City gas companies in Japan are experiencing an expansion in demand for gas in all manufacturing industries. The reason for this is, first and foremost, external, in that the first and second oil crises and the recent Gulf War have placed the oil market in a state of flux. That is to say, supply and demand in the oil products market is unstable while the stability of city gas, which is the main raw material for LNG, is being highly appraised. Another external reason is related to a subject much in the news recently the world over - the environment. City gas is highly regarded for its minimum environmental impact. Domestic reasons for the expansion include the fact that with the increase in use of city gas in manufacturing industries, the end user is beginning to recognize the various special qualities that city gas possesses. The expansion is also due in part to the unrelenting efforts in sales by the gas producers themselves. This report focuses on the expansion in demand in city gas over the past ten years from the point of view of Tokyo Gas as a producer that has been party to the increased sales of city gas in manufacturing industries for over 10 years giving views on the reasons for the increase. Graphic reports of the actual situation of the industry at meetings such as these are rare and therefore although this is slightly different from the main theme, I would like to proceed with the debate in the hope that this will be beneficial in the expansion of future gas demand in countries all over the world
New Zealand is a little country with a little economy but with a population that's rapidly aging. New Zealand's population is only 4.3 million people. It's GDP is only $US58.6 billion (2002). New Zealand's expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP is not out of line with that of other countries. As a nation we have been increasing expenditure on health over recent years. In 1990 we spent 7% of GDP on health. In 1995 that increased to 7.65% and is now 8.3%. However, in per capita terms our expenditure on health does not compare so well with like countries. The size of New Zealand's economy is restricting what our country spends on health. Health is already the second highest demand on the New Zealand tax dollar. The tolerance of New Zealanders would be challenged if a Government attempted to increase taxes further to meet the growing demands for expenditure on health, but at the same time the population's expectations are increasing. This is the challenging situation we face today. What lies ahead? Like all industrialized countries New Zealand is facing an aging population. The population below age 40 is decreasing, but it is increasing significantly over that age. 16% of the population is currently aged over 60. By 2051 this proportion will almost double to just over 31%. Coupled with the aging population is increased awareness and expectations, as access to options for treatment and technology becomes readily accessible to the population through such media as the internet. The extent of the impact of the aging population can be clearly represented by focusing on one specialty such as orthopaedics. The New Zealand Orthopaecic Association undertook a study in July 2003 which concluded (among other things) that as a result of the projected aging of the population, over the next 50 years: Musculo-skeletal operations will increase by over 30%. The number of hip replacements will nearly double. The incidence of osteoporosis will increase by a massive 201%. The number
Nielsen, Kurt; Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale
We suggest a market design for rapid demand response in electricity markets. The solution consists of remotely controlled switches, meters, forecasting models as well as a flexible auction market to set prices and select endusers job by job. The auction market motivates truth-telling and makes...... it simple to involve the endusers in advance and to activate demand response immediately. The collective solution is analyzed and economic simulations are conducted for the case of Kenya. Kenya has been su ering from unreliable electricity supply for many years and companies and households have learned...... to adjust by investments in backup generators. We focus on turning the many private backup generators into a demand response system. The economic simulation focuses on possible distortion introduced by various ways of splitting the generated surplus from the demand response system. An auction run instantly...
Sustaining the increasing energy consumption is crucial to future economic growth in China. This report focuses on the current and future situation of energy production and consumption in China and how China is coping with its increasing domestic energy demand. Today, coal is the most important energy resource, followed by oil and hydropower. Most energy resources are located in the inland, whereas the main demand for energy is in the coastal areas, which makes transportation and transmission of energy vital. The industrial sector is the main driver of the energy consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption in China, but the transport sector and the residential sector will increase their share of consumption by 2020. China's energy intensity decreased during the 1990s, but it is still high in a global comparison. China is projected to increase its energy consumption at least two times between 2000 and 2025. The government has an equal focus on energy conservation and to develop the current energy resources. Coal will continue to be the most important fuel, but the demand for oil, hydropower, natural gas and nuclear power will also increase. The main future challenges are transportation of energy resources within China and securing oil supply, both domestic and imports
Kurt Nielsen; Tseganesh Wubale Tamirat
We suggest a market design for rapid demand response in electricity markets. The solution consists of remotely controlled switches, meters, forecasting models as well as a flexible auction market to set prices and select endusers job by job. The auction market motivates truth-telling and makes it simple to involve the endusers in advance and to activate demand response immediately. The collective solution is analyzed and economic simulations are conducted for the case of Kenya. Kenya has been...
Johnston, C.; Kooten, van G.C.
Although wind, hydro and solar are the most discussed sources of renewable energy, countries will need to rely much more on biomass if they are to meet renewable energy targets. In this study, a global forest trade model is used to examine the global effects of expanded demand for wood pellets fired
Full Text Available During human societyâ€™s development on large geographical areas, a series of cultural systems have appeared and have determined a certain approach concerning the environment and social relations. These systems of thought persist even today and they are strongly influenced by individualsâ€™ thinking and approaches in that society, thing that requires a specific approach for the implementation of these relatively new concepts (e.g. sustainable development, pollution, ecological approaches on social life. Furthermore, the continuous growth of the demand for energy in the world is seen as an alarm. Between 1970 and 1997 world energy consumption has almost doubled and it is projected to grow by about 57% during 2004-2030 and the thing which should be mentioned is that with the increasing energy demand, pollution levels will increase too. But we must not forget that electric and thermal power represent one of the basic needs of mankind, and when the fulfilment of this need started to affect the climate and implicitly human health this problem turned into a hardly manageable one. We must not forget that the worldâ€™s population is growing rapidly and the level of pollution per capita increased we might even say in direct proportion. In many cases, increased pollution has its explanation in the growing number of individuals at global level and also the increasing needs, desires, aspirations, standard of living, of these. This paper intends to objectively analyse the interconnections that arise between the environment and the growth of the demand for energy, emphasizing the devastating effects of pollution created by burning fossil fuels in order to obtain electric and thermal power as well as the current and future possibilities for the replacement of these energy reserves with renewable energy reserves. The whole analysis will be accompanied by case studies and will follow strictly imposed goals by sustainable development.
The rising demand for natural gas in Finland which already uses more gas than any other Nordic country is noted. The natural gas market which is based on sales to large industries and for heating is compared to the market in Denmark which is geared to small private heating customers. Imports of Norwegian gas allowing increased sales for power generation in Finland, and the influence of the impending Finnish application for membership of the EC on the gas market are considered. (UK)
Mccarthy, Mary C; Bowers, Howard E; Campbell, Damon M; Parikh, Priti P; Woods, Randy J
Dynamic assessment of the effective surgical workforce recommends 27,300 general surgeons in 2030; 2,525 more than are presently being trained. Rural shortages are already critical and there has been insufficient preparation for this need. A literature review of the factors influencing the choice of rural practice was performed. A systematic search was conducted of PubMed and the Web of Science to identify applicable studies in rural practice, surgical training, and rural general surgery. These articles were reviewed to identify the pertinent reports. The articles chosen for review are directed to four main objectives: 1) description of the challenges of rural practice, 2) factors associated with the choice of rural practice, 3) interventions to increase interest and preparation for rural practice, and 4) present successful rural surgical practice models. There is limited research on the factors influencing surgeons in the selection of rural surgery. The family practice literature suggests that physicians are primed for rural living through early experience, with reinforcement during medical school and residency, and retained through community involvement, and personal and professional satisfaction. However, more research into the factors drawing surgeons specifically to rural surgery, and keeping them in the community, is needed.
Russell, Carl R.
Small regional airports present an underutilized source of capacity in the national air transportation system. This study sought to determine whether a 50 percent increase in national operations could be achieved by limiting demand growth at large hub airports and instead growing traffic levels at the surrounding regional airports. This demand scenario for future air traffic in the United States was generated and used as input to a 24-hour simulation of the national airspace system. Results of the demand generation process and metrics predicting the simulation results are presented, in addition to the actual simulation results. The demand generation process showed that sufficient runway capacity exists at regional airports to offload a significant portion of traffic from hub airports. Predictive metrics forecast a large reduction of delays at most major airports when demand is shifted. The simulation results then show that offloading hub traffic can significantly reduce nationwide delays.
Yang, Hua-yuan; Liu, Tang-yi; Kuai, Le; Gao, Ming
To search for a stimulation method for increasing athletes' performance. One hundred and fifty athletes were randomly divided into a trial group and a control group, 75 athletes in each group. Acupoints were stimulated with audio frequency pulse modulated wave and multi-blind method were used to investigate effects of the electric stimulation of acupoints on 30-meter running, standing long jumping and Cybex isokinetic testing index. The acupoint electric stimulation method could significantly increase athlete's performance (P < 0.05), and the biomechanical indexes, maximal peak moment of force (P < 0.05), force moment accelerating energy (P < 0.05) and average power (P < 0.05). Electrical acupoint stimulation can enhance athlete's rapid strength.
Hans M. Gregersen; William K. Easter; J. Edward de Steiguer
The nature of the increased needs and demands for water relate to water quantity and quality, bringing in the dimensions of timing and location of water flows. Some key past international activities related to water and watershed policy are reviewed. The common threads that are shaping likely future responses relate to technical vs. institutional means of addressing...
Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C
Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.
The Organization of African Unity (OAU), the African Development Bank (ADB) and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) have criticized African governments for not taking the problem of unchecked population growth seriously enough. "Until recently most African governments did not view rapid population growth as a matter for concern," said the OAU assistant secretary-general for political affairs, Machivenyika Mapuranga, at a seminar on 'population and development'. The OAU estimates that an annual average population increase of 3.1% far outstrips Africa's economic growth, which in 1992 was less than 1%. Mapuranga acknowledged that cutting the population increase is an uphill struggle, especially among rural communities. African agriculture is largely labor intensive, sustained by smallholders, which encourages farmers to have more children. Like other wage earners, African farmers look to support from their family when they grow old and, for that reason, the number of children also counts. But with agricultural production growing at an average annual rate of 2.5%, self-sufficiency in food remains an elusive goal. Cities in sub-Saharan Africa are growing much faster than the overall rate of population increase of 3.1% per year. Between 1980 and 1988 the region's urban population increased at the rate of 6.9% a year. Urban areas now account for nearly 30% of the sub-Saharan Africa population, currently put at 680 million. By 2025, approximately 700 million people are expected to live in urban areas. Despite migration to towns, the rural population is expected to rise more than 68%, reaching over 590 million. full text
Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.
Mohamed, Fahim; Endre, Zoltan; Jayamanne, Shaluka; Pianta, Timothy; Peake, Philip; Palangasinghe, Chathura; Chathuranga, Umesh; Jayasekera, Kithsiri; Wunnapuk, Klintean; Shihana, Fathima; Shahmy, Seyed; Buckley, Nicholas
Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common after severe paraquat poisoning and usually heralds a fatal outcome. The rapid large increases in serum creatinine (Cr) exceed that which can be explained by creatinine kinetics based on loss of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Methods and Findings This prospective multi-centre study compared the kinetics of two surrogate markers of GFR, serum creatinine and serum cystatin C (CysC), following paraquat poisoning to understand and assess renal functional loss after paraquat poisoning. Sixty-six acute paraquat poisoning patients admitted to medical units of five hospitals were included. Relative changes in creatinine and CysC were monitored in serial blood and urine samples, and influences of non-renal factors were also studied. Results Forty-eight of 66 patients developed AKI (AKIN criteria), with 37 (56%) developing moderate to severe AKI (AKIN stage 2 or 3). The 37 patients showed rapid increases in creatinine of >100% within 24 hours, >200% within 48 hours and >300% by 72 hours and 17 of the 37 died. CysC concentration increased by 50% at 24 hours in the same 37 patients and then remained constant. The creatinine/CysC ratio increased 8 fold over 72 hours. There was a modest fall in urinary creatinine and serum/urine creatinine ratios and a moderate increase in urinary paraquat during first three days. Conclusion Loss of renal function contributes modestly to the large increases in creatinine following paraquat poisoning. The rapid rise in serum creatinine most probably represents increased production of creatine and creatinine to meet the energy demand following severe oxidative stress. Minor contributions include increased cyclisation of creatine to creatinine because of acidosis and competitive or non-competitive inhibition of creatinine secretion. Creatinine is not a good marker of renal functional loss after paraquat poisoning and renal injury should be evaluated using more specific biomarkers of renal injury
Norin, Tommy; Mills, Suzanne C; Crespel, Amélie; Cortese, Daphne; Killen, Shaun S; Beldade, Ricardo
Increased ocean temperatures are causing mass bleaching of anemones and corals in the tropics worldwide. While such heat-induced loss of algal symbionts (zooxanthellae) directly affects anemones and corals physiologically, this damage may also cascade on to other animal symbionts. Metabolic rate is an integrative physiological trait shown to relate to various aspects of organismal performance, behaviour and locomotor capacity, and also shows plasticity during exposure to acute and chronic stressors. As climate warming is expected to affect the physiology, behaviour and life history of animals, including ectotherms such as fish, we measured if residing in bleached versus unbleached sea anemones ( Heteractis magnifica ) affected the standard (i.e. baseline) metabolic rate and behaviour (activity) of juvenile orange-fin anemonefish ( Amphiprion chrysopterus ) . Metabolic rate was estimated from rates of oxygen uptake [Formula: see text], and the standard metabolic rate [Formula: see text] of anemonefish from bleached anemones was significantly higher by 8.2% compared with that of fish residing in unbleached anemones, possibly due to increased stress levels. Activity levels did not differ between fish from bleached and unbleached anemones. As [Formula: see text] reflects the minimum cost of living, the increased metabolic demands may contribute to the negative impacts of bleaching on important anemonefish life history and fitness traits observed previously (e.g. reduced spawning frequency and lower fecundity). © 2018 The Author(s).
Apostolos Burnetas; Stephen Gilbert
In this paper we study a situation in which a broker must manage the procurement of a short-life-cycle product. As the broker observes demand for the item, she learns about the demand process. However, as is often the case in practice, it becomes either more difficult or more expensive to procure the item as the selling season advances. Thus, the broker must trade off higher procurement costs against the benefit of making ordering decisions with better information about demand. Problems of th...
Lin, Boqiang; Ouyang, Xiaoling
Highlights: • Energy demand characteristics of the US and China were compared. • Major factors affecting energy demand were examined based on the panel data and the cointegration models. • China’s energy demand would reach 5498.13 Mtce in 2020 and 6493.07 Mtce in 2030. • Urbanization can be an opportunity for low-carbon development in China. - Abstract: China’s energy demand has shown characteristics of rigid growth in the current urbanization stage. This paper applied the panel data model and the cointegration model to examine the determinants of energy demand in China, and then forecasts China’s energy demand based on the scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy demand and economic growth in the long term. In business as usual scenario, China’s energy consumption will reach 6493.07 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030. The conclusions can be drawn on the basis of the comparison of characteristics between the US and China. First, energy demand has rigid growth characteristics in the rapid urbanization stage. Second, coal-dominated energy structure of China will lead to the severe problems of CO 2 emissions. Third, rapid economic growth requires that energy prices should not rise substantially, so that energy conservation will be the major strategy for China’s low-carbon transition. Major policy implications are: first, urbanization can be used as an opportunity for low-carbon development; second, energy price reform is crucial for China’s energy sustainability
Ruslan A. Abramov
Full Text Available Abstract. The aim of the research is identification of the objective and subjective factors influencing professional self-realization of graduates of the field of study «Public and Municipal Administration».Methods. The authors have conducted anonymous opinion survey of prestigious economic universities undergraduates (bachelor and master degree course and graduates specialized in this sphere. The questions were about correspondence of gained academic qualification and actual occupation, the importance of degree certificate, satisfaction with education quality, attitude to different aspects of studying etc. In order to make relevant conclusions, the authors apply comparative, statistical, eneralization and induction methods.Results. Informants’ answers helped to count out the percentage of graduates whose occupation is connected with public administration, understand the reasons of choosing relevant master course, assess the significance of acquired competence and qualification for job placement at governmental organizations. The main scientific result of the research is working out a system of recommendations aimed at increasing demand for graduates specialized in the sphere of civil service, and, consequently, improving the efficiency of investment in management training. It is specified that the most important issues in this regard are forethought of career choice, students’ vision of academic planning, and approach to teaching, practice-oriented type of education.Scientific novelty. Having organized the data and compared it with previous surveys’ results, the authors reveal the factors essential to professional success and application of knowledge as well as correlation of these factors which means meeting the objective of the research.Practical significance. The presented materials can be used for the further modernization of the process of educational planning and taken into notice while developing academic programs for the
Industry originally projected that oxygenate supply would not be able to meet the demand created by U.S. oxygenated and reformulated gasoline mandates. This paper reports that those projections have been reserved in two recent industry reports - one from Chemical Market Associates Inc. (CMAI) and one from Pace Consultants Inc. Pace's report, by Paulo Nery and Nathan Sims, predicts gasoline and oxygenates demand, and examines the role ethanol may play in changing those values. CMAI's report estimates captive supply and demand of butylenes and oxygenates. Oxygenates are entering the domestic gasoline market this winter as a result of the 1990 U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments. Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) is the most important oxygenate, although ethanol, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME) are gathering market strength. Ethanol's strength is derived from President Bush's ruling granting a waiver to reformulated gasoline containing ethanol. This waiver allows ethanol blends to have a vapor pressure 1 psi higher than other types of gasoline
The environmental wave of the 1980s will continue through the year 2000 and beyond. The public is demanding more and more involvement in development decisions. The issue not only for industry, but for regulators as well, is how to accomodate these public demands. In Alberta, the opportunity for the public to participate in the decision-making process regarding major energy projects has always been available. Any proponent is required to involve the public during the preparation of their environmental impact assessment and a quasi-judicial public hearing is provided for. This process, although efficient, tends to be confrontational and often does not result in a resolution of issues. As a result, community advisory committees often evolve out of the hearing to enable the affected community to become more actively involved in the project development and operation. In the oil sands region, this confrontational dilemma has been evident with the native community of Fort McKay since development began. In an effort to address this dilemma, The Alberta government initiated the community committee concept as a standing committee to deal with any new development proposals. The result has been open consultation with the community and resolution of issues before any confrontation could develop. Regional land use and reclamation decisions are being made with input of all stakeholders. 3 refs
Full Text Available Due to great demands in construction business, the stone industry has been growing very fast around the world. In fact, the technological iınproveınents on the ınachinery of marble and granite processing plant and quarry in recent years gives impulse to the stone business. According to studies reported� there are recognizable increments on both productions and constructions. Natural stones become driving forces in tl1e countries economy. In this study� so ın e statistical nuınbers for productions and consumption of natural stones will be presented in a base of countries that strongly involve in stone business. The importance of the econoınical impacts of natural stone on countries econoıny wiJI be emphasized. Then, the future of natural stones and its business will be discussed
Pretorius, E.B.; Muan, A.
This paper reports that hydrogen needs will increase two to five times as the world turns its attention to cleaning up engine exhaust. The subject of fuel trends and hydrogen needs at Foster Wheeler USA Corp.'s Hydrogen Plant Conference, June 2--4, in Orlando was addressed. The conference was attended by more than 100 people from 12 different countries. Drawing on knowledge from over 1 billion scfd of total installed hydrogen plant capacity, Foster Wheeler experts presented papers in the fields of steam reforming, partial oxidation (with all feedstocks, from natural gas to resids and coal), and steam reformer design. Other industry specialists gave papers on refinery balances, markets, coal feedstocks, utility systems, and components for hydrogen plants
Verstraeten, W.W.; Neu, J.L.; Williams, J.E.; Bowman, K.W.; Worden, J.R.; Boersma, K.F.
Rapid population growth and industrialization have driven substantial increases in Asian ozone precursor emissions over the past decade1, with highly uncertain impacts on regional and global tropospheric ozone levels. According to ozonesonde measurements2, 3, tropospheric ozone concentrations at two
Lise Aasen Haveraaen
Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to help workers with long-term sickness absence return to work (RTW, it is important to understand factors that either impede or facilitate employee’s reintegration into the labour force. The aim of this study was therefore to examine the impact of psychological work characteristics on time-to first RTW in sick listed employees in Norway. Methods The study was designed as a cohort study of 543 employees participating in 50 different RTW programmes. The Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ was used to gather information on the psychological work conditions. The participants were followed for up to 18 months after they started treatment in the RTW programme. Survival analyses were used to investigate the association between psychological work conditions and time-to first RTW. Results Having high psychological job demands (HR = .654; 95% CI: .513–.832 and low decision control (HR = 1.297; 95% CI: 1.010–1.666 were both independent predictors of delayed RTW. Employees in low-strain jobs (low demands/high control (HR = 1.811; 95% CI: 1.287–2.549 and passive jobs (low demands/low control (HR = 1.599; 95% CI: 1.107–2.309, returned to work earlier compared to employees in high-strain jobs (high demands/low control. No difference was found for active jobs (high demands/high control. Conclusion This study revealed that high psychological demands, low control, and being in a high strain job reduced the probability of early RTW in sick listed employees. RTW programmes should therefore increase the focus on these issues.
Haveraaen, Lise Aasen; Skarpaas, Lisebet Skeie; Aas, Randi Wågø
In order to help workers with long-term sickness absence return to work (RTW), it is important to understand factors that either impede or facilitate employee's reintegration into the labour force. The aim of this study was therefore to examine the impact of psychological work characteristics on time-to first RTW in sick listed employees in Norway. The study was designed as a cohort study of 543 employees participating in 50 different RTW programmes. The Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ) was used to gather information on the psychological work conditions. The participants were followed for up to 18 months after they started treatment in the RTW programme. Survival analyses were used to investigate the association between psychological work conditions and time-to first RTW. Having high psychological job demands (HR = .654; 95% CI: .513-.832) and low decision control (HR = 1.297; 95% CI: 1.010-1.666) were both independent predictors of delayed RTW. Employees in low-strain jobs (low demands/high control) (HR = 1.811; 95% CI: 1.287-2.549) and passive jobs (low demands/low control) (HR = 1.599; 95% CI: 1.107-2.309), returned to work earlier compared to employees in high-strain jobs (high demands/low control). No difference was found for active jobs (high demands/high control). This study revealed that high psychological demands, low control, and being in a high strain job reduced the probability of early RTW in sick listed employees. RTW programmes should therefore increase the focus on these issues.
Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn
Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water
The world energy demand growth remains strong: 2004 experienced the highest growth since 19987, and brent prices had moderate impact in 2005: Very strong rise of energy consumptions despite high oil prices, Economic situation still favorable, Evolutions principally due to China. 2005 world energy consumption: 11,4 Gtoe: Asia accounts for 35% of the world energy consumption, China's weight (15%) continues to increase by one point every year (+5 points since 2000). Asia increases its pressure on the world energy growth in 2005: China accounts for almost half of the world energy consumption increase in 2005, the whole Asia accounts for 70%; The European consumption growth represents less than 5% of China's Growth; The American energy consumption decreases for the first time. 2005 world consumption by energy: With an increasing market share by 0,7 points, coal penetration increases; The oil market has lost 0,4 point, with an accelerating relative decrease; The relative weight of gas remains stable, with 21%. Energy efficiency and energy intensity of GDP: Slow-down of the world energy intensity decrease since 2001, whereas the economic growth is faster, due to changes in trends in China (increase in the recent years). Increase less sharp in China in 2005 (price effect). Energy intensity trends of GDP: Fast decrease in CIS since the recovery of the economic growth; Slow-down of the decrease in EU since 2000 and recovery in 2005 whereas the decrease has accelerated in the USA. Since 2000, the energy consumption increases less rapidly than the GDP almost everywhere, except for the Middle East. Projections until 2020: China and India could represent one third of the world energy growth, the whole of Asia more than 50%; Growth prospects for energy demand are low in the EU and CIS; America would account for 20% of the world energy growth (8% USA); In the rest of the world, high growth in Africa and in the Middle East. Gas could cover more than 40% of the world energy
Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Davidson, Carolyn [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McLaren, Joyce [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miller, John [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
With rapid growth in energy efficiency and distributed generation, electric utilities are anticipating stagnant or decreasing electricity sales, particularly in the residential sector. Utilities are increasingly considering alternative rates structures that are designed to recover fixed costs from residential solar photovoltaic (PV) customers with low net electricity consumption. Proposed structures have included fixed charge increases, minimum bills, and increasingly, demand rates - for net metered customers and all customers. This study examines the electricity bill implications of various residential rate alternatives for multiple locations within the United States. For the locations analyzed, the results suggest that residential PV customers offset, on average, between 60% and 99% of their annual load. However, roughly 65% of a typical customer's electricity demand is non-coincidental with PV generation, so the typical PV customer is generally highly reliant on the grid for pooling services.
Increased ocean temperature due to climate change is raising metabolic demands and energy requirements of marine ectotherms. If productivity of marine systems and fisheries are to persist, individual species must compensate for this demand through increasing energy acquisition or decreasing energy expenditure. Here we reveal that the most important coral reef fishery species in the Indo-west Pacific, the large predatory coral trout Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae), can behaviourally adjust food intake to maintain body-condition under elevated temperatures, and acclimate over time to consume larger meals. However, these increased energetic demands are unlikely to be met by adequate production at lower trophic levels, as smaller prey species are often the first to decline in response to climate-induced loss of live coral and structural complexity. Consequently, ubiquitous increases in energy consumption due to climate change will increase top-down competition for a dwindling biomass of prey, potentially distorting entire food webs and associated fisheries.
Johansen, J.L.; Pratchett, M.S.; Messmer, V.; Coker, Darren James; Tobin, A.J.; Hoey, A.S.
Increased ocean temperature due to climate change is raising metabolic demands and energy requirements of marine ectotherms. If productivity of marine systems and fisheries are to persist, individual species must compensate for this demand through increasing energy acquisition or decreasing energy expenditure. Here we reveal that the most important coral reef fishery species in the Indo-west Pacific, the large predatory coral trout Plectropomus leopardus (Serranidae), can behaviourally adjust food intake to maintain body-condition under elevated temperatures, and acclimate over time to consume larger meals. However, these increased energetic demands are unlikely to be met by adequate production at lower trophic levels, as smaller prey species are often the first to decline in response to climate-induced loss of live coral and structural complexity. Consequently, ubiquitous increases in energy consumption due to climate change will increase top-down competition for a dwindling biomass of prey, potentially distorting entire food webs and associated fisheries.
This paper describes a framework for analyzing the imperfect price-reversibility (hysteresis) of oil demand. The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s, nor is it necessarily true that these partial demand reversals themselves will be reversed exactly by future price increases. The author decomposes price into three monotonic series: price increases to maximum historic levels, price cuts, and price recoveries (increases below historic highs). He would expect that the response to price cuts would be no greater than to price recoveries, which in turn would be no greater than for increases in maximum historic price. For evidence of imperfect price-reversibility, he tests econometrically the following US data: vehicle miles per driver, the fuel efficiency of the automobile fleet, and gasoline demand per driver. In each case, the econometric results allow him to reject the hypothesis of perfect price-reversibility. The data show smaller response to price cuts than to price increases. This has dramatic implications for projections of gasoline and oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. 26 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs
Full Text Available Healthy humans are able to place light and heavy objects in small and large target locations with remarkable accuracy. Here we examine how dexterity demand and physical demand affect flexibility in joint coordination and end-effector kinematics when healthy young adults perform an upper extremity reaching task. We manipulated dexterity demand by changing target size and physical demand by increasing external resistance to reaching. Uncontrolled manifold analysis was used to decompose variability in joint coordination patterns into variability stabilizing the end-effector and variability de-stabilizing the end-effector during reaching. Our results demonstrate a proportional increase in stabilizing and de-stabilizing variability without a change in the ratio of the two variability components as physical demands increase. We interpret this finding in the context of previous studies showing that sensorimotor noise increases with increasing physical demands. We propose that the larger de-stabilizing variability as a function of physical demand originated from larger sensorimotor noise in the neuromuscular system. The larger stabilizing variability with larger physical demands is a strategy employed by the neuromuscular system to counter the de-stabilizing variability so that performance stability is maintained. Our findings have practical implications for improving the effectiveness of movement therapy in a wide range of patient groups, maintaining upper extremity function in old adults, and for maximizing athletic performance.
Nieuwenhuizen, AG; Schuiling, GA; Moes, H; Koiter, TR
During gestation the demand for insulin increases due to a decrease in insulin sensitivity of the maternal tissues. Simultaneously, pancreatic islet-cell proliferation, as well as insulin production and secretion increase. Both phenomena appear to be caused by the actions of pregnancy hormones. We
Åsa Grytli Tveten
Full Text Available This paper investigates the effect of increased demand-side flexibility (DSF on integration and market value of variable renewable energy sources (VRE. Using assumed potentials, system-optimal within-day shifts in demand are investigated for the Northern European power markets in 2030, applying a comprehensive partial equilibrium model with high temporal and spatial resolution. Increased DSF is found to cause only a minor (less than 3% reduction in consumers’ cost of electricity. VRE revenues are found to increase (up to 5% and 2% for wind and solar power, respectively, and total VRE curtailment decreases by up to 7.2 TWh. Increased DSF causes only limited reductions in GHG emissions. The emission reduction is, however, sensitive to underlying assumptions. We conclude that increased DSF is a promising measure for improving VRE integration. However, low consumers’ savings imply that policies stimulating DFS will be needed to fully use the potential benefits of DSF for VRE integration
Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floortje; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André
Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergydepend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirectland use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1)projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and theeffect on other land uses in
Marnie L Vanden Noven
Full Text Available To expose cortical involvement in age-related changes in motor performance, we compared steadiness (force fluctuations and fatigability of submaximal isometric contractions with the ankle dorsiflexor muscles in older and young adults and with varying levels of cognitive demand imposed. Sixteen young (20 ± 2 yr: 8 men, 8 women and 17 older adults (69 ±4 yr: 9 men, 8 women attended three sessions and performed a 40 s isometric contraction at 5% maximal voluntary contraction (MVC force followed by an isometric contraction at 30% MVC until task failure. The cognitive demand required during the submaximal contractions in each session differed as follows: 1 high-cognitive demand session where difficult mental math was imposed (counting backward by 13 from a 4-digit number; 2 low-cognitive demand session which involved simple mental math (counting backward by one; and 3 control session with no mental math. Anxiety was elevated during the high-cognitive demand session compared with other sessions for both age groups but more so for the older adults than young adults (p0.05, but the variability between sessions (standard deviation [SD] of 3 sessions was greater for older adults than young (2.02 ± 1.05 min vs. 1.25 ± 0.51 min, P<0.05. Thus, variability in lower limb motor performance for low and moderate force isometric tasks increased with age and was exacerbated when cognitive demand was imposed, and may be related to modulation of synergist and antagonist muscles and an altered neural strategy with age originating from central sources. These data have significant implications for cognitively demanding low-force motor tasks that are relevant to functional and ergonomic in an aging workforce.
Demand response may be a valuable flexible resource for low-carbon electric power grids. However, there are as many types of possible demand response as there are ways to use electricity, making demand response difficult to study at scale in realistic settings. This talk reviews our state of knowledge regarding the potential value of demand response in several example systems as a function of increasing levels of wind and solar power, sometimes drawing on the analogy between demand response and storage. Overall, we find demand response to be promising, but its potential value is very system dependent. Furthermore, demand response, like storage, can easily saturate ancillary service markets.
Sigauke, Caston; Verster, Andréhette; Chikobvu, Delson
A Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is used to model extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand. The model is fitted to years 2000–2011 recorded data for South Africa to make a comparative analysis with the Generalized Pareto-type (GP-type) distribution. Peak electricity demand is influenced by the tails of probability distributions as well as by means or averages. At times there is a need to depart from the average thinking and exploit information provided by the extremes (tails). Empirical results show that both the GP-type and the GPD are a good fit to the data. One of the main advantages of the GP-type is the estimation of only one parameter. Modelling of extreme daily increases in peak electricity demand helps in quantifying the amount of electricity which can be shifted from the grid to off peak periods. One of the policy implications derived from this study is the need for day-time use of electricity billing system similar to the one used in the cellular telephone/and fixed line-billing technology. This will result in the shifting of electricity demand on the grid to off peak time slots as users try to avoid high peak hour charges. - Highlights: ► Policy makers should design demand response strategies to save electricity. ► Peak electricity demand is influenced by tails of probability distributions. ► Both the GSP and the GPD are a good fit to the data. ► Accurate assessment of level and frequency of extreme load forecasts is important.
Metrik, Jane; Aston, Elizabeth R.; Kahler, Christopher W.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; McGeary, John E.; Knopik, Valerie S.; MacKillop, James
Background Incentive salience is a multidimensional construct that includes craving, drug value relative to other reinforcers, and implicit motivation such as attentional bias to drug cues. Laboratory cue reactivity (CR) paradigms have been used to evaluate marijuana incentive salience with measures of craving, but not with behavioral economic measures of marijuana demand or implicit attentional processing tasks. Methods This within-subjects study used a new CR paradigm to examine multiple dimensions of marijuana’s incentive salience and to compare CR-induced increases in craving and demand. Frequent marijuana users (N=93, 34% female) underwent exposure to neutral cues then to lit marijuana cigarettes. Craving, marijuana demand via a marijuana purchase task, and heart rate were assessed after each cue set. A modified Stroop task with cannabis and control words was completed after the marijuana cues as a measure of attentional bias. Results Relative to neutral cues, marijuana cues significantly increased subjective craving and demand indices of intensity (i.e., drug consumed at $0) and Omax (i.e., peak drug expenditure). Elasticity significantly decreased following marijuana cues, reflecting sustained purchase despite price increases. Craving was correlated with demand indices (r’s: 0.23–0.30). Marijuana users displayed significant attentional bias for cannabis-related words after marijuana cues. Cue-elicited increases in intensity were associated with greater attentional bias for marijuana words. Conclusions Greater incentive salience indexed by subjective, behavioral economic, and implicit measures was observed after marijuana versus neutral cues, supporting multidimensional assessment. The study highlights the utility of a behavioral economic approach in detecting cue-elicited changes in marijuana incentive salience. PMID:27515723
Vanden Noven, Marnie L.; Pereira, Hugo M.; Yoon, Tejin; Stevens, Alyssa A.; Nielson, Kristy A.; Hunter, Sandra K.
To expose cortical involvement in age-related changes in motor performance, we compared steadiness (force fluctuations) and fatigability of submaximal isometric contractions with the ankle dorsiflexor muscles in older and young adults and with varying levels of cognitive demand imposed. Sixteen young (20.4 ± 2.1 year: 8 men, 9 women) and 17 older adults (68.8 ± 4.4 years: 9 men, 8 women) attended three sessions and performed a 40 s isometric contraction at 5% maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) force followed by an isometric contraction at 30% MVC until task failure. The cognitive demand required during the submaximal contractions in each session differed as follows: (1) high-cognitive demand session where difficult mental math was imposed (counting backward by 13 from a 4-digit number); (2) low-cognitive demand session which involved simple mental math (counting backward by 1); and (3) control session with no mental math. Anxiety was elevated during the high-cognitive demand session compared with other sessions for both age groups but more so for the older adults than young adults (p Older adults had larger force fluctuations than young adults during: (1) the 5% MVC task as cognitive demand increased (p = 0.007), and (2) the fatiguing contraction for all sessions (p = 0.002). Time to task failure did not differ between sessions or age groups (p > 0.05), but the variability between sessions (standard deviation of three sessions) was greater for older adults than young (2.02 ± 1.05 vs. 1.25 ± 0.51 min, p age and was exacerbated when cognitive demand was imposed, and may be related to modulation of synergist and antagonist muscles and an altered neural strategy with age originating from central sources. These data have significant implications for cognitively demanding low-force motor tasks that are relevant to functional and ergonomic in an aging workforce. PMID:24904410
Many subcontractors choose to implement a strategy of “system supply” in order to meetincreasing global competition. They are then confronted with increased demands to take agreater overall responsibility in this role. It is important to investigate the implications of theseresponsibilities before investing in developing the organization, especially for a small- ormedium-sized subcontractor with limited resources. The customer’s view of different demandsdoes not necessarily correspond to how ...
Full Text Available This fMRI study aimed to examine how differences in literacy processing demands may affect cortical activation patterns in 11- to 12-year-old children with dyslexia as compared to children with typical reading skills. 11 children with and 18 without dyslexia were assessed using a reading paradigm based on different stages of literacy development. In the analyses, six regions showed an interaction effect between group and condition in a factorial ANOVA. These regions were selected as regions of interest for further analyses. Overall, the dyslexia group showed cortical hyperactivation compared to the typical group. The difference between the groups tended to increase with increasing processing demands. Differences in cortical activation were not reflected in in-scanner reading performance. The six regions further grouped into three patterns, which are discussed in terms of processing demands, compensatory mechanisms, orthography and contextual facilitation. We conclude that the observed hyperactivation is chiefly a result of compensatory activity, modulated by other factors.
Luo, Rongcong; Dinh, Ngoc-Duy; Chen, Chia-Hung
Chemically synthesized functional hydrogels have been recognized as optimized soft pumps for on-demand fluidic regulation in micro-systems. However, the challenges regarding the slow responses of hydrogels have very much limited their application in effective fluidic flow control. In this study, a heterobifunctional crosslinker (4-hydroxybutyl acrylate)-enabled two-step hydrothermal phase separation process for preparing a highly porous hydrogel with fast response dynamics was investigated for the fabrication of novel microfluidic functional units, such as injectable valves and pumps. The cylinder-shaped hydrogel, with a diameter of 9 cm and a height of 2.5 cm at 25 °C, achieved a size reduction of approximately 70% in less than 30 s after the hydrogels were heated at 40 °C. By incorporating polypyrrole nanoparticles as photothermal transducers, a photo-responsive composite hydrogel was approached and exhibited a remotely triggerable fluidic regulation and pumping ability to generate significant flows, showing on-demand water-in-oil droplet generation by laser switching, whereby the droplet size could be tuned by adjusting the laser intensity and irradiation period with programmable manipulation.
Braennlund, R.; Nordstroem, J.
The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response and welfare effects due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve this objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- and macro-data. In the demand model male and female labour supply is included as conditioning goods. To account for possible changes in labour supply due to increasing carbon taxes we estimate separate labour supply functions for men and women. In the simulations we consider two revenue neutral scenarios that both imply a doubling of the CO 2 tax; one that returns the revenues in the form of a lower VAT and one that subsidise public transport. One conclusion from the simulations is that the CO 2 tax has regional distribution effects, in the sense that household living in sparsely populated areas carry a larger share of the tax burden
Ekirapa-Kiracho, Elizabeth; Waiswa, Peter; Rahman, M Hafizur; Makumbi, Fred; Kiwanuka, Noah; Okui, Olico; Rutebemberwa, Elizeus; Bua, John; Mutebi, Aloysius; Nalwadda, Gorette; Serwadda, David; Pariyo, George W; Peters, David H
Geographical inaccessibility, lack of transport, and financial burdens are some of the demand side constraints to maternal health services in Uganda, while supply side problems include poor quality services related to unmotivated health workers and inadequate supplies. Most public health interventions in Uganda have addressed only selected supply side issues, and universities have focused their efforts on providing maternal services at tertiary hospitals. To demonstrate how reforms at Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS) can lead to making systemic changes that can improve maternal health services, a demand and supply side strategy was developed by working with local communities and national stakeholders. This quasi-experimental trial is conducted in two districts in Eastern Uganda. The supply side component includes health worker refresher training and additions of minimal drugs and supplies, whereas the demand side component involves vouchers given to pregnant women for motorcycle transport and the payment to service providers for antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care. The trial is ongoing, but early analysis from routine health information systems on the number of services used is presented. Motorcyclists in the community organized themselves to accept vouchers in exchange for transport for antenatal care, deliveries and postnatal care, and have become actively involved in ensuring that women obtain care. Increases in antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care were demonstrated, with the number of safe deliveries in the intervention area immediately jumping from Voucher revenues have been used to obtain needed supplies to improve quality and to pay health workers, ensuring their availability at a time when workloads are increasing. Transport and service vouchers appear to be a viable strategy for rapidly increasing maternal care. MakCHS can design strategies together with stakeholders using a learning-by-doing approach to take advantage of
Sheffer, Megan A; Redmond, Lezli A; Kobinsky, Kate H; Keller, Paula A; McAfee, Tim; Fiore, Michael C
Telephone quitlines are a clinically proven and cost-effective population-wide tobacco-dependence treatment, and this option is now available in all 50 states. Yet, only 1% of the smoking population accesses these services annually. This report describes a series of policy, programmatic, and communication initiatives recently implemented in Wisconsin that resulted in a dramatic increase in consumer demand for the Wisconsin Tobacco Quitline (WTQL). In 2007, the Wisconsin legislature voted to increase the state cigarette excise tax rate by $1.00, from $0.77/pack to $1.77/pack effective January 1, 2008. In preparation for the tax increase, the Wisconsin Tobacco Prevention and Control Program, the University of Wisconsin Center for Tobacco Research and Intervention, which manages the WTQL, and the state's quitline service provider, Free & Clear, Inc., collaborated to enhance quitline knowledge, availability, and services with the goal of increasing consumer demand for services. The enhancements included for the first time, a free 2-week supply of over-the-counter nicotine replacement medication for tobacco users who agreed to receive multi-session quitline counseling. A successful statewide earned media campaign intensified the impact of these activities, which were timed to coincide with temporal smoking-cessation behavioral patterns (i.e., New Year's resolutions). As a result, the WTQL fielded a record 27,000 calls during the first 3 months of 2008, reaching nearly 3% of adult Wisconsin smokers. This experience demonstrates that consumer demand for quitline services can be markedly enhanced through policy and communication initiatives to increase the population reach of this evidence-based treatment. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Full Text Available Abstract Background Geographical inaccessibility, lack of transport, and financial burdens are some of the demand side constraints to maternal health services in Uganda, while supply side problems include poor quality services related to unmotivated health workers and inadequate supplies. Most public health interventions in Uganda have addressed only selected supply side issues, and universities have focused their efforts on providing maternal services at tertiary hospitals. To demonstrate how reforms at Makerere University College of Health Sciences (MakCHS can lead to making systemic changes that can improve maternal health services, a demand and supply side strategy was developed by working with local communities and national stakeholders. Methods This quasi-experimental trial is conducted in two districts in Eastern Uganda. The supply side component includes health worker refresher training and additions of minimal drugs and supplies, whereas the demand side component involves vouchers given to pregnant women for motorcycle transport and the payment to service providers for antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care. The trial is ongoing, but early analysis from routine health information systems on the number of services used is presented. Results Motorcyclists in the community organized themselves to accept vouchers in exchange for transport for antenatal care, deliveries and postnatal care, and have become actively involved in ensuring that women obtain care. Increases in antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care were demonstrated, with the number of safe deliveries in the intervention area immediately jumping from Conclusions Transport and service vouchers appear to be a viable strategy for rapidly increasing maternal care. MakCHS can design strategies together with stakeholders using a learning-by-doing approach to take advantage of community resources.
Bolhuis, P. A.; Zwart, R.; Bär, P. R.; de Visser, M.; van der Helm, H. J.
After ischemic exercise tests, performed to detect glycogenoses or myoadenylate deaminase (EC 220.127.116.11) deficiency, the increases in serum lactate and ammonia usually are measured. Determination of hypoxanthine instead of ammonia can also be used to show myoadenylate deaminase deficiency, but HPLC of
Manrique, M.; Asfura, A.; Mukhim, G.
A methodology for rapid assessment of both acceleration spectral peak and 'zero period acceleration' (ZPA) values for virtually any major structure in a nuclear power plant is presented. The methodology is based on spectral peak and ZPA amplification factors, developed from regression analyses of an analytical database. The developed amplification factors are applied to the plant's design ground spectrum to obtain amplified response parameters. A practical application of the methodology is presented. This paper also presents a methodology for calculating acceleration response spectrum curves at any number of desired damping ratios directly from a single known damping ratio spectrum. The methodology presented is particularly useful and directly applicable to older vintage nuclear power plant facilities (i.e. such as those affected by USI A-46). The methodology is based on principles of random vibration theory. The methodology has been implemented in a computer program (SPECGEN). SPECGEN results are compared with results obtained from time history analyses. (orig.)
Nita H. Shah
Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.
Full Text Available Mediterranean countries play a crucial role as olive oil producers and consumers compared to other world regions. This work focusses on the development of the world production, trade and consumption where the Mediterranean region stands out from the rest of the world, in particular, the Northern Mediterranean countries. Aspects such as how communication emphasizes the benefits of the Mediterranean diet - which is a distinctive characteristic of the Mediterranean culture and identity - the Slow Food Movement, the International Olive Council campaigns, and the successive Common Agricultural Policies, that have triggered production, trade and consumption around the world, are here discussed. Such increases and stimuli brought and is still bringing changes to the olive oil sector such as a shifting tendency in production modes as well as modernization of the sector, responding to the increasing demand. These shifts and demand are changing landscapes and are being referred as environmentally harmful to the ecosystems as the production of olive oil is shifting to more intensive production systems and monoculture plantations. These issues are here debated and illustrated with case study examples, referring to the Mediterranean countries, particularly, referring to the Iberian Peninsula.
Carsten Riis Olesen
Full Text Available In 1962 and 1965, 27 (13 and 14 muskox yearlings were translocated from East Greenland (71°N to the Angujaartorfiup Nunaa range in West Greenland (67°N. Angujaartorfiup Nunaa is a 6600 km2 icefree, continental area where caribou are indigenous. The climate is strictly continental with a minimum of precipitation but with abundant vegetation. Aerial surveys in 1990 documented that the muskox population has increased to 2600 heads despite quota-based harvesting since 1988. The annual quota was 200, 300 and 400 for 1988, 1989 and 1990, respectively. Distribution of muskoxen shows a significant preference for low altitude habitats southeast of Kangerlussuaq Airport and around Arnangarnup Qoorua (Paradise valley. Annual population increment averages 30% and the calf crop is around 24% of the population. Yearling recruitment in the population reveals that calf mortality during winter is very limited. About half of the 1-year-old females are served and they eventually give birth to their first calf when they turn 2 years old. With half of the 2-year-old females reproducing, the calf/cow ration ranges between 0.9 and 1.0.
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Imported cases threaten rabies reemergence in rabies-free areas. During 2000-2005, five dog and one human rabies cases were imported into France, a rabies-free country since 2001. The Summer 2004 event led to unprecedented media warnings by the French Public Health Director. We investigated medical practice evolution following the official elimination of rabies in 2001; impact of subsequent episodic rabies importations and national newspaper coverage on demand for and delivery of antirabies prophylaxis; regular transmission of epidemiological developments within the French Antirabies Medical Center (ARMC network; and ARMC discussions on indications of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (RPEP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Annual data collected by the National Reference Center for Rabies NRCR (1989-2006 and the exhaustive database (2000-2005 of 56 ARMC were analyzed. Weekly numbers of patients consulting at ARMC and their RPEP- and antirabies-immunoglobulin (ARIG prescription rates were determined. Autoregressive integrated moving-average modeling and regression with autocorrelated errors were applied to examine how 2000-2005 episodic rabies events and their related national newspaper coverage affected demand for and delivery of RPEP. A slight, continuous decline of rabies-dedicated public health facility attendance was observed from 2000 to 2004. Then, during the Summer 2004 event, patient consultations and RPEP and ARIG prescriptions increased by 84%, 19.7% and 43.4%, respectively. Moreover, elevated medical resource use persisted in 2005, despite communication efforts, without any secondary human or animal case. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated appropriate responsiveness to reemerging rabies cases and effective newspaper reporting, as no secondary case occurred. However, the ensuing demand on medical resources had immediate and long-lasting effects on rabies-related public health resources and expenses. Henceforth, when
Richter, H O; Zetterberg, C; Forsman, M
To investigate if trapezius muscle activity increases over time during visually demanding near work. The vision task consisted of sustained focusing on a contrast-varying black and white Gabor grating. Sixty-six participants with a median age of 38 (range 19-47) fixated the grating from a distance of 65 cm (1.5 D) during four counterbalanced 7-min periods: binocularly through -3.5 D lenses, and monocularly through -3.5 D, 0 D and +3.5 D. Accommodation, heart rate variability and trapezius muscle activity were recorded in parallel. General estimating equation analyses showed that trapezius muscle activity increased significantly over time in all four lens conditions. A concurrent effect of accommodation response on trapezius muscle activity was observed with the minus lenses irrespective of whether incongruence between accommodation and convergence was present or not. Trapezius muscle activity increased significantly over time during the near work task. The increase in muscle activity over time may be caused by an increased need of mental effort and visual attention to maintain performance during the visual tasks to counteract mental fatigue.
