WorldWideScience

Sample records for rapidly changing agricultural

  1. Agriculture: Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  2. Changing closed agricultural policy communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Werkman, R.A.

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural policy networks have served as classic examples of closed policy communities facing pressure to open up. However, attempts to change them are slowly moving forward. The dialogues on Common Agricultural Policy reforms in which the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture is engaged with a range of

  3. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    S. Mark Howden; Jean-François Soussana; Francesco N. Tubiello; Netra Chhetri; Michael Dunlop; Holger Meinke

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently...

  4. POLITICS AND MARKETS IN THE ARTICULATION OF PREFERENCES FOR ATTRIBUTES OF THE RAPIDLY CHANGING FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL SECTORS: FRAMING THE ISSUES

    OpenAIRE

    Charles W. Abdalla; James D. Shaffer

    1997-01-01

    Industrialization of the food and agricultural sectors changes the pattern of external effects. Participants helped or harmed in the process attempt to influence outcomes through markets and politics. Decisions about property rights and boundaries determine benefits and burdens and the relative cost of animal agriculture in different jurisdictions. Prescriptions to redefine property rights are influenced by selective perception of rights to share in the benefits and be protected from costs. P...

  5. Changing external conditions require high levels of entrepreneurship in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.B.

    2004-01-01

    Society including markets and policies rapidly changes. Farmers or agricultural entrepreneurs need to become more flexible and develop strategies to pro-actively adapt their farm, product portfolio, networks, partnerships, knowledge systems, personal skills and competences to the changing external

  6. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  7. Climate Change: A Threat to Agricultural Production in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In recent times, climate change has generated a global issue of discourse, because of its potential effects on the human interest, including agriculture. It is observed that absence of rapid response strategies to both short and long term climate change, including climate variability will have significant effect on the agricultural ...

  8. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  9. Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Jieming; Dong, Wenjie; Wang, Shuyu; Fu, Yuqing

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; During 1949-2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country's eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

  10. Rapid detection of genetic modification for GMO monitoring in agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Sofija

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Transgenic technology has expanded the ways of new genetic variability creation. Genetically modified organisms (GMOs are organisms which total genome is altered in a way that could not happen in nature. GM crops recorded a steady increase in its share in agricultural production. However, for the most part, GMO in agriculture has been limited to two cultivars - soy and corn, and the two genetic modifications, the total herbicide resistance and pest of the Lepidoptera genus. In order to monitor cultivation and trade of GMOs, tests of different precision are used, qualitatively and/or quantitatively determining the presence of genetic modification. Tests for the rapid determination of the presence of GM are suitable, since they can be implemented quickly and accurately, in terms of declared sensitivity, outside or in the laboratory. The example of the use of rapid tests demonstrates their value in use for rapid and efficient monitoring.

  11. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  12. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural Systems in Madagascar. Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services ...

  13. Climate change and agricultural production | Offiong | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The threat of global environmental change has tended to focus on the possible impacts of a changing environment on agriculture and the implications for global food security. From a policy viewpoint, however, it is also difficult to understand the level to which agriculturally related activities may contribute to global-scale ...

  14. Changes in African smallholder agriculture in the twentieth century ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The first half of the twentieth century witnessed profound changes in smallholder agriculture in many parts of Africa. There was a rapid spread of exotic staple food crops such as maize, cassava and sweet potatoes. In many cases the adoption of these crops led to increases in productivity as they replaced millets and ...

  15. The Implications of Climate Changes over Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mioara Chirita

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents a great importance in all sectors of the economy, but the agricultural sector is directly influenced by them. These changes have different causes and effects, but the agriculture is known to be a strategic and dynamic sector, which is considered also difficult and a priority of the economy. The higher crop yields guarantee prosperity, economic and financial growth for many countries in the world. The paper aims is to develop an overview on the implications of climate changes in agriculture over the last few years in Europe.

  16. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  17. Risk management in agriculture under climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Njegomir Vladimir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural production is exposed to the effects of various risks, of which the production risks represent its specificity, given that they stem from the fact that the production is done outdoor and that it encompass management of living beings. Climate changes directly affect the production risks of agricultural production. In the literature, climate change are relatively sufficient researched but there are scarce studies that deal with the theme of risk management in agricultural production and in particular the management of risks under climate changes. With this in mind as the goal of the paper we have determined the need to point out on the importance and forms of agricultural risk management under climate changes. In an effort to achieve the goal, in the paper we first point out to the basic characteristics of agricultural production risk management and then we point to the application of preventive measures, the role of the state as well as the comparative role of insurance. As the impact of climate changes have strongly negative impact on insurance companies that provide insurance for agricultural risks, we consider the issue of whether the conclusion of agricultural insurance contracts should be mandatory or voluntary.

  18. Changing Structure and Location of Australian Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Longmire, Jim

    1995-01-01

    Australian agriculture has undergone considerable change in structure and location. However, the broad rate of structural change in Australian agriculture is found to be not significantly different from that of other OECD countries. A major reduction in small farms has occurred and the number of medium and large farms has grown discernibly. Adjustment has been especially strong in cropping, dairying and the intensive sectors. The possible emergence of a farm adjustment problem in Australia's ...

  19. Declining agricultural production in rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions: policy tradeoffs and sustainability indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dozier, André Q.; Arabi, Mazdak; Wostoupal, Benjamin C.; Goemans, Christopher G.; Zhang, Yao; Paustian, Keith

    2017-08-01

    In rapidly urbanizing semi-arid regions, increasing amounts of historically irrigated cropland lies permanently fallowed due to water court policies as agricultural water rights are voluntarily being sold to growing cities. This study develops an integrative framework for assessing the effects of population growth and land use change on agricultural production and evaluating viability of alternative management strategies, including alternative agricultural transfer methods, regional water ownership restrictions, and urban conservation. A partial equilibrium model of a spatially-diverse regional water rights market is built in application of the framework to an exemplary basin. The model represents agricultural producers as profit-maximizing suppliers and municipalities as cost-minimizing consumers of water rights. Results indicate that selling an agricultural water right today is worth up to two times more than 40 years of continued production. All alternative policies that sustain agricultural cropland and crop production decrease total agricultural profitability by diminishing water rights sales revenue, but in doing so, they also decrease municipal water acquisition costs. Defining good indicators and incorporating adequate spatial and temporal detail are critical to properly analyzing policy impacts. To best improve agricultural profit from production and sale of crops, short-term solutions include alternative agricultural transfer methods while long-term solutions incorporate urban conservation.

  20. Climate Change Mitigation: The Role of Agriculture | Obiora ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    agriculture toward climate change, the effect of climate change on agriculture and the mitigation potentials of agriculture on climate change. Findings reveal that agriculture contributes to climate change majorly by the emission of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon (iv) oxide. Climate change affects agriculture through ...

  1. The Change Path of Agricultural Production Outsourcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The system of agricultural production outsourcing is a breakpoint for the development of agriculture and immigration worker’s urbanization. The analysis based on framework of the Institutional Change reveals that as a whole,the outsourcing system of agricultural production improves the welfare of society effectively. To some extents,it also can solve the problem of food security. The rural transferring labor-forces who realize the institutional change in the initial stage are is the first Action Group to gain the potential benefits. Local governments are a breakpoint of induced institutional change, which find potential benefits and then change the role of system changes. The central government is in dominant statue during the whole change. The outsourcing is a kind of improvement to the Family Contracted System, also an adaption to an imperfect Chinese rural social security. So the outsourcing has a positive meaning in the rural area.

  2. Climate change risks for African agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-03-15

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

  3. Climate change, society issues and sustainable agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtfouse, Eric

    2009-01-01

    Despite its prediction 100 years ago by scientists studying CO2, man-made climate change has been officially recognised only in 2007 by the Nobel prize committee. Climate changes since the industrial revolution have already deeply impacted ecosystems. I report major impacts of climate change on waters, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, and economy in Europe. The lesson of the climate change story is that humans do not learn from scientists until it really hurts. Furthermore, all society is...

  4. Climate change and agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeteson, J.J.; Verhagen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere resulting in rising global temperatures and sea levels. Agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through the emission of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Continuation of

  5. Climate change impacts on global agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Betts, Richard; Falloon, Pete; Wiltshire, Andy; Tol, Richard S J

    Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the

  6. Farm functionality changes in relation to changes in Agricultural policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Peter Stubkjær; Vejre, Henrik; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2015-01-01

    in details. The structural changes in agriculture are well accounted for in national and European statistics, however changes in farm functions have also occurred. It has been suggested that European agriculture nowadays are undergoing changes from monofunctional focus on production to a wider...... multifunctional scope. The objective of increased agricultural multifunctionality has been included actively in EU agricultural policies which may be one of the drivers behind changes. However, from a functional point of view, these changes have are not precisely accounted for or quantified. The paper presents...... a functional focused analysis of the temporal changes in four selected farm functions – production, residence, habitat and recreation. The studies are based on data from an interview study conducted in the end 1990s and in 2008 in three study area in Denmark. To quantify the functional changes an indicator...

  7. Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina

    2013-07-01

    The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short

  8. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  9. Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture. Increasing carbon dioxide: Good for most crops. Increase in mean temperature: orter crop durations, higher evapotranspiration, other effects on growth and yield. Intermittent periods of extreme heat stress: highly ...

  10. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  11. Issues in Modelling Agriculture Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Amarendra Pratap; Narayanan, Krishnan

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture stands as most sensitive economic activity to climate variations. Modelling climate-agriculture relationship is one of the most researched issues in recent times. This paper reviews some of the issues regarding modelling agriculture response to climate change.

  12. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. The changing climate presents real ... impacts over the coming years: Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation (PDF, ...

  13. Rapid, global demographic expansions after the origins of agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gignoux, Christopher R; Henn, Brenna M; Mountain, Joanna L

    2011-04-12

    The invention of agriculture is widely assumed to have driven recent human population growth. However, direct genetic evidence for population growth after independent agricultural origins has been elusive. We estimated population sizes through time from a set of globally distributed whole mitochondrial genomes, after separating lineages associated with agricultural populations from those associated with hunter-gatherers. The coalescent-based analysis revealed strong evidence for distinct demographic expansions in Europe, southeastern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa within the past 10,000 y. Estimates of the timing of population growth based on genetic data correspond neatly to dates for the initial origins of agriculture derived from archaeological evidence. Comparisons of rates of population growth through time reveal that the invention of agriculture facilitated a fivefold increase in population growth relative to more ancient expansions of hunter-gatherers.

  14. Agricultural nutrient loadings to the freshwater environment: the role of climate change and socioeconomic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia

    2017-10-01

    Human activities, in particular agricultural production, interfere with natural cycles of nutrient elements, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), leading to growing concerns about water quality degradation related to excessive nutrient loadings. Increases in agricultural production in response to population growth and wealth generation further increase risks associated with nutrient pollution. This paper presents results from projections of nutrient exports from global agricultural crop and pasture systems to the water environment generated using a process-based modeling approach. Brazil, China, India and the United States account for more than half of estimated global N and P loadings in the base year. Each country boasts large agriculture centers where high calculated loading values are found. Rapid growth in global agricultural nutrient loadings is projected. Growth of agricultural pollution loading is fastest in the group of low-income developing countries and loading growth rates also vary substantially with climate change scenario. Counter measures need to be taken to address the environmental risks associated with the projected rapid increase of agricultural nutrient loadings.

  15. Rapid detection of genetic modification for GMO monitoring in agriculture

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Petrović Sofija; Dimitrijević Miodrag

    2015-01-01

    .... However, for the most part, GMO in agriculture has been limited to two cultivars - soy and corn, and the two genetic modifications, the total herbicide resistance and pest of the Lepidoptera genus...

  16. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  17. effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in the federal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-10-18

    Oct 18, 2012 ... Key words: Agriculture, Climate Change, Crop yield, Federal Capital Territory. Introduction. Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes both of which take place on a global scale. Global warming is projected to have significant impact on conditions affecting agriculture, including temperature,.

  18. impact of projected climate change on agricultural production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    Future climate change may present an additional challenge to agricultural production in the region because it is the most vulnerable to climate change due to ... The APSIM Model. Agricultural Production. Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a software tool that enables sub-models to be linked to simulate agricultural systems.

  19. The National Agriculture Imagery Program Change 2002-2017

    Data.gov (United States)

    Farm Service Agency, Department of Agriculture — The National Agriculture Imagery Program Change 2002-2017 is a web mapping application hosted on the ArcGIS online FSA Organizational Subscription. This web...

  20. Climate change impacts on the U.S. agricultural economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, You; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei

    2015-09-01

    The most important aggregate measure of the long run health of the productive component of the agricultural economy is agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Between 1948 and 2011, average annual input growth in US agriculture averaged approximately 0.07% while annual average output growth averaged roughly 1.5%. That translates into an annual average agricultural TFP growth rate of approximately 1.43%. That growth has led to a remarkable expansion of the productive ability of the US agricultural sector. However, climate change poses unprecedented challenges to U.S. agricultural production because of the sensitivity of agricultural productivity and costs to changing climate conditions. Some studies have examined the effect of climate change on U.S. agriculture. But none has investigated how climate affects the overall U.S. agricultural productivity. This study intends to find out climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural TFP change (TFPC). By correlation analysis with data in 1979-2005, we found that precipitation and temperature had significant positive or negative correlations with U.S. agricultural TFPC. Those correlation coefficients ranged from -0.8 to 0.8. And significant correlations, whether positive or negative, existed in different regions and different seasons. This is important information for policy-makers in decisions to support U.S. agriculture sustainability.

  1. Outlook on Agricultural Changes and its Drivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Vuuren, Detlef; Ochola, Washington; Riha, Susan

    2009-01-01

    The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development (IAASTD) looks realistically at how we could effectively use agriculture/AKST to help us meet development and sustainability goals. An unprecedented three-year collaborative effort, the IAASTD involved...

  2. Structural change in Dutch agriculture; impact on farm level statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrolijk, H.C.J.; Poppe, K.J.

    2016-01-01

    Structural change has been a constant factor in agriculture, the Netherlands included. For decades the number of farms has decreased and the size of farms has increased. Agricultural statistics help to analyse and understand structural change, but at the same time structural change affects and to

  3. The red queen in the corn: agricultural weeds as models of rapid adaptive evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigueira, C C; Olsen, K M; Caicedo, A L

    2013-04-01

    Weeds are among the greatest pests of agriculture, causing billions of dollars in crop losses each year. As crop field management practices have changed over the past 12 000 years, weeds have adapted in turn to evade human removal. This evolutionary change can be startlingly rapid, making weeds an appealing system to study evolutionary processes that occur over short periods of time. An understanding of how weeds originate and adapt is needed for successful management; however, relatively little emphasis has been placed on genetically characterizing these systems. Here, we review the current literature on agricultural weed origins and their mechanisms of adaptation. Where possible, we have included examples that have been genetically well characterized. Evidence for three possible, non-mutually exclusive weed origins (from wild species, crop-wild hybrids or directly from crops) is discussed with respect to what is known about the microevolutionary signatures that result from these processes. We also discuss what is known about the genetic basis of adaptive traits in weeds and the range of genetic mechanisms that are responsible. With a better understanding of genetic mechanisms underlying adaptation in weedy species, we can address the more general process of adaptive evolution and what can be expected as we continue to apply selective pressures in agroecosystems around the world.

  4. Agricultural Development, Land Change, and Livelihoods in Tanzania's Kilombero Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connors, John Patrick

    The Kilombero Valley lies at the intersection of a network of protected areas that cross Tanzania. The wetlands and woodlands of the Valley, as well as the forest of surrounding mountains are abundant in biodiversity and are considered to be critical areas for conservation. This area, however, is also the home to more than a half million people, primarily poor smallholder farmers. In an effort to support the livelihoods and food security of these farmers and the larger Tanzanian population, the country has recently targeted a series of programs to increase agricultural production in the Kilombero Valley and elsewhere in the country. Bridging concepts and methods from land change science, political ecology, and sustainable livelihoods, I present an integrated assessment of the linkages between development and conservation efforts in the Kilombero Valley and the implications for food security. This dissertation uses three empirical studies to understand the process of development in the Kilombero Valley and to link the priorities and perceptions of conservation and development efforts to the material outcomes in food security and land change. The first paper of this dissertation examines the changes in land use in the Kilombero Valley between 1997 and 2014 following the privatization of agriculture and the expansion of Tanzania's Kilimo Kwanza program. Remote sensing analysis reveals a two-fold increase in agricultural area during this short time, largely at the expense of forest. Protected areas in some parts of the Valley appear to be deterring deforestation, but rapid agricultural growth, particularly surrounding a commercial rice plantation, has led to loss of extant forest and sustained habitat fragmentation. The second paper focuses examines livelihood strategies in the Valley and claims regarding the role of agrobiodiversity in food security. The results of household survey reveal no difference or lower food security among households that diversify their

  5. Integrating climate change into agricultural research for development in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Anderson, Simon

    2011-09-15

    African agriculture is already struggling to meet increasing demand for food. Climate change, which will alter agroecological conditions and looks set to arrest and decrease agricultural yields on the continent, will make it even harder to achieve food security. Boosting agricultural productivity in Africa, especially in the face of climate change, cannot be achieved without the benefits of cutting edge science. Advances in technology development and transfer, capacity building and policy research must be harnessed by developing and disseminating relevant strategies and technologies, and improving policy environments. The European Initiative for Agricultural Research for Development (EIARD), which facilitates and coordinates European policy and support for agricultural research for development, must integrate climate change into its activities and ensure that agricultural research for development and climate change adaptation are not disjointed. This demands a more strategic and coordinated approach from the initiative — one that reflects African realities, responds to African priorities for adaptation and development, and makes the best use of limited resources.

  6. A rapid Raman detection of deoxynivalenol in agricultural products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Jing; Sun, Chuanwen; Guo, Xiaoyu; Yang, Tianxi; Wang, Hui; Fu, Shuyue; Li, Chuanchuan; Yang, Haifeng

    2017-04-15

    Mycotoxin results in financial damage and considerable safety risks. In this paper, the possibility of portable Raman system-based surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) for a rapid detection of deoxynivalenol (DON) a mycotoxin in cereals was investigated. Under an optimized condition, SERS analysis for pure DON solution has a wide dynamic concentration range from 10-7M to 10-2M with the limit of detection (LOD) down to 100nM. Density functional theory (DFT) analysis at the level of B3LYP/6-311++G(d, p) was also preformed for vibrational assignment. For practical application, the LOD of the proposed Raman method for both DON-contaminated corns and kidney beans were validated as 10-6M and the LOD for DON-contaminated oats was 10-4M. As a perspective, the SERS-based technology could be developed into an alternatively promising assay for on-field detection of DON residues at various cereals due to it high sensitivity and selectivity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Drivers of change in global agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazell, Peter; Wood, Stanley

    2008-02-12

    As a result of agricultural intensification, more food is produced today than needed to feed the entire world population and at prices that have never been so low. Yet despite this success and the impact of globalization and increasing world trade in agriculture, there remain large, persistent and, in some cases, worsening spatial differences in the ability of societies to both feed themselves and protect the long-term productive capacity of their natural resources. This paper explores these differences and develops a countryxfarming systems typology for exploring the linkages between human needs, agriculture and the environment, and for assessing options for addressing future food security, land use and ecosystem service challenges facing different societies around the world.

  8. Effects of climate change on agricultural production and rural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is need for sustainable agriculture to meet the increasing demand for food for the growing population in Nigeria. In order to ensure food security, we need to understand the climatic changes around us and how it affects agricultural productivity and rural livelihood. Climate change and global warming is the current ...

  9. Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate Change Impact on Togo's Agriculture Performance: A Ricardian Analysis Based on Time Series Data. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Conclusively, the impact of climate change on agriculture seems to be varied with the temperature and precipitation in different seasons. Climate ...

  10. Agricultural Land-Use Change and Disappearance of Farmlands

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ABSTRACT. This study assessed agricultural land-use change in. Kaduna metropolis. This study combined the use of remote sensing and geographic information system. (GIS) application to ascertain the rate of agricultural land-use change from 1980 to 2012 in the study area. The four imageries (Landsat MSS 1980, ...

  11. Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reilly, J.; Baethgen, W.; Chege, F.E.; Geijn, van de S.C.; Lin Erda,; Iglesias, A.; Kenny, G.; Patterson, D.; Rogasik, J.; Rötter, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Sombroek, W.; Westbrook, J.; Bachelet, D.; Brklacich, M.; Dämmgen, U.; Howden, M.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter deals with sensitivities, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. It covers: the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and atmospheric constituents on crop yield, soils, agricultural pests, and livestock; estimates of yield and production

  12. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. The changing climate presents real threats to U.S. agricultural ... landowners, but for all Americans. Land managers across the country are already feeling the pressures of a ...

  13. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  14. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Trade Have feedback on the new USDA.gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting ... pest cycles. The following two assessments project climate impacts over the coming years: Climate Change and Agriculture ...

  15. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... for land managers to respond to drought, heat stress, floods, pests, and changes in the growing season. ... pest cycles. The following two assessments project climate impacts over the coming years: Climate Change and Agriculture ...

  16. Trajectories of agricultural change in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falconnier, G.N.

    2016-01-01

    Key words: longitudinal study, farm typology, food self-sufficiency, income, legumes, ex-ante analysis, participatory research, scenario. Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa provides basis of rural livelihoods and food security, yet farmers have to cope with land constraints, variable

  17. Trajectories of agricultural change in southern Mali

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Falconnier, G.N.

    2016-01-01

    Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa provides basis of rural livelihoods and food security, yet farmers have to cope with land constraints, variable rainfall and unstable institutional support. This study integrates a diversity of approaches (household typology and understanding of farm

  18. African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited.

  19. Climate change impacts on agriculture in Apulia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionello, Piero; Congedi, Letizia; Reale, Marco; Scarascia, Luca; Tanzarella, Annalisa

    2013-04-01

    This study describes the evolution of climate from recent past to the next decades in Apulia, a region in Southern Italy, and estimates its future impacts on its main agricultural products. The analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking typical Mediterranean products (wheat, olive oil and wine) to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In the past decades, wheat, olive oil and wine production records (the three main agricultural products in Apulia) show large inter-annual variabilityand an important fraction of it is explained by past climate variability. Regional Climate Model simulations show a large acceleration of the warming rate and a decrease of precipitation in the period 2001-2050. Results (considering no adaptation of crops) suggest that climate evolution in the first half of the 21st century would decrease wine production, have a small effect on wheat and increase olive oil production.

  20. Economic analysis of the effects of climate change on agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    . The results revealed that there has been an upward trend in Agricultural output over the years, and that the past level of changes in agricultural output has positive and significant effects on the present level of its economic performance. Also ...

  1. Climate Change Effects On Agricultural Pests: The Response of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user1

    Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Pests: The Response of Liriomyza Huidobrensis to. Drought Stressed Potato Plants ... amount of water available for agricultural production through its effects on rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil ..... Leaf age and life history variables of a leafminer: the case of Liriomyza trifolii on ...

  2. Agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sokoto State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although climate change is global threat, developing countries have been identified as most vulnerable owing to their low adaptive capacities. In Nigeria, while the impacts of climate cut across diverse sectors, agriculture remains the most susceptible due to the predominance of rainfed agriculture. This paper examines ...

  3. Agricultural land use changes according LPIS in Brno Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Vachuda

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Territorial changes of agriculture land use between 2008 and 2013 were studied in the Brno Metropolitan Area, consisting of the territory of 167 municipalities around the city of Brno, Czech Republic. The article describes the ways of thinking about land use changes and evaluates differences of land use changes between agriculture system LPIS and Cadastre. Analyses identify differences between databases and detected partial outdated data in Cadastre and therefore conclude, that the most common source is not in some cases precise to express the situation of decreases of agriculture land. The largest decreases were caused according to LPIS by a construction of solar power plants, sand quarries, and urbanization. The end of the article is focused on raising awareness about the possibilities of reducing the negative impact of changes in agricultural land, which emphasizes the education about land use changes irreversibility as the most important.

  4. Agriculture and water in Shunyi District, Beijing; results of a rapid diagnostic appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamphuis, B.M.; Jongbloed, A.W.; Keulen, van H.; Cheng, X.; Lu, C.

    2004-01-01

    Land use and agriculture in Shunyi District were studied in a Rapid Diagnostic Appraisal (RDA) held November 2003 in the frame of the project `Resource Management Options in the Greater Beijing Area`. Officials of governmental institutions in Shunyi were interviewed and during three days, a team of

  5. Climate change, diversified agriculture and adaptive capacity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Export-oriented sugar cane and pineapple plantation agriculture once dominated Hawaii's economy but over the latter half of the 20th Century, there was a rapid decline in the production of these crops as Hawaii's competitive advantage over foreign producers dwindled. The decline of the plantations c...

  6. Reinventing agricultural research : Changing context and moving targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struik, P.C.

    2006-01-01

    Future food security for the rapidly increasing human population is at stake because farmers need to produce more food on less land and with less water and energy. Natural resources will be less and less available for agriculture due to economic development, which diverts these resources to

  7. Introduction: Greening the countryside? Changing frameworks of EU agricultural policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Philip; Feindt, Peter H; Vihinen, Hilkka

    2010-01-01

    In response to wide-ranging criticism of agricultural policy, especially within Western industrialized countries, new frameworks of justification are emerging and new hybrid policy fields have been established to tackle some of the ‘externalities’ of agricultural support. However, institutional frameworks are proving slower to change, partly because this would require coordinated action across different levels of governance. Nevertheless, previously marginalized environmental concerns have successfully gained entrance to agricultural policy networks, while the intersection of trade liberalization and rural diversification have undermined the dominance of the productivist mindset in government. This gives rise to a plurality of policy actors and actions which defy the conventional categories of analysis of agricultural policy, calling for changing frameworks on the polity of agriculture too.

  8. Costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom [Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (United Kingdom); Dysznski, Jillian [Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden); Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtenay Cabot

    2011-11-15

    Climate change poses a major challenge to agriculture. Rising temperatures will change crop growing seasons. And changing rainfall patterns will affect yield potentials. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has left the agricultural sector in many developing countries ill-prepared for the changes ahead. Policymakers and researchers alike acknowledge the need for adaptation within agriculture. But what action should be taken? And, more importantly, how much will it cost? Five case studies — of specific agricultural systems in Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Tanzania — provide fresh insights into the options available and likely costs, which are at least US$20,000 for an integrated cropping system in a village, and may well be more than US$100 million for a whole sector such as livestock in a country.

  9. AGRICULTURAL TAX SYSTEM IN POLAND AND DIRECTIONS OF THE CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marzena Malewska

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A research problem taken in the article is a question, whether legal solutions applied in the Polish system of the taxation of agriculture have an appropriate shape and whether this system is optimal? If not, what are possible options of changes and whether the in-come tax is good for agricultural activities. A method of analysis of secondary sources was used in order to solve the research problem. Required data was taken from the base of the Główny Urząd Statystyczny and scientific publications of the publishing universi-ty. In the article were formulated the following hypotheses: 1.\tThe system of the taxation of agriculture is different than other existing Polish law and it is regarded as unfair in relation to other social groups. 2.\tChanging the tax system in agriculture is necessary and would lead to positive chang-es in the structure of agriculture. 3.\tThe reform of the taxation system of agricultural production is in many aspects neces-sary and beneficial, but it should nevertheless take into account the specificities of the agricultural activity. 4.\tThe introduction of the income tax has its bad side and carries the disadvantages for both farmers and municipalities.

  10. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    2015-02-21

    Feb 21, 2015 ... Climate change poses a serious danger to livelihoods and food security as well as ..... climate change since it will enhance their ability to adopt innovations and technologies. [11, 30 .... Sci. and Tech., 2010; 4 (6): 371-381. 5.

  11. AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    victoria

    Climate change poses a serious danger to livelihoods and food security as well as enhancing risks and vulnerabilities through the increased incidence of environmental disaster and intense weather events [1]. The impacts of climate change basically may be restricted in nature but also with economy-wide implications [2].

  12. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... on the factors affecting vulnerability to climate change on the whole island of Madagascar;; to better understand existing and possible adaptation strategies;; to explore various intervention strategies under different scenarios; and; to reinforce national capacity in analysis of climate change vulnerability and adaptation.

  13. Impact of projected climate change on agricultural production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the World to climate change because of widespread poverty and limited adaptive capacity. The future climate change is likely to present an additional challenge to the agricultural sector. Therefore, the effects of climate change on the current agronomic ...

  14. impact of projected climate change on agricultural production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the World to climate change because of widespread poverty and limited adaptive capacity. The future climate change is likely to present an additional challenge to the agricultural sector. Therefore, the effects of climate change on the current agronomic ...

  15. Analysis of road development and associated agricultural land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alphan, Hakan

    2017-12-05

    Development of road network is one of the strongest drivers of habitat fragmentation. It interferes with ecological processes that are based on material and energy flows between landscape patches. Therefore, changes in temporal patterns of roads may be regarded as important landscape-level environmental indicators. The aim of this study is to analyze road development and associated agricultural land use change near the town of Erdemli located in the eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The study area has witnessed an unprecedented development of agriculture since the 2000s. This process has resulted with the expansion of the road network. Associations between agricultural expansion and road development were investigated. High-resolution satellite images of 2004 and 2015 were used to analyze spatial and temporal dimensions of change. Satellite images were classified using a binary approach, in which land areas were labeled as either "agriculture" or "non-agriculture." Road networks were digitized manually. The study area was divided into 23 sublandscapes using a regular grid with 1-km cell spacing. Percentage of landscape (PL) for agriculture and road density (RD) metrics were calculated for the earlier (2004) and later (2015) years. Metric calculations were performed separately for each of the 23 sublandscapes in order to understand spatial diversity of agriculture and road density. Study results showed that both RD and PL exhibited similar increasing trends between 2004 and 2015.

  16. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    10 juin 2007 ... to facilitate a dialogue between decision-makers and researchers at the national, regional and local level;; to produce spatial information on the factors affecting vulnerability to climate change on the whole island of Madagascar;; to better understand existing and possible adaptation strategies;; to explore ...

  17. Assessing the agricultural costs of climate change: Combining results from crop and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Any perturbation to a resource system used by humans elicits both technical and behavioral changes. For agricultural production, economic criteria and their associated models are usually good predictors of human behavior in agricultural production. Estimation of the agricultural costs of climate change requires careful downscaling of global climate models to the level of agricultural regions. Plant growth models for the dominant crops are required to accurately show the full range of trade-offs and adaptation mechanisms needed to minimize the cost of climate change. Faced with the shifts in the fundamental resource base of agriculture, human behavior can either exacerbate or offset the impact of climate change on agriculture. In addition, agriculture can be an important source of increased carbon sequestration. However the effectiveness and timing of this sequestration depends on agricultural practices and farmer behavior. Plant growth models and economic models have been shown to interact in two broad fashions. First there is the direct embedding of a parametric representation plant growth simulations in the economic model production function. A second and more general approach is to have plant growth and crop process models interact with economic models as they are simulated. The development of more general wrapper programs that transfer information between models rapidly and efficiently will encourage this approach. However, this method does introduce complications in terms of matching up disparate scales both in time and space between models. Another characteristic behavioral response of agricultural production is the distinction between the intensive margin which considers the quantity of resource, for example fertilizer, used for a given crop, and the extensive margin of adjustment that measures how farmers will adjust their crop proportions in response to climate change. Ideally economic models will measure the response to both these margins of adjustment

  18. Structural change and agricultural diversification since China’s reforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Structural change is considered the major engine in fostering a country’s growth. In the agricultural sector, diversification is the commonly used development strategy to increase rural sector’s flexibility, and to respond to improving technologies and market conditions. This study examined agricultural development and transformation during China’s socio-economic reforms. In particular, it empirically investigated whether the change of China’s agricultural structure is consistent with structural change theory and observed outcomes from other countries. The degree of agricultural diversification was quantitatively measured at a regional scale using the Herfindahl index. An underdeveloped province in northwest China was studied to provide insights into the interaction among structural change, agricultural diversification, and implemented development policies. Aggregate-level analyses suggest that China’s agricultural transformation pattern is consistent with those of other developing countries. A specific provincial-level analysis shows that environmentally and economically disadvantaged regions are slower to diversify their economy than better endorsed regions.

  19. Technologies for Climate Change Mitigation - Agriculture Sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uprety, D.C.; Dhar, Subash; Hongmin, Dong

    in the areas of crops, livestock, emissions, and economics, and we are grateful for their efforts in producing this cross disciplinary work. This publication is part of a technical guidebook series produced by the UNEP Risø Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development (URC) as part of the Technology......This guidebook describes crop and livestock management technologies and practices that contribute to climate change mitigation while improving crop productivity, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, and lowering water consumption. It is co-authored by internationally recognised experts...... Needs Assessment (TNA) project (http://tech-action.org) that is assisting developing countries in identifying and analysing the priority technology needs for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The TNA process involves different stakeholders in a consultative process, enabling all stakeholders...

  20. Gender and climate change adaptation in agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Øvstegård, Rebekka

    2010-01-01

    Gender analysis is an important component of the Climarice project in order to better understand the ways in which women and men are differently affected by climate change and how they are adapting. During the current year, a preliminary analysis has been carried out on gender issues. This will be followed by a detailed study in 2011 in selected areas in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The expected outputs will provide more detailed analysis on gender differences and a better understanding of ...

  1. Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

  2. Monitoring agricultural landscape changes in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    Danish rural landscapes was collected in 1986, 1991 and 1996 as part of the national small biotope monitoring system. In 2008 and 2014 land cover maps at a similar scale were developed, based on a combination of remote sensed LiDAR data and field scale land use data from administrative registers (the Dan......Cover maps). On this basis a time series of landscape change for the entire period was constructed for selected areas. In addition, a single sample area was mapped using field methods in 2008, making it possible to directly compare the two datasets for the same area and year. Tendencies in the data...

  3. Does sustainability require new skills for change agents in agriculture?

    OpenAIRE

    Cerf, Marianne; Guillot, Marie-Noëlle; Orly, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Sustainability is an ill-defined concept. Many actors make claims about what sustainability should be, and farmers react to such claims in different ways. How do change agents and their managers deal with this diversity of farmers’ attitudes towards change and towards the future of agriculture? How do they themselves cope with change and understand their role as change agents? We chose a comprehensive, action-training approach to answer such questions. This approach enabled the agents to ackn...

  4. Strategies for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Kogi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    adaptation to climate change should of necessity identify prevailing adaptation strategies with a view to ... agricultural adaptation to climate change are more prevalent than others and whether there is a significant ..... insurance facilities, rearing of hybrid livestock, use of fertilizers/animal dung and shelterbelts have.

  5. Reconciling approaches to climate change adaptation for Colombian agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Khoury, C.K.

    2013-01-01

    The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a

  6. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... on the new USDA.gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. The changing ... by 2050. Preparing for Increased Weather Risks Regional Climate Hubs In an effort to mitigate climate-related ...

  7. Uncertainties in Agricultural Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montesino San Martin, Manuel

    Future food security will be challenged by the likely increase in demand, changes in consumption patterns and the effects of climate change. Framing food availability requires adequate agricultural production planning. Decision-making can benefit from improved understanding of the uncertainties...

  8. Argentina - Country Note on Climate Change Aspects in Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    This country note briefly summarizes information relevant to both climate change and agriculture in Argentina, with focus on policy developments (including action plans and programs) and institutional make-up. Argentina is one of the four developing countries in the world to have submitted two national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in...

  9. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlik, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lampe, von M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Croz, d' D.M.; Meijl, van H.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Muller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.A.; Willenbockel, D.

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and

  10. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S. The changing climate presents real threats to ... susceptible to fires could double by 2050. Preparing for Increased Weather Risks Regional Climate Hubs In an ...

  11. Public health in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana I. Andreeva

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Several months in 2013 and 2014 have been a hardly predictable time in Ukraine, and the situation is still far from being stable. This made the editorial team of TCPHEE based in Ukraine postpone publishing consecutive issues. However, while the situation still requires practical steps, many aspects including those related to public health require analysis and debate. Thus we invite opinion pieces and studies addressing all different spheres of how public health should function under changing social circumstances. There might be a wide range of such related topics. The most obvious ones are those linked to changing living conditions. Many studies have been undertaken and published with regard to health threats to refugees, people involved in natural or technical disasters (Noji, 2005. Along with environmental health threats, there might be mental health disturbances (World Health Organization, 1992 resulting from long-term strain, losses et cetera. Another important focus is related to changes in health services provision. Crimea, which is a former Ukrainian territory now occupied by the Russian Federation, was among those in Ukraine highly affected with HIV (Dehne, Khodakevich, Hamers, & Schwartlander, 1999. This was responded by several NGOs actively providing harm reduction services to high-risk groups along with methadone substitution therapy to opiate users and antiretroviral medicines to those HIV-infected (Curtis, 2010. However, there are news reports that Russia is going to stop provision of methadone (kommersant.ru, 2014. As opiate substitution programs have been shown an effective approach towards preventing HIV transmission among people who inject drugs (MacArthur et al., 2012, such change in public health policies might affect not only most at risk populations but their partners and population as a whole as well resulting in a rapid spread of HIV. Yet another related topic is that of how health services can be organized at times of

  12. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef

    2008-01-01

    ; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate......Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more...... susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded...

