WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapidly changing agricultural

  1. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    How will increases in levels of CO 2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO 2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO 2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO 2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  2. Changing closed agricultural policy communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Werkman, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural policy networks have served as classic examples of closed policy communities facing pressure to open up. However, attempts to change them are slowly moving forward. The dialogues on Common Agricultural Policy reforms in which the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture is engaged with a range of

  3. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  4. Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Newton, Peter; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Kuhl, Laura; Samberg, Leah; Ricciardi, Vincent; Manly, Jessica R.; Northrop, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people directly depend on smallholder farming systems. These people now face a changing climate and associated societal responses. We use mapping and a literature review to juxtapose the climate fate of smallholder systems with that of other agricultural

  5. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  6. Climate Change: A Threat to Agricultural Production in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In recent times, climate change has generated a global issue of discourse, because of its potential effects on the human interest, including agriculture. It is observed that absence of rapid response strategies to both short and long term climate change, including climate variability will have significant effect on the agricultural ...

  7. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  8. Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Jieming; Dong, Wenjie; Wang, Shuyu; Fu, Yuqing

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; During 1949-2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country's eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

  9. Rapid detection of genetic modification for GMO monitoring in agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Sofija

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Transgenic technology has expanded the ways of new genetic variability creation. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs are organisms which total genome is altered in a way that could not happen in nature. GM crops recorded a steady increase in its share in agricultural production. However, for the most part, GMO in agriculture has been limited to two cultivars - soy and corn, and the two genetic modifications, the total herbicide resistance and pest of the Lepidoptera genus. In order to monitor cultivation and trade of GMOs, tests of different precision are used, qualitatively and/or quantitatively determining the presence of genetic modification. Tests for the rapid determination of the presence of GM are suitable, since they can be implemented quickly and accurately, in terms of declared sensitivity, outside or in the laboratory. The example of the use of rapid tests demonstrates their value in use for rapid and efficient monitoring.

  10. Comment 5 - agricultural response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruttan, V.W.

    1992-01-01

    The complex interrelationship between global climate change and agricultural production will become one of the most significant policy issues, in both developed and developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. Global and regional climate change will modify both agricultural production capacity and its location. And the intensity of agricultural production will contribute to environmental change at both the regional and global levels

  11. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale environmental change and the extent to which policies to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to environmental change may affect agriculture and hunger. These issues are likely to become ...

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    www.globaljournalseries.com; Email: info@globaljournalseries.com. CLIMATE ... and hunger. These issues are likely to become especially important in making decisions not only about how to reduce .... Agriculture is the largest single consumer of fresh water ..... imply increased refrigeration loads at the same time that.

  13. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    to adapt to climate change automatically implies vulnerability [14]. Thus, a .... this pattern is that rainfall may not be witnessed when desired for agricultural production .... climate change since it will enhance their ability to adopt innovations and ...

  14. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X [ed.; UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark); Clements, R; Quezada, A; Torres, J [Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru); Haggar, J [Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  15. Declining agricultural production in rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions: policy tradeoffs and sustainability indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, André Q.; Arabi, Mazdak; Wostoupal, Benjamin C.; Goemans, Christopher G.; Zhang, Yao; Paustian, Keith

    2017-08-01

    In rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions, increasing amounts of historically irrigated cropland lies permanently fallowed due to water court policies as agricultural water rights are voluntarily being sold to growing cities. This study develops an integrative framework for assessing the effects of population growth and land use change on agricultural production and evaluating viability of alternative management strategies, including alternative agricultural transfer methods, regional water ownership restrictions, and urban conservation. A partial equilibrium model of a spatially-diverse regional water rights market is built in application of the framework to an exemplary basin. The model represents agricultural producers as profit-maximizing suppliers and municipalities as cost-minimizing consumers of water rights. Results indicate that selling an agricultural water right today is worth up to two times more than 40 years of continued production. All alternative policies that sustain agricultural cropland and crop production decrease total agricultural profitability by diminishing water rights sales revenue, but in doing so, they also decrease municipal water acquisition costs. Defining good indicators and incorporating adequate spatial and temporal detail are critical to properly analyzing policy impacts. To best improve agricultural profit from production and sale of crops, short-term solutions include alternative agricultural transfer methods while long-term solutions incorporate urban conservation.

  16. The Change Path of Agricultural Production Outsourcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The system of agricultural production outsourcing is a breakpoint for the development of agriculture and immigration worker’s urbanization. The analysis based on framework of the Institutional Change reveals that as a whole,the outsourcing system of agricultural production improves the welfare of society effectively. To some extents,it also can solve the problem of food security. The rural transferring labor-forces who realize the institutional change in the initial stage are is the first Action Group to gain the potential benefits. Local governments are a breakpoint of induced institutional change, which find potential benefits and then change the role of system changes. The central government is in dominant statue during the whole change. The outsourcing is a kind of improvement to the Family Contracted System, also an adaption to an imperfect Chinese rural social security. So the outsourcing has a positive meaning in the rural area.

  17. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shailesh Shrestha

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change. Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe. Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.

  18. Climate change and agriculture in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olesen, J.E.

    2001-01-01

    This chapter reviews the current knowledge on effects of climate change on agriculture in Denmark, and the contribution of agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark. The chapter also considers the possibilities of Danish agriculture to adapt to changing climate and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The relations to other aspects of global change are discussed, including liberalisation of world markets and changes in land use. Scenarios of climate change for Denmark suggest increases in annual mean temperature of 1 to 4 deg. C by the end of the 21st century depending on socioeconomic development. Winter rainfall may increase up to 20%. This implies a wide range of possible consequences. Agricultural productivity may be expected to increase under increasing temperature and increasing CO 2 concentration. Highter temperatures will increase the risk of pests and deseases. Warming in association with increased winter rainfall will also increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Climate change may thus be expected to reinforce the current trends in Danish agriculture of declining cattle population and increasing pig and cereal production. Apart from an anticipated continued decline in total agricultural area, land use will probably not be greatly affected. The current environmental regulation in Denmark aims at reducing pesticide use and nitrogen losses from agriculture. Some of the regulations are very detailed and directly regulate farming practices in a manner that may not provide the most cost-effective mechanism under a changed climate. Some of these existing rigid frameworks for environmental regulation should thus be substituted by more flexible goal-oriented environmental protection strategies, in order to ensure sustainability of farming under global climate change. (LN)

  19. Climate change and agriculture. The agricultural industry = offender and victim

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burdick, B.

    1994-01-01

    Recently, attention has been repeatedly drawn to the rapidly increasing effects of human influences and the changing climate. The industrial landscape is seen as an important cause, with industrialisation and increasing energy consumption as well as our consumer society and the volume of traffic. The actual extent and speed of climatic change can only be estimated. The process leading to the current extent of scientific knowledge of climatic change, its possible extent and its effects on the plant and wildlife eco-systems are described in detail. Finally, counter-measures and recommendations for action are discussed. (orig.) [de

  20. Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2008-12-01

    Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

  1. Effects of climate change on US agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillet, L.

    2007-08-01

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO 2 levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO 2 is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  2. Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

    2013-07-01

    The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short

  3. Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bevaola Kusumasari

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This research strives to provide answers regarding adaptation patterns of farmers in confronting climate change in Indonesia. The method utilized for this research is a mixed method. Qualitative data was acquired through a series of focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with farmers and agricultural stakeholders in Gunung Kidul and Sleman, Indonesia. Additionally, the survey was carried out to 220 farmers in both research locations. The two research locations were chosen based on the difference in agricultural land. The findings of this research show that farmers understand climate change is occurring in their region and it influences their cultivation method. Farmers utilize their personal experiences as well as local practices in adapting to climate change. The impact most felt by farmers is crop failure and a decrease in quality and quantity of agricultural crops. The ensuing implication is that farmer’s income declines more and more. This research found that agricultural product cost increased by almost as much as 50%, whilst farmer’s income merely increased half of that, which is 25% since climate change has affected their farming. Responding to the matter, the strategy farmers employ is by changing the planting pattern, using soil cultivation technique, plant pest management technique, and watering/irrigation technique.

  4. Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Falco

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

  5. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  6. Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture. Increasing carbon dioxide: Good for most crops. Increase in mean temperature: orter ... Increasing rainfall intensity and dry days- more floods and droughts: Higher production variability. Himalayan glaciers to recede: irrigation in IGP gradually becomes less dependable ...

  7. Climate change and drought risks for agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, J.; Put, M.; Zaal, F.; Keulen, van H.

    2004-01-01

    Changes in rainfall patterns and risk of crop failure are discussed in this chapter. Agriculture is by far the most important economic activity in the region. The success of this economic activity relies heavily on water availability during the growing season. For rainfed production systems timing

  8. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services coordinators - are involved in the implementation of the plan. Unfortunately, they are far from ...

  9. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    climate change in eight selected rural settlements in Sokoto State, Nigeria adopting the ... on the environmental and socio-economic determinants of agricultural vulnerability to .... global warming show increasing trends in Sokoto. .... One of the consequences of desertification is southward migration of nomads to the more.

  10. Global climate change and California agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

    1991-01-01

    This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

  11. The economics of climate change in agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zilberman, D.; Liu, Xuemei; Roland-Holst, D.; Sunding, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility

  12. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

    2011-04-12

    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  13. Agricultural nutrient loadings to the freshwater environment: the role of climate change and socioeconomic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia

    2017-10-01

    Human activities, in particular agricultural production, interfere with natural cycles of nutrient elements, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), leading to growing concerns about water quality degradation related to excessive nutrient loadings. Increases in agricultural production in response to population growth and wealth generation further increase risks associated with nutrient pollution. This paper presents results from projections of nutrient exports from global agricultural crop and pasture systems to the water environment generated using a process-based modeling approach. Brazil, China, India and the United States account for more than half of estimated global N and P loadings in the base year. Each country boasts large agriculture centers where high calculated loading values are found. Rapid growth in global agricultural nutrient loadings is projected. Growth of agricultural pollution loading is fastest in the group of low-income developing countries and loading growth rates also vary substantially with climate change scenario. Counter measures need to be taken to address the environmental risks associated with the projected rapid increase of agricultural nutrient loadings.

  14. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  15. The National Agriculture Imagery Program Change 2002-2017

    Data.gov (United States)

    Farm Service Agency, Department of Agriculture — The National Agriculture Imagery Program Change 2002-2017 is a web mapping application hosted on the ArcGIS online FSA Organizational Subscription. This web...

  16. Agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The report entitled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation : A Canadian Perspective, presents a summary of research regarding the impacts of climate change on key sectors over the past five years as it relates to Canada. This chapter on agriculture describes how climate change will affect primary agriculture production in Canada with particular focus on potential adaptation options, and vulnerability of agriculture at the farm level. Agriculture is a vital part of the Canadian economy, although only 7 per cent of Canada's land mass is used for agricultural purposes due to the limitations of climate and soils. Most parts of Canada are expected to experience warmer conditions, longer frost-free seasons and increased evapotranspiration. The impacts of these changes on agriculture will vary depending on precipitation changes, soil conditions, and land use. Northern regions may benefit from longer farming seasons, but poor soil conditions will limit the northward expansion of agricultural crops. Some of the negative impacts associated with climate change on agriculture include increased droughts, changes in pest and pathogen outbreaks, and moisture stress. In general, it is expected that the positive and negative impacts of climate change would offset each other. 74 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  17. The Land Use Change From Agricultural to Non-Agricultural in Bungo Regency, Jambi Province, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolly, Fajar Ifan; Kismartini, Kismartini; Purnaweni, Hartuti

    2018-02-01

    This study aimed at observing the development of agricultural land use in Bungo Regency, Jambi Province, for other purposes, such as plantation, mining, and other commercial buildings. According to the sustainable agriculture supposed by the government, a change in land use has become an important issue to be taken into account as such that the change does not tend to damage the environment. The research findings from Bungo Regency demonstrated the change in agricultural land into copra and rubber plantation areas. Local people had changed their mindset towards reluctance to become farmers, which caused the loss of farmer regeneration and weakened the farmer exchange rate towards the agricultural commodities.

  18. Outlook on Agricultural Changes and its Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Vuuren, Detlef; Ochola, Washington; Riha, Susan

    2009-01-01

    The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development (IAASTD) looks realistically at how we could effectively use agriculture/AKST to help us meet development and sustainability goals. An unprecedented three-year collaborative effort, the IAASTD involved...

  19. Agricultural land use change in the Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    The USDA Census of Agriculture (http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/) provides county-level estimates of farm numbers, land use area and livestock and crop production every five years. In 2007, only eight of the 299 counties that make up the twelve Northeastern states had no agricultural land use. About 20...

  20. The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, P.; Howat, I. M.; Ahn, Y.; Porter, C.; McFadden, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The recent expansion of observational capacity from space has revealed dramatic, rapid changes in the Earth’s ice cover. These discoveries have fundamentally altered how scientists view ice-sheet change. Instead of just slow changes in snow accumulation and melting over centuries or millennia, important changes can occur in sudden events lasting only months, weeks, or even a single day. Our understanding of these short time- and space-scale processes, which hold important implications for future global sea level rise, has been impeded by the low temporal and spatial resolution, delayed sensor tasking, incomplete coverage, inaccessibility and/or high cost of data available to investigators. New cross-agency partnerships and data access policies provide the opportunity to dramatically improve the resolution of ice sheet observations by an order of magnitude, from timescales of months and distances of 10’s of meters, to days and meters or less. Advances in image processing technology also enable application of currently under-utilized datasets. The infrastructure for systematically gathering, processing, analyzing and distributing these data does not currently exist. Here we present the development of a multi-institutional, multi-platform observatory for rapid ice change with the ultimate objective of helping to elucidate the relevant timescales and processes of ice sheet dynamics and response to climate change. The Rapid Ice Sheet Observatory (RISCO) gathers observations of short time- and space-scale Cryosphere events and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media and general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO focuses on three types of geo-referenced raster (image) data products in a format immediately viewable with commonly available software. These three products are (1) sequences of images

  1. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  2. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  3. Cultivated Land Changes and Agricultural Potential Productivity in Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linlin Xiao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available With rapid and continuous population growth and the associated declining quality of cultivated land, food security in China has been attracting the attention of scholars both domestically and internationally. In recent decades, the implications of the cultivated land balance policy have promoted spatial changes of cultivated land. Estimating the agricultural potential productivity and assessing its response to cultivated land changes could provide a scientific basis for strategic decision-making concerning grain production and thus guarantee food security. In the present study, the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ model was applied to estimate the agricultural potential productivity. Data from the second national land survey were first applied to characterize the changes of cultivated land (by comparing the cultivated land in 2009 with that in 2012 and their influence on potential productivity in Mainland China. We propose a utilization degree of total potential productivity (UTP and its ratio coefficient (RUTP to reveal the utilization status of potential productivity and its change characteristics at the provincial level. It was found that there was a trend for cultivated land to be shifted away from cities, and the average productive capability per hectare of cultivated land declined from 7386.5 kg/ha to 6955.2 kg/ha by occupying highly productive cultivated land generally near the cities and compensating less productive cultivated land in remote areas. UTPs and RUTPs indicate a significant difference in the utilization status of potential productivity among the 31 provinces of Mainland China. Grain production with the aim of sustainable development should be strategized according to the particular facts of each province. The methods we applied can mine the impacts of cultivated land changes on potential productivity and the utilization of potential productivity effectively.

  4. Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A Ricardian Analysis Based on Time Series Data. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different seasons. Climate ...

  5. Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reilly, J.; Baethgen, W.; Chege, F.E.; Geijn, van de S.C.; Lin Erda,; Iglesias, A.; Kenny, G.; Patterson, D.; Rogasik, J.; Rötter, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Sombroek, W.; Westbrook, J.; Bachelet, D.; Brklacich, M.; Dämmgen, U.; Howden, M.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter deals with sensitivities, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. It covers: the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and atmospheric constituents on crop yield, soils, agricultural pests, and livestock; estimates of yield and production

  6. Trajectories of agricultural change in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falconnier, G.N.

    2016-01-01

    Key words: longitudinal study, farm typology, food self-sufficiency, income, legumes, ex-ante analysis, participatory research, scenario.

    Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa provides basis of rural livelihoods and food security, yet farmers have to cope with land constraints,

  7. Trajectories of agricultural change in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falconnier, G.N.

    2016-01-01

    Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa provides basis of rural livelihoods and food security, yet farmers have to cope with land constraints, variable rainfall and unstable institutional support. This study integrates a diversity of approaches (household typology and understanding of farm

  8. Rapid genetic turnover in populations of the insect pest Bemisia tabaci Middle East: Asia Minor 1 in an agricultural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsdale, A; Schellhorn, N A; De Barro, P; Buckley, Y M; Riginos, C

    2012-10-01

    Organisms differ greatly in dispersal ability, and landscapes differ in amenability to an organism's movement. Thus, landscape structure and heterogeneity can affect genetic composition of populations. While many agricultural pests are known for their ability to disperse rapidly, it is unclear how fast and over what spatial scale insect pests might respond to the temporally dynamic agricultural landscapes they inhabit. We used population genetic analyses of a severe crop pest, a member of the Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Aleyrodoidea: Aleyrodidea) cryptic species complex known as Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (commonly known as biotype B), to estimate spatial and temporal genetic diversity over four months of the 2006-2007 summer growing season. We examined 559 individuals from eight sites, which were scored for eight microsatellite loci. Temporal genetic structure greatly exceeded spatial structure. There was significant temporal change in local genetic composition from the beginning to the end of the season accompanied by heterozygote deficits and inbreeding. This temporal structure suggests entire cohorts of pests can occupy a large and variable agricultural landscape but are rapidly replaced. These rapid genetic fluctuations reinforce the concept that agricultural landscapes are dynamic mosaics in time and space and may contribute to better decisions for pest and insecticide resistance management.

  9. Rapid Change Detection Algorithm for Disaster Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, U.; Thunig, H.; Ehlers, M.; Reinartz, P.

    2012-07-01

    This paper focuses on change detection applications in areas where catastrophic events took place which resulted in rapid destruction especially of manmade objects. Standard methods for automated change detection prove not to be sufficient; therefore a new method was developed and tested. The presented method allows a fast detection and visualization of change in areas of crisis or catastrophes. While often new methods of remote sensing are developed without user oriented aspects, organizations and authorities are not able to use these methods because of absence of remote sensing know how. Therefore a semi-automated procedure was developed. Within a transferable framework, the developed algorithm can be implemented for a set of remote sensing data among different investigation areas. Several case studies are the base for the retrieved results. Within a coarse dividing into statistical parts and the segmentation in meaningful objects, the framework is able to deal with different types of change. By means of an elaborated Temporal Change Index (TCI) only panchromatic datasets are used to extract areas which are destroyed, areas which were not affected and in addition areas where rebuilding has already started.

  10. Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mestre-Sanchis, Fernando [Agriculture and Food Department, University of La Rioja (Spain); Feijoo-Bello, Maria Luisa [Economics Department, University of Zaragoza (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    The agriculture of some areas considered marginal in the EU agricultural context is being questioned due to its low productivity and growing dependence on economic aid programs Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This study shows that climate change increases these areas marginalisation of since worsens crop growth conditions. The influence of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed using the Multicriteria Decision Paradigm with information provided by the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) and a General Circulation Model (GCM) as inputs for multicriteria mathematical programming models. The results obtained show climate change effects on the crop portfolio. Further results suggest that climate change effects are not only economics and environmental, reducing the suitable area for crops, but also social as it causes loss of jobs in the agricultural sector. (author)

  11. Structural Change Out of Agriculture: Labor Push versus Labor Pull

    OpenAIRE

    Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado; Markus Poschke

    2011-01-01

    The process of economic development is characterized by substantial rural-urban migrations and a decreasing share of agriculture in output and employment. The literature highlights two main engines behind this process of structural change: (i) improvements in agricultural technology combined with the effect of Engel's law of demand push resources out of the agricultural sector (the "labor push" hypothesis), and (ii) improvements in industrial technology attract labor into this sector (the "la...

  12. Agriculture and water in Shunyi District, Beijing; results of a rapid diagnostic appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamphuis, B.M.; Jongbloed, A.W.; Keulen, van H.; Cheng, X.; Lu, C.

    2004-01-01

    Land use and agriculture in Shunyi District were studied in a Rapid Diagnostic Appraisal (RDA) held November 2003 in the frame of the project `Resource Management Options in the Greater Beijing Area`. Officials of governmental institutions in Shunyi were interviewed and during three days, a team of

  13. Effects of climate change on agricultural production and rural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria is still practicing rain fed agriculture which renders her vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Extreme climatic events such as flooding, extreme heat, and drought has led to soil degradation which results in low crop yields. Decline in agricultural productivity discourages the farmers and may lead to ...

  14. The resilience of integrated agricultural systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Cohn, Avery S.; Duncan, John; Newton, Peter; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2017-01-01

    We reviewed studies addressing the extent to which more integrated agricultural systems (IAS) have been found to be more resilient to climate variability and climate change than more specialized agricultural systems. We found limited literature directly addressing the topic, necessitating the use of

  15. Short Note Potential impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These climate patterns play fundamental roles in shaping natural ecosystems, regional economies and cultures that depend on them. ... several ways such as productivity, in terms of quantity and quality, agricultural practices through changes of water use and agricultural inputs such as herbicides, insecticides and fertilizers.

  16. Agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sokoto State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although climate change is global threat, developing countries have been identified as most vulnerable owing to their low adaptive capacities. In Nigeria, while the impacts of climate cut across diverse sectors, agriculture remains the most susceptible due to the predominance of rainfed agriculture. This paper examines ...

  17. Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Arid and Semiarid ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    This project aims to strengthen the capacity of the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) to undertake climate change adaptation studies in the context of agricultural research. ... La gestion de l'eau dans les milieux urbains et ruraux, élément fondamental des villes qui savent s'adapter aux changements climatiques.

  18. Reinventing agricultural research : Changing context and moving targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struik, P.C.

    2006-01-01

    Future food security for the rapidly increasing human population is at stake because farmers need to produce more food on less land and with less water and energy. Natural resources will be less and less available for agriculture due to economic development, which diverts these resources to

  19. Climate change, diversified agriculture and adaptive capacity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Export-oriented sugar cane and pineapple plantation agriculture once dominated Hawaii's economy but over the latter half of the 20th Century, there was a rapid decline in the production of these crops as Hawaii's competitive advantage over foreign producers dwindled. The decline of the plantations c...

  20. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  1. Introduction: Greening the countryside? Changing frameworks of EU agricultural policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Philip; Feindt, Peter H; Vihinen, Hilkka

    2010-01-01

    In response to wide-ranging criticism of agricultural policy, especially within Western industrialized countries, new frameworks of justification are emerging and new hybrid policy fields have been established to tackle some of the ‘externalities’ of agricultural support. However, institutional frameworks are proving slower to change, partly because this would require coordinated action across different levels of governance. Nevertheless, previously marginalized environmental concerns have successfully gained entrance to agricultural policy networks, while the intersection of trade liberalization and rural diversification have undermined the dominance of the productivist mindset in government. This gives rise to a plurality of policy actors and actions which defy the conventional categories of analysis of agricultural policy, calling for changing frameworks on the polity of agriculture too.

  2. Climate Change Mitigation: The Role of Agriculture | Obiora ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Mitigation: The Role of Agriculture. ... rises which affect both crop and animal production, rising sea levels which causes farm land ... be encouraged (iii) extension services should promote awareness-raising about sustainable ...

  3. Costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom [Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (United Kingdom); Dysznski, Jillian [Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden); Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtenay Cabot

    2011-11-15

    Climate change poses a major challenge to agriculture. Rising temperatures will change crop growing seasons. And changing rainfall patterns will affect yield potentials. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has left the agricultural sector in many developing countries ill-prepared for the changes ahead. Policymakers and researchers alike acknowledge the need for adaptation within agriculture. But what action should be taken? And, more importantly, how much will it cost? Five case studies — of specific agricultural systems in Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Tanzania — provide fresh insights into the options available and likely costs, which are at least US$20,000 for an integrated cropping system in a village, and may well be more than US$100 million for a whole sector such as livestock in a country.

  4. The nexus of population change, agricultural expansion, landscape ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    -series landcover mapping for the years 1975, 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2007 with socio-economic variables such as data on agricultural productivity and population parameters to explain the phenomenon of change in the Volta gorge area.

  5. AGRICULTURAL TAX SYSTEM IN POLAND AND DIRECTIONS OF THE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzena Malewska

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A research problem taken in the article is a question, whether legal solutions applied in the Polish system of the taxation of agriculture have an appropriate shape and whether this system is optimal? If not, what are possible options of changes and whether the in-come tax is good for agricultural activities. A method of analysis of secondary sources was used in order to solve the research problem. Required data was taken from the base of the Główny Urząd Statystyczny and scientific publications of the publishing universi-ty. In the article were formulated the following hypotheses: 1.\tThe system of the taxation of agriculture is different than other existing Polish law and it is regarded as unfair in relation to other social groups. 2.\tChanging the tax system in agriculture is necessary and would lead to positive chang-es in the structure of agriculture. 3.\tThe reform of the taxation system of agricultural production is in many aspects neces-sary and beneficial, but it should nevertheless take into account the specificities of the agricultural activity. 4.\tThe introduction of the income tax has its bad side and carries the disadvantages for both farmers and municipalities.

  6. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-21

    Apr 21, 2016 ... Much of this biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change. ... an astonishing range of life forms found nowhere else on the planet. ... As well as improving information on climate change vulnerabilities, ... They also note negative effects on traditional knowledge, which is seen as losing its sacred power.

  7. Technologies for Climate Change Mitigation - Agriculture Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uprety, D.C.; Dhar, Subash; Hongmin, Dong

    This guidebook describes crop and livestock management technologies and practices that contribute to climate change mitigation while improving crop productivity, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, and lowering water consumption. It is co-authored by internationally recognised experts...

  8. Agriculture adaptation in climate change : adaptation report

    OpenAIRE

    Spiteri Gingell, David; Seychell, Martin; Attard, George; Borg, Simone; Cremona, Marco; Sammut, Charles; Muscat, Mark; Camilleri, George; Debono, Robert; The Climate Change Committee for Adaptation (CCCA)

    2010-01-01

    There is the need for a legal instrument that would first and foremost establish the executive powers of a new entity with overarching responsibilities and powers over all the authorities that have sectoral responsibilities for climate change. Such a legal instrument should also identify these sectoral authorities and their responsibilities, preferably within an Annex which could be amended and adjusted in a flexible manner. This instrument should be managed by a new unit on climate change wi...

  9. The changing role of agriculture and tomorrow's weed research agenda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kropff, M.J.; Bastiaans, L.; Kempenaar, C.; Weide, van der R.Y.

    2008-01-01

    With the changing position of agriculture in the world the challenges for weed management and weed science are changing as well. In this paper recent developments in weed science with respect to several aspects of weed management are discussed in relation to those changes. Developments in cultural

  10. Analysis of road development and associated agricultural land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alphan, Hakan

    2017-12-05

    Development of road network is one of the strongest drivers of habitat fragmentation. It interferes with ecological processes that are based on material and energy flows between landscape patches. Therefore, changes in temporal patterns of roads may be regarded as important landscape-level environmental indicators. The aim of this study is to analyze road development and associated agricultural land use change near the town of Erdemli located in the eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The study area has witnessed an unprecedented development of agriculture since the 2000s. This process has resulted with the expansion of the road network. Associations between agricultural expansion and road development were investigated. High-resolution satellite images of 2004 and 2015 were used to analyze spatial and temporal dimensions of change. Satellite images were classified using a binary approach, in which land areas were labeled as either "agriculture" or "non-agriculture." Road networks were digitized manually. The study area was divided into 23 sublandscapes using a regular grid with 1-km cell spacing. Percentage of landscape (PL) for agriculture and road density (RD) metrics were calculated for the earlier (2004) and later (2015) years. Metric calculations were performed separately for each of the 23 sublandscapes in order to understand spatial diversity of agriculture and road density. Study results showed that both RD and PL exhibited similar increasing trends between 2004 and 2015.

  11. Systems in peril: Climate change, agriculture and biodiversity in Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cocklin, Chris; Dibden, Jacqui

    2009-01-01

    This paper reflects on the interplay amongst three closely linked systems - climate, agriculture and biodiversity - in the Australian context. The advance of a European style of agriculture has imperilled Australian biodiversity. The loss and degradation of biodiversity has, in turn, had negative consequences for agriculture. Climate change is imposing new pressures on both agriculture and biodiversity. From a policy and management perspective, though, it is possible to envisage mitigation and adaptation responses that would alleviate pressures on all three systems (climate, agriculture, biodiversity). In this way, the paper seeks to make explicit the important connections between science and policy. The paper outlines the distinctive features of both biodiversity and agriculture in the Australian context. The discussion then addresses the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity, followed by an overview of how climate change is impacting on both of these systems. The final section of the paper offers some commentary on current policy and management strategies that are targeted at mitigating the loss of biodiversity and which may also have benefits in terms of climate change.

  12. Agricultural development in the context of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate change and continued intensification of agriculture are two "mega-trends" that will impact agricultural systems in the coming decades. While often these two trends are analyzed in isolation, recent work describes how climate change has historically offset some crop yield gains that would have otherwise occurred. Here we spatially analyze how these interactions between climate change and agricultural development may continue to 2025. We highlight areas that will be hit hardest by climate change and require aggressive management changes, as well as areas where large productivity increases are likely given current trends. To carry out our analysis we rely on a recently developed climate analog model to produce projections of climate-induced yield changes, projections of business-as-usual crop yield trends utilizing time-series data from ~13,500 agricultural census units, and published estimates of possible crop yield increases from aggressive intervention to close yield gaps. We find that a rich picture of agriculture in 2025 emerges when analyzing these multiple critical drivers. In many regions, existing yield trends or more aggressive management interventions (closing yield gaps) can overcome negative impacts from climate change. Thus, intensification can provide a buffer from near-term climate impacts, but it is unclear how long society may be able to rely on this buffering capacity.

  13. Technological Change in Uganda's Agricultural Sector Between ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The frontier is then re-modelled using binary time trend dummy variables to capture the temporal pattern of technological change. ... The findings suggest that more public and private investments in region-specific technology development would be required to accelerate technological progress especially in the northern and ...

  14. Structural change and agricultural diversification since China’s reforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Structural change is considered the major engine in fostering a country’s growth. In the agricultural sector, diversification is the commonly used development strategy to increase rural sector’s flexibility, and to respond to improving technologies and market conditions. This study examined agricultural development and transformation during China’s socio-economic reforms. In particular, it empirically investigated whether the change of China’s agricultural structure is consistent with structural change theory and observed outcomes from other countries. The degree of agricultural diversification was quantitatively measured at a regional scale using the Herfindahl index. An underdeveloped province in northwest China was studied to provide insights into the interaction among structural change, agricultural diversification, and implemented development policies. Aggregate-level analyses suggest that China’s agricultural transformation pattern is consistent with those of other developing countries. A specific provincial-level analysis shows that environmentally and economically disadvantaged regions are slower to diversify their economy than better endorsed regions.

  15. On Rural Financial and Accounting Work under the Background of Rapid Agricultural Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yaozheng; TANG

    2013-01-01

    Under the background of rapid agricultural economic development,rural financial and accounting work is of great significance. From rural accounting management system,rural accountant allocation and rural accounting training,this paper analyzes current situations of rural accounting work in China. In rural financial and accounting work,there are following problems. ( 1) Accounting behavior is not standard,and basic accounting work is to be further strengthened; ( 2) Internal control is not perfect and implementation of supervision mechanism is formalized; ( 3) Few people manipulate accounting behavior and accounting information is not transparent. In view of these problems,it puts forward countermeasures for improving rural accounting work: ( 1) establishing perfect agricultural accounting system; ( 2) regulating fund management order; ( 3) promoting computerized agricultural financial and accounting work; ( 4) improving professional and comprehensive quality of rural accountants.

  16. Public health in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I. Andreeva

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (kommersant.ru, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

  17. On Rural Financial and Accounting Work under the Background of Rapid Agricultural Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Yaozheng

    2013-01-01

    Under the background of rapid agricultural economic development, rural financial and accounting work is of great significance. From rural accounting management system, rural accountant allocation and rural accounting training, this paper analyzes current situations of rural accounting work in China. In rural financial and accounting work, there are following problems. (1) Accounting behavior is not standard, and basic accounting work is to be further strengthened; (2) Internal control is not ...

  18. A contemporary decennial global Landsat sample of changing agricultural field sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Roy, David

    2014-05-01

    historic patterns of LCLU (Albania, France and India). Landsat images sensed in two time periods, up to 25 years apart, are used to extract field object classifications at each hotspot using a multispectral image segmentation approach. The field size distributions for the two periods are compared statistically and quantify examples of significant increasing field size associated primarily with agricultural technological innovation (Argentina and U.S.) and decreasing field size associated with rapid societal changes (Albania and Zimbabwe). The implications of this research, and the potential of higher spatial resolution data from planned global coverage satellites, to provide improved agricultural monitoring are discussed.

  19. Changing World, Unchanging Accounting? Cost Systems for Hungarian Agricultural Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Zoltán Musinszki

    2011-01-01

    The literature of agricultural cost accounting has defined the definition of cost centres and cost bearers, the contents of the accounts, the procedures and methods for cost accounting and unit cost calculation without any significant changes for decades now. Do the agricultural companies set up and operate their own cost allocation and unit cost calculation systems on procedures made for state owned farms and cooperatives, or do they align their cost system with the challenges of our times? ...

  20. Technologies for climate change mitigation - Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uprety, D.C.; Dhar, S.; Hongmin, D.; Kimball, B.A.; Garg, A.; Upadhyay, J.

    2012-07-15

    This guidebook describes crop and livestock management technologies and practices that contribute to climate change mitigation while improving crop productivity, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, and lowering water consumption. It is co-authored by internationally recognised experts in the areas of crops, livestock, emissions, and economics, and we are grateful for their efforts in producing this cross disciplinary work. This publication is part of a technical guidebook series produced by the UNEP Risoe Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development (URC) as part of the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) project (http://tech-action.org) that is assisting developing countries in identifying and analysing the priority technology needs for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The TNA process involves different stakeholders in a consultative process, enabling all stakeholders to understand their technology needs in a cohesive manner, and prepare Technology Action Plans (TAPs) accordingly. The TNA project is funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and is being implemented by UNEP and the URC in 36 developing countries. (Author)

  1. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...