Many people in the world express the concern that global warming will become an increasingly serious problem. A rapid increase in population and demand for energy in the Asian region must be discussed in this context. Despite the forecast of an increase in demand for energy, the Asian region is short of oil and natural gas resources. In addition, only less energy can be supplied by renewable energy sources in the Asian region than in the other regions because of high population density. Nuclear energy is an important energy resource for fulfilling the future increasing energy demand in the Asian region and for contributing to the suppression of carbon dioxide emissions. In the Asian region alone, however, we cannot rely limitlessly on LWR which does not use plutonium. According to a scenario analysis, the total capacity of nuclear power plants in the Asian region would reach large scale and the cumulative amount of demand for natural uranium will increase to about 5 million tons in the Asian region alone. Just the nuclear power plants of this scale in Asia alone will rapidly consume the world's cheap natural uranium resources if we rely only on natural uranium. In the Asian region, few countries have embarked on nuclear power generation and the capacity of equipment is still small. Currently, however, many plans for nuclear power generation are being designed. Many Asian countries obviously consider nuclear power generation as a valid option. Many potential policies must be examined in the light of future uncertainty. In the future, both renewable energy and nuclear energy must be resorted to. When nuclear energy is utilized, the use of plutonium and FBR in the Asian region must be taken into account in order to attain continual growth and development. (author)
Mueller, Simone; Lockshin, Larry; Louviere, Jordan J.
the per-capita alcohol consumption is 50% higher than the Australian average and likelihood of dying from alcohol is ten times the national rate. As a consequence, a comprehensive review of the Australian tax system has recommended wine to be taxed on a volumetric basis and that all alcoholic beverages...... be taxed to the same extent per litre of alcohol. Even though Australia has somewhat unique circumstances, the quest for moderate alcohol consumption has become of global importance. Reducing or limiting the level of harm from alcohol consumption has been the focus of government intervention, national......Purpose: The study examines the demand for low and very low alcohol wine products under the current Australian volumetric alcohol system and under an increase of excise tax for wine under an alcohol tax equalisation. The penetration and market share of normal strength and low alcohol wine...
We used fMRI and a 1-back verbal WM task with six levels of difficulty to examine the neurodevelopmental changes in WM function in 40 participants, twenty-four children (ages 9–15 yr and sixteen young adults (ages 20–25 yr. Children and adults both demonstrated an opposing system of cognitive processes with increasing cognitive demand, where areas related to WM (frontal and parietal regions increased in activity, and areas associated with the default mode network decreased in activity. Although there were many similarities in the neural activation patterns associated with increasing verbal WM capacity in children and adults, significant changes in the fMRI responses were seen with age. Adults showed greater load-dependent changes than children in WM in the bilateral superior parietal gyri, inferior frontal and left middle frontal gyri and right cerebellum. Compared to children, adults also showed greater decreasing activation across WM load in the bilateral anterior cingulate, anterior medial prefrontal gyrus, right superior lateral temporal gyrus and left posterior cingulate. These results demonstrate that while children and adults activate similar neural networks in response to verbal WM tasks, the extent to which they rely on these areas in response to increasing cognitive load evolves between childhood and adulthood.
Full Text Available Balance control is fundamental for most daily motor activities, and its impairment is associated with an increased risk of falling. Growing evidence suggests the human cortex is essentially contributing to the control of standing balance. However, the exact mechanisms remain unclear and need further investigation. In a previous study we introduced a new protocol to identify electrocortical activity associated with performance of different continuous balance tasks with the eyes opened. The aim of this study was to extend our previous results by investigating the individual alpha peak frequency (iAPF, a neurophysiological marker of thalamo-cortical information transmission, which remained unconsidered so far in balance research. Thirty-seven subjects completed nine balance tasks varying in surface stability and base of support. Electroencephalography (EEG was recorded from 32 scalp locations throughout balancing with the eyes closed to ensure reliable identification of the iAPF. Balance performance was quantified as the sum of anterior-posterior and medio-lateral movements of the supporting platform. The iAPF, as well as power in the theta, lower alpha and upper alpha frequency bands were determined for each balance task after applying an ICA-based artifact rejection procedure. Higher demands on balance control were associated with a global increase in iAPF and a decrease in lower alpha power. These results may indicate increased thalamo-cortical information transfer and general cortical activation, respectively. In addition, a significant increase in upper alpha activity was observed in the fronto-central region whereas it decreased in the centro-parietal region. Furthermore, midline theta increased with higher task demands probably indicating activation of error detection/processing mechanisms. IAPF as well as theta and alpha power were correlated with platform movements. The results provide new insights into spectral and spatial characteristics
ELEONORA IONELA FOCȘAN
Full Text Available Over time, mankind has tried to find different ways of costs reduction. This subject which we are facing more often nowadays, has been detailed studied, without reaching a general model, and also efficient, regarding the costs reduction. Costs reduction entails a number of benefits over the entity, the most important being: increase revenue and default to the profit, increase productivity, a higher level of services / products offered to clients, and last but not least, the risk mitigation of the economic deficit. Therefore, each entity search different modes to obtain most benefits, for the company to succeed in a competitive market. This article supports the companies, trying to make known a new way of minimizing the total cost of acquisitions, by presenting some hypotheses about the increasing variable demand, proving them, and development of formulas for reducing the costs. The hypotheses presented in the model described below, can be maximally exploited to obtain new models of reducing the total cost, according to the modes of the purchase of entities which approach it.
Sterke, Carolyn Shanty; Panneman, Martien J; Erasmus, Vicki; Polinder, Suzanne; van Beeck, Ed F
To estimate the increased care demand and medical costs caused by falls in nursing homes. There is compelling evidence that falls in nursing homes are preventable. However, proper implementation of evidence-based guidelines to prevent falls is often hindered by insufficient management support, staff time and funding. A three-round Delphi study. A panel of 41 experts, all working in nursing homes in the Netherlands, received three online questionnaires to estimate the extra hours of care needed during the first year after the fall. This was estimated for ten falls categories with different levels of injury severity, in three scenarios, that is a best-case, a typical-case and a worst-case scenario. We calculated the costs of falls by multiplying the mean amount of extra hours that the participants spent on the care for a resident after a fall with their hourly wages. In case of a noninjurious fall, the extra time spent on the faller is on average almost 5 hr, expressed in euros that add to € 193. The extra staff time and costs of falls increased with increasing severity of injury. In the case of a fracture of the lower limb, the extra staff time increased to 132 hr, expressed in euros that is € 4,604. In the worst-case scenario of a fracture of the lower limb, the extra staff time increased to 284 hr, expressed in euros that is € 10,170. Falls in nursing homes result in a great deal of extra staff time spent on care, with extra costs varying between € 193 for a noninjurious fall and € 10,170 for serious falls. This study could aid decision-making on investing in appropriate implementation of falls prevention interventions in nursing homes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Vogan, V M; Morgan, B R; Powell, T L; Smith, M L; Taylor, M J
Working memory (WM) - temporary storage and manipulation of information in the mind - is a key component of cognitive maturation, and structural brain changes throughout development are associated with refinements in WM. Recent functional neuroimaging studies have shown that there is greater activation in prefrontal and parietal brain regions with increasing age, with adults showing more refined, localized patterns of activations. However, few studies have investigated the neural basis of verbal WM development, as the majority of reports examine visuo-spatial WM. We used fMRI and a 1-back verbal WM task with six levels of difficulty to examine the neurodevelopmental changes in WM function in 40 participants, twenty-four children (ages 9-15 yr) and sixteen young adults (ages 20-25 yr). Children and adults both demonstrated an opposing system of cognitive processes with increasing cognitive demand, where areas related to WM (frontal and parietal regions) increased in activity, and areas associated with the default mode network decreased in activity. Although there were many similarities in the neural activation patterns associated with increasing verbal WM capacity in children and adults, significant changes in the fMRI responses were seen with age. Adults showed greater load-dependent changes than children in WM in the bilateral superior parietal gyri, inferior frontal and left middle frontal gyri and right cerebellum. Compared to children, adults also showed greater decreasing activation across WM load in the bilateral anterior cingulate, anterior medial prefrontal gyrus, right superior lateral temporal gyrus and left posterior cingulate. These results demonstrate that while children and adults activate similar neural networks in response to verbal WM tasks, the extent to which they rely on these areas in response to increasing cognitive load evolves between childhood and adulthood. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Westmaas, J Lee; Abroms, Lorien; Bontemps-Jones, Jeuneviette; Bauer, Joseph E; Bade, Jeanine
Most smokers attempt to quit on their own even though cessation aids can substantially increase their chances of success. Millions of smokers seek cessation advice on the Internet, so using it to promote cessation products and services is one strategy for increasing demand for treatments. Little is known, however, about what cessation aids these smokers would find most appealing or what predicts their preferences (eg, age, level of dependence, or timing of quit date). The objective of our study was to gain insight into how Internet seekers of cessation information make judgments about their preferences for treatments, and to identify sociodemographic and other predictors of preferences. An online survey assessing interest in 9 evidence-based cessation products and services was voluntarily completed by 1196 smokers who visited the American Cancer Society's Great American Smokeout (GASO) webpage. Cluster analysis was conducted on ratings of interest. In total, 48% (572/1196) of respondents were "quite a bit" or "very much" interested in nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), 45% (534/1196) in a website that provides customized quitting advice, and 37% (447/1196) in prescription medications. Only 11.5% (138/1196) indicated similar interest in quitlines, and 17% (208/1196) in receiving customized text messages. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis revealed that interest in treatments formed 3 clusters: interpersonal-supportive methods (eg, telephone counseling, Web-based peer support, and in-person group programs), nonsocial-informational methods (eg, Internet programs, tailored emails, and informational booklets), and pharmacotherapy (NRT, bupropion, and varenicline). Only 5% (60/1196) of smokers were "quite a bit" or "very much" interested in interpersonal-supportive methods compared with 25% (298/1196) for nonsocial-informational methods and 33% (399/1196) for pharmacotherapy. Multivariate analyses and follow-up comparisons indicated that level of interest in
Woods, Susan Swartz; Jaén, Carlos Roberto
Health professionals play an important role in addressing patient tobacco use in clinical settings. While there is clear evidence that identifying tobacco use and assisting smokers in quitting affects outcomes, challenges to improve routine, clinician-delivered tobacco intervention persist. The Consumer Demand Initiative has identified simple design principles to increase consumers' use of proven tobacco treatments. Applying these design strategies to activities across the healthcare system, we articulate ten recommendations that can be implemented in the context of most clinical systems where most clinicians work. The recommendations are: (1) reframe the definition of success, (2) portray proven treatments as the best care, (3) redesign the 5A's of tobacco intervention, (4) be ready to deliver the right treatment at the right time, (5) move tobacco from the social history to the problem list, (6) use words as therapy and language that makes sense, (7) fit tobacco treatment into clinical team workflows, (8) embed tobacco treatment into health information technology, (9) make every encounter an opportunity to intervene, and (10) end social disparities for tobacco users. Clinical systems need to change to improve tobacco treatment implementation. The consumer- and clinician-centered recommendations provide a roadmap that focuses on increasing clinician performance through greater understanding of the clinician's role in helping tobacco users, highlighting the value of evidence-based tobacco treatments, employing shared decision-making skills, and integrating routine tobacco treatment into clinical system routines. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Zaira Navas-Anguita; Diego García-Gusano; Diego Iribarren
The penetration of electric vehicles (EV) seems to be a forthcoming reality in the transport sector worldwide, involving significant increases in electricity demand. However, many countries such as Spain have not yet set binding policy targets in this regard. When compared to a business-as-usual situation, this work evaluates the life-cycle consequences of the increased electricity demand of the Spanish road transport technology mix until 2050. This is done by combining Life Cycle Assessment ...
Wiser, R.; Pickle, S.
Retail electricity competition will allow customers to select their own power suppliers and some customers will make purchase decisions based, in part, on their concern for the environment. Green power marketing targets these customers under the assumption that they will pay a premium for ``green`` energy products such as renewable power generation. But renewable energy is not a traditional product because it supplies public goods; for example, a customer supporting renewable energy is unable to capture the environmental benefits that their investment provides to non-participating customers. As with all public goods, there is a risk that few customers will purchase ``green`` power and that many will instead ``free ride`` on others` participation. By free riding, an individual is able to enjoy the benefits of the public good while avoiding payment. This report reviews current green power marketing activities in the electric industry, introduces the extensive academic literature on public goods, free riders, and collective action problems, and explores in detail the implications of this literature for the green marketing of renewable energy. Specifically, the authors highlight the implications of the public goods literature for green power product design and marketing communications strategies. They emphasize four mechanisms that marketers can use to increase customer demand for renewable energy. Though the public goods literature can also contribute insights into the potential rationale for renewable energy policies, they leave most of these implications for future work (see Appendix A for a possible research agenda).
Yang, Yunxia; Xu, Shixia; Xu, Junxiao; Guo, Yan; Yang, Guang
Insects are unique among invertebrates for their ability to fly, which raises intriguing questions about how energy metabolism in insects evolved and changed along with flight. Although physiological studies indicated that energy consumption differs between flying and non-flying insects, the evolution of molecular energy metabolism mechanisms in insects remains largely unexplored. Considering that about 95% of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) is supplied by mitochondria via oxidative phosphorylation, we examined 13 mitochondrial protein-encoding genes to test whether adaptive evolution of energy metabolism-related genes occurred in insects. The analyses demonstrated that mitochondrial DNA protein-encoding genes are subject to positive selection from the last common ancestor of Pterygota, which evolved primitive flight ability. Positive selection was also found in insects with flight ability, whereas no significant sign of selection was found in flightless insects where the wings had degenerated. In addition, significant positive selection was also identified in the last common ancestor of Neoptera, which changed its flight mode from direct to indirect. Interestingly, detection of more positively selected genes in indirect flight rather than direct flight insects suggested a stronger selective pressure in insects having higher energy consumption. In conclusion, mitochondrial protein-encoding genes involved in energy metabolism were targets of adaptive evolution in response to increased energy demands that arose during the evolution of flight ability in insects.
Dantas, B M; Dantas, A L A; Acar, M E D; Cardoso, J C S; Julião, L M Q C; Lima, M F; Taddei, M H T; Arine, D R; Alonso, T; Ramos, M A P; Fajgelj, A
In recent years, Brazilian Nuclear Programme has been reviewed and updated by government authorities in face of the demand for energy supply and its associated environmental constraints. The immediate impact of new national programmes and projects in nuclear field is the increase in the number of exposed personnel and the consequent need for reliable dosimetry services in the country. Several Technical Documents related to internal dosimetry have been released by the International Atomic Energy Agency and International Commission on Radiological Protection. However, standard bioassay procedures and methodologies for bioassay data interpretation are still under discussion and, in some cases, both in routine and emergency internal monitoring, procedures can vary from one laboratory to another and responses may differ markedly among Dosimetry Laboratories. Thus, it may be difficult to interpret and use bioassay data generated from different laboratories of a network. The main goal of this work is to implement a National Network of Laboratories aimed to provide reliable internal monitoring services in Brazil. The establishment of harmonised in vivo and in vitro radioanalytical techniques, dose assessment methods and the implementation of the ISO/IEC 17025 requirements will result in the recognition of technical competence of the network.
Meding, J B; Ritter, M A; Davis, K E; Farris, A
The strain on clinic and surgeon resources resulting from a rise in demand for total knee replacement (TKR) requires reconsideration of when and how often patients need to be seen for follow-up. Surgeons will otherwise require increased paramedical staff or need to limit the number of TKRs they undertake. We reviewed the outcome data of 16 414 primary TKRs undertaken at our centre to determine the time to re-operation for any reason and for specific failure mechanisms. Peak risk years for failure were determined by comparing the conditional probability of failure, the number of failures divided by the total number of TKRs cases, for each year. The median times to failure for the most common failure mechanisms were 4.9 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.7 to 10.7) for femoral and tibial loosening, 1.9 years (IQR 0.8 to 3.9) for infection, 3.1 years (IQR 1.6 to 5.5) for tibial collapse and 5.6 years (IQR 3.4 to 9.3) for instability. The median time to failure for all revisions was 3.3 years (IQR 1.2 to 8.5), with an overall revision rate of 1.7% (n = 282). Results from our patient population suggest that patients be seen for follow-up at six months, one year, three years, eight years, 12 years, and every five years thereafter. Patients with higher pain in the early post-operative period or high body mass index (≥ 41 kg/m(2)) should be monitored more closely.
Klinar, Ivana; Balazin, Ana; Basić, Martina; Plantas, Igor; Biskupić, Kresimir
The aim of the study was to explore characteristics of the users of the Interactive Service "Your Questions" that is based on E-mail health consultations. We wanted to find out what motivated users to use it, were they satisfied with it and what were its impacts on their health behavior. Therefore, we developed a Web survey and invited 2,747 users to take part in it. 919 (33.5%) of users responded. Results showed that the majority of respondents were women (79.1%) and that most hold at least a college degree (52.4%). The Service was mostly used for obtaining information about certain medical symptoms or medical conditions (50.1%), for a second opinion on a diagnosis (18.6%) and for more information about medical treatment (14.4%). In terms of Service features, it was used because of its convenience with regard to time (38.7%) and a sense of privacy (25.7%). Before posting a question to the Service, 93.2% of the respondents searched for health articles on the PLIVAzdravlje portal while 90% of them read the Questions and Answers database. Over half of them (61.8%) posted their question after they already visited their physicians on that particular issue. Nevertheless, 48% of them were encouraged to visit their physicians after they received the answer. The results show an important trend of increased demand for e-mail health consultation and the need for reliable medical information, with one thousand questions submitted to the Service in the observed period of 40 days. If the source of medical information is reliable, as in case of our Service as well as other forms of e-mail health consultations, it can have positive impact on valuable physician-patient communication based on knowledge and mutual understanding.
Pan, F.; Frieder, C.; Applebaum, S.; Manahan, D. T.
The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, is a major commercial species in global aquaculture. Ocean acidification is having a negative effect on larval production of this species, so the mechanisms of this impact are of considerable interest. Formation of new shell in C. gigas during the first 2-days post-fertilization results in a rapid six-fold increase in total mass. This period of early development has high sensitivity to changes in carbonate chemistry, in particular aragonite saturation state (Ω). An elevated energy cost for calcification at low Ω is often invoked as a mechanism. In this study, we characterized the developmental progression of first shell formation, total metabolic expenditure, and underlying biochemical processes of energy allocation during early development of C. gigas, under control (Ω >> 1) and undersaturated conditions (Ω pump activity (Na+, K+-ATPase) between the two treatments. We conclude that early development to the shelled-veliger larval stage does not require more energy at undersaturation. This finding helps constrain potential mechanisms of larval sensitivity to ocean acidification and narrows the focus for possible mitigation strategies for oyster aquaculture production.
Universal health access will not be achieved unless women are cared for in their own communities and are empowered to take decisions about their own health in a supportive environment. This will only be achieved by community-based demand side interventions for maternal health access. In this review article, we highlight three common strategies to increase demand-side barriers to maternal healthcare access and identify the main challenges that still need to be addressed for these strategies to be effective.
Cedefop - European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 2012
The main findings of Cedefop's latest skill demand and supply forecast for the European Union (EU) for 2010-20, indicate that although further economic troubles will affect the projected number of job opportunities, the major trends, including a shift to more skill-intensive jobs and more jobs in services, will continue. Between 2008 and 2010…
Kimberly A. Novick; Darren L. Ficklin; Paul C. Stoy; Christopher A. Williams; Gil Bohrer; Andrew C. Oishi; Shirley A. Papuga; Peter D. Blanken; Asko Noormets; Benjamin N. Sulman; Russell L. Scott; Lixin Wang; Richard P. Phillips
Soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water independently limit-and profoundly affect-vegetation productivity and water use during periods of hydrologic stress1-4. Disentangling the impact of these two drivers on ecosystem carbon and water cycling is difficult because they are often correlated, and experimental tools for manipulating...
Fiskum, Tove Anita; Jacobsen, Karl
In children's lives there are a lot of instigators for actions in every milieu and situation. When children grow older, the cortical activity starts to regulate the action instigation from the limbic system. The school system makes demands of action regulation for children. In outdoor education the many instigators for actions are not under the…
Macica, Carolyn M; King, Helen E; Wang, Meina; McEachon, Courtney L; Skinner, Catherine W; Tommasini, Steven M
The goal of this study was to investigate the effects of reproductive adaptations to mineral homeostasis on the skeleton in a mouse model of compromised mineral homeostasis compared to adaptations in control, unaffected mice. During pregnancy, maternal adaptations to high mineral demand include more
Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.
Rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") have been observed for many decades. Lightning jumps have been well correlated to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The main focus of lightning jump work has been on the development of lightning algorithms to be used in real-time assessment of storm intensity. However, in these studies it is typically assumed that the updraft "increases" without direct measurements of the vertical motion, or specification of which updraft characteristic actually increases (e.g., average speed, maximum speed, or convective updraft volume). Therefore, an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling rapid increases in total flash rate to increases in updraft speed and volume must be understood in order to ultimately relate lightning occurrence to severe storm metrics. Herein, we use polarimetric, multi-Doppler, and lightning mapping array measurements to provide physical context as to why rapid increases in total lightning are closely tied to severe and hazardous weather.
Carson, M.M.; Stram, B.
Enron Corp., Houston, in an extensive study of U.S. natural-gas supply and demand through the year 2000, has found that the U.S. gas-resource base is 1,200 tcf. Despite current weaknesses in natural-gas prices, demand growth will be strong although affected by oil-price assumptions. This paper reports on highlights in the areas of reserves and production which include gains in both categories in the Rockies/Wyoming, San Juan basin, and Norphlet trends (offshore Alabama). The Midcontinent/Hugoton area exhibits reserve declines in a period of flat production. In the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) offshore, both production and reserves decline over the forecast period. These projections are derived from a base-case price of $4.07/MMBTU by 2000. U.S. gas production exhibits a production decline in a low oil-price case from 19 to 16.4 tcf by 2000, if prices are 30% below the base case, that is, $2.93/MMBTU. Gains in commercial gas use are strong under either scenario of a base oil price of $29.80 in 1990 dollars in the year 2000 or a low oil price of $20.50 in 1990 dollars in 2000. Demand for natural gas for power generation grows as much as 1.5 tcf by 2000 in the Enron base case and by 300 bcf by 2000 in the low crude-oil price case
Full Text Available The penetration of electric vehicles (EV seems to be a forthcoming reality in the transport sector worldwide, involving significant increases in electricity demand. However, many countries such as Spain have not yet set binding policy targets in this regard. When compared to a business-as-usual situation, this work evaluates the life-cycle consequences of the increased electricity demand of the Spanish road transport technology mix until 2050. This is done by combining Life Cycle Assessment and Energy Systems Modelling under three alternative scenarios based on the low, medium, or high penetration rate of EV. In all cases, EV deployment is found to involve a relatively small percentage (<4% of the final electricity demand. Wind power and waste-to-energy plants arise as the main technologies responsible for meeting the increased electricity demand associated with EV penetration. When considering a high market penetration (20 million EV by 2050, the highest annual impacts potentially caused by the additional electricity demand are 0.93 Mt CO2 eq, 0.25 kDALY, and 30.34 PJ in terms of climate change, human health, and resources, respectively. Overall, EV penetration is concluded to slightly affect the national power generation sector, whereas it could dramatically reduce the life-cycle impacts associated with conventional transport.
Greve, Christian; Hortobagyi, Tibor; Bongers, Raoul M.
Healthy humans are able to place light and heavy objects in small and large target locations with remarkable accuracy. Here we examine how dexterity demand and physical demand affect flexibility in joint coordination and end-effector kinematics when healthy young adults perform an upper extremity
Hupert, Nathaniel; Wattson, Daniel; Cuomo, Jason; Benson, Samuel
Mass prophylaxis against infectious disease outbreaks carries the risk of medication-related adverse events (MRAEs). The authors sought to define the relationship between the rapidity of mass prophylaxis dispensing and the subsequent demand for emergency health services due to predictable MRAEs. The authors created a spreadsheet-based computer model that calculates scenario-specific predicted daily MRAE rates from user inputs by applying a probability distribution to the reported timing of MRAEs. A hypothetical two- to ten-day prophylaxis campaign for one million people using recent data from both smallpox vaccination and anthrax chemoprophylaxis campaigns was modeled. The length of a mass prophylaxis campaign plays an important role in determining the subsequent intensity in emergency services utilization due to real or suspected adverse events. A two-day smallpox vaccination scenario would produce an estimated 32,000 medical encounters and 1,960 hospitalizations, peaking at 5,246 health care encounters six days after the start of the campaign; in contrast, a ten-day campaign would lead to 41% lower peak surge, with a maximum of 3,106 encounters on the busiest day, ten days after initiation of the campaign. MRAEs with longer lead times, such as those associated with anthrax chemoprophylaxis, exhibit less variability based on campaign length (e.g., 124 out of an estimated 1,400 hospitalizations on day 20 after a two-day campaign versus 103 on day 24 after a ten-day campaign). The duration of a mass prophylaxis campaign may have a substantial impact on the timing and peak number of clinically significant MRAEs, with very short campaigns overwhelming existing emergency department (ED) capacity to treat real or suspected medication-related injuries. While better reporting of both incidence and timing of MRAEs in future prophylaxis campaigns should improve the application of this model to community-based emergency preparedness planning, these results highlight the need
Land use change is a central issue in the sustainability debate, because of its impacts on e.g. climate change, water availability and quality, soil quality and erosion, and biodiversity. Continuing population growth, shifting diets towards higher meat consumption and increasing bioenergy demands
Smed, Sinne; Andersen, Laura Mørch
of consuming conventional vegetables on demand for organic foods for six different segments of Danish households. Three of these segments are positive towards organics whereas the remaining three segments are negative or indifferent. Using the double hurdle model we estimate partial effects of both directly...... and indirectly obtained information as well as prices. The results show, that there are larger effects of information for households where the information is in accordance with initial knowledge and attitudes, hence the positive segments react more to information whereas the negative segments react more......Based on a unique and very detailed panel dataset covering consumption of organically and conventionally produced vegetables in the years 2005 - 2007, we examine the effects of information about positive health effects of consuming organic vegetables and information about negative health effects...
Aghion, E; Jan, L; Meshi, L; Goldman, J
Magnesium (Mg) and Mg-alloys are being considered as implantable biometals. Despite their excellent biocompatibility and good mechanical properties, their rapid corrosion is a major impediment precluding their widespread acceptance as implantable biomaterials. Here, we investigate the potential for rapid solidification to increase the corrosion resistance of Mg alloys. To this end, the effect of rapid solidification on the environmental and stress corrosion behavior of the AZ80 Mg alloy vs. its conventionally cast counterpart was evaluated in simulated physiological electrolytes. The microstructural characteristics were examined by optical microscopy, SEM, TEM, and X-ray diffraction analysis. The corrosion behavior was evaluated by immersion, salt spraying, and potentiodynamic polarization. Stress corrosion resistance was assessed by Slow Strain Rate Testing. The results indicate that the corrosion resistance of rapidly solidified ribbons is significantly improved relative to the conventional cast alloy due to the increased Al content dissolved in the α-Mg matrix and the correspondingly reduced presence of the β-phase (Mg17 Al12 ). Unfortunately, extrusion consolidated solidified ribbons exhibited a substantial reduction in the environmental performance and stress corrosion resistance. This was mainly attributed to the detrimental effect of the extrusion process, which enriched the iron impurities and increased the internal stresses by imposing a higher dislocation density. In terms of immersion tests, the average corrosion rate of the rapidly solidified ribbons was <0.4 mm/year compared with ∼2 mm/year for the conventionally cast alloy and 26 mm/year for the rapidly solidified extruded ribbons. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Tippett, Vivienne C; Toloo, Ghasem Sam; Eeles, David; Ting, Joseph Y S; Aitken, Peter J; Fitzgerald, Gerard J
To determine the impact of the introduction of universal access to ambulance services via the implementation of the Community Ambulance Cover (CAC) program in Queensland in 2003-04. The study involved a 10-year (2000-01 to 2009-10) retrospective analysis of routinely collected data reported by the Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) and by the Council of Ambulance Authorities. The data were analysed for the impact of policy changes that resulted in universal access to ambulance services in Queensland. QAS is a statewide, publically funded ambulance service. In Queensland, ambulance utilisation rate (AUR) per 1000 persons grew by 41% over the decade or 3.9% per annum (10-year mean=149.8, 95% CI: 137.3-162.3). The AUR mean after CAC was significantly higher for urgent incidents than for non-urgent ones. However projection modelling demonstrates that URs after the introduction of CAC were significantly lower than the projected utilisation for the same period. The introduction of universal access under the Community Ambulance Cover program in Queensland has not had any significant independent long-term impact on demand overall. There has been a reduction in the long-term growth rate, which may have been contributed to by an 'appropriate use' public awareness program.
Elmusharaf, Khalifa; Byrne, Elaine; O'Donovan, Diarmuid
Universal health access will not be achieved unless women are cared for in their own communities and are empowered to take decisions about their own health in a supportive environment. This will only be achieved by community-based demand side interventions for maternal health access. In this review article, we highlight three common strategies to increase demand-side barriers to maternal healthcare access and identify the main challenges that still need to be addressed for these strategies to be effective. Common demand side strategies can be grouped into three categories:(i) Financial incentives/subsidies; (ii) Enhancing patient transfer, and; (iii) Community involvement. The main challenges in assessing the effectiveness or efficacy of these interventions or strategies are the lack of quality evidence on their outcome and impact and interventions not integrated into existing health or community systems. However, what is highlighted in this review and overlooked in most of the published literature on this topic is the lack of knowledge about the context in which these strategies are to be implemented. We suggest three challenges that need to be addressed to create a supportive environment in which these demand-side strategies can effectively improve access to maternal health services. These include: addressing decision-making norms, engaging in intergenerational dialogue, and designing contextually appropriate communication strategies.
Colwill, Jack M; Cultice, James M; Kruse, Robin L
We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians' and general internists' workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000-44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation's foundation of primary care for adults.
Nishikawa, T.; Izbicki, J. A.; Hevesi, J. A.; Martin, P.
Ground water historically has been the sole source of water supply for the community of Joshua Tree in the Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin of the Morongo ground-water basin in the southern Mojave Desert. Joshua Basin Water District (JBWD) supplies water to the community from the underlying Joshua Tree ground-water subbasin, and ground-water withdrawals averaging about 960 acre-ft/yr have resulted in as much as 35 ft of drawdown. As growth continues in the desert, ground-water resources may need to be supplemented using imported water. To help meet future demands, JBWD plans to construct production wells in the adjacent Copper Mountain ground-water subbasin. To manage the ground-water resources and to identify future mitigating measures, a thorough understanding of the ground-water system is needed. To this end, field and numerical techniques were applied to determine the distribution and quantity of natural recharge. Field techniques included the installation of instrumented boreholes in selected washes and at a nearby control site. Numerical techniques included the use of a distributed-parameter watershed model and a ground-water flow model. The results from the field techniques indicated that as much as 70 acre-ft/yr of water infiltrated downward through the two principal washes during the study period (2001-3). The results from the watershed model indicated that the average annual recharge in the ground-water subbasins is about 160 acre-ft/yr. The results from the calibrated ground-water flow model indicated that the average annual recharge for the same area is about 125 acre-ft/yr. Although the field and numerical techniques were applied to different scales (local vs. large), all indicate that natural recharge in the Joshua Tree area is very limited; therefore, careful management of the limited ground-water resources is needed. Moreover, the calibrated model can now be used to estimate the effects of different water-management strategies on the ground
Carr, Joshua K.; Fournier, Neil M.; Lehmann, Hugo
We examined whether increasing retrieval difficulty in a spatial memory task would promote the recruitment of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) similar to what is typically observed during remote memory retrieval. Rats were trained on the hidden platform version of the Morris Water Task and tested three or 30 d later. Retrieval difficulty was…
Banse, M.A.H.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van H.; Woltjer, G.B.
The aim of this paper is to show the consequences of a model extension towards the presentation of by-product in the production of biofuels. By-products can be used as a substitute for feed grain use in livestock production. A boost in biofuel production will also show a strong increase in the
Hoeve ten, Marieke
In Sweden as well as in The Netherlands energy policy is increasingly aiming at extending the use of renew-able sources. In accordance with the targets of the European Union, both countries have formulated national targets for the year 2020. For wind ener
Agogino, Alice M.
Energy efficiency has recently come to the forefront of energy debates, especially in the state of California. This focus on efficiency has been driven by the deregulation of electrical-energy distribution, the increasing price of electricity, and the implementation of rolling blackouts. Currently, buildings consume over 1/3 of primary energy, and 2/3 of all electricity produced in the U.S. Commercial buildings consume roughly half of this, and lighting is responsible for approximately 40% of...
Bartels, Mette Damkjær; Boye, Kit; Larsen, Anders Rhod
In Copenhagen, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) accounted for <15 isolates per year during 1980-2002. However, since 2003 an epidemic increase has been observed, with 33 MRSA cases in 2003 and 110 in 2004. We analyzed these 143 cases epidemiologically and characterized isolates ...... and soft tissue infections dominated. CO-MRSA with diverse genetic backgrounds is rapidly emerging in a low MRSA prevalence area. Udgivelsesdato: October...
Wild, Birgit; Alaei, Saeed; Bengtson, Per; Bodé, Samuel; Boeckx, Pascal; Schnecker, Jörg; Mayerhofer, Werner; Rütting, Tobias
Plant primary production at mid and high latitudes is often limited by low soil N availability. It has been hypothesized that plants can indirectly increase soil N availability via root exudation, i.e., via the release of easily degradable organic compounds such as sugars into the soil. These compounds can stimulate microbial activity and extracellular enzyme synthesis, and thus promote soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition ("priming effect"). Even more, increased C availability in the rhizosphere might specifically stimulate the synthesis of enzymes targeting N-rich polymers such as proteins that store most of the soil N, but are too large for immediate uptake ("N mining"). This effect might be particularly important in boreal forests, where plants often maintain high primary production in spite of low soil N availability. We here tested the hypothesis that increased C availability promotes protein depolymerization, and thus soil N availability. In a laboratory incubation experiment, we added 13C-labeled glucose to a range of soil samples derived from boreal forests across Sweden, and monitored the release of CO2 by C mineralization, distinguishing between CO2 from the added glucose and from the native, unlabeled soil organic C (SOC). Using a set of 15N pool dilution assays, we further measured gross rates of protein depolymerization (the breakdown of proteins into amino acids) and N mineralization (the microbial release of excess N as ammonium). Comparing unamended control samples, we found a high variability in C and N mineralization rates, even when normalized by SOC content. Both C and N mineralization were significantly correlated to SOM C/N ratios, with high C mineralization at high C/N and high N mineralization at low C/N, suggesting that microorganisms adjusted C and N mineralization rates to the C/N ratio of their substrate and released C or N that was in excess. The addition of glucose significantly stimulated the mineralization of native SOC in soils
Alghalandis, Saeid Mansouri
Increasing population and economic growth in developing countries has changed their energy consumption patterns. So, the conventional systems of energy supply have become inadequate to deal with rising energy demand. Iran has great reservoirs of natural gas and its natural gas usage is far more than average international standard. Dominance of natural gas share in energy basket in Iran, make it necessary to consider energy efficient technologies and solutions for this domain. In this study new technologies for increasing energy efficiency (EE) in natural gas delivery and consumption sub sectors are discussed and evaluated according to available infrastructures in Iran.
Li, Hong-Jiang; Han, Hong-Xiu; Feng, Dong-Fu
Reports describing a rapid increase in the cystic volume of anaplastic astrocytoma (AA) in a short time frame are rare. The present study reports the case of a 68-year-old male who was admitted to the No. 9 People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine (Shanghai, China), with a small cystic brain lesion and positive immunological testing for cysticercosis. Head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed a cystic lesion, 6 mm in diameter, in the left frontal lobe. Neurocysticercosis was suspected and the patient was treated with a clinical trial of albendazole and steroids. A period of 25 days later, the patient's condition had deteriorated, and MRI revealed a cystic lesion in the left frontal lobe; thereafter, the cystic lesion was removed and a diagnosis of AA was established. The tumor was soft, ivory white and gelatinous due to myxoid degeneration. In this case, tumor-related angiogenesis and microvascular extravasation (blood-brain barrier disruption) may have been the main cause of the rapid increase in the cystic volume in such a short time frame. The similarity of the glioma and cysticercus antigens may have been the cause of the positive reactions in the cystic fluid. The present study reports the rare occurrence of a rapid increase of cystic volume and potential diagnostic difficulties. PMID:27698865
Seppelt, Ralf; Beckmann, Michael; Ceauşu, Silvia; Cord, Anna F.; Gerstner, Katharina; Gurevitch, Jessica; Kambach, Stephan; Klotz, Stefan; Mendenhall, Chase; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Powell, Kristin; Verburg, Peter H.; Verhagen, Willem; Winter, Marten; Newbold, Tim
Abstract Biodiversity conservation and agricultural production are often seen as mutually exclusive objectives. Strategies for reconciling them are intensely debated. We argue that harmonization between biodiversity conservation and crop production can be improved by increasing our understanding of the underlying relationships between them. We provide a general conceptual framework that links biodiversity and agricultural production through the separate relationships between land use and biodiversity and between land use and production. Hypothesized relationships are derived by synthesizing existing empirical and theoretical ecological knowledge. The framework suggests nonlinear relationships caused by the multifaceted impacts of land use (composition, configuration, and intensity). We propose solutions for overcoming the apparently dichotomous aims of maximizing either biodiversity conservation or agricultural production and suggest new hypotheses that emerge from our proposed framework. PMID:29599534
Hall, Geoffrey B C; Witelson, Sandra F; Szechtman, Henry; Nahmias, Claude
Two [O(15)] PET studies assessed sex differences regional brain activation in the recognition of emotional stimuli. Study I revealed that the recognition of emotion in visual faces resulted in bilateral frontal activation in women, and unilateral right-sided activation in men. In study II, the complexity of the emotional face task was increased through tje addition of associated auditory emotional stimuli. Men again showed unilateral frontal activation, in this case to the left; whereas women did not show bilateral frontal activation, but showed greater limbic activity. These results suggest that when processing broader cross-modal emotional stimuli, men engage more in associative cognitive strategies while women draw more on primary emotional references.
Full Text Available Sustainable development as general acceptance is that form of ensuring the bio-socio-economic needs of the present generation without affecting the existence and development opportunities for the generations to come. Secondary, the concept refers to the protection of the environment that is at present greatly affected by externalities of the socio-economic activity of previous and present generations. As it is shown in this paper the negative effects of the environmental pollution records higher and higher values in a short period of time of which we analyze their impact on population health, focusing on the situation of Romania. I started the analysis from the assumptions that the health of an organism is a normal physical and physiological state, being the opposite of the concept disease. The most common diseases are: hereditary, infectious, internal, infantile, autoimmune, allergic, socio-professional, tumorous, degenerative diseases etc. Of these infant, allergic, tumorous and autoimmune diseases are mainly generated by environmental pollution. Extremely special, regarding the incidence of harmful environmental factors, are the socio-professional diseases or of civilization that are represented by those diseases that are more common in industrialized countries than in the so called third world. In respect to air pollution-generated illnesses with products resulting from burning fossil fuels are highlighted respiratory diseases, immunological diseases, benign and malignant neoplasm of the airways and also dermatitis. Most activities follow sooner or later to increase welfare. Economic growth, environmental protection as well as fulfilling social needs of individuals are only a few elements that lead to the increase of population welfare. If we accept the above mentioned things, then it means that promoting the realisation of sustainable development based on clean and renewable resources and the rationally using the conventional ones is an
Wise, Marissa D; Little, Alison A; Holliman, Jaime Bruce; Wise, Paul H; Wang, C Jason
To determine whether Early Intervention programs have the capacity to accommodate the expected increase in referrals following the American Academy of Pediatrics' 2007 recommendation for universal screening of 18- and 24-month-old children for Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). We conducted a telephone survey of all state and territory early. Intervention coordinators about the demand for ASD evaluations, services, and program capacity. We used multivariate models to examine state-level factors associated with the capacity to serve children with ASD. Fifty-two of the 57 coordinators (91%) responded to the survey. Most states reported an increase in demand for ASD-related evaluations (65%) and services (58%) since 2007. In addition, 46% reported that their current capacity poses a challenge to meeting the 45-day time limit for creating the Individualized Family Service Plan. Many states reported that they have shortages of ASD-related personnel, including behavioral therapists (89%), speech-language pathologists (82%), and occupational therapists (79%). Among states that reported the number of service hours (n = 34) 44% indicated that children with ASD receive 5 or fewer weekly service hours. Multivariate models showed that states with a higher percentage of African-American and Latino children were more likely to have provider shortages whereas states with higher population densities were more likely to offer a greater number of service hours. Many Early Intervention programs may not have the capability to address the expected increase in demand for ASD services. Early Intervention programs will likely need enhanced resources to provide all children with suspected ASD with appropriate evaluations and services.
Shin, Dong-Youn; Kim, Minsung
Despite the inherent fabrication simplicity of piezo drop-on-demand inkjet printing, the non-uniform deposition of colourants or electroluminescent organic materials leads to faulty display products, and hence, the importance of rapid jetting status inspection and accurate droplet volume measurement increases from a process perspective. In this work, various jetting status inspections and droplet volume measurement methods are reviewed by discussing their advantages and disadvantages, and then, the opportunities for the developed prototype with a scanning mirror are explored. This work demonstrates that jetting status inspection of 384 fictitious droplets can be performed within 17 s with maximum and minimum measurement accuracies of 0.2 ± 0.5 μ m for the fictitious droplets of 50 μ m in diameter and -1.2 ± 0.3 μ m for the fictitious droplets of 30 μ m in diameter, respectively. In addition to the new design of an inkjet monitoring instrument with a scanning mirror, two novel methods to accurately measure the droplet volume by amplifying a minute droplet volume difference and then converting to other physical properties are suggested and the droplet volume difference of ±0.3% is demonstrated to be discernible using numerical simulations, even with the low measurement accuracy of 1 μ m . When the fact is considered that the conventional vision-based method with a CCD camera requires the optical measurement accuracy less than 25 nm to measure the volume of an in-flight droplet in the nominal diameter of 50 μ m at the same volume measurement accuracy, the suggested method with the developed prototype offers a whole new opportunity to inkjet printing for display applications.
Ennis, Gretchen; Tofa, Matalena; Finlayson, Mary; U'Ren, Julie
A rapidly expanding natural-resource extraction industry and a growing military presence mean an increasingly male-skewed population for the city of Darwin, Australia. This has sparked concerns about the potential for increased violence against women. In this article, we present qualitative research detailing the views of 13 participants from 10 women's support services in the Darwin area. We argue that women's support services bear witness to and are tasked with responding to the impacts of population change on women, yet their work is undermined by uncertainties that stem from neoliberal funding rationales and limited demands on companies to address social issues. © The Author(s) 2016.
Nahla M. Wassim
Full Text Available Members of Aedes caspius mosquitoes are incriminated to be a potential reservoir of “Rift Valley Fever Virus” (RVF during interepizootic periods in Egypt. Ae. caspius contains two distinct forms which are morphologically indistinguishable but differ in physiology and behavior; Ae. caspius form (a requires a blood meal for each egg batch(anautogeny, is unable to mate in confined spaces(eurygamous. The second form (b lays egg batch without blood meal (autogenous and can mate in confined spaces (stenogamous. In this work, we collected the autogenous and anautogenous forms of Ae. caspius from two different breeding habitats in the Qalyubia Governorate. Analysis of the Drosophila ace-Orthologous acetylecholinesterase gene revealed that a single polymorphic region characterized each species. Based on this region, specific primers were used to amplify the entire section of intron II, sections of Exon 2 and Exon 3 of ace-2 gene for differentiating the complex species of mosquitoes. The amplicons of anautogenous form sized 441 pb and increase 116 bp than autogenous form of Ae. caspius. High rates of point mutations were addressed; deletion/insertion events are 120 bases. The transversion mutations were 44 bases and were relatively close to the transtion mutations 43 base. The genetic distance was 0.01 between the two forms.
Wang, Qian; Bailey, Charles G; Ng, Cynthia
was sufficient to decrease cell growth and mTORC1 signaling in prostate cancer cells. These cells maintained levels of amino acid influx through androgen receptor-mediated regulation of LAT3 expression and ATF4 regulation of LAT1 expression after amino acid deprivation. These responses remained intact in primary......L-Type amino acid transporters such as LAT1 and LAT3 mediate the uptake of essential amino acids. Here, we report that prostate cancer cells coordinate the expression of LAT1 and LAT3 to maintain sufficient levels of leucine needed for mTORC1 signaling and cell growth. Inhibiting LAT function...... prostate cancer, as indicated by high levels of LAT3 in primary disease, and by increased levels of LAT1 after hormone ablation and in metastatic lesions. Taken together, our results show how prostate cancer cells respond to demands for increased essential amino acids by coordinately activating amino acid...
Carré, Justin M; Geniole, Shawn N; Ortiz, Triana L; Bird, Brian M; Videto, Amber; Bonin, Pierre L
Although traditional wisdom suggests that baseline levels of testosterone (T) promote aggressive behavior, decades of research have produced findings that have been largely weak and inconsistent. However, more recent experimental work suggests that exogenous administration of T rapidly potentiates amygdala and hypothalamus responses to angry facial expressions. Notably, these brain regions are rich in androgen receptors and play a key role in modulating aggressive behavior in animal models. The present experiment extends this work by examining whether acutely increasing T potentiates aggressive behavior in men. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, between-subject design, healthy adult men (n = 121) were administered either T or placebo, and subsequently engaged in a well-validated decision-making game that measures aggressive behavior in response to social provocation. In light of prior correlational research, we also assessed the extent to which T's effects on aggressive behavior would depend on variability in trait dominance and/or trait self-control. Exogenous T on its own did not modulate aggressive behavior. However, T's effects on aggression were strongly influenced by variation in trait dominance and trait self-control. Specifically, T caused an increase in aggressive behavior, but only among men scoring relatively high in trait dominance or low in trait self-control. These findings are the first to demonstrate that T can rapidly (within 60 minutes) potentiate aggressive behavior, but only among men with dominant or impulsive personality styles. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Bruno, Sergio; De Benedictis, Michele; La Scala, Massimo; Wangensteen, Ivar
The paper is aimed at showing how demand-side policies for increasing inner demand elasticity could help in reducing market inefficiencies generated by transfer limits on interconnections, with a special regard to energy imports dependent countries. In order to develop the studies in a realistic environment, a model for the Italian electricity market has been developed. Test results show effects of variations in demand elasticity on the national social surplus and congestion costs. It will be shown how an increase of demand elasticity can counterbalance the need of additional transfer capacity in reducing cross-border congestions. (author)
Todd C Atwood
Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.
Alemu, Mohammed Hussen; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Vedel, Suzanne Elizabeth
demand as this would determine the success of product development. In this study, we present one of the first thorough assessments of consumer demand for an insect-based food. We assessed the demand in terms of Kenyan consumer preferences and willingness to pay for buns containing varying amounts...
Pezzoli, Lorenzo; Andrews, Nick; Ronveaux, Olivier
Vaccination programmes targeting disease elimination aim to achieve very high coverage levels (e.g. 95%). We calculated the precision of different clustered lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) designs in computer-simulated surveys to provide local health officers in the field with preset LQAS plans to simply and rapidly assess programmes with high coverage targets. We calculated sample size (N), decision value (d) and misclassification errors (alpha and beta) of several LQAS plans by running 10 000 simulations. We kept the upper coverage threshold (UT) at 90% or 95% and decreased the lower threshold (LT) progressively by 5%. We measured the proportion of simulations with d unvaccinated individuals if the coverage was LT% (pLT) to calculate alpha (1-pLT). We divided N in clusters (between 5 and 10) and recalculated the errors hypothesising that the coverage would vary in the clusters according to a binomial distribution with preset standard deviations of 0.05 and 0.1 from the mean lot coverage. We selected the plans fulfilling these criteria: alpha LQAS plans dividing the lot in five clusters with N = 50 (5 x 10) and d = 4 to evaluate programmes with 95% coverage target and d = 7 to evaluate programmes with 90% target. These plans will considerably increase the feasibility and the rapidity of conducting the LQAS in the field.
Historically, the Israeli health care system has been considered a high-performance system, providing universal, affordable, high-quality care to all residents. However, a decline in the ratio of physicians to population that reached a modern low in 2006, an approximate ten-percentage-point decline in the share of publicly financed health care between 1995 and 2009, and legislative mandates that favored private insurance have altered Israel's health care system for the worse. Many Israelis now purchase private health insurance to supplement the state-sponsored universal care coverage, and they end up spending more out of pocket even for services covered by the entitlement. Additionally, many publicly paid physicians moonlight at private facilities to earn more money. In this article I recommend that Israel increase public funding for health care and adopt reforms to address the rising demand for privately funded care and the problem of publicly paid physicians who moonlight at private facilities.