  13. Product flow and price change in an agricultural distribution network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Daekyung; Yang, Seong-Gyu; Kim, Kibum; Kim, Beom Jun

    2018-01-01

    We use the structure of a real distribution network of agricultural product in Korea and investigate how the change in the supply may affect the price changes in agents across the distribution network. In particular, we focus on the real network structure of cabbage distribution composed of various types of agents, from farms to consumers, and apply a dynamic model to describe how each participant reacts upon the change of input and output flow of products through the adjustment of price. Our main result implies that the effect of fluctuation of production quantity in the supplying participant can be nontrivial and the consumer price responds to such changes. We believe that our results can be useful to predict what will happen if the agricultural production changes much in the future due to the climate changes.

  14. Phenological Metrics Extraction for Agricultural Land-use Types Using RapidEye and MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xingmei; Doktor, Daniel; Conrad, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Crop phenology involves the various agricultural events, such as planting, emergence, flowering, development of fruit and harvest. These phenological stages of a crop contain essential information for practical agricultural management, crop productivity estimation, investigations of crop-weather relationships, and also play an important role in improving agricultural land-use classification. In this study, we used MODIS and RapidEye images to extract phenological metrics in central Germany between 2010 and 2014. The Best Index Slope Extraction algorithm was used to remove undesirable data noise from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series of both satellite data before fast Fourier transformation was applied. Metrics optimization for phenology of major crops in the study area (winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape and sugar beet) and validation were performed with intensive ground observations from the German Weather Service (2010-2014) and our own measurements of BBCH code (Biologische Bundesanstalt für Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Bundessortenamt und CHemische Industrie) (in 2014). We found that the dates with maximum NDVI have a close link to the heading stage of cereals (RMSE = 9.48 days for MODIS and RMSE = 13.55 days for RapidEye), and the dates of local half maximum during senescence period of winter crops was strongly related to ripeness stage (BBCH: 87) (RMSE = 8.87 days for MODIS and RMSE = 9.62 days for RapidEye). The root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of derived green up dates for both winter and summer crops were larger than 2 weeks, which was caused by limited number of good quality images during the winter season. Comparison between RapidEye and homogeneous MODIS pixels indicated that phenological metrics derived from both satellites were similar to the crop calendar in this region. We also investigated the influence of spatial aggregation of RapidEye-scale phenology to MODIS scale as well as the effect of decreasing the

  15. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-03-04

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  16. Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina

    2014-01-01

    Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

  17. Too Hot to Handle: Climate Change and Agricultural Water Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Fort

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The world faces enormous challenges in responding to looming crises in food and water. Responding to this challenge will require flexibility; such flexibility may be impeded by legal institutions. This paper looks at the western United States and discusses the role of irrigated agriculture in that region. Because of climate change, a growing population, declining groundwater, the need to protect ecosystems and other conflicts, the author suggests that all water uses, including long-standing agricultural water rights, need to be examined in light of these changes. Legal systems have tended to serve the status quo, but perhaps the law can help facilitate this re-examination.

  18. Agricultural Land Use Change after NAFTA in Central West Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quetzalcóatl Orozco-Ramírez

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that agricultural land use change and modernization in agricultural production techniques are related to the loss of crop diversity. Two processes contribute to this loss; first is the replacement of landraces by modern varieties, and second is the abandonment of traditional crops in favor of cash crops. We studied the expression of these processes in a region that is both an agro-biodiversity and cultural center and one of the most significant fruit exporters of Mexico. We analyzed agricultural change based on the transformation of cropping areas and the primary crops’ locations in Michoacán state. We examined the crop-harvested area statistics from 1950 to 2015, and identified 23 crops as the most important in terms of harvested area and monetary value. After NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement, harvested area for nine crops changed significantly: seven crops increased, and two decreased. Positive trends were observed for commercial fruits oriented to export markets, and negative trends were observed for traditional crops. These crops, such as beans and maize, are important for food security. Additionally, we analyzed how these land-use and agricultural changes overlap in zones of maize planted-area change. Using a maize-race collection database, we identified three native maize races that could be at risk due to the abandonment of maize in favor of commercial crops.

  19. Merging remote sensing data and national agricultural statistics to model change in irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jesslyn; Pervez, Md Shahriar

    2014-01-01

    Over 22 million hectares (ha) of U.S. croplands are irrigated. Irrigation is an intensified agricultural land use that increases crop yields and the practice affects water and energy cycles at, above, and below the land surface. Until recently, there has been a scarcity of geospatially detailed information about irrigation that is comprehensive, consistent, and timely to support studies tying agricultural land use change to aquifer water use and other factors. This study shows evidence for a recent overall net expansion of 522 thousand ha across the U.S. (2.33%) and 519 thousand ha (8.7%) in irrigated cropped area across the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) from 2002 to 2007. In fact, over 97% of the net national expansion in irrigated agriculture overlays the HPA. We employed a modeling approach implemented at two time intervals (2002 and 2007) for mapping irrigated agriculture across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We utilized U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) county statistics, satellite imagery, and a national land cover map in the model. The model output, called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Irrigated Agriculture Dataset for the U.S. (MIrAD-US), was then used to reveal relatively detailed spatial patterns of irrigation change across the nation and the HPA. Causes for the irrigation increase in the HPA are complex, but factors include crop commodity price increases, the corn ethanol industry, and government policies related to water use. Impacts of more irrigation may include shifts in local and regional climate, further groundwater depletion, and increasing crop yields and farm income.

  20. Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of

  1. Global climate change, United States agriculture and carbon dioxide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follett, R.F. (USDA, Fort Collins, CO (USA))

    An evaluation indicates that, unless there is a decline of about one-fourth in total crop yields, the US land resource base will be adequate and food security can be met. The impacts of climate change on individual crop production regions are hard to predict, however, and may be either negative or positive. The assumption must be made that agriculture faces an uncertain future and, therefore, must rely upon experience, adoption of proven technologies, development of new technologies, and improved husbandry of land, water, and energy resources. Agriculture has a great opportunity to help mitigate climate change by sequestering CO[sub 2] as C in soil and vegetation and by displacing fossil fuels. Practices requiring good agricultural husbandry, which should be implemented anyway, can be quite effective for sequestering C. For cropland, these practices include building soil organic matter levels, improving soil fertility, and growing more food on less land. Carbon pools are maintained, restored, and enlarged on croplands by increased use of conservation tillage, improved use of animal and other wastes, minimized dryland fallowing, and preservation of marginal lands. On forestlands, reforestation, forestation (including tree planting on conservation reserve programme land), and improved forest harvesting practices maintain C-pools. Collectively, these practices can potentially offset not only the CO[sub 2] emissions from US agriculture, but also part of that from US sources outside agriculture.

  2. Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

    2015-04-01

    Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

  3. Adjustment Strategies Revisited: Agricultural Change in the Welsh Marches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Nick

    2009-01-01

    In the late 1980s and early 1990s, much attention was paid by British agricultural geographers to the restructuring of the farm sector under pressures of national, European and global change. The need to adopt a perspective capable of looking beyond the farm gate inspired the introduction of modified political economy approaches into agricultural…

  4. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation (PDF, 11.8MB) Effects of Climatic Variability and Change ... Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector (PDF, 5.8MB) USDA also released a Carbon Management ...

  5. The nexus of population change, agricultural expansion, landscape ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It reveals the pattern of change in landscape and how that corresponds to human factors such as increased population, demand for food and consequent expansion in agricultural activity in the modification of Landscape. The period under consideration (1970-2007) witnessed an increase in population size and household ...

  6. Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture and Water ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate change extremes such as flooding and seasonal drought are already undermining the economies of countries in the Horn of Africa, with agriculture and water resources being the most affected sectors. Countries are drawing up national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) to serve as roadmaps for future ...

  7. Agricultural land-use change and disappearance of farmlands in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The four imageries (Landsat MSS 1980, Landsat TM 1990, Landsat ETM+ 2005 and Nigeria Sat X 2012) used were classified and compared to understand the rate and extent of agricultural land-use change during the different periods. The findings revealed that the study area experienced a significant reduction in

  8. Agricultural change and inequality in Palanpur, 1957-84

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanjouw, P.; Stern, N.; Hoff, K.; Braverman, A.; Stiglitz, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    This chapter analyzes changes in the distribution of income and land in the north Indian village of Palanpur on the basis of four surveys conducted over a 27 year interval. Average per capita income from agricultural activities during 1957-58 and 1962/63 was roughly constant, grew by 74% between

  9. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Its Agricultural Impacts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article presents an assessment of farmers' perceptions of climate change and its agricultural impacts in the Ethiopian portion of the Nile and Baro-Akobo river basins. A total of 500 randomly selected households were interviewed from 15 kebeles in five woredas, three each from dega, woina-dega and kolla ...

  10. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... to main content An official website of the United States government Here’s how you know The .gov means ... coming years: Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation (PDF, 11.8MB) Effects of ...

  11. Climate Change, Its Implications for Agriculture and Rural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study identified the indicators of climate change both anthropogenic and natural variability which affect agriculture and rural development in Oji River Local Government Area of Enugu State, Nigeria. A structured interview schedule was used in sourcing information from sixty farmers. Data obtained were analysed using ...

  12. Vulnerability of southern plains agriculture to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is a key driver for all ecological and economic systems; therefore, climate change introduces additional uncertainty and vulnerability into these systems. Agriculture represents a major land use that is critical to the survival of human societies and it is highly vulnerable to climate. Clima...

  13. Climate Change and Resource Utilization in Nigerian Agriculture ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is already having predominantly adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the poorer parts of the world including Nigeria. Most crop and livestock production systems in Nigeria are low-technology based and are therefore heavily susceptible to environmental factors. This paper investigates the impact of ...

  14. Agricultural Innovations for Climate Change Adaptation and Food ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study sought to examine various agricultural innovations for climate change adaptation and food security in eight countries in Western and Central Africa namely Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Gambia, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Central African Republic. The countries were grouped into three clusters to ...

  15. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture. Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%.

  16. Mediterranean Agricultural Soil Conservation under global Change: The MASCC project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raclot, Damien; Ciampalini, Rossano

    2017-04-01

    The MASCC project (2016-2019, http://mascc-project.org) aims to address mitigation and adaptation strategies to global change by assessing current and future development of Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability to erosion in relation to projected land use, agricultural practices and climate change. It targets to i) assess the similarities/dissimilarities in dominant factors affecting the current Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability by exploring a wide range of Mediterranean contexts; ii) improve the ability to evaluate the impact of extreme events on both the current and projected agricultural soil vulnerability and the sediment delivery at catchment outlet; iii) evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of agricultural production to a combination of potential changes in a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, iv) and provide guidelines on sustainable agricultural conservation strategies adapted to each specific agro-ecosystem and taking into consideration both on- and off-site erosion effects and socio-economics issues. To achieve these objectives, the MASCC project consortium gather researchers from six Mediterranean countries (France, Morocco, Tunisia, Italy, Spain and Portugal) which monitor mid- to long-term environmental catchments and benefit from mutual knowledge created from previous projects and network. The major assets for MASCC are: i) the availability of an unrivalled database on catchment soil erosion and innovative agricultural practices comprising a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, ii) the capacity to better evaluate the impact of extreme events on soil erosion, iii) the expert knowledge of the LANDSOIL model, a catchment-scale integrated approach of the soil-landscape system that enables to simulate both the sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet and the intra-catchment soil evolving properties and iv) the multi-disciplinarity of the involved researchers with an international reputation in the fields of soil science

  17. Climate change and agriculture under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and related documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan; Angelo, Mary Jane; du Plessis, Anél

    Agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Agriculture is also among the sectors that will suffer the largest negative impacts of climate change, for which, consequently, huge adaptation efforts are needed. At the same time this sector faces the challenge of feeding a

  18. The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bindi, Marco; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2011-01-01

    and in the south of European Russia. The consequences on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to vary widely depending on the cropping system being investigated (i.e. cereals vs. forage crops vs. perennial horticulture), the region and the likely climate changes. In northern Europe, increases in yield...... and expansion of climatically suitable areas are expected to dominate, whereas disadvantages from increases in water shortage and extreme weather events (heat, drought, storms) will dominate in southern Europe. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern...

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN ZIMBABWE'S RURAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gukurume Simbarashe

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity in the communal area of Bikita. The article further examines the adaptation and mitigation strategies devised by farmers to deal with the vagaries of climate change and variability. The sustainability of these is also interrogated in this article. This study juxtaposed qualitative and quantitative methodologies albeit with more bias on the former. A total of 40 farmers were sampled for unstructured interviews and focus group discussions. This article argues that the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are felt heavily by the poor communal farmers who are directly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. From the study, some of the widely reported signs of climate variability in Bikita included late and unpredictable rains, high temperatures (heat waves, successive drought, shortening rainfall seasons and seasonal changes in the timing of rainfall. The paper argues that climate change has compounded the vulnerability of peasant farmers in the drought - prone district of Bikita plunging them into food insecurity and abject poverty. It emerged in the study that some of effects of climate variability felt by communal farmers in Bikita included failure of crops, death of livestock and low crop yields, all of which have led to declining agricultural productivity. Findings in this study however established that communal farmers have not been passive victims of the vagaries of climate change and variability. They have rationally responded to it through various adaptation and mitigation strategies both individually and collectively.

  20. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Rapid Land Cover Change provides data and information on global and regional land cover change in raster format for...

  1. Rapid climate change: lessons from the recent geological past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan; Lowe, John; Wolff, Eric; Srokosz, Meric

    2011-12-01

    Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000 years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved.

  2. Climate change and its gendered impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trung, P.T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies have shown that Vietnam is one of the countries that most affected by climate change because of its geographical and natural conditions together with its fast but massive and unplanned urbanization. There are many research and studies that have been conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on different sectors in Vietnam. Agriculture plays an important role in the country’s economy in terms of poverty reduction, food security, employment and export but projected to be heavily affected because of sea level rise, floods or droughts etc. A large proportion of Vietnam’s population, especially women, involves with agricultural works and production. So, this paper using a gender perspective will examine possible impacts that climate change has been causing to women and men differently in order to propose some solutions for the facing problems. Since the paper only utilizes available resources, it can serve as a concept note for further works in the future.

  3. Are rapid changes in brain elasticity possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K. J.

    2017-09-01

    Elastography of the brain is a topic of clinical and preclinical research, motivated by the potential for viscoelastic measures of the brain to provide sensitive indicators of pathological processes, and to assist in early diagnosis. To date, studies of the normal brain and of those with confirmed neurological disorders have reported a wide range of shear stiffness and shear wave speeds, even within similar categories. A range of factors including the shear wave frequency, and the age of the individual are thought to have a possible influence. However, it may be that short term dynamics within the brain may have an influence on the measured stiffness. This hypothesis is addressed quantitatively using the framework of the microchannel flow model, which derives the tissue stiffness, complex modulus, and shear wave speed as a function of the vascular and fluid network in combination with the elastic matrix that comprise the brain. Transformation rules are applied so that any changes in the fluid channels or the elastic matrix can be mapped to changes in observed elastic properties on a macroscopic scale. The results are preliminary but demonstrate that measureable, time varying changes in brain stiffness are possible simply by accounting for vasodynamic or electrochemical changes in the state of any region of the brain. The value of this preliminary exploration is to identify possible mechanisms and order-of-magnitude changes that may be testable in vivo by specialized protocols.

  4. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  5. Rapidly changing flows in the Earth's core

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Mandea, M.

    2008-01-01

    recently been used to investigate small-scale core flow(3,4), but no advantage has yet been taken of the improved temporal resolution, partly because the filtering effect of the electrically conducting mantle was assumed to mask short-period magnetic variations(5). Here we show that changes in the magnetic...

  6. Social psychiatry in a rapidly changing world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas K. J. Craig

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Many societies around the world are experiencing a period of unprecedented change in traditional social roles and customs. Globalisation has contributed to materialism and a me-first individualism that heightens awareness of income inequality that itself is one of the most robust markers of unhappiness in society. Ever increasing urbanisation has driven an erosion of large ‘joint’ family arrangements to be replaced by smaller and relatively isolated nuclear families and single parent living. Mass migration has unmasked deep seated fear and prejudice towards the outsider in society. These global changes are fertile ground for the social conditions that have long been known to be risks for mental illness – poverty, poor quality child care, social isolation and the active discrimination and exclusion of the alien, the physically disabled and mentally ill. While there is little we can do to reverse global change, there is much a social psychiatrist can do to mitigate the effect, ensuring his/her voice is added to other calls for reducing discriminatory practice, promoting evidence-based social interventions such as parenting advice and peer support and ensuring that the success of a treatment is measured not just in terms of symptomatic improvement but in whether it results in an outcome that is valued by the patient.

  7. Climate change and agricultural transformation in the Oaxaca Valley, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dilley, F.B.

    1993-01-01

    The Valley of Oaxaca, a semi-arid region in the central highlands of southern Mexico, provides a case study through which to develop a methodology for climate change impact assessment. The causes and impacts of climate change originate in dialectic processes within a nexus of inter-dependent social, technical, environmental, cultural and academic production relations. Agriculture is the most important economic activity in the Valley, and rain-fed maize the most important crop. Harvest failures from droughts occur one year in four. Annual rainfall varies with large-scale convection of water vapor transported from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico during summer, upper-air disturbances caused by hurricanes and El Ninos. Variations in maize yields and losses have roughly moisture availability during August. Yields and losses can be predicted using precipitation during this time, or directly from atmospheric circulation. Contemporary agriculture in the Valley of Oaxaca has both traditional and modern sectors, of which both may appear within individual communities and households. The traditional sector consists of semi-autonomous rural communities using traditional technology for subsistence farming. The modern sector uses tractors, irrigation pumps, agricultural chemicals and hybrid seeds to produce cash crops and dairy products. The evidence for climate change in the Valley is ambiguous and contradictory. Under wet or dry scenarios, climate change affects the rate and pathway of the absorption of Oaxaca's traditional rural communities into the wage labor market of the larger capitalist system. Increased moisture availability would raise land productivity, promoting cash cropping and development of the modern market-oriented agricultural sector and leading to land consolidation and rural-to-urban migration. Decreased moisture availability would inhibit cash-cropping but also lead to rural-to-urban migration due to decreased land productivity.

  8. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  9. Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Agriculture Resource Directory offers comprehensive, easy-to-understand information about environmental stewardship on farms and ranches; commonsense, flexible approaches that are both environmentally protective and agriculturally sound.

  10. Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Learning to change, changing to learn : managing natural resources for sustainable agriculture in the Philippine uplands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campilan, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    The study explores problem situations in natural resource management in the Philippine uplands. It examines, through a knowledge systems perspective, the changing nature of development intervention that is required as sustainability becomes an important criterion of agricultural

  12. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  13. A conceptual framework for effectively anticipating water-quality changes resulting from changes in agricultural activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capel, Paul D.; Wolock, David M.; Coupe, Richard H.; Roth, Jason L.

    2018-01-10

    Agricultural activities can affect water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems; many water-quality issues originate with the movement of water, agricultural chemicals, and eroded soil from agricultural areas to streams and groundwater. Most agricultural activities are designed to sustain or increase crop production, while some are designed to protect soil and water resources. Numerous soil- and water-protection practices are designed to reduce the volume and velocity of runoff and increase infiltration. This report presents a conceptual framework that combines generalized concepts on the movement of water, the environmental behavior of chemicals and eroded soil, and the designed functions of various agricultural activities, as they relate to hydrology, to create attainable expectations for the protection of—with the goal of improving—water quality through changes in an agricultural activity.The framework presented uses two types of decision trees to guide decision making toward attainable expectations regarding the effectiveness of changing agricultural activities to protect and improve water quality in streams. One decision tree organizes decision making by considering the hydrologic setting and chemical behaviors, largely at the field scale. This decision tree can help determine which agricultural activities could effectively protect and improve water quality in a stream from the movement of chemicals, or sediment, from a field. The second decision tree is a chemical fate accounting tree. This decision tree helps set attainable expectations for the permanent removal of sediment, elements, and organic chemicals—such as herbicides and insecticides—through trapping or conservation tillage practices. Collectively, this conceptual framework consolidates diverse hydrologic settings, chemicals, and agricultural activities into a single, broad context that can be used to set attainable expectations for agricultural activities. This framework also enables

  14. Monitoring of rapid land cover changes in eastern Japan using Terra/MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, I.; Hara, K.; Park, J.; Asanuma, I.; Tomita, M.; Hasegawa, D.; Short, K.; Fujihara, M.,

    2015-04-01

    Vegetation and land cover in Japan are rapidly changing. Abandoned farmland in 2010, for example, was 396,000 ha, or triple that of 1985. Efficient monitoring of changes in land cover is vital to both conservation of biodiversity and sustainable regional development. The Ministry of Environment is currently producing 1/25,000 scale vegetation maps for all of Japan, but the work is not yet completed. Traditional research is time consuming, and has difficulty coping with the rapid nature of change in the modern world. In this situation, classification of various scale remotely sensed data can be of premier use for efficient and timely monitoring of changes in vegetation.. In this research Terra/MODIS data is utilized to classify land cover in all of eastern Japan. Emphasis is placed on the Tohoku area, where large scale and rapid changes in vegetation have occurred in the aftermath of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011. Large sections of coastal forest and agricultural lands, for example, were directly damaged by the earthquake or inundated by subsequent tsunami. Agricultural land was also abandoned due to radioactive contamination from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. The classification results are interpreted within the framework of a Landscape Transformation Sere model developed by Hara et al (2010), which presents a multi-staged pattern for tracking vegetation changes under successively heavy levels of human interference. The results of the research will be useful for balancing conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems with the needs for regional redevelopment.

  15. Changing the child labor laws for agriculture: impact on injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlenga, Barbara; Berg, Richard L; Linneman, James G; Brison, Robert J; Pickett, William

    2007-02-01

    The child labor laws are intended to protect young workers from the most dangerous jobs. However, children who work on their parents' farms are exempt from these laws. We evaluated the potential for preventing the occurrence of farm injuries among children by changing the US Federal Child Labor Laws, Hazardous Occupations Orders for Agriculture. A retrospective case series of 1193 farm injuries among children from the United States and Canada was assembled. The Hazardous Occupations Orders were systematically applied to each case. Injury preventability was estimated. A total of 286 (24%) cases of injury involved immediate family members engaged in farm work. Among these children, 33% of those aged younger than 16 years and 36% of those aged 16 or 17 years were performing work prohibited under the Hazardous Occupations Orders. Removing the family farm exemption from the Hazardous Occupations Orders and raising the age restriction for performing hazardous agricultural work from 16 to 18 years would be efficacious in preventing the most serious injuries experienced by young family farm workers. Potential reductions in injury would meet Healthy People 2010 goals for reducing traumatic injury in the agricultural sector.

  16. Estimation of soil erosion risk within an important agricultural sub-watershed in Bursa, Turkey, in relation to rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozsoy, Gokhan; Aksoy, Ertugrul

    2015-07-01

    This paper integrates the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS model to investigate the spatial distribution of annual soil loss and identify areas of soil erosion risk in the Uluabat sub-watershed, an important agricultural site in Bursa Province, Turkey. The total soil loss from water erosion was 473,274 Mg year(-1). Accordingly, 60.3% of the surveyed area was classified into a very low erosion risk class while 25.7% was found to be in high and severe erosion risk classes. Soil loss had a close relationship with land use and topography. The most severe erosion risk typically occurs on ridges and steep slopes where agriculture, degraded forest, and shrubs are the main land uses and cover types. Another goal of this study was to use GIS to reveal the multi-year urbanization status caused by rapid urbanization that constitutes another soil erosion risk in this area. Urbanization has increased by 57.7% and the most areal change was determined in class I lands at a rate of 80% over 25 years. Urbanization was identified as one of the causes of excessive soil loss in the study area.

  17. The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, John F

    2007-12-11

    Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

  18. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2014-07-01

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

  19. Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka; a Ricardian valuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sungno Niggolseo [Yale Univ., School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT (United States); Mendelsohn, Robert [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Munasinghe, Mohan [Munasinghe Inst. for Development (MIND), Colombo (Sri Lanka); Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2005-10-01

    This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country. The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishes more complex precipitation effects. We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for Sri Lanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from -11 billion rupees (-20 per cent) to +39 billion rupees (+72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario. (Author)

  20. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm

  1. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  2. Managing in the rapidly changing context of higher education: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Higher education is one of the most rapidly changing sectors of our society. Besides the rate of change in the sector there are also, as seen from the continuous media coverage, a number of universities and technikons in some form of financial or leadership crisis. Over the past years one of the main reasons given for these ...

  3. [Agricultural policies and farming systems: A case study of landscape changes in Shizuitou Village in the recent four decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-jun; Zhou, Yang; Yan, Yan-bin; Li, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural policy in China's rural heartland is driving profound changes to traditional farming systems. A case study covering four decades mapped and recorded farming patterns and processes in Shizuitou Village, a rural village in northwest Shanxi. An integrated geospatial methodology from geography and anthropology was employed in the case study to record the changing dynamics of farming systems in Shizuitou Village to discover the long-term impacts of China's agricultural policies on village farming systems. Positive and negative impacts of agricultural policies on village farming systems were mapped, inventoried and evaluated using Participatory Geographic Information Systems (PGIS). The results revealed traditional polycultures are being gradually replaced by industrialized monocultures. The driving forces behind these farming changes come from a series of government agricultural policies aiming at modernization of farming systems in China. The goal of these policies was to spur rapid development of industrial agriculture under the guise of modernization but is leading to the decay of traditional farming systems in the village that maintained local food security with healthy land for hundreds of years. The paper concluded with a recommendation that in future, agricultural policy makers should strike a more reasonable balance between short-term agricultural profits and long-term farming sustainability based on the principles of ecological sustainable development under the context of global changes.

  4. Climate change impacts on North Dakota: agriculture and hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Zhang, X.; Lim, Y.; Teng, W. L.

    2011-12-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed. One of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. Devils Lake is a terminal lake with a surface area of about 500 km2 in a 9,867 km2 closed watershed, located in the northeastern part of the state. The recent changes in climate interrupted the 5-7 year long wet/dry cycle, resulting in a persistently wet state. The change in the water balance has led to a substantial increase in the lake level from 427.0 m in 1940 to 434.6 m in 1993 to 443.2 m in 2011. The resulting flooding has threatened the local communities, costing $450 million in mitigation efforts thus far. If the elevation reaches 444.4 m, the saline, eutrophic lake will naturally spill into the Sheyenne River, eventually flowing into Lake Winnipeg. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for eight different locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing. For projections of climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin, we additionally used the information on the spatial distribution of precipitation over the basin from the NASA TRMM TMPA 3B42-V6 product, which combines

  5. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  6. Climate change mitigation for agriculture: water quality benefits and costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcock, Robert; Elliott, Sandy; Hudson, Neale; Parkyn, Stephanie; Quinn, John

    2008-01-01

    impair wetland function to intercept and remove nitrate from drainage water, or even add to the overall N loading to waterways. DCD is water soluble and degrades rapidly in warm soil conditions. The recommended application rate of 10 kg DCD/ha corresponds to 6 kg N/ha and may be exceeded in warm climates. Of the N2O produced by agricultural systems, approximately 30% is emitted from indirect sources, which are waterways draining agriculture. It is important therefore to focus strategies for managing N inputs to agricultural systems generally to reduce inputs to wetlands and streams where these might be reduced to N2O. Waste management options include utilizing the CH4 resource produced in farm waste treatment ponds as a source of energy, with conversion to CO2 via combustion achieving a 21-fold reduction in GHG emissions. Both of these have co-benefits for waterways as a result of reduced loadings. A conceptual model derived showing the linkages between key land management practices for greenhouse gas mitigation and key waterway values and ecosystem attributes is derived to aid resource managers making decisions affecting waterways and atmospheric GHG emissions. Copyright (c) IWA Publishing 2008.

  7. Agriculturally induced environmental changes in the Burren Karst, Western Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drew, D.

    1996-10-01

    The Burren plateau of County Clare is a classic example of a plateau karst characterised by patchy, thin soils, a lack of defined surface drainage, and in the instance of the Burren, a rich floristic, archaeological and landscape heritage. Since accession to the European Union and, in particular, as a result of Common Agricultural Policy initiatives, attempts have been made to raise farm incomes and to modernise agriculture in areas such as the Burren. Due to the encouragement of land reclamation and silage production has largely replaced hay farming for winter fodder. These changes pose a threat to groundwater quality by enhancing the leaching of artificial fertilizers or of organic pollutants. The Burren is highly vulnerable to water pollution from silage effluent because of its thin or absent soils and its highly karstified aquifers. A full survey of silage clamps was made in the summers of 1991 and 1992. For each site data were collected to derive the following: mass of silage, effluent produced, hazard rating of site to groundwater, likely discharge of effluent to groundwater and groundwater dilution index. About 60% of clamps were considered to be high risk and 23% medium risk. About 92% of all sites probably allow some effluent to infiltrate groundwater.

  8. Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. KETTUNEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the assessment of the economic effects of climate change, changes in returns and costs have to be taken into consideration. Changes in returns are mainly caused by changes in the yield level. Costs are determined by various factors. Harvesting conditions may improve as the temperatures are higher. However, an increasing need for disease and pest control results in higher costs. Various extensive studies have indicated that rising temperatures with the CO2 fertilizing effect increase the crop potential in Finland. From the economic point of view an increase in yield level is highly significant, because the increase in costs remains quite small. A 10% increase in the yield level raises the farm income by about 6%. Because agriculture is supported in many ways either directly or indirectly, the rise in income level may be offset by lowering the support. Consequently, farmers may not benefit from an increase in the yield level, but the benefit will go to the state economy. However, an increase in the yield level resulting from rising temperatures is advantageous to the national economy, regardless of whether the benefit goes to the farmers or to the state.;

  9. Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Ockenden, M. C.; M. J. Hollaway; K. J. Beven; Collins, A. L.; Evans, R; Falloon, P.D.; Forber, K. J.; Hiscock, K.M.; Kahana, R.; Macleod, C. J. A.; Tych, W.; Villamizar, M.L.; Wearing, C; Withers, P. J. A.; Zhou, J.G.

    2017-01-01

    Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-...

  10. effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in the federal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-10-18

    Oct 18, 2012 ... Abstract. The effects of the dynamics of climate on agricultural production are the thrust of this paper. Temperature, rainfall and crops (rice, maize, cassava, groundnut and garden eggs) data were collected for a period of 10 years from the meteorological and agricultural department of the. Agricultural ...

  11. Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity in the Federal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of the dynamics of climate on agricultural production are the thrust of this paper. Temperature, rainfall and crops (rice, maize, cassava, groundnut and garden eggs) data were collected for a period of 10 years from the meteorological and agricultural department of the Agricultural development programme (ADP) ...

  12. Diversity, variation, and change in Ribereno agriculture and agroforestry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, de W.

    1995-01-01

    Ribereños, the native farmers of the lowland Peruvian Amazon region, subsist in an ecologically complex Amazonian varzea environment by practicing a highly diverse agriculture, and following individualistic agricultural strategies. A total of 14 different agricultural methods, identified as

  13. Historical Changes and remediation Measures of Agricultural Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wörman, Anders; Riml, Joakim; Morén, Ida

    2017-04-01

    Changes in landscapes and climate during the last centuries in Sweden can be tracer in dramatic changes in the runoff pattern over large areas. Particularly, extensive drainage works aimed at expanding arable land and reduce risks for local floods. The availability of long-term monitoring runoff time series make it possible to distinguish the effects of landscape changes from climate fluctuations. However, it is expected that these changes also have an effect on retention and attenuation of nutrients in agricultural streams. This work focuses on design approaches for remediation actions in streams that can restore some of the previous self-purifying capacity and, hence, contribute to improved eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea. For analysis of historical time-series we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. We found periodic fluctuations in runoff all over Sweden that can be explained by various climate indices. In addition, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. Finally, we developed a design approach for stream remediation actions that restored the self-purification capacity while also increasing the risk for local floods. It is shown that step-structures, like check dams, are effective measures for inducing hyporheic exchange and thereby increasing potential for adsorption of phosphorus to soil and denitrification of nitrogen in biofilms.

  14. Rapid Communication: v= 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics; Volume 89; Issue 5. Rapid Communication: Δ υ = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3 − states and B ( E 3 ) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI SWATI GARG ASHOK KUMAR JAIN. Research Article Volume 89 Issue 5 November 2017 Article ID 75 ...

  15. Rapid Communication: seniority changing transitions in yrast states ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhoomika Maheshwari

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... Rapid Communication: v = 2 seniority changing transitions in yrast 3− states and B(E3) systematics of Sn isotopes. BHOOMIKA MAHESHWARI1,∗. , SWATI GARG2 and ASHOK KUMAR JAIN2. 1Department of Physics, Banasthali University, Banasthali 304 022, India. 2Department of Physics, IIT Roorkee, ...

  16. Geoengineering and the Risk of Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, A. J.; Matthews, D.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists have proposed that geoengineering could be used to artificially cool the planet as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming. However, several recent studies have shown some of the potential risks of geoengineering, including negative impacts on stratospheric ozone, the hydrologic cycle and the possibility of rapid climate change in the case of abrupt failure, or rapid decommissioning of geoengineering technology. In this study, we have emulated a geoengineering scenario in the MAGICC climate model, by counteracting the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. We have used a hypothetical scenario of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, in which geoengineering is implemented at the year 2020, and is removed abruptly after 40 years. By varying the climate sensitivity of the MAGICC model, and using previously published estimates of climate sensitivity likelihoods, we are able to derive a probabilistic prediction of the rate of temperature change following the removal of geoengineering. In a simulation without geoengineering (considering only the A1B AIM emissions scenario) the maximum annual rate of temperature change (in the highest climate sensitivity simulation) was 0.5° C per decade. In the geoengineering simulations the maximum annual rate of temperature change, occurring in the year after geoengineering was stopped, varied from 0.22° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 0.5° C to nearly 8° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 10° C. The most likely maximum rate of change (corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 2.5° C) was just over 5° C per decade. There is a 99.8 percent probability that the rate of temperature change following the stoppage of geoengineering in this scenario would exceed 3° C per decade. This risk of rapid climate change associated with the use of planetary-scale geoengineering is highly relevant to discussion of climate policies aimed at avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the

  17. Secondary Agricultural Education Teachers as Agents of Change in Oklahoma and the Adoption of Precision Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickeson, Beth

    2013-01-01

    Research indicates that precision agricultural education (PAE) in Oklahoma affects environmental quality, water conservation, and crop yields. The purpose of this mixed methods study was to explore the nature and perceived effectiveness of PAE in Oklahoma secondary agricultural education classes. The study was framed by the diffusion of…

  18. Major rapid weight loss induces changes in cardiac repolarization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel-Larsen, Esben; Iepsen, Eva Pers Winning; Lundgren, Julie

    2016-01-01

    analysis has been suggested as a more sensitive method to identify changes in cardiac repolarization. We examined the effect of a major and rapid weight loss on T-wave morphology. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-six individuals had electrocardiograms (ECG) taken before and after eight weeks of weight loss...... intervention along with plasma measurements of fasting glucose, HbA1c, and potassium. For assessment of cardiac repolarization changes, T-wave Morphology Combination Score (MCS) and ECG intervals: RR, PR, QT, QTcF (Fridericia-corrected QT-interval), and QRS duration were derived. The participants lost......A1c (pMonitoring of MCS during calorie restriction makes it possible to detect repolarization changes with higher discriminative power than the QT-interval during major rapid weight...

  19. Northern agriculture: constraints and responses to global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. MELA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the northern circumpolar zone, the area between the 600°Cd and 1200°Cd isopleths of effective temperature sum above 5°C, the annual receipt of solar energy is limited by the low angle of radiation arriving at the earth's surface. This is the primary cause of the climatic constraints observed in the zone, such as low temperatures, a short growing season, frosts during the growing season, long and cold winters and thick snow cover. In Finland, the length of the growing season varies from 180 days in the south (60°N to 120 days in the north (70°N. Consequently, the growing time for crops from sowing to ripening is also short, which limits their ability to produce high yields. The most advanced forms of farming in the high-latitude zone are encountered towards the south in Northern Europe, central Siberia and the prairies of Canada, i.e. mainly in the phytogeographical hemiboreal zone where the effective temperature sum is higher than 1200°Cd. Conditions for agriculture then deteriorate gradually further north with the cooling of the climate, and this is reflected as an increase in cattle rearing at the expense of grain cultivation. In northern Europe farming is practised as far north as to the Arctic Circle, at about W°N latitude. In North America, fields extend to about 55°N In Asia, there are few fields north of 60°N Finland is the most northern agricultural country in the world, with all its field area, about 2.5 million hectares, located north of latitude 60°N Changes in the climate and atmospheric CO2 predicted for the future are likely to have a strong influence, either beneficial or disadvantageous, on the conditions for growth in northern areas where the annual mean temperature is 5°C or less.;

  20. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  1. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  2. Rapid emergence of pathogens in agro-ecosystems: global threats to agricultural sustainability and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Bruce A; Stukenbrock, Eva H

    2016-12-05

    Agricultural ecosystems are composed of genetically depauperate populations of crop plants grown at a high density and over large spatial scales, with the regional composition of crop species changing little from year to year. These environments are highly conducive for the emergence and dissemination of pathogens. The uniform host populations facilitate the specialization of pathogens to particular crop cultivars and allow the build-up of large population sizes. Population genetic and genomic studies have shed light on the evolutionary mechanisms underlying speciation processes, adaptive evolution and long-distance dispersal of highly damaging pathogens in agro-ecosystems. These studies document the speed with which pathogens evolve to overcome crop resistance genes and pesticides. They also show that crop pathogens can be disseminated very quickly across and among continents through human activities. In this review, we discuss how the peculiar architecture of agro-ecosystems facilitates pathogen emergence, evolution and dispersal. We present four example pathosystems that illustrate both pathogen specialization and pathogen speciation, including different time frames for emergence and different mechanisms underlying the emergence process. Lastly, we argue for a re-design of agro-ecosystems that embraces the concept of dynamic diversity to improve their resilience to pathogens. This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

  3. Rapid climate change and society: assessing responses and thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Simon; Petts, Judith; Hobson, Kersty

    2005-12-01

    Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere.

