WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapidly warming regions

  1. Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, D. G.; Marshall, G. J.; Connolley, W. M.; Parkinson, C.; Mulvaney, R.; Hodgson, D. A.; King, J. C.; Pudsey, C. J.; Turner, J.

    2002-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that global warming was 0.6 ñ 0.2 degrees C during the 20th Century and cited increases in greenhouse gases as a likely contributor. But this average conceals the complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally biased, decadally variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming ? substantially more rapid than the global mean. We discuss the spatial and temporal significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. New analyses of station records show no ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming but significant RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. We investigate the likelihood that this could be amplification of a global warming, and use climate-proxy data to indicate that this RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia and unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. We can show a strong connection between RRR warming and reduced sea-ice duration in an area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process causes the RRR warming, and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining it is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.

  2. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

    2005-01-01

    rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however......Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...

  3. Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenters, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.

  4. Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

  5. Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Flint, Paul L.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Koch, Joshua C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Oakley, Karen L.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic, associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions.

  6. Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donat, M. G.; Pitman, A. J.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-07-01

    Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hot spots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America, and Southeast China. These hot spots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day when the hot extreme occurs demonstrates that the hot spots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a reevaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

  7. Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

    2017-10-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation

  8. Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yanjiao; Yang, Jiashuo; Hu, Wei; Zahoor, Rizwan; Chen, Binglin; Zhao, Wenqing; Meng, Yali; Zhou, Zhiguo

    2017-08-23

    Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, T day /T night ) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, T night had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means T n could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.

  9. Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2017-02-01

    Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.

  10. Changes in winter warming events in the Nordic Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Isaksen, Ketil; Haugen, Jan Erik; Bjerke, Jarle Werner; Tømmervik, Hans

    2015-04-01

    In recent years winter warming events are frequently reported from Arctic areas. Extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, cause severe ecological disturbance and great challenges for Arctic infrastructure. For example, the formation of ground ice due to winter rain or melting prevents reindeer from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The infrastructure may be affected by avalanches and floods resulting from intense snowmelt. The aim of our analysis is to study changes in warm spells during winter in the Nordic Arctic Region, here defined as the regions in Norway, Sweden and Finland north of the Arctic circle (66.5°N), including the Arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. Within this study area we have selected the longest available high quality observation series with daily temperature and precipitation. For studying future climate we use available regionally downscaled scenarios. We analyse three time periods: 1) the past 50-100 years, 2) the present (last 15 years, 2000-2014) and 3) the future (next 50-100 years). We define an extended winter season (October-April) and further divide it into three subseasons: 1) Early winter (October and November), 2) Mid-winter (December, January and February) and 3) Late-winter (March and April). We identify warm spells using two different classification criteria: a) days with temperature above 0°C (the melting temperature); and b) days with temperature in excess of the 90th percentile of the 1985-2014 temperature for each subseason. Both wet and dry warm spells are analysed. We compare the results for the mainland stations (maritime and inland stations) with the Arctic islands. All stations have very high frequency of warm weather events in the period 1930-1940s and for the last 15 years (2000-2014). For the most recent period the largest increase in number of warm spells are observed at the northernmost stations. We also find a continuation of this

  11. Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions

    OpenAIRE

    Georgescu, Matei; Morefield, Philip E.; Bierwagen, Britta G.; Weaver, Christopher P.

    2014-01-01

    Conversion to urban landforms has consequences for regional climate and the many inhabitants living within the built environment. The purpose of our investigation was to explore hydroclimatic impacts of 21st century urban expansion across the United States and examine the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies in context of long-term global climate change. We show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, urban expansion across the United States imparts warming ove...

  12. Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, Matei; Morefield, Philip E; Bierwagen, Britta G; Weaver, Christopher P

    2014-02-25

    Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.

  13. Enhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Huang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examined surface air temperature trends over global land from 1901–2009. It is found that the warming trend was particularly enhanced, in the boreal cold season (November to March over semi-arid regions (with precipitation of 200–600 mm yr−1 showing a temperature increase of 1.53 °C as compared to the global annual mean temperature increase of 1.13 °C over land. In mid-latitude semi-arid areas of Europe, Asia, and North America, temperatures in the cold season increased by 1.41, 2.42, and 1.5 °C, respectively. The semi-arid regions contribute 44.46% to global annual-mean land-surface temperature trend. The mid-latitude semi-arid regions in the Northern Hemisphere contribute by 27.0% of the total, with the mid-latitude semi-arid areas in Europe, Asia, and North America accounting for 6.29%, 13.81%, and 6.85%, respectively. Such enhanced semi-arid warming (ESAW imply drier and warmer trend of these regions.

  14. Warm-ups for military fitness testing: rapid evidence assessment of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeno, Stacey A; Purvis, Dianna; Crawford, Cindy; Lee, Courtney; Lisman, Peter; Deuster, Patricia A

    2013-07-01

    Warm-up exercises are commonly used before exercise as a method to physiologically prepare for strenuous physical activity. Various warm-up exercises are often implemented but without scientific merit and, at times, may be detrimental to performance. To date, no systematic reviews have examined the effectiveness of warm-up exercises for military physical fitness test (PFT) or combat fitness test (CFT). The purpose of this rapid evidence assessment of the literature was to examine the quantity, quality, and effectiveness of warm-up exercises for PFT and identify those that might increase PFT and/or CFT scores, as reported in the literature. Literature searches of randomized controlled trials were performed across various databases from database inception to May 2011. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) 50 criteria for randomized controlled trial designs, and studies were individually described. Subject matter experts summarized the results applicable or generalizable to military testing. The search yielded a total of 1177 citations, with 37 fitting our inclusion criteria. Cardiovascular warm-ups increased sprint/running time, but dynamic stretching and dynamic warm-ups had the most positive outcome for the various exercise tests examined. Systematically, static stretching had no beneficial or detrimental effect on exercise performance but did improve range of movement exercises. Selected warm-up exercise may increase PFT and possibly CFT scores. Further research is needed to investigate the efficacy of dynamic stretching and dynamic warm-ups.

  15. What are the implications of rapid global warming for landslide-triggered turbidity current activity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt

    2014-05-01

    A geologically short-lived (~170kyr) episode of global warming occurred at ~55Ma, termed the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM). Global temperatures rose by up to 8oC over only ~10kyr and a massive perturbation of the global carbon cycle occurred; creating a negative carbon isotopic (~-4% δ13C) excursion in sedimentary records. This interval has relevance to study of future climate change and its influence on geohazards including submarine landslides and turbidity currents. We analyse the recurrence frequency of turbidity currents, potentially initiated from large-volume slope failures. The study focuses on two sedimentary intervals that straddle the IETM and we discuss implications for turbidity current triggering. We present the results of statistical analyses (regression, generalised linear model, and proportional hazards model) for extensive turbidite records from an outcrop at Zumaia in NE Spain (N=285; 54.0 to 56.5 Ma) and based on ODP site 1068 on the Iberian Margin (N=1571; 48.2 to 67.6 Ma). The sedimentary sequences provide clear differentiation between hemipelagic and turbiditic mud with only negligible evidence of erosion. We infer dates for turbidites by converting hemipelagic bed thicknesses to time using interval-averaged accumulation rates. Multi-proxy dating techniques provide good age constraint. The background trend for the Zumaia record shows a near-exponential distribution of turbidite recurrence intervals, while the Iberian Margin shows a log-normal response. This is interpreted to be related to regional time-independence (exponential) and the effects of additive processes (log-normal). We discuss how a log-normal response may actually be generated over geological timescales from multiple shorter periods of random turbidite recurrence. The IETM interval shows a dramatic departure from both these background trends, however. This is marked by prolonged hiatuses (0.1 and 0.6 Myr duration) in turbidity current activity in contrast to the

  16. The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal

    2015-01-01

    stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological...

  17. Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järvi, L; Grimmond, C S B; McFadden, J P; Christen, A; Strachan, I B; Taka, M; Warsta, L; Heimann, M

    2017-07-19

    While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.

  18. Rapid disturbances in Arctic permafrost regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, G.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Arp, C. D.; Jones, B. M.

    2013-12-01

    Permafrost thaw is often perceived as a slow process dominated by press disturbances such as gradual active layer thickening. However, various pulse disturbances such as thermokarst formation can substantially increase the rate of permafrost thaw and result in rapid landscape change on sub-decadal to decadal time scales. Other disturbances associated with permafrost thaw are even more dynamic and unfold on sub-annual timescales, such as catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage. The diversity of processes results in complex feedbacks with soil carbon pools, biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and flora and fauna, and requires a differentiated approach when quantifying how these ecosystem componentsare affected,how vulnerablethey are to rapid change, and what regional to global scale impacts result. Here we show quantitative measurements for three examples of rapid pulse disturbances in permafrost regions as observed with remote sensing data time series: The formation of a mega thaw slump (>50 ha) in syngenetic permafrost in Siberia, the formation of new thermokarst ponds in ice-rich permafrost regions in Alaska and Siberia, and the drainage of thermokarst lakes along a gradient of permafrost extent in Western Alaska. The surprising setting and unabated growth of the mega thaw slump during the last 40 years indicates that limited information on panarctic ground ice distribution, abundance, and vulnerability remains a key gap for reliable projections of thermokarst and thermo-erosion impacts, and that the natural limits on the growth and size of thaw slumps are still poorly understood. Observed thermokarst pond formation and expansion in our study regions was closely tied to ice-rich permafrost terrain, such as syngenetic Yedoma uplands, but was also found in old drained thermokarst lake basins with epigenetic permafrost and shallow drained thermokarst lake basins whose ground ice had not been depleted by the prior lake phase. The very different substrates in which new

  19. Ocean warming, a rapid distributional shift, and the hybridization of a coastal fish species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, Warren M; Henriques, Romina; Santos, Carmen V; Munnik, Kate; Ansorge, Isabelle; Dufois, Francois; Booth, Anthony J; Kirchner, Carola; Sauer, Warwick H H; Shaw, Paul W

    2014-09-01

    Despite increasing awareness of large-scale climate-driven distribution shifts in the marine environment, no study has linked rapid ocean warming to a shift in distribution and consequent hybridization of a marine fish species. This study describes rapid warming (0.8 °C per decade) in the coastal waters of the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone over the last three decades and a concomitant shift by a temperature sensitive coastal fish species (Argyrosomus coronus) southward from Angola into Namibia. In this context, rapid shifts in distribution across Economic Exclusive Zones will complicate the management of fishes, particularly when there is a lack of congruence in the fisheries policy between nations. Evidence for recent hybridization between A. coronus and a congener, A. inodorus, indicate that the rapid shift in distribution of A. coronus has placed adults of the two species in contact during their spawning events. Ocean warming may therefore revert established species isolation mechanisms and alter the evolutionary history of fishes. While the consequences of the hybridization on the production of the resource remain unclear, this will most likely introduce additional layers of complexity to their management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Role of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool in Rapid Climate Changes over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il

    2017-04-01

    Oceanic states over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is surrounded by heavily populated countries, are closely tied to the lives of the people in East Asia in regards to both climate and socioeconomics. As global warming continues, remarkable increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) have been observed in the WNP in recent decades. Here, we show that the SST increase in the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), which is the second largest warm pool on the globe, has contributed considerably to the rapid surface warming and sea level rise in the WNP via its remote teleconnection along the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). State-of-the-art climate models strongly support the role of the WHWP not only on interannual time sales but also in long-term climate projections. We expect that understanding the processes initiated by the WHWP-SST could permit better forecasts of western North Pacific climate and the further development of the socioeconomics of East Asia.

  1. Physiological responses of Kobresia pygmaea to warming in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau permafrost region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y.; Wang, G. X.; Yang, L. D.; Guo, J. Y.; Li, N.

    2012-02-01

    Kobresia pygmaea (C. B. Clarke) C. B. Clarke is one dominant herbaceous species in the alpine meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. From 2006 to 2009, a warming experiment was conducted in this permafrost region. Two 2-year warming treatments with an annual average warming of 2.1 °C and 4.4 °C, and one 4-year warming treatment with an annual average warming of 2.3 °C were established to examine physiological responses of K. pygmaea to warming. Our results indicated that 2-years of warming increased malondialdehyde and non-structural carbohydrates in the plants. There was no effect of 2-year warming on electrolyte leakage and free proline content. In the 2-year warming treatment, superoxide dismutase activity and peroxidase activity increased, ascorbate peroxidase activity and ascorbic acid only increased in 2-year high warming treatment, whereas in the 4-year warming treatment, active oxygen species, electrolyte leakage, UV-absorbing compounds and anthocyanins decreased. The 4-year warming treatment also significantly increased non-structural carbonhydrate and free proline accumulation for osmotic adjustment. The results of this study suggest that K. pygmaea could adapt to a warmer environment in the future.

  2. Quasar Rain: The Broad Emission Line Region as Condensations in the Warm Accretion Disk Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elvis, Martin

    2017-09-01

    The origin of the broad emission line region (BELR) in quasars and active galactic nuclei is still unclear. I propose that condensations form in the warm, radiation-pressure-driven, accretion disk wind of quasars creating the BEL clouds and uniting them with the other two manifestations of cool (˜104 K) gas in quasars, the low ionization phase of the warm absorbers (WAs) and the clouds causing X-ray eclipses. The cool clouds will condense quickly (days to years), before the WA outflows reach escape velocity (which takes months to centuries). Cool clouds form in equilibrium with the warm phase of the wind because the rapidly varying X-ray quasar continuum changes the force multiplier, causing pressure waves to move gas into stable locations in pressure-temperature space. The narrow range of two-phase equilibrium densities may explain the (luminosity){}1/2 scaling of the BELR size, while the scaling of cloud formation timescales could produce the Baldwin effect. These dense clouds have force multipliers of order unity and so cannot be accelerated to escape velocity. They fall back on a dynamical timescale (months to centuries), producing an inflow that rains down toward the central black hole. As they soon move at Mach ˜10-100 with respect to the WA outflow, these “raindrops” will be rapidly destroyed within months. This rain of clouds may produce the elliptical BELR orbits implied by velocity-resolved reverberation mapping in some objects and can explain the opening angle and destruction timescale of the narrow “cometary” tails of the clouds seen in X-ray eclipse observations. Some consequences and challenges of this “quasar rain” model are presented, along with several avenues for theoretical investigation.

  3. Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Tomonori; Kimura, Fujio; Kitoh, Akio

    2007-01-01

    SummaryClimate change due to global warming is of concern to the public and may cause significant changes in the hydrological regimes in arid/semi-arid areas including Mongolia, which locates at a boundary between arid and humid regions. However, general circulation models (GCMs) are not sufficient to evaluate climate change on a regional-scale. In this study, two kinds of dynamical downscaling (DDS), referred to as method-G and method-R, using a regional climate model (RCM) are applied to investigate the rainfall change over Mongolia in July due to the global warming. Method-G is a traditional DDS method in which an RCM is directly nested within a GCM, while method-R is newly suggested in this study and aims to improve the reproductivity of a regional climate. For current climate simulation, method-R uses reanalysis data as a boundary forcing of the RCM while a specially created boundary condition, in which projected changes of meteorological variables in a GCM simulation are added on reanalysis data, is used for global warming simulation. Compared with in situ observations, the rainfall amount for July is very well reproduced by the RCM, even in a smaller area of four subregions in Mongolia. Rainfall intensity by method-R is very close to actual observations; on the other hand, method-G fails to simulate heavy rainfall events stronger than 16 mm day -1. The two DDS methods show similar results with respect to the changes of precipitation in July due to the global warming, which are that precipitation decreases over northern and increases over southern Mongolia. In method-R, a decrease of precipitation of middle to heavy rainfall intensity, stronger than 4 mm day -1, contributes largely to the decreased July precipitation in northern Mongolia. Soil moisture over Mongolia also tends to decrease in July because of the combined effect caused by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of potential evaporation due to rising air temperature. This situation

  4. Rapid warming in Tibet, China: public perception, response and coping resources in urban Lhasa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Li; Cirendunzhu; Pengcuociren; Dawa; Woodward, Alistair; Liu, Xiaobo; Baimaciwang; Dazhen; Sang, Shaowei; Wan, Fangjun; Zhou, Lin; Xu, Junfang; Li, Xiaolu; Wu, Haixia; Yu, Baorong; Xiraoruodeng; Liu, Qiyong

    2013-08-27

    Tibet, average altitude more than 4,000 meters, is warming faster than anywhere else in China. The increase in temperatures may aggravate existing health problems and lead to the emergence of new risks. However, there are no actions being taken at present to protect population health due to limited understanding about the range and magnitude of health effects of climate change. The study was a cross-sectional survey of 619 respondents from urban Lhasa, Tibet in August 2012 with the aim to investigate public perceptions of risk, heat experiences, and coping resources. Respondents are aware of the warming that has occurred in Lhasa in recent years. Over 78% reported that rising temperature is either a "very" or "somewhat" serious threat to their own health, and nearly 40% reported they had experienced heat-related symptoms. Sex, age, education and income influenced perceived risks, health status, and heat experience. The vast majority of respondents reported that they had altered their behaviour on hot summer days. Bakuo, a sub-district at the city center, is considered especially vulnerable to heat because of sparse vegetation, high population density, poor dwelling conditions and a high proportion of low-income population. However, neighborhood social ties were stronger in Bakuo than other study locations. The study suggests that actions are needed now to minimize downside effects of rapid warming in Tibet, because of increasing human exposure to high temperatures and uneven distribution of the resources needed to cope.

  5. Global warming and mycoflora in the Baltic Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanns Kreisel

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The author discusses possible effects of global warming on distribution and ecology of larger fungi, and presents examples of suggested indicator species which apparently are spreading from south to north. Only Basidiomycetes are corncerned, while actually no case of non-lichenized Ascomycetes is known. A continued monitoring of the mentioned species is recommended.

  6. Marine Ecosystem Response to Rapid Climate Warming on the West Antarctic Peninsula (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducklow, H.; Baker, K. S.; Doney, S. C.; Fraser, B.; Martinson, D. G.; Meredith, M. P.; Montes-Hugo, M. A.; Sailley, S.; Schofield, O.; Sherrell, R. M.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Steinberg, D. K.

    2010-12-01

    The Palmer, Antarctica LTER builds on meteorological, ocean color and seabird observations since the late 1970s. It occupies annually in summer a regional-scale grid extending 700 km northward from Charcot Island to Anvers Island, and 200 km cross-shelf from the coast to the shelfbreak. In addition to routine CTD profiles and zooplankton tows throughout the grid, the observing system also includes Slocum Glider surveys and thermistor moorings. Geophysical changes include +6C atmospheric warming in winter since 1950, a 20% increase in heat content over the continental shelf since 1990, a surface ocean warming of +1C since 1950, an 83-day reduction in sea ice duration (advance 48 days later, retreat 35 days earlier) over the greater southern Bellingshausen Sea region from 1979-2007, intensification of westerly winds and differential changes in cloudiness. In response to these large changes in the regional climate, the marine ecosystem of the western Peninsula is changing at all trophic levels from diatoms to penguins. Ocean color indicates differential changes in phytoplankton stocks in response to regional decreases in sea ice cover. Surface chlorophyll has declined 89% in the north and increased 67% in the south. Antarctic krill and salps have declined and increased in our study area, respectively. Penguin diet sampling suggests changes in populations or distributions of the Antarctic Silverfish in the Anvers Island vicinity, possibly in response to ocean warming. Adélie penguins have declined 75% from 15000 to <3000 pairs at since 1975 in response to changes in food availability and increased late spring snow accumulation. Changes in pygoscelid penguin breeding populations in the Anvers Island vicinity of the West Antarctic Peninsula

  7. Unusual Warming in the Coastal Region of Northern South China Sea and Its Impact on the Sudden Intensification of Tropical Cyclone Tembin (2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe-Wen Zheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone Tembin (2012 passed twice and made landfall over south tip of Taiwan in August 2012. During its passage, an unusual sea surface warming was generated at 22.5∘N, 117∘E in the coastal region of northern South China Sea. Subsequently, Tembin passed over this extreme warming region and its intensity was enhanced drastically and suddenly from Category 1 to Category 3 within less than 1-day time interval. This unusual warming seems to largely prompt the intensification of Tembin. Next, the relationship between this extreme warming and rapid intensification of Tembin is identified by atmospheric model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF with updated time-varying lower boundary condition. In addition, given the tight relationship between generation of unusual warming in the shore region and following possible TC intensification, a series of numerical experiments based on oceanic model Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS were designed and executed to resolve the possible generated mechanism of the extreme warming. The results indicate that a distinct positive short-wave radiation influx anomaly may dominate the generation of the unusual warming in the shore region during Tembin’s passage. This result is validated by the distributions of free cloudy coverage shown in satellite infrared images.

  8. Rapid growth of black holes accompanied with hot or warm outflows exposed to anisotropic super-Eddington radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeo, Eishun; Inayoshi, Kohei; Ohsuga, Ken; Takahashi, Hiroyuki R.; Mineshige, Shin

    2018-02-01

    We perform two-dimensional radiation hydrodynamical simulations of accretion flows onto a black hole (BH) with a mass of 10^3≤M_BH/M_⊙ ⪉ 10^6 in order to study rapid growth of BHs in the early Universe. For spherically symmetric flows, hyper-Eddington accretion from outside the Bondi radius can occur unimpeded by radiation feedback when M_BH ≳ 10^4 M_⊙ (n_∞/10^5 cm^{-3})^{-1}(T_∞/10^4 K)^{3/2}, where the density and temperature of ambient gas are initially set to n∞ = 105 cm-3 and T∞ = 104 K. Here, we study accretion flows exposed to anisotropic radiation from a nuclear accretion disk with a luminosity higher than the Eddington value (LEdd) due to collimation towards the bipolar directions. We find that, unlike the spherically symmetric case, even less massive BHs with MBH radiating region due to the non-radial gas motions. Because of efficient recombination by hydrogen, the entire flow settles in neutral and warm gas with T ≃ 8000 K. The BH is fed at a rate of ˜5 × 104 LEdd/c2 (a half of the inflow rate from the Bondi radius). Moreover, radiation momentum absorbed by neutral hydrogen produces warm outflows towards the bipolar directions at ˜10 % of the BH feeding rate and with a velocity several times higher than the escaping value.

  9. Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

  10. Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100

  11. Historical aerial imagery reveals rapid frontal retreat following the 1920’s warming in southeast Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Anders Anker; Kjær, Kurt H.; Korsgaard, Niels Jákup

    in the similarity of the retreat following the early century warming and the latest decade, with a majority of the 132 glaciers exhibiting larger retreat rates in the early period. Furthermore, during the mid century cooling glaciers in southeast Greenland showed a surprisingly rapid response to the cooling......The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is undergoing massive changes in its frontal positions, velocity structure, and overall mass balance. Since 2000, marine and terrestrial terminating glaciers in southeast Greenland have experienced dramatic frontal retreat and dynamic thinning in response to increased...... demonstrate decadal sensitivity to temperature changes with rapid retreat following the early century warming (1919-1932) and glacial advance during a minor, but profound mid century cooling (1955-1972) succeeded by the present warming again leading to massive retreat. One significant finding lies...

  12. Observations of an atmospheric chemical equator and its implications for the tropical warm pool region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline F.; Allen, Grant; Watson, Nicola M.; Lee, James D.; Saxton, Julie E.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Vaughan, Geraint; Bower, Keith N.; Flynn, Michael J.; Crosier, Jonathan; Carver, Glenn D.; Harris, Neil R. P.; Parker, Robert J.; Remedios, John J.; Richards, Nigel A. D.

    2008-10-01

    This paper reports observations of a tropospheric chemical equator in the Western Pacific region during the Austral monsoon season, separating the polluted Northern Hemisphere from the cleaner Southern Hemisphere. Measurements of carbon monoxide, ozone, aerosol size/composition, and non-methane hydrocarbons were made from aircraft, flying north from Darwin, Australia as part of the Aerosol and Chemical Transport In tropical conVEction (ACTIVE) campaign. A chemical equator, defined as a sharp gradient in the chemical background, was found not to be coincident with the Intertropical Convergence Zone during this period. A pronounced interfacial region was identified between 8.5 and 10°S, where tracer mixing ratios increased rapidly within the boundary layer, e.g. CO from 40 ppbv to 160 ppbv within 0.5° latitude (50 km), with inhibited inter-hemispheric mixing. These measurements are discussed in context using a combination of meteorological and Earth-observing satellite imagery, back trajectory analysis and chemical model data with the conclusion that air flowing into and subsequently uplifted by the active convection of the Tropical Warm Pool (TWP) region in the Western Pacific is likely to be highly polluted, and will perturb the composition of the Tropical Tropopause Layer. The main source of CO and other pollutants within the TWP region is expected to be biomass burning, with extensive fires in North Sumatra and Thailand during this period. The sharp gradient in composition at the chemical equator seen here results from extensive burning to the north, contrasting with pristine maritime air advected from the Southern Indian Ocean by a strong land-based cyclone over the Northern Territory of Australia.

  13. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len; Buwen Dong

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This ...

  14. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and

  15. Local atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Shusaku; Aono, Kenji; Fukui, Shin

    2017-09-19

    In the extratropical regions, surface winds enhance upward heat release from the ocean to atmosphere, resulting in cold surface ocean: surface ocean temperature is negatively correlated with upward heat flux. However, in the western boundary currents and eddy-rich regions, the warmer surface waters compared to surrounding waters enhance upward heat release-a positive correlation between upward heat release and surface ocean temperature, implying that the ocean drives the atmosphere. The atmospheric response to warm mesoscale ocean eddies with a horizontal extent of a few hundred kilometers remains unclear because of a lack of observations. By conducting regional atmospheric model experiments, we show that, in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region, wintertime warm eddies heat the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), and accelerate westerly winds in the near-surface atmosphere via the vertical mixing effect, leading to wind convergence around the eastern edge of eddies. The warm-eddy-induced convergence forms local ascending motion where convective precipitation is enhanced, providing diabatic heating to the atmosphere above MABL. Our results indicate that warm eddies affect not only near-surface atmosphere but also free atmosphere, and possibly synoptic atmospheric variability. A detailed understanding of warm eddy-atmosphere interaction is necessary to improve in weather and climate projections.

  16. Warm and cold complex regional pain syndromes: differences beyond skin temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberle, T; Doganci, B; Krämer, H H; Geber, C; Fechir, M; Magerl, W; Birklein, F

    2009-02-10

    To investigate clinical differences in warm and cold complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) phenotypes. CRPS represents inhomogeneous chronic pain conditions; approximately 70% patients with CRPS have "warm" affected limbs and 30% have "cold" affected limbs. We examined 50 patients with "cold" and "warm" CRPS (n = 25 in each group). Both groups were matched regarding age, sex, affected limb, duration of CRPS, and CRPS I and II to assure comparability. Detailed medical history and neurologic status were assessed. Moreover, quantitative sensory testing (QST) was performed on the affected ipsilateral and clinically unaffected contralateral limbs. Compared with patients who had warm CRPS, patients who had cold CRPS more often reported a history of serious life events (p CRPS, the incidence of CRPS-related dystonia was increased (p CRPS (p CRPS were characterized by mechanical hyperalgesia (p CRPS) are associated with different clinical findings, beyond skin temperature changes. This might have implications for the understanding of CRPS pathophysiology.

  17. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H.E.; F. Seinstra; Werkhoven, B van.; Maassen, J.; M. van Meersbergen

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000...

  18. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

  19. Enhanced Warming with Atmospheric Blocking over European Region during Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, M.; Huang, J.; He, Y.

    2013-12-01

    A 62-yr (1948-2009) atmospheric blocking climatology over European region during winter is presented. The blocking activity in the European region shows a downward long-term trend. The relationship between blocking index and teleconnection patterns (TCPs) are examined. The statistical result shows the SCAND and the EA patterns can significant effect the blocking, approximately 40% of the blocking frequency variation can be explained by these two patterns. The frequency of European blocking is sensitive to the phase of the SCAND and EA. The average number of blocking days is 46 days during the positive phase of the SCAND which is twice higher than during the negative phase (18). During the negative phase of the EA, the average number of blocking days is 32, which is 54% greater during the negative phase of the EA than during the positive phase (21). The duration of the European blocking is also sensitive to the phase of the SCAND, but isn't sensitive for the EA. The 500 hPa geopotential height composite analysis also shows an evidence of a statistical relationship between the TCPs and blocking, showing that the positive (negative) phase of the SCAND (EA) provides the right conditions for the formation and sustenance of blocking activity over the European region. However, the blocking centers are located at Scandinavia and the Urals with positive of the SCAND and Siberia with negative of the EA. Finally, the downstream surface air temperature (SAT) impact associated with European winter blocking is discussed. The result shows that the SAT of Eurasian continent is significant different between high blocking index winters and low blocking index winters.

  20. Assessing summertime urban warming and the cooling efficacy of adaptation strategy in the Chengdu-Chongqing metropolitan region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

    2018-01-01

    Western China has experienced rapid urbanization since the Chinese reform process began in the late 1970s. It is essential to study the spatiotemporal patterns of warming induced by historical and future urban expansion and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the Chengdu-Chongqing metropolitan region (CCMR) in western China. The observed urban heat island intensity was ~1.5K in July 2009-2011. We employed the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model using real and projected urban land-use data to simulate near-surface air temperatures for a crop, urban in 2010 and urban in 2030 scenarios in summer over the CCMR. The difference between urban 2010 and cropland scenarios is 0.93K. Warming induced by urban development in 2010-2030 is in the range of 1-1.5K, but warming induced by future urban development will be less intense than historical warming over eastern China. We increased roof albedo to 0.8 to assess the difference in near-surface air temperature between cool roofs (CR) and urban 2030 scenarios, which represents the maximum potential impact of CR; we also assessed the cooling caused by green roofs (GR) (i.e., the difference between the GR and urban 2030 scenarios). Greater cooling occurs during the day due to reflection of solar radiation by CR and additional water evaporation by GR. We provided an evaluation criterion, cooling efficiency (CE), to measure the local performances of CR and GR. CE represents the local cooling capability based on urban warming rather than absolute cooling over a larger spatial scale. CE reveals a lower nocturnal cooling capability, which poses a significant challenge to the applications of CR and GR at night. CR has a better cooling capability across CCMR than GR, only when roof albedo of CR exceeds 0.68. Measures enacted should be appropriately adjusted to optimize for cost, technology and energy savings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Differentiated responses of apple tree floral phenology to global warming in contrasting climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Michel eLegave

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation declines and heat accumulation increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift towards responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

  2. Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legave, Jean-Michel; Guédon, Yann; Malagi, Gustavo; El Yaacoubi, Adnane; Bonhomme, Marc

    2015-01-01

    The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

  3. Diurnal warming in shallow coastal seas: Observations from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Minnett, P. J.; Berkelmans, R.; Hendee, J.; Manfrino, C.

    2014-07-01

    A good understanding of diurnal warming in the upper ocean is important for the validation of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) against in-situ buoy data and for merging satellite SSTs taken at different times of the same day. For shallow coastal regions, better understanding of diurnal heating could also help improve monitoring and prediction of ecosystem health, such as coral reef bleaching. Compared to its open ocean counterpart which has been studied extensively and modeled with good success, coastal diurnal warming has complicating localized characteristics, including coastline geometry, bathymetry, water types, tidal and wave mixing. Our goal is to characterize coastal diurnal warming using two extensive in-situ temperature and weather datasets from the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Results showed clear daily warming patterns in most stations from both datasets. For the three Caribbean stations where solar radiation is the main cause of daily warming, the mean diurnal warming amplitudes were about 0.4 K at depths of 4-7 m and 0.6-0.7 K at shallower depths of 1-2 m; the largest warming value was 2.1 K. For coral top temperatures of the GBR, 20% of days had warming amplitudes >1 K, with the largest >4 K. The bottom warming at shallower sites has higher daily maximum temperatures and lower daily minimum temperatures than deeper sites nearby. The averaged daily warming amplitudes were shown to be closely related to daily average wind speed and maximum insolation, as found in the open ocean. Diurnal heating also depends on local features including water depth, location on different sections of the reef (reef flat vs. reef slope), the relative distance from the barrier reef chain (coast vs. lagoon stations vs. inner barrier reef sites vs. outer rim sites); and the proximity to the tidal inlets. In addition, the influence of tides on daily temperature changes and its relative importance compared to solar radiation was quantified by

  4. Sustainable groundwater management system based on the regional hydrological cycle in the warm humid country, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, J.; Crest Kumamoto Groundwater Team

    2011-12-01

    The increase of precipitation variability with the global warming and the rapid population growth lead to the shortage of water resources on a global scale. Groundwater bocome attracted as a relatively stable water resource because of its larger reservoir and a longer residence time. As our country belongs to a warm humid climate with much precipitation and a steep topography, the regional hydrological cycle is extremely active. Surface water could be taken easily and was often used to a water supply until now, but recently groundwater is taking the place of surface water because of the stability of water supply. While in our hydro-climatic condition, the sustainable use of groundwater is possible under the appropriative management, that is, groundwater pumping rate does not exceed the recharge rate in a basin. For the sustainable use of groundwater resources, this project aims to develop new technologies relating to the quantity and quality aspects of groundwater resources. For the precise understanding of groundwater flow system, new technologies will be developed, like frequency changeable electric resistivity exploration method to evaluate an aquifer structure. There are many problems about groundwater quality including nitrate-nitrogen contamination and toxic substances from the domestic and industrial waste disposals. It is necessary to understand the production mechanism to prevent groundwater contamination and the degradation process of nitrate-nitrogen contamination to improve the water quality. Therefore this project will develop new technologies including the reduction of NO3=N and natural toxic substances loads before groundwater recharge, the on-site removal of contaminants from aquifers, and simple and effective equipment to improve groundwater quality after pumping. Furthermore, this project will also develop a new biological monitoring technique for local groundwater users to notice the contamination at a glance; change colar fish by specific ion

  5. Signatures of global warming and regional climate shift in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Roshin, R.P.; Narvekar, J.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Vivekanandan, E.

    The impact of global warming in the recent decade is shown by the disruption in the natural decadal cycle in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Arabian Sea after 1995. We propose a regional climate shift after 1995, the signature of which...

  6. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-E. Park

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

  7. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

    2017-09-01

    Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

  8. Ventimolina stellata gen. et sp. nov. (Haptophyta, Papposphaeraceae) from warm water regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Helge Abildhauge; Østergaard, Jette B.; Cros, Lluïsa

    2015-01-01

    It has been known for some time that the distinctive polar weakly calcified coccolithophores are also present in samples from lower latitudes. While polar species may actually have a geographic range that vastly extends beyond the polar realms, it is often the case that the warm water regions...... contribute species that can be allocated to genera previously described based on polar material. We are currently in the process of formally dealing with the warm water species diversity affiliated with the family Papposphaeraceae. In this paper we describe a new genus and species Ventimolina stellata based...

  9. Slow Adaptation in the Face of Rapid Warming Leads to the Collapse of Atlantic Cod in the Gulf of Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, A. J.; Alexander, M. A.; Hernandez, C.; Kerr, L. A.; Le Bris, A.; Mills, K.; Nye, J. A.; Record, N.; Scannell, H. A.; Scott, J. D.; Sherwood, G. D.; Thomas, A. C.

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is altering conditions in all marine ecosystems, but the pace of change is not uniform. Rapid changes in environmental conditions pose a challenge for resource management, especially when available tools or policies assume the environment is stationary. Between 2004 and 2013, the Gulf of Maine and northwest Atlantic Shelf warmed at a rate that few large marine ecosystems have ever experienced. This warming was associated with a northward shift in the Gulf Stream and with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The unprecedented warming led to reduced recruitment and enhanced mortality of Atlantic cod. Fisheries management has built-in feedbacks designed to reduce quotas as populations decline, but the management process could not keep pace with the rapid temperature-related changes in the Gulf of Maine cod stock. Future recovery of this fishery now depends on both sound management and favorable temperatures. The experience in the Gulf of Maine highlights the need to incorporate environmental factors into resource management and to build resiliency in coupled social-ecological systems. It also highlights a need for scientific and policy guidance for managing species threatened by future warming.

  10. Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

    2015-07-22

    Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (T(m)) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the "warming hole" over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depend on the calculation methods of T(m). Existing global analyses calculate T(m) from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using T(m) calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2.

  11. Regional Contrasts of the Warming Rate over Land Significantly Depend on the Calculation Methods of Mean Air Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

    2015-01-01

    Global analyses of surface mean air temperature (Tm) are key datasets for climate change studies and provide fundamental evidences for global warming. However, the causes of regional contrasts in the warming rate revealed by such datasets, i.e., enhanced warming rates over the northern high latitudes and the “warming hole” over the central U.S., are still under debate. Here we show these regional contrasts depend on the calculation methods of Tm. Existing global analyses calculate Tm from daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). We found that T2 has a significant standard deviation error of 0.23 °C/decade in depicting the regional warming rate from 2000 to 2013 but can be reduced by two-thirds using Tm calculated from observations at four specific times (T4), which samples diurnal cycle of land surface air temperature more often. From 1973 to 1997, compared with T4, T2 significantly underestimated the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimated the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. The ratio of the warming rate over China to that over the U.S. reduces from 2.3 by T2 to 1.4 by T4. This study shows that the studies of regional warming can be substantially improved by T4 instead of T2. PMID:26198976

  12. The predicted circulation response to global warming and implications for regional hydroclimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Isla; Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Shaw, Tiffany

    2016-04-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect regional hydroclimate around the world. To leading order, the increased ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture as it warms, intensifies moisture transports, making sub-tropical dry regions drier and mid- to high latitude wet regions wetter. But regional changes in hydroclimate will also depend on how the atmospheric circulation responds to warming. Here, the predictions of the future of the mid-latitude circulation by the current generation of global climate models will be discussed, with a particular focus on circulation changes that impact on regional hydroclimate. In the Northern Hemisphere winter, stationary wave changes are a leading order effect and impact on both North American and European hydroclimate. However, in certain regions, models exhibit considerable diversity in this response, motivating the need for improved understanding of the mechanisms involved and the reasons behind such a model spread. This is particularly true in the Pacific-North American sector during winter and so the mechanisms involved in circulation changes in this region and the reason for the inter-model spread will be discussed in detail.

  13. A Rapidly Evolving Active Region NOAA 8032 observed on April ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1997-04-15

    The active region NOAA 8032 of April 15, 1997 was observed to evolve rapidly. The GOES X-ray data showed a number of sub-flares and two C-class flares during the 8-9 hours of its evolution. The magnetic evolution of this region is studied to ascertain its role in flare production. Large changes were observed in magnetic ...

  14. Morphology of ionospheric F2 region variability associated with sudden stratospheric warmings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Sumedha; Upadhayaya, A. K.

    2017-07-01

    The effect of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on the F2 region ionosphere has been extensively analyzed for the major event of year 2009, apart from a few reports on other major and minor events. Morphology of ionospheric responses during SSW can be better comprehended by analyzing such warming events under different solar, geomagnetic, and meteorological conditions. We investigate the features of F2 region variability following the SSW events of 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, using ionosonde data from the Asian region covering a broad latitudinal range from 26.6°N to 45.1°N. We find perceptible ionospheric variations in electron densities during these warming events which is accompanied by a large variation of 117% within enhancements, as compared to a meagre variation of 11% within depressions, during these events. We also examine 6 months data at these latitudes and longitudes and find that the maximum and minimum variations in F2 layer critical frequency are observed during each SSW period. The influence of quasi-stationary 16 day planetary waves is seen during these SSW events. Further, a recently proposed parameter "SSW integrated strength" by Vieira et al. (2017) to characterize SSW event with respect to ionosphere is also examined. It is seen that it does not fit well for these seven SSW events at these latitudes and longitudes.

  15. Effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterflies in boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westwood, A R; Blair, D

    2010-08-01

    We examined the effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterfly species in boreal forest ecosystems in Manitoba, Canada. For the period 1971-2004, the mean monthly temperatures in January, September, and December increased significantly, as did the mean temperatures for several concurrent monthly periods. The mean annual temperature increased ≈ 0.05°C/yr over the study period. The annual number of frost-free days and degree-day accumulations increased as well. We measured the response of 19 common butterfly species to these temperature changes with the date of first appearance, week of peak abundance, and the length of flight period over the 33-yr period of 1972-2004. Although adult butterfly response was variable for spring and summer months, 13 of 19 species showed a significant (P butterfly species significantly affected by the warming trend. The early autumn and winter months warmed significantly, and butterflies seem to be responding to this warming trend with a change in the length of certain life stages. Two species, Junonia coenia and Euphydryas phaeton, increased their northerly ranges by ≈ 150 and 70 km, respectively. Warmer autumns and winters may be providing opportunities for range extensions of more southerly butterfly species held at bay by past climatic conditions.

  16. Radionuclides in ornithogenic sediments as evidence for recent warming in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nie, Yaguang [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Key Laboratory of Ion Beam Bioengineering, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Pollution Control Technology of Anhui Province, Hefei, Anhui 230031 (China); Xu, Liqiang [School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009 (China); Liu, Xiaodong, E-mail: ycx@ustc.edu.cn [Institute of Polar Environment, School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Emslie, Steven D. [Department of Biology and Marine Biology, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 601 S. College Road, Wilmington, NC 28403 (United States)

    2016-07-01

    Radionuclides including {sup 210}Pb, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 137}Cs were analyzed in eight ornithogenic sediment profiles from McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea region, East Antarctica. Equilibration between {sup 210}Pb and {sup 226}Ra were reached in all eight profiles, enabling the determination of chronology within the past two centuries through the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model. Calculated fluxes of both {sup 210}Pb and {sup 137}Cs varied drastically among four of the profiles (MB4, MB6, CC and CL2), probably due to differences in their sedimentary environments. In addition, we found the flux data exhibiting a clear decreasing gradient in accordance with their average deposition rate, which was in turn related to the specific location of the profiles. We believe this phenomenon may correspond to global warming of the last century, since warming-induced surface runoff would bring more inflow water and detritus to the coring sites, thus enhancing the difference among the profiles. To verify this hypothesis, the deposition rate against age of the sediments was calculated based on their determined chronology, which showed ascending trends in all four profiles. The significant increase in deposition rates over the last century is probably attributable to recent warming, implying a potential utilization of radionuclides as environmental indicators in this region. - Highlights: • {sup 210}Pb, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 137}Cs were measured in ornithogenic sediment profiles. • Chronology within 200 years was determined through Constant Rate of Supply model. • Calculated nuclide fluxes decreased with average deposition rate and locations. • Deposition rate over time indicated warming which caused the flux gradient.

  17. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2017-03-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  18. Regional Rapid Growth in Cities and Urbanization in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanadorn Phuttharak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to investigate the driving forces affecting regional rapid growth in Thailand, along with its impact, to understand the dynamics of urbanization and how it affects cities. The study selected UdonThani Province, Thailand, as a case study. This study collected data from academic and semi-academic documents, semi-structured interviews, participatory and non-participatory observations, and group discussion. The informants were residents within municipalities, government, and private officers related to city development, and NGOs. The results found that the driving forces affecting regional rapid growth in UdonThani province include: 1 historic events from World War II to the Cold War; 2 events during the Vietnam War; 3 Capitalist policies; and 4 the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC. The study also found impacts of regional rapid growth in UdonThani province including 1 land use change; 2 economic and societal change; 3 road and traffic problems; and 4 waste disposal problems.

  19. Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjaer, Kurt H.; Bevis, Michael

    2014-01-01

    and northwest Greenland. Here, we show that the northeast Greenland ice stream, which extends more than 600 km into the interior of the ice sheet, is now undergoing sustained dynamic thinning, linked to regional warming, after more than a quarter of a century of stability. This sector of the Greenland ice sheet...... is of particular interest, because the drainage basin area covers 16% of the ice sheet (twice that of Jakobshavn Isbrae) and numerical model predictions suggest no significant mass loss for this sector, leading to an under-estimation of future global sea-level rise. The geometry of the bedrock and monotonic trend...... in glacier speed-up and mass loss suggests that dynamic drawdown of ice in this region will continue in the near future....

  20. Inductive analysis about the impact of climate warming on regional geomorphic evolution in arid area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anayit, Mattohti; Abulizi, Mailiya

    2016-04-01

    Climate change on the surface of earth will produce a chain reaction among so many global natural environmental elements. Namely, all the issues will be affected by the climate change, just like the regional water environment, formation and development of landscape, plants and animals living environment, the survival of microorganisms, the human economic environment and health, and the whole social environment changes at well. But because of slow frequency of climate change and it is volatility change, its influence on other factors and the overall environmental performance is not obvious, and its reflection performs slowly. Using regional weather data, we calculated qualitatively and quantitatively and did analysis the impact of climate warming on Xinjiang (a province of China) geomorphic evolution elements, including the ground weather, erosion rate, collapse change, landslide occurrences changes and impact debris flow, combining the field survey and indoor test methods. Key words: climate change; the geomorphic induction; landscape change in river basin; Xinjiang

  1. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

    2017-02-14

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

  2. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

    2017-01-01

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

  3. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

    2017-02-01

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

  4. Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

    2017-12-01

    Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

  5. A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...... precipitation rates that contribute relatively more to the total and rates that contribute relatively less. The behavior is roughly the same as the results of the numerical models and is insensitive to characteristics of the baseline climate, such as average precipitation, frequency of rain days, and the shape...... parameter of the precipitation's gamma distribution. Changes in the normalized precipitation distribution give a more consistent constraint on how precipitation intensity may change when climate changes than do changes in the normormalized distribution. The analysis does not apply to extreme precipitation...

  6. Impacts of climate warming on the frozen ground and eco-hydrology in the Yellow River source region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Yue; Yang, Dawen; Gao, Bing; Wang, Taihua; Chen, Jinsong; Chen, Yun; Wang, Yuhan; Zheng, Guanheng

    2017-12-15

    The Yellow River source region is located in the transition region between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The region has experienced severe climate change, especially air temperature increases, in past decades. In this study, we employed a geomorphology-based eco-hydrological model (GBEHM) to assess the impacts of climate change on the frozen ground and eco-hydrological processes in the region. Based on a long-term simulation from 1981 to 2015, we found that the areal mean maximum thickness of seasonally frozen ground ranged from 1.1-1.8m and decreased by 1.2cm per year. Additionally, the ratio of the permafrost area to the total area decreased by 1.1% per year. These decreasing trends are faster than the average in China because the study area is on the sensitive margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The annual runoff exhibited variations similar to those of the annual precipitation (R(2)=0.85), although the annual evapotranspiration (ET) exhibited an increasing trend (14.3mm/10a) similar to that of the annual mean air temperature (0.66°C/10a). The runoff coefficient (annual runoff divided by annual precipitation) displayed a decreasing trend because of the increasing ET, and the vegetation responses to climate warming and permafrost degradation were manifested as increases in the leaf area index (LAI) and ET at the start of the growing season. Furthermore, the results showed that changes to the frozen ground depth affected vegetation growth. Notably, a rapid decrease in the frozen ground depth (eco-hydrological processes in the headwater area of the Yellow River have changed because of permafrost degradation, and these changes could further influence the water resources availability in the middle and lower reaches of the basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Variation of radiative forcings and global warming potentials from regional aviation NOx emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skowron, Agnieszka; Lee, David S.; De León, Ruben R.

    2015-03-01

    The response to hemispherical and regional aircraft NOx emissions is explored by using two climate metrics: radiative forcing (RF) and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The global chemistry transport model, MOZART-3 CTM, is applied in this study for a series of incremental aircraft NOx emission integrations to different regions. It was found that the sensitivity of chemical responses per unit emission rate from regional aircraft NOx emissions varies with size of aircraft NOx emission rate and that climate metric values decrease with increasing aircraft NOx emission rates, except for Southeast Asia. Previous work has recognized that aircraft NOx GWPs may vary regionally. However, the way in which these regional GWPs are calculated are critical. Previous studies have added a fixed amount of NOx to different regions. This approach can heavily bias the results of a regional GWP because of the well-established sensitivity of O3 production to background NOx whereby the Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE) is greater at small background NOx. Thus, even a small addition of NOx in a clean-air area can produce a large O3 response. Using this 'fixed addition' method of 0.035 Tg(N) yr-1, results in the greatest effect observed for North Atlantic and Brazil, ∼10.0 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1. An alternative 'proportional approach' is also taken that preserves the subtle balance of local NOx-O3-CH4 systems with the existing emission patterns of aircraft and background NOx, whereby a proportional amount of aircraft NOx, 5% (N) yr-1, is added to each region in order to determine the response. This results in the greatest effect observed for North Pacific that with its net NOx RF of 23.7 mW m-2/Tg(N) yr-1 is in contrast with the 'fixed addition' method. For determining regional NOx GWPs, it is argued that the 'proportional' approach gives more representative results. However, a constraint of both approaches is that the regional GWP determined is dependent on the relative global emission pattern

  8. Modeling and predicting seasonal influenza transmission in warm regions using climatological parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radina P Soebiyanto

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Influenza transmission is often associated with climatic factors. As the epidemic pattern varies geographically, the roles of climatic factors may not be unique. Previous in vivo studies revealed the direct effect of winter-like humidity on air-borne influenza transmission that dominates in regions with temperate climate, while influenza in the tropics is more effectively transmitted through direct contact. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using time series model, we analyzed the role of climatic factors on the epidemiology of influenza transmission in two regions characterized by warm climate: Hong Kong (China and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA. These two regions have comparable temperature but distinctly different rainfall. Specifically we employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model along with climatic parameters as measured from ground stations and NASA satellites. Our studies showed that including the climatic variables as input series result in models with better performance than the univariate model where the influenza cases depend only on its past values and error signal. The best model for Hong Kong influenza was obtained when Land Surface Temperature (LST, rainfall and relative humidity were included as input series. Meanwhile for Maricopa County we found that including either maximum atmospheric pressure or mean air temperature gave the most improvement in the model performances. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results showed that including the environmental variables generally increases the prediction capability. Therefore, for countries without advanced influenza surveillance systems, environmental variables can be used for estimating influenza transmission at present and in the near future.

