Polar bear and walrus response to the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice

Science.gov (United States)

Oakley, K.; Whalen, M.; Douglas, David C.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Atwood, Todd C.; Jay, C.

2012-01-01

The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to positive climate feedbacks associated with loss of snow and ice. One highly visible consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades - a decline projected to continue and result in ice-free summers likely as soon as 2030. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) and the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are dependent on sea ice over the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean's marginal seas. The continental shelves are shallow regions with high biological productivity, supporting abundant marine life within the water column and on the sea floor. Polar bears use sea ice as a platform for hunting ice seals; walruses use sea ice as a resting platform between dives to forage for clams and other bottom-dwelling invertebrates. How have sea ice changes affected polar bears and walruses? How will anticipated changes affect them in the future?

Historical and contemporary imagery to assess ecosystem change on the Arctic coastal plain of northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Tape, Ken D.; Pearce, John M.; Walworth, Dennis; Meixell, Brandt W.; Fondell, Tom F.; Gustine, David D.; Flint, Paul L.; Hupp, Jerry W.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Ward, David H.

2014-01-01

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska is a complex landscape of lakes, streams, and wetlands scattered across low-relief tundra that is underlain by permafrost. This region of the Arctic has experienced a warming trend over the past three decades leading to thawing of on-shore permafrost and the disappearance of sea ice at unprecedented rates. The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) research initiative was developed to investigate and forecast these rapid changes in the physical environment of the Arctic, and the associated changes to wildlife populations, in order to inform key management decisions by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Forecasting future wildlife responses to changes in the Arctic can benefit greatly from historical records that inform what changes have already occurred. Several Arctic wildlife and plant species have already responded to climatic and physical changes to the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. Thus, we located historical aerial imagery to improve our understanding of recent habitat changes and the associated response to such changes by wildlife populations.

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maslowski, Wieslaw [Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (United States)

2016-10-17

This project aims to develop, apply and evaluate a regional Arctic System model (RASM) for enhanced decadal predictions. Its overarching goal is to advance understanding of the past and present states of arctic climate and to facilitate improvements in seasonal to decadal predictions. In particular, it will focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The project will also address modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change in a region of the Earth that is: (i) a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification and (ii) which is undergoing environmental transitions not seen in instrumental records. RASM will readily allow the addition of other earth system components, such as ecosystem or biochemistry models, thus allowing it to facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts. As such, RASM is expected to become a foundation for more complete Arctic System models and part of a model hierarchy important for improving climate modeling and predictions.

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

2009-01-01

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon�

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Public Perceptions of Arctic Change

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, L.

2014-12-01

What does the general US public know, or think they know, about Arctic change? Two broad nationwide surveys in 2006 and 2010 addressed this topic in general terms, before and after the International Polar Year (IPY). Since then a series of representative national or statewide surveys have carried this research farther. The new surveys employ specific questions that assess public knowledge of basic Arctic facts, along with perceptions about the possible consequences of future Arctic change. Majorities know that late-summer Arctic sea ice area has declined compared with 30 years ago, although substantial minorities -- lately increasing -- believe instead that it has now recovered to historical levels. Majorities also believe that, if the Arctic warms in the future, this will have major effects on the weather where they live. Their expectation of local impacts from far-away changes suggests a degree of global thinking. On the other hand, most respondents do poorly when asked whether melting Arctic sea ice, melting Greenland/Antarctic land ice, or melting Himalayan glaciers could have more effect on sea level. Only 30% knew or guessed the right answer to this question. Similarly, only 33% answered correctly on a simple geography quiz: whether the North Pole could best be described as ice a few feet or yards thick floating over a deep ocean, ice more than a mile thick over land, or a rocky, mountainous landscape. Close analysis of response patterns suggests that people often construct Arctic "knowledge" on items such as sea ice increase/decrease from their more general ideology or worldview, such as their belief (or doubt) that anthropogenic climate change is real. When ideology or worldviews provide no guidance, as on the North Pole or sealevel questions, the proportion of accurate answers is no better than chance. These results show at least casual public awareness and interest in Arctic change, unfortunately not well grounded in knowledge. Knowledge problems seen on

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Corell, Robert W

2006-06-01

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.

Relevance of hydro-climatic change projection and monitoring for assessment of water cycle changes in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

2011-06-01

Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

Arctic action against climatic changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njaastad, Birgit

2000-01-01

The articles describes efforts to map the climatic changes in the Arctic regions through the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Project which is a joint venture between eight Arctic countries: Denmark, Canada, the USA, Russia, Finland, Sweden and Norway. The project deals with the consequences of the changes such as the UV radiation due to diminishing ozone layers. The aims are: Evaluate and integrate existing knowledge in the field and evaluate and predict the consequences particularly on the environment both in the present and the future and produce reliable and useful information in order to aid the decision-making processes

Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Changes and Impacts (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

The extent of springtime Arctic perennial sea ice, important to preconditioning summer melt and to polar sunrise photochemistry, continues its precipitous reduction in the last decade marked by a record low in 2012, as the Bromine, Ozone, and Mercury Experiment (BROMEX) was conducted around Barrow, Alaska, to investigate impacts of sea ice reduction on photochemical processes, transport, and distribution in the polar environment. In spring 2013, there was further loss of perennial sea ice, as it was not observed in the ocean region adjacent to the Alaskan north coast, where there was a stretch of perennial sea ice in 2012 in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea. In contrast to the rapid and extensive loss of sea ice in the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has a trend of a slight increase in the past three decades. Given the significant variability in time and in space together with uncertainties in satellite observations, the increasing trend of Antarctic sea ice may arguably be considered as having a low confidence level; however, there was no overall reduction of Antarctic sea ice extent anywhere close to the decreasing rate of Arctic sea ice. There exist publications presenting various factors driving changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. After a short review of these published factors, new observations and atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and geological mechanisms contributed to different behaviors of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic are presented. The contribution from of hydrologic factors may provide a linkage to and enhance thermal impacts from lower latitudes. While geological factors may affect the sensitivity of sea ice response to climate change, these factors can serve as the long-term memory in the system that should be exploited to improve future projections or predictions of sea ice changes. Furthermore, similarities and differences in chemical impacts of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes are discussed. Understanding sea ice changes and

Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System

Science.gov (United States)

Pundsack, J. W.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Hinzman, L. D.

2009-12-01

There are several notable gaps in our current level of understanding of Arctic hydrological systems. At the same time, rapidly emerging data sets, technologies, and modeling resources provide us with an unprecedented opportunity to move substantially forward. The Arctic Community-Wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program (Arctic-CHAMP), funded by NSF/ARCSS, was established to initiate a major effort to improve our current monitoring of water cycle variables, and to foster collaboration with the many relevant U.S. and international arctic research initiatives. These projects, funded under ARCSS through the ‘Freshwater Integration (FWI) study’, links CHAMP, the Arctic/Subarctic Ocean Fluxes (ASOF) Programme, and SEARCH. As part of the overall synthesis and integration efforts of the NSF-ARCSS Freshwater Integration (FWI) study, the program carried-out a major International Synthesis Capstone Workshop in Fall 2009 as an International Polar Year (IPY) affiliated meeting. The workshop, "Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System,” was held 30 September to 4 October 2009 in Stockholm at the Beijer Auditorium of the Royal Swedish Academy. The workshop was sponsored by the NSF-ARCSS Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office (City College of New York / Univ. of New Hampshire), the International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), and the International Arctic Research Center (IARC; Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks). The overarching goals of the meeting were to stage a post-IPY lessons-learned workshop with co-equal numbers of FWI, IPY, and ICARP-II researchers, using insights from recent scientific findings, data, and strategies to afford synthesis. The workshop aimed to: (1) take stock of recent advances in our understanding of changes in the Arctic hydrological system; (2) identify key remaining research gaps / unanswered questions; and (3) gather insight on where to focus future research efforts/initiatives (nationally and

Detecting and Understanding Changing Arctic Carbon Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhwiler, L.

2017-12-01

Warming in the Arctic has proceeded faster than anyplace on Earth. Our current understanding of biogeochemistry suggests that we can expect feedbacks between climate and carbon in the Arctic. Changes in terrestrial fluxes of carbon can be expected as the Arctic warms, and the vast stores of organic carbon frozen in Arctic soils could be mobilized to the atmosphere, with possible significant impacts on global climate. Quantifying trends in Arctic carbon exchanges is important for policymaking because greater reductions in anthropogenic emissions may be required to meet climate goals. Observations of greenhouse gases in the Arctic and globally have been collected for several decades. Analysis of this data does not currently support significantly changed Arctic emissions of CH4, however it is difficult to detect changes in Arctic emissions because of transport from lower latitudes and large inter-annual variability. Unfortunately, current space-based remote sensing systems have limitations at Arctic latitudes. Modeling systems can help untangle the Arctic budget of greenhouse gases, but they are dependent on underlying prior fluxes, wetland distributions and global anthropogenic emissions. Also, atmospheric transport models may have significant biases and errors. For example, unrealistic near-surface stability can lead to underestimation of emissions in atmospheric inversions. We discuss our current understanding of the Arctic carbon budget from both top-down and bottom-up approaches. We show that current atmospheric inversions agree well on the CH4 budget. On the other hand, bottom-up models vary widely in their predictions of natural emissions, with some models predicting emissions too large to be accommodated by the budget implied by global observations. Large emissions from the shallow Arctic ocean are also inconsistent with atmospheric observations. We also discuss the sensitivity of the current atmospheric network to what is likely small, gradual increases in

Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory: A Virtual Organization for Transformative Research and Education on a Changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Warnick, W. K.; Wiggins, H. V.; Hinzman, L.; Holland, M.; Murray, M. S.; Vörösmarty, C.; Loring, A. J.

2008-12-01

About the Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory concept, developed through a series of NSF-funded workshops and town hall meetings, is envisioned as a cyber-enabled, technical, organizational, and social-synthesis framework to foster: • Interactions among interdisciplinary experts and stakeholders • Integrated data analysis and modeling activities • Training and development of the arctic science community • Delivery of outreach, education, and policy-relevant resources Scientific Rationale The rapid rate of arctic change and our incomplete understanding of the arctic system present the arctic community with a grand scientific challenge and three related issues. First, a wealth of observations now exists as disconnected data holdings, which must be coordinated and synthesized to fully detect and assess arctic change. Second, despite great strides in the development of arctic system simulations, we still have incomplete capabilities for modeling and predicting the behavior of the system as a whole. Third, policy-makers, stakeholders, and the public are increasingly making demands of the science community for forecasts and guidance in mitigation and adaptation strategies. Collaboratory Components The Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory is organized around four integrated functions that will be established virtually as a distributed set of activities, but also with the advantage of existing facilities that could sponsor some of the identified activities. Community Network "Meeting Grounds:" The Collaboratory will link distributed individuals, organizations, and activities to enable collaboration and foster new research initiatives. Specific activities could include: an expert directory, social networking services, and virtual and face-to-face meetings. Data Integration, Synthesis, and Modeling Activities: The Collaboratory will utilize appropriate tools to enable the combination of data and models. Specific activities could include: a web

The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, James D; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

2014-01-01

The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts. (letter)

The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C

2013-01-01

Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Bigras, S. C.

2009-12-01

It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

Rapid Environmental Change Drives Increased Land Use by an Arctic Marine Predator.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Todd C Atwood

Full Text Available In the Arctic Ocean's southern Beaufort Sea (SB, the length of the sea ice melt season (i.e., period between the onset of sea ice break-up in summer and freeze-up in fall has increased substantially since the late 1990s. Historically, polar bears (Ursus maritimus of the SB have mostly remained on the sea ice year-round (except for those that came ashore to den, but recent changes in the extent and phenology of sea ice habitat have coincided with evidence that use of terrestrial habitat is increasing. We characterized the spatial behavior of polar bears spending summer and fall on land along Alaska's north coast to better understand the nexus between rapid environmental change and increased use of terrestrial habitat. We found that the percentage of radiocollared adult females from the SB subpopulation coming ashore has tripled over 15 years. Moreover, we detected trends of earlier arrival on shore, increased length of stay, and later departure back to sea ice, all of which were related to declines in the availability of sea ice habitat over the continental shelf and changes to sea ice phenology. Since the late 1990s, the mean duration of the open-water season in the SB increased by 36 days, and the mean length of stay on shore increased by 31 days. While on shore, the distribution of polar bears was influenced by the availability of scavenge subsidies in the form of subsistence-harvested bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus remains aggregated at sites along the coast. The declining spatio-temporal availability of sea ice habitat and increased availability of human-provisioned resources are likely to result in increased use of land. Increased residency on land is cause for concern given that, while there, bears may be exposed to a greater array of risk factors including those associated with increased human activities.

Greenland and the international politics of a changing arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Greenland and the International Politics of a Changing Arctic examines the international politics of semi-independent Greenland in a changing and increasingly globalised Arctic. Without sovereign statehood, but with increased geopolitical importance, independent foreign policy ambitions......, and a solidified self-image as a trailblazer for Arctic indigenous peoples’ rights, Greenland is making its mark on the Arctic and is in turn affected – and empowered – by Arctic developments. The chapters in this collection analyse how a distinct Greenlandic foreign policy identity shapes political ends and means...... for regional change in the Arctic. This is the first comprehensive and interdisciplinary examination of Greenland’s international relations and how they are connected to wider Arctic politics. It will be essential reading for students and scholars interested in Arctic governance and security, international...

Changing geo-political realities in the Arctic region

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Camilla T. N.

2014-01-01

This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region.......This article analyzes and discusses how Denmark seeks to manage the changing geopolitical realities in the Arctic region specifically focusing on how Denmark seeks to manage its relations with China in the Arctic region....

Detecting Arctic Climate Change Using Koeppen Climate Classification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, M. [Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (United States); Overland, J.E. [NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, Washington (United States)

2004-11-01

Ecological impacts of the recent warming trend in the Arctic are already noted as changes in tree line and a decrease in tundra area with the replacement of ground cover by shrubs in northern Alaska and several locations in northern Eurasia. The potential impact of vegetation changes to feedbacks on the atmospheric climate system is substantial because of the large land area impacted and the multi-year persistence of the vegetation cover. Satellite NDVI estimates beginning in 1981 and the Koeppen climate classification, which relates surface types to monthly mean air temperatures from 1901 onward, track these changes on an Arctic-wide basis. Temperature fields from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU analysis serve as proxy for vegetation cover over the century. A downward trend in the coverage of tundra group for the first 40 yr of the twentieth century was followed by two increases during 1940s and early 1960s, and then a rapid decrease in the last 20 yr. The decrease of tundra group in the 1920-40 period was localized, mostly over Scandinavia; whereas the decrease since 1990 is primarily pan-Arctic, but largest in NW Canada, and eastern and coastal Siberia. The decrease in inferred tundra coverage from 1980 to 2000 was 1.4 x 106 km{sup 2}, or about a 20% reduction in tundra area based on the CRU analyses. This rate of decrease is confirmed by the NDVI data. These tundra group changes in the last 20 yr are accompanied by increase in the area of both the boreal and temperate groups. During the tundra group decrease in the first half of the century boreal group area also decreased while temperate group area increased. The calculated minimum coverage of tundra group from both the Koeppen classification and NDVI indicates that the impact of warming on the spatial coverage of the tundra group in the 1990s is the strongest in the century, and will have multi-decadal consequences for the Arctic.

The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.

Building Resilience and Adaptation to Manage Arctic Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chapin, F. Stuart III [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; Hoel, Michael [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics; Carpenter, Steven R. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI, (US). Center for Limnology] (and others)

2006-06-15

Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socio- ecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.

Arctic-COLORS (Coastal Land Ocean Interactions in the Arctic) - a NASA field campaign scoping study to examine land-ocean interactions in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Hernes, P.; Tzortziou, M.; Salisbury, J.; Mannino, A.; Matrai, P.; Friedrichs, M. A.; Del Castillo, C. E.

2014-12-01

The Arctic region is warming faster than anywhere else on the planet, triggering rapid social and economic changes and impacting both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Yet our understanding of critical processes and interactions along the Arctic land-ocean interface is limited. Arctic-COLORS is a Field Campaign Scoping Study funded by NASA's Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program that aims to improve understanding and prediction of land-ocean interactions in a rapidly changing Arctic coastal zone, and assess vulnerability, response, feedbacks and resilience of coastal ecosystems, communities and natural resources to current and future pressures. Specific science objectives include: - Quantify lateral fluxes to the arctic inner shelf from (i) rivers and (ii) the outer shelf/basin that affect biology, biodiversity, biogeochemistry (i.e. organic matter, nutrients, suspended sediment), and the processing rates of these constituents in coastal waters. - Evaluate the impact of the thawing of Arctic permafrost within the river basins on coastal biology, biodiversity and biogeochemistry, including various rates of community production and the role these may play in the health of regional economies. - Assess the impact of changing Arctic landfast ice and coastal sea ice dynamics. - Establish a baseline for comparison to future change, and use state-of-the-art models to assess impacts of environmental change on coastal biology, biodiversity and biogeochemistry. A key component of Arctic-COLORS will be the integration of satellite and field observations with coupled physical-biogeochemical models for predicting impacts of future pressures on Arctic, coastal ocean, biological processes and biogeochemical cycles. Through interagency and international collaborations, and through the organization of dedicated workshops, town hall meetings and presentations at international conferences, the scoping study engages the broader scientific community and invites participation of

Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Brigham, L. W.

2011-12-01

Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

The Contribution to Arctic Climate Change from Countries in the Arctic Council

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, T.; MacCracken, M. C.

2013-12-01

The conventional accounting frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used today, established under the Kyoto Protocol 25 years ago, exclude short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and do not include regional effects on the climate. However, advances in climate science now suggest that mitigation of SLCPs can reduce up to 50% of global warming by 2050. It has also become apparent that regions such as the Arctic have experienced a much greater degree of anthropogenic warming than the globe as a whole, and that efforts to slow this warming could benefit the larger effort to slow climate change around the globe. A draft standard for life cycle assessment (LCA), LEO-SCS-002, being developed under the American National Standards Institute process, has integrated the most recent climate science into a unified framework to account for emissions of all radiatively significant GHGs and SLCPs. This framework recognizes four distinct impacts to the oceans and climate caused by GHGs and SLCPs: Global Climate Change; Arctic Climate Change; Ocean Acidification; and Ocean Warming. The accounting for Arctic Climate Change, the subject of this poster, is based upon the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential, which considers the incremental change to the Arctic surface temperature resulting from an emission of a GHG or SLCP. Results are evaluated using units of mass of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which can be used by a broad array of stakeholders, including scientists, consumers, policy makers, and NGOs. This poster considers the contribution to Arctic Climate Change from emissions of GHGs and SLCPs from the eight member countries of the Arctic Council; the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Of this group of countries, the United States was the largest contributor to Arctic Climate Change in 2011, emitting 9600 MMT CO2e. This includes a gross warming of 11200 MMT CO2e (caused by GHGs, black and brown carbon, and warming effects

Past Changes in Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems, Climate and UV Radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Chernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)

2004-11-01

At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 deg C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the 'Little Ice Age' spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic

Arctic adaptation and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

1994-01-01

The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

Changes in aerosol properties during spring-summer period in the Arctic troposphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.-C. Engvall

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The change in aerosol properties during the transition from the more polluted spring to the clean summer in the Arctic troposphere was studied. A six-year data set of observations from Ny-Ålesund on Svalbard, covering the months April through June, serve as the basis for the characterisation of this time period. In addition four-day-back trajectories were used to describe air mass histories. The observed transition in aerosol properties from an accumulation-mode dominated distribution to an Aitken-mode dominated distribution is discussed with respect to long-range transport and influences from natural and anthropogenic sources of aerosols and pertinent trace gases. Our study shows that the air-mass transport is an important factor modulating the physical and chemical properties observed. However, the air-mass transport cannot alone explain the annually repeated systematic and rather rapid change in aerosol properties, occurring within a limited time window of approximately 10 days. With a simplified phenomenological model, which delivers the nucleation potential for new-particle formation, we suggest that the rapid shift in aerosol microphysical properties between the Arctic spring and summer is mainly driven by the incoming solar radiation in concert with transport of precursor gases and changes in condensational sink.

Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Morison, James; Kwok, Ron; Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia; Alkire, Matt; Rigor, Ignatius; Andersen, Roger; Steele, Mike

2012-01-04

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High--a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure--which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.

Arctic ecosystem responses to a warming climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Lars O.

sheet, loss of multiannual sea-ice and significant advances in snowmelt days. The biotic components of the arctic ecosystem have also been affected by the rapid changes in climate, for instance resulting in the collapse of the collared lemming cycle, advances in spring flowering and changes in the intra...... biotic interactions. Hence, through the use of up-to-date multivariate statistical tools, this Ph.D. study has been concerned with analyzing how the observed rapid climate changes are affecting the arctic ecosystems. The primary tool has been the implementation of structural equation modeling (SEM) which....... Additionally, the study demonstrated that climate effects had distinct direct and indirect effects on different trophic levels, indicating cascading effects of climate through the trophic system. Results suggest that the Arctic is being significantly affected by the observed climate changes and depending...

Arctic Research Plan: FY2017-2021

Science.gov (United States)

Starkweather, Sandy; Jeffries, Martin O; Stephenson, Simon; Anderson, Rebecca D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Loehman, Rachel A.; von Biela, Vanessa R.

2016-01-01

The United States is an Arctic nation—Americans depend on the Arctic for biodiversity and climate regulation and for natural resources. America’s Arctic—Alaska—is at the forefront of rapid climate, environmental, and socio-economic changes that are testing the resilience and sustainability of communities and ecosystems. Research to increase fundamental understanding of these changes is needed to inform sound, science-based decision- and policy-making and to develop appropriate solutions for Alaska and the Arctic region as a whole. Created by an Act of Congress in 1984, and since 2010 a subcommittee of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) in the Executive Office of the President, the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) plays a critical role in advancing scientific knowledge and understanding of the changing Arctic and its impacts far beyond the boundaries of the Arctic. Comprising 14 Federal agencies, offices, and departments, IARPC is responsible for the implementation of a 5-year Arctic Research Plan in consultation with the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, the Governor of the State of Alaska, residents of the Arctic, the private sector, and public interest groups.

Arctic security in an age of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kraska, James (ed.)

2013-03-01

Publisher review: This book examines Arctic defense policy and military security from the perspective of all eight Arctic states. In light of climate change and melting ice in the Arctic Ocean, Canada, Russia, Denmark (Greenland), Norway and the United States, as well as Iceland, Sweden and Finland, are grappling with an emerging Arctic security paradigm. This volume brings together the world's most seasoned Arctic political-military experts from Europe and North America to analyze how Arctic nations are adapting their security postures to accommodate increased shipping, expanding naval presence, and energy and mineral development in the polar region. The book analyzes the ascent of Russia as the first 'Arctic superpower', the growing importance of polar security for NATO and the Nordic states, and the increasing role of Canada and the United States in the region.(Author)

Arctic indigenous peoples as representations and representatives of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Martello, Marybeth Long

2008-06-01

Recent scientific findings, as presented in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), indicate that climate change in the Arctic is happening now, at a faster rate than elsewhere in the world, and with major implications for peoples of the Arctic (especially indigenous peoples) and the rest of the planet. This paper examines scientific and political representations of Arctic indigenous peoples that have been central to the production and articulation of these claims. ACIA employs novel forms and strategies of representation that reflect changing conceptual models and practices of global change science and depict indigenous peoples as expert, exotic, and at-risk. These portrayals emerge alongside the growing political activism of Arctic indigenous peoples who present themselves as representatives or embodiments of climate change itself as they advocate for climate change mitigation policies. These mutually constitutive forms of representation suggest that scientific ways of seeing the global environment shape and are shaped by the public image and voice of global citizens. Likewise, the authority, credibility, and visibility of Arctic indigenous activists derive, in part, from their status as at-risk experts, a status buttressed by new scientific frameworks and methods that recognize and rely on the local experiences and knowledges of indigenous peoples. Analyses of these relationships linking scientific and political representations of Arctic climate change build upon science and technology studies (STS) scholarship on visualization, challenge conventional notions of globalization, and raise questions about power and accountability in global climate change research.

Biodiversity, Distributions and Adaptations of Arctic Species in the Context of Environmental Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Callaghan, Terry V. [Abisko Scientific Research Station, Abisko (Sweden); Bjoern, Lars Olof [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Cell and Organism Biology; Chernov, Yuri [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). A.N. Severtsov Inst. of Evolutionary Morphology and Animal Ecology] (and others)

2004-11-01

adapted to the Arctic's climate: some can metabolize at temperatures down to -39 deg C. Cyanobacteria and algae have a wide range of adaptive strategies that allow them to avoid, or at least minimize UV injury. Microorganisms can tolerate most environmental conditions and they have short generation times which can facilitate rapid adaptation to new environments. In contrast, Arctic plant and animal species are very likely to change their distributions rather than evolve significantly in response to warming.

The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.

2015-12-01

The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

ARCTOX: a pan-Arctic sampling network to track mercury contamination across Arctic marine food webs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fort, Jerome; Helgason, Halfdan; Amelineau, Francoise

and is still a source of major environmental concerns. In that context, providing a large-scale and comprehensive understanding of the Arctic marine food-web contamination is essential to better apprehend impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of Arctic species and humans to Hg....... In 2015, an international sampling network (ARCTOX) has been established, allowing the collection seabird samples all around the Arctic. Seabirds are indeed good indicators of Hg contamination of marine food webs at large spatial scale. Gathering researchers from 10 countries, ARCTOX allowed......Arctic marine ecosystems are threatened by new risks of Hg contamination under the combined effects of climate change and human activities. Rapid change of the cryosphere might for instance release large amounts of Hg trapped in sea-ice, permafrost and terrestrial glaciers over the last decades...

Future Arctic climate changes: Adaptation and mitigation time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Walsh, John E.; Stroeve, Julienne C.

2014-02-01

The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in midlatitudes. This is shown by increased temperatures, loss of summer sea ice, earlier snow melt, impacts on ecosystems, and increased economic access. Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by 75% since the 1980s. Long-lasting global anthropogenic forcing from carbon dioxide has increased over the previous decades and is anticipated to increase over the next decades. Temperature increases in response to greenhouse gases are amplified in the Arctic through feedback processes associated with shifts in albedo, ocean and land heat storage, and near-surface longwave radiation fluxes. Thus, for the next few decades out to 2040, continuing environmental changes in the Arctic are very likely, and the appropriate response is to plan for adaptation to these changes. For example, it is very likely that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally nearly sea ice free before 2050 and possibly within a decade or two, which in turn will further increase Arctic temperatures, economic access, and ecological shifts. Mitigation becomes an important option to reduce potential Arctic impacts in the second half of the 21st century. Using the most recent set of climate model projections (CMIP5), multimodel mean temperature projections show an Arctic-wide end of century increase of +13°C in late fall and +5°C in late spring for a business-as-usual emission scenario (RCP8.5) in contrast to +7°C in late fall and +3°C in late spring if civilization follows a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). Such temperature increases demonstrate the heightened sensitivity of the Arctic to greenhouse gas forcing.

The Arctic Coastal Erosion Problem

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frederick, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Matthew Anthony [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Craig A. [Integral Consulting Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-09-01

Permafrost-dominated coastlines in the Arctic are rapidly disappearing. Arctic coastal erosion rates in the United States have doubled since the middle of the twentieth century and appear to be accelerating. Positive erosion trends have been observed for highly-variable geomorphic conditions across the entire Arctic, suggesting a major (human-timescale) shift in coastal landscape evolution. Unfortunately, irreversible coastal land loss in this region poses a threat to native, industrial, scientific, and military communities. The Arctic coastline is vast, spanning more than 100,000 km across eight nations, ten percent of which is overseen by the United States. Much of area is inaccessible by all-season roads. People and infrastructure, therefore, are commonly located near the coast. The impact of the Arctic coastal erosion problem is widespread. Homes are being lost. Residents are being dispersed and their villages relocated. Shoreline fuel storage and delivery systems are at greater risk. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) operate research facilities along some of the most rapidly eroding sections of coast in the world. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is struggling to fortify coastal radar sites, operated to ensure national sovereignty in the air, against the erosion problem. Rapid alterations to the Arctic coastline are facilitated by oceanographic and geomorphic perturbations associated with climate change. Sea ice extent is declining, sea level is rising, sea water temperature is increasing, and permafrost state is changing. The polar orientation of the Arctic exacerbates the magnitude and rate of the environmental forcings that facilitate coastal land area loss. The fundamental mechanics of these processes are understood; their non-linear combination poses an extreme hazard. Tools to accurately predict Arctic coastal erosion do not exist. To obtain an accurate predictive model, a coupling of the influences of

Biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and responses to climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Michel, C.; Bluhm, B.; Gallucci, V.

2012-01-01

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing major changes in many of its fundamental physical constituents, from a shift from multi- to first-year ice, shorter ice-covered periods, increasing freshwater runoff and surface stratification, to warming and alteration in the distribution of water masses....... These changes have important impacts on the chemical and biological processes that are at the root of marine food webs, influencing their structure, function and biodiversity. Here we summarise current knowledge on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and provide an overview of fundamental factors...... that structure ecosystem biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean. We also discuss climateassociated effects on the biodiversity of Arctic marine ecosystems and discuss implications for the functioning of Arctic marine food webs. Based on the complexity and regional character of Arctic ecosystem reponses...

Engaging Local Communities in Arctic Observing Networks: A Collaborative Shoreline Change Risk WebGIS for Alaska's Arctic Slope Region

Science.gov (United States)

Brady, M.

2017-12-01

This study engaged local community stakeholders in Alaska's Arctic Slope Region to develop a web-based shoreline change risk geographic information system (WebGIS) in collaboration with the North Slope Borough and its residents. The value of the effort includes rich spatial documentation of local risks across the vast, remote, and rapidly changing shoreline, and identification of local manager information needs to direct WebGIS development. The study advances our understanding of shoreline change problems from the perspective of local Arctic communities beyond municipal impacts while building decision support. Over fifty local residents in three communities with collective coastal knowledge that extends across the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge shared their perspectives on hard copy maps. Sixteen managers provided usability perceptions of a beta WebGIS with shoreline change susceptibility information summarized at relevant asset locations such as subsistence camps. The hard copy maps with 300 "problem places" were digitized for analysis, which revealed problems across the coastline, especially challenges to boating for subsistence hunting such as shoaling cutting off access and creating hazards. The usability workshop revealed specific information needs including the need to monitor impacts at decommissioned national defense radar sites repurposed by locals to centralize oil and gas activity. These results were analyzed using an Instructional Systems Design (ISD) framework consisting of front-end and formative WebGIS evaluation phases. The front-end evaluation is the local input on hard copy maps, which provided local verification of coastal risks. The formative evaluation is the usability workshop with managers, which informed WebGIS development while promoting user buy-in. In terms of product and process, the local knowledge and information needs collected are significant because they establish local engagement with the

Changing seasonality of Arctic hydrology disrupts key biotic linkages in Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Deegan, L.; MacKenzie, C.; Peterson, B. J.; Fishscape Project

2011-12-01

Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) is an important circumpolar species that provide a model system for understanding the impacts of changing seasonality on arctic ecosystem function. Grayling serve as food for other biota, including lake trout, birds and humans, and act as top-down controls in stream ecosystems. In Arctic tundra streams, grayling spend their summers in streams but are obligated to move back into deep overwintering lakes in the fall. Climatic change that affects the seasonality of river hydrology could have a significant impact on grayling populations: grayling may leave overwintering lakes sooner in the spring and return later in the fall due to a longer open water season, but the migration could be disrupted by drought due to increased variability in discharge. In turn, a shorter overwintering season may impact lake trout dynamics in the lakes, which may rely on the seasonal inputs of stream nutrients in the form of migrating grayling into these oligotrophic lakes. To assess how shifting seasonality of Arctic river hydrology may disrupt key trophic linkages within and between lake and stream components of watersheds on the North Slope of the Brooks Mountain Range, Alaska, we have undertaken new work on grayling and lake trout population and food web dynamics. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags coupled with stream-width antenna units to monitor grayling movement across Arctic tundra watersheds during the summer, and into overwintering habitat in the fall. Results indicate that day length may prime grayling migration readiness, but that flooding events are likely the cue grayling use to initiate migration in to overwintering lakes. Many fish used high discharge events in the stream as an opportunity to move into lakes. Stream and lake derived stable isotopes also indicate that lake trout rely on these seasonally transported inputs of stream nutrients for growth. Thus, changes in the seasonality of river hydrology may have broader

Wildlife health in a rapidly changing North: focus on avian disease

Science.gov (United States)

Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Pearce, John M.; Handel, Colleen M.

2014-01-01

Climate-related environmental changes have increasingly been linked to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. The Arctic is facing a major ecological transition that is expected to substantially affect animal and human health. Changes in phenology or environmental conditions that result from climate warming may promote novel species assemblages as host and pathogen ranges expand to previously unoccupied areas. Recent evidence from the Arctic and subarctic suggests an increase in the spread and prevalence of some wildlife diseases, but baseline data necessary to detect and verify such changes are still lacking. Wild birds are undergoing rapid shifts in distribution and have been implicated in the spread of wildlife and zoonotic diseases. Here, we review evidence of current and projected changes in the abundance and distribution of avian diseases and outline strategies for future research. We discuss relevant climatic and environmental factors, emerging host–pathogen contact zones, the relationship between host condition and immune function, and potential wildlife and human health outcomes in northern regions.

Decadal Climate Change in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, A Representative Area of the Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minghu Ding

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In recent decades, global warming hiatus/slowdown has attracted considerable attention and has been strongly debated. Many studies suggested that the Arctic is undergoing rapid warming and significantly contributes to a continual global warming trend rather than a hiatus. In this study, we evaluated the climate changes of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, a representative location of the northern North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, based on observational records from 1975–2014. The results showed that the annual warming rate was four times higher than the global mean (+0.76 °C·decade−1 and was also much greater than Arctic average. Additionally, the warming trend of Ny-Ålesund started to slow down since 2005–2006, and our estimates showed that there is a 8–9 years-lagged, but significant, correlation between records of Ny-Ålesund and global HadCRUT4 datasets. This finding indicates that the Arctic was likely experiencing a hiatus pattern, which just appeared later than the low-mid latitudes due to transport processes of atmospheric circulations and ocean currents, heat storage effect of cryospheric components, multidecadal variability of Arctic cyclone activities, etc. This case study provides a new perspective on the global warming hiatus/slowdown debate.

SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change—A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary Arctic Research Program

Science.gov (United States)

Wiggins, H. V.; Eicken, H.; Fox, S. E.

2012-12-01

SEARCH is an interdisciplinary and interagency program that works with academic and government agency scientists to plan, conduct, and synthesize studies of arctic change. The vision of SEARCH is to provide scientific understanding of arctic environmental change to help society understand and respond to a rapidly changing Arctic. Towards this end, SEARCH: 1. Generates and synthesizes research findings and promotes arctic science and scientific discovery across disciplines and among agencies. 2. Identifies emerging issues in arctic environmental change. 3. Provides information resources to arctic stakeholders, policy-makers, and the public to help them respond to arctic environmental change. 4. Coordinates with national arctic science programs integral to SEARCH goals. 5. Facilitates research activities across local-to-global scales with stakeholder concerns incorporated from the start of the planning process. 6. Represents the U.S. arctic environmental change science community in international and global change research initiatives. Specific current activities include: Arctic Observing Network (AON) - coordinating a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring capabilities that will significantly advance our observations of arctic environmental conditions. Arctic Sea Ice Outlook ¬- an international effort that provides monthly summer reports synthesizing community estimates of the expected sea ice minimum. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook - a resource for Alaska Native subsistence hunters, coastal communities, and others that provides weekly reports with information on sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in Alaska waters. In April, the SEARCH Science Steering Committee (SSC) released a set of draft 5-year goals and objectives for review by the broader arctic science community. The goals and objectives will direct the SEARCH program in the next five years. The draft SEARCH goals focus on four areas: ice-diminished Arctic Ocean, warming

Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Torben Koenigk

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, Walter N.; Hovelsrud, Greta K.; van Oort, Bob E. H.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Michel, Christine; Haas, Christian; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Perovich, Donald K.;

Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: a case study from Arctic Bay, Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ford, J.D.; Smit, B.; Wandel, J. [University of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Department of Geography

2006-05-15

This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (author)

Climate change and zoonotic infections in the Russian Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Revich

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Climate change in the Russian Arctic is more pronounced than in any other part of the country. Between 1955 and 2000, the annual average air temperature in the Russian North increased by 1.2°C. During the same period, the mean temperature of upper layer of permafrost increased by 3°C. Climate change in Russian Arctic increases the risks of the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. This review presents data on morbidity rates among people, domestic animals and wildlife in the Russian Arctic, focusing on the potential climate related emergence of such diseases as tick-borne encephalitis, tularemia, brucellosis, leptospirosis, rabies, and anthrax.

Live from the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Warnick, W. K.; Haines-Stiles, G.; Warburton, J.; Sunwood, K.

2003-12-01

residents speak in eloquent terms of the changes they see around them, manifested in new patterns of vegetation, the melting of permafrost and the absence of game species that used to be abundant. Meanwhile, new satellites and more sophisticated sensors on the ground and in the ice, add scientific testimony that seems to support and even extend native perceptions. Live from the Arctic will unify both perspectives, and use todays most powerful and effective communications media to connect young people and general audiences all across America to researchers and communities living and working in the Arctic. During IPY there will be a level of interest in the Polar regions unprecedented in a generation. Live from the Arctic offers unique resources to satisfy that curiosity, and encourage active participation and engagement in understanding some of Earths most significant peoples, places and rapidly changing conditions.

Drivers of inter-annual variation and long-term change in High-Arctic spider species abundances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bowden, Joseph J.; Hansen, Oskar L. P.; Olsen, Kent

2018-01-01

Understanding how species abundances vary in space and time is a central theme in ecology, yet there are few long-term field studies of terrestrial invertebrate abundances and the determinants of their dynamics. This is particularly relevant in the context of rapid climate change occurring...... in the Arctic. Arthropods can serve as strong indicators of ecosystem change due to their sensitivity to increasing temperatures and other environmental variables. We used spider samples collected by pitfall trapping from three different habitats (fen, mesic and arid heath) in High-Arctic Greenland to assess...... interpretation of long-term trends. We used model selection to determine which climatic variables and/or previous years’ abundance best explained annual variation in species abundances over this period. We identified and used 28 566 adult spiders that comprised eight species. Most notably, the abundances of some...

Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe

2008-01-01

Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the Arctic presently is warmer than during the last 125,000 years, and it is very likely11The term "likelihood" is used here as in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). According to the definition in this rep...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...

Climate Change and China as a Global Emerging Regulatory Sea Power in the Arctic Ocean

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cassotta Pertoldi-Bianchi, Sandra; Hossain, Kamrul; Ren, Jingzheng

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change in the Arctic Ocean such as ice melting and ice retreat facilitates natural resources extraction. Arctic fossil fuel becomes the drivers of geopolitical changes in the Arctic Ocean. Climate change facilitates natural resource extractions and increases competition...... on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Arctic Council (AC) are taken into consideration under climate change effects, to assess how global legal frameworks and institutions can deal with China’s strategy in the Arctic Ocean. China’s is moving away from its role as “humble power” to one of “informal...... imperialistic” resulting in substantial impact on the Arctic and Antartic dynamism. Due to ice-melting, an easy access to natural resources, China’s Arctic strategy in the Arctic Ocean has reinforced its military martitime strategy and has profoundly changed its maritime military doctrine shifting from regional...

Arctic security and Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tamnes, Rolf

2013-03-01

Global warming is one of the most serious threats facing mankind. Many regions and countries will be affected, and there will be many losers. The earliest and most intense climatic changes are being experienced in the Arctic region. Arctic average temperature has risen at twice the rate of the global average in the past half century. These changes provide an early indication for the world of the environmental and societal significance of global warming. For that reason, the Arctic presents itself as an important scientific laboratory for improving our understanding of the causes and patterns of climate changes. The rapidly rising temperature threatens the Arctic ecosystem, but the human consequences seem to be far less dramatic there than in many other places in the world. According to the U.S. National Intelligence Council, Russia has the potential to gain the most from increasingly temperate weather, because its petroleum reserves become more accessible and because the opening of an Arctic waterway could provide economic and commercial advantages. Norway might also be fortunate. Some years ago, the Financial Times asked: #Left Double Quotation Mark#What should Norway do about the fact that global warming will make their climate more hospitable and enhance their financial situation, even as it inflicts damage on other parts of the world?#Right Double Quotation Mark#(Author)

Changing Conditions in the Arctic: An Analysis of 45 years of Tropospheric Ozone Measurements at Barrow Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

McClure-Begley, A.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Crepinsek, S.; Jefferson, A.; Emmons, L. K.; Oltmans, S. J.