  2. Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2009-01-01

    The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

  3. Drought, climate change and sustainability of water in agriculture: A roadmap towards the NWRS2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel El Chami

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The frequency and intensity of drought, extreme events and high wind velocities in South Africa are expected to increase in the next century as a result of the changing climate. The National Water Resource Strategy 2 (NWRS2 has set out the general and strategic directions for water resources management in the country for the next 20 years. However, the strategy does not draw a framework tailored specifically for agricultural use, with specific measures and goals. Therefore, to reach sustainability of water in agriculture, four major strategic goals are suggested, on which research institutions can focus and promote through good governance. The strategy emphasises: (1 crop research to find new drought-and heat- tolerant and resistant breeds and varieties; (2 intensified research in agricultural practices; (3 increasing the efficiency of water use within agriculture; and (4 integrating all these strategic goals within a sustainable research framework. Finally, the research calls for rapid action and implementation.

  4. Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

  5. Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensification and environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Bryony A; Grace, Delia; Kock, Richard; Alonso, Silvia; Rushton, Jonathan; Said, Mohammed Y; McKeever, Declan; Mutua, Florence; Young, Jarrah; McDermott, John; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo

    2013-05-21

    A systematic review was conducted by a multidisciplinary team to analyze qualitatively best available scientific evidence on the effect of agricultural intensification and environmental changes on the risk of zoonoses for which there are epidemiological interactions between wildlife and livestock. The study found several examples in which agricultural intensification and/or environmental change were associated with an increased risk of zoonotic disease emergence, driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior on the environment. We conclude that the rate of future zoonotic disease emergence or reemergence will be closely linked to the evolution of the agriculture-environment nexus. However, available research inadequately addresses the complexity and interrelatedness of environmental, biological, economic, and social dimensions of zoonotic pathogen emergence, which significantly limits our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to zoonotic disease emergence.

  6. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  7. Agricultural Land Use Change after NAFTA in Central West Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quetzalcóatl Orozco-Ramírez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that agricultural land use change and modernization in agricultural production techniques are related to the loss of crop diversity. Two processes contribute to this loss; first is the replacement of landraces by modern varieties, and second is the abandonment of traditional crops in favor of cash crops. We studied the expression of these processes in a region that is both an agro-biodiversity and cultural center and one of the most significant fruit exporters of Mexico. We analyzed agricultural change based on the transformation of cropping areas and the primary crops’ locations in Michoacán state. We examined the crop-harvested area statistics from 1950 to 2015, and identified 23 crops as the most important in terms of harvested area and monetary value. After NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement, harvested area for nine crops changed significantly: seven crops increased, and two decreased. Positive trends were observed for commercial fruits oriented to export markets, and negative trends were observed for traditional crops. These crops, such as beans and maize, are important for food security. Additionally, we analyzed how these land-use and agricultural changes overlap in zones of maize planted-area change. Using a maize-race collection database, we identified three native maize races that could be at risk due to the abandonment of maize in favor of commercial crops.

  8. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...... by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices...... and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions...

  9. Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of

  10. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  11. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Its Agricultural Impacts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article presents an assessment of farmers' perceptions of climate change and its agricultural impacts in the Ethiopian portion of the Nile and Baro-Akobo river basins. A total of 500 randomly selected households were interviewed from 15 kebeles in five woredas, three each from dega, woina-dega and kolla ...

  12. A contemporary decennial global sample of changing agricultural field sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, E.; Roy, D. P.

    2011-12-01

    In the last several hundred years agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) with dramatic cropland expansion and a marked increase in agricultural productivity. The size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLUC. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, diffusion of disease pathogens and pests, and loss or degradation in buffers to nutrient, herbicide and pesticide flows. In this study, globally distributed locations with significant contemporary field size change were selected guided by a global map of agricultural yield and literature review and were selected to be representative of different driving forces of field size change (associated with technological innovation, socio-economic conditions, government policy, historic patterns of land cover land use, and environmental setting). Seasonal Landsat data acquired on a decadal basis (for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were used to extract field boundaries and the temporal changes in field size quantified and their causes discussed.

  13. Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in Western and Central Africa. ... Results show that the most prominent adaptation measures in Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Liberia were; processing of crops to reduce post-harvest losses; increased weeding; mulching; increased manure application; ...

  14. The Changing role of agriculture in Dutch society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meerburg, B.G.; Korevaar, H.; Haubenhofer, D.K.; Blom, M.; Keulen, van H.

    2009-01-01

    Dutch agriculture has undergone significant changes in the past century, similar to many countries in the European Union. Due to economies of scale and in order to remain economically profitable, it became necessary for farmers to increase farm size, efficiency and external inputs, while minimizing

  15. Agricultural land-use change and disappearance of farmlands in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The four imageries (Landsat MSS 1980, Landsat TM 1990, Landsat ETM+ 2005 and Nigeria Sat X 2012) used were classified and compared to understand the rate and extent of agricultural land-use change during the different periods. The findings revealed that the study area experienced a significant reduction in

  16. Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture and Water ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change extremes such as flooding and seasonal drought are already undermining the economies of countries in the Horn of Africa, with agriculture and water resources being the most affected sectors. Countries are drawing up national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) to serve as roadmaps for future ...

  17. Changes in African smallholder agriculture in the twentieth century ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in African smallholder agriculture in the twentieth century and the challenges of the twenty-first. ... These occurred in situations where the growing of perennial crops or access to markets encouraged people to abandon a truly shifting cultivation for a more static lifestyle. A striking feature of these developments was ...

  18. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture. Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%.

  19. Agricultural practice and social change in Berastagi area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sembiring, Sri Alem Br

    2018-03-01

    This paper discusses how agricultural practices build social change in the Berastagi highlands. Agricultural products from this area are the vegetable supplier base for Medan City and other surrounding cities. The supply involves a network of trades involving many actors with many interests, as well as generating migration from other areas around and coming from different ethnicities. The migrants’ settlements are concentrated in certain areas of the region around Berastgai. This paper will illustrate the interaction between these aspects to bring about social change in Berastagi. This research uses qualitative method. Primary data were obtained through in-depth interview techniques and participant observation. Secondary data accessed from relevant agencies. This discussion shows how the pattern of social relationships changed due to changes in the goals of agricultural practices that not only oriented local markets but also exports. Competition, secrecy, and money orientation have become part of their planting activities. On the other hand, trade networks also construct them to work together in a particular context. This paper shows that agricultural activities and all things related to it reflect a broader context to see the development of small towns that also affect the development of the surrounding villages.

  20. Vulnerability of southern plains agriculture to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is a key driver for all ecological and economic systems; therefore, climate change introduces additional uncertainty and vulnerability into these systems. Agriculture represents a major land use that is critical to the survival of human societies and it is highly vulnerable to climate. Clima...

  1. Mediterranean Agricultural Soil Conservation under global Change: The MASCC project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raclot, Damien; Ciampalini, Rossano

    2017-04-01

    The MASCC project (2016-2019, http://mascc-project.org) aims to address mitigation and adaptation strategies to global change by assessing current and future development of Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability to erosion in relation to projected land use, agricultural practices and climate change. It targets to i) assess the similarities/dissimilarities in dominant factors affecting the current Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability by exploring a wide range of Mediterranean contexts; ii) improve the ability to evaluate the impact of extreme events on both the current and projected agricultural soil vulnerability and the sediment delivery at catchment outlet; iii) evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of agricultural production to a combination of potential changes in a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, iv) and provide guidelines on sustainable agricultural conservation strategies adapted to each specific agro-ecosystem and taking into consideration both on- and off-site erosion effects and socio-economics issues. To achieve these objectives, the MASCC project consortium gather researchers from six Mediterranean countries (France, Morocco, Tunisia, Italy, Spain and Portugal) which monitor mid- to long-term environmental catchments and benefit from mutual knowledge created from previous projects and network. The major assets for MASCC are: i) the availability of an unrivalled database on catchment soil erosion and innovative agricultural practices comprising a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, ii) the capacity to better evaluate the impact of extreme events on soil erosion, iii) the expert knowledge of the LANDSOIL model, a catchment-scale integrated approach of the soil-landscape system that enables to simulate both the sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet and the intra-catchment soil evolving properties and iv) the multi-disciplinarity of the involved researchers with an international reputation in the fields of soil science

  2. Agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goetz, B.; Riss, A.; Zethner, G.

    2001-01-01

    This chapter deals with fertilization techniques, bioenergy from agriculture, environmental aspects of a common agriculture policy in the European Union, bio-agriculture, fruit farming in Austria and with environmental indicators in agriculture. In particular renewable energy sources (bio-diesel, biogas) from agriculture are studied in comparison to fossil fuels and other energy sources. (a.n.)

  3. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  4. Climate change and agriculture under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and related documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan; Angelo, Mary Jane; du Plessis, Anél

    Agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Agriculture is also among the sectors that will suffer the largest negative impacts of climate change, for which, consequently, huge adaptation efforts are needed. At the same time this sector faces the challenge of feeding a

  5. The Changing Cost of Performing Agricultural Research: An Index Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Joseph W.; Kaldor, Donald R.

    1981-01-01

    Inflation erodes the purchasing power of dollars in every budget in our society. Budgets of agricultural research organizations have been no exception. Inflation has been defined as an increase in the average of prices {I}. A popular indicator of the rate of inflation is the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (cpr) {2}, The CPI is intended to apply to consumer purchases, yet the concept implies that a similar indicator of the annual percentage change in prices of inputs purc...

  6. The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindi, Marco; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield...... and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern...

  7. CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gukurume Simbarashe

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.

  8. Are rapid changes in brain elasticity possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K. J.

    2017-09-01

    Elastography of the brain is a topic of clinical and preclinical research, motivated by the potential for viscoelastic measures of the brain to provide sensitive indicators of pathological processes, and to assist in early diagnosis. To date, studies of the normal brain and of those with confirmed neurological disorders have reported a wide range of shear stiffness and shear wave speeds, even within similar categories. A range of factors including the shear wave frequency, and the age of the individual are thought to have a possible influence. However, it may be that short term dynamics within the brain may have an influence on the measured stiffness. This hypothesis is addressed quantitatively using the framework of the microchannel flow model, which derives the tissue stiffness, complex modulus, and shear wave speed as a function of the vascular and fluid network in combination with the elastic matrix that comprise the brain. Transformation rules are applied so that any changes in the fluid channels or the elastic matrix can be mapped to changes in observed elastic properties on a macroscopic scale. The results are preliminary but demonstrate that measureable, time varying changes in brain stiffness are possible simply by accounting for vasodynamic or electrochemical changes in the state of any region of the brain. The value of this preliminary exploration is to identify possible mechanisms and order-of-magnitude changes that may be testable in vivo by specialized protocols.

  9. Climate change and its gendered impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung, P.T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies have shown that Vietnam is one of the countries that most affected by climate change because of its geographical and natural conditions together with its fast but massive and unplanned urbanization. There are many research and studies that have been conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on different sectors in Vietnam. Agriculture plays an important role in the country’s economy in terms of poverty reduction, food security, employment and export but projected to be heavily affected because of sea level rise, floods or droughts etc. A large proportion of Vietnam’s population, especially women, involves with agricultural works and production. So, this paper using a gender perspective will examine possible impacts that climate change has been causing to women and men differently in order to propose some solutions for the facing problems. Since the paper only utilizes available resources, it can serve as a concept note for further works in the future.

  10. [Rapid determination of componential contents and calorific value of selected agricultural biomass feedstocks using spectroscopic technology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheng, Kui-Chuan; Shen, Ying-Ying; Yang, Hai-Qing; Wang, Wen-Jin; Luo, Wei-Qiang

    2012-10-01

    Rapid determination of biomass feedstock properties is of value for the production of biomass densification briquetting fuel with high quality. In the present study, visible and near-infrared (Vis-NIR) spectroscopy was employed to build prediction models of componential contents, i. e. moisture, ash, volatile matter and fixed-carbon, and calorific value of three selected species of agricultural biomass feedstock, i. e. pine wood, cedar wood, and cotton stalk. The partial least squares (PLS) cross validation results showed that compared with original reflection spectra, PLS regression models developed for first derivative spectra produced higher prediction accuracy with coefficients of determination (R2) of 0.97, 0.94 and 0.90, and residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 6.57, 4.00 and 3.01 for ash, volatile matter and moisture, respectively. Good prediction accuracy was achieved with R2 of 0.85 and RPD of 2.55 for fixed carbon, and R2 of 0.87 and RPD of 2.73 for calorific value. It is concluded that the Vis-NIR spectroscopy is promising as an alternative of traditional proximate analysis for rapid determination of componential contents and calorific value of agricultural biomass feedstock

  11. Rapid mineralisation of the herbicide isoproturon in soil from a previously treated Danish agricultural field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Sebastian R; Aamand, Jens

    2003-10-01

    Mineralisation of the phenylurea herbicide isoproturon (3-(4-isopropylphenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea) and two of its known metabolites, 3-(4-isopropylphenyl)-1-methylurea (monodesmethyl-isoproturon) and 4-isopropylaniline, was studied in Danish agricultural soils with or without previous exposure to isoproturon. A potential for rapid mineralisation of isoproturon and the two metabolites was present in soils sampled from three plots within an agricultural field previously treated regularly with the herbicide, with 34-45%, 51-58% and 33-36% of the added [phenyl-U-14C]isoproturon, [phenyl-U-14C]monodesmethyl-isoproturon and [phenyl-U-14C]4-isopropylaniline metabolised to [14C]carbon dioxide within 30 days at 20 degrees C. In contrast, such extensive mineralisation of these three compounds was not observed within this period in soils sampled from two other agricultural fields without previous treatment with isoproturon. The mineralisation patterns indicated growth-linked metabolism of the three compounds in the previously exposed soils, and doubling times for [14C]carbon dioxide production ranged from 1.6 to 3.2, 1.0 to 2.1 and 1.3 to 1.7 days for isoproturon, monodesmethyl-isoproturon and 4-isopropylaniline, respectively. The ability to mineralise [phenyl-U-14C]isoproturon to [14C]carbon dioxide was successfully sub-cultured to a fresh mineral medium which provided isoproturon as sole source of carbon and nitrogen. One of the soils sampled from an agricultural field not previously treated with isoproturon showed accelerated mineralisation of [phenyl-U-14C]4-isopropylaniline toward the end of the experiment, with a doubling time for [14C]carbon dioxide production of 7.4days. This study indicates that the occurrence of rapid mineralisation of the phenyl ring of isoproturon to carbon dioxide is related to previous exposure to the herbicide, which suggests that microbial adaptation upon repeated isoproturon use may occur within agricultural fields.

  12. Social psychiatry in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas K. J. Craig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many societies around the world are experiencing a period of unprecedented change in traditional social roles and customs. Globalisation has contributed to materialism and a me-first individualism that heightens awareness of income inequality that itself is one of the most robust markers of unhappiness in society. Ever increasing urbanisation has driven an erosion of large ‘joint’ family arrangements to be replaced by smaller and relatively isolated nuclear families and single parent living. Mass migration has unmasked deep seated fear and prejudice towards the outsider in society. These global changes are fertile ground for the social conditions that have long been known to be risks for mental illness – poverty, poor quality child care, social isolation and the active discrimination and exclusion of the alien, the physically disabled and mentally ill. While there is little we can do to reverse global change, there is much a social psychiatrist can do to mitigate the effect, ensuring his/her voice is added to other calls for reducing discriminatory practice, promoting evidence-based social interventions such as parenting advice and peer support and ensuring that the success of a treatment is measured not just in terms of symptomatic improvement but in whether it results in an outcome that is valued by the patient.

  13. Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.

    2008-01-01

    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core(1). As a result of continuous satellite measurements since 1999, the core magnetic field and its recent variations can now be described with a high resolution in space and time(2). These data have...... field occurring over only a few months, indicative of fluid flow at the top of the core, can in fact be resolved. Using nine years of magnetic field data obtained by satellites as well as Earth-based observatories, we determine the temporal changes in the core magnetic field and flow in the core. We...

  14. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  15. Changes in agricultural carbon emissions and factors that influence agricultural carbon emissions based on different stages in Xinjiang, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Chuanhe; Yang, Degang; Xia, Fuqiang; Huo, Jinwei

    2016-11-10

    Xinjiang's agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., continued to rise, declined and continued to rise, during 1991-2014. The agriculture belonged to the "low emissions and high efficiency" agriculture category, with a lower agricultural carbon emission intensity. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method, agricultural carbon emissions were decomposed into an efficiency factor, a structure factor, an economy factor, and a labour factor. We divided the study period into five stages based on the changes in efficiency factor and economy factor. Xinjiang showed different agricultural carbon emission characteristics at different stages. The degree of impact on agricultural carbon emissions at these stages depended on the combined effect of planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity and agricultural labour productivity. The economy factor was the critical factor to promote the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while the main inhibiting factor for agricultural carbon emissions was the efficiency factor. The labour factor became more and more obvious in increasing agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, we discuss policy recommendations in terms of the main factors, including the development of agricultural science and technology (S&T), the establishment of three major mechanisms and transfer of rural labour in ethnic areas.

  16. Changes in agricultural carbon emissions and factors that influence agricultural carbon emissions based on different stages in Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Chuanhe; Yang, Degang; Xia, Fuqiang; Huo, Jinwei

    2016-01-01

    Xinjiang’s agricultural carbon emissions showed three stages of change, i.e., continued to rise, declined and continued to rise, during 1991–2014. The agriculture belonged to the “low emissions and high efficiency” agriculture category, with a lower agricultural carbon emission intensity. By using the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method, agricultural carbon emissions were decomposed into an efficiency factor, a structure factor, an economy factor, and a labour factor. We divided the study period into five stages based on the changes in efficiency factor and economy factor. Xinjiang showed different agricultural carbon emission characteristics at different stages. The degree of impact on agricultural carbon emissions at these stages depended on the combined effect of planting-animal husbandry carbon intensity and agricultural labour productivity. The economy factor was the critical factor to promote the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while the main inhibiting factor for agricultural carbon emissions was the efficiency factor. The labour factor became more and more obvious in increasing agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, we discuss policy recommendations in terms of the main factors, including the development of agricultural science and technology (S&T), the establishment of three major mechanisms and transfer of rural labour in ethnic areas. PMID:27830739

  17. Climate change, poverty and agricultural resource degradation: a case study of district d.g. khan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imran, M.; Bano, S.; Dawood, M.; Tarar, M.A.; Ali, A.

    2012-01-01

    Global development agendas are now being bonded with adaptation to climate change. Sustainable biodiversity and community adaptation to climate change are closely associated as depletion of natural resources adversely affects the living standard of people. Rapid climatic changes and intervention to regulate water resources in Indus delta of Pakistan have put the lives of millions of people residing near the Indus river belt at the stake of climate change. Therefore, this study was designed to inquire the socio-economic conditions of the people residing near the Indus river bank and the perceived impact of climate change on river belt agricultural resources specifically in district D. G. Khan. Based on primary data study employed univariate and bivariate analysis which suggested flood, wind storm and temperature as the significant climate change parameters affecting the land fertility, forest and fisheries. The Foster Greer and Thorbeck technique for calculating the poverty indicated that majority (82%) of population was below poverty line and most of them entirely depend on river belt agricultural resources which were found to be depleting due to rapid climate change. (author)

  18. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  19. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing ... has been extensively used to understand various system- .... states. This understanding supports the previous inter- ..... Financial support from the Ministry of Human Resource.

  20. Essays on agricultural adaptation to climate change and ethanol market integration in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisabokhae, Ruth Ada

    Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture's role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly

  1. Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Agriculture Resource Directory offers comprehensive, easy-to-understand information about environmental stewardship on farms and ranches; commonsense, flexible approaches that are both environmentally protective and agriculturally sound.

  2. Breeding to Optimize Agriculture in a Changing World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiankang Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Breeding to Optimize Chinese Agriculture (OPTICHINA was a three-year EU–China project launched in June of 2011. As designed, the project acted as a new strategic model to reinforce systematic cooperation on agricultural research between Europe and China. The OPTICHINA International Conference “Breeding to Optimize Agriculture in a Changing World” was held in Beijing, May 26–29, 2014. The conference included six thematic areas: (1 defining and protecting the yield potential of traits and genes; (2 high-throughput precision phenotyping in the field; (3 molecular technologies in modern breeding; (4 plant ideotype; (5 data analysis, data management, and bioinformatics; and (6 national challenges and opportunities for China. The 10 articles collected in this special issue represent key contributions and topics of this conference. This editorial provides a brief introduction to the OPTICHINA project, followed by the main scientific points of articles published in this special issue. Finally, outcomes from a brainstorming discussion at the end of the conference are summarized, representing the authors' opinions on trends in breeding for a changing world.

  3. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bala, B.K.; Munnaf, M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  4. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlenker, Wolfram [Department of Economics and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Lobell, David B, E-mail: dlobell@stanford.ed [Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  5. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Lobell, David B

    2010-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  6. A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capel, Paul D.; Wolock, David M.; Coupe, Richard H.; Roth, Jason L.

    2018-01-10

    Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity.The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables

  7. Estimation of soil erosion risk within an important agricultural sub-watershed in Bursa, Turkey, in relation to rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozsoy, Gokhan; Aksoy, Ertugrul

    2015-07-01

    This paper integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS model to investigate the spatial distribution of annual soil loss and identify areas of soil erosion risk in the Uluabat sub-watershed, an important agricultural site in Bursa Province, Turkey. The total soil loss from water erosion was 473,274 Mg year(-1). Accordingly, 60.3% of the surveyed area was classified into a very low erosion risk class while 25.7% was found to be in high and severe erosion risk classes. Soil loss had a close relationship with land use and topography. The most severe erosion risk typically occurs on ridges and steep slopes where agriculture, degraded forest, and shrubs are the main land uses and cover types. Another goal of this study was to use GIS to reveal the multi-year urbanization status caused by rapid urbanization that constitutes another soil erosion risk in this area. Urbanization has increased by 57.7% and the most areal change was determined in class I lands at a rate of 80% over 25 years. Urbanization was identified as one of the causes of excessive soil loss in the study area.

  8. International Survey on agriculture-climate change policy instruments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernagut, M.; Priem, M.; Sorgeloos, L.

    2011-09-15

    The title study provides an international overview of agriculture-climate change policy instruments for the reduction of methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The aim of this study is to clarify how national and/or international agriculture-climate-policies could or should be instrumented during the coming three to five years to achieve significant emission reductions of methane and nitrous oxide in the Dutch agricultural sector by 2020. The study includes an international survey, a quick-scan inventory of useful and inspiring examples of policy and reduction measures to reduce non CO2 greenhouse gases. ERM used an approach consisting out of three phases. In the first phase countries were selected on the basis of emissions and Kyoto protocol targets. In the second phase policy measures of these countries were listed, based on publicly available national and international sources. In a third phase a sub-set of this selection was analyzed in-depth through communications with local focal points and additional review of policy documents, to enhance the understanding of context, impact and results of each of these policies and measures.

  9. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  10. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, John F

    2007-12-11

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

  11. Ideological Challenges to Changing Strategic Orientation in Commodity Agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Press, Melea; Arnould, Eric; Murray, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    orientations may be thought of as ideologies; and second, that such ideologies are likely to contend with each other. Taking such a perspective may be helpful in thinking about why transitioning to more sustainable strategic orientations is challenging even in the presence of financial incentives to make......Why do some firms not change their strategic orientation despite economic incentives to do so? Most current literature on changing strategic orientations focuses on an antecedents and outcomes approach to business orientations. Intimated, but rarely addressed is, first, the idea that strategic...... such changes. In assessing the transition to organic production and marketing in a commodity agriculture context we find that contending ideologies restrict its adoption. In addition, we suggest that strategic orientations are not adopted or contested solely within firms but also among them. We find...

  12. Plastic-covered agriculture forces the regional climate to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, D.; Chen, J.; Chen, X.; Cao, X.

    2016-12-01

    The practice of plastic-covered agriculture as a solution to moderate the dilemma of global food shortage, meanwhile, brings great pressure to the local environment. This research was conducted to reveal the impacts of plastic-covered agritulture on regional climate change by experimenting in a plastic greenhouse (PG) dominated area - Weifang district, Shandong province, China. Based on a new plastic greenhouse index (PGI) proposed in this study, we reconstructed the spatial distribution of PG across 1995-2015 in the study area. With that, land surface temperature (LST) dataset combined with surface evapotranspiration, surface reflectance and precipitation data, was applied to the probe of PG's climatic impacts. Results showed that PG, in the study area, has experienced a striking spatial expansion during the past 20 years, and more important, the expansion correlated strongly to the local climate change. It showed that the annual precipitation, in the study area, decreased during these years, which constrasts to a slightly increasing trend of the adjacent districts without PG construction. In addition, resulting from the greenhouse effect, PG area presented a harsher increase of surface temperature compared to the non-PG areas. Our study also telled that the evapotranspiration of PG area has been largely cutted down ascribing to the gas tightness of plastic materials, showing a decline around 40%. This indicates a way that the development of plastic-covered agriculture may contribute to the change of the local climate.

  13. Agricultural management explains historic changes in regional soil carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wesemael, Bas; Paustian, Keith; Meersmans, Jeroen; Goidts, Esther; Barancikova, Gabriela; Easter, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks. PMID:20679194

  14. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm

  15. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent-wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  16. Climate change impacts on global agricultural land availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiao; Cai Ximing

    2011-01-01

    Climate change can affect both crop yield and the land area suitable for agriculture. This study provides a spatially explicit estimate of the impact of climate change on worldwide agricultural land availability, considering uncertainty in climate change projections and ambiguity with regard to land classification. Uncertainty in general circulation model (GCM) projections is addressed using data assembled from thirteen GCMs and two representative emission scenarios (A1B and B1 employ CO 2 -equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations of 850 and 600 ppmv, respectively; B1 represents a greener economy). Erroneous data and the uncertain nature of land classifications based on multiple indices (i.e. soil properties, land slope, temperature, and humidity) are handled with fuzzy logic modeling. It is found that the total global arable land area is likely to decrease by 0.8-1.7% under scenario A1B and increase by 2.0-4.4% under scenario B1. Regions characterized by relatively high latitudes such as Russia, China and the US may expect an increase of total arable land by 37-67%, 22-36% and 4-17%, respectively, while tropical and sub-tropical regions may suffer different levels of lost arable land. For example, South America may lose 1-21% of its arable land area, Africa 1-18%, Europe 11-17%, and India 2-4%. When considering, in addition, land used for human settlements and natural conservation, the net potential arable land may decrease even further worldwide by the end of the 21st century under both scenarios due to population growth. Regionally, it is likely that both climate change and population growth will cause reductions in arable land in Africa, South America, India and Europe. However, in Russia, China and the US, significant arable land increases may still be possible. Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent.

  17. Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

    2011-09-01

    Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and

  18. Characterizing temporal changes of agricultural particulate matter number concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Docekal, G. P.; Mahmood, R.; Larkin, G. P.; Silva, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    It is widely accepted among literature that particulate matter (PM) are of detriment to human health and the environment as a whole. These effects can vary depending on the particle size. This study examines PM size distributions and number concentrations at a poultry house. Despite much literature on PM concentrations at agricultural facilities, few studies have looked at the size distribution of particles at such facilities from the nucleation up through the coarse mode. Two optical particle counters (OPCs) were placed, one inside of a chicken house, and one on the outside of an exhaust fan to determine particle size distributions. In addition, a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) and aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) sampled poultry house particles to give sizing information from a full size range of 10 nm - 20 mm. The data collected show several different types of events where observed size distributions changed. While some of these are due to expected dust generation events producing coarse mode particles, others suggest particle nucleation and accumulation events at the smaller size ranges that also occurred. The data suggest that agricultural facilities have an impact one the presence of PM in the environment beyond just generation of coarse mode dust. Data for different types of size distribution changes observed will be discussed.

  19. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

    2014-12-01

    Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

  20. Climatic change effects on agriculture. A future scenario; Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft. Ein Zukunftsszenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Udo [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany). Abt. Agrarmeteorologie

    2014-07-01

    The contribution on the effect of the climatic change on agriculture covers the topics meteorology - agriculture, modeling of the climate, observation of projected changes - temperature, precipitation and extreme weather conditions; effects of the climatic change on selected agro-meteorological parameters in agriculture - surface temperature, shift of the growing period, corn and other energy plants for biogas production, droughts.

  1. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture: evaluation of options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolan, A.H.; Smit, B.; Skinner, M.W.; Bradshaw, B.; Bryant, C.R.

    2001-01-01

    Adaptation was defined as the responses by stakeholders to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential, or to realize opportunities associated with climate change. Planned policy initiatives representing change in the agricultural system were discussed in this report. An evaluation of adaptation options needed to be carried out before one could determine which adaptations should be promoted or implemented. The overall merit, suitability, utility or appropriateness of potential adaptation strategies or measures were examined. One interesting methodology was the Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE), which is designed to assess alternatives using more than one criterion. The criteria selected for this evaluation were: effectiveness, economic efficiency, flexibility, institutional compatibility, farmer implementation, and independent benefits. A selection of three adaptation options was made to better illustrate the utility of the evaluation framework., as follows: crop diversification, adoption of irrigation, and increase use of crop insurance. 122 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs

  2. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  3. ADAPTATION PROCESS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE- AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Mustafa

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variations affect agriculture in a process with no known end means. Adaptations help to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, adaptation has never been considered as a process. Current study empirically identified the adaptation process and its different stages. Moreover, little is known about the farm level adaptation strategies and their determinants. The study in hand found farm level adaptation strategies and determinants of these strategies. The study identified three stages of adaptation i.e. perception, intention and adaptation. It was found that 71.4% farmers perceived about climate change, 58.5% intended to adapt while 40.2% actually adapted. The study further explored that farmers do adaptations through changing crop variety (56.3%, changing planting dates (44.6%, tree plantation (37.5%, increase/conserve irrigation (39.3% and crop diversification (49.2%. The adaptation strategies used by farmers were autonomous and mostly determined perception to climate change. It was also noted that the adaptation strategies move in a circular process and once they are adapted they remained adapted for a longer period of time. Some constraints slow the adaptation process so; we recommend farmers should be given price incentives to speed-up this process.

  4. Impacts of urbanization and agricultural development on observed changes in surface air temperature over mainland China from 1961 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Songjun; Tang, Qiuhong; Xu, Di; Yang, Zhiyong

    2018-03-01

    A large proportion of meteorological stations in mainland China are located in or near either urban or agricultural lands that were established throughout the period of rapid urbanization and agricultural development (1961-2006). The extent of the impacts of urbanization and agricultural development on observed air temperature changes across different climate regions remains elusive. This study evaluates the surface air temperature trends observed by 598 meteorological stations in relation to the urbanization and agricultural development over the arid northwest, semi-arid intermediate, and humid southeast regions of mainland China based on linear regressions of temperature trends on the fractions of urban and cultivated land within a 3-km radius of the stations. In all three regions, the stations surrounded by large urban land tend to experience rapid warming, especially at minimum temperature. This dependence is particularly significant in the southeast region, which experiences the most intense urbanization. In the northwest and intermediate regions, stations surrounded by large cultivated land encounter less warming during the main growing season, especially at the maximum temperature changes. These findings suggest that the observed surface warming has been affected by urbanization and agricultural development represented by urban and cultivated land fractions around stations in with land cover changes in their proximity and should thus be considered when analyzing regional temperature changes in mainland China.

  5. RAAIS: Rapid Appraisal of Agricultural Innovation Systems (Part II). Integrated analysis of parasitic weed problems in rice in Tanzania

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schut, M.; Rodenburg, J.; Klerkx, L.W.A.; Kayeke, J.; Ast, van A.; Bastiaans, L.

    2015-01-01

    Parasitic weeds such as Striga spp and Rhamphicarpa fistulosa in smallholder rice production systems form an increasing problem for food and income security in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper we implement the Rapid Appraisal of Agricultural Innovation Systems (RAAIS) as a diagnostic tool to

  6. effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in the federal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-10-18

    Oct 18, 2012 ... The effects of the dynamics of climate on agricultural production are the thrust of this paper. Temperature .... climatic conditions that influence agricultural production in ... temperature when there are few clouds in the. FCT.

  7. Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. KETTUNEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the assessment of the economic effects of climate change, changes in returns and costs have to be taken into consideration. Changes in returns are mainly caused by changes in the yield level. Costs are determined by various factors. Harvesting conditions may improve as the temperatures are higher. However, an increasing need for disease and pest control results in higher costs. Various extensive studies have indicated that rising temperatures with the CO2 fertilizing effect increase the crop potential in Finland. From the economic point of view an increase in yield level is highly significant, because the increase in costs remains quite small. A 10% increase in the yield level raises the farm income by about 6%. Because agriculture is supported in many ways either directly or indirectly, the rise in income level may be offset by lowering the support. Consequently, farmers may not benefit from an increase in the yield level, but the benefit will go to the state economy. However, an increase in the yield level resulting from rising temperatures is advantageous to the national economy, regardless of whether the benefit goes to the farmers or to the state.;

  8. Method for producing rapid pH changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, J.H.; Campillo, A.J.; Shapiro, S.L.; Winn, K.R.

    A method of initiating a rapid pH change in a solution comprises irradiating the solution with an intense flux of electromagnetic radiation of a frequency which produces a substantial pK change to a compound in solution. To optimize the resulting pH change, the compound being irradiated in solution should have an excited state lifetime substantially longer than the time required to establish an excited state acid-base equilibrium in the solution. Desired pH changes can be accomplished in nanoseconds or less by means of picosecond pulses of laser radiation.

  9. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  10. Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santikayasa, I. P.

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

  11. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Winning; Lundgren, Julie

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with increased all-cause mortality, but weight loss may not decrease cardiovascular events. In fact, very low calorie diets have been linked to arrhythmias and sudden death. The QT interval is the standard marker for cardiac repolarization, but T-wave morphology...... analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss......A1c (pweight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization. Monitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  12. Secondary Agricultural Education Teachers as Agents of Change in Oklahoma and the Adoption of Precision Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickeson, Beth

    2013-01-01

    Research indicates that precision agricultural education (PAE) in Oklahoma affects environmental quality, water conservation, and crop yields. The purpose of this mixed methods study was to explore the nature and perceived effectiveness of PAE in Oklahoma secondary agricultural education classes. The study was framed by the diffusion of…

  13. Agricultural response functions to changes in carbon, temperature, and water based on the C3MP data set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Phillips, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Clarke, L.

