Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

2015-11-01

Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Degree of host susceptibility in the initial disease outbreak influences subsequent epidemic spread

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Severns, Paul M.; Estep, Laura K.; Sackett, Kathryn E.; Mundt, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

Summary Disease epidemics typically begin as an outbreak of a relatively small, spatially explicit population of infected individuals (focus), in which disease prevalence increases and rapidly spreads into the uninfected, at-risk population. Studies of epidemic spread typically address factors influencing disease spread through the at-risk population, but the initial outbreak may strongly influence spread of the subsequent epidemic.We initiated wheat stripe rust Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici epidemics to assess the influence of the focus on final disease prevalence when the degree of disease susceptibility differed between the at-risk and focus populations.When the focus/at-risk plantings consisted of partially genetic resistant and susceptible cultivars, final disease prevalence was statistically indistinguishable from epidemics produced by the focus cultivar in monoculture. In these experimental epidemics, disease prevalence was not influenced by the transition into an at-risk population that differed in disease susceptibility. Instead, the focus appeared to exert a dominant influence on the subsequent epidemic.Final disease prevalence was not consistently attributable to either the focus or the at-risk population when focus/at-risk populations were planted in a factorial set-up with a mixture (~28% susceptible and 72% resistant) and susceptible individuals. In these experimental epidemics, spatial heterogeneity in disease susceptibility within the at-risk population appeared to counter the dominant influence of the focus.Cessation of spore production from the focus (through fungicide/glyphosate application) after 1.3 generations of stripe rust spread did not reduce final disease prevalence, indicating that the focus influence on disease spread is established early in the epidemic.Synthesis and applications. Our experiments indicated that outbreak conditions can be highly influential on epidemic spread, even when disease resistance in the at-risk population

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

2014-01-01

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

2014-01-31

Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

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Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

2015-11-01

Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

Epidemic spreading and immunization strategy in multiplex networks

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Alvarez Zuzek, Lucila G.; Buono, Camila; Braunstein, Lidia A.

2015-09-01

A more connected world has brought major consequences such as facilitate the spread of diseases all over the world to quickly become epidemics, reason why researchers are concentrated in modeling the propagation of epidemics and outbreaks in multilayer networks. In this networks all nodes interact in different layers with different type of links. However, in many scenarios such as in the society, a multiplex network framework is not completely suitable since not all individuals participate in all layers. In this paper, we use a partially overlapped, multiplex network where only a fraction of the individuals are shared by the layers. We develop a mitigation strategy for stopping a disease propagation, considering the Susceptible-Infected- Recover model, in a system consisted by two layers. We consider a random immunization in one of the layers and study the effect of the overlapping fraction in both, the propagation of the disease and the immunization strategy. Using branching theory, we study this scenario theoretically and via simulations and find a lower epidemic threshold than in the case without strategy.

Spread of epidemic disease on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, M. E.

2002-07-01

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

Competing spreading processes on multiplex networks: awareness and epidemics.

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Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2014-07-01

Epidemiclike spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [C. Granell et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013).] presented an analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critical onset of the epidemics starts, depending on completion of the awareness process. Here we present a full analysis of these critical properties in the more general scenario where the awareness spreading does not imply total immunization, and where infection does not imply immediate awareness of it. We find the critical relation between the two competing processes for a wide spectrum of parameters representing the interaction between them. We also analyze the consequences of a massive broadcast of awareness (mass media) on the final outcome of the epidemic incidence. Importantly enough, the mass media make the metacritical point disappear. The results reveal that the main finding, i.e., existence of a metacritical point, is rooted in the competition principle and holds for a large set of scenarios.

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

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Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.

2015-01-01

Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

Epidemic Spread of Symbiotic and Non-Symbiotic Bradyrhizobium Genotypes Across California.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollowell, A C; Regus, J U; Gano, K A; Bantay, R; Centeno, D; Pham, J; Lyu, J Y; Moore, D; Bernardo, A; Lopez, G; Patil, A; Patel, S; Lii, Y; Sachs, J L

2016-04-01

The patterns and drivers of bacterial strain dominance remain poorly understood in natural populations. Here, we cultured 1292 Bradyrhizobium isolates from symbiotic root nodules and the soil root interface of the host plant Acmispon strigosus across a >840-km transect in California. To investigate epidemiology and the potential role of accessory loci as epidemic drivers, isolates were genotyped at two chromosomal loci and were assayed for presence or absence of accessory "symbiosis island" loci that encode capacity to form nodules on hosts. We found that Bradyrhizobium populations were very diverse but dominated by few haplotypes-with a single "epidemic" haplotype constituting nearly 30 % of collected isolates and spreading nearly statewide. In many Bradyrhizobium lineages, we inferred presence and absence of the symbiosis island suggesting recurrent evolutionary gain and or loss of symbiotic capacity. We did not find statistical phylogenetic evidence that the symbiosis island acquisition promotes strain dominance and both symbiotic and non-symbiotic strains exhibited population dominance and spatial spread. Our dataset reveals that a strikingly few Bradyrhizobium genotypes can rapidly spread to dominate a landscape and suggests that these epidemics are not driven by the acquisition of accessory loci as occurs in key human pathogens.

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

2016-01-01

The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

2014-01-01

Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

2016-12-01

In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

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Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

2007-10-01

The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks including the effect of individual vigilance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong Yong-Wang; Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

2012-01-01

In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading in scale-free networks and propose a new susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that includes the effect of individual vigilance. In our model, the effective spreading rate is dynamically adjusted with the time evolution at the vigilance period. Using the mean-field theory, an analytical result is derived. It shows that individual vigilance has no effect on the epidemic threshold. The numerical simulations agree well with the analytical result. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of individual vigilance on the epidemic spreading speed. It is shown that individual vigilance can slow the epidemic spreading speed effectively and delay the arrival of peak epidemic infection. (general)

Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

2012-08-01

Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

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Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

2009-08-01

In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

Epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Xiangwei; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2009-01-01

Many empirical studies reveal that the weights and community structure are ubiquitous in various natural and artificial networks. In this paper, based on the SI disease model, we investigate the epidemic spreading in weighted scale-free networks with community structure. Two exponents, α and β, are introduced to weight the internal edges and external edges, respectively; and a tunable probability parameter q is also introduced to adjust the strength of community structure. We find the external weighting exponent β plays a much more important role in slackening the epidemic spreading and reducing the danger brought by the epidemic than the internal weighting exponent α. Moreover, a novel result we find is that the strong community structure is no longer helpful for slackening the danger brought by the epidemic in the weighted cases. In addition, we show the hierarchical dynamics of the epidemic spreading in the weighted scale-free networks with communities which is also displayed in the famous BA scale-free networks

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Disease spreading in real-life networks

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Gallos, Lazaros; Argyrakis, Panos

2002-08-01

In recent years the scientific community has shown a vivid interest in the network structure and dynamics of real-life organized systems. Many such systems, covering an extremely wide range of applications, have been recently shown to exhibit scale-free character in their connectivity distribution, meaning that they obey a power law. Modeling of epidemics on lattices and small-world networks suffers from the presence of a critical infection threshold, above which the entire population is infected. For scale-free networks, the original assumption was that the formation of a giant cluster would lead to an epidemic spreading in the same way as in simpler networks. Here we show that modeling epidemics on a scale-free network can greatly improve the predictions on the rate and efficiency of spreading, as compared to lattice models and small-world networks. We also show that the dynamics of a disease are greatly influenced by the underlying population structure. The exact same model can describe a plethora of networks, such as social networks, virus spreading in the Web, rumor spreading, signal transmission etc.

Suppressing epidemic spreading by risk-averse migration in dynamical networks

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Yang, Han-Xin; Tang, Ming; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between individual behaviors and epidemic spreading in a dynamical network. We distribute agents on a square-shaped region with periodic boundary conditions. Every agent is regarded as a node of the network and a wireless link is established between two agents if their geographical distance is less than a certain radius. At each time, every agent assesses the epidemic situation and make decisions on whether it should stay in or leave its current place. An agent will leave its current place with a speed if the number of infected neighbors reaches or exceeds a critical value E. Owing to the movement of agents, the network's structure is dynamical. Interestingly, we find that there exists an optimal value of E leading to the maximum epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by risk-averse migration. Besides, we find that the epidemic threshold increases as the recovering rate increases, decreases as the contact radius increases, and is maximized by an optimal moving speed. Our findings offer a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading in dynamical networks.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

OpenAIRE

Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

2016-01-01

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

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Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

2013-12-01

Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duan, W.; Quax, R.; Lees, M.; Qiu, X.; Sloot, P.M.A.

2014-01-01

Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

From neurons to epidemics: How trophic coherence affects spreading processes

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Klaise, Janis; Johnson, Samuel

2016-06-01

Trophic coherence, a measure of the extent to which the nodes of a directed network are organised in levels, has recently been shown to be closely related to many structural and dynamical aspects of complex systems, including graph eigenspectra, the prevalence or absence of feedback cycles, and linear stability. Furthermore, non-trivial trophic structures have been observed in networks of neurons, species, genes, metabolites, cellular signalling, concatenated words, P2P users, and world trade. Here, we consider two simple yet apparently quite different dynamical models—one a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model adapted to include complex contagion and the other an Amari-Hopfield neural network—and show that in both cases the related spreading processes are modulated in similar ways by the trophic coherence of the underlying networks. To do this, we propose a network assembly model which can generate structures with tunable trophic coherence, limiting in either perfectly stratified networks or random graphs. We find that trophic coherence can exert a qualitative change in spreading behaviour, determining whether a pulse of activity will percolate through the entire network or remain confined to a subset of nodes, and whether such activity will quickly die out or endure indefinitely. These results could be important for our understanding of phenomena such as epidemics, rumours, shocks to ecosystems, neuronal avalanches, and many other spreading processes.

PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retno Widyaningrum

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks.

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Kleczkowski, Adam; Oleś, Katarzyna; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Gilligan, Christopher A

2012-01-07

We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R(0), does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades

Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

2013-01-01

We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

Epidemic processes in complex networks

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Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-07-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-01

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-20

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

The SIS Model of Epidemic Spreading in a Hierarchical Social Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grabowski, A.; Kosinski, R.A.

2005-01-01

The phenomenon of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The SIS model with temporal immunity to a disease and a time of incubation is used. In our model spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions and the mobility of a contemporary community are taken into account. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. The influence of the structure of the social network on typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, is discussed. The probability that endemic state occurs is also calculated. Surprisingly it occurs, that less contagious diseases has greater chance to survive. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated and critical range of vaccinations that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results of numerical calculations are compared with the solutions of the master equation for the spreading process, and good agreement is found. (author)

Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

OpenAIRE

Granell, Clara; Gomez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-01-01

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusiv...

Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

2008-01-01

We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

Beyond network structure: How heterogeneous susceptibility modulates the spread of epidemics.

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Smilkov, Daniel; Hidalgo, Cesar A; Kocarev, Ljupco

2014-04-25

The compartmental models used to study epidemic spreading often assume the same susceptibility for all individuals, and are therefore, agnostic about the effects that differences in susceptibility can have on epidemic spreading. Here we show that-for the SIS model-differential susceptibility can make networks more vulnerable to the spread of diseases when the correlation between a node's degree and susceptibility are positive, and less vulnerable when this correlation is negative. Moreover, we show that networks become more likely to contain a pocket of infection when individuals are more likely to connect with others that have similar susceptibility (the network is segregated). These results show that the failure to include differential susceptibility to epidemic models can lead to a systematic over/under estimation of fundamental epidemic parameters when the structure of the networks is not independent from the susceptibility of the nodes or when there are correlations between the susceptibility of connected individuals.

Suppressing epidemic spreading in multiplex networks with social-support

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Chen, Xiaolong; Wang, Ruijie; Tang, Ming; Cai, Shimin; Stanley, H. Eugene; Braunstein, Lidia A.

2018-01-01

Although suppressing the spread of a disease is usually achieved by investing in public resources, in the real world only a small percentage of the population have access to government assistance when there is an outbreak, and most must rely on resources from family or friends. We study the dynamics of disease spreading in social-contact multiplex networks when the recovery of infected nodes depends on resources from healthy neighbors in the social layer. We investigate how degree heterogeneity affects the spreading dynamics. Using theoretical analysis and simulations we find that degree heterogeneity promotes disease spreading. The phase transition of the infected density is hybrid and increases smoothly from zero to a finite small value at the first invasion threshold and then suddenly jumps at the second invasion threshold. We also find a hysteresis loop in the transition of the infected density. We further investigate how an overlap in the edges between two layers affects the spreading dynamics. We find that when the amount of overlap is smaller than a critical value the phase transition is hybrid and there is a hysteresis loop, otherwise the phase transition is continuous and the hysteresis loop vanishes. In addition, the edge overlap allows an epidemic outbreak when the transmission rate is below the first invasion threshold, but suppresses any explosive transition when the transmission rate is above the first invasion threshold.

Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

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Christel Kamp

Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

The small world yields the most effective information spreading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lü Linyuan; Chen Duanbing; Zhou Tao

2011-01-01

The spreading dynamics of information and diseases are usually analyzed by using a unified framework and analogous models. In this paper, we propose a model to emphasize the essential difference between information spreading and epidemic spreading, where the memory effects, the social reinforcement and the non-redundancy of contacts are taken into account. Under certain conditions, the information spreads faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks, which to some extent supports the recent experimental observation of spreading in online society (Centola D 2010 Science 329 1194). At the same time, the simulation result indicates that the random networks tend to be favorable for effective spreading when the network size increases. This challenges the validity of the above-mentioned experiment for large-scale systems. More importantly, we show that the spreading effectiveness can be sharply enhanced by introducing a little randomness into the regular structure, namely the small-world networks yield the most effective information spreading. This work provides insights into the role of local clustering in information spreading. (paper)

Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

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Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

2012-01-01

We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

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Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

2015-09-01

Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ting Liu

Full Text Available The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks.

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Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

2016-01-01

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

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Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

2017-05-05

An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Effects of human dynamics on epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire

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Li, Ruiqi; Wang, Wenxu; Di, Zengru

2017-02-01

Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic spreading dynamics influenced by spatial structure and human dynamics (including both human mobility and human interaction intensity). We propose a systematical model to depict nationwide epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire, which integrates multiple factors, such as human mobility, human interaction intensity, and demographic features. We provide insights to aid in modeling and predicting the epidemic spreading process by data-driven simulation and theoretical analysis, which is otherwise beyond the scope of local evaluation and geometrical views. We show that the requirement that the average local basic reproductive number to be greater than unity is not necessary for outbreaks of epidemics. The observed spreading phenomenon can be roughly explained as a heterogeneous diffusion-reaction process by redefining mobility distance according to the human mobility volume between nodes, which is beyond the geometrical viewpoint. However, the heterogeneity of human dynamics still poses challenges to precise prediction.

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

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Guo, Quantong; Jiang, Xin; Lei, Yanjun; Li, Meng; Ma, Yifang; Zheng, Zhiming

2015-01-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013), 10.1093/comnet/cnt006]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold βc with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5 , which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at αc≈0.5 . The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

The effects of global awareness on the spreading of epidemics in multiplex networks

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Zang, Haijuan

2018-02-01

It is increasingly recognized that understanding the complex interplay patterns between epidemic spreading and human behavioral is a key component of successful infection control efforts. In particular, individuals can obtain the information about epidemics and respond by altering their behaviors, which can affect the spreading dynamics as well. Besides, because the existence of herd-like behaviors, individuals are very easy to be influenced by the global awareness information. Here, in this paper, we propose a global awareness controlled spreading model (GACS) to explore the interplay between the coupled dynamical processes. Using the global microscopic Markov chain approach, we obtain the analytical results for the epidemic thresholds, which shows a high accuracy by comparison with lots of Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, considering other classical models used to describe the coupled dynamical processes, including the local awareness controlled contagion spreading (LACS) model, Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible-Unaware-Aware-Unaware (SIS-UAU) model and the single layer occasion, we make a detailed comparisons between the GACS with them. Although the comparisons and results depend on the parameters each model has, the GACS model always shows a strong restrain effects on epidemic spreading process. Our results give us a better understanding of the coupled dynamical processes and highlights the importance of considering the spreading of global awareness in the control of epidemics.

Evolution of scaling emergence in large-scale spatial epidemic spreading.

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Wang, Lin; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yi-Qing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Kan

2011-01-01

Zipf's law and Heaps' law are two representatives of the scaling concepts, which play a significant role in the study of complexity science. The coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law motivates different understandings on the dependence between these two scalings, which has still hardly been clarified. In this article, we observe an evolution process of the scalings: the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law are naturally shaped to coexist at the initial time, while the crossover comes with the emergence of their inconsistency at the larger time before reaching a stable state, where the Heaps' law still exists with the disappearance of strict Zipf's law. Such findings are illustrated with a scenario of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading, and the empirical results of pandemic disease support a universal analysis of the relation between the two laws regardless of the biological details of disease. Employing the United States domestic air transportation and demographic data to construct a metapopulation model for simulating the pandemic spread at the U.S. country level, we uncover that the broad heterogeneity of the infrastructure plays a key role in the evolution of scaling emergence. The analyses of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading help understand the temporal evolution of scalings, indicating the coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law depends on the collective dynamics of epidemic processes, and the heterogeneity of epidemic spread indicates the significance of performing targeted containment strategies at the early time of a pandemic disease.

Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

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Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

2018-01-01

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

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Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

2018-05-01

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

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Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

2013-12-07

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of

The Role of Node Heterogeneity in the Coupled Spreading of Epidemics and Awareness.

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Guo, Quantong; Lei, Yanjun; Xia, Chengyi; Guo, Lu; Jiang, Xin; Zheng, Zhiming

2016-01-01

Exploring the interplay between information spreading and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. As an efficient means of depicting the spreading of information, which manifests as a cascade phenomenon, awareness cascading is utilized to investigate this coupled transmission. Because in reality, different individuals facing the same epidemic will exhibit distinct behaviors according to their own experiences and attributes, it is important for us to consider the heterogeneity of individuals. Consequently, we propose a heterogeneous spreading model. To describe the heterogeneity, two of the most important but radically different methods for this purpose, the degree and k-core measures, are studied in this paper through three models based on different assumptions. Adopting a Markov chain approach, we succeed in predicting the epidemic threshold trend. Furthermore, we find that when the k-core measure is used to classify individuals, the spreading process is robust to these models, meaning that regardless of the model used, the spreading process is nearly identical at the macroscopic level. In addition, the k-core measure leads to a much larger final epidemic size than the degree measure. These results are cross-checked through numerous simulations, not only of a synthetic network but also of a real multiplex network. The presented findings provide a better understanding of k-core individuals and reveal the importance of considering network structure when investigating various dynamic processes.

Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Uekermann, Florian Philipp

The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

Spreading speed and travelling waves for a spatially discrete SIS epidemic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Kate Fang; Zhao Xiaoqiang

2008-01-01

This paper is devoted to the study of the asymptotic speed of spread and travelling waves for a spatially discrete SIS epidemic model. By appealing to the theory of spreading speeds and travelling waves for monotonic semiflows, we establish the existence of asymptotic speed of spread and show that it coincides with the minimal wave speed for monotonic travelling waves. This also gives an affirmative answer to an open problem presented by Rass and Radcliffe (2003 Spatial Deterministic Epidemics (Mathematical Surveys and Monographs vol 102) (Providence, RI: American Mathematical Society)) in the case of discrete spatial habitat

Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

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Chiyori T Urabe

Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

Zika virus infection in Vietnam: current epidemic, strain origin, spreading risk, and perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Dinh-Toi; Ngoc, Vo Truong Nhu; Tao, Yang

2017-11-01

Zika virus infection and its associated microcephaly have being receiving global concern. This infection has spread widely since the first outbreak was recorded in Africa in 1952. Now, it has been reported in over 70 countries on five continents including Africa, North and South America, Asia, and Europe. Vietnam is one of the most recent countries which had cases of Zika virus infection at the end of 2016. This country has also reported the first case of a microcephaly-born baby which was probably linked to Zika virus infection. However, information on the Zika virus epidemic in Vietnam is still limited. This brief report intends to update the current Zika virus epidemic, and to discuss challenges and perspectives in controlling this infection in Vietnam.

Ebola Virus Disease 2013-2014 Outbreak in West Africa: An Analysis of the Epidemic Spread and Response

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Orlando Cenciarelli

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Ebola virus epidemic burst in West Africa in late 2013, started in Guinea, reached in a few months an alarming diffusion, actually involving several countries (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali. Guinea and Liberia, the first nations affected by the outbreak, have put in place measures to contain the spread, supported by international organizations; then they were followed by the other nations affected. In the present EVD outbreak, the geographical spread of the virus has followed a new route: the achievement of large urban areas at an early stage of the epidemic has led to an unprecedented diffusion, featuring the largest outbreak of EVD of all time. This has caused significant concerns all over the world: the potential reaching of far countries from endemic areas, mainly through fast transports, induced several countries to issue information documents and health supervision for individuals going to or coming from the areas at risk. In this paper the geographical spread of the epidemic was analyzed, assessing the sequential appearance of cases by geographic area, considering the increase in cases and mortality according to affected nations. The measures implemented by each government and international organizations to contain the outbreak, and their effectiveness, were also evaluated.

Bursty communication patterns facilitate spreading in a threshold-based epidemic dynamics.

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Takaguchi, Taro; Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity followed by long periods of silence. This burstiness has been shown to affect spreading phenomena; it accelerates epidemic spreading in some cases and slows it down in other cases. We investigate a model of history-dependent contagion. In our model, repeated interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in a short period of time is needed for a susceptible individual to contract infection. We carry out numerical simulations on real temporal network data to find that bursty activity patterns facilitate epidemic spreading in our model.

Bursty communication patterns facilitate spreading in a threshold-based epidemic dynamics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taro Takaguchi

Full Text Available Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity followed by long periods of silence. This burstiness has been shown to affect spreading phenomena; it accelerates epidemic spreading in some cases and slows it down in other cases. We investigate a model of history-dependent contagion. In our model, repeated interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in a short period of time is needed for a susceptible individual to contract infection. We carry out numerical simulations on real temporal network data to find that bursty activity patterns facilitate epidemic spreading in our model.

Modeling the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in complex networks

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Ni, Shunjiang; Weng, Wenguo; Zhang, Hui

2011-11-01

We investigate by mean-field analysis and extensive simulations the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in various typical networks with two types of nodes: active nodes and passive nodes, of which the behavior patterns are modeled according to the social impact theory. In this study, nodes are not only the media to spread the virus, but also disseminate their opinions on the virus-whether there is a need for certain self-protection measures to be taken to reduce the risk of being infected. Our results indicate that the interaction between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics can have significant influences on the spreading of infectious diseases and related applications, such as the implementation of prevention and control measures against the infectious diseases.

Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: a spectral method.

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Brand, Samuel P C; Tildesley, Michael J; Keeling, Matthew J

2015-04-07

Spatial structure and hence the spatial position of host populations plays a vital role in the spread of infection. In the majority of situations, it is only possible to predict the spatial spread of infection using simulation models, which can be computationally demanding especially for large population sizes. Here we develop an approximation method that vastly reduces this computational burden. We assume that the transmission rates between individuals or sub-populations are determined by a spatial transmission kernel. This kernel is assumed to be isotropic, such that the transmission rate is simply a function of the distance between susceptible and infectious individuals; as such this provides the ideal mechanism for modelling localised transmission in a spatial environment. We show that the spatial force of infection acting on all susceptibles can be represented as a spatial convolution between the transmission kernel and a spatially extended 'image' of the infection state. This representation allows the rapid calculation of stochastic rates of infection using fast-Fourier transform (FFT) routines, which greatly improves the computational efficiency of spatial simulations. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of this fast spectral rate recalculation (FSR) method with two examples: an idealised scenario simulating an SIR-type epidemic outbreak amongst N habitats distributed across a two-dimensional plane; the spread of infection between US cattle farms, illustrating that the FSR method makes continental-scale outbreak forecasting feasible with desktop processing power. The latter model demonstrates which areas of the US are at consistently high risk for cattle-infections, although predictions of epidemic size are highly dependent on assumptions about the tail of the transmission kernel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

Epidemic processes in complex networks

OpenAIRE

Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

2015-01-01

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

On the existence of a threshold for preventive behavioral responses to suppress epidemic spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Chowdhury, Fahmida N; Scoglio, Caterina M

2012-01-01

The spontaneous behavioral responses of individuals to the progress of an epidemic are recognized to have a significant impact on how the infection spreads. One observation is that, even if the infection strength is larger than the classical epidemic threshold, the initially growing infection can diminish as the result of preventive behavioral patterns adopted by the individuals. In order to investigate such dynamics of the epidemic spreading, we use a simple behavioral model coupled with the individual-based SIS epidemic model where susceptible individuals adopt a preventive behavior when sensing infection. We show that, given any infection strength and contact topology, there exists a region in the behavior-related parameter space such that infection cannot survive in long run and is completely contained. Several simulation results, including a spreading scenario in a realistic contact network from a rural district in the State of Kansas, are presented to support our analytical arguments.

The relationship between human behavior and the process of epidemic spreading in a real social network

Science.gov (United States)

Grabowski, A.; Rosińska, M.

2012-07-01

On the basis of experimental data on interactions between humans we have investigated the process of epidemic spreading in a social network. We found that the distribution of the number of contacts maintained in one day is exponential. Data on frequency and duration of interpersonal interactions are presented. They allow us to simulate the spread of droplet-/-air-borne infections and to investigate the influence of human dynamics on the epidemic spread. Specifically, we investigated the influence of the distribution of frequency and duration of those contacts on magnitude, epidemic threshold and peak timing of epidemics propagating in respective networks. It turns out that a large increase in the magnitude of an epidemic and a decrease in epidemic threshold are visible if and only if both are taken into account. We have found that correlation between contact frequency and duration strongly influences the effectiveness of control measures like mass immunization campaigns.

Dynamic properties of epidemic spreading on finite size complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben

2005-11-01

The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.

Social networks and spreading of epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

2004-05-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

The spreading time in SIS epidemics on networks

Science.gov (United States)

He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

2018-03-01

In a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) process, we investigate the spreading time Tm, which is the time when the number of infected nodes in the metastable state is first reached, starting from the outbreak of the epidemics. We observe that the spreading time Tm resembles a lognormal-like distribution, though with different deep tails, both for the Markovian and the non-Markovian infection process, which implies that the spreading time can be very long with a relatively high probability. In addition, we show that a stronger virus, with a higher effective infection rate τ or an earlier timing of the infection attempts, does not always lead to a shorter average spreading time E [Tm ] . We numerically demonstrate that the average spreading time E [Tm ] in the complete graph and the star graph scales logarithmically as a function of the network size N for a fixed fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state.

Hop limited epidemic-like information spreading in mobile social networks with selfish nodes

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yahui; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

2013-07-01

Similar to epidemics, information can be transmitted directly among users in mobile social networks. Different from epidemics, we can control the spreading process by adjusting the corresponding parameters (e.g., hop count) directly. This paper proposes a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of an epidemic-like spreading algorithm, in which the maximal hop count of the information is limited. In addition, our model can be used to evaluate the impact of users’ selfish behavior. Simulations show the accuracy of our theoretical model. Numerical results show that the information hop count can have an important impact. In addition, the impact of selfish behavior is related to the information hop count.

Hop limited epidemic-like information spreading in mobile social networks with selfish nodes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Yahui; Deng, Su; Huang, Hongbin

2013-01-01

Similar to epidemics, information can be transmitted directly among users in mobile social networks. Different from epidemics, we can control the spreading process by adjusting the corresponding parameters (e.g., hop count) directly. This paper proposes a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of an epidemic-like spreading algorithm, in which the maximal hop count of the information is limited. In addition, our model can be used to evaluate the impact of users’ selfish behavior. Simulations show the accuracy of our theoretical model. Numerical results show that the information hop count can have an important impact. In addition, the impact of selfish behavior is related to the information hop count. (paper)

Roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness in spreading dynamics on multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ming; Liu, Run-Ran; Peng, Dan; Jia, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Bing-Hong

2018-02-01

Comparing with single networks, the multiplex networks bring two main effects on the spreading process among individuals. First, the pathogen or information can be transmitted to more individuals through different layers at one time, which enlarges the spreading scope. Second, through different layers, an individual can also transmit the pathogen or information to the same individuals more than once at one time, which makes the spreading more effective. To understand the different roles of the spreading scope and effectiveness, we propose an epidemic model on multiplex networks with link overlapping, where the spreading effectiveness of each interaction as well as the variety of channels (spreading scope) can be controlled by the number of overlapping links. We find that for Poisson degree distribution, increasing the epidemic scope (the first effect) is more efficient than enhancing epidemic probability (the second effect) to facilitate the spreading process. However, for power-law degree distribution, the effects of the two factors on the spreading dynamics become complicated. Enhancing epidemic probability makes pathogen or rumor easier to outbreak in a finite system. But after that increasing epidemic scopes is still more effective for a wide spreading. Theoretical results along with reasonable explanation for these phenomena are all given in this paper, which indicates that the epidemic scope could play an important role in the spreading dynamics.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-06-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

Epidemic spreading on adaptively weighted scale-free networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Mengfeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Kang, Huiyan; Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu

2017-04-01

We introduce three modified SIS models on scale-free networks that take into account variable population size, nonlinear infectivity, adaptive weights, behavior inertia and time delay, so as to better characterize the actual spread of epidemics. We develop new mathematical methods and techniques to study the dynamics of the models, including the basic reproduction number, and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. We show the disease-free equilibrium cannot undergo a Hopf bifurcation. We further analyze the effects of local information of diseases and various immunization schemes on epidemic dynamics. We also perform some stochastic network simulations which yield quantitative agreement with the deterministic mean-field approach.