  9. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  10. A reduction in marine primary productivity driven by rapid warming over the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Roxy, M.K.; Modi, A.; Murtugudde, R.; Valsala, V.; Panickal, S.; PrasannaKumar, S.; Ravichandran, M.; Vichi, M.; Levy, M.

    [Lee et al., 2005]. The need to understand the long-term trends in phytoplankton blooms in response to the rising temperatures can hardly be overemphasized. 2. Data and Methods The recently available, quality controlled chlorophyll data blended from... in chlorophyll and related physical entities. Time series of chlorophyll, SST, static stability and wind speed anomaliesare computed for the region (50-65°E, 5-25°N, inset box in Figure 2) where the trends in chlorophyll concentrations are the largest. SST...

  11. Megafaunal communities in rapidly warming fjords along the West Antarctic Peninsula: hotspots of abundance and beta diversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura J Grange

    Full Text Available Glacio-marine fjords occur widely at high latitudes and have been extensively studied in the Arctic, where heavy meltwater inputs and sedimentation yield low benthic faunal abundance and biodiversity in inner-middle fjords. Fjord benthic ecosystems remain poorly studied in the subpolar Antarctic, including those in extensive fjords along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP. Here we test ecosystem predictions from Arctic fjords on three subpolar, glacio-marine fjords along the WAP. With seafloor photographic surveys we evaluate benthic megafaunal abundance, community structure, and species diversity, as well as the abundance of demersal nekton and macroalgal detritus, in soft-sediment basins of Andvord, Flandres and Barilari Bays at depths of 436-725 m. We then contrast these fjord sites with three open shelf stations of similar depths. Contrary to Arctic predictions, WAP fjord basins exhibited 3 to 38-fold greater benthic megafaunal abundance than the open shelf, and local species diversity and trophic complexity remained high from outer to inner fjord basins. Furthermore, WAP fjords contained distinct species composition, substantially contributing to beta and gamma diversity at 400-700 m depths along the WAP. The abundance of demersal nekton and macroalgal detritus was also substantially higher in WAP fjords compared to the open shelf. We conclude that WAP fjords are important hotspots of benthic abundance and biodiversity as a consequence of weak meltwater influences, low sedimentation disturbance, and high, varied food inputs. We postulate that WAP fjords differ markedly from their Arctic counterparts because they are in earlier stages of climate warming, and that rapid warming along the WAP will increase meltwater and sediment inputs, deleteriously impacting these biodiversity hotspots. Because WAP fjords also provide important habitat and foraging areas for Antarctic krill and baleen whales, there is an urgent need to develop better

  12. Ionospheric variations during sudden stratospheric warming in the high- and mid-latitude regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasyukevich, Anna; Voeykov, Sergey; Mylnikova, Anna

    2017-04-01

    The ionospheric dynamic in the high- and middle-latitude regions during the periods of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) was studied by using the international network of phase dual-frequency GPS/GLONASS receivers and the vertical sounding data. Twelve SSW events that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere 2006 through 2013 were considered. In order to identify the possible response of the ionosphere to SSW events, we carried out the analysis of the total electron (TEC) and the F2-layer maximum electron density (NmF2) deviations from the background level. We have also studied changes of the level of total electron content (TEC) wave-like variations characterized by a special index WTEC. The index reflects the intensity of medium- and large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances. The dynamics of the high- and middle-latitude ionosphere at the points near the SSW areas was found to differ from the regular. For a large number of events, it is shown that, despite quiet geomagnetic conditions, a noticeable decrease in the NmF2 and TEC values (by 5-10% relative to the background level) is observed during the SSW evolution and maximum stages. On the contrary, for 10-20 days after the SSW maxima, NmF2 and TEC significantly exceed the monthly averaged values. Moreover, these electron density changes are observed for both strong and weak stratospheric warmings, and are recorded mainly during daytime. The observed SSW effects in the polar and mid-latitude ionosphere are assumed to be probably associated with the changes in the neutral composition at the thermospheric heights that affect the F2-layer electron density. The study is supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research under Grant No. 16-35-60018, as well as by the RF President Grant of Public Support for RF Leading Scientific Schools (NSh-6894.2016.5).

  13. Effects of warming and nitrogen fertilization on GHG flux in the permafrost region of an alpine meadow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Hu, Zhaoyong; Song, Chunlin

    2017-05-01

    The limited number of in situ measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) flux during soil freeze-thaw cycles in permafrost regions limits our ability to accurately predict how the alpine ecosystem carbon sink or source function will vary under future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. An alpine meadow in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was selected, and a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was carried out to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH4 and N2O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. The results showed that: (i) warming (4.5 °C) increased the average seasonal Re, CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 73.5%, 65.9% and 431.6%, respectively. N fertilization (4 g N m-2) alone had no significant effect on GHG flux; the interaction of warming and N fertilization enhanced CH4 uptake by 10.3% and N2O emissions by 27.2% than warming, while there was no significant effect on the Re; (ii) the average seasonal fluxes of Re, CH4 and N2O were MG > LG > EG, and Re and CH4 uptake were most sensitive to the soil freezing process instead of soil thawing process; (iii) surface soil temperature was the main driving factor of the Re and CH4 fluxes, and the N2O flux was mainly affected by daily rainfall; (iv) in the growing season, warming increased greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of the alpine meadow by 74.5%, the N fertilization decreased GWP of the warming plots by 13.9% but it was not statistically significant. These results indicate that (i) relative to future climate warming (or permafrost thawing), there could be a hysteresis of GHG flux in the alpine meadow of permafrost region; (ii) under the scenario of climate warming, increasing N deposition has limited impacts on the feedback of GHG flux of the alpine meadow.

  14. From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

    2016-06-01

    Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future

  15. Analysing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5 °C global warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

    2017-04-01

    At the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, a reaffirmation to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. Hence, providing a detailed analysis of the projected climate changes in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario will allow the African society to undertake measures for adaptation in order to mitigate potential negative consequences. In order to provide such climate change information, the existing CORDEX Africa ensemble for RCP2.6 scenario simulations has systematically been increased by conducting additional REMO simulations using data from various global circulation models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions. Based on this ensemble, which now consists of eleven CORDEX Africa RCP2.6 regional climate model simulations from three RCMs (forced with different GCMs), various temperature and precipitation indices such as number of cold/hot days and nights, duration of the rainy season, the amount of rainfall in the rainy seasons and the number of dry spells have been calculated for a 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The applied method to define the 1.5 °C global warming period has been already applied in the IMPACT2C project. In our presentation, we will discuss the analysis of the climate indices in a 1.5 °C global warming world for the CORDEX-Africa region. Amongst presenting the magnitude of projected changes, we will also address the question for selected indices if the changes projected in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario are already larger than the climate variability and we will also draw links to the changes projected under a more extreme scenario.

  16. Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjaer, Kurt H.; Bevis, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest contributors to global sea-level rise over the past 20 years, accounting for 0.5 mm yr(-1) of a total of 3.2 mm yr(-1). A significant portion of this contribution is associated with the speed-up of an increased number of glaciers in southeast...... and northwest Greenland. Here, we show that the northeast Greenland ice stream, which extends more than 600 km into the interior of the ice sheet, is now undergoing sustained dynamic thinning, linked to regional warming, after more than a quarter of a century of stability. This sector of the Greenland ice sheet...... is of particular interest, because the drainage basin area covers 16% of the ice sheet (twice that of Jakobshavn Isbrae) and numerical model predictions suggest no significant mass loss for this sector, leading to an under-estimation of future global sea-level rise. The geometry of the bedrock and monotonic trend...

  17. Understanding the future impacts of rapid ocean warming and acidification on the carbonate balance of coral reefs. ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Dove, S. G.

    2011-12-01

    Marine organisms and ecosystems are undergoing fundamental changes as a consequence of ocean warming and acidification, which must be understood if we are to anticipate and respond to the resulting changes to ecosystem services and functions. We have been investigating potential changes to the calcification and bioerosion rates of coral reefs using flow-through mesocosms at Heron Island on the southern Great Barrier Reef. In these experiments, we have been manipulating the temperature and pCO2 in order to simulate future ocean conditions described by IPCC scenarios (specifically B2, A1FI). We have also created pre-industrial conditions for comparison. Importantly, our system not only provides fine control over experimental conditions but also allows temperature and pCO2 to fluctuate with daily and seasonal changes measured (integrated over 3 h) at specific locations of interest on the Heron Island Reef, which allows a more 'realistic' analysis of the combined influences of ocean warming and acidification. In our first set of experiments, we have examined the impact of IPCC scenarios (year 2100) for a range of ecosystem phenomena relating to the carbonate balance of coral reefs including (1) phototrophic microborers within the dead skeletons of two coral species; (2) calcareous coralline algae, (3) turf algal communities in the presence and absence of grazing damselfish; (4) the calcification, growth, mortality and recruitment of the reef-building corals, and (5) microbial communities associated with corals. The overall conclusion of the studies conducted to date strongly suggests rapid movement to a negative carbonate balance for shallow water tropical coral reefs even under medium (B2) climate scenarios that involve SST increases of approximately +1.5oC and +250 ppm pCO2. Our conclusion is based on observations regarding key organisms that are involved in establishing the carbonate balance of coral reef organisms, and on the observed impacts of these conditions on

  18. Seasonal patterns of SST diurnal variation over the Tropical Warm Pool region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haifeng; Beggs, Helen; Wang, Xiao Hua; Kiss, Andrew E.; Griffin, Christopher

    2016-11-01

    Five year (2010-2014) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sea surface temperature (SST) data produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have been validated against drifting buoy data and then used to study the seasonal patterns of the SST diurnal variation (DV) events over the Tropical Warm Pool region (TWP, 25°S-15°N, 90°E-170°E). The in situ validation results illustrate the overall good quality of the AVHRR SST data set, although an average 0.19 K underestimation of the daytime measurements has been observed. The nighttime observations are in good agreement with in situ buoys with an average bias of 0.03 and a 0.30 K standard deviation of the biases. This SST data set is then used to characterize the SST DV seasonal patterns, together with wind speeds, daily maximum solar shortwave insolation (SSImax), and latent heat flux (LHF). A double-peak seasonal pattern of SST DV is observed over the study region: the strongest DVs are found in March and October and the weakest in June. Sensitivity tests of DV to wind, SSImax, and LHF are conducted. The results indicate (1) different morning and early afternoon winds (7 A.M. to 2 P.M. local time, LT) affect DV by as much as 0.73 K when the half-daily (defined as 2 A.M. to 2 P.M. LT in this study) average winds are fixed between 2 and 3 m s-1; (2) SSImax levels regulate DV less significantly (<0.68 K) under fixed winds; and (3) LHF effects on DV are relatively weak (<0.35 K).

  19. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Freund

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

  20. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

    2017-11-01

    Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

  1. Impact of the model resolution on the simulation of elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas, Greater Alpine Region, and Rocky mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzi, Elisa; Mortarini, Luca; Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost

    2017-04-01

    The enhancement of warming rates with elevation, the so-called elevation-dependent warming (EDW), is one of the clearest regional expressions of global warming. Real sentinels of climate and environmental changes, mountains have experienced more rapid and intense warming rates in the recent decades, leading to serious impacts on mountain ecosystems and downstream societies, some of which are already occurring. In this study we use the historical and scenario simulations of one state-of-the-art global climate model, the EC-Earth GCM, run at five different spatial resolutions, from ˜125 km to ˜16 km, to explore the existence, characteristics and driving mechanisms of EDW in three different mountain regions of the world - the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Greater Alpine Region and the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas. The aim of this study is twofold: to investigate the impact (if any) of increasing model resolution on the representation of EDW and to highlight possible differences in this phenomenon and its driving mechanisms in different mountain regions of the northern hemisphere. Preliminary results indicate that autumn (September to November) is the only season in which EDW is simulated by the model in both the maximum and the minimum temperature, in all three regions and across all model resolutions. Regional differences emerge in the other seasons: for example, the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas is the only area in which EDW is detected in winter. As for the analysis of EDW drivers, we identify albedo and downward longwave radiation as being the most important variables for EDW, in all three areas considered and in all seasons. Further these results are robust to changes in model resolution, even though a clearer signal is associated with finer resolutions. We finally use the highest resolution EC-Earth simulations available (˜16 km) to identify what areas, within the three considered mountain ranges, are expected to undergo a significant reduction of snow or ice cover

  2. Development of probability distributions for regional climate change from uncertain global mean warming and an uncertain scaling relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available To produce probability distributions for regional climate change in surface temperature and precipitation, a probability distribution for global mean temperature increase has been combined with the probability distributions for the appropriate scaling variables, i.e. the changes in regional temperature/precipitation per degree global mean warming. Each scaling variable is assumed to be normally distributed. The uncertainty of the scaling relationship arises from systematic differences between the regional changes from global and regional climate model simulations and from natural variability. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty to the total variance of the scaling variable are estimated from simulated temperature and precipitation data in a suite of regional climate model experiments conducted within the framework of the EU-funded project PRUDENCE, using an Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA. For the area covered in the 2001–2004 EU-funded project SWURVE, five case study regions (CSRs are considered: NW England, the Rhine basin, Iberia, Jura lakes (Switzerland and Mauvoisin dam (Switzerland. The resulting regional climate changes for 2070–2099 vary quite significantly between CSRs, between seasons and between meteorological variables. For all CSRs, the expected warming in summer is higher than that expected for the other seasons. This summer warming is accompanied by a large decrease in precipitation. The uncertainty of the scaling ratios for temperature and precipitation is relatively large in summer because of the differences between regional climate models. Differences between the spatial climate-change patterns of global climate model simulations make significant contributions to the uncertainty of the scaling ratio for temperature. However, no meaningful contribution could be found for the scaling ratio for precipitation due to the small number of global climate models in the PRUDENCE project and natural variability, which is

  3. Rapid northward spread of a zooxanthellate coral enhanced by artificial structures and sea warming in the western Mediterranean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduard Serrano

    Full Text Available The hermatypic coral Oculina patagonica can drive a compositional shift in shallow water benthic marine communities in the northwestern Mediterranean. Here, we analyze a long-term, large-scale observational dataset to characterize the dynamics of the species' recent northward range shift along the coast of Catalonia and examine the main factors that could have influenced this spread. The variation in the distributional range of Oculina patagonica was examined by monitoring 223 locations including natural and artificial habitats along >400 km of coastline over the last 19 years (1992-2010. Abundance of the species increased from being present in one location in 1992 to occur on 19% of the locations in 2010, and exhibited an acceleration of its spreading over time driven by the join action of neighborhood and long-distance dispersal. However, the pattern of spread diverged between artificial and natural habitats. A short lag phase and a high slope on the exponential phase characterized the temporal pattern of spread on artificial habitats in contrast to that observed on natural ones. Northward expansion has occurred at the fastest rate (22 km year(-1 reported for a coral species thus far, which is sufficiently fast to cope with certain climate warming predictions. The pattern of spread suggests that this process is mediated by the interplay of (i the availability of open space provided by artificial habitats, (ii the seawater temperature increase with the subsequent extension of the growth period, and (iii the particular biological features of O. patagonica (current high growth rates, early reproduction, and survival to low temperature and in polluted areas. These results are indicative of an ongoing fundamental modification of temperate shallow water assemblages, which is consistent with the predictions indicating that the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most sensitive regions to global change.

  4. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B B; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A

    2016-12-06

    For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

  5. Formation of Cool and Warm Jets by Magnetic Flux Emerging from the Solar Chromosphere to Transition Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Liping; Peter, Hardi; He, Jiansen; Tu, Chuanyi; Wang, Linghua; Zhang, Lei; Yan, Limei

    2018-01-01

    In the solar atmosphere, jets are ubiquitous at various spatial-temporal scales. They are important for understanding the energy and mass transports in the solar atmosphere. According to recent observational studies, the high-speed network jets are likely to be intermittent but continual sources of mass and energy for the solar wind. Here, we conduct a 2D magnetohydrodynamics simulation to investigate the mechanism of these network jets. A combination of magnetic flux emergence and horizontal advection is used to drive the magnetic reconnection in the transition region between a strong magnetic loop and a background open flux. The simulation results show that not only a fast warm jet, much similar to the network jets, is found, but also an adjacent slow cool jet, mostly like classical spicules, is launched. Differing from the fast warm jet driven by magnetic reconnection, the slow cool jet is mainly accelerated by gradients of both thermal pressure and magnetic pressure near the outer border of the mass-concentrated region compressed by the emerging loop. These results provide a different perspective on our understanding of the formation of both the slow cool jets from the solar chromosphere and the fast warm jets from the solar transition region.

  6. Regional Advection Perturbations in an Irrigated Desert (RAPID) Experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Debruin, H.A.R.; Hartogensis, O.K.; Allen, R.G.; Kramer, J.W.J.L.

    2005-01-01

    The RAPID field experiment took place in August - September 1999 at a site 25km south of Twin Falls, Idaho, USA. The experiment concerned micrometeorological observations over extensive, well-irrigated fields covered with the fast-growing crop alfalfa. During daytime, on a number of days the

  7. A Rapidly Evolving Active Region NOAA 8032 observed on April ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tribpo

    1997-04-15

    Apr 15, 1997 ... The GOES X-ray data showed a number of sub-flares and two C-class flares during the 8-9 hours of its evolution. ... (1991), where they observed X-class flares near the sites of. EFR. Wang & Shi (1993) suggested that ... region using the USΟ video magnetograph (Mathew et al. 1998). The active region. 233 ...

  8. Dust load and rainfall characteristics and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2017-08-01

    Present study investigates the similarities and differences in the pattern of dust load and rainfall and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various future warming scenarios with respect to the historical period using multiple coupled climate model runs that participated in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on statistically robust significance tests, we unravel several likely changes in the pattern of the dust load and rainfall over the South Asia under different future warming scenarios by the end of 21st century compared to the historical period. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test results reveal a significant change (at 5% significance level) in the amount of dust and rainfall under different warming scenarios over the study region. Northern part of the Indian subcontinent is likely to witness increased dust loading in future, and regions with increase in dust load are also likely to be the regions of increased rainfall over North India. Positive correlation between rainfall over the Indian region and dust over the Arabian region is also likely to strengthen in future. Considerable changes in the spatial correlation pattern between dust and rainfall are noted under different representative concentration pathways; however, no noteworthy changes are recorded in their temporal relationship. Notable intermodel differences in the patterns of dust load and rainfall relationship over South Asia are possibly caused by variations in the dust emission schemes among the CMIP5 models as well as the parameterization of aerosol indirect effect in addition to the differences in the meteorology simulated by various models under identical forcing scenarios.

  9. Formonsella pyramidosa (Haptophyta, Papposphaeraceae): A new weakly calcified coccolithophore genus from warm-water regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Helge Abildhauge; Cros, Lluïsa; Malinverno, Elisa

    2016-01-01

    A new species Formonsella pyramidosa gen. et sp. nov. is described to accommodate a widely distributed warm-water coccolithophore species that has previously been referred to as Pappomonas sp. 2. Formonsella differs from Pappomonas with respect to, in particular, the detailed structure of the rim...

  10. Enhancing water security in a rapidly developing shale gas region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shannon Holding

    2017-06-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Initiatives and tools enhancing water security in the region include strategic partnerships and stakeholder collaborations, policy and regulation development, and data collection and distribution efforts. The contributions and limitations of each of these are discussed. A vulnerability mapping framework is presented which addresses data gaps and provides a tool for decision-making surrounding risk to water quality from various hazards. An example vulnerability assessment was conducted for wastewater transport along pipeline and trucking corridors.

  11. Performance and application of a fluidized bed limestone reactor designed for control of alkalinity, hardness and pH at the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springs serving the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center, Warm Springs, Georgia, have pH, alkalinity, and hardness levels that lie under the range required for successful fish propagation while free CO2 is well above allowable targets. We evaluate a pretreatment process that exploits limestone's (...

  12. Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polade, Suraj D; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R; Dettinger, Michael D; Pierce, David W

    2017-09-07

    In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California's more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

  13. Regional climate change over Europe at specific significant warming levels in a range of EURO-CORDEX regional downscalings at 0.11° resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav

    2017-04-01

    We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by respectively 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C and 3°C compared to preindustrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5. We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling a few GCMs under different forcing scenarios. We also use an ensemble of RCM simulations with one specific RCM, the RCA4 from the Rossby Centre, which has been used for downscaling ten different GCMs. These two ensembles enable us to address questions related to sensitivity of choice of GCM and RCM on the results. Furthermore, we use two different methods of determining the time period when a certain significant warming level is reached. By contrasting these methods we investigate how sensitive the results are to the choice of method. The results indicate considerable climate change signals already at the lower (i.e. 1.5°C and 2°C) warming levels and increasingly high levels of change with increasing global warming.

  14. Potential Regional Impacts of Global Warming on Precipitation in the Western United States

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

    1997-01-01

    Snow and melting of the snowpack provide the principal supply of water to much of the Western United States. Whether global warming threatens this water supply is the focus of this research. This study builds upon a previous Global Climate Change Response Program investigation. Charts were generated of four geopotential height parameters for a domain covering the eastern North Pacific Ocean and western North America. Out of 131 total winter months (from 1946-89), 35 were selected as analo...

  15. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

  16. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambarish V Karmalkar

    Full Text Available The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation

  17. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Raymond S.

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

  18. Silica cycling and isotopic composition in northern Marguerite Bay on the rapidly-warming western Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annett, Amber L.; Henley, Sian F.; Venables, Hugh J.; Meredith, Michael P.; Clarke, Andrew; Ganeshram, Raja S.

    2017-05-01

    The Southern Ocean is a key region for silica (Si) cycling, and the isotopic signatures established here influence the rest of the world's oceans. The climate and ecosystem of the Southern Ocean are changing rapidly, with the potential to impact Si cycling and isotope dynamics. This study examines high-resolution time-series dataset of dissolved Si concentrations and isotopic signatures, particulate Si concentrations and diatom speciation at a coastal site on the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), in order to characterise changes in Si cycling with respect to changes occurring in productivity and diatom assemblages. Dissolved and particulate Si phases reflect the dominant control of biological uptake, and combined with isotopic fractionation were consistent with a season of low/intermediate productivity. Biogenic Si is tightly coupled to both chlorophyll and particulate organic carbon at the sampling site, consistent with diatom-dominated phytoplankton assemblages along the WAP. Variability in diatom speciation has a negligible impact on the isotopic signature of dissolved Si in surface waters, although this is unlikely to hold for sediments due to differential dissolution of diatom species. A continued decline in diatom productivity along the WAP would likely result in an increasing unused Si inventory, which can potentially feed back into Si-limited areas, promoting diatom growth and carbon drawdown further afield.

  19. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 ?C and 2 ?C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States

    OpenAIRE

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the C...

  20. Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Roshin, R.P.; Narvekar, J.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Vivekanandan, E.

    , P.J., Hooten, A.J., Steneck, R.S., Greenfield, P., Gomez, E., Harvell, C.D., Sale, P.F., Edwards, A.J., Caldeira, K., Knowlton, N., Eakin, C.M., Lglesias-Prieto, R., Muthiga, N., Bradbury, R.H., Dubi, A., Hatziolos, M.E., 2007. Coral..., Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A. Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., Collins, W.D., Arblaster, J.M., Hu, A., Buja, L.E., Strand, W.G., Teng, H., 2005. How much more global 19 warming and sea level rise? Science 307, 1769-1772. Meyer, J.L., Sale, M...

  1. Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

    2017-04-01

    Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the

  2. An Analysis of the Energetics of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Regions for Warm ENSO Composite Episodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zayra Christine Sátyro

    Full Text Available Abstract This study focuses on the quantification and evaluation of the effects of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation warm phases, using a composite of five intense El Niño episodes between 1979 – 2011 on the Energetic Lorenz Cycle for four distinct regions around the globe: 80° S – 5° N (region 1, 50° S – 5° N (region 2, 30° S – 5° N (region 3, and 30° S – 30° N (region 4, using Data from NCEP reanalysis-II. Briefly, the results showed that zonal terms of potential energy and kinetic energy were intensified, except for region 1, where zonal kinetic energy weakened. Through the analysis of the period in which higher energy production is observed, a strong communication between the available zonal potential and the zonal kinetic energy reservoirs can be identified. This communication weakened the modes linked to eddies of potential energy and kinetic energy, as well as in the other two baroclinic conversions terms. Furthermore, the results indicate that for all the regions, the system itself works to regain its stable condition.

  3. Identifying hotspots and management of critical ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing Yangtze River Delta Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenbo; Gibbs, David; Zhang, Lang; Ferrier, Graham; Cai, Yongli

    2017-04-15

    Rapid urbanization has altered many ecosystems, causing a decline in many ecosystem services, generating serious ecological crisis. To cope with these challenges, we presented a comprehensive framework comprising five core steps for identifying and managing hotspots of critical ecosystem services in a rapid urbanizing region. This framework was applied in the case study of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) Region. The study showed that there was large spatial heterogeneity in the hotspots of ecosystem services in the region, hotspots of supporting services and regulating services aggregately distributing in the southwest mountainous areas while hotspots of provisioning services mainly in the northeast plain, and hotspots of cultural services widespread in the waterbodies and southwest mountainous areas. The regionalization of the critical ecosystem services was made through the hotspot analysis. This study provided valuable information for environmental planning and management in a rapid urbanizing region and helped improve China's ecological redlines policy at regional scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Rapid drawdown of Antarctica's Wordie Ice Shelf glaciers in response to ENSO/Southern Annular Mode-driven warming in the Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, C. C.; Gardner, A. S.

    2017-10-01

    Here we investigate the largest acceleration in ice flow across all of Antarctica between ∼2008 InSAR and 2014 Landsat velocity mappings. This occurred in glaciers that used to feed into the Wordie Ice Shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula, which rapidly disintegrated in ∼1989. Between 2008 and 2014, these glaciers experienced at least a threefold increase in surface elevation drawdown relative to the 2002-2008 time period. After ∼20 yrs of relative stability, it is unlikely that the ice shelf collapse played a role in the large response. Instead, we find that the rapid acceleration and surface drawdown is linked to enhanced melting at the ice-ocean boundary, attributable to changes in winds driven by global atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), linking changes in grounded ice to atmospheric-driven ocean warming.

  5. Composite analysis of the temporal development of waves in the polar MLT region during stratospheric warmings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthias, Vivien; Hoffmann, Peter; Rapp, Markus; Baumgarten, Gerd

    2012-12-01

    During winter the wind field in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) at middle and polar latitudes is characterized by a strong variability due to enhanced planetary wave activity and related stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events. Such events are considered as distinct vertical coupling processes influencing the atmosphere below and above the stratosphere. In the last 12 years, an enhanced number of SSW, compared to the period from 1989 to 1998, has been observed in the northern hemisphere. Every SSW is connected with different effects in the MLT (strength and temporal development of wind reversals, temperature changes, wave activity, longitudinal dependence). To characterize the average behavior of the mesospheric response to strong SSWs, we combine high-resolution wind measurements from MF- and meteor radar at Andenes (69°N, 16°E) with global temperature observations from MLS aboard the Aura satellite for SSW events with a return to the middle atmosphere normal winter condition afterwards. Our aim is to identify characteristic wave patterns which are common to the majority of these events and to define the average characteristics of the SSW-related wave activity in the MLT. These will be compared to the relatively quiet winter 2011 with only a short minor warming without a wind reversal and to the wave activity in 2009 and 2010. The results show clear signatures of enhanced mesospheric planetary wave activity before and during the SSW and an earlier onset of the short term wind reversal in the mesosphere compared to wind and temperature changes in the stratosphere. The strong eastward winds at altitudes below 80 km after SSW are connected with an enhanced gravity wave activity caused by changed filter conditions. This provides evidence for a strong modulation of semidiurnal tidal amplitudes before and during SSW by planetary waves. However, no clear relation has been found in the temporal development of tides relative to the onset of the selected SSW

  6. Evidence for 20th century climate warming and wetland drying in the North American Prairie Pothole Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Brett A; Johnson, W Carter; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

    2013-09-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important resource that provides abundant and valuable ecosystem goods and services in the form of biodiversity, groundwater recharge, water purification, flood attenuation, and water and forage for agriculture. Numerous studies have found these wetlands, which number in the millions, to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Here, we compare wetland conditions between two 30-year periods (1946-1975; 1976-2005) using a hindcast simulation approach to determine if recent climate warming in the region has already resulted in changes in wetland condition. Simulations using the WETLANDSCAPE model show that 20th century climate change may have been sufficient to have a significant impact on wetland cover cycling. Modeled wetlands in the PPR's western Canadian prairies show the most dramatic effects: a recent trend toward shorter hydroperiods and less dynamic vegetation cycles, which already may have reduced the productivity of hundreds of wetland-dependent species.

  7. Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

    2014-01-01

    Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

  8. Acidification of musts in warm regions with tartaric acid and calcium sulfate at industrial scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gómez Juan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Acidification of musts is necessary in warm areas where high temperatures during ripening accelerate breathing com- bustion of tartaric acid and, in particular, malic acid in the berries. L(+ tartaric acid, L(- or D,L malic acid and lactic acids are the only chemical acidifiers authorized by the OIV and European Community regulations. The use of calcium sulfate (gypsum: CaSO4·2H2O is also authorized in the European Community as a complementary acidifier in generous and generous liquor 42 wines from Spain (a practice known as plastering, provided that the residual sulfate content in the wine does not exceed 2.5 g/L expressed as potassium sulfate. However, this practice is not yet approved by OIV. To predict the effect on pH of different acidi- fiers, several chemical modeling approaches have been described in the literature, in particular a simplified model where the acidity of wine is considered to be due to a monoprotic acid. The aim of this work is to verify this model at pilot and industrial scale in the acidification of musts with tartaric and calcium sulfate, added either individually and in combination, using doses up to 3 g/L and to study the modifications that these practices produce on the compositions of the resulting wines. This work sup- plies useful information to study this practice in OIV in order to consider its approval.

  9. Frost stress evolution and winter pea ideotype in the context of climate warming at a regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Castel Thierry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pea (Pisum sativum L. is an important crop in temperate regions for its high seed protein concentration that is particularly sensitive to abiotic stresses. The abrupt temperature increase known as the “1987/1988 temperature regime shift” that occurs over Europe is questioning how winter pea will perform in the changing climate. This study assessed the winter frost damage evolution along from 1961 to 2015 in Burgundy-Franche-Comté by using: (1 daily observed and gridded regional temperature data and (2 a validated crop winter frost stress model calibrated for pea. This study shows a global decrease of the frost stress nevertheless resulting from a subtle balance between the decrease in its intensity and the increase of the number of events. The frost stress evolution patterns with warming depend on both plant frost resistance level and acclimation rate and are still sensitive to winter climate fluctuations. This study provides relevant information for breeding performant winter crop ideotypes able to moderate detrimental effects of climate change and offering new cropping opportunities in temperate regions.

  10. Anthropogenic organochlorine compounds as potential tracers for regional water masses: A case study of estuarine plume, coastal eddy, wind-driven upwelling and long-range warm current.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ya, Miaolei; Wu, Yuling; Li, Yongyu; Wang, Xinhong

    2017-03-01

    Water masses are the crucial factor driving the terrigenous anthropogenic organochlorine compounds (OCs) migration from the coast to open sea. Therefore, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were investigated in the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), where different types of water masses are generated by the East Asian summer monsoon: Pearl River estuary plume (PREP), Guangdong offshore eddy (GDEC), South China Sea warm current (SCSWC) and wind-driven upwelling current (WDUC). No discrepant distributions of OC concentrations were found in these water masses (p > 0.05). However, compositions and diagnostic ratios of HCHs, DDTs, trans- or cis-chlordane and PCBs could reflect the discrepancies in the input, transport and transformation of OCs caused by the hydrological characteristics of water masses, therefore, this allowing them to serve as potential tracers of regional water masses. In detail, α/γ-HCH and β-HCH percentages could indicate the weathered residue in the GDEC, long-range transport in the SCSWC, rapid photodegradation in the surface WDUC and biodegradation in the deep WDUC, respectively. The predominance of o, p'-DDT and p, p'-DDT could indicate fresh input in the PREP, GDEC and WDUC. DDT/DDTs of ratios erosion in the PREP. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Deep scientific drilling results from Koyna and Killari earthquake regions reveal why Indian shield lithosphere is unusual, thin and warm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.P. Pandey

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The nature of crustal and lithospheric mantle evolution of the Archean shields as well as their subsequent deformation due to recent plate motions and sustained intraplate geodynamic activity, has been a subject of considerable interest. In view of this, about three decades ago, a new idea was put forward suggesting that out of all shield terrains, the Indian shield has an extremely thin lithosphere (∼100 km, compared to 250–350 km, elsewhere, apart from being warm, non-rigid, sheared and deformed. As expected, it met with scepticism by heat flow and the emerging seismic tomographic study groups, who on the contrary suggested that the Indian shield has a cool crust, besides a coherent and thick lithosphere (as much as 300–400 km like any other shield. However, recently obtained integrated geological and geophysical findings from deep scientific drillings in 1993 Killari (Mw: 6.3 and 1967 Koyna (Mw: 6.3 earthquake zones, as well as newly acquired geophysical data over other parts of Indian shield terrain, have provided a totally new insight to this debate. Beneath Killari, the basement was found consisting of high density, high velocity mid crustal amphibolite to granulite facies rocks due to exhumation of the deeper crustal layers and sustained granitic upper crustal erosion. Similar type of basement appears to be present in Koyna region too, which is characterized by considerably high upper crustal temperatures. Since, such type of crust is depleted in radiogenic elements, it resulted into lowering of heat flow at the surface, increase in heat flow contribution from the mantle, and upwarping of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. Consequently, the Indian shield lithosphere has become unusually thin and warm. This study highlights the need of an integrated geological, geochemical and geophysical approach in order to accurately determine deep crust-mantle thermal regime in continental areas.

  12. Characterization of a rapid climate shift at the MIS 8/7 transition in central Spain (Valdocarros II, Autonomous Region of Madrid) by means of the herpetological assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Panera, Joaquin; Uribelarrea, David; Rubio-Jara, Susana; Pérez-González, Alfredo

    2012-07-01

    Climate instability with high-amplitude and rapid shifts during the Middle Pleistocene is well known from pollen records and deep-ocean sediment cores. Although poorly correlatable with such long climate/environment records, the successive fossil amphibian and reptile assemblages from the Middle Pleistocene site of Valdocarros II (Autonomous Region of Madrid, central Spain) provide a unique opportunity to characterize the climatic and environmental features of such rapid (certainly less than 1000 years) shifts from cold to warm conditions in a terrestrial sequence. As the amphibians and reptiles do not differ at species level from the extant herpetofauna of the Iberian Peninsula, they can contribute to the reconstruction of the landscape and climate. In this paper, the mutual climatic range and habitat weighting methods are applied to the herpetofaunistic assemblages in order to estimate quantitative data. The difference in mean annual temperature between "cold" and "warm" periods is estimated at 3.2 °C, with a greater increase in temperature during winter (+3 °C) than during summer (+1 °C). During "cold" periods the climate was more Oceanic (although preserving some dryness during the summers), whereas during "warm" periods the climate became Mediterranean (with mild winters and a long period of dryness in the summer and early autumn). Though higher during cold periods, the continentality (or atmospheric temperature range) remained roughly similar, in accordance with the geographical location of the site in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula. A greater amount of open landscape occurred during "cold" periods, whereas during "warm" periods the wooded areas expanded from 20% to 40% of the landscape surface. Such climatic/environmental changes, together with the numeric datings of the site, suggest that this shift may correspond to the transition from MIS 8 to MIS 7, also called Termination III.

  13. A Comprehensive Modeling Study on Regional Climate Model (RCM Application — Regional Warming Projections in Monthly Resolutions under IPCC A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Mujibur Rahman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Some of the major dimensions of climate change include increase in surface temperature, longer spells of droughts in significant portions of the world, associated higher evapotranspiration rates, and so on. It is therefore essential to comprehend the future possible scenario of climate change in terms of global warming. A high resolution limited area Regional Climate Model (RCM can produce reasonably appropriate projections to be used for climate-scenario generation in country-scale. This paper features the development of future surface temperature projections for Bangladesh on monthly resolution for each year from 2011 to 2100 applying Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS, and it explains in detail the modeling processes including the model features, domain size selection, bias identification as well as construction of change field for the concerned climatic variable, in this case, surface temperature. PRECIS was run on a 50 km horizontal grid-spacing under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1B scenario and it was found to perform reasonably well in simulating future surface temperature of Bangladesh. The linear regression between observed and model simulated results of monthly average temperatures, within the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000, gives a high correlation of 0.93. The applied change field in average annual temperature shows only 0.5 °C–1 °C deviation from the observed values over the period from 2005 to 2008. Eventually, from the projected average temperature change during the years 1971–2000, it is apparent that warming in Bangladesh prevails invariably every month, which might eventually result in an average annual increase of 4 °C by the year 2100. Calculated anomalies in country-average annual temperature mostly remain on the positive side throughout the period of 2071–2100 indicating an overall up-shift. Apart from these quantitative analyses of temporal changes of temperature

  14. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  15. Responses of the photosynthetic apparatus to winter conditions in broadleaved evergreen trees growing in warm temperate regions of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Chizuru; Nakano, Takashi; Yamazaki, Jun-Ya; Maruta, Emiko

    2015-01-01

    Photosynthetic characteristics of two broadleaved evergreen trees, Quercus myrsinaefolia and Machilus thunbergii, were compared in autumn and winter. The irradiance was similar in both seasons, but the air temperature was lower in winter. Under the winter conditions, net photosynthesis under natural sunlight (Anet) in both species dropped to 4 μmol CO2 m(-2) s(-1), and the quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII) photochemistry in dark-adapted leaves (Fv/Fm) also dropped to 0.60. In both species the maximum carboxylation rates of Rubisco (V(cmax)) decreased, and the amount of Rubisco increased in winter. A decline in chlorophyll (Chl) concentration and an increase in the Chl a/b ratio in winter resulted in a reduction in the size of the light-harvesting antennae. From measurements of Chl a fluorescence parameters, both the relative fraction and the energy flux rates of thermal dissipation through other non-photochemical processes were markedly elevated in winter. The results indicate that the photosynthetic apparatus in broadleaved evergreen species in warm temperate regions responds to winter through regulatory mechanisms involving the downregulation of light-harvesting and photosynthesis coupled with increased photoprotective thermal energy dissipation to minimize photodamage in winter. These mechanisms aid a quick restart of photosynthesis without the development of new leaves in the following spring. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. Variations of Kelvin waves around the TTL region during the stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere winter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Jia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.

  17. Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Hugo, Martin; Doney, Scott C; Ducklow, Hugh W; Fraser, William; Martinson, Douglas; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Schofield, Oscar

    2009-03-13

    The climate of the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing a transition from a cold-dry polar-type climate to a warm-humid sub-Antarctic-type climate. Using three decades of satellite and field data, we document that ocean biological productivity, inferred from chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), has significantly changed along the WAP shelf. Summertime surface Chl a (summer integrated Chl a approximately 63% of annually integrated Chl a) declined by 12% along the WAP over the past 30 years, with the largest decreases equatorward of 63 degrees S and with substantial increases in Chl a occurring farther south. The latitudinal variation in Chl a trends reflects shifting patterns of ice cover, cloud formation, and windiness affecting water-column mixing. Regional changes in phytoplankton coincide with observed changes in krill (Euphausia superba) and penguin populations.

  18. Rapid ice unloading in the Fleming Glacier region, southern Antarctic Peninsula, and its effect on bedrock uplift rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Chen; King, Matt A.; Watson, Christopher S.; Barletta, Valentina R.; Bordoni, Andrea; Dell, Matthew; Whitehouse, Pippa L.

    2017-09-01

    Rapid regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula has led to the significant retreat and eventual collapse of several major ice shelves since the 1970s, triggering the subsequent acceleration and thinning of their feeding glaciers. The Wordie Ice Shelf, lying off the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, has undergone long-term disintegration since the 1960s with a substantial calving event occurring around 1989, followed by continuous steady retreat and its almost-complete disappearance. The dynamic response of the upstream glaciers to the ice shelf collapse and the response of the solid Earth to the associated mass loss are not fully understood. To quantify the mass loss from the system, we generated a digital elevation model (DEM) using airborne vertical and oblique imagery from 1966 and compared it to a DEM derived from 2008 SPOT data. This analysis reveals lowering over that time of approximately 60 m at the front of Fleming Glacier. Using IceBridge and ICESat-2/GLAS data spanning 2002-2014, we show an increased rate of mean ice-surface lowering, with rates post-2008 more than twice those of 2002-2008. We use these load change data as a basis for the simulation of viscoelastic solid Earth deformation. We subtract modeled elastic deformation rates, and a suite of modeled viscous rates, from GPS-derived three-dimensional bedrock velocities at sites to the south of Fleming Glacier to infer properties of Earth rheology. Assuming the pre-breakup bedrock uplift was positive due to post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice retreat, our viscoelastic-corrected GPS uplift rates suggest upper mantle viscosities are > 2 ×1019 Pas and likely > 1 ×1020 Pas in this region, 1-2 orders of magnitude greater than previously found for the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Horizontal velocities at the GPS site nearest the Fleming Glacier, after the application of elastic and plate tectonic corrections, point away from Marguerite Bay rather than the present glacier front. This suggests

  19. Atmospheric forcing intensifies the effects of regional ocean warming on reef-scale temperature anomalies during a coral bleaching event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhenlin; Falter, James; Lowe, Ryan; Ivey, Greg; McCulloch, Malcolm

    2013-09-01

    We investigate how local atmospheric conditions and hydrodynamic forcing contributed to local variations in water temperature within a fringing coral reef-lagoon system during the peak of a marine heat wave in 2010-2011 that caused mass coral bleaching across Western Australia. A three-dimensional circulation model Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a built-in air-sea heat flux exchange module Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Experiment (COARE) was coupled with a spectral wave model Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) to resolve the surface heat exchange and wave-driven reef circulation in Coral Bay, Ningaloo Reef. Using realistic oceanic and atmospheric forcing, the model predictions were in good agreement with measured time series of water temperature at various locations in the coral reef system during the bleaching event. Through a series of sensitivity analyses, we found that the difference in temperature between the reef and surrounding offshore waters (ΔT) was predominantly a function of both the daily mean net heat flux (Qnet>¯) and residence time, whereas diurnal variations in reef water temperature were dependent on the diurnal fluctuation in the net heat flux. We found that reef temperatures were substantially higher than offshore in the inner lagoon under normal weather conditions and over the entire reef domain under more extreme weather conditions (0.7°C-1.5°C). Although these temperature elevations were still less than that caused by the regional ocean warming (2°C-3°C), the arrival of peak seasonal temperatures in the summer of 2010-2011 (when net atmospheric heat fluxes were positive and abnormally high) caused substantially higher thermal stresses than would have otherwise occurred if offshore temperatures had reached their normal seasonal maxima in autumn (when net atmospheric heat fluxes were negative or cooling). Therefore, the degree heating weeks calculated based on offshore temperature substantially underestimated the thermal stresses

  20. Indirect Radiative Warming Effect in the Winter and Spring Arctic Associated with Aerosol Pollution from Mid-latitude Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Chuanfeng; Garrett, Timothy

    2016-04-01

    Different from global cooling effects of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions, anthropogenic aerosols from mid-latitude are found to play an increased warming effect in the Arctic in later winter and early spring. Using four-year (2000-2003) observation of aerosol, cloud and radiation at North Slope of Alaska, it is found that the aerosols can increase cloud droplet effective radius 3 um for fixed liquid water path, and increase cloud thermal emissivity about 0.05-0.08. In other words, aerosols are associated with a warming of 1-1.6 degrees (3-5 W/m2) in the Arctic during late winter and early spring solely due to their first indirect effect. Further analysis indicates that total aerosol climate effects are even more significant (8-10 W/m2), with about 50% contribution from aerosol first indirect effect and another 50% contribution from complicated feedbacks. It also shows strong seasonal distribution of the aerosol indirect radiative effects, with warming effects in seasons other than in summer. However, only the significant warming effect in winter and spring passes through the significance test. The strong warming effect due to aerosol indirect effect could be further strengthened through following feedbacks involving the surface albedo (early ice melting).

  1. Thermal comfort implications of urbanization in a warm-humid city: the Colombo Metropolitan Region (CMR), Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emmanuel, R. [Moratuwa Univ., Dept. of Architecture, Moratuwa (Sri Lanka)

    2005-12-01

    In this paper we analyze the historic trends in thermal comfort (measured in terms of Temperature-Humidity Index [THI] and Relative Strain Index [RSI]) in the Sri Lankan primate city of Colombo and correlate them with land cover changes in the region. Land cover is calculated from time-series aerial photographs in terms of 'hard' cover (buildings, paved areas and roads) and 'soft' cover (trees, green areas and waterbodies). The period selected for analysis includes pre-rapid (up to 1977) and rapid urban phases (1978 onwards) in the city. Contemporary Sri Lanka's urbanization is peculiar in that mid to late 20th century urban rates (approx. 22% of the population) had remained virtually unchanged till the economy was liberalized in 1977, but have recently intensified (currently at about 35%). This offers a unique window of opportunity to look at the thermal comfort transition consequent to urbanization. Since many tropical cities are at a similar stage of demographic transition, lessons from Colombo may generally be applicable to other tropical developing cities as well. An increasing trend in thermal discomfort-particularly at night-is seen especially at the suburban station and it correlates well with hard land cover changes. The study also brings out the relative importance of land cover in city center vs. rural areas (e.g. hard cover has more effect on thermal discomfort in city center than in rural areas). Based on these findings, we postulate an outline for a climate-sensitive urban design policy for tropical cities. (Author)

  2. Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

    2017-09-01

    The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

  3. Management of patients with acute aortic syndrome through a regional rapid transport system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzur, Miguel; Han, Sukgu M; Dunn, Joie; Elsayed, Ramsey S; Fleischman, Fernando; Casagrande, Yolee; Weaver, Fred A

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study was to describe the outcomes of patients with acute aortic syndrome (AAS) during and after transfer to a regional aortic center by a rapid transport system. Review of patients with AAS who were transferred by a rapid transport system to a regional aortic center was performed. Data regarding demographics, diagnosis, comorbidities, transportation, and hospital course were acquired. Severity of existing comorbidities was determined by the Society for Vascular Surgery Comorbidity Severity Score (SVSCSS). The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score assessed physiologic instability on admission. Risk factors associated with system-related (transfer and hospital) mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis. During a recent 18-month period (December 2013-July 2015), 183 patients were transferred by a rapid transport system; 148 (81%) patients were transported by ground and 35 (19%) by air. Median distance traveled was 24 miles (range, 3.6-316 miles); median transport time was 42 minutes (range, 10-144 minutes). Two patients died during transport, one with a type A dissection, the other of a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. There were 118 (66%) patients who received operative intervention. Median time to operation was 6 hours. Type B dissections had the longest median time to operation, 45 hours, with system-related mortality of 1.9%; type A dissections had the shortest median time, 3 hours, and a system-related mortality of 16%. Overall, system-related mortality was 15%. On univariate analysis, factors associated with system-related mortality were age ≥65 years (P = .026), coronary artery disease (P = .030), prior myocardial infarction (P = .049), prior coronary revascularization (P = .002), SVSCSS of >8 (P 10 (P = .004). Distance traveled and transport mode and duration were not associated with increased risk of system-related mortality. Only SVSCSS of >8 (odds

  4. Evaluation of urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern in a rapidly developing region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Zhi-Qiang; Dai, Fu-Qiang; Sun, Cheng

    2012-10-01

    Urban sprawl is a worldwide phenomenon happening particularly in rapidly developing regions. A study on the spatiotemporal characteristics of urban sprawl and urban pattern is useful for the sustainable management of land management and urban land planning. The present research explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban sprawl in the context of a rapid urbanization process in a booming economic region of southern China from 1979 to 2005. Three urban sprawl types are distinguished by analyzing overlaid urban area maps of two adjacent study years which originated from the interpretation of remote sensed images and vector land use maps. Landscape metrics are used to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of urban sprawl for each study period. Study results show that urban areas have expanded dramatically, and the spatiotemporal landscape pattern configured by the three sprawl types changed obviously. The different sprawl type patterns in five study periods have transformed significantly, with their proportions altered both in terms of quantity and of location. The present research proves that urban sprawl quantification and pattern analysis can provide a clear perspective of the urbanization process during a long time period. Particularly, the present study on urban sprawl and sprawl patterns can be used by land use and urban planners.

