WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapidly changing demographics

  1. Individualism and demographic change

    OpenAIRE

    Kolev, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims to provide a counterweight to the omnipresent gloomy analyses of demographic change in Western societies. The central argument is that the strains and challenges which demographic change poses for different sub-orders of society can lead to a higher appreciation of the individual in these sub-orders, possibly entailing self-correcting properties of the process of demographic change. First, a two-fold division is provided for the causes of demographic change, distinguishing bet...

  2. Demographic Change and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haustein, Sonja; Siren, Anu Kristiina; Framke, Elisabeth

    This report is the literature review on demographic changes and transport of Work Package 1 of the EU project CONSOL, “CONcerns and SOLutions – Road Safety in the Ageing Societies” (contract period: 2011-2013). The report is a state-of-the art report that combines current knowledge with new...

  3. Changing demographics affecting sprawl

    Science.gov (United States)

    John F. Dwyer; Susan I. Stewart

    1999-01-01

    Demographic changes including population growth, racial/ethnic diversity, aging, expansion of urban areas, and migration to rural areas can bring significant population increases in particular areas that may encourage sprawl. Areas where the pressures for sprawl are likely to be the greatest include the periphery of urban areas, popular retirement destinations, places...

  4. Demographic changes and nationalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishnevskii, A G

    1995-01-01

    This article examines the different characteristics of the many peoples inhabiting what used to be the Soviet Union and communist Eastern Europe, including Yugoslavia. The differences among these nationalities, or ethnic groups, are illustrated using the example of demographic modernization, showing how different peoples have or have not passed through the demographic transition process. The author looks at ethnic differences in mortality, fertility, natural increase, and migration, as well as economic and social inequalities among ethnic groups. The prospects for inter-ethnic conflict are assessed.

  5. Changing Hispanic Demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Emily Gantz

    This report provides a demographic overview of Hispanics in the United States. Information was drawn largely from recent census figures. The following highlights are reported: (1) Hispanic Americans are the youngest and fastest growing minority group, but they are also more likely than non-Hispanics to drop out of school, be unemployed or…

  6. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Ebener, Stefan; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  7. Social demographic change and autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Kayuet; Zerubavel, Noam; Bearman, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Parental age at child's birth--which has increased for U.S. children in the 1992-2000 birth cohorts--is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association: de novo mutations, which are deletions, insertions, and duplications of DNA in the germ cells that are not present in the parents' DNA. Along the way, we show that a demographic eye on the rising prevalence of autism leads to three major discoveries. First, the estimated heritability of autism has been dramatically overstated. Second, heritability estimates can change over remarkably short periods of time because of increases in germ cell mutations. Third, social demographic change can yield genetic changes that, at the population level, combine to contribute to the increased prevalence of autism.

  8. Demographic change and income distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Weizsacker, R K

    1989-03-01

    This paper examines the interactions between demographic change and income distribution, especially in the context of government. Starting from a simple, descriptive life-cycle model of individual income, this paper established an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, 2 income maintenance programs are introduced: a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system. The resulting government budget constraints entail interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown not only to change, but in some cases even to reverse the distributional incidence of demographic trends. The superimposition of different age structures on populations of otherwise identical characteristics is non-neutral with respect to income distribution: disregarding state interventions, population aging increases income inequality. This result may no longer generally hold if redistribution policies are taken into account. The paper provides an example of how indirect demographic effects may lead to a reversal of sign. In the absence of any government program, a higher ratio of pensioners to active workers raises income inequality. In the presence of a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and pay-as-you-go financed state pension system, a higher dependency ratio decreases income dispersion. The restoration of government budget equilibrium induces unintended distributional effects which put the incidence of demographic shifts in a different light. Varying important aging indicator with realistic forecast bounds leads to inequality fluctuations up to 35%. This illustrates the quantitative scale and hence the political importance of demographically caused inequality distortions.

  9. Changing Faces: Suburban School Response to Demographic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Andrea E.

    2007-01-01

    As minority populations continue to grow, suburban school systems will bear a larger responsibility for educating students of color. Rapid demographic change may mean that students of color could walk into suburban schools ill prepared to address their academic and social needs. The focus of this study was to examine how and why several suburban…

  10. SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND AUTISM

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    KAYUET LIU; NOAM ZERUBAVEL; PETER BEARMAN

    2010-01-01

    ...—is strongly associated with an increased risk of autism. By turning a social demographic lens on the historical patterning of concordance among twin pairs, we identify a central mechanism for this association...

  11. [Demographic change and political representation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, S

    1990-06-01

    The political implications of demographic aging in Italy are reviewed. The main features identified are a shift in the balance of the electorate toward the south, and the increasing electoral importance of older voters.

  12. India's demographic change: opportunities and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, K S

    2011-07-29

    This paper discusses emerging demographic patterns and its opportunities and challenges for India. It investigates the specificities in the demographic transition in terms of various demographic parameters and the lack of homogeneity in the transition across states in the country. It presents some opportunities that can arise from having demographic changes, particularly the demographic dividend and interstate migration to overcome labor shortage in some parts. At the same time, there are serious challenges in the form of enhancing human capital development, addressing the issue of skewed sex ratio, and the possible rise in social and political unrest and conflict.

  13. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M

    2014-03-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives-classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the "second demographic transition," the spread of developmental idealism-that inform demographers' understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms.

  14. The Unaddressed Costs of Changing Student Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Leslie S.; Owings, William A.

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the impact of changing student demographics on financing education and on our national wellbeing. We begin by examining the research of current student demographics and their relationship to learning and education costs. We then calculate a 1% cost factor from the average per-pupil expenditure based on the 2011 "Digest…

  15. A Demographic Perspective on Family Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Suzanne M.

    2014-01-01

    Demographic analysis seeks to understand how individual microlevel decisions about child-bearing, marriage and partnering, geographic mobility, and behaviors that influence health and longevity aggregate to macrolevel population trends and differentials in fertility, mortality and migration. In this review, I first discuss theoretical perspectives—classic demographic transition theory, the perspective of the “second demographic transition,” the spread of developmental idealism—that inform demographers’ understanding of macrolevel population change. Then, I turn to a discussion of the role that demographically informed data collection has played in illuminating family change since the mid-20th century in the United States. Finally, I discuss ways in which demographic theory and data collection might inform future areas of family research, particularly in the area of intergenerational family relationships and new and emerging family forms. PMID:26078785

  16. [Demographic changes and health management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calero, Juan del Rey

    2006-01-01

    Since our Constitution declaration in 1978 and General Law for Health in 1986, to date, the Spanish society has undergorne marked social changes. Socio-economic and health indicators in Spain have also improved as to an increased life expectancy, important reduction in infant mortality, and favourable changes reported in the national Health Survey. Risk factors influence the main causes of death, thus it is said that "man does not die but it kills himself". Healthy health practices are specified, and there is empirical evidence of greater disability-adjusted life years, a better adherence to Mediterranean diet, no smoking, moderate consumption of alcohol, enough time of sleeping, weight control, avoiding obsity and overweight, and increased physical activity, all the above practices achieving a healthier life. At a global scale in the world we live, famine has no frontiers, and fighting against this plague can not await longer. Overall, health and poverty are correlated and it must be overcome for reasons of human dignity, universal rights (even in ius gentium), and ethical dimension as normative of new socio-economic structures. Present must be transformed to recover hope in ou global world, still hungry, and in need of justice, enlightenment and solidarity.

  17. Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes Bonilla, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  18. Global demographic change and climate policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Jaimes, Richard; Motavasseli, Ali

    2017-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets

  19. Demographic changes in towns in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksander Jakoš

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with population growth and changes in towns in Slovenia, whose characteristics are small towns. The latest population indicators show a decline in growth, which doesn’t necessarily represent stagnation but development in a new direction. In view of the present demographic trends, growth of larger towns in Slovenia will have to be qualitative and under no circumstances an account of smaller towns.

  20. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

    2012-07-14

    Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Racial Diversity in the Suburbs: How Race-Neutral Responses to Demographic Change Perpetuate Inequity in Suburban School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Welton, Anjalé D.; Frankenberg, Erica; Jellison Holme, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Suburbs across the US are experiencing dramatic demographic shifts, yet there is little research available on how suburban school districts are dealing with these changes. In this article, we examine the discourses surrounding race and demographic change in three suburban school districts that have been undergoing rapid demographic changes and…

  2. Strategic Responses to Demographic Changes: Students, Faculty, and Patrons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Robert A.

    Demographic changes affecting college students, faculty, and patrons and responses to the changes are considered. For each of the three groups, attention is directed to factors influencing change within and outside the campus, options available to the campus, and strategies for responding to the demographic changes. To recruit new full-time…

  3. Demographic change in the northern forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth M. Johnson; Susan I. Stewart; Miranda H. Mockrin

    2012-01-01

    The Northern Forest spans more than 26 million acres across Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont. With densely settled urban cores, sprawling suburbs, struggling industrial and forest products towns, fast growing recreational areas, and isolated rural villages, the region includes many of the diverse strands that together compose the demographic fabric of the...

  4. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

    2011-04-12

    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  5. Christian Schools and Demographic Change: Two Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huyser, Mackenzi; Boerman-Cornell, Bill; DeBoer, Kendra

    2011-01-01

    This article explores how two Christian school systems have responded to neighborhood demographic change. Researchers conducted interviews, attended meetings, and reviewed documents to explore two case studies--one of a school struggling to redefine its identity, purpose, and vision in response to demographic change, and another school that has…

  6. Demographic changes and consumers behaviours on the bread market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Goryńska-Goldmann

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of demographic changes occurring in Poland conducted in the present article shows trends and allows the consideration of demographic premises of the development and changes in behaviours of consumers on the bread market, i.e. of the product which takes priority place in the group of essential needs. Following demographic indicators were discussed: the size of Polish population, the rate of the fertility and mortalities, the age structure, average life expectancy, the household and the level of education. Appearing demographic trends allow forecasting the volume of demand for products. It was stated that on the bread market there will be changes of quantitative, genre as well as qualitative character that determine a challenge for enterprises of the bakery industry.

  7. [Political impact of demographic change in Germany. A summary view of the causes and consequences of demographic change in Germany and Europe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birg, Herwig

    2009-01-01

    In Germany, the increase of life expectancy and the rapid decline of fertility started in the 19th century. The decline of the total fertility rate accelerated since the last decade of the 19th century when the social security system was established in the framework of the social reforms introduced by Bismarck. The process of population change is still going on. Its main demographic dimensions are demographic ageing, population decline, and the internationalisation of the population process by in-migration. The societal consequences are conflicts between the old and young generations as well as conflicts within each generation between the population groups with and without children. The economic impact of demographic change is a reduction of wealth, caused by a lower growth rate of the national product and by a reduction of the growth rate of the per capita income. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Peripheralisation: the missing link in dealing with demographic change?

    OpenAIRE

    Leibert, Tim; Golinski, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    "Demographic change is an uneven spatial process in Germany. Depopulation and ageing have become pressing issues in most rural regions. In connection with low population densities and the financial difficulties of municipalities and service providers in rural regions, these demographic trends have led to a discussion about the future provision of services of general interest and - more broadly - the postulate of equal living conditions which was for a long time the basic principle of spatial ...

  9. Some Demographic Changes in the Population of Montenegro with the Projection of Future Demographic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Rajović

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Dramatic demographic changes through which in recent decade’s passes Montenegrin society, the consequences arising from the new realities require a serious socio-political engagement. Process of population aging, that began the seventies of the 20th century, represents a significant problem. The process of demographic change was accompanied by an internal migration to major urban centers, primarily Podgorica and Montenegrin coast, leading to emptying the interior of Montenegro. Unfortunately, this development of the population structure of Montenegro opens a series of questions and challenges that would the creators of the future you should put high on the scale of its priorities. In this text we will point out on change of total number of citizens of Montenegro according to the base and chain indexes of 1921-2011 and population in Montenegro 2016–2091 (cohort model projections.

  10. 'Fair innings' in the face of ageing and demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Nisha C; Gulliford, Martin C; Rudisill, Caroline

    2017-12-26

    There are now 125 million people aged 80 years and over worldwide, projected by the United Nations to grow threefold by 2050. While increases in life expectancy and rapid increases in the older-age population are considered positive developments, the consequential future health care burden represents a leading concern for health services. We revisit Williams' 'fair innings' argument from 1997, in light of technological and demographic changes, and challenge the notion that greater longevity may impose an unfair burden on younger generations. We discuss perspectives on the equity-efficiency trade-off in terms of their implications for the growing over-80 population, as well as society in general. This includes questioning the comparison of treatment cost-effectiveness in younger vs. older populations when using quality-adjusted life years and the transience of life expectancies over generations. While recognising that there will never be a clear consensus regarding societal value judgements, we present empirical evidence on the very elderly that lends support to a stronger anti-ageist stance given current increases in longevity.

  11. Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the near Future of American Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladner, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    "Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

  12. Performing Cultural Work in Demographically Changing Schools: Implications for Expanding Transformative Leadership Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Camille Wilson

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Marginalizing dynamics can emerge in school communities that are experiencing rapid demographic change, even when led by equity-oriented principals. The purpose of this article is to consider how educators can serve as transformative leaders through their performing cultural work that addresses inequity, crosses sociocultural boundaries,…

  13. Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices : The Role of Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groneck, Max; Kaufmann, Christoph

    Demographic change raises demand for non-tradable old-age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non-tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand affects prices via imperfect

  14. Demographic changes in towns of Central Serbia: Comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipović Marko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to intensive urbanization, Central Serbia's urban population reached almost 60% in the total population. Despite the fact that the urban residents share in Serbia is still bellow the level of urbanization in developed countries, in which the percentage of urban residents exudes 70% (in majority of cases even more than 80%, it is an impression that demographic "resources" of rural areas have bean rather exhausted and that all demographic revitalization potential of Central Serbia is concentrated in towns. This paper treats the demographic changes which encompassed the towns of Central Serbia since 1981 census onwards, with special emphasis on the population migrations as well as on the natural growth, i.e. age - gender structure formation featuring the towns of Central Serbia. The changes will be analyzed trough a comparative analysis at the level of small, medium sized towns and big cities, while Belgrade will be represent as a special category.

  15. Growth-Maximizing Public Debt under Changing Demographics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bokan, Nikola; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.; Hallett, Andrew Hughes

    2016-01-01

    This paper develops an overlapping-generations model to study the growth-maximizing level of public debt under conditions of demograhic change. It is shown that the optimal debt level depends on a positive marginal productivity of public capital. In general, it also depends on the demographic par...

  16. Demographic factors and genetic variation influence population persistence under environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willi, Yvonne; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2009-01-01

    Population persistence has been studied in a conservation context to predict the fate of small or declining populations. Persistence models have explored effects on extinction of random demographic and environmental fluctuations, but in the face of directional environmental change they should also integrate factors affecting whether a population can adapt. Here, we examine the population-size dependence of demographic and genetic factors and their likely contributions to extinction time under scenarios of environmental change. Parameter estimates were derived from experimental populations of the rainforest species, Drosophila birchii, held in the lab for 10 generations at census sizes of 20, 100 and 1000, and later exposed to five generations of heat-knockdown selection. Under a model of directional change in the thermal environment, rapid extinction of populations of size 20 was caused by a combination of low growth rate (r) and high stochasticity in r. Populations of 100 had significantly higher reproductive output, lower stochasticity in r and more additive genetic variance (V(A)) than populations of 20, but they were predicted to persist less well than the largest size class. Even populations of 1000 persisted only a few hundred generations under realistic estimates of environmental change because of low V(A) for heat-knockdown resistance. The experimental results document population-size dependence of demographic and adaptability factors. The simulations illustrate a threshold influence of demographic factors on population persistence, while genetic variance has a more elastic impact on persistence under environmental change.

  17. Beyond Demographics is Destiny: Understanding Economic Mitigation Strategies for Demographic Change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Bangladesh, Russia, Japan, Mexico , Philippines, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, Germany, Iran, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Thailand, France, United... prostitution .124 Concerns over economic impacts, demographic impacts, the imbalanced gender ratio and human rights have led many to believe that the one...are actually forced into prostitution .270 Overall, China appears likely to continue its high levels of employment of elderly workers, potentially

  18. Developing Arizona Turnaround Leaders to Build High-Capacity Schools in the Midst of Accountability Pressures and Changing Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ylimaki, Rose M.; Brunderman, Lynnette; Bennett, Jeffrey V.; Dugan, Thad

    2014-01-01

    Today's accountability policies and changing demographics have created conditions in which leaders must rapidly build school capacity and improve outcomes in culturally diverse schools. This article presents findings from a mixed-methods evaluation of an Arizona Turnaround Leadership Development Project. The project drew on studies of turnaround…

  19. Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education. Policy Paper Brief

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladner, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    "Turn and Face the Strain: Age Demographic Change and the Near Future of American Education" outlines a fierce battle looming between the needs of public health care and education. A crisis is fast approaching that makes comprehensive improvement of America's public schools more important than ever. Faced with rapidly expanding…

  20. Shifts in household demographics herald economic changes for Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenspan, A

    1993-06-01

    In Thailand, dramatic changes in households and the health status of the population have led to important implications for the economic sector. These changes affect health, education, housing, employment and transportation. A new book on the economic impact of demographic change by Andrew Mason and Burnham O. Campbell is referred to as a full discussion of the issues. National planning and projections must include household characteristics as well as numerical projections. The analysis of Mason and Campbell is summarized in this article. Important changes are occurring in the size, rate of growth, and age structure of Thailand's population. Life expectancy has risen to 63 years for men and 68 years for women. Fertility has fallen to 2 children/woman. Population growth was 1.9% in 1990. In 1990, there were only 1 in 3 under the age of 15, and these numbers are expected to shrink to 1 in 4 by the year 2000. 60% of the population is of working age; this is expected to increase to 65% by the year 2000. The 60 years old population is expected to be 7.5% of the total in the year 2000. The average household has 1.6 children. 96% of households live with a relative. The expectation is that household size will continue to decrease and the number of households will continue to grow. The number of elderly heads of households is expected to rise to 11% by 2010. Households will become "adultified." The policy implications for education are that the school age population will gradually decreases but the number enrolled will increase. Primary school enrollment will stabilize and then decline after 1995. Secondary school enrollment will increase and level off in 2005. Total enrollment will increase from 10.5 million in 1990 to 11.4 million in 2000 and decline to 10.7 in 2015. These changes will allow for improvements in the quality of education and expand educational attainment. In health care, the demand for maternal and child health services will decline; changes will occur in

  1. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  2. Living in the tide of change: explaining Japanese subjective health from the socio-demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitokoto, Hidefumi; Tanaka-Matsumi, Junko

    2014-01-01

    Today, countries around the world are caught in the tide of change toward Gesellshaft, or individualistic socio-demographic condition. Recent investigations in Japan have suggested negative impacts of change on emotional and motivational aspects of the Japanese self (Norasakkunkit et al., 2012; Ogihara and Uchida, 2014). Building on previous findings, in Study 1, we measured socio-demographic change toward individualistic societal condition during 1990-2010-two decades marked by great economic recession-at the levels of prefecture and city using archival data. In Study 2, we tested whether Japanese adults' general health, satisfaction with life, self-esteem, and perceived social support were negatively predicted by the change using social survey. Results of hierarchical linear modeling showed small but unique negative effects of the change on several health measures, suggesting that this change had an impact on health, above and beyond individual personality traits, and demographics. Additionally, interdependent happiness, the type of cultural happiness grounded in interdependence of the self (Hitokoto and Uchida, 2014), showed an independent positive relationship with all aspects of health examined. Implications for health studies in changing socio-demographic condition are discussed in the context of Japanese society after economic crisis.

  3. Endogenous technological and demographic change under increasing water scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pande, Saket; Ertsen, Maurits; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-05-01

    The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other

  4. Historical sampling reveals dramatic demographic changes in western gorilla populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guschanski Katerina

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Today many large mammals live in small, fragmented populations, but it is often unclear whether this subdivision is the result of long-term or recent events. Demographic modeling using genetic data can estimate changes in long-term population sizes while temporal sampling provides a way to compare genetic variation present today with that sampled in the past. In order to better understand the dynamics associated with the divergences of great ape populations, these analytical approaches were applied to western gorillas (Gorilla gorilla and in particular to the isolated and Critically Endangered Cross River gorilla subspecies (G. g. diehli. Results We used microsatellite genotypes from museum specimens and contemporary samples of Cross River gorillas to infer both the long-term and recent population history. We find that Cross River gorillas diverged from the ancestral western gorilla population ~17,800 years ago (95% HDI: 760, 63,245 years. However, gene flow ceased only ~420 years ago (95% HDI: 200, 16,256 years, followed by a bottleneck beginning ~320 years ago (95% HDI: 200, 2,825 years that caused a 60-fold decrease in the effective population size of Cross River gorillas. Direct comparison of heterozygosity estimates from museum and contemporary samples suggests a loss of genetic variation over the last 100 years. Conclusions The composite history of western gorillas could plausibly be explained by climatic oscillations inducing environmental changes in western equatorial Africa that would have allowed gorilla populations to expand over time but ultimately isolate the Cross River gorillas, which thereafter exhibited a dramatic population size reduction. The recent decrease in the Cross River population is accordingly most likely attributable to increasing anthropogenic pressure over the last several hundred years. Isolation of diverging populations with prolonged concomitant gene flow, but not secondary admixture, appears

  5. Historical sampling reveals dramatic demographic changes in western gorilla populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Today many large mammals live in small, fragmented populations, but it is often unclear whether this subdivision is the result of long-term or recent events. Demographic modeling using genetic data can estimate changes in long-term population sizes while temporal sampling provides a way to compare genetic variation present today with that sampled in the past. In order to better understand the dynamics associated with the divergences of great ape populations, these analytical approaches were applied to western gorillas (Gorilla gorilla) and in particular to the isolated and Critically Endangered Cross River gorilla subspecies (G. g. diehli). Results We used microsatellite genotypes from museum specimens and contemporary samples of Cross River gorillas to infer both the long-term and recent population history. We find that Cross River gorillas diverged from the ancestral western gorilla population ~17,800 years ago (95% HDI: 760, 63,245 years). However, gene flow ceased only ~420 years ago (95% HDI: 200, 16,256 years), followed by a bottleneck beginning ~320 years ago (95% HDI: 200, 2,825 years) that caused a 60-fold decrease in the effective population size of Cross River gorillas. Direct comparison of heterozygosity estimates from museum and contemporary samples suggests a loss of genetic variation over the last 100 years. Conclusions The composite history of western gorillas could plausibly be explained by climatic oscillations inducing environmental changes in western equatorial Africa that would have allowed gorilla populations to expand over time but ultimately isolate the Cross River gorillas, which thereafter exhibited a dramatic population size reduction. The recent decrease in the Cross River population is accordingly most likely attributable to increasing anthropogenic pressure over the last several hundred years. Isolation of diverging populations with prolonged concomitant gene flow, but not secondary admixture, appears to be a typical

  6. Changing Demographics and the Impact on Air Force Officer Retention

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Armstrong, Brenda

    2000-01-01

    .... A review of the demographic studies performed by the Air Force Chaplain Office in the early 1980s and the National Families and Work Institute in 1997 reflect the trend towards an increasing concern...

  7. Demographic change and marriage choices in one Carib family.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, K

    1994-03-01

    The demographic adaptation of a family of Topside Caribs along the Barama River in Guyana was studied. The family history included two grandfather and granddaughter marriages. Jack Raymond's father, who was born in 1870, left Bottomside after the death of his wife in the 1920s and settled above the falls of the Barama River (Topside in Sawari) with the hope of subsistence living off the rain forest. Information on the grandfather generation was made difficult by name changes, general references to all men in the second generation as grandfathers, and the focus on father's and mother's generation. The typical pattern was for brothers to live close by, and intermarry with a family of sisters. Female children married mother's brothers' sons or father's sisters sons. Their children formed their own cluster settlements. The early history indicated economic hardship, loss of wives, and difficulties in remarrying. The Baird chronicles of the reintroduction of gold mining and the ethnography of Gillin indicated that malaria and round worm were diseases affecting the indigenous population during the 1920s and 1930s. The Topside population was supported by the local gold-mining economy, while the Bottomside population suffered economic hardship and high infant mortality. In the Jack Raymond family, remarriage resulted in children marrying cross cousins. The younger daughter married in the 1940s, when subsistence production of cassava and hunting and gold-mining income provided the family's livelihood. The daughter had 10 surviving children, compared to her adoptive mother's two. For the daughter's generation, the first pregnancy occurred between the ages of 18 and 22 years, and birth spacing was 20-30 months for 25 years. Neither polygyny nor monogamy affected the potential for 12 children. In this Baramita Air Strip population in 1971, there were 62 mothers; reproductive histories were available for 59. The changes in reproductive patterns after 1940 were apparent: for

  8. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  9. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  10. Harnessing demographic change for economic growth in Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    17 avr. 2015 ... Public health and education consumption profiles show that the government is already pursuing policies to increase the prospects of future higher demographic dividends by investing in improving child mortality rates, reproductive health, discouraging child marriage and delaying first pregnancy, and ...

  11. Harnessing demographic change for economic growth in Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-05-04

    May 4, 2016 ... Public health and education consumption profiles show that the government is already pursuing policies to increase the prospects of future higher demographic dividends by investing in improving child mortality rates, reproductive health, discouraging child marriage and delaying first pregnancy, and ...

  12. Responding to Demographic Change: What Do Suburban District Leaders Need to Know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diarrassouba, Nagnon; Johnson, Shirley

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the demographic shifts in a medium-sized school district in West Michigan and the responses developed as a result of these changes during the last two decades. Findings indicated that the district's school demographics changed from being European American to minority dominant. As a result of these changes in student population…

  13. The changing demographic, legal, and technological contexts of political representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest, Benjamin

    2005-10-25

    Three developments have created challenges for political representation in the U.S. and particularly for the use of territorially based representation (election by district). First, the demographic complexity of the U.S. population has grown both in absolute terms and in terms of residential patterns. Second, legal developments since the 1960s have recognized an increasing number of groups as eligible for voting rights protection. Third, the growing technical capacities of computer technology, particularly Geographic Information Systems, have allowed political parties and other organizations to create election districts with increasingly precise political and demographic characteristics. Scholars have made considerable progress in measuring and evaluating the racial and partisan biases of districting plans, and some states have tried to use Geographic Information Systems technology to produce more representative districts. However, case studies of Texas and Arizona illustrate that such analytic and technical advances have not overcome the basic contradictions that underlie the American system of territorial political representation.

  14. Demographic Change and Bank Profitability.Empirical Evidence from German Savings Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Berlemann, Michael; Oestmann, Marco; Thum, Marcel

    2010-01-01

    Most European economies will experience significant demographic changes in the decades ahead. Due to low birth rates, populations are shrinking and ageing at the same time. This paper explores the impact of demographic change on the banking industry. A unique data set, which contains detailed information on almost 2.5 million accounts in 11 German savings banks, allows us estimating the socio-demographic determinants of retail profitability. Using a simulation model, we are able to predict th...

  15. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Openness to Change: Experiential and Demographic Components of Change in Local Health Department Leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jadhav, Emmanuel D; Holsinger, James W; Fardo, David W

    2015-01-01

    During the 2008-2010 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD) leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders, the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknown. The objectives of this study are to identify variation in openness to change by leaders' demographic and organizational characteristics and to characterize the underlying relationships. The study utilized Spearman rank correlations test to determine relationships between leader openness to change (ACQ) and leader and LHD characteristics. To identify differences in the distribution of ACQ scores, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric tests were used, and to adjust for potential confounding, linear regression analysis was performed. Local health department leaders in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were the unit of analysis. Expenditure and revenue data were available from the state health department. National census data were utilized for county level population estimates. A cross-sectional survey was performed of KY LHD leaders' observable attributes relating to age, gender, race, educational background, leadership experience, and openness to change. Leaders had relatively high openness to change scores. Spearman correlations between leader ACQ and departmental 2012-2013 revenue and expenditures were statistically significant, as were the differences observed in ACQ by gender and the educational level of the leader. Differences in ACQ score by education level and agency revenue were significant even after adjusting for potential confounders. The analyses imply that there are underlying relationships between leader and LHD characteristics based on leader openness to change.

  17. Societal implication and challenges of demographic change – some introductory remarks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Černič-Mali Barbara

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This introduction into the special issue of European Countryside describes the need to move from knowledge to action and from simplification to complexification in contemporary discourses about demographic change. While the first movement arguably refers to the contributions of this issue the latter is a plea towards more specification and differentiation when investigating and assessing phenomena of demographic change.

  18. Openness to change: experiential and demographic components of change in in Local Health Department leaders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel D Jadhav

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: During the 2008-10 economic recession, Kentucky local health department (LHD leaders utilized innovative strategies to maintain their programs. A characteristic of innovative strategy is leader openness to change. Leader demographical research in for-profit organizations has yielded valuable insight into leader openness to change. For LHD leaders the nature of the association between leader demographic and organizational characteristics on leader openness to change is unknown. The objectives of this study are to identify variation in openness to change by leaders’ demographic and organizational characteristics and to characterize the underlying relationships. Material and Methods: The study utilized Spearman rank correlations test to determine relationships between leader openness to change (ACQ and leader and LHD characteristics. To identify differences in the distribution of ACQ scores, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal Wallis non-parametric tests were used, and to adjust for potential confounding linear regression analysis was performed.Data: LHD leaders in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were the unit of analysis. Expenditure and revenue data were available from the state health department. National census data was utilized for county level population estimates. A cross-sectional survey was performed of KY LHD leaders’ observable attributes relating to age, gender, race, educational background, leadership experience and openness to change. Results: Leaders had relatively high openness to change scores. Spearman correlations between leader ACQ and departmental 2012-13 revenue and expenditures were statistically significant, as were the differences observed in ACQ by gender and the educational level of the leader. Differences in ACQ score by education level and agency revenue were significant even after adjusting for potential confounders. The analyses imply there are underlying relationships between leader and LHD characteristics

  19. Decomposing demographic change into direct vs. compositional components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2002-01-01

    We present and prove a formula for decomposing change in a population average into two components. One component captures the effect of direct change in the characteristic of interest, and the other captures the effect of compositional change. The decomposition is applied to time derivatives of a...... is also presented. Other examples concern global life expectancy and the growth rate of the population of the world.......We present and prove a formula for decomposing change in a population average into two components. One component captures the effect of direct change in the characteristic of interest, and the other captures the effect of compositional change. The decomposition is applied to time derivatives...

  20. The GGP in Eastern Europe: Insights into demographic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sigrist, F.; Emery, T.

    2014-01-01

    The past 25 years have seen considerable change in Eastern European societies following the transistion to post-socialist economies. These social and economic changes have had considerable effects on the demography of these countries and form the basis of many of the challenges that these nations

  1. Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

  2. Population Composition, Migration and Inequality: The Influence of Demographic Changes on Disaster Risk and Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, William; Rodriguez, Havidan

    2008-01-01

    The changing demographic landscape of the United States calls for a reassessment of the societal impacts and consequences of so called "natural" and technological disasters. An increasing trend towards greater demographic and socio-economic diversity (in part due to high rates of international immigration), combined with mounting…

  3. Germany's future electors : developments of the German electorate in times of demographic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sánchez Gassen, N.E.

    2015-01-01

    Nora E. Sánchez Gassen analyses how demographic trends and electoral law have influenced the German electorate in the past and projects their future impact. A set of population projections illustrates how the size and age structure of the electorate will change until 2030 due to ongoing demographic

  4. Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th century.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Samson

    Full Text Available Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

  5. Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J; Humphries, Murray M

    2012-01-01

    Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

  6. The Impact of Demographic Change on Tourism in North Oltenia Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian Adrian SORCARU

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Tourism in any region is closely linked to its demographic potential. North Oltenia is known in Romania for its valuable tourism potential, both natural and anthropic, which caused over time a contiuous diversification of the types of tourism. This study deals with the demographic evolution of the administrative units in North Oltenia, between Tismana and Olt Rivers in the last half of century (1966-2015, analyzing also the age structure and demographic ageing after 1990. The major objectives of this study were to identify the types of demographic change and the hierarchy of the administrative units; the analysis of age structure (youth, adults, elders, especially adults who include the working population capable of sustaining tourist flows in the region and demographic ageing. Mapping the results was designed to quickly identify the administrative units where demographic potential recorded an unfavorable evolution, where tourism potential and maintenance of the existing tourism infrastructure can be more difficult in the future.

  7. Earning and caring: demographic change and policy implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roderic Beaujot

    2002-12-01

    activities, we contrast theoretical orientations that see advantages to a division of labour or complementary roles, in comparison to orientations that see less risk and greater companionship in a collaborative model based on sharing paid and unpaid work, or co-providing and co-parenting. It is important to look both inside and outside of families, or at the changing gendered links between earning and caring, to understand change both in families and in the work world. It is proposed that equal opportunity by gender has advanced further in the public sphere associated with education and work, than in the private family sphere associated with everyday life. Time-use data indicate that, on average, men carry their weight in terms of total productive time (paid plus unpaid work, but that women make much more of the accommodations between family and work. Fertility is likely to be lowest in societies that offer women equal opportunity in the public sphere but where families remain traditional in terms of the division of work. Policies are discussed that would reduce the dependency between spouses, and encourage a greater common ground between men and women in earning and caring.

  8. [Demographic and ideational change in the European Community].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesthaeghe, R; Meekers, D

    1987-01-01

    "It is argued in this article that family formation is conditioned not only by economic factors (more particularly changes in opportunity structures for the two sexes), but also by ideational trends. The economic factors could be seen as responsible for period fluctuations that are superimposed on a long term ideationally driven trend with marked cohort contrasts. Value orientations are explored and compared across countries and age groups using the international data set of the European Values Studies. The analysis identifies a scale for the degree of tolerance towards non-conformism (e.g. divorce, abortion, one-parent family, rejection of marriage as an institution...) and the meaning of parenthood. Both are related to a set of other scales (religiosity, morality, leftism, nationalism, materialism, etc.). Theoretical links are also established with the theories of, respectively, Easterlin and Simons concerning the reasons for the recent fertility decline in the West." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  9. Earning and caring: demographic change and policy implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beaujot, Roderic

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available EnglishSeeking to define families as groups of people who share earning and caringactivities, we contrast theoretical orientations that see advantages to a division of labour orcomplementary roles, in comparison to orientations that see less risk and greater companionship in acollaborative model based on sharing paid and unpaid work, or co-providing and co-parenting. It isimportant to look both inside and outside of families, or at the changing gendered links betweenearning and caring, to understand change both in families and in the work world. It is proposed thatequal opportunity by gender has advanced further in the public sphere associated with education andwork, than in the private family sphere associated with everyday life. Time-use data [from Canada]indicate that, on average, men carry their weight in terms of total productive time (paid plus unpaidwork, but that women make much more of the accommodations between family and work. Fertility islikely to be lowest in societies that offer women equal opportunity in the public sphere but wherefamilies remain traditional in terms of the division of work. Policies are discussed that would reducethe dependency between spouses, and encourage a greater common ground between men and women in earningand caring.FrenchEn cherchant à définir la famille comme étant un groupe de personnes partageant les activités relatives au fait de gagner de l'argent et de prendre soin des autres, nous nous distinguons des théories préconisant la division du travail ou les rôles complémentaires comparativement au modèle collaboratif qui a l'avantage de présenter moins de risque et plus de compagnonnage et qui est fondé sur le partage du travail rémunéré et non rémunéré, le travail à l'extérieur de la maison et le parentage. Il est important de voir ce qui se passe à l'intérieur et à l'extérieur de la famille ou de considérer les liens changeant d'après le sexe entre le rôle de pourvoyeur et

  10. Path-integral calculation for the emergence of rapid evolution from demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2014-11-01

    Genetic variation in a population can sometimes arise so fast as to modify ecosystem dynamics. Such phenomena have been observed in natural predator-prey systems and characterized in the laboratory as showing unusual phase relationships in population dynamics, including a π phase shift between predator and prey (evolutionary cycles) and even undetectable prey oscillations compared to those of the predator (cryptic cycles). Here we present a generic individual-level stochastic model of interacting populations that includes a subpopulation of low nutritional value to the predator. Using a master equation formalism and by mapping to a coherent state path integral solved by a system-size expansion, we show that evolutionary and cryptic quasicycles can emerge generically from the combination of intrinsic demographic fluctuations and clonal mutations alone, without additional biological mechanisms.

  11. Demographic Changes of Hispanic Populations and Hispanic Student Enrollment in Texas Community Colleges: A Literature Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Jack; Slate, John R.; Joyner, Sheila A.

    2015-01-01

    In this literature review, Hispanic demographic changes in the United States and in Texas are examined. Hispanics have accounted for large changes in population, population change, and proportion of population. Accordingly, the literature was reviewed regarding Hispanic immigrants, both authorized and non-authorized immigrants. The issue of…

  12. Simulating Residential Demand in Singapore through Five Decades of Demographic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, N. R.; Fernández, J.

    2011-12-01

    Singapore's rapid and well-documented development over the last half-century provides an ideal case for studying urban metabolism. Extensive data [1, 2] facilitate the modeling of historical dynamics of population and resource consumption. This paper presents an agent-based population model that simulates key demographic factors - number, size, and relative income of households - through fifty years of development in Singapore. This is the first step in a broader study linking demographic factors to residential demand for urban land, materials, water, and energy. Previous studies of the resource demands of housing stock have accounted for demographics by modifying the important population driver with a single, aggregated "lifestyle" term [3, 4]. However, demographic changes that result from development can influence the nature of the residential sector, and warrant a closer look. Increasing levels of education and affluence coupled with decreasing birth rates have yielded an aging population and changing family structures in Singapore [5]. These factors all contribute to an increasingly resource-intense residential sector. Singaporeans' elevated per capita income and life expectancy have created demand for larger household area, which means a growing percentage of available land must be dedicated to residential use [6]. While the majority of Singapore's housing is public - a strategy designed to maximize land use efficiency - residents are increasingly seeking private alternatives [7]. In the private sector, lower density housing puts even greater pressure on the finite supply of undeveloped land. Agent-based modeling is used to study the selected aspects of demography. The population is disaggregated into historical time-series distributions of age, family size, education, and income. We propose a simplified methodology correlating average education level with birth rate, and income to categorize households and establish housing unit demand. Aggregated lifestyle

  13. How can “gender planning” contribute to tackle the challenges of demographic change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wankiewicz Heidrun

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Ageing society, lack of skilled workforce, changes in work life careers and changes in partner and family models, a shift in societal roles of women and men, young and old, migration flows from rural to urban, multiple residences and new forms of housing and the related spatial impacts are in focus of demographic change. It is obvious that demographic change is not to be managed without gender and equality issues. Spatial planning has a crucial role in facing these challenges as spatial planning laws demand to ensure equal access to housing, services and labour markets and to organize transparent and inclusive decision making procedures. The paper explores key concepts, methods and selected case studies from Europe on gender planning trying to focus on the potential for innovating planning discipline and tackling with demographic change issues in rural areas. Cases from Bavaria and Austria compared to rural regions in Eastern Germany with high female emigration show concrete planning approaches.

  14. Public health in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I. Andreeva

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (kommersant.ru, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

  15. The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geard, Nicholas; Glass, Kathryn; McCaw, James M; McBryde, Emma S; Korb, Kevin B; Keeling, Matt J; McVernon, Jodie

    2015-12-01

    The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. Here we use an individual based model with realistic and dynamic age and household structure to demonstrate the marked effect that demographic change has on disease transmission at the population and household level. The decline in fertility is associated with a decrease in disease incidence and an increase in the age of first infection, even in the absence of vaccination or other control measures. Although large households become rarer as fertility decreases, we show that there is a proportionate increase in incidence of disease in these households as the accumulation of susceptible clusters increases the potential for explosive outbreaks. By modelling vaccination, we provide a direct comparison of the relative importance of demographic change and vaccination on incidence of disease. We highlight the increased risks associated with unvaccinated households in a low fertility setting if vaccine behaviour is correlated with household membership. We suggest that models that do not account for future demographic change, and especially its effect on household structure, may potentially overestimate the impact of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Pharmaco-economic impact of demographic change on pharmaceutical expenses in Germany and France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boecking, Wolfgang; Klamar, Anna; Kitzmann, Florian; Kirch, Wilhelm

    2012-10-23

    Most European health care systems are suffering from the impact of demographic change. In short, aging of society is leading to higher costs of treatment per capita, while reproduction rates below 2.1 children per woman lead to a reduced number of younger people to provide for the necessary contributions into the health insurance system.This research paper addresses the questions what impact the demographic development will have on one particular spending area, what are pharmaceutical expenditure in two of Europe's largest health care systems, Germany and France, and what the implications are for pharmaceutical companies. The research is based on publicly available data from German and French health ministries, the OECD, and institutes which focus on projection of demographic development in those countries. In a first step, data was clustered into age groups, and average spending on pharmaceuticals was allocated to that. In the second step, these figures were extrapolated, based on the projected change in the demographic structure of the countries from 2004 until 2050. This leads to a deeper understanding of demand for pharmaceutical products in the future due to the demographic development as a single driving factor. - Pharmaceutical expenses per head (patient) will grow only slightly until 2050 (0.5% p.a. in both countries). - Demographic change alone only provides for a slowly growing market for pharmaceutical companies both in Germany and in France, but for a relevant change in the consumption mix of pharmaceutical products, based on a shift of relevance of different age groups. Despite demographic changes pharmaceutical expenses per head (patient) and the overall pharmaceutical markets will grow only slightly until 2050 in Germany as well as in France. Nevertheless, the aging of society implies different challenges for pharmaceutical companies and also for the health care system. Companies have to cope with the shift of relevance of different age groups and

  17. Leveraging age diversity in times of demographic change: the crucial role of leadership

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janz, K.; Buengeler, C.; Eckhoff, R.A.; Homan, A.C.; Voelpel, S.C.; Scott, C.L.; Byrd, M.Y.

    2012-01-01

    With demographic change, organizations today are seeing changes in societal make-up translated to the composition of their workforce. In the future, younger and older employees will have to work together synergistically to achieve good performance. The authors argue that it will be largely up to

  18. Demographic Changes on Public Education for Culturally Diverse Exceptional Learners: Making Teacher Preparation Programs Accountable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obiakor, Festus E.

    2009-01-01

    The changing demographics in public schools have called for strategic changes in how students in general and special education are educated. While this trend is increasingly becoming apparent, many educators and leaders are still entrenched in traditional methods of learning and teaching. As a result, culturally diverse exceptional students…

  19. Immigration and Urban Schools: The Dynamics of Demographic Change in the Nation's Largest School District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellen, Ingrid Gould; O'Regan, Katherine; Conger, Dylan

    2009-01-01

    The authors use a rich data set on New York City public elementary schools to explore how changes in immigrant representation have played out at the school level, providing a set of stylistic facts about the magnitude and nature of demographic changes in urban schools. They find that while the city experienced an overall increase in its immigrant…

  20. Living in the tide of change: Explaining Japanese subjective health from the socio-demographic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidefumi eHitokoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Today, countries around the world are caught in the tide of change towards Gesellshaft, or individualistic socio-demographic condition. Recent investigations in Japan have suggested negative impacts of change on emotional and motivational aspects of the Japanese self (Norasakkunkit, Uchida, and Toivonen, 2012; Ogihara and Uchida, 2014. Building on previous findings, in Study 1, we measured socio-demographic change towards individualistic societal condition during 1990 to 2010—two decades marked by great economic recession—at the levels of prefecture and city using archival data. In Study 2, we tested whether Japanese adults’ general health, satisfaction with life, self-esteem, and perceived social support were negatively predicted by the change using social survey. Results of hierarchical linear modeling showed small but unique negative effects of the change on several health measures, suggesting that this change had an impact on health, above and beyond individual personality traits and demographics. Additionally, interdependent happiness, the type of cultural happiness grounded in interdependence of the self (Hitokoto and Uchida, 2014, showed an independent positive relationship with all aspects of health examined. Implications for health studies in changing socio-demographic condition are discussed in the context of Japanese society after economic crisis.

  1. The Effects of Demographic Changes on Current Accounts: Evidence from OECD Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heechae Ko

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the effects of demographic changes on current accounts. The analysis (based on panel least squares and weighted least squares models shows substantial demographic effects on population ageing and current account balances in OECD countries. First, the negative impact of population ageing on general savings results in deteriorating current account balances. This result suggests that current account balances increase with the relative size of the working-age population and decrease when the elderly dependency ratio rises. This paper specifically distinguishes between two groups: the ageing society and the aged society. Empirical results indicate that demographic changes, such as dependency ratios, have no effect on current account balances in the ageing society group, but have a definite effect on current account balances in the aged society group, as previous research findings suggest. Therefore, current accounts will be positively benefited by encouraging birth rates and immigration from other countries in the long run.

  2. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  3. Rapid climate change: lessons from the recent geological past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan; Lowe, John; Wolff, Eric; Srokosz, Meric

    2011-12-01

    Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000 years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved.

  4. Principal Preparedness for Leading in Demographically Changing Schools: Where Is the Social Justice Training?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Catherine M.; Martin, Barbara N.

    2015-01-01

    This multi-case study sought to construct meaning using a cultural capital lens in relation to educational leadership preparation programs building the capacities of social justice leaders in demographically changing schools. Data revealed principals' perceptions about preparation, expectations and general beliefs and assumptions related to…

  5. School Reform in a Vacuum: Demographic Change, Social Policy, and the Future of Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusarelli, Lance D.

    2011-01-01

    In their search for magic bullets to fix failing schools, policymakers seldom directly address powerful ecological factors impacting schooling. This article identifies several major demographic, societal, economic, and educational changes and trends in U.S. society over the past several years; analyzes their impact on schoolchildren; and offers a…

  6. Suburban School Districts and Demographic Change: The Technical, Normative, and Political Dimensions of Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Jennifer Jellison; Diem, Sarah; Welton, Anjalé

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Suburban school districts have undergone significant demographic shifts over the past several decades. The research literature to date, however, has yet to explore how suburban district leaders are responding to such changes, or examine the factors that shape response. In this article, we apply a "zone of mediation" framework to…

  7. The Politics of Maintaining Diversity Policies in Demographically Changing Urban-Suburban School Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Sarah; Frankenberg, Erica; Cleary, Colleen; Ali, Nazneen

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on how the demographic change occurring within two county-wide school districts and communities in the South, including the creation of suburban enclaves alongside central cities overwhelmingly made up of low-income students of color, influences community support for diversity policies within two school districts with a history…

  8. Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T

    2015-01-01

    The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.

  9. Crossing the Line: Examination of Student Demographic Changes Concomitant with Declining Academic Performance in Elementary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochbein, Craig; Duke, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between school decline and changes in school demographics. Using a population of 981 (N = 981) elementary schools, the authors identified samples of declining schools: Relational Decline (n = 510), Absolute Decline (n = 217), and Crossing the Line (n = 165). Latent growth models assessed…

  10. Demographic Change and Public Education Spending: A Conflict between Young and Old?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grob, Ueli; Wolter, Stefan C.

    2007-01-01

    Demographic change in industrial countries will influence educational spending in potentially two ways. On the one hand, the decline in the number of school-age children should alleviate the financial pressure. On the other hand, the theoretical/empirical literature has established that the concomitantly increasing proportion of elderly in the…

  11. Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan N Williams

    Full Text Available A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka. The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts. We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka, resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed.

  12. Holocene Demographic Changes and the Emergence of Complex Societies in Prehistoric Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Alan N.; Ulm, Sean; Turney, Chris S. M.; Rohde, David; White, Gentry

    2015-01-01

    A continental-scale model of Holocene Australian hunter-gatherer demography and mobility is generated using radiocarbon data and geospatial techniques. Results show a delayed expansion and settlement of much of Australia following the termination of the late Pleistocene until after 9,000 years ago (or 9ka). The onset of the Holocene climatic optimum (9-6ka) coincides with rapid expansion, growth and establishment of regional populations across ~75% of Australia, including much of the arid zone. This diffusion from isolated Pleistocene refugia provides a mechanism for the synchronous spread of pan-continental archaeological and linguistic attributes at this time (e.g. Pama-Nyungan language, Panaramitee art style, backed artefacts). We argue longer patch residence times were possible at the end of the optimum, resulting in a shift to more sedentary lifestyles and establishment of low-level food production in some parts of the continent. The onset of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO; 4.5-2ka) restricted low-level food production, and resulted in population fragmentation, abandonment of marginal areas, and reduction in ranging territory of ~26%. Importantly, climate amelioration brought about by more pervasive La Niña conditions (post-2ka), resulted in an intensification of the mobility strategies and technological innovations that were developed in the early- to mid-Holocene. These changes resulted in population expansion and utilization of the entire continent. We propose that it was under these demographically packed conditions that the complex social and religious societies observed at colonial contact were formed. PMID:26083101

  13. Are rapid changes in brain elasticity possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K. J.

    2017-09-01

    Elastography of the brain is a topic of clinical and preclinical research, motivated by the potential for viscoelastic measures of the brain to provide sensitive indicators of pathological processes, and to assist in early diagnosis. To date, studies of the normal brain and of those with confirmed neurological disorders have reported a wide range of shear stiffness and shear wave speeds, even within similar categories. A range of factors including the shear wave frequency, and the age of the individual are thought to have a possible influence. However, it may be that short term dynamics within the brain may have an influence on the measured stiffness. This hypothesis is addressed quantitatively using the framework of the microchannel flow model, which derives the tissue stiffness, complex modulus, and shear wave speed as a function of the vascular and fluid network in combination with the elastic matrix that comprise the brain. Transformation rules are applied so that any changes in the fluid channels or the elastic matrix can be mapped to changes in observed elastic properties on a macroscopic scale. The results are preliminary but demonstrate that measureable, time varying changes in brain stiffness are possible simply by accounting for vasodynamic or electrochemical changes in the state of any region of the brain. The value of this preliminary exploration is to identify possible mechanisms and order-of-magnitude changes that may be testable in vivo by specialized protocols.

  14. Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.

    2008-01-01

    recently been used to investigate small-scale core flow(3,4), but no advantage has yet been taken of the improved temporal resolution, partly because the filtering effect of the electrically conducting mantle was assumed to mask short-period magnetic variations(5). Here we show that changes in the magnetic...

  15. Toward a mechanistic understanding of human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study linking energy development, avian nest predation, and predators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hethcoat, Matthew G.; Chalfoun, Anna D.

    2015-01-01

    Demographic consequences of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) have been widely documented for many populations. The mechanisms underlying such patterns, however, are rarely investigated and yet are critical to understand for effective conservation and management.

  16. Social psychiatry in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas K. J. Craig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many societies around the world are experiencing a period of unprecedented change in traditional social roles and customs. Globalisation has contributed to materialism and a me-first individualism that heightens awareness of income inequality that itself is one of the most robust markers of unhappiness in society. Ever increasing urbanisation has driven an erosion of large ‘joint’ family arrangements to be replaced by smaller and relatively isolated nuclear families and single parent living. Mass migration has unmasked deep seated fear and prejudice towards the outsider in society. These global changes are fertile ground for the social conditions that have long been known to be risks for mental illness – poverty, poor quality child care, social isolation and the active discrimination and exclusion of the alien, the physically disabled and mentally ill. While there is little we can do to reverse global change, there is much a social psychiatrist can do to mitigate the effect, ensuring his/her voice is added to other calls for reducing discriminatory practice, promoting evidence-based social interventions such as parenting advice and peer support and ensuring that the success of a treatment is measured not just in terms of symptomatic improvement but in whether it results in an outcome that is valued by the patient.