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Barcellos, Christovam; Brasil, Patrícia; Cruz, Oswaldo G; Honório, Nildimar Alves; Kuper, Hannah; Carvalho, Marilia Sá

2018-01-09

The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

The Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: From Discovery to Future Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The first confirmed case of Zika virus infection in the Americas was reported in Northeast Brazil in May 2015, although phylogenetic studies indicate virus introduction as early as 2013. Zika rapidly spread across Brazil and to more than 50 other countries and territories on the American continent. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is thought to be the principal vector responsible for the widespread transmission of the virus. However, sexual transmission has also been reported. The explosively emerging epidemic has had diverse impacts on population health, coinciding with cases of Guillain–Barré Syndrome and an unexpected epidemic of newborns with microcephaly and other neurological impairments. This led to Brazil declaring a national public health emergency in November 2015, followed by a similar decision by the World Health Organization three months later. While dengue virus serotypes took several decades to spread across Brazil, the Zika virus epidemic diffused within months, extending beyond the area of permanent dengue transmission, which is bound by a climatic barrier in the south and low population density areas in the north. This rapid spread was probably due to a combination of factors, including a massive susceptible population, climatic conditions conducive for the mosquito vector, alternative non-vector transmission, and a highly mobile population. The epidemic has since subsided, but many unanswered questions remain. In this article, we provide an overview of the discovery of Zika virus in Brazil, including its emergence and spread, epidemiological surveillance, vector and non-vector transmission routes, clinical complications, and socio-economic impacts. We discuss gaps in the knowledge and the challenges ahead to anticipate, prevent, and control emerging and re-emerging epidemics of arboviruses in Brazil and worldwide.

Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

2015-10-01

In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

2016-01-01

textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

Science.gov (United States)

Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

2016-04-01

We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Paul

2008-09-01

Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

Long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Juhász, Róbert; Kovács, István A; Iglói, Ferenc

2015-03-01

Modeling long-range epidemic spreading in a random environment, we consider a quenched, disordered, d-dimensional contact process with infection rates decaying with distance as 1/rd+σ. We study the dynamical behavior of the model at and below the epidemic threshold by a variant of the strong-disorder renormalization-group method and by Monte Carlo simulations in one and two spatial dimensions. Starting from a single infected site, the average survival probability is found to decay as P(t)∼t-d/z up to multiplicative logarithmic corrections. Below the epidemic threshold, a Griffiths phase emerges, where the dynamical exponent z varies continuously with the control parameter and tends to zc=d+σ as the threshold is approached. At the threshold, the spatial extension of the infected cluster (in surviving trials) is found to grow as R(t)∼t1/zc with a multiplicative logarithmic correction and the average number of infected sites in surviving trials is found to increase as Ns(t)∼(lnt)χ with χ=2 in one dimension.

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

REPRODUCTIVE NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD AND CONTROL IN A COMMUNITY OF HOUSEHOLDS

OpenAIRE

Goldstein, E.; Paur, K.; Fraser, C.; Kenah, E.; Wallinga, J.; Lipsitch, M.

2009-01-01

Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be accommodated by considering a community of households. Our study of transmission dynamics in a community of households emphasizes five types of reproductive numbers for the epidemic spread: household-to-h...

Efficient control of epidemics spreading on networks: balance between treatment and recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Oleś, Katarzyna; Gudowska-Nowak, Ewa; Kleczkowski, Adam

2013-01-01

We analyse two models describing disease transmission and control on regular and small-world networks. We use simulations to find a control strategy that minimizes the total cost of an outbreak, thus balancing the costs of disease against that of the preventive treatment. The models are similar in their epidemiological part, but differ in how the removed/recovered individuals are treated. The differences in models affect choice of the strategy only for very cheap treatment and slow spreading disease. However for the combinations of parameters that are important from the epidemiological perspective (high infectiousness and expensive treatment) the models give similar results. Moreover, even where the choice of the strategy is different, the total cost spent on controlling the epidemic is very similar for both models.

The World-Wide Web past present and future, and its application to medicine

CERN Document Server

Sendall, D M

1997-01-01

The World-Wide Web was first developed as a tool for collaboration in the high energy physics community. From there it spread rapidly to other fields, and grew to its present impressive size. As an easy way to access information, it has been a great success, and a huge number of medical applications have taken advantage of it. But there is another side to the Web, its potential as a tool for collaboration between people. Medical examples include telemedicine and teaching. New technical developments offer still greater potential in medical and other fields. This paper gives some background to the early development of the World-Wide Web, a brief overview of its present state with some examples relevant to medicine, and a look at the future.

Fluctuations and Noise in Stochastic Spread of Respiratory Infection Epidemics in Social Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Yulmetyev, Renat; Emelyanova, Natalya; Demin, Sergey; Gafarov, Fail; Hänggi, Peter; Yulmetyeva, Dinara

2003-05-01

For the analysis of epidemic and disease dynamics complexity, it is necessary to understand the basic principles and notions of its spreading in long-time memory media. Here we considering the problem from a theoretical and practical viewpoint, presenting the quantitative evidence confirming the existence of stochastic long-range memory and robust chaos in a real time series of respiratory infections of human upper respiratory track. In this work we present a new statistical method of analyzing the spread of grippe and acute respiratory track infections epidemic process of human upper respiratory track by means of the theory of discrete non-Markov stochastic processes. We use the results of our recent theory (Phys. Rev. E 65, 046107 (2002)) for the study of statistical effects of memory in real data series, describing the epidemic dynamics of human acute respiratory track infections and grippe. The obtained results testify to an opportunity of the strict quantitative description of the regular and stochastic components in epidemic dynamics of social networks with a view to time discreteness and effects of statistical memory.

Interplay between the local information based behavioral responses and the epidemic spreading in complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Can; Xie, Jia-Rong; Chen, Han-Shuang; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Tang, Ming

2015-10-01

The spreading of an infectious disease can trigger human behavior responses to the disease, which in turn plays a crucial role on the spreading of epidemic. In this study, to illustrate the impacts of the human behavioral responses, a new class of individuals, S(F), is introduced to the classical susceptible-infected-recovered model. In the model, S(F) state represents that susceptible individuals who take self-initiate protective measures to lower the probability of being infected, and a susceptible individual may go to S(F) state with a response rate when contacting an infectious neighbor. Via the percolation method, the theoretical formulas for the epidemic threshold as well as the prevalence of epidemic are derived. Our finding indicates that, with the increasing of the response rate, the epidemic threshold is enhanced and the prevalence of epidemic is reduced. The analytical results are also verified by the numerical simulations. In addition, we demonstrate that, because the mean field method neglects the dynamic correlations, a wrong result based on the mean field method is obtained-the epidemic threshold is not related to the response rate, i.e., the additional S(F) state has no impact on the epidemic threshold.

Efficient control of epidemics spreading on networks: balance between treatment and recovery.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Oleś

Full Text Available We analyse two models describing disease transmission and control on regular and small-world networks. We use simulations to find a control strategy that minimizes the total cost of an outbreak, thus balancing the costs of disease against that of the preventive treatment. The models are similar in their epidemiological part, but differ in how the removed/recovered individuals are treated. The differences in models affect choice of the strategy only for very cheap treatment and slow spreading disease. However for the combinations of parameters that are important from the epidemiological perspective (high infectiousness and expensive treatment the models give similar results. Moreover, even where the choice of the strategy is different, the total cost spent on controlling the epidemic is very similar for both models.

Multiple effects of self-protection on the spreading of epidemics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhigang; Zhang, Haifeng; Wang, Zhen

2014-01-01

Aside from the commonly considered strategies: vaccination or risk, in this work another basic policy self-protection strategy is incorporated into research of epidemics spreading. Then within the network-theoretical framework, we mainly explore the impact of self-protection strategy on the epidemic size and the eradication of infection. Interestingly, we find that the self-protection influence is multiple: given that the effectiveness of the self-protective strategy is negligible, nobody is willing to take up this act, both vaccination and risk traits dominate the whole system; On the contrary, when the effectiveness of self-protective policy is elevated, it becomes a popular strategy and the size of epidemic can be controlled at a relatively low level. However, one worse situation is present as well: when the effectiveness of self-protection is moderate, the infection probability and epidemic size can reach the maximal level. This is because that, under such a case, the emergence of the self-protective strategy neither inspires the enthusiasm of vaccination nor provides ideal effect

Epidemic spreading in annealed directed networks: susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Yup

2013-01-01

We investigate epidemic spreading in annealed directed scale-free networks with the in-degree (k) distribution P(in)(k)~k(-γ(in)) and the out-degree (ℓ) distribution, P(out)(ℓ)~ℓ(-γ(out)). The correlation of each node on the networks is controlled by the probability r(0≤r≤1) in two different algorithms, the so-called k and ℓ algorithms. For r=1, the k algorithm gives =, whereas the ℓ algorithm gives =. For r=0, = for both algorithms. As the prototype of epidemic spreading, the susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process on the networks are analyzed using the heterogeneous mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The directedness of links and the correlation of the network are found to play important roles in the spreading, so that critical behaviors of both models are distinct from those on undirected scale-free networks.

Epidemic threshold in directed networks

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

2013-12-01

Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

Women, pharmacy and the World Wide Web: could they be the answer to the obesity epidemic?

Science.gov (United States)

Fakih, Souhiela; Hussainy, Safeera; Marriott, Jennifer

2014-04-01

The objective of this article is to explore how giving women access to evidence-based information in weight management through pharmacies, and by utilising the World Wide Web, is a much needed step towards dealing with the obesity crisis. Women's needs should be considered when developing evidence-based information on weight. Excess weight places them at high risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, infertility and complications following pregnancy and giving birth. Women are also an important population group because they influence decision-making around meal choices for their families and are the biggest consumers of weight-loss products, many of which can be purchased in pharmacies. Pharmacies are readily accessible primary healthcare locations and given the pharmacist's expertise in being able to recognise underlying causes of obesity (e.g. medications, certain disease states), pharmacies are an ideal location to provide women with evidence-based information on all facets of weight management. Considering the exponential rise in the use of the World Wide Web, this information could be delivered as an online educational resource supported by other flexible formats. The time has come for the development of an online, evidence-based educational resource on weight management, which is combined with other flexible formats and targeted at women in general and according to different phases of their lives (pregnancy, post-partum, menopause). By empowering women with this knowledge it will allow them and their families to take better control of their health and wellbeing, and it may just be the much needed answer to complement already existing resources to help curb the obesity epidemic. © 2013 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

Epidemic spreading in weighted networks: an edge-based mean-field solution.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Zimo; Zhou, Tao

2012-05-01

Weight distribution greatly impacts the epidemic spreading taking place on top of networks. This paper presents a study of a susceptible-infected-susceptible model on regular random networks with different kinds of weight distributions. Simulation results show that the more homogeneous weight distribution leads to higher epidemic prevalence, which, unfortunately, could not be captured by the traditional mean-field approximation. This paper gives an edge-based mean-field solution for general weight distribution, which can quantitatively reproduce the simulation results. This method could be applied to characterize the nonequilibrium steady states of dynamical processes on weighted networks.

Epidemic spreading on dynamical networks with temporary hubs and stable scale-free degree distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, An-Cai

2014-01-01

Recent empirical analyses of some realistic dynamical networks have demonstrated that their degree distributions are stable scale-free (SF), but the instantaneous well-connected hubs at one point of time can quickly become weakly connected. Motivated by these empirical results, we propose a simple toy dynamical agent-to-agent contact network model, in which each agent stays at one node of a static underlay network and the nearest neighbors swap their positions with each other. Although the degree distribution of the dynamical network model at any one time is equal to that in the static underlay network, the numbers and identities of each agent’s contacts will change over time. It is found that the dynamic interaction tends to suppress epidemic spreading in terms of larger epidemic threshold, smaller prevalence (the fraction of infected individuals) and smaller velocity of epidemic outbreak. Furthermore, the dynamic interaction results in the prevalence to undergo a phase transition at a finite threshold of the epidemic spread rate in the thermodynamic limit, which is in contradiction to the absence of an epidemic threshold in static SF networks. Some of these findings obtained from heterogeneous mean-field theory are in good agreement with numerical simulations. (paper)

Re-assessing the likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gloster, J.; Freshwater, A.; Sellers, R.F.

2005-01-01

The likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 epidemic is re-assessed in the light of current understanding of airborne disease spread. The findings strongly confirm those made at the time that airborne virus was the most likely cause of the rapid early...... development of the disease out to 60 km from the source. This conclusion is reached following a detailed epidemiological, meteorological and modelling study using original records and current modelling techniques. The role played by 'lee waves' as the mechanism for the spread is investigated. It is thought...... that they played little part in influencing the development of the epidemic. A number of lessons learned from the work are drawn, identifying the need for further research on the quantity and characteristics I of airborne virus. The results are also used to illustrate what advice would have been available...

Different behaviors of epidemic spreading in scale-free networks with identical degree sequence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chu Xiangwei; Guan Jihong [School of Electronics and Information, Tongji University, 4800 Cao' an Road, Shanghai 201804 (China); Zhang Zhongzhi; Zhou Shuigeng [School of Computer Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Li Mo, E-mail: zhangzz@fudan.edu.c, E-mail: jhguan@tongj.edu.c, E-mail: sgzhou@fudan.edu.c [Software School, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

2010-02-12

Recently, the study of dynamical behaviors of the susceptible-infected (SI) disease model in complex networks, especially in Barabasi-Albert (BA) scale-free networks, has attracted much attention. Although some interesting phenomena have been observed, the formative reasons for those particular dynamical behaviors are still not well understood, despite the speculation that topological properties (for example the degree distribution) have a strong impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we study the evolution behaviors of epidemic spreading on a class of scale-free networks sharing identical degree sequence, and observe significantly different evolution behaviors in the whole family of networks. We show that the power-law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the dynamical behaviors of disease diffusion on scale-free networks.

Different behaviors of epidemic spreading in scale-free networks with identical degree sequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu Xiangwei; Guan Jihong; Zhang Zhongzhi; Zhou Shuigeng; Li Mo

2010-01-01

Recently, the study of dynamical behaviors of the susceptible-infected (SI) disease model in complex networks, especially in Barabasi-Albert (BA) scale-free networks, has attracted much attention. Although some interesting phenomena have been observed, the formative reasons for those particular dynamical behaviors are still not well understood, despite the speculation that topological properties (for example the degree distribution) have a strong impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we study the evolution behaviors of epidemic spreading on a class of scale-free networks sharing identical degree sequence, and observe significantly different evolution behaviors in the whole family of networks. We show that the power-law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the dynamical behaviors of disease diffusion on scale-free networks.

Efficient local behavioral-change strategies to reduce the spread of epidemics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Bu, Yilei; Gregory, Steve; Mills, Harriet L.

2013-10-01

It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic, for example, social distancing. It is also well known that community structure (the existence of relatively densely connected groups of vertices) in contact networks influences the spread of disease. We propose a set of local strategies for social distancing, based on community structure, that can be employed in the event of an epidemic to reduce the epidemic size. Unlike most social distancing methods, ours do not require individuals to know the disease state (infected or susceptible, etc.) of others, and we do not make the unrealistic assumption that the structure of the entire contact network is known. Instead, the recommended behavior change is based only on an individual's local view of the network. Each individual avoids contact with a fraction of his/her contacts, using knowledge of his/her local network to decide which contacts should be avoided. If the behavior change occurs only when an individual becomes ill or aware of the disease, these strategies can substantially reduce epidemic size with a relatively small cost, measured by the number of contacts avoided.

Dynamics of epidemic spreading with vaccination: Impact of social pressure and engagement

Science.gov (United States)

Pires, Marcelo A.; Crokidakis, Nuno

2017-02-01

In this work we consider a model of epidemic spreading coupled with an opinion dynamics in a fully-connected population. Regarding the opinion dynamics, the individuals may be in two distinct states, namely in favor or against a vaccination campaign. Individuals against the vaccination follow a standard SIS model, whereas the pro-vaccine individuals can also be in a third compartment, namely Vaccinated. In addition, the opinions change according to the majority-rule dynamics in groups with three individuals. We also consider that the vaccine can give permanent or temporary immunization to the individuals. By means of analytical calculations and computer simulations, we show that the opinion dynamics can drastically affect the disease propagation, and that the engagement of the pro-vaccine individuals can be crucial for stopping the epidemic spreading. The full numerical code for simulating the model is available from the authors' webpage.

[Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

Science.gov (United States)

Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

2011-03-01

Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

Recent invasion of world-wide wheat growing areas by two aggressive strains of Puccinia striiformis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walter, Stephanie; Ali, Sajid; Justesen, Annemarie Fejer

2012-01-01

The ever more frequent and severe large-scale epidemics of wheat yellow/stripe rust disease (caused by Puccinia striiformis) pose a severe threat to the world’s wheat production (Hovmøller et al. 2010). The onset of a new series of world-wide wheat yellow rust epidemics in 2000 has been linked...

Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

2018-03-01

Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

Epidemic spreading induced by diversity of agents' mobility.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jie; Chung, Ning Ning; Chew, Lock Yue; Lai, Choy Heng

2012-08-01

In this paper, we study the impact of the preference of an individual for public transport on the spread of infectious disease, through a quantity known as the public mobility. Our theoretical and numerical results based on a constructed model reveal that if the average public mobility of the agents is fixed, an increase in the diversity of the agents' public mobility reduces the epidemic threshold, beyond which an enhancement in the rate of infection is observed. Our findings provide an approach to improve the resistance of a society against infectious disease, while preserving the utilization rate of the public transportation system.

Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith

2016-04-20

We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary connected network topology when the agents receive personalized information about the current epidemic state. The agents utilize their available information to either reduce interactions with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states of nodes in contact neighborhoods 2) the average states of nodes in an information network 3) a global broadcast of the average epidemic state of the network. A 2n-state Markov Chain is first considered to model the disease dynamics with awareness, from which a mean-field discrete-time n-state dynamical system is derived, where each state corresponds to an agent\\'s probability of being infected. The nonlinear model is a lower bound of its linearized version about the origin. Hence, global stability of the origin (the diseasefree equilibrium) in the linear model implies global stability in the nonlinear model. When the origin is not stable, we show the existence of a nontrivial fixed point in the awareness model, which obeys a strict partial order in relation to the nontrivial fixed point of the dynamics without distancing. In simulations, we define two performance metrics to understand the effectiveness agent awareness has in reducing the spread of an epidemic. © 2015 IEEE.

Spatial spread of an epidemic through public transportation systems with a hub.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Fei; Connell McCluskey, C; Cressman, Ross

2013-11-01

This article investigates an epidemic spreading among several locations through a transportation system, with a hub connecting these locations. Public transportation is not only a bridge through which infections travel from one location to another but also a place where infections occur since individuals are typically in close proximity to each other due to the limited space in these systems. A mathematical model is constructed to study the spread of an infectious disease through such systems. A variant of the next generation method is proposed and used to provide upper and lower bounds of the basic reproduction number for the model. Our investigation indicates that increasing transportation efficiency, and improving sanitation and ventilation of the public transportation system decrease the chance of an outbreak occurring. Moreover, discouraging unnecessary travel during an epidemic also decreases the chance of an outbreak. However, reducing travel by infectives while allowing susceptibles to travel may not be enough to avoid an outbreak. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How heterogeneous susceptibility and recovery rates affect the spread of epidemics on networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Gou

2017-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an extended heterogeneous SIR model is proposed, which generalizes the heterogeneous mean-field theory. Different from the traditional heterogeneous mean-field model only taking into account the heterogeneity of degree, our model considers not only the heterogeneity of degree but also the heterogeneity of susceptibility and recovery rates. Then, we analytically study the basic reproductive number and the final epidemic size. Combining with numerical simulations, it is found that the basic reproductive number depends on the mean of distributions of susceptibility and disease course when both of them are independent. If the mean of these two distributions is identical, increasing the variance of susceptibility may block the spread of epidemics, while the corresponding increase in the variance of disease course has little effect on the final epidemic size. It is also shown that positive correlations between individual susceptibility, course of disease and the square of degree make the population more vulnerable to epidemic and avail to the epidemic prevalence, whereas the negative correlations make the population less vulnerable and impede the epidemic prevalence. Keywords: Networks, Heterogeneity, Susceptibility, Recovery rates, Correlation, The basic reproductive number, The final epidemic size

Dynamic behavior of the interaction between epidemics and cascades on heterogeneous networks

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Lurong; Jin, Xinyu; Xia, Yongxiang; Ouyang, Bo; Wu, Duanpo

2014-12-01

Epidemic spreading and cascading failure are two important dynamical processes on complex networks. They have been investigated separately for a long time. But in the real world, these two dynamics sometimes may interact with each other. In this paper, we explore a model combined with the SIR epidemic spreading model and a local load sharing cascading failure model. There exists a critical value of the tolerance parameter for which the epidemic with high infection probability can spread out and infect a fraction of the network in this model. When the tolerance parameter is smaller than the critical value, the cascading failure cuts off the abundance of paths and blocks the spreading of the epidemic locally. While the tolerance parameter is larger than the critical value, the epidemic spreads out and infects a fraction of the network. A method for estimating the critical value is proposed. In simulations, we verify the effectiveness of this method in the uncorrelated configuration model (UCM) scale-free networks.

Modelling control of epidemics spreading by long-range interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Dybiec, Bartłomiej; Kleczkowski, Adam; Gilligan, Christopher A

2009-10-06

We have studied the spread of epidemics characterized by a mixture of local and non-local interactions. The infection spreads on a two-dimensional lattice with the fixed nearest neighbour connections. In addition, long-range dynamical links are formed by moving agents (vectors). Vectors perform random walks, with step length distributed according to a thick-tail distribution. Two distributions are considered in this paper, an alpha-stable distribution describing self-similar vector movement, yet characterized by an infinite variance and an exponential power characterized by a large but finite variance. Such long-range interactions are hard to track and make control of epidemics very difficult. We also allowed for cryptic infection, whereby an infected individual on the lattice can be infectious prior to showing any symptoms of infection or disease. To account for such cryptic spread, we considered a control strategy in which not only detected, i.e. symptomatic, individuals but also all individuals within a certain control neighbourhood are treated upon the detection of disease. We show that it is possible to eradicate the disease by using such purely local control measures, even in the presence of long-range jumps. In particular, we show that the success of local control and the choice of the optimal strategy depend in a non-trivial way on the dispersal patterns of the vectors. By characterizing these patterns using the stability index of the alpha-stable distribution to change the power-law behaviour or the exponent characterizing the decay of an exponential power distribution, we show that infection can be successfully contained using relatively small control neighbourhoods for two limiting cases for long-distance dispersal and for vectors that are much more limited in their dispersal range.

Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

Science.gov (United States)

Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

2017-05-01

Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

Halting HIV/AIDS with avatars and havatars: a virtual world approach to modelling epidemics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smith? Robert J

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A major deficit of all approaches to epidemic modelling to date has been the need to approximate or guess at human behaviour in disease-transmission-related contexts. Avatars are generally human-like figures in virtual computer worlds controlled by human individuals. Methods We introduce the concept of a "havatar", which is a (human, avatar pairing. Evidence is mounting that this pairing behaves in virtual contexts much like the human in the pairing might behave in analogous real-world contexts. Results We propose that studies of havatars, in a virtual world, may give a realistic approximation of human behaviour in real-world contexts. If the virtual world approximates the real world in relevant details (geography, transportation, etc., virtual epidemics in that world could accurately simulate real-world epidemics. Havatar modelling of epidemics therefore offers a complementary tool for tackling how best to halt epidemics, including perhaps HIV/AIDS, since sexual behaviour is a significant component of some virtual worlds, such as Second Life. Conclusion Havatars place the control parameters of an epidemic in the hands of each individual. By providing tools that everyone can understand and use, we could democratise epidemiology.

Rapid Spread of Zika Virus in The Americas--Implications for Public Health Preparedness for Mass Gatherings at the 2016 Brazil Olympic Games.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Eskild; Wilson, Mary E; Touch, Sok; McCloskey, Brian; Mwaba, Peter; Bates, Matthew; Dar, Osman; Mattes, Frank; Kidd, Mike; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Azhar, Esam I; Zumla, Alimuddin

2016-03-01

Mass gatherings at major international sporting events put millions of international travelers and local host-country residents at risk of acquiring infectious diseases, including locally endemic infectious diseases. The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) has recently aroused global attention due to its rapid spread since its first detection in May 2015 in Brazil to 22 other countries and other territories in the Americas. The ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, has also been associated with a significant rise in the number of babies born with microcephaly and neurological disorders, and has been declared a 'Global Emergency by the World Health Organization. This explosive spread of ZIKV in Brazil poses challenges for public health preparedness and surveillance for the Olympics and Paralympics which are due to be held in Rio De Janeiro in August, 2016. We review the epidemiology and clinical features of the current ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, highlight knowledge gaps, and review the public health implications of the current ZIKV outbreak in the Americas. We highlight the urgent need for a coordinated collaborative response for prevention and spread of infectious diseases with epidemic potential at mass gatherings events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multiple alignment analysis on phylogenetic tree of the spread of SARS epidemic using distance method

Science.gov (United States)

Amiroch, S.; Pradana, M. S.; Irawan, M. I.; Mukhlash, I.

2017-09-01

Multiple Alignment (MA) is a particularly important tool for studying the viral genome and determine the evolutionary process of the specific virus. Application of MA in the case of the spread of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic is an interesting thing because this virus epidemic a few years ago spread so quickly that medical attention in many countries. Although there has been a lot of software to process multiple sequences, but the use of pairwise alignment to process MA is very important to consider. In previous research, the alignment between the sequences to process MA algorithm, Super Pairwise Alignment, but in this study used a dynamic programming algorithm Needleman wunchs simulated in Matlab. From the analysis of MA obtained and stable region and unstable which indicates the position where the mutation occurs, the system network topology that produced the phylogenetic tree of the SARS epidemic distance method, and system area networks mutation.

Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-04-29

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

Analysis and Control of Epidemics: A survey of spreading processes on complex networks

OpenAIRE

Nowzari, Cameron; Preciado, Victor M.; Pappas, George J.

2015-01-01

This article reviews and presents various solved and open problems in the development, analysis, and control of epidemic models. We are interested in presenting a relatively concise report for new engineers looking to enter the field of spreading processes on complex networks.

Epidemic spread in coupled populations with seasonally varying migration rates

Science.gov (United States)

Muzyczyn, Adam; Shaw, Leah B.

2009-03-01

The H5N1 strain of avian influenza has spread worldwide, and this spread may be due to seasonal migration of birds and mixing of birds from different regions in the wintering grounds. We studied a multipatch model for avian influenza with seasonally varying migration rates. The bird population was divided into two spatially distinct patches, or subpopulations. Within each patch, the disease followed the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model for epidemic spread. Migration rates were varied periodically, with a net flux toward the breeding grounds during the spring and towards the wintering grounds during the fall. The case of two symmetric patches reduced to single-patch SIR dynamics. However, asymmetry in the birth and contact rates in the breeding grounds and wintering grounds led to bifurcations to longer period orbits and chaotic dynamics. We studied the bifurcation structure of the model and the phase relationships between outbreaks in the two patches.

Age, spreading rates, and spreading asymmetry of the world's ocean crust

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The authors present four companion digital models of the age, age uncertainty, spreading rates and spreading asymmetries of the world's ocean basins as geographic...

Epidemic spreading in multiplex networks influenced by opinion exchanges on vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez-Zuzek, Lucila G; La Rocca, Cristian E; Iglesias, José R; Braunstein, Lidia A

2017-01-01

Through years, the use of vaccines has always been a controversial issue. People in a society may have different opinions about how beneficial the vaccines are and as a consequence some of those individuals decide to vaccinate or not themselves and their relatives. This attitude in face of vaccines has clear consequences in the spread of diseases and their transformation in epidemics. Motivated by this scenario, we study, in a simultaneous way, the changes of opinions about vaccination together with the evolution of a disease. In our model we consider a multiplex network consisting of two layers. One of the layers corresponds to a social network where people share their opinions and influence others opinions. The social model that rules the dynamic is the M-model, which takes into account two different processes that occurs in a society: persuasion and compromise. This two processes are related through a parameter r, r 1 the society tends to have extremist opinions, while r = 1 represents a neutral society. This social network may be of real or virtual contacts. On the other hand, the second layer corresponds to a network of physical contacts where the disease spreading is described by the SIR-Model. In this model the individuals may be in one of the following four states: Susceptible (S), Infected(I), Recovered (R) or Vaccinated (V). A Susceptible individual can: i) get vaccinated, if his opinion in the other layer is totally in favor of the vaccine, ii) get infected, with probability β if he is in contact with an infected neighbor. Those I individuals recover after a certain period tr = 6. Vaccinated individuals have an extremist positive opinion that does not change. We consider that the vaccine has a certain effectiveness ω and as a consequence vaccinated nodes can be infected with probability β(1 - ω) if they are in contact with an infected neighbor. In this case, if the infection process is successful, the new infected individual changes his opinion from

Epidemic spreading in multiplex networks influenced by opinion exchanges on vaccination.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucila G Alvarez-Zuzek

Full Text Available Through years, the use of vaccines has always been a controversial issue. People in a society may have different opinions about how beneficial the vaccines are and as a consequence some of those individuals decide to vaccinate or not themselves and their relatives. This attitude in face of vaccines has clear consequences in the spread of diseases and their transformation in epidemics. Motivated by this scenario, we study, in a simultaneous way, the changes of opinions about vaccination together with the evolution of a disease. In our model we consider a multiplex network consisting of two layers. One of the layers corresponds to a social network where people share their opinions and influence others opinions. The social model that rules the dynamic is the M-model, which takes into account two different processes that occurs in a society: persuasion and compromise. This two processes are related through a parameter r, r 1 the society tends to have extremist opinions, while r = 1 represents a neutral society. This social network may be of real or virtual contacts. On the other hand, the second layer corresponds to a network of physical contacts where the disease spreading is described by the SIR-Model. In this model the individuals may be in one of the following four states: Susceptible (S, Infected(I, Recovered (R or Vaccinated (V. A Susceptible individual can: i get vaccinated, if his opinion in the other layer is totally in favor of the vaccine, ii get infected, with probability β if he is in contact with an infected neighbor. Those I individuals recover after a certain period tr = 6. Vaccinated individuals have an extremist positive opinion that does not change. We consider that the vaccine has a certain effectiveness ω and as a consequence vaccinated nodes can be infected with probability β(1 - ω if they are in contact with an infected neighbor. In this case, if the infection process is successful, the new infected individual changes his

Epidemic spreading in networks with nonrandom long-range interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, Ernesto; Kalala-Mutombo, Franck; Valverde-Colmeiro, Alba

2011-09-01

An "infection," understood here in a very broad sense, can be propagated through the network of social contacts among individuals. These social contacts include both "close" contacts and "casual" encounters among individuals in transport, leisure, shopping, etc. Knowing the first through the study of the social networks is not a difficult task, but having a clear picture of the network of casual contacts is a very hard problem in a society of increasing mobility. Here we assume, on the basis of several pieces of empirical evidence, that the casual contacts between two individuals are a function of their social distance in the network of close contacts. Then, we assume that we know the network of close contacts and infer the casual encounters by means of nonrandom long-range (LR) interactions determined by the social proximity of the two individuals. This approach is then implemented in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model accounting for the spread of infections in complex networks. A parameter called "conductance" controls the feasibility of those casual encounters. In a zero conductance network only contagion through close contacts is allowed. As the conductance increases the probability of having casual encounters also increases. We show here that as the conductance parameter increases, the rate of propagation increases dramatically and the infection is less likely to die out. This increment is particularly marked in networks with scale-free degree distributions, where infections easily become epidemics. Our model provides a general framework for studying epidemic spreading in networks with arbitrary topology with and without casual contacts accounted for by means of LR interactions.