  5. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Trumbore, Susan

    1996-03-01

    THE climate system is capable of changing abruptly from one stable mode to another1-3. Rapid climate oscillations-in particular the Younger Dryas cold period during the last deglaciation-have long been recognized from records throughout the North Atlantic region4-14, and the distribution of these records at mostly high latitudes suggests that the changes were caused by rapid reorganizations of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation6,8,10,15. But events far from the North Atlantic region that are synchronous with the Younger Dryas16-19 raise the possibility that a more global forcing mechanism was responsible20. Here we present high-resolution records of laminated sediments of the last deglaciation from the Cariaco basin (tropical Atlantic Ocean) which show many abrupt sub-decade to century-scale oscillations in surface-ocean biological productivity that are synchronous with climate changes at high latitudes. We attribute these productivity variations to changes in or duration of up-welling rate (and hence nutrient supply) caused by changes in trade-wind strength, which is in turn influenced by the thermo-haline circulation through its effect on sea surface temperature6,21. Abrupt climate changes in the tropical Atlantic during the last deglaciation are thus consistent with a North Atlantic circulation forcing mechanism.

  6. Short period airglow temperature and emission rate oscillations in the high Arctic MLT region during stratospheric warming events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lederman, J. I.

    2015-12-01

    The airglow is a photochemical glow in the upper atmosphere that occurs in thin layers corresponding to different chemical processes. The O2 Atmospheric airglow layer exists at about 94 km altitude and the hydroxyl layer at about 87 km. The intensity of the light gives information about the concentration of atomic oxygen there, while the shape of the spectrum gives accurate values of the temperature. In this investigation, these are measured above Eureka in the Canadian Arctic (80N, 86W) using an instrument called SATI (Spectral Airglow Temperature Imager). The optical data are employed to characterize short period oscillations in rotational temperatures and integral emission rates of OH (6,2) Meinel and O2 (0,1) Atm. bands during a stratospheric warming event from January 2015. In this presentation, SATI observations coupled with wind radiosonde data at Eureka and the ECMWF model are used to compare the January 2015 warming with the major stratospheric warming event of January 2009, thereby providing a window into high frequency atmospheric wave dynamics at play between altitudes of 20 km - 100 km.

  7. A regional human services authority's rapid needs assessment of evacuees following natural disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, David E; Kasofsky, Jan M; Hunte, Christopher N; Diaz, James H

    2008-01-01

    The Atlantic hurricane season of 2005 was not an ordinary season, and Hurricane Katrina was not an ordinary hurricane. Hurricane Katrina damaged more than 93,000 square miles of Gulf of Mexico coastline, displaced more than 1 million residents from New Orleans, and flooded more than 80 percent of New Orleans for weeks, which killed more than 1,300 people, mostly New Orleanians. Inland regional state and local healthcare and human services agencies rushed to assist evacuees, most of whom were uninsured or displaced without employer healthcare coverage. The initial evacuation brought more than 350,000 evacuees seeking shelter to the greater Baton Rouge area, LA, 80 miles north of New Orleans, the closest high ground. This investigation describes the rapid needs assessment developed and conducted by the Capital Area Human Services District of the greater Baton Rouge area, a quasi-governmental human services authority, the regional provider of state-funded mental health, addictive disorders, and developmental disabilities services, on a sample of 6,553 Katrina evacuees in the greater Baton Rouge area. In the event of catastrophic natural and manmade disasters, state and federal decision makers should follow the National Incident Management System and support local designated lead agencies with additional resources as requested. They must rely on designated lead agencies to use their knowledge of the locale, local resources, and relationships with other providers and volunteers to respond rapidly and efficiently to evacuee needs identified through a designated, concise tool that is singularly utilized across the impacted region by all providers to determine the needed response.

  8. Declining agricultural production in rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions: policy tradeoffs and sustainability indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, André Q.; Arabi, Mazdak; Wostoupal, Benjamin C.; Goemans, Christopher G.; Zhang, Yao; Paustian, Keith

    2017-08-01

    In rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions, increasing amounts of historically irrigated cropland lies permanently fallowed due to water court policies as agricultural water rights are voluntarily being sold to growing cities. This study develops an integrative framework for assessing the effects of population growth and land use change on agricultural production and evaluating viability of alternative management strategies, including alternative agricultural transfer methods, regional water ownership restrictions, and urban conservation. A partial equilibrium model of a spatially-diverse regional water rights market is built in application of the framework to an exemplary basin. The model represents agricultural producers as profit-maximizing suppliers and municipalities as cost-minimizing consumers of water rights. Results indicate that selling an agricultural water right today is worth up to two times more than 40 years of continued production. All alternative policies that sustain agricultural cropland and crop production decrease total agricultural profitability by diminishing water rights sales revenue, but in doing so, they also decrease municipal water acquisition costs. Defining good indicators and incorporating adequate spatial and temporal detail are critical to properly analyzing policy impacts. To best improve agricultural profit from production and sale of crops, short-term solutions include alternative agricultural transfer methods while long-term solutions incorporate urban conservation.

  9. Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct). A software tool for rapidly approximating economic impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Loose, Verne William; Starks, Shirley J.; Ellebracht, Lory A.

    2011-07-01

    This paper describes the Regional Economic Accounting (REAcct) analysis tool that has been in use for the last 5 years to rapidly estimate approximate economic impacts for disruptions due to natural or manmade events. It is based on and derived from the well-known and extensively documented input-output modeling technique initially presented by Leontief and more recently further developed by numerous contributors. REAcct provides county-level economic impact estimates in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for any area in the United States. The process for using REAcct incorporates geospatial computational tools and site-specific economic data, permitting the identification of geographic impact zones that allow differential magnitude and duration estimates to be specified for regions affected by a simulated or actual event. Using these data as input to REAcct, the number of employees for 39 directly affected economic sectors (including 37 industry production sectors and 2 government sectors) are calculated and aggregated to provide direct impact estimates. Indirect estimates are then calculated using Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) multipliers. The interdependent relationships between critical infrastructures, industries, and markets are captured by the relationships embedded in the inputoutput modeling structure.

  10. Effects of rapid digitalization on total and regional myocardial performance in patients with coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferlinz, J; DelVicario, M; Aronow, W S

    1978-09-01

    In order to evaluate the effects of rapid digitalization on LV volumes, ejection fraction, and asynergy, 21 patients without heart failure were studied with a combination of hemodynamic and angiographic techniques before and after administration of intravenous ouabain (0.007 mg./Kg.). Seven patients had no CAD and served as normal (control) subjects (Group I), while 14 patients had extensive coronary disease (Group II). All pre-ouabain parameters were within the normal limits in Group I. After ouabain infusion, all indices of LV contractility: dP/dt, VCF, and ejection fraction rose significantly in the normal group, while LV filling pressure and end-diastolic volume remained unchanged. The baseline hemodynamic and volumetric values for Group II patients corresponded closely to their normal (Group I) counterparts, and exhibited similar changes after ouabain administration. Eight patients in Group II also had regional disorders of LV contractility, delineated by 23 abnormal hemiaxes of shortening. After ouabain, 15 out of 23 asynergic segments (65 per cent) improved, seven remained unchanged, and one worsened. It is therefore concluded that rapid digitalization not only enhances LV performance in normal subjects and in patients with CAD, but can also markedly reduce the extent of LV asynergy.

  11. An Efficient Rapid Warning System For Earthquakes In The European-mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; di Giovambattista, R.; Tome, M.

    Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to pro- vide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earth- quakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages (www.emsc-csem.org). A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean re- gion, potentially damaging earthquakes being defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or more. The warning system automatically issues a message to the duty seismolo- gist mobile phone and pager. The seismologist log in to the EMSC computers using a laptop PC and relocates the earthquake by processing together all information pro- vided by the networks. The new location and magnitude are then send, by fax, telex, and email, within one hour following the earthquake occurrence, to national and inter- national organisations whose activities are related to seismic risks, and to the EMSC members. The EMSC rapid warning system has been fully operational for more than 4 years. Its distributed architecture has proved to be an efficient and reliable way for the monitoring of potentially damaging earthquakes. Furthermore, if a major problem disrupts the operational system more than 30 minutes, the duty is taken, over either by the Instituto Geografico National in Spain or by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica in Italy. The EMSC operational centre, located at the

  12. Probing the cold and warm molecular gas in the Whirlpool Galaxy: Herschel SPIRE-FTS observations of the central region of M51 (NGC 5194)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirm, M. R. P.; Wilson, C. D.; Kamenetzky, J.; Parkin, T. J.; Glenn, J.; Maloney, P.; Rangwala, N.; Spinoglio, L.; Baes, M.; Boselli, A.; Cooray, A.; De Looze, I.; Fernández-Ontiveros, J. A.; Karczewski, O. Ł.; Wu, R.

    2017-10-01

    We present Herschel Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE)-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) intermediate-sampled mapping observations of the central ˜8 kpc (˜150 arcsec) of M51, with a spatial resolution of 40 arcsec. We detect four 12CO transitions (J = 4-3 to J = 7-6) and the [C i] 3P2-3P1 and 3P1-3P0 transitions. We supplement these observations with ground-based observations of 12CO J = 1-0 to J = 3-2 and perform a two-component non-local thermodynamic equilibrium analysis. We find that the molecular gas in the nucleus and centre regions has a cool component (Tkin ˜ 10-20 K) with a moderate but poorly constrained density (n(H2) ˜ 103-106 cm-3), as well as significant molecular gas in a warmer (Tkin ˜ 300-3000 K), lower density (n(H2) ˜ 101.6-102.5 cm-3) component. We compare our CO line ratios and calculated densities along with ratios of CO to total infrared luminosity to a grid of photon-dominated region (PDR) models and find that the cold molecular gas likely resides in PDRs with a field strength of G0 ˜ 102. The warm component likely requires an additional source of mechanical heating, from supernovae and stellar winds or possibly shocks produced in the strong spiral density wave. When compared to similar two-component models of other star-forming galaxies published as part of the Very Nearby Galaxies Survey (Arp 220, M82 and NGC 4038/39), M51 has the lowest density for the warm component, while having a warm gas mass fraction that is comparable to those of Arp 220 and M82, and significantly higher than that of NGC 4038/39.

  13. Climate warming and disease risks in temperate regions--Argulus coregoni and Diplostomum spathaceum as case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakalahti, T; Karvonen, A; Valtonen, E T

    2006-06-01

    The link between climate changes and disease risks from various pathogens has been increasingly recognized. The effect of climatic factors on host-parasite population dynamics is particularly evident in northern latitudes where the occurrence and transmission of parasites are strongly regulated by seasonality-driven changes in environmental temperatures. Shortened winter periods would increase growth potential of many parasite populations. The ways in which climate warming could affect life history dynamics of the directly transmitted crustacean ectoparasite Argulus coregoni and complex life cycle trematode Diplostomum spathaceum, which frequently cause problems in northern fish farming, are discussed. Increased problems for fish farming are predicted in terms of increased infection pressure from these parasites in future. This would increase problems associated with infections and increase the use of expensive management protocols with high environmental impact.

  14. The California Hotspots Project: identifying regions of rapid diversification of mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Edward Byrd; Koo, Michelle S; Conroy, Chris; Patton, James L; Moritz, Craig

    2008-01-01

    The high rate of anthropogenic impact on natural systems mandates protection of the evolutionary processes that generate and sustain biological diversity. Environmental drivers of diversification include spatial heterogeneity of abiotic and biotic agents of divergent selection, features that suppress gene flow, and climatic or geological processes that open new niche space. To explore how well such proxies perform as surrogates for conservation planning, we need first to map areas with rapid diversification -'evolutionary hotspots'. Here we combine estimates of range size and divergence time to map spatial patterns of neo-endemism for mammals of California, a global biodiversity hotspot. Neo-endemism is explored at two scales: (i) endemic species, weighted by the inverse of range size and mtDNA sequence divergence from sisters; and (ii) as a surrogate for spatial patterns of phenotypic divergence, endemic subspecies, again using inverse-weighting of range size. The species-level analysis revealed foci of narrowly endemic, young taxa in the central Sierra Nevada, northern and central coast, and Tehachapi and Peninsular Ranges. The subspecies endemism-richness analysis supported the last four areas as hotspots for diversification, but also highlighted additional coastal areas (Monterey to north of San Francisco Bay) and the Inyo Valley to the east. We suggest these hotspots reflect the major processes shaping mammal neo-endemism: steep environmental gradients, biotic admixture areas, and areas with recent geological/climate change. Anthropogenic changes to both environment and land use will have direct impacts on regions of rapid divergence. However, despite widespread changes to land cover in California, the majority of the hotspots identified here occur in areas with relatively intact ecological landscapes. The geographical scope of conserving evolutionary process is beyond the scale of any single agency or nongovernmental organization. Choosing which land to

  15. Diving of great shearwaters (Puffinus gravis in cold and warm water regions of the South Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Ronconi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Among the most widespread seabirds in the world, shearwaters of the genus Puffinus are also some of the deepest diving members of the Procellariiformes. Maximum diving depths are known for several Puffinus species, but dive depths or diving behaviour have never been recorded for great shearwaters (P. gravis, the largest member of this genus. This study reports the first high sampling rate (2 s of depth and diving behaviour for Puffinus shearwaters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Time-depth recorders (TDRs were deployed on two female great shearwaters nesting on Inaccessible Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, recording 10 consecutive days of diving activity. Remote sensing imagery and movement patterns of 8 males tracked by satellite telemetry over the same period were used to identify probable foraging areas used by TDR-equipped females. The deepest and longest dive was to 18.9 m and lasted 40 s, but most (>50% dives were <2 m deep. Diving was most frequent near dawn and dusk, with <0.5% of dives occurring at night. The two individuals foraged in contrasting oceanographic conditions, one in cold (8 to 10°C water of the Sub-Antarctic Front, likely 1000 km south of the breeding colony, and the other in warmer (10 to 16°C water of the Sub-tropical Frontal Zone, at the same latitude as the colony, possibly on the Patagonian Shelf, 4000 km away. The cold water bird spent fewer days commuting, conducted four times as many dives as the warm water bird, dived deeper on average, and had a greater proportion of bottom time during dives. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: General patterns of diving activity were consistent with those of other shearwaters foraging in cold and warm water habitats. Great shearwaters are likely adapted to forage in a wide range of oceanographic conditions, foraging mostly with shallow dives but capable of deep diving.

  16. Rapid response of hydrological loss of DOC to water table drawdown and warming in Zoige peatland: results from a mesocosm experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue-Dong Lou

    Full Text Available A large portion of the global carbon pool is stored in peatlands, which are sensitive to a changing environment conditions. The hydrological loss of dissolved organic carbon (DOC is believed to play a key role in determining the carbon balance in peatlands. Zoige peatland, the largest peat store in China, is experiencing climatic warming and drying as well as experiencing severe artificial drainage. Using a fully crossed factorial design, we experimentally manipulated temperature and controlled the water tables in large mesocosms containing intact peat monoliths. Specifically, we determined the impact of warming and water table position on the hydrological loss of DOC, the exported amounts, concentrations and qualities of DOC, and the discharge volume in Zoige peatland. Our results revealed that of the water table position had a greater impact on DOC export than the warming treatment, which showed no interactive effects with the water table treatment. Both DOC concentration and discharge volume were significantly increased when water table drawdown, while only the DOC concentration was significantly promoted by warming treatment. Annual DOC export was increased by 69% and 102% when the water table, controlled at 0 cm, was experimentally lowered by -10 cm and -20 cm. Increases in colored and aromatic constituents of DOC (measured by Abs(254 nm, SUVA(254 nm, Abs(400 nm, and SUVA(400 nm were observed under the lower water tables and at the higher peat temperature. Our results provide an indication of the potential impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic drainage on the carbon cycle and/or water storage in a peatland and simultaneously imply the likelihood of potential damage to downstream ecosystems. Furthermore, our results highlight the need for local protection and sustainable development, as well as suggest that more research is required to better understand the impacts of climatic change and artificial disturbances on peatland degradation.

  17. A case study on the formation and evolution of ice supersaturation in the vicinity of a warm conveyor belt's outflow region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Spichtinger

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A case study is presented on the formation and evolution of an ice-supersaturated region (ISSR that was detected by a radiosonde in NE Germany at 06:00 UTC 29 November 2000. The ISSR was situated in the vicinity of the outflow region of a warm conveyor belt associated with an intense event of cyclogenesis in the eastern North Atlantic. Using ECMWF analyses and trajectory calculations it is determined when the air parcels became supersaturated and later subsaturated again. In the case considered, the state of air parcel supersaturation can last for longer than 24h. The ISSR was unusually thick: while the mean vertical extension of ISSRs in NE Germany is about 500m, the one investigated here reached 3km. The ice-supersaturated region investigated was bordered both vertically and horizontally by strongly subsaturated air. Near the path of the radiosonde the ISSR was probably cloud free, as inferred from METEOSAT infrared images. However, at other locations within the ISSR it is probable that there were cirrus clouds. Relative humidity measurements obtained by the Lindenberg radiosonde are used to correct the negative bias of the ECMWF humidity and to construct two-dimensional maps of ice supersaturation over Europe during the considered period. A systematic backward trajectory analysis for the ISSRs on these maps shows that the ISSR air masses themselves experienced only a moderate upward motion during the previous days, whereas parts of the ISSRs were located just above strongly ascending air masses from the boundary layer. This indicates qualitatively that warm conveyor belts associated with mid-latitude cyclogenesis are disturbances that can induce the formation of ISSRs in the upper troposphere. The ISSR maps also lead us to a new perception of ISSRs as large dynamic regions of supersaturated air where cirrus clouds can be embedded at some locations while there is clear air at others.

  18. Payments for carbon sequestration to alleviate development pressure in a rapidly urbanizing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Dorning, Monica; Shoemaker, Douglas A.; Méley, Andréanne; Dupey, Lauren; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine individuals' willingness to enroll in voluntary payments for carbon sequestration programs through the use of a discrete choice experiment delivered to forest owners living in the rapidly urbanizing region surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We examined forest owners' willingness to enroll in payments for carbon sequestration policies under different levels of financial incentives (annual revenue), different contract lengths, and different program administrators (e.g., private companies versus a state or federal agency). We also examined the influence forest owners' sense of place had on their willingness to enroll in hypothetical programs. Our results showed a high level of ambivalence toward participating in payments for carbon sequestration programs. However, both financial incentives and contract lengths significantly influenced forest owners' intent to enroll. Neither program administration nor forest owners' sense of place influenced intent to enroll. Although our analyses indicated that payments from carbon sequestration programs are not currently competitive with the monetary returns expected from timber harvest or property sales, certain forest owners might see payments for carbon sequestration programs as a viable option for offsetting increasing tax costs as development encroaches and property values rise.

  19. Regional distribution of methionine adenosyltransferase in rat brain as measured by a rapid radiochemical method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiemke, C.; Ghraf, R.

    1981-09-01

    The distribution of methionine adenosyltransferase (MAT) in the CNS of the rat was studied by use of a rapid, sensitive and specific radiochemical method. The S-adenosyl-(methyl-/sup 14/C)L-methionine ((/sup 14/C)SAM) generated by adenosyl transfer from ATP to (methyl-/sup 14/C)L-methionine is quantitated by use of a SAM-consuming transmethylation reaction. Catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT), prepared from rat liver, transfers the methyl-/sup 14/C group of SAM to 3,4-dihydroxybenzoic acid. The /sup 14/C-labelled methylation products, vanillic acid and isovanillic acid, are separated from unreacted methionine by solvent extraction and quantitated by liquid scintillation counting. Compared to other methods of MAT determination, which include separation of generated SAM from methionine by ion-exchange chromatography, the assay described exhibited the same high degree of specificity and sensitivity but proved to be less time consuming. MAT activity was found to be uniformly distributed between various brain regions and the pituitary gland of adult male rats. In the pineal gland the enzyme activity is about tenfold higher.

  20. Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

    2017-11-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

  1. Jet Production in the Central Rapidity Region in 1.8 TeV Proton and Antiproton Collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsai, Yeong-Dong [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)

    1989-06-01

    In this thesis we study the jet production cross section in the central rapidity region in $\\bar{p}$p collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.8 TeV. The pseudo-rapidity η is defined as η ≡-ln(tan(θ/2)), where θ is the angle between the directions of the jet momentum and the proton beam. We will call the region -0.7 < η < 0.7 the 'central rapidity' region by definition. The goal of this thesis is to determine two kinds of differential cross sections for jet production: an inclusive jet Et distribution dσ/dEt, and the distribution in invariant mass dσ/dMJJ of two jet systems. These spectra serve to check the strong interaction theory, and thus to look for new phenomena, at the highest available energy. The strong interaction theory will be discussed.

  2. Passive warming reduces stress and shifts reproductive effort in the Antarctic moss, Polytrichastrum alpinum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shortlidge, Erin E; Eppley, Sarah M; Kohler, Hans; Rosenstiel, Todd N; Zúñiga, Gustavo E; Casanova-Katny, Angélica

    2017-01-01

    The Western Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and many biotic communities inhabiting this dynamic region are responding to these well-documented climatic shifts. Yet some of the most prevalent organisms of terrestrial Antarctica, the mosses, and their responses to warming have been relatively overlooked and understudied. In this research, the impacts of 6 years of passive warming were investigated using open top chambers (OTCs), on moss communities of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica. The effects of experimental passive warming on the morphology, sexual reproductive effort and stress physiology of a common dioicous Antarctic moss, Polytrichastrum alpinum ,: were tested, gaining the first species-specific mechanistic insight into moss responses to warming in the Antarctic. Additionally community analyses were conducted examining the impact of warming on overall moss percentage cover and sporophyte production in intact Antarctic moss communities. Our results show a generally greater percentage moss cover under warming conditions as well as increased gametangia production in P. alpinum Distinct morphological and physiological shifts in P. alpinum were found under passive warming compared with those without warming: warmed mosses reduced investment in cellular stress defences, but invested more towards primary productivity and gametangia development. Taken together, results from this study of mosses under passive warming imply that in ice-free moss-dominated regions, continued climate warming will probably have profound impacts on moss biology and colonization along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Such findings highlight the fundamental role that mosses will play in influencing the terrestrialization of a warming Antarctica. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Frost stress evolution and winter pea ideotype in the context of climate warming at a regional scale

    OpenAIRE

    Castel Thierry; Lecomte Christophe; Richard Yves; Lejeune-Hénaut Isabelle; Larmure Annabelle

    2017-01-01

    Pea (Pisum sativum L.) is an important crop in temperate regions for its high seed protein concentration that is particularly sensitive to abiotic stresses. The abrupt temperature increase known as the “1987/1988 temperature regime shift” that occurs over Europe is questioning how winter pea will perform in the changing climate. This study assessed the winter frost damage evolution along from 1961 to 2015 in Burgundy-Franche-Comté by using: (1) daily observed and gridded regional temperature ...

  4. Temperatures in excess of critical thresholds threaten nestling growth and survival in a rapidly-warming arid savanna: a study of common fiscals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan J Cunningham

    Full Text Available Frequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (tmax and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals (Lanius collaris in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High tmax reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period tmax did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which tmax exceeded critical thresholds (tcrits significantly reduced fledging body mass (tcrit = 33°C and tarsus length (tcrit= 37°C, as well as delaying fledging (tcrit= 35°C. Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species' responses to climate change.

  5. ShakeMap implementation for Pyrenees in France-Spain border: regional adaptation and earthquake rapid response process.

    OpenAIRE

    Bertil, Didier; Roviró, Jordi; Antonio Jara, Jose; Susagna, Teresa; Nus, Eduard; Goula, Xavier; Colas, Bastien; Dumont, Guillaume; Cabañas, Luis; Anton, Resurección; Calvet, Marie

    2012-01-01

    International audience; The USGS-ShakeMap package is used with a regional adaptation to provide automatic shake maps in rapid response for Pyrenean earthquakes. The Near Real Time system relies on servers designed for data exchange between transborder organizations involved in the Sispyr project. First maps will be provide as soon as possible after the shock, and updated with observed macroseismic intensities on the following hours. Regional Predictive Equations Tapia (2006) and Goula et al. ...

  6. Early-Holocene Climate Change in Beringia: Mediation of Global-Warming Impacts by Regional-Scale Boundary-Condition Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, M. E.; Bartlein, P. J.; Hostetler, S. W.; Shafer, S. L.; Anderson, P. M.; Brubaker, L. B.

    2006-12-01

    The early Holocene transition from glacial to interglacial conditions that occurred ca. 13ka to 10ka in Beringia (eastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was driven by the amplified seasonal cycle of northern hemisphere insolation and the accompanying changes in global ice volume, atmospheric composition, sea- surface temperature, and sea level. The climate of Beringia also was likely influenced by changes in regional- scale controls, including continental-shelf flooding, the development of thaw lakes, and the replacement of shrub tundra by deciduous forest or woodland. We are examining the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls by applying a regional climate model (RegCM2), with lateral and oceanic boundary conditions provided by global climate simulations conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean (Genesis 2.0). In addition to a present day simulation, we performed five 11ka climate simulations with RegCM2, each driven by the same AGCM 11ka global simulation: 1) a "control" simulation that represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (i.e. exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation); 2) a vegetation-change simulation, with deciduous needleleaf and boreal deciduous broadleaf vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record; 3) a sea-level rise simulation, employing present-day continental outlines; 4) a thaw-lake simulation, using the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands; and 5) a "post-11ka" simulation, incorporating all of the regional-scale boundary conditions changed in experiments 2-4. The experiments indicate that the regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The vegetation

  7. Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

    2013-12-07

    We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.

  8. Investigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization when Considering Global Warming for a Coastal Tropical Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonalez, Jorge E.; Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Smith, T.

    2010-01-01

    The overachieving goal of this project is to gain a better understanding of the climate impacts caused by the combined effects of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes and increasing global concentrations of green house gases (GHG) in tropical coastal areas, regions where global, regional and local climate phenomena converge, taking as the test case the densely populated northeast region of the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. The research uses an integrated approach of high-resolution remote sensing information linked to a high resolution Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which was employed to perform ensembles of climate simulations (combining 2-LCLU and 2-GHG concentration scenarios). Reconstructed agricultural maps are used to define past LCLU, and combined with reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SST) for the same period form the PAST climate scenario (1951-1956); while the PRESENT scenario (2000-2004) was additionally supported by high resolution remote sensing data (10-m-res). The climate reconstruction approach is validated with available observed climate data from surface weather stations for both periods of time simulated. The selection of the past and present climate scenarios considers large-scale biases (i.e. ENSO/NAO) as reflected in the region of interest. Direct and cross comparison of the results is allowing quantifying single, combined, and competitive effects. Results indicate that global GHG have dominant effects on minimum temperatures (following regional tendencies), while urban sprawl dominates maximum temperatures. To further investigate impacts of land use the Bowen Ratio and the thermal response number (TRN) are analyzed. The Bowen ratio indicates that forestation of past agricultural high areas have an overwhelmingly mitigation effect on increasing temperatures observed in different LCLU scenarios, but when abandoned agricultural lands are located in plains, the resulting shrub/grass lands produce higher surface

  9. Warm Dense Matter: An Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalantar, D H; Lee, R W; Molitoris, J D

    2004-04-21

    This document provides a summary of the ''LLNL Workshop on Extreme States of Materials: Warm Dense Matter to NIF'' which was held on 20, 21, and 22 February 2002 at the Wente Conference Center in Livermore, CA. The warm dense matter regime, the transitional phase space region between cold material and hot plasma, is presently poorly understood. The drive to understand the nature of matter in this regime is sparking scientific activity worldwide. In addition to pure scientific interest, finite temperature dense matter occurs in the regimes of interest to the SSMP (Stockpile Stewardship Materials Program). So that obtaining a better understanding of WDM is important to performing effective experiments at, e.g., NIF, a primary mission of LLNL. At this workshop we examined current experimental and theoretical work performed at, and in conjunction with, LLNL to focus future activities and define our role in this rapidly emerging research area. On the experimental front LLNL plays a leading role in three of the five relevant areas and has the opportunity to become a major player in the other two. Discussion at the workshop indicated that the path forward for the experimental efforts at LLNL were two fold: First, we are doing reasonable baseline work at SPLs, HE, and High Energy Lasers with more effort encouraged. Second, we need to plan effectively for the next evolution in large scale facilities, both laser (NIF) and Light/Beam sources (LCLS/TESLA and GSI) Theoretically, LLNL has major research advantages in areas as diverse as the thermochemical approach to warm dense matter equations of state to first principles molecular dynamics simulations. However, it was clear that there is much work to be done theoretically to understand warm dense matter. Further, there is a need for a close collaboration between the generation of verifiable experimental data that can provide benchmarks of both the experimental techniques and the theoretical capabilities

  10. Methodology for Computer-aided, Interactive Rapid Assessment of Local or Regional Stress Fields on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, S. L.; Ferrill, D. A.; Sims, D. W.; Wyrick, D. Y.; Franklin, N. M.

    2003-03-01

    We present a method for rapid assessment of stress fields on Mars: (i) mapping geologic structures, (ii) calculating stress fields, and (iii) determining resolved stresses on faults. Preliminary results are presented for northern Utopia Planitia.

  11. Widespread and rapid thermokarst development in a region of very cold continuous permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquharson, L. M.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Cable, W.; Walker, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate warming in regions of ice-rich permafrost can result in widespread thermokarst development which can have drastic impacts on ecosystem processes and human infrastructure. Numerous studies have demonstrated that local permafrost degradation is occurring in areas of relatively "warm" permafrost, yet few have acknowledged nor documented the vulnerability of cold permafrost to degradation. In this study we present the first dataset coupling observations of ice-wedge degradation and thermokarst development with on-site continuous ground temperature data. We show evidence of widespread permafrost degradation at three monitoring sites underlain by continuous permafrost, in the Canadian High Arctic (73 to 79°N). Across all sites, the lack of a substantial organic protective layer makes the permafrost vulnerable to increases in summer temperature. At the start of our ground observation period, ice wedges at each site showed little to no evidence of degradation, suggesting that this recent disturbance is unprecedented during the Holocene. During the last decade, at all sites, we observed a warming trend for climate and ground temperature, leading to an increase in active layer depth, ice-wedge melting, and subsequent ground subsidence. Between 2005 and 2013, active layer depth increased at Isachsen, Mould Bay and Green Cabin by up to 20, 30, and 40 cm respectively. This lead to trough deepening at Green Cabin and new development followed by further deepening of troughs at Mould Bay and Isachsen. To measure elevation changes caused by thermokarst development, and establish a baseline for future monitoring, we used structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry to derive a high spatial resolution digital terrain model at each site. Local distribution of thermokarst landforms were quantified using high-resolution spectral satellite imagery at an annual resolution between 2010 and 2015 and indicate that ice-wedge trough development is widespread within at least a 1 km

  12. Comparison of the response of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) in the high-latitude regions of the North Atlantic during the warm periods of the 1920s-1960s and the 1990s-2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinkwater, Ken

    2009-10-01

    Concern about future anthropogenic warming has lead to demands for information on what might happen to fish and fisheries under various climate-change scenarios. One suggestion has been to use past events as a proxy for what will happen in the future. In this paper a comparison between the responses of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) to two major warm periods in the North Atlantic during the 20th century is carried out to determine how reliable the past might be as a predictor of the future. The first warm period began during the 1920s, remained relatively warm through the 1960s, and was limited primarily to the northern regions (>60°N). The second warm period, which again covered the northern regions but also extended farther south (30°N), began in the 1990s and has continued into the present century. During the earlier warm period, the most northern of the cod stocks (West Greenland, Icelandic, and Northeast Arctic cod in the Barents Sea) increased in abundance, individual growth was high, recruitment was strong, and their distribution spread northward. Available plankton data suggest that these cod responses were driven by bottom-up processes. Fishing pressure increased during this period of high cod abundance and the northern cod stocks began to decline, as early as the 1950s in the Barents Sea but during the 1960s elsewhere. Individual growth declined as temperatures cooled and the cod distributions retracted southward. During the warming in the 1990s, the spawning stock biomass of cod in the Barents Sea again increased, recruitment rose, and the stock spread northward, but the individual growth did not improve significantly. Cod off West Greenland also have shown signs of improving recruitment and increasing biomass, albeit they are still very low in comparison to the earlier warming period. The abundance of Icelandic cod, on the other hand, has remained low through the recent warm period and spawning stock biomass and total biomass are at levels near the

  13. The structure of NGC 7538 IRS9: A massive star forming region with spatially constrained warm gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doty, Steven; Bowers, Brant

    2015-08-01

    An important question in the study of massive protostars is the physical structure of the star forming region. An extension of the Shu infall model to high masses would suggest the existence of a spherical envelope surrounding a central, massive disk. On the other hand, turbulence, outflows, instabilities, or other forces might disrupt such a disk or prevent one from forming in the first place. Observations of acetylene in ro-vibrational absorption on GEMINI provide spatially constrained observations of high-lying transitions. We model the absorption and compare the model predictions with the observations, in order to constrain the models. The implications for the physical structure are discussed, and future observations to test the results are suggested.

  14. Operational Draft Regional Guidebook for the Rapid Assessment of Wetlands in the North Slope Region of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-31

    16 1.9.1 Land cover types .......................................................................................................... 16 1.10...the flats wetland class occurring on ice wedge polygons along the ACP near Utqiagvik (formally known as Barrow), AK. The low-lying linear features...are underlain by ice wedges; and the regions in between, which are also permafrost, are composed of organic soil horizons with subsurface horizons

  15. Global and regional estimates of warm cloud droplet number concentration based on 13 years of AQUA-MODIS observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennartz, Ralf; Rausch, John

    2017-08-01

    We present and evaluate a climatology of cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) based on 13 years of Aqua-MODIS observations. The climatology provides monthly mean 1 × 1° CDNC values plus associated uncertainties over the global ice-free oceans. All values are in-cloud values, i.e. the reported CDNC value will be valid for the cloudy part of the grid box. Here, we provide an overview of how the climatology was generated and assess and quantify potential systematic error sources including effects of broken clouds, and remaining artefacts caused by the retrieval process or related to observation geometry. Retrievals and evaluations were performed at the scale of initial MODIS observations (in contrast to some earlier climatologies, which were created based on already gridded data). This allowed us to implement additional screening criteria, so that observations inconsistent with key assumptions made in the CDNC retrieval could be rejected. Application of these additional screening criteria led to significant changes in the annual cycle of CDNC in terms of both its phase and magnitude. After an optimal screening was established a final CDNC climatology was generated. Resulting CDNC uncertainties are reported as monthly-mean standard deviations of CDNC over each 1 × 1° grid box. These uncertainties are of the order of 30 % in the stratocumulus regions and 60 to 80 % elsewhere.

  16. First recorded loss of an emperor penguin colony in the recent period of Antarctic regional warming: implications for other colonies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip N Trathan

    Full Text Available In 1948, a small colony of emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri was discovered breeding on Emperor Island (67° 51' 52″ S, 68° 42' 20″ W, in the Dion Islands, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula (Stonehouse 1952. When discovered, the colony comprised approximately 150 breeding pairs; these numbers were maintained until 1970, after which time the colony showed a continuous decline. By 1999 there were fewer than 20 pairs, and in 2009 high-resolution aerial photography revealed no remaining trace of the colony. Here we relate the decline and loss of the Emperor Island colony to a well-documented rise in local mean annual air temperature and coincident decline in seasonal sea ice duration. The loss of this colony provides empirical support for recent studies (Barbraud & Weimerskirch 2001; Jenouvrier et al 2005, 2009; Ainley et al 2010; Barber-Meyer et al 2005 that have highlighted the vulnerability of emperor penguins to changes in sea ice duration and distribution. These studies suggest that continued climate change is likely to impact upon future breeding success and colony viability for this species. Furthermore, a recent circumpolar study by Fretwell & Trathan (2009 highlighted those Antarctic coastal regions where colonies appear most vulnerable to such changes. Here we examine which other colonies might be at risk, discussing various ecological factors, some previously unexplored, that may also contribute to future declines. The implications of this are important for future modelling work and for understanding which colonies actually are most vulnerable.

  17. First recorded loss of an emperor penguin colony in the recent period of Antarctic regional warming: implications for other colonies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, Philip N; Fretwell, Peter T; Stonehouse, Bernard

    2011-02-28

    In 1948, a small colony of emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri was discovered breeding on Emperor Island (67° 51' 52″ S, 68° 42' 20″ W), in the Dion Islands, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula (Stonehouse 1952). When discovered, the colony comprised approximately 150 breeding pairs; these numbers were maintained until 1970, after which time the colony showed a continuous decline. By 1999 there were fewer than 20 pairs, and in 2009 high-resolution aerial photography revealed no remaining trace of the colony. Here we relate the decline and loss of the Emperor Island colony to a well-documented rise in local mean annual air temperature and coincident decline in seasonal sea ice duration. The loss of this colony provides empirical support for recent studies (Barbraud & Weimerskirch 2001; Jenouvrier et al 2005, 2009; Ainley et al 2010; Barber-Meyer et al 2005) that have highlighted the vulnerability of emperor penguins to changes in sea ice duration and distribution. These studies suggest that continued climate change is likely to impact upon future breeding success and colony viability for this species. Furthermore, a recent circumpolar study by Fretwell & Trathan (2009) highlighted those Antarctic coastal regions where colonies appear most vulnerable to such changes. Here we examine which other colonies might be at risk, discussing various ecological factors, some previously unexplored, that may also contribute to future declines. The implications of this are important for future modelling work and for understanding which colonies actually are most vulnerable.

  18. Regional climate and vegetation response to orbital forcing within the mid-Pliocene Warm Period: A study using HadCM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prescott, C. L.; Dolan, A. M.; Haywood, A. M.; Hunter, S. J.; Tindall, J. C.

    2018-02-01

    Regional climate and environmental variability in response to orbital forcing during interglacial events within the mid-Piacenzian (Pliocene) Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264-3.025 Ma) has been rarely studied using climate and vegetation models. Here we use climate and vegetation model simulations to predict changes in regional vegetation patterns in response to orbital forcing for four different interglacial events within the mPWP (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) G17, K1, KM3 and KM5c). The efficacy of model-predicted changes in regional vegetation is assessed by reference to selected high temporal resolution palaeobotanical studies that are theoretically capable of discerning vegetation patterns for the selected interglacial stages. Annual mean surface air temperatures for the studied interglacials are between 0.4 °C to 0.7 °C higher than a comparable Pliocene experiment using modern orbital parameters. Increased spring/summer and reduced autumn/winter insolation in the Northern Hemisphere during MIS G17, K1 and KM3 enhances seasonality in surface air temperature. The two most robust and notable regional responses to this in vegetation cover occur in North America and continental Eurasia, where forests are replaced by more open-types of vegetation (grasslands and shrubland). In these regions our model results appear to be inconsistent with local palaeobotanical data. The orbitally driven changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation lead to a 30% annual reduction in available deep soil moisture (2.0 m from surface), a critical parameter for forest growth, and subsequent reduction in the geographical coverage of forest-type vegetation; a phenomenon not seen in comparable simulations of Pliocene climate and vegetation run with a modern orbital configuration. Our results demonstrate the importance of examining model performance under a range of realistic orbital forcing scenarios within any defined time interval (e.g. mPWP). Additional orbitally resolved records of

  19. Incorporating global warming risks in power sector planning: A case study of the New England region. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krause, F.; Busch, J.; Koomey, J.

    1992-11-01

    Growing international concern over the threat of global climate change has led to proposals to buy insurance against this threat by reducing emissions of carbon (short for carbon dioxide) and other greenhouse gases below current levels. Concern over these and other, non-climatic environmental effects of electricity generation has led a number of states to adopt or explore new mechanisms for incorporating environmental externalities in utility resource planning. For example, the New York and Massachusetts utility commissions have adopted monetized surcharges (or adders) to induce emission reductions of federally regulated air pollutants (notably, SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, and particulates) beyond federally mandated levels. These regulations also include preliminary estimates of the cost of reducing carbon emissions, for which no federal regulations exist at this time. Within New England, regulators and utilities have also held several workshops and meetings to discuss alternative methods of incorporating externalities as well as the feasibility of regional approaches. This study examines the potential for reduced carbon emissions in the New England power sector as well as the cost and rate impacts of two policy approaches: environmental externality surcharges and a target- based approach. We analyze the following questions: Does New England have sufficient low-carbon resources to achieve significant reductions (10% to 20% below current levels) in fossil carbon emissions in its utility sector? What reductions could be achieved at a maximum? What is the expected cost of carbon reductions as a function of the reduction goal? How would carbon reduction strategies affect electricity rates? How effective are environmental externality cost surcharges as an instrument in bringing about carbon reductions? To what extent could the minimization of total electricity costs alone result in carbon reductions relative to conventional resource plans?

  20. [Food habits and hunting patterns of Tibetan brown bear during warm seasons in Kekexili region on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ai-Chun; Jiang, Zhi-Gang; Li, Chun-Wang; Cai, Ping

    2010-12-01

    Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) is an endemic subspecies of brown bear on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. We once reported a preliminary study on the summer food habit of Tibetan brown bear from July to August, 2005 in the Kekexili (Hoh Xil).. However, the hunting modes of the Tibetan brawn bear have not been reported. From July to August, 2009, we collected additional data on food habits and hunting patterns of Tibetan brown bear in the Kekexili region. We found Tibetan brown bears are more raptatorial than vegetarian, and their basal food was plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae), relative frequency occurrence of pika in the fecal residual of brawn bear was 37.3%, dry weight of pika residuals was 44.7%, respectively, followed by wild yak (Bos grunniens) , 18.7% and 30.2%, and Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsoni) 15.0% and 16.2%. Both prey actively mode and scavenge mode were used by Tibetan brown bears in Kekexili. Tibetan brawn bears actively dug and hunted for pika and scavenged bodies of wild yak, Tibetan antelope and Tibetan gazelle. We observed that Tibetan brawn bears spent about 10% of their time to dig and to hunt for pika but we had never seen Tibetan brawn bears actively hunted large mammals such as wild yak, Tibetan antelope and Tibetan gazelle. The total amount of Tibetan antelope, Tibetan gazelle and wild yak ingested by Tibetan brown bear through scavenge was about the same amount of Plateau pika and Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) eaten by the bear.

  1. Dynamical Downscaling over the Great Lakes Basin of North America using the WRF Regional Climate Model: The impact of the Great Lakes system on regional greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gula, J.; Peltier, W. R.

    2011-12-01

    In this study we investigate the regional climate changes to be expected over the Great Lakes Basin of North America during the next century. Large freshwater systems, such as the Great Lakes, play a key role in determining the climate of their basins and adjacent regions by air mass modification through the exchange of heat and moisture with the atmosphere. Even systems as extensive as the Great Lakes are unresolved in coarse resolution global climate simulations but may be accurately captured in finer-mesh regional simulations by dynamical downscaling. Historical (1979-2001) and future (2050-2060 and 2090-2100) conditions are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forced by CCSM3 global simulations. Our analyses are based upon the IPCC SRES A2 and A1B emissions scenarios. A two-step nesting procedure is employed for the purpose of downscaling, in which the first nested WRF model is of North American continental scale at 30 km resolution, whereas the innermost domain at 10 km resolution covers the Great Lakes Basin and the Canadian Province of Ontario. The differences in extreme temperature and precipitation events delivered by the different scales of simulation are discussed. As the WRF model does not currently have an explicit lake component, lake ice and lake surface temperature need to be prescribed in the model. A first set of simulations is performed using climatological 1979-2001) data for lake ice and lake surface temperature. A second set is performed using outputs from the freshwater lake model "FLake" (Mironov, D. V., 2008, COSMO Technical Report, No. 11, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Germany) forced by atmospheric fields from the global simulations. A third set is performed using an interactive coupling of the lake model FLake with the regional model WRF. Changes in surface temperatures and ice cover, and especially ice-out dates, for the Great Lakes under future atmospheric conditions are discussed. The trends in

  2. Impacts of a warming marginal sea on torrential rainfall organized under the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manda, Atsuyoshi; Nakamura, Hisashi; Asano, Naruhiko; Iizuka, Satoshi; Miyama, Toru; Moteki, Qoosaku; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Nishii, Kazuaki; Miyasaka, Takafumi

    2014-07-01

    Monsoonal airflow from the tropics triggers torrential rainfall over coastal regions of East Asia in summer, bringing flooding situations into areas of growing population and industries. However, impacts of rapid seasonal warming of the shallow East China Sea ECS and its pronounced future warming upon extreme summertime rainfall have not been explored. Here we show through cloudresolving atmospheric model simulations that observational tendency for torrential rainfall events over western Japan to occur most frequently in July cannot be reproduced without the rapid seasonal warming of ECS. The simulations also suggest that the future ECS warming will increase precipitation substantially in such an extreme event as observed in midJuly 2012 and also the likelihood of such an event occurring in June. A need is thus urged for reducing uncertainties in future temperature projections over ECS and other marginal seas for better projections of extreme summertime rainfall in the surrounding areas.

  3. Mueller-Navelet jets at 13 TeV LHC: dependence on dynamic constraints in the central rapidity region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celiberto, F.G.; Papa, A. [Universita della Calabria, Dipartimento di Fisica, Cosenza (Italy); Gruppo collegato di Cosenza, Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Cosenza (Italy); Ivanov, D.Yu. [Sobolev Institute of Mathematics, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk (Russian Federation); Murdaca, B. [Gruppo collegato di Cosenza, Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Cosenza (Italy)

    2016-04-15

    We study the production of Mueller-Navelet jets at 13 TeV LHC, within collinear factorization and including the BFKL resummation of energy logarithms in the next-to-leading approximation. We calculate several azimuthal correlations for different values of the rapidity separation Y between the two jets and evaluate the effect of excluding those events where, for a given Y, one of the two jets is produced in the central region. (orig.)

  4. A rapid discrimination of authentic and unauthentic Radix Angelicae Sinensis growth regions by electronic nose coupled with multivariate statistical analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Wang, Weixin; Yang, Yaojun; Yan, Yuning; Wang, Wenyi; Wu, Haozhong; Ren, Zihe

    2014-10-27

    Radix Angelicae Sinensis, known as Danggui in China, is an effective and wide applied material in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and it is used in more than 80 composite formulae. Danggui from Minxian County, Gansu Province is the best in quality. To rapidly and nondestructively discriminate Danggui from the authentic region of origin from that from an unauthentic region, an electronic nose coupled with multivariate statistical analyses was developed. Two different feature extraction methods were used to ensure the authentic region and unauthentic region of Danggui origin could be discriminated. One feature extraction method is to capture the average value of the maximum response of the electronic nose sensors (feature extraction method 1). The other one is to combine the maximum response of the sensors with their inter-ratios (feature extraction method 2). Multivariate statistical analyses, including principal component analysis (PCA), soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA), and hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) were employed. Nineteen samples were analyzed by PCA, SIMCA and HCA. Then the remaining samples (GZM1, SH) were projected onto the SIMCA model to validate the models. The results indicated that, in the use of feature extraction method 2, Danggui from Yunnan Province and Danggui from Gansu Province could be successfully discriminated using the electronic nose coupled with PCA, SIMCA and HCA, which suggested that the electronic-nose system could be used as a simple and rapid technique for the discrimination of Danggui between authentic and unauthentic region of origin.

  5. Rapid fluctuations in flow and water-column properties in Asan Bay, Guam: implications for selective resilience of coral reefs in warming seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storlazzi, C.D.; Field, M.E.; Cheriton, O.M.; Presto, M.K.; Logan, J.B.

    2013-01-01

    Hydrodynamics and water-column properties were investigated off west-central Guam from July 2007 through January 2008. Rapid fluctuations, on time scales of 10s of min, in currents, temperature, salinity, and acoustic backscatter were observed to occur on sub-diurnal frequencies along more than 2 km of the fore reef but not at the reef crest. During periods characterized by higher sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), weaker wind forcing, smaller ocean surface waves, and greater thermal stratification, rapid decreases in temperature and concurrent rapid increases in salinity and acoustic backscatter coincided with onshore-directed near-bed currents and offshore-directed near-surface currents. During the study, these cool-water events, on average, lasted 2.3 h and decreased the water temperature 0.57 °C, increased the salinity 0.25 PSU, and were two orders of magnitude more prevalent during the summer season than the winter. During the summer season when the average satellite-derived SST anomaly was +0.63 °C, these cooling events, on average, lowered the temperature 1.14 °C along the fore reef but only 0.11 °C along the reef crest. The rapid shifts appear to be the result of internal tidal bores pumping cooler, more saline, higher-backscatter oceanic water from depths >50 m over cross-shore distances of 100 s of m into the warmer, less saline waters at depths of 20 m and shallower. Such internal bores appear to have the potential to buffer shallow coral reefs from predicted increases in SSTs by bringing cool, offshore water to shallow coral environments. These cooling internal bores may also provide additional benefits to offset stress such as supplying food to thermally stressed corals, reducing stress due to ultraviolet radiation and/or low salinity, and delivering coral larvae from deeper reefs not impacted by surface thermal stress. Thus, the presence of internal bores might be an important factor locally in the resilience of select coral reefs facing increased

  6. Rapid changes in the geomagnetic field: from global to regional scales

    OpenAIRE

    Mandea, M.; Olsen, N; Monika Korte; Verbanac, G.; Y. Yahiat

    2008-01-01

    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core. Its temporal change, called secular variation, is characterized by occasional rapid changes known as geomagnetic jerks, sudden change in the second time derivative of the magnetic field. For a while, detailed studies of these phenomena suffered from the sparse distribution of geomagnetic observatories over many parts of the Earth. Recent studies on magnetic data provided by magnetic satellites, w...