  17. Modern-Day Demographic Processes in Central Europe and Their Potential Interactions with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bański, Jerzy

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of contemporary transformations in the population of Central European countries on climate change, in addition to singling out the primary points of interaction between demographic processes and the climate. In analyzing the interactions between climate and demographics, we can formulate three basic hypotheses regarding the region in question: 1) as a result of current demographic trends in Central Europe, the influence of the region on its climate will probably diminish, 2) the importance of the "climatically displaced" in global migratory movements will increase, and some of those concerned will move to Central Europe, 3) the contribution of the region to global food security will increase. In the last decade most of what comprises the region of Central Europe has reported a decline in population growth and a negative migration balance. As a process, this loss of population may have a positive effect on the environment and the climate. We can expect ongoing climate change to intensify migration processes, particularly from countries outside Europe. Interactions between climate and demographic processes can also be viewed in the context of food security. The global warming most sources foresee for the coming decades is the process most likely to result in spatial polarization of food production in agriculture. Central Europe will then face the challenge of assuring and improving food security, albeit this time on a global scale.

  18. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  19. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  20. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  1. The importance of the timescale of the fitness metric for estimates of selection on phenotypic traits during a period of demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scranton, Katherine; Lummaa, Virpi; Stearns, Stephen C

    2016-08-01

    Although fitness is central to the evolutionary process, metrics vary by timescale. Different timescales may give rise to different estimates of selection, especially during demographic transitions caused by rapid environmental and socioeconomic change. In this study, we used a dataset of a human population in Finland from 1775 to 1950 to compare two fitness metrics and their estimates of selection pressures, before and during a demographic transition. Both metrics, lifetime reproductive success and an annual metric of individual performance, declined while selection on the ages at first and last reproduction remained nearly constant, favouring individuals with wider reproductive windows. The ability to partition the annual metric into contributions from reproduction and survival revealed the short-term effects of a famine and the reversal of selection pressure via the survival component of annual fitness. Although the metrics generally agreed, the annual metric detected the effects of environmental variation and demographic change occurring within a generation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. Ten Thousand Voices on Marine Climate Change in Europe: Different Perceptions among Demographic Groups and Nationalities

    KAUST Repository

    Buckley, Paul J.

    2017-07-11

    Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast) and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared

  3. The role of cultural transmission in human demographic change: an age-structured model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, L; Creanza, N; Feldman, M W

    2013-09-01

    Human populations vary demographically with population sizes ranging from small groups of hunter-gatherers with less than fifty individuals to vast cities containing many millions. Here we investigate how the cultural transmission of traits affecting survival, fertility, or both can influence the birth rate, age structure, and asymptotic growth rate of a population. We show that the strong spread of such a trait can lead to a demographic transition, similar to that experienced in Europe in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, without using ecological or economic optimizing models. We also show that the spread of a cultural trait that increases fertility, but not survival, can cause demographic change similar to the 'Neolithic demographic transition': a period of increased population growth that is thought to have accompanied the transition from hunter-gatherer to agricultural lifestyles. We investigate the roles of vertical, oblique, and horizontal learning of such a trait in this transition and find that compared to vertical learning alone, horizontal and oblique learning can accelerate the trait's spread, lead to faster population growth, and increase its equilibrium frequency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. [Demographic and epidemiologic changes in Colombia during the 20th century: facts and explanations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmona-Fonseca, Jaime

    2005-12-01

    Research, education, organization and administration activities in health need an updated panoramic view of demographic and epidemiologic changes and tendencies. To describe the main changes in demography and epidemiology during the 20th century in Colombia and to comment on the causative models used by some authors. A descriptive and longitudinal study. Second hand information from various sources was used. The final section of the review includes a discussion on the interpretation of data given by the original authors. In 1905-2005, population increased from 4,737,588 inhabitants to 48,864,013. The age distribution of the population showed dramatic changes: the true pyramid, as seen in 1951, changed into a distorted figure (no apparent differences between 0 and 14 years of age). Both children and youngsters lost representation on age structure, while adult and older individuals gain representation. During 1905-1938, the birth rate was 43% and by the end of 2005 it will be 22%. Mortality dropped a 75%, falling from 23% in 1905-1912 to 6% in 1885-1993, but it rose a 33% after 1993, and will reach 8.3% in 2010. In 1938, the urban population was 31% and in 2002, 72%. Mortality discriminated by cause changed in a significant manner during the second half of the 20th century. Infectious-parasitic and perinatal diseases, the main cause of death by the end of the 1960-1969 decade, lost importance on behalf of degenerative diseases, accidents and homicides which are now the most frequent. Conclusions. Our present population density is relatively low. The demographic change has been profound but the velocity has been more important. The aging of population has serious implications for the country. These notable modifications in Colombian families raise challenges in all social fields. The demographic and epidemiological changes (structure and level of morbimortality) require a serious analysis, and easy explanations do not have to be accepted without repairs.

  5. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  6. Managing in the rapidly changing context of higher education: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Higher education is one of the most rapidly changing sectors of our society. Besides the rate of change in the sector there are also, as seen from the continuous media coverage, a number of universities and technikons in some form of financial or leadership crisis. Over the past years one of the main reasons given for these ...

  7. [Population dynamics in Mexico: 1895-1990. The great demographic change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mier Y Teran, M

    1991-01-01

    In Mexico as in many other countries, the demographic transition began with mortality decline. With the great epidemics largely disappearing by the mid-19th century as a result of public health and sanitation measures, the mortality rate stabilized and began an accelerated decline after 1920. Life expectancy at birth was about 30 years in 1900 and declined during the decade of the Mexican Revolution. By the 1980s it had risen to 69 years. Fertility remained at high levels with slight variations until the late 1960s, when it began to decline 50 years after the start of the mortality decline. Government family planning programs intended to reduce the rate of population growth accelerated the fertility decline. Great changes thus affected Mexico¿s population during the 20th century. The total population increased from 14 million in 1900 to 82 million in 1990. Population growth was relatively slow and constant at around 1.3% until about 1910. It accelerated from the 1920s to the 1960s, and the number of children under age 15 increased sharply. Growth rates began to decline and the population to age in the 1970s. By the 1980s, Mexico¿s fertility rate reached an all-time low. The decline of population growth will be more apparent when the first cohorts of reduced size reach the peak fertility years shortly after 2000. Mexico¿s demographic transition is not yet complete. The evolution of fertility will be decisive in future demographic dynamics.

  8. Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Eduardo Sandoval

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.

  9. Rural demographic change, rising wages and the restructuring of Chinese agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Tianxiang; Yu, Wusheng; Baležentis, Tomas

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of recent demographic transition and rising labor costs on agricultural production structure and pattern in China during 1998-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors, first, theoretically discuss the effects of changing relative...... by an analysis based on the visualization of land use indicators on changing cropping patterns across Chinese provinces. Findings The authors find that tightened effective agricultural labor supply and rises in rural labor costs are associated with divergent changes in input mixes and output choices across...... agriculture counteracted disadvantages caused by rising labor costs and how such adjustments are product and region specific. Based on these observations, implications regarding further innovations in production technology and institutional arrangements needed within China’s agricultural sector...

  10. Asynchronous demographic responses to Pleistocene climate change in Eastern Nearctic vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burbrink, Frank T; Chan, Yvonne L; Myers, Edward A; Ruane, Sara; Smith, Brian Tilston; Hickerson, Michael J

    2016-12-01

    Pleistocene climatic cycles altered species distributions in the Eastern Nearctic of North America, yet the degree of congruent demographic response to the Pleistocene among codistributed taxa remains unknown. We use a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computational approach to test if population sizes across lineages of snakes, lizards, turtles, mammals, birds, salamanders and frogs in this region expanded synchronously to Late Pleistocene climate changes. Expansion occurred in 75% of 74 lineages, and of these, population size trajectories across the community were partially synchronous, with coexpansion found in at least 50% of lineages in each taxonomic group. For those taxa expanding outside of these synchronous pulses, factors related to when they entered the community, ecological thresholds or biotic interactions likely condition their timing of response to Pleistocene climate change. Unified timing of population size change across communities in response to Pleistocene climate cycles is likely rare in North America. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  11. Social, demographic, and environmental influences on perceptions and memories of weather, climate, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmberg, Julie Suzanne

    This research seeks to understand how people in the Denver metropolitan area perceive and remember weather, climate, and climate change and how social, demographic, and environmental factors might influence these perceptions and memories. To do this, an online survey was completed in 2006 and in-person interviews were conducted in 2010 and 2011. The online survey and the in-person interviews both asked questions about recent weather, seasonal climate for specific years, beliefs about climate change and human impact on climate change, and social and demographic information. During the 2010--2011 in-person interviews, ambient meteorological conditions were recorded. For climate recollections, overall accuracy was about 20%. In general, women who were politically liberal, majored in a science field, believed in climate change, and were in a good mood were the most accurate for past climates. However, this accuracy was still only about 30%. For recent weather memories, the accuracy was about 50%. Time was the biggest indicator of accuracy, with the most recent weather being remembered the most accurately. When asked to rate the weather from positive to negative for specific events, respondents reported the weather with a negative bias for extremely negative flashbulb memory events. For perceptions about climate change, over 80% of the respondents in the Denver metropolitan area believed global warming was occurring and that humans had an impact on global warming. Over 80% of respondents believed that global warming will impact the Denver metropolitan area, however not all of these people knew how climate change would impact them personally.

  12. Different routes of demographic changes in former Eastern bloc states at the turn of the 21st century based on the examples of Poland and Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaga, Małgorzata

    2012-01-01

    The article concerns the most important demographic processes that took place in two post-communist countries, Poland and Ukraine, after 1990. These countries differ in terms of economic changes that they have gone through so far. In case of Poland we may consider it as a success in reforming the economy, despite the fact that it caused certain negative social phenomena, e.g. large unemployment. On the other hand, in Ukraine, economic crisis was not stopped, but it is also deepening and its results have become significant modifiers of population processes. The changes in population number, natural growth and migration in both countries are the subjects of detailed analyses. They were presented in the context of the "secondary demographic transition", which Poland and Ukraine entered rapidly at the beginning of 1990, along with economic transformation and social changes.

  13. Potential (mis)match?: Marriage Markets amidst Socio-Demographic Change in India, 2005–2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashyap, Ridhi; Esteve, Albert; García-Román, Joan

    2015-01-01

    We explore the impact of socio-demographic change on marriage patterns in India by examining the hypothetical consequences of applying three sets of marriage pairing propensities – contemporary patterns by age, by age and education, and changing propensities that allow for greater educational homogamy and reduced educational asymmetries – to future population projections. Future population prospects for India indicate three trends that will impact marriage patterns: i) female-deficit in sex ratios at birth; ii) declining birth cohort size; iii) female educational expansion. Existing literature posits declining marriage rates for men arising from skewed sex ratios at birth (SRB) in India’s population. In addition to skewed SRBs, India’s population will experience female educational expansion in the coming decades. Female educational expansion and its impact on marriage patterns must be jointly considered with demographic changes, given educational differentials and asymmetries in union formation that exist in India, as across much of the world. We systematize contemporary pairing propensities using data from the 2005–2006 Indian National Family Health Survey and the 2004 Socio-Economic Survey and apply these and the third set of changing propensities to IIASA/VID multi-state population projections by educational attainment using an iterative longitudinal projection procedure. If today’s age patterns of marriage are viewed against age-sex population composition until 2050, men experience declining marriage prevalence. However, when education is included, women, particularly those with higher education experience a more salient rise in non-marriage. Significant changes in pairing patterns towards greater levels of educational homogamy and gender symmetry can counteract a marked rise in non-marriage. PMID:25604846

  14. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  15. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3− states and B(E3) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI1,∗. , SWATI GARG2 and ASHOK KUMAR JAIN2. 1Department of Physics, Banasthali University, Banasthali 304 022, India. 2Department of Physics, IIT Roorkee, ...

  16. Ten Thousand Voices on Marine Climate Change in Europe: Different Perceptions among Demographic Groups and Nationalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul J. Buckley

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the past few decades, substantial funding has been directed toward improving scientific understanding and management of impacts of climate change in the marine environment. Following concerns that the key messages from these studies were not reaching the public, a comprehensive opinion poll of 10,000 European citizens in 10 countries was conducted to establish levels of awareness, concern, and trust among different demographic groups (by age, gender, proximity to the coast and nationalities. Citizens exhibited varying levels of self-declared “informedness” and concern. Citizens from Germany, Italy and Spain claimed to be the most informed on marine climate change issues; those from Czech Republic, Netherlands and Estonia claimed to be least informed. Respondents were least aware of ocean acidification and most aware of melting sea ice, pollution and overfishing. Citizens of Italy suggested that they were generally most concerned about marine climate change issues. Respondents from coastal areas claimed to be both more informed and more concerned than those living inland, as did females and older age groups (54–64 years. European citizens obtain information about climate change in the seas and ocean from different sources, particularly television and the internet. Trust in the various media sources varies among countries and demographic groups. Television is trusted most in Estonia, Germany and Ireland and least in France. The internet is trusted most in Italy, Czech Republic and Estonia, but least in France and the United Kingdom. 18–24 year olds are the biggest users of the internet, but trust this source less than older age groups. Academic scientists or those working for environmental NGOs are trusted more than scientists working for government or industry. Citizens from France are more trusting of industry than any other country polled. In terms of policy actions, most respondents highlighted mitigation measures as opposed to

  17. Geoengineering and the Risk of Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, A. J.; Matthews, D.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists have proposed that geoengineering could be used to artificially cool the planet as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming. However, several recent studies have shown some of the potential risks of geoengineering, including negative impacts on stratospheric ozone, the hydrologic cycle and the possibility of rapid climate change in the case of abrupt failure, or rapid decommissioning of geoengineering technology. In this study, we have emulated a geoengineering scenario in the MAGICC climate model, by counteracting the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. We have used a hypothetical scenario of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, in which geoengineering is implemented at the year 2020, and is removed abruptly after 40 years. By varying the climate sensitivity of the MAGICC model, and using previously published estimates of climate sensitivity likelihoods, we are able to derive a probabilistic prediction of the rate of temperature change following the removal of geoengineering. In a simulation without geoengineering (considering only the A1B AIM emissions scenario) the maximum annual rate of temperature change (in the highest climate sensitivity simulation) was 0.5° C per decade. In the geoengineering simulations the maximum annual rate of temperature change, occurring in the year after geoengineering was stopped, varied from 0.22° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 0.5° C to nearly 8° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 10° C. The most likely maximum rate of change (corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 2.5° C) was just over 5° C per decade. There is a 99.8 percent probability that the rate of temperature change following the stoppage of geoengineering in this scenario would exceed 3° C per decade. This risk of rapid climate change associated with the use of planetary-scale geoengineering is highly relevant to discussion of climate policies aimed at avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the

  18. Rural AIDS Diagnoses in Florida: Changing Demographics and Factors Associated With Survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepka, Mary Jo; Niyonsenga, Theophile; Maddox, Lorene M.; Lieb, Spencer

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To compare demographic characteristics and predictors of survival of rural residents diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with those of urban residents. Methods Florida surveillance data for people diagnosed with AIDS during 1993–2007 were merged with 2000 Census data using ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTA). Rural status was classified based on the ZCTA’s rural-urban commuting area classification. Survival rates were compared between rural and urban areas using survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models controlling for demographic, clinical, and area-level socioeconomic and health care access factors. Findings Of the 73,590 people diagnosed with AIDS, 1,991 (2.7%) resided in rural areas. People in the most recent rural cohorts were more likely than those in earlier cohorts to be female, non-Hispanic black, older, and have a reported transmission mode of heterosexual sex. There were no statistically significant differences in the 3-, 5-, or 10-year survival rates between rural and urban residents. Older age at the time of diagnosis, diagnosis during the 1993–1995 period, other/unknown transmission mode, and lower CD4 count/percent categories were associated with lower survival in both rural and urban areas. In urban areas only, being non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, being US born, more poverty, less community social support, and lower physician density were also associated with lower survival. Conclusions In rural Florida, the demographic characteristics of people diagnosed with AIDS have been changing, which may necessitate modifications in the delivery of AIDS-related services. Rural residents diagnosed with AIDS did not have a significant survival disadvantage relative to urban residents. PMID:23802929

  19. Genetic signals of past demographic changes and the history of oak populations in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, R. S.

    2009-04-01

    A retrospective view of species' demographic changes can inform on population stability through times of climatic change and the origins and spatial structure of genetic diversity in contemporary populations. The former provides the means to predict responses to future climatic change, while the latter allows us to infer the ability of populations to buffer the effects of reductions in population size and fragmentation. The approximately 1.8 my of the Pleistocene is believed to have had a significant impact on diversity through high rates of extinction during early glacial cycles and population expansions and contractions during the later cycles. In the Mediterranean basin, early emphasis on taxa with wide latitudinal ranges led to models of refugial sites and subsequent recolonization routes that could explain geographic patterns in genetic diversity, with a trend towards reduced genetic diversity in the north. More recently, the study of strictly Mediterranean taxa has revealed relictual sites that have persisted over very long periods of time, commonly relatively poor in diversity, but populations well differentiated from one site to another. In California, relatively little is known of the population dynamics of plant taxa during the Pleistocene glacial cycles, or to what extent differentiation today is a result of pre-Pleistocene events. For several animal taxa, differentiation between Coastal and Sierran taxa are believed to date to the Pliocene. Major demographic changes resulting in population isolation, bottlenecks, founder events and population expansions leave a genetic signal that can be detected through appropriate genetic markers and analyses. Such signals help to infer whether past climate fluctuations have had important effects on population demographics. Here, I will focus on key oak species of the California mediterranean climate zone. I will explore the likely effects of the last glacial maximum on oak populations using palaeoclimate and niche

  20. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Pers Winning; Lundgren, Julie

    2016-01-01

    analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss...... intervention along with plasma measurements of fasting glucose, HbA1c, and potassium. For assessment of cardiac repolarization changes, T-wave Morphology Combination Score (MCS) and ECG intervals: RR, PR, QT, QTcF (Fridericia-corrected QT-interval), and QRS duration were derived. The participants lost......A1c (pMonitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  1. Demographic and clinical factors associated with changes in employment in multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Phil; Harding, Katharine E; Clarkson, Hannah; Pickersgill, Trevor P; Wardle, Mark; Robertson, Neil P

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate demographic and disease factors associated with changes in employment role and status in multiple sclerosis (MS). Questionnaires on current symptoms, employment status and factors associated with changes in employment were sent to a community sample of 566 MS patients. A total of 221 completed questionnaires were analysed. Of 169 employed at diagnosis, 43.3% had left employment at a mean of 11.9 years after disease onset. Of those still employed, 55% had changed their role or working hours to accommodate symptoms relating to their disease. These patients reported greater fatigue (p = 0.001), pain (p = 0.033) and memory problems (p = 0.038) than those whose employment had remained unaffected. Multinomial logistic regression revealed the factors most strongly predictive of employment status were disability level, years of education, disease duration and fatigue (p = 0.032). Despite changes to public perceptions and legislative protection over the last 20 years, high rates of MS patients still leave the workforce prematurely, reduce working hours or change employment roles. These data have significant implications when considering social and economic impacts of MS, support the value of employment metrics as long-term outcome measures, and demonstrate the need to improve employment requirements and flexibility of working practices in individuals with MS.

  2. Regional healthcare delivery and demographic change in Germany - scenarios for dermatological care in 2035.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kis, Anne; Augustin, Matthias; Augustin, Jobst

    2017-12-01

    The 'demand planning guidelines' issued by the Federal Joint Committee are meant to ensure nationwide delivery of healthcare in Germany. The calculatory variable used to reflect the actual care situation in relation to a given geographical entity is referred to as 'adjusted supply rate'. Against the backdrop of demographic change and already existing problems in replacing retiring physicians, the question arises as to how future dermatological care will evolve at the regional level. Using current 'demand planning guidelines' as well as nationwide data on the location of dermatologists and current and projected population figures at the county level, the adjusted supply rate - in terms of dermatological care - was calculated for the year 2035 based on three possible scenarios (scenario 1: 100 % replacement of retiring dermatologists; scenario 2: non-replacement of one dermatologist per planning area; and scenario 3: non-replacement of two dermatologists in rural areas). While scenario 1 shows an actual improvement in regional dermatological care in certain areas between 2014 and 2035 (n = 3 no longer undersupplied), the more likely scenarios 2 and 3 are potentially associated with considerable regional undersupply. Taking demographic change into account, it is safe to assume that the geographical heterogeneity of dermatological care will increase. This requires greater effort not only in terms of demand planning but also with regard to offering alternative methods of delivering healthcare and intercommunal cooperation. In this context, the objective will be to adapt healthcare delivery to changes both in demography as well as in the plans young physicians have for their own lives. © 2017 Deutsche Dermatologische Gesellschaft (DDG). Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. [The creation and changing definitions of demographic knowledge: the case of mestizos in the indigenous communities of the Valle Bajo of Cochabamba, Bolivia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, R H

    1996-01-01

    "In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries Spanish officials and members of the Catholic church created a series of race-based caste terms designed to identify and categorize the peoples of mixed ancestry. The Spanish American caste system relied on the assumed ability of a census-taker or priest to define the blood lines of an individual based on skin color and physical characteristics. However, the demographic knowledge created from the caste system was imprecise, and changed over time.... There were also long-term shifts in the meaning of terms and the definitions of status caused by socioeconomic changes. An example is the rapid rate of apparent mestizoization in the...indigenous communities of the Valle Bajo of Cochabamba, Bolivia. The rapid increase in the number of mestizos was related to changing definitions of the status and identity of indigenous peoples, and was not strictly caused by racial mixture." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) excerpt

  4. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

    2012-01-01

    Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

  5. Demographic Changes in the U.S. into the Twenty-First Century: Their Impact on Sport Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofacre, Susan; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Issues confronting sport marketers as U.S. demographics change include more older people, ethnic groups, working women, and minorities; television hours watched; and changes in family makeup. As the changes affect marketing, sport marketing will have to become more efficient in defining and reaching different markets. (SM)

  6. Rapid climate change and society: assessing responses and thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Simon; Petts, Judith; Hobson, Kersty

    2005-12-01

    Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere.

  7. Recently Identified Changes to the Demographics of the Current and Future Geoscience Workforce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, C. E.; Keane, C. M.; Houlton, H. R.

    2014-12-01

    The American Geosciences Institute's (AGI) Geoscience Workforce Program collects and analyzes data pertaining to the changes in the supply, demand, and training of the geoscience workforce. Much of these trends are displayed in detail in AGI's Status of the Geoscience Workforce reports. In May, AGI released the Status of the Geoscience Workforce 2014, which updates these trends since the 2011 edition of this report. These updates highlight areas of change in the education of future geoscientists from K-12 through graduate school, the transition of geoscience graduates into early-career geoscientists, the dynamics of the current geoscience workforce, and the future predictions of the changes in the availability of geoscience jobs. Some examples of these changes include the increase in the number of states that will allow a high school course of earth sciences as a credit for graduation and the increasing importance of two-year college students as a talent pool for the geosciences, with over 25% of geoscience bachelor's graduates attending a two-year college for at least a semester. The continued increase in field camp hinted that these programs are at or reaching capacity. The overall number of faculty and research staff at four-year institutions increased slightly, but the percentages of academics in tenure-track positions continued to slowly decrease since 2009. However, the percentage of female faculty rose in 2013 for all tenure-track positions. Major geoscience industries, such as petroleum and mining, have seen an influx of early-career geoscientists. Demographic trends in the various industries in the geoscience workforce forecasted a shortage of approximately 135,000 geoscientists in the next decade—a decrease from the previously predicted shortage of 150,000 geoscientists. These changes and other changes identified in the Status of the Geoscience Workforce will be addressed in this talk.

  8. The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahong eSun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

  9. The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.

    2016-01-01

    Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

  10. Future Demand For Long-Term Care Workers Will Be Influenced By Demographic And Utilization Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spetz, Joanne; Trupin, Laura; Bates, Timothy; Coffman, Janet M

    2015-06-01

    A looming question for policy makers is how growing diversity of the US elderly population and greater use of home and community-based services will affect demand for long-term care workers. We used national surveys to analyze current use and staffing of long-term care, project demand for long-term care services and workers through 2030, and assess how projections varied if we changed assumptions about utilization patterns. If current trends continue, the occupations anticipated to grow the most over the period are counselors and social workers (94 percent), community and social services workers (93 percent), and home health and personal care aides (88 percent). Alternative projections were computed for scenarios that assumed changing racial and ethnic patterns of long-term care use or shifts toward noninstitutional care. For instance, if Hispanics used services at the same rate as non-Hispanic blacks, the projected demand for long-term care workers would be 5 percent higher than if current trends continued. If 20 percent of nursing home care were shifted to home health services, total employment growth would be about 12 percent lower. Demographic and utilization changes would have little effect on projections of robust long-term care employment growth between now and 2030. Policy makers and educators should redouble efforts to create and sustainably fund programs to recruit, train, and retain long-term care workers. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  11. Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany - a mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Johannes; Damm, Oliver; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hengel, Hartmut; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E; Siedler, Anette; Ultsch, Bernhard; Weidemann, Felix; Wichmann, Ole; Karch, André; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

    2018-01-09

    Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

  12. Demographic Change in the American Geophysical Union's United States Membership, 2006-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    AGU's demographic characteristics changed during the period 2006-2014 in response to the aging of the Baby Boom generation and an increase in the number of women geoscientists. This analysis deals only with the portion of AGU's membership with mailing addresses within the US, a group that comprised 65% of the worldwide total in 2006 and 61% of the total membership in 2014. Using the US membership data that include both the members' birthdate and gender, a comparison of the population structures in 2006 and 2014 reveals characteristics of the changing US workforce. Since 2006, the percent of the US membership represented by the Baby Boom has decreased 5.2%, from 37.2% to 32.0%. That trend will continue for the next 20 years and the rate will accelerate before slowing again. At the same time the Boomers are decreasing in number, the percentage of the membership represented by the more recent age-cohorts (born 1965-1989) has grown. For example, in 2006, the 1985-1989 cohort was barely represented (0.14%). By February 2014, the cohort had become 8.25% of the U.S. membership. The four cohorts covering birth years 1965 through 1984, each increased slightly in size. In addition, each had a larger number of women, reflecting AGU's increased female membership from 22.5% to 25.3%. The 1985-1989 cohort is somewhat smaller than the previous four cohorts. If the smaller size of this represents a reversal of the growth trend over the last 25 years, the implications for the size of the US workforce are important. Perhaps the most significant change in the demographic structure of AGU's US membership is that the general shape of the age-gender diagram, while still asymmetrical because of the larger number of men, is becoming more straight sided due to the similar size of recent cohorts. This shape is characteristic of stable populations when dealing with self-reproducing groups. The implications for the future of a scientific society are less clear, but the cause reflects a period

  13. A Demographic Analysis of American Geophysical Union Membership with Implications for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, D. D.

    2006-12-01

    Demographers use population pyramids to characterize the age/gender structure of societal groups. Diagrams of the population of age cohorts for both sexes assume the shape of a pyramid in rapidly expanding groups, having many more young people than older adults. Stable populations have similar numbers of people in age cohorts from infants through middle-age adults. Shrinking populations have fewer children and relatively larger numbers of adults. Demographic analysis of the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) membership reveals significant differences among the numerous specialties and the membership as a whole. The population structure diagram of the total AGU membership is highly asymmetrical with 77.5% male and 22.5% female. Males outnumber females in every age cohort. This is most noticeable among members born prior to 1945. Males belonging to these cohorts make up 16.5% of the total membership, while female members of equivalent age include 0.8% of the total. The largest membership cohort (29% of the total) is comprised of males born between 1950 and 1964, a group that includes both the "baby boom" generation and post-war petroleum exploration expansion. In contrast, the female cohort with birth years from 1970 to 1979 is the largest grouping of women members (8.4% of AGU's membership). Furthermore, women comprise 36% of the members born since 1965, and only 14.5% of those born before 1965. Considered separately, the female membership's age structure is characteristic of a growing population, while the male side is in relative decline. The population structure of the entire membership is mirrored in some specialties, but there are remarkable differences in others. The largest specialty group (hydrology) includes 16.9% of the total AGU membership and has a population structure that differs little from that of the whole organization. Four specialties, Atmospheric Chemistry, Biogeosciences, and Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, and Marine Geochemistry differ

  14. Perceived Stress and Use of Coping Strategies as a Response to Rapidly Changing Student Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner, Reinhard W.; Healy, Donald E., Jr.

    2004-01-01

    The authors present findings from an initial information gathering and analysis of a larger Office of Special Education Programs model demonstration project, "Connections to Success." The article is based on an analysis of a teacher survey conducted at four schools in the project's partner district focused on perceived problems, sources of stress,…

  15. Demographic drivers of tree biomass change during secondary succession in northeastern Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozendaal, Danae M A; Chazdon, Robin L

    2015-03-01

    Second-growth tropical forests are an important global carbon sink. As current knowledge on biomass accumulation during secondary succession is heavily based on chronosequence studies, direct estimates of annual rates of biomass accumulation in monitored stands are largely unavailable. We evaluated the contributions of tree diameter increment, recruitment, and mortality to annual tree biomass change during succession for three groups of tree species: second-growth (SG) specialists, generalists, and old-growth (OG) specialists. We monitored six second-growth tropical forests that varied in stand age and two old-growth forests in northeastern Costa Rica. We monitored these over a period of 8 to 16 years. To assess rates of biomass change during secondary succession, we compared standing biomass and biomass dynamics between second-growth forest stages and old-growth forest, and evaluated the effect of stand age on standing biomass and biomass dynamics in second-growth forests. Standing tree biomass increased with stand age during succession, whereas the rate of biomass change decreased. Biomass change was largely driven by tree diameter increment and mortality, with a minor contribution from recruitment. The relative importance of these demographic drivers shifted over succession. Biomass gain due to tree diameter increment decreased with stand age, whereas biomass loss due to mortality increased. In the age range of our second-growth forests, 10-41 years, SG specialists dominated tree biomass in second-growth forests. SG specialists, and to a lesser extent generalists, also dominated stand-level biomass increase due to tree diameter increment, whereas SG specialists largely accounted for decreases in biomass due to mortality. Our results indicate that tree growth is largely driving biomass dynamics early in succession, whereas both growth and mortality are important later in succession. Biomass dynamics are largely accounted for by a few SG specialists and one

  16. The challenge of reconciling development objectives in the context of demographic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Provo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers whether the US Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC Asset-Based Development Initiative (ABDI reconciles economic development objectives in communities experiencing demographic change. Through a case study approach utilizing key informant interviews in Southwest Virginia communities and a review of ARC-funded projects, the authors consider two main questions. Did community leadership change or adapt to the program? Were new projects demonstrably different in objectives, content, or outcomes than past projects? Economic and demographic similarities between Alpine and Appalachian communities, particularly in the role of in-migrants, suggest that this study’s findings will be relevant for other mountain regions and could contribute to a conversation among international scholars of mountain development.Cet article cherche à déterminer si l’initiative de développement basé sur les ressources (ABDI, Asset-Based Development Initiative de la Commission régionale des Appalaches (ARC, Appalachian Regional Commission aux États-Unis réconcilie les objectifs de développement économique dans les communautés qui présentent un changement démographique. À travers des études de cas reposant sur des entretiens informatifs clés menés dans les communautés de la Virginie Occidentale et un examen de projets financés par l’ARC, les auteurs tentent de répondre à deux questions fondamentales : « Le leadership communautaire a-t-il évolué et s’est-il adapté au programme ? » et « Les nouveaux projets différaient-ils clairement, en termes d’objectifs, de contenu ou de résultats, des projets antérieurs ? ». Les similitudes économiques et démographiques entre les communautés alpines et appalachiennes, notamment en ce qui concerne le rôle des immigrants, suggèrent que les conclusions de cette étude seront pertinentes pour d’autres régions de montagnes et pourraient contribuer à un débat entre sp

  17. Diversity as valued and troubled: social identities and demographic categories in understandings of rapid urban growth in Vanuatu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmer, Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the simultaneous mainstreaming and diversification of ni-Vanuatu social categories associated with the ways in which population growth is understood as a possible crisis in both demographic knowledge and everyday ni-Vanuatu knowledge. The author is interested in understanding the downplaying but primarily the amplification of difference with respect to place, generation and gender identities. The relationship between reproduction, social reproduction and the multiple meanings of modernity is at issue. In the expert knowledge of demography that proffers advice for the ni-Vanuatu state, it is the lack of modern development - in the form of adequate biomedical birth control, western education, and the equality of women - that is the implicit cause of population growth. Yet, many ni-Vanuatu see population growth as tied to the troubles that arise from the dilution of traditional social forms: there is too much modernity. In both demographic and ni-Vanuatu everyday narrations of the potential population crisis, diversification and mainstreaming take place and vulnerabilities are produced.

  18. RAPID CHANGES IN SOCIETY, TECHNOLOGY ,ECONOMY AND PUBLIC SERVICE INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirthendu Bagchi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Current paper has the purpose to analyze the statement by Drucker (1985 that rapid changes in today’s society, technology, and economy in general are simultaneously a great threat to public-service institutions and even greater opportunity. The statement by Drucker will be analyzed  particularly with context of post offices that what are they going through these days or have gone through. Finally, some recommendations will be made for USPS based on the findings of the analysis..

  19. Radiation Brain Drain? The Impact of Demographic Change on U.S. Radiation Protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hricak, Hedvig; Dauer, Lawrence T

    2017-02-01

    The use of radiation has a substantial beneficial impact, particularly in the areas of medicine, energy production, basic science research, and industrial applications. Radiation protection knowledge and experience are required for acquiring and implementing scientific knowledge to protect workers, members of the public, and the environment from potential harmful effects of ionizing radiation while facilitating the beneficial use and development of radiation-based technologies. However, demographic changes are negatively impacting U.S. radiation protection and response capabilities. The number of radiation professionals continues to decrease even as the demand for such professionals is growing. These concerns are most pronounced in the medical, energy, research, and security arenas. Though the United States has been the world leader in radiation protection and radiation sciences for many years, the country has no strategic plan to ensure the maintenance of expertise in radiobiology, radiation physics, and radiation protection. Solving this problem will require a significant increase in federal and state funding as well as formal partnerships and initiatives among academia, professional societies, government, and the private sector.

  20. Stratification by Genetic and Demographic Characteristics Improves Diagnostic Accuracy of Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Rapidly Progressive Dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karch, André; Llorens, Franc; Schmitz, Matthias; Arora, Amandeep Singh; Zafar, Saima; Lange, Peter; Schmidt, Christian; Zerr, Inga

    2016-10-18

    Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are routinely used for the differential diagnosis of rapidly progressive dementia, but are also affected by patients' characteristics. To assess if stratification by age, sex, and genetic risk factors improves the accuracy of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers in patients with rapidly progressive dementia. 1,538 individuals with sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), 173 with classic Alzheimer's disease (cAD), 37 with rapidly progressive Alzheimer's disease (rpAD), and 589 without signs of dementia were included in this retrospective diagnostic study. The effect of age, sex, PRNP codon 129, and APOE genotype on CSF levels of tau, p-tau, Aβ1-42, and Aβ1-40 values measured at time of diagnostic work-up was assessed. Tau was a better marker for the differentiation of CJD and rpAD in older (AUC:0.97; 95% CI:0.96-1.00) than in younger (AUC:0.91; 95% CI:0.87-0.94) patients as tau levels increased with age in CJD patients, but not in rpAD patients. PRNP codon 129 and APOE genotype had complex effects on biomarkers in all diseases, making stratification by genotype a powerful tool. In females (AUC:0.78; 95% CI:0.65-0.91) and patients older than 70 (AUC:0.78; 95% CI:0.62-0.93), tau was able to differentiate with moderate accuracy between cAD and rpAD patients. Implementation of stratum-specific reference ranges improves the diagnostic accuracy of CSF biomarkers for the differential diagnosis of rapidly progressive dementia. Diagnostic criteria developed for this setting have to take this into account.

  1. Demographic transition in India: an evolutionary interpretation of population and health trends using 'change-point analysis'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goli, Srinivas; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam

    2013-01-01

    Lack of a robust analytical tool for trend analysis of population and health indicators is the basic rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances 'Change-Point analyzer' as a new analytical tool for assessment of the progress and its pattern in population and health indicators. The defining feature of 'change-point analyzer' is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. A long-term assessment of 'change-point analyses' of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, Population size, TFR, and LEB in India show multiple points of critical changes. Measured change points of demographic and health trends helps in understanding the demographic transitional shifts connecting it to contextual policy shifts. Critical change-points in population and health indicators in India are associated with the evolution of structural changes in population and health policy framework. This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population and health indicators vis-a-vis population and health policy shifts in India. The results have not only helped in reassessing the historical past and the current demographic transition trajectory but also advanced a new method of assessing the population and health trends which are necessary for robust monitoring of the progress in population and health policies.

  2. [Familial prostate cancer research: meaningfulness of hereditary criteria in view of demographic change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herkommer, K; Heimpel, M; Gschwend, J E

    2014-12-01

    In view of demographic changes and previous research results, it is debatable whether hereditary criteria should be further applied when it comes to determining the status of prostate carcinoma (PC) patients. A total of 30,455 patients in the national research program "Familial Prostate Carcinoma" were divided into four groups based on birth year: I: 1920-1929 (n = 3.968), II: 1930-1939 (n = 14.110), III: 1940-1949 (n = 10.137), IV: 1950-1959 (n = 2.169). In all, 9.316 PC patients with a positive family history were analyzed with respect to their relatives (first degree). The average number of siblings (group I: 3.3; IV: 2.2), brothers (I: 2.1; IV: 1.3), children (I: 2.2; IV: 1.7), and sons (I: 1.1; IV: 0.9) have decreased. The number of patients without a brother/son (I: 9.6/32.8%; IV: 27.6/37.5%) has increased. In the same period of time, the number of patients with two brothers/sons (I: 34.5/6.3%; IV: 14.8/2.2 %) has decreased. The number of fathers > 65 years has risen from 66.8% (I) to 71.1% (IV). Hereditary criteria are less and less suited in order to determine the status of PC patients. However, positive family history remains one of the most crucial risk factors of prostate carcinoma and, therefore, detailed data ascertainment should be urged.

  3. Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: revisiting a traditional debate with new data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Poppel, F.W.A.; Reher, D.S.; Sanz-Gimeno, A.; Sanchez-Dominguez, M.; Beekink, E.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND According to classic demographic transition theory, mortality change is the key factor that triggers a decline in fertility. Research on this topic has mostly relied on aggregate or time series data. Since fertility is based on the joint decisions of couples when confronted with specific

  4. The Impacts of Demographic Change: Young Workers, Older Workers and the Consequences for Education, Skills and Employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, John; O'Connor, Henrietta

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to introduce the key themes in the area of the impact of demographic change on young workers and older workers in relation to education, skills and employment, as discussed in the papers included in this section. The authors have also drawn upon data from their project "From Young Workers to Older…

  5. Districts' Responses to Demographic Change: Making Sense of Race, Class, and Immigration in Political and Organizational Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Erica O.

    2015-01-01

    Many U.S. public school systems now face three large demographic shifts: rising poverty, the growing number of students from immigrant families, and increasing populations of students of color. Yet, we know little about how district policymakers react to these important changes or indeed the factors that consistently shape their policymaking.…

  6. Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

    2017-04-01

    Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

  7. Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2016-03-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

  8. Rapid Treatment-Induced Brain Changes in Pediatric CRPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2014-01-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex-and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray (PAG), two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation. PMID:25515312

  9. Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honan, Meg

    2015-01-01

    Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

  10. Effects of rapid changes in temperature on two estuarine crustaceans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, D.T.; Capizzi, T.P.; Margrey, S.L.; Wakefield, W.W.

    1981-01-01

    Weight specific oxygen consumption (Q/sub O/sub 2// patterns of the amphipod, Gammarus sp. (acclimated to 5/sup 0/, 15/sup 0/ and 25/sup 0/ C) and of juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus (15/sup 0/ and 25/sup 0/ C) were used to evaluate the potential effect of exposure to rapid temperature changes simulating once-through power plant pumped entrainment. Amphipods at all acclimation temperatures and blue crabs at 15/sup 0/ C responded to the temperature changes by increasing Q/sub O/sub 2// above pre-exposure levels after the thermal increase and then returning to pre-exposure levels. The response was judged to be a normal physiological compensation response, not a thermal stress response, as suggested by some investigators. Significant differences were found among seasonal Q/sub O/sub 2// patterns in both species; Q/sub O/sub 2// increased with increasing acclimation temperature. However, no seasonal stress effects were found as a result of exposure to the temperature changes. This implies that the effects of ..delta..T's up to 10(/sup 0/C) from power plants of this design should have no significant impact on these organisms.

  11. "CITY 2020+": assessing climate change impacts for the city of Aachen related to demographic change and health - a progress report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, C.; Balzer, C.; Buttstädt, M.; Eßer, K.; Ginski, S.; Hahmann, J.; Ketzler, G.; Klemme, M.; Kröpelin, A.; Merbitz, H.; Michael, S.; Sachsen, T.; Siuda, A.; Weishoff-Houben, M.; Brunk, M. F.; Dott, W.; Hofmeister, H.; Pfaffenbach, C.; Roll, C.; Selle, K.

    2011-09-01

    The research initiative CITY 2020+ assesses the risks and opportunities for residents in urban built environments under projected demographic and climate change for the year 2020 and beyond, using the city of Aachen as a case study. CITY 2020+ develops strategies, options and tools for planning and developing sustainable future city structures. The investigation focuses on how urban environment, political structure and residential behaviour can best be adapted, with attention to the interactions among structural, political, and sociological configurations and their impacts on human health. The interdisciplinary research is organized in three clusters. Within the first cluster, strategies of older people exposed to heat stress, and their networks as well as environmental health risks according to atmospheric conditions are examined. The second cluster addresses governance questions, urban planning and building technologies as well as spatial patterns of the urban heat island. The third cluster includes studies on air quality related to particulate matter and a historical perspective of city development concerning environmental issues and climate variability. However, it turns out that research topics that require an interdisciplinary approach are best addressed not by pre-structuring the work into related sub-projects but through combining them according to shared methodological approaches. Examples illustrating this rather practical approach within ongoing research are presented in this paper.

  12. Rapid genomic DNA changes in allotetraploid fish hybrids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J; Ye, L H; Liu, Q Z; Peng, L Y; Liu, W; Yi, X G; Wang, Y D; Xiao, J; Xu, K; Hu, F Z; Ren, L; Tao, M; Zhang, C; Liu, Y; Hong, Y H; Liu, S J

    2015-06-01

    Rapid genomic change has been demonstrated in several allopolyploid plant systems; however, few studies focused on animals. We addressed this issue using an allotetraploid lineage (4nAT) of freshwater fish originally derived from the interspecific hybridization of red crucian carp (Carassius auratus red var., ♀, 2n=100) × common carp (Cyprinus carpio L., ♂, 2n=100). We constructed a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library from allotetraploid hybrids in the 20th generation (F20) and sequenced 14 BAC clones representing a total of 592.126 kb, identified 11 functional genes and estimated the guanine-cytosine content (37.10%) and the proportion of repetitive elements (17.46%). The analysis of intron evolution using nine orthologous genes across a number of selected fish species detected a gain of 39 introns and a loss of 30 introns in the 4nAT lineage. A comparative study based on seven functional genes among 4nAT, diploid F1 hybrids (2nF1) (first generation of hybrids) and their original parents revealed that both hybrid types (2nF1 and 4nAT) not only inherited genomic DNA from their parents, but also demonstrated rapid genomic DNA changes (homoeologous recombination, parental DNA fragments loss and formation of novel genes). However, 4nAT presented more genomic variations compared with their parents than 2nF1. Interestingly, novel gene fragments were found for the iqca1 gene in both hybrid types. This study provided a preliminary genomic characterization of allotetraploid F20 hybrids and revealed evolutionary and functional genomic significance of allopolyploid animals.

  13. Impact of demographic change, socioeconomics, and health care resources on life expectancy in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Moon Fai; Taylor, Beverly Joan

    2013-05-01

    Demographic and socioeconomic changes and the availability of health care resources were collected to examine the impacts on life expectancy in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. An ecological design collecting 29 years (1980-2008) data for three Southeast Asian countries. Life expectancy, demographics, socioeconomic status, and health care resources were collected. The structural equation model indicates that more available health care resources and socioeconomic advantages were more likely to increase life expectancy. By contrast, demographic change was more likely to increase life expectancy by way of health care resources. Results show that factors that had direct impacts on life expectancy in all three countries were socioeconomic status and health care resources. Demographic changes had an indirect influence on life expectancy via health care resources. These findings suggest that policymakers should be focusing on how to remove the barriers that impede access to health care services during economic downturns. In addition, how to increase preventive care for the populations that have less access to health care in communities. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaer Thomason, Meghan J; Rice, Kevin J

    2017-01-01

    It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented), seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

  15. Secondary Labor in the Meatpacking Industry: Demographic Change and Student Mobility in Rural Iowa Schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grey, Mark A.

    1997-01-01

    Two case studies address the relationship between dual labor markets and rural schools, particularly the demographic transformation of rural school districts that host meatpacking plants that recruit immigrant workers. These schools have experienced an increase in non- and limited-English-speaking students. Employee turnover is reflected in school…

  16. Demographic Changes in Russia as a Precondition for the Modernization of the Education System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimashevskaia, N. M.; Dobrokhleb, V. G.; Kislitsyna, O. A.

    2010-01-01

    The demographic situation in the Russian Federation is characterized by a steady process of natural population loss; it began in 1992 and coincided with the economic crisis. To a partial extent the loss was made up for by migration, and by early 2008 the number of inhabitants of Russia declined to 142 million compared to 148.6 million in early…

  17. Pheromones-based sexual selection in a rapidly changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henneken, Jessica; Jones, Therésa M

    2017-12-01

    Insects utilise chemical cues for a range of different purposes and the complexity and degree of specificity of these signals is arguably unparalleled in the animal kingdom. Chemical signals are particularly important for insect reproduction and the selective pressures driving their evolution and maintenance have been the subject of previous reviews. However, the world in which chemical cues evolved and are maintained is changing at an unprecedented rate. How (or indeed whether) chemical signals used in sexual selection will respond is largely unknown. Here, we explore how recent increases in urbanisation and associated anthropogenic impacts may affect how chemical signals are produced and perceived. We focus on four anthropomorphic influences which have the potential to interact with pheromone-mediated sexual selection processes; climatic temperature shifts, exposure to chemical pollutants, the presence of artificial light at night and nutrient availability. Our aim is to provide a broad overview of key areas where the rapidly changing environment of the future might specifically affect pheromones utilised in sexual selection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Impact of Quaternary climatic changes and interspecific competition on the demographic history of a highly mobile generalist carnivore, the coyote.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koblmüller, Stephan; Wayne, Robert K; Leonard, Jennifer A

    2012-08-23

    Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote (Canis latrans) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.

  19. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  20. Rapid Middle Eocene temperature change in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Methner, Katharina; Mulch, Andreas; Fiebig, Jens; Wacker, Ulrike; Gerdes, Axel; Graham, Stephan A.; Chamberlain, C. Page

    2016-09-01

    Eocene hyperthermals are among the most enigmatic phenomena of Cenozoic climate dynamics. These hyperthermals represent temperature extremes superimposed on an already warm Eocene climate and dramatically affected the marine and terrestrial biosphere, yet our knowledge of temperature and rainfall in continental interiors is still rather limited. We present stable isotope (δ18O) and clumped isotope temperature (Δ47) records from a middle Eocene (41 to 40 Ma) high-elevation mammal fossil locality in the North American continental interior (Montana, USA). Δ47 paleotemperatures of soil carbonates delineate a rapid +9/-11 °C temperature excursion in the paleosol record. Δ47 temperatures progressively increase from 23 °C ± 3 °C to peak temperatures of 32 °C ± 3 °C and subsequently drop by 11 °C. This hyperthermal event in the middle Eocene is accompanied by low δ18O values and reduced pedogenic carbonate concentrations in paleosols. Based on laser ablation U/Pb geochronology of paleosol carbonates in combination with magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, stable isotope, and Δ47 evidence, we suggest that this pronounced warming event reflects the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) in western North America. The terrestrial expression of northern hemisphere MECO in western North America appears to be characterized by warmer and wetter (sub-humid) conditions, compared to the post-MECO phase. Large and rapid shifts in δ18O values of precipitation and pedogenic CaCO3 contents parallel temperature changes, indicating the profound impact of the MECO on atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns in the western North American continental interior during this transient warming event.

  1. Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Shapcott

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m. For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species.

  2. Evaluation of immediate soft tissue changes after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki Beom Kim

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate immediate soft tissue changes following rapid maxillary expansion (RME in growing patients, using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT. METHODS: Twenty-three consecutive patients (10 male, 13 female treated by RME were selected. Patients were scanned using CBCT prior to placement of the rapid maxillary expander (T0, then immediately following full activation of the appliance (T1. Defined landmarks were then located on the pre- and post-treatment orientated images. Change in landmark position from pre- to post-treatment was then measured. In addition to landmarks, 10 direct measures were made to determine distance change without regard to direction to measure soft tissue change of the lips. RESULTS: Significant transverse expansion was measured on most soft tissue landmark locations. All the measures made showed significant change in the lip position with a lengthening of the vertical dimension of the upper lip, and a generalized decrease of anterior-posterior thickness of both the upper and lower lips. CONCLUSIONS: Significant changes in the soft tissue do occur with RME treatment. There is a transverse widening of the midface, and a thinning of the lips.OBJETIVO: avaliar as mudanças imediatas no tecido mole após a expansão rápida da maxila (ERM em pacientes em fase de crescimento, usando tomografia computadorizada de feixe cônico (TCFC. MÉTODOS: vinte e três pacientes (10 do sexo masculino e 13 do feminino tratados com ERM foram selecionados. Os pacientes foram escaneados por TCFC antes da implantação do expansor maxilar (T0 e imediatamente após a completa ativação do aparelho (T1. Pontos cefalométricos definidos foram localizados nas imagens pré- e pós-tratamento. As mudanças de posição desses pontos do pré- para o pós-tratamento foram, então, analisadas. Adicionalmente aos pontos, 10 medições diretas foram realizadas para determinar a mudança nas distâncias - independentemente da direção - nos

  3. Human relations with soil are changing rapidly: SSSA's new Work Group on Soil Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humanity has rapidly become Earth’s chief agent of soil change, and geologists have named the epoch in which we live the Anthropocene, due to the global scale of human impact on the environment, including soil. In response to the increasing influence of humans on soil processes, the disciplines of ...

