WorldWideScience

Sample records for rates predict field

  1. Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabris, Christopher F; Laibson, David; Morris, Carrie L; Schuldt, Jonathon P; Taubinsky, Dmitry

    2008-12-01

    We estimate discount rates of 555 subjects using a laboratory task and find that these individual discount rates predict inter-individual variation in field behaviors (e.g., exercise, BMI, smoking). The correlation between the discount rate and each field behavior is small: none exceeds 0.28 and many are near 0. However, the discount rate has at least as much predictive power as any variable in our dataset (e.g., sex, age, education). The correlation between the discount rate and field behavior rises when field behaviors are aggregated: these correlations range from 0.09-0.38. We present a model that explains why specific intertemporal choice behaviors are only weakly correlated with discount rates, even though discount rates robustly predict aggregates of intertemporal decisions.

  2. Neonatal heart rate prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Rahman, Yumna; Jeremic, Aleksander; Tan, Kenneth

    2009-01-01

    Technological advances have caused a decrease in the number of infant deaths. Pre-term infants now have a substantially increased chance of survival. One of the mechanisms that is vital to saving the lives of these infants is continuous monitoring and early diagnosis. With continuous monitoring huge amounts of data are collected with so much information embedded in them. By using statistical analysis this information can be extracted and used to aid diagnosis and to understand development. In this study we have a large dataset containing over 180 pre-term infants whose heart rates were recorded over the length of their stay in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). We test two types of models, empirical bayesian and autoregressive moving average. We then attempt to predict future values. The autoregressive moving average model showed better results but required more computation.

  3. Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

    2015-01-01

    The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

  4. Rating prediction using textual reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    NithyaKalyani, A.; Ushasukhanya, S.; Nagamalleswari, TYJ; Girija, S.

    2018-04-01

    Information today is present in the form of opinions. Two & a half quintillion bytes are exchanged today in Internet everyday and a large amount consists of people’s speculation and reflection over an issue. It is the need of the hour to be able to mine this information that is presented to us. Sentimental analysis refers to mining of this raw information to make sense. The discipline of opinion mining has seen a lot of encouragement in the past few years augmented by involvement of social media like Instagram, Facebook, and twitter. The hidden message in this web of information is useful in several fields such as marketing, political polls, product review, forecast market movement, Identifying detractor and promoter. In this endeavor, we introduced sentiment rating system for a particular text or paragraph to determine the opinions polarity. Firstly we resolve the searching problem, tokenization, classification, and reliable content identification. Secondly we extract probability for given text or paragraph for both positive & negative sentiment value using naive bayes classifier. At last we use sentiment dictionary (SD), sentiment degree dictionary (SDD) and negation dictionary (ND) for more accuracy. Later we blend all above mentioned factor into given formula to find the rating for the review.

  5. Can Exchange Rates Be Predicted?

    OpenAIRE

    Siriwutiset, Trin

    2007-01-01

    Foreign exchange rates produce significant impacts on both the macroeconomic and microeconomic scale. Countries� government and multinational companies have been seeking ways to stabilize the exchange rates for a few decades. However, there is no perfect consensus on methods to control and stabilize the exchange rates. In fact, there are several occasions in history where turbulence movements caused crisis in the economies. There are several factors that are identified by economis...

  6. Predicting Performance Ratings Using Motivational Antecedents

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zazania, Michelle

    1998-01-01

    This research examined the role of motivation in predicting peer and trainer ratings of student performance and contrasted the relative importance of various antecedents for peer and trainer ratings...

  7. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  8. Prediction of waste glass melt rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, L.

    1987-01-01

    Under contract to the Department of Energy, the Du Pont Company has begun construction of a Defense Waste Processing Facility to immobilize radioactive wastes now stored as liquids at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Plant. The immobilization process solidifies waste sludge by vitrification into a leach-resistant borosilicate glass. Development of this process has been the responsibility of the Savannah River Laboratory. As part of the development, a simple model was developed to predict the melt rates for the waste glass melter. This model is based on an energy balance for the cold cap and gives very good agreement with melt rate data obtained from experimental campaigns in smaller scale waste glass melters

  9. Predicting Agency Rating Migrations with Spread Implied Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Jianming Kou; Dr Simone Varotto

    2005-01-01

    Investors traditionally rely on credit ratings to price debt instruments. However, rating agencies are known to be prudent in their approach to rating revisions, which results in delayed ratings adjustments to mutating credit conditions. For a large set of eurobonds we derive credit spread implied ratings and compare them with the ratings issued by rating agencies. Our results indicate that spread implied ratings often anticipate future movement of agency ratings and hence could help track cr...

  10. Effect of reheating on predictions following multiple-field inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotinli, Selim C.; Frazer, Jonathan; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Meyers, Joel; Price, Layne C.; Tarrant, Ewan R. M.

    2018-01-01

    We study the sensitivity of cosmological observables to the reheating phase following inflation driven by many scalar fields. We describe a method which allows semianalytic treatment of the impact of perturbative reheating on cosmological perturbations using the sudden decay approximation. Focusing on N -quadratic inflation, we show how the scalar spectral index and tensor-to-scalar ratio are affected by the rates at which the scalar fields decay into radiation. We find that for certain choices of decay rates, reheating following multiple-field inflation can have a significant impact on the prediction of cosmological observables.

  11. Statistical predictions from anarchic field theory landscapes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balasubramanian, Vijay; Boer, Jan de; Naqvi, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Consistent coupling of effective field theories with a quantum theory of gravity appears to require bounds on the rank of the gauge group and the amount of matter. We consider landscapes of field theories subject to such to boundedness constraints. We argue that appropriately 'coarse-grained' aspects of the randomly chosen field theory in such landscapes, such as the fraction of gauge groups with ranks in a given range, can be statistically predictable. To illustrate our point we show how the uniform measures on simple classes of N=1 quiver gauge theories localize in the vicinity of theories with certain typical structures. Generically, this approach would predict a high energy theory with very many gauge factors, with the high rank factors largely decoupled from the low rank factors if we require asymptotic freedom for the latter.

  12. Learning receptive fields using predictive feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jehee, Janneke F M; Rothkopf, Constantin; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ballard, Dana H

    2006-01-01

    Previously, it was suggested that feedback connections from higher- to lower-level areas carry predictions of lower-level neural activities, whereas feedforward connections carry the residual error between the predictions and the actual lower-level activities [Rao, R.P.N., Ballard, D.H., 1999. Nature Neuroscience 2, 79-87.]. A computational model implementing the hypothesis learned simple cell receptive fields when exposed to natural images. Here, we use predictive feedback to explain tuning properties in medial superior temporal area (MST). We implement the hypothesis using a new, biologically plausible, algorithm based on matching pursuit, which retains all the features of the previous implementation, including its ability to efficiently encode input. When presented with natural images, the model developed receptive field properties as found in primary visual cortex. In addition, when exposed to visual motion input resulting from movements through space, the model learned receptive field properties resembling those in MST. These results corroborate the idea that predictive feedback is a general principle used by the visual system to efficiently encode natural input.

  13. CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, James H., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and

  14. Reliability tasks from prediction to field use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guyot, Christian.

    1975-01-01

    This tutorial paper is part of a series intended to sensitive on reliability prolems. Reliability probabilistic concept, is an important parameter of availability. Reliability prediction is an estimation process for evaluating design progress. It is only by the application of a reliability program that reliability objectives can be attained through the different stages of work: conception, fabrication, field use. The user is mainly interested in operational reliability. Indication are given on the support and the treatment of data in the case of electronic equipment at C.E.A. Reliability engineering requires a special state of mind which must be formed and developed in a company in the same way as it may be done for example for safety [fr

  15. Field Response Prediction: Framing the problem.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabrera-Palmer, Belkis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Predicting the performance of radiation detection systems at field sites based on measured performance acquired under controlled conditions at test locations, e.g., the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), remains an unsolved and standing issue within DNDO’s testing methodology. Detector performance can be defined in terms of the system’s ability to detect and/or identify a given source or set of sources, and depends on the signal generated by the detector for the given measurement configuration (i.e., source strength, distance, time, surrounding materials, etc.) and on the quality of the detection algorithm. Detector performance is usually evaluated in the performance and operational testing phases, where the measurement configurations are selected to represent radiation source and background configurations of interest to security applications.

  16. Prediction of Oil Critical Rate in Vertical Wells using Meyer-Gardner ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF HORSFALL

    2018-04-14

    Apr 14, 2018 ... Department of Petroleum and Gas Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State, ..... impermeable barrier, extending radially from the ... useful aid to field engineers for predicting critical rate.

  17. Twitter Predicts Citation Rates of Ecological Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peoples, Brandon K; Midway, Stephen R; Sackett, Dana; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012-2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the 'highest-impact' journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

  18. Twitter predicts citation rates of ecological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peoples, Brandon K.; Midway, Stephen R.; Sackett, Dana K.; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012–2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the ‘highest-impact’ journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

  19. Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bi Yan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (β = 1.244, p = 0.000 alone and combination (SPR, β = 1.326, p  Conclusion SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.

  20. PREDICTING EVAPORATION RATES AND TIMES FOR SPILLS OF CHEMICAL MIXTURES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spreadsheet and short-cut methods have been developed for predicting evaporation rates and evaporation times for spills (and constrained baths) of chemical mixtures. Steady-state and time-varying predictions of evaporation rates can be made for six-component mixtures, includ...

  1. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  2. Evolutionary rate variation and RNA secondary structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, B.; Andersen, E.S.; Damgaard, C.

    2004-01-01

    Predicting RNA secondary structure using evolutionary history can be carried out by using an alignment of related RNA sequences with conserved structure. Accurately determining evolutionary substitution rates for base pairs and single stranded nucleotides is a concern for methods based on this type...... by applying rates derived from tRNA and rRNA to the prediction of the much more rapidly evolving 5'-region of HIV-1. We find that the HIV-1 prediction is in agreement with experimental data, even though the relative evolutionary rate between A and G is significantly increased, both in stem and loop regions...

  3. PREDICTIVE POTENTIAL FIELD-BASED COLLISION AVOIDANCE FOR MULTICOPTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nieuwenhuisen

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Reliable obstacle avoidance is a key to navigating with UAVs in the close vicinity of static and dynamic obstacles. Wheel-based mobile robots are often equipped with 2D or 3D laser range finders that cover the 2D workspace sufficiently accurate and at a high rate. Micro UAV platforms operate in a 3D environment, but the restricted payload prohibits the use of fast state-of-the-art 3D sensors. Thus, perception of small obstacles is often only possible in the vicinity of the UAV and a fast collision avoidance system is necessary. We propose a reactive collision avoidance system based on artificial potential fields, that takes the special dynamics of UAVs into account by predicting the influence of obstacles on the estimated trajectory in the near future using a learned motion model. Experimental evaluation shows that the prediction leads to smoother trajectories and allows to navigate collision-free through passageways.

  4. Predicting rates of inbreeding in populations undergoing selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woolliams, J.A.; Bijma, P.

    2000-01-01

    Tractable forms of predicting rates of inbreeding (F) in selected populations with general indices, nonrandom mating, and overlapping generations were developed, with the principal results assuming a period of equilibrium in the selection process. An existing theorem concerning the relationship

  5. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  6. Intelligent Online Marketing : Predicting Conversion Rate Of New Keywords

    OpenAIRE

    Engström, Tommy

    2013-01-01

    This thesis looks at the problem of predicting conversion rate of keywords in Google Adwords where little or no data for the keyword is available. Several methods are investigated and tested on data belonging to three different real world clients. The methods try to predict the conversion rate only given the keyword text. All methods are compared, using two different evaluation methods, with results showing good potential. Finally further improvements are suggested that could have a big impac...

  7. Efficient field testing for load rating railroad bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Jeffrey L.; Brett C., Commander

    1995-06-01

    As the condition of our infrastructure continues to deteriorate, and the loads carried by our bridges continue to increase, an ever growing number of railroad and highway bridges require load limits. With safety and transportation costs at both ends of the spectrum. the need for accurate load rating is paramount. This paper describes a method that has been developed for efficient load testing and evaluation of short- and medium-span bridges. Through the use of a specially-designed structural testing system and efficient load test procedures, a typical bridge can be instrumented and tested at 64 points in less than one working day and with minimum impact on rail traffic. Various techniques are available to evaluate structural properties and obtain a realistic model. With field data, a simple finite element model is 'calibrated' and its accuracy is verified. Appropriate design and rating loads are applied to the resulting model and stress predictions are made. This technique has been performed on numerous structures to address specific problems and to provide accurate load ratings. The merits and limitations of this approach are discussed in the context of actual examples of both rail and highway bridges that were tested and evaluated.

  8. Prediction of gamma exposure rates in large nuclear craters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tami, Thomas M; Day, Walter C [U.S. Army Engineer Nuclear Cratering Group, Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1970-05-15

    In many civil engineering applications of nuclear explosives there is the need to reenter the crater and lip area as soon as possible after the detonation to carry out conventional construction activities. These construction activities, however, must be delayed until the gamma dose rate, or exposure rate, in and around the crater decays to acceptable levels. To estimate the time of reentry for post-detonation construction activities, the exposure rate in the crater and lip areas must be predicted as a function of time after detonation. An accurate prediction permits a project planner to effectively schedule post-detonation activities.

  9. Field Office Telephone Service - Monthly National Answer Rate and Busy Rate

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — This dataset provides information at the national level by month for federal fiscal year 2013 onward for answer rate and busy rate for calls to our field offices....

  10. Predicting local field potentials with recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Louis; Harer, Jacob; Rangamani, Akshay; Moran, James; Parks, Philip D; Widge, Alik; Eskandar, Emad; Dougherty, Darin; Chin, Sang Peter

    2016-08-01

    We present a Recurrent Neural Network using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) that is capable of modeling and predicting Local Field Potentials. We train and test the network on real data recorded from epilepsy patients. We construct networks that predict multi-channel LFPs for 1, 10, and 100 milliseconds forward in time. Our results show that prediction using LSTM outperforms regression when predicting 10 and 100 millisecond forward in time.

  11. Predicting High Frequency Exchange Rates using Machine Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Palikuca, Aleksandar; Seidl,, Timo

    2016-01-01

    This thesis applies a committee of Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines on high-dimensional, high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data in an effort to predict directional market movements on up to a 60 second prediction horizon. The study shows that combining multiple classifiers into a committee produces improved precision relative to the best individual committee members and outperforms previously reported results. A trading simulation implementing the committee classifier...

  12. Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

    2014-01-01

    Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  13. Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangkun Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL and genetic algorithm (GA. MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

  14. Predicting bioremediation of hydrocarbons: Laboratory to field scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diplock, E.E.; Mardlin, D.P.; Killham, K.S.; Paton, G.I.

    2009-01-01

    There are strong drivers to increasingly adopt bioremediation as an effective technique for risk reduction of hydrocarbon impacted soils. Researchers often rely solely on chemical data to assess bioremediation efficiently, without making use of the numerous biological techniques for assessing microbial performance. Where used, laboratory experiments must be effectively extrapolated to the field scale. The aim of this research was to test laboratory derived data and move to the field scale. In this research, the remediation of over thirty hydrocarbon sites was studied in the laboratory using a range of analytical techniques. At elevated concentrations, the rate of degradation was best described by respiration and the total hydrocarbon concentration in soil. The number of bacterial degraders and heterotrophs as well as quantification of the bioavailable fraction allowed an estimation of how bioremediation would progress. The response of microbial biosensors proved a useful predictor of bioremediation in the absence of other microbial data. Field-scale trials on average took three times as long to reach the same endpoint as the laboratory trial. It is essential that practitioners justify the nature and frequency of sampling when managing remediation projects and estimations can be made using laboratory derived data. The value of bioremediation will be realised when those that practice the technology can offer transparent lines of evidence to explain their decisions. - Detailed biological, chemical and physical characterisation reduces uncertainty in predicting bioremediation.

  15. Depletion of heterogeneous source species pools predicts future invasion rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Mark Kimberley; Jacqueline Beggs

    2017-01-01

    Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species...

  16. Compact Web browsing profiles for click-through rate prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Bjarne Ørum; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2014-01-01

    In real time advertising we are interested in finding features that improve click-through rate prediction. One source of available information is the bipartite graph of websites previously engaged by identifiable users. In this work, we investigate three different decompositions of such a graph...

  17. Cell membrane temperature rate sensitivity predicted from the Nernst equation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, F S

    1984-01-01

    A hyperpolarized current is predicted from the Nernst equation for conditions of positive temperature derivatives with respect to time. This ion current, coupled with changes in membrane channel conductivities, is expected to contribute to a transient potential shift across the cell membrane for silent cells and to a change in firing rate for pacemaker cells.

  18. What Predicts Method Effects in Child Behavior Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Justin A.; Keith, Timothy Z.; Jensen, Megan

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to determine whether child, parent, and teacher characteristics such as sex, socioeconomic status (SES), parental depressive symptoms, the number of years of teaching experience, number of children in the classroom, and teachers' disciplinary self-efficacy predict deviations from maternal ratings in a…

  19. Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

    2015-10-01

    Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

  20. Functional leaf attributes predict litter decomposition rate in herbaceous plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cornelissen, J. H C; Thompson, K.

    1997-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that functional attributes of living leaves provide a basis for predicting the decomposition rate of leaf litter. The data were obtained from standardized screening tests on 38 British herbaceous species. Graminoid monocots had physically tougher leaves with higher silicon

  1. Prediction of maximal heart rate: comparison using a novel and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prediction of maximal heart rate: comparison using a novel and conventional equation. LR Keytel, E Mukwevho, MA Will, M Lambert. Abstract. No Abstract. African Journal for Physical, Health Education, Recreation and Dance Vol. 11(3) 2005: 269-277. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL ...

  2. Predictive Value of Respiratory Rate Thresholds in Pneumonia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A study was carried out to determine the predictive value of respiratory rate in the clinical diagnosis of pneumonia in 101 children with respiratory symptoms of <28 days duration. Clinical, demographic and anthropometric variables were obtained at presentation while confirmation of the diagnosis was by a chest x-ray in ...

  3. Activity, exposure rate and spectrum prediction with Java programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahin, D.; Uenlue, K.

    2009-01-01

    In order to envision the radiation exposure during Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) experiments, a software called Activity Predictor is developed using Java TM programming language. The Activity Predictor calculates activities, exposure rates and gamma spectra of activated samples for NAA experiments performed at Radiation Science and Engineering Center (RSEC), Penn State Breazeale Reactor (PSBR). The calculation procedure for predictions involves both analytical and Monte Carlo methods. The Activity Predictor software is validated with a series of activation experiments. It has been found that Activity Predictor software calculates the activities and exposure rates precisely. The software also predicts gamma spectrum for each measurement. The predicted spectra agreed partially with measured spectra. The error in net photo peak areas varied from 4.8 to 51.29%, which is considered to be due to simplistic modeling, statistical fluctuations and unknown contaminants in the samples. (author)

  4. Precise predictions for inclusive semi-tauonic B decay rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mannel, Thomas; Shahriaran, Farnoush [University of Siegen (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    We get Standard Model prediction for the decay rate of B → X{sub c}τν transitions. The triple differential decay rate has been derived including the nonperturbative corrections of order Λ{sub QCD}{sup 3}/m{sub b}{sup 3} and the leading O(α{sub s}) corrections. The total decay width is obtained by numerical integration with an estimated uncertainty of roughly 5%. We compare our result to the sum of the rates of the exclusive B → Dτν, B → D*τν and B → D**τν decays.

  5. Predicting basal metabolic rates in Malaysian adult elite athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Jyh Eiin; Poh, Bee Koon; Nik Shanita, Safii; Izham, Mohd Mohamad; Chan, Kai Quin; Tai, Meng De; Ng, Wei Wei; Ismail, Mohd Noor

    2012-11-01

    This study aimed to measure the basal metabolic rate (BMR) of elite athletes and develop a gender specific predictive equation to estimate their energy requirements. 92 men and 33 women (aged 18-31 years) from 15 sports, who had been training six hours daily for at least one year, were included in the study. Body composition was measured using the bioimpedance technique, and BMR by indirect calorimetry. The differences between measured and estimated BMR using various predictive equations were calculated. The novel equation derived from stepwise multiple regression was evaluated using Bland and Altman analysis. The predictive equations of Cunningham and the Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization/United Nations University either over- or underestimated the measured BMR by up to ± 6%, while the equations of Ismail et al, developed from the local non-athletic population, underestimated the measured BMR by 14%. The novel predictive equation for the BMR of athletes was BMR (kcal/day) = 669 + 13 (weight in kg) + 192 (gender: 1 for men and 0 for women) (R2 0.548; standard error of estimates 163 kcal). Predicted BMRs of elite athletes by this equation were within 1.2% ± 9.5% of the measured BMR values. The novel predictive equation presented in this study can be used to calculate BMR for adult Malaysian elite athletes. Further studies may be required to validate its predictive capabilities for other sports, nationalities and age groups.

  6. Predicting Atomic Decay Rates Using an Informational-Entropic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleiser, Marcelo; Jiang, Nan

    2018-06-01

    We show that a newly proposed Shannon-like entropic measure of shape complexity applicable to spatially-localized or periodic mathematical functions known as configurational entropy (CE) can be used as a predictor of spontaneous decay rates for one-electron atoms. The CE is constructed from the Fourier transform of the atomic probability density. For the hydrogen atom with degenerate states labeled with the principal quantum number n, we obtain a scaling law relating the n-averaged decay rates to the respective CE. The scaling law allows us to predict the n-averaged decay rate without relying on the traditional computation of dipole matrix elements. We tested the predictive power of our approach up to n = 20, obtaining an accuracy better than 3.7% within our numerical precision, as compared to spontaneous decay tables listed in the literature.

  7. Predicting Atomic Decay Rates Using an Informational-Entropic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleiser, Marcelo; Jiang, Nan

    2018-02-01

    We show that a newly proposed Shannon-like entropic measure of shape complexity applicable to spatially-localized or periodic mathematical functions known as configurational entropy (CE) can be used as a predictor of spontaneous decay rates for one-electron atoms. The CE is constructed from the Fourier transform of the atomic probability density. For the hydrogen atom with degenerate states labeled with the principal quantum number n, we obtain a scaling law relating the n-averaged decay rates to the respective CE. The scaling law allows us to predict the n-averaged decay rate without relying on the traditional computation of dipole matrix elements. We tested the predictive power of our approach up to n = 20, obtaining an accuracy better than 3.7% within our numerical precision, as compared to spontaneous decay tables listed in the literature.

  8. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  9. Parent Ratings of Impulsivity and Inhibition Predict State Testing Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca A. Lundwall

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available One principle of cognitive development is that earlier intervention for educational difficulties tends to improve outcomes such as future educational and career success. One possible way to help students who struggle is to determine if they process information differently. Such determination might lead to clues for interventions. For example, early information processing requires attention before the information can be identified, encoded, and stored. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether parent ratings of inattention, inhibition, and impulsivity, and whether error rate on a reflexive attention task could be used to predict child scores on state standardized tests. Finding such an association could provide assistance to educators in identifying academically struggling children who might require targeted educational interventions. Children (N = 203 were invited to complete a peripheral cueing task (which measures the automatic reorienting of the brain’s attentional resources from one location to another. While the children completed the task, their parents completed a questionnaire. The questionnaire gathered information on broad indicators of child functioning, including observable behaviors of impulsivity, inattention, and inhibition, as well as state academic scores (which the parent retrieved online from their school. We used sequential regression to analyze contributions of error rate and parent-rated behaviors in predicting six academic scores. In one of the six analyses (for science, we found that the improvement was significant from the simplified model (with only family income, child age, and sex as predictors to the full model (adding error rate and three parent-rated behaviors. Two additional analyses (reading and social studies showed near significant improvement from simplified to full models. Parent-rated behaviors were significant predictors in all three of these analyses. In the reading score analysis

  10. Porosity prediction from seismic inversion, Lavrans Field, Halten Terrace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolberg, David M.

    1998-12-31

    This presentation relates to porosity prediction from seismic inversion. The porosity prediction concerns the Lavrans Field of the Halten Terrace on the Norwegian continental shelf. The main themes discussed here cover seismic inversion, rock physics, statistical analysis - verification of well trends, upscaling/sculpting, and implementation. 2 refs., 6 figs.

  11. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ying, Khor Chia; Hin, Pooi Ah

    2014-01-01

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ (j) of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ (j) , we assume that φ (j) depends on φ (j−m) , φ (j−m+1) ,…, φ (j−1) and the interest rate r j+n at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r j+n+1 of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r j+n of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r j+n+d at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters

  12. Prediction of interest rate using CKLS model with stochastic parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ying, Khor Chia [Faculty of Computing and Informatics, Multimedia University, Jalan Multimedia, 63100 Cyberjaya, Selangor (Malaysia); Hin, Pooi Ah [Sunway University Business School, No. 5, Jalan Universiti, Bandar Sunway, 47500 Subang Jaya, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    The Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (CKLS) model is a popular one-factor model for describing the spot interest rates. In this paper, the four parameters in the CKLS model are regarded as stochastic. The parameter vector φ{sup (j)} of four parameters at the (J+n)-th time point is estimated by the j-th window which is defined as the set consisting of the observed interest rates at the j′-th time point where j≤j′≤j+n. To model the variation of φ{sup (j)}, we assume that φ{sup (j)} depends on φ{sup (j−m)}, φ{sup (j−m+1)},…, φ{sup (j−1)} and the interest rate r{sub j+n} at the (j+n)-th time point via a four-dimensional conditional distribution which is derived from a [4(m+1)+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. Treating the (j+n)-th time point as the present time point, we find a prediction interval for the future value r{sub j+n+1} of the interest rate at the next time point when the value r{sub j+n} of the interest rate is given. From the above four-dimensional conditional distribution, we also find a prediction interval for the future interest rate r{sub j+n+d} at the next d-th (d≥2) time point. The prediction intervals based on the CKLS model with stochastic parameters are found to have better ability of covering the observed future interest rates when compared with those based on the model with fixed parameters.

  13. Predicting rates of interspecific interaction from phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuismer, Scott L; Harmon, Luke J

    2015-01-01

    Integrating phylogenetic information can potentially improve our ability to explain species' traits, patterns of community assembly, the network structure of communities, and ecosystem function. In this study, we use mathematical models to explore the ecological and evolutionary factors that modulate the explanatory power of phylogenetic information for communities of species that interact within a single trophic level. We find that phylogenetic relationships among species can influence trait evolution and rates of interaction among species, but only under particular models of species interaction. For example, when interactions within communities are mediated by a mechanism of phenotype matching, phylogenetic trees make specific predictions about trait evolution and rates of interaction. In contrast, if interactions within a community depend on a mechanism of phenotype differences, phylogenetic information has little, if any, predictive power for trait evolution and interaction rate. Together, these results make clear and testable predictions for when and how evolutionary history is expected to influence contemporary rates of species interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  14. Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

  15. Do predictions from Species Sensitivity Distributions match with field data?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smetanová, S.; Bláha, L.; Liess, M.; Schäfer, R.B.; Beketov, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a statistical model that can be used to predict effects of contaminants on biological communities, but only few comparisons of this model with field studies have been conducted so far. In the present study we used measured pesticides concentrations from streams in Germany, France, and Finland, and we used SSD to calculate msPAF (multiple substance potentially affected fraction) values based on maximum toxic stress at localities. We compared these SSD-based predictions with the actual effects on stream invertebrates quantified by the SPEAR pesticides bioindicator. The results show that the msPAFs correlated well with the bioindicator, however, the generally accepted SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 (5% of species are predicted to be affected) severely underestimated the observed effects (msPAF values causing significant effects are 2–1000-times lower). These results demonstrate that validation with field data is required to define the appropriate thresholds for SSD predictions. - Highlights: • We validated the statistical model Species Sensitivity Distribution with field data. • Good correlation was found between the model predictions and observed effects. • But, the generally accepted threshold msPAF 0.05 severely underestimated the effects. - Comparison of the SSD-based prediction with the field data evaluated with the SPEAR pesticides index shows that SSD threshold msPAF of 0.05 severely underestimates the effects observed in the field

  16. Rate-Based Model Predictive Control of Turbofan Engine Clearance

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCastro, Jonathan A.

    2006-01-01

    An innovative model predictive control strategy is developed for control of nonlinear aircraft propulsion systems and sub-systems. At the heart of the controller is a rate-based linear parameter-varying model that propagates the state derivatives across the prediction horizon, extending prediction fidelity to transient regimes where conventional models begin to lose validity. The new control law is applied to a demanding active clearance control application, where the objectives are to tightly regulate blade tip clearances and also anticipate and avoid detrimental blade-shroud rub occurrences by optimally maintaining a predefined minimum clearance. Simulation results verify that the rate-based controller is capable of satisfying the objectives during realistic flight scenarios where both a conventional Jacobian-based model predictive control law and an unconstrained linear-quadratic optimal controller are incapable of doing so. The controller is evaluated using a variety of different actuators, illustrating the efficacy and versatility of the control approach. It is concluded that the new strategy has promise for this and other nonlinear aerospace applications that place high importance on the attainment of control objectives during transient regimes.

  17. Improvement of energy expenditure prediction from heart rate during running

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlot, Keyne; Borne, Rachel; Richalet, Jean-Paul; Chapelot, Didier; Pichon, Aurélien; Cornolo, Jérémy; Brugniaux, Julien Vincent

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to develop new equations that predict exercise-induced energy expenditure (EE) more accurately than previous ones during running by including new parameters as fitness level, body composition and/or running intensity in addition to heart rate (HR). Original equations predicting EE were created from data obtained during three running intensities (25%, 50% and 70% of HR reserve) performed by 50 subjects. Five equations were conserved according to their accuracy assessed from error rates, interchangeability and correlations analyses: one containing only basic parameters, two containing VO 2max  or speed at VO 2max  and two including running speed with or without HR. Equations accuracy was further tested in an independent sample during a 40 min validation test at 50% of HR reserve. It appeared that: (1) the new basic equation was more accurate than pre-existing equations (R 2  0.809 versus. 0,737 respectively); (2) the prediction of EE was more accurate with the addition of VO 2max  (R 2  = 0.879); and (3) the equations containing running speed were the most accurate and were considered to have good agreement with indirect calorimetry. In conclusion, EE estimation during running might be significantly improved by including running speed in the predictive models, a parameter readily available with treadmill or GPS. (paper)

  18. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingkun Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  19. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods. PMID:26880879

  20. Combining Review Text Content and Reviewer-Item Rating Matrix to Predict Review Rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bingkun; Huang, Yongfeng; Li, Xing

    2016-01-01

    E-commerce develops rapidly. Learning and taking good advantage of the myriad reviews from online customers has become crucial to the success in this game, which calls for increasingly more accuracy in sentiment classification of these reviews. Therefore the finer-grained review rating prediction is preferred over the rough binary sentiment classification. There are mainly two types of method in current review rating prediction. One includes methods based on review text content which focus almost exclusively on textual content and seldom relate to those reviewers and items remarked in other relevant reviews. The other one contains methods based on collaborative filtering which extract information from previous records in the reviewer-item rating matrix, however, ignoring review textual content. Here we proposed a framework for review rating prediction which shows the effective combination of the two. Then we further proposed three specific methods under this framework. Experiments on two movie review datasets demonstrate that our review rating prediction framework has better performance than those previous methods.

  1. Aspect-Aware Latent Factor Model: Rating Prediction with Ratings and Reviews

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Zhiyong; Ding, Ying; Zhu, Lei; Kankanhalli, Mohan

    2018-01-01

    Although latent factor models (e.g., matrix factorization) achieve good accuracy in rating prediction, they suffer from several problems including cold-start, non-transparency, and suboptimal recommendation for local users or items. In this paper, we employ textual review information with ratings to tackle these limitations. Firstly, we apply a proposed aspect-aware topic model (ATM) on the review text to model user preferences and item features from different aspects, and estimate the aspect...

  2. Investigating dislocation motion through a field of solutes with atomistic simulations and reaction rate theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saroukhani, S.; Warner, D.H.

    2017-01-01

    The rate of thermally activated dislocation motion across a field of solutes is studied using traditional and modern atomistically informed rate theories. First, the accuracy of popular variants of the Harmonic Transition State Theory, as the most common approach, is examined by comparing predictions to direct MD simulations. It is shown that HTST predictions are grossly inaccurate due to the anharmonic effect of thermal softening. Next, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling was examined as the method was recently shown to be effective for predicting the rate of dislocation-precipitate interactions. For dislocation-solute interactions studied here, TIS is found to be accurate only when the dislocation overcomes multiple obstacles at a time, i.e. jerky motion, and it is inaccurate in the unpinning regime where the energy barrier is of diffusive nature. It is then shown that the Partial Path TIS method - designed for diffusive barriers - provides accurate predictions in the unpinning regime. The two methods are then used to study the temperature and load dependence of the rate. It is shown that Meyer-Neldel (MN) rule prediction of the entropy barrier is not as accurate as it is in the case of dislocation-precipitate interactions. In response, an alternative model is proposed that provides an accurate prediction of the entropy barrier. This model can be combined with TST to offer an attractively simple rate prediction approach. Lastly, (PP)TIS is used to predict the Strain Rate Sensitivity (SRS) factor at experimental strain rates and the predictions are compared to experimental values.

  3. On the Predictiveness of Single-Field Inflationary Models

    CERN Document Server

    Burgess, C.P.; Trott, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for $A_s$, $r$ and $n_s$ are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in prin...

  4. Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

    2017-09-01

    Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Predicting work Performance through selection interview ratings and Psychological assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liziwe Nzama

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to establish whether selection interviews used in conjunction with psychological assessments of personality traits and cognitive functioning contribute to predicting work performance. The sample consisted of 102 managers who were appointed recently in a retail organisation. The independent variables were selection interview ratings obtained on the basis of structured competency-based interview schedules by interviewing panels, fve broad dimensions of personality defned by the Five Factor Model as measured by the 15 Factor Questionnaire (15FQ+, and cognitive processing variables (current level of work, potential level of work, and 12 processing competencies measured by the Cognitive Process Profle (CPP. Work performance was measured through annual performance ratings that focused on measurable outputs of performance objectives. Only two predictor variables correlated statistically signifcantly with the criterion variable, namely interview ratings (r = 0.31 and CPP Verbal Abstraction (r = 0.34. Following multiple regression, only these variables contributed signifcantly to predicting work performance, but only 17.8% of the variance of the criterion was accounted for.

  6. Field measurement and interpretation of beta doses and dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selby, J.M.; Swinth, K.L.; Hooker, C.D.; Kenoyer, J.L.

    1983-01-01

    A large number of portable survey instruments employing G.M., ionization chamber, and scintillation detectors used for gamma measurements are also used for monitoring in beta fields by using removable shields to separate the beta and gamma components of the radiation field. The difference does not correspond to an absorbed dose rate for the beta field due to a variety of factors. Among these factors are the dependence on beta energy, source-detector geometries, mixed fields and variable ambient conditions. Attempting to use such measurements directly can lead to errors as high as a factor of 100. Appropriate calibrations and correction factors can be used to reduce the errors in beta measurements to a tolerable level

  7. Rates of change of the earth's magnetic field measured by recent analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, C. G. A.; Huang, Qilin

    1990-01-01

    Typical rates of change of the earth's magnetic field are presented as a function of the earth's spherical harmonics. Harmonics up to the eight degree are analyzed. With the increase in the degree of the harmonics an increase in the relative rate of change can be observed. For higher degrees, the rate of change can be predicted. This enables a differentiation between harmonics originating in the core and harmonics caused by crustal magnetization. The westward drift of the magnetic field depends on the longitudinal gradient of the field. In order to determine the longitudinal motions, harmonics up to degree 20 can be utilized. The average rate of secular acceleration increases with the degree of harmonics from 0.001 deg/sq yr for a dipole term to an average of 0.05 deg/sq yr for degree eight harmonics.

  8. Field measurement and interpretation of beta doses and dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selby, J.M.; Swinth, K.L.; Hooker, C.D.; Kenoyer, J.L.

    1983-01-01

    A wide variety of portable survey instruments employing GM, ionization chamber and scintillation detectors exist for the measurement of gamma exposure rates. Often these same survey instruments are used for monitoring beta fields. This is done by making measurements with and without a removable shield which is intended to shield out the non-penetrating component (beta) of the radiation field. The difference does not correspond to an absorbed dose rate for the beta field due to a variety of factors. Among these factors are the dependence on beta energy, source-detector geometries, mixed fields and variable ambient conditions. Attempting to use such measurements directly can lead to errors as high as a factor of 100. In many instances correction factors have been derived, that if properly applied, can reduce these errors substantially. However, this requires some knowledge of the beta spectra, calibration techniques and source geometry. This paper discusses some aspects of the proper use of instruments for beta measurements including the application of appropriate correction factors. Ionization type instruments are commonly used to measure beta dose rates. Through design and calibration these instruments will give an accurate reading only for uniform irradiation of the detection volume. Often in the field it is not feasible to meet these conditions. Large area uniform distributions of activity are not generally encountered and it is not possible to use large source-to-detector distances due to beta particle absorption in air. An example of correction factors required for various point sources is presented when a cutie pie ionization chamber is employed. The instrument reading is multiplied by the appropriate correction factor to obtain the dose rate at the window. When a different detector is used or for other geometries, a different set of correction factors must be used

  9. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Vu Trieu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS, rock brittleness index (BI, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW, and the alpha angle (Alpha between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP. Four (4 statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2 of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  10. Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

    2017-03-01

    This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

  11. Proton upset rate prediction: a new sensitive volume concept definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inguimbert, Christophe

    1999-01-01

    We present a model for predicting proton induced single event upset rate. The approach uses heavy ion cross section experimental data combined with nuclear reaction calculations in order to determine the proton upset cross section. The p+Si nuclear reaction as well as the Si(p, p)Si Coulombic scattering are described. The upset rate calculation depends on the energy deposited available in the charge collection region (sensitive region). This region is treated as a rectangular parallelepiped of thickness d at depth h. The sensitive thickness d is used as an input parameter in our model we have developed an original method to probe the sensitive region to evaluate d with reasonable accuracy d. We use short range ions and we propose a new mathematical analysis of these experimental data to determine h and d. This method consists in de-convoluting the heavy ion upset cross section σ_S_E_U(r) by the LET function of the incident ion LET(r) (r is the range of the incident ion). Our results are in relatively good agreement with other models. The accuracy of the method allows us to discuss the validity of the sensitive volume concept. Furthermore, we extrapolate an internal gain factor α that permit to take into account the charge collection mechanisms. α and d serve for quick and reasonably accurate prediction of proton induced SEU cross section in microelectronic devices. (author) [fr

  12. Kinetics of protein–ligand unbinding: Predicting pathways, rates, and rate-limiting steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwary, Pratyush; Limongelli, Vittorio; Salvalaglio, Matteo; Parrinello, Michele

    2015-01-01

    The ability to predict the mechanisms and the associated rate constants of protein–ligand unbinding is of great practical importance in drug design. In this work we demonstrate how a recently introduced metadynamics-based approach allows exploration of the unbinding pathways, estimation of the rates, and determination of the rate-limiting steps in the paradigmatic case of the trypsin–benzamidine system. Protein, ligand, and solvent are described with full atomic resolution. Using metadynamics, multiple unbinding trajectories that start with the ligand in the crystallographic binding pose and end with the ligand in the fully solvated state are generated. The unbinding rate koff is computed from the mean residence time of the ligand. Using our previously computed binding affinity we also obtain the binding rate kon. Both rates are in agreement with reported experimental values. We uncover the complex pathways of unbinding trajectories and describe the critical rate-limiting steps with unprecedented detail. Our findings illuminate the role played by the coupling between subtle protein backbone fluctuations and the solvation by water molecules that enter the binding pocket and assist in the breaking of the shielded hydrogen bonds. We expect our approach to be useful in calculating rates for general protein–ligand systems and a valid support for drug design. PMID:25605901

  13. The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings

    OpenAIRE

    Sanford Fidell; Barbara Tabachnick; Karl S Pearsons

    2010-01-01

    Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft) and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis proc...

  14. Decoherence of quantum fields: Pointer states and predictability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anglin, J.R.; Zurek, W.H.

    1996-01-01

    We study environmentally induced decoherence of an electromagnetic field in a homogeneous, linear, dielectric medium. We derive an independent oscillator model for such an environment, which is sufficiently realistic to encompass essentially all linear physical optics. Applying the open-quote open-quote predictability sieve close-quote close-quote to the quantum field, and introducing the concept of a open-quote open-quote quantum halo,close-quote close-quote we recover the familiar dichotomy between background field configurations and photon excitations around them. We are then able to explain why a typical linear environment for the electromagnetic field will effectively render the former classically distinct, but leave the latter fully quantum mechanical. Finally, we suggest how and why quantum matter fields should suffer a very different form of decoherence. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  15. Approximating tunneling rates in multi-dimensional field spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masoumi, Ali; Olum, Ken D.; Wachter, Jeremy M., E-mail: ali@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: kdo@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: Jeremy.Wachter@tufts.edu [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Quantum mechanics makes the otherwise stable vacua of a theory metastable through the nucleation of bubbles of the new vacuum. This in turn causes a first order phase transition. These cosmological phase transitions may have played an important role in settling our universe into its current vacuum, and they may also happen in future. The most important frameworks where vacuum decay happens contain a large number of fields. Unfortunately, calculating the tunneling rates in these models is very time-consuming. In this paper we present a simple approximation for the tunneling rate by reducing it to a one-field problem which is easy to calculate. We demonstrate the validity of this approximation using our recent code 'Anybubble' for several classes of potentials.

  16. Urate predicts rate of clinical decline in Parkinson disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascherio, Alberto; LeWitt, Peter A.; Xu, Kui; Eberly, Shirley; Watts, Arthur; Matson, Wayne R.; Marras, Connie; Kieburtz, Karl; Rudolph, Alice; Bogdanov, Mikhail B.; Schwid, Steven R.; Tennis, Marsha; Tanner, Caroline M.; Beal, M. Flint; Lang, Anthony E.; Oakes, David; Fahn, Stanley; Shoulson, Ira; Schwarzschild, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    Context The risk of Parkinson disease (PD) and its rate of progression may decline with increasing blood urate, a major antioxidant. Objective To determine whether serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of urate predict clinical progression in patients with PD. Design, Setting, and Participants 800 subjects with early PD enrolled in the DATATOP trial. Pre-treatment urate was measured in serum for 774 subjects and in CSF for 713. Main Outcome Measures Treatment-, age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for clinical disability requiring levodopa therapy, the pre-specified primary endpoint. Results The HR of progressing to endpoint decreased with increasing serum urate (HR for 1 standard deviation increase = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.93). In analyses stratified by α-tocopherol treatment (2,000 IU/day), a decrease in the HR for the primary endpoint was seen only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol (HR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.89, versus those treated HR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.75 to 1.08). Results were similar for the rate of change in the United Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). CSF urate was also inversely related to both the primary endpoint (HR for highest versus lowest quintile = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.54 to 0.96) and to the rate of change in UPDRS. As with serum urate, these associations were present only among subjects not treated with α-tocopherol. Conclusion Higher serum and CSF urate at baseline were associated with slower rates of clinical decline. The findings strengthen the link between urate and PD and the rationale for considering CNS urate elevation as a potential strategy to slow PD progression. PMID:19822770

  17. From lab to field: Geotechnical properties for predicting embankment settlement on Lake Bonneville deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoagland, K.C.; Sampaco, C.L.; Anderson, L.R.; Caliendo, J.A.; Rausher, L.; Keane, E.

    1994-01-01

    The results of a laboratory analysis, to determine geotechnical properties of lacustrine Lake Bonneville deposits, within the I-15 corridor of Salt Lake City, Utah, is presented. Laboratory vertical and horizontal consolidation coefficients are compared with those back-calculated from observed, field settlement data and linear relationships established. The results are used to select vertical and horizontal field coefficients and predict settlement rate of an existing embankment, scheduled for enlargement. 27 refs., 9 figs

  18. Strain rate orientations near the Coso Geothermal Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogasa, N. T.; Kaven, J. O.; Barbour, A. J.; von Huene, R.

    2016-12-01

    Many geothermal reservoirs derive their sustained capacity for heat exchange in large part due to continuous deformation of preexisting faults and fractures that permit permeability to be maintained. Similarly, enhanced geothermal systems rely on the creation of suitable permeability from fracture and faults networks to be viable. Stress measurements from boreholes or earthquake source mechanisms are commonly used to infer the tectonic conditions that drive deformation, but here we show that geodetic data can also be used. Specifically, we quantify variations in the horizontal strain rate tensor in the area surrounding the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) by analyzing more than two decades of high accuracy differential GPS data from a network of 14 stations from the University of Nevada Reno Geodetic Laboratory. To handle offsets in the data, from equipment changes and coseismic deformation, we segment the data, perform a piecewise linear fit and take the average of each segment's strain rate to determine secular velocities at each station. With respect to North America, all stations tend to travel northwest at velocities ranging from 1 to 10 mm/yr. The nearest station to CGF shows anomalous motion compared to regional stations, which otherwise show a coherent increase in network velocity from the northeast to the southwest. We determine strain rates via linear approximation using GPS velocities in Cartesian reference frame due to the small area of our network. Principal strain rate components derived from this inversion show maximum extensional strain rates of 30 nanostrain/a occur at N87W with compressional strain rates of 37nanostrain/a at N3E. These results generally align with previous stress measurements from borehole breakouts, which indicate the least compressive horizontal principal stress is east-west oriented, and indicative of the basin and range tectonic setting. Our results suggest that the CGF represents an anomaly in the crustal deformation field, which

  19. A prediction of rate-dependent behaviour in ferroelectric polycrystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sang-Joo

    2007-01-01

    Rate-dependent behaviour of a polycrystalline ferroelectric material is predicted based on thermal activation theory and a representative volume element model. First, the behaviour of a ferroelectric single crystal is calculated from a recently proposed three-dimensional free energy model [S.J. Kim, S. Seelecke, Int. J. Solids Struct. 44 (2007) 1196-1209]. Then, from the calculated single crystal responses, poling behaviour of a ferroelectric polycrystal is obtained in three different ways, two representative volume element models and Gaussian integration method. It is found that a dodecahedron representative volume element consisting of 210 crystallites is the best choice among the three methods. Finally, the behaviour of a ferroelectric polycrystal under various electric and stress loads is calculated using the chosen RVE model. The calculated responses are compared qualitatively with experimental observations, and the effects of crystal orientation and polycrystallinity are discussed

  20. A model for predicting wear rates in tooth enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrero-Lopez, Oscar; Pajares, Antonia; Constantino, Paul J; Lawn, Brian R

    2014-09-01

    It is hypothesized that wear of enamel is sensitive to the presence of sharp particulates in oral fluids and masticated foods. To this end, a generic model for predicting wear rates in brittle materials is developed, with specific application to tooth enamel. Wear is assumed to result from an accumulation of elastic-plastic micro-asperity events. Integration over all such events leads to a wear rate relation analogous to Archard׳s law, but with allowance for variation in asperity angle and compliance. The coefficient K in this relation quantifies the wear severity, with an arbitrary distinction between 'mild' wear (low K) and 'severe' wear (high K). Data from the literature and in-house wear-test experiments on enamel specimens in lubricant media (water, oil) with and without sharp third-body particulates (silica, diamond) are used to validate the model. Measured wear rates can vary over several orders of magnitude, depending on contact asperity conditions, accounting for the occurrence of severe enamel removal in some human patients (bruxing). Expressions for the depth removal rate and number of cycles to wear down occlusal enamel in the low-crowned tooth forms of some mammals are derived, with tooth size and enamel thickness as key variables. The role of 'hard' versus 'soft' food diets in determining evolutionary paths in different hominin species is briefly considered. A feature of the model is that it does not require recourse to specific material removal mechanisms, although processes involving microplastic extrusion and microcrack coalescence are indicated. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. When Theory Meets Data: Comparing Model Predictions Of Hillslope Sediment Size With Field Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoudi, M.; Sklar, L. S.; Leclere, S.; Davis, J. D.; Stine, A.

    2017-12-01

    The size distributions of sediment produced on hillslopes and supplied to river channels influence a wide range of fluvial processes, from bedrock river incision to the creation of aquatic habitats. However, the factors that control hillslope sediment size are poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict sediment size and model the evolution of sediment size distributions across landscapes. Recently separate field and theoretical investigations have begun to address this knowledge gap. Here we compare the predictions of several emerging modeling approaches to landscapes where high quality field data are available. Our goals are to explore the sensitivity and applicability of the theoretical models in each field context, and ultimately to provide a foundation for incorporating hillslope sediment size into models of landscape evolution. The field data include published measurements of hillslope sediment size from the Kohala peninsula on the island of Hawaii and tributaries to the Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains of California, and an unpublished data set from the Inyo Creek catchment of the southern Sierra Nevada. These data are compared to predictions adapted from recently published modeling approaches that include elements of topography, geology, structure, climate and erosion rate. Predictive models for each site are built in ArcGIS using field condition datasets: DEM topography (slope, aspect, curvature), bedrock geology (lithology, mineralogy), structure (fault location, fracture density), climate data (mean annual precipitation and temperature), and estimates of erosion rates. Preliminary analysis suggests that models may be finely tuned to the calibration sites, particularly when field conditions most closely satisfy model assumptions, leading to unrealistic predictions from extrapolation. We suggest a path forward for developing a computationally tractable method for incorporating spatial variation in production of hillslope

  2. An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Rajashree

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

  3. Evaluation of abutment scour prediction equations with field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, S.T.; Deshpande, N.; Aziz, N.M.

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with FHWA, compared predicted abutment scour depths, computed with selected predictive equations, with field observations collected at 144 bridges in South Carolina and at eight bridges from the National Bridge Scour Database. Predictive equations published in the 4th edition of Evaluating Scour at Bridges (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18) were used in this comparison, including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. The comparisons showed that most equations tended to provide conservative estimates of scour that at times were excessive (as large as 158 ft). Equations also produced underpredictions of scour, but with less frequency. Although the equations provide an important resource for evaluating abutment scour at bridges, the results of this investigation show the importance of using engineering judgment in conjunction with these equations.

  4. Predictive value of ventilatory inflection points determined under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyde, Christian; Mahler, Hubert; Roecker, Kai; Gollhofer, Albert

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential provided by two ventilatory inflection points (VIP1 and VIP2) examined in field without using gas analysis systems and uncomfortable facemasks. A calibrated respiratory inductance plethysmograph (RIP) and a computerised routine were utilised, respectively, to derive ventilation and to detect VIP1 and VIP2 during a standardised field ramp test on a 400 m running track on 81 participants. In addition, average running speed of a competitive 1000 m run (S1k) was observed as criterion. The predictive value of running speed at VIP1 (SVIP1) and the speed range between VIP1 and VIP2 in relation to VIP2 (VIPSPAN) was analysed via regression analysis. VIPSPAN rather than running speed at VIP2 (SVIP2) was operationalised as a predictor to consider the covariance between SVIP1 and SVIP2. SVIP1 and VIPSPAN, respectively, provided 58.9% and 22.9% of explained variance in regard to S1k. Considering covariance, the timing of two ventilatory inflection points provides predictive value in regard to a competitive 1000 m run. This is the first study to apply computerised detection of ventilatory inflection points in a field setting independent on measurements of the respiratory gas exchange and without using any facemasks.

  5. Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Sheng; Peng, Jian; Ma, Jianzhu; Xu, Jinbo

    2016-01-11

    Protein secondary structure (SS) prediction is important for studying protein structure and function. When only the sequence (profile) information is used as input feature, currently the best predictors can obtain ~80% Q3 accuracy, which has not been improved in the past decade. Here we present DeepCNF (Deep Convolutional Neural Fields) for protein SS prediction. DeepCNF is a Deep Learning extension of Conditional Neural Fields (CNF), which is an integration of Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and shallow neural networks. DeepCNF can model not only complex sequence-structure relationship by a deep hierarchical architecture, but also interdependency between adjacent SS labels, so it is much more powerful than CNF. Experimental results show that DeepCNF can obtain ~84% Q3 accuracy, ~85% SOV score, and ~72% Q8 accuracy, respectively, on the CASP and CAMEO test proteins, greatly outperforming currently popular predictors. As a general framework, DeepCNF can be used to predict other protein structure properties such as contact number, disorder regions, and solvent accessibility.

  6. An Electrochemical Method to Predict Corrosion Rates in Soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dafter, M. R. [Hunter Water Australia Pty Ltd, Newcastle (Australia)

    2016-10-15

    Linear polarization resistance (LPR) testing of soils has been used extensively by a number of water utilities across Australia for many years now to determine the condition of buried ferrous water mains. The LPR test itself is a relatively simple, inexpensive test that serves as a substitute for actual exhumation and physical inspection of buried water mains to determine corrosion losses. LPR testing results (and the corresponding pit depth estimates) in combination with proprietary pipe failure algorithms can provide a useful predictive tool in determining the current and future conditions of an asset{sup 1)}. A number of LPR tests have been developed on soil by various researchers over the years{sup 1)}, but few have gained widespread commercial use, partly due to the difficulty in replicating the results. This author developed an electrochemical cell that was suitable for LPR soil testing and utilized this cell to test a series of soil samples obtained through an extensive program of field exhumations. The objective of this testing was to examine the relationship between short-term electrochemical testing and long-term in-situ corrosion of buried water mains, utilizing an LPR test that could be robustly replicated. Forty-one soil samples and related corrosion data were obtained from ad hoc condition assessments of buried water mains located throughout the Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia. Each sample was subjected to the electrochemical test developed by the author, and the resulting polarization data were compared with long-term pitting data obtained from each water main. The results of this testing program enabled the author to undertake a comprehensive review of the LPR technique as it is applied to soils and to examine whether correlations can be made between LPR testing results and long-term field corrosion.

  7. A model to predict evaporation rates in habitats used by container-dwelling mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett-Healy, Kristen; Healy, Sean P; Hamilton, George C

    2011-05-01

    Container-dwelling mosquitoes use a wide variety of container habitats. The bottle cap is often cited as the smallest container habitat used by container species. When containers are small, the habitat conditions can greatly affect evaporation rates that in turn can affect the species dynamics within the container. An evaporation rate model was adapted to predict evaporation rates in mosquito container habitats. In both the laboratory and field, our model was able to predict actual evaporation rates. Examples of how the model may be applied are provided by examining the likelihood of Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Aedes aegypti (L.), and Culex pipiens pipiens (L.) completing their development within small-volume containers under typical environmental conditions and a range of temperatures. Our model suggests that under minimal direct sunlight exposure, both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus could develop within a bottle cap before complete evaporation. Our model shows that under the environmental conditions when a plastic field container was sampled, neither Ae. albopictus or Cx. p. pipiens could complete development in that particular container before the water evaporated. Although rainfall could replenish the habitat, the effects of evaporation would increase larval density, which could in turn further decrease developmental rates.

  8. Analysis, Simulation and Prediction of Multivariate Random Fields with Package RandomFields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Schlather

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of and inference on multivariate data that have been measured in space, such as temperature and pressure, are challenging tasks in environmental sciences, physics and materials science. We give an overview over and some background on modeling with cross- covariance models. The R package RandomFields supports the simulation, the parameter estimation and the prediction in particular for the linear model of coregionalization, the multivariate Matrn models, the delay model, and a spectrum of physically motivated vector valued models. An example on weather data is considered, illustrating the use of RandomFields for parameter estimation and prediction.