  7. Tropical Storm Ernesto Aerial Photography: Rapid Response Imagery of the Surrounding Regions After Landfall

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The imagery posted on this site is of the surrounding regions after Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall. The aerial photography missions were conducted by the NOAA...

  8. Differential response of corals to regional mass-warming events as evident from skeletal Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Harry; D'Olivo, Juan Pablo; Falter, James; Zinke, Jens; Lowe, Ryan; McCulloch, Malcolm

    2017-05-01

    During the summer of 2010/2011, a regional marine heat wave resulted in coral bleaching of variable severity along much of the western coastline of Australia. At Ningaloo Reef, a 300 km long fringing reef system and World Heritage site, highly contrasting coral bleaching was observed between two morphologically distinct nearshore reef communities located on either side of the Ningaloo Peninsula: Tantabiddi (˜20% bleaching) and Bundegi (˜90% bleaching). For this study, we collected coral cores (Porites sp.) from Tantabiddi and Bundegi reef sites to assess the response of the Sr/Ca temperature proxy and Mg/Ca ratios to the variable levels of thermal stress imposed at these two sites during the 2010/2011 warming event. We found that there was an anomalous increase in Sr/Ca and decrease in Mg/Ca ratios in the Bundegi record that was coincident with the timing of severe coral bleaching at the site, while no significant changes were observed in the Tantabiddi record. We show that the change in the relationship of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios with temperature at Bundegi during the 2010/2011 event reflects changes in related coral "vital" processes during periods of environmental stress. These changes were found to be consistent with a reduction in active transport of Ca2+ to the site of calcification leading to a reduction in calcification rates and reduced Rayleigh fractionation of incorporated trace elements.

  9. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-15

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.

  10. Performance and application of a fluidized bed limestone reactor designed for control of alkalinity, hardness and pH at the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watten, Barnaby J.; Mudrak, Vincent A.; Echevarria, Carlos; Sibrell, Philip; Summerfelt, Steven T.; Boyd, Claude E.

    2017-01-01

    Springs serving the Warm Springs Regional Fisheries Center, Warm Springs, Georgia, have pH, alkalinity, and hardness levels thatlie under the range required for successful fish propagation while free CO2 is well above allowable targets. We evaluate a pretreatment process that exploits limestone’s (CaCO3) ability to react away hydrogen ions (H+) and carbon dioxide (CO2) while increasing alkalinity (HCO3−) and calcium (Ca2+) concentrations, i.e. CaCO3 + H+ ↔ HCO3− + Ca2+ CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O ↔ Ca2+ + 2HCO3− Limestone sand was tested in both pilot and full scale fluidized bed reactors (CycloBio®). We first established the bed expansion characteristics of three commercial limestone products then evaluated the effect of hydraulic flux and bed height on dissolution rate of a single selected product (Type A16 × 120). Pilot scale testing at 18C showed limestone dissolution rates were relatively insensitive to flux over the range 1.51–3.03 m3/min/m2 but were sensitive (P 0.05) demonstrating that limestone was present in the reactor effluent primarily in the form of dissolved Ca(HCO3)2. Effluent alkalinity exceeded our target level of 50 mg/L under most operating conditions evaluated with typical pilot scale values falling within the range of 90–100 mg/L despite influent concentrations of about 4 mg/L. Concurrently, CO2 fell from an average of 50.6 mg/L to 8.3 mg/L (90%), providing for an increase in pH from 5.27 to a mean of 7.71. The ability of the test reactor to provide changes in water chemistry variables that exceeded required changes allowed for a dilution ratio of 0.6. Here, alkalinity still exceeded 50 mg/L, the CO2 concentration remained well below our limit of 20 mg/L (15.4 mg/L) and the pH was near neutral (7.17). Applying the dilution ratio of 0.6 in a full scale treatment plant at the site reduced by 40% the volume of spring water that is directed through each of three parallel reactors that combined react away 49,000 kg of limestone/yr.

  11. Loco-regional cancer drug therapy: present approaches and rapidly reversible hydrophobization (RRH) of therapeutic agents as the future direction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budker, Vladimir G; Monahan, Sean D; Subbotin, Vladimir M

    2014-12-01

    Insufficient drug uptake by solid tumors remains the major problem for systemic chemotherapy. Many studies have demonstrated anticancer drug effects to be dose-dependent, although dose-escalation studies have resulted in limited survival benefit with increased systemic toxicities. One solution to this has been the idea of loco-regional drug treatments, which offer dramatically higher drug concentrations in tumor tissues while minimizing systemic toxicity. Although loco-regional delivery has been most prominent in cancers of the liver, soft tissues and serosal peritoneal malignancies, survival benefits are very far from desirable. This review discusses the evolution of loco-regional treatments, the present approaches and offers rapidly reversible hydrophobization of drugs as the new future direction. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Object-based change detection in rapid urbanization regions with remotely sensed observations: a case study of Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Lihuang; Dong, Guihua; Wang, Wei-Min; Yang, Lijun; Liang, Hong

    2013-10-01

    China, the most populous country on Earth, has experienced rapid urbanization which is one of the main causes of many environmental and ecological problems. Therefore, the monitoring of rapid urbanization regions and the environment is of critical importance for their sustainable development. In this study, the object-based classification is employed to detect the change of land cover in Shenzhen, which is located in South China and has been urbanized rapidly in recent three decades. First, four Landsat TM images, which were acquired on 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively, are selected from the image database. Atmospheric corrections are conducted on these images with improved dark-object subtraction technique and surface meteorological observations. Geometric correction is processed with ground control points derived from topographic maps. Second, a region growing multi-resolution segmentation and a soft nearest neighbour classifier are used to finish object-based classification. After analyzing the fraction of difference classes over time series, we conclude that the comparison of derived land cover classes with socio-economic statistics demonstrates the strong positive correlation between built-up classes and urban population as well as gross GDP and GDPs in second and tertiary industries. Two different mechanisms of urbanization, namely new land development and redevelopment, are revealed. Consequently, we found that, the districts of Shenzhen were urbanized through different mechanisms.

  13. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  14. Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

    2015-12-01

    New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

  15. The transforming perception of a regional geohazard between coastal defence and mediated discourse on global warming: Storm surges in Hamburg, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverla, I.; Lüthje, C.

    2010-03-01

    The term regional geohazard is used for a major geophysical risk which can lead to a natural disaster. The effects will be strictly located to a specific region. It is expected but still not proven that global warming will intensify weather extremes and thus the number of regional geohazards will increase. Regional geohazards are not dangerous per se, but from the perspective of human being certain weather and nature extremes are considered dangerous as they impose damage on human beings and their belongings. Therefore the media often call them ‘natural disaster’ and as a matter of fact it seems to be a ‘must’ - according to theory and practice of news selections - that media report on any natural disaster that occur in their region. Moreover, media even report on geohazards in any other region as soon as these events seem to have any general impact. The major geophysical risk along the coast of the North Sea is storm surges. A long list of historical disasters has deeply engraved the ubiquity of this hazard into the collective memory and habitus of the local population. Not only coastal region is concerned by this danger but also the megacity of Hamburg. Hamburg is the second-largest city in Germany and the sixth-largest city in the European Union. The Hamburg Metropolitan Region has more than 4.3 million inhabitants. The estuary of the river Elbe extends from Cuxhaven (coast) to Hamburg a distance of about 130 km. Hamburg has often been subject to storm surges with significant damages. But after the storm flood in 1855 for more than 100 years until 1962 no severe storm surge happened. The Big Flood in the night from February 16 to February 17 1962 destroyed the homes of about 60.000 people. The death toll amounted to 315 in the city of Hamburg, where the storm surge had a traumatic impact and was followed by political decisions driven by the believe in technological solutions. After 1962 massive investments into the coastal defence were made and dikes

  16. Microplastic contamination in natural mussel beds from a Brazilian urbanized coastal region: Rapid evaluation through bioassessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santana, M F M; Ascer, L G; Custódio, M R; Moreira, F T; Turra, A

    2016-05-15

    Microplastic pollution (particles microplastic pollution on Santos estuary, the most urbanized area of the coast of São Paulo State, Brazil. A simple and rapid assessment showed that 75% of sampled mussels had ingested microplastics, an issue of human and environmental concern. All sampling points had contaminated mussels and this contamination had no clear pattern of distribution along the estuary. This was the first time that microplastic bioavailability was assessed in nature for the southern hemisphere and that wild P. perna was found contaminated with this pollutant. This is an important issue that should be better assessed due to an increase in seafood consumption and culture in Brazil and worldwide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Rapid Changes in Cortical and Subcortical Brain Regions after Early Bilateral Enucleation in the Mouse.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga O Kozanian

    Full Text Available Functional sensory and motor areas in the developing mammalian neocortex are formed through a complex interaction of cortically intrinsic mechanisms, such as gene expression, and cortically extrinsic mechanisms such as those mediated by thalamic input from the senses. Both intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms are believed to be involved in cortical patterning and the establishment of areal boundaries in early development; however, the nature of the interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic processes is not well understood. In a previous study, we used a perinatal bilateral enucleation mouse model to test some aspects of this interaction by reweighting sensory input to the developing cortex. Visual deprivation at birth resulted in a shift of intraneocortical connections (INCs that aligned with ectopic ephrin A5 expression in the same location ten days later at postnatal day (P 10. A prevailing question remained: Does visual deprivation first induce a change in gene expression, followed by a shift in INCs, or vice versa? In the present study, we address this question by investigating the neuroanatomy and patterns of gene expression in post-natal day (P 1 and 4 mice following bilateral enucleation at birth. Our results demonstrate a rapid reduction in dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (dLGN size and ephrin A5 gene expression 24-hours post-enucleation, with more profound effects apparent at P4. The reduced nuclear size and diminished gene expression mirrors subtle changes in ephrin A5 expression evident in P1 and P4 enucleated neocortex, 11 and 8 days prior to natural eye opening, respectively. Somatosensory and visual INCs were indistinguishable between P1 and P4 mice bilaterally enucleated at birth, indicating that perinatal bilateral enucleation initiates a rapid change in gene expression (within one day followed by an alteration of sensory INCs later on (second postnatal week. With these results, we gain a deeper understanding of how gene

  18. Papillary tumor of the pineal region: report of a rapidly progressive tumor with possible multicentric origin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, Takashi S. [University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA (United States); Kirby, Patricia A. [University of Iowa, Department of Pathology, Iowa City, IA (United States); Buatti, John M. [University of Iowa, Department of Radiation Oncology, Iowa City, IA (United States); Moritani, Toshio [University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, Department of Radiology, Iowa City, IA (United States)

    2009-02-15

    Papillary tumor of the pineal region (PTPR) is an uncommon tumor recently added to the WHO classification of CNS tumors. We report a case of PTPR in a young boy that was noteworthy for early CSF dissemination and relentless progression. In spite of intensive chemotherapy and comprehensive radiotherapy, the boy died. The neuroimaging appearance is unique with possible multicentric origin of the tumor and intense uptake of {sup 111}In-DTPA-pentetreotide. (orig.)

  19. Contrasting above- and belowground organic matter decomposition and carbon and nitrogen dynamics in response to warming in High Arctic tundra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blok, Daan; Faucherre, Samuel; Banyasz, Imre; Rinnan, Riikka; Michelsen, Anders; Elberling, Bo

    2017-12-13

    Tundra regions are projected to warm rapidly during the coming decades. The tundra biome holds the largest terrestrial carbon pool, largely contained in frozen permafrost soils. With warming, these permafrost soils may thaw and become available for microbial decomposition, potentially providing a positive feedback to global warming. Warming may directly stimulate microbial metabolism but may also indirectly stimulate organic matter turnover through increased plant productivity by soil priming from root exudates and accelerated litter turnover rates. Here, we assess the impacts of experimental warming on turnover rates of leaf litter, active layer soil and thawed permafrost sediment in two high-arctic tundra heath sites in NE-Greenland, either dominated by evergreen or deciduous shrubs. We incubated shrub leaf litter on the surface of control and warmed plots for 1 and 2 years. Active layer soil was collected from the plots to assess the effects of 8 years of field warming on soil carbon stocks. Finally, we incubated open cores filled with newly thawed permafrost soil for 2 years in the active layer of the same plots. After field incubation, we measured basal respiration rates of recovered thawed permafrost cores in the lab. Warming significantly reduced litter mass loss by 26% after 1 year incubation, but differences in litter mass loss among treatments disappeared after 2 years incubation. Warming also reduced litter nitrogen mineralization and decreased the litter carbon to nitrogen ratio. Active layer soil carbon stocks were reduced 15% by warming, while soil dissolved nitrogen was reduced by half in warmed plots. Warming had a positive legacy effect on carbon turnover rates in thawed permafrost cores, with 10% higher respiration rates measured in cores from warmed plots. These results demonstrate that warming may have contrasting effects on above- and belowground tundra carbon turnover, possibly governed by microbial resource availability. © 2017 John

  20. Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the south of Valdai Hills (European Russia) as paleo-analogs of possible regional vegetation changes under global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Novenko, E; Zuganova, I [Institute of Geography of RAS, Staromonetny Lane 29, Moscow 119017 (Russian Federation); Olchev, A [A N Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of RAS, Leninsky Prospekt 33, Moscow 119071 (Russian Federation); Desherevskaya, O, E-mail: lenanov@mail.r [Faculty of Geography, M V Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation)

    2009-10-15

    The possible response of forest ecosystems of south taiga at the south of Valdai Hills on projected future global warming was assessed using analysis of pollen, plant macrofossil and radiocarbon data from four profiles of buried organic sediments of the last interglacial and several cores from modern raised bogs and two small forest mires in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (CFSNBR; Twer region, Russia). The future pattern of climatic conditions for the period up to 2100 was derived using the data of A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios calculated by the global climatic model ECHAM5-MPIOM (Roeckner E et al 2003 The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 5. PART I: Model Description, Report 349 (Hamburg: Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology) p 127). The paleoclimatic reconstructions showed that the optimum of the Holocene (the Late Atlantic period, 4500-4800 {sup 14}C yr BP) and the optimal phases of the last interglacial (Mikulino, Eemian, 130 000-115 000 yr BP) can be considered as possible analogs for projected climatic conditions of the middle and the end of the 21st century, respectively. The climate of the CFSNBR during the Holocene climatic optimum was characterized by higher winter (about 3 deg. C higher than at present) and summer temperatures (about 1 deg. C higher than present values). Precipitation was close to present values (about 600-800 mm yr{sup -1}). Vegetation was represented by mixed coniferous and broad-leaved forest. In the warmest phases of the last interglacial the winter temperature was 5-8 deg. C higher than present values. The summer temperatures were also about 2-4 deg. C higher. Broad-leaved and hornbeam trees were the dominant tree species in vegetation cover.

  1. Arctic dimension of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    G. V. Alekseev

    2014-01-01

    A brief assessment of the global warming in the Arctic climate system with the emphasis on sea ice is presented. The Arctic region is coupled to the global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that providesa major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. On this basis using of special indices it is shown that amplification of warming in the Arctic is associated with the increasing of meridional heat transport from the low latitudes.

  2. Rapid ventilation of the Mexico City basin and regional fate of the urban plume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. de Foy

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban areas can be large emitters of air pollutants leading to negative health effects and environmental degradation. The rate of venting of these airsheds determines the pollutant loading for given emission levels, and also determines the regional impacts of the urban plume. Mexico City has approximately 20 million people living in a high altitude basin with air pollutant concentrations above the health limits most days of the year. A mesoscale meteorological model (MM5 and a particle trajectory model (FLEXPART are used to simulate air flow within the Mexico City basin and the fate of the urban plume during the MCMA-2003 field campaign. The simulated trajectories are validated against pilot balloon and radiosonde trajectories. The residence time of air within the basin and the impacted areas are identified by episode type. Three specific cases are analysed to identify the meteorological processes involved. For most days, residence times in the basin are less than 12 h with little carry-over from day to day and little recirculation of air back into the basin. Very efficient vertical mixing leads to a vertically diluted plume which, in April, is transported predominantly towards the Gulf of Mexico. Regional accumulation was found to take place for some days however, with urban emissions sometimes staying over Mexico for more than 6 days. Knowledge of the residence times, recirculation patterns and venting mechanisms will be useful in guiding policies for improving the air quality of the MCMA.

  3. Integrated ecological and regional planning in a rapid-growth setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Kevin S; Webber, Steven M; Slocombe, D Scott

    2007-09-01

    Toronto is among the fastest-growing urban regions in North America. Regional efforts to preserve rural landscapes and remnant habitat have had variable success. In the 1990s, significant conflict emerged over proposals to build large housing developments on portions of the Oak Ridges Moraine, a 160-km stretch of environmentally sensitive land along the city's northern edge. After years of planning conflict, Ontario's provincial government created the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, an Act of the Ontario Legislature. The Plan represents a dramatic change in Ontario's approach to conservation planning. We examine the development and implementation of the Conservation Plan as an example of environmental planning policy in a complex urban setting. Data from interviews with policy actors, planning agency documents, and geospatial sources are used to construct an analysis and discussion of the Plan and its implementation. From a policy research perspective, the evolution and implementation of the Plan require analysis and monitoring to better understand how such approaches can best be implemented. The Conservation Plan marks a change in policy in Ontario, and the implementation process highlights challenges in putting conservation plans into practice.

  4. The rapid bi-level exploration on the evolution of regional solar energy development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Qing; An, Haizhong; Li, Huajiao; Hao, Xiaoqing

    2017-01-01

    As one of the renewable energy, solar energy is experiencing increased but exploratory development worldwide. The positive or negative influences of regional characteristics, like economy, production capacity and allowance policies, make them have uneven solar energy development. In this paper, we aim at quickly exploring the features of provincial solar energy development, and their concerns about solar energy. We take China as a typical case, and combine text mining and two-actor networks. We find that the classification of levels based on certain nodes and the amount of degree avoids missing meaningful information that may be ignored by global level results. Moreover, eastern provinces are hot focus for the media, western countries are key to bridge the networks and special administrative region has local development features; third, most focus points are more about the application than the improvement of material. The exploration of news provides practical information to adjust researches and development strategies of solar energy. Moreover, the bi-level exploration, which can also be expanded to multi-level, is helpful for governments or researchers to grasp more targeted and precise knowledge.

  5. A rapid assessment of the quality of neonatal healthcare in Kilimanjaro region, northeast Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mbwele Bernard

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While child mortality is declining in Africa there has been no evidence of a comparable reduction in neonatal mortality. The quality of inpatient neonatal care is likely a contributing factor but data from resource limited settings are few. The objective of this study was to assess the quality of neonatal care in the district hospitals of the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. Methods Clinical records were reviewed for ill or premature neonates admitted to 13 inpatient health facilities in the Kilimanjaro region; staffing and equipment levels were also assessed. Results Among the 82 neonates reviewed, key health information was missing from a substantial proportion of records: on maternal antenatal cards, blood group was recorded for 52 (63.4% mothers, Rhesus (Rh factor for 39 (47.6%, VDRL for 59 (71.9% and HIV status for 77 (93.1%. From neonatal clinical records, heart rate was recorded for3 (3.7% neonates, respiratory rate in 14, (17.1% and temperature in 33 (40.2%. None of 13 facilities had a functioning premature unit despite calculated gestational age Conclusion Key aspects of neonatal care were found to be poorly documented or incorrectly implemented in this appraisal of neonatal care in Kilimanjaro. Efforts towards quality assurance and enhanced motivation of staff may improve outcomes for this vulnerable group.

  6. Trends of tropospheric NO2 over the Yangtze River Delta region and the possible linkage to rapid urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingliang; Zhang, Deying; Liu, Qiyang; Song, Yue; Zhou, Jiayuan; Shi, Runhe; Gao, Wei

    2017-09-01

    Over the past decade, China has experienced a rapid increase in urbanization. The urban built-up areas (population) of Shanghai increased by 16.1% (22.9%) from 2006 to 2015. This study aims to analyze the variations of tropospheric NO2 over Yangtze River Delta region and the impacts of rapid urbanization during 2006-2015. The results indicate that tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) of all cities in the study area showed an increasing trend during 2006-2011 whereas a decreasing trend during 2011-2015. Most cities showed a lower tropospheric NO2 VCD value in 2015 compared to that in 2006, except for Changzhou and Nantong. Shanghai and Ningbo are two hotspots where the tropospheric NO2 VCD decreased most significantly, at a rate of 22% and 19%, respectively. This effect could be ascribed to the implementation of harsh emission control policies therein. Similar seasonal variability was observed over all cities, with larger values observed in the summer and smaller values shown in the winter. Further investigations show that the observed increasing trend of tropospheric NO2 during 2006-2011 could be largely explained by rapid urbanization linked to car ownership, GDP, power consumption, population and total industrial output. Such effect was not prominent after 2011, mainly due to the implementation of emission control strategies.

  7. Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

    2018-01-01

    The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

  8. Assessing the Atmospheric Oxygen Balance in a Region of Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study in the Pearl River Delta, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Peng

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Oxygen is a product of photosynthesis and is essential for human survival. It also has a profound effect on ecosystems as the atmospheric oxygen balance is the basis for regional ecological sustainability. The Pearl River Delta (PRD has experienced rapid urbanization and has become one of China’s three major urban agglomerations. This study focused on the oxygen balance of the PRD in 2011, and established a model to calculate the oxygen balance that was suitable for a region of rapid urbanization by applying remote sensing gross primary production data via the C-Fix model. The influencing factors for the oxygen imbalance were analyzed and it was suggested that more attention be paid to the management of oxygen emissions than oxygen consumption. The results indicated that the oxygen balance capacity of the PRD was weak, with an oxygen consumption 9.37 times that of its oxygen emission. Zhaoqing and Huizhou are the main sources of oxygen in the PRD, with an oxygen emission density more than 4.67 times that of Dongguan or Zhuhai. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the main oxygen sinks, with a total oxygen consumption more than 5.49 times that of Zhaoqing. Moreover, the oxygen balance of the PRD is more sensitive to oxygen emissions than consumption. Therefore, it could be inferred that the land urbanization has a stronger influence on the oxygen balance than the population urbanization.

  9. Forecast simulation of rapidly-intensified typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyeong Ok; Yuk, Jin-Hee; Jung, Kyung Tae; Kuh Kang, Suk

    2017-04-01

    The real-time typhoon predictions in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) are being distributed by various agencies (for example, KMA, JMA, JTWC, NMC, CWB, HKO and PAGASA). Currently the movement of the typhoon can be predicted with an error of less than 100 km in 48 hours, however it is difficult to the predict of the intensity of the typhoon especially the Rapidly Intensified (RI) Typhoons. The mean occurrence of RI typhoon amounts to 5.4 times a year during 39 years (1977-2015), occupying 21% of typhoons in NWP. Especially the RI typhoon in the Eddy-Rich Northwest Pacific (ER-NWP) occurred 1.8 times a year, covering 29% of typhoons in ER-NWP. A RI typhoon, NEPARTAK (T201601), occurred in July 2016. It was formed in Caroline Islands and moved northwest, straightly heading for Taiwan. However, at the beginning stage many forecasting agencies predicts as move to the Yellow Sea. The accuracy of prediction data of the Typhoon NEPARTAK (T201601) from KMA, JMA and JTWC was compared with the adjusted best-track data from Digital-Typhoon (JMA-RSMC). The sequential prediction data are summarized with 6-hour interval from 3th to 10th July 2016.The JMA prediction of the typhoon track and the JTWC predictions of the maximum wind speed were found to be best. The numerical simulations using WRF model forced with NCEP GFS prediction data and microwave SST is compared. The simulations using one domain (D1), two domains (D2) using a moving nest scheme, and with or without the spectral nudging (-SN) are compared. Comparison of the errors on the track shows the differences of 100 km in 48-hour prediction and200 km in 72-hour prediction on average. The best results on the track prediction are shown in the D2 case of WRF model. However, underestimation of the maximum wind speed of WRF prediction still exists, obviously requiring better understanding of RI-related processes to improve the model prediction.

  10. Improving conservation of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): conceptualization and contributions toward a regional warm-water network management strategy for sustainable winter habitat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

    2013-01-01

    We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

  11. Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

    2013-01-01

    We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

  12. Rapid formation of a severe regional winter haze episode over a mega-city cluster on the North China Plain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jie; Du, Huiyun; Wang, Zifa; Sun, Yele; Yang, Wenyi; Li, Jianjun; Tang, Xiao; Fu, Pingqing

    2017-04-01

    The Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS) was used to investigate an extreme regional haze episode persisting over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megacity cluster from November 26 to December 1, 2015. During this extreme haze event, the regional daily mean PM2.5 exceeded 500 μg/m3. We found that local emissions were the main source of haze over Beijing and Hebei in the early formational stage of this episode. The accumulation of regionally transported, highly aged secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) along the foot of the mountains was responsible (60%) for the rapid increase of surface PM2.5 in Beijing between November 30 and December 1, although PM2.5 concentrations in the source regions of Hebei province were lower. The height of regional transport ranged from 200 to 700 m above ground level, with a slow increase with increasing distance of the source regions from Beijing. This indicates that more attention should be given to point sources at heights of 200-500 m in order to reduce the contribution of transport. The contribution of local emissions to haze in Beijing was mostly concentrated below 300 m above ground level, and was more significant for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) than SIA. Tagging of pollutants by emission time showed that PM2.5 had been aged before it arrived at Beijing, and PM2.5 formed one or more days prior to arrival was twice that formed on the arrival day. This suggests that control measures would be more effective if they were implemented two days prior to haze episodes. In contrast to Beijing, haze in Tianjin was governed by transport from outside sources, whereas in cities located in Hebei province this episode resulted from local emissions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Assessment on the Impact of Arable Land Protection Policies in a Rapidly Developing Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiadan Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the effect of arable land protection policies in China, a practical framework that integrates geographic information systems (GIS, soil quality assessment and landscape metrics analysis was employed to track and analyze arable land transformations and landscape changes in response to rampant urbanization within the Ningbo region (China from 2005 to 2013. The results showed that arable land loss and degradation have continued, despite the development of a comprehensive legal framework for arable land protection. The implementation of arable land protection policies is judged to be effective, but not entirely successful, because it guarantees the overall amount of arable land but does not consider soil quality and spatial distribution. In addition, there are distinct variations in arable land change dynamics between two temporal intervals. From 2005–2009, the transformation of arable land was diversified, with intensified conversion among arable land, built-up land, water and orchards. Moreover, many new arable land parcels were adjacent to built-up land, and are in danger of being occupied again through urban sprawl. By 2009–2013, most of the arable land was occupied by urban expansion, whereas a majority of newly increased arable land was reclaimed from coastal tideland. Although the newly increased arable land was contiguous and far from the urban area, it is of poor quality and has limited use. The permanent loss of high-quality arable land due to intensified urban sprawl may threaten sustainable development and food security on a larger scale.

  14. Multi-scale responses to warming in an experimental insect metacommunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grainger, Tess Nahanni; Gilbert, Benjamin

    2017-12-01

    In metacommunities, diversity is the product of species interactions at the local scale and dispersal between habitat patches at the regional scale. Although warming can alter both species interactions and dispersal, the combined effects of warming on these two processes remains uncertain. To determine the independent and interactive effects of warming-induced changes to local species interactions and dispersal, we constructed experimental metacommunities consisting of enclosed milkweed patches seeded with five herbivorous milkweed specialist insect species. We treated metacommunities with two levels of warming (unwarmed and warmed) and three levels of connectivity (isolated, low connectivity, high connectivity). Based on metabolic theory, we predicted that if plant resources were limited, warming would accelerate resource drawdown, causing local insect declines and increasing both insect dispersal and the importance of connectivity to neighboring patches for insect persistence. Conversely, given abundant resources, warming could have positive local effects on insects, and the risk of traversing a corridor to reach a neighboring patch could outweigh the benefits of additional resources. We found support for the latter scenario. Neither resource drawdown nor the weak insect-insect associations in our system were affected by warming, and most insect species did better locally in warmed conditions and had dispersal responses that were unchanged or indirectly affected by warming. Dispersal across the matrix posed a species-specific risk that led to declines in two species in connected metacommunities. Combined, this scaled up to cause an interactive effect of warming and connectivity on diversity, with unwarmed metacommunities with low connectivity incurring the most rapid declines in diversity. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of integrating the complex outcomes of species interactions and spatial structure in understanding community response to climate

  15. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  16. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  17. Alterations in regional cerebral glucose metabolism across waking and non-rapid eye movement sleep in depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofzinger, Eric A; Buysse, Daniel J; Germain, Anne; Price, Julie C; Meltzer, Carolyn C; Miewald, Jean M; Kupfer, David J

    2005-04-01

    Depression is associated with sleep disturbances, including alterations in non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep. Non-rapid eye movement sleep is associated with decreases in frontal, parietal, and temporal cortex metabolic activity compared with wakefulness. To show that depressed patients would have less of a decrease than controls in frontal metabolism between waking and NREM sleep and to show that during NREM sleep, they would have increased activity in structures that promote arousal. Subjects completed electroencephalographic sleep and regional cerebral glucose metabolism assessments during both waking and NREM sleep using [(18)F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography. General clinical research center. The study included 29 unmedicated patients who met the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV criteria for current major depression and who had a score of 15 or greater on a 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression and 28 medically healthy subjects of comparable age and sex who were free of mental disorders. Electroencephalographic sleep and regional cerebral metabolism during waking and NREM sleep. Depressed patients showed smaller decreases than healthy subjects in relative metabolism in broad regions of the frontal, parietal, and temporal cortex from waking to NREM sleep. Depressed patients showed larger decreases than healthy subjects in relative metabolism in the left amygdala, anterior cingulate cortex, cerebellum, parahippocampal cortex, fusiform gyrus, and occipital cortex. However, in post hoc analyses, depressed patients showed hypermetabolism in these areas during both waking and NREM sleep. The smaller decrease in frontal metabolism from waking to NREM sleep in depressed patients is further evidence for a dynamic sleep-wake alteration in prefrontal cortex function in depression. Hypermetabolism in a ventral emotional neural system during waking in depressed patients persists into NREM sleep.

  18. Effect of moisture availability on wood density and vessel characteristics of Eucalyptus grandis in the warm temperate region of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, Sasha

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available intolerant of adverse conditions, and performs poorly when planted on shallow soils and/or on dry sites. A study was conducted to assess the effect of moisture availability on the wood density and vessel characteristics of E. grandis grown in the warm...

  19. Prevention of an additional surgery for regional lymphadenectomy in melanoma: rapid intraoperative immunostaining of sentinel lymph node imprint smears

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    Campbell Bruce H

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sentinel lymph node (SLN biopsy is performed at many institutions and is considered a standard of care in the management of cutaneous melanoma. The discriminatory immunostaining pattern with the 'MCW Melanoma Cocktail' (a mixture of MART-1 {1:500}, Melan- A {1:100}, and Tyrosinase {1:50} monoclonal antibodies allows intraoperative immunocytochemical evaluation of imprint smears of SLNs for melanoma metastases. Cohesive cells of benign capsular melanocytic nevi that were also immunoreactive with the cocktail do not exfoliate easily for imprint smear detection. Methods We prospectively evaluated 73 lymph nodes (70 SLN & 3 non-SLN from 41 cases (mean 1.8, 1 to 4 SLNs/case of cutaneous melanoma using a rapid 17-minute immunostaining previously published protocol. The results were compared with permanent sections also immunostained with 'the cocktail'. Results 19.5%, 8/41 cases (12%, 9/73 lymph nodes were positive for melanoma metastases on permanent sections immunostained with the 'MCW melanoma cocktail'. Melanoma metastases in 87.5% (7/8 of these cases were also detected in rapidly immunostained imprint smears, with 100% specificity and 90% sensitivity. None of the 7 SLNs from 7 cases with capsular nevi showed false positive results. Conclusion Melanoma metastases could be detected in imprint smears immunostained with 'MCW Melanoma Cocktail' utilizing a rapid intraoperative protocol. The cohesive cells of the capsular nevi do not readily exfoliate and do not lead to false positive interpretation. In a majority of positive cases, a regional lymphadenectomy could have been completed during the same surgery for SLN biopsy and wide excision of primary melanoma site, potentially eliminating the need for an additional surgery.

  20. The impact of urban land expansion on soil quality in rapidly urbanizing regions in China: Kunshan as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Pu, Lijie; Peng, Buzhuo; Gao, Zhonggui

    2011-04-01

    At a stage of rapid economic development and urbanization in China, most cities are faced with serious problems caused by environment deterioration such as pollution, space press, afforestation degradation, and disordering. Kunshan City, one of the most economically vigorous regions in China, has suffered a more prominent conflict between urbanization and environmental safety. In this paper, urban land expansion in Kunshan City in the Yangtze River Delta was measured with reference to the Landsat data recorded in 1982, 1991, 1995, and 2003 and change in land-use pattern in 1981, 1991, 1995, and 2004 as well as that in nutrients in soils of different purposes between the periods were analyzed to study the effect of urban land-use expansion on soil characteristics. To get a better understanding of soil nutrients, heavy metal content, and pollution, on-the-spot investigation, sampling and laboratory analysis were all conducted, and the geo-accumulation factors and revised Nemerow comprehensive index method were adopted for evaluation of the findings. The results show that the content of organic matter, total nitrogen, rapidly available nitrogen, and available phosphorus in the soil (except available potassium) all increased, and the average content of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Hg, Se, and Zn prove to be 8.61, 0.12, 83.53, 32.49, 29.93, 30.45, 0.27, 0.24, and 93.3 mg kg(-1), respectively, showing degradation in soil quality.

  1. Rapid turnover of DnaA at replication origin regions contributes to initiation control of DNA replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Katrin; Hervás, Ana B; Rösch, Thomas C; Eisemann, Marc; Schmitt, Bernhard A; Dahlke, Stephan; Kleine-Borgmann, Luise; Murray, Seán M; Graumann, Peter L

    2017-02-01

    DnaA is a conserved key regulator of replication initiation in bacteria, and is homologous to ORC proteins in archaea and in eukaryotic cells. The ATPase binds to several high affinity binding sites at the origin region and upon an unknown molecular trigger, spreads to several adjacent sites, inducing the formation of a helical super structure leading to initiation of replication. Using FRAP analysis of a functional YFP-DnaA allele in Bacillus subtilis, we show that DnaA is bound to oriC with a half-time of 2.5 seconds. DnaA shows similarly high turnover at the replication machinery, where DnaA is bound to DNA polymerase via YabA. The absence of YabA increases the half time binding of DnaA at oriC, showing that YabA plays a dual role in the regulation of DnaA, as a tether at the replication forks, and as a chaser at origin regions. Likewise, a deletion of soj (encoding a ParA protein) leads to an increase in residence time and to overinitiation, while a mutation in DnaA that leads to lowered initiation frequency, due to a reduced ATPase activity, shows a decreased residence time on binding sites. Finally, our single molecule tracking experiments show that DnaA rapidly moves between chromosomal binding sites, and does not arrest for more than few hundreds of milliseconds. In Escherichia coli, DnaA also shows low residence times in the range of 200 ms and oscillates between spatially opposite chromosome regions in a time frame of one to two seconds, independently of ongoing transcription. Thus, DnaA shows extremely rapid binding turnover on the chromosome including oriC regions in two bacterial species, which is influenced by Soj and YabA proteins in B. subtilis, and is crucial for balanced initiation control, likely preventing fatal premature multimerization and strand opening of DnaA at oriC.

  2. Investigating warming trends and spatial patterns of Land Surface Temperatures over the Greater Los Angeles Area using new MODIS and VIIRS LST products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malakar, N. K.; Hulley, G. C.

    2016-12-01

    The Los Angeles (LA) metropolitan area is one of the fastest growing urban centers in the United States, and home to roughly 18 million people. Understanding the trends and impacts of warming temperatures in urban environments is an increasingly important issue in our changing climate. We used thermal infrared data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors to retrieve Land Surface Temperature using a new Temperature Emissivity Separation algorithm adapted for these sensors. We analyzed day and night LST retrievals to study the warming trends of LST for the greater LA region from 2002-2015. The average warming trend over LA for summer days and nights over this period for MODIS Aqua data was 1.1 °C per decade, while a more rapid warming is observed for the years 2012-2016 for both MODIS and VIIRS observations. We have also found that inland LA regions are warming more rapidly than the other regions. We further investigate the underlying cause of the warming by looking into the physical factors such as changes in net radiation, cloud cover, and evapotranspiration. The results will help to understand how indicators of climate change are evolving in the beginning of the 21st century, and how they compare with global climate model projections. Identification of potential impacts, and underlying causes of warming trends in various LA regions will help decision makers to develop policies to help mitigate the effects of rising temperatures.

  3. Study on heat collector of the solar system utilizing outdoor air. Experimental results in cases of cold and warm regions; Gaiki donyushiki solar system no shunetsubu ni kansuru kenkyu. Kanreichi to ondanchi ni okeru shunetsu jikken to kosatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komano, S.; Ebara, Y. [OM Solar Association, Shizuoka (Japan); Wada, H. [Wada Building Constructors Co. Ltd., Hokkaido (Japan)

    1996-10-27

    An experiment on heat collection was made in the heat collector of a solar system utilizing outdoor air in cold and warm regions. In this system, outdoor air is heated by the air circulation layer on the roof exposed to solar radiation. The heated air is supplied to the object space for heating and ventilation. In the experiment in a cold region, the heat collection characteristics can be adjusted by putting a baffle plate in the air duct according to the experiment of a glass heat collector. The heat collecting air layer on only the iron roof may leak or freeze in the region subject to coldness or heavy snowfall. Therefore, preheat forms the space of a garret, and the preheat temperature comparatively becomes low. The data in which the heat collection characteristics can be adjusted using only a glass heat collector is required corresponding to the regional situation. In the experiment in a warm region, an experiment was made inclusive of the preheat for which outdoor air is absorbed at the eaves. As a result, the heat collection characteristics of preheat were improved. Moreover, a heat collection temperature of about 60{degree}C was obtained on the heat collection surface including the preheat. 1 ref., 12 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. OH reactivity in urban and suburban regions in Seoul, South Korea - an East Asian megacity in a rapid transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Saewung; Sanchez, Dianne; Wang, Mark; Seco, Roger; Jeong, Daun; Hughes, Stacey; Barletta, Barbara; Blake, Donald R; Jung, Jinsang; Kim, Deugsoo; Lee, Gangwoong; Lee, Meehye; Ahn, Joonyoung; Lee, Sang-Deok; Cho, Gangnam; Sung, Min-Young; Lee, Yong-Hwan; Kim, Dan Bi; Kim, Younha; Woo, Jung-Hun; Jo, Duseong; Park, Rokjin; Park, Jeong-Hoo; Hong, You-Deog; Hong, Ji-Hyung

    2016-07-18

    South Korea has recently achieved developed country status with the second largest megacity in the world, the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). This study provides insights into future changes in air quality for rapidly emerging megacities in the East Asian region. We present total OH reactivity observations in the SMA conducted at an urban Seoul site (May-June, 2015) and a suburban forest site (Sep, 2015). The total OH reactivity in an urban site during the daytime was observed at similar levels (∼15 s(-1)) to those previously reported from other East Asian megacity studies. Trace gas observations indicate that OH reactivity is largely accounted for by NOX (∼50%) followed by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (∼35%). Isoprene accounts for a substantial fraction of OH reactivity among the comprehensive VOC observational dataset (25-47%). In general, observed total OH reactivity can be accounted for by the observed trace gas dataset. However, observed total OH reactivity in the suburban forest area cannot be largely accounted for (∼70%) by the trace gas measurements. The importance of biogenic VOC (BVOCs) emissions and oxidations used to evaluate the impacts of East Asian megacity outflows for the regional air quality and climate contexts are highlighted in this study.

  5. Two-signed feedback of cross-isthmus moisture transport on glacial overturning controlled by the Atlantic warm pool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, H.J. de; Roche, D.M.; Renssen, H.; Dekker, S.C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the control of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on atmospheric moisture transport across the Central American isthmus as a potential feedback on rapid glacial climate fluctuations. Defined as a region of the Atlantic with surface temperatures above 28.5 °C, the modern AWP expands from

  6. Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2014-04-01

    Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact

  8. Structure and Dissipation Characteristics of an Electron Diffusion Region Observed by MMS During a Rapid, Normal-Incidence Magnetopause Crossing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torbert, R. B.; Burch, J. L.; Argall, M. R.; Alm, L.; Farrugia, C. J.; Forbes, T. G.; Giles, B. L.; Rager, A.; Dorelli, J.; Strangeway, R. J.; Ergun, R. E.; Wilder, F. D.; Ahmadi, N.; Lindqvist, P.-A.; Khotyaintsev, Y.

    2017-12-01

    On 22 October 2016, the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft encountered the electron diffusion region (EDR) when the magnetosheath field was southward, and there were signatures of fast reconnection, including flow jets, Hall fields, and large power dissipation. One rapid, normal-incidence crossing, during which the EDR structure was almost stationary in the boundary frame, provided an opportunity to observe the spatial structure for the zero guide field case of magnetic reconnection. The reconnection electric field was determined unambiguously to be 2-3 mV/m. There were clear signals of fluctuating parallel electric fields, up to 6 mV/m on the magnetosphere side of the diffusion region, associated with a Hall-like parallel current feature on the electron scale. The width of the main EDR structure was determined to be 2 km (1.8 de). Although the MMS spacecraft were in their closest tetrahedral separation of 8 km, the divergences and curls for these thin current structures could therefore not be computed in the usual manner. A method is developed to determine these quantities on a much smaller scale and applied to compute the normal component of terms in the generalized Ohm's law for the positions of each individual spacecraft (not a barocentric average). Although the gradient pressure term has a qualitative dependence that follows the observed variation of E + Ve × B, the quantitative magnitude of these terms differs by more than a factor of 2, which is shown to be greater than the respective errors. Thus, future research is required to find the manner in which Ohm's law is balanced.

  9. Composition of Solid Waste in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, a Mountain Region Undergoing Rapid Urbanization in Northern Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah I. Al-Mahrouqi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a lack of data on the generation and composition of waste in rural areas worldwide. The present study analyzed the composition of solid waste in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, a rural mountain region in the Sultanate of Oman, which is presently experiencing a rapid rate of urbanization due to tourism development. The solid wastes here are generated by the municipality collecting waste from residential, commercial, institutional and recreational areas, the military from a training camp and a few non-governmental private companies from their camps and hotels. The whole load from each of the three sources was manually segregated each month from June 2013 – May 2014. The results indicated that plastic is the dominant category in the wastes collected by the municipality and accounts for 26.7%, followed by paper (17.9% and then food (14.4%. Food is the dominant category in the wastes collected by the military and private companies and accounts for 36.5% and 45.5% respectively. Management issues associated with solid waste are briefly considered. The study concluded that the municipality should implement an improved system for the collection of plastic waste and initiate a system for recycling it; the military and private companies should reduce the quantities of food waste by improved planning and management of the catering services.

  10. Measurements of longitudinal and transverse momentum distributions for neutral pions in the forward-rapidity region with the LHCf detector

    CERN Document Server

    Adriani, O.; Bonechi, L.; Bongi, M.; D'Alessandro, R.; Del Prete, M.; Haguenauer, M.; Itow, Y.; Kasahara, K.; Kawade, K.; Makino, Y.; Masuda, K.; Matsubayashi, E.; Menjo, H.; Mitsuka, G.; Muraki, Y.; Papini, P.; Perrot, A.L.; Ricciarini, S.; Sako, T.; Sakurai, N.; Suzuki, T.; Tamura, T.; Tiberio, A.; Torii, S.; Tricomi, A.; Turner, W.C.; Zhou, Q.D.

    2016-01-01

    The transverse and longitudinal momentum distributions for inclusive neutral pions in the very forward rapidity region have been measured with the Large Hadron Collider forward detector in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=$ 2.76 and 7 TeV and in proton-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energies of $\\sqrt{s_\\text{NN}}=$ 5.02 TeV at the LHC. Such momentum distributions in proton-proton collisions are compatible with the hypotheses of limiting fragmentation and Feynman scaling. A sizable suppression of the production of neutral pions, after taking into account ultraperipheral collisions, is found in the transverse and longitudinal momentum distributions obtained in proton-lead collisions. This leads to a strong nuclear modification factor value of about 0.1-0.3. The experimental measurements presented in this paper provide a benchmark for the hadronic interaction Monte Carlo simulations codes that are used for the simulation of air showers.

  11. Geologic Map of the Warm Spring Canyon Area, Death Valley National Park, Inyo County, California, With a Discussion of the Regional Significance of the Stratigraphy and Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrucke, Chester T.; Stone, Paul; Stevens, Calvin H.

    2007-01-01

    Warm Spring Canyon is located in the southeastern part of the Panamint Range in east-central California, 54 km south of Death Valley National Park headquarters at Furnace Creek Ranch. For the relatively small size of the area mapped (57 km2), an unusual variety of Proterozoic and Phanerozoic rocks is present. The outcrop distribution of these rocks largely resulted from movement on the east-west-striking, south-directed Butte Valley Thrust Fault of Jurassic age. The upper plate of the thrust fault comprises a basement of Paleoproterozoic schist and gneiss overlain by a thick sequence of Mesoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic rocks, the latter of which includes diamictite generally considered to be of glacial origin. The lower plate is composed of Devonian to Permian marine formations overlain by Jurassic volcanic and sedimentary rocks. Late Jurassic or Early Cretaceous plutons intrude rocks of the area, and one pluton intrudes the Butte Valley Thrust Fault. Low-angle detachment faults of presumed Tertiary age underlie large masses of Neoproterozoic dolomite in parts of the area. Movement on these faults predated emplacement of middle Miocene volcanic rocks in deep, east-striking paleovalleys. Excellent exposures of all the rocks and structural features in the area result from sparse vegetation in the dry desert climate and from deep erosion along Warm Spring Canyon and its tributaries.

  12. Investigation of the differences between deepening and intensification for 500-hpa cyclones in central and East Mediterranean region during warm season of the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Spanos

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The maximum deepening rate per cyclone track is determined by the maximum height drop at the center of the cyclone (500-hPa low on the basis of all the 6-h successive steps in its life cycle. The geopotential height gradient is calculated over the entire low area and the calculation continued with the variation of the gradient in the successive steps. The maximum intensification rate per cyclone is then determined as the maximum increase of the gradient in the life cycle. Maximum deepening rate for the 500-hPa cyclones in the area does not exceed, on average, 12 gpm/6 h. Maximum intensification which is 1.4 gpm/100 Km*6 h on average, occurs in the early stages of the cyclone's life cycle. This on the average happens approximately 9 h after the first time the low is detected. At the gulf of Genoa and the Adriatic Sea, cyclones usually show the maximum intensification after the maximum deepening. At Turkey's cyclogenesis area, however, this order is reversed. The spatial distributions of maximum intensification in the three sub-periods, indicate that it mainly occurs over Seas during late warm periods and over land during early and middle warm periods. Such a behavior underlines the role of low-level instability in cyclone development.

  13. Enhanced Decadal Warming of the Southeast Indian Ocean During the Recent Global Surface Warming Slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanlong; Han, Weiqing; Zhang, Lei

    2017-10-01

    The rapid Indian Ocean warming during the early-21th century was a major heat sink for the recent global surface warming slowdown. Analysis of observational data and ocean model experiments reveals that during 2003-2012 more than half of the increased upper Indian Ocean heat content was concentrated in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), causing a warming "hot spot" of 0.8-1.2 K decade-1 near the west coast of Australia. This SEIO warming was primarily induced by the enhancements of the Pacific trade winds and Indonesian throughflow associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation's (IPO) transition to its negative phase, and to a lesser degree by local atmospheric forcing within the Indian Ocean. Large-ensemble climate model simulations suggest that this warming event was likely also exacerbated by anthropogenic forcing and thus unprecedentedly strong as compared to previous IPO transition periods. Climate model projections suggest an increasing possibility of such strong decadal warming in future.