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linda Valeri

Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

Virus Genomes Reveal the Factors that Spread and Sustained the West African Ebola Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

2016-08-09

Ladner, J. T. et al. Evolution and Spread of Ebola Virus in Liberia , 2014--2015. Cell Host Microbe 18, 659–669 (2015). 15. Lemey, P. et al. Unifying...Virus genomes reveal the factors that spread and sustained the West African Ebola epidemic. Gytis Dudas1,2, Luiz Max Carvalho1, Trevor Bedford2...Charlesville, Liberia ., 19University of Sierra Leone, Freetown, Sierra Leone , 20Center for Systems Biology, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary

Spread pattern of the first dengue epidemic in the city of Salvador, Brazil

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Carvalho Marilia S

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The explosive epidemics of dengue that have been occurring in various countries have stimulated investigation into new approaches to improve understanding of the problem and to develop new strategies for controlling the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of diffusion of the first dengue epidemic that occurred in the city of Salvador in 1995. Methods The epidemiological charts and records of notified cases of dengue in Salvador in 1995 constituted the source of data. The cases of the disease were georeferenced according to census areas (spatial units and epidemiological weeks (temporal unit. Kernel density estimation was used to identify the pattern of spatial diffusion using the R-Project computer software program. Results Of the 2,006 census areas in the city, 1,400 (70% registered cases of dengue in 1995 and the spatial distribution of these records revealed that by the end of 1995 practically the entire city had been affected by the virus, with the largest concentration of cases occurring in the western region, composed of census areas with a high population density and predominantly horizontal residences compared to the eastern region of the city, where there is a predominance of vertical residential buildings. Conclusion The pattern found in this study shows the characteristics of the classic process of spreading by contagion that is common to most infectious diseases. It was possible to identify the epicenter of the epidemic from which centrifugal waves of the disease emanated. Our results suggest that, if a more agile control instrument existed that would be capable of rapidly reducing the vector population within a few days or of raising the group immunity of the population by means of a vaccine, it would theoretically be possible to adopt control actions around the epicenter of the epidemic and consequently reduce the incidence of the disease in the city. This finding emphasizes

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations.

OpenAIRE

Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Miller, J. C.; Cox, I. J.; Chain, B. M.

2015-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

2014-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemic...

Epidemic Spreading in Complex Networks with Resilient Nodes: Applications to FMD

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Pilwon Kim

2018-01-01

Full Text Available At the outbreak of the animal epidemic disease, farms that recover quickly from partially infected state can delay or even suppress the wide spreading of the infection over farm networks. In this work, we focus on how the spatial transmission of the infection is affected by both factors, the topology of networks and the internal resilience mechanism of nodes. We first develop an individual farm model to examine the influence of initial number of infected individuals and vaccination rate on the transmission in a single farm. Based on such intrafarm model, the farm network is constructed which reflects disease transmission between farms at various stages. We explore the impact of the farms vaccinated at low rates on the disease transmission into entire farm network and investigate the effect of the control on hub farms on the transmission over the farm network. It is shown that intensive control on the farms vaccinated at low rates and hub farms effectively reduces the potential risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD outbreak on the farm network.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

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Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Effective distances for epidemics spreading on complex networks

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Iannelli, Flavio; Koher, Andreas; Brockmann, Dirk; Hövel, Philipp; Sokolov, Igor M.

2017-01-01

We show that the recently introduced logarithmic metrics used to predict disease arrival times on complex networks are approximations of more general network-based measures derived from random walks theory. Using the daily air-traffic transportation data we perform numerical experiments to compare the infection arrival time with this alternative metric that is obtained by accounting for multiple walks instead of only the most probable path. The comparison with direct simulations reveals a higher correlation compared to the shortest-path approach used previously. In addition our method allows to connect fundamental observables in epidemic spreading with the cumulant-generating function of the hitting time for a Markov chain. Our results provides a general and computationally efficient approach using only algebraic methods.

Epidemic spreading in networks with nonrandom long-range interactions

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Estrada, Ernesto; Kalala-Mutombo, Franck; Valverde-Colmeiro, Alba

2011-09-01

An “infection,” understood here in a very broad sense, can be propagated through the network of social contacts among individuals. These social contacts include both “close” contacts and “casual” encounters among individuals in transport, leisure, shopping, etc. Knowing the first through the study of the social networks is not a difficult task, but having a clear picture of the network of casual contacts is a very hard problem in a society of increasing mobility. Here we assume, on the basis of several pieces of empirical evidence, that the casual contacts between two individuals are a function of their social distance in the network of close contacts. Then, we assume that we know the network of close contacts and infer the casual encounters by means of nonrandom long-range (LR) interactions determined by the social proximity of the two individuals. This approach is then implemented in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model accounting for the spread of infections in complex networks. A parameter called “conductance” controls the feasibility of those casual encounters. In a zero conductance network only contagion through close contacts is allowed. As the conductance increases the probability of having casual encounters also increases. We show here that as the conductance parameter increases, the rate of propagation increases dramatically and the infection is less likely to die out. This increment is particularly marked in networks with scale-free degree distributions, where infections easily become epidemics. Our model provides a general framework for studying epidemic spreading in networks with arbitrary topology with and without casual contacts accounted for by means of LR interactions.

Temporal percolation of the susceptible network in an epidemic spreading.

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Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Macri, Pablo Alejandro; Braunstein, Lidia Adriana

2012-01-01

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity ΦS(t), namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time t, is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time t(c) above which the giant susceptible component is destroyed. As a consequence, in order to preserve a macroscopic connected fraction of the network composed by healthy individuals which guarantee its functionality, any mitigation strategy should be implemented before this critical time t(c). Our theoretical results are confirmed by extensive simulations of the SIR process.

Data driven computing by the morphing fast Fourier transform ensemble Kalman filter in epidemic spread simulations

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Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Cobb, Loren; Krishnamurthy, Ashok

2010-01-01

The FFT EnKF data assimilation method is proposed and applied to a stochastic cell simulation of an epidemic, based on the S-I-R spread model. The FFT EnKF combines spatial statistics and ensemble filtering methodologies into a localized and computationally inexpensive version of EnKF with a very small ensemble, and it is further combined with the morphing EnKF to assimilate changes in the position of the epidemic. PMID:21031155

Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

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Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2011-03-01

We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

OpenAIRE

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2001-01-01

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

A Galaxy Zoo - WorldWide Telescope Mashup: Expanding User Defined Exploration

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Luebbert, Jarod; Sands, M.; Fay, J.; Smith, A.; Gay, P. L.; Galaxy Zoo Team

2010-01-01

We present a new way of exploring your favorite Galaxy Zoo galaxies within the context of the sky using Microsoft Research's WorldWide Telescope. Galaxy Zoo has a fantastic community that is eager to learn and contribute to science through morphological classifications of galaxies. WorldWide Telescope is an interactive observatory that allows users to explore the sky. WorldWide Telescope uses images from the world's best telescopes, including the galaxies of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. WorldWide Telescope provides a fantastic sense of size and distance that is hard to experience in Galaxy Zoo. Creating tours from favorite galaxies directly from Galaxy Zoo aims to solve this dilemma.The incorporation of Galaxy Zoo and WorldWide telescope provides a great resource for users to learn more about the galaxies they are classifying. Users can now explore the areas around certain galaxies and view information about that location from within WorldWide Telescope. Not only does this encourage self-motivated research but after tours are created they can be shared with anyone. We hope this will help spread citizen science to different audiences via email, Facebook, and Twitter.Without the WorldWide Telescope team at Microsoft Research this project would not have been possible. Please go start exploring at http://wwt.galaxyzoo.org. This project was funded through the Microsoft Research Academic Program.

Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa and Beyond

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Oscar G Gómez-Duarte

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Is there a reason to fear that an Ebola outbreak may strike Latin America? The fear may not be unreasonable taking into account the history of epidemics that have affected the American continent since colonization times in 1492. Old World small pox epidemics spread and killed millions of Native Americans north and south from the equator. Imported West Nile virus infections reported in New York in 1999 dramatically spread East to West of the United States. Most recently, Chikungunya virus arrived to Central America in 2013 and has already infected close to 1 million people in Mexico, Central American countries, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyanas, Paraguay, and Venezuela.

A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

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Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

2016-11-01

Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

[Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

Science.gov (United States)

Sabbatani, Sergio

2003-03-01

When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

Epidemic propagation on adaptive coevolutionary networks with preferential local-world reconnecting strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping; Gong Yong-Wang

2013-01-01

In the propagation of an epidemic in a population, individuals adaptively adjust their behavior to avoid the risk of an epidemic. Differently from existing studies where new links are established randomly, a local link is established preferentially in this paper. We propose a new preferentially reconnecting edge strategy depending on spatial distance (PR-SD). For the PR-SD strategy, the new link is established at random with probability p and in a shortest distance with the probability 1 − p. We establish the epidemic model on an adaptive network using Cellular Automata, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by numerical simulations. The results show that the smaller the value of parameter p, the more difficult the epidemic spread is. The PR-SD strategy breaks long-range links and establishes as many short-range links as possible, which causes the network efficiency to decrease quickly and the propagation of the epidemic is restrained effectively. (general)

Oscillations in epidemic models with spread of awareness.

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Just, Winfried; Saldaña, Joan; Xin, Ying

2018-03-01

We study ODE models of epidemic spreading with a preventive behavioral response that is triggered by awareness of the infection. Previous studies of such models have mostly focused on the impact of the response on the initial growth of an outbreak and the existence and location of endemic equilibria. Here we study the question whether this type of response is sufficient to prevent future flare-ups from low endemic levels if awareness is assumed to decay over time. In the ODE context, such flare-ups would translate into sustained oscillations with significant amplitudes. Our results show that such oscillations are ruled out in Susceptible-Aware-Infectious-Susceptible models with a single compartment of aware hosts, but can occur if we consider two distinct compartments of aware hosts who differ in their willingness to alert other susceptible hosts.

Utility and potential of rapid epidemic intelligence from internet-based sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, S J; Chughtai, A A; Macintyre, C R

2017-10-01

Rapid epidemic detection is an important objective of surveillance to enable timely intervention, but traditional validated surveillance data may not be available in the required timeframe for acute epidemic control. Increasing volumes of data on the Internet have prompted interest in methods that could use unstructured sources to enhance traditional disease surveillance and gain rapid epidemic intelligence. We aimed to summarise Internet-based methods that use freely-accessible, unstructured data for epidemic surveillance and explore their timeliness and accuracy outcomes. Steps outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist were used to guide a systematic review of research related to the use of informal or unstructured data by Internet-based intelligence methods for surveillance. We identified 84 articles published between 2006-2016 relating to Internet-based public health surveillance methods. Studies used search queries, social media posts and approaches derived from existing Internet-based systems for early epidemic alerts and real-time monitoring. Most studies noted improved timeliness compared to official reporting, such as in the 2014 Ebola epidemic where epidemic alerts were generated first from ProMED-mail. Internet-based methods showed variable correlation strength with official datasets, with some methods showing reasonable accuracy. The proliferation of publicly available information on the Internet provided a new avenue for epidemic intelligence. Methodologies have been developed to collect Internet data and some systems are already used to enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems. To improve the utility of Internet-based systems, the key attributes of timeliness and data accuracy should be included in future evaluations of surveillance systems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

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Ayaz Hyder

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

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Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

2013-01-01

Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

The Convergence of a Virus, Mosquitoes, and Human Travel in Globalizing the Zika Epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Imperato, Pascal James

2016-06-01

Zika virus infection. How the disease entered Brazil is a matter of conjecture. However, the strain responsible for the epidemic in Brazil and elsewhere in South and Central America is phylogenetically identical to that which caused the epidemic in French Polynesia. The wide distribution of Aedes aegypti, a principal vector of the virus, and other Aedes species has greatly facilitated the spread of the disease. Aedes aegypti is an invasive species of mosquito in the Western Hemisphere that has adapted well to densely-populated urban environments. In addition, male-to-female human sexual transmission has increasingly been demonstrated in the US and elsewhere. In February 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the current Zika outbreak a Public Health Emergency of international concern. On the recommendation of its Emergency Committee on Zika Virus and Observed Increase in Neurological Disorders and Neonatal Malformations, WHO issued a group of recommendations to contain the epidemic. The globalization of the Zika virus was made possible by the widespread presence in various parts of the world of Aedes vectors and increased human travel that facilitated geographic spread. This globalization of Zika follows upon that of West Nile, Ebola, Dengue, and Chikungunya. Its ultimate spread is difficult to predict, but will hopefully be restricted through vigorous preventive measures.

Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

2016-06-01

This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

Status of vaccines for porcine epidemic diarrhea virus in the United States and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

In 2013, porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) emerged in the United States as a rapidly spreading epidemic causing dramatic death losses in suckling piglets. Neonatal piglets are most vulnerable to clinical disease and their only protection is passive immunity from their dam. At the end of the thi...

The GLEaMviz computational tool, a publicly available software to explore realistic epidemic spreading scenarios at the global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quaggiotto Marco

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Computational models play an increasingly important role in the assessment and control of public health crises, as demonstrated during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Much research has been done in recent years in the development of sophisticated data-driven models for realistic computer-based simulations of infectious disease spreading. However, only a few computational tools are presently available for assessing scenarios, predicting epidemic evolutions, and managing health emergencies that can benefit a broad audience of users including policy makers and health institutions. Results We present "GLEaMviz", a publicly available software system that simulates the spread of emerging human-to-human infectious diseases across the world. The GLEaMviz tool comprises three components: the client application, the proxy middleware, and the simulation engine. The latter two components constitute the GLEaMviz server. The simulation engine leverages on the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM framework, a stochastic computational scheme that integrates worldwide high-resolution demographic and mobility data to simulate disease spread on the global scale. The GLEaMviz design aims at maximizing flexibility in defining the disease compartmental model and configuring the simulation scenario; it allows the user to set a variety of parameters including: compartment-specific features, transition values, and environmental effects. The output is a dynamic map and a corresponding set of charts that quantitatively describe the geo-temporal evolution of the disease. The software is designed as a client-server system. The multi-platform client, which can be installed on the user's local machine, is used to set up simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user side. Conclusions The user-friendly graphical interface of the GLEaMviz tool, along with its high level

Effect of individual behavior on epidemic spreading in activity-driven networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzo, Alessandro; Frasca, Mattia; Porfiri, Maurizio

2014-10-01

In this work we study the effect of behavioral changes of individuals on the propagation of epidemic diseases. Specifically, we consider a susceptible-infected-susceptible model over a network of contacts that evolves in a time scale that is comparable to the individual disease dynamics. The phenomenon is modeled in the context of activity-driven networks, in which contacts occur on the basis of activity potentials. To offer insight into behavioral strategies targeting both susceptible and infected individuals, we consider two separate behaviors that may emerge in respiratory syndromes and sexually transmitted infections. The first is related to a reduction in the activity of infected individuals due to quarantine or illness. The second is instead associated with a selfish self-protective behavior of susceptible individuals, who tend to reduce contact with the rest of the population on the basis of a risk perception. Numerical and theoretical results suggest that behavioral changes could have a beneficial effect on the disease spreading, by increasing the epidemic threshold and decreasing the steady-state fraction of infected individuals.

Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

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Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

2000-05-01

We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only

Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion within Small-World Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available To depict the rule of epidemic diffusion, two different models, the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS model and the Susceptible-Exposure-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIQRS model, are proposed and analyzed within small-world network in this paper. Firstly, the epidemic diffusion models are constructed with mean-filed theory, and condition for the occurrence of disease diffusion is explored. Then, the existence and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium for these two complex epidemic systems are proved by differential equations knowledge and Routh-Hurwiz theory. At last, a numerical example which includes key parameters analysis and critical topic discussion is presented to test how well the proposed two models may be applied in practice. These works may provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with epidemic diffusion controlling problems.

Collective effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures and differential rate of transmission on spread of epidemics

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Sagar, Vikram; Zhao, Yi

2017-02-01

In the present work, the effect of personal behavior induced preventive measures is studied on the spread of epidemics over scale free networks that are characterized by the differential rate of disease transmission. The role of personal behavior induced preventive measures is parameterized in terms of variable λ, which modulates the number of concurrent contacts a node makes with the fraction of its neighboring nodes. The dynamics of the disease is described by a non-linear Susceptible Infected Susceptible model based upon the discrete time Markov Chain method. The network mean field approach is generalized to account for the effect of non-linear coupling between the aforementioned factors on the collective dynamics of nodes. The upper bound estimates of the disease outbreak threshold obtained from the mean field theory are found to be in good agreement with the corresponding non-linear stochastic model. From the results of parametric study, it is shown that the epidemic size has inverse dependence on the preventive measures (λ). It has also been shown that the increase in the average degree of the nodes lowers the time of spread and enhances the size of epidemics.

Epidemic mitigation via awareness propagation in communication networks: the role of time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huijuan; Chen, Chuyi; Qu, Bo; Li, Daqing; Havlin, Shlomo

2017-07-01

The participation of individuals in multi-layer networks allows for feedback between network layers, opening new possibilities to mitigate epidemic spreading. For instance, the spread of a biological disease such as Ebola in a physical contact network may trigger the propagation of the information related to this disease in a communication network, e.g. an online social network. The information propagated in the communication network may increase the awareness of some individuals, resulting in them avoiding contact with their infected neighbors in the physical contact network, which might protect the population from the infection. In this work, we aim to understand how the time scale γ of the information propagation (speed that information is spread and forgotten) in the communication network relative to that of the epidemic spread (speed that an epidemic is spread and cured) in the physical contact network influences such mitigation using awareness information. We begin by proposing a model of the interaction between information propagation and epidemic spread, taking into account the relative time scale γ. We analytically derive the average fraction of infected nodes in the meta-stable state for this model (i) by developing an individual-based mean-field approximation (IBMFA) method and (ii) by extending the microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA). We show that when the time scale γ of the information spread relative to the epidemic spread is large, our IBMFA approximation is better compared to MMCA near the epidemic threshold, whereas MMCA performs better when the prevalence of the epidemic is high. Furthermore, we find that an optimal mitigation exists that leads to a minimal fraction of infected nodes. The optimal mitigation is achieved at a non-trivial relative time scale γ, which depends on the rate at which an infected individual becomes aware. Contrary to our intuition, information spread too fast in the communication network could reduce the

The spread of HIV in Pakistan: bridging of the epidemic between populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad R Khanani

Full Text Available In the last two decades, 'concentrated epidemics' of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV have established in several high risk groups in Pakistan, including Injecting Drug Users (IDUs and among men who have sex with men (MSM. To explore the transmission patterns of HIV infection in these major high-risk groups of Pakistan, 76 HIV samples were analyzed from MSM, their female spouses and children, along with 26 samples from a previously studied cohort of IDUs. Phylogenetic analysis of HIV gag gene sequences obtained from these samples indicated a substantial degree of intermixing between the IDU and MSM populations, suggesting a bridging of HIV infection from IDUs, via MSM, to the MSM spouses and children. HIV epidemic in Pakistan is now spreading to the female spouses and offspring of bisexual MSM. HIV control and awareness programs must be refocused to include IDUs, MSM, as well as bisexual MSM, and their spouses and children.

Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolas, Gaëlle; Tisseuil, Clément; Conte, Annamaria; Allepuz, Alberto; Pioz, Maryline; Lancelot, Renaud; Gilbert, Marius

2018-01-01

Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

OpenAIRE

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

2012-01-01

Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using a static, s...

Optimal allocation of resources for suppressing epidemic spreading on networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Hanshuang; Li, Guofeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Hou, Zhonghuai

2017-07-01

Efficient allocation of limited medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic spreading on networks. Based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we solve the optimization problem of how best to allocate the limited resources so as to minimize prevalence, providing that the curing rate of each node is positively correlated to its medical resource. By quenched mean-field theory and heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory, we prove that an epidemic outbreak will be suppressed to the greatest extent if the curing rate of each node is directly proportional to its degree, under which the effective infection rate λ has a maximal threshold λcopt=1 / , where is the average degree of the underlying network. For a weak infection region (λ ≳λcopt ), we combine perturbation theory with the Lagrange multiplier method (LMM) to derive the analytical expression of optimal allocation of the curing rates and the corresponding minimized prevalence. For a general infection region (λ >λcopt ), the high-dimensional optimization problem is converted into numerically solving low-dimensional nonlinear equations by the HMF theory and LMM. Counterintuitively, in the strong infection region the low-degree nodes should be allocated more medical resources than the high-degree nodes to minimize prevalence. Finally, we use simulated annealing to validate the theoretical results.

Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

2012-01-01

Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

Fractal scale-free networks resistant to disease spread

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng; Zou, Tao; Chen, Guisheng

2008-01-01

The conventional wisdom is that scale-free networks are prone to epidemic propagation; in the paper we demonstrate that, on the contrary, disease spreading is inhibited in fractal scale-free networks. We first propose a novel network model and show that it simultaneously has the following rich topological properties: scale-free degree distribution, tunable clustering coefficient, 'large-world' behavior, and fractal scaling. Existing network models do not display these characteristics. Then, we investigate the susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) model of the propagation of diseases in our fractal scale-free networks by mapping it to the bond percolation process. We establish the existence of non-zero tunable epidemic thresholds by making use of the renormalization group technique, which implies that power law degree distribution does not suffice to characterize the epidemic dynamics on top of scale-free networks. We argue that the epidemic dynamics are determined by the topological properties, especially the fractality and its accompanying 'large-world' behavior

El Niño Helps Spread Bartonellosis Epidemics in Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, William K.-M.; Masuoka, Fenny M.; Andre, Richard G.; Chamberlin, Judith; Lawyer, Phillip; Laughlin, Larry W.

The consequences of climate variability on human health, especially for poor and medically underserved populations, have received much attention in recent years. Some of the most severe health hazards induced by climate variability are epidemics of vector-borne infectious diseases. Entomologic studies have shown that insect vectors that transmit diseases, such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue, etc., are sensitive to temperature, humidity wind, and rainfall patterns, and therefore, their abundance is potentially influenced by climate variability. Because of its geographical location, the climate of tropical South America is strongly influenced by El Niño. The episodic outbreaks of various diseases in this region have been linked to the El Niño cycles. Yet, according to a report of the World Health Organization [1999], early results from South American epidemiological studies, which were based on the aggregated national disease data irrespective of the regional meteorological impacts, found no consistent correlation between the El Niño effect with the epidemics of malaria and yellow fever.

Epidemics in Networks : Modeling, Optimization and Security Games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Omic, J.

2010-01-01

Epidemic theory has wide range of applications in computer networks, from spreading of malware to the information dissemination algorithms. Our society depends more strongly than ever on such computer networks. Many of these networks rely to a large extent on decentralization and self-organization.

Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

Science.gov (United States)

Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

2015-01-01

Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

2018-01-01

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

Suppressing epidemics with a limited amount of immunization units.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Christian M; Mihaljev, Tamara; Havlin, Shlomo; Herrmann, Hans J

2011-12-01

The way diseases spread through schools, epidemics through countries, and viruses through the internet is crucial in determining their risk. Although each of these threats has its own characteristics, its underlying network determines the spreading. To restrain the spreading, a widely used approach is the fragmentation of these networks through immunization, so that epidemics cannot spread. Here we develop an immunization approach based on optimizing the susceptible size, which outperforms the best known strategy based on immunizing the highest-betweenness links or nodes. We find that the network's vulnerability can be significantly reduced, demonstrating this on three different real networks: the global flight network, a school friendship network, and the internet. In all cases, we find that not only is the average infection probability significantly suppressed, but also for the most relevant case of a small and limited number of immunization units the infection probability can be reduced by up to 55%.

Cardiovascular disease: A Global Epidemic extending into Sub ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a global epidemic; the prevalence is currently stable in the developed world but is on a rapid rise in the developing world particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the commonest cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Its victims are older in the developed world but younger in Africa ...

The Epidemic History of HIV-1 CRF07_BC in Hetian Prefecture and the Role of It on HIV Spreading in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianjun; Guo, Hongxiong; Zhang, Jing; Liu, Xiaoming; Ayoupu, Aideaierli; Shen, Yuelan; Miao, Lifeng; Tang, Jihai; Lei, Yanhua; Su, Bin

2017-04-01

CRF07_BC is one of the most prevalent HIV-1 strains in China, and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has ever been considered to be a second epidemic center after Yunnan Province in previous studies. Here we use HIV-1 pol gene sequences identified from Hetian Prefecture located in Xinjiang Autonomous Region to reconstruct the epidemic history of HIV CRF07_BC strain circulating in this region. We found that CRF07_BC is the predominant HIV-1 form in Hetian Prefecture, and the estimated tMRCA analysis shows that there is no enough evidence supporting Xinjiang Autonomous Region as a second epidemic center of spreading HIV-1. It may imply that every city may be only a point among the HIV spreading network because of the frequent migration of population in the whole country nowadays.

Rapid qualitative review of ethical issues surrounding healthcare for pregnant women or women of reproductive age in epidemic outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hummel, Patrik; Saxena, Abha; Klingler, Corinna

2018-01-01

This article describes, categorizes, and discusses the results of a rapid literature review aiming to provide an overview of the ethical issues and corresponding solutions surrounding pregnancies in epidemic outbreaks. The review was commissioned by the World Health Organization to inform responses to the Zika outbreak that began in 2015. Due to the urgency of the response efforts that needed to be informed by the literature search, a rapid qualitative review of the literature published in PubMed was conducted. The search and analysis were based on the operationalization of 3 key concepts: ethics, pregnancy, and epidemic outbreak. Ethical issues and solutions were interpreted within a principlist framework. The data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The search identified 259 publications, of which the full text of 23 papers was read. Of those, 20 papers contained a substantive part devoted to the topic of interest and were therefore analyzed further. We clustered the ethical issues and solutions around 4 themes: uncertainty, harms, autonomy/liberty, and effectiveness. Recognition of the identified ethical issues and corresponding solutions can inform and improve response efforts, public health planning, policies, and decision-making, as well as the activities of medical staff and counselors who practice before, during, or after an epidemic outbreak that affects pregnant women or those of reproductive age. The rapid review format proved to be useful despite its limited data basis and expedited review process.

National borders effectively halt the spread of rabies: the current rabies epidemic in China is dislocated from cases in neighboring countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zhenyang; Tao, Xiaoyan; Yin, Cuiping; Han, Na; Yu, Jinning; Li, Hao; Liu, Haizhou; Fang, Wei; Adams, James; Wang, Jun; Liang, Guodong; Tang, Qing; Rayner, Simon

2013-01-01

China has seen a massive resurgence of rabies cases in the last 15 years with more than 25,000 human fatalities. Initial cases were reported in the southwest but are now reported in almost every province. There have been several phylogenetic investigations into the origin and spread of the virus within China but few reports investigating the impact of the epidemic on neighboring countries. We therefore collected nucleoprotein sequences from China and South East Asia and investigated their phylogenetic and phylogeographic relationship. Our results indicate that within South East Asia, isolates mainly cluster according to their geographic origin. We found evidence of sporadic exchange of strains between neighboring countries, but it appears that the major strain responsible for the current Chinese epidemic has not been exported. This suggests that national geographical boundaries and border controls are effective at halting the spread of rabies from China into adjacent regions. We further investigated the geographic structure of Chinese sequences and found that the current epidemic is dominated by variant strains that were likely present at low levels in previous domestic epidemics. We also identified epidemiological linkages between high incidence provinces consistent with observations based on surveillance data from human rabies cases.

Analysis of social network - An approach towards evaluation of spreading of epidemics in randomized social Network.