  4. Effects of climate change on US agriculture; Les effets du changement climatique sur l'agriculture americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillet, L

    2007-08-15

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO{sub 2} levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO{sub 2} is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  5. Changes in the Intra-household Roles in Agriculture among Tiv ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    This study assessed the changes in the household roles in agriculture among the Tiv farmers during the colonial and ... development of their agricultural innovation practices during the colonial period in Nigeria (Forrest, 1985 in Ivande 2014). ..... Jibowo, A.A. (2005). History of agricultural extension in Nigeria. In: Adedoyin,.

  6. Evolution of Organic Agriculture within Theoretical Frameworks of Structural Change and Transformation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Ole Horn

    Summary   This dissertation, "Evolution of Organic Agriculture within Frameworks of Structural Change and Transformation", represents a search for an understanding of the phenomenon of "Organic Agriculture". It is structured in six parts. In the first part, we investigate the agricultural economic...

  7. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE AGRICULTURE IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Olusegun Ajetomobi

    2011-01-01

    This study employed the Ricardian approach to test the relative importance of climate normals (average long-term temperature and precipitation in explaining net revenue from Nigerian rice agriculture under irrigation and dry land conditions.   A survey was done by interviewing 1200 rice farmers from 20 rice producing states in Nigeria. The states covered all the six geopolitical zones in the country. The results showed that increase in temperature will reduce net revenue for dry land rice farms while net revenue rises with increase in temperature for irrigated rice farms. Precipitation had similar effects on rice net revenue. Increase in precipitation will cause reduction in revenue for dry land rice farms whereas it will cause increase in revenue for irrigated farms. The results clearly demonstrate irrigation as a significant techniques used by the farmers to adapt to the climate change. Other adaptation options include Keeping of livestock, engaging in off farm works and the use of different market channels.  Â

  8. The Chinese experience of rapid modernization: sociocultural changes, psychological consequences?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahong eSun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena.

  9. The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jiahong; Ryder, Andrew G.

    2016-01-01

    Mainland China has undergone profound changes dating back to the nineteenth century, including a contemporary period of rapid modernization that began in the 1980s. The result has been dramatic social, cultural, and economic shifts impacting the daily lives of Chinese people. In this paper, we explore the psychological implications of sociocultural transformation in China, emphasizing two central themes. First, rising individualism: findings from social and developmental psychology suggest that China’s rapid development has been accompanied by ever-increasing adherence to individualistic values. Second, rising rates of depression: findings from psychiatric epidemiology point to increasing prevalence of depression over this same time period, particularly in rural settings. We argue that links between sociocultural and psychological shifts in China can be usefully studied through a cultural psychology lens, emphasizing the mutual constitution of culture, mind, and brain. In particular, we note that the link between social change, individualism, and rising mental illness deserves careful attention. Our review suggests that shifting values and socialization practices shape emotion norms of concealment and display, with implications for depressive symptom presentation. The challenge comes with interpretation. Increasing prevalence rates of depression may indeed be a general response to the rapidity of sociocultural change, or a specific consequence of rising individualism—but may also result from increasingly ‘Western’ patterns of symptom presentation, or improvements in diagnostic practice. We conclude by considering the challenges posed to standard universal models of psychological phenomena. PMID:27092093

  10. Climate change impacts on agricultural vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Waha, Katharina

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is one of the most important human activities providing food and more agricultural goods for seven billion people around the world and is of special importance in sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of people depends on the agricultural sector for their livelihoods and will suffer from negative climate change impacts on agriculture until the middle and end of the 21st century, even more if weak governments, economic crises or violent conflicts endanger the countries’ food security. T...

  11. Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

  12. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... securely. Menu U.S. Department of Agriculture Main navigation Home Topics Topics Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data ... navigation Glossary Ask the Expert Contact Us Breadcrumb Home Topics Climate Solutions Secondary Navigation Animals Biotechnology Climate ...

  13. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... climate presents real threats to U.S. agricultural production, forest resources, and rural economies. These threats have significant implications not just for farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners, but for all Americans. Land managers across ...

  14. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... to U.S. agricultural production, forest resources, and rural economies. These threats have significant implications not just for ... Methane Emissions, Increase Energy Independence and Grow the Economy (August 1, 2014) Return to top Main navigation - ...

  15. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Department of Agriculture Main navigation Home Topics Topics Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food and Nutrition Forestry Health and Safety Organic Plants Recreation Research and Science Rural Trade Our Agency Our Agency About USDA ...

  16. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... of Agriculture Main navigation Home Topics Topics Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food and ... Breadcrumb Home Topics Climate Solutions Secondary Navigation Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food and ...

  17. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Department of Agriculture Main navigation Home Topics Topics Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food ... Us Breadcrumb Home Topics Climate Solutions Secondary Navigation Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food ...

  18. The contribution of human agricultural activities to increasing evapotranspiration is significantly greater than climate change effect over Heihe agricultural region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Minzhong; Niu, Jun; Kang, Shaozhong; Li, Xiaolin; Lu, Hongna

    2017-08-18

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles. Understanding changes in ET and the relative contribution rates of human activity and of climate change at the basin scale is important for sound water resources management. In this study, changes in ET in the Heihe agricultural region in northwest China during 1984-2014 were examined using remotely-sensed ET data with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Correlation analysis identified the dominant factors that influence change in ET per unit area and those that influence change in total ET. Factor analysis identified the relative contribution rates of the dominant factors in each case. The results show that human activity, which includes factors for agronomy and irrigation, and climate change, including factors for precipitation and relative humidity, both contribute to increases in ET per unit area at rates of 60.93% and 28.01%, respectively. Human activity, including the same factors, and climate change, including factors for relative humidity and wind speed, contribute to increases in total ET at rates of 53.86% and 35.68%, respectively. Overall, in the Heihe agricultural region, the contribution of human agricultural activities to increased ET was significantly greater than that of climate change.

  19. Climate-smart agriculture: possible roles of agricultural universities in a strengthened Norwegian climate change engagement in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Synnevaag, Gry; Lambrou, Jayne Patricia

    2012-02-15

    The recent rise in the number of food insecure people in the world, coupled with incidences of crop failure due to adverse weather, have made world leaders increasingly aware that future climate change may severely limit our ability to feed the growing population towards 2050. So far, in addition to industrial emission control, Norwegian efforts to restrict climate change have focused on mitigation through forest protection (REDD+) and clean energy (Energy+). A third area of attention is climate-smart agriculture. Producing food in a more 'climate smart' way is seen as having three advantages: 1) Providing food for an increasing population, 2) maintaining food production under a changing climate, and 3) reducing greenhouse gas emission from agriculture while absorbing carbon in vegetation and soil. This report explores how Norway can support Africa's efforts to make agriculture more climate-smart through support to African universities.Among the three benefits of climate-smart agriculture, African farmers will be most inclined to focus on the two first, the production increase and the adaptation. Mitigation may require external support. African leaders are in the forefront of developing policies and institutional arrangements for climate-smart agriculture. Among other initiatives, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme under the African Union is in the process of preparing member states for substantial investments in agriculture. Capacity building and the generation of new knowledge are essential for the achievement of climate-smart agriculture. Given the long history of Norwegian support to agricultural research and higher agricultural education in several African countries, Norway can, without doubt, make significant contributions to African food security, now and in the future.Norwegian support to climate-smart agriculture can be based on its experience with REDD+ and Energy+ initiatives. The possible roles include: 1) Human

  20. The implications of climate change for positive contributions of invertebrates to world agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Cock, M.J.W.; Jacobus C Biesmeijer; Cannon, R.J.C.; Gerard, Philippa J.; Gillespie, Dave; Jiménez, Juan J.; Lavelle, Patrick; Suresh K. Raina

    2013-01-01

    [EN] Terrestrial invertebrate species play a dominant role in the trophic dynamics of agricultural ecosystems. Subtle changes in the composition of communities and species interactions at different trophic levels, and role of ecosystem engineers can dramatically modify the effects of invertebrates on plant productivity in agricultural systems. The effect of climate change on relevant invertebrates in agricultural systems, and their potential to adapt or move is discussed. All terrestrial syst...

  1. RAPID CHANGES IN SOCIETY, TECHNOLOGY ,ECONOMY AND PUBLIC SERVICE INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tirthendu Bagchi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Current paper has the purpose to analyze the statement by Drucker (1985 that rapid changes in today’s society, technology, and economy in general are simultaneously a great threat to public-service institutions and even greater opportunity. The statement by Drucker will be analyzed  particularly with context of post offices that what are they going through these days or have gone through. Finally, some recommendations will be made for USPS based on the findings of the analysis..

  2. Climate change and agricultural development: adapting Polish agriculture to reduce future nutrient loads in a coastal watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Giełczewski, Marek; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2014-09-01

    Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO3 and P-PO4 loads is an increase by 20-60 and 24-31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO4 loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO3 loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.

  3. Analysis of future agricultural change : a farm economics approach applied to Dutch arable farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wossink, A.

    1993-01-01

    This study of agricultural change deals simultaneously with: (a) farm planning, ie. the constant adaptation to changing circumstances at the level of the individual farm firm and (b) conditional forecasting, ie. the analysis of alternative agricultural and environmental policy views and

  4. Modelling of Efficiency Change as a Source of Economic Growth in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezat-Jarzębowska Agnieszka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, the subject of economic growth in agriculture was raised. One of the determinants of this process, namely an efficiency change was under the assessment. The aim of the paper was to evaluate the changes of efficiency in the Polish agriculture. In the study, a stochastic parametric production function was used.

  5. Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

    2016-01-01

    There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

  6. Agriculture, livelihoods and climate change in the West African Sahel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sissoko, K.; Keulen, van H.; Verhagen, A.; Tekken, V.; Battaglini, A.

    2011-01-01

    The West African Sahel is a harsh environment stressed by a fast-growing population and increasing pressure on the scarce natural resources. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood of the majority of the people living in the area. Increases in temperature and/or modifications in rainfall

  7. Rural Agricultural Change and Fertility Transition in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhandari, Prem; Ghimire, Dirgha

    2013-01-01

    Using longitudinal panel data from the Western Chitwan Valley of Nepal, this study examines the impact of the use of modern farm technologies on fertility transition--specifically, the number of births in a farm household. Previous explanations for the slow pace of fertility transition in rural agricultural settings often argued that the demand…

  8. Communicating Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector: Insights from Surveys and Interviews with Agricultural Advisors in the Midwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prokopy, L. S.; Carlton, S.; Dunn, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding U.S. agricultural stakeholder views about the existence of climate change and what influences these views is central to developing communication in support of adaptation and mitigation. It has been postulated in the literature that extreme weather events can shape people's climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes. In this presentation, we use data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys and interviews to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors' climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Qualitative interviews revealed that while advisors readily accept the occurrence of extreme weather as a risk, the irregularity and unpredictability of extreme events for specific localities limits day-to-day consideration in respect to prescribed management advice. Instead, advisors' attention is directed towards planning for short-term changes encompassing weather, pests, and the market, as well as planning for long-term trends related to water availability. These findings provide important insights for communicating climate change in this critical sector while illustrating the importance of social science research in planning and executing communication campaigns.

  9. Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boxall, Alistair; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter; Haygarth, Philip; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth; Williams, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens/ chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. We assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems in the UK and discuss the effects on health impacts, using expert input and literature on climate change; health effects from exposure to pathogens/chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals/pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the evidence base for health effects of chemicals/pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical/pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of various contaminants. We merged data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens/chemicals in agricultural systems, and defined recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage adverse increases in risks.

  10. Climate change and Australian agriculture: a review of the threats facing rural communities and the health policy landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Elizabeth G; Bell, Erica; King, Debra; Woodruff, Rosalie

    2011-03-01

    Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

  11. Modeling technical change in climate analysis: evidence from agricultural crop damages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

    2017-05-01

    This study accounts for the Hicks neutral technical change in a calibrated model of climate analysis, to identify the optimum level of technical change for addressing climate changes. It demonstrates the reduction to crop damages, the costs to technical change, and the net gains for the adoption of technical change for a climate-sensitive Pakistan economy. The calibrated model assesses the net gains of technical change for the overall economy and at the agriculture-specific level. The study finds that the gains of technical change are overwhelmingly higher than the costs across the agriculture subsectors. The gains and costs following technical change differ substantially for different crops. More importantly, the study finds a cost-effective optimal level of technical change that potentially reduces crop damages to a minimum possible level. The study therefore contends that the climate policy for Pakistan should consider the role of technical change in addressing climate impacts on the agriculture sector.

  12. Rapid treatment-induced brain changes in pediatric CRPS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2016-03-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex- and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray, two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation.

  13. Rapid Treatment-Induced Brain Changes in Pediatric CRPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erpelding, Nathalie; Simons, Laura; Lebel, Alyssa; Serrano, Paul; Pielech, Melissa; Prabhu, Sanjay; Becerra, Lino; Borsook, David

    2014-01-01

    To date, brain structure and function changes in children with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) as a result of disease and treatment remain unknown. Here, we investigated (a) gray matter (GM) differences between patients with CRPS and healthy controls and (b) GM and functional connectivity (FC) changes in patients following intensive interdisciplinary psychophysical pain treatment. Twenty-three patients (13 females, 9 males; average age ± SD = 13.3 ± 2.5 years) and 21 healthy sex-and age-matched controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Compared to controls, patients had reduced GM in the primary motor cortex, premotor cortex, supplementary motor area, midcingulate cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, basal ganglia, thalamus, and hippocampus. Following treatment, patients had increased GM in the dlPFC, thalamus, basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus, and enhanced FC between the dlPFC and the periaqueductal gray (PAG), two regions involved in descending pain modulation. Accordingly, our results provide novel evidence for GM abnormalities in sensory, motor, emotional, cognitive, and pain modulatory regions in children with CRPS. Furthermore, this is the first study to demonstrate rapid treatment-induced GM and FC changes in areas implicated in sensation, emotion, cognition, and pain modulation. PMID:25515312

  14. Mobile work: Ergonomics in a rapidly changing work environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honan, Meg

    2015-01-01

    Places of work have been completely transformed by innovations in mobile work tools and ever-present access to internet data. This article characterizes use patterns and provides preliminary considerations for productive and comfortable use of common mobile devices. Two surveys described trends in mobile work. In the first, ergonomics professionals who oversee programs reported common mobile devices, their users and what data is accessed. The second, an end user survey, explored common activities performed on mobile devices, duration of use and locations where mobile work is common. The survey results provide a baseline data point for the status of mobile work in early 2014. Research indicates that additional risks have been introduced to the neck, thumbs and hands when using mobile devices. Possible trends regarding device use and work locations emerge. Intervention studies provide some direction for the practitioner. Practical strategies are outlined to reduce exposure intensity and duration. Contemporary mobile work presents tremendous change and opportunity for ergonomists and researchers to keep pace with fitting the changing models of work to the person. Continued research is needed on current mobile device use patterns to better understand ergonomic risk exposure in this rapidly changing realm.

  15. Effects of rapid changes in temperature on two estuarine crustaceans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, D.T.; Capizzi, T.P.; Margrey, S.L.; Wakefield, W.W.

    1981-01-01

    Weight specific oxygen consumption (Q/sub O/sub 2// patterns of the amphipod, Gammarus sp. (acclimated to 5/sup 0/, 15/sup 0/ and 25/sup 0/ C) and of juvenile blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus (15/sup 0/ and 25/sup 0/ C) were used to evaluate the potential effect of exposure to rapid temperature changes simulating once-through power plant pumped entrainment. Amphipods at all acclimation temperatures and blue crabs at 15/sup 0/ C responded to the temperature changes by increasing Q/sub O/sub 2// above pre-exposure levels after the thermal increase and then returning to pre-exposure levels. The response was judged to be a normal physiological compensation response, not a thermal stress response, as suggested by some investigators. Significant differences were found among seasonal Q/sub O/sub 2// patterns in both species; Q/sub O/sub 2// increased with increasing acclimation temperature. However, no seasonal stress effects were found as a result of exposure to the temperature changes. This implies that the effects of ..delta..T's up to 10(/sup 0/C) from power plants of this design should have no significant impact on these organisms.

  16. Rapid genomic DNA changes in allotetraploid fish hybrids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J; Ye, L H; Liu, Q Z; Peng, L Y; Liu, W; Yi, X G; Wang, Y D; Xiao, J; Xu, K; Hu, F Z; Ren, L; Tao, M; Zhang, C; Liu, Y; Hong, Y H; Liu, S J

    2015-06-01

    Rapid genomic change has been demonstrated in several allopolyploid plant systems; however, few studies focused on animals. We addressed this issue using an allotetraploid lineage (4nAT) of freshwater fish originally derived from the interspecific hybridization of red crucian carp (Carassius auratus red var., ♀, 2n=100) × common carp (Cyprinus carpio L., ♂, 2n=100). We constructed a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library from allotetraploid hybrids in the 20th generation (F20) and sequenced 14 BAC clones representing a total of 592.126 kb, identified 11 functional genes and estimated the guanine-cytosine content (37.10%) and the proportion of repetitive elements (17.46%). The analysis of intron evolution using nine orthologous genes across a number of selected fish species detected a gain of 39 introns and a loss of 30 introns in the 4nAT lineage. A comparative study based on seven functional genes among 4nAT, diploid F1 hybrids (2nF1) (first generation of hybrids) and their original parents revealed that both hybrid types (2nF1 and 4nAT) not only inherited genomic DNA from their parents, but also demonstrated rapid genomic DNA changes (homoeologous recombination, parental DNA fragments loss and formation of novel genes). However, 4nAT presented more genomic variations compared with their parents than 2nF1. Interestingly, novel gene fragments were found for the iqca1 gene in both hybrid types. This study provided a preliminary genomic characterization of allotetraploid F20 hybrids and revealed evolutionary and functional genomic significance of allopolyploid animals.

  17. Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Zhai, Fan; Zhuang, Juzhong

    2009-01-01

    Capitalizing on the most recent worldwide estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, this paper assesses the economic effects of climate change for Southeast Asian countries through 2080. The results suggest that the aggregate impacts of agricultural damages caused by climate change on the global economy are moderate. However, the uneven distribution of productivity losses across global regions would bring significant structural adjustments in worldwide agricultura...

  18. Climate Change Effects On Agricultural Pests: The Response of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is predicted to bring about major changes in pest and disease incidence, resulting from the effects of global warming and changes in rainfall patterns. While increasing temperatures are expected to influence growth and development, and duration of pest life cycles, changes in precipitation, relative humidity ...

  19. US Agriculture under Climate Change: An Examination of Climate Change Effects on Ease of Achieving RFS2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuquan W. Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges and opportunities facing today's agriculture within the climate change context are at least twofold: in addition to adapting to a potentially more variable climate, agriculture may also take on the addition role of mitigating GHG emissions—such as providing renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels to some extent. For the US, a large-scale GHG mitigation effort through biofuels production pursuant to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2 is already unfolding. A question thus naturally arises for the RFS2-relevant US agricultural sector: will climate change make it harder to meet the volume goals set in the RFS2 mandates, considering that both climate change and RFS2 may have significant impacts on US agriculture? The agricultural component of FASOMGHG that models the land use allocation within the conterminous US agricultural sector is employed to investigate the effects of climate change (with autonomous adaptation at farm level, coupled with RFS2, on US agriculture. The analysis shows that climate change eases the burden of meeting the RFS2 mandates increasing consumer welfare while decreasing producer welfare. The results also show that climate change encourages a more diversified use of biofuel feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol production, in particular crop residues.

  20. Changing agricultural practices: Potential consequences to aquatic organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasier, Peter J.; Urich, Matthew L.; Hassan, Sayed M.; Jacobs, Whitney N.; Bringolf, Robert B.; Owens, Kathleen M.

    2016-01-01

    Agricultural practices pose threats to biotic diversity in freshwater systems with increasing use of glyphosate-based herbicides for weed control and animal waste for soil amendment becoming common in many regions. Over the past two decades, these particular agricultural trends have corresponded with marked declines in populations of fish and mussel species in the Upper Conasauga River watershed in Georgia/Tennessee, USA. To investigate the potential role of agriculture in the population declines, surface waters and sediments throughout the basin were tested for toxicity and analyzed for glyphosate, metals, nutrients, and steroid hormones. Assessments of chronic toxicity with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca indicated that few water or sediment samples were harmful and metal concentrations were generally below impairment levels. Glyphosate was not observed in surface waters, although its primary degradation product, aminomethyl phosphonic acid (AMPA), was detected in 77% of the samples (mean = 509 μg/L, n = 99) and one or both compounds were measured in most sediment samples. Waterborne AMPA concentrations supported an inference that surfactants associated with glyphosate may be present at levels sufficient to affect early life stages of mussels. Nutrient enrichment of surface waters was widespread with nitrate (mean = 0.7 mg NO3-N/L, n = 179) and phosphorus (mean = 275 μg/L, n = 179) exceeding levels associated with eutrophication. Hormone concentrations in sediments were often above those shown to cause endocrine disruption in fish and appear to reflect the widespread application of poultry litter and manure. Observed species declines may be at least partially due to hormones, although excess nutrients and herbicide surfactants may also be implicated.

  1. Changing agricultural practices: potential consequences to aquatic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasier, Peter J; Urich, Matthew L; Hassan, Sayed M; Jacobs, Whitney N; Bringolf, Robert B; Owens, Kathleen M

    2016-12-01

    Agricultural practices pose threats to biotic diversity in freshwater systems with increasing use of glyphosate-based herbicides for weed control and animal waste for soil amendment becoming common in many regions. Over the past two decades, these particular agricultural trends have corresponded with marked declines in populations of fish and mussel species in the Upper Conasauga River watershed in Georgia/Tennessee, USA. To investigate the potential role of agriculture in the population declines, surface waters and sediments throughout the basin were tested for toxicity and analyzed for glyphosate, metals, nutrients, and steroid hormones. Assessments of chronic toxicity with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca indicated that few water or sediment samples were harmful and metal concentrations were generally below impairment levels. Glyphosate was not observed in surface waters, although its primary degradation product, aminomethyl phosphonic acid (AMPA), was detected in 77% of the samples (mean = 509 μg/L, n = 99) and one or both compounds were measured in most sediment samples. Waterborne AMPA concentrations supported an inference that surfactants associated with glyphosate may be present at levels sufficient to affect early life stages of mussels. Nutrient enrichment of surface waters was widespread with nitrate (mean = 0.7 mg NO 3 -N/L, n = 179) and phosphorus (mean = 275 μg/L, n = 179) exceeding levels associated with eutrophication. Hormone concentrations in sediments were often above those shown to cause endocrine disruption in fish and appear to reflect the widespread application of poultry litter and manure. Observed species declines may be at least partially due to hormones, although excess nutrients and herbicide surfactants may also be implicated.

  2. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    plans, etc. In this article an integrated model system is extended to include emissions of the greenhouse gasses, CH4 and N2O and the acidifying substance, NH3, from the Danish agricultural production. The model system comprises a macroeconomic model of the Danish economy, a Danish agricultural sector...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector....

  3. North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiang, Zhang; Lanying, Han; Jingjing, Lin; Qingyan, Cheng

    2018-01-01

    One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes.

  4. Can conservation trump impacts of climate change and extremes on soil erosion in agricultural landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preservation of top soil is critical for the long term sustainability of agricultural productivity, food security, and biodiversity. However, today’s growing population and increasing demand for food and fiber is stressing the agricultural soil and water resources. Climate change imposes additional ...

  5. Northwest U.S. agriculture in a changing climate: collaboratively defined research and extension priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgine G. Yorgey; Sonia A. Hall; Elizabeth R. Allen; Elizabeth M. Whitefield; Nichole M. Embertson; Vincent P. Jones; Brooke R. Saari; Kirti Rajagopalan; Gabrielle E. Roesch-McNally; Beatrice Van Horne; John T. Abatzoglou; Harold P. Collins; Laurie L. Houston; Timothy W. Ewing; Chad E. Kruger

    2017-01-01

    In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on “win-win” management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect...

  6. Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wishart, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

  7. Climate change and development responses on agriculture in Quang Nam Province Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroll, Henning; Andersen, Jan; Lund, Søren

    2011-01-01

    , forestry and aquaculture and consequently different kinds of adaptations have been introduced. We wanted to study the development in agriculture in order to scrutinize if climate events had major impacts on productivity of the three sectors. An overview of agricultural changes was provided through...... statistics and interviews and important climate impacts and adaptations were identified and assessed. An energy flow method was used to describe the agricultural situation. During the last decade the study showed that farmers in the agricultural field had increased the productivity and they performed strong...

  8. Pheromones-based sexual selection in a rapidly changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henneken, Jessica; Jones, Therésa M

    2017-12-01

    Insects utilise chemical cues for a range of different purposes and the complexity and degree of specificity of these signals is arguably unparalleled in the animal kingdom. Chemical signals are particularly important for insect reproduction and the selective pressures driving their evolution and maintenance have been the subject of previous reviews. However, the world in which chemical cues evolved and are maintained is changing at an unprecedented rate. How (or indeed whether) chemical signals used in sexual selection will respond is largely unknown. Here, we explore how recent increases in urbanisation and associated anthropogenic impacts may affect how chemical signals are produced and perceived. We focus on four anthropomorphic influences which have the potential to interact with pheromone-mediated sexual selection processes; climatic temperature shifts, exposure to chemical pollutants, the presence of artificial light at night and nutrient availability. Our aim is to provide a broad overview of key areas where the rapidly changing environment of the future might specifically affect pheromones utilised in sexual selection. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boxall, Alistair B A; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D; Haygarth, Philip M; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M H; Williams, Richard J

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.

  10. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Trade Have feedback on the new USDA.gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting ... hubs for risk adaptation and mitigation to climate change. These Hubs will deliver science-based knowledge and ...

  11. Rapid Middle Eocene temperature change in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Methner, Katharina; Mulch, Andreas; Fiebig, Jens; Wacker, Ulrike; Gerdes, Axel; Graham, Stephan A.; Chamberlain, C. Page

    2016-09-01

    Eocene hyperthermals are among the most enigmatic phenomena of Cenozoic climate dynamics. These hyperthermals represent temperature extremes superimposed on an already warm Eocene climate and dramatically affected the marine and terrestrial biosphere, yet our knowledge of temperature and rainfall in continental interiors is still rather limited. We present stable isotope (δ18O) and clumped isotope temperature (Δ47) records from a middle Eocene (41 to 40 Ma) high-elevation mammal fossil locality in the North American continental interior (Montana, USA). Δ47 paleotemperatures of soil carbonates delineate a rapid +9/-11 °C temperature excursion in the paleosol record. Δ47 temperatures progressively increase from 23 °C ± 3 °C to peak temperatures of 32 °C ± 3 °C and subsequently drop by 11 °C. This hyperthermal event in the middle Eocene is accompanied by low δ18O values and reduced pedogenic carbonate concentrations in paleosols. Based on laser ablation U/Pb geochronology of paleosol carbonates in combination with magnetostratigraphy, biostratigraphy, stable isotope, and Δ47 evidence, we suggest that this pronounced warming event reflects the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) in western North America. The terrestrial expression of northern hemisphere MECO in western North America appears to be characterized by warmer and wetter (sub-humid) conditions, compared to the post-MECO phase. Large and rapid shifts in δ18O values of precipitation and pedogenic CaCO3 contents parallel temperature changes, indicating the profound impact of the MECO on atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns in the western North American continental interior during this transient warming event.

  12. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Downing, Tom; Venton, Courtenay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria; Butterfield, Ruth; Kaur, Nanki; Birch, Tom; Loga, Denise

    2011-11-15

    Changing climate will have adverse effects on food production, food distribution, infrastructure, land availability for agriculture, and livelihood assets and opportunities in rural and urban areas. Adapting food systems to both enhance food security for the poor and to prevent the future negative impacts of climate change will require attention to more than just agricultural production. Food security can only be ensured and enhanced through a range of interventions across different agricultural systems and along the associated value chains, from production to distribution and allocation. The current efforts to get agriculture into the global climate policy framework after the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol emphasises mitigation. Adaptation is an equally important objective in a world that cannot avoid climate change any more because of already accumulated greenhouse gases. In developing countries, adaptation is the primary concern due to their vulnerability to climate change and high dependence on weather-dependent agricultural systems. A complete response to climate change that integrates agriculture should therefore pursue both agricultural mitigation and adaptation. In order to plan for adaptation effectively, policy makers need reliable information from developing countries on the nature of adaptation, its costs and how these are related to ongoing efforts to develop the agriculture sector and food systems of developing countries. This study set out to inform climate policy development by analysing agricultural adaptation in developing countries using a combination of desk studies and country case studies to provide a framework, areas to focus on when planning agricultural adaptation and the likely costs. It followed key steps for bringing together global and local perspectives for the benefit of both global stakeholders and developing countries.

  13. Vulnerability and adaptation of rain fed agriculture to climate change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJIRO

    climate change. In this context, Hoggan and Littlemore. (2009) warn that despite existing scientific evidence on global warming, some media have been misused to spread propaganda generated by self-interest groups for the purpose of creating confusion about climate change. Evidence of climate change and variability ...

  14. Short Note Potential impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate includes patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. Climate change affects more than just a change in weather; it refers to seasonal changes over long periods. These climate patterns play fundamental roles in shaping natural ecosystems, regional economies and cultures that depend on ...

  15. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

  16. Evaluation of immediate soft tissue changes after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki Beom Kim

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To evaluate immediate soft tissue changes following rapid maxillary expansion (RME in growing patients, using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT. METHODS: Twenty-three consecutive patients (10 male, 13 female treated by RME were selected. Patients were scanned using CBCT prior to placement of the rapid maxillary expander (T0, then immediately following full activation of the appliance (T1. Defined landmarks were then located on the pre- and post-treatment orientated images. Change in landmark position from pre- to post-treatment was then measured. In addition to landmarks, 10 direct measures were made to determine distance change without regard to direction to measure soft tissue change of the lips. RESULTS: Significant transverse expansion was measured on most soft tissue landmark locations. All the measures made showed significant change in the lip position with a lengthening of the vertical dimension of the upper lip, and a generalized decrease of anterior-posterior thickness of both the upper and lower lips. CONCLUSIONS: Significant changes in the soft tissue do occur with RME treatment. There is a transverse widening of the midface, and a thinning of the lips.OBJETIVO: avaliar as mudanças imediatas no tecido mole após a expansão rápida da maxila (ERM em pacientes em fase de crescimento, usando tomografia computadorizada de feixe cônico (TCFC. MÉTODOS: vinte e três pacientes (10 do sexo masculino e 13 do feminino tratados com ERM foram selecionados. Os pacientes foram escaneados por TCFC antes da implantação do expansor maxilar (T0 e imediatamente após a completa ativação do aparelho (T1. Pontos cefalométricos definidos foram localizados nas imagens pré- e pós-tratamento. As mudanças de posição desses pontos do pré- para o pós-tratamento foram, então, analisadas. Adicionalmente aos pontos, 10 medições diretas foram realizadas para determinar a mudança nas distâncias - independentemente da direção - nos

  17. Human relations with soil are changing rapidly: SSSA's new Work Group on Soil Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humanity has rapidly become Earth’s chief agent of soil change, and geologists have named the epoch in which we live the Anthropocene, due to the global scale of human impact on the environment, including soil. In response to the increasing influence of humans on soil processes, the disciplines of ...

  18. CAPACITY BUILDING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: MODULES FOR AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION CURRICULUM DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.O. Ogunbameru

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Basically, climate change refers to any change in climate overtime, generally caused by natural variability and/or human activities. It has great devastating impact, particularly on agriculture and by extrapolation on farmers and the national economy. The frontline agricultural extension workers are expected to be among the principal stakeholders to teach farmers how to cope with climate change. Consequently, there is a need to develop appropriate teaching package for the training of the frontline agricultural extension workers, based on the myriad of adaptation strategies and practices available in the literature. This paper synthesizes the rationale for capacity building in climate change and the adaptation or coping strategies. The modules (train-the-trainer for teaching agricultural extension workers and farmers are documented in the paper.

  19. Changes in the Non-Agricultural Employment Structure of Mexico, 1950-1970

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo, Luis Leobardo

    1975-01-01

    Based on a comparison of the 1950, 1960, and 1970 Mexican population censuses, the article presents the main findings of a detailed study on the changing employment structure of Mexico's non-agricultural labor. (NQ)

  20. Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

  1. An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Macedonian Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan Hristov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a mixed input–output model, this study examines potential changes in sector output and water requirements in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the effects on the economy were quantified. The results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario due to moderate changes in precipitation and temperature and longer cropping period, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. Contrary, the medium and high climate change scenarios would negatively affect agriculture due to increase in temperature and decline in precipitation, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. As a result, water consumption by agriculture sector will increase by around 6% in the low climate change scenario, and decrease by around 8% and 16% in the medium and high climate change scenarios, respectively, relative to the current agriculture water consumption. Capital investment in irrigation equipment could mitigate the negative climate change impacts in the medium and high climate change scenarios. However, it would impose additional stresses on the existing limited water resource over time.

  2. Against the Grain: The Influence of Changing Agricultural Management on the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, J. A.

    2007-12-01

    The rise of modern agriculture was one of the most transformative events in human history, and has forever changed our relationship to the natural world. By clearing tropical forests, practicing subsistence agriculture on marginal lands and intensifying industrialized farmland production, agricultural practices are changing the worldês landscapes in pervasive ways. In the past decade, we have made tremendous progress in monitoring agricultural expansion from satellites, and modeling associated environmental impacts. In the past decade, the Earth System Science research community has begun to recognize the importance of agricultural lands, particularly as they continue expanding at the expense of important natural ecosystems, potentially altering the planetês carbon cycle and climate. With the advent of new remote sensing and global modeling methods, several efforts have documented the expansion of agricultural lands, the corresponding loss of natural ecosystems, and how this may influence the earth system. But the geographic expansion of agricultural lands is not the whole story. While significant agricultural expansion (or extensification) has occurred in the past few decades, the intensification of agricultural practices Ð under the aegis of the -Green Revolution" Ð has dramatically altered the relationship between humans and environmental systems across the world. Simply put, many of the worldês existing agricultural lands are being used much more intensively as opportunities for agricultural expansion are being exhausted elsewhere. In the last 40 years, global agricultural production has more than doubled Ð although global cropland has increased by only 12% Ð mainly through the use of high yielding varieties of grain, increased reliance on irrigation, massive increases in chemical fertilization, and increased mechanization. Indeed, in the past 40 years there has been a 700% increase in global fertilizer use and a 70% increase in irrigated cropland area

  3. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... USDA has established seven regional hubs for risk adaptation and mitigation to climate change. These Hubs will deliver science-based knowledge and ... assessments project climate impacts over the coming years: Climate Change and ... and Adaptation (PDF, 11.8MB) Effects of Climatic Variability and ...

  4. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... USDA has established seven regional hubs for risk adaptation and mitigation to climate change. These Hubs will deliver science-based knowledge and ... assessments project climate impacts over the coming years: Climate Change and ... and Adaptation (PDF, 11.8MB) Effects of Climatic Variability and ...

  5. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... regional hubs for risk adaptation and mitigation to climate change. These Hubs will deliver science-based knowledge and ... to create modern solutions to the challenge of climate change. New uniform, science-based guidance on cover crop ...

  6. Climate change and agricultural water demand: Impacts and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of concern and interest world - wide. One of the most significant impacts of the 'greenhouse effect' is anticipated to be on water resources. Thus, the impact of climate change appears to be an additional component on top of the large ...

  7. Geographical view on agricultural land and structural changes plant production Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Rajović

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE This paper analyzes agricultural land and structural changes in plant production Montenegro. The Montenegro represents a significant potential for agricultural development, but plant production insufficiently developed in relation to natural resources and the demands of intensive agricultural production. Average possession by agricultural holdings in 1960 amounts is 5.34 ha with only 2.05 ha arable area per agricultural holdings. Yet more unfavorable is the situation with arable surfaces. Namely, agricultural holdings in the Montenegro in 1960 are on average dispose with maximum of 0.74 ha of arable land. Judging by the size of the cultivated area, production volume, as well as according other parameters, plant production in the Montenegro in 2007, mainly used for meeting need households. A smaller area for is market. The role of the Montenegrin village and agriculture must be first-rate, as are its potentials, the main power future development of Montenegro. This requires radically new relationship between society and science to agriculture and the countryside. Instead of the existing approach in which they observed the preventive as producers of cheap food has to be developed a new concept, a comprehensive agricultural and rural development, which will be based on demographic, natural, economic and socio-cultural potential of Montenegro. 