  4. Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Webb; Schuster, Stephan C; Welch, Andreanna J; Ratan, Aakrosh; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C; Zhao, Fangqing; Kim, Hie Lim; Burhans, Richard C; Drautz, Daniela I; Wittekindt, Nicola E; Tomsho, Lynn P; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Peacock, Elizabeth; Farley, Sean; Sage, George K; Rode, Karyn; Obbard, Martyn; Montiel, Rafael; Bachmann, Lutz; Ingólfsson, Olafur; Aars, Jon; Mailund, Thomas; Wiig, Oystein; Talbot, Sandra L; Lindqvist, Charlotte

    2012-09-04

    Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5-10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4-5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

  5. Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Webb; Schuster, Stephan C.; Welch, Andreanna J.; Ratan, Aakrosh; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C.; Zhao, Fangqing; Kim, Hie Lim; Burhans, Richard C.; Drautz, Daniela I.; Wittekindt, Nicola E.; Tomsho, Lynn P.; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Peacock, Elizabeth; Farley, Sean; Sage, George K.; Rode, Karyn; Obbard, Martyn E.; Montiel, Rafael; Bachmann, Lutz; Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Aars, Jon; Mailund, Thomas; Wiig, Øystein; Talbot, Sandra L.; Lindqvist, Charlotte

    2012-01-01

    Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

  6. Socio-demographic influences on language structure and change: Not all learners are the same.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergmann, Till; Dale, Rick; Lupyan, Gary

    2016-01-01

    The Now-or-Never bottleneck has important consequence for understanding why languages have the structures they do. However, not addressed by C&C is that the bottleneck may interact with who is doing the learning: While some languages are mostly learned by infants, others have a large share of adult learners. We argue that such socio-demographic differences extend and qualify C&C's thesis.

  7. The Dominance of Food Supply in Changing Demographic Factors across Africa: A Model Using a Systems Identification Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualiang Wei

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Demographic indicators linked to general health have been strongly linked to economic development. However, change in such indicators is also associated with other factors such as climate, water availability, and diet. Here, we use a systems modelling approach, bringing together a range of environmental, economic, dietary, and health factors, to seek possible dominant causes of demographic change across Africa. A continent-wide, north-south transect of countries allows for the exploration of a range of climates, while a longitudinal transect from the Atlantic to the Red Sea provides a range of socio-economic factors within the similar climatic regime of Sahelian Africa. While change in national life expectancy and death rate since 1960 is modelled to be linked to a varying number and type of factors across the transects, the dominant factor in improving these demographic indicators across the continent is food availability. This has been strongly modulated by HIV infection rates in recent decades in some countries.

  8. Securing the Continuity of Medical Competence in Times of Demographic Change: A Proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasebrook, Joachim Paul; Hinkelmann, Jürgen; Volkert, Thomas; Rodde, Sibyll; Hahnenkamp, Klaus

    2016-12-21

    University hospitals make up the backbone of medical and economic services of hospitals in Germany: they qualify specialist physicians, ensure medical research, and provide highly specialized maximum medical care, which other hospitals cannot undertake. In addition to this assignment, medical research and academic teaching must be managed despite a growing shortage of specialist physicians. By the year 2020, the need for the replacement of retired physicians and increased demand will total 30,000 positions. The situation will become more difficult because, on the whole, patients are becoming older and sicker and because specialist physicians are able to find more attractive working conditions in smaller hospitals, abroad, or outside of curative medicine. In order to retain sufficient qualified employees, major improvements in quality are required in terms of working and training conditions. For this purpose, a sustainable innovation process is necessary, which incorporates solutions from outside of the health care sector in order to be able to learn from experiences and mistakes from other industries. The FacharztPlus project aims to find suitable measures in order to retain specialist physicians for more years after the completion of 5 years of professional training. This should determine the suitability of additional qualifications alongside the professional career and an expertise-related work organization oriented to different stages of life. Structured interviews, surveys, and repertory grids are used as preparation for cross-industry expert panels to create future work scenarios for university hospitals. Industries involved are harbor logistics (container terminal), airports, and digitized industrial production ("industry 4.0") because these industries are also facing a shortage of qualified staff and have to respond to rapidly changing demands. Based on the experts' scenarios, consensus groups will be established in each university hospital trying to reach

  9. Estimating synchronous demographic changes across populations using hABC and its application for a herpetological community from northeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehara, Marcelo; Garda, Adrian A; Werneck, Fernanda P; Oliveira, Eliana F; da Fonseca, Emanuel M; Camurugi, Felipe; Magalhães, Felipe de M; Lanna, Flávia M; Sites, Jack W; Marques, Ricardo; Silveira-Filho, Ricardo; São Pedro, Vinícius A; Colli, Guarino R; Costa, Gabriel C; Burbrink, Frank T

    2017-09-01

    Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion-contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single-locus data, we can now perform large-scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single-locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric-adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Optical Defocus Rapidly Changes Choroidal Thickness in Schoolchildren.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danyang Wang

    Full Text Available The current study aimed to examine the short-term choroidal response to optical defocus in schoolchildren. Myopic schoolchildren aged 8-16 were randomly allocated to control group (CG, myopic defocus group (MDG and hyperopic defocus group (HDG (n = 17 per group. Children in MDG and HDG received additional +3D and -3D lenses, respectively, to their full corrections on the right eyes. Full correction was given to their left eyes, and on both eyes in the CG. Axial length (AXL and subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFChT were then measured by spectral domain optical coherence tomography. Children wore their group-specific correction for 2 hours after which any existing optical defocus was removed, and subjects wore full corrections for another 2 hours. Both the AXL and SFChT were recorded hourly for 4 hours. The mean refraction of all subjects was -3.41 ± 0.37D (± SEM. SFChT thinned when exposed to hyperopic defocus for 2 hours but less thinning was observed in response to myopic defocus compared to the control group (p < 0.05, two-way ANOVA. Removal of optical defocus significantly decreased SFChT in the MDG and significantly increased SFChT in the HDG after 1 and 2 hours (mean percentage change at 2-hour; control vs. hyperopic defocus vs. myopic defocus; -0.33 ± 0.59% vs. 3.04 ± 0.60% vs. -1.34 ± 0.74%, p < 0.01. Our results showed short-term exposure to myopic defocus induced relative choroidal thickening while hyperopic defocus led to choroidal thinning in children. This rapid and reversible choroidal response may be an important clinical parameter in gauging retinal response to optical defocus in human myopia.

  11. Predicting demographically sustainable rates of adaptation : Can great tit breeding time keep pace with climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gienapp, Phillip; Lof, Marjolein; Reed, Thomas E.; McNamara, John; Verhulst, Simon; Visser, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    Populations need to adapt to sustained climate change, which requires micro-evolutionary change in the long term. A key question is how the rate of this micro-evolutionary change compares with the rate of environmental change, given that theoretically there is a 'critical rate of environmental

  12. Demographic change, labour force dynamics and employment: new problems and old politics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmaier, U

    1989-07-01

    The paper examines the problems for social protection and economic growth that arise from the development of a dualistic labor force-- divided into a privileged core and a disadvantaged periphery--created by the dynamic interaction of labor supply rigidities and rapid technological growth. It concluded that reforms of labor market institutions have to be introduced in order to solve the existing problems.

  13. Demographic Change and the New (and Not so New) Challenges for Latino Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gándara, Patricia; Mordechay, Kfir

    2017-01-01

    Latino students now make up 1 in 4 public school students in the United States and are a rapidly growing population in nontraditional settlement areas. Yet persistent racial and ethnic disparities in educational achievement and attainment are cause for grave concern, as high school graduation and postsecondary-education are increasingly necessary…

  14. Hydrothermal iron flux variability following rapid sea level changes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Middleton, Jennifer L; Langmuir, Charles H; Mukhopadhyay, Sujoy; McManus, Jerry F; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2016-01-01

    .... Mir sediments reveal sixfold to eightfold increases in hydrothermal iron and copper deposition during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by a rapid decline during the sea level rise associated with deglaciation...

  15. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Dressler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  16. [Change in the socio-demographic profile of consumers of organic produce].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Maristela Costamilan; Müller, Cátia Regina; Rodrigues, Fernanda Souza Abduch; Moutinho, Angélica Bandeira Afonso; Rodrigues, Kelly Lameiro; Botelho, Fabiana Torma

    2015-09-01

    The scope of this study was to establish the socio-demographic profile, health status and the relationship with the consumption of organic produce among consumers who frequent different agroecological street markets in Pelotas in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. A questionnaire was given to the consumers of organic produce while shopping in the agroecological street markets. It was found that the consumers with lower education levels and lower income began to frequent the agroecological street markets more often and consume more organic foods. The consumers were concerned about their health and nutrition status with very few of them having a diagnosis of disease, there being different motivations influencing the purchase of organic food.

  17. Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Beznoska

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As a result of high net migration, both Germany’s overall population and its workforce potential are currently growing. However, within a few years this demographic trend will be reversed, leading to a decline in population as a whole and especially in the number of those gainfully employed. In this paper, we use a population projection to apply a static ageing approach to German micro data. Then, we simulate income tax revenue with a microsimulation model for the future population. In 20 years’ time the annual price-adjusted income tax loss is estimated to be equal to € 18 billion or almost 7 per cent. This fall in income tax revenue resulting from a shrinking and ageing society will place a huge strain on public finances in Germany, an effect further enhanced by the shift of the tax burden from pension contributions to pension benefits.

  18. Women in Physics in a Rapidly Changing China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling-An

    2008-03-01

    Despite the upheavals of the 20th century, physics managed to survive quite well in China, where the first woman president of the American Physical Society was born and bred. During the 1950s as a result of policies that emphasized science and engineering, declared equal rights and equal pay for men and women, and assigned jobs to college graduates irrespective of sex, the number of women in physics increased rapidly, many of whom made notable achievements. Since China's opening up over the last thirty years tremendous changes have taken place, and women now face new opportunities as well as challenges in all aspects of society. Whereas physics used to be regarded as the most elite of the sciences, new fields such as computer science, biotechnology and business are now competing for the best students. Compared with other countries the statistics are not bad; in schools and many physics departments the ratio of women teachers may be 30% or higher, but the numbers drop drastically with rank. Moreover, in some research institutions the ratio of female physicists is actually declining, due to retirement of the older generation and fewer successors. Compulsory retirement for women at an earlier age than for men is also a new factor. Conversely, in recent years the ratio of female graduate students enrolling in physics has increased, even reaching 40% in some universities. However, the reasons for this do not bode well: men are not performing so well as women in entrance exams, while the latter are facing increasing discrimination in employment so they have to seek higher degree qualifications. With the further development of China's economy there will be abundant demand for qualified personnel including women with a physics background. It is imperative to actively support the upcoming generation of women physicists and not lose them in the leaky pipeline. The Chinese Physical Society has taken certain positive steps, such as the recent establishment of the Xie Xi

  19. Demographic anthropology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, N

    1986-01-01

    In this review of the literature, the author focuses on the changes in demographic anthropology, generally since 1970, with greater emphasis on the literature since 1980. 20 years ago the literature on population in the field of anthropology was sparse, inconsistent, and frequently full of factual and logical errors. Part of the problem was that anthropologists did not apply demographic techniques to their research. In the 1980s, communication between anthropology and demography has increased significantly. Methodological advances in demography have helped anthropologists overcome problems in describing and estimating parameters of populations. New techniques include estimations of demographic parameters from the close study of kinship, computer simulations, model life tables, and techniques in paleodemography. The author discusses microanalysis and includes examples of some of the best known and most detailed quantitative studies of small populations from the 1970s and 1980s. The author then reviews macrostudies where attention is directed to the problems of boundedness of small populations and their rates of change and influence from outside over time, including 1) basic research on concepts; 2) primate population and social organization; 3) paleodemography; 4) population problems in huter-gatherer studies; 5) population problems in archeology; 6) the origin of agriculture; and 7) diet and population. Next the author discusses theoretical overviews of 3 areas of demography: 1) population and demography, 2) population and social structure, and 3) population and cultural evolution. Implications for future research include 1) creating a standard methodology for studying populations; 2) creating a clear vocabulary; 3) publishing in high quality journals; 4) establishing a data bank to encourage secondary analysis of materials and their use in comparative studies; 5) reconsidering and republishing previous research; 6) saving raw data, producing descriptive tables

  20. Rapid method to estimate temperature changes in electronics elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oborskii G. A., Savel’eva O. S., Shikhireva Yu. V.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Thermal behavior of electronic equipment is the determining factor for performing rapid assessment of the effectiveness of design and operation of the equipment. The assessment method proposed in this article consists in fixation of an infrared video stream from the surface of the device and converting it into a visible flow by means of a thermal imager, splitting it into component colors and their further processing using parabolic transformation. The result of the transformation is the number used as a rapid criterion for estimation of distribution stability of heat in the equipment.

  1. A rapid mitochondrial toxicity assay utilizing rapidly changing cell energy metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanuki, Yosuke; Araki, Tetsuro; Nakazono, Osamu; Tsurui, Kazuyuki

    2017-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury is a major cause of safety-related drug-marketing withdrawals. Several drugs have been reported to disrupt mitochondrial function, resulting in hepatotoxicity. The development of a simple and effective in vitro assay to identify the potential for mitochondrial toxicity is thus desired to minimize the risk of causing hepatotoxicity and subsequent drug withdrawal. An in vitro test method called the "glucose-galactose" assay is often used in drug development but requires prior-culture of cells over several passages for mitochondrial adaptation, thereby restricting use of the assay. Here, we report a rapid version of this method with the same predictability as the original method. We found that replacing the glucose in the medium with galactose resulted in HepG2 cells immediately shifting their energy metabolism from glycolysis to oxidative phosphorylation due to drastic energy starvation; in addition, the intracellular concentration of ATP was reduced by mitotoxicants when glucose in the medium was replaced with galactose. Using our proposed rapid method, mitochondrial dysfunction in HepG2 cells can be evaluated by drug exposure for one hour without a pre-culture step. This rapid assay for mitochondrial toxicity may be more suitable for high-throughput screening than the original method at an early stage of drug development.

  2. Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P

    2001-01-01

    health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

  3. Demographic Changes and Real Estate Values. A Quantitative Model for Analyzing the Urban-Rural Linkages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano Bencardino

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Vast metropolitan areas include both urban areas and rural outskirts. Between these areas, there are strong links to the point which they cannot be examined separately. There is a contemporary presence of residential function and working activity in the rural outskirts, as well as in the typical sector of agriculture. Therefore, the production of goods and services for the city requires a combined analysis, due to the large territory which it has to consider. The evolution of the population of such a large territory can be studied in great detail, with reference to the single census area and with the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS. This means that such a demographic development produces an effect on the values of the urban real estate. This work demonstrates the existing interconnections between urban areas and rural outskirts. Data collection on trends of the population living in the Naples metropolitan area and the house prices associated with this area, and the post spatial processing of such data, allows for the establishment of thematic maps according to which a model capable of interpreting the population development is defined. A study of the statistical correlations shows the consequences that the population dynamics produce for property prices. In addition, the diachronic analysis of the sales prices of residential buildings demonstrates that economic functions, exclusive of certain urban or rural territories, end up distributing and integrating.

  4. Demographic changes in breast cancer incidence, stage at diagnosis and age associated with population-based mammographic screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdial, Francys C; Etzioni, Ruth; Duggan, Catherine; Anderson, Benjamin O

    2017-04-01

    Breast cancer incidence and mortality are influenced by early-detection methods, including mammographic screening. Demographic changes in US statistics serve as a model for changes that can be anticipated in countries where mammographic screening has not been implemented. SEER statistics (1973-2013) for breast cancer mortality, incidence, stage at diagnosis, and age at diagnosis were examined. Temporal associations between screening changes and breast cancer demographics in the US were documented. Before 1982 (pre-screening), breast cancer incidence in the US remained stable, with similar incidence of localized and regional cancers, and with in-situ disease comprising breast cancer incidence increased. In 1991, breast cancer age-adjusted mortality rates began decreasing and have continued to decrease. In the post-screening phase, stage distribution stabilized, but now with localized and in-situ disease representing the majority of diagnosed cases. The median age at diagnosis has increased to 61 years. Mammographic screening increases breast cancer incidence, shifts the stage distribution toward earlier stage disease, and in high-income countries, is associated with improved survival. Whether similar improvement in breast cancer survival can be achieved in the absence of mammographic screening has yet to be conclusively demonstrated. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Assessment of changes in smile after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Morales Cobra de Carvalho

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated changes in the smile characteristics of patients with maxillary constriction submitted to rapid maxillary expansion (RME. METHODS: The sample consisted of 81 extraoral photographs of maximum smile of 27 patients with mean age of 10 years, before expansion and 3 and 6 months after fixation of the expanding screw. The photographs were analyzed on the software Cef X 2001, with achievement of the following measurements: Transverse smile area, buccal corridors, exposure of maxillary incisors, gingival exposure of maxillary incisors, smile height, upper and lower lip thickness, smile symmetry and smile arch. Statistical analysis was performed by analysis of variance (ANOVA, at a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: RME promoted statistically significant increase in the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors; maintenance of right and left side smile symmetry and of the lack of parallelism between the curvature of the maxillary incisal edges and lower lip border. CONCLUSIONS: RME was beneficial for the smile esthetics with the increase of the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors.INTRODUÇÃO: esse estudo avaliou as alterações das características do sorriso de pacientes com atresia maxilar submetidos à expansão rápida da maxila (ERM. MÉTODOS: a amostra consistiu de 81 fotografias extrabucais do sorriso máximo de 27 pacientes, com idade média de 10 anos, antes da expansão e aos três e seis meses após a fixação do parafuso expansor. As análises das fotografias foram realizadas por meio do programa Cef X 2001, e as seguintes medidas foram analisadas: dimensão transversal do sorriso, corredores bucais, quantidade de exposição dos incisivos superiores, exposição gengival dos incisivos superiores, altura do sorriso, espessuras dos lábios superior e inferior, simetria e arco do sorriso. As alterações no sorriso durante

  6. Contemporary demographic changes in settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohija

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vukoičić Danijela

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The settlements along the administrative line in Serbia towards Kosovo and Metohija had a very turbulent demographic changes in the past. These changes have influenced the present. In this paper we investigated the depopulation process of this area which is intensified with the political instability, social and economic changes. The main goal of this research was to analyze the causes and effects in the reduction of the number of inhabitants, as well as the possibility of revitalizing the rural settlements of a given area. To obtain the desired results, we analyzed the existing literature and statistical data, used comparative and historical methods as well as implemented the field surveys. The application of the SWOT analysis to the researched area have showed us the strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats that can effect the process of revitalization of the village.

  7. Climate change induces demographic resistance to disease in novel coral assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakob, Laith; Mumby, Peter J

    2011-02-01

    Climate change is reshaping biological communities and has already generated novel ecosystems. The functioning of novel ecosystems could depart markedly from that of existing systems and therefore obscure the impacts of climate change. We illustrate this possibility for coral reefs, which are at the forefront of climatic stress. Disease has been a principal cause of reef degradation and is expected to worsen with increased future thermal stress. However, using a field-tested epizoological model, we show that high population turnover within novel ecosystems enhances coral resistance to epizootics. Thus, disease could become a less important driver of change in the future. We emphasize the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change.

  8. CHANGES IN LAND USE AS CONSEQUENCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF RURAL TERRITORIES OF THE VOLGOGRAD REGION

    OpenAIRE

    N. V. Vishnyakov; D. A. Semenova

    2016-01-01

    Aim. Analysis of the population dynamics and changes in the share of arable land in the structure of land use separate territory for several historical periods, and to determine the causes of these changes. Methods. Studies have used forwarding, statistical methods, and the method of cartographic modeling and retrospective analysis. Results. Analysis of the results of the population census allows speaking about the general negative dynamics in the rural population of the Volgograd region in g...

  9. Marriage (still) matters: the contribution of demographic change to trends in childlessness in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayford, Sarah R

    2013-10-01

    Childlessness in the United States nearly doubled between 1980 and 2000. Other dramatic changes in the U.S. population also took place over this period-notably, women's average educational attainment increased, and the proportion marrying declined-but the impact of these changes on childlessness has not been formally examined. In this article, I use data from the Current Population Survey Fertility Supplements (1995, 1998, 2004, 2008) and logistic regression and regression-based decomposition techniques to assess the contribution of changes in educational attainment, marriage behavior, and racial/ethnic composition on population levels of childlessness in the United States. Results show that increases in the proportion of women unmarried by age 40 contributed most to the increase in childlessness in the late twentieth century, although these increases were offset somewhat by increased childbearing among unmarried women. The rising proportion of women with a college degree also explained a substantial amount of the increase in childless women.

  10. Added value from European Territorial Co-operation: the impact of demographic change in the Alps on the young

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marot Naja

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article sets demographic change in the Alps in the framework of European Territorial Cooperation programs. A statistical overview of selected regions in five Alpine countries serves as a basis for further policy analysis. The latter was undertaken to reveal how transnational projects tackle youth issues, including the difficulties within the labour and real estate markets that appeared to be the most problematic factors influencing (out migration of the youth. While there is only a minor recognition of the young in current policymaking on supranational, regional and local levels, the analysis showed that the added value of transnational programs for mountain regions and localities can be recognized in the development of multi-stakeholder environments, creating and transferring new solutions for the labour market as well as empowering youth participation in policy processes. However, the extent to which these solutions might contribute to overcoming the challenges of demographic change because of transnational programs is limited by various factors. Among these are the precise governance framework, administrative capacity, and population figures.

  11. Cohort Changes in the Socio-Demographic Determinants of Gender Egalitarianism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampel, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Arguments about the spread of gender egalitarian values through the population highlight several sources of change. First, structural arguments point to increases in the proportion of women with high education, jobs with good pay, commitment to careers outside the family, and direct interests in gender equality. Second, value shift arguments…

  12. Family Size, Looming Demographic Changes and the Efficiency of Social Security Reform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Leers, T.; Meijdam, A.C.

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyses the eeffects of ageing and child support in a model with endogenous fertility and Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions. First, we show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and changes in life expectancy. In particular, we show that the

  13. Effect of Attitudinal, Situational and Demographic Factors on Annoyance Due to Environmental Vibration and Noise from Construction of a Light Rapid Transit System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong-McSweeney, Daniel; Woodcock, James; Waddington, David; Peris, Eulalia; Koziel, Zbigniew; Moorhouse, Andy; Redel-Macías, María Dolores

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine what non-exposure factors influence the relationship between vibration and noise exposure from the construction of a Light Rapid Transit (LRT) system and the annoyance of nearby residents. Noise and vibration from construction sites are known to annoy residents, with annoyance increasing as a function of the magnitude of the vibration and noise. There is not a strong correlation between exposure and levels of annoyance suggesting that factors not directly related to the exposure may have an influence. A range of attitudinal, situational and demographic factors are investigated with the aim of understanding the wide variation in annoyance for a given vibration exposure. A face-to-face survey of residents (n = 350) near three sites of LRT construction was conducted, and responses were compared to semi-empirical estimates of the internal vibration within the buildings. It was found that annoyance responses due to vibration were strongly influenced by two attitudinal variables, concern about property damage and sensitivity to vibration. Age, ownership of the property and the visibility of the construction site were also important factors. Gender, time at home and expectation of future levels of vibration had much less influence. Due to the measurement methods used, it was not possible to separate out the effects of noise and vibration on annoyance; as such, this paper focusses on annoyance due to vibration exposure. This work concludes that for the most cost-effective reduction of the impact of construction vibration and noise on the annoyance felt by a community, policies should consider attitudinal factors. PMID:27983662

  14. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  15. Changes in Sensory Evoked Responses Coincide with Rapid Improvement in Speech Identification Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alain, Claude; Campeanu, Sandra; Tremblay, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Perceptual learning is sometimes characterized by rapid improvements in performance within the first hour of training (fast perceptual learning), which may be accompanied by changes in sensory and/or response pathways. Here, we report rapid physiological changes in the human auditory system that coincide with learning during a 1-hour test session…

  16. Merkel cell carcinoma: Current US incidence and projected increases based on changing demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, Kelly G; Park, Song Youn; Vandeven, Natalie A; Lachance, Kristina; Thomas, Hannah; Chapuis, Aude G; Harms, Kelly L; Thompson, John A; Bhatia, Shailender; Stang, Andreas; Nghiem, Paul

    2018-03-01

    Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) incidence rates are rising and strongly age-associated, relevant for an aging population. Determine MCC incidence in the United States and project incident cases through the year 2025. Registry data were obtained from the SEER-18 Database, containing 6600 MCC cases. Age- and sex-adjusted projections were generated using US census data. During 2000-2013, the number of reported solid cancer cases increased 15%, melanoma cases increased 57%, and MCC cases increased 95%. In 2013, the MCC incidence rate was 0.7 cases/100,000 person-years in the United States, corresponding to 2488 cases/year. MCC incidence increased exponentially with age, from 0.1 to 1.0 to 9.8 (per 100,000 person-years) among age groups 40-44 years, 60-64 years, and ≥85 years, respectively. Due to aging of the Baby Boomer generation, US MCC incident cases are predicted to climb to 2835 cases/year in 2020 and 3284 cases/year in 2025. We assumed that the age-adjusted incidence rate would stabilize, and thus, the number of incident cases we projected might be an underestimate. An aging population is driving brisk increases in the number of new MCC cases in the United States. This growing impact combined with the rapidly evolving therapeutic landscape warrants expanded awareness of MCC diagnosis and management. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A population based study of the changing demographics of patients undergoing definitive treatment for kidney stone disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordon, Michael; Urbach, David; Mamdani, Muhammad; Saskin, Refik; Honey, R John D'A; Pace, Kenneth T

    2015-03-01

    We examined temporal changes in the demographics of patients undergoing definitive treatment for kidney stones during a 20-year period in Ontario, Canada. Using the Ontario Health Insurance Plan physician claims database and the Canadian Institute for Health Information Discharge Abstract Database we performed a population based cross-sectional time series analysis by identifying all kidney stone treatments done between July 1, 1991 and December 31, 2010. The demographics assessed were patient gender, age and socioeconomic status. The rate and/or proportion of kidney stone treatments per strata of these demographics were calculated for each 1-year block of the study period. We used time series analysis with exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models to assess for trends with time. We identified 116,115 patients who underwent treatment for kidney stones during the study period. The rate of stone procedures performed per year increased steadily from 85/100,000 to 126/100,000 population. With time the rate of females who were treated increased significantly from 40/100,000 to 53/100,000 (p <0.0001). In contrast, the rate of males who were treated remained stable, increasing from 82/100,000 to 83/100,000 (p = 0.11). In regard to age the rate of patients older than 64 years increased significantly with time from 67/100,000 to 89/100,000 (p <0.0001). In regard to socioeconomic status approximately 20% of the patients were in each of the 5 income quintiles during the entire study period. Our population based study shows an increased rate of females and of patients older than 64 years undergoing definitive treatment for kidney stones with time. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Changes in nasal volume of patients undergoing rapid maxillary expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Muniz, Renata Da Fonseca Lacerda E; Mario Cappellette Jr.; Daniela Carlini

    2008-01-01

    Os efeitos da disjunção maxilar na resistência nasal e fluxo aéreo têm sido amplamente discutidos na literatura, com controvérsias. Suas indicações esqueléticas e dentárias parecem estar bem claras. Porém, aquelas puramente rinológicas não são justificadas, porque nem sempre resultados positivos são encontrados. Este estudo teve por finalidade avaliar a repercussão da disjunção maxilar ortopédica no aspecto respiratório e rinológico dos pacientes submetidos a esse procedimento.Rapid maxillary...

  19. CHANGES IN LAND USE AS CONSEQUENCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF RURAL TERRITORIES OF THE VOLGOGRAD REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Vishnyakov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Analysis of the population dynamics and changes in the share of arable land in the structure of land use separate territory for several historical periods, and to determine the causes of these changes. Methods. Studies have used forwarding, statistical methods, and the method of cartographic modeling and retrospective analysis. Results. Analysis of the results of the population census allows speaking about the general negative dynamics in the rural population of the Volgograd region in general and river basin Bolshaya Golubaya in particular. Historical and cartographic analysis has shown the dependence of the arable lands of the number of residents on the territory residents. In addition, the population of the territory is significantly affected by soil fertility. Main conclusions. The population of the river basin Bolshaya Golubaya over the past hundred years have steadily decreased, as due to various socio-economic reasons, such as consolidation of rural settlements, the planned destruction of farm system, moving people into the city, and due to the difficult climatic conditions for farming: poor soil fertility, high degree of erosion areas, poor soil conditions of the territory.

  20. Empirical study on impact of demographic and economic changes on pension cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty

    2014-06-01

    A continuation of the same financial standard of living after retirement as before is very importance to retired person. The pension provider has a responsibility to ensure their employees receive the sufficient benefit after retirement and regularly monitor the factors that cause insufficient funds to pay benefit to retirees. Insufficient funds may be due to increased in pension cost. Some of the factors that increase the cost of pensions are changes in mortality rates and interest rates. This study will used these two factors to determine their sensitivity to pension cost. Two methods which are Accrued Benefit Cost Method and Projected Benefit Cost Method will be used to estimate pension cost. Interest rates has a inversely related to pension cost while mortality rates has a directly related to pension cost.

  1. Mapping sleeping sickness in Western Africa in a context of demographic transition and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecchi, G; Courtin, F; Paone, M; Diarra, A; Franco, J R; Mattioli, R C; Simarro, P P

    2009-06-01

    Human population growth, climate change and economic development are causing major environmental modifications in Western Africa, which will have important repercussions on the epidemiology of sleeping sickness. A new initiative, the Atlas of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), aims at assembling and geo-referencing all epidemiological data derived from both active screening activities and passive surveillance. A geographic database enables to generate up-to-date disease maps at a range of scales and of unprecedented spatial accuracy. We present preliminary results for seven West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali and Togo) and briefly discuss the relevance of the Atlas for future monitoring, control and research activities.

  2. Historical, Demographic, and Economic Correlates of Land-Use Change in the Republic of Panama

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Joseph. Wright

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Republic of Panama recently experienced a limited forest transition. After five decades of decline, the total forest cover increased by 0.36% yr-1 between 1992 and 2000; however, mature forest cover simultaneously decreased by 1.3% yr-1. This limited forest transition at the national scale comprised two distinctly different patterns of recent forest-cover change related to historical land use. Districts that were largely deforested when the first national survey of forest cover was completed in 1947 experienced a strong forest transition between 1992 and 2000. In these, the proportion of the population employed in agriculture decreased by an average of 31% and natural secondary forest succession increased the total forest cover by an average of 85% between 1992 and 2000. In contrast, no forest transition was evident for districts that were largely forested in 1947. In these, the absolute number of people employed in agriculture remained constant, old-growth forest cover decreased by 8% on average, and natural secondary forest succession increased, so that the total forest cover tended to be static between 1992 and 2000. Historical land use, an index of human poverty, and the population density of agricultural workers explained 61% of the among-district variation in forest cover in 2000, with forest concentrated in areas where populations were small and poor. Historical land use and gross income per hectare from agriculture explained 23.5% of the among-district variation in forest-cover change between 1992 and 2000. The early history of forest loss, an uneven distribution of people, and disparities in farm income contributed to the limited forest transition observed in Panama.

  3. Rapid response to climate change in a marginal sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Josey, S A; Borghini, M; Aracri, S; Sparnocchia, S

    2017-06-22

    The Mediterranean Sea is a mid-latitude marginal sea, particularly responsive to climate change as reported by recent studies. The Sicily Channel is a choke point separating the sea in two main basins, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Here, we report and analyse a long-term record (1993-2016) of the thermohaline properties of the Intermediate Water that crosses the Sicily Channel, showing increasing temperature and salinity trends much stronger than those observed at intermediate depths in the global ocean. We investigate the causes of the observed trends and in particular determine the role of a changing climate over the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Intermediate Water is formed. The long-term Sicily record reveals how fast the response to climate change can be in a marginal sea like the Mediterranean Sea compared to the global ocean, and demonstrates the essential role of long time series in the ocean.

  4. Rapid millennial-scale vegetation changes in the tropical Andes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urrego, D.H.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Rama-Corredor, O.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J.O.; Thompson, L.

    2015-01-01

    We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 50 ka, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore ordination results as two approaches for

  5. THE MAIN DEMOGRAPHICS CHANGES IN THE POPULATION OF BACĂU COUNTY AT THE LAST CENSUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia Harja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Livestock population and its structure is the starting point for all development strategies at both micro and macro level, reason for which accurate knowledge of it is one of the main objectives of official statistics in each state. The analysis aims to highlight the major changes produced after the 90s in terms of population of Bacău county and its structure, with time effects on economic and social activity. Both the 2002 and 2011 census, Bacău was top of the list with an absolute decrease of the population. This was a concern as it has emerged over time as a stable phenomenon. The main reason for the decrease was due to external migration of the population and secondly because of the internal migration flows of population moving towards large economic centers in the country and abroad that attract labor. As most of the migrants are young and active age groups, this phenomena has led to an aging population and to imbalances that can be observed in the age pyramid, with negative effects becoming larger in the future.

  6. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S

    2018-12-23

    The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Alveolar bone changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Mehmet; Baka, Zeliha Muge; Ileri, Zehra; Basciftci, Faruk Ayhan

    2015-09-01

    To quantitatively evaluate the effects of asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) on cortical bone thickness and buccal alveolar bone height (BABH), and to determine the formation of dehiscence and fenestration in the alveolar bone surrounding the posterior teeth, using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT records of 23 patients with true unilateral posterior skeletal crossbite (10 boys, 14.06 ± 1.08 years old, and 13 girls, 13.64 ± 1.32 years old) who had undergone ARME were selected from our clinic archives. The bonded acrylic ARME appliance, including an occlusal stopper, was used on all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME (T1) and after the 3-month retention period (T2). Axial slices of the CBCT images at 3 vertical levels were used to evaluate the buccal and palatal aspects of the canines, first and second premolars, and first molars. Paired samples and independent sample t-tests were used for statistical comparison. The results suggest that buccal cortical bone thickness of the affected side was significantly more affected by the expansion than was the unaffected side (P ARME significantly reduced the BABH of the canines (P ARME also increased the incidence of dehiscence and fenestration on the affected side. ARME may quantitatively decrease buccal cortical bone thickness and height on the affected side.

  8. Dynamic changes at the rapidly advancing Yahtse Glacier, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkin, William J.; Bartholomaus, Timothy C.; Willis, Michael J.; Pritchard, Matthew E.

    2017-03-01

    Since 1990, Yahtse Glacier in southern Alaska has advanced at an average rate of ˜100 m/yr despite of a negative mass balance, widespread thinning in its accumulation area, and a low accumulation-area ratio. To better understand the interannual and seasonal changes at Yahtse and the processes driving these changes, we construct velocity and ice surface elevation time series spanning the years 1985-2014 and 2000-2014, respectively, using satellite optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. In terms of seasonal changes, we find contrasting dynamics above and below a steep (up to 18% slope) icefall located approximately 6 km from the terminus. Above the icefall, speeds peak in May and reach minima in October synchronous with the development of a calving embayment at the terminus. This may be caused by an efficient, channelized subglacial drainage system that focuses subglacial discharge into a plume, resulting in a local increase in calving and submarine melting. However, velocities near the terminus are fastest in the winter, following terminus retreat, possibly off of a terminal moraine resulting in decreased backstress. Between 1996-2014 the terminus decelerated by ˜40% at an average rate of ˜0.4 m/day/yr , transitioned from tensile to compressive longitudinal strain rates, and dynamically thickened at rates of 1-6 m/yr , which we hypothesize is in response to the development and advance of a terminal moraine. The described interannual changes decay significantly upstream of the icefall, indicating that the icefall may inhibit the upstream transmission of stress perturbations. We suggest that diminished stress transmission across the icefall could allow Yahtse’s upper basin to remain in a state of mass drawdown despite of moraine-enabled terminus advance. Our work highlights the importance of glacier geometry in controlling tidewater glacier re-advance, particularly in a climate favoring increasing equilibrium line altitudes.

  9. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Moeller, Andrew H.; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Pusey, Anne E.; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Ochman, Howard

    2014-01-01

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversificatio...

  10. Rapid isotopic changes in groundwater, upper Rio Guanajuato catchment, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortes, Alejandra; Durazo, Jaime [Departamento de recursos naturales, Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Kralisch, Stefanie [Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2007-01-15

    Significant changes in the isotopic composition of groundwater in the upper catchment of Rio Guanajuato, Mexico, were detected in two independent sets of samplers for 3 % of the 1600 high-production wells in the area. Sampling was done in December 1998 (53 samples), and in July - August 2003 (41 samples). Average deuterium concentration did not change between 1998 and 2003 but the average oxygen-18 concentration suggested a generalized dilution from deep water from infiltrated local precipitation. This regional change occurred within 56 months, indicating a highly dynamic hydrogeologic system. Fast replenishment of aquifer storage, or non sustainable over-pumping of old aquifer reserves, are possible explanations. [Spanish] Cambios isotopicos significativos en el agua subterranea de la cuenca alta del Rio Guanajuato, Mexico, fueron detectados en dos conjuntos independientes de muestras que incluyeron al 3% de los 1600 pozos de alta produccion del area. Los muestreos se realizaron en diciembre de 1998 (53 muestras) y en julio - agosto del 2003 (41 muestras). La concentracion promedio del deuterio no cambio entre 1998 y 2003, pero la del oxigeno-18 sugiere una dilucion generalizada del agua profunda por infiltracion de la precipitacion local. Este cambio regional ocurrio dentro de 56 meses, indicando un sistema hidrogeologico muy dinamico. La rapida recuperacion del almacenamiento acuifero o el bombeo insostenible de reservas acuiferas viejas son explicaciones posibles.

  11. Socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours for climate change mitigation in urban China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Emily Ying Yang; Wang, Susan Shuxin; Ho, Janice Ying-En; Huang, Zhe; Liu, Sida; Guo, Chunlan

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to examine the patterns and socio-demographic predictors of health and environmental co-benefit behaviours that support climate change mitigation in a densely populated Asian metropolis-Hong Kong. A population-based, stratified and cross-sectional random digit dialling telephone survey study was conducted between January and February 2016, among the Cantonese-speaking population aged 15 and above in Hong Kong. Socio-demographic data and the self-reported practice of 10 different co-benefit behaviours were solicited. Ethics approval and participant's verbal consent were sought. The study sample consisted of 1,017 respondents (response rate: 63.6%) were comparable to the age, gender and geographical distributions of the Hong Kong population found in the latest 2011 Hong Kong Population Census. Among the co-benefit behaviours, using less packaging and disposable shopping bags were practiced in the highest frequency (70.1%). However, four behaviours were found to have never been practiced by more than half of the respondents, including bringing personal eating utensils when dining in restaurants or small eateries, showering less than five minutes, having one vegetarian meal a week, and buying more organic food. Results of multivariable logistic regression showed that frequency of practicing co-benefit behaviours were consistently associated with gender and age. Urban residents in Hong Kong do not engage in the practice of co-benefit behaviours in a uniform way. In general, females and older people are more likely to adopt co-benefit behaviours in their daily lives. Further research to assess the knowledge and attitudes of the population towards these co-benefit behaviours will provide support to relevant climate change mitigation policies and education programmes.

  12. Changing the balance of social care for older people: simulating scenarios under demographic ageing in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lay-Yee, Roy; Pearson, Janet; Davis, Peter; von Randow, Martin; Kerse, Ngaire; Brown, Laurie

    2017-05-01

    The demographic ageing of New Zealand society, as elsewhere in the developed world, has dramatically increased the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over) in the population. This has major policy implications for the future organisation of social care. Our objective was to test the effects on social care use, first, of putative changes in the overall disability profile of older people, and second, of alterations to the balance of their care, i.e. whether it was community-based or residential. In order to undertake these experiments, we developed a microsimulation model of the later life course using individual-level data from two official national survey series on health and disability, respectively, to generate a synthetic version which replicated original data and parameter settings. A baseline projection under current settings from 2001 to 2021 showed moderate increases in disability and associated social care use. Artificially decreasing disability levels, below the baseline projection, only moderately reduced the use of community care (both informal and formal). Scenarios implemented by rebalancing towards informal care use moderately reduced formal care use. However, only moderate compensatory increases in community-based care were required to markedly decrease the transition to residential care. The disability impact of demographic ageing may not have a major negative effect on system resources in developed countries like New Zealand. As well as healthy ageing, changing the balance of social care may alleviate the impact of increasing demand due to an expanding population of older people. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-05-01

    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  14. Simulation of rapid ecological change in Lake Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, James E.; Chalupnicki, Marc; Dittman, Dawn E.; Watkins, James M.

    2017-01-01

    Lower trophic level processes are integral to proper functioning of large aquatic ecosystems and have been disturbed in Lake Ontario by various stressors including exotic species. The invasion of benthic habitats by dreissenid mussels has led to systemic changes and native faunal declines. Size-dependent physiological rates, spatial differences and connectivity, competition, and differential population dynamics among invertebrate groups contributed to the change and system complexity. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based mechanistic model of the benthic ecosystem in Lake Ontario, with coupling to the pelagic system, to examine ecosystem dynamics and effects of dreissenid mussel invasion and native fauna losses. Benthic organisms were represented by functional groups; filter-feeders (i.e., dreissenid mussels), surface deposit-feeders (e.g., native amphipod Diporeia spp.), and deposit-feeders (e.g., oligochaetes and other burrowers). The model was stable, represented ecological structure and function effectively, and reproduced observed effects of the mussel invasion. Two hypotheses for causes of Diporeia loss, competition or disease-like mortality, were tested. Simple competition for food did not explain observed declines in native surface deposit-feeders during the filter-feeder invasion. However, the elevated mortality scenario supports a disease-like cause for loss of the native amphipod, with population changes in various lake areas and altered benthic biomass transfers. Stabilization of mussel populations and possible recovery of the native, surface-deposit feeding amphipod were predicted. Although further research is required on forcing functions, model parameters, and natural conditions, the model provides a valuable tool to help managers understand the benthic system and plan for response to future disruptions.

  15. The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

  16. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomara, Lars Y; LeDee, Olivia E; Martin, Karl J; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2014-07-01

    Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability

  17. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2013-01-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  18. Demographic predictors of consistency and change in heterosexuals' attitudes toward homosexual behavior over a two-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Kent; Heywood, Wendy; Simpson, Judy M; Pitts, Marian K; Richters, Juliet; Shelley, Julia M; Smith, Anthony M

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated demographic predictors of consistency and change in heterosexual people's attitudes toward homosexual behavior. A nationally representative sample of Australian men and women were recruited via random digit dialling in 2004 through 2005. Participants completed annual computer-assisted telephone interviews over the next five years. Questions about attitudes toward male and female homosexual behavior were assessed at Wave 1 (2004-2005) and Wave 3 (2006-2007) of the study. The majority of the sample reported tolerance of both male and female homosexual behavior (with women slightly more tolerant than men). Multivariate analyses showed that those who regularly attended religious services were more likely to consistently disapprove of homosexual behavior and more likely to change from tolerant to disapproving. Among those who were initially tolerant, younger respondents and those with higher educations were less likely to become homophobic. The results of this study show that individual attitudes toward homosexual behavior are open to change, particularly toward a more tolerant position. Religiosity appears to be consistently associated with the development and reinforcement of homophobic tendencies.

  19. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2015-02-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

  20. Managing marine disease emergencies in an era of rapid change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groner, Maya L; Maynard, Jeffrey; Breyta, Rachel; Carnegie, Ryan B; Dobson, Andy; Friedman, Carolyn S; Froelich, Brett; Garren, Melissa; Gulland, Frances M D; Heron, Scott F; Noble, Rachel T; Revie, Crawford W; Shields, Jeffrey D; Vanderstichel, Raphaël; Weil, Ernesto; Wyllie-Echeverria, Sandy; Harvell, C Drew

    2016-03-05

    Infectious marine diseases can decimate populations and are increasing among some taxa due to global change and our increasing reliance on marine environments. Marine diseases become emergencies when significant ecological, economic or social impacts occur. We can prepare for and manage these emergencies through improved surveillance, and the development and iterative refinement of approaches to mitigate disease and its impacts. Improving surveillance requires fast, accurate diagnoses, forecasting disease risk and real-time monitoring of disease-promoting environmental conditions. Diversifying impact mitigation involves increasing host resilience to disease, reducing pathogen abundance and managing environmental factors that facilitate disease. Disease surveillance and mitigation can be adaptive if informed by research advances and catalysed by communication among observers, researchers and decision-makers using information-sharing platforms. Recent increases in the awareness of the threats posed by marine diseases may lead to policy frameworks that facilitate the responses and management that marine disease emergencies require. © 2016 The Author(s).

  1. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  2. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Andrew H; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Pusey, Anne E; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ochman, Howard

    2014-11-18

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversification, but human microbiomes have deviated from the ancestral state at an accelerated rate. Relative to the microbiomes of wild apes, human microbiomes have lost ancestral microbial diversity while becoming specialized for animal-based diets. Individual wild apes cultivate more phyla, classes, orders, families, genera, and species of bacteria than do individual humans across a range of societies. These results indicate that humanity has experienced a depletion of the gut flora since diverging from Pan.

  3. Complex interactions in Lake Michigan’s rapidly changing ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Bunnell, David B.; Carrick, Hunter J.; Hook, Tomas O.

    2015-01-01

    For over 30 years, Lake Michigan’s food web has been in a constant state of transition from reductions in nutrient loading and proliferation of invasive species at multiple trophic levels. In particular, there has been concern about impacts from the invasive predatory cercopagids (Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi) and expanding dreissenid mussel and round goby populations. This special issue brings together papers that explore the status of the Lake Michigan food web and the factors responsible for these changes, and suggests research paths that must be taken for understanding and predicting system behavior. This introductory paper describes the special issue origin, presents an overview of the papers, and draws overarching conclusions from the papers.

  4. Rapid maxillary expansion treatment could produce long-term dental arch changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ren, Yijin

    2005-01-01

    : Data Sources: Medline, Medline In-Process, LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature), PUBMED, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched. Search terms were rapid palatal expansion or rapid maxillary expansion (RME) and tooth or dental changes. Reference

  5. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  6. Ethnobiology 5: Interdisciplinarity in an Era of Rapid Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wolverton

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnobiology 5 stems from Eugene Hunn’s four phases of the history of ethnobiology and focuses on the relevance of ethnobiological research in the context of environmental and cultural change.  It refers to a contemporary phase of the field’s historical development.  In this paper, I argue that ethnobiology is preadapted to be a scholarly umbrella for a number of disciplines that concern human-environment interactions, suggesting that one goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to bridge traditional academic boundaries in order to broaden the community of ethnobiologists. Another goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to capitalize on and communicate the relevance of ethnobiological scholarship for solving problems related to contemporary environmental and cultural crises.  Indeed, ethnobiology is not a subfield of any traditional discipline and by the nature of its name bridges humanities, social science, and science.  Ethnobiology has always been interdisciplinary in terms of its subject matter, yet its community of scholars is relatively small compared to mission-driven disciplines, such as conservation biology.  Venues for publication and presentation of ethnobiological research, as well as how ethnobiologists portray their research, are critical to growing ethnobiology.

  7. Clinico-demographic profile, sexual dysfunction and readiness to change in male alcohol dependence syndrome inpatients in a tertiary hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, A K; Sapkota, N; Tambi, A; Shyangwa, P M

    2012-03-01

    Persons with prolonged and heavy alcohol use generally suffer from alcohol dependence syndrome (ADS) and develop physical, sexual as well as psychiatric co-morbidity. Successful recovery to normalcy depends on multiple factors including patient's motivation. To study clinico-demographic profile, reasons for initiating alcohol use, sexual and psychiatric disorders and eagerness for treatment and quitting alcohol in ADS inpatients. Fifty consecutive ADS inpatients with matching controls were enrolled. Clinico-demographic profile, factors for initiating alcohol use, psychiatric and sexual co-morbidity and want for treatment and being abstinent was studied applying relevant scales. All subjects were males with a mean age of 37.5 years, 80% were married, majority were Hindu (88%) and from nuclear families (56%). Fifty two percent had an education level of Graduation or more and 68% of patients reported peer pressure to be the initiating factor for alcohol use. Seventy six percent had psychiatric co-morbidity including personality Problems and other Psychiatric disorders 19(38%), delirium tremens 14 (28.00%) and Mood disorders 12(24%).Depression being most common mood disorder (14%). Nicotine was the most common other substance of use 32 (64%). Sixty eight percent of the patient reported one or another sexual dysfunction. 68% of ADS inpatients acknowledged of having problems related to their drinking, expressed desire for change and were eager to avail treatment and to remain abstinent. ADS patients commonly suffer from psychiatric co-morbidity and sexual dysfunctions. They also wish to have effective treatment and to quit alcohol.