OpenAIRE

Rasmita Panigrahi; Trilochan Rout

2012-01-01

Classifying nodes in a network is a task with wide range of applications .it can be particularly useful in epidemics detection .Many resources are invested in the task of epidemics and precisely allow human investigators to work more efficiently. This work creates random and scale- free graphs the simulations with varying relative infectiousness and graph size performed. By using computer simulations it should be possible to model such epidemic Phenomena and to better understand the role play...

World-wide online monitoring interface of the ATLAS experiment

CERN Document Server

Kolos, S; The ATLAS collaboration; Mineev, M; Hauser, R; Salnikov, A

2014-01-01

The ATLAS collaboration accounts for more than 3000 members located all over the world. The efficiency of the experiment can be improved allowing system experts not present on site to follow the ATLAS operations in real-time, spotting potential problems which otherwise may remain unattended for a non-negligible time. Taking into account the wide geographical spread of the ATLAS collaboration, the solution of this problem is to have all monitoring information with minimal access latency available world-wide. We have implemented a framework which defines a standard approach for retrieving arbitrary monitoring information from the ATLAS private network via HTTP. An information request is made by specifying one of the predefined URLs with some optional parameters refining data which has to be shipped back in XML format. The framework takes care of receiving, parsing and forwarding such requests to the appropriate plugins. The plugins retrieve the requested data and convert it to XML (or optionally to JSON) format...

Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

2015-06-01

The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

World Wide Web voted most wonderful wonder by web-wide world

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

The results are in, and the winner is...the World Wide Web! An online survey conducted by the CNN news group ranks the World Wide Web-invented at CERN--as the most wonderful of the seven modern wonders of the world. (See Bulletin No. 49/2006.) There is currently no speculation about whether they would have had the same results had they distributed the survey by post. The World Wide Web won with a whopping 50 per cent of the votes (3,665 votes). The runner up was CERN again, with 16 per cent of voters (1130 votes) casting the ballot in favour of the CERN particle accelerator. Stepping into place behind CERN and CERN is 'None of the Above' with 8 per cent of the votes (611 votes), followed by the development of Dubai (7%), the bionic arm (7%), China's Three Gorges Damn (5%), The Channel Tunnel (4%), and France's Millau viaduct (3%). Thanks to everyone from CERN who voted. You can view the results on http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2006/modern.wonders/

Asymmetrically interacting spreading dynamics on complex layered networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei; Tang, Ming; Yang, Hui; Younghae Do; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Lee, GyuWon

2014-05-29

The spread of disease through a physical-contact network and the spread of information about the disease on a communication network are two intimately related dynamical processes. We investigate the asymmetrical interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics, each occurring on its own layer, by focusing on the two fundamental quantities underlying any spreading process: epidemic threshold and the final infection ratio. We find that an epidemic outbreak on the contact layer can induce an outbreak on the communication layer, and information spreading can effectively raise the epidemic threshold. When structural correlation exists between the two layers, the information threshold remains unchanged but the epidemic threshold can be enhanced, making the contact layer more resilient to epidemic outbreak. We develop a physical theory to understand the intricate interplay between the two types of spreading dynamics.

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong [Department of Modern Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)], E-mail: bhwang@ustc.edu.cn; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael [Department of Electronic and Information Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)], E-mail: ensmall@polyu.edu.hk; Zhou Changsong [Department of Physics, Centre for Nonlinear Studies, and Beijing-Hong Kong-Singapore Joint Centre for Nonlinear and Complex Systems (Hong Kong), Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (China)

2010-02-15

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

2010-01-01

It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

Rapid spread of complex change: a case study in inpatient palliative care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipski Marta I

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on positive findings from a randomized controlled trial, Kaiser Permanente's national executive leadership group set an expectation that all Kaiser Permanente and partner hospitals would implement a consultative model of interdisciplinary, inpatient-based palliative care (IPC. Within one year, the number of IPC consultations program-wide increased almost tenfold from baseline, and the number of teams nearly doubled. We report here results from a qualitative evaluation of the IPC initiative after a year of implementation; our purpose was to understand factors supporting or impeding the rapid and consistent spread of a complex program. Methods Quality improvement study using a case study design and qualitative analysis of in-depth semi-structured interviews with 36 national, regional, and local leaders. Results Compelling evidence of impacts on patient satisfaction and quality of care generated 'pull' among adopters, expressed as a remarkably high degree of conviction about the value of the model. Broad leadership agreement gave rise to sponsorship and support that permeated the organization. A robust social network promoted knowledge exchange and built on an existing network with a strong interest in palliative care. Resource constraints, pre-existing programs of a different model, and ambiguous accountability for implementation impeded spread. Conclusions A complex, hospital-based, interdisciplinary intervention in a large health care organization spread rapidly due to a synergy between organizational 'push' strategies and grassroots-level pull. The combination of push and pull may be especially important when the organizational context or the practice to be spread is complex.

Unit 148 - World Wide Web Basics

OpenAIRE

148, CC in GIScience; Yeung, Albert K.

2000-01-01

This unit explains the characteristics and the working principles of the World Wide Web as the most important protocol of the Internet. Topics covered in this unit include characteristics of the World Wide Web; using the World Wide Web for the dissemination of information on the Internet; and using the World Wide Web for the retrieval of information from the Internet.

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Spatiotemporal trends and climatic factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shandong Province, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-Qun Fang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors. Results show a rapid spread of HFRS from its epicenter in Rizhao, Linyi, Weifang Regions in southern Shandong to north, east, and west parts of the province. Based on seasonal shifts of epidemics, three epidemic phases were identified over the 33-year period. The first phase occurred between 1973 and 1982 during which the foci of HFRS was located in the south Shandong and the epidemic peak occurred in the fall and winter, presenting a seasonal characteristic of Hantaan virus (HTNV transmission. The second phase between 1983 and 1985 was characterized by northward and westward spread of HFRS foci, and increases in incidence of HFRS in both fall-winter and spring seasons. The human infections in the spring reflected a characteristic pattern of Seoul virus (SEOV transmission. The third phase between 1986 and 2005 was characterized by the northeast spread of the HFRS foci until it covered all counties, and the HFRS incidence in the fall-winter season decreased while it

World-wide environmental problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wohlers, H.C.

1975-01-01

Man and the physical and natural resources necessary to support him in a civilized society are on a collision course. It is simple to say that man cannot continue to grow in number at an ever-increasing rate without a destructive effect upon the environment. Positive scientific proof for this impending calamity is not now available, yet many indications--sometimes physical and sometimes natural--point toward major world-wide environmental troubles in the near future. A number of environmental problems are described, particularly as they relate to the total world system. A computer model simulating future world-wide environmental trends from 1900 to 2100 A.D. is evaluated and suggested as a major tool for data-gathering purposes to determine the extent of world-wide environmental problems. It is suggested that scientists take an active role in the study of the environment, particularly in relation to man's future on earth

Stability of the spreading in small-world network with predictive controller

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao, Z.J.; Jiang, Q.Y.; Yan, W.J.; Cao, Y.J.

2010-01-01

In this Letter, we apply the predictive control strategy to suppress the propagation of diseases or viruses in small-world network. The stability of small-world spreading model with predictive controller is investigated. The sufficient and necessary stability condition is given, which is closely related to the controller parameters and small-world rewiring probability p. Our simulations discover a phenomenon that, with the fixed predictive controller parameters, the spreading dynamics become more and more stable when p decreases from a larger value to a smaller one, and the suitable controller parameters can effectively suppress the spreading behaviors even when p varies within the whole spectrum, and the unsuitable controller parameters can lead to oscillation when p lies within a certain range.

Effects of behavioral response and vaccination policy on epidemic spreading--an approach based on evolutionary-game dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hai-Feng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Tang, Ming; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-07-11

How effective are governmental incentives to achieve widespread vaccination coverage so as to prevent epidemic outbreak? The answer largely depends on the complex interplay among the type of incentive, individual behavioral responses, and the intrinsic epidemic dynamics. By incorporating evolutionary games into epidemic dynamics, we investigate the effects of two types of incentives strategies: partial-subsidy policy in which certain fraction of the cost of vaccination is offset, and free-subsidy policy in which donees are randomly selected and vaccinated at no cost. Through mean-field analysis and computations, we find that, under the partial-subsidy policy, the vaccination coverage depends monotonically on the sensitivity of individuals to payoff difference, but the dependence is non-monotonous for the free-subsidy policy. Due to the role models of the donees for relatively irrational individuals and the unchanged strategies of the donees for rational individuals, the free-subsidy policy can in general lead to higher vaccination coverage. Our findings indicate that any disease-control policy should be exercised with extreme care: its success depends on the complex interplay among the intrinsic mathematical rules of epidemic spreading, governmental policies, and behavioral responses of individuals.

Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The strength and efficacy of the responses depend upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a ne...

Rapid world modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Little, Charles; Jensen, Ken

2002-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has designed and developed systems capable of large-scale, three-dimensional mapping of unstructured environments in near real time. This mapping technique is called rapid world modeling and has proven invaluable when used by prototype systems consisting of sensory detection devices mounted on mobile platforms. These systems can be deployed into previously unmapped environments and transmit real-time 3-D visual images to operators located remotely. This paper covers a brief history of the rapid world modeling system, its implementation on mobile platforms, and the current state of the technology. Applications to the nuclear power industry are discussed. (author)

Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

2010-03-01

Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

2009-03-01

We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

Spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Sun, Kaiyuan; Chinazzi, Matteo; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Dean, Natalie E; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Merler, Stefano; Mistry, Dina; Poletti, Piero; Rossi, Luca; Bray, Margaret; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Vespignani, Alessandro

2017-05-30

We use a data-driven global stochastic epidemic model to analyze the spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas. The model has high spatial and temporal resolution and integrates real-world demographic, human mobility, socioeconomic, temperature, and vector density data. We estimate that the first introduction of ZIKV to Brazil likely occurred between August 2013 and April 2014 (90% credible interval). We provide simulated epidemic profiles of incident ZIKV infections for several countries in the Americas through February 2017. The ZIKV epidemic is characterized by slow growth and high spatial and seasonal heterogeneity, attributable to the dynamics of the mosquito vector and to the characteristics and mobility of the human populations. We project the expected timing and number of pregnancies infected with ZIKV during the first trimester and provide estimates of microcephaly cases assuming different levels of risk as reported in empirical retrospective studies. Our approach represents a modeling effort aimed at understanding the potential magnitude and timing of the ZIKV epidemic and it can be potentially used as a template for the analysis of future mosquito-borne epidemics.

Business use of the World Wide Web: a report on further investigations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hooi-Im Ng

1998-01-01

Full Text Available As a continuation of a previous study this paper reports on a series of studies into business use of the World Wide Web and, more generally the Internet. The use of the World Wide Web as a business tool has increased rapidly for the past three years, and the benefits of the World Wide Web to business and customers are discussed, together with the barriers that hold back future development of electronic commerce. As with the previous study we report on a desk survey of 300 randomly selected business Web sites and on the results of an electronic mail questionnaire sent to the sample companies. An extended version of this paper has been submitted to the International Journal of Information Management

Collecting behavioural data using the world wide web: considerations for researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhodes, S D; Bowie, D A; Hergenrather, K C

2003-01-01

To identify and describe advantages, challenges, and ethical considerations of web based behavioural data collection. This discussion is based on the authors' experiences in survey development and study design, respondent recruitment, and internet research, and on the experiences of others as found in the literature. The advantages of using the world wide web to collect behavioural data include rapid access to numerous potential respondents and previously hidden populations, respondent openness and full participation, opportunities for student research, and reduced research costs. Challenges identified include issues related to sampling and sample representativeness, competition for the attention of respondents, and potential limitations resulting from the much cited "digital divide", literacy, and disability. Ethical considerations include anonymity and privacy, providing and substantiating informed consent, and potential risks of malfeasance. Computer mediated communications, including electronic mail, the world wide web, and interactive programs will play an ever increasing part in the future of behavioural science research. Justifiable concerns regarding the use of the world wide web in research exist, but as access to, and use of, the internet becomes more widely and representatively distributed globally, the world wide web will become more applicable. In fact, the world wide web may be the only research tool able to reach some previously hidden population subgroups. Furthermore, many of the criticisms of online data collection are common to other survey research methodologies.

Competing spreading processes and immunization in multiplex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Bo; Deng, Zhenghong; Zhao, Dawei

2016-01-01

Epidemic spreading on physical contact network will naturally introduce the human awareness information diffusion on virtual contact network, and the awareness diffusion will in turn depress the epidemic spreading, thus forming the competing spreading processes of epidemic and awareness in a multiplex networks. In this paper, we study the competing dynamics of epidemic and awareness, both of which follow the SIR process, in a two-layer networks based on microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations. We find that strong capacities of awareness diffusion and self-protection of individuals could lead to a much higher epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size. However, the self-awareness of individuals has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. In addition, the immunization of the physical contact network under the interplay between of epidemic and awareness spreading is also investigated. The targeted immunization is found performs much better than random immunization, and the awareness diffusion could reduce the immunization threshold for both type of random and targeted immunization significantly.

Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

Science.gov (United States)

Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2013-10-01

Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

2013-01-01

Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

Perspectives for Electronic Books in the World Wide Web Age.

Science.gov (United States)

Bry, Francois; Kraus, Michael

2002-01-01

Discusses the rapid growth of the World Wide Web and the lack of use of electronic books and suggests that specialized contents and device independence can make Web-based books compete with print. Topics include enhancing the hypertext model of XML; client-side adaptation, including browsers and navigation; and semantic modeling. (Author/LRW)

Consistency in the World Wide Web

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Jakob Grauenkjær

Tim Berners-Lee envisioned that computers will behave as agents of humans on the World Wide Web, where they will retrieve, extract, and interact with information from the World Wide Web. A step towards this vision is to make computers capable of extracting this information in a reliable...... and consistent way. In this dissertation we study steps towards this vision by showing techniques for the specication, the verication and the evaluation of the consistency of information in the World Wide Web. We show how to detect certain classes of errors in a specication of information, and we show how...... the World Wide Web, in order to help perform consistent evaluations of web extraction techniques. These contributions are steps towards having computers reliable and consistently extract information from the World Wide Web, which in turn are steps towards achieving Tim Berners-Lee's vision. ii...

Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katayoun Farrahi

Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

2014-01-01

Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.

2003-01-01

animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess......Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions...

Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

Science.gov (United States)

Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

2015-11-01

Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Changwang Zhang

Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Multi-scale model of epidemic fade-out: Will local extirpation events inhibit the spread of white-nose syndrome?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Reagan, Suzanne M; Magori, Krisztian; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Zokan, Marcus A; Kaul, RajReni B; Barton, Heather D; Drake, John M

2015-04-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is an emerging infectious disease that has resulted in severe declines of its hibernating bat hosts in North America. The ongoing epidemic of white-nose syndrome is a multi-scale phenomenon becau.se it causes hibernaculum-level extirpations, while simultaneously spreading over larger spatial scales. We investigate a neglected topic in ecological epidemiology: how local pathogen-driven extirpations impact large-scale pathogen spread. Previous studies have identified risk factors for propagation of WNS over hibernaculum and landscape scales but none of these have tested the hypothesis that separation of spatial scales and disease-induced mortality at the hibernaculum level might slow or halt its spread. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mechanistic multi-scale model parameterized using white-nose syndrome.county and site incidence data that connects hibernaculum-level susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemiology to the county-scale contagion process. Our key result is that hibernaculum-level extirpations will not inhibit county-scale spread of WNS. We show that over 80% of counties of the contiguous USA are likely to become infected before the current epidemic is over and that geometry of habitat connectivity is such that host refuges are exceedingly rare. The macroscale spatiotemporal infection pattern that emerges from local SIR epidemiological processes falls within a narrow spectrum of possible outcomes, suggesting that recolonization, rescue effects, and multi-host complexities at local scales are not important to forward propagation of WNS at large spatial scales. If effective control measures are not implemented, precipitous declines in bat populations are likely, particularly in cave-dense regions that constitute the main geographic corridors of the USA, a serious concern for bat conservation.

Identifying influential spreaders in complex networks through local effective spreading paths

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiaojie; Zhang, Xue; Yi, Dongyun; Zhao, Chengli

2017-05-01

How to effectively identify a set of influential spreaders in complex networks is of great theoretical and practical value, which can help to inhibit the rapid spread of epidemics, promote the sales of products by word-of-mouth advertising, and so on. A naive strategy is to select the top ranked nodes as identified by some centrality indices, and other strategies are mainly based on greedy methods and heuristic methods. However, most of those approaches did not concern the connections between nodes. Usually, the distances between the selected spreaders are very close, leading to a serious overlapping of their influence. As a consequence, the global influence of the spreaders in networks will be greatly reduced, which largely restricts the performance of those methods. In this paper, a simple and efficient method is proposed to identify a set of discrete yet influential spreaders. By analyzing the spreading paths in the network, we present the concept of effective spreading paths and measure the influence of nodes via expectation calculation. The numerical analysis in undirected and directed networks all show that our proposed method outperforms many other centrality-based and heuristic benchmarks, especially in large-scale networks. Besides, experimental results on different spreading models and parameters demonstrates the stability and wide applicability of our method.

Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

2013-01-21

The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Garza, D.R.; Thompson, C.C.; Loureiro, E.C.; Dutilh, B.E.; Inada, D.T.; Junior, E.C.; Cardoso, J.F.; Nunes, M.R.; Lima, C.P. de; Silvestre, R.V.; Nunes, K.N.; Santos, E.C.; Edwards, R.A.; Vicente, A.C.; Sa Morais, L.L. de

2012-01-01

The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic

Social Distancing Strategies against Disease Spreading

Science.gov (United States)

Valdez, L. D.; Buono, C.; Macri, P. A.; Braunstein, L. A.

2013-12-01

The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, i.e., the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, i.e., the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.

Measuring the potential of individual airports for pandemic spread over the world airline network.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawyer, Glenn

2016-02-09

Massive growth in human mobility has dramatically increased the risk and rate of pandemic spread. Macro-level descriptors of the topology of the World Airline Network (WAN) explains middle and late stage dynamics of pandemic spread mediated by this network, but necessarily regard early stage variation as stochastic. We propose that much of this early stage variation can be explained by appropriately characterizing the local network topology surrounding an outbreak's debut location. Based on a model of the WAN derived from public data, we measure for each airport the expected force of infection (AEF) which a pandemic originating at that airport would generate, assuming an epidemic process which transmits from airport to airport via scheduled commercial flights. We observe, for a subset of world airports, the minimum transmission rate at which a disease becomes pandemically competent at each airport. We also observe, for a larger subset, the time until a pandemically competent outbreak achieves pandemic status given its debut location. Observations are generated using a highly sophisticated metapopulation reaction-diffusion simulator under a disease model known to well replicate the 2009 influenza pandemic. The robustness of the AEF measure to model misspecification is examined by degrading the underlying model WAN. AEF powerfully explains pandemic risk, showing correlation of 0.90 to the transmission level needed to give a disease pandemic competence, and correlation of 0.85 to the delay until an outbreak becomes a pandemic. The AEF is robust to model misspecification. For 97 % of airports, removing 15 % of airports from the model changes their AEF metric by less than 1 %. Appropriately summarizing the size, shape, and diversity of an airport's local neighborhood in the WAN accurately explains much of the macro-level stochasticity in pandemic outcomes.

Effects of rewiring strategies on information spreading in complex dynamic networks

Science.gov (United States)

Ally, Abdulla F.; Zhang, Ning

2018-04-01

Recent advances in networks and communication services have attracted much interest to understand information spreading in social networks. Consequently, numerous studies have been devoted to provide effective and accurate models for mimicking information spreading. However, knowledge on how to spread information faster and more widely remains a contentious issue. Yet, most existing works are based on static networks which limit the reality of dynamism of entities that participate in information spreading. Using the SIR epidemic model, this study explores and compares effects of two rewiring models (Fermi-Dirac and Linear functions) on information spreading in scale free and small world networks. Our results show that for all the rewiring strategies, the spreading influence replenishes with time but stabilizes in a steady state at later time-steps. This means that information spreading takes-off during the initial spreading steps, after which the spreading prevalence settles toward its equilibrium, with majority of the population having recovered and thus, no longer affecting the spreading. Meanwhile, rewiring strategy based on Fermi-Dirac distribution function in one way or another impedes the spreading process, however, the structure of the networks mimic the spreading, even with a low spreading rate. The worst case can be when the spreading rate is extremely small. The results emphasize that despite a big role of such networks in mimicking the spreading, the role of the parameters cannot be simply ignored. Apparently, the probability of giant degree neighbors being informed grows much faster with the rewiring strategy of linear function compared to that of Fermi-Dirac distribution function. Clearly, rewiring model based on linear function generates the fastest spreading across the networks. Therefore, if we are interested in speeding up the spreading process in stochastic modeling, linear function may play a pivotal role.

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

2018-01-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

2015-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

Introduction to the world wide web.

Science.gov (United States)

Downes, P K

2007-05-12

The World Wide Web used to be nicknamed the 'World Wide Wait'. Now, thanks to high speed broadband connections, browsing the web has become a much more enjoyable and productive activity. Computers need to know where web pages are stored on the Internet, in just the same way as we need to know where someone lives in order to post them a letter. This section explains how the World Wide Web works and how web pages can be viewed using a web browser.

Effect of vaccination strategies on the dynamic behavior of epidemic spreading and vaccine coverage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Chao-Ran; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Guan, Jian-Yue

2014-01-01

The transmission of infectious, yet vaccine-preventable, diseases is a typical complex social phenomenon, where the increasing level of vaccine update in the population helps to inhibit the epidemic spreading, which in turn, however, discourages more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, due to the “externality effect” raised by vaccination. We herein study the impact of vaccination strategies, pure, continuous (rather than adopt vaccination definitely, the individuals choose to taking vaccine with some probabilities), or continuous with randomly mutation, on the vaccination dynamics with a spatial susceptible-vaccinated-infected-recovered (SVIR) epidemiological model. By means of extensive Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that there is a crossover behavior of the final vaccine coverage between the pure-strategy case and the continuous-strategy case, and remarkably, both the final vaccination level and epidemic size in the continuous-strategy case are less than them in the pure-strategy case when vaccination is cheap. We explain this phenomenon by analyzing the organization process of the individuals in the continuous-strategy case in the equilibrium. Our results are robust to the SVIR dynamics defined on other spatial networks, like the Erdős–Rényi and Barabási–Albert networks

A Comparison between Two Simulation Models for Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette; Stockmarr, Anders

2014-01-01

Two widely used simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were used in order to compare the models' predictions in term of disease spread, consequence, and the ranking of the applied control strategies, and to discuss the effect of the way disease spread is modeled on the predicted outcomes...... of each model. The DTU-DADS (version 0.100), and ISP (version 2.001.11) were used to simulate a hypothetical spread of FMD in Denmark. Actual herd type, movements, and location data in the period 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007 was used. The models simulated the spread of FMD using 3 different...... areas and 1,000 in low density swine areas, and 1,000 sheep herds. Generally, DTU-DADS predicted larger, longer duration and costlier epidemics than ISP, except when epidemics started in cattle herds located in high density cattle areas. ISP supported suppressive vaccination rather than pre...

Spreading to localized targets in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Ye; Ma, Long; Zeng, An; Wang, Wen-Xu

2016-12-01

As an important type of dynamics on complex networks, spreading is widely used to model many real processes such as the epidemic contagion and information propagation. One of the most significant research questions in spreading is to rank the spreading ability of nodes in the network. To this end, substantial effort has been made and a variety of effective methods have been proposed. These methods usually define the spreading ability of a node as the number of finally infected nodes given that the spreading is initialized from the node. However, in many real cases such as advertising and news propagation, the spreading only aims to cover a specific group of nodes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the spreading ability of nodes towards localized targets in complex networks. In this paper, we propose a reversed local path algorithm for this problem. Simulation results show that our method outperforms the existing methods in identifying the influential nodes with respect to these localized targets. Moreover, the influential spreaders identified by our method can effectively avoid infecting the non-target nodes in the spreading process.

Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis epidemic in São Paulo State, Brazil, 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norma H. Medina

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC infection is highly contagious and can lead to explosive epidemics. In early February 2011, the Center for Epidemiologic Surveillance of the State of São Paulo Health Secretariat (SES-SP in Brazil received reports of conjunctivitis outbreaks from rural areas of the state that subsequently spread statewide. This report describes that AHC epidemic and its etiologic agent. Data from the Ministry of Health Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SinanNet and the SES-SP epidemiologic surveillance system for conjunctivitis, developed to detect outbreaks, confirm the etiologic agent, and carry out control measures, were analyzed. Eye (conjunctival swab samples were taken from patients with clinical presentation of viral conjunctivitis to perform viral laboratory diagnosis. A total of 1 067 981 conjunctivitis cases were reported to the surveillance system for 2011; there was an increase in the number of cases in epidemiologic weeks 6–26 (summer season versus previous years. Most cases occurred in the metropolitan region of Greater São Paulo. Of 93 collected samples, 57 tested positive for coxsackievirus-A24 (CV-A24, based on virus isolation in tissue-culture cell lines, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, and enterovirus sequencing of RT-PCR. The data analysis showed that the fast-spreading etiologic agent of the AHC epidemic that occurred in the summer of 2011 was CV-A24. The AHC epidemic was due to an enterovirus that occurred sporadically, spread rapidly and with great magnitude, and had substantial socioeconomic impact due to the high level of absenteeism at work and school.

Emerging Zika Virus Infection: A Rapidly Evolving Situation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bordi, Licia; Avsic-Zupanc, Tatjana; Lalle, Eleonora; Vairo, Francesco; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; da Costa Vasconcelos, Pedro Fernando

2017-01-01

Zika virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, firstly identified in Uganda and responsible for sporadic human cases in Africa and Asia until recently, when large outbreak occurred in Pacific Ocean and the Americas. Since the main vectors during its spread outside of Africa have been Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes, which are widely distributed all over the world, there is urgent need for a coordinated response for prevention and spread of ZIKV epidemics.Despite clinical manifestation of Zika virus infection are usually mild and self limiting, there are reports suggesting, during the recent epidemic, an association of ZIKV infection with severe consequences, including fetal/newborn microcephaly, due to vertical in utero transmission, autoimmune-neurological presentations including cranial nerve dysfunction, and Guillain-Barré Syndrome in adults. The primary mode of transmission of Zika virus between humans is through the bite of an infected female mosquito of the Aedes genus, but also sexual and blood transfusion transmission may occur. Moreover, a case of non-sexual spread from one person to another has been described, indicating that we still have more to learn about Zika transmission.Biological basis for pathogenetic effects are under investigation. Laboratory diagnosis is challenging since, so far, there are no "gold standard" diagnostic tools, and the low and short viremia in the acute phase, and together with the high cross-reactivity among the members of flavivirus genus are the most challenging aspects to be overcome.

Could viruses contribute to the worldwide epidemic of obesity?

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Richard L

2008-01-01

The prevalence of obesity in children increased rapidly starting about 1980 in both developed and developing countries. Studies of changes in diet and physical activity, television watching, and food advertisements on television suggest that these are not sufficient to explain the epidemic. The pattern of rapid spread is suggestive of an infectious origin. The concept of virus-induced obesity is not new. Eight viruses have been shown to cause obesity in animals and there is evidence for virus-induced obesity in humans. Recent evidence on animal and human adenoviruses suggests that these adenoviruses may infect adipocytes to alter enzymes and transcription factors resulting in accumulation of triglycerides and differentiation of preadipocytes into mature adipocytes. The E4orf1 gene of Ad-36 has been shown to be responsible for the adipogenic effect. It appears that a portion of the worldwide epidemic of obesity since 1980 could be due to infections with human adenoviruses.

The spread and effect of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

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Buvé, Anne; Bishikwabo-Nsarhaza, Kizito; Mutangadura, Gladys

2002-06-08

Africa is the continent most severely affected by the global HIV-1 epidemic, with east and southern Africa in general more severely affected than west and central Africa. Differences in the spread of the epidemic can be accounted for by a complex interplay of sexual behaviour and biological factors that affect the probability of HIV-1 transmission per sex act. Sexual behaviour patterns are determined by cultural and socioeconomic contexts. In sub-Saharan Africa, some traditions and socioeconomic developments have contributed to the extensive spread of HIV-1 infection, including the subordinate position of women, impoverishment and decline of social services, rapid urbanisation and modernisation, and wars and conflicts. Populations in many parts of Africa are becoming trapped in a vicious circle as the HIV-1 epidemic leads to high mortality rates in young and economically productive age groups, and thus leads to further impoverishment. Interventions to control HIV-1 should not only target individuals, but also aim to change those aspects of cultural and socioeconomic context that increase the vulnerability to HIV-1 of people and communities.

Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

2016-09-13

Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

[Effects of the periodical spread of rinderpest on famine, epidemic, and tiger disasters in the late 17th Century].

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Kim, Dong Jin; Yoo, Han Sang; Lee, Hang

2014-04-01

This study clarifies the causes of the repetitive occurrences of such phenomena as rinderpest, epidemic, famine, and tiger disasters recorded in the Joseon Dynasty Chronicle and the Seungjeongwon Journals in the period of great catastrophe, the late 17th century in which the great Gyeongsin famine (1670~1671) and the great Eulbyeong famine (1695~1696) occurred, from the perspective that they were biological exchanges caused by the new arrival of rinderpest in the early 17th century. It is an objection to the achievements by existing studies which suggest that the great catastrophes occurring in the late 17th century are evidence of phenomena in a little ice age. First of all, rinderpest has had influence on East Asia as it had been spread from certain areas in Machuria in May 1636 through Joseon, where it raged throughout the nation, and then to the west part of Japan. The new arrival of rinderpest was indigenized in Joseon, where it was localized and spread periodically while it was adjusted to changes in the population of cattle with immunity in accordance with their life spans and reproduction rates. As the new rinderpest, which showed high pathogenicity in the early 17th century, was indigenized with its high mortality and continued until the late 17th century, it broke out periodically in general. Contrastively, epidemics like smallpox and measles that were indigenized as routine ones had occurred constantly from far past times. As a result, the rinderpest, which tried a new indigenization, and the human epidemics, which had been already indigenized long ago, were unexpectedly overlapped in their breakout, and hence great changes were noticed in the aspects of the human casualty due to epidemics. The outbreak of rinderpest resulted in famine due to lack of farming cattle, and the famine caused epidemics among people. The casualty of the human population due to the epidemics in turn led to negligence of farming cattle, which constituted factors that triggered

Discrete-time moment closure models for epidemic spreading in populations of interacting individuals.