2017-12-01

In order to understand the impact of climate on local bio-systems, understanding the changes to the atmospheric composition and processes in the Arctic boundary layer and free troposphere is imperative. In the Arctic, many conditions influence tropospheric ozone variability such as: seasonal halogen caused depletion events, long range transport of pollutants from mid-northern latitudes, compounds released from wildfires, and different meteorological conditions. The Barrow station in Utqiagvik, Alaska has collected continuous measurements of ground-level ozone since 1973. This unique long-term time series allows for analysis of the influence of a rapidly changing climate on ozone conditions in this region. Specifically, this study analyzes the frequency of enhanced ozone episodes over time and provides in depth analysis of periods of positive deviations from the expected conditions. To discern the contribution of different pollutant sources to observed ozone variability, co-located measurements of aerosols, carbon monoxide, and meteorological conditions are used. In addition, the NCAR Mozart-4/MOPITT Chemical Forecast model and NOAA Hysplit back-trajectory analysis provide information on transport patterns to the Arctic and confirmation of the emission sources that influenced the observed conditions. These anthropogenic influences on ozone variability in and below the boundary layer are essential for developing an understanding of the interaction of climate change and the bio-systems in the Arctic.

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

New views on changing Arctic vegetation

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Robert E.

2012-03-01

As climate changes, how will terrestrial vegetation respond? Because the fates of many biogeochemical, hydrological and economic cycles depend on vegetation, this question is fundamental to climate change science but extremely challenging to address. This is particularly true in the Arctic, where temperature change has been most acute globally (IPCC 2007) and where potential feedbacks to carbon, energy and hydrological cycles have important implications for the rest of the Earth system (Chapin et al 2000). It is well known that vegetation is tightly coupled to precipitation and temperature (Whittaker 1975), but predicting the response of vegetation to changes in climate involves much more than invoking the limitations of climate envelopes (Thuiller et al 2008). Models must also consider efficacy of dispersal, soil constraints, ecological interactions, possible CO2 fertilization impacts and the changing impact of other, more proximal anthropogenic effects such as pollution, disturbance, etc (Coops and Waring 2011, Lenihan et al 2008, Scheller and Mladenoff 2005). Given this complexity, a key test will be whether models can match empirical observations of changes that have already occurred. The challenge is finding empirical observations of change that are appropriate to test hypothesized impacts of climate change. As climate gradually changes across broad bioclimatic gradients, vegetation condition may change gradually as well. To capture these gradual trends, observations need at least three characteristics: (1) they must quantify a vegetation attribute that is expected to change, (2) they must measure that attribute in exactly the same way over long periods of time, and (3) they must sample diverse communities at geographic scales commensurate with the scale of expected climatic shifts. Observation networks meeting all three criteria are rare anywhere on the globe, but particularly so in remote areas. For this reason, satellite images have long been used as a

Impacts of projected sea ice changes on trans-Arctic navigation

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, S. R.; Smith, L. C.

2012-12-01

Reduced Arctic sea ice continues to be a palpable signal of global change. Record lows in September sea ice extent from 2007 - 2011 have fueled speculation that trans-Arctic navigation routes may become physically viable in the 21st century. General Circulation Models project a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by mid-century; however, how reduced sea ice will realistically impact navigation is not well understood. Using the ATAM (Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model) we present simulations of 21st-century trans-Arctic voyages as a function of climatic (ice) conditions and vessel class. Simulations are based on sea ice projections for three climatic forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m^2) representing present-day and mid-century conditions, assuming Polar Class 6 (PC6) and open-water vessels (OW) with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Optimal least-cost routes (minimizing travel time while avoiding ice impassible to a given vessel class) between the North Atlantic and the Bering Strait were calculated for summer months of each time window. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, current, and weather, these projections should be useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory and environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess potential changes in the spatial and temporal ranges of Arctic marine operations.

Arctic Newcomers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tonami, Aki

2013-01-01

Interest in the Arctic region and its economic potential in Japan, South Korea and Singapore was slow to develop but is now rapidly growing. All three countries have in recent years accelerated their engagement with Arctic states, laying the institutional frameworks needed to better understand...... and influence policies relating to the Arctic. But each country’s approach is quite different, writes Aki Tonami....

Changing Arctic ecosystems: resilience of caribou to climatic shifts in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D.; Adams, Layne G.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative strives to inform key resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information and forecasts for current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. Over the past 5 years, a focal area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the North Slope of Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 60 years, yet the rate of change has been varied across the North Slope, leading scientists to question the future response and resilience of wildlife populations, such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus), that rely on tundra habitats for forage. Future changes in temperature and precipitation to coastal wet sedge and upland low shrub tundra are expected, with unknown consequences for caribou that rely on these plant communities for food. Understanding how future environmental change may affect caribou migration, nutrition, and reproduction is a focal question being addressed by the USGS CAE research. Results will inform management agencies in Alaska and people that rely on caribou for food.

Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Galaktionov, K V

2017-07-01

This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

One Health – a strategy for resilience in a changing arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce A. Ruscio

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The circumpolar north is uniquely vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. While international Arctic collaboration on health has enhanced partnerships and advanced the health of inhabitants, significant challenges lie ahead. One Health is an approach that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health. Understanding this is increasingly critical in assessing the impact of global climate change on the health of Arctic inhabitants. The effects of climate change are complex and difficult to predict with certainty. Health risks include changes in the distribution of infectious disease, expansion of zoonotic diseases and vectors, changing migration patterns, impacts on food security and changes in water availability and quality, among others. A regional network of diverse stakeholder and transdisciplinary specialists from circumpolar nations and Indigenous groups can advance the understanding of complex climate-driven health risks and provide community-based strategies for early identification, prevention and adaption of health risks in human, animals and environment. We propose a regional One Health approach for assessing interactions at the Arctic human–animal–environment interface to enhance the understanding of, and response to, the complexities of climate change on the health of the Arctic inhabitants.

Coordinating for Arctic Conservation: Implementing Integrated Arctic Biodiversity Monitoring, Data Management and Reporting

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, M.; Svoboda, M.

2012-12-01

Arctic ecosystems and the biodiversity they support are experiencing growing pressure from various stressors (e.g. development, climate change, contaminants, etc.) while established research and monitoring programs remain largely uncoordinated, lacking the ability to effectively monitor, understand and report on biodiversity trends at the circumpolar scale. The maintenance of healthy arctic ecosystems is a global imperative as the Arctic plays a critical role in the Earth's physical, chemical and biological balance. A coordinated and comprehensive effort for monitoring arctic ecosystems is needed to facilitate effective and timely conservation and adaptation actions. The Arctic's size and complexity represents a significant challenge towards detecting and attributing important biodiversity trends. This demands a scaled, pan-arctic, ecosystem-based approach that not only identifies trends in biodiversity, but also identifies underlying causes. It is critical that this information be made available to generate effective strategies for adapting to changes now taking place in the Arctic—a process that ultimately depends on rigorous, integrated, and efficient monitoring programs that have the power to detect change within a "management" time frame. To meet these challenges and in response to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment's recommendation to expand and enhance arctic biodiversity monitoring, the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) Working Group of the Arctic Council launched the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program (CBMP). The CBMP is led by Environment Canada on behalf of Canada and the Arctic Council. The CBMP is working with over 60 global partners to expand, integrate and enhance existing arctic biodiversity research and monitoring efforts to facilitate more rapid detection, communication and response to significant trends and pressures. Towards this end, the CBMP has established three Expert Monitoring Groups representing major Arctic

Soil microbial succession along a chronosequence on a High Arctic glacier foreland, Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard: 10 years' change

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshitake, Shinpei; Uchida, Masaki; Iimura, Yasuo; Ohtsuka, Toshiyuki; Nakatsubo, Takayuki

2018-06-01

Rapid glacial retreat in the High Arctic causes the expansion of new habitats, but the successional trajectories of soil microbial communities are not fully understood. We examined microbial succession along a chronosequence twice with a 10-year interval in a High Arctic glacier foreland. Soil samples were collected from five study sites with different ages and phospholipid fatty acids analysis was conducted to investigate the microbial biomass and community structure. Microbial biomass did not differ significantly between the two sampling times but tended to increase with the chronosequence and showed a significant correlation with soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content. Microbial community structure clearly differed along the chronosequence and was correlated with C and N content. The largest shift in community structure over 10 years was observed in the newly exposed sites after deglaciation. The accumulation of soil organic matter was regarded as an important determinant both of microbial biomass and community structure over the successional period. In contrast, the initial microbial community on the newly exposed soil changed rapidly even in the High Arctic, suggesting that some key soil processes such as C and N cycling can also shift within the relatively short period after rapid glacial retreat.

Annual changes in Arctic fjord environment and modern benthic foraminiferal fauna: Evidence from Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

Science.gov (United States)

Jernas, Patrycja; Klitgaard-Kristensen, Dorthe; Husum, Katrine; Koç, Nalan; Tverberg, Vigdis; Loubere, Paul; Prins, Maarten; Dijkstra, Noortje; Gluchowska, Marta

2018-04-01

The relationships between modern Arctic benthic foraminifera and their ecological controls, along with their sensitivity to rapid environmental changes, is still poorly understood. This study examines how modern benthic foraminifera respond to annual environmental changes in the glaciated Arctic fjord Kongsfjorden, western Svalbard. Large environmental gradients due to the inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water and the influence of tidewater glaciers characterise the fjord hydrography. A transect of six multi-corer stations, from the inner to the outer fjord, was sampled in the late summers of 2005 to 2008 to study the distribution of living (rose Bengal stained) benthic foraminifera. Physical properties of the water masses were measured concurrently. In general, nearly the entire Kongsfjorden region was dominated by ubiquitous N. labradorica foraminiferal assemblage that successfully exploited the local food resources and thrived particularly well in the presence of Atlantic-derived Transformed Atlantic Water (TAW). Further, the annual investigation revealed that Kongsfjorden underwent large interannual hydrological changes during the studied years related to variable inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water. This led to a strong fauna variability particularly at the two marginal sites: the glacially influenced inner fjord and marine influenced shelf region. We also observed significant species shift from the 'cold' to 'warm' years and an expansion of widespread and sub-arctic to boreal species into the fjord.

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Vital arctic graphics. People and global heritage on our last wild shores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlenius, H.; Johnsen, K; Nellemann, C.

2005-02-01

Vital Arctic Graphics is a compilation of illustrations and case studies intended to describe the Arctic, the livelihoods of Arctic indigenous peoples and the future well-being of this region. It summarizes some of the key threats to the future sustainability of the Arctic including the rapid pace of climate change, worrying levels of persistent organic and heavy metal pollutants, and increasing natural resource exploration. The coastal regions are particularly important to the peoples of the Arctic and their current protection status is therefore given particular focus

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

The US Arctic Observing Network - Mobilizing Interagency Observing Actions in an Era of Rapid Change

Science.gov (United States)

Starkweather, S.

2017-12-01

US agencies have long relied upon sustained Arctic observing to achieve their missions, be they in support of long-term monitoring, operationalized forecasts, or long-term process studies. One inventory of Arctic observing activities (arcticobservingviewer.org) suggests that there are more than 10,000 sustained data collection sites that have been supported by US agencies. Yet despite calls from academia (e.g. National Research Council, 2006) and agency leadership (e.g. IARPC, 2007) for more integrated approaches, such coherence - in the form of a US Arctic Observing Network (US AON) - has been slow and ad hoc in emerging. Two approaches have been invoked in systematically creating networks of greater coherence. One involves solving the "backward problem" or drawing existing observations into interoperable, multi-sensor, value-added data products. These approaches have the benefit that they build from existing assets and extend observations over greater time and space scales than individual efforts can approach. They suffer from being high-energy undertakings, often proceeding through voluntary efforts, and are limited by the observational assets already in place. Solving the "forward problem", or designing the network that is "needed" entails its own challenges of aligning multiple agency needs and capabilities into coordinated frameworks, often tied into a societal benefit structure. The solutions to the forward problem are greatly constrained by financial and technical feasibility. The benefit of such approaches is that interoperability and user-needs are baked into the network design, and some critical prioritization has been invoked. In September 2016, NOAA and other US agencies advanced plans to formally establish and fund the coordination of a US AON initiative. This US AON initiative brings new coordination capabilities on-line to support and strengthen US engagement in sustained and coordinated pan-Arctic observing and data sharing systems that serve

Climate Change and Risk Management Challenges in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jakobsen, Uffe

Climate change or global warming results in melting ice in the Arctic, both inland and sea ice. This opens up opportunities of natural ressource extraction and possibilities of new shipping routes, that opens up opportunities for increased maritime activities. However, with these opportunies come...... also the challenges of increased maritime activities that result in several risks in the Arctic such as the risk of pollution and the risks of accidents, which produce a need for preparedness towards oil spill and towards search and rescue (SAR) and institutions for SAR. Since the Arctic is such a huge...... possibilies of transborder risk management and partnership building....

Comparative responses of phenology and reproductive development to simulated environmental change in sub-arctic and high arctic plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wookey, P A; Welker, J M; Callaghan, T V [Inst. of Terrestrial Ecology, Merlewood Research Station, Grange-over-Sands, Cumbria (United Kingdom); Parsons, A N; Potter, J A; Lee, J A; Press, M C [Dept. of Environmental Biology, Univ. of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)

1993-01-01

The effects of temperature, precipitation and nutrient perturbations, and their interactions, are being assessed on two contrasting arctic ecosystems to simulate impacts of climate change. One, a high arctic polar semi-desert community, is characterized by a sparse, low and aggregated vegetation cover where plant proliferation is by seedlings, whereas the other, a sub-arctic dwarf shrub health, is characterized by a complete, vegetation cover of erect, clonal dwarf shrubs which spread vegetatively. The developmental processes of seed production were shown to be highly sensitive, even within one growing season to specific environmental perturbations which differed between sites. At the polar semi-desert site, there was a striking effect of the temperature enhancement treatments on phenology and seed-setting of Dryas octopetala ssp. octopetala, with almost no seed-setting occurring in plots experiencing ambient temperatures. By contrast, there were no significant effects of temperature enhancement alone on fruit production of Empetrum hermaphroditum at the sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heath site, although fruit production was significantly influenced by the application of nutrients and/or water. The response of dominant high arctic dwarf shrub to increased temperature suggests that any climate warming may stimulate seed-set. This could be particularly important in the high Arctic where colonization can proceed in areas dominated by bare ground and where genetic recombination may be needed to generate tolerance to predicted changes of great magnitude. In the sub-Arctic, however the closed vegetation is dominated by clonally-proliferating species. Plant fitness will increase here in response to any increased vegetative growth resulting from higher nutrient availability in warmer organic soils. (ua) (59 refs.)

Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Lara, Mark J.; Nitze, Ingmar; Grosse, Guido; Martin, Philip; McGuire, A. David

2018-01-01

Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km²) using the Landsat archive (1999–2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.

Modes of Arctic Ocean Change from GRACE, ICESat and the PIOMAS and ECCO2 Models of the Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Peralta Ferriz, C.; Morison, J. H.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kwok, R.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

EOF analysis of month-to-month variations in GRACE derived Arctic Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) with trend and seasonal variation removed yield three dominant modes. The first mode is a basin wide variation in mass associated with high atmospheric pressure (SLP) over Scandinavia mainly in winter. The second mode is a shift of mass from the central Arctic Ocean to the Siberian shelves due to low pressure over the basins, associated with the Arctic Oscillation. The third mode is a shift in mass between the Eastern and Western Siberian shelves, related to strength of the Beaufort High mainly in summer, and to eastward alongshore winds on the Barents Sea in winter. The PIOMAS and ECCO2 modeled OBP show fair agreement with the form of these modes and provide context in terms of variations in sea surface height SSH. Comparing GRACE OBP from 2007 to 2011 with GRACE OBP from 2002 to 2006 reveals a rising trend over most of the Arctic Ocean but declines in the Kara Sea region and summer East Siberian Sea. ECCO2 bears a faint resemblance to the observed OBP change but appears to be biased negatively. In contrast, PIOMAS SSH and ECCO2 especially, show changes between the two periods that are muted but similar to ICESat dynamic ocean topography and GRACE-ICESat freshwater trends from 2005 through 2008 [Morison et al., 2012] with a rising DOT and freshening in the Beaufort Sea and a trough with decreased freshwater on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean. Morison, J., R. Kwok, C. Peralta-Ferriz, M. Alkire, I. Rigor, R. Andersen, and M. Steele (2012), Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways, Nature, 481(7379), 66-70.

Modelling impact of climate change on atmospheric transport and fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Silver, J. D.; Brandt, J.

2015-03-01

The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Artic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Two sets of simulations were performed, one with initial environmental concentrations from a 20 year spin-up simulation and one with initial environmental concentrations set to zero. Each set of simulations consisted of two ten-year time slices representing the present (1990-2000) and future (2090-2100) climate conditions. The same POP emissions were applied in all simulations to ensure that the difference in predicted concentrations for each set of simulations only arises from the difference in climate input. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 20% higher across the Northern Hemisphere. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 39% higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 14% lower to 17% higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depend on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies have predicted that the effect of a changed climate on

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, A.; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.

2005-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lameris, T.K.; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, S.; Cobben, M.M.P.; Ens, B.J.; Nolet, B.A.

2017-01-01

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset

The Arctic in the Twenty-First Century: Changing Biogeochemical Linkages across a Paraglacial Landscape of Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, N. John; Saros, Jasmine E.; Bullard, Joanna E.; Cahoon, Sean M. P.; McGowan, Suzanne; Bagshaw, Elizabeth A.; Barry, Christopher D.; Bindler, Richard; Burpee, Benjamin T.; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Fowler, Rachel A.; Fox, Anthony D.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Giles, Madeleine E.; Hamerlik, Ladislav; Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas; Law, Antonia C.; Mernild, Sebastian H.; Northington, Robert M.; Osburn, Christopher L.; Pla-Rabès, Sergi; Post, Eric; Telling, Jon; Stroud, David A.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Yallop, Marian L.; Yde, Jacob C.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm. PMID:28596614

Collaborative Proposal: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robertson, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (United States)

2016-11-18

RASM is a multi-disciplinary project, which brings together researchers from six state universities, one military postgraduate school, and one DoE laboratory to address the core modeling objectives of the arctic research community articulated in the Arctic System Modeling report by Roberts et al. (2010b). This report advocates the construction of a regional downscaling tool to generate probabilistic decadal projections of Greenland ice sheet retreat, evolution of arctic sea ice cover, changes in land surface vegetation, and regional processes leading to arctic amplification. Unified coupled models such as RASM are ideal for this purpose because they simulate fine-scale physics, essential for the realistic representation of intra-annual variability, in addition to processes fundamental to long term climatic shifts (Hurrell et al. 2009). By using RASM with boundary conditions from a global model, we can generate many-member ensembles essential for understanding uncertainty in regional climate projections (Hawkins and Sutton 2009). This probabilistic approach is computationally prohibitive for high-resolution global models in the foreseeable future, and also for regional models interactively nested within global simulations. Yet it is fundamental for quantifying uncertainty in decadal forecasts to make them useful for decision makers (Doherty et al. 2009). For this reason, we have targeted development of ensemble generation techniques as a core project task (Task 4.5). Environmental impact assessment specialists need high-fidelity regional ensemble projections to improve the accuracy of their work (Challinor et al. 2009; Moss et al. 2010). This is especially true of the Arctic, where economic, social and national interests are rapidly reshaping the high north in step with regional climate change. During the next decade, considerable oil and gas discoveries are expected across many parts of the marine and terrestrial Arctic (Gautier et al. 2009), the economics of the

Strategic environmental assessment and monitoring: Arctic key gaps and bridging pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azcárate, Juan; Balfors, Berit; Bring, Arvid; Destouni, Georgia

2013-01-01

The Arctic region undergoes rapid and unprecedented environmental change. Environmental assessment and monitoring is needed to understand and decide how to mitigate and/or adapt to the changes and their impacts on society and ecosystems. This letter analyzes the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the monitoring, based on environmental observations, that should be part of SEA, elucidates main gaps in both, and proposes an overarching SEA framework to systematically link and improve both with focus on the rapidly changing Arctic region. Shortcomings in the monitoring of environmental change are concretized by examples of main gaps in the observations of Arctic hydroclimatic changes. For relevant identification and efficient reduction of such gaps and remaining uncertainties under typical conditions of limited monitoring resources, the proposed overarching framework for SEA application includes components for explicit gap/uncertainty handling and monitoring, systematically integrated within all steps of the SEA process. The framework further links to adaptive governance, which should explicitly consider key knowledge and information gaps that are identified through and must be handled in the SEA process, and accordingly (re)formulate and promote necessary new or modified monitoring objectives for bridging these gaps. (letter)

Resilience, human agency and climate change adaptation strategies in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sejersen, Frank

2009-01-01

and work with a number of barriers for resilience. The objective of the article is first to address the position of institutional barriers in the studies and strategies. Second the article analyses the role human agency is ascribed in proposed strategies and projects in Nunavut and Greenland. With a focus......  In the Arctic, indigenous peoples, researchers and governments are working to develop climate change adaptation strategies due to the rapid changes in sea ice extent, weather conditions and in the ecosystem as such. These strategies are often based on specific perceptions of vulnerability...... on institutions and human agency the question is not only ‘how do people manage to adapt?' but moreover ‘what constrains people in pursuing a given adaptation strategy?' The article introduces the concept of double agency which stresses two different aspects of human agency that can be used to understand...

Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuanji Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

Arctic alpine ecosystems and people in a changing environment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ørbæk, Jon Børre

2007-01-01

... for the population structures and the interaction between species. These changes may also have socio-economic effects if the changes affect the bio-production, which form the basis for the marine and terrestrial food chains. The book is uniquely multidisciplinary and provides examples of various aspects of contemporary environmental change in arctic and ...

The effect of changing sea ice on the vulnerability of Arctic coasts

OpenAIRE

K. R. Barnhart; I. Overeem; R. S. Anderson

2014-01-01

Shorefast sea ice prevents the interaction of the land and the ocean in the Arctic winter and influences this interaction in the summer by governing the fetch. In many parts of the Arctic the sea-ice-free season is increasing in duration, and the summertime sea ice extents are decreasing. Sea ice provides a first order control on the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to erosion, inundation, and damage to settlements and infrastructure. We ask how the changing sea ic...

Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS): Integrated perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Karcher, Michael; Gascard, Jean-Claude

2017-12-01

This introduction to the special issue presents an overview of the wide range of results produced during the European Union project Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS). This project assessed the main impacts of climate change on Arctic Ocean's geophysical variables and how these impending changes could be expected to impact directly and indirectly on socio-economic activities like transportation, marine sea food production and resource exploitation. Related governance issues were examined. These results were used to develop several management tools that can live on beyond ACCESS. In this article, we synthesize most of the project results in the form of tentative responses to questions raised during the project. By doing so, we put the findings of the project in a broader perspective and introduce the contributions made in the different articles published in this special issue.

The Arctic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petersen, H.; Meltofte, H.; Rysgaard, S.; Rasch, M.; Jonasson, S.; Christensen, T.R.; Friborg, T.; Soegaard, H.; Pedersen, S.A.

2001-01-01

Global climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern. Research has already documented pronounced changes, and models predict that increases in temperature from anthropogenic influences could be considerably higher than the global average. The impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems are complex and difficult to predict because of the many interactions within ecosystem, and between many concurrently changing environmental variables. Despite the global consequences of change in the Arctic climate the monitoring of basic abiotic as well as biotic parameters are not adequate to assess the impact of global climate change. The uneven geographical location of present monitoring stations in the Arctic limits the ability to understand the climate system. The impact of previous variations and potential future changes to ecosystems is not well understood and need to be addressed. At this point, there is no consensus of scientific opinion on how much of the current changes that are due to anthropogenic influences or to natural variation. Regardless of the cause, there is a need to investigate and assess current observations and their effects to the Arctic. In this chapter examples from both terrestrial and marine ecosystems from ongoing monitoring and research projects are given. (LN)

Arctic air pollution: New insights from POLARCAT-IPY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Law, Katharine S.; Ancellet, Gerard; Pelon, Jacques; Thomas, Jennie L.; Stohl, Andreas; Quinn, Patricia K.; Brock, Charles A.; Burkhart, John F.

2014-01-01

Given the rapid nature of climate change occurring in the Arctic and the difficulty climate models have in quantitatively reproducing observed changes such as sea ice loss, it is important to improve understanding of the processes leading to climate change in this region, including the role of short-lived climate pollutants such as aerosols and ozone. It has long been known that pollution produced from emissions at mid latitudes can be transported to the Arctic, resulting in a winter/spring aerosol maximum known as Arctic haze. However, many uncertainties remain about the composition and origin of Arctic pollution throughout the troposphere; for example, many climate-chemistry models fail to reproduce the strong seasonality of aerosol abundance observed at Arctic surface sites, the origin and deposition mechanisms of black carbon (soot) particles that darken the snow and ice surface in the Arctic is poorly understood, and chemical processes controlling the abundance of tropospheric ozone are not well quantified. The International Polar Year (IPY) Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport (POLARCAT) core project had the goal to improve understanding about the origins of pollutants transported to the Arctic; to detail the chemical composition, optical properties, and climate forcing potential of Arctic aerosols; to evaluate the processes governing tropospheric ozone; and to quantify the role of boreal forest fires. This article provides a review of the many results now available based on analysis of data collected during the POLARCAT aircraft-, ship-, and ground-based field campaigns in spring and summer 2008. Major findings are highlighted and areas requiring further investigation are discussed. (authors)

Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research.

Science.gov (United States)

Natalia, Kukarenko

2011-01-01

Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic. Global Health Action 2011. © 2011 Kukarenko

Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, Daniel M; Gerlach, S Craig; Loring, Philip; Tidwell, Amy C; Chambers, Molly C

2007-01-01

In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

Climate Change Impacts on Environmental and Human Exposure to Mercury in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M.; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Rautio, Arja

2015-01-01

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure. PMID:25837201

Climate change impacts on environmental and human exposure to mercury in the arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Jozef M; Banel, Anna; Pacyna, Elisabeth G; Rautio, Arja

2015-03-31

This paper reviews information from the literature and the EU ArcRisk project to assess whether climate change results in an increase or decrease in exposure to mercury (Hg) in the Arctic, and if this in turn will impact the risks related to its harmful effects. It presents the state-of-the art of knowledge on atmospheric mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide, the long-range transport to the Arctic, and it discusses the likely environmental fate and exposure effects on population groups in the Arctic under climate change conditions. The paper also includes information about the likely synergy effects (co-benefits) current and new climate change polices and mitigation options might have on mercury emissions reductions in the future. The review concludes that reductions of mercury emission from anthropogenic sources worldwide would need to be introduced as soon as possible in order to assure lowering the adverse impact of climate change on human health. Scientific information currently available, however, is not in the position to clearly answer whether climate change will increase or decrease the risk of exposure to mercury in the Arctic. New research should therefore be undertaken to model the relationships between climate change and mercury exposure.

Marine Invasive Species Management: Adapting in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Brooks

2014-01-01

The rapid pace of climate change and increased human disturbance of ecosystems in the Arctic is bringing urgency to concern over non-native species introductions and their potential threats to the marine environment and its economic productivity, where before environmental conditions served...

History of sea ice in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polyak, Leonid; Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.

2010-01-01

Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past. This inf......Arctic sea-ice extent and volume are declining rapidly. Several studies project that the Arctic Ocean may become seasonally ice-free by the year 2040 or even earlier. Putting this into perspective requires information on the history of Arctic sea-ice conditions through the geologic past...... Optimum, and consistently covered at least part of the Arctic Ocean for no less than the last 13–14 million years. Ice was apparently most widespread during the last 2–3 million years, in accordance with Earth’s overall cooler climate. Nevertheless, episodes of considerably reduced sea ice or even...

Does temporal variation of mercury levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in global environmental contamination, or a modification of Arctic marine food web functioning?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fort, Jérôme; Grémillet, David; Traisnel, Gwendoline; Amélineau, Françoise; Bustamante, Paco

2016-01-01

Studying long-term trends of contaminants in Arctic biota is essential to better understand impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of sensitive species and marine ecosystems. We concurrently measured temporal changes (2006–2014) in mercury (Hg) contamination of little auks (Alle alle; the most abundant Arctic seabird) and in their major zooplankton prey species (Calanoid copepods, Themisto libellula, Gammarus spp.). We found an increasing contamination of the food-chain in East Greenland during summer over the last decade. More specifically, bird contamination (determined by body feather analyses) has increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Conversely, bird exposure to Hg during winter in the northwest Atlantic (determined by head feather analyses) decreased over the study period (at a rate of 1.5% per year), although winter concentrations remained consistently higher than during summer. By combining mercury levels measured in birds and zooplankton to isotopic analyses, our results demonstrate that inter-annual variations of Hg levels in little auks reflect changes in food-chain contamination, rather than a reorganization of the food web and a modification of seabird trophic ecology. They therefore underline the value of little auks, and Arctic seabirds in general, as bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. - Highlights: • We examined temporal trends of Hg in Arctic seabirds and major zooplankton species. • We investigated the role of underlying ecological drivers in seabird contamination. • Hg contamination of the East Greenland marine food web increased over the last decade. • Hg levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in the food-chain contamination. • Little auks are bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. - Temporal increase of seabird exposure to Hg reflects changes in Arctic environmental contamination.

Changing Arctic Ecosystems: Updated forecast: Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions required to improve polar bear outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Oakley, Karen L.; Atwood, Todd C.; Mugel, Douglas N.; Rode, Karyn D.; Whalen, Mary E.

2015-01-01

The Arctic is warming faster than other regions of the world due to the loss of snow and ice, which increases the amount of solar energy absorbed by the region. The most visible consequence has been the rapid decline in sea ice over the last 3 decades-a decline projected to bring long ice-free summers if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not significantly reduced. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice over the biologically productive continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean as a platform for hunting seals. In 2008, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) due to the threat posed by sea ice loss. The polar bear was the first species to be listed due to forecasted population declines from climate change.

Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

Science.gov (United States)

Mech, L.D.

2004-01-01

Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: a comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiaodong; Jiang, Shan; Zhang, Pengfei; Xu, Liqiang

2012-01-01

Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s-1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Arctic: between climatic change, economic development and security issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Degeorges, Damien

2016-01-01

The Arctic is a perfect illustration of how climate change is impacting international relations, in particular because it triggers new economic and safety issues. Since every major economic power has interests in the region, it has now become the stage of many rivalries, including between China and the United-States. Whether it is because its extreme climate conditions or the growing international pressure, the Arctic sets a new challenge for investors: securing a sustainable economic growth in the region

Relating Radiative Fluxes on Arctic Sea Ice Area Using Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sledd, A.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

2017-12-01

With Arctic sea ice declining rapidly and Arctic temperatures rising faster than the rest of the globe, a better understanding of the Arctic climate, and ice cover-radiation feedbacks in particular, is needed. Here we present the Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS), a dataset of integrated products to facilitate studying the Arctic using satellite, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. The data include cloud properties, radiative fluxes, aerosols, meteorology, precipitation, and surface properties, to name just a few. Each dataset has uniform grid-spacing, time-averaging and naming conventions for ease of use between products. One intended use of ArORIS is to assess Arctic radiation and moisture budgets. Following that goal, we use observations from ArORIS - CERES-EBAF radiative fluxes and NSIDC sea ice fraction and area to quantify relationships between the Arctic energy balance and surface properties. We find a discernable difference between energy budgets for years with high and low September sea ice areas. Surface fluxes are especially responsive to the September sea ice minimum in months both leading up to September and the months following. In particular, longwave fluxes at the surface show increased sensitivity in the months preceding September. Using a single-layer model of solar radiation we also investigate the individual responses of surface and planetary albedos to changes in sea ice area. By partitioning the planetary albedo into surface and atmospheric contributions, we find that the atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo is less sensitive to changes in sea ice area than the surface contribution. Further comparisons between observations and reanalyses can be made using the available datasets in ArORIS.

Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weedon, J.T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding

Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Weedon, J.T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G.A.; van Bodegom, P.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding

Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, K. M.; Christensen, J. H.; Geels, C.; Silver, J. D.; Brandt, J.

2015-06-01

The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate how projected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13 persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmental fate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one with present day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initial environmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but with initial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation. Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representing the present (1990-2000) and future (2090-2100) climate conditions. DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulation model, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under the applied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds was predicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the end of the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic was predicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBs was predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on the congener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The results of this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emission history will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arctic environment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates the environmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climate scenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to the atmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degree counteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher mean temperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on the physical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2010-01-26

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

Building Partnerships and Research Collaborations to Address the Impacts of Arctic Change: The North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3)

Science.gov (United States)

Polk, J.; North, L. A.; Strenecky, B.

2015-12-01

Changes in Arctic warming influence the various atmospheric and oceanic patterns that drive Caribbean and mid-latitude climate events, including extreme events like drought, tornadoes, and flooding in Kentucky and the surrounding region. Recently, the establishment of the North Atlantic Climate Change Collaboration (NAC3) project at Western Kentucky University (WKU) in partnership with the University of Akureyri (UNAK), Iceland Arctic Cooperation Network (IACN), and Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) provides a foundation from which to engage students in applied research from the local to global levels and more clearly understand the many tenets of climate change impacts in the Arctic within both a global and local community context. The NAC3 project encompasses many facets, including joint international courses, student internships, economic development, service learning, and applied research. In its first phase, the project has generated myriad outcomes and opportunities for bridging STEM disciplines with other fields to holistically and collaboratively address specific human-environmental issues falling under the broad umbrella of climate change. WKU and UNAK students desire interaction and exposure to other cultures and regions that are threatened by climate change and Iceland presents a unique opportunity to study influences such as oceanic processes, island economies, sustainable harvest of fisheries, and Arctic influences on climate change. The project aims to develop a model to bring partners together to conduct applied research on the complex subject of global environmental change, particularly in the Arctic, while simultaneously focusing on changing how we learn, develop community, and engage internationally to understand the impacts and find solutions.

Arctic sea-ice syntheses: Charting across scope, scale, and knowledge systems

Science.gov (United States)

Druckenmiller, M. L.; Perovich, D. K.; Francis, J. A.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice supports and intersects a multitude of societal benefit areas, including regulating regional and global climates, structuring marine food webs, providing for traditional food provisioning by indigenous peoples, and constraining marine shipping and access. At the same time, sea ice is one of the most rapidly changing elements of the Arctic environment and serves as a source of key physical indicators for monitoring Arctic change. Before the present scientific interest in Arctic sea ice for climate research, it has long been, and remains, a focus of applied research for industry and national security. For generations, the icy coastal seas of the North have also provided a basis for the sharing of local and indigenous knowledge between Arctic residents and researchers, including anthropologists, biologists, and geoscientists. This presentation will summarize an ongoing review of existing synthesis studies of Arctic sea ice. We will chart efforts to achieve system-level understanding across geography, temporal scales, and the ecosystem services that Arctic sea ice supports. In doing so, we aim to illuminate the role of interdisciplinary science, together with local and indigenous experts, in advancing knowledge of the roles of sea ice in the Arctic system and beyond, reveal the historical and scientific evolution of sea-ice research, and assess current gaps in system-scale understanding.

Human-induced Arctic moistening.

Science.gov (United States)

Min, Seung-Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis

2008-04-25

The Arctic and northern subpolar regions are critical for climate change. Ice-albedo feedback amplifies warming in the Arctic, and fluctuations of regional fresh water inflow to the Arctic Ocean modulate the deep ocean circulation and thus exert a strong global influence. By comparing observations to simulations from 22 coupled climate models, we find influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the space-time pattern of precipitation change over high-latitude land areas north of 55 degrees N during the second half of the 20th century. The human-induced Arctic moistening is consistent with observed increases in Arctic river discharge and freshening of Arctic water masses. This result provides new evidence that human activity has contributed to Arctic hydrological change.

Climate Change and Thawing Permafrost in Two Iñupiaq Communities of Alaska's Arctic: Observations, Implications, and Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Woodward, A.; Kofinas, G.

2013-12-01

For thousands of years the Iñupiat of northern Alaska have relied on ecosystems underlain by permafrost for material and cultural resources. As permafrost thaws across the Arctic, these social-ecological systems are changing rapidly. Community-based research and extensive local knowledge of Iñupiaq villagers offer unique and valuable contributions to understanding permafrost change and its implications for humans. We partnered with two Iñupiaq communities in Alaska's Arctic to investigate current and potential effects of thawing permafrost on social-ecological systems. Anaktuvuk Pass is situated on thaw-stable consolidated gravel in the Brooks Range, while Selawik rests on ice-rich permafrost in Beringia lowland tundra. Using the transdisciplinary approach of resilience theory and mixed geophysical and ethnographic methods, we measured active layer thaw depths and documented local knowledge about climate and permafrost change. Thaw depths were greater overall in Selawik. Residents of both communities reported a variety of changes in surface features, hydrology, weather, flora, and fauna that they attribute to thawing permafrost and / or climate change. Overall, Selawik residents described more numerous and extreme examples of such changes, expressed higher degrees of certainty that change is occurring, and anticipated more significant and negative implications for their way of life than did residents of Anaktuvuk Pass. Of the two villages, Selawik faces greater and more immediate challenges to the resilience of its social-ecological system as permafrost thaws.

Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, P

2001-01-01

The colonization of the circumpolar peoples has had a profound influence on their health. History tells about devastating epidemics and the introduction of alcohol. The last 50 years have witnessed an unprecedented societal development in Greenland and a rapid epidemiological transition. Physical...... health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

Boundary layer stability and Arctic climate change: a feedback study using EC-Earth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bintanja, R.; Linden, E.C. van der; Hazeleger, W. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

2012-12-15

Amplified Arctic warming is one of the key features of climate change. It is evident in observations as well as in climate model simulations. Usually referred to as Arctic amplification, it is generally recognized that the surface albedo feedback governs the response. However, a number of feedback mechanisms play a role in AA, of which those related to the prevalent near-surface inversion have received relatively little attention. Here we investigate the role of the near-surface thermal inversion, which is caused by radiative surface cooling in autumn and winter, on Arctic warming. We employ idealized climate change experiments using the climate model EC-Earth together with ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that boundary-layer mixing governs the efficiency by which the surface warming signal is 'diluted' to higher levels. Reduced vertical mixing, as in the stably stratified inversion layer in Arctic winter, thus amplifies surface warming. Modelling results suggest that both shortwave - through the (seasonal) interaction with the sea ice feedback - and longwave feedbacks are affected by boundary-layer mixing, both in the Arctic and globally, with the effect on the shortwave feedback dominating. The amplifying effect will decrease, however, with climate warming because the surface inversion becomes progressively weaker. We estimate that the reduced Arctic inversion has slowed down global warming by about 5% over the past 2 decades, and we anticipate that it will continue to do so with ongoing Arctic warming. (orig.)

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

Science.gov (United States)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

Research Experience for Undergraduates: Understanding the Arctic as a System

Science.gov (United States)

Alexeev, V. A.; Walsh, J. E.; Arp, C. D.; Hock, R.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Kaden, U.; Polyakov, I.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Trainor, S.

2017-12-01

Today, more than ever, an integrated cross-disciplinary approach is necessary to understand and explain changes in the Arctic and the implications of those changes. Responding to needs in innovative research and education for understanding high-latitude rapid climate change, scientists at the International Arctic research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) established a new REU (=Research Experience for Undergraduates) NSF-funded site, aiming to attract more undergraduates to arctic sciences. The science focus of this program, building upon the research strengths of UAF, is on understanding the Arctic as a system with emphasis on its physical component. The goals, which were to disseminate new knowledge at the frontiers of polar science and to ignite the enthusiasm of the undergraduates about the Arctic, are pursued by involving undergraduate students in research and educational projects with their mentors using the available diverse on-campus capabilities. IARC hosted the first group of eight students this past summer, focusing on a variety of different disciplines of the Arctic System Science. Students visited research sites around Fairbanks and in remote parts of Alaska (Toolik Lake Field Station, Gulkana glacier, Bonanza Creek, Poker Flats, the CRREL Permafrost Tunnel and others) to see and experience first-hand how the arctic science is done. Each student worked on a research project guided by an experienced instructor. The summer program culminated with a workshop that consisted of reports from the students about their experiences and the results of their projects.