  14. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  15. Malaria diagnosis and treatment practices following introduction of rapid diagnostic tests in Kibaha District, Coast Region, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubi, Marycelina; Kakoko, Deodatus; Ngasala, Billy; Premji, Zul; Peterson, Stefan; Björkman, Anders; Mårtensson, Andreas

    2013-08-26

    The success of the universal parasite-based malaria testing policy for fever patients attending primary health care (PHC) facilities in Tanzania will depend highly on health workers' perceptions and practices. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess the present use of malaria diagnostics (rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and microscopy), prescription behaviour and factors affecting adherence to test results at PHC facilities in Kibaha District, Coast Region, Tanzania. Exit interviews were conducted with fever patients at PHC facilities and information on diagnostic test performed and treatment prescribed were recorded. Interviews with prescribers to assess their understanding, perceptions and practices related to RDTs were conducted, and health facility inventory performed to assess availability of staff, diagnostics and anti-malarial drugs. The survey was undertaken at ten governmental PHC facilities, eight of which had functional diagnostics. Twenty health workers were interviewed and 195 exit interviews were conducted with patients at the PHC facilities. Of the 168 patients seen at facilities with available diagnostics, 105 (63%) were tested for malaria, 31 (30%) of whom tested positive. Anti-malarial drugs were prescribed to all patients with positive test results, 14% of patients with negative results and 28% of patients not tested for malaria. Antibiotics were more likely to be prescribed to patients with negative test results compared to patients with positive results (81 vs 39%, p malaria (84 vs 69%, p = 0.01). Stock-outs of RDTs and staff shortage accounted for the low testing rate, and health worker perceptions were the main reason for non-adherence to test results. Anti-malarial prescription to patients with negative test results and those not tested is still practiced in Tanzania despite the universal malaria testing policy of fever patients. The use of malaria diagnostics was also associated with higher prescription of antibiotics among

  16. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  17. Geohazards and myths: ancient memories of rapid coastal change in the Asia-Pacific region and their value to future adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunn, Patrick D.

    2014-12-01

    Rapid coastal change is common in the Asia-Pacific region yet an understanding of its causes, recurrence times, and impacts is not always clear through the use of conventional geological methods. It is suggested that myths (traditional [oral] tales) are underutilized sources of information about coastal change in this region. This is illustrated by consideration of myths likely to recall (early) Holocene sea-level rise, particularly along the coasts of India and Australia, as well as myths recalling rapid episodic coastal emergence and submergence, the latter including the disappearance of entire landmasses (islands). Two examples of how details in such myths can inform geological understanding of coastal change are given. The first argues that myths recalling the rapid flooding of coastal cities/lowlands are likely to represent memories of extreme wave events superimposed on a rising (postglacial) sea level. The second suggests that many myths about landmass/island disappearance fail to report the occurrence of rapid (coseismic and aseismic) subsidence even though they provide inferential evidence that this occurred. Few such myths are known to the author from many parts of Asia yet it is likely they exist and could, as elsewhere in the world, help illuminate the understanding of the nature and chronology of rapid coastal change. The challenges involved in helping communities in the Asia-Pacific region adapt to future coastal changes might be partly overcome by the use of appropriate myths to demonstrate precedents and engender local participation in adaptation strategies.

  18. Rapid and accurate identification of isolates of Candida species by melting peak and melting curve analysis of the internally transcribed spacer region 2 fragment (ITS2-MCA)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Decat, E.; van Mechelen, E.; Saerens, B.; Vermeulen, S.J.T.; Boekhout, T.; de Blaiser, S.; Vaneechoutte, M.; Deschaght, P.

    2013-01-01

    Rapid identification of clinically important yeasts can facilitate the initiation of anti-fungal therapy, since susceptibility is largely species-dependent. We evaluated melting peak and melting curve analysis of the internally transcribed spacer region 2 fragment (ITS2-MCA) as an identification

  19. A consistent structure of phytoplankton communities across the warm-cold regions of the water mass on a meridional transect in the East/Japan Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Jung Hyun; Han, Eunah; Lee, Sang Heon; Park, Hyun Je; Kim, Kyung-Ryul; Kang, Chang-Keun

    2017-09-01

    Three cruises were undertaken along a meridional transect in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) in spring (May 2007), summer (July 2009), and fall (October 2012) to determine the geographic variations in phytoplankton biomass and community composition. This study revealed a gradient of surface temperature and a fluctuation of hydrographic conditions along the transect. Although a subpolar front (SPF) formed between the warm- and cold-water masses (37-40°N), no significant differences in phytoplankton biomass and community composition were detected between the southern and northern parts of the EJS. These results disprove our initial hypothesis that different water masses may contain differently structured phytoplankton communities. In the present study, isothermal layers (≤ 12 °C) fluctuated over a depth of 50 m in both warm- and cold-water masses, depending on the SPF. In contrast, the nitracline (i.e. 2.5 μM nitrate isopleth) depth was recorded within a limited range of 20-40 m in spring, 30-50 m in summer, and 40-60 m in fall. The chlorophyll a concentrations at the subsurface chlorophyll maxima (SCM) were significantly higher in spring and summer (356 ± 233 and 270 ± 182 ng L-1, respectively) than in fall (117 ± 89 ng L-1). The relative contributions of individual phytoplankton groups to the depth-integrated chlorophyll a concentration conformed to the composition of the phytoplankton community in the SCM layer, showing a dominance of diatoms (58 ± 19% in spring, 48 ± 11% in summer, and 30 ± 20% in fall). Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that the geographic structures of phytoplankton communities were strongly associated with the vertical structures of water temperature and nutrient concentration in the water column rather than with horizontal gradients of hydrographic conditions. Finally, our findings suggest that water column stability and light-nutrient availability in the euphotic zone play a key role in determining geographical consistency of

  20. Study on the impact of sudden stratosphere warming in the upper mesosphere-lower thermosphere regions using satellite and HF radar measurements [Conference paper

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mbatha, N

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Neutral atmosphere (including the MLT) and ionosphere are linked by energy and momentum transfer. Thus, this whole region forms a coupled system in which influences that originates at one height or in one region can have profound influence elsewhere...

  1. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  2. Restriction fragment length polymorphism of the 5S-rRNA-NTS region: a rapid and precise method for plant identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertea, Cinzia Margherita; Gnavi, Giorgio

    2012-01-01

    Molecular genetic methods have several advantages over classical morphological and chemical analyses. The genetic method requires genotype instead than phenotype, therefore PCR-based techniques have been widely used for a rapid identification of plant species, varieties and chemotypes. Recently, the molecular discrimination of some higher plant species has been evaluated using sequences of a 5S-rRNA gene spacer region. The variation in the nontranscribed sequence (NTS) region has been used in a number of plant species for studying intraspecific variation, genome evolution, and phylogenetic reconstruction. Here, we describe a rapid method based on the use of the 5S-rRNA-NTS region as a tool for plant DNA fingerprinting, which combines PCR, sequencing and restriction fragment length polymorphism analyses.

  3. Rapid Bayesian point source inversion using pattern recognition --- bridging the gap between regional scaling relations and accurate physical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, A. P.; Kaeufl, P.; De Wit, R. W. L.; Trampert, J.

    2014-12-01

    Obtaining knowledge about source parameters in (near) real-time during or shortly after an earthquake is essential for mitigating damage and directing resources in the aftermath of the event. Therefore, a variety of real-time source-inversion algorithms have been developed over recent decades. This has been driven by the ever-growing availability of dense seismograph networks in many seismogenic areas of the world and the significant advances in real-time telemetry. By definition, these algorithms rely on short time-windows of sparse, local and regional observations, resulting in source estimates that are highly sensitive to observational errors, noise and missing data. In order to obtain estimates more rapidly, many algorithms are either entirely based on empirical scaling relations or make simplifying assumptions about the Earth's structure, which can in turn lead to biased results. It is therefore essential that realistic uncertainty bounds are estimated along with the parameters. A natural means of propagating probabilistic information on source parameters through the entire processing chain from first observations to potential end users and decision makers is provided by the Bayesian formalism.We present a novel method based on pattern recognition allowing us to incorporate highly accurate physical modelling into an uncertainty-aware real-time inversion algorithm. The algorithm is based on a pre-computed Green's functions database, containing a large set of source-receiver paths in a highly heterogeneous crustal model. Unlike similar methods, which often employ a grid search, we use a supervised learning algorithm to relate synthetic waveforms to point source parameters. This training procedure has to be performed only once and leads to a representation of the posterior probability density function p(m|d) --- the distribution of source parameters m given observations d --- which can be evaluated quickly for new data.Owing to the flexibility of the pattern

  4. The Validity of Rapid Malaria Test and Microscopy in Detecting Malaria in a Preelimination Region of Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Maysa Mohamed Kamel; Samar Sayed Attia; Gomaa Desoky Emam; Naglaa Abd El Khalek Al Sherbiny

    2016-01-01

    Background. Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Rapid and accurate diagnosis of malaria would improve control measures and reduce morbidity and mortality. Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of malaria in high risk foci in Egypt and the effectiveness of rapid diagnostic tests in diagnosis and subsequently control of malaria. Methodology. A total number of 600 cases of both sexes with different ages were included in the present study. Case...

  5. Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

    2014-11-03

    Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

  6. Warming shifts `worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B.

    2014-11-01

    Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

  7. Global warming - some perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Erlykin, Anatoly D.; Wolfendale, Arnold W.; Hanna, Edward

    2012-01-01

    Here the authors critically review the IPCC’s claim that global warming is “very likely” caused by human activity: such a description underestimates the likelihood of the warming being due to this mechanism. Next examined are known alternative “natural” mechanisms which could give rise to the warming if, despite many claims, the man-made explanation was false because of compensation effects (greenhouse gases versus aerosol effects). Also, a number of difficulties, as yet unresolved, ...

  8. Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948-2006 and links with climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xingqin; Wang, Anyu; Fong, Soi-kun; Lin, Wenshi; Liu, Ji

    2008-08-01

    Using1948-2006 surface 2 m daily temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset, summer warm extreme indices, warm days (TG90P), warm-spell days (WSFI), warm day-times (TX90P) and warm nights (TN90P) are calculated for Gaussian grids, a complete Northern Hemisphere (NH) picture of changes of summer warm extremes is presented, and their links with El Niño/La Niña & Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined in this paper. The results on the NH summer seasonal basis are as follows. Warm days, warm-spell days, warm day-times and warm nights increase at rates of 2.18, 1.23, 2.31 and 2.00 days/decade respectively during 1948-2006. A broader area is exposed to frequent occurrence of warm extremes in the recent 30 years than in the last 30 years. The 59-year long-term upward trend is characterized by a positive trend reversion in the late 1970s, with a slight downward trend in the last 30 years and a rapid upward trend in the recent 30 years, representing the main form of interdecadal variance of NH warm extremes. Warm days, warm-spell days, warm day-times and warm nights increase at rates of 4.53, 3.36, 4.44 and 4.21 days/decade respectively during 1977-2006. During 1948-2006, the largest increasing rate is at central tropical Atlantic and the largest decreasing rate in Mongolia and north China. Significant (level of 0.05) upward trends cover about half of the NH during 1948-2006 and about a third of the NH during 1977-2006 with the very significant upward trends more focused, while very sparse regions have significant downward trends during these two periods. In the recent 30 years, although NH-land summer warms at a faster rate than NH-water, warm extremes on NH-water increase much faster than those on NH-land, the average warm extreme indices and their increasing trends on NH are most modulated by

  9. Regional stratospheric warmings in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector during winter 2004/2005: implications for temperatures, winds, chemical constituents and the characterization of the Polar vortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Manson

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The vortex during winter 2004/2005 was interesting for several reasons. It has been described as "cold" stratospherically, with relatively strong westerly winds. Losses of ozone until the final warming in March were considerable, and comparable to the cold 1999–2000 winter. There were also modest warming events, indicated by peaks in 10 hPa zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes, near 1 January and 1 February. Events associated with a significant regional stratospheric warming in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector then began and peaked toward the end of February, providing strong longitudinal variations in dynamical characteristics (Chshyolkova et al., 2007; hereafter C07. The associated disturbed vortex of 25 February was displaced from the pole and either elongated (upper or split into two cyclonic centres (lower. Observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on Aura are used here to study the thermal characteristics of the stratosphere in the Canadian-US (253° E and Scandinavian-Europe (16° E sectors. Undisturbed high latitude stratopause (55 km zonal mean temperatures during the mid-winter (December–February reached 270 K, warmer than empirical-models such as CIRA-86, suggesting that seasonal polar warming due to dynamical influences affects the high altitude stratosphere as well as the mesosphere. There were also significant stratopause differences between Scandinavia and Canada during the warming events of 1 January and 1 February, with higher temperatures near 275 K at 16° E. During the 25 February "PWC" event a warming occurred at low and middle stratospheric heights (10–30 km: 220 K at 253° E and the stratopause cooled; while over Scandinavia-Europe the stratosphere below ~30 km was relatively cold at 195 K and the stratopause became even warmer (>295 K and lower (~45 km. The zonal winds followed the associated temperature gradients so that the vertical and latitudinal gradients of the winds differed strongly between

  10. Regional stratospheric warmings in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector during winter 2004/2005: implications for temperatures, winds, chemical constituents and the characterization of the Polar vortex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Manson

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The vortex during winter 2004/2005 was interesting for several reasons. It has been described as "cold" stratospherically, with relatively strong westerly winds. Losses of ozone until the final warming in March were considerable, and comparable to the cold 1999–2000 winter. There were also modest warming events, indicated by peaks in 10 hPa zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes, near 1 January and 1 February. Events associated with a significant regional stratospheric warming in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector then began and peaked toward the end of February, providing strong longitudinal variations in dynamical characteristics (Chshyolkova et al., 2007; hereafter C07. The associated disturbed vortex of 25 February was displaced from the pole and either elongated (upper or split into two cyclonic centres (lower.

    Observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on Aura are used here to study the thermal characteristics of the stratosphere in the Canadian-US (253° E and Scandinavian-Europe (16° E sectors. Undisturbed high latitude stratopause (55 km zonal mean temperatures during the mid-winter (December–February reached 270 K, warmer than empirical-models such as CIRA-86, suggesting that seasonal polar warming due to dynamical influences affects the high altitude stratosphere as well as the mesosphere. There were also significant stratopause differences between Scandinavia and Canada during the warming events of 1 January and 1 February, with higher temperatures near 275 K at 16° E. During the 25 February "PWC" event a warming occurred at low and middle stratospheric heights (10–30 km: 220 K at 253° E and the stratopause cooled; while over Scandinavia-Europe the stratosphere below ~30 km was relatively cold at 195 K and the stratopause became even warmer (>295 K and lower (~45 km. The zonal winds followed the associated temperature gradients so that the vertical and latitudinal gradients of the winds differed strongly

  11. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-06-03

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

  12. Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

    2015-06-02

    Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.

  13. Enhanced greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic with experimental warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, Carolina; Lamprecht, Richard E.; Marushchak, Maija E.; Lind, Saara E.; Novakovskiy, Alexander; Aurela, Mika; Martikainen, Pertti J.; Biasi, Christina

    2017-04-01

    Temperatures in the Arctic are projected to increase more rapidly than in lower latitudes. With temperature being a key factor for regulating biogeochemical processes in ecosystems, even a subtle temperature increase might promote the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. Usually, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are the GHGs dominating the climatic impact of tundra. However, bare, patterned ground features in the Arctic have recently been identified as hot spots for nitrous oxide (N2O). N2O is a potent greenhouse gas, which is almost 300 times more effective in its global warming potential than CO2; but studies on arctic N2O fluxes are rare. In this study we examined the impact of temperature increase on the seasonal GHG balance of all three important GHGs (CO2, CH4 and N2O) from three tundra surface types (vegetated peat soils, unvegetated peat soils, upland mineral soils) in the Russian Arctic (67˚ 03' N 62˚ 55' E), during the course of two growing seasons. We deployed open-top chambers (OTCs), inducing air and soil surface warming, thus mimicking predicted warming scenarios. We combined detailed CO2, CH4 and N2O flux studies with concentration measurements of these gases within the soil profile down to the active layer-permafrost interface, and complemented these GHG measurements with detailed soil nutrient (nitrate and ammonium) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements in the soil pore water profile. In our study, gentle air warming (˜1.0 ˚ C) increased the seasonal GHG release of all dominant surface types: the GHG budget of vegetated peat and mineral soils, which together cover more than 80 % of the land area in our study region, shifted from a sink to a source of -300 to 144 g CO2-eq m-2 and from -198 to 105 g CO2-eq m-2, respectively. While the positive warming response was governed by CO2, we provide here the first in situ evidence that warming increases arctic N2O emissions: Warming did not only enhance N2O emissions from

  14. Regional estimation of savanna grass nitrogen using the red-edge band of the spaceborne RapidEye sensor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramoelo, A.; Skidmore, A.K.; Cho, M.A.; Schlerf, M.; Mathieu, M.; Heitkonig, I.M.A.

    2012-01-01

    The regional mapping of grass nutrients is of interest in the sustainable planning and management of livestock and wildlife grazing. The objective of this study was to estimate and map foliar and canopy nitrogen (N) at a regional scale using a recent high resolution spaceborne multispectral sensor

  15. [Invasive fungal disease (IFD) by filamentous fungi in the Valparaíso Region, Chile, since implementation of rapid laboratory diagnosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, Rodrigo; Álvarez, Patricio; Provoste, Felipe; Ducasse, Karen; González, Marcela; Wilson, Gonzalo; Díaz, Javier

    2015-04-01

    Invasive fungal diseases (IFD) by filamentous fungi are a common cause of morbidity and mortality in immunocompromised patients, especially those with myeloid leukemia. In 2011 a protocol for the rapid diagnosis of IFD by filamentous fungi was implemented in Valparaiso Region. To describe cases of IFD by filamentous fungi of the Valparaíso Region, since the implementation of rapid diagnosis and to compare results with the period 2004-2009. Descriptive and prospective study conducted in two public hospitals: Carlos van Buren at Valparaiso and Gustavo Fricke at Viña del Mar. We selected patients with a diagnosis of filamentous fungal diseases considering the EORTC/MSG criteria. Demographics, underlying diseases, risk factors for EFI, galactomannan (GM) results in blood and bronchoalveolar lavage, cultures and biopsies, treatment and overall lethality rates at 30 days were registered. Eighteen patients were detected, 6 with proven and 12 probable IFD. Nine were diagnosed by GM, 8 by culture and two with both methods. In cases which the agent (9/18) was isolated from Rhizopus oryzae was the most frequent. When comparing overall lethality with the period 2004-2009, there was a reduction of 47.8%, which was statistically significant. Compared to data previously published in the region, demographic and comorbidities of patients with IFD caused by filamentous fungi are similar, however the currently rapid diagnosis protocol has improved survival of patients and lethality experienced overall decrease.

  16. Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinova, Ilona; Chmielewski, Frank-Michael

    2015-06-01

    Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

  17. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tropospheric temperature through a 'positive feedback'. And again, as the troposphere warms up, its water holding capacity also increases, amplifying chances of further warming. But satellite data indicate that free troposphere is largely cut-off from the surface and evaporated water may not moisten the free troposphere ...

  18. Warming shifts ‘worming’: effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America

    OpenAIRE

    Nico Eisenhauer; Artur Stefanski; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Karen Rice; Roy Rich; Reich, Peter B.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm...

  19. [Effects of climate warming on oil flax growth and water use efficiency in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau, Northwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yu-bi; Wang, Run-yuan; Yang, Jin-hu; Xiao, Guo-ju; Zhang, Xiu-yun; Yue, Ping

    2011-10-01

    By using the site-specific observation data of oil flax growth and related meteorological records in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau, this paper studied the effects of climate change on the oil flax growth, and analyzed the relationships between the oil flax water use efficiency and meteorological condition. In this region, the annual precipitation displayed a decreasing trend, and its climatic trend rate was -15.80 mm (10 a)(-1), with an annual periodic change of 3 a and 6 a, whereas the annual air temperature had an increasing trend, and its climatic trend rate was 0.36 degrees C (10 a)(-1). In crop growth period, the aridity index displayed a marked increasing trend, its climatic trend rate was 0.12 (10 a)(-1), and the aridity tendency was more obvious from the beginning of 1990s to the year 2009. From sowing to maturation, oil flax needed 120-150 d, 1700-2100 degrees C d of > or = 0 degrees C accumulated temperature, 200-250 mm precipitation, and 1000-1300 h sunshine hours. The main meteorological factors affecting the oil flax growth in the region were air temperature and precipitation. The increase of air temperature shortened the prophase vegetative growth stage, whereas the increase of air temperature and the decrease of precipitation extended the reproductive growth stage, causing the extension of the whole growth period of the oil flax. The air temperature in the oil flax whole growth period except at seeding stage and maturing stage had negative effect on the yield formation, being more obvious at squaring stage, whereas the precipitation in the whole growth period except at blooming stage had positive effect on the yield formation, being more obvious at seeding stage. The water use efficiency of the oil flax was significantly positively correlated with the air temperature and sunshine hours at seeding stage as well as the aridity index from squaring stage to maturing stage, and negatively correlated with the precipitation from squaring stage to

  20. New rapid, accurate T2 quantification detects pathology in normal-appearing brain regions of relapsing-remitting MS patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy M. Shepherd

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: The EMC algorithm precisely characterizes T2 values, and is able to detect subtle T2 changes in normal-appearing brain regions of RRMS patients. These presumably capture both axon and myelin changes from inflammation and neurodegeneration. Further, T2 variations between different brain regions of healthy controls may correlate with distinct nervous tissue environments that differ from one another at a mesoscopic length-scale.

  1. The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2007-01-01

    With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

  2. The discoveries of WASP-91b, WASP-105b and WASP-107b: Two warm Jupiters and a planet in the transition region between ice giants and gas giants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. R.; Collier Cameron, A.; Delrez, L.; Doyle, A. P.; Gillon, M.; Hellier, C.; Jehin, E.; Lendl, M.; Maxted, P. F. L.; Madhusudhan, N.; Pepe, F.; Pollacco, D.; Queloz, D.; Ségransan, D.; Smalley, B.; Smith, A. M. S.; Triaud, A. H. M. J.; Turner, O. D.; Udry, S.; West, R. G.

    2017-08-01

    We report the discoveries of three transiting exoplanets. WASP-91b is a warm Jupiter (1.34 MJup, 1.03 RJup) in a 2.8-day orbit around a metal-rich K3 star. WASP-105b is a warm Jupiter (1.8 MJup, 0.96 RJup) in a 7.9-day orbit around a metal-rich K2 star. WASP-107b is a warm super-Neptune/sub-Saturn (0.12 MJup, 0.94 RJup) in a 5.7-day orbit around a solar-metallicity K6 star. Considering that giant planets seem to be more common around stars of higher metallicity and stars of higher mass, it is notable that the hosts are all metal-rich, late-type stars. With orbital separations that place both WASP-105b and WASP-107b in the weak-tide regime, measurements of the alignment between the planets' orbital axes and their stars' spin axes may help us to understand the inward migration of short-period, giant planets. The mass of WASP-107b (2.2 MNep, 0.40 MSat) places it in the transition region between the ice giants and gas giants of the Solar System. Its radius of 0.94 RJup suggests that it is a low-mass gas giant with a H/He-dominated composition. The planet thus sets a lower limit of 2.2 MNep on the planetary mass above which large gaseous envelopes can be accreted and retained by proto-planets on their way to becoming gas giants. We may discover whether WASP-107b more closely resembles an ice giant or a gas giant by measuring its atmospheric metallicity via transmission spectroscopy, for which WASP-107b is a very good target. Based on observations made with: the WASP-South photometric survey instrument, the 0.6-m TRAPPIST robotic imager, and the EulerCam camera and the CORALIE spectrograph mounted on the 1.2-m Euler-Swiss telescope.The photometric time-series and radial-velocity data used in this work are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/604/A110

  3. Volcanoes drive climate variability by emitting ozone weeks before eruptions, by forming lower stratospheric aerosols, by causing sustained ozone depletion, and by causing rapid changes in regional ozone concentrations affecting temperature and pressure differences driving atmospheric oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.

    2016-12-01

    Total column ozone observed by satellite on February 19, 2010, increased 75% in a plume from Eyjafjallajökull volcano in southern Iceland eastward past Novaya Zemlya, extending laterally from northern Greenland to southern Norway (http://youtu.be/wJFZcPEfoR4). Contemporaneous ground deformation and rapidly increasing numbers of earthquakes imply magma began rising from a sill 4-6 km below the volcano, erupting a month later. Whether the ozone formed from the magma or from very hot gases rising through cracks in the ground is unclear. On February 20-22, 1991, similar increases in ozone were observed north of Pinatubo volcano before its initial eruption on April 2 (http://youtu.be/5y1PU2Qu3ag). Annual average total column ozone during the year of most moderate to large explosive volcanic eruptions since routine observations of ozone began in 1927 has been substantially higher than normal. Increased total column ozone absorbs more solar ultraviolet-B radiation, warming the ozone layer and cooling Earth. Most major volcanic eruptions form sulfuric-acid aerosols in the lower part of the ozone layer providing aqueous surfaces on which heterogeneous chemical reactions enhance ozone depletion. Within a year, aerosol droplets grew large enough to reflect and scatter high-frequency solar radiation, cooling Earth 0.5oC for 2-3 years. Temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere rose 0.7oC in 28 years from 1970 to 1998 (HadCRUT4), while annual average ozone at Arosa dropped 27 DU because of manufactured CFC gases. Beginning in August 2014, temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere rose another 0.6oC in less than two years apparently because of the 6-month eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano in central Iceland, the highest rate of basaltic lava extrusion since 1783. Large extrusions of basaltic lava are typically contemporaneous with the greatest periods of warming throughout Earth history. Ozone concentrations at Arosa change by season typically from 370 DU during

  4. Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-03-26

    Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

  5. New rapid, accurate T2 quantification detects pathology in normal-appearing brain regions of relapsing-remitting MS patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Timothy M; Kirov, Ivan I; Charlson, Erik; Bruno, Mary; Babb, James; Sodickson, Daniel K; Ben-Eliezer, Noam

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative T2 mapping may provide an objective biomarker for occult nervous tissue pathology in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). We applied a novel echo modulation curve (EMC) algorithm to identify T2 changes in normal-appearing brain regions of subjects with RRMS (N = 27) compared to age-matched controls (N = 38). The EMC algorithm uses Bloch simulations to model T2 decay curves in multi-spin-echo MRI sequences, independent of scanner, and scan-settings. T2 values were extracted from normal-appearing white and gray matter brain regions using both expert manual regions-of-interest and user-independent FreeSurfer segmentation. Compared to conventional exponential T2 modeling, EMC fitting provided more accurate estimations of T2 with less variance across scans, MRI systems, and healthy individuals. Thalamic T2 was increased 8.5% in RRMS subjects (p brain regions of RRMS patients. These presumably capture both axon and myelin changes from inflammation and neurodegeneration. Further, T2 variations between different brain regions of healthy controls may correlate with distinct nervous tissue environments that differ from one another at a mesoscopic length-scale.

  6. Drought under Global Warming: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, A.

    2011-12-01

    One of the big concerns associated with global warming is the potential change to land surface moisture conditions that could have a huge impact on agriculture, freshwater resources, and many other aspects of our society and the environment. How drought has changed during recent past and how it might change in the coming decades is increasingly becoming a great concern as global warming continues and more severe droughts are reported in the media. In this presentation, I will provide an overview, based on my own and others' work, of how drought has changed in the last several centuries and during recent decades over many regions around the world based on historical records, and how it might change in the coming decades based on IPCC AR4 model-predicted climate changes. I will present results from analyses of changes in precipitation, streamflow, soil moisture, and (improved) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to show that aridity has increased during the last 50-60 years over many land areas, and rapid warming since the 1980s has contributed significantly to this drying. The PDSI (with improved evapotranspiration estimates) calculated from the AR4 multi-model predicted future climate suggests severe drying in the next 20-50 years over most land areas except the northern high-latitudes and parts of Asia. This drying pattern is consistent with other analyses of model-predicted soil moisture and precipitation changes. Although the quantitative interpretation of the future PDSI values may need to be cautious, combined with the other analyses, the PDSI result points to a dire situation with more severe to extreme droughts in the coming decades over the continental U.S., most of Africa and South America, Australia, southern Europe, and western and southeastern Asia. Changes in precipitation play an important role over many land areas, but enhanced evaporation due to increased radiative heating is also a major factor for the model-predicted drying. For more details, see

  7. CLASP/SJ Observations of Rapid Time Variations in the Lyα Emission in a Solar Active Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Shin-nosuke; Kubo, Masahito; Katsukawa, Yukio; Kano, Ryouhei; Narukage, Noriyuki; Ishikawa, Ryohko; Bando, Takamasa; Winebarger, Amy; Kobayashi, Ken; Trujillo Bueno, Javier; Auchère, Frédéric

    2017-09-01

    The Chromospheric Lyα SpectroPolarimeter (CLASP) is a sounding rocket experiment launched on 2015 September 3 to investigate the solar chromosphere and transition region. The slit-jaw (SJ) optical system captured Lyα images with a high time cadence of 0.6 s. From the CLASP/SJ observations, many variations in the solar chromosphere and transition region emission with a timescale of SJ field of view and investigate the relationship between short (<30 s) temporal variations in the Lyα emission and the coronal structures observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We compare the Lyα temporal variations at the coronal loop footpoints observed in the AIA 211 Å (≈2 MK) and AIA 171 Å (≈0.6 MK) channels with those in the regions with bright Lyα features without a clear association with the coronal loop footpoints. We find more short (<30 s) temporal variations in the Lyα intensity in the footpoint regions. Those variations did not depend on the temperature of the coronal loops. Therefore, the temporal variations in the Lyα intensity at this timescale range could be related to the heating of the coronal structures up to temperatures around the sensitivity peak of 171 Å. No signature was found to support the scenario that these Lyα intensity variations were related to the nanoflares. Waves or jets from the lower layers (lower chromosphere or photosphere) are possible causes for this phenomenon.

  8. An aerosol climatology for a rapidly growing arid region (southern Arizona): Major aerosol species and remotely sensed aerosol properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorooshian, Armin; Wonaschütz, Anna; Jarjour, Elias G; Hashimoto, Bryce I; Schichtel, Bret A; Betterton, Eric A

    2011-10-01

    This study reports a comprehensive characterization of atmospheric aerosol particle properties in relation to meteorological and back trajectory data in the southern Arizona region, which includes two of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United States (Phoenix and Tucson). Multiple data sets (MODIS, AERONET, OMI/TOMS, MISR, GOCART, ground-based aerosol measurements) are used to examine monthly trends in aerosol composition, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and aerosol size. Fine soil, sulfate, and organics dominate PM2.5 mass in the region. Dust strongly influences the region between March and July owing to the dry and hot meteorological conditions and back trajectory patterns. Because monsoon precipitation begins typically in July, dust levels decrease, while AOD, sulfate, and organic aerosol reach their maximum levels because of summertime photochemistry and monsoon moisture. Evidence points to biogenic volatile organic compounds being a significant source of secondary organic aerosol in this region. Biomass burning also is shown to be a major contributor to the carbonaceous aerosol budget in the region, leading to enhanced organic and elemental carbon levels aloft at a sky-island site north of Tucson (Mt. Lemmon). Phoenix exhibits different monthly trends for aerosol components in comparison with the other sites owing to the strong influence of fossil carbon and anthropogenic dust. Trend analyses between 1988 and 2009 indicate that the strongest statistically significant trends are reductions in sulfate, elemental carbon, and organic carbon, and increases in fine soil during the spring (March-May) at select sites. These results can be explained by population growth, land-use changes, and improved source controls.

  9. Recent Warming, Rather than Industrial Emissions of Bioavailable Nutrients, Is the Dominant Driver of Lake Primary Production Shifts across the Athabasca Oil Sands Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Jamie C; Kurek, Joshua; Kirk, Jane L; Muir, Derek C G; Wang, Xiaowa; Wiklund, Johan A; Cooke, Colin A; Evans, Marlene S; Smol, John P

    2016-01-01

    Freshwaters in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) are vulnerable to the atmospheric emissions and land disturbances caused by the local oil sands industry; however, they are also affected by climate change. Recent observations of increases in aquatic primary production near the main development area have prompted questions about the principal drivers of these limnological changes. Is the enhanced primary production due to deposition of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) from local industry or from recent climatic changes? Here, we use downcore, spectrally-inferred chlorophyll-a (VRS-chla) profiles (including diagenetic products) from 23 limnologically-diverse lakes with undisturbed catchments to characterize the pattern of primary production increases in the AOSR. Our aim is to better understand the relative roles of the local oil sands industry versus climate change in driving aquatic primary production trends. Nutrient deposition maps, generated using geostatistical interpolations of spring-time snowpack measurements from a grid pattern across the AOSR, demonstrate patterns of elevated total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and bioavailable nitrogen deposition around the main area of industrial activity. However, this pattern is not observed for bioavailable phosphorus. Our paleolimnological findings demonstrate consistently greater VRS-chla concentrations compared to pre-oil sands development levels, regardless of morphological and limnological characteristics, landscape position, bioavailable nutrient deposition, and dibenzothiophene (DBT)-inferred industrial impacts. Furthermore, breakpoint analyses on VRS-chla concentrations across a gradient of DBT-inferred industrial impact show limited evidence of a contemporaneous change among lakes. Despite the contribution of bioavailable nitrogen to the landscape from industrial activities, we find no consistency in the spatial pattern and timing of VRS-chla shifts with an industrial fertilizing signal. Instead

  10. Recent Warming, Rather than Industrial Emissions of Bioavailable Nutrients, Is the Dominant Driver of Lake Primary Production Shifts across the Athabasca Oil Sands Region.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie C Summers

    Full Text Available Freshwaters in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR are vulnerable to the atmospheric emissions and land disturbances caused by the local oil sands industry; however, they are also affected by climate change. Recent observations of increases in aquatic primary production near the main development area have prompted questions about the principal drivers of these limnological changes. Is the enhanced primary production due to deposition of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus from local industry or from recent climatic changes? Here, we use downcore, spectrally-inferred chlorophyll-a (VRS-chla profiles (including diagenetic products from 23 limnologically-diverse lakes with undisturbed catchments to characterize the pattern of primary production increases in the AOSR. Our aim is to better understand the relative roles of the local oil sands industry versus climate change in driving aquatic primary production trends. Nutrient deposition maps, generated using geostatistical interpolations of spring-time snowpack measurements from a grid pattern across the AOSR, demonstrate patterns of elevated total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and bioavailable nitrogen deposition around the main area of industrial activity. However, this pattern is not observed for bioavailable phosphorus. Our paleolimnological findings demonstrate consistently greater VRS-chla concentrations compared to pre-oil sands development levels, regardless of morphological and limnological characteristics, landscape position, bioavailable nutrient deposition, and dibenzothiophene (DBT-inferred industrial impacts. Furthermore, breakpoint analyses on VRS-chla concentrations across a gradient of DBT-inferred industrial impact show limited evidence of a contemporaneous change among lakes. Despite the contribution of bioavailable nitrogen to the landscape from industrial activities, we find no consistency in the spatial pattern and timing of VRS-chla shifts with an industrial fertilizing signal

  11. Cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention based on a rapid human papillomavirus screening test in a high-risk region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Carol E; Sellors, John; Shi, Ju-Fang; Ma, Li; Qiao, You-lin; Ortendahl, Jesse; O'Shea, Meredith K H; Goldie, Sue J

    2010-09-01

    This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a new, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV)-DNA screening test for cervical cancer prevention in the high-risk region of Shanxi, China. Using micro-costing methods, we estimated the resources needed to implement preventive strategies using cervical cytology or HPV-DNA testing, including the Hybrid Capture 2 (hc2) test (QIAGEN Corp., Gaithersburg, MD) and the rapid HPV-DNA careHPV test (QIAGEN). Data were used in a previously published model and empirically calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data. Strategies differed by initial test, targeted age, frequency of screening, number of clinic visits required (1, 2 or 3) and service delivery setting (national, county and township levels). Outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved (YLS), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per YLS). For all screening frequencies, the most efficient strategy used 2-visit rapid HPV-DNA testing at the county level, including screening and diagnostics in the first visit, and treatment in the second visit. Screening at ages 35, 40 and 45 reduced cancer risk by 50% among women compliant with all 3 screening rounds, and was US$ 150 per YLS, compared with this same strategy applied twice per lifetime. This would be considered very cost-effective evaluated against China's per-capita gross domestic product (US$ 1,702). By enhancing the linkage between screening and treatment through a reduced number of visits, rapid HPV-DNA testing 3 times per lifetime is more effective than traditional cytology, and is likely to be cost-effective in high-risk regions of China.

  12. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  13. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 6. Global Warming: A Myth? - Anomalous Temperature Trends Recorded from Satellites and Radiosondes. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 6 June 2001 pp 43-52 ...

  14. Global Warming on Trial

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broecker, Wallace S

    1992-01-01

      The issue of global warming is fraught with controversy, as it pits groups who are concerned with the short-term well-being of society against those who fear for the long-term future of the planet...

  15. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  16. Pan-genome sequence analysis using Panseq: an online tool for the rapid analysis of core and accessory genomic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villegas Andre

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The pan-genome of a bacterial species consists of a core and an accessory gene pool. The accessory genome is thought to be an important source of genetic variability in bacterial populations and is gained through lateral gene transfer, allowing subpopulations of bacteria to better adapt to specific niches. Low-cost and high-throughput sequencing platforms have created an exponential increase in genome sequence data and an opportunity to study the pan-genomes of many bacterial species. In this study, we describe a new online pan-genome sequence analysis program, Panseq. Results Panseq was used to identify Escherichia coli O157:H7 and E. coli K-12 genomic islands. Within a population of 60 E. coli O157:H7 strains, the existence of 65 accessory genomic regions identified by Panseq analysis was confirmed by PCR. The accessory genome and binary presence/absence data, and core genome and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs of six L. monocytogenes strains were extracted with Panseq and hierarchically clustered and visualized. The nucleotide core and binary accessory data were also used to construct maximum parsimony (MP trees, which were compared to the MP tree generated by multi-locus sequence typing (MLST. The topology of the accessory and core trees was identical but differed from the tree produced using seven MLST loci. The Loci Selector module found the most variable and discriminatory combinations of four loci within a 100 loci set among 10 strains in 1 s, compared to the 449 s required to exhaustively search for all possible combinations; it also found the most discriminatory 20 loci from a 96 loci E. coli O157:H7 SNP dataset. Conclusion Panseq determines the core and accessory regions among a collection of genomic sequences based on user-defined parameters. It readily extracts regions unique to a genome or group of genomes, identifies SNPs within shared core genomic regions, constructs files for use in phylogeny programs

  17. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  18. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  19. Impact of a warm core eddy on near-surface wind at Brazil-Malvinas Confluence region in high resolution simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackerott, J. A.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Camargo, R. D.; Pezzi, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Several studies show that near surface winds acquire anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity and accelerate (decelerate) when flow in the same direction as positive (negative) orientation of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient. Many of them were made over different oceanic thermal fronts in the world analyzing contrasts in SST gradients. However, still remains much uncertainty about how strong is this wind modulation, particularly on areas in need of studies and in-situ data, such as the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Region (BMC) where intense SST gradients are found. This study brings results of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, configured with nested grids, where it is compared the influence of distinct synoptic patterns observed at BMC where three different SST patterns are imposed to WRF. These patterns are: (1) with a typical smoothed SST field, named as Control; (2) Small Eddy, which is the same as Control but adding an eddy of 1° radius and a +2°C amplitude; and (3) Intense Eddy, which is also the same as Control, but where an eddy of 1° radius and +4°C amplitude is added. The artificial imposed eddy is analogous to the SST patterns observed at BMC, with different intensities. The simulations were integrated for 76 hours using initial and lateral boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model with 0.5° resolution. The results showed that the wind at 10m height is influenced by the diurnal cycle of turbulence in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) modified by variations in SST. The wind magnitude changes up to 1m.s-1 over a 4/50°C.km-1 SST gradient and 0.6m.s-1 over a 2/50°C.km-1 SST gradient. This effect generates meso-scale disturbances that propagate to larger scales leading to disturbances in remote areas. Thus, the preliminary analyses are suggesting that there is an interaction between the meso and synoptic scale playing a role. Mechanisms such this one might not be captured by atmospheric

  20. Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuka Suzuki-Parker

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

  1. Application of LC-MS and tristimulus colorimetry to assess the ageing aptitude of Syrah wine in the Condado de Huelva D.O. (Spain), a typical warm climate region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordillo, B; Rodríguez-Pulido, F J; Mateus, N; Escudero-Gilete, M L; González-Miret, M L; Heredia, F J; de Freitas, V

    2012-06-30

    The study of the evolutions of different wine pigment families, copigmentation/polymerisation processes and colour characteristics during the first year of ageing in oak barrel has allowed the assessment of the ageing aptitude of Syrah wines from "Condado de Huelva D.O.", a warm climate region. A total of 32 anthocyanic pigments were identified, including 14 major compounds from grape and 18 minor derivatives formed during the vinification. The anthocyanin profile changed towards more chemical complexity, being vitisin-like pyranoanthocyanins the predominant minor pigments during the first month of ageing. As wine became older, a progressive increase on the content of 4-vinylcatechin, 4-vinylphenol and 4-vinylcatechol compounds took place. Results showed that copigmentation occurred during the whole process of ageing inducing visual perceptible colour effects. Simultaneously to the copigmentation decrease, the degree of polymerisation increased during ageing, being maximum at 9 months old wines (77%). The colour of wines evolved progressively in a positive way from 3 to 9 months of ageing, becoming darker and with more vivid colour. However, from 9 to 12 months of ageing, the chemical structure of wines was negatively affected resulting in lighter, with more red-orange hues and less vivid colours. The inclusion of the chemical and colorimetric information on the PCA model allows us to reach very good discriminations among the Syrah wines with different wood contact period. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Rapidly Growing Mega-Regions as a Coupled Human-Natural System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J. A.; Tang, W.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

    2013-12-01

    The FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) integrates information on nonstationary drivers of land change (per capita land area demand, site suitability, and spatial structure of conversion events) into spatial-temporal projections of changes in landscape patterns (Meentemeyer et al., 2013). One striking feature of FUTURES is its patch-growth algorithm that includes feedback effects of former development events across several temporal and spatial scales: cell-level transition events are aggregated into patches of land change and their further growth is based on empirically derived parameters controlling its size, shape, and dispersion. Here, we augment the FUTURES modeling framework by expanding its multilevel structure and its representation of human decision making. The new modeling framework is hierarchically organized as nested subsystems including the latest theory on telecouplings in coupled human-natural systems (Liu et al., 2013). Each subsystem represents a specific level of spatial scale and embraces agents that have decision making authority at a particular level. The subsystems are characterized with regard to their spatial representation and are connected via flows of information (e.g. regulations and policies) or material (e.g. population migration). To provide a modeling framework that is applicable to a wide range of settings and geographical regions and to keep it computationally manageable, we implement a 'zooming factor' that allows to enable or disable subsystems (and hence the represented processes), based on the extent of the study region. The implementation of the FUTURES modeling framework for a specific case study follows the observational modeling approach described in Grimm et al. (2005), starting from the analysis of empirical data in order to capture the processes relevant for specific scales and to allow a rigorous calibration and validation of the model application. In this paper, we give an introduction to the basic

  3. Stratospheric warming in Southern Hemisphere high latitudes since 1979

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hu

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, we show evidence of significant stratospheric warming over Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and large portions of the Antarctic polar region in winter and spring seasons, with a maximum warming of 7–8°C in September and October, using satellite Microwave Sounding Unit observations for 1979–2006. It is found that this warming is associated with increasing wave activity from the troposphere into the stratosphere, suggesting that the warming is caused by enhanced wave-driven adiabatic heating. We show that the stratospheric warming in Southern Hemisphere high latitudes has close correlations with sea surface temperature (SST increases, and that general circulation model simulations forced with observed time-varying SSTs reproduce similar warming trend patterns in the Antarctic stratosphere. The simulated stratospheric warming is closely related to increasing wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings suggest that the stratospheric warming is likely induced by SST warming. As SST warming continues as a consequence of greenhouse gas increases due to anthropogenic activity, the stratospheric warming would also continue, which has important implications to the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole.

  4. Rapid ice unloading in the Fleming Glacier region, southern Antarctic Peninsula, and its effect on bedrock uplift rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Chen; King, Matt A.; Watson, Christopher S.

    2017-01-01

    m at the front of Fleming Glacier. Using IceBridge and ICESat-2/GLAS data spanning 2002–2014, we show an increased rate of mean ice-surface lowering, with rates post-2008 more than twice those of 2002–2008. We use these load change data as a basis for the simulation of viscoelastic solid Earth...... deformation. We subtract modeled elastic deformation rates, and a suite of modeled viscous rates, from GPS-derived three-dimensional bedrock velocities at sites to the south of Fleming Glacier to infer properties of Earth rheology. Assuming the pre-breakup bedrock uplift was positive due to post-Last Glacial...... the Fleming Glacier, after the application of elastic and plate tectonic corrections, point away from Marguerite Bay rather than the present glacier front. This suggests that horizontal motion in the region reflects the earlier retreat of the glacier system following the LGM, compatible with a relatively...

  5. Causes and consequences of mid–21st-century rapid ice loss events simulated by the Rossby centre regional atmosphere-ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe Paquin

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent observations and modelling studies suggest that the Arctic climate is undergoing important transition. One manifestation of this change is seen in the rapid sea-ice cover decrease as experienced in 2007 and 2012. Although most numerical climate models cannot adequately reproduce the recent changes, some models produce similar Rapid Ice Loss Events (RILEs during the mid–21st-century. This study presents an analysis of four specific RILEs clustered around 2040 in three transient climate projections performed with the coupled Rossby Centre regional Atmosphere-Ocean model (RCAO. The analysis shows that long-term thinning causes increased vulnerability of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover. In the Atlantic sector, pre-conditioning (thinning of sea ice combined with anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transport causes large ice loss, while in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice albedo feedback appears important, particularly along the retreating sea-ice margin. Although maximum sea-ice loss occurs in the autumn, response in surface air temperature occurs in early winter, caused by strong increase in ocean-atmosphere surface energy fluxes, mainly the turbulent fluxes. Synchronicity of the events around 2040 in the projections is caused by a strong large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly at the Atlantic lateral boundary of the regional model. The limited impact on land is caused by vertical propagation of the surface heat anomaly rather than horizontal, caused by the absence of low-level temperature inversion over the ocean.

  6. Warm eyes provide superior vision in swordfishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritsches, Kerstin A; Brill, Richard W; Warrant, Eric J

    2005-01-11

    Large and powerful ocean predators such as swordfishes, some tunas, and several shark species are unique among fishes in that they are capable of maintaining elevated body temperatures (endothermy) when hunting for prey in deep and cold water . In these animals, warming the central nervous system and the eyes is the one common feature of this energetically costly adaptation . In the swordfish (Xiphias gladius), a highly specialized heating system located in an extraocular muscle specifically warms the eyes and brain up to 10 degrees C-15 degrees C above ambient water temperatures . Although the function of neural warming in fishes has been the subject of considerable speculation , the biological significance of this unusual ability has until now remained unknown. We show here that warming the retina significantly improves temporal resolution, and hence the detection of rapid motion, in fast-swimming predatory fishes such as the swordfish. Depending on diving depth, temporal resolution can be more than ten times greater in these fishes than in fishes with eyes at the same temperature as the surrounding water. The enhanced temporal resolution allowed by heated eyes provides warm-blooded and highly visual oceanic predators, such as swordfishes, tunas, and sharks, with a crucial advantage over their agile, cold-blooded prey.

  7. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.

    2011-07-19

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  8. Rapid profiling of the antigen regions recognized by serum antibodies using massively parallel sequencing of antigen-specific libraries.

    KAUST Repository

    Domina, Maria

    2014-12-04

    There is a need for techniques capable of identifying the antigenic epitopes targeted by polyclonal antibody responses during deliberate or natural immunization. Although successful, traditional phage library screening is laborious and can map only some of the epitopes. To accelerate and improve epitope identification, we have employed massive sequencing of phage-displayed antigen-specific libraries using the Illumina MiSeq platform. This enabled us to precisely identify the regions of a model antigen, the meningococcal NadA virulence factor, targeted by serum antibodies in vaccinated individuals and to rank hundreds of antigenic fragments according to their immunoreactivity. We found that next generation sequencing can significantly empower the analysis of antigen-specific libraries by allowing simultaneous processing of dozens of library/serum combinations in less than two days, including the time required for antibody-mediated library selection. Moreover, compared with traditional plaque picking, the new technology (named Phage-based Representation OF Immuno-Ligand Epitope Repertoire or PROFILER) provides superior resolution in epitope identification. PROFILER seems ideally suited to streamline and guide rational antigen design, adjuvant selection, and quality control of newly produced vaccines. Furthermore, this method is also susceptible to find important applications in other fields covered by traditional quantitative serology.

  9. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  10. The effects of different warm stratification periods on the seed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, the effects of different warm stratification periods on the seed germination of some Rosa species such as Rosa heckellana ssp. vanheurckiana, Rosa canina, Rosa pulverelanta and Rosa dumalis naturally grown in the Van region were investigated. In 2007, seeds of these species were kept at 25°C warm ...