  9. Validation of resting metabolic rate prediction equations for teenagers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Henrique Santos da Fonseca

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The resting metabolic rate (RMR can be defi ned as the minimum rate of energy spent and represents the main component of the energetic outlay. The purpose of this study is to validate equations to predict the resting metabolic rate in teenagers (103 individuals, being 51 girls and 52 boys, with age between 10 and 17 years from Florianópolis – SC – Brazil. It was measured: the body weight, body height, skinfolds and obtained the lean and body fat mass through bioimpedance. The nonproteic RMR was measured by Weir’s equation (1949, utilizing AeroSport TEEM-100 gas analyzer. The studied equations were: Harry and Benedict (1919, Schofi eld (1985, WHO/FAO/UNU (1985, Henry and Rees (1991, Molnár et al. (1998, Tverskaya et al. (1998 and Müller et al. (2004. In order to study the cross-validation of the RMR prediction equations and its standard measure (Weir 1949, the following statistics procedure were calculated: Pearson’s correlation (r ≥ 0.70, the “t” test with the signifi cance level of p0.05 in relation to the standard measure, with exception of the equations suggested for Tverskaya et al. (1998, and the two models of Müller et al (2004. Even though there was not a signifi cant difference, only the models considered for Henry and Rees (1991, and Molnár et al. (1995 had gotten constant error variation under 5%. All the equations analyzed in the study in girls had not reached criterion of correlation values of 0.70 with the indirect calorimetry. Analyzing the prediction equations of RMR in boys, all of them had moderate correlation coeffi cients with the indirect calorimetry, however below 0.70. Only the equation developed for Tverskaya et al. (1998 presented differences (p ABSTRACT0,05 em relação à medida padrão (Weir 1949, com exceção das equações sugeridas por Tverskaya et al. (1998 e os dois modelos de Müller et al (2004. Mesmo não havendo diferença signifi cativa, somente os modelos propostos por Henry e Rees (1991

  10. Protein 8-class secondary structure prediction using conditional neural fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Feng; Peng, Jian; Xu, Jinbo

    2011-10-01

    Compared with the protein 3-class secondary structure (SS) prediction, the 8-class prediction gains less attention and is also much more challenging, especially for proteins with few sequence homologs. This paper presents a new probabilistic method for 8-class SS prediction using conditional neural fields (CNFs), a recently invented probabilistic graphical model. This CNF method not only models the complex relationship between sequence features and SS, but also exploits the interdependency among SS types of adjacent residues. In addition to sequence profiles, our method also makes use of non-evolutionary information for SS prediction. Tested on the CB513 and RS126 data sets, our method achieves Q8 accuracy of 64.9 and 64.7%, respectively, which are much better than the SSpro8 web server (51.0 and 48.0%, respectively). Our method can also be used to predict other structure properties (e.g. solvent accessibility) of a protein or the SS of RNA. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. Comparison between experimental and predicted specific absorption rate of functionalized iron oxide nanoparticle suspensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan Yuan [Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering Department Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 (United States); Tasciuc, Diana-Andra Borca, E-mail: borcad@rpi.edu [Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering Department Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 (United States)

    2011-10-15

    Radio-frequency heated magnetic nanoaparticle suspensions have potential applications in cancer hyperthermia. To optimize these systems for hyperthermia applications it is important to be able to predict how their heat generation or specific absorption rate (SAR) is influenced by various factors, including nanoparticle coating or functionalization and aggregation. However, at present it is unclear how well-existing models predict experimental SAR results. Direct comparisons between predicted and measured SAR are scarce, despite an abundance of works reporting on heat generation rate of various magnetic nanoparticles suspensions. The main objective of this paper is to experimentally assess the validity of current models for SAR and extract information on the effects of coating and aggregation on heat generation rate. In this context, AC susceptibility and magnetization of suspensions of uncoated particles, as well as particles with aminosilane and carboxymethyl-dextran functionalizations, were measured. These properties were then used to predict the heat generation rate in alternating magnetic field starting from first principles, which was then compared to measured SAR. It was found that experimental SAR agrees relatively well with predictions (by a factor of two) when using experimental susceptibility values for the SAR calculation. However, for uncoated and amine-functionalized particles poor agreement (more than an order of magnitude difference) was found when the experimental susceptibility was substituted with predictions based on the Debye model. This apparent discrepancy is attributed to dipolar interactions between nanoparticles within aggregates in these samples, which enhances the imaginary part of the susceptibility and, consequently, the SAR values. The results also suggest that the thermal resistance effect of the coating has little influence on the SAR. - Highlights: > Thermal resistance of nanoparticle coating has little impact on heat dissipation

  12. Assessment method to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reardon, P.T.; Eggers, R.F.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-06-01

    A method has been developed to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms of material loss in a nuclear facility. The computer program DETRES-1 was developed. The program first assigns the true values of control unit components receipts, shipments, beginning and ending inventories. A normal random number generator is used to generate measured values of each component. A loss estimator is calculated from the control unit's measured values. If the loss estimator triggers a detection alarm, a response is simulated. The response simulation is divided into two phases. The first phase is to simulate remeasurement of the components of the detection loss estimator using the same or better measurement methods or inferences from surrounding control units. If this phase of response continues to indicate a material loss, phase of response simulating a production shutdown and comprehensive cleanout is initiated. A new loss estimator is found, and tested against the alarm thresholds. If the estimator value is below the threshold, the original detection alarm is considered resolved; if above the threshold, an unresolved alarm has occurred. A tally is kept of valid alarms, unresolved false alarms, and failure to alarm upon a true loss

  13. Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-Impacting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, C.; Gopalswamy, N.; Reinard, A.; Opher, M.

    2017-01-01

    Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

  14. Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Scott K.; Haslauer, Claus P.; Cirpka, Olaf A.; Vesselinov, Velimir V.

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to predict the shape of solute breakthrough curves in heterogeneous aquifers at early times and/or under high degrees of heterogeneity, both cases in which the classical macrodispersion theory may not be applicable. The methodology relies on the observation that breakthrough curves in heterogeneous media are generally well described by lognormal distributions, and mean breakthrough times can be predicted analytically. The log-variance of solute arrival is thus sufficient to completely specify the breakthrough curves, and this is calibrated as a function of aquifer heterogeneity and dimensionless distance from a source plane by means of Monte Carlo analysis and statistical regression. Using the ensemble of simulated groundwater flow and solute transport realizations employed to calibrate the predictive regression, reliability estimates for the prediction are also developed. Additional theoretical contributions include heuristics for the time until an effective macrodispersion coefficient becomes applicable, and also an expression for its magnitude that applies in highly heterogeneous systems. It is seen that the results here represent a way to derive continuous time random walk transition distributions from physical considerations rather than from empirical field calibration.

  15. Deep recurrent conditional random field network for protein secondary prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Alexander Rosenberg; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Sønderby, Casper Kaae

    2017-01-01

    Deep learning has become the state-of-the-art method for predicting protein secondary structure from only its amino acid residues and sequence profile. Building upon these results, we propose to combine a bi-directional recurrent neural network (biRNN) with a conditional random field (CRF), which...... of the labels for all time-steps. We condition the CRF on the output of biRNN, which learns a distributed representation based on the entire sequence. The biRNN-CRF is therefore close to ideally suited for the secondary structure task because a high degree of cross-talk between neighboring elements can...

  16. Prediction of work metabolism from heart rate measurements in forest work: some practical methodological issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Auger, Isabelle; Leone, Mario

    2015-01-01

    Individual heart rate (HR) to workload relationships were determined using 93 submaximal step-tests administered to 26 healthy participants attending physical activities in a university training centre (laboratory study) and 41 experienced forest workers (field study). Predicted maximum aerobic capacity (MAC) was compared to measured MAC from a maximal treadmill test (laboratory study) to test the effect of two age-predicted maximum HR Equations (220-age and 207-0.7 × age) and two clothing insulation levels (0.4 and 0.91 clo) during the step-test. Work metabolism (WM) estimated from forest work HR was compared against concurrent work V̇O2 measurements while taking into account the HR thermal component. Results show that MAC and WM can be accurately predicted from work HR measurements and simple regression models developed in this study (1% group mean prediction bias and up to 25% expected prediction bias for a single individual). Clothing insulation had no impact on predicted MAC nor age-predicted maximum HR equations. Practitioner summary: This study sheds light on four practical methodological issues faced by practitioners regarding the use of HR methodology to assess WM in actual work environments. More specifically, the effect of wearing work clothes and the use of two different maximum HR prediction equations on the ability of a submaximal step-test to assess MAC are examined, as well as the accuracy of using an individual's step-test HR to workload relationship to predict WM from HR data collected during actual work in the presence of thermal stress.

  17. Field Measurements Indicate Unexpected, Serious Underestimation of Mussel Heart Rates and Thermal Tolerance by Laboratory Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgana Tagliarolo

    Full Text Available Attempts to predict the response of species to long-term environmental change are generally based on extrapolations from laboratory experiments that inevitably simplify the complex interacting effects that occur in the field. We recorded heart rates of two genetic lineages of the brown mussel Perna perna over a full tidal cycle in-situ at two different sites in order to evaluate the cardiac responses of the two genetic lineages present on the South African coast to temperature and the immersion/emersion cycle. "Robomussel" temperature loggers were used to monitor thermal conditions at the two sites over one year. Comparison with live animals showed that robomussels provided a good estimate of mussel body temperatures. A significant difference in estimated body temperatures was observed between the sites and the results showed that, under natural conditions, temperatures regularly approach or exceed the thermal limits of P. perna identified in the laboratory. The two P. perna lineages showed similar tidal and diel patterns of heart rate, with higher cardiac activity during daytime immersion and minimal values during daytime emersion. Comparison of the heart rates measured in the field with data previously measured in the laboratory indicates that laboratory results seriously underestimate heart rate activity, by as much as 75%, especially during immersion. Unexpectedly, field estimates of body temperatures indicated an ability to tolerate temperatures considered lethal on the basis of laboratory measurements. This suggests that the interaction of abiotic conditions in the field does not necessarily raise vulnerability to high temperatures.

  18. An SEU rate prediction method for microprocessors of space applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Jie; Li Qiang

    2012-01-01

    In this article,the relationship between static SEU (Single Event Upset) rate and dynamic SEU rate in microprocessors for satellites is studied by using process duty cycle concept and fault injection technique. The results are compared to in-orbit flight monitoring data. The results show that dynamic SEU rate by using process duty cycle can estimate in-orbit SEU rate of microprocessor reasonable; and the fault injection technique is a workable method to estimate SEU rate. (authors)

  19. Experimental data and theoretical predictions for the rate of electrophoretic clarification of colloidal suspensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, T.J.; Davis, E.J.

    2000-05-01

    An experimental and theoretical investigation of the electrophoretic clarification rate of colloidal suspensions was conducted. The suspensions included a coal-washing effluent and a model system of TiO{sub 2} particles. A parametric study of TiO{sub 2} suspensions was performed to validate and analysis of the electrophoretic motion of the clarification front formed between a clear zone and the suspension. To measure the electric field strength needed in the prediction of the location of the front, a moveable probe and salt bridge were connected to a reference electrode. Using the measured electric field strengths, it was found that the numerical solution to the unit cell electrophoresis model agrees with the measured clarification rates. For suspensions with moderately thick electric double layers and high particle volume fractions the deviations from classical Smoluchowski theory are substantial, and the numerical analysis is in somewhat better agreement with the data than a prior solution of the problem. The numerical model reduces to the predictions of previous theories as the thickness of the electric double layer decreases, and it is in good agreement with the clarification rate measured for a coal-washing effluent suspension with thin electric double layers.

  20. Experimental data and theoretical predictions of the rate of electrophoretic clarification of colloidal suspensions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, T.J.; Davis, E.J. [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2000-05-01

    An experimental and theoretical investigation of the electrophoretic clarification rate of colloidal suspensions was conducted. The suspensions included a coal-washing effluent and a model system of TiO{sub 2} particles. A parametric study of TiO{sub 2} suspensions was performed to validate an analysis of the electrophoretic motion of the clarification front formed between a clear zone and the suspension. To measure the electric field strength needed in the prediction of the location of the front, a moveable probe and salt bridge were connected to a reference electrode. Using the measured electric field strength, it was found that the numerical solution to the unit cell electrophoresis model agrees with the measured clarification rates. For suspensions with moderately thick electric double layers and high particle volume fractions the deviations from classical Smoluchowski theory are substantial, and the numerical analysis is in somewhat better agreement with the data than a prior solution of the problem. The numerical model reduces to the predictions of previous theories as the thickness of the electric double layer decreases, and it is in good agreement with the clarification rate measured for a coal-washing effluent suspension with thin electric double layers. 21 refs., 8 figs., 4 tabs.

  1. Prior rates of visual field loss and lifetime risk of blindness in glaucomatous patients undergoing trabeculectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulsham, W S; Fu, L; Tatham, A J

    2015-10-01

    Trend-based analyses examining rates of visual field (VF) loss in glaucoma are useful for predicting risk of vision-related morbidity. Although patients with faster losses are likely to require treatment escalation, little is known about rates that might trigger a decision to intervene surgically. The aims of this study were to investigate prior rates of VF loss in patients attending for trabeculectomy and to estimate, in the absence of surgical intervention, lifetime risk of visual impairment, and blindness. A retrospective analysis of 117 eyes of 86 consecutive patients with glaucoma attending for trabeculectomy, including 53 patients referred from general ophthalmology clinics and 33 patients from specialist glaucoma clinics. Rates of change in standard automated perimetry mean deviation were examined using linear regression and random coefficient models. Risk of lifetime visual impairment and blindness was calculated using life expectancy data. Mean age at surgery was 71.0±9.7 years. Patients were followed for 10.7±7.5 years prior to surgery with an average of seven useable fields per eye. On average patients referred from general clinics lost 1.04 dB/year compared with 0.77 dB/year in those referred from glaucoma clinics (P=0.070). Patients referred from general clinics had more medication changes prior to surgery (3.4 and 2.6 changes, respectively; P=0.004). Given Scottish life expectancy data, untreated, 61 eyes (52%) would have passed the threshold for visual impairment, whereas 40 (34%) would have passed the threshold demarcating blindness. Patients attending for trabeculectomy had faster average rates of field loss prior to surgery than published values for the general glaucoma population with over one-third of eyes studied predicted to have become blind without intervention. Those managed by glaucoma specialists had fewer changes in medication and tended to slower rates of VF loss, although the latter did not reach statistical significance.

  2. Predictions of integrated circuit serviceability in space radiation fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khamidullina, N.M.; Kuznetsov, N.V.; Pichkhadze, K.M.; Popov, V.D

    1999-10-01

    The present paper suggests an approach to estimating and predicting the serviceability of on-board electronic equipment. It is based on the postulates of the reliability theory and accounts for total-dose and single-event radiation effects as well as other exterior destabilizing factors. The methods of determination of failure and upset rates for CMOS devices are considered. The probability of non-failure operation of a two CMOS RAM is calculated along the whole trajectory of the 'Solar Probe' spacecraft.

  3. An empirical model to predict infield thin layer drying rate of cut switchgrass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khanchi, A.; Jones, C.L.; Sharma, B.; Huhnke, R.L.; Weckler, P.; Maness, N.O.

    2013-01-01

    A series of 62 thin layer drying experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and wind speed on drying rate of switchgrass. An environmental chamber was fabricated that can simulate field drying conditions. An empirical drying model based on maturity stage of switchgrass was also developed during the study. It was observed that solar radiation was the most significant factor in improving the drying rate of switchgrass at seed shattering and seed shattered maturity stage. Therefore, drying switchgrass in wide swath to intercept the maximum amount of radiation at these stages of maturity is recommended. Moreover, it was observed that under low radiation intensity conditions, wind speed helps to improve the drying rate of switchgrass. Field operations such as raking or turning of the windrows are recommended to improve air circulation within a swath on cloudy days. Additionally, it was found that the effect of individual weather parameters on the drying rate of switchgrass was dependent on maturity stage. Vapor pressure deficit was strongly correlated with the drying rate during seed development stage whereas, vapor pressure deficit was weakly correlated during seed shattering and seed shattered stage. These findings suggest the importance of using separate drying rate models for each maturity stage of switchgrass. The empirical models developed in this study can predict the drying time of switchgrass based on the forecasted weather conditions so that the appropriate decisions can be made. -- Highlights: • An environmental chamber was developed in the present study to simulate field drying conditions. • An empirical model was developed that can estimate drying rate of switchgrass based on forecasted weather conditions. • Separate equations were developed based on maturity stage of switchgrass. • Designed environmental chamber can be used to evaluate the effect of other parameters that affect drying of crops

  4. Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-impacting CMEs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kay, C.; Gopalswamy, N. [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Reinard, A. [University of Colorado/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO 80505 (United States); Opher, M., E-mail: christina.d.kay@nasa.gov [Astronomy Department, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME’s magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME’s position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME’s position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

  5. The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fidell, Sanford; Tabachnick, Barbara; Pearsons, Karl S

    2010-01-01

    Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft) and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis procedures. The credibility, generalizability, and utility of sleep disturbance predictions are also limited by small and nonrepresentative samples of test participants, and by restricted (airport-specific and relatively short duration) circumstances of exposure. Although expedient relationships may be the best available, their predictions are of only limited utility for policy analysis and regulatory purposes, because they account for very little variance in the association between environmental noise and sleep disturbance, have characteristically shallow slopes, have not been well validated in field settings, are highly context-dependent, and do not squarely address the roles and relative importance of nonacoustic factors in sleep disturbance. Such relationships offer the appearance more than the substance of precision and objectivity. Truly useful, population-level prediction and genuine understanding of noise-induced sleep disturbance will remain beyond reach for the foreseeable future, until the findings of field studies of broader scope and more sophisticated design become available.

  6. The state of the art of predicting noise-induced sleep disturbance in field settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanford Fidell

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Several relationships between intruding noises (largely aircraft and sleep disturbance have been inferred from the findings of a handful of field studies. Comparisons of sleep disturbance rates predicted by the various relationships are complicated by inconsistent data collection methods and definitions of predictor variables and predicted quantities. None of the relationships is grounded in theory-based understanding, and some depend on questionable statistical assumptions and analysis procedures. The credibility, generalizability, and utility of sleep disturbance predictions are also limited by small and nonrepresentative samples of test participants, and by restricted (airport-specific and relatively short duration circumstances of exposure. Although expedient relationships may be the best available, their predictions are of only limited utility for policy analysis and regulatory purposes, because they account for very little variance in the association between environmental noise and sleep disturbance, have characteristically shallow slopes, have not been well validated in field settings, are highly context-dependent, and do not squarely address the roles and relative importance of nonacoustic factors in sleep disturbance. Such relationships offer the appearance more than the substance of precision and objectivity. Truly useful, population-level prediction and genuine understanding of noise-induced sleep disturbance will remain beyond reach for the foreseeable future, until the findings of field studies of broader scope and more sophisticated design become available.

  7. Sensorimotor abilities predict on-field performance in professional baseball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burris, Kyle; Vittetoe, Kelly; Ramger, Benjamin; Suresh, Sunith; Tokdar, Surya T; Reiter, Jerome P; Appelbaum, L Gregory

    2018-01-08

    Baseball players must be able to see and react in an instant, yet it is hotly debated whether superior performance is associated with superior sensorimotor abilities. In this study, we compare sensorimotor abilities, measured through 8 psychomotor tasks comprising the Nike Sensory Station assessment battery, and game statistics in a sample of 252 professional baseball players to evaluate the links between sensorimotor skills and on-field performance. For this purpose, we develop a series of Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models enabling us to compare statistics across professional baseball leagues. Within this framework, we find that sensorimotor abilities are significant predictors of on-base percentage, walk rate and strikeout rate, accounting for age, position, and league. We find no such relationship for either slugging percentage or fielder-independent pitching. The pattern of results suggests performance contributions from both visual-sensory and visual-motor abilities and indicates that sensorimotor screenings may be useful for player scouting.

  8. Lightning Prediction using Electric Field Measurements Associated with Convective Events at a Tropical Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, S.; Chakraborty, R.; Maitra, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nowcasting of lightning activities during intense convective events using a single electric field monitor (EFM) has been carried out at a tropical location, Kolkata (22.65oN, 88.45oE). Before and at the onset of heavy lightning, certain changes of electric field (EF) can be related to high liquid water content (LWC) and low cloud base height (CBH). The present study discusses the utility of EF observation to show a few aspects of convective events. Large convective cloud showed by high LWC and low CBH can be detected from EF variation which could be a precursor of upcoming convective events. Suitable values of EF gradient can be used as an indicator of impending lightning events. An EF variation of 0.195 kV/m/min can predict lightning within 17.5 km radius with a probability of detection (POD) of 91% and false alarm rate (FAR) of 8% with a lead time of 45 min. The total number of predicted lightning strikes is nearly 9 times less than that measured by the lightning detector. This prediction technique can, therefore, give an estimate of cloud to ground (CG) and intra cloud (IC) lighting occurrences within the surrounding area. This prediction technique involving POD, FAR and lead time information shows a better prediction capability compared to the techniques reported earlier. Thus an EFM can be effectively used for prediction of lightning events at a tropical location.

  9. A Smart Soft Sensor Predicting Feedwater Flow Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Heon Young; Na, Man Gyun

    2009-01-01

    Since we evaluate thermal nuclear reactor power with secondary system calorimetric calculations based on feedwater flow rate measurements, we need to measure the feedwater flow rate accurately. The Venturi flow meters that are being used to measure the feedwater flow rate in most pressurized water reactors (PWRs) measure the flow rate by developing a differential pressure across a physical flow restriction. The differential pressure is then multiplied by a calibration factor that depends on various flow conditions in order to calculate the feedwater flow rate. The calibration factor is determined by the feedwater temperature and pressure. However, Venturi meters cause a buildup of corrosion products near the orifice of the meter. This fouling increases the measured pressure drop across the meter, thereby causing an overestimation of the feedwater flow rate

  10. Predicting Translation Initiation Rates for Designing Synthetic Biology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeve, Benjamin; Hargest, Thomas; Gilbert, Charlie; Ellis, Tom

    2014-01-01

    In synthetic biology, precise control over protein expression is required in order to construct functional biological systems. A core principle of the synthetic biology approach is a model-guided design and based on the biological understanding of the process, models of prokaryotic protein production have been described. Translation initiation rate is a rate-limiting step in protein production from mRNA and is dependent on the sequence of the 5′-untranslated region and the start of the coding sequence. Translation rate calculators are programs that estimate protein translation rates based on the sequence of these regions of an mRNA, and as protein expression is proportional to the rate of translation initiation, such calculators have been shown to give good approximations of protein expression levels. In this review, three currently available translation rate calculators developed for synthetic biology are considered, with limitations and possible future progress discussed.

  11. Unpredictable After All? A short note on exchange rate predictability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.A. Moerman (Gerard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractEarlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including

  12. Conversion Factors for Predicting Unshielded Dose Rates in Shielded Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clapham, M.; Seamans Jr, J.V.; Arbon, R.E.

    2009-01-01

    This document describes the methodology developed and used by the Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project for determining the activity content and the unshielded surface dose rate for lead lined containers contaminated with transuranic waste. Several methods were investigated: - Direct measurement of the dose rate after removing the shielding. - Use of a MicroShield R derived dose conversion factor, (mRem/hr unshielded )/(mRem/hr shielded ), applied to the measured surface dose rate to estimate the unshielded surface dose rate. - Use of a MicroShield R derived activity conversion factor, mRem/hr unshielded /Ci, applied to the measured activity to estimate the unshielded dose rate. - Use of an empirically derived activity conversion factor, mRem/hr unshielded /Ci, applied to the measured activity to estimate the unshielded dose rate. The last approach proved to be the most efficacious by using a combination of nondestructive assay and empirically defined dose rate conversion factors. Empirically derived conversion factors were found to be highly dependent upon the matrix of the waste. Use of conversion factors relied on activity values corrected to address the presence of a lead liner. (authors)

  13. Predictive power of theoretical modelling of the nuclear mean field: examples of improving predictive capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedes, I.; Dudek, J.

    2018-03-01

    We examine the effects of the parametric correlations on the predictive capacities of the theoretical modelling keeping in mind the nuclear structure applications. The main purpose of this work is to illustrate the method of establishing the presence and determining the form of parametric correlations within a model as well as an algorithm of elimination by substitution (see text) of parametric correlations. We examine the effects of the elimination of the parametric correlations on the stabilisation of the model predictions further and further away from the fitting zone. It follows that the choice of the physics case and the selection of the associated model are of secondary importance in this case. Under these circumstances we give priority to the relative simplicity of the underlying mathematical algorithm, provided the model is realistic. Following such criteria, we focus specifically on an important but relatively simple case of doubly magic spherical nuclei. To profit from the algorithmic simplicity we chose working with the phenomenological spherically symmetric Woods–Saxon mean-field. We employ two variants of the underlying Hamiltonian, the traditional one involving both the central and the spin orbit potential in the Woods–Saxon form and the more advanced version with the self-consistent density-dependent spin–orbit interaction. We compare the effects of eliminating of various types of correlations and discuss the improvement of the quality of predictions (‘predictive power’) under realistic parameter adjustment conditions.

  14. Reduction of momentum transfer rates by parallel electric fields: A two-fluid demonstration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delamere, P.A.; Stenbaek-Nielsen, H.C.; Otto, A.

    2002-01-01

    Momentum transfer between an ionized gas cloud moving relative to an ambient magnetized plasma is a general problem in space plasma physics. Obvious examples include the Io-Jupiter interaction, comets, and coronal mass ejections. Active plasma experiments have demonstrated that momentum transfer rates associated with Alfven wave propagation are poorly understood. Barium injection experiments from the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) have shown that dense ionized clouds are capable of ExB drifting over large distances perpendicular to the magnetic field. The CRRES 'skidding' distances were much larger than predicted by magnetohydrodynamic theory and it has been proposed that parallel electric fields were a key component in the skidding phenomenon. A two-fluid code was used to demonstrate the role of parallel electric fields in reducing momentum transfer between two distinct plasma populations. In this study, a dense plasma was initialized moving relative to an ambient plasma and perpendicular to B. Parallel electric fields were introduced via a friction term in the electron momentum equation and the collision frequency was scaled in proportion to the field-aligned current density. The simulation results showed that parallel electric fields decreased the decelerating magnetic tension force on the plasma cloud through a magnetic diffusion/reconnection process

  15. Split credit ratings and the prediction of bank ratings in the Basel II environment

    OpenAIRE

    Barton, Amanda

    2006-01-01

    This thesis investigates two aspects of credit risk measurement in the context of Basel 11: The International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards. The first is the problem arising when two credit rating agencies disagree over the rating assigned to an issuer and a split rating arises. The second area is the determination of internal credit rating models for use under the Internal ratings-based approach. This thesis presents a variety of bank rating modes for individual an...

  16. empirical model for predicting rate of biogas production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale ... Biogas is a Gas obtained by anaerobic ... A. A. Adamu, Petroleum and Natural Gas Processing Department, Petroleum Training Institute, P.M.B..

  17. Prediction of mechanical properties of Al alloys with change of cooling rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan-Zhi Dong

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The solidification process significantly affects the mechanical properties and there are lots of factors that affect the solidification process. Much progress has been made in the research on the effect of solidification on mechanical properties. Among them, the PF (Phase Field model and CA (Cellular Automata model are widely used as simulation methods which can predict nucleation and its growth, and the size and morphology of the grains during solidification. Although they can give accurate calculation results, it needs too much computational memory and calculation time. So it is difficult to apply the simulation to the real production process. In this study, a more practical simulation approach which can predict the mechanical properties of real aluminum alloys is proposed, by identifying through experiment the relationship between cooling rate and SDAS (Secondary Dendrite Arm Spacing and mechanical properties. The experimentally measured values and the values predicted by simulation have relatively small differences and the mechanical properties of a variety of Al alloys are expected to be predicted before casting through use of the simulation.

  18. Protein thermodynamics can be predicted directly from biological growth rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Corkrey

    Full Text Available Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122 °C. The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA. This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model.

  19. Characterizing and predicting rates of delirium across general hospital settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Thomas H; Hart, Kamber L; Perlis, Roy H

    2017-05-01

    To better understand variation in reported rates of delirium, this study characterized delirium occurrence rate by department of service and primary admitting diagnosis. Nine consecutive years (2005-2013) of general hospital admissions (N=831,348) were identified across two academic medical centers using electronic health records. The primary admitting diagnosis and the treating clinical department were used to calculate occurrence rates of a previously published delirium definition composed of billing codes and natural language processing of discharge summaries. Delirium rates varied significantly across both admitting diagnosis group (X 2 10 =12786, pdelirium (86/109764; 0.08%) and neurological admissions the greatest (2851/25450; 11.2%). Although the rate of delirium varied across the two hospitals the relative rates within departments (r=0.96, pdelirium varies significantly across admitting diagnosis and hospital department. Both admitting diagnosis and department of care are even stronger predictors of risk than age; as such, simple risk stratification may offer avenues for targeted prevention and treatment efforts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Do illness rating systems predict discharge location, length of stay, and cost after total hip arthroplasty?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E. Rudasill, BA

    2018-06-01

    Conclusions: These findings suggest that although ASA classifications predict discharge location and SOI scores predict length of stay and total costs, other factors beyond illness rating systems remain stronger predictors of discharge for THA patients.

  1. Sex allocation predicts mating rate in a simultaneous hermaphrodite

    OpenAIRE

    Janicke, Tim; Schärer, Lukas

    2009-01-01

    Sexual selection theory for separate-sexed animals predicts that the sexes differ in the benefit they can obtain from multiple mating. Conventional sex roles assume that the relationship between the number of mates and the fitness of an individual is steeper in males compared with females. Under these conditions, males are expected to be more eager to mate, whereas females are expected to be choosier. Here we hypothesize that the sex allocation, i.e. the reproductive investment devoted to the...

  2. Predicted occurrence rate of severe transportation accidents involving large casks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, A.W.

    1978-01-01

    A summary of the results of an investigation of the severities of highway and railroad accidents as they relate to the shipment of large radioactive materials casks is discussed. The accident environments considered are fire, impact, crash, immersion, and puncture. For each of these environments, the accident severities and their predicted frequencies of occurrence are presented. These accident environments are presented in tabular and graphic form to allow the reader to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the accident parameter severities he selects

  3. Prediction and optimization of the recovery rate in centrifugal separation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piao, Linfeng; Park, Hyungmin; Jo, Chris

    2016-11-01

    We present a theoretical model of the recovery rate of platelet and white blood cell in the process of centrifugal separation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP). For the practically used conditions in the field, the separation process is modeled as a one-dimensional particle sedimentation; a quasi-linear partial differential equation is derived based on the kinematic-wave theory. This is solved to determine the interface positions between supernatant-suspension and suspension-sediment, used to estimate the recovery rate of the plasma. While correcting the Brown's hypothesis (1989) claiming that the platelet recovery is linearly proportional to that of plasma, we propose a new correlation model for prediction of the platelet recovery, which is a function of the volume of whole blood, centrifugal acceleration and time. For a range of practical parameters, such as hematocrit, volume of whole blood and centrifugation (time and acceleration), the predicted recovery rate shows a good agreement with available clinical data. We propose that this model is further used to optimize the preparation method of PRP that satisfies the customized case. Supported by a Grant (MPSS-CG-2016-02) through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  4. Flow Field and Acoustic Predictions for Three-Stream Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Shaun Patrick; Henderson, Brenda S.; Khavaran, Abbas

    2014-01-01

    Computational fluid dynamics was used to analyze a three-stream nozzle parametric design space. The study varied bypass-to-core area ratio, tertiary-to-core area ratio and jet operating conditions. The flowfield solutions from the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code Overflow 2.2e were used to pre-screen experimental models for a future test in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). Flowfield solutions were considered in conjunction with the jet-noise-prediction code JeNo to screen the design concepts. A two-stream versus three-stream computation based on equal mass flow rates showed a reduction in peak turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) for the three-stream jet relative to that for the two-stream jet which resulted in reduced acoustic emission. Additional three-stream solutions were analyzed for salient flowfield features expected to impact farfield noise. As tertiary power settings were increased there was a corresponding near nozzle increase in shear rate that resulted in an increase in high frequency noise and a reduction in peak TKE. As tertiary-to-core area ratio was increased the tertiary potential core elongated and the peak TKE was reduced. The most noticeable change occurred as secondary-to-core area ratio was increased thickening the secondary potential core, elongating the primary potential core and reducing peak TKE. As forward flight Mach number was increased the jet plume region decreased and reduced peak TKE.

  5. Enhancement of Visual Field Predictions with Pointwise Exponential Regression (PER) and Pointwise Linear Regression (PLR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Esteban; de Leon, John Mark S; Abdollahi, Niloufar; Yu, Fei; Nouri-Mahdavi, Kouros; Caprioli, Joseph

    2016-03-01

    The study was conducted to evaluate threshold smoothing algorithms to enhance prediction of the rates of visual field (VF) worsening in glaucoma. We studied 798 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma and 6 or more years of follow-up who underwent 8 or more VF examinations. Thresholds at each VF location for the first 4 years or first half of the follow-up time (whichever was greater) were smoothed with clusters defined by the nearest neighbor (NN), Garway-Heath, Glaucoma Hemifield Test (GHT), and weighting by the correlation of rates at all other VF locations. Thresholds were regressed with a pointwise exponential regression (PER) model and a pointwise linear regression (PLR) model. Smaller root mean square error (RMSE) values of the differences between the observed and the predicted thresholds at last two follow-ups indicated better model predictions. The mean (SD) follow-up times for the smoothing and prediction phase were 5.3 (1.5) and 10.5 (3.9) years. The mean RMSE values for the PER and PLR models were unsmoothed data, 6.09 and 6.55; NN, 3.40 and 3.42; Garway-Heath, 3.47 and 3.48; GHT, 3.57 and 3.74; and correlation of rates, 3.59 and 3.64. Smoothed VF data predicted better than unsmoothed data. Nearest neighbor provided the best predictions; PER also predicted consistently more accurately than PLR. Smoothing algorithms should be used when forecasting VF results with PER or PLR. The application of smoothing algorithms on VF data can improve forecasting in VF points to assist in treatment decisions.

  6. Predicting temperature drop rate of mass concrete during an initial cooling period using genetic programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Santosh; Zhou, Yihong; Zhao, Chunju; Zhou, Huawei

    2018-02-01

    Thermal cracking on concrete dams depends upon the rate at which the concrete is cooled (temperature drop rate per day) within an initial cooling period during the construction phase. Thus, in order to control the thermal cracking of such structure, temperature development due to heat of hydration of cement should be dropped at suitable rate. In this study, an attempt have been made to formulate the relation between cooling rate of mass concrete with passage of time (age of concrete) and water cooling parameters: flow rate and inlet temperature of cooling water. Data measured at summer season (April-August from 2009 to 2012) from recently constructed high concrete dam were used to derive a prediction model with the help of Genetic Programming (GP) software “Eureqa”. Coefficient of Determination (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The value of R and MSE is 0.8855 and 0.002961 respectively. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the relative impact on the target parameter due to input parameters. Further, testing the proposed model with an independent dataset those not included during analysis, results obtained from the proposed GP model are close enough to the real field data.

  7. Predicting chromium (VI) adsorption rate in the treatment of liquid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    The adsorption rate of chromium (VI) on commercial activated carbon during the ... time and initial chromium (VI) ion concentration. .... model, the separation factor r, according to Calvo et al (2001) cited .... Lead (II) and nickel (II) adsorption kinetics .... heavy metal by Talaromyces helicus: a trained fungus for copper and.

  8. Predicting chromium (VI) adsorption rate in the treatment of liquid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The adsorption rate of chromium (VI) on commercial activated carbon during the treatment of the flocculation effluent of liquid-phase oil-based drill-cuttings has been investigated in terms of contact time and initial chromium (VI) ion concentration. Homogenizing 1 g of the activated carbon with 100 ml of the flocculation ...

  9. Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  10. Thyroid hormones correlate with basal metabolic rate but not field metabolic rate in a wild bird species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg Welcker

    Full Text Available Thyroid hormones (TH are known to stimulate in vitro oxygen consumption of tissues in mammals and birds. Hence, in many laboratory studies a positive relationship between TH concentrations and basal metabolic rate (BMR has been demonstrated whereas evidence from species in the wild is scarce. Even though basal and field metabolic rates (FMR are often thought to be intrinsically linked it is still unknown whether a relationship between TH and FMR exists. Here we determine the relationship between the primary thyroid hormone triiodothyronine (T3 with both BMR and FMR in a wild bird species, the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla. As predicted we found a strong and positive relationship between plasma concentrations of T3 and both BMR and mass-independent BMR with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.36 to 0.60. In contrast there was no association of T3 levels with either whole-body or mass-independent FMR (R(2 =0.06 and 0.02, respectively. In accordance with in vitro studies our data suggests that TH play an important role in modulating BMR and may serve as a proxy for basal metabolism in wild birds. However, the lack of a relationship between TH and FMR indicates that levels of physical activity in kittiwakes are largely independent of TH concentrations and support recent studies that cast doubt on a direct linkage between BMR and FMR.

  11. Thyroid Hormones Correlate with Basal Metabolic Rate but Not Field Metabolic Rate in a Wild Bird Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welcker, Jorg; Chastel, Olivier; Gabrielsen, Geir W.; Guillaumin, Jerome; Kitaysky, Alexander S.; Speakman, John R.; Tremblay, Yann; Bech, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Thyroid hormones (TH) are known to stimulate in vitro oxygen consumption of tissues in mammals and birds. Hence, in many laboratory studies a positive relationship between TH concentrations and basal metabolic rate (BMR) has been demonstrated whereas evidence from species in the wild is scarce. Even though basal and field metabolic rates (FMR) are often thought to be intrinsically linked it is still unknown whether a relationship between TH and FMR exists. Here we determine the relationship between the primary thyroid hormone triiodothyronine (T3) with both BMR and FMR in a wild bird species, the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla). As predicted we found a strong and positive relationship between plasma concentrations of T3 and both BMR and mass-independent BMR with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.36 to 0.60. In contrast there was no association of T3 levels with either whole-body or mass-independent FMR (R2 = 0.06 and 0.02, respectively). In accordance with in vitro studies our data suggests that TH play an important role in modulating BMR and may serve as a proxy for basal metabolism in wild birds. However, the lack of a relationship between TH and FMR indicates that levels of physical activity in kittiwakes are largely independent of TH concentrations and support recent studies that cast doubt on a direct linkage between BMR and FMR. PMID:23437096

  12. Rate Predictions and Trigger/DAQ Resource Monitoring in ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Schaefer, D M; The ATLAS collaboration

    2012-01-01

    Since starting in 2010, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has pro- duced collisions at an ever increasing rate. The ATLAS experiment successfully records the collision data with high eciency and excel- lent data quality. Events are selected using a three-level trigger system, where each level makes a more re ned selection. The level-1 trigger (L1) consists of a custom-designed hardware trigger which seeds two higher software based trigger levels. Over 300 triggers compose a trig- ger menu which selects physics signatures such as electrons, muons, particle jets, etc. Each trigger consumes computing resources of the ATLAS trigger system and oine storage. The LHC instantaneous luminosity conditions, desired physics goals of the collaboration, and the limits of the trigger infrastructure determine the composition of the ATLAS trigger menu. We describe a trigger monitoring frame- work for computing the costs of individual trigger algorithms such as data request rates and CPU consumption. This framework has been used...

  13. Rating the Quality of Open Textbooks: How Reviewer and Text Characteristics Predict Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Lane; Ernst, David; Mason, Stacie

    2017-01-01

    Using data collected from peer reviews for Open Textbook Library titles, this paper explores questions about rating the quality of open textbooks. The five research questions addressed the relationship between textbook and reviewer characteristics and ratings. Although reviewers gave textbooks high ratings generally, reviewers identified…

  14. Empirical correlation for prediction of the elutriation rate constant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stojkovski Valentino

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available In vessels containing fluidized solids, the gas leaving carries some suspended particles. This flux of solids is called entrainment, E or carryover and the bulk density of solids on this leaving gas stream is called the holdup. For design we need to know the rate of this entrainment and the size distribution of these entrained particles Rim in relation to the size distribution in the bed, Rib, as well as the variation of both these quantities with gas and solids properties, gas flow rate, bed geometry and location of the leaving gas stream. Steady-state elutriation experiments have been done in a fluidized bed 0,2 m diameter by 2,94 m high freeboard with superficial gas velocities up to 1 m/s using solids ranging in mean size from 0,15 to 0,58 mm and with particle density 2660 kg/m3. When the fine and coarse particles were mixed, the total entrainment flux above the freeboard was increased. None of the published correlations for estimating the elutriation rate constant were useful. A new simple equation, which is developed on the base of experimental results and theory of dimensional analyses, is presented.

  15. Application of large computers for predicting the oil field production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philipp, W; Gunkel, W; Marsal, D

    1971-10-01

    The flank injection drive plays a dominant role in the exploitation of the BEB-oil fields. Therefore, 2-phase flow computer models were built up, adapted to a predominance of a single flow direction and combining a high accuracy of prediction with a low job time. Any case study starts with the partitioning of the reservoir into blocks. Then the statistics of the time-independent reservoir properties are analyzed by means of an IBM 360/25 unit. Using these results and the past production of oil, water and gas, a Fortran-program running on a CDC-3300 computer yields oil recoveries and the ratios of the relative permeabilities as a function of the local oil saturation for all blocks penetrated by mobile water. In order to assign kDwU/KDoU-functions to blocks not yet reached by the advancing water-front, correlation analysis is used to relate reservoir properties to kDwU/KDoU-functions. All these results are used as input into a CDC-660 Fortran program, allowing short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts as well as the handling of special problems.

  16. Seasonal field metabolic rates of American martens in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan H. Gilbert; Patrick A Zollner; Adam K. Green; John L. Wright

    2009-01-01

    We report on FMR of free-living American martens (Martes americana) in autumn and winter in northern Wisconsin. Mean body mass was significantly higher in males (1099 ± 43 [S.E.] g) than females (737 ± 28 g), with no significant difference by season. Daily mass change rates of martens did not differ from zero, and mass change rate...

  17. Does basal metabolic rate predict weight gain?12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthanont, Pimjai; Jensen, Michael D

    2016-01-01

    Background: Some previous studies have indicated that a low basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an independent predictor of future weight gain, but low rates of follow-up and highly select populations may limit the ability to generalize the results. Objective: We assessed whether adults with a low BMR gain more weight than do adults with a high BMR who are living in a typical Western environment. Design: We extracted BMR, body-composition, demographic, and laboratory data from electronic databases of 757 volunteers who were participating in our research protocols at the Mayo Clinic between 1995 and 2012. Research study volunteers were always weight stable, had no acute illnesses and no confounding medication use, and were nonsmokers. The top and bottom 15th percentiles of BMR, adjusted for fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass, age, and sex, were identified. Follow-up electronic medical record system data were available for 163 subjects, which allowed us to determine their subsequent weight changes for ≥3 y (mean: ∼9.7 y). Results: By definition, the BMR was different in the high-BMR group (2001 ± 317 kcal/d; n = 86) than in the low-BMR group (1510 ± 222 kcal/d; n = 77), but they were comparable with respect to age, body mass index, FFM, and fat mass. Rates of weight gain were not greater in the bottom BMR group (0.3 ± 1.0 kg/y) than in the top BMR group (0.5 ± 1.5 kg/y) (P = 0.17). Conclusion: Adults with low BMRs did not gain more weight than did adults with high BMRs, implying that habitual differences in food intake or activity counterbalance variations in BMR as a risk factor for weight gain in a typical Western population. PMID:27581474

  18. Dispersion relation and growth rate in a Cherenkov free electron laser: Finite axial magnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheiri, Golshad; Esmaeilzadeh, Mahdi

    2013-01-01

    A theoretical analysis is presented for dispersion relation and growth rate in a Cherenkov free electron laser with finite axial magnetic field. It is shown that the growth rate and the resonance frequency of Cherenkov free electron laser increase with increasing axial magnetic field for low axial magnetic fields, while for high axial magnetic fields, they go to a saturation value. The growth rate and resonance frequency saturation values are exactly the same as those for infinite axial magnetic field approximation. The effects of electron beam self-fields on growth rate are investigated, and it is shown that the growth rate decreases in the presence of self-fields. It is found that there is an optimum value for electron beam density and Lorentz relativistic factor at which the maximum growth rate can take place. Also, the effects of velocity spread of electron beam are studied and it is found that the growth rate decreases due to the electron velocity spread

  19. Age of acquisition predicts rate of lexical evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Padraic

    2014-12-01

    The processes taking place during language acquisition are proposed to influence language evolution. However, evidence demonstrating the link between language learning and language evolution is, at best, indirect, constituting studies of laboratory-based artificial language learning studies or computational simulations of diachronic change. In the current study, a direct link between acquisition and evolution is established, showing that for two hundred fundamental vocabulary items, the age at which words are acquired is a predictor of the rate at which they have changed in studies of language evolution. Early-acquired words are more salient and easier to process than late-acquired words, and these early-acquired words are also more stably represented within the community's language. Analysing the properties of these early-acquired words potentially provides insight into the origins of communication, highlighting features of words that have been ultra-conserved in language. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction of Mass Flow Rate in Supersonic Natural Gas Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Chuang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The mass flow rate of natural gas through the supersonic separator was numerically calculated by various cubic equations of state. The numerical results show that the compressibility factor and specific heat ratio for ideal gas law diverge remarkably from real gas models at a high inlet pressure. Simultaneously, the deviation of mass flow calculated by the ideal and real gas models reaches over 10 %. The difference increases with the lower of the inlet temperature regardless of the inlet pressure. A higher back pressure results in an earlier location of the shock wave. The pressure ratio of 0.72 is the first threshold to get the separator work normally. The second threshold is 0.95, in which case the whole flow is subsonic and cannot reach the choked state. The shock position moves upstream with the real gas model compared to the ideal gas law in the cyclonic separation section.

  1. Patient-rated health status predicts prognosis following percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stenting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Susanne S.; Versteeg, Henneke; Denollet, Johan

    2011-01-01

    In patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the paclitaxel-eluting stent, we examined whether patient-rated health status predicts adverse clinical events.......In patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the paclitaxel-eluting stent, we examined whether patient-rated health status predicts adverse clinical events....

  2. Failure Rate Prediction of Active Component Using PM Basis Database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, J. S.; Kim, H. W.; Park, J. S.; Jung, S. G.

    2011-01-01

    The safety security and efficient management of NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants) have been increased after the accident of TEPCO's Fukushima nuclear power stations. The needs for the safety and efficiency are becoming more important because about 90 percent of the NPPs all over the world are more than 20 operation years old. The preventive maintenance criteria need to be flexible, considering long-term development of the equipment performance and preventive maintenance. The PMBD (Preventive Maintenance Basis Database) program was widely used for optimization of the preventive maintenance criteria. PMBD program contains all kinds of failure mechanisms for each equipment that may occur in the power plant based on RCM(Reliability-Centered Maintenance) and numerically calculate the variation of reliability and failure rate based on PM interval changes. In this study, propriety evaluation of preventive maintenance task, cycle, technical basis for cost effective preventive maintenance strategy and an appropriate evaluation were suggested by the case application of PMBD for major components in the NPPs

  3. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  4. Particle deposition from aqueous suspensions in turbulent pipe flow - a comparison of observed deposition rates and predicted arrival rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodliffe, R.S.

    1979-11-01

    At the present time, there appear to be only four adequately controlled and characterised experimental studies of particle deposition from single phase water in turbulent pipe flow. These are used to illustrate the ranges of applicability of methods for predicting particle arrival rates at tube walls. Arrival rates are predicted from mass transfer correlations and the theory of Reeks and Skyrme (1976) when transport is limited by Brownian diffusion and inertial behaviour, respectively. The regimes in which finite particle size limits the application of these methods are defined and preliminary consideration is given to the conditions under which gravitational settling may make a contribution to deposition in vertically mounted tubes. (author)

  5. Anomalous electric field changes and high flash rate beneath a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In spite of many experimental and theoretical studies the relationships between storm dynamics, severe weather,and lightning activity have been least understood.Measurements of electric field made under a severe thunderstorm at a northeastern Indian station,Guwahati,India are reported. Lightning flash rate increases ...

  6. Predicting bias in perceived position using attention field models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, Barrie P; Paffen, Chris L E; Pas, Susan F Te; Dumoulin, Serge O

    2016-01-01

    Attention is the mechanism through which we select relevant information from our visual environment. We have recently demonstrated that attention attracts receptive fields across the visual hierarchy (Klein, Harvey, & Dumoulin, 2014). We captured this receptive field attraction using an attention

  7. EMPIRICAL PREDICTIONS FOR (SUB-)MILLIMETER LINE AND CONTINUUM DEEP FIELDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Da Cunha, Elisabete; Walter, Fabian; Decarli, Roberto; Rix, Hans-Walter [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Astronomie, Koenigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Bertoldi, Frank [Argelander Institute for Astronomy, University of Bonn, Auf dem Huegel 71, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Carilli, Chris [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, Pete V. Domenici Array Science Center, P.O. Box O, Socorro, NM 87801 (United States); Daddi, Emanuele; Elbaz, David; Sargent, Mark [Laboratoire AIM, CEA/DSM-CNRS-Universite Paris Diderot, Irfu/Service d' Astrophysique, CEA Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Ivison, Rob [UK Astronomy Technology Centre, Royal Observatory, Blackford Hill, Edinburgh EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Maiolino, Roberto [Cavendish Laboratory, University of Cambridge, 19 J.J. Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0HE (United Kingdom); Riechers, Dominik [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, MC 249-17, 1200 East California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Smail, Ian [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Weiss, Axel, E-mail: cunha@mpia.de [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Radioastronomie, Auf dem Huegel 69, D-53121 Bonn (Germany)

    2013-03-01

    Modern (sub-)millimeter/radio interferometers such as ALMA, JVLA, and the PdBI successor NOEMA will enable us to measure the dust and molecular gas emission from galaxies that have luminosities lower than the Milky Way, out to high redshifts and with unprecedented spatial resolution and sensitivity. This will provide new constraints on the star formation properties and gas reservoir in galaxies throughout cosmic times through dedicated deep field campaigns targeting the CO/[C II] lines and dust continuum emission in the (sub-)millimeter regime. In this paper, we present empirical predictions for such line and continuum deep fields. We base these predictions on the deepest available optical/near-infrared Advanced Camera for Surveys and NICMOS data on the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (over an area of about 12 arcmin{sup 2}). Using a physically motivated spectral energy distribution model, we fit the observed optical/near-infrared emission of 13,099 galaxies with redshifts up to z = 5, and obtain median-likelihood estimates of their stellar mass, star formation rate, dust attenuation, and dust luminosity. We combine the attenuated stellar spectra with a library of infrared emission models spanning a wide range of dust temperatures to derive statistical constraints on the dust emission in the infrared and (sub-)millimeter which are consistent with the observed optical/near-infrared emission in terms of energy balance. This allows us to estimate, for each galaxy, the (sub-)millimeter continuum flux densities in several ALMA, PdBI/NOEMA, and JVLA bands. As a consistency check, we verify that the 850 {mu}m number counts and extragalactic background light derived using our predictions are consistent with previous observations. Using empirical relations between the observed CO/[C II] line luminosities and the infrared luminosity of star-forming galaxies, we infer the luminosity of the CO(1-0) and [C II] lines from the estimated infrared luminosity of each galaxy in our sample

  8. Applications of the absolute reaction rate theory to biological responses in electric and magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brannen, J.P.; Wayland, J.R.

    1976-01-01

    This paper develops a theoretical foundation for the study of biological responses of electric and magnetic fields. The basis of the development is the absolute reaction rate theory and the effects of fields on reaction rates. A simple application to the response of Bacillus subtilis var niger in a microwave field is made. Potential areas of application are discussed

  9. Use of Pyranometers to Estimate PV Module Degradation Rates in the Field: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vignola, Frank; Peterson, Josh; Kessler, Rich; Mavromatakis, Fotis; Dooraghi, Mike; Sengupta, Manajit

    2016-08-01

    This paper describes a methodology that uses relative measurements to estimate the degradation rates of PV modules in the field. The importance of calibration and cleaning is illustrated. The number of years of field measurements needed to measure degradation rates with data from the field is cut in half using relative comparisons.

  10. Predictive hydrogeochemical modelling of bauxite residue sand in field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissmeier, Laurin; Barry, David A; Phillips, Ian R

    2011-07-15

    The suitability of residue sand (the coarse fraction remaining from Bayer's process of bauxite refining) for constructing the surface cover of closed bauxite residue storage areas was investigated. Specifically, its properties as a medium for plant growth are of interest to ensure residue sand can support a sustainable ecosystem following site closure. The geochemical evolution of the residue sand under field conditions, its plant nutrient status and soil moisture retention were studied by integrated modelling of geochemical and hydrological processes. For the parameterization of mineral reactions, amounts and reaction kinetics of the mineral phases natron, calcite, tricalcium aluminate, sodalite, muscovite and analcime were derived from measured acid neutralization curves. The effective exchange capacity for ion adsorption was measured using three independent exchange methods. The geochemical model, which accounts for mineral reactions, cation exchange and activity corrected solution speciation, was formulated in the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, and partially validated in a saturated-flow column experiment. For the integration of variably saturated flow with multi-component solute transport in heterogeneous 2D domains, a coupling of PHREEQC with the multi-purpose finite-element solver COMSOL was established. The integrated hydrogeochemical model was applied to predict water availability and quality in a vertical flow lysimeter and a cover design for a storage facility using measured time series of rainfall and evaporation from southwest Western Australia. In both scenarios the sand was fertigated and gypsum-amended. Results show poor long-term retention of fertilizer ions and buffering of the pH around 10 for more than 5 y of leaching. It was concluded that fertigation, gypsum amendment and rainfall leaching alone were insufficient to render the geochemical conditions of residue sand suitable for optimal plant growth within the given timeframe. The

  11. Theoretical predictions for spatially-focused heating of magnetic nanoparticles guided by magnetic particle imaging field gradients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dhavalikar, Rohan [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Florida, 1030 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Rinaldi, Carlos, E-mail: carlos.rinaldi@bme.ufl.edu [Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Florida, 1030 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); J. Crayton Pruitt Family Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Florida, 1275 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Magnetic nanoparticles in alternating magnetic fields (AMFs) transfer some of the field's energy to their surroundings in the form of heat, a property that has attracted significant attention for use in cancer treatment through hyperthermia and in developing magnetic drug carriers that can be actuated to release their cargo externally using magnetic fields. To date, most work in this field has focused on the use of AMFs that actuate heat release by nanoparticles over large regions, without the ability to select specific nanoparticle-loaded regions for heating while leaving other nanoparticle-loaded regions unaffected. In parallel, magnetic particle imaging (MPI) has emerged as a promising approach to image the distribution of magnetic nanoparticle tracers in vivo, with sub-millimeter spatial resolution. The underlying principle in MPI is the application of a selection magnetic field gradient, which defines a small region of low bias field, superimposed with an AMF (of lower frequency and amplitude than those normally used to actuate heating by the nanoparticles) to obtain a signal which is proportional to the concentration of particles in the region of low bias field. Here we extend previous models for estimating the energy dissipation rates of magnetic nanoparticles in uniform AMFs to provide theoretical predictions of how the selection magnetic field gradient used in MPI can be used to selectively actuate heating by magnetic nanoparticles in the low bias field region of the selection magnetic field gradient. Theoretical predictions are given for the spatial decay in energy dissipation rate under magnetic field gradients representative of those that can be achieved with current MPI technology. These results underscore the potential of combining MPI and higher amplitude/frequency actuation AMFs to achieve selective magnetic fluid hyperthermia (MFH) guided by MPI. - Highlights: • SAR predictions based on a field-dependent magnetization relaxation model.

