viable offspring with anatomically modern humans. Our discussion offers insights for reflecting on the relationship between humans and other forms of natural life and any moral obligations that result.

  2. Rational homotopy theory and differential forms

    CERN Document Server

    Griffiths, Phillip

    2013-01-01

    This completely revised and corrected version of the well-known Florence notes circulated by the authors together with E. Friedlander examines basic topology, emphasizing homotopy theory. Included is a discussion of Postnikov towers and rational homotopy theory. This is then followed by an in-depth look at differential forms and de Tham's theorem on simplicial complexes. In addition, Sullivan's results on computing the rational homotopy type from forms is presented.  New to the Second Edition: *Fully-revised appendices including an expanded discussion of the Hirsch lemma*Presentation of a natu

  3. Rational decisions, random matrices and spin glasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galluccio, Stefano; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

    We consider the problem of rational decision making in the presence of nonlinear constraints. By using tools borrowed from spin glass and random matrix theory, we focus on the portfolio optimisation problem. We show that the number of optimal solutions is generally exponentially large, and each of them is fragile: rationality is in this case of limited use. In addition, this problem is related to spin glasses with Lévy-like (long-ranged) couplings, for which we show that the ground state is not exponentially degenerate.

  4. Rational Homological Stability for Automorphisms of Manifolds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grey, Matthias

    In this thesis we prove rational homological stability for the classifying spaces of the homotopy automorphisms and block di↵eomorphisms of iterated connected sums of products of spheres of a certain connectivity.The results in particular apply to the manifolds       Npg,q  = (#g(Sp x Sq)) - int...... with coefficients in the homology of the universal covering, which is studied using rational homology theory. The result for the block di↵eomorphisms is deduced from the homological stability for the homotopy automorphisms upon using Surgery theory. Themain theorems of this thesis extend the homological stability...

  5. Rationing in the presence of baselines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze a general model of rationing in which agents have baselines, in addition to claims against the (insufficient) endowment of the good to be allocated. Many real-life problems fit this general model (e.g., bankruptcy with prioritized claims, resource allocation in the public health care...... sector, water distribution in drought periods). We introduce (and characterize) a natural class of allocation methods for this model. Any method within the class is associated with a rule in the standard rationing model, and we show that if the latter obeys some focal properties, the former obeys them...

  6. Tests of the Giant Impact Hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. H.

    1998-01-01

    The giant impact hypothesis has gained popularity as a means of explaining a volatile-depleted Moon that still has a chemical affinity to the Earth. As Taylor's Axiom decrees, the best models of lunar origin are testable, but this is difficult with the giant impact model. The energy associated with the impact would be sufficient to totally melt and partially vaporize the Earth. And this means that there should he no geological vestige of Barber times. Accordingly, it is important to devise tests that may be used to evaluate the giant impact hypothesis. Three such tests are discussed here. None of these is supportive of the giant impact model, but neither do they disprove it.

  7. The discovered preference hypothesis - an empirical test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    Using stated preference methods for valuation of non-market goods is known to be vulnerable to a range of biases. Some authors claim that these so-called anomalies in effect render the methods useless for the purpose. However, the Discovered Preference Hypothesis, as put forth by Plott [31], offers...... an nterpretation and explanation of biases which entails that the stated preference methods need not to be completely written off. In this paper we conduct a test for the validity and relevance of the DPH interpretation of biases. In a choice experiment concerning preferences for protection of Danish nature areas...... as respondents evaluate more and more choice sets. This finding supports the Discovered Preference Hypothesis interpretation and explanation of starting point bias....

  8. The Hypothesis-Driven Physical Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garibaldi, Brian T; Olson, Andrew P J

    2018-05-01

    The physical examination remains a vital part of the clinical encounter. However, physical examination skills have declined in recent years, in part because of decreased time at the bedside. Many clinicians question the relevance of physical examinations in the age of technology. A hypothesis-driven approach to teaching and practicing the physical examination emphasizes the performance of maneuvers that can alter the likelihood of disease. Likelihood ratios are diagnostic weights that allow clinicians to estimate the post-probability of disease. This hypothesis-driven approach to the physical examination increases its value and efficiency, while preserving its cultural role in the patient-physician relationship. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. MOLIERE: Automatic Biomedical Hypothesis Generation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sybrandt, Justin; Shtutman, Michael; Safro, Ilya

    2017-08-01

    Hypothesis generation is becoming a crucial time-saving technique which allows biomedical researchers to quickly discover implicit connections between important concepts. Typically, these systems operate on domain-specific fractions of public medical data. MOLIERE, in contrast, utilizes information from over 24.5 million documents. At the heart of our approach lies a multi-modal and multi-relational network of biomedical objects extracted from several heterogeneous datasets from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI). These objects include but are not limited to scientific papers, keywords, genes, proteins, diseases, and diagnoses. We model hypotheses using Latent Dirichlet Allocation applied on abstracts found near shortest paths discovered within this network, and demonstrate the effectiveness of MOLIERE by performing hypothesis generation on historical data. Our network, implementation, and resulting data are all publicly available for the broad scientific community.