Marín, Dolores; Martín, Mercedes; Serrot, Patricia H; Sabater, Bartolomé
Experimental and theoretical flux models have been developed to reveal the influence of sun flecks and increasing CO2 concentrations on the energy and entropy balances of the leaf. The rapid and wide range of fluctuations in light intensity under field conditions were simulated in a climatic gas exchange chamber and we determined the energy and entropy balance of the leaf based on radiation and gas exchange measurements. It was estimated that the energy of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) accounts for half of transpiration, which is the main factor responsible for the exportation of the entropy generated in photosynthesis (Sg) out of the leaf in order to maintain functional the photosynthetic machinery. Although the response of net photosynthetic production to increasing concentrations of CO2 under fluctuating light is similar to that under continuous light, rates of transpiration respond slowly to changes of light intensity and are barely affected by the concentration of CO2 in the range of 260-495 ppm, in which net photosynthesis increases by more than 100%. The analysis of the results confirms that future increases of CO2 will improve the efficiency of the conversion of radiant energy into biomass, but will not reduce the contribution of plant transpiration to the leaf thermal balance. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.
James, Taylor; Strunk, Jonathan; Arndt, Jason; Duarte, Audrey
Previous event-related potential (ERP) and neuroimaging evidence suggests that directing attention toward single item-context associations compared to intra-item features at encoding improves context memory performance and reduces demands on strategic retrieval operations in young and older adults. In everyday situations, however, there are multiple event features competing for our attention. It is not currently known how selectively attending to one contextual feature while attempting to ignore another influences context memory performance and the processes that support successful retrieval in the young and old. We investigated this issue in the current ERP study. Young and older participants studied pictures of objects in the presence of two contextual features: a color and a scene, and their attention was directed to the object's relationship with one of those contexts. Participants made context memory decisions for both attended and unattended contexts and rated their confidence in those decisions. Behavioral results showed that while both groups were generally successful in applying selective attention during context encoding, older adults were less confident in their context memory decisions for attended features and showed greater dependence in context memory accuracy for attended and unattended contextual features (i.e., hyper-binding). ERP results were largely consistent between age groups but older adults showed a more pronounced late posterior negativity (LPN) implicated in episodic reconstruction processes. We conclude that age-related suppression deficits during encoding result in reduced selectivity in context memory, thereby increasing subsequent demands on episodic reconstruction processes when sought after details are not readily retrieved. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wysowski, Diane K; Armstrong, George; Governale, Laura
To describe the use of oral antidiabetic drugs for management of type 2 diabetes in the U.S. from 1990 through 2001. Data on oral antidiabetic drugs were derived from two pharmaceutical marketing databases from IMS Health, the National Prescription Audit Plus and the National Disease and Therapeutic Index. In 1990, 23.4 million outpatient prescriptions of oral antidiabetic agents were dispensed. By 2001, this number had increased 3.9-fold, to 91.8 million prescriptions. Glipizide and glyburide, two sulfonylurea medications, accounted for approximately 77% of prescriptions of oral antidiabetic drugs in 1990 and 35.5% of prescriptions in 2001. By 2001, the biguanide metformin (approved in 1995) had captured approximately 33% of prescriptions, and the thiazolidinedione insulin sensitizers (rosiglitazone and pioglitazone marketed beginning in 1999) accounted for approximately 17% of market share. Compared with patients treated in 1990, those in 2001 were proportionately younger and they more often used oral antidiabetic drugs and insulin in combination. Internists and general and family practitioners were the primary prescribers of this class of drugs. Consistent with the reported increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, the number of dispensed outpatient prescriptions of oral antidiabetic drugs increased rapidly between 1990 and 2001. This period was marked by an increase in the treatment of younger people and the use of oral antidiabetic drugs in combination. With the approval in the last decade of several new types of oral antidiabetic medications with different mechanisms of action, options for management of type 2 diabetes have expanded.
Ward, Richard A
Water is necessary for all hemodialysis treatments. However, drinking water contains a range of substances that are toxic to patients on hemodialysis. Thus, all dialysis facilities are equipped with a water treatment system that removes those substances from the water before it is used to prepare dialysate. Increased demand for water and ever-evolving drinking water regulations are leading to changes in drinking water quality that may compromise the ability of typical dialysis water treatment systems to adequately remove substances that are known to be toxic or to deal with unexpected increases in other substances of unknown toxicity. In addition to these external challenges to dialysis water quality, the growing recognition that microbial contaminants in dialysate contribute to long-term morbidity has led to more stringent microbiological quality standards for dialysate and a consequent need to control biofilm formation in the fluid pathways involved in dialysate preparation. Avoiding toxicity from water contaminants in this dynamic environment requires a comprehensive approach to water treatment, including flexibility regarding the choice of water treatment processes, close communication with the suppliers of drinking water, and an emphasis on training technicians responsible for monitoring and maintaining all aspects of the fluid handling systems. Copyright © 2011 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Rosen, P. A.; Agram, P. S.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.; Yun, S. H.; Sacco, G. F.; Liu, Z.; Fielding, E. J.; Lundgren, P.; Moore, A. W.
A new era of geodetic imaging arrived with the launch of the ESA Sentinel-1A/B satellites in 2014 and 2016, and with the 2016 confirmation of the NISAR mission, planned for launch in 2021. These missions assure high quality, freely and openly distributed regularly sampled SAR data into the indefinite future. These unprecedented data sets are a watershed for solid earth sciences as we progress towards the goal of ubiquitous InSAR measurements. We now face the challenge of how to best address the massive volumes of data and intensive processing requirements. Should scientists individually process the same data independently themselves? Should a centralized service provider create standard products that all can use? Are there other approaches to accelerate science that are cost effective and efficient? The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project, a joint venture co-sponsored by California Institute of Technology (Caltech) and by NASA through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), is focused on rapidly generating higher level geodetic imaging products and placing them in the hands of the solid earth science and local, national, and international natural hazard communities by providing science product generation, exploration, and delivery capabilities at an operational level. However, there are challenges in defining the optimal InSAR data products for the solid earth science community. In this presentation, we will present our experience with InSAR users, our lessons learned the advantages of on demand and standard products, and our proposal for the most effective path forward.
Kaba, Amadu J
This paper examines the rapid increase in Nigeria's sex ratio at birth from 1.03 boys born for every 1 girl born in each year from 1996-2008 to 1.06 in each year from 2009-2014, second only to Tunisia in Africa at 1.07. The average sex ratio at birth in the world in 2014 was 1.07. In most Black African nations or Black majority nations, it is 1.03 or less. Among the factors presented for this development are: historical fluctuations of sex ratio at birth; geography and ethnicity; male preference/chasing a son; Age of parents; high death rates of male infants and males in general; and wealth/socioeconomic status. Among the potential implications are: young and poor men in Nigeria may not be able to find brides and form families due to a potential shortage of females; emigration of young and poor Nigerian men to West (Africa) and elsewhere to seek brides and form families; immigration of marriage age women from West (Africa) and around the world to Nigeria to seek husbands; and low contraceptive use and high fertility rates in Nigeria.
Ho, Phuong T; Reddy, Vijay S
The recent technological advances in electron microscopes, detectors, as well as image processing and reconstruction software have brought single particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) into prominence for determining structures of bio-molecules at near atomic resolution. This has been particularly true for virus capsids, ribosomes, and other large assemblies, which have been the ideal specimens for structural studies by cryo-EM approaches. An analysis of time series metadata of virus structures on the methods of structure determination, resolution of the structures, and size of the virus particles revealed a rapid increase in the virus structures determined by cryo-EM at near atomic resolution since 2010. In addition, the data highlight the median resolution (∼3.0 Å) and size (∼310.0 Å in diameter) of the virus particles determined by X-ray crystallography while no such limits exist for cryo-EM structures, which have a median diameter of 508 Å. Notably, cryo-EM virus structures in the last four years have a median resolution of 3.9 Å. Taken together with minimal sample requirements, not needing diffraction quality crystals, and being able to achieve similar resolutions of the crystal structures makes cryo-EM the method of choice for current and future virus capsid structure determinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Some upper brainstem cholinergic neurons (pedunculopontine and laterodorsal tegmental nuclei are involved in the generation of rapid eye movement (REM sleep and project rostrally to the thalamus and caudally to the medulla oblongata. A previous report showed that 96 h of REM sleep deprivation in rats induced an increase in the activity of brainstem acetylcholinesterase (Achase, the enzyme which inactivates acetylcholine (Ach in the synaptic cleft. There was no change in the enzyme's activity in the whole brain and cerebrum. The components of the cholinergic synaptic endings (for example, Achase are not uniformly distributed throughout the discrete regions of the brain. In order to detect possible regional changes we measured Achase activity in several discrete rat brain regions (medulla oblongata, pons, thalamus, striatum, hippocampus and cerebral cortex after 96 h of REM sleep deprivation. Naive adult male Wistar rats were deprived of REM sleep using the flower-pot technique, while control rats were left in their home cages. Total, membrane-bound and soluble Achase activities (nmol of thiocholine formed min-1 mg protein-1 were assayed photometrically. The results (mean ± SD obtained showed a statistically significant (Student t-test increase in total Achase activity in the pons (control: 147.8 ± 12.8, REM sleep-deprived: 169.3 ± 17.4, N = 6 for both groups, P<0.025 and thalamus (control: 167.4 ± 29.0, REM sleep-deprived: 191.9 ± 15.4, N = 6 for both groups, P<0.05. Increases in membrane-bound Achase activity in the pons (control: 171.0 ± 14.7, REM sleep-deprived: 189.5 ± 19.5, N = 6 for both groups, P<0.05 and soluble enzyme activity in the medulla oblongata (control: 147.6 ± 16.3, REM sleep-deprived: 163.8 ± 8.3, N = 6 for both groups, P<0.05 were also observed. There were no statistically significant differences in the enzyme's activity in the other brain regions assayed. The present findings show that the increase in Achase activity
Bedrossian, Gustavo C.; Gersberg, Sara
Two hypothetical scenarios have been analyzed where, after an initiating event, Embalse nuclear power plant primary heat transport system could undergo a pressure increase. These abnormal events are a loss of feedwater to the steam generators and a loss of Class IV power supply with Class III restoration. This analysis focuses on primary system liquid relief valves action, specially on their opening demand. Calculation results show that even when these valves are expected to open during the transient, primary system maximum allowable pressure would not be exceeded if they failed to open. System response was also studied in case that one of these relief valves did not close once primary system pressure decreases. For the scenario of loss of feedwater to steam generators, if the degasser-condenser could not be bottled-up, Emergency Cooling Injection conditions would be reached due to a continuos loss of coolant. In case of loss of Class IV -and assuming degasser-condenser bottling-up as service water would not be available- it was observed that primary system should remain pressurized, and with core cooled by thermo siphoning mechanism. (author)
Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina
Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Husted, Rasmus Skov; Wilquin, Lousia; Jakobsen, Thomas Linding
rapid knee-extensions were associated with greater voluntary quadriceps muscle activity during an experimental strength training session, compared to that elicited using slow knee-extensions. STUDY DESIGN: A randomized cross-over study. METHODS: Twenty-four patients (age 66.5) 4-8 weeks post total knee...... agonist muscle activity, especially if the exercise is conducted using rapid muscle contractions. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine if patients with total knee arthroplasty could perform rapid knee-extensions using a 10 RM load four to eight weeks after surgery, and the degree to which...... arthroplasty randomly performed one set of five rapid, and one set of five slow knee-extensions with the operated leg, using a load of their 10 repetition maximum, while surface electromyography recordings were obtained from the vastus medialis and lateralis of the quadriceps muscle. RESULTS: Data from 23...
Husted, Rasmus Skov; Wilquin, Lousia; Jakobsen, Thomas Linding
rapid knee-extensions were associated with greater voluntary quadriceps muscle activity during an experimental strength training session, compared to that elicited using slow knee-extensions. STUDY DESIGN: A randomized cross-over study. METHODS: Twenty-four patients (age 66.5) 4-8 weeks post total knee...... agonist muscle activity, especially if the exercise is conducted using rapid muscle contractions. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to examine if patients with total knee arthroplasty could perform rapid knee-extensions using a 10 RM load four to eight weeks after surgery, and the degree to which...... arthroplasty randomly performed one set of five rapid, and one set of five slow knee-extensions with the operated leg, using a load of their 10 repetition maximum, while surface electromyography recordings were obtained from the vastus medialis and lateralis of the quadriceps muscle. RESULTS: Data from 23...
Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin
The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.
Wang, F Y; Yu, H; Zou, Y C; Dai, Z G; Cheng, K S
Cosmic rays interact with the Earth's atmosphere to produce 14 C, which can be absorbed by trees. Therefore, rapid increases of 14 C in tree rings can be used to probe previous cosmic-ray events. By this method, three 14 C rapidly increasing events have been found. Plausible causes of these events include large solar proton events, supernovae, or short gamma-ray bursts. However, due to the lack of measurements of 14 C by year, the occurrence frequency of such 14 C rapidly increasing events is poorly known. In addition, rapid increases may be hidden in the IntCal13 data with five-year resolution. Here we report the result of 14 C measurements using an ancient buried tree during the period between BC 3388 and 3358. We found a rapid increase of about 9‰ in the 14 C content from BC 3372 to BC 3371. We suggest that this event could originate from a large solar proton event.
Van Yperen, N.W.; Hagedoorn, M.
Examined whether job control and job social support reduce signs of fatigue and enhance intrinsic motivation among employees facing high job demands. 555 nurses (mean age 35.5 yrs) working at specialized units for patients with different levels of mental deficiency completed surveys regarding: (1)
Jansen, Mieke; Stoks, Robby; Coors, Anja; van Doorslaer, Wendy; de Meester, Luc
Although natural populations may evolve resistance to anthropogenic stressors such as pollutants, this evolved resistance may carry costs. Using an experimental evolution approach, we exposed different Daphnia magna populations in outdoor containers to the carbamate pesticide carbaryl and control conditions, and assessed the resulting populations for both their resistance to carbaryl as well as their susceptibility to infection by the widespread bacterial microparasite Pasteuria ramosa. Our results show that carbaryl selection led to rapid evolution of carbaryl resistance with seemingly no cost when assessed in a benign environment. However, carbaryl-resistant populations were more susceptible to parasite infection than control populations. Exposure to both stressors reveals a synergistic effect on sterilization rate by P. ramosa, but this synergism did not evolve under pesticide selection. Assessing costs of rapid adaptive evolution to anthropogenic stress in a semi-natural context may be crucial to avoid too optimistic predictions for the fitness of the evolving populations. © 2011 The Author(s).
Buongiorno, J.; Raunikar, R.; Zhu, S.
The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country. ?? 2011 Department of Forest Economics, SLU Ume??, Sweden.
Confirmed increase in energy consumptions in a context of soaring crude oil prices; but economic growth is twice faster. According to the latest estimates by Enerdata, The world energy demand growth remains sustained in 2006, but twice slower than the GDP's growth, probably due to high energy prices on the international market. Oil: The oil demand, very captive, confirms once again its low elasticity to prices. 71% of the world oil product demand is concentrated on transport and petro-chemical sectors (77% in Europe, +13 points since 1990; 89% in North America). Gas/Electricity: Gas demand growth in 2006 is driven by Asia and the CIS, obvious price effects in the European Union. The CIS regains its position in the world production growth (22% in 2006 against 13% in 2005 and 33% in 2004). The power generation growth is more and more dominated by China and other Asian countries. The world electricity demand increases in the same proportions as in 2005 and 2004: 4%/year. Coal: Coal accounts for half of the world increase in energy consumption in 2006. China still accounts for 72% of the coal consumption, India for 10%, the rest of Asia 8% the rest of the world 10%. (authors)
The econometric analysis of the demand for broad money in Latvia suggests a stable relationship of money demand. The analysis of parameter exogeneity indicates that the equilibrium adjustment is driven solely by the changes in the amount of money. The demand for money in Latvia is characterised by relatively high income elasticity typical for the economy in a monetary expansion phase. Due to stability, close fit of the money demand function and rapid equilibrium adjustment, broad money aggreg...
Hanimann, Raphael; Vinterbäck, Johan; Mark-Herbert, Cecilia
A higher percentage of energy from renewable resources is an important goal on many environmental policy agendas. Yet, the demand for renewable electricity in liberalized markets has developed much more slowly than the demand for other green products. To date, research has mainly examined the willingness to pay for renewable electricity, but limited research has been conducted on the motivations behind it. The concept of identity signaling has proven to play a significant role in consumer behavior for green products. However, (renewable) electricity in the Swedish residential market typically lacks two important drivers for identity signaling: visibility and product involvement. A consumer choice simulation among 434 Swedish households compared consumer choices for renewable electricity contracts. The results show a positive effect of identity signaling on the demand for renewable electricity and yield suggestions for increasing the share of renewable electricity without market distorting measures. This leads to implications for policymakers, electricity suppliers and researchers. - Highlights: • Low demand for renewable electricity contracts falls short of high market potential. • For this study a consumer choice simulation for electricity contracts was processed. • Higher visibility and involvement increases demand for green electricity contracts. • Branding that enables identity signaling contributes to green energy policy goals
Chakravorty, U.; Fesharaki, F.; Zhou, S.
The literature on OPEC energy policy has focused primarily on its production and export potential. The rapidly increasing domestic demand for petroleum products in OPEC countries has often been ignored. This study estimates domestic demand for petroleum products by the major OPEC economies and forecasts consumption trends under alternative assumptions regarding economic growth and price deregulation. It concludes that product demand is generally price and income inelastic and thus domestic consumption in OPEC will continue to grow rapidly, even if domestic prices are raised closer to world levels in the near future
Full Text Available Modulation of synapses under acute stress is attracting much attention. Exposure to acute stress induces corticosterone (CORT secretion from the adrenal cortex, resulting in rapid increase of CORT levels in plasma and the hippocampus. We tried to test whether rapid CORT effects involve activation of essential kinases as non-genomic processes.We demonstrated rapid effects (~ 1 h of CORT on the density of thorns, by imaging Lucifer Yellow-injected neurons in adult male rat hippocampal slices. Thorns of thorny excrescences of CA3 hippocampal neurons are post-synaptic regions whose presynaptic partners are mossy fiber terminals. The application of CORT at 100, 500 and 1000 nM induced a rapid increase in the density of thorns in the stratum lucidum of CA3 pyramidal neurons. Co-administration of RU486, an antagonist of glucocorticoid receptor (GR, abolished the effect of CORT. Blocking a single kinase, including MAPK, PKA or PKC, suppressed CORT-induced enhancement of thorn-genesis. On the other hand, GSK-3β was not involved in the signaling of thorn-genesis. Blocking AMPA receptors suppressed the CORT effect. Expression of CA3 synaptic/extranuclear GR was demonstrated by immunogold electron microscopic analysis. From these results, stress levels of CORT (100-1000 nM might drive the rapid thorn-genesis via synaptic/extranuclear GR and multiple kinase pathways, although a role of nuclear GRs cannot be completely excluded.
Sardinha-Lourenço, A.; Andrade-Campos, A.; Antunes, A.; Oliveira, M. S.
Recent research on water demand short-term forecasting has shown that models using univariate time series based on historical data are useful and can be combined with other prediction methods to reduce errors. The behavior of water demands in drinking water distribution networks focuses on their repetitive nature and, under meteorological conditions and similar consumers, allows the development of a heuristic forecast model that, in turn, combined with other autoregressive models, can provide reliable forecasts. In this study, a parallel adaptive weighting strategy of water consumption forecast for the next 24-48 h, using univariate time series of potable water consumption, is proposed. Two Portuguese potable water distribution networks are used as case studies where the only input data are the consumption of water and the national calendar. For the development of the strategy, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and a short-term forecast heuristic algorithm are used. Simulations with the model showed that, when using a parallel adaptive weighting strategy, the prediction error can be reduced by 15.96% and the average error by 9.20%. This reduction is important in the control and management of water supply systems. The proposed methodology can be extended to other forecast methods, especially when it comes to the availability of multiple forecast models.
Burns, Timothy; Gao, Yuan; Sherman, Cherie; Vengerov, Alexander; Klein, Stephen
This paper reports the results of a survey administered to 322 undergraduate business students enrolled in an introductory Information Systems course at a public liberal arts college located in the northeast US. The goal of this research was to learn, given the increased demand for technology oriented jobs, why fewer students are choosing the…
Connell, Charlotte J W; Thompson, Benjamin; Turuwhenua, Jason; Hess, Robert F; Gant, Nicholas
Caffeine is a widely used dietary stimulant that can reverse the effects of fatigue on cognitive, motor and oculomotor function. However, few studies have examined the effect of caffeine on the oculomotor system when homeostasis has not been disrupted by physical fatigue. This study examined the influence of a moderate dose of caffeine on oculomotor control and visual perception in participants who were not fatigued. Within a placebo-controlled crossover design, 13 healthy adults ingested caffeine (5 mg·kg -1 body mass) and were tested over 3 h. Eye movements, including saccades, smooth pursuit and optokinetic nystagmus, were measured using infrared oculography. Caffeine was associated with higher peak saccade velocities (472 ± 60° s -1 ) compared to placebo (455 ± 62° s -1 ). Quick phases of optokinetic nystagmus were also significantly faster with caffeine, whereas pursuit eye movements were unchanged. Non-oculomotor perceptual tasks (global motion and global orientation processing) were unaffected by caffeine. These results show that oculomotor control is modulated by a moderate dose of caffeine in unfatigued humans. These effects are detectable in the kinematics of rapid eye movements, whereas pursuit eye movements and visual perception are unaffected. Oculomotor functions may be sensitive to changes in central catecholamines mediated via caffeine's action as an adenosine antagonist, even when participants are not fatigued.
Hasan, Z.; Razzak, S.; Farhan, M.; Rahim, M.; Islam, N.; Samreen, A.; Khan, E.
To evaluate the trends in usage of dengue virus diagnostics in Pakistan. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, and comprised data for specimens tested for dengue virus from January 2012 to December 2015. Test for dengue virus ribonucleic acid by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, dengue virus antigen by immunochromatic assay and for human immunoglobulin M against dengue virus by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay were reviewed. SPSS 17 was used for data analysis. Results: Overall, 33,577 specimens tested for dengue virus. Of them, 11,995 (35.7%) were positive. among them, 1,039(8.66%) were reported in 2012; 5,791(48.28%) in 2013; 1,027(8.56%) in 2014; and 4,138(34.49%) in 2015. In 2012, 966(93%) of the positive samples were diagnosed by immunoglobulin M-based method and 73(7%) by non-structural protein-1 antigen. In 2013, 4,401(76%) samples were tested positive by immunoglobulin M, 1,332(23%) by antigen and 58(1%) by polymerase chain reaction. The trend continued in 2014, but in 2015, 2,111(51%) of all dengue positive tests were determined by antigen testing, 1,969(47.6%) by immunoglobulin M and 58(1.4%) by polymerase chain reaction. Conclusion: There was a shift in usage of direct virus identification for rapid diagnosis of dengue virus compared with host immunoglobulin M testing. (author)
Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries
Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.
Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar
Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...
Haastrup, Peter; Paulsen, Maja Skov; Zwisler, Jon Eik
Background: Guideline and reimbursement modifications have been introduced to optimize prescribing of antisecretory medication in Danish general practice. Impacts of the interventions have not been evaluated. Objectives: To analyse developments in prescribing of antisecretory medication in Denmark...... increased substantially during the past decade. Both number of users and the average individual use have increased. The prescribing of ulcerogenic drugs to the elderly has stagnated in the same time range. Reimbursement modifications and scientific guidelines do not seem to have had a substantial influence...
Buccioli, Matteo; Agnoletti, Vanni; Padovani, Emanuele; Perger, Peter
The economic and financial crisis has also had an important impact on the healthcare sector. Available resources have decreased, while at the same time costs as well as demand for healthcare services are on the rise. This coalescing negative impact on availability of healthcare resources is exacerbated even further by a widespread ignorance of management accounting matters. Little knowledge about costs is a strong source of costs augmentation. Although it is broadly recognized that cost accounting has a positive impact on healthcare organizations, it is not widespread adopted. Hospitals are essential components in providing overall healthcare. Operating rooms are critical hospital units not only in patient safety terms but also in expenditure terms. Understanding OR procedures in the hospital provides important information about how health care resources are used. There have been several scientific studies on management accounting in healthcare environments and more than ever there is a need for innovation, particularly by connecting business administration research findings to modern IT tools. IT adoption constitutes one of the most important innovation fields within the healthcare sector, with beneficial effects on the decision making processes. The e-HCM (e-Healthcare Cost Management) project consists of a cost calculation model which is applicable to Business Intelligence. The cost calculation approach comprises elements from both traditional cost accounting and activity-based costing. Direct costs for all surgical procedures can be calculated through a seven step implementation process.
Vyakaranam, Bharat GNVSR; Vallem, Mallikarjuna R.; Nguyen, Tony B.; Samaan, Nader A.; Berscheid, Alan P.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng
The vulnerability of large power systems to cascading failures and major blackouts has become evident since the Northeast blackout in 1965. Based on analyses of the series of cascading blackouts in the past decade, the research community realized the urgent need to develop better methods, tools, and practices for performing cascading-outage analysis and for evaluating mitigations that are easily accessible by utility planning engineers. PNNL has developed the Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) as an open-platform and publicly available methodology to help develop applications that aim to improve the capabilities of power planning engineers to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT analysis will help identify potential vulnerabilities and allow study of mitigation solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages in technically sound and effective ways. Using the DCAT capability, we examined the impacts of various load conditions to identify situations in which the power grid may encounter cascading outages that could lead to potential blackouts. This paper describes the usefulness of the DCAT tool and how it helps to understand potential impacts of load demand on cascading failures on the power system.
This series of slides presents, first the 2008 context of nuclear power: a rising demand and a nuclear plant construction set to accelerate after 2010 and secondly, the role that TSOs (Technical Safety Organizations) are expected to play by nuclear industry. This role must be important on 4 issues: the standardized products, the licensing support, the international cooperation and the keeping of competence. The standardization of reactors could allow a one-step licensing that means the merging of the construction license and of the operation license into a unique license, and the mutual acceptance of licenses by TSOs. Concerning the licensing support, TSOs are wished to intervene at the very early stage of design work for new reactor concepts and to cooperate with countries that do not have adequate structure for nuclear licensing. Concerning the international cooperation, TSOs are expected to promote close partnership between national TSOs through a mutual exchange of information, the exchange of experts or common licensing activities. As for the keeping of competence, TSOs must have the adequate staff to work on new reactor concepts
Naylor, David E; Liu, Hantao; Niquet, Jerome; Wasterlain, Claude G
After 1h of lithium-pilocarpine status epilepticus (SE), immunocytochemical labeling of NMDA receptor NR1 subunits reveals relocation of subunits from the interior to the cell surface of dentate gyrus granule cells and CA3 pyramidal cells. Simultaneously, an increase in NMDA-miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents (mEPSC) as well as an increase in NMDA receptor-mediated tonic currents is observed in hippocampal slices after SE. Mean-variance analysis of NMDA-mEPSCs estimates that the number of functional postsynaptic NMDA receptors per synapse increases 38% during SE, and antagonism by ifenprodil suggests that an increase in the surface representation of NR2B-containing NMDA receptors is responsible for the augmentation of both the phasic and tonic excitatory currents with SE. These results provide a potential mechanism for an enhancement of glutamatergic excitation that maintains SE and may contribute to excitotoxic injury during SE. Therapies that directly antagonize NMDA receptors may be a useful therapeutic strategy during refractory SE. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Kamandulis, Sigitas; Snieckus, Audrius; Venckunas, Tomas
The aim of the present study was to monitor the changes in indirect markers of muscle damage during 3 weeks (nine training sessions) of stretch-shortening (drop jump) exercise with constant load alternated with steep increases in load. Physically active men (n = 9, mean age 19.1 years) performed....... Maximal jump height increased by 7.8% ± 6.3% (P training session, respectively. Gains in isometric knee extension MVC (7.9% ± 8.2%) and 100-Hz-evoked torque (9.9% ± 9.6%) (both P ... within 17 days after the end of training. The magnitude of improvement was greater after this protocol than that induced by a continuous constant progression loading pattern with small gradual load increments in each training session. These findings suggest that plyometric training using infrequent...
Bailey, Andy M.; Alberti, Fabrizio; Kilaru, Sreedhar; Collins, Catherine M.; de Mattos-Shipley, Kate; Hartley, Amanda J.; Hayes, Patrick; Griffin, Alison; Lazarus, Colin M.; Cox, Russell J.; Willis, Christine L.; O'Dwyer, Karen; Spence, David W.; Foster, Gary D.
Semi-synthetic derivatives of the tricyclic diterpene antibiotic pleuromutilin from the basidiomycete Clitopilus passeckerianus are important in combatting bacterial infections in human and veterinary medicine. These compounds belong to the only new class of antibiotics for human applications, with novel mode of action and lack of cross-resistance, representing a class with great potential. Basidiomycete fungi, being dikaryotic, are not generally amenable to strain improvement. We report identification of the seven-gene pleuromutilin gene cluster and verify that using various targeted approaches aimed at increasing antibiotic production in C. passeckerianus, no improvement in yield was achieved. The seven-gene pleuromutilin cluster was reconstructed within Aspergillus oryzae giving production of pleuromutilin in an ascomycete, with a significant increase (2106%) in production. This is the first gene cluster from a basidiomycete to be successfully expressed in an ascomycete, and paves the way for the exploitation of a metabolically rich but traditionally overlooked group of fungi.
Aslan T Turer
Full Text Available To determine whether increases in cardiac work lead to alterations in the plasma metabolome and whether such changes arise from the heart or peripheral organs.There is growing evidence that the heart influences systemic metabolism through endocrine effects and affecting pathways involved in energy homeostasis.Nineteen patients referred for cardiac catheterization were enrolled. Peripheral and selective coronary sinus (CS blood sampling was performed at serial timepoints following the initiation of pacing, and metabolite profiling was performed by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS.Pacing-stress resulted in a 225% increase in the median rate·pressure product from baseline. Increased myocardial work induced significant changes in the peripheral concentration of 43 of 125 metabolites assayed, including large changes in purine [adenosine (+99%, p = 0.006, ADP (+42%, p = 0.01, AMP (+79%, p = 0.004, GDP (+69%, p = 0.003, GMP (+58%, p = 0.01, IMP (+50%, p = 0.03, xanthine (+61%, p = 0.0006], and several bile acid metabolites. The CS changes in metabolites qualitatively mirrored those in the peripheral blood in both timing and magnitude, suggesting the heart was not the major source of the metabolite release.Isolated increases in myocardial work can induce changes in the plasma metabolome, but these changes do not appear to be directly cardiac in origin. A number of these dynamic metabolites have known signaling functions. Our study provides additional evidence to a growing body of literature on metabolic 'cross-talk' between the heart and other organs.
Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Gülay, Arda; Lee, Carson
. The sustainability and climate friendliness are evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA). Molecular methods based on qPCR are being developed and implemented to quantify bacteria in different functional groups, such as those responsible for nitrification. This allows for development of diagnostic tools to detect...... of increased load of e.g. ammonium, manganese and ferrous iron. This filter will also be used to validate the mathematical models build for the biological filters at full scale....
Johansson, Margareta; Bosiö, Julia; Akerman, H Jonas; Jackowicz-Korczynski, Marcin; Christensen, Torben R; Callaghan, Terry V
Increased snow depth already observed, and that predicted for the future are of critical importance to many geophysical and biological processes as well as human activities. The future characteristics of sub-arctic landscapes where permafrost is particularly vulnerable will depend on complex interactions between snow cover, vegetation and permafrost. An experimental manipulation was, therefore, set up on a lowland peat plateau with permafrost, in northernmost Sweden, to simulate projected future increases in winter precipitation and to study their effects on permafrost and vegetation. After seven years of treatment, statistically significant differences between manipulated and control plots were found in mean winter ground temperatures, which were 1.5 ° C higher in manipulated plots. During the winter, a difference in minimum temperatures of up to 9 ° C higher could be found in individual manipulated plots compared with control plots. Active layer thicknesses increased at the manipulated plots by almost 20% compared with the control plots and a mean surface subsidence of 24 cm was recorded in the manipulated plots compared to 5 cm in the control plots. The graminoid Eriophorum vaginatum has expanded in the manipulated plots and the vegetation remained green longer in the season. (letter)
Ball, Stephen J.; Jacoby, Peter; Zubrick, Stephen R.
Fetal growth is an important risk factor for infant morbidity and mortality. In turn, socioeconomic status is a key predictor of fetal growth; however, other sociodemographic factors and environmental effects may also be important. This study modelled geographic variation in poor fetal growth after accounting for socioeconomic status, with a fixed effect for socioeconomic status and a combination of spatially-correlated and spatially-uncorrelated random effects. The dataset comprised 88,246 liveborn singletons, aggregated within suburbs in Perth, Western Australia. Low socioeconomic status was strongly associated with an increased risk of poor fetal growth. An increase in geographic variation of poor fetal growth from 1999–2001 (interquartile odds ratio among suburbs = 1.20) to 2004–2006 (interquartile odds ratio = 1.40) indicated a widening risk disparity by socioeconomic status. Low levels of residual spatial patterns strengthen the case for targeting policies and practices in areas of low socioeconomic status for improved outcomes. This study indicates an alarming increase in geographic inequalities in poor fetal growth in Perth which warrants further research into the specific aspects of socioeconomic status that act as risk factors. PMID:23799513
Munazah Fazal Qureshi
Full Text Available Increased bodily CO2 concentration alters cellular pH as well as sleep. The proton pump, which plays an important role in the homeostatic regulation of cellular pH, therefore, may modulate sleep. We investigated the effects of the proton pump inhibitor “lansoprazole” on sleep-wakefulness. Male Wistar rats were surgically prepared for chronic polysomnographic recordings. Two different doses of lansoprazole (low: 1 mg/kg; high: 10 mg/kg were injected intraperitoneally in the same animal (n=7 and sleep-wakefulness was recorded for 6 hrs. The changes in sleep-wakefulness were compared statistically. Percent REM sleep amount in the vehicle and lansoprazole low dose groups was 9.26±1.03 and 9.09±0.54, respectively, which increased significantly in the lansoprazole high dose group by 31.75% (from vehicle and 34.21% (from low dose. Also, REM sleep episode numbers significantly increased in lansoprazole high dose group. Further, the sodium-hydrogen exchanger blocker “amiloride” (10 mg/kg; i.p. (n=5 did not alter sleep-wake architecture. Our results suggest that the proton pump plays an important role in REM sleep modulation and supports our view that REM sleep might act as a sentinel to help maintain normal CO2 level for unperturbed sleep.
Full Text Available Long-term phase shifts from coral to macroalgal dominated reef systems are well documented in the Caribbean. Although the impact of coral diseases, climate change and other factors is acknowledged, major herbivore loss through disease and overfishing is often assigned a primary role. However, direct evidence for the link between herbivore abundance, macroalgal and coral cover is sparse, particularly over broad spatial scales. In this study we use a database of coral reef surveys performed at 85 sites along the Mesoamerican Reef of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras, to examine potential ecological links by tracking site trajectories over the period 2005–2014. Despite the long-term reduction of herbivory capacity reported across the Caribbean, the Mesoamerican Reef region displayed relatively low macroalgal cover at the onset of the study. Subsequently, increasing fleshy macroalgal cover was pervasive. Herbivorous fish populations were not responsible for this trend as fleshy macroalgal cover change was not correlated with initial herbivorous fish biomass or change, and the majority of sites experienced increases in macroalgae browser biomass. This contrasts the coral reef top-down herbivore control paradigm and suggests the role of external factors in making environmental conditions more favourable for algae. Increasing macroalgal cover typically suppresses ecosystem services and leads to degraded reef systems. Consequently, policy makers and local coral reef managers should reassess the focus on herbivorous fish protection and consider complementary measures such as watershed management in order to arrest this trend.
Hossack, Blake R; Lowe, Winsor H; Corn, Paul Stephen
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.
Wu, Yi-Cheng; Qian, Quan; Magalhaes, Ricardo J Soares; Han, Zhi-Hai; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A; Hu, Wen-Biao; Liu, Yun-Xi; Sun, Yan-Song; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Li, Shen-Long
Scrub typhus is a vector-borne disease, which has recently reemerged in China. In this study, we describe the distribution and incidence of scrub typhus cases in China from 2006 to 2014 and quantify differences in scrub typhus cases with respect to sex, age, and occupation. The results of our study indicate that the annual incidence of scrub typhus has increased during the study period. The number of cases peaked in 2014, which was 12.8 times greater than the number of cases reported in 2006. Most (77.97%) of the cases were reported in five provinces (Guangdong, Yunnan, Anhui, Fujian, and Shandong). Our study also demonstrates that the incidence rate of scrub typhus was significantly higher in females compared to males (P scrub typhus incidence, but also document an expansion in the geographic distribution throughout the country. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Beitnes, Ann-Christin R; Vikskjold, Florin B; Jóhannesdóttir, Gróa B; Perminow, Gøri; Olbjørn, Christine; Andersen, Solveig N; Bentsen, Beint S; Rugtveit, Jarle; Størdal, Ketil
We aimed to study whether the incidence of pediatric celiac disease (CD) in South-Eastern Norway changed from 2000 to 2010. We also examined whether there was a change in symptoms and histopathological morphology in the duodenal biopsies during the same period. In 3 hospitals in South-Eastern Norway, records from pediatric patients (0-14.9 years) diagnosed with CD during two 3-year periods (2000-2002 and 2008-2010) were reviewed. Only cases with a duodenal biopsy diagnosis of CD classified as Marsh grade 2 and 3a-c were included. Frequencies of symptoms, anthropometric data, and laboratory results were compared, in addition to re-examinations of histological sections from one of the hospitals. A total of 400 cases were diagnosed with a female to male ratio of 1.5:1. The incidence rate for 2000 to 2002 was 15.9 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 12.8-19.4), compared with 45.5 cases per 100,000 person-years during 2008 to 2010 (95% confidence interval 40.5-50.9), P symptoms and the distribution of histopathological changes were similar in the 2 periods, whereas weight z scores and hemoglobin levels were significantly lower in the first period. We found a 3-fold increase in the incidence rate for CD in the Norwegian pediatric population during the decade 2000 to 2010. Slightly higher weight and hemoglobin levels at diagnosis in the latter period may be due to improved CD awareness. Unaltered relative frequencies of symptoms and histopathological changes in the gut, however, suggest a true increase of CD in Norwegian children.
Graham, Amanda L; Milner, Pat; Saul, Jessie E; Pfaff, Lillian
Background To improve the overall impact (reach ? efficacy) of cessation treatments and to reduce the population prevalence of smoking, innovative strategies are needed that increase consumer demand for and use of cessation treatments. Given that 12 million people search for smoking cessation information each year, online advertising may represent a cost-efficient approach to reach and recruit online smokers to treatment. Online ads can be implemented in many forms, and surveys consistently s...
Moore, Charles James
Synthetic polymers, commonly known as plastics, have been entering the marine environment in quantities paralleling their level of production over the last half century. However, in the last two decades of the 20th Century, the deposition rate accelerated past the rate of production, and plastics are now one of the most common and persistent pollutants in ocean waters and beaches worldwide. Thirty years ago the prevailing attitude of the plastic industry was that "plastic litter is a very small proportion of all litter and causes no harm to the environment except as an eyesore" [Derraik, J.G.B., 2002. The pollution of the marine environment by plastic debris: a review. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 44(9), 842-852]. Between 1960 and 2000, the world production of plastic resins increased 25-fold, while recovery of the material remained below 5%. Between 1970 and 2003, plastics became the fastest growing segment of the US municipal waste stream, increasing nine-fold, and marine litter is now 60-80% plastic, reaching 90-95% in some areas. While undoubtedly still an eyesore, plastic debris today is having significant harmful effects on marine biota. Albatross, fulmars, shearwaters and petrels mistake floating plastics for food, and many individuals of these species are affected; in fact, 44% of all seabird species are known to ingest plastic. Sea turtles ingest plastic bags, fishing line and other plastics, as do 26 species of cetaceans. In all, 267 species of marine organisms worldwide are known to have been affected by plastic debris, a number that will increase as smaller organisms are assessed. The number of fish, birds, and mammals that succumb each year to derelict fishing nets and lines in which they become entangled cannot be reliably known; but estimates are in the millions. We divide marine plastic debris into two categories: macro, >5 mm and micro, plastic micro-debris by filter feeders at the base of the food web is known to occur, but has not been quantified
Diomedi, Marina; Scacciatelli, Daria; Misaggi, Giulia; Balestrini, Simona; Balucani, Clotilde; Sallustio, Fabrizio; Di Legge, Silvia; Stanzione, Paolo; Silvestrini, Mauro
This study aimed to identify clinical and ultrasound imaging predictors of progression of carotid luminal narrowing in subjects with asymptomatic moderate internal carotid artery (ICA) stenosis. A total of 571 subjects with asymptomatic moderate (50-69%) ICA stenoses were enrolled. They underwent ultrasound examination at baseline and after 12 months. Demographics, vascular risk factors, medications, plaque characteristics (surface and echogenicity) and common carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) were collected. At the follow-up examination, any change of ICA stenosis was graded in three categories (i) ≥70% to near occlusion, (ii) near occlusion, and (iii) occlusion. Progression of stenosis was defined as an increase in the stenosis degree by at least one category from baseline to follow-up. At 12 months, progression occurred in 142 subjects (prevalence rate 25%). At the multivariable logistic model, pathological IMT values (considered as binary variable: normal: ≤1 mm vs. pathologic: >1 mm) significantly predicted the risk for plaque progression after adjusting the model for possible confounders (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.18-4.43, P = .014, multivariable logistic model). Our results confirm the role of carotid wall thickening as a marker of atherosclerosis. Carotid IMT measurement should be considered to implement risk stratification in patients with asymptomatic carotid disease.
The spatiotemporal evolution of the temperature in the afterglow of point-to-plane, pulsed positive streamer discharge was measured near the anode tip and cathode surface using laser-induced predissociation fluorescence of OH radicals. The temperature exhibited a rapid increase and displayed a steep spatial gradient after a discharge pulse. The rate of temperature rise reached 84 K μs‑1 at mm, where z represents the distance from the anode tip. The temperature rise was much faster than in the middle of the gap; it was only 2.8 K μs‑1 at mm. The temperature reached 1700 K near the anode tip at s and 1500 K near the cathode surface at s, where t represents the postdischarge time. The spatial gradient reached 1280 K mm‑1 near the anode tip at s. The mechanism responsible for the rapid temperature increase was discussed, including rapid heating of the gas in the early postdischarge phase (s), and vibration-to-translation energy transfer in the later postdischarge phase (s). The high temperatures near the anode tip and cathode surface are particularly important for the ignition of combustible mixtures and for surface treatments, including solid-surface treatments, water treatments, and plasma medicine using pulsed streamer discharges.
Sartorius, B; Sartorius, K; Taylor, M; Aagaard-Hansen, J; Dukhi, N; Day, C; Ndlovu, N; Slotow, R; Hofman, K
There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors. We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals. From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country. We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the
Kim, Seung Jin; Kara, Sami; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky
behaviour and demonstrates the vicious circle of improving product efficiency that leads to further consumption and environmental impact. To address this problem, a new framework of dynamic functional unit definition is put forward for performing comparative LCA to manage the development of product life...... consumption of products in provided services as well as in growing volumes. This article aims to present a new framework in defining a dynamic functional unit of product technologies that caters for changes in consumer behaviour and growing market. Methods: A new approach to defining the functional unit...... is demonstrated on a case study in which the analysis of historical data for two TV product technologies—CRT and LCD—is used to show how the total environmental impact is increasing due to the increased functionality which triggers an increase in the volume of the market. Despite the efforts of improving product...
van der Leij, Aryan; van Daal, Victor H. P.
Ten students (age 10) with dyslexia were compared to 10 chronological-age controls and 20 reading-age controls. Response latencies of the students with dyslexia were slower when familiar words, letter clusters, and nonwords had to be named. A larger word-frequency effect and larger word-length effect indicate difficulty with increasing task…
Mangione, Antonio M; Dearing, M Denise; Karasov, William H
Although many plant secondary compounds are known to have serious consequences for herbivores, the costs of processing them are generally unknown. Two potential costs of ingestion and detoxification of secondary compounds are elevation of the minimum drinking water requirement and excretion of energetically expensive metabolites (i.e., glucuronides) in the urine. To address these impacts, we studied the costs of ingestion of resin from creosote bush (Larrea tridentata) on desert woodrats (Neotoma lepida). The following hypotheses were tested: ingestion of creosote resin by woodrats (1) increases minimum water requirement and (2) reduces energy available by increasing fecal and urinary energy losses. We tested the first hypothesis, by measuring the minimum water requirement of woodrats fed a control diet with and without creosote resin. Drinking water was given in decreasing amounts until woodrats could no longer maintain constant body mass. In two separate experiments, the minimum drinking water requirement of woodrats fed resin was higher than that of controls by 18-30% (about 1-1.7 ml/d). We tested several potential mechanisms of increased water loss associated with the increase in water requirement. The rate of fecal water loss was higher in woodrats consuming resin. Neither urinary water nor evaporative water loss was affected by ingestion of resin. Hypothesis 2 was tested by measuring energy fluxes of woodrats consuming control vs. resin-treated diets. Woodrats on a resin diet had higher urinary energy losses and, thus, metabolized a lower proportion of the dietary energy than did woodrats on control diet. Fecal energy excretion was not affected by resin. The excretion of glucuronic acid represented almost half of the energy lost as a consequence of resin ingestion. The increased water requirement and energy losses of woodrats consuming a diet with resin could have notable ecological consequences.
The rapid growth in demand for natural gas from a global perspective is documented in this paper. Low prices compared to other fuels and a return to normal winter temperatures is argued to be the cause of this increase in consumption. Natural gas production and prices for 1995 are discussed and forecasts made for future years, in particular the prospects for LNG in Asia. Data on energy growth and gas specific information in world markets are included. (UK)
Yanagisawa, Akira; Ikarii, Ryohei; Iwata, Sohei; Wang, In-Ha; Tomokawa, K.; Shibata, Yoshiaki; Ito, Kokichi
Although prompt economic recovery was expected, after tax increase in April 2014, not so much progress has been made as anticipated. One of the reasons for this is the increase in energy cost due to the decline in LNG price following that of oil price from an international point of view, and the electric rate hike resulted from the delay in restart of nuclear power plant from a domestic point of view, and so on. In this article, the outlook for the Japanese economy and the energy demand in the fiscal year 2015 and the influences of various factors were evaluated. For this evaluation, the values set as the primary premises for the standard scenario were: (1) world economy, (2) CIF prices for importing oil, LNG, and coal, (3) exchange rates, (4) nuclear power generation, (5) electricity demand, and (6) temperature. Then, the influences of following items on economy and energy demand were analyzed: (1) macro economy, (2) production activity, (3) domestic supply of primary energy, (4) final energy consumption, (5) sales amount of electricity and composition of electrical sources, (6) sales amount of city gas, (7) sales amount of fuel oil and LNG, (8) renewable energy power generation, (9) restart rate of nuclear power plant, and so on. (S.K.)
Leaché, Adam D; Banbury, Barbara L; Linkem, Charles W; de Oca, Adrián Nieto-Montes
Resolving the short phylogenetic branches that result from rapid evolutionary diversification often requires large numbers of loci. We collected targeted sequence capture data from 585 nuclear loci (541 ultraconserved elements and 44 protein-coding genes) to estimate the phylogenetic relationships among iguanian lizards in the North American genus Sceloporus. We tested for diversification rate shifts to determine if rapid radiation in the genus is correlated with chromosomal evolution. The phylogenomic trees that we obtained for Sceloporus using concatenation and coalescent-based species tree inference provide strong support for the monophyly and interrelationships among nearly all major groups. The diversification analysis supported one rate shift on the Sceloporus phylogeny approximately 20-25 million years ago that is associated with the doubling of the speciation rate from 0.06 species/million years (Ma) to 0.15 species/Ma. The posterior probability for this rate shift occurring on the branch leading to the Sceloporus species groups exhibiting increased chromosomal diversity is high (posterior probability = 0.997). Despite high levels of gene tree discordance, we were able to estimate a phylogenomic tree for Sceloporus that solves some of the taxonomic problems caused by previous analyses of fewer loci. The taxonomic changes that we propose using this new phylogenomic tree help clarify the number and composition of the major species groups in the genus. Our study provides new evidence for a putative link between chromosomal evolution and the rapid divergence and radiation of Sceloporus across North America.