  8. Risk of Agricultural Practices and Habitat Change to Farmland Birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Anthony. Kirk

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Many common bird species have declined as a result of agricultural intensification and this could be mitigated by organic farming. We paired sites for habitat and geographical location on organic and nonorganic farms in Ontario, Canada to test a priori predictions of effects on birds overall, 9 guilds and 22 species in relation to candidate models for farming practices (13 variables, local habitat features (12 variables, or habitat features that influence susceptibility to predation. We found that: (1 Overall bird abundance, but not richness, was significantly (p < 0.05 higher on organic sites (mean 43.1 individuals per site than nonorganic sites (35.8 individuals per site. Significantly more species of birds were observed for five guilds, including primary grassland birds, on organic vs. nonorganic sites. No guild had higher richness or abundance on nonorganic farms; (2 Farming practice models were the best (Î"AIC < 4 for abundance of birds overall, primary grassland bird richness, sallier aerial insectivore richness and abundance, and abundance of ground nesters; (3 Habitat models were the best for overall richness, Neotropical migrant abundance, richness and abundance of Ontario-USA-Mexico (short-distance migrants and resident richness; (4 Predation models were the best for richness of secondary grassland birds and ground feeders; (5 A combination of variables from the model types were best for richness or abundance overall, 13 of 18 guilds (richness and abundance and 16 of 22 species analyzed. Five of 10 farming practice variables (including herbicide use, organic farm type and 9 of 13 habitat variables (including hedgerow length, proportion of hay were significant in best models. Risk modeling indicated that herbicide use could decrease primary grassland birds by one species (35% decline from 3.4 to 2.3 species per site. Organic farming could benefit species of conservation concern by 49% (an increase from 7.6 to 11.4 grassland birds. An

  9. Sustaining global agriculture through rapid detection and deployment of genetic resistance to deadly crop diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Periyannan, Sambasivam

    2017-12-04

    Contents I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. References SUMMARY: Genetically encoded resistance is a major component of crop disease management. Historically, gene loci conferring resistance to pathogens have been identified through classical genetic methods. In recent years, accelerated gene cloning strategies have become available through advances in sequencing, gene capture and strategies for reducing genome complexity. Here, I describe these approaches with key emphasis on the isolation of resistance genes to the cereal crop diseases that are an ongoing threat to global food security. Rapid gene isolation enables their efficient deployment through marker-assisted selection and transgenic technology. Together with innovations in genome editing and progress in pathogen virulence studies, this creates further opportunities to engineer long-lasting resistance. These approaches will speed progress towards a future of farming using fewer pesticides. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  10. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  11. Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

    2016-03-01

    Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to

  12. Acting as a Change Agent in Supporting Sustainable Agriculture: How to Cope with New Professional Situations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerf, M.; Guillot, M. N.; Olry, P.

    2011-01-01

    How do change agents deal with the diversity of farmers' attitudes towards the future of agriculture? How do they themselves cope with change and understand their role as change agents? We chose a comprehensive, action-training approach to answer such questions and worked with agents belonging to two different extension networks. The agents…

  13. Rural demographic change, rising wages and the restructuring of Chinese agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Tianxiang; Yu, Wusheng; Baležentis, Tomas

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of recent demographic transition and rising labor costs on agricultural production structure and pattern in China during 1998-2012. Design/methodology/approach The authors, first, theoretically discuss the effects of changing relative...... by an analysis based on the visualization of land use indicators on changing cropping patterns across Chinese provinces. Findings The authors find that tightened effective agricultural labor supply and rises in rural labor costs are associated with divergent changes in input mixes and output choices across...... agriculture counteracted disadvantages caused by rising labor costs and how such adjustments are product and region specific. Based on these observations, implications regarding further innovations in production technology and institutional arrangements needed within China’s agricultural sector...

  14. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... Trade Have feedback on the new USDA.gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting ... to provide more time to prepare. Outreach and education for farmers, ranchers and forest landowners on ways ...

  15. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... USDA has established seven regional hubs for risk adaptation and mitigation to climate change. These Hubs will ... season. Assessments and regional forecasts for hazard and adaptation planning to provide more time to prepare. Outreach ...

  16. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... for land managers to respond to drought, heat stress, floods, pests, and changes in the growing season. ... New uniform, science-based guidance on cover crop management helps producers prevent erosion, improve soil properties, supply ...

  17. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... to create modern solutions to the challenge of climate change. New uniform, science-based guidance on cover crop management helps producers prevent erosion, improve soil properties, ...

  18. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... floods, pests, and changes in the growing season. Assessments and regional forecasts for hazard and adaptation planning ... content, and break pest cycles. The following two assessments project climate impacts over the coming years: Climate ...

  19. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food and Nutrition Forestry Health and Safety Organic Plants Recreation Research and Science Rural Trade Have feedback on the new USDA.gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing ...

  20. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... climate change. These Hubs will deliver science-based knowledge and practical information to farmers, ranchers and forest ... New uniform, science-based guidance on cover crop management helps producers prevent erosion, improve soil properties, supply ...

  1. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... resources, and rural economies. These threats have significant implications not just for farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners, ... the pressures of a changing climate and its effects on weather. As these risks continue and amplify, ...

  2. Synchronous Environmental and Cultural Change in the Emergence of Agricultural Economies 10,000 Years Ago in the Levant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borrell, Ferran; Junno, Aripekka; Barceló, Joan Antón

    2015-01-01

    The commonly held belief that the emergence and establishment of farming communities in the Levant was a smooth socio-economic continuum during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic (ca. 12,000-9,000 cal BP) with only rare minor disruptions is challenged by recently obtained evidence from this region. Using a database of archaeological radiocarbon dates and diagnostic material culture records from a series of key sites in the northern Levant we show that the hitherto apparent long-term continuity interpreted as the origins and consolidation of agricultural systems was not linear and uninterrupted. A major cultural discontinuity is observed in the archaeological record around 10,000 cal BP in synchrony with a Holocene Rapid Climate Change (RCC), a short period of climatic instability recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. This study demonstrates the interconnectedness of the first agricultural economies and the ecosystems they inhabited, and emphasizes the complex nature of human responses to environmental change during the Neolithic period in the Levant. Moreover, it provides a new environmental-cultural scenario that needs to be incorporated in the models reconstructing both the establishment of agricultural economy in southwestern Asia and the impact of environmental changes on human populations.

  3. Synchronous Environmental and Cultural Change in the Emergence of Agricultural Economies 10,000 Years Ago in the Levant.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferran Borrell

    Full Text Available The commonly held belief that the emergence and establishment of farming communities in the Levant was a smooth socio-economic continuum during the Pre-Pottery Neolithic (ca. 12,000-9,000 cal BP with only rare minor disruptions is challenged by recently obtained evidence from this region. Using a database of archaeological radiocarbon dates and diagnostic material culture records from a series of key sites in the northern Levant we show that the hitherto apparent long-term continuity interpreted as the origins and consolidation of agricultural systems was not linear and uninterrupted. A major cultural discontinuity is observed in the archaeological record around 10,000 cal BP in synchrony with a Holocene Rapid Climate Change (RCC, a short period of climatic instability recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. This study demonstrates the interconnectedness of the first agricultural economies and the ecosystems they inhabited, and emphasizes the complex nature of human responses to environmental change during the Neolithic period in the Levant. Moreover, it provides a new environmental-cultural scenario that needs to be incorporated in the models reconstructing both the establishment of agricultural economy in southwestern Asia and the impact of environmental changes on human populations.

  4. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

  5. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

    2011-10-15

    Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

  6. Sources of heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils of a rapidly industrializing area in the Yangtze Delta of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xianghua; Zhao, Yongcun; Zhao, Xiaoyan; Wang, Yudong; Deng, Wenjing

    2014-10-01

    The rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries have increased pollution by heavy metals, which is a concern for human health and the environment. In this study, 230 surface soil samples (0-20cm) were collected from agricultural areas of Jiaxing, a rapidly industrializing area in the Yangtze Delta of China. Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) and multivariate factorial kriging analysis (FKA) were used to identify and explore the sources of heavy metal pollution for eight metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, Cd, Hg and As). Localized hot-spots of pollution were identified for Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd with area percentages of 0.48 percent, 0.58 percent, 2.84 percent, 2.41 percent, 0.74 percent, and 0.68 percent, respectively. The areas with Hg pollution covered approximately 38 percent whereas no potential pollution risk was found for As. The soil parent material and point sources of pollution had significant influences on Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd levels, except for the influence of agricultural management practices also accounted for micro-scale variations (nugget effect) for Cu and Zn pollution. Short-range (4km) diffusion processes had a significant influence on Cu levels, although they did not appear to be the dominant sources of Zn and Cd variation. The short-range diffusion pollution arising from current and historic industrial emissions and urbanization, and long-range (33km) variations in soil parent materials and/or diffusion jointly determined the current concentrations of soil Pb. The sources of Hg pollution risk may be attributed to the atmosphere deposition of industrial emission and historical use of Hg-containing pesticides. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate change adaptation in South Korea. Environmental politics in the agricultural sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, Susann [Jena Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Economic Geography

    2015-07-01

    Climate change will impact ecosystems and production processes. Thus, adaptation to climate change has become a prevalent concept in environmental politics worldwide. In South Korea, climate change is expected to be above the global average. As response, the South Korean government has initiated climate change adaptation in diverse sectors. In this book, the entire process, from formulation and development, implementation and reaction of involved people is examined in a particular sector, agriculture. Theoretically framed as an Actor-Network, this study highlights current developments of South Korean politics, the tensions of urban-periphery development, and the status of agriculture.

  8. Changes of the agricultural enterprises economic environment originated by the agribusiness development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Věra Bečvářová

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Based upon analyses of the Common Agricultural Policy development and its economic tools reforming the process of changing is characterised there. It deals with the multifunctionality of agriculture as well as the influence of the CAP on environment of the production tasks of agriculture and food processing industry accomplishment. Paper generalises results of new trends of the agribusiness economic environment development and the opportunity of an effective utilization of production factors in agriculture. It deals with the sources and economic implications of partial enhancement of interest and redirection of support within framework and type of tools of agrarian policy. New quality of structure of relevant information needs and economic support for agricultural enterprises decision making process are pointed out.

  9. [African agriculture faced with global changes: researches and innovations based on ecological sciences].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masse, Dominique; Ndour Badiane, Yacine; Hien, Edmond; Akpo, Léonard-Élie; Assigbetsé, Komi; Bilgo, Ablassé; Diédhiou, Ibrahima; Hien, Victor; Lardy, Lydie

    2013-01-01

    In the context of environmental and socio-economic changes, the agriculture of Sub-Saharan African countries will have to ensure food security of the population, while reducing its environmental footprint. The biophysical and social systems of agricultural production are complex. Innovative agricultural practices will be based on an intensification of ecological processes that determine the functioning of the soil-plant system, farmers' fields and agro-ecosystems. This ecological engineering approach is useful to take up the challenge of Sub-Saharan agricultures in the future, as shown in researches conducted by IESOL International Joint Lab "Intensification of agricultural soils in West Africa" (ISRA, UCAD, TU, OU, INERA, IRD). Copyright © 2013 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Optical Defocus Rapidly Changes Choroidal Thickness in Schoolchildren.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danyang Wang

    Full Text Available The current study aimed to examine the short-term choroidal response to optical defocus in schoolchildren. Myopic schoolchildren aged 8-16 were randomly allocated to control group (CG, myopic defocus group (MDG and hyperopic defocus group (HDG (n = 17 per group. Children in MDG and HDG received additional +3D and -3D lenses, respectively, to their full corrections on the right eyes. Full correction was given to their left eyes, and on both eyes in the CG. Axial length (AXL and subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFChT were then measured by spectral domain optical coherence tomography. Children wore their group-specific correction for 2 hours after which any existing optical defocus was removed, and subjects wore full corrections for another 2 hours. Both the AXL and SFChT were recorded hourly for 4 hours. The mean refraction of all subjects was -3.41 ± 0.37D (± SEM. SFChT thinned when exposed to hyperopic defocus for 2 hours but less thinning was observed in response to myopic defocus compared to the control group (p < 0.05, two-way ANOVA. Removal of optical defocus significantly decreased SFChT in the MDG and significantly increased SFChT in the HDG after 1 and 2 hours (mean percentage change at 2-hour; control vs. hyperopic defocus vs. myopic defocus; -0.33 ± 0.59% vs. 3.04 ± 0.60% vs. -1.34 ± 0.74%, p < 0.01. Our results showed short-term exposure to myopic defocus induced relative choroidal thickening while hyperopic defocus led to choroidal thinning in children. This rapid and reversible choroidal response may be an important clinical parameter in gauging retinal response to optical defocus in human myopia.

  11. Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Arid and Semiarid ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Activities will include assessing crop and production systems for climate vulnerability; assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation to climate change; piloting and scaling up adaptive practices in crops, livestock and land management; and gathering and disseminating climate risk information to those who can benefit from ...

  12. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... government Here’s how you know The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites always use a .gov ... feeling the pressures of a changing climate and its effects on weather. As these risks continue and ...

  13. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... could double by 2050. Preparing for Increased Weather Risks Regional Climate Hubs In an effort to mitigate climate-related risks, USDA has established seven regional hubs for risk adaptation and mitigation to climate change. These Hubs will deliver science-based knowledge ...

  14. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

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    Full Text Available ... Animals Biotechnology Climate Solutions Conservation Data Disaster Farming Food and Nutrition Forestry Health and Safety Organic Plants Recreation Research and Science Rural Trade Have feedback on the new USDA.gov design? Share Feedback Climate Solutions Changing Climate Is Affecting ...

  15. Ideological Challenges to Changing Strategic Orientation in Commodity Agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Press, Melea; Arnould, Eric; Murray, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Why do some firms not change their strategic orientation despite economic incentives to do so? Most current literature on changing strategic orientations focuses on an antecedents and outcomes approach to business orientations. Intimated, but rarely addressed is, first, the idea that strategic or...... that ideological contestation among firms in this context takes the form of a marketplace drama between a chemical, productonist and an organic orientation in which several forms of legitimacy are mobilized by protagonists.......Why do some firms not change their strategic orientation despite economic incentives to do so? Most current literature on changing strategic orientations focuses on an antecedents and outcomes approach to business orientations. Intimated, but rarely addressed is, first, the idea that strategic...... orientations may be thought of as ideologies; and second, that such ideologies are likely to contend with each other. Taking such a perspective may be helpful in thinking about why transitioning to more sustainable strategic orientations is challenging even in the presence of financial incentives to make...

  16. Agriculture Insurance: Adaptation to Vulnerability of Climate Change in Bali, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.; Hongo, C.; Mirah Adi, A. A. A.; Tamura, E.

    2014-12-01

    Bali province of Indonesia is worldwide known for its tourist destination and it contributes more than 60 per cent to the regional domestic product. Meanwhile, agricultural sector including rice production still plays an important role in the Bali economy because of its 30 per cent contribution. Rice production in Bali is not just susceptible to loss caused by flood, drought and pest and disease attack but also from the climate change. The impact of climate change on food production in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2050, ranging from 38 per cent to more than ten-folds of the current production (Syaukat, 2011). Accordingly, adaptation to climate changes is required to minimize the risk along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. The government of Indonesia (GoI) has launched several pilot projects including agriculture insurance program to minimize the risk in production failure particularly rice farming, unfortunately Bali was excluded from the projects. Implementation of agriculture insurance in Indonesia has the legal basis now after the announcement of the Farmer Protection and Empowerment Act (Law No. 19/2013). Agriculture insurance is seen better in mitigating farmer's risk than that of the other program in rice production. The GoI plans to implement the insurance scheme in the beginning of 2015. This scheme is something "new" to farmers in Bali and Indonesia. Considering the importance of crop insurance to agriculture, this study attempts to explore the potential of such insurance to reveal a clear picture of opportunities and challenges in agriculture insurance implementation in Bali. The study empirically presents awareness and perception of farmers towards the insurance and adaptation to vulnerability of climate change. The study concludes with various suggestions for increasing the awareness of farmers for ensuring better penetration of agriculture insurance in Bali. Key words: agriculture insurance, farmer

  17. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgine G. Yorgey

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on “win-win” management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled “Agriculture in a Changing Climate,” that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next 5 years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1 cropping systems, (2 livestock systems, (3 decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4 partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight

  19. Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L

    2013-06-01

    With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to

  20. Hydrothermal iron flux variability following rapid sea level changes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Middleton, Jennifer L; Langmuir, Charles H; Mukhopadhyay, Sujoy; McManus, Jerry F; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2016-01-01

    .... Mir sediments reveal sixfold to eightfold increases in hydrothermal iron and copper deposition during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by a rapid decline during the sea level rise associated with deglaciation...

  1. Changes in population and agricultural land in conterminous United States counties, 1790 to 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waisanen, Pamela J.; Bliss, Norman B.

    2002-01-01

    We have developed a data set of changes in population and agricultural land for the conterminous United States at the county level, resulting in more spatial detail than in previously available compilations. The purpose was to provide data on the timing of land conversion as an input to dynamic models of the carbon cycle, although a wide variety of applications exist for the physical, biological, and social sciences. The spatial data represent the appropriate county boundaries for each census year between 1790 and 1997, and the census attributes are attached to the appropriate spatial region. The resulting time series and maps show the history of population (1790-1990) and the history of agricultural development (1850-1997). The patterns of agricultural development reflect the influences of climate, soil productivity, increases in population size, variations in the general economy, and technological changes in the energy, transportation, and agricultural sectors.

  2. Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

    2015-06-01

    A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Changes in population and agricultural land in conterminous United States counties, 1790 to 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waisanen, Pamela J.; Bliss, Norman B.

    2002-12-01

    We have developed a data set of changes in population and agricultural land for the conterminous United States at the county level, resulting in more spatial detail than in previously available compilations. The purpose was to provide data on the timing of land conversion as an input to dynamic models of the carbon cycle, although a wide variety of applications exist for the physical, biological, and social sciences. The spatial data represent the appropriate county boundaries for each census year between 1790 and 1997, and the census attributes are attached to the appropriate spatial region. The resulting time series and maps show the history of population (1790-1990) and the history of agricultural development (1850-1997). The patterns of agricultural development reflect the influences of climate, soil productivity, increases in population size, variations in the general economy, and technological changes in the energy, transportation, and agricultural sectors.

  4. Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes

  5. Upper Midwest farmer perceptions: Too much uncertainty about impacts of climate change to justify changing current agricultural practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lois Wright Morton; Gabrielle E. Roesch-McNally; Adam Wilke

    2017-01-01

    To be uncertain is to be unsure or have doubt. Results from a random sample survey show the majority (89.5%) of farmers in the Upper Midwest perceived there was too much uncertainty about the impacts of climate to justify changing their agricultural practices and strategies, despite scientific evidence regarding the causes and potential consequences of climate change....

  6. Changes in Soil Chemistry and Agricultural Return Flow in an Integrated Seawater Agriculture System (ISAS) Demonstration in Abu Dhabi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Q.; Matiin, W. A.; Ahmad, F.

    2012-12-01

    Growing halophytes using Integrated Seawater Agriculture Systems (ISAS) offers a sustainable solution for the generation of biomass feedstock for carbon neutral biofuels - halophytes do not enter the foodchain and they do not compete with food-crops for natural resources. A field demonstration of ISAS in the coastal regions of Abu Dhabi, UAE, scheduled to start in 2013, will likely face a number of region-specific challenges not encountered in past demonstrations of ISAS at coastal locations in Mexico and Eritrea. The arid climate, unique soil chemistry (evaporite deposits, especially gypsum), and hypersaline coastal hydrogeology of Abu Dhabi will affect long-term halophyte agricultural productivity when Arabian Gulf seawater is applied to coastal soils as part of ISAS. Therefore, the changes in irrigation return flow quality and soil chemistry must be monitored closely over time to establish transient salt and water balances in order to assess the sustainability of ISAS in the region. As an initial phase of the ISAS demonstration project, numerical modeling of different seawater loadings onto coastal soils was conducted to estimate the chemical characteristics of soil and the irrigation return flow over time. These modeling results will be validated with field monitoring data upon completion of one year of ISAS operation. The results from this study could be used to (i) determine the optimal saline water loading that the soils at the ISAS site can tolerate, (ii) potential for sodicity of the soil with saline water application, (iii) impacts of land application of saline water on underlying coastal groundwater, and (iv) develop strategies to control soil water activities in favor of halophyte agricultural productivity.

  7. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and policy options for adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Bingxin; ZHU, TINGJU; Breisinger, Clemens; Hai, Nguyen Manh

    2010-01-01

    Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture can be extensively affected by climate change, and designing effective adaptation strategies will be critical for maintaining food security, rural employment, and foreign exchange earnings. This paper examines these critical issues and thereby makes two contributions to the literature. First, we estimate the impacts of climate change...

  8. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  9. Women in Physics in a Rapidly Changing China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ling-An

    2008-03-01

    Despite the upheavals of the 20th century, physics managed to survive quite well in China, where the first woman president of the American Physical Society was born and bred. During the 1950s as a result of policies that emphasized science and engineering, declared equal rights and equal pay for men and women, and assigned jobs to college graduates irrespective of sex, the number of women in physics increased rapidly, many of whom made notable achievements. Since China's opening up over the last thirty years tremendous changes have taken place, and women now face new opportunities as well as challenges in all aspects of society. Whereas physics used to be regarded as the most elite of the sciences, new fields such as computer science, biotechnology and business are now competing for the best students. Compared with other countries the statistics are not bad; in schools and many physics departments the ratio of women teachers may be 30% or higher, but the numbers drop drastically with rank. Moreover, in some research institutions the ratio of female physicists is actually declining, due to retirement of the older generation and fewer successors. Compulsory retirement for women at an earlier age than for men is also a new factor. Conversely, in recent years the ratio of female graduate students enrolling in physics has increased, even reaching 40% in some universities. However, the reasons for this do not bode well: men are not performing so well as women in entrance exams, while the latter are facing increasing discrimination in employment so they have to seek higher degree qualifications. With the further development of China's economy there will be abundant demand for qualified personnel including women with a physics background. It is imperative to actively support the upcoming generation of women physicists and not lose them in the leaky pipeline. The Chinese Physical Society has taken certain positive steps, such as the recent establishment of the Xie Xi

  10. The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle

    2016-08-01

    Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered.

  11. The Relationship of Future Agricultural Extension Educators' Cognitive Styles and Change Strategies for Adult Learners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Robert; Irani, Tracy

    2011-01-01

    The study expands reported here Extension education's knowledge regarding characteristics of potential change agents. Graduate students learning to become agricultural Extension educators were studied to determine their definition of a change agent. Participants' cognitive styles were assessed using Kirton's Adaptation-Innovation Inventory to…

  12. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and

  13. The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    2016-01-01

    We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change...... harvesting on the same scale as the potential loss from predicted climate change....

  14. Agriculture: Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  15. Rapid method to estimate temperature changes in electronics elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oborskii G. A., Savel’eva O. S., Shikhireva Yu. V.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Thermal behavior of electronic equipment is the determining factor for performing rapid assessment of the effectiveness of design and operation of the equipment. The assessment method proposed in this article consists in fixation of an infrared video stream from the surface of the device and converting it into a visible flow by means of a thermal imager, splitting it into component colors and their further processing using parabolic transformation. The result of the transformation is the number used as a rapid criterion for estimation of distribution stability of heat in the equipment.

  16. Climate change assessment for Mediterranean agricultural areas by statistical downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Palatella

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we produce projections of seasonal precipitation for four Mediterranean areas: Apulia region (Italy, Ebro river basin (Spain, Po valley (Italy and Antalya province (Turkey. We performed the statistical downscaling using Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA in two versions: in one case Principal Component Analysis (PCA filter is applied only to predictor and in the other to both predictor and predictand. After performing a validation test, CCA after PCA filter on both predictor and predictand has been chosen. Sea level pressure (SLP is used as predictor. Downscaling has been carried out for the scenarios A2 and B2 on the basis of three GCM's: the CCCma-GCM2, the Csiro-MK2 and HadCM3. Three consecutive 30-year periods have been considered. For Summer precipitation in Apulia region we also use the 500 hPa temperature (T500 as predictor, obtaining comparable results. Results show different climate change signals in the four areas and confirm the need of an analysis that is capable of resolving internal differences within the Mediterranean region. The most robust signal is the reduction of Summer precipitation in the Ebro river basin. Other significative results are the increase of precipitation over Apulia in Summer, the reduction over the Po-valley in Spring and Autumn and the increase over the Antalya province in Summer and Autumn.

  17. [Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. II. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in Southwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Shu-Wei; Yang, Xiao-Guang; Zhao, Meng; Li, Yong; Wang, Wen-Feng; Liu, Zhi-Juan

    2011-02-01

    Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 88 meteorological stations in Southwest China, and by using statistical methods and GIS software, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in this region in the whole year and during temperature-defined growth period. In 1961-2007, the annual mean temperature in the region showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 0.18 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). The > or = 10 degrees C and > or = 15 degrees C accumulated temperature during temperature-defined growth period also showed an increasing trend, with the increment averaged 55.3 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1) and 37 degrees C x d x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual sunshine hours decreased gradually from west to east, and the decreasing trend was more significant in eastern than in western region. The sunshine hours during temperature-defined growth period showed an overall increasing trend, and the spatial difference was great. The precipitation resource had an overall decrease, with the decrement in whole year and during temperature-defined growth period averaged 10 mm x (10 a)(-1) and 8 mm x (10 a)(-1), respectively. The annual reference crop evapotranspiration generally decreased, but the decrement was less than that of annual precipitation. The reference crop evapotranspiration during temperature-defined growth period within about 53% meteorological stations decreased.

  18. A rapid mitochondrial toxicity assay utilizing rapidly changing cell energy metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanuki, Yosuke; Araki, Tetsuro; Nakazono, Osamu; Tsurui, Kazuyuki

    2017-01-01

    Drug-induced liver injury is a major cause of safety-related drug-marketing withdrawals. Several drugs have been reported to disrupt mitochondrial function, resulting in hepatotoxicity. The development of a simple and effective in vitro assay to identify the potential for mitochondrial toxicity is thus desired to minimize the risk of causing hepatotoxicity and subsequent drug withdrawal. An in vitro test method called the "glucose-galactose" assay is often used in drug development but requires prior-culture of cells over several passages for mitochondrial adaptation, thereby restricting use of the assay. Here, we report a rapid version of this method with the same predictability as the original method. We found that replacing the glucose in the medium with galactose resulted in HepG2 cells immediately shifting their energy metabolism from glycolysis to oxidative phosphorylation due to drastic energy starvation; in addition, the intracellular concentration of ATP was reduced by mitotoxicants when glucose in the medium was replaced with galactose. Using our proposed rapid method, mitochondrial dysfunction in HepG2 cells can be evaluated by drug exposure for one hour without a pre-culture step. This rapid assay for mitochondrial toxicity may be more suitable for high-throughput screening than the original method at an early stage of drug development.

  19. Utilizing intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity to bolster agricultural and forest productivity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinwall, Michael J; Loik, Michael E; Resco de Dios, Victor; Tjoelker, Mark G; Payton, Paxton R; Tissue, David T

    2015-09-01

    Climate change threatens the ability of agriculture and forestry to meet growing global demands for food, fibre and wood products. Information gathered from genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E), which demonstrate intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity (the ability of a genotype to alter its phenotype in response to environmental change), may prove important for bolstering agricultural and forest productivity under climate change. Nonetheless, very few studies have explicitly quantified genotype plasticity-productivity relationships in agriculture or forestry. Here, we conceptualize the importance of intraspecific variation in agricultural and forest species plasticity, and discuss the physiological and genetic factors contributing to intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity. Our discussion highlights the need for an integrated understanding of the mechanisms of G × E, more extensive assessments of genotypic responses to climate change under field conditions, and explicit testing of genotype plasticity-productivity relationships. Ultimately, further investigation of intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity in agriculture and forestry may prove important for identifying genotypes capable of increasing or sustaining productivity under more extreme climatic conditions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

    2016-10-01

    This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

  1. Rapid socio-cultural change and health in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, P

    2001-01-01

    health and survival have improved but at the expense of mental health. The incidence of tuberculosis and the infant mortality rate have decreased because of improved socioeconomic conditions and health care. Mental health has deteriorated parallel to the rapid modernization of Greenlandic society...

  2. Functional foods and urban agriculture: two responses to climate change-related food insecurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Jane M; Donati, Kelly J; Pike, Lucy L; Hattersley, Libby

    2009-01-01

    Affluent diets have negative effects on the health of the population and the environment. Moreover, the ability of industrialised agricultural ecosystems to continue to supply these diets is threatened by the anticipated consequences of climate change. By challenging the ongoing supply the diets of affluent countries, climate change provides a population and environmental health opportunity. This paper contrasts two strategies for dealing with climate change-related food insecurity. Functional foods are being positioned as one response because they are considered a hyper-efficient mechanism for supplying essential micronutrients. An alternative response is civic and urban agriculture. Rather than emphasising increased economic or nutritional efficiencies, civic agriculture presents a holistic approach to food security that is more directly connected to the economic, environmental and social factors that affect diet and health.

  3. Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture Stressed by Changing Extremes of Drought and Excess Moisture: A Conceptual Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Wheaton

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the climate changes, the effects of agriculture on the environment may change. In the future, an increasing frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves, and excess moisture, is expected. Past research on the interaction between environment and resources has focused on climate change effects on various sectors, including agricultural production (especially crop production, but research on the effects of climate change using agri-environmental indicators (AEI of environmental sustainability of agriculture is limited. The aim of this paper was to begin to address this knowledge gap by exploring the effects of future drought and excess moisture on environmental sustainability of agriculture. Methods included the use of a conceptual framework, literature reviews, and an examination of the climate sensitivities of the AEI models. The AEIs assessed were those for the themes of soil and water quality, and farmland management as developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Additional indicators included one for desertification and another for water supply and demand. The study area was the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. We found that the performance of several indicators would likely decrease in a warming climate with more extremes. These indicators with declining performances included risks for soil erosion, soil salinization, desertification, water quality and quantity, and soil contamination. Preliminary trends of other indicators such as farmland management were not clear. AEIs are important tools for measuring climate impacts on the environmental sustainability of agriculture. They also indicate the success of adaptation measures and suggest areas of operational and policy development. Therefore, continued reporting and enhancement of these indicators is recommended.

  4. Soil conservation under climate change: use of recovery biomasses on agricultural soil subjected to the passage of agricultural machinery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Beni, C.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    Biomass administration is a good practice to preserve the soil fertility in climate change conditions. A test regarding the use of compost derived by wine distillation residues was conducted in the coastal area sited west of Rome, on a sandy soil in continuous cropping with carrot, two cycles per year, with a consequent deep environmental impact. The soil was fertilized with different systems: T = unfertilized soil; F = fertigation 200 kg N ha-1; FC = fertigation 100 kg N ha-1 plus half agronomic dose of compost 4 t ha-1; C2 = double compost dose 16 t ha-1; C4 = quadruple compost dose 32 t ha-1. The functional qualities of the soil, subjected to the passage of agricultural machineries, were determined through the following parameters: bulk density, shear strength, water infiltration rate, organic matter and nitrogen content, cation exchange capacity. At the summer harvest, yield of carrots, their sugar content, firmness and nutrients concentration were determined. The plots only amended (C2 and C4), compared to other treatments, presented lower bulk density (1.36 and 1.28 Mg m-3 respectively), higher shear strength (9 and 8 kPa respectively), as well as increased hydraulic conductivity. In these treatments (C2 and C4), in addition, occurred a higher content of organic matter (0.95 and 1.07% respectively) and nitrogen (0.11 and 0.12% respectively) and increased CEC (541 and 556 respectively) respect to the T treatment that was 521 meq 100g-1. In plots T and F, the organic matter content was reduced at the end of the field test. The yield of carrots increased in FC, C2, and C4, compared to the other treatments. In plots C4, however, morphological changes were induced in approximately 30% of tap-roots, due to the excessive compost dose. In treatments C2 and C4 was observed a reduction of the concentration of Na in the roots, as opposed to the higher concentration of Ca and K and trace elements. The administration of compost has also induced the increase of soluble

  5. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  6. Assessment of changes in smile after rapid maxillary expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Morales Cobra de Carvalho

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated changes in the smile characteristics of patients with maxillary constriction submitted to rapid maxillary expansion (RME. METHODS: The sample consisted of 81 extraoral photographs of maximum smile of 27 patients with mean age of 10 years, before expansion and 3 and 6 months after fixation of the expanding screw. The photographs were analyzed on the software Cef X 2001, with achievement of the following measurements: Transverse smile area, buccal corridors, exposure of maxillary incisors, gingival exposure of maxillary incisors, smile height, upper and lower lip thickness, smile symmetry and smile arch. Statistical analysis was performed by analysis of variance (ANOVA, at a significance level of 5%. RESULTS: RME promoted statistically significant increase in the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors; maintenance of right and left side smile symmetry and of the lack of parallelism between the curvature of the maxillary incisal edges and lower lip border. CONCLUSIONS: RME was beneficial for the smile esthetics with the increase of the transverse smile dimension and exposure of maxillary central and lateral incisors.INTRODUÇÃO: esse estudo avaliou as alterações das características do sorriso de pacientes com atresia maxilar submetidos à expansão rápida da maxila (ERM. MÉTODOS: a amostra consistiu de 81 fotografias extrabucais do sorriso máximo de 27 pacientes, com idade média de 10 anos, antes da expansão e aos três e seis meses após a fixação do parafuso expansor. As análises das fotografias foram realizadas por meio do programa Cef X 2001, e as seguintes medidas foram analisadas: dimensão transversal do sorriso, corredores bucais, quantidade de exposição dos incisivos superiores, exposição gengival dos incisivos superiores, altura do sorriso, espessuras dos lábios superior e inferior, simetria e arco do sorriso. As alterações no sorriso durante

  7. Quality indicators in subtropical soils of Formosa, Argentina: Changes for agriculturization process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Esteban Baridón

    2014-12-01

    The changes produced in the Typic Hapludolls and Typic Argiudolls after 25 years of continuously using native forests, agriculture, fruit plantations and pastures were analyzed. These changes were in pH, electrical conductivity, total organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, total nitrogen, structural stability, hydraulic conductivity, respiration and dehydrogenase and urease and enzyme activity. Variables with significant differences between diverse uses were evaluated by multivariate methods, Principal Component Analysis, and Correlation Analysis. The results of this study showed that total organic carbon, particulate organic carbon, structural stability and dehydrogenase activity are the quality indicators most affected by agriculturization. All are related to organic matter.

  8. Building the capacity of Extension educators to address climate change and agricultural sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, T. B.; Doll, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    It is evident that changes in climate will adversely impact various sectors including agriculture and natural resources worldwide. Increased temperatures, longer than normal growing seasons, more frequent extreme weather events, decreased winter snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and vulnerability to pest are some of the examples of changes and impacts documented in the literature. According to the IPCC 2007, mainstreaming` climate change issues into decision-making is an important aspect for sustainability. Due to the lack of locally and regionally focused educational programs, it becomes difficult for people to translate the science into meaningful actions. One of the strengths of the Cooperative Extension system is that it is one of the most trusted sources of science-based information that is locally relevant. In order to utilize strong network of Cooperative Extension system, we implemented a project to provide regionally tailored climate change and sustainable agriculture professional development for Cooperative Extension and Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS) educators in 12 states in north central US. We conducted these activities: 1) creation and dissemination of a Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture Resource Handbook and a curriculum and 2) two climate change and sustainable agriculture workshops. In general, this project resulted in improved ability of Cooperative Extension academics to respond to climate change questions with science-based information. Several workshop attendees also integrated information provided to them through resource handbook and curriculum into their existing programming. In the long-term, we hope these programs will result in educators and farmers making informed choices and recommendations that lead to sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change.

  9. California’s drought as opportunity: Redesigning U.S. agriculture for a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katlyn S. Morris

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The impacts of climate change are already affecting the production and profitability of agricultural systems, and these trends are expected to continue in the future. Without support from ecosystem functions, an agricultural system designed exclusively to maximize short-term production is vulnerable to extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. This results in high costs for farmers and ultimately for society at large, in economic and ecological terms. Complex agroecosystems that maximize biological interactions and conserve soil are better protected from extreme events, and thus are overall more resilient to climate change. This paper reviews the evidence demonstrating greater resilience on farms that maximize diversity, build soil organic matter, and incorporate other agroecological or ‘sustainable’ practices. We then discuss the current water crisis in California in the context of the vulnerability of our current agricultural systems to climate change, highlighting this as an opportunity to redirect agricultural policies and economic incentives. The projected increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes calls for policies that are concerned not only with present crises, but that also encourage a new culture of forward-thinking practices around land and water use. We highlight France’s new Law for the Future of Agriculture, Food and Forestry as an example of national policy supporting agroecology. Applying an agroecological approach to increase resilience will enable the U.S. to tackle the twin challenges of food production and increasing climatic unpredictability.