    2017-12-01

    Agricultural yields vary depending on temperature, precipitation/irrigation conditions, fertilizer application, and CO2 concentration. The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), conducted as a component of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), organized a sensitivity experiments across carbon-temperature-water (CTW) space across 1100 management conditions in 50+ countries, sampling 15 crop species and 20 crop models. Such coordinated sensitivity tests allow for the building of emulators of yield response to changes in CTW values, allowing rapid estimation of yield changes from the types of climate changes projected by the climate modeling community. The resulting emulator may be used to supply agricultural responses to climate change in any user-defined scenario, rather than the restriction to the RCPs in many past works. We present the resulting emulators built from the C3MP output data set for use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model that allows for the co-evolution of socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, and agricultural sector ramifications. C3MP-based emulators may be of use in designing agricultural impact studies in other IAMs, and we place them in the context of past crop modeling efforts, including the Challinor et al. Meta-analysis, the AgMIP Wheat team results, the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) fast-track modeling results, and the MACSUR impact response surface results.

  14. A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Iago Lowe Hale; Wilfred M. Wollheim; Richard G. Smith; Heidi Asbjornsen; André F. Brito; Kirk Broders; A. Stuart Grandy; Rebecca Rowe

    2014-01-01

    Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use). The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-f...

  15. Blending satellite data and RADAR tool for rapid flood damage assessment in Agriculture: A case study in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarnath, Giriraj; Inada, Yoshiaki; Inoue, Ryosuke; Alahacoon, Niranga; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2014-05-01

    During the catastrophic flooding it is critically important to estimate losses as it is essential for facilitating good decision making at the district, province and national levels of government and to appraise aid agencies for necessary assistance. Flood loss estimates can also be used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of alternative approaches to strengthening flood control measures. In the case of Sri Lanka there were limited knowledge and application system exist for carrying out rapid damage assessment for Agriculture in Sri Lanka. FAO has developed the tool "Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine" (RADAR) based on theoretical approach that uses simple tools for assessing the impact on agriculture of a disastrous event. There are two knowledge bases that contain information needed for calculation of the value loss or damage. The procedure of rapid impact assessment implies the use of knowledge-bases, database and GIS. In this study, the user friendly application of RADAR system has been developed. Three components were considered including agriculture, livestock and farmers asset to estimate the losses. The application will allow estimating flood damage at various scales and this being tested at district level and specific example for the 2011 floods in Sri Lanka. In order to understand flood inundation cycle, time-series optical MODIS satellite data (2000-2011) and microwave ALOS PALSAR (2006-2011) were used to derive annual flood extent, flood duration and recurrent areas to identify flood risk and impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture. This study demonstrates how RADAR & satellite-based flood products can be effectively used for rapid damage assessment and managing the floods.

  16. Northern agriculture: constraints and responses to global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timo J. N. Mela

    1996-05-01

    Full Text Available In the northern circumpolar zone, the area between the 600°Cd and 1200°Cd isopleths of effective temperature sum above 5°C, the annual receipt of solar energy is limited by the low angle of radiation arriving at the earth’s surface. This is the primary cause of the climatic constraints observed in the zone, such as low temperatures, a short growing season, frosts during the growing season, long and cold winters and thick snow cover. In Finland, the length of the growing season varies from 180 days in the south (60°N to 120 days in the north (70°N. Consequently, the growing time for crops from sowing to ripening is also short, which limits their ability to produce high yields. The most advanced forms of farming in the high-latitude zone are encountered towards the south in Northern Europe, central Siberia and the prairies of Canada, i.e. mainly in the phytogeographical hemiboreal zone where the effective temperature sum is higher than 1200°Cd. Conditions for agriculture then deteriorate gradually further north with the cooling of the climate, and this is reflected as an increase in cattle rearing at the expense of grain cultivation. In northern Europe farming is practised as far north as to the Arctic Circle, at about 66°N latitude. In North America, fields extend to about 55°N, In Asia, there are few fields north of 60°N. Finland is the most northern agricultural country in the world, with all its field area, about 2.5 million hectares, located north of latitude 60°N. Changes in the climate and atmospheric CO2 predicted for the future are likely to have a strong influence, either beneficial or disadvantageous, on the conditions for growth in northern areas where the annual mean temperature is 5°C or less.

  17. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  18. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  19. Perceptual classification in a rapidly-changing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Summerfield, Christopher; Behrens, Timothy E.; Koechlin, Etienne

    2011-01-01

    Humans and monkeys can learn to classify perceptual information in a statistically optimal fashion if the functional groupings remain stable over many hundreds of trials, but little is known about categorisation when the environment changes rapidly. Here, we used a combination of computational modelling and functional neuroimaging to understand how humans classify visual stimuli drawn from categories whose mean and variance jumped unpredictably. Models based on optimal learning (Bayesian mode...

  20. Rapid emergence of pathogens in agro-ecosystems: global threats to agricultural sustainability and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Bruce A; Stukenbrock, Eva H

    2016-12-05

    Agricultural ecosystems are composed of genetically depauperate populations of crop plants grown at a high density and over large spatial scales, with the regional composition of crop species changing little from year to year. These environments are highly conducive for the emergence and dissemination of pathogens. The uniform host populations facilitate the specialization of pathogens to particular crop cultivars and allow the build-up of large population sizes. Population genetic and genomic studies have shed light on the evolutionary mechanisms underlying speciation processes, adaptive evolution and long-distance dispersal of highly damaging pathogens in agro-ecosystems. These studies document the speed with which pathogens evolve to overcome crop resistance genes and pesticides. They also show that crop pathogens can be disseminated very quickly across and among continents through human activities. In this review, we discuss how the peculiar architecture of agro-ecosystems facilitates pathogen emergence, evolution and dispersal. We present four example pathosystems that illustrate both pathogen specialization and pathogen speciation, including different time frames for emergence and different mechanisms underlying the emergence process. Lastly, we argue for a re-design of agro-ecosystems that embraces the concept of dynamic diversity to improve their resilience to pathogens. This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  1. The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahong eSun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

  2. The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.

    2016-01-01

    Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

  3. Managing health care organizations in an age of rapid change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin, S; al-Alaiwat, S

    1998-03-01

    Health care managers find their work increasingly difficult, due in part to rapid environmental change that plagues organizational life. Management practices and attitudes that may have been appropriate in previous eras are ineffective today. A study was conducted among managers in the Ministry of Health, State of Bahrain, seeking information about current trends in the macro or external environment that affect the Ministry of Health, as well as internal environmental pressures that may be similar or different. This article provides a clear picture of the context in which managers perform their work and offers recommendations for coping with change in dynamic, complex organizations.

  4. Middle Holocene rapid environmental changes and human adaptation in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lespez, Laurent; Glais, Arthur; Lopez-Saez, José-Antonio; Le Drezen, Yann; Tsirtsoni, Zoï; Davidson, Robert; Biree, Laetitia; Malamidou, Dimitra

    2016-03-01

    Numerous researchers discuss of the collapse of civilizations in response to abrupt climate change in the Mediterranean region. The period between 6500 and 5000 cal yr BP is one of the least studied episodes of rapid climate change at the end of the Late Neolithic. This period is characterized by a dramatic decline in settlement and a cultural break in the Balkans. High-resolution paleoenvironmental proxy data obtained in the Lower Angitis Valley enables an examination of the societal responses to rapid climatic change in Greece. Development of a lasting fluvio-lacustrine environment followed by enhanced fluvial activity is evident from 6000 cal yr BP. Paleoecological data show a succession of dry events at 5800-5700, 5450 and 5000-4900 cal yr BP. These events correspond to incursion of cold air masses to the eastern Mediterranean, confirming the climatic instability of the middle Holocene climate transition. Two periods with farming and pastural activities (6300-5600 and 5100-4700 cal BP) are evident. The intervening period is marked by environmental changes, but the continuous occurrence of anthropogenic taxa suggests the persistence of human activities despite the absence of archaeological evidence. The environmental factors alone were not sufficient to trigger the observed societal changes.

  5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE AGRICULTURE IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Olusegun Ajetomobi

    2011-01-01

    This study employed the Ricardian approach to test the relative importance of climate normals (average long-term temperature and precipitation in explaining net revenue from Nigerian rice agriculture under irrigation and dry land conditions.   A survey was done by interviewing 1200 rice farmers from 20 rice producing states in Nigeria. The states covered all the six geopolitical zones in the country. The results showed that increase in temperature will reduce net revenue for dry land rice farms while net revenue rises with increase in temperature for irrigated rice farms. Precipitation had similar effects on rice net revenue. Increase in precipitation will cause reduction in revenue for dry land rice farms whereas it will cause increase in revenue for irrigated farms. The results clearly demonstrate irrigation as a significant techniques used by the farmers to adapt to the climate change. Other adaptation options include Keeping of livestock, engaging in off farm works and the use of different market channels.  Â

  6. Effects of climate change on US agriculture; Les effets du changement climatique sur l'agriculture americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillet, L

    2007-08-15

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO{sub 2} levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO{sub 2} is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  7. On being a scientist in a rapidly changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, I D

    1996-02-01

    The practice of biological science has changed dramatically since mid-century, reshaped not only by a rapid series of landmark discoveries, but also by governmental directives, institutional policies, and public attitudes. Until 1964, the major influences were the mentor, who provided direction and indoctrination into the culture of science, and in dentistry, the newly established NIDR, which fueled the research engine with an expanding research and training program. The 1965-74 period witnessed the advent of the Institutional Review Board, an increased social involvement of biological scientists, and a recognition of the need for biological and physical safeguards in the conduct of research. The most turbulent years were 1975-89, when there was a confluence of animal rights activism and regulation, growing concerns with scientific fraud and publication malpractice, and the stresses and strains (and opportunities) resulting from the rapid expansion of the academic-industrial complex. The current period is characterized by rapid pace, high volume, and an increased depth and breadth of knowledge-a major change in scale in the conduct of science. It is an exciting time but one in which ethical issues are multiplying. Attention must be paid.

  8. Rapid Structural Design Change Evaluation with AN Experiment Based FEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, C.-H.; Trethewey, M. W.

    1998-04-01

    The work in this paper proposes a dynamic structural design model that can be developed in a rapid fashion. The approach endeavours to produce a simplified FEM developed in conjunction with an experimental modal database. The FEM is formulated directly from the geometry and connectivity used in an experimental modal test using beam/frame elements. The model sacrifices fine detail for a rapid development time. The FEM is updated at the element level so the dynamic response replicates the experimental results closely. The physical attributes of the model are retained, making it well suited to evaluate the effect of potential design changes. The capabilities are evaluated in a series of computational and laboratory tests. First, a study is performed with a simulated cantilever beam with a variable mass and stiffness distribution. The modal characteristics serve as the updating target with random noise added to simulate experimental uncertainty. A uniformly distributed FEM is developed and updated. The results show excellent results, all natural frequencies are within 0·001% with MAC values above 0·99. Next, the method is applied to predict the dynamic changes of a hardware portal frame structure for a radical design change. Natural frequency predictions from the original FEM differ by as much as almost 18% with reasonable MAC values. The results predicted from the updated model produce excellent results when compared to the actual hardware changes, the first five modal natural frequency difference is around 5% and the corresponding mode shapes producing MAC values above 0·98.

  9. Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

  10. How Rapid Change Affects Deltas in the Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, I.; Bendixen, M.

    2017-12-01

    Deltas form where the river drains into the ocean. Consequently, delta depositional processes are impacted by either changes in the respective river drainage basin or by changes in the regional marine environment. In a warming Arctic region rapid change has occurred over the last few decades in both the terrestrial domain as well as in the marine domain. Important terrestrial controls include 1) change in permafrost possibly destabilizing river banks, 2) strong seasonality of river discharge due to a short melting season, 3) high sediment supply if basins are extensively glaciated, 4) lake outbursts and ice jams favoring river flooding. Whereas in the Arctic marine domain sea ice loss promotes wave and storm surge impact, and increased longshore transport. We here ask which of these factors dominate any morphological change in Arctic deltas. First, we analyze hydrological data to assess change in Arctic-wide river discharge characteristics and timing, and sea ice concentration data to map changes in sea ice regime. Based on this observational analysis we set up a number of scenarios of change. We then model hypothetical small-scale delta formation considering change in these primary controls by setting up a numerical delta model, and combining it dynamically with a permafrost model. We find that for typical Greenlandic deltas changes in river forcing due to ice sheet melt dominate the morphological change, which is corroborated by mapping of delta progradation from aerial photos and satellite imagery. Whereas in other areas, along the North Slope and the Canadian Arctic small deltas are more stable or experienced retreat. Our preliminary coupled model allows us to further disentangle the impact of major forcing factors on delta evolution in high-latitude systems.

  11. The economic impacts of climate change on the Chilean agricultural sector: A non-linear agricultural supply model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Ponce

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades, with impacts threatening agricultural production in general and food security in particular. Within this context, climate change will impose a challenge to policy makers, especially in those countries that based their development on primary sectors. In this paper we present a non-linear agricultural supply model for the analysis of the economic impacts of changes in crop yields due to climate change. The model accounts for uncertainty through the use of Monte Carlo simulations about crop yields. According to our results, climate change impacts on the Chilean agricultural sector are widespread, with considerable distributional consequences across regions, and with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In general, the results reported here are consistent with those reported by previous studies showing large economic impacts on the northern zone. However, our model does not simulate remarkable economic consequences at the country level as previous studies did.

  12. Unravelling institutional determinants affecting change in agriculture in West Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struik, P.C.; Klerkx, L.W.A.; Hounkonnou, D.

    2014-01-01

    This paper compares lessons learned from nine studies that explored institutional determinants of innovation towards sustainable intensification of West African agriculture. The studies investigated issues relating to crop, animal, and resources management in Benin, Ghana, and Mali. The constraints

  13. The contribution of human agricultural activities to increasing evapotranspiration is significantly greater than climate change effect over Heihe agricultural region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Minzhong; Niu, Jun; Kang, Shaozhong; Li, Xiaolin; Lu, Hongna

    2017-08-18

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles. Understanding changes in ET and the relative contribution rates of human activity and of climate change at the basin scale is important for sound water resources management. In this study, changes in ET in the Heihe agricultural region in northwest China during 1984-2014 were examined using remotely-sensed ET data with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Correlation analysis identified the dominant factors that influence change in ET per unit area and those that influence change in total ET. Factor analysis identified the relative contribution rates of the dominant factors in each case. The results show that human activity, which includes factors for agronomy and irrigation, and climate change, including factors for precipitation and relative humidity, both contribute to increases in ET per unit area at rates of 60.93% and 28.01%, respectively. Human activity, including the same factors, and climate change, including factors for relative humidity and wind speed, contribute to increases in total ET at rates of 53.86% and 35.68%, respectively. Overall, in the Heihe agricultural region, the contribution of human agricultural activities to increased ET was significantly greater than that of climate change.

  14. Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. A. Laken

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR flux on Earth's climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT reanalysis data. A General Circulation Model (GCM experiment is used to test the causal relationship of the observed cloud changes to the detected SLAT anomalies. Results indicate that the anomalous cloud changes were responsible for producing the observed SLAT changes, implying that if there is a causal relationship between significant decreases in the rate of GCR flux (~0.79 GU, where GU denotes a change of 1% of the 11-year solar cycle amplitude in four days and decreases in cloud cover (~1.9 CU, where CU denotes a change of 1% cloud cover in four days, an increase in SLAT (~0.05 KU, where KU denotes a temperature change of 1 K in four days can be expected. The influence of GCRs is clearly distinguishable from changes in solar irradiance and the interplanetary magnetic field. However, the results of the GCM experiment are found to be somewhat limited by the ability of the model to successfully reproduce observed cloud cover. These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

  15. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  16. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human and institutional

  17. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human

  18. Pollinator declines. Extinctions of aculeate pollinators in Britain and the role of large-scale agricultural changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollerton, Jeff; Erenler, Hilary; Edwards, Mike; Crockett, Robin

    2014-12-12

    Pollinators are fundamental to maintaining both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, but habitat destruction, loss of flower resources, and increased use of pesticides are causing declines in their abundance and diversity. Using historical records, we assessed the rate of extinction of bee and flower-visiting wasp species in Britain from the mid-19th century to the present. The most rapid phase of extinction appears to be related to changes in agricultural policy and practice beginning in the 1920s, before the agricultural intensification prompted by the Second World War, often cited as the most important driver of biodiversity loss in Britain. Slowing of the extinction rate from the 1960s onward may be due to prior loss of the most sensitive species and/or effective conservation programs. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  19. Cytogenetic changes induced by aqueous ferrofluids in agricultural plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Racuciu, Mihaela [Faculty of Sciences, Lucian Blaga University, 10 Blvd. Victoriei, Sibiu 550012 (Romania)]. E-mail: mracuciu@yahoo.com; Creanga, Dorina [Faculty of Physics, Al. I. Cuza University, 11A Blvd.Copou, Iasi 700506 (Romania)

    2007-04-15

    In this paper, the authors present their results regarding the cellular division rate and the percentage of chromosomal aberrations in the root meristematic cells of agricultural plants when cultivated in the presence of different concentrations of aqueous ferrofluid, ranging between 10 and 250 {mu}L/L. The agricultural species (Zea mays) with a major role in the life of people was chosen for the experimental project. The water-based ferrofluid was prepared following the chemical co-precipitation method, using tetramethylammonium hydroxide as magnetite core stabilizer. Microscopic investigations (cytogenetic tests) resulted in the evaluation of the mitotic and chromosomal aberration index. They appeared to increase following ferrofluid addition.

  20. Climate change and agricultural development: adapting Polish agriculture to reduce future nutrient loads in a coastal watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Giełczewski, Marek; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2014-09-01

    Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO3 and P-PO4 loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO4 loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO3 loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.

  1. Agricultural Management and Climatic Change Are the Major Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the UK.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiona Burns

    Full Text Available Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species' populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species' populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species' population change (~1970-2012 has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates. In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs.

  2. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  3. Modelling of Efficiency Change as a Source of Economic Growth in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezat-Jarzębowska Agnieszka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the subject of economic growth in agriculture was raised. One of the determinants of this process, namely an efficiency change was under the assessment. The aim of the paper was to evaluate the changes of efficiency in the Polish agriculture. In the study, a stochastic parametric production function was used.

  4. Analysis of future agricultural change : a farm economics approach applied to Dutch arable farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wossink, A.

    1993-01-01

    This study of agricultural change deals simultaneously with: (a) farm planning, ie. the constant adaptation to changing circumstances at the level of the individual farm firm and (b) conditional forecasting, ie. the analysis of alternative agricultural and environmental policy views and

  5. Climate change and development responses on agriculture in Quang Nam Province Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroll, Henning; Andersen, Jan; Lund, Søren

    2011-01-01

    to document the influence of climate change on the agriculture of Quang Nam. Administratively, agriculture in Quang Nam includes the three sectors: farming, forestry and aquaculture. From interviews we found that many Vietnamese authorities and farmers were convinced that today climate changes impact farming......, forestry and aquaculture and consequently different kinds of adaptations have been introduced. We wanted to study the development in agriculture in order to scrutinize if climate events had major impacts on productivity of the three sectors. An overview of agricultural changes was provided through...... statistics and interviews and important climate impacts and adaptations were identified and assessed. An energy flow method was used to describe the agricultural situation. During the last decade the study showed that farmers in the agricultural field had increased the productivity and they performed strong...

  6. Climate change and agricultural water demand: Impacts and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    and loss of biodiversity may reduce the natural control of agricultural pests. .... and that released at head - works, which includes field canal efficiency .... Barley. 1180. 248.1. 177.3. 68.5. 0.1. Vetch. 89. 1727.5. 1297.6. 1186.5. 0.1. Alfalfa. 820.

  7. Farmers, institutions and technology in agricultural change processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flor, Rica Joy; Singleton, Grant; Casimero, Madonna; Abidin, Zainal; Razak, Nasruddin; Maat, Harro; Leeuwis, Cees

    2016-01-01

    International agricultural research centres use approaches which aim to create effective linkages between the practices of farmers, introduced technologies and the wider environment that affects farming. This paper argues that such new approaches require a different type of monitoring as a

  8. Evolution of Organic Agriculture within Theoretical Frameworks of Structural Change and Transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Ole Horn

    with the idea of organic agriculture, agricultural structural change and transformation. However, the search for an answer to the research question starts with a contribution with a fragmentary status. Marshall and the theory of externalities present a deepen of the Danish agricultural economists...... it is possibly to draw a link to our initially discussion about definition of organic agriculture. The principles between conventional and organic agriculture differ. We have two kinds of rationalities. Exactly such approach is the methodological hard core in the works of Chayanov and we link to a tentative...... suggestion for working towards, as a minimum, a double definition of organic agriculture. The last "agricultural economist" is Hvelplund. Despite his position as a researcher within energy, we have different arguments for our presentation of him here. The first argument is that Hvelplund is occupied...

  9. Having it both ways? Land use change in a U.S. midwestern agricultural ecoregion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auch, Roger F.; Laingen, Chris R.

    2015-01-01

    Urbanization has been directly linked to decreases in area of agricultural lands and, as such, has been considered a threat to food security. Although the area of land used to produce food has diminished, often overlooked have been changes in agricultural output. The Eastern Corn Belt Plains (ECBP) is an important agricultural region in the U.S. Midwest. It has both gained a significant amount of urban land, primarily from the conversion of agricultural land between 1973 and 2000, and at the same time continued to produce ever-increasing quantities of agricultural products. By 2002, more corn, soybeans, and hogs were produced on a smaller agricultural land base than in 1974. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, ECBP ecoregion society appeared to have “had it both ways”: more urbanization along with increased agricultural output.

  10. FOOD SECURITY AND UNIVERSITY AGRICULTURAL STUDENTS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    OGA AMOLEGBE

    Food security and its relationship to sustainable agricultural and rural development have ... JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN FORESTRY, WILDLIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL VOLUME 6, No. ... environmental degradation, rapid changes in.

  11. Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Q.; Wu, W.; Liu, Z.; Verburg, P.H.; Xia, T.; Yang, P.; Lu, Z.; You, L.; Tang, H.

    2014-01-01

    Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change)

  12. Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2016-03-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

  13. Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honan, Meg

    2015-01-01

    Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

  14. Agricultural land cover changes in metropolitan areas of Poland for the period 1990–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nalej Marta

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural land covers more than half the area of metropolitan areas in Poland, and is therefore particularly prone to the influences of the processes associated with their development. The aim of the study was to analyse changes in agricultural land cover within the metropolitan areas of Poland for the years 1990–2012; and to capture their dynamics, types and directions. The percentage share of the total study area, for each of the forms of agricultural land cover and their changes were traced, with the spatial distribution of the changes also being determined. The results of the study show that in metropolitan areas, agricultural land cover is undergoing transformations that do not result in the loss of agricultural lands, or that involve a decrease in surface area due to their change into anthropogenic forms of land cover. The greatest transitions occurred between 2000 and 2006 and were observed in the outer zones of metropolitan areas.

  15. Water and agriculture: a relationship that must change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farina, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    In the ranking of the first ten global risks in terms of impact analyzed by the Global Risks Report 2015 of the World Economic Forum, the 'crisis of water' is in the first place as intensity of impact: this is understandable because of the water depend not only a large part of life on Earth, but also many of economic activities. For this reason it is essential to protect it and use it in a way that is ever more efficient and sustainable. ENEA is promoting, together with other European research institutions, a model of integration between the treated wastewater urban and agricultural world that allows, on the one hand to make them reusable in agriculture for plant growth that will be used for food and non-food production, forage and agricultural uses, on the other hand to place an e cosystem service , i.e. an additional water finishing before it is released into the environment or used for natural groundwater recharge. [it

  16. Rapid landscape change in 6th century northern Jordan: interdisciplinary geoarchaeological perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucke, Bernhard

    2016-04-01

    Landscapes of the ancient fertile crescent are considered affected by soil degradation as result of long-term farming since the Neolithic, and impressive ruins of antiquity led to assumptions that their abandonment must have been conntected with reduced agricultural productivity. In this context, a valley fill near the site of Abila of the Decapolis in northern Jordan was apparently deposited largely during the 6th century AD, and provides evidence for a rapid and intense landscape change during the Late Byzantine period. However, an interdisciplinary case study of land use, soil development, and sediments found that the valley fill cannot be connected with large-scale soil erosion in the vicinity of the site. On the one hand, this is indicated by the distribution of soil development and archaeological material as marker of past land use activity in the past, which suggests that the best soils were and still are used intensively. On the other hand, the sediments seem to point to the occurrence of climatic extremes such as heavy floods, the occurrence of soil creep after water saturation, but also a significant shift to aridity which may have triggered socio-economic changes of subsistence strategies from agriculture to pastoralism. The dates of sediments which are available so far indicate that the climatic change seemingly occurred rapidly within approximately 100 years during the late 6th and early 7th century AD, possibly connected with the "year without sun" or 'Mystery Veil' which the Byzantine historian Procopius described in the year 536 AD. Modern analogies of the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 let it seem possible that a volcanic event, perhaps the outbreak of the Ilopango volcano, was connected with these environmental turbulences. Such events cannot be understood by isolated studies: without a broad interdisciplinary framework, single archives are prone to misinterpretation, and our understanding of the environmental history of Abila is still very limited.

  17. Development of a technique of the rapid analysis for forecasting of possible radionuclides accumulation in the harvest of agricultural crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadgarov, Kh.T.; Pugachev, V.V.; Kim, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    experimental received data is received. Thus, at pollution of croplands by strontium - 90 the above described method allows with sufficient for practical purposes accuracy to determine the level of pollution of agricultural crops in various soil - climatic zones and in due time to carry out practical actions on decrease of level radionuclides contamination in production of plant cultivation. To determine the level of pollution by strontium - 90 of harvest of agriculture crops it is possible also using coefficient of transition (Ct). Coefficient of transition is the relation of the contents of radionuclide in a harvest to its contents in young plants. Strontium - 90 as long-lived radionuclide, represents the big danger for living organisms. This circumstance obliges to result in methodical instructions not only arithmetic-mean value of coefficient of transition and its error, but also a possible interval of its variation with 99 % a level of probability and at calculation of a probable level of radionuclide accumulation in a harvest, obviously, it is more preferable to apply the top limit of this interval. Thus, certainly, in many cases the valid contents of strontium - 90 in production of plants cultivation will be a little bit lower than design value, but also safety of planning of given production for the food or fodder purposes substantially will be raised. Application of the given method for short-lived radionuclides senselessly by definition, therefore we investigated another long-lived radionuclide caesium - 137. At forecasting of possible accumulation of given nuclide in a harvest and in young plants of one more coefficient - coefficient of accumulation (Ca) was applied. The coefficient of accumulation (Ca) represents the relation of the content of radionuclide in a mass unit of vegetative production to its contents in a mass unit of ground. Coefficient of accumulation in plants for various soil - climatic zones changes over a wide range depending on properties of soils

  18. Modeling technical change in climate analysis: evidence from agricultural crop damages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

    2017-05-01

    This study accounts for the Hicks neutral technical change in a calibrated model of climate analysis, to identify the optimum level of technical change for addressing climate changes. It demonstrates the reduction to crop damages, the costs to technical change, and the net gains for the adoption of technical change for a climate-sensitive Pakistan economy. The calibrated model assesses the net gains of technical change for the overall economy and at the agriculture-specific level. The study finds that the gains of technical change are overwhelmingly higher than the costs across the agriculture subsectors. The gains and costs following technical change differ substantially for different crops. More importantly, the study finds a cost-effective optimal level of technical change that potentially reduces crop damages to a minimum possible level. The study therefore contends that the climate policy for Pakistan should consider the role of technical change in addressing climate impacts on the agriculture sector.

  19. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  20. Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Zhai, Fan; Zhuang, Juzhong

    2009-01-01

    Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate. However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultura...

  1. Changing agricultural practices: Potential consequences to aquatic organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasier, Peter J.; Urich, Matthew L.; Hassan, Sayed M.; Jacobs, Whitney N.; Bringolf, Robert B.; Owens, Kathleen M.

    2016-01-01

    Agricultural practices pose threats to biotic diversity in freshwater systems with increasing use of glyphosate-based herbicides for weed control and animal waste for soil amendment becoming common in many regions. Over the past two decades, these particular agricultural trends have corresponded with marked declines in populations of fish and mussel species in the Upper Conasauga River watershed in Georgia/Tennessee, USA. To investigate the potential role of agriculture in the population declines, surface waters and sediments throughout the basin were tested for toxicity and analyzed for glyphosate, metals, nutrients, and steroid hormones. Assessments of chronic toxicity with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca indicated that few water or sediment samples were harmful and metal concentrations were generally below impairment levels. Glyphosate was not observed in surface waters, although its primary degradation product, aminomethyl phosphonic acid (AMPA), was detected in 77% of the samples (mean = 509 μg/L, n = 99) and one or both compounds were measured in most sediment samples. Waterborne AMPA concentrations supported an inference that surfactants associated with glyphosate may be present at levels sufficient to affect early life stages of mussels. Nutrient enrichment of surface waters was widespread with nitrate (mean = 0.7 mg NO3-N/L, n = 179) and phosphorus (mean = 275 μg/L, n = 179) exceeding levels associated with eutrophication. Hormone concentrations in sediments were often above those shown to cause endocrine disruption in fish and appear to reflect the widespread application of poultry litter and manure. Observed species declines may be at least partially due to hormones, although excess nutrients and herbicide surfactants may also be implicated.

  2. Adaptation resources for agriculture: Responding to climate variability and change in the midwest and northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria K. Janowiak; Daniel D. Dostie; Michael A. Wilson; Michael J. Kucera; R. Howard Skinner; Jerry L. Hatfield; David Hollinger; Christopher W. Swanston

    2016-01-01

    Changes in climate and extreme weather are already increasing challenges for agriculture nationally and globally, and many of these impacts will continue into the future. This technical bulletin contains information and resources designed to help agricultural producers, service providers, and educators in the Midwest and Northeast regions of the United States integrate...

  3. North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiang, Zhang; Lanying, Han; Jingjing, Lin; Qingyan, Cheng

    2018-01-01

    One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes.

  4. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change and extremes on soil erosion in agricultural landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preservation of top soil is critical for the long term sustainability of agricultural productivity, food security, and biodiversity. However, today’s growing population and increasing demand for food and fiber is stressing the agricultural soil and water resources. Climate change imposes additional ...

  5. Altering plasma sodium concentration rapidly changes blood pressure during haemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suckling, Rebecca J; Swift, Pauline A; He, Feng J; Markandu, Nirmala D; MacGregor, Graham A

    2013-08-01

    Plasma sodium is increased following each meal containing salt. There is an increasing interest in the effects of plasma sodium concentration, and it has been suggested that it may have direct effects on blood pressure (BP) and possibly influences endothelial function. Experimental increases of plasma sodium concentration rapidly raise BP even when extracellular volume falls. Ten patients with end-stage renal failure established on haemodialysis were studied during the first 2 h of dialysis without fluid removal during this period. They were randomized to receive haemodialysis with (i) dialysate sodium concentration prescribed to 135 mmol/L and (ii) 145 mmol/L in random order in a prospective, single-blinded crossover study. BP measurements and blood samples were taken every 30 min. Pre-dialysis sitting BP was 137/76 ± 7/3 mmHg. Lower dialysate sodium concentration (135 mmol/L) reduced plasma sodium concentration [139.49 ± 0.67 to 135.94 ± 0.52 mmol/L (P area under the curve (AUC) 15823.50 ± 777.15 (mmHg)min] compared with 145 mmol/L [AUC 17018.20 ± 1102.17 (mmHg)min], mean difference 1194.70 ± 488.41 (mmHg)min, P < 0.05. There was a significant positive relationship between change in plasma sodium concentration and change in systolic BP. This direct relationship suggests that a fall of 1 mmol/L in plasma sodium concentration would be associated with a 1.7 mmHg reduction in systolic BP (P < 0.05). The potential mechanism for the increase in BP seen with salt intake may be through small but significant changes in plasma sodium concentration.

  6. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  7. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  8. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

  9. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leclère, D; Havlík, P; Mosnier, A; Walsh, B; Valin, H; Khabarov, N; Obersteiner, M; Fuss, S; Schmid, E; Herrero, M

    2014-01-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis. (letter)

  10. Planetary Habitability and Rapid Environmental Change: The Biological Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze-Makuch, D.; Fairen, A.; Irwin, L.

    2012-12-01

    Environmental conditions can change drastically and rapidly during the natural history of a planetary body. We have detailed evidence of these dramatic events from Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. Most of these occurrences seem to be triggered by astronomical events such as asteroid impacts or supernova explosions; others are triggered by the planet or moon itself (e.g., supervolcano eruptions). The associated question is always how these events affect the habitability of a planet, particularly the origin and presence of life. Under what conditions would such a drastic event be so catastrophic that it would prohibit the origin of life or be so devastating to existing organisms, that life would not be able to recover and be all but extinguished from a planet? Under what conditions would such an event be positive for the evolution of life, for example spurring life via mass extinctions and associated vacant habitats to the invention of new body plans and higher complexity? Here, we provide insights of what we can learn from the natural history of our own planet, which experienced many environmental disasters and abrupt climate changes, from the impact event that created the Moon to the extinction of the dinosaurs. We apply these insights to other planetary bodies and the question about the presence of life. One example is Mars, which underwent drastic environmental changes at the end of the Noachian period. Assuming that microbial life became established on Mars, could it have survived, perhaps by retreating to environmental niches? Life just starting out would have certainly been more vulnerable to extinction. But how far would it have to have evolved to be more resistant to potential extinction events? Would it have to be global in distribution to survive? Another example is Venus. Should Venus be seen as an example where life, which possibly arose in the first few hundred million years when the planet was still in the habitable zone, would have had no chance to

  11. DETERMINANTS OF CHANGES IN WORK PROFITABILITY IN POLISH AGRICULTURE IN 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew GOLAS

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this work is to analyse the changes in work profitability in Polish agriculture. The analysis is based on the Economic Accounts for Agriculture, i.e. the applicable in the EU harmonised financial statement, which enables the analysis of the economic situation in agriculture according to uniform rules. The basis for the research have been the proposed systems of work profitability indicators and factor analysis (the logarithm method. The research has proven that in the post-accession period work profitability in agriculture increased in real terms on annual average by about 4,47%, and in 2013 in comparison to 2004, work profitability was higher in real terms by almost 60%. In the light of the factor analysis the main determinant of changes in work profitability in the domestic agriculture was the increase in work productivity and production subsidies.