Bošeľa, Michal; Petráš, Rudolf; Sitková, Zuzana; Priwitzer, Tibor; Pajtík, Jozef; Hlavatá, Helena; Sedmák, Róbert; Tobin, Brian
Silver fir is one of the most productive and ecologically valuable native European tree species, however, it has been experiencing decline which has periodically occurred over its natural range. This paper aims to investigate the recent climate–growth relationships of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and its temporal change along the course of its life. Long-term tree-ring databases, as well as records on climate, atmospheric SO 2 , NO 3 and acid concentrations from four different regions in the Western Carpathians were used. The results provide clear evidence of significant increase of silver fir's radial increment over the entire Western Carpathian area since 1970–1980. The results indicated that the most probable factors behind the rapid recovery of tree radial increment were reductions in emissions of NO 3 and SO 2 , alongside a significant increase in mean June, July and April temperatures. Highlights: • Silver fir radial growth was mostly related to mean month late winter temperatures. • Silver fir growth also responded to summer, especially July temperatures. • Strength of the climate–growth response has gradually increased since 1960–1980. • SO 2 , NO 3 , and recent climate change as major factor of the rapid radial growth recovery. -- Reductions of SO 2 and NO 3 emission along with climate change are the major causes of the recent recovery of Silver fir radial growth
Torres-Rueda, Sergio; Wambura, Mwita; Weiss, Helen A; Plotkin, Marya; Kripke, Katharine; Chilongani, Joseph; Mahler, Hally; Kuringe, Evodius; Makokha, Maende; Hellar, Augustino; Schutte, Carl; Kazaura, Kokuhumbya J; Simbeye, Daimon; Mshana, Gerry; Larke, Natasha; Lija, Gissenge; Changalucha, John; Vassall, Anna; Hayes, Richard; Grund, Jonathan M; Terris-Prestholt, Fern
Although voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of HIV acquisition, demand for services is lower among men in most at-risk age groups (ages 20-34 years). A randomised controlled trial was conducted to assess the effectiveness of locally-tailored demand creation activities (including mass media, community mobilisation and targeted service delivery) in increasing uptake of campaign-delivered VMMC among men aged 20-34 years. We conducted an economic evaluation to understand the intervention's cost and cost-effectiveness. Tanzania (Njombe and Tabora regions). Cost data were collected on surgery, demand creation activities and monitoring and supervision related to VMMC implementation across clusters in both trial arms, as well as start-up activities for the intervention arm. The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool was used to estimate the number of HIV infections averted and related cost savings given total VMMCs per cluster. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated and used to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Client load was higher in the intervention arms than in the control arms: 4394 v. 2901, respectively, in Tabora and 1797 v. 1025 in Njombe. Despite additional costs of tailored demand creation, demand increased more than proportionally: mean costs per VMMC in the intervention arms were $62 in Tabora and $130 in Njombe, and in the control arms $70 and $191, respectively. More infections were averted in the intervention arm than in the control arm in Tabora (123 v. 67, respectively) and in Njombe (164 v. 102, respectively). The intervention dominated the control as it was both less costly and more effective. Cost-savings were observed in both regions stemming from the antiretroviral treatment costs averted as a result of the VMMCs performed. Spending more to address local preferences as a way to increase uptake of VMMC can be cost-saving.This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: An effort to promote participation in any type of PA is more effective when it is aimed at needs, interests and preferences of particular target group. Current evidence emphasizes the insufficiency of PA in all age groups. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to analyze and describe the structure of sport activity preferences of high school students and to contribute to prospective improvement of sports and physical activity programs. METHODS: Two standardized questionnaires were used – 1. sport preferences questionnaire, 2. international physical activity questionnaire (IPAQ. The research sample (N = 333 consisted of high school students from the Czech Republic. RESULTS: Our results confirm that the differences between girls and boys are not as great as they were few decades ago. There is a visible dynamic in the development of sport preferences structure. Despite this fact there is a spectrum of sports that are constantly preferred – soccer, volleyball, aerobics and swimming. Acquired results indicate that the range of PA amount in girls varies from 2,372 MET-min/week (15 year old girls to 4,467 MET-min/week (17 year old girls, while acquired results in boys varies from 2,535 MET-min/week (16 year old boys to 4,973 MET-min/week (17 year old boys. The results, if properly applied, could increase the total amount of PA in high school students and improve the effectiveness of school PE.
Voss, Bianca; Thienel, Renate; Reske, Martina; Kellermann, Thilo; Sheldrick, Abigail J; Halfter, Sarah; Radenbach, Katrin; Shah, Nadim J; Habel, Ute; Kircher, Tilo T J
The connection between cholinergic transmission and cognitive performance has been established in behavioural studies. The specific contribution of the muscarinic receptor system on cognitive performance and brain activation, however, has not been evaluated satisfyingly. To investigate the specific contribution of the muscarinic transmission on neural correlates of working memory, we examined the effects of scopolamine, an antagonist of the muscarinic receptors, using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Fifteen healthy male, non-smoking subjects performed a fMRI scanning session following the application of scopolamine (0.4 mg, i.v.) or saline in a placebo-controlled, repeated measure, pseudo-randomized, single-blind design. Working memory was probed using an n-back task. Compared to placebo, challenging the cholinergic transmission with scopolamine resulted in hypoactivations in parietal, occipital and cerebellar areas and hyperactivations in frontal and prefrontal areas. These alterations are interpreted as compensatory strategies used to account for downregulation due to muscarinic acetylcholine blockade in parietal and cerebral storage systems by increased activation in frontal and prefrontal areas related to working memory rehearsal. Our results further underline the importance of cholinergic transmission to working memory performance and determine the specific contribution of muscarinic transmission on cerebral activation associated with executive functioning.
Murray, Susan F; Hunter, Benjamin M; Bisht, Ramila; Ensor, Tim; Bick, Debra
In many countries financing for health services has traditionally been disbursed directly from governmental and non-governmental funding agencies to providers of services: the 'supply-side' of healthcare markets. Demand-side financing offers a supplementary model in which some funds are instead channelled through, or to, prospective users. In this review we considered evidence on five forms of demand-side financing that have been used to promote maternal health in developing countries: OBJECTIVES: The overall review objective was to assess the effects of demand-side financing interventions on maternal health service utilisation and on maternal health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Broader effects on perinatal and infant health, the situation of underprivileged women and the health care system were also assessed. This review considered poor, rural or socially excluded women of all ages who were either pregnant or within 42 days of the conclusion of pregnancy, the limit for postnatal care as defined by the World Health Organization. The review also considered the providers of services.The intervention of interest was any programme that incorporated demand-side financing as a mechanism to increase the consumption of goods and services that could impact on maternal health outcomes. This included the direct consumption of maternal health care goods and services as well as related 'merit goods' such as improved nutrition. We included systems in which potential users of maternal health services are financially empowered to make restricted decisions on buying maternal health-related goods or services - sometimes known as consumer-led demand-side financing. We also included programmes that provided unconditional cash benefits to pregnant women (for example in the form of maternity allowances), or to families with children under five years of age where there was evidence concerning maternal health outcomes.We aimed to include quantitative studies (experimental
Coleman, B. [Bridgestone Ltd. (United Kingdom)
The paper explains how good relationships can help alleviate potential tyre shortages. Demand for large dump truck tyres (largely for China) has increased by 50% within 12 months. Bridgestone's manufacturing plants are operating at maximum capacity. The company supplies tyres to all vehicles at Scottish Coal's opencast coal mines. Its Tyre Management System (TMS) supplied free of charge to customers helps maximise tyre life and minimise downtime from data on pressure, tread and general conditions fed into the hand-held TMS computer. 3 photos.
von Seth, Magnus; Lipcsey, Miklós; Engström, Peter; Larsson, Anders; Hillered, Lars; Maripuu, Enn; Widström, Charles; Sjölin, Jan
Some experimental data suggest that rapid bolus administration of albumin causes less plasma-expanding effects than slow, continuous infusion. To determine whether rapid bolus administration, in comparison with slow infusion, results in greater extravasation of albumin in experimental septic shock we performed a randomized controlled trial with 32 endotoxemic pigs. The animals were monitored and ventilated with standard intensive care equipment and given 10 mL × kg 5% albumin labeled with Technetium-99m, either as a rapid 15-min bolus (Bolus group, n = 16) or as a 2-h infusion (Infusion group, n = 16). Radioactivity was monitored in plasma, extracellular microdialysate, and urine for 6 h. Physiological parameters were monitored hourly. Radioactivity in the liver, spleen, kidney, and lung was analyzed post mortem.The plasma area under the curve activity0-6 h was 4.4 ± 0.9 × 10 in the Bolus group and 4.4 ± 1.1 × 10 counts × min × mL × h in the Infusion group. Blood hemoglobin levels increased in both groups, suggesting severe capillary leakage. Yet, there were no group differences in albumin radioactivity in plasma, muscle tissue, urine, or in the post-mortem analysis of the organs. Following albumin administration, circulatory and respiratory parameters were similar in the two groups.In conclusion, the present results suggest that albumin might be given as a bolus without leading to increased extravasation of albumin, in contrast to previous animal experiments in rodents.
He, Chunyang; Huang, Qingxu; Dou, Yinyin; Tu, Wei; Liu, Jifu
Accurate assessments of the population exposed to seismic hazard are crucial in seismic risk mapping. Recent rapid urbanization in China has resulted in substantial changes in the size and structure of the population exposed to seismic hazard. Using the latest population census data and seismic maps, this work investigated spatiotemporal changes in the exposure of the population in the most seismically hazardous areas (MSHAs) in China from 1990 to 2010. In the context of rapid urbanization and massive rural-to-urban migration, nearly one-tenth of the Chinese population in 2010 lived in MSHAs. From 1990 to 2010, the MSHA population increased by 32.53 million at a significantly higher rate of change (33.6%) than the national average rate (17.7%). The elderly population in MSHAs increased by 81.4%, which is much higher than the group’s national growth rate of 58.9%. Greater attention should be paid to the demographic changes in earthquake-prone areas in China.
Vidas Paleckis, Mantas Mickevičius, Audrius Snieckus, Vytautas Streckis, Mati Pääsuke, Saulius Rutkauskas, Rasa Steponavičiūtė, Albertas Skurvydas, Sigitas Kamandulis
Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess changes in indirect markers of muscle damage and type I collagen degradation, as well as, patellar and Achilles tendon morphological differences during nine daily drop-jumps sessions with constant load alternated with rapid increases in load to test the hypothesis that frequent drop-jump training results in negative muscular and tendon adaptation. Young men (n = 9 performed daily drop jump workouts with progression every 3 days in terms of number of jumps, platform height and squat amplitude. Voluntary and electrically evoked knee extensor torque, muscle soreness, blood plasma creatine kinase (CK activity and carboxyterminal cross-linked telopeptide (ICTP, patellar and Achilles tendon thickness and cross-sectional area (CSA were assessed at different time points during the training period and again on days 1, 3, 10 and 17 after the training. The findings were as follows: (1 steady decline in maximal muscle strength with major recovery within 24 hours after the first six daily training sessions; (2 larger decline in electrically induced muscle torque and prolonged recovery during last three training sessions; (3 increase in patellar and Achilles tendons CSA without change in thickness towards the end of training period; (4 increase in jump height but not in muscle strength after whole training period. Our findings suggest that frequent drop-jump sessions with constant load alternated with rapid increases in load do not induce severe muscle damage or major changes in tendons, nonetheless, this type of loading is not advisable for muscle strength improvement.
Over the past five years, business and education groups have issued a series of reports indicating that the skill demands of work are rising, due to rapid technological change and increasing global competition. Researchers have begun to study changing workplace skill demands. Some economists have found that technological change is…
Low-carbon transition plans for temperate and sub-polar regions typically involve some electrification of space heating. This poses challenges to electricity system operation and market design, as it increases overall demand and alters the temporal patterns of that demand. One response to the challenge is to ‘smarten’ electrical heating, enabling it to respond to network conditions by storing energy at times of plentiful supply, releasing it in response to customer demands and offering rapid-...
Haveraaen, Lise A; Skarpaas, Lisebet S; Berg, John E; Aas, Randi W
Long-term sickness absence is a considerable health and economic problem in the industrialised world. Factors that might predict return to work (RTW) are therefore of interest. To examine the impact of psychosocial work characteristics on RTW three months after the end of a RTW programme. A cohort study of 251 sick-listed employees from 40 different treatment and rehabilitation services in Norway recruited from February to December 2012. The Job Content Questionnaire was used to gather information on the psychosocial work conditions. Full or partial RTW was measured three months after the end of the RTW programme, using data from the national sickness absence register. Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the psychosocial work characteristics and RTW. Having low psychological job demands (OR = 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.9), high co-worker- (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.5-5.8), and supervisor support (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.6-7.3), and being in a low-strain job (low job demands and high control) (OR = 4.6, 95% CI: 1.1-18.6) were predictive of being in work three months after the end of the RTW programme, after adjusting for several potential prognostic factors. Interventions aimed at returning people to work might benefit from putting more emphasise on psychosocial work characteristics in the future.
O'Donnell, Emma; Landolt, Kathleen; Hazi, Agnes; Dragano, Nico; Wright, Bradley J
We assessed in an experimental design whether the stress response towards a work task was moderated by the autonomy to choose a break during the assigned time to complete the task. This setting is defined in accordance with the theoretical framework of the job-demand-control (JDC) model of work related stress. The findings from naturalistic investigations of a stress-buffering effect of autonomy (or 'buffer hypothesis') are equivocal and the experimental evidence is limited, especially with relation to physiological indices of stress. Our objective was to investigate if increased autonomy in a particular domain (break time control) was related with adaptive physiology using objective physiological markers of stress; heart rate variability (HRV) and salivary alpha amylase (sAA). We used a within-subject design and the 60 female participants were randomly assigned to an autonomy (free timing of break) and standard conditions (fixed timing of break) of a word processing task in a simulated office environment in a random order. Participants reported increased perceptions of autonomy, no difference in demand and performed worse in the task in the break-time autonomy versus the standard condition. The results revealed support for the manipulation of increased autonomy, but in the opposing direction. Increased autonomy was related with dysregulated physiological reactivity, synonymous with typical increased stress responses. Potentially, our findings may indicate that autonomy is not necessary a resource but could become an additional stressor when it adds additional complexity while the amount of work (demands) remains unchanged. Further, our findings underscore the need to collect objective physiological evidence of stress to supplement self-reported information. Self-report biases may partially explain the inconsistent findings with the buffer hypothesis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Immerzeel, W.; Droogers, P.
In Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, renewable groundwater and surface water supply are limited while demand for water is growing rapidly. Climate change is expected to increase water demand even further. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the water supply–demand imbalances in
Lemoine, Pablo D; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; Zambrano, Juan Manuel; Sarmiento, Olga L; Meisel, Jose D; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro; Zarama, Roberto
The effect of transport infrastructure on walking is of interest to researchers because it provides an opportunity, from the public policy point of view, to increase physical activity (PA). We use an agent based model (ABM) to examine the effect of transport infrastructure on walking. Particular relevance is given to assess the effect of the growth of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Bogotá on walking. In the ABM agents are assigned a home, work location, and socioeconomic status (SES) based on which they are assigned income for transportation. Individuals must decide between the available modes of transport (i.e., car, taxi, bus, BRT, and walking) as the means of reaching their destination, based on resources and needed travel time. We calibrated the model based on Bogota's 2011 mobility survey. The ABM results are consistent with previous empirical findings, increasing BRT access does indeed increase the number of minutes that individuals walk for transportation, although this effect also depends on the availability of other transport modes. The model indicates a saturation process: as more BRT lanes are added, the increment in minutes walking becomes smaller, and eventually the walking time decreases. Our findings on the potential contribution of the expansion of the BRT system to walking for transportation suggest that ABMs may prove helpful in designing policies to continue promoting walking. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen
This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...
Nugawela, Manjula D; Lewis, Sarah; Szatkowski, Lisa; Langley, Tessa
To evaluate temporal changes in recorded alcohol consumption in Sri Lanka during and after the armed conflict 1998-2013. District level alcohol sales, and mid-year population data for the whole study period (1998-2013) were consistently available from the Department of Excise and the Department of Census and Statistics for 18 of 25 districts. These data were used to estimate the recorded per capita consumption for the areas that were not directly exposed to the armed conflict. An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the impact of the end of the armed conflict on recorded adult per capita alcohol consumption of population lived in the 18 districts. Adult per capita recorded alcohol consumption among Sri Lankans living in the 18 districts was 1.59 l of pure alcohol in 1998. This increased up to 2.07 l in 2009 and 2.55 l in 2013. Prior to the end of the conflict in 2009 adult per capita recorded consumption increased by 0.051 l of pure alcohol per year (95% CI: 0.029-0.074, P increased markedly after the end of the conflict. Rapid socio-economic development, alcohol industry penetration and lack of alcohol control strategies during the post-conflict period may have driven this increase. Adult per capita recorded alcohol consumption among Sri Lankans living in 18 districts that were not directly exposed to the armed conflict increased markedly after the end of the conflict in 2009, with a dramatic acceleration in the trend of per capita beer consumption. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available Low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG are considered to be an indirect index of hyperinsulinemia, predicting the later onset of diabetes mellitus type 2. In the insulin resistance state and in the presence of an increased pancreatic ß-cell demand (e.g. obesity both absolute and relative increases in proinsulin secretion occur. In the present study we investigated the correlation between SHBG and pancreatic ß-cell secretion in men with different body compositions. Eighteen young men (30.0 ± 2.4 years with normal glucose tolerance and body mass indexes (BMI ranging from 22.6 to 43.2 kg/m2 were submitted to an oral glucose tolerance test (75 g and baseline and 120-min blood samples were used to determine insulin, proinsulin and C-peptide by specific immunoassays. Baseline SHBG values were significantly correlated with baseline insulin (r = -0.58, P28 kg/m2, N = 8 and nonobese (BMI £25 kg/m2, N = 10 groups, significantly lower levels of SHBG were found in the obese subjects. The obese group had significantly higher baseline proinsulin, C-peptide and 120-min proinsulin and insulin levels. For the first time using a specific assay for insulin determination, a strong inverse correlation between insulinemia and SHBG levels was confirmed. The finding of a strong negative correlation between SHBG levels and pancreatic ß-cell secretion, mainly for the 120-min post-glucose load proinsulin levels, reinforces the concept that low SHBG levels are a suitable marker of increased pancreatic ß-cell demand.
Mutinelli, Sabrina; Manfredi, Mario; Guiducci, Antonio; Denotti, Gloria; Cozzani, Mauro
Anchorage onto permanent dentition is a common procedure in rapid maxillary expansion. However, replacing first permanent molars with the second deciduous molars seems to be an option to reduce some negative side effects during orthodontic treatment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the dental effect of rapid maxillary expansion with anchorage exclusively onto deciduous teeth performed in the first period of transition. Twenty patients with a lateral cross-bite treated exclusively by a Haas expander in early mixed dentition were retrospectively analyzed before treatment, at appliance removal, and at 21 months out of retention. The sagittal and transverse dimensions, together with the inter-canine arch and irregularity index, were digitally measured on scanned images of dental casts. The patients were compared with three balanced control groups (in total, 60 individuals) matched for gender. Two control groups had the same canine dental class as the treated group at T1, were in the inter-transitional period, and either had or lacked a lateral cross-bite. The last control group was comprised of adolescents in permanent dentition with a dental class I. The statistical analysis was performed by means of repeated-measures ANOVA for paired data and one-way ANOVA, the Kruskal-Wallis test, and the Mann-Whitney test for independent measures (α-level p dentition), the dental arch dimensions of treated patients were similar to those of adolescents with a dental class I and significantly wider than those of patients with a lateral cross-bite. Also, the anterior irregularity index was lower among patients who had undergone expansion treatments than in all untreated study participants. The Haas expander anchored to the deciduous teeth is effective in increasing the dental arch width in patients with a lateral cross-bite. The dimensions of the dental arch were modified earlier toward the values of the permanent dentition.
Full Text Available An important virulence strategy evolved by bacterial pathogens to overcome host defenses is the modulation of host cell death. Previous observations have indicated that Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague disease, exhibits restricted capacity to induce cell death in macrophages due to ineffective translocation of the type III secretion effector YopJ, as opposed to the readily translocated YopP, the YopJ homologue of the enteropathogen Yersinia enterocolitica Oratio8. This led us to suggest that reduced cytotoxic potency may allow pathogen propagation within a shielded niche, leading to increased virulence. To test the relationship between cytotoxic potential and virulence, we replaced Y. pestis YopJ with YopP. The YopP-expressing Y. pestis strain exhibited high cytotoxic activity against macrophages in vitro. Following subcutaneous infection, this strain had reduced ability to colonize internal organs, was unable to induce septicemia and exhibited at least a 10(7-fold reduction in virulence. Yet, upon intravenous or intranasal infection, it was still as virulent as the wild-type strain. The subcutaneous administration of the cytotoxic Y. pestis strain appears to activate a rapid and potent systemic, CTL-independent, immunoprotective response, allowing the organism to overcome simultaneous coinfection with 10,000 LD(50 of virulent Y. pestis. Moreover, three days after subcutaneous administration of this strain, animals were also protected against septicemic or primary pneumonic plague. Our findings indicate that an inverse relationship exists between the cytotoxic potential of Y. pestis and its virulence following subcutaneous infection. This appears to be associated with the ability of the engineered cytotoxic Y. pestis strain to induce very rapid, effective and long-lasting protection against bubonic and pneumonic plague. These observations have novel implications for the development of vaccines/therapies against Y. pestis and shed
There is increasing demand for fast, reliable servicing of wind power systems. WTS, an Ibbenbueren-based organisation, offer retrofitting of secondary flow filter systems for lubricating oils, alarm signals for aircraft traffic, the SOBO soft braking system for medium-sized plants, and complete assembly both nationally and internationally (rotors, gearing, offshore systems). [German] Die Nachfrage nach einem schnellen, zuverlaessigen Service rund um die Wind Kraft Anlagen steigt. WTS aus Ibbenbuehren, bisher sehr erfolgreich in der Nachruestung von Nebenstromfilteranlagen fuer Getriebeoele, in der Ausruestung mit Gefahrfeuern fuer die Flugsicherung, in der Nachruestung mittelgrosser Anlagen mit dem SOBO Softbremssystem zur Schonung der wertvollen Bauteile, sowie in der kompletten Anlagenmontage national und international, erweitert das Angebot (fuer den Rotor; das Getriebe und die Planung im Offshore Markt). (orig./AKF)
Kwon, Young-Jin [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs.
Korea s natural gas demand has increase enormously since 1986. Natural gas demand in Korea will approach to 29 million tonnes by the year 2010, from little over 9 million tonnes in 1996. This rapid expansion of natural gas demand is largely due to regulations for environmental protection by the government as well as consumers preference to natural gas over other sources of energy. Especially industrial use of gas will expand faster than other use of gas, although it will not be as high as that in European and North America countries. To meet the enormous increase in demand, Korean government and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS) are undertaking expansion of capacities of natural gas supply facilities, and are seeking diversification of import sources, including participation in major gas projects, to secure the import sources on more reliable grounds. (Author). 5 tabs
Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter
Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency
Buchaca, Teresa; Skov, Tue; Amsinck, Susanne Lildal
Lake ecosystems are nowadays often subjected to multi-stressors, such as eutrophication, climate change, and fish manipulations, the effects of which can be difficult to disentangle, not least from the usual short-term limnological time-series that are available. However, multi-proxy paleoecologi......Lake ecosystems are nowadays often subjected to multi-stressors, such as eutrophication, climate change, and fish manipulations, the effects of which can be difficult to disentangle, not least from the usual short-term limnological time-series that are available. However, multi......, meteorological forcing, and fish species introduction for recent lake ecosystem development in Lake Furnas on the island of Sa˜o Miguel, the Azores. The lake was stocked with cyprinids in the late nineteenth century and recently also with piscivorous fish, and has been affected by increasing agricultural......, and cryptophytes. The composition of microbial and algal assemblages changed rapidly after Daphnia appearance, and the covariance between fish stocking, nutrient loading, and enhanced temperatures captured most of the variability in algae accumulation, and thus likely in lake primary production as well. Thus, lake...
Lopes-Silva, Joao P; Felippe, Leandro J C; Silva-Cavalcante, Marcos D; Bertuzzi, Romulo; Lima-Silva, Adriano E
The objective of this study was to examine the effect of caffeine on judo performance, perceived exertion, and plasma lactate response when ingested during recovery from a 5-day weight loss period. Six judokas performed two cycles of a 5-day rapid weight loss procedure to reduce their body weight by ~5%. After weigh-in, subjects re-fed and rehydrated over a 4-h recovery period. In the third hour of this "loading period", subjects ingested a capsule containing either caffeine (6 mg·kg-1) or placebo. One hour later, participants performed three bouts of a judo fitness test with 5-min recovery periods. Perceived exertion and plasma lactate were measured before and immediately after each test bout. Body weight was reduced in both caffeine and placebo conditions after the weight loss period (-3.9% ± 1.6% and -4.0% ± 2.3% from control, respectively, p caffeine or placebo groups. However, plasma lactate was systemically higher and perceived exertion lower in the subjects who ingested caffeine compared to either the control or placebo subjects (p caffeine did not improve performance during the judo fitness test after a 5-day weight loss period, but reduced perceived exertion and increased plasma lactate.
Modrek, Sepideh; Schatzkin, Eric; De La Cruz, Anna; Isiguzo, Chinwoke; Nwokolo, Ernest; Anyanti, Jennifer; Ujuju, Chinazo; Montagu, Dominic; Liu, Jenny
The World Health Organization now recommends parasitological confirmation for malaria case management. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria are an accurate and simple diagnostic to confirm parasite presence in blood. However, where they have been deployed, adherence to RDT results has been poor, especially when the test result is negative. Few studies have examined adherence to RDTs distributed or purchased through the private sector. The Rapid Examination of Malaria and Evaluation of Diagnostic Information (REMEDI) study assessed the acceptability of and adherence to RDT results for patients seeking care from private sector drug retailers in two cities in Oyo State in south-west Nigeria. In total, 465 adult participants were enrolled upon exit from a participating drug shop having purchased anti-malaria drugs for themselves. Participants were given a free RDT and the appropriate treatment advice based on their RDT result. Short Message Service (SMS) text messages reiterating the treatment advice were sent to a randomly selected half of the participants one day after being tested. Participants were contacted via phone four days after the RDT was conducted to assess adherence to the RDT information and treatment advice. Adherence to RDT results was 14.3 percentage points (P-val <0.001) higher in the treatment group who were sent the SMS. The higher adherence in the treatment group was robust to several specification tests and the estimated difference in adherence ranged from 9.7 to 16.1 percentage points. Further, the higher adherence to the treatment advice was specific to the treatment advice for anti-malarial drugs and not other drugs purchased to treat malaria symptoms in the RDT-negative participants who bought both anti-malarial and symptom drugs. There was no difference in adherence for the RDT-positive participants who were sent the SMS. SMS text messages substantially increased adherence to RDT results for patients seeking care for malaria from
Joao P. Lopes-Silva
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine the effect of caffeine on judo performance, perceived exertion, and plasma lactate response when ingested during recovery from a 5-day weight loss period. Six judokas performed two cycles of a 5-day rapid weight loss procedure to reduce their body weight by ~5%. After weigh-in, subjects re-fed and rehydrated over a 4-h recovery period. In the third hour of this “loading period”, subjects ingested a capsule containing either caffeine (6 mg·kg−1 or placebo. One hour later, participants performed three bouts of a judo fitness test with 5-min recovery periods. Perceived exertion and plasma lactate were measured before and immediately after each test bout. Body weight was reduced in both caffeine and placebo conditions after the weight loss period (−3.9% ± 1.6% and −4.0% ± 2.3% from control, respectively, p < 0.05. At three hours after weigh-in, body weight had increased with both treatments but remained below the control (−3.0% ± 1.3% and −2.7% ± 2.2%. There were no significant differences in the number of throws between the control, caffeine or placebo groups. However, plasma lactate was systemically higher and perceived exertion lower in the subjects who ingested caffeine compared to either the control or placebo subjects (p < 0.05. In conclusion, caffeine did not improve performance during the judo fitness test after a 5-day weight loss period, but reduced perceived exertion and increased plasma lactate.
Hindle, Samantha; Afsari, Farinaz; Stark, Meg; Middleton, C. Adam; Evans, Gareth J.O.; Sweeney, Sean T.; Elliott, Christopher J.H.
Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with loss of dopaminergic signalling, and affects not just movement, but also vision. As both mammalian and fly visual systems contain dopaminergic neurons, we investigated the effect of LRRK2 mutations (the most common cause of inherited PD) on Drosophila electroretinograms (ERGs). We reveal progressive loss of photoreceptor function in flies expressing LRRK2-G2019S in dopaminergic neurons. The photoreceptors showed elevated autophagy, apoptosis and mitochondrial disorganization. Head sections confirmed extensive neurodegeneration throughout the visual system, including regions not directly innervated by dopaminergic neurons. Other PD-related mutations did not affect photoreceptor function, and no loss of vision was seen with kinase-dead transgenics. Manipulations of the level of Drosophila dLRRK suggest G2019S is acting as a gain-of-function, rather than dominant negative mutation. Increasing activity of the visual system, or of just the dopaminergic neurons, accelerated the G2019S-induced deterioration of vision. The fly visual system provides an excellent, tractable model of a non-autonomous deficit reminiscent of that seen in PD, and suggests that increased energy demand may contribute to the mechanism by which LRRK2-G2019S causes neurodegeneration. PMID:23396536
Mutinelli, Sabrina; Manfredi, Mario; Guiducci, Antonio; Denotti, Gloria; Cozzani, Mauro
Background Anchorage onto permanent dentition is a common procedure in rapid maxillary expansion. However, replacing first permanent molars with the second deciduous molars seems to be an option to reduce some negative side effects during orthodontic treatment. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the dental effect of rapid maxillary expansion with anchorage exclusively onto deciduous teeth performed in the first period of transition. Methods Twenty patients with a lateral cross-bite tre...
Graham, Amanda L; Milner, Pat; Saul, Jessie E; Pfaff, Lillian
To improve the overall impact (reach x efficacy) of cessation treatments and to reduce the population prevalence of smoking, innovative strategies are needed that increase consumer demand for and use of cessation treatments. Given that 12 million people search for smoking cessation information each year, online advertising may represent a cost-efficient approach to reach and recruit online smokers to treatment. Online ads can be implemented in many forms, and surveys consistently show that consumers are receptive. Few studies have examined the potential of online advertising to recruit smokers to cessation treatments. The aims of the study were to (1) demonstrate the feasibility of online advertising as a strategy to increase consumer demand for cessation treatments, (2) illustrate the tools that can be used to track and evaluate the impact of online advertising on treatment utilization, and (3) highlight some of the methodological challenges and future directions for researchers. An observational design was used to examine the impact of online advertising compared to traditional recruitment approaches (billboards, television and radio ads, outdoor advertising, direct mail, and physician detailing) on several dependent variables: (1) number of individuals who enrolled in Web- or telephone-based cessation treatment, (2) the demographic, smoking, and treatment utilization characteristics of smokers recruited to treatment, and (3) the cost to enroll smokers. Several creative approaches to online ads (banner ads, paid search) were tested on national and local websites and search engines. The comparison group was comprised of individuals who registered for Web-based cessation treatment in response to traditional advertising during the same time period. A total of 130,214 individuals responded to advertising during the study period: 23,923 (18.4%) responded to traditional recruitment approaches and 106,291 (81.6%) to online ads. Of those who clicked on an online ad, 9655
Milner, Pat; Saul, Jessie E; Pfaff, Lillian
Background To improve the overall impact (reach × efficacy) of cessation treatments and to reduce the population prevalence of smoking, innovative strategies are needed that increase consumer demand for and use of cessation treatments. Given that 12 million people search for smoking cessation information each year, online advertising may represent a cost-efficient approach to reach and recruit online smokers to treatment. Online ads can be implemented in many forms, and surveys consistently show that consumers are receptive. Few studies have examined the potential of online advertising to recruit smokers to cessation treatments. Objective The aims of the study were to (1) demonstrate the feasibility of online advertising as a strategy to increase consumer demand for cessation treatments, (2) illustrate the tools that can be used to track and evaluate the impact of online advertising on treatment utilization, and (3) highlight some of the methodological challenges and future directions for researchers. Methods An observational design was used to examine the impact of online advertising compared to traditional recruitment approaches (billboards, television and radio ads, outdoor advertising, direct mail, and physician detailing) on several dependent variables: (1) number of individuals who enrolled in Web- or telephone-based cessation treatment, (2) the demographic, smoking, and treatment utilization characteristics of smokers recruited to treatment, and (3) the cost to enroll smokers. Several creative approaches to online ads (banner ads, paid search) were tested on national and local websites and search engines. The comparison group was comprised of individuals who registered for Web-based cessation treatment in response to traditional advertising during the same time period. Results A total of 130,214 individuals responded to advertising during the study period: 23,923 (18.4%) responded to traditional recruitment approaches and 106,291 (81.6%) to online ads. Of
Full Text Available The case rate of Q fever in Europe has increased dramatically in recent years, mainly because of an epidemic in the Netherlands in 2009. Consequently, there is a need for more extensive genetic characterization of the disease agent Coxiella burnetii in order to better understand the epidemiology and spread of this disease. Genome reference data are essential for this purpose, but only thirteen genome sequences are currently available. Current methods for typing C. burnetii are criticized for having problems in comparing results across laboratories, require the use of genomic control DNA, and/or rely on markers in highly variable regions. We developed in this work a method for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP typing of C. burnetii isolates and tissue samples based on new assays targeting ten phylogenetically stable synonymous canonical SNPs (canSNPs. These canSNPs represent previously known phylogenetic branches and were here identified from sequence comparisons of twenty-one C. burnetii genomes, eight of which were sequenced in this work. Importantly, synthetic control templates were developed, to make the method useful to laboratories lacking genomic control DNA. An analysis of twenty-one C. burnetii genomes confirmed that the species exhibits high sequence identity. Most of its SNPs (7,493/7,559 shared by >1 genome follow a clonal inheritance pattern and are therefore stable phylogenetic typing markers. The assays were validated using twenty-six genetically diverse C. burnetii isolates and three tissue samples from small ruminants infected during the epidemic in the Netherlands. Each sample was assigned to a clade. Synthetic controls (vector and PCR amplified gave identical results compared to the corresponding genomic controls and are viable alternatives to genomic DNA. The results from the described method indicate that it could be useful for cheap and rapid disease source tracking at non-specialized laboratories, which requires accurate
Andersen, Esben Sloth
the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....
Paul C Coleman
Full Text Available Virtually all temperate insects survive the winter by entering a physiological state of reduced metabolic activity termed diapause. However, there is increasing evidence that climate change is disrupting the diapause response resulting in non-diapause life stages encountering periods of winter cold. This is a significant problem for adult life stages in particular, as they must remain mobile, periodically feed, and potentially initiate reproductive development at a time when resources should be diverted to enhance stress tolerance. Here we present the first evidence of protein/meat feeding restricting rapid cold hardening (RCH ability and increasing low temperature activity thresholds. No RCH response was noted in adult female blow flies (Calliphora vicina Robineau-Desvoidy fed a sugar, water and liver (SWL diet, while a strong RCH response was seen in females fed a diet of sugar and water (SW only. The RCH response in SW flies was induced at temperatures as high as 10°C, but was strongest following 3h at 0°C. The CTmin (loss of coordinated movement and chill coma (final appendage twitch temperature of SWL females (-0.3 ± 0.5°C and -4.9 ± 0.5°C, respectively was significantly higher than for SW females (-3.2 ± 0.8°C and -8.5 ± 0.6°C. We confirmed this was not directly the result of altered extracellular K+, as activity thresholds of alanine-fed adults were not significantly different from SW flies. Instead we suggest the loss of cold tolerance is more likely the result of diverting resource allocation to egg development. Between 2009 and 2013 winter air temperatures in Birmingham, UK, fell below the CTmin of SW and SWL flies on 63 and 195 days, respectively, suggesting differential exposure to chill injury depending on whether adults had access to meat or not. We conclude that disruption of diapause could significantly impact on winter survival through loss of synchrony in the timing of active feeding and reproductive development with
Teuffel, Pauline; Goebel-Stengel, Miriam; Hofmann, Tobias; Prinz, Philip; Scharner, Sophie; Körner, Jan L; Grötzinger, Carsten; Rose, Matthias; Klapp, Burghard F; Stengel, Andreas
Research in the field of food intake regulation is gaining importance. This often includes the measurement of peptides regulating food intake. For the correct determination of a peptide's concentration, it should be stable during blood processing. However, this is not the case for several peptides which are quickly degraded by endogenous peptidases. Recently, we developed a blood processing method employing Reduced temperatures, Acidification, Protease inhibition, Isotopic exogenous controls and Dilution (RAPID) for the use in rats. Here, we have established this technique for the use in humans and investigated recovery, molecular form and circulating concentration of food intake regulatory hormones. The RAPID method significantly improved the recovery for (125)I-labeled somatostatin-28 (+39%), glucagon-like peptide-1 (+35%), acyl ghrelin and glucagon (+32%), insulin and kisspeptin (+29%), nesfatin-1 (+28%), leptin (+21%) and peptide YY3-36 (+19%) compared to standard processing (EDTA blood on ice, p processing, while after standard processing 62% of acyl ghrelin were degraded resulting in an earlier peak likely representing desacyl ghrelin. After RAPID processing the acyl/desacyl ghrelin ratio in blood of normal weight subjects was 1:3 compared to 1:23 following standard processing (p = 0.03). Also endogenous kisspeptin levels were higher after RAPID compared to standard processing (+99%, p = 0.02). The RAPID blood processing method can be used in humans, yields higher peptide levels and allows for assessment of the correct molecular form.
This paper examines the demand for edible oil in Pakistan and a dynamic supply response model to show price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers. The demand for edible oil is estimated by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It has been found that an increase in the consumption of edible oil is highly affected by urbanization, increase in per capita income, relative high price of its substitutes and the rapid growth of the population. In order to estimate supply response model ...
Martina A. Doblin
mitigate the negative consequences of increased stratification due to ocean warming, but also increase the biological demand for iron that is necessary to sustain the growth of large-celled phototrophs and potentially support the diversity of diazotrophs over longer time-scales.
Rubinstein, Adolfo; Belizán, María; Discacciati, Vilda
After 4 years of deepening recession, Argentina's economy plummeted after default in 2002. This crisis critically affected health expenditures and triggered acute rationing. Our objective was to explore health decision-makers' knowledge and attitudes about economic evaluations (EE) and whether health technology assessment (HTA) were increasingly used for decision making. A qualitative design based on semistructured interviews and focus groups was used to explore how decision makers belonging to different health sectors implement resource allocation decisions. Informants were mostly unaware of EE. The most important criteria mentioned to adopt a treatment were evidence of effectiveness, social/stakeholder demand, or resource availability. Despite general positive attitudes about EE, knowledge was rather limited. Although cost considerations were widely accepted by purchasers and managers, clinicians argued about these issues as interfering with the doctor-patient relationship. Other important perceived barriers to HTA use were lack of confidence in the transferability of studies conducted in developed countries and institutional fragmentation of the Argentine healthcare system. The new macroeconomic context was cited as a justification of implicit rationing measures. Although explicit priority setting was implemented by many purchasers and managers, HTA was not used to improve technical and/or allocative efficiency. The crisis seems to be a strong incentive to extend the use of HTA in Argentina, provided decision makers are aware as well as involved in the generation of local studies.
Ríos, Rosalva; Santoyo, Martha E; Cruz, Daniela; Delgado, Juan Manuel; Zarazúa, Sergio; Jiménez-Capdeville, María E
Arsenic toxicity has been related to its interference with one carbon metabolism, where a high demand of S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) for arsenic methylation as well as a failure of its regeneration would compromise the availability of methyl groups for diverse cellular functions. Since exposed animals show disturbances of methylated products such as methylated arginines, myelin and axon membranes, this work investigates whether alterations of SAM, choline and phosphatidylcholine (PC) in the brain of arsenic exposed rats are associated with myelin alterations and myelin basic protein (MBP) immunoreactivity. Also these metabolites, morphologic and biochemical markers of methyl group alterations were analyzed in the liver, the main site of arsenic methylation. In adult, life-long arsenic exposed rats through drinking water (3 ppm), no changes of SAM, choline and PC concentrations where found in the brain, but SAM and PC were severely decreased in liver accompanied by a significant increase of choline. These results suggest that choline plays an important role as methyl donor in arsenic exposure, which could underlie hepatic affections observed when arsenic exposure is combined with other environmental factors. Also, important myelin and nerve fiber alterations, accompanied by a 75% decrease of MBP immunoreactivity were not associated with a SAM deficit in the brain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Shah-Ghassemzadeh, Nicole K; Jackson, Christian S; Juma, David; Strong, Richard M
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer deaths in the USA. Despite a recent rise in CRC screening there remains an increasing demand for colonoscopy, yet a limited supply of gastroenterologists who can meet this need. To determine if a mid-career general internist (GIN) could be trained to perform high-quality colonoscopes via an intensive training programme. A GIN trained 2-3 days/week, 4-5 hours/day, for 7 months with an experienced gastroenterologist. Their independent performance was then compared with that of a gastroenterology attending (GA), with and without a gastroenterology fellow (GF). The primary outcome was to compare caecal intubation rates, adenoma detection rates (ADRs), interval CRC rates and complications between the three groups. 989 patients were initially included in the study, and 818 were included in the final analysis. Caecal intubation rates were 95%, 94% and 93% for the GIN, GA+GF and GA, respectively (p=0.31). The overall polyp detection rates were 68%, 39% and 44% among the GIN, GA+GF and GA, respectively (pdemand for colonoscopists. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.
Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement
The report provides a suite of recommended strategies to reduce single-occupant vehicle traffic in the urban : areas of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, which are presented as a travel demand management toolbox. The : toolbox includes supporting research...
Becker, Sara J
Fewer than one in 10 adolescents with substance use disorders (ASUDs) will receive specialty treatment, and even fewer will receive treatment designated as evidence-based practice (EBP). Traditional efforts to increase the utilization of EBP by ASUDs typically focus on practitioners-either in substance use clinics or allied health settings. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) marketing that directly targets parents of ASUDs represents a potentially complementary paradigm that has yet to be evaluated. The current study is the first to evaluate the relevance of a well-established marketing framework (the Marketing Mix) and measurement approach (measurement of perceived service quality [PSQ]) with parents of ASUDs in need of treatment. A mixed-methods design is employed across three study phases, consistent with well-established methods used in the field of marketing science. Phase 1 consists of formative qualitative research with parents (and a supplementary sample of adolescents) in order to evaluate and potentially adapt a conceptual framework (Marketing Mix) and measure of PSQ. Phase 2 is a targeted survey of ASUD parents to elucidate their marketing preferences, using the adapted Marketing Mix framework, and to establish the psychometric properties of the PSQ measure. The survey will also gather data on parents' preferences for different targeted marketing messages. Phase 3 is a two-group randomized controlled trial comparing the effectiveness of targeted marketing messages versus standard clinical information. Key outcomes will include parents' ratings of PSQ (using the new measure), behavioral intentions to seek out information about EBP, and actual information-seeking behavior. The current study will inform the field whether a well-established marketing framework and measurement approach can be used to increase demand for EBP among parents of ASUDs. Results of this study will have the potential to immediately inform DTC marketing efforts by professional organizations
Arroz, Jorge A H; Mendis, Chandana; Pinto, Liliana; Candrinho, Baltazar; Pinto, João; Martins, Maria do Rosário O
The universal coverage bed nets campaign is a proven health intervention promoting increased access, ownership, and use of bed nets to reduce malaria burden. This article describes the intervention and implementation strategies that Mozambique carried out recently in order to improve access and increase demand for long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). A before-and-after study with a control group was used during Stage I of the implementation process. The following strategies were tested in Stage I: (1) use of coupons during household registration; (2) use of stickers to identify the registered households; (3) new LLIN ascription formula (one LLIN for every two people). In Stage II, the following additional strategies were implemented: (4) mapping and micro-planning; (5) training; and (6) supervision. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to compare and establish differences between intervened and control districts in Stage I. Main outcomes were: percentage of LLINs distributed, percentage of target households benefited. In Stage I, 87.8% (302,648) of planned LLINs were distributed in the intervention districts compared to 77.1% (219,613) in the control districts [OR: 2.14 (95% CI 2.11-2.16)]. Stage I results also showed that 80.6% (110,453) of households received at least one LLIN in the intervention districts compared to 72.8% (87,636) in the control districts [OR: 1.56 (95% CI 1.53-1.59)]. In Stage II, 98.4% (3,536,839) of the allocated LLINs were delivered, covering 98.6% (1,353,827) of the registered households. Stage I results achieved better LLINs and household coverage in districts with the newly implemented strategies. The results of stage II were also encouraging. Additional strategies adaptation is required for a wide-country LLIN campaign.
Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor
It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...
Vergallito, Alessandra; Romero Lauro, Leonor J; Bonandrini, Rolando; Zapparoli, Laura; Danelli, Laura; Berlingeri, Manuela
Neuroimaging studies suggest that the increment of the cognitive load associated with a specific task may induce the recruitment of a more bilateral brain network. In most studies, however, task demand has been manipulated in a static and pre-specified way, regardless of individual cognitive resources. Here we implemented a new paradigm based on a pre-experimental assessment to set up subject-specific levels of task demand and applied tDCS (transcranial direct current stimulation) to assess each hemisphere involvement in task performance. 24 young participants performed a digit span backward (DSB, complex cognitive function) and a paced finger tapping task (pFT, basic motor function) at 3 levels of subject-specific task demand ("low" 5/5 correct answers, "medium" 3/5, "high" 1/5). Anodal tDCS (20min, 1.5mA) was delivered through a target electrode (5 × 5cm) positioned to stimulate both the inferior frontal gyrus and the primary motor area over left and right hemisphere and in sham condition in three different days. A 3 (left, right, sham) × 3 (low, medium, high) mixed-model with random intercept for subjects was run with R software. As expected, in both tasks accuracy decreased with the increment of subject-specific task demand. Moreover, a significant interaction between type of stimulation and subject-specific task demand was found for the reaction times recorded during the DSB and for the accuracy in the pFT: in the most demanding conditions, right anodal tDCS significantly interfered with behavioural performance. Our results suggest that hemispheric lateralization is modulated by the subject-specific level of task demand and this modulation is not task-specific. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kihl, Maria; Larsson, Robin; Unnervik, Niclas; Haberkamm, Jolina; Arvidsson, Åke; Aurelius, Andreas
Data volumes in communication networks increase rapidly. Further, usage of social network applications is very wide spread among users, and among these applications, Facebook is the most popular. In this paper, we analyse user demands patterns and content popularity of Facebook generated traffic. The data comes from residential users in two metropolitan access networks in Sweden, and we analyse more than 17 million images downloaded by almost 16,000 Facebook users. We show that the distributi...
Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)
Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved
The article relates to the oil and natural gas market, and it gives a survey of proved reserves at the end of 1996 worldwide. The long term trend of increasing world energy demand has seen a major rise during 1996 when global consumption grew by 3%. But worldwide demand, excluding the Former Soviet Union, shows this figure increasing further to 3.7% for the whole of last year according to statistics. 3 figs
Verschoof, Sandra; Kuijer, P. Paul F. M.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.
A PCM rolling floor (R) (RF) was developed to reduce the risk of musculoskeletal complaints among truck drivers. The RF can be used to move packed goods automatically in and out of the cargo space. The efficacy of this intervention on physical work demands, energetic and perceived workload and
Güttler, D.; Adolphi, F.; Beer, J.; Bleicher, N.; Boswijk, G.; Christl, M.; Hogg, A.; Palmer, J.; Vockenhuber, C.; Wacker, L.; Wunder, J.
In 2012, Miyake et al. reported a sudden and strong increase of the atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) content in Japanese cedar trees of 1.2% between AD 774 and 775. While their findings were quickly confirmed by a German oak chronology for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the question remained if the effect was seen in both hemispheres. Here we present the first annually resolved Southern Hemisphere (SH) 14C record spanning the interval AD 760-787, using New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) chronology wood. An almost identical distinct increase compared to Northern Hemisphere data was observed, suggesting a cosmic event with globally uniform impact as a potential cause for the increase. Deploying a carbon cycle box model a worldwide averaged net 14C production of 2.2 ×108 14C atoms cm-2 was estimated, which is 3.7 times higher than the average annual 14C production. The immediate appearance of the event in tree rings on both hemispheres suggests a short duration event of significantly less than 1 yr.
Ryder Oliver A
Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the small number of ursid species, bear phylogeny has long been a focus of study due to their conservation value, as all bear genera have been classified as endangered at either the species or subspecies level. The Ursidae family represents a typical example of rapid evolutionary radiation. Previous analyses with a single mitochondrial (mt gene or a small number of mt genes either provide weak support or a large unresolved polytomy for ursids. We revisit the contentious relationships within Ursidae by analyzing complete mt genome sequences and evaluating the performance of both entire mt genomes and constituent mtDNA genes in recovering a phylogeny of extremely recent speciation events. Results This mitochondrial genome-based phylogeny provides strong evidence that the spectacled bear diverged first, while within the genus Ursus, the sloth bear is the sister taxon of all the other five ursines. The latter group is divided into the brown bear/polar bear and the two black bears/sun bear assemblages. These findings resolve the previous conflicts between trees using partial mt genes. The ability of different categories of mt protein coding genes to recover the correct phylogeny is concordant with previous analyses for taxa with deep divergence times. This study provides a robust Ursidae phylogenetic framework for future validation by additional independent evidence, and also has significant implications for assisting in the resolution of other similarly difficult phylogenetic investigations. Conclusion Identification of base composition bias and utilization of the combined data of whole mitochondrial genome sequences has allowed recovery of a strongly supported phylogeny that is upheld when using multiple alternative outgroups for the Ursidae, a mammalian family that underwent a rapid radiation since the mid- to late Pliocene. It remains to be seen if the reliability of mt genome analysis will hold up in studies of other
Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H
Convective precipitation-localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent-is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.
Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Fatichi, Simone; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo
The rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to stimulate plant productivity by enhancing photosynthesis and reducing stomatal conductance and thus increasing plant water use efficiency (WUE) worldwide. An analysis of eddy covariance flux tower data from 21 forested ecosystems across the north hemisphere detected an unexpectedly large increase in WUE (Keenan et al, 2013), which was six times larger than the increase found by most previous studies based on controlled experiments (e.g., FACE), leaf-scale analyses, and numerical modelling. This increase could be solely attributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since other confounding factors were ruled out. Here, we investigate the potential contribution of plant plasticity, reflected in the temporal adjustment of major plant physiological traits, on changes in WUE using the ecohydrological model Tethys and Chloris (T&C). We hypothesize that the increase in WUE can be attributed to small variations in plant physiological traits, undetectable through observations, eventually triggered by the atmospheric CO2 increase. Data from the 21 sites in the above mentioned study are used to force the model. Simulation results with and without plasticity in the physiological traits (i.e., model parameters in our numerical experiments) are compared with the observed trends in WUE. We test several plant adaptation strategies in being effective in explaining the observed increase in WUE using a multifactorial numerical experiment in which we perturb in a systematic way selected plant parameters. Keenan, T. F., Hollinger, D. Y., Bohrer, G., Dragoni, D., Munger, J. W., Schmid, H. P., and Richardson, A. D. (2013). Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise. Nature, 499(7458), 324-7.
Leung, L. R.; Balaguru, K.; Foltz, G. R.
During the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, several hurricanes underwent rapid intensification (RI) in the central-eastern Atlantic. This motivates an analysis of trends in the strength of hurricane RI during the 30-year post-satellite period of 1986-2015. Our results show that in the eastern tropical Atlantic, to the east of 60W, the mean RI magnitude averaged during 2001-2015 was 3.8 kt per 24 hr higher than during 1986-2000. However, in the western tropical Atlantic, to the west of 60W, changes in RI magnitude over the same period were not statistically significant. We examined the large-scale environment to understand the causes behind these changes in RI magnitude and found that various oceanic and atmospheric parameters that play an important role in RI changed favorably in the eastern tropical Atlantic. More specifically, changes in SST, Potential Intensity, upper-ocean heat content, wind shear, relative humidity and upper-level divergence enhanced the ability for hurricanes to undergo RI in the eastern tropical Atlantic. In contrast, changes in the same factors are inconsistent in the western tropical Atlantic. While changes in SST and Potential Intensity were positive, changes in upper-ocean heat content, wind shear and upper-level divergence were either insignificant or unfavorable for RI. Finally, we examined the potential role of various climate phenomena, which are well-known to impact Atlantic hurricane activity, in causing the changes in the large-scale environment. Our analysis reveals that changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the 30-year period are predominantly responsible. These results provide important aspects of the large-scale context to understand the Atlantic hurricane season of 2017.
Patel, A; Nouraei, S A R
Emergency and difficult tracheal intubations are hazardous undertakings where successive laryngoscopy-hypoxaemia-re-oxygenation cycles can escalate to airway loss and the 'can't intubate, can't ventilate' scenario. Between 2013 and 2014, we extended the apnoea times of 25 patients with difficult airways who were undergoing general anaesthesia for hypopharyngeal or laryngotracheal surgery. This was achieved through continuous delivery of transnasal high-flow humidified oxygen, initially to provide pre-oxygenation, and continuing as post-oxygenation during intravenous induction of anaesthesia and neuromuscular blockade until a definitive airway was secured. Apnoea time commenced at administration of neuromuscular blockade and ended with commencement of jet ventilation, positive-pressure ventilation or recommencement of spontaneous ventilation. During this time, upper airway patency was maintained with jaw-thrust. Transnasal Humidified Rapid-Insufflation Ventilatory Exchange (THRIVE) was used in 15 males and 10 females. Mean (SD [range]) age at treatment was 49 (15 [25-81]) years. The median (IQR [range]) Mallampati grade was 3 (2-3 [2-4]) and direct laryngoscopy grade was 3 (3-3 [2-4]). There were 12 obese patients and nine patients were stridulous. The median (IQR [range]) apnoea time was 14 (9-19 [5-65]) min. No patient experienced arterial desaturation gaseous exchange through flow-dependent deadspace flushing. It has the potential to transform the practice of anaesthesia by changing the nature of securing a definitive airway in emergency and difficult intubations from a pressured stop-start process to a smooth and unhurried undertaking. © 2014 The Authors Anaesthesia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.
Yorgason, Jordan T; España, Rodrigo A; Konstantopoulos, Joanne K; Weiner, Jeffrey L; Jones, Sara R
Social isolation (SI) rearing, a model of early life stress, results in profound behavioral alterations, including increased anxiety-like behavior, impaired sensorimotor gating and increased self-administration of addictive substances. These changes are accompanied by alterations in mesolimbic dopamine function, such as increased dopamine and metabolite tissue content, increased dopamine responses to cues and psychostimulants, and increased dopamine neuron burst firing. Using voltammetric techniques, we examined the effects of SI rearing on dopamine transporter activity, vesicular release and dopamine D2-type autoreceptor activity in the nucleus accumbens core. Long-Evans rats were housed in group (GH; 4/cage) or SI (1/cage) conditions from weaning into early adulthood [postnatal day (PD) 28-77]. After this initial housing period, rats were assessed on the elevated plus-maze for an anxiety-like phenotype, and then slice voltammetry experiments were performed. To study the enduring effects of SI rearing on anxiety-like behavior and dopamine terminal function, another cohort of similarly reared rats was isolated for an additional 4 months (until PD 174) and then tested. Our findings demonstrate that SI rearing results in lasting increases in anxiety-like behavior, dopamine release and dopamine transporter activity, but not D2 activity. Interestingly, GH-reared rats that were isolated as adults did not develop the anxiety-like behavior or dopamine changes seen in SI-reared rats. Together, our data suggest that early life stress results in an anxiety-like phenotype, with lasting increases in dopamine terminal function. © 2013 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Gregory J Pec
Full Text Available The current unprecedented outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta forests of western Canada has resulted in a landscape consisting of a mosaic of forest stands at different stages of mortality. Within forest stands, understory communities are the reservoir of the majority of plant species diversity and influence the composition of future forests in response to disturbance. Although changes to stand composition following beetle outbreaks are well documented, information on immediate responses of forest understory plant communities is limited. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of D. ponderosae-induced tree mortality on initial changes in diversity and productivity of understory plant communities. We established a total of 110 1-m2 plots across eleven mature lodgepole pine forests to measure changes in understory diversity and productivity as a function of tree mortality and below ground resource availability across multiple years. Overall, understory community diversity and productivity increased across the gradient of increased tree mortality. Richness of herbaceous perennials increased with tree mortality as well as soil moisture and nutrient levels. In contrast, the diversity of woody perennials did not change across the gradient of tree mortality. Understory vegetation, namely herbaceous perennials, showed an immediate response to improved growing conditions caused by increases in tree mortality. How this increased pulse in understory richness and productivity affects future forest trajectories in a novel system is unknown.
Pec, Gregory J; Karst, Justine; Sywenky, Alexandra N; Cigan, Paul W; Erbilgin, Nadir; Simard, Suzanne W; Cahill, James F
The current unprecedented outbreak of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests of western Canada has resulted in a landscape consisting of a mosaic of forest stands at different stages of mortality. Within forest stands, understory communities are the reservoir of the majority of plant species diversity and influence the composition of future forests in response to disturbance. Although changes to stand composition following beetle outbreaks are well documented, information on immediate responses of forest understory plant communities is limited. The objective of this study was to examine the effects of D. ponderosae-induced tree mortality on initial changes in diversity and productivity of understory plant communities. We established a total of 110 1-m2 plots across eleven mature lodgepole pine forests to measure changes in understory diversity and productivity as a function of tree mortality and below ground resource availability across multiple years. Overall, understory community diversity and productivity increased across the gradient of increased tree mortality. Richness of herbaceous perennials increased with tree mortality as well as soil moisture and nutrient levels. In contrast, the diversity of woody perennials did not change across the gradient of tree mortality. Understory vegetation, namely herbaceous perennials, showed an immediate response to improved growing conditions caused by increases in tree mortality. How this increased pulse in understory richness and productivity affects future forest trajectories in a novel system is unknown.
Marco Ligi; Enrico Bonatti; Marco Cuffaro; Daniele Brunelli
The seawater Mg/Ca ratio increased significantly from ~ 80?Ma to present, as suggested by studies of carbonate veins in oceanic basalts and of fluid inclusions in halite. We show here that reactions of mantle-derived peridotites with seawater along slow spreading mid-ocean ridges contributed to the post-Cretaceous Mg/Ca increase. These reactions can release to modern seawater up to 20% of the yearly Mg river input. However, no significant peridotite-seawater interaction and Mg-release to the ...
Geertsen, Svend Sparre; Kirk, Henrik; Lorentzen, Jakob
analysis of the ankle joint during treadmill walking was obtained by 3-D motion analysis. RESULTS: Passive stiffness was significantly increased in adults with CP compared to controls. Passive stiffness and RFDdf were correlated to reduced toe lift. RFDpf provided the best correlation to push-off velocity...
In a previous study we observed that if tobacco cell suspensions were inoculated with certain bacterial strains, several hours later the redox potential of the suspensions would increase (oxidative), as much as 100 mV, and in some cases last more than an hour. To discover possible contributors to t...
Skytte, K.; Birk Mortensen, J.
Improving the ability of energy demand to respond to wholesale prices during critical periods of the spot market can reduce the total costs of reliably meeting demand, and the level and volatility of the prices. This fact has lead to a growing interest in the short-run demand response. There has especially been a growing interest in the electricity market where peak-load periods with high spot prices and occasional local blackouts have recently been seen. Market concentration at the supply side can result in even higher peak-load prices. Demand response by shifting demand from peak to base-load periods can counteract the market power in the peak-load. However, demand response has so far been modest since the current short-term price elasticity seems to be small. This is also the case for related markets, for example, green certificates where the demand is determined as a percentage of the power demand, or for heat and natural gas markets. This raises a number of interesting research issues: 1) Demand response in different energy markets, 2) Estimation of price elasticity and flexibility, 3) Stimulation of demand response, 4) Regulation, policy and modelling aspects, 5) Demand response and market power at the supply side, 6) Energy security of supply, 7) Demand response in forward, spot, ancillary service, balance and capacity markets, 8) Demand response in deviated markets, e.g., emission, futures, and green certificate markets, 9) Value of increased demand response, 10) Flexible households. (BA)
Md Mahmudul Haque; Prasanna Egodawatta; Ataur Rahman; Ashantha Goonetilleke
Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The resul...
Childs, Tristan; Simms, Ian; Alexander, Sarah; Eastick, Kirstine; Hughes, Gwenda; Field, Nigel
United Kingdom (UK) national data show a sharp increase in diagnoses of lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) since 2012. Most cases are in men who have sex with men (MSM) living in London, with high rates of co-infection with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. In light of these data, and the recent finding that one quarter of LGV infections may be asymptomatic, clinicians should be vigilant in testing for LGV, including in asymptomatic HIV-positive MSM.
Ligi, Marco; Bonatti, Enrico; Cuffaro, Marco; Brunelli, Daniele
The seawater Mg/Ca ratio increased significantly from ~ 80 Ma to present, as suggested by studies of carbonate veins in oceanic basalts and of fluid inclusions in halite. We show here that reactions of mantle-derived peridotites with seawater along slow spreading mid-ocean ridges contributed to the post-Cretaceous Mg/Ca increase. These reactions can release to modern seawater up to 20% of the yearly Mg river input. However, no significant peridotite-seawater interaction and Mg-release to the ocean occur in fast spreading, East Pacific Rise-type ridges. The Mesozoic Pangean superocean implies a hot fast spreading ridge system. This prevented peridotite-seawater interaction and Mg release to the Mesozoic ocean, but favored hydrothermal Mg capture and Ca release by the basaltic crust, resulting in a low seawater Mg/Ca ratio. Continent dispersal and development of slow spreading ridges allowed Mg release to the ocean by peridotite-seawater reactions, contributing to the increase of the Mg/Ca ratio of post-Mesozoic seawater. PMID:24067442
The Sizewell Inquiry was about whether the next power stations to be built in the UK should be nuclear or coal and, if nuclear, PWRs or AGRs. During the period of the Inquiry forecasts of demand for electricity were low. Now, however, it seems that the forecast demand is much increased. This uncertainty in demand and the wide regional variations are examined in some detail. Facts and figures on electricity sales (area by area) are presented. Also the minutes of supply lost per consumer per year. These show that security of supply is also a problem. It is also shown that the way electricity is used has changed. Whilst electricity generation has been changing to large-scale, centralised power stations the demand patterns may make smaller scale, quickly-constructed units more sensible. The questions considered at the Sizewell Inquiry may, indeed, no longer be the right ones. (UK)
Birch-Johansen, Fatima; Jensen, Allan; Mortensen, Lone
Nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common cancer among Caucasian populations worldwide, and incidence rates are increasing. However, NMSC data are not routinely collected by cancer registries, but Denmark has extensive registration of NMSC in two nationwide population-based registries. We...... assessed incidence trends of NMSC in Denmark from 1978 to 2007. Data for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were obtained from the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish Registry of Pathology. For both genders, age-specific incidence rates and overall incidence rates, age...
Kumei, Yasuhiro; Whitson, Peggy A.; Cintron, Nitza M.; Sato, Atsushige
The IP3 level in HeLa cells has been elevated through the application in hypergravity in a time-dependent manner. The data obtained for the hydrolytic products of PIP2, IP3, and DG are noted to modulate c-myc gene expression. It is also established that the cAMP accumulation by the IBMX in hypergravity-exposed cells was suppressed relative to the control. In light of IP3 increase and cAMP decrease results, a single GTP-binding protein may play a role in the hypergravity signal transduction of HeLa cells by stimulating PLC while inhibiting adenylate cyclase.
Full Text Available [b]Introduction.[/b] The dynamic rise of alcohol consumption in adolescents is a matter of serious concern, requiring frequently updated monitoring. By such means, it is possible to optimise preventative measures for dealing with this problem. [b]Objective[/b]. To estimate the magnitude/amount and frequency of alcohol consumed by middle and high school pupils in Poland, including the circumstances when alcohol was first drunk. [b]Materials and Methods[/b]. A randomised survey was performed throughout Poland on middle school (junior high school pupils, (n=9360 in 2009, followed by both middle and high school pupils in 2011 (n=7971. The questionnaire was devised by the Polish Chief Sanitary Inspectorate (GIS. [b]Results[/b]. A strikingly sharp increase in alcohol consumption (29% was observed in subjects between 2009 – 2011. In the latter year, 1 month prior to survey, respectively, 50% and 71% of middle school and high school pupils drank alcohol, and correspondingly, 36% and 63% of these pupils ever became intoxicated/drunk. [b]Conclusions[/b]. 1 Adolescent alcohol consumption increases with age and is highest in girls. Monitoring as well as in-depth analysis thus becomes necessary. 2 Systematic monitoring and analysis of changing healthy lifestyle behaviour should be used for taking the necessary corrective action. This should happen concurrently and consist of planned health education programmes, including health promotion.
Packed columns of canister packing material containing 25% bentonite and 75% quartz or basalt sand, were exposed to water vapor at temperatures up t 260 0 C. The permeabilities of the columns were subsequently measured after complete saturation with liquid water in a pressurized system. Exposure to water vapor caused irreversible increases in permeability by factors of up to 10 5 . After saturation with liquid water, the permeability was nearly independent of temperature. The increases in permeability were due to a large decrease in the ability of the bentonite to swell in water. Calculations suggest that swelling of bentonite altered at 250 0 C was not sufficient to fill the pore spaces. If the pore spaces are filled, the mixture will form an effective barrier against flow, diffusion, and transport of colloids. The results suggest that if bentonite-based canister packing material is exposed even briefly to water vapor at high temperatures in a high-level nuclear waste repository, its performance will be seriously impaired. The problem is less severe if the proportion of bentonite is high and the material is highly compacted. Previous results show significant degradation of bentonite by water vapor at temperatures as low as 150 0 C. This suggests that in some repositories, backfill in tunnels and drifts may also be affected. 9 references, 5 figures, 1 table
Fan, Ying; Xia, Yan
China has been experiencing industrialization and urbanization since reform and opening of its economy in 1978. Energy consumption in the country has featured issues such as a coal-dominated energy mix, low energy efficiency and high emissions. Thus, it is of great importance to explore the factors driving the increase in energy consumption in the past two decades and estimate the potential for decreasing energy demands in the future. In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to identify how these factors impact changes in energy intensity. A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in a BAU scenario and an alternative scenario. The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. Energy demand in China will continue to increase at a rapid rate if the economy develops as in the past decades, and is projected to reach 4.7 billion tce in 2020. However, the huge potential for a decrease cannot be neglected, since growth could be better by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements. The total energy demand could be less than 4.0 billion tce in 2020. -- Highlights: ► In this paper a hybrid energy input–output model is used to decompose driving factors to China’s energy intensity change. ► A modified RAS approach is applied to project energy requirements in China. ► The results show that energy input mix, industry structure and technology improvements have major influences on energy demand. ► Energy demand in China will reach 4.7 billion ton in 2020 if the economy develops as in the past decades. ► There is a huge potential for a decrease of energy demand by adjusting the energy mix and industrial structure and enhancing technology improvements.
Jung, Yong-Gyun; Kim, Hyejin; Lee, Sangyeop; Kim, Suyeoun; Jo, EunJi; Kim, Eun-Geun; Choi, Jungil; Kim, Hyun Jung; Yoo, Jungheon; Lee, Hye-Jeong; Kim, Haeun; Jung, Hyunju; Ryoo, Sungweon; Kwon, Sunghoon
The Disc Agarose Channel (DAC) system utilizes microfluidics and imaging technologies and is fully automated and capable of tracking single cell growth to produce Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) drug susceptibility testing (DST) results within 3~7 days. In particular, this system can be easily used to perform DSTs without the fastidious preparation of the inoculum of MTB cells. Inoculum effect is one of the major problems that causes DST errors. The DAC system was not influenced by the inoculum effect and produced reliable DST results. In this system, the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the first-line drugs were consistent regardless of inoculum sizes ranging from ~10 3 to ~10 8 CFU/mL. The consistent MIC results enabled us to determine the critical concentrations for 12 anti-tuberculosis drugs. Based on the determined critical concentrations, further DSTs were performed with 254 MTB clinical isolates without measuring an inoculum size. There were high agreement rates (96.3%) between the DAC system and the absolute concentration method using Löwenstein-Jensen medium. According to these results, the DAC system is the first DST system that is not affected by the inoculum effect. It can thus increase reliability and convenience for DST of MTB. We expect that this system will be a potential substitute for conventional DST systems.
Talla, Venkat; Suh, Alexander; Kalsoom, Faheema; Dinca, Vlad; Vila, Roger; Friberg, Magne; Wiklund, Christer; Backström, Niclas
Characterizing and quantifying genome size variation among organisms and understanding if genome size evolves as a consequence of adaptive or stochastic processes have been long-standing goals in evolutionary biology. Here, we investigate genome size variation and association with transposable elements (TEs) across lepidopteran lineages using a novel genome assembly of the common wood-white (Leptidea sinapis) and population re-sequencing data from both L. sinapis and the closely related L. reali and L. juvernica together with 12 previously available lepidopteran genome assemblies. A phylogenetic analysis confirms established relationships among species, but identifies previously unknown intraspecific structure within Leptidea lineages. The genome assembly of L. sinapis is one of the largest of any lepidopteran taxon so far (643 Mb) and genome size is correlated with abundance of TEs, both in Lepidoptera in general and within Leptidea where L. juvernica from Kazakhstan has considerably larger genome size than any other Leptidea population. Specific TE subclasses have been active in different Lepidoptera lineages with a pronounced expansion of predominantly LINEs, DNA elements, and unclassified TEs in the Leptidea lineage after the split from other Pieridae. The rate of genome expansion in Leptidea in general has been in the range of four Mb/Million year (My), with an increase in a particular L. juvernica population to 72 Mb/My. The considerable differences in accumulation rates of specific TE classes in different lineages indicate that TE activity plays a major role in genome size evolution in butterflies and moths. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.
Hoffmann, L; Schipper, L; Meyers, S; Sathaye, J; Hara, Y
This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.
According to the last International Energy Agency report about the 'Worldwide energetic perspectives', about 24 to 27 millions of petroleum barrels per day are required for the 15 following years to satisfy the whole world demand. Two scenarios are described. In the 'Capacity constraints' scenario, the energy demand is moderated by the prices inflation that reaches 28 $ per barrel of petroleum in 2005. The 'Energy savings' scenario is based on improvements in the energetic efficiency together with more efficient energy savings and anticipates a 34 to 45% increase of the worldwide primary energy consumption in 2010 with respect to 1992. The whole world primary energy demand should increase with a 1.7 to 2.1% annual rate to reach 10500 to 11500 million of tons of petroleum equivalents in 2010. At this time fossil fuels will still represent about 90% of the total primary energy demand. Details are given separately for petroleum and natural gas. Other points, such as electricity production, CO 2 emission, road transports and energetic perspectives of different countries are briefly described. (J.S.). 8 tabs
Adams, Andrea J; Pessier, Allan P; Briggs, Cheryl J
As extinctions continue across the globe, conservation biologists are turning to species reintroduction programs as one optimistic tool for addressing the biodiversity crisis. For repatriation to become a viable strategy, fundamental prerequisites include determining the causes of declines and assessing whether the causes persist in the environment. Invasive species-especially pathogens-are an increasingly significant factor contributing to biodiversity loss. We hypothesized that Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the causative agent of the deadly amphibian disease chytridiomycosis, was important in the rapid (herpetological experts, analysis of archived field notes and museum specimen collections, and field sampling of the extant amphibian assemblage to examine (1) historical relative abundance of R. boylii ; (2) potential causes of R. boylii declines; and (3) historical and contemporary prevalence of Bd. We found that R. boylii were relatively abundant prior to their rapid extirpation, and an increase in Bd prevalence coincided with R. boylii declines during a time of rapid change in the region, wherein backcountry recreation, urban development, and the amphibian pet trade were all on the rise. In addition, extreme flooding during the winter of 1969 coincided with localized extirpations in R. boylii populations observed by interview respondents. We conclude that Bd likely played an important role in the rapid extirpation of R. boylii from southern California and that multiple natural and anthropogenic factors may have worked in concert to make this possible in a relatively short period of time. This study emphasizes the importance of recognizing historical ecological contexts in making future management and reintroduction decisions.
Mosier, A.; Kroeze, C.
In most soils, biogenic formation of N2O is enhanced by an increase in available mineral N through increased nitrification and denitrification. N-fertilization, therefore, directly results in additional N2O formation. In addition, these inputs may lead to indirect formation of N2O after N leaching
Vanlint, Dietrich; Rutten, Nele; Govers, Sander K; Michiels, Chris W; Aertsen, Abram
Exposure to high hydrostatic pressure (HHP) is increasingly being used in food preservation as a non-thermal pasteurization process, and its further implementation necessitates a more thorough understanding of bacterial resistance development and intraspecies variability with regard to inactivation by HHP. In this report, we discovered that exposure to high hydrostatic pressure stress can rapidly select for strongly increased RpoS activity in a hypersensitive Escherichia coli O157:H7 strain (ATCC 43888), leading to a simultaneous increase in HHP and heat resistance. Moreover, the level of RpoS activity correlated well with the original hypersensitivity and the extent of acquired HHP resistance, and extremely HHP-resistant mutants of ATCC 43888 clearly incurred a number of additional RpoS-dependent phenotypes. These findings suggest that implementation of novel processing techniques in the food production chain can readily affect the physiology of food-borne pathogens. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Nel, Willem P.; Cooper, Christopher J.
China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand. This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil. This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrere, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind
Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)
Following the military intervention in Iraq, it is taking longer than expected for Iraqi exports to make a comeback on the market. Demand is sustained by economic growth in China and in the United States. OPEC is modulating production to prevent inventory build-up. Prices have stayed high despite increased production by non-OPEC countries, especially Russia. (author)
Davis, Joe C.
Maintains that teachers and textbook graphics follow the same basic pattern in illustrating changes in demand curves when product prices increase. Asserts that the use of computer graphics will enable teachers to be more precise in their graphic presentation of price elasticity. (CFR)
Holton, W C
Trichloroethylene (TCE) is a common industrial solvent that poses a particular pollution problem in groundwater; while TCE disappears from surface water within a few weeks, groundwater contamination can take months or years to degrade. Humans have not conclusively been shown to develop cancer in response to TCE exposure, but rats and mice exposed to TCE have an increased incidence of liver and lung cancers.
Morgen, Michael; Bloom, Corey; Beyerinck, Ron; Bello, Akintunde; Song, Wei; Wilkinson, Karen; Steenwyk, Rick; Shamblin, Sheri
To demonstrate drug/polymer nanoparticles can increase the rate and extent of oral absorption of a low-solubility, high-permeability drug. Amorphous drug/polymer nanoparticles containing celecoxib were prepared using ethyl cellulose and either sodium caseinate or bile salt. Nanoparticles were characterized using dynamic light scattering, transmission and scanning electron microscopy, and differential scanning calorimetry. Drug release and resuspension studies were performed using high-performance liquid chromatography. Pharmacokinetic studies were performed in dogs and humans. A physical model is presented describing the nanoparticle state of matter and release performance. Nanoparticles dosed orally in aqueous suspensions provided higher systemic exposure and faster attainment of peak plasma concentrations than commercial capsules, with median time to maximum drug concentration (Tmax) of 0.75 h in humans for nanoparticles vs. 3 h for commercial capsules. Nanoparticles released celecoxib rapidly and provided higher dissolved-drug concentrations than micronized crystalline drug. Nanoparticle suspensions are stable for several days and can be spray-dried to form dry powders that resuspend in water. Drug/polymer nanoparticles are well suited for providing rapid oral absorption and increased bioavailability of BCS Class II drugs.
An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)
Urban sprawl continues since the last century, leading to a rapid increase in automobile ownership and vehicle travel demand, while resulting in more traffic congestion and automobile emissions. Land use, serving as a source of travel demand, can significantly impact travel behav...
Timothy J. Richards; Luis Padilla
Many believe that fast food promotion is a significant cause of the obesity epidemic in North America. Industry members argue that promotion only reallocates brand shares and does not increase overall demand. We study the effect of fast food promotion on market share and total demand by estimating a discrete / continuous model of fast food restaurant choice and food expenditure that explicitly accounts for both spatial and temporal determinants of demand. Estimates are obtained using a unique...
Takahashi, Takuri; Arima, Yuzo; Yamagishi, Takuya; Nishiki, Shingo; Kanai, Mizue; Ishikane, Masahiro; Matsui, Tamano; Sunagawa, Tomimasa; Ohnishi, Makoto; Oishi, Kazunori
Background In Japan, syphilis reports have recently increased rapidly. However, unlike other developed countries where men who have sex with men (MSM) were associated with the rise, the increase in Japan has been attributed more to men who have sex with women (MSW) and women who have sex with men (WSM). We report on this increase based on surveillance data. Methods Syphilis is a notifiable disease requiring all laboratory-confirmed cases to be reported; stage and sex of the sex partner(s) suspected as the infection source are also reported. Focusing on primary and secondary (P&S) cases, we describe the temporal, demographic, and geographic distributions of reported cases in 2012 through 2016. Results A total of 7040 (64.0%) of 10,997 cases were P&S; the annual rate of increase was greatest for P&S and the proportion of P&S increased over time. Among P&S cases (1609 MSM, 2768 MSW, and 1323 WSM), MSW and WSM each surpassed MSM cases in 2016. Men were older with a wider age distribution (median, 37 years; interquartile range, 28–46 years) relative to women (median, 26 years; interquartile range, 21–34 years). Among women, 20- to 24-year-olds consistently had the highest reporting rate, reaching 9.0 per 100,000 in 2016. Congenital syphilis reports increased from 0.4 in 2012 to 1.4 per 100,000 live births in 2016. Although Tokyo prefecture had the highest reporting rate (3.98 per 100,000 person-years), the proportionate contribution from Tokyo decreased in 2016. Conclusions Reports on P&S syphilis increased yearly among MSW and WSM. Young women seem to be at particular risk, and with increased reports of congenital syphilis, syphilis prevention and control is currently a public health priority in Japan. PMID:29420439
Yadav, Ravi; Beig, G.; Jaaffrey, S. N. A.
The city of Udaipur (24.58°N, 73.68°E) in the province of Rajasthan in the Western part of India has a special significance as it is surrounded by the Arawali mountain ranges on one side and desert on the other side. It is located around the foothills of the rocky Arawali range. It is on the world map due to its tourist attraction. The changing pattern in particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) during the past three years indicates an alarming increasing trend, posing a threat to its environment & tourism sector which regulates its economy to a period during the monsoon and distribution of particulate matter is found to be governed by the meteorology and changes the trend. The level of PM10, which was already above the threshold level in 2010, further increased in 2012. The trend is found to be rapid during the months of October & November where an increase by 37% is observed in 3 years. The level of PM2.5, which is the most hazardous for respiratory system diseases, has now started to cross the ambient air quality standards set by the World Health Organization. The impact is significant during winter when the inversion layer is down due to colder temperature and foreign tourists are a peak giving rise an increased morbidity rate. The linkages of local weather with an anthropogenically induced trend and long range transport of pollutants have been outlined.
China's growth in energy demand and production declined in 1976, partly because of difficulty of sustaining a rapid 5.4 percent growth and partly because of the disruptions caused by a major earthquake and the deaths of Mao Tse-Tung and Chou En-Lai. The earthquake, which damaged all mines, the power station, refineries, and transportation lines in the Tangshan area, has had serious economic consequences. The failure to back up a growing coal industry with adequate investments and mechanization was recognized in 1975 and prompted a 10-year modernization program. Progress has been made with new mine shafts, pulverizing equipment, and the use of small mines for local industries. Oil and gas production increased after the discovery of new fields and the use of new technology in the hydrocarbon industries. Ports and terminal facilities to handle large tankers will increase China's oil export traffic. Electricity generation increased with new power facilities, although China's dependence on human and animal power is still a major factor. Changes in energy consumption patterns are developing, but industry still represents 50 percent and transportation less than 10 percent. (DCK)
Rouhanifard, A.; Hosseini Toudeshki, S.
Perhaps the biggest challenge in launching atomic energy projects will be common public perception that it is a dangerous energy source. In fact, there have only ever been two nuclear accidents - one was Chernobyl (Ukraine) and the other was Three Mile Island (US) where there was an encased explosion and no one was hurt. Undoubtedly, and for good reason, it has had a lasting negative effect on public opinion over the safety of nuclear energy. However, the technology behind nuclear energy has improved in recent years. People have to be aware that new nuclear is not old nuclear. Nuclear is a safe technology and plants are much safer now. In terms of air pollution, developing a nuclear power program can actually have a positive effect on the environment. So today, two thirds of the world's population live in an environment where nuclear power plants are an essential part of energy production and industrial infrastructure. World countries are moving steadily forward with plans for much expanded role of nuclear energy. Efficiency of nuclear generation has increased dramatically over thc last decades. Lessons learned from accidents, advances in nuclear technology and implementation of projects for design of future safer and more economical nuclear reactors, will lead to grow of installed global nuclear capacity from about 369 G We net at the beginning of 2005 to about 553 G We net by 2025. In this paper, we present the results of a study on international efforts to improve safety of nuclear power plants. We focus on the current state of technology and the technology which will be employed for future built reactors to strengthen the role of nuclear power plants for supply of electrical energy in next decades. Finally, based on our studies on past, present and future of the world nuclear technology, we mention the issues to be taken into consideration while preparing the program for development of nuclear power plants in Iran
Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)
Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.
Otto, K.; Gist, R.; Whitley, C.; Haun, R.
The international LPG industry has expanded rapidly during the 1990s and undergone significant changes. LPG consumption has expanded at nearly twice the rate of world petroleum demand. In particular, LPG use in residential and commercial markets has more than doubled in many developing countries. Markets for LPG and other petroleum products have been opened in many countries, accelerating demand growth and creating investment opportunities in all downstream segments. This has led to an overall strengthening of global LPG pricing and the development of many new export gas-processing projects. The paper discusses world LPG demand in residential and commercial markets and in petrochemicals, world LPG supply, regional increases, international trade, the US situation in natural gas, NGL supply, and NGL demand
Nuno Carlos LEITÃO
Full Text Available This study considers the relationship between immigration and Portuguese tourism demand for the period 1995-2008, using a dynamic panel data approach. The findings indicate that Portuguese tourism increased significantly during the period in accordance with the values expected for a developed country. The regression results show that income, shock of immigration, population, and geographical distance between Portugal and countries of origin are the main determinants of Portuguese tourism.
As a result of rapidly increasing demand, major oil companies are eyeing Asian oil and gas markets more closely than ever. Higher earnings can be expected there than in the US or Europe, where product markets--especially light products--are expected to tighten long-term. Of the nations with growing requirements for refined products, China and India offer greater opportunity for foreign investors to enter downstream projects. Also offering excellent business prospects are Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The paper discusses oil demand, products, refining capacity, and capacity additions in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China
Full Text Available Cellular edema (cell swelling is a principal component of numerous brain disorders including ischemia, cortical spreading depression, hyponatremia, and epilepsy. Cellular edema increases seizure-like activity in vitro and in vivo, largely through nonsynaptic mechanisms attributable to reduction of the extracellular space. However, the types of excitability changes occurring in individual neurons during the acute phase of cell volume increase remain unclear. Using whole-cell patch clamp techniques, we report that one of the first effects of osmotic edema on excitability of CA1 pyramidal cells is the generation of slow inward currents (SICs, which initiate after approximately 1 min. Frequency of SICs increased as osmolarity decreased in a dose-dependent manner. Imaging of real-time volume changes in astrocytes revealed that neuronal SICs occurred while astrocytes were still in the process of swelling. SICs evoked by cell swelling were mainly nonsynaptic in origin and NMDA receptor-dependent. To better understand the relationship between SICs and changes in neuronal excitability, recordings were performed in increasingly physiological conditions. In the absence of any added pharmacological reagents or imposed voltage clamp, osmotic edema induced excitatory postsynaptic potentials and burst firing over the same timecourse as SICs. Like SICs, action potentials were blocked by NMDAR antagonists. Effects were more pronounced in adult (8–20 weeks old compared with juvenile (P15–P21 mice. Together, our results indicate that cell swelling triggered by reduced osmolarity rapidly increases neuronal excitability through activation of NMDA receptors. Our findings have important implications for understanding nonsynaptic mechanisms of epilepsy in relation to cell swelling and reduction of the extracellular space.
Straatsma, M.W.; Vermeulen, P.; Kuijper, Marijn; Bonte, Matthijs; Niele, Frank; Bierkens, M.F.P.
Freshwater shortage already affects large parts of the world, and is expected to increase rapidly over the coming decades as a result of increased water demands and the impacts of climate change. Global-scale water risk or stress maps are available online, but these lack quantitative information on
Lee, Tzong-Hsi; Lin, Chien-Chu; Chung, Chen-Shuan; Lin, Cheng-Kuan; Liang, Cheng-Chao; Tsai, Kuang-Chau
Previous studies demonstrated that the sensitivity of rapid urease test (RUT) for diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection decreased during peptic ulcer bleeding. We designed this study and tried to find a better method to improve the detection rate of H. pylori infection at the same session of endoscopic diagnosis of peptic ulcer bleeding. We prospectively enrolled 116 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding. These patients received intravenous proton pump inhibitor and then received upper gastrointestinal endoscopy within 24 h after arrival. We took one piece of biopsy from gastric antrum (Group 1), four pieces from gastric antrum (Group 2), and one piece from the gastric body (Group 3) for three separate RUTs, respectively. (13)C-urease breath test was used as gold standard for diagnosis of H. pylori infection. There were 74 patients (64 %) with positive (13)C-urease breath test. Among these 74 patients, 45 patients had positive RUT (sensitivity: 61 %) in Group 1; 55 patients had positive RUT (sensitivity: 74 %) in Group 2; 54 patients had positive RUT (sensitivity: 73 %) in Group 3. There were significant differences between Group 1 and Group 2 (p = 0.02) and between Group 1 and Group 3 (p = 0.022). The sensitivity of RUT was 61 % during peptic ulcer bleeding. The sensitivity of RUT can be increased significantly by increased biopsy number from gastric antrum or biopsy from gastric body.
Douglas, Margaret R; Tooker, John F
Neonicotinoids are the most widely used class of insecticides worldwide, but patterns of their use in the U.S. are poorly documented, constraining attempts to understand their role in pest management and potential nontarget effects. We synthesized publicly available data to estimate and interpret trends in neonicotinoid use since their introduction in 1994, with a special focus on seed treatments, a major use not captured by the national pesticide-use survey. Neonicotinoid use increased rapidly between 2003 and 2011, as seed-applied products were introduced in field crops, marking an unprecedented shift toward large-scale, preemptive insecticide use: 34-44% of soybeans and 79-100% of maize hectares were treated in 2011. This finding contradicts recent analyses, which concluded that insecticides are used today on fewer maize hectares than a decade or two ago. If current trends continue, neonicotinoid use will increase further through application to more hectares of soybean and other crop species and escalation of per-seed rates. Alternatively, our results, and other recent analyses, suggest that carefully targeted efforts could considerably reduce neonicotinoid use in field crops without yield declines or economic harm to farmers, reducing the potential for pest resistance, nontarget pest outbreaks, environmental contamination, and harm to wildlife, including pollinator species.
Sulfur markets look better going into 1975 than they have for several years, as North American demand growth is being filled largely by elemental sulfur producers and overseas. Demand is rising as fast as the capacity of Canadian transportation and handling facilities. It will take a long time to make much of a dent in the total Alberta stockpile of 14 million long tons at the end of 1974, with involuntary production from sour gas plants exceeding sales volume since 1972. However, there is some encouragement in the approaching peakout of production combined with a substantial increase in price since the low point of the cycle at the beginning of 1973, and a predicted rise of at least 20% in domestic (North American) sales this year over 1974.
Zhang, Wangang; Naveena, B Maheswarappa; Jo, Cheorun; Sakata, Ryoichi; Zhou, Guanghong; Banerjee, Rituparna; Nishiumi, Tadayuki
A rapid increase in the economy, population, industrialization, and urbanization of Asian countries has driven the fast development of their meat industries over recent decades. This consistent increase in meat production and consumption in Asia has been the major cause for the development of the global meat industry. Meat production methods and consumption are very diverse across different regions and countries in Asia, and thus, it is impossible to cover the technological demands of all Asian countries in this review. Here, we have mainly highlighted the differences in meat production methods and consumption in Asia during recent decades and the meat technology demands of three east Asian countries, namely China, Korea, and Japan, and one south Asian country, India. A brief introduction of the meat industry, in particular the production and consumption trend in these countries, is provided in this article. The technology demands for fresh and processed meat products are then reviewed. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Oginsky, Max F; Goforth, Paulette B; Nobile, Cameron W; Lopez-Santiago, Luis F; Ferrario, Carrie R
Urges to eat are influenced by stimuli in the environment that are associated with food (food cues). Obese people are more sensitive to food cues, reporting stronger craving and consuming larger portions after food cue exposure. The nucleus accumbens (NAc) mediates cue-triggered motivational responses, and activations in the NAc triggered by food cues are stronger in people who are susceptible to obesity. This has led to the idea that alterations in NAc function similar to those underlying drug addiction may contribute to obesity, particularly in obesity-susceptible individuals. Motivational responses are mediated in part by NAc AMPA receptor (AMPAR) transmission, and recent work shows that cue-triggered motivation is enhanced in obesity-susceptible rats after 'junk-food' diet consumption. Therefore, here we determined whether NAc AMPAR expression and function is increased by 'junk-food' diet consumption in obesity-susceptible vs -resistant populations using both outbred and selectively bred models of susceptibility. In addition, cocaine-induced locomotor activity was used as a general 'read out' of mesolimbic function after 'junk-food' consumption. We found a sensitized locomotor response to cocaine in rats that gained weight on a 'junk-food' diet, consistent with greater responsivity of mesolimbic circuits in obesity-susceptible groups. In addition, eating 'junk-food' increased NAc calcium-permeable-AMPAR (CP-AMPAR) function only in obesity-susceptible rats. This increase occurred rapidly, persisted for weeks after 'junk-food' consumption ceased, and preceded the development of obesity. These data are considered in light of enhanced cue-triggered motivation and striatal function in obesity-susceptible rats and the role of NAc CP-AMPARs in enhanced motivation and addiction.
Oginsky, Max F; Goforth, Paulette B; Nobile, Cameron W; Lopez-Santiago, Luis F; Ferrario, Carrie R
Urges to eat are influenced by stimuli in the environment that are associated with food (food cues). Obese people are more sensitive to food cues, reporting stronger craving and consuming larger portions after food cue exposure. The nucleus accumbens (NAc) mediates cue-triggered motivational responses, and activations in the NAc triggered by food cues are stronger in people who are susceptible to obesity. This has led to the idea that alterations in NAc function similar to those underlying drug addiction may contribute to obesity, particularly in obesity-susceptible individuals. Motivational responses are mediated in part by NAc AMPA receptor (AMPAR) transmission, and recent work shows that cue-triggered motivation is enhanced in obesity-susceptible rats after ‘junk-food' diet consumption. Therefore, here we determined whether NAc AMPAR expression and function is increased by ‘junk-food' diet consumption in obesity-susceptible vs -resistant populations using both outbred and selectively bred models of susceptibility. In addition, cocaine-induced locomotor activity was used as a general ‘read out' of mesolimbic function after ‘junk-food' consumption. We found a sensitized locomotor response to cocaine in rats that gained weight on a ‘junk-food' diet, consistent with greater responsivity of mesolimbic circuits in obesity-susceptible groups. In addition, eating ‘junk-food' increased NAc calcium-permeable-AMPAR (CP-AMPAR) function only in obesity-susceptible rats. This increase occurred rapidly, persisted for weeks after ‘junk-food' consumption ceased, and preceded the development of obesity. These data are considered in light of enhanced cue-triggered motivation and striatal function in obesity-susceptible rats and the role of NAc CP-AMPARs in enhanced motivation and addiction. PMID:27383008
Fuentes, Eduardo N; Kling, Peter; Einarsdottir, Ingibjörg Eir; Alvarez, Marco; Valdés, Juan Antonio; Molina, Alfredo; Björnsson, Björn Thrandur
In fish, recent studies have indicated an anorexigenic role of leptin and thus its possible involvement in regulation of energy balance and growth. In the present study, the effects of fasting and refeeding periods on plasma leptin levels were studied in the fine flounder, a flatfish with remarkably slow growth. To further assess the endocrine status of the fish during periods of catabolism and anabolism, plasma growth hormone (GH) levels were also analyzed. Under normal feeding condition, plasma leptin and GH levels remained stable and relatively high in comparison with other teleost species. For the three separate groups of fish, fasted for 2, 3, and 4 weeks, respectively, plasma leptin levels increase gradually, becoming significantly elevated after 3 weeks, and reaching highest levels after 4-week fasting. Plasma GH levels were significantly elevated after 2-week fasting. At the onset of refeeding, following a single meal, leptin levels decline rapidly to lower than initial levels within 2 h, irrespective of the length of fasting. Plasma GH also decline, the decrease being significant after 4, 24 and 2 h for the 2, 3 and 4-week fasted groups, respectively. This study shows that plasma leptin levels in the fine flounder are strongly linked to nutritional status and suggests that leptin secretion is regulated by fast-acting mechanisms. Elevated leptin levels in fasted fish may contribute to a passive survival strategy of species which experience natural food shortage periods by lowering appetite and limiting physical foraging activity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available GABA is the major inhibitory neurotransmitter in the mammalian central nervous system that has been strongly implicated in the regulation of sleep. GABA transporter subtype 1 (GAT1 constructs high affinity reuptake sites for GABA and regulates GABAergic transmission in the brain. However, the role of GAT1 in sleep-wake regulation remains elusive. In the current study, we characterized the spontaneous sleep-wake cycle and responses to sleep deprivation in GAT1 knock-out (KO mice. GAT1 KO mice exhibited dominant theta-activity and a remarkable reduction of EEG power in low frequencies across all vigilance stages. Under baseline conditions, spontaneous rapid eye movement (REM sleep of KO mice was elevated both during the light and dark periods, and non-REM (NREM sleep was reduced during the light period only. KO mice also showed more state transitions from NREM to REM sleep and from REM sleep to wakefulness, as well as more number of REM and NREM sleep bouts than WT mice. During the dark period, KO mice exhibited more REM sleep bouts only. Six hours of sleep deprivation induced rebound increases in NREM and REM sleep in both genotypes. However, slow wave activity, the intensity component of NREM sleep was briefly elevated in WT mice but remained completely unchanged in KO mice, compared with their respective baselines. These results indicate that GAT1 plays a critical role in the regulation of REM sleep and homeostasis of NREM sleep.
Estimates are given for ethane production, chiefly from the Gulf Coast area. Increase in interregional transfers are predicted. Comparisons from 1992 through 1995 are made. The author concludes the following: ethane will be supply limited over the decade of the 90's; values will be over competing feedstocks; minimum practical demands will be close to available supply; regional relationships will reflect pipeline tariffs; purity ethane/EP spreads may narrow with new Mt. Belvieu fractionation capacity; new domestic supplies will back out imports; and Ethane's share of ethylene production may drop over the period
Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Kamphuis, I.G.
In the context of liberalized energy market, increase in distributed generation, storage and demand response has expanded the price elasticity of demand, thus causing the addition of uncertainty to the supply-demand chain of power system. In order to cope with the challenges of demand uncertainty
Andrei V Derbenev
Full Text Available Glucocorticoids influence vagal parasympathetic output to the viscera via mechanisms that include modulation of neural circuitry in the dorsal vagal complex, a principal autonomic regulatory center. Glucocorticoids can modulate synaptic neurotransmitter release elsewhere in the brain by inducing release of retrograde signalling molecules. We tested the hypothesis that the glucocorticoid agonist dexamethasone (DEX modulates GABA release in the rat dorsal motor nucleus of the vagus (DMV. Whole-cell patch-clamp recordings revealed that DEX (1-10 µM rapidly (i.e. within three minutes increased the frequency of tetrodotoxin-resistant, miniature IPSCs (mIPSCs in 67% of DMV neurons recorded in acutely prepared slices. Glutamate-mediated mEPSCs were also enhanced by DEX (10 µM, and blockade of ionotropic glutamate receptors reduced the DEX effect on mIPSC frequency. Antagonists of type I or II corticosteroid receptors blocked the effect of DEX on mIPSCs. The effect was mimicked by application of the membrane-impermeant BSA-conjugated DEX, and intracellular blockade of G protein function with GDP βS in the recorded cell prevented the effect of DEX. The enhancement of GABA release was blocked by the TRPV1 antagonists, 5'-iodoresiniferatoxin or capsazepine, but was not altered by the cannabinoid type 1 receptor antagonist AM251. The DEX effect was prevented by blocking fatty acid amide hydrolysis or by inhibiting anandamide transport, implicating involvement of the endocannabinoid system in the response. These findings indicate that DEX induces an enhancement of GABA release in the DMV, which is mediated by activation of TRPV1 receptors on afferent terminals. The effect is likely induced by anandamide or other 'endovanilloid', suggesting activation of a local retrograde signal originating from DMV neurons to enhance synaptic inhibition locally in response to glucocorticoids.