  10. The Method of Hypothesis in Plato's Philosophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malihe Aboie Mehrizi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the examination of method of hypothesis in Plato's philosophy. This method, respectively, will be examined in three dialogues of Meno, Phaedon and Republic in which it is explicitly indicated. It will be shown the process of change of Plato’s attitude towards the position and usage of the method of hypothesis in his realm of philosophy. In Meno, considering the geometry, Plato attempts to introduce a method that can be used in the realm of philosophy. But, ultimately in Republic, Plato’s special attention to the method and its importance in the philosophical investigations, leads him to revise it. Here, finally Plato introduces the particular method of philosophy, i.e., the dialectic

  11. Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter

    2017-03-01

    This paper introduces the papers in the "Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology" series. The four articles in the series discuss whether and how the process of testing hypotheses leads to progress in hydrology. Repeated experiments with controlled boundary conditions are rarely feasible in hydrology. Research is therefore not easily aligned with the classical scientific method of testing hypotheses. Hypotheses in hydrology are often enshrined in computer models which are tested against observed data. Testability may be limited due to model complexity and data uncertainty. All four articles suggest that hypothesis testing has contributed to progress in hydrology and is needed in the future. However, the procedure is usually not as systematic as the philosophy of science suggests. A greater emphasis on a creative reasoning process on the basis of clues and explorative analyses is therefore needed.

  12. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.

    2014-12-15

    This paper considers multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing and presents a framework for strategic learning in sequential games with explicit consideration of both temporal and spatial coordination. The associated Bayes risk functions explicitly incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well-defined value functions with respect to (a) the belief states for the case of conditional independent private noisy measurements that are also assumed to be independent identically distributed over time, and (b) the information states for the case of correlated private noisy measurements. A sequential investment game of strategic coordination and delay is also discussed as an application of the proposed strategic learning rules.

  13. Hypothesis testing of scientific Monte Carlo calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallerberger, Markus; Gull, Emanuel

    2017-11-01

    The steadily increasing size of scientific Monte Carlo simulations and the desire for robust, correct, and reproducible results necessitates rigorous testing procedures for scientific simulations in order to detect numerical problems and programming bugs. However, the testing paradigms developed for deterministic algorithms have proven to be ill suited for stochastic algorithms. In this paper we demonstrate explicitly how the technique of statistical hypothesis testing, which is in wide use in other fields of science, can be used to devise automatic and reliable tests for Monte Carlo methods, and we show that these tests are able to detect some of the common problems encountered in stochastic scientific simulations. We argue that hypothesis testing should become part of the standard testing toolkit for scientific simulations.

  14. Reverse hypothesis machine learning a practitioner's perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, Parag

    2017-01-01

    This book introduces a paradigm of reverse hypothesis machines (RHM), focusing on knowledge innovation and machine learning. Knowledge- acquisition -based learning is constrained by large volumes of data and is time consuming. Hence Knowledge innovation based learning is the need of time. Since under-learning results in cognitive inabilities and over-learning compromises freedom, there is need for optimal machine learning. All existing learning techniques rely on mapping input and output and establishing mathematical relationships between them. Though methods change the paradigm remains the same—the forward hypothesis machine paradigm, which tries to minimize uncertainty. The RHM, on the other hand, makes use of uncertainty for creative learning. The approach uses limited data to help identify new and surprising solutions. It focuses on improving learnability, unlike traditional approaches, which focus on accuracy. The book is useful as a reference book for machine learning researchers and professionals as ...

  15. Exploring heterogeneous market hypothesis using realized volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Isa, Zaidi; Mohd Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates the heterogeneous market hypothesis using high frequency data. The cascaded heterogeneous trading activities with different time durations are modelled by the heterogeneous autoregressive framework. The empirical study indicated the presence of long memory behaviour and predictability elements in the financial time series which supported heterogeneous market hypothesis. Besides the common sum-of-square intraday realized volatility, we also advocated two power variation realized volatilities in forecast evaluation and risk measurement in order to overcome the possible abrupt jumps during the credit crisis. Finally, the empirical results are used in determining the market risk using the value-at-risk approach. The findings of this study have implications for informationally market efficiency analysis, portfolio strategies and risk managements.