  12. Field migration rates of tidal meanders recapitulate fluvial morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finotello, Alvise; Lanzoni, Stefano; Ghinassi, Massimiliano; Marani, Marco; Rinaldo, Andrea; D'Alpaos, Andrea

    2018-02-01

    The majority of tidal channels display marked meandering features. Despite their importance in oil-reservoir formation and tidal landscape morphology, questions remain on whether tidal-meander dynamics could be understood in terms of fluvial processes and theory. Key differences suggest otherwise, like the periodic reversal of landscape-forming tidal flows and the widely accepted empirical notion that tidal meanders are stable landscape features, in stark contrast with their migrating fluvial counterparts. On the contrary, here we show that, once properly normalized, observed migration rates of tidal and fluvial meanders are remarkably similar. Key to normalization is the role of tidal channel width that responds to the strong spatial gradients of landscape-forming flow rates and tidal prisms. We find that migration dynamics of tidal meanders agree with nonlinear theories for river meander evolution. Our results challenge the conventional view of tidal channels as stable landscape features and suggest that meandering tidal channels recapitulate many fluvial counterparts owing to large gradients of tidal prisms across meander wavelengths.

  13. Field migration rates of tidal meanders recapitulate fluvial morphodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finotello, Alvise; Lanzoni, Stefano; Ghinassi, Massimiliano; Marani, Marco; Rinaldo, Andrea; D'Alpaos, Andrea

    2018-02-13

    The majority of tidal channels display marked meandering features. Despite their importance in oil-reservoir formation and tidal landscape morphology, questions remain on whether tidal-meander dynamics could be understood in terms of fluvial processes and theory. Key differences suggest otherwise, like the periodic reversal of landscape-forming tidal flows and the widely accepted empirical notion that tidal meanders are stable landscape features, in stark contrast with their migrating fluvial counterparts. On the contrary, here we show that, once properly normalized, observed migration rates of tidal and fluvial meanders are remarkably similar. Key to normalization is the role of tidal channel width that responds to the strong spatial gradients of landscape-forming flow rates and tidal prisms. We find that migration dynamics of tidal meanders agree with nonlinear theories for river meander evolution. Our results challenge the conventional view of tidal channels as stable landscape features and suggest that meandering tidal channels recapitulate many fluvial counterparts owing to large gradients of tidal prisms across meander wavelengths. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  14. A physical probabilistic model to predict failure rates in buried PVC pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, P.; Burn, S.; Moglia, M.; Gould, S.

    2007-01-01

    For older water pipeline materials such as cast iron and asbestos cement, future pipe failure rates can be extrapolated from large volumes of existing historical failure data held by water utilities. However, for newer pipeline materials such as polyvinyl chloride (PVC), only limited failure data exists and confident forecasts of future pipe failures cannot be made from historical data alone. To solve this problem, this paper presents a physical probabilistic model, which has been developed to estimate failure rates in buried PVC pipelines as they age. The model assumes that under in-service operating conditions, crack initiation can occur from inherent defects located in the pipe wall. Linear elastic fracture mechanics theory is used to predict the time to brittle fracture for pipes with internal defects subjected to combined internal pressure and soil deflection loading together with through-wall residual stress. To include uncertainty in the failure process, inherent defect size is treated as a stochastic variable, and modelled with an appropriate probability distribution. Microscopic examination of fracture surfaces from field failures in Australian PVC pipes suggests that the 2-parameter Weibull distribution can be applied. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to estimate lifetime probability distributions for pipes with internal defects, subjected to typical operating conditions. As with inherent defect size, the 2-parameter Weibull distribution is shown to be appropriate to model uncertainty in predicted pipe lifetime. The Weibull hazard function for pipe lifetime is then used to estimate the expected failure rate (per pipe length/per year) as a function of pipe age. To validate the model, predicted failure rates are compared to aggregated failure data from 17 UK water utilities obtained from the United Kingdom Water Industry Research (UKWIR) National Mains Failure Database. In the absence of actual operating pressure data in the UKWIR database, typical

  15. A Comparison of the Predicted Tube Plugging Rate for Alloy 600HTMA Steam Generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boo, Myung Hwan; Kang, Yong Seok [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-10-15

    To manage components that are used in long term operations such as steam generation, it is important to know the tube plugging rate, which can cause the performance degradation. The life of components can be predicted by the method using determinism and probability theory. With a method using probability theory, damage prediction of tube is possible. In this study, damage prediction for steam generation (SG) tube is performed using Weibull distribution and predicted plugging rate (life) is compared with the simple sum plugging number and case by case (failure cause) plugging number

  16. Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vucetich, John A; Hebblewhite, Mark; Smith, Douglas W; Peterson, Rolf O

    2011-11-01

    1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted by the ratio of predator-to-prey. Kill rate is also a poor predictor of prey growth rate. However, PR and ratio of predator-to-prey each explained significant portions of variation in prey growth rate for two of the three study sites. 5. Our analyses offer two general insights. First, Isle Royale, Banff and Yellowstone are similar insomuch as they all include wolves preying on large ungulates. However, they also differ in species diversity of predator and prey communities, exploitation by humans and the role of dispersal. Even with the benefit of our analysis, it remains difficult to judge whether to be more impressed by the similarities or differences. This difficulty nicely illustrates a fundamental property of ecological

  17. Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

    2018-05-01

    The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

  18. Prediction of dose and field mapping around a shielded plutonium fuel fabrication glovebox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strode, J.N.; Soldat, K.L.; Brackenbush, L.W.

    1984-01-01

    Westinghouse Hanford Company, as the Department of Energy's (DOE) prime contractor for the operation of the Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory (HEDL), is responsible for the development of the Secure Automated Fabrication (SAF) Line which is to be installed in the recently constructed Fuels and Materials Examination Facility (FMEF). The SAF Line will fabricate mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel pins for the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) at an annual throughput rate of six (6) metric tons (MT) of MOX. The SAF Line will also demonstrate the automated manufacture of fuel pins on a production-scale. This paper describes some of the techniques used to reduce personnel exposure on the SAF Line, as well as the prediction and field mapping of doses from a shielded fuel fabrication glovebox. Tables are also presented from which exposure rate estimates can be made for plutonium recovered from fuels having different isotopic compositions as a result of varied burnup

  19. Useful field of view predicts driving in the presence of distracters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Joanne M; Chaparro, Alex; Lacherez, Philippe; Hickson, Louise

    2012-04-01

    The Useful Field of View (UFOV) test has been shown to be highly effective in predicting crash risk among older adults. An important question which we examined in this study is whether this association is due to the ability of the UFOV to predict difficulties in attention-demanding driving situations that involve either visual or auditory distracters. Participants included 92 community-living adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.4 years; range 65-88 years) who completed all three subtests of the UFOV involving assessment of visual processing speed (subtest 1), divided attention (subtest 2), and selective attention (subtest 3); driving safety risk was also classified using the UFOV scoring system. Driving performance was assessed separately on a closed-road circuit while driving under three conditions: no distracters, visual distracters, and auditory distracters. Driving outcome measures included road sign recognition, hazard detection, gap perception, time to complete the course, and performance on the distracter tasks. Those rated as safe on the UFOV (safety rating categories 1 and 2), as well as those responding faster than the recommended cut-off on the selective attention subtest (350 msec), performed significantly better in terms of overall driving performance and also experienced less interference from distracters. Of the three UFOV subtests, the selective attention subtest best predicted overall driving performance in the presence of distracters. Older adults who were rated as higher risk on the UFOV, particularly on the selective attention subtest, demonstrated poorest driving performance in the presence of distracters. This finding suggests that the selective attention subtest of the UFOV may be differentially more effective in predicting driving difficulties in situations of divided attention which are commonly associated with crashes.

  20. ATLAS trigger operations: Monitoring with “Xmon” rate prediction system

    CERN Document Server

    Aukerman, Andrew Todd; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    We present the operations and online monitoring with the “Xmon” rate prediction system for the trigger system at the ATLAS Experiment. A two-level trigger system reduces the LHC’s bunch-crossing rate, 40 MHz at design capacity, to an average recording rate of about 1 kHz, while maintaining a high efficiency of selecting events of interest. The Xmon system uses the luminosity value to predict trigger rates that are, in turn, compared with incoming rates. The predictions rely on past runs to parameterize the luminosity dependency of the event rate for a trigger algorithm. Some examples are given to illustrate the performance of the tool during recent operations.

  1. Predicted Rates of Secondary Malignancies From Proton Versus Photon Radiation Therapy for Stage I Seminoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simone, Charles B., E-mail: csimone@alumni.upenn.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital of University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Radiation Oncology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (United States); Kramer, Kevin [Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Rockville, Maryland (United States); O' Meara, William P. [Division of Radiation Oncology, National Naval Medical Center, Bethesda, Maryland (United States); Bekelman, Justin E. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital of University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Belard, Arnaud [Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Rockville, Maryland (United States); McDonough, James [Department of Radiation Oncology, Hospital of University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); O' Connell, John [Radiation Oncology Service, Walter Reed Army Medical Center, Washington, DC (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Photon radiotherapy has been the standard adjuvant treatment for stage I seminoma. Single-dose carboplatin therapy and observation have emerged as alternative options due to concerns for acute toxicities and secondary malignancies from radiation. In this institutional review board-approved study, we compared photon and proton radiotherapy for stage I seminoma and the predicted rates of excess secondary malignancies for both treatment modalities. Methods and Material: Computed tomography images from 10 consecutive patients with stage I seminoma were used to quantify dosimetric differences between photon and proton therapies. Structures reported to be at increased risk for secondary malignancies and in-field critical structures were contoured. Reported models of organ-specific radiation-induced cancer incidence rates based on organ equivalent dose were used to determine the excess absolute risk of secondary malignancies. Calculated values were compared with tumor registry reports of excess secondary malignancies among testicular cancer survivors. Results: Photon and proton plans provided comparable target volume coverage. Proton plans delivered significantly lower mean doses to all examined normal tissues, except for the kidneys. The greatest absolute reduction in mean dose was observed for the stomach (119 cGy for proton plans vs. 768 cGy for photon plans; p < 0.0001). Significantly more excess secondary cancers per 10,000 patients/year were predicted for photon radiation than for proton radiation to the stomach (4.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.22-5.01), large bowel (0.81; 95% CI, 0.39-1.01), and bladder (0.03; 95% CI, 0.01-0.58), while no difference was demonstrated for radiation to the pancreas (0.02; 95% CI, -0.01-0.06). Conclusions: For patients with stage I seminoma, proton radiation therapy reduced the predicted secondary cancer risk compared with photon therapy. We predict a reduction of one additional secondary cancer for every 50 patients

  2. Development of a QTL-environment-based predictive model for node addition rate in common bean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Gezan, Salvador A; Eduardo Vallejos, C; Jones, James W; Boote, Kenneth J; Clavijo-Michelangeli, Jose A; Bhakta, Mehul; Osorno, Juan M; Rao, Idupulapati; Beebe, Stephen; Roman-Paoli, Elvin; Gonzalez, Abiezer; Beaver, James; Ricaurte, Jaumer; Colbert, Raphael; Correll, Melanie J

    2017-05-01

    This work reports the effects of the genetic makeup, the environment and the genotype by environment interactions for node addition rate in an RIL population of common bean. This information was used to build a predictive model for node addition rate. To select a plant genotype that will thrive in targeted environments it is critical to understand the genotype by environment interaction (GEI). In this study, multi-environment QTL analysis was used to characterize node addition rate (NAR, node day - 1 ) on the main stem of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L). This analysis was carried out with field data of 171 recombinant inbred lines that were grown at five sites (Florida, Puerto Rico, 2 sites in Colombia, and North Dakota). Four QTLs (Nar1, Nar2, Nar3 and Nar4) were identified, one of which had significant QTL by environment interactions (QEI), that is, Nar2 with temperature. Temperature was identified as the main environmental factor affecting NAR while day length and solar radiation played a minor role. Integration of sites as covariates into a QTL mixed site-effect model, and further replacing the site component with explanatory environmental covariates (i.e., temperature, day length and solar radiation) yielded a model that explained 73% of the phenotypic variation for NAR with root mean square error of 16.25% of the mean. The QTL consistency and stability was examined through a tenfold cross validation with different sets of genotypes and these four QTLs were always detected with 50-90% probability. The final model was evaluated using leave-one-site-out method to assess the influence of site on node addition rate. These analyses provided a quantitative measure of the effects on NAR of common beans exerted by the genetic makeup, the environment and their interactions.

  3. Roll paper pilot. [mathematical model for predicting pilot rating of aircraft in roll task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, F. R.; Dillow, J. D.; Hannen, R. A.

    1973-01-01

    A mathematical model for predicting the pilot rating of an aircraft in a roll task is described. The model includes: (1) the lateral-directional aircraft equations of motion; (2) a stochastic gust model; (3) a pilot model with two free parameters; and (4) a pilot rating expression that is a function of rms roll angle and the pilot lead time constant. The pilot gain and lead time constant are selected to minimize the pilot rating expression. The pilot parameters are then adjusted to provide a 20% stability margin and the adjusted pilot parameters are used to compute a roll paper pilot rating of the aircraft/gust configuration. The roll paper pilot rating was computed for 25 aircraft/gust configurations. A range of actual ratings from 2 to 9 were encountered and the roll paper pilot ratings agree quite well with the actual ratings. In addition there is good correlation between predicted and measured rms roll angle.

  4. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum negative rate of change in New England based on a...

  5. Prediction of Geological Subsurfaces Based on Gaussian Random Field Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, Petter

    1997-12-31

    During the sixties, random functions became practical tools for predicting ore reserves with associated precision measures in the mining industry. This was the start of the geostatistical methods called kriging. These methods are used, for example, in petroleum exploration. This thesis reviews the possibilities for using Gaussian random functions in modelling of geological subsurfaces. It develops methods for including many sources of information and observations for precise prediction of the depth of geological subsurfaces. The simple properties of Gaussian distributions make it possible to calculate optimal predictors in the mean square sense. This is done in a discussion of kriging predictors. These predictors are then extended to deal with several subsurfaces simultaneously. It is shown how additional velocity observations can be used to improve predictions. The use of gradient data and even higher order derivatives are also considered and gradient data are used in an example. 130 refs., 44 figs., 12 tabs.

  6. Semantic Factors Predict the Rate of Lexical Replacement of Content Words

    OpenAIRE

    Vejdemo, Susanne; H?rberg, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The rate of lexical replacement estimates the diachronic stability of word forms on the basis of how frequently a proto-language word is replaced or retained in its daughter languages. Lexical replacement rate has been shown to be highly related to word class and word frequency. In this paper, we argue that content words and function words behave differently with respect to lexical replacement rate, and we show that semantic factors predict the lexical replacement rate of content words. For t...

  7. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  8. A Prediction Model for Community Colleges Using Graduation Rate as the Performance Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosai, Susan

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis a prediction model using graduation rate as the performance indicator is obtained for community colleges for three cohort years, 2003, 2004, and 2005 in the states of California, Florida, and Michigan. Multiple Regression analysis, using an aggregate of seven predictor variables, was employed in determining this prediction model.…

  9. Prediction of creamy mouthfeel based on texture attribute ratings of dairy desserts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weenen, H.; Jellema, R.H.; Wijk, de R.A.

    2006-01-01

    A quantitative predictive model for creamy mouthfeel in dairy desserts was developed, using PLS multivariate analysis of texture attributes. Based on 40 experimental custard desserts, a good correlation was obtained between measured and predicted creamy mouthfeel ratings. The model was validated by

  10. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  11. Prediction of the dollar to the ruble rate. A system-theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodachev, Sergey M.

    2017-07-01

    Proposed a simple state-space model of dollar rate formation based on changes in oil prices and some mechanisms of money transfer between monetary and stock markets. Comparison of predictions by means of input-output model and state-space model is made. It concludes that with proper use of statistical data (Kalman filter) the second approach provides more adequate predictions of the dollar rate.

  12. Field-level validation of a CLIMEX model for Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) using estimated larval growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legaspi, Benjamin C; Legaspi, Jesusa Crisostomo

    2010-04-01

    Invasive pests, such as the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), have not reached equilibrium distributions and present unique opportunities to validate models by comparing predicted distributions with eventual realized geographic ranges. A CLIMEX model was developed for C. cactorum. Model validation was attempted at the global scale by comparing worldwide distribution against known occurrence records and at the field scale by comparing CLIMEX "growth indices" against field measurements of larval growth. Globally, CLIMEX predicted limited potential distribution in North America (from the Caribbean Islands to Florida, Texas, and Mexico), Africa (South Africa and parts of the eastern coast), southern India, parts of Southeast Asia, and the northeastern coast of Australia. Actual records indicate the moth has been found in the Caribbean (Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cayman Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands), Cuba, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, southern Africa, Kenya, Mexico, and Australia. However, the model did not predict that distribution would extend from India to the west into Pakistan. In the United States, comparison of the predicted and actual distribution patterns suggests that the moth may be close to its predicted northern range along the Atlantic coast. Parts of Texas and most of Mexico may be vulnerable to geographic range expansion of C. cactorum. Larval growth rates in the field were estimated by measuring differences in head capsules and body lengths of larval cohorts at weekly intervals. Growth indices plotted against measures of larval growth rates compared poorly when CLIMEX was run using the default historical weather data. CLIMEX predicted a single period conducive to insect development, in contrast to the three generations observed in the field. Only time and more complete records will tell whether C. cactorum will extend its geographical distribution to regions predicted by the CLIMEX model. In terms

  13. Evaporation Rate of Water as a Function of a Magnetic Field and Field Gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Shang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The effect of magnetic fields on water is still a highly controversial topic despite the vast amount of research devoted to this topic in past decades. Enhanced water evaporation in a magnetic field, however, is less disputed. The underlying mechanism for this phenomenon has been investigated in previous studies. In this paper, we present an investigation of the evaporation of water in a large gradient magnetic field. The evaporation of pure water at simulated gravity positions (0 gravity level (ab. g, 1 g, 1.56 g and 1.96 g in a superconducting magnet was compared with that in the absence of the magnetic field. The results showed that the evaporation of water was indeed faster in the magnetic field than in the absence of the magnetic field. Furthermore, the amount of water evaporation differed depending on the position of the sample within the magnetic field. In particular, the evaporation at 0 g was clearly faster than that at other positions. The results are discussed from the point of view of the evaporation surface area of the water/air interface and the convection induced by the magnetization force due to the difference in the magnetic susceptibility of water vapor and the surrounding air.

  14. Evaporation rate of water as a function of a magnetic field and field gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yun-Zhu; Yin, Da-Chuan; Cao, Hui-Ling; Shi, Jian-Yu; Zhang, Chen-Yan; Liu, Yong-Ming; Huang, Huan-Huan; Liu, Yue; Wang, Yan; Guo, Wei-Hong; Qian, Ai-Rong; Shang, Peng

    2012-12-11

    The effect of magnetic fields on water is still a highly controversial topic despite the vast amount of research devoted to this topic in past decades. Enhanced water evaporation in a magnetic field, however, is less disputed. The underlying mechanism for this phenomenon has been investigated in previous studies. In this paper, we present an investigation of the evaporation of water in a large gradient magnetic field. The evaporation of pure water at simulated gravity positions (0 gravity level (ab. g), 1 g, 1.56 g and 1.96 g) in a superconducting magnet was compared with that in the absence of the magnetic field. The results showed that the evaporation of water was indeed faster in the magnetic field than in the absence of the magnetic field. Furthermore, the amount of water evaporation differed depending on the position of the sample within the magnetic field. In particular, the evaporation at 0 g was clearly faster than that at other positions. The results are discussed from the point of view of the evaporation surface area of the water/air interface and the convection induced by the magnetization force due to the difference in the magnetic susceptibility of water vapor and the surrounding air.

  15. Evaporation Rate of Water as a Function of a Magnetic Field and Field Gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yun-Zhu; Yin, Da-Chuan; Cao, Hui-Ling; Shi, Jian-Yu; Zhang, Chen-Yan; Liu, Yong-Ming; Huang, Huan-Huan; Liu, Yue; Wang, Yan; Guo, Wei-Hong; Qian, Ai-Rong; Shang, Peng

    2012-01-01

    The effect of magnetic fields on water is still a highly controversial topic despite the vast amount of research devoted to this topic in past decades. Enhanced water evaporation in a magnetic field, however, is less disputed. The underlying mechanism for this phenomenon has been investigated in previous studies. In this paper, we present an investigation of the evaporation of water in a large gradient magnetic field. The evaporation of pure water at simulated gravity positions (0 gravity level (ab. g), 1 g, 1.56 g and 1.96 g) in a superconducting magnet was compared with that in the absence of the magnetic field. The results showed that the evaporation of water was indeed faster in the magnetic field than in the absence of the magnetic field. Furthermore, the amount of water evaporation differed depending on the position of the sample within the magnetic field. In particular, the evaporation at 0 g was clearly faster than that at other positions. The results are discussed from the point of view of the evaporation surface area of the water/air interface and the convection induced by the magnetization force due to the difference in the magnetic susceptibility of water vapor and the surrounding air. PMID:23443127

  16. Intertidal beach slope predictions compared to field data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, A.J.; Plant, N.G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a test of a very simple model for predicting beach slope changes. The model assumes that these changes are a function of both the incident wave conditions and the beach slope itself. Following other studies, we hypothesized that the beach slope evolves towards an equilibrium

  17. Prediction of the glyphosate sorption coefficient across two loamy agricultural fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paradelo Pérez, Marcos; Norgaard, Trine; Moldrup, Per

    2015-01-01

    , suggesting that different properties control glyphosate sorption in different locations and at different scales of analysis. Better predictions were obtained for the best-four set for the field in Estrup (R2 = 0.87) and for both fields (R2 = 0.70), while the field in Silstrup showed a lower predictability (R......2 = 0.36). Possibly, the low predictability for the field in Silstrup originated from opposing gradients in clay and oxalate-extractable Fe across the field. Also, whereas a lower clay content in Estrup may be the limiting variable for glyphosate sorption, the field in Silstrup has a higher clay...... sorption coefficient, Kd, from easily measurable soil properties in two loamy, agricultural fields in Denmark: Estrup and Silstrup. Forty-five soil samples in Estrup and 65 in Silstrup were collected fromthe surface in a rectangular grid of 15 × 15-mfromeach field, and selected soil properties...

  18. Prediction of Equilibrium States of Kinematic and Thermal Fields in Homogeneous Turbulence Submitted To the Rotation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chebbi, Besma; Bouzaiane, Mounir; Lili, Taieb

    2009-01-01

    In this work, effects of rotation on the evolution of kinematic and thermal fields in homogeneous sheared turbulence are investigated using second order closure modeling. The Launder-Reece-Ro di models, the Speziale-Sarkar-Gatski model and the Shih-Lumley models are retained for pressure-strain correlation and pressure-temperature correlation. Whereas classic models are retained for time evolution equations of kinematic and thermal dissipation rates. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method is used to resolve three non linear differential systems obtained after modeling. The numerical integration is carried out separately for several values of the dimensionless rotation number R equal to 0, 0.25 and 0.5. The obtained results are compared to the recent results of Direct Numerical Simulations of G.Brethouwer. The results have confirmed the asymptotic equilibrium behaviors of kinematic and thermal dimensionless parameters. Furthermore they have shown that rotation affects not only kinematic field but also thermal field. The coupling between the Speziale-Sarkar-Gatski model and the Launder-Reece-Rodi model is of a big contribution on the prediction of kinematic and thermal fields

  19. Publication Growth in Biological Sub-Fields: Patterns, Predictability and Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pautasso

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Biologists are producing ever-increasing quantities of papers. The question arises of whether current rates of increase in scientific outputs are sustainable in the long term. I studied this issue using publication data from the Web of Science (1991–2010 for 18 biological sub-fields. In the majority of cases, an exponential regression explains more variation than a linear one in the number of papers published each year as a function of publication year. Exponential growth in publication numbers is clearly not sustainable. About 75% of the variation in publication growth among biological sub-fields over the two studied decades can be predicted by publication data from the first six years. Currently trendy fields such as structural biology, neuroscience and biomaterials cannot be expected to carry on growing at the current pace, because in a few decades they would produce more papers than the whole of biology combined. Synthetic and systems biology are problematic from the point of view of knowledge dissemination, because in these fields more than 80% of existing papers have been published over the last five years. The evidence presented here casts a shadow on how sustainable the recent increase in scientific publications can be in the long term.

  20. Estimating the magnitude of prediction uncertainties for field-scale P loss models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, an uncertainty analysis for the Annual P Loss Estima...

  1. The practice of prediction: What can ecologists learn from applied, ecology-related fields?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennekamp, Frank; Adamson, Matthew; Petchey, Owen L; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Aguiar, Maira; Kooi, Bob W.; Botkin, Daniel B.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2017-01-01

    The pervasive influence of human induced global environmental change affects biodiversity across the globe, and there is great uncertainty as to how the biosphere will react on short and longer time scales. To adapt to what the future holds and to manage the impacts of global change, scientists need to predict the expected effects with some confidence and communicate these predictions to policy makers. However, recent reviews found that we currently lack a clear understanding of how predictable ecology is, with views seeing it as mostly unpredictable to potentially predictable, at least over short time frames. However, in applied, ecology-related fields predictions are more commonly formulated and reported, as well as evaluated in hindsight, potentially allowing one to define baselines of predictive proficiency in these fields. We searched the literature for representative case studies in these fields and collected information about modeling approaches, target variables of prediction, predictive proficiency achieved, as well as the availability of data to parameterize predictive models. We find that some fields such as epidemiology achieve high predictive proficiency, but even in the more predictive fields proficiency is evaluated in different ways. Both phenomenological and mechanistic approaches are used in most fields, but differences are often small, with no clear superiority of one approach over the other. Data availability is limiting in most fields, with long-term studies being rare and detailed data for parameterizing mechanistic models being in short supply. We suggest that ecologists adopt a more rigorous approach to report and assess predictive proficiency, and embrace the challenges of real world decision making to strengthen the practice of prediction in ecology.

  2. Prediction on corrosion rate of pipe in nuclear power system based on optimized grey theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Chen Dengke; Jiang Wei

    2007-01-01

    For the prediction of corrosion rate of pipe in nuclear power system, the pre- diction error from the grey theory is greater, so a new method, optimized grey theory was presented in the paper. A comparison among predicted results from present and other methods was carried out, and it is seem that optimized grey theory is correct and effective for the prediction of corrosion rate of pipe in nuclear power system, and it provides a fundamental basis for the maintenance of pipe in nuclear power system. (authors)

  3. Predicting Individual Trip Destinations With Artificial Potential Fields.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zonta, A.; Smit, S.K.; Haasdijk, Evert

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a method to model the intended destination of a subject in real time, based on a trace of position information and prior knowledge of possible destinations. In contrast to most work in this field, it does so without the need for prior analysis of habitual travel patterns. The

  4. Impatience and uncertainty : Experimental decisions predict adolescents' field behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutter, M.; Kocher, M.G.; Rützler, D.; Trautmann, S.T.

    2013-01-01

    We study risk attitudes, ambiguity attitudes, and time preferences of 661 children and adolescents, aged ten to eighteen years, in an incentivized experiment and relate experimental choices to field behavior. Experimental measures of impatience are found to be significant predictors of

  5. PREDICTING FIELD PERFORMANCE OF HERBACEOUS SPECIES FOR PHYTOREMEDIATION OF PERCHLORATE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Results of these short-term experiments coupled with ecological knowledge of the nine herbaceous plant species tested suggest that several species may by successful in on-site remediation of perchlorate. The two wetland species which appear to be most suitable for field experimen...

  6. Kernel-Correlated Lévy Field Driven Forward Rate and Application to Derivative Pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bo Lijun; Wang Yongjin; Yang Xuewei

    2013-01-01

    We propose a term structure of forward rates driven by a kernel-correlated Lévy random field under the HJM framework. The kernel-correlated Lévy random field is composed of a kernel-correlated Gaussian random field and a centered Poisson random measure. We shall give a criterion to preclude arbitrage under the risk-neutral pricing measure. As applications, an interest rate derivative with general payoff functional is priced under this pricing measure

  7. Kernel-Correlated Levy Field Driven Forward Rate and Application to Derivative Pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bo Lijun [Xidian University, Department of Mathematics (China); Wang Yongjin [Nankai University, School of Business (China); Yang Xuewei, E-mail: xwyangnk@yahoo.com.cn [Nanjing University, School of Management and Engineering (China)

    2013-08-01

    We propose a term structure of forward rates driven by a kernel-correlated Levy random field under the HJM framework. The kernel-correlated Levy random field is composed of a kernel-correlated Gaussian random field and a centered Poisson random measure. We shall give a criterion to preclude arbitrage under the risk-neutral pricing measure. As applications, an interest rate derivative with general payoff functional is priced under this pricing measure.

  8. Harnessing atomistic simulations to predict the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saroukhani, S.; Nguyen, L. D.; Leung, K. W. K.; Singh, C. V.; Warner, D. H.

    2016-05-01

    Predicting the rate at which dislocations overcome obstacles is key to understanding the microscopic features that govern the plastic flow of modern alloys. In this spirit, the current manuscript examines the rate at which an edge dislocation overcomes an obstacle in aluminum. Predictions were made using different popular variants of Harmonic Transition State Theory (HTST) and compared to those of direct Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. The HTST predictions were found to be grossly inaccurate due to the large entropy barrier associated with the dislocation-obstacle interaction. Considering the importance of finite temperature effects, the utility of the Finite Temperature String (FTS) method was then explored. While this approach was found capable of identifying a prominent reaction tube, it was not capable of computing the free energy profile along the tube. Lastly, the utility of the Transition Interface Sampling (TIS) approach was explored, which does not need a free energy profile and is known to be less reliant on the choice of reaction coordinate. The TIS approach was found capable of accurately predicting the rate, relative to direct MD simulations. This finding was utilized to examine the temperature and load dependence of the dislocation-obstacle interaction in a simple periodic cell configuration. An attractive rate prediction approach combining TST and simple continuum models is identified, and the strain rate sensitivity of individual dislocation obstacle interactions is predicted.

  9. Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

    2016-01-01

    An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of Corrosion Rate Prediction Models Utilized for Reinforced Concrete Affected by Chloride

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siamphukdee, Kanjana; Collins, Frank; Zou, Roger

    2013-06-01

    Chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is one of the major causes of premature deterioration in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Given the high maintenance and replacement costs, accurate modeling of RC deterioration is indispensable for ensuring the optimal allocation of limited economic resources. Since corrosion rate is one of the major factors influencing the rate of deterioration, many predictive models exist. However, because the existing models use very different sets of input parameters, the choice of model for RC deterioration is made difficult. Although the factors affecting corrosion rate are frequently reported in the literature, there is no published quantitative study on the sensitivity of predicted corrosion rate to the various input parameters. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for nine selected corrosion rate prediction models. Three different methods of analysis are used to determine and compare the sensitivity of corrosion rate to various input parameters: (i) univariate regression analysis, (ii) multivariate regression analysis, and (iii) sensitivity index. The results from the analysis have quantitatively verified that the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement bars in RC structures is highly sensitive to corrosion duration time, concrete resistivity, and concrete chloride content. These important findings establish that future empirical models for predicting corrosion rate of RC should carefully consider and incorporate these input parameters.

  11. Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

    2018-01-01

    This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

  12. Predicting higher education graduation rates from institutional characteristics and resource allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Florence A. Hamrick; John H. Schuh; Mack C. Shelley

    2004-01-01

    This study incorporated institutional characteristics (e.g., Carnegie type, selectivity) and resource allocations (e.g., instructional expenditures, student affairs expenditures) into a statistical model to predict undergraduate graduation rates. Instructional expenditures, library expenditures, and a number of institutional classification variables were significant predictors of graduation rates. Based on these results, recommendations as well as warranted cautions are included about allocat...

  13. Model for the evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A model has been derived for evaluation and prediction of production rate of sinter machine operating on vertical mode. The quadratic model expressed as: P = 0.4395 V – 0.0526 V2 + 0.54, showed that the production rate of the sinter machine was dependent on the vertical sintering height. The maximum deviation of the ...

  14. Modeling transducer impulse responses for predicting calibrated pressure pulses with the ultrasound simulation program Field II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten

    2010-01-01

    FIELD II is a simulation software capable of predicting the field pressure in front of transducers having any complicated geometry. A calibrated prediction with this program is, however, dependent on an exact voltage-to-surface acceleration impulse response of the transducer. Such impulse response...... is not calculated by FIELD II. This work investigates the usability of combining a one-dimensional multilayer transducer modeling principle with the FIELD II software. Multilayer here refers to a transducer composed of several material layers. Measurements of pressure and current from Pz27 piezoceramic disks...... transducer model and the FIELD II software in combination give good agreement with measurements....

  15. Predicting higher education graduation rates from institutional characteristics and resource allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florence A. Hamrick

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available This study incorporated institutional characteristics (e.g., Carnegie type, selectivity and resource allocations (e.g., instructional expenditures, student affairs expenditures into a statistical model to predict undergraduate graduation rates. Instructional expenditures, library expenditures, and a number of institutional classification variables were significant predictors of graduation rates. Based on these results, recommendations as well as warranted cautions are included about allocating academic financial resources to optimize graduation rates

  16. Hybrid Prediction Model of the Temperature Field of a Motorized Spindle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixiu Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The thermal characteristics of a motorized spindle are the main determinants of its performance, and influence the machining accuracy of computer numerical control machine tools. It is important to accurately predict the thermal field of a motorized spindle during its operation to improve its thermal characteristics. This paper proposes a model to predict the temperature field of a high-speed and high-precision motorized spindle under different working conditions using a finite element model and test data. The finite element model considers the influence of the parameters of the cooling system and the lubrication system, and that of environmental conditions on the coefficient of heat transfer based on test data for the surface temperature of the motorized spindle. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize the coefficient of heat transfer of the spindle, and its temperature field is predicted using a three-dimensional model that employs this optimal coefficient. A prediction model of the 170MD30 temperature field of the motorized spindle is created and simulation data for the temperature field are compared with the test data. The results show that when the speed of the spindle is 10,000 rpm, the relative mean prediction error is 1.5%, and when its speed is 15,000 rpm, the prediction error is 3.6%. Therefore, the proposed prediction model can predict the temperature field of the motorized spindle with high accuracy.

  17. The ramp rate dependence of the sextupole field in superconducting dipoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.; Robins, K.E.; Sampson, W.B.

    1993-01-01

    Sextupole components are induced in the magnetic field of superconducting dipoles when the current is changed. The magnitude of this effect depends on the rate of change of field, the strand-to-strand resistance in the superconducting cable, and the twist pitch of the wire. Ramp rate measurements have been made on a number of SSC dipoles wound from conductors with different interstrand resistances. The technique employed uses an array of Hall probes sensitive to the sextupole field and can measure the difference for field increasing or decreasing as a function of axial position. Magnets with very low interstrand resistance exhibit a large axial oscillation in the sextupole field between up and down ramps which is rate dependent When the strand resistance is high the amplitude of this oscillation is almost independent of ramp rate

  18. Comparative investigation of three dose rate meters for their viability in pulsed radiation fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gotz, M; Karsch, L; Pawelke, J

    2015-01-01

    Pulsed radiation fields, characterized by microsecond pulse duration and correspondingly high pulse dose rates, are increasingly used in therapeutic, diagnostic and research applications. Yet, dose rate meters which are used to monitor radiation protection areas or to inspect radiation shielding are mostly designed, characterized and tested for continuous fields and show severe deficiencies in highly pulsed fields. Despite general awareness of the problem, knowledge of the specific limitations of individual instruments is very limited, complicating reliable measurements. We present here the results of testing three commercial dose rate meters, the RamION ionization chamber, the LB 1236-H proportional counter and the 6150AD-b scintillation counter, for their response in pulsed radiation fields of varied pulse dose and duration. Of these three the RamION proved reliable, operating in a pulsed radiation field within its specifications, while the other two instruments were only able to measure very limited pulse doses and pulse dose rates reliably. (paper)

  19. A simplified model for predicting malaria entomologic inoculation rates based on entomologic and parasitologic parameters relevant to control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

    2000-05-01

    Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during their lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other's effects. The EIRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic sites from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field measurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and human reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (+/- SD) that are 1.13 +/- 0.37 (range = 0.84-1.59) times those measured in the field. For these four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectiousness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the potential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensity to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission control measures and for public health education.

  20. Assessment of heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate to predict noninvasive ventilation failure in hypoxemic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jun; Han, Xiaoli; Bai, Linfu; Zhou, Lintong; Huang, Shicong

    2017-02-01

    To develop and validate a scale using variables easily obtained at the bedside for prediction of failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients. The test cohort comprised 449 patients with hypoxemia who were receiving NIV. This cohort was used to develop a scale that considers heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (referred to as the HACOR scale) to predict NIV failure, defined as need for intubation after NIV intervention. The highest possible score was 25 points. To validate the scale, a separate group of 358 hypoxemic patients were enrolled in the validation cohort. The failure rate of NIV was 47.8 and 39.4% in the test and validation cohorts, respectively. In the test cohort, patients with NIV failure had higher HACOR scores at initiation and after 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV than those with successful NIV. At 1 h of NIV the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88, showing good predictive power for NIV failure. Using 5 points as the cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure were 72.6, 90.2, 87.2, 78.1, and 81.8%, respectively. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure exceeded 80% in subgroups classified by diagnosis, age, or disease severity and also at 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV. Among patients with NIV failure with a HACOR score of >5 at 1 h of NIV, hospital mortality was lower in those who received intubation at ≤12 h of NIV than in those intubated later [58/88 (66%) vs. 138/175 (79%); p = 0.03). The HACOR scale variables are easily obtained at the bedside. The scale appears to be an effective way of predicting NIV failure in hypoxemic patients. Early intubation in high-risk patients may reduce hospital mortality.

  1. Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahdoust, Maryam; Sadeghifar, Majid; Poorolajal, Jalal; Javanrooh, Niloofar; Amini, Payam

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB. This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates. The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively. The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.

  2. Kalman Filter or VAR Models to Predict Unemployment Rate in Romania?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simionescu Mihaela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings to light an economic problem that frequently appears in practice: For the same variable, more alternative forecasts are proposed, yet the decision-making process requires the use of a single prediction. Therefore, a forecast assessment is necessary to select the best prediction. The aim of this research is to propose some strategies for improving the unemployment rate forecast in Romania by conducting a comparative accuracy analysis of unemployment rate forecasts based on two quantitative methods: Kalman filter and vector-auto-regressive (VAR models. The first method considers the evolution of unemployment components, while the VAR model takes into account the interdependencies between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. According to the Granger causality test, the inflation rate in the first difference is a cause of the unemployment rate in the first difference, these data sets being stationary. For the unemployment rate forecasts for 2010-2012 in Romania, the VAR models (in all variants of VAR simulations determined more accurate predictions than Kalman filter based on two state space models for all accuracy measures. According to mean absolute scaled error, the dynamic-stochastic simulations used in predicting unemployment based on the VAR model are the most accurate. Another strategy for improving the initial forecasts based on the Kalman filter used the adjusted unemployment data transformed by the application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. However, the use of VAR models rather than different variants of the Kalman filter methods remains the best strategy in improving the quality of the unemployment rate forecast in Romania. The explanation of these results is related to the fact that the interaction of unemployment with inflation provides useful information for predictions of the evolution of unemployment related to its components (i.e., natural unemployment and cyclical component.

  3. Different elution modes and field programming in gravitational field-flow fractionation. III. Field programming by flow-rate gradient generated by a programmable pump

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Plocková, Jana; Chmelík, Josef

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 918, č. 2 (2001), s. 361-370 ISSN 0021-9673 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA4031805 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4031919 Keywords : field-flow fractionation * field programming * flow-rate gradients Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 2.793, year: 2001

  4. [Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

    2016-07-12

    To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

  5. Maximal heart rate in soccer players: Measured versus age-predicted

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pantelis T Nikolaidis

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although maximal heart rate (HR max is widely used to assess exercise intensity in sport training, and particularly in soccer, there are limited data with regards to the use of age-based prediction equations of HR max in soccer players. The aim of this study was to compare the measured-HR max with two prediction equations (Fox-HR max = 220 – age and Tanaka-HR max = 208 – 0.7 × age in soccer players. Methods: Adolescent (n = 162, 15.8 ± 1.5 years and adult players (n = 158, 23.4 ± 4.6 years, all members of competitive clubs, voluntarily performed a graded exercise field test (Conconi protocol to assess HR max . Results: The measured-HR max (197.6 ± 9.4 bpm in total, 200.2 ± 7.9 bpm in adolescent players, and 195.0 ± 10.0 bpm in adult players was explained by the formula HR max = 212.3 – 0.75 × age (r = −0.41, standard error of the estimate = 8.6. In the total sample, Fox-HR max overestimated measured-HR max [mean difference (95% confidence intervals = 2.8 bpm (1.6; 3.9], while Tanaka-HR max underestimated HR max [–3.3 bpm (–4.5; –2.2]. In adolescents, Fox-HR max overestimated measured-HR max [4.0 bpm (2.5; 5.5] and Tanaka-HR max underestimated HR max [– 3.2 bpm (–4.7; –1.8]. In adults, Tanaka-HR max underestimated HR max [–5.0 bpm (–5.3; –4.7], while there was not any difference between Fox-HR max and measured-HR max [1.6 bpm (–3.4; 0.2]. Conclusions: The results of this study failed to validate two widely used prediction equations in a large sample of soccer players, indicating the need for a sport-specific equation. On the other hand, the new equation that we presented should be investigated further by future studies before being adopted by coaches and fitness trainers.

  6. Advertisement Click-Through Rate Prediction Based on the Weighted-ELM and Adaboost Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate click-through rate (CTR prediction can not only improve the advertisement company’s reputation and revenue, but also help the advertisers to optimize the advertising performance. There are two main unsolved problems of the CTR prediction: low prediction accuracy due to the imbalanced distribution of the advertising data and the lack of the real-time advertisement bidding implementation. In this paper, we will develop a novel online CTR prediction approach by incorporating the real-time bidding (RTB advertising by the following strategies: user profile system is constructed from the historical data of the RTB advertising to describe the user features, the historical CTR features, the ID features, and the other numerical features. A novel CTR prediction approach is presented to address the imbalanced learning sample distribution by integrating the Weighted-ELM (WELM and the Adaboost algorithm. Compared to the commonly used algorithms, the proposed approach can improve the CTR significantly.

  7. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive value and accuracy of ultrasonography in pregnancy rate prediction in Sahelian goats after progesterone impregnated sponge synchronization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Kouamo

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study was aimed to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive value and accuracy of ultrasonography in pregnancy rate (PR prediction in Sahelian goats after progesterone impregnated sponge synchronization within the framework of caprine artificial insemination (AI program in Fatick (Senegal. Materials and Methods: Of 193 candidate goats in AI program, 167 were selected (day 50 in six villages. Estrus was synchronized by progesterone impregnated sponges installed for 11 days. Two days before the time of sponge removal (day 4, each goat was treated with 500 IU of equine chorionic gonadotropin and 50 μg of dcloprostenol. All goats were inseminated (day 0 with alpine goat semen from France at 45±3 h after sponge removal (day 2. Real-time B-mode ultrasonography was performed at day 50, day 13, day 0, day 40 and day 60 post-AI. Results: Selection rate, estrus response rate, AI rate, PR at days 40 and days 60 were 86.53%; 71.85%; 83.34%; 51% and 68% (p<0.05 respectively. Value of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, accuracy, total conformity, conformity of correct positive, conformity of correct negative and discordance of pregnancy diagnosis by trans-abdominal ultrasonography (TU were 98.03%; 63.26%; 73.52%; 3.12%; 81%; 81%; 50%; 31% and 19%, respectively. Conclusion: These results indicate that the TU can be performed in goats under traditional condition and emphasized the importance of re-examination of goats with negative or doubtful TU diagnoses performed at day 40 post-AI.

  8. Determination of dose rates in beta radiation fields using extrapolation chamber and GM counter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borg, J.; Christensen, P.

    1995-01-01

    The extrapolation chamber measurement method is the basic method for the determination of dose rates in beta radiation fields and the method has been used for the establishment of beta calibration fields. The paper describes important details of the method and presents results from the measurements of depth-dose profiles from different beta radiation fields with E max values down to 156 keV. Results are also presented from studies of GM counters for use as survey instruments for monitoring beta dose rates at the workplace. Advantages of GM counters are a simple measurement technique and high sensitivity. GM responses were measured from exposures in different beta radiation fields using different filters in front of the GM detector and the paper discusses the possibility of using the results from GM measurements with two different filters in an unknown beta radiation field to obtain a value of the dose rate. (Author)

  9. Magnetic field effect on microplastic strain rate in C690 single crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, B.I.; Shpejzman, V.V.; Peschanskaya, N.N.; Nikolaev, R.K.

    2002-01-01

    Microplastic strain in magnetic field and beyond it, as well as, subsequent to preliminary exposure of C 60 crystals to magnetic field was investigated by means of laser interferometer enabling to measure rate of strain on the basis of 0.15 μm linear shifting. It is shown that introduction and removal of specimen from 0.2 T induction field immediately during deformation of specimen result in variation of its rate, and at reduction of rate one observes discontinuous interruption of deformation. Sign of effect depends on temperature: at room temperature magnetic field promotes deformation, at 100 K - shows it down. Effect of preliminary exposure within 0.2 and 2T induction field turned to be analogous one. One analyzed possible reasons of the observed manifestation of magnetoplastic effect in C 60 and relation of its sign with phase transition under 260 K temperature [ru

  10. Oxygen consumption and mortality rate of mice after X radiation under the influence of magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rekbi, M.

    1984-01-01

    In this work it was studied whether an influence on the oxygen use was to be expected as a result of a magnetic pulsating field. This could not be determined. An increased effect of the magnetic field with respect to the reduction of the mortality rate was, however, to be observed. Thereby the influence of similar constant and pulsating fields was discussed from various perspectives. The question of the biological effect mechanism of the magnetic field (main issue of the influence of the magnetic field during or after the irradiation) can only be answered by further comprehensive investigations. (orig./MG) [de

  11. Modelling the behaviour of long-lived radionuclides in the Irish Sea - comparison of model predictions with field observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kershaw, P.J.; Pentreath, R.J.; Gurbutt, P.A.; Woodhead, D.S.; Durance, J.A.; Camplin, W.C.

    1988-01-01

    A multi-compartmental box model of the Irish Sea has been developed to predict the distribution and radiological consequences of radionuclides discharged from the Sellafield reprocessing plant. The box structure was based on observations of radionuclide distributions in the sea bed and the water circulation was generated from extensive time-series data on 137 Cs concentrations in seawater. Measurements of naturally-occurring nuclides provided both data on the extent and rate of these processes and a means to validate the model assumptions. The model structure is briefly outlined, comparisons are made between model predictions and field observation, and some of the difficulties in making such comparisons are discussed. (author)

  12. Compilation of neutron flux density spectra and reaction rates in different neutron fields. V.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ertek, C.

    1980-04-01

    Upon the recommendation of the International Working Group of Reactor Radiation Measurements (IWGRRM) a compilation of documents containing neutron flux density spectra and the reaction rates obtained by activiation and fission foils in different neutron fields is presented

  13. NEUTRON GENERATOR FACILITY AT SFU: GEANT4 DOSE RATE PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J; Chester, A; Domingo, T; Rizwan, U; Starosta, K; Voss, P

    2016-11-01

    Detailed dose rate maps for a neutron generator facility at Simon Fraser University were produced via the GEANT4 Monte Carlo framework. Predicted neutron dose rates throughout the facility were compared with radiation survey measurements made during the facility commissioning process. When accounting for thermal neutrons, the prediction and measurement agree within a factor of 2 or better in most survey locations, and within 10 % inside the vault housing the neutron generator. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. A new constitutive model for prediction of impact rates response of polypropylene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buckley C.P.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new constitutive model for predicting the impact rates response of polypropylene. Impact rates, as used here, refer to strain rates greater than 1000 1/s. The model is a physically based, three-dimensional constitutive model which incorporates the contributions of the amorphous, crystalline, pseudo-amorphous and entanglement networks to the constitutive response of polypropylene. The model mathematics is based on the well-known Glass-Rubber model originally developed for glassy polymers but the arguments have herein been extended to semi-crystalline polymers. In order to predict the impact rates behaviour of polypropylene, the model exploits the well-known framework of multiple processes yielding of polymers. This work argues that two dominant viscoelastic relaxation processes – the alpha- and beta-processes – can be associated with the yield responses of polypropylene observed at low-rate-dominant and impact-rates dominant loading regimes. Compression test data on polypropylene have been used to validate the model. The study has found that the model predicts quite well the experimentally observed nonlinear rate-dependent impact response of polypropylene.

  15. Responsiveness of performance and morphological traits to experimental submergence predicts field distribution pattern of wetland plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, Fang-Li; Huang, Lin; Lei, Ting; Xue, Wei; Li, Hong-Li; Yu, Fei-Hai; Cornelissen, J.H.C.

    2016-01-01

    Question: Plant trait mean values and trait responsiveness to different environmental regimes are both important determinants of plant field distribution, but the degree to which plant trait means vs trait responsiveness predict plant distribution has rarely been compared quantitatively. Because

  16. Online physician ratings fail to predict actual performance on measures of quality, value, and peer review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskivich, Timothy J; Houman, Justin; Fuller, Garth; Black, Jeanne T; Kim, Hyung L; Spiegel, Brennan

    2018-04-01

    Patients use online consumer ratings to identify high-performing physicians, but it is unclear if ratings are valid measures of clinical performance. We sought to determine whether online ratings of specialist physicians from 5 platforms predict quality of care, value of care, and peer-assessed physician performance. We conducted an observational study of 78 physicians representing 8 medical and surgical specialties. We assessed the association of consumer ratings with specialty-specific performance scores (metrics including adherence to Choosing Wisely measures, 30-day readmissions, length of stay, and adjusted cost of care), primary care physician peer-review scores, and administrator peer-review scores. Across ratings platforms, multivariable models showed no significant association between mean consumer ratings and specialty-specific performance scores (β-coefficient range, -0.04, 0.04), primary care physician scores (β-coefficient range, -0.01, 0.3), and administrator scores (β-coefficient range, -0.2, 0.1). There was no association between ratings and score subdomains addressing quality or value-based care. Among physicians in the lowest quartile of specialty-specific performance scores, only 5%-32% had consumer ratings in the lowest quartile across platforms. Ratings were consistent across platforms; a physician's score on one platform significantly predicted his/her score on another in 5 of 10 comparisons. Online ratings of specialist physicians do not predict objective measures of quality of care or peer assessment of clinical performance. Scores are consistent across platforms, suggesting that they jointly measure a latent construct that is unrelated to performance. Online consumer ratings should not be used in isolation to select physicians, given their poor association with clinical performance.

  17. Study (Prediction of Main Pipes Break Rates in Water Distribution Systems Using Intelligent and Regression Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massoud Tabesh

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Optimum operation of water distribution networks is one of the priorities of sustainable development of water resources, considering the issues of increasing efficiency and decreasing the water losses. One of the key subjects in optimum operational management of water distribution systems is preparing rehabilitation and replacement schemes, prediction of pipes break rate and evaluation of their reliability. Several approaches have been presented in recent years regarding prediction of pipe failure rates which each one requires especial data sets. Deterministic models based on age and deterministic multi variables and stochastic group modeling are examples of the solutions which relate pipe break rates to parameters like age, material and diameters. In this paper besides the mentioned parameters, more factors such as pipe depth and hydraulic pressures are considered as well. Then using multi variable regression method, intelligent approaches (Artificial neural network and neuro fuzzy models and Evolutionary polynomial Regression method (EPR pipe burst rate are predicted. To evaluate the results of different approaches, a case study is carried out in a part ofMashhadwater distribution network. The results show the capability and advantages of ANN and EPR methods to predict pipe break rates, in comparison with neuro fuzzy and multi-variable regression methods.

  18. Field experience on Zn injection on PWR plants with a view to dose rate reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roumiguiere, F.

    2005-01-01

    Operating experience acquired at PWR plants shows that zinc injection in the primary coolant at low concentration (∼5 ppb) is a very effective tool to achieve a reduction of the dose rate build-up. The beneficial effect of zinc consists on improving the protective layer characteristics of the reactor coolant system surfaces, which results in a lower pickup of activated products (Co-60, Co-58), and consequently a reduction of the associated dose rates. Zinc injection was introduced at the Unit B of the Biblis Power Station in September 1996 and at the Obrigheim Nuclear Power Station in February 1998, as a measure for reduction of radiation fields. The effectiveness of the method and its compatibility with the overall plant was examined in a rather comprehensive surveillance program at these plants. The already published data show that zinc injection did not lead to any operating restrictions or other negative effects on plants systems and components. Zinc injection is still being implemented today at these plants. Zinc injection is considered today as a mature technique and is now being successfully applied at a number of PWRs in Germany, Brazil, USA and Japan, with the support of Framatome-ANP. Several PWRs in Europe and Asia are preparing for zinc chemistry in the near future. The method is inexpensive and easy to apply. Its implementation is highly advisable in terms of the cost/benefit criterion following the ALARA principle. This paper gives an overview of the experience gathered with the method. The main subject addressed by the paper is the evolution of dose rates at the primary system and work-related doses since introduction of the method. In German PWRs with Incoloy 800 steam generator tubing material (Ni-content ∼32%), the observed reductions correspond to a decrease in dose rates of around 10 to 15% per year following, as predicted, the half-life time of 60 Co. Overall reductions in high radiation areas are now in the range of 50% after 5 years of

  19. Among nonagenarians, congruence between self-rated and proxy-rated health was low but both predicted mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuorisalmi, Merja; Sarkeala, Tytti; Hervonen, Antti; Jylhä, Marja

    2012-05-01

    The congruence between self-rated global health (SRH) and proxy-rated global health (PRH), the factors associated with congruence between SRH and PRH, and their associations with mortality are examined using data from the Vitality 90+ study. The data consist of 213 pairs of subjects--aged 90 years and older--and proxies. The relationship between SRH and PRH was analyzed by chi-square test and Cohen's kappa. Logistic regression analysis was used to find out the factors that are associated with the congruence between health ratings. The association between SRH and PRH with mortality was studied using Cox proportional hazard models. The subjects rated their health more negatively than the proxies. Kappa value indicated only slight congruence between SRH and PRH, and they also predicted mortality differently. Good self-reported functional ability was associated with congruence between SRH and PRH. The results imply that the evaluation processes of SRH and PRH differ, and the measures are not directly interchangeable. Both measures are useful health indicators in very old age but SRH cannot be replaced by PRH in analyses. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Compilation of neutron flux density spectra and reaction rates in different neutron fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ertek, C.