Semaan, Sheila J; Nickells, Robert W
Many chemotherapeutic agents promote tumor cell death by activating the intrinsic pathway of apoptosis. Intrinsic apoptosis involves permeabilization of the mitochondrial outer membrane and the release of cytochrome c, a process that is controlled by proteins of the BCL2 gene family. Chemoresistance is often associated with abnormalities in concentrations of BCL2 family proteins. Although stoichiometirc interactions between anti-apoptotic and BH3-only BCL2 family proteins have been well documented as affecting cell death, the association between changes in BAX concentration and intrinsic apoptosis are poorly understood. Exogenous GFP-murine Bax fusion constructs were transfected into BAX-deficient HCT116 cells. To titrate the expression of the fusion protein, GFP-BAX was cloned into a tetracycline sensitive expression cassette and cotransfected with a plasmid expressing the rtTA transcription factor into HCT116 BAX-/- cells. Linear expression of the fusion gene was induced with doxycycline and monitored by quantitative PCR and immunoblotting. Cell death was assayed by DAPI staining cells after exposure to indomethacin, and scoring nuclei for condensed chromatin and fragmented nuclei. HCT116 BAX-/- cells were resistant to indomethacin, but susceptibility could be recovered in cells expressing a GFP-BAX fusion protein. Titration of GFP-BAX expression revealed that the concentration of BAX required to induce a saturating apoptosis response from baseline, was rapidly achieved. Increased levels of GFP-BAX were unable to stimulate higher levels of cell death. Examination of GFP-BAX distribution before and after indomethacin treatment indicated that BAX protein did not form aggregates when present at sub-lethal concentrations. Within the limitations of this experimental system, BAX-dependent apoptosis in HCT116 cells exhibits an all-or-none response depending on the level of BAX protein present. The lack of BAX aggregation at sub-saturation levels suggests that the
Semaan Sheila J
Full Text Available Abstract Background Many chemotherapeutic agents promote tumor cell death by activating the intrinsic pathway of apoptosis. Intrinsic apoptosis involves permeabilization of the mitochondrial outer membrane and the release of cytochrome c, a process that is controlled by proteins of the BCL2 gene family. Chemoresistance is often associated with abnormalities in concentrations of BCL2 family proteins. Although stoichiometirc interactions between anti-apoptotic and BH3-only BCL2 family proteins have been well documented as affecting cell death, the association between changes in BAX concentration and intrinsic apoptosis are poorly understood. Methods Exogenous GFP-murine Bax fusion constructs were transfected into BAX-deficient HCT116 cells. To titrate the expression of the fusion protein, GFP-BAX was cloned into a tetracycline sensitive expression cassette and cotransfected with a plasmid expressing the rtTA transcription factor into HCT116BAX-/- cells. Linear expression of the fusion gene was induced with doxycycline and monitored by quantitative PCR and immunoblotting. Cell death was assayed by DAPI staining cells after exposure to indomethacin, and scoring nuclei for condensed chromatin and fragmented nuclei. Results HCT116BAX-/- cells were resistant to indomethacin, but susceptibility could be recovered in cells expressing a GFP-BAX fusion protein. Titration of GFP-BAX expression revealed that the concentration of BAX required to induce a saturating apoptosis response from baseline, was rapidly achieved. Increased levels of GFP-BAX were unable to stimulate higher levels of cell death. Examination of GFP-BAX distribution before and after indomethacin treatment indicated that BAX protein did not form aggregates when present at sub-lethal concentrations. Conclusion Within the limitations of this experimental system, BAX-dependent apoptosis in HCT116 cells exhibits an all-or-none response depending on the level of BAX protein present. The lack of
Full Text Available Background/Aims: Heart failure induced by tachycardia, the most common arrhythmia, is frequently observed in clinical practice. This study was designed to investigate the underlying mechanisms. Methods: Rapid electrical stimulation (RES at a frequency of 3 Hz was applied on human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPSC-CMs for 7 days, with 8 h/day and 24 h/day set to represent short-term and long-term tachycardia, respectively. Age-matched hiPSC-CMs without electrical stimulation or with slow electrical stimulation (1 Hz were set as no electrical stimulation (NES control or low-frequency electrical stimulation (LES control. Following stimulation, JC-1 staining flow cytometry analysis was performed to examine mitochondrial conditions. Apoptosis in hiPSC-CMs was evaluated using Hoechst staining and Annexin V/propidium iodide (AV/PI staining flow cytometry analysis. Calcium transients and L-type calcium currents were recorded to evaluate calcium homeostasis. Western blotting and qPCR were performed to evaluate the protein and mRNA expression levels of apoptosis-related genes and calcium homeostasis-regulated genes. Results: Compared to the controls, hiPSC-CMs following RES presented mitochondrial dysfunction and an increased apoptotic percentage. Amplitudes of calcium transients and L-type calcium currents were significantly decreased in hiPSC-CMs with RES. Molecular analysis demonstrated upregulated expression of Caspase3 and increased Bax/Bcl-2 ratio. Genes related to calcium re-sequence were downregulated, while phosphorylated Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII was significantly upregulated following RES. There was no significant difference between the NES control and LES control groups in these aspects. Inhibition of CaMKII with 1 µM KN93 partly reversed these adverse effects of RES. Conclusion: RES on hiPSC-CMs disturbed calcium homeostasis, which led to mitochondrial stress, promoted cell apoptosis and
Löscher, W; Fassbender, C P; Gram, L; Gramer, M; Hörstermann, D; Zahner, B; Stefan, H
The novel antiepileptic drug vigabatrin (Sabril) acts by inhibiting degradation of the inhibitory neurotransmitter gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), increasing the GABA concentrations in the brain. Because the GABA degrading enzyme GABA aminotransferase (GABA-T) is also present in peripheral tissues, including blood platelets, measurement of plasma GABA levels might be a useful indication of the pharmacological response to vigabatrin during therapeutic monitoring. However, because of the very low concentrations of GABA in plasma, the few methods available for plasma GABA analysis are time-consuming, difficult to perform and/or not selective enough because of potential interference with other plasma constituents. In the present study, a rapid, selective and sensitive amino acid analysis HPLC method has been developed for plasma GABA determination with fluorescence detection, using o-phthaldialdehyde as a precolumn derivatizing agent. By employing a 3 microns particle size reversed-phase column and a multi-step gradient system of two solvents, the very low endogenous concentration of GABA in human plasma could be reproducibly quantitated without interference of other endogenous compounds. Incubation of human plasma samples with GABA degrading enzyme(s) resulted in an almost total loss of the GABA peak, thus demonstrating the specificity of the method for GABA analysis. In addition to GABA and other endogenous amino acids, the HPLC method could be used to quantitate plasma levels of vigabatrin. Thus, this improved HPLC amino acid assay might be used to examine whether concomitant monitoring of plasma GABA and vigabatrin is useful for clinical purposes. This was examined in 20 epileptic patients undergoing chronic treatment with vigabatrin. The average plasma GABA level of these 20 patients did not differ significantly from non-epileptic controls. However, when epileptic patients were subdivided according to their clinical response to vigabatrin, vigabatrin responders
Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Abrantes, Ana M; Metrik, Jane
Behavioral economic measurement of the relative value of tobacco (Cigarette Purchase Task; CPT) is used to examine individual differences in motivation for tobacco under certain contexts. Smokers with psychopathology, relative to those without, may demonstrate stronger demand for tobacco following a period of smoking deprivation, which could account for disparate rates of smoking and cessation among this subgroup. Participants (n=111) were community-recruited adult daily smokers who completed the CPT after a deprivation period of approximately 60min. Presence of psychopathology was assessed via clinical interview; 40.5% (n=45) of the sample met criteria for past-year psychological diagnosis. Specifically, 31.5% (n=35) had an emotional disorder (anxiety/depressive disorder), 17.1% (n=19) had a substance use disorder, and 19.1% of the sample had more than one disorder. Smokers with any psychopathology showed significantly higher intensity (demand at unrestricted cost; $0) and O max (peak expenditure for a drug) relative to smokers with no psychopathology. Intensity was significantly higher among smokers with an emotional disorder compared to those without. Smokers with a substance use disorder showed significantly higher intensity and O max , and lower elasticity, reflecting greater insensitivity to price increases. Having≥2 disorders was associated with higher intensity relative to having 1 or no disorders. Findings suggest that presence of psychopathology may be associated with greater and more persistent motivation to smoke. Future work is needed to explore the mechanism linking psychopathology to tobacco demand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — AFRC has previously investigated the use of Network Based Telemetry. We will be building on that research to enable On-Demand Telemetry. On-Demand Telemetry is a way...
Kessels, J.T.B.A.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Koot, M.W.T.; Jager, de A.G.
The electric power demand in road vehicles increases rapidly and to supply all electric loads efficiently, energy management (EM) turns out to be a necessity. In general, EM exploits the storage capacity of a buffer connected to the vehicle's power net, such that energy is stored or retrieved at
Bergougnoux, J.; Fouquet, D.
The different utilizations of electric energy are reviewed in the residential and tertiary sectors, in the industry. The competitive position of electricity in regard to other fuels has been strengthned by the sudden rise in the price of oil in 1973-1974 and 1979-1980. The evolution of electricity prices depended on the steps taken to adjust the electricity generation system. The substitution of electricity applications for hydro-carbons is an essential point of energy policy. The adjustment at all times, at least cost and most reliability, of the supply of electricity to the demand for it is a major problem in the design and operation of electric systems. National demand for power at a given moment is extremely diversified. Electricity consumption presents daily and seasonal variations, and variations according to the different sectors. Forecasting power requirements is for any decision on operation or investment relating to an electrical system. Load management is desirable (prices according to the customers, optional tariffs for ''peak-day withdrawal''). To conclude, prospects for increased electricity consumption are discussed [fr
Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important
The natural gas industry is currently enjoying healthy growth prospects. Not only is the demand for natural gas steadily growing; the outlook for increasing gas reserves is promising as well. The success of natural gas in the marketplace reflects, on one hand, continuous attention paid to public and customer requirements and, on the other hand, the ability of the gas industry to direct technological developments toward the increasing public demand for gas at competitive market prices supplied in a reliable, safe and environmentally friendly manner. In the past, the gas industry has been involved in the development of technologies for everything from gas production to the end user and from borehole to burner tip, and the author believes that the industry must continue or even increase its emphasis on technology in the future in order to capture new market opportunities. He explains this by looking at the supply side, the demand side and the structural side of the business
Analysis of food demand among rural households in Kwara State, North Central ... Nigerian Journal of Technological Research ... Contrary to the law of demand, this study shows that the demand for animal products and fats/oil increased with ...
Katz, Raul L
This book examines the reasons why various groups around the world choose not to adopt broadband services and evaluates strategies to stimulate the demand that will lead to increased broadband use. It introduces readers to the benefits of higher adoption rates while examining the progress that developed and emerging countries have made in stimulating broadband demand. By relying on concepts such as a supply and demand gap, broadband price elasticity, and demand promotion, this book explains differences between the fixed and mobile broadband demand gap, introducing the notions of substitution and complementarity between both platforms. Building on these concepts, ‘Driving Demand for Broadband Networks and Services’ offers a set of best practices and recommendations aimed at promoting broadband demand. The broadband demand gap is defined as individuals and households that could buy a broadband subscription because they live in areas served by telecommunications carriers but do not do so because of either ...
Dorman, Emily; Bishai, David
The biological basis for male contraception was established decades ago, but despite promising breakthroughs and the financial burden men increasingly bear due to better enforcement of child support policies, no viable alternative to the condom has been brought to market. Men who wish to control their fertility must rely on female compliance with contraceptives, barrier methods, vasectomy or abstinence. Over the last 10 years, the pharmaceutical industry has abandoned most of its investment in the field, leaving only nonprofit organisations and public entities pursuing male contraception. Leading explanations are uncertain forecasts of market demand pitted against the need for critical investments to demonstrate the safety of existing candidate products. This paper explores the developments and challenges in male contraception research. We produce preliminary estimates of potential market size for a safe and effective male contraceptive based on available data to estimate the potential market for a novel male method.
The study aim was to determine the pattern of demand for children and to suggest ways to introduce the idea of a small-family norm and reduce the unmet need for contraception in Pakistan. The concept of demand for children included the wantedness of the last birth and the timing of the next birth and changed with stage in reproductive life cycle. Data were obtained from the Pakistan Contraception Prevalence Survey of 1984/85. Pakistan's strong patriarchal system emphasized rapid achievement of first pregnancy in order to assure the perpetuation of the lineage. Female status, even with advanced education, emphasized fecundity and producing a male heir. The birthing pattern among rural and urban lower-class women is to bear 3-4 children early in marriage. Evidence from prior surveys showed that educated women plan for a delay in second birth. Of the 6655 ever pregnant and nonsterilized women, about 48% of currently married women desired discontinuation of childbearing. 18% desired a delay of childbearing by 2 years and 10% desired no more children after a last undesired pregnancy. Unmet need was estimated at 17% of all women in the sample. Women desiring no more children were primarily older with 6-8 prior births. Indirect fertility estimates were generated by using Arriaga's techniques for stages of family formation. The resulting estimates showed that higher-parity women desiring no more children still had 2 more children, which was evidence of unmet need. Those desiring more children had higher fertility than those not desiring more children. These women also showed different patterns in their total demand for children, ideal family size, currently living children, and desire for their next birth. Ideal size tended to rise over the length of a marriage, which may mean that women with growing families may justify unwanted fertility. Duration of marriage was viewed as a reasonable indicator of need for fertility control and the concomitant need for outreach
Bao De You
Paper described recent situation and the reason of oils consumed increasing rapidly and the activity for searching oil around the world wide and proposed some suggestion for rapid development and commercialization of hydrogen energy system in China with her domestic resources. China could satisfy the energy demand with her domestic resources of renewable energies and depending on her domestic scientific and technology and personal resources etc. It could Clean up the misunderstanding of other country and worried about the oil price increasing. (author)
Rapidly-rising oil demand and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from road vehicles in China, passenger cars in particular, have attracted worldwide attention. As most studies to date were focused on the vehicle operation stage, the present study attempts to evaluate the energy demand and GHG emissions during the vehicle production process, which usually consists of two major stages-material production and vehicle assembly. Energy demand and GHG emissions in the material production stage are estimated using the following data: the mass of the vehicle, the distribution of material used by mass, and energy demand and GHG emissions associated with the production of each material. Energy demand in the vehicle assembly stage is estimated as a linear function of the vehicle mass, while the associated GHG emission is estimated according to the primary energy sources. It is concluded that the primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions during the production of a medium-sized passenger car in China are 69,108 MJ, 14,545 MJ and 6575 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 -eq). Primary energy demand, petroleum demand and GHG emissions in China's passenger car fleets in 2005 would be increased by 22%, 5% and 30%, respectively, if the vehicle production stage were included.
Ho Phooi Wai
Full Text Available Klang Valley, Malaysia is currently undergoing a massive development of rail transportation system expansion where the current integrated rail transit system will see new extensions of two MRT lines and an LRT line by year 2020. By year 2017, the first MRT line will be ready to run with 31 new rail stations connected to the current passenger rail network. The existing Park and Ride facilities in Klang Valley are commonly known as being unable to sufficiently cater for the current parking space demand. Therefore, with the expansion of many additional rail stations which are rapidly under construction, there are doubts that the future parking space at rail stations will be able to accommodate the sudden rise of rail passengers. Although the authorities are increasing parking bays at various locations, will the future parking demand at rail stations be sufficient? This paper studies the factors influencing parking demand in terms of population, car ownership, new car registrations and passenger rail ridership and estimating the future parking demand using Linear Regression method. Result shows that the forecasted parking demand at rail stations after the implementation of the first new MRT system in 2017 is 2.7 times more than in 2014.
Lu Hao; Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu; Hong Qian
Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various...
Epstein, Tamir; Xu, Liping; Gillies, Robert J; Gatenby, Robert A
Cancer cells, and a variety of normal cells, exhibit aerobic glycolysis, high rates of glucose fermentation in the presence of normal oxygen concentrations, also known as the Warburg effect. This metabolism is considered abnormal because it violates the standard model of cellular energy production that assumes glucose metabolism is predominantly governed by oxygen concentrations and, therefore, fermentative glycolysis is an emergency back-up for periods of hypoxia. Though several hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of aerobic glycolysis, its biological basis in cancer and normal cells is still not well understood. We examined changes in glucose metabolism following perturbations in membrane activity in different normal and tumor cell lines and found that inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. Computational simulations demonstrated that these findings are consistent with a new model of normal physiological cellular metabolism in which efficient mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation supplies chronic energy demand primarily for macromolecule synthesis and glycolysis is necessary to supply rapid energy demands primarily to support membrane pumps. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. The predictions were confirmed experimentally. Our results show that glycolytic metabolism serves a critical physiological function under normoxic conditions by responding to rapid energetic demand, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This supports a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Cells use efficient but slow-responding aerobic metabolism
This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs
Alexander Yu. Sulimov
Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The deﬁnition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the deﬁnition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».
-Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries
Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K
The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.
Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.
The topic of demand side management is currently becoming more important than ever, in parallel with the further deregulation of the electricity sector, and the increasing integration of renewable energy sources. A historical review of automation integration in power system control assists in
Use of extraction chromatography, ion chromatography and liquid scintillation spectrometry for rapid determination of strontium-89 and strontium-90 in food in cases of increased release of radionuclides
For rapid determination of 89 Sr and 90 Sr in food, isocratic ion chromatography used for Sr isolation and purification is integrated in a complete analytical system comprising sample preparation, incineration, dissolution, phosphate precipitation for alkali/alkaline earth separation, and Sr specific extraction chromatography on crown ether basis for Ca/Sr separation. Strontium-89 and 90 Sr are determined by liquid scintillation spectrometry after carbonate precipitation. The components of the mixed spectra obtained are calculated by the computerized spectra subtraction method. Two days plus measuring time are required for single, three for double analysis. The limit of detection for 89 Sr and 90 Sr is ca. 0.1 Bq x kg -1 , related to the fresh produce. (author)
Witcomb, Gemma L; Arcelus, Jon; Chen, Jue
Eating disorders are common, life-threatening conditions in Western countries, but until relatively recently they were regarded as uncommon in non-Western cultures. However, the prevalence of eating disorders in many of the more affluent non-Western countries is rising rapidly as community members, particularly young women, internalize the 'thin ideal' that has been widely promoted by the international media. This review discusses the factors involved in the development of eating disorders in non-Western settings with a particular emphasis on the influences of urbanization, modernization, Westernization, and the resulting changes in women's roles. The cognitive dissonance programs developed in Western countries that have proven successful in countering the negative effects of the thin idea are described and their potential application to East Asia and other non-Western countries are discussed.
Sikkink, Kristin L; Ituarte, Catherine M; Reynolds, Rose M; Cresko, William A; Phillips, Patrick C
Parents encountering stress environments can influence the phenotype of their offspring in a form of transgenerational phenotypic plasticity that has the potential to be adaptive if offspring are thereby better able to deal with future stressors. Here, we test for the existence of anticipatory parental effects in the heat stress response in the highly polymorphic nematode Caenorhabditis remanei. Rather providing an anticipatory response, parents subject to a prior heat stress actually produce offspring that are less able to survive a severe heat shock. Selection on heat shock resistance within the larvae via experimental evolution leads to a loss of sensitivity (robustness) to environmental variation during both the parental and larval periods. Whole genome transcriptional analysis of both ancestor and selected lines shows that there is weak correspondence between genetic pathways induced via temperature shifts during parental and larval periods. Parental effects can evolve very rapidly via selection acting directly on offspring. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Spriggs, M J
Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)
Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever
At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...
The projected supply and demand for natural gas in five major regions of North America for the year 2000 was presented. In most regions, supply is expected to be greater than demand. A summary of how California dealt with an increase in natural gas demand in 1990 was presented. The California strategy included a readjustment of pipeline capacity, storage capacity and transportation. Whereas in the 1980s, when capacity was inadequate, the focus was on competition with alternate fuels, maximized capacity use, primary concern about reliability and only secondary concern about price, in the the 1990s, with excess capacity, the emphasis is on 'gas on gas' competition, efforts to satisfy the customer, primary concern about price, and only marginal concern about reliability. tabs., figs
Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab
Smed, Sinne; Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze how news about food-related health risks affects consumers’ demands for safe food products. Design/methodology/approach – By identifying structural breaks in an econometrically estimated demand model, news with permanent impact on demand...... induces a permanent increase in the demand for pasteurized eggs, while more moderate negative news influences demand temporarily and to a lesser extent. There is, however, considerable variation in the response to food safety news across socio-demographic groups of consumers. Research limitations...... is distinguished from news with temporary impact. The Danish demand for pasteurized versus shell eggs is used as an illustrative case. Findings – Negative safety news about one product variety can provide significant stimulation to the demand for safe varieties. Severe negative news about the safety of shell eggs...
Rashid, T.; Sahir, M.H.
Residential sector is the core among the energy demand sectors in Pakistan. Currently, various techniques are being used worldwide to assess future energy demands including integrated system modeling (ISM). Therefore, the current study is focused on implementation of ISM approach for future energy demand analysis of Pakistan's residential sector in terms of increase in population, rapid urbanization, household size and type, and increase/decrease in GDP. A detailed business-as-usual (BAU) model is formulated in TIMES energy modeling framework using different factors like growth in future energy services, end-use technology characterization, and restricted fuel supplies. Additionally, the developed model is capable to compare the projected energy demand under different scenarios e.g. strong economy, weak economy and energy efficiency. The implementation of ISM proved a viable approach to predict the future energy demands of Pakistan's residential sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the energy consumption in the residential sector would be 46.5 Mtoe (Million Ton of Oil Equivalent) in 2040 compared to 23 Mtoe of the base year (2007) along with 600% increase in electricity demands. The study further maps the potential residential energy policies to congregate the future demands. (author)
Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François
This report provides an overview of the current debates about demand response development, focusing primarily on Europe, with some comparisons to the United States. ‘Demand response’ includes strategies that involve end-use customers adapting or altering their electricity demand in response to grid conditions or market prices. It is viewed as a multi-purpose power-system resource that enhances the energy system’s capacity to cope with increasing demand, rising costs of conventional transmissi...
The increasing use of demand-side management as a tool to reliably meet electricity demand at peak time has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organizations, managers, regulators and policymakers, This research reviews the growing literature on models used to study demand, consumer baseline (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, it reviews consumer baseline based on which further study the demand response...
Tonn, Bruce; Eisenberg, Joel
This piece explores the relationships between a rapidly aging U.S. population and the demand for residential energy. Data indicate that elderly persons use more residential energy than younger persons. In this time of steeply rising energy costs, energy is an especially important financial issue for the elderly with low and/or fixed incomes. As the absolute number of elderly as well as their proportion of the total US population both continue to increase, energy and the elderly population looms as another energy policy challenge
This conference presentation examined global oil market development and the role of Asian demand. It discussed plateau change versus cyclical movement in the global oil market; supply and demand issues of OPEC and non-OPEC oil; if high oil prices reduce demand; and the Asian oil picture in the global context. Asian oil demand has accounted for about 50 per cent of the global incremental oil market growth. The presentation provided data charts in graphical format on global and Asia-Pacific incremental oil demand from 1990-2005; Asia oil demand growth for selected nations; real GDP growth in selected Asian countries; and, Asia-Pacific oil production and net import requirements. It also included charts in petroleum product demand for Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Other data charts included key indicators for China's petroleum sector; China crude production and net oil import requirements; China's imports and the share of the Middle East; China's oil exports and imports; China's crude imports by source for 2004; China's imports of main oil products for 2004; India's refining capacity; India's product balance for net-imports and net-exports; and India's trade pattern of oil products. tabs., figs
Larson, Bruce A; Schnippel, Kathryn; Ndibongo, Buyiswa; Xulu, Thembisile; Brennan, Alana; Long, Lawrence; Fox, Matthew P; Rosen, Sydney
A mobile HIV counseling and testing (HCT) program around Johannesburg piloted the integration of point-of-care (POC) CD4 testing, using the Pima analyzer, to improve linkages to HIV care. We report results from this pilot program for patients testing positive (n = 508) from May to October 2010. We analyzed 3 primary outcomes: assignment to testing group (offered POC CD4 or not), successful follow-up (by telephone), and completed the referral visit for HIV care within 8 weeks after HIV testing if successfully followed up. Proportions for each outcome were calculated, and relative risks were estimated using a modified Poisson approach. Three hundred eleven patients were offered the POC CD4 test, and 197 patients were not offered the test. No differences in patient characteristics were observed between the 2 groups. Approximately 62.7% of patients were successfully followed up 8 weeks after HIV testing, with no differences observed between testing groups. Among those followed up, 54.4% reported completing their referral visit. Patients offered the POC CD4 test were more likely to complete the referral visit for further HIV care (relative risk 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.57). In this mobile HCT setting, patients offered POC CD4 testing as part of the HCT services were more likely to visit a referral clinic after testing, suggesting that rapid CD4 testing technology may improve linkage to HIV care. Future research can evaluate options for adjusting HCT services if POC CD4 testing was included permanently and the cost-effectiveness of the POC CD4 testing compared with other approaches for improving linkage of care.
This report covers the period 1983 to 1995. It draws together the industry's latest views on future trends in supply and demand, and sets them in their historical context. It devotes less discussion than its predecessors to the technical influences underpinning the Institute's supply and demand forecasts, and more to the factors which influence the market behaviour of the industry's various participants. As the last decade has clearly shown, these latter influences can easily be overlooked when undue attention is given to physical imbalances between supply and demand. (author)
Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand
Evaluating the comparative effectiveness of different demand side interventions to increase maternal health service utilization and practice of birth spacing in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo: an innovative, mixed methods approach.
Dumbaugh, Mari; Bapolisi, Wyvine; van de Weerd, Jennie; Zabiti, Michel; Mommers, Paula; Balaluka, Ghislain Bisimwa; Merten, Sonja
In this protocol we describe a mixed methods study in the province of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo evaluating the effectiveness of different demand side strategies to increase maternal health service utilization and the practice of birth spacing. Conditional service subsidization, conditional cash transfers and non-monetary incentives aim to encourage women to use maternal health services and practice birth spacing in two different health districts. Our methodology will comparatively evaluate the effectiveness of different approaches against each other and no intervention. This study comprises four main research activities: 1) Formative qualitative research to determine feasibility of planned activities and inform development of the quantitative survey; 2) A community-based, longitudinal survey; 3) A retrospective review of health facility records; 4) Qualitative exploration of intervention acceptability and emergent themes through in-depth interviews with program participants, non-participants, their partners and health providers. Female community health workers are engaged as core members of the research team, working in tandem with female survey teams to identify women in the community who meet eligibility criteria. Female community health workers also act as key informants and community entry points during methods design and qualitative exploration. Main study outcomes are completion of antenatal care, institutional delivery, practice of birth spacing, family planning uptake and intervention acceptability in the communities. Qualitative methods also explore decision making around maternal health service use, fertility preference and perceptions of family planning. The innovative mixed methods design allows quantitative data to inform the relationships and phenomena to be explored in qualitative collection. In turn, qualitative findings will be triangulated with quantitative findings. Inspired by the principles of grounded theory, qualitative
Bloze, Gintautas; Skak, Morten
register data and presents estimations of the probability of owning a second home, the decision to let the second home and the number of let weeks per year. Also income elasticities for primary and second housing demand are estimated. We find a conventional monotonic increase in demand elasticities...... for primary housing demand for non-owners of second homes; however, owners of second homes have the highest income elasticity in the middle income group....
O Nions, E.; Viding, E.; Greven, C. U.; Ronald, A.; Happé, F.
'Pathological Demand Avoidance' is a term increasingly used by practitioners in the United Kingdom. It was coined to describe a profile of obsessive resistance to everyday demands and requests, with a tendency to resort to 'socially manipulative' behaviour, including outrageous or embarrassing acts. Pathological demand avoidance is thought to share aspects of social impairment with autism spectrum disorders, but autism spectrum disorder-appropriate strategies, such as routine and repetition, ...
With the increasingly short half-lives of the heavy element isotopes in the transition region from the heaviest actinides to the transactinide elements the demand for automated rapid chemistry techniques is also increasing. Separation times of significantly less than one minute, high chemical yields, high repetition rates, and an adequate detection system are prerequisites for many successful experiments in this field. The development of techniques for separations in the gas phase and in the aqueous phase for applications of chemical or nuclear studies of the heaviest elements are briefly outlined. Typical examples of results obtained with automated techniques are presented for studies up to element 105, especially those obtained with the Automated Rapid Chemistry Apparatus, ARCA. The prospects to investigate the properties of even heavier elements with chemical techniques are discussed
Christiansen, Nina; Nielsen, Lene; Jakobsen, Lotte
Resistance to ciprofloxacin in Escherichia coli from urinary tract infections (UTI) in Denmark is increasing parallel to increased use of fluoroquinolones both in Denmark and in other European countries. The objective was to investigate the occurrence of ciprofloxacin resistance mechanisms......, phenotypic coresistance, and if ciprofloxacin resistance was caused by clonal spread or to individual mutational events in a collection of consecutively obtained E. coli submitted to a clinical microbiology department at a Danish hospital. One hundred four UTI-related E. coli resistant toward nalidixic acid...
Perhaps the most compelling issue the world will face in the next century is the quality of life of the increasing populations of the poorer regions of the world. Energy is the key to generating wealth and protecting the environment. Today, most of the energy generated comes from fossil fuels and there should be enough for an increase in consumption over the next half century. However, this is likely to be impacted by the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions. Various authoritative studies lead to a global energy demand projection of between 850 to 1070 EJ per year in the mid-21 st century, which is nearly three times as much as the world uses today. The studies further indicate that, unless there is a major thrust by governments to create incentives and/or to levy heavy taxes, the use of fossil fuels will continue to increase and there will be a major increase in carbon dioxide emissions globally. Most of the increase will come from the newly industrializing countries which do not have the technology or financial resources to install non-carbon energy sources such as nuclear power, and the new renewable energy technologies. The real issue for the nuclear industry is investment cost. Developing countries, in particular will have difficulty in raising capital for energy projects with a high installed cost and will have difficulties in raising large blocks of capital. A reduction in investment costs of the order of 50% with a short construction schedule is in order if nuclear power is to compete and contribute significantly to energy supply and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. Current nuclear power plants and methods are simply not suited to the production of plants that will compete in this situation. Mass production designs are needed to get the benefits of cost reduction. Water cooled reactors are well demonstrated and positioned to achieve the cost reduction necessary but only via some radical thinking on the part of the designers. The reactors of
Estifanos Biru Shargie
Full Text Available Following recent large scale-up of malaria control interventions in Ethiopia, this study aimed to compare ownership and use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN, and the change in malaria prevalence using two population-based household surveys in three regions of the country. Each survey used multistage cluster random sampling with 25 households per cluster. Household net ownership tripled from 19.6% in 2006 to 68.4% in 2007, with mean LLIN per household increasing from 0.3 to 1.2. Net use overall more than doubled from 15.3% to 34.5%, but in households owning LLIN, use declined from 71.7% to 48.3%. Parasitemia declined from 4.1% to 0.4%. Large scale-up of net ownership over a short period of time was possible. However, a large increase in net ownership was not necessarily mirrored directly by increased net use. Better targeting of nets to malaria-risk areas and sustained behavioural change communication are needed to increase and maintain net use.
Bortz, D M; Mikkelsen, J D; Bruno, J P
The ability of local infusions of the alpha 7 nicotinic acetycholine receptor (α7 nAChR) partial agonist SSR180711 to evoke glutamate release in prefrontal cortex was determined in awake rats using a microelectrode array. Infusions of SSR180711 produced dose-dependent increases in glutamate levels...
The charging for a service is a supplier's remuneration for the expenses incurred in providing it. There are currently two charges for electricity: consumption and maximum demand. While no problem arises about the former, the issue is more complicated for the latter and the analysis in this article tends to show that the annual charge for maximum demand arbitrarily discriminates among consumer groups, to the disadvantage of some [it
It is known that statistically significant (positive) results are more likely to be published than non-significant (negative) results. However, it has been unclear whether any increasing prevalence of positive results is stronger in the “softer” disciplines (social sciences) than in the “harder” disciplines (physical sciences), and whether the prevalence of negative results is decreasing over time. Using Scopus, we searched the abstracts of papers published between 1990 and 2013, and measured longitudinal trends of multiple expressions of positive versus negative results, including p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 versus p-values between 0.051 and 0.059, textual reporting of “significant difference” versus “no significant difference,” and the reporting of p 0.05. We found no support for a “hierarchy of sciences” with physical sciences at the top and social sciences at the bottom. However, we found large differences in reporting practices between disciplines, with p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 over 1990–2013 being 65.7 times more prevalent in the biological sciences than in the physical sciences. The p-values near the significance threshold of 0.05 on either side have both increased but with those p-values between 0.041 and 0.049 having increased to a greater extent (2013-to-1990 ratio of the percentage of papers = 10.3) than those between 0.051 and 0.059 (ratio = 3.6). Contradictorily, p 0.05 (ratios = 1.4 and 4.8, respectively), while the use of “significant difference” has shown only a modest increase compared to “no significant difference” (ratios = 1.5 and 1.1, respectively). We also compared reporting of significance in the United States, Asia, and Europe and found that the results are too inconsistent to draw conclusions on cross-cultural differences in significance reporting. We argue that the observed longitudinal trends are caused by negative factors, such as an increase of questionable research practices, but also by
Chen, Szu-Chia; Lin, Tsung-Hsien; Hsu, Po-Chao; Chang, Jer-Ming; Lee, Chee-Siong; Tsai, Wei-Chung; Su, Ho-Ming; Voon, Wen-Chol; Chen, Hung-Chun
Heart failure and increased arterial stiffness are associated with declining renal function. Few studies have evaluated the association between left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and brachial-ankle pulse-wave velocity (baPWV) and renal function progression. The aim of this study was to assess whether LVEFfunction was estimated by eGFR slope. The renal end point was defined as ≥25% decline in eGFR. Clinical and echocardiographic parameters were compared and analyzed. After a multivariate analysis, serum hematocrit was positively associated with eGFR slope, and diabetes mellitus, baPWV (P=0.031) and LVEFfunction decline and progression to the renal end point.
Uqaili, M.A.; Harijan, K.; Memon, H.U.R.
Pakistan is an energy deficient country and heavily depends on imported energy. Natural gas is a dominating source of commercial energy in the country. This paper presents the natural gas consumption trends and future demand projections for Pakistan. The paper also investigates the potential utilization options of natural gas in the country. The study indicates that the natural gas consumption in the country increased rapidly at an average growth rate of about 6.8% per annum during the last three decades. Currently, natural gas contributes about 44.2% of the primary commercial energy supply in the country. Power, Fertilizer, General industry and Domestic sectors are the major consumers of gas in the country. The paper concludes the natural gas demand in the country is projected to increase to about 34-64 MTOE (Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent) by the year 2018. Enhancement in the indigenous exploration and modulation of gas and import of gas from central Asian Sates is essential for meeting the growing gas demand, protecting the environment and increasing the economic independence in the country. (author)
Nelson, Wayne A.
The rapid changes in our world precipitated by technology have created new problems and new challenges for education and training. A knowledge 'explosion' is occurring as our society moves toward a service oriented economy that relies on information as the major resource. Complex computer systems are beginning to dominate the workplace, causing alarming growth and change in many fields. The rapidly changing nature of the workplace, especially in fields related to information technology, requires that our knowledge be updated constantly. This characteristic of modern society poses seemingly unsolvable instructional problems involving coverage and obsolescence. The sheer amount of information to be learned is rapidly increasing, while at the same time some information becomes obsolete in light of new information. Education, therefore, must become a lifelong process that features learning of new material and skills as needed in relation to the job to be done. Because of the problems cited above, the current model of learning in advance may no longer be feasible in our high-technology world. In many cases, learning in advance is impossible because there are simply too many things to learn. In addition, learning in advance can be time consuming, and often results in decontextualized knowledge that does not readily transfer to the work environment. The large and growing discrepancy between the amount of potentially relevant knowledge available and the amount a person can know and remember makes learning on demand an important alternative to current instructional practices. Learning on demand takes place whenever an individual must learn something new in order to perform a task or make a decision. Learning on demand is a promising approach for addressing the problems of coverage and obsolescence because learning is contextualized and integrated into the task environment rather than being relegated to a separate phase that precedes work. Learning on demand allows learners
Based on historical analysis of Chinese oil consumption from 1980 to 2008, the author develops an econometric modeling - Medium and Long-term Chinese Oil Demand Forecast Model. Results shows that, Chinese oil demand will be 632 MT in 2020 without consideration of substitutions, and the annual growth rate will be 4.2%, much slower than before. The demand ratio of diesel to gasoline will decline, while kerosene demand will grow faster. If new energy vehicles (NGV and electric vehicles, etc.) develop rapidly and industrial fuel-oil demand is substituted effectively, about 23 million tons of oil could be saved.
Since the early 1970's the enrichment market situation has changed dramatically. Falling demands and increasing production capacity has resulted in over-capacity and stockpiles of enriched uranium. New trends in the industry are considered by analysing the following issues: supply and demand; technical development; build-up plans; contracting policies; enrichment economics; and nuclear safeguards. (U.K.)
O'Nions, Elizabeth; Viding, Essi; Greven, Corina U; Ronald, Angelica; Happé, Francesca
"Pathological Demand Avoidance" is a term increasingly used by practitioners in the United Kingdom. It was coined to describe a profile of obsessive resistance to everyday demands and requests, with a tendency to resort to "socially manipulative" behaviour, including outrageous or embarrassing acts. Pathological demand…
Full Text Available Aims: This study aims to evaluate the implementation of a rapid response treatment protocol for patients presenting with acute onset ischemic stroke. Improvements of routines surrounding the admission and treatment of patients with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT, such as door-to-needle (DTN times, and increasing the numbers of patients treated are discussed. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients (n = 320 treated with IVT for acute onset ischemic stroke at the Stavanger University Hospital, Norway, between 2003 and 2012. In 2009, a succession of changes to pre- and intra-hospital routines were made as well as an improvement in the education of primary health care physicians, nurses and paramedics involved in the treatment of acute onset stroke patients (rapid response treatment protocol. Analyses of DTN times, onset-to-needle times and the number of patients treated per year were carried out to ascertain the effect of the changes made. The primary aim was to analyze DTN times to look for any changes, and the secondary aim was to analyze changes in the number of patients treated per year. Results: In the years after the implementation of the rapid treatment protocol, we saw an improvement in the median DTN time with a decrease from 73 to 50 min in the first year (p = 0.03, a decrease of 45 min in the second year (p = 0.01 and a decrease of 31 min in the third year (p Conclusions: The implementation of the rapid treatment protocol for acute onset ischemic stroke patients led to a significant decrease in the DTN time at our center. These improvements also produced an increase in the number of patients treated per year. The extension of the therapeutic window from 3 to 4.5 h for the use of intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator also played a role in the increased treatment numbers.
Nuclear power-generating capacity will continue to expand, albeit at a slower pace than during the past fifteen years. This expansion must be matched by an adequately increasing supply of uranium. This report compares uranium supply and demand data in free market countries with the nuclear industry's natural uranium requirements up to the year 2000. It also reviews the status of uranium exploration, resources and production in 46 countries
Application of Solid Phase Microextraction Coupled with Gas Chromatography/Mass Spectrometry as a Rapid Method for Field Sampling and Analysis of Chemical Warfare Agents and Toxic Industrial Chemicals
Hook, Gary L
..., is: What chemicals are present? In order to answer this question rapidly, there is increasing demand for field analysis of volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds with instrumentation that provides definitive identification...
Udo Broll; Sabine Hansen
The purpose of this paper is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility exerts a positive effect on a firm's labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option provided the firm under study is flexible. Flexibility is important because it gives the firm option value. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and may increase the demand for labour. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the ef...
Li, Yi; Sun, Qiao-Ling; Shen, Yingbo; Zhang, Yangjunna; Yang, Jun-Wen; Shu, Ling-Bin; Zhou, Hong-Wei; Wang, Yang; Wang, Bing; Zhang, Rong; Wang, Shaolin; Shen, Zhangqi
The global spread of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) is one of the most severe threats to human health in a clinical setting. The recent emergence of plasmid-mediated colistin resistance gene mcr-1 among CRE strains greatly compromises the use of colistin as a last resort for the treatment of infections caused by CRE. This study aimed to understand the current epidemiological trends and characteristics of CRE from a large hospital in Henan, the most populous province in China. From 2014 to 2016, a total of 7,249 Enterobacteriaceae isolates were collected from clinical samples, among which 18.1% (1,311/7,249) were carbapenem resistant. Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae and carbapenem-resistant Escherichia coli were the two most common CRE species, with Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemases (KPC) and New Delhi metallo-β-lactamases (NDM), respectively, responsible for the carbapenem resistance of the two species. Notably, >57.0% ( n = 589) of the K. pneumoniae isolates from the intensive care unit were carbapenem resistant. Furthermore, bla NDM-5 and mcr-1 were found to coexist in one E. coli isolate, which exhibited resistance to almost all tested antibiotics. Overall, we observed a significant increase in the prevalence of CRE isolates during the study period and suggest that carbapenems may no longer be considered to be an effective treatment for infections caused by K. pneumoniae in the studied hospital. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Microbiology.
Full Text Available Purpose. In Korea, it has been estimated that the number of the single-household elderly increased 45% from 2005 to 2010. This research was conducted to provide empirical resources for development of a community mental health program by an explorative investigation on depression, coping mechanism, and life satisfaction of a single-household elderly population. Design and Methods. This research applied a descriptive survey research design. Participants were 225 single-household elderlies residing in Seoul, Korea. The geriatric depression scale and the satisfaction with life scale were used to check the level of depression and life satisfaction of the participants. Results. Results showed that 46.3 percent of the participants were categorized as having light-to-severe level of depression, and 80.5 percent of the participants responded that they were dissatisfied with their lives. This research demonstrated that the level of depression and life satisfaction of the Korean single-household elderly is statistically significantly related to age and gender as well as coping resources and human resources. Implications. Current public health services in Korea for the single-household elderly are still lacking and require active support, intervention, and research to provide effective programs and services. Case management, counseling, and various programs based on Korean culture including support from family members and community-based assistance are recommended to help the vulnerable population.
UK Nuclear Sites: DECOMMISSIONING - 26 Magnox Reactors, 2 Fast Reactors; OPERATIONAL - 14 AGRs, 1 PWR; 9.6 GWe Total Capacity. Nuclear Workforce Demand • Total workforce demand is expected to grow from ~88,000 in 2017 to ~101,000 in 2021 • Average “inflow” is ~7,000 FTEs per annum • 22% of the workforce is female (28% in civil, 12% in defence) • 81% generic skills, 18% nuclear skills, 1% subject matter experts • 3300 trainees total in SLCs and Defence Enterprise (16% graduate trainees) • At peak demand on Civils Construction, over 4,000 workers will be required on each nuclear new build site • Manufacturing workforce is expected to rise from around 4,000 in 2014 to 8,500 at the peak of onsite activity in 2025
Vindstad, Ole Petter Laksforsmo; Schultze, Sabrina; Jepsen, Jane Uhd; Biuw, Martin; Kapari, Lauri; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne; Ims, Rolf Anker
Saproxylic insects play an important part in decomposing dead wood in healthy forest ecosystems, but little is known about their role in the aftermath of large-scale forest mortality caused by pest insect outbreaks. We used window traps to study short-term changes in the abundance and community structure of saproxylic beetles following extensive mortality of mountain birch in sub-arctic northern Norway caused by an outbreak of geometrid moths. Three to five years after the outbreak, the proportion of obligate saproxylic individuals in the beetle community was roughly 10% higher in forest damaged by the outbreak than in undamaged forest. This was mainly due to two early-successional saproxylic beetle species. Facultative saproxylic beetles showed no consistent differences between damaged and undamaged forest. These findings would suggest a weak numerical response of the saproxylic beetle community to the dead wood left by the outbreak. We suggest that species-specific preferences for certain wood decay stages may limit the number of saproxylic species that respond numerically to an outbreak at a particular time, and that increases in responding species may be constrained by limitations to the amount of dead wood that can be exploited within a given timeframe (i.e. satiation effects). Low diversity of beetle species or slow development of larvae in our cold sub-arctic study region may also limit numerical responses. Our study suggests that saproxylic beetles, owing to weak numerical responses, may so far have played a minor role in decomposing the vast quantities of dead wood left by the moth outbreak.
Ole Petter Laksforsmo Vindstad
Full Text Available Saproxylic insects play an important part in decomposing dead wood in healthy forest ecosystems, but little is known about their role in the aftermath of large-scale forest mortality caused by pest insect outbreaks. We used window traps to study short-term changes in the abundance and community structure of saproxylic beetles following extensive mortality of mountain birch in sub-arctic northern Norway caused by an outbreak of geometrid moths. Three to five years after the outbreak, the proportion of obligate saproxylic individuals in the beetle community was roughly 10% higher in forest damaged by the outbreak than in undamaged forest. This was mainly due to two early-successional saproxylic beetle species. Facultative saproxylic beetles showed no consistent differences between damaged and undamaged forest. These findings would suggest a weak numerical response of the saproxylic beetle community to the dead wood left by the outbreak. We suggest that species-specific preferences for certain wood decay stages may limit the number of saproxylic species that respond numerically to an outbreak at a particular time, and that increases in responding species may be constrained by limitations to the amount of dead wood that can be exploited within a given timeframe (i.e. satiation effects. Low diversity of beetle species or slow development of larvae in our cold sub-arctic study region may also limit numerical responses. Our study suggests that saproxylic beetles, owing to weak numerical responses, may so far have played a minor role in decomposing the vast quantities of dead wood left by the moth outbreak.
Sznopek, John L.
Introduction: The word 'demand' has different meanings for different people. To some, it means their 'wants and needs,' to others it is what they consume. Yet, when considering economics, demand refers to the specific amounts of goods or services that individuals will purchase at various prices. Demand is measured over a given time period. It is determined by a number of factors including income, tastes, and the price of complementary and substitute goods. In this paper, the term consumption is used fairly synonymously with the term demand. Most mineral commodities, like iron ore, copper, zinc, and gravel, are intermediate goods, which means that they are used in the production of other goods, called final goods. Demand for intermediate goods is called derived demand because such demand is derived from the demand for final goods. When demand increases for a commodity, generally the price rises. With everything else held constant, this increases the profits for those who provide this commodity. Normally, this would increase profits of existing producers and attract new producers to the market. When demand for a commodity decreases, generally the price falls. Normally, this would cause profits to fall and, as a consequence, the least efficient firms may be forced from the industry. Demand changes for specific materials as final goods or production techniques are reengineered while maintaining or improving product performance, for example, the use of aluminum in the place of copper in long distance electrical transmission lines or plastic replacing steel in automobile bumpers. Substitution contributes to efficient material usage by utilizing cheaper or technically superior materials. In this way, it may also alleviate materials scarcity. If a material becomes relatively scarce (and thus more expensive), a more abundant (and less expensive) material generally replaces it (Wagner and others, 2003, p. 91).
Directives from the Minister to the Ontario Energy Board to review options for demand-side management and demand reduction activities, and discussion papers describing the policy framework needed to implement demand management, are indications of renewed interest by the provincial government in demand-side management of Ontario's electric power supply. This renewed interest comes on the hills of a 5.5 per cent increase in electricity use, a 33 per cent increase in imports, and consumption records broken in 10 of the last 12 months. A 117-page study was released in April by Navigant Consulting, entitled 'Demand response blueprint for Ontario' which estimates that if the Ontario market had 250 MW of additional demand response, customers providing the demand response would have saved $20 million by reducing their demand when HOEP was greater than $120/MWh, while other customers would have saved $170 million due to lower HOEP, and would have enjoyed greater reliability as a result of the increase in reserve margins. Other than price signals to induce customers to save, the Navigant report suggest paying customers not to consume during peak periods. The report estimates that such a policy could generate a total demand response of 350 MW and a $235 million reduction in revenue to generators. The Navigan report also includes a large number of detailed analysis and recommendations. One among them is for the extensive use of interval meters for customers with loads over 200 kW. The report tends to be critical of the recent price freeze ordered by the Ontario government, claiming that the freeze could increase consumption, making prices more volatile and increasing the cost to the government even more. Successful demand response programs from California, New York and the New England states are cited as examples for Ontario to emulate
Full Text Available This article analyses the existing possibilities for using Standard Statistical Methods and Artificial Intelligence Methods for a short-term forecast and simulation of demand in the field of telecommunications. The most widespread methods are based on Time Series Analysis. Nowadays, approaches based on Artificial Intelligence Methods, including Neural Networks, are booming. Separate approaches will be used in the study of Demand Modelling in Telecommunications, and the results of these models will be compared with actual guaranteed values. Then we will examine the quality of Neural Network models.
DemandStat is an accurate and up-to-date international statistics database dedicated to energy demand, with an unrivaled level of details for powerful market analysis. It provides detailed consumption statistics (30 sectors) on all energies, detailed 2003 data and historical annual data since 1970, frequent data revision and update (2 updates options), 150 data sources gathered and expertized, all data on a single database Consistent and homogeneous statistics, in line with all major data providers (IEA, Eurostat, ADB, OLADE, etc), no ruptures in time-series with easy request building and data analysis and reactive support from data experts. (A.L.B.)
Boysen, Lis; Hende, Merete
Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de to temat......Dette notat beskriver nogle af resultaterne fra programmet "Education on Demand' i projektet Det erhvervsrettede Uddannelseslaboratorium. Programmet har haft fokus på udfordringer og forandringsbehov i uddannelsesinstitutioner og -systemet. Herunder har det beskæftiget sig særligt med de...
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris
With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry – the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors – is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The "Red Book", jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23rd edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global ur...
Ibitoye, F.I.; Adenikinju, A.