  12. DETERMINANTS OF WORK PROFABILITY CHANGES IN POLISH AGRICULTURE IN YEARS 2004-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Gołaś

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of the work is to analyse the changes in the work profitability of Polish agriculture. The analysis was based on the Economic Accounts for Agriculture, i.e. the current EU harmonized financial statements allowing for analysis of the economic situation in agriculture according to uniform principles. The basis of the research was formed by proposed indicator systems operating profitability and factor analysis (method logarithm. Studies have shown that in the post-accession period, the profitability in agriculture was increasing in real terms on average by 4.47%, and in 2013 in relation to 2004, the level of profitability of labour was higher in real terms by almost 60%. In the light of the factor analysis, as the main determinants of changes in operating profitability in the domestic agriculture, the increase in labour productivity and production subsidies will be indicated.

  13. CAPACITY BUILDING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: MODULES FOR AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION CURRICULUM DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.O. Ogunbameru

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Basically, climate change refers to any change in climate overtime, generally caused by natural variability and/or human activities. It has great devastating impact, particularly on agriculture and by extrapolation on farmers and the national economy. The frontline agricultural extension workers are expected to be among the principal stakeholders to teach farmers how to cope with climate change. Consequently, there is a need to develop appropriate teaching package for the training of the frontline agricultural extension workers, based on the myriad of adaptation strategies and practices available in the literature. This paper synthesizes the rationale for capacity building in climate change and the adaptation or coping strategies. The modules (train-the-trainer for teaching agricultural extension workers and farmers are documented in the paper.

  14. An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Macedonian Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan Hristov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a mixed input–output model, this study examines potential changes in sector output and water requirements in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the effects on the economy were quantified. The results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario due to moderate changes in precipitation and temperature and longer cropping period, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. Contrary, the medium and high climate change scenarios would negatively affect agriculture due to increase in temperature and decline in precipitation, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. As a result, water consumption by agriculture sector will increase by around 6% in the low climate change scenario, and decrease by around 8% and 16% in the medium and high climate change scenarios, respectively, relative to the current agriculture water consumption. Capital investment in irrigation equipment could mitigate the negative climate change impacts in the medium and high climate change scenarios. However, it would impose additional stresses on the existing limited water resource over time.

  15. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Morton, John F.

    2007-01-01

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as “subsistence” or “smallholder” farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised d...

  16. Analysis of future agricultural change : a farm economics approach applied to Dutch arable farming

    OpenAIRE

    Wossink, A.

    1993-01-01

    This study of agricultural change deals simultaneously with: (a) farm planning, ie. the constant adaptation to changing circumstances at the level of the individual farm firm and (b) conditional forecasting, ie. the analysis of alternative agricultural and environmental policy views and their impact.

    Chapter I gives a general introduction and sets out the objectives and scope of the study. The specific research objectives were: (1) to develop a model syst...

  17. Policy Responses to Changing Perceptions of the Role of Agriculture in Development

    OpenAIRE

    Kym Anderson

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally, development economists had a dim view of the contribution that farmers made to modern economic growth, compared with manufacturers. Hence agricultural exports and manufacturing imports were often taxed. This view changed over time though, as first economists and then policy makers came to understand the high cost of an anti-agricultural, import-substituting industrialization strategy. This paper outlines how this change came about and the resulting economic policy reforms that ...

  18. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

  19. Impact of projected climate change on agricultural production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The climate change projections data from global climate models were downscaled using self-organising maps technique. Under the conventional practices, results show that during long rainy season (from March to May) there is yield decline of 13% for cultivar Situka, no change for cultivar Kito and increase of 10% and ...

  20. Risk of Agricultural Practices and Habitat Change to Farmland Birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Anthony. Kirk

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Many common bird species have declined as a result of agricultural intensification and this could be mitigated by organic farming. We paired sites for habitat and geographical location on organic and nonorganic farms in Ontario, Canada to test a priori predictions of effects on birds overall, 9 guilds and 22 species in relation to candidate models for farming practices (13 variables, local habitat features (12 variables, or habitat features that influence susceptibility to predation. We found that: (1 Overall bird abundance, but not richness, was significantly (p < 0.05 higher on organic sites (mean 43.1 individuals per site than nonorganic sites (35.8 individuals per site. Significantly more species of birds were observed for five guilds, including primary grassland birds, on organic vs. nonorganic sites. No guild had higher richness or abundance on nonorganic farms; (2 Farming practice models were the best (Î"AIC < 4 for abundance of birds overall, primary grassland bird richness, sallier aerial insectivore richness and abundance, and abundance of ground nesters; (3 Habitat models were the best for overall richness, Neotropical migrant abundance, richness and abundance of Ontario-USA-Mexico (short-distance migrants and resident richness; (4 Predation models were the best for richness of secondary grassland birds and ground feeders; (5 A combination of variables from the model types were best for richness or abundance overall, 13 of 18 guilds (richness and abundance and 16 of 22 species analyzed. Five of 10 farming practice variables (including herbicide use, organic farm type and 9 of 13 habitat variables (including hedgerow length, proportion of hay were significant in best models. Risk modeling indicated that herbicide use could decrease primary grassland birds by one species (35% decline from 3.4 to 2.3 species per site. Organic farming could benefit species of conservation concern by 49% (an increase from 7.6 to 11.4 grassland birds. An

  1. Geographical view on agricultural land and structural changes plant production Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Rajović

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE This paper analyzes agricultural land and structural changes in plant production Montenegro. The Montenegro represents a significant potential for agricultural development, but plant production insufficiently developed in relation to natural resources and the demands of intensive agricultural production. Average possession by agricultural holdings in 1960 amounts is 5.34 ha with only 2.05 ha arable area per agricultural holdings. Yet more unfavorable is the situation with arable surfaces. Namely, agricultural holdings in the Montenegro in 1960 are on average dispose with maximum of 0.74 ha of arable land. Judging by the size of the cultivated area, production volume, as well as according other parameters, plant production in the Montenegro in 2007, mainly used for meeting need households. A smaller area for is market. The role of the Montenegrin village and agriculture must be first-rate, as are its potentials, the main power future development of Montenegro. This requires radically new relationship between society and science to agriculture and the countryside. Instead of the existing approach in which they observed the preventive as producers of cheap food has to be developed a new concept, a comprehensive agricultural and rural development, which will be based on demographic, natural, economic and socio-cultural potential of Montenegro. 

  2. Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

    2016-03-01

    Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to

  3. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  4. Innovation in regulation of rapidly changing health markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, Gerald; Henson, Spencer; Peters, David H

    2014-06-24

    The rapid evolution and spread of health markets across low and middle-income countries (LMICs) has contributed to a significant increase in the availability of health-related goods and services around the world. The support institutions needed to regulate these markets have lagged behind, with regulatory systems that are weak and under-resourced. This paper explores the key issues associated with regulation of health markets in LMICs, and the different goals of regulation, namely quality and safety of care, value for money, social agreement over fair access and financing, and accountability. Licensing, price controls, and other traditional approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services have played an important role, but they have been of questionable effectiveness in ensuring safety and efficacy at the point of the user in LMICs. The paper proposes a health market systems conceptual framework, using the value chain for the production, distribution and retail of health goods and services, to examine regulation of health markets in the LMIC context. We conclude by exploring the changing context going forwards, laying out implications for future heath market regulation. We argue that the case for new approaches to the regulation of markets for health products and services in LMICs is compelling. Although traditional "command and control" approaches will have a place in the toolkit of regulators, a broader bundle of approaches is needed that is adapted to the national and market-level context of particular LMICs. The implication is that it is not possible to apply standard or single interventions across countries, as approaches proven to work well in one context will not necessarily work well elsewhere.

  5. Sources of heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils of a rapidly industrializing area in the Yangtze Delta of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xianghua; Zhao, Yongcun; Zhao, Xiaoyan; Wang, Yudong; Deng, Wenjing

    2014-10-01

    The rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries have increased pollution by heavy metals, which is a concern for human health and the environment. In this study, 230 surface soil samples (0-20cm) were collected from agricultural areas of Jiaxing, a rapidly industrializing area in the Yangtze Delta of China. Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) and multivariate factorial kriging analysis (FKA) were used to identify and explore the sources of heavy metal pollution for eight metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cd, Hg and As). Localized hot-spots of pollution were identified for Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd with area percentages of 0.48 percent, 0.58 percent, 2.84 percent, 2.41 percent, 0.74 percent, and 0.68 percent, respectively. The areas with Hg pollution covered approximately 38 percent whereas no potential pollution risk was found for As. The soil parent material and point sources of pollution had significant influences on Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd levels, except for the influence of agricultural management practices also accounted for micro-scale variations (nugget effect) for Cu and Zn pollution. Short-range (4km) diffusion processes had a significant influence on Cu levels, although they did not appear to be the dominant sources of Zn and Cd variation. The short-range diffusion pollution arising from current and historic industrial emissions and urbanization, and long-range (33km) variations in soil parent materials and/or diffusion jointly determined the current concentrations of soil Pb. The sources of Hg pollution risk may be attributed to the atmosphere deposition of industrial emission and historical use of Hg-containing pesticides. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Progress in rapid detection and identification of unknown human and agricultural pathogens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, T; Holzrichter, J F; Milanovich, F P

    1999-01-01

    The medical industry is driving pathogen detection technology from its present characteristics of$50/sample, 100 sample capability systems, with several day time responses, having several percent error rates in reported outcomes. The systems described above are capable of providing samples at and lt;$5/test, managing several million samples, and lt; 1-hour cycle times, (or just minutes in some cases) and and lt; 0.1% error rates. Because of their importance to the medical and agricultural communities, all ''important'' pathogens will have detection kits available (within air transport times, anywhere in the world) by 2020, and the most well known pathogens will have kits available within a few years. Many are available now. Because of the importance of the food supply to modern nations, these technologies will be employed everywhere in this industry. For example, the United States imports 30 B tons of food a year, but inspects and lt; 1%. Portable inspection systems will make it possible to test for dangerous pathogens in feed lots, food processing plants, markets, and points of use. Outbreaks of animal or plant disease will be immediately detectable using field instrumentation, and more complex samples can be sent to central testing laboratories where more sophisticated test systems will be available. Unusual pathogens either naturally or purposefully selected or developed, will require special attention because there is not a commercial economic driver for the development of detection systems and curative agents. Their development, and production for sufficient availability, will require significant investments by the world community. The strategy and costs for developing vaccines or curative drugs will be very expensive and will need special attention. However it is important that attention be directed to these problems because such attention has a strong deterrent effect on potential developers or users. The capacity to use the full information content

  7. To assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated into geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponti, L.; Iannetta, M.; Gutierrez, A.P.

    2015-01-01

    The transfer of ENEA PBDM (physiologically based demographic models) GIS technology, represents an opportunity to address global change in agriculture on an ecological basis in a local context, be able to provide European governmental agencies the necessary scientific basis for developing effective policies for adaptation to global change, including climate change [it

  8. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

  9. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

    2011-10-15

    Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

  10. Changes of the agricultural enterprises economic environment originated by the agribusiness development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Věra Bečvářová

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Based upon analyses of the Common Agricultural Policy development and its economic tools reforming the process of changing is characterised there. It deals with the multifunctionality of agriculture as well as the influence of the CAP on environment of the production tasks of agriculture and food processing industry accomplishment. Paper generalises results of new trends of the agribusiness economic environment development and the opportunity of an effective utilization of production factors in agriculture. It deals with the sources and economic implications of partial enhancement of interest and redirection of support within framework and type of tools of agrarian policy. New quality of structure of relevant information needs and economic support for agricultural enterprises decision making process are pointed out.

  11. Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture. Will warming be harmful?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleischer, Aliza; Lichtman, Ivgenia [Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem (Israel); Mendelsohn, Robert [Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut (United States)

    2008-04-15

    This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. (author)

  12. Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture. Will warming be harmful?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleischer, Aliza; Lichtman, Ivgenia; Mendelsohn, Robert

    2008-01-01

    This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. (author)

  13. Climate change adaptation in South Korea. Environmental politics in the agricultural sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, Susann [Jena Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economic Geography

    2015-07-01

    Climate change will impact ecosystems and production processes. Thus, adaptation to climate change has become a prevalent concept in environmental politics worldwide. In South Korea, climate change is expected to be above the global average. As response, the South Korean government has initiated climate change adaptation in diverse sectors. In this book, the entire process, from formulation and development, implementation and reaction of involved people is examined in a particular sector, agriculture. Theoretically framed as an Actor-Network, this study highlights current developments of South Korean politics, the tensions of urban-periphery development, and the status of agriculture.

  14. Climate change adaptation in South Korea. Environmental politics in the agricultural sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaefer, Susann

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will impact ecosystems and production processes. Thus, adaptation to climate change has become a prevalent concept in environmental politics worldwide. In South Korea, climate change is expected to be above the global average. As response, the South Korean government has initiated climate change adaptation in diverse sectors. In this book, the entire process, from formulation and development, implementation and reaction of involved people is examined in a particular sector, agriculture. Theoretically framed as an Actor-Network, this study highlights current developments of South Korean politics, the tensions of urban-periphery development, and the status of agriculture.

  15. Coupled social and ecological outcomes of land use change and agricultural intensification in Costa Rica and the future of biodiversity conservation in tropical agricultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfiorenzo, A. R.; Shaver, I.; Chain Guadarrama, A.; Cleary, K.; Santiago-Garcia, R.; Finegan, B.; Hormel, L.; Sibelet, N.; Vierling, L. A.; Bosque-Perez, N.; DeClerck, F.; Fagan, M. E.; Waits, L.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical ecosystem conversion to agriculture has caused widespread habitat loss and created fragmented landscapes composed of remnant forest patches embedded in a matrix of agricultural land uses. Non- traditional agricultural export (NTAE) crops such as pineapple are rapidly replacing multiuse landscapes characterized by a diverse matrix of pasture and smallholder crops with intensive, large-scale, monoculture plantations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we conduct a case study to examine the coupled social and ecological implications of LUCC and agricultural intensification in this region, with larger application to regions experiencing similar patterns. Guided by frameworks from both political and landscape ecology, we: (1) describe the social and economic implications of pineapple expansion, specifically the concentration of land, labor and financial resources, (2) quantify pineapple cultivation's spatial characteristics, and (3) assess the effects of pineapple expansion on surrounding forest ecosystems, on the agricultural matrix and on biodiversity conservation. Our results indicate that pineapple production concentrates land, labor, and financial resources, which has a homogenizing effect on the agricultural economy in the study region. This constrains farm-based livelihoods, with larger implications for food security and agricultural diversity. Landscape ecology analyses further reveal how pineapple production simplifies and homogenizes the agricultural matrix between forest patches, which is likely to have a negative effect on biodiversity. To offset the effects of pineapple expansion on social and environmental systems, we recommend developing landscape level land use planning capacity. Furthermore, agricultural and conservation policy reform is needed to promote landscape heterogeneity and economic diversity within the agricultural sector. Our interdisciplinary research provides a detailed examination of the social and ecological impacts of

  16. Climate Change, Agricultural Innovation and Exchange across Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    DAlpoim Guedes, J. A.; Bocinsky, R. K.

    2017-12-01

    Ancient farmers experienced climate change at the local level: through variations in the yields of their staple crops. However, archaeologists have had difficulty in determining where, when and how changes in climate impacted ancient farmers. We model how several key transitions in climate impacted the productivity of five rain-fed crops across Eurasia. Cooling events between 3750 and 3000 cal. BP lead humans in parts of the Tibetan Plateau and in Central Asia to diversify their crops. A second event at 2000 cal. BP lead farmers in Central China to also diversify their cropping systems and to develop man-made systems that allowed transport of grains from Southern to Northern China. In other areas where crop returns fared even worse, humans reduced their risk by increasing investment in nomadic pastoralism and developing long distance networks of trade that coalesced into the Silk Road. By translating changes in climatic variables into factors that mattered to ancient farmers, we situate the adaptive strategies they developed to deal with variance in crop returns in the context of environmental and climatic changes.

  17. Agricultural Land-Use Change and Disappearance of Farmlands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The concept of land-use and land-cover change is as old as the town itself. .... Therefore, the impact of such urban growth and human activities would be ..... of Human Settlements. (CityNet) and the Association of Food Marketing Agencies.

  18. Vulnerability and adaptation of rain fed agriculture to climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJIRO

    2Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es salaam, Box 35097 Dar es ... Minimum temperature increased faster (R2 = 0.68, p<0.001) while maximum ... cash crops, increased insects and pests and eventually low income and food insecurity. ... negative impacts of climate change and variability in the study area.

  19. The Role of Social Networks in Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Abid

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating adaptation into subsistence farming systems is an important strategy to reduce damages related to climate change and to protect livelihoods in developing countries. Using a dataset of 450 farm households collected from three agro-ecological zones, this study examines rural networks, assesses farm-level institutional support and documents any existing structural gaps on climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector of Pakistan. For this purpose, a social network analysis method is used. The study findings reveal that farmers reported a decrease in crop production and increase in pests and diseases due to climate change. Further, changing crop varieties, sowing dates, input mixes and planting trees are the key measures adopted by farmers. Lack of information, finances and resources are the key adaptation constraints. The study findings show that only 28% and 13% of the respondents do not have access to financial services and climate adaptation knowledge, respectively. Support to farmers mainly consists of marketing information and farm equipment from community-based organizations, while private institutions offer weather forecasting services. Public institutions are poorly represented in the network analysis. We also found that extension services are key institutions in the climate adaptation network, while agricultural credits, post-harvest services and marketing of produce were dominant but weakly connected in the financial support network. We also found that with an increase in the provision of services at the farm level, farmers not only adapt more but also move from low-cost and short-term measures to advanced measures. This study proposes an integrated framework to improve the stakeholders’ networking through different kind of partnerships and better adaptation to climate change.

  20. Effects of climate change on agriculture, forests and rural communities : submission to the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cline, E.

    2003-02-01

    The effects of climate change are already being felt in Saskatchewan. Trend data for the twentieth century showed an increase in mean yearly temperature of 1 to 1.5 degrees C on the prairies. Major droughts are disastrous to Saskatchewan's agriculture and forestry sectors, to rural water availability and to the economy in general. Saskatchewan's strategy to manage the effects of climate change from increasing levels of greenhouse gases is based on adaptation research to maximize biological and geological sinks and to explore cost-effective emission reduction initiatives. The province is a world leader in research and development in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture from fossil-fuel fired electricity generation and sequestration of CO 2 in underground geological formations. The research has the potential to greatly reduce world greenhouse gas emissions by turning coal and other fossil fuels into zero emission sources of energy. The efforts that Saskatchewan has taken to reduce agricultural emissions was also described along with beneficial management practices, such as soil conservation and biological sinks. Saskatchewan is concerned that it may be unfairly affected by Canada's Kyoto commitment because of its emission intensive economy. The province would like recognition of the economic importance of its forestry sector and its potential to reduce carbon emissions and as a carbon sink

  1. Women in Physics in a Rapidly Changing China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling-An

    2008-03-01

    Despite the upheavals of the 20th century, physics managed to survive quite well in China, where the first woman president of the American Physical Society was born and bred. During the 1950s as a result of policies that emphasized science and engineering, declared equal rights and equal pay for men and women, and assigned jobs to college graduates irrespective of sex, the number of women in physics increased rapidly, many of whom made notable achievements. Since China's opening up over the last thirty years tremendous changes have taken place, and women now face new opportunities as well as challenges in all aspects of society. Whereas physics used to be regarded as the most elite of the sciences, new fields such as computer science, biotechnology and business are now competing for the best students. Compared with other countries the statistics are not bad; in schools and many physics departments the ratio of women teachers may be 30% or higher, but the numbers drop drastically with rank. Moreover, in some research institutions the ratio of female physicists is actually declining, due to retirement of the older generation and fewer successors. Compulsory retirement for women at an earlier age than for men is also a new factor. Conversely, in recent years the ratio of female graduate students enrolling in physics has increased, even reaching 40% in some universities. However, the reasons for this do not bode well: men are not performing so well as women in entrance exams, while the latter are facing increasing discrimination in employment so they have to seek higher degree qualifications. With the further development of China's economy there will be abundant demand for qualified personnel including women with a physics background. It is imperative to actively support the upcoming generation of women physicists and not lose them in the leaky pipeline. The Chinese Physical Society has taken certain positive steps, such as the recent establishment of the Xie Xi

  2. The impacts of climate change on agriculture in Manitoba

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mooney, S.; Arthur, L.M.

    1990-01-01

    A study was carried out to examine the potential effects of a doubled carbon dioxide climate change scenario on gross margins received from cropping enterprises and the patterns of crop production in Manitoba, Canada. The 1987 run of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) was chosen to supply climatic data. Models were developed for yield changes in existing crops, crop migration, and economic impacts. Three scenarios were considered: scenario 1 using historical seeding dates and climates, scenario 2 using historical seeding dates and a flat 3 degree C temperature increase, and scenario 3 where seeding is advanced 14 days and temperatures increase by 3 degree C. The results suggest that climatic warming will have a beneficial effect on the cropping sector in Manitoba. Gross margins are 53% greater in scenario 2 and 190% greater in scenario 3 when the increased area of productive land is considered. Wider cultivation of higher value crops offsets the negative effect of decreased yields of other crops. The changed climate will favour the introduction of longer maturing varieties of existing crops, greater commerical production of existing crops such as sunflowers, soybeans and corn, and the introduction of totally new crops such as sorghum. 26 refs., 1 tab

  3. Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L

    2013-06-01

    With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to

  4. A Scale-Explicit Framework for Conceptualizing the Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Land Use Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iago Lowe Hale

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Demand for locally-produced food is growing in areas outside traditionally dominant agricultural regions due to concerns over food safety, quality, and sovereignty; rural livelihoods; and environmental integrity. Strategies for meeting this demand rely upon agricultural land use change, in various forms of either intensification or extensification (converting non-agricultural land, including native landforms, to agricultural use. The nature and extent of the impacts of these changes on non-food-provisioning ecosystem services are determined by a complex suite of scale-dependent interactions among farming practices, site-specific characteristics, and the ecosystem services under consideration. Ecosystem modeling strategies which honor such complexity are often impenetrable by non-experts, resulting in a prevalent conceptual gap between ecosystem sciences and the field of sustainable agriculture. Referencing heavily forested New England as an example, we present a conceptual framework designed to synthesize and convey understanding of the scale- and landscape-dependent nature of the relationship between agriculture and various ecosystem services. By accounting for the total impact of multiple disturbances across a landscape while considering the effects of scale, the framework is intended to stimulate and support the collaborative efforts of land managers, scientists, citizen stakeholders, and policy makers as they address the challenges of expanding local agriculture.

  5. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  6. Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P

    2001-01-01

    The colonization of the circumpolar peoples has had a profound influence on their health. History tells about devastating epidemics and the introduction of alcohol. The last 50 years have witnessed an unprecedented societal development in Greenland and a rapid epidemiological transition. Physical...... health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

  7. Assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated in geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Iannetta, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    ENEA has created, in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley, the Global Change Biology project that, for the first time, has made available in Europe a technology that can be It used to interpret and effectively manage change Global agriculture. The aim of the project was to provide tools to summarize, manage and analyze data Ecological on the effects of global change in agricultural systems, using traditional Mediterranean crops (Eg. Vineyards and olive) as model systems (http: // cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/89728_en.html). [it

  8. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  9. A big data management platform for rapidly changing environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zahedi, P.

    2014-01-01

    Big data is now a reality. Storing, managing, and analyzing very large amount of data is a common challenge in the world of technology where digital content is rapidly growing. In recent years, FEI advanced electron microscopes, with their unsurpassed magnification and resolving power brought an

  10. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  11. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Palatella

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy, Ebro river basin (Spain, Po valley (Italy and Antalya province (Turkey. We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500 as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  12. Agriculture: Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  13. Utilizing intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity to bolster agricultural and forest productivity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinwall, Michael J; Loik, Michael E; Resco de Dios, Victor; Tjoelker, Mark G; Payton, Paxton R; Tissue, David T

    2015-09-01

    Climate change threatens the ability of agriculture and forestry to meet growing global demands for food, fibre and wood products. Information gathered from genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E), which demonstrate intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity (the ability of a genotype to alter its phenotype in response to environmental change), may prove important for bolstering agricultural and forest productivity under climate change. Nonetheless, very few studies have explicitly quantified genotype plasticity-productivity relationships in agriculture or forestry. Here, we conceptualize the importance of intraspecific variation in agricultural and forest species plasticity, and discuss the physiological and genetic factors contributing to intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity. Our discussion highlights the need for an integrated understanding of the mechanisms of G × E, more extensive assessments of genotypic responses to climate change under field conditions, and explicit testing of genotype plasticity-productivity relationships. Ultimately, further investigation of intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity in agriculture and forestry may prove important for identifying genotypes capable of increasing or sustaining productivity under more extreme climatic conditions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby

    2009-01-01

    Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.

  15. Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Wheaton

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production, but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended.

  16. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  17. Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

    2010-09-27

    This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.

  18. Quality indicators in subtropical soils of Formosa, Argentina: Changes for agriculturization process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Esteban Baridón

    2014-12-01

    The changes produced in the Typic Hapludolls and Typic Argiudolls after 25 years of continuously using native forests, agriculture, fruit plantations and pastures were analyzed. These changes were in pH, electrical conductivity, total organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, total nitrogen, structural stability, hydraulic conductivity, respiration and dehydrogenase and urease and enzyme activity. Variables with significant differences between diverse uses were evaluated by multivariate methods, Principal Component Analysis, and Correlation Analysis. The results of this study showed that total organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, structural stability and dehydrogenase activity are the quality indicators most affected by agriculturization. All are related to organic matter.

  19. Adaptation to climate change in rainfed agriculture in the global south

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sidibé, Yoro; Foudi, Sébastien; Pascual, Unai

    2018-01-01

    Increased drought frequency in many parts of the world, especially in the global South, is expected due to accelerating climate change. We present a bioeconomic model that unpacks the role of soil biodiversity as contributing to both increasing and stabilizing agricultural productivity in low......-based adaptation strategy. However, this is only likely to be the case up to a given drought probability threshold. The natural insurance value of soil biodiversity for climate change adaptation in drought prone rainfed agricultural systems depends on a combination of key hydrological, agronomic and economic...

  20. Rapid deuterium exchange-in time for probing conformational change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmasiri, K.; Smith, D.L.

    1995-01-01

    Isotopic exchange of protein backbone amide hydrogens has been used extensively as a sensitive probe of protein structure. One of the salient features of hydrogen exchange is the vast range of exchange rates in one protein. Isotopic exchange methods have been used to study the structural features including protein folding and unfolding (1), functionally different forms of proteins (2), protein-protein complexation (3), and protein stability parameter. Many backbone amide protons that are surface accessible and are not involved in hydrogen bonding undergo rapid deuterium exchange. In order to study, fast exchanging amide protons, fast exchange-in times are necessary

  1. Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

    2017-12-01

    Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

  2. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  3. Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China's Agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, H.; Li, Xiubin [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101 (China); Fischer, G.; Sun, Laixiang [International Institute for Applied System Analysis IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria)

    2004-07-01

    This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios.

  4. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  5. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  6. Quantify the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Jain, A. K.; Calvin, K. V.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the rapid socioeconomic development and biophysical factors, South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has become a hotspot region of land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) in past few decades. Uncovering the drivers of LULCC is crucial for improving the understanding of LULCC processes. Due to the differences from spatiotemporal scales, methods and data sources in previous studies, the quantitative relationships between the LULCC activities and biophysical and socioeconomic drivers at the regional scale of SSEA have not been established. Here we present a comprehensive estimation of the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of the major LULCC activities in SSEA: changes in forest and agricultural land. We used the Climate Change Initiative land cover data developed by European Space Agency to reveal the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015. Then we synthesized 200 publications about LULCC drivers at different spatial scales in SSEA to identify the major drivers of these LULCC activities. Corresponding representative variables of the major drivers were collected. The geographically weighted regression was employed to assess the spatiotemporally heterogeneous drivers of LULCC. Moreover, we validated our results with some national level case studies in SSEA. The results showed that both biophysical conditions such as terrain, soil, and climate, and socioeconomic factors such as migration, poverty, and economy played important roles in driving the changes of forest and agricultural land. The major drivers varied in different locations and periods. Our study integrated the bottom-up knowledge from local scale case studies with the top-down estimation of LULCC drivers, therefore generated more accurate and credible results. The identified biophysical and socioeconomic components could be used to improve the LULCC modelling and projection.

  7. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh: The role of formal institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Torikul; Nursey-Bray, Melissa

    2017-09-15

    Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

    2013-01-15

    Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The objective of this pilot study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District : (BART) infrastructure and to develop and implement adaptation strategies against those impacts. Climate change haza...

  11. Urbanization and the Change of Fertilizer Use Intensity for Agricultural Production in Henan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available China’s urbanization has resulted in significant changes in agricultural land use. However, understanding of the linkages between urbanization and fertilizer use intensity is limited. Using county-level panel data for Henan Province, 1995–2008 and panel econometric models, we investigate the impact of urbanization and other socioeconomic factors on fertilizer use intensity, with a focus on the two key processes related to urbanization—shrinking agricultural land area and increasing urban wages. Our results show that declining agricultural land per capita is associated with greater fertilizer use intensity. Urban wages is positively correlated with fertilizer use intensity. We also find that GDP per capita and per capita expenditure of government for agriculture both positively contribute to the increase of fertilizer use intensity, which is consistent with expectations. Our results imply that other than land conversion, urbanization contains some positive influences on land use sustainability. However, on the other hand, urbanization contributes to agriculture-based environmental pollution by increasing the level of fertilizer use in agricultural production.

  12. Land Use Change and Agricultural Land Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Activities in an Hot Spot Area: A Case Study for Thrace Region of Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altürk, Bahadır; Konukcu, Fatih

    2017-04-01

    Agricultural lands that supply food, energy and ecosystem services for human life have been lost due to anthropogenic activities such as construction of roads, urban and industry areas. The significant reasons for the increase of artificial surfaces were poorly planned economic decisions by the government and internal migration due to this poorly planning. Unplanned urban sprawl also give rise to land fragmentation. Fragmentation of agricultural land affects both the agricultural production capacity and rural sustainable employment. In this study: i) Land use changes between 1990-2014 period were assessed using remotely sensed data and ii) Spatial and temporal agricultural land fragmentation were investigated using landscape pattern indice (effective mesh size), Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and Entropy method for 25 years period. The selected"hot spot" study area is located on east Thrace region of Turkey, being the service and industrial development zone where agricultural activities, water resources and natural habitat have been damaged due to rapid urban and industrial development for about 25 years. The results showed that agricultural lands decreased 6.44%, urban areas increased 111.68% and industry areas increased 251.19% during this 25 years period. Additionally, fragmentation analyses demonstrated that core agricultural areas sharply decreased and relative fragmentation (effective mesh size) increased from 50.68% to 56.77% during 1990 and 2014.

  13. Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Karin Barrueto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models foresee changes in temperature and precipitation regimes that shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural market systems. Understanding the influence of climate change on the different sub-sectors and functions of a market system is crucial to increasing the systems’ climate resilience and to ensuring the long-term viability of the sectors. Our research applies a new approach to climate change analysis to better understand the influence of climate change on each step of an agricultural market system—on its core (processing units, storage facilities and sales and support functions (sapling supply, research, insurance and agricultural policy. We use spatial climate analyses to investigate current and projected changes in climate for different regions in Nepal. We then analyse the risks and vulnerabilities of the sub-sectors banana, charcoal, coffee, macadamia, orange, vegetables and walnut. Our results show that temperatures and precipitation levels will change differently depending on the climatic regions, and that climate change elicits different responses from the market functions both between and within each of the different sub-sectors. We conclude that climate-related interventions in market systems must account for each different market function’s specific response and exposure to climate change, in order to select adaptation measures that ensure long-term climate resilience.

  14. Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

    2016-12-01

    With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

  15. Implications of agricultural land use change to ecosystem services in the Ganges delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, G M Tarekul; Islam, A K M Saiful; Shopan, Ahsan Azhar; Rahman, Md Munsur; Lázár, Attila N; Mukhopadhyay, Anirban

    2015-09-15

    Ecosystems provide the basis for human civilization and natural capital for green economy and sustainable development. Ecosystem services may range from crops, fish, freshwater to those that are harder to see such as erosion regulation, carbon sequestration, and pest control. Land use changes have been identified as the main sources of coastal and marine pollution in Bangladesh. This paper explores the temporal variation of agricultural land use change and its implications with ecosystem services in the Ganges delta. With time agricultural lands have been decreased and wetlands have been increased at a very high rate mainly due to the growing popularity of saltwater shrimp farming. In a span of 28 years, the agricultural lands have been reduced by approximately 50%, while the wetlands have been increased by over 500%. A large portion (nearly 40%) of the study area is covered by the Sundarbans which remained almost constant which can be attributed to the strict regulatory intervention to preserve the Sundarbans. The settlement & others land use type has also been increased to nearly 5%. There is a gradual uptrend of shrimp and fish production in the study area. The findings suggest that there are significant linkages between agricultural land use change and ecosystem services in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. The continuous decline of agricultural land (due to salinization) and an increase of wetland have been attributed to the conversion of agricultural land into shrimp farming in the study area. Such land use change requires significant capital, therefore, only investors and wealthier land owners can get the higher profit from the land conversion while the poor people is left with the environmental consequences that affect their long-term lives and livelihood. An environmental management plan is proposed for sustainable land use in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Evidence-based medicine in rapidly changing technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroeder, Torben Veith

    2008-01-01

    Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is not a randomised controlled trial (RCT), but EBM seeks to apply evidence gained from scientific methods - which could be RCT - to daily medical practice. Any surgical treatment reflects a certain development technically as well as skills based. The procedure may....... Special considerations should be given in rapidly developing fields. If started too early the resulting comparison will likely turn out to be irrelevant because the new technology is not fully developed, not mastered or the device may have undergone major modifications rendering the results obsolete....... On the other hand, if started too late there is a chance that data may be lost because the technology has already been introduced into the daily clinics and physicians may be unwilling to recruit patients. Or the opposite, that the technique may have been rejected without a proper trial. In this situation...