  16. Unreliable gut feelings can lead to correct decisions: The somatic marker hypothesis in non-linear decision chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel eBedia

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Dual system approaches of decision making examine the interaction between affective/intuitive and deliberative processes underlying value judgment. Decisions are arise from a combination of relatively explicit capabilities for abstract reasoning and relatively implicit evolved domain-general as well as learned domain-specific affective responses. One such approach, the somatic markers hypothesis (SMH, expresses these processes as a system of evolved primary emotions supplemented by associations between affect and experience that accrue over lifetime, or somatic markers (SMs. In this view, SMs are useful only if their local capability to predict the value of an action is above a baseline equal to the predictive capability of the combined rational and primary emotional subsystems. We argue that decision making has often been conceived of as a linear process: the effect of decision sequences is additive, local utility is cumulative, and there is no strong environmental feedback. This widespread assumption has consequences for answering questions regarding the relative weight between the systems and their interaction within a cognitive architecture. We introduce a mathematical formalization of the SMH and study it in situations of dynamic, nonlinear decision chains using a discrete-time stochastic model. We find, contrary to expectations, that decision making events can interact non-additively with the environment in apparently paradoxical ways. We find that primary emotions are represented globally over and above their local weight, showing a tendency for overcaution in situated decision chains. We also show that because they tend to counteract this trend, poorly attuned somatic markers that by themselves do not locally enhance decision making, can still produce an overall positive effect. This result has developmental and evolutionary implications since, by promoting exploratory behavior, SMs are beneficial even at early stages when experiential

  17. Water Taxation and the Double Dividend Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas Kilimani

    2014-01-01

    The double dividend hypothesis contends that environmental taxes have the potential to yield multiple benefits for the economy. However, empirical evidence of the potential impacts of environmental taxation in developing countries is still limited. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature by exploring the impact of a water tax in a developing country context, with Uganda as a case study. Policy makers in Uganda are exploring ways of raising revenue by taxing environmental goods such a...

  18. [Working memory, phonological awareness and spelling hypothesis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gindri, Gigiane; Keske-Soares, Márcia; Mota, Helena Bolli

    2007-01-01

    Working memory, phonological awareness and spelling hypothesis. To verify the relationship between working memory, phonological awareness and spelling hypothesis in pre-school children and first graders. Participants of this study were 90 students, belonging to state schools, who presented typical linguistic development. Forty students were preschoolers, with the average age of six and 50 students were first graders, with the average age of seven. Participants were submitted to an evaluation of the working memory abilities based on the Working Memory Model (Baddeley, 2000), involving phonological loop. Phonological loop was evaluated using the Auditory Sequential Test, subtest 5 of Illinois Test of Psycholinguistic Abilities (ITPA), Brazilian version (Bogossian & Santos, 1977), and the Meaningless Words Memory Test (Kessler, 1997). Phonological awareness abilities were investigated using the Phonological Awareness: Instrument of Sequential Assessment (CONFIAS - Moojen et al., 2003), involving syllabic and phonemic awareness tasks. Writing was characterized according to Ferreiro & Teberosky (1999). Preschoolers presented the ability of repeating sequences of 4.80 digits and 4.30 syllables. Regarding phonological awareness, the performance in the syllabic level was of 19.68 and in the phonemic level was of 8.58. Most of the preschoolers demonstrated to have a pre-syllabic writing hypothesis. First graders repeated, in average, sequences of 5.06 digits and 4.56 syllables. These children presented a phonological awareness of 31.12 in the syllabic level and of 16.18 in the phonemic level, and demonstrated to have an alphabetic writing hypothesis. The performance of working memory, phonological awareness and spelling level are inter-related, as well as being related to chronological age, development and scholarity.

  19. Privacy on Hypothesis Testing in Smart Grids

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Zuxing; Oechtering, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we study the problem of privacy information leakage in a smart grid. The privacy risk is assumed to be caused by an unauthorized binary hypothesis testing of the consumer's behaviour based on the smart meter readings of energy supplies from the energy provider. Another energy supplies are produced by an alternative energy source. A controller equipped with an energy storage device manages the energy inflows to satisfy the energy demand of the consumer. We study the optimal ener...

  20. Box-particle probability hypothesis density filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, M.; Gning, A.; Mihaylova, L.; Cremers, D.; Koch, W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multitarget tracking, called box-particle probability hypothesis density filter (box-PHD filter). The approach is able to track multiple targets and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic, and data association uncertainty. The box-PHD filter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The small number of box-p...