Squaring the Arctic Circle: connecting Arctic knowledge with societal needs

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, J.

2017-12-01

Over the coming years the landscape of the Arctic will change substantially- environmentally, politically, and economically. Furthermore, Arctic change has the potential to significantly impact Arctic and non-Arctic countries alike. Thus, our science is in-demand by local communities, politicians, industry leaders and the public. During these times of transition it is essential that the links between science and society be strengthened further. Strong links between science and society is exactly what is needed for the development of better decision-making tools to support sustainable development, enable adaptation to climate change, provide the information necessary for improved management of assets and operations in the Arctic region, and and to inform scientific, economic, environmental and societal policies. By doing so tangible benefits will flow to Arctic societies, as well as for non-Arctic countries that will be significantly affected by climate change. Past experience has shown that the engagement with a broad range of stakeholders is not always an easy process. Consequently, we need to improve collaborative opportunities between scientists, indigenous/local communities, private sector, policy makers, NGOs, and other relevant stakeholders. The development of best practices in this area must build on the collective experiences of successful cross-sectorial programmes. Within this session we present some of the outreach work we have performed within the EU programme ICE-ARC, from community meetings in NW Greenland through to sessions at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP Conferences, industry round tables, and an Arctic side event at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The Siberian High and Arctic Sea Ice: Long-term Climate Change and Impacts on Air Pollution during Wintertime in China

Science.gov (United States)

Long, X.; Zhao, S.; Feng, T.; Tie, X.; Li, G.

2017-12-01

China has undergone severe air pollution during wintertime as national industrialization and urbanization have been increasingly developed in the past three decades. It has been suggested that high emission and adverse weather patterns contribute to wintertime air pollution. Recent studies propose that climate change and Arctic sea ice loss likely lead to extreme haze events in winter. Here we use two reanalysis and observational datasets to present the trends of Siberian High (SH) intensity over Eurasia, and Arctic temperature and sea ice. The results show the Arctic region of Asia is becoming warming accompanied by a rapid decline of sea ice while Eurasia is cooling and SH intensity is gradually enhancing. Wind patterns induced by these changes cause straight westerly prevailing over Eurasia at the year of weak SH while strengthened northerly winds at the year of strong SH. Therefore, we utilize regional dynamical and chemical WRF-Chem model to determine the impact of SH intensity difference on wintertime air pollution in China. As a result, enhancing northerly winds at the year of strong SH rapidly dilute and transport air pollution, causing a decline of 50 - 400 µg m-3 PM2.5 concentrations relative to that at the year of weak SH. We also assess the impact of emission reduction to half the current level on air pollution. The results show that emission reduction by 50% has an equivalent impact as the variability of SH intensity. This suggests that climate change over Eurasia has largely offset the negative impact of emission on air pollution and it is urgently needed to take measures to mitigate air pollution. In view of current high emission scenario in China, it will be a long way to effectively mitigate, or ultimately prevent wintertime air pollution.

Predicting Changes in Arctic Tundra Vegetation: Towards an Understanding of Plant Trait Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Euskirchen, E. S.; Serbin, S.; Carman, T.; Iversen, C. M.; Salmon, V.; Helene, G.; McGuire, A. D.

2017-12-01

Arctic tundra plant communities are currently undergoing unprecedented changes in both composition and distribution under a warming climate. Predicting how these dynamics may play out in the future is important since these vegetation shifts impact both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. More precise estimates of these future vegetation shifts is a key challenge due to both a scarcity of data with which to parameterize vegetation models, particularly in the Arctic, as well as a limited understanding of the importance of each of the model parameters and how they may vary over space and time. Here, we incorporate newly available field data from arctic Alaska into a dynamic vegetation model specifically developed to take into account a particularly wide array of plant species as well as the permafrost soils of the arctic tundra (the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with Dynamic Vegetation and Dynamic Organic Soil, Terrestrial Ecosystem Model; DVM-DOS-TEM). We integrate the model within the Predicative Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), an open-source integrated ecological bioinformatics toolbox that facilitates the flows of information into and out of process models and model-data integration. We use PEcAn to evaluate the plant functional traits that contribute most to model variability based on a sensitivity analysis. We perform this analysis for the dominant types of tundra in arctic Alaska, including heath, shrub, tussock and wet sedge tundra. The results from this analysis will help inform future data collection in arctic tundra and reduce model uncertainty, thereby improving our ability to simulate Arctic vegetation structure and function in response to global change.

Does Reality Matter? Social and Science Bases of Public Beliefs about Arctic Change

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, D. A.; Schaefer, K. M.; Schaeffer, K. P.; Schaefer, K. M.; Hamilton, L.

2015-12-01

Surveys of public perceptions about trends in Arctic sea ice find that over two-thirds are aware of the multi-decade decrease. This awareness differs sharply across ideological and educational subgroups, however. It does not appear to shift in response to scientific and media discussion following a September with unusually low (2012) or somewhat higher (2013) sea ice extent. Other perceptions about Arctic change, such as impacts on mid-latitude weather, follow similar patterns with sharp ideological difference and limited response to external events, including science reports. On the other hand, public accuracy on basic factual questions that do not by themselves imply directional change (such as location of the North Pole) may be very low, and among some subgroups accurate knowledge shows an oddly negative correlation with self-confidence about understanding of climate change. These results from 13 surveys over 2011-2015 suggest that biased assimilation filters the acceptance of information about Arctic change, with implications for science communication.

Recent Changes in the Arctic Melt Season

Science.gov (United States)

Stroeve, Julienne; Markus, Thorsten; Meier, Walter N.; Miller, Jeff

2007-01-01

Melt-season duration, melt-onset and freeze-up dates are derived from satellite passive microwave data and analyzed from 1979 to 2005 over Arctic sea ice. Results indicate a shift towards a longer melt season, particularly north of Alaska and Siberia, corresponding to large retreats of sea ice observed in these regions. Although there is large interannual and regional variability in the length of the melt season, the Arctic is experiencing an overall lengthening of the melt season at a rate of about 2 weeks decade(sup -1). In fact, all regions in the Arctic (except for the central Arctic) have statistically significant (at the 99% level or higher) longer melt seasons by greater than 1 week decade(sup -1). The central Arctic shows a statistically significant trend (at the 98% level) of 5.4 days decade(sup -1). In 2005 the Arctic experienced its longest melt season, corresponding with the least amount of sea ice since 1979 and the warmest temperatures since the 1880s. Overall, the length of the melt season is inversely correlated with the lack of sea ice seen in September north of Alaska and Siberia, with a mean correlation of -0.8.

A study of Arctic sea ice freeboard heights, gravity anomalies and dynamic topography from ICESat measurementes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skourup, Henriette

The Arctic sea ice cover has a great influence on the climate and is believed to respond rapidly to climate changes. Since 2003 the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission has provided satellite altimetry over the ice covered Arctic Ocean up to 86 N. In this thesis...

Assessing STEM content learning: using the Arctic's changing climate to develop 21st century learner

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, G. R.; Durkin, S.; Moran, A.

2016-12-01

In recent years the U.S. federal government has called for an increased focus on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) in the educational system to ensure that there will be sufficient technical expertise to meet the needs of business and industry. As a direct result of this STEM emphasis, the number of outreach activities aimed at actively engaging these students in STEM learning has surged. Such activities, frequently in the form of summer camps led by university faculty, have targeted primary and secondary school students with the goal of growing student interest in STEM majors and STEM careers. This study assesses short-term content learning using a climate module that highlights rapidly changing Arctic climate conditions to illustrate concepts of radiative energy balance and climate feedback. Hands-on measurement of short and longwave radiation using simple instrumentation is used to demonstrate concepts that are then related back to the "big picture" Arctic issue. Pre and post module questionnaires were used to assess content learning, as this learning type has been identified as the basis for STEM literacy and the vehicle by which 21st century learning skills are usually developed. In this instance, students applied subject knowledge they gained by taking radiation measurements to better understand the real-world problem of climate change.

The Arctic Marine Pulses Model: Linking Contiguous Domains in the Pacific Arctic Region

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, S. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

2016-02-01

The Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem extends from the northern Bering Sea, across the Chukchi and into the East Siberian and Beaufort seas. Food webs in this domain are short, a simplicity that belies the biophysical complexity underlying trophic linkages from primary production to humans. Existing biophysical models, such as pelagic-benthic coupling and advective processes, provide frameworks for connecting certain aspects of the marine food web, but do not offer a full accounting of events that occur seasonally across the Pacific Arctic. In the course of the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR) project, a holistic Arctic Marine Pulses (AMP) model was developed that depicts seasonal biophysical `pulses' across a latitudinal gradient, and linking four previously-described contiguous domains, including the: (i) Pacific-Arctic domain = the focal region; (ii) seasonal ice zone domain; (iii) Pacific marginal domain; and (iv) riverine coastal domain. The AMP model provides a spatial-temporal framework to guide research on dynamic ecosystem processes during this period of rapid biophysical changes in the Pacific Arctic. Some of the processes included in the model, such as pelagic-benthic coupling in the Northern Bering and Chukchi seas, and advection and upwelling along the Beaufort shelf, are already the focus of sampling via the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and other research programs. Other aspects such as biological processes associated with the seasonal ice zone and trophic responses to riverine outflow have received less attention. The AMP model could be enhanced by the application of visualization tools to provide a means to watch a season unfold in space and time. The capability to track sea ice dynamics and water masses and to move nutrients, prey and upper-trophic predators in space and time would provide a strong foundation for the development of predictive human-inclusive ecosystem models for the Pacific Arctic.

Arctic sea ice area changes in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models’ ensembles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Semenov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the results exhibit considerable spread. Here, we compare results from the two last generations of climate models, CMIP3 and CMIP5, with respect to total and regional Arctic sea ice change. Different characteristics of sea ice area (SIA in March and September have been analysed for the Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH temperature is investigated and dynamical links between SIA and some atmospheric variability modes are assessed.CMIP3 (SRES A1B and CMIP5 (RCP8.5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in CMIP5 ensemble, most noticeably in summer when compared to HadISST1 data. A better simulation of summer SIA in the Entire Arctic by CMIP5 models is accompanied by a slightly increased bias for winter season in comparison to CMIP3 ensemble. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a high uncertainty. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes indicating that a part of inter-ensemble SIA spread comes from different temperature sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing. The results suggest that, in general, a sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in CMIP5 models. Arctic SIA interannual variability in the end of the 20th century is on average well simulated by both ensembles. To the end of the 21st century, September

Climate change and natural hazards in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Eichelberger, J. C.; Eichelberger, L. P.

2015-12-01

Climate change is motivating much of the science research in the Arctic. Natural hazards, which have always been with us and can be influenced by climate, also pose a serious threat to sustainability of Arctic communities, the Native cultures they support, and the health and wellbeing of their residents. These are themes of the US Chairship of the Arctic Council. For example, repetitive floods, often associated with spring ice jams, are a particularly severe problem for river communities. People live near rivers because access to food, water and river transportation support an indigenous subsistence lifestyle. Some settlement sites for Indigenous Peoples were mandated by distant authorities without regard to natural hazards, in Alaska no less than in other countries. Thus bad policy of the past casts a long shadow into the future. Remote communities are subject to multiple challenges, including natural hazards, access to education, and limited job opportunities. These intersect to reproduce structural vulnerability and have over time created a need for substantial support from government. In the past 40 years, the themes of "sustainability" and "self reliance" have become prominent strategies for governance at both state and local levels. Communities now struggle to demonstrate their sustainability while grappling with natural hazards and chronic poverty. In the extreme, the shifting of responsibility to resource-poor communities can be called "structural violence". Accepting the status quo can mean living without sanitation and reliable water supply, leading to the high observed rates of disease not normally encountered in developed countries. Many of the efforts to address climate change and natural hazards are complementary: monitoring the environment; forecasting extreme events; and community-based participatory research and planning. Natural disaster response is complementary to the Arctic Council's Search and Rescue (SAR) initiative, differing in that those

Changes in Ocean Circulation with an Ice-Free Arctic: Reconstructing Early Holocene Arctic Ocean Circulation Using Geochemical Signals from Individual Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) Shells

Science.gov (United States)

Livsey, C.; Spero, H. J.; Kozdon, R.

2016-12-01

The impacts of sea ice decrease and consequent hydrologic changes in the Arctic Ocean will be experienced globally as ocean and atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, though it is not evident to what extent. Understanding the structure of the Arctic water column during the early/mid Holocene sea ice minimum ( 6-10 kya), a post-glacial analogue of a seasonally ice-free Arctic, will help us to predict what the changes we can expect as the Earth warms over the next century. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral; Nps) is a species of planktonic foraminifera that dominates assemblages in the polar oceans. This species grows its chambers (ontogenetic calcite) in the surface waters and subsequently descends through the water column to below the mixed layer where it quickly adds a thick crust of calcite (Kohfeld et al., 1996). Therefore, geochemical signals from both the surface waters and sub-mixed layer depths are captured within single Nps shells. We were able to target ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), therefore capturing signals from both the ontogenetic and crust calcite in single Nps shells. This data was combined with laser ablation- inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) Mg/Ca profiles of trace metals through the two layers of calcite of the same shells, to determine the thermal structure of the water column. Combining δ18O, temperature, and salinity gradients from locations across the Arctic basin allow us to reconstruct the hydrography of the early Holocene Arctic sea ice minimum. These results will be compared with modern Arctic water column characteristics in order to develop a conceptual model of Arctic Ocean oceanographic change due to global warming. Kohfeld, K.E., Fairbanks, R.G., Smith, S.L., Walsh, I.D., 1996. Neogloboquadrina pachyderma(sinistral coiling) as paleoceanographic tracers in polar oceans: Evidence from northeast water polynya plankton tows, sediment traps, and surface sediments. Paleoceanography 11, 679-699.

The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO)-A Change Detection Array in the Pacific Arctic Sector

Science.gov (United States)

Grebmeier, J. M.; Moore, S. E.; Cooper, L. W.; Frey, K. E.; Pickart, R. S.

2011-12-01

latitudinal gradient. Hydrographic transects occupied from spring to fall in 2010 and 2011 at two pilot sites in the SE Chukchi Sea and Barrow Canyon provide repeat collections of water parameters over the seasons that are unavailable from single cruises. This sampling indicates freshening and warming as Pacific seawater transits northward over the spring to fall seasons, with impacts on both plankton and benthic prey bases for larger marine mammals and seabirds. The intent of the DBO is to serve as a change detection array for the identification and consistent monitoring of biophysical responses. This network of spatially explicit DBOs is being organized through the Pacific Arctic Group (PAG), a collaborative network endorsed by the International Arctic Science Committee. Our presentation will provide new information to evaluate the status and developing trends of the marine biological system as it responds to the rapid environmental change.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Climate Change and Arctic Issues in the Marine and Environmental Science Curriculum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy

Science.gov (United States)

Vlietstra, L.; McConnell, M. C.; Bergondo, D. L.; Mrakovcich, K. L.; Futch, V.; Stutzman, B. S.; Fleischmann, C. M.

2016-02-01

As global climate change becomes more evident, demand will likely increase for experts with a detailed understanding of the scientific basis of climate change, the ocean's role in the earth-atmosphere system, and forecasted impacts, especially in Arctic regions where effects may be most pronounced. As a result, programs in marine and environmental sciences are uniquely poised to prepare graduates for the formidable challenges posed by changing climates. Here we present research evaluating the prevalence and themes of courses focusing on anthropogenic climate change in 125 Marine Science and Environmental Science undergraduate programs at 86 institutions in the United States. These results, in addition to the increasing role of the Coast Guard in the Arctic, led to the development of two new courses in the curriculum. Climate Change Science, a one-credit seminar, includes several student-centered activities supporting key learning objectives. Polar Oceanography, a three-credit course, incorporates a major outreach component to Coast Guard units and members of the scientific community. Given the importance of climate change in Arctic regions in particular, we also propose six essential "Arctic Literacy Principles" around which courses or individual lesson plans may be organized. We show how these principles are incorporated into an additional new three-credit course, Model Arctic Council, which prepares students to participate in a week-long simulation exercise of Arctic Council meetings, held in Fairbanks, Alaska. Students examine the history and mission of the Arctic Council and explore some of the issues on which the council has deliberated. Special attention is paid to priorities of the current U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council which include climate change impacts on, and stewardship of, the Arctic Ocean.

Effect of recent climate change on Arctic Pb pollution: A comparative study of historical records in lake and peat sediments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xiaodong; Jiang Shan; Zhang Pengfei; Xu Liqiang

2012-01-01

Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution were reconstructed based on Pb concentrations and isotope ratios in lake and peat sediment profiles from Ny-Ålesund of Arctic. The calculated excess Pb isotope ratios showed that Pb pollution largely came from west Europe and Russia. The peat profile clearly reflected the historical changes of atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic Pb into Ny-Ålesund, and the result showed that anthropogenic Pb peaked at 1960s–1970s, and thereafter a significant recovery was observed by a rapid increase of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios and a remarkable decrease in anthropogenic Pb contents. In contrast to the peat record, the longer lake record showed relatively high anthropogenic Pb contents and a persistent decrease of 206 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios within the uppermost samples, suggesting that climate-sensitive processes such as catchment erosion and meltwater runoff might have influenced the recent change of Pb pollution record in the High Arctic lake sediments. - Highlights: ► Historical changes of anthropogenic Pb pollution in Ny-Ålesund were reconstructed. ► Anthropogenic Pb in Ny-Ålesund was largely originated from W. European and Russia. ► Anthropogenic Pb recorded in peat sediments peaked at 1960–1970s and then declined. ► High anthropogenic fluxes were found in recent change of Pb record from lake sediments. ► Climate-sensitive processes might have influenced recent Pb accumulation rate in lakes. - This manuscript reports the effects of climate-sensitive processes on historical records of Pb pollution in sediments of Arctic lakes.

Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James E. Overland

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Rachold, V.; Forbes, D. L.; Kremer, H.; Lantuit, H.

2010-12-01

The coast is a key interface in the Arctic environment. It is a locus of human activity, a rich band of biodiversity, critical habitat, and high productivity, and among the most dynamic components of the circumpolar landscape. The Arctic coastal interface is a sensitive and important zone of interaction between land and sea, a region that provides essential ecosystem services and supports indigenous human lifestyles; a zone of expanding infrastructure investment and growing security concerns; and an area in which climate warming is expected to trigger landscape instability, rapid responses to change, and increased hazard exposure. Starting with a collaborative workshop in October 2007, the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), the Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) Project and the International Permafrost Association (IPA) decided to jointly initiate an assessment of the state of the Arctic coast. The goal of this report is to draw on initial findings regarding climate change and human dimensions for the Arctic as a whole provided by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and Arctic Human Development Report (AHDR) to develop a comprehensive picture of status and current and anticipated change in the most sensitive Arctic coastal areas. Underlying is the concept of a social ecological system perspective that explores the implications of change for the interaction of humans with nature. The report is aimed to be a first step towards a continuously updated coastal assessment and to identify key issues seeking future scientific concern in an international Earth system research agenda. The report titled “State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook” is the outcome of this collaborative effort. It is organized in three parts: the first provides an assessment of the state of Arctic coastal systems under three broad disciplinary themes - physical systems, ecological systems, and human concerns in the coastal zone; the

Seasonal changes in the optical properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in large Arctic rivers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Walker, S.A.; Amon, R.M.; Stedmon, Colin

Arctic rivers deliver over 10% of the annual global river discharge yet little is known about the seasonal fluctuations in the quantity and quality of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (tDOM). A good constraint on such fluctuations is paramount to understand the role that climate change may have...... on tDOM input to the Arctic Ocean. To understand such changes the optical properties of colored tDOM (tCDOM) were studied. Samples were collected over several seasonal cycles from the six largest Arctic Rivers as part of the PARTNERS project. This unique dataset is the first of its kind capturing...

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists.

Science.gov (United States)

Kortsch, Susanne; Primicerio, Raul; Fossheim, Maria; Dolgov, Andrey V; Aschan, Michaela

2015-09-07

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning. © 2015 The Authors.

Toward Process-resolving Synthesis and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change Using the Regional Arctic System Model

Science.gov (United States)

Maslowski, W.

2017-12-01

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed to better understand the operation of Arctic System at process scale and to improve prediction of its change at a spectrum of time scales. RASM is a pan-Arctic, fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land model with marine biogeochemistry extension to the ocean and sea ice models. The main goal of our research is to advance a system-level understanding of critical processes and feedbacks in the Arctic and their links with the Earth System. The secondary, an equally important objective, is to identify model needs for new or additional observations to better understand such processes and to help constrain models. Finally, RASM has been used to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook of the Sea Ice Prediction Network. Future RASM forecasts, are likely to include increased resolution for model components and ecosystem predictions. Such research is in direct support of the US environmental assessment and prediction needs, including those of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, and the recent IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2017-2021. In addition to an overview of RASM technical details, selected model results are presented from a hierarchy of climate models together with available observations in the region to better understand potential oceanic contributions to polar amplification. RASM simulations are analyzed to evaluate model skill in representing seasonal climatology as well as interannual and multi-decadal climate variability and predictions. Selected physical processes and resulting feedbacks are discussed to emphasize the need for fully coupled climate model simulations, high model resolution and sensitivity of simulated sea ice states to scale dependent model parameterizations controlling ice dynamics, thermodynamics and coupling with the atmosphere and ocean.

Arctic Ocean surface geostrophic circulation 2003–2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. W. K. Armitage

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Monitoring the surface circulation of the ice-covered Arctic Ocean is generally limited in space, time or both. We present a new 12-year record of geostrophic currents at monthly resolution in the ice-covered and ice-free Arctic Ocean derived from satellite radar altimetry and characterise their seasonal to decadal variability from 2003 to 2014, a period of rapid environmental change in the Arctic. Geostrophic currents around the Arctic basin increased in the late 2000s, with the largest increases observed in summer. Currents in the southeastern Beaufort Gyre accelerated in late 2007 with higher current speeds sustained until 2011, after which they decreased to speeds representative of the period 2003–2006. The strength of the northwestward current in the southwest Beaufort Gyre more than doubled between 2003 and 2014. This pattern of changing currents is linked to shifting of the gyre circulation to the northwest during the time period. The Beaufort Gyre circulation and Fram Strait current are strongest in winter, modulated by the seasonal strength of the atmospheric circulation. We find high eddy kinetic energy (EKE congruent with features of the seafloor bathymetry that are greater in winter than summer, and estimates of EKE and eddy diffusivity in the Beaufort Sea are consistent with those predicted from theoretical considerations. The variability of Arctic Ocean geostrophic circulation highlights the interplay between seasonally variable atmospheric forcing and ice conditions, on a backdrop of long-term changes to the Arctic sea ice–ocean system. Studies point to various mechanisms influencing the observed increase in Arctic Ocean surface stress, and hence geostrophic currents, in the 2000s – e.g. decreased ice concentration/thickness, changing atmospheric forcing, changing ice pack morphology; however, more work is needed to refine the representation of atmosphere–ice–ocean coupling in models before we can fully

Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Zielinski, Sarah

Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

Calcareous microfossil-based orbital cyclostratigraphy in the Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Marzen, Rachel; DeNinno, Lauren H.; Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Microfaunal and geochemical proxies from marine sediment records from central Arctic Ocean (CAO) submarine ridges suggest a close relationship over the last 550 thousand years (kyr) between orbital-scale climatic oscillations, sea-ice cover, marine biological productivity and other parameters. Multiple paleoclimate proxies record glacial to interglacial cycles. To understand the climate-cryosphere-productivity relationship, we examined the cyclostratigraphy of calcareous microfossils and constructed a composite Arctic Paleoclimate Index (API) "stack" from benthic foraminiferal and ostracode density from 14 sediment cores. Following the hypothesis that API is driven mainly by changes in sea-ice related productivity, the API stack shows the Arctic experienced a series of highly productive interglacials and interstadials every ∼20 kyr. These periods signify minimal ice shelf and sea-ice cover and maximum marine productivity. Rapid transitions in productivity are seen during shifts from interglacial to glacial climate states. Discrepancies between the Arctic API curves and various global climatic, sea-level and ice-volume curves suggest abrupt growth and decay of Arctic ice shelves related to climatic and sea level oscillations.

Arctic Submarine Slope Stability

Science.gov (United States)

Winkelmann, D.; Geissler, W.

2010-12-01

Submarine landsliding represents aside submarine earthquakes major natural hazard to coastal and sea-floor infrastructure as well as to coastal communities due to their ability to generate large-scale tsunamis with their socio-economic consequences. The investigation of submarine landslides, their conditions and trigger mechanisms, recurrence rates and potential impact remains an important task for the evaluation of risks in coastal management and offshore industrial activities. In the light of a changing globe with warming oceans and rising sea-level accompanied by increasing human population along coasts and enhanced near- and offshore activities, slope stability issues gain more importance than ever before. The Arctic exhibits the most rapid and drastic changes and is predicted to change even faster. Aside rising air temperatures, enhanced inflow of less cooled Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean reduces sea-ice cover and warms the surroundings. Slope stability is challenged considering large areas of permafrost and hydrates. The Hinlopen/Yermak Megaslide (HYM) north of Svalbard is the first and so far only reported large-scale submarine landslide in the Arctic Ocean. The HYM exhibits the highest headwalls that have been found on siliciclastic margins. With more than 10.000 square kilometer areal extent and app. 2.400 cubic kilometer of involved sedimentary material, it is one of the largest exposed submarine slides worldwide. Geometry and age put this slide in a special position in discussing submarine slope stability on glaciated continental margins. The HYM occurred 30 ka ago, when the global sea-level dropped by app. 50 m within less than one millennium due to rapid onset of global glaciation. It probably caused a tsunami with circum-Arctic impact and wave heights exceeding 130 meters. The HYM affected the slope stability field in its neighbourhood by removal of support. Post-megaslide slope instability as expressed in creeping and smaller-scaled slides are

Arctic sea level change over the past 2 decades from GRACE gradiometry and multi-mission satellite altimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, O. B.; Stenseng, L.; Sørensen, C. S.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is still an extremely challenging region for theuse of remote sensing for sea level studies. Despite the availability of 20 years of altimetry, only very limited sea level observations exist in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation...... gradiometer observations from the ESA GOCE mission, we are now able to derive a mean dynamic topography of the Arctic Ocean with unprecedented accuracy to constrain the Arctic Ocean circulation controlling sea level variations in the Arctic. We present both a new estimation of the mean ocean circulation...... and new estimates of large scale sea level changes based on satellite data and perform an estimation of the fresh waterstorage increase over the last decade using temporal gravity changes from the GRACE satellite....

Understanding Pan-Arctic Tundra Vegetation Change Through Long-term Remotely Sensed Data

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, U.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2012-12-01

The goal of this paper is to present an analysis of the seasonality of tundra vegetation variability and change using long-term remotely sensed data as well as ground based measurements and reanalyses. An increase of Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greenness has been documented using the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Coherent variability between NDVI, springtime coastal sea ice (passive microwave) and land surface temperatures (AVHRR) has also been established. Satellite based snow and cloud cover data sets are being incorporated into this analysis. The Arctic tundra is divided into domains based on Treshnikov divisions that are modified based on floristic provinces. There is notable heterogeneity in Pan-Arctic vegetation and climate trends, which necessitates a regional analysis. This study uses remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2010. The GIMMS NDVI3g data has been corrected for biases during the spring and fall, with special focus on the Arctic. Trends of Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), and open water area are calculated for the Pan Arctic. Remotely sensed snow data trends suggest varying patterns throughout the Arctic and may in part explain the heterogeneous MaxNDVI trends. Standard climate data (station, reanalysis, and model data) and ground observations are used in the analysis to provide additional support for hypothesized mechanisms. Overall, we find that trends over the 30-year record are changing as evidenced by the following examples from recent years. The sea ice decline has increased in Eurasia and slowed in North America. The weekly AVHRR landsurface temperatures reveal that there has been summer cooling over Eurasia and that the warming over North America has slowed. The MaxNDVI rates of change have diverged between N. America and Eurasia

Human-polar bear interactions in a changing Arctic: Existing and emerging concerns

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.; Simac, Kristin; Breck, Stewart; York, Geoff; Wilder, James

2017-01-01

The behavior and sociality of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have been shaped by evolved preferences for sea ice habitat and preying on marine mammals. However, human behavior is causing changes to the Arctic marine ecosystem through the influence of greenhouse gas emissions that drive long-term change in ecosystem processes and via the presence of in situ stressors associated with increasing human activities. These changes are making it more difficult for polar bears to reliably use their traditional habitats and maintain fitness. Here, we provide an overview of how human activities in the Arctic are likely to change a polar bear’s behavior and to influence their resilience to environmental change. Developing a more thorough understanding of polar bear behavior and their capacity for flexibility in response to anthropogenic disturbances and subsequent mitigations may lead to successful near-term management interventions.

Changes in cold tolerance due to a 14-day stay in the Canadian Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Livingstone, S. D.; Romet, T.; Keefe, A. A.; Nolan, R. W.

1996-12-01

Responses to cold exposure tests both locally and of the whole body were examined in subjects who stayed in the Arctic (average maximum and minimum temperatures -11 and -21° C respectively) for 14 days of skiing and sleeping in tents. These changes were compared to responses in subjects living working in Ottawa, Canada (average max. and min. temperatures -5 and -11° C respectively). The tests were done before the stay in the Arctic (Pre), immediately after the return (Post 1) and approximately 32 days after the return (Post 2). For the whole-body cold exposure each subject, wearing only shorts and lying on a rope mesh cot, was exposed to an ambient temperature of 10° C. There was no consistent response in the changes of metabolic or body temperature to this exposure in either of groups and, in addition, the changes over time were variable. Cold induced vasodilatation (CIVD) was determined by measuring temperature changes in the middle finger of the nondominant hand upon immersion in ice water for 30 min. CIVD was depressed after the Arctic exposure whilst during the Post 2 testing, although variable, did not return to the Pre values; the responses of the control group were similar. These results indicate that normal seasonal changes may be as important in adaptation as a stay in the Arctic. Caution is advised in the separation of seasonal effects when examining the changes in adaptation after exposure to a cold environment.

Sea-Level Change in the Russian Arctic Since the Last Glacial Maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, B.; Baranskaya, A.; Khan, N.; Romanenko, F. A.

2017-12-01

Relative sea-level (RSL) databases that span the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present have been used to infer changes in climate, regional ice sheet variations, the rate and geographic source of meltwater influx, and the rheological structure of the solid Earth. Here, we have produced a quality-controlled RSL database for the Russian Arctic since the LGM. The database contains 394 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space, and 244 limiting points, which constrain the minimum or maximum limit of former sea level. In the western part of the Russian Arctic (Barents and White seas,) RSL was driven by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to deglaciation of the Scandinavian ice sheet, which covered the Baltic crystalline shield at the LGM. RSL data from isolation basins show rapid RSL from 80-100 m at 11-12 ka BP to 15-25 m at 4-5 ka BP. In the Arctic Islands of Franz-Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, RSL data from dated driftwood in raised beaches show a gradual fall from 25-35 m at 9-10 ka BP to 5-10 m at 3 ka BP. In the Russian plain, situated at the margins of the formerly glaciated Baltic crystalline shield, RSL data from raised beaches and isolation basins show an early Holocene rise from less than -20 m at 9-11 ka BP before falling in the late Holocene, illustrating the complex interplay between ice-equivalent meltwater input and GIA. The Western Siberian Arctic (Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, Beliy Island and islands of the Kara Sea) was not glaciated at the LGM. Sea-level data from marine and salt-marsh deposits show RSL rise at the beginning of the Holocene to a mid-Holocene highstand of 1-5 m at 5-1 ka BP. A similar, but more complex RSL pattern is shown for Eastern Siberia. RSL data from the Laptev Sea shelf show RSL at -40- -45 m and 11-14 ka BP. RSL data from the Lena Delta and Tiksi region have a highstand from 5 to 1 ka BP. The research is supported by RSF project 17-77-10130

Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendriksen, Kåre

2011-01-01

Globalization and climate change challenges the Arctic communities adaptability and increases vulnerability Kåre Hendriksen, PhD student, Aalborg University, Denmark The previous isolation of the Arctic will change as a wide range of areas increasingly are integrated into the globalized world....... Coinciding climate changes cause an easier access for worldwide market as well as for the extraction of coastal oil and mineral resources. In an attempt to optimize the fishing fleet by economic measures it is centralized to larger units, and the exports of unprocessed fish and shellfish to low wage...... in contemporary developments leaving them with a feeling of being powerless. The consequences of contemporary policies and the problems arising will be illustrated through examples from traditional hunting and fishing districts in Greenland....

Increase in acidifying water in the western Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Di; Chen, Liqi; Chen, Baoshan; Gao, Zhongyong; Zhong, Wenli; Feely, Richard A.; Anderson, Leif G.; Sun, Heng; Chen, Jianfang; Chen, Min; Zhan, Liyang; Zhang, Yuanhui; Cai, Wei-Jun

2017-02-01

The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean decreases seawater pH and carbonate mineral aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), a process known as Ocean Acidification (OA). This can be detrimental to marine organisms and ecosystems. The Arctic Ocean is particularly sensitive to climate change and aragonite is expected to become undersaturated (Ωarag Pacific Winter Water transport, driven by an anomalous circulation pattern and sea-ice retreat, is primarily responsible for the expansion, although local carbon recycling and anthropogenic CO2 uptake have also contributed. These results indicate more rapid acidification is occurring in the Arctic Ocean than the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, with the western Arctic Ocean the first open-ocean region with large-scale expansion of `acidified’ water directly observed in the upper water column.

A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014

KAUST Repository

Eguíluz, Victor M.

2016-08-01

Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far.

Towards transdisciplinarity in Arctic sustainability knowledge co-production: Socially-Oriented Observations as a participatory integrated activity

Science.gov (United States)

Vlasova, Tatiana; Volkov, Sergey

2016-09-01

The paper is an attempt to tie together main biogeophysical and social science projects under the auspice of interdisciplinary sustainability science development. Special attention is put to the necessity of the transdisciplinary knowledge co-production based on activities and problem-solutions approaches. It puts attention to the role of monitoring activities in sustainability interdisciplinary science and transdisciplinary knowledge evolution in the Arctic. Socially focused monitoring named Socially-Oriented Observations creating a transdisciplinary space is viewed as one of sources of learning and transformations towards sustainability making possible to shape rapid changes happening in the Arctic based on sustainability knowledge co-production. Continuous Socially-Oriented Observations integrating scientific, education and monitoring methods enables to define adaptation and transformation pathways in the Arctic - the most rapidly changing region of our planet. Socially-Oriented Observations are based on the existing and developing interdisciplinary scientific approaches emerged within natural science and social science projects, sustainable development and resilience concepts putting principle attention to building sustainable and resilient socio-ecological systems. It is argued that the Arctic sustainability science is a valuable component of the whole and broader system of the Arctic Sustainability knowledge co-produced with the help of transdisciplinary approaches integrating science, local/traditional knowledge, entrepreneurship, education, decision-making. Socially-Oriented Observations are designed to be a transdisciplinary interactive continuous participatory process empowering deliberate choices of people that can shape the changes and enable transformation towards sustainability. Approaches of Socially-Oriented Observations and methods of implementation that have been developed since the IPY 2007/2008 and being practiced in different regions of the

Scenarios in Social-Ecological Systems: Co-Producing Futures in Arctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Lovecraft, A. L.; Eicken, H.

2016-12-01

Companies use scenarios to gain the capacity to think ahead in rapidly changing complex competitive environments and make crucial decisions in absence of complete information about the future. Currently, at many regional scales of governance there is a growing need for tools that enable the actors at local-scales to address pressing concerns in the midst of uncertainty. This is particularly true of areas experiencing rapidly changing environments (e.g., drought, floods, diminishing sea ice, erosion) and complex social problems (e.g., remote communities, resource extraction, threatened cultures). Resilience theory and deliberative democracy both promote governance by informed actors in an effort to produce decisions that avoid social-environmental collapse. The former focusing on resilient ecosystems, the latter on informed social choices. Scenario exercises produce neither forecasts of what is to come nor are they visions of what participants would like to happen. Rather, they produce pertinent and accurate information related to questions of "what would happen if…" and thus provide the possibility of strategic decision-making to reduce risk and promote community resilience. Scenarios can be forms of social learning and among local-scale experts they create a deliberative process to make decisions about proactive adaptation. This talk represents the results from two projects from Alaska's Arctic Slope region. Resident expert participants from the Northwest Arctic and North Slope Boroughs addressed the focal question "What is needed for healthy sustainable communities by 2040?" Our findings reinforce the growing evidence from studies related to Arctic community sustainability and human development that indicate tight connections between fate-control, health, and environmental change. Our work differs, however, in using a future studies approach. The participants are addressing social-ecological resilience from a proactive standpoint thinking long-term about local

 Climate Change and the Arctic Discourses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørst, Lill Rastad

2009-01-01

  It is now a fact that global warming and climate change are on the public agenda and will remain there for a long time to come. The Arctic has been portrayed as a thermometer for the world mostly because it is very vulnerable to the climatic changes and the subsequent consequences. Inuit are used...... as an example and included as the first witnesses to ‘the big catastrophe'. My hypothesis is that the newly emerging climate debate can establish an unexpected and unique political platform where Inuit can get influence on local as well as global questions. My investigating focus concerning these matters...

High resolution modelling of the decreasing Arctic sea ice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, K. S.; Rasmussen, T. A. S.; Blüthgen, Jonas

2012-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly decreasing and thinning over the last decade, with minimum ice extent in 2007 and almost as low extent in 2011. This study investigates two aspects of the decreasing ice cover; first the large scale thinning and changing dynamics of the polar sea ice, and...

Changes in Arctic sea ice result in increasing light transmittance and absorption

OpenAIRE

Nicolaus, Marcel; Katlein, Christian; Maslanik, J.; Hendricks, Stefan

2012-01-01

Arctic sea ice has declined and become thinner and younger (more seasonal) during the last decade. One consequence of this is that the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is changing. While the role of surface albedo has been studied intensively, it is still widely unknown how much light penetrates through sea ice into the upper ocean, affecting seaice mass balance, ecosystems, and geochemical processes. Here we present the first large-scale under-ice light measurem...

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

Winter temperature affects the prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sébastien Descamps

Full Text Available The Arctic is rapidly warming and host-parasite relationships may be modified by such environmental changes. Here, I showed that the average winter temperature in Svalbard, Arctic Norway, explained almost 90% of the average prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird, the Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia. An increase of 1°C in the average winter temperature at the nesting colony site was associated with a 5% increase in the number of birds infected by these ectoparasites in the subsequent breeding season. Guillemots were generally infested by only a few ticks (≤5 and I found no direct effect of tick presence on their body condition and breeding success. However, the strong effect of average winter temperature described here clearly indicates that tick-seabird relationships in the Arctic may be strongly affected by ongoing climate warming.

Aeolian stratigraphy describes ice-age paleoenvironments in unglaciated Arctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Groves, Pamela; Kunz, Michael L.; Farquharson, Louise M.; Reanier, Richard E.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Wooller, Matthew J.

2018-02-01

Terrestrial paleoenvironmental records with high dating resolution extending into the last ice age are rare from the western Arctic. Such records can test the synchronicity and extent of ice-age climatic events and define how Arctic landscapes respond to rapid climate changes. Here we describe the stratigraphy and sedimentology of a yedoma deposit in Arctic Alaska (the Carter Section) dating to between 37,000 and 9000 calibrated radiocarbon years BP (37-9 ka) and containing detailed records of loess and sand-sheet sedimentation, soil development, carbon storage, and permafrost dynamics. Alternation between sand-sheet and loess deposition provides a proxy for the extent and activity of the Ikpikpuk Sand Sea (ISS), a large dune field located immediately upwind. Warm, moist interstadial times (ca. 37, 36.3-32.5, and 15-13 ka) triggered floodplain aggradation, permafrost thaw, reduced loess deposition, increased vegetation cover, and rapid soil development accompanied by enhanced carbon storage. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 28-18 ka), rapid loess deposition took place on a landscape where vegetation was sparse and non-woody. The most intense aeolian activity occurred after the LGM between ca. 18 and 15 ka when sand sheets fringing the ISS expanded over the site, possibly in response to increasingly droughty conditions as summers warmed and active layers deepened. With the exception of this lagged LGM response, the record of aeolian activity at the Carter Section correlates with other paleoenvironmental records from unglaciated Siberia and Alaska. Overall, rapid shifts in geomorphology, soils, vegetation, and permafrost portray an ice-age landscape where, in contrast to the Holocene, environmental change was chronic and dominated by aeolian processes.