  17. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  18. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beek, Christy L. van; Meerburg, Bastiaan G.; Schils, Rene L.M.; Verhagen, Jan; Kuikman, Peter J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present. These are mainly developing countries and countries in transition, the so-called non-Annex I countries of the UNFCCC. However, intensification of agricultural production systems is currently closely linked to high emissions of greenhouse gases notably nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ). In this paper the relations between population growth, agricultural development and emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 were assessed for 10 non-Annex I countries, viz. China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We combined FAO data on agricultural production levels, CENSUS data on population statistics and EDGAR data on N 2 O and CH 4 emissions. The projected trends in agricultural production indicate that emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 are expected to increase rapidly in the coming years and will level off from 2040 onwards. The results confirm the positive relation between population increase and increased emissions from agricultural activities for most countries. However, for some countries (South Africa, China and Mexico) this relation was weak or absent. Although numerous factors (e.g. changes in international trade) may have scattered the relation and we were unable to explain this decoupling, it suggests that population growth can be possible without additional emissions. The variation between the different countries and farming systems is however large and mitigation measures at farm-level should be tailored to the wide diversity in environmental conditions, regional customs and farming systems.

  19. People's response to policy change in agricultural development organization : the Benin case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tossou, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    This book is about change. It deals with the way in which social actors, be they individuals or groups, involved in the agricultural development of Benin reconstruct for themselves the new policy context in order to develop relevant strategies translating policy measures into practical

  20. Focus on Agriculture and Forestry Benefits of Reducing Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this focus issue is to present the methods and results of modeling exercises that estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry under a consistent set of climate projections that represent futures with and without global-scale GHG mitigation....

  1. Seven Steps in Identifying Local Climate Change Responses for Agriculture in Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, R.H.; Ngo, An T.; Huynh, Chuong V.; Le, Huong T.; Dang, Nhan K.; Van, Tri P.D.; Halsema, van G.E.

    2016-01-01

    This study presents a seven-step approach to identify and support local climate change (CC) responses in agriculture. The following seven steps comprise this approach: 1. Analyse past trends on the climatic factors and model the future trends. 2. Simulate the possible impacts of CC on the selected

  2. Branching out: Agroforestry as a climate change mitigation and adaptation tool for agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States and Canadian agricultural lands are being targeted to provide more environmental and economic services while at the same time their capacity to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned. Predictions of future climate conditions include longer gr...

  3. The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed-scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, ...

  4. Framing Climate Change Communication to Prompt Individual and Collective Action among Adolescents from Agricultural Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Kathryn T.; King, Tasha L.; Selm, Kathryn R.; Peterson, M. Nils; Monroe, Martha C.

    2018-01-01

    Climate communication research suggests strategic message framing may help build public consensus on climate change causes, risks and solutions. However, few have investigated how framing applies to adolescents. Similarly, little research has focused on agricultural audiences, who are among the most vulnerable to and least accepting of climate…

  5. Challenging a trickle-down view of climate change on agriculture and groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global climate change is largely viewed as affecting ecohydrology of the Earth’s surface, but various studies are showing deeper effects on groundwater. Agricultural systems may be studied at the land surface and into the root zone with deeper effects of water and chemical movement to groundwater. ...

  6. From alternative Agriculture to the Food Industry, The Need for Changes in Food Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Heine; Nielsen, Thorkild

    1997-01-01

    have established rules and control systems for organic agriculture (the last decade). A break-through of organic food production is now taking place in some EU member states. This third change is indicated by more positive attitudes to organic products from the food industry but also by an increasing...... need for a more appropriate respons in the food policy....

  7. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics...

  8. Rural demographic change, rising wages and the restructuring of Chinese agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Tianxiang; Yu, Wusheng; Baležentis, Tomas

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of recent demographic transition and rising labor costs on agricultural production structure and pattern in China during 1998-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors, first, theoretically discuss the effects of changing relative...

  9. Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miguel Ayala, Laura; Eupen, van Michiel; Zhang, Guoping; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Martorano, Lucieta G.; Lisboa, Leila S.; Beltrao, Norma E.

    2016-01-01

    Agricultural expansion and intensification are main drivers of land-use change in Brazil. Soybean is the major crop under expansion in the area. Soybean production involves large amounts of water and fertiliser that act as sources of contamination with potentially negative impacts on adjacent

  10. Recommendations arising from an analysis of changes to the Australian agricultural research, development and extension system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hunt, Warren; Birch, Colin; Vanclay, Frank; Coutts, Jeff

    The business of agricultural research, development and extension (RD&E) has undergone considerable change in Australia since the late 1980s, moving from a domain largely dominated by government departments to a situation of multiple actors, and where rural industries now directly contribute funds

  11. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  12. Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagena, Moges B; Easton, Zachary M

    2018-09-01

    Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs; buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO 3 -N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN export (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO 3 -N (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting agricultural

  13. Partnering for change in chains : on the capacity of partnerships to promote sustainable change in global agricultural commodity chains

    OpenAIRE

    Bitzer, V.C.

    2011-01-01

    Partnerships mirror the changing nature of the relationships among state, business and civil society organizations, and are often considered as innovative mechanisms to overcome single actor failure in the context of globalization. This thesis analyzes the capacity of partnerships to promote sustainable change in global agricultural commodity chains, using the global coffee, cotton and cocoa chains as main fields of application for the empirical analyses. All three chains are characterized by...

  14. Breeding for plant adaptations and agricultural measures in response to climatic changes in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popović Aleksandar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving the production of different cultivated plant species is of great importance for both human and animals, as well as for industrial processing. In the light of global climate changing and searching for renewable sources of energy, this task becomes even more important. Scientists from different areas of research, are actively involved in solving this complex task. Climate changes represent a big challenge not only for agricultural practices, but also for the process of shaping agricultural strategies. Recent studies indicate that climate changes can not be stopped. Constantly growing problems brought by global climate changes could be, to a larger extent, overcome by breeding programs, along with application of adequate agrotechnical measures. Thus, development of new varieties and hybrids with improved performances in response to more frequent and unfavorable environmental conditions, is of prime importance in breeding centers.

  15. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-07-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  16. On The Impact of Climate Change to Agricultural Productivity in East Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuswanto, Heri; Salamah, Mutiah; Mumpuni Retnaningsih, Sri; Dwi Prastyo, Dedy

    2018-03-01

    Many researches showed that climate change has significant impact on agricultural sector, which threats the food security especially in developing countries. It has been observed also that the climate change increases the intensity of extreme events. This research investigated the impact climate to the agricultural productivity in East Java, as one of the main rice producers in Indonesia. Standard regression as well as panel regression models have been performed in order to find the best model which is able to describe the climate change impact. The analysis found that the fixed effect model of panel regression outperforms the others showing that climate change had negatively impacted the rice productivity in East Java. The effect in Malang and Pasuruan were almost the same, while the impact in Sumenep was the least one compared to other districts.

  17. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-01-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  18. Linking the Agricultural Production and Climate Change in Central Asia: 1991-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarskii, V.; Shemyakina, O.; Sokolik, I. N.

    2016-12-01

    We present results of the impact of climate change on the agricultural output in Central Asia (CA) since 1991. While profit-maximizing farmers in the market based economies would be expected to change their cropping patterns fairly fast in response to climate change, we do not expect that to happen in the CA region that was for a long time driven by Soviet production plans with a limited room for personal choice. We explore the relationship between the agricultural productivity (measured by the actual output) and the variations in average monthly temperatures during growing seasons and precipitation. The climate data for Central Asia are generated using the Weather Research (WRF) Model for 1985-2012. We make use of data on air temperature on 2m height, C, and total precipitation. The data on the agricultural production comes from the State Statistical Agencies of the three Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Data on agricultural production for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are not available from online government sources. We model the agricultural production as a function of annual realization of weather in a specific region. This economic approach includes converting daily temperature into degree days, which represents heating units. The two key weather variables are a measure of heat (degree days) and total precipitation in the growing season, April 1st to October 30th. Preliminary regression results estimated for Kazakhstan, indicate that degree days during growing season is negatively and total precipitation is positively associated with the agricultural output. Both coefficients are not statistically significant. Further analysis will include data from other countries and also by the region.

  19. Managing in the rapidly changing context of higher education: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Besides the rate of change in the sector there are also, as seen from the continuous media coverage, a number of universities and technikons in some form of financial or leadership crisis. Over the past years one of the main reasons given for these crises was outstanding student fees. However, the reasons now alluded to ...

  20. Alveolar bone changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Mehmet; Baka, Zeliha Muge; Ileri, Zehra; Basciftci, Faruk Ayhan

    2015-09-01

    To quantitatively evaluate the effects of asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) on cortical bone thickness and buccal alveolar bone height (BABH), and to determine the formation of dehiscence and fenestration in the alveolar bone surrounding the posterior teeth, using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT records of 23 patients with true unilateral posterior skeletal crossbite (10 boys, 14.06 ± 1.08 years old, and 13 girls, 13.64 ± 1.32 years old) who had undergone ARME were selected from our clinic archives. The bonded acrylic ARME appliance, including an occlusal stopper, was used on all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME (T1) and after the 3-month retention period (T2). Axial slices of the CBCT images at 3 vertical levels were used to evaluate the buccal and palatal aspects of the canines, first and second premolars, and first molars. Paired samples and independent sample t-tests were used for statistical comparison. The results suggest that buccal cortical bone thickness of the affected side was significantly more affected by the expansion than was the unaffected side (P ARME significantly reduced the BABH of the canines (P ARME also increased the incidence of dehiscence and fenestration on the affected side. ARME may quantitatively decrease buccal cortical bone thickness and height on the affected side.

  1. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S

    2018-12-23

    The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. People's response to policy change in agricultural development organization : the Benin case

    OpenAIRE

    Tossou, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    This book is about change. It deals with the way in which social actors, be they individuals or groups, involved in the agricultural development of Benin reconstruct for themselves the new policy context in order to develop relevant strategies translating policy measures into practical objectives and concrete actions. The main objectives of the study are to:

    (1) understand the official definitions of the changing conditions in each of the cases studied and the rationales supp...

  3. Trade Liberalization and Climate Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katrin Rehdanz

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the A1B and A2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalization, as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Significant reductions in agricultural tariffs lead to modest changes in regional water use. Patterns are non-linear. On the regional level, water use may go up for partial liberalization, and down for more complete liberalization. This is because different crops respond differently to tariff reductions, and because trade and competition matter too. Moreover, trade liberalization tends to reduce water use in water scarce regions, and increase water use in water abundant regions, even though water markets do not exist in most countries. Considering impacts of climate change, the results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall over time while food prices increase. Larger changes are observed under the SRES A2 scenario for the medium term (2020 and under the SRES A1B scenario for the long term (2050. Combining scenarios of future climate change with trade liberalization, countries are affected differently. However, the overall effect on welfare does not change much.

  4. Agriculture in the Fertile Crescent: Continuity and change under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Fertile Crescent is a highly biodiverse region where most temperate-zone agricultural species originated and were first domesticated. A favorable environment, a special plant community, and an adaptive population combined to initiate the transition from a hunter-gatherer economy to one based on ...

  5. VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NEW MEMBER STATES OF EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mária Fekete FARKASNÉ

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, as our Planet became more vulnerable, the demand for improved knowledge of environmental process and the impact of human activity on their dynamic increased. The debate over climate change has clearly entered a new phase that is focusing on what must be done related to mitigation and adaptation. It is there for clear how important agricultural land use change is for the global environment in all its varied components. Different factors, including demographic trends, economic growth and affluence, technology, agricultural and rural policies, institutional structure, social a ttitudes and values and other key driving forces, lead to changes in land use and land cover resulting in a range of impacts on yields, farm income, biodiversity, landscape identity water quality, flooding, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion. As the impacts of climate change become more noticeable, international, national and local awareness of the need to prepare for, and respond to, the impacts of climate change has grown. In the face of increasing uncertainty of climat e variability, and socio-economic situation their effectiveness may be reduced significantly. In such a context, prediction of socio-economic trends and the environment changing in space and time is clearly impossible. Given these constraints, an alternative technique for analysis is required. This paper is focusing on the methodology issues of vulnerability analysis in agriculture with special attention on new member states of EU.

  6. Possible adaptation measures of agriculture sector in the Nile Delta to climate change impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Attaher

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The overall agricultural system in the Nile Delta region is considered as one of the highest intensive and complicated agriculture systems in the world. According to the recent studies, the Nile Delta region is one of the highly vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. Sea level rise, soil and water degradation, undiversified crop-pattern, yield reduction, pests and disease severity, and irrigation and drainage management were the main key factors that increased vulnerability of the agriculture sector in that region. The main objective of this study is to conduct a community-based multi-criteria adaptation assessment in the Nile Delta using a preset questionnaire. A list of possible adaptation measures for agriculture sector was evaluated. The results indicated that the Nile Delta growers have strong perceptions to act positively to reduce the impacts of climate change. They reflected the need to improve the their adaptive capacity based on clear scientific message with adequate governmental support to coop with the negative impacts of climate change.

  7. The role of agricultural engineering in the management of landscape changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Fumagalli

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Landscape represents the “sensory aspect” of the land and as such it can be appreciated by all the five senses: sight, smelling, hearing, touch and taste. At the same time, landscape evolves over time and its value – ecological, economical and affective – changes as its constitutive elements change. Engineering can help “to drive” this evolution addressing it towards a condition of balance between individual and community requirements, especially referred to the effect of technological development on landscape. This effect can be referred to three dimensions: perceptive, functional and symbolic dimensions. The possible contribution to the management of landscape changes concerns all the three historic souls of Agricultural Engineering; in particular, Agricultural Hydraulics deals with the topic of landscape referring to both irrigation and the possible recreational use of canal systems; Agricultural Engineering determines plot form and size and woodland view; Rural Building deals with both the recovery of existing buildings and the design and making of new ones and their fitting in the landscape; moreover, the sector has developed new methods for the evaluation and the planning of rural land resources, especially about agriculture and forestry productivity, ecological stability and visual quality of rural land itself.

  8. Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing-Guo Mo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP, where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation–ET about 4%–24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%–15.9% in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

  9. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  10. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  11. Changes in hydrology and salinity accompanying a century of agricultural conversion in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayawickreme, Dushmantha H; Santoni, Celina S; Kim, John H; Jobbágy, Esteban G; Jackson, Robert B

    2011-10-01

    Conversions of natural woodlands to agriculture can alter the hydrologic balance, aquifer recharge, and salinity of soils and groundwater in ways that influence productivity and sustainable land use. Using a land-use change chronosequence in semiarid woodlands of Argentina's Espinal province, we examined the distribution of moisture and solutes and estimated recharge rates on adjacent plots of native woodlands and rain-fed agriculture converted 6-90 years previously. Soil coring and geoelectrical profiling confirmed the presence of spatially extensive salt accumulations in dry woodlands and pervasive salt losses in areas converted to agriculture. A 1.1-km-long electrical resistivity transect traversing woodland, 70-year-old agriculture, and woodland, for instance, revealed a low-resistivity (high-salinity) horizon between approximately 3 m and 13 m depth in the woodlands that was virtually absent in the agricultural site because of leaching. Nine-meter-deep soil profiles indicated a 53% increase in soil water storage after 30 or more years of cultivation. Conservative groundwater-recharge estimates based on chloride tracer methods in agricultural plots ranged from approximately 12 to 45 mm/yr, a substantial increase from the led to >95% loss of sulfate and chloride ions from the shallow vadose zone in most agriculture plots. These losses correspond to over 100 Mg of sulfate and chloride salts potentially released to the region's groundwater aquifers through time with each hectare of deforestation, including a capacity to increase groundwater salinity to >4000 mg/L from these ions alone. Similarities between our findings and those of the dryland salinity problems of deforested woodlands in Australia suggest an important warning about the potential ecohydrological risks brought by the current wave of deforestation in the Espinal and other regions of South America and the world.

  12. Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Vliet, Nathalie; Mertz, Ole; Heinimann, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    ultifunctionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low......This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including...... biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where...

  13. Synergies between mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2010-01-01

    There is a very significant, cost effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential in agriculture. The annual mitigation potential in agriculture is estimated to be 4200, 2600 and 1600 Mt CO2 equiv/yr at C prices of 100, 50 and 20 US$/t CO2 equiv, respectively. The value of GHG mitigated each...... year is equivalent to 420 000, 130 000 and 32 000 million US$/yr for C prices of 100, 50 and 20 US$/t CO2 equiv, respectively. From both the mitigation and economic perspectives, we cannot afford to miss out on this mitigation potential. The challenge of agriculture within the climate change context...... of the agroecosystem in some way. This often not only affects the GHG emissions but also the soil properties and nutrient cycling. Adaptation to increased variability of temperature and rainfall involves increasing the resilience of the production systems. This may be done by improving soil water holding capacities...

  14. Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in

  15. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  16. Climate change and maize agriculture among Chepang communities of Nepal: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pratiksha Sharma

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent literature concerning effects of climate change on agriculture and its agricultural adaptation strategies, climate change impacts on Chepang communities and their maize farming. Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to agricultural productivity. Change in temperature and precipitation specially has greater influence on crop growth and productivity and most of these effect are found to be adverse. Climate change has been great global threat with global temperature rise by 0.83 °C and global sea level rise by 0.19 m. Poor countries of the world are more vulnerable to changing climate due to different technological, institutional and resource constraints. In context of Nepal, practices like tree plantation, lowering numbers of livestock, shifting to off farm activities, sloping agricultural land technology (SALT and shifting cultivation are most common coping strategies. Chepang, one of the most backward indigenous ethnic groups of Nepal are also found to perceive change in the climate. Perception and adaptation strategies followed by different farmers of world including Chepang is mainly found to be effected by household head’s age, size of farm, family size, assessment to credit, information and extension service, training received and transportation. Maize is second most important crop in Nepal in which increase in temperature is favorable in Mountain and its yield is negatively influenced by increase in summer rain and maximum temperature. Local knowledge of indigenous people provides new insights into the phenomenon that has not yet been scientifically researched. So, government should combine this perceptive with scientific climate scenario and should conduct activities in term of adoption strategies and policies to insist targeted and marginalized farmers.

  17. The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

  18. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-05-01

    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  19. Agriculture and natural resources in a changing world - the role of irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, T.; Havlík, P.; Schneider, U. A.; Kindermann, G.; Obersteiner, M.

    2009-04-01

    Fertile land and fresh water constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. Against the background of resource sustainability and food security topics, this study integrates the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management into a global land use model. It represents a first large scale assessment of agricultural water use under explicit consideration of alternative irrigation options in their particular biophysical, economic, and technical context, accounting for international trade, motivation-based farming, and quantified aggregated impacts on land scarcity, water scarcity, and food supply. The inclusion of technical and economic aspects of irrigation choice into an integrated land use modeling framework provides new insights into the interdisciplinary trade-offs between determinants of global land use change. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and agricultural water use, but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress in agriculture, predicted population and income levels for 2030 would require substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food to equilibrate supply and demand.

  20. Changing patterns in water toxicity associated with current use pesticides in three California agriculture regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brian S; Phillips, Bryn M; Voorhees, Jennifer P; Deng, Xin; Geraci, Jeff; Worcester, Karen; Tjeerdema, Ron S

    2018-03-01

    Regulation of agriculture irrigation water discharges in California, USA, is assessed and controlled by its 9 Regional Water Quality Control Boards under the jurisdiction of the California State Water Resources Control Board. Each Regional Water Board has developed programs to control pesticides in runoff as part of the waste discharge requirements implemented through each region's Irrigated Lands Regulatory Program. The present study assessed how pesticide use patterns differ in the Imperial (Imperial County) and the Salinas and Santa Maria (Monterey County) valleys, which host 3 of California's prime agriculture areas. Surface-water toxicity associated with current use pesticides was monitored at several sites in these areas in 2014 and 2015, and results were linked to changes in pesticide use patterns in these areas. Pesticide use patterns appeared to coincide with differences in the way agriculture programs were implemented by the 2 respective Regional Water Quality Control Boards, and these programs differed in the 2 Water Board Regions. Different pesticide use patterns affected the occurrence of pesticides in agriculture runoff, and this influenced toxicity test results. Greater detection frequency and higher concentrations of the organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos were detected in agriculture runoff in Imperial County compared to Monterey County, likely due to more rigorous monitoring requirements for growers using this pesticide in Monterey County. Monterey County agriculture runoff contained toxic concentrations of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid pesticides, which impacted amphipods (Hyalella azteca) and midge larvae (Chironomus dilutus) in toxicity tests. Study results illustrate how monitoring strategies need to evolve as regulatory actions affect change in pesticide use and demonstrate the importance of using toxicity test indicator species appropriate for the suite of contaminants in runoff in order to accurately assess environmental risk. Integr

  1. Climate change adaptation options for sustainable management of agriculture in the Eastern Lower Danube Plain, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popovici, Elena-Ana; Sima, Mihaela; Balteanu, Dan; Dragota, Carmen-Sofia; Grigorescu, Ines; Kucsicsa, Gheorghe

    2013-04-01

    The current study was carried out within the FP7 ECLISE project in the Eastern Lower Danube Plain (Bărăgan Plain), one of the major agricultural areas in Romania. In this region, climate change signals are becoming more evident being predominantly characterized by increasing temperatures, decreasing of precipitations and intensification of extreme events in terms of frequency, intensity and duration. Over the past decades, the effects of extreme climatic phenomena on crop production have been ever more severe (very low outputs in the droughty years, significant crop losses during flooding periods, hailstorms, etc.). Concurrently, these effects have been the result of a whole range of complex interactions with other environmental, social, economic and political factors over the post-communist period. Using questionnaires survey for small individual households and large agricultural farms, focus group interviews and direct field observation, this study analyses the farmers' perception in terms of climate change, the impact of climate change on agriculture and how the farmers react and adapt to these changes. The current study have revealed that all farmers believe drought as being by far the most important climatic factor with major impact on agricultural production, followed by acid rains, hail storms and ground frost, facts evidenced also by the climatic diagnosis of the region. The majority of respondents have taken adaptation agricultural measures in response to changes in climate conditions (drought resistant seeds, modern technology to keep the moisture in the soil, etc.), but they consider that a national strategy for mitigating the effects of climate change would be more effective in this respect. Also, in order to correlate the farmers' perception of climate change and climatic factors, the authors used and processed a wide range of meteorological data (daily, monthly and annual from the most representative meteorological stations in the study-area), as

  2. How could Mosan agriculture be impacted by climate change and future droughts ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauwens, A.; Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

    2012-04-01

    Despite the great uncertainties regarding the future climatic context, lots of studies have focused on hydrological effects of climate change on the Meuse catchment. It appears that both winter high flows and summer low flows could be exacerbated. Climate change and its impacts on hydrology will thus affect various socio-economic sectors. High flows have been widely studied compared to low-flows. This poster will put the emphasis on a methodology developed in order to study impacts of droughts on agriculture. Agriculture is among the most impacted sectors due to climate change. The consequences could be both positive as negative in accordance with the range of predicted changes and the adaptation capacity of agricultural systems. Most of the existing studies related to climate change on agriculture focused on specific territory. Within the AMICE Interreg IVB project, a transnational approach has been developed to assess droughts impacts on agriculture through the Meuse basin. The project's previous works gave us a common scenario of climate trends and of the evolution of the hydrology in the Meuse basin. The methodology is based on the use of a physically-based model able to simulate the water-soil-plant continuum (derived from EPIC model). In order to be transferable from one country to another, the methodology proposed used data available at the basin scale. The UE soil data base was complemented with local information on agricultural practices and statistics. Three crops have been studied: maize, wheat and barley. The basic cultural calendar is supposed to be the same for the different countries. The methodology developed permits to study the evolution of yields, leaf area index, crops stress due to excess or lack of water through time under different scenarios build up in the frame of the project. It appears that corn is negatively affected by climate change, and thus despite the CO2 fertilization effect. Wheat and barley have similar behavior and are

  3. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely; Donelson, Jennifer M.; Aranda, Manuel; Barshis, Daniel J.; Bay, Line; Berumen, Michael L.; Bourne, David G.; Cantin, Neal; Foret, Sylvain; Matz, Mikhail; Miller, David J.; Moya, Aurelie; Putnam, Hollie M.; Ravasi, Timothy; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.; Thurber, Rebecca Vega; Vidal-Dupiol, Jeremie; Voolstra, Christian R.; Watson, Sue-Ann; Whitelaw, Emma; Willis, Bette L.; Munday, Philip L.

    2017-01-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  4. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Andrew H; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Pusey, Anne E; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ochman, Howard

    2014-11-18

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversification, but human microbiomes have deviated from the ancestral state at an accelerated rate. Relative to the microbiomes of wild apes, human microbiomes have lost ancestral microbial diversity while becoming specialized for animal-based diets. Individual wild apes cultivate more phyla, classes, orders, families, genera, and species of bacteria than do individual humans across a range of societies. These results indicate that humanity has experienced a depletion of the gut flora since diverging from Pan.

  5. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  6. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  7. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-21

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  8. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-01

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  9. Agriculture as the cause and sufferer of a possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauerbeck, D.

    1994-01-01

    The trace gases emittet by agriculture have a potential to change the climate. They contribute approx 9% to the putatively anthropogenic greenhouse effect. If one includes the destruction of tropical forests for silvicultural purposes, then as much as 1/5 of the CO 2 , almost 2/3 of the CH 4 and another estimated 2/3 of the N 2 O produced by man come from agricultural activities. While the abatement potential for CO 2 is small, that for CH 4 and N 2 O is large. Ironically, if the threat of climate change becomes reality, its impact on agriculture will be formidable. While the rate of photosynthesis does increase with growing CO 2 supply, there is no saying to what extent this can compensate the effects of rising temperatures and worsening seasonal droughts. The interrelations are always incredibly diverse and complex and, in addition, vary from case to case. Given this couplecity it would be wholly unwarranted to predict a 'Greening of the Planet Earth' as the outcome of the 'Global Warming'. For example, if as a result of global warming the cultivated zones were to shift towards the poles, they would move into degraded, less fertile soils. There is little scope for counteracting this effect by means of even more agricultural technology, irrigation, and fertiliser. (orig.) [de

  10. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Becerra, Natali; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Beltrán-Paz, Ofelia; Blaz, Jazmín; Souza, Valeria; García-Oliva, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB), alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state.

  11. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natali Hernández-Becerra

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB, alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. Methods In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. Results The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. Discussion The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state.

  12. Ethnobiology 5: Interdisciplinarity in an Era of Rapid Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wolverton

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnobiology 5 stems from Eugene Hunn’s four phases of the history of ethnobiology and focuses on the relevance of ethnobiological research in the context of environmental and cultural change.  It refers to a contemporary phase of the field’s historical development.  In this paper, I argue that ethnobiology is preadapted to be a scholarly umbrella for a number of disciplines that concern human-environment interactions, suggesting that one goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to bridge traditional academic boundaries in order to broaden the community of ethnobiologists. Another goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to capitalize on and communicate the relevance of ethnobiological scholarship for solving problems related to contemporary environmental and cultural crises.  Indeed, ethnobiology is not a subfield of any traditional discipline and by the nature of its name bridges humanities, social science, and science.  Ethnobiology has always been interdisciplinary in terms of its subject matter, yet its community of scholars is relatively small compared to mission-driven disciplines, such as conservation biology.  Venues for publication and presentation of ethnobiological research, as well as how ethnobiologists portray their research, are critical to growing ethnobiology.

  13. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  14. Climate change reduces water availability for agriculture by decreasing non-evaporative irrigation losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Keyvan; Adam, Jennifer C.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Peters, R. Troy

    2018-06-01

    Irrigation efficiency plays an important role in agricultural productivity; it affects farm-scale water demand, and the partitioning of irrigation losses into evaporative and non-evaporative components. This partitioning determines return flow generation and thus affects water availability. Over the last two decades, hydrologic and agricultural research communities have significantly improved our understanding of the impacts of climate change on water availability and food productivity. However, the impacts of climate change on the efficiency of irrigation systems, particularly on the partitioning between evaporative and non-evaporative losses, have received little attention. In this study, we incorporated a process-based irrigation module into a coupled hydrologic/agricultural modeling framework (VIC-CropSyst). To understand how climate change may impact irrigation losses, we applied VIC-CropSyst over the Yakima River basin, an important agricultural region in Washington State, U.S. We compared the historical period of 1980-2010 to an ensemble of ten projections of climate for two future periods: 2030-2060 and 2060-2090. Results averaged over the watershed showed that a 9% increase in evaporative losses will be compensated by a reduction of non-evaporative losses. Therefore, overall changes in future efficiency are negligible (-0.4%) while the Evaporative Loss Ratio (ELR) (defined as the ratio of evaporative to non-evaporative irrigation losses) is enhanced by 10%. This higher ELR is associated with a reduction in return flows, thus negatively impacting downstream water availability. Results also indicate that the impact of climate change on irrigation losses depend on irrigation type and climate scenarios.

  15. Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elum, Z A; Modise, D M; Nhamo, G

    2017-02-01

    Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

  16. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2017-02-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  17. RURAL FARMERS’ PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CENTRAL AGRICULTURAL ZONE OF DELTA STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.U. Ofuoku

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Farmer perception of their environment is a factor of climate change. Adaptation to climate change requires farmers to realize that the climate has changed and they must identify useful adaptations and implement them. This study analyzed the per-ception of climate change among rural farmers in central agri-cultural zone of Delta State, Nigeria. Climate change studies often assume certain adaptations and minimal examination of how, when, why, and conditions under which adaptations usually take place in any economic and social systems. The study was conducted by survey method on 131 respondents using struc-tured interview schedule and questionnaire. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and linear regression model to test that education, gender, and farming experience influenced farmers’ perception of climate change. The results showed that the farmers were aware of climate change. The identified causes of climate change were ranging from intensified agriculture, population explosion, increased use of fossil fuel, loss of in-digenous know practice to gas flaring. The effects of climate change on crops and livestocks were also identified by the rural farmers. Many of the farmers adapted to climate change by planting trees, carrying out soil conservation practice, changing planting dates, using different crop varieties, installing fans in livestock pens, and applying irrigation. Almost half of them did not adapt to climate change. The linear regression analysis revealed that education, gender, and farming experience influ-enced farmers’ perception of climate change. The major barriers to adaptation to climate change included lack of information, lack of money, and inadequate land.

  18. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  19. Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air

  20. Automatic change detection in RapidEye data using the combined MAD and kernel MAF methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hecheltjen, Antje; Thonfeld, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The IR-MAD components show changes for a large part of the entire subset. Especially phenological changes in the agricultural fields surrounding the open pit are predominant. As opposed to this, kMAF components focus more on changes in the open-cast mine (and changes due to the two clouds...... and their shadows, not visible in the zoom). Ground data were available from bucket-wheel excavators on the extraction side (to the northwest in the open pit) in terms of elevation data for both dates. No ground data were available for changes due to backfill (southeastern part of the open pit) or changes due...

  1. Health impacts of rapid economic changes in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangcharoensathien, V; Harnvoravongchai, P; Pitayarangsarit, S; Kasemsup, V

    2000-09-01

    The economic crisis in Thailand in July 1997 had major social implications for unemployment, under employment, household income contraction, changing expenditure patterns, and child abandonment. The crisis increased poverty incidence by 1 million, of whom 54% were the ultra-poor. This paper explores and explains the short-term health impact of the crisis, using existing data and some special surveys and interviews for 2 years during 1998-99. The health impacts of the crisis are mixed, some being negative and some being positive. Household health expenditure reduced by 24% in real terms; among the poorer households, institutional care was replaced by self-medication. The pre-crisis rising trend in expenditure on alcohol and tobacco consumption was reversed. Immunization spending and coverage were sustained at a very high level after the crisis, but reports of increases in diphtheria and pertussis indicate declining programme quality. An increase in malaria, despite budget increases, had many causes but was mainly due to reduced programme effectiveness. STD incidence continued the pre-crisis downward trend. Rates of HIV risky sexual behaviour were higher among conscripts than other male workers, but in both groups there was lower condom use with casual partners. HIV serosurveillance showed a continuation of the pre-crisis downward trend among commercial sex workers (CSW, both brothel and non-brothel based), pregnant women and donated blood; this trend was slightly reversed among male STD patients and more among intravenous drug users. Condom coverage among brothel based CSW continued to increase to 97.5%, despite a 72% budget cut in free condom distribution. Poverty and lack of insurance coverage are two major determinants of absence of or inadequate antenatal care, and low birthweight. The Low Income Scheme could not adequately cover the poor but the voluntary Health Card Scheme played a health safety net role for maternal and child health. Low birthweight and

  2. Applicability of rapid and on-site measured enzyme activity for surface water quality monitoring in an agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadler, Philipp; Farnleitner, Andreas H.; Sommer, Regina; Kumpan, Monika; Zessner, Matthias

    2014-05-01

    For the near real time and on-site detection of microbiological fecal pollution of water, the measurement of beta-D- Glucuronidase (GLUC) enzymatic activity has been suggested as a surrogate parameter and has been already successfully operated for water quality monitoring of ground water resources (Ryzinska-Paier et al. 2014). Due to possible short measure intervals of three hours, this method has high potential as a water quality monitoring tool. While cultivation based standard determination takes more than one working day (Cabral 2010) the potential advantage of detecting the GLUC activity is the high temporal measuring resolution. Yet, there is still a big gap of knowledge on the fecal indication capacity of GLUC (specificity, sensitivity, persistence, etc.) in relation to potential pollution sources and catchment conditions (Cabral 2010, Ryzinska-Paier et al. 2014). Furthermore surface waters are a big challenge for automated detection devices in a technical point of view due to the high sediment load during event conditions. This presentation shows results gained form two years of monitoring in an experimental catchment (HOAL) dominated by agricultural land use. Two enzymatic measurement devices are operated parallel at the catchment outlet to test the reproducibility and precision of the method. Data from continuous GLUC monitoring under both base flow and event conditions is compared with reference samples analyzed by standardized laboratory methods for fecal pollution detection (e.g. ISO 16649-1, Colilert18). It is shown that rapid enzymatic on-site GLUC determination can successfully be operated from a technical point of view for surface water quality monitoring under the observed catchment conditions. The comparison of enzyme activity with microbiological standard analytics reveals distinct differences in the dynamic of the signals during event conditions. Cabral J. P. S. (2010) "Water Microbiology. Bacterial Pathogens and Water" International Journal of

  3. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

  4. What is needed to understand feedback mechanisms from agricultural and climate changes that can alter the hydrological system and the transport of sediments and agricultural chemicals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coupe, Richard; Payraudeau, Sylvain; Babcsányi, Izabella; Imfeld, Gwenaël

    2015-04-01

    Modern agriculture activities are constantly changing as producers try to produce a crop, keep their soils fertile, control pests, and prevent contamination of air and water resources. Because most of the world's arable land is already in production we must become more efficient if we are to feed and clothe the world's growing population as well as do this in a sustainable manner; leaving a legacy of fertile soil and clean water resources for our descendants. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of historical datasets and of developing new strategies to understand the effects of changing agricultural systems on the environment. Scientists who study agriculture and its effects on water must constantly adapt their strategies and evaluate how changing agricultural activities impact the environment. As well as understand from historical datasets on hydrology and agriculture how a changing climate or agricultural activity such as a change in tillage method might impact the processes that determine the movement of agricultural chemicals off of the target site. The 42.7 ha Hohrain (Rouffach, Alsace, France) vineyard experimental catchment offers several examples of how scientists have used historical data from this catchment to understand how the transport of agricultural chemicals may change due to a changing climate as well as how new strategies are developed for understanding the transport of agricultural chemicals. Runoff is a major process of pesticide transport from agricultural land to downstream aquatic ecosystems. The impact of rainfall characteristics on the transport of runoff-related pesticides is crucial to understanding how to prevent or minimize their movement now, but also in understanding how climate change might affect runoff. If we understand how rainfall characteristics affect the transport of pesticides, we can use climate change models to predict how those characteristics might change in the future and be better prepared for

  5. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario

    2015-01-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO 2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. (letter)

  6. Climate Changes and the Role of Recent Droughts on Agricultural Economy of Sistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISSA EBRAHIMZADEH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional economy is usually affected by the operation and interaction of environment and human beings in geographical spaces. Warm and dry areas create special economic conditions, which have particular functions, quite different from the characteristics of humid and cold hilly areas or those of the Mediterranean areas. The Sistan Region is located in South East of Iran. Until recent droughts (1999-2005, agriculture sector was the basis of all economic activities in Sistan area, a major share of rural as well as urban income came directly and indirectly from agricultural activities. In accordance with the latest census before the drought period (1996, about 55 percent of the rural population directly depended on the agriculture sector for their income and employment. In addition, almost 24 percent of rural population was depended to cottage and rural industries for their employments. In urban areas, 70 percent of population was linked to service sector as a source of employment. The results of this research show that the environmental changes resulting from drought in Sistan area have had deep impacts on the socio-economic factors in the region. It is clearer in the Hamoon Lake area, which, before the onset drought, had produced crops like fodders, mat, bird meat and fish. The livestock sector also suffered to a great extent. Out of the total of 1.6 million livestock units in the area, more than 0.5 million remained in the production cycle nowadays. The production of these crops reduced to zero with drought. The total direct loss resulted from the drought amounts to 14,057,332 million Rails or 1,561 billion US$. To sum up, the environmental changes resulting from drought caused more than 80 percent of agricultural and livestock activities in the region come to halt, which, in turn, due to a reduced income multiplier effect of agriculture sector resulted in greater damage to socio-economic factors in rural, as well as in urban areas.