  1. Quantum effects and hypothesis of cosmic censorship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parnovskij, S.L.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that filamentary characteristics with linear mass of less than 10 25 g/cm distort slightly the space-time at distances, exceeding Planck ones. Their formation doesn't change vacuum energy and doesn't lead to strong quantum radiation. Therefore, the problem of their occurrence can be considered within the framework of classical collapse. Quantum effects can be ignored when considering the problem of validity of cosmic censorship hypothesis

  2. A test of the orthographic recoding hypothesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaygen, Daniel E.

    2003-04-01

    The Orthographic Recoding Hypothesis [D. E. Gaygen and P. A. Luce, Percept. Psychophys. 60, 465-483 (1998)] was tested. According to this hypothesis, listeners recognize spoken words heard for the first time by mapping them onto stored representations of the orthographic forms of the words. Listeners have a stable orthographic representation of words, but no phonological representation, when those words have been read frequently but never heard or spoken. Such may be the case for low frequency words such as jargon. Three experiments using visually and auditorily presented nonword stimuli tested this hypothesis. The first two experiments were explicit tests of memory (old-new tests) for words presented visually. In the first experiment, the recognition of auditorily presented nonwords was facilitated when they previously appeared on a visually presented list. The second experiment was similar, but included a concurrent articulation task during a visual word list presentation, thus preventing covert rehearsal of the nonwords. The results were similar to the first experiment. The third experiment was an indirect test of memory (auditory lexical decision task) for visually presented nonwords. Auditorily presented nonwords were identified as nonwords significantly more slowly if they had previously appeared on the visually presented list accompanied by a concurrent articulation task.

  3. Consumer health information seeking as hypothesis testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keselman, Alla; Browne, Allen C; Kaufman, David R

    2008-01-01

    Despite the proliferation of consumer health sites, lay individuals often experience difficulty finding health information online. The present study attempts to understand users' information seeking difficulties by drawing on a hypothesis testing explanatory framework. It also addresses the role of user competencies and their interaction with internet resources. Twenty participants were interviewed about their understanding of a hypothetical scenario about a family member suffering from stable angina and then searched MedlinePlus consumer health information portal for information on the problem presented in the scenario. Participants' understanding of heart disease was analyzed via semantic analysis. Thematic coding was used to describe information seeking trajectories in terms of three key strategies: verification of the primary hypothesis, narrowing search within the general hypothesis area and bottom-up search. Compared to an expert model, participants' understanding of heart disease involved different key concepts, which were also differently grouped and defined. This understanding provided the framework for search-guiding hypotheses and results interpretation. Incorrect or imprecise domain knowledge led individuals to search for information on irrelevant sites, often seeking out data to confirm their incorrect initial hypotheses. Online search skills enhanced search efficiency, but did not eliminate these difficulties. Regardless of their web experience and general search skills, lay individuals may experience difficulty with health information searches. These difficulties may be related to formulating and evaluating hypotheses that are rooted in their domain knowledge. Informatics can provide support at the levels of health information portals, individual websites, and consumer education tools.

  4. Starlings uphold principles of economic rationality for delay and probability of reward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Tiago; Vasconcelos, Marco; Kacelnik, Alex

    2013-04-07

    Rationality principles are the bedrock of normative theories of decision-making in biology and microeconomics, but whereas in microeconomics, consistent choice underlies the notion of utility; in biology, the assumption of consistent selective pressures justifies modelling decision mechanisms as if they were designed to maximize fitness. In either case, violations of consistency contradict expectations and attract theoretical interest. Reported violations of rationality in non-humans include intransitivity (i.e. circular preferences) and lack of independence of irrelevant alternatives (changes in relative preference between options when embedded in different choice sets), but the extent to which these observations truly represent breaches of rationality is debatable. We tested both principles with starlings (Sturnus vulgaris), training subjects either with five options differing in food delay (exp. 1) or with six options differing in reward probability (exp. 2), before letting them choose repeatedly one option out of several binary and trinary sets of options. The starlings conformed to economic rationality on both tests, showing strong stochastic transitivity and no violation of the independence principle. These results endorse the rational choice and optimality approaches used in behavioural ecology, and highlight the need for functional and mechanistic enquiring when apparent violations of such principles are observed.

  5. Neural basis of quasi-rational decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2006-04-01

    Standard economic theories conceive homo economicus as a rational decision maker capable of maximizing utility. In reality, however, people tend to approximate optimal decision-making strategies through a collection of heuristic routines. Some of these routines are driven by emotional processes, and others are adjusted iteratively through experience. In addition, routines specialized for social decision making, such as inference about the mental states of other decision makers, might share their origins and neural mechanisms with the ability to simulate or imagine outcomes expected from alternative actions that an individual can take. A recent surge of collaborations across economics, psychology and neuroscience has provided new insights into how such multiple elements of decision making interact in the brain.