Spatial isses in Arctic marine resource governance workshop summary and comment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaiser, Brooks; Bakanev, Sergey; Bertelsen, Rasmus

2015-01-01

The rapidly changing Arctic marine ecosystems face new challenges and opportunities that are increasing and shifting governance needs in the region. A group of economists, ecologists, biologists, political scientists and resource managers met in Stockholm, SE, Sept 4–6, 2014 to discuss the govern...

Monitoring the welfare of polar bear populations in a rapidly changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.; Duncan, Colleen G.; Patyk, Kelly A.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.

2017-01-01

Most programs for monitoring the welfare of wildlife populations support efforts aimed at reaching discrete management objectives, like mitigating conflict with humans. While such programs can be effective, their limited scope may preclude systemic evaluations needed for large-scale conservation initiatives, like the recovery of at-risk species. We discuss select categories of metrics that can be used to monitor how polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are responding to the primary threat to their long-term persistence—loss of sea ice habitat due to the unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG; e.g., CO2) concentrations—that can also provide information on ecosystem function and health. Monitoring key aspects of polar bear population dynamics, spatial behavior, health and resiliency can provide valuable insight into ecosystem state and function, and could be a powerful tool for achieving Arctic conservation objectives, particularly those that have transnational policy implications.

Offshore hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic: from cooperation to confrontation in an era of geopolitical and economic turbulence?

OpenAIRE

Morgunova, Maria; Westphal, Kirsten

2016-01-01

The Arctic region has been an area of low tension since the end of the Cold War. This observation is important because the run on hydrocarbons in the Arctic has not resulted in increased rivalries as expected. The outcomes have been international joint ventures in oil and gas project on the economic side and a strengthening of Arctic governance in the political realm. Since 2014, the situation has changed rapidly. Economic interests in hydrocarbon development are increasingly diverging betwee...

Western Arctic Temperature Sensitivity Varies under Different Mean States

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, W.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.; Longo, W. M.; Giblin, A. E.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Hu, A.; Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere on earth. Predictions of future change, however, are hindered by uncertainty in the mechanisms that underpin Arctic amplification. Data from Beringia (Alaska and Eastern Siberia) are particularly inconclusive with regards to both glacial-interglacial climate change as well as the presence or absence of abrupt climate change events such as the Younger Dryas. Here we investigate temperature change in Beringia from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to present using a unique 30 kyr lacustrine record of leaf wax hydrogen isotope ratios (δDwax) from Northern Alaska. We evaluate our results in the context of PMIP3 climate simulations as well as sensitivity tests of the effects of sea level and Bering Strait closure on Arctic Alaskan climate. The amplitude of LGM cooling in Alaska (-3.2 °C relative to pre-industrial) is smaller than other parts of North America and areas proximal to LGM ice sheets, but similar to Arctic Asia and Europe. This suggests that the local feedbacks (vegetation, etc.) had limited impacts on regional temperatures during the last ice-age, and suggests most of the Arctic exhibited similar responses to global climate boundary conditions. Deglacial warming was superimposed by a series of rapid warming events that encompass most of the temperature increase. These events are largely synchronous with abrupt events in the North Atlantic, but are amplified, muted, or even reversed in comparison depending on the mean climate state. For example, we observe warming during Heinrich 1 and during the submergence of the Bering Land Bridge, which are associated with cooling in the North Atlantic. Climate modeling suggests that opening of the Bering Strait controlled the amplitude and sign of millennial-scale temperature changes across the glacial termination.

Ethics, Collaboration, and Presentation Methods for Local and Traditional Knowledge for Understanding Arctic Change

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, M. A.; Gearheard, S.; McNeave, C.

2009-12-01

Local and traditional knowledge (LTK) provides rich information about the Arctic environment at spatial and temporal scales that scientific knowledge often does not have access to (e.g. localized observations of fine-scale ecological change potentially from many different communities, or local sea ice and conditions prior to 1950s ice charts and 1970s satellite records). Community-based observations and monitoring are an opportunity for Arctic residents to provide ‘frontline’ observations and measurements that are an early warning system for Arctic change. The Exchange for Local Observations and Knowledge of the Arctic (ELOKA) was established in response to the growing number of community-based and community-oriented research and observation projects in the Arctic. ELOKA provides data management and user support to facilitate the collection, preservation, exchange, and use of local observations and knowledge. Managing these data presents unique ethical challenges in terms of appropriate use of rare human knowledge and ensuring that knowledge is not lost from the local communities and not exploited in ways antithetical to community culture and desires. Local Arctic residents must be engaged as true collaborative partners while respecting their perspectives, which may vary substantially from a western science perspective. At the same time, we seek to derive scientific meaning from the local knowledge that can be used in conjunction with quantitative science data. This creates new challenges in terms of data presentation, knowledge representations, and basic issues of metadata. This presentation reviews these challenges, some initial approaches to addressing them, and overall lessons learned and future directions.

Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

Science.gov (United States)

Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

2016-03-01

Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

The Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taylor, Mark A.; Zak, Bernard Daniel; Backus, George A.; Ivey, Mark D.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2008-11-01

The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with

Factors affecting projected Arctic surface shortwave heating and albedo change in coupled climate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, Marika M; Landrum, Laura

2015-07-13

We use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model to quantify simulated changes in the twentieth and twenty-first century Arctic surface shortwave heating associated with changing incoming solar radiation and changing ice conditions. For increases in shortwave absorption associated with albedo reductions, the relative influence of changing sea ice surface properties and changing sea ice areal coverage is assessed. Changes in the surface sea ice properties are associated with an earlier melt season onset, a longer snow-free season and enhanced surface ponding. Because many of these changes occur during peak solar insolation, they have a considerable influence on Arctic surface shortwave heating that is comparable to the influence of ice area loss in the early twenty-first century. As ice area loss continues through the twenty-first century, it overwhelms the influence of changes in the sea ice surface state, and is responsible for a majority of the net shortwave increases by the mid-twenty-first century. A comparison with the Arctic surface albedo and shortwave heating in CMIP5 models indicates a large spread in projected twenty-first century change. This is in part related to different ice loss rates among the models and different representations of the late twentieth century ice albedo and associated sea ice surface state. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Collaborations for Arctic Sea Ice Information and Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield Guy, L.; Wiggins, H. V.; Turner-Bogren, E. J.; Rich, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dramatic and rapid changes in Arctic sea ice require collaboration across boundaries, including between disciplines, sectors, institutions, and between scientists and decision-makers. This poster will highlight several projects that provide knowledge to advance the development and use of sea ice knowledge. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO: https://www.arcus.org/search-program/siwo) - SIWO is a resource for Alaskan Native subsistence hunters and other interested stakeholders. SIWO provides weekly reports, during April-June, of sea ice conditions relevant to walrus in the northern Bering and southern Chukchi seas. Collaboration among scientists, Alaskan Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission is fundamental to this project's success. Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN: https://www.arcus.org/sipn) - A collaborative, multi-agency-funded project focused on seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions. The goals of SIPN include: coordinate and evaluate Arctic sea ice predictions; integrate, assess, and guide observations; synthesize predictions and observations; and disseminate predictions and engage key stakeholders. The Sea Ice Outlook—a key activity of SIPN—is an open process to share and synthesize predictions of the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent and other variables. Other SIPN activities include workshops, webinars, and communications across the network. Directory of Sea Ice Experts (https://www.arcus.org/researchers) - ARCUS has undertaken a pilot project to develop a web-based directory of sea ice experts across institutions, countries, and sectors. The goal of the project is to catalyze networking between individual investigators, institutions, funding agencies, and other stakeholders interested in Arctic sea ice. Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH: https://www.arcus.org/search-program) - SEARCH is a collaborative program that advances research, synthesizes research findings, and broadly communicates the results to support

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

Science.gov (United States)

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-01-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1–4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment

Marine Mammals and Climate Change in the Pacific Arctic: Impacts & Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, S. E.

2014-12-01

Extreme reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness have become a hallmark of climate change, but impacts to the marine ecosystem are poorly understood. As top predators, marine mammals must adapt to biological responses to physical forcing and thereby become sentinels to ecosystem variability and reorganization. Recent sea ice retreats have influenced the ecology of marine mammals in the Pacific Arctic sector. Walruses now often haul out by the thousands along the NW Alaska coast in late summer, and reports of harbor porpoise, humpback, fin and minke whales in the Chukchi Sea demonstrate that these temperate species routinely occur there. In 2010, satellite tagged bowhead whales from Atlantic and Pacific populations met in the Northwest Passage, an overlap thought precluded by sea ice since the Holocene. To forage effectively, baleen whales must target dense patches of zooplankton and small fishes. In the Pacific Arctic, bowhead and gray whales appear to be responding to enhanced prey availability delivered both by new production and advection pathways. Two programs, the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR), include tracking of marine mammal and prey species' responses to ecosystem shifts associated with sea ice loss. Both programs provide an integrated-ecosystem baseline in support of the development of a web-based Marine Mammal Health Map, envisioned as a component of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). An overarching goal is to identify ecological patterns for marine mammals in the 'new' Arctic, as a foundation for integrative research, local response and adaptive management.

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Collaboration in Arctic Research: Best Practices to Build and Sustain Successful Cross- and Trans-disciplinary Efforts

Science.gov (United States)

Wiggins, H. V.; Rich, R. H.

2015-12-01

The rapid physical and social changes currently underway in the Arctic - and changes in the way in which we study and manage the region -- require coordinated research efforts to improve our understanding of the Arctic's physical, biological, and social systems and the implications of change at many scales. At the same time, policy-makers and Arctic communities need decision-support tools and synthesized information to respond and adapt to the "new Arctic". There are enormous challenges, however, in collaboration among the disparate groups of people needed for such efforts. A carefully planned strategic approach is required to bridge the scientific disciplinary and organizational boundaries, foster cooperation between local communities and science programs, and effectively communicate between scientists and policy-makers. Efforts must draw on bodies of knowledge from project management, strategic planning, organizational development, and group dynamics. This poster presentation will discuss best practices of building and sustaining networks of people to catalyze successful cross-disciplinary activities. Specific examples and case studies - both successes and failures -- will be presented that draw on several projects at the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS; www.arcus.org), a nonprofit membership organization composed of universities and institutions that have a substantial commitment to research in the Arctic.

Advancing NOAA NWS Arctic Program Development

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Meyers, J. C.; Churma, M.; Thoman, R.

2016-12-01

Environmental changes in the Arctic require changes in the way the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) delivers hydrological and meteorological information to prepare the region's societies and indigenous population for emerging challenges. These challenges include changing weather patterns, changes in the timing and extent of sea ice, accelerated soil erosion due to permafrost decline, increasing coastal vulnerably, and changes in the traditional food supply. The decline in Arctic sea ice is opening new opportunities for exploitation of natural resources, commerce, tourism, and military interest. These societal challenges and economic opportunities call for a NOAA integrated approach for delivery of environmental information including climate, water, and weather data, forecasts, and warnings. Presently the NOAA Arctic Task Force provides leadership in programmatic coordination across NOAA line offices. National Weather Service (NWS) Alaska Region and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provide the foundational operational hydro-meteorological products and services in the Arctic. Starting in 2016, NOAA's NWS will work toward improving its role in programmatic coordination and development through assembling an NWS Arctic Task Team. The team will foster ties in the Arctic between the 11 NWS national service programs in climate, water, and weather information, as well as between Arctic programs in NWS and other NOAA line offices and external partners. One of the team outcomes is improving decision support tools for the Arctic. The Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) currently has more than 1100 registered users, including NOAA staff and technical partners. The tool has been available online since 2013 (http://nws.weather.gov/lcat/ ). The tool links trusted, recommended NOAA data and analytical capabilities to assess impacts of climate variability and climate change at local levels. A new capability currently being developed will

Global Warming and the Arctic in 3D: A Virtual Globe for Outreach

Science.gov (United States)

Manley, W. F.

2006-12-01

Virtual Globes provide a new way to capture and inform the public's interest in environmental change. As an example, a recent Google Earth presentation conveyed 'key findings' from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA, 2004) to middle school students during the 2006 INSTAAR/NSIDC Open House at the University of Colorado. The 20-minute demonstration to 180 eighth graders began with an introduction and a view of the Arctic from space, zooming into the North American Arctic, then to a placemark for the first key finding, 'Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are projected'. An embedded link then opened a custom web page, with brief explanatory text, along with an ACIA graphic illustrating the rise in Arctic temperature, global CO2 concentrations, and carbon emissions for the last millennium. The demo continued with an interactive tour of other key findings (Reduced Sea Ice, Changes for Animals, Melting Glaciers, Coastal Erosion, Changes in Vegetation, Melting Permafrost, and others). Each placemark was located somewhat arbitrarily (which may be a concern for some audiences), but the points represented the messages in a geographic sense and enabled a smooth visual tour of the northern latitudes. Each placemark was linked to custom web pages with photos and concise take-home messages. The demo ended with navigation to Colorado, then Boulder, then the middle school that the students attended, all the while speaking to implications as they live their lives locally. The demo piqued the students' curiosity, and in this way better conveyed important messages about the Arctic and climate change. The use of geospatial visualizations for outreach and education appears to be in its infancy, with much potential.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

Emission of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindwall, Frida

, emitted in order to communicate within and between trophic levels and as protection against biotic and abiotic stresses, or as byproducts. Some BVOCs are very reactive, and when entering the atmosphere they rapidly react with for example hydroxyl radicals and ozone, affecting the oxidative capacity......Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from arctic ecosystems are scarcely studied and the effect of climate change on BVOC emissions even less so. BVOCs are emitted from all living organisms and play a role for atmospheric chemistry. The major part of BVOCs derives from plants...... in the atmosphere. This may warm the climate due to a prolonged lifetime of the potent greenhouse gas methane in the atmosphere. However, oxidized BVOCs may participate in formation or growth of aerosols, which in turn may mitigate climate warming. Climate change in the Arctic, an area characterized by short...

Radiative Transfer Modeling to Estimate the Impact of CDOM on Light Absorption within Changing Arctic Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Carns, R.; Light, B.; Frey, K. E.

2016-12-01

First-year sea ice differs from multi-year sea ice in several ways that can influence its optical properties. It is thinner than multi-year ice, which tends to increase light transmission. Also, first-year ice retains higher brine volumes in comparison to more heavily drained multi-year ice, in isolated pockets and channels. During melt season, patterns of pond formation on first-year sea ice differ from those on multi-year ice. As first-year sea ice comprises an increasingly large fraction of Arctic sea ice, it becomes more important to understand how much sunlight reaches the ecosystems within the ice, and how those changing ecosystems can feed back into the transmission of light. Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and chlorophyll within the ice can absorb light, heating the ice and reducing transmission to the ocean below. Light also encourages algal growth within the ice while degrading CDOM, creating complex feedbacks. We use radiative transfer models to determine the overall effect of colored dissolved organic matter on the light regime within sea ice, both on the overall amount of energy transmitted and on the spectral distribution of energy. Using models allows us to estimate the impact of varying CDOM levels on a wide range of sea ice types, improving our ability to respond to conditions in a rapidly changing Arctic and predict important phenomena such as algal blooms.

Inuit Perspectives on Arctic Environmental Change': A Traveling Exhibition

Science.gov (United States)

Sheffield, E. M.; Hakala, J. S.; Gearheard, S.

2006-12-01

The Inuit of Nunavut, Canada, have an intimate relationship with their surroundings. As a culture that relies on knowledge of sea ice, snow, and weather conditions for success in hunting, fishing, and healthy wellbeing, Inuit have observed and studied environmental patterns for generations. An ongoing study into their traditional knowledge and their observations of environmental change is being conducted by researcher Dr. Shari Gearheard, who has worked with Inuit communities in Nunavut for over a decade. The results of the research have been published in scientific journals, and to communicate the results to a broader audience, Dr. Gearheard designed an interactive CD-ROM displaying photographs, maps, and interview videos of Inuit Elders' perspectives on the changes they have witnessed. Receiving immediate popularity since its release in 2004, copies of `When the Weather is Uggianaqtuq: Inuit Observations of Environmental Change' have been distributed worldwide, to indigenous peoples, social science and climate change researchers, teachers, students, and the general public. To further disseminate the information contained on the CD-ROM, the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the Museum of Natural History, both of the University of Colorado, are partnering to create an exhibition which will open at the Museum during the International Polar Year in April 2008. The exhibit, tentatively titled `Inuit Perspectives on Arctic Environmental Change,' will feature photographs, graphics, and text in both English and Inuktitut describing environmental change in the North. The goals are to make the information and interpretation contained on the CD-ROM available and more accessible to a broad audience and to raise awareness about Arctic climate change and the important contribution of Inuit knowledge. Following exhibition at the Museum, the exhibit will travel throughout the United States, Alaska, and Nunavut, through a network of museums, schools, libraries, tribal

Integrating Access to Arctic Environmental Change and Human Health Research for the International Polar Year and Beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Garrett, C. L.

2006-12-01

Each day, people in the communities of the Arctic face challenges to their health and well-being from changing climatic and environmental conditions and increasing levels of pollution to emerging infectious diseases. For this reason, it is critical that Arctic researchers and residents have access to timely, accurate, and relevant information addressing their unique concerns. To meet this need, the National Library of Medicine (NLM) and the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) have developed the Arctic Health website, www.arctichealth.org. The website provides an easy-to-use one-stop shop for information on the diverse health-related aspects of the Arctic region. It is organized around relevant topics, including climate change and environmental health, traditional healing and telehealth/telemedicine. The Arctic Health website provides links to the most reliable resources available from local, state, and international agencies, universities, and professional organizations. Two major goals of the site are to create a comprehensive, accessible repository for various media and a listing of research projects, past and present that relate to climate change and human health in the Arctic. To increase the site's relevance, the project has established and continues to create collaborations with researchers, communities, and other organizations to supply publications not available elsewhere, including gray literature, streaming video of traditional healers, and oral histories. These collaborations will also help ensure a database with a comprehensive list of research projects being done in the Arctic, from the international to the local level. Finding ways to negotiate the legal, cultural and national concerns of data sharing are a continuing job for the management team. All of this helps to create a system that will eventually track and ensure that data and reports from the research database translate to the publications database. As part of these efforts, the site is

Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macdonald, R.W.; Harner, T.; Fyfe, J.

2005-01-01

The Arctic has undergone dramatic change during the past decade. The observed changes include atmospheric sea-level pressure, wind fields, sea-ice drift, ice cover, length of melt season, change in precipitation patterns, change in hydrology and change in ocean currents and watermass distribution. It is likely that these primary changes have altered the carbon cycle and biological systems, but the difficulty of observing these together with sporadic, incomplete time series makes it difficult to evaluate what the changes have been. Because contaminants enter global systems and transport through air and water, the changes listed above will clearly alter contaminant pathways. Here, we review what is known about recent changes using the Arctic Oscillation as a proxy to help us understand the forms under which global change will be manifest in the Arctic. For Pb, Cd and Zn, the Arctic is likely to become a more effective trap because precipitation is likely to increase. In the case of Cd, the natural cycle in the ocean appears to have a much greater potential to alter exposure than do human releases of this metal. Mercury has an especially complex cycle in the Arctic including a unique scavenging process (mercury depletion events), biomagnifying foodwebs, and chemical transformations such as methylation. The observation that mercury seems to be increasing in a number of aquatic species whereas atmospheric gaseous mercury shows little sign of change suggests that factors related to change in the physical system (ice cover, permafrost degradation, organic carbon cycling) may be more important than human activities. Organochlorine contaminants offer a surprising array of possibilities for changed pathways. To change in precipitation patterns can be added change in ice cover (air-water exchange), change in food webs either from the top down or from the bottom up (biomagnification), change in the organic carbon cycle and change in diets. Perhaps the most interesting

The Arctic Turn

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rahbek-Clemmensen, Jon

2018-01-01

In October 2006, representatives of the Arctic governments met in Salekhard in northern Siberia for the biennial Arctic Council ministerial meeting to discuss how the council could combat regional climate change, among other issues. While most capitals were represented by their foreign minister......, a few states – Canada, Denmark, and the United States – sent other representatives. There was nothing unusual about the absence of Per Stig Møller, the Danish foreign minister – a Danish foreign minister had only once attended an Arctic Council ministerial meeting (Arctic Council 2016). Møller......’s nonappearance did, however, betray the low status that Arctic affairs had in the halls of government in Copenhagen. Since the end of the Cold War, where Greenland had helped tie Denmark and the US closer together due to its geostrategically important position between North America and the Soviet Union, Arctic...

Cumulative effects of rapid climate and land-use changes on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, D. A.; Leibman, M. O.; Forbes, B. C.; Epstein, H. E.

2008-12-01

Our principal goal is to develop better, more far-looking tools to predict the cumulative effects of resource development, climate-change, and traditional land use. Here we use remote sensing, climate-change analyses, socio-economic analyses, and vegetation-change models to examine the cumulative effects of climate change, gas development, and reindeer herding on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia as part of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). We find: 1. Direct (planned) impacts of industrial activities on the Yamal Peninsula are currently local and limited in extent, but this is changing rapidly as extensive gas fields are developed and land and sea transportation corridors are developed to get the gas to market. Indirect impacts of the development at Bovanenkovo, the largest gas field, exceed the direct impacts by a factor of three, and the total area of influence of the development on the reindeer pasturelands (e.g., area where migration routes and access to pasturelands is affected) exceeds the direct impacts by a factor of about 40. 2. The trend in land-surface temperatures has co-varied with the trend in sea-ice. Low sea ice in the preceding December-March period is correlated to warmer land temperature the following summer. The sea- ice trends in the Kara Sea-Yamal region are tied to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 4. Only a small greening response to warming has been detected on the Yamal in comparison with some other areas in the Arctic (e.g. Northern Alaska). The actual effects of climate-change on vegetation are currently hard to document at the ground level because of lack of baseline and long-term ground observations and difficulty of excluding reindeer in these studies. 5. There is high potential for extensive landscape effects due to unstable sandy soils, and extremely ice-rich permafrost near the surface on slopes. 6. Two different vegetation modeling approaches are being used to predict

Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub-dominated ecosystems to changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Hoset, Katrine S; Olofsson, Johan

2015-09-01

Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

2012-12-01

The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been

Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

Science.gov (United States)

Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

2017-12-01

identify locations of both observed and expected rapid sea ice change. Based on satellite observations, the median length of the 2012 open-water season expanded by between 1.5 and 3-fold relative to 1979 over the Arctic Sea region. This results in open water during the stormy Arctic fall, with implications for not only coastal processes but for amplification of warming on land.

Wildfires in northern Eurasia affect the budget of black carbon in the Arctic - a 12-year retrospective synopsis (2002-2013)

Science.gov (United States)

N. Evangeliou; Y. Balkanski; WeiMin Hao; A. Petkov; R. P. Silverstein; R. Corley; B. L. Nordgren; Shawn Urbanski; S. Eckhardt; A. Stohl; P. Tunved; S. Crepinsek; A. Jefferson; S. Sharma; J. K. Nojgaard; H. Skov

2016-01-01

In recent decades much attention has been given to the Arctic environment, where climate change is happening rapidly. Black carbon (BC) has been shown to be a major component of Arctic pollution that also affects the radiative balance. In the present study, we focused on how vegetation fires that occurred in northern Eurasia during the period of 2002–2013 influenced...

Arctic circulation regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

2015-10-13

Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

“An Arctic Great Power”? Recent Developments in Danish Arctic Policy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rahbek-Clemmensen, Jon

2016-01-01

Denmark has been a firm advocate for Arctic cooperation in the recent decade, most importantly as the initiator of the 2008 Ilulissat meeting. Two new strategic publications – a foreign policy report (Danish Diplomacy and Defence in a Time of Change) and a defense report (The Ministry of Defence......’s Future Activities in the Arctic), which were published in May and June 2016 –highlight the Kingdom of Denmark’s status as “an Arctic great power” and the importance of pursuing Danish interests, which could indicate a shift away from a cooperation-oriented policy. This article investigates whether...... the documents represent a break in Danish Arctic policy. It argues that the two documents represent continuation, rather than change. They show that the High North continues to become steadily more important on the Danish foreign policy agenda, although the region remains just one of several regional priorities...

Environmental marine geology of the Arctic Ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mudie, P.J.

1991-01-01

The Arctic Ocean and its ice cover are major regulators of Northern Hemisphere climate, ocean circulation and marine productivity. The Arctic is also very sensitive to changes in the global environment because sea ice magnifies small changes in temperature, and because polar regions are sinks for air pollutants. Marine geology studies are being carried out to determine the nature and rate of these environmental changes by study of modem ice and sea-bed environments, and by interpretation of geological records imprinted in the sea-floor sediments. Sea ice camps, an ice island, and polar icebreakers have been used to study both western and eastern Arctic Ocean basins. Possible early warning signals of environmental changes in the Canadian Arctic are die-back in Arctic sponge reefs, outbreaks of toxic dinoflagellates, and pesticides in the marine food chain. Eastern Arctic ice and surface waters are contaminated by freon and radioactive fallout from Chernobyl. At present, different sedimentary processes operate in the pack ice-covered Canadian polar margin than in summer open waters off Alaska and Eurasia. The geological records, however, suggest that a temperature increase of 1-4 degree C would result in summer open water throughout the Arctic, with major changes in ocean circulation and productivity of waters off Eastern North America, and more widespread transport of pollutants from eastern to western Arctic basins. More studies of longer sediment cores are needed to confirm these interpretations, but is is now clear that the Arctic Ocean has been the pacemaker of climate change during the past 1 million years

Scaling Laws in Arctic Permafrost River Basins: Statistical Signature in Transition

Science.gov (United States)

Rowland, J. C.; Gangodagamage, C.; Wilson, C. J.; Prancevic, J. P.; Brumby, S. P.; Marsh, P.; Crosby, B. T.

2011-12-01

The Arctic landscape has been shown to be fundamentally different from the temperate landscape in many ways. Long winters and cold temperatures have led to the development of permafrost, perennially frozen ground, that controls geomorphic processes and the structure of the Arctic landscape. Climate warming is causing changes in permafrost and the active layer (the seasonally thawed surface layer) that is driving an increase in thermal erosion including thermokarst (collapsed soil), retrogressive thaw slumps, and gullies. These geomorphic anomalies in the arctic landscapes have not been well quantified, even though some of the landscape geomorphic and hydrologic characteristics and changes are detectable by our existing sensor networks. We currently lack understanding of the fundamental fluvio-thermal-erosional processes that underpin Arctic landscape structure and form, which limits our ability to develop models to predict the landscape response to current and future climate change. In this work, we seek a unified framework that can explain why permafrost landscapes are different from temperate landscapes. We use high resolution LIDAR data to analyze arctic geomorphic processes at a scale of less than a 1 m and demonstrate our ability to quantify the fundamental difference in the arctic landscape. We first simulate the arctic hillslopes from a stochastic space-filling network and demonstrate that the flow-path convergent properties of arctic landscape can be effectively captured from this simple model, where the simple model represents a landscape flowpath arrangement on a relatively impervious frozen soil layer. Further, we use a novel data processing algorithm to analyze landscape attributes such as slope, curvature, flow-accumulation, elevation-drops and other geomorphic properties, and show that the pattern of diffusion and advection dominated soil transport processes (diffusion/advection regime transition) in the arctic landscape is substantially different

AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

This assessment report presents the results of the 2013 AMAP Assessment of Arctic Ocean Acidification (AOA). This is the first such assessment dealing with AOA from an Arctic-wide perspective, and complements several assessments that AMAP has delivered over the past ten years concerning the effects of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and people. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is a group working under the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council Ministers have requested AMAP to: - produce integrated assessment reports on the status and trends of the conditions of the Arctic ecosystems;

Beyond Thin Ice: Co-Communicating the Many Arctics

Science.gov (United States)

Druckenmiller, M. L.; Francis, J. A.; Huntington, H.

2015-12-01

Science communication, typically defined as informing non-expert communities of societally relevant science, is persuaded by the magnitude and pace of scientific discoveries, as well as the urgency of societal issues wherein science may inform decisions. Perhaps nowhere is the connection between these facets stronger than in the marine and coastal Arctic where environmental change is driving advancements in our understanding of natural and socio-ecological systems while paving the way for a new assortment of arctic stakeholders, who generally lack adequate operational knowledge. As such, the Arctic provides opportunity to advance the role of science communication into a collaborative process of engagement and co-communication. To date, the communication of arctic change falls within four primary genres, each with particular audiences in mind. The New Arctic communicates an arctic of new stakeholders scampering to take advantage of unprecedented access. The Global Arctic conveys the Arctic's importance to the rest of the world, primarily as a regulator of lower-latitude climate and weather. The Intra-connected Arctic emphasizes the increasing awareness of the interplay between system components, such as between sea ice loss and marine food webs. The Transforming Arctic communicates the region's trajectory relative to the historical Arctic, acknowledging the impacts on indigenous peoples. The broad societal consensus on climate change in the Arctic as compared to other regions in the world underscores the opportunity for co-communication. Seizing this opportunity requires the science community's engagement with stakeholders and indigenous peoples to construct environmental change narratives that are meaningful to climate responses relative to non-ecological priorities (e.g., infrastructure, food availability, employment, or language). Co-communication fosters opportunities for new methods of and audiences for communication, the co-production of new interdisciplinary

A Recommended Set of Key Arctic Indicators

Science.gov (United States)

Stanitski, D.; Druckenmiller, M.; Fetterer, F. M.; Gerst, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Kenney, M. A.; Meier, W.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J.; Trainor, S.

2017-12-01

The Arctic is an interconnected and environmentally sensitive system of ice, ocean, land, atmosphere, ecosystems, and people. From local to pan-Arctic scales, the area has already undergone major changes in physical and societal systems and will continue at a pace that is greater than twice the global average. Key Arctic indicators can quantify these changes. Indicators serve as the bridge between complex information and policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public, revealing trends and information people need to make important socioeconomic decisions. This presentation evaluates and compiles more than 70 physical, biological, societal and economic indicators into an approachable summary that defines the changing Arctic. We divided indicators into "existing," "in development," "possible," and "aspirational". In preparing a paper on Arctic Indicators for a special issue of the journal Climatic Change, our group established a set of selection criteria to identify indicators to specifically guide decision-makers in their responses to climate change. A goal of the analysis is to select a manageable composite list of recommended indicators based on sustained, reliable data sources with known user communities. The selected list is also based on the development of a conceptual model that identifies components and processes critical to our understanding of the Arctic region. This list of key indicators is designed to inform the plans and priorities of multiple groups such as the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC), and the Arctic Council.

Does temporal variation of mercury levels in Arctic seabirds reflect changes in global environmental contamination, or a modification of Arctic marine food web functioning?

Science.gov (United States)

Fort, Jérôme; Grémillet, David; Traisnel, Gwendoline; Amélineau, Françoise; Bustamante, Paco

2016-04-01

Studying long-term trends of contaminants in Arctic biota is essential to better understand impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change on the exposure of sensitive species and marine ecosystems. We concurrently measured temporal changes (2006-2014) in mercury (Hg) contamination of little auks (Alle alle; the most abundant Arctic seabird) and in their major zooplankton prey species (Calanoid copepods, Themisto libellula, Gammarus spp.). We found an increasing contamination of the food-chain in East Greenland during summer over the last decade. More specifically, bird contamination (determined by body feather analyses) has increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Conversely, bird exposure to Hg during winter in the northwest Atlantic (determined by head feather analyses) decreased over the study period (at a rate of 1.5% per year), although winter concentrations remained consistently higher than during summer. By combining mercury levels measured in birds and zooplankton to isotopic analyses, our results demonstrate that inter-annual variations of Hg levels in little auks reflect changes in food-chain contamination, rather than a reorganization of the food web and a modification of seabird trophic ecology. They therefore underline the value of little auks, and Arctic seabirds in general, as bio-indicators of long-term changes in environmental contamination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Niels M.; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier

2017-01-01

How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how...... they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

2012-01-01

Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

The effects of climate changes on soil methane oxidation in a dry Arctic tundra

Science.gov (United States)

D'Imperio, Ludovica

2014-05-01

The effects of climate changes on soil methane oxidation in a dry Arctic tundra. Ludovica D'Imperio1, Anders Michelsen1, Christian J. Jørgensen1, Bo Elberling1 1Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark At Northern latitudes climatic changes are predicted to be most pronounced resulting in increasing active layer depth and changes in growing season length, vegetation cover and nutrient cycling. As a consequence of increased temperature, large stocks of carbon stored in the permafrost-affected soils could become available for microbial transformations and under anoxic conditions result in increasing methane production affecting net methane (CH4) budget. Arctic tundra soils also serves as an important sink of atmospheric CH4 by microbial oxidation under aerobic conditions. While several process studies have documented the mechanisms behind both production and emissions of CH4 in arctic ecosystems, an important knowledge gap exists with respect to the in situ dynamics of microbial-driven uptake of CH4 in arctic dry lands which may be enhanced as a consequence of global warming and thereby counterbalancing CH4 emissions from Arctic wetlands. In-situ methane measurements were made in a dry Arctic tundra in Disko Island, Western Greenland, during the summer 2013 to assess the role of seasonal and inter-annual variations in temperatures and snow cover. The experimental set-up included snow fences installed in 2012, allowed investigations of the emissions of GHGs from soil under increased winter snow deposition and ambient field conditions. The soil fluxes of CH4 and CO2 were measured using closed chambers in manipulated plots with increased summer temperatures and shrub removal with or without increased winter precipitation. At the control plots, the averaged seasonal CH4 oxidation rates ranged between -0.05 mg CH4 m-2 hr-1 (end of August) and -0.32 mg CH4 m-2 hr-1 (end of June). In the

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.

Science.gov (United States)

Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-06-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that

Patterned-ground facilitates shrub expansion in Low Arctic tundra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frost, Gerald V; Epstein, Howard E; Walker, Donald A; Matyshak, Georgiy; Ermokhina, Ksenia

2013-01-01

Recent expansion of tall shrubs in Low Arctic tundra is widely seen as a response to climate warming, but shrubification is not occurring as a simple function of regional climate trends. We show that establishment of tall alder (Alnus) is strongly facilitated by small, widely distributed cryogenic disturbances associated with patterned-ground landscapes. We identified expanding and newly established shrub stands at two northwest Siberian sites and observed that virtually all new shrubs occurred on bare microsites (‘circles’) that were disturbed by frost-heave. Frost-heave associated with circles is a widespread, annual phenomenon that maintains mosaics of mineral seedbeds with warm soils and few competitors that are immediately available to shrubs during favorable climatic periods. Circle facilitation of alder recruitment also plausibly explains the development of shrublands in which alders are regularly spaced. We conclude that alder abundance and extent have increased rapidly in the northwest Siberian Low Arctic since at least the mid-20th century, despite a lack of summer warming in recent decades. Our results are consistent with findings in the North American Arctic which emphasize that the responsiveness of Low Arctic landscapes to climate change is largely determined by the frequency and extent of disturbance processes that create mineral-rich seedbeds favorable for tall shrub recruitment. Northwest Siberia has high potential for continued expansion of tall shrubs and concomitant changes to ecosystem function, due to the widespread distribution of patterned-ground landscapes. (letter)

Pan-Arctic distributions of continental runoff in the Arctic Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Fichot, Cédric G; Kaiser, Karl; Hooker, Stanford B; Amon, Rainer M W; Babin, Marcel; Bélanger, Simon; Walker, Sally A; Benner, Ronald

2013-01-01

Continental runoff is a major source of freshwater, nutrients and terrigenous material to the Arctic Ocean. As such, it influences water column stratification, light attenuation, surface heating, gas exchange, biological productivity and carbon sequestration. Increasing river discharge and thawing permafrost suggest that the impacts of continental runoff on these processes are changing. Here, a new optical proxy was developed and implemented with remote sensing to determine the first pan-Arctic distribution of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and continental runoff in the surface Arctic Ocean. Retrospective analyses revealed connections between the routing of North American runoff and the recent freshening of the Canada Basin, and indicated a correspondence between climate-driven changes in river discharge and tDOM inventories in the Kara Sea. By facilitating the real-time, synoptic monitoring of tDOM and freshwater runoff in surface polar waters, this novel approach will help understand the manifestations of climate change in this remote region.

Arctic System Science: Meeting Earth System and Social Impact Challenges through Integrative Approaches and Synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Hinzman, L. D.; Rawlins, M. A.; Serreze, M. C.; Francis, J. A.; Liljedahl, A. K.; McDonald, K. C.; Piasecki, M.; Rich, R. H.; Holland, M. M.

2017-12-01

The Arctic is an integral part of the Earth system where multiple interactions unite its natural and human elements. Recent observations show the Arctic to be experiencing rapid and amplified signatures of global climate change. At the same time, the Arctic system's response to this broader forcing has itself become a central research topic, given its potential role as a critical throttle on future planetary dynamics. Changes are already impacting life systems and economic prosperity and continued change is expected to bear major implications far outside the region. We also have entered an era when environmental management, traditionally local in scope, must confront regional, whole biome, and pan-Arctic biogeophysical challenges. While challenges may appear to operate in isolation, they emerge within the context of an evolving, integrated Arctic system defined by interactions among natural and social sub-systems. Clearly, new efforts aimed at community planning, industrial development, and infrastructure construction must consider this multiplicity of interacting processes. We recently organized an "Arctic System Synthesis Workshop Series" supported by the Arctic Systems Science Program of NSF and devoted to exploring approaches capable of uncovering the systems-level behavior in both the natural and social sciences domains. The series featured two topical meetings. The first identified the sources responsible for extreme climate events in the Arctic. The second focused on multiple "currencies" within the system (i.e., water, energy, carbon, nutrients) and how they interact to produce systems-level behaviors. More than 40 experts participated, drawn from the ranks of Arctic natural and social sciences. We report here on the workshop series consensus report, which identifies a broad array of topics. Principal among these are a consideration of why study the Arctic as a system, as well as an articulation of the major systems-level approaches to support basic as well

Variations in the Sensitivity of Shrub Growth to Climate Change along Arctic Environmental and Biotic Gradients

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, P. S. A.; Myers-Smith, I. H.; Elmendorf, S.; Georges, D.

2015-12-01

Despite evidence of rapid shrub expansion at many Arctic sites and the profound effects this has on ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic, the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. The compilation of 41,576 annual shrub growth measurements made around the Arctic, allowed for the first systematic evaluation of the climate sensitivity of Arctic shrub growth, i.e. the strength of the relationship between annual shrub growth and monthly climate variables. The growth measurements were taken on 1821 plants of 25 species at 37 arctic and alpine sites, either as annual ring widths or as stem increments. We evaluated climate sensitivity of shrub growth for each genus-by-site combination in this data set based on the performance and parameters of linear mixed models that used CRU TS3.21 climate data as predictors of shrub growth between 1950 and 2010. 76% of genus-by-site combinations showed climate sensitive growth, but climate-growth relationships varied with soil moisture, species canopy height, and geographic position within the species ranges. Shrubs growing at sites with more soil moisture showed greater climate sensitivity, suggesting that water availability might limit shrub growth if continued warming isn't matched by a steady increase in soil moisture. Tall shrub species growing at their northern range limit were particularly climate sensitive causing climate sensitivity of shrubs to peak at the transition between Low and High Arctic, where carbon storage in permafrost is greatest. Local and regional studies have documented matching spatial and temporal patterns in dendrochronological measurements and satellite observations of vegetation indices both in boreal and Arctic regions. Yet the circumarctic comparison of patterns in dendrochronological and remote sensing data sets yielded poor levels of agreement. In much of the Arctic, steep environmental gradients generate fine spatial patterns of vegetation

Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Torkjel M. Sandanger

2011-11-01

Full Text Available In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed specifically considering their exposure and sensitivity to long range transported contaminants.Considering that the different parts of pregnancy are particularly sensitive time periods for the effects of environmental exposure, this review focuses on the impacts on maternal and newborn health. Environmental stressors known to affects human health and how these will change with the predicted climate change are addressed. Air pollution and food security are crucial issues for the pregnant population in a changing climate, especially indoor climate and food security in Arctic areas.The total number of environmental factors is today responsible for a large number of the global deaths, especially in young children. Climate change will most likely lead to an increase in this number. Exposure to the different environmental stressors especially air pollution will in most parts of the world increase with climate change, even though some areas might face lower exposure. Populations at risk today are believed to be most heavily affected. As for the persistent organic pollutants a warming climate leads to a remobilisation and a possible increase in food chain exposure in the Arctic and thus increased risk for Arctic populations. This is especially the case for mercury. The perspective for the next generations will be closely connected to the expected temperature changes; changes in housing conditions; changes in exposure patterns; predicted increased exposure to Mercury

The Arctic-Subarctic Sea Ice System is Entering a Seasonal Regime: Implications for Future Arctic Amplication

Science.gov (United States)

Haine, T. W. N.; Martin, T.