  10. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  11. National-scale estimation of changes in soil carbon stocks on agricultural lands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eve, Marlen D; Sperow, Mark; Paustian, Keith; Follett, Ronald F

    2002-01-01

    Average annual net change in soil carbon stocks under past and current management is needed as part of national reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate the potential for soils as sinks to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO2. We estimated net soil C stock changes for US agricultural soils during the period from 1982 to 1997 using the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) method for greenhouse gas inventories. Land use data from the NRI (National Resources Inventory; USDA-NRCS) were used as input along with ancillary data sets on climate, soils, and agricultural management. Our results show that, overall, changes in land use and agricultural management have resulted in a net gain of 21.2 MMT C year(-1) in US agricultural soils during this period. Cropped lands account for 15.1 MMT C year(-1), while grazing land soil C increased 6.1 MMT C year(-1). The land use and management changes that have contributed the most to increasing soil C during this period are (1) adoption of conservation tillage practices on cropland, (2) enrollment of cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program, and (3) cropping intensification that has resulted in reduced use of bare fallow.

  12. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  13. Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

    2013-01-15

    Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh: The role of formal institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md Torikul; Nursey-Bray, Melissa

    2017-09-15

    Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Land Use Change and Agricultural Land Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Activities in an Hot Spot Area: A Case Study for Thrace Region of Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altürk, Bahadır; Konukcu, Fatih

    2017-04-01

    Agricultural lands that supply food, energy and ecosystem services for human life have been lost due to anthropogenic activities such as construction of roads, urban and industry areas. The significant reasons for the increase of artificial surfaces were poorly planned economic decisions by the government and internal migration due to this poorly planning. Unplanned urban sprawl also give rise to land fragmentation. Fragmentation of agricultural land affects both the agricultural production capacity and rural sustainable employment. In this study: i) Land use changes between 1990-2014 period were assessed using remotely sensed data and ii) Spatial and temporal agricultural land fragmentation were investigated using landscape pattern indice (effective mesh size), Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and Entropy method for 25 years period. The selected"hot spot" study area is located on east Thrace region of Turkey, being the service and industrial development zone where agricultural activities, water resources and natural habitat have been damaged due to rapid urban and industrial development for about 25 years. The results showed that agricultural lands decreased 6.44%, urban areas increased 111.68% and industry areas increased 251.19% during this 25 years period. Additionally, fragmentation analyses demonstrated that core agricultural areas sharply decreased and relative fragmentation (effective mesh size) increased from 50.68% to 56.77% during 1990 and 2014.

  16. Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

    2009-12-01

    We present a study of potential impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in two contrasting regions, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and the Northern Great Plains in the United States. The Aral Sea basin is one of the most anthropogenically modified areas of the world; it is also a zone of a water-related ecological crisis. We concentrate on studying water security of five countries in the region, which inherit their water regulation from the planned economy of USSR. Water management was targeted at maximizing agricultural output through diverting the river flow into an extensive and largely ineffective network of irrigation canals. The current water crisis is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region. In the same way as the Aral Sea basin, the Northern Great Plains is expected to be a region heavily impacted by climate change. We concentrate on

  17. Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Karin Barrueto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models foresee changes in temperature and precipitation regimes that shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural market systems. Understanding the influence of climate change on the different sub-sectors and functions of a market system is crucial to increasing the systems’ climate resilience and to ensuring the long-term viability of the sectors. Our research applies a new approach to climate change analysis to better understand the influence of climate change on each step of an agricultural market system—on its core (processing units, storage facilities and sales and support functions (sapling supply, research, insurance and agricultural policy. We use spatial climate analyses to investigate current and projected changes in climate for different regions in Nepal. We then analyse the risks and vulnerabilities of the sub-sectors banana, charcoal, coffee, macadamia, orange, vegetables and walnut. Our results show that temperatures and precipitation levels will change differently depending on the climatic regions, and that climate change elicits different responses from the market functions both between and within each of the different sub-sectors. We conclude that climate-related interventions in market systems must account for each different market function’s specific response and exposure to climate change, in order to select adaptation measures that ensure long-term climate resilience.

  18. Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

    2016-12-01

    With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

  19. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  20. Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

    2009-01-01

    Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

  1. Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaveri, Esha; Grogan, Danielle S.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Frolking, Steve; Lammers, Richard B.; Wrenn, Douglas H.; Prusevich, Alexander; Nicholas, Robert E.

    2016-08-01

    India is one of the world’s largest food producers, making the sustainability of its agricultural system of global significance. Groundwater irrigation underpins India’s agriculture, currently boosting crop production by enough to feed 170 million people. Groundwater overexploitation has led to drastic declines in groundwater levels, threatening to push this vital resource out of reach for millions of small-scale farmers who are the backbone of India’s food security. Historically, losing access to groundwater has decreased agricultural production and increased poverty. We take a multidisciplinary approach to assess climate change challenges facing India’s agricultural system, and to assess the effectiveness of large-scale water infrastructure projects designed to meet these challenges. We find that even in areas that experience climate change induced precipitation increases, expansion of irrigated agriculture will require increasing amounts of unsustainable groundwater. The large proposed national river linking project has limited capacity to alleviate groundwater stress. Thus, without intervention, poverty and food insecurity in rural India is likely to worsen.

  2. Recommendations arising from an analysis of changes to the Australian agricultural research, development and extension system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hunt, Warren; Birch, Colin; Vanclay, Frank; Coutts, Jeff

    The business of agricultural research, development and extension (RD&E) has undergone considerable change in Australia since the late 1980s, moving from a domain largely dominated by government departments to a situation of multiple actors, and where rural industries now directly contribute funds

  3. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A.; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S.; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; MacKinnon, James L.

    2014-01-01

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change. PMID:24535397

  4. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  5. Structural equation modeling facilitates transdisciplinary research on agriculture and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is representative of many of the “grand challenges” facing agriculture and the environment—it is complex, spans traditional disciplinary boundaries, and is both a consequence and driver of coupled physical, biological, and socioeconomic processes acting at multiple spatial and tempora...

  6. From alternative Agriculture to the Food Industry, The Need for Changes in Food Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Heine; Nielsen, Thorkild

    1997-01-01

    have established rules and control systems for organic agriculture (the last decade). A break-through of organic food production is now taking place in some EU member states. This third change is indicated by more positive attitudes to organic products from the food industry but also by an increasing...

  7. People's response to policy change in agricultural development organization : the Benin case

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tossou, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    This book is about change. It deals with the way in which social actors, be they individuals or groups, involved in the agricultural development of Benin reconstruct for themselves the new policy context in order to develop relevant strategies translating policy measures into practical

  8. Framing Climate Change Communication to Prompt Individual and Collective Action among Adolescents from Agricultural Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Kathryn T.; King, Tasha L.; Selm, Kathryn R.; Peterson, M. Nils; Monroe, Martha C.

    2018-01-01

    Climate communication research suggests strategic message framing may help build public consensus on climate change causes, risks and solutions. However, few have investigated how framing applies to adolescents. Similarly, little research has focused on agricultural audiences, who are among the most vulnerable to and least accepting of climate…

  9. Shifting Control? The changes of internal governance in agricultural cooperaties in the EU

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijman, J.; Hanisch, M.; Sangen, van der G.

    2014-01-01

    Governance describes a firm´s system of decision-making, direction and control. Over the last decades agricultural cooperatives in Europe have been pursuing innovations in internal governance structures. As a response to changing market environments, cooperatives adjust the size and composition of

  10. Climate change, agriculture and water resources in the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    In February 2014 the USDA established regional climate hubs across the United States to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. The Southwest (SW) region encompasses six states which provide highly diverse agricultural crops including cotton, stone fruit ...

  11. Changes in the Intra-household Roles in Agriculture among Tiv ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assessed the changes in the household roles in agriculture among the Tiv farmers during the colonial and post-colonial period. Data were collected with interview schedule that was administered to 315 household heads who are aged 50years and above. The analytical tools used included descriptive statistics ...

  12. Focus on Agriculture and Forestry Benefits of Reducing Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    The objective of this focus issue is to present the methods and results of modeling exercises that estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry under a consistent set of climate projections that represent futures with and without global-scale GHG mitigation....

  13. Changes in Sensory Evoked Responses Coincide with Rapid Improvement in Speech Identification Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alain, Claude; Campeanu, Sandra; Tremblay, Kelly

    2010-01-01

    Perceptual learning is sometimes characterized by rapid improvements in performance within the first hour of training (fast perceptual learning), which may be accompanied by changes in sensory and/or response pathways. Here, we report rapid physiological changes in the human auditory system that coincide with learning during a 1-hour test session…

  14. Bio-physical vs. Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on World Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.

    2010-12-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. The recent paper by Hertel, Burke and Lobell (GEC, 2010) considers three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change, corresponding to the fifth, fiftieth, and ninety fifth percentiles of projected yield distributions for the world’s crops in 2030. They evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, their low productivity scenario reveals the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have hitherto focused on the most likely outcomes. The poverty impacts of price changes under the extremely adverse scenario are quite heterogeneous and very significant in some population strata. They conclude that it is critical to look beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields and highly aggregated poverty impacts. In this paper, we conduct a more formal, systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) with respect to uncertainty in the biophysical impacts of climate change on agriculture, by explicitly specifying joint distributions for global yield changes - this time focusing on 2050. This permits us to place confidence intervals on the resulting price impacts and poverty results which reflect the uncertainty inherited from the biophysical side of the analysis. We contrast this with the economic uncertainty inherited from the global general equilibrium model (GTAP), by undertaking SSA with respect to the behavioral parameters in that model. This permits us to assess which type of uncertainty is more important for regional price and poverty outcomes. Finally, we undertake a

  15. Breeding for plant adaptations and agricultural measures in response to climatic changes in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popović Aleksandar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving the production of different cultivated plant species is of great importance for both human and animals, as well as for industrial processing. In the light of global climate changing and searching for renewable sources of energy, this task becomes even more important. Scientists from different areas of research, are actively involved in solving this complex task. Climate changes represent a big challenge not only for agricultural practices, but also for the process of shaping agricultural strategies. Recent studies indicate that climate changes can not be stopped. Constantly growing problems brought by global climate changes could be, to a larger extent, overcome by breeding programs, along with application of adequate agrotechnical measures. Thus, development of new varieties and hybrids with improved performances in response to more frequent and unfavorable environmental conditions, is of prime importance in breeding centers.

  16. A structural Ricardian valuation of climate change impacts on agriculture in Pakistan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Mirza Nomman

    2013-07-01

    This book presents the economic analysis of the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Pakistan. Particular emphasis is laid on the magnitude of implicit adaptations in overall climate impact assessment and the analysis of selected adaptation options. Using a hedonic pricing model and a revealed choice approach, this study identifies the impacts of climate change on agricultural incomes, depicts the spatial patterns and seasonality of the impacts, and models the future adaptation behavior of farmers in the crop sector. A high sensitivity of farming in Pakistan to climate change is confirmed. With a changing climate and income in mind, farmers in Pakistan are more likely to choose rice, vegetables and maize, whereas they move away from wheat, sugarcane, cotton and fruits.

  17. Linking the Agricultural Production and Climate Change in Central Asia: 1991-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatarskii, V.; Shemyakina, O.; Sokolik, I. N.

    2016-12-01

    We present results of the impact of climate change on the agricultural output in Central Asia (CA) since 1991. While profit-maximizing farmers in the market based economies would be expected to change their cropping patterns fairly fast in response to climate change, we do not expect that to happen in the CA region that was for a long time driven by Soviet production plans with a limited room for personal choice. We explore the relationship between the agricultural productivity (measured by the actual output) and the variations in average monthly temperatures during growing seasons and precipitation. The climate data for Central Asia are generated using the Weather Research (WRF) Model for 1985-2012. We make use of data on air temperature on 2m height, C, and total precipitation. The data on the agricultural production comes from the State Statistical Agencies of the three Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Data on agricultural production for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are not available from online government sources. We model the agricultural production as a function of annual realization of weather in a specific region. This economic approach includes converting daily temperature into degree days, which represents heating units. The two key weather variables are a measure of heat (degree days) and total precipitation in the growing season, April 1st to October 30th. Preliminary regression results estimated for Kazakhstan, indicate that degree days during growing season is negatively and total precipitation is positively associated with the agricultural output. Both coefficients are not statistically significant. Further analysis will include data from other countries and also by the region.

  18. Changes in nasal volume of patients undergoing rapid maxillary expansion

    OpenAIRE

    Muniz, Renata Da Fonseca Lacerda E; Mario Cappellette Jr.; Daniela Carlini

    2008-01-01

    Os efeitos da disjunção maxilar na resistência nasal e fluxo aéreo têm sido amplamente discutidos na literatura, com controvérsias. Suas indicações esqueléticas e dentárias parecem estar bem claras. Porém, aquelas puramente rinológicas não são justificadas, porque nem sempre resultados positivos são encontrados. Este estudo teve por finalidade avaliar a repercussão da disjunção maxilar ortopédica no aspecto respiratório e rinológico dos pacientes submetidos a esse procedimento.Rapid maxillary...

  19. Adaptation to climatic changes in agriculture and horticulture; Tilpasning til klimaaendringer i landbrug og havebrug

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olesen, J.E. [Danmrks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Jordbrugsproduktionog Miljoe (Denmark); Jacobsen, Brian H. [KVL, Foedevareoekonomisk Institut (Denmark); Thorup-Kristensen, K.; Andersson, Niels [Danmarks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Havebrugsproduktion (Denmark); Kudsk, P.; Joergensen, Lise N.; Hansen, Lars M. [Danmarks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Plantebeskyttelse og Skadedyr (Denmark); Nielsen, Birte L. [Danmarks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Husdyrsundhed, Velfaerd og Ernaering (Denmark); Boelt, B. [Danmarks Jordbrugsforskning, Afd. for Genetik og Bioteknologi (Denmark)

    2006-12-15

    Denmark is an important agricultural country with a large export of livestock products and seeds. The agricultural exports constitute 11% of total exports from Denmark. There has been an increasing focus on the environmental effects of agriculture, which has led to action plans for reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions and limitation in pesticide usage. The anthropogenic climate changes are expected over a 100 year period for the most commonly used emissions scenarios to lead to increases in the annual mean temperature of 3-5 deg. C. The winter precipitation will increase by 20-40% and summer precipitation will decrease by 10-25%. Danish agriculture will be favourably positioned with respect the expected effects of climate changes on production potential. Utilisation of this potential requires adaptation in cropping and management practices. A distinction can be made between short-term adaptations, which aim at optimising production under current conditions, and long-term adaptations, which involve changes in production structure, land use, irrigation systems etc. and development and adaptation of new crop species and varieties. Most adaptations will be able to happen autonomously in the sector, i.e. without overall control and planning. However, this requires that the climatic changes occurs sufficiently slowly and that research, development and advice within the sector is aware that changes in climatic conditions require that older data and experience must be used with caution. An adaptation strategy will be required within the interaction between agriculture and environment. This is due to the comprehensive regulations within this area. A regulated and controlled adaptation is therefore expected to be particularly relevant within drainage of lowlands, irrigation, fertilisation and crop protection. (au)

  20. Socio-economic and Environmental Impacts of Technological Change in Bangladesh Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Rahman, S

    1998-01-01

    Widespread controversies exist on the delayed consequences of technological change or ‘Green Revolution’ technology in agriculture largely due to the approach utilized in the evaluation process and the extent of issues covered. Early evaluations, focussing on issues of production, employment, and income only, failed to account for the delayed consequences of technological change on regional variations, gender equity, poverty and the environment. The present study employed a holistic approach ...

  1. People's response to policy change in agricultural development organization : the Benin case

    OpenAIRE

    Tossou, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    This book is about change. It deals with the way in which social actors, be they individuals or groups, involved in the agricultural development of Benin reconstruct for themselves the new policy context in order to develop relevant strategies translating policy measures into practical objectives and concrete actions. The main objectives of the study are to:

    (1) understand the official definitions of the changing conditions in each of the cases studied and the rationales supp...

  2. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    OpenAIRE

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate ...

  3. Technologies for adaptation to climate change. Examples from the agricultural and water sectors in Lebanon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Stephan, Jean

    2015-01-01

    for integrating adaptation technologies into the planning and implementation of on-going and future projects. Based on local-level data from a technology needs assessment project in Lebanon, this paper presents two examples of the economic feasibility of implementing adaptation technologies in the agricultural......Increasing attention is being given to climate technologies on the international climate change agenda, not least in the agricultural sector and water sectors, and to technologies for adaptation. However investments in technology-based adaptation (seeds, dams, irrigation, etc.) are complicated...

  4. Sustainable agriculture

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lichtfouse, Eric

    2009-01-01

    ... : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 9 Part I CLIMATE CHANGE Soils and Sustainable Agriculture: A Review : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Rattan Lal 15 Soils and Food Sufficiency...

  5. Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing-Guo Mo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP, where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation–ET about 4%–24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%–15.9% in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

  6. Possible adaptation measures of agriculture sector in the Nile Delta to climate change impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Attaher

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The overall agricultural system in the Nile Delta region is considered as one of the highest intensive and complicated agriculture systems in the world. According to the recent studies, the Nile Delta region is one of the highly vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. Sea level rise, soil and water degradation, undiversified crop-pattern, yield reduction, pests and disease severity, and irrigation and drainage management were the main key factors that increased vulnerability of the agriculture sector in that region. The main objective of this study is to conduct a community-based multi-criteria adaptation assessment in the Nile Delta using a preset questionnaire. A list of possible adaptation measures for agriculture sector was evaluated. The results indicated that the Nile Delta growers have strong perceptions to act positively to reduce the impacts of climate change. They reflected the need to improve the their adaptive capacity based on clear scientific message with adequate governmental support to coop with the negative impacts of climate change.

  7. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  8. Agriculture in the Fertile Crescent: Continuity and change under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Fertile Crescent is a highly biodiverse region where most temperate-zone agricultural species originated and were first domesticated. A favorable environment, a special plant community, and an adaptive population combined to initiate the transition from a hunter-gatherer economy to one based on ...

  9. Rapid response to climate change in a marginal sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Josey, S A; Borghini, M; Aracri, S; Sparnocchia, S

    2017-06-22

    The Mediterranean Sea is a mid-latitude marginal sea, particularly responsive to climate change as reported by recent studies. The Sicily Channel is a choke point separating the sea in two main basins, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Here, we report and analyse a long-term record (1993-2016) of the thermohaline properties of the Intermediate Water that crosses the Sicily Channel, showing increasing temperature and salinity trends much stronger than those observed at intermediate depths in the global ocean. We investigate the causes of the observed trends and in particular determine the role of a changing climate over the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Intermediate Water is formed. The long-term Sicily record reveals how fast the response to climate change can be in a marginal sea like the Mediterranean Sea compared to the global ocean, and demonstrates the essential role of long time series in the ocean.

  10. Changes in hydrology and salinity accompanying a century of agricultural conversion in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayawickreme, Dushmantha H; Santoni, Celina S; Kim, John H; Jobbágy, Esteban G; Jackson, Robert B

    2011-10-01

    Conversions of natural woodlands to agriculture can alter the hydrologic balance, aquifer recharge, and salinity of soils and groundwater in ways that influence productivity and sustainable land use. Using a land-use change chronosequence in semiarid woodlands of Argentina's Espinal province, we examined the distribution of moisture and solutes and estimated recharge rates on adjacent plots of native woodlands and rain-fed agriculture converted 6-90 years previously. Soil coring and geoelectrical profiling confirmed the presence of spatially extensive salt accumulations in dry woodlands and pervasive salt losses in areas converted to agriculture. A 1.1-km-long electrical resistivity transect traversing woodland, 70-year-old agriculture, and woodland, for instance, revealed a low-resistivity (high-salinity) horizon between approximately 3 m and 13 m depth in the woodlands that was virtually absent in the agricultural site because of leaching. Nine-meter-deep soil profiles indicated a 53% increase in soil water storage after 30 or more years of cultivation. Conservative groundwater-recharge estimates based on chloride tracer methods in agricultural plots ranged from approximately 12 to 45 mm/yr, a substantial increase from the 95% loss of sulfate and chloride ions from the shallow vadose zone in most agriculture plots. These losses correspond to over 100 Mg of sulfate and chloride salts potentially released to the region's groundwater aquifers through time with each hectare of deforestation, including a capacity to increase groundwater salinity to >4000 mg/L from these ions alone. Similarities between our findings and those of the dryland salinity problems of deforested woodlands in Australia suggest an important warning about the potential ecohydrological risks brought by the current wave of deforestation in the Espinal and other regions of South America and the world.

  11. New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C; Baldos, Uris; Hertel, Thomas; Diaz, Delavane

    2017-11-20

    Despite substantial advances in climate change impact research in recent years, the scientific basis for damage functions in economic models used to calculate the social cost of carbon (SCC) is either undocumented, difficult to trace, or based on a small number of dated studies. Here we present new damage functions based on the current scientific literature and introduce these into an integrated assessment model (IAM) in order to estimate a new SCC. We focus on the agricultural sector, use two methods for determining the yield impacts of warming, and the GTAP CGE model to calculate the economic consequences of yield shocks. These new damage functions reveal far more adverse agricultural impacts than currently represented in IAMs. Impacts in the agriculture increase from net benefits of $2.7 ton-1 CO2 to net costs of $8.5 ton-1, leading the total SCC to more than double.

  12. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  13. Climate change and maize agriculture among Chepang communities of Nepal: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pratiksha Sharma

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent literature concerning effects of climate change on agriculture and its agricultural adaptation strategies, climate change impacts on Chepang communities and their maize farming. Climate change is perhaps the most serious environmental threat to agricultural productivity. Change in temperature and precipitation specially has greater influence on crop growth and productivity and most of these effect are found to be adverse. Climate change has been great global threat with global temperature rise by 0.83 °C and global sea level rise by 0.19 m. Poor countries of the world are more vulnerable to changing climate due to different technological, institutional and resource constraints. In context of Nepal, practices like tree plantation, lowering numbers of livestock, shifting to off farm activities, sloping agricultural land technology (SALT and shifting cultivation are most common coping strategies. Chepang, one of the most backward indigenous ethnic groups of Nepal are also found to perceive change in the climate. Perception and adaptation strategies followed by different farmers of world including Chepang is mainly found to be effected by household head’s age, size of farm, family size, assessment to credit, information and extension service, training received and transportation. Maize is second most important crop in Nepal in which increase in temperature is favorable in Mountain and its yield is negatively influenced by increase in summer rain and maximum temperature. Local knowledge of indigenous people provides new insights into the phenomenon that has not yet been scientifically researched. So, government should combine this perceptive with scientific climate scenario and should conduct activities in term of adoption strategies and policies to insist targeted and marginalized farmers.

  14. The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

  15. Rapid millennial-scale vegetation changes in the tropical Andes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urrego, D.H.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Rama-Corredor, O.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J.O.; Thompson, L.

    2015-01-01

    We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 50 ka, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore ordination results as two approaches for

  16. Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Pellikka, Petri K E; Clark, Barnaby J F; Siljander, Mika

    2011-03-01

    Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Planetary health: protecting human health on a rapidly changing planet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Samuel S

    2018-12-23

    The impact of human activities on our planet's natural systems has been intensifying rapidly in the past several decades, leading to disruption and transformation of most natural systems. These disruptions in the atmosphere, oceans, and across the terrestrial land surface are not only driving species to extinction, they pose serious threats to human health and wellbeing. Characterising and addressing these threats requires a paradigm shift. In a lecture delivered to the Academy of Medical Sciences on Nov 13, 2017, I describe the scale of human impacts on natural systems and the extensive associated health effects across nearly every dimension of human health. I highlight several overarching themes that emerge from planetary health and suggest advances in the way we train, reward, promote, and fund the generation of health scientists who will be tasked with breaking out of their disciplinary silos to address this urgent constellation of health threats. I propose that protecting the health of future generations requires taking better care of Earth's natural systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Alveolar bone changes after asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Mehmet; Baka, Zeliha Muge; Ileri, Zehra; Basciftci, Faruk Ayhan

    2015-09-01

    To quantitatively evaluate the effects of asymmetric rapid maxillary expansion (ARME) on cortical bone thickness and buccal alveolar bone height (BABH), and to determine the formation of dehiscence and fenestration in the alveolar bone surrounding the posterior teeth, using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The CBCT records of 23 patients with true unilateral posterior skeletal crossbite (10 boys, 14.06 ± 1.08 years old, and 13 girls, 13.64 ± 1.32 years old) who had undergone ARME were selected from our clinic archives. The bonded acrylic ARME appliance, including an occlusal stopper, was used on all patients. CBCT records had been taken before ARME (T1) and after the 3-month retention period (T2). Axial slices of the CBCT images at 3 vertical levels were used to evaluate the buccal and palatal aspects of the canines, first and second premolars, and first molars. Paired samples and independent sample t-tests were used for statistical comparison. The results suggest that buccal cortical bone thickness of the affected side was significantly more affected by the expansion than was the unaffected side (P ARME significantly reduced the BABH of the canines (P ARME also increased the incidence of dehiscence and fenestration on the affected side. ARME may quantitatively decrease buccal cortical bone thickness and height on the affected side.

  19. Changing patterns in water toxicity associated with current use pesticides in three California agriculture regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brian S; Phillips, Bryn M; Voorhees, Jennifer P; Deng, Xin; Geraci, Jeff; Worcester, Karen; Tjeerdema, Ron S

    2017-11-15

    Regulation of agriculture irrigation water discharges in California, USA, is assessed and controlled by its 9 Regional Water Quality Control Boards under the jurisdiction of the California State Water Resources Control Board. Each Regional Water Board has developed programs to control pesticides in runoff as part of the waste discharge requirements implemented through each region's Irrigated Lands Regulatory Program. The present study assessed how pesticide use patterns differ in the Imperial (Imperial County) and the Salinas and Santa Maria (Monterey County) valleys, which host 3 of California's prime agriculture areas. Surface-water toxicity associated with current use pesticides was monitored at several sites in these areas in 2014 and 2015, and results were linked to changes in pesticide use patterns in these areas. Pesticide use patterns appeared to coincide with differences in the way agriculture programs were implemented by the 2 respective Regional Water Quality Control Boards, and these programs differed in the 2 Water Board Regions. Different pesticide use patterns affected the occurrence of pesticides in agriculture runoff, and this influenced toxicity test results. Greater detection frequency and higher concentrations of the organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos were detected in agriculture runoff in Imperial County compared to Monterey County, likely due to more rigorous monitoring requirements for growers using this pesticide in Monterey County. Monterey County agriculture runoff contained toxic concentrations of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid pesticides, which impacted amphipods (Hyalella azteca) and midge larvae (Chironomus dilutus) in toxicity tests. Study results illustrate how monitoring strategies need to evolve as regulatory actions affect change in pesticide use and demonstrate the importance of using toxicity test indicator species appropriate for the suite of contaminants in runoff in order to accurately assess environmental risk. Integr

  20. Consequences of Climate Change for agriculture and nature in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen Arends

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available After the publication of the IPCC reports on climate change, the Dutch Meteorological Institute of the Netherlands (KNMI conducted a study on the consequences of climate change for the Netherlands. Four different scenarios regarding the rise in temperature and their consequences have been developed. Other institutes have elaborated more on these scenarios, making predictions on the effects of climate change on nature and agriculture for the Netherlands. Overall conclusions are that climate change will have dramatic consequences for nature, agriculture and Dutch society in general, being so exposed to rising sea levels. Depending on the scenario, consequences have various gradients of impacts and effects. In general, it is estimated that winters will be softer and wetter, and that summers will be hotter and drier with intermittent torrential rains that can have dire consequences for agriculture and nature. Growing seasons will start earlier and will last longer which could lead to mismatches in species interaction. Species of various kind will suffer the effects of climate change and will disappear from the Netherlands altogether, either through extinction or by moving away north. Other warmth loving species from the south of the Netherlands will move upwards towards the country leading to possible threats to indigenous species.

  1. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  2. Dynamic changes at the rapidly advancing Yahtse Glacier, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkin, William J.; Bartholomaus, Timothy C.; Willis, Michael J.; Pritchard, Matthew E.

    2017-03-01

    Since 1990, Yahtse Glacier in southern Alaska has advanced at an average rate of ˜100 m/yr despite of a negative mass balance, widespread thinning in its accumulation area, and a low accumulation-area ratio. To better understand the interannual and seasonal changes at Yahtse and the processes driving these changes, we construct velocity and ice surface elevation time series spanning the years 1985-2014 and 2000-2014, respectively, using satellite optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. In terms of seasonal changes, we find contrasting dynamics above and below a steep (up to 18% slope) icefall located approximately 6 km from the terminus. Above the icefall, speeds peak in May and reach minima in October synchronous with the development of a calving embayment at the terminus. This may be caused by an efficient, channelized subglacial drainage system that focuses subglacial discharge into a plume, resulting in a local increase in calving and submarine melting. However, velocities near the terminus are fastest in the winter, following terminus retreat, possibly off of a terminal moraine resulting in decreased backstress. Between 1996-2014 the terminus decelerated by ˜40% at an average rate of ˜0.4 m/day/yr , transitioned from tensile to compressive longitudinal strain rates, and dynamically thickened at rates of 1-6 m/yr , which we hypothesize is in response to the development and advance of a terminal moraine. The described interannual changes decay significantly upstream of the icefall, indicating that the icefall may inhibit the upstream transmission of stress perturbations. We suggest that diminished stress transmission across the icefall could allow Yahtse’s upper basin to remain in a state of mass drawdown despite of moraine-enabled terminus advance. Our work highlights the importance of glacier geometry in controlling tidewater glacier re-advance, particularly in a climate favoring increasing equilibrium line altitudes.

  3. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Moeller, Andrew H.; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V.; Pusey, Anne E.; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H.; Ochman, Howard

    2014-01-01

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversificatio...

  4. Rapid isotopic changes in groundwater, upper Rio Guanajuato catchment, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortes, Alejandra; Durazo, Jaime [Departamento de recursos naturales, Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Kralisch, Stefanie [Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2007-01-15

    Significant changes in the isotopic composition of groundwater in the upper catchment of Rio Guanajuato, Mexico, were detected in two independent sets of samplers for 3 % of the 1600 high-production wells in the area. Sampling was done in December 1998 (53 samples), and in July - August 2003 (41 samples). Average deuterium concentration did not change between 1998 and 2003 but the average oxygen-18 concentration suggested a generalized dilution from deep water from infiltrated local precipitation. This regional change occurred within 56 months, indicating a highly dynamic hydrogeologic system. Fast replenishment of aquifer storage, or non sustainable over-pumping of old aquifer reserves, are possible explanations. [Spanish] Cambios isotopicos significativos en el agua subterranea de la cuenca alta del Rio Guanajuato, Mexico, fueron detectados en dos conjuntos independientes de muestras que incluyeron al 3% de los 1600 pozos de alta produccion del area. Los muestreos se realizaron en diciembre de 1998 (53 muestras) y en julio - agosto del 2003 (41 muestras). La concentracion promedio del deuterio no cambio entre 1998 y 2003, pero la del oxigeno-18 sugiere una dilucion generalizada del agua profunda por infiltracion de la precipitacion local. Este cambio regional ocurrio dentro de 56 meses, indicando un sistema hidrogeologico muy dinamico. La rapida recuperacion del almacenamiento acuifero o el bombeo insostenible de reservas acuiferas viejas son explicaciones posibles.

  5. Rapid changes in gene expression direct rapid shifts in intestinal form and function in the Burmese python after feeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Audra L; Card, Daren C; Ruggiero, Robert P; Schield, Drew R; Adams, Richard H; Pollock, David D; Secor, Stephen M; Castoe, Todd A

    2015-05-01

    Snakes provide a unique and valuable model system for studying the extremes of physiological remodeling because of the ability of some species to rapidly upregulate organ form and function upon feeding. The predominant model species used to study such extreme responses has been the Burmese python because of the extreme nature of postfeeding response in this species. We analyzed the Burmese python intestine across a time series, before, during, and after feeding to understand the patterns and timing of changes in gene expression and their relationship to changes in intestinal form and function upon feeding. Our results indicate that >2,000 genes show significant changes in expression in the small intestine following feeding, including genes involved in intestinal morphology and function (e.g., hydrolases, microvillus proteins, trafficking and transport proteins), as well as genes involved in cell division and apoptosis. Extensive changes in gene expression occur surprisingly rapidly, within the first 6 h of feeding, coincide with changes in intestinal morphology, and effectively return to prefeeding levels within 10 days. Collectively, our results provide an unprecedented portrait of parallel changes in gene expression and intestinal morphology and physiology on a scale that is extreme both in the magnitude of changes, as well as in the incredibly short time frame of these changes, with up- and downregulation of expression and function occurring in the span of 10 days. Our results also identify conserved vertebrate signaling pathways that modulate these responses, which may suggest pathways for therapeutic modulation of intestinal function in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  6. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-01

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  7. Optimum soil frost depth to alleviate climate change effects in cold region agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Yosuke; Iwata, Yukiyoshi; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

    2017-03-21

    On-farm soil frost control has been used for the management of volunteer potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), a serious weed problem caused by climate change, in northern Japan. Deep soil frost penetration is necessary for the effective eradication of unharvested small potato tubers; however, this process can delay soil thaw and increase soil wetting in spring, thereby delaying agricultural activity initiation and increasing nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Conversely, shallow soil frost development helps over-wintering of unharvested potato tubers and nitrate leaching from surface soil owing to the periodic infiltration of snowmelt water. In this study, we synthesised on-farm snow cover manipulation experiments to determine the optimum soil frost depth that can eradicate unharvested potato tubers without affecting agricultural activity initiation while minimising N pollution from agricultural soil. The optimum soil frost depth was estimated to be 0.28-0.33 m on the basis of the annual maximum soil frost depth. Soil frost control is a promising practice to alleviate climate change effects on agriculture in cold regions, which was initiated by local farmers and further promoted by national and local research institutes.

  8. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Becerra, Natali; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Beltrán-Paz, Ofelia; Blaz, Jazmín; Souza, Valeria; García-Oliva, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB), alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state.

  9. Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberl, Helmut; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Krausmann, Fridolin; Bondeau, Alberte; Lauk, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Plutzar, Christoph; Steinberger, Julia K

    2011-12-01

    There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO(2) on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161 EJ y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.

  10. Agricultural land-use change in a Mexican oligotrophic desert depletes ecosystem stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natali Hernández-Becerra

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Global demand for food has led to increased land-use change, particularly in dry land ecosystems, which has caused several environmental problems due to the soil degradation. In the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (CCB, alfalfa production irrigated by flooding impacts strongly on the soil. Methods In order to analyze the effect of such agricultural land-use change on soil nutrient dynamics and soil bacterial community composition, this work examined an agricultural gradient within the CCB which was comprised of a native desert grassland, a plot currently cultivated with alfalfa and a former agricultural field that had been abandoned for over 30 years. For each site, we analyzed C, N and P dynamic fractions, the activity of the enzyme phosphatase and the bacterial composition obtained using 16S rRNA clone libraries. Results The results showed that the cultivated site presented a greater availability of water and dissolved organic carbon, these conditions promoted mineralization processes mediated by heterotrophic microorganisms, while the abandoned land was limited by water and dissolved organic nitrogen. The low amount of dissolved organic matter promoted nitrification, which is mediated by autotrophic microorganisms. The microbial N immobilization process and specific phosphatase activity were both favored in the native grassland. As expected, differences in bacterial taxonomical composition were observed among sites. The abandoned site exhibited similar compositions than native grassland, while the cultivated site differed. Discussion The results suggest that the transformation of native grassland into agricultural land induces drastic changes in soil nutrient dynamics as well as in the bacterial community. However, with the absence of agricultural practices, some of the soil characteristics analyzed slowly recovers their natural state.

  11. Simulation of rapid ecological change in Lake Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, James E.; Chalupnicki, Marc; Dittman, Dawn E.; Watkins, James M.

    2017-01-01

    Lower trophic level processes are integral to proper functioning of large aquatic ecosystems and have been disturbed in Lake Ontario by various stressors including exotic species. The invasion of benthic habitats by dreissenid mussels has led to systemic changes and native faunal declines. Size-dependent physiological rates, spatial differences and connectivity, competition, and differential population dynamics among invertebrate groups contributed to the change and system complexity. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based mechanistic model of the benthic ecosystem in Lake Ontario, with coupling to the pelagic system, to examine ecosystem dynamics and effects of dreissenid mussel invasion and native fauna losses. Benthic organisms were represented by functional groups; filter-feeders (i.e., dreissenid mussels), surface deposit-feeders (e.g., native amphipod Diporeia spp.), and deposit-feeders (e.g., oligochaetes and other burrowers). The model was stable, represented ecological structure and function effectively, and reproduced observed effects of the mussel invasion. Two hypotheses for causes of Diporeia loss, competition or disease-like mortality, were tested. Simple competition for food did not explain observed declines in native surface deposit-feeders during the filter-feeder invasion. However, the elevated mortality scenario supports a disease-like cause for loss of the native amphipod, with population changes in various lake areas and altered benthic biomass transfers. Stabilization of mussel populations and possible recovery of the native, surface-deposit feeding amphipod were predicted. Although further research is required on forcing functions, model parameters, and natural conditions, the model provides a valuable tool to help managers understand the benthic system and plan for response to future disruptions.