  8. Changes of marital behavior and family patterns in post-socialist countries: Delayed, incomplete or specific second demographic transition?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Mina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper starts by questioning the theory of second demographic transition (SDT and its universal relevance in the field of marriage behavior and family organization in low fertility context, arguing for more differentiated approaches. With an aim to illustrate the contextual specifics of post-socialist countries in general and of Serbia in particular, the author claims that analyzed changes have not just been delayed or incomplete in comparison to more developed European countries, but shaped by specific modernization processes, which led to rationally developed strategies in overcoming structural risks, although, without ideational changes typical to the theory of SDT. Slow changes in marital behavior and family organization in Serbia are illustrated in recent sociological (empirical research findings. The perceived changes are linked to specific structural risks (war, slow transformation and enduring economic hardships, weak state and low trust in institutions, etc and value characteristics (persistence of materialism and traditionalism, but with increasing ambivalence. The connection between structural and ideational changes is considered through social stratification variable by relying on Coale's model on necessary preconditions for behavioral changes as well as on social deprivation concept. Having in mind upper social strata (more educated and better off, the value changes precede the behavioral that are adapted to economic uncertainty, which still force more traditional marital and family patterns. Therefore, there is a rank of different options, from extended family (for a short period at the beginning of marriage or after divorce to separated leaving (of married partners in parental households (due to refusing the extended family option thus creating quite specific "living apart together" form, combined with dominant strategy of prolonging the marriage. Hence, for upper social strata, marriage is still a universal but negotiable

  9. Rapid response to changing environments during biological invasions: DNA methylation perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xuena; Li, Shiguo; Ni, Ping; Gao, Yangchun; Jiang, Bei; Zhou, Zunchun; Zhan, Aibin

    2017-12-01

    Dissecting complex interactions between species and their environments has long been a research hot spot in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology. The well-recognized Darwinian evolution has well-explained long-term adaptation scenarios; however, "rapid" processes of biological responses to environmental changes remain largely unexplored, particularly molecular mechanisms such as DNA methylation that have recently been proposed to play crucial roles in rapid environmental adaptation. Invasive species, which have capacities to successfully survive rapidly changing environments during biological invasions, provide great opportunities to study molecular mechanisms of rapid environmental adaptation. Here, we used the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique in an invasive model ascidian, Ciona savignyi, to investigate how species interact with rapidly changing environments at the whole-genome level. We detected quite rapid DNA methylation response: significant changes of DNA methylation frequency and epigenetic differentiation between treatment and control groups occurred only after 1 hr of high-temperature exposure or after 3 hr of low-salinity challenge. In addition, we detected time-dependent hemimethylation changes and increased intragroup epigenetic divergence induced by environmental stresses. Interestingly, we found evidence of DNA methylation resilience, as most stress-induced DNA methylation variation maintained shortly (~48 hr) and quickly returned back to the control levels. Our findings clearly showed that invasive species could rapidly respond to acute environmental changes through DNA methylation modifications, and rapid environmental changes left significant epigenetic signatures at the whole-genome level. All these results provide fundamental background to deeply investigate the contribution of DNA methylation mechanisms to rapid contemporary environmental adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Linking temporal changes in the demographic structure and individual growth to the decline in the population of a tropical fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirot, Charlotte; Darnaude, Audrey M.; Guilhaumon, François; Ramos-Miranda, Julia; Flores-Hernandez, Domingo; Panfili, Jacques

    2015-11-01

    The exceptional biodiversity and productivity of tropical coastal lagoons can only be preserved by identifying the causes for the decline in the populations living in these vulnerable ecosystems. The Terminos lagoon in Mexico provided an opportunity for studying this issue as some of its fish populations, in particular the Silver Perch (Bairdiella chrysoura), have declined significantly since the 1980s. Fish sampling campaigns carried out over the whole lagoon area in 1979-81 and again in 2006-2011 revealed the mechanisms which may have been responsible for this decline. Based on biometrical data for 295 juveniles and adults from the two periods and on somatic growth derived from 173 otoliths, a study of the temporal changes in the demographic structure and life history traits (individual growth and body condition) made it possible to distinguish the causes of the decline in the B. chrysoura population. Growth models for the lagoon in 1980-1981 and 2006-2011 showed no significant change in the growth parameters of the population over the last 30 years with a logistic model giving an accurate estimate (R2 = 0.66) of the size-at-age for both periods. The decline in the B. chrysoura population could not be explained by an overall decrease in individual size and condition in the lagoon, the average standard length (SL) and Fulton index (FI) having increased slightly since 1980-1981 (4.6 mm and 0.02 for juveniles and 5.42 mm and 0.07 for adults). However, the size structure of the population in the lagoon has changed, with a significant shift in the size distribution of juveniles with a marked reduction in the proportion of juveniles ≤ 60 mm in the captures (90.9% fewer than in 1980-1981). As the otolith growth rate of fish during the first 4 months also decreased significantly between the two sampling periods (-15%), it is suggested that the main reason for the decline in the abundance and biomass of B. chrysoura within this system may be that its habitats are less

  11. Socio-Demographic and Lifestyle Factors Predict 5-Year Changes in Adiposity among a Group of Black South African Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelie Nienaber-Rousseau

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The rising prevalence of obesity and excessive adiposity are global public health concerns. Understanding determinants of changes in adiposity over time is critical for informing effective evidence-based prevention or treatment. However, limited information is available to achieve this objective. Cultural, demographic, environmental, and behavioral factors including socio-economic status (SES likely account for obesity development. To this end, we related these variables to anthropometric measures in 1058 black adult Tswana-speaking South Africans who were HIV negative in a prospective study over five years. Body mass index (BMI and waist circumference increased in both sexes, whereas triceps skinfold thickness remained the same. Over the five years, women moved to higher BMI categories and more were diagnosed with central obesity. Age correlated negatively, whereas SES, physical activity, energy, and fat intake correlated positively with adiposity markers in women. In men, SES, marital status, physical activity, and being urban predicted increases in adiposity. For women, SES and urbanicity increased, whereas menopause and smoking decreased adiposity. Among men, smokers had less change in BMI than those that never smoked over five years. Our findings suggest that interventions, focusing on the urban living, the married and those with the highest SES—the high-risk groups identified herein—are of primary importance to contain morbidity and premature mortality due to obesity in black South Africans.

  12. Mortality decline and reproductive change during the Dutch demographic transition: Revisiting a traditional debate with new data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans Van Poppel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND According to classic demographic transition theory, mortality change is the key factor that triggers a decline in fertility. Research on this topic has mostly relied on aggregate or time series data. Since fertility is based on the joint decisions of couples when confronted with specific fertility-childhood mortality outcomes, a focus on the experiences of individual couples is needed. Recently, Reher and Sanz-Gimeno used this approach to analyze individual longitudinal data for the Spanish town of Aranjuez. OBJECTIVE We investigate whether, in a country and in populations characterized by varying cultural and socioeconomic circumstances, family organization, and demographic regimes, the same mechanisms influenced the process of fertility decline as in Spain. METHODS The study uses micro longitudinal data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands for a period stretching from the last quarter of the 19th century to the middle of the 20th century, and demographic measures identical to those used in the Spanish study to test whether the decline in fertility was triggered by the decline in mortality at the level of the family. As religious groups and social classes differed in their ability to correctly assess the implications of mortality levels, and in their willingness, readiness, and ability to react to these changes by adapting their reproductive behavior, we also compared the effect of mortality decline by the religion and the social class of the couples. RESULTS We observed that childhood survival had clear effects on reproduction, the chances of having another child, and the length of the intervals between births, which indicates that this variable was crucial for fertility decisions. This pattern was especially strong after 1900. There were rather consistent and expected differences in the reactions to the survival of children by social class and religious group. Whereas skilled workers were rather sensitive to the number of

  13. Changes in growth of pristine boreal North American forests from 1950 to 2005 driven by landscape demographics and species traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardin, M. P.; Guo, X. J.; Bernier, P. Y.; Raulier, F.; Gauthier, S.

    2012-07-01

    In spite of the many factors that are occurring and known for positively affecting the growth of forests, some boreal forests across North America have recently felt the adverse impacts of environmental changes. Knowledge of causes for productivity declines in North American boreal forests remains limited, and this is owed to the large spatial and temporal scales involved, and the many plant processes affected. Here, the response of pristine eastern boreal North American (PEBNA) forests to ongoing climatic changes is examined using in situ data, community ecology statistics, and species-specific model simulations of carbon exchanges forced by contemporary climatic data. To examine trends in forest growth, we used a recently acquired collection of tree-ring width data from 252 sample plots distributed in PEBNA forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). Results of linear trend analysis on the tree growth data highlight a dominating forest growth decline in overmature forests (age > 120 years) from 1950 to 2005. In contrast, improving growth conditions are seen in jack pine and mature (70-120 years) black spruce stands. Multivariate analysis of climate and growth relationships suggests that responses of PEBNA forests to climate are dependent on demographic and species traits via their mediation of temperature and water stress constraints. In support of this hypothesis, the simulation experiment suggests that in old-growth black spruce stands the benefit to growth brought on by a longer growing season may have been low in comparison with the increasing moisture stress and respiration losses caused by warmer summer temperatures. Predicted increases in wildfire frequency in PEBNA forests will likely enhance the positive response of landscape-level forest growth to climate change by shifting the forest distribution to younger age classes while also enhancing the jack pine component.

  14. Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collinson, Mark A; Tollman, Stephen M; Kahn, Kathleen

    2007-08-01

    World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be "counter-urbanization" and a prevailing pattern of circular rural-urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health.

  15. Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

    2017-12-01

    Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

  16. Integrated Ocean Management as a Strategy to Meet Rapid Climate Change: The Norwegian Case

    OpenAIRE

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-01-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addres...

  17. Classic And "Next Generation" Citizen Science: Expanding Data-gathering And Participant Demographics To Better Document Global Environmental Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines-Stiles, G.

    2015-12-01

    Long-standing citizen science projects such as Audubon's Christmas Bird Count have generated useful data about species range and population numbers for more than 100 years. Recent IPCC reports and the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) routinely include data about changing ecosystems and enviroments. Today new forms of citizen science are beginning to join such classic examples and broaden the demographics of participants and the kinds of information that can be captured, shared and analyzed. Surfers and scientists are hoping to record near-shore measurements of ocean acidification in Smartfin, through GPS, accelerometers and pH sensors on surfboards. Trout Unlimited is working on "Angler Science", documenting water temperature and stream quality in a changing climate, and using DNA analysis to track invasive species. The West Oakland Environmental Indicators Project is adding community mobilization in the face of sea level rise to its decade-long work on air pollution, particulates and asthma. The National Phenology Network encourages year-long observations using the "-Nature's Notebook" app that extend beyond anything possible using government-funded research alone. Understanding oceans, protecting rivers and identifying long-term patterns can contribute useful data to future NCAs, helping meet the otherwise challenging goal of "continuous assessment." How can we manage what we can't measure, for reasons of limited staff or resources? This presentation will offer one answer: by enlisting more and more citizen scientists--sportsmen and women, hobbyists and outdoor enthusiasts who may not even self identify as "citizen scientists"--pursuing their passions while also contributing valuable GEC data. The presentation will also touch on what kinds of information infrastructure can help assure data quality when traditional citizen science is expanded in these ways.

  18. Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Frances C.

    1999-01-01

    The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

  19. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  20. The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behaviors: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haff, Nancy; Patel, Mitesh S; Lim, Raymond; Zhu, Jingsan; Troxel, Andrea B; Asch, David A; Volpp, Kevin G

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate the use of behavioral economics to design financial incentives to promote health behavior change and to explore associations with demographic characteristics. Studies performed by the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania published between January 2006 and March 2014. Randomized, controlled trials with available participant-level data. Studies that did not use financial incentives to promote health behavior change were excluded. Participant-level data from seven studies were pooled. Meta-analysis on the pooled sample using a random-effects model with interaction terms to examine treatment effects and whether they varied by incentive structure or demographic characteristics. The pooled study sample comprised 1403 participants, of whom 35% were female, 70% were white, 24% were black, and the mean age was 48 years (standard deviation 11.2 years). In the fully adjusted model, participants offered financial incentives had higher odds of behavior change (odds ratio [OR]: 3.96; p financial incentives and gender, age, race, income, or education. When further adjusting for incentive structure, blacks had higher odds than whites of achieving behavior change (OR: 1.67; p Financial incentives designed using concepts from behavioral economics were effective for promoting health behavior change. There were no large and consistent relationships between the effectiveness of financial incentives and observable demographic characteristics. Second-order examinations of incentive structure suggest potential relationships among the effectiveness of financial incentives, incentive structure, and the demographic characteristics of race and income.

  1. Changes in antimicrobial resistance and demographics of UTIs in pediatric patients in a single institution over a 6-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erol, B; Culpan, M; Caskurlu, H; Sari, U; Cag, Y; Vahaboglu, H; Özumut, S H; Karaman, M I; Caskurlu, T

    2018-01-09

    To determine changes in antimicrobial resistance and demographics of UTIs in pediatric patients in a single institution over a 6-year period. The current study examined outpatient urinary isolates from patients aged resistance patterns for the six most common uropathogens: Escherichia coli, Proteus, Klebsiella, Enterobacter, Pseudomonas and Enterococcus (Summary table). The antibiotic resistance pattern for UTI during 2009-2014 was also examined. A total of 6515 urinary cultures was examined. The majority of these isolates were from female patients (66.8%). E. coli was the most common uropathogen overall, but the prevalence of E. coli was higher among females (79.5%) than males (54.9%). The biggest percentage of isolates in males was from children aged 6 years (46.8%). Results of antimicrobial resistance for E. coli were the highest for ampicillin (70%) and lowest for meropenem (0.19%). Comparing the hospital network data from 2009 to 2014, E. coli resistance increased for ampicillin (from 47.1% to 89%), trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) (from 44.8% to 56%) and nitrofurantoin (from 5.3% to 15.1%). In contrast, cephalosporins have maintained low antibiotic resistance. UTI in females was nearly twice as common than in males. E. coli remained the most common pediatric uropathogen. Although widely used in other tract infections, ampicillin was a poor empiric choice for pediatric UTIs. Cephalosporins were appropriate alternatives given their low resistance rates. A successful empirical treatment protocol should be based on local epidemiology and susceptibility rates. Copyright © 2018 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Rapid changes in the geomagnetic field: from global to regional scales

    OpenAIRE

    Mandea, M.; Olsen, N; Monika Korte; Verbanac, G.; Y. Yahiat

    2008-01-01

    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core. Its temporal change, called secular variation, is characterized by occasional rapid changes known as geomagnetic jerks, sudden change in the second time derivative of the magnetic field. For a while, detailed studies of these phenomena suffered from the sparse distribution of geomagnetic observatories over many parts of the Earth. Recent studies on magnetic data provided by magnetic satellites, w...

  3. Dynamic diagnostic relationism: a new diagnostic paradigm for complex rapidly changing clinical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Lawrence A

    2014-01-01

    Decades of large, apparently well-designed clinical trials have failed to generate reproducible results in the investigation of many complex rapidly evolving and changing conditions such as sepsis. One possibility for the failure is that 20th century threshold science may be too simplistic to apply to complex rapidly changing conditions, especially those with unknown times of onset. There is an acute need to reconsider the fundamental validity of the application of simple threshold science in the study of complex rapidly evolving and changing conditions. In this letter, four potential axioms are presented which define a new science which assesses the probability of disease as a function of motion images of all the available clinical data.

  4. Strategic Enrollment Management in the Age of Austerity and Changing Demographics: Managing Recruitment, Leveraging, Revenue, and Access in Challenging Economic Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langston, Randall; Scheid, Jamie

    2014-01-01

    Ever since the beginning of the Great Recession, higher education has braced for the impending age of austerity and changing demographics. Now a reality, these conditions threaten the ability of institutions of higher education to remain competitive in an ever growing global marketplace. This article presents several core SEM strategies that can…

  5. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  6. The business of demographics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, C

    1984-06-01

    The emergence of "demographics" in the past 15 years is a vital tool for American business research and planning. Tracing demographic trends became important for businesses when traditional consumer markets splintered with the enormous changes since the 1960s in US population growth, age structure, geographic distribution, income, education, living arrangements, and life-styles. The mass of reliable, small-area demographic data needed for market estimates and projections became available with the electronic census--public release of Census Bureau census and survey data on computer tape, beginning with the 1970 census. Census Bureau tapes as well as printed reports and microfiche are now widely accessible at low cost through summary tape processing centers designated by the bureau and its 12 regional offices and State Data Center Program. Data accessibility, plummeting computer costs, and businessess' unfamiliarity with demographics spawned the private data industry. By 1984, 70 private companies were offering demographic services to business clients--customized information repackaged from public data or drawn from proprietary data bases created from such data. Critics protest the for-profit use of public data by companies able to afford expensive mainframe computer technology. Business people defend their rights to public data as taxpaying ceitzens, but they must ensure that the data are indeed used for the public good. They must also question the quality of demographic data generated by private companies. Business' demographic expertise will improve when business schools offer training in demography, as few now do, though 40 of 88 graduate-level demographic programs now include business-oriented courses. Lower cost, easier access to business demographics is growing as more census data become available on microcomputer diskettes and through on-line linkages with large data bases--from private data companies and the Census Bureau itself. A directory of private and

  7. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  8. Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashist, B. (Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center, New York); Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.

    1982-03-01

    Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected.

  9. Rapidly changing mortality profiles in South Africa in its nine provinces

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    number from HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis combined by 2012.[1]. Cardiovascular ... diabetes and renal disease have increased.[1,7] Furthermore ... Creative Commons licence CC-BY-NC 4.0. Rapidly changing mortality profiles in South Africa in its nine provinces. Non-communicable disease. HIV/AIDS and TB. Other type 1.

  10. Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch

    2010-01-01

    Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

  11. A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

    2014-01-01

    We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

  12. Monitoring of rapid land cover changes in eastern Japan using Terra/MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, I.; Hara, K.; Park, J.; Asanuma, I.; Tomita, M.; Hasegawa, D.; Short, K.; Fujihara, M.,

    2015-04-01

    Vegetation and land cover in Japan are rapidly changing. Abandoned farmland in 2010, for example, was 396,000 ha, or triple that of 1985. Efficient monitoring of changes in land cover is vital to both conservation of biodiversity and sustainable regional development. The Ministry of Environment is currently producing 1/25,000 scale vegetation maps for all of Japan, but the work is not yet completed. Traditional research is time consuming, and has difficulty coping with the rapid nature of change in the modern world. In this situation, classification of various scale remotely sensed data can be of premier use for efficient and timely monitoring of changes in vegetation.. In this research Terra/MODIS data is utilized to classify land cover in all of eastern Japan. Emphasis is placed on the Tohoku area, where large scale and rapid changes in vegetation have occurred in the aftermath of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011. Large sections of coastal forest and agricultural lands, for example, were directly damaged by the earthquake or inundated by subsequent tsunami. Agricultural land was also abandoned due to radioactive contamination from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The classification results are interpreted within the framework of a Landscape Transformation Sere model developed by Hara et al (2010), which presents a multi-staged pattern for tracking vegetation changes under successively heavy levels of human interference. The results of the research will be useful for balancing conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems with the needs for regional redevelopment.

  13. Reasons for and challenges of recent increases in teen birth rates: a study of family planning service policies and demographic changes at the state level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhou; Gaydos, Laura M

    2010-06-01

    After declining for over a decade, the birth rate in the United States for adolescents aged 15-19 years increased by 3% in 2006 and 1% again in 2007. We examined demographic and policy reasons for this trend at state level. With data merged from multiple sources, descriptive analysis was used to detect state-level trends in birth rate and policy changes from 2000 to 2006, and variations in the distribution of teen birth rates, sex education, and family planning service policies, and demographic features across each state in 2006. Regression analysis was then conducted to estimate the effect of several reproductive health policies and demographic features on teen birth rates at the state level. Instrument variable was used to correct possible bias in the regression analysis. Medicaid family planning waivers were found to reduce teen birth rates across all ages and races. Abstinence-only education programs were found to cause an increase in teen birth rates among white and black teens. The increasing Hispanic population is another driving force for high teen birth rates. Both demographic factors and policy changes contributed to the increase in teen birth rates between 2000 and 2006. Future policy and behavioral interventions should focus on promoting and increasing access to contraceptive use. Family planning policies should be crafted to address the special needs of teens from different cultural backgrounds, especially Hispanics. Copyright 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malizia, Agustina; Easdale, Tomás A; Grau, H Ricardo

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1) y(-1)) and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2) ha(-1) y(-1)). Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis) into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species), rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively). However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

  15. Rapid structural and compositional change in an old-growth subtropical forest: using plant traits to identify probable drivers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustina Malizia

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown directional changes in old-growth tropical forests, but changes are complex and diverse, and their drivers unclear. Here, we report rapid net structural and compositional changes in an old-growth subtropical forest and we assess the functional nature of these changes to test hypothetical drivers including recovery from past disturbances, reduction in ungulate browsing, CO2 fertilization, and increases in rainfall and temperature. The study relies on 15 years of demographic monitoring within 8 ha of subtropical montane forest in Argentina. Between 1992 and 2007, stem density markedly increased by 50% (12 stems ha(-1 y(-1 and basal area by 6% (0.13 m(2 ha(-1 y(-1. Increased stem density resulted from enhanced recruitment of understory treelets (Piper tucumanum, Eugenia uniflora, Allophylus edulis into small size classes. Among 27 common tree species, net population growth was negatively correlated with maximum tree size and longevity, and positively correlated with leaf size and leaf nutrient content, especially so when initial population size was controlled for. Changes were inconsistent with predictions derived from past disturbances (no increase in shade-tolerant or long-lived late-succesional species, rainfall or temperature increase (no increase in evergreen or deciduous species, respectively. However, the increase in nutrient-rich soft-leaved species was consistent with exclusion of large herbivores two decades before monitoring started; and CO2 fertilization could help explain the disproportionate increase in small stems. Reductions in populations of large vertebrates have been observed in many otherwise undisturbed tropical forests, and our results suggest they can have important structural and functional repercussions in these forests.

  16. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  17. The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundred...

  18. Correlates of intimate partner violence against women during a time of rapid social transition in Rwanda: analysis of the 2005 and 2010 demographic and health surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Dana R; Bah, Assiatou B; Rubanzana, Wilson G; Mutesa, Leon

    2015-10-28

    In Rwanda, women who self-reported in household surveys ever experiencing intimate partner violence (IPV) increased from 34 % in 2005 to 56 % in 2010. This coincided with a new constitution and majority-female elected parliament in 2003, and 2008 legislation protecting against gender-based violence. The increase in self-reported IPV may reflect improved social power for women, and/or disruptions to traditional gender roles that increased actual IPV. This is a cross-sectional study of IPV in 4338 couples interviewed in the 2005 and 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (RDHSs). Factors associated with physical or sexual IPV in the last 12 months were modeled using manual backward stepwise logistic regression. Analyses were conducted in Stata v13 adjusting for complex survey design. Risk factors for IPV in 2005 (p violence victims, is currently scaling to all 44 district hospitals, and police station gender desks reduce barriers to legal reporting of IPV. Additional support to Abunzi mediators to hear IPV cases in communities, and involvement of men in grassroots efforts to redefine masculinity in Rwanda are suggested. Additional research is needed to understand why self-reported IPV has increased in Rwanda, and to evaluate effectiveness of IPV interventions.

  19. Frightening music triggers rapid changes in brain monoamine receptors: a pilot PET study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Chen, Qiaozhen; Du, Fenglei; Hu, Yanni; Chao, Fangfang; Tian, Mei; Zhang, Hong

    2012-10-01

    Frightening music can rapidly arouse emotions in listeners that mimic those from actual life-threatening experiences. However, studies of the underlying mechanism for perceiving danger created by music are limited. We investigated monoamine receptor changes induced by frightening music using (11)C-N-methyl-spiperone ((11)C-NMSP) PET. Ten healthy male volunteers were included, and their psychophysiologic changes were evaluated. Compared with the baseline condition, listening to frightening music caused a significant decrease in (11)C-NMSP in the right and left caudate nuclei, right limbic region, and right paralimbic region; a particularly significant decrease in the right anterior cingulate cortex; but an increase in the right frontal occipital and left temporal lobes of the cerebral cortex. Transient fright triggers rapid changes in monoamine receptors, which decrease in the limbic and paralimbic regions but increase in the cerebral cortex.

  20. Rapidly assessing changes in bone mineral balance using natural stable calcium isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Jennifer L. L.; Skulan, Joseph L.; Gordon, Gwyneth W.; Romaniello, Stephen J.; Smith, Scott M.; Anbar, Ariel D.

    2012-06-01

    The ability to rapidly detect changes in bone mineral balance (BMB) would be of great value in the early diagnosis and evaluation of therapies for metabolic bone diseases such as osteoporosis and some cancers. However, measurements of BMB are hampered by difficulties with using biochemical markers to quantify the relative rates of bone resorption and formation and the need to wait months to years for altered BMB to produce changes in bone mineral density large enough to resolve by X-ray densitometry. We show here that, in humans, the natural abundances of Ca isotopes in urine change rapidly in response to changes in BMB. In a bed rest experiment, use of high-precision isotope ratio MS allowed the onset of bone loss to be detected in Ca isotope data after about 1 wk, long before bone mineral density has changed enough to be detectable with densitometry. The physiological basis of the relationship between Ca isotopes and BMB is sufficiently understood to allow quantitative translation of changes in Ca isotope abundances to changes in bone mineral density using a simple model. The rate of change of bone mineral density inferred from Ca isotopes is consistent with the rate observed by densitometry in long-term bed rest studies. Ca isotopic analysis provides a powerful way to monitor bone loss, potentially making it possible to diagnose metabolic bone disease and track the impact of treatments more effectively than is currently possible.

  1. Genetic Signatures of Demographic Changes in an Avian Top Predator during the Last Century: Bottlenecks and Expansions of the Eurasian Eagle Owl in the Iberian Peninsula.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Graciá

    on the species genetic makeup or that such signals have been eroded by the rapid demographic recovery experienced by the species in recent years.

  2. Genetic Signatures of Demographic Changes in an Avian Top Predator during the Last Century: Bottlenecks and Expansions of the Eurasian Eagle Owl in the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graciá, Eva; Ortego, Joaquín; Godoy, José Antonio; Pérez-García, Juan Manuel; Blanco, Guillermo; del Mar Delgado, María; Penteriani, Vincenzo; Almodóvar, Irene; Botella, Francisco; Sánchez-Zapata, José Antonio

    2015-01-01

    species genetic makeup or that such signals have been eroded by the rapid demographic recovery experienced by the species in recent years. PMID:26230922

  3. Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuhiro Homma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

  4. Did Late Pleistocene climate change result in parallel genetic structure and demographic bottlenecks in sympatric Central African crocodiles, Mecistops and Osteolaemus?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Matthew H; Austin, James D

    2017-11-01

    The mid-Holocene has had profound demographic impacts on wildlife on the African continent, although there is little known about the impacts on species from Central Africa. Understanding the impacts of climate change on codistributed species can enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and for formulating restoration objectives. We took a multigenome comparative approach to examine the phylogeographic structure of two poorly known Central African crocodile species-Mecistops sp. aff. cataphractus and Osteolaemus tetraspis. In addition, we conducted coalescent-based demographic reconstructions to test the hypothesis that population decline was driven by climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum, vs. more recent anthropogenic pressures. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct demographic history, we show that both species had dramatic declines (>97%) in effective population size in the 'period following the Last Glacial Maximum 1,500-18,000 YBP. Identification of genetic structuring showed both species have similar regional structure corresponding to major geological features (i.e., hydrologic basin) and that small observed differences between them are best explained by the differences in their ecology and the likely impact that climate change had on their habitat needs. Our results support our hypothesis that climatic effects, presumably on forest and wetland habitat, had a congruent negative impact on both species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Hugo, Martin; Doney, Scott C; Ducklow, Hugh W; Fraser, William; Martinson, Douglas; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Schofield, Oscar

    2009-03-13

    The climate of the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing a transition from a cold-dry polar-type climate to a warm-humid sub-Antarctic-type climate. Using three decades of satellite and field data, we document that ocean biological productivity, inferred from chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), has significantly changed along the WAP shelf. Summertime surface Chl a (summer integrated Chl a approximately 63% of annually integrated Chl a) declined by 12% along the WAP over the past 30 years, with the largest decreases equatorward of 63 degrees S and with substantial increases in Chl a occurring farther south. The latitudinal variation in Chl a trends reflects shifting patterns of ice cover, cloud formation, and windiness affecting water-column mixing. Regional changes in phytoplankton coincide with observed changes in krill (Euphausia superba) and penguin populations.

  6. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-06-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  7. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Rapid assessment of large scale vegetation change based on multi-temporal phenological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Danlu; Guan, Yanning; Guo, Shan; Yan, Baoping; Xing, Zhi; Zhang, Chunyan; Piao, Yingchao; An, Xudong; Kang, Lihua

    2011-11-01

    Detecting vegetation change is critical for earth system and sustainability science. The existing methods, however, show several limitations, including inevitable selection of imagery acquisition dates, affection from vegetation related noise on temporal trajectory analysis, and assumptions due to vegetation classification model. This paper presents a multitemporal phenological frequency analysis over a relatively short period (MTPFA-SP) methodology to detect vegetation changes. This MTPFA-SP methodology bases on the amplitude components of fast Fourier transforming (FFT) and is implemented with two steps. First, NDVI time series over two periods are transformed with FFT into frequency domain, separately. Second, amplitude components with phenological information from Step 1 are selected for further change comparison. In this methodology, component selection shows physical meanings of natural vegetation process in frequency domain. Comparisons among those selected components help enhance the ability to rapidly detect vegetation changes. To validate this MTPFA-SP methodology, we detect changes between two periods (2001-2005 and 2006-2010) in the eastern Tibet Plateau area and make two kinds of assessments. The first is for a larger scale, including statistic analysis of altitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality. The second assessment is for rapid detection of vegetation change location. Landsat TM image were employed to validate the result.

  9. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Trumbore, Susan

    1996-03-01

    THE climate system is capable of changing abruptly from one stable mode to another1-3. Rapid climate oscillations-in particular the Younger Dryas cold period during the last deglaciation-have long been recognized from records throughout the North Atlantic region4-14, and the distribution of these records at mostly high latitudes suggests that the changes were caused by rapid reorganizations of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation6,8,10,15. But events far from the North Atlantic region that are synchronous with the Younger Dryas16-19 raise the possibility that a more global forcing mechanism was responsible20. Here we present high-resolution records of laminated sediments of the last deglaciation from the Cariaco basin (tropical Atlantic Ocean) which show many abrupt sub-decade to century-scale oscillations in surface-ocean biological productivity that are synchronous with climate changes at high latitudes. We attribute these productivity variations to changes in or duration of up-welling rate (and hence nutrient supply) caused by changes in trade-wind strength, which is in turn influenced by the thermo-haline circulation through its effect on sea surface temperature6,21. Abrupt climate changes in the tropical Atlantic during the last deglaciation are thus consistent with a North Atlantic circulation forcing mechanism.

  10. Changes in nasal air flow and school grades after rapid maxillary expansion in oral breathing children

    OpenAIRE

    Torre, Hilda; Alarcón, Jose Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the changes in nasal air flow and school grades after rapid maxillary expansion (RME) in oral breathing children with maxillary constriction. Material and Methods: Forty-four oral breathing children (mean age 10.57 y) underwent orthodontic RME with a Hyrax screw. Forty-four age-matched children (mean age 10.64 y) with nasal physiological breathing and adequate transverse maxillary dimensions served as the control group. The maxillary widths, nasal air flow assessed via p...

  11. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

    2012-07-01

    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  12. Holocene fluvial geochronologies, global databases and hydrological proxies: rethinking people-river interactions and rapid climate change impacts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macklin, M. G.

    2009-12-01

    The assumption of the constancy of climate over time periods of around a century, which was the basis of much engineering and hydrological forward planning until recently, is now widely felt to be unsatisfactory. This re-evaluation has been prompted by a number of important empirical, interdisciplinary and technological advances in fluvial science research over the last decade that is increasingly being carried out in a global framework. Some of the more important developments have included: 1. wider application of high precision sediment-based dating techniques (e.g. OSL) to a greater range of fluvial environments; 2. worldwide database compilation and statistical analysis of 14C dated Holocene fluvial units, enabling the identification of climatic and anthropogenic environmental signals in fluvial sedimentary sequences; and 3. new earth surface observation (e.g. LIDAR) and sediment core analysis (e.g. ITRAX core scanner) techniques that are providing event-scale reconstructions of fluvial environments. Drawing on recent geoarchaeological research in the lower Nile valley, 14C database analysis and comparison of Holocene fluvial records in Europe and New Zealand, and a new 3700-year continuous flood record from the UK reconstructed from fine-grained floodplain sediments, the impact of rapid climate change on riverine societies resulting from monsoon, thermohaline circulation, ENSO and NAO variability is critically reviewed. These studies show that establishing causal relationships between river dynamics and cultural/demographic change is not a straightforward task and identifying possible natural environmental triggers of societal change is especially problematic. A solution may be to stress the inseparable nature of environmental and cultural influences, and view the physical environment as a delimiter of possible action rather than as a prescriptive agency.

  13. Evaluation of rapid volume changes of substrate-adherent cells by conventional microscopy 3D imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudreault, F; Grygorczyk, R

    2004-09-01

    Precise measurement of rapid volume changes of substrate-adherent cells is essential to understand many aspects of cell physiology, yet techniques to evaluate volume changes with sufficient precision and high temporal resolution are limited. Here, we describe a novel imaging method that surveys the rapid morphology modifications of living, substrate-adherent cells based on phase-contrast, digital video microscopy. Cells grown on a glass substrate are mounted in a custom-designed, side-viewing chamber and subjected to hypotonic swelling. Side-view images of the rapidly swelling cell, and at the end of the assay, an image of the same cell viewed from a perpendicular direction through the substrate, are acquired. Based on these images, off-line reconstruction of 3D cell morphology is performed, which precisely measures cell volume, height and surface at different points during cell volume changes. Volume evaluations are comparable to those obtained by confocal laser scanning microscopy (DeltaVolume microscopy without the need for cell staining or intense illumination to monitor cell volume make this system a promising new tool to investigate the fundamentals of cell volume physiology.

  14. Demographic expansion of two Tamarix species along the Yellow River caused by geological events and climate change in the Pleistocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hong-Yan; Feng, Zhi-Pei; Pei, Bing; Li, Yong; Yang, Xi-Tian

    2018-01-08

    The geological events and climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene played important roles in shaping patterns of species distribution. However, few studies have evaluated the patterns of species distribution that were influenced by the Yellow River. The present work analyzed the demography of two endemic tree species that are widely distributed along the Yellow River, Tamarix austromongolica and Tamarix chinensis, to understand the role of the Yellow River and Pleistocene climate in shaping their distribution patterns. The most common chlorotype, chlorotype 1, was found in all populations, and its divergence time could be dated back to 0.19 million years ago (Ma). This dating coincides well with the formation of the modern Yellow River and the timing of Marine Isotope Stages 5e-6 (MIS 5e-6). Bayesian reconstructions along with models of paleodistribution revealed that these two species experienced a demographic expansion in population size during the Quaternary period. Approximate Bayesian computation analyses supported a scenario of expansion approximately from the upper to lower reaches of the Yellow River. Our results provide support for the roles of the Yellow River and the Pleistocene climate in driving demographic expansion of the populations of T. austromongolica and T. chinensis. These findings are useful for understanding the effects of geological events and past climatic fluctuations on species distribution patterns.

  15. Rapid and specific gray matter changes in M1 induced by balance training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taubert, Marco; Mehnert, Jan; Pleger, Burkhard; Villringer, Arno

    2016-06-01

    Training-induced changes in cortical structure can be observed non-invasively with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). While macroscopic changes were found mainly after weeks to several months of training in humans, imaging of motor cortical networks in animals revealed rapid microstructural alterations after a few hours of training. We used MRI to test the hypothesis of immediate and specific training-induced alterations in motor cortical gray matter in humans. We found localized increases in motor cortical thickness after 1h of practice in a complex balancing task. These changes were specific to motor cortical effector representations primarily responsible for balance control in our task (lower limb and trunk) and these effects could be confirmed in a replication study. Cortical thickness changes (i) linearly increased across the training session, (ii) occurred independent of alterations in resting cerebral blood flow and (iii) were not triggered by repetitive use of the lower limbs. Our findings show that motor learning triggers rapid and specific gray matter changes in M1. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Rapid changes in brain structure predict improvements induced by perceptual learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditye, Thomas; Kanai, Ryota; Bahrami, Bahador; Muggleton, Neil G; Rees, Geraint; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-11-01

    Practice-dependent changes in brain structure can occur in task relevant brain regions as a result of extensive training in complex motor tasks and long-term cognitive training but little is known about the impact of visual perceptual learning on brain structure. Here we studied the effect of five days of visual perceptual learning in a motion-color conjunction search task using anatomical MRI. We found rapid changes in gray matter volume in the right posterior superior temporal sulcus, an area sensitive to coherently moving stimuli, that predicted the degree to which an individual's performance improved with training. Furthermore, behavioral improvements were also predicted by volumetric changes in an extended white matter region underlying the visual cortex. These findings point towards quick and efficient plastic neural mechanisms that enable the visual brain to deal effectively with changing environmental demands. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Suhrcke, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and have reached world record levels in some of them. Capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable data in low and middle income countries. We seek to begin to fill this gap by testing several hypotheses on the determinants/correlates of overweight among women, related to the influence of economic and technological development. We undertake econometric analysis of nationally representative data on about 878,000 women aged 15–49 from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991–2009. Our findings support most previously expressed hypotheses of what might explain obesity patterns in developing countries, but they also reject some prior notions and add considerable nuance to the emerging pattern. PMID:24457038

  18. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dybala, Kristen E.; Eadie, John M.; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

  19. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dybala, Kristen E; Eadie, John M; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Herzog, Mark P

    2013-09-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2017-03-01

    Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a `business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

  1. Rapid Detection of Land Cover Changes Using Crowdsourced Geographic Information: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Meng

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Land cover change (LCC detection is a significant component of sustainability research including ecological economics and climate change. Due to the rapid variability of natural environment, effective LCC detection is required to capture sufficient change-related information. Although such information has been available through remotely sensed images, the complicated image processing and classification make it time consuming and labour intensive. In contrast, the freely available crowdsourced geographic information (CGI contains easily interpreted textual information, and thus has the potential to be applied for capturing effective change-related information. Therefore, this paper presents and evaluates a method using CGI for rapid LCC detection. As a case study, Beijing is chosen as the study area, and CGI is applied to monitor LCC information. As one kind of CGI which is generated from commercial Internet maps, points of interest (POIs with detailed textual information are utilised to detect land cover in 2016. Those POIs are first classified into land cover nomenclature based on their textual information. Then, a kernel density approach is proposed to effectively generate land cover regions in 2016. Finally, with GlobeLand30 in 2010 as baseline map, LCC is detected using the post-classification method in the period of 2010–2016 in Beijing. The result shows that an accuracy of 89.20% is achieved with land cover regions generated by POIs, indicating that POIs are reliable for rapid LCC detection. Additionally, an LCC detection comparison is proposed between remotely sensed images and CGI, revealing the advantages of POIs in terms of LCC efficiency. However, due to the uneven distribution, remotely sensed images are still required in areas with few POIs.

  2. Demographic dynamics and environmental change in Brazil Dinâmicas demográficas e mudança ambiental no Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Joseph Hogan

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available In its first part, the text examines the evolution of research on demographic dynamics and environmental change in Brazil. While concern for the deforestation of the Amazon region was an important starting point for the concerns of demographers, the first systematic studies dealt with the "brown agenda." It was a question of urban environmental quality which motivated specialists to enter this field. In the second part, the text presents a preliminary analysis of demographic dynamics in the principal ecological formations of Brazil, with considerations on the relationships between processes of population distribution and environmental sustainability.O texto, na sua primeira parte, traça a história da evolução dos estudos sobre dinâmica demográfica e a questão ambiental no Brasil. Embora a questão amazônica e o desmatamento fossem importantes fontes de preocupação, os primeiros estudos sistemáticos trataram da "agenda marrom." Foram as questões de qualidade ambiental urbana que motivaram os especialistas a entrar neste campo. Na segunda parte, faz-se uma análise preliminar da dinâmica ambiental nas principais formações ecológicas do Brasil, tecendo considerações sobre os processos de distribuição populacional e a sustentabilidade ambiental.

  3. Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Martin; Simon, Margit H; Hall, Ian R; Barker, Stephen; Stringer, Chris; Zahn, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

  4. Changing arctic ecosystems—What is causing the rapid increase of snow geese in northern Alaska?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hupp, Jerry W.; Ward, David H.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

    2015-09-10

    Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) informs key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is a key study area within the USGS CAE initiative. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past decades, leading to decreased sea ice, permafrost thaw, and an advancement of spring phenology. The number of birds on the ACP also is changing, marked by increased populations of the four species of geese that nest in the region. The Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens) is the most rapidly increasing of these species. USGS CAE research is quantifying these changes and their implications for management agencies.

  5. Prey change behaviour with predation threat, but demographic effects vary with prey density: experiments with grasshoppers and birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belovsky, Gary E; Laws, Angela Nardoni; Slade, Jennifer B

    2011-04-01

    Increasingly, ecologists emphasize that prey frequently change behaviour in the presence of predators and these behavioural changes can reduce prey survival and reproduction as much or more than predation itself. However, the effects of behavioural changes on survival and reproduction may vary with prey density due to intraspecific competition. In field experiments, we varied grasshopper density and threat of avian predation and measured grasshopper behaviour, survival and reproduction. Grasshopper behaviour changed with the threat of predation and these behavioural changes were invariant with grasshopper density. Behavioural changes with the threat of predation decreased per capita reproduction over all grasshopper densities; whereas the behavioural changes increased survival at low grasshopper densities and then decreased survival at high densities. At low grasshopper densities, the total reproductive output of the grasshopper population remained unchanged with predation threat, but declined at higher densities. The effects of behavioural changes with predation threat varied with grasshopper density because of a trade-off between survival and reproduction as intraspecific competition increased with density. Therefore, resource availability may need to be considered when assessing how prey behavioural changes with predation threat affect population and food web dynamics. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  6. The world-wide increase in tuberculosis: how demographic changes, HIV infection and increasing numbers in poverty are increasing tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Peter D O

    2003-01-01

    After more than a century of decline, in the mid 1980s tuberculosis began to increase in some developed countries. Health care workers were then forced to look to the developing world, where they found tuberculosis to be out of control, in many countries. It is now appreciated that tuberculosis is not only increasing globally but is likely to do so beyond the next decade for three principal reasons. First, demographically as the expected population increase will be greatest in areas of the world where tuberculosis is most prevalent, particularly middle Africa and South Asia. Secondly, the increase of HIV, which renders the host uniquely susceptible to tuberculosis, is occurring in the same areas of the world and is already causing an increase in tuberculosis case rates of up to tenfold. Thirdly, as more and more people are forced to live in poverty, where poor nutrition and crowded conditions lead to the spread of tuberculosis, the disease risk will be compounded. Sound medical management, particularly the use of the five components of directly observed therapy, will relieve the situation. But until world conditions of poverty and HIV spread are addressed, it is unlikely that tuberculosis can be controlled.

  7. Rapid Holocene coastal change revealed by high-resolution micropaleontological analysis, Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Pre C.; Culver, S.J.; Mallinson, D.J.; Farrell, K.M.; Corbett, D.R.; Horton, B.P.; Hillier, C.; Riggs, S.R.; Snyder, S.W.; Buzas, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Foraminiferal analyses of 404 contiguous samples, supported by diatom, lithologic, geochronologic and seismic data, reveal both rapid and gradual Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in an 8.21-m vibracore taken from southern Pamlico Sound, North Carolina. Data record initial flooding of a latest Pleistocene river drainage and the formation of an estuary 9000. yr ago. Estuarine conditions were punctuated by two intervals of marine influence from approximately 4100 to 3700 and 1150 to 500. cal. yr BP. Foraminiferal assemblages in the muddy sand facies that accumulated during these intervals contain many well-preserved benthic foraminiferal species, which occur today in open marine settings as deep as the mid shelf, and significant numbers of well-preserved planktonic foraminifera, some typical of Gulf Stream waters. We postulate that these marine-influenced units resulted from temporary destruction of the southern Outer Banks barrier islands by hurricanes. The second increase in marine influence is coeval with increased rate of sea-level rise and a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. This high-resolution analysis demonstrates the range of environmental variability and the rapidity of coastal change that can result from the interplay of changing climate, sea level and geomorphology in an estuarine setting. ?? 2011 University of Washington.

  8. Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benowitz, L I; Shashoua, V E; Yoon, M G

    1981-03-01

    Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with [3H]-, the other with [14C]proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain.

  9. Modulators of mercury risk to wildlife and humans in the context of rapid global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Basu, Niladri; Bustamante, Paco; Diaz-Barriga, Fernando; Hopkins, William A.; Kidd, Karen A.; Nyland, Jennifer F.

    2018-01-01

    Environmental mercury (Hg) contamination is an urgent global health threat. The complexity of Hg in the environment can hinder accurate determination of ecological and human health risks, particularly within the context of the rapid global changes that are altering many ecological processes, socioeconomic patterns, and other factors like infectious disease incidence, which can affect Hg exposures and health outcomes. However, the success of global Hg-reduction efforts depends on accurate assessments of their effectiveness in reducing health risks. In this paper, we examine the role that key extrinsic and intrinsic drivers play on several aspects of Hg risk to humans and organisms in the environment. We do so within three key domains of ecological and human health risk. First, we examine how extrinsic global change drivers influence pathways of Hg bioaccumulation and biomagnification through food webs. Next, we describe how extrinsic socioeconomic drivers at a global scale, and intrinsic individual-level drivers, influence human Hg exposure. Finally, we address how the adverse health effects of Hg in humans and wildlife are modulated by a range of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers within the context of rapid global change. Incorporating components of these three domains into research and monitoring will facilitate a more holistic understanding of how ecological and societal drivers interact to influence Hg health risks.

  10. Specific changes in rapidly transported proteins during regeneration of the goldfish optic nerve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benowitz, L.I.; Shashoua, V.E.; Yoon, M.G.

    1981-03-01

    Double labeling methods were used to identify changes in the complement of proteins synthesized in the retinal ganglion cells and transported down the optic nerve during the process of axonal regeneration. Eight to 62 days after goldfish underwent a unilateral optic nerve crush, one eye was labeled with (3H)-, the other with (14C)proline. Control and regenerating optic nerves were dissected out and homogenized together after 5 hr, a time which allowed us to examine selectively membrane-bound components which migrate in the rapid phase of axoplasmic transport. Proteins from the two sides were so-purified and separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Analysis of the 3H and 14C incorporation patterns along the gels revealed a radical shift away from the normal labeling spectrum during regeneration, with selective changes in labeling at particular molecular weights varying over a 3-fold range. Eight days after crushing the optic nerve, the greatest increases in labeling were seen for material with apparent molecular weights of 24,000 to 27,000, 44,000, and 210,000 daltons. These peaks declined thereafter, and on days 29 to 39, the most prominent increases were at 110,000 to 140,000 daltons. These studies indicate a continuously changing pattern in the synthesis and/or degradation of proteins that are rapidly transported down the optic nerve during regeneration and point to molecular species potential significance in the establishment of the visual map upon the brain.

  11. Rapid transgenerational acclimation of a tropical reef fish to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donelson, J. M.; Munday, P. L.; McCormick, M. I.; Pitcher, C. R.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of species to acclimate and adapt to expected temperature increases is critical for making predictions about the biological impacts of global warming, yet it is one of the least certain aspects of climate change science. Tropical species are considered to be especially sensitive to climate change because they live close to their thermal maximum and exhibit limited capacity for acclimation. Here, we demonstrate that a tropical reef fish is highly sensitive to small increases in water temperature, but can rapidly acclimate over multiple generations. Acute exposure to elevated temperatures (+1.5°C and +3.0°C) predicted to occur this century caused a 15% and 30% respective decrease in individual's maximum ability to perform aerobic activities such as swimming or foraging, known as aerobic scope. However, complete compensation in aerobic scope occurred when both parents and offspring were reared throughout their lives at elevated temperature. Such acclimation could reduce the impact of warming temperatures and allow populations to persist across their current range. This study reveals the importance of transgenerational acclimation as a mechanism for coping with rapid climate change and highlights that single generation studies risk underestimating the potential of species to cope.

  12. Comparing records to understand past rapid climate change: An INTIMATE database update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Rebecca; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Staff, Richard A.; Albert, Paul G.

    2017-04-01

    Integrating multi-proxy records from ice, terrestrial and marine records enhances the understanding of the temporal and spatial variation of past rapid climatic changes globally. By handling these records on their own individual timescales and linking them through known chronological relationships (e.g. tephra, 10Be and 14C), regional comparisons can be made for these past climatic events. Furthermore, the use of time-transfer functions enables the chronological uncertainties between different archives to be quantified. The chronological database devised by the working group 1 (WG1) of INTIMATE, exclusively uses this methodology to provide a means to visualise and compare palaeoclimate records. Development of this database is ongoing, with numerous additional records being added to the database with a particular focus on European archives spanning the Late Glacial period. Here we present a new phase of data collection. Through selected cases study sites across Europe, we aim to illustrate the database as a novel tool in understanding spatial and temporal variations in rapid climatic change. Preliminary results allow questions such as time transgression and regional expressions of rapid climate change to be investigated. The development of this database will continue through additional input of raw climate proxy data, linking to other relevant databases (e.g. Fossil Pollen Database) and providing output data that can be analysed in the statistical programming language of R. A major goal of this work to is not only provide a detailed database, but allow researchers to integrate their own climate proxy data with that on the database.

  13. Neurogenomics and the role of a large mutational target on rapid behavioral change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Craig E; Kulathinal, Rob J

    2016-11-08

    Behavior, while complex and dynamic, is among the most diverse, derived, and rapidly evolving traits in animals. The highly labile nature of heritable behavioral change is observed in such evolutionary phenomena as the emergence of converged behaviors in domesticated animals, the rapid evolution of preferences, and the routine development of ethological isolation between diverging populations and species. In fact, it is believed that nervous system development and its potential to evolve a seemingly infinite array of behavioral innovations played a major role in the successful diversification of metazoans, including our own human lineage. However, unlike other rapidly evolving functional systems such as sperm-egg interactions and immune defense, the genetic basis of rapid behavioral change remains elusive. Here we propose that the rapid divergence and widespread novelty of innate and adaptive behavior is primarily a function of its genomic architecture. Specifically, we hypothesize that the broad diversity of behavioral phenotypes present at micro- and macroevolutionary scales is promoted by a disproportionately large mutational target of neurogenic genes. We present evidence that these large neuro-behavioral targets are significant and ubiquitous in animal genomes and suggest that behavior's novelty and rapid emergence are driven by a number of factors including more selection on a larger pool of variants, a greater role of phenotypic plasticity, and/or unique molecular features present in large genes. We briefly discuss the origins of these large neurogenic genes, as they relate to the remarkable diversity of metazoan behaviors, and highlight key consequences on both behavioral traits and neurogenic disease across, respectively, evolutionary and ontogenetic time scales. Current approaches to studying the genetic mechanisms underlying rapid phenotypic change primarily focus on identifying signatures of Darwinian selection in protein-coding regions. In contrast

  14. Demographic and Subsistence Change in a Complex Fisher-Forager Village: Evidence from Housepit 54, Bridge River Site, British Columbia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prentiss, Anne Marie; Walsh, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Paper presented in the symposium “Understanding Change in Prehistoric Demography and Subsistence” at World Archaeological Congress 8, Kyoto, Japan.......Paper presented in the symposium “Understanding Change in Prehistoric Demography and Subsistence” at World Archaeological Congress 8, Kyoto, Japan....

  15. Wiki management a revolutionary new model for a rapidly changing and collaborative world

    CERN Document Server

    Collins, Rod

    2013-01-01

    We now live in a "wiki" world where mass collaboration is not only possible-it's often the best solution. Conventional management thought assumes that command-and-control is the most effective way to organize the efforts of large numbers of people, but rapid change and increasing complexity have rendered that model obsolete. As a result, most managers today lack the skills and knowledge needed to succeed in an age when networks are proving smarter and faster than hierarchies. Designing organizations for mass collaboration demands a new and very different model-wiki management.

  16. Experiences of Families Transmitting Values in a Rapidly Changing Society: Implications for Family Therapists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akyil, Yudum; Prouty, Anne; Blanchard, Amy; Lyness, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    Intergenerational value transmission affects parent-child relationships and necessitates constant negotiation in families. Families with adolescents from rapidly changing societies face unique challenges in balancing the traditional collectivistic family values that promote harmony with emerging values that promote autonomy. Using modern Turkey as an example of such a culture, the authors examine the transmission process in families that hold more traditional and collectivistic values than their adolescent children. Special consideration is given to generational and cultural differences in the autonomy and relatedness dimensions. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

  17. Changes in food habits after migration among South Asians settled in Oslo: the effect of demographic, socio-economic and integration factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandel, Margareta; Råberg, Marte; Kumar, Bernadette; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd

    2008-01-01

    The aim is to explore changes in food habits after migration, and the resultant present food consumption patterns, as well as the effect of demographic, socio-economic and integration factors on these changes. Analyses were based on data collected through the Oslo Immigrant Health study, from 629 persons 30-60 years of age, born in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and living in Oslo, Norway. A majority of the Sri Lankans reported increase in the consumption of meat, milk, butter, margarine and potatoes. Around half of those from Pakistan reported increased consumption of oil, meat, fish and potatoes. Both groups reported a decrease in bean and lentil consumption. Multivariate regression showed that age was negatively related to increases in butter and margarine consumption, and a good command of the Norwegian language reduced the likelihood of increased consumption of oil and butter. The likelihood of having present fat and sugar rich food patterns were reduced with age and years of education, whereas scoring high on an index of integration increased the likelihood of a fat rich food pattern. In conclusion, a number of demographic and socio-cultural factors may modify the changes in food habits after migration. Some of these may have substantial health implications.