2017-12-01

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.

Sensitivity Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trends and Statistical Projections Using Satellite Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ge Peng

2018-02-01

Full Text Available An ice-free Arctic summer would have pronounced impacts on global climate, coastal habitats, national security, and the shipping industry. Rapid and accelerated Arctic sea ice loss has placed the reality of an ice-free Arctic summer even closer to the present day. Accurate projection of the first Arctic ice-free summer year is extremely important for business planning and climate change mitigation, but the projection can be affected by many factors. Using an inter-calibrated satellite sea ice product, this article examines the sensitivity of decadal trends of Arctic sea ice extent and statistical projections of the first occurrence of an ice-free Arctic summer. The projection based on the linear trend of the last 20 years of data places the first Arctic ice-free summer year at 2036, 12 years earlier compared to that of the trend over the last 30 years. The results from a sensitivity analysis of six commonly used curve-fitting models show that the projected timings of the first Arctic ice-free summer year tend to be earlier for exponential, Gompertz, quadratic, and linear with lag fittings, and later for linear and log fittings. Projections of the first Arctic ice-free summer year by all six statistical models appear to converge to the 2037 ± 6 timeframe, with a spread of 17 years, and the earliest first ice-free Arctic summer year at 2031.

The Arctic Vegetation Type Change retrieved from Spaceborne Observations and its Influence on the Simulation of Permafrost Thawing

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Y.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

The vegetation types change in Arctic has been studied using 10 years of MODIS land cover product (MCD12Q1). The shrub expansion is observed in Alaska and Northeast Asia, while shrub fraction decreases in North Canada and Southwest Arctic Eurasia. The total Arctic shrub fraction increases 3% in 10 years. The tundra decreases where the shrub expands, and thrives where the shrub retreats. In order to isolate the influence of the vegetation dynamic on the permafrost thawing, the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem in recent decades will be simulated using the Community Land Model (CLM) with and without the vegetation type changes. The energy and carbon exchange on the land surface will also be simulated and compared. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI, PN17081) and the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800).

DNA barcoding of Arctic Ocean holozooplankton for species identification and recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Bucklin, Ann; Hopcroft, Russell R.; Kosobokova, Ksenia N.; Nigro, Lisa M.; Ortman, Brian D.; Jennings, Robert M.; Sweetman, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

Zooplankton species diversity and distribution are important measures of environmental change in the Arctic Ocean, and may serve as 'rapid-responders' of climate-induced changes in this fragile ecosystem. The scarcity of taxonomists hampers detailed and up-to-date monitoring of these patterns for the rarer and more problematic species. DNA barcodes (short DNA sequences for species recognition and discovery) provide an alternative approach to accurate identification of known species, and can speed routine analysis of zooplankton samples. During 2004-2008, zooplankton samples were collected during cruises to the central Arctic Ocean and Chukchi Sea. A ˜700 base-pair region of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) gene was amplified and sequenced for 82 identified specimens of 41 species, including cnidarians (six hydrozoans, one scyphozoan), arthropod crustaceans (five amphipods, 24 copepods, one decapod, and one euphausiid); two chaetognaths; and one nemertean. Phylogenetic analysis used the Neighbor-Joining algorithm with Kimura-2-Parameter (K-2-P) distances, with 1000-fold bootstrapping. K-2-P genetic distances between individuals of the same species ranged from 0.0 to 0.2; genetic distances between species ranged widely from 0.1 to 0.7. The mtCOI gene tree showed monophyly (at 100% bootstrap value) for each of the 26 species for which more than one individual was analyzed. Of seven genera for which more than one species was analyzed, four were shown to be monophyletic; three genera were not resolved. At higher taxonomic levels, only the crustacean order Copepoda was resolved, with bootstrap value of 83%. The mtCOI barcodes accurately discriminated and identified known species of 10 taxonomic groups of Arctic Ocean holozooplankton. A comprehensive DNA barcode database for the estimated 300 described species of Arctic holozooplankton will allow rapid assessment of species diversity and distribution in this climate-vulnerable ocean ecosystem.

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J.

2013-02-07

The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

Arctic Climate Change: A Tale of Two Cod Species

Science.gov (United States)

Arctic cod play an important role in the Arctic trophic hierarchy as the consumer of primary productivity and a food source for many marine fish and mammals. Shifts in their distribution and abundance could have cascading affects in the marine environment. This paper investigates...

White Arctic vs. Blue Arctic: Making Choices

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Newton, R.; Schlosser, P.; Pomerance, R.; Tremblay, B.; Murray, M. S.; Gerrard, M.

2015-12-01

As the Arctic warms and shifts from icy white to watery blue and resource-rich, tension is arising between the desire to restore and sustain an ice-covered Arctic and stakeholder communities that hope to benefit from an open Arctic Ocean. If emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere continue on their present trend, most of the summer sea ice cover is projected to be gone by mid-century, i.e., by the time that few if any interventions could be in place to restore it. There are many local as well as global reasons for ice restoration, including for example, preserving the Arctic's reflectivity, sustaining critical habitat, and maintaining cultural traditions. However, due to challenges in implementing interventions, it may take decades before summer sea ice would begin to return. This means that future generations would be faced with bringing sea ice back into regions where they have not experienced it before. While there is likely to be interest in taking action to restore ice for the local, regional, and global services it provides, there is also interest in the economic advancement that open access brings. Dealing with these emerging issues and new combinations of stakeholders needs new approaches - yet environmental change in the Arctic is proceeding quickly and will force the issues sooner rather than later. In this contribution we examine challenges, opportunities, and responsibilities related to exploring options for restoring Arctic sea ice and potential pathways for their implementation. Negotiating responses involves international strategic considerations including security and governance, meaning that along with local communities, state decision-makers, and commercial interests, national governments will have to play central roles. While these issues are currently playing out in the Arctic, similar tensions are also emerging in other regions.

Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birgitta Evengard

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.

Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra arthropods using weather and seasonal variations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tulp, I.; Schekkerman, H.

2008-01-01

Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra Arthropods using weather and seasonal variation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tulp, I.Y.M.; Schekkerman, H.

2008-01-01

Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in an AOGCM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arzel, Olivier [University of New South Wales, Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Dufresne, Jean-Louis [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France)

2008-01-15

The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990-2010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic

Pan-Arctic Distribution of Bioavailable Dissolved Organic Matter and Linkages With Productivity in Ocean Margins

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yuan; Benner, Ronald; Kaiser, Karl; Fichot, Cédric G.; Whitledge, Terry E.

2018-02-01

Rapid environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean affect plankton productivity and the bioavailability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) that supports microbial food webs. We report concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and yields of amino acids (indicators of labile DOM) in surface waters across major Arctic margins. Concentrations of DOC and bioavailability of DOM showed large pan-Arctic variability that corresponded to varying hydrological conditions and ecosystem productivity, respectively. Widespread hot spots of labile DOM were observed over productive inflow shelves (Chukchi and Barents Seas), in contrast to oligotrophic interior margins (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Beaufort Seas). Amino acid yields in outflow gateways (Canadian Archipelago and Baffin Bay) indicated the prevalence of semilabile DOM in sea ice covered regions and sporadic production of labile DOM in ice-free waters. Comparing these observations with surface circulation patterns indicated varying shelf subsidies of bioavailable DOM to Arctic deep basins.

Species interactions and response time to climate change: ice-cover and terrestrial run-off shaping Arctic char and brown trout competitive asymmetries

Science.gov (United States)

Finstad, A. G.; Palm Helland, I.; Jonsson, B.; Forseth, T.; Foldvik, A.; Hessen, D. O.; Hendrichsen, D. K.; Berg, O. K.; Ulvan, E.; Ugedal, O.

2011-12-01

There has been a growing recognition that single species responses to climate change often mainly are driven by interaction with other organisms and single species studies therefore not are sufficient to recognize and project ecological climate change impacts. Here, we study how performance, relative abundance and the distribution of two common Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater fishes (brown trout and Arctic char) are driven by competitive interactions. The interactions are modified both by direct climatic effects on temperature and ice-cover, and indirectly through climate forcing of terrestrial vegetation pattern and associated carbon and nutrient run-off. We first use laboratory studies to show that Arctic char, which is the world's most northernmost distributed freshwater fish, outperform trout under low light levels and also have comparable higher growth efficiency. Corresponding to this, a combination of time series and time-for-space analyses show that ice-cover duration and carbon and nutrient load mediated by catchment vegetation properties strongly affected the outcome of the competition and likely drive the species distribution pattern through competitive exclusion. In brief, while shorter ice-cover period and decreased carbon load favored brown trout, increased ice-cover period and increased carbon load favored Arctic char. Length of ice-covered period and export of allochthonous material from catchments are major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of competitive interaction between these two freshwater lake top-predators. While projected climate change lead to decreased ice-cover, corresponding increase in forest and shrub cover amplify carbon and nutrient run-off. Although a likely outcome of future Arctic and sub-arctic climate scenarios are retractions of the Arctic char distribution area caused by competitive exclusion, the main drivers will act on different time scales. While ice-cover will change instantaneously with increasing temperature

Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

Science.gov (United States)

Cazenave, A. A.

2017-12-01

During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

Arctic Vortex changes alter the sources and isotopic values of precipitation in northeastern US

Science.gov (United States)

Puntsag, Tamir; Mitchell, Myron J.; Campbell, John L.; Klein, Eric S.; Likens, Gene E.; Welker, Jeffrey M.

2016-03-01

Altered atmospheric circulation, reductions in Arctic sea ice, ocean warming, and changes in evaporation and transpiration are driving changes in the global hydrologic cycle. Precipitation isotopic (δ18O and δ2H) measurements can help provide a mechanistic understanding of hydrologic change at global and regional scales. To study the changing water cycle in the northeastern US, we examined the longest (1968-2010) record of precipitation isotope values, collected at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, US (43o56‧N, 71o45‧W). We found a significant reduction in δ18O and δ2H values over the 43-year record, coupled with a significant increase in d-excess values. This gradual reduction in δ18O and δ2H values unexpectedly occurred during a period of regional warming. We provide evidence that these changes are governed by the interactions among the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, loss of Arctic sea ice, the fluctuating jet stream, and regular incursions of polar air into the northeastern US.

Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society (CLICHE)

Science.gov (United States)

Weckström, J.; Korhola, A.; Väliranta, M.; Seppä, H.; Luoto, M.; Tuittila, E.-S.; Leppäranta, M.; Kahilainen, K.; Saarinen, J.; Heikkinen, H.

2012-04-01

The predicted climate warming has raised many questions and concerns about its impacts on the environment and society. As a respond to the need of holistic studies comprising both of these areas, The Academy of Finland launched The Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (FICCA 2011-2014) in spring 2010 with the main aim to focus on the interaction between the environment and society. Ultimately 11 national consortium projects were funded (total budget 12 million EUR). Here we shortly present the main objectives of the largest consortium project "Climate change on arctic environment, ecosystem services and society" (CLICHE). The CLICHE consortium comprises eight interrelated work packages (treeline, diversity, peatlands, snow, lakes, fish, tourism, and traditional livelihoods), each led by a prominent research group and a team leader. The research consortium has three main overall objectives: 1) Investigate, map and model the past, present and future climate change-induced changes in central ecosystems of the European Arctic with unprecedented precision 2) Deepen our understanding of the basic principles of ecosystem and social resilience and dynamics; identify key taxa, structures or processes that clearly indicate impending or realised global change through their loss, occurrence or behaviour, using analogues from the past (e.g. Holocene Thermal Maximum, Medieval Warm Period), experiments, observations and models 3) Develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change on local communities, traditional livelihoods, fisheries, and tourism industry, and promote sustainable development of local community structures and enhance the quality of life of local human populations. As the project has started only recently no final results are available yet. However, the fieldwork as well as the co-operation between the research teams has thus far been very successful. Thus, the expectations for the final outcome of the project

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003-2100

Science.gov (United States)

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; T.S. Rupp; F.S. Chapin; J.E. Walsh

2009-01-01

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003-2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1)...

Arctic species resilience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Lars O.; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Jeppesen, Erik

The peak of biological activities in Arctic ecosystems is characterized by a relative short and intense period between the start of snowmelt until the onset of frost. Recent climate changes have induced larger seasonal variation in both timing of snowmelt as well as changes mean temperatures......, an extensive monitoring program has been conducted in the North Eastern Greenland National Park, the Zackenberg Basic. The objective of the program is to provide long time series of data on the natural innate oscillations and plasticity of a High Arctic ecosystem. With offset in the data provided through...

Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinzman, Larry D; Deal, Clara J; McGuire, A David; Mernild, Sebastian H; Polyakov, Igor V; Walsh, John E

2013-12-01

Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic system and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content.

Biogeochemical Indicators in High- and Low-Arctic Marine and Terrestrial Avian Community Changes: Comparative Isotopic (13C, 15N, and 34S) Studies in Alaska and Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Causey, D.; Bargmann, N. A.; Burnham, K. K.; Burnham, J. L.; Padula, V. M.; Johnson, J. A.; Welker, J. M.

2011-12-01

Understanding the complex dynamics of environmental change in northern latitudes is of paramount importance today, given documented rapid shifts in sea ice, plant phenology, temperatures, deglaciation, and habitat fidelity. This knowledge is particularly critical for Arctic avian communities, which are integral components by which biological teleconnections are maintained between the mid and northern latitudes. Furthermore, Arctic birds are fundamental to Native subsistence lifestyles and a focus for conservation activities. Avian communities of marine and terrestrial Arctic environments represent a broad spectrum of trophic levels, from herbivores (eg., geese Chen spp.), planktivores (eg., auklets Aethia spp.), and insectivores (eg., passerines: Wheatears Oenanthe spp., Longspurs Calcarius spp.), to predators of marine invertebrates (eg., eiders Somateria spp.), nearshore and offshore fish (eg., cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, puffins Fratercula spp.), even other bird species (eg., gulls Larus spp., falcons Peregrinus spp.). This diversity of trophic interconnections is an integral factor in the dynamics of Arctic ecosystem ecology, and they are key indicators for the strength and trajectories of change. We are especially interested in their feeding ecology, using stable isotope-diet relations to examine historical diets and to predict future feeding ecology by this range of species. Since 2009, we have been studying the foodweb ecology using stable isotopes (δ13C, δ15N, δ34S) of contemporaneous coastal and marine bird communities in High Arctic (Northwest Greenland) and Low Arctic (western Aleutian Islands, AK). We are quantifying the isotopic values of blood, organ tissues, and feathers, and have carried out comparisons between native and lipid-extracted samples. Although geographically distant, these communities comprise similar taxonomic and ecological congeners, including several species common to both (eg., Common Eider, Black-legged Kittiwake, Northern

Science Partnerships for a Sustainable Arctic: the Marine Mammal Nexus (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, S. E.

2010-12-01

Marine mammals are both icons of Arctic marine ecosystems and fundamental to Native subsistence nutrition and culture. Eight species are endemic to the Pacific Arctic, including the polar bear, walrus, ice seals (4 species), beluga and bowhead whales. Studies of walrus and bowheads have been conducted over the past 30 years, to estimate population size and elucidate patterns of movement and abundance. With regard to the three pillars of the SEARCH program, these long-term OBSERVATIONS provide a foundation for research seeking to UNDERSTAND and RESPOND to the effects of rapid climate change on the marine ecosystem. Specifically, research on the coastal ecosystem near Barrow, Alaska focuses on late-summer feeding habitat for bowheads in an area where whales are hunted in autumn. This work is a partnership among agency, academic and local scientists and the residents of Barrow, all of whom seek to better UNDERSTAND how recent dramatic changes in sea ice, winds and offshore industrial activities influence whale movements and behavior. In regard to RESPONDING to climate change, the nascent Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO) is a science partnership that projects sea ice and wind conditions for five villages in the Bering Strait region. The objective of the SIWO is to provide information on physical conditions in the marine environment at spatial and temporal scales relevant to walrus hunters. Marine mammals are a strong and dynamic nexus for partnerships among scientists, Arctic residents, resource managers and the general public - as such, they are essential elements to any science plan for a sustainable Arctic.

AROME-Arctic: New operational NWP model for the Arctic region

Science.gov (United States)

Süld, Jakob; Dale, Knut S.; Myrland, Espen; Batrak, Yurii; Homleid, Mariken; Valkonen, Teresa; Seierstad, Ivar A.; Randriamampianina, Roger

2016-04-01

In the frame of the EU-funded project ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society), MET Norway aimed 1) to describe the present monitoring and forecasting capabilities in the Arctic; and 2) to identify the key factors limiting the forecasting capabilities and to give recommendations on key areas to improve the forecasting capabilities in the Arctic. We have observed that the NWP forecast quality is lower in the Arctic than in the regions further south. Earlier research indicated that one of the factors behind this is the composition of the observing system in the Arctic, in particular the scarceness of conventional observations. To further assess possible strategies for alleviating the situation and propose scenarios for a future Arctic observing system, we have performed a set of experiments to gain a more detailed insight in the contribution of the components of the present observing system in a regional state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic NWP model using the AROME physics (Seity et al, 2011) at 2.5 km horizontal resolution - AROME-Arctic. Our observing system experiment studies showed that conventional observations (Synop, Buoys) can play an important role in correcting the surface state of the model, but prove that the present upper-air conventional (Radiosondes, Aircraft) observations in the area are too scarce to have a significant effect on forecasts. We demonstrate that satellite sounding data play an important role in improving forecast quality. This is the case with satellite temperature sounding data (AMSU-A, IASI), as well as with the satellite moisture sounding data (AMSU-B/MHS, IASI). With these sets of observations, the AROME-Arctic clearly performs better in forecasting extreme events, like for example polar lows. For more details see presentation by Randriamampianina et al. in this session. The encouraging performance of AROME-Arctic lead us to implement it with more observations and improved settings into daily runs with the objective to

Creating collaboration opportunities for marine research across the Arctic: The SEARCH-ACCESS partnership and an emerging sea ice prediction research network

Science.gov (United States)

Eicken, H.; Bitz, C. M.; Gascard, J.; Kaminski, T.; Karcher, M. J.; Kauker, F.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J. C.; Wiggins, H. V.

2013-12-01

Rapid Arctic environmental and socio-economic change presents major challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and the private sector. The Arctic Ocean and its ice cover, in particular, are in the midst of transformative change, ranging from declines in sea-ice thickness and summer ice extent to threats to coastal communities and increases in maritime traffic and offshore resource development. The US interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) and the European Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS) project are addressing both scientific research needs and stakeholder information priorities to improve understanding and responses to Arctic change. Capacity building, coordination and integration of activities at the international level and across sectors and stakeholder groups are major challenges that have to be met. ACCESS and SEARCH build on long-standing collaborations with a focus on environmental change in the Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system and the most pressing research needs to inform marine policy, resource management and threats to Arctic coastal communities. To illustrate the approach, key results and major conclusions from this international coordination and collaboration effort, we focus on a nascent sea-ice prediction research network. This activity builds on the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook that was initiated by SEARCH and the European DAMOCLES project (a precursor to ACCESS) and has now grown into an international community of practice that synthesizes, evaluates and discusses sea-ice predictions on seasonal to interannual scales. Key goals of the effort which is now entering into a new phase include the comparative evaluation of different prediction approaches, including the combination of different techniques, the compilation of reference datasets and model output, guidance on the design and implementation of observing system efforts to improve predictions and information transfer into private

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

2017-09-01

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks: On relationships between Arctic clouds, sea ice, and lower tropospheric stability

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, P. C.; Boeke, R.; Hegyi, B.

2017-12-01

Arctic low clouds strongly affect the Arctic surface energy budget. Through this impact Arctic low clouds influence other important aspects of the Arctic climate system, namely surface and atmospheric temperature, sea ice extent and thickness, and atmospheric circulation. Arctic clouds are in turn influenced by these Arctic climate system elements creating the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks. To further our understanding of the potential for Arctic cloud-climate feedbacks, we quantify the influence of atmospheric state on the surface cloud radiative effect (CRE). In addition, we quantify the covariability between surface CRE and sea ice concentration (SIC). This paper builds on previous research using instantaneous, active remote sensing satellite footprint data from the NASA A-Train. First, the results indicate significant differences in the surface CRE when stratified by atmospheric state. Second, a statistically insignificant covariability is found between CRE and SIC for most atmospheric conditions. Third, we find a statistically significant increase in the average surface longwave CRE at lower SIC values in fall. Specifically, a +3-5 W m-2 larger longwave CRE is found over footprints with 0% versus 100% SIC. Because systematic changes on the order of 1 W m-2 are sufficient to explain the observed long-term reductions in sea ice extent, our results indicate a potentially significant amplifying sea ice-cloud feedback that could delay the fall freeze-up and influence the variability in sea ice extent and volume, under certain meteorological conditions. Our results also suggest that a small change in the frequency of occurrence of atmosphere states may yield a larger Arctic cloud feedback than any cloud response to sea ice.

On the Arctic Ocean ice thickness response to changes in the external forcing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stranne, Christian; Bjoerk, Goeran [University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, Box 460, Goeteborg (Sweden)

2012-12-15

Submarine and satellite observations show that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has undergone a large thickness reduction and a decrease in the areal extent during the last decades. Here the response of the Arctic Ocean ice cover to changes in the poleward atmospheric energy transport, F{sub wall}, is investigated using coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean column models. Two models with highly different complexity are used in order to illustrate the importance of different internal processes and the results highlight the dramatic effects of the negative ice thickness - ice volume export feedback and the positive surface albedo feedback. The steady state ice thickness as a function of F{sub wall} is determined for various model setups and defines what we call ice thickness response curves. When a variable surface albedo and snow precipitation is included, a complex response curve appears with two distinct regimes: a perennial ice cover regime with a fairly linear response and a less responsive seasonal ice cover regime. The two regimes are separated by a steep transition associated with surface albedo feedback. The associated hysteresis is however small, indicating that the Arctic climate system does not have an irreversible tipping point behaviour related to the surface albedo feedback. The results are discussed in the context of the recent reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. A new mechanism related to regional and temporal variations of the ice divergence within the Arctic Ocean is presented as an explanation for the observed regional variation of the ice thickness reduction. Our results further suggest that the recent reduction in areal ice extent and loss of multiyear ice is related to the albedo dependent transition between seasonal and perennial ice i.e. large areas of the Arctic Ocean that has previously been dominated by multiyear ice might have been pushed below a critical mean ice thickness, corresponding to the above mentioned transition, and into a state dominated

Integrating STEM Place-Based, Culturally Responsive and Citizen Science Learning in Exploring the Impacts and Feedbacks of a Changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, E. B.; Spellman, K. V.; Fabbri, C.; Comiso, J. C.; Chase, M.; Fochesatto, G. J.; Butcher, C. E.; Jones, D.; Bacsujlaky, M.; Yoshikawa, K.; Gho, C. L.; Wegner, K.

2016-12-01

To build capacity in navigating challenges associated with a changing climate, learning in Arctic communities must not only increase STEM and climate change literacy, but also generate new knowledge as the rapid changes occur. Among the new NASA Science Mission Directorate Science Education projects, Arctic and Earth SIGNs (STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA assets) is providing opportunities for K-12 pre-service and in-service teachers, their students, and lifelong learners to engage in citizen science using the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) methods and culturally responsive learning to help address climate change challenges within their unique community, and contribute to hypothesis driven research. This project will weave traditional knowledge and western science, and use ground observations and satellite data and best teaching practices in STEM learning, supported through a NASA cooperative agreement and collaborative partnerships. Implementation will begin in rural Alaska and grow within Alaska and throughout the United States to reach underserved and STEM underrepresented populations, through face-to-face and on-line teaching and learning as well as building partnerships among educators, scientists, local and indigenous experts, institutions, agencies, and learning communities. Partners include research and teaching institutions at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the Association of Interior Native Educators, the North Slope Borough School District and other school districts, the Kenaitze Tribe Environmental Education program, NASA science education and research programs as well as those of NOAA and NSF, the GLOBE Implementation Office, the 4-H program and others. The program resources and model will be shared and disseminated within the United States and globally through partners for local, national and worldwide use in STEM climate change education and citizen empowerment.

Climate-induced behavioral changes influence exposure of an Arctic apex predator to pathogens and contaminants

Science.gov (United States)

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) may serve as sentinels for pathogens and contaminants, providing insight into changing Arctic ecosystems and health risks to wildlife and humans. Recent changes in the availability of sea ice habitat have coincided with increased use of land by polar bears from the sout...

Changes in Arctic and Boreal ecosystems of North America: Integrating Recent Results from the Field, Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Models

Science.gov (United States)

Goetz, S. J.; Rogers, B. M.; Mack, M. C.; Goulden, M.; Pastick, N. J.; Berner, L. T.; Fisher, J.

2017-12-01

The Arctic and boreal forest biomes have global significance in terms of climate feedbacks associated with land surface interactions with the atmosphere. Changes in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystem productivity and fire disturbance feedbacks have been well documented in recent years, but findings are often only locally relevant and are sometimes inconsistent among research teams. Part of these inconsistencies lie in utilization of different data sets and time periods considered. Integrated approaches are thus needed to adequately address changes in these ecosystems in order to assess consistency and variability of change, as well as ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency across spatial and temporal scales. Ultimately this can best be accomplished via multiple lines of evidence including remote sensing, field measurements and various types of data-constrained models. We will discuss some recent results integrating multiple lines of evidence for directional ecosystem change in the Arctic and boreal forest biomes of North America. There is increasing evidence for widespread spatial and temporal variability in Arctic and boreal ecosystem productivity changes that are strongly influenced by cycles of changing fire disturbance severity and its longer-term implications (i.e legacy effects). Integrated, multi-approach research, like that currently underway as part of the NASA-led Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (above.nasa.gov), is an effective way to capture the complex mechanisms that drive patterns and directionality of ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately determine feedbacks to environmental change, particularly in the context of global climate change. Additional ongoing ABoVE research will improve our understanding of the consequences of environmental changes underway, as well as increase our confidence in making projections of the ecosystem responses, vulnerability and resilience to change. ABoVE will also build a lasting legacy of

Propaganda, News, or Education: Reporting Changing Arctic Sea Ice Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Leitzell, K.; Meier, W.

2010-12-01

The National Snow and Ice Data Center provides information on Arctic sea ice conditions via the Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis (ASINA) website. As a result of this effort to explain climatic data to the general public, we have attracted a huge amount of attention from our readers. Sometimes, people write to thank us for the information and the explanation. But people also write to accuse us of bias, slant, or outright lies in our posts. The topic of climate change is a minefield full of political animosity, and even the most carefully written verbiage can appear incomplete or biased to some audiences. Our strategy has been to report the data and stick to the areas in which our scientists are experts. The ASINA team carefully edits our posts to make sure that all statements are based on the science and not on opinion. Often this means using some technical language that may be difficult for a layperson to understand. However, we provide concise definitions for technical terms where appropriate. The hope is that by communicating the data clearly, without an agenda, we can let the science speak for itself. Is this an effective strategy to communicate clearly about the changing climate? Or does it downplay the seriousness of climate change? By writing at a more advanced level and avoiding oversimplification, we require our readers to work harder. But we may also maintain the attention of skeptics, convincing them to read further and become more knowledgeable about the topic.

Arctic Glass: Innovative Consumer Technology in Support of Arctic Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ruthkoski, T.

2015-12-01

The advancement of cyberinfrastructure on the North Slope of Alaska is drastically limited by location-specific conditions, including: unique geophysical features, remoteness of location, and harsh climate. The associated cost of maintaining this unique cyberinfrastructure also becomes a limiting factor. As a result, field experiments conducted in this region have historically been at a technological disadvantage. The Arctic Glass project explored a variety of scenarios where innovative consumer-grade technology was leveraged as a lightweight, rapidly deployable, sustainable, alternatives to traditional large-scale Arctic cyberinfrastructure installations. Google Glass, cloud computing services, Internet of Things (IoT) microcontrollers, miniature LIDAR, co2 sensors designed for HVAC systems, and portable network kits are several of the components field-tested at the Toolik Field Station as part of this project. Region-specific software was also developed, including a multi featured, voice controlled Google Glass application named "Arctic Glass". Additionally, real-time sensor monitoring and remote control capability was evaluated through the deployment of a small cluster of microcontroller devices. Network robustness was analyzed as the devices delivered streams of abiotic data to a web-based dashboard monitoring service in near real time. The same data was also uploaded synchronously by the devices to Amazon Web Services. A detailed overview of solutions deployed during the 2015 field season, results from experiments utilizing consumer sensors, and potential roles consumer technology could play in support of Arctic science will be discussed.

Recent dynamics of arctic and sub-arctic vegetation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epstein, Howard E; Myers-Smith, Isla; Walker, Donald A

2013-01-01

We present a focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on the ‘Recent dynamics of arctic and sub-arctic vegetation’. The focus issue includes three perspective articles (Verbyla 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041003, Williams et al 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 041004, Loranty and Goetz 2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 011005) and 22 research articles. The focus issue arose as a result of heightened interest in the response of high-latitude vegetation to natural and anthropogenic changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and the consequences that these vegetation changes might have for northern ecosystems. A special session at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union Meeting on the ‘Greening of the Arctic’ spurred the call for papers. Many of the resulting articles stem from intensive research efforts stimulated by International Polar Year projects and the growing acknowledgment of ongoing climate change impacts in northern terrestrial ecosystems. (synthesis and review)

Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin

2017-12-01

A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

Implications of rapid environmental change for polar bear behavior and sociality

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.

2017-01-01

Historically, the Arctic sea ice has functioned as a structural barrier that has limited the nature and extent of interactions between humans and polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, declining sea ice extent, brought about by global climate change, is increasing the potential for human-polar bear interactions. Loss of sea ice habitat is driving changes to both human and polar bear behavior—it is facilitating increases in human activities (e.g., offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction, trans-Arctic shipping, recreation), while also causing the displacement of bears from preferred foraging habitat (i.e., sea ice over biologically productive shallow) to land in some portions of their range. The end result of these changes is that polar bears are spending greater amounts of time in close proximity to people. Coexistence between humans and polar bears will require imposing mechanisms to manage further development, as well as mitigation strategies that reduce the burden to local communities.

Climate of the Arctic marine environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, John E

2008-03-01

The climate of the Arctic marine environment is characterized by strong seasonality in the incoming solar radiation and by tremendous spatial variations arising from a variety of surface types, including open ocean, sea ice, large islands, and proximity to major landmasses. Interannual and decadal-scale variations are prominent features of Arctic climate, complicating the distinction between natural and anthropogenically driven variations. Nevertheless, climate models consistently indicate that the Arctic is the most climatically sensitive region of the Northern Hemisphere, especially near the sea ice margins. The Arctic marine environment has shown changes over the past several decades, and these changes are part of a broader global warming that exceeds the range of natural variability over the past 1000 years. Record minima of sea ice coverage during the past few summers and increased melt from Greenland have important implications for the hydrographic regime of the Arctic marine environment. The recent changes in the atmosphere (temperature, precipitation, pressure), sea ice, and ocean appear to be a coordinated response to systematic variations of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, superimposed on a general warming that is likely associated with increasing greenhouse gases. The changes have been sufficiently large in some sectors (e.g., the Bering/Chukchi Seas) that consequences for marine ecosystems appear to be underway. Global climate models indicate an additional warming of several degrees Celsius in much of the Arctic marine environment by 2050. However, the warming is seasonal (largest in autumn and winter), spatially variable, and closely associated with further retreat of sea ice. Additional changes predicted for 2050 are a general decrease of sea level pressure (largest in the Bering sector) and an increase of precipitation. While predictions of changes in storminess cannot be made with confidence, the predicted reduction of sea ice cover will

The relation between Arctic Ocean circulation and the Arctic Oscillation as revealed by satellite altimetry and gravimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Morison, J.; Kwok, R.; Peralta Ferriz, C.; Dickinson, S.; Morison, D.; Andersen, R.; Dewey, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic Ocean circulation is commonly characterized by the persistent anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre in the Canada Basin and the Transpolar Drift. While these are clearly important features, their role in changing Arctic Ocean circulation is at times distorted by sampling biases inherent in drifting buoy and standard shipboard measurements of western nations. Hydrographic measurements from SCICEX submarine cruises for science in the early 1990s revealed an increasingly cyclonic circulation along the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean related to the low sea level pressure pattern in the same region associated with a high Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. More recently satellite altimetry (ICESat and CryoSat2) and gravimetry (GRACE) have provided the basin-wide observational coverage needed to see shifts to increased cyclonic circulation in 2004 to 2008 and decreased cyclonic circulation in 2008 to 2015. These shifts are related to changes in the AO and are important for their effect on the trajectories of sea ice and freshwater through the Arctic Ocean.

Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Niels Martin; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier

2017-01-01

How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they ...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

Modelling micro- and macrophysical contributors to the dissipation of an Arctic mixed-phase cloud during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Loewe

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The Arctic climate is changing; temperature changes in the Arctic are greater than at midlatitudes, and changing atmospheric conditions influence Arctic mixed-phase clouds, which are important for the Arctic surface energy budget. These low-level clouds are frequently observed across the Arctic. They impact the turbulent and radiative heating of the open water, snow, and sea-ice-covered surfaces and influence the boundary layer structure. Therefore the processes that affect mixed-phase cloud life cycles are extremely important, yet relatively poorly understood. In this study, we present sensitivity studies using semi-idealized large eddy simulations (LESs to identify processes contributing to the dissipation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds. We found that one potential main contributor to the dissipation of an observed Arctic mixed-phase cloud, during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS field campaign, was a low cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC of about 2 cm−3. Introducing a high ice crystal concentration of 10 L−1 also resulted in cloud dissipation, but such high ice crystal concentrations were deemed unlikely for the present case. Sensitivity studies simulating the advection of dry air above the boundary layer inversion, as well as a modest increase in ice crystal concentration of 1 L−1, did not lead to cloud dissipation. As a requirement for small droplet numbers, pristine aerosol conditions in the Arctic environment are therefore considered an important factor determining the lifetime of Arctic mixed-phase clouds.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

A New Perspective on Changing Arctic Marine Ecosystems: Panarchy Adaptive Cycles in Pan-Arctic Spatial and Temporal Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wiese, F. K.; Huntington, H. P.; Carmack, E.; Wassmann, P. F. J.; Leu, E. S.; Gradinger, R.

2016-02-01

Changes in the physical/biological interactions in the Arctic are occurring across a variety of spatial and temporal scales and may be mitigated or strengthened based on varying rates of evolutionary adaptation. A novel way to view these interactions and their social relevance is through the systems theory perspective of "Panarchy" proposed by Gunderson and Holling. Panarchy is an interdisciplinary approach in which structures, scales and linkages of complex-adaptive systems, including those of nature (e.g. ocean), humans (e.g. economics), and combined social-ecological systems (e.g. institutions that govern natural resource use), are mapped across multiple space and time scales in continual and interactive adaptive cycles of growth, accumulation, restructuring and renewal. In complex-adaptive systems the dynamics at a given scale are generally dominated by a small number of key internal variables that are forced by one or more external variables. The stability of such a system is characterized by its resilience, i.e. its capacity to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially similar function, structure, identity and feedbacks. It is in the capacity of a system to cope with pressures and adversities such as exploitation, warming, governance restrictions, competition, etc. that resilience embraces human and natural systems as complex entities continually adapting through cycles of change. In this paper we explore processes at four linked spatial domains in the Arctic Ocean and link it to ecosystem resilience and re-organization characteristics. From this we derive a series of hypotheses concerning the biological responses to future physical changes and suggest ways how Panarchy theory can be applied to observational strategies to help detect early signs of environmental shifts affecting marine system services and functions. We close by discussing possible implications of the Panarchy framework for policy and governance.

Arctic Aerosols and Sources

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ingeborg Elbæk

2017-01-01

Since the Industrial Revolution, the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases has been increasing, leading to a rise in the global temperature. Particularly in the Arctic, climate change is having serious impact where the average temperature has increased almost twice as much as the global during......, ammonium, black carbon, and trace metals. This PhD dissertation studies Arctic aerosols and their sources, with special focus on black carbon, attempting to increase the knowledge about aerosols’ effect on the climate in an Arctic content. The first part of the dissertation examines the diversity...... of aerosol emissions from an important anthropogenic aerosol source: residential wood combustion. The second part, characterizes the chemical and physical composition of aerosols while investigating sources of aerosols in the Arctic. The main instrument used in this research has been the state...

Immune function in arctic mammals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Desforges, Jean-Pierre; Jasperse, Lindsay; Jensen, Trine Hammer

2018-01-01

Natural killer (NK) cells are a vital part of the rapid and non-specific immune defense against invading pathogens and tumor cells. This study evaluated NK cell-like activity by flow cytometry for the first time in three ecologically and culturally important Arctic mammal species: polar bear (Ursus...... the effector:target cell ratio increased. Comparing NK activity between fresh and cryopreserved mouse lymphocytes revealed little to no difference in function, highlighting the applicability of cryopreserving cells in field studies. The evaluation of this important innate immune function in Arctic mammals can...... contribute to future population health assessments, especially as pollution-induced suppression of immune function may increase infectious disease susceptibility....

Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kolk, van der Henk-Jan; Heijmans, M.M.P.D.; Huissteden, van J.; Pullens, J.W.M.; Berendse, F.

2016-01-01

Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated

Habitat-specific effects of climate change on a low-mobility Arctic spider species

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bowden, Joseph James; Hansen, Rikke Reisner; Olsen, Kent

2015-01-01

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are heterogeneous habitat mosaics of varying vegetation types that are differentially affected by climate change. Arctic plant communities, for example, are changing faster in moist habitats than in dry habitats and abiotic changes like snowmelt vary locally among...... was significantly related to the timing of snowmelt and differed significantly between the sexes and habitats with the spiders in the mesic habitat showing a stronger temporal response to later snowmelt. Juvenile/ female ratios also differed significantly between habitats; as did the overall abundance...

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

Science.gov (United States)

Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

2017-11-01

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to

Leptin and ghrelin in anadromous Arctic charr: cloning and change in expressions during a seasonal feeding cycle.

Science.gov (United States)

Frøiland, Eirik; Murashita, Koji; Jørgensen, Even Hjalmar; Kurokawa, Tadahide

2010-01-01

Anadromous (sea-migrating) Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) display pronounced seasonal variations in food intake and growth and is an interesting model for studying mechanisms of appetite regulation. In this study cDNAs encoding for ghrelin (GHRL) and leptin (LEP) in Arctic charr were cloned, after which stomach GHRL and liver LEP mRNA expressions were examined by qPCR during a seasonal feeding cycle of semi-wild anadromous Arctic charr. The fish were captured as they returned from summer feeding in seawater and transferred to an indoor tank where they were fed in excess until October the year after. Growth rate was low in late winter, increased in late spring and reached a peak during summer, and then declined during autumn, when the fish became sexually mature. The changes in growth rate were associated with corresponding changes in the proportion of fish that had been eating at each sampling date, and whole body lipid status. Stomach GHRL mRNA expression was high in late winter, decreased to a nadir in mid-summer and increased again to a high level in early autumn. Liver LEP mRNA remained low during winter, spring and early summer, after which there was a gradual, 7-fold increase until October. The seasonal changes in ghrelin and leptin support a role of these hormones in the long-term regulation of energy homeostasis in the anadromous Arctic charr. It cannot be excluded, however, that the increase in liver leptin expression during autumn is related to sexual maturation.

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the arctic (VACCA): Implementing recommendations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-07-01

This report provides recommendations for how Norway's government could move forward with the results from the Arctic Council supported VACCA project, suggesting how concrete activities may be implemented and applied to policy and practice. Based on the results of interviews with Arctic peoples and people involved in Arctic work, combined with desk studies of relevant literature, four Arctic contexts are defined within the dividing lines coastal/non-coastal and urban/non-urban. This report provides up to five concrete recommendations within each context, recommendations for cross-contextual action, and specific projects for further research and action.(auth)

Detecting change in seabird distributions at sea in arctic and sub-arctic waters over six decades

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjerdrum, Carina; Wong, Sarah; Johansen, Kasper Lambert

predictive models to investigate how ice cover and ocean processes influence the distribution thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia), northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), dovekie (Alle alle), and black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) in summer and autumn between Canada and Greenland. We used the PIROP data......In the western North Atlantic and eastern Arctic, data on the distribution and abundance of seabirds at sea have been collected by the Canadian Wildlife Service from two main survey programs using ships of opportunity. The first, PIROP (Programme intégré de recherches sur les oiseaux pélagiques...... to examine how the distribution of these four species has changed over the last six decades. We discuss the results in relation to ocean climate variability, but also the challenges that exist when comparisons span such long time periods, including monitoring programs with changing priorities, differences...