  12. Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

    2015-06-01

    Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

  13. Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elum, Z A; Modise, D M; Nhamo, G

    2017-02-01

    Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

  14. Assessing Climate Change Perceptions, Management Strategies, and Information Needs for Indiana Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherkauer, K. A.; Chin, N.

    2016-12-01

    The agricultural and forestry sectors in the state of Indiana are highly dependent on climate and, subsequently, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, more widespread prevalence of pests and pathogens, and increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events could all have negative effects on these two sectors in the future. Agricultural and forest producers are already modifying their management strategies in response to perceptions of changes in climate risk, but such responses have been primarily reactive in nature and, in many cases, demonstrate a disconnect between scientific findings and stakeholder perceptions of the greatest climate risks. This research has been conducted to help improve understanding of climate change risks to agriculture and forestry in Indiana; stakeholder perceptions of climate risks and their current management strategies; and the effectiveness of these management strategies for dealing with current and future climate risk. Sector-specific focus groups, expert panel assessments and surveys have all been utilized in this work, which will also contribute to the new Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report.

  15. RURAL FARMERS’ PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CENTRAL AGRICULTURAL ZONE OF DELTA STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.U. Ofuoku

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Farmer perception of their environment is a factor of climate change. Adaptation to climate change requires farmers to realize that the climate has changed and they must identify useful adaptations and implement them. This study analyzed the per-ception of climate change among rural farmers in central agri-cultural zone of Delta State, Nigeria. Climate change studies often assume certain adaptations and minimal examination of how, when, why, and conditions under which adaptations usually take place in any economic and social systems. The study was conducted by survey method on 131 respondents using struc-tured interview schedule and questionnaire. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and linear regression model to test that education, gender, and farming experience influenced farmers’ perception of climate change. The results showed that the farmers were aware of climate change. The identified causes of climate change were ranging from intensified agriculture, population explosion, increased use of fossil fuel, loss of in-digenous know practice to gas flaring. The effects of climate change on crops and livestocks were also identified by the rural farmers. Many of the farmers adapted to climate change by planting trees, carrying out soil conservation practice, changing planting dates, using different crop varieties, installing fans in livestock pens, and applying irrigation. Almost half of them did not adapt to climate change. The linear regression analysis revealed that education, gender, and farming experience influ-enced farmers’ perception of climate change. The major barriers to adaptation to climate change included lack of information, lack of money, and inadequate land.

  16. Water demand and supply co-adaptation to mitigate climate change impacts in agricultural water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mainardi, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Gandolfi, Claudio

    2013-04-01

    Agriculture is the main land use in the world and represents also the sector characterised by the highest water demand. To meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades. Moreover, water availability is nowadays a limiting factor for agricultural production, and is expected to decrease over the next century due to climate change impacts. To effectively face a changing climate, agricultural systems have therefore to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crops, shifting sowing and harvesting dates, adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques). Yet, farmer adaptation is only one part of the equation because changes in water supply management strategies, as a response to climate change, might impact on farmers' decisions as well. Despite the strong connections between water demand and supply, being the former dependent on agricultural practices, which are affected by the water available that depends on the water supply strategies designed according to a forecasted demand, an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Most of the recent studies has indeed considered the two problems separately, either analysing the impact of climate change on farmers' decisions for a given water supply scenario or optimising water supply for different water demand scenarios. In this work, we explicitly connect the two systems (demand and supply) by activating an information loop between farmers and water managers, to integrate the two problems and study the co-evolution and co-adaptation of water demand and water supply systems under climate change. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). In particular, given an expectation of water availability, the farmers are able to solve a yearly planning problem to decide the most profitable crop to plant. Knowing the farmers

  17. Land Allocation in the Southeastern U.S. in Response to Climate Change Impacts on Forestry and Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian C. Murray; Robert C. Abt; David N. Wear; Peter J. Parks; Ian W. Hardie

    2001-01-01

    Forest and agriculture are the two dominant land uses in the Southeastern U.S., collectively accounting for almost 90 percent of the land base. Differences in climate change impacts on forest and agricultural productivity can lead to reallocations of land between the two sectors as landowners adjust to the changes in economic conditions. In this paper, we apply the...

  18. Managing marine disease emergencies in an era of rapid change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groner, Maya L; Maynard, Jeffrey; Breyta, Rachel; Carnegie, Ryan B; Dobson, Andy; Friedman, Carolyn S; Froelich, Brett; Garren, Melissa; Gulland, Frances M D; Heron, Scott F; Noble, Rachel T; Revie, Crawford W; Shields, Jeffrey D; Vanderstichel, Raphaël; Weil, Ernesto; Wyllie-Echeverria, Sandy; Harvell, C Drew

    2016-03-05

    Infectious marine diseases can decimate populations and are increasing among some taxa due to global change and our increasing reliance on marine environments. Marine diseases become emergencies when significant ecological, economic or social impacts occur. We can prepare for and manage these emergencies through improved surveillance, and the development and iterative refinement of approaches to mitigate disease and its impacts. Improving surveillance requires fast, accurate diagnoses, forecasting disease risk and real-time monitoring of disease-promoting environmental conditions. Diversifying impact mitigation involves increasing host resilience to disease, reducing pathogen abundance and managing environmental factors that facilitate disease. Disease surveillance and mitigation can be adaptive if informed by research advances and catalysed by communication among observers, researchers and decision-makers using information-sharing platforms. Recent increases in the awareness of the threats posed by marine diseases may lead to policy frameworks that facilitate the responses and management that marine disease emergencies require. © 2016 The Author(s).

  19. Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals

    KAUST Repository

    Torda, Gergely

    2017-09-01

    Pivotal to projecting the fate of coral reefs is the capacity of reef-building corals to acclimatize and adapt to climate change. Transgenerational plasticity may enable some marine organisms to acclimatize over several generations and it has been hypothesized that epigenetic processes and microbial associations might facilitate adaptive responses. However, current evidence is equivocal and understanding of the underlying processes is limited. Here, we discuss prospects for observing transgenerational plasticity in corals and the mechanisms that could enable adaptive plasticity in the coral holobiont, including the potential role of epigenetics and coral-associated microbes. Well-designed and strictly controlled experiments are needed to distinguish transgenerational plasticity from other forms of plasticity, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms and their relative importance compared with genetic adaptation.

  20. Rapid changes in the gut microbiome during human evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Andrew H; Li, Yingying; Mpoudi Ngole, Eitel; Ahuka-Mundeke, Steve; Lonsdorf, Elizabeth V; Pusey, Anne E; Peeters, Martine; Hahn, Beatrice H; Ochman, Howard

    2014-11-18

    Humans are ecosystems containing trillions of microorganisms, but the evolutionary history of this microbiome is obscured by a lack of knowledge about microbiomes of African apes. We sequenced the gut communities of hundreds of chimpanzees, bonobos, and gorillas and developed a phylogenetic approach to reconstruct how present-day human microbiomes have diverged from those of ancestral populations. Compositional change in the microbiome was slow and clock-like during African ape diversification, but human microbiomes have deviated from the ancestral state at an accelerated rate. Relative to the microbiomes of wild apes, human microbiomes have lost ancestral microbial diversity while becoming specialized for animal-based diets. Individual wild apes cultivate more phyla, classes, orders, families, genera, and species of bacteria than do individual humans across a range of societies. These results indicate that humanity has experienced a depletion of the gut flora since diverging from Pan.

  1. Complex interactions in Lake Michigan’s rapidly changing ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Bunnell, David B.; Carrick, Hunter J.; Hook, Tomas O.

    2015-01-01

    For over 30 years, Lake Michigan’s food web has been in a constant state of transition from reductions in nutrient loading and proliferation of invasive species at multiple trophic levels. In particular, there has been concern about impacts from the invasive predatory cercopagids (Bythotrephes longimanus and Cercopagis pengoi) and expanding dreissenid mussel and round goby populations. This special issue brings together papers that explore the status of the Lake Michigan food web and the factors responsible for these changes, and suggests research paths that must be taken for understanding and predicting system behavior. This introductory paper describes the special issue origin, presents an overview of the papers, and draws overarching conclusions from the papers.

  2. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute...... to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics......, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa...

  3. Adaptation to climate change in rainfed agriculture in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sidibé, Yoro; Foudi, Sébastien; Pascual, Unai

    2018-01-01

    -input rainfed farming systems. The natural insurance value of soil biodiversity mostly depends on farmers' risk preferences as well as on the frequency of drought events to be insured against. We show that when the probability of drought increases, soil biodiversity conservation can be an optimal ecosystem......Increased drought frequency in many parts of the world, especially in the global South, is expected due to accelerating climate change. We present a bioeconomic model that unpacks the role of soil biodiversity as contributing to both increasing and stabilizing agricultural productivity in low......-based adaptation strategy. However, this is only likely to be the case up to a given drought probability threshold. The natural insurance value of soil biodiversity for climate change adaptation in drought prone rainfed agricultural systems depends on a combination of key hydrological, agronomic and economic...

  4. Rapid maxillary expansion treatment could produce long-term dental arch changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ren, Yijin

    2005-01-01

    : Data Sources: Medline, Medline In-Process, LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature), PUBMED, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library were searched. Search terms were rapid palatal expansion or rapid maxillary expansion (RME) and tooth or dental changes. Reference

  5. Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

    2012-04-01

    In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on

  6. Mitigation strategies and unforseen consequences: A systematic assessment of the adaption of upper midwest agriculture to future climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doering, O.; Lowenberg-DeBoer, J.; Habeck, M. [and others

    1997-12-31

    Our starting point is the assumption of global climate change that doubles CO{sub 2} in the Upper Midwest by 2050. This work then concentrates on determining agriculture in the Upper Midwest successfully adapts to such a climate change.

  7. "Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

    2015-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

  8. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  9. Climate Changes and the Role of Recent Droughts on Agricultural Economy of Sistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ISSA EBRAHIMZADEH

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional economy is usually affected by the operation and interaction of environment and human beings in geographical spaces. Warm and dry areas create special economic conditions, which have particular functions, quite different from the characteristics of humid and cold hilly areas or those of the Mediterranean areas. The Sistan Region is located in South East of Iran. Until recent droughts (1999-2005, agriculture sector was the basis of all economic activities in Sistan area, a major share of rural as well as urban income came directly and indirectly from agricultural activities. In accordance with the latest census before the drought period (1996, about 55 percent of the rural population directly depended on the agriculture sector for their income and employment. In addition, almost 24 percent of rural population was depended to cottage and rural industries for their employments. In urban areas, 70 percent of population was linked to service sector as a source of employment. The results of this research show that the environmental changes resulting from drought in Sistan area have had deep impacts on the socio-economic factors in the region. It is clearer in the Hamoon Lake area, which, before the onset drought, had produced crops like fodders, mat, bird meat and fish. The livestock sector also suffered to a great extent. Out of the total of 1.6 million livestock units in the area, more than 0.5 million remained in the production cycle nowadays. The production of these crops reduced to zero with drought. The total direct loss resulted from the drought amounts to 14,057,332 million Rails or 1,561 billion US$. To sum up, the environmental changes resulting from drought caused more than 80 percent of agricultural and livestock activities in the region come to halt, which, in turn, due to a reduced income multiplier effect of agriculture sector resulted in greater damage to socio-economic factors in rural, as well as in urban areas.

  10. Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Mumby, P. J.; Hooten, A. J.; Steneck, R. S.; Greenfield, P.; Gomez, E.; Harvell, C. D.; Sale, P. F.; Edwards, A. J.; Caldeira, K.; Knowlton, N.; Eakin, C. M.; Iglesias-Prieto, R.; Muthiga, N.; Bradbury, R. H.; Dubi, A.; Hatziolos, M. E.

    2007-12-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

  11. Ethnobiology 5: Interdisciplinarity in an Era of Rapid Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Wolverton

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethnobiology 5 stems from Eugene Hunn’s four phases of the history of ethnobiology and focuses on the relevance of ethnobiological research in the context of environmental and cultural change.  It refers to a contemporary phase of the field’s historical development.  In this paper, I argue that ethnobiology is preadapted to be a scholarly umbrella for a number of disciplines that concern human-environment interactions, suggesting that one goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to bridge traditional academic boundaries in order to broaden the community of ethnobiologists. Another goal of Ethnobiology 5 is to capitalize on and communicate the relevance of ethnobiological scholarship for solving problems related to contemporary environmental and cultural crises.  Indeed, ethnobiology is not a subfield of any traditional discipline and by the nature of its name bridges humanities, social science, and science.  Ethnobiology has always been interdisciplinary in terms of its subject matter, yet its community of scholars is relatively small compared to mission-driven disciplines, such as conservation biology.  Venues for publication and presentation of ethnobiological research, as well as how ethnobiologists portray their research, are critical to growing ethnobiology.

  12. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  13. Climate Change and Soil Texture Variability Impact on Soil Water Dynamic System of RUC Agricultural Field

    OpenAIRE

    Sheng, Zhang; Aliyevski, Faredin; Dong, Xu; Rongfeng, Fu; Kristensen, Suphap

    2007-01-01

    The main focus to make an understanding on a climate system is that it comprises with many compartments such as cryosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, land and ocean and all these compartments are interacted on each other and stimulates and drives the system by solar energy. The climate change condition express itself by increased air temperature and its impact on soil (agriculture and forest), hydrology and human beings. The main focus is the soil dynamic system and the basic know...

  14. A coupled human-natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2016-09-01

    Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta-models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human-natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.

  15. Environmental Conservation in Agriculture: Land Retirement Versus Changing Practices on Working Land

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Hongli; Lyubov A. Kurkalova; Kling, Catherine L.; Philip W. Gassman

    2005-01-01

    The study develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the allocation of conservation funds via selectively offering incentive payments to farmers for enrolling in one of two mutually exclusive agricultural conservation programs: retiring land from production or changing farming practices on land that remains in production. We investigate how the existence of a pre-fixed budget allocation between the programs affects the amounts of environmental benefits obtainable under alternative policy i...

  16. REGARDS L’agriculture entre artificialisation des milieux et artificialisation des échanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vermersch Dominique

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available L’économie agricole se trouve écartelée aujourd’hui entre une artificialisation des milieux et une artificialisation des échanges marchands. Tel est le défi que cherchent à relever les nouveaux modes de soutien public à l’agriculture. Tel est aussi l’enjeu d’une réflexion éthique renouvelée sur le rapport de l’homme à la nature.

  17. Rapid response to changing environments during biological invasions: DNA methylation perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xuena; Li, Shiguo; Ni, Ping; Gao, Yangchun; Jiang, Bei; Zhou, Zunchun; Zhan, Aibin

    2017-12-01

    Dissecting complex interactions between species and their environments has long been a research hot spot in the fields of ecology and evolutionary biology. The well-recognized Darwinian evolution has well-explained long-term adaptation scenarios; however, "rapid" processes of biological responses to environmental changes remain largely unexplored, particularly molecular mechanisms such as DNA methylation that have recently been proposed to play crucial roles in rapid environmental adaptation. Invasive species, which have capacities to successfully survive rapidly changing environments during biological invasions, provide great opportunities to study molecular mechanisms of rapid environmental adaptation. Here, we used the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique in an invasive model ascidian, Ciona savignyi, to investigate how species interact with rapidly changing environments at the whole-genome level. We detected quite rapid DNA methylation response: significant changes of DNA methylation frequency and epigenetic differentiation between treatment and control groups occurred only after 1 hr of high-temperature exposure or after 3 hr of low-salinity challenge. In addition, we detected time-dependent hemimethylation changes and increased intragroup epigenetic divergence induced by environmental stresses. Interestingly, we found evidence of DNA methylation resilience, as most stress-induced DNA methylation variation maintained shortly (~48 hr) and quickly returned back to the control levels. Our findings clearly showed that invasive species could rapidly respond to acute environmental changes through DNA methylation modifications, and rapid environmental changes left significant epigenetic signatures at the whole-genome level. All these results provide fundamental background to deeply investigate the contribution of DNA methylation mechanisms to rapid contemporary environmental adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  19. Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production of Iran: I. Predicting the Future Agroclimatic Conditions

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    A Koocheki

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Future climate change may affect agricultural production through changes in both mean and variability of climatic conditions which in turn could affect crop growth and development. Results of many studies have shown that crop production systems of dry regions are more vulnerable to the predicted climate changes (5 and these impacts are mainly due to the effects of increased temperature on agro-climatic variables (4. During the last decade future changes in agro-climatic variables such as growth degree days, length of growth period and duration of dry season have been studied at regional or national scale with different results depending on studied location (1, 6. However, such information are not available for Iran. In this study different agro-climatic indices of Iran across the country are calculated for the target year 2050 based on business as usual scenario and the results are compared with the current conditions. Materials and Methods Long term climatic data (1965-2005 of 34 stations covering different climates across the country were used as the baseline for predicting future climate as well as current conditions. Two general circulation models (GISS and GFDL were used for prediction of climatic variables in the selected stations for the year 2050 based on business as usual (A1f scenario of CERES family (2 and the results were statistically downscaled for higher resolution (Koocheki et al., 2006. Daily temperatures (minimum, maximum and mean and precipitation were generated from the predicted monthly values. Several agro-climatic indices including potential evapotranspiration, length of growing season (time period between the last spring frost and the first autumn frost, length of dry season (time period where evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation which obtained from ombrothermic curve, and precipitation deficiency index (sum of differences between evapotranspiration and precipitation were calculated based on daily

  20. Induced intensification: agricultural change in Bangladesh with implications for Malthus and Boserup.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, B L; Ali, A M

    1996-12-10

    Bangladesh is dominated by a small-holder agrarian economy under extreme stress. Production shortfalls, increasing economic polarization, and chronic malnutrition are persistent, but major famine has been diverted in part by significant growth in agriculture. This recent history is open to both Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations-a history we explore here through a test of the induced intensification thesis of agricultural change. This thesis, framed by variations in the behavior of small-holders, has grown from a simple demand-production relationship to a consideration of the mediating influences on that relationship. The induced intensification thesis is reviewed and tested for 265 households in 6 villages in Bangladesh from 1950-1986. A time-series analysis of an induced intensification model provides relatively high levels of explained variance in cropping intensity (frequency and land productivity) and also indicates the relative impacts of household class, environment, and cropping strategies. On average, the small-holders in question kept pace with the demands on production, although important class and village variations were evident and the proportion of landless households increased. These results, coupled with evidence that agricultural growth involved intensification thresholds, provide clues about Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations of Bangladesh, and suggest that small-holder agriculture there is likely to continue on a "muted" path of growth.

  1. Induced intensification: Agricultural change in Bangladesh with implications for Malthus and Boserup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, B. L.; Ali, A. M. Shajaat

    1996-01-01

    Bangladesh is dominated by a small-holder agrarian economy under extreme stress. Production shortfalls, increasing economic polarization, and chronic malnutrition are persistent, but major famine has been diverted in part by significant growth in agriculture. This recent history is open to both Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations—a history we explore here through a test of the induced intensification thesis of agricultural change. This thesis, framed by variations in the behavior of small-holders, has grown from a simple demand-production relationship to a consideration of the mediating influences on that relationship. The induced intensification thesis is reviewed and tested for 265 households in 6 villages in Bangladesh from 1950–1986. A time-series analysis of an induced intensification model provides relatively high levels of explained variance in cropping intensity (frequency and land productivity) and also indicates the relative impacts of household class, environment, and cropping strategies. On average, the small-holders in question kept pace with the demands on production, although important class and village variations were evident and the proportion of landless households increased. These results, coupled with evidence that agricultural growth involved intensification thresholds, provide clues about Malthusian and Boserupian interpretations of Bangladesh, and suggest that small-holder agriculture there is likely to continue on a “muted” path of growth. PMID:8962168

  2. Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

    2014-10-01

    We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

  3. Quantifying the impacts of agricultural management and climate change on soil organic carbon changes in the uplands of Eastern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Liming; Wang, Guangxiang; Zheng, Qiaofeng; Liu, Yaling; Yu, Dongsheng; Shi, Xuezheng; Xing, Shihe; Chen, Hanyue; Fan, Xieyu

    2017-12-01

    In order to implement optimal farming practices for increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) in agro-ecosystems, there is a need for understanding how management practices and climate change alter SOC levels. This study quantified the influence of agricultural management practices and climatic factors on SOC changes in Eastern China’s upland-crop fields in northern Jiangsu Province for the period of 2010–2039, by using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC, version 9.5) model. We utilized the currently most detailed soil database, which is at a scale of 1:50,000, containing 17,024 soil polygons derived from 983 upland soil profiles. Across all the examined scenarios of agricultural management practices, our results show that the carbon sequestration potential in the upper layer soil (0–50 cm) of the study area varied from 6.93 to 155.11 Tg C during 2010–2039, with an average rate of 59 to 1317 kg C ha-1 year-1. As a promising alternative, the combined scenario of crop residue return rate of 50% and farmyard manure incorporation rate of 50% is recommended for agricultural management practice in this region. Meanwhile, climate conditions play a significant role in the annual SOC changes as well. Air temperature increase of 2–4 °C leads to 3.41–7.51 Tg C decrease in SOC under conventional management for the entire study region. Decreasing or increasing precipitation by 20% would increase 0.57 Tg C or decrease 1.09 Tg C under the conventional management scenario, respectively. Additionally, among all the soil groups, the fluvo-aquic soils have the highest C sequestration rate in most scenarios. Our findings could be used to inform optimal agricultural management toward climate mitigation.

  4. KERNEL-BASED UNSUPERVISED CHANGE DETECTION OF AGRICULTURAL LANDS USING MULTI-TEMPORAL POLARIMETRIC SAR DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Fazel

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Unsupervised change detection of agricultural lands in seasonal and annual periods is necessary for farming activities and yield estimation. Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR data due to their special characteristics are a powerful source to study temporal behaviour of land cover types. PolSAR data allows building up the powerful observations sensitive to the shape, orientation and dielectric properties of scatterers and allows the development of physical models for identification and separation of scattering mechanisms occurring inside the same region of observed lands. In this paper an unsupervised kernel-based method is introduced for agricultural change detection by PolSAR data. This method works by transforming data into higher dimensional space by kernel functions and clustering them in this space. Kernel based c-means clustering algorithm is employed to separate the changes classes from the no-changes. This method is a non-linear algorithm which considers the contextual information of observations. Using the kernel functions helps to make the non-linear features more separable in a linear space. In addition, use of eigenvectors' parameters as a polarimetric target decomposition technique helps us to consider and benefit physical properties of targets in the PolSAR change detection. Using kernel based c-means clustering with proper initialization of the algorithm makes this approach lead to great results in change detection paradigm.

  5. The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    deBeurs, K.M.; Brown, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required

  6. Climate change, household vulnerability and smart agriculture: The case of two South African provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkhululi Ncube

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate-change disasters poses significant challenges for South Africa, especially for vulnerable rural households. In South Africa, the impact of climate change at the local level, especially in rural areas, is not well known. Rural households are generally poor and lack resources to adapt to and mitigate the impact of climate change, but the extent of their vulnerability is largely not understood. This study looked at the micro-level impact of climate change, evaluated household vulnerability and assessed alternative adaptation strategies in rural areas. The results indicate that climate change will hit crop yields hard and that households with less capital are most vulnerable. These households consist of the elderly and households headed by females. Households that receive remittances or extension services or participate in formal savings schemes in villages are less vulnerable. The results suggest that households need to move towards climate-smart agriculture, which combines adaptation, mitigation and productivity growth.

  7. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

    2010-09-02

    China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

  8. [Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. IV. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in sub-humid warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi-juan; Yang, Xiao-guang; Wang, Wen-feng

    2011-04-01

    Based on the 1961-2007 observation data from 66 meteorological stations in the sub-humid and warm-temperate irrigated wheat-maize agricultural area of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of agro-climate resources for chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1961-1980 and 1981-2007. The analyzed items included the length of temperature-defined growth season and the active accumulative temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and aridity index during the temperature-defined growth season. With climate warming, the length of temperature-defined growth season of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops in the area in 1981-2007 extended by 7. 4 d and 6. 9 d, and the > or = 0 degrees C and > or = 10 degrees C accumulative temperature increased at a rate of 4.0-137.0 and 1.0-142.0 degrees C d (10 a)(-1), respectively, compared with those in 1961-1980. The sunshine hours during the temperature-defined growth season of the crops decreased markedly; and the precipitation during the temperature-defined growing season decreased in most parts of the area, being obvious in Hebei and north Shandong Province, but increased in north Anhui and southeast Henan Province. In most parts of the area, the reference evapotranspiration of chimonophilous and thermophilic crops during their temperature-defined growth season decreased, and the aridity index increased.

  9. Machine learning algorithms for modeling groundwater level changes in agricultural regions of the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, S.; Russo, T. A.; Elliott, J.; Foster, I.

    2017-05-01

    Climate, groundwater extraction, and surface water flows have complex nonlinear relationships with groundwater level in agricultural regions. To better understand the relative importance of each driver and predict groundwater level change, we develop a new ensemble modeling framework based on spectral analysis, machine learning, and uncertainty analysis, as an alternative to complex and computationally expensive physical models. We apply and evaluate this new approach in the context of two aquifer systems supporting agricultural production in the United States: the High Plains aquifer (HPA) and the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA). We select input data sets by using a combination of mutual information, genetic algorithms, and lag analysis, and then use the selected data sets in a Multilayer Perceptron network architecture to simulate seasonal groundwater level change. As expected, model results suggest that irrigation demand has the highest influence on groundwater level change for a majority of the wells. The subset of groundwater observations not used in model training or cross-validation correlates strongly (R > 0.8) with model results for 88 and 83% of the wells in the HPA and MRVA, respectively. In both aquifer systems, the error in the modeled cumulative groundwater level change during testing (2003-2012) was less than 2 m over a majority of the area. We conclude that our modeling framework can serve as an alternative approach to simulating groundwater level change and water availability, especially in regions where subsurface properties are unknown.

  10. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  11. Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

    2016-09-01

    Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

  12. Socio-economic and land cover changes analysis in a landscape with agricultural matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Viscosi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The research involved the application of CORINE Land Cover categories in order to analyse changes in land cover and in the socio-economic system over the last 50 years in Molise (Southern Italy. The boundaries of the study area corresponded to those of six local councils: Guglionesi, Montecilfone, Montenero di Bisaccia, Petacciato, San Giacomo degli Schiavoni and Termoli. It is an area which has undergone a great anthropic agricultural impact after the II World War, but, however, still has natural settings worth preserving, as can be seen by the presence of seven Sites of Community Interest (sensu “Habitat Directive” 92/43/EC. For the analyses of the land cover changes, geo-databases were consulted or specially constructed. The aerial photographs from GAI 1954-55 flight, appropriately georectified, and the aerial photograph ITA2000 and AGEA 2004 flights were adopted to draw up the land use/cover maps at a scale of 1.10.000.The study of vegetation was performed using the phytosociological method. In brief, the results show that the landscape of the study area has become more fragmented due mostly to effects of continuous human disturbances and agricultural improvement during the study period. Overall, the landscape is today characterised by the predominance of agricultural use and the sparse colonization of the natural vegetation, mainly by linear vegetational formations (mainly riparian woods.

  13. Perceptions of Socio-Ecological Changes and Their Implications on Changes in Farming Practises and Agricultural Land Uses in the Savannahs of Northeast Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kojo Boateng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the perceptions of local farming households in the savannahs of northeast Ghana about the patterns of ecological and social changes happening around them over the years. It then unpacks how those perceptions are influencing farming practices and agricultural land use changes. Theoretical and empirical understandings of the value of local resource users’ perceptual judgements about changes in their socio-ecological environment and how they respond to those changes have far-reaching implications for design of agricultural development and sustainable land management policies. Consideration of local perceptions offers more informed basis to design and implement agricultural development policies in ways that encourage active local participation, sustainable livelihoods development, and responsiveness to changing conditions. This departs from current conventional implementation systems, which are usually top-down and based on technical and political aspects of agricultural land management, but do not necessarily comprehend processes influencing the agency of local communities in shaping various agricultural land use outcomes.

  14. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Kimambo, A.; Rwehumbiza, F.

    2011-08-15

    There is limited research on bottom-up adaptation economics in general – and climate change adaptation in animal agriculture in particular – to guide adaptation actions. This study therefore tries to address costing and planning of adaptation to climate change in animal agriculture in Tanzania. The study adopted a bottom-up costing of adaptation actions that were identified using a case study approach. A questionnaire interview involving a sample of pastoralists and agro-pastoralist was conducted to identify and quantify impacts due to climate change, and currently-used adaptation actions and costs, in some selected areas in Same, Chamwino and Mvomero districts. This was followed by key informants' interviews at district and national level to get insights on developmental and climate change policies and actions, and their costs. A mini-workshop was later conducted to establish priority adaptation actions and their costs. The workshop involved local-, district- and national-level stakeholders. A country feedback workshop was then held to present initial findings and get additional inputs from experts and other stakeholders. The case study findings showed that a changing climate has resulted in environmental shocks and extreme events such as drought, excessive rains, floods and high temperatures, which have caused inadequate supply of water and pasture, increases in disease incidences, and death of animals. It is probable that in the future such events are likely to have even more serious repercussions and therefore there is a compelling need to plan mitigation measures. Through this study, various adaptation actions envisioned to be capable of fostering resilience have been identified and categorised as addressing three levels: development deficit, climate variability, or climate change-related extremes and shocks. Current annual adaptation costs were estimated at 226.7 M US$ and up to 3,987.5 M US$ by 2030; some of these costs are already being incurred by

  15. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  16. Monitoring changes in soil carbon resulting from intensive production, a non-traditional agricultural methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dwyer, Brian P.

    2013-03-01

    New Mexico State University and a group of New Mexico farmers are evaluating an innovative agricultural technique they call Intensive Production (IP). In contrast to conventional agricultural practice, IP uses intercropping, green fallowing, application of soil amendments and soil microbial inocula to sequester carbon as plant biomass, resulting in improved soil quality. Sandia National Laboratories role was to identify a non-invasive, cost effective technology to monitor soil carbon changes. A technological review indicated that Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) best met the farmers objectives. Sandia partnered with Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) to analyze farmers test plots using a portable LIBS developed at LANL. Real-time LIBS field sample analysis was conducted and grab samples were collected for laboratory comparison. The field and laboratory results correlated well implying the strong potential for LIBS as an economical field scale analytical tool for analysis of elements such as carbon, nitrogen, and phosphate.

  17. Ammonia Emissions from the Agriculture Sector of Argentina in a Context of Changing Technologies and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawidowski, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is a key sector of the Argentinean economy, accounting for 6 to 8 5% of the GDP in the last ten years. Argentina switched in the 90´s from an articulated co-evolution between extensive livestock and crop farming, with annual rotation of crops and livestock, to intensive decoupled practices. Under these new production schemes, ecosystems were supplied with more nutrients, generating increasing levels of wastes. Other changes have also occurred, associated with the shift of the agricultural frontier and the consequent reduction in the cattle stock. In addition, changes related to climate through the strong increase in rainfall in the 80s and 90s in the west Pampas, helped to boost agricultural development. The agriculture sector accounts for practically all NH3 emissions in Argentina, however no inventory has been thus far available. To bridge this gap and particularly to have accurate input information to run coupled atmospheric chemistry models for secondary inorganic aerosols, we estimated 2000-2012 NH3 emissions, both at national and spatially disaggregated levels. Of particular interest for us was also temporal disaggregation as crops growing and temperature exhibit strong seasonal variability. As no NH3 inventory was available we also estimated related N2O emissions to verify our estimates with those of national GHG emission inventory (NEI). National NH3 emissions in 2012 amounted to 309.9 Gg, use of fertilizers accounted for 43.6%, manure management 18,9%, manure in pasture 36,0% and agricultural waste burning 1.5%. Our N2O estimates are in good agreement with the GHG-NEI. NH3 estimates in the EDGAR database for 2008 are 84.0% higher than ours for this year, and exhibit more significant differences per category, namely 113,6% higher for use of fertilizers and about 500% higher for agricultural waste burning. Urea dominates national NH3 emissions, accounting for 32,8% of the total and its use for wheat and corn crops dominates the trend.

  18. Effects of climate change and agricultural adaptation on nutrient loading from Finnish catchments to the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttunen, Inese; Lehtonen, Heikki; Huttunen, Markus; Piirainen, Vanamo; Korppoo, Marie; Veijalainen, Noora; Viitasalo, Markku; Vehviläinen, Bertel

    2015-10-01

    Climate change is expected to increase annual and especially winter runoff, shorten the snow cover period and therefore increase both nutrient leaching from agricultural areas and natural background leaching in the Baltic Sea catchment. We estimated the effects of climate change and possible future scenarios of agricultural changes on the phosphorus and nitrogen loading to the Baltic Sea from Finnish catchments. In the agricultural scenarios we assumed that the prices of agricultural products are among the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change, as they affect the level of fertilization and the production intensity and volume and, hence, the modeled changes in gross nutrient loading from agricultural land. Optimal adaptation may increase production while supporting appropriate use of fertilization, resulting in low nutrient balance in the fields. However, a less optimal adaptation may result in higher nutrient balance and increased leaching. The changes in nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea were predicted by taking into account the agricultural scenarios in a nutrient loading model for Finnish catchments (VEMALA), which simulates runoff, nutrient processes, leaching and transport on land, in rivers and in lakes. We thus integrated the effects of climate change in the agricultural sector, nutrient loading in fields, natural background loading, hydrology and nutrient transport and retention processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Integrated Ocean Management as a Strategy to Meet Rapid Climate Change: The Norwegian Case

    OpenAIRE

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-01-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addres...

  20. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  1. Monitoring the Impact of Climate Change on Soil Salinity in Agricultural Areas Using Ground and Satellite Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climatic patterns have had dramatic influence on agricultural areas worldwide, particularly in irrigated arid-zone agricultural areas subjected to recurring drought, such as California’s San Joaquin Valley (SJV), or areas receiving above average rainfall for a decade or more, such as Minn...

  2. Future state of the climate change, mitigation and development of sustainable agriculture in Bulgaria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazandjiev, V.; Georgieva, V.; Moteva, M.; Marinova, T.; Dimitrov, P.

    2010-09-01

    The farming is one of the most important branches that bring the increase to the gross internal production in Bulgaria. At the same time, the agriculture is the only branch, as in home, so in world scale in which the made as well direct production spending and investing regenerating (or not) only in the frameworks to one vegetative season. In addition on this, development of the intensive farming without using the most advanced technologies such as irrigation, automation, selection - for obtaining stable cultivars and hybrids, permanent weather monitoring and agroclimatic zoning and integrated and biochemical protection to the cultures and plantations had not possible. Analysis of long-term meteorological data from different regions shows clear tendencies to warming and drying for the period of contemporary climate (1971-2000) as well in Bulgaria. Hydro-meteorological conditions in the country are worsened. The most entire estimate is made from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 2007. Most of authors proven that the last decades are really warmest for last century, even for the entire period of the most instrumental observations. The causes for global warming was long time debatable, but the last investigations prove it anthropogenetic derive. The main goal of the paper is framing in conditions of the expected climate changes in our country for period 2020-2050-2070 and the most likely impacts on the agriculture with inspection padding to the consequences in them and making physical conditions for development of proof farming in production regions of the country. By the means of the systematized database of meteorological and agrometeorological data which we have at disposition for the period of this survey (1971-2000); Provide assignment of the expected climatic changes according to the scenarios in the centers for observing and investigations of climatic changes in Europe, US., Canada and Australia (ECHAM 4, HadCM 2, CGCM 1, CSIRO-MK2 Bs and

  3. Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Mehan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

  4. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  5. Curioser and Curioser: New Concepts in the Rapidly Changing Landscape of Educational Administration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Frances C.

    1999-01-01

    The new "Handbook" assumes that society is changing rapidly and educational administration must change with it. This article critiques chapters on four concepts: ideology, the new consumerism, social capital, and the new institutionalism. Consumerism is pure 19th-century liberalism/individualism; social capital theory and…

  6. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  7. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

  8. AGRICULTURAL LAND-USE CHANGES AND RURAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatolie IGNAT

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the links between changes in the land use and sustainable rural development in the Republic of Moldova. A particular attention is addressed to the analysis of land ownership fragmentation, existing impediments for creation of sustainable agricultural systems based on principles of economic growth, social equity and protection of the environment. The following research methods such as analysis of the impact of public policies in rural areas, including in agriculture, comparative analysis, analysis of annual time series, were used. There were also used qualitative research methods such as: interviews of key stakeholders and focus groups’ interviews. Data for the quantitative analysis were collected from statistical yearbooks of the Republic of Moldova, National Land Cadastre and other available sources. The agricultural sector of the Republic of Moldova after the land reform is characterized by a polarization between large corporate farms and many small and fragmented family farms. The consolidation of land ownerships could become an effective instrument that can address both the problems of land fragmentation, but also the sustainable rural development in a wider context.