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Frasca, Mattia; Sharkey, Kieran J

2016-06-21

Understanding the dynamics of spread of infectious diseases between individuals is essential for forecasting the evolution of an epidemic outbreak or for defining intervention policies. The problem is addressed by many approaches including stochastic and deterministic models formulated at diverse scales (individuals, populations) and different levels of detail. Here we consider discrete-time SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) dynamics propagated on contact networks. We derive a novel set of 'discrete-time moment equations' for the probability of the system states at the level of individual nodes and pairs of nodes. These equations form a set which we close by introducing appropriate approximations of the joint probabilities appearing in them. For the example case of SIR processes, we formulate two types of model, one assuming statistical independence at the level of individuals and one at the level of pairs. From the pair-based model we then derive a model at the level of the population which captures the behavior of epidemics on homogeneous random networks. With respect to their continuous-time counterparts, the models include a larger number of possible transitions from one state to another and joint probabilities with a larger number of individuals. The approach is validated through numerical simulation over different network topologies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

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Jantien A Backer

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In 2014-2016, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia in West Africa experienced the largest and longest Ebola epidemic since the discovery of the virus in 1976. During the epidemic, incidence data were collected and published at increasing resolution. To monitor the epidemic as it spread within and between districts, we develop an analysis method that exploits the full spatiotemporal resolution of the data by combining a local model for time-varying effective reproduction numbers with a gravity-type model for spatial dispersion of the infection. We test this method in simulations and apply it to the weekly incidences of confirmed and probable cases per district up to June 2015, as reported by the World Health Organization. Our results indicate that, of the newly infected cases, only a small percentage, between 4% and 10%, migrates to another district, and a minority of these migrants, between 0% and 23%, leave their country. The epidemics in the three countries are found to be similar in estimated effective reproduction numbers, and in the probability of importing infection into a district. The countries might have played different roles in cross-border transmissions, although a sensitivity analysis suggests that this could also be related to underreporting. The spatiotemporal analysis method can exploit available longitudinal incidence data at different geographical locations to monitor local epidemics, determine the extent of spatial spread, reveal the contribution of local and imported cases, and identify sources of introductions in uninfected areas. With good quality data on incidence, this data-driven method can help to effectively control emerging infections.

Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

Management van World-Wide Web Servers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Hengstum, F.P.H.; Pras, Aiko

1996-01-01

Het World Wide Web is een populaire Internet toepassing waarmee het mogelijk is documenten aan willekeurige Internet gebruikers aan te bieden. Omdat hiervoor nog geen voorzieningen zijn getroffen, was het tot voor kort niet goed mogelijk het World Wide Web op afstand te beheren. De Universiteit

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm

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Tizzoni Michele

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. Methods We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1 the peak timing of the pandemic; 2 the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3 the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Results Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns, but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Conclusions Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real

Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Joel C.

2009-08-01

The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

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Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

[Spread of Chinese variolation art to the western world and its influence].

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, S; Zhang, D

2000-07-01

Smallpox inoculation or variolation is a great invention of medicine in ancient China. In this paper, we introduced the process of spread of smallpox inoculation technique from China to western world (mainly to England), and reviewed the royal experiment of smallpox inoculation on human being and its influence on the prevention of smallpox in western countries. The spread and practice of smallpox inoculation in western world was an important event in the history of intercommunication between eastern and western medicines, which is worth emphasizing and further studying.

From public outrage to the burst of public violence: An epidemic-like model

Science.gov (United States)

Nizamani, Sarwat; Memon, Nasrullah; Galam, Serge

2014-12-01

This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or activity. Accordingly, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate from the start, the internal dynamics by which an external event is turned into internal violence within a population. Five kinds of agents are considered: “Upset” (U), “Violent” (V), “Sensitive” (S), “Immune” (I), and “Relaxed” (R), leading to a set of ordinary differential equations, which in turn yield the dynamics of spreading of each type of agents among the population. The process is stopped with the deactivation of the associated issue. Conditions coinciding with a twofold spreading of public violence are singled out. The results shed new light to understand terror activity and provides some hint on how to curb the spreading of violence within population globally sensitive to specific world issues. Recent violent events in the world are discussed.

Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Brauer

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects.We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact. In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

Innovation in Science Education - World-Wide.

Science.gov (United States)

Baez, Albert V.

The purpose of this book is to promote improvements in science education, world-wide, but particularly in developing countries. It is addressed to those in positions to make effective contributions to the improvement of science education. The world-wide role of science education, the goals of innovative activities, past experience in efforts to…

Reconstructing a spatially heterogeneous epidemic: Characterising the geographic spread of 2009 A/H1N1pdm infection in England

Science.gov (United States)

Birrell, Paul J.; Zhang, Xu-Sheng; Pebody, Richard G.; Gay, Nigel J.; de Angelis, Daniela

2016-07-01

Understanding how the geographic distribution of and movements within a population influence the spatial spread of infections is crucial for the design of interventions to curb transmission. Existing knowledge is typically based on results from simulation studies whereas analyses of real data remain sparse. The main difficulty in quantifying the spatial pattern of disease spread is the paucity of available data together with the challenge of incorporating optimally the limited information into models of disease transmission. To address this challenge the role of routine migration on the spatial pattern of infection during the epidemic of 2009 pandemic influenza in England is investigated here through two modelling approaches: parallel-region models, where epidemics in different regions are assumed to occur in isolation with shared characteristics; and meta-region models where inter-region transmission is expressed as a function of the commuter flux between regions. Results highlight that the significantly less computationally demanding parallel-region approach is sufficiently flexible to capture the underlying dynamics. This suggests that inter-region movement is either inaccurately characterized by the available commuting data or insignificant once its initial impact on transmission has subsided.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-08

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

2017-09-01

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Surplus men, sex work, and the spread of HIV in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Joseph D; Henderson, Gail E; Wang, Tian F; Huang, Ying Y; Parish, William; Pan, Sui M; Chen, Xiang S; Cohen, Myron S

2005-03-24

While 70% of HIV positive individuals live in sub-Saharan Africa, it is widely believed that the future of the epidemic depends on the magnitude of HIV spread in India and China, the world's most populous countries. China's 1.3 billion people are in the midst of significant social transformation, which will impact future sexual disease transmission. Soon approximately 8.5 million 'surplus men', unmarried and disproportionately poor and migrant, will come of age in China's cities and rural areas. Meanwhile, many millions of Chinese sex workers appear to represent a broad range of prices, places, and related HIV risk behaviors. Using demographic and behavioral data, this paper describes the combined effect of sexual practices, sex work, and a true male surplus on HIV transmission. Alongside a rapid increase in sexually transmitted disease incidence across developed parts of urban China, surplus men could become a significant new HIV risk group. The anticipated high sexual risk among many surplus men and injecting drug use use among a subgroup of surplus men may create bridging populations from high to low risk individuals. Prevention strategies that emphasize traditional measures--condom promotion, sex education, medical training--must be reinforced by strategies which acknowledge surplus men and sex workers. Reform within female sex worker mandatory re-education centers and site specific interventions at construction sites, military areas, or unemployment centers may hold promise in curbing HIV/sexually transmitted infections. From a sociological perspective, we believe that surplus men and sex workers will have a profound effect on the future of HIV spread in China and on the success or failure of future interventions.

The application of GIS and RS for epidemics: a case study of the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in China in 2004-2005

Science.gov (United States)

Zhong, Shaobo; Lan, Guiwen; Zhu, Haiguo; Wen, Renqiang; Zhao, Qiansheng; Huang, Quanyi

2008-12-01

Because of their inherent advantages, Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) are extremely useful for dealing with geographically referenced information. In the study of epidemics, most data are geographically referenced, which makes GIS and RS the perfect even necessary tools for processing, analysis, representation of epidemic data. Comprehensively considering the data requirements in the study of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) coupled with the quality of the existing remotely sensed data in terms of the resolution of space, time and spectra, the data sensed by MODIS are chosen and the relevant methods and procedures of data processing from RS and GIS for some environmental factors are proposed. Through using spatial analysis functions and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) of GIS, some results of relationship between HPAI occurrences and these potential factors are presented. The role played by bird migration is also preliminarily illustrated with some operations such as visualization, overlapping etc. provided by GIS. Through the work of this paper, we conclude: Firstly, the migration of birds causes the spread of HPAI all over the country in 2004-2005. Secondly, the migration of birds is the reason why the spread of HPAI is perturbed. That is, for some classic communicable diseases, their spread exhibits obvious spatial diffusion process. However, the spread of HPAI breaks this general rule. We think leap diffusion and time lag are the probable reasons for this kind of phenomena. Potential distribution of HPAI viruses (corresponding to the distribution of flyways and putative risk sources) is not completely consistent with the occurrences of HPAI. For this phenomenon, we think, in addition to the flyways of birds, all kinds of geographical, climatic factors also have important effect on the occurrences of HPAI. Through the case study of HPAI, we can see that GIS and RS can play very important roles in the study of epidemics.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

2007-06-15

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

Science.gov (United States)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-06-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nekovee, Maziar

2007-01-01

A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

Rapid spread of suicide by charcoal burning from 2007 to 2011 in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ah-Rong; Ahn, Myung Hee; Lee, Tae Yeop; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo

2014-11-30

Despite rapid increase of suicide by charcoal burning within 5 years, little is known about the characteristics of charcoal burning suicide in Korea. This study aimed to examine the trends and risk factors in the spread of suicide using this method. We identified an association between media reporting of suicide by charcoal burning and its incidence. Data on suicide from 2007 to 2011 were obtained from the Korean National Statistical Office. Cross-correlation analysis was used. Increasing incidence of suicide by charcoal burning was correlated with higher education levels, male sex, and the latter half of the year. Victims of charcoal burning suicide were more likely to be young, male, single, highly educated, professional, urban-based, and to die between October and December. Internet reports of suicide via charcoal burning tended to precede the increased incidence of suicide using this method, but only during the early period of the suicide epidemic. Our findings suggest that one episode of heavy media coverage of a novel method, such as charcoal burning, is sufficient to increase the prevalence of suicide by that method even after media coverage decreases. These findings are expected to contribute to the prevention of increasing rates of suicide by charcoal burning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on networks with general infection and cure times

Science.gov (United States)

Cator, E.; van de Bovenkamp, R.; Van Mieghem, P.

2013-06-01

The classical, continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) Markov epidemic model on an arbitrary network is extended to incorporate infection and curing or recovery times each characterized by a general distribution (rather than an exponential distribution as in Markov processes). This extension, called the generalized SIS (GSIS) model, is believed to have a much larger applicability to real-world epidemics (such as information spread in online social networks, real diseases, malware spread in computer networks, etc.) that likely do not feature exponential times. While the exact governing equations for the GSIS model are difficult to deduce due to their non-Markovian nature, accurate mean-field equations are derived that resemble our previous N-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) and so allow us to transfer the whole analytic machinery of the NIMFA to the GSIS model. In particular, we establish the criterion to compute the epidemic threshold in the GSIS model. Moreover, we show that the average number of infection attempts during a recovery time is the more natural key parameter, instead of the effective infection rate in the classical, continuous-time SIS Markov model. The relative simplicity of our mean-field results enables us to treat more general types of SIS epidemics, while offering an easier key parameter to measure the average activity of those general viral agents.

Epidemic Propagation of Control Plane Failures in GMPLS Controlled Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of a dataplane-decoupled GMPLS control plane, when it is affected by failures that spread in the network in an epidemic manner. In particular, we consider network nodes to be either fully functional, or having a failed control plane, or having both...... a failed control and data plane. Through large-scale network simulation, we evaluate the effect of epidemically spreading control plane failures in terms of blocked connections requests and the amount of stranded capacity due to a dysfunctional control plane. Furthermore, we investigate the effect...... of the epidemic and the epidemic spreading intensity. In particular, networks with long epidemic durations do not necessarily result in worst performance in terms of blocked requests and capacity. Also epidemic scenarios, resulting in worst impact on the network availability does not necessarily result in worst...

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

2013-01-01

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annalisa Fierro

Full Text Available Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1 epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI. We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious

How to analytically characterize the epidemic threshold within the coupled disease-behavior systems?. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Cheng-Yi; Ding, Shuai; Sun, Shi-Wen; Wang, Li; Gao, Zhong-Ke; Wang, Juan

2015-12-01

As is well known, outbreak of epidemics may drive the human population to take some necessary measures to protect themselves from not being infected by infective ones, these precautions in turn will also keep from the further spreading of infectious diseases among the population. Thus, to fully comprehend the epidemic spreading behavior within real-world systems, the interplay between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics needs to be considered simultaneously, such that some effective containment-measures can be successfully developed [1-3].

Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

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Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2017-10-01

The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

Virtual plagues and real-world pandemics: reflecting on the potential for online computer role-playing games to inform real world epidemic research.

Science.gov (United States)

Oultram, Stuart

2013-12-01

In the wake of the Corrupted Blood incident, which afflicted the massively multiplayer online computer role-playing game World of Warcraft in 2005, it has been suggested that both, the incident itself and massively multiplayer online computer role-playing games in general, can be utilised to inform and assist real-world epidemic and public health research. In this paper, I engage critically with these claims.

HIV Prevalence Trends, Risky Behaviours, and Governmental and Community Responses to the Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

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Eric P. F. Chow

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose of Review. Numerous studies reported the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM in China. This paper aims to investigate the overall epidemic trend and associated high-risk behaviours among Chinese MSM and to explore the governmental and community responses to the epidemic. Recent Findings. HIV prevalence among Chinese MSM increased rapidly in all Chinese regions in the past decade and disproportionally affected the Southwest China. In addition to the high-risk homosexual behaviours, overlapping bisexual, commercial, and drug use behaviours are commonly observed among Chinese MSM. The Chinese government has significantly expanded the surveillance efforts among MSM over the past decade. Community responses against HIV have been substantially strengthened with the support of international aid. However, lack of enabling legal and financial environment undermines the role of community-based organisations (CBOs in HIV surveillance and prevention. Conclusion. HIV continues to spread rapidly among MSM in China. The hidden nature of MSM and the overlapping homosexual, bisexual, and commercial behaviours remain a challenge for HIV prevention among MSM. Strong collaboration between the government and CBOs and innovative intervention approaches are essential for effective HIV surveillance and prevention among MSM in China.

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999-2009.

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Shobugawa, Yugo; Wiafe, Seth A; Saito, Reiko; Suzuki, Tsubasa; Inaida, Shinako; Taniguchi, Kiyosu; Suzuki, Hiroshi

2012-06-19

Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was -0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak, WSD value changed to be a

Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Valdez, L. D.; Aragão Rêgo, H. H.; Stanley, H. E.; Braunstein, L. A.

2015-07-01

The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of the Ebola virus through Liberia is caused by travel between counties. For the initial months in which the Ebola virus spreads, we find that the arrival times of the disease into the counties predicted by our model are compatible with World Health Organization data, but we also find that reducing mobility is insufficient to contain the epidemic because it delays the arrival of Ebola virus in each county by only a few weeks. We study the effect of a strategy in which safe burials are increased and effective hospitalisation instituted under two scenarios: (i) one implemented in mid-July 2014 and (ii) one in mid-August—which was the actual time that strong interventions began in Liberia. We find that if scenario (i) had been pursued the lifetime of the epidemic would have been three months shorter and the total number of infected individuals 80% less than in scenario (ii). Our projection under scenario (ii) is that the spreading will stop by mid-spring 2015.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

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Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Economic and Social Factors in Designing Disease Control Strategies for Epidemics on Networks

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Kleczkowski, A.; Dybiec, B.; Gilligan, C. A.

2006-11-01

Models for control of epidemics on local, global and small-world networks are considered, with only partial information accessible about the status of individuals and their connections. The main goal of an effective control measure is to stop the epidemic at a lowest possible cost, including treatment and cost necessary to track the disease spread. We show that delay in detection of infectious individuals and presence of long-range links are the most important factors determining the cost. However, the details of long-range links are usually the least-known element of the social interactions due to their occasional character and potentially short life-span. We show that under some conditions on the probability of disease spread, it is advisable to attempt to track those links, even if this involves additional costs. Thus, collecting some additional knowledge about the network structure might be beneficial to ensure a successful and cost-effective control.

Spreading dynamics in complex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A

2013-01-01

Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality. (paper)

Spreading dynamics in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pei, Sen; Makse, Hernán A.

2013-12-01

Searching for influential spreaders in complex networks is an issue of great significance for applications across various domains, ranging from epidemic control, innovation diffusion, viral marketing, and social movement to idea propagation. In this paper, we first display some of the most important theoretical models that describe spreading processes, and then discuss the problem of locating both the individual and multiple influential spreaders respectively. Recent approaches in these two topics are presented. For the identification of privileged single spreaders, we summarize several widely used centralities, such as degree, betweenness centrality, PageRank, k-shell, etc. We investigate the empirical diffusion data in a large scale online social community—LiveJournal. With this extensive dataset, we find that various measures can convey very distinct information of nodes. Of all the users in the LiveJournal social network, only a small fraction of them are involved in spreading. For the spreading processes in LiveJournal, while degree can locate nodes participating in information diffusion with higher probability, k-shell is more effective in finding nodes with a large influence. Our results should provide useful information for designing efficient spreading strategies in reality.

Rapid spread and association of Schmallenberg virus with ruminant abortions and foetal death in Austria in 2012/2013.

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Steinrigl, Adolf; Schiefer, Peter; Schleicher, Corina; Peinhopf, Walter; Wodak, Eveline; Bagó, Zoltán; Schmoll, Friedrich

2014-10-15

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) has emerged in summer-autumn 2011 in north-western Europe. Since then, SBV has been continuously spreading over Europe, including Austria, where antibodies to SBV, as well as SBV genome, were first detected in autumn 2012. This study was performed to demonstrate the dynamics of SBV spread within Austria, after its probable first introduction in summer 2012. True seroprevalence estimates for cattle and small ruminates were calculated to demonstrate temporal and regional differences of infection. Furthermore, the probability of SBV genome detection in foetal tissues of aborted or stillborn cattle and small ruminants as well as in allantoic fluid samples from cows with early foetal losses was retrospectively assessed. SBV first reached Austria most likely in July-August 2012, as indicated by retrospective detection of SBV antibodies and SBV genome in archived samples. From August to October 2012, a rapid increase in seroprevalence to over 98% in cattle and a contemporaneous peak in the detection of SBV genome in foetal tissues and allantoic fluid samples was noted, indicating widespread acute infections. Notably, foetal malformations were absent in RT-qPCR positive foetuses at this time of the epidemic. SBV spread within Austrian cattle reached a plateau phase as early as October 2012, without significant regional differences in SBV seroprevalence (98.4-100%). Estimated true seroprevalences among small ruminates were comparatively lower than in cattle and regionally different (58.3-95.6% in October 2012), potentially indicating an eastward spread of the infection, as well as different infection dynamics between cattle and small ruminants. Additionally, the probability of SBV genome detection over time differed significantly between small ruminant and cattle samples subjected to RT-qPCR testing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

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Datta, Samik; Bull, James C.; Budge, Giles E.; Keeling, Matt J.

2013-01-01

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction. PMID:24026473

Transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in dynamical small-world networks

Science.gov (United States)

Masuda, Naoki; Konno, Norio; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2004-03-01

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical features of the epidemics should be clarified for establishing strategies for tracing, quarantine, isolation, and regulating social behavior of the public at appropriate costs. Here we propose a network model for SARS epidemics and discuss why superspreaders emerged and why SARS spread especially in hospitals, which were key factors of the recent outbreak. We suggest that superspreaders are biologically contagious patients, and they may amplify the spreads by going to potentially contagious places such as hospitals. To avoid mass transmission in hospitals, it may be a good measure to treat suspected cases without hospitalizing them. Finally, we indicate that SARS probably propagates in small-world networks associated with human contacts and that the biological nature of individuals and social group properties are factors more important than the heterogeneous rates of social contacts among individuals. This is in marked contrast with epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases or computer viruses to which scale-free network models often apply.

Damage Spreading in Spatial and Small-world Random Boolean Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, Qiming [Fermilab; Teuscher, Christof [Portland State U.

2014-02-18

The study of the response of complex dynamical social, biological, or technological networks to external perturbations has numerous applications. Random Boolean Networks (RBNs) are commonly used a simple generic model for certain dynamics of complex systems. Traditionally, RBNs are interconnected randomly and without considering any spatial extension and arrangement of the links and nodes. However, most real-world networks are spatially extended and arranged with regular, power-law, small-world, or other non-random connections. Here we explore the RBN network topology between extreme local connections, random small-world, and pure random networks, and study the damage spreading with small perturbations. We find that spatially local connections change the scaling of the relevant component at very low connectivities ($\\bar{K} \\ll 1$) and that the critical connectivity of stability $K_s$ changes compared to random networks. At higher $\\bar{K}$, this scaling remains unchanged. We also show that the relevant component of spatially local networks scales with a power-law as the system size N increases, but with a different exponent for local and small-world networks. The scaling behaviors are obtained by finite-size scaling. We further investigate the wiring cost of the networks. From an engineering perspective, our new findings provide the key design trade-offs between damage spreading (robustness), the network's wiring cost, and the network's communication characteristics.

SPREAD AND PRIMARY MANIFESTATIONS OF ROTAVIRUS INFECTION MORBIDITY IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD

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V. V. Kudryavtsev

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents data on the peculiarities of the rotavirus infection spreading in the Russian Federation and other certain countries. It is shown that morbidity levels depend on both objective (population size and territory density, transmission paths activity and subjective (detectability levels factors. It has been established that children 0-3 years of age are the most susceptible to rotavirus infection. The epidemic process development intensity is higher in bigger cities. Considerable regional and seasonal changeability of circulating rotavirus strains is noted.

Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. Methods We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. Results The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. Conclusions We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial. PMID:21554680

World wide biomass resources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Faaij, A.P.C.

2012-01-01

In a wide variety of scenarios, policy strategies, and studies that address the future world energy demand and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, biomass is considered to play a major role as renewable energy carrier. Over the past decades, the modern use of biomass has increased

Rapid localized spread and immunologic containment define Herpes simplex virus-2 reactivation in the human genital tract.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiffer, Joshua T; Swan, David; Al Sallaq, Ramzi; Magaret, Amalia; Johnston, Christine; Mark, Karen E; Selke, Stacy; Ocbamichael, Negusse; Kuntz, Steve; Zhu, Jia; Robinson, Barry; Huang, Meei-Li; Jerome, Keith R; Wald, Anna; Corey, Lawrence

2013-04-16

Herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) is shed episodically, leading to occasional genital ulcers and efficient transmission. The biology explaining highly variable shedding patterns, in an infected person over time, is poorly understood. We sampled the genital tract for HSV DNA at several time intervals and concurrently at multiple sites, and derived a spatial mathematical model to characterize dynamics of HSV-2 reactivation. The model reproduced heterogeneity in shedding episode duration and viral production, and predicted rapid early viral expansion, rapid late decay, and wide spatial dispersion of HSV replication during episodes. In simulations, HSV-2 spread locally within single ulcers to thousands of epithelial cells in genital epithelium. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00288.001.

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shobugawa Yugo

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012 and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045, but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant. It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an

Novel measurement of spreading pattern of influenza epidemic by using weighted standard distance method: retrospective spatial statistical study of influenza, Japan, 1999–2009

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide resulting in considerable morbidity and mortality. Spreading pattern of influenza is not well understood because it is often hampered by the quality of surveillance data that limits the reliability of analysis. In Japan, influenza is reported on a weekly basis from 5,000 hospitals and clinics nationwide under the scheme of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance. The collected data are available to the public as weekly reports which were summarized into number of patient visits per hospital or clinic in each of the 47 prefectures. From this surveillance data, we analyzed the spatial spreading patterns of influenza epidemics using weekly weighted standard distance (WSD) from the 1999/2000 through 2008/2009 influenza seasons in Japan. WSD is a single numerical value representing the spatial compactness of influenza outbreak, which is small in case of clustered distribution and large in case of dispersed distribution. Results We demonstrated that the weekly WSD value or the measure of spatial compactness of the distribution of reported influenza cases, decreased to its lowest value before each epidemic peak in nine out of ten seasons analyzed. The duration between the lowest WSD week and the peak week of influenza cases ranged from minus one week to twenty weeks. The duration showed significant negative association with the proportion of influenza A/H3N2 cases in early phase of each outbreak (correlation coefficient was −0.75, P = 0.012) and significant positive association with the proportion of influenza B cases in the early phase (correlation coefficient was 0.64, P = 0.045), but positively correlated with the proportion of influenza A/H1N1 strain cases (statistically not significant). It is assumed that the lowest WSD values just before influenza peaks are due to local outbreak which results in small standard distance values. As influenza cases disperse nationwide and an epidemic reaches its peak

Characterizing the rapid spread of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV through an animal food manufacturing facility.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loni L Schumacher

Full Text Available New regulatory and consumer demands highlight the importance of animal feed as a part of our national food safety system. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV is the first viral pathogen confirmed to be widely transmissible in animal food. Because the potential for viral contamination in animal food is not well characterized, the objectives of this study were to 1 observe the magnitude of virus contamination in an animal food manufacturing facility, and 2 investigate a proposed method, feed sequencing, to decrease virus decontamination on animal food-contact surfaces. A U.S. virulent PEDV isolate was used to inoculate 50 kg swine feed, which was mixed, conveyed, and discharged into bags using pilot-scale feed manufacturing equipment. Surfaces were swabbed and analyzed for the presence of PEDV RNA by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR. Environmental swabs indicated complete contamination of animal food-contact surfaces (0/40 vs. 48/48, positive baseline samples/total baseline samples, positive subsequent samples/total subsequent samples, respectively; P < 0.05 and near complete contamination of non-animal food-contact surfaces (0/24 vs. 16/18, positive baseline samples/total baseline samples, positive subsequent samples/total subsequent samples, respectively; P < 0.05. Flushing animal food-contact surfaces with low-risk feed is commonly used to reduce cross-contamination in animal feed manufacturing. Thus, four subsequent 50 kg batches of virus-free swine feed were manufactured using the same system to test its impact on decontaminating animal food-contact surfaces. Even after 4 subsequent sequences, animal food-contact surfaces retained viral RNA (28/33 positive samples/total samples, with conveying system being more contaminated than the mixer. A bioassay to test infectivity of dust from animal food-contact surfaces failed to produce infectivity. This study demonstrates the potential widespread viral contamination of

Survivability Strategies for Epidemic Failures in Heterogeneous Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

2013-01-01

Nowadays, transport networks, carry extremely large amounts of network traffic, and are widely spread across multiple geographical locations. As a result, any possible connectivity failure could directly impact the service delivery of a vast amount of users. Therefore, the network should be able...... protection, path restoration) X[1]X. Hence, assuming sufficient resources, network resilience can be achieved when a single failure occur (e.g. fiber cut). However, when it comes to simultaneous failures such as cascading and epidemic failures, the available solutions are expensive X[2]X. For Generalized...... the network X[6]X[7]X. This paper evaluates the reliability of a GMPLS transport network under epidemic failure scenarios. Thus, the aim is to increase the fault tolerance of the GMPLS technology when simultaneous failures occur impacting a large number of network nodes across an optical transport network...

Epidemics in Complex Networks: The Diversity of Hubs

Science.gov (United States)

Kitsak, Maksim; Gallos, Lazaros K.; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene; Makse, Hernan A.

2009-03-01

Many complex systems are believed to be vulnerable to spread of viruses and information owing to their high level of interconnectivity. Even viruses of low contagiousness easily proliferate the Internet. Rumors, fads, and innovation ideas are prone to efficient spreading in various social systems. Another commonly accepted standpoint is the importance of the most connected elements (hubs) in the spreading processes. We address following questions. Do all hubs conduct epidemics in the same manner? How does the epidemics spread depend on the structure of the network? What is the most efficient way to spread information over the system? We analyze several large-scale systems in the framework of of the susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) disease spread model which can also be mapped to the problem of rumor or fad spreading. We show that hubs are often ineffective in the transmission of virus or information owing to the highly heterogeneous topology of most networks. We also propose a new tool to evaluate the efficiency of nodes in spreading virus or information.