Genomics of Arctic cod

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Robert E.; Sage, George K.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Gravley, Megan C.; Menning, Damian; Talbot, Sandra L.

2017-01-01

identified species-specific markers and in conjunction with mitogenome data, identified an Arctic cod x Polar cod hybrid in western Canadian Beaufort Sea. Overall, the lack of genetic structure among Arctic cod within the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort seas of Alaska is concordant with the absence of geographic barriers to dispersal and typical among marine fishes. Arctic cod may exhibit a genetic pattern of isolation-by-distance, whereby populations in closer geographic proximity are more genetically similar than more distant populations. As this signal is only found between our two fartherest localities, data from populations elsewhere in the species’ global range are needed to determine if this is a general characteristic. Further, tests for selection suggested a limited role for natural selection acting on the mitochondrial genome of Arctic cod, but do not exclude the possibility of selection on genes involved in nuclear-mitogenome interactions. Unlike previous genetic assessment of Arctic cod sampled from the Chukchi Sea, the high levels of genetic diversity found in Arctic cod assayed in this study, across regions, suggests that the species in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas does not suffer from low levels of genetic variation, at least at neutral genetic markers. The large census size of Arctic cod may allow this species to retain high levels of genetic diversity. In addition, we discovered the presence of hybridization between Arctic and Polar cod (although low in frequency). Hybridization is expected to occur when environmental changes modify species distributions that result in contact between species that were previously separated. In such cases, hybridization may be an evolutionary mechanism that promotes an increase in genetic diversity that may provide species occupying changing environments with locally-adapted genotypes and, therefore, phenotypes. Natural selection can only act on the standing genetic variation present within a population. Therefore, given its

Games in the Arctic: applying game theory insights to Arctic challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott Cole

2014-08-01

Full Text Available We illustrate the benefits of game theoretic analysis for assisting decision-makers in resolving conflicts and other challenges in a rapidly evolving region. We review a series of salient Arctic issues with global implications—managing open-access fisheries, opening Arctic areas for resource extraction and ensuring effective environmental regulation for natural resource extraction—and provide insights to help reach socially preferred outcomes. We provide an overview of game theoretic analysis in layman's terms, explaining how game theory can help researchers and decision-makers to better understand conflicts, and how to identify the need for, and improve the design of, policy interventions. We believe that game theoretic tools are particularly useful in a region with a diverse set of players ranging from countries to firms to individuals. We argue that the Arctic Council should take a more active governing role in the region by, for example, dispersing information to “players” in order to alleviate conflicts regarding the management of common-pool resources such as open-access fisheries and natural resource extraction. We also identify side payments—that is, monetary or in-kind compensation from one party of a conflict to another—as a key mechanism for reaching a more biologically, culturally and economically sustainable Arctic future. By emphasizing the practical insights generated from an academic discipline, we present game theory as an influential tool in shaping the future of the Arctic—for individual researchers, for inter-disciplinary research and for policy-makers themselves.

Acoustic Resonance Reaction Control Thruster (ARCTIC), Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ORBITEC proposes to develop and demonstrate the innovative Acoustic Resonance Reaction Control Thruster (ARCTIC) to provide rapid and reliable in-space impulse...

The Impact of Climate Change on an Archaeological Site in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hollesen, Jørgen; Matthiesen, H.; Elberling, Bo

2017-01-01

Climate change may accelerate the degradation of archaeological sites in the Arctic and lead to a loss of important historical information. This study assesses the current preservation conditions and the processes controlling the physical and chemical stability of the Qajaa kitchen midden......, thermal and hydrological erosion and oxygen exposure may lead to substantial loss of archaeological evidence before the end of the 21st century....

A FIRE-ACE/SHEBA Case Study of Mixed-Phase Arctic Boundary Layer Clouds: Entrainment Rate Limitations on Rapid Primary Ice Nucleation Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Fridlin, Ann; vanDiedenhoven, Bastiaan; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Avramov, Alexander; Mrowiec, Agnieszka; Morrison, Hugh; Zuidema, Paquita; Shupe, Matthew D.

2012-01-01

Observations of long-lived mixed-phase Arctic boundary layer clouds on 7 May 1998 during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE)Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign provide a unique opportunity to test understanding of cloud ice formation. Under the microphysically simple conditions observed (apparently negligible ice aggregation, sublimation, and multiplication), the only expected source of new ice crystals is activation of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) and the only sink is sedimentation. Large-eddy simulations with size-resolved microphysics are initialized with IN number concentration N(sub IN) measured above cloud top, but details of IN activation behavior are unknown. If activated rapidly (in deposition, condensation, or immersion modes), as commonly assumed, IN are depleted from the well-mixed boundary layer within minutes. Quasi-equilibrium ice number concentration N(sub i) is then limited to a small fraction of overlying N(sub IN) that is determined by the cloud-top entrainment rate w(sub e) divided by the number-weighted ice fall speed at the surface v(sub f). Because w(sub c) 10 cm/s, N(sub i)/N(sub IN)<< 1. Such conditions may be common for this cloud type, which has implications for modeling IN diagnostically, interpreting measurements, and quantifying sensitivity to increasing N(sub IN) (when w(sub e)/v(sub f)< 1, entrainment rate limitations serve to buffer cloud system response). To reproduce observed ice crystal size distributions and cloud radar reflectivities with rapidly consumed IN in this case, the measured above-cloud N(sub IN) must be multiplied by approximately 30. However, results are sensitive to assumed ice crystal properties not constrained by measurements. In addition, simulations do not reproduce the pronounced mesoscale heterogeneity in radar reflectivity that is observed.

Examining the role of shrub expansion and fire in Arctic plant silica cycling

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, J.; Fetcher, N.; Parker, T.; Rocha, A. V.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

All terrestrial plants accumulate silica (SiO2) to some degree, although the amount varies by species type, functional group, and environmental conditions. Silica improves overall plant fitness, providing protection from a variety of biotic and abiotic stressors. Plant silica uptake serves to retain silica in terrestrial landscapes, influencing silica export rates from terrestrial to marine systems. These export rates are important because silica is often the limiting nutrient for primary production by phytoplankton in coastal waters. Understanding how terrestrial plant processes influence silica export rates to oceanic systems is of interest on the global scale, but nowhere is this issue more important than in the Arctic, where marine diatoms rely on silica for production in large numbers and terrestrial runoff largely influences marine biogeochemistry. Moreover, the rapid rate of change occurring in the Arctic makes understanding plant silica dynamics timely, although knowledge of plant silica cycling in the region is in its infancy. This work specifically examines how shrub expansion, permafrost thaw, and fire regimes influence plant silica behavior in the Alaskan Arctic. We quantified silica accumulation in above and belowground portions of three main tundra types found in the Arctic (wet sedge, moist acidic, moist non-acidic tundra) and scaled these values to estimate how shrub expansion alters plant silica accumulation rates. Results indicate that shrub expansion via warming will increase silica storage in Arctic land plants due to the higher biomass associated with shrub tundra, whereas conversion of tussock to wet sedge tundra via permafrost thaw would produce the opposite effect in the terrestrial plant BSi pool. We also examined silica behavior in plants exposed to fire, finding that post-fire growth results in elevated plant silica uptake. Such changes in the size of the terrestrial vegetation silica reservoir could have direct consequences for the rates

China and the Arctic: An Opportunity for the U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-04-06

of the lack of China’s sovereignty in the Arctic.15 Most academic writings focus on China’s need to voice an opinion concerning sea routes...effects that climate change in the Arctic will have on food production and extreme weather; (b) to ensure access at a reasonable cost to Arctic...21 Studying climate change and the Arctic will enable scholars to predict consequences to the environment, and potential effects on Chinese food

Advancing High Spatial and Spectral Resolution Remote Sensing for Observing Plant Community Response to Environmental Variability and Change in the Alaskan Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas Zesati, Sergio A.

The Arctic is being impacted by climate change more than any other region on Earth. Impacts to terrestrial ecosystems have the potential to manifest through feedbacks with other components of the Earth System. Of particular concern is the potential for the massive store of soil organic carbon to be released from arctic permafrost to the atmosphere where it could exacerbate greenhouse warming and impact global climate and biogeochemical cycles. Even though substantial gains to our understanding of the changing Arctic have been made, especially over the past decade, linking research results from plot to regional scales remains a challenge due to the lack of adequate low/mid-altitude sampling platforms, logistic constraints, and the lack of cross-scale validation of research methodologies. The prime motivation of this study is to advance observational capacities suitable for documenting multi-scale environmental change in arctic terrestrial landscapes through the development and testing of novel ground-based and low altitude remote sensing methods. Specifically this study addressed the following questions: • How well can low-cost kite aerial photography and advanced computer vision techniques model the microtopographic heterogeneity of changing tundra surfaces? • How does imagery from kite aerial photography and fixed time-lapse digital cameras (pheno-cams) compare in their capacity to monitor plot-level phenological dynamics of arctic vegetation communities? • Can the use of multi-scale digital imaging systems be scaled to improve measurements of ecosystem properties and processes at the landscape level? • How do results from ground-based and low altitude digital remote sensing of the spatiotemporal variability in ecosystem processes compare with those from satellite remote sensing platforms? Key findings from this study suggest that cost-effective alternative digital imaging and remote sensing methods are suitable for monitoring and quantifying plot to

Using an Environmental Intelligence Framework to Evaluate the Impacts of Ocean Acidification in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Mathis, J. T.; Baskin, M.; Cross, J.

2016-12-01

The highly productive coastal seas of the Arctic Ocean are located in areas that are projected to experience strong global change, including rapid transitions in temperature and ocean acidification-driven changes in pH and other chemical parameters. Many of the marine organisms that may be most intensely affected by ocean acidification (OA) and other environmental stressors contribute substantially to the commercial fisheries of the Bering Sea and traditional subsistence food supplies across the Arctic. This could represent a looming challenge in many communities as the average prevalence of household food insecurity and very low food security in Alaska are already 12 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. Here, we evaluate the patterns of dependence on marine resources within Alaska's Arctic that could be negatively impacted by OA and current community characteristics to assess the potential risk to the fishery sector from OA. We used a risk assessment framework to analyze an earth-system global model of ocean chemistry, fisheries harvest data, and demographic information. The analysis showed that regions around Alaska vary in their vulnerability to OA, but that each one will have to deal with possible impacts. Therefore, OA merits consideration in policy planning, as it may represent another challenge to Alaskan communities, some of which are already under acute socio-economic strains. With this in mind, we will present a number of adaptation strategies for communities living throughout Alaska's Arctic that could be applicable to other Arctic regions.

Estimation of Melt Ponds over Arctic Sea Ice using MODIS Surface Reflectance Data

Science.gov (United States)

Ding, Y.; Cheng, X.; Liu, J.

2017-12-01

Melt ponds over Arctic sea ice is one of the main factors affecting variability of surface albedo, increasing absorption of solar radiation and further melting of snow and ice. In recent years, a large number of melt ponds have been observed during the melt season in Arctic. Moreover, some studies have suggested that late spring to mid summer melt ponds information promises to improve the prediction skill of seasonal Arctic sea ice minimum. In the study, we extract the melt pond fraction over Arctic sea ice since 2000 using three bands MODIS weekly surface reflectance data by considering the difference of spectral reflectance in ponds, ice and open water. The preliminary comparison shows our derived Arctic-wide melt ponds are in good agreement with that derived by the University of Hamburg, especially at the pond distribution. We analyze seasonal evolution, interannual variability and trend of the melt ponds, as well as the changes of onset and re-freezing. The melt pond fraction shows an asymmetrical growth and decay pattern. The observed melt ponds fraction is almost within 25% in early May and increases rapidly in June and July with a high fraction of more than 40% in the east of Greenland and Beaufort Sea. A significant increasing trend in the melt pond fraction is observed for the period of 2000-2017. The relationship between melt pond fraction and sea ice extent will be also discussed. Key Words: melt ponds, sea ice, Arctic

Climate and man in the Arctic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

The ever-changing climate shapes the Arctic landscape, influences life conditions for plants and animals and alters the availability of the living resources that play such and important part in the economy of Arctic peoples. It is essential that we try to understand the nature of climatic change and its effects on man and his environment. Only this way can we hope to be able to predict future changes that may have great consequences for the well-being of northern residents. In recent years many research projects have been addressing the subject and important advances have been made. At the same time it has become increasingly evident that the complexity of the whole issue calls for an integration of scientific approaches and for interdisciplinary collaboration. The seminar 'Climate and Man in the Arctic' provided an opportunity both to highlight important areas of climate related research and to discuss more general aspects of arctic research. Eight papers presented at the seminar are published in this volume. (au) 22 refs

Repeat synoptic sampling reveals drivers of change in carbon and nutrient chemistry of Arctic catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Zarnetske, J. P.; Abbott, B. W.; Bowden, W. B.; Iannucci, F.; Griffin, N.; Parker, S.; Pinay, G.; Aanderud, Z.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients, and other solute concentrations are increasing in rivers across the Arctic. Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain these trends: 1. distributed, top-down permafrost degradation, and 2. discrete, point-source delivery of DOC and nutrients from permafrost collapse features (thermokarst). While long-term monitoring at a single station cannot discriminate between these mechanisms, synoptic sampling of multiple points in the stream network could reveal the spatial structure of solute sources. In this context, we sampled carbon and nutrient chemistry three times over two years in 119 subcatchments of three distinct Arctic catchments (North Slope, Alaska). Subcatchments ranged from 0.1 to 80 km2, and included three distinct types of Arctic landscapes - mountainous, tundra, and glacial-lake catchments. We quantified the stability of spatial patterns in synoptic water chemistry and analyzed high-frequency time series from the catchment outlets across the thaw season to identify source areas for DOC, nutrients, and major ions. We found that variance in solute concentrations between subcatchments collapsed at spatial scales between 1 to 20 km2, indicating a continuum of diffuse- and point-source dynamics, depending on solute and catchment characteristics (e.g. reactivity, topography, vegetation, surficial geology). Spatially-distributed mass balance revealed conservative transport of DOC and nitrogen, and indicates there may be strong in-stream retention of phosphorus, providing a network-scale confirmation of previous reach-scale studies in these Arctic catchments. Overall, we present new approaches to analyzing synoptic data for change detection and quantification of ecohydrological mechanisms in ecosystems in the Arctic and beyond.

Dissolved Fe in the Deep and Upper Arctic Ocean With a Focus on Fe Limitation in the Nansen Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Micha J. A. Rijkenberg

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Global warming resulting from the release of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is rapidly changing the Arctic Ocean. Over the last decade sea ice declined in extent and thickness. As a result, improved light availability has increased Arctic net primary production, including in under-ice phytoplankton blooms. During the GEOTRACES cruise PS94 in the summer of 2015 we measured dissolved iron (DFe, nitrate and phosphate throughout the central part of the Eurasian Arctic. In the deeper waters concentrations of DFe were higher, which we relate to resuspension on the continental slope in the Nansen Basin and hydrothermal activity at the Gakkel Ridge. The main source of DFe in the surface was the Trans Polar Drift (TPD, resulting in concentrations up to 4.42 nM. Nevertheless, using nutrient ratios we show that a large under-ice bloom in the Nansen basin was limited by Fe. Fe limitation potentially prevented up to 54% of the available nitrate and nitrite from being used for primary production. In the Barents Sea, Fe is expected to be the first nutrient to be depleted as well. Changes in the Arctic biogeochemical cycle of Fe due to retreating ice may therefore have large consequences for primary production, the Arctic ecosystem and the subsequent drawdown of carbon dioxide.

Developing an Arctic Observing Network: Looking Beyond Scientific Research as a Driver to Broader Societal Benefits as Drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffries, M. O.

2017-12-01

This presentation will address the first ever application of the Societal Benefit Areas approach to continuing efforts to develop an integrated pan-Arctic Observing Network. The scientific research community has been calling for an Arctic Observing Network since the early years of this century, at least. There is no question of the importance of research-driven observations at a time when rapid changes occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system are affecting people and communities in the Arctic and in regions far from the Arctic. Observations are need for continued environmental monitoring and change detection; improving understanding of how the system and its components function, and how they are connected to lower latitude regions; advancing numerical modeling capabilities for forecasting and projection; and developing value-added products and services for people and communities, and for decision- and policymaking. Scientific research is, without question, a benefit to society, but the benefits of Earth observations extend beyond scientific research. Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) were first described by the international Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and have since been used by USGEO as the basis for its National Earth Observation Assessments. The most recent application of SBAs to Earth observing realized a framework of SBAs, SBA Sub-areas, and Key Objectives required for the completion of a full Earth observing assessment for the Arctic. This framework, described in a report released in June 2017, and a brief history of international efforts to develop an integrated pan-Arctic Observing Network, are the subjects of this presentation.

Arctic Warming as News - Perils and Possibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Revkin, A. C.

2015-12-01

A science journalist in his 30th year covering human-driven climate change, including on three Arctic reporting trips, reflects on successes and setbacks as news media, environmentalists and Arctic communities have tried to convey the significance of polar change to a public for which the ends of the Earth will always largely be a place of the imagination.Novel challenges are arising in the 24/7 online media environment, as when a paper by a veteran climate scientist proposing a mechanism for abrupt sea-level rise became a big news story before it was accepted by the open-review journal to which it had been submitted. New science is digging in on possible connections between changing Arctic sea ice and snow conditions and disruptive winter weather in more temperate northern latitudes, offering a potential link between this distant region and the lives of ordinary citizens. As cutting-edge research, such work gets substantial media attention. But, as with all new areas of inquiry, uncertainty dominates - creating the potential for distracting the public and policymakers from the many aspects of anthropogenic climate change that are firmly established - but, in a way, boring because of that.With the challenges, there are unprecedented opportunities for conveying Arctic science. In some cases, researchers on expeditions are partnering with media, offering both scientists and news outlets fresh ways to convey the story of Arctic change in an era of resource constraints.Innovative uses of crittercams, webcams, and satellite observations offer educators and interested citizens a way to track and appreciate Arctic change. But more can be done to engage the public directly without the news media as an intermediary, particularly if polar scientists or their institutions test some of the established practices honed by more experienced communicators at NASA.

Changing Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions Impact Stream Chemistry and Ecology at the Arctic-Boreal Transition in Western Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, J. C.; Carey, M.; O'Donnell, J.; Sjoberg, Y.; Zimmerman, C. E.

2016-12-01

The arctic-boreal transition zone of Alaska is experiencing rapid change related to unprecedented warming and subsequent loss of permafrost. These changes in turn may affect groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystem processes. While recent field and modeling studies have improved our understanding of hydrology in watersheds underlain by thawing permafrost, little is known about how these hydrologic shifts will impact bottom-up controls on stream food webs. To address this uncertainty, we are using an integrative experimental design to link GW-SW interactions to stream biogeochemistry and biota in 10 first-order streams in northwest Alaska. These study streams drain watersheds that span several gradients, including elevation, aspect, and vegetation (tundra vs. forest). We have developed a robust, multi-disciplinary data set to characterize GW-SW interactions and to mechanistically link GW-SW dynamics to water quality and the stream ecosystem. Data includes soil hydrology and chemistry; stream discharge, temperature, and inflow rates; water chemistry (including water isotopes, major ions, carbon concentration and isotopes, nutrients and chlorophyll-a), and invertebrate and fish communities. Stream recession curves indicate a decreasing rate later in the summer in some streams, consistent with seasonal thaw in lower elevation and south-facing catchments. Base cation and water isotope chemistry display similar impacts of seasonal thaw and also suggest the dominance of groundwater in many streams. Coupled with estimates of GW-SW exchange at point, reach, and catchment scales, these results will be used to predict how hydrology and water quality are likely to impact fish habitat and growth given continued warming at the arctic-boreal transition.

Quantifying landscape change in an arctic coastal lowland using repeat airborne LiDAR

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Benjamin M.; Stoker, Jason M.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Grosse, Guido; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Douglas, Thomas A.; Kinsman, Nichole E.M.; Richmond, Bruce M.

2013-01-01

Increases in air, permafrost, and sea surface temperature, loss of sea ice, the potential for increased wave energy, and higher river discharge may all be interacting to escalate erosion of arctic coastal lowland landscapes. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired in 2006 and 2010 to detect landscape change in a 100 km2 study area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain of northern Alaska. We detected statistically significant change (99% confidence interval), defined as contiguous areas (>10 m2) that had changed in height by at least 0.55 m, in 0.3% of the study region. Erosional features indicative of ice-rich permafrost degradation were associated with ice-bonded coastal, river, and lake bluffs, frost mounds, ice wedges, and thermo-erosional gullies. These features accounted for about half of the area where vertical change was detected. Inferred thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion of coastal and river bluffs likely accounted for the dominant permafrost-related degradational processes with respect to area (42%) and volume (51%). More than 300 thermokarst pits significantly subsided during the study period, likely as a result of storm surge flooding of low-lying tundra (impact of warm summers in the late-1980s and mid-1990s. Our results indicate that repeat airborne LiDAR can be used to detect landscape change in arctic coastal lowland regions at large spatial scales over sub-decadal time periods.

Arctic Messages: Arctic Research in the Vocabulary of Poets and Artists

Science.gov (United States)

Samsel, F.

2017-12-01

Arctic Messages is a series of prints created by a multidisciplinary team designed to build understanding and encourage dialogue about the changing Arctic ecosystems and the impacts on global weather patterns. Our team comprised of Arctic researchers, a poet, a visual artist, photographers and visualization experts set out to blend the vocabularies of our disciplines in order to provide entry into the content for diverse audiences. Arctic Messages is one facet of our broader efforts experimenting with mediums of communication able to provide entry to those of us outside scientific of fields. We believe that the scientific understanding of change presented through the languages art will speak to our humanity as well as our intellect. The prints combine poetry, painting, visualization, and photographs, drawn from the Arctic field studies of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments research team at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The artistic team interviewed the scientists, read their papers and poured over their field blogs. The content and concepts are designed to portray the wonder of nature, the complexity of the science and the dedication of the researchers. Smith brings to life the intertwined connection between the research efforts, the ecosystems and the scientist's experience. Breathtaking photography of the research site is accompanied by Samsel's drawings and paintings of the ecosystem relationships and geological formations. Together they provide entry to the variety and wonder of life on the Arctic tundra and that resting quietly in the permafrost below. Our team has experimented with many means of presentation from complex interactive systems to quiet individual works. Here we are presenting a series of prints, each one based on a single thread of the research or the scientist's experience but containing intertwined relationships similar to the ecosystems they represent. Earlier interactive systems, while engaging, were not tuned to those seeking

Local air pollution in the Arctic: knowledge gaps, challenges and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Law, K.; Schmale, J.; Anenberg, S.; Arnold, S.; Simpson, W. R.; Mao, J.; Starkweather, S.

2017-12-01

It is estimated that about 30 % of the world's undiscovered gas and 13 % of undiscovered oil resources are located in the Arctic. Sea ice loss with climate change is progressing rapidly and by 2050 the Arctic could be nearly sea ice free in summer. This will allow for Arctic industrialization, commercial shipping, fishing and tourism to increase. Given that the world population is projected to grow beyond 9 billion by mid-century needing more resources, partly to be found in the Arctic, it can be expected that the current urbanization trend in the region will accelerate in the future. Against this background, it is likely that new local emission sources emerge which may lead to increased burdens of air pollutants such as particulate matter (PM), reactive nitrogen, and ozone. Typical Arctic emission sources include road transport, domestic fuel burning, diesel emissions, as well as industrial sources such as oil and gas extraction, metallurgical smelting, power generation as well as shipping in coastal areas. These emissions and their impacts remain poorly quantified in the Arctic. Boreal wildfires can already affect summertime air quality and may increase in frequency and size in a warmer climate. Locally produced air pollution, in combination with cold, stagnant weather conditions and inversion layers in winter, can also lead to significant localized pollutant concentrations, often in exceedance of air quality standards. Despite these concerns, very few process studies on local air pollution in or near inhabited areas in the Arctic have been conducted, which significantly limits our understanding of atmospheric chemical reactions involving air pollutants under Arctic conditions (e.g., extremely cold and dry air with little solar radiation in winter) and their impacts on human health and ecosystems. We will provide an overview of our current understanding of local air pollution and its impacts in Arctic urban environments and highlight key gaps. We will discuss a

Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alan J. Parkinson

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.

Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Alan J.; Evengard, Birgitta; Semenza, Jan C.; Ogden, Nicholas; Børresen, Malene L.; Berner, Jim; Brubaker, Michael; Sjöstedt, Anders; Evander, Magnus; Hondula, David M.; Menne, Bettina; Pshenichnaya, Natalia; Gounder, Prabhu; Larose, Tricia; Revich, Boris; Hueffer, Karsten; Albihn, Ann

2014-01-01

The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses. PMID:25317383

Meteorological conditions in the central Arctic summer during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Tjernström

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Understanding the rapidly changing climate in the Arctic is limited by a lack of understanding of underlying strong feedback mechanisms that are specific to the Arctic. Progress in this field can only be obtained by process-level observations; this is the motivation for intensive ice-breaker-based campaigns such as the Arctic Summer Cloud-Ocean Study (ASCOS, described here. However, detailed field observations also have to be put in the context of the larger-scale meteorology, and short field campaigns have to be analysed within the context of the underlying climate state and temporal anomalies from this.

To aid in the analysis of other parameters or processes observed during this campaign, this paper provides an overview of the synoptic-scale meteorology and its climatic anomaly during the ASCOS field deployment. It also provides a statistical analysis of key features during the campaign, such as key meteorological variables, the vertical structure of the lower troposphere and clouds, and energy fluxes at the surface. In order to assess the representativity of the ASCOS results, we also compare these features to similar observations obtained during three earlier summer experiments in the Arctic Ocean: the AOE-96, SHEBA and AOE-2001 expeditions.

We find that these expeditions share many key features of the summertime lower troposphere. Taking ASCOS and the previous expeditions together, a common picture emerges with a large amount of low-level cloud in a well-mixed shallow boundary layer, capped by a weak to moderately strong inversion where moisture, and sometimes also cloud top, penetrate into the lower parts of the inversion. Much of the boundary-layer mixing is due to cloud-top cooling and subsequent buoyant overturning of the cloud. The cloud layer may, or may not, be connected with surface processes depending on the depths of the cloud and surface-based boundary layers and on the relative strengths of surface-shear and

Hydrographic changes in the Lincoln Sea in the Arctic Ocean with focus on an upper ocean freshwater anomaly between 2007 and 2010

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Steur, L.; Steele, M.; Hansen, E.; Morison, J.; Polyakov, I.; Olsen, S.M.; Melling, H.; McLaughlin, F.A.; Kwok, R.; Smethie Jr., W.M.; Schlosser, P.

2013-01-01

Hydrographic data from the Arctic Ocean show that freshwater content in the Lincoln Sea, north of Greenland, increased significantly from 2007 to 2010, slightly lagging changes in the eastern and central Arctic. The anomaly was primarily caused by a decrease in the upper ocean salinity. In 2011

Simple Rules Govern the Patterns of Arctic Sea Ice Melt Ponds

Science.gov (United States)

Popović, Predrag; Cael, B. B.; Silber, Mary; Abbot, Dorian S.

2018-04-01

Climate change, amplified in the far north, has led to rapid sea ice decline in recent years. In the summer, melt ponds form on the surface of Arctic sea ice, significantly lowering the ice reflectivity (albedo) and thereby accelerating ice melt. Pond geometry controls the details of this crucial feedback; however, a reliable model of pond geometry does not currently exist. Here we show that a simple model of voids surrounding randomly sized and placed overlapping circles reproduces the essential features of pond patterns. The only two model parameters, characteristic circle radius and coverage fraction, are chosen by comparing, between the model and the aerial photographs of the ponds, two correlation functions which determine the typical pond size and their connectedness. Using these parameters, the void model robustly reproduces the ponds' area-perimeter and area-abundance relationships over more than 6 orders of magnitude. By analyzing the correlation functions of ponds on several dates, we also find that the pond scale and the connectedness are surprisingly constant across different years and ice types. Moreover, we find that ponds resemble percolation clusters near the percolation threshold. These results demonstrate that the geometry and abundance of Arctic melt ponds can be simply described, which can be exploited in future models of Arctic melt ponds that would improve predictions of the response of sea ice to Arctic warming.

Simple Rules Govern the Patterns of Arctic Sea Ice Melt Ponds.

Science.gov (United States)

Popović, Predrag; Cael, B B; Silber, Mary; Abbot, Dorian S

2018-04-06

Climate change, amplified in the far north, has led to rapid sea ice decline in recent years. In the summer, melt ponds form on the surface of Arctic sea ice, significantly lowering the ice reflectivity (albedo) and thereby accelerating ice melt. Pond geometry controls the details of this crucial feedback; however, a reliable model of pond geometry does not currently exist. Here we show that a simple model of voids surrounding randomly sized and placed overlapping circles reproduces the essential features of pond patterns. The only two model parameters, characteristic circle radius and coverage fraction, are chosen by comparing, between the model and the aerial photographs of the ponds, two correlation functions which determine the typical pond size and their connectedness. Using these parameters, the void model robustly reproduces the ponds' area-perimeter and area-abundance relationships over more than 6 orders of magnitude. By analyzing the correlation functions of ponds on several dates, we also find that the pond scale and the connectedness are surprisingly constant across different years and ice types. Moreover, we find that ponds resemble percolation clusters near the percolation threshold. These results demonstrate that the geometry and abundance of Arctic melt ponds can be simply described, which can be exploited in future models of Arctic melt ponds that would improve predictions of the response of sea ice to Arctic warming.

Transcriptomic Markers of Lipid Synthesis and Deposition in the Arctic Planktonic Copepod Calanus glacialis

Science.gov (United States)

Bucklin, A. C.; Tarrant, A. M.; DiVito, K. R.; Reese, B.; O'Neill, R. J.; Knutsen, T.; Wiebe, P. H.

2016-02-01

The zooplankton assemblage of the Arctic Ocean is directly impacted by the rapid climate shifts, including warming, loss of ice cover, and changes in the composition of the pelagic assemblage at all trophic levels. Arctic zooplankton species will likely exhibit the full range of responses, including acclimation, adaptation, biogeographical range shifts, and local extinction. The copepod Calanus glacialis has been characterized as an opportunistic species that can switch between active feeding (on either phytoplankton or ice algae) and use of stored energy reserves, including both long-term stores of wax esters in a lipid sac and more dynamic reservoirs of triglycerides throughout the body. This study examined differential expression of selected genes associated with lipid synthesis and deposition pathways in field-caught specimens of C. glacialis. Samples were collected in shelf and offshore regions north and west of Svalbard (Norway) during an August-September, 2015 cruise of the R/V Helmer-Hanssen associated with the SI_Arctic program. Specimens of C. glacialis were photographed to allow analysis of lipid sac volume, and then flash-frozen in liquid nitrogen for analysis of differential gene expression by quantitative PCR (qPCR). The goal of this effort is to use transcriptomic markers to understand how C. glacialis may respond to warming temperatures and changes in time/space patterns of food availability. Our hypothesis is that C. glacialis may exhibit opportunistic life history patterns and physiological responses that pre-adapt the species to acclimation and/or adaptation to environmental variation associated with climate change in Arctic regions.

Space-for-time substitution in predicting the state of picoplankton and nanoplankton in a changing Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Li, William K. W.; Carmack, Eddy C.; McLaughlin, Fiona A.; Nelson, R. John; Williams, William J.

2013-10-01

The Arctic Ocean is changing rapidly but there are no long-term time series observations on the state of the phytoplankton community that could allow a link to be made from physical/chemical pressures to the impact on marine ecosystems. Here, we test the idea that space-for-time (SFT) substitution might predict temporal change in the Canada Basin premised on differences in the present state of phytoplankton in other geographic zones, specifically the ratio in the abundance of picophytoplankton to nanophytoplankton (Pico:Nano). We compared the change in Pico:Nano observed in the Canada Basin from 2004 to 2012 to the different average states of this ratio in 26 other ocean ecological regions. Our results show that as upper ocean nitrate concentration changed in the Canada Basin from year to year, the concomitant change in Pico:Nano was statistically commensurate with the difference that this ratio exhibits between Longhurst ecological provinces in relation to nitrate concentration. Lower average concentration of nitrate in the upper water column is associated with a higher value of Pico:Nano, a result consistent with resource control of phytoplankton size structure in the ocean. We suggest that SFT substitution allows an explanation of temporal progression from spatial pattern as a test of mechanism, but such statistical prediction is not necessarily a projection of future states.

Arctic sea ice a major determinant in Mandt's black guillemot movement and distribution during non-breeding season

Science.gov (United States)

Divoky, G.J.; Douglas, David C.; Stenhouse, I. J.

2016-01-01

Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii) is one of the few seabirds associated in all seasons with Arctic sea ice, a habitat that is changing rapidly. Recent decreases in summer ice have reduced breeding success and colony size of this species in Arctic Alaska. Little is known about the species' movements and distribution during the nine month non-breeding period (September–May), when changes in sea ice extent and composition are also occurring and predicted to continue. To examine bird movements and the seasonal role of sea ice to non-breeding Mandt's black guillemots, we deployed and recovered (n = 45) geolocators on individuals at a breeding colony in Arctic Alaska during 2011–2015. Black guillemots moved north to the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas immediately after breeding, moved south to the Bering Sea during freeze-up in December, and wintered in the Bering Sea January–April. Most birds occupied the MIZ in regions averaging 30–60% sea ice concentration, with little seasonal variation. Birds regularly roosted on ice in all seasons averaging 5 h d−1, primarily at night. By using the MIZ, with its roosting opportunities and associated prey, black guillemots can remain in the Arctic during winter when littoral waters are completely covered by ice.

U.S. Arctic research in a technological age

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, P.L.

1993-01-01

The United States Arctic Research Commission was established in 1984 primarily as an advisory agency. An Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee is one of the main recipients of the Commission's recommendations. The Committee formulated an Arctic research policy calling for research focused on national security concerns, regional development with minimal environmental or adverse social impact, and scientific research on Arctic phenomena and processes. In basic science, emphasis is placed on the need to understand Arctic processes as part of the global earth system. These processes include those that affect and are affected by climatic change. A new research program in Arctic systems science has three components: paleoenvironmental studies on ice core from Greenland; ocean-atmosphere interactions; and land-atmosphere interactions. The Commission also recognizes a need to focus on issues relevant to the Arctic as an integral component of the world economic system, since the Arctic is a significant source of petroleum and minerals. The Commission recommended that the Committee develop an Arctic engineering research plan with emphasis on such topics as oil spill prevention, waste disposal, small-scale power generation, and Arctic construction techniques. The USA is also cooperating in international Arctic research through the International Arctic Science Committee, the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, and the North Pacific Marine Science Organization

An Autonomous Approach to Observing the Seasonal Ice Zone in the Western Arctic

OpenAIRE

Lee, Craig M.; Thomson, Jim

2017-01-01

The Marginal Ice Zone and Arctic Sea State programs examined the processes that govern evolution of the rapidly changing seasonal ice zone in the Beaufort Sea. Autonomous platforms operating from the ice and within the water column collected measurements across the atmosphere-ice-ocean system and provided the persistence to sample continuously through the springtime retreat and autumn advance of sea ice. Autonomous platforms also allowed operational modalities that reduced the field programs’...

Arctic-HYCOS: a Large Sample observing system for estimating freshwater fluxes in the drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Pietroniro, Al; Korhonen, Johanna; Looser, Ulrich; Hardardóttir, Jórunn; Johnsrud, Morten; Vuglinsky, Valery; Gustafsson, David; Lins, Harry F.; Conaway, Jeffrey S.; Lammers, Richard; Stewart, Bruce; Abrate, Tommaso; Pilon, Paul; Sighomnou, Daniel; Arheimer, Berit

2015-04-01

The Arctic region is an important regulating component of the global climate system, and is also experiencing a considerable change during recent decades. More than 10% of world's river-runoff flows to the Arctic Ocean and there is evidence of changes in its fresh-water balance. However, about 30% of the Arctic basin is still ungauged, with differing monitoring practices and data availability from the countries in the region. A consistent system for monitoring and sharing of hydrological information throughout the Arctic region is thus of highest interest for further studies and monitoring of the freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean. The purpose of the Arctic-HYCOS project is to allow for collection and sharing of hydrological data. Preliminary 616 stations were identified with long-term daily discharge data available, and around 250 of these already provide online available data in near real time. This large sample will be used in the following scientific analysis: 1) to evaluate freshwater flux to the Arctic Ocean and Seas, 2) to monitor changes and enhance understanding of the hydrological regime and 3) to estimate flows in ungauged regions and develop models for enhanced hydrological prediction in the Arctic region. The project is intended as a component of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) WHYCOS (World Hydrological Cycle Observing System) initiative, covering the area of the expansive transnational Arctic basin with participation from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russian Federation, Sweden and United States of America. The overall objective is to regularly collect, manage and share high quality data from a defined basic network of hydrological stations in the Arctic basin. The project focus on collecting data on discharge and possibly sediment transport and temperature. Data should be provisional in near-real time if available, whereas time-series of historical data should be provided once quality assurance has been completed. The

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

2012-05-01

An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

Evolution of anomalies of salinity of surface waters of Arctic Ocean and their possible influence on climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Popov, A.; Rubchenia, A.

2009-04-01

Numerous of model simulations of ice extent in Arctic Ocean predict almost full disappearance of sea ice in Arctic regions by 2050. However, the nature, as against models, does not suffer the unidirectional processes. By means of various feedback responses system aspires to come in an equilibrium condition. In Arctic regions one of the most powerful generators of a negative feedback is the fresh-water stream to Greenland Sea and Northern Atlantic. Increasing or decreasing of a fresh-water volume from the Arctic basin to Greenland Sea and Northern Atlantic results in significant changes in climatic system. At the Oceanology department of Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) (St-Petersburg, Russia) in 2007, on the basis of the incorporated Russian-American database of the oceanographic data, reconstruction of long-term time series of average salinity of ocean surface was executed. The received time series describes the period from 1950 to 1993. For allocation of the processes determining formation of changes of average salinity of surface waters in Arctic basin the correlation analysis of interrelation of the received time series and several physical parameters which could affect formation of changes of salinity was executed. We found counter-intuitive result: formation of long-term changes of average salinity of surface waters of Arctic basin in the winter period does not depend on changes of a Siberian rivers runoff. Factors of correlation do not exceed -0,31. At the same time, clear inverse relationship of salinity of surface waters from volumes of the ice formed in flaw lead polynyas of the Siberian shelf seas is revealed. In this case factors of correlation change from -0,56 to -0,7. The maximum factor of correlation is -0,7. It characterizes interrelation of total volume of the ice formed in flaw lead polynyas of all seas of the Siberian shelf and average salinity of surface waters of Arctic basin. Thus, at increase of volumes of the ice formed in

Emergent Behavior of Arctic Precipitation in Response to Enhanced Arctic Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Feldl, Nicole; Lintner, Benjamin R.

2018-03-01

Amplified warming of the high latitudes in response to human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases has already been observed in the historical record and is a robust feature evident across a hierarchy of model systems, including the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The main aims of this analysis are to quantify intermodel differences in the Arctic amplification (AA) of the global warming signal in CMIP5 RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) simulations and to diagnose these differences in the context of the energy and water cycles of the region. This diagnosis reveals an emergent behavior between the energetic and hydrometeorological responses of the Arctic to warming: in particular, enhanced AA and its associated reduction in dry static energy convergence is balanced to first order by latent heating via enhanced precipitation. This balance necessitates increasing Arctic precipitation with increasing AA while at the same time constraining the magnitude of that precipitation increase. The sensitivity of the increase, 1.25 (W/m2)/K ( 240 (km3/yr)/K), is evident across a broad range of historical and projected AA values. Accounting for the energetic constraint on Arctic precipitation, as a function of AA, in turn informs understanding of both the sign and magnitude of hydrologic cycle changes that the Arctic may experience.