  11. Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Climate change; regional climate model; global warming; cyclonic disturbances; projections. ... The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the ...

  12. 'Global warming': myth or reality? The actual evolution of the weather dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leroux, Marcel

    2003-07-01

    The 'Global Warming scenario' is a hypothesis derived from theoretical models, asserted but not proven. There are numerous inconsistencies between predictions and actual observed climatic facts. The 'global' thermal curve has no real significance in climatic terms. Climatic change is not global, but regional: for example, in the North Atlantic aerological unit, the Western side is cooling while that of the Northeast is warming. The 1970s exhibit a fundamental climatic switch which is not 'seen' by the models, but is associated with a gradual increase of violent perturbations and irregularity of weather, linked to a change in the general circulation mode (rapid mode). (Author)

  13. Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Linying; Yuan, Xing; Xie, Zhenghui; Wu, Peili; Li, Yaohui

    2016-08-11

    The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as "flash droughts" accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China.

  14. Responses of Winter Wheat Yields to Warming-Mediated Vernalization Variations Across Temperate Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuchen Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Rapid climate warming, with much higher warming rates in winter and spring, could affect the vernalization fulfillment, a critical process for induction of crop reproductive growth and consequent grain filling in temperate winter crops. However, regional observational evidence of the effects of historical warming-mediated vernalization variations on temperate winter crop yields is lacking. Here, we statistically quantified the interannual sensitivity of winter wheat yields to vernalization degree days (VDD during 1975–2009 and its spatial relationship with multi-year mean VDD over temperate Europe (TE, using EUROSTAT crop yield statistics, observed and simulated crop phenology data and gridded daily climate data. Our results revealed a pervasively positive interannual sensitivity of winter wheat yields to variations in VDD (γVDD over TE, with a mean γVDD of 2.8 ± 1.5 kg ha−1 VDD−1. We revealed a significant (p < 0.05 negative exponential relationship between γVDD and multi-year mean VDD for winter wheat across TE, with higher γVDD in winter wheat planting areas with lower multi-year mean VDD. Our findings shed light on potential vulnerability of winter wheat yields to warming-mediated vernalization variations over TE, particularly considering a likely future warmer climate.

  15. Climate change lessons from a warm world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, Harry J.

    2010-01-01

    In the early 1970’s to early 1980’s Soviet climatologists were making comparisons to past intervals of warmth in the geologic record and suggesting that these intervals could be possible analogs for 21st century “greenhouse” conditions. Some saw regional warming as a benefit to the Soviet Union and made comments along the lines of “Set fire to the coal mines!” These sentiments were alarming to some, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) leadership thought they could provide a more quantitative analysis of the data the Soviets were using for the most recent of these warm intervals, the Early Pliocene.

  16. Synoptic Conditions Generating Heat Waves and Warm Spells in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucian Sfîcă

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Heat waves and warm spells are extreme meteorological events that generate a significant number of casualties in temperate regions, as well as outside of temperate regions. For the purpose of this paper, heat waves and warm spells were identified based on daily maximum temperatures recorded at 27 weather stations located in Romania over a 55-year period (1961–2015. The intensity threshold was the 90th percentile, and the length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. We analyzed 111 heat wave and warm spell events totaling 423 days. The classification of synoptic conditions was based on daily reanalysis at three geopotential levels and on the online version of a backward trajectories model. The main findings are that there are two major types of genetic conditions. These were identified as: (i radiative heat waves and warm spells (type A generated by warming the air mass due to high amounts of radiation which was found dominant in warm season; and (ii advective heat waves and warm spells (type B generated mainly by warm air mass advection which prevails in winter and transition seasons. These major types consist of two and three sub-types, respectively. The results could become a useful tool for weather forecasters in order to better predict the occurrence of heat waves and warm spells.

  17. Inconsistent Subsurface and Deeper Ocean Warming Signals During Recent Global Warming and Hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Hua; Wu, Xiangbai; Lu, Wenfang; Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

    2017-10-01

    Ocean heat content (OHC) evolutions calculated from the data sets (WOA, MyOcean, ORAS4, and SODA) were examined at different depth ranges in this study. According to the OHC changes, the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO, 300-2000 m) heat content rapidly increased over the world's ocean basins during 1998-2013, indicating significant warming in the SDO during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Almost all the ocean basins warmed up, but with various contributions to the global SDO warming tied to the recent hiatus. The role of the Indian Ocean is particularly important as it has accounted for about 30% of global SDO heat uptake during the hiatus. The combined use of multiple data sets can reveal inconsistencies in SDO warming analysis results, and improve our understanding of the role of the SDO in the recent hiatus. The heat uptake in global SDO during the hiatus was about 2.37, 5.44, 3.75, and 2.44 × 1022 joules with trends of 0.40, 0.70, 0.77, and 0.48 W m-2 according to WOA, MyOcean, ORAS4, and SODA respectively, presenting obviously inconsistent SDO warming signals. MyOcean shows OHC overestimates in different ocean basins, while ORAS4 presents more reliable SDO OHC analysis. In general, the global SDO has sequestered a significant amount of heat—about 3.50 × 1022 joules with trends of 0.59 W m-2 on average among the four data sets—during the recent hiatus, demonstrating widespread and significant warming signals in the global SDO. There remain substantial uncertainties and discrepancies, however (especially in the PO and SO), in the available SDO warming information due to insufficient subsurface observation coverage and variations in the data set generation techniques used among different researchers.

  18. Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert

    2007-10-01

    Establishing what caused Earth’s largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by ~2°C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface-ocean warming by ~1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.

  19. Impact assessment of human diet changes with rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen and phosphorus flows--a case study of the megacity Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chen; Zou, Chunjing; Wang, Qinxue; Hayashi, Yoshitsugu; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2014-02-01

    Regional material flows are strongly influenced by human diets. To diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of human diet changes with rapid urbanization on the regional nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows were quantitatively evaluated. A survey of day-to-day activities was conducted of 450 individuals surveyed (adults over 18 years old) in three representative areas (the central district, the new district, and the suburban/rural areas) of Shanghai, a megacity which has attracted worldwide attention. The lifestyle (eating habits, domestic sanitation, drainage facilities, etc.) pattern was determined and the potential N and P loads from human diets on the environment were calculated. The daily potential nitrogen and phosphorus loads from human diets was 19.36 g-N, 1.80 g-P in the central district, 16.48 g-N, 1.52 g-P in the new district, and 13.04 g-N, 1.20 g-P in the suburban/rural areas of Shanghai. Respondents in all three areas, especially those in the suburban/rural areas reported a preference for increasing the intake of animal-derived as well as processed foods, which means that the potential N and P load from human diets to the environment will increase further. In addition, most respondents consider industrial wastewater discharge as the main cause of eutrophication of waterbodies, though in recent years water pollution caused by domestic wastewater has increased rapidly, but this has received much less attention. Environment-friendly eating habits and improvements in the environmental awareness will be required.

  20. Experimental warming alters migratory caribou forage quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamin, Tara J; Côté, Steeve D; Tremblay, Jean-Pierre; Grogan, Paul

    2017-10-01

    Global declines in caribou and reindeer (Rangifer) populations have drawn attention to the myriad of stressors that these Arctic and boreal forest herbivores currently face. Arctic warming has resulted in increased tundra shrub growth and therefore Rangifer forage quantity. However, its effects on forage quality have not yet been addressed although they may be critical to Rangifer body condition and fecundity. We investigated the impact of 8 yrs of summer warming on the quality of forage available to the Bathurst caribou herd using experimental greenhouses (n = 5) located in mesic birch hummock tundra in the central Canadian Low Arctic. Leaf forage quality and digestibility characteristics associated with nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), phenolics, and fiber were measured on the deciduous shrub Betula glandulosa (an important Rangifer diet component) at six time points through the growing season, and on five other very common vascular plant and lichen species in late summer. Experimental warming reduced B. glandulosa leaf nitrogen concentrations by ~10% in both late June and mid-July, but not afterwards. It also reduced late summer forage quality of the graminoid Eriophorum vaginatum by increasing phenolic concentrations 38%. Warming had mixed effects on forage quality of the lichen Cetraria cucullata in that it increased nutrient concentrations and tended to decrease fiber contents, but it also increased phenolics. Altogether, these warming-induced changes in forage quality over the growing season, and response differences among species, highlight the importance of Rangifer adaptability in diet selection. Furthermore, the early season reduction in B. glandulosa nitrogen content is a particular concern given the importance of this time for calf growth. Overall, our demonstration of the potential for significant warming impacts on forage quality at critical times for these animals underscores the importance of effective Rangifer range conservation to ensure

  1. Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

    2017-03-29

    Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  2. Rapid proteasomal degradation of posttranscriptional regulators of the TIS11/tristetraprolin family is induced by an intrinsically unstructured region independently of ubiquitination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngoc, Long Vo; Wauquier, Corinne; Soin, Romuald; Bousbata, Sabrina; Twyffels, Laure; Kruys, Véronique; Gueydan, Cyril

    2014-12-01

    The TIS11/tristetraprolin (TTP) CCCH tandem zinc finger proteins are major effectors in the destabilization of mRNAs bearing AU-rich elements (ARE) in their 3' untranslated regions. In this report, we demonstrate that the Drosophila melanogaster dTIS11 protein is short-lived due to its rapid ubiquitin-independent degradation by the proteasome. Our data indicate that this mechanism is tightly associated with the intrinsically unstructured, disordered N- and C-terminal domains of the protein. Furthermore, we show that TTP, the mammalian TIS11/TTP protein prototype, shares the same three-dimensional characteristics and is degraded by the same proteolytic pathway as dTIS11, thereby indicating that this mechanism has been conserved across evolution. Finally, we observed a phosphorylation-dependent inhibition of dTIS11 and TTP degradation by the proteasome in vitro, raising the possibility that such modifications directly affect proteasomal recognition for these proteins. As a group, RNA-binding proteins (RNA-BPs) have been described as enriched in intrinsically disordered regions, thus raising the possibility that the mechanism that we uncovered for TIS11/TTP turnover is widespread among other RNA-BPs. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  3. Warm-temperate deciduous forests around the Northern Hemisphere

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Box E.O; Fujiwara K

    2015-01-01

    Warm-temperate deciduous forests are "southern", mainly oak-dominated deciduous forests, as found over the warmer southern parts of the temperate deciduous forest regions of East Asia, Europe and eastern North America...

  4. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  5. Comparison of Fluoride Content in Drinking Water and Prevalence of Dental Fluorosis in 6 - 12-Year-Old Students in Mariwan (a Cold Region and Behbahan (a Warm Region during the 2013 - 2014 Educational Year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezvan Rafatjou

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Fluoride plays an important role in preventing dental caries. Low fluoride concentrations cannot prevent dental caries, but ingestion of very high concentrations of fluoride during enamel development and maturation could lead to fluorosis. Fluoridation of drinking water is the most effective and inexpensive method for preventing caries. The mandated concentration of fluoride incorporated into drinking water should consider the mean temperature of each region. Objectives The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prevalence of fluorosis in children aged 6 - 12 in Mariwan and Behbahan and determine the fluoride content of drinking water in these two towns. Materials and Methods In the present descriptive and cross-sectional study, 13 water samples were taken from homes in Behbahan, 1 sample from the town’s water reservoir, 10 samples from homes in Mariwan (5 samples for each reservoir and 1 sample each from the town’s 2 reservoirs. The 26 samples (23 from homes and 3 from reservoirs were taken in polyethylene containers. The SPANDS colorimetric technique was used to determine fluoride content. Homes that used home-based water purification systems were excluded from the study. In addition, 128 students (62 girls and 66 boys in Behbahan and 90 students in Mariwan were randomly selected. Dean’s index was used to determine dental fluorosis. The mean yearly temperatures of the two towns were obtained from the metrological bureaus of the two towns. Results The means fluoride content of water in Behbahan’s reservoir and Mariwan’s reservoirs 1 and 2 were 0.7, 0.24 and 0.036 ppm, respectively. The mean fluoride content of Behbahan’s home waterlines and in the relevant home waterlines of reservoirs 1 and 2 in Mariwan were 0.67, 0.218, and 0.054 ppm, respectively. There were no significant differences between the relevant reservoirs. The prevalence of fluorosis in Behbahan was as follows: 84.4% healthy, 10.9% questionable, 1

  6. Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

    2018-02-01

    To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year‑1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year‑1) more than daytime cooling (‑0.007 °C year‑1) during the dry season from 1961–2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

  7. The recent warming trend in North Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    2017-06-01

    The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982-2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900-1970 average of -28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

  8. Humid heat waves at different warming levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sterl, Andreas

    2017-08-07

    The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming. We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5° and 2° global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era). The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55 °C. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4° global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

  9. Global Warming And Meltwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bratu, S.

    2012-04-01

    In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of

  10. Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone-elevation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.

  11. Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone-elevation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanqiang Wei

    Full Text Available Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1 The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2 Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3 The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.

  12. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

  13. Gradual Warming in the North Atlantic during D-O Events Synchronous with Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere Warmings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, T. L.; Thomsen, E.; Moros, M.

    2016-12-01

    The climate of the last glacial period was interrupted by about 25 rapid oscillations, called Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In the Greenland ice cores, the events consist of an abrupt warming to warm interstadial conditions followed by a more gradual return to cold stadial conditions. Similar abrupt warmings are seen in paleoceanographic proxies from the Nordic seas, and the shifts are apparently linked to perturbations in the ocean thermohaline circulation. The events also occur in the Antarctic ice cores, but the amplitudes here are smaller and the warmings are more gradual and initiated earlier than in the north. The out-of-phase relationship between the north and south is often referred to as the `Bipolar seesaw'. We have studied core SO2 from the Reykjanes Ridge in the central northernmost Atlantic. The results are compared with previously published records from the North Atlantic and correlated with the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. By means of transfer function analysis and δ18O values from planktic and benthic foraminifera we show that surface and bottom water temperatures in SO2 increased gradually during the Greenland stadials to a maximum at the beginning of the interstadials. The warmings in SO2 follow the timing and gradual warmings observed in the Antarctic ice cores and they are clearly out of phase with the abrupt, delayed warmings over Greenland. Apparently, the surface and intermediate water over most of the Atlantic from the Antarctica to the Scotland-Greenland Ridge warmed and pressed northward at a time when the atmospheric temperatures over Greenland were at minimum and the convection in the Nordic seas stopped. The system appears to function more as a `push-and-pull' system than as a seesaw with a `pull' during the warm interstadials, when convection in the Nordic seas was active and a `push' during the cold stadials, when warm water from the south-central Atlantic pushed northward gradually warming the northernmost Atlantic and Nordic

  14. Testing Paradigms of Ecosystem Change under Climate Warming in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Constable, Andrew; Wotherspoon, Simon; Raymond, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Antarctic marine ecosystems have undergone significant changes as a result of human activities in the past and are now responding in varied and often complicated ways to climate change impacts. Recent years have seen the emergence of large-scale mechanistic explanations–or “paradigms of change”–that attempt to synthesize our understanding of past and current changes. In many cases, these paradigms are based on observations that are spatially and temporally patchy. The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), one of Earth’s most rapidly changing regions, has been an area of particular research focus. A recently proposed mechanistic explanation for observed changes in the WAP region relates changes in penguin populations to variability in krill biomass and regional warming. While this scheme is attractive for its simplicity and chronology, it may not account for complex spatio-temporal processes that drive ecosystem dynamics in the region. It might also be difficult to apply to other Antarctic regions that are experiencing some, though not all, of the changes documented for the WAP. We use qualitative network models of differing levels of complexity to test paradigms of change for the WAP ecosystem. Importantly, our approach captures the emergent effects of feedback processes in complex ecological networks and provides a means to identify and incorporate uncertain linkages between network elements. Our findings highlight key areas of uncertainty in the drivers of documented trends, and suggest that a greater level of model complexity is needed in devising explanations for ecosystem change in the Southern Ocean. We suggest that our network approach to evaluating a recent and widely cited paradigm of change for the Antarctic region could be broadly applied in hypothesis testing for other regions and research fields. PMID:23405116

  15. Rapid heating of matter using high power lasers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Woosuk [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-04-08

    This slide presentation describes motivation (uniform and rapid heating of a target, opportunity to study warm dense matter, study of nuclear fusion reactions), rapid heating of matter with intense laser-driven ion beams, visualization of the expanding warm dense gold and diamond, and nuclear fusion experiments using high power lasers (direct heating of deuterium spheres (radius ~ 10nm) with an intense laser pulse.

  16. Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

    1994-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective

  17. Bi-directional dideoxy fingerprinting (Bi-ddF): a rapid method for quantitative detection of mutations in genomic regions of 300-600 bp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q; Feng, J; Sommer, S S

    1996-01-01

    There is a great need for rapid screening methods that detect essentially all mutations. Dideoxy fingerprinting (ddF) is a highly sensitive screening method that is performed by electrophoresing one lane of a Sanger dideoxy termination reaction through a nondenaturing gel. Mutations may produce an extra segment or eliminate a segment from the termination products (informative dideoxy component). In addition, mutations can be detected by the altered mobility of one or more termination segments (informative SSCP component). To screen larger segments with virtually 100% sensitivity, bi-directional ddF (Bi-ddF) was developed. Bi-ddF is a 'second generation ddF' in which the dideoxy termination reaction is performed simultaneously with two opposing primers. Bi-ddF has two important advantages over ddF: (i) the dideoxy component can detect 10 of the 12 types of possible single-base substitutions; and (ii) the SSCP component is enhanced because alterations of mobility can be detected in either the downstream or upstream direction. As a result, Bi-ddF can screen larger regions of genomic DNA with virtually 100% sensitivity. Bi-ddF detected 100% of 28 single-base substitutions in a 494 bp segment containing exons B and C of the human factor IX gene and 100% of 42 single-base substitutions and one microdeletion present in a 577 bp region containing exon H. In a blinded analysis in which 39 wildtype samples were randomly mixed with 51 mutant samples, all mutations were detected with no false positives. Bi-ddF requires essentially the same effort as ddF, yet twofold more DNA sequence can be screened reliably per unit effort.

  18. A large proportion of P. falciparum isolates in the Amazon region of Peru lack pfhrp2 and pfhrp3: implications for malaria rapid diagnostic tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamboa, Dionicia; Ho, Mei-Fong; Bendezu, Jorge; Torres, Katherine; Chiodini, Peter L; Barnwell, John W; Incardona, Sandra; Perkins, Mark; Bell, David; McCarthy, James; Cheng, Qin

    2010-01-25

    Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) offer significant potential to improve the diagnosis of malaria, and are playing an increasing role in malaria case management, control and elimination. Peru, along with other South American countries, is moving to introduce malaria RDTs as components of malaria control programmes supported by the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and malaria. The selection of the most suitable malaria RDTs is critical to the success of the programmes. Eight of nine microscopy positive P. falciparum samples collected in Iquitos, Peru tested negative or weak positive using HRP2-detecting RDTs. These samples were tested for the presence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 and their flanking genes by PCR, as well as the presence of HRP proteins by ELISA. To investigate for geographic extent of HRP-deleted parasites and their temporal occurrence a retrospective study was undertaken on 148 microscopy positive P. falciparum samples collected in different areas of the Amazon region of Peru. Eight of the nine isolates lacked the pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 genes and one or both flanking genes, and the absence of HRP was confirmed by ELISA. The retrospective study showed that 61 (41%) and 103 (70%) of the 148 samples lacked the pfhrp2 or pfhrp3 genes respectively, with 32 (21.6%) samples lacking both hrp genes. This is the first documentation of P. falciparum field isolates lacking pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3. The high frequency and wide distribution of different parasites lacking pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 in widely dispersed areas in the Peruvian Amazon implies that malaria RDTs targeting HRP2 will fail to detect a high proportion of P. falciparum in malaria-endemic areas of Peru and should not be used. RDTs detecting parasite LDH or aldolase and quality microscopy should be use for malaria diagnosis in this region. There is an urgent need for investigation of the abundance and geographic distribution of these parasites in Peru and neighbouring countries.

  19. Perturbations in warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Oliveira, H. P.; Joras, S. E.

    2001-09-15

    Warm inflation is an interesting possibility to describe the early universe, whose basic feature is the absence, at least in principle, of a preheating or reheating phase. Here we analyze the dynamics of warm inflation generalizing the usual slow-roll parameters that are useful for characterizing the inflationary phase. We study the evolution of entropy and adiabatic perturbations, where the main result is that for a very small amount of dissipation the entropy perturbations can be neglected and the purely adiabatic perturbations will be responsible for the primordial spectrum of inhomogeneities. Taking into account the Cosmic Background Explorer Differential Microwave Radiometer data of the cosmic microwave background anisotropy as well as the fact that the interval of inflation for which the scales of astrophysical interest cross outside the Hubble radius is about 50 e-folds before the end of inflation, we could estimate the magnitude of the dissipation term. It is also possible to show that at the end of inflation the universe is hot enough to provide a smooth transition to the radiation era.

  20. Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate

    OpenAIRE

    De Cian, Enrica; Wing, Ian Sue

    2016-01-01

    This paper combines an econometric analysis of the response of energy demand to temperature and humidity exposure with future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development to characterize climate impacts on energy demand at different spatial scales. Globally, future climate change is expected to have a moderate impact on energy demand, in the order of 6-11%, depending on the degree of warming, because of compensating effects across regions, fuels, and sectors. Climate-induced chan...

  1. Uncertainty of soil reflectance retrieval from SPOT and RapidEye multispectral satellite images using a per-pixel bootstrapped empirical line atmospheric correction over an agricultural region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaudour, E.; Gilliot, J. M.; Bel, L.; Bréchet, L.; Hamiache, J.; Hadjar, D.; Lemonnier, Y.

    2014-02-01

    Many authors have reported the use of empirical line regression between field target sites and image pixels in order to perform atmospheric correction of multispectral images. However few studies were dedicated to the specific reflectance retrieval for cultivated bare soils from multispectral satellite images, from a large number (≥15) of bare field targets spread over a region. Even fewer were oriented towards additional field targets for validation and uncertainty assessment of reflectance error. This study aimed at assessing ELM validation accuracy and uncertainty for predicting topsoil reflectance over a wide area (221 km2) with contrasting soils and tillage practices using a set of six multispectral images at very high (supermode SPOT5, 2.5 m), high (RapidEye, 6.5 m) and medium (SPOT4, 20 m) spatial resolutions. For each image and each spectral band, linear regression (LR) models were constructed through a series of 1000 bootstrap datasets of training/validation samples generated amongst a total of about 30 field sites used as targets, the reflectance measurements of which were made between -6 days/+7 days around acquisition date. The achieved models had an average coefficient of variation of validation errors of ∼14%, which indicates that the composition of training field sites does influence performance results of ELM. However, according to median LR-models, our approach mostly resulted in accurate predictions with low standard errors of estimation around 1-2% reflectance, validation errors of 2-3% reflectance, low validation bias (March: in agricultural areas, images programmed during periods when most field tillage operations have resulted in smooth seedbed conditions (April in this study) are in favour of better performances of soil reflectance prediction. Nevertheless, directional effects appear to mainly and moderately affect the global performance of near-infrared and SWIR bands-models except for oblique viewing images (viewing angle > |20°|). The

  2. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2017-05-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  3. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Xiumin Yan; Kehong Wang; Lihong Song; Xuefeng Wang; Donghui Wu

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  4. Competent and Warm?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Karolina; Rakić, Tamara; Steffens, Melanie C

    2017-01-01

    Most research on ethnicity has focused on visual cues. However, accents are strong social cues that can match or contradict visual cues. We examined understudied reactions to people whose one cue suggests one ethnicity, whereas the other cue contradicts it. In an experiment conducted in Germany, job candidates spoke with an accent either congruent or incongruent with their (German or Turkish) appearance. Based on ethnolinguistic identity theory, we predicted that accents would be strong cues for categorization and evaluation. Based on expectancy violations theory we expected that incongruent targets would be evaluated more extremely than congruent targets. Both predictions were confirmed: accents strongly influenced perceptions and Turkish-looking German-accented targets were perceived as most competent of all targets (and additionally most warm). The findings show that bringing together visual and auditory information yields a more complete picture of the processes underlying impression formation.

  5. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  6. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  7. Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peterson A Townsend

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species. Methods I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key Anopheles gambiae vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions. Results For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa. Conclusion Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common.

  8. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisz, Mary; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating...... to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings...

  9. Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

    1991-01-01

    The accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is expected to warm the earth's climate at an unprecedented rate (Ramanathan 1988, Schneider 1989). If the climate models are correct, within 100 years the earth will not only be warmer than it has been during the past million years, but the change will have occurred more rapidly than any on record. Many profound changes in the earth's environment are expected, including rising sea level, increasing aridity in continental interiors, and melting permafrost. Ecosystems are expected to respond variously to a rapidly changing climate. Tree ranges in eastern North American are expected to shift northward, and seed dispersal may not be adequate to maintain current diversity (Cohn 1989, Johnson and Webb 1989). In coastal wetlands, rising sea level from melting icecaps and thermal expansion could flood salt-grass marshes and generally reduce the size and productivity of the intertidal zone (Peters and Darling 1985). As yet, little attention has been given to the possible effects of climatic warming on inland prairie wetland ecosystems. These wetlands, located in the glaciated portion of the North American Great Plains (Figure 1), constitute the single most important breeding area for waterfowl on this continent (Hubbard 1988). This region annually produces 50-80% of the continent's total duck production (Batt et al. 1989). These marshes also support a variety of other wildlife, including many species of nongame birds, muskrat, and mink (Kantrud et al. 1989a). Prairie wetlands are relatively shallow, water-holding depressions that vary in size, water permanence, and water chemistry. Permanence types include temporary ponds (typically holding water for a few weeks in the springs), seasonal ponds (holding water from spring until early summer), semipermanent ponds (holding water throughout the growing season during most years), and large permanent lakes (Stewart and Kantrud 1971). Refilling usually occurs in spring from

  10. Committed warming inferred from observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert

    2017-09-01

    Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.

  11. Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

  12. Winners and losers in a world with global warming: Noncooperation, altruism, and social welfare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caplan, A.J. [Weber State Univ., Ogden, UT (United States). Dept. of Economics; Ellis, C.J.; Silva, E.C.D. [Univ. of Oregon, Eugene, OR (United States). Dept. of Economics

    1999-05-01

    In this paper, global warming is an asymmetric transboundary externality which benefits some countries or regions and harms others. Few environmental problems have captured the public`s imagination as much and attracted as much scrutiny as global warming. The general perception is that global warming is a net social bad, and that across-the-board abatement of greenhouse gas emissions is therefore desirable. Despite many interesting academic contributions, not all of the basic economics of this phenomenon have been fully worked out. The authors use a simple two-country model to analyze the effects of global warming on resource allocations, the global-warming stock, and national and global welfare.

  13. Promoting the health of Europeans in a rapidly changing world: a historical study of the implementation of World Health Organisation policies by the Nursing and Midwifery Unit, European Regional Office, 1970-2003

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallett, Christine; Wagner, Lis

    2011-01-01

    HALLETT C and WAGNER L. Nursing Inquiry 2011; 18: 359-368 Promoting the health of Europeans in a rapidly changing world: a historical study of the implementation of World Health Organisation policies by the Nursing and Midwifery Unit, European Regional Office, 1970-2003 The World Health Organisat......HALLETT C and WAGNER L. Nursing Inquiry 2011; 18: 359-368 Promoting the health of Europeans in a rapidly changing world: a historical study of the implementation of World Health Organisation policies by the Nursing and Midwifery Unit, European Regional Office, 1970-2003 The World Health...... Organisation (WHO) was inaugurated in 1948. Formed in a period of post-war devastation, WHO aimed to develop and meet goals that would rebuild the health of shattered populations. The historical study reported here examined the work of the Nursing and Midwifery Unit (NMU) of WHO's European Regional Office...

  14. Performance of three multi-species rapid diagnostic tests for diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadeta Damtew

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria transmission in Ethiopia is unstable and variable, caused by both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. The Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH is scaling up parasitological diagnosis of malaria at all levels of the health system; at peripheral health facilities this will be through use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs. The present study compared three RDT products to provide the FMoH with evidence to guide appropriate product selection. Methods Performance of three multi-species (pf-HRP2/pan-pLDH and pf-HRP2/aldolase RDTs (CareStart®, ParaScreen® and ICT Combo® was compared with 'gold standard' microscopy at three health centres in Jimma zone, Oromia Regional State. Ease of RDT use by health extension workers was assessed at community health posts. RDT heat stability was tested in a controlled laboratory setting according to WHO procedures. Results A total of 2,383 patients with suspected malaria were enrolled between May and July 2009, 23.2% of whom were found to be infected with Plasmodium parasites by microscopy. All three RDTs were equally sensitive in detecting P. falciparum or mixed infection: 85.6% (95% confidence interval 81.2-89.4. RDT specificity was similar for detection of P. falciparum or mixed infection at around 92%. For detecting P. vivax infection, all three RDTs had similar sensitivity in the range of 82.5 to 85.0%. CareStart had higher specificity in detecting P. vivax (97.2% than both ParaScreen and ICT Combo (p Conclusions CareStart appeared to be the most appropriate option for use at health posts in Ethiopia, considering the combination of quantitative performance, ease of use and heat stability. When new products become available, the choice of multi-species RDT for Ethiopia should be regularly re-evaluated, as it would be desirable to identify a test with higher sensitivity than the ones evaluated here.

  15. Evaluation of the SAFRAN-ISBA-RAPID hydrometeorological chain on a mountainous catchment in a semi-arid region. Case of the Rheraya (Marrakech, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szczypta, Camille; Gascoin, Simon; Habets, Florence; Saaidi, Amina; Berjamy, Brahim; Marchane, Ahmed; Boulet, Gilles; Hanich, Lahoucine; Jarlan, Lionel

    2015-04-01

    The water content of snow pack is an important resource for many watershed in semi-arid areas where downstream plains are dominated by irrigated agriculture. As part of the ANR Amethyst, this work is to develop, adapt and evaluate a hydro-meteorological forecasting chain for quantifying streamflows at the outlet of a mountainous watershed (Rheraya wadi, Marrakech region, Morocco), a pilot basin instrumented since 2003 as part of SudMed project. Two sets of atmospheric forcing were used: (1) The first was generated by spatializing meteorological data observed on 6 stations (Asni, Aremdt, Tachedert, Oukaimeden, Imskerbour and Neltner) using the semi-physical module Micromet (Liston and Elder, 2006) on the hydrological period September 2003 - August 2012; (2) the second is provided by the SAFRAN re-analysis, implemented by the Metoffice of Morocco (Casablanca, Morocco), during the period August 2004 - July 2008. These two sets were then used as inputs for the ISBA surface model, within the modeling platform SURFEX. Finally, runoff and drainage simulations derived from ISBA were forced into the hydrological model RAPID to predict streamflows. The flows predictions and the snow covered area (SCA) were compared respectively to the observations available for the 2003-2009 period and to the daily MODIS products of SCA. Despite time unsystematic lags and low biases on flow values, the initial results are encouraging due to topographical and hydro-complexity of the studied area. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the SCA for the "Micromet" run and to over-estimate for the "Safran" run, SCA is well reproduced with a determination coefficient of r²=0.76 and r²=0.79, respectively. Given the complex topography of the basin, a sensitivity analysis to the size of the grid point (from 8 km to 250 m) was conducted. If the different simulated series of SCA are close from a resolution to another, streamflows simulations are, by contrast, highly sensitive to the resolution

  16. Seasonal performance of a malaria rapid diagnosis test at community health clinics in a malaria-hyperendemic region of Burkina Faso

    OpenAIRE

    Diarra Amidou; Nébié Issa; Tiono Alfred; Sanon Souleymane; Soulama Issiaka; Ouédraogo Alphonse; Gansané Adama; Yaro Jean B; Ouédraogo Espérance; Traoré Alfred S; Sirima Sodiomon B

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Backgound Treatment of confirmed malaria patients with Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) at remote areas is the goal of many anti-malaria programs. Introduction of effective and affordable malaria Rapid Diagnosis Test (RDT) in remote areas could be an alternative tool for malaria case management. This study aimed to assess performance of the OptiMAL dipstick for rapid malaria diagnosis in children under five. Methods Malaria symptomatic and asymptomatic children were recrui...

  17. Global warming and nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, L., LLNL

    1998-07-10

    -fold reduction might be attained. Even the first such halving of carbon intensivity of stationary-source energy production world-wide might permit continued slow power-demand growth in the highly developed countries and rapid development of the other 80% of the world, both without active governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage - while also stabilizing carbon input-rates into the Earth`s atmosphere. The second two-fold reduction might obviate most global warming concerns.

  18. Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin

    2017-09-01

    Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921-2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998-2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the "hiatus" period 1998-2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951-2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

  19. Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin

    2017-01-01

    Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921–2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998–2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the “hiatus” period 1998–2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951–2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

  20. Trends in the Indian Ocean Climatology due to anthropogenic induced global warming

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Meyer, AA

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available clearly show that due to global warming the South West Indian Ocean Climatology has been changing and that this changing trend will continue into the future as global warming continues. The impacts of regional oceanic climate change on the regions coastal...

  1. Peri-operative warming devices: performance and clinical application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, M; Ford, J; Harper, M

    2014-06-01

    Since the adverse consequences of accidental peri-operative hypothermia have been recognised, there has been a rapid expansion in the development of new warming equipment designed to prevent it. This is a review of peri-operative warming devices and a critique of the evidence assessing their performance. Forced-air warming is a common and extensively tested warming modality that outperforms passive insulation and water mattresses, and is at least as effective as resistive heating. More recently developed devices include circulating water garments, which have shown promising results due to their ability to cover large surface areas, and negative pressure devices aimed at improving subcutaneous perfusion for warming. We also discuss the challenge of fluid warming, looking particularly at how devices' performance varies according to flow rate. Our ultimate aim is to provide a guide through the bewildering array of devices on the market so that clinicians can make informed and accurate choices for their particular hospital environment. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  2. Current hiatus of global warming tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2014-05-01

    Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Two schools of idea exist regarding what causes this hiatus in global warming: one suggests a slowdown in radiative forcing due to the stratospheric water vapour, the rapid increase of aerosols, and the solar minimum around 2009, while the other considers the hiatus as part of internal variability, especially a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Pacific. We present a method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific (8.2% of Earth's surface) in a coupled climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with a correlation coefficient of 0.97 for 1970-2012, a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming from the 1970s to the late 1990s. Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, weakening of Aleutian Low, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and prolonged drought in the southern US. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

  3. Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Robert M.; Cohen, Lana; Petty, Alek A.; Boisvert, Linette N.; Rinke, Annette; Hudson, Stephen R.; Nicolaus, Marcel; Granskog, Mats A.

    2017-07-01

    Near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed in situ over sea ice in the central Arctic during the last three winter seasons. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Temperatures exceeding -5°C were observed during >30% of winters from 1954 to 2010 by North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). There is a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryDuring the last three winter seasons, extreme warming events were observed over sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Each of these warming events were associated with temperatures close to or above 0°C, which lasted for between 1 and 3 days. Typically temperatures in the Arctic at this time of year are below -30°C. Here we study past temperature observations in the Arctic to investigate how common winter warming events are. We use time temperature observations from expeditions such as Fram (1893-1896) and manned Soviet North Pole drifting ice stations from 1937 to 1991. These historic temperature records show that winter warming events have been observed over most of the Arctic Ocean. Despite a thin network of observation sites, winter time temperatures above -5°C were directly observed approximately once every 3 years in the central Arctic Ocean between 1954 and 2010. Winter warming events are associated with storm systems originating in either the Atlantic or Pacific

  4. Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-09-10

    Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past decades, leading to decreased sea ice, permafrost thaw, and an advancement of spring phenology. The number of birds on the ACP also is changing, marked by increased populations of the four species of geese that nest in the region. The Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens) is the most rapidly increasing of these species. USGS CAE research is quantifying these changes and their implications for management agencies.

  5. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  6. Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, G. T.

    2006-12-01

    The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of

  7. Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H

    2016-01-01

    , spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation...... of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold...... considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic...

  8. Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F.; Dunn, Robert Roberdeau

    2017-01-01

    Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature...... in summer average temperature by 1.7 to 3.4 °C within each city. Arthropod responses to warming within each city were characterized as Poisson regression coefficients describing change in abundance per °C for each family. Family responses in the two mid latitude cities were heterogeneous, including...... declined with warming, perhaps due to habitat loss that was correlated with warming in this city. With the exception of Queens, patterns of family responses to warming were consistent with predictions based on known latitudinal patterns in arthropod physiology relative to regional climate. Heterogeneous...

  9. Warming Climate and Changing Societies - a Challenge or an Opportunity for Reindeer Herding?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Käyhkö, J.; Horstkotte, T.; Kivinen, S.; Vehmas, J.; Oksanen, L.; Forbes, B. C.; Johansen, B.; Jepsen, J. U.; Markkola, A.; Pulliainen, J.; Olofsson, J.; Oksanen, T.; Utsi, T. A.; Korpimäki, E.; Menard, C.; Ericson, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean, influencing dramatically the northern ecosystems. Simultaneously, our societies transform towards urbanized, highly educated, service-based culture, where a decreasing population will gain its livelihood from primary production. We study various ecosystem interactions in a changing climate and integrate these with reindeer husbandry and the indigenous Sámi culture dependent on it1. Potential climate impacts include the transformation of arctic-alpine tundra to dense scrubland with conceivable consequences to reindeer husbandry, but also global warming due to decreasing albedo. The social-ecological system (SES) of reindeer husbandry includes administrative and ecological processes that do not always correspond (Figure 1). Consequently, management priorities and administration may conflict with local social and ecological processes, bringing about risks of environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and defeat of traditional livelihoods. We hypothesize the plausibility to support the indigenous reindeer herding livelihood against rapid external changes by utilizing the migratory reindeer grazing system of the Sámi as a management tool for sustaining the high-albedo tundra and mitigating global warming. Our first-of-a-kind satellite-based high resolution vegetation map covering Northern Fennoscandia allows detailed management plans. Our ecological research demonstrates the important role of herbivory on arctic vegetation communities. Interactive workshops with reindeer herders offer indigenous knowledge of state and changes of the ecosystems, and reflect the threats and expectations of the herders. We are currently building models of the complex social-ecological system of Northern Fennoscandia and will report the first findings of the exercise. 1 www.ncoetundra.utu.fi Figure 1. The scales of administrative and ecological processes do not always coincide. This may bring about challenges in managing

  10. Soil warming opens the nitrogen cycle at the alpine treeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawes, Melissa A; Schleppi, Patrick; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Rixen, Christian; Hagedorn, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming may alter ecosystem nitrogen (N) cycling by accelerating N transformations in the soil, and changes may be especially pronounced in cold regions characterized by N-poor ecosystems. We investigated N dynamics across the plant-soil continuum during 6 years of experimental soil warming (2007-2012; +4 °C) at a Swiss high-elevation treeline site (Stillberg, Davos; 2180 m a.s.l.) featuring Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata. In the soil, we observed considerable increases in the NH4+ pool size in the first years of warming (by >50%), but this effect declined over time. In contrast, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations in soil solutions from the organic layer increased under warming, especially in later years (maximum of +45% in 2012), suggesting enhanced DON leaching from the main rooting zone. Throughout the experimental period, foliar N concentrations showed species-specific but small warming effects, whereas δ15 N values showed a sustained increase in warmed plots that was consistent for all species analysed. The estimated total plant N pool size at the end of the study was greater (+17%) in warmed plots with Pinus but not in those containing Larix, with responses driven by trees. Irrespective of plot tree species identity, warming led to an enhanced N pool size of Vaccinium dwarf shrubs, no change in that of Empetrum hermaphroditum (dwarf shrub) and forbs, and a reduction in that of grasses, nonvascular plants, and fine roots. In combination, higher foliar δ15 N values and the transient response in soil inorganic N indicate a persistent increase in plant-available N and greater cumulative plant N uptake in warmer soils. Overall, greater N availability and increased DON concentrations suggest an opening of the N cycle with global warming, which might contribute to growth stimulation of some plant species while simultaneously leading to greater N losses from treeline ecosystems and possibly other cold biomes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons

  11. Global warming and coral reefs

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Wafar, M.V.M.

    Ever increasing global warming trend is predicted to cause within the next 100 years an accelerated sea level rise, increase in sea surface temparature and enhanced ultraviolet radiation to a significant enough extent to affect drastically...

  12. Activation of Sahelian monsoon under future warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall variability in the Sahel has been affecting the lives of millions through devastating droughts, such as in the 1970s and 80s, but also destructive rain and flood events. Future climate change is likely to alter rainfall patterns, but model projections for the central Sahel diverge significantly, with climate models simulating anything between a slight drying and a substantial wetting trend. Here we analyze 30 coupled global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 archive. We identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40% to 300% over the 21st century, under the RCP8.5 concentration pathway. The same models also outperform the rest of the ensemble in reproducing the magnitude of the 1970s/80s drought. The magnitude and seasonality of the projected future rainfall change, together with a concurrent increase in near-surface wind speed, indicate a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. We further find that Sahel rainfall does not increase linearly with rising global temperatures; it is insensitive to moderate warming but then abruptly intensifies beyond a certain temperature. This non-linearity is even more pronounced when instead of global warming, sea surface temperature change in the tropical Atlantic moisture source region is considered. We propose an explanation for this behavior based on a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, and suggest that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under climate change can trigger the sudden activation of a continental monsoon in the Sahel region, which reaches further inland than the present-day, predominantly coastal West African monsoon. Such an abrupt regime change in response to gradual forcing would be consistent with paleoclimatic records from the Sahel region. More detailed comparison between the model simulations that exhibit this sudden rainfall increase under future warming and those that do not may help to verify this hypothesis.

  13. Media narratives of global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meisner, M. [Syracuse Univ., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    2000-06-01

    The way in which the North American print media are representing global warming was the focus of this paper. It was suggested that the way in which the media presents the issue and proposed responses to it, will influence how the public and decision-makers perceive and respond to the problem. This paper also presented examples demonstrating how nature and humanity's relationship to nature are being presented and what types of responses to global warming are being presented. The issue of who is responsible for acting to prevent or mitigate climate change was also discussed. It was shown that media narratives of global warming are not just stories of scientists debating the existence of global warming, but that they now largely accept global warming as a reality. However, the media continue to construct the problem in narrow technical, economic and anthropocentric terms. Mass media interpretation of global warming offer up a limited selection of problem definitions, reasons for acting and ways of addressing the problem. It was cautioned that this approach will likely promote futility, denial and apathy on the part of the public. 21 refs.

  14. Ecophysiological responses of native and invasive grasses to simulated warming and drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, S.; Law, D. J.; Wiede, A.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Breshears, D. D.; Dontsova, K.; Huxman, T. E.

    2011-12-01

    Climate models predict that many arid regions around the world - including the North American deserts - may become affected more frequently by recurrent droughts. At the same time, these regions are experiencing rapid vegetation transformations such as invasion by exotic grasses. Thus, understanding the ecophysiological processes accompanying exotic grass invasion in the context of rising temperatures and recurrent droughts is fundamental to global change research. Under ambient and warmer (+ 4° C) conditions inside the Biosphere 2 facility, we compared the ecophysiological responses (e.g. photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, pre-dawn leaf water potential, light & CO2 response functions, biomass) of a native grass - Heteropogan contortus (Tangle head) and an invasive grass - Pennisetum ciliare (Buffel grass) growing in single and mixed communities. Further, we monitored the physiological responses and mortality of these plant communities under moisture stress conditions, simulating a global change-type-drought. The results indicate that the predicted warming scenarios may enhance the invasibility of desert landscapes by exotic grasses. In this study, buffel grass assimilated more CO2 per unit leaf area and out-competed native grasses more efficiently in a warmer environment. However, scenarios involving a combination of drought and warming proved disastrous to both the native and invasive grasses, with drought-induced grass mortality occurring at much shorter time scales under warmer conditions.

  15. Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

    2017-09-01

    Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvell, C. Drew; Mitchell, Charles E.; Ward, Jessica R.; Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Samuel, Michael D.

    2002-06-01

    Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

  17. Cropping system innovation for coping with climatic warming in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aixing Deng

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available China is becoming the largest grain producing and carbon-emitting country in the world, with a steady increase in population and economic development. A review of Chinese experiences in ensuring food self-sufficiency and reducing carbon emission in the agricultural sector can provide a valuable reference for similar countries and regions. According to a comprehensive review of previous publications and recent field observations, China has experienced on average a larger and faster climatic warming trend than the global trend, and there are large uncertainties in precipitation change, which shows a non-significantly increasing trend. Existing evidence shows that the effects of climatic warming on major staple crop production in China could be markedly negative or positive, depending on the specific cropping region, season, and crop. However, historical data analysis and field warming experiments have shown that moderate warming, of less than 2.0 °C, could benefit crop production in China overall. During the most recent warming decades, China has made successful adaptations in cropping systems, such as new cultivar breeding, cropping region adjustment, and cropping practice optimization, to exploit the positive rather than to avoid the negative effects of climatic warming on crop growth. All of these successful adaptations have greatly increased crop yield, leading to higher resource use efficiency as well as greatly increased soil organic carbon content with reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Under the warming climate, China has not only achieved great successes in crop production but also realized a large advance in greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Chinese experiences in cropping system innovation for coping with climatic warming demonstrate that food security and climatic warming mitigation can be synergized through policy, knowledge, and technological innovation. With the increasingly critical status of food security and climatic warming

  18. The Great Warming Brian Fagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, B. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

  19. Trends in temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Zhou, Xiaowen; Lai, Chengguang; Chen, Xiaohong

    2017-08-01

    By characterizing the patterns of temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 extreme temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold extremes significantly decreased but warm extremes significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to warm faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and winter, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, warming was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes warmed faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid warming trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated warming at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and winter, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature extremes across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.

  20. Warm Up to a Good Sound

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovey, David C.