    1979-07-01

    Upon the recommendation of International Working Group of Reactor Radiation Measurements (IWGRRM), the compilation of neutron flux density spectra and the reaction rates obtained by activation and fission foils in different neutron fields is presented. The neutron fields considered are as follows: 1/E; iron block; LWR core and pressure vessel; LMFBR core and blanket; CTR first wall and blanket; fission spectrum

  1. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  2. Emotional Exhaustion and Workload Predict Clinician-Rated and Objective Patient Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalena eWelp

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. (Multilevel regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety were associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios.Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables or and support the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety.

  3. Modeling and Model Predictive Power and Rate Control of Wireless Communication Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunwu Han

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel power and rate control system model for wireless communication networks is presented, which includes uncertainties, input constraints, and time-varying delays in both state and control input. A robust delay-dependent model predictive power and rate control method is proposed, and the state feedback control law is obtained by solving an optimization problem that is derived by using linear matrix inequality (LMI techniques. Simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Prediction of transport phenomena in near and far field: interaction solid phase/fluid phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mingarro, E.

    1995-01-01

    The prediction of transport phenomena in near and far field is presented in the present report. The study begins with the analysis of solid phases stability: solubility of storage waste: UO 2 and solubility of radionuclides the redox and sorption-desorption conditions are the last aspects studied to predict the transport phenomena

  5. Measurements and predictions of hooded crow (Corvus corone cornix) call propagation over open field habitats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kenneth Kragh; Larsen, Ole Næsbye; Attenborough, Keith

    2008-01-01

    In a study of hooded crow communication over open fields an excellent correspondence is found between the attenuation spectra predicted by a "turbulence-modified ground effect plus atmospheric absorption" model, and crow call attenuation data. Sound propagation predictions and background noise...

  6. Stress hormones predict hyperbolic time-discount rates six months later in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki; Shinada, Mizuho; Inukai, Keigo; Tanida, Shigehito; Takahashi, Chisato; Mifune, Nobuhiro; Takagishi, Haruto; Horita, Yutaka; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Yokota, Kunihiro; Kameda, Tatsuya; Yamagishi, Toshio

    2010-01-01

    Stress hormones have been associated with temporal discounting. Although time-discount rate is shown to be stable over a long term, no study to date examines whether individual differences in stress hormones could predict individuals' time-discount rates in the relatively distant future (e.g., six month later), which is of interest in neuroeconomics of stress-addiction association. We assessed 87 participants' salivary stress hormone (cortisol, cortisone, and alpha-amylase) levels and hyperbolic discounting of delayed rewards consisting of three magnitudes, at the time-interval of six months. For salivary steroid assays, we employed a liquid chromatography/ mass spectroscopy (LC/MS) method. The correlations between the stress hormone levels and time-discount rates were examined. We observed that salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels were negatively associated with time-discount rates in never-smokers. Notably, salivary levels of stress steroids (i.e., cortisol and cortisone) negatively and positively related to time-discount rates in men and women, respectively, in never-smokers. Ever-smokers' discount rates were not predicted from these stress hormone levels. Individual differences in stress hormone levels predict impulsivity in temporal discounting in the future. There are sex differences in the effect of stress steroids on temporal discounting; while there was no sex defference in the relationship between sAA and temporal discounting.

  7. Prediction of ozone tropospheric degradation rate constant of organic compounds by using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatemi, M.H.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone tropospheric degradation of organic compound is very important in environmental chemistry. The lifetime of organic chemicals in the atmosphere can be calculated from the knowledge of the rate constant of their reaction with free radicals such as OH and NO 3 or O 3 . In the present work, the rate constant for the tropospheric degradation of 137 organic compounds by reaction with ozone, the least widely and successfully modeled degradation process, are predicted by quantitative structure activity relationships modeling based on a variety of theoretical descriptors, which screened and selected by genetic algorithm variable subset selection procedure. These descriptors which can be used as inputs for generated artificial neural networks are; HOMO-LUMO gap, number of double bonds, number of single bonds, maximum net charge on C atom, minimum (>0.1) bond order of C atom and Minimum e-e repulsion of H atom. After generation, optimization and training of artificial neural network, network was used for the prediction of log KO 3 for the validation set. The root mean square error for the neural network calculated log KO 3 for training, prediction and validation set are 0.357, 0.460 and 0.481, respectively, which are smaller than those obtained by multiple linear regressions model (1.217, 0.870 and 0.968, respectively). Results obtained reveal the reliability and good predictivity of neural network model for the prediction of ozone tropospheric degradations rate constant of organic compounds

  8. Improved predictions of nuclear reaction rates with the TALYS reaction code for astrophysical applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goriely, S.; Hilaire, S.; Koning, A.J

    2008-01-01

    Context. Nuclear reaction rates of astrophysical applications are traditionally determined on the basis of Hauser-Feshbach reaction codes. These codes adopt a number of approximations that have never been tested, such as a simplified width fluctuation correction, the neglect of delayed or multiple-particle emission during the electromagnetic decay cascade, or the absence of the pre-equilibrium contribution at increasing incident energies. Aims. The reaction code TALYS has been recently updated to estimate the Maxwellian-averaged reaction rates that are of astrophysical relevance. These new developments enable the reaction rates to be calculated with increased accuracy and reliability and the approximations of previous codes to be investigated. Methods. The TALYS predictions for the thermonuclear rates of relevance to astrophysics are detailed and compared with those derived by widely-used codes for the same nuclear ingredients. Results. It is shown that TALYS predictions may differ significantly from those of previous codes, in particular for nuclei for which no or little nuclear data is available. The pre-equilibrium process is shown to influence the astrophysics rates of exotic neutron-rich nuclei significantly. For the first time, the Maxwellian- averaged (n, 2n) reaction rate is calculated for all nuclei and its competition with the radiative capture rate is discussed. Conclusions. The TALYS code provides a new tool to estimate all nuclear reaction rates of relevance to astrophysics with improved accuracy and reliability. (authors)

  9. Reaction-rate formula in out of equilibrium quantum field theory

    OpenAIRE

    Niegawa, A.; Okano, K.; Ozaki, H.

    1999-01-01

    A complete derivation, from first principles, of the reaction-rate formula for a generic reaction taking place in an out of equilibrium quantum-field system is given. It is shown that the formula involves no finite-volume correction. Each term of the reaction-rate formula represents a set of physical processes that contribute to the reaction under consideration.

  10. Scaling of the susceptibility vs. magnetic-field sweep rate in Fe8 molecular magnet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordi, M.; Hernandez-Mínguez, A.; Hernandez, J. M.; Tejada, J.; Stroobants, S.; Vanacken, J.; Moshchalkov, V. V.

    2004-12-01

    The dependence of the magnetization reversal on the sweep rate of the applied magnetic field has been studied for single crystals of Fe8 magnetic molecules. Our experiments have been conducted at temperatures below 1 K and sweep rates of the magnetic field between 103 T/s to 104 T/s. The systematic shift of the values of the magnetic field at which the magnetization reversal occurs, indicates that this reversal process is not governed by the Landau-Zener transition model. Our data can be explained in terms of the superradiance emission model proposed by Chudnovsky and Garanin (Phys. Rev. Lett. 89 (2002) 157201).

  11. A prediction method for the wax deposition rate based on a radial basis function neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Xie

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The radial basis function neural network is a popular supervised learning tool based on machinery learning technology. Its high precision having been proven, the radial basis function neural network has been applied in many areas. The accumulation of deposited materials in the pipeline may lead to the need for increased pumping power, a decreased flow rate or even to the total blockage of the line, with losses of production and capital investment, so research on predicting the wax deposition rate is significant for the safe and economical operation of an oil pipeline. This paper adopts the radial basis function neural network to predict the wax deposition rate by considering four main influencing factors, the pipe wall temperature gradient, pipe wall wax crystal solubility coefficient, pipe wall shear stress and crude oil viscosity, by the gray correlational analysis method. MATLAB software is employed to establish the RBF neural network. Compared with the previous literature, favorable consistency exists between the predicted outcomes and the experimental results, with a relative error of 1.5%. It can be concluded that the prediction method of wax deposition rate based on the RBF neural network is feasible.

  12. USE OF ROUGH SETS AND SPECTRAL DATA FOR BUILDING PREDICTIVE MODELS OF REACTION RATE CONSTANTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A model for predicting the log of the rate constants for alkaline hydrolysis of organic esters has been developed with the use of gas-phase min-infrared library spectra and a rule-building software system based on the mathematical theory of rough sets. A diverse set of 41 esters ...

  13. Looking Maori predicts decreased rates of home ownership : Institutional racism in housing based on perceived appearance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houkamau, C.A.; Sibley, C.G.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined differences in rates of home ownership among Māori (the indigenous peoples of New Zealand). We identified systematic factors that predicted why some Māori were more likely to own their own home (partially or fully) relative to other Māori. Data were drawn from a large national

  14. Packetized Predictive Control for Rate-Limited Networks via Sparse Representation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nagahara, Masaaki; Quevedo, Daniel; Østergaard, Jan

    2012-01-01

    controller and the plant input. To achieve robustness with respect to dropouts, the controller transmits data packets containing plant input predictions, which minimize a finite horizon cost function. In our formulation, we design sparse packets for rate-limited networks, by adopting an an ℓ0 optimization...

  15. Seed persistence in the field may be predicted by laboratory-controlled aging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Long, Rowena L.; Panetta, F. Dane; Steadman, Kathryn J.; Probert, Robin; Bekker, Renee M.; Brooks, Simon; Adkins, Steve W.

    2008-01-01

    Weed management is complicated by the presence of soil seed banks. The complexity of soil-seed interactions means that seed persistence in the field is often difficult to measure, let alone predict. Field trials, although accurate in their context, are time-consuming and expensive to conduct for

  16. Resting-state qEEG predicts rate of second language learning in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat, Chantel S; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Kluender, Reina A; Stocco, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the neurobiological basis of individual differences in second language acquisition (SLA) is important for research on bilingualism, learning, and neural plasticity. The current study used quantitative electroencephalography (qEEG) to predict SLA in college-aged individuals. Baseline, eyes-closed resting-state qEEG was used to predict language learning rate during eight weeks of French exposure using an immersive, virtual scenario software. Individual qEEG indices predicted up to 60% of the variability in SLA, whereas behavioral indices of fluid intelligence, executive functioning, and working-memory capacity were not correlated with learning rate. Specifically, power in beta and low-gamma frequency ranges over right temporoparietal regions were strongly positively correlated with SLA. These results highlight the utility of resting-state EEG for studying the neurobiological basis of SLA in a relatively construct-free, paradigm-independent manner. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Measurements of crossed-field demagnetisation rate of trapped field magnets at high frequencies and below 77 K

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskys, A.; Patel, A.; Glowacki, B. A.

    2018-06-01

    Design requirements of the next generation of electric aircraft place stringent requirements on the power density required from electric motors. A future prototype planned in the scope of the European project ‘Advanced Superconducting Motor Experimental Demonstrator’ (ASuMED) considers a permanent magnet synchronous motor, where the conventional ferromagnets are replaced with superconducting trapped field magnets, which promise higher flux densities and thus higher output power without adding weight. Previous work has indicated that stacks of tape show lower cross-field demagnetisation rates to bulk (RE)BCO whilst retaining similar performance for their size, however the crossed-field demagnetisation rate has not been studied in the temperature, the magnetic field and frequency range that are relevant for the operational prototype motor. This work investigates crossed-field demagnetisation in 2G high temperature superconducting stacks at temperatures below 77 K and a frequency range above 10 Hz. This information is crucial in developing designs and determining operational time before re-magnetisation could be required.

  18. Neutron fraction and neutrino mean free path predictions in relativistic mean field models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutauruk, P.T.P.; Williams, C.K.; Sulaksono, A.; Mart, T.

    2004-01-01

    The equation of state (EOS) of dense matter and neutrino mean free path (NMFP) in a neutron star have been studied by using relativistic mean field models motivated by effective field theory. It is found that the models predict too large proton fractions, although one of the models (G2) predicts an acceptable EOS. This is caused by the isovector terms. Except G2, the other two models predict anomalous NMFP's. In order to minimize the anomaly, besides an acceptable EOS, a large M* is favorable. A model with large M* retains the regularity in the NMFP even for a small neutron fraction

  19. Research on wind field algorithm of wind lidar based on BP neural network and grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Chen, Chun-Li; Luo, Xiong; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Ze-hou; Zhou, Jie; Shi, Xiao-ding; Wang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    This paper uses the BP neural network and grey algorithm to forecast and study radar wind field. In order to reduce the residual error in the wind field prediction which uses BP neural network and grey algorithm, calculating the minimum value of residual error function, adopting the residuals of the gray algorithm trained by BP neural network, using the trained network model to forecast the residual sequence, using the predicted residual error sequence to modify the forecast sequence of the grey algorithm. The test data show that using the grey algorithm modified by BP neural network can effectively reduce the residual value and improve the prediction precision.

  20. Application of SAR interferometry to low-rate crustal deformation fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Paul

    Differential SAR interferometry is applied to the study of low-rate interseismic crustal deformation fields along three regions of the San Adreas fault system: Salton Sea (southernmost region), Pinto Mountain fault (south-central region), and San Francisco Bay (northern region). New techniques are developed to analyze and model these low-rate deformation fields including constrained horizontal-vertical component deconvolution, deformation phase pattern analysis and strain field evolution modeling. Several new active faults were discovered as well as unmeasured activity on existing faults in the process of this SAR interferometry study. The feasibility and limitations of InSAR as a tool to study low-rate deformation fields is also addressed.

  1. Predictive Validity of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale for Short-Term Suicidal Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conway, Paul Maurice; Erlangsen, Annette; Teasdale, Thomas William

    2017-01-01

    adolescents (90.6% females) who participated at follow-up (85.9%) out of the 99 (49.7%) baseline respondents. All adolescents were recruited from a specialized suicide-prevention clinic in Denmark. Through multivariate logistic regression analyses, we examined whether baseline suicidal behavior predicted......Using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS), we examined the predictive and incremental predictive validity of past-month suicidal behavior and ideation for short-term suicidal behavior among adolescents at high risk of suicide. The study was conducted in 2014 on a sample of 85...... subsequent suicidal behavior (actual attempts and suicidal behavior of any type, including preparatory acts, aborted, interrupted and actual attempts; mean follow-up of 80.8 days, SD = 52.4). Furthermore, we examined whether suicidal ideation severity and intensity incrementally predicted suicidal behavior...

  2. Predictive power of the DASA-IV: Variations in rating method and timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nqwaku, Mphindisi; Draycott, Simon; Aldridge-Waddon, Luke; Bush, Emma-Louise; Tsirimokou, Alexandra; Jones, Dominic; Puzzo, Ignazio

    2018-05-10

    This project evaluated the predictive validity of the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression - Inpatient Version (DASA-IV) in a high-secure psychiatric hospital in the UK over 24 hours and over a single nursing shift. DASA-IV scores from three sequential nursing shifts over a 24-hour period were compared with the mean (average of three scores across the 24-hour period) and peak (highest of the three scores across the 24-hour period) scores across these shifts. In addition, scores from a single nursing shift were used to predict aggressive incidents over each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV was completed by nursing staff during handover meetings, rating 43 male psychiatric inpatients over a period of 6 months. Data were compared to incident reports recorded over the same period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and generalized estimating equations assessed the predictive ability of various DASA-IV scores over 24-hour and single-shift timescales. Scores from the DASA-IV based on a single shift had moderate predictive ability for aggressive incidents occurring the next calendar day, whereas scores based on all three shifts had excellent predictive ability. DASA-IV scores from a single shift showed moderate predictive ability for each of the following three shifts. The DASA-IV has excellent predictive ability for aggressive incidents within a secure setting when data are summarized over a 24-hour period, as opposed to when a single rating is taken. In addition, it has moderate value for predicting incidents over even shorter timescales. © 2018 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  3. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  4. Mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy growth rates for wafer production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, B.Q.

    2003-01-01

    An analytical mathematical model for predicting molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) growth rates is reported. The mathematical model solves the mass-conservation equation for liquid sources in conical crucibles and predicts the growth rate by taking into account the effect of growth source depletion on the growth rate. Assumptions made for deducing the analytical model are discussed. The model derived contains only one unknown parameter, the value of which can be determined by using data readily available to MBE growers. Procedures are outlined for implementing the model in MBE production of III-V compound semiconductor device wafers. Results from use of the model to obtain targeted layer compositions and thickness of InP-based heterojunction bipolar transistor wafers are presented

  5. Vigorous physical activity predicts higher heart rate variability among younger adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Richard; McBerty, Victoria; Zaky, Adam; Gianotti, Melino

    2017-06-14

    Baseline heart rate variability (HRV) is linked to prospective cardiovascular health. We tested intensity and duration of weekly physical activity as predictors of heart rate variability in young adults. Time and frequency domain indices of HRV were calculated based on 5-min resting electrocardiograms collected from 82 undergraduate students. Hours per week of both moderate and vigorous activity were estimated using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. In regression analyses, hours of vigorous physical activity, but not moderate activity, significantly predicted greater time domain and frequency domain indices of heart rate variability. Adjusted for weekly frequency, greater daily duration of vigorous activity failed to predict HRV indices. Future studies should test direct measurements of vigorous activity patterns as predictors of autonomic function in young adulthood.

  6. Field studies of submerged-diffuser thermal plumes with comparisons to predictive model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigo, A.A.; Paddock, R.A.; Ditmars, J.D.

    1976-01-01

    Thermal plumes from submerged discharges of cooling water from two power plants on Lake Michigan were studied. The system for the acquisition of water temperatures and ambient conditions permitted the three-dimensional structure of the plumes to be determined. The Zion Nuclear Power Station has two submerged discharge structures separated by only 94 m. Under conditions of flow from both structures, interaction between the two plumes resulted in larger thermal fields than would be predicted by the superposition of single non-interacting plumes. Maximum temperatures in the near-field region of the plume compared favorably with mathematical model predictions. A comparison of physical-model predictions for the plume at the D. C. Cook Nuclear Plant with prototype measurements indicated good agreement in the near-field region, but differences in the far-field occurred as similitude was not preserved there

  7. Prediction and optimisation of Pb/Zn/Fe sulphide scales in gas production fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dyer, Sarah; Orski, Karine; Menezes, Carlos; Heath, Steve; MacPherson, Calum; Simpson, Caroline; Graham, Gordon

    2006-03-15

    Lead, zinc and iron sulphide scales are known to be a particular issue with gas production fields, particularly those producing from HP/HT reservoirs. However the prediction of sulphide scale and the methodologies available for their laboratory assessment are not as well developed as those for the more conventional sulphate and carbonate scales. This work examines a particular sulphide scaling regime from a North Sea high temperature gas condensate production field containing only 0.8ppm of sulphide ions. Sulphide scales were identified in the production system which was shown to be a mixture of lead and zinc sulphide, primarily lead sulphide. This formed as a result of cooling during production resulting in the over saturation of these minerals. This paper describes scale prediction and modified laboratory test protocols used to re-create the scales formed in the field prior to chemical performance testing. From the brine composition, scale prediction identified that the major scales that could be formed were calcium carbonate, iron carbonate, iron sulphide, lead sulphide and zinc sulphide. In addition, modification of the brine compositions led to prediction of primarily one scale or the other. Given the predicted over saturation of various minerals, preliminary laboratory tests were therefore conducted in order to ensure that the scale formed under laboratory conditions was representative of the field scale. Laboratory protocols were therefore developed to ensure that the scales formed in fully anaerobic dynamic performance tests and static performance tests were similar to those encountered in the field. The paper compares results from field analysis, scale predictions and laboratory scale formation tests using newly developed test protocols and shows differences between prediction and laboratory data. The paper therefore demonstrates the importance of ensuring that the correct scale is formed under laboratory test conditions and also indicates some potential

  8. The Frequency of "Brilliant" and "Genius" in Teaching Evaluations Predicts the Representation of Women and African Americans across Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storage, Daniel; Horne, Zachary; Cimpian, Andrei; Leslie, Sarah-Jane

    2016-01-01

    Women and African Americans-groups targeted by negative stereotypes about their intellectual abilities-may be underrepresented in careers that prize brilliance and genius. A recent nationwide survey of academics provided initial support for this possibility. Fields whose practitioners believed that natural talent is crucial for success had fewer female and African American PhDs. The present study seeks to replicate this initial finding with a different, and arguably more naturalistic, measure of the extent to which brilliance and genius are prized within a field. Specifically, we measured field-by-field variability in the emphasis on these intellectual qualities by tallying-with the use of a recently released online tool-the frequency of the words "brilliant" and "genius" in over 14 million reviews on RateMyProfessors.com, a popular website where students can write anonymous evaluations of their instructors. This simple word count predicted both women's and African Americans' representation across the academic spectrum. That is, we found that fields in which the words "brilliant" and "genius" were used more frequently on RateMyProfessors.com also had fewer female and African American PhDs. Looking at an earlier stage in students' educational careers, we found that brilliance-focused fields also had fewer women and African Americans obtaining bachelor's degrees. These relationships held even when accounting for field-specific averages on standardized mathematics assessments, as well as several competing hypotheses concerning group differences in representation. The fact that this naturalistic measure of a field's focus on brilliance predicted the magnitude of its gender and race gaps speaks to the tight link between ability beliefs and diversity.

  9. The Frequency of "Brilliant" and "Genius" in Teaching Evaluations Predicts the Representation of Women and African Americans across Fields.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Storage

    Full Text Available Women and African Americans-groups targeted by negative stereotypes about their intellectual abilities-may be underrepresented in careers that prize brilliance and genius. A recent nationwide survey of academics provided initial support for this possibility. Fields whose practitioners believed that natural talent is crucial for success had fewer female and African American PhDs. The present study seeks to replicate this initial finding with a different, and arguably more naturalistic, measure of the extent to which brilliance and genius are prized within a field. Specifically, we measured field-by-field variability in the emphasis on these intellectual qualities by tallying-with the use of a recently released online tool-the frequency of the words "brilliant" and "genius" in over 14 million reviews on RateMyProfessors.com, a popular website where students can write anonymous evaluations of their instructors. This simple word count predicted both women's and African Americans' representation across the academic spectrum. That is, we found that fields in which the words "brilliant" and "genius" were used more frequently on RateMyProfessors.com also had fewer female and African American PhDs. Looking at an earlier stage in students' educational careers, we found that brilliance-focused fields also had fewer women and African Americans obtaining bachelor's degrees. These relationships held even when accounting for field-specific averages on standardized mathematics assessments, as well as several competing hypotheses concerning group differences in representation. The fact that this naturalistic measure of a field's focus on brilliance predicted the magnitude of its gender and race gaps speaks to the tight link between ability beliefs and diversity.

  10. A numerical evaluation of prediction accuracy of CO2 absorber model for various reaction rate coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shim S.M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of the CO2 absorber column using mono-ethanolamine (MEA solution as chemical solvent are predicted by a One-Dimensional (1-D rate based model in the present study. 1-D Mass and heat balance equations of vapor and liquid phase are coupled with interfacial mass transfer model and vapor-liquid equilibrium model. The two-film theory is used to estimate the mass transfer between the vapor and liquid film. Chemical reactions in MEA-CO2-H2O system are considered to predict the equilibrium pressure of CO2 in the MEA solution. The mathematical and reaction kinetics models used in this work are calculated by using in-house code. The numerical results are validated in the comparison of simulation results with experimental and simulation data given in the literature. The performance of CO2 absorber column is evaluated by the 1-D rate based model using various reaction rate coefficients suggested by various researchers. When the rate of liquid to gas mass flow rate is about 8.3, 6.6, 4.5 and 3.1, the error of CO2 loading and the CO2 removal efficiency using the reaction rate coefficients of Aboudheir et al. is within about 4.9 % and 5.2 %, respectively. Therefore, the reaction rate coefficient suggested by Aboudheir et al. among the various reaction rate coefficients used in this study is appropriate to predict the performance of CO2 absorber column using MEA solution. [Acknowledgement. This research was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF, funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (2011-0017220].

  11. How to predict a high rate of inappropriateness for upper endoscopy in an endoscopic centre?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buri, L; Bersani, G; Hassan, C; Anti, M; Bianco, M A; Cipolletta, L; Di Giulio, E; Di Matteo, G; Familiari, L; Ficano, L; Loriga, P; Morini, S; Pietropaolo, V; Zambelli, A; Grossi, E; Intraligi, M; Tessari, F; Buscema, M

    2010-09-01

    Inappropriateness of upper endoscopy (EGD) indication causes decreased diagnostic yield. Our aim of was to identify predictors of appropriateness rate for EGD among endoscopic centres. A post-hoc analysis of two multicentre cross-sectional studies, including 6270 and 8252 patients consecutively referred to EGD in 44 (group A) and 55 (group B) endoscopic Italian centres in 2003 and 2007, respectively, was performed. A multiple forward stepwise regression was applied to group A, and independently validated in group B. A <70% threshold was adopted to define inadequate appropriateness rate clustered by centre. discrete variability of clustered appropriateness rates among the 44 group A centres was observed (median: 77%; range: 41-97%), and a <70% appropriateness rate was detected in 11 (25%). Independent predictors of centre appropriateness rate were: percentage of patients referred by general practitioners (GP), rate of urgent examinations, prevalence of relevant diseases, and academic status. For group B, sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in detecting centres with a <70% appropriateness rate were 54%, 93% and 0.72, respectively. A simple predictive rule, based on rate of patients referred by GPs, rate of urgent examinations, prevalence of relevant diseases and academic status, identified a small subset of centres characterised by a high rate of inappropriateness. These centres may be presumed to obtain the largest benefit from targeted educational programs. Copyright (c) 2010 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Reliability prediction system based on the failure rate model for electronic components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seung Woo; Lee, Hwa Ki

    2008-01-01

    Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. Among the reliability prediction methods are the statistical analysis based method, the similarity analysis method based on an external failure rate database, and the method based on the physics-of-failure model. In this study, we developed a system by which the reliability of electronic components can be predicted by creating a system for the statistical analysis method of predicting reliability most easily. The failure rate models that were applied are MILHDBK- 217F N2, PRISM, and Telcordia (Bellcore), and these were compared with the general purpose system in order to validate the effectiveness of the developed system. Being able to predict the reliability of electronic components from the stage of design, the system that we have developed is expected to contribute to enhancing the reliability of electronic components

  13. A GPS Satellite Clock Offset Prediction Method Based on Fitting Clock Offset Rates Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Fuhong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It is proposed that a satellite atomic clock offset prediction method based on fitting and modeling clock offset rates data. This method builds quadratic model or linear model combined with periodic terms to fit the time series of clock offset rates, and computes the model coefficients of trend with the best estimation. The clock offset precisely estimated at the initial prediction epoch is directly adopted to calculate the model coefficient of constant. The clock offsets in the rapid ephemeris (IGR provided by IGS are used as modeling data sets to perform certain experiments for different types of GPS satellite clocks. The results show that the clock prediction accuracies of the proposed method for 3, 6, 12 and 24 h achieve 0.43, 0.58, 0.90 and 1.47 ns respectively, which outperform the traditional prediction method based on fitting original clock offsets by 69.3%, 61.8%, 50.5% and 37.2%. Compared with the IGU real-time clock products provided by IGS, the prediction accuracies of the new method have improved about 15.7%, 23.7%, 27.4% and 34.4% respectively.

  14. Islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose predicts insulin independence for first clinical islet allotransplants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitzmann, JP; O’Gorman, D; Kin, T; Gruessner, AC; Senior, P; Imes, S; Gruessner, RW; Shapiro, AMJ; Papas, KK

    2014-01-01

    Human islet allotransplant (ITx) for the treatment of type 1 diabetes is in phase III clinical registration trials in the US and standard of care in several other countries. Current islet product release criteria include viability based on cell membrane integrity stains, glucose stimulated insulin release (GSIR), and islet equivalent (IE) dose based on counts. However, only a fraction of patients transplanted with islets that meet or exceed these release criteria become insulin independent following one transplant. Measurements of islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) have been reported as highly predictive of transplant outcome in many models. In this paper we report on the assessment of clinical islet allograft preparations using islet oxygen consumption rate (OCR) dose (or viable IE dose) and current product release assays in a series of 13 first transplant recipients. The predictive capability of each assay was examined and successful graft function was defined as 100% insulin independence within 45 days post-transplant. Results showed that OCR dose was most predictive of CTO. IE dose was also highly predictive, while GSIR and membrane integrity stains were not. In conclusion, OCR dose can predict CTO with high specificity and sensitivity and is a useful tool for evaluating islet preparations prior to clinical ITx. PMID:25131089

  15. ROTATION RATE DIFFERENCES OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS BETWEEN ±60° LATITUDES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, X. J.; Xie, J. L., E-mail: shixiangjun@ynao.ac.cn [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China)

    2015-04-15

    Based on a cross-correlation analysis of the Carrington synoptic maps of solar photospheric magnetic fields from Carrington Rotations Nos. 1625 to 2135 (from 1975 February to 2013 March), the sidereal rotation rates of the positive and negative magnetic fields in the latitude range of ±60° are obtained, and the rotation rate differences between them are investigated. The time–latitude distribution of the rate differences is shown, which looks like a butterfly diagram at the low and middle latitudes. For comparison, the time–latitude distribution of the longitudinally averaged photospheric magnetic fields is shown. We conclude that the magnetic fields having the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere rotate faster than those exhibiting the opposite polarity at low and middle latitudes. However, at higher latitudes, the magnetic fields having the same polarity as the leading sunspots at a given hemisphere do not always rotate faster than those with the opposite polarity. Furthermore, the relationship between the rotation rate differences and solar magnetic fields is studied through a correlation analysis. Our result shows that the correlation coefficients between them reach maximum values at 13° (14°) latitude in the northern (southern) hemisphere, and change sign at 28° latitude in both hemispheres, then reach their minimum values at 58° (53°) latitude in the northern (southern) hemisphere.

  16. Predicting Basal Metabolic Rate in Men with Motor Complete Spinal Cord Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nightingale, Tom E; Gorgey, Ashraf S

    2018-01-08

    To assess the accuracy of existing basal metabolic rate (BMR) prediction equations in men with chronic (>1 year) spinal cord injury (SCI). The primary aim is to develop new SCI population-specific BMR prediction models, based on anthropometric, body composition and/or demographic variables that are strongly associated with BMR. Thirty men with chronic SCI (Paraplegic; n = 21, Tetraplegic; n = 9), aged 35 ± 11 years (mean ± SD) participated in this cross-sectional study. Criterion BMR values were measured by indirect calorimetry. Body composition (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry; DXA) and anthropometric measurements (circumferences and diameters) were also taken. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to develop new SCI-specific BMR prediction models. Criterion BMR values were compared to values estimated from six existing and four developed prediction equations RESULTS: Existing equations that use information on stature, weight and/or age, significantly (P BMR by a mean of 14-17% (187-234 kcal/day). Equations that utilised fat-free mass (FFM) accurately predicted BMR. The development of new SCI-specific prediction models demonstrated that the addition of anthropometric variables (weight, height and calf circumference) to FFM (Model 3; r = 0.77), explained 8% more of the variance in BMR than FFM alone (Model 1; r = 0.69). Using anthropometric variables, without FFM, explained less of the variance in BMR (Model 4; r = 0.57). However, all the developed prediction models demonstrated acceptable mean absolute error ≤ 6%. BMR can be more accurately estimated when DXA derived FFM is incorporated into prediction equations. Utilising anthropometric measurements provides a promising alternative to improve the prediction of BMR, beyond that achieved by existing equations in persons with SCI.

  17. Validity of predictive equations for basal metabolic rate in Japanese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Rieko; Tanaka, Shigeho; Ohkawara, Kazunori; Ishikawa-Takata, Kazuko; Hikihara, Yuki; Taguri, Emiko; Kayashita, Jun; Tabata, Izumi

    2011-01-01

    Many predictive equations for basal metabolic rate (BMR) based on anthropometric measurements, age, and sex have been developed, mainly for healthy Caucasians. However, it has been reported that many of these equations, used widely, overestimate BMR not only for Asians, but also for Caucasians. The present study examined the accuracy of several predictive equations for BMR in Japanese subjects. In 365 healthy Japanese male and female subjects, aged 18 to 79 y, BMR was measured in the post-absorptive state using a mask and Douglas bag. Six predictive equations were examined. Total error was used as an index of the accuracy of each equation's prediction. Predicted BMR values by Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Japan-DRI), Adjusted Dietary Reference Intakes for Japanese (Adjusted-DRI), and Ganpule equations were not significantly different from the measured BMR in either sex. On the other hand, Harris-Benedict, Schofield, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization/United Nations University equations were significantly higher than the measured BMR in both sexes. The prediction error by Japan-DRI, Adjusted-DRI, and Harris-Benedict equations was significantly correlated with body weight in both sexes. Total error using the Ganpule equation was low in both males and females (125 and 99 kcal/d, respectively). In addition, total error using the Adjusted-DRI equation was low in females (95 kcal/d). Thus, the Ganpule equation was the most accurate in predicting BMR in our healthy Japanese subjects, because the difference between the predicted and measured BMR was relatively small, and body weight had no effect on the prediction error.

  18. Different elution modes and field programming in gravitational field-flow fractionation. III. Field programming by flow-rate gradient generated by a programmable pump.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plocková, J; Chmelík, J

    2001-05-25

    Gravitational field-flow fractionation (GFFF) utilizes the Earth's gravitational field as an external force that causes the settlement of particles towards the channel accumulation wall. Hydrodynamic lift forces oppose this action by elevating particles away from the channel accumulation wall. These two counteracting forces enable modulation of the resulting force field acting on particles in GFFF. In this work, force-field programming based on modulating the magnitude of hydrodynamic lift forces was implemented via changes of flow-rate, which was accomplished by a programmable pump. Several flow-rate gradients (step gradients, linear gradients, parabolic, and combined gradients) were tested and evaluated as tools for optimization of the separation of a silica gel particle mixture. The influence of increasing amount of sample injected on the peak resolution under flow-rate gradient conditions was also investigated. This is the first time that flow-rate gradients have been implemented for programming of the resulting force field acting on particles in GFFF.

  19. Heart rate during basketball game play and volleyball drills accurately predicts oxygen uptake and energy expenditure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribbans, T D; Berg, K; Narazaki, K; Janssen, I; Gurd, B J

    2015-09-01

    There is currently little information regarding the ability of metabolic prediction equations to accurately predict oxygen uptake and exercise intensity from heart rate (HR) during intermittent sport. The purpose of the present study was to develop and, cross-validate equations appropriate for accurately predicting oxygen cost (VO2) and energy expenditure from HR during intermittent sport participation. Eleven healthy adult males (19.9±1.1yrs) were recruited to establish the relationship between %VO2peak and %HRmax during low-intensity steady state endurance (END), moderate-intensity interval (MOD) and high intensity-interval exercise (HI), as performed on a cycle ergometer. Three equations (END, MOD, and HI) for predicting %VO2peak based on %HRmax were developed. HR and VO2 were directly measured during basketball games (6 male, 20.8±1.0 yrs; 6 female, 20.0±1.3yrs) and volleyball drills (12 female; 20.8±1.0yrs). Comparisons were made between measured and predicted VO2 and energy expenditure using the 3 equations developed and 2 previously published equations. The END and MOD equations accurately predicted VO2 and energy expenditure, while the HI equation underestimated, and the previously published equations systematically overestimated VO2 and energy expenditure. Intermittent sport VO2 and energy expenditure can be accurately predicted from heart rate data using either the END (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.008-17.17) or MOD (%VO2peak=%HRmax x 1.2-32) equations. These 2 simple equations provide an accessible and cost-effective method for accurate estimation of exercise intensity and energy expenditure during intermittent sport.

  20. Earthquake Prediction Analysis Based on Empirical Seismic Rate: The M8 Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2010-07-01

    The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional error diagram (n,τ), where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is the normalized measure of space-time alarm. The most reasonable space measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the rate of target events λ(dg) in a sub-area dg. In that case the quantity H = 1-(n +τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n,τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M ≥ 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw ≥ 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 ≤ M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm. (author)

  1. Earthquake prediction analysis based on empirical seismic rate: the M8 algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

    2010-12-01

    The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local rate of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized rate of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.

  2. MEDEX 2015: Heart Rate Variability Predicts Development of Acute Mountain Sickness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Angus; Freer, Joseph; Evans, Laura; Dolci, Alberto; Crotti, Matteo; Macdonald, Jamie Hugo

    2017-09-01

    Sutherland, Angus, Joseph Freer, Laura Evans, Alberto Dolci, Matteo Crotti, and Jamie Hugo Macdonald. MEDEX 2015: Heart rate variability predicts development of acute mountain sickness. High Alt Med Biol. 18: 199-208, 2017. Acute mountain sickness (AMS) develops when the body fails to acclimatize to atmospheric changes at altitude. Preascent prediction of susceptibility to AMS would be a useful tool to prevent subsequent harm. Changes to peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) on hypoxic exposure have previously been shown to be of poor predictive value. Heart rate variability (HRV) has shown promise in the early prediction of AMS, but its use pre-expedition has not previously been investigated. We aimed to determine whether pre- and intraexpedition HRV assessment could predict susceptibility to AMS at high altitude with better diagnostic accuracy than SpO 2 . Forty-four healthy volunteers undertook an expedition in the Nepali Himalaya to >5000 m. SpO 2 and HRV parameters were recorded at rest in normoxia and in a normobaric hypoxic chamber before the expedition. On the expedition HRV parameters and SpO 2 were collected again at 3841 m. A daily Lake Louise Score was obtained to assess AMS symptomology. Low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio in normoxia (cutpoint ≤2.28 a.u.) and LF following 15 minutes of exposure to normobaric hypoxia had moderate (area under the curve ≥0.8) diagnostic accuracy. LF/HF ratio in normoxia had the highest sensitivity (85%) and specificity (88%) for predicting AMS on subsequent ascent to altitude. In contrast, pre-expedition SpO 2 measurements had poor (area under the curve <0.7) diagnostic accuracy and inferior sensitivity and specificity. Pre-ascent measurement of HRV in normoxia was found to be of better diagnostic accuracy for AMS prediction than all measures of HRV in hypoxia, and better than peripheral oxygen saturation monitoring.

  3. Improved predictions of nuclear reaction rates for astrophysics applications with the TALYS reaction code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goriely, S.; Hilaire, S.; Koning, A.J.

    2008-01-01

    Nuclear reaction rates for astrophysics applications are traditionally determined on the basis of Hauser-Feshbach reaction codes, like MOST. These codes use simplified schemes to calculate the capture reaction cross section on a given target nucleus, not only in its ground state but also on the different thermally populated states of the stellar plasma at a given temperature. Such schemes include a number of approximations that have never been tested, such as an approximate width fluctuation correction, the neglect of delayed particle emission during the electromagnetic decay cascade or the absence of the pre-equilibrium contribution at increasing incident energies. New developments have been brought to the reaction code TALYS to estimate the Maxwellian-averaged reaction rates of astrophysics relevance. These new developments give us the possibility to calculate with an improved accuracy the reaction cross sections and the corresponding astrophysics rates. The TALYS predictions for the thermonuclear rates of astrophysics relevance are presented and compared with those obtained with the MOST code on the basis of the same nuclear ingredients for nuclear structure properties, optical model potential, nuclear level densities and γ-ray strength. It is shown that, in particular, the pre-equilibrium process significantly influences the astrophysics rates of exotic neutron-rich nuclei. The reciprocity theorem traditionally used in astrophysics to determine photo-rates is also shown no to be valid for exotic nuclei. The predictions obtained with different nuclear inputs are also analyzed to provide an estimate of the theoretical uncertainties still affecting the reaction rate prediction far away from the experimentally known regions. (authors)

  4. Tax revenue and inflation rate predictions in Banda Aceh using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maulia, Eva; Miftahuddin; Sofyan, Hizir

    2018-05-01

    A country has some important parameters to achieve the welfare of the economy, such as tax revenues and inflation. One of the largest revenues of the state budget in Indonesia comes from the tax sector. Besides, the rate of inflation occurring in a country can be used as one measure, to measure economic problems that the country facing. Given the importance of tax revenue and inflation rate control in achieving economic prosperity, it is necessary to analyze the relationship and forecasting tax revenue and inflation rate. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) was chosen as the method used in this research, because of the data used in the form of multivariate time series data. This study aims to produce a VECM model with optimal lag and to predict the tax revenue and inflation rate of the VECM model. The results show that the best model for data of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Banda Aceh City is VECM with 3rd optimal lag or VECM (3). Of the seven models formed, there is a significant model that is the acceptance model of income tax. The predicted results of tax revenue and the inflation rate in Kota Banda Aceh for the next 6, 12 and 24 periods (months) obtained using VECM (3) are considered valid, since they have a minimum error value compared to other models.

  5. The evolution of helical cosmic magnetic fields as predicted by MHD closure theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saveliev, Andrey; Sigl, Guenter [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Jedamzik, Kartsen [Univ. Montpellier-2. (France). Laboratoire Univers et Particules de Montpellier

    2013-04-15

    We extend our recent derivation of the time evolution equations for the energy content of magnetic fields and turbulent motions for incompressible, homogeneous, and isotropic turbulence to include the case of non-vanishing helicity. These equations are subsequently numerically integrated in order to predict the present day primordial magnetic field strength and correlation length, depending on its initial helicity and magnetic energy density. We find that all prior analytic predictions for helical magnetic fields, such as the epoch when they become maximally helical and their subsequent growth of correlation length L {proportional_to} a{sup 1/3} and decrease of magnetic field strength B {proportional_to} a{sup -1/3} with scale factor a are well confirmed by the simulations. An initially fully helical primordial magnetic field is a factor 4 x 10{sup 4} stronger at the present epoch then its non-helical counterpart when generated during the electroweak epoch.

  6. RSA prediction of high failure rate for the uncoated Interax TKA confirmed by meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijls, Bart G; Nieuwenhuijse, Marc J; Schoones, Jan W; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; Nelissen, Rob G H H

    2012-04-01

    In a previous radiostereometric (RSA) trial the uncoated, uncemented, Interax tibial components showed excessive migration within 2 years compared to HA-coated and cemented tibial components. It was predicted that this type of fixation would have a high failure rate. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate whether this RSA prediction was correct. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the revision rate for aseptic loosening of the uncoated and cemented Interax tibial components. 3 studies were included, involving 349 Interax total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) for the comparison of uncoated and cemented fixation. There were 30 revisions: 27 uncoated and 3 cemented components. There was a 3-times higher revision rate for the uncoated Interax components than that for cemented Interax components (OR = 3; 95% CI: 1.4-7.2). This meta-analysis confirms the prediction of a previous RSA trial. The uncoated Interax components showed the highest migration and turned out to have the highest revision rate for aseptic loosening. RSA appears to enable efficient detection of an inferior design as early as 2 years postoperatively in a small group of patients.

  7. Field Test Evaluation of Effect on Cone Resistance Caused by Change in Penetration Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Rikke; Nielsen, Benjaminn Nordahl; Ibsen, Lars Bo

    2012-01-01

    in the laboratory. A change in the measured cone resistance occurs by lowering the penetration rate. This is caused by the changes in drainage conditions. Compared to the normal penetration rate of 20 mm/s, this paper illustrates that lowering the penetration rate leads to an increase in the cone resistance from 1......This paper presents how a change in cone penetration rate affects the measured cone resistance during cone penetration testing in silty soils. Regardless of soil, type the standard rate of penetration is 20 mm/s and it is generally accepted that undrained penetration occurs in clay while drained...... penetration occurs in sand. In intermediate soils such as silty soils, the standard cone penetration rate may result in drainage conditions varying from undrained to partially or fully drained conditions. Field cone penetrations tests have been conducted with different penetration rates on a test site...

  8. Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

    2016-12-01

    Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment

  9. Predictable weathering of puparial hydrocarbons of necrophagous flies for determining the postmortem interval: a field experiment using Chrysomya rufifacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guang-Hui; Jia, Zheng-Jun; Yu, Xiao-Jun; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Chen, Lu-Shi; Lv, Jun-Yao; Eric Benbow, M

    2017-05-01

    Preadult development of necrophagous flies is commonly recognized as an accurate method for estimating the minimum postmortem interval (PMImin). However, once the PMImin exceeds the duration of preadult development, the method is less accurate. Recently, fly puparial hydrocarbons were found to significantly change with weathering time in the field, indicating their potential use for PMImin estimates. However, additional studies are required to demonstrate how the weathering varies among species. In this study, the puparia of Chrysomya rufifacies were placed in the field to experience natural weathering to characterize hydrocarbon composition change over time. We found that weathering of the puparial hydrocarbons was regular and highly predictable in the field. For most of the hydrocarbons, the abundance decreased significantly and could be modeled using a modified exponent function. In addition, the weathering rate was significantly correlated with the hydrocarbon classes. The weathering rate of 2-methyl alkanes was significantly lower than that of alkenes and internal methyl alkanes, and alkenes were higher than the other two classes. For mono-methyl alkanes, the rate was significantly and positively associated with carbon chain length and branch position. These results indicate that puparial hydrocarbon weathering is highly predictable and can be used for estimating long-term PMImin.

  10. Taoshan uranium ore fields in situ blasting heap leaching rate influence factors to investigate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie Wangnan; Dong Chunming

    2014-01-01

    Taoshan ore field ore in situ blasting heap leaching out build industrial test and production process, stope leaching rate and leaching cycle is large than that, after analysis, blasting method and cloth liquid way is to affect leaching rate and leaching cycle of the main factors. This paper holds that as far as possible using stratified deep hole blasting of squeezing up ways to reduce the building pile of in-situ leaching ore block rate; Adopting effective cloth tube way, increase the leaching agent and ore contact comprehensive; Introduction of bacterial leaching, and other means to improve leaching rate, shorten production cycle, etc to solve it. (authors)

  11. Predicting diet and consumption rate differences between and within species using gut ecomorphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffen, Blaine D; Mosblack, Hallie

    2011-07-01

    1. Rapid environmental changes and pressing human needs to forecast the consequences of environmental change are increasingly driving ecology to become a predictive science. The need for effective prediction requires both the development of new tools and the refocusing of existing tools that may have previously been used primarily for purposes other than prediction. One such tool that historically has been more descriptive in nature is ecomorphology (the study of relationships between ecological roles and morphological adaptations of species and individuals). 2. Here, we examine relationships between diet and gut morphology for 15 species of brachyuran crabs, a group of pervasive and highly successful consumers for which trophic predictions would be highly valuable. 3. We show that patterns in crab stomach volume closely match some predictions of metabolic theory and demonstrate that individual diet differences and associated morphological variation reflect, at least in some instances, individual choice or diet specialization. 4. We then present examples of how stomach volume can be used to predict both the per cent herbivory of brachyuran crabs and the relative consumption rates of individual crabs. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

  12. Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A. [Canis Lupus LLC and Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin, Merrimac, Wisconsin 53561 (United States); Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 (United States); Departments of Human Oncology, Medical Physics, and Biomedical Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53792 (United States)

    2011-02-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa

  13. Per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates do not predict clinically relevant patient dose errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelms, Benjamin E.; Zhen Heming; Tome, Wolfgang A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to determine the statistical correlation between per-beam, planar IMRT QA passing rates and several clinically relevant, anatomy-based dose errors for per-patient IMRT QA. The intent is to assess the predictive power of a common conventional IMRT QA performance metric, the Gamma passing rate per beam. Methods: Ninety-six unique data sets were created by inducing four types of dose errors in 24 clinical head and neck IMRT plans, each planned with 6 MV Varian 120-leaf MLC linear accelerators using a commercial treatment planning system and step-and-shoot delivery. The error-free beams/plans were used as ''simulated measurements'' (for generating the IMRT QA dose planes and the anatomy dose metrics) to compare to the corresponding data calculated by the error-induced plans. The degree of the induced errors was tuned to mimic IMRT QA passing rates that are commonly achieved using conventional methods. Results: Analysis of clinical metrics (parotid mean doses, spinal cord max and D1cc, CTV D95, and larynx mean) vs IMRT QA Gamma analysis (3%/3 mm, 2/2, 1/1) showed that in all cases, there were only weak to moderate correlations (range of Pearson's r-values: -0.295 to 0.653). Moreover, the moderate correlations actually had positive Pearson's r-values (i.e., clinically relevant metric differences increased with increasing IMRT QA passing rate), indicating that some of the largest anatomy-based dose differences occurred in the cases of high IMRT QA passing rates, which may be called ''false negatives.'' The results also show numerous instances of false positives or cases where low IMRT QA passing rates do not imply large errors in anatomy dose metrics. In none of the cases was there correlation consistent with high predictive power of planar IMRT passing rates, i.e., in none of the cases did high IMRT QA Gamma passing rates predict low errors in anatomy dose metrics or vice versa. Conclusions: There is a lack of correlation between

  14. Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with

  15. Relaxation rates of low-field gas-phase ^129Xe storage cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limes, Mark; Saam, Brian

    2010-10-01

    A study of longitudinal nuclear relaxation rates T1 of ^129Xe and Xe-N2 mixtures in a magnetic field of 3.8 mT is presented. In this regime, intrinsic spin relaxation is dominated by the intramolecular spin-rotation interaction due to persistent xenon dimers, a mechanism that can be quelled by introducing large amounts of N2 into the storage cell. Extrinsic spin relaxation is dominated by the wall-relaxation rate, which is the primary quantity of interest for the various low-field storage cells and coatings that we have tested. Previous group work has shown that extremely long gas-phase relaxation times T1 can be obtained, but only at large magnetic fields and low xenon densities. The current work is motivated by the practical benefits of retaining hyperpolarized ^129Xe for extended periods of time in a small magnetic field.

  16. Heart Rate and Energy Expenditure in Division I Field Hockey Players During Competitive Play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sell, Katie M; Ledesma, Allison B

    2016-08-01

    Sell, KM and Ledesma, AB. Heart rate and energy expenditure in Division I field hockey players during competitive play. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2122-2128, 2016-The purpose of this study was to quantify energy expenditure and heart rate data for Division I female field hockey players during competitive play. Ten female Division I collegiate field hockey athletes (19.8 ± 1.6 years; 166.4 ± 6.1 cm; 58.2 ± 5.3 kg) completed the Yo-Yo intermittent endurance test to determine maximal heart rate. One week later, all subjects wore a heart rate monitor during a series of 3 matches in an off-season competition. Average heart rate (AvHR), average percentage of maximal heart rate (AvHR%), peak exercise heart rate (PExHR), and percentage of maximal heart rate (PExHR%), time spent in each of the predetermined heart rate zones, and caloric expenditure per minute of exercise (kcalM) were determined for all players. Differences between positions (backs, midfielders, and forwards) were assessed. No significant differences in AvHR, AvHR%, PExHR, PExHR%, and %TM were observed between playing positions. The AvHR% and PExHR% for each position fell into zones 4 (77-93% HRmax) and 5 (>93% HRmax), respectively, and significantly more time was spent in zone 4 compared with zones 1, 2, 3, and 5 across all players (p ≤ 0.05). The kcalM reflected very heavy intensity exercise. The results of this study will contribute toward understanding the sport-specific physiological demands of women's field hockey and has specific implications for the duration and schedule of training regimens.

  17. Hydrodynamic mean-field solutions of 1D exclusion processes with spatially varying hopping rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakatos, Greg; O' Brien, John; Chou, Tom [Department of Biomathematics and Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2006-03-10

    We analyse the open boundary partially asymmetric exclusion process with smoothly varying internal hopping rates in the infinite-size, mean-field limit. The mean-field equations for particle densities are written in terms of Ricatti equations with the steady-state current J as a parameter. These equations are solved both analytically and numerically. Upon imposing the boundary conditions set by the injection and extraction rates, the currents J are found self-consistently. We find a number of cases where analytic solutions can be found exactly or approximated. Results for J from asymptotic analyses for slowly varying hopping rates agree extremely well with those from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that mean-field currents asymptotically approach the exact currents in the hydrodynamic limit, as the hopping rates vary slowly over the lattice. If the forward hopping rate is greater than or less than the backward hopping rate throughout the entire chain, the three standard steady-state phases are preserved. Our analysis reveals the sensitivity of the current to the relative phase between the forward and backward hopping rate functions.

  18. Hydrodynamic mean-field solutions of 1D exclusion processes with spatially varying hopping rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lakatos, Greg; O'Brien, John; Chou, Tom

    2006-01-01

    We analyse the open boundary partially asymmetric exclusion process with smoothly varying internal hopping rates in the infinite-size, mean-field limit. The mean-field equations for particle densities are written in terms of Ricatti equations with the steady-state current J as a parameter. These equations are solved both analytically and numerically. Upon imposing the boundary conditions set by the injection and extraction rates, the currents J are found self-consistently. We find a number of cases where analytic solutions can be found exactly or approximated. Results for J from asymptotic analyses for slowly varying hopping rates agree extremely well with those from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, suggesting that mean-field currents asymptotically approach the exact currents in the hydrodynamic limit, as the hopping rates vary slowly over the lattice. If the forward hopping rate is greater than or less than the backward hopping rate throughout the entire chain, the three standard steady-state phases are preserved. Our analysis reveals the sensitivity of the current to the relative phase between the forward and backward hopping rate functions

  19. Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grauslund, J; Green, A; Sjølie, A K

    2008-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We evaluated the effect of diabetic retinopathy on 25 year survival rate among a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark. METHODS: In 1973 all diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark with onset before the age of 30 years as of 1 July 1973...... were identified (n=727). In 1981, only 627 patients were still alive and resident in Denmark. Of these, 573 (91%) participated in a clinical baseline examination, in which diabetic retinopathy was graded and other markers of diabetes measured. Mortality rate was examined in a 25 year follow....../INTERPRETATION: Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients. In combination they act even more strongly. Non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy did not affect survival rate....

  20. Precision Obtained Using an Artificial Neural Network for Predicting the Material Removal Rate in Ultrasonic Machining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaoyan Zhong

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study proposes a back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN to provide improved precision for predicting the material removal rate (MRR in ultrasonic machining. The BPANN benefits from the advantage of artificial neural networks (ANNs in dealing with complex input-output relationships without explicit mathematical functions. In our previous study, a conventional linear regression model and improved nonlinear regression model were established for modelling the MRR in ultrasonic machining to reflect the influence of machining parameters on process response. In the present work, we quantitatively compare the prediction precision obtained by the previously proposed regression models and the presently proposed BPANN model. The results of detailed analyses indicate that the BPANN model provided the highest prediction precision of the three models considered. The present work makes a positive contribution to expanding the applications of ANNs and can be considered as a guide for modelling complex problems of general machining.