  9. The potential and sustainability of agricultural land use in a changing ecosystem in southern Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunziker, Matthias; Caviezel, Chatrina; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

    2015-04-01

    . Fredskild B (1988) Agriculture in a marginal area - South Greenland from the Norse landnam (985 A.D.) to the resent (1985 A.D.). In: Birks HH, Birks HJB, Kaland PE et al. (eds) The Cultural Landscape - Past, Present and Future, Cambridge University Press, pp. 381-393. Greenland Agriculture Advisory Board (2009). Available at: http://www.nunalerineq.gl/english/landbrug/index-landbrug.htm Masson-Delmotte, V., D. Swingedouw, A. Landais, M. S. Seidenkrantz, E. Gauthier, V. Bichet, C. Massa, B. Perren, V. Jomelli, and G. Adalgeirsdottir. 2012. "Greenland Climate Change: From the Past to the Future." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.186/full. Normand, Signe, Christophe Randin, Ralf Ohlemüller, Christian Bay, Toke T. Høye, Erik D. Kjær, Christian Körner, et al. 2013. "A Greener Greenland? Climatic Potential and Long-Term Constraints on Future Expansions of Trees and Shrubs." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368 (1624) (August 19): 20120479. doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0479. Perren, B., B, Massa, C., Bichet, V., Gauthier, E., Mathieu, O., Petit, C., Richard, H. 2012. A paleoecological perspective on 1450 years of human impacts from a lake in southern Greenland. The Holocene, 22 (9), pp. 1025-1034.

  10. Combined impacts of land use and soil property changes on soil erosion in a mollisol area under long-term agricultural development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Wu, Yuyang; Hao, Zengchao; Zhang, Qi; Bu, Qingwei; Gao, Xiang

    2018-02-01

    Soil erosion exhibits special characteristics in the process of agricultural development. Understanding the combined impacts of land use and soil property changes on soil erosion, especially in the area under long-term agricultural cultivations, is vital to watershed agricultural and soil management. This study investigated the temporal-spatial patterns of the soil erosion based on a modified version of Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and conducted a soil erosion contribution analysis. The land use data were interpreted from Landsat series images, and soil properties were obtained from field sampling, laboratory tests and SPAW (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Water) model calculations. Over a long period of agricultural development, the average erosion modulus decreased from 187.7tkm -2 a -1 in 1979 to 158.4tkm -2 a -1 in 2014. The land use types were transformed mainly in the reclamation of paddy fields and the shrinking of wetlands on a large scale. Most of the soils were converted to loam from silty or clay loam and the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K s ) of most soil types decreased by 1.11% to 43.6%. The rapidly increasing area of 49.8km 2 of paddy fields together with the moderate decrease of 14.0km 2 of forests, as well as K s values explained 87.4% of the total variance in soil erosion. Although changes in soil physical and water characteristics indicated that soil erosion loads should have become higher, the upsurge in paddy fields played an important role in mitigating soil erosion in this study area. These results demonstrated that land use changes had more significant impacts than soil property changes on soil erosion. This study suggested that rational measures should be taken to extend paddy fields and control the dry land farming. These findings will benefit watershed agricultural targeting and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Agricultural Waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Ling; Zhang, Panpan; Shu, Huajie; Chang, Chein-Chi; Wang, Renqing; Zhang, Shuping

    2016-10-01

    In recent years, the quantity of agricultural waste has been rising rapidly all over the world. As a result, the environmental problems and negative impacts of agricultural waste are drawn more and more attention. Therefore, there is a need to adopt proper approaches to reduce and reuse agricultural waste. This review presented about 200 literatures published in 2015 relating to the topic of agricultural waste. The review examined research on agricultural waste in 2015 from the following four aspects: the characterization, reuse, treatment, and management. Researchers highlighted the importance to reuse agricultural waste and investigated the potential to utilize it as biofertilizers, cultivation material, soil amendments, adsorbent, material, energy recycling, enzyme and catalyst etc. The treatment of agricultural waste included carbonization, biodegradation, composting hydrolysis and pyrolysis. Moreover, this review analyzed the differences of the research progress in 2015 from 2014. It may help to reveal the new findings and new trends in this field in 2015 comparing to 2014.

  12. ­Weather and climate change drivers of agricultural pesticide use in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, A.; Deschenes, O.

    2016-12-01

    Agricultural pesticides have numerous negative consequences for human and environmental health due to direct exposure, and associated air pollution, water contamination and biodiversity losses. As such, understanding the abiotic and biotic drivers of pesticide variability is a scientific and policy priority. Temperature is a direct determinant of insect pest development rates, and as such, it is anticipated that insect pest damage and insecticide use will increase in a warmer climate. Yet, the complexity of plant-insect interactions, diversity of crop growing regions, and uncertainty of climate forecasts have hampered predictions regarding where and to what degree climate change may alter insecticide use. Here we use a county-level, panel data set including the USDA Census of Agriculture and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-Daily) for 1987-2012 to statistically evaluate how a rich set of weather variables (e.g. degree days, frosts, precipitation) affect current insecticide use patterns in the continental US. Using climate predictions from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) we then estimate how different climate change emissions scenarios (i.e. A2, B1) are likely to impact insecticide use in different agricultural regions of the US. We find an increase in growing season temperature (degree days) leads to an increase in insecticides on average, and in most regions of the US. However, our results indicate that the effect of a warm year is heterogeneous in time with, for example, a warm January leading to a more consistent increase in insecticides than a warm July. Therefore, we estimate that while future climate change will lead to an overall increase in insecticide use, the degree to which that increase materializes will depend on how warming manifests during the year.

  13. Impact of land-use induced changes on agricultural productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Gui; Li, Zhaohua; Wang, Zhan; Chu, Xi; Li, Zhihui

    The water resource allocation is greatly influenced by the land use, agricultural productivity and farmers' income. Therefore analyzing the impacts of land use changes on agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer's income is an important basis of the further study on the management mechanism and optimal water resource allocation. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin as the study area, this study examined the impacts of conversion from cultivated land to built-up land from 2000-2005 and 2005-2008. Then the agricultural productivity was estimated with the Estimation System for Agricultural Productivity model, and the changes in agricultural productivity caused by land conversion were analyzed. Thereafter, Simultaneous Equations Model was used to analyze the impacts of the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land on the agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer's income. The results showed that: (1) The agricultural productivity was stable during the whole period, reaching about 2.84 ton/ha, 3.09 ton/ha and 2.80 ton/ha on average in 2000, 2005 and 2008, respectively, but the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had important influence on the spatial pattern of agricultural productivity. (2) The land productivity, total power of agricultural machinery and the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had an overall positive effect on the agricultural productivity. (3) The agricultural productivity and gross domestic product had positive influence on the farmers' income, while the cultivated land area per capita and percentage of farming employee had negative influence, indicating that the farmer's income was mainly contributed by non-agricultural income. These results in this study showed that optimal land use management can play an important role in promoting virtuous ecosystem cycle and sustainable socioeconomic development, which can also lay an important foundation for further research on the optimal

  14. Changes in agricultural policies and social rural property in the northern border

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco René Vidaurrázaga Obezo

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available The national and foreign capital did not arrive to the country in the terms that government was expected; in that way farmers from social and private sector did not get insert into specialized and directed project towards exports. This generated an undercapitalization on small, medium and big farmers that work to aim production at domestic market. Communal property on North Border of Mexico is doing important yet, and it will be to exist for long time despite the changes in Agricultural Policy, and basically by the change in Constitutional 27th Article from January 1992, and the passing law about the Agrarian Act on February 1992. The organization of the producers as much as social as private sector is on recession, and most of producers individually work with their own resources or financial means. This has been doing difficult to their integration to productive projects. The aim of this paper is to analyze those under gone changes by the rural property (namely ejidos, communities, agro and farm colonies of northern Mexico associated to the new agricultural policy.

  15. The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in eastern Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kahsay, Goytom Abraha; Hansen, Lars Gårn

    We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change...... for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. We also find substantial potential for mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting that substantially exceeds...

  16. In the Presence of Climate Change, the Use of Fertilizers and the Effect of Income on Agricultural Emissions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bahar Celikkol Erbas; Ebru Guven Solakoglu

    2017-01-01

    This study looks into the factual link between nitrogen fertilizer use and the land annual mean temperature anomalies arising from climate change, incorporating the effect of income and agriculture...

  17. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  18. Rapid changes in the geomagnetic field: from global to regional scales

    OpenAIRE

    Mandea, M.; Olsen, N; Monika Korte; Verbanac, G.; Y. Yahiat

    2008-01-01

    A large part of the Earth's magnetic field is generated by fluid motion in the molten outer core. Its temporal change, called secular variation, is characterized by occasional rapid changes known as geomagnetic jerks, sudden change in the second time derivative of the magnetic field. For a while, detailed studies of these phenomena suffered from the sparse distribution of geomagnetic observatories over many parts of the Earth. Recent studies on magnetic data provided by magnetic satellites, w...

  19. PESTICIDE AND GREENHOUSE GAS EXTERNALITIES FROM US AGRICULTURE — THE IMPACT OF THEIR INTERNALIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    NIKOLINKA SHAKHRAMANYAN; UWE A. SCHNEIDER; BRUCE A. McCARL

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect the use of pesticides and their associated environmental and human health impacts. This study employs and modifies a partial equilibrium model of the US agricultural sector to examine the effects of alternative regulations of the pesticide and greenhouse gas emission externality. Simulation results indicate that without pesticide externality regulations and low greenhouse gas emission mitigation strategy, climate change benefits from increased agricultural production...

  20. Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Giełczewski, Marek; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2013-01-01

    Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km2) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and mana...

  1. Dynamic diagnostic relationism: a new diagnostic paradigm for complex rapidly changing clinical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Lawrence A

    2014-01-01

    Decades of large, apparently well-designed clinical trials have failed to generate reproducible results in the investigation of many complex rapidly evolving and changing conditions such as sepsis. One possibility for the failure is that 20th century threshold science may be too simplistic to apply to complex rapidly changing conditions, especially those with unknown times of onset. There is an acute need to reconsider the fundamental validity of the application of simple threshold science in the study of complex rapidly evolving and changing conditions. In this letter, four potential axioms are presented which define a new science which assesses the probability of disease as a function of motion images of all the available clinical data.

  2. Changes in soil fungal communities across a landscape of agricultural soil land-uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthrong, S. T.; Buckley, D. H.; Drinkwater, L. E.

    2012-12-01

    Agricultural management is a major driver of changes in soils and their resident microbial communities, but we do not yet have a clear picture of how agriculture affects soil fungi. This is an important gap in our knowledge since fungi play an important role in many soil processes. Previous research has suggested that organic management practices can lead to an increase in soil fungal community diversity, which could have impacts on soil processes and alter the long term trajectory of soil quality in agricultural systems. Also, the relationship between management effects, biogeography, and soil fungi is not clear. The biogeography of macroscopic species is well described by taxa-area relationships and distance decay models, and recent research has suggested that certain subsets of fungi (e.g. AMF, litter sapotrophs) demonstrate similar patterns. However there is little information on how soil fungi as a whole are distributed across a landscape with soils under different managements. The goal of this project was to examine how different management practices alter soil fungal communities across a landscape of agricultural fields in upstate NY. We asked several specific questions: 1) Do different types of agricultural land-uses lead to divergent or convergent communities of soil fungi? 2) If soil type is held constant, do soil fungal communities diverge with geographic distance? 3) What are the major fungal groups that change in response to soil management, and are they cosmopolitan or endemic across the landscape? We studied these questions across agricultural fields in upstate NY that ranged from conventional corn, organic grains/corn, and long-term pasture. We sampled four fields (conventional, 10 and 20 year organic, and pasture) that had identical soils types and ranged from 100 m to 4 km apart. We utilized a multiplexed pyrosequencing approach on genomic DNA to analyze the structure of the soils' fungal communities. This approach allowed us to study soil fungi

  3. Comparative study of model prediction of diffuse nutrient losses in response to changes in agricultural practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vagstad, N; French, H K; Andersen, H E; Behrendt, H; Grizzetti, B; Groenendijk, P; Lo Porto, A; Reisser, H; Siderius, C; Stromquist, J; Hejzlar, J; Deelstra, J

    2009-03-01

    This article presents a comparative study of modelled changes in nutrient losses from two European catchments caused by modifications in agricultural practices. The purpose was not to compare the actual models used, but rather to assess the uncertainties a manager may be faced with after receiving decision support from consultants using different models. Seven modelling teams were given the same data about two catchments and their management characteristics and were asked to model the same changes in management practices using the model of their own choice. This can potentially cause accumulated 'errors' due to differences in the modelling teams' interpretation of relevant processes and definitions of boundary conditions (inputs). The study was carried out within the framework of the EUROHARP project, which aimed at harmonising procedures for quantifying diffuse losses of nitrogen and phosphorus from agriculture. Models are important for assessing river basin management plans (RBMPs) as required e.g. under the EC Water Framework Directive and Action Plans under the EC Nitrates Directive. This article illustrates some challenges with respect to interpreting such modelling results. The selected management scenarios include changes in fertiliser application levels, changes in livestock numbers and changes in land-use and crop rotation systems. Seven models were applied for the same scenarios in the Enza catchment in Italy and the Zelivka catchment in the Czech Republic. All models had been calibrated and validated with respect to historical data of climatic conditions, water quality and discharge measurements. The modelling results reveal a variation in predicted effects of the management scenarios, causing different conclusions with respect to choice of best management practice for reducing nutrient losses. The study demonstrates that it is important that care is taken by modellers and involved decision makers throughout the entire modelling process, both with regard

  4. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.

  5. Pyrosequencing reveals changes in soil bacterial communities after conversion of Yungas forests to agriculture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela S Montecchia

    Full Text Available The Southern Andean Yungas in Northwest Argentina constitute one of the main biodiversity hotspots in the world. Considerable changes in land use have taken place in this ecoregion, predominantly related to forest conversion to croplands, inducing losses in above-ground biodiversity and with potential impact on soil microbial communities. In this study, we used high-throughput pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene to assess whether land-use change and time under agriculture affect the composition and diversity of soil bacterial communities. We selected two areas dedicated to sugarcane and soybean production, comprising both short- and long-term agricultural sites, and used the adjacent native forest soils as a reference. Land-use change altered the composition of bacterial communities, with differences between productive areas despite the similarities between both forests. At the phylum level, only Verrucomicrobia and Firmicutes changed in abundance after deforestation for sugarcane and soybean cropping, respectively. In cultivated soils, Verrucomicrobia decreased sharply (~80%, while Firmicutes were more abundant. Despite the fact that local diversity was increased in sugarcane systems and was not altered by soybean cropping, phylogenetic beta diversity declined along both chronosequences, evidencing a homogenization of soil bacterial communities over time. In spite of the detected alteration in composition and diversity, we found a core microbiome resistant to the disturbances caused by the conversion of forests to cultivated lands and few or none exclusive OTUs for each land-use type. The overall changes in the relative abundance of copiotrophic and oligotrophic taxa may have an impact in soil ecosystem functionality. However, communities with many taxa in common may also share many functional attributes, allowing to maintain at least some soil ecosystem services after forest conversion to croplands.

  6. Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Major, David C.; Yu, Winston H.; Alam, Mozaharul; Hussain, Sk. Ghulam; Khan, Abu Saleh; Hassan, Ahmadul; Al Hossain, Bhuiya Md. Tamim; Goldberg, Richard; Horton, Radley M.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

  7. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    Despite the great progresses of the last century in the agricultural sector and food supply, still about 820 million of people in developing countries are facing food scarcity and malnutrition. More than 180 million children are underweight. Except in Africa, 80 percent of the production gains came from increased yields in major cereal crops. The area cultivated has actually begun to decline in some regions. From now on, however, even Africa, which has always relied on cultivation of new land for production increases, will have to count on yield gains or pay high financial and ecological costs for expansion into areas not yet cultivated. The global scenario is changing fast. The technological, climatic and human-induced factors are creating long-lasting effects on the lives of people and on economic activities around the globe. In particular, climate change and/or variability is exacerbating rural increasing heat stress to natural habitats and human settlements, increasing climatic extremes, including drought and impacting food production. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress; as a result there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance. These climate change effects are particularly harmful in tropical regions of South America, Africa and South East Asia where food production is feeding a large part of world countries and poses serious risks to global food security in the future. Despite global projected climate change will affect a general decline of

  8. A change in landscape: Lessons learned from abandonment of ancient Wari agricultural terraces in Southern Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londoño, Ana C; Williams, Patrick Ryan; Hart, Megan L

    2017-11-01

    Ancient agricultural terrace practices have survived for millennia, sustaining populations through extreme climatic shifts and political regime changes. In arid regions with abrupt relief such as Southern Peru, agricultural terracing is undergoing a resurgence, as has seen revitalization of once abandoned terrace and hydraulic systems. Wari terraces at Cerro Baul provide clues to past cultural practices. They also document sustainable farming practices by using resilient land management techniques which can help combat desertification and degradation of arable lands. Three abandoned Wari terrace systems were mapped using microtopographic methods, the erosion patterns examined, the states of preservation compared, and then the design contrasted with modern terracing practices in the Moquegua Valley. In order to negate the harmful effects of desertification, rehabilitation and reconstruction of these terraces using ancient knowledge and techniques may be necessary. Rehabilitation must be conducted with consideration for preservation of cultural patrimony that may be encountered within the terrace treads or riser structures. With future climatic shifts impacting vulnerable dryland areas more than others, the ability to resiliently respond to these changes may be found in the lessons learned from ancient farming techniques such as the Wari. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  10. Climate change and its effect on agriculture, water resources and human health sectors in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Szwed

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensemble climate projections in the ENSEMBLES Project of the EU allowed the authors to quantify selected extreme-weather indices for Poland, of importance to climate impacts on systems and sectors. Among indices were: number of days in a year with high value of the heat index; with high maximum and minimum temperatures; length of vegetation period; and number of consecutive dry days. Agricultural, hydrological, and human health indices were applied to evaluate the changing risk of weather extremes in Poland in three sectors. To achieve this, model-based simulations were compared for two time horizons, a century apart, i.e., 1961–1990 and 2061–2090. Climate changes, and in particular increases in temperature and changes in rainfall, have strong impacts on agriculture via weather extremes – droughts and heat waves. The crop yield depends particularly on water availability in the plant development phase. To estimate the changes in present and future yield of two crops important for Polish agriculture i.e., potatoes and wheat, some simple empirical models were used. For these crops, decrease of yield is projected for most of the country, with national means of yield change being: –2.175 t/ha for potatoes and –0.539 t/ha for wheat. Already now, in most of Poland, evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation during summer, hence the water storage (in surface water bodies, soil and ground decreases. Summer precipitation deficit is projected to increase considerably in the future. The additional water supplies (above precipitation needed to use the agro-potential of the environment would increase by half. Analysis of water balance components (now and in the projected future can corroborate such conclusions. As regards climate and health, a composite index, proposed in this paper, is a product of the number of senior discomfort days and the number of seniors (aged 65+. The value of this index is projected to increase over 8-fold during

  11. Development and Climate Change in Uruguay. Focus on Coastal Zones, Agriculture and Forestry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agrawala, S.; Moehner, A.; Gagnon-Lebrun, F. [OECD Environment Directorate, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France); Van Aalst, M. [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Smith, J.; Hagenstad, M. [Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO (United States); Baethgen, W.E.; Martino, D.L. [Carbosur Consulting, Montevideo (Uruguay); Lorenzo, E. [Instituto de Mecanica de los Fluidos e Ingenieria Ambiental IMFIA, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo (Uruguay)

    2004-07-01

    This document is an output from the OECD Development and Climate Change project, an activity jointly overseen by the EPOC Working Party on Global and Structural Policies (WPGSP), and the DAC Network on Environment and Development Co-operation (ENVIRONET). The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme. This report presents the integrated case study for Tanzania carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. This report presents the integrated case study for Uruguay carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Uruguay are assessed and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for adaptation in coastal zones as well as for mainstreaming carbonsequestration within the agriculture and forestry sectors.

  12. Automatic change detection in RapidEye data using the combined MAD and kernel MAF methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hecheltjen, Antje; Thonfeld, Frank

    2010-01-01

    The IR-MAD components show changes for a large part of the entire subset. Especially phenological changes in the agricultural fields surrounding the open pit are predominant. As opposed to this, kMAF components focus more on changes in the open-cast mine (and changes due to the two clouds...... and their shadows, not visible in the zoom). Ground data were available from bucket-wheel excavators on the extraction side (to the northwest in the open pit) in terms of elevation data for both dates. No ground data were available for changes due to backfill (southeastern part of the open pit) or changes due...... to mining machines other than the bucket-wheels....

  13. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  14. Climate change in Lebanon: Higher-order regional impacts from agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo A. Haddad

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the susceptibility of agricultural outputs to future climate change in Lebanon, and the extent to which it propagates to the economic system as a whole. We use a methodological framework in which physical and economic models are integrated for assessing the higher-order economic impacts of projected climate changes. By using this integrated modeling approach, we are able to quantify the broader economic impacts in the country by considering not only the temporal dimension but also the regional disaggregation of the results. Our estimates suggest that there are high potential costs and risks associated with a burden to the poorer and more vulnerable regions of the country.

  15. Synergies between mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2010-01-01

    is two-fold, both to reduce emissions and to adapt to a changing and more variable climate. The primary aim of the mitigation options is to reduce emissions of methane or nitrous oxide or to increase soil carbon storage. All the mitigation options, therefore, affect the carbon and/or nitrogen cycle...... of the agroecosystem in some way. This often not only affects the GHG emissions but also the soil properties and nutrient cycling. Adaptation to increased variability of temperature and rainfall involves increasing the resilience of the production systems. This may be done by improving soil water holding capacities...... and provide shelter, (6) land use change involving abandonment or extensification of existing agricultural land, or avoidance of the cultivation of new land. These adaptation measures will in general, if properly applied, reduce GHG emissions, by improving nitrogen use efficiencies and improving soil carbon...

  16. Water-food-energy nexus with changing agricultural scenarios in India during recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barik, Beas; Ghosh, Subimal; Saheer Sahana, A.; Pathak, Amey; Sekhar, Muddu

    2017-06-01

    Meeting the growing water and food demands in a densely populated country like India is a major challenge. It requires an extensive investigation into the changing patterns of the checks and balances behind the maintenance of food security at the expense of depleting groundwater, along with high energy consumption. Here we present a comprehensive set of analyses which assess the present status of the water-food-energy nexus in India, along with its changing pattern, in the last few decades. We find that with the growth of population and consequent increase in the food demands, the food production has also increased, and this has been made possible with the intensification of irrigation. However, during the recent decade (after 1996), the increase in food production has not been sufficient to meet its growing demands, precipitating a decline in the per-capita food availability. We also find a statistically significant declining trend of groundwater storage in India during the last decade, as derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite datasets. Regional studies reveal contrasting trends between northern and western-central India. North-western India and the middle Ganga basin show a decrease in the groundwater storage as opposed to an increasing storage over western-central India. Comparison with well data reveals that the highest consistency of GRACE-derived storage data with available well measurements is in the middle Ganga basin. After analysing the data for the last 2 decades, we further showcase that, after a drought, the groundwater storage drops but is unable to recover to its original condition even after good monsoon years. The groundwater storage reveals a very strong negative correlation with the electricity consumption for agricultural usage, which may also be considered as a proxy for groundwater pumped for irrigation in a region. The electricity usage for agricultural purposes has an increasing trend and, interestingly

  17. Water–food–energy nexus with changing agricultural scenarios in India during recent decades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Barik

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Meeting the growing water and food demands in a densely populated country like India is a major challenge. It requires an extensive investigation into the changing patterns of the checks and balances behind the maintenance of food security at the expense of depleting groundwater, along with high energy consumption. Here we present a comprehensive set of analyses which assess the present status of the water–food–energy nexus in India, along with its changing pattern, in the last few decades. We find that with the growth of population and consequent increase in the food demands, the food production has also increased, and this has been made possible with the intensification of irrigation. However, during the recent decade (after 1996, the increase in food production has not been sufficient to meet its growing demands, precipitating a decline in the per-capita food availability. We also find a statistically significant declining trend of groundwater storage in India during the last decade, as derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE satellite datasets. Regional studies reveal contrasting trends between northern and western–central India. North-western India and the middle Ganga basin show a decrease in the groundwater storage as opposed to an increasing storage over western–central India. Comparison with well data reveals that the highest consistency of GRACE-derived storage data with available well measurements is in the middle Ganga basin. After analysing the data for the last 2 decades, we further showcase that, after a drought, the groundwater storage drops but is unable to recover to its original condition even after good monsoon years. The groundwater storage reveals a very strong negative correlation with the electricity consumption for agricultural usage, which may also be considered as a proxy for groundwater pumped for irrigation in a region. The electricity usage for agricultural purposes has an increasing

  18. Monitoring changes in seismic velocity related to an ongoing rapid inflation event at Okmok volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa; Haney, Matt; De Angelis, Silvio; Thurber, Clifford; Freymueller, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Okmok is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian Arc. In an effort to improve our ability to detect precursory activity leading to eruption at Okmok, we monitor a recent, and possibly ongoing, GPS-inferred rapid inflation event at the volcano using ambient noise interferometry (ANI). Applying this method, we identify changes in seismic velocity outside of Okmok’s caldera, which are related to the hydrologic cycle. Within the caldera, we observe decreases in seismic velocity that are associated with the GPS-inferred rapid inflation event. We also determine temporal changes in waveform decorrelation and show a continual increase in decorrelation rate over the time associated with the rapid inflation event. Themagnitude of relative velocity decreases and decorrelation rate increases are comparable to previous studies at Piton de la Fournaise that associate such changes with increased production of volatiles and/ormagmatic intrusion within the magma reservoir and associated opening of fractures and/or fissures. Notably, the largest decrease in relative velocity occurs along the intrastation path passing nearest to the center of the caldera. This observation, along with equal amplitude relative velocity decreases revealed via analysis of intracaldera autocorrelations, suggests that the inflation sourcemay be located approximately within the center of the caldera and represent recharge of shallow magma storage in this location. Importantly, there is a relative absence of seismicity associated with this and previous rapid inflation events at Okmok. Thus, these ANI results are the first seismic evidence of such rapid inflation at the volcano.

  19. Temporal Beta Diversity of Bird Assemblages in Agricultural Landscapes: Land Cover Change vs. Stochastic Processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Baselga

    Full Text Available Temporal variation in the composition of species assemblages could be the result of deterministic processes driven by environmental change and/or stochastic processes of colonization and local extinction. Here, we analyzed the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes on bird assemblages in an agricultural landscape of southwestern France. We first assessed the impact of land cover change that occurred between 1982 and 2007 on (i the species composition (presence/absence of bird assemblages and (ii the spatial pattern of taxonomic beta diversity. We also compared the observed temporal change of bird assemblages with a null model accounting for the effect of stochastic dynamics on temporal beta diversity. Temporal assemblage dissimilarity was partitioned into two separate components, accounting for the replacement of species (i.e. turnover and for the nested species losses (or gains from one time to the other (i.e. nestedness-resultant dissimilarity, respectively. Neither the turnover nor the nestedness-resultant components of temporal variation were accurately explained by any of the measured variables accounting for land cover change (r(2<0.06 in all cases. Additionally, the amount of spatial assemblage heterogeneity in the region did not significantly change between 1982 and 2007, and site-specific observed temporal dissimilarities were larger than null expectations in only 1% of sites for temporal turnover and 13% of sites for nestedness-resultant dissimilarity. Taken together, our results suggest that land cover change in this agricultural landscape had little impact on temporal beta diversity of bird assemblages. Although other unmeasured deterministic process could be driving the observed patterns, it is also possible that the observed changes in presence/absence species composition of local bird assemblages might be the consequence of stochastic processes in which species populations appeared and disappeared from specific

  20. Water governance, agricultural development and community-level resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, T.; Cox, M.; McCord, P.; Caylor, K. K.; Washington-Ottombre, C.; Soderberg, K.; Sadri, S.

    2012-12-01

    Climate and other physical drivers of environmental systems are modifying the global availability of water for irrigation. At the same time population growth is placing an increased demand on water resources as local municipalities promote agricultural production as a mechanism to support human welfare and development. Substantial research focuses on agricultural decision-making and practices to assess current and future demand for water based on crop types and irrigation practices. Equally important is the role of environmental governance as expressed through institutions which, in case the case of water systems, are the rules implemented to allocate water resources across different user groups. In water-limited environments, institutions play a critical role in addressing the challenges posed by water demand exceeding water supply. A pressing global concern is whether institutions that evolved over the last several decades are well suited to meet potential future water demands in the context of climate change and increasing rates of water abstraction. A related question is whether social and cultural conditions enable adaptive governance that can modify institutions to different water availability scenarios. In order to assess cross-scale resilience of households and communities reliant on irrigated agriculture to climate change, methodological tools are needed to characterize these issues of "institutional fit" and institutional change. We have developed a framework for characterizing institutional dynamics as a platform for the cross-site analysis of human-water governance. To demonstrate the utility of this framework we present a coding process applying this framework to irrigation schemes in Kenya. We present findings from research on rural agriculturalists in Kenya investigating irrigation practices and institutions designed to allocate water across communities. Initial indications are that current institutional regimes are suitable for current hydrological

  1. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  2. Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  3. SUSTAINABLE DIVERSIFIED AGRICULTURE AND LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE HIMALAYA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Bajracharya

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The soil and land resources play a vital role in sustaining the local livelihoods of rural communities in the Himalaya. Most of the arable land has already been brought under cultivation, hence the ever-increasing demand for food and fiber has left farmers with no choice but to intensify agriculture. However, producing more crops and greater quantities of food, fiber and other materials on the same parcel of land can to soil fertility and productivity decline with overall degradation of land quality. Therefore, ways and means to intensify agriculture to enhance productivity without degrading the soil and land resource base have become imperative. Agro-forestry, agro-slivi-pastoral systems, and the adoption of a variety of crop, soil and water management and conservation practices offer potential to deliver multiple benefits without sacrificing the very resource upon which the human population depends. Presented herein are findings on approaches to sustainable intensification of agriculture and land management related to soil OM management and C sequestration for multiple benefits, and, agro-forestry as a crop diversification strategy with both livelihood, and climate change adaptation/mitigation benefits. The results indicate that sustainable soil management practices could lead to significant SOC accumulations (4-8 t/ha over 6 yrs. SOC and soil C stocks tend to increase with elevation due to cooler climate and slow decomposition rates. Carbon stocks for the 3 LU types was in the order CF>AF/LH>AG, suggesting that diversified cropping practices including agro-forestry have good potential sequester C while providing livelihood opportunities and climate adaptive capacity for local farming communities. Biochar amendment increased growth of both coffee plants and radish with mixed grass/weed biochar being most effective. Biochar application also significantly decreased emission of GHGs, especially N2O.

  4. Evaluation of Agricultural Crops Water Footprint with Application of Climate Change in Urmia Lake basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    majid montaseri

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The water footprint index as a complete indicator represents the actual used water in agriculture based on the climate condition, the amount of crop production, the people consumption pattern, the agriculture practices and water efficiency in any region. The water footprint in agricultural products is divided to three components, including green, blue and gray water footprint. Green water footprint is rainwater stored in soil profile and on vegetation. Blue water refers to water in rivers, lakes and aquifers which is used for irrigation purposes. Gray water footprint refers to define as the volume of contaminated water. The water footprint in arid and semiarid regions with high water requirement for plants and limited fresh water resources has considerable importance and key role in the planning and utilization of limited water resources in these regions. On the other hand, increasing the temperature and decreasing the rainfall due to climate change, are two agents which affect arid and semiarid regions. Therefore, in this research the water footprint of agriculturalcrop production in Urmia Lake basin, with application of climate change for planning, stable operating and crop pattern optimizing, was evaluated to reduce agricultural water consumption and help supplying water rights of Urmia Lake. Materials and Methods:Urmia Lake basin, as one of the main sextet basins in Iran, is located in the North West of Iran and includes large sections of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Kurdistan areas. Thirteen major rivers are responsible to drain surface streams in Urmia Lake basin and these rivers after supplying agriculture and drinking water and residential areas in the flow path, are evacuated to the Lake. Today because of non-observance of sustainable development concept, increasing water use in different parts and climate change phenomena in Urmia Lake basin the hydrologic balance was perturbed, and Urmia Lake has been lost 90% of

  5. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

  6. Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

  7. Computed tomographic demonstration of rapid changes in fatty infiltration of the liver

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashist, B. (Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center, New York); Hecht, H.L.; Harely, W.D.

    1982-03-01

    Two alcoholic patients in whom computed tomography (CT) demonstrated reversal of fatty infiltration of the liver are described. The rapid reversibility of fatty infiltration can be useful in monitoring alcoholics with fatty livers. Focal fatty infiltration can mimic focal hepatic lesions and repeat scans can be utilized to assess changes in CT attenuation values when this condition is suspected.

  8. Rapidly changing mortality profiles in South Africa in its nine provinces

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    number from HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis combined by 2012.[1]. Cardiovascular ... diabetes and renal disease have increased.[1,7] Furthermore ... Creative Commons licence CC-BY-NC 4.0. Rapidly changing mortality profiles in South Africa in its nine provinces. Non-communicable disease. HIV/AIDS and TB. Other type 1.

  9. Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer. Hirsch

    2010-01-01

    Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

  10. Modeling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payo, Andrés.; Lázár, Attila N.; Clarke, Derek; Nicholls, Robert J.; Bricheno, Lucy; Mashfiqus, Salehin; Haque, Anisul

    2017-05-01

    Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low-lying delta regions, which support many millions of farmers around the world. At present, there are no numerical models able to resolve soil salinity at regional scale and at daily time steps. In this research, we develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the agriculture areas of coastal Bangladesh (˜20,000 km2). This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the year 2050. Projected soil salinity changes are significantly smaller than other reported projections. The results suggest that inter-season weather variability is a key driver of salinization of agriculture soils at coastal Bangladesh.

  11. Topographic changes detection through Structure-from-Motion in agricultural lands affected by erosion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Massimo; Pradetto Sordo, Nicoletta; Burguet, Maria; Di Prima, Simone; Terol Esparza, Enric; Tarolli, Paolo; Cerdà, Artemi

    2016-04-01

    Throughout the world, soil erosion by water is a serious problem, especially in semi-arid and semi-humid areas (Cerdà et al., 2009; Cerdan et al., 2010; García-Ruiz, 2010). Although soil erosion by water consists of physical processes that vary significantly in severity and frequency according to when and where they occur, they are also strongly influenced by anthropic factors such as land-use changes on large scales and unsustainable farming practices (Boardman et al., 1990; Cerdà 1994; Montgomery, 2007). Tillage operations, combined with weather conditions, are recognized to primarily influence soil erosion rates. If, on one hand, tillage operations cause uniform changes based on the tool used, on the other, weather conditions, such as rainfalls, produce more random changes, less easily traceable (Snapir et al., 2014). Within this context, remote-sensing technologies can facilitate the detection and quantification of these topographic changes. In particular, a real opportunity and challenge is offered by the low-cost and flexible photogrammetric technique, called 'Structure-from-Motion' (SfM), combined with the use of smartphones (Micheletti et al., 2014; Prosdocimi et al., 2015). This represents a significant advance compared with more expensive technologies and applications (e.g. Terrestrial Laser Scanner - TLS) (Tarolli, 2014). This work wants to test the Structure from Motion to obtain high-resolution topography for the detection of topographic changes in agricultural lands affected by erosion processes. Two case studies were selected: i) a tilled plot characterized by bare soil and affected by rill erosion located in the hilly countryside of Marche region (central Italy), and ii) a Mediterranean vineyard located within the province of Valencia (south eastern Spain) where rainfall simulation experiments were carried out. Extensive photosets were obtained by using one standalone reflex digital camera and one smartphone built-in digital camera. Digital

  12. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Water Resources and Agricultural Diversity of the Upper Rio Grande Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhi Rad, M.; Hurd, B. H.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change can alter the balance of the water resources systems. It can both change the amount and the timing of the streamflow available in a basin and the amount of water consumed at the end point due to higher temperatures. These changes in the supply and demand sides can result in a different allocation of water and different price for water in basin scale based on economic principles. In a previous study Hurd and Coonrod (2012) modeled the impacts of climate change on the water related economic activities of the Rio Grande. In their study they assumed an aggregated benefit function for the agricultural sector. In another study on the Rio Grande Brinegar and Ward (2009) modeled the agricultural diversity of the Rio Grande within the framework of a hydro-economic model. This study builds upon and extends the previous studies by developing a model that can more carefully assess the role of adaptation in agriculture. Specially, the current study adds quadratic production functions for each crop. These production functions add a major benefit to the modeling of the hydro-economic system, namely that of adding diversity and expanded resolution to the agricultural sector. Using this production function the model includes both land and water as independent variables in the agricultural sector and, therefore this extension of the model has more flexibility to represent adaptive responses to climatic changes by including the capacity to change the crop mix and acreages as well as the water applied i.e. the capacity to deficit irrigate. The results of this study show that the agricultural sector can lose nearly a third of its water and more than 30% of its net economic benefits as a result of possible climate changes. It also shows as the climate become drier and population grows then economic forces will encourage agriculture to move towards more beneficial crops and reduce total acreage and in some cases applied water.