  7. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  8. Change of trade balance analysis in agricultural and food products with using of index pyramidal system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Záboj

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with analysis of the trade balance in Czech Republic in the field of agricultural and food products. The main goal is to determine the influence of analytical indicators; in this case these are changes of quantity and average unit price of export and import; over the synthetic indicator – change of trade balance. Next step of this analysis is to calculate the portions of change of inputs volume and change of total productivity of inputs over the change of export caused by change of quantity. To fulfill this aim it is suitable to use methods for pyramidal decomposition of indicators – chain substitution, logarithmic and functional methods. These methods are compared and the results are interpreted.

  9. Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

  10. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability: The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

    OpenAIRE

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2011-01-01

    Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrate adaptive human agency. Richards’ concept of ‘agriculture as performance’ is useful in counterbalancing the modelling approach to adaptation because it highlights how adaptive processes and techno...

  11. The changing roles of science in managing Australian droughts: An agricultural perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Howden; Serena Schroeter; Steven Crimp; Ivan Hanigan

    2014-01-01

    As the driest inhabited continent with a highly variable climate, Australia has had a long and evolving history of drought management in agriculture. This paper analyses the changing roles of science in the management of climate risk and uncertainty and how this may continue into the future. Initially science had a role in documenting the underlying nature of Australia׳s climate, and later broadening the understanding around the drivers of variability so as to provide useful climate forecasts...

  12. Climate change and Australia’s comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Todd; Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z.

    2010-01-01

    Australia has long been a major exporter of the products of broadacre agriculture, a production system well suited to the economic and climatic conditions of the country. According to the conventional wisdom, Australia holds a comparative advantage in these products, among which wheat and livestock products predominate. However, the future validity of this proposition is sensitive to the projected impacts of climate change. This paper develops a framework with which to quantify the future pat...

  13. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  14. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  15. Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Joshua; Glotter, Michael; Ruane, Alex C.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Smith, Leonard A.; Foster, Ian

    2017-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  16. Characterizing agricultural impacts of recent large-scale US droughts and changing technology and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, Joshua [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States); Glotter, Michael [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences; Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Boote, Kenneth J. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Hatfield, Jerry L. [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Ames, IA (United States). National Lab. for Agriculture and the Environment; Jones, James W. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural and Biological Engineering Dept.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Smith, Leonard A. [London School of Economics, London (United Kingdom). Center for Analysis of Time Series; Foster, Ian [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States). Computation Inst.; Computation Inst.; Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model-based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

  17. Quantifying gross vs. net agricultural land use change in Great Britain using the Integrated Administration and Control System

    OpenAIRE

    Tomlinson, Samuel J.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Levy, Peter E.; Thomson, Amanda M.; Moxley, Janet

    2018-01-01

    Land use change has impacts upon many natural processes, and is one of the key measures of anthropogenic disturbance on ecosystems. Agricultural land covers 70% of Great Britain's (GB) land surface and annually undergoes disturbance and change through farming practices such as crop rotation, ploughing and the planting and subsequent logging of forestry. It is important to quantify how much of GB's agricultural land undergoes such changes and what those changes are at an annual temporal resolu...

  18. Induced intensification: agricultural change in Bangladesh with implications for Malthus and Boserup.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, B L; Ali, A M

    1996-12-10

    Bangladesh is dominated by a small-holder agrarian economy under extreme stress. Production shortfalls, increasing economic polarization, and chronic malnutrition are persistent, but major famine has been diverted in part by significant growth in agriculture. This recent history is open to both Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations-a history we explore here through a test of the induced intensification thesis of agricultural change. This thesis, framed by variations in the behavior of small-holders, has grown from a simple demand-production relationship to a consideration of the mediating influences on that relationship. The induced intensification thesis is reviewed and tested for 265 households in 6 villages in Bangladesh from 1950-1986. A time-series analysis of an induced intensification model provides relatively high levels of explained variance in cropping intensity (frequency and land productivity) and also indicates the relative impacts of household class, environment, and cropping strategies. On average, the small-holders in question kept pace with the demands on production, although important class and village variations were evident and the proportion of landless households increased. These results, coupled with evidence that agricultural growth involved intensification thresholds, provide clues about Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations of Bangladesh, and suggest that small-holder agriculture there is likely to continue on a "muted" path of growth.

  19. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  20. Quantifying the impacts of agricultural management and climate change on soil organic carbon changes in the uplands of Eastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Liming; Wang, Guangxiang; Zheng, Qiaofeng; Liu, Yaling; Yu, Dongsheng; Shi, Xuezheng; Xing, Shihe; Chen, Hanyue; Fan, Xieyu

    2017-12-01

    In order to implement optimal farming practices for increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) in agro-ecosystems, there is a need for understanding how management practices and climate change alter SOC levels. This study quantified the influence of agricultural management practices and climatic factors on SOC changes in Eastern China’s upland-crop fields in northern Jiangsu Province for the period of 2010–2039, by using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC, version 9.5) model. We utilized the currently most detailed soil database, which is at a scale of 1:50,000, containing 17,024 soil polygons derived from 983 upland soil profiles. Across all the examined scenarios of agricultural management practices, our results show that the carbon sequestration potential in the upper layer soil (0–50 cm) of the study area varied from 6.93 to 155.11 Tg C during 2010–2039, with an average rate of 59 to 1317 kg C ha-1 year-1. As a promising alternative, the combined scenario of crop residue return rate of 50% and farmyard manure incorporation rate of 50% is recommended for agricultural management practice in this region. Meanwhile, climate conditions play a significant role in the annual SOC changes as well. Air temperature increase of 2–4 °C leads to 3.41–7.51 Tg C decrease in SOC under conventional management for the entire study region. Decreasing or increasing precipitation by 20% would increase 0.57 Tg C or decrease 1.09 Tg C under the conventional management scenario, respectively. Additionally, among all the soil groups, the fluvo-aquic soils have the highest C sequestration rate in most scenarios. Our findings could be used to inform optimal agricultural management toward climate mitigation.

  1. Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

    2014-10-01

    We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

  2. Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, Misha; Ponisio, Lauren C; Kremen, Claire; Thorp, Robbin W; Roderick, George K

    2016-03-01

    Urbanization and agricultural intensification of landscapes are important drivers of global change, which in turn have direct impacts on local ecological communities leading to shifts in species distributions and interactions. Here, we illustrate how human-altered landscapes, with novel ornamental and crop plant communities, result not only in changes to local community diversity of floral-dependent species, but also in shifts in seasonal abundance of bee pollinators. Three years of data on the spatio-temporal distributions of 91 bee species show that seasonal patterns of abundance and species richness in human-altered landscapes varied significantly less compared to natural habitats in which floral resources are relatively scarce in the dry summer months. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic environmental changes in urban and agricultural systems, here mediated through changes in plant resources and water inputs, can alter the temporal dynamics of pollinators that depend on them. Changes in phenology of interactions can be an important, though frequently overlooked, mechanism of global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    deBeurs, K.M.; Brown, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required

  4. Land-use change affects water recycling in Brazil's last agricultural frontier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spera, Stephanie A; Galford, Gillian L; Coe, Michael T; Macedo, Marcia N; Mustard, John F

    2016-10-01

    Historically, conservation-oriented research and policy in Brazil have focused on Amazon deforestation, but a majority of Brazil's deforestation and agricultural expansion has occurred in the neighboring Cerrado biome, a biodiversity hotspot comprised of dry forests, woodland savannas, and grasslands. Resilience of rainfed agriculture in both biomes likely depends on water recycling in undisturbed Cerrado vegetation; yet little is known about how changes in land-use and land-cover affect regional climate feedbacks in the Cerrado. We used remote sensing techniques to map land-use change across the Cerrado from 2003 to 2013. During this period, cropland agriculture more than doubled in area from 1.2 to 2.5 million ha, with 74% of new croplands sourced from previously intact Cerrado vegetation. We find that these changes have decreased the amount of water recycled to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration (ET) each year. In 2013 alone, cropland areas recycled 14 km(3) less (-3%) water than if the land cover had been native Cerrado vegetation. ET from single-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans) is less than from natural vegetation in all years, except in the months of January and February, the height of the growing season. In double-cropping systems (e.g., soybeans followed by corn), ET is similar to or greater than natural vegetation throughout a majority of the wet season (December-May). As intensification and extensification of agricultural production continue in the region, the impacts on the water cycle and opportunities for mitigation warrant consideration. For example, if an environmental goal is to minimize impacts on the water cycle, double cropping (intensification) might be emphasized over extensification to maintain a landscape that behaves more akin to the natural system. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

    2010-09-02

    China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

  6. Effects of institutional changes on land use: agricultural land abandonment during the transition from state-command to market-driven economies in post-Soviet Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prishchepov, Alexander V; Müller, Daniel; Radeloff, Volker C; Baumann, Matthias; Kuemmerle, Tobias

    2012-01-01

    Institutional settings play a key role in shaping land cover and land use. Our goal was to understand the effects of institutional changes on agricultural land abandonment in different countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union after the collapse of socialism. We studied ∼273 800 km 2 (eight Landsat footprints) within one agro-ecological zone stretching across Poland, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania and European Russia. Multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM + satellite images centered on 1990 (the end of socialism) and 2000 (one decade after the end of socialism) were used to classify agricultural land abandonment using support vector machines. The results revealed marked differences in the abandonment rates between countries. The highest rates of land abandonment were observed in Latvia (42% of all agricultural land in 1990 was abandoned by 2000), followed by Russia (31%), Lithuania (28%), Poland (14%) and Belarus (13%). Cross-border comparisons revealed striking differences; for example, in the Belarus–Russia cross-border area there was a great difference between the rates of abandonment of the two countries (10% versus 47% of abandonment). Our results highlight the importance of institutions and policies for land-use trajectories and demonstrate that radically different combinations of institutional change of strong institutions during the transition can reduce the rate of agricultural land abandonment (e.g., in Belarus and in Poland). Inversely, our results demonstrate higher abandonment rates for countries where the institutions that regulate land use changed and where the institutions took more time to establish (e.g., Latvia, Lithuania and Russia). Better knowledge regarding the effects of such broad-scale change is essential for understanding land-use change and for designing effective land-use policies. This information is particularly relevant for Northern Eurasia, where rapid land-use change offers vast opportunities for carbon balance and

  7. How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Wen-bin; YU Qiang-yi; Verburg H Peter; YOU Liang-zhi; YANG Peng; TANG Hua-jun

    2014-01-01

    To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

  8. Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenchao; Lowe, Scott E.; Adams, Richard M.

    2014-12-01

    We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

  9. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Colorado Agriculture Using an Equilibrium Displacement Mathematical Programming Model

    OpenAIRE

    Fathelrahman, Eihab; Davies, Amalia; Davies, Stephen; Pritchett, James

    2014-01-01

    This research models selected impacts of climate change on Colorado agriculture several decades in the future, using an Economic Displacement Mathematical Programming model. The agricultural economy in Colorado is dominated by livestock, which accounts for 67% of total receipts. Crops, including feed grains and forages, account for the remainder. Most agriculture is based on irrigated production, which depends on both groundwater, especially from the Ogallala aquifer, and surface water that c...

  10. Climate Change for Agriculture, Forest Cover and 3d Urban Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapoor, M.; Bassir, D.

    2014-11-01

    This research demonstrates the important role of the remote sensing in finding out the different parameters behind the agricultural crop change, forest cover and urban 3D models. Standalone software is developed to view and analysis the different factors effecting the change in crop productions. Open-source libraries from the Open Source Geospatial Foundation have been used for the development of the shape-file viewer. Software can be used to get the attribute information, scale, zoom in/out and pan the shapefiles. Environmental changes due to pollution and population that are increasing the urbanisation and decreasing the forest cover on the earth. Satellite imagery such as Landsat 5(1984) to Landsat TRIS/8 (2014), Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and NDVI are used to analyse the different parameters that are effecting the agricultural crop production change and forest change. It is advisable for the development of good quality of NDVI and forest cover maps to use data collected from the same processing methods for the complete region. Management practices have been developed from the analysed data for the betterment of the crop and saving the forest cover

  11. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  12. Land Tenure as a Factor Underlying Agricultural Landscape Changes in Europe: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krčílková Š.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Land tenure is generally considered to be an important factor affecting farming, landscape, and rural development. This paper reviews selected case studies to identify how land tenure influences agricultural landscape changes in Europe. We identified how land tenure information was transformed into variables, grouping these variables into general thematic categories: (1 land rights variables based on references to the type of stakeholders and duration of land occupancy, (2 land structure variables describing general land structure, and (3 behavioural variables dependent on stakeholders’ attitudes, perceptions, and personal values. Each thematic category can be defined on three spatial levels: parcel or production block, stakeholder, and landscape. The results show that the tenure factor is not frequently included into landscape-change studies. When a land tenure factor was part of a given study, it either played a minor role among other drivers of landscape change or, if it influenced significant landscape changes, it had only locally specific effects. Moreover, there were studies with contradictory results and so it is difficult to generalize specific findings. Nevertheless, land tenure is frequently discussed within landscape-change research in relation to land abandonment as well as green services and their connection with the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy.

  13. Impacts of Biofuel-Induced Agricultural Land Use Changes on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Z.; Zheng, H.

    2015-12-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin (RRNB), an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use changes on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%. Potential impacts of the future biofuel crop scenarios on watershed hydrology and water quality in the RRNB were also simulated through integrated economic-hydrologic modeling.

  14. Simulating The Change In Agricultural Fruit Patterns In The Context of River Basin Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloecking, B.; Laue, K.; Stroebl, B.

    A new concept has been developed for the integrated analysis of impacts of Global Change and direct human activities on the environment and the society in mesoscale river basins. The main steps of this approach are: (1) Developing a set of regional scenarios of change considering expected changes in climate, economic, demographic and social development, (2) Identification of indicators of sustainability for the impact assessment, (3) Impact analysis of the defined scenarios of development, (4) Evalu- ation of the different scenarios on the basis of the impact analysis to elaborate new stategies in regional development. All steps include consultations with actors and stakeholders. The concept is applied in the western part of Thuringia (7.500 km2), covering the basin of the Unstrut river. This part of the German Elbe river basin is highly suited for food production under the present conditions. Therefore it is a good site for vulnerability studies focused on agriculture. The development of agricultural land-use scenarios for the Unstrut region will be done in form of a bottom-up approach based on adaptation reactions of example farms within the expected boundary condi- tions such as the global food markets and other global economic trends as well as in- ternational agreements. Representing the present conditions in Thuringia, a referential land-use scenario was developed, assuming a complete realisation of the AGENDA 2000 resolutions. Impacts of changed land use in combination with climate change scenarios on plant production and on availability and quality of water are been inves- tigated with the help of a spatial distributed river basin model. A GIS-based approach was developed to locate the spatially not explicit land use scenarios. This approach allows to reproduce the agricultural fruit patterns of a region in a river basin model without taking into account the real field boundaries. First simulation results for the referential climate and land-use scenario

  15. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Kimambo, A.; Rwehumbiza, F.

    2011-08-15

    There is limited research on bottom-up adaptation economics in general – and climate change adaptation in animal agriculture in particular – to guide adaptation actions. This study therefore tries to address costing and planning of adaptation to climate change in animal agriculture in Tanzania. The study adopted a bottom-up costing of adaptation actions that were identified using a case study approach. A questionnaire interview involving a sample of pastoralists and agro-pastoralist was conducted to identify and quantify impacts due to climate change, and currently-used adaptation actions and costs, in some selected areas in Same, Chamwino and Mvomero districts. This was followed by key informants' interviews at district and national level to get insights on developmental and climate change policies and actions, and their costs. A mini-workshop was later conducted to establish priority adaptation actions and their costs. The workshop involved local-, district- and national-level stakeholders. A country feedback workshop was then held to present initial findings and get additional inputs from experts and other stakeholders. The case study findings showed that a changing climate has resulted in environmental shocks and extreme events such as drought, excessive rains, floods and high temperatures, which have caused inadequate supply of water and pasture, increases in disease incidences, and death of animals. It is probable that in the future such events are likely to have even more serious repercussions and therefore there is a compelling need to plan mitigation measures. Through this study, various adaptation actions envisioned to be capable of fostering resilience have been identified and categorised as addressing three levels: development deficit, climate variability, or climate change-related extremes and shocks. Current annual adaptation costs were estimated at 226.7 M US$ and up to 3,987.5 M US$ by 2030; some of these costs are already being incurred by

  16. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S; Mutabazi, K; Kimambo, A; Rwehumbiza, F

    2011-08-15

    There is limited research on bottom-up adaptation economics in general – and climate change adaptation in animal agriculture in particular – to guide adaptation actions. This study therefore tries to address costing and planning of adaptation to climate change in animal agriculture in Tanzania. The study adopted a bottom-up costing of adaptation actions that were identified using a case study approach. A questionnaire interview involving a sample of pastoralists and agro-pastoralist was conducted to identify and quantify impacts due to climate change, and currently-used adaptation actions and costs, in some selected areas in Same, Chamwino and Mvomero districts. This was followed by key informants' interviews at district and national level to get insights on developmental and climate change policies and actions, and their costs. A mini-workshop was later conducted to establish priority adaptation actions and their costs. The workshop involved local-, district- and national-level stakeholders. A country feedback workshop was then held to present initial findings and get additional inputs from experts and other stakeholders. The case study findings showed that a changing climate has resulted in environmental shocks and extreme events such as drought, excessive rains, floods and high temperatures, which have caused inadequate supply of water and pasture, increases in disease incidences, and death of animals. It is probable that in the future such events are likely to have even more serious repercussions and therefore there is a compelling need to plan mitigation measures. Through this study, various adaptation actions envisioned to be capable of fostering resilience have been identified and categorised as addressing three levels: development deficit, climate variability, or climate change-related extremes and shocks. Current annual adaptation costs were estimated at 226.7 M US$ and up to 3,987.5 M US$ by 2030; some of these costs are already being incurred by

  17. Perceptions of Socio-Ecological Changes and Their Implications on Changes in Farming Practises and Agricultural Land Uses in the Savannahs of Northeast Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kojo Boateng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the perceptions of local farming households in the savannahs of northeast Ghana about the patterns of ecological and social changes happening around them over the years. It then unpacks how those perceptions are influencing farming practices and agricultural land use changes. Theoretical and empirical understandings of the value of local resource users’ perceptual judgements about changes in their socio-ecological environment and how they respond to those changes have far-reaching implications for design of agricultural development and sustainable land management policies. Consideration of local perceptions offers more informed basis to design and implement agricultural development policies in ways that encourage active local participation, sustainable livelihoods development, and responsiveness to changing conditions. This departs from current conventional implementation systems, which are usually top-down and based on technical and political aspects of agricultural land management, but do not necessarily comprehend processes influencing the agency of local communities in shaping various agricultural land use outcomes.

  18. Monitoring changes in soil carbon resulting from intensive production, a non-traditional agricultural methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dwyer, Brian P.

    2013-03-01

    New Mexico State University and a group of New Mexico farmers are evaluating an innovative agricultural technique they call Intensive Production (IP). In contrast to conventional agricultural practice, IP uses intercropping, green fallowing, application of soil amendments and soil microbial inocula to sequester carbon as plant biomass, resulting in improved soil quality. Sandia National Laboratories role was to identify a non-invasive, cost effective technology to monitor soil carbon changes. A technological review indicated that Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) best met the farmers objectives. Sandia partnered with Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to analyze farmers test plots using a portable LIBS developed at LANL. Real-time LIBS field sample analysis was conducted and grab samples were collected for laboratory comparison. The field and laboratory results correlated well implying the strong potential for LIBS as an economical field scale analytical tool for analysis of elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphate.

  19. Ammonia Emissions from the Agriculture Sector of Argentina in a Context of Changing Technologies and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawidowski, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is a key sector of the Argentinean economy, accounting for 6 to 8 5% of the GDP in the last ten years. Argentina switched in the 90´s from an articulated co-evolution between extensive livestock and crop farming, with annual rotation of crops and livestock, to intensive decoupled practices. Under these new production schemes, ecosystems were supplied with more nutrients, generating increasing levels of wastes. Other changes have also occurred, associated with the shift of the agricultural frontier and the consequent reduction in the cattle stock. In addition, changes related to climate through the strong increase in rainfall in the 80s and 90s in the west Pampas, helped to boost agricultural development. The agriculture sector accounts for practically all NH3 emissions in Argentina, however no inventory has been thus far available. To bridge this gap and particularly to have accurate input information to run coupled atmospheric chemistry models for secondary inorganic aerosols, we estimated 2000-2012 NH3 emissions, both at national and spatially disaggregated levels. Of particular interest for us was also temporal disaggregation as crops growing and temperature exhibit strong seasonal variability. As no NH3 inventory was available we also estimated related N2O emissions to verify our estimates with those of national GHG emission inventory (NEI). National NH3 emissions in 2012 amounted to 309.9 Gg, use of fertilizers accounted for 43.6%, manure management 18,9%, manure in pasture 36,0% and agricultural waste burning 1.5%. Our N2O estimates are in good agreement with the GHG-NEI. NH3 estimates in the EDGAR database for 2008 are 84.0% higher than ours for this year, and exhibit more significant differences per category, namely 113,6% higher for use of fertilizers and about 500% higher for agricultural waste burning. Urea dominates national NH3 emissions, accounting for 32,8% of the total and its use for wheat and corn crops dominates the trend.

  20. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  1. Long-term culture change related to rapid response system implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Jennifer; Johansson, Anna; Lennes, Inga; Hsu, Douglas; Tess, Anjala; Howell, Michael

    2014-12-01

    Increasing attention to patient safety in training hospitals may come at the expense of trainee autonomy and professional growth. This study sought to examine changes in medical trainees' self-reported behaviour after the institution-wide implementation of a rapid response system. We conducted a two-point cross-sectional survey of medical trainees in 2006, during the implementation of a rapid response system, and in 2010, in a single academic medical centre. A novel instrument was used to measure trainee likelihood of calling for supervisory assistance, perception of autonomy, and comfort in managing decompensating patients. Non-parametric tests to assess for change were used and year of training was evaluated as an effect modifier. Response rates were 38% in 2006 and 70% in 2010. After 5 years of the full implementation of the rapid response system, residents were significantly more likely to report calling their attending physicians for assistance (rising from 40% to 65% of relevant situations; p autonomy at 5 years after the implementation of the rapid response system. These changes were mirrored in the actual use of the rapid response system, which increased by 41% during the 5-year period after adjustment for patient volume (p < 0.0001). A primary team-focused implementation of a rapid response system was associated with durable changes in resident physicians' reported behaviour, including increased comfort with involving more experienced physicians and managing unstable patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Rapid changes in the range limits of Scots pine 4000 years ago

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gear, A.J.; Huntley, B.

    1991-01-01

    Paleoecological data provide estimates of response rates to past climate changes. Fossil Pinus sylvestris stumps in far northern Scotland demonstrate former presence of pine trees where conventional pollen evidence of pine forests is lacking. Radiocarbon, dendrochronological, and fine temporal-resolution palynological data show that pine forest were present for about four centuries some 4,000 years ago; the forests expanded and then retreated rapidly some 70 to 80 kilometers. Despite the rapidity of this response to climate change, it occurred at rates slower by an order of magnitude than those necessary to maintain equilibrium with forecast climate changes attributed to the greenhouse effect

  3. Understanding rapid theoretical change in particle physics: a month-by-month co-citation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sullivan, D.; Koester, D.; White, D.H.; Kern, R.

    1979-01-01

    While co-citation analysis has proved a powerful tool in the study of changes in intellectual foci in science, no one has ever used the technique to study very rapid changes in the theoretical structure of a scientific field. This paper presents month-by-month co-citation analyses of key phases in the weak-electromagnetic unification research program within particle physics, and shows that these analyses capture and illuminate very rapid intellectual changes. These data provide yet another illustration of the utility of co-citation analysis for understanding the history of science. 8 figures

  4. Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Frances C.

    1999-01-01

    The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

  5. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  6. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pugh, T A M; Arneth, A; Bayer, A D; Olin, S; Lindeskog, M; Schurgers, G; Ahlström, A; Klein Goldewijk, K

    2015-01-01

    It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (S T ) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO 2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L ; S T  = S L  − E LUC ). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative E LUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present-day S T , or an underestimation of S L , of up to 1.0 Pg C a −1 . Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but were found to have little influence on E LUC . (letter)

  7. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  8. Monitoring the Impact of Climate Change on Soil Salinity in Agricultural Areas Using Ground and Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climatic patterns have had dramatic influence on agricultural areas worldwide, particularly in irrigated arid-zone agricultural areas subjected to recurring drought, such as California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), or areas receiving above average rainfall for a decade or more, such as Minn...

  9. Future state of the climate change, mitigation and development of sustainable agriculture in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazandjiev, V.; Georgieva, V.; Moteva, M.; Marinova, T.; Dimitrov, P.

    2010-09-01

    The farming is one of the most important branches that bring the increase to the gross internal production in Bulgaria. At the same time, the agriculture is the only branch, as in home, so in world scale in which the made as well direct production spending and investing regenerating (or not) only in the frameworks to one vegetative season. In addition on this, development of the intensive farming without using the most advanced technologies such as irrigation, automation, selection - for obtaining stable cultivars and hybrids, permanent weather monitoring and agroclimatic zoning and integrated and biochemical protection to the cultures and plantations had not possible. Analysis of long-term meteorological data from different regions shows clear tendencies to warming and drying for the period of contemporary climate (1971-2000) as well in Bulgaria. Hydro-meteorological conditions in the country are worsened. The most entire estimate is made from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 2007. Most of authors proven that the last decades are really warmest for last century, even for the entire period of the most instrumental observations. The causes for global warming was long time debatable, but the last investigations prove it anthropogenetic derive. The main goal of the paper is framing in conditions of the expected climate changes in our country for period 2020-2050-2070 and the most likely impacts on the agriculture with inspection padding to the consequences in them and making physical conditions for development of proof farming in production regions of the country. By the means of the systematized database of meteorological and agrometeorological data which we have at disposition for the period of this survey (1971-2000); Provide assignment of the expected climatic changes according to the scenarios in the centers for observing and investigations of climatic changes in Europe, US., Canada and Australia (ECHAM 4, HadCM 2, CGCM 1, CSIRO-MK2 Bs and

  10. Downstream mixing of sediment and tracers in agricultural catchments: Evidence of changing sediment sources and fluvial processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, Timothy; Wethered, Adam; Smith, Hugh; Heijnis, Henk

    2014-05-01

    Land clearance, soil tillage and grazing in agricultural catchments have liberated sediment and altered hydrological connectivity between hillslopes and channels, leading to increased sediment availability, mobilisation and delivery to rivers. The type and amount of sediment supplied to rivers is critical for fluvial geomorphology and aquatic ecosystem health. Contemporary sediment dynamics are routinely investigated using environmental radionuclides such as caesium-137 (Cs-137) and excess lead-210 (Pb-210ex), which can provide information regarding sediment source types and fluvial processes if sediment sources can be distinguished from one another and mixing models applied to representative samples. However, downstream transport, mixing and dilution of radionuclide-labelled sediment (especially from sources with low initial concentrations) can obliterate the tracer signal; sometimes before anything of geomorphological importance happens in the catchment. Can these findings be used as evidence of sediment source variations and fluvial processes when the limits of detection (of Cs-137 in particular) are being exceeded so rapidly downstream? Sediment sources and downstream sediment dynamics were investigated in Coolbaggie Creek, a major supplier of sediment to the Macquarie River in an agricultural catchment with temperate to semi-arid climate in Australia. Radionuclides were used to discriminate between the banks and gullies (Cs-137 1.45 +/- 0.47 Bq/kg; Pb-210ex 4.67 +/- 1.93 Bq/kg). Within the trunk stream, suspended sediment, organic matter and Cs-137 and Pb-210ex concentrations declined downstream. Results from a mixing model suggest that agricultural topsoils account for 95% of fine sediment entering the channel in the upper reach (200 m2) downstream, with channel expansion and gullies contributing fine sediment to the system. A lack of topsoil being supplied to the channel suggests minimal lateral connectivity between the catchment and the trunk stream in all

  11. Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Mehan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

  12. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  13. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

  14. Modelling the Impact of Land Use Change on Water Quality in Agricultural Catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnes, P. J.; Heathwaite, A. L.

    1997-03-01

    Export coefficient modelling was used to model the impact of agriculture on nitrogen and phosphorus loading on the surface waters of two contrasting agricultural catchments. The model was originally developed for the Windrush catchment where the highly reactive Jurassic limestone aquifer underlying the catchment is well connected to the surface drainage network, allowing the system to be modelled using uniform export coefficients for each nutrient source in the catchment, regardless of proximity to the surface drainage network. In the Slapton catchment, the hydrological pathways are dominated by surface and lateral shallow subsurface flow, requiring modification of the export coefficient model to incorporate a distance-decay component in the export coefficients. The modified model was calibrated against observed total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads delivered to Slapton Ley from inflowing streams in its catchment. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to isolate the key controls on nutrient export in the modified model. The model was validated against long-term records of water quality, and was found to be accurate in its predictions and sensitive to both temporal and spatial changes in agricultural practice in the catchment. The model was then used to forecast the potential reduction in nutrient loading on Slapton Ley associated with a range of catchment management strategies. The best practicable environmental option (BPEO) was found to be spatial redistribution of high nutrient export risk sources to areas of the catchment with the greatest intrinsic nutrient retention capacity.

  15. Changes in Agricultural Markets in Poland following its Accession to the European Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Czyżewski Andrzej

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to determine the most significant tendencies and changes observed in Poland’s core markets of agricultural products, which occurred during the period preceding Poland’s accession to the European Union (1994-2003 and after the accession (2004-2013. The key markets of agricultural products include markets with the largest value of commodity production during the analysed period, such as cereals, potatoes, sugar beet, rapeseed, fruit, vegetables, pork, beef and poultry, cows’ milks and eggs. The development of domestic production, consumption and real purchasing prices were observed and compared in order to achieve the main objective. The research was preceded by the characterisation of macroeconomic and resource conditionalities of agricultural production as well as the trade balance of the Polish agri-food sector. On the basis of the conducted studies, there were singled out three groups of markets in which the situation during the period following Poland’s accession to the EU developed in a similar way.

  16. The potential and sustainability of agricultural land use in a changing ecosystem in southern Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunziker, Matthias; Caviezel, Chatrina; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

    2015-04-01

    . Fredskild B (1988) Agriculture in a marginal area - South Greenland from the Norse landnam (985 A.D.) to the resent (1985 A.D.). In: Birks HH, Birks HJB, Kaland PE et al. (eds) The Cultural Landscape - Past, Present and Future, Cambridge University Press, pp. 381-393. Greenland Agriculture Advisory Board (2009). Available at: http://www.nunalerineq.gl/english/landbrug/index-landbrug.htm Masson-Delmotte, V., D. Swingedouw, A. Landais, M. S. Seidenkrantz, E. Gauthier, V. Bichet, C. Massa, B. Perren, V. Jomelli, and G. Adalgeirsdottir. 2012. "Greenland Climate Change: From the Past to the Future." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.186/full. Normand, Signe, Christophe Randin, Ralf Ohlemüller, Christian Bay, Toke T. Høye, Erik D. Kjær, Christian Körner, et al. 2013. "A Greener Greenland? Climatic Potential and Long-Term Constraints on Future Expansions of Trees and Shrubs." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368 (1624) (August 19): 20120479. doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0479. Perren, B., B, Massa, C., Bichet, V., Gauthier, E., Mathieu, O., Petit, C., Richard, H. 2012. A paleoecological perspective on 1450 years of human impacts from a lake in southern Greenland. The Holocene, 22 (9), pp. 1025-1034.