  6. A note on effects of rational bubble on portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chan; Nie, Pu-yan

    2018-02-01

    In general, demand increases in wealth and decreases in price in microeconomics. We thereby propose a completely different perspective. By establishing expected utility function of investors, this article introduces one rational bubble asset and one bubble free asset in portfolios and focuses on the effects of bubble on investment portfolios from wealth and price perspectives. All conclusions are obtained by theoretical analysis with microeconomics theory. We argue that inferior goods and Giffen behavior can occur for the bubble free asset in microeconomic fields. The results can help investors to recognize bubble assets and bubble free assets more scientifically. Both bubble and bubble free assets can be inferior goods under some conditions, so we cannot to say which asset better than the other one absolutely.

  7. Rationally designed synthetic protein hydrogels with predictable mechanical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Junhua; Li, Pengfei; Dong, Chenling; Jiang, Heting; Bin Xue; Gao, Xiang; Qin, Meng; Wang, Wei; Bin Chen; Cao, Yi

    2018-02-12

    Designing synthetic protein hydrogels with tailored mechanical properties similar to naturally occurring tissues is an eternal pursuit in tissue engineering and stem cell and cancer research. However, it remains challenging to correlate the mechanical properties of protein hydrogels with the nanomechanics of individual building blocks. Here we use single-molecule force spectroscopy, protein engineering and theoretical modeling to prove that the mechanical properties of protein hydrogels are predictable based on the mechanical hierarchy of the cross-linkers and the load-bearing modules at the molecular level. These findings provide a framework for rationally designing protein hydrogels with independently tunable elasticity, extensibility, toughness and self-healing. Using this principle, we demonstrate the engineering of self-healable muscle-mimicking hydrogels that can significantly dissipate energy through protein unfolding. We expect that this principle can be generalized for the construction of protein hydrogels with customized mechanical properties for biomedical applications.

  8. Organizational coordination and costly communication with boundedly rational agents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietrichson, Jens; Jochem, Torsten

    How does costly communication affect organizational coordination? This paper develops a model of costly communication based on the weakest-link game and boundedly rational agents. Solving for the stochastically stable states, we find that communication increases the possibilities for efficient...... coordination compared to a setting where agents cannot communicate. But as agents face a trade-off between lowering the strategic uncertainty for the group and the costs of communication, the least efficient state is still the unique stochastically stable one for many parameter values. Simulations show...... that this is not just a long run phenomena, the stochastically stable state is the most frequent outcome also in the short run. Making communication mandatory induces efficient coordination, whereas letting a team leader handle communication increases efficiency when the leader expects others to follow and has enough...

  9. The delphic oracle and the ethylene-intoxication hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, J; Lehoux, D

    2007-01-01

    An interdisciplinary team of scientists--including an archeologist, a geologist, a chemist, and a toxicologist--has argued that ethylene intoxication was the probable cause of the High Priestess of Delphi's divinatory (mantic) trances. The claim that the High Priestess of Delphi entered a mantic state because of ethylene intoxication enjoyed widespread reception in specialist academic journals, science magazines, and newspapers. This article uses a similar interdisciplinary approach to show that this hypothesis is implausible since it is based on problematic scientific and textual evidence, as well as a fallacious argument. The main issue raised by this counterargument is not that a particular scientific hypothesis or conjecture turned out to be false. (This is expected in scientific investigation.) Rather, the main issue is that it was a positivist disposition that originally led readers to associate the evidence presented in such a way that it seemed to point to the conclusion, even when the evidence did not support the conclusion. We conclude by observing that positivist dispositions can lead to the acceptance of claims because they have a scientific form, not because they are grounded in robust evidence and sound argument.

  10. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  11. The Link between Educational Expectations and Effort in the College-for-All Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domina, Thurston; Conley, AnneMarie; Farkas, George

    2011-01-01

    From the Wisconsin status attainment model to rational choice, classical sociological, social-psychological, and economic theories of student educational transitions have assumed that students' expectations are positively related to their ultimate attainment. However, the growth of the college-for-all ethos raises questions about that assumption.…

  12. On the consistency of backward looking expectations. The case of the cobweb

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.

    1998-01-01

    In dynamic models of economic fluctuations backward-looking expectations with systematic forecasting errors are inconsistent with rational behaviour. In non-linear dynamic models exhibiting seemingly unpredictable, chaotic fluctuations, however, simple habitual ‘rule of thumb’ backward-looking

  13. Compounding artefacts with uncertainty, and an amyloid cascade hypothesis that is 'too big to fail'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellani, Rudy J; Smith, Mark A