Availability and reliability of electricity supplies have always been vexed issue in Nigeria. With an estimated population of 130 million people in AD 2005, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and belongs to the group of countries with the lowest electricity consumption per capita in the continent. Nigeria is also ranked among the poorest countries in the world. This paper examines the likely trend in the demand for electricity over the next 25 years under the assumptions that (i) there is a rapid economic development such that Nigeria transforms from low- to middle-income economy during this period, (ii) Nigeria meets the millennium development goals (MDG) in AD 2015, and (iii) the country achieves the status of an industrializing nation. For these to happen, this paper projects that electric-power generation will have to rise from the current capacity of 6500 MW to over 160 GW in AD 2030. This level of supply will be significant enough to increase the per capita electricity consumption to about 5000 kWh per capita by the year 2030. Even then, this just compares with the AD 2003 per capital consumption of some industrializing countries. Analysis of the level of investment required to meet the projected power demand indicates that annual investment cost will rise from US3.8 billion in AD 2006 to a peak of US21 billion in AD 2028. The total investment stream over the 25 year period comes to US262 billion or roughly US10 billion per annum. (author)
van Bilsen, P.; Hamers, J.; Groot, W.; Spreeuwenberg, C.
Background: Because of the rapid aging population, the demand for residential care exceeds availability. This paper presents the results of a study that focuses on the demand of elderly people for residential care and determinants (elderly people's personal characteristics, needs and resources) that
Zhang, Y.; Hua, Guowei; Wang, Shouyang; Zhang, Juliang; Fernández Alarcón, Vicenç
Demand variability is prevailing in the current rapidly changing business environment, which makes it difficult for a retailer that sells multiple substitutable products to determine the optimal inventory. To combat demand uncertainty, both strategies of inventory substitution and probabilistic selling can be used. Although the two strategies differ in operation, we believe that they share a common feature in combating demand uncertainty by encouraging some customers to give up some specific ...
Allen, E L; Edmonds, J A
During the post World War 2 years energy consumption has grown 136% while population grew about 51%; per capita consumption of energy expanded, therefore, about 60%. For a given population size, demographic changes mean an increase in energy needs; for instance the larger the group of retirement age people, the smaller their energy needs than are those for a younger group. Estimates indicate that by the year 2000 the energy impact will be toward higher per capita consumption with 60% of the population in the 19-61 age group of workers. Rising female labor force participation will increase the working group even more; it has also been found that income and energy grow at a proportional rate. The authors predict that gasoline consumption within the US will continue to rise with availability considering the larger number of female drivers and higher per capita incomes. The flow of illegal aliens (750,000/year) will have a major impact on income and will use greater amounts of energy than can be expected. A demographic change which will lower energy demands will be the slowdown of the rate of household formation caused by the falling number of young adults. The response of energy demand to price changes is small and slow but incomes play a larger role as does the number of personal automobiles and social changes affecting household formation. Households, commercial space, transportation, and industry are part of every demand analysis and population projections play a major role in determining these factors.
Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari
to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...
The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)
The year 2004 saw a change in the oil market paradigm that was confirmed in 2005. Despite a calmer geopolitical context, prices continued to rise vigorously. Driven by world demand, they remain high as a result of the saturation of production and refining capacity. The market is still seeking its new equilibrium. (author)
Arnold, I.J.M.; Roelands, S.
This paper investigates the demand for euros using panel data for 10 euro area countries covering the period from 1999 to 2008. Monetary aggregates are constructed to ensure that money is a national concept by excluding deposits owned by non-residents and including external deposits owned by
World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)
World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)
Gam, Imen; Ben Rejeb, Jaleleddine
This paper examines the global electricity demand in Tunisia as a function of gross domestic product in constant price, the degree of urbanization, the average annual temperature, and the real electricity price per Kwh. This demand will be examined employing annual data over a period spanning almost thirty one years from 1976 to 2006. A long run relationship between the variables under consideration is determined using the Vector Autoregressive Regression. The empirical results suggest that the electricity demand in Tunisia is sensitive to its past value, any changes in gross domestic product and electricity price. The electricity price effects have a negative impact on long-run electricity consumption. However, the gross domestic product and the past value of electricity consumption have a positive effect. Moreover, the causality test reveals a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption. Our empirical findings are effective to policy makers to maintain the electricity consumption in Tunisia by using the appropriate strategy. - Highlights: ► This paper examined the electricity demand in Tunisia in the long-run. ► The empirical analysis revealed that in the long-run the electricity demand is affected by changes in its past value, GDP in constant price and real electricity price. ► There is a unidirectional relationship between price and electricity consumption, that is to say, that the electricity price causes the consumption. ► Those results suggest that a pricing policy can be an effective instrument to rationalize the electricity consumption in Tunisia in the long-run.
Aden, Nathaniel; Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina
This study analyzes China's coal industry by focusing on four related areas. First, data are reviewed to identify the major drivers of historical and future coal demand. Second, resource constraints and transport bottlenecks are analyzed to evaluate demand and growth scenarios. The third area assesses the physical requirements of substituting coal demand growth with other primary energy forms. Finally, the study examines the carbon- and environmental implications of China's past and future coal consumption. There are three sections that address these areas by identifying particular characteristics of China's coal industry, quantifying factors driving demand, and analyzing supply scenarios: (1) reviews the range of Chinese and international estimates of remaining coal reserves and resources as well as key characteristics of China's coal industry including historical production, resource requirements, and prices; (2) quantifies the largest drivers of coal usage to produce a bottom-up reference projection of 2025 coal demand; and (3) analyzes coal supply constraints, substitution options, and environmental externalities. Finally, the last section presents conclusions on the role of coal in China's ongoing energy and economic development. China has been, is, and will continue to be a coal-powered economy. In 2007 Chinese coal production contained more energy than total Middle Eastern oil production. The rapid growth of coal demand after 2001 created supply strains and bottlenecks that raise questions about sustainability. Urbanization, heavy industrial growth, and increasing per-capita income are the primary interrelated drivers of rising coal usage. In 2007, the power sector, iron and steel, and cement production accounted for 66% of coal consumption. Power generation is becoming more efficient, but even extensive roll-out of the highest efficiency units would save only 14% of projected 2025 coal demand for the power sector. A new wedge of
Gu, Xuewu; Kupfer, K.
The power demand in Eastern Asia (especially in China, Japan and South Korea) increases rapidly while the amounts of raw materials decrease. The international cooperation in energetic and ecological aspects continues to fail. The contribution under consideration reports on strategies of East Asian countries according to the securing of power and according to potential conflicts in this region as well as worldwide. Additionally, the authors point out several solutions by means of cooperation and innovation in the area of renewable energy, for example
Houwing, M.; Negenborn, R.R.; De Schutter, B.
With the increasing application of distributed energy resources and novel information technologies in the electricity infrastructure, innovative possibilities to incorporate the demand side more actively in power system operation are enabled. A promising, controllable, residential distributed
Ang, B.W.; Goh, T.N.; Liu, X.Q.
Residential electricity consumption in Singapore increased at a rate of 8.8% per year between 1972 and 1990. Estimates of the long-run income and price elasticities are 1.0 and -0.35, respectively. The energy-conservation campaigns that have been launched are found to have marginal effects on consumption. A statistical analysis shows that the consumption is sensitive to small changes in climatic variables, particularly the temperature, which is closely linked to the growing diffusion of electric appliances for environmental controls. There has been a temporal increase in the ownership levels of appliances associated with increasing household incomes. However, other factors were involved since the ownership levels would also increase over time after the elimination of the income effect. A large part of the future growth in electricity demand will arise from the growing need for air-conditioning, which will lead to increasingly large seasonal variations in electricity use. (author)
Kim, Myong Seop; Park, Sang Jun
By using this doping method, silicon semiconductors with an extremely uniform dopant distribution can be produced. They are usually used for high power devices such as thyristor (SCR), IGBT, IGCT and GTO. Now, the demand for high power semiconductor devices has increased rapidly due to the rapid increase of the green energy technologies. Among them, the productions of hybrid cars or fuel cell engines are excessively increased to reduce the amount of discharged air pollution substances, such as carbon dioxide which causes global warming. It is known that the neutron-transmutation-doped floating-zone (FZ) silicon wafers are used in insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) which control the speed of the electric traction motors equipped in hybrid or fuel cell vehicles. Therefore, inevitably, it can be supposed that the demand of the NTD silicon is considerably increased. However, it is considered likely that the irradiation capacity will not be large enough to meet the increasing demand. After all, the large irradiation capacity for NTD such as a reactor dedicated to the silicon irradiation will be constructed depending on the industrial demand for NTD silicon. In this work, we investigated the relationship between the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) industry and the NTD silicon production. Also, we surveyed the prospect for the production of the HEV. Then, we deduced the worldwide demand for the NTD silicon associated with the HEV production. This work can be utilized as the basic material for the construction of the new irradiation facility such as NTD-dedicated neutron source
Pascal, Courty; Mario, Pagliero
Using data from a unique pricing experiment, we investigate Vickrey’s conjecture that responsive pricing can be used to smooth both predictable and unpredictable demand shocks. Our evidence shows that increasing the responsiveness of price to demand conditions reduces the magnitude of deviations in capacity utilization rates from a pre-determined target level. A 10 percent increase in price variability leads to a decrease in the variability of capacity utilization rates between...
Full Text Available The concepts of Supply Chain Management (SCM and Demand Chain Management (DCM are among the new and debated topics concerning logistics in the literature. The question considered in this paper is: “Are these concepts needed or will they just add to the confusion?” Lasting business concepts have always evolved in close interaction between business and academia. Different approaches start out in business and they are then, more or less si- multaneously, aligned, integrated, systemised and structured in academia. In this way a terminology (or language is provided that helps in further diffusion of the concepts. There is a lack of consensus on the definition of the concept of SCM. This may be one of the major reasons for the difficulty in advancing the science and measuring the results of implementation in business. Relationships in SCM span from rather loose coalitions to highly structured virtual network integrations. DCM is a highly organised chain in which the key is mutual interdependence and partnership. The purpose is to create a distinctive competence for the chain as a whole that helps to identify and satisfy customer needs and wishes. The classical research concerning vertical marketing systems is very helpful in systemising the rather unstructured discussions in current SCM research. The trend lies in increasing competition between channels rather than between companies, which in turn leads to the creation of channels with a high degree of partnership and mutual interdependence between members. These types of channels are known as organised vertical marketing systems in the classic marketing channel research. The behaviour in these types of channels, as well as the formal and informal structures, roles in the network, power and dependence relations, etc. are well covered topics in the literature. The concept of vertical marketing systems lies behind the definition of demand chains and demand chain management proposed in this paper. A
Rodríguez, A; Borrás, J M; López-Torrecilla, J; Algara, M; Palacios-Eito, A; Gómez-Caamaño, A; Olay, L; Lara, P C
Assessing the demand for radiotherapy in Spain based on existing evidence to estimate the human resources and equipment needed so that every person in Spain has access to high-quality radiotherapy when they need it. We used data from the European Cancer Observatory on the estimated incidence of cancer in Spain in 2012, along with the evidence-based indications for radiotherapy developed by the Australian CCORE project, to obtain an optimal radiotherapy utilisation proportion (OUP) for each tumour. About 50.5 % of new cancers in Spain require radiotherapy at least once over the course of the disease. Additional demand for these services comes from reradiation therapy and non-melanoma skin cancer. Approximately, 25-30 % of cancer patients with an indication for radiotherapy do not receive it due to factors that include access, patient preference, familiarity with the treatment among physicians, and especially resource shortages, all of which contribute to its underutilisation. Radiotherapy is underused in Spain. The increasing incidence of cancer expected over the next decade and the greater frequency of reradiations necessitate the incorporation of radiotherapy demand into need-based calculations for cancer services planning.
Selma Norberto Matos
Full Text Available From the implementation of public policies on school inclusion, mainly those directed to the target audience of special education, the number of students with special educational needs in common classes has increased. This fact has helped to compose the picture in schools where the limitations and contradictions of the Brazilian educational system have appeared. Educational actors and authors are challenged to build knowledge able of responding to demands of daily school, concerning living and learning in diversity. Whereas this inclusive process is new in the schools, the study aimed to analyze the demands of teachers from the school inclusion. The research was qualitative and exploratory, and six teachers, their students with special educational needs and three professionals in the Nucleus of Inclusive Education from the Municipal Department of Education took in it. Technique of participant observation, field diary, semi-structured interview and questionnaire were used for data collection, while analysis of content was used for discussion of the data. The results indicate that there are achievements and contradictions in the reality of schools that themselves propose inclusive; advances and limitations resulting from the municipal politics; that the model of performance of the group of special education, in the context analyzed, may be revised or expanded; and that the teachers has demands with regard to public policy, training, and the psychologist.
Bhaskara Rao, B.; Rao, Gyaneshwar
Since the early 1970s, there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following [Amarawickrama, H.A., Hunt, L.C., 2008. Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Energy Economics 33, 724-739], this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these alternative techniques are very close, and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic.
Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)
As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)
Bhaskara Rao, B. [University of Western Sydney, Sydney1797 (Australia); Rao, Gyaneshwar [University of the South Pacific (Fiji)
Since the early 1970s, there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following [Amarawickrama, H.A., Hunt, L.C., 2008. Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Energy Economics 33, 724-739], this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these alternative techniques are very close, and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic. (author)
If economic agents have to determine in advance their supply or demand in reaction to different market prices we may assume that their strategic instruments are supply or demand functions. The best examples for such markets are the spot markets for electricity in England and Wales, in Chile, in New Zealand, in Scandinavia and perhaps elsewhere. A further example is computerized trading in stock markets, financial markets, or commodity exchanges. The functional form of equilibria is explicitly determined in this paper. Under a certain condition, equilibria exist for every finite spread of (stochastic) autonomous demand, i.e. demand from small, non-strategically acting consumers. Contrary to competition with supply functions alone, however, there is no tendency for market prices to converge to 0 if the spread of autonomous demand increases infinitely. Lower bounds of market prices can be computed instead
Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.
As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)
Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs
Marszal, Anna Joanna; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Larsen, Olena Kalyanova
Highlights •A 1-min resolution household electricity load model is presented. •Model adapts a bottom-up approach with single appliance as the main building block. •Load profiles are used to analyse the flexibility potential of household appliances. •Load profiles can be applied in other domains, .......g. building energy simulations. •The demand level of houses with different number of occupants is well captured....
The outlook for the European gas market is one of steady growth. This growth will manifest itself in all regions and in all sectors of the market, but most strongly in the power generating sector. To meet future demand, it is necessary to bring gas to Western Europe from remote sources in Russia, North Africa and Norway. These new gas supplies require heavy investments in production and transportation, which can only be undertaken on the basis of long-term take-or-pay contracts. Famous examples of such contracts are the development of the Troll field, the Yamal-Europe pipeline connection, and the bringing on stream of Nigerian LNG for Europe. Tensions are likely to arise between the nature of these long-term gas contracts and the dynamic nature of demand in the gas market, and more specifically in the main growth market, the power sector. The presentation further elaborates on the tensions underlying supply and demand in the years to come
Apart from a collapse of oil and gas consumption in the CIS, a strong increase in demand in the newly industrialized countries and an upward trend in the OECD countries are observed. Non-Opec supply continued to grow, with a production decline in Usa and Russia but a record production level in the North Sea and a remarkable revival in South America (Colombia, Argentina) and Africa (Congo, Angola). In Opec countries, the trend goes from supply control to development of production capacity. Situations in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are detailed
Supply of LPG is forecast to grow over the next decade from the present level of 180 million t/y to about 185-190 million t/y, depending on demand in Asia which is rising rapidly and on new LPG export projects. Most of the increase in supply will come from new gas and crude oil production, from new LPG ventures, and from refineries reducing the n-butane content of motor gasoline. Pricing will remain volatile as a result of crude oil price volatility, variations in the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere, and as result of competition between ethane, PPG, naphtha and condensate as ethylene cracker feedstocks. Demand for LPG in OECD countries will continue to show steady growth. The increase in demand will be more rapid in the relatively less developed OECD countries, as the trend in Spain has shown in recent years. Provided that the LPG price is competitive, demand in China, South-East Asia and the Indian sub-continent could grow beyond current projections. Consumption in these countries will depend on the installation of distribution facilities and the rate at which LPG can substitute for traditional fuels and kerosene as well as compete for limited disposable incomes. (author)
Dunn, Naomi; Williamson, Ann
Although monotony is widely recognised as being detrimental to performance, its occurrence and effects are not yet well understood. This is despite the fact that task-related characteristics, such as monotony and low task demand, have been shown to contribute to performance decrements over time. Participants completed one of two simulated train-driving scenarios. Both were highly monotonous and differed only in terms of the level of cognitive demand required (i.e. low demand or high demand). These results highlight the seriously detrimental effects of the combination of monotony and low task demands and clearly show that even a relatively minor increase in cognitive demand can mitigate adverse monotony-related effects on performance for extended periods of time. Monotony is an inherent characteristic of transport industries, including rail, aviation and road transport, which can have adverse impact on safety, reliability and efficiency. This study highlights possible strategies for mitigating these adverse effects. Practitioner Summary: This study provides evidence for the importance of cognitive demand in mitigating monotony-related effects on performance. The results have clear implications for the rapid onset of performance deterioration in low demand monotonous tasks and demonstrate that these detrimental performance effects can be overcome with simple solutions, such as making the task more cognitively engaging.
Macintosh, Andrew; Wallace, Lailey
International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses key trends in the industry since 1990, projects international civil aviation emissions to 2025 and analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416 Mt to between 876 and 1013 Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand
Lee, Jung Jeung; Park, Nam Hee; Lee, Kun Sei; Chee, Hyun Keun; Sim, Sung Bo; Kim, Myo Jeong; Choi, Ji Suk; Kim, Myunghwa; Park, Choon Seon
While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040-an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309-an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time, effort, and resources; therefore, by analyzing the various factors
Jung Jeung Lee
Full Text Available Background: While demand for cardiovascular surgery is expected to increase gradually along with the rapid increase in cardiovascular diseases with respect to the aging population, the supply of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeons has been continuously decreasing over the past 10 years. Consequently, this study aims to achieve guidance in establishing health care policy by analyzing the supply and demand for cardiovascular surgeries in the medical service area of Korea. Methods: After investigating the actual number of cardiovascular surgeries performed using the National Health Insurance claim data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, as well as drawing from national statistics concerning the elderly population aged 65 and over, this study estimated the number of future cardiovascular surgeries by using a cell-based model. To be able to analyze the supply and demand of surgeons, the recent status of new surgeons specializing in thoracic and cardiovascular surgeries and the ratio of their subspecialties in cardiovascular surgeries were investigated. Then, while taking three different scenarios into account, the number of cardiovascular surgeons expected be working in 5-year periods was projected. Results: The number of cardiovascular surgeries, which was recorded at 10,581 cases in 2014, is predicted to increase consistently to reach a demand of 15,501 cases in 2040—an increase of 46.5%. There was a total of 245 cardiovascular surgeons at work in 2014. Looking at 5 year spans in the future, the number of surgeons expected to be supplied in 2040 is 184, to retire is 249, and expected to be working is 309—an increase of -24.9%, 1.6%, and 26.1%, respectively compared to those in 2014. This forecasts a demand-supply imbalance in every scenario. Conclusion: Cardiovascular surgeons are the most central resource in the medical service of highly specialized cardiovascular surgeries, and fostering the surgeons requires much time
Over the course of this decade, the global LPG market has moved from being tight, where supply barely exceeded non-price sensitive demand, to the current market situation where supply growth has outstripped demand growth to such an extent that current fundamentals suggest that considerable length will prevail in the market over the near term. As is the case for many other energy commodity markets, the LPG industry has experienced a considerable transformation over the last five years with many new LPG supply projects coming on-stream and demand growth in many developing markets slowing in response to higher energy prices. The near term challenge for LPG producers will be securing outlets for output as the market becomes increasingly oversupplied. With expanding LPG supply and a worldwide tightness in the naphtha market, it is expected that petrochemical consumers will favor relatively low priced LPG over naphtha and the resulting increase in LPG cracking rates will go some way to reducing the expected supply surplus. However, the timing of several new LPG supply projects and the start-up of LPG-based petrochemical plants in the Middle-East are expected to impact global LPG trade and pricing over the next few years. Thus, at this point in time, the global LPG market has a high degree of uncertainty with questions remaining over the impact of high energy (and LPG) prices on traditional and developing market demand, the timing of new supply projects and the combined effect of these two factors on international LPG prices. World LPG production has been rising in nearly every region of the world over the last few years and totaled about 229 million tons in 2007, which is some 30 million tons per year higher than in 2000. The exception is North America which accounts for the largest share of global LPG supply at about 24% but production there has remained relatively flat in recent years. Strong LPG production growth in the Middle-East which contributed to about 19% of
Goldman, Charles; Reid, Michael; Levy, Roger; Silverstein, Alison
This paper reviews the relationship between energy efficiency and demand response and discusses approaches and barriers to coordinating energy efficiency and demand response. The paper is intended to support the 10 implementation goals of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency's Vision to achieve all cost-effective energy efficiency by 2025. Improving energy efficiency in our homes, businesses, schools, governments, and industries - which consume more than 70 percent of the nation's natural gas and electricity - is one of the most constructive, cost-effective ways to address the challenges of high energy prices, energy security and independence, air pollution, and global climate change. While energy efficiency is an increasingly prominent component of efforts to supply affordable, reliable, secure, and clean electric power, demand response is becoming a valuable tool in utility and regional resource plans. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) estimated the contribution from existing U.S. demand response resources at about 41,000 megawatts (MW), about 5.8 percent of 2008 summer peak demand (FERC, 2008). Moreover, FERC recently estimated nationwide achievable demand response potential at 138,000 MW (14 percent of peak demand) by 2019 (FERC, 2009).2 A recent Electric Power Research Institute study estimates that 'the combination of demand response and energy efficiency programs has the potential to reduce non-coincident summer peak demand by 157 GW' by 2030, or 14-20 percent below projected levels (EPRI, 2009a). This paper supports the Action Plan's effort to coordinate energy efficiency and demand response programs to maximize value to customers. For information on the full suite of policy and programmatic options for removing barriers to energy efficiency, see the Vision for 2025 and the various other Action Plan papers and guides available at www.epa.gov/eeactionplan.
Ilkka P. Laurila
Full Text Available The study was concerned with the estimation of food-demand parameters in a system context. The patterns of food consumption in Finland were presented over the period 1950-1991, and a complete demand system of food expenditures was estimated. Price and expenditure elasticities of demand were derived, and the results were used to obtain projections on future consumption. While the real expenditure on food has increased, the budget share of food has decreased. In the early 19505, combined Food-at-Home and Food-away-from-Home corresponded to about 40% of consumers’ total expenditure. In 1991 the share was 28%. There was a shift to meals eaten outside the home. While the budget share of Food-away-from-Home increased from 3% to 7% over the observation period, Food-at-Home fell from 37% to 21%, and Food-at-Home excluding Alcoholic Drinks fell from 34% to 16%. Within Food-at-Home, the budget shares of the broad aggregate groups, Animalia (food from animal sources, Beverages, and Vegetablia (food from vegetable sources, remained about the same over the four decades, while structural change took place within the aggregates. Within Animalia, consumption shifted from Dairy Products (other than Fresh Milk to Meat and Fish. Within Beverages, consumption shifted from Fresh Milk and Hot Drinks to Alcoholic Drinks and Soft Drinks. Within Vegetablia, consumption shifted from Flour to Fruits, while the shares of Bread and Cake and Vegetables remained about the same. As the complete demand system, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS was employed. The conventional AIDS was extended by developing a dynamic generalisation of the model and allowing for systematic shifts in structural relationships over time. A four-stage budgeting system was specified, consisting of seven sub-systems (groups, and covering 18 food categories. Tests on parameter restrictions and misspecification tests were used to choose the most preferred model specification for each group. Generally
Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick; Hovgesen, Henrik Harder; Lahrmann, Harry
a long screenline is used to measure the development in aggregate demand in selected corridors. The paper analyses demand induction by establishing time series of aggregate demand that is compared with the national traffic index. Significant trend breaks in the association between aggregate demand...... in the corridors and the national index, following the opening of motorways or bridges, indicates demand induction by infrastructure expansion in a number of instances. Lack of significant trend breaks following opening year is found in peripheral areas where major population centres are missing. This indicates...... the necessity of some latent demand within suitable travel range for new infrastructure elements to produce significant amounts of induced demand. Estimates of demand induction as a percentage of the realised demand five years after opening are between 10% and 67% for new motorway sections depending...
An acute injection of corticosterone increases thyrotrophin-releasing hormone expression in the paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus but interferes with the rapid hypothalamus pituitary thyroid axis response to cold in male rats.
Sotelo-Rivera, I; Jaimes-Hoy, L; Cote-Vélez, A; Espinoza-Ayala, C; Charli, J-L; Joseph-Bravo, P
The activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis is rapidly adjusted by energy balance alterations. Glucocorticoids can interfere with this activity, although the timing of this interaction is unknown. In vitro studies indicate that, albeit incubation with either glucocorticoid receptor (GR) agonists or protein kinase A (PKA) activators enhances pro-thyrotrophin-releasing hormone (pro-TRH) transcription, co-incubation with both stimuli reduces this enhancement. In the present study, we used primary cultures of hypothalamic cells to test whether the order of these stimuli alters the cross-talk. We observed that a simultaneous or 1-h prior (but not later) activation of GR is necessary to inhibit the stimulatory effect of PKA activation on pro-TRH expression. We tested these in vitro results in the context of a physiological stimulus on the HPT axis in adult male rats. Cold exposure for 1 h enhanced pro-TRH mRNA expression in neurones of the hypophysiotrophic and rostral subdivisions of the paraventricular nucleus (PVN) of the hypothalamus, thyrotrophin (TSH) serum levels and deiodinase 2 (D2) activity in brown adipose tissue (BAT). An i.p. injection of corticosterone stimulated pro-TRH expression in the PVN of rats kept at ambient temperature, more pronouncedly in hypophysiotrophic neurones that no longer responded to cold exposure. In corticosterone-pretreated rats, the cold-induced increase in pro-TRH expression was detected only in the rostral PVN. Corticosterone blunted the increase in serum TSH levels and D2 activity in BAT produced by cold in vehicle-injected animals. Thus, increased serum corticosterone levels rapidly restrain cold stress-induced activation of TRH hypophysiotrophic neurones, which may contribute to changing energy expenditure. Interestingly, TRH neurones of the rostral PVN responded to both corticosterone and cold exposure with an amplified expression of pro-TRH mRNA, suggesting that these neurones integrate stress and temperature
Laursen, Paul B.
The rise in worldwide popularity of long distance triathlon racing comes with it an increased interest into how to train and prepare optimally for such an event. This paper examines the physiologic and bioenergetic demands of long distance triathlon racing, including energy requirements, muscle damage consequences, thermoregulatory demands and water turnover rates. In response to these physiological challenges, the second part of the paper describes the training goals and race practices that ...
Maldonado, Norman; Llorente, Blanca; Deaza, Javier
Estimate price and income elasticities of aggregate demand for cigarettes in Colombia, by controlling for structural market changes since the late 1990s, to identify policy opportunities for taxes that could improve public health and increase tax revenues. Measurement of aggregate demand for cigarettes using gross income reported on value-added tax returns submitted to Colombia's National Tax and Customs Office (DIAN is the acronym in Spanish) by the tobacco product manufacturing industry, subtracting exports. A quarterly time series was obtained for the period 1994-2014. The econometric estimation using two-stage least squares controls for price endogeneity and uses a set of dummy variables to control for structural changes in the market and in its regulation. Demand is, from a statistical standpoint, sensitive to price and to income. Price elasticity of demand is -0.78 and income elasticity is 0.61. Inelastic demand implies that it is possible, through cigarette excise taxes, to meet public health targets and increase revenues simultaneously. The results also suggest that the considerable increase in household income in Colombia in the first decade of the 21st century increased purchasing power, which, lacking an accompanying tax increase, promoted cigarette consumption, with negative effects on public health, and wasted an opportunity to increase tax revenues.
Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy
Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.
Escudero, José Antonio; Loot, Céline; Nivina, Aleksandra; Mazel, Didier
The integron is a powerful system which, by capturing, stockpiling, and rearranging new functions carried by gene encoding cassettes, confers upon bacteria a rapid adaptation capability in changing environments. Chromosomally located integrons (CI) have been identified in a large number of environmental Gram-negative bacteria. Integron evolutionary history suggests that these sedentary CIs acquired mobility among bacterial species through their association with transposable elements and conjugative plasmids. As a result of massive antibiotic use, these so-called mobile integrons are now widespread in clinically relevant bacteria and are considered to be the principal agent in the emergence and rise of antibiotic multiresistance in Gram-negative bacteria. Cassette rearrangements are catalyzed by the integron integrase, a site-specific tyrosine recombinase. Central to these reactions is the single-stranded DNA nature of one of the recombination partners, the attC site. This makes the integron a unique recombination system. This review describes the current knowledge on this atypical recombination mechanism, its implications in the reactions involving the different types of sites, attC and attI, and focuses on the tight regulation exerted by the host on integron activity through the control of attC site folding. Furthermore, cassette and integrase expression are also highly controlled by host regulatory networks and the bacterial stress (SOS) response. These intimate connections to the host make the integron a genetically stable and efficient system, granting the bacteria a low cost, highly adaptive evolution potential "on demand".
As Japan goes--so goes the world. That was the title of a recent lead article in The Economist that soberly discussed the potential of much more severe global economic problems occurring, if rapid and coordinated efforts were not made to stabilize the economic situation in Asia in general, and in Japan in particular. During the first 6 months of last year, commodity markets reacted violently to the spreading economic problems in Asia. More recent currency and financial problems in Russia have exacerbated an already unpleasant situation. One commodity after another--including oil, many of the agricultural commodities, and each of the base metals--have dropped sharply in price. Many are now trading at multiyear lows. Until there is an overall improvement in the outlook for these regions, sentiment will likely continue to be negative, and metals prices will remain under pressure. That being said, lead has maintained its value better than many other commodities during these difficult times, finding support in relatively strong fundamentals. The author takes a closer look at those supply and demand fundamentals, beginning with consumption
Full Text Available Due to the rapid increase in global competition among organizations and companies, rational approaches in decision making have become indispensable for organizations in today’s world. Establishing a safe and robust path through uncertainties and risks depends on the decision units’ ability of using scientific methods as well as technology. Demand forecasting is known to be one of the most critical problems in organizations. A company which supports its demand forecasting mechanism with scientific methodologies could increase its productivity and efficiency in all other functions. New methods, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks are frequently being used as a decision-making mechanism in organizations and companies recently. In this study, it is aimed to solve a critical demand forecasting problem with ANFIS. In the first phase of the study, the factors which impact demand forecasting are determined, and then a database of the model is established using these factors. It has been shown that ANFIS could be used for demand forecasting.
Waters, Elzberry, Jr.
This study investigated the feasibility of applying economic demand analysis (especially elasticity of demand) in marketing George Washington University off-campus degree programs. In the case under study, a supplemental budget request had to be submitted to meet expenses incurred by an unforeseen increase in demand for graduate and undergraduate…
Khodayar, Mohammad E.; Wu, Hongyu
Demand forecasting faces challenges that include a large volume of data, increasing number of factors that affect the demand profile, uncertainties in the generation profile of the distributed and renewable generation resources and lack of historical data. A hierarchical demand forecasting framework can incorporate the new technologies, customer behaviors and preferences, and environmental factors.
Ulmer, Jeffrey B; Mansoura, Monique K; Geall, Andrew J
Self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are being developed as a platform technology with potential to be used for a broad range of targets. The synthetic production methods for their manufacture, combined with the modern tools of bioinformatics and synthetic biology, enable these vaccines to be produced rapidly from an electronic gene sequence. Preclinical proof of concept has so far been achieved for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rabies, Ebola, cytomegalovirus, human immunodeficiency virus and malaria. This editorial highlights the key milestones in the discovery and development of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines, and reviews how they might be used as a rapid response platform. The paper points out how future improvements in RNA vector design and non-viral delivery may lead to decreases in effective dose and increases in production capacity. The prospects for non-viral delivery of self-amplifying mRNA vaccines are very promising. Like other types of nucleic acid vaccines, these vaccines have the potential to draw on the positive attributes of live-attenuated vaccines while obviating many potential safety limitations. Hence, this approach could enable the concept of vaccines on demand as a rapid response to a real threat rather than the deployment of strategic stockpiles based on epidemiological predictions for possible threats.
Vistisen, Peter; Jensen, Thessa; Poulsen, Søren Bolvig
This paper addresses the challenge of attaining ethical user stances during the design process of products and services and proposes animation-based sketching as a design method, which supports elaborating and examining different ethical stances towards the user. The discussion is qualified...... by an empirical study of Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) in a Triple Helix constellation. Using a three-week long innovation workshop, U- CrAc, involving 16 Danish companies and organisations and 142 students as empirical data, we discuss how animation-based sketching can explore not yet existing user...... dispositions, as well as create an incentive for ethical conduct in development and innovation processes. The ethical fulcrum evolves around Løgstrup’s Ethical Demand and his notion of spontaneous life manifestations. From this, three ethical stances are developed; apathy, sympathy and empathy. By exploring...
Bjørkedal, S T B; Torsting, A M B; Møller, T
in a logbook. The Canadian Occupational Performance Measure was used to initiate and guide the intervention and the Canadian Model of Client-Centred Enablement for the client-therapist relationship. RESULTS: Participants described the intervention, which presupposed a certain level of patient readiness...... design comprising an eight-week client-centred occupational therapy intervention with semi-structured interviews with five of the six clients out of 10 who completed the intervention. Braun and Clark's thematic analysis was applied to the transcripts. Adherence rate and dropouts were recorded......, as demanding. Participants valued engaging in real-life occupations while anchoring new strategies but also the occupational therapist's role in dealing with failure. Participants felt the intervention assisted in their recovery process and enabled them to engage in meaningful occupations. CONCLUSION...
Malzacher, Peter; Manafov, Anar
PROOF on Demand (PoD) is a set of utilities, which allows starting a PROOF cluster at user request, on any resource management system. It provides a plug-in based system, which allows to use different job submission frontends, such as LSF or gLite WMS. Main components of PoD are the PROOFAgent and the PAConsole. PROOFAgent provides the communication layer between the PROOF master on the local machine and the PROOF workers on the remote resources, possibly behind a firewall. PAConsole provides a user-friendly GUI, which is used to setup, manage, and shutdown the dynamic PROOF cluster. Installation is simple and doesn't require administrator privileges, and all the processes run in user space. PoD gives users, who don't have a centrally-administrated static PROOF cluster at their institute, the possibility to enjoy the full power of interactive analysis with PROOF.
Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van
In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change
Our society derives a quantifiable benefit from electric power. In particular, forced outages or blackouts have enormous consequences on society, one of which is loss of economic surplus. The society relies on having a continuous supply of electrical energy. Some customers may willingly risk this continuous supply and participate in demand management programs for electrical power. If the power system grid is in trouble, electric utilities need to have demand relief. Customers willing to reduce their demand to help the system can receive an incentive fee for helping the utilities. Demand relief can be system wide or location specific. Sometimes it can be more effective to fix the electrical demand vs. supply imbalance from the demand side. The value of demand management contracts is greatly affected by customer location. Inclusion of locational attributes into the contract design procedure increases the effectiveness of the contracts by helping a utility get more value from its demand management programs. Independent System Operators and regulators, among others, can also benefit from effective demand management. This paper will investigate how this type of demand management contracts can help the electricity sector both in regulated and deregulated environments. - Highlights: • Demand management can help prevent forced electricity outages. • Both electric utilities and ISOs can use demand management. • Regulated and deregulated electricity sectors can benefit from demand management. • Demand management contracts can be effectively used in power system grids.
Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Verbic, Gregor; Hill, David J.
With the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) in future grids (FGs), balancing between supply and demand will become more dependent on demand response (DR) and energy storage. Thus, FG feasibility studies will need to consider DR for modelling nett future demand. Against this backdrop, this paper proposes a demand model which integrates the aggregated effect of DR in a simplified representation of the effect of market/dispatch processes aiming at minimising th...
By using IT-solutions, the flexibility on the demand side in the electrical systems could be increased. This is called demand response and is part of the larger concept called smart grids. Previous work in this area has concerned the utilization of demand response by grid owners. In this thesis the focus will instead be shifted towards the electrical companies that have balance responsibility, and how they could use demand response in order to make profits. By investigating electrical applian...
Nagbe , Komi; Cugliari , Jairo; Jacques , Julien
In the last past years the liberalization of the electricity supply, the increase variability of electric appliances and their use, and the need to respond to the electricity demand in the real time had made electricity demand forecasting a challenge. To this challenge, many solutions are being proposed. The electricity demand involves many sources such as economic activities, household need and weather sources. All this sources make hard electricity demand forecasting. To forecast the electr...
Ma, Ookie; Cheung, Kerry; Olsen, Daniel J.; Matson, Nance; Sohn, Michael D.; Rose, Cody M.; Dudley, Junqiao Han; Goli, Sasank; Kiliccote, Sila; Cappers, Peter; MacDonald, Jason; Denholm, Paul; Hummon, Marissa; Jorgenson, Jennie; Palchak, David; Starke, Michael; Alkadi, Nasr; Bhatnagar, Dhruv; Currier, Aileen; Hernandez, Jaci; Kirby, Brendan; O' Malley, Mark
Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational value in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.
Full Text Available Research and technology in wireless communication systems such as radar and cellular networks have successfully implemented alternative design approaches that utilize antenna array techniques such as optimum combining, to mitigate the degradation effects of multipath in rapid fading channels. In ad hoc networks, these methods have not yet been exploited primarily due to the complexity inherent in the network's architecture. With the high demand for improved signal link quality, devices configured with omnidirectional antennas can no longer meet the growing need for link quality and spectrum efficiency. This study takes an empirical approach to determine an optimum combining antenna array based on 3 variants of interelement spacing. For rapid fading channels, the simulation results show that the performance in the network of devices retrofitted with our antenna arrays consistently exceeded those with an omnidirectional antenna. Further, with the optimum combiner, the performance increased by over 60% compared to that of an omnidirectional antenna in a rapid fading channel.
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OWL) Refinery Yield Model (RYM) has been used to estimate the demand for ethanol in U.S. gasoline production in year 2010. Study cases examine ethanol demand with variations in world oil price, cost of competing oxygenate, ethanol value, and gasoline specifications. For combined-regions outside California summer ethanol demand is dominated by conventional gasoline (CG) because the premised share of reformulated gasoline (RFG) production is relatively low and because CG offers greater flexibility for blending high vapor pressure components like ethanol. Vapor pressure advantages disappear for winter CG, but total ethanol used in winter RFG remains low because of the low RFG production share. In California, relatively less ethanol is used in CG because the RFG production share is very high. During the winter in California, there is a significant increase in use of ethanol in RFG, as ethanol displaces lower-vapor-pressure ethers. Estimated U.S. ethanol demand is a function of the refiner value of ethanol. For example, ethanol demand for reference conditions in year 2010 is 2 billion gallons per year (BGY) at a refiner value of $1.00 per gallon (1996 dollars), and 9 BGY at a refiner value of $0.60 per gallon. Ethanol demand could be increased with higher oil prices, or by changes in gasoline specifications for oxygen content, sulfur content, emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCS), and octane numbers.
With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry - the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors - is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The 'Red Book', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23. edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres around the world, as well as from countries developing production centres for the first time. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2035 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues
Electricity demand has been the fastest growing form of energy use in the OECD for several decades. Historically there have been strong links between national income (gross domestic product), prices and electricity use. If the trends of the past continue, the annual growth rate of electricity demand to 2020 could reach 2% in the OECD and over 4% in developing countries. Although electricity demand is expected to continue the trend of strong growth in the OECD and also in other regions of the world over the coming decades, there is some question in developed countries of the extent to which electricity demand will be moderated by '' saturation ''. That is, will demand growth level off as electricity completes its penetration into most potential applications and equipment becomes more energy efficient? Will commitments to reduce emissions of conventional airborne pollutants and carbon dioxide increase the cost of electricity generation and slow electricity's demand growth? Or, working in the opposite direction, will new end-uses continue to drive electricity's increasing share of final energy consumption? Will lower prices due to electricity market reform have an impact? This paper explores these issues and provides insights in the likely trends in these areas. (author)
Koljonen, Tiina; Lehtilä, Antti
Energy consumption in residential, commercial and transport sectors have been growing rapidly in the non-OECD Asian countries over the last decades, and the trend is expected to continue over the coming decades as well. However, the per capita projections for energy demand in these particular sectors often seem to be very low compared to the OECD average until 2050, and it is clear that the scenario assessments of final energy demands in these sectors include large uncertainties. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis have been carried out to study the impact of higher rates of energy demand growths in the non-OECD Asia on global mitigation costs. The long term energy and emission scenarios for China, India and South-East Asia have been contributed as a part of Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). The scenarios presented have been modeled by using a global TIMES-VTT energy system model, which is based on the IEA-ETSAP TIMES energy system modeling framework and the global ETSAP-TIAM model. Our scenario results indicate that the impacts of accelerated energy demand in the non-OECD Asia has a relatively small impact on the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas abatement. However, with the accelerated demand projections, the average per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the OECD were decreased while China, India, and South-East Asia increased their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This indicates that the costs of the greenhouse gas abatement would especially increase in the OECD region, if developing Asian countries increase their final energy consumption more rapidly than expected. - Highlights: ► Scenarios of final energy demands in developing Asia include large uncertainties. ► Impact of accelerated Asian energy demand on global mitigation costs is quite low. ► Accelerated Asian energy consumption increases GHG abatement costs in the OECD. ► 3.7 W/m 3 target is feasible in costs even with accelerated Asian energy demands. ► 2.6 W/m 2 target is beyond
This paper looks at the economy-wide demand and the firm level demand for electricity in Pakistan. The economy wide estimation of electricity demand uses panel data from 63 countries from 1998-2008, and finds that the elasticity of demand for electricity with respect to per capita income is approximately 0.69, which implies that a 1% increase in per capita income will lead to a 0.69% increase in the demand for electricity. The firm level analysis uses firm level data from the World Bank’s Ent...
Under the series of Korean Government 5 year economic development plans since 1962, energy consumption in Korea has increased at a rapid pace and industrialization in Korea has been accelerated. As far as coal imports are concerned, coking coal was first imported to Korea in the early 1970s for the first steelworks. Little interest was shown in steaming coal until the early 1970s owing to the cheaper imported oil. People became interested in steaming coal after the first oil crisis in 1973 and import began in 1980 for cement and other industrial uses. In general, electricity demand is increasing far more rapidly than energy consumption. The initial construction of two 560 megawatt power plants using bituminous coal began in 1978 and was completed in 1982. The maiden cargo of bituminous coal for power generation arrived in Korea that year and coal import has been increasing at a rapid rate since then to keep pace with increased consumption. As there are no indigenous bituminous coal resources in Korea and we must depend entirely on overseas coal for our needs to fuel power plants, stable securing of coal is very important. This paper explains the current status and prospects for KEPCOs (Korean Electric Power Corporation) coal demand and supply
Recent fluctuations in the market price for uranium have resulted in more activity in this sector over the past few years than in the preceding 20 years. Amidst this background, uranium demand is increasing. Construction of nuclear reactors is proceeding in some countries, ambitious expansion plans have been announced in others and the development of nuclear power programs to meet electricity demand and minimize greenhouse emissions in a cost effective manner is under consideration in many others. This paper reviews projections of nuclear growth and uranium demand and assesses the challenges faced by the uranium mining sector in meeting rising demand. Since the mid-1960 s, an international expert committee (the 'Uranium Group') formed by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency has published biennially comprehensive updates on global uranium resources, production and demand (the 'Red Book'). The most recent in this series, based on 2007 data and published in June 2008, includes a supply/demand projection to 2030. However, much has changed since the data were collected for this projection and an assessment of these changes and their impact on uranium production is included in this presentation. It is concluded that world identified uranium resources (5.45 million t U recoverable at costs up to US$130/kg U, or US$50/lb U 3 O 8 ) are adequate to meet projected future high case nuclear power requirements. However, recent financial market turmoil and lower uranium prices, the opaque nature of the uranium market itself, increased regulatory requirements, a scarcity of the required specialized labour and the fluctuating costs of raw materials makes the process of turning uranium resources in the ground into yellowcake in the can increasingly more challenging, particularly for new entrants. Considerable investment and expertise will be required to bring about the substantial increase in mine production required to meet future demand
Worrell, Ernst; Carreon, Jesus Rosales
Materials are everywhere and have determined society. The rapid increase in consumption of materials has led to an increase in the use of energy and release of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing emissions in material-producing industries is a key challenge. If all of industry switched to current best practices, the energy-efficiency improvement potential would be between 20% and 35% for most sectors. While these are considerable potentials, especially for sectors that have historically paid a lot of attention to energy-efficiency improvement, realization of these potentials under current 'business as usual' conditions is slow due to a large variety of barriers and limited efforts by industry and governments around the world. Importantly, the potentials are not sufficient to achieve the deep reductions in carbon emissions that will be necessary to stay within the climate boundaries as agreed in the 2015 Paris Conference of Parties. Other opportunities need to be included in the menu of options to mitigate GHG emissions. It is essential to develop integrated policies combining energy efficiency, renewable energy and material efficiency and material demand reduction, offering the most economically attractive way to realize deep reductions in carbon emissions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Author(s).
El kafazi, I.; Bannari, R.; Aboutafail, My. O.
Energy is crucial for human life, a secure and accessible supply of power is essential for the sustainability of societies. Economic development and demographic progression increase energy demand, prompting countries to conduct research and studies on energy demand and production. Although, increasing in energy demand in the future requires a correct determination of the amount of energy supplied. Our article studies the impact of demand on energy production to find the relationship between the two latter and managing properly the production between the different energy sources. Historical data of demand and energy production since 2000 are used. The data are processed by the regression model to study the impact of demand on production. The obtained results indicate that demand has a positive and significant impact on production (high impact). Production is also increasing but at a slower pace. In this work, Morocco is considered as a case study.
Mogasale, Vittal; Ramani, Enusa; Park, Il Yeon; Lee, Jung Seok
A Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) is expected to acquire WHO prequalification soon, which will pave the way for its use in many low- and middle-income countries where typhoid fever is endemic. Thus it is critical to forecast future vaccine demand to ensure supply meets demand, and to facilitate vaccine policy and introduction planning. We forecasted introduction dates for countries based on specific criteria and estimated vaccine demand by year for defined vaccination strategies in 2 scenarios: rapid vaccine introduction and slow vaccine introduction. In the rapid introduction scenario, we forecasted 17 countries and India introducing TCV in the first 5 y of the vaccine's availability while in the slow introduction scenario we forecasted 4 countries and India introducing TCV in the same time period. If the vaccine is targeting infants in high-risk populations as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand peaks around 40 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. Similarly, if the vaccine is targeting infants in the general population as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand increases to 160 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. The demand forecast projected here is an upper bound estimate of vaccine demand, where actual demand depends on various factors such as country priorities, actual vaccine introduction, vaccination strategies, Gavi financing, costs, and overall product profile. Considering the potential role of TCV in typhoid control globally; manufacturers, policymakers, donors and financing bodies should work together to ensure vaccine access through sufficient production capacity, early WHO prequalification of the vaccine, continued Gavi financing and supportive policy.
Curreri, Peter A.; Nall, Mark
The cost of energy is humanity's economic exchange rate with the universe. Space solar power is the first great step that our technological species has to utilize the energy of its star. The classic Peter Glaser Solar Power Satellite, SPS, and later designs collect a large area of solar energy in space and beam it back to Earth for use in the electric grid, but even with optimistic launch costs and technology innovation a clear economic path is not evident using Earth launch of SPS. O Neill in 1969 solved the transportation costs problem by a model that uses lunar and asteroid materials to build SPS and locates the labor force permanently in space (O Neill free space habitats). This solution closes the economics and predicts large profits after 17-35 years. However the costs of time have up to now prevented this solution. We discuss a strategy to move forward in SPS with the motivations to stop global warming and prevent human selfextinction. There are near term steps that can be taken that place us on this path forward. First, we must reevaluate the technologies for the classic model and update the parameters to current technology. As technological capability continues to increase exponentially, we need to understand when the monetary potential energy hills are small as the technology gets larger. But the chance for self-extinction, if humanity remains in a single vulnerable habitat, also increased exponentially with time. The path forward is to identify investment points while assessing the risks of non-action.
Wolverine is a metallurgical coal mining project located in British Columbia (BC). The Wolverine project is owned by Western, who is currently expanding the project by developing an open pit mine property with a reserve of 18 million tonnes located close to its current mine. The company has purchased several new trucks, front shovel loaders, and blasthole drills, and is now shifting over 65,000 bank cubic meters (BCM) per day. Western is also planning to develop an underground mine in the region. The company has formed contracts and business relationships with several smaller companies in order to allow for more rapid startups of its mining operations. However, the company's expansion has been impeded by shortages in qualified mining personnel. The Wolverine project had been engaged in long-term contracts with the Japanese steel industry. Western has now established a number of relationships with clients in Europe, China, and South Korea. 3 figs.