  17. Crop Management as an Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Early Modern Era: A Comparative Study of Eastern and Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Pei

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Effective adaptation determines agricultural vulnerability to climate change, especially in the pre-industrial era. Crop management as an agricultural adaptation to climate change in recent human history, however, has rarely been systematically evaluated. Using Europe as our study area, we statistically compared yield ratio of wheat, rye, barley, and oats (an important performance indicator of an agrarian economy between Eastern and Western Europe in AD 1500–1800. In particular, a statistical comparison was made of crop yield ratio in the two regions during the warm agricultural recovery period AD 1700–1800. The general trend of crop yield in Eastern and Western Europe basically followed the alternation of climatic epochs, in which the extreme cooling period in AD 1560–1660 drastically reduced the crop yield ratio. The yield ratio of rye in Eastern and Western Europe was very similar throughout the entire study period. However, the yield ratio of wheat, barley, and oats showed different patterns in the two regions and increased drastically in Western Europe in the warm agricultural recovery period, which might have contributed to rapid socio-economic development in Western Europe and eventually the East–West Divide in Europe in the following centuries.

  18. EARLY DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE AN ISRAELI CASE STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    N. Kliot [Department of Geography and Environment Studies University of Haifa, Haifa (Israel)

    2008-09-30

    According to moderate I.P.C.C. scenarios, within the coming 100 years the temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by an average of 3.3 C in the summer and 2.8 C in the winter. It is expected that heat waves will increase in intensity and frequency. It is also expected that the annual rainfall will be reduced, there will be fewer rainy days and rise in the frequency of extreme rainfall event. Also, frequency of extreme whether events is expected to rise. The difficulties which face Israeli farming which is technologically a very advanced one, are: first, water stress - shortage in water resources and deterioration in their quality; second, impacts on crops and various livestock and poultry branches. Generally, agricultural long term planning will have to plan for replacing many fruit trees which need cool winter (apples, pears, peaches, cherries - for example) by crops which will be better adapted to heat and dry weather. It is expected that the higher temperatures will sustain more diseases of plants, crops and orchards. Field crops which depend on winter precipitation will be particularly effected by climatic changes. Some, such cotton will require supplemental irrigation. All field crops will be subjected to increased soil erosion. Studies which were conducted in Israel estimated that the future damages to agriculture as a result of water shortages as ranging between $101-$208 million. The income of farmers may drop by 20%. One of the coping methods is a system of insurance in most of the agricultural branches and a special fund to compensate wheat farmers for frequent droughts. The various difficulties and adaptation mechanisms (such as smart agriculture, or complete green house farming systems) will be presented.

  19. Changes in food processing and occlusal dental wear during the early agricultural period in northwest Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, James T

    2008-01-01

    Crown dimensions and occlusal surface wear rate and wear plane were evaluated using paired first and second mandibular molars from a sample of 84 Early Agricultural period (1600 B.C.-A.D. 200) skeletons from northwest Mexico. Although this period represents a major shift in subsistence strategies in the Sonoran Desert, from food-foraging to agriculture, archaeological and dental pathology studies have identified this period as one of relative dietary stability. It was therefore predicted that very little variation in occlusal wear would have occurred between the early phase (San Pedro: 1600-800 B.C.) and late phase (Cienega: 800 B.C.-A.D. 200). Comparison of crown diameters identified some phenotypic differences between sexes but not between archaeological phases. Molar occlusal surfaces were then divided into four quadrants, and wear scores recorded for each quadrant. Principle axis analysis was performed between total wear scores of paired, adjacent first and second mandibular molars to assess rate and occlusal wear plane over time. The analysis demonstrated that both wear rate and wear plane increased from the early to the late phase of the Early Agricultural period. These results indicate that although diet may have indeed remained stable during this period in the Sonoran Desert increases in the rate of wear and wear plane may reflect changes in food-processing techniques. It is suggested that more intensive processing of agricultural products during the Cienega phase simultaneously softened the diet to create more tooth-contact wear and introduced more grit to cause faster and more angled wear on the molar occlusal surfaces. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobell, David B; Burke, Marshall B

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of climate change impacts are often characterized by large uncertainties that reflect ignorance of many physical, biological, and socio-economic processes, and which hamper efforts to anticipate and adapt to climate change. A key to reducing these uncertainties is improved understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors. We evaluated uncertainties for projections of climate change impacts on crop production for 94 crop-region combinations that account for the bulk of calories consumed by malnourished populations. Specifically, we focused on the relative contributions of four factors: climate model projections of future temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivities of crops to temperature and precipitation changes. Surprisingly, uncertainties related to temperature represented a greater contribution to climate change impact uncertainty than those related to precipitation for most crops and regions, and in particular the sensitivity of crop yields to temperature was a critical source of uncertainty. These findings occurred despite rainfall's important contribution to year-to-year variability in crop yields and large disagreements among global climate models over the direction of future regional rainfall changes, and reflect the large magnitude of future warming relative to historical variability. We conclude that progress in understanding crop responses to temperature and the magnitude of regional temperature changes are two of the most important needs for climate change impact assessments and adaptation efforts for agriculture

  1. Combined impacts of land use and soil property changes on soil erosion in a mollisol area under long-term agricultural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Wu, Yuyang; Hao, Zengchao; Zhang, Qi; Bu, Qingwei; Gao, Xiang

    2018-02-01

    Soil erosion exhibits special characteristics in the process of agricultural development. Understanding the combined impacts of land use and soil property changes on soil erosion, especially in the area under long-term agricultural cultivations, is vital to watershed agricultural and soil management. This study investigated the temporal-spatial patterns of the soil erosion based on a modified version of Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and conducted a soil erosion contribution analysis. The land use data were interpreted from Landsat series images, and soil properties were obtained from field sampling, laboratory tests and SPAW (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Water) model calculations. Over a long period of agricultural development, the average erosion modulus decreased from 187.7tkm -2 a -1 in 1979 to 158.4tkm -2 a -1 in 2014. The land use types were transformed mainly in the reclamation of paddy fields and the shrinking of wetlands on a large scale. Most of the soils were converted to loam from silty or clay loam and the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K s ) of most soil types decreased by 1.11% to 43.6%. The rapidly increasing area of 49.8km 2 of paddy fields together with the moderate decrease of 14.0km 2 of forests, as well as K s values explained 87.4% of the total variance in soil erosion. Although changes in soil physical and water characteristics indicated that soil erosion loads should have become higher, the upsurge in paddy fields played an important role in mitigating soil erosion in this study area. These results demonstrated that land use changes had more significant impacts than soil property changes on soil erosion. This study suggested that rational measures should be taken to extend paddy fields and control the dry land farming. These findings will benefit watershed agricultural targeting and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Integrated Modelling on Flow and Water Quality Under the Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    SHI, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on flooding in the UK, inducing more intense and prolonged storms. Frequent flooding due to climate change already exacerbates catchment water quality. Land use is another contributing factor to poor water quality. For example, the move to intensive farming could cause an increase in faecal coliforms entering the water courses. In an effort to understand better the effects on water quality from land use and climate change, the hydrological and estuarine processes are being modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), linked to a 2-D hydrodynamic model DIVAST(Depth Integrated Velocity and Solute Transport). The coupled model is able to quantify how much of each pollutant from the catchment reaches the harbour and the impact on water quality within the harbour. The work is focused on the transportation and decay of faecal coliforms from agricultural runoff into the rivers Frome and Piddle in the UK. The impact from the agricultural land use and activities on the catchment river hydrology and water quality are evaluated. The coupled model calibration and validation showed the good model performance on flow and faecal coliform in the watershed and estuary.

  3. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.

    2015-01-01

    quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative E LUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed...... processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L; S T = S L − E LUC). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly...... the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present...

  4. Geo-environmental changes and agricultural land development in Bengal Delta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyamoto, Shinji; Uchida, Haruo; Ando, Kazuo; Salim, Muhammad

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed changes in the relationship between geo-environment and agricultural land development around the central Jamuna (Brahmaputra) River, central Bangladesh. Based on sedimentary facies analysis and AMS radiocarbon dating, some conclusions are as follows: (1) Natural levees along the Jamuna River formed until ca. 12 to 11 k cal yrs BP; (2) Homesteads (bari-bhiti) were repaired by public works (mati-kata) following some flood events; (3) Paddy fields and homesteads were created since ca. 1.3 k cal yrs BP around central Bangladesh (central Bengal Delta). (author)

  5. Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

  6. Pyrosequencing reveals changes in soil bacterial communities after conversion of Yungas forests to agriculture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela S Montecchia

    Full Text Available The Southern Andean Yungas in Northwest Argentina constitute one of the main biodiversity hotspots in the world. Considerable changes in land use have taken place in this ecoregion, predominantly related to forest conversion to croplands, inducing losses in above-ground biodiversity and with potential impact on soil microbial communities. In this study, we used high-throughput pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene to assess whether land-use change and time under agriculture affect the composition and diversity of soil bacterial communities. We selected two areas dedicated to sugarcane and soybean production, comprising both short- and long-term agricultural sites, and used the adjacent native forest soils as a reference. Land-use change altered the composition of bacterial communities, with differences between productive areas despite the similarities between both forests. At the phylum level, only Verrucomicrobia and Firmicutes changed in abundance after deforestation for sugarcane and soybean cropping, respectively. In cultivated soils, Verrucomicrobia decreased sharply (~80%, while Firmicutes were more abundant. Despite the fact that local diversity was increased in sugarcane systems and was not altered by soybean cropping, phylogenetic beta diversity declined along both chronosequences, evidencing a homogenization of soil bacterial communities over time. In spite of the detected alteration in composition and diversity, we found a core microbiome resistant to the disturbances caused by the conversion of forests to cultivated lands and few or none exclusive OTUs for each land-use type. The overall changes in the relative abundance of copiotrophic and oligotrophic taxa may have an impact in soil ecosystem functionality. However, communities with many taxa in common may also share many functional attributes, allowing to maintain at least some soil ecosystem services after forest conversion to croplands.

  7. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    Despite the great progresses of the last century in the agricultural sector and food supply, still about 820 million of people in developing countries are facing food scarcity and malnutrition. More than 180 million children are underweight. Except in Africa, 80 percent of the production gains came from increased yields in major cereal crops. The area cultivated has actually begun to decline in some regions. From now on, however, even Africa, which has always relied on cultivation of new land for production increases, will have to count on yield gains or pay high financial and ecological costs for expansion into areas not yet cultivated. The global scenario is changing fast. The technological, climatic and human-induced factors are creating long-lasting effects on the lives of people and on economic activities around the globe. In particular, climate change and/or variability is exacerbating rural increasing heat stress to natural habitats and human settlements, increasing climatic extremes, including drought and impacting food production. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress; as a result there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance. These climate change effects are particularly harmful in tropical regions of South America, Africa and South East Asia where food production is feeding a large part of world countries and poses serious risks to global food security in the future. Despite global projected climate change will affect a general decline of

  8. Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Wetland and Agriculture in the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Influences of the increasing pressure of climate change and anthropogenic activities on wetlands ecosystems and agriculture are significant around the world. This paper assessed the spatiotemporal land use and land cover changes (LULCC, especially for conversion from marshland to other LULC types (e.g., croplands over the Songnen and Sanjiang Plain (SNP and SJP, northeast China, during the past 35 years (1980–2015. The relative role of human activities and climatic changes in terms of their impacts on wetlands and agriculture dynamics were quantitatively distinguished and evaluated in different periods based on a seven-stage LULC dataset. Our results indicated that human activities, such as population expansion and socioeconomic development, and institutional policies related to wetlands and agriculture were the main driving forces for LULCC of the SJP and SNP during the past decades, while increasing contributions of climatic changes were also found. Furthermore, as few studies have identified which geographic regions are most at risk, how the future climate changes will spatially and temporally impact wetlands and agriculture, i.e., the suitability of wetlands and agriculture distributions under different future climate change scenarios, were predicted and analyzed using a habitat distribution model (Maxent at the pixel-scale. The present findings can provide valuable references for policy makers on regional sustainability for food security, water resource rational management, agricultural planning and wetland protection as well as restoration of the region.

  9. Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

  10. Climate change and hailstorm damage: Empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Bouwer, L.M.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is much uncertainty about the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events like hailstorms, and subsequent economic losses, while this is also relevant information for the design of climate policy. Few studies conducted indicate that a strong positive relation exists between hailstorm activity and hailstorm damage, as predicted by minimum temperatures using simple correlations. This relation suggests that hailstorm damage may increase in the future if global warming leads to further temperature increase. This study estimates a range of Tobit models of relations between normalized insured hailstorm damage to agriculture and several temperature and precipitation indicators for the Netherlands. Temporal dynamics are explicitly modelled. A distinction is made between damage costs for greenhouse horticulture and outdoor farming, which appear to be differently affected by variability in weather. 'Out of sample' forecast tests show that a combination of maximum temperatures and precipitation predicts hailstorm damage best. Extrapolations of the historical relations between hailstorm damage and weather indicators under climate change scenarios project a considerable increase in future hailstorm damage. Our estimates show that by 2050 annual hailstorm damage to outdoor farming could increase by between 25% and 50%, with considerably larger impacts on greenhouse horticulture in summer of more than 200%. The economic implications of more hailstorm damage for, and adaptation by, the agricultural and insurance sectors are discussed. (author)

  11. A change in landscape: Lessons learned from abandonment of ancient Wari agricultural terraces in Southern Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londoño, Ana C; Williams, Patrick Ryan; Hart, Megan L

    2017-11-01

    Ancient agricultural terrace practices have survived for millennia, sustaining populations through extreme climatic shifts and political regime changes. In arid regions with abrupt relief such as Southern Peru, agricultural terracing is undergoing a resurgence, as has seen revitalization of once abandoned terrace and hydraulic systems. Wari terraces at Cerro Baul provide clues to past cultural practices. They also document sustainable farming practices by using resilient land management techniques which can help combat desertification and degradation of arable lands. Three abandoned Wari terrace systems were mapped using microtopographic methods, the erosion patterns examined, the states of preservation compared, and then the design contrasted with modern terracing practices in the Moquegua Valley. In order to negate the harmful effects of desertification, rehabilitation and reconstruction of these terraces using ancient knowledge and techniques may be necessary. Rehabilitation must be conducted with consideration for preservation of cultural patrimony that may be encountered within the terrace treads or riser structures. With future climatic shifts impacting vulnerable dryland areas more than others, the ability to resiliently respond to these changes may be found in the lessons learned from ancient farming techniques such as the Wari. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. GIS analysis of change in an agriculture landscape in Central Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riitta Ruuska

    1996-12-01

    Full Text Available Changes in landscape over a period of 50 years were analysed in a rural area of 324 ha in Central Finland. The data were digitized from aerial photographs of the National Land Survey taken in 1944, 1959, 1979 and 1991, and analysed with the IDRISI™ geographic information system (GIS. The average proportion of land in agricultural use in the sample area was 17.4%. The arable area declined from the maximum of 62.3 ha (1959 to 47.6 ha. The total length of linear landscape elements, predominantly ditch bank habitats, halved, from 876 m/ha of field (1944 to 449 m/ha by the end of the period. The average rate of loss of field boundary habitat was 9.1 m/ha/ year. At the same time, the Shannon-Weaver index of diversity of agricultural landscape elements dropped from 0.37 to 0.24. The number of field parcels declined by 29%, and the mean parcel size increased by 45%, from 1.2 ha to 1.7 ha. The index value of the fractal dimension measuring the complexity of parcel shapes also fell, from 1.88 (1959 to 1.86 (1991. The change in spatial structure reflects the intensification of farming in Finland. Biodiversity at ecosystem level has clearly declined. However, the implications for the agroecosystem and its sustainability are still unknown.

  13. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  14. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  15. Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Szwed

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961–1990 and 2061–2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes – droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being: –2.175 t/ha for potatoes and –0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days and the number of seniors (aged 65+. The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during

  16. Development and Climate Change in Uruguay. Focus on Coastal Zones, Agriculture and Forestry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawala, S.; Moehner, A.; Gagnon-Lebrun, F.; Van Aalst, M.; Smith, J.; Hagenstad, M.; Baethgen, W.E.; Martino, D.L.; Lorenzo, E.

    2004-01-01

    This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity jointly overseen by the EPOC Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the DAC Network on Environment and Development Co-operation (ENVIRONET). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. This report presents the integrated case study for Tanzania carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. This report presents the integrated case study for Uruguay carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Uruguay are assessed and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for adaptation in coastal zones as well as for mainstreaming carbonsequestration within the agriculture and forestry sectors

  17. Rapid ecosystem change challenges the adaptive capacity of Local Environmental Knowledge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Díaz-Reviriego, Isabel; Luz, Ana C; Cabeza, Mar; Pyhälä, Aili; Reyes-García, Victoria

    2015-03-01

    The use of Local Environmental Knowledge has been considered as an important strategy for adaptive management in the face of Global Environmental Change. However, the unprecedented rates at which global change occurs may pose a challenge to the adaptive capacity of local knowledge systems. In this paper, we use the concept of the shifting baseline syndrome to examine the limits in the adaptive capacity of the local knowledge of an indigenous society facing rapid ecosystem change. We conducted semi-structured interviews regarding perceptions of change in wildlife populations and in intergenerational transmission of knowledge amongst the Tsimane', a group of hunter-gatherers of Bolivian Amazonia ( n = 300 adults in 13 villages). We found that the natural baseline against which the Tsimane' measure ecosystem changes might be shifting with every generation as a result of (a) age-related differences in the perception of change and (b) a decrease in the intergenerational sharing of environmental knowledge. Such findings suggest that local knowledge systems might not change at a rate quick enough to adapt to conditions of rapid ecosystem change, hence potentially compromising the adaptive success of the entire social-ecological system. With the current pace of Global Environmental Change, widening the gap between the temporal rates of on-going ecosystem change and the timescale needed for local knowledge systems to adjust to change, efforts to tackle the shifting baseline syndrome are urgent and critical for those who aim to use Local Environmental Knowledge as a tool for adaptive management.

  18. Water-food-energy nexus with changing agricultural scenarios in India during recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Beas; Ghosh, Subimal; Saheer Sahana, A.; Pathak, Amey; Sekhar, Muddu

    2017-06-01

    Meeting the growing water and food demands in a densely populated country like India is a major challenge. It requires an extensive investigation into the changing patterns of the checks and balances behind the maintenance of food security at the expense of depleting groundwater, along with high energy consumption. Here we present a comprehensive set of analyses which assess the present status of the water-food-energy nexus in India, along with its changing pattern, in the last few decades. We find that with the growth of population and consequent increase in the food demands, the food production has also increased, and this has been made possible with the intensification of irrigation. However, during the recent decade (after 1996), the increase in food production has not been sufficient to meet its growing demands, precipitating a decline in the per-capita food availability. We also find a statistically significant declining trend of groundwater storage in India during the last decade, as derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite datasets. Regional studies reveal contrasting trends between northern and western-central India. North-western India and the middle Ganga basin show a decrease in the groundwater storage as opposed to an increasing storage over western-central India. Comparison with well data reveals that the highest consistency of GRACE-derived storage data with available well measurements is in the middle Ganga basin. After analysing the data for the last 2 decades, we further showcase that, after a drought, the groundwater storage drops but is unable to recover to its original condition even after good monsoon years. The groundwater storage reveals a very strong negative correlation with the electricity consumption for agricultural usage, which may also be considered as a proxy for groundwater pumped for irrigation in a region. The electricity usage for agricultural purposes has an increasing trend and, interestingly

  19. Water–food–energy nexus with changing agricultural scenarios in India during recent decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Barik

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Meeting the growing water and food demands in a densely populated country like India is a major challenge. It requires an extensive investigation into the changing patterns of the checks and balances behind the maintenance of food security at the expense of depleting groundwater, along with high energy consumption. Here we present a comprehensive set of analyses which assess the present status of the water–food–energy nexus in India, along with its changing pattern, in the last few decades. We find that with the growth of population and consequent increase in the food demands, the food production has also increased, and this has been made possible with the intensification of irrigation. However, during the recent decade (after 1996, the increase in food production has not been sufficient to meet its growing demands, precipitating a decline in the per-capita food availability. We also find a statistically significant declining trend of groundwater storage in India during the last decade, as derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellite datasets. Regional studies reveal contrasting trends between northern and western–central India. North-western India and the middle Ganga basin show a decrease in the groundwater storage as opposed to an increasing storage over western–central India. Comparison with well data reveals that the highest consistency of GRACE-derived storage data with available well measurements is in the middle Ganga basin. After analysing the data for the last 2 decades, we further showcase that, after a drought, the groundwater storage drops but is unable to recover to its original condition even after good monsoon years. The groundwater storage reveals a very strong negative correlation with the electricity consumption for agricultural usage, which may also be considered as a proxy for groundwater pumped for irrigation in a region. The electricity usage for agricultural purposes has an increasing

  20. Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch

    2010-01-01

    Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

  1. Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashist, B.; Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.

    1982-01-01

    Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected

  2. Morphological change in cranial shape following the transition to agriculture across western Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheronet, Olivia; Finarelli, John A; Pinhasi, Ron

    2016-09-13

    The Neolithic transition brought about fundamental social, dietary and behavioural changes in human populations, which, in turn, impacted skeletal morphology. Crania are shaped through diverse genetic, ontogenetic and environmental factors, reflecting various elements of an individual's life. To determine the transition's effect on cranial morphology, we investigated its potential impact on the face and vault, two elements potentially responding to different influences. Three datasets from geographically distant regions (Ukraine, Iberia, and the Levant plus Anatolia) were analysed. Craniometric measurements were used to compare the morphology of pre-transition populations with that of agricultural populations. The Neolithic transition corresponds to a statistically significant increase only in cranial breadth of the Ukrainian vaults, while facial morphology shows no consistent transformations, despite expected changes related to the modification of masticatory behaviour. The broadening of Ukrainian vaults may be attributable to dietary and/or social changes. However, the lack of change observed in the other geographical regions and the lack of consistent change in facial morphology are surprising. Although the transition from foraging to farming is a process that took place repeatedly across the globe, different characteristics of transitions seem responsible for idiosyncratic responses in cranial morphology.

  3. SUSTAINABLE DIVERSIFIED AGRICULTURE AND LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE HIMALAYA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Bajracharya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The soil and land resources play a vital role in sustaining the local livelihoods of rural communities in the Himalaya. Most of the arable land has already been brought under cultivation, hence the ever-increasing demand for food and fiber has left farmers with no choice but to intensify agriculture. However, producing more crops and greater quantities of food, fiber and other materials on the same parcel of land can to soil fertility and productivity decline with overall degradation of land quality. Therefore, ways and means to intensify agriculture to enhance productivity without degrading the soil and land resource base have become imperative. Agro-forestry, agro-slivi-pastoral systems, and the adoption of a variety of crop, soil and water management and conservation practices offer potential to deliver multiple benefits without sacrificing the very resource upon which the human population depends. Presented herein are findings on approaches to sustainable intensification of agriculture and land management related to soil OM management and C sequestration for multiple benefits, and, agro-forestry as a crop diversification strategy with both livelihood, and climate change adaptation/mitigation benefits. The results indicate that sustainable soil management practices could lead to significant SOC accumulations (4-8 t/ha over 6 yrs. SOC and soil C stocks tend to increase with elevation due to cooler climate and slow decomposition rates. Carbon stocks for the 3 LU types was in the order CF>AF/LH>AG, suggesting that diversified cropping practices including agro-forestry have good potential sequester C while providing livelihood opportunities and climate adaptive capacity for local farming communities. Biochar amendment increased growth of both coffee plants and radish with mixed grass/weed biochar being most effective. Biochar application also significantly decreased emission of GHGs, especially N2O.

  4. Evaluation of Agricultural Crops Water Footprint with Application of Climate Change in Urmia Lake basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    majid montaseri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The water footprint index as a complete indicator represents the actual used water in agriculture based on the climate condition, the amount of crop production, the people consumption pattern, the agriculture practices and water efficiency in any region. The water footprint in agricultural products is divided to three components, including green, blue and gray water footprint. Green water footprint is rainwater stored in soil profile and on vegetation. Blue water refers to water in rivers, lakes and aquifers which is used for irrigation purposes. Gray water footprint refers to define as the volume of contaminated water. The water footprint in arid and semiarid regions with high water requirement for plants and limited fresh water resources has considerable importance and key role in the planning and utilization of limited water resources in these regions. On the other hand, increasing the temperature and decreasing the rainfall due to climate change, are two agents which affect arid and semiarid regions. Therefore, in this research the water footprint of agriculturalcrop production in Urmia Lake basin, with application of climate change for planning, stable operating and crop pattern optimizing, was evaluated to reduce agricultural water consumption and help supplying water rights of Urmia Lake. Materials and Methods:Urmia Lake basin, as one of the main sextet basins in Iran, is located in the North West of Iran and includes large sections of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Kurdistan areas. Thirteen major rivers are responsible to drain surface streams in Urmia Lake basin and these rivers after supplying agriculture and drinking water and residential areas in the flow path, are evacuated to the Lake. Today because of non-observance of sustainable development concept, increasing water use in different parts and climate change phenomena in Urmia Lake basin the hydrologic balance was perturbed, and Urmia Lake has been lost 90% of

  5. Rapid stress-induced transcriptomic changes in the brain depend on beta-adrenergic signaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roszkowski, Martin; Manuella, Francesca; von Ziegler, Lukas; Durán-Pacheco, Gonzalo; Moreau, Jean-Luc; Mansuy, Isabelle M; Bohacek, Johannes

    2016-08-01

    Acute exposure to stressful experiences can rapidly increase anxiety and cause neuropsychiatric disorders. The effects of stress result in part from the release of neurotransmitters and hormones, which regulate gene expression in different brain regions. The fast neuroendocrine response to stress is largely mediated by norepinephrine (NE) and corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH), followed by a slower and more sustained release of corticosterone. While corticosterone is an important regulator of gene expression, it is not clear which stress-signals contribute to the rapid regulation of gene expression observed immediately after stress exposure. Here, we demonstrate in mice that 45 min after an acute swim stress challenge, large changes in gene expression occur across the transcriptome in the hippocampus, a region sensitive to the effects of stress. We identify multiple candidate genes that are rapidly and transiently altered in both males and females. Using a pharmacological approach, we show that most of these rapidly induced genes are regulated by NE through β-adrenergic receptor signaling. We find that CRH and corticosterone can also contribute to rapid changes in gene expression, although these effects appear to be restricted to fewer genes. These results newly reveal a widespread impact of NE on the transcriptome and identify novel genes associated with stress and adrenergic signaling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  7. Chemical changes in agricultural soils of Korea: data review and suggested countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, I S; Koh, M H

    2004-01-01

    The monitoring of chemical properties, including heavy metals, in soils is necessary if better management and remediation practices are to be established for polluted soils. The National Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology initiated a monitoring study that investigated fertility and heavy metal contents of the benchmarked soils. The study covered paddy soils, upland soils, and horticultural soils in the plastic film houses, and orchard soils throughout the Korea from 1990 to 1998. Likewise, 4047 samples of paddy and 2534 samples of plastic house in 1999 and 2000 were analyzed through the Soil Environment Conservation Act. Soil chemical properties such as pH, organic matter, available phosphate and extractable calcium, magnesium and potassium contents, and heavy metal contents such as cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, arsenic, mercury, and cobalt contents were analyzed. The study showed that the average contents of organic matter, available phosphate, and extractable potassium rapidly increased in plastic house soils than in upland or paddy soils. Two kinds of fertilizer recommendation systems were established for the study: the standard levels by national soil average data for 77 crops and the recommendation by soil test for 70 crops. Standard nitrogen fertilizer application levels for cereal crops changed from 94 kg/ha in 1960s, 99 kg/ha in 1970s, 110 kg/ha in 1980s to 90 kg/ha in 1990s. The K2O-fertilizer also changed from 67 kg/ha in 1960s, 76 kg/ha in 1970s, 92 kg/ha in 1980s, and only 44 kg/ha in 1990s. In rice paddy fields, the average contents of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in surface soils (0-15 cm depth) were 0.11 mg kg(-1) (ranged from 0 to 1.01), 4.70 mg kg(-1) (0-41.59), 4.84 mg kg(-1) (0-66.44), and 4.47 mg kg(-1) (0-96.70), respectively. In the uplands, the average contents of Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, and As in surface soils (0-15 cm depth) were 0.135 mg kg(-1) (ranged from 0 to 0.660), 2.77 mg kg(-1) (0.07-78.24), 3.47 mg kg(-1) (0-43.00), 10.70 mg kg(-1) (0

  8. What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, P.; Blanco, M.; Van Doorslaer, B.; Ramos, F.; Ceglar, A.

    2017-07-01

    Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

  9. What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, P.; Blanco, M.; Van Doorslaer, B.; Ramos, F.; Ceglar, A.

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

  10. Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andrés.; Lázár, Attila N.; Clarke, Derek; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Mashfiqus, Salehin; Haque, Anisul

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (˜20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

  11. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  12. Topographic changes detection through Structure-from-Motion in agricultural lands affected by erosion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Massimo; Pradetto Sordo, Nicoletta; Burguet, Maria; Di Prima, Simone; Terol Esparza, Enric; Tarolli, Paolo; Cerdà, Artemi

    2016-04-01

    Throughout the world, soil erosion by water is a serious problem, especially in semi-arid and semi-humid areas (Cerdà et al., 2009; Cerdan et al., 2010; García-Ruiz, 2010). Although soil erosion by water consists of physical processes that vary significantly in severity and frequency according to when and where they occur, they are also strongly influenced by anthropic factors such as land-use changes on large scales and unsustainable farming practices (Boardman et al., 1990; Cerdà 1994; Montgomery, 2007). Tillage operations, combined with weather conditions, are recognized to primarily influence soil erosion rates. If, on one hand, tillage operations cause uniform changes based on the tool used, on the other, weather conditions, such as rainfalls, produce more random changes, less easily traceable (Snapir et al., 2014). Within this context, remote-sensing technologies can facilitate the detection and quantification of these topographic changes. In particular, a real opportunity and challenge is offered by the low-cost and flexible photogrammetric technique, called 'Structure-from-Motion' (SfM), combined with the use of smartphones (Micheletti et al., 2014; Prosdocimi et al., 2015). This represents a significant advance compared with more expensive technologies and applications (e.g. Terrestrial Laser Scanner - TLS) (Tarolli, 2014). This work wants to test the Structure from Motion to obtain high-resolution topography for the detection of topographic changes in agricultural lands affected by erosion processes. Two case studies were selected: i) a tilled plot characterized by bare soil and affected by rill erosion located in the hilly countryside of Marche region (central Italy), and ii) a Mediterranean vineyard located within the province of Valencia (south eastern Spain) where rainfall simulation experiments were carried out. Extensive photosets were obtained by using one standalone reflex digital camera and one smartphone built-in digital camera. Digital

  13. Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

    2013-11-15

    Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Willingness to pay for agricultural risk insurance as a strategy to adapt climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mekonnen Melesse, Tigist

    2017-01-01

    Agricultural production is subject to high risk associated with environmental and agro-ecological conditions. Farmers continuously make decisions to mitigate the various adversities. This study evaluates farm households’ willingness to pay for agricultural risk insurance intervention introduced in

  15. Economic Analysis of Climate Change Best Management Practices in Vermont Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander P. Helling

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts local agricultural systems in detectable and distinguishable ways from large-scale shifts in water, land, and weather patterns to regionally specific distributions of weeds, pests, and diseases. Best management practices for adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change include modifications to farm production through adjusted intensity and product types and changing land use through crop siting and tillage practices. Farmer perceptions of risk and profitability of best management practices are key determinants of adoption, which traditional incentive programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program attempt to address by providing financial and technical support. To ensure that payments offered through these programs that maximize adoption, regional incentive payments must be based upon locally established costs. This paper focuses on the cost of implementing and maintaining climate change specific best management practices (CCBMPs for twelve diverse farms in Vermont. Specifically, three CCBMPs for Vermont are examined: cover cropping, management intensive rotational grazing (MIRG, and riparian buffer strips. Results show the average cost for cover cropping is $129.24/acre, MIRG is $79.82/acre, and a tree based riparian buffer strip cost $807.33/acre. We conclude that existing incentive payments for cover cropping and MIRG are below costs, likely resulting in under-adoption.

  16. A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuo, Wen-Kai; Weng, Hsueh-Ping; Hsu, Jyun-Jheng; Yu, Hsin Her

    2016-01-01

    Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

  17. A bioinspired color-changing polystyrene microarray as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuo, Wen-Kai, E-mail: wkkuo@nfu.edu.tw [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Weng, Hsueh-Ping, E-mail: sherry.weng7949@gmail.com [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Hsu, Jyun-Jheng, E-mail: k88520x@gmail.com [Graduate Institute of Electro-Optical and Materials Science, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China); Yu, Hsin Her, E-mail: hhyu@nfu.edu.tw [Department of Biotechnology, National Formosa University, 64 Wenhua Road, Huwei, Yunlin 63208, Taiwan (China)

    2016-04-15

    Polystyrene (PS) microspheres were synthesized by emulsifier-free emulsion polymerization and arranged in an array of closely packed, opal-like photonic crystals by slow self-assembly through dip-coating. This periodic array of PS microspheres was then employed as a rapid qualitative sensor for methanol and ethanol. Both solvents could be detected rapidly based on the routes of their reflection coordinates in the chromaticity diagram or directly by the naked eye on the basis of the change in color within 1 min once a solvent sample had been placed on the PS photochromic sensor. This opal-like PS sensor can thus not only be employed as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol but can also be used as a powerful tool for the fast screening of illicit drugs and toxic chemicals during forensic investigations. - Highlights: • Opal-like array of polystyrene (PS) microspheres is synthesized by self-assembly. • This periodic PS array is used as a rapid sensor for methanol and ethanol. • Solvents are detected by routes of reflection coordinates in chromaticity diagram. • They are also detected directly by naked eye based on change in color of sensor. • The color change is irreversible for methanol but reversible for ethanol.

  18. Impacts of Present and Future Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agriculture in the Temperate Regions. North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motha, Raymond P.; Baier, W.