    2011-06-01

    With each failure of anti-amyloid-β therapy in clinical trials, new trials are initiated with no hint of slowing down. This may be due, in part, to the fact that the amyloid cascade hypothesis has been so modified over time that it is now impossible to confirm or deny. The hypothesis now states, in effect, that invisible molecules target invisible structures. Still relevant, however, are multiple factors that surely cast some doubt but have either been rationalized or overlooked. Among these are the poor correlation between amyloid-β deposits and disease, the substantial differences between familial and sporadic disease, pathological assessment that indicates the secondary nature of lesions/proteins/cascades, the fact that soluble species are poorly reproducible laboratory phenomena, and the irrelevance of synaptic assessment to pathological interpretation. Although not yet dogma, the premature addition of mild cognitive impairment as the implied in vivo homologue to the soluble toxin-synapse interaction is also problematic. In either case, the amyloid cascade hypothesis continues to dominate the Alzheimer's disease literature and grant applications. The more the neuroscience community perseverates along these lines in the face of accumulating outcome data to the contrary, the more one is left to wonder whether the hypothesis is too big to fail. Copyright © 2011 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Approach to Logically-Consistent Hypothesis Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Miranda da Silva

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work addresses an important issue regarding the performance of simultaneous test procedures: the construction of multiple tests that at the same time are optimal from a statistical perspective and that also yield logically-consistent results that are easy to communicate to practitioners of statistical methods. For instance, if hypothesis A implies hypothesis B, is it possible to create optimal testing procedures that reject A whenever they reject B? Unfortunately, several standard testing procedures fail in having such logical consistency. Although this has been deeply investigated under a frequentist perspective, the literature lacks analyses under a Bayesian paradigm. In this work, we contribute to the discussion by investigating three rational relationships under a Bayesian decision-theoretic standpoint: coherence, invertibility and union consonance. We characterize and illustrate through simple examples optimal Bayes tests that fulfill each of these requisites separately. We also explore how far one can go by putting these requirements together. We show that although fairly intuitive tests satisfy both coherence and invertibility, no Bayesian testing scheme meets the desiderata as a whole, strengthening the understanding that logical consistency cannot be combined with statistical optimality in general. Finally, we associate Bayesian hypothesis testing with Bayes point estimation procedures. We prove the performance of logically-consistent hypothesis testing by means of a Bayes point estimator to be optimal only under very restrictive conditions.

  15. Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

    OpenAIRE

    d'Acremont, M.; Bossaerts, Peter

    2008-01-01

    When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely ...

  16. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

    OpenAIRE

    John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller

    1986-01-01

    A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate re...

  17. Milk Production, Physiological Condition and Performance of Etawa Crossbreed Goats Feed by Ration Supplemented with Mangosteen Peel Flour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzarnisa; Rachmadi, D.; Azhar, A.; Fakhrur Riza, R.; Hidayati, A.

    2018-02-01

    Study on the effect of the addition of mangosteen (Garcinia mangostana L.) peel flour on physiological condition and performance of Etawa crossbreed goats was done. This was to grant the use of mangosteen peel flour that rich of antioxidants and has variety good benefits for health as feed additive for cattle. This study used a Complete Randomized Block Design consisting of 4 treatment groups and 4 replications each. Subjects were 16 female Etawa crossbreed goats randomly designed into treatments group based on lactation periods. Subjects were feed with traditional rations (control, A), traditional rations and 2.5% mangosteen peel flour (B), tradition rations and 5% mangosteen peel flour (C), and traditional rations and 7,5 % mangosteen peel flour (D). Data on performance (milk production) and physiological condition (respiratory frequency, rectal temperature, and heart rate) obtained were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results showed that the addition of mangosteen peel flour as food additive in the rations resulted in variations in the milk production, physiological condition (rectal temperature, heart rate and respiration frequency) and performances (daily weigh gain, food consumption, ration conversion and breast volume) of Etawa crossbreed goats, but significant effect was only observed in the respiration frequency. The addition of 2.5% mangosteen peel flour in the ration caused the best, expected effects on milk production physiological condition and performance of Etawa crossbreed goats.

  18. Role of rational surfaces on fluctuations and transport in the plasma edge of the TJ-II stellarator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedrosa, M.A.; Hidalgo, C.; Lopez-Fraguas, A.

    2000-01-01

    It has been shown that transport barriers in toroidal magnetically confined plasmas tend to be linked to regions of unique magnetic topology such as the location of a minimum in the safety factor, rational surfaces or the boundary between closed and open flux surfaces. In the absence of E x B sheared flows, fluctuations are expected to show maximum amplitude near rational surfaces, and plasma confinement might tend to deteriorate. On the other hand, if the generation of E x B sheared flows were linked to low order rational surfaces, these would be beneficial to confinement. Experimental evidence of E x B sheared flows linked to rational surfaces has been obtained in the plasma edge region of the TJ-II stellarator. (author)

  19. Models of bounded rationality under certainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose This chapter reviews models of decision-making and choice under conditions of certainty. It allows readers to position the contribution of the other chapters in this book in the historical development of the topic area. Theory Bounded rationality is defined in terms of a strategy to simplify