  18. Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Su; Olafsrud, Solveig Mjelstad; Meza-Zepeda, Leonardo A; Saatcioglu, Fahri

    2013-01-01

    One of the most common integrative medicine (IM) modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P) compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

  19. Rapid gene expression changes in peripheral blood lymphocytes upon practice of a comprehensive yoga program.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Qu

    Full Text Available One of the most common integrative medicine (IM modalities is yoga and related practices. Previous work has shown that yoga may improve wellness in healthy people and have benefits for patients. However, the mechanisms of how yoga may positively affect the mind-body system are largely unknown. Here we have assessed possible rapid changes in global gene expression profiles in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs in healthy people that practiced either a comprehensive yoga program or a control regimen. The experimental sessions included gentle yoga postures, breathing exercises, and meditation (Sudarshan Kriya and Related Practices--SK&P compared with a control regimen of a nature walk and listening to relaxing music. We show that the SK&P program has a rapid and significantly greater effect on gene expression in PBMCs compared with the control regimen. These data suggest that yoga and related practices result in rapid gene expression alterations which may be the basis for their longer term cell biological and higher level health effects.

  20. Changes in head posture after rapid maxillary expansion in patients with nasopharyngeal obstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kjurchieva-Chuchkova G

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nasopharyngeal obstruction is an important etiologic factor in the development of an extreme vertical growth facial pattern, and insufficient transversal growth of the maxilla. The treatment outcomes associated with rapid maxillary expansion in the literature are mainly discussed in terms of changes in dentofacial morphology, without special reference to changes in the pharyngeal airway, the position of the mandible, hyoid bone and the tongue. Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of rapid maxillary expansion (RME, on changes in head posture and airway dimension. Materials and methods: The cephalometric evaluation was conducted on thirty lateral cephalograms of patients with nasopharyngeal obstruction (mean age 9.11 years; standard deviation (SD ± 2.0; range 8-14 years treated with appliance for rapid maxillary expansion. Patients were randomly divided into two groups: 1 study group comprised of 15 patients treated with RME immediately after the first visit; 2 a control group comprised of 15 subjects monitored for approximately 12 months prior to commencing therapy, who became untreated controls. Lateral cephalograms, taken in the natural head position, were obtained at the first visit and 6 months later for all subjects. Six angular measurements were measured to describe craniocervical angulation, and five linear measurements were measured to describe airway dimension. Results: The investigated group treated with RME shows a statistically significant decrease in craniocervical angulation, especially at the angle of interaction between palatal plane and the tangent odontoid processus (4.07 degrees, for PP/OPT angle and angle interaction between palatal plane and the tangent of cervical vertebra (4.95 degrees for PP/CVT angle. Airway dimension in the treated group increased, especially at the levels PNS-ad1 (2.52 mm, ve-pve (2.97 mm, and uv-puv (2.88 mm. No significant changes were observed in the control group

  1. Demographic changes following mechanical removal of exotic brown trout in an Intermountain West (USA), high-elevation stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, W. Carl; Budy, Phaedra E.; Thiede, Gary P.

    2015-01-01

    Exotic species present a great threat to native fish conservation; however, eradicating exotics is expensive and often impractical. Mechanical removal can be ineffective for eradication, but nonetheless may increase management effectiveness by identifying portions of a watershed that are strong sources of exotics. We used mechanical removal to understand processes driving exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations in the Logan River, Utah. Our goals were to: (i) evaluate the demographic response of brown trout to mechanical removal, (ii) identify sources of brown trout recruitment at a watershed scale and (iii) evaluate whether mechanical removal can reduce brown trout densities. We removed brown trout from 2 km of the Logan River (4174 fish), and 5.6 km of Right Hand Fork (RHF, 15,245 fish), a low-elevation tributary, using single-pass electrofishing. We compared fish abundance and size distributions prior to, and after 2 years of mechanical removal. In the Logan River, immigration to the removal reach and high natural variability in fish abundances limited the response to mechanical removal. In contrast, mechanical removal in RHF resulted in a strong recruitment pulse, shifting the size distribution towards smaller fish. These results suggest that, before removal, density-dependent mortality or emigration of juvenile fish stabilised adult populations and may have provided a source of juveniles to the main stem. Overall, in sites demonstrating strong density-dependent population regulation, or near sources of exotics, short-term mechanical removal has limited effects on brown trout populations but may help identify factors governing populations and inform large-scale management of exotic species.

  2. Changes of pulp-chamber dimensions 1 year after rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratieri, Carolina; Alves, Matheus; Mattos, Cláudia Trindade; Souza, Margareth Maria Gomes de; Ruellas, Antônio Carlos de Oliveira

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of orthopedic forces on maxillary first molars' and maxillary central incisors' pulp chambers in children having rapid maxillary expansion as the only intervention compared with children having no orthodontic intervention by using cone-beam computed tomography images. In this prospective controlled clinical study, we evaluated 60 maxillary first molars and 60 maxillary central incisors from 30 children (18 boys, 12 girls) in the mixed dentition and during the pubertal growth period. The treated group had rapid maxillary expansion with the Haas expander, followed by 6 months of retention and 6 months of follow-up out of retention; the control group had no intervention during the study. Cone-beam computed tomography scans were taken initially and 1 year after the rapid maxillary expansion active phase. Initially, a 3-dimensional scrolling in all pulp chambers of the evaluated teeth was performed with Dolphin Imaging software (version 11.0; Dolphin Imaging & Management Solutions, Chatsworth, Calif) to describe the incidence of pulp-chamber calcifications. The dimensions of the pulp chambers of the molars and incisors were also investigated. Cross-sectional and longitudinal slices were used for each molar (coronal and axial slices) and incisor (sagittal and axial slices). The area (mm(2)) was obtained from 3 slices of each kind (6 measurements for each tooth). The results suggest that rapid maxillary expansion did not induce new pulp-chamber calcification. Also, it did not interfere in normal pulp-chamber dimension changes of the anchorage molars. The pulp chamber of the central incisors can be expected to be minimally wider 1 year after the therapy. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Rapid response of a marine mammal species to holocene climate and habitat change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark de Bruyn

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental change drives demographic and evolutionary processes that determine diversity within and among species. Tracking these processes during periods of change reveals mechanisms for the establishment of populations and provides predictive data on response to potential future impacts, including those caused by anthropogenic climate change. Here we show how a highly mobile marine species responded to the gain and loss of new breeding habitat. Southern elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, remains were found along the Victoria Land Coast (VLC in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, 2,500 km from the nearest extant breeding site on Macquarie Island (MQ. This habitat was released after retreat of the grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment 7,500-8,000 cal YBP, and is within the range of modern foraging excursions from the MQ colony. Using ancient mtDNA and coalescent models, we tracked the population dynamics of the now extinct VLC colony and the connectivity between this and extant breeding sites. We found a clear expansion signal in the VLC population approximately 8,000 YBP, followed by directional migration away from VLC and the loss of diversity at approximately 1,000 YBP, when sea ice is thought to have expanded. Our data suggest that VLC seals came initially from MQ and that some returned there once the VLC habitat was lost, approximately 7,000 years later. We track the founder-extinction dynamics of a population from inception to extinction in the context of Holocene climate change and present evidence that an unexpectedly diverse, differentiated breeding population was founded from a distant source population soon after habitat became available.

  4. Ecological Pleiotropy Suppresses the Dynamic Feedback Generated by a Rapidly Changing Trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P

    2017-05-01

    Population dynamics may carry a signature of an ecology-evolution-ecology feedback, known as eco-evolutionary dynamics, when functionally important traits change. Given current theory, the absence of a feedback from a trait with strong links to species interactions should not occur. In a previous study with the Didinium-Paramecium predator-prey system, however, rapid and large-magnitude changes in predator cell volume occurred without any noticeable effect on the population dynamics. Here I resolve this theory-data conflict by showing that ecological pleiotropy-when a trait has more than one functional effect on an ecological process-suppresses shifts in dynamics that would arise, given the links between cell volume and the species interaction. Whether eco-evolutionary dynamics arise, therefore, depends not just on the ecology-evolution feedback but on the net effect that a trait has on different parts of the underlying interaction.

  5. Rapid directional change degrades GPS distance measurement validity during intermittent intensity running.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan C Rawstorn

    Full Text Available Use of the Global Positioning System (GPS for quantifying athletic performance is common in many team sports. The effect of running velocity on measurement validity is well established, but the influence of rapid directional change is not well understood in team sport applications. This effect was systematically evaluated using multidirectional and curvilinear adaptations of a validated soccer simulation protocol that maintained identical velocity profiles. Team sport athletes completed 90 min trials of the Loughborough Intermittent Shuttle-running Test movement pattern on curvilinear, and multidirectional shuttle running tracks while wearing a 5 Hz (with interpolated 15 Hz output GPS device. Reference total distance (13 200 m was systematically over- and underestimated during curvilinear (2.61±0.80% and shuttle (-3.17±2.46% trials, respectively. Within-epoch measurement uncertainty dispersion was widest during the shuttle trial, particularly during the jog and run phases. Relative measurement reliability was excellent during both trials (Curvilinear r = 1.00, slope = 1.03, ICC = 1.00; Shuttle r = 0.99, slope = 0.97, ICC = 0.99. Absolute measurement reliability was superior during the curvilinear trial (Curvilinear SEM = 0 m, CV = 2.16%, LOA ± 223 m; Shuttle SEM = 119 m, CV = 2.44%, LOA ± 453 m. Rapid directional change degrades the accuracy and absolute reliability of GPS distance measurement, and caution is recommended when using GPS to quantify rapid multidirectional movement patterns.

  6. MRI evaluation of body composition changes in wrestlers undergoing rapid weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukidome, T; Shirai, K; Kubo, J; Matsushima, Y; Yanagisawa, O; Homma, T; Aizawa, K

    2008-10-01

    Changes in body composition of college wrestlers undergoing rapid weight reduction were evaluated over time using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). This study evaluated 12 wrestlers (male, 18-22 years of age) who participated in Japan's 2005 intercollegiate wrestling tournament. For this study, MRI (of the right femoral region and the trunk), as well as measurements of body weight, body fat percentage and body water content, were performed 1 month and 1 week prior to the weigh-in, on the day of the weigh-in, on the day of the match (after the match), and 1 week after the weigh-in. A survey of food and fluid intake was also conducted. Several variables were significantly lower on the day of the weigh-in than one month prior: body weight (pfat (pmuscle, and trunk fat; quadriceps muscle; lower subcutaneous; and food intake (pweight reduction reduced the wrestlers' cross-sectional areas of muscle and fat tissues, which tended to recover through rehydration after the weigh-in. These results suggest that rapid weight reduction of wrestlers induced changes in different regions of the body.

  7. Health Systems Research in a Complex and Rapidly Changing Context: Ethical Implications of Major Health Systems Change at Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor, Hayley; Bloom, Gerald

    2016-12-01

    This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where 'country ownership' of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting 'embedded' research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change. © 2016 The Authors Developing World Bioethics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa A. McCauley; Christine A. Ribic; Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

    2017-01-01

    Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few...

  9. Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Pearce, John M.; Handel, Colleen M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

  10. Bird mercury concentrations change rapidly as chicks age: Toxicological risk is highest at hatching and fledging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2011-01-01

    Toxicological risk of methylmercury exposure to juvenile birds is complex due to the highly transient nature of mercury concentrations as chicks age. We examined total mercury and methylmercury concentrations in blood, liver, kidney, muscle, and feathers of 111 Forster's tern (Sterna forsteri), 69 black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus), and 43 American avocet (Recurvirostra americana) chicks as they aged from hatching through postfledging at wetlands that had either low or high mercury contamination in San Francisco Bay, California. For each waterbird species, internal tissue, and wetland, total mercury and methylmercury concentrations changed rapidly as chicks aged and exhibited a quadratic, U-shaped pattern from hatching through postfledging. Mercury concentrations were highest immediately after hatching, due to maternally deposited mercury in eggs, then rapidly declined as chicks aged and diluted their mercury body burden through growth in size and mercury depuration into growing feathers. Mercury concentrations then increased during fledging when mass gain and feather growth slowed, while chicks continued to acquire dietary mercury. In contrast to mercury in internal tissues, mercury concentrations in chick feathers were highly variable and declined linearly with age. For 58 recaptured Forster's tern chicks, the proportional change in blood mercury concentration was negatively related to the proportional change in body mass, but not to the amount of feathers or wing length. Thus, mercury concentrations declined more in chicks that gained more mass between sampling events. The U-shaped pattern of mercury concentrations from hatching to fledging indicates that juvenile birds may be at highest risk to methylmercury toxicity shortly after hatching when maternally deposited mercury concentrations are still high and again after fledging when opportunities for mass dilution and mercury excretion into feathers are limited.

  11. Rapid Changes in Cortical and Subcortical Brain Regions after Early Bilateral Enucleation in the Mouse.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga O Kozanian

    Full Text Available Functional sensory and motor areas in the developing mammalian neocortex are formed through a complex interaction of cortically intrinsic mechanisms, such as gene expression, and cortically extrinsic mechanisms such as those mediated by thalamic input from the senses. Both intrinsic and extrinsic mechanisms are believed to be involved in cortical patterning and the establishment of areal boundaries in early development; however, the nature of the interaction between intrinsic and extrinsic processes is not well understood. In a previous study, we used a perinatal bilateral enucleation mouse model to test some aspects of this interaction by reweighting sensory input to the developing cortex. Visual deprivation at birth resulted in a shift of intraneocortical connections (INCs that aligned with ectopic ephrin A5 expression in the same location ten days later at postnatal day (P 10. A prevailing question remained: Does visual deprivation first induce a change in gene expression, followed by a shift in INCs, or vice versa? In the present study, we address this question by investigating the neuroanatomy and patterns of gene expression in post-natal day (P 1 and 4 mice following bilateral enucleation at birth. Our results demonstrate a rapid reduction in dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (dLGN size and ephrin A5 gene expression 24-hours post-enucleation, with more profound effects apparent at P4. The reduced nuclear size and diminished gene expression mirrors subtle changes in ephrin A5 expression evident in P1 and P4 enucleated neocortex, 11 and 8 days prior to natural eye opening, respectively. Somatosensory and visual INCs were indistinguishable between P1 and P4 mice bilaterally enucleated at birth, indicating that perinatal bilateral enucleation initiates a rapid change in gene expression (within one day followed by an alteration of sensory INCs later on (second postnatal week. With these results, we gain a deeper understanding of how gene

  12. Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schut, A.G.T.; Wardell-Johnson, G.W.; Yates, C.J.; Keppel, G.; Baran, I.; Franklin, S.E.; Hopper, S.D.; Niel, Van K.P.; Mucina, L.; Byrne, M.

    2014-01-01

    Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs) provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic

  13. Selection on MHC in a Context of Historical Demographic Change in 2 Closely Distributed Species of Tuco-tucos (Ctenomys australis and C. talarum).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutrera, Ana Paula; Mora, Matías Sebastián

    2017-09-01

    Selection necessarily acts within the same current and historical demographic framework as neutral evolutionary processes, and the outcome of the interplay between these forces may vary according to their relative strength. In this study, we compare the variation at a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus (DRB exon 2), typically subject to strong diversifying selection, and mitochondrial diversity (D-loop) across populations encompassing the entire distribution of 2 species of South American subterranean rodents: Ctenomys australis and C. talarum (tuco-tucos). Although these species are parapatric along most of their distribution, historically they have followed distinct demographic trajectories associated with sea level changes during the Quaternary. We surveyed 8 populations of C. australis and 15 of C. talarum, from which we analyzed 70 and 212 D-loop haplotypes and 91 and 346 DRB genotypes, respectively. Both species have gone through a recent demographic expansion; however, the signal of this process only encompasses the entire distribution of one of the species: C. australis. While balancing selection on MHC in C. talarum-enhanced DRB diversity at the local level compared to D-loop, although not promoting divergence among populations, in C. australis local diversifying selection may have driven higher population differentiation at DRB than at D-loop. Our findings reinforce the idea that the relative strength of selection acting on MHC genes varies spatially and temporally within and among species, even between species using the same macrohabitat and exposed to similar immune challenges. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Rapid Land Cover Map Updates Using Change Detection and Robust Random Forest Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad J. Wessels

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IRMAD to identify areas of change and no change. The system then automatically generates large amounts of training samples (n > 1 million in the no-change areas as input to an optimized Random Forest classifier. Experiments were conducted in the KwaZulu-Natal Province of South Africa using a reference land cover map from 2008, a change mask between 2008 and 2011 and Landsat ETM+ data for 2011. The entire system took 9.5 h to process. We expected that the use of the change mask would improve classification accuracy by reducing the number of mislabeled training data caused by land cover change between 2008 and 2011. However, this was not the case due to exceptional robustness of Random Forest classifier to mislabeled training samples. The system achieved an overall accuracy of 65%–67% using 22 detailed classes and 72%–74% using 12 aggregated national classes. “Water”, “Plantations”, “Plantations—clearfelled”, “Orchards—trees”, “Sugarcane”, “Built-up/dense settlement”, “Cultivation—Irrigated” and “Forest (indigenous” had user’s accuracies above 70%. Other detailed classes (e.g., “Low density settlements”, “Mines and Quarries”, and “Cultivation, subsistence, drylands” which are required for operational, provincial-scale land use planning and are usually mapped using manual image interpretation, could not be mapped using Landsat spectral data alone. However, the system was able to map the 12 national classes, at a sufficiently high level of accuracy for national scale land cover monitoring. This update approach and the highly automated, scalable LALCUM system can improve the efficiency and update rate of regional land

  15. Serbian demographers on demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rašević Mirjana

    2013-01-01

    ageing were singled out the most as significant for examining in the immediate future. The inclusion of Stanovništvo on the Science Citation Information Journal List and expanding the circle of authors were the basic recommendations of the respondents regarding better quality of the journal. All interviewed experts mentioned various kinds of knowledge and characteristics necessary for demographers to posses in order to be successful. Contrary to the homogeneous opinion that a demographer should be a superior-researcher, a wide range of responses were given to the question regarding selecting the best indicator for determining the successfulness of researchers in the study of population. As many as eight out of ten interviewed experts believe population ageing is the greatest population challenge which Serbia is facing. However, a low level of consensus appeared among the demographers as regards the range of the political response. Namely, five experts declared they were pessimists in view of the possibilities for mitigating the challenge they singled out. On the contrary, five interviewed experts expressed optimism, as they believe in the economic development of Serbia, the possibilities of institutional adjustments to demographic changes, and/or in man and his rationality. Conclusion: Demographers in Serbia highly appreciate the discipline they belong to. At the same time they are strict critics and have high expectations in all matters dealing with demography. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006: Istraživanje demografskih fenomena u funkciji javnih politika u Srbiji

  16. The contribution of reduction in malaria as a cause of rapid decline of under-five mortality: evidence from the Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanté, Almamy M; Nathan, Rose; Helleringer, Stéphane; Sigilbert, Mrema; Levira, Francis; Masanja, Honorati; de Savigny, Don; Abdulla, Salim; Phillips, James F

    2014-05-10

    Under-five mortality has been declining rapidly in a number of sub-Saharan African settings. Malaria-related mortality is known to be a major component of childhood causes of death and malaria remains a major focus of health interventions. The paper explored the contribution of malaria relative to other specific causes of under-five deaths to these trends. This paper uses longitudinal demographic surveillance data to examine trends and causes of death of under-five mortality in Rufiji, whose population has been followed for over nine years (1999-2007). Causes of death, determined by the verbal autopsy technique, are analysed with Arriaga's decomposition method to assess the contribution of declining malaria-related mortality relative to other causes of death as explaining a rapid decline in overall childhood mortality. Over the 1999-2007 period, under-five mortality rate in Rufiji declined by 54.3%, from 33.3 to 15.2 per 1,000 person-years. If this trend is sustained, Rufiji will be a locality that achieves MDG4 target. Although hypotrophy at birth remained the leading cause of death for neonates, malaria remains as the leading cause of death for post-neonates followed by pneumonia. However, declines in malaria death rates accounted for 49.9% of the observed under-five mortality decline while all perinatal causes accounted for only 19.9%. To achieve MDG 4 in malaria endemic settings, health programmes should continue efforts to reduce malaria mortality and more efforts are also needed to improve newborn survival.

  17. Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dentoskeletal changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baka, Zeliha Muge; Akin, Mehmet; Ucar, Faruk Izzet; Ileri, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to quantitatively evaluate the changes in arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) and to compare the measurements between the crossbite and the noncrossbite sides with cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). From our clinic archives, we selected the CBCT records of 30 patients with unilateral skeletal crossbite (13 boys, 14.2 ± 1.3 years old; 17 girls, 13.8 ± 1.3 years old) who underwent ARME treatment. A modified acrylic bonded rapid maxillary expansion appliance including an occlusal locking mechanism was used in all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME treatment and after a 3-month retention period. Fourteen angular and 80 linear measurements were taken for the maxilla and the mandible. Frontally clipped CBCT images were used for the evaluation. Paired sample and independent sample t tests were used for statistical comparisons. Comparisons of the before-treatment and after-retention measurements showed that the arch widths and buccolingual inclinations of the posterior teeth increased significantly on the crossbite side of the maxilla and on the noncrossbite side of the mandible (P ARME treatment, the crossbite side of the maxilla and the noncrossbite side of the mandible were more affected than were the opposite sides. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Rapid change in the ciprofloxacin resistance pattern among Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains in Nuuk, Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjerbæk Rolskov, Anne; Bjorn-Mortensen, Karen; Mulvad, Gert

    2015-01-01

    ProbeTec). Monitoring of GC antibiotic susceptibility by culture was introduced in Nuuk in 2012. Until 2014, no cases of ciprofloxacin-resistant GC strains were reported. In this paper, we report the finding of ciprofloxacin-resistant GC and describe the most recent incidence of GC infections...... (9%) were positive, respectively. From January to August, 6 (15%) cultures from Nuuk were ciprofloxacin resistant while in September and October, 26 (59%) were ciprofloxacin resistant (presistance. GC incidence in Nuuk...... was 3,017 per 100,000 inhabitants per year, compared to 2,491 per 100,000 inhabitants per year in the rest of Greenland. CONCLUSION: Within a short period, a rapid and dramatic change in ciprofloxacin susceptibility among GC strains isolated in Nuuk was documented and recommendation for first line...

  19. Tracking Change in rapid and eXtreme Development: A Challenge to SCM-tools?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Henrik Bærbak

    2001-01-01

    Software configuration management (SCM) has proved to be an invaluable part of developing and maintaining high quality software. The benefits are not for free however: SCM tool operations often divert your attention from your development task, sometimes you have to endure a long waiting time while...... the tool does its job, change descriptions must be memorised until your next check-in, etc. This kind of overhead and disruption does not fit well with fast-paced development processes like rapid prototyping, explorative programming, and eXtreme Programming that favour creativity, speed, and communication...... more that managerial rigour. In the cost/benefit equation the balance may tip in favour of not using any SCM tool or only using a fraction of its potential. We think SCM has something to offer such projects, and present some proposals that may allow SCM tools to better suit the characteristics of fast...

  20. Comparison between rapid and mixed maxillary expansion through an assessment of arch changes on dental casts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassia, Vincenzo; d'Apuzzo, Fabrizia; Jamilian, Abdolreza; Femiano, Felice; Favero, Lorenzo; Perillo, Letizia

    2015-01-01

    Aim of this retrospective observational study was to compare upper and lower dental changes in patients treated with Rapid Maxillary Expansion (RME) and Mixed Maxillary Expansion (MME), assessed by dental cast analysis. Treatment groups consisted of 42 patients: the RME group (n = 21) consisted of 13 female and 8 male subjects with the mean age of 8.8 years ± 1.37 at T0 and 9.6 years ± 1.45 at T1; the MME group (n = 21) consisted of 12 female and 9 male patients with a mean age of 8.9 years ± 2.34 at T0 and 10.5 years ± 2.08 at T1. The upper and lower arch analysis was performed on four dental bilateral landmarks, on upper and lower casts; also upper and lower arch depths were measured. The groups were compared using independent sample t-test to estimate dental changes in upper and lower arches. Before expansion treatment (T0), the groups were similar for all examined variables (p>0.05). In both RME and MME group, significant increments in all the variables for maxillary and mandibular arch widths were observed after treatment. No significant differences in maxillary and mandibular arch depths were observed at the end of treatment in both groups. An evaluation of the changes after RME and MME (T1) showed statistically significant differences in mandibular arch depth (plip bumper effects" observed in the MME protocol.

  1. Morphologic changes of the palate after rapid maxillary expansion: a 3-dimensional computed tomography evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phatouros, Andriana; Goonewardene, Mithran S

    2008-07-01

    The purpose of this retrospective study was to estimate the area change of the palate after rapid maxillary expansion (RME) in the early mixed dentition stage by using a 3-dimensional (3D) helical computed tomography (CT) scanning technique. In addition, linear changes in the maxillary arch were evaluated. The treated sample consisted of 43 children (mean age, 9 years 1 month) treated with a bonded RME appliance. The untreated control group consisted of 7 children (mean age, 9 years 3 months). Pretreatment and posttreatment dental casts were evaluated by using 3D helical CT scanning procedures. The Student t test was used to compare the linear, area, and angular differences between the treatment times. RME produced clinically significant increases in interdental widths across the canines, the deciduous first molars, and the permanent first molars in the maxillary arch. Significant increases in cross-sectional area were observed across the permanent first molars (15.3 mm(2)). There was marked variability in the buccal tipping of the permanent first molars. Three-dimensional helical CT scanning is an accurate and cost-effective method of assessing dental cast morphologic changes. It can also provide fast and accurate data acquisition and subsequent analysis.

  2. New insights from coral growth band studies in an era of rapid environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lough, Janice M.; Cooper, Timothy F.

    2011-10-01

    The rapid formation of calcium carbonate coral skeletons (calcification) fuelled by the coral-algal symbiosis is the backbone of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, the efficacy of calcification is measurably influenced by the sea's physico-chemical environment, which is changing rapidly. Warming oceans have already led to increased frequency and severity of coral bleaching, and ocean acidification has a demonstrable potential to cause reduced rates of calcification. There is now general agreement that ocean warming and acidification are attributable to human activities increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and the large part of the extra carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) that is absorbed by oceans. Certain massive corals provide historical perspectives on calcification through the presence of dateable annual density banding patterns. Each band is a page in an environmental archive that reveals past responses of growth (linear extension, skeletal density and calcification rate) and provides a basis for prediction of future of coral growth. A second major line of research focuses on the measurement of various geochemical tracers incorporated into the growth bands, allowing the reconstruction of past marine climate conditions (i.e. palaeoclimatology). Here, we focus on the structural properties of the annual density bands themselves (viz. density; linear extension), exploring their utility in providing both perspectives on the past and pointers to the future of calcification on coral reefs. We conclude that these types of coral growth records, though relatively neglected in recent years compared to the geochemical studies, remain immensely valuable aids to unravelling the consequences of anthropogenic climate change on coral reefs. Moreover, an understanding of coral growth processes is an essential pre-requisite for proper interpretation of studies of geochemical tracers in corals.

  3. Rapid change in articulatory lip movement induced by preceding auditory feedback during production of bilabial plosives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochida, Takemi; Gomi, Hiroaki; Kashino, Makio

    2010-11-08

    There has been plentiful evidence of kinesthetically induced rapid compensation for unanticipated perturbation in speech articulatory movements. However, the role of auditory information in stabilizing articulation has been little studied except for the control of voice fundamental frequency, voice amplitude and vowel formant frequencies. Although the influence of auditory information on the articulatory control process is evident in unintended speech errors caused by delayed auditory feedback, the direct and immediate effect of auditory alteration on the movements of articulators has not been clarified. This work examined whether temporal changes in the auditory feedback of bilabial plosives immediately affects the subsequent lip movement. We conducted experiments with an auditory feedback alteration system that enabled us to replace or block speech sounds in real time. Participants were asked to produce the syllable /pa/ repeatedly at a constant rate. During the repetition, normal auditory feedback was interrupted, and one of three pre-recorded syllables /pa/, /Φa/, or /pi/, spoken by the same participant, was presented once at a different timing from the anticipated production onset, while no feedback was presented for subsequent repetitions. Comparisons of the labial distance trajectories under altered and normal feedback conditions indicated that the movement quickened during the short period immediately after the alteration onset, when /pa/ was presented 50 ms before the expected timing. Such change was not significant under other feedback conditions we tested. The earlier articulation rapidly induced by the progressive auditory input suggests that a compensatory mechanism helps to maintain a constant speech rate by detecting errors between the internally predicted and actually provided auditory information associated with self movement. The timing- and context-dependent effects of feedback alteration suggest that the sensory error detection works in a

  4. Rapid change in articulatory lip movement induced by preceding auditory feedback during production of bilabial plosives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takemi Mochida

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There has been plentiful evidence of kinesthetically induced rapid compensation for unanticipated perturbation in speech articulatory movements. However, the role of auditory information in stabilizing articulation has been little studied except for the control of voice fundamental frequency, voice amplitude and vowel formant frequencies. Although the influence of auditory information on the articulatory control process is evident in unintended speech errors caused by delayed auditory feedback, the direct and immediate effect of auditory alteration on the movements of articulators has not been clarified. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This work examined whether temporal changes in the auditory feedback of bilabial plosives immediately affects the subsequent lip movement. We conducted experiments with an auditory feedback alteration system that enabled us to replace or block speech sounds in real time. Participants were asked to produce the syllable /pa/ repeatedly at a constant rate. During the repetition, normal auditory feedback was interrupted, and one of three pre-recorded syllables /pa/, /Φa/, or /pi/, spoken by the same participant, was presented once at a different timing from the anticipated production onset, while no feedback was presented for subsequent repetitions. Comparisons of the labial distance trajectories under altered and normal feedback conditions indicated that the movement quickened during the short period immediately after the alteration onset, when /pa/ was presented 50 ms before the expected timing. Such change was not significant under other feedback conditions we tested. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The earlier articulation rapidly induced by the progressive auditory input suggests that a compensatory mechanism helps to maintain a constant speech rate by detecting errors between the internally predicted and actually provided auditory information associated with self movement. The timing- and context

  5. Interannual Change Detection of Mediterranean Seagrasses Using RapidEye Image Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimosthenis Traganos

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Recent research studies have highlighted the decrease in the coverage of Mediterranean seagrasses due to mainly anthropogenic activities. The lack of data on the distribution of these significant aquatic plants complicates the quantification of their decreasing tendency. While Mediterranean seagrasses are declining, satellite remote sensing technology is growing at an unprecedented pace, resulting in a wealth of spaceborne image time series. Here, we exploit recent advances in high spatial resolution sensors and machine learning to study Mediterranean seagrasses. We process a multispectral RapidEye time series between 2011 and 2016 to detect interannual seagrass dynamics in 888 submerged hectares of the Thermaikos Gulf, NW Aegean Sea, Greece (eastern Mediterranean Sea. We assess the extent change of two Mediterranean seagrass species, the dominant Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa, following atmospheric and analytical water column correction, as well as machine learning classification, using Random Forests, of the RapidEye time series. Prior corrections are necessary to untangle the initially weak signal of the submerged seagrass habitats from satellite imagery. The central results of this study show that P. oceanica seagrass area has declined by 4.1%, with a trend of −11.2 ha/yr, while C. nodosa seagrass area has increased by 17.7% with a trend of +18 ha/yr throughout the 5-year study period. Trends of change in spatial distribution of seagrasses in the Thermaikos Gulf site are in line with reported trends in the Mediterranean. Our presented methodology could be a time- and cost-effective method toward the quantitative ecological assessment of seagrass dynamics elsewhere in the future. From small meadows to whole coastlines, knowledge of aquatic plant dynamics could resolve decline or growth trends and accurately highlight key units for future restoration, management, and conservation.

  6. Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) changes in bariatric surgery patients undergoing rapid weight loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lankford, D Alan; Proctor, Charles D; Richard, Robert

    2005-03-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common condition in morbidly obese patients, with the reported prevalence ranging from 12-78%. There is increasing recognition of the need to diagnose and treat/manage OSA both preoperatively and postoperatively. Nasal CPAP is the preferred treatment of OSA; however, weight loss is associated with a reduction in required pressures. We evaluated the CPAP pressure requirements in a group of patients undergoing rapid weight loss following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. 15 patients who had been diagnosed with OSA before surgery were retrospectively evaluated. All patients had demonstrated compliance on home CPAP therapy, were minimally 3 months post-surgery and had follow-up reports that their CPAP was less effective. We obtained data on age, sex, weight, BMI, and apnea/hypopnea index (AHI). Optimal CPAP pressure was obtained initially through attended in-laboratory complex polysomnography. Follow-up CPAP pressure was obtained using an auto-titrating PAP device at home. These data were used to evaluate the pressure changes that accompanied weight loss. This group of patients had lost an average of 44.5 +/- 19.4 kg. Four patients had achieved their goal weight. Their starting CPAP pressures averaged 11 +/- 3.0 cm H2O, with a range of 7-18 cm H2O. Follow-up CPAP pressures averaged 9 +/- 2.7 cm H2O, with a range of 4-12 cm H2O, representing an overall reduction of 18%. The subgroup of patients who had achieved goal weight had a pressure reduction of 22% (9 +/- 2.0 to 7 +/- 1.0 cm H2O). CPAP pressure requirements change considerably in bariatric surgery patients undergoing rapid weight loss. Auto-titrating PAP devices have promise for facilitating the management of CPAP therapy during this time. Consideration should also be given to the use of autotitrating PAP units as the treatment of choice in these patients.

  7. 15year fulminant hepatitis B follow-up in Belgium: Viral evolution and signature of demographic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, Thomas; Amini-Bavil-Olyaee, Samad; Shirvani-Dastgerdi, Elham; Trovão, Nídia Sequeira; Van Ranst, Marc; Pourkarim, Mahmoud Reza

    2017-04-01

    Fulminant hepatitis among different clinical outcomes of hepatitis B virus infection is very rare and manifests high mortality rate, however it has not been investigated in Belgian inhabitants yet. In the frame of a retrospective study between 1995 and 2010, 80 serum samples (in some cases serial samples) archived in Biobank, were collected from 24 patients who had clinically developed fulminant infection of hepatitis B virus. In total, 33 hepatitis B virus (HBV) strains (31 full-length genome and 2 partial viral genes) of different HBV genotypes and subgenotypes including A2, B2, D1, D2, D3 and E, were amplified, sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed. HBV isolated strains from native and exotic patients were characterized by genome variations associated with viral invasiveness. Although several mutations at nucleotide and protein levels were detected, evolutionary analyses revealed a negative selective pressure over the viral genomes. This study revealed influence of immigration through a steady change in the viral epidemiological profile of the Belgian population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. An invasive species induces rapid adaptive change in a native predator: cane toads and black snakes in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Ben L; Shine, Richard

    2006-06-22

    Rapid environmental change due to human activities has increased rates of extinction, but some species may be able to adapt rapidly enough to deal with such changes. Our studies of feeding behaviour and physiological resistance to toxins reveal surprisingly rapid adaptive responses in Australian black snakes (Pseudechis porphyriacus) following the invasion of a lethally toxic prey item, the cane toad (Bufo marinus). Snakes from toad-exposed localities showed increased resistance to toad toxin and a decreased preference for toads as prey. Separate laboratory experiments suggest that these changes are not attributable to learning (we were unable to teach naive snakes to avoid toxic prey) or to acquired resistance (repeated sub-lethal doses did not enhance resistance). These results strongly suggest that black snake behaviour and physiology have evolved in response to the presence of toads, and have done so rapidly. Toads were brought to Australia in 1935, so these evolved responses have occurred in fewer than 23 snake generations.

  9. Demographic histories of three predatory lady beetles reveal complex patterns of diversity and population size change in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethuraman, Arun; Janzen, Fredric J; Rubio, Michael A; Vasquez, Yumary; Obrycki, John J

    2017-05-15

    Predatory lady beetles (Coccinellidae) contribute to biological control of agricultural pests, however, multiple species frequently compete for similar resources in the same environment. Numerous studies have examined ecological interactions among the native North American convergent lady beetle (Hippodamia convergens) and two introduced species, the seven-spotted lady beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) and the Asian lady beetle (Harmonia axyridis), in agricultural fields and described multiyear population dynamics. However, the evolutionary dynamics of these interacting species of predatory beetles are uncharacterized. We utilize publicly available multilocus genotype data from geographically disjunct populations of these three species to estimate demography across North American populations. Coalescent analyses reveal (1) a recent (∼4-5 years) decline (>12 fold) in microsatellite effective population size of H. convergens, while expanding (mutation scaled growth rate in 1/u generations = 2910, SD = 362) over evolutionary time scales, (2) a massive (>150 fold), and very recent, effective population size decline in Ha. axyridis, and (3) population size growth (mutation scaled growth rate = 997, SD = 60) over recent and evolutionary time scales in C. septempunctata. Although these estimates are based on genetic data with different mutation rates and patterns of inheritance (mitochondrial versus nuclear), these dynamic and differing population size histories are striking. Further studies of the interactions of these predatory lady beetles in the field are thus warranted to explore the consequences of population size change and biological control activities for evolutionary trajectories in North America. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  10. A decade of rapid change: Biocultural influences on child growth in highland Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oths, Kathryn S; Smith, Hannah N; Stein, Max J; Lazo Landivar, Rodrigo J

    2017-10-30

    In the past decade many areas of Peru have been undergoing extreme environmental, economic, and cultural change. In the highland hamlet of Chugurpampa, La Libertad, climate change has ruined harvests and led to frequent periods of migration to the coast in search of livelihood. This biocultural research examines how the changes could be affecting the growth of children who maintain residence in the highlands. Clinical records from the early 2000s were compared to those from the early 2010s. Charts were randomly selected to record anthropometric data, netting a sample of 75 children ages 0-60 months of age. Analysis of covariance was run to compare mean stature, weight, and BMI between cohorts. Percentage of children who fall below the -2 threshold for z-scores for height and weight were compared by age and cohort. A significant secular trend in growth was found, with children born more recently larger than those born a decade before. The effect is most notable in the first year of life, with the growth advantage attenuated by the age of 3 for height and age 4 for weight. While children were unlikely to be stunted from 0 to 3 years of age, 44% of the later cohort were stunted and 11% were underweight from 4 to 5 years of age. Three possible explanations for the rapid shift are entertained: more time spent on the coast during gestation and early childhood, which may attenuate the effect of hypoxia on child growth; dietary change; and increased use of biomedicine. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Socio-demographic factors and processes associated with stages of change for smoking cessation in pregnant versus non-pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buja, Alessandra; Guarnieri, Emanuela; Forza, Giovanni; Tognazzo, Federica; Sandonà, Paolo; Zampieron, Alessandra

    2011-01-24

    The tobacco control community assumes that the most effective interventions are personalized. Nevertheless, little attention is paid to understanding differences between pregnant and non-pregnant European women in terms of the social factors that influence tobacco use and the processes of change used to quit smoking. The study consecutively enrolled 177 pregnant women who acknowledged smoking the year before pregnancy and 177 non-pregnant women who acknowledged smoking the year before their clinic visit for a Pap test. With respect to socio-demographic factors, the stages of change in pregnant women were associated with level of education, marital status, and the presence of roommates, partners and friends who smoke. In pregnant women, there was no statistically significant difference in the processes used to stop smoking among the stages of change. Furthermore, behavioral processes were higher in non-pregnant women than in pregnant women, and the difference was statistically significant in the advanced stages of behavioral change. Both pregnant and non-pregnant women showed higher levels of acceptance towards smoking in the earlier stages of change, but the acceptability of smoking in the pre-contemplative stage was higher in non-pregnant women. Greater craving was detected in non-pregnant vs. pregnant women at all stages and reached a statistically significant level at the pre-contemplative stage. Pregnancy is a favorable time to stop smoking since pregnant women are more likely to be in an advanced stage of behavioral change. Pregnant and non-pregnant women are distinct populations in the types and processes of change involved in smoking cessation. The intervention programs to promote smoking cessation and prevent relapses will need to take these differences into account.

  12. [Increase in uro-oncological health care needs due to demographic change: Extrapolation of cancer incidence numbers through 2030 as a basis for directed regional planning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, A; Vohmann, C; Wawroschek, F; Kieschke, J

    2015-09-01

    In Germany a considerable increase in the number of urological cancers is expected due to demographic change. Small-scale analyses are important for directed planning of uro-oncological health care due to significant regional variability in the demographic development. In this study the number of new urological cancer cases was extrapolated on the county level for Lower Saxony. The incidence rates for penile (C60), prostate (C61), testis (C62), kidney (C64), renal pelvis/ureter (C65-66) and bladder cancer (C67, D09.0, D41.4) were extrapolated for counties and urban communes from 2010 to 2020 and to 2030 based on the regional population forecast of the State Office for Statistics of Lower Saxony (2009-2031) and gender- and 5-year age-specific incidence rates for Lower Saxony (averaged for 2006-2010). From 2010 (n=12.668) to 2020 and 2030, increases of 15% (n = 14.519; men: 15%, women: 10%) and 28% (n=16.201; men: 29%, women: 20%) are expected in urological cancers for Lower Saxony. The greatest rise is predicted for prostate cancer (2030: 31%, n = 9.732; C67 + D09.0 + D41.4: 30%; C60: 28%; C65-66: 27%; C64: 19%). Only testicular carcinomas are expected to decrease (-13%). The increase varies considerably between regions. In the counties the rates range from 7% (2030; C61: 10%) in Osterode am Harz to 63% in Vechta (C61: 70%). In the urban communes the greatest increase is predicted for Oldenburg (total: 40%; C61: 45%) and the lowest increase for Wolfsburg (total: 3%; C61: 3%). Demographic change is expected to lead to a sharp increase in urological cancers. In health care planning (e.g. specialist care) regionally very heterogeneous developments and in particular high growth and close to home care of more and more older and less mobile cancer sufferers, respectively, must be considered for rural areas.

  13. Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotaling, Scott; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Ali, Omar; Jordan, Steve; Miller, Michael R.; Luikart, Gordon; Weisrock, David W.

    2018-01-01

    AimClimate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results.LocationAlpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.TaxonLednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae.MethodsWe generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results.ResultsContemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation.Main conclusionsWe identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of

  14. Late Quaternary Biosiliceous Laminated Marine Sediments From Antarctica: Seasonality During a Period of Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, J.; Stickley, C. E.; Maddison, E. J.; Leventer, A.; Brachfeld, S.; Domack, E. W.; Dunbar, R. B.; Manley, P. L.; McClennen, C.

    2004-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet plays a key role in global oceanic and atmosphere systems. One of the most dynamic regions of the continent is the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) where ecological and cryospheric systems respond rapidly to climate change, such as the last deglaciation ( ˜12-13 kyr BP). Here, deglacial laminated diatom-rich marine sediments are well known, e.g., Palmer Deep (64° S 64° W; ODP Hole 1098A) comprising a distinctive 3 m thick sequence of deglacial `couplet' laminations. The East Antarctic margin (EAM), however, has received less attention than the West Antarctic margin (WAM) in palaeoceanographic studies yet its role in deep ocean circulation and, therefore, the global ocean system is significant. Recent sediment cores recovered from EAM sites during NSF Polar Programs-funded cruise NBP0101 in February and March 2001 (e.g. Mertz Drift \\{66° S 143° E\\}, Svenner Channel \\{69° S 77° E\\} in Prydz Bay, Nielsen Basin \\{67° S 66° E\\} and Iceberg Alley \\{67° S 63° E\\}), reveal that a similar sedimentary facies was deposited along the EAM, in similar geomorphological settings to Palmer Deep, during the same timeframe. These rich sediment archives reveal clues about circum-Antarctic palaeoceanographic change during the last deglaciation, a time of both high silica flux and rapid climate change. Microfabrics and diatom assemblages from scanning electron microscope backscattered and secondary electron imagery analysis of coeval deglacial varves from Palmer Deep (WAM), Mertz-Ninnis Trough and Iceberg Alley (EAM) are presented and compared. The varves from these localities are characterised by laminae to thin beds of orange-brown diatom ooze up to ˜8cm thick alternating with blue-grey diatom-bearing terrigenous sediments up to ˜4cm thick. The orange-brown oozes are dominated by resting spores and vegetative valves of Hyalochaete Chaetoceros spp., resulting from spring sedimentation associated with stratified surface waters promoting exceptionally

  15. The Impact of Rapid Climate Change on Prehistoric Societies during the Holocene in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard Weninger

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we explore the impact of Rapid Climate Change (RCC on prehistoric communities in the Eastern Mediterranean during the Early and Middle Holocene. Our focus is on the social implications of the four major climate cold anomalies that have recently been identified as key time-windows for global RCC (Mayewski et al. 2004. These cooling anomalies are well-dated, with Greenland ice-core resolution, due to synchronicity between warm/cold foraminifera ratios in Mediterranean core LC21 as a proxy for surface water temperature, and Greenland GISP2 non sea-salt (nss [K+] ions as a proxy for the intensification of the Siberian High and for polar air outbreaks in the northeast Mediterranean (Rohling et al. 2002. Building on these synchronisms, the GISP2 agemodel supplies the following precise time-intervals for archaeological RCC research: (i 8.6–8.0 ka, (ii 6.0–5.2 ka, (iii 4.2–4.0 ka and (iv 3.1–2.9 ka calBP. For each of these RCC time intervals, based on detailed 14C-based chronological studies, we investigate contemporaneous cultural developments. From our studies it follows that RCC-related climatic deterioration is a major factor underlying social change, although always at work within a wide spectrum of social, cultural, economic and religious factors.

  16. [Peruvian demographic transition].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbajal Chirinos, C

    1988-06-01

    The demographic transition is conceptualized as the historic change from high to low fertility and mortality rates in a population. Peru's population was reduced by an estimated 80% as a result of new diseases, destruction of the economy, and the brutal regime of colonial exploitation after the Spanish conquest. From colonial times to the least the 1940s, Peru's principal population problem was the scarcity of manpower. The population grew at an annual rate of about .03% between 1650 and 1800, increasing to about 1.3% between 1876 and 1940. High fertility throughout the 19th century and a stabilization of mortality due to reduced incidence and deadliness of epidemics contributed to the increased growth rate. In the 1940s the process of demographic transition was initiated by abrupt declines in mortality. The crude death rate declined from 27/1000 in 1940 to 16/1000 in 1961 and 9/1000 in 1988, with the rate still declining. Fertility remained high and possibly increased slightly. The crude birth rate was estimated at 45/1000 in 1940 and 45.4/1000 in 1961. Improvements in infant and general mortality rates in developing countries like Peru result from diffusion of technological advances in prevention and control of diseases and improvement in health services rather than from changes in the economic and social structure. The 3rd phase of the demographic transition began with declines in fertility from 45.4/1000 in 1961 to 42.0/1000 in 1972 and 36.0/1000 in 1981. Despite declines, mortality and fertility continue to be elevated in Peru. The theory of demographic transition views the reduction of infant mortality, improvements in health and educational conditions and the condition of women, and more equitable income distribution as essential for a true decline in birth rates. In Peru, however, fertility has declined in a context of deteriorating living conditions and in the absence of effective family planning programs. The process of demographic transition must be

  17. Rapid change in drift of the Australian plate records collision with Ontong Java plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knesel, Kurt M; Cohen, Benjamin E; Vasconcelos, Paulo M; Thiede, David S

    2008-08-07

    The subduction of oceanic plateaux, which contain extraordinarily thick basaltic crust and are the marine counterparts of continental flood-basalt provinces, is an important factor in many current models of plate motion and provides a potential mechanism for triggering plate reorganization. To evaluate such models, it is essential to decipher the history of the collision between the largest and thickest of the world's oceanic plateaux, the Ontong Java plateau, and the Australian plate, but this has been hindered by poor constraints for the arrival of the plateau at the Melanesian trench. Here we present (40)Ar-(39)Ar geochronological data on hotspot volcanoes in eastern Australian that reveal a strong link between collision of the Greenland-sized Ontong Java plateau with the Melanesian arc and motion of the Australian plate. The new ages define a short-lived period of reduced northward plate motion between 26 and 23 Myr ago, coincident with an eastward offset in the contemporaneous tracks of seamount chains in the Tasman Sea east of Australia. These features record a brief westward deflection of the Australian plate as the plateau entered and choked the Melanesian trench 26 Myr ago. From 23 Myr ago, Australia returned to a rapid northerly trajectory at roughly the same time that southwest-directed subduction began along the Trobriand trough. The timing and brevity of this collisional event correlate well with offsets in hotspot seamount tracks on the Pacific plate, including the archetypal Hawaiian chain, and thus provide strong evidence that immense oceanic plateaux, like the Ontong Java, can contribute to initiating rapid change in plate boundaries and motions on a global scale.

  18. Subchondral Bone Plate Changes More Rapidly than Trabecular Bone in Osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaitunnatakhin Zamli

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Osteoarthritis (OA is the most common joint disorder, characterised by focal loss of cartilage and increased subchondral bone remodelling at early OA stages of the disease. We have investigated the temporal and the spatial relationship between bone remodelling in subchondral bone plate (Sbp and trabecular bone (Tb in Dunkin Hartley (DH, develop OA early and the Bristol Strain 2 (BS2, control which develop OA late guinea pigs. Right tibias were dissected from six male animals of each strain, at 10, 16, 24 and 30 weeks of age. Micro-computed tomography was used to quantify the growth plate thickness (GpTh, subchondral bone plate thickness (SbpTh and trabecular bone thickness (TbTh, and bone mineral density (BMD in both Sbp and Tb. The rate of change was calculated for 10–16 weeks, 16–24 weeks and 24–30 weeks. The rate of changes in Sbp and Tb thickness at the earliest time interval (10–16 weeks were significantly greater in DH guinea pigs than in the growth-matched control strain (BS2. The magnitude of these differences was greater in the medial side than the lateral side (DH: 22.7 and 14.75 µm/week, BS2: 5.63 and 6.67 µm/week, respectively. Similarly, changes in the BMD at the earliest time interval was greater in the DH strain than the BS2, again more pronounced in the disease prone medial compartment (DH: 0.0698 and 0.0372 g/cm3/week, BS2: 0.00457 and 0.00772 g/cm3/week, respectively. These changes observed preceded microscopic and cellular signs of disease as previously reported. The rapid early changes in SbpTh, TbTh, Sbp BMD and Tb BMD in the disease prone DH guinea pigs compared with the BS2 control strain suggest a link to early OA pathology. This is corroborated by the greater relative changes in subchondral bone in the medial compared with the lateral compartment.

  19. A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, Erin; Saab, Victoria A.; Sojda, Richard S.; Dickinson, Katherine; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Newlon, Karen R.

    2012-12-01

    Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species' response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species' response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis's Woodpecker ( Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis's Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.