Quantifying landscape change in an arctic coastal lowland using repeat airborne LiDAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Benjamin M; Stoker, Jason M; Gibbs, Ann E; Richmond, Bruce M; Grosse, Guido; Romanovsky, Vladimir E; Douglas, Thomas A; Kinsman, Nicole E M

2013-01-01

Increases in air, permafrost, and sea surface temperature, loss of sea ice, the potential for increased wave energy, and higher river discharge may all be interacting to escalate erosion of arctic coastal lowland landscapes. Here we use airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data acquired in 2006 and 2010 to detect landscape change in a 100 km 2 study area on the Beaufort Sea coastal plain of northern Alaska. We detected statistically significant change (99% confidence interval), defined as contiguous areas (>10 m 2 ) that had changed in height by at least 0.55 m, in 0.3% of the study region. Erosional features indicative of ice-rich permafrost degradation were associated with ice-bonded coastal, river, and lake bluffs, frost mounds, ice wedges, and thermo-erosional gullies. These features accounted for about half of the area where vertical change was detected. Inferred thermo-denudation and thermo-abrasion of coastal and river bluffs likely accounted for the dominant permafrost-related degradational processes with respect to area (42%) and volume (51%). More than 300 thermokarst pits significantly subsided during the study period, likely as a result of storm surge flooding of low-lying tundra (<1.4 m asl) as well as the lasting impact of warm summers in the late-1980s and mid-1990s. Our results indicate that repeat airborne LiDAR can be used to detect landscape change in arctic coastal lowland regions at large spatial scales over sub-decadal time periods. (letter)

The Potential and Challenges of Using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP Sea Surface Salinity to Monitor Arctic Ocean Freshwater Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenqing Tang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Sea surface salinity (SSS links various components of the Arctic freshwater system. SSS responds to freshwater inputs from river discharge, sea ice change, precipitation and evaporation, and oceanic transport through the open straits of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. However, in situ SSS data in the Arctic Ocean are very sparse and insufficient to depict the large-scale variability to address the critical question of how climate variability and change affect the Arctic Ocean freshwater. The L-band microwave radiometer on board the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP mission has been providing SSS measurements since April 2015, at approximately 60 km resolution with Arctic Ocean coverage in 1–2 days. With improved land/ice correction, the SMAP SSS algorithm that was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL is able to retrieve SSS in ice-free regions 35 km of the coast. SMAP observes a large-scale contrast in salinity between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic Ocean, while retrievals within the Arctic Circle vary over time, depending on the sea ice coverage and river runoff. We assess the accuracy of SMAP SSS through comparative analysis with in situ salinity data collected by Argo floats, ships, gliders, and in field campaigns. Results derived from nearly 20,000 pairs of SMAP and in situ data North of 50°N collocated within a 12.5-km radius and daily time window indicate a Root Mean Square Difference (RMSD less than ~1 psu with a correlation coefficient of 0.82 and a near unity regression slope over the entire range of salinity. In contrast, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM has a smaller RMSD with Argo. However, there are clear systematic biases in the HYCOM for salinity in the range of 25–30 psu, leading to a regression slope of about 0.5. In the region North of 65°N, the number of collocated samples drops more than 70%, resulting in an RMSD of about 1.2 psu. SMAP SSS in the Kara Sea shows a consistent

Towards a tipping point in responding to change: rising costs, fewer options for Arctic and global societies.

Science.gov (United States)

Huntington, Henry P; Goodstein, Eban; Euskirchen, Eugénie

2012-02-01

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.

Svalbard as a study model of future High Arctic coastal environments in a warming world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacek Piskozub

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Svalbard archipelago, a high latitude area in a region undergoing rapid climate change, is relatively easily accessible for field research. This makes the fjords of Spitsbergen, its largest island, some of the best studied Arctic coastal areas. This paper aims at answering the question of how climatically diverse the fjords are, and how representative they are for the expected future Arctic diminishing range of seasonal sea-ice. This study uses a meteorological reanalysis, sea surface temperature climatology, and the results of a recent one-year meteorological campaign in Spitsbergen to determine the seasonal differences between different Spitsbergen fjords, as well as the sea water temperature and ice ranges around Svalbard in recent years. The results show that Spitsbergen fjords have diverse seasonal patterns of air temperature due to differences in the SST of the adjacent ocean, and different cloudiness. The sea water temperatures and ice concentrations around Svalbard in recent years are similar to what is expected most of the Arctic coastal areas in the second half of this century. This makes Spitsbergen a unique field study model of the conditions expected in future warmer High Arctic.

Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the last interglacial.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Gierz, Paul; Niessen, Frank; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-08-29

Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades and climate scenarios suggest that sea ice may completely disappear during summer within the next about 50-100 years. Here we produce Arctic sea ice biomarker proxy records for the penultimate glacial (Marine Isotope Stage 6) and the subsequent last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e). The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations, although some proxy data/model inconsistencies still exist. During late Marine Isotope Stage 6, polynya-type conditions occurred off the major ice sheets along the northern Barents and East Siberian continental margins, contradicting a giant Marine Isotope Stage 6 ice shelf that covered the entire Arctic Ocean.Coinciding with global warming, Arctic sea ice has rapidly decreased during the last four decades. Here, using biomarker records, the authors show that permanent sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean during the last interglacial, when high latitudes were warmer than present.

ArcticDEM Validation and Accuracy Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Candela, S. G.; Howat, I.; Noh, M. J.; Porter, C. C.; Morin, P. J.

2017-12-01

ArcticDEM comprises a growing inventory Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) covering all land above 60°N. As of August, 2017, ArcticDEM had openly released 2-m resolution, individual DEM covering over 51 million km2, which includes areas of repeat coverage for change detection, as well as over 15 million km2 of 5-m resolution seamless mosaics. By the end of the project, over 80 million km2 of 2-m DEMs will be produced, averaging four repeats of the 20 million km2 Arctic landmass. ArcticDEM is produced from sub-meter resolution, stereoscopic imagery using open source software (SETSM) on the NCSA Blue Waters supercomputer. These DEMs have known biases of several meters due to errors in the sensor models generated from satellite positioning. These systematic errors are removed through three-dimensional registration to high-precision Lidar or other control datasets. ArcticDEM is registered to seasonally-subsetted ICESat elevations due its global coverage and high report accuracy ( 10 cm). The vertical accuracy of ArcticDEM is then obtained from the statistics of the fit to the ICESat point cloud, which averages -0.01 m ± 0.07 m. ICESat, however, has a relatively coarse measurement footprint ( 70 m) which may impact the precision of the registration. Further, the ICESat data predates the ArcticDEM imagery by a decade, so that temporal changes in the surface may also impact the registration. Finally, biases may exist between different the different sensors in the ArcticDEM constellation. Here we assess the accuracy of ArcticDEM and the ICESat registration through comparison to multiple high-resolution airborne lidar datasets that were acquired within one year of the imagery used in ArcticDEM. We find the ICESat dataset is performing as anticipated, introducing no systematic bias during the coregistration process, and reducing vertical errors to within the uncertainty of the airborne Lidars. Preliminary sensor comparisons show no significant difference post coregistration

Debating the Arctic during the Ukraine Crisis – Comparing Arctic State Identities and Media Discourses in Canada and Norway

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burke, Danita Catherine; Rahbek-Clemmensen, Jon

2017-01-01

identities and foreign policy by showing that these identifications affected domestic media discourses about the Arctic in Canada and Norway during the first years (2014-16) of the Crisis. Canada’s territorial identification made it difficult for the newly elected Trudeau government to push for a less...... identities shape media debates, but that the identifications themselves can change. In general, the article advocates for a comparative approach towards the analysis of Arctic state identities.......Previous studies have argued that domestic factors, including each state’s Arctic state identities, may explain why some Western states (e.g. Canada) have been more critical of Russia in the Arctic than others (e.g. Norway). The present study analyses part of the link between Arctic state...

Ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

López-Blanco, Efrén

The terrestrial CO2 exchange in the Arctic plays an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle. The Arctic ecosystems, containing a large amount of organic carbon (C), are experiencing on-going warming in recent decades, which is affecting the C cycling and the feedback interactions between its...... of measurement sites, particularly covering full annual cycles, but also the frequent gaps in data affected by extreme conditions and remoteness. Combining ecosystem models and field observations we are able to study the underlying processes of Arctic CO2 exchange in changing environments. The overall aim...... of the research is to use data-model approaches to analyse the patterns of C exchange and their links to biological processes in Arctic ecosystems, studied in detail both from a measurement and a modelling perspective, but also from a local to a pan-arctic scale. In Paper I we found a compensatory response...

Paleolimnologic and modeling perspectives on the physical and ecological sensitivity of Arctic tundra lakes to temperature changes

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, W.; Russel, J.; Giblin, A. E.; Longo, W. M.; Morrill, C.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Rose, R.; Huang, Y.

2016-12-01

Temperatures are warming rapidly across the Arctic, with the potential to substantially alter freshwater ecosystem structure and functioning. Some important processes, such as allochthonous loading or carbon burial, may respond too slowly to observe in modern monitoring efforts, and therefore require alternative approaches to accurately assess. Here we analyze the physical and ecological sensitivity of Alaska tundra lakes to climate change through the lenses of paleolimnology and lake thermal modeling. We compare a 10,000 year long record of biomarker-inferred temperature change (leaf wax hydrogen isotopes) to independent indicators of lake primary production (chlorophyll a), algal community structure (diatom assemblages), and allochthonous inputs (XRF chemistry) from Lake E5 and Upper Capsule Lake near the Toolik Field Station in Alaska (69 °N, 150 °W). Temperatures varied on the order of 2-5 °C over the last 10,000 years, and warmed 1-2 °C during the post-industrial period. Shifts in diatom communities in both lakes reflect increased lake stratification and lake pH during warmer intervals of the Holocene. While lake stratification is a direct response to temperature, we propose that the pH response is due to a combination of two factors. First, an increase in the length of the ice-free season promotes ventilation of respired CO2 out of the lakes. Thermal modeling suggests that lake ice coverage changes by approximately 6-8 days/°C, and so we expect that ice-cover changed by as much as 3-4 weeks throughout the Holocene. Secondarily, sediment core calcium concentrations suggest increased base cation and alkalinity inputs during warmer periods, most likely due to the thermal-induced deepening of the soil active layer and enhanced carbonate rock weathering. Carbon and chlorophyll concentrations appear negatively correlated with temperature over most the Holocene, attributable to the temperature effect on organic matter respiration, although periods of enhanced

Forty years of change: a northern Alaskan seabird's response to a warming Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Divoky, G.; Suydam, R.

2012-12-01

While recent decadal-scale decreases in the snow and ice habitats of the Arctic are well documented, there are few concurrent long-term biological data sets, especially for species dependent on the cryopelagic ecosystem associated with arctic sea ice. The Black Guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandti), a marine apex predator specializing on prey associated with arctic pack ice has been studied annually since 1975 at a colony on Cooper Island, 35 km east of Point Barrow, Alaska. Over the last four decades critical components of the species' life history have been found to be sensitive to a number of physical and biological effects associated with the region's increasing atmospheric temperatures. Black Guillemots first colonized northern Alaska in the late 1960s and early 1970s as the annual snow-free period increased sufficiently to allow access to nesting cavities for the 80 days required to successfully raise young. At the Cooper Island colony abundance increased during the 1970s and 1980s as summer length continued to increase and wooden nest cavities were provided to increase sample size for monitoring. During this time breeding success was high as summer sea ice remained in the 30-km foraging range of guillemot parents, providing Arctic Cod (Boreogadus saida), the principal forage fish associated with sea ice and the preferred prey of Black Guillemots. Decreasing summer sea ice extent in the 1990s that accelerated in the last decade reduced the guillemots' access to cryopelagic prey during the critical period when parents are provisioning nestlings. Distance from the colony to the pack ice on 15 August averaged 100 km from 2003-2011. This ice retreat had a major affect on Arctic Cod availability, causing parent guillemots to shift to lower quality benthic fish resulting in decreases in nestling quality and breeding success when sea ice had retreated and SST was > 4o C. Increasing loss of summer ice in the last decade also facilitated changes in the distribution of a

RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL CHANGES IN CARBON STORAGE IN ARCTIC TUNDRA

Science.gov (United States)

Surface air temperature in arctic regions has increased since pre-industrial times, raising concerns that warmer and possibly drier conditions have increased soil decomposition rates, thereby stimulating the release to the atmosphere of the large stores of carbon (C) in arctic so...

Monitoring Freeze Thaw Transitions in Arctic Soils using Complex Resistivity Method

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Y.; Hubbard, S. S.; Ulrich, C.; Dafflon, B.; Wullschleger, S. D.

2012-12-01

The Arctic region, which is a sensitive system that has emerged as a focal point for climate change studies, is characterized by a large amount of stored carbon and a rapidly changing landscape. Seasonal freeze-thaw transitions in the Arctic alter subsurface biogeochemical processes that control greenhouse gas fluxes from the subsurface. Our ability to monitor freeze thaw cycles and associated biogeochemical transformations is critical to the development of process rich ecosystem models, which are in turn important for gaining a predictive understanding of Arctic terrestrial system evolution and feedbacks with climate. In this study, we conducted both laboratory and field investigations to explore the use of the complex resistivity method to monitor freeze thaw transitions of arctic soil in Barrow, AK. In the lab studies, freeze thaw transitions were induced on soil samples having different average carbon content through exposing the arctic soil to temperature controlled environments at +4 oC and -20 oC. Complex resistivity and temperature measurements were collected using electrical and temperature sensors installed along the soil columns. During the laboratory experiments, resistivity gradually changed over two orders of magnitude as the temperature was increased or decreased between -20 oC and 0 oC. Electrical phase responses at 1 Hz showed a dramatic and immediate response to the onset of freeze and thaw. Unlike the resistivity response, the phase response was found to be exclusively related to unfrozen water in the soil matrix, suggesting that this geophysical attribute can be used as a proxy for the monitoring of the onset and progression of the freeze-thaw transitions. Spectral electrical responses contained additional information about the controls of soil grain size distribution on the freeze thaw dynamics. Based on the demonstrated sensitivity of complex resistivity signals to the freeze thaw transitions, field complex resistivity data were collected over

Arctic development and historical analysis: the use of historical methodology in addressing current issues in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, Vasiliki Kravariotis

2008-06-01

To demonstrate the applicability of historical methodology to current issues in the Canadian Arctic. This is a literature-based analytical historical study, which draws on material from database searches of MEDLINE, Anthropology Plus, POLARInfo, the Arctic Blue Books and Historical Abstracts. Material was also obtained from physical searches of the University of Alberta Libraries and Library and Archives Canada collections, as well as from field research in the records of the Inuulitsivik Maternities. The historical technique of tracing epistemological change over time, pioneered by Michel Foucault and further developed by Ian Hacking, was applied to the history of Canadian authority in the Arctic. This was linked with epistemological changes occurring throughout Western/Southern culture in this period. The applicability of this historical analysis for current issues in the region was then evaluated. An epistemological shift in Western society has moved authority from traditional human actors in government, medicine and, increasingly, science to statistics, which is seen as both impartial and accurate. Human authorities now routinely appeal to statistical authority to validate policy decisions. This change is as apparent in the Arctic as elsewhere, but it has also opened a space for Inuit practices, rooted in traditional Inuit epistemology, to reassert themselves, provided they can satisfy demands for statistical validity. Historical analysis provides a means to identify the spaces which epistemological change and historical contingency have opened in which social and cultural change can occur.

Arctic shipping and risks: Emergency categories and response capacities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchenko, Nataly A.; Andreassen, Natalia; Borch, Odd Jarl

2018-01-01

The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of natur...... are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed........ In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents...

Multinational Experiment 7. Maritime Security Region: The Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-08

increasingly affect human communities , natural systems, and infrastructure. Resources and Trade Routes in the Arctic Climate change in the Far...capelin, herring, navaga, and wolffishes. Some areas of the Arctic and sub-Arctic suffer from high levels of illegal fishing and overfishing , and...maneuvering, joint air defense drills, communications and search and rescue operations. The exercise is normally held every second year. 8 In

Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors

2012-02-01

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

An atmosphere-ocean GCM modelling study of the climate response to changing Arctic seaways in the early Cenozoic.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

2008-12-01

previous findings on the potential influence of Arctic gateways on ocean overturning and also suggests that Northern Hemisphere climate, particularly in the North Atlantic, was very sensitive to changes in Arctic seaways. This result is of particular significance when considered in the context of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Volcanic activity prior to the PETM may have been responsible for the formation of a sub-aerial barrier in the North Atlantic, and consequently may have driven warming of intermediate waters sufficient to destabilize methane clathrates. Evidence for freshening of Arctic ocean waters prior to the PETM would support this hypothesis.

Arctic Ocean Scientific Drilling: The Next Frontier

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruediger Stein

2010-04-01

Full Text Available The modern Arctic Ocean appears to be changing faster than any other region on Earth. To understand the potential extent of high latitude climate change, it is necessary to sample the history stored in the sediments filling the basins and covering the ridges of the Arctic Ocean. These sediments have been imaged with seismic reflection data, but except for the superficial record, which has been piston cored, they have been sampled only on the Lomonosov Ridge in 2004 during the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX-IODP Leg 302; Backman et al., 2006 and in 1993 in the ice-free waters in the Fram Strait/Yermak Plateau area (ODP Leg 151; Thiede et al., 1996.Although major progress in Arctic Ocean research has been made during the last few decades, the short- and long-term paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history as well as its plate-tectonic evolution are poorly known compared to the other oceans. Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the database we have from this area is still very weak. Large segments of geologic time have not been sampled in sedimentary sections. The question of regional variations cannot be addressed.

International Regulation of Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molenaar, E.J.

Due in particular to the impacts of climate change, the adequacy of the international regulation of Central Arctic Ocean fisheries has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years. As shown in this article, however, international regulation of Central Arctic Ocean fisheries is by no means entirely

Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wisz, Mary; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, Peter

2015-01-01

the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we...... projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter......Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating...

Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Becker

2012-05-01

Full Text Available An extensive database of organochlorine (OC pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB, and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994–2005 suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003–2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

Specificities of Spatial System Transformation and Strategies of the Russian Arctic Redevelopment under the Conditions of Climate Changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir Nikolaevich Leksin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available A bunch of papers has been published by foreign and Russian researchers on climate change impact on the environment and regional socioeconomic development. The bulk of them is focused on analyzing drivers and impact assessments for the Arctic region characterized by the most intensive climate change worldwide. The paper puts to the fore a nontrivial issue of considering the climate change impact factor within the methodology and practice of the strategic process of the Russian Arctic redevelopment. The issue above is complicated by the imperative of ranking of the salience of the climate change socioeconomic implications as priorities of the governance and public administration of the comprehensive development of the macro-region under consideration. The lack of the effective tools for consolidation of the needed resources further exacerbates it. The summary of the findings of the national and international researchers in the area of climate change impact on environment, settlements and economic activity in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF is introduced to substantiate the policy decisions made. We have specified the methodological issues related to peculiarities and role of the climate change factor plays in policy decisions within the context of contemporary knowledge on patterns of spatial systems transformation, their capabilities of selforganization and adaptation to externalities. The authors have revealed the general regularities and specificity of the AZRF transformation as a spatial system and the impact of climate change produced on this process. We have particularly emphasized the issues of adaptation to climate change of the AZRF indigenous population whose health and economic activities experience increased risks associated with high intensiveness of the climatic fluctuations. Recommendations for using scenario (variation approach to redesigning strategies and programs of AZRF development are substantiated

International student Arctic Field School on Permafrost and urban areas study

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, L.; Tolmanov, V. A.; Grebenets, V. I.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

2017-12-01

Arctic regions are experiencing drastic climatic and environmental changes. These changes are exacerbated in the Russian Arctic, where active resource development resulted in further land cover transformations, especially near large settlements. There is a growing need in multidisciplinary studies of climate and human- induced changes in the Arctic cities. In order to fill this gap, International Arctic Field Course on Permafrostand Northern Studies was organized in July 2017 to the Russian Arctic. The course was organized under the umbrella of the Arctic PIRE project in cooperation between the George Washington University, Moscow State University, and the Russian Center for Arctic Development. The course attracted twenty undergraduate and graduate students from Russia, USA, and EU countries and involved instructors specializing in Arctic system science, geocryology, permafrost engineering, and urban sustainability. The field course was focused on studying typical natural Arctic landscapes of tundra and forest tundra; transformations of natural landscapes in urban and industrial areas around Vorkuta and Salekhard; construction and planning on permafrost and field methods and techniques, including permafrost and soil temperature monitoring, active layer thickness (ALT) measurements, studying of cryogenic processes, stratigraphic and soil investigations, vegetation and microclimate studies. The students were also engaged in a discussion of climatic change and historical development of urban areas on permafrost,and were exposed to examples of both active and passive construction principles while conducting a field survey of permafrost related building deformations. During the course, students collected more than 800 ALT and soil temperature measurements in typical landscapes around Vorkuta and Salekhard to determine effects of soil and vegetation factors on ground thermal regime; surveyed several hundreds of buildings to determine locations with most deformation

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

2003-01-01

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.

Science.gov (United States)

Laxon, Seymour; Peacock, Neil; Smith, Doug

2003-10-30

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Advancing research collaborations among agencies through the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee: A necessary step for linking science to policy.

Science.gov (United States)

LaValley, M.; Starkweather, S.; Bowden, S.

2017-12-01

The Arctic is changing rapidly as average temperatures rise. As an Arctic nation, the United States is directly affected by these changes. It is imperative that these changes be understood to make effective policy decisions. Since the research needs of the Arctic are large and wide-ranging, most Federal agencies fund some aspect of Arctic research. As a result, the U.S. government regularly works to coordinate Federal Arctic research in order to reduce duplication of effort and costs, and to enhance the research's system perspective. The government's Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) accomplishes this coordination through its policy-driven five-year Arctic Research Plans and collaboration teams (CTs), which are research topic-oriented teams tasked with implementing the plans. The policies put forth by IARPC thus inform science, however IARPC has been less successful of making these science outcomes part of an iterative decision making process. IARPC's mandate to facilitate coordinated research through information sharing communities can be viewed a prerequisite step in the science-to- decision making process. Research collaborations and the communities of practice facilitated by IARPC allow scientists to connect with a wider community of scientists and stakeholders and, in turn, the larger issues in need of policy solutions. These connections help to create a pathway through which research may increasingly reflect policy goals and inform decisions. IARPC has been growing into a more useful model for the science-to-decision making interface since the publication of its Arctic Research Plan FY2017-2021, and it is useful to evaluate how and why IARPC is progressing in this realm. To understand the challenges facing interagency research collaboration and the progress IARPC has made, the Chukchi Beaufort and Communities CTs, were evaluated as case studies. From the case studies, several recommendations for enhancing collaborations across Federal

Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems: exploring the relationships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suzanne de la Barre

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing these impacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS contribute to the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change and responsible social and economic development in the Arctic. The aim of this article is to identify the two-way relationship between AOS and tourism. On the one hand, tourism activities account for diverse changes across a broad spectrum of impact fields. On the other hand, due to its multiple and diverse agents and far-reaching activities, tourism is also well-positioned to collect observational data and participate as an actor in monitoring activities. To accomplish our goals, we provide an inventory of tourism-embedded issues and concerns of interest to AOS from a range of destinations in the circumpolar Arctic region, including Alaska, Arctic Canada, Iceland, Svalbard, the mainland European Arctic and Russia. The article also draws comparisons with the situation in Antarctica. On the basis of a collective analysis provided by members of the International Polar Tourism Research Network from across the polar regions, we conclude that the potential role for tourism in the development and implementation of AOS is significant and has been overlooked.

Active molecular iodine photochemistry in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Raso, Angela R W; Custard, Kyle D; May, Nathaniel W; Tanner, David; Newburn, Matt K; Walker, Lawrence; Moore, Ronald J; Huey, L G; Alexander, Liz; Shepson, Paul B; Pratt, Kerri A

2017-09-19

During springtime, the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer undergoes frequent rapid depletions in ozone and gaseous elemental mercury due to reactions with halogen atoms, influencing atmospheric composition and pollutant fate. Although bromine chemistry has been shown to initiate ozone depletion events, and it has long been hypothesized that iodine chemistry may contribute, no previous measurements of molecular iodine (I 2 ) have been reported in the Arctic. Iodine chemistry also contributes to atmospheric new particle formation and therefore cloud properties and radiative forcing. Here we present Arctic atmospheric I 2 and snowpack iodide (I - ) measurements, which were conducted near Utqiaġvik, AK, in February 2014. Using chemical ionization mass spectrometry, I 2 was observed in the atmosphere at mole ratios of 0.3-1.0 ppt, and in the snowpack interstitial air at mole ratios up to 22 ppt under natural sunlit conditions and up to 35 ppt when the snowpack surface was artificially irradiated, suggesting a photochemical production mechanism. Further, snow meltwater I - measurements showed enrichments of up to ∼1,900 times above the seawater ratio of I - /Na + , consistent with iodine activation and recycling. Modeling shows that observed I 2 levels are able to significantly increase ozone depletion rates, while also producing iodine monoxide (IO) at levels recently observed in the Arctic. These results emphasize the significance of iodine chemistry and the role of snowpack photochemistry in Arctic atmospheric composition, and imply that I 2 is likely a dominant source of iodine atoms in the Arctic.

Active molecular iodine photochemistry in the Arctic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raso, Angela R.; Custard, Kyle D.; May, Nathaniel W.; Tanner, David; Newburn, Matthew K.; Walker, Lawrence R.; Moore, Ronald J.; Huey, L. G.; Alexander, Lizabeth; Shepson, Paul B.; Pratt, Kerri A.

2017-09-05

During springtime, the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer undergoes frequent rapid depletions in ozone and gaseous elemental mercury due to reactions with halogen atoms, influencing atmospheric composition and pollutant fate. Although bromine chemistry has been shown to initiate ozone depletion events, and it has long been hypothesized that iodine chemistry may contribute, no previous measurements of molecular iodine (I₂) have been reported in the Arctic. Iodine chemistry also contributes to atmospheric new particle formation and therefore cloud properties and radiative forcing. Here we present Arctic atmospheric I2 and snowpack iodide (I-) measurements, which were conducted near Utqiagvik, AK, in February 2014. Using chemical ionization mass spectrometry, I2 was observed in the atmosphere at mole ratios of 0.3–1.0 ppt, and in the snowpack interstitial air at mole ratios up to 22 ppt under natural sunlit conditions and up to 35 ppt when the snowpack surface was artificially irradiated, suggesting a photochemical production mechanism. Further, snow meltwater I-measurements showed enrichments of up to ~1,900 times above the seawater ratio of I-/Na+, consistent with iodine activation and recycling. Modeling shows that observed I₂ levels are able to significantly increase ozone depletion rates, while also producing iodine monoxide (IO) at levels recently observed in the Arctic. These results emphasize the significance of iodine chemistry and the role of snowpack photochemistry in Arctic atmospheric composition, and imply that I₂ is likely a dominant source of iodine atoms in the Arctic.

The greenhouse effect and the Arctic ice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groenaas, Sigbjoern

2002-01-01

The impact on the Arctic ice of global warming is important for many people and for the environment. Less ice means changed conditions for the Inuits, hard times for the polar bears and changed conditions for the fishing sector. There is at present some uncertainty about the thickness of the ice and what might be the cause of its oscillation. It was reported a few years ago that the thickness of the ice had almost been reduced by 50 per cent since the 1950s and some researchers suggested that within a few decades the ice would disappear during the summer. These measurements have turned out not to be representative for the whole Arctic region, and it now appears that a great deal of the measured thickness variation can be attributed to changes in the atmospheric circulation. The article discusses the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation in relation to the ice thickness, and climate models. Feedback mechanisms such as reduced albedo may have a big impact in the Arctic in a global greenhouse warming. Model simulations are at variance, and the scenarios for the future are uncertain

Marine CDOM accumulation during a coastal Arctic mesocosm experiment: No response to elevated pCO2 levels

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlov, Alexey K.; Silyakova, Anna; Granskog, Mats A.; Bellerby, Richard G. J.; Engel, Anja; Schulz, Kai G.; Brussaard, Corina P. D.

2014-06-01

A large-scale multidisciplinary mesocosm experiment in an Arctic fjord (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard; 78°56.2'N) was used to study Arctic marine food webs and biogeochemical elements cycling at natural and elevated future carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. At the start of the experiment, marine-derived chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) dominated the CDOM pool. Thus, this experiment constituted a convenient case to study production of autochthonous CDOM, which is typically masked by high levels of CDOM of terrestrial origin in the Arctic Ocean proper. CDOM accumulated during the experiment in line with an increase in bacterial abundance; however, no response was observed to increased pCO2 levels. Changes in CDOM absorption spectral slopes indicate that bacteria were most likely responsible for the observed CDOM dynamics. Distinct absorption peaks (at 330 and 360 nm) were likely associated with mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs). Due to the experimental setup, MAAs were produced in absence of ultraviolet exposure providing evidence for MAAs to be considered as multipurpose metabolites rather than simple photoprotective compounds. We showed that a small increase in CDOM during the experiment made it a major contributor to total absorption in a range of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400-700 nm) and, therefore, is important for spectral light availability and may be important for photosynthesis and phytoplankton groups composition in a rapidly changing Arctic marine ecosystem.

The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huntington, H.P. [23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK 99577 (United States); Boyle, M. [Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6S 1K4 (Canada); Flowers, G.E. [Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6 (Canada); Weatherly, J.W. [Snow and Ice Division, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 72 Lyme Road, Hanover, NH 03755 (United States); Hamilton, L.C. [Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire, 20 College Road, Durham, NH 03824 (United States); Hinzman, L. [Water and Environment Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755860, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Gerlach, C. [Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757720, Fairbanks, AK 99775 (United States); Zulueta, R. [Department of Biology, Global Change Research Group, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, PS-240, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Nicolson, C. [Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, 160 Holdsworth Way, Amherst, MA , 01003 (United States); Overpeck, J. [Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, 715 North Park Avenue, 2nd Floor, Tucson, AZ, 85721 (United States)

2007-05-15

Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.

Towards Arctic Resource Governance of Marine Invasive Species

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kourantidou, Melina; Kaiser, Brooks; Fernandez, Linda

2015-01-01

Scientific and policy-oriented publications highlighting the magnitude of uncertainty in the changing Arctic and the possibilities for effective regional governance are proliferating, yet it remains a challenging task to examine Arctic marine biodiversity. Limited scientific data are currently...... available. Through analysis of marine invasions in the Arctic, we work to identify and assess patterns in the knowledge gaps regarding invasive species in the Arctic that affect the ability to generate improved governance outcomes. These patterns are expected to depend on multiple aspects of scientific...... research into invasive species threats in the Arctic, including the ways in which known marine invasions are related to different stakeholder groups and existing disparate national and international experiences with invasive species. Stakeholdergroups include dominant industries (fishing, shipping, tourism...

The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA)

OpenAIRE

Baschek, Burkard; Schroeder, Friedhelm; Brix, Holger; Riethmüller, Rolf; Badewien, Thomas H.; Breitbach, Gisbert; Brügge, Bernd; Colijn, Franciscus; Doerffer, Roland; Eschenbach, Christiane; Friedrich, Jana; Fischer, Philipp; Garthe, Stefan; Horstmann, Jochen; Krasemann, Hajo

2017-01-01

The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the Arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the German Bight in the North Sea as a prime example of a heavily used coastal area, and Svalbard as an example of an Arctic coast that is under strong pressure due to global change. The COSYNA automated observing and modelling system is designed...

The European Arctic policy in progress

Science.gov (United States)

Conde Pérez, Elena; Yaneva, Zhaklin Valerieva

2016-09-01

The geostrategic, political, economic, and scientific relevance of the Arctic is constantly growing due to the complex process of climate change. Accordingly, the European Union-as a global political actor-, is already taking steps to ensure and strengthen its influence in the region while demonstrating readiness to face the many opportunities and challenges ahead in cooperation with the traditional stakeholders. Therefore, in order to reflect the renewed importance of the Arctic transformation, the Union has been designing its Arctic Policy focusing on climate change mitigation and multilateral cooperation as its main strengths. Unfortunately, despite the diligence and impetus that has been invested, this process has been delayed in several occasions as the Union had to deal with internal and external destabilizing factors, such as the later immigration crisis or the lack of uniformity among its member states' foreign policy interests. These factors will be analyzed along with the process of creation and development of the EU's Arctic policy. Despite some delays, on 27 April 2016, the long-awaited third communication was issued and progress has been made: even if, in general terms, the new document remains a political statement, there is also a clear commitment to action.

The role of surface energy fluxes in pan-Arctic snow cover changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Xiaogang; Lettenmaier, Dennis P; Groisman, Pavel Ya; Dery, Stephen J

2011-01-01

We analyze snow cover extent (SCE) trends in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) northern hemisphere weekly satellite SCE data using the Mann-Kendall trend test and find that North American and Eurasian snow cover in the pan-Arctic have declined significantly in spring and summer over the period of satellite record beginning in the early 1970s. These trends are reproduced, both in trend direction and statistical significance, in reconstructions using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model. We find that spring and summer surface radiative and turbulent fluxes generated in VIC have strong correlations with satellite observations of SCE. We identify the role of surface energy fluxes and determine which is most responsible for the observed spring and summer SCE recession. We find that positive trends in surface net radiation (SNR) accompany most of the SCE trends, whereas modeled latent heat (LH) and sensible heat (SH) trends associated with warming on SCE mostly cancel each other, except for North America in spring, and to a lesser extent for Eurasia in summer. In spring over North America and summer in Eurasia, the SH contribution to the observed snow cover trends is substantial. The results indicate that ΔSNR is the primary energy source and ΔSH plays a secondary role in changes of SCE. Compared with ΔSNR and ΔSH, ΔLH has a minor influence on pan-Arctic snow cover changes.

Mathematical Modelling of Arctic Polygonal Tundra with Ecosys: 1. Microtopography Determines How Active Layer Depths Respond to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, R. F.; Mekonnen, Z. A.; Riley, W. J.; Wainwright, H. M.; Graham, D.; Torn, M. S.

2017-12-01

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. In this study, increases in near-surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snow and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

2015-01-01

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loranty, Michael M; Goetz, Scott J; Beck, Pieter S A

2011-01-01

Recent field experiments in tundra ecosystems describe how increased shrub cover reduces winter albedo, and how subsequent changes in surface net radiation lead to altered rates of snowmelt. These findings imply that tundra vegetation change will alter regional energy budgets, but to date the effects have not been documented at regional or greater scales. Using satellite observations and a pan-Arctic vegetation map, we examined the effects of shrub vegetation on albedo across the terrestrial Arctic. We included vegetation classes dominated by low shrubs, dwarf shrubs, tussock-dominated graminoid tundra, and non-tussock graminoid tundra. Each class was further stratified by bioclimate subzones. Low-shrub tundra had higher normalized difference vegetation index values and earlier albedo decline in spring than dwarf-shrub tundra, but for tussock tundra, spring albedo declined earlier than for low-shrub tundra. Our results illustrate how relatively small changes in vegetation properties result in differences in albedo dynamics, regardless of shrub growth, that may lead to differences in net radiation upwards of 50 W m -2 at weekly time scales. Further, our findings imply that changes to the terrestrial Arctic energy budget during this important seasonal transition are under way regardless of whether recent satellite observed productivity trends are the result of shrub expansion. We conclude that a better understanding of changes in vegetation productivity and distribution in Arctic tundra is essential for accurately quantifying and predicting carbon and energy fluxes and associated climate feedbacks.

Role of polar anticyclones and mid-latitude cyclones for Arctic summertime sea-ice melting

Science.gov (United States)

Wernli, Heini; Papritz, Lukas

2018-02-01

Annual minima in Arctic sea-ice extent and volume have been decreasing rapidly since the late 1970s, with substantial interannual variability. Summers with a particularly strong reduction of Arctic sea-ice extent are characterized by anticyclonic circulation anomalies from the surface to the upper troposphere. Here, we investigate the origin of these seasonal circulation anomalies by identifying individual Arctic anticyclones (with a lifetime of typically ten days) and analysing the air mass transport into these systems. We reveal that these episodic upper-level induced Arctic anticyclones are relevant for generating seasonal circulation anomalies. Sea-ice reduction is systematically enhanced during the transient episodes with Arctic anticyclones and the seasonal reduction of sea-ice volume correlates with the area-averaged frequency of Arctic anticyclones poleward of 70° N (correlation coefficient of 0.57). A trajectory analysis shows that these anticyclones result from extratropical cyclones injecting extratropical air masses with low potential vorticity into the Arctic upper troposphere. Our results emphasize the fundamental role of extratropical cyclones and associated diabatic processes in establishing Arctic anticyclones and, in turn, seasonal circulation anomalies, which are of key importance for understanding the variability of summertime Arctic sea-ice melting.

Arctic research vessel design would expand science prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, Robert; Kristensen, Dirk

The U.S. polar marine science community has long declared the need for an arctic research vessel dedicated to advancing the study of northern ice-dominated seas. Planning for such a vessel began 2 decades ago, but competition for funding has prevented construction. A new design program is underway, and it shows promise of opening up exciting possibilities for new research initiatives in arctic marine science.With its latest design, the Arctic Research Vessel (ARV) has grown to a size and capability that will make it the first U.S. academic research vessel able to provide access to the Arctic Ocean. This ship would open a vast arena for new studies in the least known of the world's seas. These studies promise to rank high in national priority because of the importance of the Arctic Ocean as a source of data relating to global climate change. Other issues that demand attention in the Arctic include its contributions to the world's heat budget, the climate history buried in its sediments, pollution monitoring, and the influence of arctic conditions on marine renewable resources.

Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.R. Arnold

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract The Arctic is a sentinel of global change. This region is influenced by multiple physical and socio-economic drivers and feedbacks, impacting both the natural and human environment. Air pollution is one such driver that impacts Arctic climate change, ecosystems and health but significant uncertainties still surround quantification of these effects. Arctic air pollution includes harmful trace gases (e.g. tropospheric ozone and particles (e.g. black carbon, sulphate and toxic substances (e.g. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons that can be transported to the Arctic from emission sources located far outside the region, or emitted within the Arctic from activities including shipping, power production, and other industrial activities. This paper qualitatively summarizes the complex science issues motivating the creation of a new international initiative, PACES (air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies. Approaches for coordinated, international and interdisciplinary research on this topic are described with the goal to improve predictive capability via new understanding about sources, processes, feedbacks and impacts of Arctic air pollution. Overarching research actions are outlined, in which we describe our recommendations for 1 the development of trans-disciplinary approaches combining social and economic research with investigation of the chemical and physical aspects of Arctic air pollution; 2 increasing the quality and quantity of observations in the Arctic using long-term monitoring and intensive field studies, both at the surface and throughout the troposphere; and 3 developing improved predictive capability across a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Total Environment of Change: Impacts of Climate Change and Social Transitions on Subsistence Fisheries in Northwest Alaska

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katie J. Moerlein

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Arctic ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes as a result of global climate change, with significant implications for the livelihoods of Arctic peoples. In this paper, based on ethnographic research conducted with the Iñupiaq communities of Noatak and Selawik in northwestern Alaska, we detail prominent environmental changes observed over the past twenty to thirty years and their impacts on subsistence-based lifestyles. However, we suggest that it is ultimately insufficient to try to understand how Arctic communities are experiencing and responding to climate change in isolation from other stressors. During interviews and participant observation documenting local observations of climatic and related environmental shifts and impacts to subsistence fishing practices, we find the inseparability of environmental, social, economic, cultural, and political realms for community residents. Many of our informants, who live in a mixed economy based on various forms of income and widespread subsistence harvesting of fish and game, perceive and experience climate change as embedded among numerous other factors affecting subsistence patterns and practices. Changing lifestyles, decreasing interest by younger generations in pursuing subsistence livelihoods, and economic challenges are greatly affecting contemporary subsistence patterns and practices in rural Alaska. Observations of climate change are perceived, experienced, and articulated to researchers through a broader lens of these linked lifestyle and cultural shifts. Therefore, we argue that to properly assess and understand the impacts of climate change on the subsistence practices in Arctic communities, we must also consider the total environment of change that is dramatically shaping the relationship between people, communities, and their surrounding environments.