    1977-01-01

    Most choral directors in schools today have been exposed to a variety of warm-up procedures. Yet, many do not use the warm-up time effectively as possible. Considers the factors appropriate to a warm-up exercise and three basic warm-up categories. (Author/RK)

  1. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  2. $\\phi$ meson production in the forward/backward rapidity region in Cu$+$Au collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}=200$ GeV

    CERN Document Server

    Adare, A; Ajitanand, N N; Akiba, Y; Akimoto, R; Alexander, J; Alfred, M; Al-Ta'ani, H; Andrews, K R; Angerami, A; Aoki, K; Apadula, N; Appelt, E; Aramaki, Y; Armendariz, R; Asano, H; Aschenauer, E C; Atomssa, E T; Awes, T C; Azmoun, B; Babintsev, V; Bai, M; Bai, X; Bandara, N S; Bannier, B; Barish, K N; Bassalleck, B; Basye, A T; Bathe, S; Baublis, V; Baumann, C; Baumgart, S; Bazilevsky, A; Beaumier, M; Beckman, S; Belmont, R; Ben-Benjamin, J; Bennett, R; Berdnikov, A; Berdnikov, Y; Black, D; Blau, D S; Bok, J S; Boyle, K; Brooks, M L; Broxmeyer, D; Bryslawskyj, J; Buesching, H; Bumazhnov, V; Bunce, G; Butsyk, S; Campbell, S; Castera, P; Chen, C -H; Chi, C Y; Chiu, M; Choi, I J; Choi, J B; Choi, S; Choudhury, R K; Christiansen, P; Chujo, T; Chvala, O; Cianciolo, V; Citron, Z; Cole, B A; del Valle, Z Conesa; Connors, M; Cronin, N; Crossette, N; Csanád, M; Csörgő, T; Dairaku, S; Danley, D; Datta, A; Daugherity, M S; David, G; Dayananda, M K; DeBlasio, K; Dehmelt, K; Denisov, A; Deshpande, A; Desmond, E J; Dharmawardane, K V; Dietzsch, O; Ding, L; Dion, A; Diss, P B; Do, J H; Donadelli, M; D'Orazio, L; Drapier, O; Drees, A; Drees, K A; Durham, J M; Durum, A; Efremenko, Y V; Engelmore, T; Enokizono, A; En'yo, H; Esumi, S; Eyser, K O; Fadem, B; Feege, N; Fields, D E; Finger, M; Jr., \\,; Fleuret, F; Fokin, S L; Frantz, J E; Franz, A; Frawley, A D; Fukao, Y; Fusayasu, T; Gainey, K; Gal, C; Gallus, P; Garg, P; Garishvili, A; Garishvili, I; Ge, H; Giordano, F; Glenn, A; Gong, X; Gonin, M; Goto, Y; de Cassagnac, R Granier; Grau, N; Greene, S V; Perdekamp, M Grosse; Gu, Y; Gunji, T; Guo, L; Guragain, H; Gustafsson, H -Å; Hachiya, T; Haggerty, J S; Hahn, K I; Hamagaki, H; Hamblen, J; Hamilton, H F; Han, R; Han, S Y; Hanks, J; Harper, C; Hasegawa, S; Haseler, T O S; Hashimoto, K; Haslum, E; Hayano, R; He, X; Hemmick, T K; Hester, T; Hill, J C; Hollis, R S; Holzmann, W; Homma, K; Hong, B; Horaguchi, T; Hori, Y; Hornback, D; Hoshino, T; Hotvedt, N; Huang, J; Huang, S; Ichihara, T; Ichimiya, R; Iinuma, H; Ikeda, Y; Imai, K; Imazu, Y; Inaba, M; Iordanova, A; Isenhower, D; Ishihara, M; Isinhue, A; Issah, M; Ivanishchev, D; Iwanaga, Y; Jacak, B V; Jeon, S J; Jezghani, M; Jia, J; Jiang, X; John, D; Johnson, B M; Jones, T; Joo, K S; Jouan, D; Jumper, D S; Kamin, J; Kanda, S; Kaneti, S; Kang, B H; Kang, J H; Kang, J S; Kapustinsky, J; Karatsu, K; Kasai, M; Kawall, D; Kazantsev, A V; Kempel, T; Key, J A; Khachatryan, V; Khandai, P K; Khanzadeev, A; Kijima, K M; Kim, B I; Kim, C; Kim, D J; Kim, E -J; Kim, G W; Kim, M; Kim, Y -J; Kim, Y K; Kimelman, B; Kinney, E; Kiss, Á; Kistenev, E; Kitamura, R; Klatsky, J; Kleinjan, D; Kline, P; Koblesky, T; Kochenda, L; Kofarago, M; Komkov, B; Konno, M; Koster, J; Kotchetkov, D; Kotov, D; Král, A; Krizek, F; Kunde, G J; Kurita, K; Kurosawa, M; Kwon, Y; Kyle, G S; Lacey, R; Lai, Y S; Lajoie, J G; Lebedev, A; Lee, D M; Lee, G H; Lee, J; Lee, K B; Lee, K S; Lee, S; Lee, S H; Lee, S R; Leitch, M J; Leite, M A L; Leitgab, M; Lewis, B; Li, X; Lim, S H; Levy, L A Linden; Liu, H; Liu, M X; Love, B; Lynch, D; Maguire, C F; Makdisi, Y I; Makek, M; Manion, A; Manko, V I; Mannel, E; Mao, Y; Maruyama, T; Masui, H; McCumber, M; McGaughey, P L; McGlinchey, D; McKinney, C; Means, N; Meles, A; Mendoza, M; Meredith, B; Miake, Y; Mibe, T; Mignerey, A C; Miki, K; Milov, A; Mishra, D K; Mitchell, J T; Miyachi, Y; Miyasaka, S; Mizuno, S; Mohanty, A K; Mohapatra, S; Montuenga, P; Moon, H J; Moon, T; Morino, Y; Morreale, A; Morrison, D P; Moskowitz, M; Motschwiller, S; Moukhanova, T V; Murakami, T; Murata, J; Mwai, A; Nagae, T; Nagamiya, S; Nagashima, K; Nagle, J L; Naglis, M; Nagy, M I; Nakagawa, I; Nakagomi, H; Nakamiya, Y; Nakamura, K R; Nakamura, T; Nakano, K; Nattrass, C; Netrakanti, P K; Newby, J; Nguyen, M; Nihashi, M; Niida, T; Nishimura, S; Nouicer, R; Novak, T; Novitzky, N; Nyanin, A S; Oakley, C; O'Brien, E; Ogilvie, C A; Oide, H; Oka, M; Okada, K; Koop, J D Orjuela; Osborn, J D; Oskarsson, A; Ouchida, M; Ozawa, K; Pak, R; Pantuev, V; Papavassiliou, V; Park, B H; Park, I H; Park, J S; Park, S; Park, S K; Pate, S F; Patel, L; Patel, M; Pei, H; Peng, J -C; Pereira, H; Perepelitsa, D V; Perera, G D N; Peressounko, D Yu; Perry, J; Petti, R; Pinkenburg, C; Pinson, R; Pisani, R P; Proissl, M; Purschke, M L; Qu, H; Rak, J; Ramson, B J; Ravinovich, I; Read, K F; Reygers, K; Reynolds, D; Riabov, V; Riabov, Y; Richardson, E; Rinn, T; Riveli, N; Roach, D; Roche, G; Rolnick, S D; Rosati, M; Rosendahl, S S E; Rowan, Z; Rubin, J G; Ryu, M S; Sahlmueller, B; Saito, N; Sakaguchi, T; Sako, H; Samsonov, V; Sano, S; Sarsour, M; Sato, S; Sato, T; Savastio, M; Sawada, S; Schaefer, B; Schmoll, B K; Sedgwick, K; Seele, J; Seidl, R; Sekiguchi, Y; Sen, A; Seto, R; Sett, P; Sexton, A; Sharma, D; Shaver, A; Shein, I; Shibata, T -A; Shigaki, K; Shim, H H; Shimomura, M; Shoji, K; Shukla, P; Sickles, A; Silva, C L; Silvermyr, D; Silvestre, C; Sim, K S; Singh, B K; Singh, C P; Singh, V; Skolnik, M; Slunečka, M; Snowball, M; Sodre, T; Solano, S; Soltz, R A; Sondheim, W E; Sorensen, S P; Sourikova, I V; Stankus, P W; Steinberg, P; Stenlund, E; Stepanov, M; Ster, A; Stoll, S P; Stone, M R; Sugitate, T; Sukhanov, A; Sumita, T; Sun, J; Sziklai, J; Takagui, E M; Takahara, A; Taketani, A; Tanabe, R; Tanaka, Y; Taneja, S; Tanida, K; Tannenbaum, M J; Tarafdar, S; Taranenko, A; Tennant, E; Themann, H; Thomas, D; Tieulent, R; Timilsina, A; Todoroki, T; Togawa, M; Tomášek, L; Tomášek, M; Torii, H; Towell, C L; Towell, R; Towell, R S; Tserruya, I; Tsuchimoto, Y; Utsunomiya, K; Vale, C; van Hecke, H W; Vargyas, M; Vazquez-Zambrano, E; Veicht, A; Velkovska, J; Vértesi, R; Virius, M; Vossen, A; Vrba, V; Vznuzdaev, E; Wang, X R; Watanabe, D; Watanabe, K; Watanabe, Y; Watanabe, Y S; Wei, F; Wei, R; Wessels, J; Whitaker, S; White, A S; White, S N; Winter, D; Wolin, S; Woody, C L; Wright, R M; Wysocki, M; Xia, B; Xue, L; Yalcin, S; Yamaguchi, Y L; Yang, R; Yanovich, A; Ying, J; Yokkaichi, S; Yoo, J H; Yoo, J S; Yoon, I; You, Z; Young, G R; Younus, I; Yu, H; Yushmanov, I E; Zajc, W A; Zelenski, A; Zhou, S; Zou, L

    2015-01-01

    The PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) has measured $\\phi$ meson production and its nuclear modification in asymmetric Cu$+$Au heavy-ion collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}=200$ GeV at both forward Cu-going direction ($1.2rapidities. The measurements are performed via the dimuon decay channel and reported as a function of the number of participating nucleons, rapidity, and transverse momentum. In the most central events, 0\\%--20\\% centrality, the $\\phi$ meson yield integrated over $1rapidities.

  3. An overview of studies of observed climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Long You

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH hereafter region is characterized by mountainous environments and a variety of regional climatic conditions. High-altitude regions in the HKH have the recent warming amplifications, especially during the global warming hiatus period. The rapid warming cause solid state water (snow, ice, glacier, and permafrost to shrink, leading to increase in meltwater and there have been found more frequent incidences of flash floods, landslides, livestock diseases, and other disasters in the HKH region. Increasing awareness of climate change over the HKH region is reached a consensus. Meanwhile, the HKH region is often referred to as the water towers of Asia as many high-altitude regions store its water in the form of snow and/or glacier, feeding ten major large rivers in Asia. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on water availability in these river basins have huge influences on the livelihood of large number of population, especially in downstream regions. However, the scarcity of basic hydro-meteorological observations particularly in high-altitude regions of HKH limits rigorous analysis of climate change. Most studies used reanalysis data and/or model-reconstructed products to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of hydro-meteorological processes, especially for extreme events. In this study, we review recent climate change in the HKH region, and the scientific challenges and research recommendations are suggested for this high-altitude area.

  4. Calcium ions facilitate body heat emission response to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkachenko, E Ya; Khramova, G M; Kozyreva, T V

    2015-01-01

    Involvement of various areas of the body surface in heat emission response to warming is characterized by a certain succession. The first response preceding the deep body temperature rise is dilation of ear skin vessels. Then, an increase in deep body temperature is counterbalanced by vascular reaction in the tail region, which plays the leading role in up-regulation of heat emission. Calcium ions accelerate the vascular response to warming in both regions, although they produce no effect on the maximum level of heat emission. Our findings confirm the involvement of Ca(2+)-dependent mechanisms in activation of the processes aimed at stabilization of body temperature in warm-blooded animals. The role of heat-sensitive TRPV1 ion channels determining modality of the temperature signal and direction of effector reactions is discussed.

  5. Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Michael R; Briscoe, Natalie J; Karoly, David J; Porter, Warren P; Norgate, Melanie; Sunnucks, Paul

    2010-10-23

    There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted -1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.

  6. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  7. Global warming and infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khasnis, Atul A; Nettleman, Mary D

    2005-01-01

    Global warming has serious implications for all aspects of human life, including infectious diseases. The effect of global warming depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. From the human standpoint, changes in the environment may trigger human migration, causing disease patterns to shift. Crop failures and famine may reduce host resistance to infections. Disease transmission may be enhanced through the scarcity and contamination of potable water sources. Importantly, significant economic and political stresses may damage the existing public health infrastructure, leaving mankind poorly prepared for unexpected epidemics. Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. Altitudes that are currently too cool to sustain vectors will become more conducive to them. Some vector populations may expand into new geographic areas, whereas others may disappear. Malaria, dengue, plague, and viruses causing encephalitic syndromes are among the many vector-borne diseases likely to be affected. Some models suggest that vector-borne diseases will become more common as the earth warms, although caution is needed in interpreting these predictions. Clearly, global warming will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The ability of mankind to react or adapt is dependent upon the magnitude and speed of the change. The outcome will also depend on our ability to recognize epidemics early, to contain them effectively, to provide appropriate treatment, and to commit resources to prevention and research.

  8. Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, X.; Huang, J.; Guo, R.; Lin, P.; Zhang, Y.

    2015-08-01

    As the climate change occurred over East Asia since 1950s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. In this study, we investigate surface temperature change using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced temperature (DIT) and radiatively forced temperature (RFT) changes in raw surface air temperature (SAT) data. For regional averages, DIT and RFT make 43.7 and 56.3 % contributions to the SAT over East Asia, respectively. The DIT changes dominate the SAT decadal variability and are mainly determined by internal climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The radiatively forced SAT changes made major contribution to the global-scale warming trend and the regional-scale enhanced semi-arid warming (ESAW). Such enhanced warming is also found in radiatively forced daily maximum and minimum SAT. The long-term global-mean SAT warming trend is mainly related to radiative forcing produced by global well-mixed greenhouse gases. The regional anthropogenic radiative forcing, however, caused the enhanced warming in the semi-arid region, which may be closely associated with local human activities. Finally, the relationship between global warming hiatus and regional enhanced warming is discussed.

  9. Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Martusa, Riki

    2009-01-01

    This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

  10. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

    2018-02-01

    Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

  11. Liquid Film Migration in Warm Formed Aluminum Brazing Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benoit, M. J.; Whitney, M. A.; Wells, M. A.; Jin, H.; Winkler, S.

    2017-10-01

    Warm forming has previously proven to be a promising manufacturing route to improve formability of Al brazing sheets used in automotive heat exchanger production; however, the impact of warm forming on subsequent brazing has not previously been studied. In particular, the interaction between liquid clad and solid core alloys during brazing through the process of liquid film migration (LFM) requires further understanding. Al brazing sheet comprised of an AA3003 core and AA4045 clad alloy, supplied in O and H24 tempers, was stretched between 0 and 12 pct strain, at room temperature and 523K (250 °C), to simulate warm forming. Brazeability was predicted through thermal and microstructure analysis. The rate of solid-liquid interactions was quantified using thermal analysis, while microstructure analysis was used to investigate the opposing processes of LFM and core alloy recrystallization during brazing. In general, liquid clad was consumed relatively rapidly and LFM occurred in forming conditions where the core alloy did not recrystallize during brazing. The results showed that warm forming could potentially impair brazeability of O temper sheet by extending the regime over which LFM occurs during brazing. No change in microstructure or thermal data was found for H24 sheet when the forming temperature was increased, and thus warm forming was not predicted to adversely affect the brazing performance of H24 sheet.

  12. Ocean warming expands habitat of a rich natural resource and benefits a national economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansen, Teunis; Post, Søren Lorenzen; Kristiansen, Trond

    2016-01-01

    Geographic redistribution of living natural resources changes access and thereby harvesting opportunities between countries. Internationally shared fish resources can be sensitive to shifts in the marine environment and this may have great impact on the economies of countries and regions that rely...... northwest in the Atlantic. This change in migration pattern was followed by a rapid development of a large-scale fishery of substantial importance for the national economy of Greenland (23% of Greenland's export value of all goods in 2014). A pelagic trawl survey was conducted in mid-summer 2014...... and the results showed that the bulk of similar to 1 million Mg (=t) of mackerel in the Irminger Current in southeast Greenland were located in the relatively warm (>8.5 degrees C) surface layer. Mackerel was also observed in southwest Greenland. Finally, 15 CMIP5 Earth System Model projections of future marine...

  13. Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

    2016-01-01

    The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

  14. Global warming at the summit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

  15. Frontiers and challenges in warm dense matter

    CERN Document Server

    Desjarlais, Michael; Redmer, Ronald; Trickey, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Warm Dense Matter (WDM) occupies a loosely defined region of phase space intermediate between solid, liquid, gas, and plasma, and typically shares characteristics of two or more of these phases. WDM is generally associated with the combination of strongly coupled ions and moderately degenerate electrons, and careful attention to quantum physics and electronic structure is essential. The lack of a small perturbation parameter greatly limits approximate attempts at its accurate description. Since WDM resides at the intersection of solid state and high energy density physics, many high energy density physics (HEDP) experiments pass through this difficult region of phase space. Thus, understanding and modeling WDM is key to the success of experiments on diverse facilities. These include the National Ignition Campaign centered on the National Ignition Facility (NIF), pulsed-power driven experiments on the Z machine, ion-beam-driven WDM experiments on the NDCX-II, and fundamental WDM research at the Linear Coherent...

  16. Global Warming and the Microwave Background

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In the work, the importance of assigning the microwave background to the Earth is ad- dressed while emphasizing the consequences for global climate change. Climate mod- els can only produce meaningful forecasts when they consider the real magnitude of all radiative processes. The oceans and continents both contribute to terrestrial emis- sions. However, the extent of oceanic radiation, particularly in the microwave region, raises concerns. This is not only since the globe is covered with water, but because the oceans themselves are likely to be weaker emitters than currently believed. Should the microwave background truly be generated by the oceans of the Earth, our planet would be a much less efficient emitter of radiation in this region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Furthermore, the oceans would appear unable to increase their emissions in the microwave in response to temperature elevation, as predicted by Stefan’s law. The results are significant relative to the modeling of global warming.

  17. Global warming and water sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cassardo Claudio

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Water is a primary element in the human diet and a necessary resource for the agriculture. In addition, industrial practices need a growing amount of water. Since human population is continuously growing at a quasi-exponential rate, water demand, for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses, is increasing too. However, considering that the water resources on the Earth are finite, even disregarding the potential threats due to the climate change, this situation appears as one of the biggest challenges of the current era. Actually, one-third of the world’s population is water-stressed, of which 12% severely: in these nations, a large portion of the population lives below the minimum threshold judged permissible for a decent life. In practice, almost every nation deals with problems related to water sustainability. In some countries, the water supply is ensured only thanks to the extraction of fossil water, which is a limited resource that will not last indefinitely. The impact on water quality has also dramatically increased. The scarcity of water resources is expected to spread to wider areas in the near future, mostly in developing countries, if the actual trends of development and population growth do not change. The rapid urbanizing rate will also create additional stress. Climate change can in turn alter both water supply and demand: increasing temperatures will reflect in increased evaporation and decreased stream flows. Rising seas could contaminate groundwater resources, and increasingly variable precipitation will likely mean more frequent high-intensity droughts and floods and less available rainfall in arid and semiarid regions. The effects of these changes will increase the natural variability of the climate, exacerbating the extreme climatic phenomena (drought and flood events, increasing the difficulty of managing water resources, especially in the most vulnerable regions, and affecting water availability even in regions that are

  18. A rapid and reliable method for discriminating rice products from different regions using MCX-based solid-phase extraction and DI-MS/MS-based metabolomics approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Dong Kyu; Mo, Changyeun; Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Lim, Jongguk; Kwon, Sung Won

    2017-09-01

    The expansion of the global rice marketplace ultimately raises concerns about authenticity control. Several analytical methods for differentiating the geographical origin of rice have been developed, yet a high-throughput method is still in demand. In this study, we developed a rapid approach using direct infusion-mass spectrometry (DI-MS) to distinguish rice products from different countries. Specifically, the elimination of the matrix effect by a polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) filter, a mixed-mode cation exchange (MCX) solid-phase extraction (SPE) with 20% methanol, and an MCX SPE with 100% methanol were measured. Afterward, partial least squares discriminant analysis and random forests were applied to seek the optimal discrimination method. The results revealed that the combination of MCX SPE with 100% methanol and DI-MS in positive ion mode (accuracy=1.000, R2=0.916, Q2=0.720, B/W-based p-value=0.015) or the combination of MCX SPE with 20% methanol and targeted DI-MS/MS in positive ion mode (accuracy=1.000, R2=0.931, Q2=0.849, B/W-based p-value=0.002) showed the excellent discriminatory ability. Furthermore, differentially expressed metabolites including sodiated lysophosphatidylcholine, lysophosphatidylcholine, lysophosphatidylethanolamines and lysophosphatidylglycerol classes were found. In conclusion, our study provides a rapid and reliable platform for geographical discrimination of white rice and will contribute to the authenticity control of rice products. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The effects of different warm stratification periods on the seed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PRECIOUS

    2009-09-11

    Sep 11, 2009 ... In this study, the effects of different warm stratification periods on the seed germination of some Rosa species such as Rosa heckellana ssp. vanheurckiana, Rosa canina, Rosa pulverelanta and Rosa dumalis naturally grown in the Van region were investigated. In 2007, seeds of these species were kept.

  20. Warming in the Northern Great Plains: Impact and Response in the Agricultural Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seielstad, G.; Welling, L.

    2001-12-01

    Because agricultural production in the northern Great Plains contributes significantly to both domestic and international markets the impacts of climate change, as well as the response strategies undertaken by the region's residents, will be felt throughout the nation and the world. The national assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the United States has pointed out that the northern Great Plains could be favored under global warming scenarios in that future climates could increase crop yields [Reilly, Tubiello, McCarl, and Melillo, 2000]. Yield, though, is only one measure of the consequences that rapid warming might have on this region. Challenges to a changing environment must be met by people. Producers here, as well as in other agricultural regions, already function under multiple stresses that are completely separate from climate variability and change. These include falling prices, globalization, complex trade relations, changes in government policy, environmental constraints, and changing consumer preferences. It is against the backdrop of these stresses that pending climate changes must be considered. Interactions with stakeholders through the NGP Assessment workshops, held in 1997 and 1999, identified key concerns and outlined potential mitigation and optimization strategies for the consequences of climate change in this region. We will present examples of the successful implementation of some of these strategies: actions that farmers and ranchers are employing to 1) increase their awareness of environmental factors, 2) enhance their ability to respond quickly to environmental change, 3) improve their economic returns, and 4) decrease environmental degradation. We will also highlight other "no regrets" actions and policies under consideration that may offer individual producers greater flexibility in their management decisions and provide a healthier environment for society at large.

  1. Variability among the most rapidly evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific: implications of pairwise genome comparisons in Pyrus (Rosaceae and other angiosperms for marker choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadja Korotkova

    Full Text Available Plastid genomes exhibit different levels of variability in their sequences, depending on the respective kinds of genomic regions. Genes are usually more conserved while noncoding introns and spacers evolve at a faster pace. While a set of about thirty maximum variable noncoding genomic regions has been suggested to provide universally promising phylogenetic markers throughout angiosperms, applications often require several regions to be sequenced for many individuals. Our project aims to illuminate evolutionary relationships and species-limits in the genus Pyrus (Rosaceae-a typical case with very low genetic distances between taxa. In this study, we have sequenced the plastid genome of Pyrus spinosa and aligned it to the already available P. pyrifolia sequence. The overall p-distance of the two Pyrus genomes was 0.00145. The intergenic spacers between ndhC-trnV, trnR-atpA, ndhF-rpl32, psbM-trnD, and trnQ-rps16 were the most variable regions, also comprising the highest total numbers of substitutions, indels and inversions (potentially informative characters. Our comparative analysis of further plastid genome pairs with similar low p-distances from Oenothera (representing another rosid, Olea (asterids and Cymbidium (monocots showed in each case a different ranking of genomic regions in terms of variability and potentially informative characters. Only two intergenic spacers (ndhF-rpl32 and trnK-rps16 were consistently found among the 30 top-ranked regions. We have mapped the occurrence of substitutions and microstructural mutations in the four genome pairs. High AT content in specific sequence elements seems to foster frequent mutations. We conclude that the variability among the fastest evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific and thus cannot be precisely predicted across angiosperms. The often lineage-specific occurrence of stem-loop elements in the sequences of introns and spacers also governs lineage-specific mutations. Sequencing

  2. Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodarzi, Parviz [University of Ayatollah Ozma Borujerdi, Department of Science, Boroujerd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sadjadi, H.M. [University of Tehran, Department of Physics, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-07-15

    In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

  3. Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Jianguang; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Anping; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Ciais, Philippe; Janssens, Ivan A; Mao, Jiafu; Myneni, Ranga B; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Shi, Xiaoying; Vicca, Sara

    2015-01-01

    Over the last century the Northern Hemisphere has experienced rapid climate warming, but this warming has not been evenly distributed seasonally, as well as diurnally. The implications of such seasonal and diurnal heterogeneous warming on regional and global vegetation photosynthetic activity, however, are still poorly understood. Here, we investigated for different seasons how photosynthetic activity of vegetation correlates with changes in seasonal daytime and night-time temperature across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2011 obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Our analysis revealed some striking seasonal differences in the response of NDVI to changes in day- vs. night-time temperatures. For instance, while higher daytime temperature (Tmax) is generally associated with higher NDVI values across the boreal zone, the area exhibiting a statistically significant positive correlation between Tmax and NDVI is much larger in spring (41% of area in boreal zone--total area 12.6×10(6) km2) than in summer and autumn (14% and 9%, respectively). In contrast to the predominantly positive response of boreal ecosystems to changes in Tmax, increases in Tmax tended to negatively influence vegetation growth in temperate dry regions, particularly during summer. Changes in night-time temperature (Tmin) correlated negatively with autumnal NDVI in most of the Northern Hemisphere, but had a positive effect on spring and summer NDVI in most temperate regions (e.g., Central North America and Central Asia). Such divergent covariance between the photosynthetic activity of Northern Hemispheric vegetation and day- and night-time temperature changes among different seasons and climate zones suggests a changing dominance of ecophysiological processes across time and space. Understanding the seasonally different responses of vegetation photosynthetic activity to diurnal temperature changes

  4. Warming and nitrogen fertilization effects on winter wheat yields in northern China varied between four years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Liting; Hu, Chunsheng; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to affect wheat productivity significantly, but with large regional differences depending on current climatic conditions. We conducted a study that aimed to investigate how wheat growth and development as well as yield and yield components respond to warming combined...... with nitrogen fertilization. Infrared heaters were applied above the crop and soil to provide a warming of around 2 °C at 5 cm soil depth during the whole winter wheat growing season from 2008 to 2012 at a site near Shijiazhuang in the North China Plain. Two temperature levels (warming and ambient) for winter...

  5. A technique to reduce low dose region for craniospinal irradiation (CSI) with RapidArc and its dosimetric comparison with 3D conformal technique (3DCRT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Roopam; Saini, Gagan; Sharma, Pramod Kumar; Chomal, Manish; Aagarwal, Anchal; Nangia, Sapna; Garg, Madhur

    2015-01-01

    We proposed a method to reduce the volume of normal tissues irradiated by low doses in patients receiving CSI with RapidArc (RA) using Avoidance-Sector technique (RA+AS) and to compare its dosimetric implications with RA using full-arc (RA+FA) and 3D conformal technique (3DCRT). Four patients of CSI were retrospectively planned with 3DCRT, RA+FA, and RA+AS. Conformity-Index (CI), Homogeneity-Index (HI), and Paddick Gradient-Index (GI) were calculated. Quantitative evaluation was done using DVH analysis for PTVs and OARs. When compared with 3DCRT, GI, CI, and HI were favorable to RA based techniques. In comparison with 3DCRT the doses to OARs were lower with RA+AS with the difference being statistically significant in most instances. RA+AS significantly decreases the dose to OARs and their volumes receiving low doses in comparison with RA+FA and 3DCRT.

  6. Plant movements and climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A.; De Schrijver, An

    2014-01-01

    •Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting therma...

  7. Rapid Ecological Assessment Methods for Forests in the Laurentian Mixed Forest-Great Lakes Coastal Biological Network, Midwest Region, National Wildlife Refuge System, US Fish & Wildlife Service Midwest Region - Survey Protocol Framework: First Edition (2014)

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This protocol framework provides guidance for conducting Inventories of forests at multiple stations within a region. During 2010 and 2011, six refuges of the...

  8. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2017-07-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  9. Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Keller

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the

  10. Edging along a Warming Coast: A Range Extension for a Common Sandy Beach Crab.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S Schoeman

    Full Text Available Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species' ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward range edge of Ocypode cordimanus, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E, 270 km (along the coast south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a "hotspot" of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20-50 km.decade-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like O. cordimanus represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that "hotspots" of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.

  11. Sea Ice Trends in Climate Models Only Accurate in Runs with Biased Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenblum, Erica; Eisenman, Ian

    2017-08-01

    Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here we examine sea ice changes during 1979-2013 in simulations from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as well as the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), drawing on previous work that found a close relationship in climate models between global-mean surface temperature and sea ice extent. We find that all of the simulations with 1979-2013 Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed have considerably more global warming than observations during this time period. Using two separate methods to estimate the sea ice retreat that would occur under the observed level of global warming in each simulation in both ensembles, we find that simulated Arctic sea ice retreat as fast as observed would occur less than 1% of the time. This implies that the models are not consistent with the observations. In the Antarctic, we find that simulated sea ice expansion as fast as observed typically corresponds with too little global warming, although these results are more equivocal. We show that because of this, the simulations do not capture the observed asymmetry between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice trends. This suggests that the models may be getting the right sea ice trends for the wrong reasons in both polar regions.

  12. The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGlade, Christophe; Ekins, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2 °C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times. It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2). However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this, and so the unabated use of all current fossil fuel reserves is incompatible with a warming limit of 2 °C. Here we use a single integrated assessment model that contains estimates of the quantities, locations and nature of the world's oil, gas and coal reserves and resources, and which is shown to be consistent with a wide variety of modelling approaches with different assumptions, to explore the implications of this emissions limit for fossil fuel production in different regions. Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2 °C. We show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C. Our results show that policy makers' instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit. Implementation of this policy commitment would also render unnecessary continued substantial expenditure on fossil fuel exploration, because any new discoveries could not lead to increased aggregate production.

  13. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Reed

    Full Text Available The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  14. Shifting baselines in Antarctic ecosystems; ecophysiological response to warming in Lissarca miliaris at Signy Island, Antarctica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Adam J; Thatje, Sven; Linse, Katrin

    2012-01-01

    The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid increase in atmospheric temperature over the last 50 years. Whether or not marine organisms thriving in this cold stenothermal environment are able to cope with warming is of concern. Here, we present changes to the growth and shell characteristics of the ecologically important, small and short lived brooding bivalve Lissarca miliaris from Signy Island, Antarctica. Using material collected from the 1970's to the present day, we show an increase in growth rate and adult shell deterioration accompanied by a decrease in offspring size, associated with an increase in annual average temperatures. Critical changes to the bivalve's ecology seen today evidence the problem of a shift in baseline since the onset of warming recorded in Antarctica. These small bivalves are demonstrating ecophysiological responses to subtle warming that, provided warming continues, could soon surpass a physiological tipping point, adding to warming associated threats such as increased predatory pressure and ocean acidification.

  15. Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

  16. Rapid isolation of microsatellite DNAs and identification of polymorphic mitochondrial DNA regions in the fish rotan (Perccottus glenii) invading European Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Timothy L.; Eackles, Michael S.; Reshetnikov, Andrey N.

    2015-01-01

    Human-mediated translocations and subsequent large-scale colonization by the invasive fish rotan (Perccottus glenii Dybowski, 1877; Perciformes, Odontobutidae), also known as Amur or Chinese sleeper, has resulted in dramatic transformations of small lentic ecosystems. However, no detailed genetic information exists on population structure, levels of effective movement, or relatedness among geographic populations of P. glenii within the European part of the range. We used massively parallel genomic DNA shotgun sequencing on the semiconductor-based Ion Torrent Personal Genome Machine (PGM) sequencing platform to identify nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA sequences in P. glenii from European Russia. Here we describe the characterization of nine nuclear microsatellite loci, ascertain levels of allelic diversity, heterozygosity, and demographic status of P. glenii collected from Ilev, Russia, one of several initial introduction points in European Russia. In addition, we mapped sequence reads to the complete P. glenii mitochondrial DNA sequence to identify polymorphic regions. Nuclear microsatellite markers developed for P. glenii yielded sufficient genetic diversity to: (1) produce unique multilocus genotypes; (2) elucidate structure among geographic populations; and (3) provide unique perspectives for analysis of population sizes and historical demographics. Among 4.9 million filtered P. glenii Ion Torrent PGM sequence reads, 11,304 mapped to the mitochondrial genome (NC_020350). This resulted in 100 % coverage of this genome to a mean coverage depth of 102X. A total of 130 variable sites were observed between the publicly available genome from China and the studied composite mitochondrial genome. Among these, 82 were diagnostic and monomorphic between the mitochondrial genomes and distributed among 15 genome regions. The polymorphic sites (N = 48) were distributed among 11 mitochondrial genome regions. Our results also indicate that sequence reads generated

  17. Impacts of uncertainty in AVOC emissions on the summer RO x budget and ozone production rate in the three most rapidly-developing economic growth regions of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Feng; An, Junling; Li, Ying; Tang, Yujia; Lin, Jian; Qu, Yu; Chen, Yong; Zhang, Bing; Zhai, Jing

    2014-11-01

    High levels of uncertainty in non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions in China could lead to significant variation in the budget of the sum of hydroxyl (OH) and peroxy (HO2, RO2) radicals (RO x = OH + HO2 + RO2) and the ozone production rate [P(O3)], but few studies have investigated this possibility, particularly with three-dimensional air quality models. We added diagnostic variables into the WRF-Chem model to assess the impact of the uncertainty in anthropogenic NMVOC (AVOC) emissions on the RO x budget and P(O3) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta of China. The WRF-Chem simulations were compared with satellite and ground observations, and previous observation-based model studies. Results indicated that 68% increases (decreases) in AVOC emissions produced 4%-280% increases (2%-80% decreases) in the concentrations of OH, HO2, and RO2 in the three regions, and resulted in 35%-48% enhancements (26%-39% reductions) in the primary RO x production and ˜ 65% decreases (68%-73% increases) of the P(O3) in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. For the three cities, the two largest contributors to the RO x production rate were the reaction of O1D + H2O and photolysis of HCHO, ALD2, and others; the reaction of OH + NO2 (71%-85%) was the major RO x sink; and the major contributor to P(O3) was the reaction of HO2 + NO (˜ 65%). Our results showed that AVOC emissions in 2006 from Zhang et al. (2009) have been underestimated by ˜ 68% in suburban areas and by > 68% in urban areas, implying that daily and hourly concentrations of secondary organic aerosols and inorganic aerosols could be substantially underestimated, and cloud condensation nuclei could be underestimated, whereas local and regional radiation was overestimated.

  18. PCR and PCR-RFLP of the 5S-rRNA-NTS region and salvinorin A analyses for the rapid and unequivocal determination of Salvia divinorum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertea, Cinzia M; Luciano, Pino; Bossi, Simone; Leoni, Francesca; Baiocchi, Claudio; Medana, Claudio; Azzolin, Chiara M M; Temporale, Giovanni; Lombardozzi, Maria Antonietta; Maffei, Massimo E

    2006-02-01

    Salvia divinorum Epling & Játiva-M. is a perennial herb belonging to the Lamiaceae family; its active ingredient, the neoclerodane diterpene salvinorin A, is a psychotropic molecule that produces hallucinations. A comparative evaluation of S. divinorum fresh and dried leaves, S. officinalis fresh leaves, and dried powdered leaves claimed to be S. divinorum was done. HPLC-MS data confirmed the presence of salvinorin A in both S. divinorun leaf extracts and the powdered leaves, whereas no salvinorin A was found in S. officinalis. The non-transcribed spacer (NTS) in the 5S-rRNA gene of all leaf samples and the dried powdered leaves was amplified by PCR using a pair of primers located at the 3' and 5' ends of the coding sequence of 5S-rRNA gene. The resulting PCR products (about 500bp for S. divinorum and 300bp for S. officinalis) were gel purified, subcloned into pGEM-T Easy vector and sequenced. By aligning the isolated nucleotide sequences, great diversities were found in the spacer region of the two species. Specific S. divinorum primers were designed on the sequence of the 5S-rRNA gene spacer region. In addition, a PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method was applied using NdeI and TaqI restriction enzymes. An NdeI site, absent in S. officinalis, was found in S. divinorum NTS region at 428-433bp. For TaqI, multiple sites (161-164, 170-173, and 217-220bp) were found in S. officinalis, whereas a unique site was found in S. divinorum (235-238bp). The results of this work show that the combined use of analytical chemical (HPLC-MS) and molecular (DNA fingerprinting) methods lead to the precise and unequivocal identification of S. divinorum.

  19. Separating warming-induced drought from drought-induced warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roderick, Michael; Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin

    2017-04-01

    A very widely held public perception is that increasing temperature is a cause of "drying" and drought. The atmospheric-focused meteorologic community has often assumed that the warmer temperatures increase evaporation and that this contributes to worsening drought via atmospheric demand. On the other hand, the agricultural and hydrologic scientific communities have a very different interpretation linked to water supply, with the lack of available water leading to reduced evaporation and enhanced surface warming. This is a classic chicken-or-the-egg problem that has resisted definitive explanation probably due to the lack of radiative observations at suitable spatial and temporal scales. Here we use recently released NASA CERES satellite radiation data to study the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We evaluate whether the observed increase in near-surface air temperature should be considered a forcing (as per standard meteorological approaches) or a feedback (as per standard agricultural and hydrologic approaches). We find that the radiative perturbation associated with the drought has a distinct radiative signature for more incoming shortwave- and less incoming longwave-radiation. That result, coupled with estimates of decreased evapotranspiration show that around two-third of the warming has a radiative origin and the remaining one-third is the result of a surface feedback from reduced evaporative cooling. Hence, the radiative perturbation during the recent Californian drought was distinctly different from the projected radiative perturbation of the enhanced greenhouse effect. We conclude that the warming experienced during meteorological drought is very different from the warming projected as a consequence of the enhanced greenhouse effect.

  20. The Great Season Climatic Oscillation and the Global Warming

    CERN Document Server

    Boucenna, Ahmed

    2008-01-01

    The present earth warming up is often explained by the atmosphere gas greenhouse effect. This explanation is in contradiction with the thermodynamics second law. The warming up by greenhouse effect is quite improbable. It is cloud reflection that gives to the earth s ground its 15 degres C mean temperature. Since the reflection of the radiation by gases is negligible, the role of the atmosphere greenhouse gases in the earth warming up by earth radiation reflection loses its importance. We think that natural climatic oscillations contribute more to earth climatic disturbances. The oscillation that we hypothesize to exist has a long period (800 to 1000 years). The glacier melting and regeneration cycles lead to variations in the cold region ocean water density and thermal conductibility according to their salinity. These variations lead one to think about a macro climate oscillating between maximum hot and minimum cold temperatures. This oscillation is materialized by the passages of the planet through hot, mil...

  1. The Use of Infrared Thermography as a Rapid, Quantitative, and Noninvasive Method for Evaluation of Inflammation Response in Different Anatomical Regions of Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ireneusz Całkosiński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Thermographic assessment of temperature distribution within the examined tissues allows a quick, noncontact, noninvasive measurement of their temperature. The aim of the study was to evaluate the usefulness of digital infrared imaging in monitoring experimental inflammation of pleura (PL, lower lip (LL, and left paw (LP and right paw (RP of lower limbs in rats. Materials and Methods. The inflammatory reaction was induced by injection of 1% carrageenin solution into pleural cavity, lip, or paws. With the use of digital infrared imaging temperature measurement was conducted at 0 to 72 hours of the inflammatory reaction. Results. The temperature decrease was observed at the site of injection directly afterwards. Next, it was gradually increasing and it reached the maximum on the third day of the inflammatory reaction. Statistically significant changes were observed after 48-hour period in PL and LL regions, as well as after 72-hour period in LP and RP regions P<0.005. Conclusion. It was found that thermographic examination allows for indicating the presence of inflammatory reaction within examined tissues and determining the dynamics of this process. This method could be used as alternative procedure that allows using fewer animals for experiments.

  2. Surface measurements of global warming causing atmospheric constituents in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, S N; Youn, Y H; Park, K J; Min, H K; Schnell, R C

    2001-07-01

    The expansion of the industrial economy and the increase of population in Northeast Asian countries have caused much interest in climate monitoring related to global warming. However, new techniques and better platforms for the measurement of global warming and regional databases are still old-fashioned and are not being developed sufficiently. With respect to this agenda, since 1993, at the request of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to monitor functions of global warming, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has set up a Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) Station on the western coast of Korea (Anmyun-do) and has been actively monitoring global warming over Northeast Asia. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been measured for a similar KMA global warming program at Kosan, Cheju Island since 1990. Aerosol and radiation have also been measured at both sites as well as in Seoul. The observations have been analyzed using diagnostics of climate change in Northeast Asia and also have been internationally compared. Results indicate that greenhouse gases are in good statistic agreement with the NOAA/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) long-term trends of monthly mean concentrations and seasonal cycles. Atmospheric particulate matter has also been analyzed for particular Asian types in terms of optical depth, number concentration and size distribution.

  3. Amplified summer warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Xiaowei; Lu, Riyu; Li, Shuanglin

    2017-09-01

    Regional temperature changes are a crucial factor in affecting agriculture, ecosystems and societies, which depend greatly on local temperatures. We identify a nonuniform warming pattern in summer around the mid-1990s over the Eurasian continent, with a predominant amplified warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia but much weaker warming over Central Asia. It is found that the nonuniform warming concurs with both the phase shift of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the decadal change in the Silk Road Pattern (SRP), which is an upper-tropospheric teleconnection pattern over the Eurasian continent during summer. We suggest that the AMO may modulate the decadal change in SRP and then induce the zonal asymmetry in temperature changes. Our results have important implications for decadal prediction of regional warming pattern in Eurasia based on the predictable AMO.

  4. More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

    2017-10-01

    The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

  5. A Biphasic Change of Regional Blood Volume in the Frontal Cortex during Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep: A Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongxing; Khatami, Ramin

    2015-08-01

    Current knowledge on hemodynamics in sleep is limited because available techniques do not allow continuous recordings and mainly focus on cerebral blood flow while neglecting other important parameters, such as blood volume (BV) and vasomotor activity. Observational study. Continuous measures of hemodynamics over the left forehead and biceps were performed using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) during nocturnal polysomnography in 16 healthy participants in sleep laboratory. Temporal dynamics and mean values of cerebral and muscular oxygenated hemoglobin (HbO2), deoxygenated hemoglobin (HHb), and BV during different sleep stages were compared. A biphasic change of cerebral BV was observed which contrasted a monotonic increase of muscular BV during non-rapid eye movement sleep. A significant decrement in cerebral HbO2 and BV accompanied by an increase of HHb was recorded at sleep onset (Phase I). Prior to slow wave sleep (SWS) HbO2 and BV turned to increase whereas HHb began to decrease in subsequent Phase II suggested increased brain perfusion during SWS. The cerebral HbO2 slope correlated to BV slope in Phase I and II, but it only correlated to HHb slope in Phase II. The occurrence time of inflection points correlated to SWS latencies. Initial decrease of brain perfusion with decreased blood volume (BV) and oxygenated hemoglobin (HbO2) together with increasing muscular BV fit thermoregulation process at sleep onset. The uncorrelated and correlated slopes of HbO2 and deoxygenated hemoglobin indicate different mechanisms underlying the biphasic hemodynamic process in light sleep and slow wave sleep (SWS). In SWS, changes in vasomotor activity (i.e., increased vasodilatation) may mediate increasing cerebral and muscular BV. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  6. Bedrock geology of snyderville basin: Structural geology techniques applied to understanding the hydrogeology of a rapidly developing region, Summit County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keighley, K.E.; Yonkee, W.A.; Ashland, F.X.; Evans, J.P.

    1997-01-01

    The availability of ground water is a problem for many communities throughout the west. As these communities continue to experience growth, the initial allocation of ground water supplies proves inadequate and may force restrictions on existing, and future, development plans. Much of this new growth relies on ground water supplies extracted from fractured bedrock aquifers. An example of a community faced with this problem is western Summit County, near Park City, Utah, This area has experienced significant water shortages coupled with a 50% growth rate in the past 10-15 years. Recent housing development rests directly on complexly deformed Triassic to Jurassic sedimentary rocks in the hanging wall of the Mount Raymond-Absaroka thrust system. The primary fractured bedrock aquifers are the Nugget Sandstone, and limestones in the Thaynes and Twin Creek Formations. Ground water production and management strategies can be improved if the geometry of the structures and the flow properties of the fractured and folded bedrock can be established. We characterize the structures that may influence ground water flow at two sites: the Pinebrook and Summit Park subdivisions, which demonstrate abrupt changes (less than 1 mi/1.6 km) within the hydrogeologic systems. Geologic mapping at scales of 1:4500 (Pinebrook) and 1:9600 (Summit Park), scanline fracture mapping at the outcrop scale, geologic cross sections, water well data, and structural analysis, provides a clearer picture of the hydrogeologic setting of the aquifers in this region, and has been used to successfully site wells. In the Pinebrook area, the dominate map-scale structures of the area is the Twomile Canyon anticline, a faulted box-like to conical anticline. Widely variable bedding orientations suggest that the fold is segmented and is non-cylindrical and conical on the western limb with a fold axis that plunges to the northwest and also to the southeast, and forms a box-type fold between the middle and eastern

  7. Global Warming Blame the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Calder, N

    1997-01-01

    Concern about climate change reaches a political peak at a UN conference in Kyoto, 1-10 December, but behind the scenes the science is in turmoil. A challenge to the hypothesis that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming comes from the discovery that cosmic rays from the Galaxy are involved in making clouds (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). During the 20th Century the wind from the Sun has grown stronger and the count of cosmic rays has diminished. With fewer clouds, the EarthÕs surface has warmed up. This surprising mechanism explains the link between the Sun and climate change that astronomers and geophysicists have suspected for 200 years.

  8. Hydrological consequences of global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, Norman L.

    2009-06-01

    The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is strong evidence that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide far exceeds the natural range over the last 650,000 years, and this recent warming of the climate system is unequivocal, resulting in more frequent extreme precipitation events, earlier snowmelt runoff, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. The effects of recent warming has been well documented and climate model projections indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99 percent) of occurring with significant to severe consequences in response to a warmer lower atmosphere with an accelerating hydrologic cycle.

  9. PR Software: Warm Water Energie met grafieken

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanis, J.; Verstappen-Boerekamp, J.

    1999-01-01

    Het computerprogramma Warm Water Energie (WWE) berekent het verbruik van (warm) water, energie en reinigingsmiddelen bij de melkwinning. De nieuwste versie bevat grafieken die in één oogopslag de productie en het verbruik van warm water weergeven. In de overzichtelijke rapportage staan nu ook de

  10. Economic Theory and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2003-08-01

    Hirofumi Uzawa's theoretical framework addresses three major problems concerning global warming and other environmental hazards. First, it considers all phenomena involved with global environmental issues that exhibit externalities of one kind or another. Secondly, it covers global environmental issues involving international and intergenerational equity and justice. Lastly, it deals with global environmental issues concerning the management of the atmosphere, the oceans, water, soil, and other natural resources having to be decided by a consensus of affected countries.

  11. Early Onset of Industrial-Era Warming Across the Oceans and Continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abram, N.; McGregor, H. V.; Tierney, J. E.; Evans, M. N.; McKay, N.; Kaufman, D. S.; Pages 2k Consortium*, T.

    2016-12-01

    The evolution of industrial-era warming provides critical context for future climate change, and has fundamental importance for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Palaeoclimate data from the Common Era - a period when natural and anthropogenic climate forcings are reasonably well constrained - provide valuable perspectives on anthropogenic greenhouse warming, but have focused mainly on the Northern Hemisphere using records derived primarily from terrestrial settings. Given the importance of the oceans in determining the pace and regional structure of climate changes, it is essential to extend our palaeoclimate assessments to determine how regional-scale warming developed in the oceans and over land during the Industrial Era. Here we use post-1500CE palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-19th Century, and was near-synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-19th Century, and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change, and in some regions 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial variability. *PAGES 2k Consortium authors are: Kaustubh Thirumalai, Belen Martrat, Hugues Goosse, Steven J. Phipps, Eric J. Steig, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Casey P. Saenger, Jens Zinke, Guillaume Leduc, Jason A. Addison, P. Graham Mortyn, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, Kandasamy Selvaraj, Helena L. Filipsson, Raphael

  12. The Discovery of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCracken, Michael C.

    2004-07-01

    At the beginning of the twentieth century, the prospect of ``global warming'' as a result of human activities was thought to be far off, and in any case, likely to be beneficial. As we begin the twenty-first century, science adviser to the British government, Sir David King, has said that he considers global warming to be the world's most important problem, including terrorism. Yet, dealing with it has become the subject of a contentious international protocol, numerous conferences of international diplomats, and major scientific assessments and research programs. Spencer Weart, who is director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, has taken on the challenge of explaining how this came to be. In the tradition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established in 1988 to evaluate and assess the state of global warming science, this book is roughly equivalent to the Technical Summary, in terms of its technical level, being quite readable, but with substantive content about the main lines of evidence. Underpinning this relatively concise presentation, there is a well-developed-and still developing-Web site that, like the detailed chapters of the full IPCC assessment reports, provides vastly more information and linkages to a much wider set of reference materials (see http://www.aip.org/history/climate).

  13. Operational accuracy and comparative persistent antigenicity of HRP2 rapid diagnostic tests for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in a hyperendemic region of Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Odong George W

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Parasite-based diagnosis of malaria by microscopy requires laboratory skills that are generally unavailable at peripheral health facilities. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs require less expertise, but accuracy under operational conditions has not been fully evaluated in Uganda. There are also concerns about RDTs that use the antigen histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2 to detect Plasmodium falciparum, because this antigen can persist after effective treatment, giving false positive test results in the absence of infection. An assessment of the accuracy of Malaria Pf™ immuno-chromatographic test (ICT and description of persistent antigenicity of HRP2 RDTs was undertaken in a hyperendemic area of Uganda. Methods Using a cross-sectional design, a total of 357 febrile patients of all ages were tested using ICT, and compared to microscopy as the gold standard reference. Two independent RDT readings were used to assess accuracy and inter-observer reliability. With a longitudinal design to describe persistent antigenicity of ICT and Paracheck, 224 children aged 6–59 months were followed up at 7-day intervals until the HRP2 antigens where undetectable by the RDTs. Results Of the 357 patients tested during the cross-sectional component, 40% (139 had positive blood smears for asexual forms of P. falciparum. ICT had an overall sensitivity of 98%, a specificity of 72%, a negative predictive value (NPV of 98% and a positive predictive value (PPV of 69%. ICT showed a high inter-observer reliability under operational conditions, with 95% of readings having assigned the same results (kappa statistics 0.921, p In children followed up after successful antimalaria treatment, the mean duration of persistent antigenicity was 32 days, and this duration varied significantly depending on pre-treatment parasitaemia. In patients with parasite density >50,000/μl, the mean duration of persistent antigenicity was 37 days compared to 26 days for parasitaemia

  14. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Two degrees global warming above the pre-industrial level has been suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This '2 degree' threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass-redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. We demonstrate that by 2040 with two degree warming under the RCP8.5 scenario more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. If warming continues above two degree, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  15. Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

    2017-07-01

    Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

  16. Rapid Increase in Ownership and Use of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets and Decrease in Prevalence of Malaria in Three Regional States of Ethiopia (2006-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Estifanos Biru Shargie

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Following recent large scale-up of malaria control interventions in Ethiopia, this study aimed to compare ownership and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN, and the change in malaria prevalence using two population-based household surveys in three regions of the country. Each survey used multistage cluster random sampling with 25 households per cluster. Household net ownership tripled from 19.6% in 2006 to 68.4% in 2007, with mean LLIN per household increasing from 0.3 to 1.2. Net use overall more than doubled from 15.3% to 34.5%, but in households owning LLIN, use declined from 71.7% to 48.3%. Parasitemia declined from 4.1% to 0.4%. Large scale-up of net ownership over a short period of time was possible. However, a large increase in net ownership was not necessarily mirrored directly by increased net use. Better targeting of nets to malaria-risk areas and sustained behavioural change communication are needed to increase and maintain net use.