  13. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  14. Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

    2012-02-01

    The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

  15. Identification of Geometrical Structural Changes in Agriculture by Optical and Radar Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surek, Gyorgy; Nador, Gizella; Akos Gera, David; Hubik, Iren; Kulesar Aniko, Rotterne; Torok, Cecilia

    2013-08-01

    The objective of the project was to monitor the temporal behaviour of geometrical structural change of cropland affected by four different damages: weed infection, Western Corn Rootworm (WCR), storm damage and drought by optical and radar time series data. Based on our preliminary results it is established that ragweed infection in sunflower can be well identified by evaluation of radar (acquired in mid-June) and optical (mid-August) satellite images. Effect of drought in sunflower is well recognizable by spectral indexes from optical, as well as "I"-component of Shannon entropy (SEI) derived from radar satellite images. Detecting damage caused by WCR and storm in maize field is the most efficient by evaluation of radar and optical satellite images acquired in late-July. Components of Shannon entropy have significant role in identification. This project demonstrates the potential of integrated usage of polarimetric radar and optical satellite images for mapping several types of damages in agriculture.

  16. Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio

  17. Farmers´ perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette

    2009-01-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver...... and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context...... in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain...

  18. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Delgado Assad

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

  19. [Dynamic changes of land desertification landscape pattern in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Ke-Li; Chang, Qing-Rui

    2007-09-01

    By using the 1986, 1993 and 2003 Landsat TM images and with the help of GIS, the dynamic changes of land desertification landscape pattern in agriculture and pasturage interlaced zone of northern Shaanxi in 1986-2003 were analyzed. The results showed that in the past 17 years, the desertification area in the zone decreased by 206,655.2 hm2, with the patches in landscape structure reduced and fragmentation abated. Fortunately, the desertification degree decreased obviously, and moderate and light desertification took the leading position. From 1986 to 2003, the spatial centroid of desertification landscape patches expanded southwestward and northeastward, giving serious threat to the ecological safety of the southeast and northeast loess gully and hilly areas.

  20. The Changing Face of Agricultural Education in Nigeria: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egun, A. C.

    2010-01-01

    Self sufficiency in food and raw material production for agro-based industries has been the thrust of Nigerian agricultural policy. Realizing the goals of the policy has been bedevilled with series of plethora problems. This paper took a look at agricultural reforms, examined the problems of agricultural practices and suggests education of the…

  1. Agricultural land use changes in Amazonia since the mid-1990s: preliminary results of merging agricultural census data with satellite reflectances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardille, J. A.

    2001-12-01

    the relation between reflectance characteristics and agricultural census values across administrative units, and optimizes the relation between them to produce the classification. Where this relationship is strong, we also present an update of land use patterns for the past year to identify likely land use changes in the region.

  2. The changing roles of science in managing Australian droughts: An agricultural perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Howden

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available As the driest inhabited continent with a highly variable climate, Australia has had a long and evolving history of drought management in agriculture. This paper analyses the changing roles of science in the management of climate risk and uncertainty and how this may continue into the future. Initially science had a role in documenting the underlying nature of Australia׳s climate, and later broadening the understanding around the drivers of variability so as to provide useful climate forecasts and developing metrics to measure and compare the severity of extreme climatic events. Over time this has shifted to providing effective integrating approaches to enhance social cohesion, rural economies, environmental protection, health, and food security under drought conditions. Institutional responses initially framed drought as a natural disaster, for which State and Federal funding for farmers was distributed; however, the need for farmers to proactively manage climate risk and build adaptive capacity has resulted in climate variability being seen as a risk to be managed as part of normal practise. The formulation of a national drought policy in 1992 placed responsibility for adaptation and education in the hands of the farmers, where science played various roles, including the provision of training for strategic business planning and decision-making, methods of managing uncertainty as well as via delivery of climate data and methods to integrate this into meaningful information that is embedded into the social and institutional processes through which decisions are made. This policy continues to evolve and science inputs will evolve with this. In particular, we anticipate that ongoing and projected climate changes will impact on drought frequency and severity and will require science integrated with stakeholder input into developing climate adaptation practices and technologies and effective adoption paths particularly to deal with climate extremes

  3. Global temperature change potential of nitrogen use in agriculture: A 50-year assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagodiya, R. K.; Pathak, H.; Kumar, A.; Bhatia, A.; Jain, N.

    2017-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) use in agriculture substantially alters global N cycle with the short- and long-term effects on global warming and climate change. It increases emission of nitrous oxide, which contributes 6.2%, while carbon dioxide and methane contribute 76% and 16%, respectively of the global warming. However, N causes cooling due to emission of NOx, which alters concentrations of tropospheric ozone and methane. NOx and NH3 also form aerosols with considerable cooling effects. We studied global temperature change potential (GTP) of N use in agriculture. The GTP due to N2O was 396.67 and 1168.32 Tg CO2e on a 20-year (GTP20) and 439.94 and 1295.78 Tg CO2e on 100-year scale (GTP100) during years 1961 and 2010, respectively. Cooling effects due to N use were 92.14 and 271.39 Tg CO2e (GTP20) and 15.21 and 44.80 Tg CO2e (GTP100) during 1961 and 2010, respectively. Net GTP20 was 369.44 and 1088.15 Tg CO2e and net GTP100 was 429.17 and 1264.06 Tg CO2e during 1961 and 2010, respectively. Thus net GTP20 is lower by 6.9% and GTP100 by 2.4% compared to the GTP considering N2O emission alone. The study shows that both warming and cooling effects should be considered to estimate the GTP of N use. PMID:28322322

  4. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  5. The rapid climate change-caused dichotomy on subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan: Reduction in habitat diversity and increase in species diversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Ren

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture, logging, planting of economic plants, mining activities and changing environment. The aims of the study are to investigate climate change-induced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation. Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions, alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios. Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios, changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity. This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan, highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.

  6. Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This

  7. Glacier Runoff and Human Vulnerability to Climate Change: The Case of Export Agriculture in Peru (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, M.

    2013-12-01

    There is growing concern about the effects of climate change and ensuing glacier shrinkage on water supplies for mountain communities worldwide. The issue is only becoming more complex as researchers seek to quantify glacier contributions to streamflow and to pinpoint when and how much glacier runoff will likely change as a result of future climate change and glacier variation. Additionally, some researchers are beginning to recognize the importance of understanding the human dimensions of glacier retreat to identify which social groups (stakeholders) use glacier runoff and how much they use, as well as what socio-environmental forces affect both water supplies and water use. This presentation examines these societal aspects of glacier runoff to analyze human vulnerability to hydrological changes in Peru's Santa River watershed below the most glaciated tropical mountain range in the world, the Cordillera Blanca. Specifically, it focuses on the billion-dollar export-oriented agricultural industry within the Chavimochic irrigation project, which uses Santa River water to irrigate approximately 80,000 hectares in the coastal desert region. Since the 1980s, Santa River water has allowed Chavimochic to sustain a major export economy, provide jobs in the agro-industry and related services, stimulate human migration, enhance or alter livelihoods, generate hydroelectricity, supply drinking water, and shape urban growth and land use practices. All of these variables are dependent on glacier meltwater from the Cordillera Blanca, especially during the dry season when glaciers provide most of the Santa River's water. In short, hundreds of thousands of people have come to depend on glacier runoff, thus revealing their high level of vulnerability to hydrological fluctuations in a glacier-fed watershed. What's more, people worldwide rely on the asparagus, avocados, and artichokes grown with glacier runoff. Consequently, the export-oriented agriculture, through the "virtual water

  8. Catchments Under Change: Assessing Impacts and Feedbacks from New Biomass Crops in the Agricultural Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaeger, Mary; Housh, Mashor; Ng, Tze Ling; Cai, Ximing; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2013-04-01

    In order to meet the challenges of future change, it is essential to understand the environmental response to current conditions and historical changes. The central Midwestern US is an example of anthropogenic change and environmental feedbacks, having been transformed from a natural grassland system to an artificially-drained agricultural system. Environmental feedbacks from reduced soil residence times coupled with increasing crop fertilization have manifested as a hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. In an effort to address these feedbacks while meeting new crop demands, large-scale planting of high-yielding perennial biomass crops has been proposed. This could be detrimental to both human and environmental streamflow users because these plants require more water than do current crops. The lowest natural flows in this shallow groundwater-dependent region coincide with the peak of the growing season, thus compounding the problem. Therefore, for large-scale biomass crop production to be sustainable, these tradeoffs between water quality and water quantity must be fully understood. To better understand the catchment response to current conditions, we have analyzed streamflow data in a central Illinois agricultural watershed. To deal with future changes, we have developed an integrated systems model which provides, among other outputs, the land usage that maximizes the benefit to the human system. This land use is then implemented in a separate hydrologic model to determine the impact to the environmental system. Interactively running the two models, taking into account the catchment response to human actions as well as possible anthropogenic responses to the environment, allows us to examine the feedbacks between the two systems. This lets us plot the trajectory of the state of the system, which we hypothesize will show emergent internal properties of the coupled system. Initial tests of this modeling framework show promise that this may indeed be the case. External

  9. Climate change information supporting adaptation in forestry and agriculture - results and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gálos, Borbála; Czimber, Kornél; Gribovszki, Zoltán; Bidló, András; Csáki, Péter; Kalicz, Péter; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela; Mátyás, Csaba

    2015-04-01

    Recurrent droughts of the last decades have led to severe impacts in forestry and agriculture in the sensitive and vulnerable low-elevation regions of Southeast Europe. Observed impacts are very likely to occur with increasing probability under projected climate conditions throughout the 21st century. In order to suggest options for adaptation and mitigation, a GIS-based Decision Support System is under development in the frame of the joint EU-national research project "Agroclimate". Impact assessments and adaptation support services are based on the simulation results of 12 regional climate models (www.ensembles-eu.org) using the A1B emission scenario until 2100. The development of the Decision Support System requires the balancing of available climatic information and required data for research and economically relevant projection needs of the end users. Here, concrete examples of the development process will be shown for the stepwise analysis and comparison of the followings: 1. Provided climate services: • projected tendencies of temperature and precipitation means and extremes until the end of the 21st century, spread of the simulation results. 2. Required information for climate impact research: • types and characteristics of climate input data, • methods and functions for deriving possible climate change impacts in forestry and agriculture (e.g. on species distribution, growth, production, yield, soil water retention, ground water table, runoff, erosion, evapotranspiration and other ecosystem services and soil properties). 3. Required climate information from the end users' side for developing adaption strategies in the affected sectors: • types of climate indicators, • possible range of the expected impacts (in magnitude and probability). 4. Gaps between climate services and the needs of impact researchers and end users (e.g. spatial and temporal scales, interpretation techniques). Experiences of supporting climate change adaptation in forestry

  10. Temporal Beta Diversity of Bird Assemblages in Agricultural Landscapes: Land Cover Change vs. Stochastic Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baselga, Andrés; Bonthoux, Sébastien; Balent, Gérard

    2015-01-01

    Temporal variation in the composition of species assemblages could be the result of deterministic processes driven by environmental change and/or stochastic processes of colonization and local extinction. Here, we analyzed the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes on bird assemblages in an agricultural landscape of southwestern France. We first assessed the impact of land cover change that occurred between 1982 and 2007 on (i) the species composition (presence/absence) of bird assemblages and (ii) the spatial pattern of taxonomic beta diversity. We also compared the observed temporal change of bird assemblages with a null model accounting for the effect of stochastic dynamics on temporal beta diversity. Temporal assemblage dissimilarity was partitioned into two separate components, accounting for the replacement of species (i.e. turnover) and for the nested species losses (or gains) from one time to the other (i.e. nestedness-resultant dissimilarity), respectively. Neither the turnover nor the nestedness-resultant components of temporal variation were accurately explained by any of the measured variables accounting for land cover change (r(2)process could be driving the observed patterns, it is also possible that the observed changes in presence/absence species composition of local bird assemblages might be the consequence of stochastic processes in which species populations appeared and disappeared from specific localities in a random-like way. Our results might be case-specific, but if stochastic dynamics are generally dominant, the ability of correlative and mechanistic models to predict land cover change effects on species composition would be compromised.

  11. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030, and the potential from rapid, inclusive and climate-informed development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2016-12-01

    There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is

  12. Frightening music triggers rapid changes in brain monoamine receptors: a pilot PET study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Chen, Qiaozhen; Du, Fenglei; Hu, Yanni; Chao, Fangfang; Tian, Mei; Zhang, Hong

    2012-10-01

    Frightening music can rapidly arouse emotions in listeners that mimic those from actual life-threatening experiences. However, studies of the underlying mechanism for perceiving danger created by music are limited. We investigated monoamine receptor changes induced by frightening music using (11)C-N-methyl-spiperone ((11)C-NMSP) PET. Ten healthy male volunteers were included, and their psychophysiologic changes were evaluated. Compared with the baseline condition, listening to frightening music caused a significant decrease in (11)C-NMSP in the right and left caudate nuclei, right limbic region, and right paralimbic region; a particularly significant decrease in the right anterior cingulate cortex; but an increase in the right frontal occipital and left temporal lobes of the cerebral cortex. Transient fright triggers rapid changes in monoamine receptors, which decrease in the limbic and paralimbic regions but increase in the cerebral cortex.

  13. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef; Alexandrov, Vesselin; Toulios, Leonidas; Calanca, Pierluigi; Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2008-12-01

    Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation.

  14. Rapidly assessing changes in bone mineral balance using natural stable calcium isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Jennifer L. L.; Skulan, Joseph L.; Gordon, Gwyneth W.; Romaniello, Stephen J.; Smith, Scott M.; Anbar, Ariel D.

    2012-06-01

    The ability to rapidly detect changes in bone mineral balance (BMB) would be of great value in the early diagnosis and evaluation of therapies for metabolic bone diseases such as osteoporosis and some cancers. However, measurements of BMB are hampered by difficulties with using biochemical markers to quantify the relative rates of bone resorption and formation and the need to wait months to years for altered BMB to produce changes in bone mineral density large enough to resolve by X-ray densitometry. We show here that, in humans, the natural abundances of Ca isotopes in urine change rapidly in response to changes in BMB. In a bed rest experiment, use of high-precision isotope ratio MS allowed the onset of bone loss to be detected in Ca isotope data after about 1 wk, long before bone mineral density has changed enough to be detectable with densitometry. The physiological basis of the relationship between Ca isotopes and BMB is sufficiently understood to allow quantitative translation of changes in Ca isotope abundances to changes in bone mineral density using a simple model. The rate of change of bone mineral density inferred from Ca isotopes is consistent with the rate observed by densitometry in long-term bed rest studies. Ca isotopic analysis provides a powerful way to monitor bone loss, potentially making it possible to diagnose metabolic bone disease and track the impact of treatments more effectively than is currently possible.

  15. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  16. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.

    2015-01-01

    processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L; S T = S L − E LUC). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly...... the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present......It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (S T) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying...

  17. BOREAL FOREST CARBON STOCKS AND WOOD SUPPLY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND SPECIES AVAILABILITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The paper assesses the role in boreal forest growth played by environment. It examines past changes in climate coupled with glaciation, and future changes in climate coupled with agricultural land use and tree species availability. The objective was to define and evaluate potenti...

  18. The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter Backlund; Anthony Janetos; David Schimel

    2008-01-01

    This report provides an assessment of the effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. It is one of a series of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAP) that are being produced under the auspices of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP).

  19. Climate change and agricultural risk management: the role of the family-farm characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaranta, G.; Salvia, R.

    2009-04-01

    During recent years, water-related anomalies (drought, water scarcity, flood) have become a common occurrence in most areas and especially in the arid and semiarid regions of Mediterranean areas. There are evidences of increasing inter-annual variability, as increasing deviation from the long-term mean. This could be the main reason for the increasing incidence of drought, rather than any decline in long-term rainfall, also if a decrease of total amount of water is expected by the IPCC scenarios. Another reason for increasing drought and water scarcity conditions is growing demand for water needed by different productive sectors. These anomalies greatly increase the uncertainties of the agricultural sector affecting performance and management and leading to substantial augment in agricultural risk and destabilization of farm incomes. Agricultural adaptation to drought and climate change at the farm level as well as changes in activity level strongly depend on the technological potential (different varieties of crops, irrigation technologies); soil, water, and biological response; and the capability of farmers to detect changes and undertake any necessary actions as result of perception of the problem and capacity/willingness to react. Farm characteristics (size, technological level and other characteristics) and the social economic features of the family running those farms (number of components, age, education level, etc) act as important variables influencing, at farm level, the capacity and rate of adaptation/mitigation options implementation. The ability or inability to avoid/react from a risk could be interpreted as a social resilience of an area, deriving mainly from its socio-demographic features. The shift from a paradigm mainly focuses upon the physical agents in the natural or human-modified environment, which cause a threat to society, to a new approach where the social, economical and political conditions are overcoming and gaining importance in the

  20. Rapid Hip Osteoarthritis Development in a Patient with Anterior Acetabular Cyst with Sagittal Alignment Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasuhiro Homma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly destructive coxarthrosis (RDC is rare and develops unusual clinical course. Recent studies suggest multiple possible mechanisms of the development of RDC. However the exact mechanism of RDC is still not clear. The difficulty of the study on RDC is attributed to its rareness and the fact that the data before the onset of RDC is normally unavailable. In this report, we presented the patient having the radiographic data before the onset who had rapid osteoarthritis (OA development after contralateral THA, which meets the current criteria of RDC. We thought that the increased posterior tilt of the pelvis after THA reinforced the stress concentration at pre-existed anterior acetabular cyst, thereby the destruction of the cyst was occurred. As a result the rapid OA was developed. We think that there is the case of rapid osteoarthritis developing due to alternating load concentration by posterior pelvic tilt on preexisting anterior acetabular cyst such as our patient among the cases diagnosed as RDC without any identifiable etiology. The recognition of sagittal alignment changes and anterior acetabular cyst may play important role in prediction and prevention of the rapid hip osteoarthritis development similar to RDC.

  1. Plan climate 2003 Group Agriculture - Forest - By-products, 12 propositions to fight against the climatic change in the agriculture sector; Plan climat 2003 Groupe Agriculture - Foret - Produits derives, 12 propositions pour lutter contre le changement climatique dans le secteur de l'agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Couturier, Ch.; Bochu, J.L.; Pointereau, Ph.; Doublet, S.

    2003-07-01

    These propositions have been elaborated by the Salengro association in the framework of the Plan Climate 2003, at the ADEME request. These measures aims to fight against the climatic change in the agriculture domain: tractors fuels, energy mastery, renewable energies in fossil fuels substitution, wood buildings, hedges and linear afforestation, nitrogen balance equilibrium, agriculture policy. (A.L.B.)

  2. Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associated with rapid regional climate change along the western Antarctic Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Hugo, Martin; Doney, Scott C; Ducklow, Hugh W; Fraser, William; Martinson, Douglas; Stammerjohn, Sharon E; Schofield, Oscar

    2009-03-13

    The climate of the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is undergoing a transition from a cold-dry polar-type climate to a warm-humid sub-Antarctic-type climate. Using three decades of satellite and field data, we document that ocean biological productivity, inferred from chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), has significantly changed along the WAP shelf. Summertime surface Chl a (summer integrated Chl a approximately 63% of annually integrated Chl a) declined by 12% along the WAP over the past 30 years, with the largest decreases equatorward of 63 degrees S and with substantial increases in Chl a occurring farther south. The latitudinal variation in Chl a trends reflects shifting patterns of ice cover, cloud formation, and windiness affecting water-column mixing. Regional changes in phytoplankton coincide with observed changes in krill (Euphausia superba) and penguin populations.

  3. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Müller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay; Neumann, Kathleen; Piontek, Franziska; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin; Stehfest, Elke; Yang, Hong; Jones, James W.

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies. PMID:24344314

  5. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  6. Modeling climate change impact on surface runoff, erosion and sediment yield in agriculturally used catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Ulrike; Gerlinger, Kai; Zehe, Erwin

    2010-05-01

    Surface runoff and soil erosion as well as many of the factors controlling both will be directly or indirectly affected by climate change impact. Increasing precipitation amounts and intensities cause non linear responses of runoff and soil loss. The variation of local precipitation and temperature regimes implicate shifts in vegetation cover, soil conditions, land use and management which will affect runoff, erosion and the translocation of sediments and environmental pollutants to surface waters. For example the adaptation of crop rotation and planting dates due to changes within temperature regimes will cause shifts in vegetation cover which might affect erosion due to decreasing cover in periods of high storm risk. In agriculturally used catchments of Southern Germany, the susceptibility of soils to erosion is highest during spring and summer because of both, an increasing risk for thunderstorms in this season and a sparse soil cover due to the growth period of crops. Climate change scenarios for Southern Germany assume higher average precipitation rates during the winter half year, whereas precipitation rates in summer are slightly decreasing. Longer lasting rainfall events in winter will increase runoff but will have no significant impact on sediment yields, since the rainfall intensities are quite low. Despite lower rainfall rates in the summer half year it is expected that the rainfall intensity of extreme events will increase, including a higher risk for erosion. To analyse how surface runoff response and sediment yields will be affected by climate change impact the process based erosion model CATFLOW-SED was used. CATFLOW-SED is based on Richards Equation including an effective approach for preferential flow and the Saint-Venant-Equation to simulate soil water dynamics and overland flow / river flow. The erosion process is modeled using shear stress, the momentum balance of precipitation and a semi-empirical erosion resistance for predicting soil

  7. Linking field observations, Landsat and MODIS data to estimate agricultural change in European Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Beurs, K. M.; Ioffe, G.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural reform has been one of the most important anthropogenic change processes in European Russia that has been unfolding since the formal collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. Widespread land abandonment is perhaps the most vivid side effect of the reform, even visible in synoptic imagery. Currently, Russia is transitioning into a country with an internal "archipelago" of islands of productive agriculture around cities embedded in a matrix of unproductive, abandoned lands. This heterogeneous spatial pattern is mainly driven by depopulation of the least favorable parts of the countryside, where "least favorable" is a function of fertility, remoteness, and their interaction. In this work we provide a satellite, GIS and field based overview of the current agricultural developments in Russia and look beyond the unstable period immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. We apply Landsat images in one of Russia's oblasts to create a detailed land cover map. We then use a logistic model to link the Landsat land cover map with the inter-annual variability in key phenological parameters calculated from MODIS to derive the percent of cropland per 500m MODIS pixel. By evaluating the phenological characteristics of the MODIS curves for each year we determine whether a pixel was actually cropped or left fallow. A comparison of satellite-estimated cropped areas with regional statistics (by rayon) revealed that the satellite estimates are highly correlated with the regional statistics for both arable lands and successfully cropped areas. We use the crop maps to determine the number of times a particular area was cropped between 2002 and 2009 by summing all the years with crops per pixel. This variable provides a good indication about the intensification and de-intensification of the Russian croplands over the last decade. We have visited several rural areas in Russia and we link the satellite data with information acquired through field interviews

  8. Effects of high latitude protected areas on bird communities under rapid climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santangeli, Andrea; Rajasärkkä, Ari; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

    2017-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly becoming one of the main threats to biodiversity, along with other threats triggered by human-driven land-use change. Species are already responding to climate change by shifting their distributions polewards. This shift may create a spatial mismatch between dynamic species distributions and static protected areas (PAs). As protected areas represent one of the main pillars for preserving biodiversity today and in the future, it is important to assess their contribution in sheltering the biodiversity communities, they were designated to protect. A recent development to investigate climate-driven impacts on biological communities is represented by the community temperature index (CTI). CTI provides a measure of the relative temperature average of a community in a specific assemblage. CTI value will be higher for assemblages dominated by warm species compared with those dominated by cold-dwelling species. We here model changes in the CTI of Finnish bird assemblages, as well as changes in species densities, within and outside of PAs during the past four decades in a large boreal landscape under rapid change. We show that CTI has markedly increased over time across Finland, with this change being similar within and outside PAs and five to seven times slower than the temperature increase. Moreover, CTI has been constantly lower within than outside of PAs, and PAs still support communities, which show colder thermal index than those outside of PAs in the 1970s and 1980s. This result can be explained by the higher relative density of northern species within PAs than outside. Overall, our results provide some, albeit inconclusive, evidence that PAs may play a role in supporting the community of northern species. Results also suggest that communities are, however, shifting rapidly, both inside and outside of PAs, highlighting the need for adjusting conservation measures before it is too late. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Hydrogeology and potential effects of changes in water use, Carson Desert agricultural area, Churchill County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Douglas K.; Johnson, Ann K.; Welch, Alan H.

    1996-01-01

    Operating Criteria and Procedures for Newlands Project irrigation and Public Law 101-618 could result in reductions in surface water used for agriculture in the Carson Desert, potentially affecting ground-water supplies from shallow, intermediate, and basalt aquifers. A near-surface zone could exist at the top of the shallow aquifer near the center and eastern parts of the basin where underlying clay beds inhibit vertical flow and could limit the effects of changes in water use. In the basalt aquifer, water levels have declined about 10 feet from pre-pumping levels, and chloride and arsenic concentrations have increased. Conceptual models of the basin suggest that changes in water use in the western part of the basin would probably affect recharge to the shallow, intermediate, and basalt aquifers. Lining canals and removing land from production could cause water-level declines greater than 10 feet in the shallow aquifer up to 2 miles from lined canals. Removing land from production could cause water levels to decline from 4 to 17 feet, depending on the distribution of specific yield in the basin and the amount of water presently applied to irrigated fields. Where wells pump from a near-surface zone of the shallow aquifer, water level declines might not greatly affect pumping wells where the thickness of the zone is greatest, but could cause wells to go dry where the zone is thin.

  10. Rapid assessment of large scale vegetation change based on multi-temporal phenological analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Danlu; Guan, Yanning; Guo, Shan; Yan, Baoping; Xing, Zhi; Zhang, Chunyan; Piao, Yingchao; An, Xudong; Kang, Lihua

    2011-11-01

    Detecting vegetation change is critical for earth system and sustainability science. The existing methods, however, show several limitations, including inevitable selection of imagery acquisition dates, affection from vegetation related noise on temporal trajectory analysis, and assumptions due to vegetation classification model. This paper presents a multitemporal phenological frequency analysis over a relatively short period (MTPFA-SP) methodology to detect vegetation changes. This MTPFA-SP methodology bases on the amplitude components of fast Fourier transforming (FFT) and is implemented with two steps. First, NDVI time series over two periods are transformed with FFT into frequency domain, separately. Second, amplitude components with phenological information from Step 1 are selected for further change comparison. In this methodology, component selection shows physical meanings of natural vegetation process in frequency domain. Comparisons among those selected components help enhance the ability to rapidly detect vegetation changes. To validate this MTPFA-SP methodology, we detect changes between two periods (2001-2005 and 2006-2010) in the eastern Tibet Plateau area and make two kinds of assessments. The first is for a larger scale, including statistic analysis of altitudinal zonality and latitudinal zonality. The second assessment is for rapid detection of vegetation change location. Landsat TM image were employed to validate the result.

  11. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Trumbore, Susan

    1996-03-01

    THE climate system is capable of changing abruptly from one stable mode to another1-3. Rapid climate oscillations-in particular the Younger Dryas cold period during the last deglaciation-have long been recognized from records throughout the North Atlantic region4-14, and the distribution of these records at mostly high latitudes suggests that the changes were caused by rapid reorganizations of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation6,8,10,15. But events far from the North Atlantic region that are synchronous with the Younger Dryas16-19 raise the possibility that a more global forcing mechanism was responsible20. Here we present high-resolution records of laminated sediments of the last deglaciation from the Cariaco basin (tropical Atlantic Ocean) which show many abrupt sub-decade to century-scale oscillations in surface-ocean biological productivity that are synchronous with climate changes at high latitudes. We attribute these productivity variations to changes in or duration of up-welling rate (and hence nutrient supply) caused by changes in trade-wind strength, which is in turn influenced by the thermo-haline circulation through its effect on sea surface temperature6,21. Abrupt climate changes in the tropical Atlantic during the last deglaciation are thus consistent with a North Atlantic circulation forcing mechanism.

  12. Changes in nasal air flow and school grades after rapid maxillary expansion in oral breathing children

    OpenAIRE

    Torre, Hilda; Alarcón, Jose Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To analyse the changes in nasal air flow and school grades after rapid maxillary expansion (RME) in oral breathing children with maxillary constriction. Material and Methods: Forty-four oral breathing children (mean age 10.57 y) underwent orthodontic RME with a Hyrax screw. Forty-four age-matched children (mean age 10.64 y) with nasal physiological breathing and adequate transverse maxillary dimensions served as the control group. The maxillary widths, nasal air flow assessed via p...

  13. Environmental impacts of rapid water level changes; Miljoekonsekvenser av raske vannstandsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnekleiv, Jo Vegar; Bakken, Tor Haakon; Bogen, Jim; Boensnes, Truls Erik; Elster, Margrethe; Harby, Atle; Kutznetsova, Yulia; Saltveit, Svein Jakob; Sauterleute, Julian; Stickler, Morten; Sundt, Haakon; Tjomsland, Torulv; Ugedal, Ola

    2012-07-01

    This report summarizes the state of knowledge of the environmental impacts of power driving and rapid water level changes and describes possible mitigation measures. The report assesses the environmental effects of possible increased power installation in Mauranger and Tonstad power plants, based on existing data and knowledge. At Straumsmo plants in Barduelva there are collected some physical data and the environmental impact of existing power driving is considered. (eb)

  14. Economic Change and Environmental Issues: Policy Reforms and Concerns in Australian Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Tisdell, Clement A.

    2007-01-01

    Since the closing years of the 1980s, Australia has adopted structural adjustment policies designed to foster economic liberalism based on the market system. Today, there is little economic protection for Australian agriculture and Australia is a persistent advocate of free international agricultural trade. The natural Australian environment is not very favourable for agriculture because of low and erratic levels of rainfall and poor soils. Scarcity of water in Australia is growing and its us...

  15. Evaluation of rapid volume changes of substrate-adherent cells by conventional microscopy 3D imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudreault, F; Grygorczyk, R

    2004-09-01

    Precise measurement of rapid volume changes of substrate-adherent cells is essential to understand many aspects of cell physiology, yet techniques to evaluate volume changes with sufficient precision and high temporal resolution are limited. Here, we describe a novel imaging method that surveys the rapid morphology modifications of living, substrate-adherent cells based on phase-contrast, digital video microscopy. Cells grown on a glass substrate are mounted in a custom-designed, side-viewing chamber and subjected to hypotonic swelling. Side-view images of the rapidly swelling cell, and at the end of the assay, an image of the same cell viewed from a perpendicular direction through the substrate, are acquired. Based on these images, off-line reconstruction of 3D cell morphology is performed, which precisely measures cell volume, height and surface at different points during cell volume changes. Volume evaluations are comparable to those obtained by confocal laser scanning microscopy (DeltaVolume microscopy without the need for cell staining or intense illumination to monitor cell volume make this system a promising new tool to investigate the fundamentals of cell volume physiology.

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Technology Management in the Transylvanian Plain, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusu, Teodor; Ioana Moraru, Paula; Bogdan, Ileana; Ioan Pop, Adrian; Cacovean, Horea

    2013-04-01

    The impact of climate changes varies considerably in Europe, with different degrees of vulnerability. Romania is situated in an area with the lowest capacity to adapt to existing climate change and those that will occur, and the Transylvanian Plain (TP) is one of the most affected areas. In these conditions, the climate monitoring and implementation of measures to adapt to these changes are essential for sustainable development of agricultural technologies. The TP name comes from the Latin "silva" which means forest, namely an area covered with forests approximately 55-60% in the early nineteenth century, but today reached an average of 6.8% in the TP area. In time, the rugged terrain, deforestation, erosive slopes, and irrational agro technical practices for crop production altogether brought about the degradation of large areas of agricultural land, reducing its productivity. The degree of soil degradation in TP and climate change in recent years, have radically modified climatic conditions for cultural crops. Monitoring of temperature and water supply in TP aims to evaluate these two resources for agricultural production. The TP is a geographical region located in north-central Romania and it is bordered by large rivers to the north and south: the Somes and the Mures rivers. The altitude of the TP ranges from 231 to 662 m. TP, with an area of approx. 395,616 ha, includes areas of three counties (Cluj - CJ, Mures -MS, Bistrita-Nasaud - BN), has a predominantly agricultural character, and is characterized by hilly climate with oceanic influences, 9-100C average annual temperatures and 500-700 mm/year average annual precipitations. Monitoring the thermal and water supplies from TP was performed with twenty HOBO micro stations which determine the temperature (to a height of 1 m) and rainfalls same as temperature (at 10, 30, 50 cm depth in soil) and soil moisture (at 10 cm depth). Average precipitation recorded during 2009-2011, is 498.97 mm, which is beneath the

  17. Effects of Environmental Change on Carbon and Nitrogen Fluxes from a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riha, K. M.; Michalski, G.; Filley, T. R.; Dalzell, B. J.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change is expected to change precipitation patterns, which would alter the runoff of excess carbon and nitrogen into the surrounding waterways. If agricultural areas experience an increase in precipitation, then coastal areas downstream from these areas could expect to develop hypoxic conditions that are more widespread, continual, and severe causing loss of biodiversity in the ocean and economical loss to fishing industries. In the Midwest, these waterways feed into local drinking water reservoirs increasing the nitrate concentration and could easily surpass the EPA maximum nitrate concentration of 10ppm. In order to evaluate the damage to the environment due to excess nitrogen, and the possible gains by its mitigation, requires a thorough assessment of the environmental controls on nitrogen and carbon fluxes. To understand the extent of nitrogen and carbon runoff from agricultural ecosystems we are studying an 850 km2 Midwestern United States agricultural watershed located in west central Indiana. Previous studies by Dalzell et. al. examined organic carbon export from this watershed as a function of stream flow and precipitation events and observed shifts in the amount and type of carbon with season. We are interested in the nitrate concentration and how it couples with the carbon fluxes. Anions (Cl-, NO3-, and SO42-) were analyzed for the samples that were collected in 2002 and 2003. A correlation was seen between storm events, fertilizer application, and the nitrate runoff; with the highest nitrate concentration seen in April 2002 with a storm event. Recent fertilizer application is believed to be the cause. Cations were analyzed (Ca2+, Na+, K+, Fe2+, Mn2+ and Mg2+) to qualitatively determine a relationship between DOC and nitrate and determine possible flowpaths. Relationships were seen with storm events and cation fluxes, with highest concentrations seen in April 2002 during a storm event and a dilution peak seen in May 2002 which is characteristic of

  18. Rapid screening procedure to optimise the anaerobic codigestion of industrial biowastes and agricultural livestock wastes in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monou, M; Kythreotou, N; Fatta, D; Smith, S R

    2009-02-01

    Small-scale experimental investigations were undertaken on the anaerobic digestion (AD) and codigestion of livestock waste and industrial biowastes. A simple procedure was developed to rapidly determine the suitability of wastes for digestion. The experiment was split into two phases; initially, the seed (digested brewery waste) was replaced by the test waste over a period of 5 days. During the second phase, the test waste was incubated and monitored for methanogenesis. Dairy cattle slurry was the most efficient co-substrate which, when codigested with pig slurry in an equal ratio achieved volatile solids destruction of 32%, CH(4) production rate of 97.4 ml d(-1), maximum CH(4) content of 61.6% and total gas yield of 2229 ml after 529 h. High fat content wastes were unsuitable for AD due to low pH value and because the dominant microbial reaction was fermentation. Codigestion was investigated to overcome any inhibitions; however, dairy cattle slurry, abattoir wastewater and NaOH additions did not lead to methanogenesis. Treating these wastes by AD is feasible but without CH(4) production.

  19. Rapid Classification Of Agricultural Products Based On Their Electro-Optic Properties Using Near Infrared Reflectance And Chemometrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus A. Munawar

    2015-04-01

    Abstract. Aplikasi teknologi near infra red (NIR telah digunakan dalam banyak bidang, termasuk untuk bidang pertanian terutama pada proses sortasi dan grading. Keunggulan metode ini antara lain : rapid, efektif, simultan dan tanpa merusak objek yang dikaji. Tujuan utama dari studi ini adalah untuk mengkaji potensi NIR dalam mengklasifikasi beberapa produk pertanian berdasarkan karakteristik sifat elektro-optik dari produk tersebut. Spektrum NIR pada panjang gelombang 1000 – 2500 nm dengan increment 2 nm diakuisisi untuk produk pertanian : apel, pisang, manga, bawang putih, tomat, anggur hijau, anggur merah dan jeruk. Metode chemo metrics digunakan dalam studi ini untuk dikombinasikan dengan spektrum NIR. Klasifikasi produk pertanian dilakukan dengan menerapkan metode principal component analysis (PCA yang disertai dengan metode non-iterative partial least square (NIPALS cross validation. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi NIR dan chemo metrics mampu membedakan dan mengklasifikasi produk pertanian tersebut dengan menggunakan dua latent variable pada PCA (2 PCs dengan total explained variance 97% (88% PC1 dan 9% PC2. Selain itu, dari studi ini juga didapatkan bahwa perbaikan data spectrum dengan metode multiplicative scatter correction (MSC sebelum klasifikasi mampu meningkatkan akurasi hasil klasifikasi. Secara umum, dapat disimpulkan bahwa teknologi NIR dan chemo metrics dapat dijadikan sebagai metode yang efektif untuk sortasi dan atau grading produk pertanian.

  20. Linking carbon stock change from land-use change to consumption of agricultural products: A review with Indonesian palm oil as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goh, Chun Sheng; Wicke, Birka; Verstegen, Judith; Faaij, André; Junginger, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Numerous analyses have been performed to quantitatively link carbon stock change caused by land-use change (CSC-LUC) to consumption of agricultural products, but results differ significantly, even for studies focussing on the same region or product. This is due to the different focuses and