  1. Somatic growth of mussels Mytilus edulis in field studies compared to predictions using BEG, DEB, and SFG models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Poul S.; Filgueira, Ramón; Riisgård, Hans Ulrik

    2014-04-01

    Prediction of somatic growth of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, based on the data from 2 field-growth studies of mussels in suspended net-bags in Danish waters was made by 3 models: the bioenergetic growth (BEG), the dynamic energy budget (DEB), and the scope for growth (SFG). Here, the standard BEG model has been expanded to include the temperature dependence of filtration rate and respiration and an ad hoc modification to ensure a smooth transition to zero ingestion as chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration approaches zero, both guided by published data. The first 21-day field study was conducted at nearly constant environmental conditions with a mean chl a concentration of C = 2.7 μg L- 1, and the observed monotonous growth in the dry weight of soft parts was best predicted by DEB while BEG and SFG models produced lower growth. The second 165-day field study was affected by large variations in chl a and temperature, and the observed growth varied accordingly, but nevertheless, DEB and SFG predicted monotonous growth in good agreement with the mean pattern while BEG mimicked the field data in response to observed changes in chl a concentration and temperature. The general features of the models were that DEB produced the best average predictions, SFG mostly underestimated growth, whereas only BEG was sensitive to variations in chl a concentration and temperature. DEB and SFG models rely on the calibration of the half-saturation coefficient to optimize the food ingestion function term to that of observed growth, and BEG is independent of observed actual growth as its predictions solely rely on the time history of the local chl a concentration and temperature.

  2. EWAM: a model for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zach, Reto; Barnard, John W.

    1985-09-01

    A computer model, EWAM (Energy, Water and Air Model), has been designed and implemented for predicting food and water ingestion, and inhalation rates of man for use in environmental assessment models. EWAM uses physiological, energetic, nutritional and physical relationships in combination with activity time budgets, and mass and energy balances. The calculated ingestion and inhalation rates are closely related. Various age and sex classes of man are taken into account. EWAM is best described as a deterministic equilibrium or steady-state model, operating on a daily time-scale, with both detailed research and more general assessment model features. The parameters of EWAM are reviewed and suitable values recommended to allow biologically meaningful predictions

  3. Frameworks to monitor and predict rates and resource usage in the ATLAS High Level Trigger

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00219969; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS High Level Trigger Farm consists of around 40,000 CPU cores which filter events at an input rate of up to 100 kHz. A costing framework is built into the high level trigger thus enabling detailed monitoring of the system and allowing for data-driven predictions to be made utilising specialist datasets. An overview is presented in to how ATLAS collects in-situ monitoring data on CPU usage during the trigger execution, and how these data are processed to yield both low level monitoring of individual selection-algorithms and high level data on the overall performance of the farm. For development and prediction purposes, ATLAS uses a special ‘Enhanced Bias’ event selection. This mechanism is explained along with how it is used to profile expected resource usage and output event rate of new physics selections, before they are executed on the actual high level trigger farm.

  4. Comparison of predicted versus measured dose rates for low-level radioactive waste cask shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macher, Martin S.

    1992-01-01

    Shippers of low-level radioactive waste must select casks which will provide sufficient shielding to keep dose rates below the federal limit of 10 mr/hr at 2 meters from the vehicle. Chem-Nuclear Systems, Inc. uses a cask selection methodology which is based on shielding analysis code predictions with an additional factor of safety applied to compensate for inhomogeneities in the waste, uncertainties in waste characterization, and inaccuracy in the calculational methods. This proven cask selection methodology is explained and suggested factors of safety are presented based on comparisons of predicted and measured dose rates. A safety factor of 2 is shown to be generally appropriate for relatively homogeneous waste and a safety factor of between 3 and 4 is shown to be generally appropriate for relatively inhomogeneous wastes. (author)

  5. Prediction of critical flow rates through power-operated relief valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdollahian, D.; Singh, A.

    1983-01-01

    Existing single-phase and two-phase critical flow models are used to predict the flow rates through the power-operated relief valves tested in the EPRI Safety and Relief Valve test program. For liquid upstream conditions, Homogeneous Equilibrium Model, Moody, Henry-Fauske and Burnell two-phase critical flow models are used for comparison with data. Under steam upstream conditions, the flow rates are predicted either by the single-phase isentropic equations or the Homogeneous Equilibrium Model, depending on the thermodynamic condition of the fluid at the choking plane. The results of the comparisons are used to specify discharge coefficients for different valves under steam and liquid upstream conditions and evaluate the existing approximate critical flow relations for a wide range of subcooled water and steam conditions

  6. Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niu, Nina N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Harvard Medical School, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Niemierko, Andrzej [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Larvie, Mykol [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Curtin, Hugh [Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Loeffler, Jay S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); McKenna, Michael J. [Harvard Medical School, Department of Otolaryngology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Shih, Helen A., E-mail: hshih@partners.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States)

    2014-05-01

    Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

  7. Pretreatment Growth Rate Predicts Radiation Response in Vestibular Schwannomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu, Nina N.; Niemierko, Andrzej; Larvie, Mykol; Curtin, Hugh; Loeffler, Jay S.; McKenna, Michael J.; Shih, Helen A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Vestibular schwannomas (VS) are often followed without initial therapeutic intervention because many tumors do not grow and radiation therapy is associated with potential adverse effects. In an effort to determine whether maximizing initial surveillance predicts for later treatment response, the predictive value of preirradiation growth rate of VS on response to radiation therapy was assessed. Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with 65 VS were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiation surgery or fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy. Pre- and postirradiation linear expansion rates were estimated using volumetric measurements on sequential magnetic resonance images (MRIs). In addition, postirradiation tumor volume change was classified as demonstrating shrinkage (ratio of volume on last follow-up MRI to MRI immediately preceding irradiation <80%), stability (ratio 80%-120%), or expansion (ratio >120%). The median pre- and postirradiation follow-up was 20.0 and 27.5 months, respectively. Seven tumors from neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) patients were excluded from statistical analyses. Results: In the 58 non-NF2 patients, there was a trend of correlation between pre- and postirradiation volume change rates (slope on linear regression, 0.29; P=.06). Tumors demonstrating postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 89%/year, and those without postirradiation expansion had a median preirradiation growth rate of 41%/year (P=.02). As the preirradiation growth rate increased, the probability of postirradiation expansion also increased. Overall, 24.1% of tumors were stable, 53.4% experienced shrinkage, and 22.5% experienced expansion. Predictors of no postirradiation tumor expansion included no prior surgery (P=.01) and slower tumor growth rate (P=.02). The control of tumors in NF2 patients was only 43%. Conclusions: Radiation therapy is an effective treatment for VS, but tumors that grow quickly preirradiation may be

  8. Prediction of rate of CO2 assimilation of leaf lettuce under low light irradiation during storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchino, T.; Harada, F.; Hu, W.

    2003-01-01

    The rate of CO 2 assimilation of leaf lettuce changed with its respiration rate and gas constitution in a storage chamber. The optimum irradiance on the surface of leaf lettuce during storage using low light irradiation can be obtained by the prediction of the rate of CO 2 assimilation. For the above mentioned purpose the following equation were derived. -kd[C]/dt=0.5(1-f)I([C]-Γ/4.5[C]+10.5Γ)-ae -bt where, k: proportional constant (4.87×10 -3 mol⋅m -2 ) [C]: CO 2 concentration (ppm), t: time (h), f: fraction of light not absorbed by chloroplasts (0.23), I: irradiance (μmol⋅m-2⋅s -1 ), Γ: CO 2 compensation point without respiration (21.5ppm), a, b: parameters (0.308μmol⋅m -2 ⋅s -1 , 0.010h -1 ). Calculated values of rate of CO 2 assimilation by the equation agreed well with experimental ones at 3.4 and 6.5μmol⋅m -2 ⋅s -1 of irradiance, so it appeared that the assimilation rate could be sufficiently predicted

  9. Predicting the temporal relationship between soil cesium-137 and erosion rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kachanoski, R.G.; De Jong, E.

    1984-01-01

    A model was developed that predicts the amount of 137 Cs remaining in soil as a function of time and erosion rate. The model accounts for atmospheric deposition, radioactive decay, tillage dilution, and erosion transport of 137 Cs, as well as seasonal differences in 137 Cs deposition and erosion rates. The model was used to estimate minimum resolution of erosion estimates based on detection limits and accuracy of 137 Cs measurement by gamma spectroscopy, as a function of time and erosion rate. The analysis showed that under Saskatchewan conditions, changes in 137 Cs at a given site can be used to estimate erosion rates between 0.5 and 10 kg m -2 yr -1 with reasonable precision, provided the sampling interval is at least 15 yr. The relationship of fraction of 137 Cs lost vs. erosion as predicted by the model was compared with other methods being used. The model was used to estimate erosion from selected Saskatchewan soils where 137 Cs levels were measured in 1966 and again in 1981. Erosion rates calculated with the model varied from 1 kg m -2 yr -1 for a sandy loam soil in continuous forage to 19 kg m -2 yr -1 for a similar soil in a crop-fallow rotation. Erosion estimates using the model were higher than those calculated by assuming that soil loss was directly proportional to 137 Cs loss, especially when 137 Cs loss was high

  10. Application of long-range order to predict unfolding rates of two-state proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harihar, B; Selvaraj, S

    2011-03-01

    Predicting the experimental unfolding rates of two-state proteins and models describing the unfolding rates of these proteins is quite limited because of the complexity present in the unfolding mechanism and the lack of experimental unfolding data compared with folding data. In this work, 25 two-state proteins characterized by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616) using a consensus set of experimental conditions were taken, and the parameter long-range order (LRO) derived from their three-dimensional structures were related with their experimental unfolding rates ln(k(u)). From the total data set of 30 proteins used by Maxwell et al. (Protein Sci 2005;14:602–616), five slow-unfolding proteins with very low unfolding rates were considered to be outliers and were not included in our data set. Except all beta structural class, LRO of both the all-alpha and mixed-class proteins showed a strong inverse correlation of r = -0.99 and -0.88, respectively, with experimental ln(k(u)). LRO shows a correlation of -0.62 with experimental ln(k(u)) for all-beta proteins. For predicting the unfolding rates, a simple statistical method has been used and linear regression equations were developed for individual structural classes of proteins using LRO, and the results obtained showed a better agreement with experimental results. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  11. Anthropogenic seismicity rates and operational parameters at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, Emily E; Lajoie, Lia J

    2013-08-02

    Geothermal power is a growing energy source; however, efforts to increase production are tempered by concern over induced earthquakes. Although increased seismicity commonly accompanies geothermal production, induced earthquake rate cannot currently be forecast on the basis of fluid injection volumes or any other operational parameters. We show that at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, the total volume of fluid extracted or injected tracks the long-term evolution of seismicity. After correcting for the aftershock rate, the net fluid volume (extracted-injected) provides the best correlation with seismicity in recent years. We model the background earthquake rate with a linear combination of injection and net production rates that allows us to track the secular development of the field as the number of earthquakes per fluid volume injected decreases over time.

  12. Water scaling in the North Sea oil and gas fields and scale prediction: An overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, M

    1997-12-31

    Water-scaling is a common and major production chemistry problem in the North Sea oil and gas fields and scale prediction has been an important means to assess the potential and extent of scale deposition. This paper presents an overview of sulphate and carbonate scaling problems in the North Sea and a review of several widely used and commercially available scale prediction software. In the paper, the water chemistries and scale types and severities are discussed relative of the geographical distribution of the fields in the North Sea. The theories behind scale prediction are then briefly described. Five scale or geochemical models are presented and various definitions of saturation index are compared and correlated. Views are the expressed on how to predict scale precipitation under some extreme conditions such as that encountered in HPHT reservoirs. 15 refs., 7 figs., 9 tabs.

  13. Prediction of natural disasters basing of chrono-and-information field characters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapunov, Valentin

    2013-04-01

    Living organisms are able to predict some future events particular catastrophic incidents. This is adaptive characters producing by evolution. The more energy produces incident the more possibility to predict one. Wild animals escaped natural hazards including tsunami (e.g. extremal tsunami in Asia December 2004). Living animals are able to predict strong phenomena of obscure nature. For example majority of animals escaped Tungus catastrophe taking place in Siberia at 1908. Wild animals are able to predict nuclear weapon experiences. The obscure characters are not typical for human, but they are fixed under probability 15%. Such were summarized by L.Vasiliev (1961). Effective theory describing such a characters is absent till now. N.Kozyrev (1991) suggested existence of unknown physical field (but gravitation and electro magnetic). The field was named "time" or "chrono". Some characters of the field appeared to be object of physical experiment. Kozyrev suggested specific role of the field for function of living organisms. Transition of biological information throw space (telepathy) and time (proscopy) may be based on characters of such a field. Hence physical chrono-and-information field is under consideration. Animals are more familiar with such a field than human. Evolutionary process experienced with possibility of extremal development of contact with such a field using highest primates. This mode of evolution appeared to stay obscure producing probable species "Wildman" (Bigfoot). Specific adaptive fitches suggest impossibility to study of such a species by usual ecological approaches. The perspective way for study of mysterious phenomena of physic is researches of this field characters.

  14. Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike Pappens

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

  15. Predicting Galaxy Star Formation Rates via the Co-evolution of Galaxies and Halos

    OpenAIRE

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.; Bosch, Frank C. van den

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy of fixed stellar mass is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, and as such, that more quiescent galaxies reside in older halos. This simple model has been remarkably successful at predicting color-based galaxy statistics at low redshift as measured in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). To further test this method with observations, we present new SDSS measurements of the galaxy ...

  16. PBODL : Parallel Bayesian Online Deep Learning for Click-Through Rate Prediction in Tencent Advertising System

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xun; Xue, Wei; Xiao, Lei; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    We describe a parallel bayesian online deep learning framework (PBODL) for click-through rate (CTR) prediction within today's Tencent advertising system, which provides quick and accurate learning of user preferences. We first explain the framework with a deep probit regression model, which is trained with probabilistic back-propagation in the mode of assumed Gaussian density filtering. Then we extend the model family to a variety of bayesian online models with increasing feature embedding ca...

  17. Sparse coding can predict primary visual cortex receptive field changes induced by abnormal visual input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Jonathan J; Dayan, Peter; Goodhill, Geoffrey J

    2013-01-01

    Receptive fields acquired through unsupervised learning of sparse representations of natural scenes have similar properties to primary visual cortex (V1) simple cell receptive fields. However, what drives in vivo development of receptive fields remains controversial. The strongest evidence for the importance of sensory experience in visual development comes from receptive field changes in animals reared with abnormal visual input. However, most sparse coding accounts have considered only normal visual input and the development of monocular receptive fields. Here, we applied three sparse coding models to binocular receptive field development across six abnormal rearing conditions. In every condition, the changes in receptive field properties previously observed experimentally were matched to a similar and highly faithful degree by all the models, suggesting that early sensory development can indeed be understood in terms of an impetus towards sparsity. As previously predicted in the literature, we found that asymmetries in inter-ocular correlation across orientations lead to orientation-specific binocular receptive fields. Finally we used our models to design a novel stimulus that, if present during rearing, is predicted by the sparsity principle to lead robustly to radically abnormal receptive fields.

  18. Determination of dose rates in beta radiation fields using extrapolation chamber and GM counter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borg, J.; Christensen, P.

    1995-01-01

    of depth-dose profiles from different beta radiation fields with E(max) values down to 156 keV. Results are also presented from studies of GM counters for use as survey instruments for monitoring beta dose rates at the workplace. Advantages of GM counters are a simple measurement technique and high...... sensitivity. GM responses were measured from exposures in different beta radiation fields using different filters in front of the GM detector and the paper discusses the possibility of using the results from GM measurements with two different filters in an unknown beta radiation field to obtain a value...

  19. Influence of GSM900 electromagnetic fields on the metabolic rate in rodents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. El Ouardi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The development of exposure devices for investigating possible effects of mobile communication systems to non-restrained animals aims at a homogenous field distribution in the area the animals occupy. In the presented 900 MHz exposure device a quite good field homogeneity of 5% (including the standing wave contribution due to internal reflections is reached in the cage region mainly by flattening the transverse field. For the standard waveguide (WR1150 without dielectric sheets this value reads 14%. The desired maximal whole body specific absorption rate (SAR of 4 W/kg in the Djungarian hamster model is achieved at an input power of only 3.7 W.

  20. Effect of rate, timing and placement of nitrogen on spring wheat in farmers' fields in the Yaqui Valley of Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz-Monasterio, I.; Naylor, R.

    2000-01-01

    The objective was to validate, in farmers' fields in the Yaqui Valley, N-management practices that had resulted, under experimental conditions, in reduction of trace-gas emissions while maintaining grain yield and quality. Trials were variously established in five different farmers' fields. The local management practice was compared with a new alternative, under various rates of N. The farmers managed all aspects of the trials, except for fertilizer application. The new N-management practice resulted in higher yield, protein and fertilizer recovery. The SPAD chlorophyll meter was found to be a promising tool for predicting grain-protein concentration. The method of application, broadcast vs. banding, did not affect fertilizer-N recovery. We conclude that it is possible to improve N-uptake efficiency in wheat grown in the Valley by delaying most of the N application close to the time of the first auxiliary irrigation. (author)

  1. Scaling the energy conversion rate from magnetic field reconnection to different bodies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mozer, F. S.; Hull, A.

    2010-01-01

    Magnetic field reconnection is often invoked to explain electromagnetic energy conversion in planetary magnetospheres, stellar coronae, and other astrophysical objects. Because of the huge dynamic range of magnetic fields in these bodies, it is important to understand energy conversion as a function of magnetic field strength and related parameters. It is conjectured theoretically and shown experimentally that the energy conversion rate per unit area in reconnection scales as the cube of an appropriately weighted magnetic field strength divided by the square root of an appropriately weighted density. With this functional dependence, the energy release in flares on the Sun, the large and rapid variation of the magnetic flux in the tail of Mercury, and the apparent absence of reconnection on Jupiter and Saturn, may be understood. Electric fields at the perihelion of the Solar Probe Plus mission may be tens of V/m.

  2. Semiclassical calculation of ionisation rate for Rydberg helium atoms in an electric field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang De-Hua

    2011-01-01

    The ionisation of Rydberg helium atoms in an electric field above the classical ionisation threshold has been examined using the semiclassical method, with particular emphasis on discussing the influence of the core scattering on the escape dynamics of electrons. The results show that the Rydberg helium atoms ionise by emitting a train of electron pulses. Unlike the case of the ionisation of Rydberg hydrogen atom in parallel electric and magnetic fields, where the pulses of the electron are caused by the external magnetic field, the pulse trains for Rydberg helium atoms are created through core scattering. Each peak in the ionisation rate corresponds to the contribution of one core-scattered combination trajectory. This fact further illustrates that the ionic core scattering leads to the chaotic property of the Rydberg helium atom in external fields. Our studies provide a simple explanation for the escape dynamics in the ionisation of nonhydrogenic atoms in external fields. (atomic and molecular physics)

  3. High-Rate Field Demonstration of Large-Alphabet Quantum Key Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-12

    count rate of Bob’s detectors. In this detector-limited regime , it is advantageous to increase M to encode as much information as possible in each...High- rate field demonstration of large-alphabet quantum key distribution Catherine Lee,1, 2 Darius Bunandar,1 Zheshen Zhang,1 Gregory R. Steinbrecher...October 12, 2016) 2 Quantum key distribution (QKD) enables secure symmetric key exchange for information-theoretically secure com- munication via one-time

  4. Mass gathering medicine: a predictive model for patient presentation and transport rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbon, P; Bridgewater, F H; Smith, C

    2001-01-01

    This paper reports on research into the influence of environmental factors (including crowd size, temperature, humidity, and venue type) on the number of patients and the patient problems presenting to first-aid services at large, public events in Australia. Regression models were developed to predict rates of patient presentation and of transportation-to-a-hospital for future mass gatherings. To develop a data set and predictive model that can be applied across venues and types of mass gathering events that is not venue or event specific. Data collected will allow informed event planning for future mass gatherings for which health care services are required. Mass gatherings were defined as public events attended by in excess of 25,000 people. Over a period of 12 months, 201 mass gatherings attended by a combined audience in excess of 12 million people were surveyed throughout Australia. The survey was undertaken by St. John Ambulance Australia personnel. The researchers collected data on the incidence and type of patients presenting for treatment and on the environmental factors that may influence these presentations. A standard reporting format and definition of event geography was employed to overcome the event-specific nature of many previous surveys. There are 11,956 patients in the sample. The patient presentation rate across all event types was 0.992/1,000 attendees, and the transportation-to-hospital rate was 0.027/1,000 persons in attendance. The rates of patient presentations declined slightly as crowd sizes increased. The weather (particularly the relative humidity) was related positively to an increase in the rates of presentations. Other factors that influenced the number and type of patients presenting were the mobility of the crowd, the availability of alcohol, the event being enclosed by a boundary, and the number of patient-care personnel on duty. Three regression models were developed to predict presentation rates at future events. Several

  5. Predicting how altering propagule pressure changes establishment rates of biological invaders across species pools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockerhoff, Eckehard G; Kimberley, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M; Haack, Robert A; Cavey, Joseph F

    2014-03-01

    Biological invasions resulting from international trade can cause major environmental and economic impacts. Propagule pressure is perhaps the most important factor influencing establishment, although actual arrival rates of species are rarely recorded. Furthermore, the pool of potential invaders includes many species that vary in their arrival rate and establishment potential. Therefore, we stress that it is essential to consider the size and composition of species pools arriving from source regions when estimating probabilities of establishment and effects of pathway infestation rates. To address this, we developed a novel framework and modeling approach to enable prediction of future establishments in relation to changes in arrival rate across entire species pools. We utilized 13 828 border interception records from the United States and New Zealand for 444 true bark beetle (Scolytinae) and longhorned beetle (Cerambycidae) species detected between 1949 and 2008 as proxies for arrival rates to model the relationship between arrival and establishment rates. Nonlinearity in this relationship implies that measures intended to reduce the unintended transport of potential invaders (such as phytosanitary treatments) must be highly effective in order to substantially reduce the rate of future invasions, particularly if trade volumes continue to increase.

  6. Reservoir computer predictions for the Three Meter magnetic field time evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perevalov, A.; Rojas, R.; Lathrop, D. P.; Shani, I.; Hunt, B. R.

    2017-12-01

    The source of the Earth's magnetic field is the turbulent flow of liquid metal in the outer core. Our experiment's goal is to create Earth-like dynamo, to explore the mechanisms and to understand the dynamics of the magnetic and velocity fields. Since it is a complicated system, predictions of the magnetic field is a challenging problem. We present results of mimicking the three Meter experiment by a reservoir computer deep learning algorithm. The experiment is a three-meter diameter outer sphere and a one-meter diameter inner sphere with the gap filled with liquid sodium. The spheres can rotate up to 4 and 14 Hz respectively, giving a Reynolds number near to 108. Two external electromagnets apply magnetic fields, while an array of 31 external and 2 internal Hall sensors measure the resulting induced fields. We use this magnetic probe data to train a reservoir computer to predict the 3M time evolution and mimic waves in the experiment. Surprisingly accurate predictions can be made for several magnetic dipole time scales. This shows that such a complicated MHD system's behavior can be predicted. We gratefully acknowledge support from NSF EAR-1417148.

  7. Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knäbel, Anja; Scheringer, Martin; Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2016-04-05

    Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling.

  8. Specific absorption rate and electric field measurements in the near field of six mobile phone base station antennas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toivonen, Tommi; Toivo, Tim; Puranen, Lauri; Jokela, Kari

    2009-05-01

    In this article, the exposure to radio frequency electromagnetic fields was studied in close proximity (distances of 10, 100, 300, and 600 mm) to six base station antennas. The specific absorption rate (SAR) in 800 mm x 500 mm x 200 mm box phantom as well as unperturbed electric field (E) in air was measured. The results were used to determine whether the measurement of local maximum of unperturbed electric field can be used as a compliance check for local exposure. Also, the conservativeness of this assessment method compared to the ICNIRP basic restriction was studied. Moreover, the assessment of whole-body exposure was discussed and the distance ranges presented in which the ICNIRP limit for local exposure could be exceeded before the limit for whole-body SAR. These results show that the electric field measurement alone can be used for easy compliance check for the local exposure at all distances and for all antenna types studied. However, in some cases when the local peak value of E was compared directly to the ICNIRP reference level for unperturbed E, the exposure was overestimated only very slightly (by factor 1.1) compared to the basic restriction for localized SAR in a human, and hence these results can not be generalized to all antenna types. Moreover, it was shown that the limit for localized exposure could be exceeded before the limit for the whole-body average SAR, if the distance to the antenna was less than 240 mm. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. MERGERS IN ΛCDM: UNCERTAINTIES IN THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS AND INTERPRETATIONS OF THE MERGER RATE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopkins, Philip F.; Bundy, Kevin; Wetzel, Andrew; Ma, Chung-Pei; Croton, Darren; Khochfar, Sadegh; Hernquist, Lars; Genel, Shy; Van den Bosch, Frank; Somerville, Rachel S.; Keres, Dusan; Stewart, Kyle; Younger, Joshua D.

    2010-01-01

    Different theoretical methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy-galaxy merger rates. We examine how this arises and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Modeling of dark matter and galaxy inspiral/merger times contribute factor of ∼2 uncertainties. Different estimates of the halo-halo merger rate, the subhalo 'destruction' rate, and the halo merger rate with some dynamical friction time delay for galaxy-galaxy mergers, agree to within this factor of ∼2, provided proper care is taken to define mergers consistently. There are some caveats: if halo/subhalo masses are not appropriately defined the major-merger rate can be dramatically suppressed, and in models with 'orphan' galaxies and under-resolved subhalos the merger timescale can be severely over-estimated. The dominant differences in galaxy-galaxy merger rates between models owe to the treatment of the baryonic physics. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations without strong feedback and some older semi-analytic models (SAMs), with known discrepancies in mass functions, can be biased by large factors (∼5) in predicted merger rates. However, provided that models yield a reasonable match to the total galaxy mass function, the differences in properties of central galaxies are sufficiently small to alone contribute small (factor of ∼1.5) additional systematics to merger rate predictions. But variations in the baryonic physics of satellite galaxies in models can also have a dramatic effect on merger rates. The well-known problem of satellite 'over-quenching' in most current SAMs-whereby SAM satellite populations are too efficiently stripped of their gas-could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Models in which the masses of satellites are fixed by observations (or SAMs adjusted to resolve this 'over-quenching') tend to predict higher merger rates, but with factor of ∼2 uncertainties stemming from the uncertainty in those

  10. Motion Vector field improvement for picture rate conversion with reduced Halo

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, M.J.W.; Haan, de G.; Girod, B.; Bouman, C.A.; Steinbach, E.G.

    2001-01-01

    The quality of the interpolated images in picture rate upconversion is predominantly dependent on the accuracy of the motion vector fields. Block based MEs typically yield incorrect vectors in occlusion areas, which leads to an annoying halo in the upconverted video sequences. In the past we have

  11. A Direct inverse model to determine permeability fields from pressure and flow rate measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, G.K.; Fokker, P.A.; Wilschut, F.; Zijl, W.

    2008-01-01

    The determination of the permeability field from pressure and flow rate measurements in wells is a key problem in reservoir engineering. This paper presents a Double Constraint method for inverse modeling that is an example of direct inverse modeling. The method is used with a standard

  12. Using Norm-Based Appeals to Increase Response Rates in Evaluation Research: A Field Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Shalini; Stokols, Daniel; Marino, Anne Heberger

    2012-01-01

    A field experiment was conducted to test the effectiveness of norm-based persuasive messages for increasing response rates in online survey research. Participants in an interdisciplinary conference were asked to complete two successive postconference surveys and randomly assigned to one of two groups at each time point. The experimental group…

  13. Using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brissaud, Florent

    2017-01-01

    The IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 functional safety standards encourage the use of field feedback to estimate the failure rates of safety-related systems, which is preferred than generic data. In some cases (if “Route 2_H” is adopted for the 'hardware safety integrity constraints”), this is even a requirement. This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals, depending if the failures are detected on-line (called 'detected failures', e.g. by automatic diagnostic tests) or only revealed by proof tests (called 'undetected failures'). Examples show that for the same duration and number of failures observed, the estimated failure rates are basically higher for “undetected failures” because, in this case, the duration observed includes intervals of time where it is unknown that the elements have failed. This points out the need of using a proper approach for failure rates estimation, especially for failures that are not detected on-line. Then, this paper proposes an approach to use the estimated failure rates, with their uncertainties, for PFDavg and PFH assessment with upper confidence bounds, in accordance with IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 requirements. Examples finally show that the highest SIL that can be claimed for a safety function can be limited by the 90% upper confidence bound of PFDavg or PFH. The requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 relating to the data collection and analysis should therefore be properly considered for the study of all safety-related systems. - Highlights: • This paper deals with requirements of the IEC 61508 and IEC 61511 for using field feedback to estimate failure rates of safety-related systems. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are detected on-line. • This paper presents how to estimate the failure rates from field feedback with confidence intervals for failures that are only revealed by

  14. On the adequacy of wall functions to predict condensation rates from steam-noncondensable gas mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dehbi, A., E-mail: abdel.dehbi@psi.ch

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: • Work investigates the effect of near-wall mesh resolution on CFD predictions. • Case study: turbulent condensation in the presence of noncondensable gases. • Wall functions largely underpredict condensation rates at boundary layer onset. • When boundary layer is developed, wall functions predictions are reasonable. • Prescribed wall functions must be compatible with prevailing flow regime. - Abstract: As one looks forward to applying CFD based methods to simulate turbulent flows in larger volumes up to containment scales, the mesh resolution, especially near the walls, becomes one of the main issues dictating the feasibility of the simulation. The wall-function approach is a natural choice to minimize the computational size of the problem and make it tractable. In the current investigation, we compare the wall-function to the fully resolved boundary layer approaches for the prediction of vapor condensation rates on cold walls in the presence of noncondensable gases. We simulate three sets of geometric configurations. The first two sets relate to domains which are small (height of 2 m) and medium (height 4.8 m), and for which experimental heat transfer data are available. In the third set, we look at a hypothetical large 2D rectangular domain in which the condenser height is comparable to that of typical NPP containments (20 m). In the developing region of the boundary layer, it is found that the wall function treatment leads to substantial deviations from the wall resolved approach and available experimental data. Further downstream, however, when the boundary layer is fully developed, the discrepancy is greatly reduced. It is therefore concluded that the wall-function formulation is able to provide predictions of condensation rates that are similar to wall-resolved treatments in simple forced flows for which fully developed boundary layers can be assumed over most of the domain. Care must however be exercised to ensure the chosen wall

  15. Reduction of the Earth's magnetic field inhibits growth rates of model cancer cell lines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Carlos F; Portelli, Lucas; McCabe, Kevin; Hernandez, Mark; Barnes, Frank

    2010-12-01

    Small alterations in static magnetic fields have been shown to affect certain chemical reaction rates ex vivo. In this manuscript, we present data demonstrating that similar small changes in static magnetic fields between individual cell culture incubators results in significantly altered cell cycle rates for multiple cancer-derived cell lines. This change as assessed by cell number is not a result of apoptosis, necrosis, or cell cycle alterations. While the underlying mechanism is unclear, the implications for all cell culture experiments are clear; static magnetic field conditions within incubators must be considered and/or controlled just as one does for temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  16. Predicting protein folding rate change upon point mutation using residue-level coevolutionary information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallik, Saurav; Das, Smita; Kundu, Sudip

    2016-01-01

    Change in folding kinetics of globular proteins upon point mutation is crucial to a wide spectrum of biological research, such as protein misfolding, toxicity, and aggregations. Here we seek to address whether residue-level coevolutionary information of globular proteins can be informative to folding rate changes upon point mutations. Generating residue-level coevolutionary networks of globular proteins, we analyze three parameters: relative coevolution order (rCEO), network density (ND), and characteristic path length (CPL). A point mutation is considered to be equivalent to a node deletion of this network and respective percentage changes in rCEO, ND, CPL are found linearly correlated (0.84, 0.73, and -0.61, respectively) with experimental folding rate changes. The three parameters predict the folding rate change upon a point mutation with 0.031, 0.045, and 0.059 standard errors, respectively. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Prediction of corrosion rates of water distribution pipelines according to aggressive corrosive water in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, W S; Yu, M J; Lee, H D

    2004-01-01

    The drinking water network serving Korea has been used for almost 100 years. Therefore, pipelines have suffered various degrees of deterioration due to aggressive environments. The pipe breaks were caused by in-external corrosion, water hammer, surface loading, etc. In this paper, we focused on describing corrosion status in water distribution pipes in Korea and reviewing some methods to predict corrosion rates. Results indicate that corrosive water of lakes was more aggressive than river water and the winter was more aggressive compared to other seasons. The roughness growth rates of Dongbok lake showed 0.23 mm/year. The high variation of corrosion rates is controlled by the aging pipes and smaller diameter. Also the phenolphthalein test on a cementitious core of cement mortar lined ductile cast iron pipe indicated the pipes over 15 years old had lost 50-100% of their lime active cross sectional area.

  18. Effect of extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields on growth rate and morphology of bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inhan-Garip, Ayse; Aksu, Burak; Akan, Zafer; Akakin, Dilek; Ozaydin, A Nilufer; San, Tangul

    2011-12-01

    To determine the effect of extremely low frequency (bacteria and to determine any morphological changes that might have been caused by ELF-EMF. Six bacterial strains, three Gram-negative and three Gram-positive were subjected to 50 Hz, 0.5 mT ELF-EMF for 6 h. To determine growth rate after ELF-EMF application, bacteria exposed to ELF-EMF for 3 h were collected, transferred to fresh medium and cultured without field application for another 4 h. Growth-rate was determined by optical density (OD) measurements made every hour. Morphological changes were determined with Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) for two gram-negative and two gram-positive strains collected after 3 h of field application. A decrease in growth rate with respect to control samples was observed for all strains during ELF-EMF application. The decrease in growth-rate continued when exposed bacteria were cultured without field application. Significant ultrastructural changes were observed in all bacterial strains, which were seen to resemble the alterations caused by cationic peptides. This study shows that ELF-EMF induces a decrease in growth rate and morphological changes for both Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria.

  19. Development of a high sensitivity pinhole type gamma camera using semiconductors for low dose rate fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ueno, Yuichiro; Takahashi, Isao; Ishitsu, Takafumi; Tadokoro, Takahiro; Okada, Koichi; Nagumo, Yasushi; Fujishima, Yasutake; Yoshida, Akira; Umegaki, Kikuo

    2018-06-01

    We developed a pinhole type gamma camera, using a compact detector module of a pixelated CdTe semiconductor, which has suitable sensitivity and quantitative accuracy for low dose rate fields. In order to improve the sensitivity of the pinhole type semiconductor gamma camera, we adopted three methods: a signal processing method to set the discriminating level lower, a high sensitivity pinhole collimator and a smoothing image filter that improves the efficiency of the source identification. We tested basic performances of the developed gamma camera and carefully examined effects of the three methods. From the sensitivity test, we found that the effective sensitivity was about 21 times higher than that of the gamma camera for high dose rate fields which we had previously developed. We confirmed that the gamma camera had sufficient sensitivity and high quantitative accuracy; for example, a weak hot spot (0.9 μSv/h) around a tree root could be detected within 45 min in a low dose rate field test, and errors of measured dose rates with point sources were less than 7% in a dose rate accuracy test.

  20. Validating Whole-Airway CFD Predictions of DPI Aerosol Deposition at Multiple Flow Rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longest, P Worth; Tian, Geng; Khajeh-Hosseini-Dalasm, Navvab; Hindle, Michael

    2016-12-01

    The objective of this study was to compare aerosol deposition predictions of a new whole-airway CFD model with available in vivo data for a dry powder inhaler (DPI) considered across multiple inhalation waveforms, which affect both the particle size distribution (PSD) and particle deposition. The Novolizer DPI with a budesonide formulation was selected based on the availability of 2D gamma scintigraphy data in humans for three different well-defined inhalation waveforms. Initial in vitro cascade impaction experiments were conducted at multiple constant (square-wave) particle sizing flow rates to characterize PSDs. The whole-airway CFD modeling approach implemented the experimentally determined PSDs at the point of aerosol formation in the inhaler. Complete characteristic airway geometries for an adult were evaluated through the lobar bronchi, followed by stochastic individual pathway (SIP) approximations through the tracheobronchial region and new acinar moving wall models of the alveolar region. It was determined that the PSD used for each inhalation waveform should be based on a constant particle sizing flow rate equal to the average of the inhalation waveform's peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR) and mean flow rate [i.e., AVG(PIFR, Mean)]. Using this technique, agreement with the in vivo data was acceptable with <15% relative differences averaged across the three regions considered for all inhalation waveforms. Defining a peripheral to central deposition ratio (P/C) based on alveolar and tracheobronchial compartments, respectively, large flow-rate-dependent differences were observed, which were not evident in the original 2D in vivo data. The agreement between the CFD predictions and in vivo data was dependent on accurate initial estimates of the PSD, emphasizing the need for a combination in vitro-in silico approach. Furthermore, use of the AVG(PIFR, Mean) value was identified as a potentially useful method for characterizing a DPI aerosol at a constant flow rate.

  1. Accomplishments and Compromises in Prediction Research for World Records and Best Performances in Track and Field and Swimming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yuanlong; Paul, Stanley; Fu, Frank H.

    2012-01-01

    The conductors of this study reviewed prediction research and studied the accomplishments and compromises in predicting world records and best performances in track and field and swimming. The results of the study showed that prediction research only promises to describe the historical trends in track and field and swimming performances, to study…

  2. Predicting rates of isotopic turnover across the animal kingdom: a synthesis of existing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Stephen M; Crowther, Thomas W

    2015-05-01

    The stable isotopes of carbon ((12)C, (13)C) and nitrogen ((14)N, (15)N) represent powerful tools in food web ecology, providing a wide range of dietary information in animal consumers. However, identifying the temporal window over which a consumer's isotopic signature reflects its diet requires an understanding of elemental incorporation, a process that varies from days to years across species and tissue types. Though theory predicts body size and temperature are likely to control incorporation rates, this has not been tested empirically across a morphologically and phylogenetically diverse range of taxa. Readily available estimates of this relationship would, however, aid in the design of stable isotope food web investigations and improve the interpretation of isotopic data collected from natural systems. Using literature-derived turnover estimates from animal species ranging in size from 1 mg to 2000 kg, we develop a predictive tool for stable isotope ecologists, allowing for estimation of incorporation rates in the structural tissues of entirely novel taxa. In keeping with metabolic scaling theory, we show that isotopic turnover rates of carbon and nitrogen in whole organisms and muscle tissue scale allometrically with body mass raised approximately to the power -0.19, an effect modulated by body temperature. This relationship did not, however, apply to incorporation rates in splanchnic tissues, which were instead dependent on the thermoregulation tactic employed by an organism, being considerably faster in endotherms than ectotherms. We believe the predictive turnover equations we provide can improve the design of experiments and interpretation of results obtained in future stable isotopic food web studies. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

  3. Weight suppression predicts total weight gain and rate of weight gain in outpatients with anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Frances A; Boden, Joseph M; Jordan, Jennifer; McIntosh, Virginia V W; Bulik, Cynthia M; Joyce, Peter R

    2015-11-01

    The present study sought to replicate the finding of Wildes and Marcus, Behav Res Ther, 50, 266-274, 2012 that higher levels of weight suppression at pretreatment predict greater total weight gain, faster rate of weight gain, and bulimic symptoms amongst patients admitted with anorexia nervosa. Participants were 56 women with anorexia nervosa diagnosed by using strict or lenient weight criteria, who were participating in a randomized controlled psychotherapy trial (McIntosh et al., Am J Psychiatry, 162, 741-747, 2005). Thirty-five women completed outpatient treatment and post-treatment assessment. Weight suppression was the discrepancy between highest lifetime weight at adult height and weight at pretreatment assessment. Outcome variables were total weight gain, rate of weight gain, and bulimic symptoms in the month prior to post-treatment assessment [assessed using the Eating Disorders Examination (Fairburn et al., Binge-Eating: Nature, Assessment and Treatment. New York: Guilford, 1993)]. Weight suppression was positively associated with total weight gain and rate of weight gain over treatment. Regression models showed that this association could not be explained by covariates (age at onset of anorexia nervosa and treatment modality). Weight suppression was not significantly associated with bulimic symptoms in the month prior to post-treatment assessment, regardless of whether bulimic symptoms were examined as continuous or dichotomous variables. The present study reinforces the previous finding that weight suppression predicts total weight gain and rate of weight gain amongst patients being treated for anorexia nervosa. Methodological issues may explain the failure of the present study to find that weight suppression predicts bulimic symptoms. Weight suppression at pretreatment for anorexia nervosa should be assessed routinely and may inform treatment planning. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Coupled force-balance and particle-occupation rate equations for high-field electron transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lei, X. L.

    2008-01-01

    It is pointed out that in the framework of balance-equation approach, the coupled force-balance and particle-occupation rate equations can be used as a complete set of equations to determine the high-field transport of semiconductors in both strong and weak electron-electron interaction limits. We call to attention that the occupation rate equation conserves the total particle number and maintains the energy balance of the relative electron system, and there is no need to introduce any other term in it. The addition of an energy-drift term in the particle-occupation rate equation [Phys. Rev. B 71, 195205 (2005)] is physically inadequate for the violation of the total particle-number conservation and the energy balance. It may lead to a substantial unphysical increase of the total particle number by the application of a dc electric field

  5. Can we rely on predicted basal metabolic rate in chronic pancreatitis outpatients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olesen, Søren Schou; Holst, Mette; Køhler, Marianne; Drewes, Asbjørn Mohr; Rasmussen, Henrik Højgaard

    2015-04-01

    Malnutrition is a common complication to chronic pancreatitis (CP) and many patients need nutritional support. An accurate estimation of the basal metabolic rate (BMR) is essential when appropriate nutritional support is to be initiated, but in the clinical settings BMR is cumbersome to measure. We therefore investigated whether BMR can be reliable predicted from a standard formula (the Harris-Benedict equation) in CP outpatients. Twenty-eight patients with clinical stable CP and no current alcohol abuse were enrolled. Patients were stratified according to nutritional risk using the Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 system. Body composition was estimated using bioelectrical impedance. BMR was measured using indirect calorimetry and predicted using the Harris-Benedict equation based on anthropometric data. The average predicted BMR was 1371 ± 216 kcal/day compared to an average measured BMR of 1399 ± 231 kcal/day (P = 0.4). The corresponding limits of agreement were -347 to 290 kcal/day. Twenty-two patients (79%) had a measured BMR between 85 and 115% of the predicted BMR. When analysing patients stratified according to nutritional risk profiles, no differences between predicted and measured BMR were evident for any of the risk profile subgroups (all P > 0.2). The BMR was correlated to fat free mass determined by bioelectrical impedance (rho = 0.55; P = 0.003), while no effect modification was seen from nutritional risk stratification in a linear regression analysis (P = 0.4). The Harris-Benedict equation reliable predicts the measured BMR in four out of five clinical stable CP outpatients with no current alcohol abuse. Copyright © 2015 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Not an Oxymoron: Some X-ray Binary Pulsars with Enormous Spinup Rates Reveal Weak Magnetic Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christodoulou, D. M.; Laycock, S. G. T.; Kazanas, D.

    2018-05-01

    Three high-mass X-ray binaries have been discovered recently exhibiting enormous spinup rates. Conventional accretion theory predicts extremely high surface dipolar magnetic fields that we believe are unphysical. Instead, we propose quite the opposite scenario: some of these pulsars exhibit weak magnetic fields, so much so that their magnetospheres are crushed by the weight of inflowing matter. The enormous spinup rate is achieved before inflowing matter reaches the pulsar's surface as the penetrating inner disk transfers its excess angular momentum to the receding magnetosphere which, in turn, applies a powerful spinup torque to the pulsar. This mechanism also works in reverse: it spins a pulsar down when the magnetosphere expands beyond corotation and finds itself rotating faster than the accretion disk which then exerts a powerful retarding torque to the magnetic field and to the pulsar itself. The above scenaria cannot be accommodated within the context of neutron-star accretion processes occurring near spin equilibrium, thus they constitute a step toward a new theory of extreme (far from equilibrium) accretion phenomena.

  7. The effect of changing the magnetic field strength on HiPIMS deposition rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, J W; Mishra, A; Kelly, P J

    2015-01-01

    The marked difference in behaviour between HiPIMS and conventional dc or pulsed-dc magnetron sputtering discharges with changing magnetic field strengths is demonstrated through measurements of deposition rate. To provide a comparison between techniques the same circular magnetron was operated in the three excitation modes at a fixed average power of 680 W and a pressure of 0.54 Pa in the non-reactive sputtering of titanium. The total magnetic field strength B at the cathode surface in the middle of the racetrack was varied from 195 to 380 G. DC and pulsed-dc discharges show the expected behaviour that deposition rates fall with decreasing B (here by ∼25–40%), however the opposite trend is observed in HiPIMS with deposition rates rising by a factor of 2 over the same decrease in B.These observations are understood from the stand point of the different composition and transport processes of the depositing metal flux between the techniques. In HiPIMS, this flux is largely ionic and slow post-ionized sputtered particles are subject to strong back attraction to the target by a retarding plasma potential structure ahead of them. The height of this potential barrier is known to increase with increasing B.From a simple phenomenological model of the sputtered particles fluxes, and using the measured deposition rates from the different techniques as inputs, the combined probabilities of ionization, α, and back attraction, β, of the metal species in HiPIMS has been calculated. There is a clear fall in αβ (from ∼0.9 to ∼0.7) with decreasing B-field strengths, we argue primarily due to a weakening of electrostatic ion back attraction, so leading to higher deposition rates. The results indicate that careful design of magnetron field strengths should be considered to optimise HiPIMS deposition rates. (paper)

  8. Computational Model Prediction and Biological Validation Using Simplified Mixed Field Exposures for the Development of a GCR Reference Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hada, M.; Rhone, J.; Beitman, A.; Saganti, P.; Plante, I.; Ponomarev, A.; Slaba, T.; Patel, Z.

    2018-01-01

    The yield of chromosomal aberrations has been shown to increase in the lymphocytes of astronauts after long-duration missions of several months in space. Chromosome exchanges, especially translocations, are positively correlated with many cancers and are therefore a potential biomarker of cancer risk associated with radiation exposure. Although extensive studies have been carried out on the induction of chromosomal aberrations by low- and high-LET radiation in human lymphocytes, fibroblasts, and epithelial cells exposed in vitro, there is a lack of data on chromosome aberrations induced by low dose-rate chronic exposure and mixed field beams such as those expected in space. Chromosome aberration studies at NSRL will provide the biological validation needed to extend the computational models over a broader range of experimental conditions (more complicated mixed fields leading up to the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) simulator), helping to reduce uncertainties in radiation quality effects and dose-rate dependence in cancer risk models. These models can then be used to answer some of the open questions regarding requirements for a full GCR reference field, including particle type and number, energy, dose rate, and delivery order. In this study, we designed a simplified mixed field beam with a combination of proton, helium, oxygen, and iron ions with shielding or proton, helium, oxygen, and titanium without shielding. Human fibroblasts cells were irradiated with these mixed field beam as well as each single beam with acute and chronic dose rate, and chromosome aberrations (CA) were measured with 3-color fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting methods. Frequency and type of CA induced with acute dose rate and chronic dose rates with single and mixed field beam will be discussed. A computational chromosome and radiation-induced DNA damage model, BDSTRACKS (Biological Damage by Stochastic Tracks), was updated to simulate various types of CA induced by

  9. Development of dynamic compartment models for prediction of radionuclide behaviors in rice paddy fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takahashi, Tomoyuki; Tomita, Ken'ichi; Yamamoto, Kazuhide; Uchida, Shigeo

    2007-01-01

    We are developing dynamic compartment models for prediction of behaviors of some important radionuclides in rice paddy fields for safety assessment of nuclear facilities. For a verification of these models, we report calculations for several different deposition patterns of radionuclides. (author)

  10. Prediction of the Low Frequency Wave Field on Open Coastal Beaches

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ozkan-Haller, H. T

    2005-01-01

    ... (both abrupt and gradual) affect the resulting low frequency wave climate. 3. The assessment of the importance of interactions between different modes of time-varying motions in the nearshore region, as well as interactions between these modes and the incident wave field. 4. To arrive at a predictive understanding of low frequency motions.

  11. Full-field peak pressure prediction of shock waves from underwater explosion of cylindrical charges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, Lei; Guo, Rui; Gao, Ke; Zeng, Ming Chao

    2017-01-01

    Cylindrical charge is a main form in most application of explosives. By employing numerical calculation and an indirect mapping method, the relation between peak pressures from underwater explosion of cylindrical and spherical charges is investigated, and further a model to predict full-field peak

  12. Persistence length of wormlike micelles composed of ionic surfactants: self-consistent-field predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauw, Y.; Leermakers, F.A.M.; Cohen Stuart, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    The persistence length of a wormlike micelle composed of ionic surfactants CnEmXk in an aqueous solvent is predicted by means of the self-consistent-field theory where CnEm is the conventional nonionic surfactant and X-k is an additional sequence of k weakly charged (pH-dependent) segments. By

  13. Mentoring Support and Power: A Three Year Predictive Field Study on Protege Networking and Career Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blickle, Gerhard; Witzki, Alexander H.; Schneider, Paula B.

    2009-01-01

    Career success of early employees was analyzed from a power perspective and a developmental network perspective. In a predictive field study with 112 employees mentoring support and mentors' power were assessed in the first wave, employees' networking was assessed after two years, and career success (i.e. income and hierarchical position) and…

  14. Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guixeres, Jaime; Bigné, Enrique; Ausín Azofra, Jose M; Alcañiz Raya, Mariano; Colomer Granero, Adrián; Fuentes Hurtado, Félix; Naranjo Ornedo, Valery

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube) can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking). Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy) and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199). The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube.

  15. Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Guixeres

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking. Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199. The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube.

  16. Consumer Neuroscience-Based Metrics Predict Recall, Liking and Viewing Rates in Online Advertising

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guixeres, Jaime; Bigné, Enrique; Ausín Azofra, Jose M.; Alcañiz Raya, Mariano; Colomer Granero, Adrián; Fuentes Hurtado, Félix; Naranjo Ornedo, Valery

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to investigate whether the effectiveness of a new ad on digital channels (YouTube) can be predicted by using neural networks and neuroscience-based metrics (brain response, heart rate variability and eye tracking). Neurophysiological records from 35 participants were exposed to 8 relevant TV Super Bowl commercials. Correlations between neurophysiological-based metrics, ad recall, ad liking, the ACE metrix score and the number of views on YouTube during a year were investigated. Our findings suggest a significant correlation between neuroscience metrics and self-reported of ad effectiveness and the direct number of views on the YouTube channel. In addition, and using an artificial neural network based on neuroscience metrics, the model classifies (82.9% of average accuracy) and estimate the number of online views (mean error of 0.199). The results highlight the validity of neuromarketing-based techniques for predicting the success of advertising responses. Practitioners can consider the proposed methodology at the design stages of advertising content, thus enhancing advertising effectiveness. The study pioneers the use of neurophysiological methods in predicting advertising success in a digital context. This is the first article that has examined whether these measures could actually be used for predicting views for advertising on YouTube. PMID:29163251

  17. Prediction of Near-Field Wave Attenuation Due to a Spherical Blast Source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jae-Kwang; Park, Duhee

    2017-11-01

    Empirical and theoretical far-field attenuation relationships, which do not capture the near-field response, are most often used to predict the peak amplitude of blast wave. Jiang et al. (Vibration due to a buried explosive source. PhD Thesis, Curtin University, Western Australian School of Mines, 1993) present rigorous wave equations that simulates the near-field attenuation to a spherical blast source in damped and undamped media. However, the effect of loading frequency and velocity of the media have not yet been investigated. We perform a suite of axisymmetric, dynamic finite difference analyses to simulate the propagation of stress waves induced by spherical blast source and to quantify the near-field attenuation. A broad range of loading frequencies, wave velocities, and damping ratios are used in the simulations. The near-field effect is revealed to be proportional to the rise time of the impulse load and wave velocity. We propose an empirical additive function to the theoretical far-field attenuation curve to predict the near-field range and attenuation. The proposed curve is validated against measurements recorded in a test blast.

  18. A quantitative prediction model of SCC rate for nuclear structure materials in high temperature water based on crack tip creep strain rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, F.Q.; Xue, H.; Zhao, L.Y.; Fang, X.R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Creep is considered to be the primary mechanical factor of crack tip film degradation. • The prediction model of SCC rate is based on crack tip creep strain rate. • The SCC rate calculated at the secondary stage of creep is recommended. • The effect of stress intensity factor on SCC growth rate is discussed. - Abstract: The quantitative prediction of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of structure materials is essential in safety assessment of nuclear power plants. A new quantitative prediction model is proposed by combining the Ford–Andresen model, a crack tip creep model and an elastic–plastic finite element method. The creep at the crack tip is considered to be the primary mechanical factor of protective film degradation, and the creep strain rate at the crack tip is suggested as primary mechanical factor in predicting the SCC rate. The SCC rates at secondary stage of creep are recommended when using the approach introduced in this study to predict the SCC rates of materials in high temperature water. The proposed approach can be used to understand the SCC crack growth in structural materials of light water reactors

  19. The relationship between body mass and field metabolic rate among individual birds and mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Isaac, Nick J B; Reuman, Daniel C

    2013-09-01

    1. The power-law dependence of metabolic rate on body mass has major implications at every level of ecological organization. However, the overwhelming majority of studies examining this relationship have used basal or resting metabolic rates, and/or have used data consisting of species-averaged masses and metabolic rates. Field metabolic rates are more ecologically relevant and are probably more directly subject to natural selection than basal rates. Individual rates might be more important than species-average rates in determining the outcome of ecological interactions, and hence selection. 2. We here provide the first comprehensive database of published field metabolic rates and body masses of individual birds and mammals, containing measurements of 1498 animals of 133 species in 28 orders. We used linear mixed-effects models to answer questions about the body mass scaling of metabolic rate and its taxonomic universality/heterogeneity that have become classic areas of controversy. Our statistical approach allows mean scaling exponents and taxonomic heterogeneity in scaling to be analysed in a unified way while simultaneously accounting for nonindependence in the data due to shared evolutionary history of related species. 3. The mean power-law scaling exponents of metabolic rate vs. body mass relationships were 0.71 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.625-0.795] for birds and 0.64 (95% CI 0.564-0.716) for mammals. However, these central tendencies obscured meaningful taxonomic heterogeneity in scaling exponents. The primary taxonomic level at which heterogeneity occurred was the order level. Substantial heterogeneity also occurred at the species level, a fact that cannot be revealed by species-averaged data sets used in prior work. Variability in scaling exponents at both order and species levels was comparable to or exceeded the differences 3/4-2/3 = 1/12 and 0.71-0.64. 4. Results are interpreted in the light of a variety of existing theories. In particular, results

  20. Crystal structure prediction of flexible molecules using parallel genetic algorithms with a standard force field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonah; Orendt, Anita M; Ferraro, Marta B; Facelli, Julio C

    2009-10-01

    This article describes the application of our distributed computing framework for crystal structure prediction (CSP) the modified genetic algorithms for crystal and cluster prediction (MGAC), to predict the crystal structure of flexible molecules using the general Amber force field (GAFF) and the CHARMM program. The MGAC distributed computing framework includes a series of tightly integrated computer programs for generating the molecule's force field, sampling crystal structures using a distributed parallel genetic algorithm and local energy minimization of the structures followed by the classifying, sorting, and archiving of the most relevant structures. Our results indicate that the method can consistently find the experimentally known crystal structures of flexible molecules, but the number of missing structures and poor ranking observed in some crystals show the need for further improvement of the potential. Copyright 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Metal accumulation in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Model predictions compared to field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltman, K.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.; Vijver, M.G.; Peijnenburg, W.J.G.M.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Koolhaas, J.E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.; van Vliet, P.C.J.; Jan, Hendriks A.