Parallel Epidemics of Community-Associated Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus USA300 Infection in North and South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Planet, Paul J; Diaz, Lorena; Kolokotronis, Sergios-Orestis; Narechania, Apurva; Reyes, Jinnethe; Xing, Galen; Rincon, Sandra; Smith, Hannah; Panesso, Diana; Ryan, Chanelle; Smith, Dylan P; Guzman, Manuel; Zurita, Jeannete; Sebra, Robert; Deikus, Gintaras; Nolan, Rathel L; Tenover, Fred C; Weinstock, George M; Robinson, D Ashley; Arias, Cesar A

2015-12-15

The community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) epidemic in the United States is attributed to the spread of the USA300 clone. An epidemic of CA-MRSA closely related to USA300 has occurred in northern South America (USA300 Latin-American variant, USA300-LV). Using phylogenomic analysis, we aimed to understand the relationships between these 2 epidemics. We sequenced the genomes of 51 MRSA clinical isolates collected between 1999 and 2012 from the United States, Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer the relationships and times since the divergence of the major clades. Phylogenetic analyses revealed 2 dominant clades that segregated by geographical region, had a putative common ancestor in 1975, and originated in 1989, in North America, and in 1985, in South America. Emergence of these parallel epidemics coincides with the independent acquisition of the arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME) in North American isolates and a novel copper and mercury resistance (COMER) mobile element in South American isolates. Our results reveal the existence of 2 parallel USA300 epidemics that shared a recent common ancestor. The simultaneous rapid dissemination of these 2 epidemic clades suggests the presence of shared, potentially convergent adaptations that enhance fitness and ability to spread. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mean field theory of epidemic spreading with effective contacts on networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2015-01-01

We present a general approach to the analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model with effective contacts on networks, where each susceptible node will be infected with a certain probability only for effective contacts. In the network, each node has a given effective contact number. By using the one-vertex heterogenous mean-field (HMF) approximation and the pair HMF approximation, we obtain conditions for epidemic outbreak on degree-uncorrelated networks. Our results suggest that the epidemic threshold is closely related to the effective contact and its distribution. However, when the effective contact is only dependent of node degree, the epidemic threshold can be established by the degree distribution of networks.

Contribution of volcanic forcing to the initiation of the Black Death Epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Fell, Henry; Baldini, James; Dodds, Ben

2017-04-01

The 14th Century plague epidemic, commonly termed the Black Death, coincided with the tumultuous climatic shift from the relative stability of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the initiation of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Plague is predominantly a vector borne disease that is spread through the transmission of the Yersinia pestis bacteria. This bacterium may have originated in the rodent populations of the Tibetan Plateau and later spread rapidly westward though Eurasia after vector transmission to humans. Several studies have determined that Asian rodent and vector populations are highly sensitive to climatic perturbations. The Samalas eruption of 1257 was the largest injection of aerosols in the Common Era and therefore probably had a significant climatic effect. Through a range of proxy records across Eurasia we reconstruct the climate for the period immediately preceding the outbreak of plague. This study investigates the interaction between the Samalas eruption of 1257, the climatic response to the event and the potential effect on the initiation of the Black Death epidemic which shaped population and culture across Eurasia for centuries.

Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-07-07

Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deciphering Dynamics of Recent Epidemic Spread and Outbreak in West Africa: The Case of Ebola Virus

Science.gov (United States)

Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Roy, Parimita

Recently, the 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa was the largest outbreak to date. In this paper, an attempt has been made for modeling the virus dynamics using an SEIR model to better understand and characterize the transmission trajectories of the Ebola outbreak. We compare the simulated results with the most recent reported data of Ebola infected cases in the three most affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The epidemic model exhibits two equilibria, namely, the disease-free and unique endemic equilibria. Existence and local stability of these equilibria are explored. Using central manifold theory, it is established that the transcritical bifurcation occurs when basic reproduction number passes through unity. The proposed Ebola epidemic model provides an estimate to the potential number of future cases. The model indicates that the disease will decline after peaking if multisectorial and multinational efforts to control the spread of infection are maintained. Possible implication of the results for disease eradication and its control are discussed which suggests that proper control strategies like: (i) transmission precautions, (ii) isolation and care of infectious Ebola patients, (iii) safe burial, (iv) contact tracing with follow-up and quarantine, and (v) early diagnosis are needed to stop the recurrent outbreak.

Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

KAUST Repository

Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

2011-01-01

In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

[MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

2009-01-01

It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

2014-01-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

2014-02-01

This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

The World-Wide Web: An Interface between Research and Teaching in Bioinformatics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James F. Aiton

1994-01-01

Full Text Available The rapid expansion occurring in World-Wide Web activity is beginning to make the concepts of ‘global hypermedia’ and ‘universal document readership’ realistic objectives of the new revolution in information technology. One consequence of this increase in usage is that educators and students are becoming more aware of the diversity of the knowledge base which can be accessed via the Internet. Although computerised databases and information services have long played a key role in bioinformatics these same resources can also be used to provide core materials for teaching and learning. The large datasets and arch ives th at have been compiled for biomedical research can be enhanced with the addition of a variety of multimedia elements (images. digital videos. animation etc.. The use of this digitally stored information in structured and self-directed learning environments is likely to increase as activity across World-Wide Web increases.

A case-control study of risk factors for equine influenza spread onto horse premises during the 2007 epidemic in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Firestone, Simon M; Schemann, Kathrin A; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Ward, Michael P; Dhand, Navneet K

2011-06-01

The 2007 epidemic of equine influenza in Australia provided an opportunity to investigate the effectiveness of on-farm biosecurity measures in preventing the spread of a novel pathogen in a largely naive population. We conducted a case-control study of 200 horse premises from highly affected regions of the state of New South Wales (NSW), to investigate risk factors for the spread of equine influenza onto horse premises, specifically, non-compliance with biosecurity measures recommended to horse owners by the relevant animal health authority, the NSW Department of Primary Industries. The study was restricted to cases occurring during the first seven weeks of the epidemic, a period prior to vaccination and the relaxation of some movement restrictions. Case and control premises were selected from a laboratory testing dataset and interviews were conducted with horse owners and managers on premises between July and November 2009. The proximity of premises to the nearest infected premises was the factor most strongly associated with case status. Case premises were more likely than control premises to be within 5 km and beyond 10 km of an infected premises. Having a footbath in place on the premises before any horses were infected was associated with a nearly four-fold reduction in odds of infection (odds ratio=0.27; 95% confidence interval: 0.09, 0.83). This protective association may have reflected overall premises biosecurity standards related to the fomite transmission of equine influenza. Compliance with certain on-farm biosecurity practices seemingly prevented horses on premises in high risk areas being infected with equine influenza during the 2007 outbreak in Australia. In future outbreaks, in addition to broader disease control measures, on-farm biosecurity practices should be adopted by horse owners and managers to prevent equine influenza spread. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.

2003-01-01

animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess...... techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate...... and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected...

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

OpenAIRE

Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

Emergency Medicine for medical students world wide!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perinpam, Larshan; Thi Huynh, Anh-Nhi

2015-01-01

A guest blog from Larshan Perinpam (President of ISAEM) and Anh-Nhi Thi Huynh (Vice president of external affairs, ISAEM) - http://blogs.bmj.com/emj/2015/04/17/emergency-medicine-for-medical-students-world-wide/......A guest blog from Larshan Perinpam (President of ISAEM) and Anh-Nhi Thi Huynh (Vice president of external affairs, ISAEM) - http://blogs.bmj.com/emj/2015/04/17/emergency-medicine-for-medical-students-world-wide/...

WorldWideScience.org: Bringing Light to Grey

OpenAIRE

Hitson, Brian A. (OSTI-DOE); Johnson, Lorrie A. (OSTI-DOE); GreyNet, Grey Literature Network Service

2008-01-01

WorldWideScience.org and its governance structure, the WorldWideScience Alliance, are putting a brighter spotlight on grey literature. Through this new tool, grey literature is getting broader exposure to audiences all over the world. Improved access to and sharing of research information is the key to accelerating progress and breakthroughs in any field, especially science. Includes: Conference preprint, Powerpoint presentation, Abstract and Biographical notes, Pratt student commentary ...

[A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

Science.gov (United States)

Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

1994-01-01

A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

[Facing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Mexico: the response of the health sector].

Science.gov (United States)

Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; López-Zaragoza, José Luis; Valencia-Mendoza, Atanacio; Pesqueira, Eduardo; Ponce-de-León, Samuel; Bertozzi, Stefano M

2004-01-01

To analyze the challenges and accomplishments of the Mexican health system as it faced the HIV/AIDS epidemic over the 20 years since discovery of the virus. A review of the relevant literature was done. The topics revised were: HIV/AIDS epidemiology, the early response of the health system and civil society, prevention and risk behaviors, care and treatment, and financing and resources allocation. In Mexico a rapid initial public response surely contributed to containing any early spread of the epidemic to select populations; whether that spread will continue to be contained is an open question. Sexual risk practices remain high not only among traditional risk populations but also among youth. Even though the epidemic remains concentrated in Mexico, principally among MSM and IDU, only 13% of public HIV prevention funds are directed to key populations at especially high risk of becoming infected or infecting others. In recent years antiretroviral coverage has increased rapidly with funding increasing from 30 to 367 million pesos from 2001 to 2003 and coverage now approaching 100%. Of all health spending on HIV/AIDS in the public sector, 82.4% is spent by the social security institutes and 17.6% by the Ministry of Health. The former provides medical care to about half of PLHA while the latter, in addition to caring for the other half, supports the large majority of prevention expenses. One of the challenges faced by the health system which has largely achieved universal antiretroviral coverage is how to provide quality care with appropriate monitoring, promotion of adherence and recognition and treatment of resistance and adverse effects--without dramatically increasing costs.

Genome-wide study of the defective sucrose fermenter strain of Vibrio cholerae from the Latin American cholera epidemic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Rios Garza

Full Text Available The 7th cholera pandemic reached Latin America in 1991, spreading from Peru to virtually all Latin American countries. During the late epidemic period, a strain that failed to ferment sucrose dominated cholera outbreaks in the Northern Brazilian Amazon region. In order to understand the genomic characteristics and the determinants of this altered sucrose fermenting phenotype, the genome of the strain IEC224 was sequenced. This paper reports a broad genomic study of this strain, showing its correlation with the major epidemic lineage. The potentially mobile genomic regions are shown to possess GC content deviation, and harbor the main V. cholera virulence genes. A novel bioinformatic approach was applied in order to identify the putative functions of hypothetical proteins, and was compared with the automatic annotation by RAST. The genome of a large bacteriophage was found to be integrated to the IEC224's alanine aminopeptidase gene. The presence of this phage is shown to be a common characteristic of the El Tor strains from the Latin American epidemic, as well as its putative ancestor from Angola. The defective sucrose fermenting phenotype is shown to be due to a single nucleotide insertion in the V. cholerae sucrose-specific transportation gene. This frame-shift mutation truncated a membrane protein, altering its structural pore-like conformation. Further, the identification of a common bacteriophage reinforces both the monophyletic and African-Origin hypotheses for the main causative agent of the 1991 Latin America cholera epidemics.

A network model for Ebola spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzo, Alessandro; Pedalino, Biagio; Porfiri, Maurizio

2016-04-07

The availability of accurate models for the spreading of infectious diseases has opened a new era in management and containment of epidemics. Models are extensively used to plan for and execute vaccination campaigns, to evaluate the risk of international spreadings and the feasibility of travel bans, and to inform prophylaxis campaigns. Even when no specific therapeutical protocol is available, as for the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), models of epidemic spreading can provide useful insight to steer interventions in the field and to forecast the trend of the epidemic. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model to describe EVD spreading based on activity driven networks (ADNs). Our approach overcomes the simplifying assumption of homogeneous mixing, which is central to most of the mathematically tractable models of EVD spreading. In our ADN-based model, each individual is not bound to contact every other, and its network of contacts varies in time as a function of an activity potential. Our model contemplates the possibility of non-ideal and time-varying intervention policies, which are critical to accurately describe EVD spreading in afflicted countries. The model is calibrated from field data of the 2014 April-to-December spreading in Liberia. We use the model as a predictive tool, to emulate the dynamics of EVD in Liberia and offer a one-year projection, until December 2015. Our predictions agree with the current vision expressed by professionals in the field, who consider EVD in Liberia at its final stage. The model is also used to perform a what-if analysis to assess the efficacy of timely intervention policies. In particular, we show that an earlier application of the same intervention policy would have greatly reduced the number of EVD cases, the duration of the outbreak, and the infrastructures needed for the implementation of the intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scaling of the propagation of epidemics in a system of mobile agents

OpenAIRE

Gonzalez, M. C.; Herrmann, H. J.

2004-01-01

For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as function of density, temperature and infection time. In addition, we analyze the epidemic threshold associated to a power-law distribution of infection times.

Ripple-Spreading Network Model Optimization by Genetic Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Bing Hu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Small-world and scale-free properties are widely acknowledged in many real-world complex network systems, and many network models have been developed to capture these network properties. The ripple-spreading network model (RSNM is a newly reported complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon on clam water surface. The RSNM exhibits good potential for describing both spatial and temporal features in the development of many real-world networks where the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes and then largely determines the final network topology. However, the relationships between ripple-spreading related parameters (RSRPs of RSNM and small-world and scale-free topologies are not as obvious or straightforward as in many other network models. This paper attempts to apply genetic algorithm (GA to tune the values of RSRPs, so that the RSNM may generate these two most important network topologies. The study demonstrates that, once RSRPs are properly tuned by GA, the RSNM is capable of generating both network topologies and therefore has a great flexibility to study many real-world complex network systems.

Epidemics on interconnected networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2012-06-01

Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

OpenAIRE

Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

2017-01-01

Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

World-Wide Web: The Information Universe.

Science.gov (United States)

Berners-Lee, Tim; And Others

1992-01-01

Describes the World-Wide Web (W3) project, which is designed to create a global information universe using techniques of hypertext, information retrieval, and wide area networking. Discussion covers the W3 data model, W3 architecture, the document naming scheme, protocols, document formats, comparison with other systems, experience with the W3…

The Potential Impact of Up-Front Drug Sensitivity Testing on India's Epidemic of Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kuldeep Singh Sachdeva

Full Text Available In India as elsewhere, multi-drug resistance (MDR poses a serious challenge in the control of tuberculosis (TB. The End TB strategy, recently approved by the world health assembly, aims to reduce TB deaths by 95% and new cases by 90% between 2015 and 2035. A key pillar of this approach is early diagnosis of tuberculosis, including use of higher-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST. Despite limitations of current laboratory assays, universal access to rapid DST could become more feasible with the advent of new and emerging technologies. Here we use a mathematical model of TB transmission, calibrated to the TB epidemic in India, to explore the potential impact of a major national scale-up of rapid DST. To inform key parameters in a clinical setting, we take GeneXpert as an example of a technology that could enable such scale-up. We draw from a recent multi-centric demonstration study conducted in India that involved upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing of all TB suspects.We find that widespread, public-sector deployment of high-sensitivity diagnostic testing and universal DST appropriately linked with treatment could substantially impact MDR-TB in India. Achieving 75% access over 3 years amongst all cases being diagnosed for TB in the public sector alone could avert over 180,000 cases of MDR-TB (95% CI 44187 - 317077 cases between 2015 and 2025. Sufficiently wide deployment of Xpert could, moreover, turn an increasing MDR epidemic into a diminishing one. Synergistic effects were observed with assumptions of simultaneously improving MDR-TB treatment outcomes. Our results illustrate the potential impact of new and emerging technologies that enable widespread, timely DST, and the important effect that universal rapid DST in the public sector can have on the MDR-TB epidemic in India.

Rapid world modelling for robotics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littile, C.Q.; Wilson, C.W.

1996-01-01

The ability to use an interactive world model, whether it is for robotics simulation or most other virtual graphical environments, relies on the users ability to create an accurate world model. Typically this is a tedious process, requiring many hours to create 3-D CAD models of the surfaces within a workspace. The goal of this ongoing project is to develop usable methods to rapidly build world models of real world workspaces. This brings structure to an unstructured environment and allows graphical based robotics control to be accomplished in a reasonable time frame when traditional CAD modelling is not enough. To accomplish this, 3D range sensors are deployed to capture surface data within the workspace. This data is then transformed into surface maps, or models. A 3D world model of the workspace is built quickly and accurately, without ever having to put people in the environment

The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neri, Franco M; Bates, Anne; Füchtbauer, Winnie Sophie

2011-01-01

Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established “percolation...... paradigm” to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased. We use replicated experimental microcosms, in which the ubiquitous pathogenic fungus Rhizoctonia...

Facing Two Rapidly Spreading Internet Worms

CERN Multimedia

IT Department

2009-01-01

The Internet is currently facing a growing number of computer infections due to two rapidly spreading worms. The "Conficker" and "Downadup" worms have infected an estimated 1.1 million PCs in a 24-hour period, bringing the total number of infected computers to 3.5 million [1]. Via a single USB stick, these worms were also responsible for the infection of about 40 laptops at the last EGEE conference in Istanbul. In order to reduce the impact of these worms on CERN Windows computers, the Computer Security Team has suggested several preventive measures described here. Disabling the Windows AutoRun and AutoPlay Features The Computer Security Team and the IT/IS group have decided to disable the "AutoRun" and "AutoPlay" functionality on all centrally-managed Windows computers at CERN. When inserting CDs, DVDs or USB sticks into a PC, "AutoRun" and "AutoPlay" are responsible for automatically playing music or films stored on these media, or ...

Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A.

2012-03-01

Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

Spreading paths in partially observed social networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Christakis, Nicholas A

2012-03-01

Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using static, structurally realistic social networks as platforms for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.

Rapid and recent world-wide diversification of bluegrasses (Poa, Poaceae and related genera.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias H Hoffmann

Full Text Available Rapid species diversifications provide fascinating insight into the development of biodiversity in time and space. Most biological radiations studied to date, for example that of cichlid fishes or Andean lupines, are confined to isolated geographical areas like lakes, islands or island-like regions. Using DNA sequence data of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS for many species of the Poa alliance, a group comprising about 775 C3 grass species, revealed rapid and parallel diversifications in various parts of the world. Some of these radiations are restricted to isolated areas like the Andes, whereas others are typical of the lowlands of mainly the northern hemisphere. These radiations thus are not restricted to island-like areas and are seemingly actively ongoing. The ages of the diversifying clades are estimated to be 2.5-0.23 million years (Myr. Conservative diversification rates in the Poa alliance amount to 0.89-3.14 species per Myr, thus are in the order of, or even exceeding, other instances of well-known radiations. The grass radiations of the mainly cold-adapted Poa alliance coincide with the Late Tertiary global cooling, which resulted in the retreat of forests and the subsequent formation of cold-adapted grasslands especially in the northern, but also in parts of the southern hemisphere. The cold tolerance, suggested to be one of the ecological key innovations, may have been acquired during the early diversification of the subfamily Pooideae, but became significant millions of years later during the Pliocene/Pleistocene radiation of the Poa alliance.

Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

2017-01-01

The unprecedented impact and modeling efforts associated with the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa provides a unique opportunity to document the performances and caveats of forecasting approaches used in near-real time for generating evidence and to guide policy. A number of international...... academic groups have developed and parameterized mathematical models of disease spread to forecast the trajectory of the outbreak. These modeling efforts often relied on limited epidemiological data to derive key transmission and severity parameters, which are needed to calibrate mechanistic models. Here...... changes and case clustering; (3) challenges in forecasting the long-term epidemic impact very early in the outbreak; and (4) ways to move forward. We conclude that rapid availability of aggregated population-level data and detailed information on a subset of transmission chains is crucial to characterize...

Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camila Buono

Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

Selective epidemic vaccination under the performant routing algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Bamaarouf, O.; Alweimine, A. Ould Baba; Rachadi, A.; EZ-Zahraouy, H.

2018-04-01

Despite the extensive research on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the effect of the routing algorithms strategies on the traffic-driven epidemic spreading has not received an adequate attention. It is well known that more performant routing algorithm strategies are used to overcome the congestion problem. However, our main result shows unexpectedly that these algorithms favor the virus spreading more than the case where the shortest path based algorithm is used. In this work, we studied the virus spreading in a complex network using the efficient path and the global dynamic routing algorithms as compared to shortest path strategy. Some previous studies have tried to modify the routing rules to limit the virus spreading, but at the expense of reducing the traffic transport efficiency. This work proposed a solution to overcome this drawback by using a selective vaccination procedure instead of a random vaccination used often in the literature. We found that the selective vaccination succeeded in eradicating the virus better than a pure random intervention for the performant routing algorithm strategies.

Cholera: an overview with reference to the Yemen epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabaan, Ali A

2018-06-22

Cholera is a secretory diarrhoeal disease caused by infection with Vibrio cholerae, primarily the V. cholerae O1 El Tor biotype. There are approximately 2.9 million cases in 69 endemic countries annually, resulting in 95 000 deaths. Cholera is associated with poor infrastructure and lack of access to sanitation and clean drinking water. The current cholera epidemic in Yemen, linked to spread of V. cholerae O1 (Ogawa serotype), is associated with the ongoing war. This has devastated infrastructure and health services. The World Health Organization had estimated that 172 286 suspected cases arose between 27th April and 19th June 2017, including 1170 deaths. While there are three oral cholera vaccines prequalified by the World Health Organization, there are issues surrounding vaccination campaigns in conflict situations, exacerbated by external factors such as a global vaccine shortage. Major movements of people complicates surveillance and administration of double doses of vaccines. Cholera therapy mainly depends on rehydration, with use of antibiotics in more severe infections. Concerns have arisen about the rise of antibiotic resistance in cholera, due to mobile genetic elements. In this review, we give an overview of cholera epidemiology, virulence, antibiotic resistance, therapy and vaccines, in the light of the ongoing epidemic in Yemen.

Virus epidemics can lead to a population-wide spread of intragenomic parasites in a previously parasite-free asexual population.

Science.gov (United States)

Jalasvuori, Matti; Lehtonen, Jussi

2014-03-01

Sexual reproduction is problematic to explain due to its costs, most notably the twofold cost of sex. Yet, sex has been suggested to be favourable in the presence of proliferating intragenomic parasites given that sexual recombination provides a mechanism to confine the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Kraaijeveld et al. compared recently the accumulation of transposons in sexually and asexually reproducing lines of the same species, the parasitoid wasp Leptopilina clavipes. They discovered that within asexually reproducing wasps, the number of gypsy-like retrotransposons was increased fourfold, whereas other retrotransposons were not. Interestingly, gypsy-like retrotransposons are closely related to retroviruses. Endogenous retroviruses are retroviruses that have integrated to the germ line cells and are inherited thereafter vertically. They can also replicate within the genome similarly to retrotransposons as well as form virus particles and infect previously uninfected cells. This highlights the possibility that endogenous retroviruses could play a role in the evolution of sexual reproduction. Here, we show with an individual-based computational model that a virus epidemic within a previously parasite-free asexual population may establish a new intragenomic parasite to the population. Moreover and in contrast to other transposons, the possibility of endogenous viruses to maintain a virus epidemic and simultaneously provide resistance to individuals carrying active endogenous viruses selects for the presence of active intragenomic parasites in the population despite their deleterious effects. Our results suggest that the viral nature of certain intragenomic parasites should be taken into account when sex and its benefits are being considered. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimal information dissemination strategy to promote preventive behaviors in multilayer epidemic networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Shakeri, Heman; Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Scoglio, Caterina; Poggi-Corradini, Pietro; Preciado, Victor M

2015-06-01

Launching a prevention campaign to contain the spread of infection requires substantial financial investments; therefore, a trade-off exists between suppressing the epidemic and containing costs. Information exchange among individuals can occur as physical contacts (e.g., word of mouth, gatherings), which provide inherent possibilities of disease transmission, and non-physical contacts (e.g., email, social networks), through which information can be transmitted but the infection cannot be transmitted. Contact network (CN) incorporates physical contacts, and the information dissemination network (IDN) represents non-physical contacts, thereby generating a multilayer network structure. Inherent differences between these two layers cause alerting through CN to be more effective but more expensive than IDN. The constraint for an epidemic to die out derived from a nonlinear Perron-Frobenius problem that was transformed into a semi-definite matrix inequality and served as a constraint for a convex optimization problem. This method guarantees a dying-out epidemic by choosing the best nodes for adopting preventive behaviors with minimum monetary resources. Various numerical simulations with network models and a real-world social network validate our method.

Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pretre, S.

1991-01-01

The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petter Holme

Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

Propagation of capillary waves and ejection of small droplets in rapid droplet spreading

KAUST Repository

Ding, Hang

2012-03-12

A new regime of droplet ejection following the slow deposition of drops onto a near-complete wetting solid substrate is identified in experiments and direct numerical simulations; a coalescence cascade subsequent to pinch-off is also observed for the first time. Results of numerical simulations indicate that the propagation of capillary waves that lead to pinch-off is closely related to the self-similar behaviour observed in the inviscid recoil of droplets, and that motions of the crests and troughs of capillary waves along the interface do not depend on the wettability and surface tension (or Ohnesorge number). The simulations also show that a self-similar theory for universal pinch-off can be used for the time evolution of the pinching neck. However, although good agreement is also found with the double-cone shape of the pinching neck for droplet ejection in drop deposition on a pool of the same liquid, substantial deviations are observed in such a comparison for droplet ejection in rapid drop spreading (including the newly identified regime). This deviation is shown to result from interference by the solid substrate, a rapid downwards acceleration of the top of the drop surface and the rapid spreading process. The experiments also confirm non-monotonic spreading behaviour observed previously only in numerical simulations, and suggest substantial inertial effects on the relation between an apparent contact angle and the dimensionless contact-line speed. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.

Propagation of capillary waves and ejection of small droplets in rapid droplet spreading

KAUST Repository

Ding, Hang; Li, Erqiang; Zhang, F. H.; Sui, Yi; Spelt, Peter D M; Thoroddsen, Sigurdur T

2012-01-01

A new regime of droplet ejection following the slow deposition of drops onto a near-complete wetting solid substrate is identified in experiments and direct numerical simulations; a coalescence cascade subsequent to pinch-off is also observed for the first time. Results of numerical simulations indicate that the propagation of capillary waves that lead to pinch-off is closely related to the self-similar behaviour observed in the inviscid recoil of droplets, and that motions of the crests and troughs of capillary waves along the interface do not depend on the wettability and surface tension (or Ohnesorge number). The simulations also show that a self-similar theory for universal pinch-off can be used for the time evolution of the pinching neck. However, although good agreement is also found with the double-cone shape of the pinching neck for droplet ejection in drop deposition on a pool of the same liquid, substantial deviations are observed in such a comparison for droplet ejection in rapid drop spreading (including the newly identified regime). This deviation is shown to result from interference by the solid substrate, a rapid downwards acceleration of the top of the drop surface and the rapid spreading process. The experiments also confirm non-monotonic spreading behaviour observed previously only in numerical simulations, and suggest substantial inertial effects on the relation between an apparent contact angle and the dimensionless contact-line speed. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.

Investigation of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic

Science.gov (United States)

Mikkelsen, T.; Alexandersen, S.; Astrup, P.; Champion, H. J.; Donaldson, A. I.; Dunkerley, F. N.; Gloster, J.; Sørensen, J. H.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

2003-11-01

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed domesticated and wild animals. The highly contagious nature of FMD is a reflection of the wide range of host species, the enormous quantities of virus liberated by infected animals, the range of excretions and secretions which can be infectious, the stability of the virus in the environment, the multiplicity of routes of infection and the very small doses of the virus that can initiate infection. One of the mechanisms of spread is the carriage of droplets and droplet nuclei exhaled in the breath of infected animals. Such spread can be rapid and extensive, and it is known in certain circumstances to have transmitted disease over a distance of several hundred kilometres. During the 2001 FMD epidemic in the United Kingdom (UK), atmospheric dispersion models were applied in real time in order to assess the potential for atmospheric dispersion of the disease. The operational value of such modelling is primarily to identify premises which may have been exposed so that the human resources for surveillance and disease control purposes are employed most effectively. The paper describes the combined modelling techniques and presents the results obtained of detailed analyses performed during the early stages of the UK 2001 epidemic. This paper investigates the potential for disease spread in relation to two outbreaks (Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall and Prestwick Hall Farm, Ponteland, Northumberland). A separate paper (Gloster et al., 2002) provides a more detailed analysis of the airborne disease transmission in the vicinity of Burnside Farm. The combined results are consistent with airborne transmission of disease to livestock in the Heddon-on-the-Wall area. Local topography may have played a significant role in influencing the pattern of disease spread.

World Wide Web Homepage Design.

Science.gov (United States)

Tillman, Michael L.

This paper examines hypermedia design and draws conclusions about how educational research and theory applies to various aspects of World Wide Web (WWW) homepage design. "Hypermedia" is defined as any collection of information which may be textual, graphical, visual, or auditory in nature and which may be accessed via a nonlinear route.…

The World Wide Web of War

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Smith, Craig A

2006-01-01

Modern communications, combined with the near instantaneous publication of information on the World Wide Web, are providing the means to dramatically affect the pursuit, conduct, and public opinion of war on both sides...

U.S. Geological Survey World Wide Web Information

Science.gov (United States)

,

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) invites you to explore an earth science virtual library of digital information, publications, and data. The USGS World Wide Web sites offer an array of information that reflects scientific research and monitoring programs conducted in the areas of natural hazards, environmental resources, and cartography. This list provides gateways to access a cross section of the digital information on the USGS World Wide Web sites.

Synergy in spreading processes: from exploitative to explorative foraging strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Reche, Francisco J; Ludlam, Jonathan J; Taraskin, Sergei N; Gilligan, Christopher A

2011-05-27

An epidemiological model which incorporates synergistic effects that allow the infectivity and/or susceptibility of hosts to be dependent on the number of infected neighbors is proposed. Constructive synergy induces an exploitative behavior which results in a rapid invasion that infects a large number of hosts. Interfering synergy leads to a slower and sparser explorative foraging strategy that traverses larger distances by infecting fewer hosts. The model can be mapped to a dynamical bond percolation with spatial correlations that affect the mechanism of spread but do not influence the critical behavior of epidemics. © 2011 American Physical Society

Ebola epidemic of 2014-2015: unresolved ethical issues.