  20. Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd C Atwood

    Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

  1. Rapid changes in cell physiology as a result of acute thermal stress house sparrows, Passer domesticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Ana G; Williams, Joseph B

    2014-12-01

    Given that our climate is rapidly changing, Physiological Ecologists have the critical task of identifying characteristics of species that make them either resilient or susceptible to changes in their natural air temperature regime. Because climate change models suggest that heat events will become more common, and in some places more extreme, it is important to consider how extreme heat events might affect the physiology of a species. The implications of more frequent heat wave events for birds have only recently begun to be addressed, however, the impact of these events on the cellular physiology of a species is difficult to assess. We have developed a novel approach using dermal fibroblasts to explore how short-term thermal stress at the whole animal level might affect cellular rates of metabolism. House sparrows, Passer domesticus were separated into a "control group" and a "heat shocked" group, the latter acclimated to 43°C for 24h. We determined the plasticity of cellular thermal responses by assigning a "recovery group" that was heat shocked as above, but then returned to room temperature for 24h. Primary dermal fibroblasts were grown from skin of all treatment groups and the pectoralis muscle was collected. We found that glycolysis (ECAR) and oxygen consumption rates (OCR), measured using a Seahorse XF 96 analyzer, were significantly higher in the fibroblasts from the heat shocked group of House sparrows compared with their control counterparts. Additionally, muscle fiber diameters decreased and, in turn, Na(+)-K(+)-ATPase maximal activity in the muscle significantly increased in heat shocked sparrows compared with birds in the control group. All of these physiological alterations due to short-term heat exposure were reversible within 24h of recovery at room temperature. These results show that acute exposure to heat stress significantly alters the cellular physiology of sparrows, but that this species is plastic enough to recover from such a thermal

  2. Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic-Palaeogene greenhouse world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkyns, Hugh C

    2003-09-15

    The best-documented example of rapid climate change that characterized the so-called 'greenhouse world' took place at the time of the Palaeocene-Eocene boundary: introduction of isotopically light carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, accompanied by global warming of 5-8 degrees C across a range of latitudes, took place over a few thousand years. Dissociation, release and oxidation of gas hydrates from continental-margin sites and the consequent rapid global warming from the input of greenhouses gases are generally credited with causing the abrupt negative excursions in carbon- and oxygen-isotope ratios. The isotopic anomalies, as recorded in foraminifera, propagated downwards from the shallowest levels of the ocean, implying that considerable quantities of methane survived upward transit through the water column to oxidize in the atmosphere. In the Mesozoic Era, a number of similar events have been recognized, of which those at the Triassic-Jurassic boundary, in the early Toarcian (Jurassic) and in the early Aptian (Cretaceous) currently carry the best documentation for dramatic rises in temperature. In these three examples, and in other less well-documented cases, the lack of a definitive time-scale for the intervals in question hinders calculation of the rate of environmental change. However, comparison with the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) suggests that these older examples could have been similarly rapid. In both the early Toarcian and early Aptian cases, the negative carbon-isotope excursion precedes global excess carbon burial across a range of marine environments, a phenomenon that defines these intervals as oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Osmium-isotope ratios ((187)Os/(188)Os) for both the early Toarcian OAE and the PETM show an excursion to more radiogenic values, demonstrating an increase in weathering and erosion of continental crust consonant with elevated temperatures. The more highly buffered strontium-isotope system ((87)Sr/(86)Sr

  3. Relative contribution of decreased productivity and survival to recent changes in the demographic trend of the Rivière George Caribou Herd

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    M. Crête

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available The Rivière George caribou herd (RGCH was numerically low during the middle part of the century but apparently erupted in the sixties and the seventies. Puberty was early and pregnancy rate was high among RGCH females from 1973 until the mid-eighties when fecundity decreased significantly, in particular among sub-adults; productivity remained low in 1992. Autumn calf:female ratios reflected this trend in pregnancy, exceeding 50 calves: 100 cows between 1973 and 1983, but dropping thereafter progressively to a low of 24 in 1992. In 1993, this ratio rebounded back to 42. Annual adult survival rate of radio-collared females was high (0.95 at the beginning of the monitoring in 1984, but exhibited a variable but declining trend until 1992. Simulations were conducted to estimate the demographic trend of the RGCH between 1984 and 1992, using annual survival rates of radio-collared animals and annual autumn calffemale ratios to estimate calf production. Age structure played a minor role in estimating the finite rate of increase (Lamda. According to the simulations, the RGCH increased in size until 1987, and showed a slight decrease thereafter. The herd should have decreased by 12-15% between 1988 and 1993, according to the simulations. Productivity first caused a decline in Lamda, but in recent years decreased survival contributed slightly more than productivity to the reduction in Lamda. Estimation of the herd size by means of aerial censuses in 1976, 1984, 1988 and 1993 suggested a similar pattern in demographic trend, differences being statistically meaningless. We speculated on the future of the RGCH, that could have erupted after many decades of unfavourable weather. The herd will exhibit a rapid descent to low numbers if wolves show a numerical response to current caribou abundance, or if lichen availability on the winter range decreases due to competition with the adjacent and increasing Rivière aux Feuilles herd; otherwise it will exhibit

  4. Three dimensional evaluation of alveolar bone changes in response to different rapid palatal expansion activation rates

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    Brian LaBlonde

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: The aim of this multi-center retrospective study was to quantify the changes in alveolar bone height and thickness after using two different rapid palatal expansion (RPE activation protocols, and to determine whether a more rapid rate of expansion is likely to cause more adverse effects, such as alveolar tipping, dental tipping, fenestration and dehiscence of anchorage teeth. Methods: The sample consisted of pre- and post-expansion records from 40 subjects (age 8-15 years who underwent RPE using a 4-banded Hyrax appliance as part of their orthodontic treatment to correct posterior buccal crossbites. Subjects were divided into two groups according to their RPE activation rates (0.5 mm/day and 0.8 mm/day; n = 20 each group. Three-dimensional images for all included subjects were evaluated using Dolphin Imaging Software 11.7 Premium. Maxillary base width, buccal and palatal cortical bone thickness, alveolar bone height, and root angulation and length were measured. Significance of the changes in the measurements was evaluated using Wilcoxon signed-rank test and comparisons between groups were done using ANOVA. Significance was defined at p ≤ 0.05. Results: RPE activation rates of 0.5 mm per day (Group 1 and 0.8 mm per day (Group 2 caused significant increase in arch width following treatment; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Buccal alveolar height and width decreased significantly in both groups. Both treatment protocols resulted in significant increases in buccal-lingual angulation of teeth; however, Group 2 showed greater increases compared to Group 1 (p < 0.01. Conclusion: Both activation rates are associated with significant increase in intra-arch widths. However, 0.8 mm/day resulted in greater increases. The 0.8 mm/day activation rate also resulted in more increased dental tipping and decreased buccal alveolar bone thickness over 0.5 mm/day.

  5. Dental arch changes associated with rapid maxillary expansion: A retrospective model analysis study

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    Ivor M D′Souza

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Transverse deficiency of the maxilla is a common clinical problem in orthodontics and dentofacial orthopedics. Transverse maxillary deficiency, isolated or associated with other dentofacial deformities, results in esthetic and functional impairment giving rise to several clinical manifestations such as asymmetrical facial growth, positional and functional mandibular deviations, altered dentofacial esthetics, adverse periodontal responses, unstable dental tipping, and other functional problems. Orthopedic maxillary expansion is the preferred treatment approach to increase the maxillary transverse dimension in young patients by splitting of the mid palatal suture. This orthopedic procedure has lately been subject of renewed interest in orthodontic treatment mechanics because of its potential for increasing arch perimeter to alleviate crowding in the maxillary arch without adversely affecting facial profile. Hence, the present investigation was conducted to establish a correlation between transverse expansion and changes in the arch perimeter, arch width and arch length. Methods: For this purpose, 10 subjects (five males, five females were selected who had been treated by rapid maxillary expansion (RME using hyrax rapid palatal expander followed by fixed mechanotherapy (PEA. Pretreatment (T1, postexpansion (T2, and posttreatment (T3 dental models were compared for dental changes brought about by RME treatment and its stability at the end of fixed mechanotherapy. After model measurements were made, the changes between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were determined for each patient. The mean difference between T1-T2, T2-T3 and T1-T3 were compared to assess the effects of RME on dental arch measurements. Results are expressed as mean ± standard deviation and are compared by repeated measures analysis of variance followed by a post-hoc test. Arch perimeter changes are correlated with changes in arch widths at the canine, premolar and molar

  6. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len; Buwen Dong

    2017-01-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This ...

  7. A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

    2012-12-01

    The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

  8. Modeling cavitation in a rapidly changing pressure field - application to a small ultrasonic horn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žnidarčič, Anton; Mettin, Robert; Dular, Matevž

    2015-01-01

    Ultrasonic horn transducers are frequently used in applications of acoustic cavitation in liquids. It has been observed that if the horn tip is sufficiently small and driven at high amplitude, cavitation is very strong, and the tip can be covered entirely by the gas/vapor phase for longer time intervals. A peculiar dynamics of the attached cavity can emerge with expansion and collapse at a self-generated frequency in the subharmonic range, i.e. below the acoustic driving frequency. The term "acoustic supercavitation" was proposed for this type of cavitation Žnidarčič et al. (2014) [1]. We tested several established hydrodynamic cavitation models on this problem, but none of them was able to correctly predict the flow features. As a specific characteristic of such acoustic cavitation problems lies in the rapidly changing driving pressures, we present an improved approach to cavitation modeling, which does not neglect the second derivatives in the Rayleigh-Plesset equation. Comparison with measurements of acoustic supercavitation at an ultrasonic horn of 20kHz frequency revealed a good agreement in terms of cavity dynamics, cavity volume and emitted pressure pulsations. The newly developed cavitation model is particularly suited for simulation of cavitating flow in highly fluctuating driving pressure fields. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Disease in the Rapidly Changing Economy of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yangfeng; Benjamin, Emelia J; MacMahon, Stephen

    2016-06-14

    With one-fifth of the world's total population, China's prevention and control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may affect the success of worldwide efforts to achieve sustainable CVD reduction. Understanding China's current cardiovascular epidemic requires awareness of the economic development in the past decades. The rapid economic transformations (industrialization, marketization, urbanization, globalization, and informationalization) contributed to the aging demography, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental changes. The latter have predisposed to increasing cardiovascular risk factors and the CVD pandemic. Rising CVD rates have had a major economic impact, which has challenged the healthcare system and the whole society. With recognition of the importance of health, initial political steps and national actions have been taken to address the CVD epidemic. Looking to the future, we recommend that 4 priorities should be taken: pursue multisectorial government and nongovernment strategies targeting the underlying causes of CVD (the whole-of-government and whole-of-society policy); give priority to prevention; reform the healthcare system to fit the nature of noncommunicable diseases; and conduct research for evidence-based, low-cost, simple, sustainable, and scalable interventions. By pursuing the 4 priorities, the pandemic of CVD and other major noncommunicable diseases in China will be reversed and the global sustainable development goal achieved. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  10. Dental and skeletal changes following surgically assisted rapid maxillary anterior-posterior expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Cheng-Ting; Lo, Lun-Jou; Liou, Eric J W; Huang, Chiung Shing

    2008-01-01

    Lengthening the maxillary dental arch as a treatment approach for patients with maxillary deficiency and dental crowding is seldom reported. The purpose of this study was to assess dental and skeletal changes in the maxilla in the correction of maxillary deficiency associated with a retruded maxillary arch using a surgically assisted rapid maxillary anterior-posterior expansion appliance. Predistraction and postraction lateral cephalometric and periapical radiographs and maxillary dental casts of six young adolescents (four boys, two girls, mean age 11 years, 2 months) were examined. These patients received a maxillary anterior segmental osteotomy and distraction osteogenesis with an anteroposteriorly oriented Hyrax expansion appliance based on the biological principles of bone distraction. The retruded dental arch and dental crowding were successfully corrected. Significant forward movement of the point anterior nasal spine, point A, central incisors and first premolars was noted. The maxillary dental arch depth increased an average of 4.2 mm while the arch width remained unchanged. In total, 11.5 mm of dental space was created in the maxillary arch which was sufficient to resolve dental crowding. New bone formation along the distraction site was observed three months after distraction. The use of maxillary anterior segmental osteotomy combined with a Hyrax expansion distraction appliance was effective in arch lengthening and creation of dental space. An overcorrection in this interdental distraction osteogenesis could be a good treatment option for children with maxillary deficiency combined with crowded maxillary dentition.

  11. Rapid changes in genetic architecture of behavioural syndromes following colonization of a novel environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson Green, K; Eroukhmanoff, F; Harris, S; Pettersson, L B; Svensson, E I

    2016-01-01

    Behavioural syndromes, that is correlated behaviours, may be a result from adaptive correlational selection, but in a new environmental setting, the trait correlation might act as an evolutionary constraint. However, knowledge about the quantitative genetic basis of behavioural syndromes, and the stability and evolvability of genetic correlations under different ecological conditions, is limited. We investigated the quantitative genetic basis of correlated behaviours in the freshwater isopod Asellus aquaticus. In some Swedish lakes, A. aquaticus has recently colonized a novel habitat and diverged into two ecotypes, presumably due to habitat-specific selection from predation. Using a common garden approach and animal model analyses, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters for behavioural traits and compared the genetic architecture between the ecotypes. We report that the genetic covariance structure of the behavioural traits has been altered in the novel ecotype, demonstrating divergence in behavioural correlations. Thus, our study confirms that genetic correlations behind behaviours can change rapidly in response to novel selective environments. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  12. Rapid morphological oscillation of mitochondrion-rich cell in estuarine mudskipper following salinity changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, T; Yokota, S; Ando, M

    2000-05-01

    Morphological changes in the chloride cells or mitochondrion-rich (MR) cells in the skin under the pectoral fin of the estuarine mudskipper (Periophthalmus modestus) were examined in relation to intertidal salinity oscillation in river mouth. MR cells were distinguished between those in contact with the water (cells labeled with both mitochondrial probe DASPEI and Concanavalin-A, an apical surface marker of MR cells) and those that are not (DASPEI-positive only). After transfer of the fish from seawater to freshwater, no difference in the total MR cell density was observed, but the subpopulation of MR cells that are Concanavalin-A-positive decreased dramatically within 30 min. After 6 hr in freshwater, the fish were returned to seawater; the number of Con-A-positive MR cells increased to the initial levels rapidly. Thus, in seawater, mudskippers seem to open the apical crypts of the MR cells to secrete salt; in freshwater, they close the crypt of the MR cells tentatively, and tolerate hypotonicity until the rising tide. This unique response of chloride cells may also be seen in gills of other estuarine species.

  13. Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Repins, Ingrid L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hacke, Peter L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jordan, Dirk [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kempe, Michael D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitfield, Kent [Underwriters Laboratories; Phillips, Nancy [DuPont; Sample, Tony [European Commission; Monokroussos, Christos [TUV Rheinland; Hsi, Edward [Swiss RE; Wohlgemuth, John [PowerMark Corporation; Seidel, Peter [First Solar; Jahn, Ulrike [TUV Rheinland; Tanahashi, Tadanori [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Chen, Yingnan [China General Certification Center; Jaeckel, Bengt [Underwriters Laboratories; Yamamichi, Masaaki [RTS Corporation

    2017-10-05

    Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.

  14. Volumetric upper airway changes after rapid maxillary expansion: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buck, Lloyd M; Dalci, Oyku; Darendeliler, M Ali; Papageorgiou, Spyridon N; Papadopoulou, Alexandra K

    2017-10-01

    Although Rapid Maxillary Expansion (RME) has been used for over a century, its effect on upper airways has not yet adequately been assessed in an evidence-based manner. To investigate the volumetric changes in the upper airway spaces following RME in growing subjects by means of acoustic rhinometry, three-dimensional radiography and digital photogrammetry. Literature search of electronic databases and additional manual searches up to February 2016. Randomized clinical trials, prospective or retrospective controlled clinical trials and cohort clinical studies of at least eight patients, where the RME appliance was left in place for retention, and a maximum follow-up of 8 months post-expansion. After duplicate data extraction and assessment of the risk of bias, the mean differences and 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) of upper airway volume changes were calculated with random-effects meta-analyses, followed by subgroup analyses, meta-regressions, and sensitivity analyses. Twenty studies were eligible for qualitative synthesis, of which 17 (3 controlled clinical studies and 14 cohort studies) were used in quantitative analysis. As far as total airway volume is concerned patients treated with RME showed a significant increase post-expansion (5 studies; increase from baseline: 1218.3mm3; 95 per cent CI: 702.0 to 1734.6mm3), which did not seem to considerably diminish after the retention period (11 studies; increase from baseline: 1143.9mm3; 95 per cent CI: 696.9 to 1590.9mm3). However, the overall quality of evidence was judged as very low, due to methodological limitations of the included studies, absence of untreated control groups, and inconsistency among studies. RME seems to be associated with an increase in the nasal cavity volume in the short and in the long term. However, additional well-conducted prospective controlled clinical studies are needed to confirm the present findings. None. Australian Society of Orthodontics Foundation for Research and

  15. Stakeholder perspectives on triage in wildlife monitoring in a rapidly changing Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen C Wheeler

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring activities provide a core contribution to wildlife conservation in the Arctic. Effective monitoring which allows changes in population status to be detected early, provides opportunities to mitigate pressures driving declines. Monitoring triage involves decisions about how and where to prioritise activities in species and ecosystem based monitoring. In particular, monitoring triage examines whether to divert resources away from species where there is high likelihood of extinction in the near-future in favour of species where monitoring activities may produce greater conservation benefits. As a place facing both rapid change with a high likelihood of population extinctions, and serious logistic and financial challenges for field data acquisition, the Arctic provides a good context in which to examine attitudes toward triage in monitoring.For effective decision-making to emerge from monitoring, multiple stakeholders must be involved in defining aims and priorities. We conducted semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in arctic wildlife monitoring (either contributing to observation and recording of wildlife, using information from wildlife observation and recording, or using wildlife as a resource to elicit their perspectives on triage in wildlife monitoring in the Arctic.The majority (56% of our 23 participants were predominantly in opposition to triage, 26% were in support of triage and 17% were undecided. Representatives of Indigenous organisations were more likely to be opposed to triage than scientists and those involved in decision-making showed greatest support for triage amongst the scientist participants. Responses to the concept of triage included that: 1 The species-focussed approach associated with triage did not match their more systems-based view (5 participants, 2 Important information is generated through monitoring threatened species which advances understanding of the drivers of change, responses and ecosystem

  16. Migration, settlement change and health in post-apartheid South Africa: Triangulating health and demographic surveillance with national census data1

    Science.gov (United States)

    COLLINSON, MARK A.; TOLLMAN, STEPHEN M.; KAHN, KATHLEEN

    2010-01-01

    Background World population growth will be increasingly concentrated in the urban areas of the developing world; however, some scholars caution against the oversimplification of African urbanization noting that there may be “counter-urbanization” and a prevailing pattern of circular rural–urban migration. The aim of the paper is to examine the ongoing urban transition in South Africa in the post-apartheid period, and to consider the health and social policy implications of prevailing migration patterns. Methods Two data sets were analysed, namely the South African national census of 2001 and the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system. A settlement-type transition matrix was constructed on the national data to show how patterns of settlement have changed in a five-year period. Using the sub-district data, permanent and temporary migration was characterized, providing migration rates by age and sex, and showing the distribution of origins and destinations. Findings The comparison of national and sub-district data highlight the following features: urban population growth, particularly in metropolitan areas, resulting from permanent and temporary migration; prevailing patterns of temporary, circular migration, and a changing gender balance in this form of migration; stepwise urbanization; and return migration from urban to rural areas. Conclusions Policy concerns include: rural poverty exacerbated by labour migration; explosive conditions for the transmission of HIV; labour migrants returning to die in rural areas; and the challenges for health information created by chronically ill migrants returning to rural areas to convalesce. Lastly, suggestions are made on how to address the dearth of relevant population information for policy-making in the fields of migration, settlement change and health. PMID:17676507

  17. Diverse multi-decadal changes in streamflow within a rapidly urbanizing region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, Jeremy E.; Hill, T. Chee; Milligan, Richard A.

    2018-01-01

    The impact of urbanization on streamflow depends on a variety of factors (e.g., climate, initial land cover, inter-basin transfers, water withdrawals, wastewater effluent, etc.). The purpose of this study is to examine trends in streamflow from 1986 to 2015 in a range of watersheds within the rapidly urbanizing Atlanta, GA metropolitan area. This study compares eight watersheds over three decades, while minimizing the influence of inter-annual precipitation variability. Population and land-cover data were used to analyze changes over approximately twenty years within the watersheds. Precipitation totals for the watersheds were estimated using precipitation totals at nearby weather stations. Multiple streamflow variables, such as annual streamflow, frequencies of high-flow days (HFDs), flashiness, and precipitation-adjusted streamflow, for the eight streams were calculated using daily streamflow data. Variables were tested for significant trends from 1986 to 2015 and significant differences between 1986-2000 and 2001-2015. Flashiness increased for all streams without municipal water withdrawals, and the four watersheds with the largest increase in developed land had significant increases in flashiness. Significant positive trends in precipitation-adjusted mean annual streamflow and HFDs occurred for the two watersheds (Big Creek and Suwanee Creek) that experienced the largest increases in development, and these were the only watersheds that went from majority forest land in 1986 to majority developed land in 2015. With a disproportionate increase in HFD occurrence during summer, Big Creek and Suwannee Creek also had a reduction in intra-annual variability of HFD occurrence. Watersheds that were already substantially developed at the beginning of the period and did not have wastewater discharge had declining streamflow. The most urbanized watershed (Peachtree Creek) had a significant decrease in streamflow, and a possible cause of the decrease was increasing

  18. Transcranial Random Noise Stimulation (tRNS Shapes the Processing of Rapidly Changing Auditory Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina S. Rufener

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Neural oscillations in the gamma range are the dominant rhythmic activation pattern in the human auditory cortex. These gamma oscillations are functionally relevant for the processing of rapidly changing acoustic information in both speech and non-speech sounds. Accordingly, there is a tight link between the temporal resolution ability of the auditory system and inherent neural gamma oscillations. Transcranial random noise stimulation (tRNS has been demonstrated to specifically increase gamma oscillation in the human auditory cortex. However, neither the physiological mechanisms of tRNS nor the behavioral consequences of this intervention are completely understood. In the present study we stimulated the human auditory cortex bilaterally with tRNS while EEG was continuously measured. Modulations in the participants’ temporal and spectral resolution ability were investigated by means of a gap detection task and a pitch discrimination task. Compared to sham, auditory tRNS increased the detection rate for near-threshold stimuli in the temporal domain only, while no such effect was present for the discrimination of spectral features. Behavioral findings were paralleled by reduced peak latencies of the P50 and N1 component of the auditory event-related potentials (ERP indicating an impact on early sensory processing. The facilitating effect of tRNS was limited to the processing of near-threshold stimuli while stimuli clearly below and above the individual perception threshold were not affected by tRNS. This non-linear relationship between the signal-to-noise level of the presented stimuli and the effect of stimulation further qualifies stochastic resonance (SR as the underlying mechanism of tRNS on auditory processing. Our results demonstrate a tRNS related improvement in acoustic perception of time critical auditory information and, thus, provide further indices that auditory tRNS can amplify the resonance frequency of the auditory system.

  19. Traps as treats: a traditional sticky rice snack persisting in rapidly changing Asian kitchens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwallier, Rachel; de Boer, Hugo J; Visser, Natasja; van Vugt, Rogier R; Gravendeel, Barbara

    2015-03-24

    An accessory to modern developing economies includes a shift from traditional, laborious lifestyles and cuisine to more sedentary careers, recreation and convenience-based foodstuffs. Similar changes in the developed western world have led to harmful health consequences. Minimization of this effect in current transitional cultures could be met by placing value on the maintenance of heritage-rich food. Vitally important to this is the preservation and dissemination of knowledge of these traditional foods. Here, we investigate the history and functionality of a traditional rice snack cooked in Nepenthes pitchers, one of the most iconic and recognizable plants in the rapidly growing economic environment of Southeast Asia. Social media was combined with traditional ethnobotanical surveys to conduct investigations throughout Malaysian Borneo. Interviews were conducted with 25 market customers, vendors and participants from various ethnical groups with an in-depth knowledge of glutinous rice cooked in pitcher plants. The acidity of pitcher fluid was measured during experimental cooking to analyze possible chemical avenues that might contribute to rice stickiness. Participants identifying the snack were almost all (96%) from indigenous Bidayuh or Kadazandusun tribal decent. They prepare glutinous rice inside pitcher traps for tradition, vessel functionality and because they thought it added fragrance and taste to the rice. The pH and chemical activity of traps analyzed suggest there is no corresponding effect on rice consistency. Harvest of pitchers does not appear to decrease the number of plants in local populations. The tradition of cooking glutinous rice snacks in pitcher plants, or peruik kera in Malay, likely carries from a time when cooking vessels were more limited, and persists only faintly in tribal culture today because of value placed on maintaining cultural heritage. Social media proved a valuable tool in our research for locating research areas and in

  20. Extremely rapid directional change during Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic polarity reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagnotti, Leonardo; Scardia, Giancarlo; Giaccio, Biagio; Liddicoat, Joseph C.; Nomade, Sebastien; Renne, Paul R.; Sprain, Courtney J.

    2014-11-01

    We report a palaeomagnetic investigation of the last full geomagnetic field reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) transition, as preserved in a continuous sequence of exposed lacustrine sediments in the Apennines of Central Italy. The palaeomagnetic record provides the most direct evidence for the tempo of transitional field behaviour yet obtained for the M-B transition. 40Ar/39Ar dating of tephra layers bracketing the M-B transition provides high-accuracy age constraints and indicates a mean sediment accumulation rate of about 0.2 mm yr-1 during the transition. Two relative palaeointensity (RPI) minima are present in the M-B transition. During the terminus of the upper RPI minimum, a directional change of about 180 ° occurred at an extremely fast rate, estimated to be less than 2 ° per year, with no intermediate virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) documented during the transit from the southern to northern hemisphere. Thus, the entry into the Brunhes Normal Chron as represented by the palaeomagnetic directions and VGPs developed in a time interval comparable to the duration of an average human life, which is an order of magnitude more rapid than suggested by current models. The reported investigation therefore provides high-resolution integrated palaeomagnetic and radioisotopic data that document the fine details of the anatomy and tempo of the M-B transition in Central Italy that in turn are crucial for a better understanding of Earth's magnetic field, and for the development of more sophisticated models that are able to describe its global structure and behaviour.

  1. Rapid Changes in CB1 Receptor Availability in Cannabis Dependent Males after Abstinence from Cannabis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Souza, Deepak Cyril; Cortes-Briones, Jose A; Ranganathan, Mohini; Thurnauer, Halle; Creatura, Gina; Surti, Toral; Planeta, Beata; Neumeister, Alexander; Pittman, Brian; Normandin, Marc; Kapinos, Michael; Ropchan, Jim; Huang, Yiyun; Carson, Richard E; Skosnik, Patrick D

    2016-01-01

    The widespread use of cannabis, the increasing legalization of "medical" cannabis, the increasing potency of cannabis and the growing recreational use of synthetic cannabinoid 1 receptor (CB1R) full agonists underscores the importance of elucidating the effects of cannabinoids on the CB1R system. Exposure to cannabinoids is known to result in CB1R downregulation. However, the precise time course of changes in CB1R availability in cannabis dependent subjects (CDs) following short and intermediate term abstinence has not been determined. Using High Resolution Research Tomography (HRRT) and [(11)C]OMAR, CB1R availability as indexed by the volume of distribution (VT) [(11)C]OMAR was measured in male CDs (n=11) and matched healthy controls (HCs) (n=19). CDs were scanned at baseline (while they were neither intoxicated nor in withdrawal), and after 2 days and 28 days of monitored abstinence. HCs were scanned at baseline and a subset (n=4) was rescanned 28 days later. Compared to HCs, [(11)C]OMAR VT was 15% lower in CDs (effect size Cohen's d=-1.11) at baseline in almost all brain regions. However, these group differences in CB1R availability were no longer evident after just 2 days of monitored abstinence from cannabis. There was a robust negative correlation between CB1R availability and withdrawal symptoms after 2 days of abstinence. Finally, there were no significant group differences in CB1R availability in CDs after 28 days of abstinence. Cannabis dependence is associated with CB1R downregulation, which begins to reverse surprisingly rapidly upon termination of cannabis use and may continue to increase over time.

  2. Competition for cognitive resources during rapid serial processing: changes across childhood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine eHeim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to direct cognitive resources to target objects despite distraction by competing information plays an important role for the development of mental aptitudes and skills. We examined developmental changes of this ability in a cross-sectional design, using the attentional blink (AB paradigm. The AB is a pronounced impairment of T2 report, which occurs when a first (T1 and second target (T2 embedded in a rapid stimulus sequence are separated by at least one distractor and occur within 500 ms of each other. Two groups of children (6 to 7 year-olds and 10 to 11 year-olds; ns = 21 and 24, respectively were asked to identify green targets in two AB tasks: one using non-linguistic symbols and the other letters or words. The temporal distance or stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA between T1 and T2 varied between no intervening distractor (Lag 1, 116-ms SOA and up to 7 intervening distractors (Lag 8, 928-ms SOA. In the symbol task, younger children linearly increased T2 identification with increasing lag. Older children, however, displayed a hook-shaped pattern as typically seen in adults, with lowest identification reports in T2 symbols at the critical blink interval (Lag 2, 232-ms SOA, and a slight performance gain for the Lag-1 condition. In the verbal task, the older group again exhibited a prominent drop in T2 identification at Lag 2, whereas the younger group showed a more alleviated and temporally diffuse AB impairment. Taken together, this pattern of results suggests that the control of attention allocation and/or working memory consolidation of targets among distractors represents a cognitive skill that emerges during primary school age.

  3. Dual-energy synchrotron X ray measurements of rapid soil density and water content changes in swelling soils during infiltration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnier, Patricia; Angulo-Jaramillo, Rafael; DiCarlo, David A.; Bauters, Tim W. J.; Darnault, Christophe J. G.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.; Parlange, J.-Yves; Baveye, Philippe

    1998-11-01

    Understanding soil swelling is hampered by the difficulty of simultaneously measuring water content and bulk density. A number of studies have used dual-energy gamma rays to investigate soil swelling. The long counting time of this technique makes it impracticable for studying the rapid changes in moisture content and soil swelling shortly after infiltration is initiated. In this paper, we use the dual-energy synchrotron X ray to measure, for the first time, the water content and bulk density changes during the fast, initial phase of the swelling process. Ponded infiltration experiments were performed with two soils: a bentonite-sand mixture and a vertisol. Swelling curves and hydraulic diffusivity were determined. Deformation was very rapid immediately after water application and then became progressively slower. The hydraulic diffusivity decreased with time, which can partially explain the very rapid decrease in infiltration rates observed in the field.

  4. [Impact of demographic change on the employment for carers in central Germany. An analysis of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, M; Weyh, A

    2013-08-01

    This article provides a detailed analysis of the current state of the labor market for long-term carers in the Federal States of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia and uses model calculations to derive trends until the year 2025. Examining the current situation, we look at the ratio of unemployed persons to registered job vacancies, the duration of the vacancy, the short-term and long-term employment trend, the replacement demand, and the job-specific unemployment rates. In addition, wages are discussed as the central clearing mechanism between labor demand and labor supply. Employment bottlenecks are evident for nurses and social workers, which will be exacerbated in the future owing to a strong demographic change. On the one hand, demand for long-term care will grow along with the increase of elderly people. On the other hand, the labor force potential and hence the supply of long-term carers will decrease. Model calculations show that in these three Federal States, between 18,100 and 31,700 long-term carers (in full-time employment) will additionally be needed for the elderly. Employers in this field will face grave challenges in meeting these needs.

  5. Medical student socio-demographic characteristics and attitudes toward patient centered care: do race, socioeconomic status and gender matter? A report from the Medical Student CHANGES study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardeman, Rachel R; Burgess, Diana; Phelan, Sean; Yeazel, Mark; Nelson, David; van Ryn, Michelle

    2015-03-01

    To determine whether attitudes toward patient-centered care differed by socio-demographic characteristics (race, gender, socioeconomic status) among a cohort of 3191 first year Black and White medical students attending a stratified random sample of US medical schools. This study used baseline data from Medical Student CHANGES, a large national longitudinal cohort study of medical students. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the association of race, gender and SES with attitudes toward patient-centered care. Female gender and low SES were significant predictors of positive attitudes toward patient-centered care. Age was also a significant predictor of positive attitudes toward patient-centered care such that students older than the average age of US medical students had more positive attitudes. Black versus white race was not associated with attitudes toward patient-centered care. New medical students' attitudes toward patient-centered care may shape their response to curricula and the quality and style of care that they provide as physicians. Some students may be predisposed to attitudes that lead to both greater receptivity to curricula and the provision of higher-quality, more patient-centered care. Medical school curricula with targeted messages about the benefits and value of patient-centered care, framed in ways that are consistent with the beliefs and world-view of medical students and the recruitment of a socioeconomically diverse sample of students into medical schools are vital for improved care. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  6. Personal and demographic factors and change of subjective indoor air quality reported by school children in relation to exposure at Swedish schools: a 2-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Juan; Smedje, Greta; Nordquist, Tobias; Norbäck, Dan

    2015-03-01

    This paper studies changes in subjective indoor air quality (SIAQ) among school children and relates these data to repeated exposure measurements during a two-year follow-up period. Data on SIAQ and demographic information were gathered by a questionnaire sent to 1476 primary and secondary school pupils in 39 randomly selected schools at baseline and after two years (follow-up). Exposure measurements were applied after questionnaire data were collected at baseline and follow-up in approximately 100 classrooms. The arithmetic mean values for baseline and follow-up were: for indoor air temperature 23.6°C and 21.8°C and for outdoor air flow rate 5.4 L/s and 7.9L/s. Older children, those with atopy at baseline, and those in larger schools reported impaired SIAQ during follow-up. Installation of new ventilation systems, higher personal air flow rate and air exchange rate, and better illumination were associated with improved SIAQ. Higher CO2 levels were associated with impaired SIAQ. In conclusion, sufficient ventilation and illumination in classrooms are essential for the perception of good indoor air quality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Organizational Adaptation to the Rapidly Changing External Environment: A Case Study of Strategic Marketing at Notre Dame College in Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Shawn M.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis examined the role of strategic marketing in organizational adaptation to a rapidly changing and competitive external environment among institutions of higher education. Colleges and universities adapt to external pressures as open systems operating within a broader external environment (Bess & Dee, 2008; Keller, 1983). How does…

  8. MR Diffusion Tensor Imaging Detects Rapid Microstructural Changes in Amygdala and Hippocampus Following Fear Conditioning in Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Abby Y.; Li, Qi; Zhou, Iris Y.; Ma, Samantha J.; Tong, Gehua; McAlonan, Grainne M.; Wu, Ed X.

    2013-01-01

    Background Following fear conditioning (FC), ex vivo evidence suggests that early dynamics of cellular and molecular plasticity in amygdala and hippocampal circuits mediate responses to fear. Such altered dynamics in fear circuits are thought to be etiologically related to anxiety disorders including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Consistent with this, neuroimaging studies of individuals with established PTSD in the months after trauma have revealed changes in brain regions responsible for processing fear. However, whether early changes in fear circuits can be captured in vivo is not known. Methods We hypothesized that in vivo magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) would be sensitive to rapid microstructural changes elicited by FC in an experimental mouse PTSD model. We employed a repeated measures paired design to compare in vivo DTI measurements before, one hour after, and one day after FC-exposed mice (n = 18). Results Using voxel-wise repeated measures analysis, fractional anisotropy (FA) significantly increased then decreased in amygdala, decreased then increased in hippocampus, and was increasing in cingulum and adjacent gray matter one hour and one day post-FC respectively. These findings demonstrate that DTI is sensitive to early changes in brain microstructure following FC, and that FC elicits distinct, rapid in vivo responses in amygdala and hippocampus. Conclusions Our results indicate that DTI can detect rapid microstructural changes in brain regions known to mediate fear conditioning in vivo. DTI indices could be explored as a translational tool to capture potential early biological changes in individuals at risk for developing PTSD. PMID:23382811

  9. Demographic Dividends Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey G. Williamson

    2013-01-01

    This paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost 2 decades of debate. In 1998, David Bloom and I used a convergence model to estimate the impact of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the literature has come to call the “demographic dividend.” These early estimates seem to be similar to those coming from more recent overlapping generation models, when properly estimated. Research has shown that the demographic dividend is not simply a labor part...

  10. Change in the socio-demographic profile of consumers of organic produce/Mudanca no perfil sociodemografico de consumidores de produtos organicos

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pereira, Maristela Costamilan; Muller, Catia Regina; Rodrigues, Fernanda Souza Abduch; Moutinho, Angelica Bandeira Afonso; Rodrigues, Kelly Lameiro; Botelho, Fabiana Torma

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this study was to establish the socio-demographic profile, health status and the relationship with the consumption of organic produce among consumers who frequent different agroecological...

  11. Reconstructing historical snow depth surfaces to evaluate changes in critical demographic rates and habitat components of snow‐dependent and snow‐restricted species

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Manning, Jeffrey A; Garton, Edward O

    2012-01-01

    .... As many demographic studies depend on long‐term population data that extend back beyond available sources of spatially continuous snow depth data, reliable hindcasting of snow depth surface maps is needed. 2.  We developed a two...

  12. End-of-life decision-making for patients admitted through the emergency department: hospital variability, patient demographics, and changes over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Derek K; Zive, Dana M; Newgard, Craig D

    2013-04-01

    Early studies suggest that racial, economic, and hospital-based factors influence the do-not-attempt-resuscitation (DNAR) status of admitted patients, although it remains unknown how these factors apply to patients admitted through the emergency department (ED) and whether use is changing over time. The objective was to examine patient and hospital attributes associated with DNAR orders placed within 24 hours of admission through the ED and changes in DNAR use over time. This was a population-based, retrospective cross-sectional study of patients 65 years and older admitted to 367 acute care hospitals in California between 2002 and 2010; the subset of patients admitted through the ED formed the primary sample. The primary outcome was placement of a DNAR order within 24 hours of admission. Associations between DNAR order placement and hospital characteristics, patient demographics, and year were tested. Descriptive statistics are reported, and multivariable logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to account for clustering within hospitals. There were 9,507,921 patients older than 65 years admitted to 367 California hospitals over the 9-year period, of whom 1,029,335 (10.8%) had DNAR orders placed within 24 hours of admission; 83% of DNAR orders were placed for patients admitted through the ED. Among patients over 65 years admitted through the ED (n = 6,396,910), DNAR orders were used less frequently at teaching hospitals (9.5% vs. 13.7%), for-profit hospitals (8.6% vs. 14.6% nonprofit), nonrural hospitals (12.0% vs. 26.2%), and large hospitals (11.1% vs. 15.0% for hospitals in the smallest quartile for bed size; all p < 0.0001). In regression modeling adjusted for clustering and patient demographics, these trends persisted for all hospital types, except teaching hospitals. Decreased DNAR frequency was associated with race (African American odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.51 to 0.67; Asian OR = 0

  13. Trends in attitudes towards female genital mutilation among ever-married Egyptian women, evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys, 1995-2014: paths of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Rossem, Ronan; Meekers, Dominique; Gage, Anastasia J

    2016-02-24

    Over the past few decades Egypt has attempted to limit and control female genital mutilation (FGM). However, these efforts have not succeeded in curbing the practice, which maintains wide popular support and is firmly embedded in local traditions and structures. An attitudinal change is therefore a prerequisite for any successful campaign against FGM. This paper charts the evolution of beliefs that the practice of FGM in Egypt should be stopped. This paper examines trends in opposition to FGM among ever-married women in Egypt between 1995 and 2014, using six waves of the Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys. The results show that the percentage of ever-married women who think the practice of FGM should be stopped rose from 13.9 % in 1995 to 31.3 % in 2014. The central question here is whether this trend exists because new cohorts of young married women are more modern and more opposed to the practice, or because opposition to FGM has spread through multiple segments of society. Our results show that back in 1995 opposition to FGM was concentrated in two groups: non-circumcised women, and wealthy, highly educated urban women. Between 1995 and 2014 opposition to FGM increased considerably among other groups of women. Our results show that the observed increases in opposition to FGM are not caused by younger cohorts of married women who oppose FGM, nor by the expansion of the groups most likely to oppose FGM. Rather, the results imply that the belief that FGM should be stopped spread to all walks of life, although poorly educated rural women remain least likely to oppose FGM.

  14. Rapid land cover map updates using change detection and robust random forest classifiers

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wessels, Konrad J

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper evaluated the Landsat Automated Land Cover Update Mapping (LALCUM) system designed to rapidly update a land cover map to a desired nominal year using a pre-existing reference land cover map. The system uses the Iteratively Reweighted...

  15. Tropical rodents change rapidly germinating seeds into long-term food supplies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, P.A.; Bongers, F.J.J.M.; Prins, H.H.T.

    2006-01-01

    Seed-hoarding vertebrates may survive yearly periods of food scarcity by storing seeds during the preceding fruiting season. It is poorly understood why rodents creating long-term reserves, especially those in the tropics, incorporate seeds from plant species that germinate rapidly and hence seem

  16. Assessing surface albedo change and its induced radiation budget under rapid urbanization with Landsat and GLASS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yonghong; Jia, Gensuo; Pohl, Christine; Zhang, Xiaoxuan; van Genderen, John

    2016-02-01

    Radiative forcing (RF) induced by land use (mainly surface albedo) change is still not well understood in climate change science, especially the effects of changes in urban albedo due to rapid urbanization on the urban radiation budget. In this study, a modified RF derivation approach based on Landsat images was used to quantify changes in the solar radiation budget induced by variations in surface albedo in Beijing from 2001 to 2009. Field radiation records from a Beijing meteorological station were used to identify changes in RF at the local level. There has been rapid urban expansion over the last decade, with the urban land area increasing at about 3.3 % annually from 2001 to 2009. This has modified three-dimensional urban surface properties, resulting in lower albedo due to complex building configurations of urban centers and higher albedo on flat surfaces of suburban areas and cropland. There was greater solar radiation (6.93 × 108 W) in the urban center in 2009 than in 2001. However, large cropland and urban fringe areas caused less solar radiation absorption. RF increased with distance from the urban center (less than 14 km) and with greater urbanization, with the greatest value being 0.41 W/m2. The solar radiation budget in urban areas was believed to be mainly influenced by urban structural changes in the horizontal and vertical directions. Overall, the results presented herein indicate that cumulative urbanization impacts on the natural radiation budget could evolve into an important driver of local climate change.

  17. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien

    2016-01-01

    associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionaryresponse to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into modelspredicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change...... experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response.......Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out innatural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response...

  18. [The demographic history of Majorca].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, A; Suau, J

    1986-03-01

    Data from parochial records, censuses, and other sources are analyzed to study the demographic changes that occurred between 1590 and 1789 in the Spanish island of Majorca. Topics covered include population density, spatial distribution, urbanization, infant mortality, and fertility. A bibliography of 86 references is included.

  19. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...

  20. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter?s Eight Steps of Change

    OpenAIRE

    Wheeler, Terrie R.; Holmes, Kristi L.

    2017-01-01

    Background Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. Results This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter?s Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small...

  1. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...... species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change....

  2. Molar changes with cervical headgear alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchiori Farret, Marcel; de Lima, Eduardo Martinelli S; Pereira Araújo, Vanessa; Deon Rizzatto, Susana Maria; Macedo de Menezes, Luciane; Lima Grossi, Marcio

    2008-09-01

    To test the hypothesis that there is no difference in the distal movement of the maxillary first permanent molars when cervical headgear is used alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion. The sample was composed of 36 subjects (aged 9 to 13 years), treated in the Faculty of Dentistry, Pontifícia Universidade Cat;aaolica, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The individuals were in good health and in their pubertal growth period. All had Class II division 1 malocclusion. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 (22 subjects), Class II, with a normal transverse maxilla treated with cervical traction headgear (HG) 400 g 12 h/d, and group 2 (14 subjects), Class II maxillary transverse deficiency treated with rapid maxillary expansion plus cervical traction headgear (RME + HG). An additional group 3 (17 subjects) served as a control group and included individuals with the same characteristics. All subjects had two lateral cephalograms: initial (T1) and progress (T2), taken 6 months later. Differences between T1 and T2 were compared with the Student's t-test, and three groups were compared by the analysis of variance and Tukey multiple comparison test. Results showed greater distal tipping and greater distal movement of the first permanent molars in group 1 (HG) than in group 2 (RME + HG), P .05). The hypothesis was rejected. Cervical traction headgear alone produced greater distal movement effects in maxillary first permanent molars when compared with rapid maxillary expansion associated with cervical headgear.

  3. Rapid analysis of time series data to identify changes in electricity consumption patterns in UK secondary schools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuart, Graeme; Fleming, Paul; Ferreira, Vasco [Institute of Energy and Sustainable Development, De Montfort University, The Gateway, Leicester, LE1 9BH (United Kingdom); Harris, Peter [Cheriton Technology Management Ltd., Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2007-04-15

    This paper presents a methodology for energy professionals to identify potential electricity saving opportunities in buildings from the analysis of half-hourly electricity consumption data. The technique recommended in UK government good practice guidance for use with monthly gas data has been applied to half-hourly electricity data from 37 secondary schools. The technique monitors consumption over time, identifying any changes in patterns and quantifying their effects. It has the advantage of being both high resolution and quick to employ. The analysis produces results that allow energy professionals to rapidly detect changes in electricity consumption. (author)

  4. Automatic change detection in RapidEye data using the combined MAD and kernel MAF methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hecheltjen, Antje; Thonfeld, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The IR-MAD components show changes for a large part of the entire subset. Especially phenological changes in the agricultural fields surrounding the open pit are predominant. As opposed to this, kMAF components focus more on changes in the open-cast mine (and changes due to the two clouds...... and their shadows, not visible in the zoom). Ground data were available from bucket-wheel excavators on the extraction side (to the northwest in the open pit) in terms of elevation data for both dates. No ground data were available for changes due to backfill (southeastern part of the open pit) or changes due...... to mining machines other than the bucket-wheels....

  5. Longitudinal Change in the Use of Services in Autism Spectrum Disorder: Understanding the Role of Child Characteristics, Family Demographics, and Parent Cognitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siller, Michael; Reyes, Nuri; Hotez, Emily; Hutman, Ted; Sigman, Marian

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify child characteristics, family demographics, and parent cognitions that may affect access to early intervention, special education, and related services. The sample included 70 families of young children with autism spectrum disorders. All parents were enrolled in a short education program, providing them with…

  6. Effects of rapid temperature changes on HK, PK and HSP70 of Litopenaeus vannamei in different seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Biao; Wang, Fang; Dong, Shuanglin; Hou, Chunqiang

    2010-09-01

    Activities of hexokinase (HK), pyruvate kinase (PK) and levels of HSP70 were measured to evaluate the response of Litopenaeus vannamei to rapid temperature changes under controlled laboratory conditions. Shrimps were subjected to a quick temperature change from 27°C to 17°C for the summer case (Cold temperature treatment), or from 17°C to 27°C for the winter case (Warm temperature treatment). After 0.5, 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h of exposure time, shrimps were sampled and prepared for further analysis. The results showed that the effect of acute temperature changes on activities of HK was significant. Patterns of variations of the two glycolytic enzymes suggested that enzymes in the glycolysis cycle could adjust their activities to meet the acute temperature change. The HSP70 level increased in both cold and warm temperature treatments, suggesting that the rapid temperature changes activated the process of body’s self-protection. But the difference in expression peak of HSP70 might be related to the different body size and the higher thermal sensitivity to temperature increase than to temperature decrease of L. vannamei.

  7. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Terrie R Wheeler; Kristi L Holmes

    2017-01-01

    Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information...

  8. Molar changes with cervical headgear alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Farret, Marcel Marchiori; Lima, Eduardo Martinelli Santayana de; Araújo, Vanessa Pereira de; Rizzatto, Susana Maria Deon; Menezes, Luciane Macedo de; Grossi, Márcio Lima

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To test the hypothesis that there is no difference in the distal movement of the maxillary first permanent molars when cervical headgear is used alone or in combination with rapid maxillary expansion. Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 36 subjects (aged 9 to 13 years), treated in the Faculty of Dentistry, Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The individuals were in good health and in their pubertal growth period. All had Class II division 1 ma...

  9. Rapid change in the defense of flightless young by a mourning dove parent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdeen, James; Otis, D.L.

    2011-01-01

    We report that an adult-sized Zenaida macroura (Mourning Dove), presumably a parent, rapidly decreased risk taken in defense of a juvenile as the likelihood of predation to the juvenile increased. We attribute this decrease in risk taken to (1) the parent's perception that the risk of predation had increased to the extent that a continuation of defensive behaviors would not prevent the death of the juvenile, and (2) its attempt to minimize its own risk of death. It may be that there is a threshold beyond which Mourning Dove parents will forgo the risk of additional defense of offspring in favor of making another reproductive attempt.

  10. Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

  11. RAPID PENUMBRA AND LORENTZ FORCE CHANGES IN AN X1.0 SOLAR FLARE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Zhe; Jiang, Yunchun; Yang, Jiayang; Yang, Bo; Bi, Yi, E-mail: xuzhe6249@ynao.ac.cn [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 110, Kunming 650011 (China)

    2016-03-20

    We present observations of the violent changes in photospheric magnetic structures associated with an X1.1 flare, which occurred in a compact δ-configuration region in the following part of AR 11890 on 2013 November 8. In both central and peripheral penumbra regions of the small δ sunspot, these changes took place abruptly and permanently in the reverse direction during the flare: the inner/outer penumbra darkened/disappeared, where the magnetic fields became more horizontal/vertical. Particularly, the Lorentz force (LF) changes in the central/peripheral region had a downward/upward and inward direction, meaning that the local pressure from the upper atmosphere was enhanced/released. It indicates that the LF changes might be responsible for the penumbra changes. These observations can be well explained as the photospheric response to the coronal field reconstruction within the framework of the magnetic implosion theory and the back reaction model of flares.

  12. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Terrie R; Holmes, Kristi L

    2017-07-01

    Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter's Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small and large changes are critical for successfully transforming library services, resources, and personnel. Libraries are faced with incredible pressure to adapt to meet emerging and intensifying information needs on today's academic medical campuses. These pressures offer an opportunity for libraries to accelerate their evolution at the micro and macro levels. This commentary reports the expansion of new services and areas of support, enhancement of professional visibility of the libraries on their campuses, and overall, a more positive and productive environment at the respective institutions.

  13. Microstructure Formation and Resistivity Change in CuCr during Rapid Solidification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Hauf

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The formation of the surface-near microstructure after a current interruption of CuCr contact materials in a vacuum interrupter is characterized by a fast heating and subsequently rapid solidification process. In the present article, we reveal and analyse the formation of two distinct microstructural regions that result from the heat, which is generated and dissipated during interruption. In the topmost region, local and global texture, as well as the resulting microstructure, indicate that both Cu and Cr were melted during rapid heating and solidification whereas in the region underneath, only Cu was melted and elongated Cu-grains solidified with the <001>-direction perpendicularly aligned to the surface. By analysing the lattice parameter of the Cu solid solution, a supersaturation of the solid solution with about 2.25 at % Cr was found independent if Cu was melted solely or together with the Cr. The according reduction of electrical conductivity in the topmost region subsequent to current interruption and the resulting heat distribution are discussed based on these experimental results.