    2005-01-01

    The potential impact of climate variability and climate change on agricultural production in the United States and Canada varies generally by latitude. Largest reductions are projected in southern crop areas due to increased temperatures and reduced water availability. A longer growing season and projected increases in CO2 may enhance crop yields in northern growing areas. Major factors in these scenarios analyzes are increased drought tendencies and more extreme weather events, both of which are detrimental to agriculture. Increasing competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural users also focuses attention on water management issues. Agriculture also has impact on the greenhouse gas balance. Forests and soils are natural sinks for CO2. Removal of forests and changes in land use, associated with the conversion from rural to urban domains, alters these natural sinks. Agricultural livestock and rice cultivation are leading contributors to methane emission into the atmosphere. The application of fertilizers is also a significant contributor to nitrous oxide emission into the atmosphere. Thus, efficient management strategies in agriculture can play an important role in managing the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. Forest and land management can be effective tools in mitigating the greenhouse effect

  19. Agricultural law and development of rural areas: food challenges, natural resources and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández, Ángel Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    In order to eradicate hunger in the world agricultural decisions must be made that will design a new model of agricultural production that will be more productive and will fit better in the fight against global warming. These decisions will help to regulate agricultural activities so that they help in the above mentioned fight as well. This new model of agricultural production will come together with the adoption of rural development decisions which will then be suitable for every ecosystem, ...

  20. Agricultural land change in the Carpathian ecoregion after the breakdown of socialism and expansion of the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Patrick; Müller, Daniel; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Hostert, Patrick

    2013-12-01

    Widespread changes of agricultural land use occurred in Eastern Europe since the collapse of socialism and the European Union’s eastward expansion, but the rates and patterns of recent land changes remain unclear. Here we assess agricultural land change for the entire Carpathian ecoregion in Eastern Europe at 30 m spatial resolution with Landsat data and for two change periods, between 1985-2000 and 2000-2010. The early period is characterized by post-socialist transition processes, the late period by an increasing influence of EU politics in the region. For mapping and change detection, we use a machine learning approach (random forests) on image composites and variance metrics which were derived from the full decadal archive of Landsat imagery. Our results suggest that cropland abandonment was the most prevalent change process, but we also detected considerable areas of grassland conversion and forest expansion on non-forest land. Cropland abandonment was most extensive during the transition period and predominantly occurred in marginal areas with low suitability for agriculture. Conversely, we observed substantial recultivation of formerly abandoned cropland in high-value agricultural areas since 2000. Hence, market forces increasingly adjust socialist legacies of land expansive production and agricultural land use clusters in favorable areas while marginal lands revert to forest.

  1. Agricultural land change in the Carpathian ecoregion after the breakdown of socialism and expansion of the European Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, Patrick; Müller, Daniel; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Hostert, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Widespread changes of agricultural land use occurred in Eastern Europe since the collapse of socialism and the European Union’s eastward expansion, but the rates and patterns of recent land changes remain unclear. Here we assess agricultural land change for the entire Carpathian ecoregion in Eastern Europe at 30 m spatial resolution with Landsat data and for two change periods, between 1985–2000 and 2000–2010. The early period is characterized by post-socialist transition processes, the late period by an increasing influence of EU politics in the region. For mapping and change detection, we use a machine learning approach (random forests) on image composites and variance metrics which were derived from the full decadal archive of Landsat imagery. Our results suggest that cropland abandonment was the most prevalent change process, but we also detected considerable areas of grassland conversion and forest expansion on non-forest land. Cropland abandonment was most extensive during the transition period and predominantly occurred in marginal areas with low suitability for agriculture. Conversely, we observed substantial recultivation of formerly abandoned cropland in high-value agricultural areas since 2000. Hence, market forces increasingly adjust socialist legacies of land expansive production and agricultural land use clusters in favorable areas while marginal lands revert to forest. (letter)

  2. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  3. The Changing Face of Agricultural Education in Nigeria: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egun, A. C.

    2010-01-01

    Self sufficiency in food and raw material production for agro-based industries has been the thrust of Nigerian agricultural policy. Realizing the goals of the policy has been bedevilled with series of plethora problems. This paper took a look at agricultural reforms, examined the problems of agricultural practices and suggests education of the…

  4. [Dynamic changes of land desertification landscape pattern in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Ke-Li; Chang, Qing-Rui

    2007-09-01

    By using the 1986, 1993 and 2003 Landsat TM images and with the help of GIS, the dynamic changes of land desertification landscape pattern in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi in 1986-2003 were analyzed. The results showed that in the past 17 years, the desertification area in the zone decreased by 206,655.2 hm2, with the patches in landscape structure reduced and fragmentation abated. Fortunately, the desertification degree decreased obviously, and moderate and light desertification took the leading position. From 1986 to 2003, the spatial centroid of desertification landscape patches expanded southwestward and northeastward, giving serious threat to the ecological safety of the southeast and northeast loess gully and hilly areas.

  5. The floristic changes on excluded from agricultural production field after single Roundup spraying

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Jabłoński

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of experiment conducting on the field, weedy by Agropyron repens (L. P. B. was established what is the degree of elimination of Agropyron repens plants from experimental plots by single Roundup spraying. The changes of the species composition on the fields with different clover-grass mixtures or with Phacelia tanacaetifolia Benth. were studied as well. The stand tables have been made in the first year of the conducting experiment, to determination the density of weeds, after different agricultural practices. It has been found the great elimination of Agropyron repens (L. P. B. plants after Roundup spraying and the great density of Echinochloa crus-galli (L. P. B. plants. It has been found the great density of Chenopodium album L. at VII treatment and Galinsoga parviflora Cav. at III, V, VII and VIII treatments as well (Table I.

  6. Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

    2018-06-01

    Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37 % of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90 %) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  8. The changing roles of science in managing Australian droughts: An agricultural perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Howden

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available As the driest inhabited continent with a highly variable climate, Australia has had a long and evolving history of drought management in agriculture. This paper analyses the changing roles of science in the management of climate risk and uncertainty and how this may continue into the future. Initially science had a role in documenting the underlying nature of Australia׳s climate, and later broadening the understanding around the drivers of variability so as to provide useful climate forecasts and developing metrics to measure and compare the severity of extreme climatic events. Over time this has shifted to providing effective integrating approaches to enhance social cohesion, rural economies, environmental protection, health, and food security under drought conditions. Institutional responses initially framed drought as a natural disaster, for which State and Federal funding for farmers was distributed; however, the need for farmers to proactively manage climate risk and build adaptive capacity has resulted in climate variability being seen as a risk to be managed as part of normal practise. The formulation of a national drought policy in 1992 placed responsibility for adaptation and education in the hands of the farmers, where science played various roles, including the provision of training for strategic business planning and decision-making, methods of managing uncertainty as well as via delivery of climate data and methods to integrate this into meaningful information that is embedded into the social and institutional processes through which decisions are made. This policy continues to evolve and science inputs will evolve with this. In particular, we anticipate that ongoing and projected climate changes will impact on drought frequency and severity and will require science integrated with stakeholder input into developing climate adaptation practices and technologies and effective adoption paths particularly to deal with climate extremes

  9. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  10. Climatic Data Integration and Analysis - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Sheneman, L.; Gollberg, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) is a five-year USDA/NIFA-funded coordinated agriculture project to examine the sustainability of cereal crop production systems in the Pacific Northwest, in relationship to ongoing climate change. As part of this effort, an extensive data management system has been developed to enable researchers, students, and the public, to upload, manage, and analyze various data. The REACCH PNA data management team has developed three core systems to encompass cyberinfrastructure and data management needs: 1) the reacchpna.org portal (https://www.reacchpna.org) is the entry point for all public and secure information, with secure access by REACCH PNA members for data analysis, uploading, and informational review; 2) the REACCH PNA Data Repository is a replicated, redundant database server environment that allows for file and database storage and access to all core data; and 3) the REACCH PNA Libraries which are functional groupings of data for REACCH PNA members and the public, based on their access level. These libraries are accessible thru our https://www.reacchpna.org portal. The developed system is structured in a virtual server environment (data, applications, web) that includes a geospatial database/geospatial web server for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), use of ESRI's Geoportal Server for data discovery and metadata management (under the ISO 19115-2 standard), Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) for data cataloging, and Interactive Python notebook server (IPython) technology for data analysis. REACCH systems are housed and maintained by the Northwest Knowledge Network project (www.northwestknowledge.net), which provides data management services to support research. Initial project data harvesting and meta-tagging efforts have resulted in the interrogation and loading of over 10 terabytes of climate model output, regional entomological data

  11. Irrigated agriculture and future climate change effects on groundwater recharge, northern High Plains aquifer, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauffenburger, Zachary H.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Hobza, Christopher M.; Woodward, Duane; Wolf, Cassandra

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (ψT) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (3H, Cl−, Br−, CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D models, and irrigation requirements were estimated using the Crops Simulation Model (CROPSIM). Future model simulations were driven by an ensemble of 16 global climate models and two global warming scenarios to project a 2050 climate relative to the historical baseline 1990 climate, and simulate changes in precipitation, irrigation, evapotranspiration, and diffuse and irrigation recharge rates. Although results indicate statistical differences between the historical variables at the eastern and western sites and rangeland and irrigated sites, the low warming scenario (+1.0 °C) simulations indicate no statistical differences between 2050 and 1990. However, the high warming scenarios (+2.4 °C) indicate a 25% and 15% increase in median annual evapotranspiration and irrigation demand, and decreases in future diffuse recharge by 53% and 98% and irrigation recharge by 47% and 29% at the eastern and western sites, respectively. These results indicate an important threshold between the low and high warming scenarios that if exceeded could trigger a significant bidirectional shift in 2050 hydroclimatology and recharge gradients. The bidirectional shift is that future northern High Plains temperatures will resemble present central High Plains

  12. Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuhiro Homma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

  13. Climate change and agricultural risk management: the role of the family-farm characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaranta, G.; Salvia, R.

    2009-04-01

    During recent years, water-related anomalies (drought, water scarcity, flood) have become a common occurrence in most areas and especially in the arid and semiarid regions of Mediterranean areas. There are evidences of increasing inter-annual variability, as increasing deviation from the long-term mean. This could be the main reason for the increasing incidence of drought, rather than any decline in long-term rainfall, also if a decrease of total amount of water is expected by the IPCC scenarios. Another reason for increasing drought and water scarcity conditions is growing demand for water needed by different productive sectors. These anomalies greatly increase the uncertainties of the agricultural sector affecting performance and management and leading to substantial augment in agricultural risk and destabilization of farm incomes. Agricultural adaptation to drought and climate change at the farm level as well as changes in activity level strongly depend on the technological potential (different varieties of crops, irrigation technologies); soil, water, and biological response; and the capability of farmers to detect changes and undertake any necessary actions as result of perception of the problem and capacity/willingness to react. Farm characteristics (size, technological level and other characteristics) and the social economic features of the family running those farms (number of components, age, education level, etc) act as important variables influencing, at farm level, the capacity and rate of adaptation/mitigation options implementation. The ability or inability to avoid/react from a risk could be interpreted as a social resilience of an area, deriving mainly from its socio-demographic features. The shift from a paradigm mainly focuses upon the physical agents in the natural or human-modified environment, which cause a threat to society, to a new approach where the social, economical and political conditions are overcoming and gaining importance in the

  14. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  15. Rapid change of field line connectivity and reconnection in stochastic magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Yi-Min; Bhattacharjee, A.; Boozer, Allen H.

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic fields without a direction of continuous symmetry have the generic feature that neighboring field lines exponentiate away from each other and become stochastic, and hence the ideal constraint of preserving magnetic field line connectivity becomes exponentially sensitive to small deviations from ideal Ohm's law. The idea of breaking field line connectivity by stochasticity as a mechanism for fast reconnection is tested with numerical simulations based on reduced magnetohydrodynamics equations with a strong guide field line-tied to two perfectly conducting end plates. Starting from an ideally stable force-free equilibrium, the system is allowed to undergo resistive relaxation. Two distinct phases are found in the process of resistive relaxation. During the quasi-static phase, rapid change of field line connectivity and strong induced flow are found in regions of high field line exponentiation. However, although the field line connectivity of individual field lines can change rapidly, the overall pattern of field line mapping appears to deform gradually. From this perspective, field line exponentiation appears to cause enhanced diffusion rather than reconnection. In some cases, resistive quasi-static evolution can cause the ideally stable initial equilibrium to cross a stability threshold, leading to formation of intense current filaments and rapid change of field line mapping into a qualitatively different pattern. It is in this onset phase that the change of field line connectivity is more appropriately designated as magnetic reconnection. Our results show that rapid change of field line connectivity appears to be a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for fast reconnection.

  16. Past and future impacts of land use and climate change on agricultural ecosystem services in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lorencová, E.; Frélichová, J.; Nelson, E.; Vačkář, David

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 33, JUL (2013), s. 183-194 ISSN 0264-8377 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * scenarios * land use change * ecosystem services * agriculture * assessment Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.134, year: 2013

  17. An Agent-Based Assessment of Land Use and Ecosystem Changes in Traditional Agricultural Landscape of Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Bakker, M.M.; Doorn, van A.M.; Gómez-Delgado, M.; Delgado, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent- based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the

  18. Detecting spatio-temporal changes in agricultural land use in Heilongjiang province, China using MODIS time-series data and a random forest regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Q.; Friedl, M. A.; Wu, W.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and timely information regarding the spatial distribution of crop types and their changes is essential for acreage surveys, yield estimation, water management, and agricultural production decision-making. In recent years, increasing population, dietary shifts and climate change have driven drastic changes in China's agricultural land use. However, no maps are currently available that document the spatial and temporal patterns of these agricultural land use changes. Because of its short revisit period, rich spectral bands and global coverage, MODIS time series data has been shown to have great potential for detecting the seasonal dynamics of different crop types. However, its inherently coarse spatial resolution limits the accuracy with which crops can be identified from MODIS in regions with small fields or complex agricultural landscapes. To evaluate this more carefully and specifically understand the strengths and weaknesses of MODIS data for crop-type mapping, we used MODIS time-series imagery to map the sub-pixel fractional crop area for four major crop types (rice, corn, soybean and wheat) at 500-m spatial resolution for Heilongjiang province, one of the most important grain-production regions in China where recent agricultural land use change has been rapid and pronounced. To do this, a random forest regression (RF-g) model was constructed to estimate the percentage of each sub-pixel crop type in 2006, 2011 and 2016. Crop type maps generated through expert visual interpretation of high spatial resolution images (i.e., Landsat and SPOT data) were used to calibrate the regression model. Five different time series of vegetation indices (155 features) derived from different spectral channels of MODIS land surface reflectance (MOD09A1) data were used as candidate features for the RF-g model. An out-of-bag strategy and backward elimination approach was applied to select the optimal spectra-temporal feature subset for each crop type. The resulting crop maps

  19. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. New type of Piezoresistive Pressure Sensors for Environments with Rapidly Changing Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tykhan Myroslav

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The theoretical aspects of a new type of piezo-resistive pressure sensors for environments with rapidly changing temperatures are presented. The idea is that the sensor has two identical diaphragms which have different coefficients of linear thermal expansion. Therefore, when measuring pressure in environments with variable temperature, the diaphragms will have different deflection. This difference can be used to make appropriate correction of the sensor output signal and, thus, to increase accuracy of measurement. Since physical principles of sensors operation enable fast correction of the output signal, the sensor can be used in environments with rapidly changing temperature, which is its essential advantage. The paper presents practical implementation of the proposed theoretical aspects and the results of testing the developed sensor.

  1. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

    2012-07-01

    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  2. Plan climate 2003 Group Agriculture - Forest - By-products, 12 propositions to fight against the climatic change in the agriculture sector; Plan climat 2003 Groupe Agriculture - Foret - Produits derives, 12 propositions pour lutter contre le changement climatique dans le secteur de l'agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couturier, Ch.; Bochu, J.L.; Pointereau, Ph.; Doublet, S.

    2003-07-01

    These propositions have been elaborated by the Salengro association in the framework of the Plan Climate 2003, at the ADEME request. These measures aims to fight against the climatic change in the agriculture domain: tractors fuels, energy mastery, renewable energies in fossil fuels substitution, wood buildings, hedges and linear afforestation, nitrogen balance equilibrium, agriculture policy. (A.L.B.)

  3. Historical changes in dispersed kopanitse land type and changes in use of agricultural land on Kysuce region example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barančok Peter

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Territory of Kysuce is characterised by a high proportion of the traditional agricultural landscape (TAL, which occupy almost 12% of the area. Two types of TAL were allocated here. The first type is represented by TAL with dispersed settlement. The second type is represented by TAL of arable land and grassland landscape. The largest representation has typical forms of anthropogenic relief (FAR. TALs represent the most diverse mosaic of man-made habitats and natural habitats too. In the past, there were the largest representations of arable land and regularly mown meadows. Currently, these areas are dominated by abandoned meadows (fallow meadows, occasionally grazed pastures and meadows. Arable land is represented only minimally. The large part of areas is overgrown by non-forest woody vegetation or passes to the forest vegetation. In this process of landscape changes, significant changes in biodiversity of the areas are realised. Successively, the species of segetal and ruderal vegetation are less represented and species of forest vegetation obtained greater representation. In the process of mapping and evaluation, FAR - shape and orientation of plots, types of balks and some of their basic characteristics - were monitored.

  4. How will climate change affect spatial planning in agricultural and natural environments? Examples from three Dutch case study regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blom-Zandstra, Margaretha; Schaap, Ben; Paulissen, Maurice; Agricola, Herman

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.

  5. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  7. Linking field observations, Landsat and MODIS data to estimate agricultural change in European Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Beurs, K. M.; Ioffe, G.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural reform has been one of the most important anthropogenic change processes in European Russia that has been unfolding since the formal collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. Widespread land abandonment is perhaps the most vivid side effect of the reform, even visible in synoptic imagery. Currently, Russia is transitioning into a country with an internal "archipelago" of islands of productive agriculture around cities embedded in a matrix of unproductive, abandoned lands. This heterogeneous spatial pattern is mainly driven by depopulation of the least favorable parts of the countryside, where "least favorable" is a function of fertility, remoteness, and their interaction. In this work we provide a satellite, GIS and field based overview of the current agricultural developments in Russia and look beyond the unstable period immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. We apply Landsat images in one of Russia's oblasts to create a detailed land cover map. We then use a logistic model to link the Landsat land cover map with the inter-annual variability in key phenological parameters calculated from MODIS to derive the percent of cropland per 500m MODIS pixel. By evaluating the phenological characteristics of the MODIS curves for each year we determine whether a pixel was actually cropped or left fallow. A comparison of satellite-estimated cropped areas with regional statistics (by rayon) revealed that the satellite estimates are highly correlated with the regional statistics for both arable lands and successfully cropped areas. We use the crop maps to determine the number of times a particular area was cropped between 2002 and 2009 by summing all the years with crops per pixel. This variable provides a good indication about the intensification and de-intensification of the Russian croplands over the last decade. We have visited several rural areas in Russia and we link the satellite data with information acquired through field interviews

  8. Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri, E-mail: d.pappas@ttu.edu

    2016-09-14

    Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. - Highlights: • Microfluidic system switches rapidly between normoxia and hypoxia (5 min). • Observation of rapid adaptation of PC3 cells to hypoxia and normoxia (30 min). • Drug susceptibility in tumor cells restored after chip switched to normoxia for 30 min.

  9. The impact of climate change on agriculture and related resources in the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in the four Great Plains states Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (MINK), using the anomalously hot and dry weather of the 1930s as a model for climate in the year 2030 and a mechanistic crop simulation model known as the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), are described. EPIC was modified for climate impact analysis by compiling data sets providing detailed descriptions of farms representative of the MINK region, representing the effect of increased carbon dioxide on crop water use and photosynthetic efficiency, and incorporating daily temperature and precipitation data, monthly solar radiation and humidity levels. Technologies assumed to become available include advances in breeding and biotechnology to increase harvest index, boosting of photosynthetic efficiency, and advances in pest management. If no technological adjustment was incorporated, corn yielded 20% less than baseline, soybeans 15% less and sorghum 8% less. Wheat and alfalfa yielded slightly higher. Incorporation of technological advances greatly reduced negative effects of climate change, with yields raised above baseline for every crop but corn

  10. Hydrogeology and potential effects of changes in water use, Carson Desert agricultural area, Churchill County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Douglas K.; Johnson, Ann K.; Welch, Alan H.

    1996-01-01

    Operating Criteria and Procedures for Newlands Project irrigation and Public Law 101-618 could result in reductions in surface water used for agriculture in the Carson Desert, potentially affecting ground-water supplies from shallow, intermediate, and basalt aquifers. A near-surface zone could exist at the top of the shallow aquifer near the center and eastern parts of the basin where underlying clay beds inhibit vertical flow and could limit the effects of changes in water use. In the basalt aquifer, water levels have declined about 10 feet from pre-pumping levels, and chloride and arsenic concentrations have increased. Conceptual models of the basin suggest that changes in water use in the western part of the basin would probably affect recharge to the shallow, intermediate, and basalt aquifers. Lining canals and removing land from production could cause water-level declines greater than 10 feet in the shallow aquifer up to 2 miles from lined canals. Removing land from production could cause water levels to decline from 4 to 17 feet, depending on the distribution of specific yield in the basin and the amount of water presently applied to irrigated fields. Where wells pump from a near-surface zone of the shallow aquifer, water level declines might not greatly affect pumping wells where the thickness of the zone is greatest, but could cause wells to go dry where the zone is thin.

  11. The impact of macroeconomic changes on the business decisions of managers in agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tasić Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the greatest attention was paid to the specific problems faced by managers in agriculture. In order to survive in the market and respond to the challenges that lie ahead of them, they first have to look at the analysis of the macroeconomic environment before making a business decision. Our managers in agriculture should be primarily facing export strategy of agricultural products. As is now self-financing of agricultural production difficult to achieve, managers in agriculture are resorting to alternative sources of funding where it is necessary to find the optimal ratio of own and borrowed capital with the objective of positive operating. In order to efficiently produce and export their products require a state subsidy, given the lack of state support managers in agriculture need to meet the additional capital to bank loans.

  12. RAPID SPECTRAL CHANGES OF CYGNUS X-1 IN THE LOW/HARD STATE WITH SUZAKU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamada, S.; Makishima, K. [Cosmic Radiation Laboratory, Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN), Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Negoro, H. [Department of Physics, College of Science and Technology, Nihon University, 1-8 Kanda-Surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8308 (Japan); Torii, S.; Noda, H. [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Mineshige, S. [Department of Astronomy, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

    2013-04-20

    Rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray on a timescale down to {approx}0.1 s are studied by applying a ''shot analysis'' technique to the Suzaku observations of the black hole binary Cygnus X-1, performed on 2008 April 18 during the low/hard state. We successfully obtained the shot profiles, covering 10-200 keV with the Suzaku HXD-PIN and HXD-GSO detector. It is notable that the 100-200 keV shot profile is acquired for the first time owing to the HXD-GSO detector. The intensity changes in a time-symmetric way, though the hardness changes in a time-asymmetric way. When the shot-phase-resolved spectra are quantified with the Compton model, the Compton y-parameter and the electron temperature are found to decrease gradually through the rising phase of the shot, while the optical depth appears to increase. All the parameters return to their time-averaged values immediately within 0.1 s past the shot peak. We have not only confirmed this feature previously found in energies below {approx}60 keV, but also found that the spectral change is more prominent in energies above {approx}100 keV, implying the existence of some instant mechanism for direct entropy production. We discuss possible interpretations of the rapid spectral changes in the hard X-ray band.

  13. [Developmental changes of rapid automatized naming and Hiragana reading of Japanese in elementary-school children].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Tomoka; Inagaki, Masumi; Gunji, Atsuko; Yatabe, Kiyomi; Kita, Yosuke; Kaga, Makiko; Gotoh, Takaaki; Koike, Toshihide

    2011-11-01

    Two hundred and seven Japanese elementary school children aged from 6 (Grade 1) to 12 (Grade 6) years old were tested for their abilities to name numbers and pictured objects along with reading Hiragana characters and words. These children all showed typical development and their classroom teachers judged that they were not having any problems with reading or writing. The children were randomly divided into two groups, the first group was assigned to two naming tasks;the rapid automatized naming (RAN) of "numbers" and "pictured objects," the second group was assigned to two rapid alternative stimulus (RAS) naming tasks using numbers and pictured objects. All children were asked to perform two reading tasks that were written in Hiragana script: single mora reading task and four syllable word reading task. The total articulation time for naming and reading and performance in terms of accuracy were measured for each task. Developmental changes in these variables were evaluated. The articulation time was significantly longer for the first graders, and it gradually shortened as they moved through to the upper grades in all tasks. The articulation time reached a plateau in the 5th grade for the number naming, while gradual change continued after drastic change in the lower grades for the pictured object naming. The articulation times for the single mora reading and RAN of numbers correlated strongly. The articulation time for the RAS naming was significantly longer compared to that for the RAN, though there were very few errors. The RAS naming showed the highest correlation with the four syllable word reading. This study demonstrated that the performance in rapid automatized naming of numbers and pictures were closely related with performance on reading tasks. Thus Japanese children with reading disorders such as developmental dyslexia should also be evaluated for rapid automatized naming.

  14. Observation of reversible, rapid changes in drug susceptibility of hypoxic tumor cells in a microfluidic device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germain, Todd; Ansari, Megan; Pappas, Dimitri

    2016-09-14

    Hypoxia is a major stimulus for increased drug resistance and for survival of tumor cells. Work from our group and others has shown that hypoxia increases resistance to anti-cancer compounds, radiation, and other damage-pathway cytotoxic agents. In this work we utilize a microfluidic culture system capable of rapid switching of local oxygen concentrations to determine changes in drug resistance in prostate cancer cells. We observed rapid adaptation to hypoxia, with drug resistance to 2 μM staurosporine established within 30 min of hypoxia. Annexin-V/Sytox Green apoptosis assays over 9 h showed 78.0% viability, compared to 84.5% viability in control cells (normoxic cells with no staurosporine). Normoxic cells exposed to the same staurosporine concentration had a viability of 48.6% after 9 h. Hypoxia adaptation was rapid and reversible, with Hypoxic cells treated with 20% oxygen for 30 min responding to staurosporine with 51.6% viability after drug treatment for 9 h. Induction of apoptosis through the receptor-mediated pathway, which bypasses anti-apoptosis mechanisms induced by hypoxia, resulted in 39.4 ± 7% cell viability. The rapid reversibility indicates co-treatment of oxygen with anti-cancer compounds may be a potential therapeutic target. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Bird communities as indicators of the impact of changes in agriculture in the Mar Menor catchment area (Murcia, SE Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farinos, P.; Robledano, F.; Jimenez, M. V.; Zapata Perez, V. M.

    2009-01-01

    Mediterranean coastal landscapes have suffered significant changes along the last decades due to agricultural intensification and tourism, that have altered the hydrological regime of wetland, as ha occurred in the Mar Menor (Southeast Spain). Such alterations and the consequent changes in nutrient flows are threatening the conservation of these wetlands. We analyze the effects of these ecosystems changes on the bird assemblages, focusing on two especially sensitive communities: water birds and steppe passerines. (Author) 2 refs.

  16. Vulnerability of U.S. Agriculture and Energy Sectors to Changes in Climate and Socioeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Liu, L.; Bramer, L.; Fortin, D.; Huang, M.; Hathaway, J.; Kyle, P.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Liu, Y.; Patel, P.; Pulsipher, T.; Rice, J.; Tesfa, T. K.; Vernon, C. R.; Zhou, Y.

    2014-12-01

    A prominent integrated assessment model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), has been coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM) of the Community Earth system model (CESM) to assess the vulnerability of the US agriculture and energy sectors to future water shortages under changing climate and socioeconomics. This study utilizes the regionalized version of GCAM for the U.S. with 50-state. GCAM-USA includes a detailed representation of water demands and tracks them at multiple spatial scales and annual scale. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and 1/8o spatial resolution for input to CLM, which has been coupled to a river routing model and generic water management model applicable globally at 1/2o resolution and regionally at 1/8o resolution. The coupled modeling framework demonstrated reasonable ability to simulate the historical flow regulation and water supply over the continental U.S. The coupled modeling framework has been used to investigate: 1) Which water use sector (agriculture or energy) and subbasins in the conterminous U.S. will experience water deficits in future decades; 2) What are the drivers for the deficit (i.e., water availability, water demands, or both); 3) Will climate mitigation policies alleviate or exacerbate the situation; and lastly 4) How will the frequency , severity, and spatial extent of water deficits (hot spots) evolve under a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail versus a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward renewables and expansion of bioenergy productions. Results show that irrigation will face greater water deficit overall except in the northeastern U.S. Water deficit is greatest in the western U.S. except the Pacific Northwest. Human footprints on the regulated flows are most pronounced over the Rio Grande, Colorado, Great

  17. Denitrification in agriculturally impacted streams: seasonal changes in structure and function of the bacterial community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Manis

    Full Text Available Denitrifiers remove fixed nitrogen from aquatic environments and hydrologic conditions are one potential driver of denitrification rate and denitrifier community composition. In this study, two agriculturally impacted streams in the Sugar Creek watershed in Indiana, USA with different hydrologic regimes were examined; one stream is seasonally ephemeral because of its source (tile drainage, whereas the other stream has permanent flow. Additionally, a simulated flooding experiment was performed on the riparian benches of the ephemeral stream during a dry period. Denitrification activity was assayed using the chloramphenicol amended acetylene block method and bacterial communities were examined based on quantitative PCR and terminal restriction length polymorphisms of the nitrous oxide reductase (nosZ and 16S rRNA genes. In the stream channel, hydrology had a substantial impact on denitrification rates, likely by significantly lowering water potential in sediments. Clear patterns in denitrification rates were observed among pre-drying, dry, and post-drying dates; however, a less clear scenario was apparent when analyzing bacterial community structure suggesting that denitrifier community structure and denitrification rate were not strongly coupled. This implies that the nature of the response to short-term hydrologic changes was physiological rather than increases in abundance of denitrifiers or changes in composition of the denitrifier community. Flooding of riparian bench soils had a short-term, transient effect on denitrification rate. Our results imply that brief flooding of riparian zones is unlikely to contribute substantially to removal of nitrate (NO3- and that seasonal drying of stream channels has a negative impact on NO3- removal, particularly because of the time lag required for denitrification to rebound. This time lag is presumably attributable to the time required for the denitrifiers to respond physiologically rather than a change

  18. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  19. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  20. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  1. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

    2012-04-01

    This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

  2. Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Jake M

    2013-09-22

    A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

  3. Land cover, land use, and climate change impacts on agriculture in southern Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontgis, Caitlin

    Global environmental change is rapidly changing the surface of the Earth in varied and irrevocable ways. Across the world, land cover and land use have been altered to accommodate the needs of expanding populations, and climate change has required plant, animal, and human communities to adapt to novel climates. These changes have created unprecedented new ecosystems that affect the planet in ways that are not fully understood and difficult to predict. Of utmost concern is food security, and whether agro-ecosystems will adapt and respond to widespread changes so that growing global populations can be sustained. To understand how one staple food crop, rice, responds to global environmental change in southern Vietnam, this dissertation aims to accomplish three main tasks: (1) quantify the rate and form of urban and peri-urban expansion onto cropland using satellite imagery and demographic data, (2) track changes to annual rice paddy harvests using time series satellite data, and (3) model the potential effects of climate change on rice paddies by incorporating farmer interview data into a crop systems model. The results of these analyses show that the footprint of Ho Chi Minh City grew nearly five times between 1990 and 2012. Mismatches between urban development and population growth suggest that peri-urbanization is driven by supply-side investment, and that much of this form of land expansion has occurred near major transit routes. In the nearby Mekong River Delta, triple-cropped rice paddy area doubled between 2000 and 2010, from one-third to two-thirds of rice fields, while paddy area expanded by about 10%. These results illustrate the intensification of farming practices since Vietnam liberalized its economy, yet it is not clear whether such practices are environmentally sustainable long-term. Although triple-cropped paddy fields have expanded, future overall production is estimated to decline without the effects of CO2 fertilization. Temperatures are anticipated

  4. Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions on Climate Change and the Use of Sustainable Agricultural Practices in the Chinyanja Triangle, Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clifton Makate

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In developing regions with high levels of poverty and a dependence on climate sensitive agriculture, studies focusing on climate change adaptation, planning, and policy processes, have gained relative importance over the years. This study assesses the impact of farmer perceptions regarding climate change on the use of sustainable agricultural practices as an adaptation strategy in the Chinyanja Triangle, Southern Africa. In this empirical approach, we adopt methods that account for the plausibility that unmeasured characteristics exist, which are correlated with perceptions and the adoption of Sustainable Agricultural Practices. We use a unique and representative dataset collected in December 2012 and June 2013, from smallholder farmers in the Chinyanja Triangle. The results indicate that farmer’s perceptions significantly influence the use of sustainable agricultural practices. Specifically, we established that farmer perceptions considerably impact the use of grain legume rotations, inorganic fertilizers, compost, and farmyard manure. Our results highlight the need for a serious and perhaps equal consideration of farmer perceptions regarding climate change, as important inputs to climate change adaptation policies targeted at enhancing climatic resilience in smallholder farming communities. This is plausible as the adaptation and pliability of farmers to the effects of climate change should be a social process involving the collective efforts from various stakeholders.

  5. More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

    2013-02-01

    Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

  6. Rapid area change in pitch-up manoeuvres of small perching birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polet, D T; Rival, D E

    2015-10-26

    Rapid pitch-up has been highlighted as a mechanism to generate large lift and drag during landing manoeuvres. However, pitching rates had not been measured previously in perching birds, and so the direct applicability of computations and experiments to observed behaviour was not known. We measure pitch rates in a small, wild bird (the black-capped chickadee; Poecile atricapillus), and show that these rates are within the parameter range used in experiments. Pitching rates were characterized by the shape change number, a metric comparing the rate of frontal area increase to acceleration. Black-capped chickadees increase the shape change number during perching in direct proportion to their total kinetic and potential energy at the start of the manoeuvre. The linear relationship between dissipated energy and shape change number is in accordance with a simple analytical model developed for two-dimensional pitching and decelerating airfoils. Black-capped chickadees use a wing pitch-up manoeuvre during perching to dissipate energy quickly while maintaining lift and drag through rapid area change. It is suggested that similar pitch-and-decelerate manoeuvres could be used to aid in the controlled, precise landings of small manoeuvrable air vehicles.

  7. Fighting for rents: agricultural