Science.gov (United States)

Garbuglia, Anna Rosa

2016-01-01

Some ethical aspects of the management of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone which started in January 2014, have been questionable. First, as regards the prevention of the spread of the virus, the necessary epidemiological investigations on the origin of the infection were not carried out adequately and this did not help to curb the spread of the disease. A disparity has been observed between the western and African countries' access to the treatment of patients; this infringes on the principle of equality. This paper also focuses on how the Global Public Goods for Health principle was not fully respected in the management of the epidemic.

Going Multi-viral: Synthedemic Modelling of Internet-based Spreading Phenomena

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marily Nika

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Epidemics of a biological and technological nature pervade modern life. For centuries, scientific research focused on biological epidemics, with simple compartmental epidemiological models emerging as the dominant explanatory paradigm. Yet there has been limited translation of this effort to explain internet-based spreading phenomena. Indeed, single-epidemic models are inadequate to explain the multimodal nature of complex phenomena. In this paper we propose a novel paradigm for modelling internet-based spreading phenomena based on the composition of multiple compartmental epidemiological models. Our approach is inspired by Fourier analysis, but rather than trigonometric wave forms, our components are compartmental epidemiological models. We show results on simulated multiple epidemic data, swine flu data and BitTorrent downloads of a popular music artist. Our technique can characterise these multimodal data sets utilising a parsimonous number of subepidemic models.

Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

2009-01-01

We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

The HIV epidemic in Greenland - a slow spreading infection among adult heterosexual Greenlanders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørn-Mortensen, Karen; Ladefoged, Karin; Obel, Niels

2013-01-01

We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths.......We aimed to characterise the HIV epidemic in Greenland and to determine incidence, prevalence, mortality rates (MR) and specific causes of deaths....

Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

2009-01-01

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

Playing with the internet through world wide web

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Seon Tae; Jang, Jin Seok

1995-07-01

This book describes how to use the internet with world wide web. It is divided into six chapters, which are Let's go to the internet ocean, the internet in information superhighway are, connecting the world with a telephone wire such as link with the internet cable and telephone modem, internet service providers, text mode connection, Domain and IP address, the principle and use of world wide web ; business, music, fashion, movie and photo, internet news and e-mail, making internet map with web language, and from installation to application of base program such as TCP/IP, SLIP/PPP 3270 Emulator, Finger and NCSA Mosaic.

Control of African swine fever epidemics in industrialized swine populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Bøtner, Anette; Mortensen, Sten

2016-01-01

, it is important to explore strategies that can effectively control an epidemic of ASF. In this study, the epidemiological and economic effects of strategies to control the spread of ASF between domestic swine herds were examined using a published model (DTU-DADS-ASF). The control strategies were the basic EU...... and national strategy (Basic), the basic strategy plus pre-emptive depopulation of neighboring swine herds, and intensive surveillance of herds in the control zones, including testing live or dead animals. Virus spread via wild boar was not modelled. Under the basic control strategy, the median epidemic......African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease with a high impact on swine health. The disease is endemic in certain regions in the Baltic countries and has spread to Poland constituting a risk of ASF spread toward Western Europe. Therefore, as part of contingency planning...

Reverse-feeding effect of epidemic by propagators in two-layered networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu Dayu; Zhao Yanping; Zheng Muhua; Zhou Jie; Liu Zonghua

2016-01-01

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and is currently focused on the spreading of multiple pathogens, especially in multiplex networks. However, little attention has been paid to the case where the mutual influence between different pathogens comes from a fraction of epidemic propagators, such as bisexual people in two separated groups of heterosexual and homosexual people. We here study this topic by presenting a network model of two layers connected by impulsive links, in contrast to the persistent links in each layer. We let each layer have a distinct pathogen and their interactive infection is implemented by a fraction of propagators jumping between the corresponding pairs of nodes in the two layers. By this model we show that (i) the propagators take the key role to transmit pathogens from one layer to the other, which significantly influences the stabilized epidemics; (ii) the epidemic thresholds will be changed by the propagators; and (iii) a reverse-feeding effect can be expected when the infective rate is smaller than its threshold of isolated spreading. A theoretical analysis is presented to explain the numerical results. (paper)

The World Wide Web: A Web Even a Fly Would Love

Science.gov (United States)

Bryson, E.

Ever since my introduction to the World Wide Web (WWW), it's been love at first byte. Searching on the WWW is similar to being able to go to a public library and allow yourself to be transported to any other book or library around the world by looking at a reference or index and clicking your heels together like Dorothy did in "The Wizard of Oz", only the clicking is done with a computer mouse. During this presentation, we will explore the WWW protocols which allow clients and servers to communicate on the Internet. We will demonstrate the ease with which users can navigate the virtual tidal wave of information available with a mere click of a button. In addition, the workshop will discuss the revolutionary aspects of this network information system and how it's impacting our libraries as a primary mechanism for rapid dissemination of knowledge.

[Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

Science.gov (United States)

Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

2012-01-01

Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus infection: Etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis and immunoprophylaxis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Kwonil; Saif, Linda J

2015-05-01

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), a member of the genera Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae, causes acute diarrhea/vomiting, dehydration and high mortality in seronegative neonatal piglets. For the last three decades, PEDV infection has resulted in significant economic losses in the European and Asian pig industries, but in 2013-2014 the disease was also reported in the US, Canada and Mexico. The PED epidemic in the US, from April 2013 to the present, has led to the loss of more than 10% of the US pig population. The disappearance and re-emergence of epidemic PED indicates that the virus is able to escape from current vaccination protocols, biosecurity and control systems. Endemic PED is a significant problem, which is exacerbated by the emergence (or potential importation) of multiple PEDV variants. Epidemic PEDV strains spread rapidly and cause a high number of pig deaths. These strains are highly enteropathogenic and acutely infect villous epithelial cells of the entire small and large intestines although the jejunum and ileum are the primary sites. PEDV infections cause acute, severe atrophic enteritis accompanied by viremia that leads to profound diarrhea and vomiting, followed by extensive dehydration, which is the major cause of death in nursing piglets. A comprehensive understanding of the pathogenic characteristics of epidemic or endemic PEDV strains is needed to prevent and control the disease in affected regions and to develop an effective vaccine. This review focuses on the etiology, epidemiology, disease mechanisms and pathogenesis as well as immunoprophylaxis against PEDV infection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

KAUST Repository

Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

2016-01-01

with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states

A chaotic model for the epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa (2013-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Peyre, Marisa; Huc, Mireille

2016-11-01

An epidemic of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) broke out in Guinea in December 2013. It was only identified in March 2014 while it had already spread out in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The spill over of the disease became uncontrollable and the epidemic could not be stopped before 2016. The time evolution of this epidemic is revisited here with the global modeling technique which was designed to obtain the deterministic models from single time series. A generalized formulation of this technique for multivariate time series is introduced. It is applied to the epidemic of EVD in West Africa focusing on the period between March 2014 and January 2015, that is, before any detected signs of weakening. Data gathered by the World Health Organization, based on the official publications of the Ministries of Health of the three main countries involved in this epidemic, are considered in our analysis. Two observed time series are used: the daily numbers of infections and deaths. A four-dimensional model producing a very complex dynamical behavior is obtained. The model is tested in order to investigate its skills and drawbacks. Our global analysis clearly helps to distinguish three main stages during the epidemic. A characterization of the obtained attractor is also performed. In particular, the topology of the chaotic attractor is analyzed and a skeleton is obtained for its structure.

Impact of delay on disease outbreak in a spatial epidemic model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xia-Xia; Wang, Jian-Zhong

2015-04-01

One of the central issues in studying epidemic spreading is the mechanism on disease outbreak. In this paper, we investigate the effects of time delay on disease outbreak in spatial epidemics based on a reaction-diffusion model. By mathematical analysis and numerical simulations, we show that when time delay is more than a critical value, the disease outbreaks. The obtained results show that the time delay is an important factor in the spread of the disease, which may provide new insights on disease control.

Can epidemics be non-communicable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

2015-01-01

This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

Risk maps for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gert Jan Boender

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.

Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

Mateus, Ana LP; Otete, Harmony E; Beck, Charles R; Dolan, Gayle P; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S

2014-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of internal and international travel restrictions in the rapid containment of influenza. Methods We conducted a systematic review according to the requirements of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Health-care databases and grey literature were searched and screened for records published before May 2014. Data extraction and assessments of risk of bias were undertaken by two researchers independently. Results were synthesized in a narrative form. Findings The overall risk of bias in the 23 included studies was low to moderate. Internal travel restrictions and international border restrictions delayed the spread of influenza epidemics by one week and two months, respectively. International travel restrictions delayed the spread and peak of epidemics by periods varying between a few days and four months. Travel restrictions reduced the incidence of new cases by less than 3%. Impact was reduced when restrictions were implemented more than six weeks after the notification of epidemics or when the level of transmissibility was high. Travel restrictions would have minimal impact in urban centres with dense populations and travel networks. We found no evidence that travel restrictions would contain influenza within a defined geographical area. Conclusion Extensive travel restrictions may delay the dissemination of influenza but cannot prevent it. The evidence does not support travel restrictions as an isolated intervention for the rapid containment of influenza. Travel restrictions would make an extremely limited contribution to any policy for rapid containment of influenza at source during the first emergence of a pandemic virus. PMID:25552771

Network Performance Improvement under Epidemic Failures in Optical Transport Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

2013-01-01

In this paper we investigate epidemic failure spreading in large- scale GMPLS-controlled transport networks. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network, we design several strategies for cost-effective network performance improvement via differentiated repair times....... First we identify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive simulations we show that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly assigning lower repair times among the network nodes. Our OPNET simulation...... model can be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost- effective network survivability design....

GeoCENS: a geospatial cyberinfrastructure for the world-wide sensor web.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Steve H L; Huang, Chih-Yuan

2013-10-02

The world-wide sensor web has become a very useful technique for monitoring the physical world at spatial and temporal scales that were previously impossible. Yet we believe that the full potential of sensor web has thus far not been revealed. In order to harvest the world-wide sensor web's full potential, a geospatial cyberinfrastructure is needed to store, process, and deliver large amount of sensor data collected worldwide. In this paper, we first define the issue of the sensor web long tail followed by our view of the world-wide sensor web architecture. Then, we introduce the Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Environmental Sensing (GeoCENS) architecture and explain each of its components. Finally, with demonstration of three real-world powered-by-GeoCENS sensor web applications, we believe that the GeoCENS architecture can successfully address the sensor web long tail issue and consequently realize the world-wide sensor web vision.

Use of World Wide Web and NCSA Mcsaic at Langley

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Michael

1994-01-01

A brief history of the use of the World Wide Web at Langley Research Center is presented along with architecture of the Langley Web. Benefits derived from the Web and some Langley projects that have employed the World Wide Web are discussed.

OmpU as a biomarker for rapid discrimination between toxigenic and epidemic Vibrio cholerae O1/O139 and non-epidemic Vibrio cholerae in a modified MALDI-TOF MS assay

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paauw, A.; Trip, H.; Niemcewicz, M.; Sellek, R.; Heng, J.M.E.; Mars-Groenendijk, R.H.; Jong, A.L. de; Majchrzykiewicz-Koehorst, J.A.; Olsen, J.S.; Tsivtsivadze, E.

2014-01-01

Background Cholera is an acute diarrheal disease caused by Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks are caused by a genetically homogenous group of strains from serogroup O1 or O139 that are able to produce the cholera toxin. Rapid detection and identification of these epidemic strains is essential for an

Disease properties, geography, and mitigation strategies in a simulation spread of rinderpest across the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manore Carrie

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract For the past decade, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has been working toward eradicating rinderpest through vaccination and intense surveillance by 2012. Because of the potential severity of a rinderpest epidemic, it is prudent to prepare for an unexpected outbreak in animal populations. There is no immunity to the disease among the livestock or wildlife in the United States (US. If rinderpest were to emerge in the US, the loss in livestock could be devastating. We predict the potential spread of rinderpest using a two-stage model for the spread of a multi-host infectious disease among agricultural animals in the US. The model incorporates large-scale interactions among US counties and the small-scale dynamics of disease spread within a county. The model epidemic was seeded in 16 locations and there was a strong dependence of the overall epidemic size on the starting location. The epidemics were classified according to overall size into small epidemics of 100 to 300 animals (failed epidemics, epidemics infecting 3 000 to 30 000 animals (medium epidemics, and the large epidemics infecting around one million beef cattle. The size of the rinderpest epidemics were directly related to the origin of the disease and whether or not the disease moved into certain key counties in high-livestock-density areas of the US. The epidemic size also depended upon response time and effectiveness of movement controls.

Statistical survey of widely spread out solar electron events observed with STEREO and ACE with special attention to anisotropies

Science.gov (United States)

Dresing, N.; Gómez-Herrero, R.; Heber, B.; Klassen, A.; Malandraki, O.; Dröge, W.; Kartavykh, Y.

2014-07-01

Context. In February 2011, the two STEREO spacecrafts reached a separation of 180 degrees in longitude, offering a complete view of the Sun for the first time ever. When the full Sun surface is visible, source active regions of solar energetic particle (SEP) events can be identified unambiguously. STEREO, in combination with near-Earth observatories such as ACE or SOHO, provides three well separated viewpoints, which build an unprecedented platform from which to investigate the longitudinal variations of SEP events. Aims: We show an ensemble of SEP events that were observed between 2009 and mid-2013 by at least two spacecrafts and show a remarkably wide particle spread in longitude (wide-spread events). The main selection criterion for these events was a longitudinal separation of at least 80 degrees between active region and spacecraft magnetic footpoint for the widest separated spacecraft. We investigate the events statistically in terms of peak intensities, onset delays, and rise times, and determine the spread of the longitudinal events, which is the range filled by SEPs during the events. Energetic electron anisotropies are investigated to distinguish the source and transport mechanisms that lead to the observed wide particle spreads. Methods: According to the anisotropy distributions, we divided the events into three classes depending on different source and transport scenarios. One potential mechanism for wide-spread events is efficient perpendicular transport in the interplanetary medium that competes with another scenario, which is a wide particle spread that occurs close to the Sun. In the latter case, the observations at 1 AU during the early phase of the events are expected to show significant anisotropies because of the wide injection range at the Sun and particle-focusing during the outward propagation, while in the first case only low anisotropies are anticipated. Results: We find events for both of these scenarios in our sample that match the

Risk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease spread due to sole occupancy authorities and linked cattle holdings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard J Orton

Full Text Available Livestock movements in Great Britain are well recorded, have been extensively analysed with respect to their role in disease spread, and have been used in real time to advise governments on the control of infectious diseases. Typically, livestock holdings are treated as distinct entities that must observe movement standstills upon receipt of livestock, and must report livestock movements. However, there are currently two dispensations that can exempt holdings from either observing standstills or reporting movements, namely the Sole Occupancy Authority (SOA and Cattle Tracing System (CTS Links, respectively. In this report we have used a combination of data analyses and computational modelling to investigate the usage and potential impact of such linked holdings on the size of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD epidemic. Our analyses show that although SOAs are abundant, their dynamics appear relatively stagnant. The number of CTS Links is also abundant, and increasing rapidly. Although most linked holdings are only involved in a single CTS Link, some holdings are involved in numerous links that can be amalgamated to form "CTS Chains" which can be both large and geographically dispersed. Our model predicts that under a worst case scenario of "one infected - all infected", SOAs do pose a risk of increasing the size (in terms of number of infected holdings of a FMD epidemic, but this increase is mainly due to intra-SOA infection spread events. Furthermore, although SOAs do increase the geographic spread of an epidemic, this increase is predominantly local. Whereas, CTS Chains pose a risk of increasing both the size and the geographical spread of the disease substantially, under a worse case scenario. Our results highlight the need for further investigations into whether CTS Chains are transmission chains, and also investigations into intra-SOA movements and livestock distributions due to the lack of current data.

Reverse-feeding effect of epidemic by propagators in two-layered networks

Science.gov (United States)

Dayu, Wu; Yanping, Zhao; Muhua, Zheng; Jie, Zhou; Zonghua, Liu

2016-02-01

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and is currently focused on the spreading of multiple pathogens, especially in multiplex networks. However, little attention has been paid to the case where the mutual influence between different pathogens comes from a fraction of epidemic propagators, such as bisexual people in two separated groups of heterosexual and homosexual people. We here study this topic by presenting a network model of two layers connected by impulsive links, in contrast to the persistent links in each layer. We let each layer have a distinct pathogen and their interactive infection is implemented by a fraction of propagators jumping between the corresponding pairs of nodes in the two layers. By this model we show that (i) the propagators take the key role to transmit pathogens from one layer to the other, which significantly influences the stabilized epidemics; (ii) the epidemic thresholds will be changed by the propagators; and (iii) a reverse-feeding effect can be expected when the infective rate is smaller than its threshold of isolated spreading. A theoretical analysis is presented to explain the numerical results. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11135001, 11375066, and 11405059) and the National Basic Key Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB834100).

[Chikungunya, La Réunion and Mayotte, 2005-2006: an epidemic without a story?].

Science.gov (United States)

Flahault, Antoine; Aumont, Gilles; Boisson, Véronique; de Lamballerile, Xavier; Favier, François; Fontenille, Didier; Gaüzère, Bernard-Alex; Journeaux, Sophie; Lotteau, Vincent; Paupy, Christophe; Sanquer, Marie-Anne; Setbon, Michel

2007-01-01

Many triggering factors for onset of emerging infectious diseases are now recognised, such as: globalisation, demographic increase, population movements, international trade, urbanisation, forest destruction, climate changes, loss in biodiversity, and extreme life conditions such as poverty, famine and war. Epidemic burden is often leading to disasters, in terms of human losses, as well as economic, political or social consequences. These outbreaks may jeopardize within a few weeks or months, industry, trade, or tourism. While dengue and its most severe forms (hemorrhagic and shock syndrome) is spreading all over the tropical world, another arbovirosis, chikungunya disease dramatically spread in Indian Ocean islands where 30 to 75% of population were infected in 2005 and 2006, and then extended its progression towards India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives islands with more than a million people infected with the East-African strain, replacing the former Asian strain which was known to prevail more than 30 years ago in India. Patients experience sequelae with disability, work loss, and rarely severe outcome recently identified in La Réunion and Mayotte (French overseas territories). No country, no part of the world may consider itself as protected against such events. However, consequences of emerging or re-emerging diseases are more and more unacceptable when they impact the poorest countries of the world. Viruses, bacteria, as well as wild animals, birds, or arthropods are not stopped by borders. It is time now to promote barriers against infectious diseases, including prevention, anticipation, disease surveillance and research. This is not only for humanitarian reasons, but also for contributing to a sustainable development with equity for worldwide population. This report presents comprehensive actions taken in 2006 for tracing the epidemic and mobilise research, as requested to the task force set up by the Prime Minister by March 20, 2006.

The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

Science.gov (United States)

He, Zhidong; Van Mieghem, Piet

2018-05-01

Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the time-dependent influence of a node is usually strongly coupled to the dynamic process and the underlying network. With increasing effective infection rate, we illustrate that the fastest spreader changes from the node with the largest degree to the node with the shortest flooding time. (The flooding time is the minimum time needed to reach all other nodes if the process is reduced to a flooding process.) Furthermore, by taking the local topology around the spreader and the average flooding time into account, we propose the spreading efficiency as a metric to quantify the efficiency of a spreader and identify the fastest spreader, which is adaptive to different infection rates in general networks.

Fast and accurate detection of spread source in large complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Paluch, Robert; Lu, Xiaoyan; Suchecki, Krzysztof; Szymański, Bolesław K; Hołyst, Janusz A

2018-02-06

Spread over complex networks is a ubiquitous process with increasingly wide applications. Locating spread sources is often important, e.g. finding the patient one in epidemics, or source of rumor spreading in social network. Pinto, Thiran and Vetterli introduced an algorithm (PTVA) to solve the important case of this problem in which a limited set of nodes act as observers and report times at which the spread reached them. PTVA uses all observers to find a solution. Here we propose a new approach in which observers with low quality information (i.e. with large spread encounter times) are ignored and potential sources are selected based on the likelihood gradient from high quality observers. The original complexity of PTVA is O(N α ), where α ∈ (3,4) depends on the network topology and number of observers (N denotes the number of nodes in the network). Our Gradient Maximum Likelihood Algorithm (GMLA) reduces this complexity to O (N 2 log (N)). Extensive numerical tests performed on synthetic networks and real Gnutella network with limitation that id's of spreaders are unknown to observers demonstrate that for scale-free networks with such limitation GMLA yields higher quality localization results than PTVA does.

World wide spatial capital.

Science.gov (United States)

Sen, Rijurekha; Quercia, Daniele

2018-01-01

In its most basic form, the spatial capital of a neighborhood entails that most aspects of daily life are located close at hand. Urban planning researchers have widely recognized its importance, not least because it can be transformed in other forms of capital such as economical capital (e.g., house prices, retail sales) and social capital (e.g., neighborhood cohesion). Researchers have already studied spatial capital from official city data. Their work led to important planning decisions, yet it also relied on data that is costly to create and update, and produced metrics that are difficult to compare across cities. By contrast, we propose to measure spatial capital in cheap and standardized ways around the world. Hence the name of our project "World Wide Spatial Capital". Our measures are cheap as they rely on the most basic information about a city that is currently available on the Web (i.e., which amenities are available and where). They are also standardized because they can be applied in any city in the five continents (as opposed to previous metrics that were mainly applied in USA and UK). We show that, upon these metrics, one could produce insights at the core of the urban planning discipline: which areas would benefit the most from urban interventions; how to inform planning depending on whether a city's activity is mono- or poly-centric; how different cities fare against each other; and how spatial capital correlates with other urban characteristics such as mobility patterns and road network structure.

World wide spatial capital.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rijurekha Sen

Full Text Available In its most basic form, the spatial capital of a neighborhood entails that most aspects of daily life are located close at hand. Urban planning researchers have widely recognized its importance, not least because it can be transformed in other forms of capital such as economical capital (e.g., house prices, retail sales and social capital (e.g., neighborhood cohesion. Researchers have already studied spatial capital from official city data. Their work led to important planning decisions, yet it also relied on data that is costly to create and update, and produced metrics that are difficult to compare across cities. By contrast, we propose to measure spatial capital in cheap and standardized ways around the world. Hence the name of our project "World Wide Spatial Capital". Our measures are cheap as they rely on the most basic information about a city that is currently available on the Web (i.e., which amenities are available and where. They are also standardized because they can be applied in any city in the five continents (as opposed to previous metrics that were mainly applied in USA and UK. We show that, upon these metrics, one could produce insights at the core of the urban planning discipline: which areas would benefit the most from urban interventions; how to inform planning depending on whether a city's activity is mono- or poly-centric; how different cities fare against each other; and how spatial capital correlates with other urban characteristics such as mobility patterns and road network structure.

GeoCENS: A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for the World-Wide Sensor Web

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve H.L. Liang

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The world-wide sensor web has become a very useful technique for monitoring the physical world at spatial and temporal scales that were previously impossible. Yet we believe that the full potential of sensor web has thus far not been revealed. In order to harvest the world-wide sensor web’s full potential, a geospatial cyberinfrastructure is needed to store, process, and deliver large amount of sensor data collected worldwide. In this paper, we first define the issue of the sensor web long tail followed by our view of the world-wide sensor web architecture. Then, we introduce the Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Environmental Sensing (GeoCENS architecture and explain each of its components. Finally, with demonstration of three real-world powered-by-GeoCENS sensor web applications, we believe that the GeoCENS architecture can successfully address the sensor web long tail issue and consequently realize the world-wide sensor web vision.

Re-Framing the World Wide Web

Science.gov (United States)

Black, August

2011-01-01

The research presented in this dissertation studies and describes how technical standards, protocols, and application programming interfaces (APIs) shape the aesthetic, functional, and affective nature of our most dominant mode of online communication, the World Wide Web (WWW). I examine the politically charged and contentious battle over browser…

On the relation between fluvio-deltaic flood basin geomorphology and the wide-spread occurrence of arsenic pollution in shallow aquifers.

Science.gov (United States)

Donselaar, Marinus E; Bhatt, Ajay G; Ghosh, Ashok K

2017-01-01

Pollution of groundwater with natural (geogenic) arsenic occurs on an enormous, world-wide scale, and causes wide-spread, serious health risks for an estimated more than hundred million people who depend on the use of shallow aquifers for drinking and irrigation water. A literature review of key studies on arsenic concentration levels yields that Holocene fluvial and deltaic flood basins are the hotspots of arsenic pollution, and that the dominant geomorphological setting of the arsenic-polluted areas consists of shallow-depth meandering-river deposits with sand-prone fluvial point-bar deposits surrounded by clay-filled (clay plug) abandoned meander bends (oxbow lakes). Analysis of the lithofacies distribution and related permeability contrasts of the geomorphological elements in two cored wells in a point bar and adjacent clay plug along the Ganges River, in combination with data of arsenic concentrations and organic matter content reveals that the low-permeable clay-plug deposits have a high organic matter content and the adjacent permeable point-bar sands show high but spatially very variable arsenic concentrations. On the basis of the geomorphological juxtaposition, the analysis of fluvial depositional processes and lithofacies characteristics, inherent permeability distribution and the omnipresence of the two geomorphological elements in Holocene flood basins around the world, a generic model is presented for the wide-spread arsenic occurrence. The anoxic deeper part (hypolimnion) of the oxbow lake, and the clay plugs are identified as the loci of reactive organic carbon and microbial respiration in an anoxic environment that triggers the reductive dissolution of iron oxy-hydroxides and the release of arsenic on the scale of entire fluvial floodplains and deltaic basins. The adjacent permeable point-bar sands are identified as the effective trap for the dissolved arsenic, and the internal permeability heterogeneity is the cause for aquifer compartmentalization

Epidemics and agendas: the politics of nightly news coverage of AIDS.

Science.gov (United States)

Colby, D C; Cook, T E

1991-01-01

We examine why the exponential growth of AIDS cases or the wide-spread professional perception of a health crisis did not move the epidemic more quickly onto the agenda of public problems. One possible explanation focuses on how the national news media's construction of AIDS shaped the meaning of the epidemic for mass and elite audiences. An examination of nightly news coverage by the three major networks from 1982 to 1989 reveals considerable variability and volatility in their coverage. Topic-driven saturation coverage occurred only during three short periods in 1983, 1985, and 1987, when the epidemic seemed likely to affect the "general population". Only at such moments did public opinion shift and discussion and debate in government begin. Otherwise, the typical AIDS story tended less to sensationalize than to reassure, largely because journalists depended upon government officials and high-ranking doctors to present them with evidence of news. Such sources had interests either in avoiding coverage or in pointing toward breakthroughs; more critical sources, especially within the gay movement, had far less access to the news. In concluding, we considered the prospects and pitfalls of the news media's power to shape the public agenda.

Modelling indirect interactions during failure spreading in a project activity network.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellinas, Christos

2018-03-12

Spreading broadly refers to the notion of an entity propagating throughout a networked system via its interacting components. Evidence of its ubiquity and severity can be seen in a range of phenomena, from disease epidemics to financial systemic risk. In order to understand the dynamics of these critical phenomena, computational models map the probability of propagation as a function of direct exposure, typically in the form of pairwise interactions between components. By doing so, the important role of indirect interactions remains unexplored. In response, we develop a simple model that accounts for the effect of both direct and subsequent exposure, which we deploy in the novel context of failure propagation within a real-world engineering project. We show that subsequent exposure has a significant effect in key aspects, including the: (a) final spreading event size, (b) propagation rate, and (c) spreading event structure. In addition, we demonstrate the existence of 'hidden influentials' in large-scale spreading events, and evaluate the role of direct and subsequent exposure in their emergence. Given the evidence of the importance of subsequent exposure, our findings offer new insight on particular aspects that need to be included when modelling network dynamics in general, and spreading processes specifically.

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel E Leventhal

Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Deciphering emerging Zika and dengue viral epidemics: Implications for global maternal–child health burden

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernest Tambo

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Summary: Since its discovery in 1947 in Uganda and control and eradication efforts have aimed at its vectors (Aedes mosquitoes in Latin America in the 1950s, an absolute neglect of Zika programs and interventions has been documented in Aedes endemic and epidemic-prone countries. The current unprecedented Zika viral epidemics and rapid spread in the Western hemisphere pose a substantial global threat, with associated anxiety and consequences. The lack of safe and effective drugs and vaccines against Zika or dengue epidemics further buttresses the realization from the West Africa Ebola outbreak that most emerging disease-prone countries are still poorly prepared for an emergency response. This paper examines knowledge gaps in both emerging and neglected arthropod-borne flavivirus infectious diseases associated with poverty and their implications for fostering local, national and regional emerging disease preparedness, effective and robust surveillance–response systems, sustained control and eventual elimination. Strengthening the regional and Global Health Flavivirus Surveillance-Response Network (GHFV-SRN with other models of socio-economic, climatic, environmental and ecological mitigation and adaptation strategies will be necessary to improve evidence-based national and global maternal–child health agenda and action plans. Keywords: Zika virus, Epidemics, Health, Preparedness, Surveillance, Maternal–child

World NGL markets continue rapid expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Otto, K.; Gist, R.; Whitley, C.; Haun, R.

1998-01-01

The international LPG industry has expanded rapidly during the 1990s and undergone significant changes. LPG consumption has expanded at nearly twice the rate of world petroleum demand. In particular, LPG use in residential and commercial markets has more than doubled in many developing countries. Markets for LPG and other petroleum products have been opened in many countries, accelerating demand growth and creating investment opportunities in all downstream segments. This has led to an overall strengthening of global LPG pricing and the development of many new export gas-processing projects. The paper discusses world LPG demand in residential and commercial markets and in petrochemicals, world LPG supply, regional increases, international trade, the US situation in natural gas, NGL supply, and NGL demand

WorldWide Web: Hypertext from CERN.