  14. Television, disordered eating, and young women in Fiji: negotiating body image and identity during rapid social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Anne E

    2004-12-01

    Although the relationship between media exposure and risk behavior among youth is established at a population level, the specific psychological and social mechanisms mediating the adverse effects of media on youth remain poorly understood. This study reports on an investigation of the impact of the introduction of television to a rural community in Western Fiji on adolescent ethnic Fijian girls in a setting of rapid social and economic change. Narrative data were collected from 30 purposively selected ethnic Fijian secondary school girls via semi-structured, open-ended interviews. Interviews were conducted in 1998, 3 years after television was first broadcast to this region of Fiji. Narrative data were analyzed for content relating to response to television and mechanisms that mediate self and body image in Fijian adolescents. Data in this sample suggest that media imagery is used in both creative and destructive ways by adolescent Fijian girls to navigate opportunities and conflicts posed by the rapidly changing social environment. Study respondents indicated their explicit modeling of the perceived positive attributes of characters presented in television dramas, but also the beginnings of weight and body shape preoccupation, purging behavior to control weight, and body disparagement. Response to television appeared to be shaped by a desire for competitive social positioning during a period of rapid social transition. Understanding vulnerability to images and values imported with media will be critical to preventing disordered eating and, potentially, other youth risk behaviors in this population, as well as other populations at risk.

  15. Dancing with Demographers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Heather-Jane

    2000-01-01

    Demographic projections concerning the shortage of teachers in Canada, their pay scale, the feminization of teaching, the gender gap in salaries, and teacher autonomy have often been incorrect, or correct for the wrong reasons. Instead of relying on demographic predictions, teachers should contemplate who they really want to be professionally,…

  16. Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Shaffrey, Len

    2017-03-01

    Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2 ± 13.0 % of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8 ± 13.6 % of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5 ± 17.6 % and 40.9 ± 18.4 % of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor

  17. Rapid land-use change and its impacts on tropical biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurance, William F.

    Rates of forest conversion are extremely high in most tropical regions and these changes are known to have important impacts on biotas and ecosystems. I summarize available information on responses of wildlife and plant communities to habitat fragmentation, selective logging, surface fires, and hunting, which are four of the most widespread types of tropical land-use change. These changes alter forest ecosystems in complex ways and have varying impacts on different animal and plant species. In most human-dominated landscapes, forests are subjected to not one change but to two or more simultaneous alterations, the effects of which can be particularly destructive to tropical biotas. I illustrate this concept by describing the synergistic interactions between habitat fragmentation and surface fires, and between logging, fires, and hunting.

  18. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Terrestrial Intactness and Potential For Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — This map shows current and near-term terrestrial intactness, as well as long term potential for development and climate change. These datasets are the results of a...

  19. Colorado Plateau Rapid Ecoregion Assessment Terrestrial Intactness and Potential For Change (HUC5)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Bureau of Land Management, Department of the Interior — This map shows current and near-term terrestrial intactness, as well as long term potential for development and climate change. These datasets are the results of a...

  20. People On The Move: Some Thoughts On Human Dispersal In Relation To Rapid Climatic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, W.

    It is still generally assumed that the default situation for past humans must have been to be sedentary. That is to say, given a chance people would have settled in one area (with a good supply of resources) and established clearly-defined territories. Such concepts presuppose that much of human existence was conducted in climatic conditions sim- ilar to the relatively stable ones seen in the Holocene. What effects do rapid climatic fluctuations have upon environmental carrying capacity, and thus upon human mobil- ity and exploitation patterns? Such an approach could be called 'non-analogue', as it does not seek to impose [current] Holocene patterns upon the Pleistocene, in the same way that 'non-analogue' animal and plant communities are now routinely described for the same period. If one adopts non-analogue perspectives, perhaps one could also argue that in many cases mobility was the rule and not the exception. Turning the conventional wisdom around, we can ask why people should remain in an area. What are the characteristics of that area which could have encouraged people to become less mobile? I do not argue that all groups were mobile: some cannot have been, and not every member of other groups would have been equally mobile (differentiation on grounds of age and sex). In addition, mobility patterns must also have varied over time, although we should not necessarily expect a discernible linear trend either towards or away from greater mobility, because such behaviour operates within a climatic and environmental framework as well as a socio-economic one. If climate oscillated rapidly, it is feasible to suggest that such fluctuations affected environmental stability and thus carrying capacity. The resource species present and their availability would therefore affect the possibilities for human mobility. When discussing the possibilities for human dispersal into new regions, we essentially have a choice between two competing models: the Wave of Advance (sensu

  1. Evidence from phylogenetic and genome fingerprinting analyses suggests rapidly changing variation in Halorubrum and Haloarcula populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram Mohan, Nikhil; Fullmer, Matthew S.; Makkay, Andrea M.; Wheeler, Ryan; Ventosa, Antonio; Naor, Adit; Gogarten, J. Peter; Papke, R. Thane

    2014-01-01

    Halobacteria require high NaCl concentrations for growth and are the dominant inhabitants of hypersaline environments above 15% NaCl. They are well-documented to be highly recombinogenic, both in frequency and in the range of exchange partners. In this study, we examine the genetic and genomic variation of cultured, naturally co-occurring environmental populations of Halobacteria. Sequence data from multiple loci (~2500 bp) identified many closely and more distantly related strains belonging to the genera Halorubrum and Haloarcula. Genome fingerprinting using a random priming PCR amplification method to analyze these isolates revealed diverse banding patterns across each of the genera and surprisingly even for isolates that are identical at the nucleotide level for five protein coding sequenced loci. This variance in genome structure even between identical multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA) haplotypes indicates that accumulation of genomic variation is rapid: faster than the rate of third codon substitutions. PMID:24782838

  2. Evidence from phylogenetic and genome fingerprinting analyses suggests rapidly changing variation in Halorubrum and Haloarcula populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikhil eRam Mohan

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Halobacteria require high NaCl concentrations for growth and are the dominant inhabitants of hypersaline environments above 15% NaCl. They are well documented to be highly recombinogenic, both in frequency and in the range of exchange partners. In this study, we examine the genetic and genomic variation of cultured, naturally co-occurring environmental populations of Halobacteria. Sequence data from multiple loci (~2500bp identified closely related strains belonging to the genera Halorubrum and Haloarcula. Genome fingerprinting using a random priming PCR amplification method to analyze these isolates revealed diverse banding patterns within and across each of the genera and surprisingly even for isolates that are identical at the nucleotide level for five protein coding sequenced loci. This variance in genome structure even between identical multilocus sequence analysis (MLSA haplotypes suggests that accumulation of variation is rapid, perhaps occurring every generation.

  3. Methodology for benzodiazepine receptor binding assays at physiological temperature. Rapid change in equilibrium with falling temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, R.M.

    1986-12-01

    Benzodiazepine receptors of rat cerebellum were assayed with (/sup 3/H)-labeled flunitrazepam at 37/sup 0/C, and assays were terminated by filtration in a cold room according to one of three protocols: keeping each sample at 37 degrees C until ready for filtration, taking the batch of samples (30) into the cold room and filtering sequentially in the order 1-30, and taking the batch of 30 samples into the cold room and filtering sequentially in the order 30-1. the results for each protocol were substantially different from each other, indicating that rapid disruption of equilibrium occurred as the samples cooled in the cold room while waiting to be filtered. Positive or negative cooperativity of binding was apparent, and misleading effects of gamma-aminobutyric acid on the affinity of diazepam were observed, unless each sample was kept at 37/sup 0/C until just prior to filtration.

  4. Rapid spread of complex change: a case study in inpatient palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipski Marta I

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Based on positive findings from a randomized controlled trial, Kaiser Permanente's national executive leadership group set an expectation that all Kaiser Permanente and partner hospitals would implement a consultative model of interdisciplinary, inpatient-based palliative care (IPC. Within one year, the number of IPC consultations program-wide increased almost tenfold from baseline, and the number of teams nearly doubled. We report here results from a qualitative evaluation of the IPC initiative after a year of implementation; our purpose was to understand factors supporting or impeding the rapid and consistent spread of a complex program. Methods Quality improvement study using a case study design and qualitative analysis of in-depth semi-structured interviews with 36 national, regional, and local leaders. Results Compelling evidence of impacts on patient satisfaction and quality of care generated 'pull' among adopters, expressed as a remarkably high degree of conviction about the value of the model. Broad leadership agreement gave rise to sponsorship and support that permeated the organization. A robust social network promoted knowledge exchange and built on an existing network with a strong interest in palliative care. Resource constraints, pre-existing programs of a different model, and ambiguous accountability for implementation impeded spread. Conclusions A complex, hospital-based, interdisciplinary intervention in a large health care organization spread rapidly due to a synergy between organizational 'push' strategies and grassroots-level pull. The combination of push and pull may be especially important when the organizational context or the practice to be spread is complex.

  5. Multimodal imaging documentation of rapid evolution of retinal changes in handheld laser-induced maculopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhrami-Gavazi, Elona; Lee, Winston; Balaratnasingam, Chandrakumar; Kayserman, Larisa; Yannuzzi, Lawrence A; Freund, K Bailey

    2015-01-01

    To use multimodal imaging to document the relatively rapid clinical evolution of handheld laser-induced maculopathy (HLIM). To demonstrate that inadvertent ocular injury can result from devices mislabeled with respect to their power specifications. The clinical course of a 17-year-old male who sustained self-inflicted, central macular damage from a 20-25 s direct stare at a red-spectrum, handheld laser pointer ordered from an internet retailer is provided. Retrospective review of multimodal imaging that includes fundus photography, fluorescein angiography, MultiColor reflectance, eye-tracked spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT), fundus autofluorescence, and microperimetry is used to describe the evolving clinical manifestations of HLIM in the first 3 months. Curvilinear bands of dense hyperreflectivity extending from the outer retina and following the Henle fibers were seen on SD-OCT immediately after injury. This characteristic appearance had largely resolved by 2 weeks. There was significant non-uniformity in the morphological characteristics of HLIM lesions between autofluorescence and reflectance images. The pattern of lesion evolution was also significantly different between imaging modalities. Analysis of the laser device showed its wavelength to be correctly listed, but the power was found to be 102.5-105 mW, as opposed to the laser -induced maculopathy, this finding can undergo rapid resolution in the span of several days. In the absence of this finding, other multimodal imaging clues and a careful history may aid in recognizing this diagnosis. A greater awareness regarding inaccurate labeling on some of these devices could help reduce the frequency of this preventable entity.

  6. Human adaptation responses to a rapidly changing Arctic: A research context for building system resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapin, T.; Brinkman, T. J.

    2016-12-01

    Although human behavior accounts for more uncertainty in future trajectories in climate change than do biophysical processes, most climate-change research fails to include human actions in research design and implementation. This is well-illustrated in the Arctic. At the global scale, arctic processes strongly influence the strength of biophysical feedbacks between global human emissions and the rate of climate warming. However, most human actions in the arctic have little effect on these feedbacks, so research can contribute most effectively to reduction in arctic warming through improved understanding of the strength of arctic-global biophysical feedbacks, as in NASA's ABoVE program, and its effective communication to policy makers and the public. In contrast, at the local to regional scale within the arctic, human actions may influence the ecological and societal consequences of arctic warming, so research benefits from active stakeholder engagement in research design and implementation. Human communities and other stakeholders (government and NGOs) respond heterogeneously to socioeconomic and environmental change, so research that documents the range of historical and current adaptive responses to change provides insights on the resilience (flexibility of future options) of social-ecological processes in the arctic. Alaskan communities have attempted a range of adaptive responses to coastal erosion (e.g., seasonal migration, protection in place, relocation), wildfire (fire suppression to use of fire to manage wildlife habitat or landscape heterogeneity), declining sea ice (e.g., new hunting technology, sea ice observations and predictions), and changes in wildlife and fish availability (e.g., switch to harvest of alternative species, harvest times, or harvest locations). Research that draws on both traditional and western knowledge facilitates adaptation and predictions of the likely societal consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Effective inclusion of

  7. Rapid transformation of two libraries using Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Terrie R.; Holmes, Kristi L.

    2017-01-01

    Background Two new directors were each charged by their institutions to catalyze transformational change in their libraries and to develop dynamic and evolving information ecosystems ready for the information challenges of the future. The directors approached this transformational change using a strategic, forward-looking approach. Results This paper presents examples of actions that served as catalysts for change at the two libraries using Kotter’s Eight Steps of Change as a framework. Small and large changes are critical for successfully transforming library services, resources, and personnel. Conclusions Libraries are faced with incredible pressure to adapt to meet emerging and intensifying information needs on today’s academic medical campuses. These pressures offer an opportunity for libraries to accelerate their evolution at the micro and macro levels. This commentary reports the expansion of new services and areas of support, enhancement of professional visibility of the libraries on their campuses, and overall, a more positive and productive environment at the respective institutions. PMID:28670217

  8. Implications of rapid environmental change for polar bear behavior and sociality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwood, Todd C.

    2017-01-01

    Historically, the Arctic sea ice has functioned as a structural barrier that has limited the nature and extent of interactions between humans and polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, declining sea ice extent, brought about by global climate change, is increasing the potential for human-polar bear interactions. Loss of sea ice habitat is driving changes to both human and polar bear behavior—it is facilitating increases in human activities (e.g., offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction, trans-Arctic shipping, recreation), while also causing the displacement of bears from preferred foraging habitat (i.e., sea ice over biologically productive shallow) to land in some portions of their range. The end result of these changes is that polar bears are spending greater amounts of time in close proximity to people. Coexistence between humans and polar bears will require imposing mechanisms to manage further development, as well as mitigation strategies that reduce the burden to local communities.

  9. Unbounded boundaries and shifting baselines: Estuaries and coastal seas in a rapidly changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, S.; Spencer, K. L.; Schuttelaars, H. M.; Millward, G. E.; Elliott, M.

    2017-11-01

    This Special Issue of Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science presents contributions from ECSA 55; an international symposium organised by the Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association (ECSA) and Elsevier on the broad theme of estuaries and coastal seas in times of intense change. The objectives of the SI are to synthesise, hypothesise and illustrate the impacts of global change on estuaries and coastal seas through learning lessons from the past, discussing the current and forecasting for the future. It is highlighted here that establishing impacts and assigning cause to the many pressures of global change is and will continue to be a formidable challenge in estuaries and coastal seas, due in part to: (1) their complexity and unbounded nature; (2) difficulties distinguishing between human-induced changes and natural variations and; (3) multiple pressures and effects. The contributing authors have explored a number of these issues over a range of disciplines. The complexity and connectivity of estuaries and coastal seas have been investigated through studies of physicochemical and ecological components, whilst the human imprint on the environment has been identified through a series of predictive, contemporary, historical and palaeo approaches. The impact of human activities has been shown to occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales, requiring the development of integrated management approaches. These 30 articles provide an important contribution to our understanding and assessment of the impacts of global change. The authors highlight methods for essential management/mitigation of the consequences of global change and provide a set of directions, ideas and observations for future work. These include the need to consider: (1) the cumulative, synergistic and antagonistic effects of multiple pressures; (2) the importance of unbounded boundaries and connectivity across the aquatic continuum; (3) the value of combining cross-disciplinary palaeo, contemporary and

  10. A rapid change in the low energy cut-off of Scorpius X-1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, W. E.; Cordova, F.; Garmire, G. P.

    1974-01-01

    Sco X-1 was observed on June 10, 1972 near 04 hr 33 min U.T. simultaneously in the optical (B) the soft X-ray (0.1 to 2.4 keV) and the X-ray (1.5 to 20 keV) bands of the spectrum. It is believed that a change of short duration in the absorbing medium associated with Sco X-1 was observed. The medium attenuating the low energy X-ray flux from Sco X-1 has apparently changed by more than 40% on a time scale of less than 45 sec.

  11. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, Frans

    The demographic transition is a universal phenomenon. All regions of the world experience a change from high levels of mortality and fertility to low levels. The onset and pace of the demographic transition vary between regions and countries because of differences in timing of events and conditions

  12. Demographic transitions in Europe and the world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willekens, F.J.; Matthijs, K.; Neels, K.; Timmerman, C.; Haers, J.; Mels, S.

    2016-01-01

    Willekens, F. (2015) Demographic transitions in Europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman. J. Haers and S. Mels eds. Population change at work in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide. Ashgate (International Population Studies Series) pp. 13-44.

  13. Rapid change of atmosphere on the Hadean Earth: Beyond Habitable Trinity on a tightrope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arai, T.; Maruyama, S.

    2014-12-01

    Surface environment of Hadean Earth is a key to bear life on the Earth. All of previous works assumed that high pCO2 has been decreased to a few bars in the first a few hundreds millions of years (e.g., Zhanle et al., 2011). However, this process is not easy because of material and process barriers as shown below. Four barriers are present. First, the ultra-acidic pH (<0.1) of 4.4Ga ocean prevented the precipitation of carbonates at mid-oceanic ridge through water-rock interaction after the birth of primordial ocean driven by plate tectonics or pseudo-plate tectonics system. To overcome this barrier, primordial (anorthosite + KREEP) continents must have been above sea-level to increase pH rapidly through hydrological process. Second, major cap rocks on the Hadean oceanic crust must have been komatiite with minor basaltic rocks to precipitate carbonates through water-rock interaction and transport them into mantle through subduction at higher than the intermediate P/T geotherm on the Benioff plane. If not, carbonate minerals are all decarbonated at shallower depths than the Moho plane. Komatiite production depends on mantle potential temperature which must have been rapidly decreased to yield only Fe-enriched MORB by 3.8Ga. Third, the primordial continents composed of anorthosite with subordinate amounts of KREEP basalts must have been annihilated by 4.0Ga to alter pH to be possible to precipitate carbonates by hydrothermal process. The value of pCO2 must have been decreased down to a few bars from c.a. 50 bars at TSI (total surface irradiance) = 75% under the restricted time limit. If failed, the Earth must have been Venus state which is impossible to bear life on the planet. Fourth is the role of tectonic erosion to destroy and transport the primordial continent of anorthosite into deep mantle by subduction. Anorthosite + KREEP was the mother's milk grow life on the Earth, but disappeared by 4.0Ga or even earlier, but alternatively granites were formed and

  14. Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lustenhouwer, N.; Wilschut, R.A.; Williams, J.L.; van der Putten, W.H.; Levine, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may

  15. Rapid species responses to changes in climate require stringent climate protection targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van A.J.H.; Leemans, R.

    2006-01-01

    The Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change book consolidates the scientific findings of the Exeter conference and gives an account of the most recent developments on critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, emission pathways and

  16. Extended Services in Schools: Developing Resources to Prepare Student Teachers for a Rapidly Changing Working Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Sue; Smith, Andy

    2011-01-01

    The role of schools in providing extended services to their communities continues to undergo change and development. This has raised issues regarding the training of student teachers who are increasingly likely to take up appointments in schools offering extended services. This research project investigated the development of resources to prepare…

  17. A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien

    2016-01-01

    to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies...

  18. Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

    2011-01-01

    Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals’ responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work. PMID:25567979

  19. Challenge and Response, Strategies for Survival in a Rapidly Changing Forest Products Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Schuler; Craig Adair; Paul Winistorfer

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. has long been the world's largest market for wood and wood products, fueled by its demand for wood-frame housing. But forest product markets are changing, both in terns of where the products originate (domestically or abroad),and what products are being produced and consumed.

  20. Role of Western Hemisphere Warm Pool in Rapid Climate Changes over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il

    2017-04-01

    Oceanic states over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is surrounded by heavily populated countries, are closely tied to the lives of the people in East Asia in regards to both climate and socioeconomics. As global warming continues, remarkable increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) have been observed in the WNP in recent decades. Here, we show that the SST increase in the western hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), which is the second largest warm pool on the globe, has contributed considerably to the rapid surface warming and sea level rise in the WNP via its remote teleconnection along the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). State-of-the-art climate models strongly support the role of the WHWP not only on interannual time sales but also in long-term climate projections. We expect that understanding the processes initiated by the WHWP-SST could permit better forecasts of western North Pacific climate and the further development of the socioeconomics of East Asia.

  1. Rapid characterisation of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a global biodiversity hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Identification of refugia is an increasingly important adaptation strategy in conservation planning under rapid anthropogenic climate change. Granite outcrops (GOs provide extraordinary diversity, including a wide range of taxa, vegetation types and habitats in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR. However, poor characterization of GOs limits the capacity of conservation planning for refugia under climate change. A novel means for the rapid identification of potential refugia is presented, based on the assessment of local-scale environment and vegetation structure in a wider region. This approach was tested on GOs across the SWAFR. Airborne discrete return Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR data and Red Green and Blue (RGB imagery were acquired. Vertical vegetation profiles were used to derive 54 structural classes. Structural vegetation types were described in three areas for supervised classification of a further 13 GOs across the region. Habitat descriptions based on 494 vegetation plots on and around these GOs were used to quantify relationships between environmental variables, ground cover and canopy height. The vegetation surrounding GOs is strongly related to structural vegetation types (Kappa = 0.8 and to its spatial context. Water gaining sites around GOs are characterized by taller and denser vegetation in all areas. The strong relationship between rainfall, soil-depth, and vegetation structure (R(2 of 0.8-0.9 allowed comparisons of vegetation structure between current and future climate. Significant shifts in vegetation structural types were predicted and mapped for future climates. Water gaining areas below granite outcrops were identified as important putative refugia. A reduction in rainfall may be offset by the occurrence of deeper soil elsewhere on the outcrop. However, climate change interactions with fire and water table declines may render our conclusions conservative. The LiDAR-based mapping approach presented

  2. Rapid geochemical changes at Mawrth Vallis as observed through the mineralogical record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    The thick and widespread phyllosilicate outcrops observed in the Mawrth Vallis region indicate that abundant water was present here during the Noachian period. Factors shaping the formation and alteration of the observed phyllosilicates include aqueous processes, chemistry, and perhaps biology. The expansive phyllosilicate outcrops at Mawrth Vallis exhibit a consistent general trend of Al-phyllosilicates and amorphous Al/Si species at the top of the clay profile and Fe/Mg-phyllosilicates on the bottom. This implies either a change in water chemistry, a change in material being altered, or an alteration profile where the upper clays were leached and altered more significantly than those below. Localized variations in Al/Si-rich species [1,2] indicate pockets of acidic and neutral environments, likely formed through changes in the geochemical environment over a geologically short time period at the end of the Noachian. A change in iron in the phyllosilicate units is also observed such that an Fe2+-bearing unit is frequently observed between the Fe3+- and Mg-rich phyllosilicates below and the Al/Si-rich materials above [2]. Changes in oxidation state are often indicative of biogeochemical activity on Earth. CRISM spectra are shown in Figure 1 across a transect from an Al/Si-rich region to an Fe2+-bearing region to an Fe3+/Mg-phyllosilicate region. Phyllosilicate-bearing rocks may have been an ideal place on Mars for pre-biotic chemistry and possibly the development of life as well. Phyllosilicates, especially smectites, can serve as reaction surfaces that bind molecules and catalyze chemical reactions. Experiments have shown excellent survival of microbes in clay environments under extreme Mars-like temperature and humidity conditions. If microbes were present on Mars, the ancient Fe-smectite-bearing rocks could have been a favorable environment for them to evolve and possibly thrive. The Mawrth Vallis phyllosilicate outcrops are colored by changes in phyllosilicate

  3. Cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of dental, skeletal, and alveolar bone changes associated with bonded rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Namrata Dogra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To evaluate skeletal changes in maxilla and its surrounding structures, changes in the maxillary dentition and maxillary alveolar bone changes produced by bonded rapid maxillary expansion (RME using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 10 patients (6 males and 4 females with age range 12 to 15 years treated with bonded RME. CBCT scans were performed at T1 (pretreatment and at T2 (immediately after expansion to evaluate the dental, skeletal, and alveolar bone changes. Results: RME treatment increased the overall skeletal parameters such as interorbital, zygomatic, nasal, and maxillary widths. Significant increases in buccal maxillary width was observed at first premolar, second premolar, and first molar level. There was a significant increase in arch width both on the palatal side and on the buccal side. Significant tipping of right and left maxillary first molars was seen. There were significant reductions in buccal bone plate thickness and increase in palatal bone plate thickness. Conclusions: Total expansion achieved with RME was a combination of dental, skeletal and alveolar bone changes. At the first molar level, 28.45% orthopedic, 16.03% alveolar bone bending, and 55.5% orthodontic changes were observed.

  4. Rapid language-related plasticity: microstructural changes in the cortex after a short session of new word learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofstetter, Shir; Friedmann, Naama; Assaf, Yaniv

    2017-04-01

    Human brain imaging revealed that the brain can undergo structural plasticity following new learning experiences. Most magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) uncovered morphometric alternation in cortical density after the long-term training of weeks to months. A recent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) study has found changes in diffusion indices after 2 h of training, primarily in the hippocampus. However, whether a short learning experience can induce microstructural changes in the neocortex is still unclear. Here, we used diffusion MRI, a method sensitive to tissue microstructure, to study cortical plasticity. To attain cortical involvement, we used a short language task (under 1 h) of introducing new lexical items (flower names) to the lexicon. We have found significant changes in diffusivity in cortical regions involved in language and reading (inferior frontal gyrus, middle temporal gyrus, and inferior parietal lobule). In addition, the difference in the values of diffusivity correlated with the lexical learning rate in the task. Moreover, significant changes were found in white matter tracts near the cortex, and the extent of change correlated with behavioral measures of lexical learning rate. These findings provide first evidence of short-term cortical plasticity in the human brain after a short language learning task. It seems that short training of less than an hour of high cognitive demand can induce microstructural changes in the cortex, suggesting a rapid time scale of neuroplasticity and providing additional evidence of the power of MRI to investigate the temporal and spatial progressions of this process.

  5. Object-based change detection in rapid urbanization regions with remotely sensed observations: a case study of Shenzhen, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Lihuang; Dong, Guihua; Wang, Wei-Min; Yang, Lijun; Liang, Hong

    2013-10-01

    China, the most populous country on Earth, has experienced rapid urbanization which is one of the main causes of many environmental and ecological problems. Therefore, the monitoring of rapid urbanization regions and the environment is of critical importance for their sustainable development. In this study, the object-based classification is employed to detect the change of land cover in Shenzhen, which is located in South China and has been urbanized rapidly in recent three decades. First, four Landsat TM images, which were acquired on 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively, are selected from the image database. Atmospheric corrections are conducted on these images with improved dark-object subtraction technique and surface meteorological observations. Geometric correction is processed with ground control points derived from topographic maps. Second, a region growing multi-resolution segmentation and a soft nearest neighbour classifier are used to finish object-based classification. After analyzing the fraction of difference classes over time series, we conclude that the comparison of derived land cover classes with socio-economic statistics demonstrates the strong positive correlation between built-up classes and urban population as well as gross GDP and GDPs in second and tertiary industries. Two different mechanisms of urbanization, namely new land development and redevelopment, are revealed. Consequently, we found that, the districts of Shenzhen were urbanized through different mechanisms.

  6. Rapid changes in corticospinal excitability during force field adaptation of human walking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthélemy, Dorothy; Alain, S; Grey, Michael James

    2012-01-01

    Force field adaptation of locomotor muscle activity is one way of studying the ability of the motor control networks in the brain and spinal cord to adapt in a flexible way to changes in the environment. Here, we investigate whether the corticospinal tract is involved in this adaptation. We...... measured changes in motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) elicited by transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in the tibialis anterior (TA) muscle before, during, and after subjects adapted to a force field applied to the ankle joint during treadmill walking. When the force field assisted dorsiflexion during...... the swing phase of the step cycle, subjects adapted by decreasing TA EMG activity. In contrast, when the force field resisted dorsiflexion, they increased TA EMG activity. After the force field was removed, normal EMG activity gradually returned over the next 5 min of walking. TA MEPs elicited in the early...

  7. Rapid behavioural gregarization in the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria entails synchronous changes in both activity and attraction to conspecifics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Stephen M; Cullen, Darron A; Anstey, Michael L; Burrows, Malcolm; Despland, Emma; Dodgson, Tim; Matheson, Tom; Ott, Swidbert R; Stettin, Katja; Sword, Gregory A; Simpson, Stephen J

    2014-06-01

    Desert Locusts can change reversibly between solitarious and gregarious phases, which differ considerably in behaviour, morphology and physiology. The two phases show many behavioural differences including both overall levels of activity and the degree to which they are attracted or repulsed by conspecifics. Solitarious locusts perform infrequent bouts of locomotion characterised by a slow walking pace, groom infrequently and actively avoid other locusts. Gregarious locusts are highly active with a rapid walking pace, groom frequently and are attracted to conspecifics forming cohesive migratory bands as nymphs and/or flying swarms as adults. The sole factor driving the onset of gregarization is the presence of conspecifics. In several previous studies concerned with the mechanism underlying this transformation we have used an aggregate measure of behavioural phase state, Pgreg, derived from logistic regression analysis, which combines and weights several behavioural variables to characterise solitarious and gregarious behaviour. Using this approach we have analysed the time course of behavioural change, the stimuli that induce gregarization and the key role of serotonin in mediating the transformation. Following a recent critique that suggested that using Pgreg may confound changes in general activity with genuine gregarization we have performed a meta-analysis examining the time course of change in the individual behaviours that we use to generate Pgreg. We show that the forced crowding of solitarious locusts, tactile stimulation of the hind femora, and the short-term application of serotonin each induce concerted changes in not only locomotion-related variables but also grooming frequency and attraction to other locusts towards those characteristic of long-term gregarious locusts. This extensive meta-analysis supports and extends our previous conclusions that solitarious locusts undergo a rapid behavioural gregarization upon receiving appropriate stimulation for

  8. Rapid behavioural gregarization in the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria entails synchronous changes in both activity and attraction to conspecifics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Stephen M.; Cullen, Darron A.; Anstey, Michael L.; Burrows, Malcolm; Despland, Emma; Dodgson, Tim; Matheson, Tom; Ott, Swidbert R.; Stettin, Katja; Sword, Gregory A.; Simpson, Stephen J.

    2014-01-01

    Desert Locusts can change reversibly between solitarious and gregarious phases, which differ considerably in behaviour, morphology and physiology. The two phases show many behavioural differences including both overall levels of activity and the degree to which they are attracted or repulsed by conspecifics. Solitarious locusts perform infrequent bouts of locomotion characterised by a slow walking pace, groom infrequently and actively avoid other locusts. Gregarious locusts are highly active with a rapid walking pace, groom frequently and are attracted to conspecifics forming cohesive migratory bands as nymphs and/or flying swarms as adults. The sole factor driving the onset of gregarization is the presence of conspecifics. In several previous studies concerned with the mechanism underlying this transformation we have used an aggregate measure of behavioural phase state, Pgreg, derived from logistic regression analysis, which combines and weights several behavioural variables to characterise solitarious and gregarious behaviour. Using this approach we have analysed the time course of behavioural change, the stimuli that induce gregarization and the key role of serotonin in mediating the transformation. Following a recent critique that suggested that using Pgreg may confound changes in general activity with genuine gregarization we have performed a meta-analysis examining the time course of change in the individual behaviours that we use to generate Pgreg. We show that the forced crowding of solitarious locusts, tactile stimulation of the hind femora, and the short-term application of serotonin each induce concerted changes in not only locomotion-related variables but also grooming frequency and attraction to other locusts towards those characteristic of long-term gregarious locusts. This extensive meta-analysis supports and extends our previous conclusions that solitarious locusts undergo a rapid behavioural gregarization upon receiving appropriate stimulation for

  9. Rapid change of multiplicity fluctuations in system size dependence at SPS energies arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Recent preliminary results on multiplicity fluctuations in p+p, Be+Be and Ar+Sc collisions from the NA61/SHINE collaboration are presented. The scaled variance of charged hadron multiplicity changes little when going from p+p to Be+Be collisions and drops dramatically from Be+Be to Ar+Sc interactions. The centrality selection procedure and the influence of volume fluctuations are discussed. Comparisons with the EPOS event generator are shown.

  10. Next Generation of Renewable Electricity Policy: How Rapid Change is Breaking Down Conventional Policy Categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couture, T. D. [E3 Analytics, Berlin (Germany); Jacobs, D. [International Energy Transition (IET), Boston, MA (United States); Rickerson, W. [Meister Consultants Group, Boston, MA (United States); Healey, V. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A number of policies have been used historically in order to stimulate the growth of the renewable electricity sector. This paper examines four of these policy instruments: competitive tendering, sometimes called renewable electricity auctions, feed-in tariffs, net metering and net billing, and tradable renewable energy certificates. In recent years, however, a number of changes to both market circumstances and to policy priorities have resulted in numerous policy innovations, including the emergence of policy hybrids. With no common language for these evolving policy mechanisms, policymakers have generally continued to use the same traditional policy labels, occasionally generating confusion as many of these new policies no longer look, or act, like their traditional predecessors. In reviewing these changes, this paper makes two separate but related claims: first, policy labels themselves are breaking down and evolving. As a result, policy comparisons that rely on the conventional labels may no longer be appropriate, or advisable. Second, as policymakers continue to adapt, we are in effect witnessing the emergence of the next generation of renewable electricity policies, a change that could have significant impacts on investment, as well as on market growth in both developed and developing countries.

  11. Experimental studies of instantaneous color constancy: dynamic color matching under rapid changes of illuminant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbur, John L.; de Cunha, Darryl; Williams, Cristyn B.; Plant, Gordon

    2002-06-01

    We have extended the experiments of McCann et al., (1976) by incorporating the Mondrian stimulus into a dynamic colour matching (DCM) technique that allows the subject to match accurately the colour of any test patch under sequential changes of illuminant. We have also studied how scattered light affects the measured instantaneous colour constancy (ICC) index. The results show that correction for forward light scatter in the eye can increase significantly the measured ICC index. The changes in the perceived colour of a central test stimulus as a result of surround illuminant changes was investigated in a number of successful binocular and dichoptic experiments. The contribution made by distant patches to ICC was found to be small with the immediate surround (i.e., less than 2 degree(s) separation) contributing over 50% of the constancy effect. A number of subjects with partial loss of ability to see and discriminate colours caused by damage to ventromedial pre-striate visual cortex were also investigated. In order to establish the site of ICC mechanisms, the dynamic colour matching technique was modified to make it suitable for studies in patients with unilateral damage to the primary visual cortex.

  12. Somatosensory Space Abridged: Rapid Change in Tactile Localization Using a Motion Stimulus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seizova-Cajic, Tatjana; Taylor, Janet L.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Organization of tactile input into somatotopic maps enables us to localize stimuli on the skin. Temporal relationships between stimuli are important in maintaining the maps and influence perceived locations of discrete stimuli. This points to the spatiotemporal stimulation sequences experienced as motion as a potential powerful organizing principle for spatial maps. We ask whether continuity of the motion determines perceived location of areas in the motion path using a novel tactile stimulus designed to ‘convince’ the brain that a patch of skin does not exist by rapidly skipping over it. Method Two brushes, fixed 9 cm apart, moved back and forth along the forearm (at 14.5 cm s−1), crossing a 10-cm long ‘occluder’, which prevented skin stimulation in the middle of the motion path. Crucially, only one brush contacted the skin at any one time, and the occluder was traversed almost instantaneously. Participants pointed with the other arm towards the felt location of the brush when it was briefly halted during repetitive motion, and also reported where they felt they had been brushed. Results Participants did not report the 10-cm gap in stimulation – the motion path was perceptually completed. Pointing results showed that brush path was ‘abridged’: locations immediately on either side of the occluder, as well as location at the ends of the brush path, were perceived to be >3 cm closer to each other than in the control condition (F(1,9) = 7.19; p = .025 and F(1,9) = 6.02, p = .037 respectively). This bias increased with prolonged stimulation. Conclusions An illusion of completion induced by our Abridging stimulus is accompanied by gross mislocalization, suggesting that motion determines perceived locations. The effect reveals the operation of Gestalt principles in touch and suggests the existence of dynamic maps that quickly adjust to the current input pattern. PMID:24603595

  13. Pleistocene climate change promoted rapid diversification of aquatic invertebrates in Southeast Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hawlitschek Oliver

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Pleistocene Ice Ages were the most recent geohistorical event of major global impact, but their consequences for most parts of the Southern hemisphere remain poorly known. We investigate a radiation of ten species of Sternopriscus, the most species-rich genus of epigean Australian diving beetles. These species are distinct based on genital morphology but cannot be distinguished readily by mtDNA and nDNA because of genotype sharing caused by incomplete lineage sorting. Their genetic similarity suggests a Pleistocene origin. Results We use a dataset of 3858 bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA to reconstruct a phylogeny of Sternopriscus using gene and species trees. Diversification analyses support the finding of a recent rapid speciation event with estimated speciation rates of up to 2.40 species per MY, which is considerably higher than the proposed average rate of 0.16 species per MY for insects. Additionally, we use ecological niche modeling and analyze data on habitat preferences to test for niche divergence between species of the recent Sternopriscus radiation. These analyses show that the species can be characterized by a set of ecological variables referring to habitat, climate and altitude. Conclusions Our results suggest that the repeated isolation of populations in glacial refugia might have led to divergent ecological adaptations and the fixation of morphological traits supporting reproductive isolation and therefore may have promoted speciation. The recent Sternopriscus radiation fulfills many characteristics of a species flock and would be the first described example of an aquatic insect species flock. We argue that the species of this group may represent a stage in speciation past the species flock condition because of their mostly broad and often non-overlapping ranges and preferences for different habitat types.

  14. Pleistocene climate change promoted rapid diversification of aquatic invertebrates in Southeast Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawlitschek, Oliver; Hendrich, Lars; Espeland, Marianne; Toussaint, Emmanuel F A; Genner, Martin J; Balke, Michael

    2012-08-09

    The Pleistocene Ice Ages were the most recent geohistorical event of major global impact, but their consequences for most parts of the Southern hemisphere remain poorly known. We investigate a radiation of ten species of Sternopriscus, the most species-rich genus of epigean Australian diving beetles. These species are distinct based on genital morphology but cannot be distinguished readily by mtDNA and nDNA because of genotype sharing caused by incomplete lineage sorting. Their genetic similarity suggests a Pleistocene origin. We use a dataset of 3858 bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA to reconstruct a phylogeny of Sternopriscus using gene and species trees. Diversification analyses support the finding of a recent rapid speciation event with estimated speciation rates of up to 2.40 species per MY, which is considerably higher than the proposed average rate of 0.16 species per MY for insects. Additionally, we use ecological niche modeling and analyze data on habitat preferences to test for niche divergence between species of the recent Sternopriscus radiation. These analyses show that the species can be characterized by a set of ecological variables referring to habitat, climate and altitude. Our results suggest that the repeated isolation of populations in glacial refugia might have led to divergent ecological adaptations and the fixation of morphological traits supporting reproductive isolation and therefore may have promoted speciation. The recent Sternopriscus radiation fulfills many characteristics of a species flock and would be the first described example of an aquatic insect species flock. We argue that the species of this group may represent a stage in speciation past the species flock condition because of their mostly broad and often non-overlapping ranges and preferences for different habitat types.

  15. Changes in pharyngeal aerobic microflora in oral breathers after palatal rapid expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ripa Antonio

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study was to investigate in oral breathing children the qualitative and quantitative effects on aerobic and facultatively anaerobic oropharyngeal microflora of respiratory function improved by rapid palatal expansion (RPE. Methods In an open clinical trial, we studied 50 oral breathers, aged 8 to 14 years and suffering from both maxillary constriction and posterior cross-bite. At baseline, patients were examined by a single otorhinolaryngologist (ENT, confirming nasal obstruction in all subjects by posterior rhino-manometric test. Patients were evaluated three times by oropharyngeal swabs:1 at baseline (T = 0; 2 after palatal spreading out (T = 1; and 3 at the end of RPE treatment (T = 2. With regard to the microbiological aspect, the most common and potentially pathogenic oral microrganisms (i.e. Streptococcus pyogenes, Diplococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, Haemophilus spp, Branhamella catarrhalis, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Candida albicans were specifically detected in proper culture plates, isolated colonies were identified by means of biochemical tests and counted by calibrated loop. The data were analyzed by means of the following tests: Chi-square test, Fisher's exact test and Wilcoxon's test. Results After the use of RME there was a statistically significant decrease of Staphylococcus aureus stock at CFU/mLat T1(P = 0.0005; Z = -3,455 by Wilcoxon Rank test and T2 (P Conclusion Our data suggest that RPE therapy in oral breathers may strongly reduce the pathogenic aerobic and facultatively anaerobic microflora in the oral pharynx after a normalization of the upper airways function, and may reduce the risk of respiratory infections.

  16. Laboratory Demographics Lookup Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This website provides demographic information about laboratories, including CLIA number, facility name and address, where the laboratory testing is performed, the...

  17. Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

    2017-03-01

    Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. High Resolution Topography of Age-Related Changes in Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Electroencephalography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprecher, Kate E.; Riedner, Brady A.; Smith, Richard F.; Tononi, Giulio; Davidson, Richard J.; Benca, Ruth M.

    2016-01-01

    Sleeping brain activity reflects brain anatomy and physiology. The aim of this study was to use high density (256 channel) electroencephalography (EEG) during sleep to characterize topographic changes in sleep EEG power across normal aging, with high spatial resolution. Sleep was evaluated in 92 healthy adults aged 18–65 years old using full polysomnography and high density EEG. After artifact removal, spectral power density was calculated for standard frequency bands for all channels, averaged across the NREM periods of the first 3 sleep cycles. To quantify topographic changes with age, maps were generated of the Pearson’s coefficient of the correlation between power and age at each electrode. Significant correlations were determined by statistical non-parametric mapping. Absolute slow wave power declined significantly with increasing age across the entire scalp, whereas declines in theta and sigma power were significant only in frontal regions. Power in fast spindle frequencies declined significantly with increasing age frontally, whereas absolute power of slow spindle frequencies showed no significant change with age. When EEG power was normalized across the scalp, a left centro-parietal region showed significantly less age-related decline in power than the rest of the scalp. This partial preservation was particularly significant in the slow wave and sigma bands. The effect of age on sleep EEG varies substantially by region and frequency band. This non-uniformity should inform the design of future investigations of aging and sleep. This study provides normative data on the effect of age on sleep EEG topography, and provides a basis from which to explore the mechanisms of normal aging as well as neurodegenerative disorders for which age is a risk factor. PMID:26901503

  19. Rapidly increasing collimation and magnetic field changes of a protostellar H2O maser outflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surcis, G.; Vlemmings, W. H. T.; van Langevelde, H. J.; Goddi, C.; Torrelles, J. M.; Cantó, J.; Curiel, S.; Kim, S.-W.; Kim, J.-S.

    2014-05-01

    Context. W75N(B) is a massive star-forming region that contains three radio continuum sources (VLA 1, VLA 2, and VLA 3), which are thought to be three massive young stellar objects at three different evolutionary stages. VLA 1 is the most evolved and VLA 2 the least evolved source. The 22 GHz H2O masers associated with VLA 1 and VLA 2 have been mapped at several epochs over eight years. While the H2O masers in VLA 1 show a persistent linear distribution along a radio jet, those in VLA 2 are distributed around an expanding shell. Furthermore, H2O maser polarimetric measurements revealed magnetic fields aligned with the two structures. Aims: Using new polarimetric observations of H2O masers, we aim to confirm the elliptical expansion of the shell-like structure around VLA 2 and, at the same time, to determine if the magnetic fields around the two sources have changed. Methods: The NRAO Very Long Baseline Array was used to measure the linear polarization and the Zeeman-splitting of the 22 GHz H2O masers towards the massive star-forming region W75N(B). Results: The H2O maser distribution around VLA 1 is unchanged from that previously observed. We made an elliptical fit of the H2O masers around VLA 2. We find that the shell-like structure is still expanding along the direction parallel to the thermal radio jet of VLA 1. While the magnetic field around VLA 1 has not changed in the past ~7 years, the magnetic field around VLA 2 has changed its orientation according to the new direction of the major-axis of the shell-like structure and it is now aligned with the magnetic field in VLA 1. Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  20. Rapid microbiome changes in freshly deposited cow feces under field conditions

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    Kelvin eWong

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Although development of next generation sequencing (NGS has substantially improved our understanding of the microbial ecology of animal feces, previous studies have mostly focused on freshly excreted feces. There is still limited understanding of the aging process dynamics of fecal microbiomes in intact cowpats exposed to natural environments. Fresh cowpats were sampled at multiple time points for 57 days under field conditions; half the samples were exposed to sunlight (unshaded while the other half was protected from sunlight (shaded. The 16SRNA hypervariable region 4 was amplified from each sample and sequenced on an Illumina MiSeq Platform. While Clostridia, Bacteroidia and Sphingobacteria were dominant classes of bacteria in fresh cowpats, Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Bacilli were the dominant classes by the end of the study, indicating a general shift from anaerobic to aerobic bacterial populations. This change was most likely influenced by the shift from cattle gut (anaerobic to pasture ground (aerobic. Reduced moisture in cowpats may also contribute to the community shift since air can penetrate the dryer cowpat more easily. Twelve genera consisting pathogenic bacteria were detected, with Mycobacterium, Bacillus, and Clostridium being the most abundant; their combined abundance accounts for 90% of the total pathogenic genera. Taxonomic richness and diversity increased throughout the study for most samples, which could be due to bacteria regrowth and colonization of bacteria from the environment. In contrast to the high taxonomic diversity, the changes of PICRUSt inferred function profile were minimal for all cowpats throughout the study, which suggest that core functions predicted by PICRUSt may be too conserved to distinguish differences between aerobe and anaerobe. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating that cowpat exposure to air and sunlight can cause drastic microbiome

  1. High Resolution Topography of Age-Related Changes in Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Electroencephalography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprecher, Kate E; Riedner, Brady A; Smith, Richard F; Tononi, Giulio; Davidson, Richard J; Benca, Ruth M

    2016-01-01

    Sleeping brain activity reflects brain anatomy and physiology. The aim of this study was to use high density (256 channel) electroencephalography (EEG) during sleep to characterize topographic changes in sleep EEG power across normal aging, with high spatial resolution. Sleep was evaluated in 92 healthy adults aged 18-65 years old using full polysomnography and high density EEG. After artifact removal, spectral power density was calculated for standard frequency bands for all channels, averaged across the NREM periods of the first 3 sleep cycles. To quantify topographic changes with age, maps were generated of the Pearson's coefficient of the correlation between power and age at each electrode. Significant correlations were determined by statistical non-parametric mapping. Absolute slow wave power declined significantly with increasing age across the entire scalp, whereas declines in theta and sigma power were significant only in frontal regions. Power in fast spindle frequencies declined significantly with increasing age frontally, whereas absolute power of slow spindle frequencies showed no significant change with age. When EEG power was normalized across the scalp, a left centro-parietal region showed significantly less age-related decline in power than the rest of the scalp. This partial preservation was particularly significant in the slow wave and sigma bands. The effect of age on sleep EEG varies substantially by region and frequency band. This non-uniformity should inform the design of future investigations of aging and sleep. This study provides normative data on the effect of age on sleep EEG topography, and provides a basis from which to explore the mechanisms of normal aging as well as neurodegenerative disorders for which age is a risk factor.

  2. High Resolution Topography of Age-Related Changes in Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Electroencephalography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate E Sprecher

    Full Text Available Sleeping brain activity reflects brain anatomy and physiology. The aim of this study was to use high density (256 channel electroencephalography (EEG during sleep to characterize topographic changes in sleep EEG power across normal aging, with high spatial resolution. Sleep was evaluated in 92 healthy adults aged 18-65 years old using full polysomnography and high density EEG. After artifact removal, spectral power density was calculated for standard frequency bands for all channels, averaged across the NREM periods of the first 3 sleep cycles. To quantify topographic changes with age, maps were generated of the Pearson's coefficient of the correlation between power and age at each electrode. Significant correlations were determined by statistical non-parametric mapping. Absolute slow wave power declined significantly with increasing age across the entire scalp, whereas declines in theta and sigma power were significant only in frontal regions. Power in fast spindle frequencies declined significantly with increasing age frontally, whereas absolute power of slow spindle frequencies showed no significant change with age. When EEG power was normalized across the scalp, a left centro-parietal region showed significantly less age-related decline in power than the rest of the scalp. This partial preservation was particularly significant in the slow wave and sigma bands. The effect of age on sleep EEG varies substantially by region and frequency band. This non-uniformity should inform the design of future investigations of aging and sleep. This study provides normative data on the effect of age on sleep EEG topography, and provides a basis from which to explore the mechanisms of normal aging as well as neurodegenerative disorders for which age is a risk factor.

  3. Rapid Small-Signal Stability Assessment and Enhancement Following Changes in Topology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saric, AT; Stankovic, AM

    2015-05-01

    The paper proposes a scalable and tractable algorithm for dynamic topology optimization of power systems involving changes in branch on/off status, while respecting small-signal stability (SSS) constraints. A procedure for fast updates of the system matrices (in descriptor form) and without additional full matrix inversions is proposed. To additionally reduce the computation time, only critical eigenvalues (right-most or those in a specified damping ratio and frequency range) are calculated. A quadratic optimization approach is proposed for optimized generation re-dispatch to satisfy SSS constraints. The approach is applied to two (medium- and large-scale) real-world test power systems.

  4. Association between perceived neighborhood environment and health of middle-aged women living in rapidly changing urban Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shagdarsuren, Tserendulam; Nakamura, Keiko; McCay, Layla

    2017-05-31

    This study was conducted in rapidly urbanizing Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, to examine patterns of perceived neighborhood quality by residents and the associations between these patterns and self-reported general and mental health in middle-aged women. A questionnaire survey was administered to 960 women aged 40-60 years. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics, subjects' perception of their neighborhood environment, general health status, and mental health as measured using a 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ12) were reported. A total of 830 women completed the questionnaire. Subjects reporting their general health as very good or good accounted for 80.3% and those with a GHQ12 ≥16, which reflects psychological distress or severe distress, accounted for 16.1%. A principal component analysis of the perceptions of neighborhood environment by the residents identified six qualities: physical environment, designed environment, neighborhood community, public safety, natural environment, and citizen services. The perception of better-quality citizen services in the neighborhood was associated with better self-reported general health (odds ratio [OR] = 1.330, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.093-1.618), and the perception of better-quality public safety was associated with less psychological distress (OR = 0.718, 95% CI 0.589-0.876); these associations were independent of education, income, occupation, type of residential area, and number of years living in the current khoroo. The perception of the quality of a neighborhood environment can affect the self-reported general and mental health of residents, even after accounting for the type of residential area and individual socio-economic status. Developing high-quality neighborhoods is an essential component of good planning to promote population health in urban environments.