  20. Suicide: rationality and responsibility for life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Angela Onkay

    2014-03-01

    Death by suicide is widely held as an undesirable outcome. Most Western countries place emphasis on patient autonomy, a concept of controversy in relation to suicide. This paper explores the tensions between patients' rights and many societies' overarching desire to prevent suicide, while clarifying the relations between mental disorders, mental capacity, and rational suicide. A literature search was conducted using search terms of suicide and ethics in the PubMed and LexisNexis Academic databases. Article titles and abstracts were reviewed and deemed relevant if the paper addressed topics of rational suicide, patient autonomy or rights, or responsibility for life. Further articles were found from reference lists and by suggestion from preliminary reviewers of this paper. Suicidal behaviour in a person cannot be reliably predicted, yet various associations and organizations have developed standards of care for managing patients exhibiting suicidal behaviour. The responsibility for preventing suicide tends to be placed on the treating clinician. In cases where a person is capable of making treatment decisions--uninfluenced by any mental disorder--there is growing interest in the concept of rational suicide. There is much debate about whether suicide can ever be rational. Designating suicide as an undesirable event that should never occur raises the debate of who is responsible for one's life and runs the risk of erroneously attributing blame for suicide. While upholding patient rights of autonomy in psychiatric care is laudable, cases of suicidality warrant a delicate consideration of clinical judgment, duty of care, and legal obligations.

  1. Rationality, Motivation, Effectiveness: Bureaucracy's Triple Legacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, William

    1984-01-01

    The United States has inherited an ideology concerning politics, culture, and the state that values the democratic distribution by the schools of rationality and of social motivation. Unfortunately, the bureaucratic organization of schools discourages this distribution, and the incentives for changing either the organization or the distribution…

  2. Rational approximations and quantum algorithms with postselection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahadev, U.; de Wolf, R.

    2015-01-01

    We study the close connection between rational functions that approximate a given Boolean function, and quantum algorithms that compute the same function using post-selection. We show that the minimal degree of the former equals (up to a factor of 2) the minimal query complexity of the latter. We

  3. [Popper's critical rationalism and the biomedical sciences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlícek, J

    1993-11-08

    Popper's rationalism makes an important contribution of the 20th century philosophy to the methodology of natural sciences. Through its criterion of falsification, it enabled the scientists to take a critical but constructive view on hypotheses, conjectures and theories. This attitude found its application also in medicine.

  4. Parity, Incomparability and Rationally Justified Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, Martijn

    2009-01-01

    This article discusses the possibility of a rationally justified choice between two options neither of which is better than the other while they are not equally good either (‘3NT’). Joseph Raz regards such options as incomparable and argues that reason cannot guide the choice between them. Ruth

  5. Heterogeneous Parking Market Subject to Parking Rationing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asadi Bagloee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Different types of drivers and parking spaces delineate a heterogeneous parking market for which the literature has yet to provide a model applicable to the real world. The main obstacle is computational complexities of considering various parking restrictions along with traffic congestion on the road network. In this study, the heterogeneity aspects are considered within a Logit parking choice model. A mathematical programming problem was introduced to explicitly consider parking capacities and parking rationing constraints. The parking rationing is defined as any arrangement to reserve parking space for some specific demand such as parking permit, private parking, VIP parking, and different parking durations. Introduction of parking rationing in the presence of other constraints is a unique factor in this study which makes the model more realistic. The algorithm was tested on a central business district case study. The results prove that the algorithm is able to converge rapidly. Among the algorithm’s output are shadow prices of the parking capacity and parking rationing constraints. The shadow prices contain important information which is key to addressing a variety of parking issues, such as the location of parking shortages, identification of fair parking charges, viability of parking permits, and the size of reserved parking.

  6. Rationally inattentive seller: sales and discrete pricing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 83, č. 3 (2016), s. 1125-1155 ISSN 0034-6527 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP402/11/P236 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : rational inattention * nominal rigidity * sticky prices Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.030, year: 2016

  7. Viagra: : A success story for rationing?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, R.; Sturm, H.

    2002-01-01

    The 1998 launch of Viagra prompted widespread fears about the budgetary consequences for insurers and governments, all the more so since Viagra was only the first of a new wave of so-called lifestyle drugs. The fears have turned out to be greatly exaggerated. This paper analyzes the rationing

  8. Confucianism and Critical Rationalism: Friends or Foes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Chi-Ming

    2017-01-01

    According to Karl Popper's critical rationalism, criticism is the only way we have of systematically detecting and learning from our mistakes so as to get nearer to the truth. Meanwhile, it is arguable that the emphasis of Confucianism on creating a hierarchical and harmonious society can easily lead to submission rather than opposition, producing…