Science.gov (United States)

Nickerson, Gord

1992-01-01

Discussion of software tools for accessing information on the Internet focuses on the WorldWideWeb (WWW) system, which was developed at the European Particle Physics Laboratory (CERN) in Switzerland to build a worldwide network of hypertext links using available networking technology. Its potential for use with multimedia documents is also…

The role of fish movements and the spread of infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) in Chile, 2007-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Mardones, F O; Martinez-Lopez, B; Valdes-Donoso, P; Carpenter, T E; Perez, A M

2014-04-01

Infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) infection is a constant major threat to farmed and wild Atlantic salmon worldwide. Many epidemics have recently been reported in the most important salmon farming regions of the world, including Chile (2007-2009), where ISAV generated the most important disease and economic crisis in history of the salmon industry of the country. The spread of ISAV within a region is most likely by local or neighborhood spread from an infected farm; however, there is evidence that anthropogenic activities, such as movement of live or harvested fish or their byproduct, may have played a more important role than environmental or passive transmission in the 2007-2009 outbreak. Atlantic salmon farms (n=421) were retrospectively followed from stocking to harvesting in southern Chile at the time of the ISAV epidemic (2007-2009). The effect of husbandry and spatial risk factors, in addition to contact-network risk factors, which were obtained from the social network analyses, on time to first ISAV infection was estimated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. Five variables were retained in the final fitted model: co-existing multiple generations on a farm (hazard ratio [HR]=2.585), mean smolt weight at stocking greater than 120g (HR=1.165), farm area (perkm(2)) (HR=1.005), and increased number of shipments entering a farm, i.e. the farm input degree (HR=1.876) were associated with reduced time to infection; whereas time-to-infection was longer for farms located farther from an ongoing ISAV outbreak (HR=0.943). It was demonstrated that movements of latently infected fish resulted in approximately 7 outbreaks, and potentially explain about 6% of the total number of cases during the epidemic. Results from this study provide new information about the mechanisms of spread of ISAV in one the largest documented ISAV epidemics in the world. Findings may be used to support the design and implementation of risk-based surveillance and control

Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: Refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zumla, A. (Alimuddin); Alagaili, A.N. (Abdulaziz N.); Cotten, M. (Matthew); Azhar, E.I. (Esam I.)

2016-01-01

textabstractMedia and World Health Organization (WHO) attention on Zika virus transmission at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa diverted the attention of global public health authorities from other lethal infectious diseases with epidemic potential. Mass

Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

2015-08-01

One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

2015-08-21

One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

Internet and The World Wide Web

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 2. Internet and The World Wide Web. Neelima Shrikhande. General Article Volume 2 Issue 2 February 1997 pp 64-74. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/02/0064-0074 ...

Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

2016-04-01

The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

[AIDS in the world: revolution, paradigm and solidarity].

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, J

1991-01-01

AIDS in a single decade has affected life and assumptions on the societal and individual level more than any other illness or epidemic in history. The most important aspect of the HIV pandemic is that it is still in an early stage of development. The pandemic will continue to be volatile and dynamic; its greatest impact has not yet been felt. There is still great potential to influence its future course. HIV infection is spreading rapidly in some already affected populations in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, and is penetrating deeply into new areas such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Thailand and India are symbols of its rapid spread. The more than 100 million new cases of sexually transmitted diseases diagnosed in the world each year demonstrate the potential for sexual transmission of HIV. On the global level, the foundations have been laid for preventing the spread of HIV infection. But in many countries information is still inadequate or incorrect, needed social and health services are nonexistent, and punitive and discriminatory attitudes persist toward the infected. The gap between rich and poor within and between countries is widening. 2/3 of AIDS cases and 3/4 of seropositive individuals are in developing countries. The cost of drugs and treatment implies that "early intervention" is a meaningless concept for developing countries. The developed world contributes $200 million or less to combat AIDS in developing countries. Some of the revolutionary ideas prompted by the advent of AIDS included the immediate attention given to behavior as a preventive measure, the eradication of complacency about the condition of health and social services, the insistence of AIDS patients and the HIV infected on being included in the total process of prevention, treatment, and research, and the unexpected flowering of a dialogue on dignity, human rights, and social justice. AIDS is now leading to a new vision of health promotion in which

Spreading in online social networks: the role of social reinforcement.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Muhua; Lü, Linyuan; Zhao, Ming

2013-07-01

Some epidemic spreading models are usually applied to analyze the propagation of opinions or news. However, the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information or behavior spreading are essentially different in many aspects. Centola's experiments [Science 329, 1194 (2010)] on behavior spreading in online social networks showed that the spreading is faster and broader in regular networks than in random networks. This result contradicts with the former understanding that random networks are preferable for spreading than regular networks. To describe the spreading in online social networks, a unknown-known-approved-exhausted four-status model was proposed, which emphasizes the effect of social reinforcement and assumes that the redundant signals can improve the probability of approval (i.e., the spreading rate). Performing the model on regular and random networks, it is found that our model can well explain the results of Centola's experiments on behavior spreading and some former studies on information spreading in different parameter space. The effects of average degree and network size on behavior spreading process are further analyzed. The results again show the importance of social reinforcement and are accordant with Centola's anticipation that increasing the network size or decreasing the average degree will enlarge the difference of the density of final approved nodes between regular and random networks. Our work complements the former studies on spreading dynamics, especially the spreading in online social networks where the information usually requires individuals' confirmations before being transmitted to others.

Quarantine-generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C.; Dickison, M.; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L. A.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

2011-02-01

We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (wspread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

Hydroclimatological And Anthropogenic Drivers For Cholera Spreading

Science.gov (United States)

Righetto, Lorenzo; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Casagrandi, Renato; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2010-05-01

The nature of waterborne diseases, among which cholera has a prominent importance, calls for a better understanding of the link between epidemic spreading, water and climate. To this end, we have developed a framework which involves a network-based description of a river system, connected with local communities which act as nodes of the network. This has allowed us to produce consistent simulations of real case studies. More recent investigations comprise the evaluation of the spreading velocity of an epidemic wave by means of a reaction-diffusion modeling approach. In particular, we have found that both transport processes and epidemiological quantities, such as the basic reproduction number, have a crucial effect in controlling the spreading of the epidemics. We first developed a description of bacterial movement along the network driven by advection and diffusion; afterward, we have included the movement of human populations. This latter model allowed us to establish the conditions that can trigger epidemic waves that start from the coastal region, where bacteria are autochthonous, and travel inland. In particular, our findings suggest that even relatively low values of human diffusion can have the epidemic propagate upstream. The interaction between climate, hydrology and epidemic events is still much debated, since no clear correlation between climatologic and epidemiological phenomena has emerged so far. However, a spatial assessment of hydrological and epidemiological mechanisms could be crucial to understand the evolution of cholera outbreaks. In particular, a hotly debated topic is the understanding of the mechanisms that can generate patterns of cholera incidence that exhibit an intra-annual double peak, as frequently observed in endemic region such as Bangladesh. One of the possible explanations proposed in the literature is that spring droughts cause bacteria concentration in water to rise dramatically, triggering the first peak. On the other hand

Hybrid Epidemics - A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M.

2014-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore ...

On the oscillatory dynamical behaviour of epidemic spreading in fractal media

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bab, M A; Albano, E V

2008-01-01

We present numerical evidence that dynamical physical processes that develop a time-dependent characteristic length, and take place in fractal media exhibiting spatial discrete scale invariance (DSI) with fundamental scaling ratio b, may become coupled to the topology of the fractal leading to the observation of time DSI. The hallmark of time DSI is the observation of a log-periodic modulation of the dynamic or kinetic observables, which is characterized by a well-defined fundamental time scaling ratio (τ). Both fundamental scaling ratios are linked according to b = τ 1/z , where z is the dynamic exponent characteristic of the physical process. Specifically, we have studied the epidemic behaviour of the contact process (CP) in Sierpinski Carpets. The CP exhibits second-order irreversible phase transitions between an active regime and an absorbing state where the system is trapped without any escape possibility. We observed that relevant dynamic observables, such as the number of active sites, the survival probability of the epidemics and the mean square displacement of the epidemic from the origin (R 2 (t)), exhibit log-periodic modulations. By fitting the data we evaluate the fundamental time scaling ratio for various fractals and the corresponding dynamic exponents. Since, at criticality, one has that R 2 (t) ∼ t 2/z , an independent estimation of the dynamic exponent can be performed, in excellent agreement with results obtained by using the conjectured relationship for the fundamental scaling ratios b and τ

On the oscillatory dynamical behaviour of epidemic spreading in fractal media

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bab, M A; Albano, E V [Instituto de Investigaciones FisicoquImicas Teoricas y Aplicadas (INIFTA), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, UNLP, CONICET, Casilla de Correo 16, Sucursal 4 (1900) La Plata (Argentina)

2008-02-01

We present numerical evidence that dynamical physical processes that develop a time-dependent characteristic length, and take place in fractal media exhibiting spatial discrete scale invariance (DSI) with fundamental scaling ratio b, may become coupled to the topology of the fractal leading to the observation of time DSI. The hallmark of time DSI is the observation of a log-periodic modulation of the dynamic or kinetic observables, which is characterized by a well-defined fundamental time scaling ratio ({tau}). Both fundamental scaling ratios are linked according to b = {tau}{sup 1/z}, where z is the dynamic exponent characteristic of the physical process. Specifically, we have studied the epidemic behaviour of the contact process (CP) in Sierpinski Carpets. The CP exhibits second-order irreversible phase transitions between an active regime and an absorbing state where the system is trapped without any escape possibility. We observed that relevant dynamic observables, such as the number of active sites, the survival probability of the epidemics and the mean square displacement of the epidemic from the origin (R{sup 2}(t)), exhibit log-periodic modulations. By fitting the data we evaluate the fundamental time scaling ratio for various fractals and the corresponding dynamic exponents. Since, at criticality, one has that R{sup 2}(t) {approx} t{sup 2/z}, an independent estimation of the dynamic exponent can be performed, in excellent agreement with results obtained by using the conjectured relationship for the fundamental scaling ratios b and {tau}.

Women's rights and women's health during HIV/AIDS epidemics: the experience of women in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugassa, Begna F

2009-08-01

Twenty-five years have passed since HIV/AIDS was recognized as a major public health problem. Although billions of dollars are spent in research and development, we still have no medical cure or vaccination. In the early days of the epidemic, public health slogans suggested that HIV/AIDS does not discriminate. Now it is becoming clear that HIV/AIDS spreads most rapidly among poor, marginalized, women, colonized, and disempowered groups of people more than others. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is exacerbated by the social, economic, political, and cultural conditions of societies such as gender, racial, class, and other forms of inequalities. Sub-Saharan African countries are severely hit by HIV/AIDS. For these countries the pandemic of HIV/AIDS demands the need to travel extra miles. My objective in this article is to promote the need to go beyond the biomedical model of "technical fixes" and the traditional public health education tools, and come up with innovative ideas and strategic thinking to contain the epidemic. In this article, I argue that containing the HIV/AIDS epidemic and improving family and community health requires giving appropriate attention to the social illnesses that are responsible for exacerbating biological disorders.

Genomic epidemiology of the haitian cholera outbreak: a single introduction followed by rapid, extensive, and continued spread characterized the onset of the epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eppinger, Mark; Pearson, Talima; Koenig, Sara S. K.

2014-01-01

In this genomic epidemiology study, we have applied high-resolution whole-genome-based sequence typing methodologies on a comprehensive set of genome sequences that have become available in the aftermath of the Haitian cholera epidemic. These sequence resources enabled us to reassess the degree...

Utilization of the world wide web

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohr, P.; Mallard, G.; Ralchenko, U.; Schultz, D.

1998-01-01

Two aspects of utilization of the World Wide Web are examined: (i) the communication of technical data through web cites that provide repositories of atomic and molecular data accessible through searchable databases; and (ii) the communication about issues of mutual concern among data producers, data compilers and evaluators, and data users. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

Promoting and supporting PBL interests world wide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig; Kolmos, Anette; Moesby, Egon

2006-01-01

of projects world wide focusing on institutional change toward a more student centred, project organised, and problem based approach to learning. The Centre is also establishing a UCPBL Global Network on Problem Based Learning in order to facilitate better access to and co-operation within the PBL area.......-Based Learning (PBL) in Engineering Education, an increasing number of universities and engineering schools throughout the world are seeking consultancy and cooperation with Aalborg University. The establishment of UCPBL is therefore a timely opportunity to merge the efforts into one organisational structure...... aiming to promote and support PBL interests worldwide. This paper presents the UCPBL profile and plan of action. This includes a wide range of activities such as promoting research and development within the various PBL models and their implementation; Education and training in PBL through offering...

Forced Spreading of Aqueous Solutions on Zwitterionic Sulfobetaine Surfaces for Rapid Evaporation and Solute Separation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Cyuan-Jhang; Singh, Vickramjeet; Sheng, Yu-Jane; Tsao, Heng-Kwong

2017-08-01

Solute separation of aqueous mixtures is mainly dominated by water vaporization. The evaporation rate of an aqueous drop grows with increasing the liquid-gas interfacial area. The spontaneous spreading behavior of a water droplet on a total wetting surface provides huge liquid-gas interfacial area per unit volume; however, it is halted by the self-pinning phenomenon upon addition of nonvolatile solutes. In this work, it is shown that the solute-induced self-pinning can be overcome by gravity, leading to anisotropic spreading much faster than isotropic spreading. The evaporation rate of anisotropic spreading on a zwitterionic sulfobetaine surface is 25 times larger as that on a poly(methyl methacrylate) surface. Dramatic enhancement of evaporation is demonstrated by simultaneous formation of fog atop liquid film. During anisotropic spreading, the solutes are quickly precipitated out within 30 s, showing the rapid solute-water separation. After repeated spreading process for the dye-containing solution, the mean concentration of the collection is doubled, revealing the concentration efficiency as high as 100%. Gravity-enhanced spreading on total wetting surfaces at room temperature is easy to scale-up with less energy consumption, and thus it has great potentials for the applications of solute separation and concentration.

Epidemiological bridging by injection drug use drives an early HIV epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Volz

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The risk of acquiring sexually transmitted infections (STIs depends on individual behavior and the network of risky partnerships in which an individual participates. STI epidemics often spread rapidly and primarily among individuals central to transmission networks; and thus they often defy the mass-action principle since incidence is not proportional to the infectious fraction of the population. Here, we estimate the contact network structure for an Atlanta, Georgia community with heterogeneous sexual and drug-related risk behaviors and build a detailed transmission model for HIV through this population. We show that accurate estimation of epidemic incidence requires careful measurement and inclusion of diverse factors including concurrency (having multiple partners, the duration of partnerships, serosorting (preference for partners with matching disease state, and heterogeneity in the number and kinds of partners. In the focal population, we find that injection drug users (IDUs do not directly cause many secondary infections; yet they bridge the heterosexual and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM populations and are thereby indirectly responsible for extensive transmission. Keywords: HIV, Networks, Serosorting, Concurrency

The International Energy Agency`s role in world-wide wind energy development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rangi, R. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Ancona, D. [Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

1997-12-31

Wind energy is now being deployed world-wide at a rapidly increasing rate and the International Energy Agency (IEA) has a changing role in its growth. IEA was founded in 1974 within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to collaborate on comprehensive international energy programs. IEA membership consists of eighteen parties from sixteen countries and the European Commission. Recently there has been increasing interest in IEA participation from both OECD and non-OECD countries. Non-OECD countries participating in various IEA Agreements include: China, India, Israel, Korea, and Russia. Because of its diverse international makeup, the IEA is viewed as a source of reliable technical and economic information. The World Bank has approached the Executive Committee for Wind Energy R & D, through the IEA Renewable Energy Working Party, to assist in the expansion of wind deployment. In addition, IEA is moving from R & D programs to include tracking of implementation incentives offered by its members.

Quarantine-generated phase transition in epidemic spreading.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagorio, C; Dickison, M; Vazquez, F; Braunstein, L A; Macri, P A; Migueles, M V; Havlin, S; Stanley, H E

2011-02-01

We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold w(c) separating a phase (wspread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation and that w(c) increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that w(c) is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes. ©2011 American Physical Society

Weighted tunable clustering in local-world networks with increment behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Ying-Hong; Li, Huijia; Zhang, Xiao-Dong

2010-01-01

Since some realistic networks are influenced not only by increment behavior but also by the tunable clustering mechanism with new nodes to be added to networks, it is interesting to characterize the model for those actual networks. In this paper, a weighted local-world model, which incorporates increment behavior and the tunable clustering mechanism, is proposed and its properties are investigated, such as degree distribution and clustering coefficient. Numerical simulations are fitted to the model and also display good right-skewed scale-free properties. Furthermore, the correlation of vertices in our model is studied which shows the assortative property. The epidemic spreading process by weighted transmission rate on the model shows that the tunable clustering behavior has a great impact on the epidemic dynamic

Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keeling Matthew J

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

2010-01-01

This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

Effects of contact network structure on epidemic transmission trees: implications for data required to estimate network structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2018-01-30

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is key to developing effective interventions to control or prevent an epidemic. The structure of the network of contacts over which the disease spreads has been shown to have a strong influence on the outcome of the epidemic, but an open question remains as to whether it is possible to estimate contact network features from data collected in an epidemic. The approach taken in this paper is to examine the distributions of epidemic outcomes arising from epidemics on networks with particular structural features to assess whether that structure could be measured from epidemic data and what other constraints might be needed to make the problem identifiable. To this end, we vary the network size, mean degree, and transmissibility of the pathogen, as well as the network feature of interest: clustering, degree assortativity, or attribute-based preferential mixing. We record several standard measures of the size and spread of the epidemic, as well as measures that describe the shape of the transmission tree in order to ascertain whether there are detectable signals in the final data from the outbreak. The results suggest that there is potential to estimate contact network features from transmission trees or pure epidemic data, particularly for diseases with high transmissibility or for which the relevant contact network is of low mean degree. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measles: The past, the present and the future | Abdulkarim | Nigerian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Measles is one of the most infectious diseases known to affect man. It spreads rapidly from an index case to many susceptible individuals resulting in cycles of epidemics in different parts of the world especially in the African continent. The contribution of measles to childhood mortality and morbidity remains high because it ...

Tim Berners-Lee, World Wide Web inventor

CERN Multimedia

1998-01-01

The "Internet, Web, What's next?" conference on 26 June 1998 at CERN: Tim Berners-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web and Director of the W3C, explains how the Web came to be and gave his views on the future.

World Wide Web of Your Wide Web? Juridische aspecten van zoekmachine-personalisatie

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oostveen, M.

2012-01-01

Het world wide web is een enorme bron van informatie. Iedere internetgebruiker maakt gebruik van zoekmachines om die informatie te kunnen vinden. Veel gebruikers weten echter niet dat zoekresultaten behorende bij een bepaalde zoekterm niet voor iedereen hetzelfde zijn. Dit personaliseren van

Do We Need to Impose More Regulation Upon the World Wide Web? -A Metasystem Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John P. van Gigch

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Every day a new problem attributable to the World Wide Web's lack of formal structure and/or organization is made public. What arguably could be represented as one of its main strengths is rapidly turning out to be one of its most flagrant weaknesses. The intent of this article is to show the need to establish a more formal organization than presently exists over the World Wide Web. (This article will use the terms the Internet and Cyberspace interchangeably. It is proposed that this formal organization take the form of a metacontrol system--to be explained-- and rely, at least in part, for this control to self-regulate. The so-called metasystem system would be responsible for preventing some of the unanticipated situations that take place in cyberspace and that, due to the web's lack of maturity, have not been encountered heretofore. Some activities, such as the denial-of-service (DoS attacks, may well be illicit. Others, like the question of establishing a world-wide democratic board to administer the Internet's address system, are so new that there are no technical, legal or political precedents to ensure its design will succeed. What is needed is a formal, over-arching control system, i.e. a "metasystem," to arbitrate over controversies, decide on the legality of new policies and, in general, act as a metalevel controller over the activities of the virtual community called Cyberspace. The World Wide Web Consortium has emerged as a possible candidate for this role.This paper uses control theory to define both the problem and the proposed solution. Cyberspace lacks a metacontroller that can be used to resolve the many problems that arise when a new organizational configuration, such as the Internet, is created and when questions surface about the extent to which new activities interfere with individual or corporate freedoms.

Genealogical evidence for epidemics of selfish genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingvarsson, Par K; Taylor, Douglas R

2002-08-20

Some genetic elements spread infectiously in populations by increasing their rate of genetic transmission at the expense of other genes in the genome. These so-called selfish genetic elements comprise a substantial portion of eukaryotic genomes and have long been viewed as a potent evolutionary force. Despite this view, little is known about the evolutionary history of selfish genetic elements in natural populations, or their genetic effects on other portions of the genome. Here we use nuclear and chloroplast gene genealogies in two species of Silene to show the historical pattern of selection on a well known selfish genetic element, cytoplasmic male sterility. We provide evidence that evolution of cytoplasmic male sterility has been characterized by frequent turnovers of mutations in natural populations, thus supporting an epidemic model for the evolution of selfish genes, where new mutations repeatedly arise and rapidly sweep through populations.

The global condition of epidemics: Panoramas in A (H1N1) influenza and their consequences for One World One Health programme.

Science.gov (United States)

Tirado, Francisco; Gómez, Andrés; Rocamora, Verónica

2015-03-01

Among the most relevant elements contributing to define the One World One Health programme we find epidemics. The reason is that in recent decades, infectious diseases such as HIV/SIDA, SARS and Influenza have shown that we need new approaches and concepts in order to understand how biological emergencies and health alerts deploy new scales of action. Especially relevant has been the case of A(H1N1) influenza. This reached the status of global threat virtually from its onset, triggering an international response with a diffusion, visibility and rapidity unparalleled in previous health alerts. This article maintains that this global condition cannot be explained solely by the epidemiologic characteristics of the disease, such as mortality rate, severe cases, propagation capacity, etc. Resorting to the approach proposed by the Actor-Network Theory (ANT), this paper suggests that the action of certain socio-technical operators was what built a heterogeneous network of ideas, concepts and materials that turned the A (H1N1) influenza into a global-scale phenomenon with unprecedented speed. Among these operators, the most important ones were: the speaking position, a discourse about threat, the protocols and guidelines that were used and, lastly, the maps that allowed a real-time monitoring of the influenza. The paper ends with the notion of panorama, as defined by Bruno Latour: a suggestion to describe the common denominator of the aforementioned operators, and a means to foresee the development of global scales for certain health alerts. The paper will conclude by proposing that this type of analysis would allow the One World One Health to understand with greater precision the dynamic of epidemics and thus make its principles of action much more specific as well as its definition of what global health should be. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

Science.gov (United States)

Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

2015-03-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

Science.gov (United States)

Hadidjojo, Jeremy; Cheong, Siew Ann

2011-01-01

Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics. PMID:21799777

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor

2017-01-01

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. ...

Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goldstein, E.; Paur, K.; Fraser, C.; Kenah, E.; Wallinga, J.; Lipsitch, M.

Many of the studies on emerging epidemics (such as SARS and pandemic flu) use mass action models to estimate reproductive numbers and the needed control measures. In reality, transmission patterns are more complex due to the presence of various social networks. One level of complexity can be

Epidemic Cholera and American Reform Movements in the 19th Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seohyung KIM

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The 19th century was the age of great reform in American history. After constructing of the canal and railroads, the industrialization began and American society changed so rapidly. In this period, there were so many social crisis and American people tried to solve these problems within the several reform movements. These reform movements were the driving forces to control cholera during the 19th century. Cholera was the endemic disease in Bengal, India, but after the 19th century it had spread globally by the development of trade networks. The 1832 cholera in the United States was the first epidemic cholera in American history. The mortality of cholera was so high, but it was very hard to find out the cause of this fatal infectious disease. So, different social discourses happened to control epidemic cholera in the 19th century, these can be understood within the similar context of American reform movements during this period. Board of Health in New York States made a new public health act to control cholera in 1832, it was ineffective. Some people insisted that the cause of this infectious disease was the corruption of the United States. They emphasized unjust and immoral system in American society. Moral reform expanded to Nativism, because lots of Irish immigrants were the victims of cholera. So, epidemic cholera was the opportunity to spread the desire for moral reform. To control cholera in 1849, the sanitary reform in Britain had affected. The fact that it was so important to improve and maintain the water quality for the control and prevention of disease spread, the sanitary reform happened. There were two different sphere of the sanitary reform. The former was the private reform to improve sewer or privy, the latter was the public reform to build sewage facilities. The 1849 cholera had an important meaning, because the social discourse, which had emphasized the sanitation of people or home expanded to the public sphere. When cholera

[Epidemic Cholera and American Reform Movements in the 19th Century].

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seohyung

2015-12-01

The 19th century was the age of great reform in American history. After constructing of the canal and railroads, the industrialization began and American society changed so rapidly. In this period, there were so many social crisis and American people tried to solve these problems within the several reform movements. These reform movements were the driving forces to control cholera during the 19th century. Cholera was the endemic disease in Bengal, India, but after the 19th century it had spread globally by the development of trade networks. The 1832 cholera in the United States was the first epidemic cholera in American history. The mortality of cholera was so high, but it was very hard to find out the cause of this fatal infectious disease. So, different social discourses happened to control epidemic cholera in the 19th century, these can be understood within the similar context of American reform movements during this period. Board of Health in New York States made a new public health act to control cholera in 1832, it was ineffective. Some people insisted that the cause of this infectious disease was the corruption of the United States. They emphasized unjust and immoral system in American society. Moral reform expanded to Nativism, because lots of Irish immigrants were the victims of cholera. So, epidemic cholera was the opportunity to spread the desire for moral reform. To control cholera in 1849, the sanitary reform in Britain had affected. The fact that it was so important to improve and maintain the water quality for the control and prevention of disease spread, the sanitary reform happened. There were two different sphere of the sanitary reform. The former was the private reform to improve sewer or privy, the latter was the public reform to build sewage facilities. The 1849 cholera had an important meaning, because the social discourse, which had emphasized the sanitation of people or home expanded to the public sphere. When cholera broke out in 1866 again

News Resources on the World Wide Web.

Science.gov (United States)

Notess, Greg R.

1996-01-01

Describes up-to-date news sources that are presently available on the Internet and World Wide Web. Highlights include electronic newspapers; AP (Associated Press) sources and Reuters; sports news; stock market information; New York Times; multimedia capabilities, including CNN Interactive; and local and regional news. (LRW)

Telepresence Robots in the Wide Wild World

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bruijnes, Merijn; van Delden, Robby; Vroon, Jered Hendrik

2017-01-01

Mobile remote presence systems (MRPs) are the logical next step in telepresence, but what are the ethical, social, legal, and technical implications of such systems going into the wide wild world? We explored these potential issues by immersing ourselves in a range of possible applications by

The impact of heterogeneous response on coupled spreading dynamics in multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Nie, Xiaoyu; Tang, Ming; Zou, Yong; Guan, Shuguang; Zhou, Jie

2017-10-01

Many recent studies have demonstrated that individual awareness of disease may significantly affect the spreading process of infectious disease. In the majority of these studies, the response of the awareness is generally treated homogeneously. Considering of diversity and heterogeneity in the human behavior which widely exist under different circumstances, in this paper we study heterogeneous response when people are aware of the prevalence of infectious diseases. Specifically, we consider that an individual with more neighbors may take more preventive measures as a reaction when he is aware of the disease. A suppression strength is introduced to describe such heterogeneity, and we find that a more evident heterogeneity may cause a more effective suppressing effect to the spreading of epidemics. A mean-field theory is developed to support the results which are verified on the multiplex networks with different interlayer degree correlation.

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor

2017-01-01

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We...

Natural resources and the spread of HIV/AIDS: Curse or blessing?

Science.gov (United States)

Sterck, Olivier

2016-02-01

This paper answers two questions: "What impact have natural resources had on the spread of the HIV epidemic so far?" and "What role can natural resource rents play in order to finance the long-run response to HIV/AIDS?" Using a panel dataset covering 137 countries from 1990 until 2008, de Soysa and Gizelis (2013) provided evidence in Social Science & Medicine that oil-rich countries are more deeply affected by the HIV and TB epidemics. They concluded that government of resource-rich countries failed to implement effective public policies for dealing with the epidemics. In this paper, I show that their results are (1) not robust, (2) based on an inappropriate choice of dependent variable and (3) spurious because series are non-stationary. After correcting for these issues, I find no robust relationship between resource rents and the spread of HIV and TB. The paper concludes by emphasizing the potential of natural resources rents for financing the long-term liability brought about by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying the starting point of a spreading process in complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Comin, Cesar Henrique; Costa, Luciano da Fontoura

2011-11-01

When dealing with the dissemination of epidemics, one important question that can be asked is the location where the contamination began. In this paper, we analyze three spreading schemes and propose and validate an effective methodology for the identification of the source nodes. The method is based on the calculation of the centrality of the nodes on the sampled network, expressed here by degree, betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality. We show that the source node tends to have the highest measurement values. The potential of the methodology is illustrated with respect to three theoretical complex network models as well as a real-world network, the email network of the University Rovira i Virgili.

THE "LEGAL EPIDEMIOLOGY" OF THE TEEN SEXTING EPIDEMIC: HOW THE MEDIA INFLUENCED A LEGISLATIVE OUTBREAK

OpenAIRE

Kimberlianne Podlas

2012-01-01

This article considers the media‟s impact on the “legal epidemiology” of the teen sexting epidemic.  Here, “teen sexting epidemic” refers to two things: (1) the belief that sext messaging by teens is rampant and spreading, hence, is an epidemic; and (2) the process by which a piece of information spreads like a virus, came to be understood as a pathogen infecting teens, resulted in a rash of child pornography prosecutions, and erupted into an o...