  5. Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne

    2012-01-01

    Arid and semi-arid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, but we know little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many drylands, the Colorado Plateau in southwestern United States is predicted to experience elevated temperatures and alterations to the timing and amount of annual precipitation. We used a factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to show that altered precipitation resulted in pronounced mortality of the widespread moss Syntrichia caninervis. Increased frequency of 1.2 mm summer rainfall events reduced moss cover from ~25% of total surface cover to fertility. Mosses are important members in many dryland ecosystems and the community changes observed here reveal how subtle modifications to climate can affect ecosystem structure and function on unexpectedly short timescales. Moreover, mortality resulted from increased precipitation through smaller, more frequent events, underscoring the importance of precipitation event size and timing, and highlighting our inadequate understanding of relationships between climate and ecosystem function in drylands.

  6. The Boltysh crater record of rapid vegetation change during the Dan-C2 hyperthermal event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolley, D. W.; Daly, R.; Gilmour, I.; Gilmour, M.; Kelley, S. P.

    2012-04-01

    Analysis of a cored borehole drilled through the sedimentary fill of the 24km wide Boltysh meteorite crater, Ukraine has yielded a unique, high resolution record spanning gymnosperm - angiosperm - fern communities are replaced by precipitation limited (winterwet) plant communities within the negative CIE. Winterwet plant communities dominate the negative CIE, but are replaced within the isotope recovery stage by warm temperate floras. These in turn give way to cooler temperate floras in the post positive CIE section of the uppermost crater fill. The distribution of temperate taxa about the negative CIE represents the broadest scale of oscillatory variation in the palynofloras. Shorter frequency oscillations are evident from diversity and botanical group distributions reflecting changes in moisture availability over several thousand years. Detailed analysis of variability within one of these oscillations records plant community cyclicity across the inception of the negative CIE. This short term cyclicity provides evidence that the replacement of warm termperate by winterwet floras occurred in a stepwise manner at the negative CIE suggesting cumulative atmospheric forcing. At <1mm scale, lamination within the negative CIE showed no obvious lithological or colour differences, and are not seasonal couplets. However, palynofloral analysis of laminations from within the negative CIE has yielded evidence of annual variation identifying the potential for recoding changes in 'paleoweather' across a major hyperthermal event. [1] Jolley, D. W. et al. (2010) Geology 38, 835-838.

  7. Inspection times, the change task, and the rapid-response selection task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, M J; Newton, E J

    2001-11-01

    Three experiments are reported, which are based upon the Wason four-card selection task inspection time paradigm, in which subjects solve computer-presented trials while using a mouse to indicate the card currently under consideration. Evans (1996) had shown that selected cards were inspected for longer than non-selected cards, and this was taken as support for the existence of pre-conscious heuristic processes that direct attention towards relevant aspects of a problem. However, Roberts (1998b) suggested that this inspection time effect is artefactual, due to task format induced biases. Experiment 1 utilized a "change" task: Cards were presented either as selected or not selected, and subjects changed these where necessary. This demonstrated an association between card selection and inspection time independently of one between the act of response and inspection time. Experiment 2 utilized a standard selection task, but subjects either responded within 2 s of each card presentation, or made selections with no time pressure. The curtailment of thinking time increased matching behaviour--more cards matching the terms in the rules were selected--and was replicated in Experiment 3 using a within-subjects design. Overall, the data support Evans' heuristic-analytic framework albeit with some caveats.

  8. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  9. Rapid breeding and varietal replacement are critical to adaptation of cropping systems in the developing world to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlin, Gary N; Cairns, Jill E; Das, Biswanath

    2017-03-01

    Plant breeding is a key mechanism for adaptation of cropping systems to climate change. Much discussion of breeding for climate change focuses on genes with large effects on heat and drought tolerance, but phenology and stress tolerance are highly polygenic. Adaptation will therefore mainly result from continually adjusting allele frequencies at many loci through rapid-cycle breeding that delivers a steady stream of incrementally improved cultivars. This will require access to elite germplasm from other regions, shortened breeding cycles, and multi-location testing systems that adequately sample the target population of environments. The objective of breeding and seed systems serving smallholder farmers should be to ensure that they use varieties developed in the last 10 years. Rapid varietal turnover must be supported by active dissemination of new varieties, and active withdrawal of obsolete ones. Commercial seed systems in temperate regions achieve this through competitive seed markets, but in the developing world, most crops are not served by competitive commercial seed systems, and many varieties date from the end of the Green Revolution (the late 1970s, when the second generation of modern rice and wheat varieties had been widely adopted). These obsolete varieties were developed in a climate different than today's, placing farmers at risk. To reduce this risk, a strengthened breeding system is needed, with freer international exchange of elite varieties, short breeding cycles, high selection intensity, wide-scale phenotyping, and accurate selection supported by genomic technology. Governments need to incentivize varietal release and dissemination systems to continuously replace obsolete varieties.

  10. Rapid realist review of the evidence: achieving lasting change when mental health rehabilitation staff undertake recovery-oriented training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Melanie; Bhanbhro, Sadiq; Cook, Sarah; Killaspy, Helen

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the factors contributing to lasting change in practice following a recovery-based training intervention for inpatient mental health rehabilitation staff. Staff training may help nurses and other staff groups in inpatient mental health rehabilitative settings to increase their recovery-oriented practice. There are no published reviews on the effectiveness of such training and few long-term evaluations. This review informed a realist evaluation of a specific intervention (GetREAL). Rapid realist review methodology was used to generate and prioritize programme theories. ASSIA, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Medline, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science and grey literature searches were performed in September 2014-March 2015 with no date restrictions. Stakeholders suggested further documents. GetREAL project documentation was consulted. Programme theory development took place iteratively with literature identification. Stakeholders validated and prioritized emerging programme theories and the prioritized theories were refined using literature case studies. Fifty-one relevant documents fed into 49 programme theories articulating seven mechanisms for lasting change. Prioritized mechanisms were: staff receptiveness to change; and staff feeling encouraged, motivated and supported by colleagues and management to change. Seven programme theories were prioritized and refined using data from four case studies. Lasting change can be facilitated by collaborative action planning, regular collaborative meetings, appointing a change agent, explicit management endorsement and prioritization and modifying organizational structures. Conversely, a challenging organizational climate, or a prevalence of 'change fatigue', may block change. Pre-intervention exploration may help identify any potential barriers to embedding recovery in the organizational culture. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Rapid environmental change over the past decade revealed by isotopic analysis of the California mussel in the northeast Pacific.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine A Pfister

    Full Text Available The anthropogenic input of fossil fuel carbon into the atmosphere results in increased carbon dioxide (CO(2 into the oceans, a process that lowers seawater pH, decreases alkalinity and can inhibit the production of shell material. Corrosive water has recently been documented in the northeast Pacific, along with a rapid decline in seawater pH over the past decade. A lack of instrumentation prior to the 1990s means that we have no indication whether these carbon cycle changes have precedence or are a response to recent anthropogenic CO(2 inputs. We analyzed stable carbon and oxygen isotopes (δ(13C, δ(18O of decade-old California mussel shells (Mytilus californianus in the context of an instrumental seawater record of the same length. We further compared modern shells to shells from 1000 to 1340 years BP and from the 1960s to the present and show declines in the δ(13C of modern shells that have no historical precedent. Our finding of decline in another shelled mollusk (limpet and our extensive environmental data show that these δ(13C declines are unexplained by changes to the coastal food web, upwelling regime, or local circulation. Our observed decline in shell δ(13C parallels other signs of rapid changes to the nearshore carbon cycle in the Pacific, including a decline in pH that is an order of magnitude greater than predicted by an equilibrium response to rising atmospheric CO(2, the presence of low pH water throughout the region, and a record of a similarly steep decline in δ(13C in algae in the Gulf of Alaska. These unprecedented changes and the lack of a clear causal variable underscores the need for better quantifying carbon dynamics in nearshore environments.

  12. A retrospective case report on demographic changes of learners at a school for children with Autism Spectrum Disorder in the Gauteng Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumari van Biljon

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Limited research has been published about the demographic characteristics of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD in South Africa. Describing the profiles of learners from a school for children with ASD may contribute to local knowledge in the field. A retrospective comparative design was utilised to compare the demographic characteristics of learners over two time intervals: 1992-2002 (Group 1, n=32 and 2003-2014 (Group 2, n=109. A total of 141 historical admission records in paper-based files were reviewed. Results indicated that there is a large male gender bias (8.4:1 in learners, which increased over the years. The age of the child when parents first became concerned and the age at diagnosis and assessment at school increased over both time periods. There was also an increase in the diversity of home languages after 2002. Parental qualifications decreased, but social class improved in recent years. The low qualification of a mother was associated with an advanced age of the child at school entry. The data serves as a point of reference for future studies about the characteristics of school children with ASD in South Africa.

  13. Changes in Co-Occurrence of Smoking and Harmful Drinking among Youth: a Study from the Chi Linh Demographic - Epidemiological Surveillance System in Vietnam, 2006-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duc, Duong Minh; Vui, Le Thi; Quynh, Nguyen Thuy; Minh, Hoang Van

    2016-01-01

    Smoking and harmful drinking dramatically increase health risks but little is known about their cooccurrence and factors that influence this co-habit, limiting development and implementation of appropriately targeted prevention interventions. This study was conducted among youth aged 10-24 years old in the Chi Linh Demographic - Epidemiological Surveillance System (CHILILAB DESS). The total numbers in the first, second and third rounds in 2006, 2009 and 2013 were 12,406, 10,211, and 7,654, respectively. A random-effects logit model controlling for both time-variant and time-invariant variables was applied to explore factors associated with current smoking, harmful drinking, and occurrence of smoking and harmful drinking together. We found dramatically increasing trends in current smoking, harmful drinking and co-occurrence among youth. Our results indicate similar health problems among youth in peri-urban areas in Vietnam. Demographic characteristics (older age, being male, being unmarried, and having informal work) appeared to be predictors for smoking and drinking behaviour. Besides, peer and family members had significant influence on smoking, whereas having a close-friend who was smoking was the most important variable. The results suggested that smoking and harmful drinking should not be solved with separate, stand-alone interventions but rather with integrated efforts.

  14. Changes in rates of capture and demographics of Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat) in Western Virginia before and after onset of white-nose syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Richard J.; Powers, Karen E.; Orndorff, Wil; Ford, W. Mark; Hobson, Christopher S.

    2016-01-01

    Documenting the impacts of white-nose syndrome (WNS) on demographic patterns, such as annual survivorship and recruitment, is important to understanding the extirpation or possible stabilization and recovery of species over time. To document demographic impacts of WNS on Myotis septentrionalis (Northern Long-eared Bat), we mistnetted at sites in western Virginia where Northern Long-eared Bats were captured in summer before (1990–2009) and after (2011–2013) the onset of WNS. Our mean capture rates per hour, adjusted for area of net and sampling duration, declined significantly from 0.102 bats/ m2/h before WNS to 0.005 bats/m2/h (-95.1%) by 2013. We noted a time lag in the rate of decline between published data based on bats captured during the swarming season and our summer mist-netting captures from the same geographic area. Although proportions of pregnant or lactating females did not vary statistically in samples obtained before and after the onset of WNS, the proportion of juvenile bats declined significantly (-76.7%), indicating that the viability of Northern Long-eared Bats in western Virginia is tenuous.

  15. A humidity shock leads to rapid, temperature dependent changes in coffee leaf physiology and gene expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thioune, El-Hadji; McCarthy, James; Gallagher, Thomas; Osborne, Bruce

    2017-03-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of above-normal atmospheric water deficits contemporaneous with periods of high temperatures. Here we explore alterations in physiology and gene expression in leaves of Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner caused by a sharp drop in relative humidity (RH) at three different temperatures. Both stomatal conductance (gs) and CO2 assimilation (A) measurements showed that gs and A values fell quickly at all temperatures after the transfer to low RH.  However, leaf relative water content measurements indicated that leaves nonetheless experienced substantial water losses, implying that stomatal closure and/or resupply of water was not fast enough to stop excessive evaporative losses.  At 27 and 35 °C, upper leaves showed significant decreases in Fv/Fm compared with lower leaves, suggesting a stronger impact on photosystem II for upper leaves, while at 42 °C, both upper and lower leaves were equally affected. Quantitative gene expression analysis of transcription factors associated with conventional dehydration stress, and genes involved with abscisic acid signalling, such as CcNCED3, indicated temperature-dependent, transcriptional changes during the Humidity Shock ('HuS') treatments.  No expression was seen at 27 °C for the heat-shock gene CcHSP90-7, but it was strongly induced during the 42 °C 'HuS' treatment. Consistent with a proposal that important cellular damage occurred during the 42 °C 'HuS' treatment, two genes implicated in senescence were induced by this treatment. Overall, the data show that C. canephora plants subjected to a sharp drop in RH exhibit major, temperature-dependent alterations in leaf physiology and important changes in the expression of genes associated with abiotic stress and senescence. The results presented suggest that more detailed studies on the combined effects of low RH and high temperature are warranted. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights

  16. Post-bleaching coral community change on southern Maldivian reefs: is there potential for rapid recovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, C. T.; Morgan, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Given the severity of the 2016 global bleaching event, there are major questions about how quickly reef communities will recover. Here, we explore the ecological and physical structural changes that occurred across five atoll interior reefs in the southern Maldives using data collected at 6 and 12 months post-bleaching. Following initial severe coral mortality, further minor coral mortality had occurred by 12 months post-bleaching, and coral cover is now low (individuals m-2), well below those measured 9-12 months following the 1998 bleaching event, and below recovery thresholds identified on other Indian Ocean reefs. Our findings suggest that the physical structure of these reefs will need to decline further before effective recruitment and recovery can begin.

  17. Logarithmic superposition of force response with rapid length changes in relaxed porcine airway smooth muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ijpma, G; Al-Jumaily, A M; Cairns, S P; Sieck, G C

    2010-12-01

    We present a systematic quantitative analysis of power-law force relaxation and investigate logarithmic superposition of force response in relaxed porcine airway smooth muscle (ASM) strips in vitro. The term logarithmic superposition describes linear superposition on a logarithmic scale, which is equivalent to multiplication on a linear scale. Additionally, we examine whether the dynamic response of contracted and relaxed muscles is dominated by cross-bridge cycling or passive dynamics. The study shows the following main findings. For relaxed ASM, the force response to length steps of varying amplitude (0.25-4% of reference length, both lengthening and shortening) are well-fitted with power-law functions over several decades of time (10⁻² to 10³ s), and the force response after consecutive length changes is more accurately fitted assuming logarithmic superposition rather than linear superposition. Furthermore, for sinusoidal length oscillations in contracted and relaxed muscles, increasing the oscillation amplitude induces greater hysteresivity and asymmetry of force-length relationships, whereas increasing the frequency dampens hysteresivity but increases asymmetry. We conclude that logarithmic superposition is an important feature of relaxed ASM, which may facilitate a more accurate prediction of force responses in the continuous dynamic environment of the respiratory system. In addition, the single power-function response to length changes shows that the dynamics of cross-bridge cycling can be ignored in relaxed muscle. The similarity in response between relaxed and contracted states implies that the investigated passive dynamics play an important role in both states and should be taken into account.

  18. Quantifying past and present connectivity illuminates a rapidly changing landscape for the African elephant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epps, Clinton W; Wasser, Samuel K; Keim, Jonah L; Mutayoba, Benezeth M; Brashares, Justin S

    2013-03-01

    There is widespread concern about impacts of land-use change on connectivity among animal and plant populations, but those impacts are difficult to quantify. Moreover, lack of knowledge regarding ecosystems before fragmentation may obscure appropriate conservation targets. We use occurrence and population genetic data to contrast connectivity for a long-lived mega-herbivore over historical and contemporary time frames. We test whether (i) historical gene flow is predicted by persistent landscape features rather than human settlement, (ii) contemporary connectivity is most affected by human settlement and (iii) recent gene flow estimates show the effects of both factors. We used 16 microsatellite loci to estimate historical and recent gene flow among African elephant (Loxodonta africana) populations in seven protected areas in Tanzania, East Africa. We used historical gene flow (FST and G'ST ) to test and optimize models of historical landscape resistance to movement. We inferred contemporary landscape resistance from elephant resource selection, assessed via walking surveys across ~15 400 km(2) of protected and unprotected lands. We used assignment-based recent gene flow estimates to optimize and test the contemporary resistance model, and to test a combined historical and contemporary model. We detected striking changes in connectivity. Historical connectivity among elephant populations was strongly influenced by slope but not human settlement, whereas contemporary connectivity was influenced most by human settlement. Recent gene flow was strongly influenced by slope but was also correlated with contemporary resistance. Inferences across multiple timescales can better inform conservation efforts on large and complex landscapes, while mitigating the fundamental problem of shifting baselines in conservation. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Long-Term Soil Experiments: A Key to Managing Earth's Rapidly Changing Critical Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, D., Jr.

    2014-12-01

    In a few decades, managers of Earth's Critical Zones (biota, humans, land, and water) will be challenged to double food and fiber production and diminish adverse effects of management on the wider environment. To meet these challenges, an array of scientific approaches is being used to increase understanding of Critical Zone functioning and evolution, and one amongst these approaches needs to be long-term soil field studies to move us beyond black boxing the belowground Critical Zone, i.e., to further understanding of processes driving changes in the soil environment. Long-term soil experiments (LTSEs) provide direct observations of soil change and functioning across time scales of decades, data critical for biological, biogeochemical, and environmental assessments of sustainability; for predictions of soil fertility, productivity, and soil-environment interactions; and for developing models at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Unfortunately, LTSEs globally are not in a good state, and they take years to mature, are vulnerable to loss, and even today remain to be fully inventoried. Of the 250 LTSEs in a web-based network, results demonstrate that soils and belowground Critical Zones are highly dynamic and responsive to human management. The objective of this study is to review the contemporary state of LTSEs and consider how they contribute to three open questions: (1) can soils sustain a doubling of food production in the coming decades without further impinging on the wider environment, (2) how do soils interact with the global C cycle, and (3) how can soil management establish greater control over nutrient cycling. While LTSEs produce significant data and perspectives for all three questions, there is on-going need and opportunity for reviews of the long-term soil-research base, for establishment of an efficiently run network of LTSEs aimed at sustainability and improving management control over C and nutrient cycling, and for research teams that

  20. Fluvial response to the last Holocene rapid climate change in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Blanchemanche, Philippe; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Tillier, Margaux; Bohbot, Hervé

    2017-05-01

    The variability of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastal lowlands and its relationship with modes of climate change were analysed from the late 9th to the 18th centuries CE. Geochemical analyses were undertaken from a lagoonal sequence and surrounding sediments in order to track the fluvial inputs into the lagoon. An index based on the K/S and Rb/S ratios was used to evidence the main periods of fluvial activity. This index reveals that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was a drier period characterized by a lower fluvial activity, while the Little Ice Age (LIA) was a wetter period with an increase of the river dynamics. Three periods of higher than average fluvial activity were evidenced at the end of the first millennium CE (ca. 900-950 cal yr CE), in the first half of the second millennium CE (ca. 1150-1550 cal yr CE), and during the 1600s-1700s CE (ca. 1650-1800 cal yr CE). The comparison of these fluvial periods with other records of riverine or lacustrine floods in Spain, Italy, and South of France seems to indicate a general increase in fluvial and flood patterns in the Northwestern Mediterranean in response to the climate change from the MCA to the LIA, although some episodes of flooding are not found in all records. Besides, the phases of higher than average fluvial dynamics are in good agreement with the North Atlantic cold events evidenced from records of ice-rafted debris. The evolution of fluvial activity in the Northwestern Mediterranean coastlands during the last millennium could have been driven by atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns.

  1. Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beever, Erik A.; Woodward, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is

  2. Sex Differences in Knee Flexion Angle During a Rapid Change of Direction While Running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheu, Christopher L; Gray, Aaron M; Brown, David; Smith, Brian A

    2015-12-01

    Females experience greater overall rates of athletic anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury than males. The specific mechanisms of the predisposition remain unclear. Modeling of knee kinematics has shown that the more extended the knee joint, the greater the strain on the ACL. The authors hypothesized that female athletes would have a lesser degree of knee flexion than male athletes at initial ground contact while performing change-of-direction cutting maneuvers. Controlled laboratory study. Twenty female and 20 male high school soccer athletes with at least 1 year of experience were recruited for the study. Athletes were excluded if they had a history of any major lower limb injury or current knee pain causing a reduction in training and/or competition. Reflective markers were attached at the greater trochanter of the femur, the lateral epicondyle of the knee, and the lateral malleolus of the ankle to enable motion capture. Each athlete performed 6 change-of-direction maneuvers in random order in front of 2 cameras. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine differences between the sexes from the motion data captured; P angles between male and female participants at the 90° and 135° cutting angles. At 90°, males and females showed initial contact knee flexion angles (mean ± SD) of 39.0° ± 6.8° and 29.3° ± 6.2°, respectively (P angles of 56.4° ± 6.9° and 49.7° ± 7.0°, respectively (P = .0036). At 135°, males and females showed mean initial contact knee flexion angles of 36.8° ± 7.9° and 29.7° ± 7.8°, respectively (P = .0053), and mean maximum flexion angles of 60.7° ± 8.1° and 51.6° ± 9.4°, respectively (P = .0017). The research conducted is intended to foster an awareness of injury disposition in female athletes and guide future endeavors to develop, test, and implement a proactive approach in lowering female noncontact athletic ACL injury rates. This project adds to the literature as wider side-cut maneuvers (≥90°) were

  3. The welfare state and demographic dividends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gemma Abío

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The demographic transition experienced by developed countries produces initial positive effects on economic growth ‒ the first demographic dividend ‒ which can be extended into a second demographic dividend if baby boomers' savings increase capital accumulation. Nevertheless, aging might reverse this process if dissaving of elderly baby boomers and the pressure on the pay-as-you-go financed welfare state reduce savings and capital. Objective: The aim of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which demographic dividends in Spain provide an opportunity for the reform of the welfare state system for an aging population. Methods: We decompose demographic dividends using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with realistic demography and public transfers from the National Transfer Accounts database. This allows us to capture the endogenous evolution of savings and capital accumulation and, hence, the second demographic dividend. Results: When baby boomers enter the labor market, the purely demographic support ratio increases and this positive effect is extended by composition changes in the age structure of workers. When they start saving, the second demographic dividend arises, while its total net effect depends both on the strength of the aging process and on transfer size. Conclusions: The derived decomposition shows that the second demographic dividend might also disappear. Sharp population aging in Spain implies that capital will shrink drastically after 2040. Before this, there seems to be margin for reforms; however, an extension of the welfare state toward the Nordic model would considerably reduce capital. Contribution: This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of demographics on economic growth by decomposing demographic dividends and investigating the impact of different welfare state transfer systems on the second demographic dividend.

  4. Rapid Sampling of Escherichia coli After Changing Oxygen Conditions Reveals Transcriptional Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Joachim; Ulmer, Andreas; Jäger, Günter; Sawodny, Oliver; Feuer, Ronny

    2017-02-28

    Escherichia coli is able to shift between anaerobic and aerobic metabolism by adapting its gene expression, e.g., of metabolic genes, to the new environment. The dynamics of gene expression that result from environmental shifts are limited, amongst others, by the time needed for regulation and transcription elongation. In this study, we examined gene expression dynamics after an anaerobic-to-aerobic shift on a short time scale (0.5, 1, 2, 5, and 10 min) by RNA sequencing with emphasis on delay times and transcriptional elongation rates (TER). Transient expression patterns and timing of differential expression, characterized by delay and elongation, were identified as key features of the dataset. Gene ontology enrichment analysis revealed early upregulation of respiratory and iron-related gene sets. We inferred specific TERs of 89 operons with a mean TER of 42.0 nt/s and mean delay time of 22.4 s. TERs correlate with sequence features, such as codon bias, whereas delay times correlate with the involvement of regulators. The presented data illustrate that at very short times after a shift in oxygenation, extensional changes of the transcriptome, such as temporary responses, can be observed. Besides regulation, TERs contribute to the dynamics of gene expression.

  5. Light, time, and the physiology of biotic response to rapid climate change in animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, William E; Holzapfel, Christina M

    2010-01-01

    Examination of temperate and polar regions of Earth shows that the nonbiological world is exquisitely sensitive to the direct effects of temperature, whereas the biological world is largely organized by light. Herein, we discuss the use of day length by animals at physiological and genetic levels, beginning with a comparative experimental study that shows the preeminent role of light in determining fitness in seasonal environments. Typically, at seasonally appropriate times, light initiates a cascade of physiological events mediating the input and interpretation of day length to the output of specific hormones that ultimately determine whether animals prepare to develop, reproduce, hibernate, enter dormancy, or migrate. The mechanisms that form the basis of seasonal time keeping and their adjustment during climate change are reviewed at the physiological and genetic levels. Future avenues for research are proposed that span basic questions from how animals transition from dependency on tropical cues to temperate cues during range expansions, to more applied questions of species survival and conservation biology during periods of climatic stress.

  6. Extensive transcriptome analysis correlates the plasticity of Entamoeba histolytica pathogenesis to rapid phenotype changes depending on the environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Christian; Koutero, Mikael; Dillies, Marie-Agnes; Varet, Hugo; Lopez-Camarillo, Cesar; Coppée, Jean Yves; Hon, Chung-Chau; Guillén, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Amoebiasis is a human infectious disease due to the amoeba parasite Entamoeba histolytica. The disease appears in only 20% of the infections. Diversity in phenotypes may occur within the same infectious strain in the gut; for instance, parasites can be commensal (in the intestinal lumen) or pathogenic (inside the tissue). The degree of pathogenesis of clinical isolates varies greatly. These findings raise the hypothesis that genetic derivation may account for amoebic diverse phenotypes. The main goal of this study was to analyse gene expression changes of a single virulent amoebic strain in different environmental contexts where it exhibit different degrees of virulence, namely isolated from humans and maintained through animal liver passages, in contact with the human colon and short or prolonged in vitro culture. The study reveals major transcriptome changes in virulent parasites upon contact with human colon explants, including genes related to sugar metabolism, cytoskeleton rearrangement, stress responses and DNA repair. Furthermore, in long-term cultured parasites, drastic changes in gene expression for proteins with functions for proteasome and tRNA activities were found. Globally we conclude that rapid changes in gene expression rather than genetic derivation can sustain the invasive phenotype of a single virulent isolate of E. histolytica. PMID:27767091

  7. Evidence that implicit assumptions of 'no evolution' of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H; Fonseca, Dina M

    2015-04-05

    Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7-10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  8. Rapid changes in the light/dark cycle disrupt memory of conditioned fear in mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dawn H Loh

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Circadian rhythms govern many aspects of physiology and behavior including cognitive processes. Components of neural circuits involved in learning and memory, e.g., the amygdala and the hippocampus, exhibit circadian rhythms in gene expression and signaling pathways. The functional significance of these rhythms is still not understood. In the present study, we sought to determine the impact of transiently disrupting the circadian system by shifting the light/dark (LD cycle. Such "jet lag" treatments alter daily rhythms of gene expression that underlie circadian oscillations as well as disrupt the synchrony between the multiple oscillators found within the body. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We subjected adult male C57Bl/6 mice to a contextual fear conditioning protocol either before or after acute phase shifts of the LD cycle. As part of this study, we examined the impact of phase advances and phase delays, and the effects of different magnitudes of phase shifts. Under all conditions tested, we found that recall of fear conditioned behavior was specifically affected by the jet lag. We found that phase shifts potentiated the stress-evoked corticosterone response without altering baseline levels of this hormone. The jet lag treatment did not result in overall sleep deprivation, but altered the temporal distribution of sleep. Finally, we found that prior experience of jet lag helps to compensate for the reduced recall due to acute phase shifts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Acute changes to the LD cycle affect the recall of fear-conditioned behavior. This suggests that a synchronized circadian system may be broadly important for normal cognition and that the consolidation of memories may be particularly sensitive to disruptions of circadian timing.

  9. Changing trends in European alcoholic beverage drinking: selected social, demographic, economic factors, drinking's related harms, and prevention control policies between the 1960s and 2000s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voller, Fabio; Maccari, Francesco; Pepe, Pasquale; Allamani, Allaman

    2014-10-01

    This study confirms that during the decades following WW II there was a tendency towards closure of consumption of alcoholic beverages among the European countries. The Northern countries, which during the 1960s manifested the lowest rates of alcohol consumption, ended up with greater consumption rates than the Southern countries, manifested the opposite trend; greater amounts of consumptions in the 1960s and lower consumptions in the 2000s. During the same some period, social, demographic and economic indicators--urbanization, rate of elderly males, Income, female education, female employment and mother's age at their childbirths, tended to increase, while the alcoholic beverage control policy strategies showed differences according to the country. Liver disease-related mortality, decreased in most countries. Study limitations are noted.

  10. Rapid quantitative assessment of land patterns change and erupted volumes by spaceborne SAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villeneuve, N.; Bianchi, M.; Cigna, F.; di Muro, A.; Fortunato, G.; Sedze, M.; Ferrucci, F.

    2013-12-01

    Synthetic Aperture Radar observations do not apply frequently to the quantitative mapping of lava flows and of eruptive patterns, as multispectral mid-to-high spatial/temporal resolution observations are naturally best suited for high-temperature contouring and eruptive rate assessment. However, in case of urgent need for quantitative geographical information, high-spatial and high-temporal resolution SAR data may become essential or unique in providing timely information support to officials in charge of volcano emergencies. This was the case of the early weeks of the 2011-2012 Nyiamulagira eruption (DR Congo), whose fast and large lava flow developed in an area off-limited by the ongoing military unrest, and persistent cloud cover spoiled the ground view to electro-optical high-resolution payloads. A combination of two automated techniques - one non-interferometric and one interferometric - on very-high resolution X-band images acquired during less-than-weekly revisits by the Cosmo SkyMED constellation, allowed locating the eruption site, highlighting the inherent landscape modifications, mapping the progression of the ~22 km lava flow, and carrying out volume estimates by precise DEM subtractions. The interferometric technique is based on the application of the PS-InSAR derived SqueeSAR procedure (Ferretti et al., IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens.,49-9, 3460-3470; 2011) to series of Cosmo-SkyMED tandem pairs for obtaining high-precision/high-resolution DEMs anywhere-anytime within a limited time framework. Validation against a recent LiDAR DEM of the summit areas of Piton de la Fournaise (Reunion Island) returned a typical accuracy of 0.4m × 2.3m in one-orbit geometry. The non-interferometric technique exploits amplitude and coherence changes to single out, map and measure newly appeared volcanic features of significant dimensions. The overall observation-and-processing strategy was developed in the framework and under the specifications of project EVOSS (European

  11. Superimposing various biophysical and social scales in a rapidly changing rural area (SW Niger)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Christian; Massuel, Sylvain; Favreau, Guillaume; Cappelaere, Bernard; Leblanc, Marc; Bachir, Salifou; Ousmane, Boureïma

    2014-05-01

    transboundary aquifer that extends far beyond the study area, over about 150 000 km2. It is also heterogeneous. Like surface flows, but at a different scale, groundwater flows are marked by a strong endorheism. For example the Dantiandou closed piezometric depression extends over about approximately 5000 km2. These natural closed depressions are explained only by evapotranspiration uptake, weak in absolute terms (a few mm.a-1) but with a very high impact on hydrodynamics because of poor permeability and porosity. Both density of observations and hydraulic continuity of the CT3 aquifer give a fine idea of groundwater changes in the whole area. Human activities, continuously adapting in this poor rural area, add another complexity to the hydrological diversity in surface and ground water. The replacement of the natural vegetation with millet fields and fallow increased the surface runoff, and consequently water accumulation in temporary pools and then CT3 recharge. In the SE part of the study area, the water table has risen up to outcropping in the lowest valley bottoms. These new permanent ponds reflect groundwater while temporary ponds still reflect surface dynamics. This new component of the hydrological landscape induces several consequences, in physical and human dimensions. Evaporation strongly affects the permanent water and increases its salinity while the natural mineralization of groundwater is very low. The easier access to water resources allows a significant development of local gardening, which modifies the social functioning of villages (e.g. land rights between villages and within a village, diversification of crops and sources of income, new sales channels). Different physically based models (for surface and ground water) were built, with a significant discrepancy between their respective quantification of water flows at the region scale. Extrapolation of surface fluxes from the few instrumented catchments to a much larger mosaic of non-instrumented catchments is

  12. DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY: THEORY, METHODOLOGY, EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V. Karmanov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the theoretical aspects of demographic security. Reviewed and analyzed the point of view of various scholars to the definition of demographic security. The main directions of statistical analysis of demographic security.

  13. Toxicant induced changes on delayed fluorescence decay kinetics of cyanobacteria and green algae: a rapid and sensitive biotest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franziska Leunert

    Full Text Available Algal tests have developed into routine tools for testing toxicity of pollutants in aquatic environments. Meanwhile, in addition to algal growth rates, an increasing number of fluorescence based methods are used for rapid and sensitive toxicity measures. The present study stresses the suitability of delayed fluorescence (DF as a promising parameter for biotests. DF is based on the recombination fluorescence at the reaction centre of photosystem II, which is emitted only by photosynthetically active cells. We analyzed the effects of three chemicals (3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl-1,1-dimethylurea (DCMU, 3,5 Dichlorophenol (3,5 DCP and copper on the shape of the DF decay kinetics for potential use in phytoplankton toxicity tests. The short incubation tests were done with four phytoplankton species, with special emphasis on the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa. All species exhibited a high sensitivity to DCMU, but cyanobacteria were more affected by copper and less by 3,5 DCP than the tested green algae. Analyses of changes in the DF decay curve in response to the added chemicals indicated the feasibility of the DF decay approach as a rapid and sensitive testing tool.

  14. Rapid Changes in Cell Wall Yielding of Elongating Begonia argenteo-guttata L. Leaves in Response to Changes in Plant Water Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serpe, M D; Matthews, M A

    1992-12-01

    Elongation and epidermal cell turgor (P) of Begonia argenteoguttata L. leaves were simultaneously measured to determine the wall-yielding behavior of growing leaf cells in response to changes in plant water status. Rapid changes in plant water status were imposed by irrigating the rooting media with solutions of -0.20 and -0.30 MPa mannitol. These treatments caused decreases in P of 0.09 and 0.17 MPa, respectively. The decreases in P were complete within 10 min, and P did not change thereafter. Following treatments, leaf elongation was nil for periods of 25 to 38 min. Subsequently, elongation recovered to steady rates that were 45 or 75% lower than in the well-watered controls. Leaves of plants that were pretreated with -0.30 MPa of mannitol and rewatered showed an increase in P of 0.19 MPa, which was complete within 15 min; P did not change thereafter. Rewatering caused a several-fold increase in leaf elongation rates, which subsequently declined while P was increasing, to reach steady rates similar to that of the controls. Several estimates of elastic deformation indicated that most of the elongation responses to altered P were due to changes in irreversible deformation. The results showed that the initial effects of changes in P on leaf elongation were partially compensated for by changes in the cell wall-yielding properties. We conclude that linear relationships between P and adjusted growth rates are not necessarily indicative of constant wall-yielding properties. Instead, these relationships may reflect the effect of P on wall-loosening processes.

  15. Rapid Changes in Cell Wall Yielding of Elongating Begonia argenteo-guttata L. Leaves in Response to Changes in Plant Water Status 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serpe, Marcelo D.; Matthews, Mark A.

    1992-01-01

    Elongation and epidermal cell turgor (P) of Begonia argenteoguttata L. leaves were simultaneously measured to determine the wall-yielding behavior of growing leaf cells in response to changes in plant water status. Rapid changes in plant water status were imposed by irrigating the rooting media with solutions of −0.20 and −0.30 MPa mannitol. These treatments caused decreases in P of 0.09 and 0.17 MPa, respectively. The decreases in P were complete within 10 min, and P did not change thereafter. Following treatments, leaf elongation was nil for periods of 25 to 38 min. Subsequently, elongation recovered to steady rates that were 45 or 75% lower than in the well-watered controls. Leaves of plants that were pretreated with −0.30 MPa of mannitol and rewatered showed an increase in P of 0.19 MPa, which was complete within 15 min; P did not change thereafter. Rewatering caused a several-fold increase in leaf elongation rates, which subsequently declined while P was increasing, to reach steady rates similar to that of the controls. Several estimates of elastic deformation indicated that most of the elongation responses to altered P were due to changes in irreversible deformation. The results showed that the initial effects of changes in P on leaf elongation were partially compensated for by changes in the cell wall-yielding properties. We conclude that linear relationships between P and adjusted growth rates are not necessarily indicative of constant wall-yielding properties. Instead, these relationships may reflect the effect of P on wall-loosening processes. PMID:16653208

  16. Rapid shifts in Atta cephalotes fungus-garden enzyme activity after a change in fungal substrate (Attini, Formicidae)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kooij, P W; Schiøtt, M; Boomsma, J J

    2011-01-01

    Fungus gardens of the basidiomycete Leucocoprinus gongylophorus sustain large colonies of leaf-cutting ants by degrading the plant material collected by the ants. Recent studies have shown that enzyme activity in these gardens is primarily targeted toward starch, proteins and the pectin matrix...... associated with cell walls, rather than toward structural cell wall components such as cellulose and hemicelluloses. Substrate constituents are also known to be sequentially degraded in different sections of the fungus garden. To test the plasticity in the extracellular expression of fungus-garden enzymes......, we measured the changes in enzyme activity after a controlled shift in fungal substrate offered to six laboratory colonies of Atta cephalotes. An ant diet consisting exclusively of grains of parboiled rice rapidly increased the activity of endo-proteinases and some of the pectinases attacking...

  17. Rapid identification of molecular changes in tulsi (Ocimum sanctum Linn) upon ageing using leaf spray ionization mass spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Depanjan; Srimany, Amitava; Pradeep, T

    2012-10-07

    Tulsi or Holy Basil (Ocimum sanctum Linn) is a medicinally important plant. Ursolic acid (UA) and oleanolic acid (OA) are among its major constituents which account for many medicinal activities of the plant. In the present work, we deployed a new ambient ionization method, leaf spray ionization, for rapid detection of UA, OA and their oxidation products from tulsi leaves. Tandem electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) has been performed on tulsi leaf extracts in methanol to establish the identity of the compounds. We probed changes occurring in the relative amounts of the parent compounds (UA and OA) with their oxidized products and the latter show an increasing trend upon ageing. The findings are verified by ESI-MS analysis of tulsi leaf extracts, which shows the same trend proving the reliability of the leaf spray method.

  18. Habitat and indigenous gut microbes contribute to the plasticity of gut microbiome in oriental river prawn during rapid environmental change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Yu Chen

    Full Text Available Growing evidence points out that the capacity of organisms to acclimate or adapt to new habitat conditions basically depends on their phenomic plasticity attributes, of which their gut commensal microbiota might be an essential impact factor. Especially in aquatic organisms, which are in direct and continual contact with the aquatic environment, the complex and dynamic microbiota have significant effects on health and development. However, an understanding of the relative contribution of internal sorting (host genetic and colonization (environmental processes is still unclear. To understand how microbial communities differ in response to rapid environmental change, we surveyed and studied the environmental and gut microbiota of native and habitat-exchanged shrimp (Macrobrachium nipponense using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing on the Illumina MiSeq platform. Corresponding with microbial diversity of their living water areas, the divergence in gut microbes of lake-to-river shrimp (CK increased, while that of river-to-lake shrimp (KC decreased. Importantly, among the candidate environment specific gut microbes in habitat-exchanged shrimp, over half of reads were associated with the indigenous bacteria in native shrimp gut, yet more candidates presented in CK may reflect the complexity of new environment. Our results suggest that shrimp gut microbiota has high plasticity when its host faces environmental changes, even over short timescales. Further, the changes in external environment might influence the gut microbiome not just by providing environment-associated microbes directly, but also by interfering with the composition of indigenous gut bacteria indirectly.

  19. Dynamic changes in single unit activity and γ oscillations in a thalamocortical circuit during rapid instrumental learning.

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    Chunxiu Yu

    Full Text Available The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC and mediodorsal thalamus (MD together form a thalamocortical circuit that has been implicated in the learning and production of goal-directed actions. In this study we measured neural activity in both regions simultaneously, as rats learned to press a lever to earn food rewards. In both MD and mPFC, instrumental learning was accompanied by dramatic changes in the firing patterns of the neurons, in particular the rapid emergence of single-unit neural activity reflecting the completion of the action and reward delivery. In addition, we observed distinct patterns of changes in the oscillatory LFP response in MD and mPFC. With learning, there was a significant increase in theta band oscillations (6-10 Hz in the MD, but not in the mPFC. By contrast, gamma band oscillations (40-55 Hz increased in the mPFC, but not in the MD. Coherence between these two regions also changed with learning: gamma coherence in relation to reward delivery increased, whereas theta coherence did not. Together these results suggest that, as rats learned the instrumental contingency between action and outcome, the emergence of task related neural activity is accompanied by enhanced functional interaction between MD and mPFC in response to the reward feedback.

  20. Multiple reciprocal adaptations and rapid genetic change upon experimental coevolution of an animal host and its microbial parasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, Rebecca D; Makus, Carsten; Hasert, Barbara; Michiels, Nico K; Schulenburg, Hinrich

    2010-04-20

    The coevolution between hosts and parasites is predicted to have complex evolutionary consequences for both antagonists, often within short time periods. To date, conclusive experimental support for the predictions is available mainly for microbial host systems, but for only a few multicellular host taxa. We here introduce a model system of experimental coevolution that consists of the multicellular nematode host Caenorhabditis elegans and the microbial parasite Bacillus thuringiensis. We demonstrate that 48 host generations of experimental coevolution under controlled laboratory conditions led to multiple changes in both parasite and host. These changes included increases in the traits of direct relevance to the interaction such as parasite virulence (i.e., host killing rate) and host resistance (i.e., the ability to survive pathogens). Importantly, our results provide evidence of reciprocal effects for several other central predictions of the coevolutionary dynamics, including (i) possible adaptation costs (i.e., reductions in traits related to the reproductive rate, measured in the absence of the antagonist), (ii) rapid genetic changes, and (iii) an overall increase in genetic diversity across time. Possible underlying mechanisms for the genetic effects were found to include increased rates of genetic exchange in the parasite and elevated mutation rates in the host. Taken together, our data provide comprehensive experimental evidence of the consequences of host-parasite coevolution, and thus emphasize the pace and complexity of reciprocal adaptations associated with these antagonistic interactions.

  1. Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2013-01-01

    Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

  2. Environmental influences on the at-sea behaviour of a major consumer, Mirounga leonina, in a rapidly changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor McIntyre

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea. We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina, during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo, northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell–Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.

  3. Three-dimensional analysis of maxillary changes associated with facemask and rapid maxillary expansion compared with bone anchored maxillary protraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hino, Claudia Toyama; Cevidanes, Lucia H S; Nguyen, Tung T; De Clerck, Hugo J; Franchi, Lorenzo; McNamara, James A

    2013-11-01

    Our objectives in this study were to evaluate in 3 dimensions the growth and treatment effects on the midface and the maxillary dentition produced by facemask therapy in association with rapid maxillary expansion (RME/FM) compared with bone-anchored maxillary protraction (BAMP). Forty-six patients with Class III malocclusion were treated with either RME/FM (n = 21) or BAMP (n = 25). Three-dimensional models generated from cone-beam computed tomographic scans, taken before and after approximately 1 year of treatment, were registered on the anterior cranial base and measured using color-coded maps and semitransparent overlays. The skeletal changes in the maxilla and the right and left zygomas were on average 2.6 mm in the RME/FM group and 3.7 mm in the BAMP group; these were different statistically. Seven RME/FM patients and 4 BAMP patients had a predominantly vertical displacement of the maxilla. The dental changes at the maxillary incisors were on average 3.2 mm in the RME/FM group and 4.3 mm in the BAMP group. Ten RME/FM patients had greater dental compensations than skeletal changes. This 3-dimensional study shows that orthopedic changes can be obtained with both RME/FM and BAMP treatments, with protraction of the maxilla and the zygomas. Approximately half of the RME/FM patients had greater dental than skeletal changes, and a third of the RME/FM compared with 17% of the BAMP patients had a predominantly vertical maxillary displacement. Copyright © 2013 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Rapid changes in magma storage beneath the Klyuchevskoy group of volcanoes inferred from time-dependent seismic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koulakov, Ivan; Gordeev, Evgeniy I.; Dobretsov, Nikolay L.; Vernikovsky, Valery A.; Senyukov, Sergey; Jakovlev, Andrey; Jaxybulatov, Kayrly

    2013-08-01

    We present the results of time-dependent local earthquake tomography for the Kluchevskoy group of volcanoes in Kamchatka, Russia. We consider the time period from 1999 to 2009, which covers several stages of activity of Kluchevskoy and Bezymianny volcanoes. The results are supported by synthetic tests that recover a common 3D model based on data corresponding to different time windows. Throughout the period, we observe a robust feature below 25 km depth with anomalously high Vp/Vs values (up to 2.2). We interpret this feature as a channel bringing deep mantle materials with high fluid and melt content to the bottom of the crust. This mantle channel directly or indirectly determines the activity of all volcanoes of the Kluchevskoy group. In the crust, we model complex structure that varies over time. During the pre-eruptive period, we detected two levels of potential magma storage: one in the middle crust at 10-12 km depth and one close to the surface just below Kluchevskoy volcano. In 2005, a year of powerful eruptions of Kluchevskoy and Besymiyanny volcanoes, we observe a general increase in Vp/Vs throughout the crust. In the relaxation period following the eruption, the Vp/Vs values are generally low, and no strong anomalous zones in the crust are observed. We propose that very rapid variations in Vp/Vs are most likely due to abrupt changes in the stress and deformation states, which cause fracturing and the active transport of fluids. These fluids drive more fracturing in a positive feedback system that ultimately leads to eruption. We envision the magma reservoirs beneath the Kluchevskoy group as sponge-structured volumes that may quickly change the content of the molten phases as fluids pulse rapidly through the system.

  5. [The demographic transition in Latin America and Europe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavala De Cosio, M E

    1992-12-01

    This work describes and analyzes the "European model of demographic transition" and compares it to the fertility transition in Latin America, arguing that two different types of demographic transition coexist in Latin America. Chesnais has defined 3 principal postulates of the theory of demographic transition that he believes are universally valid: the precedence in time of mortality decline; the occurrence of reproductive transition in 2 phases, limitation of marriages followed by limitation of births; and the influence of economic growth on the initiation of the secular fertiilty decline. This work is largely limited to discussion of the first 2 postulates. In all the European transitions analyzed, mortality has declined before the occurrence of fertility changes. Exceptions cited in the literature have probably been caused by omissions or other problems in the data. The level of mortality at the beginning of the transition and the rate of decline differ, giving unique character to each transition. Imbalances resulting from mortality decline are at the root of modern fertility transitions. The French demographic transition was distinguished by early appearance of birth limitation by married couples, as part of the regulation of population growth. In the rest of Europe, during the pretransitional period, the traditional system of reproduction was regulated primarily by control of nuptiality. Only at a second stage was marital fertiity controlled, when limitation of marriage was no longer sufficient or had exceeded the limits of social acceptability. All countries of Northern and Western Europe recorded increased proportions definitively single as the demographic situation began to change, until the moment when couples began to limit births. The demographic transition in Latin America began at the end of the 19th century, with mortality decline. Fertility increased initially in Latin America as it had in Europe and for the same reasons, but the impact was greater

  6. Hispanic Demographics: Looking Ahead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKay, Emily G.

    This paper provides an overview of the current socioeconomic characteristics of Hispanics in the United States, and suggests factors of particular significance in projecting future Hispanic demographics and their implications for the Hispanic community and the broader American population. Hispanics are the second largest minority group and more…

  7. [Israel: the demographic stake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dussault, G

    1984-01-01

    A review of trends in Jewish migration to and from Israel from the late nineteenth century to the present day is provided. Consideration is also given to Arab migration and to the demographic implications of Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

  8. The Cuban-American Transition: Demographic Changes Drive Ideological Changes* La transición Cubano-Americana: Cambios demográficos frente a cambios ideológicos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo J. Grenier

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Cuban-Americans are changing their attitudes about many of the key components of current US/ Cuba policy. The paper explores some of the social forces creating the patterns associated with the changing attitudes. Based on the data from the 2014 Cuba Poll, a descriptive analysis of relationships among key demographic variables uncovers compelling patterns associated with the ideological shift occurring in the population. Specifically, the patterns associated with ideology shifts and time of arrival of the migrant as well as his/her age and political party preference are explored. The paper makes clear that the new arrivals to Miami, as well as the younger Cubans, are significantly more interested in normalizing relations with the home country. Unfortunately, a large majority of the new arrivals (migrating since 1995, are not citizens and therefore not able to participate in the electoral processes that shape U.S. policy towards the island. Los cubano-americanos están cambiando sus actitudes acerca de muchos de los componentes clave de la política actual de Estados Unidos hacia Cuba. El artículo explora algunas de las fuerzas sociales que crean los patrones asociados a esas actitudes cambiantes. En base a los datos del 2014 Cuba Poll, un análisis descriptivo de las relaciones entre las variables demográficas clave, el texto descubre patrones de peso asociados con el cambio ideológico que ocurre en la población. En concreto, patrones asociados con los cambios y el tiempo de llegada de los migrantes, así como su edad y preferencia de partido político o de ideología. El documento deja claro que las personas recién llegadas a Miami, así como los jóvenes cubanos, están significativamente más interesados en la normalización de las relaciones con su país de origen. Por desgracia, la gran mayoría de los recién llegados (desde 1995, no son ciudadanos estadounidenses y, por tanto, no pueden participar en los procesos electorales que dan

  9. A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon

    2012-01-01

    Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...

  10. CN Jet Morphology and the Very Rapidly Changing Rotation Period of Comet 41P/Tuttle-Giacobini-Kresak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleicher, David G.; Eisner, Nora; Knight, Matthew M.; Thirouin, Audrey

    2017-10-01

    In the first half of 2017, Comet 41P/Tuttle-Giacobini-Kresak had its best apparition since its first discovery in 1858, remaining within 0.15 AU of Earth for three weeks and within 0.20 AU over a two month interval. These circumstances allowed us to study its coma morphology in search of possible jets, whose appearance and motion as a function of time would yield the rotation period and, with appropriate modeling, the pole orientation of the nucleus and source location(s). Imaging was obtained on a total of 45 nights between February 16 and July 2, using Lowell Observatory's 4.3-m Discovery Channel Telescope, the Hall 1.1-m telescope, and the robotic 0.8-m telescope. All narrowband CN images exhibit either one or two gas jets, and on most nights both jets appear as partial spirals with a clockwise rotation. Only a slow evolution of the jet morphology took place from mid-March to early June, presumably due to viewing geometry changes coupled with seasonal changes. Our coverage in late March was sufficient to rule out aliases of the rotation period, and further revealed a rapidly increasing period from about 24 hr to about 27 hr at the end of the month (Knight et al. 2017, CBET 4377). This rate of increase is roughly consistent with the solution of 19.9 hr found by Farnham et al. (2017, CBET 4375) in early March. Images from April 15 to May 4 yield an accelerating change in periods, passing 48 hr approximately on April 28. This is the fastest rate of change ever measured for a comet nucleus. These and other results, including those from Monte Carlo jet modeling just begun by us, will be presented.These studies were supported by NASA Planetary Astronomy grant NNX14AG81G and the Marcus Cometary Research Fund.

  11. Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William B Monahan

    Full Text Available The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus. Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004 further shows that: (i existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced

  12. Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

    2012-12-01

    There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4)