  9. Rational Rhymes for Addressing Common Childhood Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Jeffrey M.

    2011-01-01

    Music-based interventions are valuable tools counselors can use when working with children. Specific types of music-based interventions, such as songs or rhymes, can be especially pertinent in addressing the thoughts, feelings, and behaviors of children. Rational-emotive behavior therapy (REBT) provides a therapeutic framework that encourages…

  10. Rationalization of water consumption in paper industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žarković Darja

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject of this paper was to consider the possibilities of economical paper production with rationalization of water consumption. In accordance with the principles of viable development. The pulp & paper industry has had to face global market needs and strict regulation concerning the environment. The basic motive was to provide consistent and high product quality, which is competitive on the market. The pulp & paper industry is one of the largest consumers and pollutants of natural resources. In that light, the rationalization of raw material, water, energy and chemicals consumption with minimization of environmental impact is essential. The European directive on environmental protection obliges producers of pulp & paper to decrease the volume of wastewater and to increase the efficiency treatment. Pulp and paper industry in Serbia and Montenegro will also be faced with the demands for environmental protection. Numerous examples of water consumption rationalization and improvement of water quality in the pulp & paper industry could be found in different literature sources. It is necessary to increase water system closure and implement up-to-date treatment methods. The possibilities for water consumption rationalization, in a real system the paperboard mill UMKA, were examined.

  11. Rigid pricing and rationally inattentive consumer

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 2 (2010), s. 1-40 ISSN 1211-3298 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : rational inattention * nominal rigidity Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp409.pdf

  12. The Assessment of Rational Thinking: IQ ? RQ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.

    2014-01-01

    In this article the authors argue that distinguishing between rationality and intelligence helps explain how people can be, at the same time, intelligent and irrational (Stanovich, 2009). As such, researchers need to study separately the individual differences in cognitive skills that underlie intelligence and the individual differences in…

  13. Rational and Mechanistic Perspectives on Reinforcement Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chater, Nick

    2009-01-01

    This special issue describes important recent developments in applying reinforcement learning models to capture neural and cognitive function. But reinforcement learning, as a theoretical framework, can apply at two very different levels of description: "mechanistic" and "rational." Reinforcement learning is often viewed in mechanistic terms--as…

  14. Effecting attitudinal change towards rational drug use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, T; Natu, M V

    1995-01-01

    Attitudes of 40 interns towards rational drug use (RDU) were assessed, using a standardized Likert type scale. The assessment was repeated after 4 months to evaluate the effect of usual working conditions of the hospital. After this period, the attitudes had slided towards negative side (p attitudes of test group returned towards positive side (p attitudes.

  15. Rationalizing Cooperation: Moroccan Craft, Politics, and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, Claire

    2018-01-01

    State attempts to rationalize Moroccan craft education reflect the ambivalent status of traditional knowledge in a modern economy. Female artisans, recently organized as a cooperative, navigate this ambivalence in a weaving "theory" class and in their "occupation" of the cooperative structure itself. During performances of…

  16. Feeling food: The rationality of perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beekman, V.

    2006-01-01

    Regulatory bodies tend to treat people¿s emotional responses towards foods as a nuisance for rational opinion-formation and decision-making. This position is thought to be supported by such evidence as: (1) people showing negative emotional responses to the idea of eating meat products from

  17. CREDIT RATIONING AND SME DEVELOPMENT IN BOTSWANA ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    None

    have the negative effect of stifling the growth of potential firms, thereby .... credit market may explain the credit rationing behaviour of banks to ... derive policy implications to enhance access to bank credit by SMEs. 4. ..... The main challenges to SMEs identified by the study were non-payment of outstanding ... This decision is.

  18. The quantum symmetry of rational field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, J.

    1993-12-01

    The quantum symmetry of a rational quantum field theory is a finite-dimensional multi-matrix algebra. Its representation category, which determines the fusion rules and braid group representations of superselection sectors, is a braided monoidal C*-category. Various properties of such algebraic structures are described, and some ideas concerning the classification programme are outlined. (orig.)

  19. More Than the Ten Rational Thinking Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torrance, E. Paul

    1980-01-01

    The 10 rational processes (which include recalling and imagining, classifying and generalizing, comparing and evaluating, analyzing and synthesizing, and deducting and inferring) are examined from a cultural and historical perspective, with particular emphasis on the suprarational aspects of creative thinking. A three stage model for facilitating…

  20. On A System of Rational Difference Equation

    OpenAIRE

    Din Qamar

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we study local asymptotic stability, global character and periodic nature of solutions of the system of rational difference equations given by xn+1= , yn=, n=0, 1,…, where the parameters a; b; c; d; e; f ∊ (0; ∞), and with initial conditions x0; y0 ∊ (0; ∞). Some numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.