    2007-01-01

    The mechanistic bioaccumulation model OMEGA (Optimal Modeling for Ecotoxicological Applications) is used to estimate accumulation of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Our validation to field accumulation data shows that the model accurately predicts internal cadmium concentrations. In addition, our results show that internal metal concentrations in the earthworm are less than linearly (slope < 1) related to the total concentration in soil, while risk assessment procedures often assume the biota-soil accumulation factor (BSAF) to be constant. Although predicted internal concentrations of all metals are generally within a factor 5 compared to field data, incorporation of regulation in the model is necessary to improve predictability of the essential metals such as zinc and copper. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Predictive local receptive fields based respiratory motion tracking for motion-adaptive radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yubo Wang; Tatinati, Sivanagaraja; Liyu Huang; Kim Jeong Hong; Shafiq, Ghufran; Veluvolu, Kalyana C; Khong, Andy W H

    2017-07-01

    Extracranial robotic radiotherapy employs external markers and a correlation model to trace the tumor motion caused by the respiration. The real-time tracking of tumor motion however requires a prediction model to compensate the latencies induced by the software (image data acquisition and processing) and hardware (mechanical and kinematic) limitations of the treatment system. A new prediction algorithm based on local receptive fields extreme learning machines (pLRF-ELM) is proposed for respiratory motion prediction. All the existing respiratory motion prediction methods model the non-stationary respiratory motion traces directly to predict the future values. Unlike these existing methods, the pLRF-ELM performs prediction by modeling the higher-level features obtained by mapping the raw respiratory motion into the random feature space of ELM instead of directly modeling the raw respiratory motion. The developed method is evaluated using the dataset acquired from 31 patients for two horizons in-line with the latencies of treatment systems like CyberKnife. Results showed that pLRF-ELM is superior to that of existing prediction methods. Results further highlight that the abstracted higher-level features are suitable to approximate the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of respiratory motion for accurate prediction.

  3. Angle-dependent strong-field molecular ionization rates with tuned range-separated time-dependent density functional theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sissay, Adonay [Department of Chemistry, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 (United States); Abanador, Paul; Mauger, François; Gaarde, Mette; Schafer, Kenneth J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 (United States); Lopata, Kenneth, E-mail: klopata@lsu.edu [Department of Chemistry, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 (United States); Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 (United States)

    2016-09-07

    Strong-field ionization and the resulting electronic dynamics are important for a range of processes such as high harmonic generation, photodamage, charge resonance enhanced ionization, and ionization-triggered charge migration. Modeling ionization dynamics in molecular systems from first-principles can be challenging due to the large spatial extent of the wavefunction which stresses the accuracy of basis sets, and the intense fields which require non-perturbative time-dependent electronic structure methods. In this paper, we develop a time-dependent density functional theory approach which uses a Gaussian-type orbital (GTO) basis set to capture strong-field ionization rates and dynamics in atoms and small molecules. This involves propagating the electronic density matrix in time with a time-dependent laser potential and a spatial non-Hermitian complex absorbing potential which is projected onto an atom-centered basis set to remove ionized charge from the simulation. For the density functional theory (DFT) functional we use a tuned range-separated functional LC-PBE*, which has the correct asymptotic 1/r form of the potential and a reduced delocalization error compared to traditional DFT functionals. Ionization rates are computed for hydrogen, molecular nitrogen, and iodoacetylene under various field frequencies, intensities, and polarizations (angle-dependent ionization), and the results are shown to quantitatively agree with time-dependent Schrödinger equation and strong-field approximation calculations. This tuned DFT with GTO method opens the door to predictive all-electron time-dependent density functional theory simulations of ionization and ionization-triggered dynamics in molecular systems using tuned range-separated hybrid functionals.

  4. Angle-dependent strong-field molecular ionization rates with tuned range-separated time-dependent density functional theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sissay, Adonay; Abanador, Paul; Mauger, François; Gaarde, Mette; Schafer, Kenneth J.; Lopata, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    Strong-field ionization and the resulting electronic dynamics are important for a range of processes such as high harmonic generation, photodamage, charge resonance enhanced ionization, and ionization-triggered charge migration. Modeling ionization dynamics in molecular systems from first-principles can be challenging due to the large spatial extent of the wavefunction which stresses the accuracy of basis sets, and the intense fields which require non-perturbative time-dependent electronic structure methods. In this paper, we develop a time-dependent density functional theory approach which uses a Gaussian-type orbital (GTO) basis set to capture strong-field ionization rates and dynamics in atoms and small molecules. This involves propagating the electronic density matrix in time with a time-dependent laser potential and a spatial non-Hermitian complex absorbing potential which is projected onto an atom-centered basis set to remove ionized charge from the simulation. For the density functional theory (DFT) functional we use a tuned range-separated functional LC-PBE*, which has the correct asymptotic 1/r form of the potential and a reduced delocalization error compared to traditional DFT functionals. Ionization rates are computed for hydrogen, molecular nitrogen, and iodoacetylene under various field frequencies, intensities, and polarizations (angle-dependent ionization), and the results are shown to quantitatively agree with time-dependent Schrödinger equation and strong-field approximation calculations. This tuned DFT with GTO method opens the door to predictive all-electron time-dependent density functional theory simulations of ionization and ionization-triggered dynamics in molecular systems using tuned range-separated hybrid functionals.

  5. Durability predictions from rate of diffusion testing of normal portland cement, fly ash, and slag concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philipose, K.E.

    1991-09-01

    A waste repository for the belowground disposal of low-level radioactive waste, labelled IRUS (Intrusion Resistant Underground Structure), is planned at the Chalk River Laboratories. It relies greatly on the durability of concrete for a minimum of 500 years of service life. A research program based on laboratory testing to design a durable concrete and predict its useful engineered service life is in progress. The durability of concrete depends on its resistance to deterioration from both internal and external causes. Since the rate of degradation depends to a major extent on the rate of ingress of aggressive ions into concrete, laboratory testing is in progress to establish the diffusion rates of chlorides and sulphate ions. A total of 1000 concrete specimens and 500 paste specimens are being exposed at 22 degrees and 45 degrees C to twenty-five different combinations of corrosive agents, including CO 2 . Procedures to measure the ionic penetration profile and to determine the factors controlling diffusion of ions in the various concretes have been developed. The paper presents the initial results from the research program and the longevity predictions to qualify concretes for the IRUS waste repository, based on 16 months of diffusion testing on laboratory specimens

  6. Decay heat and gamma dose-rate prediction capability in spent LWR fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neely, G.J.; Schmittroth, F.

    1982-08-01

    The ORIGEN2 code was established as a valid means to predict decay heat from LWR spent fuel assemblies for decay times up to 10,000 year. Calculational uncertainties ranged from 8.6% to a maximum of 16% at 2.5 years and 300 years cooling time, respectively. The calculational uncertainties at 2.5 years cooling time are supported by experiment. Major sources of uncertainty at the 2.5 year cooling time were identifed as irradiation history (5.7%) and nuclear data together with calculational methods (6.3%). The QAD shielding code was established as a valid means to predict interior and exterior gamma dose rates of spent LWR fuel assemblies. A calculational/measurement comparison was done on two assemblies with different irradiation histories and supports a 35% calculational uncertainty at the 1.8 and 3.0 year decay times studied. Uncertainties at longer times are expected to increase, but not significantly, due to an increased contribution from the actinides whose inventories are assigned a higher uncertainty. The uncertainty in decay heat rises to a maximum of 16% due to actinide uncertainties. A previous study was made of the neutron emission rate from a typical Turkey Point Unit 3, Region 4 spent fuel assembly at 5 years decay time. A conservative estimate of the neutron dose rate at the assembly surface was less than 0.5 rem/hr

  7. Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.

    2005-01-01

    Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

  8. Ads' click-through rates predicting based on gated recurrent unit neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiaohong; Guo, Zixuan; Dong, Wen; Jin, Lingzi

    2018-05-01

    In order to improve the effect of online advertising and to increase the revenue of advertising, the gated recurrent unit neural networks(GRU) model is used as the ads' click through rates(CTR) predicting. Combined with the characteristics of gated unit structure and the unique of time sequence in data, using BPTT algorithm to train the model. Furthermore, by optimizing the step length algorithm of the gated unit recurrent neural networks, making the model reach optimal point better and faster in less iterative rounds. The experiment results show that the model based on the gated recurrent unit neural networks and its optimization of step length algorithm has the better effect on the ads' CTR predicting, which helps advertisers, media and audience achieve a win-win and mutually beneficial situation in Three-Side Game.

  9. Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

  10. Resting Heart Rate Predicts Depression and Cognition Early after Ischemic Stroke: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessier, Arnaud; Sibon, Igor; Poli, Mathilde; Audiffren, Michel; Allard, Michèle; Pfeuty, Micha

    2017-10-01

    Early detection of poststroke depression (PSD) and cognitive impairment (PSCI) remains challenging. It is well documented that the function of autonomic nervous system is associated with depression and cognition. However, their relationship has never been investigated in the early poststroke phase. This pilot study aimed at determining whether resting heart rate (HR) parameters measured in early poststroke phase (1) are associated with early-phase measures of depression and cognition and (2) could be used as new tools for early objective prediction of PSD or PSCI, which could be applicable to patients unable to answer usual questionnaires. Fifty-four patients with first-ever ischemic stroke, without cardiac arrhythmia, were assessed for resting HR and heart rate variability (HRV) within the first week after stroke and for depression and cognition during the first week and at 3 months after stroke. Multiple regression analyses controlled for age, gender, and stroke severity revealed that higher HR, lower HRV, and higher sympathovagal balance (low-frequency/high-frequency ratio of HRV) were associated with higher severity of depressive symptoms within the first week after stroke. Furthermore, higher sympathovagal balance in early phase predicted higher severity of depressive symptoms at the 3-month follow-up, whereas higher HR and lower HRV in early phase predicted lower global cognitive functioning at the 3-month follow-up. Resting HR measurements obtained in early poststroke phase could serve as an objective tool, applicable to patients unable to complete questionnaires, to help in the early prediction of PSD and PSCI. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Rate of PSA rise predicts metastatic versus local recurrence after definitive radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartor, C.I.; Strawderman, M.H.; Lin, X.; Kish, K.E.; McLaughlin, P.W.; Lichter, A.S.; Sandler, H.S.

    1995-01-01

    Objective: A rising PSA following treatment for adenocarcinoma of the prostate indicates eventual clinical failure, but the rate of rise can be quite different from patient to patient, as can the pattern of clinical failure. We sought to determine whether the rate of PSA rise could differentiate future local vs. metastatic failure. Materials and Methods: PSA values from our series of 671 patients treated between 1987 and 1994 with 3-D conformal radiotherapy for localized adenocarcinoma were analyzed. Patients who had a pre-treatment PSA and >4 post-treatment PSA values available, had received no hormonal therapy, and had information detailing clinical outcome were used in this analysis. First site of failure was determined by abnormal DRE or biopsy, abnormal bone scan or radiographic evidence of metastasis as directed by clinical symptoms or follow-up clinical exam. Each patient's PSA pattern was defined by the function PSA(t)=C 1 e - a 1 (t) + C 2 e a 2 (t) where -a 1 relates to the rate of decline and a 2 to the rate of rise, if any. Univariate analysis was used to determine the correlation between initial PSA or rising PSA and clinical failure. Adjacent category logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the rate of rise and pattern of clinical failure. Results: 671 patients were reviewed; 401 patients met the requirements and 2667 PSA values were analyzed. We confirmed the finding of others that pre-treatment PSA is a prognostic indicator: patients presenting with PSA 3-20ng/ml had a relative risk of 9 (p=0.03) and PSA>20ng/ml had a RR of 26 (p=0.002) for clinical failure when compared to presenting PSA 2 >1.5/year predicted metastatic as opposed to local failure when compared to PSA rise with a 2 between 0.5-1.5/yr or 1.5 log(ng/ml)/year vs. 0.5-1.5 log(ng/ml)/yr or <0.5 log(ng/ml)/yr. Conclusions: The rate of rise of PSA following definitive radiotherapy can predict clinical failure patterns, with a rapidly rising PSA indicating metastatic as opposed to

  12. PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR FLOW RATE OF DEZ DAM BY THE PROBABILITY MATRIX METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hashem Kanani

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The data collected from the operation of existing storage reservoirs, could offer valuable information for the better allocation and management of fresh water rates for future use to mitigation droughts effect. In this paper the long-term Dez reservoir (IRAN water rate prediction is presented using probability matrix method. Data is analyzed to find the probability matrix of water rates in Dez reservoir based on the previous history of annual water entrance during the past and present years(40 years. The algorithm developed covers both, the overflow and non-overflow conditions in the reservoir. Result of this study shows that in non-overflow conditions the most exigency case is equal to 75%. This means that, if the reservoir is empty (the stored water is less than 100 MCM this year, it would be also empty by 75% next year. The stored water in the reservoir would be less than 300 MCM by 85% next year if the reservoir is empty this year. This percentage decreases to 70% next year if the water of reservoir is less than 300 MCM this year. The percentage also decreases to 5% next year if the reservoir is full this year. In overflow conditions the most exigency case is equal to 75% again. The reservoir volume would be less than 150 MCM by 90% next year, if it is empty this year. This percentage decreases to 70% if its water volume is less than 300 MCM and 55% if the water volume is less than 500 MCM this year. Result shows that too, if the probability matrix of water rates to a reservoir is multiplied by itself repeatedly; it converges to a constant probability matrix, which could be used to predict the long-term water rate of the reservoir. In other words, the probability matrix of series of water rates is changed to a steady probability matrix in the course of time, which could reflect the hydrological behavior of the watershed and could be easily used for the long-term prediction of water storage in the down stream reservoirs.

  13. Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Lucy A P

    2016-04-01

    Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

  14. The Role of Infertility Etiology in Success Rate of Intrauterine Insemination Cycles: An Evaluation of Predictive Factors for Pregnancy Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Rashidi, Mandana; Ghasemi, Afsaneh; Arabipoor, Arezoo; Daghighi, Sara; Pourasghari, Parisa; Zolfaghari, Zahra

    2013-01-01

    Background: The objective of this study was to identify the prognostic factors that influence the outcome of ovarian stimulation with intrauterine insemination (IUI) cycles in couples with different infertility etiology. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study was performed in data of 1348 IUI cycles with ovarian stimulation by clomiphene citrate (CC) and/or gonadotropins in 632 women with five different infertility etiology subgroups at Akbarabbadi Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Results: The pregnancy rate (PR)/ cycle was highest (19.9%) among couples with unexplained infertility and lowest (10.6%) in couples with multiple factors infertility. In cases of unexplained infertility, the best PRs were seen after CC plus gonadotropins stimulation (26.3%) and with inseminated motile sperm count>30×106 (21.9%), but the tendency didn’t reach statistical significant. In the ovarian factor group, the best PRs were observed in women aged between 30 and 34 years (20.8%), with 2-3 preovulatory follicles (37.8%) and infertility duration between 1and 3 years (20.8%), while only infertility duration (p=0.03) and number of preovulatory follicles (p=0.01) were statistically significant. Multiple logistic regression analysis determined that number of preovulatory follicles (p=0.02), duration of infertility (p=0.015), age (p=0.019), infertility etiology (p=0.05) and stimulation regimen (p=0.01) were significant independent factors in order to predict overall clinical PR. Conclusion: The etiology of infertility is important to achieve remarkable IUI success. It is worth mentioning that within different etiologies of infertility, the demographic and cycles characteristics of couples did not show the same effect. Favorable variables for treatment success are as follows: age infertility ≤5 years and a cause of infertility except of multiple factors. PMID:24520471

  15. The heart field effect: Synchronization of healer-subject heart rates in energy therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bair, Christine Caldwell

    2008-01-01

    Recent health research has focused on subtle energy and vibrational frequency as key components of health and healing. In particular, intentional direction of bioenergy is receiving increasing scientific attention. This study investigates the effect of the healer's electromagnetic (EM) heart field upon subjects during energy healing as measured by synchronization of heart rates and scores on a Subjective Units of Distress (SUD) scale and a Profile of Mood States (POMS) inventory. A nonequivalent pretest-posttest design was used based on heart rate comparisons between healer and subject and correlated with pre-and posttest SUD and POMS scores. Subjects included those who sat within the 3- to 4-foot "strong" range of the independent variable, the healer's heart field, while performing self-application of WHEE (the wholistic hybrid derived from EMDR [eye movement desensitization and reprocessing], and EFT [emotional freedom technique]), a meridian-based tapping technique (n=50); and those who performed the same process beyond the 15- to 18-foot range of the healer's EM heart field (n=41). The dependent variables were heart rate, SUD, and POMS inventory. All subjects completed these measures within 1 hour. Study results showed statistically significant heart-rate synchronization with the intervention population. In addition, SUD and POMS scores demonstrated considerably more improvement than in the control population, indicating additional benefit beyond the meridian-based therapies, such as WHEE, alone. Additional findings and future research recommendations are presented in this article.

  16. Introducing a decomposition rate modifier in the Rothamsted Carbon Model to predict soil organic carbon stocks in saline soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setia, Raj; Smith, Pete; Marschner, Petra; Baldock, Jeff; Chittleborough, David; Smith, Jo

    2011-08-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) models such as the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) have been used to estimate SOC dynamics in soils over different time scales but, until recently, their ability to accurately predict SOC stocks/carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from salt-affected soils has not been assessed. Given the large extent of salt-affected soils (19% of the 20.8 billion ha of arable land on Earth), this may lead to miss-estimation of CO(2) release. Using soils from two salt-affected regions (one in Punjab, India and one in South Australia), an incubation study was carried out measuring CO(2) release over 120 days. The soils varied both in salinity (measured as electrical conductivity (EC) and calculated as osmotic potential using EC and water content) and sodicity (measured as sodium adsorption ratio, SAR). For soils from both regions, the osmotic potential had a significant positive relationship with CO(2)-C release, but no significant relationship was found between SAR and CO(2)-C release. The monthly cumulative CO(2)-C was simulated using RothC. RothC was modified to take into account reductions in plant inputs due to salinity. A subset of non-salt-affected soils was used to derive an equation for a "lab-effect" modifier to account for changes in decomposition under lab conditions and this modifier was significantly related with pH. Using a subset of salt-affected soils, a decomposition rate modifier (as a function of osmotic potential) was developed to match measured and modelled CO(2)-C release after correcting for the lab effect. Using this decomposition rate modifier, we found an agreement (R(2) = 0.92) between modelled and independently measured data for a set of soils from the incubation experiment. RothC, modified by including reduced plant inputs due to salinity and the salinity decomposition rate modifier, was used to predict SOC stocks of soils in a field in South Australia. The predictions clearly showed that SOC stocks are reduced in saline soils

  17. Semantic organizational strategy predicts verbal memory and remission rate of geriatric depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Sarah Shizuko; Gunning, Faith M; Kanellopoulos, Dora; Murphy, Christopher F; Klimstra, Sibel A; Kelly, Robert E; Alexopoulos, George S

    2012-05-01

    This study tests the hypothesis that the use of semantic organizational strategy during the free-recall phase of a verbal memory task predicts remission of geriatric depression. Sixty-five older patients with major depression participated in a 12-week escitalopram treatment trial. Neuropsychological performance was assessed at baseline after a 2-week drug washout period. The Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised was used to assess verbal learning and memory. Remission was defined as a Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score of ≤ 7 for 2 consecutive weeks and no longer meeting the DSM-IV-TR criteria for major depression. The association between the number of clusters used at the final learning trial (trial 3) and remission was examined using Cox's proportional hazards survival analysis. The relationship between the number of clusters utilized in the final learning trial and the number of words recalled after a 25-min delay was examined in a regression with age and education as covariates. Higher number of clusters utilized predicted remission rates (hazard ratio, 1.26 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.54); χ(2)  = 4.23, df = 3, p = 0.04). There was a positive relationship between the total number of clusters used by the end of the third learning trial and the total number of words recalled at the delayed recall trial (F(3,58) = 7.93; p < 0.001). Effective semantic strategy use at baseline on a verbal list learning task by older depressed patients was associated with higher rates of remission with antidepressant treatment. This result provides support for previous findings indicating that measures of executive functioning at baseline are useful in predicting antidepressant response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Statistical properties of Joule heating rate, electric field and conductances at high latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Aikio

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistical properties of Joule heating rate, electric field and conductances in the high latitude ionosphere are studied by a unique one-month measurement made by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar in Tromsø (66.6 cgmlat from 6 March to 6 April 2006. The data are from the same season (close to vernal equinox and from similar sunspot conditions (about 1.5 years before the sunspot minimum providing an excellent set of data to study the MLT and Kp dependence of parameters with high temporal and spatial resolution.

    All the parameters show a clear MLT variation, which is different for low and high Kp conditions. Our results indicate that the response of morning sector conductances and conductance ratios to increased magnetic activity is stronger than that of the evening sector. The co-location of Pedersen conductance maximum and electric field maximum in the morning sector produces the largest Joule heating rates 03–05 MLT for Kp≥3. In the evening sector, a smaller maximum occurs at 18 MLT. Minimum Joule heating rates in the nightside are statistically observed at 23 MLT, which is the location of the electric Harang discontinuity.

    An important outcome of the paper are the fitted functions for the Joule heating rate as a function of electric field magnitude, separately for four MLT sectors and two activity levels (Kp<3 and Kp≥3. In addition to the squared electric field, the fit includes a linear term to study the possible anticorrelation or correlation between electric field and conductance. In the midday sector, positive correlation is found as well as in the morning sector for the high activity case. In the midnight and evening sectors, anticorrelation between electric field and conductance is obtained, i.e. high electric fields are associated with low conductances. This is expected to occur in the return current regions adjacent to

  19. Statistical properties of Joule heating rate, electric field and conductances at high latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Aikio

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistical properties of Joule heating rate, electric field and conductances in the high latitude ionosphere are studied by a unique one-month measurement made by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar in Tromsø (66.6 cgmlat from 6 March to 6 April 2006. The data are from the same season (close to vernal equinox and from similar sunspot conditions (about 1.5 years before the sunspot minimum providing an excellent set of data to study the MLT and Kp dependence of parameters with high temporal and spatial resolution. All the parameters show a clear MLT variation, which is different for low and high Kp conditions. Our results indicate that the response of morning sector conductances and conductance ratios to increased magnetic activity is stronger than that of the evening sector. The co-location of Pedersen conductance maximum and electric field maximum in the morning sector produces the largest Joule heating rates 03–05 MLT for Kp≥3. In the evening sector, a smaller maximum occurs at 18 MLT. Minimum Joule heating rates in the nightside are statistically observed at 23 MLT, which is the location of the electric Harang discontinuity. An important outcome of the paper are the fitted functions for the Joule heating rate as a function of electric field magnitude, separately for four MLT sectors and two activity levels (Kp<3 and Kp≥3. In addition to the squared electric field, the fit includes a linear term to study the possible anticorrelation or correlation between electric field and conductance. In the midday sector, positive correlation is found as well as in the morning sector for the high activity case. In the midnight and evening sectors, anticorrelation between electric field and conductance is obtained, i.e. high electric fields are associated with low conductances. This is expected to occur in the return current regions adjacent to auroral arcs as a result of ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling, as discussed by Aikio et al. (2004 In

  20. Critical fields and growth rates of the Tayler instability as probed by a columnar gallium experiment

    OpenAIRE

    Ruediger, Guenther; Gellert, Marcus; Schultz, Manfred; Strassmeier, Klaus G.; Stefani, Frank; Gundrum, Thomas; Seilmayer, Martin; Gerbeth, Gunter

    2012-01-01

    Many astrophysical phenomena (such as the slow rotation of neutron stars or the rigid rotation of the solar core) can be explained by the action of the Tayler instability of toroidal magnetic fields in the radiative zones of stars. In order to place the theory of this instability on a safe fundament it has been realized in a laboratory experiment measuring the critical field strength, the growth rates as well as the shape of the supercritical modes. A strong electrical current flows through a...

  1. A finite element modeling method for predicting long term corrosion rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, J.W.; Chan, S.

    1984-01-01

    For the analyses of galvanic corrosion, pitting and crevice corrosion, which have been identified as possible corrosion processes for nuclear waste isolation, a finite element method has been developed for the prediction of corrosion rates. The method uses a finite element mesh to model the corrosive environment and the polarization curves of metals are assigned as the boundary conditions to calculate the corrosion cell current distribution. A subroutine is used to calculate the chemical change with time in the crevice or the pit environments. In this paper, the finite element method is described along with experimental confirmation

  2. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR) Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papas, Klearchos K; Bellin, Melena D; Sutherland, David E R; Suszynski, Thomas M; Kitzmann, Jennifer P; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S; Gruessner, Angelika C; Mueller, Kathryn R; Beilman, Gregory J; Balamurugan, Appakalai N; Loganathan, Gopalakrishnan; Colton, Clark K; Koulmanda, Maria; Weir, Gordon C; Wilhelm, Josh J; Qian, Dajun; Niland, Joyce C; Hering, Bernhard J

    2015-01-01

    Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR) in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT) insulin independence (II). IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity. Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI), OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA), islet equivalent (IE) and OCR (viable IE) normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose), and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI) were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35). Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001). These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose). FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49) and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58) did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72). Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

  3. Islet Oxygen Consumption Rate (OCR Dose Predicts Insulin Independence in Clinical Islet Autotransplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klearchos K Papas

    Full Text Available Reliable in vitro islet quality assessment assays that can be performed routinely, prospectively, and are able to predict clinical transplant outcomes are needed. In this paper we present data on the utility of an assay based on cellular oxygen consumption rate (OCR in predicting clinical islet autotransplant (IAT insulin independence (II. IAT is an attractive model for evaluating characterization assays regarding their utility in predicting II due to an absence of confounding factors such as immune rejection and immunosuppressant toxicity.Membrane integrity staining (FDA/PI, OCR normalized to DNA (OCR/DNA, islet equivalent (IE and OCR (viable IE normalized to recipient body weight (IE dose and OCR dose, and OCR/DNA normalized to islet size index (ISI were used to characterize autoislet preparations (n = 35. Correlation between pre-IAT islet product characteristics and II was determined using receiver operating characteristic analysis.Preparations that resulted in II had significantly higher OCR dose and IE dose (p<0.001. These islet characterization methods were highly correlated with II at 6-12 months post-IAT (area-under-the-curve (AUC = 0.94 for IE dose and 0.96 for OCR dose. FDA/PI (AUC = 0.49 and OCR/DNA (AUC = 0.58 did not correlate with II. OCR/DNA/ISI may have some utility in predicting outcome (AUC = 0.72.Commonly used assays to determine whether a clinical islet preparation is of high quality prior to transplantation are greatly lacking in sensitivity and specificity. While IE dose is highly predictive, it does not take into account islet cell quality. OCR dose, which takes into consideration both islet cell quality and quantity, may enable a more accurate and prospective evaluation of clinical islet preparations.

  4. Financial Distress Prediction Using Discrete-time Hazard Model and Rating Transition Matrix Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Bi-Huei; Chang, Chih-Huei

    2009-08-01

    Previous studies used constant cut-off indicator to distinguish distressed firms from non-distressed ones in the one-stage prediction models. However, distressed cut-off indicator must shift according to economic prosperity, rather than remains fixed all the time. This study focuses on Taiwanese listed firms and develops financial distress prediction models based upon the two-stage method. First, this study employs the firm-specific financial ratio and market factors to measure the probability of financial distress based on the discrete-time hazard models. Second, this paper further focuses on macroeconomic factors and applies rating transition matrix approach to determine the distressed cut-off indicator. The prediction models are developed by using the training sample from 1987 to 2004, and their levels of accuracy are compared with the test sample from 2005 to 2007. As for the one-stage prediction model, the model in incorporation with macroeconomic factors does not perform better than that without macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the accuracy is not improved for one-stage models which pool the firm-specific and macroeconomic factors together. In regards to the two stage models, the negative credit cycle index implies the worse economic status during the test period, so the distressed cut-off point is adjusted to increase based on such negative credit cycle index. After the two-stage models employ such adjusted cut-off point to discriminate the distressed firms from non-distressed ones, their error of misclassification becomes lower than that of one-stage ones. The two-stage models presented in this paper have incremental usefulness in predicting financial distress.

  5. The prediction of output factors for spread-out proton Bragg peak fields in clinical practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kooy, Hanne M; Rosenthal, Stanley J; Engelsman, Martijn; Mazal, Alejandro; Slopsema, Roelf L; Paganetti, Harald; Flanz, Jacob B

    2005-01-01

    The reliable prediction of output factors for spread-out proton Bragg peak (SOBP) fields in clinical practice remained unrealized due to a lack of a consistent theoretical framework and the great number of variables introduced by the mechanical devices necessary for the production of such fields. These limitations necessitated an almost exclusive reliance on manual calibration for individual fields and empirical, ad hoc, models. We recently reported on a theoretical framework for the prediction of output factors for such fields. In this work, we describe the implementation of this framework in our clinical practice. In our practice, we use a treatment delivery nozzle that uses a limited, and constant, set of mechanical devices to produce SOBP fields over the full extent of clinical penetration depths, or ranges, and modulation widths. This use of a limited set of mechanical devices allows us to unfold the physical effects that affect the output factor. We describe these effects and their incorporation into the theoretical framework. We describe the calibration and protocol for SOBP fields, the effects of apertures and range-compensators and the use of output factors in the treatment planning process

  6. Model predictions and analysis of enhanced biological effectiveness at low dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watt, D.E.; Sykes, C.E.; Younis, A.-R.S.

    1988-01-01

    A severe challenge to all models purporting to describe the biological effects of ionizing radiation has arisen with the discovery of two phenomena: the anomalous trend with dose rate of the frequency of neoplastic transformation of mammalian cells and the apparent excessive damaging power of electron-capture radionuclides when incorporated into cell nuclei. A new model is proposed which predicts and enables interpretation of these phenomena. Radiation effectiveness is found to be expressible absolutely in terms of the geometrical cross-sectional area of the radiosensitive sites. The duration of the irradiation, the mean free path for ionization, the influence of particles in the slowing-down spectrum perrtaining in the medium and two collective time factors determining the mean repair rate and the mean lifetime of unidentified reactive chemical species [pt

  7. Planning of gamma-fields: forming and checking dose-rate homogeneity in irradiation facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenger, V.; Foldiak, G.; Horvath, Zs.; Naszodi, L.

    1975-01-01

    The optimal geometry of the sources of an 80000-Ci 60 Co irradiation facility was calculated. The array of the sources is suitable for fundamental research and pilot-plant radiosterilization simultaneously. A method was developed to compensate the inhomogeneity of the dose-rate field: it is no worse than that of the continuous large-scale facilities. In five years the activity of the sources decreased by about half; therefore, this recharge became inevitable. Experience proved that with the new source geometry optimalized by calculations a dose-rate of 1.2 +-10% became available with the packages. (author)

  8. A petroleum discovery-rate forecast revisited-The problem of field growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, L.J.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    A forecast of the future rates of discovery of crude oil and natural gas for the 123,027-km2 Miocene/Pliocene trend in the Gulf of Mexico was made in 1980. This forecast was evaluated in 1988 by comparing two sets of data: (1) the actual versus the forecasted number of fields discovered, and (2) the actual versus the forecasted volumes of crude oil and natural gas discovered with the drilling of 1,820 wildcat wells along the trend between January 1, 1977, and December 31, 1985. The forecast specified that this level of drilling would result in the discovery of 217 fields containing 1.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent; however, 238 fields containing 3.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent were actually discovered. This underestimation is attributed to biases introduced by field growth and, to a lesser degree, the artificially low, pre-1970's price of natural gas that prevented many smaller gas fields from being brought into production at the time of their discovery; most of these fields contained less than 50 billion cubic feet of producible natural gas. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

  9. Predictive Finite Rate Model for Oxygen-Carbon Interactions at High Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poovathingal, Savio

    An oxidation model for carbon surfaces is developed to predict ablation rates for carbon heat shields used in hypersonic vehicles. Unlike existing empirical models, the approach used here was to probe gas-surface interactions individually and then based on an understanding of the relevant fundamental processes, build a predictive model that would be accurate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, and even microstructures. Initially, molecular dynamics was used to understand the oxidation processes on the surface. The molecular dynamics simulations were compared to molecular beam experiments and good qualitative agreement was observed. The simulations reproduced cylindrical pitting observed in the experiments where oxidation was rapid and primarily occurred around a defect. However, the studies were limited to small systems at low temperatures and could simulate time scales only of the order of nanoseconds. Molecular beam experiments at high surface temperature indicated that a majority of surface reaction products were produced through thermal mechanisms. Since the reactions were thermal, they occurred over long time scales which were computationally prohibitive for molecular dynamics to simulate. The experiments provided detailed dynamical data on the scattering of O, O2, CO, and CO2 and it was found that the data from molecular beam experiments could be used directly to build a model. The data was initially used to deduce surface reaction probabilities at 800 K. The reaction probabilities were then incorporated into the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Simulations were performed where the microstructure was resolved and dissociated oxygen convected and diffused towards it. For a gas-surface temperature of 800 K, it was found that despite CO being the dominant surface reaction product, a gas-phase reaction forms significant CO2 within the microstructure region. It was also found that surface area did not play any role in concentration of

  10. PREDICTION OF SOLAR FLARES USING UNIQUE SIGNATURES OF MAGNETIC FIELD IMAGES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raboonik, Abbas; Safari, Hossein; Alipour, Nasibe [Department of Physics, University of Zanjan, P.O. Box 45195-313, Zanjan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Wheatland, Michael S., E-mail: raboonik@alumni.znu.ac.ir, E-mail: safari@znu.ac.ir [Sydney Institute for Astronomy, School of Physics, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia)

    2017-01-01

    Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M- and X-class) flares is presented, which uses machine learning methods applied to the Zernike moments (ZM) of magnetograms observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory for a period of six years from 2010 June 2 to 2016 August 1. Magnetic field images consisting of the radial component of the magnetic field are converted to finite sets of ZMs and fed to the support vector machine classifier. ZMs have the capability to elicit unique features from any 2D image, which may allow more accurate classification. The results indicate whether an arbitrary active region has the potential to produce at least one large flare. We show that the majority of large flares can be predicted within 48 hr before their occurrence, with only 10 false negatives out of 385 flaring active region magnetograms and 21 false positives out of 179 non-flaring active region magnetograms. Our method may provide a useful tool for the prediction of solar flares, which can be employed alongside other forecasting methods.

  11. An Ensemble Learning for Predicting Breakdown Field Strength of Polyimide Nanocomposite Films

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai Guo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the method of Stochastic Gradient Boosting, ten SMO-SVR are constructed into a strong prediction model (SGBS model that is efficient in predicting the breakdown field strength. Adopting the method of in situ polymerization, thirty-two samples of nanocomposite films with different percentage compositions, components, and thicknesses are prepared. Then, the breakdown field strength is tested by using voltage test equipment. From the test results, the correlation coefficient (CC, the mean absolute error (MAE, the root mean squared error (RMSE, the relative absolute error (RAE, and the root relative squared error (RRSE are 0.9664, 14.2598, 19.684, 22.26%, and 25.01% with SGBS model. The result indicates that the predicted values fit well with the measured ones. Comparisons between models such as linear regression, BP, GRNN, SVR, and SMO-SVR have also been made under the same conditions. They show that CC of the SGBS model is higher than those of other models. Nevertheless, the MAE, RMSE, RAE, and RRSE of the SGBS model are lower than those of other models. This demonstrates that the SGBS model is better than other models in predicting the breakdown field strength of polyimide nanocomposite films.

  12. Hidden Fermi liquid, scattering rate saturation, and Nernst effect: a dynamical mean-field theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenhu; Haule, Kristjan; Kotliar, Gabriel

    2013-07-19

    We investigate the transport properties of a correlated metal within dynamical mean-field theory. Canonical Fermi liquid behavior emerges only below a very low temperature scale T(FL). Surprisingly the quasiparticle scattering rate follows a quadratic temperature dependence up to much higher temperatures and crosses over to saturated behavior around a temperature scale T(sat). We identify these quasiparticles as constituents of the hidden Fermi liquid. The non-Fermi-liquid transport above T(FL), in particular the linear-in-T resistivity, is shown to be a result of a strongly temperature dependent band dispersion. We derive simple expressions for the resistivity, Hall angle, thermoelectric power and Nernst coefficient in terms of a temperature dependent renormalized band structure and the quasiparticle scattering rate. We discuss possible tests of the dynamical mean-field theory picture of transport using ac measurements.

  13. Comparing erosion rates in burnt forests and agricultural fields for a mountain catchment in NW Iberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Marisa Santos, Juliana; Bernard-Jannin, Léonard; Keizer, Jan Jacob

    2013-04-01

    A large part of northwestern Iberia is nowadays covered by commercial forest plantations of eucalypts and maritime pines, which have partly replaced traditional agricultural land-uses. The humid Mediterranean climate, with mild wet winters and warm dry summers, creates favorable conditions for the occurrence of frequent and recurrent forest fires. Erosion rates in recently burnt areas have been the subject of numerous studies; however, there is still a lack of information on their relevance when compared with agricultural erosion rates, impairing a comprehensive assessment of the role of forests for soil protection. This study focuses on Macieira de Alcoba, head-water catchment in the Caramulo Mountain Range, north-central Portugal, with a mixture of agricultural fields (mostly a rotation between winter pastures and summer cereals) on the lower slopes and forest plantations (mostly eucalypts) on the upper slopes. Agricultural erosion in this catchment has been monitored since 2010; a forest fire in 2011 presented an opportunity to compare post-fire and agricultural erosion rates at nearby sites with comparable soil and climatic conditions. Erosion rates were monitored between 2010 and 2013 by repeated surveys of visible erosion features and, in particular, by mapping and measuring rills and gullies after important rainfall events. During the 2011/2012 hydrological year, erosion rates in the burnt forest were two orders of magnitude above those in agricultural fields, amounting to 17.6 and. 0.1 Mg ha-1, respectively. Rills were widespread in the burnt area, while in the agricultural area they were limited to a small number of fields with higher slope; these particular fields experienced an erosion rate of 2.3 Mg ha-1, still one order of magnitude lower than at the burnt forest site. The timing of the erosion features was also quite distinct for the burnt area and the agricultural fields. During the first nine months after the fire, rill formation was not observed in

  14. Analysis of field usage failure rate data for plastic encapsulated solid state devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    Survey and questionnaire techniques were used to gather data from users and manufacturers on the failure rates in the field of plastic encapsulated semiconductors. It was found that such solid state devices are being successfully used by commercial companies which impose certain screening and qualification procedures. The reliability of these semiconductors is now adequate to support their consideration in NASA systems, particularly in low cost systems. The cost of performing necessary screening for NASA applications was assessed.

  15. Systematic literature review shows that appetite rating does not predict energy intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Guy M; Owen, Lauren J; Till, Sophie; Cheng, Yanying; Grant, Vicky A; Harden, Charlotte J; Corfe, Bernard M

    2017-11-02

    Ratings of appetite are commonly used to assess appetite modification following an intervention. Subjectively rated appetite is a widely employed proxy measure for energy intake (EI), measurement of which requires greater time and resources. However, the validity of appetite as a reliable predictor of EI has not yet been reviewed systematically. This literature search identified studies that quantified both appetite ratings and EI. Outcomes were predefined as: (1) agreement between self-reported appetite scores and EI; (2) no agreement between self-reported appetitescores and EI. The presence of direct statistical comparison between the endpoints, intervention type and study population were also recorded. 462 papers were included in this review. Appetite scores failed to correspond with EI in 51.3% of the total studies. Only 6% of all studies evaluated here reported a direct statistical comparison between appetite scores and EI. χ 2 analysis demonstrated that any relationship between EI and appetite was independent of study type stratification by age, gender or sample size. The very substantive corpus reviewed allows us to conclude that self-reported appetite ratings of appetite do not reliably predict EI. Caution should be exercised when drawing conclusions based from self-reported appetite scores in relation to prospective EI.

  16. Field calibration and modification of scs design equation for predicting length of border under local conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhary, M.R.; Mustafa, U.S.

    2009-01-01

    Field tests were conducted to calibrate the existing SCS design equation in determining field border length using field data of different field lengths during 2nd and 3rd irrigations under local conditions. A single ring infiltrometer was used to estimate the water movement into and through the irrigated soil profile and in estimating the coefficients of Kostiakov infiltration function. Measurements of the unit discharge and time of advance were carried out during different irrigations on wheat irrigated fields having clay loam soil. The collected field data were used to calibrate the existing SCS design equation developed by USDA for testing its validity under local field conditions. SCS equation was modified further to improve its applicability. Results from the study revealed that the Kostiakov model over predicted the coefficients, which in turn overestimated the water advance length for boarder in the selected field using existing SCS design equation. However, the calibrated SCS design equation after parametric modification produced more satisfactory results encouraging the scientists to make its use at larger scale. (author)

  17. Predicting Click-Through Rates of New Advertisements Based on the Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhipeng Fang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most classical search engines choose and rank advertisements (ads based on their click-through rates (CTRs. To predict an ad’s CTR, historical click information is frequently concerned. To accurately predict the CTR of the new ads is challenging and critical for real world applications, since we do not have plentiful historical data about these ads. Adopting Bayesian network (BN as the effective framework for representing and inferring dependencies and uncertainties among variables, in this paper, we establish a BN-based model to predict the CTRs of new ads. First, we built a Bayesian network of the keywords that are used to describe the ads in a certain domain, called keyword BN and abbreviated as KBN. Second, we proposed an algorithm for approximate inferences of the KBN to find similar keywords with those that describe the new ads. Finally based on the similar keywords, we obtain the similar ads and then calculate the CTR of the new ad by using the CTRs of the ads that are similar with the new ad. Experimental results show the efficiency and accuracy of our method.

  18. Predicting NonInertial Effects with Algebraic Stress Models which Account for Dissipation Rate Anisotropies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongen, T.; Machiels, L.; Gatski, T. B.

    1997-01-01

    Three types of turbulence models which account for rotational effects in noninertial frames of reference are evaluated for the case of incompressible, fully developed rotating turbulent channel flow. The different types of models are a Coriolis-modified eddy-viscosity model, a realizable algebraic stress model, and an algebraic stress model which accounts for dissipation rate anisotropies. A direct numerical simulation of a rotating channel flow is used for the turbulent model validation. This simulation differs from previous studies in that significantly higher rotation numbers are investigated. Flows at these higher rotation numbers are characterized by a relaminarization on the cyclonic or suction side of the channel, and a linear velocity profile on the anticyclonic or pressure side of the channel. The predictive performance of the three types of models are examined in detail, and formulation deficiencies are identified which cause poor predictive performance for some of the models. Criteria are identified which allow for accurate prediction of such flows by algebraic stress models and their corresponding Reynolds stress formulations.

  19. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  20. Modeling and Predicting the EUR/USD Exchange Rate: The Role of Nonlinear Adjustments to Purchasing Power Parity

    OpenAIRE

    Jesús Crespo Cuaresma; Anna Orthofer

    2010-01-01

    Reliable medium-term forecasts are essential for forward-looking monetary policy decisionmaking. Traditionally, predictions of the exchange rate tend to be linked to the equilibrium concept implied by the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory. In particular, the traditional benchmark for exchange rate models is based on a linear adjustment of the exchange rate to the level implied by PPP. In the presence of aggregation effects, transaction costs or uncertainty, however, economic theory predict...

  1. Specialties differ in which aspects of doctor communication predict overall physician ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, Denise D; Elliott, Marc N; Farley, Donna O; Burkhart, Q; Skootsky, Samuel A; Hays, Ron D

    2014-03-01

    Effective doctor communication is critical to positive doctor-patient relationships and predicts better health outcomes. Doctor communication is the strongest predictor of patient ratings of doctors, but the most important aspects of communication may vary by specialty. To determine the importance of five aspects of doctor communication to overall physician ratings by specialty. For each of 28 specialties, we calculated partial correlations of five communication items with a 0-10 overall physician rating, controlling for patient demographics. Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Clinician and Group (CG-CAHPS®) 12-month Survey data collected 2005-2009 from 58,251 adults at a 534-physician medical group. CG-CAHPS includes a 0 ("Worst physician possible") to 10 ("Best physician possible") overall physician rating. Five doctor communication items assess how often the physician: explains things; listens carefully; gives easy-to-understand instructions; shows respect; and spends enough time. Physician showing respect was the most important aspect of communication for 23/28 specialties, with a mean partial correlation (0.27, ranging from 0.07 to 0.44 across specialties) that accounted for more than four times as much variance in the overall physician rating as any other communication item. Three of five communication items varied significantly across specialties in their associations with the overall rating (p importance of other aspects of communication varied significantly by specialty. Quality improvement efforts by all specialties should emphasize physicians showing respect to patients, and each specialty should also target other aspects of communication that matter most to their patients. The results have implications for improving provider quality improvement and incentive programs and the reporting of CAHPS data to patients. Specialists make important contributions to coordinated patient care, and thus customized approaches to measurement

  2. Psychomotor testing predicts rate of skill acquisition for proficiency-based laparoscopic skills training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanidis, Dimitrios; Korndorffer, James R; Black, F William; Dunne, J Bruce; Sierra, Rafael; Touchard, Cheri L; Rice, David A; Markert, Ronald J; Kastl, Peter R; Scott, Daniel J

    2006-08-01

    Laparoscopic simulator training translates into improved operative performance. Proficiency-based curricula maximize efficiency by tailoring training to meet the needs of each individual; however, because rates of skill acquisition vary widely, such curricula may be difficult to implement. We hypothesized that psychomotor testing would predict baseline performance and training duration in a proficiency-based laparoscopic simulator curriculum. Residents (R1, n = 20) were enrolled in an IRB-approved prospective study at the beginning of the academic year. All completed the following: a background information survey, a battery of 12 innate ability measures (5 motor, and 7 visual-spatial), and baseline testing on 3 validated simulators (5 videotrainer [VT] tasks, 12 virtual reality [minimally invasive surgical trainer-virtual reality, MIST-VR] tasks, and 2 laparoscopic camera navigation [LCN] tasks). Participants trained to proficiency, and training duration and number of repetitions were recorded. Baseline test scores were correlated to skill acquisition rate. Cutoff scores for each predictive test were calculated based on a receiver operator curve, and their sensitivity and specificity were determined in identifying slow learners. Only the Cards Rotation test correlated with baseline simulator ability on VT and LCN. Curriculum implementation required 347 man-hours (6-person team) and 795,000 dollars of capital equipment. With an attendance rate of 75%, 19 of 20 residents (95%) completed the curriculum by the end of the academic year. To complete training, a median of 12 hours (range, 5.5-21), and 325 repetitions (range, 171-782) were required. Simulator score improvement was 50%. Training duration and repetitions correlated with prior video game and billiard exposure, grooved pegboard, finger tap, map planning, Rey Figure Immediate Recall score, and baseline performance on VT and LCN. The map planning cutoff score proved most specific in identifying slow learners

  3. The Role of Occupational Voice Demand and Patient-Rated Impairment in Predicting Voice Therapy Adherence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebersole, Barbara; Soni, Resha S; Moran, Kathleen; Lango, Miriam; Devarajan, Karthik; Jamal, Nausheen

    2018-05-01

    Examine the relationship among the severity of patient-perceived voice impairment, perceptual dysphonia severity, occupational voice demand, and voice therapy adherence. Identify clinical predictors of increased risk for therapy nonadherence. A retrospective cohort study of patients presenting with a chief complaint of persistent dysphonia at an interdisciplinary voice center was done. The Voice Handicap Index-10 (VHI-10) and the Voice-Related Quality of Life (V-RQOL) survey scores, clinician rating of dysphonia severity using the Grade score from the Grade, Roughness Breathiness, Asthenia, and Strain scale, occupational voice demand, and patient demographics were tested for associations with therapy adherence, defined as completion of the treatment plan. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was performed to establish thresholds for nonadherence risk. Of 166 patients evaluated, 111 were recommended for voice therapy. The therapy nonadherence rate was 56%. Occupational voice demand category, VHI-10, and V-RQOL scores were the only factors significantly correlated with therapy adherence (P demand are significantly more likely to be nonadherent with therapy than those with high occupational voice demand (P 40 is a significant cutoff point for predicting therapy nonadherence (P demand and patient perception of impairment are significantly and independently correlated with therapy adherence. A VHI-10 score of ≤9 or a V-RQOL score of >40 is a significant cutoff point for predicting nonadherence risk. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Pretraining Cortical Thickness Predicts Subsequent Perceptual Learning Rate in a Visual Search Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Sebastian M; Reavis, Eric A; Greenlee, Mark W; Tse, Peter U

    2016-03-01

    We report that preexisting individual differences in the cortical thickness of brain areas involved in a perceptual learning task predict the subsequent perceptual learning rate. Participants trained in a motion-discrimination task involving visual search for a "V"-shaped target motion trajectory among inverted "V"-shaped distractor trajectories. Motion-sensitive area MT+ (V5) was functionally identified as critical to the task: after 3 weeks of training, activity increased in MT+ during task performance, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. We computed the cortical thickness of MT+ from anatomical magnetic resonance imaging volumes collected before training started, and found that it significantly predicted subsequent perceptual learning rates in the visual search task. Participants with thicker neocortex in MT+ before training learned faster than those with thinner neocortex in that area. A similar association between cortical thickness and training success was also found in posterior parietal cortex (PPC). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Reward rate optimization in two-alternative decision making: empirical tests of theoretical predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simen, Patrick; Contreras, David; Buck, Cara; Hu, Peter; Holmes, Philip; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2009-12-01

    The drift-diffusion model (DDM) implements an optimal decision procedure for stationary, 2-alternative forced-choice tasks. The height of a decision threshold applied to accumulating information on each trial determines a speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) for the DDM, thereby accounting for a ubiquitous feature of human performance in speeded response tasks. However, little is known about how participants settle on particular tradeoffs. One possibility is that they select SATs that maximize a subjective rate of reward earned for performance. For the DDM, there exist unique, reward-rate-maximizing values for its threshold and starting point parameters in free-response tasks that reward correct responses (R. Bogacz, E. Brown, J. Moehlis, P. Holmes, & J. D. Cohen, 2006). These optimal values vary as a function of response-stimulus interval, prior stimulus probability, and relative reward magnitude for correct responses. We tested the resulting quantitative predictions regarding response time, accuracy, and response bias under these task manipulations and found that grouped data conformed well to the predictions of an optimally parameterized DDM.

  6. Rate-independent dissipation in phase-field modelling of displacive transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tůma, K.; Stupkiewicz, S.; Petryk, H.

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, rate-independent dissipation is introduced into the phase-field framework for modelling of displacive transformations, such as martensitic phase transformation and twinning. The finite-strain phase-field model developed recently by the present authors is here extended beyond the limitations of purely viscous dissipation. The variational formulation, in which the evolution problem is formulated as a constrained minimization problem for a global rate-potential, is enhanced by including a mixed-type dissipation potential that combines viscous and rate-independent contributions. Effective computational treatment of the resulting incremental problem of non-smooth optimization is developed by employing the augmented Lagrangian method. It is demonstrated that a single Lagrange multiplier field suffices to handle the dissipation potential vertex and simultaneously to enforce physical constraints on the order parameter. In this way, the initially non-smooth problem of evolution is converted into a smooth stationarity problem. The model is implemented in a finite-element code and applied to solve two- and three-dimensional boundary value problems representative for shape memory alloys.

  7. Magnetic field effects on coating deposition rate and surface morphology coatings using magnetron sputtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Yu-Sen; Huang, Wesley

    2010-01-01

    Chromium nitride coatings exhibit superior hardness, excellent wear and oxidation resistance, and are widely applied in the die and mold industries. The aim of this study was to investigate magnetic field effects on the deposition rate and surface morphology of chromium nitride coatings deposited by magnetron sputtering. Four types of magnetic field configurations, including the magnetron sputtering system, SNSN, SNNN, and intermediate magnetron modification, are discussed in this paper. SKD11 cold work die steel and a silicon (100) chip were used as substrates in the chromium nitride depositions. The process parameters, such as target current, substrate bias, and the distance between the substrate and target, are at fixed conditions, except for the magnetic arrangement type. The experimental results showed that the deposition rates of the four types of magnetic field configurations were 1.06, 1.38, 1.67 and 1.26 µm h −1 , respectively. In these cases, the SNNN type performs more than 58% faster than the unbalanced magnetron configuration does for the deposition rate. The surface morphology of chromium nitride films was also examined by SEM and is discussed in this paper

  8. Assessment of soil erosion and deposition rates in a Moroccan agricultural field using fallout 137Cs and 210Pbex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benmansour, M.; Mabit, L.; Nouira, A.; Moussadek, R.; Bouksirate, H.; Duchemin, M.; Benkdad, A.