For a number of years, homeownership rates have been increasing along with increasing GDP per capita in most European countries, but not in Denmark after 2000. Why have increased real incomes kept the demand for rental housing up in Denmark? The present paper takes a closer look at the Danish dev...... traits found on the Danish housing market and the technique employed for prediction are of interest to housing researchers in other countries.......For a number of years, homeownership rates have been increasing along with increasing GDP per capita in most European countries, but not in Denmark after 2000. Why have increased real incomes kept the demand for rental housing up in Denmark? The present paper takes a closer look at the Danish...... development, and gives some indications of the future demand for rental housing in Denmark. The results indicate a future stagnant rental demand kept up by an increasing share of persons of old age and young persons undergoing education, and thus a rising homeownership rate. It is believed that the structural...
Delfini, M.G.; Leenhouts, H.P.
In the framework of the Environment Quality Requirements (MKE) project a model has been designed in which environment-quality demands have been defined and quantified, and a measuring strategy has been developed. In the model it is required for the quality of the environment that the radionuclide concentration in the various environment compartiments remains limited in order to keep the effective dose equivalence for the 'reference man' under a certain reference level. In order to be able to determine the maximum nuclide concentration it is necessary to quantify the relation between the concentration in the environment and the dose for the people. The quantitative relation between concentration and dose has been established on the base of parameters (Derived Activity Limits (DAL's) which have to be calculated for each environment compartiment, each nuclide and each exposure pathway. This model has been described and, as example, the DAL's have been calculated for the compartiment air (for which the two exposure pathways inhalation and direct radiation were considered). For the other environment compartiments a similar elaboration is needed. The feasibility of application of the MKE-model in the actual practice of measurements in the environment and examination of dose for the population depends upon the possibility for performing nuclide specific measurements in all environment compartiments, the level of the dose resulting from the contamination of the environment and the related accurateness of the measurements
Roy Carr-Hill; Gillian Dalley
The twelve years preceding the introduction of the community care reforms in 1993/4 saw an increased demand for health and social services generated by the increase in numbers of older people (particularly the over 85s) and reflected in the rapid growth of residential and nursing home places over a twelve year period (from 224,000 in 1983 to 427,000 in 1994). While the move into the residential and nursing home sector was partly driven by the perverse incentives offered by social security in ...
Demand for electricity continues to increase in the midst of environmental concerns, deregulation and the rapid evolution of technology. In order to succeed in a changing environment, utilities must be both adaptive and innovative. Growing concerns over supply and the environmental effects of rising consumption rates have led many utilities to establish demand side management (DSM) programs. However, some utilities have failed to consider the importance of customer behaviour in the success of DSM programs. This conference examined various successful initiatives to encourage customers to reduce their individual or corporate demands for energy. The influence of branding, technology, information prices signals and various other strategies were explored. Issues concerning energy efficiency and customer feedback were discussed. The effect of alternative pricing regimes on DSM programs was investigated. Various information system tools were also examined, and the value of real time electricity monitoring was evaluated. Various DSM initiatives in North America were used to establish benchmarks for the successful implementation of DSM strategies. The conference was divided into 3 sessions: (1) involving the customer in reducing demand; (2) the success of energy efficiency and demand response programs : the impact of branding and the impact of price signals; and (3) the technologies and innovations needed to make it work. The conference featured 13 presentations, of which 8 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs
Demand for electricity continues to increase in the midst of environmental concerns, deregulation and the rapid evolution of technology. In order to succeed in a changing environment, utilities must be both adaptive and innovative. Growing concerns over supply and the environmental effects of rising consumption rates have led many utilities to establish demand side management (DSM) programs. However, some utilities have failed to consider the importance of customer behaviour in the success of DSM programs. This conference examined various successful initiatives to encourage customers to reduce their individual or corporate demands for energy. The influence of branding, technology, information prices signals and various other strategies were explored. Issues concerning energy efficiency and customer feedback were discussed. The effect of alternative pricing regimes on DSM programs was investigated. Various information system tools were also examined, and the value of real time electricity monitoring was evaluated. Various DSM initiatives in North America were used to establish benchmarks for the successful implementation of DSM strategies. The conference was divided into 3 sessions: (1) involving the customer in reducing demand; (2) the success of energy efficiency and demand response programs : the impact of branding and the impact of price signals; and (3) the technologies and innovations needed to make it work. The conference featured 13 presentations, of which 8 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs.
Owen, Shaun M; Venter, Rachel E; du Toit, Stephan; Kraak, Wilbur J
The match-play demands of rugby union have increased over time, and these demands should be quantified so as to provide a basis for optimal player loading during training. The primary aim of this article was to quantify accelerations, decelerations, impacts and aggregated body demands during the first half of match-play in a Super Rugby team. The secondary aim was to determine whether these characteristics are position-specific. Thirty-three players were monitored for 14 matches using global positioning system units with inbuilt microtechnology. Players were grouped according to positional roles and data were analysed for those who completed the entire duration of the first half of a given match. Forwards sustained more (d = 0.44) high-intensity impacts and greater (d = 0.26) aggregated body demands, while backs had more moderate (d = 0.55) and heavy accelerations (d = 0.76), and moderate (d = 0.23) and heavy decelerations (d = 0.54). These differences suggest that conditioning and recovery strategies should reflect the physical demands placed on players in different playing positions. Forwards should be conditioned with a focus on impacts and require longer recovery for the same duration of playing time, whereas conditioning for backs should emphasise rapid accelerations and decelerations.
Yan Xiaoyu; Crookes, Roy J.
Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the 'Best Case' scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated
Full Text Available The Chinese retail industry is expected to grow dramatically over the next few years, owing to the rapid increase in purchasing power of Chinese consumers. Retail managers should analyze the market demands and avoid dull sales to promote the sustainable development of the retail industry. Economic sustainability in the retail industry, which refers to a suitable return of investment, requires the implementation of precise product allocation strategies in different regions. This study proposed a hybrid model to evaluate economic sustainability in the preparation of goods of retail shops on the basis of market demand evaluation. Through a grid-based convolutional neural network, a regression model was first established to model the relationship between consumer distribution and the potential market demand. Then, another model was proposed to evaluate the sustainability among regions based on their supply-demand analysis. An experiment was conducted based on the actual sales data of retail shops in Guiyang, China. Results showed an immense diversity of sustainability in the entire city and three classes of regions were distinguished, namely, high, moderate, and limited. Our model was proven to be effective in the sustainability evaluation of supply and demand in the retail industry after validation showed that its accuracy reached 92.8%.
In the empirical modelling of demands and labour supply we often lack data on a full set of goods. The usual response is to invoke separability assumptions. Here we present an alternative based on modelling demands as a function of prices and the quantity of a reference good rather than total expenditure. We term such demands m-demands. The advantage of this approach is that we make maximum use of the data to hand without invoking implausible separability assumptions. In the theory section qu...
Moore, Alvon, E-mail: email@example.com [Economist, Central Bank of Barbados, Toms Adams Financial Centre, Bridgetown (Barbados)
The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: > Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). > The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. > As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. > Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. > Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.
The importation of oil is a significant component of Barbados' imports, rising from 7% of imports in 1998 to over 20% in 2009. This increase has impacted greatly on the level of foreign reserves. As a price-taker, relying entirely on imported oil for our energy needs could prove a continuous drain on the economy. With a view to formulating an appropriate energy policy for Barbados, this paper analyses the demand for oil using monthly data from 1998 to 2009. The paper estimates the elasticities of demand for oil by employing single equation cointegration approach and comparing the results with countries that rely heavily on imported oil and whose policy objective are to alter their energy structure to rely less on imported oil. The results show that the demand for oil imports is price inelastic in the long run. The consumption of oil is responsive to past consumption, prices, income, electricity consumption and the number of appliances imported in the short-run. A policy framework to reduce the use of oil for electricity consumption via alternative energy sources should be considered and the taxation of oil imports given its elasticity is a good source of revenue. - Highlights: → Demand for oil is price inelastic in the long-run (-0.552). → The relationship between oil demand and income is insignificant in the long run. → As electricity consumption increases by 1%, the demand for oil rises by 1.43%. → Need to determine if investments in alternative sources can offset demand for oil. → Investment in alternative resources may be required before gains are realised.
Scott, Doug [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Castillo, Rafael [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Larson, Kyle [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Dobbs, Brian [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
This guide summarizes demand response measures that can be implemented in refrigerated warehouses. In an appendix, it also addresses related energy efficiency opportunities. Reducing overall grid demand during peak periods and energy consumption has benefits for facility operators, grid operators, utility companies, and society. State wide demand response potential for the refrigerated warehouse sector in California is estimated to be over 22.1 Megawatts. Two categories of demand response strategies are described in this guide: load shifting and load shedding. Load shifting can be accomplished via pre-cooling, capacity limiting, and battery charger load management. Load shedding can be achieved by lighting reduction, demand defrost and defrost termination, infiltration reduction, and shutting down miscellaneous equipment. Estimation of the costs and benefits of demand response participation yields simple payback periods of 2-4 years. To improve demand response performance, it’s suggested to install air curtains and another form of infiltration barrier, such as a rollup door, for the passageways. Further modifications to increase efficiency of the refrigeration unit are also analyzed. A larger condenser can maintain the minimum saturated condensing temperature (SCT) for more hours of the day. Lowering the SCT reduces the compressor lift, which results in an overall increase in refrigeration system capacity and energy efficiency. Another way of saving energy in refrigerated warehouses is eliminating the use of under-floor resistance heaters. A more energy efficient alternative to resistance heaters is to utilize the heat that is being rejected from the condenser through a heat exchanger. These energy efficiency measures improve efficiency either by reducing the required electric energy input for the refrigeration system, by helping to curtail the refrigeration load on the system, or by reducing both the load and required energy input.
Henry, E W
The framework of the Base Case and the High Case for 1990 for Ireland, related to the demand modules of the medium-term European Communities (EC) Energy Model, is described. The modules are: Multi-national Macre-economic Module (EURECA); National Input-Output Model (EXPLOR); and National Energy Demand Model (EDM). The final results of the EXPLOR and EDM are described; one set related to the Base Case and the other related to the High Case. The forecast or projection is termed Base Case because oil prices are assumed to increase with general price inflation, at the same rate. The other forecast is termed High Case because oil prices are assumed to increase at 5% per year more rapidly than general price inflation. The EXPLOR-EDM methodology is described. The lack of data on energy price elasticities for Ireland is noted. A comparison of the Base Case with the High Case is made. (MCW)
Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei
It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...
Bakker, Arnold; Demerouti, Eva
markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker & Demerouti, 2007; Demerouti, Bakker, Nachreiner, & Schaufeli, 2001) and is inspired by job design and job stress theories. JD-R theory explains how job demands and resources have unique and multiplicative e...
Knapp, Katherine K; Shah, Bijal M; Barnett, Mitchell J
To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.
Zeng, Bo; Li, Chuan
Reasonably forecasting demands of natural gas in China is of significance as it could aid Chinese government in formulating energy policies and adjusting industrial structures. To this end, a self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model is proposed in this paper. Compared with conventional grey models which have the inherent drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability, the proposed new model can automatically optimize model parameters according to the real data characteristics of modeling sequence. In this study, the proposed new model, discrete grey model, even difference grey model and classical grey model were employed, respectively, to simulate China's natural gas demands during 2002–2010 and forecast demands during 2011–2014. The results show the new model has the best simulative and predictive precision. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China's natural gas demand during 2015–2020. The forecast shows the demand will grow rapidly over the next six years. Therefore, in order to maintain the balance between the supplies and the demands for the natural gas in the future, Chinese government needs to take some measures, such as importing huge amounts of natural gas from abroad, increasing the domestic yield, using more alternative energy, and reducing the industrial reliance on natural gas. - Highlights: • A self-adapting intelligent grey prediction model (SIGM) is proposed in this paper. • The SIGM has the advantage of working with exponential functions and linear functions. • The SIGM solves the drawbacks of fixed structure and poor adaptability of grey models. • The demand of natural gas in China is successfully forecasted using the SIGM model. • The study findings can help Chinese government reasonably formulate energy policies.
During the 1980's, Baltimore Gas ampersand Electric (BG ampersand E) met part of the rapid growth in demand for electricity in its service territory by implementing cost-effective demand-side management (DSM) programs--specifically, peak shaving and load shifting strategies. BG ampersand E's focus in the 1990's has been expanded to include all DSM options with an increasing emphasis on those which promote overall 1 energy efficiency or strategic conservation. This change in focus is being driven by Federal legislation, state regulatory requirements and the perceived potential benefits for both the customer and the Company. Current activities related to DSM include involvement in a Collaborative Process to design cost-effective electric and gas conservation programs for all customer classes--low-income, residential, commercial and industrial. Program design consists of four steps: (1) data gathering and technology assessment; (2) development of program concepts; (3) detailed program design and (4) monitoring and evaluation. Significant reductions in the projected peaks as well as in sales in future years are the anticipated results of our efforts. As a combination utility, unique opportunities and challenges face BG ampersand E: fuel switching, eligibility of non-full requirements customers, and energy options for customers
Medlock, Kenneth Barry, III
The rapid expansion of industry at the outset of economic development and the subsequent growth of the transportation and residential and commercial sectors dictate both the rate at which energy demand increases and the composition of primary fuel sources used to meet secondary requirements. Each of these factors each has an impact on the pollution problems that nations may face. Growth in consumer wealth, however, appears to eventually lead to a shift in priorities. In particular, the importance of the environment begins to take precedent over the acquisition of goods. Accordingly, cleaner energy alternatives are sought out. The approach taken here is to determine the energy profile of an average nation, and apply those results to a model of economic growth. Dematerialization of production and saturation of consumer bundles results in declining rates of growth of energy demand in broadly defined end-use sectors. The effects of technological change in fossil fuel efficiency, fossil fuel recovery, and 'backstop' energy resources on economic growth and the emissions of carbon dioxide are then analyzed. A central planner is assumed to optimize the consumption of goods and services subject to capital and resource constraints. Slight perturbations in the parameters are used to determine their local elasticities with respect to different endogenous variables, and give an indication of the effects of changes in the various assumptions.
McCormick, Felicia M; Tosh, Karen; McGuire, William
Scheduled interval feeding of prescribed enteral volumes is current standard practice for preterm infants. However, feeding preterm infants in response to their hunger and satiation cues (ad libitum or demand/semi demand) rather than at scheduled intervals might help in the establishment of independent oral feeding, increase nutrient intake and growth rates, and allow earlier hospital discharge. To assess the effect of a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding prescribed volumes at scheduled intervals on growth rates and the time to hospital discharge. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. This included searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library, Issue 4, 2009), MEDLINE (1966 to Oct 2009), EMBASE (1980 to Oct 2009), CINAHL (1982 to Oct 2009), conference proceedings, and previous reviews. Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials (including cluster randomised trials) that compared a policy of feeding preterm infants on an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand basis versus feeding at scheduled intervals. We used the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group with separate evaluation of trial quality and data extraction by two review authors. We found eight randomised controlled trials that compared ad libitum or demand/semi-demand regimens with scheduled interval regimes in preterm infants in the transition phase from intragastric tube to oral feeding. The trials were generally small and of variable methodological quality. The duration of the intervention and the duration of data collection and follow-up in most of the trials was not likely to have allowed detection of measurable effects on growth. Three trials reported that feeding preterm infants using an ad libitum or demand/semi-demand feeding regimen allowed earlier discharge from hospital (by about two to four days) but other trials did not confirm this
Ettevõtte Liviko juht Janek Kalvi räägib alkohoolsete jookide turust Eestis, ettevõtte tegevusest ja investeeringutest. Kuigi Eestis tõusis alkohoolsete jookide aktsiis, ei ole tarbimine vähenenud
Beck, R.J.; Bell, L.
This paper reviews the 1995 performance of 22 of the largest US oil companies. It shows sector earnings, spending, prices, financial indicators, and exploration and production figures. Each company is identified to its revenues, working capital, returns on stockholder investments, and total assets. With regards to production, each company is identified by number of wells, refined product sales, liquid reserves, and net production
The usual harvesting method is for a diver to cut all. Ecklonia plants ... This study estimates the biomass of E. maxima available for harvesting, investi- gates the effects of ..... The processes that shape kelp bed structure and dynamics are of ...
Thursfield, Denise; Holden, Rick
In this article I draw attention to the current legitimising of new forms of identity of vocational and higher education learners. Using identity as a lens for examining pedagogy I focus on one of these new forms--the learner-worker identity. I examine one teaching and learning practice portfolio development, by discussing the program within which…
Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François
As a follow-up to IRGC's report on demand-side flexibility for energy transitions, this Policy Brief highlights that increasing flexibility in power systems is needed to accommodate higher shares of non-controllable and intermittent renewable generation, and that this requires changes to the market design and regulatory framework, to facilitate the development and deployment of appropriate technologies and market-based instruments (e.g. taxes and subsidies). The Policy Brief focuses on demand...
Timsina, J; Wolf, J; Guilpart, N; van Bussel, L G J; Grassini, P; van Wart, J; Hossain, A; Rashid, H; Islam, S; van Ittersum, M K
rice and all three cereals jointly but below one for maize and wheat for all scenarios, except for the scenario with drastic decrease in boro rice area to allow for area expansion for cash crops. Full Yg closure of all cereals is needed to compensate for area decreases and demand increases, and then even some maize and large amounts of wheat imports will be required to satisfy demand in future. The results of this analysis have important implications for Bangladesh and other countries with high population growth rate, shrinking arable land due to rapid urbanization, and highly vulnerable to climate change.
In the United States, the demand for electricity is increasing, so several energy sources have to be considered. Fuel and gas are taken into account for new generating capacity. But there are still environmental concerns and costs associated with coal. It is also predicted that orders will be set for new nuclear units for the middle of the decade. (TEC). 3 figs
Liu, Junguo; Zhao, Dandan; Gerbens-Leenes, Winnie; Guan, Dabo
Demand for hydropower is increasing, yet the water footprints (WFs) of reservoirs and hydropower, and their contributions to water scarcity, are poorly understood. Here, we calculate reservoir WFs (freshwater that evaporates from reservoirs) and hydropower WFs (the WF of hydroelectricity) in China
Processes and systems using water today are being subjected to increasingly stringent environmental regulations on effluents and there is growing demand for fresh water. In Morocco, consumption of water by industries is estimated in 1994 at 1 billion m3, the drinking water constitutes 4%. Water used in the food and drink ...
Lemmer, Andreas; Krümpel, Johannes
Highlights: • Feasibility of demand-driven biogas production in anaerobic filters demonstrated. • Predictable ramping up of gas production by 300–400% within one hour. • Degradation degree remained stable >92% for all substrates and operation modes. • Measure of responsiveness to sudden changes in organic loading rate introduced. • Carbon balance for demand-driven operation. - Abstract: The growth in electricity generated from renewable energy sources is posing challenges for grid stability and the need to counter balance the intermittent power supply by these sources. Biogas technology can offer such grid services by adapting biogas production to balance the demand and subsequent electricity production of the combined heat and power unit. Innovative plant designs, such as two-staged anaerobic digestion, could possibly adapt to imbalances in the electricity grid within shorter time frames than traditional continuously stirred tank reactors (CSTR). The scope of this research paper was to demonstrate the feasibility of operating an anaerobic filter for highly flexible gas production. The repeatability of this type of operation was examined to demonstrate its predictability. Based on gas production profiles, a measure of responsiveness was introduced to determine whether and how rapidly adaptations to the production process are possible. Furthermore, the influence of substrate composition was tested and finally a carbon balance was derived to evaluate operation performance. The results indicated that anaerobic filters are well suited for flexible gas production and the results were well reproduced under the conditions presented. Substrate composition was found to have no effect on increasing the rate of methane production. The pH value in the reactor did have an effect on the solubility of CO_2 and HCO_3"− and therefore marked an important parameter that determines biogas composition, especially under varying organic loading rates. The carbon balance had
Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
In this study, a new pricing approach is proposed to increase demand responsiveness. The proposed approach considers two well-known demand side management techniques, namely peak shaving and valley filling. This is done by incentivising consumers by magnifying price difference between peak and off......-peak hours. The usefulness of the suggested method is then investigated by its combination with an electric vehicle optimal scheduling methodology which captures both economic valuation and grid technical constraints. This case is chosen in this study to address network congestion issues, namely under...
Boudhayan Sen; Jiwoong Shin; K. Sudhir
We illustrate an approach to measure demand externalities from co-location by estimating household level changes in grocery spending at a supermarket among households that also buy gas at a co-located gas station, relative to those who do not. Controlling for observable and unobserved selection in the use of gas station, we find significant demand externalities; on average a household that buys gas has 7.7% to 9.3% increase in spending on groceries. Accounting for differences in gross margins...
The role of nuclear energy is under increasing scrutiny and uncertainty. None the less, there will be an increasing need for expansion of uranium supply to fuel committed reactors. Longer-term demand projections are very uncertain. Improved knowledge of the extent of world resources and their availability and economics is needed to support planning for reactor development, especially for breeder reactors, and for fuel-cycle development, especially enrichment, and reprocessing and recycle of uranium and plutonium. Efforts to date to estimate world uranium resources have been very useful but have largely reflected the state of available knowledge for the lower cost resources in regions that have received considerable exploration efforts. The IUREP evaluation of world resources provides an initial speculative estimate of world resources, including areas not previously appraised. Projections of long-range supply from the estimated resources suggest that the high-growth nuclear cases using once-through cycle may not be supportable for very long. However, additional effort is needed to appraise and report more completely and consistently on world resources, the production levels attainable from these resources, and the economic and price characteristics of such production. (author)
Sheffrin, Anjali; Yoshimura, Henry; LaPlante, David; Neenan, Bernard
Demand response can provide a series of economic services to the market and also provide ''insurance value'' under low-likelihood, but high-impact circumstances in which grid reliablity is enhanced. Here is how ISOs and RTOs are fostering demand response within wholesale electricity markets. (author)
Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)
Statistical data are presented on coal demands in IEA and OECD member countries and in other countries. Coal coaking and coaking coal consumption data are tabulated, and IEA secretariat's coal demand projections are summarized. Coal supply and production data by countries are given. Finally, coal trade data are presented, broken down for hard coal, steam coal, coking coal (imports and export). (R.P.)
Estimations of the demand and production of principal uranium resource categories are presented. The estimations based on data analysis made by a joint 'NEA/IAEA Working Party on Uranium Resources' and the corresponding results are published by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in the 'Uranium Resources, Production and Demand' Known as 'Red Book'. (M.C.K.) [pt
This book deals with inventory systems where customer demand is categorised into different classes. Most inventory systems do not take into account individual customer preferences for a given product, and therefore handle all demand in a similar way. Nowadays, market segmentation has become a
Hansen, Jacob; Knudsen, Jesper Viese; Annaswamy, Anuradha M.
In recent decades, moves toward higher integration of Renewable Energy Resources have called for fundamental changes in both the planning and operation of the overall power grid. One such change is the incorporation of Demand Response (DR), the process by which consumers can adjust their demand...
Byiers, Bruce; Rand, John; Tarp, Finn
This paper uses two industrial firm surveys to identify the key determinants of credit demand in Mozambican manufacturing. We construct five different measures of being credit constrained and estimate desired debt demand. Besides firm size and ownership structure, we find evidence that general...
A.B. Bakker (Arnold); E. Demerouti (Eva)
markdownabstract* The question of what causes job stress and what motivates people has received a lot of research attention during the past five decades. In this paper, we discuss Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) theory, which represents an extension of the Job Demands-Resources model (Bakker &
Arouca, M.; Gomes, F.M.; Rosa, L.P.
The energy demand in Brazilian residential sector is studied, discussing the methodology for analyzing this demand from some ideas suggested, for developing an adequate method to brazilian characteristics. The residential energy consumption of several fuels in Brazil is also presented, including a comparative evaluation with the United States and France. (author)
Xu, Zhao; Togeby, Mikael; Østergaard, Jacob
This report summaries the research outcomes of the project ‘Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve (DFR)’, which has received the support from Energinet.dk’s PSO program, Grant no. 2005-2-6380. The objective of this project is to investigate the technology of using electricity demands for providing...
Muzumdar, Jagannath M; Cline, Richard R
To provide an overview of supply and demand issues in the vaccine industry and the policy options that have been implemented to resolve these issues. Medline, Policy File, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts were searched to locate academic journal articles. Other sources reviewed included texts on the topics of vaccine history and policy, government agency reports, and reports from independent think tanks. Keywords included vaccines, immunizations, supply, demand, and policy. Search criteria were limited to English language and human studies. Articles pertaining to vaccine demand, supply, and public policy were selected and reviewed for inclusion. By the authors. Vaccines are biologic medications, therefore making their development and production more difficult and costly compared with "small-molecule" drugs. Research and development costs for vaccines can exceed $800 million, and development may require 10 years or more. Strict manufacturing regulations and facility upgrades add to these costs. Policy options to increase and stabilize the supply of vaccines include those aimed at increasing supply, such as government subsidies for basic vaccine research, liability protection for manufacturers, and fast-track approval for new vaccines. Options to increase vaccine demand include advance purchase commitments, government stockpiles, and government financing for select populations. High development costs and multiple barriers to entry have led to a decline in the number of vaccine manufacturers. Although a number of vaccine policies have met with mixed success in increasing the supply of and demand for vaccines, a variety of concerns remain, including developing vaccines for complex pathogens and increasing immunization rates with available vaccines. New policy innovations such as advance market commitments and Medicare Part D vaccine coverage have been implemented and may aid in resolving some of the problems in the vaccine industry.
Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred
Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris
Based on official information received from 40 countries, Uranium 2007 provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1st January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. It finds that with rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of underinvestment.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris. Nuclear Energy Agency
Published every other year, Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, or the "Red Book" as it is commonly known, is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. This 21st edition presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1st January 2005 and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2025 are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. This edition focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major c...
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris
Published every other year, Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, or the "Red Book" as it is commonly known, is jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is the recognised world reference on uranium and is based on official information received from 43 countries. It presents the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium industry in the areas of exploration, resource estimates, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantial new information from all major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Long-term projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements are provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. This edition focuses on recent price and production increases that could signal major changes in the industry.
O'Connell, Niamh; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik
and challenges of demand response. These benefits include the ability to balance fluctuations in renewable generation and consequently facilitate higher penetrations of renewable resources on the power system, an increase in economic efficiency through the implementation of real-time pricing, and a reduction...... in generation capacity requirements. Nevertheless, demand response is not without its challenges. The key challenges for demand response centre around establishing reliable control strategies and market frameworks so that the demand response resource can be used optimally. One of the greatest challenges...... for demand response is the lack of experience, and the consequent need to employ extensive assumptions when modelling and evaluating this resource. This paper concludes with an examination of these assumptions, which range from assuming a fixed linear price–demand relationship for price responsive demand...
Smith, Roderick A.
Rising transport demand is likely to be the biggest hurdle to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Globally and nationally, transport is consuming an ever increasing share of our total energy use. Furthermore, the bulk of energy used in transport comes from the burning of petroleum products. This brief paper summarises options arising from the two routes to reduce energy demand in transport: improved and more efficient use of existing and possible new transport modes, and the reduction of transport demand. In both areas, the prospects in the immediate and longer-term future are hedged with difficulties. Automobiles and aircraft have improved considerably in recent decades, but future improvements are likely to be incremental. The introduction of hydrogen as a fuel is appealing, but there are technical problems to be solved. Active reduction of demand for transport will require a decoupling of the link between demand and growth in gross domestic product. Globally, this will be very difficult to achieve. Various modes of public transport exist that are efficient in terms of their energy use per passenger kilometre. But they need large investments to make them more attractive than the automobile. However, population concentration in mega-cities, allied with congestion, will make such innovation essential. Policy measures can be assisted in their implementation by new technology, but will remain politically problematic
In a unique effort to compare and contrast differing views on future supply and demand for wood, a study found that demand for wood will increase, but there is no evidence of a crisis at the world scale. Opportunities to increase wood production, however, are limited and trade-offs among competing uses of forests are inevitable. A complex of factors determine supply...
In like manner, increased supply of the highly price-elastic commodities would benefit both the consumer and the producer in that an accompanying reduction in prices with increased supply would lead to a higher margin of demand than the fall in price. Finally, it is suggested that food demand problems in the study area ...
The antidepressant agomelatine blocks the adverse effects of stress on memory and enables spatial learning to rapidly increase neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) expression in the hippocampus of rats.
Conboy, Lisa; Tanrikut, Cihan; Zoladz, Phillip R; Campbell, Adam M; Park, Collin R; Gabriel, Cecilia; Mocaer, Elisabeth; Sandi, Carmen; Diamond, David M
Agomelatine, a novel antidepressant with established clinical efficacy, acts as a melatonin receptor agonist and 5-HT(2C) receptor antagonist. As stress is a significant risk factor in the development of depression, we sought to determine if chronic agomelatine treatment would block the stress-induced impairment of memory in rats trained in the radial-arm water maze (RAWM), a hippocampus-dependent spatial memory task. Moreover, since neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) is known to be critically involved in memory consolidation and synaptic plasticity, we evaluated the effects of agomelatine on NCAM, and polysialylated NCAM (PSA-NCAM) expression in rats given spatial memory training with or without predator stress. Adult male rats were pre-treated with agomelatine (10 mg/kg i.p., daily for 22 d), followed by a single day of RAWM training and memory testing. Rats were given 12 training trials and then they were placed either in their home cages (no stress) or near a cat (predator stress). Thirty minutes later the rats were given a memory test trial followed immediately by brain extraction. We found that: (1) agomelatine blocked the predator stress-induced impairment of spatial memory; (2) agomelatine-treated stressed, as well as non-stressed, rats exhibited a rapid training-induced increase in the expression of synaptic NCAM in the ventral hippocampus; and (3) agomelatine treatment blocked the water-maze training-induced decrease in PSA-NCAM levels in both stressed and non-stressed animals. This work provides novel observations which indicate that agomelatine blocks the adverse effects of stress on hippocampus-dependent memory and activates molecular mechanisms of memory storage in response to a learning experience.
The author feels that, with electric demand growth of 4.5 to 5% per year expected, it will be only a matter of time before stepping-up the stream of utility capacity additions becomes an important issue. If demand grows 4.5% per year instead of 2.8% as projected by NERC, demand will be 10% higher and peak reserve margins about 12 percentage points lower than envisioned by the NERC projections after five years. By 1988 or 1989, little or no excess capacity will remain, and the utilities will be faced with adding twice as much capacity annually as now planned to avoid service deterioration. As questions about the adequacy of current utility capacity plans and concerns about service quality move toward center stage, the antinuclear movement should find it increasingly difficult to garner the broad support it now enjoys. Capacity represented by any uncompleted nuclear plants will appear increasingly beneficial, and those who do not have strong antinuclear sentiments should become increasingly hesitant about lending support to the movement. Accordingly, electric demand growth in due course can be expected to drain marginal supporters from the antinuclear movement and thereby erode the movement's vitality
Sridhar, M. S.
Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.
Liu, H; Cai, L P; Xue, H; Zhao, Y; Wu, D; Zhang, D P; Yin, W Y; Sun, J P
Currently, a growing number of community-based organizations are providing rapid HIV testing service in various forms, some people with specific needs also purchase HIV rapid test papers through online sales channels, those imply that the demand of HIV self-test is in increasing year by year.In this paper, aims to understand the current situation of HIV rapid test led by CBOs and the approach, strategies and results of social marketing by means of expert interviews and site visits. Hope to illustrate the current situation, and make recommendations for future work.
Erikson, Clese; Salsberg, Edward; Forte, Gaetano; Bruinooge, Suanna; Goldstein, Michael
Purpose To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. Methods New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. Results Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not
Qu, Xinyao; Hui, Hongxun; Yang, Shengchun; Li, Yaping; Ding, Yi
The increasing renewable energy power generations have brought more intermittency and volatility to the electric power system. Demand-side resources can improve the consumption of renewable energy by demand response (DR), which becomes one of the important means to improve the reliability of power system. In price-based DR, the sensitivity analysis of customer’s power demand to the changing electricity prices is pivotal for setting reasonable prices and forecasting loads of power system. This paper studies the price elasticity matrix of demand (PEMD). An improved PEMD model is proposed based on elasticity effect weight, which can unify the rigid loads and flexible loads. Moreover, the structure of PEMD, which is decided by price policies and load types, and the calculation method of PEMD are also proposed. Several cases are studied to prove the effectiveness of this method.
Wu, Ya; Zhang, Wanying
With the rapid development of economy, especially the constant progress in industrialisation and urbanisation, China's energy consumption has increased annually. Coal consumption, which accounts for about 70% of total energy consumption, is of particular concern. Hence, it is crucial to study the driving factors behind coal demand in China. This work uses an input-output structural decomposition analysis (I-O SDA) model to decompose the increments of coal demand in China from 1997 to 2012 into the sum of the weighted average for eight driving factors from three aspects, including: domestic demand, foreign trade and industrial upgrading. Results show that: during the research period, the demand for coal increases by 153.3%, which is increased by 185.4% and 76.4% respectively due to the driving forces of domestic demand and foreign trade; in addition, industrial upgrading can effectively restrain the growth in coal demand with a contribution rate of −108.6%. On this basis, we mainly studied the driving factors of coal demand in six high energy-consuming industries, namely the electrical power, energy processing, metals, mining, building materials and chemical industries. Finally, we proposed targeted policy suggestions for the realisation of energy conservation and emissions reduction in China. - Highlights: •The driving factors behind coal demand in China from 1997 to 2012 are studied. •An input-output structural decomposition analysis is developed. •A fresh perspective of domestic demand, foreign trade, and industrial upgrading is employed. •The influences of these affecting factors on China's coal demand from six high energy-consuming industries are investigated. •Targeted policy suggestions for energy conservation and emissions reduction are suggested.
In a well-documented study, ''Asia Gas Study'', published by the end of the first semester of 1996, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipated the doubling of the LNG demand from Asia, because of a more rapid growth of gas industry than for other energy industries. The regional gas trade should even triple by 2010. This study is the first from IEA about Asia and focusses on 6 key-countries: Brunei-Darussalam, Taiwan, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. About 7% of the worldwide natural gas reserves belong to Asia but this self-sufficiency will fall rapidly. This paper summarizes the forecasting and uncertainties of natural gas demand from Japan, South Korea, China and India by the year 2010. LNG producers such as Brunei and Australia but also Papua-New Guinea, Vietnam, Alaska and Middle East are ready to supply the Asian demand. (J.S.)
The rapidly industrializing Asia-Pacific region has become a stand-alone economic force and the world's growth market for oil. Japan remains the region's premier economic powerhouse but no longer its only one. And Asia-Pacific economic fortunes have decoupled from the more-mature economies of Europe and the U.S. The East-West Center, Honolulu, in January projected Asia-Pacific average oil demand growth of 3.6%/year through 1999, nearly double what most economists expect for oil demand growth worldwide. Demand reached 14.5 million b/d in 1992, up 862,000 b/d from 1991. East-West Center analysts project demand of 16.4 million b/d in 1995 and 19.1 million b/d by 2000. Not all analysts expect such rapid growth for the region. Edward N. Krapels, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., Washington, D.C., told a seminar in Houston during March that demand in Southeast Asia will grow at an average of 500,000 b/d/year. The paper discusses economic strength; regional demand; the pressure on refining; the shortfall seen; an opposing view from the Energy Security Analysis; and construction activity
Kim, Hyun-Woong; Park, Jong-Jin; Kim, Jin-O.
The electricity demand in Korea has rapidly increased along with a steady economic growth since 1970s. Therefore Korea has positively propelled not only SSM (Supply-Side Management) but also DSM (Demand-Side Management) activities to reduce investment cost of generating units and to save supply costs of electricity through the enhancement of whole national energy utilization efficiency. However study for rebate, which have influence on success or failure on DSM program, is not sufficient. This paper executed to modeling mathematically expanded Bass model considering rebates, which have influence on penetration amounts for DSM program. To reflect rebate effect more preciously, the pricing function using in expanded Bass model directly reflects response of potential participants for rebate level.
Valeca, S.C.; Valeca, M.
Full text: Nowadays, the increasing energy demand and the decreasing 'classical' resources is a reality. In this context, sustainable development and economical growth is mandatory for each country. Nuclear energy becomes more and more attractive in order to solve those problems. During last years, nuclear knowledge management became an interesting topic in dedicated debates, due to the uniqueness of nuclear Industry. With five decades of operational experience in commercial power production, the nuclear power industry is mature and represents the first high technology enterprise of the twentieth century. There is a constant expectation that fission reactor technologies of today will 'soon' be superseded by more advanced designs, new concepts like Generation IV, fusion reactors, etc. Nuclear industry is highly regulated and politicized and strong anti-nuclear lobbies led to stagnation. The presentation underlines the key activity areas of the nuclear knowledge: - providing guidance for policy formulation and implementation of nuclear knowledge management; - strengthening the contribution of nuclear knowledge in solving development problems; - facilitating knowledge creation and utilization; - implementing effective knowledge management systems; - preserving and maintaining nuclear knowledge; - securing sustainable human resources for the nuclear sector; - enhancing nuclear education and training. Knowledge management in nuclear life cycle should cover all stages involved, namely: - design and engineering; - procurement; - manufacturing; - construction and commissioning; - operation and maintenance- refurbishment and decommissioning. In this context, Romania must change the Nuclear Educational System in order to face the requirements raised by Bologna Process and nuclear development. Possible solutions to attain this goal are illustrated in this presentation. (authors)
Oil demand asymmetry exists, is significant, and can be captured with a simple demand equation using a Pmax term. The unstable parameters of the original symmetric equations suggest misspecification. Addition of a Pmax term to represent asymmetry yields stable parameters from 1982 through 1989 and so suggests proper specification. Asymmetry is significant because the short-run (and long-run) price elasticity is less than half as large when oil price falls as when price rises beyond the past peak. The lower elasticity applies both to price decreases and also to price increases for which price remains below the past peak. As long as the real oil price remains well below the 1981 peak, asymmetry implies that OECD oil demand should be less sensitive to oil price variations than in 1981. More specifically, the results shown suggest that today's oil demand elasticity should be less than half as large as the elasticity for a price increase in 1981. Forecasts from the asymmetric equations are significantly higher than the DOE base-case forecast. DOE's lower forecast is due to greater price asymmetry through 1995 and to higher long-run price elasticity beyond 1995. One reason for the higher long-run price elasticity might be greater assumed improvements in energy-efficiency than implied by the historical data
O'nions, E.; Viding, E.; Greven, C.U.; Ronald, Angelica; Happé, F.
‘Pathological Demand Avoidance’ is a term increasingly used by practitioners in the United Kingdom. It was coined to describe a profile of obsessive resistance to everyday demands and requests, with a tendency to resort to ‘socially manipulative’ behaviour, including outrageous or embarrassing acts. Pathological demand avoidance is thought to share aspects of social impairment with autism spectrum disorders, but autism spectrum disorder–appropriate strategies, such as routine and repetition, ...
Regt Erik R. de
Even though overtime is a widely observed phenomenon, this paper argues against the view of overtime as a structural cost minimizing labour demand solution. A large part of the observed overtime can be explained by the volatility of demand and absenteeism.The paper''s main contribution is to investigate how stochastic absenteeism and stochastic demand tend to increase average hours per worker. Two distinct mechanisms are identified, independent of the type of uncertainty. The relative sizes o...
Ross, Hana; Al-Sadat, Nabilla A M
We estimated the price and income elasticity of cigarette demand and the impact of cigarette taxes on cigarette demand and cigarette tax revenue in Malaysia. The data on cigarette consumption, cigarette prices, and public policies between 1990 and 2004 were subjected to a time-series regression analysis applying the error-correction model. The preferred cigarette demand model specification resulted in long-run and short-run price elasticities estimates of -0.57 and -0.08, respectively. Income was positively related to cigarette consumption: A 1% increase in real income increased cigarette consumption by 1.46%. The model predicted that an increase in cigarette excise tax from Malaysian ringgit (RM) 1.60 to RM2.00 per pack would reduce cigarette consumption in Malaysia by 3.37%, or by 806,468,873 cigarettes. This reduction would translate to almost 165 fewer tobacco-related lung cancer deaths per year and a 20.8% increase in the government excise tax revenue. We conclude that taxation is an effective method of reducing cigarette consumption and tobacco-related deaths while increasing revenue for the government of Malaysia.
Julie W Hughes
Analyzing RTs, we replicated previous SI effects in BCN in healthy subjects and patients (reported effects’ p’s < .05. Subjects responded more slowly to items in semantically related vs. unrelated groups, and this interference increased across cycles (evidence of increasing selection demands; Figures 1a/c. Indicative of WM, healthy subjects were faster to name items as the number of unrelated items to be named (i.e., remembered decreased. However, this was attenuated by selection demand, as there was no decrease in RTs across repeated related items (Figure 1b. Converging evidence from patients demonstrated more impaired selection capacity produced increasingly slower RTs across item positions within the related condition (high selection demand (Figure 1d. Larger WM capacity (rhyme probe but not category probe, p = .54 produced increasingly faster RTs across items positions in the unrelated condition (low selection demand (Figure 1e. Together, these findings suggest that both selection demand and phonological WM processes mediate interference during naming.
Chateau, B; Lapillonne, B
The relationship between economic development and energy demand is investigated in this book. It gives a detailed analysis of the energy demand dynamics in industrialized countries and compares the past evolution of the driving factors behind energy demand by sector and by end-uses for the main OECD countries: residential sector (space heating, water heating, cooking...), tertiary sector, passenger and goods transport by mode, and industry (with particular emphasis on the steel and cement industry). This analysis leads to a more precise understanding of the long-term trends of energy demand; highlighting the influence on these trends of energy prices, especially after the oil price shocks, and of the type of economic development pattern.
Kim, Young Duk [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)
We provide various estimates of temperature effect for accommodating seasonality in energy demand, particularly natural gas demand. We exploit temperature response and monthly temperature distribution to estimate the temperature effect on natural gas demand. Both local and global smoothed temperature responses are estimated from empirical relationship between hourly temperature and hourly energy consumption data during the sample period (1990 - 1996). Monthly temperature distribution estimates are obtained by kernel density estimation from temperature dispersion within a month. We integrate temperature response and monthly temperature density over all the temperatures in the sample period to estimate temperature effect on energy demand. Then, estimates of temperature effect are compared between global and local smoothing methods. (author). 15 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.
Rodgers, M. Steven; Allen, James J.; Meeks, Kent D.; Jensen, Brian D.; Miller, Samuel L.
One highly desirable characteristic of electrostatically driven microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) is that they consume very little power. The corresponding drawback is that the force they produce may be inadequate for many applications. It has previously been demonstrated that gear reduction units or microtransmissions can substantially increase the torque generated by microengines. Operating speed, however, is also reduced by the transmission gear ratio. Some applications require both high speed and high force. If this output is only required for a limited period of time, then energy could be stored in a mechanical system and rapidly released upon demand. We have designed, fabricated, and demonstrated a high-density energy storage/rapid release system that accomplishes this task. Built using a 5-level surface micromachining technology, the assembly closely resembles a medieval crossbow. Energy releases on the order of tens of nanojoules have already been demonstrated, and significantly higher energy systems are under development.
Bartusch, Cajsa; Wallin, Fredrik; Odlare, Monica; Vassileva, Iana; Wester, Lars
Increased demand response is essential to fully exploit the Swedish power system, which in turn is an absolute prerequisite for meeting political goals related to energy efficiency and climate change. Demand response programs are, nonetheless, still exceptional in the residential sector of the Swedish electricity market, one contributory factor being lack of knowledge about the extent of the potential gains. In light of these circumstances, this empirical study set out with the intention of estimating the scope of households' response to, and assessing customers' perception of, a demand-based time-of-use electricity distribution tariff. The results show that households as a whole have a fairly high opinion of the demand-based tariff and act on its intrinsic price signals by decreasing peak demand in peak periods and shifting electricity use from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Households are sympathetic to demand-based tariffs, seeing as they relate to environmental issues. → Households adjust their electricity use to the price signals of demand-based tariffs. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a shift in electricity use from peak to off-peak hours. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a decrease in maximum demand in peak periods. → Magnitude of these effects increases over time.
Full Text Available In some European regions, particularly in mountainous areas, the demand for energy is evolving due to the decrease of resident population and the adoption of energy efficiency measures. Such changes are rapid enough to significantly impact on the planning process of wood-to-energy chains that are supposed to work for the following 20–25 years. The paper summarizes a study in an Italian pre-alpine district where some municipality shows a declining resident population together with increasing summer tourism. The planning of conversion plants to exploit the local availability of wood is formulated as a mathematical programming problem that maximizes the economic return of the investment, under time-varying parameters that account for the demand evolution. Such a demand is estimated from current trends, while biomass availability and transport is computed from the local cartography, through standard GIS operations. Altogether, the mixed integer optimization problem has 11 possible plant locations of different sizes and technologies taking their feedstock from about 200 parcels. The problem is solved with a commercial software package and shows that the optimal plan changes if one considers the foreseen evolution of the energy demand. As it always happen in this type of biomass-based plants, while the problem formulation is general and may be applied to other cases, the solution obtained is strongly dependent on local values and thus cannot be extrapolated to different contexts.
Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.
The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.
Lopez, Rigoberto A.; Liu, Yizao; Zhu, Chen
This study examines the effects of television advertising on consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks using a random coefficients logit model (BLP) with household and advertising data from seven U.S. cities over a three year period. We find that advertising decreases the price elasticity of demand, indicating that advertising plays predominantly a persuasive, therefore anti-competitive role in this market. Further results show that brand spillover effects are significant and that measuring ...
Sinha, J.; Saleeby, R.G.
This article deals with using demand-side management (DSM) resources as an effective means of balancing supply and demand as a part of least-cost planning. The authors present a more sophisticated application of the load forecast adjustment method that reduces the number of DSM programs that need to be evaluated and provides blocks large enough to eliminate resolution problems in production costing models
Full Text Available Environmental issues and concerns about depletion of fossil fuels have driven rapid growth in the generation of renewable energy (RE and its use in electricity grids. Similarly, the need for an alternative to hydrocarbon fuels means that the number of fuel cell vehicles is also expected to increase. The ability of electricity networks to balance supply and demand is greatly affected by the variable, intermittent output of RE generators; however, this could be relieved using energy storage and demand-side response (DSR techniques. One option would be production of hydrogen by electrolysis powered from wind and solar sources. The use of tariff structures would provide an incentive to operate electrolysers as dispatchable loads. The aim of this paper is to compare the cost of hydrogen production by electrolysis at garage forecourts in Libya, for both dispatchable and continuous operation, without interruption of fuel supply to vehicles. The coastal city of Derna was chosen as a case study, with the renewable energy being produced via a wind turbine farm. Wind speed was analysed in order to determine a suitable turbine, then the capacity was calculated to estimate how many turbines would be needed to meet demand. Finally, the excess power was calculated, based on the discrepancy between supply and demand. The study looked at a hydrogen refueling station in both dispatchable and continuous operation, using an optimisation algorithm. The following three scenarios were considered to determine whether the cost of electrolytic hydrogen could be reduced by a lower off-peak electricity price. These scenarios are: Standard Continuous, in which the electrolyser operates continuously on a standard tariff of 12 p/kWh; Off-peak Only, in which the electrolyser operates only during off-peak periods at the lower price of 5 p/kWh; and 2-Tier Continuous, in which the electrolyser operates continuously on a low tariff at off-peak times and a high tariff at other
Tachypnea; Breathing - rapid and shallow; Fast shallow breathing; Respiratory rate - rapid and shallow ... Shallow, rapid breathing has many possible medical causes, including: Asthma Blood clot in an artery in the ...
Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić
If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...
Alonso, Elisa; Sherman, Andrew M; Wallington, Timothy J; Everson, Mark P; Field, Frank R; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph E
The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.
With several countries building nuclear power plants and many more considering the use of nuclear power to produce electricity in order to meet rising demand, the uranium industry has become the focus of considerable attention. In response to rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of under investment. The ''Red Book'', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on official information received from 40 countries. This 22. edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1. January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. (author)
With several countries building nuclear power plants and many more considering the use of nuclear power to produce electricity in order to meet rising demand, the uranium industry has become the focus of considerable attention. In response to rising demand and declining inventories, uranium prices have increased dramatically in recent years. As a result, the uranium industry is undergoing a significant revival, bringing to an end a period of over 20 years of under investment. The ''Red Book'', jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on official information received from 40 countries. This second edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of first January 2007, as well as data on global uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements. It provides substantive new information from major uranium production centres in Africa, Australia, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and North America. Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2030 are also featured, along with an analysis of long-term uranium supply and demand issues. (author)
Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa
Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.