  17. Recent high mountain rockfalls and warm daily temperature extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, S. K.; Huggel, C.

    2012-04-01

    Linkages between longer term warming of the climate, related changes in the cryosphere, and destabilisation of high mountain rockwalls have been documented in several studies. Although understanding is far from complete, a range of physical processes related to longer term warming are understood to have an effect on slope stability. More recently, some attention has turned to the possible influence of much shorter periods of extremely warm temperatures, as a contributing factor, or even trigger of slope failures. So far, studies have not extended beyond highlighting one or a few individual events, and no common approach to quantifying the 'extremity' of the prevailing temperatures has been used. In the current study, we integrate established practices used in the climatology community in the analyses of climate extremes, together with an inventory of ca. 20 recent rock failures (1987 - 2010) in the central European Alps, to assess temporal relationships between daily air temperature extremes and rock failure occurrence. Using data from three high elevation recording sites across Switzerland, we focus on daily maximum temperatures in the 4 weeks immediately prior to each rockfall occurrence, where an extremely warm day is defined as exceeding the 95th percentile during the climatological reference period of 1971 - 2000. The 95th percentile is calculated in a 21 day moving window, so that extreme temperatures are considered relative to the time of year, and not on an annual basis. In addition, rock failures from the Southern Alps of New Zealand are analysed, although high elevation climate data are limited from this region. Results from the European Alps show that a majority of recent slope failures have been preceded by one or more extreme, unseasonably warm days, most notably in the week immediately prior to the failure. For example, for 9 slope failures in the Valais - Mt Blanc region (based on Grand St Bernhard climate data), 6 were proceeded by extremely warm

  18. Susceptibility of Permafrost Soil Organic Carbon under Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Liang, L.; Graham, D. E.; Gu, B.

    2015-12-01

    Degradation of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has been stored in permafrost is a key concern under warming climate because it could provide a positive feedback. Studies and conceptual models suggest that SOC degradation is largely controlled by the decomposability of SOC, but it is unclear exactly what portions of SOC are susceptible to rapid breakdown and what mechanisms may be involved in SOC degradation. Using a suite of analytical techniques, we examined the dynamic consumption and production of labile SOC compounds, including sugars, alcohols, and small molecular weight organic acids in incubation experiments (up to 240 days at either -2 or 8 °C) with a tundra soil under anoxic conditions, where SOC respiration and iron(III) reduction were monitored. We observe that sugars and alcohols are main components in SOC accounting for initial rapid release of CO2 and CH4 through anaerobic fermentation, whereas the fermentation products such as acetate and formate are subsequently utilized as primary substrates for methanogenesis. Iron(III) reduction is correlated to acetate production and methanogenesis, suggesting its important roles as an electron acceptor in tundra SOC respiration. These observations corroborate strongly with the glucose addition during incubation, in which rapid CO2 and CH4 production is observed concurrently with rapid production and consumption of organics such as acetate. Thus, the biogeochemical processes we document here are pertinent to understanding the accelerated SOC decomposition with temperature and could provide basis for model predicting feedbacks to climate warming in the Arctic.

  19. Does the projected pathway to global warming targets matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav

    2018-02-01

    Since the ‘Paris agreement’ in 2015 there has been much focus on what a +1.5 °C or +2 °C warmer world would look like. Since the focus lies on policy relevant global warming targets, or specific warming levels (SWLs), rather than a specific point in time, projections are pooled together to form SWL ensembles based on the target temperature rather than emission scenario. This study uses an ensemble of CMIP5 global model projections to analyse how well SWL ensembles represent the stabilized climate of global warming targets. The results show that the SWL ensembles exhibit significant trends that reflect the transient nature of the RCP scenarios. These trends have clear effect on the timing and clustering of monthly cold and hot extremes, even though the effect on the temperature of the extreme months is less visible. In many regions there is a link between choice of RCP scenario used in the SWL ensemble and climate change signal in the highest monthly temperatures. In other regions there is no such clear-cut link. From this we conclude that comprehensive analyses of what prospects the different global warming targets bring about will require stabilization scenarios. Awaiting such targeted scenarios we suggest that prudent use of SWL scenarios, taking their characteristics and limitations into account, may serve as reasonable proxies in many situations.

  20. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

  1. Rapid Prototyping

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Javelin, a Lone Peak Engineering Inc. Company has introduced the SteamRoller(TM) System as a commercial product. The system was designed by Javelin during a Phase II NASA funded small commercial product. The purpose of the invention was to allow automated-feed of flexible ceramic tapes to the Laminated Object Manufacturing rapid prototyping equipment. The ceramic material that Javelin was working with during the Phase II project is silicon nitride. This engineered ceramic material is of interest for space-based component.

  2. Rapid generation of sub-type, region-specific neurons and neural networks from human pluripotent stem cell-derived neurospheres

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aynun N. Begum

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Stem cell-based neuronal differentiation has provided a unique opportunity for disease modeling and regenerative medicine. Neurospheres are the most commonly used neuroprogenitors for neuronal differentiation, but they often clump in culture, which has always represented a challenge for neurodifferentiation. In this study, we report a novel method and defined culture conditions for generating sub-type or region-specific neurons from human embryonic and induced pluripotent stem cells derived neurosphere without any genetic manipulation. Round and bright-edged neurospheres were generated in a supplemented knockout serum replacement medium (SKSRM with 10% CO2, which doubled the expression of the NESTIN, PAX6 and FOXG1 genes compared with those cultured with 5% CO2. Furthermore, an additional step (AdSTEP was introduced to fragment the neurospheres and facilitate the formation of a neuroepithelial-type monolayer that we termed the “neurosphederm”. The large neural tube-type rosette (NTTR structure formed from the neurosphederm, and the NTTR expressed higher levels of the PAX6, SOX2 and NESTIN genes compared with the neuroectoderm-derived neuroprogenitors. Different layers of cortical, pyramidal, GABAergic, glutamatergic, cholinergic neurons appeared within 27 days using the neurosphederm, which is a shorter period than in traditional neurodifferentiation-protocols (42–60 days. With additional supplements and timeline dopaminergic and Purkinje neurons were also generated in culture too. Furthermore, our in vivo results indicated that the fragmented neurospheres facilitated significantly better neurogenesis in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID mouse brains compared with the non-fragmented neurospheres. Therefore, this neurosphere-based neurodifferentiation protocol is a valuable tool for studies of neurodifferentiation, neuronal transplantation and high throughput screening assays.

  3. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  4. CFC Destruction of Ozone - Major Cause of Recent Global Warming!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, R. A.

    2008-12-01

    There has been a lot of discussion about global warming. Some say anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused the earth to warm. Others say there is no abnormality at all, that it is just natural warming. As you will see from the data presented and analyzed, a greater than normal warming did occur in recent times but no measurements confirm an increase in CO2, whether anthropogenic or natural, had any effect on global temperatures. There is however, strong evidence that anthropogenic emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were the major cause of the recent abnormal warming. CFCs have created both unnatural atmospheric cooling and warming based on these facts: CFCs have destroyed ozone in the lower stratosphere/ upper troposphere causing these zones in the atmosphere to cool 1.37°C from 1966 to 1998. This time span was selected to eliminate the effect of the natural solar irradiance (cooling-warming) cycle effect on the earth's temperature. The loss of ozone allowed more UV light to pass through the stratosphere at a sufficient rate to warm the lower troposphere plus 8-3/4" of the earth by 0.48°C (1966 to 1998). Mass and energy balances show that the energy that was absorbed in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere hit the lower troposphere/earth at a sustainable level of 1.69 × 10 18 Btu more in 1998 than it did in 1966. Greater ozone depletion in the Polar Regions has caused these areas to warm some two and one-half (2 1/2) times that of the average earth temperature -1.2°C versus 0.48°C. This has caused permafrost to melt, which is releasing copious quantities of methane, estimated at 100 times that of manmade CO2 release, to the atmosphere. Methane in the atmosphere slowly converts to CO2 and water vapor and its release has contributed to higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. There is a temperature anomaly in Antarctica. The Signey Island landmass further north, warmed like the rest of the Polar Regions; but south at Vostok, there has

  5. School-based surveys of malaria in Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia: a rapid survey method for malaria in low transmission settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pullan Rachel L

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Ethiopia, malaria transmission is seasonal and unstable, with both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax endemic. Such spatial and temporal clustering of malaria only serves to underscore the importance of regularly collecting up-to-date malaria surveillance data to inform decision-making in malaria control. Cross-sectional school-based malaria surveys were conducted across Oromia Regional State to generate up-to-date data for planning malaria control interventions, as well as monitoring and evaluation of operational programme implementation. Methods Two hundred primary schools were randomly selected using a stratified and weighted sampling frame; 100 children aged five to 18 years were then randomly chosen within each school. Surveys were carried out in May 2009 and from October to December 2009, to coincide with the peak of malaria transmission in different parts of Oromia. Each child was tested for malaria by expert microscopy, their haemoglobin measured and a simple questionnaire completed. Satellite-derived environmental data were used to assess ecological correlates of Plasmodium infection; Bayesian geostatistical methods and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic were employed to investigate spatial heterogeneity. Results A total 20,899 children from 197 schools provided blood samples, two selected schools were inaccessible and one school refused to participate. The overall prevalence of Plasmodium infection was found to be 0.56% (95% CI: 0.46-0.67%, with 53% of infections due to P. falciparum and 47% due to P. vivax. Of children surveyed, 17.6% (95% CI: 17.0-18.1% were anaemic, while 46% reported sleeping under a mosquito net the previous night. Malaria was found at 30 (15% schools to a maximum elevation of 2,187 metres, with school-level Plasmodium prevalence ranging between 0% and 14.5%. Although environmental variables were only weakly associated with P. falciparum and P. vivax infection, clusters of infection

  6. Antarctic shelf warming under climate change: Insights from eddying climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goddard, Paul; Dufour, Carolina O.; Yin, Jianjun; Griffies, Stephen M.; Winton, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Ocean warming around the Antarctic Ice Sheet has important implications for ice sheet mass loss and global sea level rise. Understanding the ocean processes responsible for Antarctic shelf warming is thus critical to improve climate projections. Several recent studies have pointed out the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in bringing heat onto the shelf with a focus on specific regions, such as the Western Antarctic Peninsula. However, we still lack a more general picture of ocean warming over the whole Antarctic shelf region and a detailed analysis of the response of heat transport to climate change. In this study, we present an analysis of the response of ocean heat transport at the Antarctic shelf break to climate change, and we address the role of mesoscale eddies in this transport. To do so, we use two eddying climate models of different resolutions in the ocean (0.25° and 0.10°) each run under a preindustrial forcing scenario and a climate change forcing scenario. Analyses of the heat transport across the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) are carried out with a decomposition of the transport into its time-mean and eddy components. Heat budgets over the shelf region are also performed to investigate the role of other processes (e.g. surface fluxes) in shelf warming. Finally, the Antarctic shelf region is divided into several sub-regions to examine geographical variations in the warming. We find that the shelf regions warm under climate change due to a combination of warmer atmospheric temperatures, a large reduction of sea ice coverage, increased heat transport across the ASF or increased freshening at the surface. We discuss the impact of each of these factors on shelf warming in the different regions, as well as the contribution of mesoscale eddies to this warming.

  7. Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

  8. Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdun, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both

  9. GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AMERICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PATRICK PATERSON

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming presents one of the most serious threats to South American nations. Countries in the region are at risk of a variety of climate change related problems: rising sea levels, diminishing potable water supplies, forest res, intense storms and ooding, heat waves and the spread of diseases. These disasters are occurring more frequently in the region and will likely increase in intensity also. The armed forces in the region are the only government departments with both the capacity and the manpower to respond to these massive catastrophes. Military support to civilian authorities will be required more frequently and under more severe conditions as climate change conditions worsen.

  10. Global warming: knowledge and views of Iranian students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdanparast, Taraneh; Salehpour, Sousan; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Seyedmehdi, Seyed Mohammad; Boyes, Eddie; Stanisstreet, Martin; Attarchi, Mirsaeed

    2013-04-06

    Study of students' knowledge about global warming can help authorities to have better imagination of this critical environmental problem. This research examines high school students' ideas about greenhouse effect and the results may be useful for the respective authorities to improve cultural and educational aspects of next generation. In this cross-sectional study, a 42 question questionnaire with mix of open and closed questions was used to evaluate high school students' view about the mechanism, consequences, causes and cures of global warming. To assess students' knowledge, cognitive score was also calculated. 1035 students were randomly selected from 19 educational districts of Tehran. Sampling method was multi stage. Only 5.1% of the students could explain greenhouse effect correctly and completely. 88.8% and 71.2% respectively believed "if the greenhouse effect gets bigger the Earth will get hotter" and "incidence of more skin cancers is a consequence of global warming". 69.6% and 68.8% respectively thought "the greenhouse effect is made worse by too much carbon dioxide" and "presence of ozone holes is a cause of greenhouse effect". 68.4% believed "not using cars so much is a cure for global warming". While a student's 'cognitive score' could range from -36 to +36, Students' mean cognitive score was equal to +1.64. Mean cognitive score of male students and grade 2 & 3 students was respectively higher than female ones (P<0.01) and grade 1 students (P<0.001) but there was no statistically significant difference between students of different regions (P>0.05). In general, students' knowledge about global warming was not acceptable and there were some misconceptions in the students' mind, such as supposing ozone holes as a cause and more skin cancer as a consequence of global warming. The Findings of this survey indicate that, this important stratum of society have been received no sufficient and efficient education and sensitization on this matter.

  11. Investigation of Health Risks and Their Prevention in the Rapid Climate Changes and the Rise of Pollution of the Atmosphere in the Mountain Region of the North Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babyakin, Alexander; Polozkov, Igor; Golitsyn, Georgy; Efimenko, Natalia; Zherlitsina, Liubov; Povolotskaya, Nina; Senik, Irina; Chalaya, Elena; Artamonova, Maria; Pogarski, Fedor

    2010-05-01

    The current global climate change is determined by changes in the structure of weather conditions, whose impact on the health of various regions of the planet has not been studied sufficiently. To study this effect on the low-altitude mountains resort of Kislovodsk (southern Russia) multi-factor assessment of the impact of the environment on human health is carried out. There were taking in account atmosphere condition, atmospheric aerosol pollution relationship with atmospheric circulation, the level of pollution matching with different types of weather, and, on the base of analysis of meteopathic reactions (MPR), the extent of their biotropism was revealed. Two sides of weather-climatic influences - specific and nonspecific - are interconnected. They manifest themselves differently in humans with different levels of regulation of vital activity and the adaptive capacity of the organism to the complex environmental effects. This complicates the precise physiological basis of quantitative criteria for the prediction of "biotropic" (adverse) weathers. Nevertheless, clinical observations have shown the existence of the "limiting" physiological bound on the size of medical-meteorological modules (MMM). The reactions of the organism to unfavorable weather factors on the results of a questionnaire monitoring surveillance of patients treated in clinics of Federal State Institution "Pyatigorsk State Research Institute of Curortology, FMBA of Russia" (PSRIC), in comparison with clinical data, have identified various MPR of the organism, the clinical manifestation of which depends on age, sex of the patient, the availability of principal and attendant pathology, reactivity, etc. Analysis of the results of clinical observation, cases of medical aid appealability to the station an ambulance at the sudden ill health, as well as the uptake of advice of sick people among immigrants during their short stay at the resort, and the local population, allowed the first approximation

  12. Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

    2015-02-01

    Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

  13. Cutaneous warming promotes sleep onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymann, Roy J E M; Swaab, Dick F; Van Someren, Eus J W

    2005-06-01

    Sleep occurs in close relation to changes in body temperature. Both the monophasic sleep period in humans and the polyphasic sleep periods in rodents tend to be initiated when core body temperature is declining. This decline is mainly due to an increase in skin blood flow and consequently skin warming and heat loss. We have proposed that these intrinsically occurring changes in core and skin temperatures could modulate neuronal activity in sleep-regulating brain areas (Van Someren EJW, Chronobiol Int 17: 313-54, 2000). We here provide results compatible with this hypothesis. We obtained 144 sleep-onset latencies while directly manipulating core and skin temperatures within the comfortable range in eight healthy subjects under controlled conditions. The induction of a proximal skin temperature difference of only 0.78 +/- 0.03 degrees C (mean +/- SE) around a mean of 35.13 +/- 0.11 degrees C changed sleep-onset latency by 26%, i.e., by 3.09 minutes [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.91 to 4.28] around a mean of 11.85 min (CI, 9.74 to 14.41), with faster sleep onsets when the proximal skin was warmed. The reduction in sleep-onset latency occurred despite a small but significant decrease in subjective comfort during proximal skin warming. The induction of changes in core temperature (delta = 0.20 +/- 0.02 degrees C) and distal skin temperature (delta = 0.74 +/- 0.05 degrees C) were ineffective. Previous studies have demonstrated correlations between skin temperature and sleep-onset latency. Also, sleep disruption by ambient temperatures that activate thermoregulatory defense mechanisms has been shown. The present study is the first to experimentally demonstrate a causal contribution to sleep-onset latency of skin temperature manipulations within the normal nocturnal fluctuation range. Circadian and sleep-appetitive behavior-induced variations in skin temperature might act as an input signal to sleep-regulating systems.

  14. Cosmic Rays and Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Sloan, T.; Wolfendale, A W

    2007-01-01

    It has been claimed by others that observed temporal correlations of terrestrial cloud cover with `the cosmic ray intensity' are causal. The possibility arises, therefore, of a connection between cosmic rays and Global Warming. If true, the implications would be very great. We have examined this claim to look for evidence to corroborate it. So far we have not found any and so our tentative conclusions are to doubt it. Such correlations as appear are more likely to be due to the small variatio...

  15. [Medical consequences of global warming].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swynghedauw, Bernard

    2009-04-01

    The global warming of the planet and its anthropogenic origin are no longer debatable. Nevertheless, from a medical point of view, while the epidemiological consequences of the warming are rather well-known, the biological consequences are still poorly documented. This is a good example of evolutionary (or darwinian) medicine. The research strategy of this systematic review is based on both PubMed during the period of 2000-2007 and several reviews articles for the period >2000. From a medical point of view, there are four types of consequences. 1-The simple elevation of the average external temperature is accompanied by an increased global mortality and morbidity, the mortality/external temperature is a J curve, with the warm branch more pronounced than the cold one. A recent study on 50 different cities had confirmed that global, and more specifically cardiovascular mortalities were enhanced at the two extreme of the temperatures. 2-The acute heatwaves, such as that which happened in France in August 2003, have been studied in detail by several groups. The mortality which was observed during the recent heatwaves was not compensated by harvesting, strongly suggesting that we were dealing with heat stroke, and that such an increased mortality was more reflecting the limits of our adaptational capacities than aggravation of a previously altered health status. 3-Climate changes have modified the repartition and virulence of pathogenic agents (dengue, malaria...) and above all their vectors. Such modifications were exponential and are likely to reflect the biological properties of parasites. 4-Indirect consequences of global warming include variations in the hydraulic cycle, the new form of tropical hurricanes and many different changes affecting both biodiversity and ecosystems. They will likely result in an increased level of poverty. These finding gave rise to several basic biological questions, rarely evoked, and that concern the limits of the adaptational

  16. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  17. Quadrupole magnet for a rapid cycling synchrotron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Witte, H. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Berg, J. S. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    2015-05-03

    Rapid Cycling Synchrotrons (RCS) feature interleaved warm and cold dipole magnets; the field of the warm magnets is used to modulate the average bending field depending on the particle energy. It has been shown that RCS can be an attractive option for fast acceleration of particles, for example, muons, which decay quickly. In previous studies it was demonstrated that in principle warm dipole magnets can be designed which can provide the required ramp rates, which are equivalent to frequencies of about 1 kHz. To reduce the losses it is beneficial to employ two separate materials for the yoke; it was also shown that by employing an optimized excitation coil geometry the eddy current losses are acceptable. In this paper we show that the same principles can be applied to quadrupole magnets targeting 30 T/m with a repetition rate of 1kHz and good field quality.

  18. Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham

    2011-05-01

    Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.

  19. Population growth and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, R.V.

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming – the oral contraceptive pill. PMID:25478068

  20. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Root, Terry L.; Price, Jeff T.; Hall, Kimberly R.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Pounds, J. Alan

    2003-01-01

    Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6°C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or `fingerprint', in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.

  1. Using historical and experimental data to reveal warming effects on ant assemblages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Resasco

    Full Text Available Historical records of species are compared with current records to elucidate effects of recent climate change. However, confounding variables such as succession, land-use change, and species invasions make it difficult to demonstrate a causal link between changes in biota and changes in climate. Experiments that manipulate temperature can overcome this issue of attribution, but long-term impacts of warming are difficult to test directly. Here we combine historical and experimental data to explore effects of warming on ant assemblages in southeastern US. Observational data span a 35-year period (1976-2011, during which mean annual temperatures had an increasing trend. Mean summer temperatures in 2010-2011 were ∼ 2.7 °C warmer than in 1976. Experimental data come from an ongoing study in the same region, for which temperatures have been increased ∼ 1.5-5.5 °C above ambient from 2010 to 2012. Ant species richness and evenness decreased with warming under natural but not experimental warming. These discrepancies could have resulted from differences in timescales of warming, abiotic or biotic factors, or initial species pools. Species turnover tended to increase with temperature in observational and experimental datasets. At the species level, the observational and experimental datasets had four species in common, two of which exhibited consistent patterns between datasets. With natural and experimental warming, collections of the numerically dominant, thermophilic species, Crematogaster lineolata, increased roughly two-fold. Myrmecina americana, a relatively heat intolerant species, decreased with temperature in natural and experimental warming. In contrast, species in the Solenopsis molesta group did not show consistent responses to warming, and Temenothorax pergandei was rare across temperatures. Our results highlight the difficulty of interpreting community responses to warming based on historical records or experiments alone. Because some

  2. Warming in the Yukon River Basin is Likely to Release Substantial Amounts of Soil Organic Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juday, G. P.; Huntington, T. G.

    2005-12-01

    In recent decades the Yukon River Basin (YRB) in northwestern Canada and central Alaska has experienced a substantial warming trend resulting in a variety of geophysical and biological responses. Climatologic measurements consistent with rapid warming in the YRB during the last several decades of the 20th century include surface air temperature (especially daily minima), number of frost-free days, and the number of very warm days. During the 20th century daily maxima in the warm season in the YRB have increased only weakly, and modest autumn cooling occurred. Indirect indicators of warming include shrinkage in lake area, decreases in glacier mass, increased fire frequency and annual area burned, and changes in permafrost thickness and permafrost temperature. Changes in tree growth rates and susceptibility to pests have been related to warming and drying in interior Alaska. Oral histories of Alaska Natives have also revealed many other warming related changes in the YRB. If ongoing warming trends continue there is a concern that large stores of soil organic carbon (SOC) will be at risk for release to the atmosphere through heterotrophic decomposition. Warming tends to accelerate microbial decomposition at a faster rate than net primary productivity. One of the most important effects of warming in the YRB is likely to be its influence on the hydrologic and cryospheric regimes. Warming may be accompanied by soil drying and lowering of the water table in wetlands and lakes exposing more SOC to aerobic decomposition. A substantial portion of the YRB is underlain by permafrost that thaws to a variable depth (active layer) each summer. Increasing the thickness of the active layer exposes more SOC to microbial decomposition. Increasing the burned area results in direct SOC losses by oxidation during the fire and decreases albedo that warms surface soils and increases the thickness of the active layer. Warming and increasing length of the growing season increases seasonal

  3. Natural resource management: implications for global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, S. (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA (USA))

    1990-01-01

    The opportunities offered by the global warming alert for global natural resource management are reviewed. The author systematically introduced a new discipline of managing risks involved in local large scale climatic swings which is based on international and interdisciplinary transfer of knowledge, benefiting citizens of industrialized nations, the industrializing nations, as well as the developing nations. Several programs to utilize the opportunities are outlined, including (A) the monitoring of increased availability of forest land in the circumpolar subarctic area, (B) the deployment of biologically engineered reforestation methods and (C) the production of grain-based and wood based liquid fuel and plastic feedstock to tackle the new energy crisis. Policies must represent collective wisdom in the socio-economic as well as scientific contexts. Newly industralized countries must take into account the existing energy politics which affects energy economics and energy and material security. The paramount importance of the ability to use thermodynamically sound technologies and technologies that are based on renewable resources is to be recognized. The choice of technology must be based on the technology's material and energy efficiency. The basic philosophy of cooperation between nations and coordination of activities to improve resource management in the long term must be based on a responsibility system applicable internationally, and an understanding of resource management that can be translated into policy action. Transboundary environmental and economic development problems are best solved regionally by a regional band of nations. 30 refs.

  4. Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

    2017-02-01

    The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

  5. Tree water dynamics in a drying and warming world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossiord, Charlotte; Sevanto, Sanna; Borrego, Isaac; Chan, Allison M; Collins, Adam D; Dickman, Lee T; Hudson, Patrick J; McBranch, Natalie; Michaletz, Sean T; Pockman, William T; Ryan, Max; Vilagrosa, Alberto; McDowell, Nate G

    2017-09-01

    Disentangling the relative impacts of precipitation reduction and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on plant water dynamics and determining whether acclimation may influence these patterns in the future is an important challenge. Here, we report sap flux density (FD ), stomatal conductance (Gs ), hydraulic conductivity (KL ) and xylem anatomy in piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) trees subjected to five years of precipitation reduction, atmospheric warming (elevated VPD) and their combined effects. No acclimation occurred under precipitation reduction: lower Gs and FD were found for both species compared to ambient conditions. Warming reduced the sensibility of stomata to VPD for both species but resulted in the maintenance of Gs and FD to ambient levels only for piñon. For juniper, reduced soil moisture under warming negated benefits of stomatal adjustments and resulted in reduced FD , Gs and KL . Although reduced stomatal sensitivity to VPD also occurred under combined stresses, reductions in Gs , FD and KL took place to similar levels as under single stresses for both species. Our results show that stomatal conductance adjustments to high VPD could minimize but not entirely prevent additive effects of warming and drying on water use and carbon acquisition of trees in semi-arid regions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Sustainable construction in remote cold regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The goal of this project was to identify sustainable construction techniques appropriate for remote and cold regions, some of which apply to : operations and maintenance as well. The vast body of literature regarding green construction in warm region...

  7. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-20

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  8. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-07

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  9. Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.

    2016-12-01

    Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

  10. Global warming reduces plant reproductive output for temperate multi-inflorescence species on the Tibetan plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yinzhan; Mu, Junpeng; Niklas, Karl J; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

    2012-07-01

    • Temperature is projected to increase more during the winter than during the summer in cold regions. The effects of winter warming on reproductive effort have not been examined for temperate plant species. • Here, we report the results of experimentally induced seasonal winter warming (0.4 and 2.4°C increases in growing and nongrowing seasons, respectively, using warmed and ambient open-top chambers in a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow) for nine indeterminate-growing species producing multiple (single-flowered or multi-flowered) inflorescences and three determinate-growing species producing single inflorescences after a 3-yr period of warming. • Warming reduced significantly flower number and seed production per plant for all nine multi-inflorescence species, but not for the three single-inflorescence species. Warming had an insignificant effect on the fruit to flower number ratio, seed size and seed number per fruit among species. The reduction in seed production was largely attributable to the decline in flower number per plant. The flowering onset time was unaffected for nine of the 12 species. Therefore, the decline in flower production and seed production in response to winter warming probably reflects a physiological response (e.g. metabolic changes associated with flower production). • Collectively, the data indicate that global warming may reduce flower and seed production for temperate herbaceous species and will probably have a differential effect on single- vs multi-inflorescence species. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

  11. GLOBAL WARMING BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLITICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugen Străuțiu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last three decades, the scientific theory of global warming has become a political ideology. Significant political components are found both in the premises and (especially in the consequences. But witnessed also at least a decade of negationism: global warming research programs are questionable regarding methodology and the ethics of research. Face to all contestations, “Global warming theory” has already become “Global climate change theory”. It is true that global warming ideology preparing a global governing over a strictly limited number of people?

  12. Recent warming in the San Francisco Bay and the California coastal ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yi; Farrara, John; Zhang, Carrie

    2017-05-01

    During 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted through the middle of 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 meters of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0-100 m) temperature variability in the extra-tropical eastern Pacific. Observations in the suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west and later indicate a warming influence that propagates from south to north into the region associated with the 2015-16 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0-100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System hindcast simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supports the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured-grid numerical model simulation suggests that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originates in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagates through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raise the possibility that such warming events may be predictable several months in advance.

  13. Global Warming and the Combatant Commander: Engaging the Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-10-23

    negatively affected Earth’s natural greenhouse heating mechanism. Most believe the distributed excess of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions into...in Earth’s temperature will further melt Arctic glaciers , increase precipitation, and intensify river runoff totals. As a result, more freshwater...Territory, and Oil Exploration The United States and seven other countries (Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Iceland , Sweden, and Finland,) known

  14. Shrub expansion in SW Greenland under modest regional warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rasmus Halfdan; Meilby, Henrik; Kollmann, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Shrub expansion has been observed widely in tundra areas across the Arctic. This phenomenon has been partially attributed to increasing temperatures over the past century. However, relationships among shrub expansion, grazing, and human disturbance have been studied little. SW Greenland is a suba...

  15. Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Shusaku; Hanawa, Kimio; Watanabe, Tomowo; Suga, Toshio; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2017-09-01

    Over the past six decades, the subtropical surface ocean has warmed at rates close to those of global mean surface ocean temperature except in western boundary current regions where the surface warming is locally enhanced by a factor of two. Changes in the subsurface ocean, however, remain unclear because of lack of data. Compiling historical temperature measurements--some available for the first time--here we show that the subtropical mode water has warmed over the past six decades in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The rate of the warming is twice as large in the mode waters than at the surface. Subtropical mode waters are important water masses of vertically uniform temperature that are a few hundred metres thick and distributed widely in the main thermocline of the subtropical oceans. The enhanced warming of subtropical mode waters can be traced back to the surface warming in the formation regions along the western boundary current extensions. Furthermore, we detect increased temperature stratification and decreased dissolved oxygen in the subtropical mode waters. The latter change has clear implications for predicting biogeochemical responses to climate warming.

  16. Automobility: Global Warming as Symptomatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Backhaus

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The argument of this paper is that sustainability requires a new worldview-paradigm. It critically evaluates Gore’s liberal-based environmentalism in order to show how “shallow ecologies” are called into question by deeper ecologies. This analysis leads to the notion that global warming is better understood as a symptom indicative of the worldview that is the source for environmental crises. Heidegger’s ontological hermeneutics and its critique of modern technology show that the modern worldview involves an enframing (a totalizing technological ordering of the natural. Enframing reveals entities as standing reserve (on demand energy suppliers. My thesis maintains that enframing is geographically expressed as automobility. Because of the energy needs used to maintain automobility, reaching the goal of sustainability requires rethinking the spatial organization of life as a function of stored energy technologies.

  17. Warm liquid calorimetry for LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Geulig,E; Wallraff,W; Bézaguet, Alain-Arthur; Cavanna, F; Cinnini, P; Cittolin, Sergio; Dreesen, P; Demoulin, M; Dunps, L; Fucci, A; Gallay, G; Givernaud, Alain; Gonidec, A; Jank, Werner; Maurin, Guy; Placci, Alfredo; Porte, J P; Radermacher, E; Samyn, D; Schinzel, D; Schmidt, W F; CERN. Geneva. Detector Research and Development Committee

    1990-01-01

    Results from the beam tests of the U/TMP "warm liquid" calorimeter show that such a technique is very promising for the LHC. Our aim is to extend this programme and design a calorimeter that can satisfy the requirements of high rates, high radiation levels, compensation, uniformity and granularity, as well as fully contain hadronic showers. We propose to construct liquid ionization chambers operated at very high fields, capable of collecting the total charge produced by ionizing particles within times comparable to the bunch crossing time of the future Collider. For this reason we plan to extend the current programme on tetramethylpentane (TMP) to tetramethylsilane (TMSi). An electromagnetic calorimeter consisting of very high field ionization chambers filled with TMSi as sensitive medium with Uranium and/or other high density material as absorber will first be built (to be followed by a full-scale calorimeter module), on which newly designed fast amplifiers and readout electronics will be tested. In addition...

  18. DPIS for warm dense matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kondo, K.; Kanesue, T.; Horioka, K.; Okamura, M.

    2010-05-23

    Warm Dense Matter (WDM) offers an challenging problem because WDM, which is beyond ideal plasma, is in a low temperature and high density state with partially degenerate electrons and coupled ions. WDM is a common state of matter in astrophysical objects such as cores of giant planets and white dwarfs. The WDM studies require large energy deposition into a small target volume in a shorter time than the hydrodynamical time and need uniformity across the full thickness of the target. Since moderate energy ion beams ({approx} 0.3 MeV/u) can be useful tool for WDM physics, we propose WDM generation using Direct Plasma Injection Scheme (DPIS). In the DPIS, laser ion source is connected to the Radio Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ) linear accelerator directly without the beam transport line. DPIS with a realistic final focus and a linear accelerator can produce WDM.

  19. Metagenomics-Enabled Understanding of Soil Microbial Feedbacks to Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, J.; Wu, L.; Zhili, H.; Kostas, K.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Cole, J. R.; Tiedje, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the response of biological communities to climate warming is a central issue in ecology and global change biology, but it is poorly understood microbial communities. To advance system-level predictive understanding of the feedbacks of belowground microbial communities to multiple climate change factors and their impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, we have used integrated metagenomic technologies (e.g., target gene and shotgun metagenome sequencing, GeoChip, and isotope) to analyze soil microbial communities from experimental warming sites in Alaska (AK) and Oklahoma (OK), and long-term laboratory incubation. Rapid feedbacks of microbial communities to warming were observed in the AK site. Consistent with the changes in soil temperature, moisture and ecosystem respiration, microbial functional community structure was shifted after only 1.5-year warming, indicating rapid responses and high sensitivity of this permafrost ecosystem to climate warming. Also, warming stimulated not only functional genes involved in aerobic respiration of both labile and recalcitrant C, contributing to an observed 24% increase in 2010 growing season and 56% increase of decomposition of a standard substrate, but also functional genes for anaerobic processes (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis). Further comparisons by shotgun sequencing showed significant differences of microbial community structure between AK and OK sites. The OK site was enriched in genes annotated for cellulose degradation, CO2 production, denitrification, sporulation, heat shock response, and cellular surface structures (e.g., trans-membrane transporters for glucosides), while the AK warmed plots were enriched in metabolic pathways related to labile C decomposition. Together, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of permafrost ecosystem C to climate warming and the importance of microbial feedbacks in mediating such vulnerability.

  20. Can latent heat safely warm blood? – in vitro testing of a portable prototype blood warmer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McEwen Mark P

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Trauma/retrieval patients are often in shock and hypothermic. Treatment of such patients usually involves restoring their blood volume with transfusion of blood (stored at 2°C – 6°C and/or crystalloids or colloids (stored at ambient temperature. Rapid infusion of these cold fluids can worsen or even induce hypothermia in these patients. Warming of intravenous fluids at accident sites has traditionally been difficult due to a lack of suitable portable fluid warmers that are not dependent on mains electrical or battery power. If latent heat, the heat released when a liquid solidifies (an inherently temperature limiting process can warm intravenous fluids, portable devices without a reliance on electrical energy could be used to reduce the incidence of hypothermia in trauma patients. Methods Rapid infusion of red cells into patients was timed to sample typical clinical flow rates. An approved dry heat blood warmer was compared with a prototype blood warmer using a supercooled liquid latent heat storage material, to warm red cells whilst monitoring inlet and outlet temperatures. To determine the effect of warming on red cell integrity compared to the normal storage lesion of blood, extracellular concentrations of potassium, lactate dehydrogenase and haemoglobin were measured in blood which had been warmed after storage at 2°C – 6°C for 1 to 42 days. Results A prototype latent heat fluid warmer consistently warmed red cells from approximately 4°C to approximately 35°C at typical clinical flow rates. Warming of stored blood with latent heat did not affect red cell integrity more than the approved dry heat blood warmer. Conclusion Using latent heat as an energy source can satisfactorily warm cold blood or other intravenous fluids to near body temperature, without any adverse affects.

  1. Changes in climatic elements in the Pan-Hexi region during 1960-2014 and responses to global climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Liu; Feng, Qi; Deo, Ravinesh C.

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, robust statistical methods (including the climatic tendency ratio, inverse distance weight (IDW), and Mann-Kendall's non-parametric statistical tests) were applied to analyze the annual sequences of meteorological data for the period 1960-2014. The results indicated that the mean annual air temperature in the Pan-Hexi and the surrounding regions has increased by 0.9 °C. Over the 55-year period of study, this represented a warming rate that was significantly higher than the contemporaneous warming rate in China and the rest of the world. The warming trend in northeastern Tibet was the most pronounced. Here, the mean warming rate exhibited an increasing trend from the mid-late 1980s, and the cold season-dominated warming changed to year-round warming. The rise in the amplitude of the mean minimum temperature was significant, and the variation in the amplitude of the extreme minimum temperature was greater than that of the extreme maximum temperature, exhibiting a variation period of approximately 10 years. Since 1960, the mean precipitation in the study region and the surrounding areas first increased, and then decreased, and then increased again rapidly from 2007. Precipitation and relative humidity trend showed a 13- and a 10-year variation period, respectively. Crop evapotranspiration exhibited a decreasing trend, but from 1993 onwards, there was an increasing trend and a 9-year variation period was also notable based on observed datasets. In the most recent 55 years (1960-2014), the sunshine duration and mean wind velocity in the study area first showed a decreasing trend followed by an increasing trend, and then it exhibited a decreasing trend from east to west of the study region. The temporal variations in the climatic elements were similar to those of China, suggesting that the climate change signal in the study region over the last 55 years appeared to be well correlated with the global climate change signal.

  2. Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

    2015-06-01

    Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lacis, Andrew; Oinas, Valdar

    2000-01-01

    A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CFCs, CH4 and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, whose positive and negative climate forcings are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change of climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs In the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific longterm global monitoring of aerosol properties.

  4. The extraordinary events of the major, sudden stratospheric warming, the diminutive antarctic ozone hole, and its split in 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varotsos, Costas

    2004-01-01

    Great interest in the unprecedented events of the major, sudden stratospheric warming and the ozone hole split over Antarctica in September 25, 2002 motivates a necessity to analyze the current understanding on the dynamics, chemistry and climate impacts that are associated with both events. Significant progress in the analysis of the observational data obtained, as well as successful development and application of dynamical modeling, which have been achieved very recently, create a basis for the first survey on the role of the major, sudden stratospheric warming observed in the southern hemisphere and its relationship to the diminutive Antarctic ozone hole and its break up into two parts. Special attention has been paid to assessments of the causes of the major warming event and the future expectations concerning the stratospheric ozone depletion effect. Among the principal results is the fact that, as the polar vortex elongated, it became hydrodynamically unstable, and this insta-, bility affected the upper troposphere and stratosphere. During the major, sudden stratospheric warming, the middle stratospheric vortex split into two pieces; one piece rapidly mixed with extra vortex air, while the other returned to the pole as a much weaker and smaller vortex. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters, resulting from a series of wave events (propagated from the troposphere) that took place over the course of the winter. Finally, the relative ozone decrease (increase) in the eastern Antarctic is tightly associated with westerly (easterly) zonal wind anomalies near the southern tip of South America, and the unusual behavior of the ozone hole in 2002 therefore appears to be caused by great easterlies in this region. The main conclusion is that the southern polar vortex and the diminutive ozone hole split into two parts in September 2002, due to the prevalence of very strong

  5. Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay

    1992-01-01

    Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)

  6. The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

    2015-07-27

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957-2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

  7. Warming shelf seas drive the subtropicalization of European pelagic fish communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero-Serra, Ignasi; Edwards, Martin; Genner, Martin J

    2015-01-01

    Pelagic fishes are among the most ecologically and economically important fish species in European seas. In principle, these pelagic fishes have potential to demonstrate rapid abundance and distribution shifts in response to climatic variability due to their high adult motility, planktonic larval stages, and low dependence on benthic habitat for food or shelter during their life histories. Here, we provide evidence of substantial climate-driven changes to the structure of pelagic fish communities in European shelf seas. We investigated the patterns of species-level change using catch records from 57,870 fisheries-independent survey trawls from across European continental shelf region between 1965 and 2012. We analysed changes in the distribution and rate of occurrence of the six most common species, and observed a strong subtropicalization of the North Sea and Baltic Sea assemblages. These areas have shifted away from cold-water assemblages typically characterized by Atlantic herring and European sprat from the 1960s to 1980s, to warmer-water assemblages including Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic horse mackerel, European pilchard and European anchovy from the 1990s onwards. We next investigated if warming sea temperatures have forced these changes using temporally comprehensive data from the North Sea region. Our models indicated the primary driver of change in these species has been sea surface temperatures in all cases. Together, these analyses highlight how individual species responses have combined to result in a dramatic subtropicalization of the pelagic fish assemblage of the European continental shelf. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Human disturbance and upward expansion of plants in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dainese, Matteo; Aikio, Sami; Hulme, Philip E.; Bertolli, Alessio; Prosser, Filippo; Marini, Lorenzo

    2017-08-01

    Climate change is expected to trigger an upward expansion of plants in mountain regions and, although there is strong evidence that many native species have already shifted their distributions to higher elevations, little is known regarding how fast non-native species might respond to climate change. By analysing 131,394 occurrence records of 1,334 plant species collected over 20 years in the European Alps, we found that non-natives are spreading upwards approximately twice as fast as natives. Whereas the spread of natives was enhanced by traits favouring longer dispersal distances, this was not the case for non-natives. This was due to the non-native species pool already being strongly biased towards species that had traits facilitating spread. A large proportion of native and non-native species seemed to be able to spread upwards faster than the current velocity of climate change. In particular, long-distance dispersal events and proximity to roads proved to be key drivers for the observed rapid spread. Our findings highlight that invasions by non-native species into native alpine communities are a potentially significant additional pressure on these vulnerable ecosystems that are already likely to suffer dramatic vegetation changes with ongoing warming and increasing human activity in mountain regions.

  9. The response of Picea crassifolia forest to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhibin; Du, Jun; Yang, Junjun; Chen, Longfei; Zhu, Xi

    2014-05-01

    Picea crassifolia forest, an endemic genus mainly distributing in the Qilian Mountain of Northwest China, is very sensitive to climate warming. In the present study, the response of treeline, phenological period, and sap flow of P. crassifolia forest to climate warming were analyzed though a set of observations and experiments. The result showed: (1) During the past 50 years, the temperature had raised at a mean rate of 0.29° C per decade in this region, especially since 1980s (had increased by a total of more than 1.25° C), obviously higher than increment degree IPCC reported. This resulted in the increase of tree recruitment which was significantly positively correlated with the mean growing season temperature and with the mean minimum temperature in June and in winter. Treeline elevation shifted upward by 5.7 to 13.6 m from 1907 to 1957 and by 6.1 to 10.4 m after 1957. (2) By quantifying the canopy phenology events based on satellite-derived datasets (MODIS-NDVI) from 2001 to 2011, and investigating the correlation with climate factors, a conclusion had been drawn which revealed a 3.7 days/decade advance in the length of growing season. Our results suggested that temperature controlled treeline dynamics and phenological period more strongly than precipitation in the Qilian Mountains. (3) In the case of experimental warming (mean daily temperature was increased 0.83° C, mean daily maximum temperature was increased 4.7° C), the trend for the mass growth of P. crassifolia sapling presented a notable increase under conditions of warming, especially for tree height. The data of sap flow showed that warming facilitated the sap flow of sapling in the end of growing season, which indicated the temperature was a major restriction to sap flow rate, especially in the condition of lower temperature.

  10. Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Mumby, Peter J; Marshall, Paul A; Cao, Long; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2011-01-01

    Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local-scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local-scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO2 and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral-dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth (calcification) by ocean acidification and warming, coral bleaching and mortality by warming, macroalgal mortality by herbivore grazing and macroalgal growth via nutrient loading. The model was run for changes in sea surface temperature and water chemistry predicted by the rise in atmospheric CO2 projected from the IPCC's fossil-fuel intensive A1FI scenario during this century. Results demonstrated that severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience (via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality) even under high grazing intensity and low nutrients. Further, the threshold at which herbivore overfishing (reduced grazing) leads to a coral–algal phase shift was lowered by acidification and warming. These analyses support two important conclusions: Firstly, reefs already subjected to herbivore overfishing and nutrification are likely to be more vulnerable to increasing CO2. Secondly, under CO2 regimes above 450–500 ppm, management of local-scale disturbances will become critical to keeping reefs within an Acropora-rich domain.

  11. Historical phenological responses in apple to contrasting warming contexts may clarify future crucial responses in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Legave, Jean-Michel; Farrera, Isabelle; El Yaacoubi, Adnane; Malagi,Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    Phenological responses to warming in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting warming contexts. This framework is appropriate for highlighting varying responses that would combine chill accumulation declines and heat accumulation increases. A comprehensive overview of historical responses might clarify crucial future responses in the warmest European regions. To examine this issue, a dataset was constituted in apple from flowering dates collected for main...

  12. Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau

    OpenAIRE

    Liang, Eryuan

    2016-01-01

    The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unc...

  13. Stomatal acclimation to vapour pressure deficit doubles transpiration of small tree seedlings with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchin, Renée M.; Broadhead, Alice A.; Bostic, Laura E.

    2016-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to increase temperature (T) and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in many regions, but the effect of persistent warming on plant stomatal behaviour is highly uncertain. We investigated the effect of experimental warming of 1.9-5.1 °C and increased VPD of ...... with increasing VPD and may necessitate revision of current models based on this assumption....

  14. Nitrogen and Warming Control the Vegetation in Inner Mongolia Tourist Area

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Qiong; Hu, Xiaobing; Zhang, Chi

    2016-01-01

    The global warming and atmospheric nitrogen deposition problem has become more and more serious under the influence of human activities, and it has become one of the hot issues in this field, which will have far-reaching impact on all kinds of vegetation, thus the functioning of the ecosystem will be changed, which will be reflected in climate warming process. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is mainly composed of desert grasslands, so the development and protection of vegetation has consider...

  15. Long-term versus short-term warming effects on microbial processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Tom; Leblans, Niki; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Richter, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Rapid warming in high latitude ecosystems is predicted to drive massive losses of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soils to the atmosphere, raising concerns that it will create a positive feedback to climate change. However, such predictions expect that temperature effects on soil microbes, as chief producers of CO2, will persist over time scales meaningful to the climate system (i.e. decades to centuries). There is increasing awareness that the soil microbial community can acclimate to temperature change over time scales from months to years, resulting in attenuating responses of CO2 release to the atmosphere. Despite this, nothing is currently known about long-term warming effects on the activity or physiology of high latitude soil microbes, and, through this, the longevity of CO2 losses from these ecosystems. We conducted a study at a unique research site that makes use of natural (geothermal) gradients in soil temperature that have been in place for over 35 years as a natural warming treatment. We determined long-term warming effects (+0.5 °C, +1.5 °C, +3 °C and +6 °C) on soil CO2 release through microbial respiration in a laboratory incubation experiment, and explored microbial carbon use efficiency and soil carbon and nitrogen pools as mechanisms. We also performed a companion experiment to compare long-term warming effects on microbial processes to those caused by six weeks of warming of ambient soil to +3 °C and +6 °C. We show that while six weeks of warming consistently increased microbial respiration by up to 30%, this effect did not persist in soils exposed to 35 years of warming. We present further data linking such long-term thermal acclimation to shifts in microbial carbon use efficiency and soil carbon and nitrogen availability, and discuss our findings in the context of warming-driven feedbacks from high latitude soils to future climate change.

  16. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01

    My teaching and textbook have always covered many physics-related social issues, including stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. The ozone saga is an inspiring good-news story that's instructive for solving the similar but bigger problem of global warming. Thus, as soon as students in my physics literacy course at the University of…

  17. Strategies for mitigation of global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Niels I

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed.......The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed....

  18. Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

  19. Awareness And Perception of Global Warming Among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BACKGROUND: Increase in the emission of green house gases and the attendant climatic changes have led to the phenomenon of global warming with all its catastrophic consequences. OBJECTIVE: To assess knowledge and perception of the concept of global warming among undergraduate medical students

  20. National Security Implications of Global Warming Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Although numerous historical examples demons