    2013-01-01

    In Morocco land degradation – mainly caused by soil erosion – is one of the most serious agroenvironmental threats encountered. However, only limited data are available on the actual magnitude of soil erosion. The study site investigated was an agricultural field located in Marchouch (6°42′ W, 33° 47′ N) at 68 km south east from Rabat. This work demonstrates the potential of the combined use of 137 Cs, 210 Pb ex as radioisotopic soil tracers to estimate mid and long term erosion and deposition rates under Mediterranean agricultural areas. The net soil erosion rates obtained were comparable, 14.3 t ha −1 yr −1 and 12.1 ha −1 yr −1 for 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex respectively, resulting in a similar sediment delivery ratio of about 92%. Soil redistribution patterns of the study field were established using a simple spatialisation approach. The resulting maps generated by the use of both radionuclides were similar, indicating that the soil erosion processes has not changed significantly over the last 100 years. Over the previous 10 year period, the additional results provided by the test of the prediction model RUSLE 2 provided results of the same order of magnitude. Based on the 137 Cs dataset established, the contribution of the tillage erosion impact has been evaluated with the Mass Balance Model 3 and compared to the result obtained with the Mass Balance Model 2. The findings highlighted that water erosion is the leading process in this Moroccan cultivated field, tillage erosion under the experimental condition being the main translocation process within the site without a significant and major impact on the net erosion. - Highlights: ► Net erosion rates estimated by 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex techniques were found comparable. ► The water erosion is the leading process in this Moroccan cultivated field. ► Soil erosion process has not changed significantly over the last 100 years. ► The prediction model RUSLE 2 provided results of the same order of

  9. Impact of Increased Football Field Width on Player High-Speed Collision Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Jacob R; Khalsa, Siri S; Smith, Brandon W; Park, Paul

    2017-07-01

    High-acceleration head impact is a known risk for mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) based on studies using helmet accelerometry. In football, offensive and defensive players are at higher risk of mTBI due to increased speed of play. Other collision sport studies suggest that increased playing surface size may contribute to reductions in high-speed collisions. We hypothesized that wider football fields lead to a decreased rate of high-speed collisions. Computer football game simulation was developed using MATLAB. Four wide receivers were matched against 7 defensive players. Each offensive player was randomized to one of 5 typical routes on each play. The ball was thrown 3 seconds into play; ball flight time was 2 seconds. Defensive players were delayed 0.5 second before reacting to ball release. A high-speed collision was defined as the receiver converging with a defensive player within 0.5 second of catching the ball. The simulation counted high-speed collisions for 1 team/season (65 plays/game for 16 games/season = 1040 plays/season) averaged during 10 seasons, and was validated against existing data using standard field width (53.3 yards). Field width was increased in 1-yard intervals up to 58.3 yards. Using standard field width, 188 ± 4 high-speed collisions were seen per team per season (18% of plays). When field width increased by 3 yards, high-speed collision rate decreased to 135 ± 3 per team per season (28% decrease; P football field width can lead to substantial decline in high-speed collisions, with potential for reducing instances of mTBI in football players. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

    2015-12-01

    The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

  11. Electric field prediction for a human body-electric machine system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannides, Maria G; Papadopoulos, Peter J; Dimitropoulou, Eugenia

    2004-01-01

    A system consisting of an electric machine and a human body is studied and the resulting electric field is predicted. A 3-phase induction machine operating at full load is modeled considering its geometry, windings, and materials. A human model is also constructed approximating its geometry and the electric properties of tissues. Using the finite element technique the electric field distribution in the human body is determined for a distance of 1 and 5 m from the machine and its effects are studied. Particularly, electric field potential variations are determined at specific points inside the human body and for these points the electric field intensity is computed and compared to the limit values for exposure according to international standards.

  12. Prediction of maximal lactate steady state in runners with an incremental test on the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leti, Thomas; Mendelson, Monique; Laplaud, David; Flore, Patrice

    2012-01-01

    During a maximal incremental ergocycle test, the power output associated with Respiratory Exchange Ratio equal to 1.00 (RER = 1.00) predicts maximal lactate steady state (MLSS). We hypothesised that these results are transferable for runners on the field. Fourteen runners performed a maximal progressive test, to assess the speed associated with RER = 1.00, and several 30 minutes constant velocity tests to determine the speed at MLSS. We observed that the speeds at RER = 1.00, at the second ventilatory threshold (VT2) and at MLSS did not differ (15.7 ± 1.1 km · h⁻¹, 16.2 ± 1.4 km · h⁻¹, 15.5 ± 1.1 km · h⁻¹ respectively). The speed associated with RER = 1.00 was better correlated with that at MLSS (r = 0.79; p = 0.0008) than that at VT2 (r = 0.73; p = 0.002). Neither the concentration of blood lactate nor the heart rate differed between the speed at RER = 1.00 and that at MLSS from the 10th and the 30th minute of the constant velocity test. Bland and Altman analysis showed a fair agreement between the speed at MLSS and that at RER (0.2 ± 1.4 km · h⁻¹). This study demonstrated that the speed associated with RER = 1.00 determined during maximal progressive track running allows a fair estimation of the speed associated with MLSS, markedly decreasing the burden of numerous invasive tests required to assess it.

  13. Degradation Rate of 5-Fluorouracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A New Predictive Outcome Biomarker?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Botticelli

    Full Text Available 5-FU based chemotherapy is the most common first line regimen used for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC. Identification of predictive markers of response to chemotherapy is a challenging approach for drug selection. The present study analyzes the predictive role of 5-FU degradation rate (5-FUDR and genetic polymorphisms (MTHFR, TSER, DPYD on survival.Genetic polymorphisms of MTHFR, TSER and DPYD, and the 5-FUDR of homogenous patients with mCRC were retrospectively studied. Genetic markers and the 5-FUDR were correlated with clinical outcome.133 patients affected by mCRC, treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy from 2009 to 2014, were evaluated. Patients were classified into three metabolic classes, according to normal distribution of 5-FUDR in more than 1000 patients, as previously published: poor-metabolizer (PM with 5-FU-DR ≤ 0,85 ng/ml/106 cells/min (8 pts; normal metabolizer with 0,85 < 5-FU-DR < 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (119 pts; ultra-rapid metabolizer (UM with 5-FU-DR ≥ 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (6 pts. PM and UM groups showed a longer PFS respect to normal metabolizer group (14.5 and 11 months respectively vs 8 months; p = 0.029. A higher G3-4 toxicity rate was observed in PM and UM, respect to normal metabolizer (50% in both PM and UM vs 18%; p = 0.019. No significant associations between genes polymorphisms and outcomes or toxicities were observed.5-FUDR seems to be significantly involved in predicting survival of patients who underwent 5-FU based CHT for mCRC. Although our findings require confirmation in large prospective studies, they reinforce the concept that individual genetic variation may allow personalized selection of chemotherapy to optimize clinical outcomes.

  14. Using a Monte Carlo model to predict dosimetric properties of small radiotherapy photon fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Alison J. D.; Nahum, Alan E.; Fenwick, John D.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate characterization of small-field dosimetry requires measurements to be made with precisely aligned specialized detectors and is thus time consuming and error prone. This work explores measurement differences between detectors by using a Monte Carlo model matched to large-field data to predict properties of smaller fields. Measurements made with a variety of detectors have been compared with calculated results to assess their validity and explore reasons for differences. Unshielded diodes are expected to produce some of the most useful data, as their small sensitive cross sections give good resolution whilst their energy dependence is shown to vary little with depth in a 15 MV linac beam. Their response is shown to be constant with field size over the range 1-10 cm, with a correction of 3% needed for a field size of 0.5 cm. BEAMnrc has been used to create a 15 MV beam model, matched to dosimetric data for square fields larger than 3 cm, and producing small-field profiles and percentage depth doses (PDDs) that agree well with unshielded diode data for field sizes down to 0.5 cm. For fields sizes of 1.5 cm and above, little detector-to-detector variation exists in measured output factors, however for a 0.5 cm field a relative spread of 18% is seen between output factors measured with different detectors--values measured with the diamond and pinpoint detectors lying below that of the unshielded diode, with the shielded diode value being higher. Relative to the corrected unshielded diode measurement, the Monte Carlo modeled output factor is 4.5% low, a discrepancy that is probably due to the focal spot fluence profile and source occlusion modeling. The large-field Monte Carlo model can, therefore, currently be used to predict small-field profiles and PDDs measured with an unshielded diode. However, determination of output factors for the smallest fields requires a more detailed model of focal spot fluence and source occlusion.

  15. Female song rate and structure predict reproductive success in a socially monogamous bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianne Heather Brunton

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Bird song is commonly regarded as a male trait that has evolved through sexual selection. However, recent research has prompted a re-evaluation of this view by demonstrating that female song is an ancestral and phylogenetically widespread trait. Species with female song provide opportunities to study selective pressures and mechanisms specific to females within the wider context of social competition. We investigated the relationship between reproductive success and female song performance in the New Zealand bellbird (Anthornis melanura, a passerine resident year round in New Zealand temperate forests. We monitored breeding behavior and song over three years on Tiritiri Matangi Island. Female bellbirds contributed significantly more towards parental care than males (solely incubating young and provisioning chicks at more than twice the rate of males. Female song rate in the vicinity of the nest was higher than that of males during incubation and chick-rearing stages but similar during early-nesting and post-breeding stages. Using GLMs, we found that female song rates during both incubation and chick-rearing stages strongly predicted the number of fledged chicks. However, male song rate and male and female chick provisioning rates had no effect on fledging success. Two measures of female song complexity (number of syllable types and the number of transitions between different syllable types were also good predictors of breeding success (GLM on PC scores. In contrast, song duration, the total number of syllables, and the number of ‘stutter’ syllables per song were not correlated with fledging success. It is unclear why male song rate was not associated with reproductive success and we speculate that extra-pair paternity might play a role. While we have previously demonstrated that female bellbird song is important in intrasexual interactions, we clearly demonstrate here that female song predicts reproductive success. These results, with others

  16. Analysis and prediction of translation rate based on sequence and functional features of the mRNA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Huang

    Full Text Available Protein concentrations depend not only on the mRNA level, but also on the translation rate and the degradation rate. Prediction of mRNA's translation rate would provide valuable information for in-depth understanding of the translation mechanism and dynamic proteome. In this study, we developed a new computational model to predict the translation rate, featured by (1 integrating various sequence-derived and functional features, (2 applying the maximum relevance & minimum redundancy method and incremental feature selection to select features to optimize the prediction model, and (3 being able to predict the translation rate of RNA into high or low translation rate category. The prediction accuracies under rich and starvation condition were 68.8% and 70.0%, respectively, evaluated by jackknife cross-validation. It was found that the following features were correlated with translation rate: codon usage frequency, some gene ontology enrichment scores, number of RNA binding proteins known to bind its mRNA product, coding sequence length, protein abundance and 5'UTR free energy. These findings might provide useful information for understanding the mechanisms of translation and dynamic proteome. Our translation rate prediction model might become a high throughput tool for annotating the translation rate of mRNAs in large-scale.

  17. Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

  18. Reactor dosimetry integral reaction rate data in LMFBR Benchmark and standard neutron fields: status, accuracy and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabry, A.; Ceulemans, H.; Vandeplas, P.; McElroy, W.N.; Lippincott, E.P.

    1977-01-01

    This paper provides conclusions that may be drawn regarding the consistency and accuracy of dosimetry cross-section files on the basis of integral reaction rate data measured in U.S. and European benchmark and standard neutron fields. In a discussion of the major experimental facilities CFRMF (Idaho Falls), BIGTEN (Los Alamos), ΣΣ (Mol, Bucharest), NISUS (London), TAPIRO (Roma), FISSION SPECTRA (NBS, Mol, PTB), attention is paid to quantifying the sensitivity of computed integral data relative to the presently evaluated accuracy of the various neutron spectral distributions. The status of available integral data is reviewed and the assigned uncertainties are appraised, including experience gained by interlaboratory comparisons. For all reactions studied and for the various neutron fields, the measured integral data are compared to the ones computed from the ENDF/B-IV and the SAND-II dosimetry cross-section libraries as well as to some other differential data in relevant cases. This comparison, together with the proposed sensitivity and accuracy assessments, is used, whenever possible, to establish how well the best cross-sections evaluated on the basis of differential measurements (category I dosimetry reactions) are reliable in terms of integral reaction rates prediction and, for those reactions for which discrepancies are indicated, in which energy range it is presumed that additional differential measurements might help. For the other reactions (category II), the inconsistencies and trends are examined. The need for further integral measurements and interlaboratory comparisons is also considered

  19. Monitoring and assessment of ingestive chewing sounds for prediction of herbage intake rate in grazing cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, J R; Cangiano, C A; Pece, M A; Larripa, M J; Milone, D H; Utsumi, S A; Laca, E A

    2018-05-01

    Accurate measurement of herbage intake rate is critical to advance knowledge of the ecology of grazing ruminants. This experiment tested the integration of behavioral and acoustic measurements of chewing and biting to estimate herbage dry matter intake (DMI) in dairy cows offered micro-swards of contrasting plant structure. Micro-swards constructed with plastic pots were offered to three lactating Holstein cows (608±24.9 kg of BW) in individual grazing sessions (n=48). Treatments were a factorial combination of two forage species (alfalfa and fescue) and two plant heights (tall=25±3.8 cm and short=12±1.9 cm) and were offered on a gradient of increasing herbage mass (10 to 30 pots) and number of bites (~10 to 40 bites). During each grazing session, sounds of biting and chewing were recorded with a wireless microphone placed on the cows' foreheads and a digital video camera to allow synchronized audio and video recordings. Dry matter intake rate was higher in tall alfalfa than in the other three treatments (32±1.6 v. 19±1.2 g/min). A high proportion of jaw movements in every grazing session (23 to 36%) were compound jaw movements (chew-bites) that appeared to be a key component of chewing and biting efficiency and of the ability of cows to regulate intake rate. Dry matter intake was accurately predicted based on easily observable behavioral and acoustic variables. Chewing sound energy measured as energy flux density (EFD) was linearly related to DMI, with 74% of EFD variation explained by DMI. Total chewing EFD, number of chew-bites and plant height (tall v. short) were the most important predictors of DMI. The best model explained 91% of the variation in DMI with a coefficient of variation of 17%. Ingestive sounds integrate valuable information to remotely monitor feeding behavior and predict DMI in grazing cows.

  20. Reducing Bias in Citizens’ Perception of Crime Rates: Evidence From a Field Experiment on Burglary Prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Martin Vinæs; Olsen, Asmus Leth

    2018-01-01

    Citizens are on average too pessimistic when assessing the trajectory of current crime trends. In this study, we examine whether we can correct this perceptual bias with respect to burglaries. Using a field experiment coupled with a large panel survey (n=4,895), we explore whether a public...... information campaign can reduce misperceptions about the prevalence of burglaries. Embedding the correct information about burglary rates in a direct mail campaign, we find that it is possible to substantially reduce citizens’ misperceptions. The effects are not short lived – they are detectable several weeks...... after the mailer was sent, but they are temporary. Eventually the perceptual bias re-emerges. Our results suggest that if citizens were continually supplied with correct information about crime rates they would be less pessimistic. Reducing bias in citizens’ perception of crime rates might therefore...

  1. Field Tests to Investigate the Penetration Rate of Piles Driven by Vibratory Installation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaohui Qin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Factors directly affecting the penetration rate of piles installed by vibratory driving technique are summarized and classified into seven aspects which are driving force, resistance, vibratory amplitude, energy consumption, speeding up at the beginning, pile plumbness keeping, and slowing down at the end, from the mechanism and engineering practice of the vibratory pile driving. In order to find out how these factors affect the penetration rate of the pile in three major actors of vibratory pile driving: (i the pile to be driven, (ii the selected driving system, and (iii the imposed soil conditions, field tests on steel sheet piles driven by vibratory driving technique in different soil conditions are conducted. The penetration rates of three different sheet pile types having up to four different lengths installed using two different vibratory driving systems are documented. Piles with different lengths and types driven with or without clutch have different penetration rates. The working parameters of vibratory hammer, such as driving force and vibratory amplitude, have great influences on the penetration rate of the pile, especially at the later stages of the sinking process. Penetration rate of piles driven in different soil conditions is uniform because of the different penetration resistance including shaft friction and toe resistance.

  2. Investigation of the validity of radiosity for sound-field prediction in cubic rooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosal, Eva-Marie; Hodgson, Murray; Ashdown, Ian

    2004-12-01

    This paper explores acoustical (or time-dependent) radiosity using predictions made in four cubic enclosures. The methods and algorithms used are those presented in a previous paper by the same authors [Nosal, Hodgson, and Ashdown, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 116(2), 970-980 (2004)]. First, the algorithm, methods, and conditions for convergence are investigated by comparison of numerous predictions for the four cubic enclosures. Here, variables and parameters used in the predictions are varied to explore the effect of absorption distribution, the necessary conditions for convergence of the numerical solution to the analytical solution, form-factor prediction methods, and the computational requirements. The predictions are also used to investigate the effect of absorption distribution on sound fields in cubic enclosures with diffusely reflecting boundaries. Acoustical radiosity is then compared to predictions made in the four enclosures by a ray-tracing model that can account for diffuse reflection. Comparisons are made of echograms, room-acoustical parameters, and discretized echograms. .

  3. A prescribed wake rotor inflow and flow field prediction analysis, user's manual and technical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egolf, T. A.; Landgrebe, A. J.

    1982-01-01

    A user's manual is provided which includes the technical approach for the Prescribed Wake Rotor Inflow and Flow Field Prediction Analysis. The analysis is used to provide the rotor wake induced velocities at the rotor blades for use in blade airloads and response analyses and to provide induced velocities at arbitrary field points such as at a tail surface. This analysis calculates the distribution of rotor wake induced velocities based on a prescribed wake model. Section operating conditions are prescribed from blade motion and controls determined by a separate blade response analysis. The analysis represents each blade by a segmented lifting line, and the rotor wake by discrete segmented trailing vortex filaments. Blade loading and circulation distributions are calculated based on blade element strip theory including the local induced velocity predicted by the numerical integration of the Biot-Savart Law applied to the vortex wake model.

  4. Short-range dynamics and prediction of mesoscale flow patterns in the MISTRAL field experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, R.O.; Kaufmann, P.; Talkner, P. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    In a limited area of about 50 km by 50 km with complex topography, wind measurements on a dense network were performed during the MISTRAL field experiment in 1991-1992. From these data the characteristic wind fields were identified by an automated classification method. The dynamics of the resulting twelve typical regional flow patterns is studied. It is discussed how transitions between the flow patterns take place and how well the transition probabilities can be described in the framework of a Markov model. Guided by this discussion, a variety of prediction models were tested which allow a short-term forecast of the flow pattern type. It is found that a prediction model which uses forecast information from the synoptic scale has the best forecast skill. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  5. Field observations of turbulent dissipation rate profiles immediately below the air-water interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Binbin; Liao, Qian

    2016-06-01

    Near surface profiles of turbulence immediately below the air-water interface were measured with a free-floating Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) system on Lake Michigan. The surface-following configuration allowed the system to measure the statistics of the aqueous-side turbulence in the topmost layer immediately below the water surface (z≈0˜15 cm, z points downward with 0 at the interface). Profiles of turbulent dissipation rate (ɛ) were investigated under a variety of wind and wave conditions. Various methods were applied to estimate the dissipation rate. Results suggest that these methods yield consistent dissipation rate profiles with reasonable scattering. In general, the dissipation rate decreases from the water surface following a power law relation in the top layer, ɛ˜z-0.7, i.e., the slope of the decrease was lower than that predicted by the wall turbulence theory, and the dissipation was considerably higher in the top layer for cases with higher wave ages. The measured dissipation rate profiles collapse when they were normalized with the wave speed, wave height, water-side friction velocity, and the wave age. This scaling suggests that the enhanced turbulence may be attributed to the additional source of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) at the "skin layer" (likely due to micro-breaking), and its downward transport in the water column.

  6. The negativity bias predicts response rate to Behavioral Activation for depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollan, Jackie K; Hoxha, Denada; Hunnicutt-Ferguson, Kallio; Norris, Catherine J; Rosebrock, Laina; Sankin, Lindsey; Cacioppo, John

    2016-09-01

    This treatment study investigated the extent to which asymmetric dimensions of affective responding, specifically the positivity offset and the negativity bias, at pretreatment altered the rate of response to Behavioral Activation treatment for depression. Forty-one depressed participants were enrolled into 16 weekly sessions of BA. An additional 36 lifetime healthy participants were evaluated prospectively for 16 weeks to compare affective responding between healthy and remitted patients at post-treatment. All participants were assessed at Weeks 0, 8 and 16 using repeated measures, involving a structured clinical interview for DSM-IV Axis I disorders, questionnaires, and a computerized task designed to measure affective responses to unpleasant, neutral, and pleasant images. The negativity bias at pre-treatment predicted the rate of response to BA, while the positivity offset did not. Only one treatment condition was used in this study and untreated depressed participants were not enrolled, limiting our ability to compare the effect of BA. Baseline negativity bias may serve as a signal for patients to engage in and benefit from the goal-directed BA strategies, thereby accelerating rate of response. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Using heart rate to predict energy expenditure in large domestic dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerth, N; Ruoß, C; Dobenecker, B; Reese, S; Starck, J M

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to establish heart rate as a measure of energy expenditure in large active kennel dogs (28 ± 3 kg bw). Therefore, the heart rate (HR)-oxygen consumption (V˙O2) relationship was analysed in Foxhound-Boxer-Ingelheim-Labrador cross-breds (FBI dogs) at rest and graded levels of exercise on a treadmill up to 60-65% of maximal aerobic capacity. To test for effects of training, HR and V˙O2 were measured in female dogs, before and after a training period, and after an adjacent training pause to test for reversibility of potential effects. Least squares regression was applied to describe the relationship between HR and V˙O2. The applied training had no statistically significant effect on the HR-V˙O2 regression. A general regression line from all data collected was prepared to establish a general predictive equation for energy expenditure from HR in FBI dogs. The regression equation established in this study enables fast estimation of energy requirement for running activity. The equation is valid for large dogs weighing around 30 kg that run at ground level up to 15 km/h with a heart rate maximum of 190 bpm irrespective of the training level. Journal of Animal Physiology and Animal Nutrition © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Value of Heart Rate Variability Indices in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Kastelianne França da Silva

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Heart rate variability (HRV indices may detect autonomic changes with good diagnostic accuracy. Type diabetes mellitus (DM individuals may have changes in autonomic modulation; however, studies of this nature in this population are still scarce. Objective: To compare HRV indices between and assess their prognostic value by measurements of sensitivity, specificity and predictive values in young individuals with type 1 DM and healthy volunteers. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, physical and clinical assessment was performed in 39 young patients with type 1 DM and 43 young healthy controls. For HRV analysis, beat-to-beat heart rate variability was measured in dorsal decubitus, using a Polar S810i heart rate monitor, for 30 minutes. The following indices were calculated: SDNN, RMSSD, PNN50, TINN, RRTri, LF ms2, HF ms2, LF un, HF un, LF/HF, SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, and ApEn. Results: Type 1 DM subjects showed a decrease in sympathetic and parasympathetic activities, and overall variability of autonomic nervous system. The RMSSD, SDNN, PNN50, LF ms2, HF ms2, RRTri, SD1 and SD2 indices showed greater diagnostic accuracy in discriminating diabetic from healthy individuals. Conclusion: Type 1 DM individuals have changes in autonomic modulation. The SDNN, RMSSD, PNN50, RRtri, LF ms2, HF ms2, SD1 and SD2 indices may be alternative tools to discriminate individuals with type 1 DM.

  9. Testing for the 'predictability' of dynamically triggered earthquakes in The Geysers geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne

    2018-03-01

    The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is 'predictable' or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily 'predictable' in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to 'predict' what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

  10. DeepCNF-D: Predicting Protein Order/Disorder Regions by Weighted Deep Convolutional Neural Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Intrinsically disordered proteins or protein regions are involved in key biological processes including regulation of transcription, signal transduction, and alternative splicing. Accurately predicting order/disorder regions ab initio from the protein sequence is a prerequisite step for further analysis of functions and mechanisms for these disordered regions. This work presents a learning method, weighted DeepCNF (Deep Convolutional Neural Fields, to improve the accuracy of order/disorder prediction by exploiting the long-range sequential information and the interdependency between adjacent order/disorder labels and by assigning different weights for each label during training and prediction to solve the label imbalance issue. Evaluated by the CASP9 and CASP10 targets, our method obtains 0.855 and 0.898 AUC values, which are higher than the state-of-the-art single ab initio predictors.

  11. The role of unsteady effusion rates on inflation in long-lived lava flow fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rader, E.; Vanderkluysen, L.; Clarke, A.

    2017-11-01

    The emission of volcanic gases and particles can have global and lasting environmental effects, but their timing, tempo, and duration can be problematic to quantify for ancient eruptions where real-time measurements are absent. Lava flows, for example, may be long-lasting, and their impact is controlled by the rate, tempo, and vigor of effusion. These factors are currently difficult to derive from the geologic record but can have large implications for the atmospheric impact of an eruption. We conducted a set of analogue experiments on lava flow inflation aiming at connecting lava morphologies preserved in the rock record to eruption tempo and dynamics through pulsating effusion rates. Inflation, a process where molten material is injected beneath the crust of an active lava flow and lifts it upwards, is a common phenomenon in basaltic volcanic systems. This mechanism requires three components: a) a coherent, insulating crust; b) a wide-spread molten core; and c) pressure built up beneath the crust from a sustained supply of molten material. Inflation can result in a lava flow growing tens of meters thick, even in flow fields that expand hundreds of square kilometers. It has been documented that rapid effusion rates tend to create channels and tubes, isolating the active part of the flow from the stagnant part, while slow effusion rates may cause crust to form quickly and seize up, forcing lava to overtop the crust. However, the conditions that allow for inflation of large flow fields have not previously been evaluated in terms of effusion rate. By using PEG 600 wax and a programmable pump, we observe how, by pulsating effusion rate, inflation occurs even in very low viscosity basaltic eruptions. We show that observations from inflating Hawaiian lava flows correlate well with experimental data and indicate that instantaneous effusion rates may have been 3 times higher than average effusion rates during the emplacement of the 23 January 1988 flow at Kīlauea (Hawai

  12. Prediction of the diffuse-field transmission loss of interior natural-ventilation openings and silencers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibby, Chris; Hodgson, Murray

    2017-01-01

    The work reported here, part of a study on the performance and optimal design of interior natural-ventilation openings and silencers ("ventilators"), discusses the prediction of the acoustical performance of such ventilators, and the factors that affect it. A wave-based numerical approach-the finite-element method (FEM)-is applied. The development of a FEM technique for the prediction of ventilator diffuse-field transmission loss is presented. Model convergence is studied with respect to mesh, frequency-sampling and diffuse-field convergence. The modeling technique is validated by way of predictions and the comparison of them to analytical and experimental results. The transmission-loss performance of crosstalk silencers of four shapes, and the factors that affect it, are predicted and discussed. Performance increases with flow-path length for all silencer types. Adding elbows significantly increases high-frequency transmission loss, but does not increase overall silencer performance which is controlled by low-to-mid-frequency transmission loss.

  13. Laboratory shake flask batch tests can predict field biodegradation of aniline in the Rhine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toräng, Lars; Reuschenbach, P.; Müller, B.

    2001-01-01

    .7 degreesC, respectively. This field rate estimate was compared with results from 38 laboratory shake flask batch tests with Rhine water which averaged 1.5 day(-1) at 15 degreesC and 2.0 day(-1) at 20 degreesC. These results indicate that laboratory shake flask batch tests with low concentrations of test...

  14. Predictive value of casual ECG-based resting heart rate compared with resting heart rate obtained from Holter recording

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, Nicholas; Dixen, Ulrik; Marott, Jacob L

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Assessment of heart rate (HR) from Holter recording may afford a more precise estimate of the effect of RHR on cardiovascular risk, as compared to casual RHR. Comparative analysis was carried ...

  15. Addition and spin exchange rate constants by longitudinal field μSR: the Mu + NO reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senba, Masayoshi; Gonzalez, A.C.; Kempton, J.R.; Arseneau, D.J.; Pan, J.J.; Tempelmann, A.; Fleming, D.G.

    1991-01-01

    The addition reaction Mu + NO + M → MuNO + M and the spin exchange reaction Mu(↑) + NO(↓)→Mu(↓)+NO(↑) have been measured by longitudinal field μSR at room temperature in the presence of up to 58 atm of N 2 as inert collider. The pressure dependence of the longitudinal relaxation rate due to the addition reaction (λ c ) demonstrates that the system is still in the low pressure regime in this pressure range. The corresponding termolecular rate constant has been determined as k 0.Mu =(1.10±0.25)x10 -32 cm 6 molecules -2 s -1 , almost 4 times smaller than the corresponding H atom reaction k 0,H =3.90x10 -32 cm 6 molecules -2 s -1 . The average value of the spin exchange rate constants in the 2.5-58 atm pressure range, k SE = (3.16±0.06)x10 -10 cm 3 molecule -1 s -1 , is in good agreement with previous values obtained by transverse field μSR. (orig.)

  16. Predicting Ionization Rates from SEP and Solar Wind Proton Precipitation into the Martian Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolitz, R.; Dong, C.; Lee, C. O.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Brain, D.; Halekas, J. S.; Larson, D. E.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitating energetic particles ionize planetary atmospheres and increase total electron content. At Mars, the solar wind and solar energetic particles (SEPs) can precipitate directly into the atmosphere because solar wind protons can charge exchange to become neutrals and pass through the magnetosheath, while SEPs are sufficiently energetic to cross the magnetosheath unchanged. In this study we will present predicted ionization rates and resulting electron densities produced by solar wind and SEP proton ionization during nominal solar activity and a CME shock front impact event on May 16 2016. We will use the Atmospheric Scattering of Protons and Energetic Neutrals (ASPEN) model to compare ionization by SEP and solar wind protons currently measured by the SWIA (Solar Wind Ion Analyzer) and SEP instruments aboard the MAVEN spacecraft. Results will help to quantify how the ionosphere responds to extreme solar events during solar minimum.

  17. Influence of the Convection Electric Field Models on Predicted Plasmapause Positions During Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrard, V.; Khazanov, G.; Cabrera, J.; Lemaire, J.

    2007-01-01

    In the present work, we determine how three well documented models of the magnetospheric electric field, and two different mechanisms proposed for the formation of the plasmapause influence the radial distance, the shape and the evolution of the plasmapause during the geomagnetic storms of 28 October 2001 and of 17 April 2002. The convection electric field models considered are: Mcllwain's E51) electric field model, Volland-Stern's model and Weimer's statistical model compiled from low-Earth orbit satellite data. The mechanisms for the formation of the plasmapause to be tested are: (i) the MHD theory where the plasmapause should correspond to the last-closed- equipotential (LCE) or last-closed-streamline (LCS), if the E-field distribution is stationary or time-dependent respectively; (ii) the interchange mechanism where the plasmapause corresponds to streamlines tangent to a Zero-Parallel-Force surface where the field-aligned plasma distribution becomes convectively unstable during enhancements of the E-field intensity in the nightside local time sector. The results of the different time dependent simulations are compared with concomitant EUV observations when available. The plasmatails or plumes observed after both selected geomagnetic storms are predicted in all simulations and for all E-field models. However, their shapes are quite different depending on the E-field models and the mechanisms that are used. Despite the partial success of the simulations to reproduce plumes during magnetic storms and substorms, there remains a long way to go before the detailed structures observed in the EUV observations during periods of geomagnetic activity can be accounted for very precisely by the existing E-field models. Furthermore, it cannot be excluded that the mechanisms currently identified to explain the formation of "Carpenter's knee" during substorm events, will', have to be revised or complemented in the cases of geomagnetic storms.

  18. Predicting Precession Rates from Secular Dynamics for Extra-solar Multi-planet Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Laerhoven, Christa

    2015-12-01

    Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods and have used this to predict what range of pericenter precession (and nodal regression) rates the planets may have. One might have assumed that in any given system the planets with shorter periods would have faster precession rates, but I show that this is not necessarily the case. Planets that are 'loners' have narrow ranges of possible precession rates, while planets that are 'groupies' can have a wider range of possible precession rates. Several planets are expected to undergo significant precession on few-year timescales and many planets (though not the majority of planets) will undergo significant precession on decade timescales.

  19. National Economic Conditions and Patient Insurance Status Predict Prostate Cancer Diagnosis Rates and Management Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Adam B; Conti, Rena M; Eggener, Scott E

    2016-05-01

    The recent Great Recession from December 2007 to June 2009 presents a unique opportunity to examine whether the incidence of nonpalpable prostate cancer decreases while conservative management for nonpalpable prostate cancer increases during periods of national economic hardship. We derived rates of national monthly diagnosis and conservative management for screen detected, nonpalpable prostate cancer and patient level insurance status from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results) database from 2004 to 2011. We derived monthly statistics on national unemployment rates, inflation, median household income and S&P 500® closing values from government sources. Using linear and logistic multivariable regression we measured the correlation of national macroeconomic conditions with prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment patterns. We evaluated patient level predictors of conservative management to determine whether being insured by Medicaid or uninsured increased the use of conservative management. Diagnosis rates correlated positively with the S&P 500 monthly close (coefficient 24.90, 95% CI 6.29-43.50, p = 0.009). Conservative management correlated negatively with median household income (coefficient -49.13, 95% CI -69.29--28.98, p management compared to that in men with private insurance. As indicated by a significant interaction term being diagnosed during the Great Recession increased the Medicaid insurance predictive value of conservative management (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.68, p = 0.037). National economic hardship was associated with decreased diagnosis rates of nonpalpable prostate cancer and increased conservative management. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction of PWSCC in nickel base alloys using crack growth rate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Ford/Andresen slip dissolution SCC model, originally developed for stainless steel components in BWR environments, has been applied to Alloy 600 and Alloy X-750 tested in deaerated pure water chemistry. A method is described whereby the crack growth rates measured in compact tension specimens can be used to estimate crack growth in a component. Good agreement was found between model prediction and measured SCC in X-750 threaded fasteners over a wide range of temperatures, stresses, and material condition. Most data support the basic assumption of this model that cracks initiate early in life. The evidence supporting a particular SCC mechanism is mixed. Electrochemical repassivation data and estimates of oxide fracture strain indicate that the slip dissolution model can account for the observed crack growth rates, provided primary rather than secondary creep rates are used. However, approximately 100 cross-sectional TEM foils of SCC cracks including crack tips reveal no evidence of enhanced plasticity or unique dislocation patterns at the crack tip or along the crack to support a classic slip dissolution mechanism. No voids, hydrides,, or microcracks are found in the vicinity of the crack tips creating doubt about classic hydrogen related mechanisms. The bulk oxide films exhibit a surface oxide which is often different than the oxide found within a crack. Although bulk chromium concentration affects the rate of SCC, analytical data indicates the mechanism does not result from chromium depletion at the grain boundaries. The overall findings support a corrosion/dissolution mechanism but not one necessarily related to slip at the crack tip. (author). 12 refs, 27 figs

  1. Validation of predictive equations for glomerular filtration rate in the Saudi population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Wakeel Jamal

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive equations provide a rapid method of assessing glomerular filtration rate (GFR. To compare the various predictive equations for the measurement of this parameter in the Saudi population, we measured GFR by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD and Cockcroft-Gault formulas, cystatin C, reciprocal of cystatin C, creatinine clearance, reciprocal of creatinine, and inulin clearance in 32 Saudi subjects with different stages of renal disease. We com-pared GFR measured by inulin clearance and the estimated GFR by the equations. The study included 19 males (59.4% and 13 (40.6% females with a mean age of 42.3 ± 15.2 years and weight of 68.6 ± 17.7 kg. The mean serum creatinine was 199 ± 161 μmol/L. The GFR measured by inulin clearance was 50.9 ± 33.5 mL/min, and the estimated by Cockcroft-Gault and by MDRD equations was 56.3 ± 33.3 and 52.8 ± 32.0 mL/min, respectively. The GFR estimated by MDRD revealed the strongest correlation with the measured inulin clearance (r= 0.976, P= 0.0000 followed by the GFR estimated by Cockcroft-Gault, serum cystatin C, and serum creatinine (r= 0.953, P= 0.0000 (r= 0.787, P= 0.0001 (r= -0.678, P= 0.001, respectively. The reciprocal of cystatin C and serum creatinine revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.826 and 0.93, respectively. Cockroft-Gault for-mula overestimated the GFR by 5.40 ± 10.3 mL/min in comparison to the MDRD formula, which exhibited the best correlation with inulin clearance in different genders, age groups, body mass index, renal transplant recipients, chronic kidney disease stages when compared to other GFR predictive equations.

  2. An empirical model for prediction of household solid waste generation rate - A case study of Dhanbad, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Atul; Samadder, S R

    2017-10-01

    Accurate prediction of the quantity of household solid waste generation is very much essential for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW). In actual practice, modelling methods are often found useful for precise prediction of MSW generation rate. In this study, two models have been proposed that established the relationships between the household solid waste generation rate and the socioeconomic parameters, such as household size, total family income, education, occupation and fuel used in the kitchen. Multiple linear regression technique was applied to develop the two models, one for the prediction of biodegradable MSW generation rate and the other for non-biodegradable MSW generation rate for individual households of the city Dhanbad, India. The results of the two models showed that the coefficient of determinations (R 2 ) were 0.782 for biodegradable waste generation rate and 0.676 for non-biodegradable waste generation rate using the selected independent variables. The accuracy tests of the developed models showed convincing results, as the predicted values were very close to the observed values. Validation of the developed models with a new set of data indicated a good fit for actual prediction purpose with predicted R 2 values of 0.76 and 0.64 for biodegradable and non-biodegradable MSW generation rate respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting galaxy star formation rates via the co-evolution of galaxies and haloes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Douglas F.; Hearin, Andrew P.; Berlind, Andreas A.; Becker, Matthew R.; Behroozi, Peter S.; Skibba, Ramin A.; Reyes, Reinabelle; Zentner, Andrew R.; van den Bosch, Frank C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we test the age matching hypothesis that the star formation rate (SFR) of a galaxy of fixed stellar mass is determined by its dark matter halo formation history, e.g. more quiescent galaxies reside in older haloes. We present new Sloan Digital Sky Survey measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function and galaxy-galaxy lensing as a function of stellar mass and SFR, separated into quenched and star-forming galaxy samples to test this simple model. We find that our age matching model is in excellent agreement with these new measurements. We also find that our model is able to predict: (1) the relative SFRs of central and satellite galaxies, (2) the SFR dependence of the radial distribution of satellite galaxy populations within galaxy groups, rich groups, and clusters and their surrounding larger scale environments, and (3) the interesting feature that the satellite quenched fraction as a function of projected radial distance from the central galaxy exhibits an ˜r-.15 slope, independent of environment. These accurate predictions are intriguing given that we do not explicitly model satellite-specific processes after infall, and that in our model the virial radius does not mark a special transition region in the evolution of a satellite. The success of the model suggests that present-day galaxy SFR is strongly correlated with halo mass assembly history.

  4. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  5. Introducing ab initio based neural networks for transition-rate prediction in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messina, Luca; Castin, Nicolas; Domain, Christophe; Olsson, Pär

    2017-02-01

    The quality of kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations of microstructure evolution in alloys relies on the parametrization of point-defect migration rates, which are complex functions of the local chemical composition and can be calculated accurately with ab initio methods. However, constructing reliable models that ensure the best possible transfer of physical information from ab initio to KMC is a challenging task. This work presents an innovative approach, where the transition rates are predicted by artificial neural networks trained on a database of 2000 migration barriers, obtained with density functional theory (DFT) in place of interatomic potentials. The method is tested on copper precipitation in thermally aged iron alloys, by means of a hybrid atomistic-object KMC model. For the object part of the model, the stability and mobility properties of copper-vacancy clusters are analyzed by means of independent atomistic KMC simulations, driven by the same neural networks. The cluster diffusion coefficients and mean free paths are found to increase with size, confirming the dominant role of coarsening of medium- and large-sized clusters in the precipitation kinetics. The evolution under thermal aging is in better agreement with experiments with respect to a previous interatomic-potential model, especially concerning the experiment time scales. However, the model underestimates the solubility of copper in iron due to the excessively high solution energy predicted by the chosen DFT method. Nevertheless, this work proves the capability of neural networks to transfer complex ab initio physical properties to higher-scale models, and facilitates the extension to systems with increasing chemical complexity, setting the ground for reliable microstructure evolution simulations in a wide range of alloys and applications.

  6. A validated disease specific prediction equation for resting metabolic rate in underweight patients with COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Nordenson

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Anita Nordenson2, Anne Marie Grönberg1,2, Lena Hulthén1, Sven Larsson2, Frode Slinde11Department of Clinical Nutrition, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden; 2Department of Internal Medicine/Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, SwedenAbstract: Malnutrition is a serious condition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. Successful dietary intervention calls for calculations of resting metabolic rate (RMR. One disease-specific prediction equation for RMR exists based on mainly male patients. To construct a disease-specific equation for RMR based on measurements in underweight or weight-losing women and men with COPD, RMR was measured by indirect calorimetry in 30 women and 11 men with a diagnosis of COPD and body mass index <21 kg/m2. The following variables, possibly influencing RMR were measured: length, weight, middle upper arm circumference, triceps skinfold, body composition by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry and bioelectrical impedance, lung function, and markers of inflammation. Relations between RMR and measured variables were studied using univariate analysis according to Pearson. Gender and variables that were associated with RMR with a P value <0.15 were included in a forward multiple regression analysis. The best-fit multiple regression equation included only fat-free mass (FFM: RMR (kJ/day = 1856 + 76.0 FFM (kg. To conclude, FFM is the dominating factor influencing RMR. The developed equation can be used for prediction of RMR in underweight COPD patients.Keywords: pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive, basal metabolic rate, malnutrition, body composition

  7. Executive functioning independently predicts self-rated health and improvement in self-rated health over time among community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McHugh, Joanna Edel; Lawlor, Brian A

    2016-01-01

    Self-rated health, as distinct from objective measures of health, is a clinically informative metric among older adults. The purpose of our study was to examine the cognitive and psychosocial factors associated with self-rated health. 624 participants over the age of 60 were assessed at baseline, and of these, 510 were contacted for a follow-up two years later. Measures of executive function and self-rated health were assessed at baseline, and self-rated health was assessed at follow-up. We employed multiple linear regression analyses to investigate the relationship between executive functioning and self-rated health, while controlling for demographic, psychosocial and biological variables. Controlling for other relevant variables, executive functioning independently and solely predicted self-rated health, both at a cross-sectional level, and also over time. Loneliness was also found to cross-sectionally predict self-rated health, although this relationship was not present at a longitudinal level. Older adults' self-rated health may be related to their executive functioning and to their loneliness. Self-rated health appeared to improve over time, and the extent of this improvement was also related to executive functioning at baseline. Self-rated health may be a judgement made of one's functioning, especially executive functioning, which changes with age and therefore may be particularly salient in the reflections of older adults.

  8. Jumps of the local magnetic field near CICC during external magnetic field ramp and their connection with the ramp rate limitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vysotsky, V.S.; Takayasu, M.; Minervini, J.V.

    1997-01-01

    A new method has been developed to study Ramp Rate Limitation (RRL) phenomena. Samples of ITER-type cable-in-conduit (CICC) subcable were instrumented with local field sensors such as Hall probes and pick-up coils and then subjected to rapidly changing external magnetic field. The authors found that during fast field sweeps some discontinuous changes, or jumps occur in the local field. They believe that these jumps indicate a fast current redistribution processes inside CICC. Detailed information about local magnetic field jumps during changing field is presented. Possible origin of the jumps and their connection with RRL are discussed

  9. Spatial correlation structure of the ionosphere predicted by geomagnetic indices and application to global field modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holschneider, M.; Ferrat, K.; Lesur, V.; Stolle, C.

    2017-12-01

    Ionospheric fields are modelled in terms of random structures taking into account a mean behaviour as well as random fluctuations which are described through two point correlation kernels. These kernels are estimated from long time series of numerical simulations from various models. These correlations are best expressed in SM system of coordinates. For the moment we limit ourselves to spatial correlations only in this coordinate system. We study the influence of various indices as possible predictor parameters for these correlations as well as seasonal effects. The various time series of ionospheric fields are stored in a HDF5 database which is accessible via a web interface. The obtained correlation structures serve as prior information to separate external and internal field components from observatory based measurements. We present a model that predicts the correlations as a function of time and some geomagnetic indices. First results of the inversion from observatory data are presented.

  10. The effect of electrostatic field on the rate of metal vaporization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsirlin, M.S.; Lyubimov, V.D.; Krasovskij, A.I.

    1982-01-01

    Evaporation kinetics of molybdenum and tungsten filaments 30 and 80 μm in diameter, when vacuum constitutes 1.3x10 -1 -1.3x10 -3 Pa, the temperature is 1470 K for tungsten and 1270-1670 K for Mo and intensity is E=10 7 -10 8 V/m, has been measured. In supposition of evaporation of oxide mole-- cules from metal surface the density of molecule current of (MoO 3 ) 3 and (WO 3 ) 3 over solid (MoO 3 ) 3 and (WO 3 ) 3 is determined. It is established that the rate of molecule removal from the filament under the effect of heterogeneous electric field increases with the increase of dipole momentum of (WO 3 ) 3 and (MoO 3 ) 3 , the value of field intensity and with metal temperature decrease

  11. Analysis of family-wise error rates in statistical parametric mapping using random field theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flandin, Guillaume; Friston, Karl J

    2017-11-01

    This technical report revisits the analysis of family-wise error rates in statistical parametric mapping-using random field theory-reported in (Eklund et al. []: arXiv 1511.01863). Contrary to the understandable spin that these sorts of analyses attract, a review of their results suggests that they endorse the use of parametric assumptions-and random field theory-in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data. We briefly rehearse the advantages parametric analyses offer over nonparametric alternatives and then unpack the implications of (Eklund et al. []: arXiv 1511.01863) for parametric procedures. Hum Brain Mapp, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Features of working in fields with high values of exposure dose rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samojlenko, Yu.N.

    1989-01-01

    Features of working in fields with the exposure dose rate (EDR) ∼ 1000-7000 R/h are described. Data on the performed operations concerning initial decontamination of the Chernobyl-3 reactor roof during 10.07.86-03.10.86 are presented. It is marked that the methodical recommendations on working in fields with high values of EDR are absent in our country and abroad and it is necessary to develop them on the basis of obtained experience. Moreover, there are no protective means (protective clotting). Main principles of its creation are the protection of critical organ groups and comfort in working. Personnel should be specially trained and get phychologically ready. 2 figs., 1 tab

  13. Assessment of soil erosion and deposition rates in a Moroccan agricultural field using fallout 137Cs and 210Pbex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benmansour, M; Mabit, L; Nouira, A; Moussadek, R; Bouksirate, H; Duchemin, M; Benkdad, A

    2013-01-01

    In Morocco land degradation - mainly caused by soil erosion - is one of the most serious agroenvironmental threats encountered. However, only limited data are available on the actual magnitude of soil erosion. The study site investigated was an agricultural field located in Marchouch (6°42' W, 33° 47' N) at 68 km south east from Rabat. This work demonstrates the potential of the combined use of (137)Cs, (210)Pb(ex) as radioisotopic soil tracers to estimate mid and long term erosion and deposition rates under Mediterranean agricultural areas. The net soil erosion rates obtained were comparable, 14.3 t ha(-1) yr(-1) and 12.1 ha(-1) yr(-1) for (137)Cs and (210)Pb(ex) respectively, resulting in a similar sediment delivery ratio of about 92%. Soil redistribution patterns of the study field were established using a simple spatialisation approach. The resulting maps generated by the use of both radionuclides were similar, indicating that the soil erosion processes has not changed significantly over the last 100 years. Over the previous 10 year period, the additional results provided by the test of the prediction model RUSLE 2 provided results of the same order of magnitude. Based on the (137)Cs dataset established, the contribution of the tillage erosion impact has been evaluated with the Mass Balance Model 3 and compared to the result obtained with the Mass Balance Model 2. The findings highlighted that water erosion is the leading process in this Moroccan cultivated field, tillage erosion under the experimental condition being the main translocation process within the site without a significant and major impact on the net erosion. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. New England observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted August stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  15. New England observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum positive daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  16. New England observed and predicted July maximum negative stream/river temperature daily rate of change points

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The shapefile contains points with associated observed and predicted July stream/river temperature maximum negative daily rate of change in New England based on a...

  17. Value of Serial Heart Rate Variability Measurement for Prediction of Appropriate ICD Discharge in Patients with Heart Failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ten Sande, Judith N.; Damman, Peter; Tijssen, Jan G. P.; de Groot, Joris R.; Knops, Reinoud E.; Wilde, Arthur A. M.; van Dessel, Pascal F. H. M.

    2014-01-01

    HRV and Appropriate ICD Shock in Heart Failure Introduction Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure. Our objective was to examine whether decreased HRV predicts appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks. Methods

  18. Heart Rate Recovery After 6-Min Walk Test Predicts Survival in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swigris, Jeffrey J.; Swick, Jeff; Wamboldt, Frederick S.; Sprunger, David; du Bois, Roland; Fischer, Aryeh; Cosgrove, Gregory P.; Frankel, Stephen K.; Fernandez-Perez, Evans R.; Kervitsky, Dolly; Brown, Kevin K.

    2009-01-01

    Background: In patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), our objectives were to identify predictors of abnormal heart rate recovery (HRR) at 1 min after completion of a 6-min walk test (6MWT) [HRR1] and 2 min after completion of a 6MWT (HRR2), and to determine whether abnormal HRR predicts mortality. Methods: From 2003 to 2008, we identified IPF patients who had been evaluated at our center (n = 76) with a pulmonary physiologic examination and the 6MWT. We used logistic regression to identify predictors of abnormal HRR, the product-limit method to compare survival in the sample stratified on HRR, and Cox proportional hazards analysis to estimate the prognostic capability of abnormal HRR. Results: Cutoff values were 13 beats for abnormal HRR1 and 22 beats for HRR2. In a multivariable model, predictors of abnormal HRR1 were diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (odds ratio [OR], 0.4 per 10% predicted; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.7; p = 0.003), change in heart rate from baseline to maximum (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.8 to 0.97; p = 0.01), and having a right ventricular systolic pressure > 35 mm Hg as determined by transthoracic echocardiogram (OR, 12.7; 95% CI, 2.0 to 79.7; p = 0.01). Subjects with an abnormal HRR had significantly worse survival than subjects with a normal HRR (for HRR1, p = 0.0007 [log-rank test]; for HRR2, p = 0.03 [log-rank test]); these results held for the subgroup of 30 subjects without resting pulmonary hypertension (HRR1, p = 0.04 [log-rank test]). Among several candidate variables, abnormal HRR1 appeared to be the most potent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 5.2; 95% CI, 1.8 to 15.2; p = 0.004). Conclusion: Abnormal HRR after 6MWT predicts mortality in IPF patients. Research is needed to confirm these findings prospectively and to examine the mechanisms of HRR in IPF patients. PMID:19395579

  19. 3D Cloud Field Prediction using A-Train Data and Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Validation of cloud process parameterizations used in global climate models (GCMs) would greatly benefit from observed 3D cloud fields at the size comparable to that of a GCM grid cell. For the highest resolution simulations, surface grid cells are on the order of 100 km by 100 km. CloudSat/CALIPSO data provides 1 km width of detailed vertical cloud fraction profile (CFP) and liquid and ice water content (LWC/IWC). This work utilizes four machine learning algorithms to create nonlinear regressions of CFP, LWC, and IWC data using radiances, surface type and location of measurement as predictors and applies the regression equations to off-track locations generating 3D cloud fields for 100 km by 100 km domains. The CERES-CloudSat-CALIPSO-MODIS (C3M) merged data set for February 2007 is used. Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks, Gaussian Processes and Decision Trees are trained on 1000 km of continuous C3M data. Accuracy is computed using existing vertical profiles that are excluded from the training data and occur within 100 km of the training data. Accuracy of the four algorithms is compared. Average accuracy for one day of predicted data is 86% for the most successful algorithm. The methodology for training the algorithms, determining valid prediction regions and applying the equations off-track is discussed. Predicted 3D cloud fields are provided as inputs to the Ed4 NASA LaRC Fu-Liou radiative transfer code and resulting TOA radiances compared to observed CERES/MODIS radiances. Differences in computed radiances using predicted profiles and observed radiances are compared.

  20. Field effect of P fertilization on N$_{2}$ fixation rate of Ulex europaeus

    OpenAIRE

    Cavard , Xavier; Augusto , Laurent; Saur , Etienne; Trichet , Pierre

    2007-01-01

    European gorse (Ulex europaeus L.) N-2 fixation rate (% Ndfa) was studied in a maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) oligotrophic forest. Fertilization field trials were carried out on 5 sites with various inputs of phosphorus (0-240 kg P2O5. ha(-1)). Seven to ten years after pine planting, gorse were sampled to evaluate the effect of P fertilization on gorse % Ndfa, determined using the N-15 natural abundance method. One of the prerequisites of this method is the existence of a significant dif...

  1. Interest level in 2-year-olds with autism spectrum disorder predicts rate of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition

    OpenAIRE

    Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

    2014-01-01

    Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2 years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill acquisition to the age of 3 years. A total of 70 toddlers with autism spectrum disorder, mean age of 21.9 months, were scored using Interest Level Sco...

  2. The Prediction of Exchange Rates with the Use of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Spiesová

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currency market is recently the largest world market during the existence of which there have been many theories regarding the prediction of the development of exchange rates based on macroeconomic, microeconomic, statistic and other models. The aim of this paper is to identify the adequate model for the prediction of non-stationary time series of exchange rates and then use this model to predict the trend of the development of European currencies against Euro. The uniqueness of this paper is in the fact that there are many expert studies dealing with the prediction of the currency pairs rates of the American dollar with other currency but there is only a limited number of scientific studies concerned with the long-term prediction of European currencies with the help of the integrated ARMA models even though the development of exchange rates has a crucial impact on all levels of economy and its prediction is an important indicator for individual countries, banks, companies and businessmen as well as for investors. The results of this study confirm that to predict the conditional variance and then to estimate the future values of exchange rates, it is adequate to use the ARIMA (1,1,1 model without constant, or ARIMA [(1,7,1,(1,7] model, where in the long-term, the square root of the conditional variance inclines towards stable value.

  3. Heart rate during conflicts predicts post-conflict stress-related behavior in greylag geese.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia A F Wascher

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Social stressors are known to be among the most potent stressors in group-living animals. This is not only manifested in individual physiology (heart rate, glucocorticoids, but also in how individuals behave directly after a conflict. Certain 'stress-related behaviors' such as autopreening, body shaking, scratching and vigilance have been suggested to indicate an individual's emotional state. Such behaviors may also alleviate stress, but the behavioral context and physiological basis of those behaviors is still poorly understood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We recorded beat-to-beat heart rates (HR of 22 greylag geese in response to agonistic encounters using fully implanted sensor-transmitter packages. Additionally, for 143 major events we analyzed the behavior shown by our focal animals in the first two minutes after an interaction. Our results show that the HR during encounters and characteristics of the interaction predicted the frequency and duration of behaviors shown after a conflict. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To our knowledge this is the first study to quantify the physiological and behavioral responses to single agonistic encounters and to link this to post conflict behavior. Our results demonstrate that 'stress-related behaviors' are flexibly modulated by the characteristics of the preceding aggressive interaction and reflect the individual's emotional strain, which is linked to autonomic arousal. We found no support for the stress-alleviating hypothesis, but we propose that stress-related behaviors may play a role in communication with other group members, particularly with pair-partners.

  4. Can illness perceptions predict lower heart rate variability following acute myocardial infarction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Princip

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Decreased heart rate variability (HRV has been reported to be a predictor of mortality after myocardial infarction (MI. Patients’ beliefs and perceptions concerning their illness may play a role in decreased HRV. This study investigated if illness perceptions predict HRV at three months following acute MI. Methods: 130 patients referred to a tertiary cardiology centre, were examined within 48 hours and three months following acute MI. At admission, patients’ cognitive representations of their MI were assessed using the German version of the self-rated Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (Brief IPQ. At admission and after three months (follow-up, frequency and time domain measures of HRV were obtained from 5-min electrocardiogram (ECG recordings during stable supine resting. Results: Linear hierarchical regression showed that the Brief IPQ dimensions timeline (β coefficient = -0.29; p = .044, personal control (β = 0.47; p = .008 and illness understanding (β = 0.43; p = .014 were significant predictors of HRV, adjusted for age, gender, baseline HRV, diabetes, beta-blockers, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF, attendance of cardiac rehabilitation, and depressive symptoms. Conclusions: As patients’ negative perceptions of their illness are associated with lower HRV following acute MI, a brief illness perception questionnaire may help to identify patients who might benefit from a specific illness perceptions intervention.