Amplified North Atlantic Warming in the Late Pliocene by Changes in Arctic Gateways

Science.gov (United States)

Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Jahn, A.; Feng, R.; Brady, E. C.; Hu, A.; Lofverstrom, M.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions of the late Pliocene (mid-Piacenzian, 3.3 - 3.0 million years ago) sea surface temperature (SST) find much warmer conditions in the North Atlantic than modern. The much warmer SSTs, up to 8.8°C from sites with good dating and replicates from several different types of proxies, have been difficult for climate models to reproduce. Even with the slow feedbacks of a reduced Greenland ice sheet and expansion of boreal forests to the Arctic Ocean over Canada and Eurasia, models cannot warm the North Atlantic sufficiently to match the reconstructed SSTs. An enhancement of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the late Pliocene, proposed as a possible mechanism based on ocean core records of δ13C, also is not present in the model simulations. Here, we present CESM simulations using a new reconstruction of late Pliocene paleogeography that has the Bering Strait (BS) and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) Straits closed. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the AMOC, by inhibiting freshwater (FW) transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading to warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The cutoff of the short export route through the CAA results in a more saline Labrador and south Greenland Sea with increased deep convection. At the same time, as all FW now leaves the Arctic east of Greenland, there is a freshening of and decreased deepwater formation in the Norwegian Sea. Overall, the AMOC strengthens. This past time period has implications for a future Earth under more responsible scenarios of emissions. Late Pliocene atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are estimated to have ranged between 350 and 450 ppmv and the paleogeography is relatively similar to modern. Our study indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the

Air Mass Origin in the Arctic and its Response to Future Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Orbe, Clara; Newman, Paul A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Holzer, Mark; Oman, Luke; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Li, Feng

2014-01-01

We present the first climatology of air mass origin in the Arctic in terms of rigorously defined air mass fractions that partition air according to where it last contacted the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Results from a present-day climate integration of the GEOSCCM general circulation model reveal that the Arctic lower troposphere below 700 mb is dominated year round by air whose last PBL contact occurred poleward of 60degN, (Arctic air, or air of Arctic origin). By comparison, approx. 63% of the Arctic troposphere above 700 mb originates in the NH midlatitude PBL, (midlatitude air). Although seasonal changes in the total fraction of midlatitude air are small, there are dramatic changes in where that air last contacted the PBL, especially above 700 mb. Specifically, during winter air in the Arctic originates preferentially over the oceans, approx. 26% in the East Pacific, and approx. 20% in the Atlantic PBL. By comparison, during summer air in the Arctic last contacted the midlatitude PBL primarily over land, overwhelmingly so in Asia (approx. 40 %) and, to a lesser extent, in North America (approx. 24%). Seasonal changes in air-mass origin are interpreted in terms of seasonal variations in the large-scale ventilation of the midlatitude boundary layer and lower troposphere, namely changes in the midlatitude tropospheric jet and associated transient eddies during winter and large scale convective motions over midlatitudes during summer.

Building upon cooperative prospects amongst stakeholders for fighting Arctic marine invasion challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kourantidou, Melina; Kaiser, Brooks; Fernandez, Linda

Biological invasions in Arctic marine environments are expected to noticeably affect the way the ecosystem will look and function in coming years. Along with many other rapid changes taking place in these previously isolated ecosystems, invasions of which we are both aware and unaware may have ir...... in the decision making process to help articulate incentive-compatible ecosystem management strategies that are adaptive to new information garnered from sustained Arctic observations....... expect that game theoretic environmental economic tools can help illuminate aspects of invasive species management significant for sound decision-making processes. Building blocks of such a game theoretic approach include the different players (stakeholders) involved. In our case study, we take...... environmental quality outcomes: Norwegian and Russian fishermen, Live and frozen crab markets, and Society, representing all possible beneficiaries of a healthy and well-sustained marine ecosystem in the Barents Sea as well as those in areas to which the invasion may spread. These actors must make decisions...

Sub-arctic hydrology and climate change : a case study of the Tana River Basin in Northern Fennoscandia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dankers, Rutger

2002-01-01

The most significant changes in climate, due to the well-known enhanced greenhouse effect, are generally expected to occur at northern high latitudes. Sub-arctic environments, that are dominated by the presence of a seasonal snow cover, may therefore be particularly sensitive to global warming. The

Arctic-midlatitude weather linkages in North America

Science.gov (United States)

Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin

2018-06-01

There is intense public interest in whether major Arctic changes can and will impact midlatitude weather such as cold air outbreaks on the central and east side of continents. Although there is progress in linkage research for eastern Asia, a clear gap is conformation for North America. We show two stationary temperature/geopotential height patterns where warmer Arctic temperatures have reinforced existing tropospheric jet stream wave amplitudes over North America: a Greenland/Baffin Block pattern during December 2010 and an Alaska Ridge pattern during December 2017. Even with continuing Arctic warming over the past decade, other recent eastern US winter months were less susceptible for an Arctic linkage: the jet stream was represented by either zonal flow, progressive weather systems, or unfavorable phasing of the long wave pattern. The present analysis lays the scientific controversy over the validity of linkages to the inherent intermittency of jet stream dynamics, which provides only an occasional bridge between Arctic thermodynamic forcing and extended midlatitude weather events.

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

FRAM (FRontiers in Arctic marine Monitoring: The FRAM Ocean Observing System) planned efforts for integrated water column biogeochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsdóttir, Maria; Salter, Ian; Kanzow, Torsten; Boetius, Antje

2015-04-01

The Arctic is a region undergoing rapid environmental change and will be subject to multiple stressors in the coming decades. Reductions in sea ice concentration; warming, increased terrigenous inputs and Atlantification are all expected to exert a significant impact on the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems. The Fram Strait is a particularly important region because it acts as a gateway in the exchange of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. The logistical constraints in conducting year round biogeochemical measurements in such areas impose a significant limitation to our understanding of these complicated ecosystems. To address these important challenges the German ministry of research has funded a multi-million Euro infrastructure project (FRAM). Over the next five years FRAM will develop a remote access and autonomous sampling infrastructure to improve the temporal and spatial resolution of biogeochemical measurements in the Fram Strait and central Arctic. Here we present a summary of sampling strategies, technological innovations and biogeochemical parameters that will be addressed over the duration of the project. Specific emphasis will be placed on platforms for monitoring nutrient dynamics, carbonate chemistry, organic carbon flux and the development of a sustained microbial observatory.

The Arctic Observing Viewer: A Web-mapping Application for U.S. Arctic Observing Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Cody, R. P.; Manley, W. F.; Gaylord, A. G.; Kassin, A.; Villarreal, S.; Barba, M.; Dover, M.; Escarzaga, S. M.; Habermann, T.; Kozimor, J.; Score, R.; Tweedie, C. E.

2015-12-01

Although a great deal of progress has been made with various arctic observing efforts, it can be difficult to assess such progress when so many agencies, organizations, research groups and others are making such rapid progress over such a large expanse of the Arctic. To help meet the strategic needs of the U.S. SEARCH-AON program and facilitate the development of SAON and other related initiatives, the Arctic Observing Viewer (AOV; http://ArcticObservingViewer.org) has been developed. This web mapping application compiles detailed information pertaining to U.S. Arctic Observing efforts. Contributing partners include the U.S. NSF, USGS, ACADIS, ADIwg, AOOS, a2dc, AON, ARMAP, BAID, IASOA, INTERACT, and others. Over 7700 observation sites are currently in the AOV database and the application allows users to visualize, navigate, select, advance search, draw, print, and more. During 2015, the web mapping application has been enhanced by the addition of a query builder that allows users to create rich and complex queries. AOV is founded on principles of software and data interoperability and includes an emerging "Project" metadata standard, which uses ISO 19115-1 and compatible web services. Substantial efforts have focused on maintaining and centralizing all database information. In order to keep up with emerging technologies, the AOV data set has been structured and centralized within a relational database and the application front-end has been ported to HTML5 to enable mobile access. Other application enhancements include an embedded Apache Solr search platform which provides users with the capability to perform advance searches and an administration web based data management system that allows administrators to add, update, and delete information in real time. We encourage all collaborators to use AOV tools and services for their own purposes and to help us extend the impact of our efforts and ensure AOV complements other cyber-resources. Reinforcing dispersed but

Status and Impacts of Arctic Freshwater Export

Science.gov (United States)

Haine, T. W. N.

2017-12-01

Large freshwater anomalies clearly exist in the Arctic Ocean. For example, liquid freshwater has accumulated in the Beaufort Gyre in the decade of the 2000s compared to 1980-2000, with an extra ≈5000 km3—about 25%—being stored. The sources of freshwater to the Arctic from precipitation and runoff have increased between these periods (most of the evidence comes from models). Despite flux increases from 2001 to 2011, it is uncertain if the marine freshwater source through Bering Strait for the 2000s has changed, as observations in the 1980s and 1990s are incomplete. The marine freshwater fluxes draining the Arctic through Fram and Davis straits are also insignificantly different. In this way, the balance of sources and sinks of freshwater to the Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), and Baffin Bay shifted to about 1200±730 km3yr-1 freshening the region, on average, during the 2000s. The observed accumulation of liquid freshwater is consistent with this increased supply and the loss of freshwater from sea ice (Figure, right). Evidence exists that such discharges can impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and hence Atlantic sector climate. Nevertheless, it appears that the observed AMOC variability since 2004, when high quality measurements began, is not attributable to anthropogenic influence. This work is based on, and updated from, Haine et al. (2015), Carmack et al. (2016), and Haine (2016). Haine, T. W. N. Ocean science: Vagaries of Atlantic overturning. Nature Geoscience, 9, 479-480, 10.1038/ngeo2748, 2016. T. W. N. Haine et al., Arctic Freshwater Export: Status, Mechanisms, and Prospects, Global Planetary Change, 125, 13-35, 10.1016/j.glopacha.2014.11.013, 2015. E. Carmack et al., Fresh water and its role in the Arctic Marine System: sources, disposition, storage, export, and physical and biogeochemical consequences in the Arctic and global oceans. J. G. Res. Biogeosciences, 10.1002/2015JG003140, 2016.

Introduction to the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) professional paper

Science.gov (United States)

Gautier, Donald L.; Moore, Thomas E.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, D.L.

2017-11-15

The amount of yet-to-find oil and gas in the high northern latitudes is one of the great uncertainties of future energy supply. The possibility of extensive new petroleum developments in the Arctic Ocean is of interest to the Arctic nations, to petroleum companies, and to those concerned with the delicate and changing Arctic environment. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) had the express purpose of conducting a geologically based assessment of undiscovered petroleum north of the Arctic Circle, thereby providing an initial evaluation of resource potential. 

Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset, Freeze-Up, and Melt Season Length

Science.gov (United States)

Markus, Thorsten; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Miller, Jeffrey

2010-01-01

In order to explore changes and trends in the timing of Arctic sea ice melt onset and freeze-up and therefore melt season length, we developed a method that obtains this information directly from satellite passive microwave data, creating a consistent data set from 1979 through present. We furthermore distinguish between early melt (the first day of the year when melt is detected) and the first day of continuous melt. A similar distinction is made for the freeze-up. Using this method we analyze trends in melt onset and freeze-up for 10 different Arctic regions. In all regions except for the Sea of Okhotsk, which shows a very slight and statistically insignificant positive trend (O.4 days/decade), trends in melt onset are negative, i.e. towards earlier melt. The trends range from -1.0day/decade for the Bering Sea to -7.3 days/decade for the East Greenland Sea. Except for the Sea of Okhotsk all areas also show a trend towards later autumn freeze onset. The Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Laptev/East Siberian Seas observe the strongest trends with 7 days/decade. For the entire Arctic, the melt season length has increased by about 20 days over the last 30 years. Largest trends of over 1O days/decade are seen for Hudson Bay, the East Greenland Sea the Laptev/East Siberian Seas, and the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas. Those trends are statistically significant a1 the 99% level.

Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice.

Science.gov (United States)

Pistone, Kristina; Eisenman, Ian; Ramanathan, V

2014-03-04

The decline of Arctic sea ice has been documented in over 30 y of satellite passive microwave observations. The resulting darkening of the Arctic and its amplification of global warming was hypothesized almost 50 y ago but has yet to be verified with direct observations. This study uses satellite radiation budget measurements along with satellite microwave sea ice data to document the Arctic-wide decrease in planetary albedo and its amplifying effect on the warming. The analysis reveals a striking relationship between planetary albedo and sea ice cover, quantities inferred from two independent satellite instruments. We find that the Arctic planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979 and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m(2) of solar energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period, considerably larger than expectations from models and other less direct recent estimates. Changes in cloudiness appear to play a negligible role in observed Arctic darkening, thus reducing the possibility of Arctic cloud albedo feedbacks mitigating future Arctic warming.

Backyard of the Rich North: The Climate Change-related Vicious Circle of the Arctic Zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varis, Olli

2006-01-01

The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources - largely fossil fuels - returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average

Succession Stages of Tundra Plant Communities Following Wildfire Disturbance in Arctic Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Breen, A. L.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Jones, B. M.

2015-12-01

Rapid climate change is affecting climate-sensitive disturbance regimes throughout the world. In particular, the impacts of climate change on Arctic disturbance regimes are poorly understood because landscape-scale disturbances are infrequent or occur in remote localities. Wildfire in Arctic Alaska is presently limited by ignition source and favorable burn weather. With rapid climate change, a lengthening growing season, and subsequent increase in plant biomass and productivity, wildfire frequency and annual area burned in tundra ecosystems is expected to increase over the next century. Yet, post-fire tundra vegetation succession is inadequately characterized except at a few point locations. We identify succession stages of tussock tundra communities following wildfire using a chronosequence of 65 relevés in 10 tundra fire scars (1971-2011) and nearby unburned tundra from sites on the Seward Peninsula and northern foothills of the Brooks Range. We used the Braun-Blanquét approach to classify plant communities, and applied nonmetric multidimentional scaling (NMDS) to identify ecological gradients underlying community differentiation. The ordination revealed a clear differentiation between unburned and burned tundra communities. Ecological gradients, reflected by ordination axes, correspond to fire history (e.g., time since last fire, number of times burned, burn severity) and a complex productivity gradient. Post-fire species richness is less than unburned tundra; primarily reflected as a decrease in lichen species and turnover of bryophyte species immediately post-fire. Species richness of grasses increases post-fire and is greatest in communities that burned more than once in the past 30 years. Shrub cover and total aboveground biomass are greatest in repeat burn sites. We review and discuss our results focusing on the implications of a changing tundra fire regime, its effect on vegetation succession trajectories, and subsequent rates of carbon sequestration and

Future scientific drilling in the Arctic Ocean: Key objectives, areas, and strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R.; Coakley, B.; Mikkelsen, N.; O'Regan, M.; Ruppel, C.

2012-04-01

In spite of the critical role of the Arctic Ocean in climate evolution, our understanding of the short- and long-term paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic history through late Mesozoic-Cenozoic times, as well as its plate-tectonic evolution, remains behind that from the other world's oceans. This lack of knowledge is mainly caused by the major technological/logistic problems in reaching this permanently ice-covered region with normal research vessels and in retrieving long and undisturbed sediment cores. With the Arctic Coring Expedition - ACEX (or IODP Expedition 302), the first Mission Specific Platform (MSP) expedition within IODP, a new era in Arctic research began (Backman, Moran, Mayer, McInroy et al., 2006). ACEX proved that, with an intensive ice-management strategy, successful scientific drilling in the permanently ice-covered central Arctic Ocean is possible. ACEX is certainly a milestone in Arctic Ocean research, but - of course - further drilling activities are needed in this poorly studied ocean. Furthermore, despite the success of ACEX fundamental questions related to the long- and short-term climate history of the Arctic Ocean during Mesozoic-Cenozoic times remain unanswered. This is partly due to poor core recovery during ACEX and, especially, because of a major mid-Cenozoic hiatus in this single record. Since ACEX, a series of workshops were held to develop a scientific drilling strategy for investigating the tectonic and paleoceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean and its role in influencing the global climate system: - "Arctic Ocean History: From Speculation to Reality" (Bremerhaven/Germany, November 2008); - "Overcoming barriers to Arctic Ocean scientific drilling: the site survey challenge" (Copenhagen/Denmark, November 2011); - Circum-Arctic shelf/upper continental slope scientific drilling workshop on "Catching Climate Change in Progress" (San Francisco/USA, December 2011); - "Coordinated Scientific Drilling in the Beaufort Sea: Addressing

Arctic summer school onboard an icebreaker

Science.gov (United States)

Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Repina, Irina A.

2014-05-01

The International Arctic Research Center (IARC) of the University of Alaska Fairbanks conducted a summer school for PhD students, post-docs and early career scientists in August-September 2013, jointly with an arctic expedition as a part of NABOS project (Nansen and Amundsen Basin Observational System) onboard the Russian research vessel "Akademik Fedorov". Both the summer school and NABOS expedition were funded by the National Science Foundation. The one-month long summer school brought together graduate students and young scientists with specialists in arctic oceanography and climate to convey to a new generation of scientists the opportunities and challenges of arctic climate observations and modeling. Young scientists gained hands-on experience during the field campaign and learned about key issues in arctic climate from observational, diagnostic, and modeling perspectives. The summer school consisted of background lectures, participation in fieldwork and mini-projects. The mini-projects were performed in collaboration with summer school instructors and members of the expedition. Key topics covered in the lectures included: - arctic climate: key characteristics and processes; - physical processes in the Arctic Ocean; - sea ice and the Arctic Ocean; - trace gases, aerosols, and chemistry: importance for climate changes; - feedbacks in the arctic system (e.g., surface albedo, clouds, water vapor, circulation); - arctic climate variations: past, ongoing, and projected; - global climate models: an overview. An outreach specialist from the Miami Science Museum was writing a blog from the icebreaker with some very impressive statistics (results as of January 1, 2014): Total number of blog posts: 176 Blog posts written/contributed by scientists: 42 Blog views: 22,684 Comments: 1,215 Number of countries who viewed the blog: 89 (on 6 continents) The 33-day long NABOS expedition started on August 22, 2013 from Kirkenes, Norway. The vessel ("Akademik Fedorov") returned to

Changing Arctic: A Strategic Analysis of United States Arctic Policy and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-01

is below the constellation Ursa Minor, or the Great Bear . Hence, the word Arctic comes from the Greek word arktos or “ bear .” 7 The generally...13 David Curtis Wright , Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute., and Canadian Electronic Library (Firm), "The Panda ... Bear Readies to Meet the Polar Bear China and Canada’s Arctic Sovereignty Challenge," Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute, p. 4 67

Possible changes in the dose of biologically active ultraviolet radiation received by the biosphere in the summertime Arctic due to total ozone interannual variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gruzdev, Aleksandr N. (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation))

1994-12-01

Data for total ozone measurements since 1972 from the world ozone measuring network have been analyzed to study ozone interannual variability and estimate its possible effect on the UV-B dose received by the arctic biosphere. Possible interannual changes in the UV-B dose received by DNA associated with overall interannual ozone variability, as well as with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone were computed for different summer months. In general, the largest interannual variations in UV-B dose may occur in the Russian Arctic, whereas the possible variations in the Canadian Arctic are the smallest. Overall variations in the UV-B dose received by DNA can exceed 25% (2[sigma] criterion) in the Taimyr and Severnaya Zemlya for June and July, and 30% in the Laptev Sea for August. In the European sector of the Arctic, the possible variations are greater than 10%, and can exceed 15% in the north Norwegian Sea for July and 20% in Spitsbergen for August. Possible overall variations in the Canadian Arctic and Alaska are [<=]10%, reaching 15% in Alaska for August, however. The total ozone QBO can also cause essential and (statistically) predicted changes in UV-B radiation. In general, the UV-B dose received by DNA is found to be greater in the Arctic during the westerly phase of the QBO of the equatorial stratospheric wind at 50 mb level than during the easterly phase. The difference can reach or exceed 15% (relative to the mean value) in Taimyr for June and in Severnaya Zemlya for July and August. In northern Europe and Iceland, the difference can reach 10% for August. In the Canadian Arctic, the QBO-related effect is small. In Alaska, the appropriate difference in UV-B dose has an opposite sign for August, exceeding 5% in magnitude

Rapid meridional transport of tropical airmasses to the Arctic during the major stratospheric warming in January 2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kleinböhl

2005-01-01

Full Text Available We present observations of unusually high values of ozone and N2O in the middle stratosphere that were observed by the airborne submillimeter radiometer ASUR in the Arctic. The observations took place in the meteorological situation of a major stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2003 and was dominated by a wave 2 event. On 23 January 2003 the observed N2O and O3 mixing ratios around 69° N in the middle stratosphere reached maximum values of ~190 ppb and ~10 ppm, respectively. The similarities of these N2O profiles in a potential temperature range between 800 and 1200 K with N2O observations around 20° N on 1 March 2003 by the same instrument suggest that the observed Arctic airmasses were transported from the tropics quasi-isentropically. This is confirmed by 5-day back trajectory calculations which indicate that the airmasses between about 800 and 1000 K had been located around 20° N 3–5 days prior to the measurement in the Arctic. Calculations with a linearized ozone chemistry model along calculated as well as idealized trajectories, initialized with the low-latitude ASUR ozone measurements, give reasonable agreement with the Arctic ozone measurement by ASUR. PV distributions suggest that these airmasses did not stay confined in the Arctic region which makes it unlikely that this dynamical situation lead to the formation of dynamically caused pockets of low ozone.

Exclusion of brown lemmings reduces vascular plant cover and biomass in Arctic coastal tundra: resampling of a 50 + year herbivore exclosure experiment near Barrow, Alaska

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, D R; Lara, M J; Tweedie, C E; Shaver, G R; Batzli, G O; Shaw, J D

2011-01-01

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types. In general, the abundance of lichens and bryophytes increased with the exclusion of lemmings, whereas graminoids decreased, although the magnitude of these responses varied among land cover types. These results suggest that sustained lemming activity promotes a higher biomass of vascular plant functional types than would be expected without their presence and highlights the importance of considering herbivory when interpreting patterns of greening in the Arctic. In light of the rapid environmental change ongoing in the Arctic and the potential regional to global implications of this change, further exploration regarding the long-term influence of arvicoline rodents on ecosystem function (e.g. carbon and energy balance) should be considered a research priority.

Lessons learned in managing crowdsourced data in the Alaskan Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Mastracci, Diana

2017-04-01

There is perhaps no place in which the consequences of global climate change can be felt more acutely than the Arctic. However, due to lack of measurements at the high latitudes, validation processes are often problematic. Citizen science projects, co-designed together with Native communities at the interface of traditional knowledge and scientific research, could play a major role in climate change adaptation strategies by advancing knowledge of the Arctic system, strengthening inter-generational bonds and facilitating improved knowledge transfer. This presentation will present lessons learned from a pilot project in the Alaskan Arctic, in which innovative approaches were used to design climate change adaptation strategies to support young subsistence hunters in taking in-situ measurements whilst out on the sea-ice. Both the socio-cultural and hardware/software challenges presented in this presentation, could provide useful guidance for future programs that aim to integrate citizens' with scientific data in Arctic communities.

Factors Controlling Methane in Arctic Lakes of Southwest Greenland.

Science.gov (United States)

Northington, Robert M; Saros, Jasmine E

2016-01-01

We surveyed 15 lakes during the growing season of 2014 in Arctic lakes of southwest Greenland to determine which factors influence methane concentrations in these systems. Methane averaged 2.5 μmol L-1 in lakes, but varied a great deal across the landscape with lakes on older landscapes farther from the ice sheet margin having some of the highest values of methane reported in lakes in the northern hemisphere (125 μmol L-1). The most important factors influencing methane in Greenland lakes included ionic composition (SO4, Na, Cl) and chlorophyll a in the water column. DOC concentrations were also related to methane, but the short length of the study likely underestimated the influence and timing of DOC on methane concentrations in the region. Atmospheric methane concentrations are increasing globally, with freshwater ecosystems in northern latitudes continuing to serve as potentially large sources in the future. Much less is known about how freshwater lakes in Greenland fit in the global methane budget compared to other, more well-studied areas of the Arctic, hence our work provides essential data for a more complete view of this rapidly changing region.

Continuous daylight in the high-Arctic summer supports high plankton respiration rates compared to those supported in the dark

KAUST Repository

Mesa, Elena; Delgado-Huertas, Antonio; Carrillo-de-Albornoz, Paloma; Garcí a-Corral, Lara S.; Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Wassmann, Paul; Reigstad, Marit; Sejr, Mikael; Dalsgaard, Tage; Duarte, Carlos M.

2017-01-01

Plankton respiration rate is a major component of global CO2 production and is forecasted to increase rapidly in the Arctic with warming. Yet, existing assessments in the Arctic evaluated plankton respiration in the dark. Evidence that plankton

Transport Regimes of Air Masses Affecting the Tropospheric Composition of the Canadian and European Arctic During RACEPAC 2014 and NETCARE 2014/2015

Science.gov (United States)

Bozem, H.; Hoor, P. M.; Koellner, F.; Kunkel, D.; Schneider, J.; Schulz, C.; Herber, A. B.; Borrmann, S.; Wendisch, M.; Ehrlich, A.; Leaitch, W. R.; Willis, M. D.; Burkart, J.; Thomas, J. L.; Abbatt, J.

2015-12-01

The Arctic is warming much faster than any other place in the world and undergoes a rapid change dominated by a changing climate in this region. The impact of polluted air masses traveling to the Arctic from various remote sources significantly contributes to the observed climate change, in contrast there are additional local emission sources contributing to the level of pollutants (trace gases and aerosol). Processes affecting the emission and transport of these pollutants are not well understood and need to be further investigated. We present aircraft based trace gas measurements in the Arctic during RACEPAC (2014) and NETCARE (2014 and 2015) with the Polar 6 aircraft of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) covering an area from 134°W to 17°W and 68°N to 83°N. We focus on cloud, aerosol and general transport processes of polluted air masses into the high Arctic. Based on CO and CO2 measurements and kinematic 10-day back trajectories we analyze the transport regimes prevalent during spring (RACEPAC 2014 and NETCARE 2015) and summer (NETCARE 2014) in the observed region. Whereas the eastern part of the Canadian Arctic is affected by air masses with their origin in Asia, in the central and western parts of the Canadian and European Arctic air masses from North America are predominant at the time of the measurement. In general the more northern parts of the Arctic were relatively unaffected by pollution from mid-latitudes since air masses mostly travel within the polar dome, being quite isolated. Associated mixing ratios of CO and CO2 fit into the seasonal cycle observed at NOAA ground stations throughout the Arctic, but show a more mid-latitudinal characteristic at higher altitudes. The transition is remarkably sharp and allows for a chemical definition of the polar dome. At low altitudes, synoptic disturbances transport polluted air masses from mid-latitudes into regions of the polar dome. These air masses contribute to the Arctic pollution background, but also

Late Cretaceous seasonal ocean variability from the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E S; Pike, Jennifer

2009-07-09

The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as a barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming and therefore records of past Arctic change are critical for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the Late Cretaceous epoch (65-99 million years ago), yet records from such times may yield important clues to Arctic Ocean behaviour in near-future warmer climates. Here we present a seasonally resolved Cretaceous sedimentary record from the Alpha ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This palaeo-sediment trap provides new insight into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as was previously hypothesized. Rather, production occurred within a stratified water column, involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific subtropical gyre, or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels. With increased CO(2) levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean, this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer, but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter, supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean, rather than recent suggestions of a 15 degrees C mean annual temperature at this time.

Observations of bromine monoxide transport in the Arctic sustained on aerosol particles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. K. Peterson

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The return of sunlight in the polar spring leads to the production of reactive halogen species from the surface snowpack, significantly altering the chemical composition of the Arctic near-surface atmosphere and the fate of long-range transported pollutants, including mercury. Recent work has shown the initial production of reactive bromine at the Arctic surface snowpack; however, we have limited knowledge of the vertical extent of this chemistry, as well as the lifetime and possible transport of reactive bromine aloft. Here, we present bromine monoxide (BrO and aerosol particle measurements obtained during the March 2012 BRomine Ozone Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX near Utqiaġvik (Barrow, AK. The airborne differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS measurements provided an unprecedented level of spatial resolution, over 2 orders of magnitude greater than satellite observations and with vertical resolution unable to be achieved by satellite methods, for BrO in the Arctic. This novel method provided quantitative identification of a BrO plume, between 500 m and 1 km aloft, moving at the speed of the air mass. Concurrent aerosol particle measurements suggest that this lofted reactive bromine plume was transported and maintained at elevated levels through heterogeneous reactions on colocated supermicron aerosol particles, independent of surface snowpack bromine chemistry. This chemical transport mechanism explains the large spatial extents often observed for reactive bromine chemistry, which impacts atmospheric composition and pollutant fate across the Arctic region, beyond areas of initial snowpack halogen production. The possibility of BrO enhancements disconnected from the surface potentially contributes to sustaining BrO in the free troposphere and must also be considered in the interpretation of satellite BrO column observations, particularly in the context of the rapidly changing Arctic sea ice and snowpack.

Evaluating rapid ground sampling and scaling estimated plant cover using UAV imagery up to Landsat for mapping arctic vegetation

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, P.; Paradis, D. P.

2017-12-01

The small stature and spectral diversity of arctic plant taxa presents challenges in mapping arctic vegetation. Mapping vegetation at the appropriate scale is needed to visualize effects of disturbance, directional vegetation change or mapping of specific plant groups for other applications (eg. habitat mapping). Fine spatial grain of remotely sensed data (ca. 10 cm pixels) is often necessary to resolve patches of many arctic plant groups, such as bryophytes and lichens. These groups are also spectrally different from mineral, litter and vascular plants. We sought to explore method to generate high-resolution spatial and spectral data to explore better mapping methods for arctic vegetation. We sampled ground vegetation at seven sites north or west of tree-line in Alaska, four north of Fairbanks and three northwest of Bethel, respectively. At each site, we estimated cover of plant functional types in 1m2 quadrats spaced approximately every 10 m along a 100 m long transect. Each quadrat was also scanned using a field spectroradiometer (PSR+ Spectral Evolution, 400-2500 nm range) and photographed from multiple perspectives. We then flew our small UAV with a RGB camera over the transect and at least 50 m on either side collecting on imagery of the plot, which were used to generate a image mosaic and digital surface model of the plot. We compare plant functional group cover ocular estimated in situ to post-hoc estimation, either automated or using a human observer, using the quadrat photos. We also compare interpolated lichen cover from UAV scenes to estimated lichen cover using a statistical models using Landsat data, with focus on lichens. Light and yellow lichens are discernable in the UAV imagery but certain lichens, especially dark colored lichens or those with spectral signatures similar to graminoid litter, present challenges. Future efforts will focus on integrating UAV-upscaled ground cover estimates to hyperspectral sensors (eg. AVIRIS ng) for better combined

Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Parkinson, Alan J; Evengard, Birgitta; Semenza, Jan C

2014-01-01

The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may......., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses....

The influence of weather and lemmings on spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in the arctic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barry G Robinson

Full Text Available Climate change is occurring more rapidly in the Arctic than other places in the world, which is likely to alter the distribution and abundance of migratory birds breeding there. A warming climate can provide benefits to birds by decreasing spring snow cover, but increases in the frequency of summer rainstorms, another product of climate change, may reduce foraging opportunities for insectivorous birds. Cyclic lemming populations in the Arctic also influence bird abundance because Arctic foxes begin consuming bird eggs when lemmings decline. The complex interaction between summer temperature, precipitation, and the lemming cycle hinder our ability to predict how Arctic-breeding birds will respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between annual variation in weather, spring snow cover, lemming abundance and spatiotemporal variation in the abundance of multiple avian guilds in a tundra ecosystem in central Nunavut, Canada: songbirds, shorebirds, gulls, loons, and geese. We spatially stratified our study area based on vegetation productivity, terrain ruggedness, and freshwater abundance, and conducted distance sampling to estimate strata-specific densities of each guild during the summers of 2010-2012. We also monitored temperature, rainfall, spring snow cover, and lemming abundance each year. Spatial variation in bird abundance matched what was expected based on previous ecological knowledge, but weather and lemming abundance also significantly influenced the abundance of some guilds. In particular, songbirds were less abundant during the cool, wet summer with moderate snow cover, and shorebirds and gulls declined with lemming abundance. The abundance of geese did not vary over time, possibly because benefits created by moderate spring snow cover were offset by increased fox predation when lemmings were scarce. Our study provides an example of a simple way to monitor the correlation between

Emission Changes Dwarf the Influence of Feeding Habits on Temporal Trends of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Two Arctic Top Predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Routti, Heli; Aars, Jon; Fuglei, Eva; Hanssen, Linda; Lone, Karen; Polder, Anuschka; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Tartu, Sabrina; Welker, Jeffrey M; Yoccoz, Nigel G

2017-10-17

We monitored concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in relation to climate-associated changes in feeding habits and food availability in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) (192 plasma and 113 liver samples, respectively) sampled from Svalbard, Norway, during 1997-2014. PFASs concentrations became greater with increasing dietary trophic level, as bears and foxes consumed more marine as opposed to terrestrial food, and as the availability of sea ice habitat increased. Long-chained perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) in arctic foxes decreased with availability of reindeer carcasses. The ∼9-14% yearly decline of C 6-8 perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs) following the cease in C 6-8 PFSA precursor production in 2001 indicates that the peak exposure was mainly a result of atmospheric transport of the volatile precursors. However, the stable PFSA concentrations since 2009-2010 suggest that Svalbard biota is still exposed to ocean-transported PFSAs. Long-chain ocean-transported PFCAs increased 2-4% per year and the increase in C 12-14 PFCAs in polar bears tended to level off since ∼2009. Emerging short-chain PFASs showed no temporal changes. Climate-related changes in feeding habits and food availability moderately affected PFAS trends. Our results indicate that PFAS concentrations in polar bears and arctic foxes are mainly affected by emissions.

Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

2008-11-01

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends

The nature of spatial transitions in the Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

H. E. Epstein; J. Beringer; W. A. Gould; A. H. Lloyd; C. D. Thompson; F. S. Chapin III; G. J. Michaelson; C. L. Ping; T. S. Rupp; D. A. Walker

2004-01-01

Aim Describe the spatial and temporal properties of transitions in the Arctic and develop a conceptual understanding of the nature of these spatial transitions in the face of directional environmental change. Location Arctic tundra ecosystems of the North Slope of Alaska and the tundraforest region of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Methods We synthesize information from...

Arctic Ocean Paleoceanography and Future IODP Drilling

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Ruediger

2015-04-01

Although the Arctic Ocean is a major player in the global climate/earth system, this region is one of the last major physiographic provinces on Earth where the short- and long-term geological history is still poorly known. This lack in knowledge is mainly due to the major technological/logistical problems in operating within the permanently ice-covered Arctic region which makes it difficult to retrieve long and undisturbed sediment cores. Prior to 2004, in the central Arctic Ocean piston and gravity coring was mainly restricted to obtaining near-surface sediments, i.e., only the upper 15 m could be sampled. Thus, all studies were restricted to the late Pliocene/Quaternary time interval, with a few exceptions. These include the four short cores obtained by gravity coring from drifting ice floes over the Alpha Ridge, where older pre-Neogene organic-carbon-rich muds and laminated biosiliceous oozes were sampled. Continuous central Arctic Ocean sedimentary records, allowing a development of chronologic sequences of climate and environmental change through Cenozoic times and a comparison with global climate records, however, were missing prior to the IODP Expedition 302 (Arctic Ocean Coring Expedition - ACEX), the first scientific drilling in the central Arctic Ocean. By studying the unique ACEX sequence, a large number of scientific discoveries that describe previously unknown Arctic paleoenvironments, were obtained during the last decade (for most recent review and references see Stein et al., 2014). While these results from ACEX were unprecedented, key questions related to the climate history of the Arctic Ocean remain unanswered, in part because of poor core recovery, and in part because of the possible presence of a major mid-Cenozoic hiatus or interval of starved sedimentation within the ACEX record. In order to fill this gap in knowledge, international, multidisciplinary expeditions and projects for scientific drilling/coring in the Arctic Ocean are needed. Key

A veterinary perspective on One Health in the Arctic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sonne, Christian; Letcher, Robert James; Jenssen, Bjørn Munro

2017-01-01

Exposure to long-range transported industrial chemicals, climate change and diseases is posing a risk to the overall health and populations of Arctic wildlife. Since local communities are relying on the same marine food web as marine mammals in the Arctic, it requires a One Health approach...

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

Science.gov (United States)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

1996-01-01

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Methane emissions from a high arctic valley: findings and challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mastepanov, Mikhail; Sigsgaard, Charlotte; Ström, Lena

2008-01-01

Wet tundra ecosystems are well-known to be a significant source of atmospheric methane. With the predicted stronger effect of global climate change on arctic terrestrial ecosystems compared to lower-latitudes, there is a special obligation to study the natural diversity and the range of possible...... feedback effects on global climate that could arise from Arctic tundra ecosystems. One of the prime candidates for such a feedback mechanism is a potential change in the emissions of methane. Long-term datasets on methane emissions from high arctic sites are almost non-existing but badly needed...... for analyses of controls on interannual and seasonal variations in emissions. To help fill this gap we initiated a measurement program in a productive high arctic fen in the Zackenberg valley, NE Greenland. Methane flux measurements have been carried out at the same location since 1997. Compared...

An Arctic source for the Great Salinity Anomaly - A simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955-1975

Science.gov (United States)

Hakkinen, Sirpa

1993-01-01

The paper employs a fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model to study the interannual variability of sea ice during the period 1955-1975 and to explain the large variability of the ice extent in the Greenland and Iceland seas during the late 1960s. The model is used to test the contention of Aagaard and Carmack (1989) that the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) was a consequence of the anomalously large ice export in 1968. The high-latitude ice-ocean circulation changes due to wind field changes are explored. The ice export event of 1968 was the largest in the simulation, being about twice as large as the average and corresponding to 1600 cu km of excess fresh water. The simulations suggest that, besides the above average ice export to the Greenland Sea, there was also fresh water export to support the larger than average ice cover. The model results show the origin of the GSA to be in the Arctic, and support the view that the Arctic may play an active role in climate change.

The scramble for the Arctic? A discourse analysis of Norway and the EU's strategies towards the European Arctic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grindheim, Astrid

2009-11-15

This report examines the discourses on engagement in the European Arctic. Since 2006, both Norway and the EU have launched strategies directed toward engagement in the North. By means of discourse analysis, the report will investigate how the two actors have portrayed and discussed the European Arctic. Taking a social constructivist approach, it is assumed that regions are what we make them to be, and that discourse analysis can indicate the area of action for the region. Special attention will be paid to climate change, environmental issues and energy, as these issues play a prominent role in the Arctic. The region shows evident signs of climate change - but it also contains perhaps 25% of the world's untapped energy resources. This creates tension between the wish to preserve the environment and the climate, and the business potential of the energy reservoirs. The European Arctic was of high geostrategic importance during the Cold War, and there is now talk of a possible renewal of that role. The report applies the theoretical approach developed by Buzan, Waever and de Wilde (1998) about the widened security concept in examining whether the two actors' discourses are framed within security terms and within a security framework. (Author)

Behavioral Ecology of Narwhals in a Changing Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

impacted by increasing anthropogenic activities in Baffin Bay (increasing shipping, future transit through the NW Passage, seismic exploration, increasing...whistles being missed). Second, we utlilized a custom made 16 channel vertical array (with a laptop and pre-amplifier inside an insulated aluminium...management considering ongoing and expected significant increases in anthropogenic sound (e.g., seismic exploration, shipping) in the Arctic. The

The great challenges in Arctic Ocean paleoceanography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stein, Ruediger

2011-01-01

Despite the importance of the Arctic in the climate system, the data base we have from this area is still very weak, and large parts of the climate history have not been recovered at all in sedimentary sections. In order to fill this gap in knowledge, international, multidisciplinary expeditions and projects for scientific drilling/coring in the Arctic Ocean are needed. Key areas and approaches for drilling and recovering undisturbed and complete sedimentary sequences are depth transects across the major ocean ridge systems, i.e., the Lomonosov Ridge, the Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge, and the Chukchi Plateau/Northwind Ridge, the Beaufort, Kara and Laptev sea continental margins, as well as the major Arctic gateways towards the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The new detailed climate records from the Arctic Ocean spanning time intervals from the Late Cretaceous/Paleogene Greenhouse world to the Neogene-Quaternary Icehouse world and representing short- and long-term climate variability on scales from 10 to 10 6 years, will give new insights into our understanding of the Arctic Ocean within the global climate system and provide an opportunity to test the performance of climate models used to predict future climate change. With this, studying the Arctic Ocean is certainly one of the major challenges in climate research for the coming decades.