  5. The system for automatic dose rate measurements by mobile groups in field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drabova, D.; Filgas, R.; Cespirova, I.; Ejemova, M.

    1998-01-01

    The comparison of characteristics between a pressurized ionization chamber, plastic scintillator and proportional counter is given. Based on requirements and comparison of properties of various probes, the system for automatic dose rate measurement and integration of geographic co-ordinates in field was designed and tested.The system consists of proportional counter. This is so-called intelligent probe can be easily connected to a personal computer. The probe measures in the energy range 30 keV - 1.3 MeV with reasonable energy and angular response, it can measure the dose rate in the range 50 nSv/h - 1 Sv/h with the typical efficiency 9.5 imp/s/μSv/h. The probe is fixed in the holder placed on the front mask of a car. For the simultaneous determination of geographical co-ordinates the personal GPS navigator Garmin 95 is used. Both devices are controlled by a notebook via two serial ports. The second serial port that is not quite common in notebook can be easily realised by a PCMCIA card. The notebook is used in the field by a mobile group can be transmitted to the assessment centre by the cellular GSM phone. The system Nokia 2110 connected to notebook by PCMCIA card is used. The whole system is powered up from the car battery. The system is controlled by specially developed software. The software was developed in the FoxPro 2.5 environment and works under MS-DOS 6.22. It has no problems to work in Windows 95 DOS window. The results of dose rate measurements obtained during route monitoring are stored in files. They can be displayed on a graphic screen, presenting the geographical distribution of the dose rate values colour coded on a map and the time sequence of the measured data. (authors)

  6. Basal metabolic rate in relation to body composition and daily energy expenditure in the field vole, Microtus agrestis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meerlo, P; Bolle, L; Visser, GH; Masman, D; Daan, S

    1997-01-01

    Basal metabolic rate in the field vole (Microtus agrestis) was studied in relation to body composition and daily energy expenditure in the field Daily energy expenditure was measured by means of doubly labelled water ((D2O)-O-18). In the same individuals, basal metabolic rate was subsequently

  7. The Meaning and Predictive Value of Self-rated Mental Health among Persons with a Mental Health Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAlpine, Donna D; McCreedy, Ellen; Alang, Sirry

    2018-06-01

    Self-rated health is a valid measure of health that predicts quality of life, morbidity, and mortality. Its predictive value reflects a conceptualization of health that goes beyond a traditional medical model. However, less is known about self-rated mental health (SRMH). Using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey ( N = 2,547), we examine how rating your mental health as good-despite meeting criteria for a mental health problem-predicts outcomes. We found that 62% of people with a mental health problem rated their mental health positively. Persons who rated their mental health as good (compared to poor) had 30% lower odds of having a mental health problem at follow-up. Even without treatment, persons with a mental health problem did better if they perceived their mental health positively. SRMH might comprise information beyond the experience of symptoms. Understanding the unobserved information individuals incorporate into SRMH will help us improve screening and treatment interventions.

  8. Comparison of Echo 7 field line length measurements to magnetospheric model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemzek, R.J.; Winckler, J.R.; Malcolm, P.R.

    1992-01-01

    The Echo 7 sounding rocket experiment injected electron beams on central tail field lines near L = 6.5. Numerous injections returned to the payload as conjugate echoes after mirroring in the southern hemisphere. The authors compare field line lengths calculated from measured conjugate echo bounce times and energies to predictions made by integrating electron trajectories through various magnetospheric models: the Olson-Pfitzer Quiet and Dynamic models and the Tsyganenko-Usmanov model. Although Kp at launch was 3-, quiet time magnetic models est fit the echo measurements. Geosynchronous satellite magnetometer measurements near the Echo 7 field lies during the flight were best modeled by the Olson-Pfitzer Dynamic Model and the Tsyganenko-Usmanov model for Kp = 3. The discrepancy between the models that best fit the Echo 7 data and those that fit the satellite data was most likely due to uncertainties in the small-scale configuration of the magnetospheric models. The field line length measured by the conjugate echoes showed some temporal variation in the magnetic field, also indicated by the satellite magnetometers. This demonstrates the utility an Echo-style experiment could have in substorm studies

  9. Hybridization rates between lettuce (Lactuca sativa) and its wild relative (L. serriola) under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Andrea, Luigi; Felber, François; Guadagnuolo, Roberto

    2008-01-01

    Hybridization and introgression between crops and wild relatives may have important evolutionary and ecological consequences such as gene swamping or increased invasiveness. In the present study, we investigated hybridization under field conditions between crop lettuce (Lactuca sativa) and its wild relative prickly lettuce (L. serriola), two cross-compatible, predominantly autogamous and insect pollinated species. In 2003 and 2004, we estimated the rates of hybridization between L. sativa and L. serriola in close-to-reality field experiments carried out in two locations of Northern Switzerland. Seeds set by the experimental wild plants were collected and sown (44 352 in 2003 and 252 345 in 2004). Progeny was screened morphologically for detecting natural hybrids. Prior to the experiment, specific RAPD markers were used to confirm that morphological characters were reliable for hybrid identification. Hybridization occurred up to the maximal distance tested (40 m), and hybridization rates varied between 0 to 26%, decreasing with distance. More than 80% of the wild plants produced at least one hybrid (incidence of hybridization, IH) at 0 m and 1 m. It equaled 4 to 5% at 40 m. In sympatric crop-wild populations, cross-pollination between cultivated lettuce and its wild relative has to be seen as the rule rather than the exception for short distances.

  10. High outcrossing rates in fields with mixed sorghum landraces: how are landraces maintained?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnaud, A; Trigueros, G; McKey, D; Joly, H I

    2008-11-01

    The effect of mating system on genetic diversity is a major theme in plant evolutionary genetics, because gene flow plays a large role in structuring the genetic variability within and among populations. Understanding crop mating systems and their consequences for gene flow can aid in managing agricultural systems and conserving genetic resources. We evaluated the extent of pollen flow, its links with farming practices and its impact on the dynamics of diversity of sorghum in fields of Duupa farmers in Cameroon. Duupa farmers grow numerous landraces mixed in a field, a practice that favours extensive pollen flow. We estimated parameters of the mating system of five landraces representative of the genetic diversity cultivated in the study site, using a direct method based on progeny array. The multilocus outcrossing rate calculated from all progenies was 18% and ranged from 0 to 73% among progenies. Outcrossing rates varied greatly among landraces, from 5 to 40%. Our results also showed that individual maternal plants were usually pollinated by more than eight pollen donors, except for one landrace (three pollen donors). Although the biological traits of sorghum (inflorescence morphology, floral traits, phenology) and the spatial planting practices of Duupa farmers led to extensive pollen flow among landraces, selection exerted by farmers appears to be a key parameter affecting the fate of new genetic combinations from outcrossing events. Because both natural and human-mediated factors shape evolution in crop populations, understanding evolutionary processes and designing in situ conservation measures requires that biologists and anthropologists work together.

  11. A cost prediction model for machine operation in multi-field production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Sopegno

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Capacity planning in agricultural field operations needs to give consideration to the operational system design which involves the selection and dimensioning of production components, such as machinery and equipment. Capacity planning models currently onstream are generally based on average norm data and not on specific farm data which may vary from year to year. In this paper a model is presented for predicting the cost of in-field and transport operations for multiple-field and multiple-crop production systems. A case study from a real production system is presented in order to demonstrate the model’s functionalities and its sensitivity to parameters known to be somewhat imprecise. It was shown that the proposed model can provide operation cost predictions for complex cropping systems where labor and machinery are shared between the various operations which can be individually formulated for each individual crop. By so doing, the model can be used as a decision support system at the strategic level of management of agricultural production systems and specifically for the mid-term design process of systems in terms of labor/machinery and crop selection conforming to the criterion of profitability.

  12. Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanikar, Prasenjit

    Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain-rate

  13. The useful field of view assessment predicts simulated commercial motor vehicle driving safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, Benjamin; Heaton, Karen; Vance, David E; Stavrinos, Despina

    2016-10-02

    The Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment, a measure of visual speed of processing, has been shown to be a predictive measure of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement in an older adult population, but it remains unknown whether UFOV predicts commercial motor vehicle (CMV) driving safety during secondary task engagement. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the UFOV assessment predicts simulated MVCs in long-haul CMV drivers. Fifty licensed CMV drivers (Mage = 39.80, SD = 8.38, 98% male, 56% Caucasian) were administered the 3-subtest version of the UFOV assessment, where lower scores measured in milliseconds indicated better performance. CMV drivers completed 4 simulated drives, each spanning approximately a 22.50-mile distance. Four secondary tasks were presented to participants in a counterbalanced order during the drives: (a) no secondary task, (b) cell phone conversation, (c) text messaging interaction, and (d) e-mailing interaction with an on-board dispatch device. The selective attention subtest significantly predicted simulated MVCs regardless of secondary task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC in the simulated drive. The e-mail interaction secondary task significantly predicted simulated MVCs with a 4.14 times greater risk of an MVC compared to the no secondary task condition. Subtest 3, a measure of visual speed of processing, significantly predicted MVCs in the email interaction task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC during the email interaction task. The UFOV subtest 3 may be a promising measure to identify CMV drivers who may be at risk for MVCs or in need of cognitive training aimed at improving speed of processing. Subtest 3 may also identify CMV drivers who are particularly at risk when engaged in secondary tasks while driving.

  14. Comparison of dechlorination rates for field DNAPL vs synthetic samples: effect of sample matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Carroll, D. M.; Sakulchaicharoen, N.; Herrera, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Nanometals have received significant attention in recent years due to their ability to rapidly destroy numerous priority source zone contaminants in controlled laboratory studies. This has led to great optimism surrounding nanometal particle injection for insitu remediation. Reported dechlorination rates vary widely among different investigators. These differences have been ascribed to differences in the iron types (granular, micro, or nano-sized iron), matrix solution chemistry and the morphology of the nZVI surface. Among these, the effects of solution chemistry on rates of reductive dechlorination of various chlorinated compounds have been investigated in several short-term laboratory studies. Variables investigated include the effect of anions or groundwater solutes such as SO4-2, Cl-, NO3-, pH, natural organic matters (NOM), surfactant, and humic acid on dechlorination reaction of various chlorinated compounds such as TCE, carbon tetrachloride (CT), and chloroform (CF). These studies have normally centered on the assessment of nZVI reactivity toward dechlorination of an isolated individual contaminant spiked into a ground water sample under ideal conditions, with limited work conducted using real field samples. In this work, the DNAPL used for the dechlorination study was obtained from a contaminatied site. This approach was selected to adequately simulate a condition where the nZVI suspension was in direct contact with DNAPL and to isolate the dechlorination activity shown by the nZVI from the groundwater matrix effects. An ideal system "synthetic DNAPL" composed of a mixture of chlorinated compounds mimicking the composition of the actual DNAPL was also dechlorinated to evaluate the DNAPL "matrix effect" on NZVI dechlorination activity. This approach allowed us to evaluate the effect of the presence of different types of organic compounds (volatile fatty acids and humic acids) found in the actual DNAPL on nZVI dechlorination activity. This presentation will

  15. Nitrogen Fertilizer Rate and Crop Management Effects on Nitrate Leaching from an Agricultural Field in Central Pennsylvania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard H. Fox

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Eighteen pan lysimeters were installed at a depth of 1.2 m in a Hagerstown silt loam soil in a corn field in central Pennsylvania in 1988. In 1995, wick lysimeters were also installed at 1.2 m depth in the same access pits. Treatments have included N fertilizer rates, use of manure, crop rotation (continuous corn, corn-soybean, alfalfa-corn, and tillage (chisel plow-disk, no-till. The leachate data were used to evaluate a number of nitrate leaching models. Some of the highlights of the 11 years of results include the following: 1 growing corn without organic N inputs at the economic optimum N rate (EON resulted in NO3–-N concentrations of 15 to 20 mg l-1 in leachate; 2 use of manure or previous alfalfa crop as partial source of N also resulted in 15 to 20 mg l-1 of NO3–-N in leachate below corn at EON; 3 NO3–-N concentration in leachate below alfalfa was approximately 4 mg l-1; 4 NO3–-N concentration in leachate below soybeans following corn was influenced by fertilizer N rate applied to corn; 5 the mass of NO3–-N leached below corn at the EON rate averaged 90 kg N ha-1 (approx. 40% of fertilizer N applied at EON; 6 wick lysimeters collected approximately 100% of leachate vs. 40–50% collected by pan lysimeters. Coefficients of variation of the collected leachate volumes for both lysimeter types were similar; 7 tillage did not markedly affect nitrate leaching losses; 8 tested leaching models could accurately predict leachate volumes and could be calibrated to match nitrate leaching losses in calibration years, but only one model (SOILN accurately predicted nitrate leaching losses in the majority of validation treatment years. Apparent problems with tested models: there was difficulty estimating sizes of organic N pools and their transformation rates, and the models either did not include a macropore flow component or did not handle macropore flow well.

  16. Stress Field Variation after the 2001 Skyros Earthquake, Greece, Derived from Seismicity Rate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leptokaropoulos, K.; Papadimitriou, E.; Orlecka-Sikora, B.; Karakostas, V.

    2012-04-01

    The spatial variation of the stress field (ΔCFF) after the 2001 strong (Mw=6.4) Skyros earthquake in North Aegean Sea, Greece, is investigated in association with the changes of earthquake production rates. A detailed slip model is considered in which the causative fault is consisted of several sub-faults with different coseismic slip onto each one of them. First the spatial distribution of aftershock productivity is compared with the static stress changes due to the coseismic slip. Calculations of ΔCFF are performed at different depths inside the seismogenic layer, defined from the vertical distribution of the aftershocks. Seismicity rates of the smaller magnitude events with M≥Mc for different time increments before and after the main shock are then derived from the application of a Probability Density Function (PDF). These rates are computed by spatially smoothing the seismicity and for this purpose a normal grid of rectangular cells is superimposed onto the area and the PDF determines seismicity rate values at the center of each cell. The differences between the earthquake occurrence rates before and after the main shock are compared and used as input data in a stress inversion algorithm based upon the Rate/State dependent friction concept in order to provide an independent estimation of stress changes. This model incorporates the physical properties of the fault zones (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, effective friction coefficient) with a probabilistic estimation of the spatial distribution of seismicity rates, derived from the application of the PDF. The stress patterns derived from the previously mentioned approaches are compared and the quantitative correlation between the respective results is accomplished by the evaluation of Pearson linear correlation coefficient and its confidence intervals to quantify their significance. Different assumptions and combinations of the physical and statistical parameters are tested for

  17. Reservoir rock permeability prediction using support vector regression in an Iranian oil field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saffarzadeh, Sadegh; Shadizadeh, Seyed Reza

    2012-01-01

    Reservoir permeability is a critical parameter for the evaluation of hydrocarbon reservoirs. It is often measured in the laboratory from reservoir core samples or evaluated from well test data. The prediction of reservoir rock permeability utilizing well log data is important because the core analysis and well test data are usually only available from a few wells in a field and have high coring and laboratory analysis costs. Since most wells are logged, the common practice is to estimate permeability from logs using correlation equations developed from limited core data; however, these correlation formulae are not universally applicable. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) have been proposed as a new intelligence technique for both regression and classification tasks. The theory has a strong mathematical foundation for dependence estimation and predictive learning from finite data sets. The ultimate test for any technique that bears the claim of permeability prediction from well log data is the accurate and verifiable prediction of permeability for wells where only the well log data are available. The main goal of this paper is to develop the SVM method to obtain reservoir rock permeability based on well log data. (paper)

  18. Heart rate variability affected by radiofrequency electromagnetic field in adolescent students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misek, Jakub; Belyaev, Igor; Jakusova, Viera; Tonhajzerova, Ingrid; Barabas, Jan; Jakus, Jan

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the possible effect of radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMF) on the autonomic nervous system (ANS). The effect of RF EMF on ANS activity was studied by measuring heart rate variability (HRV) during ortho-clinostatic test (i.e., transition from lying to standing and back) in 46 healthy grammar school students. A 1788 MHz pulsed wave with intensity of 54 ± 1.6 V/m was applied intermittently for 18 min in each trial. Maximum specific absorption rate (SAR 10 ) value was determined to 0.405 W/kg. We also measured the respiration rate and estimated a subjective perception of EMF exposure. RF exposure decreased heart rate of subjects in a lying position, while no such change was seen in standing students. After exposure while lying, a rise in high frequency band of HRV and root Mean Square of the Successive Differences was observed, which indicated an increase in parasympathetic nerve activity. Tympanic temperature and skin temperature were measured showing no heating under RF exposure. No RF effect on respiration rate was observed. None of the tested subjects were able to distinguish real exposure from sham exposure when queried at the end of the trial. In conclusion, short-term RF EMF exposure of students in a lying position during the ortho-clinostatic test affected ANS with significant increase in parasympathetic nerve activity compared to sham exposed group. Bioelectromagnetics. 39:277-288, 2018. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Positive predictive value of device-detected atrial high-rate episodes at different rates and durations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaufman, Elizabeth S; Israel, Carsten W; Nair, Girish M

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Pacemakers can automatically identify and catalog atrial high-rate episodes (AHREs). While most AHREs represent true atrial tachyarrhythmia/atrial fibrillation (AT/AF), a review of stored electrograms suggests that a substantial proportion do not. As AHREs may lead to the initiation o...

  20. Field-scale predictions of soil contaminant sorption using visible–near infrared spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paradelo Pérez, Marcos; Hermansen, Cecilie; Knadel, Maria

    2016-01-01

    . By means of the vis–NIR spectra we were able to predict phenanthrene (R2 = 0.95, RMSECV = 31 L kg−1) and glyphosate (R2 = 0.79, RMSECV = 45 L kg−1) sorption capacities. A model using vis–NIR spectra plus pH values improved the prediction of glyphosate sorption capacity (R2 = 0.88, RMSECV = 34 L kg−1......) and glyphosate (sorbed on mineral fractions). Forty-five bulk soil samples were collected from an agricultural field in Estrup, Denmark, in a 15 m × 15 m grid. Samples were air-dried, sieved to 2 mm and analysed for selected soil properties. Sorption coefficients were obtained from a batch equilibration...

  1. Prediction of fluctuating pressure environments associated with plume-induced separated flow fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plotkin, K. J.

    1973-01-01

    The separated flow environment induced by underexpanded rocket plumes during boost phase of rocket vehicles has been investigated. A simple semi-empirical model for predicting the extent of separation was developed. This model offers considerable computational economy as compared to other schemes reported in the literature, and has been shown to be in good agreement with limited flight data. The unsteady pressure field in plume-induced separated regions was investigated. It was found that fluctuations differed from those for a rigid flare only at low frequencies. The major difference between plume-induced separation and flare-induced separation was shown to be an increase in shock oscillation distance for the plume case. The prediction schemes were applied to PRR shuttle launch configuration. It was found that fluctuating pressures from plume-induced separation are not as severe as for other fluctuating environments at the critical flight condition of maximum dynamic pressure.

  2. Predicting Soil Organic Carbon at Field Scale Using a National Soil Spectral Library

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peng, Yi; Knadel, Maria; Gislum, René

    2013-01-01

    and the spectral library, 2718 samples) and (iii) three sub-sets selected from the spectral library. In an attempt to improve prediction accuracy, sub-sets of the soil spectral library were made using three different sample selection methods: those geographically closest (84 samples), those with the same landscape......Visible and near infrared diffuse reflectance (vis-NIR) spectroscopy is a low-cost, efficient and accurate soil analysis technique and is thus becoming increasingly popular. Soil spectral libraries are commonly constructed as the basis for estimating soil texture and properties. In this study......, partial least squares regression was used to develop models to predict the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of 35 soil samples from one field using (i) the Danish soil spectral library (2688 samples), (ii) a spiked spectral library (a combination of 30 samples selected from the local area...

  3. Evaluation of specific absorption rate as a dosimetric quantity for electromagnetic fields bioeffects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitris J Panagopoulos

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To evaluate SAR as a dosimetric quantity for EMF bioeffects, and identify ways for increasing the precision in EMF dosimetry and bioactivity assessment. METHODS: We discuss the interaction of man-made electromagnetic waves with biological matter and calculate the energy transferred to a single free ion within a cell. We analyze the physics and biology of SAR and evaluate the methods of its estimation. We discuss the experimentally observed non-linearity between electromagnetic exposure and biological effect. RESULTS: WE FIND THAT: a The energy absorbed by living matter during exposure to environmentally accounted EMFs is normally well below the thermal level. b All existing methods for SAR estimation, especially those based upon tissue conductivity and internal electric field, have serious deficiencies. c The only method to estimate SAR without large error is by measuring temperature increases within biological tissue, which normally are negligible for environmental EMF intensities, and thus cannot be measured. CONCLUSIONS: SAR actually refers to thermal effects, while the vast majority of the recorded biological effects from man-made non-ionizing environmental radiation are non-thermal. Even if SAR could be accurately estimated for a whole tissue, organ, or body, the biological/health effect is determined by tiny amounts of energy/power absorbed by specific biomolecules, which cannot be calculated. Moreover, it depends upon field parameters not taken into account in SAR calculation. Thus, SAR should not be used as the primary dosimetric quantity, but used only as a complementary measure, always reporting the estimating method and the corresponding error. Radiation/field intensity along with additional physical parameters (such as frequency, modulation etc which can be directly and in any case more accurately measured on the surface of biological tissues, should constitute the primary measure for EMF exposures, in spite of similar

  4. Evaluation of specific absorption rate as a dosimetric quantity for electromagnetic fields bioeffects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagopoulos, Dimitris J; Johansson, Olle; Carlo, George L

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate SAR as a dosimetric quantity for EMF bioeffects, and identify ways for increasing the precision in EMF dosimetry and bioactivity assessment. We discuss the interaction of man-made electromagnetic waves with biological matter and calculate the energy transferred to a single free ion within a cell. We analyze the physics and biology of SAR and evaluate the methods of its estimation. We discuss the experimentally observed non-linearity between electromagnetic exposure and biological effect. WE FIND THAT: a) The energy absorbed by living matter during exposure to environmentally accounted EMFs is normally well below the thermal level. b) All existing methods for SAR estimation, especially those based upon tissue conductivity and internal electric field, have serious deficiencies. c) The only method to estimate SAR without large error is by measuring temperature increases within biological tissue, which normally are negligible for environmental EMF intensities, and thus cannot be measured. SAR actually refers to thermal effects, while the vast majority of the recorded biological effects from man-made non-ionizing environmental radiation are non-thermal. Even if SAR could be accurately estimated for a whole tissue, organ, or body, the biological/health effect is determined by tiny amounts of energy/power absorbed by specific biomolecules, which cannot be calculated. Moreover, it depends upon field parameters not taken into account in SAR calculation. Thus, SAR should not be used as the primary dosimetric quantity, but used only as a complementary measure, always reporting the estimating method and the corresponding error. Radiation/field intensity along with additional physical parameters (such as frequency, modulation etc) which can be directly and in any case more accurately measured on the surface of biological tissues, should constitute the primary measure for EMF exposures, in spite of similar uncertainty to predict the biological effect due to non-linearity.

  5. Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

    2014-06-01

    This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

  6. Sensitivities of Near-field Tsunami Forecasts to Megathrust Deformation Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, S.; Masterlark, T.

    2018-02-01

    This study reveals how modeling configurations of forward and inverse analyses of coseismic deformation data influence the estimations of seismic and tsunami sources. We illuminate how the predictions of near-field tsunami change when (1) a heterogeneous (HET) distribution of crustal material is introduced to the elastic dislocation model, and (2) the near-trench rupture is either encouraged or suppressed to invert spontaneous coseismic displacements. Hypothetical scenarios of megathrust earthquakes are studied with synthetic Global Positioning System displacements in Cascadia. Finite-element models are designed to mimic the subsurface heterogeneity across the curved subduction margin. The HET lithospheric domain modifies the seafloor displacement field and alters tsunami predictions from those of a homogeneous (HOM) crust. Uncertainties persist as the inverse analyses of geodetic data produce nonrealistic slip artifacts over the HOM domain, which propagates into the prediction errors of subsequent tsunami arrival and amplitudes. A stochastic analysis further shows that the uncertainties of seismic tomography models do not degrade the solution accuracy of HET over HOM. Whether the source ruptures near the trench also controls the details of the seafloor disturbance. Deeper subsurface slips induce more seafloor uplift near the coast and cause an earlier arrival of tsunami waves than surface-slipping events. We suggest using the solutions of zero-updip-slip and zero-updip-slip-gradient rupture boundary conditions as end-members to constrain the tsunami behavior for forecasting purposes. The findings are important for the near-field tsunami warning that primarily relies on the near-real-time geodetic or seismic data for source calibration before megawaves hit the nearest shore upon tsunamigenic events.

  7. A laboratory-scale comparison of rate of spread model predictions using chaparral fuel beds – preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.R. Weise; E. Koo; X. Zhou; S. Mahalingam

    2011-01-01

    Observed fire spread rates from 240 laboratory fires in horizontally-oriented single-species live fuel beds were compared to predictions from various implementations and modifications of the Rothermel rate of spread model and a physical fire spread model developed by Pagni and Koo. Packing ratio of the laboratory fuel beds was generally greater than that observed in...

  8. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V.

    2014-01-01

    A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

  9. On the predictivity of the non-renormalizable quantum field theories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pittau, Roberto [CERN, PH-TH, Geneva (Switzerland)

    2015-02-01

    Following a Four Dimensional Renormalization approach to ultraviolet divergences (FDR), we extend the concept of predictivity to non-renormalizable quantum field theories at arbitrarily large perturbative orders. The idea of topological renormalization is introduced, which keeps a finite value for the parameters of the theory by trading the usual order-by-order renormalization procedure for an order-by-order redefinition of the perturbative vacuum. One additional measurement is then sufficient to systematically compute quantum corrections at any loop order, with no need of absorbing ultraviolet infinities in the Lagrangian. (copyright 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  10. Maximal locality and predictive power in higher-dimensional, compactified field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubo, Jisuke; Nunami, Masanori

    2004-01-01

    To realize maximal locality in a trivial field theory, we maximize the ultraviolet cutoff of the theory by fine tuning the infrared values of the parameters. This optimization procedure is applied to the scalar theory in D + 1 dimensional (D ≥ 4) with one extra dimension compactified on a circle of radius R. The optimized, infrared values of the parameters are then compared with the corresponding ones of the uncompactified theory in D dimensions, which is assumed to be the low-energy effective theory. We find that these values approximately agree with each other as long as R -1 > approx sM is satisfied, where s ≅ 10, 50, 50, 100 for D = 4,5,6,7, and M is a typical scale of the D-dimensional theory. This result supports the previously made claim that the maximization of the ultraviolet cutoff in a nonrenormalizable field theory can give the theory more predictive power. (author)

  11. Sediment sorting along tidal sand waves: A comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Oyen, Tomas; Blondeaux, Paolo; Van den Eynde, Dries

    2013-07-01

    A site-by-site comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions of sediment sorting patterns along tidal sand waves is performed for ten locations in the North Sea. At each site, the observed grain size distribution along the bottom topography and the geometry of the bed forms is described in detail and the procedure used to obtain the model parameters is summarized. The model appears to accurately describe the wavelength of the observed sand waves for the majority of the locations; still providing a reliable estimate for the other sites. In addition, it is found that for seven out of the ten locations, the qualitative sorting process provided by the model agrees with the observed grain size distribution. A discussion of the site-by-site comparison is provided which, taking into account uncertainties in the field data, indicates that the model grasps the major part of the key processes controlling the phenomenon.

  12. Multi-target QSPR modeling for simultaneous prediction of multiple gas-phase kinetic rate constants of diverse chemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

    2018-03-01

    The reactions of molecular ozone (O3), hydroxyl (•OH) and nitrate (NO3) radicals are among the major pathways of removal of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmospheric environment. The gas-phase kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) are thus, important in assessing the ultimate fate and exposure risk of atmospheric VOCs. Experimental data for rate constants are not available for many emerging VOCs and the computational methods reported so far address a single target modeling only. In this study, we have developed a multi-target (mt) QSPR model for simultaneous prediction of multiple kinetic rate constants (kO3, kOH, kNO3) of diverse organic chemicals considering an experimental data set of VOCs for which values of all the three rate constants are available. The mt-QSPR model identified and used five descriptors related to the molecular size, degree of saturation and electron density in a molecule, which were mechanistically interpretable. These descriptors successfully predicted three rate constants simultaneously. The model yielded high correlations (R2 = 0.874-0.924) between the experimental and simultaneously predicted endpoint rate constant (kO3, kOH, kNO3) values in test arrays for all the three systems. The model also passed all the stringent statistical validation tests for external predictivity. The proposed multi-target QSPR model can be successfully used for predicting reactivity of new VOCs simultaneously for their exposure risk assessment.

  13. Prediction and comparison of down-link electric field and uplink localised SAR values for realistic indoor wireless planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plets, David; Joseph, Wout; Aerts, Sam; Vanhecke, Kris; Vermeeren, Guenter; Martens, Luc

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, for the first time a heuristic network calculator for both whole-body exposure due to indoor base station antennas or access points (down-link exposure) and localised exposure due to the mobile device (uplink exposure) in indoor wireless networks is presented. As an application, three phone call scenarios are investigated (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) macro-cell, UMTS femto-cell and WiFi voice-over-IP) and compared with respect to the electric-field strength and localised specific absorption rate (SAR) distribution. Prediction models are created and successfully validated with an accuracy of 3 dB. The benefits of the UMTS power control mechanisms are demonstrated. However, dependent on the macro-cell connection quality and on the user's average phone call connection time, also the macro-cell solution might be preferential from an exposure point of view for the considered scenario. (authors)

  14. The role of packaging size on contamination rates during simulated presentation to a sterile field.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony Trier

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to assess the impact of package size on the contact between medical devices and non-sterile surfaces (i.e. the hands of the practitioner and the outside of the package during aseptic presentation to a simulated sterile field. Rationale for this objective stems from the decades-long problem of hospital-acquired infections. This work approaches the problem from a unique perspective, namely packaging size.Randomized complete block design with subsampling.Research study conducted at professional conferences for surgical technologists and nursing professionals.Ninety-seven healthcare providers, primarily surgical technologists and nurses.Participants were gloved and asked to present the contents of six pouches of three different sizes to a simulated sterile field. The exterior of pouches and gloves of participants were coated with a simulated contaminant prior to each opening trial. After presentation to the simulated sterile field, the presence of the contaminant on package contents was recorded as indicative of contact with non-sterile surfaces and analyzed in a binary fashion using a generalized linear mixed model.Recruited subjects were 26-64 years of age (81 females, 16 males, with 2.5-44 years of professional experience. Results indicated a significant main effect of pouch size on contact rate of package contents (P = 0.0108, whereby larger pouches induced greater rates of contact than smaller pouches (estimates±SEM: 14.7±2.9% vs. 6.0±1.7%, respectively.This study utilized novel methodologies which simulate contamination in aseptic presentation. Results of this work indicate that increased contamination rates are associated with larger pouches when compared to smaller pouches. The results add to a growing body of research which investigate packaging's role in serving as a pathway for product contamination during aseptic presentation. Future work should investigate other packaging design factors (e

  15. Metabolic robustness in young roots underpins a predictive model of maize hybrid performance in the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Abreu E Lima, Francisco; Westhues, Matthias; Cuadros-Inostroza, Álvaro; Willmitzer, Lothar; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Nikoloski, Zoran

    2017-04-01

    Heterosis has been extensively exploited for yield gain in maize (Zea mays L.). Here we conducted a comparative metabolomics-based analysis of young roots from in vitro germinating seedlings and from leaves of field-grown plants in a panel of inbred lines from the Dent and Flint heterotic patterns as well as selected F 1 hybrids. We found that metabolite levels in hybrids were more robust than in inbred lines. Using state-of-the-art modeling techniques, the most robust metabolites from roots and leaves explained up to 37 and 44% of the variance in the biomass from plants grown in two distinct field trials. In addition, a correlation-based analysis highlighted the trade-off between defense-related metabolites and hybrid performance. Therefore, our findings demonstrated the potential of metabolic profiles from young maize roots grown under tightly controlled conditions to predict hybrid performance in multiple field trials, thus bridging the greenhouse-field gap. © 2017 The Authors The Plant Journal © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. A modeling approach to predict acoustic nonlinear field generated by a transmitter with an aluminum lens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Tingbo; Liu, Zhenbo; Chen, Tao; Li, Faqi; Zhang, Dong

    2011-09-01

    In this work, the authors propose a modeling approach to compute the nonlinear acoustic field generated by a flat piston transmitter with an attached aluminum lens. In this approach, the geometrical parameters (radius and focal length) of a virtual source are initially determined by Snell's refraction law and then adjusted based on the Rayleigh integral result in the linear case. Then, this virtual source is used with the nonlinear spheroidal beam equation (SBE) model to predict the nonlinear acoustic field in the focal region. To examine the validity of this approach, the calculated nonlinear result is compared with those from the Westervelt and (Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov) KZK equations for a focal intensity of 7 kW/cm(2). Results indicate that this approach could accurately describe the nonlinear acoustic field in the focal region with less computation time. The proposed modeling approach is shown to accurately describe the nonlinear acoustic field in the focal region. Compared with the Westervelt equation, the computation time of this approach is significantly reduced. It might also be applicable for the widely used concave focused transmitter with a large aperture angle.

  17. Review FRB Event Rate Predictions for the Ooty Wide Field Array

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    as a power law with an exponent −α and our analysis spans a range −3 ≤ α ≤ 5. ... by assuming two different energy distribution functions; a Delta function and a Schechter luminosity .... logue beam forming network and we refer to this as the.

  18. Decreased activation and subsyndromal manic symptoms predict lower remission rates in bipolar depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldieraro, Marco Antonio; Walsh, Samantha; Deckersbach, Thilo; Bobo, William V; Gao, Keming; Ketter, Terence A; Shelton, Richard C; Reilly-Harrington, Noreen A; Tohen, Mauricio; Calabrese, Joseph R; Thase, Michael E; Kocsis, James H; Sylvia, Louisa G; Nierenberg, Andrew A

    2017-11-01

    Activation encompasses energy and activity and is a central feature of bipolar disorder. However, the impact of activation on treatment response of bipolar depression requires further exploration. The aims of this study were to assess the association of decreased activation and sustained remission in bipolar depression and test for factors that could affect this association. We assessed participants with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed) bipolar depression ( n = 303) included in a comparative effectiveness study of lithium- and quetiapine-based treatments (the Bipolar CHOICE study). Activation was evaluated using items from the Bipolar Inventory of Symptoms Scale. The selection of these items was based on a dimension of energy and interest symptoms associated with poorer treatment response in major depression. Decreased activation was associated with lower remission rates in the raw analyses and in a logistic regression model adjusted for baseline severity and subsyndromal manic symptoms (odds ratio = 0.899; p = 0.015). The manic features also predicted lower remission (odds ratio = 0.934; p bipolar depression. Patients with these features may require specific treatment approaches, but new studies are necessary to identify treatments that could improve outcomes in this population.

  19. Emotionally Excited Eyeblink-Rate Variability Predicts an Experience of Transportation into the Narrative World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryota eNomura

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Collective spectator communications such as oral presentations, movies, and storytelling performances are ubiquitous in human culture. This study investigated the effects of past viewing experiences and differences in expressive performance on an audience’s transportive experience into a created world of a storytelling performance. In the experiment, 60 participants (mean age = 34.12 yrs., SD = 13.18 yrs., range 18–63 yrs. were assigned to watch one of two videotaped performances that were played (1 in an orthodox way for frequent viewers and (2 in a modified way aimed at easier comprehension for first-time viewers. Eyeblink synchronization among participants was quantified by employing distance-based measurements of spike trains, Dspike and Dinterval (Victor & Purpura, 1997. The results indicated that even non-familiar participants’ eyeblinks were synchronized as the story progressed and that the effect of the viewing experience on transportation was weak. Rather, the results of a multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the degrees of transportation could be predicted by a retrospectively reported humor experience and higher real-time variability (i.e., logarithmic transformed standard deviation of inter blink intervals during a performance viewing. The results are discussed from the viewpoint in which the extent of eyeblink synchronization and eyeblink-rate variability acts as an index of the inner experience of audience members.

  20. Heart rate variability in prediction of individual adaptation to endurance training in recreational endurance runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesterinen, V; Häkkinen, K; Hynynen, E; Mikkola, J; Hokka, L; Nummela, A

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether nocturnal heart rate variability (HRV) can be used to predict changes in endurance performance during 28 weeks of endurance training. The training was divided into 14 weeks of basic training (BTP) and 14 weeks of intensive training periods (ITP). Endurance performance characteristics, nocturnal HRV, and serum hormone concentrations were measured before and after both training periods in 28 recreational endurance runners. During the study peak treadmill running speed (Vpeak ) improved by 7.5 ± 4.5%. No changes were observed in HRV indices after BTP, but after ITP, these indices increased significantly (HFP: 1.9%, P=0.026; TP: 1.7%, P=0.007). Significant correlations were observed between the change of Vpeak and HRV indices (TP: r=0.75, PHRV among recreational endurance runners, it seems that moderate- and high-intensity training are needed. This study showed that recreational endurance runners with a high HRV at baseline improved their endurance running performance after ITP more than runners with low baseline HRV. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  1. Metamemory ratings predict long-term changes in reactivated episodic memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amnon eYacoby

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reactivation of long-term memory can render the memory item temporarily labile, offering an opportunity to modify it via behavioral or pharmacological intervention. Declarative memory reactivation is accompanied by a metamemory ability to subjectively assess the knowledge available concerning the target item (Feeling of knowing, FOK. We set out to examine whether FOK can predict the extent of change of long-term episodic memories by post-retrieval manipulations. To this end, participants watched a short movie and immediately thereafter tested on their memory for it. A day later, they were reminded of that movie, and either immediately or one day later, were presented with a second movie. The reminder phase consisted of memory cues to which participants were asked to judge their FOK regarding the original movie. The memory performance of participants to whom new information was presented immediately after reactivating the original episode corresponded to the degree of FOK ratings upon reactivation such that the lower their FOK, the less their memory declined. In contrast, no relation was found between FOK and memory strength for those who learned new information one day after the reminder phase. Our findings suggest that the subjective accessibility of reactivated memories may determine the extent to which new information might modify those memories.

  2. Best-fitting prediction equations for basal metabolic rate: informing obesity interventions in diverse populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabounchi, N S; Rahmandad, H; Ammerman, A

    2013-10-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) represents the largest component of total energy expenditure and is a major contributor to energy balance. Therefore, accurately estimating BMR is critical for developing rigorous obesity prevention and control strategies. Over the past several decades, numerous BMR formulas have been developed targeted to different population groups. A comprehensive literature search revealed 248 BMR estimation equations developed using diverse ranges of age, gender, race, fat-free mass, fat mass, height, waist-to-hip ratio, body mass index and weight. A subset of 47 studies included enough detail to allow for development of meta-regression equations. Utilizing these studies, meta-equations were developed targeted to 20 specific population groups. This review provides a comprehensive summary of available BMR equations and an estimate of their accuracy. An accompanying online BMR prediction tool (available at http://www.sdl.ise.vt.edu/tutorials.html) was developed to automatically estimate BMR based on the most appropriate equation after user-entry of individual age, race, gender and weight.

  3. Higher resting heart rate variability predicts skill in expressing some emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuck, Natalie L; Grant, Rosemary C I; Sollers, John J; Booth, Roger J; Consedine, Nathan S

    2016-12-01

    Vagally mediated heart rate variability (vmHRV) is a measure of cardiac vagal tone, and is widely viewed as a physiological index of the capacity to regulate emotions. However, studies have not directly tested whether vmHRV is associated with the ability to facially express emotions. In extending prior work, the current report tested links between resting vmHRV and the objectively assessed ability to facially express emotions, hypothesizing that higher vmHRV would predict greater expressive skill. Eighty healthy women completed self-reported measures, before attending a laboratory session in which vmHRV and the ability to express six emotions in the face were assessed. A repeated measures analysis of variance revealed a marginal main effect for vmHRV on skill overall; individuals with higher resting vmHRV were only better able to deliberately facially express anger and interest. Findings suggest that differences in resting vmHRV are associated with the objectively assessed ability to facially express some, but not all, emotions, with potential implications for health and well-being. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  4. THE APPLICATION OF RISK BASED BANK RATING ON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Sistiyarini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The increase of banking products and services which is more complex will increase the risk to the banks. Therefore, to anticipate the rise of financial difficulties in a bank, the early warning system. This study aimed to find the influence RBBR (Risk Based Bank Rating ratio’s to predict bankruptcy of conventional Banks in Indonesia. Ratio of RBBR consisted of risk profile, Good Corporate Governance, profitability and capital. Independent variables used were NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CAR. Dependent variable was bank bankruptcy using dummy variable. The population of this study was all of the conventional banks in Indonesia. The data was a secondary data taken form financial report of conventional bank 2011-2015. Technical sampling used was a purposive sampling method with some criteria. The analysis of this study used logistic regression.The result of the study showed that NPL, PDN, LDR, GCG, ROA and NIM, and CARhad no significant influence to bankruptcy of the bank.

  5. Temperature dependences of growth rates and carrying capacities of marine bacteria depart from metabolic theoretical predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan

    2015-09-11

    Using the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) framework, we evaluated over a whole annual cycle the monthly responses to temperature of the growth rates (μ) and carrying capacities (K) of heterotrophic bacterioplankton at a temperate coastal site. We used experimental incubations spanning 6oC with bacterial physiological groups identified by flow cytometry according to membrane integrity (live), nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA) and respiratory activity (CTC+). The temperature dependence of μat the exponential phase of growth was summarized by the activation energy (E), which was variable (-0.52 to 0.72 eV) but followed a seasonal pattern, only reaching the hypothesized value for aerobic heterotrophs of 0.65 eV during the spring bloom for the most active bacterial groups (live, HNA, CTC+). K (i.e. maximum experimental abundance) peaked at 4 × 106 cells mL-1 and generally covaried with μbut, contrary to MTE predictions, it did not decrease consistently with temperature. In the case of live cells, the responses of μand K to temperature were positively correlated and related to seasonal changes in substrate availability, indicating that the responses of bacteria to warming are far from homogeneous and poorly explained by MTE at our site. © FEMS 2015.

  6. Maternal executive function, heart rate, and EEG alpha reactivity interact in the prediction of harsh parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Bell, Martha Ann

    2017-02-01

    Do physiological and behavioral performance indicators of effortful cognitive self-regulation converge additively or interactively in their statistical prediction of individual differences in harsh parenting? To answer this question, we examined heart rate (HR) and electroencephalography alpha (α) reactivity during executive function (EF) tasks, along with observed and self-reported indicators of harsh parenting. A socioeconomically diverse sample of 115 mothers with 3- to 7-year-old children completed questionnaires and a laboratory visit. Three quarters of the mothers showed typical patterns of task reactivity that were interpretable (i.e., increases in HR and decreases in α). Among them, we found no evidence to suggest that variance in harsh parenting was associated with magnitude of HR or α reactivity independently. Instead, the physiological variables interacted to enhance the EF statistical effect. EF explained one third of the variance in harsh parenting among mothers showing the largest α decreases when accompanied by modest to moderate (rather than substantial) HR increases. Physiological indicators can clarify the role and estimation of the strength of the effect of direct behavioral measures of cognitive regulation in the etiology of harsh parenting behaviors. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Berchick

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

  8. Prediction of the handling qualities and pilot-induced oscillation rating levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea-Irina AFLOARE

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The basis for the aviation development is the ambition of increasing the efficiency and safety of flight. Improvements include flight performance and extended flight envelope, new flight regimes and tasks. However, all of these factors lead to the increase of pilot workload which can reduce the accuracy and safety of flight. Fixed and rotary wing pilots are being confronted with potential instabilities or with annoying limit cycle oscillations, known as Aircraft/Rotorcraft Pilot Couplings (A/RPC that arise from the effort of controlling the vehicle with high response actuators. This paper deals with the unified theory of predicting handling qualities level (HQSF and pilot-induced oscillation rating levels (PIOR based on the structural model of human operator, developed by Hess. HQSF and PIOR are capable of capturing the prominent features of human pilot dynamics characteristics for a large class of aerial vehicles and tasks. The key element in this method is to unify the topics of vehicle handling qualities and RPC/PIO, applied to the analysis of a medium weight helicopter model.

  9. Baseline mean deviation and rates of visual field change in treated glaucoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forchheimer, I; de Moraes, C G; Teng, C C; Folgar, F; Tello, C; Ritch, R; Liebmann, J M

    2011-05-01

    To evaluate the relationships between baseline visual field (VF) mean deviation (MD) and subsequent progression in treated glaucoma. Records of patients seen in a glaucoma practice between 1999 and 2009 were reviewed. Patients with glaucomatous optic neuropathy, baseline VF damage, and ≥8 SITA-standard 24-2 VF were included. Patients were divided into tertiles based upon baseline MD. Automated pointwise linear regression determined global and localized rates (decibels (dB) per year) of change. Progression was defined when two or more adjacent test locations in the same hemifield showed a sensitivity decline at a rate of >1.0  dB per year, P0.50) and global rates of VF change of progressing eyes were -1.3±1.2, -1.01±0.7, and -0.9±0.5 dB/year (P=0.09, analysis of variance). Within these groups, intraocular pressure (IOP) in stable vs progressing eyes were 15.5±3.3 vs 17.0±3.1 (P0.50) and multivariate (P=0.26) analyses adjusting for differences in follow-up IOP. After correcting for differences in IOP in treated glaucoma patients, we did not find a relationship between the rate of VF change (dB per year) and the severity of the baseline VF MD. This finding may have been due to more aggressive IOP lowering in eyes with more severe disease. Eyes with lower IOP progressed less frequently across the spectrum of VF loss.

  10. Changes in monthly unemployment rates may predict changes in the number of psychiatric presentations to emergency services in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidargaddi, Niranjan; Bastiampillai, Tarun; Schrader, Geoffrey; Adams, Robert; Piantadosi, Cynthia; Strobel, Jörg; Tucker, Graeme; Allison, Stephen

    2015-07-24

    To determine the extent to which variations in monthly Mental Health Emergency Department (MHED) presentations in South Australian Public Hospitals are associated with the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) monthly unemployment rates. Times series modelling of relationships between monthly MHED presentations to South Australian Public Hospitals derived from the Integrated South Australian Activity Collection (ISAAC) data base and the ABS monthly unemployment rates in South Australia between January 2004-June 2011. Time series modelling using monthly unemployment rates from ABS as a predictor variable explains 69% of the variation in monthly MHED presentations across public hospitals in South Australia. Thirty-two percent of the variation in current month's male MHED presentations can be predicted by using the 2 months' prior male unemployment rate. Over 63% of the variation in monthly female MHED presentations can be predicted by either male or female prior monthly unemployment rates. The findings of this study highlight that even with the relatively favourable economic conditions, small shifts in monthly unemployment rates can predict variations in monthly MHED presentations, particularly for women. Monthly ABS unemployment rates may be a useful metric for predicting demand for emergency mental health services.

  11. Comparison of serial field bus topologies at high transmission rates; Topologievergleich serieller Feldbusse bei hohen Uebertragungsraten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, U. [Fachhochschule Lippe, Lemgo (Germany); Meinhardt, S. [Eltromat Gesellschaft fuer Industrieelektronik mbH, Leopoldshoehe (Germany)

    1999-11-01

    This paper investigates the maximum transmission rate of serial field-busses for different line topologies. The unidirectional point-to-point topology (e.g. INTERBUS-S) and the bidirectional multi-drop topology (e.g. PROFIBUS-DP) are compared. Developed simulation models and their results will be presented and causes of different transmission ranges will be discussed. (orig.) [Deutsch] Dieser Beitrag untersucht die maximal nutzbare Uebertragungsrate serieller Feldbusse unter Beruecksichtigung ihrer unterschiedlichen Leitungstopologien. Vergleichend gegenuebergstellt werden eine unidirektionale Punkt-zu-Punkt-Topologie (z.B. INTERBUS-S) und eine bidirektionale Multi-Drop-Topologie (z.B. PROFIBUS-DP). Entwickelte Simulationsmodelle und deren Ergebnisse werden vorgestellt und die Ursachen der unterschiedlichen Uebertragungsreichweiten eroertert. (orig.)

  12. Field Programmable Gate Array Failure Rate Estimation Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven D.; Hatfield, Glen S.; Britton, Paul

    2017-01-01

    Today's launch vehicles complex electronic and avionic systems heavily utilize the Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) integrated circuit (IC). FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols such as MIL-STD-1553B, and in control signal commands such as in solenoid/servo valves actuations. This paper will demonstrate guidelines to estimate FPGA failure rates for a launch vehicle, the guidelines will account for hardware, firmware, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC, FPGA memory and clock. The firmware portion will provide guidelines on the high level FPGA programming language and ways to account for software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will provide guidelines on environment susceptibility as well as guidelines on tailoring other launch vehicle programs historical data to a specific launch vehicle.

  13. A method for radiobiological investigations in radiation fields with different LET and high dose rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grundler, W.

    1976-01-01

    For investigations: 1. Performed in the field of radiobiology with different LET-radiation and a relatively high background dose rate of one component (e.g. investigations with fast and intermediate reactor neutrons) 2. Concerning radiation risk studies within a wide range 3. Of irradiations, covering a long time period (up to 100 days) a test system is necessary which on the one hand makes it possible to analyze the influence of different LET radiation and secondly shows a relative radiation resistant behaviour and allows a simple cell cycle regulation. A survey is given upon the installed device of a simple cell observation method, the biological test system used and the analysis of effects caused by dose, repair and LET. It is possible to analyze the behaviour of the nonsurvival cells and to demonstrate different reactions of the test parameters to the radiation of different LET. (author)

  14. Comparing an Annual and a Daily Time-Step Model for Predicting Field-Scale Phosphorus Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Carl H; Forsberg, Adam; Mittelstet, Aaron; Radcliffe, David E; Storm, Daniel; Ramirez-Avila, John; Sharpley, Andrew N; Osmond, Deanna

    2017-11-01

    A wide range of mathematical models are available for predicting phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields, ranging from simple, empirically based annual time-step models to more complex, process-based daily time-step models. In this study, we compare field-scale P-loss predictions between the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE), an empirically based annual time-step model, and the Texas Best Management Practice Evaluation Tool (TBET), a process-based daily time-step model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We first compared predictions of field-scale P loss from both models using field and land management data collected from 11 research sites throughout the southern United States. We then compared predictions of P loss from both models with measured P-loss data from these sites. We observed a strong and statistically significant ( loss between the two models; however, APLE predicted, on average, 44% greater dissolved P loss, whereas TBET predicted, on average, 105% greater particulate P loss for the conditions simulated in our study. When we compared model predictions with measured P-loss data, neither model consistently outperformed the other, indicating that more complex models do not necessarily produce better predictions of field-scale P loss. Our results also highlight limitations with both models and the need for continued efforts to improve their accuracy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  15. Comparison of predicted far-field temperatures for discrete and smeared heat sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryder, E.E.

    1992-01-01

    A fundamental concern in the design of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. Nevada is the response of the host rock to the emplacement of heat-generating waste. The thermal perturbation of the rock mass has implications regarding the structural, hydrologic. and geochemical performance of the potential repository. The phenomenological coupling of many of these performance aspects makes repository thermal modeling a difficult task. For many of the more complex, coupled models, it is often necessary to reduce the geometry of the potential repository to a smeared heat-source approximation. Such simplifications have impacts on induced thermal profiles that in turn may influence other predicted responses through one- or two-way thermal couplings. The effect of waste employment layout on host-rock thermal was chosen as the primary emphasis of this study. Using a consistent set of modeling and input assumptions, far-field thermal response predictions made for discrete-source as well as plate source approximations of the repository geometry. Input values used in the simulations are consistent with a design-basis a real power density (APD) of 80 kW/acre as would be achieved assuming a 2010 emplacement start date, a levelized receipt schedule, and a limitation on available area as published in previous design studies. It was found that edge effects resulting from general repository layout have a significant influence on the shapes and extents of isothermal profiles, and should be accounted for in far-field modeling efforts

  16. A method for gear fatigue life prediction considering the internal flow field of the gear pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haidong; Li, Zhiqiang; Qi, Lele; Qiao, Liang

    2018-01-01

    Gear pump is the most widely used volume type hydraulic pump, and it is the main power source of the hydraulic system. Its performance is influenced by many factors, such as working environment, maintenance, fluid pressure and so on. It is different from the gear transmission system, the internal flow field of gear pump has a greater impact on the gear life, therefore it needs to consider the internal hydraulic system when predicting the gear fatigue life. In this paper, a certain aircraft gear pump as the research object, aim at the typical failure forms, gear contact fatigue, of gear pump, proposing the prediction method based on the virtual simulation. The method use CFD (Computational fluid dynamics) software to analyze pressure distribution of internal flow field of the gear pump, and constructed the unidirectional flow-solid coupling model of gear to acquire the contact stress of tooth surface on Ansys workbench software. Finally, employing nominal stress method and Miner cumulative damage theory to calculated the gear contact fatigue life based on modified material P-S-N curve. Engineering practice show that the method is feasible and efficient.

  17. The location and rate of dayside reconnection during an interval of southward interplanetary magnetic field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pinnock

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available Using ionospheric data from the SuperDARN radar network and a DMSP satellite we obtain a comprehensive description of the spatial and temporal pattern of day-side reconnection. During a period of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, the data are used to determine the location of the ionospheric projection of the dayside magnetopause reconnection X-line. From the flow of plasma across the projected X-line, we derive the reconnection rate across 7 h of longitude and estimate it for the total length of the X-line footprint, which was found to be 10 h of longitude. Using the Tsyganenko 96 magnetic field model, the ionospheric data are mapped to the magnetopause, in order to provide an estimate of the extent of the reconnection X-line. This is found to be ~ 38 RE in extent, spanning the whole dayside magnetopause from dawn to dusk flank. Our results are compared with previously reported encounters by the Equator-S and Geotail spacecraft with a reconnecting magnetopause, near the dawn flank, for the same period. The SuperDARN observations allow the satellite data to be set in the context of the whole magnetopause reconnection X-line. The total potential associated with dayside reconnection was ~ 150 kV. The reconnection signatures detected by the Equator-S satellite mapped to a region in the ionosphere showing continuous flow across the polar cap boundary, but the reconnection rate was variable and showed a clear spatial variation, with a distinct minimum at 14:00 magnetic local time which was present throughout the 30-min study period.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (magnetopause, cusp and boundary layers; magnetosphere-ionoshere interactions – Space plasma physics (magnetic reconnection

  18. The protective rate of the feline immunodeficiency virus vaccine: An Australian field study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westman, M E; Malik, R; Hall, E; Harris, M; Norris, J M

    2016-09-07

    A case-control field study was undertaken to determine the level of protection conferred to client-owned cats in Australia against feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) using a commercial vaccine. 440 cats with outdoor access from